Career Averages - Lone'er Kavanagh
Career Averages - Jose Ochoa
Lone'er Kavanagh
Jose Ochoa
Lone'er Kavanagh - Fight History
AJ believes Lone'er Kavanagh will knock out Brandon Royval, calling it a statement performance. He likes Kavanagh KO at +240 and thinks it could happen early, with round one at +650. He dismisses Royval's chances, though notes a Royval KO is possible at +400.
AJ picks Lone'er Kavanagh, calling him his lock of the week. He believes Kavanagh gets an early KO, noting his KO on Contender Series was crazy. AJ acknowledges Royval's underdog potential but is confident in Kavanagh.
AJ picks Lone'er Kavanagh to win, praising his high-level Muay Thai, speed, and technical striking. He believes Kavanagh's educated pressure and combinations will outclass Royval, who is on a two-fight losing streak and coming off a knockout loss. He sees Kavanagh winning by decision or knockout, and notes Royval's best chance is a wild strike.
AJ mentions Royval's best days may be behind him and that Kavanagh could knock him out, but does not make a definitive pick. He suggests he'd rather believe in Kavanagh straight.
AJ picks Kavanagh to outclass Royval, emphasizing Kavanagh's technical striking, speed, and high fight IQ. He believes Kavanagh's clean combinations and body work will overwhelm Royval's chaotic style, and that Royval's recent KO loss raises durability concerns. AJ sees Kavanagh winning by decision or late stoppage.
AJ is confident in Lone'er Kavanagh, calling him a blue-chip prospect with technical striking and knockout power. He believes Kavanagh will knock out Brandon Royval, who may be past his prime after a bad loss. He notes Kavanagh's improved cardio and sees him as a showcase fighter.
Angelo picks Lone'er Kavanagh because he is a fast, clean, technical striker with good cardio, as shown in his five-round win over Brandon Moreno. He believes Kavanagh's speed and power will be too much for Royval, who can be wild and has been knocked out before. He notes that Royval has two hours of octagon time and is dangerous, but Kavanagh should win.
Angelo believes Kavanagh's speed and footwork will be the difference. He thinks Royval is less technical and will struggle to swarm Kavanagh. He notes Kavanagh's cardio concerns but points out he fought 25 minutes against Moreno. He expects Kavanagh to win.
Big Brady picks the fight to end by knockout, taking it at +195 for 1.25 units. He believes Kavanagh will have multiple opportunities to knock out Royval due to Royval's poor striking defense (43%), questionable chin from recent concussions, and willingness to eat shots. He notes Royval's chaotic style creates openings, and Kavanagh's speed and power should connect. He also mentions Royval's only loss by knockout and the possibility of Royval hurting Kavanagh, but leans heavily on Kavanagh's finishing ability.
Big Brady leans towards Kavanagh, citing Royval's recent injuries, concussion issues, and hittability. He thinks the fight will take place standing and Kavanagh's striking is fast and powerful. However, he is concerned about Kavanagh's fluke KO loss to Charles Johnson. He might look at Kavanagh by KO prop.
Big Brady picks Lone'er Kavanagh to win by second-round knockout. He praises Kavanagh's improvement and power, noting his impressive performance against Charles Johnson and Brandon Moreno. He criticizes Royval's poor striking defense and chin issues, believing Kavanagh will land multiple big shots. He thinks Royval's grappling won't be a factor.
Cody picks Kavanagh but is hesitant, citing Royval's inconsistency and durability concerns. He notes Kavanagh's power and youth, and the impressive win over Moreno at altitude. However, he acknowledges Royval's proven level and that Kavanagh has looked inconsistent.
Daniel Levi confidently picks Lone'er Kavanagh, citing Brandon Royval's recent concussion issues, beatdown by Josh Van, and knockout loss to Minnell Cap. He believes Kavanagh is catching Royval at the right time and has the skills to win by decision or knockout. Levi notes that Kavanagh's point-fighting style and Royval's tendency to engage could lead to a dominant performance.
Jacob picks Lone'er Kavanagh, noting that he was impressed by his win over Moreno and that he looked dialed in. He believes Kavanagh's power and speed could trouble Royval, who has been hurt before. He warns that Royval is a wild card and could surprise, but thinks Kavanagh should win if he doesn't try to make a statement and stays patient.
Lucrative James picks Lone'er Kavanagh via KO, praising his elite striking, movement, and counter-punching. He acknowledges Kavanagh's chin issues and potential cardio fade but believes Royval is too hittable and lacks the wrestling to force a grappling war. He warns that if Kavanagh wrestles, Royval's jiu-jitsu could be dangerous, but expects Kavanagh to finish on the feet.
The host believes Kavanagh is ready for this level of competition, as shown in his previous win over Brandon Moreno. He expects Kavanagh to use his speed, calf kicks, and power to touch up Royval and win by knockout.
The host picks Kavanagh by knockout, believing his speed and precision will find Royval's chin. He notes Royval's pace could be a problem and would prefer Kavanagh at a better price than -220, but likes the under 2.5 rounds or fight doesn't go to decision.
Paul picks Kavanagh by KO, believing his power and youth will be decisive. He notes Royval's recent knockout loss and durability questions. He is less interested in a decision win and prefers the KO prop at +240.
The MMA Guru picks Lone'er Kavanagh to win by KO in the first round. He believes Kavanagh's calf kicks and speed will be too much for Brandon Royval, who is coming off a KO loss. He notes that Royval throws with his chin up and is vulnerable to hooks over the top. He predicts Kavanagh will target the body and legs early, then land a hook upstairs.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Moreno | 0 | 79 of 168 | 47% | 134 of 229 | 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 7:20 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 97 of 205 | 47% | 136 of 245 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 19 of 40 | 47% | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 18 of 45 | 40% | 18 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 24 of 54 | 44% | 24 of 54 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 42 of 83 | 50% | 42 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 16 of 40 | 40% | 31 of 56 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 17 of 44 | 38% | 20 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 9 of 15 | 60% | 31 of 42 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:08 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 29 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 29 of 37 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:51 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 27 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Moreno | 79 of 168 | 47% | 51 of 133 | 15 of 21 | 13 of 14 | 69 of 154 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 97 of 205 | 47% | 60 of 160 | 18 of 24 | 19 of 21 | 92 of 198 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Moreno | 19 of 40 | 47% | 14 of 34 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 18 of 45 | 40% | 10 of 33 | 3 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 18 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brandon Moreno | 24 of 54 | 44% | 13 of 40 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 42 of 83 | 50% | 30 of 70 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 7 | 39 of 78 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Brandon Moreno | 16 of 40 | 40% | 13 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 17 of 44 | 38% | 11 of 37 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 17 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Brandon Moreno | 9 of 15 | 60% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 8 of 14 | 57% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Brandon Moreno | 11 of 19 | 57% | 6 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 12 of 19 | 63% | 5 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Moreno (-230); Kavanagh (+190)
Round 1
Remember, fight fans, this was not the initially intended main event for UFC Mexico. Rather than Moreno (23-9-2, 11-6-2 UFC) taking on Asu Almabayev—acceptable under today’s standards for a main event—he draws Kavanagh (9-1, 2-1 UFC), who just lost his last fight by knockout. Taking the opportunity few else would or could, the Brit falls upward into a pivotal matchup and tries as hard as he can to not drop two in a row. The final official for the evening is referee Herb Dean, who issues final instructions and elicits a fist bump from the two. It’s on with the flyweight show.
Kavanagh moves to the middle of the cage, allowing Moreno to swat at him with range-finding jabs and a looping right hook. Kavanagh takes a funny step when getting kicked, and he gathers himself quickly. Moreno keeps peppering jabs, and he loads up on a left hook. Kavanagh dances back, and he aims a front kick to the chest. Moreno fakes a level change to go upstairs, and he swings wildly and reaches his target at the end of a left. Kavanagh clips Moreno coming in with a right hand that reddens up the former champ’s eye. Kavanagh chops at the front leg, and Moreno’s lead leg is welted and turning red quickly. Kavanagh splits the guard with a right hand down the pipe, and Moreno triples up on a jab that leads to an overhand right.
Kavanagh puts a front kick to the chest and works on the inside of his foe’s front leg, and he speedily raises up a high kick that slaps “The Assassin Baby” in the face. Moreno reaches out with a right that knocks Kavanagh’s hair back, and he rushes in to score a few more. Kavanagh backs him off with a short flurry, spins with a back kick and falls over when comboing it into a high kick. Moreno lets him stand back up because he is having fun striking, and he connects at the end of his punches. Kavanagh leans back but not far enough, so Moreno is able to contact him. Kavanagh’s right hook marks up Moreno’s left eye, who pays it no mind and kicks back at his adversary. Kavanagh pitter patters several punches off the guard, and Moreno’s counter is sharp and accurate. Kavanagh stings Moreno with a left, and Moreno looks around for a moment to gather his thoughts. The first round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kavanagh
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Kavanagh
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kavanagh
Round 2
A clap of hands opens the round, one in which Kavanagh starts with a front kick aimed at the face. Moreno replies with a one-two down Broadway, and he has his leg entangled in a kick exchange and tumbles to the mat. Kavanagh does not want to go to the ground with him, so he measures his foe and readies his jab. Kavanagh keeps beating on the front leg, inspiring Moreno to kick him back on the same spot. Moreno goes down for a single, and Kavanagh pushes him away and rattles off punches that bound into the guard. Kavanagh pecks away as Moreno looks for an opening to attack, and he preemptively counters Moreno with a left that stuns the former champ for a second. Kavanagh stabs the body with a kick with his toes pointed straight out at the target, and he slides back from additional offense aimed his way. Moreno appears to be irritated by the kicks beating up his front leg, and he lumbers forward looping right hands at his foe.
