UFC 200: Tate vs. Nunes · Jul 09, 2016 · Bantamweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 200: Tate vs. Nunes Next Fight
Age 40
Height 5' 6"
Reach 67"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 43
Height 5' 5"
Reach 66"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - T.J. Dillashaw
5.09 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
3.47 SApM
62.0% Str. Def.
1.56 TD Avg
30.0% TD Acc.
77.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Raphael Assunção
3.22 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
2.5 SApM
66.0% Str. Def.
1.65 TD Avg
39.0% TD Acc.
78.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
T.J. Dillashaw - Fight History
TKO (punches) R2 3:44 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aljamain Sterling 0 72 of 93 77% 148 of 181 5 of 8 62% 2 0 7:06
T.J. Dillashaw 0 8 of 26 30% 13 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aljamain Sterling 0 30 of 45 66% 80 of 103 3 of 4 75% 1 0 4:20
T.J. Dillashaw 0 3 of 11 27% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Aljamain Sterling 0 42 of 48 87% 68 of 78 2 of 4 50% 1 0 2:46
T.J. Dillashaw 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aljamain Sterling 72 of 93 77% 56 of 75 13 of 15 3 of 3 17 of 30 2 of 4 53 of 59
T.J. Dillashaw 8 of 26 30% 3 of 20 2 of 2 3 of 4 8 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aljamain Sterling 30 of 45 66% 24 of 38 5 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 15 1 of 3 21 of 27
T.J. Dillashaw 3 of 11 27% 0 of 8 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Aljamain Sterling 42 of 48 87% 32 of 37 8 of 9 2 of 2 9 of 15 1 of 1 32 of 32
T.J. Dillashaw 5 of 15 33% 3 of 12 1 of 1 1 of 2 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Bantamweight Title Fight: Aljamain Sterling vs. T.J. Dillashaw
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sterling (-175), Dillashaw (+150)

Round 1
The co-main event kicks off under the watchful eye of referee Marc Goddard. They exchange kicks as Sterling changes stances. Tons of movement early on, and Sterling catches a kick which he uses to spin Dillashaw to the canvas. Sterling takes Dillashaw’s back for a moment, but they spin through and Sterling lands in half guard. Dillashaw appears to be in pain from something. Sterling moves to mount, then locks up a body triangle from the top. Dillashaw’s left arm or shoulder may be the problem. Sterling lands a couple of huge right hands from the top, then takes Dillashaw’s back. Sterling working for a choke, then gives it up to move back to mount. Dillashaw pops back up and scrambles, but Sterling is all over him, regaining back control. Under two minutes left and Sterling has Dillashaw in a body triangle from back mount. Sterling pelts the ex-champ with punches that curl around the front of Dillashaw’s face. Dillashaw escapes to his feet and his left arm is clearly compromised. Sterling drops for a takedown with 30 seconds left, driving Dillashaw to the fence. He peels Dillashaw away from the fence and dumps him on the canvas. Dillashaw pops back up right before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Sterling
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-8 Sterling
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-8 Sterling

Round 2
Dillashaw’s shoulder is popped back in between rounds, and they’re good to go for another round at least. Sterling throws low kicks to open the round as Dillashaw returns fire, mostly with his right hand. Sterling drops levels for an easy double-leg takedown in the middle of the Octagon. Sterling sets up in Dillashaw’s half-guard. Sterling tries to move to side control, dropping elbows as he does. Dillashaw drives back to his feet, but is ensnared in a D’Arce choke as he does. Dillashaw escapes the hold, and his arm is once again all the way out of the socket, hanging limply at his side. The champ seems unsure of what to do, but takes Dillashaw down again. Sterling moves to mount. Dillashaw turns his back and goes belly-down. Sterling smashes Dillashaw with a couple of brutal elbows, then several punches, and Dillashaw is doing next to nothing to defend himself. Ref Goddard steps in and mercifully calls a stop to the mauling.

The Official Result
Aljamain Sterling def. T.J. Dillashaw R2 3:44 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2022 (6 days before fight)
T.J. Dillashaw

Angelo picks T.J. Dillashaw, surprised he is an underdog. He questions how Sterling can take Dillashaw down, noting only two people have ever done it. He praises Dillashaw's pace, pressure, and toughness, referencing the Sandhagen fight. He has a moneyline bet on Dillashaw at +150.

Moneyline bet at +150
"I'm going TJ Dillashaw I got that moneyline bet at plus 150"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
T.J. Dillashaw

Big Brady picks Dillashaw to win by decision, despite concerns about his age (36) and decline. He believes stylistically it's a great matchup for Dillashaw: his takedown defense (86%) and get-up game are elite, and Sterling has only 30% takedown accuracy. He expects Dillashaw's pressure and cardio to overwhelm Sterling in the later rounds, winning the third, fourth, and fifth.

"I'm going to take dylasha to win by decision I think early on super competitive I think Sterling can even take a round or two but I think as the fight goes on I think the pressure is going to …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
T.J. Dillashaw

Cody thinks Sterling is the superior fighter overall but believes Dillashaw is live as an underdog. He notes Sterling's cardio fades in later rounds, while Dillashaw historically excels in rounds 4 and 5. Cody points out that Dillashaw has excellent takedown defense and wrestling, and that Sterling's takedowns may not hold him down. He sees Dillashaw winning the striking exchanges and possibly capitalizing on Sterling's fatigue.

"I just kind of feel like for an underdog plus money is not taking anything away for algebra and Sterling it's just like I think he's live in this spot to get upset so uh sign me up for some …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
T.J. Dillashaw

Connor picks Dillashaw because he believes Dillashaw's wrestling and grappling defense will neutralize Sterling's best weapons. He notes that Dillashaw has never been held down or submitted, and that Sterling tends to gas when he can't impose his grappling. He also points out that Dillashaw's pressure and ability to take easy targets will wear on Sterling, similar to how Munoz gave him trouble.

"I'm gonna pick TJ Dillashaw. It feels too right for the fights he wins and the fight Sterling loses."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Aljamain Sterling

Daniel Levi leans toward Aljamain Sterling to defend his belt, but is not confident. He respects Sterling's back control and jiu-jitsu, noting that even Petr Yan couldn't escape his backpack. However, he questions Sterling's durability and cardio, thinking he can wilt in later rounds. Levi also notes that T.J. Dillashaw is 37, coming off an ACL tear and a long layoff, and is no longer in his prime. He thinks Sterling's youth and confidence in his strengths give him the edge, but he has no bet on this fight because he doesn't have a strong read.

