vs
+280 -305
UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley · Dec 14, 2024 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley Next Fight
Age 38
Height 6' 3"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 28
Height 6' 2"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Dustin Jacoby
5.4 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.92 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
0.32 TD Avg
25.0% TD Acc.
62.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Vitor Petrino
3.24 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
2.71 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
2.6 TD Avg
46.0% TD Acc.
79.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Dustin Jacoby
Moneyline
FanDuel +280
KO/TKO
FanDuel +750
Submission
FanDuel +2900
Decision
FanDuel +550
Vitor Petrino
Moneyline
DraftKings -305
KO/TKO
FanDuel +125
Submission
BetRivers +650
Decision
BetRivers +335
Dustin Jacoby - Fight History
WIN vs Julius Walker
KO R2 1:42 · UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Feb 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Jacoby 1 42 of 71 59% 47 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:59
Julius Walker 0 7 of 21 33% 12 of 26 3 of 7 42% 0 0 2:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Jacoby 0 13 of 20 65% 16 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Julius Walker 0 5 of 15 33% 10 of 20 3 of 6 50% 0 0 2:29
2 Dustin Jacoby 1 29 of 51 56% 31 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Julius Walker 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Jacoby 42 of 71 59% 35 of 64 3 of 3 4 of 4 22 of 38 9 of 10 11 of 23
Julius Walker 7 of 21 33% 3 of 17 1 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 12 2 of 7 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Jacoby 13 of 20 65% 7 of 14 3 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julius Walker 5 of 15 33% 3 of 13 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 6 2 of 7 1 of 2
2 Dustin Jacoby 29 of 51 56% 28 of 50 0 of 0 1 of 1 9 of 18 9 of 10 11 of 23
Julius Walker 2 of 6 33% 0 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Angelo picks Dustin Jacoby confidently, calling him too good of a striker and grappler with too much experience. He notes Jacoby's high-level kickboxing, technical striking, and solid takedown defense. He dismisses Julius Walker as sloppy and reliant on raw athleticism, and believes Jacoby will win easily. He hopes the odds are reasonable and will include Jacoby in parlays.

"Dustin Jacobe wins this fight. He's too good of a striker, too good of a grappler, has too much experience."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Big Brady picks Dustin Jacoby, citing his superior striking and elite takedown defense. He notes that Julius Walker was pieced up by Raphael Sakara on the feet, which bodes poorly against a much better striker in Jacoby. He expects Jacoby to knock out Walker, likely in the first round.

by first round knockout
"I think Jacobe knocks him out. I'm going to go into Dustin Jacobe here. I think it's a first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Cody hesitantly picks Dustin Jacoby, acknowledging the experience gap but noting Jacoby's travel and short notice. He admits his heart wants Walker but struggles to overlook Jacoby's experience. Cody does not bet on Jacoby and expects a competitive fight.

"I haven't bet Dustin Jacobe. Everything in my being tells me to bet Dustin Jacobe."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Jacobi is still dangerous with single shots and that Walker's style of walking in will give Jacobi opportunities. He thinks Jacobi will respond with offense if put in a scary situation, but the fight could be a grind. He calls it a sucky fight between two failed experiments.

Same odds discussion.
"I'm going to pick Jacobi here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Lucrative James picks Dustin Jacoby to win, citing his massive experience and striking advantage, as well as good takedown defense. However, he is hesitant due to Jacoby's age and potential chin decline. James notes that if Jacoby is an underdog, he would bet him, but he acknowledges Walker's grappling could be a threat.

"I'm gonna go with Dustin Jacobe for the win though, guys. And the reason is because he has too much of a experience advantage and a massive massive striking advantage and very good takedown defense."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

The host picks Jacoby by knockout, but notes reduced confidence due to Jacoby cornering a teammate in Australia a week before the fight. He believes Jacoby's superior striking and defensive grappling will allow him to pick Walker apart and eventually land a big shot. He expects Walker to struggle to get takedowns and be forced to strike, where Jacoby has the advantage.

knockout win
"So, give me Jacobe and Jacobe by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Julius Walker

Paul picks Julius Walker as a dog, citing Jacoby's short notice, travel from Australia, and age (37). He notes Walker's youth, athleticism, and improvement, especially his wrestling. Paul believes Walker can take Jacoby down and control the fight, though he admits bias due to connections.

"I am actually going to end up taking a dog play on Julius Walker. Not super confident."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2026 (fight day)
Dustin Jacoby

The host picks Dustin Jacoby over Julius Walker. He thinks Jacoby is underrated, citing his win over Vitor Petrino and competitive fight with Azamat Murzakanov. He notes Walker looked sloppy against Rafael Cacara. He predicts a decision win for Jacoby, 29-28 or 30-27.

decision 29-28 or 30-27
"I'm going to go with Jacoby. I think he's on a level another level of experience to Julius Walker."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Zane picks Jacoby because he is a good technical kickboxer who can finish with single shots. He notes that Walker is tough but walks in with his chin up and feet flat, making him vulnerable. However, he warns that Jacoby's hesitancy could make the fight ugly, similar to his fight against Alonzo Menifield.

Jacoby opened at -135, currently -185; Walker opened at +115, currently +160.
"I'm going to pick Dustin Jacobi."
WIN vs Bruno Lopes
KO R1 1:50 · UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · May 31, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Jacoby 1 17 of 29 58% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Bruno Lopes 0 3 of 9 33% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Jacoby 1 17 of 29 58% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Bruno Lopes 0 3 of 9 33% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Jacoby 17 of 29 58% 16 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1 11 of 21 6 of 8 0 of 0
Bruno Lopes 3 of 9 33% 1 of 4 1 of 2 1 of 3 2 of 7 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Jacoby 17 of 29 58% 16 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1 11 of 21 6 of 8 0 of 0
Bruno Lopes 3 of 9 33% 1 of 4 1 of 2 1 of 3 2 of 7 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 18, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Angelo picks Dustin Jacoby as the better striker with good takedown defense, but plants a seed of doubt about Jacoby's ability to handle forward pressure. He notes that Jacoby was losing to Vitor Petrino before a comeback KO, and that Bruno Lopes pressures forward well. He advises caution but believes Jacoby wins.

Warns against overexposure in parlays.
"I'm going to pick Dustin here because he is the better striker and he's got very good takedown defense."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Big Brady picks Dustin Jacoby, believing Bruno Lopes is reckless on the feet and leaves openings. He notes Lopes has a path via grappling but doubts he will use it, citing Lopes' tendency to stand and trade. Jacoby has good get-up game and is hard to hold down. Brady predicts Jacoby will clip Lopes and knock him out in the first round, as Jacoby has many first-round KOs.

first round knockout
"I'll go Dustin Jacobe here. And I think it's early. I think Dustin Jacobe gets a first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bruno Lopes

Connor also picks Lopes, citing that Jacoby's chin issues have made him hesitant and his game has lost its structure. Lopes, despite being a brawler, has a clear goal and is confident in his aggression. Connor notes that Jacoby used to be able to adjust to wrestlers, but now he seems aimless, making Lopes the safer pick.

"Yeah, also that Jacoby has historically had issues with wrestlers. Yeah. And, you know, he used to be able to adjust to that and, and, and start getting a read on the takedowns and doing a better job of enforcing …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Matt picks Dustin Jacoby to win by decision. He notes that Jacoby is a volume-based striker with good takedown defense, while Lopes is a BJJ black belt who struggles against better strikers. Jacoby should outwork Lopes on the feet, though his durability is a concern. Matt likes the decision prop at +250.

Jacoby by decision +250, Lopes by decision +480, Lopes by KO +400, fight goes to decision +125
"I'm going to pick Jacobe. I I think he wins this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 28, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

The MMA Guru picks Dustin Jacoby by TKO in rounds 2 or 3. He believes Jacoby's striking is too technical for Bruno Lopes, who has power but is less impressive. He notes Jacoby's good chin and ability to recover, and sees a kickboxing advantage. He predicts Jacoby will piece up Lopes after a shaky first round.

TKO in rounds 2 or 3
"I think Jacob is very underrated... I think he beats Bruno Lopez... I got Jacob by TKO in rounds two or three."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bruno Lopes

Zane picks Lopes because Jacoby's game has deteriorated significantly; he no longer fights with a clear plan, hesitates, and does wacky things like switching stances needlessly. Lopes, while limited, at least has a simple game plan of aggression, either brawling or pushing to the cage and looking for takedowns. Zane notes that Jacoby historically had issues with wrestlers, and his current indecisiveness makes him vulnerable to Lopes' pressure.

"I think I have to pick Lopez. Yeah. I think I'm kind of feeling that too. He at least want his, what his game still clearly at least seems to revolve around aggression, even if that aggression is just putting …"
WIN vs Vitor Petrino
KO (punch) R3 3:44 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley · Dec 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Jacoby 0 40 of 96 41% 40 of 96 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:40
Vitor Petrino 1 45 of 96 46% 47 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Jacoby 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Vitor Petrino 0 12 of 32 37% 12 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Dustin Jacoby 0 19 of 47 40% 19 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vitor Petrino 0 18 of 36 50% 18 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Dustin Jacoby 0 11 of 23 47% 11 of 23 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:38
Vitor Petrino 1 15 of 28 53% 17 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Jacoby 40 of 96 41% 27 of 79 6 of 7 7 of 10 40 of 96 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 45 of 96 46% 23 of 69 7 of 9 15 of 18 39 of 87 5 of 8 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Jacoby 10 of 26 38% 5 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 5 10 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 12 of 32 37% 5 of 22 1 of 2 6 of 8 8 of 25 4 of 7 0 of 0
2 Dustin Jacoby 19 of 47 40% 16 of 42 2 of 3 1 of 2 19 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 18 of 36 50% 8 of 24 3 of 4 7 of 8 18 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Dustin Jacoby 11 of 23 47% 6 of 18 2 of 2 3 of 3 11 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 15 of 28 53% 10 of 23 3 of 3 2 of 2 13 of 26 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Petrino because he hits hard and Jacoby's chin is declining. He notes Petrino's power, evolving grappling, and takedowns, while Jacoby is a high-level kickboxer with okay power and 60% takedown defense. He expresses concern about Petrino's smiling reaction after his submission loss to Anthony Smith, but believes it was a fluke. He thinks Jacoby could turn it into a dogfight but Petrino's power is the difference.

