vs
-225 +215
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · Nov 23, 2024 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo Next Fight
Age 27
Height 6' 2"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 35
Height 6' 4"
Reach 79.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Zhang Mingyang
7.71 SLpM
60.0% Str. Acc.
5.33 SApM
43.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
75.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Ozzy Diaz
6.44 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
7.23 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Zhang Mingyang
Moneyline
DraftKings -225
KO/TKO
BetRivers -125
Submission
FanDuel +850
Decision
BetMGM +1000
Ozzy Diaz
Moneyline
FanDuel +215
KO/TKO
DraftKings +500
Submission
FanDuel +900
Decision
DraftKings +1400
Zhang Mingyang - Fight History
SCHED vs Alonzo Menifield
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alonzo Menifield vs. Mingyang Zhang
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zhang (-250); Menifield (+200)

Round 1
Make that six first-round finishes in 11 fights, and with that, it’s over to you two, Zhang (19-7; 3-1 UFC) and Menifield (17-6-1; 10-6-1 UFC). Also, no pressure, Zhang, but Chinese fighters are 0-5 with two chances to go. The light heavyweight co-main event will be overseen by Marc Goddard. Both kickboxers are in orthodox stance and quickly meet in the middle of the cage, where they exchange a wild flurry of punches in close quarters. Both men land solidly, and Menifield is stung by one of the blows, but catches Zhang with a clean counter. They take a mere second to reset and then swing away once again. It’s starting to look as if this thing might be over inside of 30 seconds, but the fighters take a deep breath and compose themselves. The composure does not last, however; after a brief respite in which they clinch against the fence for a few moments, Menifield explodes with punches and Zhang throws back. Menifield is hurt! Zhang follows with a string of right hands, and a few land, but
Menifield staggers a step back, shakes off the cobwebs and crushes Zhang with a powerful left jab, then a right uppercut, left hook combo that puts Zhang on his seat at the base of the fence. He drops several left hands to the head of the turtled and dazed “Mountain Tiger” and referee Goddard has seen enough.
The Galaxy Arena goes dead silent as Alonzo Menifield has capped off a wild round by knocking out China’s most promising up-and-coming fighter north of lightweight.

The Official Result
Alonzo Menifield def. Mingyang Zhang R1 4:15 via TKO (Punches)
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

AJ is very confident Zhang will win by knockout, citing his first-round KO history and Menifield's recent KO loss to Volkan Oezdemir. He notes Menifield struggles with power punchers and doesn't have elite wrestling or leg kicks. Zhang is 27, a decade younger, and has fast hands. AJ predicts a first-round KO, possibly in the first minute.

Zhang KO at -175; Zhang round 1 KO at +145
"I think Mingyang Zhang is going to find that chin. Menifield's coming off a pretty bad knockout loss 6 months ago to Volkan Oezdemir. Zhang similar to that with the hands, I think gets it done by KO, too."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

AJ is very confident in Zhang Mingyang, predicting a first-round knockout. He notes Menifield's age (38) and recent knockout losses, while Zhang is in his physical prime with heavy hands and speed. AJ believes Menifield's forward pressure plays into Zhang's boxing, and that Zhang will replicate the success of Menifield's previous KO loss.

Zhang Mingyang by KO -145 mentioned; Zhang by KO round 1 or 2 +155; round 1 KO +500; round 2 KO mentioned
"Ming Zang should dust the side of Allo Menafield. I think that he's knocking him out probably first round."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 18, 2026 (12 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

AJ picks Zhang, expecting a first-round KO. He notes Zhang's power, elbows, and hand speed will overwhelm Menifield, who has been knocked out violently in recent losses. AJ thinks Menifield's lack of takedown threat and poor chin will lead to a quick finish.

Zhang Mingyang wins by KO/TKO in round 1
"I'm going with Mingyang Zhang. I think he's about to knock Alonzo Menifield senseless. ... Mingyang Zhang has big knockout power in both hands. He's got nasty elbows."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 24, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Angelo picks Zhang Mingyang, believing he is faster, has a better chin, and is more powerful than the aging Menifield. He notes that Menifield's leg kicks are not a threat like Johnny Walker's, so Mingyang's durability shouldn't be an issue. He thinks Mingyang will let his hands go and win, though Menifield remains dangerous.

"Mingyang Jiang is the pick. Allonzo's still dangerous at this age, but he's not quite who he used to be."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 29, 2026 (fight day)
Zhang Mingyang

Angelo picks Zhang Mingyang to win by knockout, arguing that Menifield is chinny and has been knocked out in three of his last four losses. He believes Menifield lacks the leg kicks that troubled Zhang against Johnny Walker and that Zhang's power will prevail in a pocket fight.

knockout predicted; consider in lineup but Sergey more likely for KO
"I think Mingyang Jiang finds the finish here. Alonzo Menfield has been knocked out in three of his last four losses."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Angelo picks Zhang Mingyang because he is too big, too long, and should come forward and find the finish. He notes that Alonzo Menifield is an aging vet with declining speed and chin. However, he is nervous because Zhang lost his last fight to leg kicks.

"I do think Jiang's going to get the finish here. I think he's just too big, too long, and I think he's going to come forward and find the spot."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Big Brady picks Zhang Mingyang by first-round knockout, noting that Zhang has never won a fight after the first round, so if Menifield survives five minutes his chances skyrocket. He views Menifield as potentially washed at 38, coming off a KO loss, and having taken a ton of damage. He acknowledges the line is steep at -240 but believes the UFC is setting Zhang up for a win in China.

first round knockout
"I'm going to pick him how he wins fights and that's going to be first round knockout. I think he's going to knock out menfield in the very first round here."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Cody picks Zhang Mingyang despite acknowledging his cardio issues and the risk if the fight goes past the first round. He highlights Zhang's speed, low calf kicks, and the advantage of fighting in China. Cody notes Menifield's durability issues and that he's been knocked out four times, all in under two rounds. He believes Zhang's game plan of leg kicks and speed will pay dividends, but admits the longer the fight goes, the more trouble Zhang is in.

Zhang Mingyang first round knockout likely; live betting Menifield if it reaches second round
"The low calf kicks I think will pay dividends. The speed advantage will pay dividends, but the longer the fight goes, we're in some serious problem with Menfield."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Levi picks Zhang Mingyang despite his loss to Johnny Walker, believing the setback was a wake-up call. He thinks Zhang has the length, reach, and firepower to put Menifield away, though he acknowledges Menifield has upset prospects before. Levi expects a knockout.

