vs
-225 +230
UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley · Dec 14, 2024 · Bantamweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley Next Fight
Age 33
Height 5' 7"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 32
Height 5' 7"
Reach 70"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Daniel Marcos
4.9 SLpM
53.0% Str. Acc.
3.79 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
1.35 TD Avg
52.0% TD Acc.
85.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Adrian Yañez
5.96 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
5.24 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
75.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Daniel Marcos
Moneyline
BetWay -225
KO/TKO
FanDuel +200
Submission
BetWay +2800
Decision
BetWay +200
Adrian Yañez
Moneyline
Caesars +230
KO/TKO
BetRivers +510
Submission
FanDuel +2500
Decision
FanDuel +480
Daniel Marcos - Fight History
WIN vs Miles Johns
Submission R2 4:23 · UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Nov 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miles Johns 0 28 of 54 51% 33 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:34
Daniel Marcos 0 27 of 47 57% 42 of 69 3 of 4 75% 1 0 3:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miles Johns 0 8 of 20 40% 13 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:19
Daniel Marcos 0 12 of 21 57% 25 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:36
2 Miles Johns 0 20 of 34 58% 20 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Daniel Marcos 0 15 of 26 57% 17 of 34 2 of 3 66% 1 0 2:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miles Johns 28 of 54 51% 21 of 45 3 of 5 4 of 4 28 of 49 0 of 5 0 of 0
Daniel Marcos 27 of 47 57% 15 of 33 8 of 10 4 of 4 14 of 34 13 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miles Johns 8 of 20 40% 4 of 16 1 of 1 3 of 3 8 of 17 0 of 3 0 of 0
Daniel Marcos 12 of 21 57% 5 of 13 5 of 6 2 of 2 3 of 12 9 of 9 0 of 0
2 Miles Johns 20 of 34 58% 17 of 29 2 of 4 1 of 1 20 of 32 0 of 2 0 of 0
Daniel Marcos 15 of 26 57% 10 of 20 3 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 22 4 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Angelo picks Daniel Marcos because of his superior cardio and cleaner striking. He notes that Miles Johns will come out hot and win the first round, but will fade as the fight goes on, allowing Marcos to take over. He also mentions a potential bet on Miles Johns plus 3.5 rounds, as Johns is likely to win one round.

Miles Johns plus 3.5 rounds (spread bet)
"Daniel's probably the cleaner overall striker. Miles has more power. As long as Daniel avoids the haymakers, I'm expecting him to win here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Miles Johns

Big Brady sees this as a close fight, noting that Daniel Marcos has a nice record but he thought Marcos lost the Davey Grant fight. He mentions Miles Johns has a wrestling background and surprisingly good cardio lately, while Marcos has slowed down in past fights. He favors Marcos' distance striking but thinks Johns has more power and the fight goes to a split decision, leaning toward Johns due to the corrupt judges.

split decision
"I'm going to leave Miles John's here in a very close fight, but I think this fight has split decision written all over it."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Cody picks Johns as a dog, citing his improved performance against Matsumoto and Marcos' inconsistency. He thinks Johns' wrestling and volume can earn him a decision.

"Give me dog money here on Miles Johns."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not provide a clear pick for this fight. He discusses Adrian Yanez vs Christian Quinones instead, which is not on the card. He mentions Miles Johns and Daniel Marcos only in passing, but does not give a prediction.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

The host believes Marcos has a better all-around game and will pick Johns apart from distance, especially by chewing away at the lead leg. This should slow Johns down and allow Marcos to win on the scorecards in deep water.

"I think Marcos will showcase a better all-around game, picking apart Jon's from distance and really chewing away at that lead leg."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Paul leans Johns but is passing due to uncertainty. He notes both fighters' inconsistency and the short-notice changes, but likes Johns at plus money.

"I'm going to say Dogger Pass, and I'm going to take Johns as the pick."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

The Guru picks Daniel Marcos over Miles Johns. He notes that Marcos has been competitive with top bantamweights like Davy Grant and Montel Jackson, while Johns is on a two-fight losing streak. He highlights Marcos's nasty knees up the middle as a key factor against the stationary Johns. He predicts a TKO finish, as Johns doesn't move enough to avoid Marcos's pressure.

"I'm going to take Daniel Marcos to win this fight via TKO."
LOSS vs Montel Jackson
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · May 03, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Montel Jackson 0 30 of 66 45% 67 of 106 2 of 8 25% 1 0 3:37
Daniel Marcos 0 17 of 32 53% 24 of 43 3 of 7 42% 0 0 5:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Montel Jackson 0 4 of 12 33% 22 of 31 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:07
Daniel Marcos 0 4 of 7 57% 7 of 11 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:26
2 Montel Jackson 0 15 of 28 53% 22 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
Daniel Marcos 0 7 of 12 58% 7 of 12 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:55
3 Montel Jackson 0 11 of 26 42% 23 of 38 1 of 3 33% 1 0 1:04
Daniel Marcos 0 6 of 13 46% 10 of 20 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Montel Jackson 30 of 66 45% 25 of 58 1 of 3 4 of 5 27 of 62 3 of 4 0 of 0
Daniel Marcos 17 of 32 53% 5 of 18 5 of 7 7 of 7 13 of 27 3 of 4 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Montel Jackson 4 of 12 33% 2 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 2 3 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
Daniel Marcos 4 of 7 57% 2 of 4 1 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Montel Jackson 15 of 28 53% 12 of 25 0 of 0 3 of 3 15 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Marcos 7 of 12 58% 1 of 5 2 of 3 4 of 4 5 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 1
3 Montel Jackson 11 of 26 42% 11 of 25 0 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 23 2 of 3 0 of 0
Daniel Marcos 6 of 13 46% 2 of 9 2 of 2 2 of 2 5 of 11 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Montel Jackson vs. Daniel Marcos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-205), Marcos (+170)

Round 1
Bantamweights are up again in Des Moines, this time red-hot rising contenders Marcos and Jackson, with Gary Copeland on referee duty. Jackson is southpaw, Marcos orthodox, and they exchange a couple of glancing punches from outside before Marcos closes the distance and clinches with the much taller American. Jackson grounds Marcos with a beautiful foot sweep, and takes top position in Marcos’ guard. He lets “Soncora” up quickly, and they go back to kickboxing, where Marcos continues to try and solve the puzzle of Jackson’s huge height and reach advantages. They clinch again, this time with Marcos’ back against the fence, and Jackson drives his knee into Marcos’ thigh and midsection before they break off and move away from the fence. Marcos rushes forward and pushes Jackson to the fence, where he takes a turn firing short knees as they vie for head position and wrist control. Marcos changes levels, peels Jackson off the fence and takes him down. Marcos is in Jackson’s guard, but only briefly, as Jackson hips out, gives his back up and stands. He turns to face Marcos, completing the escape, just before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jackson

Round 2
Marcos comes forward, working to navigate his foe’s reach by springing in with big overhand rights. Marcos jumps in again, but this time he changes levels and completes a takedown in the center of the Octagon. Marcos is in Jackson’s guard, but Jackson will not concede the position, keeping his hips active and looking to get his feet on Marcos’ hips and kick him off. Marcos lets his man up and they go back to work on the feet. Jackson is connecting with a fast, long jab that comes up from near his beltline, while Marcos is keeping his chin tucked and looking for his moment to land a big punch. Marcos steps into the pocket and shoves Jackson to the fence, where they exchange a couple of blows in close before breaking the clinch. Marcos wades right back into range and drives the taller man to the cage again. He locks his hands and, after a moment’s adjustment, hoists Jackson and puts him on the ground. Jackson springs right back to his feet and they move back to the fence. Jackson reverses position and is pushing Marcos into the chain-link at the end of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jackson

Round 3
The final round begins with Marcos landing a nice body kick to the open side. Jackson comes back with a pair of punches, one of which might have grazed Marcos’ right eye in an awkward way, as he comes away guarding that side of his face closely. Jackson moves in and tries for a takedown near the fence, but Marcos sprawls well in close quarters. Marcos goes for a takedown of his own and gets Jackson off his feet, then moves to the back as Jackson gets back up. Marcos works from standing back control for a few moments before Jackson spins out of his grasp and off of the fence. Marcos immediately closes the distance again, bending at the waist and trying to pull Jackson’s hips away from the cage. Jackson turns his back and Marcos takes a rear waistlock, but he can only get off a few knees to the thigh before Jackson escapes again. Jackson comes forward, stalking a suddenly tired-looking Marcos, and gets an easy takedown. As Marcos stands, Jackson snares him in a D’Arce choke, dragging him back to the mat as he does so. Marcos remains calm and defends against the choke, but the final horn sounds seconds later, possibly without “Soncora” having landed a single strike this round. Barring some extreme judging malfeasance, one of the UFC’s two dozen or so undefeated fighters is about to go down.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Jackson (30-27 Jackson)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson (30-27 Jackson)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jackson (30-27 Jackson)

The Official Result
Montel Jackson def. Daniel Marcos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Angelo goes against the public and picks Daniel Marcos as an underdog. He trusts Marcos's cardio and takedown defense, and believes he can win a close decision similar to his last fight. He suggests a +3.5 spread bet if the odds remain wide.

Interested in +3.5 spread if odds widen
"I'm picking Daniel Marcos."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Big Brady picks Montel Jackson, citing his significant height and reach advantage, power, and wrestling upside. He notes that Jackson's losses came against wrestlers who took him down, but Marcos is not a wrestler; Jackson may get takedowns instead. Brady questions Marcos's ceiling, pointing out close decisions against Adrien Yanez and Davey Grant, where Grant outlanded Marcos. He expects Jackson to win a decision, mixing in wrestling and landing big shots.

Decision win
"I'm going to go Jackson here. I think he wins by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Connor picks Marcos, believing his defensive awareness and ability to slip past length will neutralize Jackson's reach. He notes that Jackson's striking is aimless and he has struggled against pressure fighters like Brent Johns and Ricky Simone. Connor thinks Marcos can get inside and land meaningful shots, and that Jackson's lack of process will be exposed. However, he admits Marcos tends to walk a fine line and doesn't control fights completely.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I have faith in Daniel Marcos in this one... I think Jackson is quite easy to pressure and push around the cage at range."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Jackson will shut down Marcos's calf kicking and grappling game. He will land his big power and muscle Marcos, getting a KO finish within 10 minutes.

KO within 10 minutes
"Jackson shuts down the calf kicking and grappling game of Marcos, landing his big power, musling Marcos and eventually getting that KO finish within 10 minutes."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

The MMA Guru picks Montel Jackson to win by TKO in the first or second round. He praises Jackson's power, reach, and wrestling defense, noting that he has never been held down. He believes Daniel Marcos lacks the grappling threat and power to trouble Jackson, and that Jackson will find a finish. He thinks Jackson should be a -250 favorite, so -198 is good value.

TKO in round 1 or 2, good value at -198
"I've got Montel Jackson getting this one done and I think he wins it by TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Zane picks Jackson, citing his size, reach, and fight-changing power as key advantages. He notes that Marcos has never faced a fighter with Jackson's physical attributes and may struggle to get inside. Zane acknowledges that Marcos is skilled and defensively aware, but worries that Jackson's power will be the difference if Marcos can't neutralize the reach. He admits it's a close fight and not confident.

