Career Averages - Tony Ferguson
Career Averages - Edson Barboza
Tony Ferguson - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 4 of 25 | 16% | 4 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 4 of 25 | 16% | 4 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 10 of 18 | 55% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 4 of 25 | 16% | 3 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 10 of 18 | 55% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 4 of 25 | 16% | 3 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Chiesa, calling Ferguson's seven-fight losing streak and CTE concerns. He thinks Chiesa's takedowns and top pressure will be too much for the faded Ferguson, who hasn't looked good in years. He says Chiesa at -400 should be -1500.
Big Brady thinks this fight should not be sanctioned due to Ferguson's seven-fight skid and brutal losses. He notes Ferguson has been submitted by Bobby Green and Nate Diaz, and Chiesa has been submitted five times but has three d'arce choke losses. He predicts Chiesa will take Ferguson down and finish him by first-round submission, but also mentions a sprinkle on Ferguson by submission at +1400 as a prop.
Cody picks Tony Ferguson as a wild underdog, citing Chiesa's poor cardio, tendency to get submitted, and mental lapses. He notes that Ferguson has incredible durability and confidence, and that Chiesa has been submitted by lesser grapplers. Cody thinks Ferguson can win by volume or submission if Chiesa tires. He acknowledges it's a risky bet but feels the line is too wide.
Daniel refuses to pick a winner in this fight. He considers Chiesa a bully who can't take adversity and is overpriced at -750, while Ferguson is a shell of his former self on a seven-fight losing streak. He calls it a pass and says he won't pick either fighter.
Chiesa has the grappling to keep Ferguson on his back, but he has been submitted in five of seven losses. I lean Chiesa by decision, but would not tie -610 to any parlays. The value is on Ferguson by submission at +1200.
Paul picks Tony Ferguson, noting that Chiesa is a -700 favorite but has lost three straight and has cardio issues. He thinks Ferguson can win a volume-based decision or even submit Chiesa, who leaves his neck out. Paul acknowledges it's a 'plug your nose' bet but feels the plus money is worth a small play. He also mentions that Ferguson's confidence is unshaken despite the losing streak.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa over Tony Ferguson, citing Ferguson's age (40) and inability to wrestle. He expects Chiesa to use his size and strength to take Ferguson down and submit him, possibly by arm triangle. He notes Ferguson's training at Knuckleheads Boxing is not improving his game. He predicts a first or second round submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 62 of 105 | 59% | 90 of 134 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 1 | 106 of 165 | 64% | 151 of 217 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 8:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 29 of 55 | 52% | 31 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 1 | 70 of 104 | 67% | 76 of 110 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 2 | Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 18 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 19 of 27 | 70% | 46 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:20 | |
| 3 | Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 22 of 32 | 68% | 41 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 29 of 49 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | 62 of 105 | 59% | 35 of 66 | 23 of 35 | 4 of 4 | 51 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 14 |
| Tony Ferguson | 106 of 165 | 64% | 73 of 127 | 13 of 17 | 20 of 21 | 66 of 109 | 0 of 0 | 40 of 56 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paddy Pimblett | 29 of 55 | 52% | 16 of 32 | 10 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 70 of 104 | 67% | 43 of 72 | 11 of 15 | 16 of 17 | 54 of 82 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 22 | |
| 2 | Paddy Pimblett | 11 of 18 | 61% | 8 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 |
| Tony Ferguson | 19 of 27 | 70% | 16 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 18 | |
| 3 | Paddy Pimblett | 22 of 32 | 68% | 11 of 19 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 |
| Tony Ferguson | 17 of 34 | 50% | 14 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 16 |
Angelo picks Paddy Pimblett confidently, stating that Tony Ferguson is a shell of his former self and that Paddy is a young, cocky prospect. He notes that Paddy is in his 'anti-40 parlay' and expects a dominant win, though he feels bad for Ferguson.
Big Brady picks Paddy Pimblett to win by second-round submission, expressing strong disapproval that the fight is happening. He notes Tony Ferguson's six-fight losing streak, age (39), and accumulated damage, particularly after the Gaethje fight. Brady believes Ferguson is a shell of his former self, citing his poor performance against Bobby Green. He expects Pimblett to dominate and finish via submission or corner stoppage.
Cody picks Pimblett, arguing that Ferguson's last two fights showed he is shot, and that Pimblett's strength and top control will be decisive. He notes that Ferguson has given up 11 minutes of control time in recent fights and cannot get back up. Cody also mentions that Pimblett has taken a year off to refresh and is training with good partners, while Ferguson's personal issues and drinking have affected his performance.
Daniel Vreeland picks Paddy Pimblett, though he expresses sadness about picking against Tony Ferguson. He notes that Ferguson can no longer take a hit, especially after the Michael Chandler head kick. Vreeland believes Pimblett hits hard enough to knock out Ferguson, and that Ferguson's only path to victory is an early submission, which is unlikely. He expects Pimblett to win by knockout.
Jeff Fox picks Paddy Pimblett, stating that Ferguson is on a six-fight losing streak and has been finished in three straight. He notes that Pimblett is younger and more active, and that Ferguson's chin is gone. Fox believes Pimblett will finish Ferguson, possibly by knockout or submission.
Lucrative James is extremely confident Paddy Pimblett will win, calling it a setup fight. He believes Tony Ferguson is completely washed and on a seven-fight losing streak. He thinks Paddy will submit Ferguson, noting that Ferguson got submitted by Bobby Green and controlled by Charles Oliveira. He says Paddy should be a much heavier favorite and that the fight likely won't go to decision.
The host picks Pimblett but with low confidence, noting that Ferguson is a shell of his former self on a long losing streak. He expects Pimblett to walk Ferguson down, land big shots, and take him to the ground to grind out a decision, similar to how Oliveira and Dariush beat Ferguson. However, he is wary of the minus 285 line and acknowledges Ferguson could pull off a submission if he hurts Pimblett. He calls it a 'tailor-made' fight for Pimblett but expresses unease.
Paul picks Pimblett, stating that Tony Ferguson is 'absolutely cooked' after a six-fight losing streak. He notes that Ferguson has been submitted by Bobby Green and has no ability to get back up once taken down, as seen against Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush. Paul believes Pimblett's strength and top control will be enough, and that the year off will have refreshed Pimblett. He expects a good version of Pimblett.
The Guru picks Paddy Pimblett over Tony Ferguson, citing Ferguson's decline, especially his wrestling defense and inability to get back up. He believes Pimblett is too big and strong, and that Ferguson's legs are shot from training with David Goggins. He predicts Pimblett will take Ferguson down, get his back, and submit him with a rear-naked choke in round one.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Green | 0 | 54 of 123 | 43% | 62 of 138 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 137 of 217 | 63% | 145 of 227 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 3:25 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King Green | 0 | 14 of 42 | 33% | 15 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 40 of 72 | 55% | 40 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | King Green | 0 | 16 of 36 | 44% | 23 of 48 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 49 of 77 | 63% | 57 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:36 | |
| 3 | King Green | 0 | 24 of 45 | 53% | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 48 of 68 | 70% | 48 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Green | 54 of 123 | 43% | 38 of 98 | 11 of 18 | 5 of 7 | 50 of 118 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 |
| Tony Ferguson | 137 of 217 | 63% | 95 of 166 | 24 of 31 | 18 of 20 | 115 of 183 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 33 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King Green | 14 of 42 | 33% | 11 of 33 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 3 | 14 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 40 of 72 | 55% | 23 of 50 | 7 of 10 | 10 of 12 | 39 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | King Green | 16 of 36 | 44% | 14 of 32 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Tony Ferguson | 49 of 77 | 63% | 38 of 66 | 8 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 31 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 29 | |
| 3 | King Green | 24 of 45 | 53% | 13 of 33 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 23 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 48 of 68 | 70% | 34 of 50 | 9 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 45 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
Angelo is very confident in Bobby Green, mainly due to Tony Ferguson being a shell of his former self after taking severe beatings. He notes Green's volume, accuracy, and takedown defense, and believes Green will outpoint Ferguson. He also suggests a sneaky bet on over 1.5 rounds because Green is not a one-punch KO artist and Ferguson is durable.
Big Brady picks Bobby Green to win by third-round knockout. He believes Tony Ferguson is washed after taking life-changing damage and looking terrible in recent fights. He notes Green is not a finisher but expects him to finish Ferguson, possibly by mercy stoppage. He thinks this fight should not be sanctioned and predicts the end of Ferguson's UFC run.
Cody picks Green, citing Ferguson's decline after taking life-changing damage from Gaethje and Chandler. He notes Ferguson's takedown defense is poor (only one takedown in eight years) and his wrestling hasn't materialized. Green's boxing, takedown defense, and volume should outpoint Ferguson. He likes the prop of Green and over 1.5 rounds at -132.
James believes Ferguson is done, having lost five in a row and showing diminished durability and submission defense. He thinks Green can win, possibly by knockout, but is not confident enough to bet the moneyline. He leans under due to Green's recent finishes and Ferguson's decline.
Ferguson is on a five-fight losing streak and looks done. Green is a much more effective boxer than Diaz and will be aggressive after his last fight ended in a no contest. Green should outpoint Ferguson and possibly get a late stoppage. I'm leaning Green by decision but he might be more aggressive.