Zhang Mingyang by KO/TKO; odds: Zhang -250, Menifield +210
"I think he's got the length, he's got the reach, he's got the firepower to come out here and put Allonzo Menfield away."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Jacob picks Zhang Mingyang because Alonzo Menifield is a smaller light heavyweight and Zhang is a well-rounded 27-year-old. He thinks the UFC gave Zhang a favorable matchup after his loss to Johnny Walker. He believes Zhang will come forward with big elbows and shots.

"I think it's a good bounceback spot for Jiang. You want to take the Johnny Walker and be worried about it. I think it's a completely different fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 23, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

Lucrative James picks Alonzo Menifield as a plus money underdog, citing major red flags on Zhang Mingyang after his loss to Johnny Walker where he showed poor leg kick defense and cardio issues. He notes Menifield's experience, durability, and ability to grit out wins, while Zhang has not faced adversity well. He believes Menifield's power and pressure will be too much, and predicts a finish inside the distance, possibly by submission in round two.

Alonzo Menifield inside the distance, round 2, submission
"I am going to pick Alonzo Menfield to win this fight. I'm gonna pick him to win this fight inside the distance. I'm gonna pick him to win this fight in round two."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 25, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

The host picks Menifield as an underdog, citing his experience and power. He believes if Menifield avoids Mingyang's early knockout power, he can cruise in deeper waters. He notes Mingyang has never won a fight past the first round and questions his durability. He expects Menifield to counter and knock out Mingyang.

I would rather take the under one and a half or take round one.
"I got to take my chances on Menfield here. There's no way you can tell me that Menfield's not worth it at minus 210."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

The host picks Alonzo Menifield, especially at plus 210 odds. He believes Menifield will have a better game plan, keep his feet moving, mix it up in the clinch, and potentially go for takedowns. With his atomic power, he expects Menifield to put Zhang Mingyang away within the first two rounds.

plus 210 odds, inside first two rounds
"I believe Menfield is the side here, especially at plus 210. I think he'll be able to come in with a better game plan ... I think we'll see him come through with that here as he puts Mingyang Jang …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

Paul picks Menifield as a value play, acknowledging the risk of a first-round knockout. He notes Menifield's veteran experience, submission grappling advantage, and the possibility of dragging the fight into later rounds. Paul took a small sprinkle on Menifield by submission at +880 and plans to live bet Menifield if he survives the first round. He admits he can't get to -240 on Zhang and is willing to accept the risk.

Menifield by submission +880; Menifield round three prop; live betting Menifield in round two
"I'm gonna pick him for the purposes of this show just because like I just can't get to minus 240 on Jien. If he knocks him out in round one, like so be it."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 20, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

The Guru picks Mingyang Zhang over Alonzo Menifield, citing Zhang's devastating power and Menifield's glass chin. He believes Zhang's fearless pressure will lead to an early knockout, as Menifield tends to stand and trade. He notes Menifield's history of being knocked out by power punchers.

"I'm going to go Mingyang Zhang to win this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

The Guru picks Menifield as an underdog, citing his grit and multiple paths to victory. He notes Menifield has good head movement, power, and grappling with nasty ground and pound. Mingyang starts fast with power and elbows but fades after round one. Menifield can win in any round or by decision.

"I think Manifield wins this fight unless he gets knocked out in the first round."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 20, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

The MMA Guru picks Zhang Mingyang to win by knockout in the first round. He notes that Zhang's technical boxing is good and he will box from range, while Menifield relies on overhands and cage pushing. He believes Zhang will find boxing success and knock out Menifield, as long as he doesn't get caught by a big shot.

"We're going to see Jang Mman win this fight by knockout in the first round and it should be pretty fun."
LOSS vs Johnny Walker
KO R2 2:37 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Aug 23, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Johnny Walker 1 50 of 67 74% 51 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:20
Zhang Mingyang 0 20 of 47 42% 28 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Johnny Walker 0 9 of 22 40% 10 of 25 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:39
Zhang Mingyang 0 12 of 30 40% 20 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:21
2 Johnny Walker 1 41 of 45 91% 41 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:41
Zhang Mingyang 0 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Johnny Walker 50 of 67 74% 36 of 49 1 of 5 13 of 13 15 of 26 2 of 4 33 of 37
Zhang Mingyang 20 of 47 42% 8 of 35 6 of 6 6 of 6 15 of 39 4 of 6 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Johnny Walker 9 of 22 40% 3 of 12 1 of 5 5 of 5 7 of 18 2 of 4 0 of 0
Zhang Mingyang 12 of 30 40% 6 of 24 5 of 5 1 of 1 7 of 22 4 of 6 1 of 2
2 Johnny Walker 41 of 45 91% 33 of 37 0 of 0 8 of 8 8 of 8 0 of 0 33 of 37
Zhang Mingyang 8 of 17 47% 2 of 11 1 of 1 5 of 5 8 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Johnny Walker vs. Mingyang Zhang

Round 1
The moment of truth has arrived, as Zhang stakes his 12-fight win streak—the last four in the Octagon—against Walker in an attempt to take a huge step towards becoming China’s second UFC champion. Walker, for his part, seeks to prove he has made strides in fight IQ and defense to go with his outlandish physical gifts and offensive arsenal. In an eminently sensible move, Marc Goddard, the largest referee available, has pulled main event duty. Zhang reaches out for a glove touch. Walker trots across the cage, ducks under his foe’s outstretched hand and shoots for a takedown. It isn’t terribly sporting, but more importantly it backfires, as he ends up with Zhang on top of him in his guard. Zhang tries to capitalize with some elbow strikes, but Walker manages to survive the miscue with little damage. Zhang lets him return to his feet and hurts him with a right hand. Zhang gives chase as Walker stumbles to the fence, and is forced to back off as Walker whiffs with a huge haymaker. Walker comes up short with a flying knee. Zhang clinches and drives Walker to the fence. Two minutes to go and they finally separate. Zhang is still in pursuit, but ends up chasing the Brazilian around the cage rather than cutting angles. Walker shoots a long double-leg and Zhang snuffs it out easily. Zhang rocks Walker with a big elbow inside. Walker backs off and returns to sliding around the perimeter, Zhang in tow. Zhang slaps a high kick off the side of Walker’s head at the clapper.
10-9 Zhang.

Round 2
Zhang is the aggressor to open Round 2, but Walker continues to move laterally, refusing to be trapped against the fence. The pace has slowed a bit, a minute into the round, but Zhang steps forward and lands two straight right hands that make the big man stumble. Walker creeps forward and meets Zhang in the center of the cage.
Walker lands a hard leg kick, then another. Zhang is in trouble, having taken some kind of serious damage from the kicks. Walker connects with another low kick, but Zhang is already on his way down. Walker pounces on his stricken foe, delivering some huge punches and elbows, and the suspense is suddenly over whether he will manage to get himself disqualified, as the blows rain all over Zhang’s head, while he grounds and ungrounds himself.
Enough legal blows get through—and no blatantly illegal ones—that the outcome becomes obvious to all, and Goddard moves in to halt the beating. A wild end to a wild fight.