"I'm a lean algeman to to make it happen to steal some of these rounds but not confident I don't have a bet on this fight for a reason."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
T.J. Dillashaw

Dillashaw has solid wrestling and takedown defense to keep the fight standing. He is the better striker and can counter Sterling's entries. Sterling's best path is grappling, but Dillashaw's movement and pivots make him hard to catch. Dillashaw by decision at +300 or moneyline at +150 are both appealing.

Dillashaw by decision at +300; Dillashaw by KO at +500
"I love the underdog price here on the snake TJ Dillashaw I think that he has the perfect stylistic approach here to deal with al-jamin Sterling"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
T.J. Dillashaw

Paul struggles to get to Sterling at -175, acknowledging Sterling's talent but questioning whether his grappling will work on Dillashaw. He notes Dillashaw's takedown defense historically, and that Sterling may not be able to hold him down. Paul mentions Dillashaw's strong later rounds and volume striking. He is picking Dillashaw for the show but is unsure about betting, possibly looking at round props.

round 4 or round 5 props (maybe)
"for the purpose of the show I'm picking delish uh don't know if I'm gonna get there from a betting perspective"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Aljamain Sterling

The MMA Guru picks Aljamain Sterling over T.J. Dillashaw by submission. He argues Sterling is underrated, citing his wins over Yan, Sandhagen, and Munoz. He believes Dillashaw gives up his back and that Sterling will hurt him on the feet before securing a rear-naked choke in the second round.

rear naked choke late second round
"I'm gonna go with Al Jermaine Sterling over TJ Dillashaw"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
T.J. Dillashaw

Zane also picks Dillashaw, citing that Dillashaw is a uniquely bad matchup for Sterling due to his ability to stuff takedowns and avoid submission. He notes that Sterling's path to victory is narrow and relies on early chaos, but Dillashaw's experience and durability make him the safer bet. He also mentions that Dillashaw's wrestling-heavy approach against Sandhagen shows he can adapt.

"I gotta pick Dillashaw. It's weird because I would pick Yan over Dillashaw, but I think Dillashaw is a uniquely bad matchup for Sterling."
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · Jul 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
T.J. Dillashaw 0 128 of 281 45% 171 of 331 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 110 of 268 41% 169 of 332 2 of 19 10% 0 0 8:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 T.J. Dillashaw 0 15 of 25 60% 28 of 42 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 13 of 26 50% 36 of 54 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:24
2 T.J. Dillashaw 0 26 of 55 47% 37 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 12 of 41 29% 20 of 49 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:18
3 T.J. Dillashaw 0 23 of 53 43% 36 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 26 of 52 50% 34 of 60 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:00
4 T.J. Dillashaw 0 26 of 65 40% 28 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 19 of 61 31% 35 of 77 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:41
5 T.J. Dillashaw 0 38 of 83 45% 42 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 40 of 88 45% 44 of 92 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
T.J. Dillashaw 128 of 281 45% 110 of 258 10 of 14 8 of 9 126 of 278 2 of 2 0 of 1
Cory Sandhagen 110 of 268 41% 59 of 208 10 of 14 41 of 46 98 of 245 8 of 14 4 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 T.J. Dillashaw 15 of 25 60% 9 of 16 1 of 3 5 of 6 15 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 1
Cory Sandhagen 13 of 26 50% 9 of 20 1 of 2 3 of 4 8 of 17 1 of 1 4 of 8
2 T.J. Dillashaw 26 of 55 47% 22 of 51 2 of 2 2 of 2 26 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 12 of 41 29% 6 of 34 2 of 3 4 of 4 10 of 38 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 T.J. Dillashaw 23 of 53 43% 20 of 50 2 of 2 1 of 1 22 of 52 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 26 of 52 50% 12 of 36 2 of 3 12 of 13 23 of 45 3 of 6 0 of 1
4 T.J. Dillashaw 26 of 65 40% 25 of 63 1 of 2 0 of 0 26 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 19 of 61 31% 7 of 46 0 of 0 12 of 15 19 of 60 0 of 1 0 of 0
5 T.J. Dillashaw 38 of 83 45% 34 of 78 4 of 5 0 of 0 37 of 82 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 40 of 88 45% 25 of 72 5 of 6 10 of 10 38 of 85 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
T.J. Dillashaw

Angelo picks T.J. Dillashaw because he believes Dillashaw has better footwork, wrestling, and power. He notes that Dillashaw was a masterclass before the suspension and that the layoff may have allowed him to train the entire time. He has Dillashaw in his DraftKings lineup and has placed a moneyline bet. He likes the more/more on monkey knife fight, expecting an active fight that goes the distance.

moneyline bet on T.J. Dillashaw; more/more on monkey knife fight
"i like tj dilshaw to win this fight tj dillashaw is in my lineup i did a money line bet on tj dillashaw"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Big Brady picks Cory Sandhagen due to Sandhagen's momentum, youth, and activity, while T.J. Dillashaw is coming off a 2.5-year layoff and PED suspension at age 35. He notes Sandhagen's significant size advantage (5 inches height, 2 inches reach) and high striking volume (6.85 sig strikes/min). He acknowledges Dillashaw's path via wrestling but questions his form post-suspension. He expects a competitive fight but leans Sandhagen by decision.

"I'll take san hagen to win by decision very intriguing fight... can't pick dillashaw here i can't do it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Cody picks Sandhagen, citing durability and cardio advantages. He notes Sandhagen has never been knocked out and has a great gas tank, while Dillashaw has durability concerns and a long layoff. He expects Sandhagen's volume to wear down Dillashaw over five rounds. He acknowledges the price is a bit high but still picks Sandhagen.

"i would think san hagen i would think this thing's scheduled for five it's probably going to three four or five if not the distance but i would think at some point the volume from san hagan starts to wear …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Daniel Levi picks Cory Sandhagen to win, citing Sandhagen's length, size, and unpredictability as key advantages. He notes that Sandhagen is the 2021 version of Dillashaw's style but taller and longer, and that Dillashaw's chin may be suspect after the Cejudo knockout. Levi acknowledges Dillashaw's wrestling but doubts he will use it effectively, as he hasn't landed a takedown in years. He predicts Sandhagen will knock out Dillashaw, emphasizing that Sandhagen capitalizes on finishes unlike other fighters.

predicts Sandhagen by knockout
"i think corey sang comes out here knocks out tj dillashaw"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Jacob picks Cory Sandhagen because he thinks Sandhagen is the true talent and will find a way to finish T.J. Dillashaw. He notes that Dillashaw was almost finished by Cody Garbrandt and that Sandhagen is big, sharp, and uses his length well. He has Sandhagen in his DraftKings lineup but acknowledges that Dillashaw at $7,400 is incredible value. He expects a more/more fight.

