UFC 196: McGregor vs. Diaz · Mar 05, 2016 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 196: McGregor vs. Diaz
Age 34
Height 5' 7"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 36
Height 6' 1"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Teruto Ishihara
3.26 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
3.63 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
0.5 TD Avg
16.0% TD Acc.
30.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Julian Erosa
6.18 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
6.31 SApM
48.0% Str. Def.
1.73 TD Avg
43.0% TD Acc.
61.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Teruto Ishihara - Fight History
LOSS vs Kyung Ho Kang
SUB R1 3:59 · UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva · Feb 10, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kyung Ho Kang 1 17 of 47 36% 18 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Teruto Ishihara 1 26 of 58 44% 30 of 62 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kyung Ho Kang 1 17 of 47 36% 18 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Teruto Ishihara 1 26 of 58 44% 30 of 62 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kyung Ho Kang 17 of 47 36% 12 of 36 1 of 5 4 of 6 11 of 35 6 of 10 0 of 2
Teruto Ishihara 26 of 58 44% 19 of 46 7 of 12 0 of 0 15 of 40 11 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kyung Ho Kang 17 of 47 36% 12 of 36 1 of 5 4 of 6 11 of 35 6 of 10 0 of 2
Teruto Ishihara 26 of 58 44% 19 of 46 7 of 12 0 of 0 15 of 40 11 of 18 0 of 0
LOSS vs Petr Yan
TKO (punches) R1 3:28 · UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edwards · Jun 23, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Petr Yan 0 11 of 30 36% 11 of 30 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:18
Teruto Ishihara 2 25 of 40 62% 29 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Petr Yan 0 11 of 30 36% 11 of 30 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:18
Teruto Ishihara 2 25 of 40 62% 29 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Petr Yan 11 of 30 36% 4 of 18 2 of 5 5 of 7 9 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0
Teruto Ishihara 25 of 40 62% 18 of 32 7 of 8 0 of 0 19 of 31 1 of 1 5 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Petr Yan 11 of 30 36% 4 of 18 2 of 5 5 of 7 9 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0
Teruto Ishihara 25 of 40 62% 18 of 32 7 of 8 0 of 0 19 of 31 1 of 1 5 of 8
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold · Feb 11, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
José Alberto Quiñónez 1 33 of 109 30% 35 of 111 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:25
Teruto Ishihara 0 49 of 98 50% 54 of 103 2 of 7 28% 0 0 3:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 José Alberto Quiñónez 0 6 of 14 42% 8 of 16 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Teruto Ishihara 0 9 of 17 52% 14 of 22 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:18
2 José Alberto Quiñónez 1 10 of 47 21% 10 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
Teruto Ishihara 0 19 of 39 48% 19 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 José Alberto Quiñónez 0 17 of 48 35% 17 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Teruto Ishihara 0 21 of 42 50% 21 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
José Alberto Quiñónez 33 of 109 30% 8 of 77 6 of 12 19 of 20 29 of 102 4 of 7 0 of 0
Teruto Ishihara 49 of 98 50% 16 of 59 6 of 8 27 of 31 42 of 89 7 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 José Alberto Quiñónez 6 of 14 42% 2 of 8 4 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 9 3 of 5 0 of 0
Teruto Ishihara 9 of 17 52% 3 of 8 2 of 4 4 of 5 5 of 12 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 José Alberto Quiñónez 10 of 47 21% 3 of 37 1 of 3 6 of 7 10 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Teruto Ishihara 19 of 39 48% 6 of 24 3 of 3 10 of 12 17 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 José Alberto Quiñónez 17 of 48 35% 3 of 32 1 of 3 13 of 13 16 of 46 1 of 2 0 of 0
Teruto Ishihara 21 of 42 50% 7 of 27 1 of 1 13 of 14 20 of 40 1 of 2 0 of 0
WIN vs Rolando Dy
Decision (unanimous) (28–27, 28–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami · Sep 23, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Teruto Ishihara 1 50 of 98 51% 77 of 127 2 of 6 33% 0 0 5:57
Rolando Dy 0 48 of 85 56% 52 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Teruto Ishihara 1 25 of 42 59% 52 of 71 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:29
Rolando Dy 0 4 of 6 66% 7 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Teruto Ishihara 0 14 of 35 40% 14 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Rolando Dy 0 21 of 45 46% 21 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Teruto Ishihara 0 11 of 21 52% 11 of 21 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:13
Rolando Dy 0 23 of 34 67% 24 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Teruto Ishihara 50 of 98 51% 32 of 77 6 of 8 12 of 13 25 of 59 2 of 2 23 of 37
Rolando Dy 48 of 85 56% 30 of 61 15 of 21 3 of 3 33 of 68 13 of 13 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Teruto Ishihara 25 of 42 59% 21 of 36 4 of 5 0 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 23 of 37
Rolando Dy 4 of 6 66% 2 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 3
2 Teruto Ishihara 14 of 35 40% 7 of 27 1 of 2 6 of 6 13 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rolando Dy 21 of 45 46% 13 of 32 7 of 12 1 of 1 18 of 42 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Teruto Ishihara 11 of 21 52% 4 of 14 1 of 1 6 of 6 10 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rolando Dy 23 of 34 67% 15 of 25 7 of 8 1 of 1 14 of 24 9 of 9 0 of 1
LOSS vs Gray Maynard