"I am going to pick patrino here because he hits so damn hard and Dustin's chin doesn't seem to be what it once was."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by decision. He thinks Petrino is younger, improving, and has more ways to win, including power and takedowns. He notes Jacoby has been dropped often and was recently knocked out by Reyes. He expects Petrino to mix in takedowns and land big shots, but not finish.

"I'll say patrino mixes in the takedowns maybe land some big shots here and there maybe drops jacobe because jacobe likes getting dropped but I'll say patrino does enough to win a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Cody picks Vitor Petrino but with low confidence, noting his poor gas tank and green technique. He believes Petrino will rely on takedowns and top control to win rounds, but Jacoby's striking advantage could be problematic. Cody suggests a live bet on Jacoby after the first round if Petrino tires.

Over 1.5 rounds (-167), fight goes to decision (+170)
"I'm willing to take the dog shot on Covington and Bruno Silva but I'm going to pass on this jacobe one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Connor picks Jacoby as well, agreeing that Petrino's new style is ineffective. He notes that Petrino's game is 'empty' and that Jacoby is a good outboxer who can take advantage. However, Connor also worries about Jacoby's durability, citing his knockout loss to Reyes and shaky moments against Alonzo Menifield.

Jacoby opened at +212, now +254; Petrino opened at -247, now -303
"I'm picking Jacobi as well, but, uh, odd that the odds are against him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Vreeland picks Vitor Petrino to get back on track after his loss to Anthony Smith. He acknowledges Dustin Jacoby's technical kickboxing but worries about Jacoby's durability and tendency to get hurt. Vreeland believes Petrino's freak athleticism and power can change the fight with one shot, even if he's being outpointed. He also notes Petrino can mix in takedowns if needed.

"I'm going go with vtor patrino to come out here and uh get back on track"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Lucrative James picks Vitor Petrino to win, citing Petrino's multiple paths to victory including knockout and grappling. He notes Jacoby's kickboxing background and takedown defense, but believes Petrino's physicality and raw power will be too much. He expresses low interest in betting the fight unless prop odds are wide, but confidently predicts Petrino as the winner.

"I do think berrino wins I do think he's the better fighter I think that he's got way more ways to win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino will crash the pocket effectively and land big shots on Jacoby, who struggles against opponents with big power. The finish is expected within the first two rounds.

wins in round 1 or 2
"I do believe patrino will be able to crash the pocket effectively here and that will allow him to land those big shots on jacobe who just can't seem to get out of the way of opponents with big Power …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Paul picks Dustin Jacoby as an underdog, citing Petrino's struggles against strikers and Jacoby's striking volume. He notes that Petrino's takedowns are his only path, but Jacoby's takedown defense and ability to get back up could neutralize that. Paul is surprised Petrino is such a big favorite.

"I'm surprised that he's such a big favorite like um there does seem to be some action coming in on the jacobe side."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

The MMA Guru picks Dustin Jacoby as an underdog, questioning why he is such a big underdog. He notes Jacoby's kickboxing experience and ability to invest in strikes, though he acknowledges Jacoby's chin has let him down. He believes Petrino's win over Smith was unimpressive (guillotine) and that Jacoby's layers and conditioning will give him an edge. He admits the oddsmakers might know something he doesn't.

underdog bet (implied odds comment)
"I'm going to go Dustin jacobe in his kickboxing experience being able to invest enough and do enough to patrino"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Zane picks Jacoby because Petrino has abandoned his effective bullying style for a technical out-fighting game that doesn't work. He notes that Petrino's recent losses to Anthony Smith and Tyson Pedro show he has no plan, and Jacoby should have plenty of time and space to outbox him. However, Zane is concerned about Jacoby's chin and age.

Jacoby opened at +212, now +254; Petrino opened at -247, now -303; Zane says the odds are 'too wide on Petrino'
"I'm still picking him against Vito Petrino, because Petrino's game as it stands right now is just empty."
LOSS vs Dominick Reyes
KO (punches) R1 2:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Jun 08, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dominick Reyes 2 20 of 33 60% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dustin Jacoby 0 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dominick Reyes 2 20 of 33 60% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dustin Jacoby 0 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dominick Reyes 20 of 33 60% 15 of 26 3 of 4 2 of 3 16 of 24 2 of 3 2 of 6
Dustin Jacoby 6 of 16 37% 1 of 7 0 of 1 5 of 8 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dominick Reyes 20 of 33 60% 15 of 26 3 of 4 2 of 3 16 of 24 2 of 3 2 of 6
Dustin Jacoby 6 of 16 37% 1 of 7 0 of 1 5 of 8 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Angelo picks Dustin Jacoby, believing Dominick Reyes is done after three knockout losses. He notes that Reyes hasn't won in years and his chin is compromised. Jacoby is a high-level kickboxer who can outpoint Reyes. He thinks the sport has passed Reyes by, and Jacoby's technical striking will be too much.

"I think Dustin jacobe wins this fight while he is a very high level technical kickboxer"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Big Brady picks Dustin Jacoby to win by decision with little confidence. He questions whether Dominick Reyes is washed, noting his losses to Jon Jones, Jan Blachowicz, and Jiri Prochazka are not bad, but the Ryan Spann KO is concerning. He thinks Jacoby might be the minute winner but has been disappointing in fights like the Menifield loss. He calls it a total pass and advises against betting.

"I'm taking Dustin jacobe to win this fight I'll take him to Win It by decision but I want nothing to do with this one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Cody picks Reyes as a greasy underdog, noting that Reyes has faced elite competition and his four-fight losing streak includes fights against Jon Jones (arguably a win), Jan Błachowicz, and Jiri Prochazka. He believes Reyes' power and durability could be a problem for Jacoby, who is a decision fighter prone to close losses. Cody thinks the year and a half off may have helped Reyes recover his chin, and he expects a close fight that could go Reyes' way via split decision.

Dominick Reyes to win by split or majority decision
"I have to take a couple greasy dogs and Rees is one of those greasy dogs so I'll take Dom Rees and just hope to God that the year off the couple years off the time off I should say …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Daniel is confident in Jacoby because he believes Reyes has never recovered mentally or physically from the Jon Jones fight, citing three brutal knockout losses and a diminished chin. He notes Jacoby is still competitive with top fighters and can point fight or knock out Reyes. He expects Jacoby to win by knockout, as Reyes' confidence is shattered.

knockout
"I think uh I think jacobe actually comes out here and knocks him out"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Jacob picks Dustin Jacoby, but he is rooting for Reyes. He thinks Jacoby's jab will wear down Reyes, who has a suspect chin. He notes that Jacoby isn't the most powerful, but his jab can set up a knockout. He warns that Reyes might get too comfortable and get caught. He expects Jacoby to win by decision or late stoppage.

"I think that jab is eventually just going to wear down Dominic ryes I'm going be rooting for him man I hope he comes through"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Jacoby is a technical striker with good range and output, while Reyes has durability issues and a long layoff. Jacoby should outland Reyes from distance and may knock him out, though Reyes has power of his own. The -225 line is a bit wide, but Jacoby by KO is the pick.

knockout
"I'm going to lean jacobe here minus 225 just makes me a little bit queasy... I'm going to lean Jobe by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Paul is tempted to bet Reyes but lacks the courage to pull the trigger. He notes Reyes' three consecutive knockout losses and questions his chin, while Jacoby tends to be in close fights. Paul thinks it's a pass from a betting perspective but might change his mind after weigh-ins.

"I am tempted to bet Dominic Reyes but like for what purpose like he's he's obviously shown that you know Ryan span knocking him out in the first round that's the other guys Yuri and and yon bovic two guys …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

The Guru says you can't pick Reyes until he proves you wrong, citing his losing streak and the damage he took from Yuri (orbital fracture, shattered nose). He likes Jacoby in a three-rounder because Reyes lacks finishing potential and is coming off TKO losses. He expects Jacoby to get started sooner, landing low kicks, jabs, and body shots, and win a decision (29-28 or 30-27). He also notes Jacoby beat Khalil Rountree in his eyes.

Decision win prediction; mentions 29-28 or 30-27 scorecards
"you can't pick Reyes until he proves you wrong... I'm going to say that jacobe wins a decision"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alonzo Menifield 1 68 of 117 58% 95 of 145 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:03
Dustin Jacoby 0 93 of 150 62% 113 of 171 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alonzo Menifield 0 14 of 30 46% 25 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Dustin Jacoby 0 28 of 44 63% 38 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:17
2 Alonzo Menifield 0 27 of 48 56% 28 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Dustin Jacoby 0 31 of 55 56% 31 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alonzo Menifield 1 27 of 39 69% 42 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:35
Dustin Jacoby 0 34 of 51 66% 44 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alonzo Menifield 68 of 117 58% 58 of 104 2 of 4 8 of 9 51 of 94 14 of 20 3 of 3
Dustin Jacoby 93 of 150 62% 69 of 122 15 of 18 9 of 10 78 of 135 15 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alonzo Menifield 14 of 30 46% 14 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0 12 of 25 2 of 5 0 of 0
Dustin Jacoby 28 of 44 63% 16 of 32 9 of 9 3 of 3 22 of 38 6 of 6 0 of 0
2 Alonzo Menifield 27 of 48 56% 20 of 39 0 of 1 7 of 8 25 of 44 2 of 4 0 of 0
Dustin Jacoby 31 of 55 56% 25 of 46 1 of 4 5 of 5 29 of 53 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Alonzo Menifield 27 of 39 69% 24 of 35 2 of 3 1 of 1 14 of 25 10 of 11 3 of 3
Dustin Jacoby 34 of 51 66% 28 of 44 5 of 5 1 of 2 27 of 44 7 of 7 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dustin Jacoby vs. Alonzo Menifield
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jacoby (-270), Menifield (+220)