"corsine hagen i think is the true tj honestly was in my lineup to start at 7 400 with his talent"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
T.J. Dillashaw

The host leans toward T.J. Dillashaw as a dog, citing his wrestling advantage and experience. He believes Dillashaw can use takedowns to neutralize Sandhagen's striking. He notes Sandhagen's durability and finishing ability but thinks Dillashaw's grappling will be key. He likes Dillashaw by decision at +420.

Dillashaw by decision +420; Under 3.5 rounds -125 (mentioned as a possibility)
"i am leaning with the dog here with uh tj dillashaw i see his land ballooning up a little bit now he's at plus 165"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Paul also picks Sandhagen, agreeing with Cody. He mentions the price is close to correct but has a concern about Sandhagen's takedown defense after the Sterling loss. He notes Dillashaw's layoff and weight cut issues. He does not have cash on it but will investigate at weigh-ins.

over 3.5 rounds +140
"i'm picking sand hag in here i don't have any cash on it though we'll we'll investigate further at the weigh-ins"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

The Guru picks Sandhagen due to his recent intensity and activity, contrasting with Dillashaw's 2.5-year layoff and age. He believes Sandhagen's length and kicking game, especially the question mark kick, will be key. He notes Dillashaw's chinny history and defensive habits that could be exploited. He predicts a first-round TKO via question mark kick, with Sandhagen setting it up with front kicks and inside leg kicks.