The Official Result
Johnny Walker def. Mingyang Zhang R2 2:37 via TKO (Punches and Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Angelo is very confident in Zhang Mingyang, calling him a dangerous finisher on feet and ground. He criticizes Johnny Walker for losing his craziness after training at SBG Ireland and becoming chinny. He thinks this is a showcase for the hometown guy and that Walker will get knocked out. He says Mingyang should be a much heavier favorite.

Odds are -400 for Mingyang; Angelo thinks he should be a much heavier favorite.
"Four to one favorite on Mingyang Jang. He should be a 1400 to1 favorite. Obviously, it's a fist fight. Anything could happen in a fist fight. But this is not a good matchup for Johnny Walker."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Big Brady picks Zhang Mingyang to win by first-round knockout, stating that Johnny Walker has a glass chin and has been knocked out six times. He notes that Zhang hits very hard and that Walker is unlikely to wrestle given his history. He believes the fight will be a striking match and that Zhang will knock Walker out early. He does not like the -310 line or the props.

Zhang Mingyang by first round KO; props are horrible
"I'm going Jong Ming to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Connor believes Johnny Walker is a broken fighter after training at SBG Ireland, where he lost his aggressive brawling style and now moves around aimlessly without a clear game plan. He notes that Walker's last three fights show him getting annihilated, and that Zhang Mingyang, while unproven, is a big, fast, aggressive brawler who will likely just throw punches until Walker gets knocked out. Connor thinks this fight will be less competitive than Walker's loss to Anthony Smith.

Odds: Zhang opened at -400, now -310; Walker opened +330, now +260. Connor notes the odds are not as wide as he expected, suggesting the market hasn't fully realized Walker's decline.
"Like young Ming young might not be a nuanced or deft striker in any way, but he is probably just gonna go out there and throw stuff at Johnny Walker until Johnny Walker gets knocked out."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

The host notes that all 19 of Mingyang's victories have come in the first round and expects him to continue that trend against Johnny Walker, who has comically horrible durability at this stage. He thinks Mingyang will take the pace immediately, dictate range, and land big shots to get Walker out in the first round by knockout.

win by KO/TKO, inside 1 round
"All 19 victories for Ciang have come in the first round and I expect him to continue that trend here against Johnny Walker who has comically horrible durability at this stage of his career. And I think we'll see Jiang …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

The MMA Guru picks Zhang Mingyang to win by first-round KO. He expresses no trust in Johnny Walker's chin, noting that Walker gets knocked out repeatedly. He highlights that all of Zhang's wins are first-round KOs and that he found the punch on Brenson Ribeiro, who is tall and rangy. He believes Zhang is a master at finding those shots and that Walker is chinny enough to get put down. He acknowledges that Walker might try to grapple, but expects the fight to be decided in the pocket.

Zhang Mingyang by first round KO
"I'm going to have to go with Jangyang. I can't trust Johnny Walker to get hit on the chin by a professional fighter."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Zane agrees with Connor that Johnny Walker is broken, citing his lack of direction and inability to execute a neutralizing game plan. He points out that Walker's footwork is poor and he can't hold opponents off with range tools, making him an easy target for Zhang's aggression. Zane expects Zhang to win by knockout, as Walker's fight response has turned into a flight response.

"I think this could look less competitive than the Anthony Smith fight where Anthony Smith literally spent like two full minutes on his knees begging the referee to step in."
WIN vs Anthony Smith
KO R1 4:03 · UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates · Apr 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Smith 0 10 of 21 47% 11 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Zhang Mingyang 0 63 of 81 77% 76 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Smith 0 10 of 21 47% 11 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Zhang Mingyang 0 63 of 81 77% 76 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Smith 10 of 21 47% 8 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 10 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zhang Mingyang 63 of 81 77% 42 of 58 6 of 8 15 of 15 35 of 46 3 of 4 25 of 31
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Smith 10 of 21 47% 8 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 10 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zhang Mingyang 63 of 81 77% 42 of 58 6 of 8 15 of 15 35 of 46 3 of 4 25 of 31
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mingyang Zhang vs. Anthony Smith
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zhang (-500), Smith (+380)

Round 1
The purported last dance for storied veteran Smith (38-21, 13-11 UFC) has arrived, as he plans on calling it quits at the conclusion of his 60th pro outing, win or lose. Getting the honor of facing Smith on the way out, Zhang (18-6, 2-0 UFC) is a massive betting favorite having won his last 11 bouts by first-round stoppage. If that is soon to become 12, or if Smith can pull one more rabbit out of the hat, referee Jason Herzog will be the first to know. The emotional Smith does not touch gloves before getting down to it, and everyone in the building sharply inhales ahead of what’s about to come. Zhang attempts to strike first, with a high kick that is blocked and a low kick that is not. Zhang kicks the lead leg two more times, and a third flusters Smith and forces him to engage. Smith wings punches that do not land cleanly, and Zhang kicks his front leg again. The low kicks have already done some damage, as he is preemptively lifting his leg up to defend against them. Zhang has a few punches pound into the guard, and Smith ties him up. Zhang scores short knees on the inside, and Smith leans his weight on his opponent and frames off for an elbow that never comes. Zhang escapes, and Smith follows him and walks through low kicks and elbows. Zhang wraps a stern right hand around the guard, and his leg kicks continue scoring. Smith gets off an elbow through the guard, and he is quickly answered by a low kick. Smith jams another elbow on the dome, and Zhang gives him one back and slashes open a cut on the top of his head. Blood flows fast down his head, and he shakes his head to get it out of his eyes. Smith wipes his eyes out as Zhang keeps striking, and the nasty elbows from Zhang find their home on his cheek again and again. Smith says enough is enough when it comes to those strikes, and he shoots in for a naked takedown from afar. Zhang lands a strike to the back of the head, and Smith pulls guard to drag him into the grappling world. Smith sits up, and Herzog tells Zhang he is down and not to kick or knee him in the head. Smith takes some shots, and he sits up and gets bowled over with punches and elbows that continue battering him.
Herzog tells Smith to move, eventually raising his voice to scream that he needs to do something. Giving Smith way more time than most would be, Herzog allows Zhang to beat Smith down and spray blood all over the mat. Smith shells up on his side, the damage suddenly a bit too much for him. Smith falls to his back, and Zhang clobbers him until Herzog has seen enough
. Smith sits up and calls for a bucket, and he stands up and gives a middle finger to someone in the audience. “Lionheart” marches to the cage wall and shouts down someone in the crowd, and everyone looks around confusedly while Zhang tries to calm his opponent down. Smith shakes out of it, and he raises Zhang’s arm in the air to congratulate him for crushing his final moment to shine. MMA is a cruel sport at times, but as Smith fades away, it is possible—however unlikely—that China has a new star on its hands in the form of “Mountain Tiger” and his 100% finish rate. Zhang is now a ranked fighter, while Smith takes his gloves off to complete his retirement ceremony. Whether this is his final fight or not, the choice remains in the hands of the 36-year-old former title challenger.

