vs
-800 +750
UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley · Dec 14, 2024 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
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Age 28
Height 6' 4"
Reach 79.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 35
Height 6' 4"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Navajo Stirling
6.25 SLpM
52.0% Str. Acc.
2.67 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
0.98 TD Avg
28.0% TD Acc.
82.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Tuco Tokkos
2.12 SLpM
40.0% Str. Acc.
4.27 SApM
46.0% Str. Def.
4.21 TD Avg
47.0% TD Acc.
33.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Navajo Stirling
Moneyline
BetWay -800
KO/TKO
DraftKings -185
Submission
FanDuel +2600
Decision
FanDuel +290
Tuco Tokkos
Moneyline
BetMGM +750
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1600
Submission
FanDuel +3000
Decision
FanDuel +1300
Navajo Stirling - Fight History
SCHED vs Ion Cuțelaba
WIN vs Bruno Lopes
KO R2 4:05 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Mar 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Navajo Stirling 1 63 of 119 52% 90 of 157 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:31
Bruno Lopes 0 28 of 63 44% 36 of 71 0 of 8 0% 0 0 1:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Navajo Stirling 0 22 of 54 40% 23 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Bruno Lopes 0 16 of 36 44% 23 of 43 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:50
2 Navajo Stirling 1 41 of 65 63% 67 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:23
Bruno Lopes 0 12 of 27 44% 13 of 28 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Navajo Stirling 63 of 119 52% 30 of 74 21 of 27 12 of 18 43 of 96 2 of 3 18 of 20
Bruno Lopes 28 of 63 44% 15 of 42 6 of 9 7 of 12 23 of 57 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Navajo Stirling 22 of 54 40% 5 of 28 13 of 17 4 of 9 21 of 53 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bruno Lopes 16 of 36 44% 9 of 25 3 of 5 4 of 6 12 of 31 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Navajo Stirling 41 of 65 63% 25 of 46 8 of 10 8 of 9 22 of 43 1 of 2 18 of 20
Bruno Lopes 12 of 27 44% 6 of 17 3 of 4 3 of 6 11 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bruno Lopes vs. Navajo Stirling
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Stirling (-500); Lopes (+375)

Round 1
While the two light heavyweights about to hit the stage came into the promotion with high finish rates, neither man can seem to buy a stoppage since getting here. Stirling (8-0, 3-0 UFC) has earned three straight victories under the UFC banner, but they all came after 15 minutes of combat apiece. Standing across the cage from him will be Lopes (14-2, 1-1 UFC), who had only before gone to a decision twice prior to beating Magomed Gadzhiyasulov in his promotional debut last year—Dustin Jacoby punched him out a few months later. The third man in the Octagon will be referee Keith Peterson, who will keep nonsense to a minimum.
They do not touch gloves, as Stirling wants to start off with long, reaching kicks. Lopes chambers his own leg kick that lands with an audible thud, and he tries to offer another but does not put his hips into it. Stirling cannot say the same, slamming his shin into the Brazilian’s calf and welting it up already. They trade these kicks until Stirling mixes up one upstairs, and Lopes is wise to it and parries a jab that follows. They clash together with big swings, with Lopes landing a right hand on the outside. Lopes keeps working the lead leg, and he allows Stirling to come at him so he can lob a counter. Stirling pops Lopes in the chops with a clean left hand, and he pushes out a front kick that gets caught. When he retrieves his leg, he boots Lopes in the face with the other. Lopes catches that one too, and he tries to take the fight down. Stirling retains his balance, so Lopes elbows him in the face.
Lopes chooses to disengage, and he shoots for a double that Stirling sees coming. Stirling elbows him in the face to break off, and he slings a right hand that is ducked in the nick of time. Stirling bullies Lopes to the cage, finding him with his hard swings including a powerful one-two. Lopes ties him up to stop from getting punched in the face for a moment, and Stirling separates and resets. Lopes tries a spinning back elbow when Stirling advances, and he gets kicked in the guts and catches the kick. Stirling springs away to not get taken down, and he lobs a pair of right hands to the head and body. Lopes takes a left hand on the chin before circling, and he catches another kick but lets it go because he cannot do anything with it. Lopes tries to pursue a double, and when that fails, he spins with an elbow and gets kicked in the face. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Stirling

Round 2
Lopes strikes first to start off the round, and this results in both men smacking one another around with calf kicks. Stirling breaks the chain with one to the body, and he leans back as the Brazilian loops a left hand at him. Lopes is out of range, slugging at air while he takes body shots. Lopes counters a right hand up top when Stirling goes for a step-in knee, and he attempts a single-leg entry but lets the leg go and resets. Stirling advances, and he walks face-first into a right hand. Stirling chews up the front leg with his calf kicks, and he defends a single and leans against the cage. Lopes wraps an elbow over the top, and he goes for another and is kneed when they break up. As Lopes kicks the leg, Stirling jabs the body, and they clash together. Lopes goes to the well with a spin, but the elbow is out of range. Stirling drives him back with body shots, and he rifles a right hand up top that stings Lopes.
Lopes has to gather his thoughts as a left hand sets him down, and when he gets to his knees, Stirling punishes him with elbows to bowl him back over. Lopes sits up, and Stirling snatches up a guillotine choke, but this only allows Lopes to stand. Stirling knocks Lopes back down, and Lopes survives but is taking serious punishment. Stirling unleashes a flurry of punches but cannot put Lopes away, with Peterson watching on closely. Stirling holds on to the back of Lopes’ right ankle while busting Lopes in the face with his left hand, and he does not punch himself out but is slowly while Lopes’ face is increasingly bloody.
Stirling falls into a high mount, and he beats on the Brazilian with a nasty elbow and a prolonged barrage of punches and hammerfists. An elbow from the Kiwi further slashes Lopes’ face open, and blood sprays from the gash as Stirling drums the wounded man out with a few more punches. Peterson has no choice but to step in
, with Lopes’ visage quickly transforming into that of a horror movie. Not the artsy type either, but rather an 80s slasher where there is more blood than sense. Stirling walks off and shrugs to the camera as if he knew this was going to happen the whole time, and he is now a perfect 9-0 while registering his first stoppage as a UFC athlete.

The Official Result
Navajo Stirling def. Bruno Lopes R2 4:05 via TKO (Elbows and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Angelo picks Navajo Stirling despite previously being a vocal hater. He acknowledges Stirling's kickboxing skills, mobility, and takedown defense, and believes he is the better striker. He expects Stirling to avoid takedowns and win a straightforward decision, though he is not confident in a finish.

"Navajo Sterling should win this. He's going to be the pick, and I think it's a showcase fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Big Brady picks Navajo Stirling to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Bruno Lopes is very hittable and has a poor chin, having been knocked out by Heber and Dustin Jacoby. Stirling is a good kickboxer with elite volume, landing over six significant strikes per minute. Brady believes Stirling will touch Lopes up and finally get his first UFC knockout.

Stirling by KO round 2
"I think he knocks out Bruno Lopes. I just don't trust the chin at all of Bruno Lopes here."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Cody sees Stirling as a rising prospect with improving skills, while Lopes has been knocked out recently. He expects Stirling to win, possibly by KO.

"Navajo Sterling is the side for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Connor also picks Stirling, agreeing that Lopes is a front runner and that Stirling's wrestling and size will be enough. He notes that Stirling is still raw but has the tools to win.

"I'm happy with steps down lateral moves, prelim card fights."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Daniel expects Stirling to use his speed and length to outpoint Lopes, though he doubts a knockout. He notes Lopes's chin issues and confidence questions after a KO loss.

"I'm definitely going to pick him to win this fight so give me Nawaz Sterling to come out here and win another decision."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Mar 28, 2026 (fight day)
Bruno Lopes

The host sees massive value on Lopes as a +471 underdog, giving him a 35-40% chance to win. He believes Lopes' relentless grappling and cardio can wear down Sterling, who has shown vulnerability to wrestling and fades in later rounds. Footage shows Sterling getting taken down and controlled by lesser grapplers, while Lopes commits fully to takedowns and has excellent chain wrestling. The host acknowledges Lopes is likely to lose but insists the odds are far too wide.