Moreno thumps the front leg with a kick and follows Kavanagh around, who is jabbing him square in the nose repeatedly. Moreno loads up with a left hand and is wide open for the counter, and Kavanagh makes sure to make him pay with a monstrous combination that busts the former champion up repeatedly and makes him stumble courtesy of a flush head kick. Moreno backs off to shake out the cobwebs, so Kavanagh slaps kick after kick on the Mexican’s wounded limb. Kavanagh has also busted Moreno’s nose open in the process, with blood leaking out of both nostrils. The Brit checks a kick and fires off a straight one-two followed by a piercing teep kick. Moreno quadruples his jab, snapping the head back each time, and he cracks Kavanagh with a leaping left hand. Moreno follows with a heavy right, getting Kavanagh’s attention and slowing his attack for a time. The horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kavanagh
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Kavanagh
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kavanagh
Round 3
Gloves are touched as the athletes reach Round 3, and Moreno flashes his jab several times and lashes out with his right. Kavanagh hammers his front leg, one that is badly welted at this point, and paws out with jabs. He hops away from the looping right hand of “The Assassin Baby” and jams the body with a front kick, keeping Moreno at bay for the time being. Moreno reaches out with a big right hand, and he follows with a left and then another to boot. Moreno turns it on with a flurry that Kavanagh largely evades, and Kavanagh replies with a few speedy punches up high. Kavanagh drives home a one-two on the jaw, and he is again reached with the right hand from the ex-champ. Moreno flicks out his jab a few times and paws away the ones aimed at him, and he puts a little more steam behind a left hand that misses but leads to a takedown shot.
The Mexican fighter considers a single, and he transitions to wrap his arms around his opponent’s waist so that he can hoist him to the floor. Kavanagh keeps his balance, so Moreno starts jackhammering him on the thigh in the same spot time and again. Moreno breaks off and partially lands a left on the break, and Kavanagh slips when pitching a front kick. Moreno scores a one-two and shells up to defend a high kick. Moreno connects with two punches and lets a bunch bang into his gloves, rushing his opponent but taking a hard kick on the way in. Moreno targets the body with the ball of his foot, and he swats out a left and leans back on the expected counter. Moreno pursues a single, backing Kavanagh to the wall but not grounding him. Moreno knees the thigh when leaning on his foe, spamming them until time runs out in the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Round 4
Having reached the championship rounds, the two share a high-five. Moreno, who is well-schooled and conditioned for five rounds, pushes the pace right out of the gate. He punches his way into a takedown shot, grabbing hold of Kavanagh’s left leg for his single attempt. Kavanagh defends it with his back to the fence, but this leads to Moreno pressing him against the cage as if he were trying to squeeze him through the chain links like a Play-Do mold. Moreno puts some mustard into his repeated knees to the inner thigh, hitting one of two spots time and time again with Kavanagh unable to get out. The damage might not be significant, but he nullifies the unranked fighter in this position. Kavanagh starts to smack Moreno with short, ineffective right hands, and Moreno doggedly pursues the takedown. Dean asks for them to work, so Kavanagh tries to take things into his own hands and step out of it. Moreno follows all the while, exerting heavy pressure while constantly threatening with a trip or other level change.
Dean wants them to keep working, and once more it is up to Kavanagh to do something, so he does. Kavanagh escapes out the side, and he slams a kick on the calf. A second from the Brit makes Moreno limp, his poker face gone as he tries to put weight on his damaged limb. Moreno pushes out his jabs, and he swings recklessly with two punches as Kavanagh slips away. Kavanagh works the body with a kick, and he tries a low kick but has his leg caught when Moreno tries to take the fight down. Moreno settles for more cage squeezing, replete with knee strikes to the thigh. Dean calls multiple times for more activity, so Moreno frames off and jacks Kavanagh in the jaw with a left hand. Kavanagh spins with a wheel kick, bouncing it into the guard, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Round 5
It could be all tied up in the final round, and the two hug it out before finishing their business. At best, Moreno is 2-2, but Kavanagh could easily be up three rounds to one. Kavanagh leads off with a low kick, and he evades the one-two aimed at his face but is in the crosshairs of the takedown attempt. Moreno leans as heavily as he can once he plants Kavanagh’s back on the fence, comfortably engaging in a wall-and-stall style that would not thrill most viewers. The knees to the thigh may be effective and are scoring, but the damage is less-than-stellar. Dean keeps telling Moreno he will break them up if he does not do more, and Moreno eats up all the time he can in this position. Dean splits them up, and Moreno is leaking and practically sprays blood out of his mouth when he exhales. Kavanagh smacks the front leg and then goes up high with his same leg, and Moreno stays right in front of him. Moreno ducks a punch and clashes heads with his foe, avoid a flying knee so he can engage in more clinchery.
Moreno is more than happy to work on the thigh with his knees and little else, until he changes his strategy to lace his legs between his foe’s to trip him up. The younger man keeps his balance and holds on, defending a standing back take by putting his back against the wall again. Kavanagh lashes out with an elbow to force a break, and he drills Moreno in the gut with a solid kick. Moreno gets off a pair of jabs and takes another front kick, and Kavanagh sits down on several punches while Moreno is in front of him. Moreno connects with a flush left hand and forces the tie-up, and Dean wastes no time asking for Moreno to fight more. Moreno brings up a knee to the chest this time, when otherwise pressuring Kavanagh with all his might. Kavanagh tries for a trip, but Moreno breaks off. Kavanagh swings one final spinning back kick to the body, and the grueling five-rounder finally comes to an end. Scores could be all over the map here, but more than anything, it proves that Kavanagh can hang among the top echelon of his division after all.
When the cards were read, the 49-46 card gave up who got the nod, because there would be no reasonable explanation for Moreno to win four rounds. The crowd is understandably silent, having watched their hometown hero lose a bloody upset to a foreign up-and-comer on relatively short notice. The victor is nothing but gracious, remembering his fallen father while thanking his team and family first. He suggests that life is made up of a few legendary moments, and that he just “beat a legend.” Kavanagh offers a respectful callout to anyone in the division, and commentator Michael Bisping is trying to hide the smile on his face from ear to ear. Next week, there is a belt* on the line at UFC 326, and we will be there for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kavanagh (48-47 Kavanagh)
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Moreno (48-47 Moreno)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kavanagh (48-47 Kavanagh)
The Official Result
Lone’er Kavanagh def. Brandon Moreno via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
Angelo hesitantly picks Brandon Moreno, acknowledging that Lone'er Kavanagh is fast and accurate and could give Moreno trouble early. He notes Moreno's five-round experience and toughness as key advantages, expecting him to outlast Kavanagh who may fade. He admits if it were a three-round fight with a full camp, he would pick Kavanagh.
Big Brady picks Brandon Moreno, citing his hometown advantage, experience as a former champion, and step down in competition. He notes Kavanagh looked good in the first round against Charles Johnson but faded and got knocked out. Brady believes Moreno's cardio, pressure, and minute-winning ability will lead to a decision win, possibly a late finish if Kavanagh slows down.
Cody points out Moreno's recent stylistic changes, lack of wrestling, and potential decline. He highlights Kavanagh's speed and power, and the danger of an early knockout. Despite these concerns, he picks Moreno due to the difficulty of betting against him, but strongly advises live betting or hedging.
Connor agrees with Zane that Moreno should win, but he is slightly less confident due to Moreno's recent inconsistent performances. He notes that Moreno sometimes makes weird mistakes and that Kavanagh is a dangerous counterpuncher with speed and accuracy. However, Connor ultimately believes Moreno's experience and ability to pressure will be too much for Kavanagh, especially given Kavanagh's stamina concerns.
Daniel picks Brandon Moreno to win, citing his well-rounded skills and fight IQ. He notes Moreno's takedown advantage against Royval's poor takedown defense, but acknowledges Royval's danger on the feet with unorthodox strikes. He expects Moreno to exploit takedown defense and control the fight on the ground, though he warns that Moreno has been dropped in recent fights.
The host is betting on Moreno despite his decline, because the circumstances heavily favor him. Moreno has experience fighting in Mexico City, excellent cardio, and has never been knocked out. Kavanagh is inexperienced (10 pro fights), a volume striker with no knockout power, and is fighting on short notice at high altitude. The host believes Kavanagh would need to finish Moreno or win a clear decision, both unlikely. He plans to parlay Moreno with Zellhuber.
James believes Kavanagh is one of the best flyweights despite his loss to Charles Johnson, citing his speed, footwork, and counter-striking. He questions Moreno's consistency and recent performance, noting Moreno's age and potential decline. James sees value in Kavanagh at +210 odds, predicting Moreno may not push the pace needed to exploit Kavanagh's cardio concerns.
The host picks Brandon Moreno inside the distance, expecting a round 4 or 5 finish. He notes Moreno's experience, cardio, and durability, and believes Kavanagh will fade in the later rounds due to altitude and short notice. He is surprised the line moved to -225 and considers it a great value. He predicts a late TKO or submission.
Paul acknowledges Moreno's experience and cardio advantage, especially at altitude. He notes Moreno's wrestling and submission game are superior, and expects Moreno to take over in later rounds. He is puzzled by the money coming in on Kavanagh and recommends Moreno as a parlay piece, but suggests live betting for better value.
The MMA Guru picks Brandon Moreno, noting that Lone'er Kavanagh has a cardio issue and gasses after about 7 minutes. He argues that Moreno is hard to finish early and that Kavanagh's only path to victory is a first-round TKO, which is unlikely at Mexico City altitude. He predicts a late-rounds TKO for Moreno, possibly in rounds 4 or 5.