Odds: Jackson -190, Marcos +165. Zane thinks the odds should be closer.
"I think I'm gonna pick Jackson... I think he has the fight changing power that Marcos does not have."
WIN vs Adrian Yañez
Decision (split) (28–29, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley · Dec 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Marcos 0 79 of 183 43% 85 of 189 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:15
Adrian Yañez 0 86 of 147 58% 95 of 156 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Marcos 0 24 of 55 43% 29 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Adrian Yañez 0 29 of 46 63% 30 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:46
2 Daniel Marcos 0 41 of 98 41% 41 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Adrian Yañez 0 39 of 70 55% 39 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Daniel Marcos 0 14 of 30 46% 15 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:52
Adrian Yañez 0 18 of 31 58% 26 of 39 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Marcos 79 of 183 43% 57 of 156 8 of 10 14 of 17 79 of 182 0 of 1 0 of 0
Adrian Yañez 86 of 147 58% 60 of 111 9 of 16 17 of 20 81 of 142 3 of 3 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Marcos 24 of 55 43% 15 of 46 2 of 2 7 of 7 24 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Adrian Yañez 29 of 46 63% 14 of 30 4 of 5 11 of 11 27 of 44 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Daniel Marcos 41 of 98 41% 29 of 82 5 of 6 7 of 10 41 of 97 0 of 1 0 of 0
Adrian Yañez 39 of 70 55% 29 of 52 5 of 10 5 of 8 39 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Daniel Marcos 14 of 30 46% 13 of 28 1 of 2 0 of 0 14 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Adrian Yañez 18 of 31 58% 17 of 29 0 of 1 1 of 1 15 of 28 1 of 1 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Angelo picks Yañez as the better boxer with faster hands, expecting a striking-only fight. He notes Yañez's technical boxing, fight IQ, and 100% takedown defense, while Marcos is undefeated but untested against high-level strikers. He believes Marcos will be forced into a boxing match where Yañez has the edge. He cannot bet on this fight due to unknowns about Marcos.

No bet.
"I think yany is a little faster and I think he has the better hands... I'm going to pick yanes here but I'm I can't bet on this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Big Brady picks Daniel Marcos to win by second-round knockout. He likes Marcos's diverse striking (leg kicks, body kicks, head kicks) and thinks Yañez is hittable and has durability issues, noting Yañez was knocked out by Rob Font. He expects Marcos to hurt Yañez and finish him.

"I'm going Daniel Marcos here I think he's going to pick apart Yan and eventually hurt him and get him out of there in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Cody picks Daniel Marcos, citing his durability, cardio, and pressure fighting. He notes that Yañez has been knocked out by strikers and struggles against volume. Marcos's ability to take a shot and keep coming forward is key. Cody sees this as a striker vs striker matchup where Marcos's durability gives him the edge.

"I think Marcos wins given you're getting the best version of Marcos but the one outlier is that fight with Davey Grant where he just doesn't do anything."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Connor picks Marcos, citing that his game has smaller gaps and he is more consistent. He notes that Marcos can target Yañez's leg kicks and build momentum over rounds, while Yañez may fade if his initial blitz fails. Connor acknowledges it's a close fight and could go either way.

Yañez opened at +124, now +180; Marcos opened at -139, now -207
"I'll take Marcos. Just, you know, to justify it a little, it's really just like I say, the gaps in his game are so much smaller."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Daniel Vreeland picks Daniel Marcos, citing his high fight IQ and well-rounded skills. He notes that Yañez is one-dimensional with fast hands but predictable, while Marcos can box, kickbox, wrestle, and do jiu-jitsu. Vreeland expects Marcos to avoid unnecessary pocket exchanges and use a varied attack. He mentions the price (-225) is a bit high but still picks Marcos.

"I'mma pick Danielle Marcos come out here and get this dub"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Lucrative James picks Daniel Marcos to win, citing Marcos' superior striking skills, clinch work, and leg kicks. He acknowledges Marcos' cardio issues in round three but believes Marcos has enough early upside to win the first two rounds or secure a finish. He notes Yañez's toughness and cardio but points out Yañez's vulnerabilities to leg kicks and head punches, as seen in past losses.

"I think Marcos is going to win the fight but I would be scared to bet on Marcos if the fight gets into round three."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Marcos's calf-kicking abilities will render Yañez defenseless, leading to a TKO victory within the second or third round. The public line movement from -170 to -230 supports this pick.

wins by TKO in round 2 or 3
"I believe his calf kicking abilities will render yanes defenseless and that will allow Marcos to put together a TKO Victory within the second or third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Paul leans towards Marcos, citing his durability and undefeated record. He notes that Yañez has questionable durability and has been knocked out before. Paul is concerned if Marcos doesn't push the pace, but overall favors Marcos's volume and pressure.

"I think the the durability is what makes me side with Marcos obviously he's undefeated."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

The MMA Guru initially leans toward Adrian Yañez due to his slick hands and underdog status, but after reviewing Marcos' undefeated record and tougher competition on the regional scene, he switches to Daniel Marcos. He predicts Marcos will use lateral movement and leg kicks to win a close decision (29-28). He admits Yañez may have the talent edge but trusts Marcos' resume.

decision 29-28
"I'll go Daniel Marcos then I'll go Marcos winning a close fought 2928 decision over Adrian yanz"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Zane leans toward Yañez because of his flashier punching and ability to hurt opponents. He notes that Marcos has a tendency to have inactive periods and can be hurt, which could be dangerous against Yañez. However, Zane is concerned about Yañez's leg kick defense and his tendency to start fast and fade.

Yañez opened at +124, now +180; Marcos opened at -139, now -207
"I think I'll take Yanyas. I think he might hurt Marcos."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Jun 08, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Marcos 0 60 of 123 48% 68 of 134 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:12
John Castañeda 1 98 of 171 57% 101 of 177 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Marcos 0 24 of 46 52% 25 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
John Castañeda 0 28 of 52 53% 28 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Daniel Marcos 0 13 of 30 43% 20 of 40 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:53
John Castañeda 0 26 of 54 48% 27 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:37
3 Daniel Marcos 0 23 of 47 48% 23 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:19
John Castañeda 1 44 of 65 67% 46 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Marcos 60 of 123 48% 26 of 75 9 of 16 25 of 32 59 of 122 1 of 1 0 of 0
John Castañeda 98 of 171 57% 71 of 131 21 of 31 6 of 9 81 of 150 17 of 20 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Marcos 24 of 46 52% 6 of 19 3 of 5 15 of 22 24 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
John Castañeda 28 of 52 53% 23 of 41 2 of 8 3 of 3 26 of 49 2 of 2 0 of 1
2 Daniel Marcos 13 of 30 43% 7 of 24 2 of 2 4 of 4 13 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
John Castañeda 26 of 54 48% 22 of 49 3 of 4 1 of 1 17 of 42 9 of 12 0 of 0
3 Daniel Marcos 23 of 47 48% 13 of 32 4 of 9 6 of 6 22 of 46 1 of 1 0 of 0
John Castañeda 44 of 65 67% 26 of 41 16 of 19 2 of 5 38 of 59 6 of 6 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
John Castaneda vs. Daniel Marcos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Marcos (-120), Castaneda (+100)

Round 1
A pair of bantamweights that hold exactly eight knockout victories and seven triumphs on the scorecards meet as the prelims keep on pushing. Castaneda (21-6, 4-2 UFC) rides a two-fight win streak into this matchup, with a potential pattern brewing of him winning two and losing the third. His Peruvian foe Marcos (15-0, 1 NC; 2-0, 1 NC UFC) has never tasted defeat as a pro, and his lone non-victorious performance came in February when he kicked a flying Qileng Aori in the groin to result in a no contest. The third man in the Octagon for this one will be Dan Miragliotta, and he begins the fight when the two men touch ‘em up. Castaneda springs in and out of range, slapping a few leg kicks on the fiery haired man from Peru. Marcos throws one back, and he walks through a counter low kick to punch “Sexi Mexi” in the face three times. Castaneda slips to the side and keeps snapping out leg kicks, targeting the calf repeatedly while attempting to parry or dodge anything Marcos throws his way. Marcos slowly cuts his foe off, and he lines a right hand down the middle and drills him with a step-in knee. Marcos gets off a body kick, and Castaneda slaps a few more leg kicks off the calf for good measure. Marcos marches in with a heavy right hand, sending Castaneda flying, and Castaneda bounces off the cage wall and hits one knee. Castaneda gets back up and scampers away, and Marcos grins and pursues another overhand right. A body kick is swatted away by Marcos, and he coils and looses his right hand again. Castaneda prods with low kick after low kick, and he is met with a right hand and a pair of knees. Two quick hands from Marcos find the chin of his opponent, and Castaneda’s nose starts to turn red. A front kick from Marcos does not help, as it grazes the beak as Castaneda is retreating. Castaneda pecks with another leg kick and hops away, and Marcos’ right hand marks up the bridge of Castaneda’s nose. Marcos parries a punch and drills Castaneda with three before Castaneda can get away. Marcos plants a kick on the ribs of his foe, and Castaneda’s low kicks keep slapping but are frequently countered by a right hook. A few more from Marcos send Castaneda down to his knees, and Castaneda climbs up and rushes away while Marcos gives chase. As Marcos lands a few more, the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Marcos
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Marcos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Marcos

Round 2
Gloves are touched to commence the round, and they trade leg kicks right off the bat. Marcos connects with a quick combination of punches, resulting in Castaneda crashing the pocket and clinching up. Castaneda presses tightly in the clinch, stomping the undefeated fighter’s toes. Marcos breaks off and chases after Castaneda, blasting him in the face with a knee and several right hands. The strikes cause blood to blow from the nose of “Sexi Mexi,” and Marcos targets the same place with a few more knees and rights. Castaneda tries to take the fight down to slow down the onslaught of the Peruvian, where he succeeds in clinging to him and briefly halting the offense. As Marcos turns him about, he knees Castaneda in the face and thigh a few times, as Castaneda leans his shoulder on the wall before splitting off. Castaneda sells out for a double, and Marcos’ defense holds up as he leans his back on the fence and knees Castaneda square in the face. Marcos finds Castaneda’s face with punches, a head kick and a follow-up one-two, and Castaneda is tough but taking damage. Marcos chases after Castaneda and lets Castaneda hit him back so he can slug him harder. Castaneda finds a different angle, rushes forward and scoops “Soncora” up to slam him on the canvas. Marcos turns to a knee and is up after a few seconds, and he lays into Castaneda with punches and a vicious knee until Castaneda shoots once more. Castaneda spins with an elbow that brushes past the shoulder, and Marcos drives him back with a front kick and a leaping right hand. Castaneda counters and bloodies up the bridge of Marcos’ nose, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Marcos
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Marcos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Marcos