Also likes Lopes +3.5 fight spread and over 1.5 rounds as prop bets.
"These odds are crazy... I personally feel it's more than reasonable to give Lopez a 35 to 40% chance of winning this fight, which again gives you an absolutely massive margin of value over the bookies."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

The host is high on Stirling's well-rounded game, noting his kickboxing background and improving grappling. He believes Stirling's defensive grappling will force Lopes to strike, where Stirling will pick him apart and eventually land a knockout. He references Lopes' recent knockout loss to Dustin Jacoby as evidence that Stirling can replicate that success.

knockout
"I'm going to go Navajo Sterling here. I'm going to go Sterling by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Paul agrees, noting Stirling's development and Lopes' chin issues. He thinks Stirling will get the job done.

"I got Navajo Sterling, for sure."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Navajo Stirling

The MMA Guru picks Navajo Stirling, noting his size, reach, and undefeated record. He believes Stirling's striking combinations and takedown defense will be key. He mentions that Bruno Lopes has some grappling ability but thinks Stirling's athleticism and system will keep the fight standing. He predicts a finish in the second or third round by TKO.

TKO in round 2 or 3
"I think Navajo Sterling's going to win this fight in that combination in the pocket type of range."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Zane picks Stirling because Lopes is a front runner who gets run over when not in front, and Stirling has shown good defensive wrestling and ability to get up. He notes that Stirling is still developing but this is a good step-back fight.

"This is a really good booking to me. Like just low down on cards, give him guys about the level he's already fighting."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Sep 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Navajo Stirling 0 81 of 158 51% 101 of 193 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:53
Rodolfo Bellato 0 43 of 89 48% 62 of 111 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Navajo Stirling 0 37 of 62 59% 41 of 67 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:58
Rodolfo Bellato 0 15 of 33 45% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
2 Navajo Stirling 0 16 of 39 41% 31 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:52
Rodolfo Bellato 0 6 of 19 31% 19 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
3 Navajo Stirling 0 28 of 57 49% 29 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Rodolfo Bellato 0 22 of 37 59% 23 of 39 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Navajo Stirling 81 of 158 51% 44 of 102 35 of 53 2 of 3 70 of 145 10 of 12 1 of 1
Rodolfo Bellato 43 of 89 48% 21 of 60 12 of 19 10 of 10 39 of 81 4 of 6 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Navajo Stirling 37 of 62 59% 21 of 37 15 of 23 1 of 2 32 of 56 5 of 6 0 of 0
Rodolfo Bellato 15 of 33 45% 4 of 17 5 of 10 6 of 6 13 of 30 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Navajo Stirling 16 of 39 41% 11 of 29 5 of 10 0 of 0 12 of 34 3 of 4 1 of 1
Rodolfo Bellato 6 of 19 31% 5 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 2
3 Navajo Stirling 28 of 57 49% 12 of 36 15 of 20 1 of 1 26 of 55 2 of 2 0 of 0
Rodolfo Bellato 22 of 37 59% 12 of 26 6 of 7 4 of 4 20 of 34 2 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Navajo Stirling vs. Rodolfo Bellato
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Stirling (-240); Bellato (+200)

Round 1
Two light heavyweights who prefer the knockout will square off in the preliminary headliner. Stirling (7-0, 0-0 UFC) out of City Kickboxing has never tasted defeat, while Bellato (12-2-1, 1 NC; 1-0-1, 1 NC UFC) is unbeaten in the Octagon with a fairly unusual three-fight stretch in it. Referee Mike Beltran dons his proverbial hard hat ahead of what should be a striker’s delight, one that commences with no sight of a glove touch.
With Bellato coming at him, Stirling is prepped and ready with long push kicks and straight punches. Bellato swipes at him with a left hook, using it to close the distance between them and tie them up. Bellato stalls out the position in the clinch, getting off a knee or two but finding himself taking some solid elbows up close. The elbows from Stirling allow him to turn the tables and put Bellato’s back to the wall, where he starts beating on his foe with right hands. Stirling tries for a spinning elbow on the break, but it bounces off the shoulder. They trade heavy leg kicks, and it is Bellato who follows with a front kick. Stirling wings a right hand that skims the top of the head, and he plants a one-two down the pipe right after. The City Kickboxing prospect rips the body a few times with his fists, and then aims his kicks to the same spot.
Bellato unloads with power strikes, one of his winging kicks brushing the cup, and nothing happens other than Bellato getting close enough to clinch again. Stirling breaks out of it and resets, reaching a right hand behind the ear. Bellato checks a kick, but a liver kick that follows lands flush. Stirling stays committed to body work even with Bellato headhunting him, and his own offense reminds Bellato that he too can attack the midsection. A few punches to the torso from Bellato lead into a clinch, and like the previous times, Stirling frees himself. Two body shots lead to a pair upstairs, and Stirling opens up with power punches to all targets. Bellato counters with a powerful knee on the jaw, and Stirling reels and then comes back firing with more blows. Before punching himself out, Stirling calms himself down and engages a clinch on his own accord. Bellato sees an opening and spins with a back fist that just misses, and they both flail at one another until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Stirling

Round 2
Bellato practically sprints out of his corner to engage, but it is Stirling who has the offense locked and loaded. In rapid succession, the Kiwi fires off a pair of head kicks, and he works the body and ducks when Bellato hurls a counter right hand his way. In a brief clinch, Stirling strings a knee into several power punches up top, and his forward pressure results in him considering a takedown. When Stirling goes for it, he wrenches the Brazilian off his feet and plops him down on the canvas. Landing in half guard, Stirling starts landing strikes, and Bellato complains about a foul he feels he sustained. Beltran tells him to fight on. Stirling slowly but effectively drops down a number of left hands, and Bellato defends himself by gripping hold of Stirling’s wrist.
Bellato recovers full guard, and his own few attacks off his back open up Stirling’s nose and start the blood flowing. Stirling stacks his opponent up to open the guard, and he winds up with a fierce elbow that slashes off the top of the dome. Bellato sits up and explodes to his feet, with Stirling still holding him tightly. Bellato knees the body to break free, and he aims a few more strikes to the midsection to give Stirling something to think about. Stirling, meanwhile, wipes his nose and unloads with massive power punches. Stirling backs off and jams the body with a few kicks, and Bellato loads up on a heavy right hand. Bellato rips a left to the body and a right to the head, and he dodges the Stirling offense and counters with a left up top. When Stirling sells out for a big strike, Bellato takes him to the floor. The tepid round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bellato
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bellato
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bellato

Round 3
The Brazilian wants to lead the dance, and he walks into a few long punches and ignores them to swing a left hand over the guard. Stirling goes to the body, and Bellato hurls a right hand at his melon. Stirling fakes a takedown, and Bellato does the same thing except he appears to want it after a brief odd clash. They both trade heavy punches, and Stirling gets the worst of it but is not compromised. Bellato takes a jabbing kick to the stomach, and jabs fly from both men. Stirling hunts for a takedown, and Bellato turns him about and rams him into the wall. The two separate, and Bellato keeps after his opponent with jabs and power punches to the ribs. A shot from Bellato follows the left to the body.
Bellato sells out for the takedown, trying several different means including a brief back take where he drags his man down using his own weight against him. “Trator” succeeds in getting Stirling down for a moment or two, but Stirling gets back up. Both men appear quite fatigued, so the action slows to little more than a prolonged, grueling clinch battle. Stirling spins to break, and Bellato awkwardly spins back and has his fist bump off the guard. Bellato shoots, and Stirling shuts it down and lets his hands go. Bellato spins again, eats a counter right hand and then takes a head kick. Stirling nails his foe with a right hand, and Bellato responds with jabs and a failed capoeira kick. The round comes to a close, and scores could be all over the map.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bellato (29-28 Bellato)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Stirling (29-28 Stirling)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Stirling (29-28 Stirling)

The Official Result
Navajo Stirling def. Rodolfo Bellato via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Angelo picks Navajo Stirling, acknowledging the local hype but believing Stirling has a higher skill ceiling and has never quit. He notes that Rodolfo Bellato is decent but can be sloppy and has put on weird performances. However, he is not confident enough to bet at the current odds (around minus 300), as he hasn't seen elite takedown defense or power from Stirling.