Paul agrees, arguing Ferguson's wins haven't aged well and his style is outdated. He highlights Green's counter-punching and takedown defense, and Ferguson's lack of power and inability to overwhelm Green. He expects a decision win for Green with Ferguson bleeding and behind on the scorecards.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 101 of 217 | 46% | 101 of 217 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 80 of 172 | 46% | 80 of 172 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 22 of 51 | 43% | 22 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 19 of 45 | 42% | 19 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 28 of 59 | 47% | 28 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 20 of 51 | 39% | 20 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 26 of 56 | 46% | 26 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 30 of 51 | 58% | 30 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 25 of 51 | 49% | 25 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 11 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Diaz | 101 of 217 | 46% | 71 of 178 | 21 of 30 | 9 of 9 | 99 of 214 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 80 of 172 | 46% | 23 of 106 | 23 of 27 | 34 of 39 | 80 of 172 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Diaz | 22 of 51 | 43% | 12 of 36 | 6 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 19 of 45 | 42% | 5 of 28 | 7 of 8 | 7 of 9 | 19 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nate Diaz | 28 of 59 | 47% | 19 of 49 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 28 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 20 of 51 | 39% | 5 of 35 | 6 of 6 | 9 of 10 | 20 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nate Diaz | 26 of 56 | 46% | 21 of 48 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 24 of 53 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 30 of 51 | 58% | 12 of 31 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 15 | 30 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Nate Diaz | 25 of 51 | 49% | 19 of 45 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 11 of 25 | 44% | 1 of 12 | 5 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Li Jingliang, citing Tony Ferguson's recent knockout and fast turnaround. He thinks Ferguson's chin is compromised and Jingliang's power and feints will confuse him. He notes Ferguson looked good against Chandler but was put out badly, and the three-month turnaround is too soon.
Big Brady picks Li Jingliang to win by first-round knockout, expressing concern for Tony Ferguson's durability after taking massive damage in recent fights. He notes Ferguson is 38, moving up in weight, and has been knocked out brutally by Chandler. He highlights Li's power, having knocked out tough fighters like Ponzinibbio and Salikhov, and predicts an early finish.
Cody is confident that Khamzat Chimaev will win, noting that Chimaev is a massive favorite and that Nate Diaz is an undersized former 155-pounder. He believes Chimaev's size and strength will be too much, and that Diaz's jiu-jitsu won't be a factor. Cody mentions that the only value is in props like Chimaev over 1.5 takedowns, and he doesn't see Diaz winning even one out of ten times.
Daniel Levi picks Khamzat Chimaev to win, citing Chimaev's wrestling and power as key factors. He acknowledges Diaz's durability and ability to survive, but believes Chimaev's improvements and pacing will lead to victory. Levi notes that Diaz's age and scar tissue could be issues, and he expects Chimaev to dominate with ground and pound. He is not betting the moneyline due to the heavy juice, but is confident in Chimaev's win.
Jacob picks Li Jingliang, emphasizing his feints and angles will give Ferguson PTSD. He thinks Ferguson will be gun-shy and react big to feints. He notes Ferguson could wrestle but doubts he will, and even if he does, Jingliang's takedown defense may hold. He calls it a bad matchup for Ferguson.
The host is extremely confident in Khamzat Chimaev, expecting him to take Nate Diaz down immediately and smash him on the ground. He dismisses Diaz's durability and jiu-jitsu, citing Chimaev's wrestling and size. He took under 1.5 rounds at +120 and suggests Chimaev round one at +165.
Paul picks Chimaev to win but expresses concerns about his cardio and persona. He notes that Chimaev's fight with Gilbert Burns showed he is human and may have cardio issues, and that the five-round fight could favor Diaz if Chimaev tires. However, he believes Chimaev has learned from that fight and will hold down Diaz more easily. Paul also mentions the over 1.5 rounds and over on takedowns as props.
The MMA Guru picks Tony Ferguson to win by 48-47 decision. He predicts Ferguson wins rounds 1, 2, and 4, while Diaz wins round 3, and round 5 is a stalemate. Ferguson chews up Diaz's leg and body with teeps and front kicks, lands elbows that cut Diaz, and freestyles with 360 body shots. Diaz has moments, including a takedown in round 3, but Ferguson scrambles out and lands more. The fight ends with both swinging, but Ferguson's output edges him the win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chandler | 1 | 27 of 53 | 50% | 43 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:31 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 20 of 50 | 40% | 27 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chandler | 0 | 26 of 52 | 50% | 42 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:29 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 20 of 50 | 40% | 27 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Chandler | 1 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chandler | 27 of 53 | 50% | 15 of 39 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 15 |
| Tony Ferguson | 20 of 50 | 40% | 13 of 38 | 2 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chandler | 26 of 52 | 50% | 14 of 38 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 15 |
| Tony Ferguson | 20 of 50 | 40% | 13 of 38 | 2 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 | |
| 2 | Michael Chandler | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chandler (-380), Ferguson (+290)
Round 1
At one time, Ferguson (25-6, 15-4 UFC) had amassed an outstanding 12-fight win streak, where he claimed the interim title at one point, but he has fallen on hard times the last few years. On a three-fight skid, “El Cucuy” is at a crossroads at the age of 38, and he will take on hard-charging, granite-chinned Chandler (22-7, 1-2 UFC) in a match that still holds significance at 155 pounds. Referee Jason Herzog may have his hands full depending on how this battle plays out, and these two hope to bring out a firefight while not bothering to touch gloves. Ferguson reaches out with a low kick to see how far he can reach, and Chandler picks his leg up and scoots back. Ferguson arcs out a standing elbow, expecting Chandler to come at him, but Chandler does not oblige. Ferguson’s front kick brushes pass Chandler’s hand, and Chandler chops down the leg with a pair of heavy kicks. Chandler just misses with a left hook, and Ferguson meets him in the middle with his own left. Ferguson clips the former Bellator champ with a left hand, and he kicks high and stings Chandler. Ferguson hurts him again with a few punches, and he backs Chandler up to the wall. Ferguson does not go wild, instead working the body and getting caught with a left hand. They trade heavily and both connect and get the other’s attention, and it is Ferguson that lands the flusher strikes and backs Chandler off. Chandler throws a leg kick, only to get countered over the top. Blasting through with a double, “Iron Mike” knocks Ferguson clean off his feet with a tackling takedown, and Ferguson kicks off the fence and slashes with elbows off his back to open a cut on Chandler’s head. Ferguson cleverly holds on to Chandler with his feet on his hips, and he pushes Chandler off and nearly flips his man over as he keeps a high guard and attempts to hook up an omoplata. Ferguson snatches hold of a triangle choke until Chandler blasts him in the face, and he loads up on several punches to make Ferguson readjust his attempts at submission. Ferguson protests that Chandler is lowering his head down and clacking him in the face with his forehead, and Herzog warns Ferguson for grabbing the fence. Ferguson turns and nearly sweeps, but Chandler deftly remains on top and gets off some short ground-and-pound. Ferguson hacks with elbows off his back, and the blood from Chandler is leaking down into Ferguson’s eyes. Chandler looses a few punches and cuts Ferguson’s right eye, and the thrilling round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ferguson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ferguson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ferguson
Round 2
Between rounds, Chandler’s right eye swells up substantially, but he does not appear remotely concerned about it as the round opens up. Before Ferguson can throw a single punch, Chandler summons all of his strength and calls on the legends of Anderson Silva and Lyoto Machida to empower his right leg. In the most spectacular move tonight by a landslide, Chandler smashes the ball of his foot into Ferguson’s chin, and the light fades from Ferguson’s eyes in an instant. “El Cucuy” topples over, completely unconscious, and he slumps over on his face and is communing with his ancestors. Chandler celebrates, knowing there is nothing left for him to do today, and he hits several back flips in rapid succession, sticking the landing for each and every one. The video cuts to Molly McCann and Paddy Pimblett in the crowd, and appropriately so, as this knockout might have topped her incredible spinning back elbow earlier this year with the cleanest front kick knockout you will ever see. As Chandler is with his team, Ferguson is still out, but he finally manages to come around to the delight of everyone in the building. What an incredible knockout, one that will stand on highlight reels for years to come. Absolutely amazing. To top it off, Chandler calls for a fight with Conor McGregor in his post-fight interview, but good luck getting “Notorious” to take that fight after witnessing that astounding knockout.
The Official Result
Michael Chandler def. Tony Ferguson R2 0:17 via KO (Front Kick)
Angelo picks Michael Chandler, stating that everything Tony Ferguson does well, Chandler does better. He believes Chandler's chin has held up after the Gaethje war and expects a war similar to Chandler's last fight. He notes that Ferguson may not be the same after the Gaethje loss.
Big Brady picks Michael Chandler to win by decision. He notes that the blueprint to beat Ferguson is to take him down and control him, as Oliveira and Dariush did. However, Chandler is more of a striker and may not follow that blueprint. Brady thinks Chandler's power and wrestling could still get the job done, and he expects Chandler to mix in takedowns and win minutes on top. He is not laying -400 on Chandler but believes he will cruise to a decision. He acknowledges Ferguson's toughness and danger on the feet but thinks Chandler is closer to his prime.
Cody picks Michael Chandler but also dislikes the -380 price. He provides a detailed breakdown of Ferguson's decline, noting that Ferguson hasn't looked good in years, even in wins. Cody points out that Ferguson's game hasn't evolved, he trains alone, and his unorthodox style is no longer effective. He believes Chandler's wrestling and power will be too much, and that Chandler can take Ferguson's best shots. Cody expects Chandler to dominate early and possibly knock Ferguson out, but acknowledges Ferguson could win 3 out of 10 times.