Round 3
The fighters hug it out to start the last round, and Marcos leads the dance with a clean right hand. Castaneda strafes to the side and responds with a straight right hand, and he spins with a kick that misses the mark. Marcos kicks his foe in the ribs, and he chops at the inside calf and then jams his shin into the solar plexus. Castaneda retaliates with a head kick, and Marcos kicks him back only for the foot to bounce off the stomach and potentially the cup. After a brief look at the replay, Miragliotta tells them it was legal, so they resume fighting and Marcos kicks the same spot. Castaneda cries foul again for a cup shot, and Miragliotta once more tells him they are legal. Marcos rushes at Castaneda, who is turned around and upset, and he punches his way forward until Castaneda grabs hold of him to tie him up. Marcos is turned around, but he muscles his way out of the tie-up. Castaneda goes after him, kicking the lead leg and body before Marcos lines up a right hand down the pipe. Marcos jabs the body with a kick, and Castaneda responds with a low kick. They trade strikes one after the other, and Marcos lands a right as Castaneda trips. Castaneda is upright in an instant, and he throws a few punches that are out of range. Castaneda gets off a solid body kick, and Marcos comes back at him with three punches and a much heavier body kick of his own. Castaneda races forward, keeping Marcos on the back foot, and he throws punches and kicks. Castaneda winds up with a big right hand, and Marcos says, “two can play that game,” and decks Castaneda with his own fastball. Castaneda hits his seat and jumps back up to his feet after the flash knockdown, and Marcos elects to tie him up instead of land much more. On the break, Marcos digs a right to the body and one to the head, and Castaneda punches his foe in the chest in response. Castaneda scores a right hand and lets loose with a head kick, and Marcos suddenly realizes that he is in trouble. Castaneda sprints at him trying to do some finalizing damage, and Marcos gets his feet back and cracks Castaneda with a thudding elbow right before the fight wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Marcos (30-27 Marcos)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Marcos (30-27 Marcos)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Marcos (30-27 Marcos)

The Official Result
Daniel Marcos def. John Castaneda via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
John Castañeda

Angelo picks John Castañeda as the underdog. He notes that Daniel Marcos is undefeated but has squeaked out close decisions, and his UFC wins are not dominant. John is all gas, no brakes, with forward pressure, wrestling, and a high pace. Angelo thinks John's wrestling and pressure will be too much for Marcos, who likes to control the tempo. He expects John to win a decision or possibly get a finish.

"I'm going sexy mexy here to make it a three-fight win streak"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Big Brady picks Daniel Marcos to win by decision. He likes Marcos's striking volume and body work, which could break Castañeda as seen in the Santos fight. He doubts Castañeda's wrestling will be effective because Marcos has good takedown defense and get-up game. He expects a war but favors Marcos's striking.

"give me give me Marcos to win this fight I don't think the wrestling of cast andate is going to play a factor and for that reason I I like the strike a little bit more of Marcos I'm going …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Cody picks Marcos, noting that Castañeda struggles when pressured and Marcos has good leg kicks and volume. He acknowledges Castañeda's wrestling but thinks Marcos' takedown defense and striking will be enough to edge a decision. Cody sees this as a close fight but leans towards Marcos' development.

"in my head I got to pick somebody I'm I'm going to pick Marcos and just chalk up the dve grant fight to just an outlier"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Daniel picks Marcos as the slicker fighter, expecting a close decision. He praises Marcos' cerebral approach and jab, and notes Castañeda's experience and improved output. He has been picking against Castañeda and continues that trend.

close decision
"I'm gonna go Marcos to kind of just outslick him a little bit and win a close decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
John Castañeda

Jacob picks John Castañeda, calling him a former lock of the week. He likes that John doesn't force takedowns but uses his wrestling as a weapon, often setting up takedowns with his boxing. He thinks the striking will be close, but John's wrestling gives him an edge, especially late in rounds. He notes that John was plus money and would have been his lock of the week if the odds were wider earlier.

John Castañeda at plus money
"I think he's plus 100 right now right I kind of wish be honest with you that on Sunday he was definitely a plus money fighter he would have been my lock of the week"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 4, 2024 (4 days before fight)
John Castañeda

Castañeda's movement and lateral footwork should help him avoid Marcos' calf kicks and crash the pocket with power strikes. He has more tools and experience, and can hand Marcos his first loss. However, if Marcos establishes the calf kick, he could take over. Close fight, slight lean to Castañeda by decision.

"I am going to lean ever so slightly to the Casta side as I think he has a better style to avoid the calf kicking style of Marcos"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
John Castañeda

Paul slightly leans towards Castañeda based on his wrestling and volume. He notes that Castañeda moves forward well and has good output. Paul thinks this is a properly priced fight and does not intend to make a significant play.

"I'll ever so slightly lean towards castan just on uh wrestling and and and and volume I suppose but I don't know man I think it's a properly priced fight and I don't really intend to um to make like …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

The Guru picks Marcos after initially considering Castañeda. He says Castañeda hasn't put together wins impressively and his recent fights weren't good-looking. Marcos is 15-0 and active, and though he was given a robbery decision against Dave Grant, the Guru thinks Marcos is better than Castañeda. He notes Marcos looked amazing in the first round against Chang before the no-contest.

"I'm going to go with Daniel Marcos... I think he's pretty decent so I think he's better than cast days"
LOSS vs Aoriqileng
No Contest (accidental groin kick) R2 3:28 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Feb 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Marcos 0 81 of 126 64% 84 of 129 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
Aoriqileng 0 45 of 95 47% 45 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Marcos 0 36 of 63 57% 38 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aoriqileng 0 22 of 54 40% 22 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
2 Daniel Marcos 0 45 of 63 71% 46 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
Aoriqileng 0 23 of 41 56% 23 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Marcos 81 of 126 64% 50 of 84 12 of 19 19 of 23 69 of 113 5 of 6 7 of 7
Aoriqileng 45 of 95 47% 26 of 71 10 of 12 9 of 12 43 of 93 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Marcos 36 of 63 57% 20 of 41 6 of 9 10 of 13 33 of 60 3 of 3 0 of 0
Aoriqileng 22 of 54 40% 13 of 41 5 of 6 4 of 7 22 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Daniel Marcos 45 of 63 71% 30 of 43 6 of 10 9 of 10 36 of 53 2 of 3 7 of 7
Aoriqileng 23 of 41 56% 13 of 30 5 of 6 5 of 5 21 of 39 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Daniel Marcos vs. Qileng Aori
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Marcos (-250), Aori (+205)

Round 1
If the reports and claims are accurate, a billionaire will be in the stands at the UFC Apex this afternoon. Within a matter of minutes, it will be apparent if the tech mogul and personality of the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, Elon Musk, has received the Mark Zuckerberg treatment of renting the entire place out for himself. If not, a few hundred fans plus the controversial figure will be in the building for this jam-packed 14-fight showcase. The first match of the day comes in the bantamweight division, as flashy undefeated Peruvian Marcos (15-0, 2-0 UFC) aims to keep his spotless record intact at the expense of Inner Mongolia’s Aori (25-11, 3-3 UFC). Referee Jason Herzog will need to be on high alert right out of the gate to keep track of these two quick competitors. The gloves are touched, and it’s on with the show. Aori flicks out an early front kick to measure his range, and he sits back and waits to see if a counter comes his way. It does not. Marcos watches from afar, and he surges into action with a single overhand right that gets Aori’s attention. The two trade low kicks, and they both let their hands go with big, winging punches. In the midst of an exchange, Marcos changes things up with a stern knee on the jaw, and Aori shakes it off. Both men land flush and back off to not get sucked into a brawl. Aori paws out a front kick, and blood trickles down the temple from the power lefts from the Peruvian. Aori leaps forward with a knee, and uses his momentum to press into a clinch. Marcos meets him with a strike that busts Aori’s mouth open, and Aori cannot keep the tie-up and is forced to back off and reset. Marcos comes up short with a front kick, but his looping punches continues to bust up the Chinese competitor, smashing Aori’s nose in the process. Blood leaks from several places on Aori’s face like the Doomguy low on health, but he is very much still in the fight as he lets Marcos have it with a quick combination. Marcos keeps his guard high, so Aori kicks low repeatedly. Marcos retaliates after absorbing one particularly stern low kick, and he whips his right hand into action. Marcos prods out a jab and draws out some oncoming fire from Aori, taking advantage of this by blasting Aori with an uppercut. Aori tanks it and moves forward, and the horn signals the end of the first round.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Marcos
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Marcos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Marcos

Round 2
The fighters touch ‘em up before getting back to it, and Marcos is ready to engage first as he clubs Aori with a short right hand. The unbeaten Peruvian presses forward into a clinch, and he presses Aori against the fence. When circling away, Marcos lines up a low kick that disrupts the balance of his opponent. Aori hits the deck, and Marcos pounces in an effort to finish the fight with a flurry of heavy firsts. Aori survives the worst of it and gets back to his feet, and crimson fluid trickles from additional places on his face after taking serious damage. Marcos spins with a back elbow that misses the mark, and he continues assaulting Aori’s lead calf with gnarly kicks. Aori tries valiantly to throw back and even catches Marcos with a two-punch salvo, but Marcos’ volume and power is breaking Aori. “Soncora” sits down on a left to the liver that lands with an audible thud, and he appears to find his mark almost every time he throws a strike. Aori swings backs, and his fingers stretch out as one drifts into Marcos’ eye. Marcos needs just a few seconds to recover, and when they get back to business, Marcos aims a front kick to the body but ends up glancing it off the cup. Aori takes 30 seconds to catch his wind before resuming, and he gets right in Marcos’ face and throws a few punches. Aori concludes his combination with a kick square on Marcos’ cup that looks to be a bit of payback, and Marcos groans as Herzog pauses the action for the third time in a few seconds after a trio of unfortunate fouls. Herzog warns Aori for his strike, and Marcos is ready to go after about 45 seconds of recovery. Marcos lets loose with a kick, and Aori responds with one that slaps into his inner thigh and draws a reaction from Marcos. Aori jumps in the air with an attempted strike, and Marcos meets him in the air with a front kick to the groin. Herzog rolls his eyes and calls time, and informs both fighters through their translators that there are to be no more accidents, and that points will be deducted for any additional fouls. Aori drops to his knees and dry heaves from the groin strike, and Herzog allows Aori to recover for a minute before calling in the doctor. Aori pulls himself back to his feet after two minutes elapse, but he is clearly compromised and not having a good time right now. Not wanting to cool down, Marcos shadowboxes and jogs in his corner, but Aori crouches down and drops back to a knee. Time continues to tick off the clock, and Aori reaches the five-minute mark. Herzog asks him if he is able to continue, and Aori does not say anything and bends over. Herzog recognizes that Aori is in no shape to fight another professional combatant aiming to take his head off, and he waves the fight off. Due to the inadvertent groin strike—Aori was in the air when Marcos caught him with a front kick, a total accident—and the fact that it did not reach Round 3, this fight should be declared a no contest. When the result is read, Marcos breaks into tears, with his stellar performance invalidated due to a fluke kick. On the other side of the equation, Aori is assisted out of the cage, with the damage of two direct groin shots too much to bear on his own.

The Official Result
Daniel Marcos vs. Qileng Aori is Ruled a No Contest (Accidental Groin Kick) R2 3:28
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Angelo acknowledges that Daniel Marcos looked poor in his last fight against Davey Grant, with low volume and a lack of pressure. However, he emphasizes looking at the broader body of work, where Marcos has shown effective striking, power, and takedown defense. He believes Marcos should be more technical and busy, and should win, but the recent performance makes him hesitant. He notes the odds are -200, which he finds a bit rich given the last fight.