"I'm going to pick Navajo Sterling. I think he has the higher ceiling as far as skill sets are concerned. I've never seen him quit and put on some [ __ ] weird performance. I've seen Ralpho do that. So, …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Big Brady picks Navajo Stirling to win by second-round knockout. He praises Stirling's takedown defense, volume, and power, and criticizes Bellato's poor striking defense and tendency to eat punches. He believes Stirling will land a big shot and get his first UFC finish.

second round knockout
"I like Sterling here. I like Sterling to win this fight by knockout. I think he gets that first finish in the U."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Cody picks Stirling, believing his striking is superior and he can knock out Bellato, who has poor durability. He acknowledges Bellato's wrestling could be a threat but thinks Stirling's length and improving takedown defense will allow him to get back up. He notes Stirling is young and improving, while Bellato is a glass cannon.

"I still feel like Sterling came over with just a kickboxing base. He's got very little experience. Only seven and0 as a pro now."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Bellato is a steady, experienced fighter who can pressure and clinch for three rounds. He points out that Sterling has been struggling with lesser opponents and that Bellato's durability and consistency could be too much for the green prospect. He also mentions that Bellato can be caught cold early, but if he survives, he tends to warm up and get harder to hurt.

"I'll slide with you actually... Bellato if he's just going to go out there and be there and put together a physical fight on Sterling round after round, probably will get that chance."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

James picks Navajo Sterling confidently, praising his striking pedigree from City Kickboxing and noting Bellato's poor UFC performances, including being badly hurt in multiple fights. He believes Sterling is a much better striker and will likely hurt Bellato, though he is unsure about the method—predicting a KO but acknowledging Bellato's toughness could lead to a decision.

knockout
"I'm picking Navajo Sterling in this one. I'm picking Navajo Sterling via KO in this one."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

James confidently picks Navajo Stirling to win by KO, citing Bellato's poor striking defense and history of being knocked out. He believes Stirling's striking is superior and that he will finally get his first UFC knockout. He acknowledges bias as Stirling trains at City Kickboxing.

by KO
"I predict Navajo Sterling to get a KO in this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

The host believes Stirling will pick apart Bellato with relative ease. He thinks even if Bellato tries to take the fight to the ground, Stirling's defenses are good enough to thwart that and then pick apart Bellato and win by knockout.

win by knockout
"I think Sterling will be able to pick apart Bellato with relative ease here. Even if Bellto looks to take this fight to the ground, I think Sterling's defenses are good enough to thwart that and then from there really …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

The Guru picks Navajo Stirling confidently, seeing him as a fundamentally sound striker with underrated grappling. He believes the UFC is feeding him Rodolfo Bellato as a favorable matchup, similar to the Goutierre experiment. He expects a dominant TKO win, possibly earning a $50k bonus.

TKO; 50k bonus
"I'm gonna go with Navajo Sterling. I think he's better, man."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Zane thinks Bellato's steady pressure and clinch work will be a tough test for the green Sterling. He notes that Sterling has struggled with basic pressure from lesser opponents, and Bellato's consistency could force Sterling to fight back. However, he acknowledges Sterling could catch Bellato early with a big shot.

Odds comment: lines should be very close; Sterling opened -155 now -235, Bellato opened +135 now +200
"I think this might be the point where he takes his first loss... Bellato is the picture of steadiness... I think he might be able to take the win off of Sterling."
WIN vs Ivan Erslan
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · May 10, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Navajo Stirling 1 110 of 225 48% 124 of 243 3 of 5 60% 0 0 3:01
Ivan Erslan 0 36 of 100 36% 63 of 129 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Navajo Stirling 0 31 of 76 40% 31 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ivan Erslan 0 12 of 30 40% 12 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Navajo Stirling 0 19 of 40 47% 27 of 51 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:16
Ivan Erslan 0 11 of 34 32% 27 of 50 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:41
3 Navajo Stirling 1 60 of 109 55% 66 of 116 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:45
Ivan Erslan 0 13 of 36 36% 24 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Navajo Stirling 110 of 225 48% 54 of 147 26 of 40 30 of 38 84 of 181 3 of 4 23 of 40
Ivan Erslan 36 of 100 36% 28 of 90 7 of 9 1 of 1 36 of 100 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Navajo Stirling 31 of 76 40% 2 of 31 11 of 20 18 of 25 31 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ivan Erslan 12 of 30 40% 11 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0 12 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Navajo Stirling 19 of 40 47% 4 of 22 8 of 10 7 of 8 19 of 39 0 of 1 0 of 0
Ivan Erslan 11 of 34 32% 7 of 29 3 of 4 1 of 1 11 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Navajo Stirling 60 of 109 55% 48 of 94 7 of 10 5 of 5 34 of 66 3 of 3 23 of 40
Ivan Erslan 13 of 36 36% 10 of 32 3 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ivan Erslan vs. Navajo Stirling
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Stirling (-298), Erslan (+240)

Round 1
A pair of strikers at 205 pounds will lead off the ESPN portion of the prelims, when unbeaten Kiwi Stirling (6-0, 1-0 UFC) runs into Croatian demolition man Erslan (14-4, 1 NC; 0-1 UFC). The two celebrate 14 knockouts across their 20 combined victories, and referee Erick Philippeaux is well aware that this could end with one crushing blow. Before they try to lop one another’s head off—figuratively, of course—they bump their large fists together. Stirling strikes first with a half-hearted low kick to find his distance, and Erslan comes out firing with two swiping punches that miss the mark. Stirling pitches out a few more kicks to the leg and body, and he aims one high but is out of range. Erslan catches him at the end of a right hand, and the Croatian backs off and surges forward with another pair of punches. Stirling comes up short on a spinning wheel kick, and he settles down and chips away with kicks from both legs. Erslan walks him down calmly, parrying a few punches to get one over the top. Stirling kicks his man in the ribs, and he has a trio of punches not land flush. Stirling does score another body kick, and he jabs and reaches with a lead hook. The body kick is the best weapon for the unbeaten fighter, who keeps Erslan at bay with his longer legs. Erslan whiffs on a big right hand, and Stirling hammers his front leg a few times as Erslan stands awkwardly on it. Erslan swings for the fences with a monster right hand, but it is his more measured hooks that connect. Sterling again cannot find a home for his spin kick, with Erslan in too close range to let it hit him. Erslan’s left hand opens a cut on the inside corner of Stirling’s eyebrow. Stirling goes to the body, and Erslan responds in kind. Stirling keeps chipping away with kicks, and Erslan’s right bicep start to welt up. Stirling jabs from afar a few times, and his leg kick scores more. Erslan pushes him away and backs to the wall, looking for his left hook but not finding it. They both swing hard, and Erslan connects with it better and backs his man off. Stirling kicks his man in the ribcage and has a low kick checked, and Erslan goes to the body and head with counters. Stirling kicks and bangs into the arm that is turning red in a hurry, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erslan
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Erslan
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Erslan