Round 1
The preliminary headliner has changed on fight week, and it will now come between two light heavyweight strikers in what could be a real barnburner. Menifield (14-3-1, 7-3-1 UFC) is looking to push his unbeaten streak to five, and Jacoby (19-7-1, 7-4-1 UFC) wants to string some momentum together to make another run up the ladder. Referee Chris Tognoni dons his proverbial hard hat as these two men will be swinging with bad intentions for as long as it lasts. Before they swing for the fences, the 205ers bump their gloves together while nodding in excitement. Both men are cautious to engage for the first 25 seconds, until Menifield wings two hooks that both come up short. Menifield reaches out with a jab, and Jacoby answers him with one of his own. Menifield again misses with an overhand right, and Jacoby prods out a few more jabs to keep the power swinging Menifield at bay. Jacoby kicks the inside thigh and loops a left hand around the guard, and he ducks away from a huge strike from Menifield. Jacoby stays busy with jabs and leg kicks, and he keeps his guard high to block the worst of the blows. Menifield scores a single left hook, and Jacoby puts his foot on the gas and gives chase. Menifield just misses a right hand that bumps into the chest, and he swings for the bleachers with wide, inaccurate punches. Jacoby sees the majority of those home run strikes coming and is able to block or evade them, and he crowds Menifield until Menifield sprints at him in search of a takedown. Jacoby tosses him to the side and allows Menifield to stand back up, and he just blocks a left hook. Jacoby rings Menifield’s bell with a right hand, and he gets stung with a counter. Jacoby crowds his man, and Menifield welcomes the clinch and tries to turn him around or throw him to the floor. Jacoby stays on his feet and knees the body, as the two jockey for position from up close. Jacoby continues to press his weight on his opponent, and Menifield eventually turns him around and lands a single right hook. Jacoby does not like this, lines up a knee down the middle, and the slow round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jacoby
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Jacoby
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Jacoby

Round 2
The 205ers meet in the middle with a glove touch, and Jacoby gets right back into his jabbing groove. Menifield gets tired of playing the jab and miss game, and he bites down on his mouthpiece and drives out a straight left that blasts Jacoby in the face. Jacoby stumbles from one side of the cage to the other, but he manages to gather his thoughts when ricocheting off the fence before Menifield can pounce. Jacoby recovers, but Menifield drives home two fierce leg kicks that give him pause. Jacoby lands a few jabs, and Menifield tries his own and lands a leg kick on the inside. Jacoby takes the left hand flush and is no worse for wear, and he parries a second. Menifield cracks the former Glory kickboxer with a right hand, stunning him but not putting him down. Jacoby hands on tight and hurts Menifield with a counter. Menifield shakes it off and crashes forward, landing blazing hooks on the side of the head and making Jacoby briefly rethink his life decision leading to that point. Jacoby tries to fire back, but Menifield is on him throwing merciless punches. Jacoby bounces off the cage and looks to settle down with his rangy jab, but Menifield has found his range and connects with effective counters. Jacoby snaps the head back with a jab, and Menifield backpedals as his right eye begins to swell. Jacoby kicks low, and Menifield returns fire with a far heavier blow that force a stance switch. Jacoby whiffs on a head kick but rifles a jab down the middle, and Menifield dodges a follow-up punch and grazes the side of the head with a left hook. The two clash shins together, and Jacoby gets the worse of it. Jacoby attacks, and Menifield meets him with his own punches until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Menifield
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Menifield
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Jacoby

Round 3
There is a final glove touch to begin the last round. Jacoby flashes out a leg kick, and Menifield is right there to counter him. Jacoby lines up several jabs, and Menifield dodges to the side to avoid most of them but not all. Menifield comes back with an overhand right, and he hops away to avoid a leg kick. Menifield loads up on a big left hook, and Jacoby tanks it and prods out a front kick. Jacoby snipes his man with a one-two, and when Menifield comes up short, Jacoby lands another. Menifield draws his foe into a short firefight, and he bangs a left hook off the temple of “The Hanyak.” Jacoby skillfully lands jab after jab, busting Menifield’s nose up and connecting in great numbers. Menifield gets sick of eating those punches, and he knocks Jacoby clean off his feet with a thunderous left hook. Jacoby falls to his seat, and Menifield tries to seal the deal with several clubbing undercuts beneath Jacoby’s armpit. Jacoby muscles his way back to his feet, and Menifield beats on him with a long series of punches and uppercuts. Jacoby tries to fire back, and Menifield drops down and hits a takedown to put the former kickboxer on his seat. Menifield connects with several jackhammering punches until Jacoby forces Menifield to fall off him and explode back up. The two stay tight in the clinch, and Jacoby considers a takedown that is thwarted. Menifield turns the tables, dropping down for a single, and he bails on it when Tognoni tells him to stay busy. Jacoby looks for inside or outside trips, and Menifield keeps his balance with his back to the wire. Menifield turns him around and knees him in the belly, and he gains enough space to wing a right hand that hurts Jacoby. Menifield gives chase and clubs Jacoby in the face with a pair of hooks, and the bloody battle comes to a conclusion when time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Menifield (29-28 Menifield)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Menifield (29-28 Menifield)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Menifield (29-28 Jacoby)

The Official Result
Alonzo Menifield def. Dustin Jacoby via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Angelo leans Dustin Jacoby due to his superior kickboxing, noting he was once ranked #2 in the world. He acknowledges Menifield's power and Jacoby's recent vulnerability to being dropped, but believes the technical striking advantage will prevail. He is undecided on betting.

Undecided on betting; concerned about Menifield's power
"I'm gonna lean jacobe here... Dustin's going to be the pick I'm still deciding if I trust him enough to bet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Big Brady picks Dustin Jacoby to win by decision, citing Jacoby's advantages in age, height, striking volume, and cardio. He notes Menifield's inconsistency and poor performances, and believes Menifield's only path is a knockout, which is unlikely given Jacoby's chin (only 1 KO loss in 27 fights). Brady expects Jacoby to use his kicks and volume to outpoint Menifield over three rounds, similar to his fight against Khalil Rountree.

"I'm kind of leaning more towards a decision here for Dustin jacobe though I think he plays this fight smart sticks to the outside use his kicks us his volume and just picks apart Alonzo manafield across 15 minutes"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Cody picks Jacoby, agreeing that he is the better striker with superior cardio. He notes that Menifield's wins are over lower-level competition and that Jacoby has fought at a higher level. Cody believes Jacoby will outwork Menifield and potentially get a late TKO or decision. He acknowledges the risk of Menifield's power but thinks Jacoby's volume and experience will prevail.

"Justin job's fighting at a higher level he appears to have the better skill set he has the better cardio it's Striker versus Striker and he's a better Striker yeah he's the pick"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not have a strong read on this fight. He feels Dustin Jacoby should win by decision, but he has a nagging feeling that Alonzo Menifield could catch him early with power. He considers it a pass fight, though he mentions that Menifield inside the distance at big odds might be worth a small play.

Maybe Alonzo KO at +700 or similar.
"I don't feel like I mean I don't feel like Dustin will really finish Manfield though... that's a pass fight for me."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

The host picks Jacoby but thinks the minus 270 line is too wide against a dangerous fighter like Menifield. He praises Jacoby's technical striking, footwork, and precision, and believes he can keep Menifield at bay with kicks and combinations. He notes that Menifield has improved his cardio and clinch work but still expects Jacoby to outpoint him. He suggests a nibble on Jacoby by decision prop.

Jacoby by decision
"I'm still going to go with jacobe here though the minus 270 too wide I'm I'm going to I'm going to pass on that line um I might take a nibble on jacobe by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Paul picks Jacoby, stating that the price looks better than other big favorites on the card. He notes that Jacoby is a better striker with Glory kickboxing experience and has remarkable cardio. He believes Menifield will start hot but fade, and Jacoby will dissect him with volume and potentially get a late TKO or decision. Paul acknowledges Menifield's power but thinks Jacoby's skill set is superior.

"I'm on the camp with Dustin jacobe here and I think the price looked a lot better earlier in the week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

The Guru picks Dustin Jacoby over Alonzo Menifield, calling Jacoby one of the most underrated light heavyweights. He highlights Jacoby's impressive wins (e.g., Khalil Rountree, Anthony Smith) and takedown defense. He argues that if Menifield couldn't finish Jimmy Crute on the feet, he won't finish Jacoby. He predicts Jacoby will pick Menifield apart and win by decision or TKO.

Jacoby by decision (30-27) or TKO in round 2
"I'm going with Dustin Jacob I think he's one of the most underrated like heavyweights that's on the roster right now... I'm definitely going to go if Jacob be picking apart Alonzo manyfield and maybe getting a TKO at some …"
TKO (punches) R1 1:22 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Font · Aug 05, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Jacoby 1 10 of 33 30% 10 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Kennedy Nzechukwu 0 4 of 18 22% 4 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Jacoby 1 10 of 33 30% 10 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Kennedy Nzechukwu 0 4 of 18 22% 4 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Jacoby 10 of 33 30% 5 of 28 0 of 0 5 of 5 10 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 7
Kennedy Nzechukwu 4 of 18 22% 3 of 14 0 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Jacoby 10 of 33 30% 5 of 28 0 of 0 5 of 5 10 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 7
Kennedy Nzechukwu 4 of 18 22% 3 of 14 0 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Angelo picks Kennedy Nzechukwu despite acknowledging Dustin Jacoby is the better striker. He notes that Kennedy is bigger, more dangerous, and has fought higher competition. He warns that Kennedy is never out of a fight and can come from behind, but also mentions that Jacoby was dropped in his last fight, which is concerning. Angelo admits he would love Jacoby as an underdog if not for that, but ultimately goes with Kennedy's danger factor.

"the pick's gonna be Kennedy but I'm going to be rooting for Dustin"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Big Brady is uncertain but leans toward Nzechukwu. He argues that if Nzechukwu strikes with Jacoby he'll lose, but his path to victory is wrestling. He notes Nzechukwu's takedown defense is good and his grappling has improved, as seen in recent fights. He thinks Nzechukwu can take Jacoby down and control him, especially since Jacoby has been taken down many times before. He predicts a decision win but admits Nzechukwu fights are hard to predict.

Nzechukwu by decision
"I'll pick him to win by decision but the more I think about this one the more I don't feel amazing about it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Cody leans towards Nzechukwu on the moneyline, but his main interest is a small poke on Kennedy by submission at +950. He believes Kennedy will rely on grappling and can submit Jacoby, who has faced few grapplers. He notes Jacoby's kickboxing base and cardio, but thinks Kennedy's improvements in grappling and size could be decisive.