"Daniel Marcos is the pick... Daniel Marcos that fought David Grant has a tough night, Daniel Marcos before the David Grant fight should walk through a Corey Lang."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Big Brady picks Daniel Marcos to win by decision. He notes that Marcos is a much more skilled striker with a lot of tools on the feet, while Aoriqileng is a brawler who is very hittable. He expects the fight to go 15 minutes and Marcos to outpoint Aoriqileng, though he mentions a slight concern about corrupt judges.

"this should be Daniel Marcus just outpointing Ari long across 15 minutes here so give me Daniel Marcos by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Cody picks Marcos, noting he is a superior fighter with good volume. Aoriqileng is fun but often falls behind on the scorecards and has takedown defense issues. Marcos should outpoint him. Cody suggests a prop on Marcos by decision or by KO at +300.

Marcos by KO (+300)
"Marcos by decision would be my best get my my best guess"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Marcos has a solid all-around game with good calf kicks and the ability to mix in grappling. He should be able to batter Aoriqileng's lead leg and eventually look for takedowns. Aoriqileng has struggled against better competition and his wins are against subpar opponents. Marcos is undefeated and should continue his run with a decision victory.

"I look for maros to batter the lead leg of ARA Lang and then eventually look for those takedowns if those open themselves for him and I look forward to maros continuing his undefeated run going to 16-0 and picking …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Paul also picks Marcos, calling it a massive mismatch. He notes Aoriqileng's low output and poor takedown defense. Marcos is a volume striker who should pick him apart. Paul likes Marcos by KO at +300 as a prop.

Marcos by KO (+300)
"Marcos is the pick for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Marcos because he believes Aoriqileng is a worse version of Davey Grant, who Marcos already faced. He notes that Marcos showed good striking defense against Grant's unorthodox style and expects Aoriqileng to slow down after the first round, allowing Marcos to win a decision.

"I'm going to go with Daniel Marcos to start off the card because he's fighting aori Chang... I think if he stays alive past the first round we're going to see aori Chang start to slow down against him."
WIN vs Davey Grant
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Jul 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Marcos 0 70 of 215 32% 70 of 215 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Davey Grant 0 48 of 140 34% 49 of 141 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Marcos 0 16 of 49 32% 16 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Davey Grant 0 13 of 35 37% 13 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Daniel Marcos 0 26 of 75 34% 26 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Davey Grant 0 15 of 51 29% 15 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Daniel Marcos 0 28 of 91 30% 28 of 91 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Davey Grant 0 20 of 54 37% 21 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Marcos 70 of 215 32% 17 of 127 27 of 55 26 of 33 70 of 213 0 of 2 0 of 0
Davey Grant 48 of 140 34% 21 of 90 6 of 24 21 of 26 47 of 139 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Marcos 16 of 49 32% 1 of 28 7 of 10 8 of 11 16 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Davey Grant 13 of 35 37% 1 of 15 2 of 8 10 of 12 13 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Daniel Marcos 26 of 75 34% 9 of 48 8 of 15 9 of 12 26 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Davey Grant 15 of 51 29% 4 of 33 3 of 8 8 of 10 14 of 50 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Daniel Marcos 28 of 91 30% 7 of 51 12 of 30 9 of 10 28 of 89 0 of 2 0 of 0
Davey Grant 20 of 54 37% 16 of 42 1 of 8 3 of 4 20 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Davey Grant vs. Daniel Marcos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Marcos (-140), Grant (+120)

Round 1
In the one corner, “Dangerous Davey” Grant (15-6, 6-5 UFC) stands firm, ready to represent his home country. In the other, lead-fisted and lead-kneed Peruvian Marcos (14-0, 1-0 UFC) puts his unblemished record on the line. Grant has only been defeated in the past via submission, while Marcos has never before forced a foe to tap out. Something’s gotta give in this newly minted bantamweight main card opener that could be a banger, and it begins with a glove touch. Referee Marc Goddard adjusts his gloves, pulls up his pants and sits back to observed the proceedings, and The two fighters come out to the middle of the cage to engage, and Grant goes first with a heavy leg kick. Grant walks down Marcos and kicks on the inside, and he throws one more to the outer calf. Marcos replies with one that sends Grant off-balance, but the Brit adjusts himself and continues coming forward. Grant pushes out a front kick, and he wings a right hand that slides off the top of the guard to bounce off Marcos’ temple. Marcos shrugs at him and kicks so hard on the calf that he takes Grant off his feet. Grant jumps back up and rips a kick to the ribs, and he checks a kick that comes his way. Grant turns an uppercut into a spinning back fist, and Marcos dances out of the way and keeps his guard up high to stop another strike from getting through. Grant comes out swinging, throwing a right hook that puts himself off-balance, and Marcos does not capitalize on it but is able to eat up Grant’s calf with another kick. Grant strides in with a side kick, and he jumps forward with a stomping kick to the knee. The unbeaten fighter ducks down and absorbs a side kick, and Grant then plants the ball of his foot on the chest to follow. Grant snipes out a left hook when Marcos advances, and he jumps forward with a knee that glances off his intended target. Grant counters a leg kick with a clean right hand, and he kicks the body and backs off when Marcos throws hands. Marcos walks “Dangerous Davey” down and kicks him in the chest, and Grant is able to time a right hand when Marcos loads up. Grant sweeps the leg as he comes forward, and he chains a calf kick into a head kick with the same leg. Marcos gives a body kick back, only for Grant to defend against it. Marcos reaches his man with a right hook, and Grant spins with a wheel kick that ricochets off the chest of his foe. Marcos rubs his chest, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Grant
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Grant
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Grant

Round 2
The 135ers bump fists before getting after it, and Grant spurs into action in a hurry with several kicks to multiple targets. Grant sprints and pulls back to draw a reaction, and he does this to clip Marcos with a short left hook. Grant aims a right hand when Marcos rushes at him with a jump knee, and Grant scampers away before it reaches him. Grant kicks the side and goes with a hook kick up high, and they proceed to throw fists at the same time. Marcos catches Grant with a solid right hand, and Grant gathers his thoughts and chips at the lead wheel of his foe. Grant punches his way into a combination that ends with a low kick, and he misses with a wheel kick as Marcos backs off. Grant nails a leg kick and wings a right hook over the top, and Marcos ignores it and tries to counter with a right hand. A few jabs from the Peruvian fighter have bloodied Grant’s nose up, and Grant pays it no mind as his offense is still as active as ever. Grant strings three hooks together and pushes off the chest with the ball of his foot when Marcos attempts to reply. Marcos swings as hard as he can with a right hand, and Grant ducks and nails Marcos with a front kick on the chin. Grant swings a high kick that grazes off the red hair of his opponent, and Marcos responds with two punches and a step-in kick that splits the uprights and slams square into Grant’s cup. Grant grimaces and bends over as Goddard calls time, and Grant tells Goddard he is good to go after about 45 seconds off. When restarting, Marcos offers an apologetic glove touch. Grant gets going again with a huge right hand, and he watches Marcos comes towards him and raise up a hook kick. Grant plants his shin on the lower calf of “Soncora,” and he steps in with an elbow. Grant trips on Marcos’ leg when spinning with a strike, and Marcos’ jabs are starting to bloody Grant up further. “Dangerous Davey” plants a dangerous right hand on the nose, and Marcos shakes his head and defends against the standing hook kick. Grant lets go with several punches and a side kick, and he gives chase as Marcos backpedals. The round ends with the lower part of Grant’s face covered in blood.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Grant
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Grant
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Grant

Round 3
Grant nods and winks at Marcos to lead off the last round, and the two hug it out before getting down to business. Marcos strikes first with a calf kick, and Grant strides forward and lets go with a spinning wheel kick. It only takes a jab or two from Marcos to bust up Grant’s nose again. Grant absorbs a jab and goes forward into a takedown. The unbeaten fighter stands him up, and the two fighters stand in the pocket and trade. Marcos backs off first, and Grant follows him down with a head kick, a front kick and a right hand. Grant puts three fists on Marcos before Marcos is able to land one. Marcos, out of nowhere, jumps at his man with a knee, and Grant takes it flush and keeps coming ever forward. Marcos waves his arms around, and Grant comes at him with a knee. Marcos swats him aside and strafes on the outside, and it is up to Grant to initiate the offense. Grant spins with a back fist, and then keeps spinning to throw other strikes. Marcos nods approvingly from the strikes, and he keeps backing off as Grant is pushing the pace. Grant walks through jabs to swing with far harder strikes, and one such blow comes in the form of a right to the body. Marcos jabs up his man, and Grant unloads with a right hand that bounces off the shoulder. Grant walks Marcos down, getting in a leg kick and a right hand, and Marcos tries to reply with a left hook that only slightly connects. Grant ducks a flailing fist to come in and land a straight right to the body, and a subsequent kick makes Marcos drops his guard and back off. Grant jumps with a knee, and when he misses and lands, Marcos greets him with a stern right hand down the pipe. Grant doggedly pursues his opponent, throwing everything and the kitchen sink at him. Marcos times a takedown out of nowhere, hitting it with ease. Grant frantically works his way up with the fence behind him, and he separates. Grant spins with a wheel kick that bounces off the shoulder, and he raise his arm to draw Marcos into a final brawl. Grant spams any kind of kick he can think of, all while Marcos backs away, until time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Grant (30-27 Grant)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Grant (30-27 Grant)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Grant (30-27 Grant)

The Official Result
Daniel Marcos def. Davey Grant via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Angelo is very confident in Daniel Marcos, believing the odds are incredible value. He thinks Davey Grant is chinny and if he can't get a takedown (which he hasn't since 2021), he will get lit up on the feet. He has a half-unit bet at -121 and calls it some of the best value on the card.

half unit bet at -121
"I'm confident Daniel Marcos I have a half a unit on him at minus 121 And I genuinely think as of right now this minute at that 121 line that's some of the best value you're going to get on …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Big Brady picks Daniel Marcos by decision. He likes Marcos' striking and volume, and thinks he can outwork Grant over 15 minutes. He notes Grant is durable and has power, but Marcos is younger and has upside. He is concerned about Marcos' chin not being tested. He thinks it will be close but Marcos' volume and youth give him the edge.

by decision
"give me Marcos to win this fight by decision I think it is close I think it is competitive but I like a striking I like his volume"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Davey Grant

Cody picks Grant, questioning Marcos's hype. He notes Grant has fought tougher competition (Vera, Yanez) and is a gatekeeper. He thinks the line is an overreaction to Marcos's win over Oliveira. He sees Grant as a live dog.

"Davey Grant will be my pick here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Daniel picks Daniel Marcos, calling him the best Peruvian prospect ever and praising his professional approach, training in Florida, and high-tech recovery. He thinks Marcos's pressure and intensity make opponents fight uncharacteristically, as seen in the Simon Oliveira fight. He acknowledges Davey Grant's toughness and experience but believes Marcos is catching him at the right time. However, he is not willing to lay -140 and says he would be interested if the price drops to around -115. He passes on betting but picks Marcos to win.