Daniel Levi picks Michael Chandler confidently, though he does not bet the fight due to the high price. He notes Chandler's first-round explosiveness and wrestling fallback, while Ferguson has declined significantly, losing 11 straight rounds. He thinks Chandler's speed and power are too much for this version of Ferguson, but he is not interested in laying -425. He passes on betting entirely.
The host picks Michael Chandler to win by first-round knockout. He questions Chandler's wrestling approach, expecting him to stand and trade. He notes Ferguson's unorthodox style and durability, but believes Chandler's power will find the chin early. He is not betting Chandler at -400, but likes 'fight doesn't go to decision' at -180 and Ferguson submission at +750 as small shots. He acknowledges Ferguson's crafty jiu-jitsu and Chandler's history of being knocked out.
Paul picks Michael Chandler to win but is not confident at -380. He thinks Ferguson is washed and that Chandler will dominate early, possibly getting a finish. However, Paul is more interested in the 'fight goes to decision' prop at +150, citing Ferguson's durability. He notes that Ferguson has only been knocked out once (by Gaethje) and is tough to finish, so the decision prop offers value.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Chandler by first-round KO, believing Tony Ferguson is done. He argues Ferguson's ground game is overrated and that Chandler can take him down or KO him. He notes Chandler's speed and leg kicks, and that Ferguson's chin is up in the air. He thinks Chandler will slip inside Ferguson's jab and land a big right hand. He also mentions Chandler has more to fight for, including a potential McGregor fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneil Dariush | 0 | 15 of 34 | 44% | 37 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 23 of 55 | 41% | 76 of 142 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 12:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 13 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 10 of 28 | 35% | 32 of 66 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 | |
| 2 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 26 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 4:04 | |
| 3 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 18 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:31 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneil Dariush | 15 of 34 | 44% | 10 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 10 |
| Tony Ferguson | 23 of 55 | 41% | 16 of 48 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beneil Dariush | 7 of 18 | 38% | 6 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
| Tony Ferguson | 10 of 28 | 35% | 6 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Beneil Dariush | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Tony Ferguson | 6 of 14 | 42% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | |
| 3 | Beneil Dariush | 6 of 12 | 50% | 3 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Tony Ferguson | 7 of 13 | 53% | 5 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Up next is the long-awaited co-main event, which sees Ferguson (25-5, 15-3 UFC) try to snap the first losing streak of his career against the surging Dariush (20-4-1, 14-4-1 UFC). Hold on to your hats, this one is about to get crazy. Referee Mike Beltran clocks them in and they do not touch gloves, preferring to let their hands settle things instead. Ferguson stutter-steps forward into a left hand, but he is no worse for wear from it. Dariush kicks across Ferguson’s leg to his surprise, and he darts in with a left hook that falls short. Dariush charges in to attack, and Ferguson eats a few shots but is slick and moving everywhere to avoid the shots. Dariush scores another unusual leg kick to Ferguson’s rear leg, and Dariush is ready to brawl and throws hands to catch Ferguson off-guard. Dariush presses forward, and he hits a body lock takedown to plant Ferguson on his back. Ferguson kicks him off, scores an upkick, and pulls a high rubber guard when Dariush climbs back down. Dariush ignores it and pushes through to land a few punches to the body, but “El Cucuy” is holding him tight and elbowing him on the side of the head a few times. Ferguson looks to set up a triangle choke, but when that fails, he recovers his guard. Dariush sits up to start nailing Ferguson with punches and elbows, and Ferguson takes them on the chin all while continuing to hack back with elbows. Ferguson rolls over to nearly sweep Dariush, but he is pushed back over and finds himself surrendering half guard. Dariush steps over to set up an arm-triangle choke, and Ferguson looks to roll through and attack with an armbar as he pushes off the fence. Dariush sees it coming and flows with him, where he slides into Ferguson’s butterfly guard. The Kings MMA fighter resecures half guard, and he steps over to the other side to land some ground-and-pound. When Dariush looks to congratulate him for the round, Ferguson pushes him away to go back to his corner.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Round 2
The second round begins with Ferguson taking the center of the cage, and Dariush kicks his lead leg. Ferguson falls down Dariush looks to take him down. Instead of succumbing to a bad position, Ferguson attacks a brabo choke from his back against the wall. Dariush stays patient and unconcerned with the submission until Ferguson bails on it, where he looks to pull Ferguson’s legs out from beneath him. Dariush pulls him off the fence to put Ferguson flat on his back, and Dariush in full guard starts slugging away at Ferguson. Dariush ignores Ferguson’s flailing on his back to smash his fists on Ferguson’s head, and elbows and punches land until Ferguson tries to push him away. Dariush stays committed to keeping Ferguson grounded, and Ferguson attacks with a submission to get Dariush to back off. Ferguson sweeps Dariush in a wild scramble, and Dariush pulls him back down to attack a heel hook. Ferguson is in serious agony, and he grimaces but does not yell out and instead kicks Dariush in the chest to break the grip. As Dariush loosens the grip, he climbs over on top. Dariush steps into half guard, where he threatens with an arm-triangle choke but is more intent on smothering Ferguson’s face with his chest. Ferguson elbows him a few times, but Dariush does not care as he stays pressed heavy to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Round 3
Ferguson’s leg is severely compromised from the heel hook, and he tries to use his tricky movement but does not have his wheels about him. Dariush walks through any strikes to grab hold of Ferguson, and “El Cucuy” latches on to a guillotine choke. Dariush lifts him up and slams him down, where he breaks the grip and gains an advantageous position. The two end up in a north-south position as Ferguson kicks off the fence, but Dariush expertly traverses the guard to try to get side control. The crowd chants “stand them up,” and these chants echo through the Toyota Center, Beltran asks the fighters to keep moving. Dariush pulls on his adversary to try to get Ferguson’s legs away from the cage, and the two are in a grappling stalemate with no strikes thrown of any kind. Dariush grinds his elbow on Ferguson’s chin, and Ferguson holds on tight but is not doing anything of note either. This odd north-south posture continues as fans grow more restless, and Dariush hops over to side control. Ferguson looks to set up an arm-triangle choke from his back like Maurice Greene pulled off on Gian Villante, but Dariush breaks the grip and hops over on top. Ferguson rolls through and the two get back to their north-south with Ferguson’s feet on the cage, and Dariush spins through to try to land strikes. Ferguson closes his guard and Dariush lands a few short punches to the body. Dariush finishes the fight with a few punches from above, and Ferguson answers with elbows to end this disappointing yet one-sided lightweight clash.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (30-27 Dariush)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (30-27 Dariush)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (30-27 Dariush)
The Official Result
Beneil Dariush def. Tony Ferguson via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Ferguson has taken massive damage and looks diminished. Dariush is a BJJ black belt with good striking and takedowns. He can implement a similar game plan to Oliveira: take Ferguson down and control him. Ferguson is tough to finish, so I expect a decision win for Dariush.
Cody also picks Dariush, emphasizing Ferguson's decline and poor game plans. He notes that Ferguson's wins are aging and he hasn't knocked anyone out in years. Cody believes Dariush is a thinking man's fighter who will use takedowns and top control to win. He points out that Ferguson's takedown defense is weak and his submission game is not a threat from the bottom. Cody expects Dariush to win the first round and then secure a decision.
Daniel Levi picks Beneil Dariush, emphasizing Ferguson's decline since his knee injury and the Gaethje fight. He notes Dariush's six-fight win streak, knockout power, and jiu-jitsu credentials, and believes Dariush can mix takedowns and avoid submissions. Levi is concerned about Dariush's tendency to leave openings and gas, but thinks Ferguson's durability and chin have diminished. He expects Dariush to dominate and win via decision or late stoppage.
The host picks Dariush but is not confident, noting Ferguson's chaotic style could cause problems. He thinks Dariush should have a grappling advantage and grind out a decision, but worries about Ferguson's ability to create volatility. He says he is not running to the betting window on Dariush.
Paul picks Dariush, citing Ferguson's decline. He notes that Ferguson has lost to elite guys and looked abysmal in his last two fights. Paul believes Dariush's wrestling and game planning will be key, as he can take Ferguson down and neutralize him, similar to what Oliveira did. He mentions that Ferguson's takedown defense is poor and his submission game is not a threat from the bottom. Paul expects Dariush to win by decision, using takedowns to control the fight.
The MMA Guru picks Beneil Dariush over Tony Ferguson, citing Ferguson's age and recent decline. He notes that Ferguson's wins are aging poorly and that Dariush thrives under chaos, which is key against Ferguson. He predicts Dariush will control the fight with grappling and win a unanimous decision 29-28.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 26 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 41 of 63 | 65% | 86 of 112 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 11:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 16 of 28 | 57% | 28 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:35 | |
| 2 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 12 of 16 | 75% | 34 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 | |
| 3 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 24 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:59 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 19 of 42 | 45% | 14 of 29 | 3 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 15 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Tony Ferguson | 41 of 63 | 65% | 26 of 43 | 7 of 11 | 8 of 9 | 17 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 29 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 11 of 29 | 37% | 7 of 21 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 16 of 28 | 57% | 12 of 22 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 9 | |
| 2 | Charles Oliveira | 6 of 7 | 85% | 5 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Tony Ferguson | 12 of 16 | 75% | 6 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 10 | |
| 3 | Charles Oliveira | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 13 of 19 | 68% | 8 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 10 |
Big Brady picks Tony Ferguson to win by third-round knockout. He believes Ferguson's pace and volume will break Oliveira, who has cardio issues and has been finished in six of seven losses. He notes Oliveira's improved striking but thinks Ferguson's pressure and durability will be key. He is not in love with the -170 line but might look at inside the distance or under props.