Kennedy by submission +950 (small poke)
"I see like a plus 950 on Kennedy by sub... I'm probably gonna take a little small poke on that"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

Daniel Levi leans toward Kennedy Nzechukwu but is not confident. He acknowledges Jacoby's striking credentials and past success, but worries about Jacoby's age (35-36) and potential decline. Levi notes Nzechukwu's physical advantages (7-inch reach, southpaw) and his knack for comebacks, but also his slow starts and durability concerns. He sees this as a dog-or-pass situation and prefers Nzechukwu at the current price, though he would have picked Jacoby two years ago.

Mentions that he would take a comeback at dog odds but not at -150. No specific prop bet.
"I'm gonna lean Kennedy but it's a tough fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

James changed his mind after tape. He thinks Nzechukwu is younger, more athletic, and on an upward trajectory while Jacoby is declining. Nzechukwu's height and reach advantage will disrupt Jacoby's outside kickboxing game. He expects Nzechukwu to force pressure, clinch, and possibly finish inside the distance.

inside the distance
"I think Kennedy will win this fight... probably even inside the distance."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Jacoby loves combination striking, leg kicks, and body work. He had a 6-1-1 run until a split decision loss to Khalil Rountree and a bad KO loss. If he can stay safe and not get dropped, he should outpoint Nzechukwu, who is explosive but wears down. Jacoby's durability is a concern, but I'm sticking with Jacoby as a dog shot. He wins by decision.

"I'm going to stick with Jacoby here's the dog shot I think he's worth the play here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Paul takes Jacoby at plus money, citing his volume, leg kicks, and takedown defense. He notes Kennedy's suspect cardio and tendency to get rocked, and believes Jacoby can outland him in a kickboxing match. However, he acknowledges Jacoby's fights are often close decisions and only takes him at plus money.

"I'll take a dog poke here at Dustin Jacoby at the slight plus money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kennedy Nzechukwu

The host picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, citing his youth (31), durability, and recent momentum. He believes Nzechukwu will out-volume Jacoby and has a granite chin. He notes Jacoby is 35 and coming off a loss. He thinks Nzechukwu wins by decision but could finish. He warns that if the line goes above -165, value shifts to Jacoby.

line opened -126, now -156; suggests decision win for Nzechukwu; value on Jacoby if line exceeds -165
"I gotta lean Kennedy and shaku in the spot"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen · Apr 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Azamat Murzakanov 0 64 of 131 48% 96 of 167 1 of 6 16% 0 0 3:06
Dustin Jacoby 1 67 of 127 52% 70 of 130 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Azamat Murzakanov 0 19 of 39 48% 19 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dustin Jacoby 0 25 of 50 50% 25 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:12
2 Azamat Murzakanov 0 21 of 40 52% 37 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:17
Dustin Jacoby 1 26 of 45 57% 29 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
3 Azamat Murzakanov 0 24 of 52 46% 40 of 72 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:49
Dustin Jacoby 0 16 of 32 50% 16 of 32 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Azamat Murzakanov 64 of 131 48% 36 of 95 8 of 12 20 of 24 60 of 126 4 of 5 0 of 0
Dustin Jacoby 67 of 127 52% 51 of 110 12 of 13 4 of 4 64 of 122 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Azamat Murzakanov 19 of 39 48% 8 of 24 2 of 4 9 of 11 19 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Jacoby 25 of 50 50% 20 of 44 4 of 5 1 of 1 25 of 48 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Azamat Murzakanov 21 of 40 52% 12 of 27 2 of 4 7 of 9 20 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
Dustin Jacoby 26 of 45 57% 20 of 39 5 of 5 1 of 1 24 of 43 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Azamat Murzakanov 24 of 52 46% 16 of 44 4 of 4 4 of 4 21 of 48 3 of 4 0 of 0
Dustin Jacoby 16 of 32 50% 11 of 27 3 of 3 2 of 2 15 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Angelo picks Dustin Jacoby as the better technical striker, noting he was ranked 2nd in the world in kickboxing. However, he is not betting because Jacoby lacks power and Murzakanov hits very hard and has comeback KO power. He expects Jacoby to need to point-fight perfectly for 15 minutes to win, which is risky.

"Dustin's gonna be the pick but I'm not gonna bet him because he's gonna have to point fight his way to a win here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Big Brady picks Dustin Jacoby to win by decision. He cites Jacoby's size, reach, and volume advantages, as well as his good takedown defense and chin. He doubts Murzakanov's cardio and ability to take Jacoby down, and believes Jacoby will outpoint him over three rounds. He notes Murzakanov's power but thinks Jacoby can absorb it.

"give me a Dustin Jacoby to win this fight give me Dustin Jacoby to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Cody notes Murzakanov is a first-round finisher but low volume, while Jacoby throws high volume (120+ strikes). He thinks Jacoby's reach and cardio will be key, and that Murzakanov's power shots may not be enough to overcome Jacoby's output. He prefers to bet Jacoby live after the first round.

Live bet after first round
"I would take Justin Jacoby but these are big boys that are going to be largely in a striking Affair"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Connor also picks Jacoby, agreeing that Murzakanov's power-punching style is ill-suited for Jacoby's rangey, technical approach. He notes that Jacoby is durable and has only been knocked out by elite punchers like King Mo and Alex Pereira. Connor believes Murzakanov's lack of combination punching and setup will leave him vulnerable to Jacoby's consistent output and counter-striking.

"I came to the same conclusion. I'm just not that impressed with Azamat Murzakanov."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Jacoby's range, footwork, and kicks will keep Murzakanov at distance. Murzakanov's cardio and wrestling are questionable, and he tends to fade. Jacoby's disciplined striking and cardio advantage should lead to a clear decision victory. Murzakanov is difficult to finish, so expect a full 15 minutes.

Fight goes to decision
"I think we see Dustin Jacoby control his fight pretty easily from his kicks and utilizing his range and his height Advantage."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Paul sides with Jacoby's volume and reach advantage (5 inches). He notes Murzakanov may be undersized at 205 and that Jacoby's output should overwhelm him. He agrees with Cody that the live market may offer better value.

"I'll side with the volume again I'm going to decide with the the numbers and Jacoby's got a five inch reach advantage"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

The MMA Guru picks Dustin Jacoby to win by unanimous decision, citing Jacoby's length, footwork, and striking output. He warns Jacoby must avoid a war and use leg kicks from the outside to outpoint Murzakanov, who has fight-ending power but slow starts. He notes the -190 line is a bit high and would prefer -170, but still sides with Jacoby.

Jacoby wins by decision
"Dustin Jacoby will be the pick"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Zane picks Jacoby, citing his volume, durability, and technical kickboxing as too much for Murzakanov. He notes that Murzakanov is a one-dimensional power puncher who relies on timing and rhythm changes, but Jacoby's jab, kicks, and counter-punching will keep him at range. Zane also points out that Murzakanov's wins have come against lower-level competition, while Jacoby has proven himself against tougher opponents like Khalil Rountree.

"I think Jacoby's volume here carries the day."
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · Oct 29, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 120 of 255 47% 122 of 257 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:05
Dustin Jacoby 0 85 of 237 35% 88 of 241 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 34 of 66 51% 35 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Dustin Jacoby 0 20 of 57 35% 22 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 39 of 105 37% 40 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Dustin Jacoby 0 35 of 88 39% 36 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 47 of 84 55% 47 of 84 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Dustin Jacoby 0 30 of 92 32% 30 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khalil Rountree Jr. 120 of 255 47% 69 of 194 27 of 34 24 of 27 116 of 250 4 of 5 0 of 0
Dustin Jacoby 85 of 237 35% 49 of 193 18 of 23 18 of 21 80 of 231 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khalil Rountree Jr. 34 of 66 51% 12 of 38 12 of 16 10 of 12 34 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Jacoby 20 of 57 35% 11 of 44 3 of 4 6 of 9 19 of 55 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Khalil Rountree Jr. 39 of 105 37% 30 of 93 5 of 7 4 of 5 39 of 105 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Jacoby 35 of 88 39% 20 of 72 7 of 8 8 of 8 35 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Khalil Rountree Jr. 47 of 84 55% 27 of 63 10 of 11 10 of 10 43 of 79 4 of 5 0 of 0
Dustin Jacoby 30 of 92 32% 18 of 77 8 of 11 4 of 4 26 of 88 4 of 4 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Big Brady picks Khalil Rountree Jr. to win by knockout, but admits it's a tough fight to call due to Rountree's inconsistency. He notes that if the best version of Rountree shows up, he can knock out Jacoby, who has been dropped before. He mentions the smaller cage favors Rountree's pressure. However, he acknowledges that Jacoby is the better striker and could easily outpoint Rountree if the inconsistent version appears.

Rountree wins by knockout
"give me round three to pull off the upset and knock out Dustin Jacoby in this matchup"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Cody picks Dustin Jacoby, citing his Glory kickboxing experience, superior cardio, and technical striking. He notes that Jacoby has shown durability (surviving knockdowns against Max Grisham) and should win on volume if he doesn't get knocked out. Cody acknowledges Khalil Rountree's power and potential but believes Jacoby's kickboxing skills will prevail in a 15-minute striking battle.

"I mean that practical fight kind of leaves me to believe that like Jacoby at -160 doesn't seem like a Bad Bet"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Daniel Levi picks Dustin Jacoby, citing his consistency, kickboxing experience (Glory), and titanium plate in his forearm that adds power. He acknowledges Khalil Rountree's knockout power and inconsistency, but trusts Jacoby's process. He is not betting due to the risk of Rountree's power, but picks Jacoby to win.

"Give me Jacoby For the Win not interested in betting it but my pick will be Jacoby."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Jacob is confident in Dustin Jacoby, calling him a real deal striker with great kickboxing. He acknowledges Rountree's power and inconsistency but believes technique wins. Jacoby can defend takedowns and should outpoint Rountree, though he admits bias.

"my official pick for this matchup is my dude Dustin Jacoby"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Jacoby's disciplined striking, footwork, and distance management will neutralize Rountree's power. Rountree's confidence is high but he struggles against technical strikers. Jacoby has more paths to victory and should win a decision. A small one-unit bet on Jacoby is recommended.

