Career Averages - Miesha Tate
Career Averages - Holly Holm
Miesha Tate - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yana Santos | 0 | 66 of 117 | 56% | 87 of 143 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 40 of 115 | 34% | 108 of 204 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 5:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yana Santos | 0 | 31 of 61 | 50% | 43 of 76 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 22 of 55 | 40% | 33 of 72 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 | |
| 2 | Yana Santos | 0 | 31 of 44 | 70% | 39 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 13 of 43 | 30% | 18 of 48 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 3 | Yana Santos | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 5 of 17 | 29% | 57 of 84 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yana Santos | 66 of 117 | 56% | 37 of 87 | 15 of 16 | 14 of 14 | 47 of 96 | 19 of 21 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 40 of 115 | 34% | 25 of 88 | 8 of 17 | 7 of 10 | 29 of 100 | 8 of 10 | 3 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yana Santos | 31 of 61 | 50% | 14 of 44 | 9 of 9 | 8 of 8 | 19 of 47 | 12 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 22 of 55 | 40% | 14 of 43 | 4 of 7 | 4 of 5 | 20 of 52 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Yana Santos | 31 of 44 | 70% | 20 of 33 | 6 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 24 of 37 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 13 of 43 | 30% | 6 of 28 | 4 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 36 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Yana Santos | 4 of 12 | 33% | 3 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 5 of 17 | 29% | 5 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
Angelo picks Yana Santos as the underdog, citing her superior striking and footwork. He believes Miesha Tate is one-dimensional and will struggle to get takedowns. He notes that Santos looked good in her last fight and that Tate has not evolved enough to compete. He also mentions a possible spread bet if available.
Big Brady picks Miesha Tate, citing a clear path to victory via takedowns and ground control. He notes that Yana Santos has poor takedown defense (42%) and looks bad on bottom, as seen against Holly Holm and Ketlen Vieira. Despite Tate's age (38) and inconsistency, her ground game is strong with submissions and ground and pound. He predicts Tate will finish by second-round submission.
Tate should take advantage of Santos's grappling shortcomings. She will mix up takedowns, get top control, and grind out a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate, stating that Yana Santos has shown an inability to do anything on the ground. He believes Tate's wrestling and experience will be enough to outwrestle Santos. He criticizes the state of women's bantamweight but expects Tate to get the win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 32 of 37 | 86% | 127 of 152 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 10:55 |
| Julia Avila | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 16 of 18 | 88% | 50 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:54 |
| Julia Avila | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 16 of 18 | 88% | 69 of 82 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:50 |
| Julia Avila | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:11 |
| Julia Avila | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miesha Tate | 32 of 37 | 86% | 31 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 29 |
| Julia Avila | 3 of 11 | 27% | 3 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miesha Tate | 16 of 18 | 88% | 16 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 14 |
| Julia Avila | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Miesha Tate | 16 of 18 | 88% | 15 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 15 |
| Julia Avila | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Miesha Tate | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Julia Avila | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Cody takes Tate as an underdog. He argues that Tate has fought much higher competition and even in losses she's competitive. He notes Avila's wins are over low-level opponents and she has poor takedown defense. He thinks Tate's experience and wrestling will be the difference, and that Avila's layoff and knee injury are concerns. He believes Tate's back class carries her.
Lucrative James leans towards Miesha Tate, citing intangibles such as Julia Avila's layoff after having a baby (possibly via C-section) and her previous gym issues. He believes Tate's grappling can neutralize Avila's striking, and that Avila's path to victory is on the feet. He suggests attacking props like Tate by decision rather than the moneyline.
Tate is a former champion with a strong wrestling base, and she should be able to take Avila down and grind out a win. Avila is aggressive but lacks technical striking and has shown takedown defense issues. Both fighters are returning from long layoffs, but Tate's wrestling advantage and underdog odds make her a good value pick. The fight is expected to get easier for Tate in rounds two and three.
Paul sides with Avila, citing her strength and striking. He thinks Tate's motivation is questionable and that this could be a retirement fight. He notes Avila is the better striker and stronger, but acknowledges Tate's higher level of competition. He has a creeping suspicion that both fighters might retire after this.
The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate as an underdog, noting her competitive fights against top competition like Ketlen Vieira and Lauren Murphy. He believes Julia Avila's inactivity and unimpressive last performance make Tate a live dog. He expects Tate to win by decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Murphy | 0 | 102 of 184 | 55% | 128 of 211 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 85 of 164 | 51% | 121 of 201 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lauren Murphy | 0 | 26 of 48 | 54% | 35 of 57 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 25 of 47 | 53% | 38 of 60 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 | |
| 2 | Lauren Murphy | 0 | 38 of 66 | 57% | 53 of 82 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 32 of 55 | 58% | 46 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 | |
| 3 | Lauren Murphy | 0 | 38 of 70 | 54% | 40 of 72 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 28 of 62 | 45% | 37 of 72 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Murphy | 102 of 184 | 55% | 77 of 154 | 24 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 68 of 142 | 31 of 39 | 3 of 3 |
| Miesha Tate | 85 of 164 | 51% | 61 of 122 | 18 of 34 | 6 of 8 | 67 of 138 | 18 of 26 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lauren Murphy | 26 of 48 | 54% | 17 of 37 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 33 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 25 of 47 | 53% | 12 of 26 | 10 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 34 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Lauren Murphy | 38 of 66 | 57% | 31 of 57 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 52 | 9 of 11 | 3 of 3 |
| Miesha Tate | 32 of 55 | 58% | 27 of 44 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 25 of 46 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Lauren Murphy | 38 of 70 | 54% | 29 of 60 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 57 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 28 of 62 | 45% | 22 of 52 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 26 of 58 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Miesha Tate but is hesitant due to her flyweight debut. He believes Tate's wrestling and grappling will be key, and that she can avoid being bullied by Murphy. He notes Murphy's losses came via grappling dominance, and assumes Tate will be strong at 125. He is unsure about betting.
Big Brady picks Miesha Tate to win by decision. He notes that Tate is the more skilled fighter overall and can get takedowns to control the fight on the mat. He is not impressed by Murphy's wins and thinks the striking will be competitive. He says he would not bet Tate at -220 odds but picks her to win.
Cody picks Tate, citing her wrestling advantage, strength, and experience. He notes that Tate has been preparing for this fight for a long time and has been in great shape. He believes Tate's clinch work and takedowns will be too much for Murphy, and that Murphy's only path is to bully Tate, which he doubts she can do.