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale · Jul 07, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gray Maynard 0 16 of 24 66% 37 of 46 11 of 11 100% 2 0 12:57
Teruto Ishihara 0 8 of 13 61% 14 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gray Maynard 0 7 of 12 58% 16 of 21 5 of 5 100% 0 0 3:46
Teruto Ishihara 0 4 of 6 66% 9 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Gray Maynard 0 5 of 6 83% 11 of 12 5 of 5 100% 0 0 4:32
Teruto Ishihara 0 3 of 5 60% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Gray Maynard 0 4 of 6 66% 10 of 13 1 of 1 100% 2 0 4:39
Teruto Ishihara 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gray Maynard 16 of 24 66% 8 of 15 8 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 3 3 of 4 12 of 17
Teruto Ishihara 8 of 13 61% 3 of 7 5 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 8 3 of 4 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gray Maynard 7 of 12 58% 5 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 3 4 of 6
Teruto Ishihara 4 of 6 66% 1 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Gray Maynard 5 of 6 83% 3 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 5
Teruto Ishihara 3 of 5 60% 1 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Gray Maynard 4 of 6 66% 0 of 1 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 6
Teruto Ishihara 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1
LOSS vs Artem Lobov
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · Nov 19, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Artem Lobov 0 82 of 160 51% 86 of 165 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:48
Teruto Ishihara 1 48 of 119 40% 55 of 131 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Artem Lobov 0 15 of 35 42% 15 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Teruto Ishihara 0 15 of 39 38% 15 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Artem Lobov 0 40 of 77 51% 40 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Teruto Ishihara 0 20 of 49 40% 20 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Artem Lobov 0 27 of 48 56% 31 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:48
Teruto Ishihara 1 13 of 31 41% 20 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Artem Lobov 82 of 160 51% 45 of 111 12 of 14 25 of 35 74 of 150 4 of 5 4 of 5
Teruto Ishihara 48 of 119 40% 20 of 77 12 of 25 16 of 17 45 of 116 1 of 1 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Artem Lobov 15 of 35 42% 8 of 26 3 of 4 4 of 5 15 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Teruto Ishihara 15 of 39 38% 1 of 16 6 of 15 8 of 8 15 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Artem Lobov 40 of 77 51% 21 of 51 7 of 8 12 of 18 36 of 72 4 of 5 0 of 0
Teruto Ishihara 20 of 49 40% 11 of 37 5 of 7 4 of 5 19 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Artem Lobov 27 of 48 56% 16 of 34 2 of 2 9 of 12 23 of 43 0 of 0 4 of 5
Teruto Ishihara 13 of 31 41% 8 of 24 1 of 3 4 of 4 11 of 29 0 of 0 2 of 2
TKO (punches) R1 2:32 · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres · Aug 06, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Teruto Ishihara 1 13 of 25 52% 13 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Horacio Gutiérrez 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Teruto Ishihara 1 13 of 25 52% 13 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Horacio Gutiérrez 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Teruto Ishihara 13 of 25 52% 7 of 17 3 of 5 3 of 3 8 of 19 0 of 0 5 of 6
Horacio Gutiérrez 5 of 18 27% 1 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 4 5 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Teruto Ishihara 13 of 25 52% 7 of 17 3 of 5 3 of 3 8 of 19 0 of 0 5 of 6
Horacio Gutiérrez 5 of 18 27% 1 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 4 5 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Julian Erosa
KO (punches) R2 0:34 · UFC 196: McGregor vs. Diaz · Mar 05, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Teruto Ishihara 0 16 of 44 36% 24 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:03
Julian Erosa 1 27 of 51 52% 31 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Teruto Ishihara 0 14 of 39 35% 22 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:03
Julian Erosa 0 22 of 43 51% 26 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
2 Teruto Ishihara 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julian Erosa 1 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Teruto Ishihara 16 of 44 36% 4 of 27 9 of 13 3 of 4 14 of 38 2 of 4 0 of 2
Julian Erosa 27 of 51 52% 19 of 42 3 of 3 5 of 6 22 of 39 1 of 4 4 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Teruto Ishihara 14 of 39 35% 3 of 24 8 of 11 3 of 4 12 of 33 2 of 4 0 of 2
Julian Erosa 22 of 43 51% 14 of 34 3 of 3 5 of 6 21 of 37 1 of 4 0 of 2
2 Teruto Ishihara 2 of 5 40% 1 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julian Erosa 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 6
Julian Erosa - Fight History
LOSS vs Lerryan Douglas
KO R1 3:33 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Mar 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Erosa 0 17 of 46 36% 18 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Lerryan Douglas 2 29 of 48 60% 30 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Erosa 0 17 of 46 36% 18 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Lerryan Douglas 2 29 of 48 60% 30 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Erosa 17 of 46 36% 13 of 40 2 of 2 2 of 4 16 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lerryan Douglas 29 of 48 60% 18 of 37 3 of 3 8 of 8 25 of 39 2 of 6 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Erosa 17 of 46 36% 13 of 40 2 of 2 2 of 4 16 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lerryan Douglas 29 of 48 60% 18 of 37 3 of 3 8 of 8 25 of 39 2 of 6 2 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Lerryan Douglas

