Career Averages - Max Holloway
Career Averages - Charles Oliveira
Max Holloway - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 0 | 26 of 45 | 57% | 73 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 50 of 66 | 75% | 110 of 137 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 4 | 0 | 20:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 10 of 14 | 71% | 19 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 4:30 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 16 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 13 of 15 | 86% | 24 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 4:40 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 18 of 23 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 4:29 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 11 | 81% | 25 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:16 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 28 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 12 | 75% | 24 of 27 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 26 of 45 | 57% | 18 of 36 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Oliveira | 50 of 66 | 75% | 37 of 51 | 7 of 9 | 6 of 6 | 24 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 27 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 8 of 13 | 61% | 5 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Oliveira | 10 of 14 | 71% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 5 of 7 | 71% | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Oliveira | 13 of 15 | 86% | 11 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 11 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Oliveira | 9 of 14 | 64% | 7 of 10 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 6 of 11 | 54% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Oliveira | 9 of 11 | 81% | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 5 of 9 | 55% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Oliveira | 9 of 12 | 75% | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo acknowledges that Charles has a clear grappling advantage and expects him to mix in takedowns to keep Max guessing, opening up his striking. He notes Max's all-time great volume and takedown defense, but believes the threat of takedowns will disrupt Max's rhythm. He calls it a slight lean, emphasizing that picks can change closer to the event.
Big Brady picks Max Holloway over Charles Oliveira for the BMF belt. He acknowledges Holloway's durability may be declining after the Topuria KO and being hurt by Poirier, but still trusts it more than Oliveira's, who has been finished nine times and gets hurt in every fight. Holloway has good takedown defense and cardio. Brady expects Holloway to stuff takedowns, put a pace on Oliveira, hurt him, and finish by third-round KO. He also mentions an Underdog prop: Holloway under 94.5 significant strikes.
Cody agrees with Paul, picking Holloway due to consistency, better boxing, and takedown defense. He mentions Holloway's durability and power at 155, and notes that Oliveira is dangerous but Holloway is the better all-around fighter. He predicts a first or second round knockout or a decision win.
Connor picks Max Holloway, citing Holloway's back-foot counterpunching and ability to control space, which neutralizes Oliveira's pressure. He notes Holloway's body punching from their first fight and his improved defensive wrestling, comparing the matchup to Islam Makhachev's win over Oliveira. Connor acknowledges Oliveira's toughness but believes Holloway's style is a nightmare for him.
Daniel Vreeland favors Max Holloway due to his elite cardio, volume striking, and historical preference in this matchup. He notes that Holloway sets significant strike records and has a proven track record, though he acknowledges Oliveira's dangerous submission threat and opportunistic finishing ability. Vreeland mentions that both fighters have been dropped recently, but he trusts Holloway's output down the stretch.
Holloway is the biggest bet of the year at 5 units. The host believes Holloway's superior striking volume (lands more than double the strikes per minute) and 83% takedown defense will neutralize Oliveira's grappling. He expects Oliveira to be competitive early but fade, with Holloway pulling away in later rounds. The host is surprised Holloway is not a bigger favorite, having placed the bet at 1.50 odds a week ago.
Lucrative James picks Max Holloway because he believes Holloway is the far superior striker with better distance control and volume. He notes that Oliveira's path to victory relies on hurting Holloway and jumping on a submission, but considers that a low-probability outcome. James also highlights Holloway's increased power at lightweight and his stylistic adaptation to fighting on the outside, while Oliveira's durability issues and tendency to get hurt make him vulnerable. He sees Holloway winning by TKO or decision, with the fight likely ending inside the distance.
Holloway should stop Oliveira's grappling and outwork him on the feet with volume. Oliveira needs a kick-heavy game to slow Holloway, but Holloway's jab and pressure will win rounds. The fight likely goes to decision, but the line is too high; Holloway should be closer to -150.
Paul picks Max Holloway, citing his superior boxing, technical abilities, and takedown defense. He notes that Holloway's volume and power at 155 lbs are key, and that Oliveira is hittable. He acknowledges Oliveira's danger but believes Holloway wins more often than not, possibly by knockout or accumulation of strikes.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira, believing he will take Holloway's shots and eventually submit him. He argues Oliveira has better wins (e.g., Poirier in his prime, Gaethje) and improved wrestling. He predicts a rear-naked choke in round two, citing Oliveira's power and grappling advantage.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Max Holloway. He emphasizes Holloway's body punching and back-foot countering as key, and notes that Oliveira struggles against fighters who can pressure him off the back foot, as seen in the Makhachev fight. Zane also mentions Holloway's excellent takedown defense, though he is curious to see it tested against Oliveira.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 1 | 198 of 375 | 52% | 201 of 378 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Dustin Poirier | 1 | 109 of 255 | 42% | 109 of 255 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 1 | 26 of 64 | 40% | 26 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 0 | 44 of 67 | 65% | 47 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:24 |
| Dustin Poirier | 1 | 25 of 43 | 58% | 25 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 0 | 38 of 61 | 62% | 38 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 21 of 49 | 42% | 21 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 0 | 44 of 84 | 52% | 44 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 22 of 68 | 32% | 22 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 0 | 46 of 99 | 46% | 46 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 25 of 63 | 39% | 25 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 198 of 375 | 52% | 103 of 253 | 64 of 80 | 31 of 42 | 182 of 351 | 0 of 1 | 16 of 23 |
| Dustin Poirier | 109 of 255 | 42% | 94 of 235 | 6 of 10 | 9 of 10 | 102 of 243 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 26 of 64 | 40% | 9 of 39 | 11 of 16 | 6 of 9 | 23 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 |
| Dustin Poirier | 16 of 32 | 50% | 12 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 44 of 67 | 65% | 31 of 52 | 11 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 31 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 16 |
| Dustin Poirier | 25 of 43 | 58% | 21 of 36 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 6 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 38 of 61 | 62% | 18 of 36 | 9 of 12 | 11 of 13 | 38 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Poirier | 21 of 49 | 42% | 15 of 41 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 21 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 44 of 84 | 52% | 23 of 57 | 15 of 18 | 6 of 9 | 44 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Poirier | 22 of 68 | 32% | 21 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 46 of 99 | 46% | 22 of 69 | 18 of 22 | 6 of 8 | 46 of 98 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Poirier | 25 of 63 | 39% | 25 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Max Holloway, but with low confidence. He notes that Dustin is the better all-around fighter but may be pressured by his retirement fight and home crowd, leading him to brawl instead of using his full skillset. He expects Holloway's volume striking to win a decision. He will not bet on this fight.