Zane picks Moreno because Kavanagh is not ready for this level of competition, especially on short notice and at altitude. He notes that Kavanagh's gas tank was a problem against Charles Johnson, and Moreno's experience and ability to set a comfortable tempo will likely overwhelm him. Zane also mentions that Moreno has a reach advantage and is fighting at home, which should help him make better decisions.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Johnson | 1 | 44 of 81 | 54% | 52 of 89 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 59 of 120 | 49% | 60 of 121 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 0:59 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Johnson | 0 | 14 of 25 | 56% | 14 of 25 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 36 of 65 | 55% | 37 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Charles Johnson | 1 | 30 of 56 | 53% | 38 of 64 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 23 of 55 | 41% | 23 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 0:59 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Johnson | 44 of 81 | 54% | 18 of 49 | 6 of 10 | 20 of 22 | 37 of 71 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 4 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 59 of 120 | 49% | 32 of 83 | 21 of 26 | 6 of 11 | 53 of 111 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Johnson | 14 of 25 | 56% | 3 of 11 | 2 of 4 | 9 of 10 | 14 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 36 of 65 | 55% | 17 of 37 | 14 of 18 | 5 of 10 | 34 of 63 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Charles Johnson | 30 of 56 | 53% | 15 of 38 | 4 of 6 | 11 of 12 | 23 of 47 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 23 of 55 | 41% | 15 of 46 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 48 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Blue-chip flyweight Kavanagh will look to keep his professional record spotless against Johnson, who saw a four-fight win streak snapped at UFC Vegas 103 in March. The third man in the Octagon will be Jim Perdios. Johnson is southpaw, Kavanagh orthodox to start things off, but Johnson is fluid, switching briefly to match his foe. Kavanagh catches him mid-switch with a leg kick that nearly takes him off his feet. Johnson throws up a half-speed body kick to the open side, and Kavanagh comes back with a much harder one that hurts the taller man. Kavanagh with a stiff leg kick. Johnson is reeling from the speed and power of Kavanagh’s kicks. Kavanagh lands two more hard body kicks, and Johnson clinches and drives him to the fence. They disengage a moment later and trade kicks in open space. Johnson takes the front foot, marching forward, and Kavanagh meets him with a pair of hooks to the head. Johnson shakes them off and keeps coming forward, but Kavanagh is picking him apart with kicks to the legs and body, interspersed with punches upstairs. The horn sounds.
10-9 Kavanagh.
Round 2
They touch gloves to open Round 2 and Johnson is immediately on the offensive, coming forward with long kicks up the middle. Kavanagh gives ground, circles out and then plants his feet, meeting Johnson with a one-two. Johnson changes levels and shoots into a front headlock. Johnson remains calm and passes to side control, where Kavanagh wisely bails on the choke and scrambles to his feet. Johnson shoots again, and once again Kavanagh snares his neck. This time the guillotine choke looks tight, and Kavanagh falls to guard. Johnson pulls his head out and goes to stand, only to have Kavanagh toss him back to the canvas. They scramble back up and return to striking near the center of the cage. Kavanagh slips after a kick but pops right back up. Two minutes left in the round, and Johnson absorbs a right cross. Johnson surges forward, but Kavanagh slips laterally and tags him with a punch. Johnson enters the pocket and lands a level elbow, probably his best single strike of the fight so far. Johnson drives Kavanagh to the fence and unloads with a flurry of hooks to the body. Johnson breaks away and when Kavanagh steps into range,
Johnson eats a short left hand, then retaliates with a massive right that completely wrecks the Englishman, who never brought his guard back up after landing his own punch.
Kavanagh goes down in a heap, the follow-up blows a mere formality as Perdios dives in for the stop. “InnerG” has derailed yet another red-hot flyweight prospect in the UFC. Fantastic comeback finish.
The Official Result
Charles Johnson def. Lone'er Kavanagh R2 4:35 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Lone'er Kavanagh but is hesitant, noting that Charles Johnson is a friend of the show and a good fighter. He praises Kavanagh's speed, power, and ability to transition to wrestling instantly. He thinks the odds are too wide and that Johnson is not a 2-to-1 underdog. He says he'll be rooting for Johnson but thinks Kavanagh probably gets it done due to speed and volume.
Big Brady picks Lone'er Kavanagh to win a close decision, noting that Kavanagh is a real prospect with power and takedown ability. He criticizes Charles Johnson for consistently losing first rounds and being takedown-prone. He believes Kavanagh will win rounds one and two, while Johnson may take round three, leading to a decision for Kavanagh.
Connor picks Kavanagh largely on vibes, citing Kavanagh's ability to understand what wins rounds and his good footwork. He notes that Kavanagh is an impactful kicker and can neutralize opponents, and that Johnson may lose track of the fight in a slow-paced bout. However, he acknowledges the matchup is close and could go either way.
The host notes that Kavanagh is usually at super chalky odds but here at -180, it's a great entry point. He thinks Johnson may not have the power to get Kavanagh's respect, and while Johnson may have an advantage in output and volume, Kavanagh should mix martial arts well with power strikes, speed, and takedowns to win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Johnson to win by decision as an underdog (+170). He believes Johnson's experience and ability to survive and push the pace will be key. He notes that Kavanagh struggled in close fights against Jose Ochoa and Felipe dos Santos, and that Johnson is hard to outgrapple effectively. He expects Johnson to have a strong third round and win a close decision, though he acknowledges Kavanagh could land a knockout.
Zane picks Charles Johnson, reasoning that Kavanagh has fought raw prospects who make mistakes, while Johnson is a seasoned veteran who can capitalize on Kavanagh's tendency to give opponents chances. He notes that Johnson's craft and experience should be enough to edge out a close decision, though he admits it feels like a wrong pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 58 of 97 | 59% | 71 of 112 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 6:33 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 0 | 51 of 104 | 49% | 92 of 147 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 0 | 15 of 32 | 46% | 23 of 40 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 2 | Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 29 of 51 | 56% | 42 of 66 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:36 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 0 | 25 of 36 | 69% | 45 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 | |
| 3 | Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 18 of 23 | 78% | 18 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 0 | 11 of 36 | 30% | 24 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 58 of 97 | 59% | 37 of 71 | 11 of 15 | 10 of 11 | 29 of 56 | 3 of 6 | 26 of 35 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 51 of 104 | 49% | 28 of 67 | 9 of 21 | 14 of 16 | 28 of 77 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 23 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lone'er Kavanagh | 11 of 23 | 47% | 1 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 8 | 10 of 19 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 15 of 32 | 46% | 3 of 12 | 5 of 12 | 7 of 8 | 13 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Lone'er Kavanagh | 29 of 51 | 56% | 25 of 45 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 30 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 25 of 36 | 69% | 18 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 18 | |
| 3 | Lone'er Kavanagh | 18 of 23 | 78% | 11 of 14 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 11 of 36 | 30% | 7 of 28 | 1 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kavanagh (-305), dos Santos (+245)
Round 1
Dan Movahedi will oversee this flyweight clash. Dos Santos chips way at the lead leg. Kavanagh just avoids a kick up high. Dos Santos clips Kavanagh and then clinches with his foe. Movahedi warns dos Santos twice to pull his fingers out of the cage. They separate and return to distance. They trade low kicks. Dos Santos with a body kick. An inside low kick lands for Kavanagh. They clinch in the center of the cage and dos Santos lands a knee. Dos Santos goes for a spinning elbow on the break, and they engage again. Kavanagh is busted open from the strike. They trade low kicks in the center of the cage. Dos Santos charges in and presses Kavanagh into the fence. Kavanagh is bleeding more profusely as they battle in the clinch. Neither man gains an advantage and they end the frame at range.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 dos Santos
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 dos Santos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 dos Santos
Round 2
Dos Santos goes low with two leg kicks and then fires a head kick that just misses. Kavanagh buckles the Brazilian with a low kick. A jab lands for dos Santos before they clinch. The Brazilian lands a few knees in close. Kavanagh circles off and they have a wild exchange. Kavanagh lands some heavy shots near the fence, forcing dos Santos to shoot. Kavanagh ends up on top and he drops some hammerfists from above. dos Santos is active with his guard, but he’s eating more ground-and-pound for his efforts. Kavanagh maintains top position, but dos Santos is active with punches, hammerfists and elbows from his back. Kavanagh answers with an elbow from above. Kavanagh takes the back as dos Santos stands, and he slams the Brazilian to the mat. Kavanagh is in his opponent’s half guard with 1:30 to go. Kavanagh drops a heavy elbow. Dos Santos is throwing elbows from his back as well. Dos Santos throws a few hammerfists and Kavanagh responds with another punishing elbow from above. Both men are covered in blood now. Dos Santos scrambles up, but Kavanagh is able to escape a guillotine and assume top position. The Brit unleashes some more ground-and-pound before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kavanagh
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kavanagh
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kavanagh
Round 3
Kavanagh opens with a kick to the body. A solid low kick lands for the London native. More body kicks from Kavanagh, and then he catches dos Snatos with a head kick. Dos Santos pressures with punches but Kavanagh evades the majority of them. Kavanagh counters a head kick with a crisp right. Kavanagh explodes for a takedown and plants dos Santos on his back with a little less than three minutes to go in the fight. Dos Santos remains active with his guard, but he’s warned about throwing upkicks, as Kavanagh is grounded. Kavanagh drops an elbow after the warning. Dos Santos scrambles up, but Kavanagh drives him into the fence, lifts him and puts him right back down on the mat. The Brazilian scoots to a seated position against the fence. Dos Santos throws some downward elbows at Kavanagh’s spine, which draws another stern warning from Movahedi. Kavanagh lands a knee as dos Santos stands. Back at range now dos Santos is stalking. He just misses on a spinning back elbow. A spinning kick also misses the mark, and Kavanagh cracks the Brazilian a couple more times before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kavanagh (29-28 Kavanagh)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kavanagh (29-28 Kavanagh)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kavanagh (29-28 Kavanagh)
The Official Result
Lone’er Kavanagh def. Felipe dos Santos via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Lone'er Kavanagh, emphasizing his incredible speed and composure. He acknowledges that Kavanagh hasn't faced top competition and that Felipe's forward pressure will test him. He wants to see if Kavanagh can fight backwards and counter-strike. Ultimately, he trusts Kavanagh's speed and potential, though he admits we'll learn a lot about him in this fight.