Angelo picks Lando Vannata (Lerryan Douglas) as the more skilled fighter, cleaner and faster, and less hittable than Julian Erosa. He thinks Erosa's pressure could be a factor but believes Vannata's technique will prevail. He notes the odds are appropriate.

"I think Lando's the more skilled fighter. He's cleaner, he's faster, far less hittable than the borderline human punching bag in Julian Erosa."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Lerryan Douglas

Big Brady picks Lerryan Douglas to win by second-round knockout. He praises Douglas's power, calling him one of the hardest hitters in the featherweight division. He criticizes Julian Erosa's chin, noting he has been knocked out seven times and has poor striking defense. He expects a violent fight and believes Douglas will connect and knock Erosa out brutally.

Douglas by KO round 2
"Give me Lariano Douglas to win this fight and win it by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Lerryan Douglas

Cody favors Douglas to land a knockout due to Erosa's questionable chin and low hands. He acknowledges Erosa's path to victory via submission but thinks Douglas's power will prevail.

"Douglas probably just does catch him at some point."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Lerryan Douglas

Connor picks Douglas, expecting a flattening. He notes that Erosa is losing a step and looks slow and cumbersome, as seen in the Elkins and Costa fights. Douglas is a fast power puncher who sells out, and if he catches Erosa early, he can finish him. However, he acknowledges that if Erosa survives the first round, he tends to win.

Odds: Douglas opened -350, now -300; Erosa opened +285, now +250. Connor says odds are too wide.
"I think I'm going to take the flattening. I'm going to pick Douglas."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Lerryan Douglas

Daniel expects Douglas to knock out Erosa, citing Erosa's weak chin and Douglas's left hook power. He warns that if Douglas doesn't finish early, Erosa could make it competitive, but ultimately picks Douglas by KO.

"I'm going to pick Lerone Douglas to come out here and knock out Julian Erosa with a left hook."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Mar 28, 2026 (fight day)
Julian Erosa

The host sees value on Erosa as an underdog, believing the odds are too wide. Erosa is tough, has great cardio, and applies relentless pressure, which could trouble debutant Douglas. However, Erosa's recent poor fight IQ (losing to a one-legged opponent) gives pause. The host prefers the fight spread (+3.5) on Erosa rather than the moneyline, as he expects a competitive fight.

Likes Erosa +3.5 fight spread and over 1.5 rounds.
"All the value lies on Erosa this weekend. You'd be crazy to bet Douglas."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Lerryan Douglas

The host thinks Douglas will find a knockout due to his power and Erosa's defensive flaws, but he is cautious because Erosa's chin held up in his last fight. He expects Douglas to expose Erosa's awkward striking exits but acknowledges the risk if Erosa's durability holds. He suggests the knockout prop might be the play.

knockout
"I think he finds the knockout. I think he exposes the flaws in the uh the defensive striking game of Julian Rosa... I'm going to go Douglas by knockout, but I'm just a little bit queasy about that type of …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Paul is torn, calling it dog or pass. He considers Erosa's value but doesn't commit, suggesting live betting Erosa after the first round.

"I'm going to say dog or pass for the purposes of this show."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Lerryan Douglas

The MMA Guru picks Lerryan Douglas, calling him a 'clobberer' who throws heat-seeking punches. He believes Douglas's power and fast starts will be too much for Julian Erosa, whose chin is questionable. He notes Douglas's training at Bloodline MMA with Cub Swanson and Danny Silva as a positive. He predicts a KO in the first round.

KO in round 1
"We're going with Larry and Douglas. And also Larry and Douglas trains with uh Bloodline MMA."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Zane picks Erosa just for fun, calling it a coin flip. He notes that Douglas is awful moving backward and collapses inward, while Erosa is capable of pushing forward and has a vicious clinch game. He points out that Erosa has survived early trouble before and that Douglas's losses come from guys who gave him what he asked for and he couldn't handle it.

Odds: Douglas opened -350, now -300; Erosa opened +285, now +250. Zane says odds should be closer.
"I'll take Arosa just for fun."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Erosa 0 69 of 173 39% 85 of 202 3 of 10 30% 0 0 3:34
Melquizael Costa 0 102 of 204 50% 128 of 236 2 of 3 66% 1 0 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Erosa 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 27 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:36
Melquizael Costa 0 32 of 75 42% 32 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 Julian Erosa 0 23 of 54 42% 30 of 62 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:56
Melquizael Costa 0 33 of 55 60% 47 of 70 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:08
3 Julian Erosa 0 36 of 93 38% 45 of 113 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:02
Melquizael Costa 0 37 of 74 50% 49 of 91 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Erosa 69 of 173 39% 42 of 140 18 of 24 9 of 9 55 of 150 13 of 21 1 of 2
Melquizael Costa 102 of 204 50% 67 of 160 16 of 22 19 of 22 99 of 196 3 of 7 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Erosa 10 of 26 38% 5 of 19 1 of 3 4 of 4 9 of 24 0 of 0 1 of 2
Melquizael Costa 32 of 75 42% 14 of 52 7 of 10 11 of 13 32 of 73 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Julian Erosa 23 of 54 42% 11 of 40 8 of 10 4 of 4 15 of 43 8 of 11 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 33 of 55 60% 25 of 46 3 of 4 5 of 5 31 of 53 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Julian Erosa 36 of 93 38% 26 of 81 9 of 11 1 of 1 31 of 83 5 of 10 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 37 of 74 50% 28 of 62 6 of 8 3 of 4 36 of 70 1 of 3 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-192), Erosa (+160)