Jacoby by decision
"I like the favorite here I think it's a perfectly priced fight I don't mind a small shot here on uh Jacoby to even just win one unit"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Paul is tempted by Khalil Rountree as a plus-money underdog, noting his sheer power and aggression. He mentions that when Rountree is in shape and motivated (as seen against Modestas Bukauskas and Karl Roberson), he can be dangerous. Paul says he needs to see the weigh-ins and dig into Rountree's personal life before deciding, but considers Rountree the most live underdog on the card.

"I'm super nervous on this one like uh in terms of which Underdog have we talked about so far that I would like the most is cool around tree listen if you're gonna give him plus money with what he …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

The MMA Guru picks Dustin Jacoby over Khalil Rountree, noting that Rountree's wins are against low-level opponents and he lost to Marcin Prachnio, who Jacoby should outperform. He highlights Jacoby's kickboxing credentials, reach, and chin, and believes Jacoby will fight on the outside, avoid Rountree's power, and win by 30-27 decision. He expects Rountree to have moments but fade.

"I'm gonna go if Dustin Jacob be winning this fight by a 30-27 decision"
Vitor Petrino - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 0 92 of 161 57% 92 of 162 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:17
Steven Asplund 1 61 of 158 38% 73 of 172 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 19 of 37 51% 19 of 38 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:23
Steven Asplund 1 20 of 45 44% 32 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
2 Vitor Petrino 0 34 of 52 65% 34 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:54
Steven Asplund 0 14 of 50 28% 14 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Vitor Petrino 0 39 of 72 54% 39 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Steven Asplund 0 27 of 63 42% 27 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 92 of 161 57% 59 of 126 18 of 18 15 of 17 92 of 160 0 of 1 0 of 0
Steven Asplund 61 of 158 38% 48 of 140 4 of 8 9 of 10 58 of 154 1 of 2 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 19 of 37 51% 14 of 32 2 of 2 3 of 3 19 of 36 0 of 1 0 of 0
Steven Asplund 20 of 45 44% 14 of 39 3 of 3 3 of 3 17 of 41 1 of 2 2 of 2
2 Vitor Petrino 34 of 52 65% 25 of 42 3 of 3 6 of 7 34 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steven Asplund 14 of 50 28% 12 of 45 1 of 3 1 of 2 14 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Vitor Petrino 39 of 72 54% 20 of 52 13 of 13 6 of 7 39 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steven Asplund 27 of 63 42% 22 of 56 0 of 2 5 of 5 27 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Steven Asplund

Angelo picks Steven Asplund despite being an underdog. He criticizes Vitor Petrino's lack of killer instinct and fight IQ, and believes Asplund's incredible cardio, durability, and forward pressure will break Petrino. He notes that Petrino is more athletic and technical, but Asplund's willpower and toughness will be the difference. He is not betting on it due to heavyweight unpredictability.

"I'm going to pick Stephen Aspun here. ... I gotta go with the guy who changed his life through hard work and determination."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by first-round submission. He is a fan of Asplund but worries about his takedown defense, citing the Don'Tale Mayes fight where he was dominated. He believes Petrino's wrestling and strength will be too much, and if Asplund hasn't improved his grappling, Petrino will finish him quickly.

"give me Vita Petrino to win this fight and win it by first round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Steven Asplund

Cody picks Asplund as a dog, citing Petrino's poor cardio, questionable chin, and broken hand. He notes Asplund's volume and durability, and thinks he can outwork Petrino and potentially finish him late.

"I got I got Ask one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Connor picks Petrino, agreeing that being at heavyweight has emboldened him to be the powerful guy he was at light heavyweight. He notes that the speed of opponents at light heavyweight may have freaked him out, but now he feels like a god against slower heavyweights.

Odds: Petrino opened at -250, currently -260; Asplund opened at +210, currently +220.
"I'll take Patrino to. He may not feel like the dad energy, but he's got the power and being at heavyweight does seem to have emboldened him."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

James picks Vitor Petrino to win by submission, highlighting his black belt in BJJ and Asplund's only loss coming by submission. He notes Petrino's grappling advantage and Asplund's tendency to give up his neck. He mentions a possible hand injury for Petrino but still expects a submission win.

"I'm going to pick VTO Petrino via submission as my official prediction in this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The host picks Petrino to win by submission, citing his power and grappling advantage. He expects Petrino to take Asplund down and find a finish, noting that Asplund's lack of athleticism and strength will be exploited. He acknowledges Asplund's cardio could be a factor in deeper waters, but believes Petrino's early power will be decisive.

Petrino by submission
"I like Patrino here. I don't mind him at chalk. I'll be curious to see what the submission prop sits at... I like Patrino here and I'm going to take him to win this fight by submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Paul leans Petrino but is not confident. He notes Petrino's grappling and power, but acknowledges his cardio issues and the broken hand narrative. He thinks Petrino can get takedowns and control, but it's risky.

"I think his takedown defense is there to get exploited and I expect Patrino as long as he doesn't get his head knocked off in the first few exchanges."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Vitor Petrino

The Guru picks Vitor Petrino, despite liking Asplund's style. He thinks Petrino's grappling will be the difference, as Asplund may struggle to escape bottom position. He predicts a submission win, possibly an arm triangle or rear naked choke, noting Petrino's success in his debut.

Prediction: submission win (arm triangle or rear naked choke)
"I'm going to go with Vitor Petrino... I think he'll get a submission win."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Zane picks Petrino, noting that the heavyweight move seems to be working for him and he is an athletic lightyear ahead of Asplund. He describes Asplund as a volume striker who gets hammered and has already lost to Denzel Freeman regionally.

Odds: Petrino opened at -250, currently -260; Asplund opened at +210, currently +220.
"I'm going to pick Patrino because the heavyweight move seems like it's working for him so far and he is an athletic lightyear ahead of Steve Asplund."
KO R3 0:26 · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Oct 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 2 31 of 54 57% 33 of 61 1 of 6 16% 0 0 3:03
Thomas Petersen 0 16 of 35 45% 41 of 62 0 of 8 0% 0 0 2:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 1 13 of 20 65% 15 of 27 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:42
Thomas Petersen 0 1 of 5 20% 22 of 27 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:58
2 Vitor Petrino 0 14 of 28 50% 14 of 28 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:20
Thomas Petersen 0 13 of 28 46% 17 of 33 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:08
3 Vitor Petrino 1 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Thomas Petersen 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 31 of 54 57% 25 of 46 5 of 7 1 of 1 13 of 29 9 of 12 9 of 13
Thomas Petersen 16 of 35 45% 7 of 25 9 of 10 0 of 0 13 of 29 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 13 of 20 65% 13 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 3 of 4 7 of 10
Thomas Petersen 1 of 5 20% 0 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Vitor Petrino 14 of 28 50% 8 of 21 5 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 19 6 of 8 0 of 1
Thomas Petersen 13 of 28 46% 7 of 21 6 of 7 0 of 0 11 of 24 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Vitor Petrino 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2
Thomas Petersen 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Vitor Petrino, believing he is better everywhere except for pure grit. He thinks Vitor can find a finish, but acknowledges the risk of Thomas Petersen grinding out a win if he gets top position. He is undecided on betting due to Vitor's lack of true heavyweight size and the possibility of being controlled on the ground.

"I do think Vitor is better everywhere except just pure American grit and toughness. I think he gets Thomas Petersen out of there."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by second-round knockout. He notes Petrino has filled out at heavyweight and put on muscle, and believes he will win because many heavyweights are not great. He thinks Petersen is more skilled than shown but won't outwrestle or outstrike Petrino. Brady leans toward a knockout, saying Petrino will touch Petersen's chin.

knockout
"I'm leaning knockout for VTO Petrino. I'll say he does touch the chin of Thomas Peterson. We'll say second round knockout for Vtorrino here."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Thomas Petersen

Cody picks Petersen as well, noting Petrino's history of underperforming as a favorite. He highlights Petrino's low volume and poor wrestling, while Petersen is a better wrestler and throws more volume. He expects a close fight but sees value in the underdog.

"I'm going Pison as well, but because it's in Brazil and I know Thomas Patterson really isn't a world beater by any stretch, it likely is the PRP pick this week all the way at the bottom."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Lucrative James picks Vitor Petrino by KO, but is not confident due to Petrino's chin issues and the -310 price. He notes Petrino's power advantage and Petersen's poor striking defense. He acknowledges Petersen's wrestling and cardio could grind out a decision, but sees a knockout as most likely. He mentions he might bet against his pick with a Petersen decision longshot.

Vitor Petrino by KO (+140), Thomas Petersen by decision (+600)
"I'm going to pick VTO Petrino via KO, but I don't love the pick and I'm definitely not in love with the price tag at minus 310."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Thomas Petersen

Manpreet picks Petersen as an underdog, believing that if Petersen can avoid Petrino's early knockout power, his wrestling and cardio will take over. He notes Petersen's dominant performance against Mayes and expects him to wear Petrino down, potentially finishing in round three. He loves the plus 260 line and also considers the round three prop.

Petersen round three TKO (+1500); Petersen by decision (+550)
"I'd rather lean on that prop rather than taking the money line on Petrino, but at the end of the day, I'm going to lean Peterson here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Thomas Petersen

Paul picks Petersen as a dog, citing Petrino's poor wrestling and low volume. He notes Petersen's wrestling credentials and durability, and believes he can outwork Petrino. He calls it a 'dog or pass' fight.

"For me, it's Dogger Pass. Thomas Peterson, where are you at with this fight?"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino over Thomas Petersen, citing Petrino's size, power, and grappling skills. He notes Petersen is out of shape and Petrino showed good jiu-jitsu in his last fight. He predicts a TKO finish in the first round.