Brady likes Kavanagh's clean striking and power, and notes dos Santos has poor takedown defense and striking defense. He thinks Kavanagh can mix in takedowns if needed. Despite dos Santos being tough, Brady predicts a decision win for Kavanagh.
Connor agrees with Zane, calling Kavanagh a natural genius for fighting. He notes Kavanagh is well-suited to deal with dos Santos, with more killer instinct than Malyk. Connor thinks Kavanagh's selective technique and flowy striking will be too much for dos Santos, who is brave but not as dynamic.
The host considers Kavanagh one of the hottest UK prospects and expects him to showcase his skills. Dos Santos might make it close early, but as Kavanagh's damage piles up, he will cause dos Santos to break, leading to a late finish or decision win.
The Guru picks Lone'er Kavanagh, believing he is crisper on the feet and has good grappling instincts. He notes that Kavanagh is compact and beats opponents to the punch, while dos Santos has been in many scraps and may be more damaged. He expects a TKO in the second or third round, as Kavanagh's pressure and body work will wear down dos Santos.
Zane is confident in Kavanagh, calling him a super prospect with fantastic eyes and lightning quick reactions. He notes Kavanagh is technical, flows from defense to offense, and uses spinning kicks well. Zane thinks dos Santos is a good test but not as refined as Charles Oliveira, and Kavanagh should find holes in his combinations.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 51 of 126 | 40% | 51 of 126 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 50 of 158 | 31% | 59 of 168 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 21 of 45 | 46% | 21 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 19 of 44 | 43% | 19 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 18 of 46 | 39% | 18 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 20 of 60 | 33% | 29 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 3 | Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 12 of 35 | 34% | 12 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 11 of 54 | 20% | 11 of 54 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 51 of 126 | 40% | 24 of 74 | 12 of 28 | 15 of 24 | 50 of 124 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jose Ochoa | 50 of 158 | 31% | 13 of 78 | 13 of 40 | 24 of 40 | 49 of 156 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lone'er Kavanagh | 21 of 45 | 46% | 6 of 21 | 4 of 10 | 11 of 14 | 21 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jose Ochoa | 19 of 44 | 43% | 3 of 19 | 2 of 6 | 14 of 19 | 19 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Lone'er Kavanagh | 18 of 46 | 39% | 9 of 28 | 7 of 11 | 2 of 7 | 17 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jose Ochoa | 20 of 60 | 33% | 7 of 29 | 6 of 20 | 7 of 11 | 19 of 58 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Lone'er Kavanagh | 12 of 35 | 34% | 9 of 25 | 1 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jose Ochoa | 11 of 54 | 20% | 3 of 30 | 5 of 14 | 3 of 10 | 11 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
A pair of unbeaten newcomers with seven wins apiece meet in hopes of keeping their spotless records intact. The prospects of Kavanagh (7-0, 0-0 UFC) are high, with many calling for him to get a call up to the big leagues after wiping out Davide Scarano with a spinning back kick in 2023. It took a bit longer than he expected, but he made it, and he meets Ochoa (7-0, 1 NC; 0-0 UFC). While the Brit has heard the final bell in the past, Ochoa has never even fought into the third round. Referee Mark Craig will have his hands full with these flyweights for as long as it goes. They share a sporting glove touch to get started, and Kavanagh strikes first with a low kick. Kavanagh parries the jabs Ochoa is setting up, ignoring a stomping kick to his knees so he can work his way in. Kavanagh has to hop back to block a head kick, and he presses forward with a push kick. Ochoa chops at the lead leg with a kick, and Kavanagh responds in kind. A head kick buzzes past Ochoa’s face in the blink of an eye, with the Peruvian looking at it with bemusement. Kavanagh chips at the front leg, and Ochoa does the same as they do not set up much else. Kavanagh nails the lead leg with a kick that makes Ochoa recoil it, and he dodges a counter right over the top when loosing a body kick. Kavanagh blocks a front kick and whiffs with a head kick, and he sees Ochoa come barreling towards him and blonks him on the head with a right hook. The Peruvian wears it well and lets fly a head kick that is blocked, with the two going tit-for-tat against one another. Ochoa connects with two leg kicks, and the crowd starts wooing as it is not entertained. Both fighters come up short on power strikes, with Kavanagh eventually reaching with a leg kick and then one to the ribs. Kavanagh closes in when Ochoa attempts a spinning back fist, and he chews up the inside and outside of Ochoa’s right leg with kicks. Ochoa goes wide with a haymaker, and Kavanagh slips the strikes and responds with a left hook that cuts Ochoa’s right eye. In a flurry of strikes, a Kavanagh kick does not find the right area and instead blasts Ochoa square in the family jewels. Ochoa walks off in pain, and Kavanagh knows what he did and apologizes. Craig calls time and tells Ochoa he has plenty of time to recover, and Ochoa is not having a good time right now. It takes over a minute for Ochoa to stand up, and he asks for a chance to wipe his bloodied eye that is cut on the lid. After 90 seconds, Ochoa is good to go, and they share a glove touch to restart. Kavanagh reintroduces himself with two more accurate leg kicks, and he allows Ochoa to kick him so he can plant a capoeira kick on his ribs. An Ochoa kick appears to go low, but Kavanagh waves it off and they trade front kicks. A clean Ochoa front kick drives Kavanagh back, and Kavanagh rushes at him swinging two hooks and a kick before the horn sounds. 10-9 Kavanagh.
Round 2
The fighters share a glove touch to get going in Round 2, with Kavanagh twirling about when not committing entirely to a leg kick. He instead aims one to the side, and he leans back when Ochoa’s feet fly past his face. Ochoa scores a Mortal Kombat-inspired sweep kick to the low leg, and Kavanagh no-sells it and responds with a head kick. Kavanagh chambers and fires a slapping leg kick, hoping to set up a high kick but Ochoa is wise to the latter. Ochoa keeps his hands dangerously low as he prods out with front kicks, and he sways back when Kavanagh kicks at him. Kavanagh scores a right hand, has a kick roll off his shoulder and prepares to fire off a counter. The right hand that comes from the Brit puts Ochoa on his seat, and Ochoa, grinning the whole time, climbs back to his feet. Ochoa attacks the front leg repeatedly, landing three or four until Kavanagh lets fly a booming body kick. Ochoa’s kicks keep his man at safe range until Kavanagh gets sick of waiting and lunges to blaze him with a right and then a huge left hook. Ochoa wants to engage, smiling all the while, and he absorbs a powerful left hand that makes him smile and bleed. Kavanagh’s poker face never changes as he unleashes kicks to the body and front leg, and Ochoa splits the distance and delivers a clean body shot. Ochoa chains and fires a few flashy strikes together that all miss, and he tries a capoeira kick that comes up short. Kavanagh stays composed and dings him with a left hook to draw more blood, and his leg kick keeps battering the front leg. Ochoa splits the guard with a front kick, and this makes Kavanagh bite down on his mouthpiece to engage. Ochoa appears to get the better of the exchange, hurting the former Cage Warriors fighter with a long series of punches. Ochoa changes the strikes to body shots, lowering Kavanagh to the floor until Kavanagh shoots desperately. The Peruvian jumps around to take the back, and he hunts for a rear-naked choke while on his foe’s back. Kavanagh leans against the fence to survive the submission, with the horn ending the round. 10-9 Ochoa.
Round 3
The fighters reach the final frame and clap hands, and it could be all tied up or Kavanagh could be ahead. No matter the score, the competitors get to business before long. Legs fly from both sides, with Ochoa picking and poking with kicks high and low, and his body kick draws a reaction out of his man. With Ochoa selling out for kicks, Kavanagh times a left hand that drops Ochoa. Kavanagh does not go wild for long, letting Ochoa have it but paying attention to when the jump knee inevitably comes at him. Ochoa gathers himself and beats on the body with kicks, and Kavanagh returns fire with two that leave mean looking welts on Ochoa’s waist. Kavanagh lunges with a left hook, and he nails the front leg with a kick. Ochoa digs a left to head and right to the body, and Kavanagh pays him back with a short but fierce combination. Ochoa tries to sweep the leg dramatically, and this time it is way short and the crowd boos him. The two crash together with offense, as Ochoa tries a head kick while too close. Kavanagh slips a huge punch to escape from harm, hand-fighting and letting loose with a head kick. Ochoa shrugs at him and belts him with a low kick. Ochoa chases Kavanagh down, walking into a jump knee as he spins with a back fist that bangs into the chest. Kavanagh strafes to the side, avoiding a hook kick and a head kick with active movement. Ochoa’s kicks miss again and again, resulting in Ochoa shrugging at him. Kavanagh wraps a head kick around the guard, and they both land with their fists. Ochoa steps in with a knee, and he gets countered with a left over the top and has a head kick graze his chin. Ochoa walks Kavanagh down without fear, kicking his way into a single-leg takedown attempt that fails. Kavanagh intercepts a kick to blast Ochoa in the face with a right hand, and he spins with a wheel kick that connects cleanly. The two fighters hug it out, and Kavanagh hits a back flip just because he can. 10-9 Kavanagh (29-28 Kavanagh).