Round 1
Although much can be said about the state of UFC matchmaking as of late, the promotion knew exactly what it was doing when it matched Erosa (31-11, 9-7 UFC) against Costa (23-7, 4-2 UFC). It chose violence. The featherweights will go for broke under the watchful eye of referee Herb Dean, and they get right to it after embracing the formality of bumping fists. Costa prods with the ball of his foot, looking for low kicks as Erosa walks him down. Costa keeps working on the front leg as Erosa gives him one back, and Erosa grabs his foe’s foot and lifts it up. Costa bounces off the fence to get his limb back, and he whiffs on two hooks. Costa scores a body kick as he stays on the outside, and after pitching a leg kick, he trips on the edge of the cage but does not fall over. Erosa lets him get up and continues to trade kicks with him, and Costa mixes things up with a surprise Superman punch. Costa follows it with a booming head kick that rocks “Juicy J,” who backs off to the fence but is still dangerous as a coiled snake. Costa walks forward to throw bombs, and Erosa snipes him with a mean right hand that makes him think twice. Erosa gets his legs back beneath him and blocks a head kick, walking Costa down but taking three punches on the chin to do so. Erosa fakes a spin and lunges forward with an elbow, slipping and falling over. Costa lets him up so he can leap at him with a knee, and he chains punches into a body kick as Erosa is now the one retreating. Costa parries a few punches and lets fly a left hand, and his second effort reaches his man. Costa wraps a head kick around the guard and Erosa shrugs it off, nailing Costa with a right hand over the top. Erosa jumps at his foe to attack, and Costa times a spinning back kick that pounds into the cup. Erosa grumbles and adjusts his groin supporter before waving Dean off. Costa lets his foe’s fists and feet whiz past him so he can deliver a hard body kick, and Erosa fakes his way in to take the fight down. Erosa whips Costa all the way around to take him down, and he slashes down with an elbow as soon as he gets to side control. Costa is warned for having his toes in the cage, and Erosa drops down a few punches and leans back to watch an upkick buzz past him at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 2
Costa’s left foot is leaking blood as the second round begins, but he shrugs it off and touches gloves with his opponent. Erosa gets right into attack mode, firing off a head kick and a right hand but getting countered with a left and a body kick. Costa belts “Juicy J” with a left hand, and Erosa bites down on his mouthpiece to unload a power punch. Costa shakes Erosa up with a one-two, and Erosa again has to recover before coming forward. The punches of Costa make Erosa pursue a takedown, and Costa defends with a guillotine choke and stands back up to re-secure it. Erosa holds on and leverages Costa back down, but he in submission danger again. Costa lets go before burning his arms out, and he stands up. Erosa leans on from behind, his left eye swelling up fast. Costa defends a takedown effort and keeps his balance, stomping Erosa’s foot and receiving an elbow in the face for his effort. As Erosa is leaning heavily on his man, Costa sweeps his leg and puts him down for a second. Erosa climbs back up and walks through a one-two. Costa reaches the Washington native at the end of a left hand, and Erosa fires back with a vengeance. They reach one another with long punches, and instead of clinching, Erosa pushes off and shrugs at him. Costa lines up a solid crescent kick that hits the target, and Erosa goes for broke with punches and kicks to any target he can find. Erosa pokes Costa in the eye, and Costa tells them he is fine and keeps going. Erosa thanks him by drilling a spinning back kick in his ribs, and Costa laughs it off and throws hammers. Erosa staggers Costa with a pair of hooks, and a grinning Costa swings back with bad intentions and rocks Erosa. Erosa spins through to hit Costa in the face with his foot, and he knocks Costa across the cage with a left hand right before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erosa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 3
While Erosa does touch gloves, he is a man on a mission. Walking Costa down immediately, he swings his way into a clinch. Erosa leans on the Brazilian to slow him down, getting off the occasional knee until Costa trips him and sets him down. Erosa responds by nailing Costa with an upkick and working his way to his feet, where he backs “Melk” off and dislodges his mouthpiece with a right hand. He follows with another right hand to lead into a clinch, and Costa backs off with a left hook. The two clash heads after Erosa lands an uppercut, and “Juicy J” pours it on while swinging wildly. Costa’s head movement keeps him relatively safe, and he blasts Erosa in the jaw with four punches in a combination. Erosa’s movement leads him to banging into the fence, but he is quick to shake it off and uppercut Costa in the chops. Erosa continues staying in Costa’s face, with punches that lead to an elbow as Costa is backing off but smiling. Erosa lines up punches in bunches, and his elbows are not accurate. They proceed to brawl it out with little regard to defense or cardio, and even though Costa is fatigued, he is still loading up with everything he has. Thankfully for those watching this carnage, Erosa is doing just the same, as they proceed to hammer one another in the jaw again and again. Costa trips Erosa up to get a second to breathe, and he backs off to avoid an upkick and let Erosa stand. Erosa marches ever forward, swinging recklessly while Costa is giving it back when he can. Costa takes several punches square on the jaw and offers up a knee, and Erosa spins with a back fist. A second and third back fist from Erosa do manage to rail into the Brazilian, who is as tough as nails and never falters. The action-packed “Fight of the Night” candidate goes the distance, and both exhausted men raise their arms. The second round may be where the victor emerges.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erosa (29-28 Erosa)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa (29-28 Costa)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa (29-28 Costa)

The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Julian Erosa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Angelo picks Melquizael Costa with high confidence, stating that Costa should be better everywhere. He notes Costa's creative striking, solid grappling, and incredible scrambles. His only concern is Costa's activity level, as this will be his fifth fight in 12 months, which could lead to nagging injuries or fatigue. However, Angelo is not overly concerned and expects Costa to win.