The Official Result
Mingyang Zhang def. Anthony Smith R1 4:03 via TKO (Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Angelo picks Zhang Mingyang, believing his power and grappling will be too much for an aging Anthony Smith. He notes that Mingyang is a grappler at core with great takedowns, and that Smith's grappling is not a threat. He is slightly nervous because Mingyang is untested, but he has him in a parlay.

Parlay with Jaqueline Amorim and Ikram Aliskerov at -150
"I think Ming Yang gets it done. I'm pretty confident in him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Big Brady picks Zhang Mingyang, citing Anthony Smith's decline and poor reaction to punches. He expects Zhang's power to land a big shot and finish Smith early. He notes Smith has been counted out before but still favors Zhang by first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"Give me Jeang Mingong to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Connor picks Zhang because he believes Anthony Smith is a head case who has been declining and reverting to his old, losing ways. Smith's recent fights show him getting discouraged easily and running out of ideas. Zhang is a durable brawler who can soak up damage and extend exchanges, and Smith's current mental state makes him vulnerable to Zhang's pressure and power.

"I'm not picking him either. I just think, you know, he could totally win it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 25, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

The host leans Mingyang with low confidence, noting that if Mingyang doesn't get a first-round KO, Smith could take over late or get a submission. He expects Mingyang to find a shot, put Smith on wobbly legs, and finish with ground and pound in the first round.

first round KO
"I am going to lean with Jen with very low confidence as I think he ends up finding that shot to put Smith on wobbly legs and follow up with some ground and pound to get him out of there …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

The MMA Guru picks Zhang Mingyang to win by TKO in the first round. He is very high on Mingyang, calling him a real deal prospect with knockout power and sharp technique. He criticizes Anthony Smith's predictable style, emotional state (crying on walkout), and lack of a serious mindset. He believes Mingyang will overwhelm Smith early.

TKO round 1
"I think Jang Minyang is going to TKO him in the first round. And this is Smith's retirement fight. I'm not considering he's going to train harder for this than he has for any other fight in his career."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Zane picks Zhang, noting that even the worst version of Anthony Smith has the tools to beat Zhang, but Smith's emotional struggles and tendency to shut down make him unreliable. Zhang is fearless, powerful, and will fight without hesitation, which is a bad matchup for the current version of Smith. Zane also mentions that Smith's recent performances show him getting discouraged and losing focus.

"I'm not gonna pick him in the middle of all the struggles and just assume that the incredibly obvious, horrible emotional burden that he was, has carried with him into the cage before is gone."
WIN vs Ozzy Diaz
TKO (elbow and punches) R1 2:25 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · Nov 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zhang Mingyang 1 17 of 34 50% 19 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Ozzy Diaz 0 9 of 12 75% 9 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zhang Mingyang 1 17 of 34 50% 19 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Ozzy Diaz 0 9 of 12 75% 9 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zhang Mingyang 17 of 34 50% 9 of 24 2 of 4 6 of 6 15 of 26 0 of 0 2 of 8
Ozzy Diaz 9 of 12 75% 4 of 7 5 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zhang Mingyang 17 of 34 50% 9 of 24 2 of 4 6 of 6 15 of 26 0 of 0 2 of 8
Ozzy Diaz 9 of 12 75% 4 of 7 5 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mingyang Zhang vs. Osman Diaz

Round 1
The main card has begun, and all the Road to UFC fights are behind us. It’s time for some action. Light heavyweight finishers that sport matching 100% stoppage rates come to blows, and referee Kevin Sataki better fasten his safety belt. Zhang (17-6, 1-0 UFC) has the crowd behind him and a ton of momentum with 10 straight knockouts at his back. LFA vet Diaz (9-2, 0-0 UFC) will certainly not shy away from a brawl, and it could get wild in a hurry. The two clap their hands together, and it is Zhang who moves directly to the center of the cage. The fans are energized and chanting support for “Mountain Tiger,” who leads the dance with a push kick and then two calf kicks. Diaz leaps forward with a left hand that is blocked, and he ducks down and nearly gets kneed. Zhang splits the guard with a leaping left hand, and Diaz lunges at him back with a jab. Diaz’ jab is countered by a few leg kicks, and Zhang reaches him with a left hand up top. Diaz scores a right hand to make the Chinese fighter smile, and Zhang races after him loaded for bear. Diaz backs him off with an overhand right, and he slips away from a body jab but cannot get out of the way of a one-two. Diaz plunks his foe with a right hand around the guard, and Zhang smiles and resets.
Zhang hammers the front leg, and he nails Diaz with a short but devastating elbow that puts Diaz down. Barely still with it, Diaz turns to his knees and turtles up, and the man from China rushes after him to pummel him. About a dozen swarming punches get through from Zhang before Sataki has seen enough
, and Zhang’s 100% finish rate—all in the first round—stays intact by crushing the LFA vet. The crowd goes wild.

The Official Result
Mingyang Zhang def. Osman Diaz R1 2:25 via TKO (Elbow and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Angelo picks Zhang Mingyang, citing his superior grappling and power. He notes Ozzy Diaz is chinny and skinny, and expects Zhang to finish inside the distance. He suggests looking for extra juice on Zhang inside the distance.

Zhang inside the distance; fight won't go to distance
"Jiang is going to be the pick here you're probably safe to try to find a little extra juice like Jiang inside the distance"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Big Brady picks Zhang Mingyang to win by first-round knockout. He thinks the odds are off but notes Ozzy Diaz is very hitable and has a questionable chin, often getting beaten up before mounting a comeback. Zhang has tremendous power and is likely to land early. Brady expects a violent first-round finish, as Zhang has never won a fight that went past the first round.

Zhang Mingyang wins by KO in round 1
"I think the most likely scenario is a jang mingyong first round knockout and that's what I'll go with"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ozzy Diaz

Cody picks Diaz as a live underdog, arguing that Zhang's record is built on weak competition and he has been knocked out or submitted in most losses. Diaz has fought better competition, trains at Kings MMA, and has power and a ground game. He expects a banger where Diaz's experience and durability give him the edge, possibly by knockout.