Daniel Levi leans Miesha Tate but expresses disinterest in the fight. He notes Tate is past her prime and coming off a loss, while Murphy is coming off a title fight loss and has health issues. He considers it a dog-or-pass situation and won't lay the -220 price on Tate.
Paul leans towards Murphy as an underdog, citing the uncertainty of Tate's weight cut to 125 and the fact that Murphy is a natural 125er. He notes that Murphy has decent striking and could potentially outwork Tate. However, he admits he is not confident and will wait until weigh-ins before betting.
The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate over Lauren Murphy, criticizing Murphy's lack of skill and Tate's experience. He believes Tate will win grappling exchanges and has slightly better striking. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Tate, with Tate winning the first two rounds clearly before slowing down due to weight cut.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 113 of 263 | 42% | 156 of 313 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 122 of 276 | 44% | 145 of 302 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:52 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 14 of 38 | 36% | 18 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 13 of 38 | 34% | 16 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:52 | |
| 2 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 29 of 54 | 53% | 29 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 21 of 54 | 38% | 21 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 20 of 55 | 36% | 28 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 24 of 57 | 42% | 26 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 | |
| 4 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 20 of 43 | 46% | 50 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 31 of 54 | 57% | 44 of 70 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 | |
| 5 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 30 of 73 | 41% | 31 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 33 of 73 | 45% | 38 of 78 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketlen Vieira | 113 of 263 | 42% | 95 of 243 | 14 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 105 of 254 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 122 of 276 | 44% | 52 of 175 | 60 of 88 | 10 of 13 | 110 of 260 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ketlen Vieira | 14 of 38 | 36% | 12 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 13 of 38 | 34% | 8 of 24 | 4 of 11 | 1 of 3 | 13 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ketlen Vieira | 29 of 54 | 53% | 24 of 48 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 21 of 54 | 38% | 14 of 42 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 21 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ketlen Vieira | 20 of 55 | 36% | 18 of 52 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 24 of 57 | 42% | 4 of 28 | 15 of 24 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 54 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Ketlen Vieira | 20 of 43 | 46% | 16 of 39 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 38 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 31 of 54 | 57% | 8 of 27 | 21 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 45 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Ketlen Vieira | 30 of 73 | 41% | 25 of 68 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 71 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 33 of 73 | 45% | 18 of 54 | 14 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 70 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
At long last, we have reached the main event. It’s been a journey tonight. Vieira (11-2, 5-2 UFC) will try to get back in the win column against former champ Tate (19-7, 6-4 UFC). The cage commander for this final fight of the night is referee Jason Herzog, and both with an eye on a crack at the bantamweight belt in the future touch hands to start things out. Vieira captures the center of the cage in the early going, but they keep a very safe range from the other to not land punches or kicks. They take turns following the other, until Vieira sits down with a right hand to smack Tate in the face. Tate tries to jab the body a few times, and Vieira is there to pop her with a left hand over the top. Tate swings, misses, and gets countered by the Brazilian. Vieira sticks out a crisp jab, and her range is giving Tate pause at how to get in on her. When Tate jumps forward into a one-two, Vieira swats it out of the way and dances back when Tate aims a kick at her leg. Tate appears jittery as she hops back and forth to try to get in on Vieira, throwing a single front kick to the body. Vieira tags Tate with a right hand when Tate closes in on her, and the former champ lands a pair of successful punches. Caught celebrating her work a little too long, Vieira counters her with heavier blows before Tate can escape. The distance between the two is vast, and Tate resorts to staggering and stutter-stepping her way in. Tate chases Vieira down and slugs her in the face with a combination, and when Vieira tries to answer her with strikes of her own, Tate ties her up and presses her into the wall. Although Vieira separates, Tate knees her once to the body. Tate ducks a punch combination to push Vieira back into the wire, and like before, Vieira is able to separate without issue. From a distance, Vieira shoots in for a takedown, and Tate is able to stop it from succeeding. They end the round in an awkward position with Tate’s hand on her foe’s backside.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Round 2
A tense exchange begins the second round, and Vieira lands cleanly on Tate’s left eye, forcing some reddening and immediate swelling. Tate pays it no mind as she kicks Vieira in the head, but it is only a glancing blow as the Brazilian rolls with it. Tate keeps reaching out to try to get in on her opponent, and she eats a Vieira punch so that she can score a solid right hand. The former champ plants the fall of her foot on Vieira’s torso, interrupting Vieira from landing a strike. Tate winds up with a stiff right hand, nailing Vieira and forcing her to reel. In response, Vieira scores a left hand down the pipe. Vieira chops at the leg, and they both start trading heavy leather in front of one another. Tate lands, and Vieira is stuck countering instead of leading the exchanges. This allows Tate to land on her first before replying. Tate connects with a big kick to Vieira’s face, and she sees that it has done some damage as she follows it with a chain of punches. Tate strings together a few one-twos, and Vieira shakes it off and lands her own thudding left hook on the side of Tate’s head. The woman formerly known as “Takedown” attempts one in the open cage, and Vieira stuffs it without issue. She tries again, and Vieira stops that one as well and separates. Tate walks Vieira down with kicks and punches, while not appearing too worried about the single counters that come back at her. Tate scores with a pair of clean right hands, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Round 3