The Official Result
Lone'er Kavanagh def. Jose Ochoa via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Lone'er Kavanagh, emphasizing his incredible speed and raw power. He believes Kavanagh's high-level training and speed will be the difference, as Ochoa will struggle to see shots coming. He notes both are finishers and suggests an under on round lines could be a play.
Big Brady picks Kavanagh to win by decision. He acknowledges the hype on Kavanagh from his contender series knockout but notes Jose Ochoa is dangerous with power. He believes Kavanagh has more ways to win with better tools on the feet and ground, and can mix in takedowns. He expects a back-and-forth war that goes the distance with Kavanagh getting his hand raised.
Cody picks Kavanagh confidently, calling him a top prospect with dynamic striking and grappling. He notes that Ochoa is a tough Peruvian brawler but lacks the technical skills to hang with Kavanagh. He expects Kavanagh to win by knockout, possibly early, and sees him as a top ticket play.
Daniel Vreeland praises both fighters as studs but gives the edge to Kavanagh due to being more seasoned and having fought higher-level competition. He notes that Ochoa is impressive and could be a top prospect soon, but Kavanagh's experience and maturity make him the pick. However, he mentions he would bet on Ochoa as an underdog due to the value.
Kavanagh has the hype but Ochoa has talent and potential. The line is too wide, but Kavanagh should land big shots and find a knockout. A small sprinkle on the underdog is suggested.
Paul agrees, noting Kavanagh's footwork and power are on another level. He acknowledges Ochoa's toughness but thinks Kavanagh's technique will be too much. He expects a dominant performance and is comfortable laying the chalk.
The MMA Guru is high on Lone'er Kavanagh, describing him as a savage with nasty combos and highlight-reel finishes. He notes Kavanagh has faced tougher competition, with his last three opponents having a combined record of 16-0. He believes Kavanagh's power at flyweight and good takedown defense will be key, and predicts a TKO win in round one or two. He thinks it would take a gritty veteran to beat Kavanagh.
Jose Ochoa - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Carpenter | 0 | 68 of 153 | 44% | 70 of 155 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Jose Ochoa | 1 | 153 of 269 | 56% | 180 of 296 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clayton Carpenter | 0 | 23 of 49 | 46% | 25 of 51 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Jose Ochoa | 1 | 54 of 98 | 55% | 60 of 104 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 | |
| 2 | Clayton Carpenter | 0 | 25 of 54 | 46% | 25 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 51 of 94 | 54% | 51 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 3 | Clayton Carpenter | 0 | 20 of 50 | 40% | 20 of 50 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 48 of 77 | 62% | 69 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Carpenter | 68 of 153 | 44% | 24 of 82 | 25 of 49 | 19 of 22 | 61 of 143 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 2 |
| Jose Ochoa | 153 of 269 | 56% | 79 of 174 | 45 of 64 | 29 of 31 | 140 of 248 | 8 of 11 | 5 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clayton Carpenter | 23 of 49 | 46% | 8 of 27 | 10 of 17 | 5 of 5 | 19 of 44 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Jose Ochoa | 54 of 98 | 55% | 28 of 67 | 14 of 18 | 12 of 13 | 49 of 88 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | |
| 2 | Clayton Carpenter | 25 of 54 | 46% | 12 of 33 | 4 of 12 | 9 of 9 | 25 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jose Ochoa | 51 of 94 | 54% | 23 of 56 | 19 of 29 | 9 of 9 | 44 of 84 | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Clayton Carpenter | 20 of 50 | 40% | 4 of 22 | 11 of 20 | 5 of 8 | 17 of 46 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
| Jose Ochoa | 48 of 77 | 62% | 28 of 51 | 12 of 17 | 8 of 9 | 47 of 76 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ochoa (-180), Carpenter (+150)
Round 1
Fans and media alike have lamented UFC shows as of late, and for good reason. This is not one of those cards. Based on the metrics seen so far, UFC 328 tonight is slated to be a big one. A rousing 12 or 13 fights (we shall see) will drive excitement to a fever pitch inside of the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. We start things off with a fun one at flyweight between two athletes with nearly identical records. Carpenter (8-2, 2-2 UFC) and Ochoa (8-2, 1 NC; 1-2 UFC) will be aiming to make tonight their launch point, and referee Giovanna Scano will join them in the Octagon to get going. Without interest in touching gloves, the two race towards one another, and away we go.
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Ochoa is a man on a mission right out of the gate, as he walks the American down and busts him in the chops with a heavy flurry. He catches a high kick and slings Carpenter to the mat, and Carpenter springs back up and backs off. Ochoa pressures him, leading with his jab to set up power strikes. Ochoa rips a body shot and gets Carpenter’s attention, and Carpenter responds with a surging takedown attempt that crashes into a Peruvian wall. Carpenter bails on the attempt and keeps his guard up to defend the expected attack that comes at him, but he still gets tagged in the ribs a few times. Carpenter hurls back big offense, but Ochoa is elusive and does not just stand in the pocket to bang it out. Ochoa digs a left to the liver, and he sets up a few more and doubles Carpenter over. Carpenter tries to respond with a takedown, but he gets shut down before it comes close. Ochoa parries a front kick as he continues plodding forward, and he scores a low kick right before Carpenter is about to check it.
Carpenter tries to slow down the Peruvian with low kicks, but Ochoa’s volume, pace and power are all giving him fits early. Ochoa’s offense results in a clinch between the two, where he is met with a stern knee to the midsection. Carpenter lines up a few more knees on the inside before separating, and they bang heads into one another. Ochoa appears no worse for wear and keeps racing forward, slugging his fists into Carpenter’s face and stomach. Carpenter crumbles to the mat, and he hits his back and fishes for a low-percentage leglock. Ochoa drops down several elbows including a few 12-to-6 to the calf to break up the submission, and he turns and nails Carpenter with heavy ground-and-pound that has completely busted Carpenter’s nose open. Ochoa gets out of the danger, and Carpenter jumps back to his feet. Carpenter plods forward face-first into a jab, and he takes a front kick on the jaw as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ochoa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ochoa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ochoa
Round 2
Carpenter’s nose is a bit crooked coming out of his corner, but the bleeding has largely been slowed for now. It takes no time at all for Ochoa to bust it open again, as he drives forward with punches and front kicks. The variety of offense from “Kalzifer” is shutting down Carpenter, as are his body shots. Ochoa backs Carpenter to the wall and unloads a steady stream of fists to the face and sides, and Carpenter reels and tries to counter but is not able to land nearly as solidly. Ochoa picks his targets effectively, railing the sternum with several jabs and dancing away from counters. Ochoa leaves a body kick out too long, and Carpenter sprints around manages to circle around to take the back standing. Ochoa shimmies him off, so Carpenter slides off and fishes for a leglock. Ochoa wrenches his leg out, and the crowd roars. Ochoa walks Carpenter down to land cleanly, and he gets stood up by one single overhand right.
Ochoa slips and rips with his boxing, leaning back as Carpenter’s swings find nothing but air. Ochoa probes out with his jab, and he leaves himself open to get caught with a left hand upstairs. Carpenter lets go with a low kick and has his head snapped back with a power jab. The jabs from Ochoa have transformed Carpenter into practically a different person, and he sets up a kick that smacks the Arizona native square in the face. Carpenter shoots for a takedown, and he gets nowhere close to even changing levels before he is shut down. Ochoa mixes up head shots with those to the body, constantly giving Carpenter a puzzle to solve. Carpenter rushes out behind a few combinations, and Ochoa ducks one and beans Carpenter with a spinning elbow. Carpenter is tough as the third house from the “Three Little Pigs,” as no amount of heaving or blowing or swinging will put him down. They trade it out to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ochoa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ochoa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ochoa
Round 3
Ochoa the aggressor rushes forward to attack, giving Carpenter little room to breathe early. Carpenter stands his ground and hurls fists back, keeping Ochoa from trampling him. Carpenter attacks the body with his shin, and he takes two low kicks that force him to change stances. Ochoa goes to the body and head, head and body, body body head or head head body—it all differs. As Ochoa is plodding forward with fast hands, Carpenter tackles him to the mat and plants the Peruvian flat on his back. Blood splatters from Carpenter’s nose as he frantically looks to advance position and get off some strikes from above. Ochoa turns to his side to give his back up, and he slides Carpenter off of him. Ochoa stands, and Carpenter follows and takes a left hand square to the face. Carpenter swings back and drops down in pursuit of a single-leg takedown, and Ochoa hops to put his back to the fence to defend it.
Ochoa stands Carpenter up and knees him in the solar plexus, and he strikes the face a few more times with blood painted on the face of the MMA Lab athlete. They trade low kicks, with Carpenter still in the fight even if he might be quite down on the scorecards. Carpenter tries to time a step-in knee, but Ochoa is away in time. Ochoa prods and probes with his jab, and he is met with a pair of head kicks. Ochoa keeps his guard low when not expecting the high kicks, preparing to defend a possible level change as he keeps lighting Carpenter up on the feet. Ochoa goes to the body, slips back to dodge a counter, rips an uppercut and fires off a left to the ribs. Carpenter tosses out a body kick, and Ochoa catches it and returns fire with one of his own. Ochoa jabs the body several more times, pushing a head kick and body kick aside so he can put hands on the American. Carpenter advances with kicks, and he just misses getting caught with a back elbow. Ochoa raises his hands, and Carpenter attacks with seconds to spare. This nearly draws Carpenter into a jump knee, but he dodges it right as the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ochoa (30-27 Ochoa)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ochoa (30-27 Ochoa)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ochoa (30-27 Ochoa)
The Official Result
Jose Ochoa def. Clayton Carpenter via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Clayton Carpenter, citing his slick grappling, fast pace, and submission hunting. He notes Carpenter's takedowns and scrambling ability. He thinks Carpenter can grind out a win by constantly taking Ochoa down. He dismisses MMA math and says Carpenter has a great chin and cardio. He likes Carpenter if he is a dog.