"I would take aie Diaz yeah I can't really disagree with very much there it just seems it's like an absolute car crash"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Connor picks Zhang but hesitantly, noting that Diaz's pressure and composure could take Zhang into the second round, where Zhang historically loses. He acknowledges that King's MMA fighters often overperform and Diaz could survive the early storm. However, Connor thinks Zhang's power and brawling are a good answer for Diaz's style, and he's not ready to fade Zhang yet.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I think he's a very reasonable pick as well. But you know how loathe we are to trust first-round knockout machines."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Daniel Vreeland picks Zhang Mingyang, a Chinese knockout artist on a 10-fight win streak. He notes Diaz's tendency to get beaten up early before opponents gas, but believes Zhang will not gas out and will finish him. Vreeland highlights Zhang's devastating ground and pound and chin-finding ability, expecting a knockout in Macau.

by KO
"I'm going Ming yangang Jang to come out here and get a devastating knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ozzy Diaz

Paul agrees, noting that Zhang's wins are over nobodies and his losses are by finish. Diaz has trained with high-level partners and has power in his hands. He thinks the plus money is worth a shot in a volatile matchup where both have knockout power, but Diaz's superior competition gives him the edge.

"give me the guy who trains it with a good gym in California get good looks I mean it comes down to Who's Who skull can take you know who can who who skull can take a concussive blow"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

The MMA Guru picks Zhang Mingyang over Ozzy Diaz, citing Zhang's power and finishing instincts. He notes Zhang knocked out Branson Ribero in his debut and knocked out Tokotos on Road to UFC. He views Diaz as a 'skinny fat' athlete who got smoked by Joe Pyfer and has a questionable win over Bavon Lewis. He predicts a first-round TKO for Zhang.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with mingyang Jang over Aussie Diaz"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Zane picks Zhang Mingyang, citing his brawling power and first-round finishing ability. He notes that Diaz is a functional pressure fighter but lacks elite athleticism, and Zhang's power could put him away early. Zane acknowledges that Zhang is a first-round knockout machine and usually loses if he goes past the first, but Diaz's style plays into Zhang's strengths.

Diaz opened +253, now +273; Zhang opened -301, now -329. Zane says 'these odds should not be getting wider' and 'Zhong is not that guy to have wide odds.'
"I'm going to take Zhang Mingyang just to land the kind of shots on Diaz walking in that have put Diaz to sleep before."
KO (punches) R1 1:41 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zhang Mingyang 1 17 of 28 60% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Brendson Ribeiro 0 14 of 31 45% 14 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zhang Mingyang 1 17 of 28 60% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Brendson Ribeiro 0 14 of 31 45% 14 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zhang Mingyang 17 of 28 60% 13 of 19 2 of 5 2 of 4 14 of 25 0 of 0 3 of 3
Brendson Ribeiro 14 of 31 45% 14 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0 14 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zhang Mingyang 17 of 28 60% 13 of 19 2 of 5 2 of 4 14 of 25 0 of 0 3 of 3
Brendson Ribeiro 14 of 31 45% 14 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0 14 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mingyang Zhang vs. Brendson Ribeiro
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zhang (-142), Ribeiro (+120)

Round 1
Opening up the ESPN prelims is likely to be an explosive one, as these two fighters come in with 31 finishes across their 31 pro wins. Zhang (16-6, 1-0 UFC) worked his way to the UFC courtesy of a spot on the Road to UFC qualifier, and Ribeiro (15-5, 1 NC; 0-0 UFC) is yet another DWCS pickup. With the majority of their combined victories via first-round stoppage, referee Mike Beltran cannot take his eyes off the prize for even a second. The light heavyweights hesitantly touch ‘em up, and Zhang moves forward to kick low to start off. Ribeiro swings for the bleachers, and when he comes up short, Zhang boots him in the ribs. Ribeiro flicks out a jab that stings Zhang, and Ribeiro is quick to follow with a one-two that stuns him and draws a smile from the Chinese contender. Ribeiro unloads a pair of punches, and Zhang stands right in front of him and is ready to hurl back with bad intentions. Ribeiro bloodies up Zhang’s mouth, and they both hurl huge shots at one another. Zhang takes a right hand on the eye socket, and he raises his arm to call time. Beltran tells him to keep fighting, and fight he does.
Zhang sticks out a jab, wings a right hook and chains it into a ferocious left hook that all land cleanly, and Ribeiro might be out before the back of his head bounces of the canvas. Just to seal the deal, Zhang drives down three jackhammering hammerfists, and Beltran recognizes that Ribeiro’s goose is cooked and waves the fight off.
In the hierarchy of the jungle, “Mountain Tiger” destroyed “Gorilla” tonight.

The Official Result
Mingyang Zhang def. Brendson Ribeiro R1 1:41 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Brendson Ribeiro

Angelo picks Brendson Ribeiro as the underdog, citing his more dangerous offense and Zhang's hollow record. He notes Ribeiro is hittable and can be finished, so he won't bet on him unless the line moves further. He thinks Ribeiro's aggression and power can get the job done.

"I'm going the dog here I like robero I think his offense is more the more dangerous of the two"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brendson Ribeiro

Big Brady picks Brendson Ribeiro as a dog, citing his significant reach advantage (6 inches) and power. He notes that Zhang Mingyang is hitable and has been knocked out three times. He acknowledges both fighters have red flags but believes Ribeiro's offense and length will be too much. He says nobody should be favored here and has low confidence.

Ribeiro by KO, round 1
"I will take the dog here in Brenson robero just because this guy is going to have a pretty significant reach six inch reach Advantage he hits very very hard"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brendson Ribeiro

Cody picks Ribeiro, recalling his terrifying appearance on Contender Series. He notes Zhang's loss to a fraudulent fighter (Oscar Mova) as a red flag. He believes Ribeiro's ground game gives him an edge if he can land first. He sees this as a dog-or-pass fight and takes the plus money.

under 1.5 rounds (expected to be juiced)
"I'll go with the devil I know in the fact that like Brenson robero for 15 or he was 14 and five going into Contender series like I watched him and I'm like that's a dangerous man..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brendson Ribeiro

Daniel picks Brendson Ribeiro as a dog. He dislikes Zhang's competition level, noting he has fought short heavy Chinese men he's never heard of. He also cites Zhang's inactivity (1.5 years). He likes Ribeiro's length, well-roundedness, and finishing ability. He acknowledges that Ribeiro's regional Brazilian competition isn't great either, but prefers his Contender Series performance over Zhang's Road to UFC wins.