Big Brady leans Max Holloway, citing Holloway's improvement at lightweight and youth (33 vs 36). He worries about Holloway's chin after his first KO but believes Holloway's volume will be key. He notes Poirier's retirement and hometown advantage could sway a close decision, so he's not betting.
Connor believes Holloway has evolved into a more complete striker since their last fight, with improved footwork, counterpunching, and kicking game. He thinks Holloway was close to winning the second fight and that his cleaner combinations and pressure can overcome Poirier's power if he survives the turning points. He also notes Poirier's retirement talk as a potential factor that could affect his focus.
The host notes Poirier is up 2-0 in the series and believes his power punching approach will be more effective than Holloway's volume, referencing the second matchup where Poirier won 4-1 on scorecards. He expects Poirier to repeat that and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Max Holloway over Dustin Poirier, predicting a decision win. He cites Holloway's superior striking and the fact that Poirier is retiring after this fight, which may affect his intensity. The Guru also notes that Holloway nearly won their second fight and is now properly prepared at lightweight, unlike the short-notice rematch. He believes Poirier's striking has regressed due to focusing on takedown defense, while Holloway's striking remains sharp. He expects a competitive fight but sees Holloway as a step ahead.
Zane agrees with Connor that Holloway can win, citing Holloway's improved back-foot game and the fact that he was close in the second fight. He also points to Poirier's age and potential emotional state in his retirement fight as reasons Holloway might finally get the win. However, he expresses nervousness about picking against the trend of the first two fights.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 1 | 75 of 144 | 52% | 78 of 147 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 79 of 204 | 38% | 84 of 209 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 22 of 47 | 46% | 24 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 30 of 75 | 40% | 35 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 32 of 62 | 51% | 32 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 35 of 102 | 34% | 35 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ilia Topuria | 1 | 21 of 35 | 60% | 22 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 75 of 144 | 52% | 49 of 114 | 11 of 14 | 15 of 16 | 71 of 140 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Max Holloway | 79 of 204 | 38% | 47 of 151 | 13 of 30 | 19 of 23 | 79 of 204 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 22 of 47 | 46% | 13 of 38 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 22 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 30 of 75 | 40% | 17 of 56 | 7 of 12 | 6 of 7 | 30 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 32 of 62 | 51% | 20 of 47 | 5 of 7 | 7 of 8 | 32 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 35 of 102 | 34% | 23 of 79 | 3 of 13 | 9 of 10 | 35 of 102 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ilia Topuria | 21 of 35 | 60% | 16 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Max Holloway | 14 of 27 | 51% | 7 of 16 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Topuria (-230), Holloway (+190)
Round 1
One of the best fights the UFC could possibly make serves as the main attraction, and it is one for all the marbles. Topuria (15-0, 7-0 UFC) puts his featherweight strap and undefeated record on the line against former champ Holloway (26-7, 22-7 UFC), and excitement is at a fever pitch. No more introductions are needed. Referee Marc Goddard brings the gladiators to the center of the Octagon to touch gloves, and they do just that. It’s on with the show. Topuria stands in the middle of the cage and points to the ground, and Holloway motions a matador gesture to counter him. They do not brawl it out immediately. Topuria advances calmly instead, measuring the former champ and blocking a head kick and a few jabs. Topuria goes over the top with a right hand that misses the mark, and a second nearly lands as well. Holloway keeps active with jabs and body kicks, and he swipes out with a right hook that misses the mark. Topuria puts everything he has into a huge right hand, and Holloway is wise to it and pecks at him with sharp jabs. Topuria shoots in and lifts “Blessed” off his feet, driving him to the canvas with a solid double. Holloway wall-walks, and Topuria forced a mat return. Holloway stands once more and breaks away, and he checks a low kick and advances with a right hand. Topuria gives him a right to think about, but Holloway does not let him off the hook and pegs him with a pair of punches. Topuria chops at the front leg a few times, and he tags Holloway with a right hand. Holloway skirts out of the way before absorbing more than a few, and Topuria works his front leg with another hard kick. Holloway snaps out a jab, marking up Topuria’s face and coming up short with a front kick. Topuria reaches his target with a jab, and Holloway prods out with low kicks. Topuria tries to swing it out, and Holloway is composed enough to evade the blows and get off a long right hand on the way out. Holloway splits the guard with a front kick and has his guard high to defend the counters, and his head kick bounces off the guard. Holloway peppers his opponent with a low kick and jabs, and he follows a jab with a two. Topuria shakes it off and walks into a jab that makes him reset, and he dodges a spinning back kick in time. Topuria throws hammers, and he knocks an off-balance Holloway down to the mat in what was more of a slip or a trip than a clean strike, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Round 2
The featherweights clap hands to get started again, and Holloway fights immediately behind his jab. Topuria comes up short with a low kick and a right hand, and he gets caught on the way in with a jab. Holloway tags the champ with a clean right, and he trades low kicks with his opponent. Holloway goes to the head and body with jabs, and he takes one on the nose to back him away. Topuria wings power punches that hit air, but his calf kick finds its mark. Topuria clubs Holloway on the side of the head with winging punches, and he chains a calf kick after it. Topuria gets in a right hand and has a leg kick checked, and Holloway snaps his head back with a jab. Holloway steps in with a knee behind a few jabs, and he stomps at the front knee of his adversary. Topuria drills Holloway in the chin with a left hand, and he goes after the front leg with a kick again. Topuria’s punches connect cleanly on the jaw of the Hawaiian, who shows him what time it is with a left hook and a head kick on the other side. Topuria loads up on power strikes, and Holloway’s jabs are disrupting him just enough so that he does not get them full blast. Holloway dips a huge hook and jabs away, and he reaches out with a body shot. Topuria answers in kind, and he rolls with a right hook. Holloway kicks the side as he fires off jabs, and he checks a kick and kicks his man back. Holloway knees the side as Topuria barrels down on him, and he nails the champ with a short left and a power right. Topuria responds with a right hand, and he is met with multiple low kicks in response. Chants for both fighters are deafening in the building, and Holloway chains a number of punches together to decent effect. Topuria kicks the front leg and gets met with a body kick, and he eats a right hand when throwing one. Holloway scores a spinning back kick to the body, and Topuria shrugs at him before the round comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Round 3
It’s back to more face-punching as they resume again, and Holloway uses his punches to set up two low kicks and a third up high. Topuria walks through a leg kick to land a right on the chin, and Holloway scores a left hand as Topuria points at him. Topuria deploys a powerful leg kick, and a second one is met with long punches from the former champ. Holloway stomps at his foe’s front leg a few times, and Topuria does not lie it. Topuria winds up with a huge right hand, knocking the former champ back and stunning him. Holloway shells up and defends himself from an onslaught, and he is still rocked even as he counters and circles away. Topuria is on top of him ready to finish the job, further backing Holloway up to the wall and letting loose with a bombardment of punches. A ferocious left hand in the midst of a fierce flurry knocks Holloway down to the ground, and Topuria has achieved something no featherweight has ever accomplished. Topuria lowers himself down to blast Holloway with a number of hammerfists, and Holloway’s lights go out and get switched back on from the stream of blows. Goddard sees that Holloway has had enough and waves the fight off, and Topuria wanders away and motions sipping at tea. Incredible! Topuria has done the impossible, knocking out a fighter who had never before been stopped with strikes. Topuria is still undefeated, having notched back-to-back finishes that will stack up among the greatest ever performed in the division. Topuria leaps out of the cage to embrace anyone he can find, including UFC chief exec Hunter Campbell and television host Steve Harvey. As he returns to the cage, he receives a rose for his effort. Topuria welcomes all challengers, including former champion Alexander Volkanovski, who takes the cage to greet him. Topuria says he does not want to fight anyone right now, and instead wants to hug Volkanovski. He does just that. Full of love, Topuria wants to celebrate this victory with his family and team. It remains to be seen who is next for the champion, who cements himself as a star and one of the greats in his weight class because of this spectacular triumph. No matter who is next for "El Matador," we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Max Holloway R3 1:34 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Ilia Topuria as the final leg of his villain parlay with a full unit bet, but admits he would be happy to lose the bet if Max wins. He praises Topuria's speed, power, and wrestling entries, and believes he is the next generation of fighter. He thinks Topuria will be too fast and diverse for Max, but acknowledges Max's legendary striking and durability.