"Mel Costa. I am very confident in this pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Big Brady picks Julian Erosa as a dog, acknowledging Costa could knock him out early. He notes Costa's quick turnaround and tendency to slow down, while Erosa has great cardio and a nasty choke game. He predicts Erosa wins by second-round submission if it gets extended.

Erosa by submission, round 2
"I like a Rosa here as a dog. ... I'm going to take him to win this fight by second round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Melquizael Costa

The host notes Costa's aggressiveness and unorthodox striking can catch Erosa off guard, especially since six of Erosa's seven losses have come by knockout. He feels Costa can take advantage of Erosa's mistakes and get a finish. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds.

Costa by KO/TKO; under 2.5 rounds
"I think his just aggressiveness and unorthodox striking approach can really catch Arosa offguard."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Melquizael Costa

The Guru picks Melquizael Costa, calling him a fellow 'fraud checker' who can handle Julian Erosa's gritty style. He notes Costa's grappling looked improved against Christian Rodriguez and his kicks are very good. He worries about Erosa's upset potential but believes Costa is better and more active. He predicts a TKO or decision win.

"I'm going to have to go with Malikisel Costa. I think he's just better by far than Julian Rosa."
WIN vs Darren Elkins
KO R1 4:15 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Elkins 0 13 of 31 41% 18 of 45 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:48
Julian Erosa 0 54 of 73 73% 69 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Elkins 0 13 of 31 41% 18 of 45 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:48
Julian Erosa 0 54 of 73 73% 69 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Elkins 13 of 31 41% 11 of 28 1 of 2 1 of 1 12 of 29 0 of 0 1 of 2
Julian Erosa 54 of 73 73% 52 of 71 0 of 0 2 of 2 22 of 39 11 of 12 21 of 22
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Elkins 13 of 31 41% 11 of 28 1 of 2 1 of 1 12 of 29 0 of 0 1 of 2
Julian Erosa 54 of 73 73% 52 of 71 0 of 0 2 of 2 22 of 39 11 of 12 21 of 22
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Julian Erosa

Daniel Levi states that Julian Erosa did exactly what he was supposed to do as a big favorite, handling the older veteran Darren Elkins. He approves of the performance.

"Rosa did exactly what he was supposed to do as a big favor. You go out there and you handle, you know, the kind of old decrepit 40-year-old vet, and that's exactly what he did."
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 4:49 · UFC on ESPN: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Jul 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Erosa 0 35 of 88 39% 39 of 94 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:41
Christian Rodriguez 0 33 of 75 44% 33 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Erosa 0 35 of 88 39% 39 of 94 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:41
Christian Rodriguez 0 33 of 75 44% 33 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Erosa 35 of 88 39% 27 of 73 7 of 13 1 of 2 33 of 84 2 of 4 0 of 0
Christian Rodriguez 33 of 75 44% 26 of 67 2 of 2 5 of 6 31 of 73 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Erosa 35 of 88 39% 27 of 73 7 of 13 1 of 2 33 of 84 2 of 4 0 of 0
Christian Rodriguez 33 of 75 44% 26 of 67 2 of 2 5 of 6 31 of 73 0 of 0 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Julian Erosa vs. Christian Rodriguez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-205), Erosa (+170)

Round 1
Always willing to either add to his highlight reel or be a part of someone else’s, Erosa (29-11, 7-7 UFC) and his .500 record come to a head with Roufusport’s Rodriguez (11-1, 4-1 UFC). While “CeeRod” holds four wins on the scorecards, three of those have come in his last three outings. On the other hand, the last three walks to the cage for Erosa have ended in the first round. Whether it takes three minute or three rounds to get to a result, referee Nick Berens will be here for it from start to finish. The featherweights bump fists, and Erosa uses a front kick to keep Rodriguez away. Rodriguez passes right past it and puts his hands on Erosa’s face. Erosa is reddened up in a hurry from the quick punches from Rodriguez, and he answers with a pair of looping uppercuts. Erosa flicks out his jab, and Rodriguez dips down and smashes him in the face with a head kick. As they trade, Rodriguez’ mouthpiece goes flying, and Erosa sees it and decides it is time to brawl. They slug it out fast and furiously until Berens finds a moment to replace the gumshield, and they get right back to it. Erosa goads Rodriguez on, and he clips “CeeRod” with a right hand in the midst of a speedy combination. They both connect with powerful blows, and Erosa gets off a strong front kick. Rodriguez kicks his man upside the head, and Erosa tells him to bring it on. Rodriguez does just that. Erosa manages to get Rodriguez to take a step back with his own counters, and his front kick to the chest and face are able to keep the hard-charging Rodriguez relatively at bay. Rodriguez settles down and tosses out a low kick, and Erosa wags his finger at him and rings his bell an elbow. Erosa walks his man down and pounds him in the face with his fists, and Rodriguez responds with a flurry ending with a right hand that staggers Erosa back. Erosa gathers his thoughts and marches forward, a cut opened on the bridge of his nose, and he lets go with a head kick that is blocked. Another elbow from Erosa comes up short, and he catches a kick and bowls and trips Rodriguez to the mat. Erosa scrambles to take Rodriguez’ back and set up a body triangle, and he is quick to consider an armbar instead of going after the neck like usual. Rodriguez defends the possible submission and turns to his knees, and he manages to flip Erosa over. Erosa’s upkicks do not keep Rodriguez off of him, as Rodriguez leaps at him and punches him hard.
Erosa ignores them and grabs hold of a guillotine choke, and it is suddenly and surprisingly tight. Erosa tightens his legs around the waist of his foe and turns to the side, and falls to his back to complete the submission. Rodriguez tries to tough it out, but he is forced to surrender with seconds left on the clock.
Erosa sits up and shoves Rodriguez off of him when Berens intervenes, springing yet another upset and adding one more impressive stoppage to his ledger. The victorious "Juicy J" becomes the first fighter to finish Rodriguez as a professional.