Tate comes out firing to start off the second round, surprising the Brazilian early with a short blitz of blows. Backing away before the counters follow suit, Tate changes things up with an inside leg kick and then one on the outside. Vieira leans into a left hand, and after a lull in the action, Tate reaches out with a left hand to stop a punch and she pokes Vieira square in the eyeball. Herzog acknowledges this and brings in the doctor, and after a minute to clear things out, Vieira is ready to go again. Tate wants to capitalize on this accident by chasing Vieira down with jabs and follow-up right hands. Tate keeps a low stance, and she punches the body while Vieira is sitting firmly on counters. Tate punches, slips the response and jabs out again. Tate gives chase, and a big right hand gets caught under Vieira’s armpit. Tate lands a right, tries to clinch up and eats a short right hand for her effort. Tate goes up high with a kick, and when it collides off of Vieira’s guard, Vieira aims a right hand down the middle. Tate advances, and Vieira swings a pair of looping hooks to keep Tate honest. The former champ lands a single strike, while Vieira’s prepared counter of an uppercut and a right hand knocks Tate back. The Brazilian lands cleanly in another exchange, forcing Tate to change levels and pursue a takedown. Vieira defends it well and separates without going down to her knees. When Vieira gets up, Tate meets her outstretched leg with a kick, and Vieira lances her with a right hand in a sharp retort. Tate rushes forward to clinch her up to end the round, and she holds on to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Round 4
They meet and touch gloves in the center of the cage to initiate the championship rounds. Tate starts off aggressively, chasing her opponent down and landing punches. Tate clubs her opponent with a crisp right hand, and she escapes when Vieira sets up a counter. The Brazilian lands a few punches from a distance, and they trade heavily suddenly. Tate mixes things up with a takedown attempt, and she finally hits it and gets Vieira down. As “Fenomeno” stands up, Tate takes her back and looks to hit a mat return by tripping Vieira down. Clinched up, Tate gives up on the takedown entry so that she can land short strikes to the body and head. Staying tight keeps Tate away from eating any counters, and she presses her full body weight on her opponent that had never before fought beyond the third round. Vieira grits her teeth and pushes Tate away, and she starts lunging out with jabs. Tate marks her up with a big punch, and Vieira blasts her right back. Both women wear it well, and Tate kicks Vieira in the body from afar. Tate lands a few punches before coming in to clinch, and she knees Vieira in the body once. Vieira gives several punches back to the midsection, until Tate has had enough of that and pushes away. A Tate leg kick is met with a straight left hand, and Vieira catches Tate coming in with a string of punches. Vieira loads up on a right hand, and she elbows Tate when Tate tries to clinch. Vieira welcomes the clinch again in the open cage, as she repeatedly punches Tate in the side as she did before. Tate holds on tight with a clinch, and she releases a knee to the head. Another knee scores for the former champ, who ends the round in the Thai clinch.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Round 5
The bantamweights touch hands and then come in to hug to commence the last round. Vieira lets her hands go when they start fighting, and she connects cleanly with power punches as Tate looks to be safe. They come together in a clinch, and Tate works the body before Vieira separates. Vieira tags her opponent with an uppercut and a left hand, and Tate is forced to back off and gather her thoughts. When she does, the ex-champ kicks the body and then tries to get a knee off to the chest. Tate kicks the body, but Vieira is there to bang with her as she starts throwing hard. As Tate backs off, Vieira leans on a long jab, and she busts Tate’s nose open with a powerful knee and a few punches up top. Tate misses on one-twos as Vieira appears to be the fresher, more composed woman right now. Tate springs back and forth, jabbing out but not throwing nearly as much as she did before the nose got cracked. Tate sneaks a right hand over the top, but Vieira throws three back at her that are much heavier. They trade single jabs, and Tate steps forward into a one-two that knocks Vieira back. Vieira returns fire with jabs that continue to pound into Tate’s bloodied nose, and the former champion’s face has transformed into a crimson mask. Hardly recognizable, Tate does not care, as she continues to swing punches while Vieira is tight and crisp with her boxing. The jabs have shut Tate’s left eye as well as making her nose bleed furiously, and Tate marches on and kicks her in the side. Tate continues to pour it on as Vieira stays on her bicycle, successfully scoring with laser-accurate strikes that barely register for Tate. The fight comes to an end after 25 minutes of action, and it could be anyone’s guess who wins this fight based on how close most of the rounds were. UFC Fight Night 198, and a consecutive weekend stretch of 10 UFC cards, comes to an end with an event that brought 10 decisions in 11 bouts. We all could use a week off, and we will have it. When the UFC returns in December, it will be on ESPN for U.S. audiences with a barnburner of a main event between Rob Font and Jose Aldo. We will be here for it, and we hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (48-47 Vieira)
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (48-47 Vieira)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (48-47 Tate)
The Official Result
Ketlen Vieira def. Miesha Tate via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
Angelo picks Ketlen Vieira, citing her power, size, and solid takedown defense (92%). He notes Miesha Tate's striking is poor and she relies on takedowns, but Vieira has stuffed takedowns from Olympic wrestler Sarah McMahon. He expects Vieira to win by decision or late stoppage, and placed a moneyline bet at even money (+100). He also mentions live betting opportunities.
Big Brady picks Miesha Tate to win by late finish (4th or 5th round). He notes that Ketlen Vieira has never fought five rounds and tends to slow down in the third round, as seen in fights against Eubanks and Kanutsukai. He believes Tate's improved striking and wrestling will allow her to survive early and take over as Vieira fades. He sees a late stoppage as very live.
Cody believes Miesha Tate is undervalued as a slight underdog. He points to Tate's championship pedigree, improved striking, and excellent conditioning for a five-round fight. He highlights Ketlen Vieira's history of gassing in the third round of her fights, including against Yana Kunitskaya where she was out-struck 44-7. Cody argues that Tate's wrestling is good enough to stuff takedowns and that if the fight stays standing, Tate has the advantage. He expects Tate to take over in rounds four and five as Vieira fades.
Daniel Levi picks Ketlen Vieira despite her history of mental lapses and cardio issues. He notes that Vieira has superior skills across the board, including judo and power, but worries about her hitting a wall in later rounds. He believes Miesha Tate is stiff and slow, and that Vieira has no pressure on her in this fight. However, he acknowledges Tate's toughness and comeback ability, making this a hesitant pick.
Lock sees this as a classic early Vera vs late Tate fight. He thinks Vera gasses badly after round two, and Tate will take over with takedowns and top control. He notes Tate is hunting a finish and might get it late. Lock likes the under 4.5 rounds at +140 and Tate inside the distance at +375. He also sprinkled Tate round 4 and round 5 props.