Round 2
Erslan rushes out of his corner to engage, and he stings his foe with a right hand but eats one back in response. Erslan suddenly shoots in for a double-leg takedown, and the fans in the building respond by booing loudly. Erslan manages to circle around to the back of his foe, but he cannot keep him there as Stirling turns him about. Stirling lifts Erslan’s leg up and drags him to the floor awkwardly, and it is Erslan who has to fight off the wrestling. Stirling hits a mat return, putting Erslan down lightly and smacking him with a free right hand. Erslan gets to a knee and hits a switch, and suddenly it is him again controlling the grappling. The Croatian fighter gets in a few knees to the side while holding on from the back, leaning heavily on Stirling against the cage. Stirling once more turns him around and this time breaks free, where Erslan quickly punches him square in the face. Stirling responds with body kicks, and he aims a few punches to the ribs for good measure. Erslan comes back over the top with a right hand, and then misses with two subsequent looping hooks. Erslan swings hard but is not able to find his target, and Stirling dances back and kicks him. Stirling shoots, and Erslan pushes him away and nails him with an overhand right. Erslan finds another on the same spot, and a third when Stirling tries to slide to the side. Erslan rips a few body shots and opens up a left hand to the chin, and he backs off when Stirling starts to kick at him. Stirling lunges but misses with a flurry, and he kicks the lead leg and backs off as the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Stirling

Round 3
The fighters meet in the center of the cage, and Stirling leads off with slapping kicks to the front leg and side. Erslan looks to sway and avoid jabs, but Stirling still reaches him a few times. Erslan looks for an overhand right counter when the kick comes, and Stirling is wise to it and slides back in the nick of time. Erslan wraps a right hand around the guard as Stirling is ducking, and Stirling gathers himself and kicks a few more times to the lead leg. Erslan plods forward behind his overhand right, and he clips Stirling with one and does not care when Stirling hits him back. Erslan lands a right hand, and Stirling steps in with a knee to the body in a clinch. Stirling surprises Erslan with an uppercut, and he eats a counter but did far more damage with his own blow. Stirling fights behind his jab, and Erslan connects with an overhand right. Stirling crashes the pocket looking for a single, and he bullies the Croatian fighter to the fence. Stirling transitions to a double, and Erslan tosses him aside and catches him with a flush right hand. Stirling shakes it off and comes back at him, only to get tagged with another right up top. Stirling rails his opponent with a one-two that shakes Erslan to his core, who shoots in for a single out of desperation. Stirling stops the takedown attempt and smashes him in the face with an elbow. Erslan is loving this, and he raises his arms in to the air to call on more. Stirling obliges him with several more punches, and he knocks Erslan down to his face. Philippeaux allows things to play out even though Erslan face-planted, and Stirling punches his man in the back of the head and then leaps on top looking for the finish. He pushes Erslan to his back and starts bombarding him with punches, stepping into mount and trying to punch his man out. Time expires before Stirling gets the job done.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Stirling (29-27 Stirling)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-8 Stirling (29-27 Stirling)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Stirling (29-28 Stirling)

The Official Result
Navajo Stirling def. Ivan Erslan via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 4, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Angelo picks Navajo Sterling but with caution, noting his grappling is not good (taken down three times in last fight) and he was a -1000 favorite who went to decision. He thinks this should be a striking-only matchup where Sterling is the better striker, but warns about betting on him. He criticizes the hype around Sterling and the 'Kiwi bias'.

"I'm still gonna pick him because this should be a striking only matchup and he's the better striker. But I would be very careful with your bets."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Big Brady is confident in Navajo Stirling, citing his City Kickboxing background and superior striking. He expects the fight to stay on the feet, as Erslan doesn't wrestle much and Stirling has good takedown defense. He thinks Erslan is hittable and has poor cardio, and predicts Stirling will land a knockout in the second round.

Stirling wins by knockout in round 2
"I'm going to take Navajo Sterling to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by second round knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

The host sees this as a perfect matchup for Stirling, who he believes will be the more effective striker against the reckless Erslan. He expects Stirling to stuff Erslan's grappling attempts and land big shots for a knockout victory.

Wins by KO
"I think this is a perfect match up for the youngster Sterling to counter and be the more effective striker here against Urslan who's just a little bit too reckless at times."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

The MMA Guru picks Stirling, praising his composure, frame, and finishing potential. He thinks Erslan is dangerous but will be too aggressive, leaving openings for Stirling's counters. He predicts a first-round TKO, noting Stirling's development and ability to handle deep waters.

first round TKO
"I'm actually going to go with Navajo Sterling by first round TKO."
WIN vs Tuco Tokkos
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley · Dec 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Navajo Stirling 0 78 of 155 50% 99 of 181 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
Tuco Tokkos 0 32 of 90 35% 34 of 93 3 of 9 33% 0 0 3:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Navajo Stirling 0 21 of 57 36% 24 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Tuco Tokkos 0 10 of 24 41% 10 of 24 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Navajo Stirling 0 22 of 35 62% 25 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tuco Tokkos 0 10 of 35 28% 12 of 37 3 of 5 60% 0 0 2:29
3 Navajo Stirling 0 35 of 63 55% 50 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Tuco Tokkos 0 12 of 31 38% 12 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Navajo Stirling 78 of 155 50% 33 of 94 37 of 50 8 of 11 70 of 142 8 of 13 0 of 0
Tuco Tokkos 32 of 90 35% 18 of 70 5 of 5 9 of 15 28 of 80 4 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Navajo Stirling 21 of 57 36% 8 of 35 9 of 15 4 of 7 20 of 54 1 of 3 0 of 0
Tuco Tokkos 10 of 24 41% 3 of 14 3 of 3 4 of 7 9 of 22 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Navajo Stirling 22 of 35 62% 8 of 19 12 of 14 2 of 2 17 of 28 5 of 7 0 of 0
Tuco Tokkos 10 of 35 28% 8 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 3 8 of 30 2 of 5 0 of 0
3 Navajo Stirling 35 of 63 55% 17 of 40 16 of 21 2 of 2 33 of 60 2 of 3 0 of 0
Tuco Tokkos 12 of 31 38% 7 of 25 1 of 1 4 of 5 11 of 28 1 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Navajo Stirling vs. George Tokkos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Stirling (-500), Tokkos (+380)

Round 1
The first main card fight will be overseen by Dan Miragliotta. Stirling takes the center. Tokkos eats a leg kick and struggles to get into striking distance. The two exchange leg kicks. Stirling works his jab and catches a body kick. Both men are staying patient. Stirling is more active with jabs and leg kicks. Tokkos eats a right hand and tries to charge forward but misses. Stirling hurts Tokkos with a front kick to the gut. A nice knee lands for Stirling. Tokkos is hurt and backing up into the fence. A thudding uppercut lands for Stirling, and Tokkos goes to the floor. Stirling lets his opponent up. Tokkos survives the round, but it looks like he has nothing for his opponent.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Stirling

Round 2
Tokkos is coming out aggressive to start the second round. Stirling working his jab well. Tokkos goes for a takedown attempt and grabs the back of his opponent while standing. Tokkos is able to ground Stirling but loses the position. Stirling lands a big knee that hurts Tokkos. Standing elbows land for Stirling, who is just leagues better on the feet than his opponent. Tokkos is eating body shots. Stirling gets pushed into the cage by Tokkos, who is looking for another takedown. Stirling is taken down but is able to get back up shortly afterward as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Stirling

Round 3
Tokkos eats a big left hook. Stirling is the fresher fighter. Tokkos goes for another takedown attempt and pushes Stirling into the cage. Tokkos is deep on a double-leg attempt but loses it. Stirling is now in control as they are clinched. Tokkos reverses but is eating elbows as he attempts to get a takedown. Fans are booing as this has been a dull round. They separate, and Stirling throws a head kick. Stirling is letting his kicks go. Stirling eats two slow leg kicks from Tokkos. A nice head kick from Stirling hurts Tokkos. Stirling hurts Tokkos with a kick to the body. Tokkos looks totally uninterested in fighting and then goes for a takedown as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Stirling (30-27 Stirling)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Stirling (30-27 Stirling)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Stirling (30-27 Stirling)

The Official Result
Navajo Stirling def. George Tokkos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27); R3, 5:00.
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Angelo picks Stirling because the striking gap is wider than the grappling gap, but he is very hesitant due to unknowns about Stirling's grappling. He notes Stirling is a former kickboxer with meaningful strikes and knees, while Tokkos is a grappler with no power. He strongly advises against betting on a 5-to-1 favorite with only five fights, calling it an unnecessary risk.