Big Brady thinks this is a very close fight. He believes Topuria will have early success but that Holloway's durability, cardio, and pace will take over in the later rounds. He notes that Holloway has never been knocked out and has absorbed the most significant strikes in UFC history, so he cannot pick anyone to knock him out. He predicts a split decision win for Holloway.
Cody picks Max Holloway as a plus 200 underdog, citing Holloway's unparalleled volume and pace, which he believes will overwhelm Topuria in the later rounds. He notes that Topuria has been outlanded in most of his fights before landing a knockout, and that Holloway has never been knocked out. Cody also mentions that Topuria's cardio slowed in the fifth round against Josh Emmett, and that Holloway's takedown defense is elite. He sprinkles on Holloway by KO in rounds 4 and 5 at long odds.
Connor picks Topuria, citing his relentless pressure and power advantage. He notes that Max Holloway, while still capable of greatness, has shown signs of age and accumulated damage, and his recent win over Gaethje was more a reflection of Gaethje's poor performance. Connor believes Topuria's pressure and power will be too much for Holloway, especially if Holloway tries to fight on the back foot.
Daniel Vreeland picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's power edge, durability, and grappling upside. He notes that Max Holloway has taken a lot of damage over his career and that Topuria's upward trajectory and maturity in the octagon give him the advantage. Vreeland also mentions that Topuria's boxing defense is superior and that he has the ability to finish Holloway, possibly becoming the first to knock him out. He is not concerned about Holloway's late-round cardio narrative, pointing to Topuria's performance against Josh Emmett in round five.
Lucrative James picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's massive power advantage and grappling upside. He notes that Topuria can close distance, pressure Holloway against the cage, and land heavy shots, and also has submission threats. He acknowledges Holloway's elite chin and takedown defense but believes Topuria's speed and clinical punching will be too much. He predicts a KO or decision win for Topuria.
Holloway can take Topuria's best shot and then come back with a volume-heavy approach that Topuria cannot keep up with. Topuria had great cardio against Josh Emmett but will not have that luxury against Holloway, who gets stronger in deep waters. Holloway will turn up the pressure in championship rounds and get a TKO finish in the fourth or fifth round.
Paul also picks Max Holloway, emphasizing that the fight is closer to 50-50 than the odds suggest. He argues that Topuria's power is real but he gets outlanded in most fights before landing a kill shot, and that Holloway's durability and volume will be key. Paul points out that Topuria's wins over Volk and Emmett came against opponents with durability issues, and that Holloway's experience and pace will expose Topuria. He also mentions that Topuria's reluctance to fight Holloway initially suggests doubt.
The Guru picks Ilia Topuria to win by decision, citing Topuria's superior boxing and power as the prototype to beat Max Holloway. He notes that Holloway struggles against shorter opponents, as seen in the Volk trilogy, and that Topuria's low kicks and ability to cut Holloway will be key. He also mentions Holloway's recent weight cut from lightweight and scar tissue as disadvantages. The Guru predicts Topuria will hurt Holloway early, open a cut, and survive a late rally to win a damage-based decision.
Zane picked Topuria going into the fight, citing his power and ability to press and stay on the front foot, while Holloway's willingness to work the back foot and counter would be too big a hill to climb. He noted that Holloway's height, length, and diversity of skills gave Topuria trouble early, but Topuria's huge power and deadly pocket countering were the equalizer. Zane emphasized that Holloway has never been a big power puncher and could not match Topuria's power, and that Holloway's style of taking one to give three eventually caught up to him.