The Official Result
Julian Erosa def. Christian Rodriguez R1 4:49 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Angelo picks Christian Rodriguez but with caution, noting that Rodriguez has been gifted decisions and has never faced a veteran as experienced as Julian Erosa. He acknowledges Rodriguez's slick striking and composure but points out his lack of finishing ability and the fact that Erosa is much larger and more experienced. Angelo warns that the odds seem wide for a fighter who lost to the last tough veteran he faced.

"I do think Christian Rodriguez wins this fight but the odds seem wide two to one favorite 3 to one favorite that seems wide"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Cody picks Rodriguez, highlighting his youth, cardio, and striking advantage. He notes Erosa's history of getting knocked out and believes Rodriguez will overwhelm him with volume and power. He expects a finish, possibly in the first or second round.

"Rodriguez just crushes him like first round knockout."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Daniel Vreeland picks Christian Rodriguez to win, predicting his first UFC knockout. He notes that Rodriguez has handed prospects their first losses and that Erosa's chin is a massive liability. He advises Rodriguez to headhunt rather than engage in a technical battle. He believes Rodriguez will pass the Erosa test.

by KO
"I'm gonna go Christian Rodriguez here to get it done and continue the big win streak."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Christian Rodriguez is the slicker striker and one of the best prospects on the roster. Despite a height and reach disadvantage, he will crash the pocket, land combinations, and eventually drop Erosa, leading to a knockout or a club-and-sub opportunity.

"I think Rodriguez is one of the best if not the best prospect on the roster right now and I think you'll showcase it once again by picking up the biggest win of his UFC career"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Paul picks Rodriguez, citing his superior cardio and durability. He notes Erosa's knockout losses and believes Rodriguez's pressure will be too much. He acknowledges Erosa's length but thinks Rodriguez's pace will win the fight.

"I'll be going with Christian Rodriguez as well."
WIN vs Ricardo Ramos
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:15 · UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Mar 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Erosa 0 7 of 17 41% 12 of 23 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:27
Ricardo Ramos 0 4 of 11 36% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Erosa 0 7 of 17 41% 12 of 23 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:27
Ricardo Ramos 0 4 of 11 36% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Erosa 7 of 17 41% 5 of 14 1 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 2
Ricardo Ramos 4 of 11 36% 2 of 8 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Erosa 7 of 17 41% 5 of 14 1 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 2
Ricardo Ramos 4 of 11 36% 2 of 8 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Angelo leans towards Julian Erosa as an underdog, citing his higher level of competition and ability to weather a storm and grind out a decision. He notes that Ramos is dangerous but also finishable, while Erosa is tough and can dog fights out. He will monitor the line movement for better value.

"I'm going to lean the underdog here I'm going to go with Julian he has the much higher level of competition under his belt and I can see him weathering a storm and then grinding out a decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ricardo Ramos

Big Brady picks Ricardo Ramos, citing Julian Erosa's poor durability (knocked out seven times at featherweight) and low striking defense (47%). He notes Erosa is hittable and his chin is not getting better after back-to-back knockout losses. He expects Ramos to land something and knock Erosa out in the first round.

first round knockout
"I'm taking ricado Ramos I'll take him to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Cody picks Erosa as an underdog, citing his volume and unorthodox style. He acknowledges Erosa's weak chin but believes Ramos is not a big power puncher and may struggle with Erosa's pressure. Cody thinks Erosa can win by decision or late finish if he avoids getting knocked out.

"I will take this ever so slight Underdog play here on Juicy J Julian orosa."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ricardo Ramos

Daniel Vreeland picks Ricardo Ramos by first-round knockout, emphasizing that Erosa has a terrible chin and has been dropped multiple times. He believes Ramos should head-hunt and sell out for the finish, as Erosa is dangerous if the fight extends. He notes if it goes past the first round, all bets are off.

Ramos by first-round knockout
"I think Ramos is gonna come out here and get a ko1"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ricardo Ramos

Ramos has the grappling edge and should be able to muzzle Erosa's unorthodox striking. Erosa is on a two-fight KO loss streak and may be on the chopping block. Ramos should dictate the pace and win on the scorecards, possibly even latching onto a submission. The fight going to decision is also appealing at plus money.