first round TKO via question mark kick
"i'm going to go with corey sandhagen first round tko question mark kicked it ahead"
LOSS vs Henry Cejudo
TKO (punches) R1 0:32 · UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · Jan 19, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Henry Cejudo 1 18 of 23 78% 18 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
T.J. Dillashaw 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Henry Cejudo 1 18 of 23 78% 18 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
T.J. Dillashaw 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Henry Cejudo 18 of 23 78% 17 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 17
T.J. Dillashaw 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Henry Cejudo 18 of 23 78% 17 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 17
T.J. Dillashaw 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
KO (knee and punches) R1 4:10 · UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2 · Aug 04, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
T.J. Dillashaw 2 45 of 72 62% 51 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Cody Garbrandt 0 17 of 43 39% 17 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 T.J. Dillashaw 2 45 of 72 62% 51 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Cody Garbrandt 0 17 of 43 39% 17 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
T.J. Dillashaw 45 of 72 62% 37 of 60 5 of 6 3 of 6 16 of 38 15 of 16 14 of 18
Cody Garbrandt 17 of 43 39% 14 of 37 2 of 5 1 of 1 14 of 39 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 T.J. Dillashaw 45 of 72 62% 37 of 60 5 of 6 3 of 6 16 of 38 15 of 16 14 of 18
Cody Garbrandt 17 of 43 39% 14 of 37 2 of 5 1 of 1 14 of 39 3 of 4 0 of 0
TKO (punches) R2 2:41 · UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre · Nov 04, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
T.J. Dillashaw 1 18 of 53 33% 19 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Cody Garbrandt 2 20 of 81 24% 23 of 85 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 T.J. Dillashaw 1 15 of 42 35% 16 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Cody Garbrandt 0 9 of 49 18% 9 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 T.J. Dillashaw 0 3 of 11 27% 3 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cody Garbrandt 2 11 of 32 34% 14 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
T.J. Dillashaw 18 of 53 33% 16 of 47 2 of 5 0 of 1 17 of 50 0 of 0 1 of 3
Cody Garbrandt 20 of 81 24% 12 of 49 1 of 12 7 of 20 14 of 74 0 of 0 6 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 T.J. Dillashaw 15 of 42 35% 13 of 37 2 of 4 0 of 1 14 of 39 0 of 0 1 of 3
Cody Garbrandt 9 of 49 18% 3 of 27 1 of 9 5 of 13 9 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 T.J. Dillashaw 3 of 11 27% 3 of 10 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cody Garbrandt 11 of 32 34% 9 of 22 0 of 3 2 of 7 5 of 25 0 of 0 6 of 7
WIN vs John Lineker
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · Dec 30, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
T.J. Dillashaw 0 71 of 119 59% 177 of 249 5 of 6 83% 1 0 6:53
John Lineker 0 38 of 90 42% 51 of 107 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 T.J. Dillashaw 0 13 of 30 43% 37 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:34
John Lineker 0 12 of 40 30% 12 of 40 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:05
2 T.J. Dillashaw 0 37 of 51 72% 98 of 131 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:46
John Lineker 0 9 of 17 52% 19 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 T.J. Dillashaw 0 21 of 38 55% 42 of 62 2 of 3 66% 1 0 1:33
John Lineker 0 17 of 33 51% 20 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
T.J. Dillashaw 71 of 119 59% 53 of 98 10 of 12 8 of 9 25 of 59 0 of 0 46 of 60
John Lineker 38 of 90 42% 18 of 53 19 of 36 1 of 1 33 of 81 0 of 3 5 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 T.J. Dillashaw 13 of 30 43% 6 of 21 4 of 5 3 of 4 11 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 6
John Lineker 12 of 40 30% 6 of 28 6 of 12 0 of 0 11 of 35 0 of 3 1 of 2
2 T.J. Dillashaw 37 of 51 72% 33 of 47 4 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 33 of 42
John Lineker 9 of 17 52% 6 of 12 2 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 13 0 of 0 4 of 4
3 T.J. Dillashaw 21 of 38 55% 14 of 30 2 of 3 5 of 5 10 of 26 0 of 0 11 of 12
John Lineker 17 of 33 51% 6 of 13 11 of 20 0 of 0 17 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 200: Tate vs. Nunes · Jul 09, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
T.J. Dillashaw 0 64 of 195 32% 72 of 205 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:48
Raphael Assunção 0 49 of 140 35% 52 of 143 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 T.J. Dillashaw 0 18 of 72 25% 23 of 78 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Raphael Assunção 0 14 of 45 31% 14 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 T.J. Dillashaw 0 22 of 62 35% 23 of 63 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:07
Raphael Assunção 0 13 of 42 30% 13 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
3 T.J. Dillashaw 0 24 of 61 39% 26 of 64 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:24
Raphael Assunção 0 22 of 53 41% 25 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
T.J. Dillashaw 64 of 195 32% 33 of 152 10 of 16 21 of 27 61 of 190 2 of 4 1 of 1
Raphael Assunção 49 of 140 35% 25 of 101 11 of 17 13 of 22 46 of 128 3 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 T.J. Dillashaw 18 of 72 25% 10 of 58 2 of 6 6 of 8 16 of 69 2 of 3 0 of 0
Raphael Assunção 14 of 45 31% 5 of 34 3 of 4 6 of 7 12 of 36 2 of 9 0 of 0
2 T.J. Dillashaw 22 of 62 35% 14 of 49 1 of 2 7 of 11 21 of 60 0 of 1 1 of 1
Raphael Assunção 13 of 42 30% 7 of 29 3 of 6 3 of 7 12 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 T.J. Dillashaw 24 of 61 39% 9 of 45 7 of 8 8 of 8 24 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raphael Assunção 22 of 53 41% 13 of 38 5 of 7 4 of 8 22 of 51 0 of 2 0 of 0
LOSS vs Dominick Cruz
Decision (split) (48–47, 46–49, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs. Cruz · Jan 17, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dominick Cruz 0 109 of 408 26% 130 of 430 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:11
T.J. Dillashaw 0 112 of 302 37% 122 of 312 4 of 11 36% 0 0 0:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dominick Cruz 0 19 of 87 21% 26 of 94 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:12
T.J. Dillashaw 0 21 of 62 33% 21 of 62 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:07
2 Dominick Cruz 0 16 of 79 20% 17 of 80 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
T.J. Dillashaw 0 17 of 52 32% 18 of 53 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:10
3 Dominick Cruz 0 19 of 77 24% 19 of 77 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
T.J. Dillashaw 0 19 of 54 35% 19 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:13
4 Dominick Cruz 0 22 of 70 31% 35 of 84 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:56
T.J. Dillashaw 0 25 of 58 43% 34 of 67 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
5 Dominick Cruz 0 33 of 95 34% 33 of 95 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
T.J. Dillashaw 0 30 of 76 39% 30 of 76 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dominick Cruz 109 of 408 26% 64 of 343 22 of 39 23 of 26 102 of 394 6 of 13 1 of 1
T.J. Dillashaw 112 of 302 37% 97 of 282 9 of 14 6 of 6 107 of 294 5 of 6 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dominick Cruz 19 of 87 21% 9 of 73 7 of 11 3 of 3 19 of 83 0 of 4 0 of 0
T.J. Dillashaw 21 of 62 33% 17 of 56 2 of 4 2 of 2 19 of 59 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Dominick Cruz 16 of 79 20% 11 of 73 1 of 1 4 of 5 16 of 79 0 of 0 0 of 0
T.J. Dillashaw 17 of 52 32% 14 of 49 2 of 2 1 of 1 16 of 50 1 of 1 0 of 1
3 Dominick Cruz 19 of 77 24% 9 of 65 5 of 7 5 of 5 18 of 76 1 of 1 0 of 0
T.J. Dillashaw 19 of 54 35% 17 of 52 2 of 2 0 of 0 18 of 52 1 of 1 0 of 1
4 Dominick Cruz 22 of 70 31% 15 of 58 2 of 7 5 of 5 17 of 63 4 of 6 1 of 1
T.J. Dillashaw 25 of 58 43% 21 of 52 1 of 3 3 of 3 24 of 57 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Dominick Cruz 33 of 95 34% 20 of 74 7 of 13 6 of 8 32 of 93 1 of 2 0 of 0
T.J. Dillashaw 30 of 76 39% 28 of 73 2 of 3 0 of 0 30 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raphael Assunção - Fight History
LOSS vs Davey Grant
Technical Submission (inverted triangle choke) R3 4:43 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Davey Grant 0 42 of 58 72% 67 of 85 5 of 12 41% 0 0 4:17
Raphael Assunção 1 65 of 138 47% 80 of 154 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Davey Grant 0 13 of 19 68% 23 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:46
Raphael Assunção 0 20 of 39 51% 20 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Davey Grant 0 16 of 20 80% 27 of 31 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:38
Raphael Assunção 0 20 of 44 45% 22 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Davey Grant 0 13 of 19 68% 17 of 23 2 of 7 28% 0 0 0:53
Raphael Assunção 1 25 of 55 45% 38 of 69 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:52
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Davey Grant 42 of 58 72% 16 of 29 8 of 8 18 of 21 38 of 53 3 of 4 1 of 1
Raphael Assunção 65 of 138 47% 28 of 91 18 of 28 19 of 19 59 of 132 4 of 4 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Davey Grant 13 of 19 68% 4 of 8 2 of 2 7 of 9 12 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Raphael Assunção 20 of 39 51% 5 of 21 7 of 10 8 of 8 20 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Davey Grant 16 of 20 80% 4 of 8 4 of 4 8 of 8 14 of 17 2 of 3 0 of 0
Raphael Assunção 20 of 44 45% 6 of 25 4 of 9 10 of 10 18 of 42 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Davey Grant 13 of 19 68% 8 of 13 2 of 2 3 of 4 12 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
Raphael Assunção 25 of 55 45% 17 of 45 7 of 9 1 of 1 21 of 51 2 of 2 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Raphael Assuncao vs. Davey Grant
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Grant (-140), Assuncao (+120)

Round 1
One of the more underrated bantamweight greats might be entering the final fight of his storied career, as longtime Brazilian contender Assuncao (28-9, 12-6 UFC) is a few months away from his 41st birthday. He battles .500 UFC fighter Grant (14-6, 5-5 UFC), who posts an 86% finish rate and generally lives up to his “Dangerous” nickname. The match will be officiated by nonsense-allergic referee Keith Peterson, and the two fighters opt to clap hands. Assuncao moves to the center of the cage briefly, and they clash legs early. As Assuncao pushes back, Grant does the same, and fingers rake eyes. Grant offers an apology, and they resume nailing one another on the legs. Assuncao sits down on a booming right hand, wrapping his arm just around the head and not connecting with it. Grant boots his foe in the body, and Assuncao catches it and scores a right hand to put Grant on his back. Assuncao whips an elbow down, and Grant threatens with a triangle choke that the Brazilian sees coming from a mile away. Grant scoots to the wall on his backside, and Assuncao follows him from behind and slides his left arm around the chest in hopes of setting up a rear-naked choke. Assuncao releases the arm so that he can punch Grant in the side of the head repeatedly, all while Grant tries and fails to scramble away. Grant stands back up despite Assuncao’s arm around his neck, and he spins around and shoves his man back to get space. Grant, with distance to strike, does just that with a front kick. Grant goes to the body and tries to swing a left hand over the top, but Assuncao intercepts him with a push kick. Grant scores a right hand after regaining his balance, and he switches stances right into a right hook in response. Assuncao lets go with a few punches on the inside, and he ducks back and blocks a head kick. Grant darts forward with a few punches, sneaking them in and evading the counters. Assuncao measures a right hand, and he signals to Peterson that the two clashed heads. Grant spins with a wheel kick that just misses, and Assuncao ducks a few leaping punches to clinch up and push Grant to the wire. The Brazilian lands a few knees to the thigh before breaking off with a right hand. Grant winds up with a right hook, landing it a second before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao

Round 2
The respect is high to start off the second round, as the two gladly high-five to get going again. They trade body kicks, and Assuncao leans back to dodge a spinning wheel kick. Assuncao checks a low kick, and he tries to engage but gets popped with an overhand right. Assuncao chips at the calf of his opponent, while checking those that come back to his lead wheel. Assuncao grabs hold of a single, ducking a punch from his opponent, and he is stood up before securing it. Assuncao does land a right hand on the break, and they reset. The two land lefts at the same time, and Grant goes high with a kick that whizzes past his foe’s face. Grant throws a naked leg kick, and Assuncao counters with an emphatic right hand that makes Grant turn about. Grant steps in to release a spinning back elbow, and Assuncao blocks the worst of it and fires off a low kick. Grant kicks high and low, and the Brazilian swats them away without much concern. Assuncao looses a head kick, and he backs off as Grant walks him down and wings right hooks. Grant lunges forward, and his only strike that lands is a low kick. Grant gets a little too reckless, getting countered on the way in, and he finds himself getting grabbed by the veteran. Grant is warned for grabbing the fence to prevent the takedown, and Assuncao still drags him to his knees despite the foul. Grant fights his way back to his feet, but Assuncao has his arm around Grant’s waist with his legs intertwined for a trip. Grant looks to counter Assuncao with a trip, only to get thrown down once more. Assuncao gets a hook in as he takes the back, and Grant defends himself from anything else until the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao

Round 3
The last round opens with a glove touch, and then the two throw hands. Both fighters connect with clean overhand rights, and they back off to measure one another. Assuncao beats the Brit to the punch with another right over the top, and Grant tries and fails to reach him back. As Grant advances, Assuncao kicks at his lead leg, which changes as Grant switches stances a few times. Assuncao hops away from a low kick, and he gets caught with a right hand coming in. Grant shucks him aside and strings a few punches together, ending it with a head kick that slides over the top. “Dangerous Davey” suddenly unleashes a torrent of punishment, blasting Assuncao with punches until he knocks Assuncao off-balance. Assuncao wobbles back to the fence, and he shoots for a desperation takedown to keep himself afloat. Grant defends the first try, but Assuncao redoubles his effort and pulls Grant’s ankle out to strip away his footing and put the Brit on his back. Assuncao holds on from an unorthodox half guard, but this posture allows Grant to explode back up. Grant fires off an uppercut that snaps Assuncao’s head back like a Pez dispenser, and he still has the Brazilian hurt. Grant tosses aside takedown entries from the veteran so that he can lay into him with punches, and he hurts Assuncao again in an exchange. Assuncao dives after a takedown, and Grant grabs the fence again to stop it. This time, Peterson has had enough of this nonsense, and he pauses the fight and deducts a point from Grant. Assuncao also loses his position from this, and Grant is thrilled so that he can tee off on the Brazilian some more. Assuncao struggles to stay on his feet from an onslaught of strikes, and Grant spins with a back fist that drills into the side of Assuncao’s head. Assuncao tries desperately to get the fight down, and he falls on top of Grant as the British fighter still tries to scramble.
“Dangerous Davey” wraps his legs around Assuncao’s neck to set up an inverted triangle choke, and the unexpected move is secured in a hurry. Assuncao is nonresponsive from on top after the choke gets tight, and he goes out without Peterson recognizing it immediately. Peterson reaches in to check on the Brazilian, who is completely unconscious, and he determines that Assuncao is out and stops the fight.
As soon as the fight is stopped, Assuncao’s coach, Eric Nicksick, is outraged from Peterson’s point deduction that also resulted in Assuncao losing his position, and it is explained that Grant had sat up and gained a superior position – and cannot be rewarded for gaining that position due to a foul. After Assuncao comes to, he removes his gloves and places them in the center of the cage to signal his retirement, while saying in his quick farewell interview that, “I think my time has come.”

The Official Result
Davey Grant def. Raphael Assuncao R3 4:43 via Technical Submission (Inverted Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Davey Grant

Angelo picks Davey Grant as the better striker with takedown defense that should hold up against the aging Assunção. He acknowledges Assunção's past success but believes Grant's power and composure will prevail. He notes the line at -160 is likely to move and considers it a safe pick.

line movement comment: expects line to close at -300
"I'm still going the Davey Grant side because I do think he's going to be the better Striker and his takedown defense should hold up."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Davey Grant

Big Brady picks Davey Grant, noting Grant has never looked this good and is in his prime at 37. He expects Grant to march forward with wild looping shots and put Assunção away, as Assunção has been knocked out recently by Garbrandt and Simon. Brady predicts a second-round knockout, though he acknowledges Assunção could win via wrestling if Grant struggles on the mat.

win by KO in round 2
"I think Davey Grant is going to March this guy down Wing big looping shots wild shots and I think he puts a sunset out here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Davey Grant

Cody picks Grant, citing Grant's toughness and ability to push the pace. He notes Assunção's age and recent surgery, but acknowledges Assunção could win a close decision. He calls it a close fight.

"I think I will go with Davey Grant don't feel great about it"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Raphael Assunção

Connor picks Assunção despite concerns about his age and recent performances. He believes Assunção's counter-striking, jab, and wrestling will be key against Grant's wild brawling style. He notes that Grant makes many mistakes and Assunção can take him down and control him, though there's always a risk of Grant landing a lucky shot.

Grant is favorite at -130 to -150; Assunção underdog at +110 to +120. Connor notes the line has moved toward Grant.
"I think I have to pick a Sun Tso too. That's it. I just think it's, I'm worried that he'll get knocked out because Grant's got a weird stuff is going to happen to him more and more."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Davey Grant

I think Grant's power will be too much for Assunção, who has shown durability issues at 40. Assunção is the better technical striker, but Grant throws heavy shots and can end the fight at any moment. Assunção's recent losses have come by knockout, and Grant has the power to exploit that. I expect a knockout within the first 12 minutes.