TKO in round 1
"I'm going to go with Vtor Patino. TKO finish in the first round over Thomas Peterson."
WIN vs Austen Lane
Submission R1 4:16 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Jul 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 0 3 of 6 50% 17 of 22 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:03
Austen Lane 0 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 3 of 6 50% 17 of 22 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:03
Austen Lane 0 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 3 of 6 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4
Austen Lane 3 of 4 75% 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 3 of 6 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4
Austen Lane 3 of 4 75% 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Vitor Petrino despite moving up to heavyweight, citing Austen Lane's lack of chin and reliance on grappling. He thinks Petrino's physicality and athleticism will be enough to win, but he despises the -700 odds. He notes Petrino was winning his last fight before getting knocked out, and Lane is chinny.

Despises -700 odds.
"Vtor Patino is going to be the pick. I absolutely despise these minus 700 odds."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady is confident in Vitor Petrino, noting that Austen Lane has been brutally knocked out multiple times and is 37 with a history of concussions. He believes Petrino will knock out Lane in hilarious fashion. He expresses concern for Lane's health and hopes this is his last fight.

first round knockout
"Give me Vito Petrino by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Connor picks Petrino easily, calling Austen Lane a person who should not be fighting—he closes his eyes when striking and gets hurt badly every time he trades. He notes that Petrino is moving up to heavyweight but is still a competent wrestler, unlike Robles de Spain who Lane beat. Connor believes this fight says nothing about Petrino's prospects but is a clear win.

"You got to pick Patrino. ... Austin Lane is just, yeah, you said he's the guy who closes his eyes when he has to strike."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The host expects Petrino's power to translate to heavyweight and that he will eventually clip Lane and put him away. However, he advises against betting Petrino at -700, indicating the odds are too steep. The pick is based on Petrino's power and Lane's recent knockout losses.

would not bet at -700
"Petrino going up away class now to the heavyweight division. And we'll see in this fight if his power will translate, especially with Lane being knocked out and a few of his last losses. I think Patrino can eventually clip …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino, citing Austen Lane's history of being knocked out (by Greg Hardy, Junior Tafa, Mario Pinto) and his poor striking defense with hands down. He expects Petrino's check hook to catch Lane as he darts in, leading to a first-round TKO. He also notes Petrino's decent scrambles on the ground, unlike Lane's vulnerability.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with Vtor Patino getting this one done by early TKO over Austin Lane KO in the first round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Zane agrees, calling Lane a 'fundamentally not a fighter' who takes severe damage. He notes that Petrino, despite his flaws, is a competent wrestler and athlete who should handle Lane easily. Zane criticizes the UFC for keeping Lane, comparing it to the Connor Matthews situation.

"Austin Lane is fundamentally a person that should not be doing this. ... So you got to pick Patrino."
LOSS vs Dustin Jacoby
KO (punch) R3 3:44 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley · Dec 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Jacoby 0 40 of 96 41% 40 of 96 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:40
Vitor Petrino 1 45 of 96 46% 47 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Jacoby 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Vitor Petrino 0 12 of 32 37% 12 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Dustin Jacoby 0 19 of 47 40% 19 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vitor Petrino 0 18 of 36 50% 18 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Dustin Jacoby 0 11 of 23 47% 11 of 23 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:38
Vitor Petrino 1 15 of 28 53% 17 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Jacoby 40 of 96 41% 27 of 79 6 of 7 7 of 10 40 of 96 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 45 of 96 46% 23 of 69 7 of 9 15 of 18 39 of 87 5 of 8 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Jacoby 10 of 26 38% 5 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 5 10 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 12 of 32 37% 5 of 22 1 of 2 6 of 8 8 of 25 4 of 7 0 of 0
2 Dustin Jacoby 19 of 47 40% 16 of 42 2 of 3 1 of 2 19 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 18 of 36 50% 8 of 24 3 of 4 7 of 8 18 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Dustin Jacoby 11 of 23 47% 6 of 18 2 of 2 3 of 3 11 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 15 of 28 53% 10 of 23 3 of 3 2 of 2 13 of 26 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Petrino because he hits hard and Jacoby's chin is declining. He notes Petrino's power, evolving grappling, and takedowns, while Jacoby is a high-level kickboxer with okay power and 60% takedown defense. He expresses concern about Petrino's smiling reaction after his submission loss to Anthony Smith, but believes it was a fluke. He thinks Jacoby could turn it into a dogfight but Petrino's power is the difference.

"I am going to pick patrino here because he hits so damn hard and Dustin's chin doesn't seem to be what it once was."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by decision. He thinks Petrino is younger, improving, and has more ways to win, including power and takedowns. He notes Jacoby has been dropped often and was recently knocked out by Reyes. He expects Petrino to mix in takedowns and land big shots, but not finish.

"I'll say patrino mixes in the takedowns maybe land some big shots here and there maybe drops jacobe because jacobe likes getting dropped but I'll say patrino does enough to win a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Cody picks Vitor Petrino but with low confidence, noting his poor gas tank and green technique. He believes Petrino will rely on takedowns and top control to win rounds, but Jacoby's striking advantage could be problematic. Cody suggests a live bet on Jacoby after the first round if Petrino tires.

Over 1.5 rounds (-167), fight goes to decision (+170)
"I'm willing to take the dog shot on Covington and Bruno Silva but I'm going to pass on this jacobe one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Connor picks Jacoby as well, agreeing that Petrino's new style is ineffective. He notes that Petrino's game is 'empty' and that Jacoby is a good outboxer who can take advantage. However, Connor also worries about Jacoby's durability, citing his knockout loss to Reyes and shaky moments against Alonzo Menifield.

Jacoby opened at +212, now +254; Petrino opened at -247, now -303
"I'm picking Jacobi as well, but, uh, odd that the odds are against him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Vreeland picks Vitor Petrino to get back on track after his loss to Anthony Smith. He acknowledges Dustin Jacoby's technical kickboxing but worries about Jacoby's durability and tendency to get hurt. Vreeland believes Petrino's freak athleticism and power can change the fight with one shot, even if he's being outpointed. He also notes Petrino can mix in takedowns if needed.

"I'm going go with vtor patrino to come out here and uh get back on track"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Lucrative James picks Vitor Petrino to win, citing Petrino's multiple paths to victory including knockout and grappling. He notes Jacoby's kickboxing background and takedown defense, but believes Petrino's physicality and raw power will be too much. He expresses low interest in betting the fight unless prop odds are wide, but confidently predicts Petrino as the winner.

"I do think berrino wins I do think he's the better fighter I think that he's got way more ways to win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino will crash the pocket effectively and land big shots on Jacoby, who struggles against opponents with big power. The finish is expected within the first two rounds.

wins in round 1 or 2
"I do believe patrino will be able to crash the pocket effectively here and that will allow him to land those big shots on jacobe who just can't seem to get out of the way of opponents with big Power …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Paul picks Dustin Jacoby as an underdog, citing Petrino's struggles against strikers and Jacoby's striking volume. He notes that Petrino's takedowns are his only path, but Jacoby's takedown defense and ability to get back up could neutralize that. Paul is surprised Petrino is such a big favorite.

"I'm surprised that he's such a big favorite like um there does seem to be some action coming in on the jacobe side."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

The MMA Guru picks Dustin Jacoby as an underdog, questioning why he is such a big underdog. He notes Jacoby's kickboxing experience and ability to invest in strikes, though he acknowledges Jacoby's chin has let him down. He believes Petrino's win over Smith was unimpressive (guillotine) and that Jacoby's layers and conditioning will give him an edge. He admits the oddsmakers might know something he doesn't.

underdog bet (implied odds comment)
"I'm going to go Dustin jacobe in his kickboxing experience being able to invest enough and do enough to patrino"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Zane picks Jacoby because Petrino has abandoned his effective bullying style for a technical out-fighting game that doesn't work. He notes that Petrino's recent losses to Anthony Smith and Tyson Pedro show he has no plan, and Jacoby should have plenty of time and space to outbox him. However, Zane is concerned about Jacoby's chin and age.

Jacoby opened at +212, now +254; Petrino opened at -247, now -303; Zane says the odds are 'too wide on Petrino'
"I'm still picking him against Vito Petrino, because Petrino's game as it stands right now is just empty."
LOSS vs Anthony Smith
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:00 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Smith 0 11 of 20 55% 11 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Vitor Petrino 0 10 of 22 45% 10 of 22 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Smith 0 11 of 20 55% 11 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Vitor Petrino 0 10 of 22 45% 10 of 22 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Smith 11 of 20 55% 7 of 15 0 of 0 4 of 5 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 10 of 22 45% 4 of 14 4 of 6 2 of 2 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Smith 11 of 20 55% 7 of 15 0 of 0 4 of 5 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 10 of 22 45% 4 of 14 4 of 6 2 of 2 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Petrino due to youth, size, and strength, despite Smith being the better technical fighter. He notes Smith has taken too much damage and is past his prime, while Petrino is evolving. He calls it a 'changing of the guard' fight.

"vtor patrino is going to be the pick but this is a perfect evolutionary step up in competition for Vitor patrino"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady favors Petrino's youth and momentum, noting his ability to win by knockout or decision. He thinks Smith is past his prime and has taken too much damage. He predicts Petrino wins by grinding decision, possibly taking Smith down.

"I'm gonna say Petrino by like a grinding based decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Cody picks Petrino, citing his physical strength, takedown ability, and power. He notes Smith's durability is questionable after the Krylov loss. However, Cody won't bet at -600 due to lack of value.

"I think he wins... but at minus 600 it's hard to say there's really any meat on the bone here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Vreeland picks Petrino, noting his physicality, wrestling, and youth advantage over the aging Smith. He highlights Petrino's takedowns in every UFC fight and his ability to push a high pace. He warns that Smith could capitalize on a mistake with a submission, but believes Petrino is the much better wrestler and more likely to win minutes. He does not lay the -600 price but is confident in Petrino's victory.

"it should be VOR all day here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff Fox on Vitor Petrino. He also notes the risk due to Petrino's cardio and Smith's submission threat. Vreeland says he is staying away from betting the -500 line because Anthony Smith has screwed bettors over before when written off. He acknowledges Smith's grappling skills but thinks Petrino will knock him out if he fights smart.

"I'm staying away from betting the minus 500 line because Anthony Smith has has screwed us over in the past"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Jeff Fox picks Vitor Petrino but is wary of betting the -500 line. He believes Petrino will knock out Anthony Smith if he keeps his distance and throws bombs, as Smith has no chin left. However, Fox notes that Petrino got tired in his last fight, and Smith still has great jiu-jitsu. If Petrino grapples and tires himself out, he could get submitted. Fox calls it an IQ test for Petrino and says he is staying away from parlays involving this fight due to the risk.