Daniel says he is not willing to lay -140 and would be interested if the price drops 25 cents. He picks Marcos but does not bet.
"I'm just not willing to lay the chalk at minus 140 to find out"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

James picks Daniel Marcos to win. He thinks Marcos is a better striker than Grant, with cleaner technique and better footwork. He believes Marcos can play the range game and punish Grant with straight shots. James notes that Grant is older and may be slowing down, while Marcos is on an upward trajectory. He acknowledges that this is a step up in competition for Marcos and that Grant has knockout power, but he favors Marcos's skills and potential.

"I like Marcos in this spot um I bet on Marcos before at an underdog price"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

The host picks Daniel Marcos, believing his overall game, output, grappling, and calf kicks will neutralize Grant's power. He expects Marcos to withstand Grant's early power and win by decision. He notes it's a stiff test but thinks Marcos passes.

"give me Marcos by decision but again big spot for him in Grants you know neck of the woods let's see if he shows up I think he does and I think he wins by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Paul leans toward Marcos, noting his undefeated record and willingness to engage. He thinks Marcos can outwork Grant, though Grant has power and grappling advantages. He is not fully confident and calls it a dog or pass.

"I feel like I'm leaning towards him if if I had to just chalk it up to a dog or pass situation"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Davey Grant

The MMA Guru picks Davey Grant, initially considering Daniel Marcos but ultimately favoring Grant's experience and power. He notes Grant's win over Aiemann Zahabi is underrated and that Marcos was timid in his fight against Simon Oliveira. The Guru believes Grant's size, power, and front kicks will overwhelm Marcos, and predicts a KO win in a scrap against the cage.

KO
"I'm gonna go Davey Grant here a little bit more damaging"
KO (knee to the body and punches) R2 2:18 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Marcos 0 23 of 70 32% 25 of 73 0 of 5 0% 0 0 2:15
Saimon Oliveira 1 53 of 78 67% 59 of 84 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Marcos 0 13 of 40 32% 15 of 43 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:05
Saimon Oliveira 0 27 of 40 67% 31 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:42
2 Daniel Marcos 0 10 of 30 33% 10 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Saimon Oliveira 1 26 of 38 68% 28 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Marcos 23 of 70 32% 7 of 47 3 of 7 13 of 16 20 of 63 3 of 7 0 of 0
Saimon Oliveira 53 of 78 67% 31 of 52 20 of 23 2 of 3 36 of 58 16 of 19 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Marcos 13 of 40 32% 4 of 27 3 of 5 6 of 8 10 of 35 3 of 5 0 of 0
Saimon Oliveira 27 of 40 67% 16 of 28 10 of 11 1 of 1 17 of 30 10 of 10 0 of 0
2 Daniel Marcos 10 of 30 33% 3 of 20 0 of 2 7 of 8 10 of 28 0 of 2 0 of 0
Saimon Oliveira 26 of 38 68% 15 of 24 10 of 12 1 of 2 19 of 28 6 of 9 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Big Brady is not extremely impressed with either fighter but sees more paths to victory for Daniel Marcos. He notes Marcos made significant improvements from his earlier fights to the Contender Series, particularly in striking and takedown defense. He believes Marcos can get takedowns against Oliveira, who has poor takedown defense, though Oliveira is dangerous off his back. He calls it a sketchy fight he's staying away from betting.

"I think Marcos has more paths to Victory here as a dog so I'm gonna pick him to win this is kind of a sketchy fight a fight I'm going to be staying away from"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Cody picks Daniel Marcos as a slight underdog, noting his striking and power. He says Marcos showed good volume and power on Contender Series, and that Oliveira is reckless and has poor wrestling. He thinks Marcos can win a striking battle. He mentions Marcos' cardio issues but thinks he can push through. He says this is a 50/50 fight and he'll take the plus money.

mentions Marcos' flying knees; says Oliveira is reckless
"I'm gonna go with Daniel Marcos yeah"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Saimon Oliveira

Connor agrees, noting Oliveira has more experience and is more aggressive. Marcos may struggle with Oliveira's pressure and guillotine threat.

"I agree. I have very little to add."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Paul picks Daniel Marcos, agreeing with Cody. He notes Oliveira's recklessness and poor wrestling. He says Marcos has good striking and power. He mentions Marcos' cardio issues but thinks he can win. He says he's not confident but will pick Marcos.

mentions Oliveira's spinning back fists; says Marcos has good leg kicks
"I'm leaning towards Marcos as well he threw like a bunch of like you know flying knees on Contender Series"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

The Guru sees this as a 50/50 matchup but leans towards Marcos as the underdog. He notes that Oliveira barely scraped by on the contender series and was ragdolled by Tony Gravely, who got 11 takedowns on him. Marcos showed good takedown defense against Brandon Lewis, stuffing 11 of 13 takedowns, and has been more active recently, while Oliveira hasn't fought in a year. The Guru gives a slight grappling advantage to Marcos due to his hustle and stubbornness in positions.

"I'm gonna side with Daniel Marcos as the underdog here because this is kind of like a 50 50 matchup and they have made Simon Oliveira quite a decent favorite so I'm leaning towards Daniel Marcos"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Saimon Oliveira

Zane picks Oliveira because he is cleaner and more aggressive. Marcos is gritty but lacks clean technique. Oliveira's experience and aggression should give him the edge. He notes Oliveira's guillotine could be a threat.

"I think this will just be a technical edge and an aggression edge."
Adrian Yañez - Fight History
SCHED vs Cody Garbrandt
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
Draw vs Ricky Simón
Draw R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Mar 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ricky Simón 0 44 of 139 31% 52 of 149 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:06
Adrian Yañez 1 71 of 169 42% 73 of 171 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ricky Simón 0 12 of 55 21% 12 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Adrian Yañez 0 16 of 46 34% 16 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ricky Simón 0 15 of 35 42% 23 of 45 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:06
Adrian Yañez 0 15 of 29 51% 16 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Ricky Simón 0 17 of 49 34% 17 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Adrian Yañez 1 40 of 94 42% 41 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ricky Simón 44 of 139 31% 33 of 121 7 of 13 4 of 5 38 of 132 2 of 2 4 of 5
Adrian Yañez 71 of 169 42% 63 of 159 6 of 8 2 of 2 67 of 156 0 of 0 4 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ricky Simón 12 of 55 21% 9 of 48 1 of 4 2 of 3 12 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Adrian Yañez 16 of 46 34% 15 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0 16 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ricky Simón 15 of 35 42% 13 of 31 1 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 28 2 of 2 4 of 5
Adrian Yañez 15 of 29 51% 13 of 26 2 of 3 0 of 0 15 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ricky Simón 17 of 49 34% 11 of 42 5 of 6 1 of 1 17 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Adrian Yañez 40 of 94 42% 35 of 88 3 of 4 2 of 2 36 of 81 0 of 0 4 of 13
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Ricky Simón

Angelo picks Ricky Simon because he believes Simon's relentless pressure and wrestling will negate Yanez's technical striking. He notes that Simon's takedown defense was exposed against Honey Balcelos, but Balcelos is a high-level wrestler, while Yanez has no offensive takedowns. Angelo also mentions the hometown advantage and the possibility of a close decision, but expects Simon's wrestling to be effective enough to secure the win.

"I think Ricky's pressure is going to negate the technical striking. I think he's going to open up the takedowns."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 23, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Ricky Simón

Big Brady picks Ricky Simón to win by decision, but he is hesitant. He notes that Simón has been on a three-fight losing streak and his cardio and wrestling have declined. However, he believes Simón's wrestling upside is key, as Adrian Yañez has not faced a wrestler in the UFC. Simón is the hometown fighter, and Brady thinks he can mix in takedowns, cage push, and win minutes in the clinch to secure a decision.

Simón by decision
"I think Ricky Simón can cage push here, win minutes in the clinch. I think he can mix in the takedowns, and I think he wins this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Cody picks Yanez, believing his striking and takedown defense will be enough to win rounds. He's concerned about Simon's hometown advantage but thinks Yanez lands the more significant shots.

"My official pick is actually Adrian Yanez."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Connor picks Yañez, thinking that Simón doesn't want to win just by holding someone down and will engage in the pocket, where Yañez can catch him. He notes that Simón is square and takes his eyes off the target, and Yañez has power.

"I'm going to take Yanya's."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Daniel believes Yanez's boxing and takedown defense will be too much for Simon, who he thinks is past his best. He cites sources saying Yanez is sharp again and likes the underdog value.

"I'm picking Adrian Yanez as an underdog pick here at UFC Seattle."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Mar 28, 2026 (fight day)
Ricky Simón

The host picks Simón despite his poor fight IQ and tendency to strike instead of wrestle. He argues that Simón's wrestling is his path to victory, and Yanez's takedown defense is inflated because he has only faced strikers. Footage from Yanez's fight against Daniel Marcos shows he can be taken down and held down easily. However, the host warns that Simón may not commit to grappling, making this a risky bet.

Pass on fight spread and over/under; odds not favorable.
"If you came to me and you said, 'Hey Chris, I've got a crystal ball... I can promise you Ricky Simon will grapple his dick off for 15 minutes nonstop.' I'd be like, 'Great. Let's bet 100 units on Simon.'"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

The host sees Yañez as the better striker with good takedown defense and getups, allowing him to keep the fight standing. He believes Yañez's striking edge and reach advantage will allow him to piece up Simón, and he even suggests Yañez might score a knockout. He notes Simón's reliance on power and wrestling, but thinks Yañez can avoid the big shots and find a finish.

knockout
"I still think that Yanz will showcase his striking in edge here, which is why I like him as a plus uh 125 dog. I think so much so that he might even be able to uncor a big knockout …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ricky Simón

Paul leans Simon, citing his wrestling and hometown crowd. He thinks Simon's control time could sway judges, especially with the Seattle crowd.

"I think Simon wins this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Ricky Simón

The MMA Guru picks Ricky Simón, noting his improved demeanor and grappling ability. He believes Simón is well-rounded enough to grapple his way to a decision victory. He criticizes Adrian Yañez's recent performances, pointing out losses to Rob Font and Daniel Marcos, and suggests Yañez struggles against capable opponents. He expects Simón to mix in grappling and land good shots on the feet.

"I'm going to go with Ricky Simone. He looks mean for this one."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Ricky Simón

Zane picks Simón for the wrestling, noting that Simón has shown more interest in keeping people down recently. He is hesitant because Yañez has good defensive wrestling and is a higher output fighter, but he thinks Simón's wrestling will be the difference in a close fight.