Angelo picks Clayton Carpenter as a dog, citing that Jose Ochoa can be taken down and that Carpenter's aggressive grappling and submission hunting will be effective. He notes that Carpenter is eager to find submissions but sometimes loses position, expecting a back-and-forth fight similar to Ochoa's last fight. He is not confident enough to bet actual money on Carpenter due to concerns about jiu-jitsu control.
Big Brady leans Jose Ochoa despite Clayton Carpenter's wrestling advantage. He notes Ochoa's 'shoot to box' style and dangerous striking, expecting him to land bigger shots and do more damage. However, he acknowledges Carpenter could win a decision if he gets multiple takedowns. Brady predicts Ochoa wins by decision, citing his damage output and bigger moments.
Cody picks Carpenter as an underdog, citing his wrestling and grappling skills. He notes Ochoa's takedown defense issues and thinks Carpenter can control the fight on the ground. Cody is not fully confident but likes the plus money.
Connor also picks Ochoa, agreeing that Carpenter's wild style plays into Ochoa's hands. He notes that Ochoa has a real singular skill in striking and has shown maturity in fights, like against Azu Amabayev. Connor thinks Ochoa's problems are about decision-making, which can improve, while Carpenter needs to learn whole new skill sets.
Daniel picks Ochoa, noting that Ochoa is fighting for his contract and has always stood out more than Carpenter. He agrees with Cody that Ochoa's power and striking will be too much for Carpenter's ground game.
Ochoa has advantages everywhere: better striking, better grappling, better submission defense, and durability. Carpenter is flat-footed defensively and not a technical striker; Ochoa's takedown defense is solid (defended 9 of 16 against Almev, 2 of 4 against Duran). Ochoa fights at a high pace and is tough to hold down. Carpenter is a jack of all trades, master of none, and was held down easily by Ulanbekov. Ochoa should outstrike Carpenter and control him on the ground if needed.
Predicted method: KO/TKO Round 2. Ochoa has shown KO power (recent win over Cody Durden) and solid striking defense (60%), while Carpenter has lost two straight and has poor takedown defense (37%). Carpenter's best chance is to grapple, but Ochoa's 59% takedown defense should keep the fight standing. Ochoa's southpaw stance and reach advantage (67" vs 66") could trouble Carpenter. Expect Ochoa to land a knockout or win a competitive decision.
Jacob compares Clayton Carpenter to a 'Temu Cody Steel' and thinks Carpenter is way behind in striking. He believes Ochoa is much better on the feet and that Carpenter's takedowns will stop working as he gets hit. Jacob is confident that Ochoa's striking and takedown defense will lead to a win, possibly similar to the Cody Duran fight.
Lucrative James picks Jose Ochoa because he believes Ochoa's striking is too dynamic and powerful for Clayton Carpenter to handle on the feet. He notes that Carpenter's fight IQ is questionable and he may not grapple enough. He predicts Ochoa wins by knockout, as he expects Carpenter to get taken down but Ochoa to get back up and land big shots.
The host believes Carpenter's wrestling and ability to get to dominant positions will be the difference. He notes that Carpenter has a solid wrestling base and is aggressive in getting takedowns, unlike Ochoa's previous opponent Almeida who was more passive. He expects Carpenter to grind out a decision win, despite Ochoa's submission threats off his back. The host acknowledges Carpenter is on a two-fight losing streak but sees value at plus money.
Paul does not make a clear pick, saying he is not sure about this fight. He does not express a strong opinion.
The MMA Guru picks Jose Ochoa, citing his superior finishing potential and 'savage rating'. He notes Ochoa's impressive win over Cody Yuden and competitive performance against Lona Kavana. He believes Carpenter's grappling won't be enough to control Ochoa, who has good submissions and elbows off his back. On the feet, Ochoa has a massive striking advantage. He predicts a round two or three TKO for Ochoa.
Zane picks Ochoa, noting that Carpenter is a one-dimensional pressure fighter who relies on athleticism. Ochoa is the more technical striker and has shown some wrestling instincts. Zane believes Ochoa's decision-making issues are more solvable than Carpenter's lack of skills, and Ochoa's ability to fight off takedowns and counter could earn him a decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 55 of 90 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 2 | 0 | 9:26 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 26 of 45 | 57% | 118 of 151 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 0:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 10 of 18 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 3:16 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 36 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 32 of 45 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:47 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 46 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 13 of 27 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 36 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 22 of 42 | 52% | 12 of 26 | 5 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 20 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 16 |
| Jose Ochoa | 26 of 45 | 57% | 8 of 19 | 13 of 18 | 5 of 8 | 17 of 33 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 5 of 10 | 50% | 3 of 6 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jose Ochoa | 10 of 18 | 55% | 1 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 8 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 11 of 20 | 55% | 5 of 12 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 11 |
| Jose Ochoa | 5 of 9 | 55% | 2 of 3 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 6 of 12 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 |
| Jose Ochoa | 11 of 18 | 61% | 5 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabayev (-110); Ochoa (-110)
Round 1
The momentum of a 17-fight win streak for Almabayev (21-3, 4-1 UFC) came to a screeching halt not just because of his loss to Manel Kape, but
how
Ochoa is ready for combat, attacking repeatedly with low kicks and a hard left hand. Almabayev ties him up after taking a clean land, and he absorbs a knee and a left hand on the way to trying to take the fight down. Ochoa keeps his balance with the wall behind him, and he quickly pops up when Almabayev drags him to his knees. Almabayev uses a body lock to hurl “Kalzifer” to the floor, landing in side control, but once more Ochoa bursts back to his feet even with his fellow flyweight holding onto him. Almabayev looks to jump and take the back standing, but he falls off the back. On a second effort, Almabayev is able to take the back upright, but he has to hook his toes in the fence to stay balanced. He releases the grip and separates.
As Ochoa bears down on his opponent, Almabayev tags him with a punch and a high kick. Ochoa keeps pressing forward, and Almabayev slickly ducks under and drags him to the mat, where he gets on his back and starts crushing Ochoa’s nose with a face crank. Almabayev climbs onto his foe’s back while Ochoa is on his feet, and Ochoa leans against the fence to take some of the weight off of him. Almabayev hunts for a choke but is in the wrong position as he is nearly wriggled off, and he tries for a desperation leglock to stay there. He lets it go, and Ochoa rushes after him laying into him with his fists. Almabayev tries a takedown, and he narrowly avoids a knee on the way back up after it fails. Almabayev spins for a back kick, and Ochoa pushes through and takes his back with 30 seconds to go, setting up the body triangle as soon as he lands. Both men decided against submissions and start punching each other from that specific position until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Round 2
The fighters tap hands together twice to get going, and Ochoa is the aggressor although he walks through two low kicks and a takedown shot. Almabayev gets hold of the single and wrangles Ochoa to a knee but no further, as Ochoa springs back up. Ochoa goes after the Kazakhstan native, digging a body shot and firing off a knee up top. Almabayev ducks into a head kick but still manages to complete the takedown he was seeking. Ochoa scrambles as Almabayev is looking to pass, and he stands up and grabs hold of the neck of his opponent to threaten. Almabayev shakes out of it and knees his foe in the stomach. They trade some strikes on the inside and separate. Ochoa shrugs off a punch up top to nail Almabayev with a left hand and a knee, and Almabayev crashes through his hips to complete a takedown.
Almabayev lands in the guard, where he remains comfortably and gets off the occasional strike. Ochoa makes Almabayev think twice about smothering his foe freely thanks to a number of hammerfists off his back that have some surprising pop on them. Almabayev attempts to pass to the side, looking to work through the knee shield from the Peruvian. Ochoa throws up an armbar off his back from out of nowhere, and he is warned for grabbing Almabayev’s gloves to set it up. Ochoa loses the grip as Almabayev yanks out of the posture, but he immediately sets up a triangle choke to further threaten. Ochoa hooks his foot under his knee, holding onto the maneuver as the horn blows.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Round 3
The flyweights meet in the middle, and Almabayev lands first with a low kick. He tries to follow his success with a looping right hand, and he wings an overhand right to the stomach that allows him to shoot in on Ochoa’s hips. Ochoa attempts a knee to catch Almabayev coming at him, and he is dragged to his seat when it does not hit the wrestler flush. Almabayev grabs the fence, and Herzog calls him on it and breaks them apart. Almabayev apologizes, but he goes right after Ochoa for another takedown, this time in the open cage. Ochoa jumps guard for a guillotine choke, and it is tight until it is not as Almabayev calmly wriggles his neck out. Ochoa sets up a triangle choke from his high guard off his back, but Almabayev is able to easily break out of it.