Zane picks Topuria, agreeing with Connor that Topuria's pressure and power are key. He notes that Holloway's recent performances have been less assertive and that Topuria's ability to counter the jab and walk opponents down will be problematic for Holloway. Zane also mentions that Holloway's best chance is to pressure Topuria, but he's not sure Holloway will do that.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 0 | 103 of 199 | 51% | 103 of 199 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Gaethje | 1 | 181 of 309 | 58% | 181 of 309 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 12 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Gaethje | 0 | 25 of 39 | 64% | 25 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 0 | 18 of 26 | 69% | 18 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Gaethje | 0 | 30 of 53 | 56% | 30 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 0 | 20 of 38 | 52% | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Gaethje | 0 | 29 of 53 | 54% | 29 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 0 | 35 of 60 | 58% | 35 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Gaethje | 0 | 35 of 61 | 57% | 35 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 0 | 18 of 49 | 36% | 18 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Gaethje | 1 | 62 of 103 | 60% | 62 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 103 of 199 | 51% | 44 of 121 | 26 of 42 | 33 of 36 | 103 of 199 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Gaethje | 181 of 309 | 58% | 62 of 149 | 62 of 91 | 57 of 69 | 181 of 308 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 12 of 26 | 46% | 4 of 15 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 12 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Gaethje | 25 of 39 | 64% | 10 of 18 | 5 of 10 | 10 of 11 | 25 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 18 of 26 | 69% | 6 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 9 | 18 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Gaethje | 30 of 53 | 56% | 4 of 20 | 13 of 17 | 13 of 16 | 30 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 20 of 38 | 52% | 5 of 18 | 9 of 14 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Gaethje | 29 of 53 | 54% | 6 of 24 | 13 of 18 | 10 of 11 | 29 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 35 of 60 | 58% | 18 of 38 | 11 of 16 | 6 of 6 | 35 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Gaethje | 35 of 61 | 57% | 15 of 29 | 9 of 19 | 11 of 13 | 35 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 18 of 49 | 36% | 11 of 37 | 1 of 4 | 6 of 8 | 18 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Gaethje | 62 of 103 | 60% | 27 of 58 | 22 of 27 | 13 of 18 | 62 of 102 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gaethje (-175), Holloway (+145)
Round 1
Whether you believe the “BMF” title should matter or not, what bestowing that trophy on this next fight did was extend it to five rounds, and everyone should be thankful. It’s Justin Gaethje (25-4, 8-4 UFC) vs. Max Holloway (25-7, 21-7 UFC) in what many have pegged as a potential “Fight of the Year” entry. Nothing more needs to be said, other than that the lightweights receive instructions from referee Marc Goddard and that they touch gloves before fireworks ensue. Buckle up. The first strike likely of many comes from Holloway, who jabs the midsection and kicks it with his opposite leg. Gaethje bears down on him and loads up on an overhand right, missing the Hawaiian by inches. Gaethje sits down on a leg kick, and Holloway flicks out jabs to the body and head. Holloway pops a low kick on the thigh, and Gaethje hammers one back. Holloway sits down on a low kick and drives forward launching uppercuts. Gaethje slips back and knocks Holloway to his seat with a vicious calf kick. Holloway climbs back up without issue and bites on a feint from the BMF beltholder. Holloway strides in and lances a left hand down the middle, and Gaethje unloads and fires two big hooks. Holloway scores a clean uppercut, and he meets Gaethje in the middle and cracks him with another uppercut and a strong left hook. Gaethje keeps a solid poker face but he had his bell run in the exchange, and Holloway does not draw himself into a reckless exchange and instead measures with a front kick. Holloway prods out a left hand to intercept an advancing Gaethje, and he ignores a leg kick to mark up Gaethje’s nose. Chants for Holloway boom inside of the T-Mobile Arena, and he pokes out a leg kick and stays moving and rarely stays in the same place to not put himself in harm’s way. Holloway checks a kick, and he tosses out a half-hearted high kick. Gaethje responds with one that bounces off the shoulder, and Holloway nods at him. Holloway just misses on an uppercut, and he chips at the front leg with two kicks to the knee. Holloway checks another kick and unleashes a left and a stern right hand, and Gaethje chambers and fire a massive right hand that skims past the cheek. Holloway lunges forward with a right hand to the body, and Gaethje stumbles and gets back upright. Holloway high-fives him to make sure he is good to go, and Gaethje is fine. Holloway jabs with his foot, and a spin kick on the nose sends Gaethje flying. As the cage door opens to bring in corners for the middle of the round, Gaethje nearly falls out of the cage itself. Gaethje adjusts his nose that might have suffered some damage from the kick, and the tense round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Shane Clifford scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Round 2
Gaethje appears overly concerned about his nose to begin the round, and it starts tentatively between the two. As Holloway sticks out a few jabs, blood streams from it, and Gaethje is not happy about it. Gaethje loads up on a huge right hand, and Holloway barely slides out of the way in time. Holloway rifles out jabs to the nose, and he chains two together before releasing a high body kick. The crowd is deafening with calls for Holloway, and Gaethje absorbs a little of the energy to land a powerful leg kick. Holloway gives him one back, and he reaches out to throw hands as Gaethje comes in swinging aggressively. Holloway stretches his finger out, and it jams deep into Gaethje’s eye. Goddard sees it and immediately calls time, and Gaethje is not about to stop because of some eye damage. After about 45 seconds, Gaethje declares he is good to go, and the fighters share a glove touch before getting after it. Gaethje lands a body kick, and Holloway does too. Gaethje winds up and slings a leg kick that Holloway partially checks. Holloway jabs the body and wraps a kick up that slaps into the BMF beltholder’s armpit. Gaethje slides to the side and adjusts his nose, and he springs forward with a right hand and a low kick. Holloway stands firm in front of him and continues targeting the body with long punches. Gaethje looses a right hand as Holloway pokes his hand out, and Holloway immediately apologizes and Gaethje gets time to recover. Goddard asks Holloway to be careful, and Gaethje is irritated but only takes 20 seconds before going back to it. Gaethje releases a heavy leg kick, and Holloway can only partially defend against it. Gaethje lashes out with a right and a left, missing the mark by a small margin. Holloway pushes out a teep kick and goes after a jab to the midsection, and Gaethje punishes him with a calf kick at the right time. Holloway raises his leg up a few times to take some of the pain away, and he surges into action with a pair of clean punches. Gaethje gets away with another stunning calf kick, and Holloway reaches him back with two punches. Holloway spins with a kick, and he tosses up high a body kick as the two brawl to the conclusion of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Shane Clifford scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Round 3