Paul agrees with Cody's assessment, noting that Vieira's gas tank is a major concern, especially in a five-round fight. He references the Yana Kunitskaya fight where Vieira missed weight and gassed hard at the end of round three. Paul believes that if Vieira cannot put Tate away early, Tate will take over late. He also mentions that this could be a good live bet opportunity if Vieira slows down in round three and Tate is still available at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate over Ketlen Vieira. He notes that Vieira slows down in later rounds, as seen against Yana Kunitskaya and Sijara Eubanks. He highlights Tate's championship experience, composure, and conditioning. He expects a stalemate on the feet early, but Tate to win scrambles and land ground and pound in the later rounds, finishing with a fourth-round TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 25 of 64 | 39% | 48 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marion Reneau | 0 | 65 of 120 | 54% | 110 of 183 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 5:52 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 15 of 37 | 40% | 30 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marion Reneau | 0 | 25 of 43 | 58% | 34 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:36 | |
| 2 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 16 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marion Reneau | 0 | 22 of 40 | 55% | 45 of 64 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:01 | |
| 3 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marion Reneau | 0 | 18 of 37 | 48% | 31 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miesha Tate | 25 of 64 | 39% | 16 of 54 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 49 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 6 |
| Marion Reneau | 65 of 120 | 54% | 44 of 93 | 16 of 20 | 5 of 7 | 32 of 74 | 8 of 8 | 25 of 38 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miesha Tate | 15 of 37 | 40% | 8 of 29 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 26 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 3 |
| Marion Reneau | 25 of 43 | 58% | 15 of 31 | 9 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 37 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Miesha Tate | 8 of 18 | 44% | 7 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
| Marion Reneau | 22 of 40 | 55% | 15 of 29 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 15 | |
| 3 | Miesha Tate | 2 of 9 | 22% | 1 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Marion Reneau | 18 of 37 | 48% | 14 of 33 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 22 |
Cody is confident in Miesha Tate despite the five-year layoff, citing her excellent physical shape and the fact that Marion Reneau is on a four-fight losing streak and has announced her retirement. He believes Tate's wrestling and grappling will be the difference, and he is surprised the odds are not wider. He acknowledges the red flags but thinks the matchup is favorable.
Paul expresses significant doubts about Miesha Tate's return, citing the five-year layoff, her split with longtime coach Brian Caraway, and her lackluster performances before retiring. He notes that Marion Reneau is durable and has experience, but ultimately he has no confidence in either fighter and passes on betting the fight. He does not make a clear pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 21 of 65 | 32% | 48 of 93 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 4:26 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 43 of 77 | 55% | 111 of 156 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 6:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 7 of 29 | 24% | 12 of 34 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 26 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 24 of 37 | 64% | 55 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:57 | |
| 3 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 10 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 42 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 21 of 65 | 32% | 8 of 34 | 11 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 47 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 43 of 77 | 55% | 31 of 65 | 8 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 46 | 13 of 15 | 11 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 7 of 29 | 24% | 2 of 13 | 3 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 8 of 21 | 38% | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 13 of 32 | 40% | 5 of 17 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 14 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 24 of 37 | 64% | 16 of 29 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 22 | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Raquel Pennington | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 11 of 19 | 57% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 16 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Nunes | 0 | 3 of 15 | 20% | 3 of 15 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 40 of 63 | 63% | 40 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Nunes | 0 | 3 of 15 | 20% | 3 of 15 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 40 of 63 | 63% | 40 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Nunes | 3 of 15 | 20% | 2 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 40 of 63 | 63% | 35 of 54 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 4 | 30 of 50 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Nunes | 3 of 15 | 20% | 2 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 40 of 63 | 63% | 35 of 54 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 4 | 30 of 50 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 8 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 59 of 142 | 41% | 68 of 151 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 40 of 104 | 38% | 65 of 132 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 | 0 | 5:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 14 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 7 of 27 | 25% | 7 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 29 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:30 | |
| 3 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 13 of 41 | 31% | 13 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 7 of 23 | 30% | 8 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 14 of 40 | 35% | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 7 of 22 | 31% | 12 of 29 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 5 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 18 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 9 of 16 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 0:35 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miesha Tate | 59 of 142 | 41% | 35 of 109 | 16 of 21 | 8 of 12 | 57 of 139 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 40 of 104 | 38% | 29 of 83 | 7 of 12 | 4 of 9 | 26 of 88 | 4 of 4 | 10 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miesha Tate | 14 of 28 | 50% | 8 of 19 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 4 | 14 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 7 of 27 | 25% | 7 of 23 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 6 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Miesha Tate | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 11 of 18 | 61% | 10 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 12 | |
| 3 | Miesha Tate | 13 of 41 | 31% | 9 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 7 of 23 | 30% | 3 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 7 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Miesha Tate | 14 of 40 | 35% | 8 of 30 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 7 of 22 | 31% | 6 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Miesha Tate | 17 of 31 | 54% | 10 of 24 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 8 of 14 | 57% | 3 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Holly Holm - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayla Harrison | 0 | 2 of 12 | 16% | 7 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 51 of 71 | 71% | 68 of 91 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 4:51 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kayla Harrison | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 46 of 62 | 74% | 56 of 73 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:49 | |
| 2 | Kayla Harrison | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 12 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayla Harrison | 2 of 12 | 16% | 1 of 9 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Holly Holm | 51 of 71 | 71% | 46 of 66 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 42 of 53 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kayla Harrison | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Holly Holm | 46 of 62 | 74% | 43 of 59 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 41 of 51 | |
| 2 | Kayla Harrison | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 5 of 9 | 55% | 3 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
Angelo picks Kayla Harrison despite weight cut concerns, believing her Judo and pressure will overwhelm Holm. He notes Holm's best chance is to stay on the outside and make it boring, but Harrison will eat a shot and get the takedown. He will watch weigh-ins before betting.
Cody acknowledges the weight cut concerns but believes Harrison will be strong and physical if she makes weight. He notes Holly Holm looked old in her last fight against Macy Chiasson, losing mobility and the ability to dart in and out. Harrison's wrestling and pressure should allow her to pin Holm against the cage and take her down. Cody thinks Holm at 42 is not what she used to be, and the UFC is setting up Harrison for a title shot. He picks Harrison to get the win, likely by controlling the fight on the ground.
Connor picks Harrison, noting that Holm's game is busted and her body seems broken. He acknowledges that Harrison has not faced elite competition but believes Holm's lack of functional tools outside the clinch will be her downfall. Connor expects Harrison to take Holm down and control the fight, though he admits Holm could stall in the clinch.
Daniel Vreeland picks Kayla Harrison, citing her superior grappling and physicality. He believes Harrison will take Holm down and control her on the ground, despite concerns about Harrison's weight cut and striking. Vreeland notes that Holm's output is low and she may clinch, which plays into Harrison's judo.
Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He expresses excitement to see Kayla Harrison in the UFC but criticizes the matchup, saying Holly Holm is on the decline at 42 years old and not active. He would have preferred a different opponent like Julianna Peña or Miesha Tate, but understands the decision due to lack of contenders. He does not state who he thinks will win.
Harrison's grappling will be too much for Holm. She will take the fight to the ground, smash Holm with elbows from top position, and eventually open a submission opportunity for a dominant finish. However, wait for weigh-ins due to Harrison's weight cut concerns.