Daniel acknowledges Ferguson's historical superiority and higher level of competition, but expresses concerns about Ferguson's recent interviews and potential damage from the Gaethje fight. He thinks Oliveira's boxing has improved but is not convinced Oliveira has truly turned a corner. He ultimately picks Ferguson but calls it a dog-or-pass situation, noting he is not confident.
Ferguson's relentless pressure and unorthodox style will break Oliveira, who has historically folded under pressure. Oliveira's best chance is an early finish, but if it goes past the first round, Ferguson will drown him. Ferguson's cardio and durability are superior. Expect a second-round TKO or submission for Ferguson.
The MMA Guru picks Tony Ferguson, despite many picking Oliveira. He believes Ferguson's chin, experience against better competition, and ability to win on the feet will be key. He expects Ferguson to win by TKO in the third round. He notes Oliveira's tendency to slow down and fail at the top level.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | 0 | 136 of 296 | 45% | 136 of 296 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 143 of 197 | 72% | 143 of 197 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 29 of 54 | 53% | 29 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 26 of 37 | 70% | 26 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 33 of 64 | 51% | 33 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 37 of 50 | 74% | 37 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 24 of 69 | 34% | 24 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 20 of 35 | 57% | 20 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 36 of 73 | 49% | 36 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 26 of 36 | 72% | 26 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 14 of 36 | 38% | 14 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 34 of 39 | 87% | 34 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | 136 of 296 | 45% | 64 of 212 | 36 of 43 | 36 of 41 | 136 of 296 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 143 of 197 | 72% | 100 of 153 | 13 of 14 | 30 of 30 | 143 of 197 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Gaethje | 29 of 54 | 53% | 13 of 36 | 10 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 29 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 26 of 37 | 70% | 15 of 25 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 26 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Justin Gaethje | 33 of 64 | 51% | 17 of 47 | 3 of 4 | 13 of 13 | 33 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 37 of 50 | 74% | 24 of 37 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 9 | 37 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Justin Gaethje | 24 of 69 | 34% | 13 of 57 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 24 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 20 of 35 | 57% | 14 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Justin Gaethje | 36 of 73 | 49% | 17 of 50 | 13 of 16 | 6 of 7 | 36 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 26 of 36 | 72% | 18 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 7 | 26 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Justin Gaethje | 14 of 36 | 38% | 4 of 22 | 5 of 6 | 5 of 8 | 14 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 34 of 39 | 87% | 29 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 34 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Here we go, folks. It’s time for the main event, and the bonus checks have practically already been written for these two. For the interim lightweight belt, and a chance to fight Khabib Nurmagomedov, is a potentially thrilling encounter between Ferguson (25-3, 15-1 UFC) and Gaethje (21-2, 4-2 UFC). Together, the two have pocketed 15 post-fight bonuses in their last 16 fights, and referee Herb Dean will look to keep things clean as they head into glorious battle. The glove touch leads into a few seconds of circling until Ferguson throws a front kick. Gaethje opens up with a leg kick, but it is shy of the mark. Tony turns his back to showboat a little, and then throws a superman punch that chains into a two punch combination. Gaethje loses his balance, but regains it quickly to throw a heavy left hand. Ferguson rolls with it, and eats a leg kick. Ferguson takes another hard leg kick and tries to counter over the top, but Gaethje is ready for him with a two-punch salvo. Ferguson scores an inside leg kick that slightly trips Gaethje, but “The Highlight” still manages to land a right hand. A thumping left hook from Gaethje surprises Ferguson, but “El Cucuy” is not too concerned with it. Ferguson jabs to the body and ducks down just in time to avoid a lethal left hook. Ferguson catches Gaethje with a head kick and immediately sticks him with a jab. Gaethje bullies him over, and Ferguson rolls out to get back up. Gaethje connects with another nasty leg kick, and both swing with crazy right hands that just miss. “The Highlight” scores a few more short kicks, and Ferguson is smiling at him as he tries to stick out long punches and kicks. Ferguson digs in with a low kick, and gets countered with a right hand that makes him stumble. A small mouse has formed on the center of Ferguson’s forehead, and he takes another right hand right to the same spot. They jab each other, and both crack each other with vicious left hooks. Gaethje comes at him with another, and a glancing eye poke leads to an apology from Gaethje. The round end with both men kicking at each other.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Round 2
They greet each other with punches in the face, as Ferguson sneaks in with another superman punch and Gaethje comes back with a right hand. They load up on big punches, and Gaethje connects with a blistering left hook but Ferguson takes it without issue. A thin trickle of blood appears to be coming from the nose of Gaethje, but he does not care as he commits to a thunderous left hand that nearly lifts Ferguson off the ground. Ferguson does not even show a wobble in his step, but takes a low kick when trying to show he is not hurt. Another kick from Gaethje makes Ferguson visibly react to it, and Ferguson swings and misses with a big hook. Gaethje throws one back that blows his hair back, and then clashes a right hand off the dome of his opponent. These two are trading one for the other, and both are having their moments of success. A one-two from Ferguson does not bother Gaethje, who replies with much heavier punches. The ex-WSOF champ rips to the body and then fires a left on the side of Ferguson’s head. Gaethje is loading up on all his punches, and busts up the nose of Ferguson and damages his eye. Gaethje swings from downtown to nail Ferguson on the head, but the former interim champ does not appear to be too concerned. Ferguson spins with a back elbow, and then turns about to land a leg kick. As Ferguson overcommits to an overhand right, a leg kick from Gaethje nearly buckles his knee. Gaethje digs deep and wings a right hand that would put most fighters on the canvas, but Ferguson wades through it. Two punches from Gaethje crack Ferguson on the chin, but like before, there is no reaction. With the round about to end, both men fire Mortal Kombat-esque uppercuts, and Ferguson lands flush and drops Gaethje. What a way to end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Round 3
The two are not afraid to engage in Round 3, Ferguson is taking heavy shots but walks through them to land his own. The power significantly in the favor of Gaethje, Ferguson’s durability is unbelievable as he takes a picture-perfect right and left that bust him open. The damage is instant, as he is bleeding out of the side of his left eye while there is also a cut and a mouse forming under his right. Ferguson leaps forward with a trick punch, but Gaethje times it with a left hand to back him off. They time uppercuts on one another, and a crisp right hook nearly knocks Ferguson down. Gaethje senses he has him hurt, finally, and Gaethje is swinging to finish the fight. Ferguson comes back with an uppercut, and blows his nose out while walking him down. Gaethje cracks Ferguson about as good as anyone could possibly land, and Ferguson takes it like no one else. “El Cucuy” strings together a few punches while avoiding the counter left hook that comes his way. Ferguson catches him on the end of a left hand, but Gaethje is still loading up on right hands that are connecting with ferocious intent. A few jabs to the body force a momentary deep breath from Gaethje, and Ferguson sweeps low to kick Gaethje’s legs out. Ferguson starts to get loose, faking wild arm movement to get his way in and tag Gaethje. Gaethje cracks him with a head kick and follows it with a ridiculous right hand, and yet again Ferguson eats it. A leg kick from Gaethje and a few kicks from each fighter conclude this ludicrous round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Round 4
Gaethje begins the round with a heavy leg kick, and Ferguson is hunched low perhaps to throw Gaethje off. Ferguson’s corner Eddie Bravo recommended that Ferguson pursue an Imanari roll to surprise Gaethje, which could be the reason for his low stance. Ferguson misses with a wheel kick, and Gaethje comes back with a powerful right hand. “El Cucuy” loads up on an elbow but he get caught on the way in, and when he tries to gain distance, he gets clipped with a right. Lefts and rights are coming en masse for Gaethje, but the former WSOF champion lands an incredibly successful leg kick that makes Ferguson grimace as he spins around. Ferguson sneaks him with a left hand, and Gaethje returns fire with a devastating right hand that wobbles his legs. That shot finally damaged the chin of Ferguson, and the leg kicks have been helping as well. Ferguson avoids some damage while spinning against the fence, and they get back to the center of the cage while Gaethje rips a few more leg kicks. Ferguson gets his sea legs about him, and as they come together, a low kick from Ferguson lands low. Gaethje shakes it off, and Dean pauses it for just a moment before Gaethje waves him off to keep fighting. Gaethje does not want to let Ferguson off the hook, but Ferguson is the one engaging now in the form of a multitude of jabs off the bow. As Ferguson goes for another jab, Gaethje blasts the lead leg and makes Ferguson’s knee buckle. Ferguson somehow manages to walk through it, so Gaethje gives one more for good measure. Both men trade head kicks, and the fourth round is now in the books.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Round 5
Gaethje shows no fear as he begins the round with a right hand and a leg kick that gives Ferguson pause. Ferguson manages to check the kick, and his shins are bleeding as a result. A right hand from Gaethje stings him, and Ferguson wears it well to get back his composure. Gaethje racks him with two more punches, and a leg kick forces Ferguson to limp. Ferguson kicks Gaethje’s leg, and Gaethje is not thrilled with having to each that along with another that follows. Two punches from Ferguson are countered by Gaethje, who clubs him in the face with punches that make Ferguson do the chicken dance. Hurt again, Ferguson bounces back against the fence, but still manages to come back around. In a desperate effort, Ferguson rolls for that Imanari roll, but Gaethje is a long way away. Ferguson gets back up, and Gaethje makes him pay for it with a few loud leg kicks and thudding right hands. He connects with another few right hands, and Ferguson wears them shocking well given how much damage he has accumulated over the course of the fight. The head strike totals from Gaethje are likely astronomical,
and a stiff left jab sends Ferguson into a walking stupor. Ferguson is falling across the cage, and Gaethje chases him down while Ferguson’s eyes are badly damaged and blinded with blood. A few more punches from Gaethje force Dean to intervene and stop the fight, and this is a righteous stoppage even though Ferguson doesn’t agree with it. What a battle, what total mayhem that was.