"obviously patrino is to pick here uh as long as he doesn't attack Smith's family I think he's gonna knock him out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino is 11-0 and has developed in every aspect of his MMA game. He came in as a power puncher but now implements a grapple-heavy approach. He will put big punches on Smith, take him down, and grind him out over 15 minutes, showing that Smith is over the hill.

"give me patrino and patrino by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Paul picks Petrino but with hesitation, noting Petrino is still green, makes mistakes, and hasn't faced high-level competition. He thinks Smith is washed but could be competitive. Paul sees Petrino as a fade candidate at this price but expects him to win.

"I'm almost thinking that Vitor Petrino is that guy because he's suspect to me..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino, citing his physicality, takedown defense, and knockout power. He believes Anthony Smith struggles against athletic, powerful opponents and often shells up under pressure. He notes Petrino's composed striking and low kicks, and expects him to exploit Smith's weaknesses, possibly finishing him.

"I'm going to go with uh Vito patrino put him putting him away"
WIN vs Tyson Pedro
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · Mar 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 0 27 of 75 36% 33 of 82 3 of 5 60% 0 0 5:24
Tyson Pedro 0 30 of 60 50% 33 of 64 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 10 of 28 35% 10 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyson Pedro 0 11 of 24 45% 11 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Vitor Petrino 0 10 of 30 33% 10 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:16
Tyson Pedro 0 14 of 22 63% 14 of 23 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
3 Vitor Petrino 0 7 of 17 41% 13 of 24 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:08
Tyson Pedro 0 5 of 14 35% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 27 of 75 36% 16 of 59 4 of 8 7 of 8 25 of 72 0 of 0 2 of 3
Tyson Pedro 30 of 60 50% 3 of 29 11 of 15 16 of 16 29 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 10 of 28 35% 5 of 20 2 of 4 3 of 4 10 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyson Pedro 11 of 24 45% 0 of 13 4 of 4 7 of 7 11 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Vitor Petrino 10 of 30 33% 6 of 24 1 of 3 3 of 3 10 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyson Pedro 14 of 22 63% 1 of 6 5 of 8 8 of 8 13 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Vitor Petrino 7 of 17 41% 5 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 3
Tyson Pedro 5 of 14 35% 2 of 10 2 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Vitor Petrino, calling it a fraud check fight but believing Petrino passes. He notes Petrino's power, athleticism, and wrestling, though he can be sloppy. He thinks Petrino's advantages in power and speed should be enough to win.

"vtor patrino is going to be the pick because of everything I mentioned he hits harder he's more athletic he's faster"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Petrino due to Pedro's poor cardio and 0-3 record in fights that reach the second round. He notes Petrino has excellent cardio, a good chin, and can mix in takedowns, while Pedro is a first-round bust with all 10 wins coming in the first round. He expects Petrino to survive an early storm and finish Pedro late second or third round by TKO.

"I gotta go patrino here just due to the fact that anytime Tyson Pedro reaches the second round he just has nothing left"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Cody also picks Petrino, citing his superior wrestling and ground game as the key. He notes Pedro's takedown defense is poor (52%) and he's faced almost no wrestlers. Cody believes Petrino can strike with Pedro but also take him down and smother him. He acknowledges Petrino's cardio could be a concern but thinks Pedro's cardio is equally poor, evening things out.

"the key here though Paul sha is the ground game yeah 100%... petrino's got an ability to go out there and get the takedowns once he does get you to the ground he's got smothering top control"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino is an undefeated prospect with great punching power and improving grappling. He has excellent awareness to avoid bad positions and can explode out of them. Pedro has slick submissions but Petrino's takedown defense and ability to reverse positions should nullify that. Petrino will dictate where the fight takes place and land the bigger, better strikes. The host expects a finish, likely by knockout in the second round.

Petrino by knockout, round 2
"I think patrino wins this fight pretty much anywhere it goes and I think that this is the fight that we'll see him actually go out there and get another finish likely probably by by the second round as well"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Paul likes Petrino's development and well-rounded skills, noting his solid striking, takedowns, and improving cardio. He believes Petrino will take over if Pedro doesn't catch him early, and that Petrino has a big advantage in the later rounds. He mentions Petrino's chin has been tested but he's only 26 and learning on the job.

"Patrina is the pick for me... I like what I see from Vitor patrino... he's proven to me that he's going to have a big Advantage if he gets out of the first round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Petrino, noting his KO of Modestas Bukauskas while Pedro lost to Bukauskas on short notice. He expects a close first round but Petrino to take over in the second, muscling forward for a TKO. He mentions if it goes past round one, he leans Petrino and suggests checking odds after round one.

TKO win in round 2
"I'm going to say in round two towards the end of it we see Pedro start to slow down and Petrino start to muscle his way forward and get a TKO win in round two"
KO (punch) R2 1:03 · UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Nov 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 1 8 of 26 30% 14 of 34 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:19
Modestas Bukauskas 0 9 of 19 47% 12 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 6 of 21 28% 12 of 29 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:18
Modestas Bukauskas 0 5 of 12 41% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Vitor Petrino 1 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Modestas Bukauskas 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 8 of 26 30% 6 of 23 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 5
Modestas Bukauskas 9 of 19 47% 5 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 5 9 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 6 of 21 28% 4 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 5
Modestas Bukauskas 5 of 12 41% 1 of 7 0 of 0 4 of 5 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Vitor Petrino 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Modestas Bukauskas 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Vitor Petrino
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Petrino (-218), Bukauskas (+180)

Round 1
The second of three undefeated Brazilians on the card takes center stage next, as Petrino (9-0, 2-0 UFC) aims to pick up his 10th win as a pro at the expense of Bukauskas (15-5, 3-3 UFC). Fists and feet are sure to fly shortly between these two light heavyweights, but before they do, referee Marc Goddard has to clock them in. A brief tap of the gloves leads to a faked kick from Bukauskas, who looks for his range and manages to plant his shin on Petrino’s calf early. Bukauskas fires off a head kick to follow, and Petrino’s guard is up well in time to defend. Bukauskas comes up short with another high kick, and he parries a jab and whiffs with a low kick. Bukauskas protects his face from an oncoming head kick, and he pokes at the lead calf. Petrino paws out a jab and absorbs a thumping calf kick, and he tosses another high kick that does not find its target. Jabs are attempted from both sides, and Bukauskas reaches out with a left hook and blocks a kick aimed at his temple. Petrino doubles up on a jab and fires off a left hook that grazes the hair, and they reset with a jab from both men. Petrino sneaks in a jab, and he takes a calf kick and attempts a takedown. When he trips Bukauskas up, the Brazilian elects to lift Bukauskas in the air and slam him down with a powerbomb seen in the professional wrestling circuits. When Bukauskas looks to scramble, Petrino continues maintaining top position while shifting into half guard. Bukauskas defends himself from any ground-and-pound by hanging onto Petrino’s forearms, and the subsequent inactivity prompts Goddard to issue a warning. Petrino scores a pair of punches, and Bukauskas bucks off and starts striking back. A few more short punches from Petrino end the low-paced frame.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Petrino
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Petrino
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Petrino

Round 2
The light heavyweights touch gloves, and Goddard steps in 15 seconds into the round to command that Bukauskas get his mouthpiece replaced, and that the commission get it together. When they resume after the awkward pause, both men go for big strikes, and they partially connect.
Bukauskas looks to settle down with a jab, and as soon as he sits down on it, Petrino slides to the side and uncorks a short but lethal left hook that completely flatlines Bukauskas. The back of Bukauskas’ head clatters off the floor as his eyes roll back, and an attentive Goddard leaps in before Petrino can clobber him with any additional strikes.
Bukauskas tries to get back to his feet and motion that he was just flash knocked down, but he needs help standing up as commission and medical officials rush to his aid. This is a massive victory for the still-undefeated Petrino, who has performed finishes in eight of his 10 pro wins to date.

The Official Result
Vitor Petrino def. Modestas Bukauskas R2 1:03 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Petrino but is not super confident. He notes Petrino is dangerous with power and athleticism, but can be sloppy and dropped. Bukauskas is a good striker with decent takedown defense. Angelo thinks Petrino's relentless aggression will win him the fight, but he leaves Petrino out of parlays because Bukauskas could play spoiler at plus money.

Bukauskas is a great underdog at +250, Petrino left out of parlays
"I am confident not super confident but I do think vtor wins this fight because cuz we have this guy's a dog he doesn't care he'll get dropped he'll keep coming"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by knockout in the second round. He criticizes Bukauskas as a boring point fighter and praises Petrino's evolving skillset, including takedowns and cardio. He believes Petrino can win by any method but prefers the knockout. He notes Petrino's physical strength and ability to go 15 minutes.

"I'll say knocks out psk just because I I would love that for that to happen um so I'll say knockout for patrino and I'll say it happens in the second round"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Levi picks Vitor Petrino, describing him as a physical freak with one-punch knockout power, strong wrestling, and submission skills. He notes that Petrino is still evolving and should be able to steamroll Bukauskas. Levi points out Bukauskas' poor striking defense, with his chin often in the air, and his history of being knocked out. He sees Bukauskas as a low-volume kickboxer who can be overwhelmed. Levi expects Petrino to finish the fight, possibly in the second round.

Petrino wins by KO/TKO, Petrino wins in round 2
"I think he steamrolls Bukauskas... I'm leaning towards him steamrolling Bukauskas to be quite frank with you."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 4, 2023 (fight day)
Vitor Petrino

James is quite confident in Petrino, stating he has all the upside in every aspect of the fight: knockout, submission, and decision. He believes Petrino deserves to be a big favorite and that Bukauskas' only path to victory is if Petrino gasses or if it becomes a low-volume point striking affair, which he does not see happening. He does not specify a method of victory but is confident Petrino gets the win.