There is a touch of gloves between the fighters to get started. Gaethje parries one punch, but Holloway lands a second to the midsection. Gaethje chops at his front leg, and Holloway pitches two back. Holloway lets go with a right hand to the sternum, and he kicks Holloway in the side and takes one right back. Gaethje whips a kick at him, and it buzzes past his opponent. Holloway has a body kick graze the cup, and Gaethje shakes it off and is fine. Gaethje stabs his toes at the midsection, and Holloway jabs him in the face. When Gaethje advances, Holloway reaches him with a clean uppercut. Gaethje batters the calf with another vicious kick, and Holloway’s do not nearly have the same impact. Gaethje scores a check left hook, and front kicks from both men go flying. Holloway beans Gaethje with a one-two and he blasts Gaethje with a spinning back kick that lands on the face. Gaethje tries to fire back, and Holloway chains a number of punches that drop Gaethje to a knee. Gaethje climbs back up and swings with bad intentions, and a low kick nearly compromises the former featherweight king as his leg swells up badly. Gaethje clears the cobwebs and backs away from a lunging combination, and he ducks down and a spinning back kick catches him flush in the ribs. Gaethje steels himself and eats a right hand, and he marches Holloway down and tries to unleash the thunder. Holloway keeps moving, circling to the right way to avoid the worst of the power. Gaethje kicks him in the shoulder, and Holloway comes back throwing with a left hand. Holloway gets in an uppercut, and Gaethje unloads a right hand and a low kick in response. Holloway rips a straight right hand to the midsection, and he releases a right hand that skims past Gaethje’s ear. They clash together when throwing hands violently, and Gaethje gathers himself and checks a leg kick. Gaethje kicks the body, and Holloway does the same to mirror what Gaethje does to him. Gaethje releases two more high kicks that are block before the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Shane Clifford scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Round 4
The championship rounds are reached, and they begin with a fist bump. They hand-fight with one another before Gaethje pushes out a front kick. Holloway doubles up on the same kick, leading Gaethje to slam his shin on Holloway’s swollen calf. Holloway rips a right hand to the midsection, and he kicks on the other side as Gaethje tries to catch it but releases the leg. They trade body shots, and Gaethje whizzes past with a mighty one-two. Holloway lands a body kick and scores two big punches, and Gaethje whirrs into action with a barrage of heavy punches punctuated by two big right hands. Holloway marks the face up, and he forces Gaethje to buckle so he can work the body. Holloway jabs up the face, continuing to damage Gaethje’s busted nose, and Gaethje reels when he absorbs the blows but is more than willing to ruthlessly sling leather back at him. Gaethje chops down the front leg once more, and Holloway slides away from the other blows and lands a few of his own. Gaethje catches the Hawaiian standing still, landing several punches in rapid succession before Holloway can get away. “The Highlight” further batters the front leg, and Holloway responds with an accurate uppercut. Gaethje comes up short with a haymaker, allowing Holloway to roll and counter with a right hand. Holloway steps in with a knee and eats the end of a left hand with little effect. Gaethje beats down the front leg, and Holloway ignores the pain to put three punches to together to the body and head. Gaethje uncorks a bomb of a right hand drops Holloway to his seat, in what could register as the first knockdown in Holloway’s UFC career. Holloway pops right back up and fights behind his jab, making sure not to eat any unnecessary power shots while landing his own. They both lash out with body kicks, and Gaethje puts out a front kick for good measure. Gaethje smacks Holloway with a left hand, and he stings Holloway with a left and a right before the exciting round wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Shane Clifford scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Round 5
There is a shared fist bump, and a sharp inhale from the attendees of the T-Mobile Arena for what could be a ridiculous fifth and final frame. Gaethje uses his own jab, and Holloway meets him with a head kick that knocks Gaethje back several steps. Gaethje ducks a looping left hand, square into an uppercut waiting for him. He pays it no mind and jabs the body to follow it with a right over the top. Holloway spins with a kick that slides off Gaethje’s body, and he recovers and lines up two punches down Broadway. Gaethje scoops down to the Earth’s core to come up with a ferocious uppercut, and it blazes past Holloway and singes his hair. Holloway attacks, entering vintage “Blessed” mode by chaining well over a dozen punches together to the head and body. Gaethje responds with massive hooks, and Holloway spins with a back kick to the ribs. Gaethje takes a deep breath and allows Holloway to reach him with a right hand. Gaethje swipes out with a left, and Holloway’s spinning back kick again finds its home. Gaethje goes high with a kick that is blocked, and Holloway dings him with a right hand and jumps with a spin kick that catches “The Highlight.” Gaethje sits down on a low kick and jabs out with his hands, and Holloway bloodies his nose with a short blitz. Holloway ducks and digs a right hand to the body and a left to the head. Holloway connects with a solid left on the forehead, and he stomp kicks Gaethje’s knees coming in. Gaethje walks into a spin kick that connects cleanly, and he hits air when Holloway slips away. Holloway unloads with a painful kick to the body, and he strings a few more punches together. Gaethje tries to kick him upside the head, and Holloway blocks it and jumps at him with a knee. Gaethje kicks the lead leg, and Holloway is in trouble after all of this damage sustained. As Holloway hears that it’s time to power up, he points to the ground and signals that a tremendous brawl is about to ensue. Gaethje meets him in the middle, and with about 15 seconds left, everything they have left is unleashed in the Octagon. Gaethje slings violently, and Holloway does the same. Both men blast one another with hellacious power, knocking one another around the cage in a slugfest perfectly representing the “BMF” name. Holloway ducks down and channels all of his remaining energy into his right fist. “Blessed” releases it and smashes it into Gaethje’s temple, and Gaethje slumps to the ground on his face, completely annihilated. Holloway did it! With maybe one second left in a fight he was likely going to win, Holloway threw everything in the air and let the chips fall where they may. Absolutely incredible! Max Holloway is the baddest mister falcon in the UFC, and he did it in a way that will live forever on highlight reels. “Knockout of the Year” is likely well and sewn up now. The triumphant Hawaiian calls for championship fights at featherweight or lightweight, and with Alexander Volkanovski not the champ of the former, he can call his shots practically anywhere he wants. He also demands double bonus money for “Fight of the Night” and “Performance of the Night.” Give the man what he wants, for he is a superstar.
The Official Result
Max Holloway def. Justin Gaethje R5 4:59 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Justin Gaethje, citing his power and wrestling as the edge. He notes Max Holloway has volume and speed, and the five rounds help Max, but Gaethje's power and wrestling give him a slight advantage. He calls the -200 odds too wide and advises against parlaying Gaethje.
Cody believes Max Holloway is a legendary fighter but is undersized at lightweight. He points out that when Holloway jumps up, he lands volume but the bigger opponents land the more damaging shots, as seen in the Dustin Poirier fights. Gaethje is the bigger, stronger man with power and leg kicks. Cody notes Gaethje's durability and that he's been fighting the best of his career recently. He expects Gaethje to attack the leg and land the bigger hooks, and thinks Holloway will have to outpoint him for 25 minutes, which is unlikely. Cody predicts Gaethje gets the job done, likely by decision.
Daniel Vreeland picks Justin Gaethje, citing Gaethje's size, power, and recent form. He notes that Holloway's move up to lightweight didn't go well before, and that Gaethje hits much harder. He also mentions that Gaethje is fighting smarter now, which plays into his advantage.
Daniel Vreeland picks Max Holloway to win the BMF title, citing his superior cardio, five-round experience, and ability to make adjustments on the fly. He believes Holloway's volume and durability will overwhelm Gaethje in the later rounds, and notes Holloway's improved grappling as a potential factor. He is concerned about Gaethje's leg kicks but trusts Holloway's chin and recovery.
Jeff Fox picks Justin Gaethje, agreeing with Vreeland. He notes that Holloway's path to victory is narrow, relying on volume and pressure, but Gaethje matches that. He mentions that Gaethje's punches are much harder and that he will steal rounds with power shots. He also notes that Gaethje is fighting safer now, which helps him.
Lucrative James discusses the fight as a banger but does not make a pick. He mentions that many people think it will go the same way as Holloway's last loss at 155 to Dustin Poirier, but he is not sure. He says he will have a separate analysis video coming soon. He also notes he is looking at the odds as a gambler but does not reveal a side.