Paul is hesitant due to the weight cut and Harrison's cardio issues in the past. He notes that if Harrison tires from a bad weight cut, Holm could take over. However, he acknowledges Holm's recent decline and thinks Harrison's wrestling will be effective early. Paul calls it a clear dogger pass, but ultimately picks Harrison because Holm's mobility has diminished and Harrison should be able to control the fight. He mentions the CF dot model (taking the big plus money on women's underdog) but decides to go with the favorite.
The MMA Guru picks Kayla Harrison to dominate Holly Holm via decision. He highlights Harrison's superior wrestling and physicality, predicting she will take Holm down and control her on the ground. He questions Holm's motivation at age 42 and believes Harrison's strength and focus will be decisive.
Zane picks Harrison confidently, believing her clinch judo game will be too much for Holm. He notes that Holm is old (42), slow, and cannot pull the trigger anymore. Zane argues that Holm's only functional part of her game is the clinch, but she lacks the foot speed to keep Harrison at bay. He expects a dominant grappling performance from Harrison.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holly Holm | 0 | 27 of 39 | 69% | 50 of 70 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:05 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 0 | 20 of 37 | 54% | 31 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holly Holm | 0 | 26 of 38 | 68% | 49 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:42 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 0 | 19 of 33 | 57% | 30 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Holly Holm | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holly Holm | 27 of 39 | 69% | 15 of 24 | 10 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 21 of 31 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 20 of 37 | 54% | 9 of 21 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 6 | 13 of 28 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holly Holm | 26 of 38 | 68% | 15 of 24 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 20 of 30 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 19 of 33 | 57% | 8 of 17 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 24 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Holly Holm | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holm (-170), Bueno Silva (+145)
Round 1
Likely the lone fight on the card with immediate championship implications, former champ Holm (15-6, 8-6 UFC) will look to send a message to the matchmakers that she is still at the top of her game at 41 years of age. Silva (10-2-1, 5-2-1 UFC), 10 years younger, is gunning for an upset, with upwards of five rounds to do just that. Needing no further introduction, referee Keith Peterson prepares for the bantamweight main attraction, one that opens up with a quick tap of gloves and not a lick of nonsense. Silva advances slowly, and Holm races at her and throws punches to back her away. Silva kicks the lead calf twice, and Holm gives her a scare with a head kick. Holm is moving quickly on the outside, and she sticks Silva twice with right hands before changing levels for a single. Silva stands up and elbows her foe in the face, leading Holm to let it go and squeeze against her in the clinch. They trade short knees on the inside to little effect, and Holm settles down to impose her weight and will. Holm pushes off and gets away without a strike on the break, and she lifts her leg up to check a body kick. Holm moves quickly to get Silva’s attention with a few punches, and she is out of the way before a counter finds its mark. Holm uses her momentum to clinch Silva up again. When they stall out, Holm times an elbow to break away, and she separates to back off only to lunge forward with a few punches. Silva wings an elbow that slams into Holm’s temple, and Holm has to shake it off and retreat. Silva chases with a few punches, and Holm kicks her way out of a clinch and starts working the body with her feet. Silva comes up short on a front kick, and Holm bounces around before Silva comes towards her. Holm dodges a spinning strike, and she takes a left on the chin and a subsequent right hand to stun Holm. The former champ shoots in for a double after getting her bell rung, and the Brazilian keeps her back to the cage wall and even lifts up a knee to hit Holm during the takedown. Silva motions to Peterson to get between them, but the round ends with Holm hanging on tight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Round 2
Holm paces back and forth in her corner before they start fighting again, and Silva takes the center of the cage and gets kicked in the midsection on the way in. Cutting Holm off, Silva pops Holm with a right hook. The former kickboxer moves forward to clinch, and Silva slides her arm under the chin with her back leaned against the wall.
As Holm leans over for a potential takedown, Silva connects her arm to set up a ninja choke that is a modified, dangerous guillotine choke. Holm wriggles but is shocked at this situation, as she is trapped and cannot come up with a way to get out of the bad spot. “Sheetara” leans forward to press her chest down and put more pressure on the neck and submission grip, and she knows she has set the hook. Before she goes out, Holm frantically taps out on the side of her opponent.
Peterson rushes to the other side to see if there had been a tap, and Silva releases the grip before Peterson is able to get between them and separate them. This is a massive feather in the cap for the Brazilian, who is only the second fighter to ever submit Holm – and the first, Miesha Tate, did so to win the bantamweight title. The victorious Silva is the only betting underdog to have pulled off a win tonight, and she made a real statement and stamped herself as an instant contender for the champ-less division. In her post-fight interview, Silva speaks about her mental health issues, thanking those that helped her through the worst days that are behind her. Calling for a title shot, it could be entirely possible that “Sheetara” punched her ticket for that opportunity, as the line of contenders is hardly a determined one. If she gets the next crack at the 135-pound title, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Mayra Bueno Silva def. Holly Holm R2 0:38 via Submission (Ninja Choke)
Angelo is confident in Holly Holm, calling her the more technical striker with better takedown defense and offense. He notes Silva's losses have come via wrestling, and Holly can do the same. He thinks Holly can hold Silva against the cage, get takedowns, and avoid submissions. He placed a one-unit moneyline bet at minus 160. He disagrees with a DM suggesting Silva should be the favorite, stating Holly has earned the right to be favored.
Big Brady picks Holly Holm but with hesitation, as he sees two clear outcomes: Holm dominating on the feet or Bueno Silva catching an armbar. He notes Holm is 41 but still looks good, and if she fights smart and keeps it standing, she should cruise. However, he worries Holm might take Bueno Silva down and get submitted. He is not betting this fight due to the risk.
Cody picks Holly Holm, comparing her to a Rolex watch that keeps going. He highlights her high ring IQ, ability to adapt, and wrestling improvements. He notes Silva's takedown defense issues and that Holm can mix in takedowns. He expects Holm to Matador from the outside, mix in takedowns, and win a decision, possibly winning championship rounds.
James is leaning towards Mayra Bueno Silva as an underdog. He notes that Holly Holm is 41 years old and may be declining, while Bueno Silva has strong submission skills and finishing ability. He mentions that many respected bettors are on Holm, but he is skeptical of her grappling and thinks Bueno Silva could submit her. He plans to watch more tape but is leaning towards the dog side.
The host believes Holm's veteran savvy and clinch-heavy approach will keep her safe from Bueno Silva's submissions. He expects Holm to mix striking, clinch, and grappling to cruise to a decision win. He notes Bueno Silva's lack of urgency and low volume as weaknesses.