Grant by KO
"I think that one of those big shots from David Grant are going to get through within the first 12 minutes of this fight and I think that will likely be the end of the night"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Davey Grant

Paul picks Grant but is not confident, noting Assunção's low volume and close fights. He thinks Grant's volume and takedown defense could be key, but calls it a dicey fight and says he won't bet it.

"I'll take David Grant on price because they got 62 and a half which is super low for a grand fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Davey Grant

The MMA Guru picks Davey Grant, citing his toughness and finishing ability. He believes Grant can finish Assunção, while Assunção is unlikely to finish Grant. He notes Grant's win over Jonathan Martinez and his competitive fight with Adrian Yanez (which he thought Grant won). He predicts a KO in the second round.

by KO, second round
"I'm gonna go with Davey Grant too dangerous I think he finds a finish by KO second round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Raphael Assunção

Zane picks Assunção but is hesitant due to his age and recent decline. He notes that Assunção's counter-striking and wrestling should neutralize Grant's wild pressure, but Grant's power and unpredictability make it a risky pick. He mentions that Assunção has seen everything and should be able to handle Grant's style.

"I'm with you. I mean, I would expect these odds to be pretty close. Again, Sun Tso's old and we're both understandably nervous about his chances here."
WIN vs Victor Henry
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Oct 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raphael Assunção 0 60 of 91 65% 78 of 110 2 of 5 40% 0 0 4:29
Victor Henry 0 55 of 126 43% 61 of 134 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raphael Assunção 0 23 of 32 71% 23 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:30
Victor Henry 0 22 of 48 45% 25 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Raphael Assunção 0 17 of 29 58% 35 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:16
Victor Henry 0 15 of 27 55% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Raphael Assunção 0 20 of 30 66% 20 of 30 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:43
Victor Henry 0 18 of 51 35% 19 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raphael Assunção 60 of 91 65% 40 of 65 8 of 12 12 of 14 42 of 70 15 of 16 3 of 5
Victor Henry 55 of 126 43% 23 of 85 22 of 26 10 of 15 51 of 120 4 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raphael Assunção 23 of 32 71% 13 of 21 4 of 4 6 of 7 17 of 26 6 of 6 0 of 0
Victor Henry 22 of 48 45% 10 of 32 11 of 14 1 of 2 20 of 46 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Raphael Assunção 17 of 29 58% 11 of 20 2 of 4 4 of 5 9 of 18 5 of 6 3 of 5
Victor Henry 15 of 27 55% 4 of 13 5 of 5 6 of 9 14 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Raphael Assunção 20 of 30 66% 16 of 24 2 of 4 2 of 2 16 of 26 4 of 4 0 of 0
Victor Henry 18 of 51 35% 9 of 40 6 of 7 3 of 4 17 of 48 1 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Raphael Assuncao vs. Victor Henry
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Henry (-345), Assuncao (+285)

Round 1
At the ripe age of 40, some believe the book on longtime bantamweight contender Assuncao (27-9, 11-6 UFC) is coming towards its conclusion soon. In hopes of snapping a career-long rough patch of four losses in a row, Assuncao will try to show there are still more pages to be written as he takes on the well-traveled Henry (22-5, 1-0 UFC). The 135ers clap hands ahead of their scheduled melee, and referee Kerry Hatley is prepped and ready for what is about to go down. Henry strikes first with a kick to the thigh, and Assuncao responds with the exact same strike. Henry stalks down the UFC vet and lines up a right hand, but he misses the mark. Assuncao is tentative and switching stances, with his own attack largely muted as he seems coiled to wait for a response. Henry rips the body with a kick, and Assuncao catches it, leading to them both trading punches while Henry’s right leg is in the air. Henry pulls his leg out and resets, and he advances while tossing out a front kick. Assuncao sits down on a heavy left hand that graces the chin, and Henry takes note and feints and fakes multiple times. Henry ducks this telegraphed punch and stings his man with a left, and his body kick lands again solidly. Assuncao pushes a front kick up the middle, and he swings a left hook when Henry bears down on him. Henry gets his leg grabbed again, and Assuncao once more cannot set him down, but Assuncao releases it and strings together a solid one-two. Henry blinks it out and continues his constant forward pressure, and they end up clinching him until he can shake off the grip. Assuncao throws with bad intentions, and “La Mangosta” dodges the worst of them and releases a right hand that pops Assuncao in the chops. The Brazilian evades the second such hook, and he snatches Henry and turns him to the wall. Henry shoves him away and gains some space, and he marches on while Assuncao backs himself to the cage on the other side. They trade heavy punches, and a body kick from Henry bounces off the cup. Assuncao shakes his cup and they do not pause, so Henry boots Assuncao upside the head. Assuncao shrugs it off so that he can throw heavy hands, and he fires off alternating punches while Henry is backed up on the fencing. Henry slides out of the way and pushes the action, mixing in body kicks, low kicks and punches. As Henry gets fancy with a crescent kick, Assuncao snipes him with a right hand. Henry wades forward to engage, but the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Henry
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Henry
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Henry

Round 2
The bantamweights take the center of the cage and begin trading low kicks, and as if they both got the same memo, they switch to front kicks. Henry spins with a back kick, and Assuncao does the same, while neither lands flush. Henry pressures his man while spamming low kicks, softening the Brazilian up and dodging the right hook that wings by him. Assuncao connects with that heavy blow when he tries again, and Henry shakes his head and spins with a wheel kick. Assuncao capitalizes on this and jumps on top to take top position. Henry defends with an armbar setup off his back, but the veteran savvy of Assuncao pays off and allows him to move through it and keep striking. After a handful of powerful fists land on the dome, Henry explodes and gets back to his feet, only to be met with a head kick. Henry shrugs it off and gets out of the close range so he can initiate the offense. Henry swipes out with a left hand, and some swelling has developed on both cheeks of Assuncao. The bantamweights throw hammers at one another in close range, and Henry tries for a kick only for it to get caught. Henry tries to slug it out, but Assuncao lines up several clean right hands to knock Henry from one side of the cage to the other, all while hopping away. Assuncao uses this awkward situation to hit a takedown, and he finds himself in early submission danger. Assuncao punches his way out of it to open a cut on the left side of Henry’s face, but Henry doggedly pursues an armbar. The longtime contender fights off various submission setups including a shoulder lock and a toe hold, and Henry works his way to his feet right before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao

Round 3
A touch of gloves commences the final frame, and Henry walks his opponent down and gets slugged in the face with a right hand. Henry tries to make him may, but he gets clubbed with a left hook. Assuncao is connecting with clean, heavy counters, and Henry is taking a beating but still coming forward. Henry has kicks blocked and checked, but he slings a right hand that wobbles Assuncao. Henry strings several punches together, and Assuncao fires back with reckless abandon and far more power. Assuncao scoops up a leg and dumps Henry to the mat, and like the last two rounds, Henry threatens with a submission when landing. Assuncao turns through the possible triangle, but this allows Henry to stand back up. Henry walks Assuncao down and gets punched in the face for his effort, but not before landing a few shots of his own. Henry lashes out with an elbow, and Assuncao backs off and gives him a thumbs-up for the effective blow. Assuncao catches a body kick and drives Henry from wall to wall, but this time, there is no takedown to be had. Henry springs away and walks into a crisp right hand, and Henry shakes it out and eats a follow-up right hand. Henry slides out of the way from a power punch, but they are not one-and-done for the grizzled veteran. Henry absorbs a pair of knees up the middle as they get too close, and he resets and rushes forward with a right hand and a body kick. Assuncao clinches him up, and Henry attempts to dump him down but settles to release him and line up a solid one-two. Assuncao dives down for a double, where he switches to a single and picks Henry’s right leg up but cannot get the leverage to ground him. Henry tries to sneak in short shots on the inside while Assuncao is still hanging on to the leg, and he manages to keep his balance with his back against the wire. Henry sets it down with 10 seconds to spare, and Assuncao cracks him with a left hand. Henry races after him in hopes of one last ditch effort, but the bell rings to conclude the close match before he can reach his aging but very game opponent.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao (29-28 Assuncao)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao (29-28 Assuncao)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao (29-28 Assuncao)

The Official Result
Raphael Assuncao def. Victor Henry via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Victor Henry

Angelo picks Victor Henry, citing his impressive UFC debut over Honey Barcelos where he landed 222 strikes and defended six takedowns. He notes that Assunção is on a four-fight losing streak and older, but warns that the line (3-to-1) is wide and that Honey Barcelos looked bad in that fight. He thinks Victor wins but cautions that the odds may be too high for a confident bet.

Line is wide; premium members may have bets involving Henry
"I like Victor in this spot with that being said this line is absolutely why it's a very wide line"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Victor Henry

Big Brady confidently picks Victor Henry to win by decision. He notes that Assunção is 40, on a four-fight skid, and has very low volume, while Henry throws a ton of strikes (352 in his last fight). He believes Henry's pressure and output will overwhelm Assunção, and that Assunção's only path is wrestling, but Henry's takedown defense looked good against Barcelos. Brady sees a potential late finish but calls it a decision.

"this should be Victor Henry all day and it's not even close"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Victor Henry

Cody picks Victor Henry confidently, citing his impressive performance against Ronnie Barcelos where he landed 180 significant strikes. He notes Henry has volume, wrestling, and has fought tough competition in Japan. He thinks Assunção is old, slow, and has declined, and Henry should win by decision or TKO.

under 70.5 significant strikes for Henry on PrizePicks (mentioned by Paul, Cody agrees)
"I'm picking Victor Victor Henry but I got minus 400 it's like how often does he win this fight like eight out of 10 times."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Victor Henry

Henry is younger and in his prime, while Assunção is 40 and on a four-fight losing streak, with three finishes. Henry's pressure and volume should overwhelm Assunção, who may have declined durability. Henry is not a big power puncher, so a decision is likely. The host recommends parlaying Henry or taking the decision prop at +120.

Victor Henry by decision +120
"I will be in on uh the Victor Henry side here minus 330 sure you could possibly parlay it or even if you just want to go diving into the the the props here via decision is sitting at plus …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Victor Henry

Paul is confident in Victor Henry, noting his extensive career in Japan with wins over multiple UFC veterans. He thinks Henry's volume and wrestling will be too much for Assunção, who is 40 years old and has been knocked out in his last two fights. He picks Henry by decision but notes a TKO is possible.

under 70.5 significant strikes for Henry on PrizePicks (he argues no one has landed over 65 on Assunção in years)
"I got Victor Henry all day... he's got the volume he's got the wrestling."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Victor Henry

The MMA Guru picks Victor Henry as a no-brainer, citing his impressive short-notice win over Hani Barcelos. He notes that Assunção has shown a chin change after KO losses and may be hesitant. He believes Henry's pressure, size, and reach advantage will break Assunção over three rounds, winning by unanimous decision 30-27.

prediction: unanimous decision 30-27
"no brainer Victor Henry in my opinion"
LOSS vs Ricky Simón
KO/TKO R2 2:14 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
LOSS vs Cody Garbrandt
KO (punch) R2 4:59 · UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · Jun 06, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cody Garbrandt 0 17 of 52 32% 17 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raphael Assunção 1 19 of 43 44% 20 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cody Garbrandt 0 9 of 23 39% 9 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raphael Assunção 0 8 of 20 40% 8 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Cody Garbrandt 0 8 of 29 27% 8 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raphael Assunção 1 11 of 23 47% 12 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cody Garbrandt 17 of 52 32% 4 of 25 2 of 11 11 of 16 17 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raphael Assunção 19 of 43 44% 7 of 24 2 of 5 10 of 14 19 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cody Garbrandt 9 of 23 39% 2 of 11 0 of 4 7 of 8 9 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raphael Assunção 8 of 20 40% 1 of 10 0 of 2 7 of 8 8 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Cody Garbrandt 8 of 29 27% 2 of 14 2 of 7 4 of 8 8 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raphael Assunção 11 of 23 47% 6 of 14 2 of 3 3 of 6 11 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Raphael Assunção

Big Brady picks Raphael Assunção by second-round knockout, citing Garbrandt's poor chin and recent knockout losses. He thinks Assunção has underrated power and will catch Garbrandt. He acknowledges Garbrandt is the better striker but cannot trust his chin. He notes Assunção is the underdog and sees value.

Assunção by second-round knockout; value on Assunção at +125
"I'm gonna pick us out so I think he's going to you know keep this fight very close I think it's when we actually be a very close fight I do actually give the the lean gar Brant and the …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Raphael Assunção

Daniel believes Assunção's counter-striking style is a bad matchup for Garbrandt, who tends to get reckless when hurt. He notes Garbrandt's chin is compromised and that Munoz chopped his legs with calf kicks, which may have led to his desperate rush. He sees Assunção winning a close decision or possibly catching Garbrandt with counters, and calls it a dog-or-pass situation.