Fight goes to decision (plus money)
"I think that we'll see the better body of work from hamos and I think we'll see him win this fight on the scorecards I think the fight to go to decision is what I like the most."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Paul picks Erosa by KO, noting Ramos's cardio issues and tendency to struggle when missing weight. He believes Erosa's volume and durability will overwhelm Ramos. Paul also likes the under 2.5 rounds, expecting a finish.

under 2.5 rounds
"I'm thinking orosa by KO is where I would think here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ricardo Ramos

The MMA Guru picks Ricardo Ramos over Julian Erosa, citing Ramos's finishing potential and Erosa's recent chin issues. He mentions Erosa's KO losses to Fernando Padilla and Alex Caceres, and a war with Steven Peterson that makes him doubt Erosa. He predicts a first-round KO for Ramos.

round one KO
"I'm going with Ricardo Ramos... this boy is getting chinned by Ricardo Ramos in round one"
TKO (punches) R1 1:41 · UFC on ESPN: Song vs. Simon · Apr 29, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Fernando Padilla 0 15 of 24 62% 15 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Julian Erosa 1 20 of 29 68% 20 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Fernando Padilla 0 15 of 24 62% 15 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Julian Erosa 1 20 of 29 68% 20 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Fernando Padilla 15 of 24 62% 9 of 18 1 of 1 5 of 5 15 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julian Erosa 20 of 29 68% 17 of 25 2 of 3 1 of 1 19 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Fernando Padilla 15 of 24 62% 9 of 18 1 of 1 5 of 5 15 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julian Erosa 20 of 29 68% 17 of 25 2 of 3 1 of 1 19 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Fernando Padilla

Cody picks Padilla as an underdog, citing Erosa's durability issues and tendency to get knocked out. He notes that Padilla has decent power and could catch Erosa early. However, he is flip-floppy and admits he wants to pick Erosa due to experience, but the favorite tag on a chinny fighter makes him lean towards the underdog.

"for the purposes of the show I need some underdogs and I'll I'm gonna take Padilla but like ah I want to take a Rosa I really really do"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Connor thinks Erosa's experience and durability will prevail. He notes Padilla's poor defense and tendency to gas, and that Erosa gets stronger as fights go on. He acknowledges Erosa's history of getting KO'd but believes Padilla's lack of power and technical striking make it less likely. He sees Erosa as the more versatile fighter in messy exchanges.

Odds mentioned: Erosa opened -252, currently -140. Padilla opened +218, currently +126. Connor thinks the odds should be closer to 50/50.
"I'm going to take your Rosa as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Paul picks Erosa but very cautiously, acknowledging his chin issues and recent knockout losses. He notes that Erosa is talented and exciting but has been knocked out by light punchers. He is not confident enough to bet on Erosa, but for the pick he goes with Erosa, hoping he doesn't get cracked again.

"I'm gonna be picking Julian Arosa but uh ever so cautiously because that chin can get cracked and has got cracked"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Zane agrees, citing Padilla's limited game and Erosa's ability to win scrambles and late rounds. He notes Padilla's submissions off his back but thinks Erosa's aggression and cardio will be decisive. He sees Erosa as the rightful slight favorite.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"I'm going to take your Rosa as well."
LOSS vs Alex Caceres
TKO (head kick and punches) R1 3:04 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Dec 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Caceres 1 16 of 30 53% 16 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Julian Erosa 0 10 of 22 45% 10 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Caceres 1 16 of 30 53% 16 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Julian Erosa 0 10 of 22 45% 10 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Caceres 16 of 30 53% 9 of 19 3 of 6 4 of 5 13 of 24 0 of 0 3 of 6
Julian Erosa 10 of 22 45% 2 of 11 3 of 4 5 of 7 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Caceres 16 of 30 53% 9 of 19 3 of 6 4 of 5 13 of 24 0 of 0 3 of 6
Julian Erosa 10 of 22 45% 2 of 11 3 of 4 5 of 7 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Angelo is very confident in Julian Erosa, believing he can win the stand-up exchanges and stay alive on the ground. He notes Erosa has more power, volume, and good enough takedowns to keep Caceres guessing. He acknowledges Caceres' experience could sneak out a win but thinks Erosa is dangerous and well-rounded enough.

"I love Julian erosa in this spot and he's one of the few confident picks I have on this card"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Big Brady picks Julian Erosa, noting that Erosa is typically an underdog but is favored here. He likes Erosa's volume, pressure, power, and submission game. He thinks Caceres lacks power and has been submitted many times. He expects Erosa to break Caceres and get a second-round submission.

Erosa wins by submission in round 2
"I like a Rosa to kind of break because Sarah says the fight goes on and I'll say Rosa gets a second round submission win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Cody picks Erosa, noting his inconsistency but coming off a good performance against Hakeem Dawodu. He thinks Erosa has all the intangibles: volume, movement, wrestling, and grappling. He believes Caceres is a gatekeeper who beats lower-level guys but loses to legit fighters. He expects Erosa to outwork Caceres and win by decision.

Erosa by decision
"I gotta go with that man he looks so complete against Hakeem... I think Rosa wins gross wins by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Dec 17, 2022 (fight day)

The host bet the over 2.5 rounds, not a moneyline pick. He thinks both guys are durable and neither has big knockout power, so it should go to decision. He leans Erosa to win but doesn't like the -170 moneyline. No clear winner pick.

Over 2.5 rounds at -155, 1.55 units; mentioned Erosa by decision
"I don't really think considers has that big pop in his shots to put him down and put him out same on the erosa side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Paul picks Erosa, agreeing with Cody. He notes his biggest concern with Erosa is his chin against power punchers, but Caceres is not a one-hitter quitter. He expects Erosa to clear 65.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks, as he throws high volume and the fight likely goes to decision.