Paul picks Holly Holm, citing her technical striking, experience, and ability to win at range. He expects a slow, tepid fight with Holm winning a decision, similar to the Vieira fight. He notes the line moved from -145 to -180, so he missed his betting window. He also mentions the PrizePicks over 90.5 significant strikes is tight and won't play it.
The MMA Guru picks Holly Holm over Mayra Bueno Silva, noting Holm's activity, athleticism, and ability to control fights against the cage. He questions Silva's cardio for a five-round fight and doubts her submission threat, believing Holm can dictate where the fight takes place. He predicts Holm wins by decision or late stoppage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holly Holm | 0 | 32 of 63 | 50% | 105 of 163 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 9:49 |
| Yana Santos | 0 | 21 of 46 | 45% | 120 of 185 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holly Holm | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 24 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:41 |
| Yana Santos | 0 | 12 of 25 | 48% | 50 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:19 | |
| 2 | Holly Holm | 0 | 16 of 33 | 48% | 43 of 67 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:09 |
| Yana Santos | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 38 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Holly Holm | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 38 of 60 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:59 |
| Yana Santos | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 32 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holly Holm | 32 of 63 | 50% | 23 of 49 | 8 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 33 | 4 of 5 | 14 of 25 |
| Yana Santos | 21 of 46 | 45% | 3 of 22 | 8 of 9 | 10 of 15 | 15 of 37 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holly Holm | 7 of 16 | 43% | 5 of 12 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Yana Santos | 12 of 25 | 48% | 2 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 9 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Holly Holm | 16 of 33 | 48% | 12 of 27 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 12 of 21 |
| Yana Santos | 7 of 12 | 58% | 1 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Holly Holm | 9 of 14 | 64% | 6 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 4 |
| Yana Santos | 2 of 9 | 22% | 0 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Holm, calling her one of his two most confident picks on the card. He notes that Holm is a technical striker with great footwork and that her age (41) matters less because she doesn't rely on speed or take much damage. He points out that Santos lacks power, which plays into Holm's style, and that Santos is coming off a two-year layoff after having a baby. He believes Holm should dominate and that the line should be wider, but he is wary of betting women's MMA due to past upsets.
Big Brady picks Holly Holm but with low confidence, citing red flags on both sides. He notes Holm's age (41) and decline in her last fight against Ketlen Vieira, as well as a layoff. On Santos' side, she just had a baby and got married, which Brady views as potential distractions. He expects Holm to win by holding Santos against the cage for three rounds in a boring decision, but calls the fight a 'big pass' for betting.
Cody picks Holly Holm but is hesitant due to her age and potential decline. He notes Holm has shifted to a wrestling-heavy game plan and is effective in the clinch. He believes Holm should win but doesn't like the -250 moneyline, preferring Holm by decision at -115. He acknowledges the Pat Mayo theory of betting women's underdogs but still leans Holm. He mentions Holm's durability and Santos coming off a KO loss.
Connor picks Holm because Santos is fragile and tends to revert to clinching when pressured, which plays into Holm's strength. He notes Holm's striking has slowed but she remains strong in the clinch and hard to hurt. He expects Holm to hold Santos on the fence for three rounds and win a decision.
Jacob also picks Holm, agreeing she is the better fighter everywhere. He notes that Holm is not a finisher and the fight likely goes to decision, which could be risky with Texas judges. He mentions that Santos might be aggressive and that the optics could favor her if she pressures, but he thinks Holm should dominate. He says he found plus money on Holm and has a bet on her, but does not specify the exact prop.
The host expects another veteran performance from Holly Holm, believing she will grind against Yana Santos against the cage, utilize her superior strength and power, drag the fight to the ground, and do good work from top position. He notes that Santos is coming off a layoff after having a baby, which adds uncertainty. He thinks Holm's physical fitness and longevity are exceptional for her age, and that strength advantage will be key. He predicts Holm wins by decision.
The Guru picks Holm, citing her recent wins over Aldana and Pennington, and notes that Santos hasn't fought since 2021 and had a child. He expects Holm to use her athleticism and cage control to win a decision, though he admits it's a sad prediction.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Holm's clinch strength hasn't decayed and Santos lacks confidence to avoid a Holm fight. He doubts Santos can win unless she proves she can overcome Holm's physicality. He sees it as a fight where Holm's strength and clinch work will be decisive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 96 of 157 | 61% | 188 of 263 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 10:03 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 85 of 151 | 56% | 122 of 190 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 | 0 | 1:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 33 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:36 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 19 of 22 | 86% | 40 of 45 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 33 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:46 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 17 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:56 | |
| 3 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 42 of 56 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:50 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 23 of 37 | 62% | 27 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 4 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 37 of 68 | 54% | 37 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 23 of 51 | 45% | 23 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 21 of 29 | 72% | 43 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketlen Vieira | 96 of 157 | 61% | 26 of 79 | 34 of 40 | 36 of 38 | 76 of 133 | 20 of 24 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 85 of 151 | 56% | 49 of 109 | 29 of 34 | 7 of 8 | 49 of 110 | 32 of 37 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ketlen Vieira | 6 of 9 | 66% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 19 of 22 | 86% | 3 of 5 | 14 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 6 | 14 of 14 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Ketlen Vieira | 14 of 21 | 66% | 6 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 8 of 15 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 10 of 22 | 45% | 7 of 15 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 15 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Ketlen Vieira | 18 of 30 | 60% | 4 of 13 | 9 of 11 | 5 of 6 | 13 of 25 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 23 of 37 | 62% | 11 of 25 | 11 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 26 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Ketlen Vieira | 37 of 68 | 54% | 5 of 33 | 16 of 18 | 16 of 17 | 36 of 66 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 23 of 51 | 45% | 19 of 46 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 47 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Ketlen Vieira | 21 of 29 | 72% | 9 of 16 | 7 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 22 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 10 of 19 | 52% | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holm (-240), Vieira (+195)