Holloway's ability to go into deep waters and turn on the pressure will allow him to pull away. Gaethje has lost in championship fights in the third or fourth rounds when opponents put pressure and output on him. Holloway will overwhelm him with a barrage of shots, similar to Dustin Poirier and Eddie Alvarez, and get a stoppage in rounds 3-5.
Paul has never liked Max Holloway at lightweight, citing his size disadvantage. He notes that Gaethje will attack the legs heavily and that Holloway has never faced a leg kicker like Gaethje. Paul mentions Holloway's volume is unmatched but his opponents land the stiffer, more damaging shots, which judges favor. He references the Dustin Poirier fights where Holloway outlanded Poirier but lost because Poirier's shots were harder. Paul sees Gaethje as the rightful favorite and expects him to win, likely by decision.
The MMA Guru picks Max Holloway to win by third-round TKO, citing Holloway's volume and ability to capitalize on Gaethje's two-punch sequencing. He questions Gaethje's knockout power, noting he hasn't knocked out elite competition with punches. He believes Holloway's range, kicks, and durability will be key.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 2 | 75 of 128 | 58% | 75 of 128 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 34 of 124 | 27% | 35 of 126 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 0 | 34 of 55 | 61% | 34 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 15 of 50 | 30% | 15 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 1 | 36 of 62 | 58% | 36 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 16 of 57 | 28% | 17 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 1 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 3 of 17 | 17% | 3 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 75 of 128 | 58% | 34 of 77 | 31 of 35 | 10 of 16 | 71 of 124 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 34 of 124 | 27% | 25 of 110 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 6 | 34 of 122 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 34 of 55 | 61% | 12 of 28 | 14 of 15 | 8 of 12 | 34 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 15 of 50 | 30% | 9 of 40 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 5 | 15 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 36 of 62 | 58% | 18 of 40 | 16 of 18 | 2 of 4 | 33 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 16 of 57 | 28% | 13 of 53 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 5 of 11 | 45% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 3 of 17 | 17% | 3 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 15 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident Holloway will win, citing his striking volume, pressure, takedown defense, and championship experience. He notes that Holloway is an 8-to-1 favorite but he won't bet that price. He expects Holloway to dominate the striking exchanges and defend takedowns, potentially setting up another title shot.
Big Brady sees no clear path to victory for the Korean Zombie, as Holloway has superior volume, takedown defense, and durability. He notes that Zombie has looked bad in recent fights, taking significant damage against Volkanovski and Ortega. He expects Holloway to overwhelm Zombie with strikes, leading to a late-round knockout or corner stoppage.
Cody sees Holloway as a clear winner due to his legendary durability and volume striking. He notes that Holloway's speed and output will overwhelm the Korean Zombie, who is on a retirement fight and has shown decline. Cody expects Holloway to win by decision but also considers late-round finishes possible. He mentions using Holloway as a parlay anchor but warns that the minus 800 price is steep.
Daniel picks Max Holloway, citing his insane volume and output over five rounds. He notes that Holloway's path to victory is clear through sheer strike volume, while the Korean Zombie's only chance is a counter-striking power approach. He mentions that Zombie is 36 and coming off a brutal beating from Volkanovski, and that Holloway is the younger, more durable fighter. He expects a decision win for Holloway.
James is confident Max Holloway wins, believing he can finish the Korean Zombie whenever he wants. He notes Zombie hasn't looked good recently and that Holloway's volume and leg kicks will be too much. He considers Holloway by KO at -145 but passes due to the possibility of a decision or friendly fight. He thinks Holloway could finish early or late.
The host emphasizes Holloway's durability, cardio, and volume striking, and believes he will pressure the Korean Zombie and win a decision. He notes that Holloway is only 31 and has a lot to prove. The host mentions the over/under was steamed to over 2.5 and expects the fight to go the distance. He likes the Holloway by decision prop at +165.
Paul agrees Holloway wins but notes he's slowing down and more vulnerable than in the past. He points out that Holloway has taken significant damage in recent fights and may not be the same fighter, but the Korean Zombie is at the end of his career and lacks the tools to exploit that. Paul expects Holloway to win by decision or late finish, but warns that the price is too high for a straight bet.
The MMA Guru picks Max Holloway over the Korean Zombie, citing style matchup issues. He explains that Holloway struggles against shorter opponents who move side-to-side and wrestle, but the Korean Zombie is a flat-footed, linear boxer who doesn't throw leg kicks. He notes Holloway's activity and youth (31) compared to Zombie's layoff and age (36). He predicts a late-round standing TKO, similar to the Volk fight but with more volume.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 0 | 147 of 262 | 56% | 149 of 264 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Arnold Allen | 0 | 76 of 225 | 33% | 80 of 229 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 0 | 27 of 62 | 43% | 27 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Arnold Allen | 0 | 11 of 33 | 33% | 11 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 0 | 25 of 49 | 51% | 25 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Arnold Allen | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 19 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 0 | 33 of 51 | 64% | 33 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Arnold Allen | 0 | 14 of 45 | 31% | 14 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 0 | 29 of 52 | 55% | 29 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Arnold Allen | 0 | 12 of 39 | 30% | 12 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 0 | 33 of 48 | 68% | 35 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Arnold Allen | 0 | 20 of 66 | 30% | 24 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 147 of 262 | 56% | 77 of 180 | 42 of 48 | 28 of 34 | 146 of 261 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Arnold Allen | 76 of 225 | 33% | 48 of 173 | 18 of 36 | 10 of 16 | 76 of 225 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 27 of 62 | 43% | 13 of 46 | 9 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 27 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Arnold Allen | 11 of 33 | 33% | 4 of 21 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 8 | 11 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 25 of 49 | 51% | 11 of 30 | 8 of 9 | 6 of 10 | 25 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Arnold Allen | 19 of 42 | 45% | 10 of 26 | 6 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 19 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 33 of 51 | 64% | 20 of 37 | 7 of 7 | 6 of 7 | 33 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Arnold Allen | 14 of 45 | 31% | 11 of 39 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 14 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 29 of 52 | 55% | 12 of 33 | 10 of 12 | 7 of 7 | 29 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Arnold Allen | 12 of 39 | 30% | 6 of 31 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 33 of 48 | 68% | 21 of 34 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 32 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Arnold Allen | 20 of 66 | 30% | 17 of 56 | 2 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holloway (-175), Allen (+150)
Round 1