"I'm going with the dog I'm going with hiier here um I really don't like jiang's competition when you look at it on paper... I like hi's length I like his well-roundedness obviously I like his finishing ability."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brendson Ribeiro

Daniel Vreeland picks Brendson Ribeiro, favoring the Brazilian over the Chinese fighter. He notes Ribeiro's better level of competition, training at a good camp, and six-inch reach advantage. He believes both are hittable but expects Ribeiro to knock out Zhang. He does not recommend a big wager.

"I slightly favor Brenson as well... just give me Brazil over China in MMA."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Jeff picks Zhang Mingyang, disagreeing with Daniel. He was impressed by Zhang's performance on Road to UFC, where he beat George Tokos with sharp boxing and composure. He notes that Zhang's punches come in straight and he doesn't overextend, even when hurting opponents. In contrast, he criticizes Ribeiro for overextending on the Contender Series despite a reach advantage. He believes Zhang will pick Ribeiro apart and find a knockout.

"I'm gonna go with mingyang here and uh I you know I was in the same boat as you with mingy Yang's competition going into that road to the UFC fight... I was infinitely impressed."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Brendson Ribeiro

Ribeiro is calm under pressure and can throw power from his back foot. His key is taking Mingyang to the mat, where he can find dominant positions and land big shots for a TKO. Expects a finish in the first or second round.

"I think his key to victory in this match will be able to take mingyang to the mat and from there he does great work in terms of finding the dominant position required to posture up and land big shots …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brendson Ribeiro

Paul picks Ribeiro as a dog, noting both fighters are glass cannons with first-round finishes. He mentions Ribeiro's ground game and ability to swarm with ground and pound. He sees this as a classic dog-or-pass fight and takes the plus money on Ribeiro.

under 1.5 rounds (expected to be juiced)
"I got to go with rerel plus 125 Underdog someone's getting cracked I take the under on this thing the fight doesn't go the distance."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brendson Ribeiro

The MMA Guru picks Brendson Ribeiro, trusting his wins over better competition and his reach advantage (81 vs 75.5 inches). He notes Ribeiro's straight punches could counter Zhang's hooks. He worries about Zhang's ground game but trusts Ribeiro to get a KO. He also mentions Zhang's frustrating path to the UFC and Ribeiro's natural momentum.

"I am gonna go Brendson Ribeiro over Zhang Mingyang... I trust a western can over an Eastern can."
Ozzy Diaz - Fight History
LOSS vs Ateba Gautier
KO R2 1:10 · UFC 328 · May 09, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ateba Gautier 1 23 of 82 28% 27 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ozzy Diaz 0 6 of 20 30% 8 of 22 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ateba Gautier 0 12 of 55 21% 16 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ozzy Diaz 0 4 of 12 33% 6 of 14 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:03
2 Ateba Gautier 1 11 of 27 40% 11 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ozzy Diaz 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ateba Gautier 23 of 82 28% 15 of 69 6 of 11 2 of 2 20 of 79 1 of 1 2 of 2
Ozzy Diaz 6 of 20 30% 5 of 18 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ateba Gautier 12 of 55 21% 8 of 49 2 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 54 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ozzy Diaz 4 of 12 33% 4 of 11 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ateba Gautier 11 of 27 40% 7 of 20 4 of 7 0 of 0 9 of 25 0 of 0 2 of 2
Ozzy Diaz 2 of 8 25% 1 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Ateba Gautier

Angelo picks Ateba Gautier as the easiest pick on the card. He notes Gautier's nasty striking, speed, power, and early finishes. He says Ozzy Diaz can be knocked out and Gautier knocks people out. He mentions Gautier's cardio looked good in his last decision win. He acknowledges the odds are unaffordable at minus 1000.

Angelo says Gautier is minus 1000, so not affordable, but the pick is easy.
"Ata knocks people out. Ata knocks out Azie. That 1 plus 1 equals 2. It's that simple."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ateba Gautier

Angelo is very confident in Ateba Gautier, describing him as hitting like a freight train and being fast. He notes that Ozzy Diaz has been knocked out before and that Gautier carries his power late. He expects Gautier to knock him out.

"Ataba's going to knock him out."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ateba Gautier

Big Brady confidently picks Ateba Gautier, expecting him to regain hype after a lackluster win. He notes Ozzy Diaz will come forward and likely walk into a big shot. Brady predicts a first-round knockout and also likes the Underdog prop for fight time under 7.5 minutes.

Underdog: fight time under 7.5 minutes
"I like a Tevita Gotti here. I like him to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ateba Gautier

Cody picks Gautier, citing his power and Diaz's poor striking defense. He notes Gautier's improvements and Diaz's tendency to get knocked out. Cody expects Gautier to win by first-round knockout.

Gautier by first-round knockout
"I got goatee to win by first round knockout and under one and a half Paul Shaughnessy."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Ateba Gautier

Connor agrees that Gautier is being well-managed and that this fight is a showcase. He highlights that Diaz is a 'normal guy living his dream' who lacks the athleticism to compete with Gautier. Connor notes that Diaz's losses come from being 'absolutely fucked up as fast as possible' and expects Gautier to crush him.

Gautier opened at -1000, now -1800; Diaz opened at +675, now +900.
"Gautier will crush him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Ateba Gautier

Daniel picks Gautier, noting that despite criticism for a recent decision win, Gautier is a young prospect who gained valuable octagon time. He expects Gautier to dominate Diaz, possibly by first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"I also got by first round knockout, too."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)

The host does not bet this fight. He notes Gautier is a huge favorite (1.09) and unplayable, while Diaz is weak on the ground. He considers the over 1.5 rounds at 3.50 tempting but decides to protect his money.

No bet. Mentions over 1.5 rounds at 3.50 as tempting but passes.
"I wouldn't touch Aussie Diaz here, but obviously Gautier's odds are unplayable... I'll probably give this a miss."
FI
FightingPost AI Expert Lock picked May 9, 2026 (fight day)
Ateba Gautier

Predicted method: KO/TKO Round 1. Gautier is undefeated with four first-round finishes, showcasing devastating KO power and a 100% takedown accuracy. Diaz has only one win and was knocked out in his UFC debut, absorbing 7.23 strikes per minute. Gautier's reach advantage (81" vs 79") and switch stance will create problems for Diaz, who has no takedown attempts in his career. This is a massive mismatch; Gautier will likely land a clean shot early and finish the fight within the first round.