Erosa over 65.5 significant strikes (PrizePicks)
"I will be adding erosa significant strikes more than 65.5 on price picks"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

The MMA Guru picks Julian Erosa over Alex Caceres, believing Erosa's pace, pressure, and wrestling will be too much. He notes Caceres is vegan and Erosa goes to the body a lot, which could be a factor. He thinks Caceres won't finish Erosa, and Erosa's grappling is too good to get submitted. He predicts a third-round finish or decision win for Erosa, citing his recent wins over Hakeem Dawodu and Nate Landwehr.

"I'll go Juliana Rosa I think it's time to stop doubting him as a fighter"
WIN vs Hakeem Dawodu
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Sep 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Erosa 0 74 of 147 50% 90 of 163 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:12
Hakeem Dawodu 0 92 of 188 48% 152 of 257 2 of 6 33% 0 0 4:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Erosa 0 31 of 57 54% 36 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Hakeem Dawodu 0 48 of 87 55% 60 of 99 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:41
2 Julian Erosa 0 21 of 39 53% 28 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Hakeem Dawodu 0 22 of 51 43% 47 of 80 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:30
3 Julian Erosa 0 22 of 51 43% 26 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:08
Hakeem Dawodu 0 22 of 50 44% 45 of 78 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Erosa 74 of 147 50% 43 of 109 18 of 21 13 of 17 57 of 126 16 of 20 1 of 1
Hakeem Dawodu 92 of 188 48% 60 of 149 28 of 32 4 of 7 59 of 149 24 of 30 9 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Erosa 31 of 57 54% 14 of 36 10 of 12 7 of 9 23 of 48 8 of 9 0 of 0
Hakeem Dawodu 48 of 87 55% 32 of 67 15 of 16 1 of 4 34 of 72 14 of 15 0 of 0
2 Julian Erosa 21 of 39 53% 16 of 34 2 of 2 3 of 3 16 of 34 5 of 5 0 of 0
Hakeem Dawodu 22 of 51 43% 13 of 39 6 of 9 3 of 3 11 of 35 6 of 11 5 of 5
3 Julian Erosa 22 of 51 43% 13 of 39 6 of 7 3 of 5 18 of 44 3 of 6 1 of 1
Hakeem Dawodu 22 of 50 44% 15 of 43 7 of 7 0 of 0 14 of 42 4 of 4 4 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Angelo picks Hakeem Dawodu, citing his technical striking and power. He notes Erosa relies on his chin and was losing to a lower-level striker before getting late takedowns. He thinks Dawodu's technicality and power will be too much, and he has a moneyline bet on Dawodu.

moneyline bet on Dawodu
"I love Hakeem Dawodu I love him in this fight I have a money line bet on him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Big Brady picks Hakeem Dawodu to win by second-round knockout, praising Dawodu's striking and power. He notes Julian Erosa is very hittable and has been knocked out multiple times, while Dawodu looked phenomenal in his last fight. He believes Dawodu is the better striker and will land clean, though he acknowledges Erosa is always in exciting fights and could finish himself.

second round knockout
"I think Keem knocks him out I'll say in the second round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Cody picks Hakeem Dawodu, noting his clean technical striking and that he is a better striker than Erosa. He likes the under 2.5 rounds at plus money, as Erosa is a wild fighter who often leads to finishes. He believes Dawodu's takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing and that he will pick Erosa apart.

Under 2.5 rounds at +120
"i think the wadu wins but i like the under more um for my money"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Daniel Levi picks Hakeem Dawodu confidently. He praises Dawodu's technical striking, low stance, and volume, and considers him a top-15 featherweight. He notes Erosa's tendency to get dropped but come back, but believes Dawodu's technical soundness will prevent a comeback. Levi sees Dawodu winning by knockout or decision.

"I do have hakim dawa do to win this fight but i gotta give credit to arosa."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Jacob agrees, saying if the fight stays clean, Dawodu dominates in a kickboxing match. He notes Erosa's only chance is to turn it into a brawl, but Dawodu has good takedown defense. He thinks Dawodu should win easily but might sprinkle Erosa into a DraftKings lineup as an underdog.

might sprinkle Erosa into a DraftKings lineup
"If this stays clean there is not many people in the UFC in the featherweight division that are gonna beat Hakeem in a clean kickboxing match."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

The host is confident in Hakeem Dawodu, expecting his crisp striking, discipline, and distance management to outpoint the wild and hittable Erosa. He sees a decision win as the most likely path and notes Dawodu's decision prop at +140.

Hakeem Dawodu by decision (+140)
"Give me Hakeem Dawodu by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Paul is confident in Hakeem Dawodu, calling him one of his anchors. He praises Dawodu's Muay Thai and technique, and believes his takedown defense is sufficient. He expects Dawodu to win by late stoppage or decision, as Erosa is wild and loopy with his strikes. He notes that Erosa fights down to his opponent's level.

"at -220 i feel like hakeem is going to be one of my anchors this week i think he's a better striker takedown defense is good enough to keep this fight standing"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2022 (fight day)
Hakeem Dawodu

The MMA Guru picks Hakeem Dawodu to win by 29-28 decision, losing the third round but winning the first two. He notes Dawodu had a bad weight cut, so Erosa's pace may get to him later. Dawodu will pick at Erosa at range, chew up his leg, land body shots, and win clinch exchanges. Erosa may steal the third round with pressure, but Dawodu's first two rounds secure the win.

decision 29-28
"I think we're gonna see a 29-28 decision by Hakeem dawadu losing the third round but winning the first two"