Gaethje is now the first fighter to ever knock out the otherworldly durable Ferguson. Justin Gaethje is now the new interim UFC lightweight champion, and scored himself a chance to take on Khabib Nurmagomedov. In his post-fight interview, Gaethje hurls the interim belt off of his waist, and tells Joe Rogan, “I want the real one.”
The Official Result
Justin Gaethje def. Tony Ferguson R5 3:39 via TKO (Punches)
Big Brady picks Tony Ferguson, expecting him to break Gaethje over time by wearing him down. He notes Gaethje's tendency to tire and get hit, and Ferguson's never been finished by strikes. He predicts a knockout in the third or fourth round. However, he criticizes the line at minus 185 as too wide, suggesting it should be closer to a pick'em, and sees value on Gaethje.
Daniel Levi picks Tony Ferguson, citing Ferguson's insane pace, unorthodox footwork, and front kicks to the gut. He believes Ferguson will drown Gaethje in the later rounds, though he acknowledges Gaethje's power and cardio. Levi notes that Ferguson's chin tends to lift when teeing off, which could be dangerous against Gaethje, but he trusts Ferguson's ability to avoid a concussive blow and take over.
Matt picks Ferguson but is not confident at -185, calling the line too wide. He believes Ferguson's unorthodox style, cardio, and jiu-jitsu can overwhelm Gaethje in later rounds. He sees value on Gaethje at +160 and suggests the under 2.5 rounds as a possible bet, but he plans to just enjoy the fight without betting.
Edson Barboza - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:07 |
| Jalin Turner | 2 | 39 of 66 | 59% | 43 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:07 |
| Jalin Turner | 2 | 39 of 66 | 59% | 43 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 10 of 20 | 50% | 4 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jalin Turner | 39 of 66 | 59% | 29 of 55 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 33 of 53 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 10 of 20 | 50% | 4 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jalin Turner | 39 of 66 | 59% | 29 of 55 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 33 of 53 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 3 |
Angelo picks Jalin Turner despite concerns about his mental state after retiring following a couple of losses. He acknowledges Turner's advantages in height, range, and striking, and believes he is the better fighter at this stage. However, he questions whether Turner returned for the right reasons or just for a paycheck. Angelo ultimately trusts that Turner is focused and will win, but expresses hesitation.
Big Brady picks Jalin Turner, citing his dangerous striking and 100% finish rate. He believes Barboza is washed and lacks durability, and that Turner will keep the fight standing. He expects Turner to win by first-round knockout, though he questions Turner's mentality.
Cody picks Turner, citing his size, power, and youth. He notes that Turner has knocked down top lightweights and has a significant reach advantage. He believes Barboza is past his prime and that Turner will finish him early. He is confident despite Turner's recent loss and retirement talk.
Connor picks Jalin Turner hesitantly, citing Turner's fight-ending power and Barboza's age and recent decline. He notes that Barboza has looked hesitant and unable to pull the trigger, while Turner has more instantaneous power. However, Connor is concerned about Turner's mental state after his last performance and retirement talk.
Daniel is undecided, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation. He sees Turner's physical advantages and power but questions his heart and recent losses. Barboza's toughness and experience are assets, but his age (39) is a concern. He plans to make a pick on fight week.
Lucrative James thinks Jalin Turner will finish Edson Barboza early. He notes Barboza has looked washed and vulnerable in recent fights, often getting wobbled. He believes Turner's length, power, and viciousness will overwhelm Barboza. He acknowledges concerns about Turner's mental state after retirement but sees this as a favorable stylistic matchup.
The host believes Turner, returning from a short retirement, will be dialed in and take advantage of Barboza's deteriorating durability. He expects Turner to finish the fight within a round and a half.
Paul picks Turner, noting his size and power advantage. He believes Barboza is done and that Turner will overwhelm him. He mentions that Turner's only losses are to top competition and that he has the ability to finish early. He thinks Turner wins by TKO.
The Guru picks Jalin Turner to beat Edson Barboza, noting Barboza's decline and damage accumulation. He believes Turner's range and grappling will be key, and that Barboza cannot pull the trigger like before. The Guru predicts a first-round TKO finish.
Zane picks Jalin Turner hesitantly, noting that Turner has more instantaneous fight-ending power than Barboza. He acknowledges Barboza's age and recent performances where he couldn't pull the trigger. Zane is concerned about Turner's mental state but believes his power gives him the edge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 71 of 120 | 59% | 73 of 122 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:50 |
| Drakkar Klose | 0 | 53 of 102 | 51% | 147 of 209 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 24 of 36 | 66% | 26 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:26 |
| Drakkar Klose | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 68 of 89 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 2 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 18 of 38 | 47% | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
| Drakkar Klose | 0 | 25 of 44 | 56% | 50 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:40 | |
| 3 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 29 of 46 | 63% | 29 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
| Drakkar Klose | 0 | 13 of 29 | 44% | 29 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 71 of 120 | 59% | 26 of 64 | 32 of 38 | 13 of 18 | 57 of 105 | 14 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Drakkar Klose | 53 of 102 | 51% | 35 of 78 | 6 of 9 | 12 of 15 | 43 of 89 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 24 of 36 | 66% | 4 of 11 | 13 of 17 | 7 of 8 | 18 of 30 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Drakkar Klose | 15 of 29 | 51% | 8 of 18 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 8 | 13 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Edson Barboza | 18 of 38 | 47% | 7 of 22 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 4 | 14 of 33 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Drakkar Klose | 25 of 44 | 56% | 19 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 19 of 36 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Edson Barboza | 29 of 46 | 63% | 15 of 31 | 9 of 9 | 5 of 6 | 25 of 42 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Drakkar Klose | 13 of 29 | 44% | 8 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 26 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo acknowledges both fighters are older but notes Barboza's striking, speed, and experience against top competition. He thinks Klose could wrestle but hasn't seen enough to suggest Barboza is washed. He leans Barboza but is not confident enough to bet on him.
Big Brady picks Edson Barboza to win by second-round knockout. He notes Barboza is moving back up to lightweight, which should help his durability. He worries about Barboza's chin but thinks Klose doesn't have much power, with only two knockdowns in the UFC. He believes Barboza is the better striker and will knock out Klose, as Klose's path to victory is to sell out for grappling. He also mentions Klose's questionable durability and poor performance against Silva.
The host considers Klose one of the most underrated lightweights. He expects Klose to avoid Barboza's early finishing attempts, clinch him against the cage, wear him down, and grind out a decision win on the mat.
The Guru picks Drakkar Klose to win by decision, 29-28. He cannot trust Edson Barboza at this point in his career, citing Barboza's long layoff, injuries, and move back up to lightweight. The Guru notes that Barboza took a lot of damage in his last fight against Lerone Murphy and that Klose will grapple and use his physicality. He believes Klose can execute a 'tepid version' of the recipe to beat Barboza and win a decision, though Barboza may have moments of hurting Klose.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 79 of 242 | 32% | 79 of 242 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 220 of 364 | 60% | 259 of 410 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 5:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 25 of 53 | 47% | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 34 of 62 | 54% | 38 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 17 of 44 | 38% | 17 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 41 of 75 | 54% | 56 of 93 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 | |
| 3 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 11 of 42 | 26% | 11 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 48 of 79 | 60% | 52 of 86 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 | |
| 4 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 15 of 56 | 26% | 15 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 59 of 93 | 63% | 65 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 5 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 11 of 47 | 23% | 11 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 38 of 55 | 69% | 48 of 66 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 79 of 242 | 32% | 38 of 189 | 15 of 21 | 26 of 32 | 77 of 239 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 220 of 364 | 60% | 172 of 308 | 27 of 34 | 21 of 22 | 205 of 344 | 13 of 17 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 25 of 53 | 47% | 14 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 12 | 24 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 34 of 62 | 54% | 26 of 52 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 32 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 17 of 44 | 38% | 5 of 31 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 8 | 17 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 41 of 75 | 54% | 36 of 69 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 37 of 70 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Lerone Murphy | 11 of 42 | 26% | 5 of 32 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 10 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 48 of 79 | 60% | 40 of 70 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 43 of 73 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Lerone Murphy | 15 of 56 | 26% | 7 of 46 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 59 of 93 | 63% | 42 of 75 | 7 of 8 | 10 of 10 | 58 of 91 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Lerone Murphy | 11 of 47 | 23% | 7 of 41 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 38 of 55 | 69% | 28 of 42 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 35 of 51 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans Edson Barboza due to his veteran savvy, well-rounded skills, and recent win over a similar young striker in Sodiq Yusuff. He compares Barboza to Charles Oliveira in terms of danger everywhere. However, he worries about Barboza's age (38) and chin. Lerone Murphy is undefeated with good footwork and power, but Barboza's experience and ability to mix in takedowns could be the difference.