Do not bet on this fight.
"I'm going to pick Navajo here because the Striking Gap is going to be much wider than what I'm assuming the grappling Gap is but it's an assumption... don't bet on this damn fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Big Brady picks Navajo Stirling to win by second-round knockout. He is very confident, calling it a setup spot. He notes Stirling has a kickboxing background with great takedown defense, while Tokkos is hittable and chinny. He expects a vicious knockout.

"should be Sterling I do think he might you know take his time early on uh so I'm thinking of like a second round knockout for Navajo Sterling"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Cody picks Navajo Stirling, citing Tokkos's history of losing as a favorite and his lack of durability. He notes Stirling's striking skills from City Kickboxing and believes he will knock out Tokkos. Cody warns that the line is too high to include in parlays but sees Stirling as a clear winner.

"I got Sterling going out there knocking out Tuco toos."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Connor agrees with Zane, predicting Stirling will be a ranked light heavyweight soon and potentially a title contender. He notes that Tokkos is not a threat and that Stirling's only potential issue is early jitters, but he expects a dominant performance.

"Navajo Sterling will almost certainly, barring some Johnnie Walker-like insanity, which I do not expect out of city kickboxing."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Daniel Vreeland picks Navajo Stirling to win by knockout, noting his massive reach (82.7 inches) and kickboxing background. He believes Tokkos is not UFC caliber and will be overwhelmed. Vreeland acknowledges the -800 odds are steep but expects a finish.

by knockout
"I'll go Sterling by knockout"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Lucrative James picks Navajo Stirling via knockout, citing his knowledge of Stirling's camp and belief that Stirling is a much better fighter. He admits he hasn't studied Tokkos much but is confident in Stirling's ability to win decisively.

"Sterling via knockout I think he's way better than this dude."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Tokkos is not considered a UFC-worthy competitor, and Stirling is expected to make that clear by finding a knockout within the first round.

wins by KO in round 1
"I do not believe tokos is a UFC worthy competitor and I believe Sterling will make that clear once again as he goes up there and finds a knockout within the first round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Paul picks Navajo Stirling but prefers the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' under 2.5 rounds. He notes both fighters have finishing ability and expects an early finish. Paul is not keen on the money line due to the high price.

Fight doesn't go to decision (under 2.5 rounds)
"I've just been taken the fight doesn't go to decision under two and a half rounds that's how i' like if I'm going to use a piece from this fight I'll use that instead."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

The MMA Guru picks Navajo Stirling, noting that he has never rated Tuco Tokkos as a prospect. He points to Tokkos' losses to Umar Nurmagomedov and Mingyang Zhang, as well as unimpressive wins on the regional scene. He acknowledges Stirling is not a top contender but believes he is good enough to beat someone like Tokkos. He calls it a logical pick.

"Navajo Sterling should win this fight I've never really rated Taco toos as a prospect"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Zane is very confident in Stirling, calling him the best light heavyweight prospect and noting his size, athleticism, and functional City Kickboxing style. He dismisses Tokkos as a can who was melted by Ming-Yang Zhang and brought in to be a stepping stone. Zane expects an annihilation.

"This is going to be an annihilation. This is a nonsense fight made to bring the best light heavyweight prospect in the world into the UFC."
Tuco Tokkos - Fight History
LOSS vs Ivan Erslan
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · May 16, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tuco Tokkos 0 54 of 123 43% 57 of 126 0 of 6 0% 1 0 1:09
Ivan Erslan 0 37 of 66 56% 118 of 166 2 of 3 66% 0 0 8:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tuco Tokkos 0 40 of 84 47% 42 of 86 0 of 3 0% 1 0 1:09
Ivan Erslan 0 25 of 40 62% 42 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:05
2 Tuco Tokkos 0 10 of 25 40% 11 of 26 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Ivan Erslan 0 7 of 20 35% 37 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:25
3 Tuco Tokkos 0 4 of 14 28% 4 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Ivan Erslan 0 5 of 6 83% 39 of 53 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tuco Tokkos 54 of 123 43% 40 of 100 8 of 16 6 of 7 52 of 120 2 of 3 0 of 0
Ivan Erslan 37 of 66 56% 35 of 64 2 of 2 0 of 0 28 of 52 4 of 6 5 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tuco Tokkos 40 of 84 47% 30 of 72 5 of 7 5 of 5 39 of 83 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ivan Erslan 25 of 40 62% 24 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0 20 of 32 4 of 6 1 of 2
2 Tuco Tokkos 10 of 25 40% 8 of 21 1 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 23 1 of 2 0 of 0
Ivan Erslan 7 of 20 35% 6 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 15 0 of 0 3 of 5
3 Tuco Tokkos 4 of 14 28% 2 of 7 2 of 6 0 of 1 4 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ivan Erslan 5 of 6 83% 5 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Tuco Tokkos

Angelo picks Tuco Tokkos, noting he expected Tuco to be the favorite. He believes Tuco can take a beating and get the fight to the ground, where he has an advantage. He views Ivan Erslan as KO or bust and doubts Erslan gets the KO, leading to a loss. He bet on Tuco at +165.

"I think Tuco is gonna be able to get this fight to the ground. ... Ivon Urslon is KO or bust. I don't think he gets the KO. Therefore, he busts."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Ivan Erslan

Big Brady leans toward Ivan Erslan, believing his boxing and power will be too much for Tuco Tokkos. He expects Erslan to stuff takedowns and land a first-round knockout, as Tokkos has shown poor striking defense and durability.

first round KO
"I'm leaning Erszlon by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ivan Erslan

Cody is confident in Ivan Erslan, despite his 0-3 UFC record. He notes that Erslan has good get-up abilities, a decent gas tank, and durability, which are kryptonite to Tuco Tokkos's grinding style. Tokkos relies on takedowns but has poor top control and gasses. Cody expects Erslan to survive early takedowns, return to his feet, and eventually hurt Tokkos for a TKO in the later rounds.

Suggests over 1.5 or over 2.5 takedowns for Tokkos, but prefers Erslan by TKO.
"I feel like Urslon's Yeah, maybe maybe has a bad first round. Maybe gets taken down a few times, but inevitably he's going to return to his feet, club him with something, hurt Toast, or doesn't hurt him, but takes …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 15, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Tuco Tokkos

Connor picks Tokkos, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Erslan is undercooked and not durable, while Tokkos is a decent fighter who can wrestle. He emphasizes that Erslan's only finishes are early, and if he doesn't finish quickly, he loses.

Same odds as Zane. Connor calls Erslan 'raw chicken' and 'undercooked'.
"I got to take Tuktokos because even with Tuktokos getting smoked, it is, it's, it's never inside a minute. And Yvonne Ersan has won exactly one fight outside of the first two minutes."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Ivan Erslan

Lucrative James picks Ivan Erslan to win by knockout, believing Erslan is a level above Tokkos on the feet. He notes Erslan's better boxing and Tokkos's grappling is not high-level. He predicts Erslan will maintain his UFC roster spot with an inside-the-distance finish.

win by KO
"Ivan Urselin is my prediction here and I'm actually going to say that he gets it done inside the distance via knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ivan Erslan

The host picks Ivan Erslan over Tuco Tokkos, expecting Erslan's power and improved grappling defense to allow him to pick apart Tokkos and find a finish within two and a half rounds.

finish under 2.5 rounds
"I believe it's going to be Erslan's power and improved grappling defense that should help him pick apart Tokkos and eventually find the finish under two and a half rounds."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Ivan Erslan

The host respects Erslan's power and believes his defensive grappling is good enough to avoid Tokkos' submissions, leading to a knockout win. However, he is hesitant to bet Erslan at -200 due to his recent submission loss and the risk of Tokkos catching him. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds.

under 2.5 rounds
"I think Urslan has better defensive grappling than Junior Taffa, albeit not by a lot. But I think that difference in defensive grappling will be enough for Urslan to get out of those bad spots from Tokos."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight, as he discusses the odds and the difficulty of betting on Ivan Erslan at -160. He mentions that Erslan is 0-3 in the UFC and has been finished, but also notes that Tokkos has cardio issues. He does not express a strong opinion.