Round 1
Jason Herzog will oversee the evening’s bantamweight headliner. After having multiple fights fall through, Holm makes her first appearance since a dominant win over Irene Aldana in October 2020. Vieira, meanwhile, will attempt to add another notable name to her ledger after besting ex-champ Miesha Tate this past November. Holm opens up with an outside leg kick and Vieira answers with a heavy inside leg kick. Holm with a side kick to the knee of her opponent. Vieira closes distance and shoves Holm into the fence. The Jackson-Wink product quickly reverses position. Vieira attempts to execute a throw and then lands a few punches as Holm scrambles up. They remain in the clinch, with Holm in control, pushing Vieira into the fence. Holm with a few short punches to the head. Holm defends a trip and lands a few punches. Holm is controlling the clinch and appears to be the stronger fighter, but there’s not a ton of action in this position. They trade knees and Holm drops for a single leg. Holm gives up on it and continues to grind away against the fence. Holm lands a few knees to the thigh of Vieira, who responds with knees of her own to the midsection. Holm defends another throw and the round ends in the clinch.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Round 2
Holm begins with an outside leg kick. Vieira just misses the mark on a head kick. The Brazilian moves forward and fires off a straight right. Vieira closes the distance behind a combination, but Holm circles out. Another leg kick for Holm. Holm with a leg kick yet again, and she moves away from Vieira’s counter. Holm punches her way into the clinch and Vieira executes a nice hip toss. Holm immediately slides to the fence and posts an arm before standing. Vieira shoves Holm into the cage, but “The Preacher’s Daughter” turns off the cage and separates. Holm with a standing side kick to the head. Holm gets in on a single leg. Vieira hops on one leg while attacking a guillotine. Holm clings to the leg and atttempts to drag Viera to the mat. She leaves her neck exposed and Vieira briefly has a really tight standing rear-naked choke. Somehow Holm, with her face red and eyes bulging, turns out of it and shoves Vieira into the cage. Holm fires off a hard elbow from the clinch. Another elbow for Holm with time winding down. The round ends with Holm controlling position against the fence.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tudor Leonte scores the round:10-9 Vieira
Round 3
Holm goes back to the outside leg kick and Vieira answers with an inside low kick. Holm with a punching flurry, but Vieira counters her. Moments later, a front kick to the face from Vieira appears to catch Holm, who keeps her bearings and turns her foe into the cage. Holm is content to grind away from the clinch, but Vieira breaks free. Holm with an outside leg kick followed by a side kick to the midsection. Holm goes with a high kick, but Vieira blocks it. A right hand from Vieira lands flush, so Holm punches her way into the clinch. Vieira does a good job landing a few knees up the middle with her back to the cage. Holm continues to control head positioning with an underhook while occasionally flurrying with left hands. Holm with more short left hands to the head, and Vieira breaks free and lands a solid right hand. Holm lands a standing side kick but Vieira marches forward and sticks a stiff right nad to the chin. Holm ends the frame with a few knees in close quarters.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Round 4
Holm moves forward behind a combination, but Vieira answers with a clean right hand. Holm attempts to close the distance, but she’s stung by a right nand from Vieira. A front kick to the face lands for Holm but Vieira eats it without issue. Holm rushes forward but Vieira counters with the more significant punches. Vieira tags Holm with a combination. They briefly clinch and Vieira sticks another right. Holm’s blitzes aren’t effectively, but a standing side kick puts Vieira on her seat and Holm follows with a body kick when she stands. Another Vieira right hand catches Holm coming in. Holm forces the clinch but eats an uppercut in the process. Vieira is able to separate and circle away. A straight right snaps Holm’s head back. It’s another close round, but Vieira counters effectively with a punching combination yet again as Holm wades forward. Holm continues to throw a variety of kicks, but the punching exchanges are going Vieira’s way. Holm with another furious flurry before the bantamweights clinch at the end of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Tudor Leonte scores the round:10-9 Holm
Round 5
The combatants hug to start the round. Vieira gets Holm’s attention with a head kick. They clinch, and Vieira breaks with a spinning elbow. Holm with a big left hand into the clinch. Vieira breaks free and Holm attacks with a front kick to the body. Holm forces the clinch again and the fighters stall before they reach the fence. Holm lands a short elbow on the break. Vieira counters a kick with a solid right hand. Holm forces the clinch and shoves Vieira into the cage, where she lands a knee. Vieira separates, but Holm lands a pair of nice front kicks to the face. A glancing head kick also finds the mark for Holm. Vieira counters an onrushing Holm with an uppercut. Holm changes levels and grabs a single leg. She shoves Vieira into the fence with less than 2:00 to go. Holm lets go of the leg but maintains the underhook. A short right hook lands for Holm on the break. Holm with a kick to the body and they clinch again. Holm shoves Vieira back into the fence. On the break, Holm with a flurry of punches. Holm stuffs an ensuing takedown from Vieira, turns her foe into the fence and lands several short punches. Holm drops for a takedown, can't get it and then lands some punches to the thigh before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holm (48-47 Holm)
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Holm (48-47 Holm)
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Holm (48-47 Holm)
The Official Result
Ketlen Vieira def. Holly Holm via Split Decision (47-48, 48-47, 48-47) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Holly Holm because she can turn the fight into a kickboxing match and has excellent takedown defense. He notes that Vieira's charging forward plays into Holm's counter-striking. He doesn't factor in the layoff because Holm has never been an active fighter. He expects a decision win for Holm and suggests a prop bet on Holm by decision.
Big Brady picks Holly Holm to win by decision, citing her superior striking, cardio, and competition level. He notes Vieira has a grappling advantage but doubts she can out-grapple Holm for five rounds. His only concern is Holm's age (40) and 19-month layoff, but he believes if she looks like she did against Irene Aldana, she should cruise. He sees no path to victory for Vieira unless Holm is old.
Cody believes Holly Holm's striking volume, improved wrestling, and five-round experience will be too much for Ketlen Vieira. He notes Holm's lateral mobility and speed, and that Vieira has been outstruck in most of her UFC fights. He is confident Holm wins but finds the -240 moneyline a bit steep, preferring to bet Holm by decision or late-round finishes.
The host discusses the main event but does not make a clear pick. He mentions Holly Holm's age and questions whether she can still compete at 40, but does not state a preference. He also notes that the fight could go to decision and includes it in a totals parlay (over 4.5 rounds), but does not pick a winner.
Paul likes Holly Holm to win but is hesitant due to the -240 price and Holm's age (40). He notes Holm's striking and improved wrestling, but says he doesn't love the moneyline. He is interested in sprinkling on Holm round 4 (+2500) and round 5 (+3000) if Vieira shows up like she did against Yana Kunitskaya, as Holm could finish her late.