"I like patrino here I think he has all the upside in every different aspect of the fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino has shown a solid gas tank for light heavyweight and is working on his jiu-jitsu, as seen in his last fight. He has speed, power, and explosiveness that will trouble Bukauskas. Petrino can either knock him out or use his grappling advantage to take him down and grind him out. The -200 range is a good spot to jump in.

surprised he's only around -200; thinks that's a damn good spot
"I like Petrino a lot in this spot and I'm kind of surprised that he's only around that minus 200 range... I think that's a damn good spot to jump in on him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

The MMA Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas as an underdog over Vitor Petrino. He highlights Bukauskas' experience and reach advantage, and notes his impressive performance against Tyson Pedro on short notice. The Guru believes Bukauskas is underrated and that Petrino may struggle with the reach and stand-up. He also mentions Bukauskas was arguably robbed against Marcin Prachnio. The Guru likes Bukauskas' odds.

underdog odds
"I'm going with another Underdog here I'm going with mestas bowkus over VOR patrino... I like his odds there"
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 3:42 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 0 44 of 81 54% 72 of 111 4 of 6 66% 2 0 8:39
Marcin Prachnio 0 55 of 88 62% 147 of 185 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 16 of 33 48% 20 of 37 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:21
Marcin Prachnio 0 32 of 44 72% 66 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
2 Vitor Petrino 0 11 of 15 73% 30 of 35 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:38
Marcin Prachnio 0 2 of 5 40% 56 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Vitor Petrino 0 17 of 33 51% 22 of 39 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:40
Marcin Prachnio 0 21 of 39 53% 25 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 44 of 81 54% 32 of 68 9 of 10 3 of 3 24 of 58 1 of 1 19 of 22
Marcin Prachnio 55 of 88 62% 25 of 54 21 of 25 9 of 9 41 of 73 14 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 16 of 33 48% 9 of 26 6 of 6 1 of 1 11 of 25 1 of 1 4 of 7
Marcin Prachnio 32 of 44 72% 12 of 23 14 of 15 6 of 6 21 of 32 11 of 12 0 of 0
2 Vitor Petrino 11 of 15 73% 10 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 11 of 11
Marcin Prachnio 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Vitor Petrino 17 of 33 51% 13 of 28 2 of 3 2 of 2 13 of 29 0 of 0 4 of 4
Marcin Prachnio 21 of 39 53% 12 of 27 6 of 9 3 of 3 18 of 36 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Petrino but warns against including him in parlays, citing the recent trend of undefeated prospects losing. He notes Petrino's power and offensive wrestling but poor takedown defense. Prachnio has veteran savvy and power, but his chin is questionable. He sees Petrino having multiple ways to win but lacks confidence.

No bets yet, waiting for props
"Vitor Petrino is the pick no bets yet but we'll see when these props drop"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by first-round knockout. He was impressed by Petrino's wrestling in his last fight, taking down Anton Turkalj seven times. He notes that Prachnio has been knocked out by lesser strikers and has poor durability. He believes Petrino can knock him out on the feet or take him down and finish him. He mentions that Prachnio's path to victory is leg kicks and running away, but he doesn't think the fight goes to decision.

first round knockout
"I'll say he knocks him out on the very first round here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Cody picks Petrino, citing his power and youth. He notes Prachnio has a questionable chin and has been knocked out early in the UFC. He thinks Petrino will crack him early. He says there's no value at -300 but Petrino should win.

Petrino by KO/TKO, under 1.5 rounds
"Petrino will be the pick but minus 300 there's really nothing there for me"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Connor picks Petrino because he is too violent for Prachnio, who has become a safe fighter after being knocked out. Petrino's reckless pressure and durability will force Prachnio out of his comfort zone. However, Prachnio could win if he takes Petrino down or lands a switch kick, but Petrino's ability to keep coming makes him the pick.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I just think he's too violent for Prochnio."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Levi picks Petrino, citing his knockout power and aggressive style. He notes that Prachnio has a questionable chin, having been knocked out three times in the UFC. Levi acknowledges Petrino's cardio concerns due to his high-energy approach but believes he will expose Prachnio's chin early. He is not interested in betting at minus-300 but picks Petrino to win.

"I think Vitor is going to be the guy that goes back and exposes that chin of Marcin pratch."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Vitor Petrino

James believes Petrino has all the advantages: youth, power, physicality, durability, and strength. He thinks Prachnio may be the better technical mixed martial artist, but Petrino's raw attributes will overwhelm him. He predicts a first-round knockout, as he expects Petrino to land on Prachnio's chin and finish the fight.

Vitor Petrino wins by KO in round 1; Vitor Petrino inside the distance
"I think petrino's gonna Land one on pretnia's chin and I think it's going to be night night"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino has big knockout power and durability, and he can cut off the cage to prevent Prachnio from using his karate style. Prachnio is not a good enough grappler to hold Petrino down, and Petrino will eventually land a knockout, likely early in the fight.

round 1 knockout
"give me Vitor Petrino by knockout I actually think it comes pretty early as well let's call it round one."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Paul picks Petrino, noting his power and wrestling. He thinks Prachnio has only beaten low-level competition and will be overwhelmed. He mentions Petrino's cardio looked good in his last fight. He expects a finish or a clear decision.

Petrino by KO/TKO or decision
"I think Petrino mixes in those takedowns if he doesn't melt him with a big right hand"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino to win by KO, citing Prachnio's poor chin and lack of finishing potential. He notes Prachnio was KO'd by Sam Alvey and others, while Petrino is a physical freak with dangerous striking. He acknowledges Petrino's grappling issues but believes his finishing power is decisive.

wins by KO
"I'm gonna go with him getting this one done by KO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Zane picks Petrino because he is a bully and brawler who doesn't gas easily and has a great chin. Prachnio is a technical karate fighter who has become safe after being knocked out, and Petrino's relentless pressure and power should overwhelm him. However, Petrino is a mess and could be taken down or knocked out, but his violence is likely too much for Prachnio.

Petrino opened at -263, currently -278; Prachnio opened at +199, currently +238. Zane says odds should not get wider.
"I got to pick a guy like Patrino light heavyweight. It's just the right division for him for that kind of fight."
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Petrino because he hits hard and Jacoby's chin is declining. He notes Petrino's power, evolving grappling, and takedowns, while Jacoby is a high-level kickboxer with okay power and 60% takedown defense. He expresses concern about Petrino's smiling reaction after his submission loss to Anthony Smith, but believes it was a fluke. He thinks Jacoby could turn it into a dogfight but Petrino's power is the difference.

"I am going to pick patrino here because he hits so damn hard and Dustin's chin doesn't seem to be what it once was."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by decision. He thinks Petrino is younger, improving, and has more ways to win, including power and takedowns. He notes Jacoby has been dropped often and was recently knocked out by Reyes. He expects Petrino to mix in takedowns and land big shots, but not finish.

"I'll say patrino mixes in the takedowns maybe land some big shots here and there maybe drops jacobe because jacobe likes getting dropped but I'll say patrino does enough to win a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Cody picks Vitor Petrino but with low confidence, noting his poor gas tank and green technique. He believes Petrino will rely on takedowns and top control to win rounds, but Jacoby's striking advantage could be problematic. Cody suggests a live bet on Jacoby after the first round if Petrino tires.

Over 1.5 rounds (-167), fight goes to decision (+170)
"I'm willing to take the dog shot on Covington and Bruno Silva but I'm going to pass on this jacobe one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Connor picks Jacoby as well, agreeing that Petrino's new style is ineffective. He notes that Petrino's game is 'empty' and that Jacoby is a good outboxer who can take advantage. However, Connor also worries about Jacoby's durability, citing his knockout loss to Reyes and shaky moments against Alonzo Menifield.

Jacoby opened at +212, now +254; Petrino opened at -247, now -303
"I'm picking Jacobi as well, but, uh, odd that the odds are against him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Vreeland picks Vitor Petrino to get back on track after his loss to Anthony Smith. He acknowledges Dustin Jacoby's technical kickboxing but worries about Jacoby's durability and tendency to get hurt. Vreeland believes Petrino's freak athleticism and power can change the fight with one shot, even if he's being outpointed. He also notes Petrino can mix in takedowns if needed.

"I'm going go with vtor patrino to come out here and uh get back on track"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Lucrative James picks Vitor Petrino to win, citing Petrino's multiple paths to victory including knockout and grappling. He notes Jacoby's kickboxing background and takedown defense, but believes Petrino's physicality and raw power will be too much. He expresses low interest in betting the fight unless prop odds are wide, but confidently predicts Petrino as the winner.

"I do think berrino wins I do think he's the better fighter I think that he's got way more ways to win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino will crash the pocket effectively and land big shots on Jacoby, who struggles against opponents with big power. The finish is expected within the first two rounds.

wins in round 1 or 2
"I do believe patrino will be able to crash the pocket effectively here and that will allow him to land those big shots on jacobe who just can't seem to get out of the way of opponents with big Power look for patrino to crash that pocket make jacoe uncomfortable …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Paul picks Dustin Jacoby as an underdog, citing Petrino's struggles against strikers and Jacoby's striking volume. He notes that Petrino's takedowns are his only path, but Jacoby's takedown defense and ability to get back up could neutralize that. Paul is surprised Petrino is such a big favorite.

"I'm surprised that he's such a big favorite like um there does seem to be some action coming in on the jacobe side."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

The MMA Guru picks Dustin Jacoby as an underdog, questioning why he is such a big underdog. He notes Jacoby's kickboxing experience and ability to invest in strikes, though he acknowledges Jacoby's chin has let him down. He believes Petrino's win over Smith was unimpressive (guillotine) and that Jacoby's layers and conditioning will give him an edge. He admits the oddsmakers might know something he doesn't.

underdog bet (implied odds comment)
"I'm going to go Dustin jacobe in his kickboxing experience being able to invest enough and do enough to patrino"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Zane picks Jacoby because Petrino has abandoned his effective bullying style for a technical out-fighting game that doesn't work. He notes that Petrino's recent losses to Anthony Smith and Tyson Pedro show he has no plan, and Jacoby should have plenty of time and space to outbox him. However, Zane is concerned about Jacoby's chin and age.

Jacoby opened at +212, now +254; Petrino opened at -247, now -303; Zane says the odds are 'too wide on Petrino'
"I'm still picking him against Vito Petrino, because Petrino's game as it stands right now is just empty."