"I don't want to pay minus 180 on Ursland. Give me a break. He not good."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 15, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Tuco Tokkos

Zane picks Tokkos because Erslan is bad and has only won one fight outside the first two minutes; almost all his finishes are sub-one-minute. Tokkos is not athletic but can wrestle and grapple, and Erslan was immediately outgrappled by Jimmy Crute. Zane expects Tokkos to wrestle and grapple Erslan.

Odds: Tokkos opened +250, now +155; Erslan opened -300, now -180. Zane calls it a 'stupid fucking fight' and 'the height of meaninglessness'.
"So yeah, it's possible, but he also just went in there and got like immediately out grappled by Jimmy crude, which like Tuktokos is definitely going to wrestle and grapple him. Yeah. I got to take Tuktokos, but it's a …"
WIN vs Junior Tafa
Submission R2 4:25 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Jul 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Junior Tafa 0 24 of 38 63% 25 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:27
Tuco Tokkos 0 11 of 22 50% 31 of 57 5 of 9 55% 1 0 7:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Junior Tafa 0 16 of 23 69% 17 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:12
Tuco Tokkos 0 6 of 9 66% 14 of 19 4 of 6 66% 0 0 4:14
2 Junior Tafa 0 8 of 15 53% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Tuco Tokkos 0 5 of 13 38% 17 of 38 1 of 3 33% 1 0 3:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Junior Tafa 24 of 38 63% 21 of 35 3 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 14 10 of 10 8 of 14
Tuco Tokkos 11 of 22 50% 7 of 17 0 of 1 4 of 4 4 of 9 0 of 0 7 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Junior Tafa 16 of 23 69% 15 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 8 of 8 7 of 10
Tuco Tokkos 6 of 9 66% 3 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 5
2 Junior Tafa 8 of 15 53% 6 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 9 2 of 2 1 of 4
Tuco Tokkos 5 of 13 38% 4 of 11 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 8
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Junior Tafa vs. George Tokkos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tafa (-175); Tokkos (+140)

Round 1
Down about 35 pounds with some serious physical transformation on his behalf, Tafa (6-3, 2-3 UFC) is aiming for a new lease on life at light heavyweight. He will be able to trade with a willing dance partner in Tokkos (10-5, 0-2 UFC), where a knockout may not be guaranteed but it is greatly expected. Before the bludgeoning, referee Eric McMahon clocks the fighters in, and they bump fists.
Tokkos says hello with a chopping low kick, and Tafa checks a second one and attacks behind his jab. Tafa checks another kick, and he finds himself facing a single-leg entry from the Brit. Tafa elbows the side of the head a few times, and Tokkos still manages to wrangle him to the floor. Tokkos keeps hold of Tafa’s left leg to trap him on the mat, and he holds in there. Fans are not amused by the lack of activity of the two sluggers, and Tafa takes advantage of their momentum and stands up. The Kiwi hacks down the back of the head a few times, grabs the fence and is still dragged to his seat courtesy of the Tokkos single. Tafa wall-walks upright and is mat returned in a hurry. Tafa stands, and he wraps up a power guillotine choke only to release it to slash down with elbows.
Tokkos throws Tafa back down to the floor with emphasis, and Tafa repositions himself to sit on his seat. Tokkos smothers the former heavyweight with chest pressure, and McMahon tells them they need to do more than stall out. Tafa gets to a knee, and Tokkos takes his back and loops one hook around the legs. Tokkos dives after a short choke, and Tafa gives up his back and starts fighting hands. Tokkos resets himself to set up a rear-naked choke, and he releases it to shift to full mount, arm-triangle briefly in play. Tokkos postures up to drive down punches, getting warned for back of the head shots as well. He continues to impose his weight on Tafa, and is warned for grabbing inside the glove to keep Tafa on the mat. Tafa flips him over with seconds to go and lets Tokkos have it, cutting Tokkos on the top of the head as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tokkos
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Tokkos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tokkos

Round 2
Tafa touches gloves with his foe and unleashes a hellacious overhand right. Tokkos shrugs at him, but he is beaned by another big right. Tafa clubs him with an uppercut, and Tokkos falls on his face. Tokkos rolls around on the mat to try to get Tafa in a grappling exchange, and Tafa stands up and makes him get up. Tokkos explodes forward, nailing Tafa with a shock right hand that he uses to set up a takedown after it. Tafa gets dragged to the mat, and Tokkos clings to him and holds on with a front choke. Along the way, he is warned for grabbing Tafa’s gloves. Tokkos steps over to half guard and easily climbs to three-quarter mount, only to pull himself back one step so he keeps Tafa flat on his back. Tokkos sits up and drives down punches and hammerfists, and Tafa turns to his side to survive. Tokkos quits punching for the most part to get a hook in around the side.
Tafa shifts to his back again, and Tokkos considers an arm-triangle choke and is admonished for eye gouging when he puts his fingers on Tafa’s face. Tokkos sits up again to land some bombs, and he uses the punches to set up a rear-naked choke. Tafa on his side is able to break up the submission, but Tokkos is still on him making him carry every additional pound.
This time, Tokkos advances to full mount, and he latches on with an arm-triangle choke and steps over to the side. Crushing down with all of his energy, Tokkos forces Tafa to submit to the choke.
McMahon breaks up the sub, and Tokkos strides away and drops to his knees to take in his first UFC victory.

The Official Result
George Tokkos def. Junior Tafa R2 4:25 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jul 6, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Tuco Tokkos

Angelo picks Tuco Tokkos but admits he can't bet on him because Tokkos is winless in the UFC. He thinks Tokkos can get the fight to the ground and control Junior Tafa, who has poor takedown defense and looked out of shape in his last fight. However, he notes Tokkos is not reliable enough to bet on as a dog.

Cannot bet on Tokkos despite picking him due to unreliability.
"Tuk Tukos is the pick. Plus 145. Not reliable enough to jump on that as a dog."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 8, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Big Brady hates this fight from a betting standpoint. He warns that Junior Tafa's ground game is terrible and if Tuco Tokkos gets him down, it could be bad. However, he cannot rely on Tokkos to wrestle or do anything. He picks Tafa by default, expecting a first-round knockout, but says he would never lay -160 on Tafa.

first round knockout
"I'm going to take Junior Tafa. Junior Tafa to win by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tuco Tokkos

Connor picks Tokkos hesitantly, noting that Junior Tafa is a one-dimensional slugger who is very upright and easy to navigate. He acknowledges that Tokkos is hurtable and awkward, but believes his wrestling and toughness might be enough to outwork Tafa. Connor admits Tafa could knock Tokkos out, but he leans toward Tokkos due to Tafa's lack of versatility.

"I'm going to pick Tucko Tuckos. What the hell? ... Junior Taffa might knock his ass out, but I'm going to pick Tucko Tuckos."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tuco Tokkos

The host is not a fan of either fighter but believes Tokkos has the BJJ black belt to take Tafa to the ground and find a submission quickly. He criticizes Tafa's overall skill level, noting he has decent pop but is not a good fighter. Tokkos has underperformed in the UFC but has the grappling chops to win.

submission
"Not a big fan of either guy here, but Junior Tafa is just not that good of a fighter in my opinion. He has decent pop and decent striking, but Tuko Togo is a BJJ black belt who has somewhat …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

The MMA Guru picks Junior Tafa, noting he is in shape for his light heavyweight debut and has had some success in the UFC, unlike Tuco Tokkos who has lost three straight and shown no success. He expects Tafa to be 'lean and mean' and score a first-round TKO, as Tokkos has been finished in all his losses.

first round TKO
"I'm forced to choose Junior Tafa by TKO. ... I reckon he's going to score this one. TKO first round over Taco Toos."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tuco Tokkos

Zane also picks Tokkos, reasoning that Tafa's move down to light heavyweight won't fix his fundamental issues. He notes that Tokkos is a hard worker who tries to win, and that Tafa's one-note striking might not be enough to put him away. Zane is not confident, calling it a terrible fight.