Cody acknowledges the similarities to the Yusuff fight but notes Murphy doesn't gas like Yusuff; Murphy conserves energy and improves in later rounds. He points out Barboza is 38 and has taken a lot of damage, and speed declines with age. Cody is concerned about Murphy's close split decision over Gabriel Santos, but ultimately picks Murphy, citing Father Time as an ally.
Murphy has potential and mixes his game well, with solid cardio and grappling. Barboza is 38 and cutting to 145, which may affect his durability. Murphy can use clinch and takedowns to put Barboza in uncomfortable positions. However, this is Murphy's first five-round fight, and Barboza's experience is a factor. Expects Murphy to grind out a decision.
Paul sees this matchup similar to Barboza's win over Sodiq Yusuff, where Barboza's veteran savvy and cardio allowed him to take over late. He notes Murphy hasn't been tested in five rounds and lacks the volume that Yusuff had. Paul believes Barboza is a tough out for prospects without stout wrestling, and Murphy's wrestling isn't elite enough to neutralize Barboza's striking.
The MMA Guru picks Edson Barboza to win by body kick TKO in round three or four over Lerone Murphy. He argues that Murphy is less powerful and less dangerous than Sadik Yusuf, who Barboza beat. He notes Murphy's tendency to edge by wins and lack of a finishing move, while Barboza has experience in main events and the cardio to break Murphy down. He expects Barboza's speed and technique to prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 1 | 178 of 351 | 50% | 206 of 397 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:56 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 1 | 164 of 324 | 50% | 178 of 347 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 1 | 42 of 80 | 52% | 55 of 103 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:15 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 42 of 79 | 53% | 43 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 0 | 31 of 65 | 47% | 33 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 29 of 58 | 50% | 29 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 1 | 32 of 68 | 47% | 42 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:04 | |
| 4 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 35 of 79 | 44% | 39 of 84 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 0 | 47 of 90 | 52% | 48 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 5 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 30 of 55 | 54% | 40 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 0 | 41 of 76 | 53% | 41 of 77 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 178 of 351 | 50% | 126 of 284 | 14 of 20 | 38 of 47 | 148 of 311 | 15 of 18 | 15 of 22 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 164 of 324 | 50% | 71 of 204 | 89 of 112 | 4 of 8 | 134 of 290 | 25 of 27 | 5 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 42 of 80 | 52% | 39 of 77 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 54 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 22 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 13 of 25 | 52% | 8 of 19 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Edson Barboza | 42 of 79 | 53% | 24 of 56 | 3 of 6 | 15 of 17 | 34 of 69 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 31 of 65 | 47% | 7 of 31 | 23 of 31 | 1 of 3 | 25 of 57 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Edson Barboza | 29 of 58 | 50% | 17 of 42 | 5 of 7 | 7 of 9 | 29 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 32 of 68 | 47% | 14 of 44 | 16 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 27 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | |
| 4 | Edson Barboza | 35 of 79 | 44% | 24 of 64 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 13 | 35 of 78 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 47 of 90 | 52% | 24 of 63 | 22 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 42 of 85 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Edson Barboza | 30 of 55 | 54% | 22 of 45 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 8 | 27 of 52 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 41 of 76 | 53% | 18 of 47 | 23 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 63 | 13 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo sees this as a razor-thin striking match where youth vs experience is the key factor. He believes Sodiq's speed and youth will give him a slight edge over the 37-year-old Barboza, who is still technical but may have slowed. He notes that if it were a well-rounded MMA fight he'd lean experience, but as a striking match he favors the younger fighter. He plans to just watch rather than bet, calling it even money.
Big Brady picks Sodiq Yusuff to win by KO in the third round. He notes that Edson Barboza is 37 years old and cutting to featherweight, which is taxing. He worries about Barboza's durability and cardio in a five-round fight, while Yusuff is younger and has power. He expects Yusuff to finish late as Barboza fades.
Cody picks Barboza, emphasizing his consistent high-level competition and ability to still perform at an elite level. He highlights Barboza's leg kicks, left hook, and durability, noting that he has never slowed down despite many wars. Cody questions Yusuff's durability and wrestling ability to get Barboza down, and believes Barboza's experience and power will prevail.
The host picks Sodiq Yusuff but is hesitant due to the long layoff and herniated disc issues. He notes Yusuff's power and patience, expecting him to land a big shot as Barboza slows down with age. However, he dislikes the minus 170-180 price and prefers to pass on betting. He predicts Yusuff by knockout.
Paul picks Barboza as the underdog, citing his elite striking, durability, and experience against top competition. He notes Barboza's ability to land big shots and his consistent performance despite age. Paul is concerned about Yusuff's durability and lack of high-level wins, and believes Barboza's volume and power will be too much.
The MMA Guru leans towards Edson Barboza over Sodiq Yusuff, calling it a close 50/50 fight. He cites Barboza's momentum, size advantage (4-inch reach, taller), and experience in main events. He questions Yusuff's chin, noting he got wobbled by Arnold Allen, and his long layoff due to spinal surgery. He also thinks Yusuff's win over Alex Caceres was mostly low kicks, which won't work against Barboza. However, he expresses frustration that underdogs often win in nonsensical ways, showing low confidence.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 1 | 21 of 33 | 63% | 21 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Billy Quarantillo | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 20 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 1 | 21 of 33 | 63% | 21 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Billy Quarantillo | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 20 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 21 of 33 | 63% | 13 of 25 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Billy Quarantillo | 19 of 42 | 45% | 16 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 21 of 33 | 63% | 13 of 25 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Billy Quarantillo | 19 of 42 | 45% | 16 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Billy Quarantillo, but emphasizes he needs to wrestle to win. He notes Barboza is the more technical striker and that Quarantillo cannot let Barboza settle into a striking pace. He references Barboza's win over Shane Burgos as a cautionary tale. He is not betting yet, calling Barboza 'super live'.
Big Brady picks Billy Quarantillo to win by late second-round knockout. He notes Barboza's age (37) and recent decline, while Quarantillo is durable and has high volume and pressure. He expects Barboza to look good early but fade, allowing Quarantillo to drown him with pace and power. He is not worried about Barboza's early knockout power.
Cody sees this as a classic case of Barboza starting hot and Quarantillo wearing him down. He notes Quarantillo's takedown accuracy is low (24%) but he shoots multiple times, and his superior cardio and ground game should take over in rounds 2 and 3. However, he's not confident pre-fight and prefers to bet Quarantillo live after round 1.
Connor picks Barboza, arguing that Quarantillo is too slow and too much of a slow starter to implement the pressure needed to beat Barboza. He notes that Barboza's early damage accumulation (body kicks, leg kicks) will prevent Quarantillo from building into the fight. Connor compares Quarantillo unfavorably to Shane Burgos, whom Barboza destroyed, and believes Barboza's thudding shots will land on Quarantillo's entire body in the first round.
Quarantillo's cardio and forward pressure will be the difference. Barboza has takedown defense issues and fades late. Quarantillo can survive early striking onslaughts and take over in later rounds with takedowns and ground-and-pound. Expect a finish in round 3 as Quarantillo's pace breaks Barboza.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting Quarantillo is hittable early but wears opponents down. He highlights Barboza's layoff and age (37) but acknowledges Barboza's first-round explosiveness. He thinks Quarantillo's wrestling may not be as good as previous Barboza opponents, but his volume and durability should carry him.
The MMA Guru picks Billy Quarantillo, emphasizing his well-rounded game, volume striking (7.88 strikes per minute), and grappling. He believes Quarantillo will close the distance, make it a war, and potentially finish Barboza, who is 37 and cutting to featherweight. He notes Barboza's power and experience but thinks Quarantillo's freshness and pressure will be key.