Almabayev frames off with elbows to hammer down on the Peruvian, and Ochoa fights back every movement with hammerfists or some sort of scramble. Ochoa manages to turn to his knees and get upright with 90 second to spare, and Almabayev thanks him for this with a body kick and a takedown shot. Ochoa stuffs this attempt and is pushed to the wall, where they knee one another in the guts. Ochoa knocks Almabayev back with an elbow, and Almabayev points down at the floor to suggest that he wants to brawl for the final minute. Ochoa does not oblige him, so Almabayev surges into action with a left hand and a double. Ochoa puts his back to the wall and elbows the Kazakh in the side of the melon, until he gets free with a few seconds left. Ochoa overswings a right hand, and Almabayev ducks beneath him and takes his back standing. The fight ends with Almabayev holding on from behind.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev (30-27 Almabayev)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev (30-27 Almabayev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev (30-27 Almabayev)
The Official Result
Asu Almabayev def. Jose Ochoa via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Asu Almabayev despite the line swinging to make him an underdog. He notes Asu's flashy striking, dominant grappling, and ability to control range, while Jose Ochoa is on short notice. Angelo believes Asu's pace and pressure will be decisive, though he expects a close fight that may rely on judges. He placed a bet on Asu at -105.
Big Brady picks Jose Ochoa, citing his striking advantage and power. He believes Ochoa will stuff takedowns and get back up if taken down, then dominate on the feet. He notes Almabayev has low volume and no power, while Ochoa is a dangerous striker with finishing ability. He predicts a second-round knockout.
Connor sees Ochoa as a determined pressure fighter with fast hands who will punish Almabayev's rote responses. He notes that Almabayev struggled against Mennel Kopp's pressure and Ochoa is even more aggressive. He acknowledges the risk of Almabayev's clinch control but believes Ochoa's damage output will be decisive.
Almabayev is a much better grappler than Ochoa's previous opponent Duran. He should chain wrestle well, outscramble Ochoa, keep him in bad spots, and have striking success to win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Jose Ochoa, noting his near-win over Lona Cavanaught on short notice and his good grappling defense. He believes Almabayev's competition has been weak and that Ochoa's length and finishing potential will be key. He predicts a first or second-round finish for Ochoa.
Zane picks Ochoa as well, calling it a 'hope pick' because he loves Ochoa's game. He worries about Almabayev's clinch control but notes Ochoa's takedown defense and ability to get back up. He believes Ochoa's striking creativity and power will be the difference.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Durden | 0 | 9 of 41 | 21% | 12 of 47 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Jose Ochoa | 1 | 30 of 79 | 37% | 52 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Durden | 0 | 9 of 39 | 23% | 12 of 45 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 25 of 73 | 34% | 47 of 101 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Cody Durden | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jose Ochoa | 1 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Durden | 9 of 41 | 21% | 6 of 34 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 |
| Jose Ochoa | 30 of 79 | 37% | 18 of 42 | 7 of 28 | 5 of 9 | 24 of 71 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Durden | 9 of 39 | 23% | 6 of 32 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 |
| Jose Ochoa | 25 of 73 | 34% | 13 of 36 | 7 of 28 | 5 of 9 | 22 of 68 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Cody Durden | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jose Ochoa | 5 of 6 | 83% | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ochoa (-180), Durden (+150)
Round 1
Trying to break out of a bit of a rough patch, having lost three of four, Durden (17-7-1, 6-5-1 UFC) needs a win bad and wants it even more because this match takes place at home. A product of American Top Team Atlanta, he will welcome wild-swinging Ochoa (7-1, 1 NC; 0-1 UFC) to the ATL. When the dust settles between these two flyweights, one will return to the win column—barring something unexpected. Referee Kevin MacDonald will be on top of the action. The two combatants bump fists, and Ochoa comes out erratically with bouncing, jittery movement and kicks. Ochoa stabs the body with his toes extended, and he does this two more times before Durden comes back at him with a left hand. Ochoa continues working the body with the same move, and he spins with an elbow on the counter try from Durden. Durden shakes it off and is ready to trade, but it is Ochoa who lands in bunches. Ochoa’s movement allows him to avoid the worst that Durden tosses at him, while keeping a solid range with his legs outstretched constantly. Durden latches onto Ochoa’s right leg in pursuit of a single, wrangling the younger man to the mat and lacing his hooks around them for a moment. Durden slithers to the side in an attempt to take the back, but Ochoa knows this is coming and turns himself around while standing up. Durden knees his way out of the clinch, and Ochoa thanks him for this by kicking him in the fast-reddening lead leg. Ochoa slips a punch to connect with three, with Durden’s chin holding up but taking damage early. Ochoa tags the Georgian with a fast combination, and he grabs hold of a guillotine when Durden shoots and knees him to break up the shot. Ochoa goes to the body with a left, and he spams two head kick from the same leg and chains punches and another kick behind it. Durden tries to bully him back, only to absorbs an elbow and a mean left hand. Ochoa is a meat grinder, marching Durden down and putting him through his paces. Durden takes several more blows on the chin, and in response he unloads a right hand from the depths that stuns Ochoa to his core. This allows Durden to easily change levels and take Ochoa down, but Ochoa hits his back and starts firing off upkicks aplenty. Durden lowers himself down through the flailing legs, dropping down a few standing-and-ground punches. As soon as Ochoa locks up a triangle choke, the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ochoa
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Ochoa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ochoa
Round 2
The second round kicks off with Durden grinning like a banshee. As he moves to the center of the cage, Ochoa meets him there. Durden reaches out with a right hand to initiate an exchange, and the younger fighter dips back and clubs him with an uppercut that shakes the Covington, Georgia, native up badly. As Durden wobbles back to put the fence behind him, Ochoa just misses with a flying switch kick aimed at his mug.
The moment he plants his feet, Ochoa dodges a left hook and unloads a blistering short left hand that jacks Durden in the jaw and sends him careening to the floor. While MacDonald is sprinting to the fighters to wave things off, Ochoa hammers the local with two or three more fierce right hands.
MacDonald gets in to stop the fight, and Durden’s eyes are wide and rolling around in his noggin. Ochoa walks off and celebrates, while Durden looks around confusedly and briefly protests but needs to be helped back to his feet, further justifying the stoppage. Ochoa earns his first UFC victory in big way, putting down a gritty grappler like Durden in the latter’s home territory.
The Official Result
Jose Ochoa def. Cody Durden R2 0:11 via KO (Punches)
Angelo leans Cody Durden because he is battle-tested and relentless with takedowns. He notes that Jose has good takedown defense but hasn't faced a wrestler as determined as Cody. He acknowledges Cody's suspect chin but believes his pressure will be key.
Big Brady picks Jose Ochoa by second-round submission. He likes Ochoa's striking and sneaky submission game, and notes that Cody Durden has been taking damage and has four submission losses. He believes Ochoa is dangerous everywhere and will either knock out Durden or snatch a submission.
Connor picks Ochoa but is hesitant. He thinks Ochoa is a special prospect with solid kickboxing and clever positioning, but worries that Durden's relentless pressure and wrestling could expose Ochoa's defensive flaws. Connor notes that Ochoa's style is similar to Adesanya's, which can be exploited by aggressive fighters. He acknowledges that if Ochoa loses, it won't be a damning indictment.
Ochoa's superior striking and aggressive BJJ will overwhelm Durden. He will eventually secure a submission and force the tap.
The Guru picks Jose Ochoa, impressed by his performance against Lone'er Kavanagh where he showed finishing ability and hurt him to the body. He notes Ochoa is a 'nasty finisher' with submission skills, and expects a finish in the first two rounds, possibly by body shot or submission after hurting Durden.
Zane also picks Ochoa but with hesitation. He compares Ochoa to Bruno Silva, who beat Durden by waiting for an opening. Zane thinks Ochoa's smoother movement and evasiveness could allow him to counter Durden effectively. However, he notes that Durden is a tough, experienced wrestler who could make it difficult. Zane says Durden might be a smarter pick given the odds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 51 of 126 | 40% | 51 of 126 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 50 of 158 | 31% | 59 of 168 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 21 of 45 | 46% | 21 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 19 of 44 | 43% | 19 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 18 of 46 | 39% | 18 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 20 of 60 | 33% | 29 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 3 | Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 12 of 35 | 34% | 12 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 11 of 54 | 20% | 11 of 54 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 51 of 126 | 40% | 24 of 74 | 12 of 28 | 15 of 24 | 50 of 124 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jose Ochoa | 50 of 158 | 31% | 13 of 78 | 13 of 40 | 24 of 40 | 49 of 156 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lone'er Kavanagh | 21 of 45 | 46% | 6 of 21 | 4 of 10 | 11 of 14 | 21 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jose Ochoa | 19 of 44 | 43% | 3 of 19 | 2 of 6 | 14 of 19 | 19 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Lone'er Kavanagh | 18 of 46 | 39% | 9 of 28 | 7 of 11 | 2 of 7 | 17 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jose Ochoa | 20 of 60 | 33% | 7 of 29 | 6 of 20 | 7 of 11 | 19 of 58 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Lone'er Kavanagh | 12 of 35 | 34% | 9 of 25 | 1 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jose Ochoa | 11 of 54 | 20% | 3 of 30 | 5 of 14 | 3 of 10 | 11 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
A pair of unbeaten newcomers with seven wins apiece meet in hopes of keeping their spotless records intact. The prospects of Kavanagh (7-0, 0-0 UFC) are high, with many calling for him to get a call up to the big leagues after wiping out Davide Scarano with a spinning back kick in 2023. It took a bit longer than he expected, but he made it, and he meets Ochoa (7-0, 1 NC; 0-0 UFC). While the Brit has heard the final bell in the past, Ochoa has never even fought into the third round. Referee Mark Craig will have his hands full with these flyweights for as long as it goes. They share a sporting glove touch to get started, and Kavanagh strikes first with a low kick. Kavanagh parries the jabs Ochoa is setting up, ignoring a stomping kick to his knees so he can work his way in. Kavanagh has to hop back to block a head kick, and he presses forward with a push kick. Ochoa chops at the lead leg with a kick, and Kavanagh responds in kind. A head kick buzzes past Ochoa’s face in the blink of an eye, with the Peruvian looking at it with bemusement. Kavanagh chips at the front leg, and Ochoa does the same as they do not set up much else. Kavanagh nails the lead leg with a kick that makes Ochoa recoil it, and he dodges a counter right over the top when loosing a body kick. Kavanagh blocks a front kick and whiffs with a head kick, and he sees Ochoa come barreling towards him and blonks him on the head with a right hook. The Peruvian wears it well and lets fly a head kick that is blocked, with the two going tit-for-tat against one another. Ochoa connects with two leg kicks, and the crowd starts wooing as it is not entertained. Both fighters come up short on power strikes, with Kavanagh eventually reaching with a leg kick and then one to the ribs. Kavanagh closes in when Ochoa attempts a spinning back fist, and he chews up the inside and outside of Ochoa’s right leg with kicks. Ochoa goes wide with a haymaker, and Kavanagh slips the strikes and responds with a left hook that cuts Ochoa’s right eye. In a flurry of strikes, a Kavanagh kick does not find the right area and instead blasts Ochoa square in the family jewels. Ochoa walks off in pain, and Kavanagh knows what he did and apologizes. Craig calls time and tells Ochoa he has plenty of time to recover, and Ochoa is not having a good time right now. It takes over a minute for Ochoa to stand up, and he asks for a chance to wipe his bloodied eye that is cut on the lid. After 90 seconds, Ochoa is good to go, and they share a glove touch to restart. Kavanagh reintroduces himself with two more accurate leg kicks, and he allows Ochoa to kick him so he can plant a capoeira kick on his ribs. An Ochoa kick appears to go low, but Kavanagh waves it off and they trade front kicks. A clean Ochoa front kick drives Kavanagh back, and Kavanagh rushes at him swinging two hooks and a kick before the horn sounds. 10-9 Kavanagh.