The MMA Guru picks Holly Holm, citing her superior striking, conditioning, and athleticism. He thinks Ketlen Vieira lacks KO power and will struggle to get the fight to the ground. He predicts Holm will lose the first round but win the next four via decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holly Holm | 0 | 154 of 301 | 51% | 187 of 342 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 5:16 |
| Irene Aldana | 0 | 69 of 185 | 37% | 92 of 210 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holly Holm | 0 | 21 of 50 | 42% | 31 of 60 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Irene Aldana | 0 | 12 of 31 | 38% | 13 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Holly Holm | 0 | 23 of 47 | 48% | 27 of 53 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Irene Aldana | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 17 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Holly Holm | 0 | 23 of 51 | 45% | 37 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:06 |
| Irene Aldana | 0 | 9 of 25 | 36% | 11 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 4 | Holly Holm | 0 | 39 of 58 | 67% | 39 of 60 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Irene Aldana | 0 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Holly Holm | 0 | 48 of 95 | 50% | 53 of 102 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Irene Aldana | 0 | 18 of 55 | 32% | 32 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holly Holm | 154 of 301 | 51% | 81 of 214 | 56 of 68 | 17 of 19 | 140 of 272 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 28 |
| Irene Aldana | 69 of 185 | 37% | 38 of 128 | 12 of 30 | 19 of 27 | 65 of 181 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holly Holm | 21 of 50 | 42% | 8 of 33 | 8 of 10 | 5 of 7 | 21 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Irene Aldana | 12 of 31 | 38% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 4 | 8 of 13 | 12 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Holly Holm | 23 of 47 | 48% | 10 of 31 | 8 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Irene Aldana | 12 of 32 | 37% | 5 of 21 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 7 | 10 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Holly Holm | 23 of 51 | 45% | 12 of 38 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 24 |
| Irene Aldana | 9 of 25 | 36% | 4 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Holly Holm | 39 of 58 | 67% | 14 of 28 | 19 of 24 | 6 of 6 | 37 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Irene Aldana | 18 of 42 | 42% | 13 of 34 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Holly Holm | 48 of 95 | 50% | 37 of 84 | 11 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 47 of 94 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Irene Aldana | 18 of 55 | 32% | 13 of 40 | 3 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 18 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady leans towards Irene Aldana to win by decision. He cites Aldana's higher output and youth, while Holm is older and slowing down. He thinks Holm will try to grind against the cage, but when at range, Aldana has the edge. He expects a close, boring fight.
Daniel picks Irene Aldana, citing her upward trajectory, higher output, and power. He notes that Holly Holm is slowing down and relies on stalling against the fence, but Aldana has the tools to win a decision by outworking her. He acknowledges Aldana's past close losses and chinny moments but believes she is the younger, hungrier fighter with more power on the feet.
The host picks Holly Holm to win by decision, emphasizing her veteran experience, strength, and ability to make fights ugly by clinching and using takedowns. He believes Aldana's power is a threat but that Holm's fight IQ and durability will carry her over five rounds.
The Guru picks Irene Aldana, praising her stand-up, pace, and improvement. He argues that Holm's recent wins are unimpressive and that Aldana's loss to Pennington was close. He believes Aldana will work the body and possibly get a second-round TKO, noting her training with Alexa Grasso and her ability to push a high pace.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holly Holm | 0 | 30 of 62 | 48% | 81 of 129 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 7:16 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 38 of 78 | 48% | 55 of 95 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holly Holm | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 26 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:48 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 7 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 | |
| 2 | Holly Holm | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 32 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 19 of 27 | 70% | 28 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 3 | Holly Holm | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 23 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 14 of 37 | 37% | 20 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holly Holm | 30 of 62 | 48% | 12 of 33 | 9 of 18 | 9 of 11 | 20 of 50 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Raquel Pennington | 38 of 78 | 48% | 9 of 43 | 27 of 30 | 2 of 5 | 10 of 46 | 28 of 32 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holly Holm | 6 of 12 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Raquel Pennington | 5 of 14 | 35% | 1 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Holly Holm | 9 of 17 | 52% | 2 of 8 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 9 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Raquel Pennington | 19 of 27 | 70% | 3 of 10 | 15 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 9 | 17 of 18 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Holly Holm | 15 of 33 | 45% | 8 of 20 | 2 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 14 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Raquel Pennington | 14 of 37 | 37% | 5 of 25 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 26 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Daniel picks Raquel Pennington to edge out a close decision. He notes that Pennington is the more active fighter moving forward and that Holm has gone 4-5 since their first fight while Pennington is 5-2. He also mentions that Pennington is younger at 31 vs Holm pushing 40.
The host is confident in Holly Holm, having already placed 2.5 units at -122. He believes Holm won the first fight easily and that her counter-striking, fight IQ, and power left head kick will be too much for Pennington. He argues that Holm is better at getting off the cage and landing damaging shots, while Pennington's forward movement plays into Holm's game. He dismisses concerns about Holm's recent record, noting she lost to elite fighters, and sees Pennington as a step below.
The host picks Raquel Pennington, citing her thickness and ability to take damage, as seen in her performance against Amanda Nunes. He criticizes Holly Holm's damage-taking ability and age (38), suggesting her prime is over. He predicts Pennington wins by decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Nunes | 1 | 17 of 35 | 48% | 17 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 11 of 14 | 78% | 14 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Nunes | 1 | 17 of 35 | 48% | 17 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 11 of 14 | 78% | 14 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Nunes | 17 of 35 | 48% | 8 of 23 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 |
| Holly Holm | 11 of 14 | 78% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 9 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Nunes | 17 of 35 | 48% | 8 of 23 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 |
| Holly Holm | 11 of 14 | 78% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 9 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holly Holm | 0 | 47 of 71 | 66% | 143 of 176 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 10:44 |
| Megan Anderson | 0 | 26 of 58 | 44% | 48 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holly Holm | 0 | 12 of 17 | 70% | 35 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 |
| Megan Anderson | 0 | 15 of 31 | 48% | 21 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Holly Holm | 0 | 18 of 31 | 58% | 57 of 74 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:39 |
| Megan Anderson | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 16 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Holly Holm | 0 | 17 of 23 | 73% | 51 of 60 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:32 |
| Megan Anderson | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holly Holm | 47 of 71 | 66% | 27 of 47 | 12 of 14 | 8 of 10 | 19 of 35 | 8 of 10 | 20 of 26 |
| Megan Anderson | 26 of 58 | 44% | 15 of 42 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 48 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holly Holm | 12 of 17 | 70% | 4 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
| Megan Anderson | 15 of 31 | 48% | 9 of 24 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 21 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Holly Holm | 18 of 31 | 58% | 15 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 14 |
| Megan Anderson | 7 of 19 | 36% | 4 of 14 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Holly Holm | 17 of 23 | 73% | 8 of 13 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 11 |
| Megan Anderson | 4 of 8 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
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