Assunção by decision, leg kicks
"I'm gonna go with ATL zone Raphael assumes how to get this one done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Cody Garbrandt

Cody Garbrandt has heavy hands and great footwork, and working with Mark Henry should improve his game planning. Raphael Assunção is a counter-striker with leg kicks, but Garbrandt's power and movement can overcome that. Garbrandt's chin has been questioned, but if he fights disciplined, he can land a knockout. The under 2.5 rounds is also a good play.

Under 2.5 rounds (+150); Cody Garbrandt by KO in round 2
"i like cody garbrandt i'm going to take him to win by by second round ko"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 29, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Raphael Assunção

The MMA Guru picks Raphael Assunção over Cody Garbrandt. He believes Garbrandt has an emotional issue that can't be trained out, leading to him getting KO'd again. He notes that Assunção has been training consistently and will crack Garbrandt with a big shot, finishing him in the first round by KO. He admits he previously picked Garbrandt but is done betting on him.

first round KO
"I'm picking by a son Sal I was gonna pick pedro muñoz to win by first round KO against God rang in his last fight I went with gar Brandt anyway hoping he would change his ways I'm done betting …"
LOSS vs Cory Sandhagen
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · Aug 17, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cory Sandhagen 0 45 of 81 55% 65 of 103 4 of 6 66% 0 0 2:10
Raphael Assunção 0 62 of 116 53% 78 of 135 0 of 1 0% 0 1 3:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cory Sandhagen 0 16 of 34 47% 17 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Raphael Assunção 0 25 of 52 48% 30 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:35
2 Cory Sandhagen 0 13 of 19 68% 20 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:57
Raphael Assunção 0 14 of 20 70% 22 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:53
3 Cory Sandhagen 0 16 of 28 57% 28 of 40 3 of 4 75% 0 0 1:07
Raphael Assunção 0 23 of 44 52% 26 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cory Sandhagen 45 of 81 55% 15 of 50 20 of 20 10 of 11 30 of 65 12 of 13 3 of 3
Raphael Assunção 62 of 116 53% 23 of 67 16 of 21 23 of 28 55 of 108 3 of 4 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cory Sandhagen 16 of 34 47% 3 of 20 9 of 9 4 of 5 11 of 29 5 of 5 0 of 0
Raphael Assunção 25 of 52 48% 8 of 31 6 of 8 11 of 13 25 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Cory Sandhagen 13 of 19 68% 4 of 10 6 of 6 3 of 3 6 of 11 4 of 5 3 of 3
Raphael Assunção 14 of 20 70% 2 of 7 6 of 6 6 of 7 8 of 13 2 of 3 4 of 4
3 Cory Sandhagen 16 of 28 57% 8 of 20 5 of 5 3 of 3 13 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0
Raphael Assunção 23 of 44 52% 13 of 29 4 of 7 6 of 8 22 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 0
LOSS vs Marlon Moraes
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 3:17 · UFC Fight Night: Assunção vs. Moraes 2 · Feb 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marlon Moraes 0 2 of 12 16% 3 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raphael Assunção 1 10 of 23 43% 12 of 25 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marlon Moraes 0 2 of 12 16% 3 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raphael Assunção 1 10 of 23 43% 12 of 25 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marlon Moraes 2 of 12 16% 1 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raphael Assunção 10 of 23 43% 8 of 17 0 of 2 2 of 4 7 of 18 0 of 0 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marlon Moraes 2 of 12 16% 1 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raphael Assunção 10 of 23 43% 8 of 17 0 of 2 2 of 4 7 of 18 0 of 0 3 of 5
WIN vs Rob Font
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier · Jul 07, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raphael Assunção 0 54 of 120 45% 93 of 161 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:31
Rob Font 0 20 of 122 16% 20 of 122 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raphael Assunção 0 14 of 41 34% 14 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rob Font 0 10 of 61 16% 10 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Raphael Assunção 0 15 of 34 44% 34 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:15
Rob Font 0 5 of 25 20% 5 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Raphael Assunção 0 25 of 45 55% 45 of 65 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:16
Rob Font 0 5 of 36 13% 5 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raphael Assunção 54 of 120 45% 41 of 98 4 of 7 9 of 15 36 of 95 1 of 1 17 of 24
Rob Font 20 of 122 16% 12 of 105 6 of 10 2 of 7 20 of 122 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raphael Assunção 14 of 41 34% 7 of 29 1 of 2 6 of 10 13 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rob Font 10 of 61 16% 5 of 47 3 of 7 2 of 7 10 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Raphael Assunção 15 of 34 44% 13 of 29 1 of 2 1 of 3 7 of 24 0 of 0 8 of 10
Rob Font 5 of 25 20% 3 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Raphael Assunção 25 of 45 55% 21 of 40 2 of 3 2 of 2 16 of 31 0 of 0 9 of 14
Rob Font 5 of 36 13% 4 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Matthew Lopez
KO (punch) R3 1:50 · UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · Nov 11, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raphael Assunção 1 46 of 154 29% 48 of 156 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Matthew Lopez 0 34 of 93 36% 36 of 95 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raphael Assunção 0 18 of 73 24% 19 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Matthew Lopez 0 18 of 43 41% 18 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:17
2 Raphael Assunção 0 20 of 55 36% 21 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Matthew Lopez 0 11 of 39 28% 13 of 41 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:11
3 Raphael Assunção 1 8 of 26 30% 8 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Matthew Lopez 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raphael Assunção 46 of 154 29% 24 of 123 6 of 12 16 of 19 45 of 153 1 of 1 0 of 0
Matthew Lopez 34 of 93 36% 16 of 68 12 of 19 6 of 6 34 of 93 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raphael Assunção 18 of 73 24% 10 of 61 2 of 5 6 of 7 17 of 72 1 of 1 0 of 0
Matthew Lopez 18 of 43 41% 8 of 31 6 of 8 4 of 4 18 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Raphael Assunção 20 of 55 36% 11 of 43 3 of 5 6 of 7 20 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matthew Lopez 11 of 39 28% 6 of 31 3 of 6 2 of 2 11 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Raphael Assunção 8 of 26 30% 3 of 19 1 of 2 4 of 5 8 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matthew Lopez 5 of 11 45% 2 of 6 3 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0