"I think I'm going to take Ricky Simone here for the wrestling."
LOSS vs Daniel Marcos
Decision (split) (28–29, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley · Dec 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Marcos 0 79 of 183 43% 85 of 189 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:15
Adrian Yañez 0 86 of 147 58% 95 of 156 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Marcos 0 24 of 55 43% 29 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Adrian Yañez 0 29 of 46 63% 30 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:46
2 Daniel Marcos 0 41 of 98 41% 41 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Adrian Yañez 0 39 of 70 55% 39 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Daniel Marcos 0 14 of 30 46% 15 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:52
Adrian Yañez 0 18 of 31 58% 26 of 39 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Marcos 79 of 183 43% 57 of 156 8 of 10 14 of 17 79 of 182 0 of 1 0 of 0
Adrian Yañez 86 of 147 58% 60 of 111 9 of 16 17 of 20 81 of 142 3 of 3 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Marcos 24 of 55 43% 15 of 46 2 of 2 7 of 7 24 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Adrian Yañez 29 of 46 63% 14 of 30 4 of 5 11 of 11 27 of 44 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Daniel Marcos 41 of 98 41% 29 of 82 5 of 6 7 of 10 41 of 97 0 of 1 0 of 0
Adrian Yañez 39 of 70 55% 29 of 52 5 of 10 5 of 8 39 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Daniel Marcos 14 of 30 46% 13 of 28 1 of 2 0 of 0 14 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Adrian Yañez 18 of 31 58% 17 of 29 0 of 1 1 of 1 15 of 28 1 of 1 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Angelo picks Yañez as the better boxer with faster hands, expecting a striking-only fight. He notes Yañez's technical boxing, fight IQ, and 100% takedown defense, while Marcos is undefeated but untested against high-level strikers. He believes Marcos will be forced into a boxing match where Yañez has the edge. He cannot bet on this fight due to unknowns about Marcos.

No bet.
"I think yany is a little faster and I think he has the better hands... I'm going to pick yanes here but I'm I can't bet on this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Big Brady picks Daniel Marcos to win by second-round knockout. He likes Marcos's diverse striking (leg kicks, body kicks, head kicks) and thinks Yañez is hittable and has durability issues, noting Yañez was knocked out by Rob Font. He expects Marcos to hurt Yañez and finish him.

"I'm going Daniel Marcos here I think he's going to pick apart Yan and eventually hurt him and get him out of there in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Cody picks Daniel Marcos, citing his durability, cardio, and pressure fighting. He notes that Yañez has been knocked out by strikers and struggles against volume. Marcos's ability to take a shot and keep coming forward is key. Cody sees this as a striker vs striker matchup where Marcos's durability gives him the edge.

"I think Marcos wins given you're getting the best version of Marcos but the one outlier is that fight with Davey Grant where he just doesn't do anything."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Connor picks Marcos, citing that his game has smaller gaps and he is more consistent. He notes that Marcos can target Yañez's leg kicks and build momentum over rounds, while Yañez may fade if his initial blitz fails. Connor acknowledges it's a close fight and could go either way.

Yañez opened at +124, now +180; Marcos opened at -139, now -207
"I'll take Marcos. Just, you know, to justify it a little, it's really just like I say, the gaps in his game are so much smaller."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Daniel Vreeland picks Daniel Marcos, citing his high fight IQ and well-rounded skills. He notes that Yañez is one-dimensional with fast hands but predictable, while Marcos can box, kickbox, wrestle, and do jiu-jitsu. Vreeland expects Marcos to avoid unnecessary pocket exchanges and use a varied attack. He mentions the price (-225) is a bit high but still picks Marcos.

"I'mma pick Danielle Marcos come out here and get this dub"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Lucrative James picks Daniel Marcos to win, citing Marcos' superior striking skills, clinch work, and leg kicks. He acknowledges Marcos' cardio issues in round three but believes Marcos has enough early upside to win the first two rounds or secure a finish. He notes Yañez's toughness and cardio but points out Yañez's vulnerabilities to leg kicks and head punches, as seen in past losses.

"I think Marcos is going to win the fight but I would be scared to bet on Marcos if the fight gets into round three."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Marcos's calf-kicking abilities will render Yañez defenseless, leading to a TKO victory within the second or third round. The public line movement from -170 to -230 supports this pick.

wins by TKO in round 2 or 3
"I believe his calf kicking abilities will render yanes defenseless and that will allow Marcos to put together a TKO Victory within the second or third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Paul leans towards Marcos, citing his durability and undefeated record. He notes that Yañez has questionable durability and has been knocked out before. Paul is concerned if Marcos doesn't push the pace, but overall favors Marcos's volume and pressure.

"I think the the durability is what makes me side with Marcos obviously he's undefeated."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

The MMA Guru initially leans toward Adrian Yañez due to his slick hands and underdog status, but after reviewing Marcos' undefeated record and tougher competition on the regional scene, he switches to Daniel Marcos. He predicts Marcos will use lateral movement and leg kicks to win a close decision (29-28). He admits Yañez may have the talent edge but trusts Marcos' resume.

decision 29-28
"I'll go Daniel Marcos then I'll go Marcos winning a close fought 2928 decision over Adrian yanz"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Zane leans toward Yañez because of his flashier punching and ability to hurt opponents. He notes that Marcos has a tendency to have inactive periods and can be hurt, which could be dangerous against Yañez. However, Zane is concerned about Yañez's leg kick defense and his tendency to start fast and fade.

Yañez opened at +124, now +180; Marcos opened at -139, now -207
"I think I'll take Yanyas. I think he might hurt Marcos."
TKO (punches) R1 2:47 · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · May 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Adrian Yañez 1 36 of 56 64% 36 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Vinicius Salvador 0 17 of 34 50% 17 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Adrian Yañez 1 36 of 56 64% 36 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Vinicius Salvador 0 17 of 34 50% 17 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Adrian Yañez 36 of 56 64% 27 of 45 1 of 2 8 of 9 15 of 28 0 of 0 21 of 28
Vinicius Salvador 17 of 34 50% 6 of 20 6 of 6 5 of 8 17 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Adrian Yañez 36 of 56 64% 27 of 45 1 of 2 8 of 9 15 of 28 0 of 0 21 of 28
Vinicius Salvador 17 of 34 50% 6 of 20 6 of 6 5 of 8 17 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Angelo acknowledges Adrian Yañez is the more technical striker with fast hands and real power, but he is coming off back-to-back finish losses and is a 3-to-1 favorite, which Angelo considers poor value. Vinicius Salvador is durable, has forward pressure, and is more well-rounded. Angelo leans Yañez due to his takedown defense and striking edge, but will not bet at current odds.

"I'm going to lean him here but Jesus 3 to1 Adrien yanz just got finished in back-to-back fights he should not be a 3 to1 favorite"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Cody sees this as a bounceback fight for Yañez, who is a slow starter but has the skills to take over. He notes Salvador is a career flyweight moving up, with no real power and poor takedown defense. Cody predicts Yañez will find his rhythm in the second round and potentially knock Salvador out in the third, as Salvador will feel the power of a true bantamweight.

Yañez round 3 knockout (+700)
"I got yanz to take the bounce back and do exactly what he's supposed to do with it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Yañez has superior technical striking and underrated power. Salvador is 0-2 in the UFC, showboats, and has an unorthodox style but a good chin. Yañez should counter Salvador's flashy strikes and chip away to win a decision. A knockout is possible but not likely due to Salvador's durability.

"I think that Janis is superior technical striking will come in Advantage especially when Salvador tries to showb or throw a lot of flashy strikes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Paul expects Yañez to get back on track after two tough losses. He notes Salvador is moving up from flyweight, where he was 0-2, and his striking volume and wrestling are not elite. Paul believes Yañez's boxing and body work will be too much, and he expects a finish later in the fight.

"Everything kind of points towards Adrian Yan is getting back on track."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

The MMA Guru picks Adrian Yañez to win by TKO over Vinicius Salvador, calling it a 'layup' for Yañez. He criticizes Salvador's losses and lack of urgency, and believes Yañez's boxing will be superior. He notes that Yañez has shown takedown defense improvements and expects him to get back on track with a finish.

TKO
"I think yanz is gonna get a TKO win here unless Salvador shows off some great grappling"
TKO (leg kick) R2 2:26 · UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · Oct 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Martinez 2 36 of 58 62% 36 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Adrian Yañez 0 20 of 72 27% 20 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Martinez 1 16 of 30 53% 16 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Adrian Yañez 0 14 of 46 30% 14 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jonathan Martinez 1 20 of 28 71% 20 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Adrian Yañez 0 6 of 26 23% 6 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Martinez 36 of 58 62% 7 of 15 0 of 2 29 of 41 36 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Adrian Yañez 20 of 72 27% 9 of 59 10 of 12 1 of 1 17 of 66 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Martinez 16 of 30 53% 1 of 5 0 of 2 15 of 23 16 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Adrian Yañez 14 of 46 30% 5 of 37 8 of 8 1 of 1 13 of 44 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Jonathan Martinez 20 of 28 71% 6 of 10 0 of 0 14 of 18 20 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Adrian Yañez 6 of 26 23% 4 of 22 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 22 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Angelo picks Adrian Yañez despite the massive line movement toward Martinez. He believes Yañez's boxing is cleaner and faster, and his 100% takedown defense should keep the fight standing. However, he notes Yañez needs to not be gun-shy after his knockout loss and let his hands go. He expects a great fight and potential Fight of the Night.

"Adrian jannis is going to be the pick but you know we're going to need him to let his hands go"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Big Brady picks Adrian Yañez in a close fight. He thinks Yañez has the volume and power advantage, with great boxing and hand speed, while Martinez relies on kicks. He sees it as a 15-minute striking match that goes to decision, and worries about judges but leans Yañez as a bounce-back spot after his loss to Rob Font.

"I think I'm going to pick Giannis here not a not a ton of confidence because I like Martinez quite a bit"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Cody picks Martinez, arguing that Yañez is overhyped and has not faced top competition. He points to Yañez's struggles against Randy Costa and Davey Grant, and his loss to Rob Font. Cody highlights Martinez's five-fight win streak, including a dominant win over Cub Swanson, and believes his jab and kicks will trouble Yañez. He also notes Martinez's improved cardio and seasoning at Factory X.

"Jonathan Martinez is the pick"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

The host picks Adrian Yañez as an underdog, surprised at the betting public flipping on him after his loss to Rob Font. He believes Yañez's boxing combinations and power will counter Martinez's kicking game. He expects Yañez to crash the pocket and land a knockout, likely in the first two rounds.

by KO in rounds 1-2
"I was more than happy to take the underdog shot here on yany and uh again surprised at the shortsightedness of the the the betting Community"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Yañez has not been tested by wrestlers and that Martinez could mix in takedowns. He points out that Martinez's kicks can keep the fight at range, neutralizing Yañez's boxing. Paul also mentions that Martinez's volume is lower but his striking is effective, and he expects Martinez to win two of three rounds.

"I'm with you Jonathan Martinez is the pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Martinez over Adrian Yañez. He notes Yañez's boxing is good but he has a weakness against kicks, as shown in his fight with Davey Grant (which he thinks Grant won). He praises Martinez's five-fight win streak, including wins over Cub Swanson and Said Nurmagomedov, and his ability to mix in low kicks. He believes Martinez has better momentum and will be more switched on, winning a close decision.

decision
"I'm going to go with Jonathan Martinez over Adrien yunz I think he's got a lot better momentum right now"
LOSS vs Rob Font
TKO (punches) R1 2:57 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rob Font 1 33 of 75 44% 33 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Adrian Yañez 0 25 of 54 46% 25 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rob Font 1 33 of 75 44% 33 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Adrian Yañez 0 25 of 54 46% 25 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rob Font 33 of 75 44% 30 of 69 2 of 5 1 of 1 27 of 66 1 of 2 5 of 7
Adrian Yañez 25 of 54 46% 21 of 49 1 of 2 3 of 3 25 of 51 0 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rob Font 33 of 75 44% 30 of 69 2 of 5 1 of 1 27 of 66 1 of 2 5 of 7
Adrian Yañez 25 of 54 46% 21 of 49 1 of 2 3 of 3 25 of 51 0 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Angelo picks Adrian Yañez but is not highly confident, noting that Rob Font is a clean technical striker who is very live. He thinks Yañez is a younger version of Font, faster and with more power, but Font has a good chin and could win. He warns that this could be a changing of the guard, but Font could also remind everyone he's still elite.