"Yeah, I think I will too. Junior Taffa might knock his ass out, but I'm going to pick Tucko Tuckos."
CANCEL vs Junior Tafa
LOSS vs Navajo Stirling
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley · Dec 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Navajo Stirling 0 78 of 155 50% 99 of 181 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
Tuco Tokkos 0 32 of 90 35% 34 of 93 3 of 9 33% 0 0 3:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Navajo Stirling 0 21 of 57 36% 24 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Tuco Tokkos 0 10 of 24 41% 10 of 24 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Navajo Stirling 0 22 of 35 62% 25 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tuco Tokkos 0 10 of 35 28% 12 of 37 3 of 5 60% 0 0 2:29
3 Navajo Stirling 0 35 of 63 55% 50 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Tuco Tokkos 0 12 of 31 38% 12 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Navajo Stirling 78 of 155 50% 33 of 94 37 of 50 8 of 11 70 of 142 8 of 13 0 of 0
Tuco Tokkos 32 of 90 35% 18 of 70 5 of 5 9 of 15 28 of 80 4 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Navajo Stirling 21 of 57 36% 8 of 35 9 of 15 4 of 7 20 of 54 1 of 3 0 of 0
Tuco Tokkos 10 of 24 41% 3 of 14 3 of 3 4 of 7 9 of 22 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Navajo Stirling 22 of 35 62% 8 of 19 12 of 14 2 of 2 17 of 28 5 of 7 0 of 0
Tuco Tokkos 10 of 35 28% 8 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 3 8 of 30 2 of 5 0 of 0
3 Navajo Stirling 35 of 63 55% 17 of 40 16 of 21 2 of 2 33 of 60 2 of 3 0 of 0
Tuco Tokkos 12 of 31 38% 7 of 25 1 of 1 4 of 5 11 of 28 1 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Navajo Stirling vs. George Tokkos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Stirling (-500), Tokkos (+380)

Round 1
The first main card fight will be overseen by Dan Miragliotta. Stirling takes the center. Tokkos eats a leg kick and struggles to get into striking distance. The two exchange leg kicks. Stirling works his jab and catches a body kick. Both men are staying patient. Stirling is more active with jabs and leg kicks. Tokkos eats a right hand and tries to charge forward but misses. Stirling hurts Tokkos with a front kick to the gut. A nice knee lands for Stirling. Tokkos is hurt and backing up into the fence. A thudding uppercut lands for Stirling, and Tokkos goes to the floor. Stirling lets his opponent up. Tokkos survives the round, but it looks like he has nothing for his opponent.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Stirling

Round 2
Tokkos is coming out aggressive to start the second round. Stirling working his jab well. Tokkos goes for a takedown attempt and grabs the back of his opponent while standing. Tokkos is able to ground Stirling but loses the position. Stirling lands a big knee that hurts Tokkos. Standing elbows land for Stirling, who is just leagues better on the feet than his opponent. Tokkos is eating body shots. Stirling gets pushed into the cage by Tokkos, who is looking for another takedown. Stirling is taken down but is able to get back up shortly afterward as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Stirling

Round 3
Tokkos eats a big left hook. Stirling is the fresher fighter. Tokkos goes for another takedown attempt and pushes Stirling into the cage. Tokkos is deep on a double-leg attempt but loses it. Stirling is now in control as they are clinched. Tokkos reverses but is eating elbows as he attempts to get a takedown. Fans are booing as this has been a dull round. They separate, and Stirling throws a head kick. Stirling is letting his kicks go. Stirling eats two slow leg kicks from Tokkos. A nice head kick from Stirling hurts Tokkos. Stirling hurts Tokkos with a kick to the body. Tokkos looks totally uninterested in fighting and then goes for a takedown as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Stirling (30-27 Stirling)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Stirling (30-27 Stirling)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Stirling (30-27 Stirling)

The Official Result
Navajo Stirling def. George Tokkos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27); R3, 5:00.
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Angelo picks Stirling because the striking gap is wider than the grappling gap, but he is very hesitant due to unknowns about Stirling's grappling. He notes Stirling is a former kickboxer with meaningful strikes and knees, while Tokkos is a grappler with no power. He strongly advises against betting on a 5-to-1 favorite with only five fights, calling it an unnecessary risk.

Do not bet on this fight.
"I'm going to pick Navajo here because the Striking Gap is going to be much wider than what I'm assuming the grappling Gap is but it's an assumption... don't bet on this damn fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Big Brady picks Navajo Stirling to win by second-round knockout. He is very confident, calling it a setup spot. He notes Stirling has a kickboxing background with great takedown defense, while Tokkos is hittable and chinny. He expects a vicious knockout.

"should be Sterling I do think he might you know take his time early on uh so I'm thinking of like a second round knockout for Navajo Sterling"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Cody picks Navajo Stirling, citing Tokkos's history of losing as a favorite and his lack of durability. He notes Stirling's striking skills from City Kickboxing and believes he will knock out Tokkos. Cody warns that the line is too high to include in parlays but sees Stirling as a clear winner.

"I got Sterling going out there knocking out Tuco toos."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Connor agrees with Zane, predicting Stirling will be a ranked light heavyweight soon and potentially a title contender. He notes that Tokkos is not a threat and that Stirling's only potential issue is early jitters, but he expects a dominant performance.

"Navajo Sterling will almost certainly, barring some Johnnie Walker-like insanity, which I do not expect out of city kickboxing."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Daniel Vreeland picks Navajo Stirling to win by knockout, noting his massive reach (82.7 inches) and kickboxing background. He believes Tokkos is not UFC caliber and will be overwhelmed. Vreeland acknowledges the -800 odds are steep but expects a finish.

by knockout
"I'll go Sterling by knockout"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Lucrative James picks Navajo Stirling via knockout, citing his knowledge of Stirling's camp and belief that Stirling is a much better fighter. He admits he hasn't studied Tokkos much but is confident in Stirling's ability to win decisively.

"Sterling via knockout I think he's way better than this dude."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Tokkos is not considered a UFC-worthy competitor, and Stirling is expected to make that clear by finding a knockout within the first round.

wins by KO in round 1
"I do not believe tokos is a UFC worthy competitor and I believe Sterling will make that clear once again as he goes up there and finds a knockout within the first round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Paul picks Navajo Stirling but prefers the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' under 2.5 rounds. He notes both fighters have finishing ability and expects an early finish. Paul is not keen on the money line due to the high price.

Fight doesn't go to decision (under 2.5 rounds)
"I've just been taken the fight doesn't go to decision under two and a half rounds that's how i' like if I'm going to use a piece from this fight I'll use that instead."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

The MMA Guru picks Navajo Stirling, noting that he has never rated Tuco Tokkos as a prospect. He points to Tokkos' losses to Umar Nurmagomedov and Mingyang Zhang, as well as unimpressive wins on the regional scene. He acknowledges Stirling is not a top contender but believes he is good enough to beat someone like Tokkos. He calls it a logical pick.

"Navajo Sterling should win this fight I've never really rated Taco toos as a prospect"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Zane is very confident in Stirling, calling him the best light heavyweight prospect and noting his size, athleticism, and functional City Kickboxing style. He dismisses Tokkos as a can who was melted by Ming-Yang Zhang and brought in to be a stepping stone. Zane expects an annihilation.