Zane picks Quarantillo, believing his relentless pressure and willingness to walk through fire will overwhelm Barboza. He notes that Barboza has historically struggled against pressure fighters who stay on him, and Quarantillo's madman mentality and one-size-fits-all aggression should be effective. Zane acknowledges Quarantillo is slower and less technical than previous Barboza opponents but thinks his psychological edge and constant forward movement will carry the day.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 16 of 37 | 43% | 23 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Edson Barboza | 1 | 34 of 47 | 72% | 182 of 209 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 11:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 1 | 14 of 18 | 77% | 47 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:48 | |
| 2 | Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 78 of 83 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:41 | |
| 3 | Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 2 of 14 | 14% | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 13 of 20 | 65% | 57 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:59 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Mitchell | 16 of 37 | 43% | 3 of 17 | 6 of 12 | 7 of 8 | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Edson Barboza | 34 of 47 | 72% | 28 of 40 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 29 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryce Mitchell | 11 of 19 | 57% | 2 of 5 | 4 of 8 | 5 of 6 | 11 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 14 of 18 | 77% | 10 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 7 | |
| 2 | Bryce Mitchell | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 7 of 9 | 77% | 6 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 7 | |
| 3 | Bryce Mitchell | 2 of 14 | 14% | 1 of 11 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Edson Barboza | 13 of 20 | 65% | 12 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 15 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
One will rarely ever find a more perfect example of a striker vs. grappler battle, when the highlight-reel aficionado Barboza (22-10, 16-10 UFC) squares off with unbeaten submission artist Mitchell (14-0, 5-0 UFC). Referee Mark Smith is on the call for this intriguing matchup at 145 pounds, and the men do not bothering to touch ‘em up before engaging. Mitchell throws a low kick, and Barboza is right there to return fire with a much heavier kick. Barboza attacks with another leg kick, and he backs away when Mitchell walks him down. Barboza sits down an inside leg kick, and just a few strikes in, Mitchell’s lead leg is already changing color. Mitchell gives chase, walking through another low kick, and he circles away as Mitchell tries to corner him. Mitchell aims a single kick to the body, and Barboza strings together a couple punches and a thudding low kick. Mitchell tries to grab Barboza but is out of range. Barboza scoots out of the way, and as he backs off, he gets cracked by a sudden right hand that sets him down. Barboza shakes off the cobwebs as “Thug Nasty” bears down on him, and he scoops up his foe’s legs and sets him down to the mat. In Barboza’s guard, Mitchell softens up the body with short punches, and he postures up to stack Barboza up when Barboza looks to open his guard and get offensive with it. From very close range, Mitchell thumps down a pair of elbows, and he uses effective top pressure to keep Barboza stuck with his neck on the wall and his back on the mat. Body to head goes Mitchell as he works Barboza over with light but constant strikes. Barboza tightens his guard, only to find an elbow zooming at his face, and he takes it flush and keeps absorbing punishment from below. Mitchell looks to sit up and drop down heavier blows, and as he does, the Brazilian kicks off and explodes back to his feet. Keeping a safe range, and hopping out of the way of a takedown entry from Mitchell, Barboza jumps around and scores a big leg kick. Missing with a spinning back kick, Barboza then chases after his man and gets off a right hand right before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Round 2
The featherweights are quick to get after it to start the second stanza, and Barboza blasts Mitchell’s inside calf. Although he gets a couple off, he leaves his leg out a little too long and has it snagged mid-air. From there, Mitchell hits a quick double, setting the Brazilian flat on his back on the open mat. Barboza keeps his guard tightly closed, and Mitchell does not mind, as he racks up control time and has his ground strike totals add up. Mitchell sits up every so often to elbow Barboza in the face, and then flattens him back down and punches him in the side. One such elbow slashes Barboza’s left eyebrow open, and it begins to bleed instantly. Barboza scoots his way to the fence, but Mitchell will not let him up. Smith calls for them to work, and Mitchell obliges with a powerful elbow from on top. Barboza tries to push off and scramble, but the smothering top control of the Arkansan has him nullifying Barboza. When Mitchell attempts to pass to mount, Barboza is able to buck him of momentarily. Barboza looks to stand up with the fence behind him, and as he does, Mitchell drags him right back down from behind. Barboza recovers position to get his guard back, but “Thug Nasty” is nasty with his ground-and-pound as he batters Barboza and slides over to three-quarter mount. Mitchell clubs Barboza with several right hands to the bloodied eye, and a small pool of crimson forms beneath Barboza’s head. Mitchell settles for half guard, where he pounds on Barboza until the last five seconds of the round. Barboza manages to kick Mitchell off again, and Mitchell lords over him until the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Round 3
The last round begins as Barboza appears to have a fire lit under his backside from his corner. Instead of throwing kicks, Barboza starts swinging heavy hands. Mitchell goes up high with a kick, and his foot bumps into Barboza’s shoulder and Mitchell falls to his back. Barboza does not oblige climbing into his guard, and he lets Mitchell stand up so he can slug it out with him. Barboza ducks a jumping switch kick, and he throws a right hand that Mitchell ducks perfectly. “Thug Nasty” nails a double, putting Barboza down to the canvas far away from the cage wall. Barboza closes up the guard, and Mitchell is happy as a clam in this position as this keeps him safe from any power strikes that come at him. In an effort to change things up, Barboza sets up a triangle choke from his high guard, and Mitchell lifts him in the air and slams him in the mat to break the leg grip. Mitchell comfortably lowers himself back in the guard, with sporadic punches on the bloody eye of his foe, until he stands up and stacks Barboza up. Barboza tries to kick off the hips, but he does not have the power to get Mitchell off of him any longer. Barboza scrambles and turns to set up a leg lock, but when this fails, Mitchell secures three-quarter mount with Barboza on his side. Mitchell begins to let a series of left hands go as Barboza cannot block his face, so the Brazilian twists and yanks his arm free but continues to get pounded by Mitchell. “Thug Nasty” starts to make things nasty again as he moves to half guard and starts raining down elbows. A few more strikes from the undefeated fighter put a stamp in this performance, and he will likely keep that 0 and put himself in line for big opportunities in the near future.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (30-26 Mitchell)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (30-26 Mitchell)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell (30-25 Mitchell)
The Official Result
Bryce Mitchell def. Edson Barboza via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-26, 30-27)
Angelo picks Bryce Mitchell but admits he doesn't love the pick and will root for Barboza. He notes that Mitchell's only path is takedowns and control, and that Barboza has 78% takedown defense. However, he compares it to Khabib vs Barboza where Khabib had success with relentless takedowns. He thinks Mitchell's grappling is good enough to win a decision.
Big Brady picks Bryce Mitchell to win, likely by submission in the third round. He notes that Mitchell's relentless takedown game and top control will be key, as Barboza has historically struggled against wrestlers like Khabib and Kevin Lee. Brady acknowledges Barboza's striking advantage but believes Mitchell will neutralize it by taking him down repeatedly. He mentions that Barboza is 36 and may not keep up with Mitchell's pace. Brady also notes that Mitchell has shown improvement in his grappling, as seen in his wins over Andre Fili and Charles Rosa.
Cody believes Mitchell has the exact style that causes Barboza problems: relentless pressure, wrestling, and grinding. He references the Amir Albazi fight as a template for how to beat Barboza by taking him down and controlling him. Cody acknowledges the striking disparity but trusts Mitchell's wrestling and strength to get the takedowns and avoid Barboza's power.
Daniel Levi is confident in Bryce Mitchell, citing his relentless takedown style. He argues that Mitchell will shoot takedowns from the opening bell and keep shooting until he gets them down, unlike Makwan Amirkhani who backed up. He references Kevin Lee's blueprint of walking Barboza down and taking him down, and notes that Barboza struggled to get back up. He believes Mitchell's composure in the Felder fight (where he was reversed but stayed calm) bodes well. He predicts Mitchell will dominate via ground and pound and win a decision, possibly a submission.
Barboza's striking, especially his leg kicks and power, is something Mitchell hasn't dealt with. Mitchell's path to victory is grappling, but Barboza has solid takedown defense and submission defense. The bigger cage helps Barboza maintain distance. Barboza can win by decision or even knockout if Mitchell gets reckless. The later the fight goes, the more Mitchell might land takedowns, but Barboza's experience should carry him.
Paul is skeptical of Mitchell's competition, noting he has fought low-level opponents and struggled against the one wrestler he faced (Bobby Moffitt). He argues Barboza has fought elite competition and has underrated takedown defense, citing Khabib going 4-for-13. Paul sees this as a coin flip and prefers the plus money on Barboza, believing Mitchell could get lit up if he can't secure takedowns.