"Jana's the pick but Rob font super live here clean technical Striker"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Big Brady picks Adrian Yañez despite wanting to pick Rob Font, due to Font's recent durability issues. He notes Font has taken massive damage in his last two fights and has been dropped repeatedly. He believes Yañez has power and volume, and can win by decision or knockout. He predicts a decision win for Yañez.

"give me honest here I'm gonna say Yana's by ... decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rob Font

Cody agrees with Paul on Font. He points out that Yañez struggled early against Randy Costa, getting dominated in round one before Costa gassed. Cody believes Font's constant jab and long-range strikes will disrupt Yañez's timing and prevent him from landing his power shots. He sees Font's volume as overwhelming and thinks Yañez may struggle to find his rhythm. Cody also notes Font by decision at +200 is worth a look.

Font by decision at +200
"I'm with you I'm with you the knockdowns are a bit of a concern Yanez does hit very very hard but the volume is just overbearing"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Connor picks Yañez because Font's defensive flaws are well-documented: he has poor footwork after committing to his right hand and relies on a static high guard. Yañez is a fantastic counter puncher who will find openings as Font falls into predictable rhythms. However, Connor notes that Yañez can be a slow starter and may lose the first round if Font's jab takes over. He also mentions that Yañez's high-output style can lead to fatigue, as seen against Davey Grant. Despite these concerns, Connor believes Yañez's sharp countering will eventually catch Font.

Font opened at +126, now +155; Yañez opened at -140, now -175. Connor thinks the odds are getting too wide given Yañez's unproven resume at this level.
"I'll take Yanez as well, but this is a great fight for that. It's a genuine divisional sorting matchup."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Jacob is extremely high on Adrian Yañez, calling him his guy and predicting he will be champion by 2025. He praises Yañez's beautiful boxing, combinations, and power. He believes Yañez will find the timing and land the more impactful shots, possibly finishing inside the distance. He acknowledges that Yañez can be a slow starter but trusts his dog mentality.

inside the distance
"Adrian Yanez wins this fight I think he sends out inside the distance"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Rob Font

Font has high output, a great jab, and good footwork, but his durability is questionable after losses to Aldo and Vera. Yañez is a crisp boxer with power, but this is his toughest test. Font's volume and jab could frustrate Yañez, and Font's cardio should hold up. However, if Font's chin is shot, Yañez could land a big shot. I lean Font by decision but with hesitation.

"I'm gonna lean with the veteran here I'm gonna lean with the guy that showcases that he has the style to give a guy like Giannis fits"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rob Font

Paul likes Rob Font as a plus-money underdog. He questions Yañez's level of competition, noting his wins are over lower-tier fighters and his only step-up against Davey Grant was a close split decision. Paul highlights Font's elite striking volume, footwork, and jab, and notes that Font has gone five rounds with top bantamweights. He acknowledges Font's tendency to get knocked down but believes his volume and experience will overwhelm Yañez.

Font by decision at +200 considered
"this kind of plus money we're going to need dogs and we're in Florida it does feel like Rob Funk and outwork almost anybody in the division"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Adrian Yañez

The MMA Guru picks Adrian Yañez to win by decision. He expects Font to have success early with his jab and takedowns, but Yañez will weather the storm and start finding his range. He predicts Yañez will hurt Font badly in rounds two and three, with moments of near-finishes, but Font will survive to the final bell. He compares it to a Marlon Vera-esque performance.

"I'm gonna go with Adrian Yanez by decision"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Zane picks Yañez because Font's defensive issues are severe: he gets hit cleanly in every fight and has been knocked down repeatedly. Yañez is a sharp counter puncher who will exploit Font's tendency to leave himself open after throwing the right hand. Zane acknowledges that Yañez may start slow and lose the first round, but he expects Yañez to figure out Font's rhythm and land big shots. He also notes that Font's chin is a major concern, as even if Yañez fades, he only needs one clean shot to change the fight.

Font opened at +126, now +155; Yañez opened at -140, now -175. Zane thinks the odds are getting too wide.
"If you can see one fighter clearly winning a round of a fight and the other rounds being close, pick the clear round winner."
WIN vs Tony Kelley
TKO (punches) R1 3:49 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Emmett · Jun 18, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Adrian Yañez 1 35 of 67 52% 36 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Tony Kelley 0 20 of 49 40% 21 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Adrian Yañez 1 35 of 67 52% 36 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Tony Kelley 0 20 of 49 40% 21 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Adrian Yañez 35 of 67 52% 29 of 60 6 of 7 0 of 0 29 of 60 1 of 2 5 of 5
Tony Kelley 20 of 49 40% 12 of 29 6 of 16 2 of 4 20 of 48 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Adrian Yañez 35 of 67 52% 29 of 60 6 of 7 0 of 0 29 of 60 1 of 2 5 of 5
Tony Kelley 20 of 49 40% 12 of 29 6 of 16 2 of 4 20 of 48 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Tony Kelley

Angelo picks Tony Kelley in an upset, citing his forward pressure, volume, and ability to disrupt Adrian Yañez's rhythm. He notes Yañez's slow starts and willingness to brawl, which plays into Kelley's hands. He mentions Kelley's impressive win over Randy Costa (129 strikes to 32) and believes Kelley can maintain pace.

"i think i'm going tony kelly here because even though yanez is the more technical striker his slow start and willingness to engage in a brawl can lead him down the wrong path"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Big Brady picks Adrian Yañez to win by third-round knockout. He notes Yañez is a slow starter but has clear power advantage and good combinations, while Kelley is very hittable with 45% striking defense. He expects Kelley to win the first round but Yañez's damage to accumulate and lead to a late knockout.

third round knockout
"I like giannis here i like him by second or third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Cody picks Yañez but emphasizes the over 2.5 rounds as the best bet on the card. He notes neither fighter has been finished and Yañez tends to have close fights. He thinks Yañez's technical striking will win but the fight goes to decision. He calls the over 2.5 a 'face slapper' line.

Over 2.5 rounds (biggest investment of the week)
"over two and a half i think is the play of the card here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 16, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Daniel Levi leans Adrian Yañez, citing his cleaner hands and improved kicking game, plus the hometown advantage in Texas. However, he notes Yañez absorbs a lot of strikes (nearly six per minute) and Tony Kelley is a durable, high-output fighter who could make it competitive. Levi thinks it will be a close three-round fight and Yañez may get a decision, but the -280 price is too high for comfort. He acknowledges Kelley at +240 has value.

Yañez -280 is too high; Kelley +240 has value; close decision likely
"i lean yanez but i mean i don't fault y'all for taking that shot on tony kelly"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tony Kelley

Paul is considering a Tony Kelley play, noting Yañez's struggles against aggressive fighters and his close split decisions. He thinks Kelley's durability and improved training with Andrea Lee make him a live underdog. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds.

Over 2.5 rounds; Tony Kelley by decision +600
"i'm contemplating a tony kelly play truth be told"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

The MMA Guru picks Adrian Yañez, though he worries about his performance against Davey Grant. He believes Tony Kelley is tough but has been eking out close decisions. He expects Yañez to use better distance control and body shots, winning a decision (29-28 or 30-27) in a scrappy fight, with Kelley surviving but losing.

"i'm gonna be sliding with adrien yanez here... i think he'll invest in body shots he has got good take down defense"
WIN vs Davey Grant
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate · Nov 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Adrian Yañez 0 98 of 273 35% 98 of 274 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Davey Grant 0 100 of 255 39% 100 of 255 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Adrian Yañez 0 29 of 74 39% 29 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Davey Grant 0 24 of 65 36% 24 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Adrian Yañez 0 27 of 92 29% 27 of 93 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Davey Grant 0 31 of 81 38% 31 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Adrian Yañez 0 42 of 107 39% 42 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Davey Grant 0 45 of 109 41% 45 of 109 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Adrian Yañez 98 of 273 35% 40 of 182 40 of 68 18 of 23 98 of 272 0 of 1 0 of 0
Davey Grant 100 of 255 39% 66 of 212 14 of 22 20 of 21 100 of 255 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Adrian Yañez 29 of 74 39% 5 of 42 15 of 21 9 of 11 29 of 74 0 of 0 0 of 0
Davey Grant 24 of 65 36% 15 of 52 5 of 9 4 of 4 24 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Adrian Yañez 27 of 92 29% 19 of 66 3 of 18 5 of 8 27 of 91 0 of 1 0 of 0
Davey Grant 31 of 81 38% 21 of 70 4 of 5 6 of 6 31 of 81 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Adrian Yañez 42 of 107 39% 16 of 74 22 of 29 4 of 4 42 of 107 0 of 0 0 of 0
Davey Grant 45 of 109 41% 30 of 90 5 of 8 10 of 11 45 of 109 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Davey Grant vs. Adrian Yanez

Round 1
The prelims were rough, but an immediate “Fight of the Night” contender greets fans in the main card opener between Yanez (14-3, 3-0 UFC) and Grant (13-5, 4-4 UFC), in an intriguing striker-grappler affair at 135 pounds. Yanez has won all three of his UFC outings by knockout, while Grant has never been knocked out with his last two victories also by KO. Something might have to give, and referee Herb Dean is ready to catch the chips that fall where they may. They touch gloves before getting down to business, and Yanez tries to get the fight over early with a huge right hand that whizzes past his target. Grant backs away, chops at the leg a few times, and then goes up higher with a kick. Yanez looks to counter Grant’s kicks, or attempts to check them down low. Yanez walks through a few kicks, and Grant keeps letting go with leg strikes of all direction. The front kicks land flush, and the Brit turns through a kick to spin with a back fist that just misses. An inside leg kick from Grant trips Yanez down to the ground, but Yanez gets up and aims a right hand across the bow. Grant stays composed, but Yanez bears down on him with one to the body and one to the head. Yanez scores a leg kick, and he clips his foe with a left hand. “Dangerous Davey” just misses with a spinning wheel kick, and Yanez blocks a subsequent flying knee so that he can let go with a few punches up top. Body kicks from both feet connect for Grant, and he just misses with a looping left hand. Yanez does not appear concerned and is calmly attempting to counter, with a right hook that is not far from the mark. Grant kicks Yanez in the calf again, causing Yanez to lose his footing, and Yanez gathers himself with a one-two that cuts Grant on the nose. Grant puts a few punches on Yanez, and Yanez slips a spinning wheel kick that comes right after. Grant stands tall and gets nailed with a left and a right, and the Houstonian ducks a punch to nail Grant with a right hand. Grant shakes it off and raises his arms in the air to celebrate a tough scrap, and they stand right in front of one another and bang. When they back away, Grant keeps his distance with reaching front and high kicks. Grant takes a leg kick, and a punch that busts his nose up a little more. The Brit spins with a hook kick to the legs in the vein of Andy Hug, and Yanez shrugs it off so that he can wind up a right hand. Grant swings and misses, and he turns all the way through with a tornado punch after a full rotation. Right after that bounces off Yanez’ shoulder, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Yanez
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Yanez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Yanez