The featherweight championship trilogy for Holloway (23-7, 19-7 UFC) did not go his way, dropping three matches to king Alexander Volkanovski, and now “Blessed” will try to earn an unprecedented fourth crack at him. On the other hand, like excellent fighters at lightweight (Beneil Dariush) and welterweight (Belal Muhammad), Allen (19-1, 10-0 UFC) cannot seem to buy a title shot despite an outstanding win streak of 10 straight. Should “Almighty” get past the Hawaiian – Holloway has not lost a non-championship outing in nearly a decade – it should be more than enough to earn him the coveted opportunity to vie for a belt. One thing is certain: This fight should be electric. Referee Jason Herzog is on the call for the last fight of the night, and the two combatants are amped up but glad to touch gloves before the face punching begins. Allen is the aggressor to lead off, with a few leg kicks and jabs. Holloway hops around on the outside, dodging kicks and staying loose. Allen lets go with a body kick, but it is low and bounces off the cup. Herzog pauses the fight to let the Hawaiian get his wind back, but Holloway only needs 15 seconds before he is good to go. Holloway scores a chipping leg kick and two one-twos, and he blocks a head kick and gives one right back. Holloway digs a right to the head and left to the body, and he slides back out of harm’s way in time to avoid a counter. Allen connects cleanly with a left hand, and Holloway absorbs it without batting an eye. Holloway jabs to the body and eats a low kick, and he keeps his guard up from one up high. Holloway slips a jab to sneak one in, and he plants two fists on the Brit’s mug. When Allen misses on another high kick, Holloway tunes him up with three fast punches. They both land strikes on the outside, and Allen raises his arms up to reset. Holloway stomps at the knee with a kick, and he keeps scooting around the outer edge and away from the high kick. Holloway blocks a body kick, throws one back and ends the combination with a few punches. Holloway sneaks a left over the guard, and he leans back as a head kick whizzes past him. The two men clash leg kicks together, and Allen gives chase with a left hook that misses the mark. Holloway backs Allen up with a short combination, and Allen gathers his thoughts and flicks out a jab. Allen reaches his foe with a left over the top, and Holloway spins all the way through with a kick that glances off Allen’s midsection. Holloway times a body kick and a left hand, surprising Allen but not stunning him. Holloway slips a punch, moves, and reaches up with a head kick right before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Round 2
The fighters half-heartedly touch ‘em up to start off the second stanza, and he shifts to the side when Allen advances with a left hook. Allen aims a pair of kicks to the side, and he gets tripped up and a front kick clicks off the cup. Holloway shakes it off and they do not break, and Allen walks him down and slugs him in the face with a monster left hand. The Hawaiian tanks it and tries to trade back, and he gets clubbed again with a powerful left. Allen slows his barrage when Holloway sticks out a right hand, but he times a left over the jab to tag Holloway again. “Blessed” smacks the lead calf a few times, and it is turning red as Allen surges forward. Allen chambers and fires another left, but Holloway rolls with this one and is not overly concerned. Holloway splits the guard with a jab and marks up Allen’s nose, and he blocks head kick to return one. Holloway jabs the body as he reaches out, and he dodges a heavy strike and avoids a high kick that soars after it. Holloway strings three punches together while Allen is resetting, and he jabs to break up Allen’s looping punches. Holloway wings a right hand, and he follows it with three punches to the head and body. Holloway switches stances repeatedly to give Allen pause, and he hops in with a piercing jab. Allen whiffs on a left hand and connects with a front kick, and he takes a flush body kick that lands with an audible thud. Holloway gets caught with a left hook, and he flings a kick up high and throws one from the other leg that slips under the armpit. Holloway spins with a hook kick, and the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Round 3
Allen starts off Round 3 pushing the pace, and he walks into a quick right hand from “Blessed.” Allen returns fire, and his nose is showing some wear. Holloway lines up three punches on the jaw, and Allen has to take a second to gather his thoughts. Allen loads up on a right hook and a big left, and Holloway sees them and defends from the brunt of the damage. Allen gives chase with power punches, and Holloway jabs at him to the head and midsection. Holloway takes a strike to cut the inside of his eyebrow on his left eye, and he dodges the vicious swings to stay safe. Allen blocks a head kick and tags Holloway with two long left hands, and Holloway reaches him with a straight right to the body before leaping back. Holloway slides a kick up high and is backed off with a check right hook, and he slips several punches and sinks in another body kick. Holloway sends Allen backing away with a short combo of punches to bloody the nose, and the Brit waves Herzog off from a possible uncalled foul. Holloway slams his shin on the calf to make Allen’s knee turn in, and he stands right in the pocket to trade. Allen throws a high kick, and Holloway guards it and secures an unblocked kick to the midsection. Allen takes one more heavy kick, and Holloway closes in and gets off a step-in elbow. Holloway flashes out a jab and two punches when Allen bears down on him. Holloway spins with a back fist, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Round 4
The fighters tap hands to start off the championship rounds, and he races forward to engage. Allen scores a few body shots before backing off, and Holloway lets him so that he can work on the welting calf of his opponent. Holloway jabs the nose, and he walks through a head kick to score a right hand down Broadway. Holloway slows Allen coming forward by pushing off Allen’s knee to potentially hyperextend it, and he darts back when Allen springs into attack mode. Holloway gets off one more kick to the body, and he spins with a kick that misses the mark. Holloway pops Allen with three punches in rapid succession, and he rips the body with a left. Allen gives him one back with a solid right hand, but it is one-and-done while Holloway keeps combinations flowing. Holloway keeps kicking at the knee, and he digs another straight hand to the breadbasket. Chants for “Holloway” rain down in the building as he delivers one more gutbusting kick, and Allen wears it well but is heavily marked up all over. Holloway jumps in, jabs the body, and jumps away. Allen catches a kick and tries to throw Holloway down, and when the Hawaiian will not go down, he tosses a head kick at him. Holloway blocks and circles away, and he guards a second head kick that soon follows. Holloway strides in with an elbow, and Allen catches him with a right. As soon as he does, Holloway is amped up and gives him one right back. Holloway slams a kick to the ribs, and he is answered with a powerful left hook. The former champ does not flinch, and he spins with a wheel kick and drops to a knee. Holloway climbs back up and works the body with a few punches, and he pecks at the knee a few times with his shin or the ball of his foot. Holloway goes up high with a kick, and Allen lunges with a left and gets drilled upside the head with a kick. Allen rushes out with a spin kick, and Holloway concludes the round with a high kick that wraps around the guard.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Round 5