Gautier by KO/TKO -340
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ateba Gautier

Jacob picks Ateba Gautier by first-round KO, calling it the 'hammer of the week'. He notes that Gautier has power early and that Ozzy Diaz has been knocked out before. He advises against playing under 1.5 rounds at minus odds.

first round KO
"I am hammering AIA GDA first round KO."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Ateba Gautier

Lucrative James picks Ateba Gautier to win by knockout in round one. He believes Gautier's elite striking setups and power will be too much for Ozzy Diaz, who has been finished early in fights before. He notes that Diaz's pressure style could lead him into Gautier's strikes, and that Gautier carries power into later rounds. He acknowledges Diaz's cardio but thinks Gautier's power is decisive.

"I got a TB Goautier to win this fight via knockout in round one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 5, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Ateba Gautier

The host picks Gautier by first-round knockout, emphasizing his power and youth. He notes that Diaz is 35 and lacks the power to hurt Gautier, while Gautier's power is significant. He expects Gautier to run through Diaz quickly, as Diaz cannot absorb the same shots that Pulv did.

Round 1 knockout
"I'm going to go round one knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ateba Gautier

Paul picks Gautier, citing his power and Diaz's vulnerability. He notes Gautier's athleticism and expects a quick finish. However, Paul is cautious about the value due to the short odds.

Gautier by knockout in round one
"Tiba Goce is minus 1,800 now. His knockout prop is approaching minus 500. Him to win in round one is minus 200."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Ateba Gautier

The MMA Guru picks Ateba Gautier emphatically, calling it a destruction. He notes Gautier is a -1100 favorite and predicts a first-round KO. He believes Gautier is being built as a prospect and that Ozzy Diaz is outmatched, having lost to Joe Pyfer and Mingyang Zhang. He expects Gautier to finish Diaz in 60-120 seconds.

first round KO, minus 1,100
"He's going to KO Aussie Diaz in the first round. There, I said it."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Ateba Gautier

Zane sees this as a showcase for Gautier, who is being carefully managed. He notes that Ozzy Diaz is a tough, hard-nosed fighter but lacks the athleticism and dynamic offense to threaten Gautier. Zane believes Gautier's superior athleticism and technique will overwhelm Diaz, especially since Diaz tends to get crushed quickly when facing better athletes.

Gautier opened at -1000, now -1800; Diaz opened at +675, now +900. The odds reflect the matchup dynamic.
"showcase for Gautier, nothing wrong with this man getting the showcase at this point in his career."
CANCEL vs Ateba Gautier
UFC 320 · Oct 04, 2025
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Djorden Ribeiro dos Santos 0 131 of 345 37% 134 of 348 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:26
Ozzy Diaz 0 135 of 261 51% 136 of 262 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Djorden Ribeiro dos Santos 0 25 of 70 35% 25 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ozzy Diaz 0 20 of 36 55% 20 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Djorden Ribeiro dos Santos 0 49 of 135 36% 49 of 135 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Ozzy Diaz 0 51 of 97 52% 51 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Djorden Ribeiro dos Santos 0 57 of 140 40% 60 of 143 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
Ozzy Diaz 0 64 of 128 50% 65 of 129 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Djorden Ribeiro dos Santos 131 of 345 37% 115 of 323 8 of 14 8 of 8 130 of 342 0 of 1 1 of 2
Ozzy Diaz 135 of 261 51% 119 of 240 9 of 13 7 of 8 130 of 255 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Djorden Ribeiro dos Santos 25 of 70 35% 17 of 61 3 of 4 5 of 5 25 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ozzy Diaz 20 of 36 55% 16 of 30 0 of 1 4 of 5 20 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Djorden Ribeiro dos Santos 49 of 135 36% 45 of 128 2 of 5 2 of 2 49 of 135 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ozzy Diaz 51 of 97 52% 46 of 92 2 of 2 3 of 3 51 of 97 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Djorden Ribeiro dos Santos 57 of 140 40% 53 of 134 3 of 5 1 of 1 56 of 137 0 of 1 1 of 2
Ozzy Diaz 64 of 128 50% 57 of 118 7 of 10 0 of 0 59 of 122 5 of 6 0 of 0
LOSS vs Zhang Mingyang
TKO (elbow and punches) R1 2:25 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · Nov 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zhang Mingyang 1 17 of 34 50% 19 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Ozzy Diaz 0 9 of 12 75% 9 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zhang Mingyang 1 17 of 34 50% 19 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Ozzy Diaz 0 9 of 12 75% 9 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zhang Mingyang 17 of 34 50% 9 of 24 2 of 4 6 of 6 15 of 26 0 of 0 2 of 8
Ozzy Diaz 9 of 12 75% 4 of 7 5 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zhang Mingyang 17 of 34 50% 9 of 24 2 of 4 6 of 6 15 of 26 0 of 0 2 of 8
Ozzy Diaz 9 of 12 75% 4 of 7 5 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mingyang Zhang vs. Osman Diaz

Round 1
The main card has begun, and all the Road to UFC fights are behind us. It’s time for some action. Light heavyweight finishers that sport matching 100% stoppage rates come to blows, and referee Kevin Sataki better fasten his safety belt. Zhang (17-6, 1-0 UFC) has the crowd behind him and a ton of momentum with 10 straight knockouts at his back. LFA vet Diaz (9-2, 0-0 UFC) will certainly not shy away from a brawl, and it could get wild in a hurry. The two clap their hands together, and it is Zhang who moves directly to the center of the cage. The fans are energized and chanting support for “Mountain Tiger,” who leads the dance with a push kick and then two calf kicks. Diaz leaps forward with a left hand that is blocked, and he ducks down and nearly gets kneed. Zhang splits the guard with a leaping left hand, and Diaz lunges at him back with a jab. Diaz’ jab is countered by a few leg kicks, and Zhang reaches him with a left hand up top. Diaz scores a right hand to make the Chinese fighter smile, and Zhang races after him loaded for bear. Diaz backs him off with an overhand right, and he slips away from a body jab but cannot get out of the way of a one-two. Diaz plunks his foe with a right hand around the guard, and Zhang smiles and resets.
Zhang hammers the front leg, and he nails Diaz with a short but devastating elbow that puts Diaz down. Barely still with it, Diaz turns to his knees and turtles up, and the man from China rushes after him to pummel him. About a dozen swarming punches get through from Zhang before Sataki has seen enough
, and Zhang’s 100% finish rate—all in the first round—stays intact by crushing the LFA vet. The crowd goes wild.

The Official Result
Mingyang Zhang def. Osman Diaz R1 2:25 via TKO (Elbow and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Angelo picks Zhang Mingyang, citing his superior grappling and power. He notes Ozzy Diaz is chinny and skinny, and expects Zhang to finish inside the distance. He suggests looking for extra juice on Zhang inside the distance.