Round 2
The fighters share a glove touch to get going in Round 2, with Kavanagh twirling about when not committing entirely to a leg kick. He instead aims one to the side, and he leans back when Ochoa’s feet fly past his face. Ochoa scores a Mortal Kombat-inspired sweep kick to the low leg, and Kavanagh no-sells it and responds with a head kick. Kavanagh chambers and fires a slapping leg kick, hoping to set up a high kick but Ochoa is wise to the latter. Ochoa keeps his hands dangerously low as he prods out with front kicks, and he sways back when Kavanagh kicks at him. Kavanagh scores a right hand, has a kick roll off his shoulder and prepares to fire off a counter. The right hand that comes from the Brit puts Ochoa on his seat, and Ochoa, grinning the whole time, climbs back to his feet. Ochoa attacks the front leg repeatedly, landing three or four until Kavanagh lets fly a booming body kick. Ochoa’s kicks keep his man at safe range until Kavanagh gets sick of waiting and lunges to blaze him with a right and then a huge left hook. Ochoa wants to engage, smiling all the while, and he absorbs a powerful left hand that makes him smile and bleed. Kavanagh’s poker face never changes as he unleashes kicks to the body and front leg, and Ochoa splits the distance and delivers a clean body shot. Ochoa chains and fires a few flashy strikes together that all miss, and he tries a capoeira kick that comes up short. Kavanagh stays composed and dings him with a left hook to draw more blood, and his leg kick keeps battering the front leg. Ochoa splits the guard with a front kick, and this makes Kavanagh bite down on his mouthpiece to engage. Ochoa appears to get the better of the exchange, hurting the former Cage Warriors fighter with a long series of punches. Ochoa changes the strikes to body shots, lowering Kavanagh to the floor until Kavanagh shoots desperately. The Peruvian jumps around to take the back, and he hunts for a rear-naked choke while on his foe’s back. Kavanagh leans against the fence to survive the submission, with the horn ending the round. 10-9 Ochoa.
Round 3
The fighters reach the final frame and clap hands, and it could be all tied up or Kavanagh could be ahead. No matter the score, the competitors get to business before long. Legs fly from both sides, with Ochoa picking and poking with kicks high and low, and his body kick draws a reaction out of his man. With Ochoa selling out for kicks, Kavanagh times a left hand that drops Ochoa. Kavanagh does not go wild for long, letting Ochoa have it but paying attention to when the jump knee inevitably comes at him. Ochoa gathers himself and beats on the body with kicks, and Kavanagh returns fire with two that leave mean looking welts on Ochoa’s waist. Kavanagh lunges with a left hook, and he nails the front leg with a kick. Ochoa digs a left to head and right to the body, and Kavanagh pays him back with a short but fierce combination. Ochoa tries to sweep the leg dramatically, and this time it is way short and the crowd boos him. The two crash together with offense, as Ochoa tries a head kick while too close. Kavanagh slips a huge punch to escape from harm, hand-fighting and letting loose with a head kick. Ochoa shrugs at him and belts him with a low kick. Ochoa chases Kavanagh down, walking into a jump knee as he spins with a back fist that bangs into the chest. Kavanagh strafes to the side, avoiding a hook kick and a head kick with active movement. Ochoa’s kicks miss again and again, resulting in Ochoa shrugging at him. Kavanagh wraps a head kick around the guard, and they both land with their fists. Ochoa steps in with a knee, and he gets countered with a left over the top and has a head kick graze his chin. Ochoa walks Kavanagh down without fear, kicking his way into a single-leg takedown attempt that fails. Kavanagh intercepts a kick to blast Ochoa in the face with a right hand, and he spins with a wheel kick that connects cleanly. The two fighters hug it out, and Kavanagh hits a back flip just because he can. 10-9 Kavanagh (29-28 Kavanagh).
The Official Result
Lone'er Kavanagh def. Jose Ochoa via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Lone'er Kavanagh, emphasizing his incredible speed and raw power. He believes Kavanagh's high-level training and speed will be the difference, as Ochoa will struggle to see shots coming. He notes both are finishers and suggests an under on round lines could be a play.
Big Brady picks Kavanagh to win by decision. He acknowledges the hype on Kavanagh from his contender series knockout but notes Jose Ochoa is dangerous with power. He believes Kavanagh has more ways to win with better tools on the feet and ground, and can mix in takedowns. He expects a back-and-forth war that goes the distance with Kavanagh getting his hand raised.
Cody picks Kavanagh confidently, calling him a top prospect with dynamic striking and grappling. He notes that Ochoa is a tough Peruvian brawler but lacks the technical skills to hang with Kavanagh. He expects Kavanagh to win by knockout, possibly early, and sees him as a top ticket play.
Daniel Vreeland praises both fighters as studs but gives the edge to Kavanagh due to being more seasoned and having fought higher-level competition. He notes that Ochoa is impressive and could be a top prospect soon, but Kavanagh's experience and maturity make him the pick. However, he mentions he would bet on Ochoa as an underdog due to the value.
Kavanagh has the hype but Ochoa has talent and potential. The line is too wide, but Kavanagh should land big shots and find a knockout. A small sprinkle on the underdog is suggested.
Paul agrees, noting Kavanagh's footwork and power are on another level. He acknowledges Ochoa's toughness but thinks Kavanagh's technique will be too much. He expects a dominant performance and is comfortable laying the chalk.
The MMA Guru is high on Lone'er Kavanagh, describing him as a savage with nasty combos and highlight-reel finishes. He notes Kavanagh has faced tougher competition, with his last three opponents having a combined record of 16-0. He believes Kavanagh's power at flyweight and good takedown defense will be key, and predicts a TKO win in round one or two. He thinks it would take a gritty veteran to beat Kavanagh.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Lone'er Kavanagh, emphasizing his incredible speed and raw power. He believes Kavanagh's high-level training and speed will be the difference, as Ochoa will struggle to see shots coming. He notes both are finishers and suggests an under on round lines could be a play.
Big Brady picks Kavanagh to win by decision. He acknowledges the hype on Kavanagh from his contender series knockout but notes Jose Ochoa is dangerous with power. He believes Kavanagh has more ways to win with better tools on the feet and ground, and can mix in takedowns. He expects a back-and-forth war that goes the distance with Kavanagh getting his hand raised.
Cody picks Kavanagh confidently, calling him a top prospect with dynamic striking and grappling. He notes that Ochoa is a tough Peruvian brawler but lacks the technical skills to hang with Kavanagh. He expects Kavanagh to win by knockout, possibly early, and sees him as a top ticket play.
Daniel Vreeland praises both fighters as studs but gives the edge to Kavanagh due to being more seasoned and having fought higher-level competition. He notes that Ochoa is impressive and could be a top prospect soon, but Kavanagh's experience and maturity make him the pick. However, he mentions he would bet on Ochoa as an underdog due to the value.
Kavanagh has the hype but Ochoa has talent and potential. The line is too wide, but Kavanagh should land big shots and find a knockout. A small sprinkle on the underdog is suggested.
Paul agrees, noting Kavanagh's footwork and power are on another level. He acknowledges Ochoa's toughness but thinks Kavanagh's technique will be too much. He expects a dominant performance and is comfortable laying the chalk.
The MMA Guru is high on Lone'er Kavanagh, describing him as a savage with nasty combos and highlight-reel finishes. He notes Kavanagh has faced tougher competition, with his last three opponents having a combined record of 16-0. He believes Kavanagh's power at flyweight and good takedown defense will be key, and predicts a TKO win in round one or two. He thinks it would take a gritty veteran to beat Kavanagh.
Comments (1)
Ochoa nice back take, good jiu jitsu?? Kavanagh nice singular striking. Measured, not that big thou
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