Round 2
The bantamweights clap hands before getting right to it, with heavy strikes right out of the gate. Grant backs off to land a low kick, and then a combination of punches follows. Shortly after another kick to the calf from Grant, Yanez snipes him with a right hand but Grant is not fazed. They trade ferociously, and one kick collides with Yanez’ cup, but Yanez does not want to pause. Grant keeps his range with kicks, and he tries to spin with them but Yanez sees them coming. Yanez brushes off punches and kicks, but a scraping finger to the eye makes the American take a break. Dean brings in the doctor, who lets Yanez wipe his own eye out. After a minute to recover and blink it out, they clap hands to start off again. Grant surges forward with a single-leg takedown try immediately, and Yanez stuffs it and even tags Grant with a right hand as they separate. Yanez begins to chop at Grant’s legs with kicks, and they go back to full-throated brawling, with each landing cleanly and not budging. Grant’s nose gets battered even more after absorbing blows, but he does not seem to care as he spins with a back fist and then a follow-up punch with the momentum. Yanez stays composed, but Grant swipes a right hand around the guard right in the face. Yanez scores a one-two, and Grant is right there to answer back. These two bantamweights are not afraid of the other’s power, and they have complete faith in their chins as they are unloading with ferocious strikes. A looping punch leads to a knee, and Grant lands to score a few punches and shake Yanez up a little. The Houstonian wears it well and marches forward to engage, but Grant’s looping shots still find their home on the nose. Grant keeps his hands wide, using awkward striking and the occasional head kick to keep Yanez honest. A few more dangerous shots from “Dangerous Davey” connect right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Grant
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Yanez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Grant

Round 3
The gloves get touched to start the last round, and they unload immediately. Grant lands a few kicks, including a head kick that glances off the side of Yanez’ head, and Yanez tries to return fire. Yanez flicks out a jab or two, and Grant still manages to connect with his wild right hand. Grant rushes forward with his sprinting, spinning blow, but Yanez sees it coming and tries to intercept him with a heavy calf kick. Grant checks it, and Yanez marks him up with a one-two. Grant shrugs it off to attack with a flying knee, and he winds up with power punches even as Yanez scores a clean combination right on the face. Yanez sinks in a one-two, and Grant comes back at him with a spinning back kick. Yanez connects with a single right hand, and Grant eats it so that he can chain together a combination of punches and a head kick. Yanez’ strikes are cleaner and crisper, while Grant’s looping punches sound louder. Yanez dings Grant with a few punches, and Grant is right there every time to throw right back at him even as the blood continues to flow. Yanez sticks out a piston-like jab several times to bloody Grant up badly, and Grant is able to still be in his face throwing everything and the kitchen sink. The easiest pick for “Fight of the Night” so far is going down in the cage tonight, and Yanez triples up on a jab only to absorb a flush overhand right. Grant lines up a left hook, and then another, as Yanez tries to defend himself. Yanez continues to batter Grant with a jab, and the jab is disrupting the ridiculous hooks of his opponent. Yanez is able to stick and move, rolling with the telegraphed power punches and letting them hit his shoulder. Yanez lands jab after jab, and Grant lets it go with a leaping kick, a few wild punches, a knee and a couple more punchers for good measure. Yanez stays light on his feet, dodging and weaving from most of them while piercing the guard with his jab. The fight ends with a fun exchange, putting a cap on the best fight on the card so far. When the battle ends, Yanez collapses to the ground in tears, letting out all of his emotions as he mourns his fallen coach Saul Soliz.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Yanez (29-28 Yanez)
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Yanez (30-27 Yanez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Yanez (29-28 Yanez)

The Official Result
Adrian Yanez def. Davey Grant via Split Decision (27-30, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 17, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Angelo picks Adrian Yañez but is hesitant, noting Davey Grant has a clear path to victory via grappling. He acknowledges Yañez is the cleaner striker with a good chin, but Grant is a grappler at heart who could mix in takedowns. He does not place a bet because he sees value on Grant as a live dog. He expects Yañez to win but not confidently enough to bet.

DraftKings prices: Yañez 9100, Grant 7100; monkey knife fight more/more
"the pick is janez"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Big Brady picks Adrian Yañez to win by third-round knockout. He praises Yañez's striking, speed, and volume, and notes his 100% takedown defense in the UFC. He believes Davey Grant's recent striking success won't work against Yañez, and that Yañez has paths to victory both on the feet and on the ground. He predicts Yañez will be the first to knock out Grant.

win by knockout, third round
"give me adriana's to win by third round knockout i think he does get him out of there and davey grant's never been knocked out but i think that does change here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Cody picks Yañez despite the high price. He praises Yañez's crisp boxing and compares him to Jorge Masvidal. He notes that Yañez is a slow starter but takes over as opponents fade, as seen against Randy Costa. He believes Yañez's striking is superior and that Grant is hittable, having been wobbled in recent fights. Cody is concerned about Grant's takedowns and top game, but thinks Yañez's takedown defense will hold up and he will win rounds two and three.

"got to go with giannis do i love the price no no i don't but i agree adrian yanez is the favorite and i'm gonna have to play him"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Daniel Levi confidently picks Adrian Yañez to knock out Davey Grant. He praises Yañez's clean hands, countering ability, and toughness, noting that he has never been knocked out. He criticizes Grant's chin-up style and wild looping shots, believing Yañez's superior boxing will capitalize on openings. Levi predicts Yañez will be the first to knock out Grant.

knockout
"i think adrian yanez has way better hands than jonathan martinez and i think that adriana's will be able to capitalize on these openings and i think he's going to be the first man in mma history to knock out …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Lock thinks Yañez will be the first to knock out Grant. He notes Grant has never been KO'd but has taken damage, especially in his last fight. Yañez has straight punches and speed advantage, and Lock believes he will counter Grant's looping hooks. He likes Yañez by KO at around -105 rather than the -310 moneyline.

Adrian Yañez by KO -105, Adrian Yañez round 3 +800
"I think yanez is going to be the one that finally puts that never been knocked out argument to rest for davey grant."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Paul likes Yañez's hands but is concerned about the -320 price. He points out that Yañez had a bad first round against Randy Costa, looking gun-shy and overwhelmed by volume. He notes that Davey Grant is tough, has never been knocked out, and brings volume and pressure. Paul thinks Yañez could be a live bet candidate if he starts slow again. He is waiting for weigh-ins before committing fully.

Paul mentions he'll be waiting for weigh-ins and might consider a live bet after round one if Yañez starts slow.
"i think giannis at minus 320 is another one of these favorites that is a little bit too much juice here um i'll be waiting for weigh-ins and stuff"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

The MMA Guru picks Adrian Yañez to win by KO in the first round. He notes that Davey Grant is open to shots, as seen in his fight against Jonathan Martinez where he was dropped. He highlights Yañez's quick hands, reach advantage, and training with Aljamain Sterling, which gives him confidence in grappling defense. He expects Yañez to find his range, land a big shot as Grant loads up, and finish with ground and pound.

first round TKO
"i'm going with adrian yanez here i think he wins this one by ko in the first round"
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Angelo picks Yañez as the better boxer with faster hands, expecting a striking-only fight. He notes Yañez's technical boxing, fight IQ, and 100% takedown defense, while Marcos is undefeated but untested against high-level strikers. He believes Marcos will be forced into a boxing match where Yañez has the edge. He cannot bet on this fight due to unknowns about Marcos.

No bet.
"I think yany is a little faster and I think he has the better hands... I'm going to pick yanes here but I'm I can't bet on this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Big Brady picks Daniel Marcos to win by second-round knockout. He likes Marcos's diverse striking (leg kicks, body kicks, head kicks) and thinks Yañez is hittable and has durability issues, noting Yañez was knocked out by Rob Font. He expects Marcos to hurt Yañez and finish him.

"I'm going Daniel Marcos here I think he's going to pick apart Yan and eventually hurt him and get him out of there in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Cody picks Daniel Marcos, citing his durability, cardio, and pressure fighting. He notes that Yañez has been knocked out by strikers and struggles against volume. Marcos's ability to take a shot and keep coming forward is key. Cody sees this as a striker vs striker matchup where Marcos's durability gives him the edge.

"I think Marcos wins given you're getting the best version of Marcos but the one outlier is that fight with Davey Grant where he just doesn't do anything."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Connor picks Marcos, citing that his game has smaller gaps and he is more consistent. He notes that Marcos can target Yañez's leg kicks and build momentum over rounds, while Yañez may fade if his initial blitz fails. Connor acknowledges it's a close fight and could go either way.

Yañez opened at +124, now +180; Marcos opened at -139, now -207
"I'll take Marcos. Just, you know, to justify it a little, it's really just like I say, the gaps in his game are so much smaller."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Daniel Vreeland picks Daniel Marcos, citing his high fight IQ and well-rounded skills. He notes that Yañez is one-dimensional with fast hands but predictable, while Marcos can box, kickbox, wrestle, and do jiu-jitsu. Vreeland expects Marcos to avoid unnecessary pocket exchanges and use a varied attack. He mentions the price (-225) is a bit high but still picks Marcos.

"I'mma pick Danielle Marcos come out here and get this dub"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Lucrative James picks Daniel Marcos to win, citing Marcos' superior striking skills, clinch work, and leg kicks. He acknowledges Marcos' cardio issues in round three but believes Marcos has enough early upside to win the first two rounds or secure a finish. He notes Yañez's toughness and cardio but points out Yañez's vulnerabilities to leg kicks and head punches, as seen in past losses.

"I think Marcos is going to win the fight but I would be scared to bet on Marcos if the fight gets into round three."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Marcos's calf-kicking abilities will render Yañez defenseless, leading to a TKO victory within the second or third round. The public line movement from -170 to -230 supports this pick.

wins by TKO in round 2 or 3
"I believe his calf kicking abilities will render yanes defenseless and that will allow Marcos to put together a TKO Victory within the second or third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Paul leans towards Marcos, citing his durability and undefeated record. He notes that Yañez has questionable durability and has been knocked out before. Paul is concerned if Marcos doesn't push the pace, but overall favors Marcos's volume and pressure.

"I think the the durability is what makes me side with Marcos obviously he's undefeated."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

The MMA Guru initially leans toward Adrian Yañez due to his slick hands and underdog status, but after reviewing Marcos' undefeated record and tougher competition on the regional scene, he switches to Daniel Marcos. He predicts Marcos will use lateral movement and leg kicks to win a close decision (29-28). He admits Yañez may have the talent edge but trusts Marcos' resume.

decision 29-28
"I'll go Daniel Marcos then I'll go Marcos winning a close fought 2928 decision over Adrian yanz"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Zane leans toward Yañez because of his flashier punching and ability to hurt opponents. He notes that Marcos has a tendency to have inactive periods and can be hurt, which could be dangerous against Yañez. However, Zane is concerned about Yañez's leg kick defense and his tendency to start fast and fade.

Yañez opened at +124, now +180; Marcos opened at -139, now -207
"I think I'll take Yanyas. I think he might hurt Marcos."