"This is going to be an annihilation. This is a nonsense fight made to bring the best light heavyweight prospect in the world into the UFC."
LOSS vs Oumar Sy
Submission (face crank) R1 3:43 · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · May 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Oumar Sy 0 0 of 2 0% 1 of 8 2 of 3 66% 1 0 3:30
Tuco Tokkos 0 3 of 4 75% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Oumar Sy 0 0 of 2 0% 1 of 8 2 of 3 66% 1 0 3:30
Tuco Tokkos 0 3 of 4 75% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Oumar Sy 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tuco Tokkos 3 of 4 75% 1 of 1 0 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Oumar Sy 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tuco Tokkos 3 of 4 75% 1 of 1 0 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Oumar Sy vs. George Tokkos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: N/A

Round 1
A pair of UFC newcomers will collide in hopes of storming the light heavyweight division. Undefeated Frenchman Sy (9-0, 0-0 UFC) has earned the lion’s share of his pro wins via stoppage, and the same can be said about “Tuco” Tokkos (10-3, 0-0 UFC). Referee Dan Miragliotta will need to keep his head on a swivel for as long as it lasts. Before they come out guns blazing, they touch ‘em up. Tokkos prods out an early jab and two low kicks, and he tests his might with a high kick. Sy punches once and shoots in for a deep double, lifting Tokkos off his feet and depositing him to the mat effortlessly. Tokkos gets stuck in an awkward position on the corner of the fence and the floor, and he tries to use upkicks to push Sy away. Tokkos rolls over to his knees, and Sy clings to him from behind and steps over to get around and sneak his hooks in. With only one hook in, Sy elects to snatch up a rear-naked choke that is more of a face and neck crank, and Tokkos explodes out of the bad position and loudly says, “you’re heavier than me.” Sy does not acknowledge him, instead keeping tightly pressed to his back as Tokkos sits up. Tokkos says it again, and Sy is not listening, instead dragging Tokkos right down to the mat once more. Sy snakes his right arm around the head, but he lets it go and pulls Tokkos down from behind so he can lock up a body triangle. Tokkos once more remarks about the weight of his opponent, and Sy takes advantage of this “Hello, Japan” type moment and squeezes one arm around the chin and locks down the rear-naked choke grip. The face crank RNC is tight as a drum, and Sy’s clutch is not about to loosen. Sy leans back to make this submission academic, and Tokkos thinks about tapping out but waits a few seconds longer. Tokkos surrenders from the submission, and Sy remains unbeaten as a professional as he picks up his 10th pro victory.

The Official Result
Oumar Sy def. George Tokkos R1 3:43 via Submission (Face Crank)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Oumar Sy

Angelo is high on Oumar Sy, describing him as a 6'5" beast with knockout power and explosive action. He believes Sy will dominate Antonio Trocoli, who is returning from a three-year USADA suspension. Sy has shown he can go to decisions without gassing out. Angelo expects a finish but warns against including Sy in parlays due to his UFC debut.

"Sai should dominate this fight do dominate this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Oumar Sy

Cody provides a detailed scouting report: Sy is a natural grappler with heavy hands, similar to Kevin Randleman in terms of raw power. He notes Tokkos has been knocked out by lower-level competition and has poor durability. Cody believes Sy will take Tokkos down and finish him, or knock him out on the feet. He also mentions Tokkos is taking the fight on short notice for a payday.

"I think he goes out there and smashes up a Toco set."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Oumar Sy

Tokkos is a short-notice replacement who has been knocked out before and lacks substance in his wins. Sy is a UFC debutant with solid wrestling and a good gas tank. He can rely on his grappling defensively and put power punches on Tokkos to break him. Expects Sy to grind out a decision or find a finish from top position.

If line is around -150 to -185, Sy is worth a shot.
"I think he actually he could either grind this out or eventually find that finish from that top position but for the sake of this podcast I'm going to take C and C by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Oumar Sy

Paul notes Sy is a very green prospect but should get through this fight against a short-notice opponent. He highlights Sy's grappling-heavy game and physical strength. Paul expects Sy to take Tokkos down and ground-and-pound him out, though he warns the line may move and Sy's lack of recent activity is a concern.

"I'll be picking Umar C."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Oumar Sy

The MMA Guru picks Oumar Sy over Tuco Tokkos, citing Sy's experience in KSW against tough opponents and his reach advantage. He criticizes Tokkos' career, including a failed drug test for nandrolone and a loss to a chinless welterweight. He believes Sy's striking and grappling are superior and that Tokkos has many red flags.

"I'm going to go with Umar Sai he's the favorite here this is a very close fight though"
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Angelo picks Stirling because the striking gap is wider than the grappling gap, but he is very hesitant due to unknowns about Stirling's grappling. He notes Stirling is a former kickboxer with meaningful strikes and knees, while Tokkos is a grappler with no power. He strongly advises against betting on a 5-to-1 favorite with only five fights, calling it an unnecessary risk.

Do not bet on this fight.
"I'm going to pick Navajo here because the Striking Gap is going to be much wider than what I'm assuming the grappling Gap is but it's an assumption... don't bet on this damn fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Big Brady picks Navajo Stirling to win by second-round knockout. He is very confident, calling it a setup spot. He notes Stirling has a kickboxing background with great takedown defense, while Tokkos is hittable and chinny. He expects a vicious knockout.

"should be Sterling I do think he might you know take his time early on uh so I'm thinking of like a second round knockout for Navajo Sterling"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Cody picks Navajo Stirling, citing Tokkos's history of losing as a favorite and his lack of durability. He notes Stirling's striking skills from City Kickboxing and believes he will knock out Tokkos. Cody warns that the line is too high to include in parlays but sees Stirling as a clear winner.

"I got Sterling going out there knocking out Tuco toos."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Connor agrees with Zane, predicting Stirling will be a ranked light heavyweight soon and potentially a title contender. He notes that Tokkos is not a threat and that Stirling's only potential issue is early jitters, but he expects a dominant performance.

"Navajo Sterling will almost certainly, barring some Johnnie Walker-like insanity, which I do not expect out of city kickboxing."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Daniel Vreeland picks Navajo Stirling to win by knockout, noting his massive reach (82.7 inches) and kickboxing background. He believes Tokkos is not UFC caliber and will be overwhelmed. Vreeland acknowledges the -800 odds are steep but expects a finish.

by knockout
"I'll go Sterling by knockout"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Lucrative James picks Navajo Stirling via knockout, citing his knowledge of Stirling's camp and belief that Stirling is a much better fighter. He admits he hasn't studied Tokkos much but is confident in Stirling's ability to win decisively.

"Sterling via knockout I think he's way better than this dude."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Tokkos is not considered a UFC-worthy competitor, and Stirling is expected to make that clear by finding a knockout within the first round.

wins by KO in round 1
"I do not believe tokos is a UFC worthy competitor and I believe Sterling will make that clear once again as he goes up there and finds a knockout within the first round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Paul picks Navajo Stirling but prefers the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' under 2.5 rounds. He notes both fighters have finishing ability and expects an early finish. Paul is not keen on the money line due to the high price.

Fight doesn't go to decision (under 2.5 rounds)
"I've just been taken the fight doesn't go to decision under two and a half rounds that's how i' like if I'm going to use a piece from this fight I'll use that instead."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

The MMA Guru picks Navajo Stirling, noting that he has never rated Tuco Tokkos as a prospect. He points to Tokkos' losses to Umar Nurmagomedov and Mingyang Zhang, as well as unimpressive wins on the regional scene. He acknowledges Stirling is not a top contender but believes he is good enough to beat someone like Tokkos. He calls it a logical pick.

"Navajo Sterling should win this fight I've never really rated Taco toos as a prospect"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Zane is very confident in Stirling, calling him the best light heavyweight prospect and noting his size, athleticism, and functional City Kickboxing style. He dismisses Tokkos as a can who was melted by Ming-Yang Zhang and brought in to be a stepping stone. Zane expects an annihilation.

"This is going to be an annihilation. This is a nonsense fight made to bring the best light heavyweight prospect in the world into the UFC."
Comments (1)
BR
brian 8 months, 2 weeks ago

Patient beating in rd1. Body shot. Tuccos gets a takedown in rd2. Good hips but finds himself on his knees possible darce from Skillful opponents. Tuco is tough, rd 3 tired and navajo turns it up. Tuco is better than people are giving hin credit for at 205, tough jiu jitsu good shape