The MMA Guru picks Bryce Mitchell over Edson Barboza, trusting Mitchell's relentless grappling and tough chin. He acknowledges Barboza's KO power and speed, predicting Mitchell may get dropped early but will wear on Barboza with takedowns and pressure. He references Barboza's cardio issues and Mitchell's ability to set up takedowns with strikes. He predicts a third-round arm triangle submission after taking mount.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giga Chikadze | 0 | 33 of 95 | 34% | 33 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 2 | 60 of 117 | 51% | 70 of 128 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Giga Chikadze | 0 | 10 of 26 | 38% | 10 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 17 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Giga Chikadze | 0 | 19 of 56 | 33% | 19 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 22 of 47 | 46% | 22 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Giga Chikadze | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 2 | 21 of 27 | 77% | 31 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giga Chikadze | 33 of 95 | 34% | 15 of 70 | 10 of 15 | 8 of 10 | 33 of 95 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 60 of 117 | 51% | 31 of 80 | 16 of 22 | 13 of 15 | 56 of 113 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Giga Chikadze | 10 of 26 | 38% | 4 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 10 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 17 of 43 | 39% | 6 of 27 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 8 | 17 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Giga Chikadze | 19 of 56 | 33% | 8 of 41 | 6 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 19 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 22 of 47 | 46% | 10 of 33 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 22 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Giga Chikadze | 4 of 13 | 30% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 21 of 27 | 77% | 15 of 20 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The moment we’ve all been waiting for has arrived, with respect to those participating on the 29th season of TUF. Two powerful, flashy strikers with eerily similar striking stats toe the line when Barboza (22-9, 16-9 UFC) faces Chikadze (13-2, 6-0 UFC). For Barboza, he can cement his place as a contender at featherweight; for Chikadze, he can announce himself to the world as a legitimate top-tier 145er. Referee Jason Herzog is holding down the fort for this one, and gloves are not touched before they are traded heavily and in high intensity. The first strike of the match comes from Chikadze, who lands a leg kick. Barboza returns fire with his own kick, and the featherweights are coiled and ready to strike. Barboza starts to walk Chikadze down, backing him up into the fence, and he is forced to try to check a quick leg kick. Barboza checks a body kick with a high knee, but an inside chopping kick lands. When Barboza fires off a leg kick, it gets checked as well. Chikadze goes high with a kick that brushes past Barboza’s head, and the Brazilian looks surprised as it zooms at him. Chikadze leaps in the air with a check flying knee, and Barboza just sees it coming in time to avoid it. When Barboza has a calf kick checked, he fires off another that does not get blocked. Barboza looks to feint his way in and he blocks a high kick and checks a body kick with his quick reflexes. Barboza wings an overhand left, and Chikadze is barely able to get out of the way lest it lop his head off. Chikadze spins with a kick to the body, and Barboza marches through it and lands a few punches. Barboza trips Chikadze on the way when Chikadze tries to press the action, and he stands back defiantly as Chikadze aims a flying knee. When Barboza connects with a leg kick, Chikadze points at his leg and then fires off two high kicks. Chikadze drills the body with a kick, and he might have Barboza smarting as Barboza chomps down on his mouthpiece and throws winging punches. Chikadze strides after him confidently, landing a few and evading the counters. Chikadze rips the body with a kick, and he targets the liver and points at Barboza. A high kick and an axe kick attempt from the Georgian conclude the kick-heavy round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chikadze
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Chikadze
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Chikadze
Round 2
The featherweights trade calf kicks initially, and Barboza is the one to try to throw hands as he swings a right hand. He times a Chikadze flying knee to kick him up the body, and he stands tall to score when Chikadze lands. Chikadze circles around the outer edge of the fence to chop at the Brazilian with kicks, and Barboza comes up short when trying to give chase. Chikadze connects with a left hand and a liver kick, and Barboza gives chase as he absorbs a stunning right hand. Barboza shakes it off and keeps pressuring Chikadze, where he lands a trio of punches on the way in. Chikadze lets loose a high kick and a liver kick in rapid succession, and the kick to the side keeps finding its home. Barboza scores a calf kick that makes the Georgian changes stances, and Chikadze whips up a high kick with his lead leg. Barboza rips the body with a right hand, and he checks the vaunted “Giga kick” with a high knee block. The Brazilian continues his assault on the body with big hooks and kicks, and Chikadze backs off right into an overhand right. Barboza plods forward as Chikadze appears to be slowing to a degree, allowing him to cut Chikadze off and set up strikes. Barboza nails the lead leg with a heavy kick, and Chikadze tries to return fire with an axe kick but he gets jabbed for his effort. Chikadze gets off a pair of punches as Barboza walks him down like a Brazilian Terminator, and Barboza keeps on drilling punches to the body. Chikadze spams a few axe kicks that hit nothing but his foe’s guard, and Barboza stabs his toes to the midsection. Barboza sweeps the leg, and Chikadze comes back at him with a single leg kick before the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barboza
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Barboza
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barboza
Round 3
Barboza takes the center of the cage and doubles up on a jab, and Chikadze is ready to fire back but misses the mark when Barboza ducks. Barboza sticks out a few more jabs as Chikadze backs away, and the Georgian scores a kick to the knee when Barboza tries to come at him. Chikadze blasts Barboza with a huge right hand, and Barboza is suddenly on the ropes as Chikadze walks him down to try to do damage. Barboza’s eye is busted up, and Chikadze charges with a barrage of punches. A few right hands knock Barboza back, and Barboza is in trouble and falls over to the ground. Chikadze looks to finish the job as he lands a few punches from on top, and Barboza holds on tight to clear the cobwebs. Barboza looks for a heel hook from his back as he is hurt badly, and when he sits up in it, the Georgian latches on to an anaconda choke out of nowhere. Barboza walks off the cage to break the grip of the choke, and he powers his way to his knees and then back to his feet.
Barboza is still on baby deer legs when he gets back up, and Chikadze takes note this and drops the hammer with a trio of punches that sends Barboza crashing back down to the canvas. Herzog has seen enough, sensing that Barboza may be out even if he is able to amble back to his feet.
“Ninja” successfully puts himself on the map with a wild performance over a perennial contender, and he thanks his opponent for the opportunity and the tough challenge. In his post-fight interview, Chikadze says he would be glad to fill in if a competitor in the featherweight title fight falls through, but if not, that there is a certain Hawaiian in his sights – Max Holloway. Should that striker’s delight come to fruition, we will be here for it, and we hope you are too.
The Official Result
Giga Chikadze def. Edson Barboza R3 1:44 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Barboza, citing his leg kicks as the difference, veteran savvy, and more tools (jiu-jitsu, experience). He notes Chikadze is the future but hasn't faced leg kicks. He has Barboza in his DraftKings lineup at 8200 and calls the fight razor thin.
Cody picks Barboza but is hesitant, noting Barboza's age (35) and the risk that Giga could have a breakout performance. He values Barboza's experience and durability, having faced top competition, while Giga's resume is softer. Cody is worried about Giga's cardio after seeing him slow in round three against Jamall Emmers, and thinks Barboza's volume and wrestling advantage could be key if he survives the early danger. He already bet Barboza at -110 and says he won't have high investment.
Jacob picks Chikadze, calling him an assassin who is on another level. He notes Chikadze is never in trouble and controls distance. He got Chikadze at +100 and has him in his lineup for five rounds, expecting a war. He also placed a half-unit bet on Chikadze in the third round.
Lock leans slightly to Barboza, citing his volume and pace advantage over Giga. He believes Barboza's durability at 145 has held up and that Giga's cardio issues will be exposed in a five-round fight. Lock expects Barboza to get a finish in the later rounds, specifically liking the under 4.5 rounds and Barboza by KO at +270. He notes Giga's power is dangerous early but thinks Barboza's experience and activity will be the difference.
Paul picks Barboza, citing Barboza's higher striking volume and Giga's cardio issues seen in the Emmers fight. He notes Barboza's wrestling advantage and thinks if Barboza gets through the first two rounds, he'll be even stronger. Paul is scared away from Giga by his third-round fade against Emmers. He also mentions the line moving toward Barboza but remains confident.
The Guru picks Edson Barboza over Giga Chikadze, citing Barboza's superior striking, experience in main events, and proven cardio at featherweight. He notes that Chikadze has close split decisions against Jamall Emmers and Brandon Davis, which are red flags. The Guru expects Barboza to chop Chikadze's legs with calf kicks and win a decision, possibly 4 rounds to 1. He also mentions Barboza's takedown option as a potential factor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 80 of 180 | 44% | 80 of 180 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Shane Burgos | 1 | 98 of 191 | 51% | 98 of 191 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 33 of 79 | 41% | 33 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Shane Burgos | 0 | 41 of 83 | 49% | 41 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 40 of 83 | 48% | 40 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shane Burgos | 0 | 39 of 82 | 47% | 39 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 7 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shane Burgos | 1 | 18 of 26 | 69% | 18 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 80 of 180 | 44% | 41 of 131 | 24 of 33 | 15 of 16 | 80 of 179 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Shane Burgos | 98 of 191 | 51% | 51 of 134 | 14 of 17 | 33 of 40 | 96 of 189 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 33 of 79 | 41% | 20 of 65 | 10 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 33 of 78 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Shane Burgos | 41 of 83 | 49% | 19 of 55 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 23 | 41 of 83 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Edson Barboza | 40 of 83 | 48% | 19 of 55 | 14 of 21 | 7 of 7 | 40 of 83 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Shane Burgos | 39 of 82 | 47% | 23 of 63 | 8 of 10 | 8 of 9 | 39 of 82 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Edson Barboza | 7 of 18 | 38% | 2 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Shane Burgos | 18 of 26 | 69% | 9 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 8 | 16 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Burgos has a phenomenal chin, high volume (7.31 strikes/min), and excellent cardio. Barboza struggles with pressure and has low output. Burgos will pressure Barboza, land more strikes, and wear him down. I expect a late knockout in the third round as the damage accumulates.
Cody is a Burgos fan and picks him confidently. He argues that Barboza has taken too much damage over his career and is slowing down. Cody believes Burgos will walk Barboza down, out-volume him, and win a decision. He notes that Burgos is younger and his wrestling and ground game are improving.
Daniel Levi picks Shane Burgos, emphasizing his high work rate, forward pressure, and durability. He notes that Barboza fades in later rounds and has been outworked by pressure fighters like Dan Ige. Levi thinks Burgos's chin can hold up to Barboza's early power, and that his constant pressure will break Barboza. He predicts a 29-27 decision or late TKO for Burgos.
The host picks Burgos with relatively high confidence after watching tape. He notes Burgos's pressure and forward movement will trouble Barboza, who struggles when backed up. He thinks Burgos has better volume and versatility, and that Barboza's leg kicks are a concern but Burgos can eat them. He predicts a decision win for Burgos.
Paul picks Burgos, noting that Barboza is past his prime and has taken a lot of damage. He believes Burgos will out-volume Barboza and win a decision. Paul mentions that Barboza's chin is questionable and he slows down in later rounds. He expects a close first round, then Burgos pulling away.
The MMA Guru picks Shane Burgos over Edson Barboza, citing Burgos's youth, reach advantage, and excellent chin. He believes Barboza will win the first round but slow down, allowing Burgos to take over in the second and third. He predicts a 29-27 decision for Burgos and suggests betting on a draw as a prop.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!