Zhang inside the distance; fight won't go to distance
"Jiang is going to be the pick here you're probably safe to try to find a little extra juice like Jiang inside the distance"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Big Brady picks Zhang Mingyang to win by first-round knockout. He thinks the odds are off but notes Ozzy Diaz is very hitable and has a questionable chin, often getting beaten up before mounting a comeback. Zhang has tremendous power and is likely to land early. Brady expects a violent first-round finish, as Zhang has never won a fight that went past the first round.

Zhang Mingyang wins by KO in round 1
"I think the most likely scenario is a jang mingyong first round knockout and that's what I'll go with"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ozzy Diaz

Cody picks Diaz as a live underdog, arguing that Zhang's record is built on weak competition and he has been knocked out or submitted in most losses. Diaz has fought better competition, trains at Kings MMA, and has power and a ground game. He expects a banger where Diaz's experience and durability give him the edge, possibly by knockout.

"I would take aie Diaz yeah I can't really disagree with very much there it just seems it's like an absolute car crash"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Connor picks Zhang but hesitantly, noting that Diaz's pressure and composure could take Zhang into the second round, where Zhang historically loses. He acknowledges that King's MMA fighters often overperform and Diaz could survive the early storm. However, Connor thinks Zhang's power and brawling are a good answer for Diaz's style, and he's not ready to fade Zhang yet.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I think he's a very reasonable pick as well. But you know how loathe we are to trust first-round knockout machines."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Daniel Vreeland picks Zhang Mingyang, a Chinese knockout artist on a 10-fight win streak. He notes Diaz's tendency to get beaten up early before opponents gas, but believes Zhang will not gas out and will finish him. Vreeland highlights Zhang's devastating ground and pound and chin-finding ability, expecting a knockout in Macau.

by KO
"I'm going Ming yangang Jang to come out here and get a devastating knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ozzy Diaz

Paul agrees, noting that Zhang's wins are over nobodies and his losses are by finish. Diaz has trained with high-level partners and has power in his hands. He thinks the plus money is worth a shot in a volatile matchup where both have knockout power, but Diaz's superior competition gives him the edge.

"give me the guy who trains it with a good gym in California get good looks I mean it comes down to Who's Who skull can take you know who can who who skull can take a concussive blow"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

The MMA Guru picks Zhang Mingyang over Ozzy Diaz, citing Zhang's power and finishing instincts. He notes Zhang knocked out Branson Ribero in his debut and knocked out Tokotos on Road to UFC. He views Diaz as a 'skinny fat' athlete who got smoked by Joe Pyfer and has a questionable win over Bavon Lewis. He predicts a first-round TKO for Zhang.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with mingyang Jang over Aussie Diaz"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Zane picks Zhang Mingyang, citing his brawling power and first-round finishing ability. He notes that Diaz is a functional pressure fighter but lacks elite athleticism, and Zhang's power could put him away early. Zane acknowledges that Zhang is a first-round knockout machine and usually loses if he goes past the first, but Diaz's style plays into Zhang's strengths.

Diaz opened +253, now +273; Zhang opened -301, now -329. Zane says 'these odds should not be getting wider' and 'Zhong is not that guy to have wide odds.'
"I'm going to take Zhang Mingyang just to land the kind of shots on Diaz walking in that have put Diaz to sleep before."
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Angelo picks Zhang Mingyang, citing his superior grappling and power. He notes Ozzy Diaz is chinny and skinny, and expects Zhang to finish inside the distance. He suggests looking for extra juice on Zhang inside the distance.

Zhang inside the distance; fight won't go to distance
"Jiang is going to be the pick here you're probably safe to try to find a little extra juice like Jiang inside the distance"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Big Brady picks Zhang Mingyang to win by first-round knockout. He thinks the odds are off but notes Ozzy Diaz is very hitable and has a questionable chin, often getting beaten up before mounting a comeback. Zhang has tremendous power and is likely to land early. Brady expects a violent first-round finish, as Zhang has never won a fight that went past the first round.

Zhang Mingyang wins by KO in round 1
"I think the most likely scenario is a jang mingyong first round knockout and that's what I'll go with"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ozzy Diaz

Cody picks Diaz as a live underdog, arguing that Zhang's record is built on weak competition and he has been knocked out or submitted in most losses. Diaz has fought better competition, trains at Kings MMA, and has power and a ground game. He expects a banger where Diaz's experience and durability give him the edge, possibly by knockout.

"I would take aie Diaz yeah I can't really disagree with very much there it just seems it's like an absolute car crash"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Connor picks Zhang but hesitantly, noting that Diaz's pressure and composure could take Zhang into the second round, where Zhang historically loses. He acknowledges that King's MMA fighters often overperform and Diaz could survive the early storm. However, Connor thinks Zhang's power and brawling are a good answer for Diaz's style, and he's not ready to fade Zhang yet.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I think he's a very reasonable pick as well. But you know how loathe we are to trust first-round knockout machines."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Daniel Vreeland picks Zhang Mingyang, a Chinese knockout artist on a 10-fight win streak. He notes Diaz's tendency to get beaten up early before opponents gas, but believes Zhang will not gas out and will finish him. Vreeland highlights Zhang's devastating ground and pound and chin-finding ability, expecting a knockout in Macau.

by KO
"I'm going Ming yangang Jang to come out here and get a devastating knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ozzy Diaz

Paul agrees, noting that Zhang's wins are over nobodies and his losses are by finish. Diaz has trained with high-level partners and has power in his hands. He thinks the plus money is worth a shot in a volatile matchup where both have knockout power, but Diaz's superior competition gives him the edge.

"give me the guy who trains it with a good gym in California get good looks I mean it comes down to Who's Who skull can take you know who can who who skull can take a concussive blow"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

The MMA Guru picks Zhang Mingyang over Ozzy Diaz, citing Zhang's power and finishing instincts. He notes Zhang knocked out Branson Ribero in his debut and knocked out Tokotos on Road to UFC. He views Diaz as a 'skinny fat' athlete who got smoked by Joe Pyfer and has a questionable win over Bavon Lewis. He predicts a first-round TKO for Zhang.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with mingyang Jang over Aussie Diaz"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Zane picks Zhang Mingyang, citing his brawling power and first-round finishing ability. He notes that Diaz is a functional pressure fighter but lacks elite athleticism, and Zhang's power could put him away early. Zane acknowledges that Zhang is a first-round knockout machine and usually loses if he goes past the first, but Diaz's style plays into Zhang's strengths.

Diaz opened +253, now +273; Zhang opened -301, now -329. Zane says 'these odds should not be getting wider' and 'Zhong is not that guy to have wide odds.'
"I'm going to take Zhang Mingyang just to land the kind of shots on Diaz walking in that have put Diaz to sleep before."