The fighters clap hands to begin the final round, and Allen is ready to throw hammers. He chases Holloway around, knocking him around with big hooks. Allen stings the former champ with a left hand, and Holloway wears it well and escapes. Holloway steps back from an elbow to reach him with a knee, and he spins with an elbow that smashes Allen right on the jaw. Allen takes his foot off the gas when absorbing this heavy blow, and Holloway kicks his side. Allen swings for the fences but cannot reach Holloway with this exchange, and Holloway stands in front of him and puts several punches on the chin. Holloway does work on the lead knee and calf, and he digs a kick to the body that makes Allen rush in and clinch up with him. Holloway pushes him off and gains space, and he kicks the body again and knees it for good measure. Allen lashes out with a right hand, and Holloway dips away from the subsequent blows. Allen kicks Holloway in the head twice, and “Blessed” absorbs them and takes a few more heavy punches as he escapes. Allen lumbers into a winging left hook, and he tosses forth a head kick that slides off the guard. Allen is met with a one-two when trying to go forward again, and Holloway intercepts him with a knee to the ribs. Holloway kicks the side once more, and he ducks a kick that skims his hair. Holloway rolls with looping, dangerous shots, and Allen is emptying the gas tank and takes a spinning back kick to the body. When Holloway lands another kick to the body, he falls over, and Allen lets him up to throw hands. Allen gets too close and ties up, and his mouthpiece flies out. Herzog replaces it while the two are clinched, and Allen tries for a body lock takedown. “Blessed” remains upright and pushes away with seconds to spare. In typical Holloway fashion, he lets the final seconds turn into a mighty brawl. Allen hurts Holloway with an elbow, and Holloway blasts him with a stream of punches that hurt Allen and put him down to a knee. Allen pops back up, looking to trade leather, but time expires. This is a terrific fight in the books, and it was a close one that lived up to the expectations. Even in defeat, Allen’s stock should not fall far, as Holloway is one of a kind and still has not lost a non-title fight in almost 10 years. Next week, the UFC goes back to the Apex with a show featuring a potential heavyweight title eliminator, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen (48-47 Holloway)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Allen (48-47 Holloway)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Allen (48-47 Holloway)
The Official Result
Max Holloway def. Arnold Allen via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
Angelo picks Max Holloway, citing his incredible volume, experience, and size advantage. He notes Holloway is only 31 and has only lost to Volkanovski and Poirier. He acknowledges Holloway has absorbed a lot of damage and his chin may give out eventually, but until then he's riding with him. He has no bet on the main event, preferring to watch without wagering.
Big Brady picks Max Holloway to win by knockout in the fourth or fifth round. He highlights Holloway's unmatched volume and durability, noting that his only recent losses are to Alexander Volkanovski. He believes Arnold Allen's only path to victory is a knockout, which is unlikely given Holloway's chin. He expects Holloway to break Allen late.
Cody acknowledges Holloway's mileage and potential regression, but trusts his proven five-round cardio, durability, and volume. He notes Arnold Allen's low output historically and questions whether Allen can maintain high output for five rounds. He sees Holloway as still the superior fighter, though he admits Allen is improving and could win in a few years.
Connor picks Holloway but expresses hesitation, noting that Allen's southpaw style and counter-punching could pose problems similar to Poirier's approach. He acknowledges Holloway's wear and tear from a long career and many wars, but ultimately trusts Holloway's proven track record against top competition. Connor feels Allen has not yet shown he can maintain the necessary pace and composure for five rounds against Holloway.
Holloway's output and durability will overwhelm Allen, who has benefited from favorable matchmaking and low activity. Holloway's only recent losses are to Volkanovski, and he still performed well against Kattar and Rodriguez. Allen's low output style will be exposed by Holloway's volume and pressure. Expect Holloway to finish late, possibly in rounds 4 or 5.
Paul echoes Cody's reasoning, emphasizing Holloway's incredible volume and durability. He notes that Holloway landed 445 significant strikes against Calvin Kattar, questioning if Arnold Allen can keep that pace. He acknowledges Holloway may be slowing down but still finds it hard to ignore his output.
The MMA Guru picks Max Holloway to win by decision, citing Holloway's volume striking, boxing, chin, and takedown defense. He acknowledges Arnold Allen's power and recent improvements but believes Holloway's experience in championship fights and ability to take three of five rounds will prevail. He notes the -190 line is a bit high and sees value on Allen at +155, but ultimately sides with Holloway.
Zane picks Holloway, acknowledging Allen's southpaw tactics and potential but emphasizing Holloway's proven durability and pace. He notes that Allen's best wins have asterisks (Hooker at wrong weight, Kattar injury) and that Holloway has only lost to elite competition like Volkanovski and Poirier. Zane believes Holloway's volume and pressure will be too much for Allen over five rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 199 of 372 | 53% | 204 of 377 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 127 of 301 | 42% | 161 of 335 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 28 of 70 | 40% | 28 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 24 of 56 | 42% | 26 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 37 of 78 | 47% | 38 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 27 of 65 | 41% | 37 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 40 of 74 | 54% | 40 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 26 of 63 | 41% | 30 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 4 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 44 of 70 | 62% | 48 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 31 of 63 | 49% | 42 of 74 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 5 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 50 of 80 | 62% | 50 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 19 of 54 | 35% | 26 of 61 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 199 of 372 | 53% | 152 of 316 | 19 of 24 | 28 of 32 | 175 of 340 | 24 of 32 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 127 of 301 | 42% | 64 of 213 | 42 of 59 | 21 of 29 | 109 of 283 | 18 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 28 of 70 | 40% | 18 of 55 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 8 | 26 of 68 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 24 of 56 | 42% | 11 of 31 | 6 of 14 | 7 of 11 | 22 of 54 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 37 of 78 | 47% | 29 of 69 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 35 of 75 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 27 of 65 | 41% | 15 of 48 | 7 of 10 | 5 of 7 | 27 of 65 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 40 of 74 | 54% | 31 of 63 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 34 of 65 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 26 of 63 | 41% | 16 of 51 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 22 of 59 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Alexander Volkanovski | 44 of 70 | 62% | 37 of 63 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 35 of 58 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 31 of 63 | 49% | 13 of 41 | 16 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 56 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Alexander Volkanovski | 50 of 80 | 62% | 37 of 66 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 10 | 45 of 74 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 19 of 54 | 35% | 9 of 42 | 5 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 14 of 49 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Volkanovski, citing his previous two wins over Holloway and his ability to mix in takedowns. He notes that Holloway took significant damage in his last fight against Yair Rodriguez and may be declining. He expects a similar outcome with Volkanovski winning a decision.
Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski but is hesitant, acknowledging Holloway's volume and the close second fight. He likes Volkanovski's movement, kicks, and ability to mix in takedowns. He expects a close decision win for Volkanovski.
Cody thinks Volkanovski has Max's number, citing his ability to mix in takedowns and land more impactful strikes. He notes Max's volume is high but he leaves himself open to counters. He expects Volkanovski to win a decision, possibly by mixing in wrestling.
Daniel Levi leans toward Alexander Volkanovski, citing his superior fainting game, leg kicks, and ability to make in-fight adjustments. He notes that Volkanovski's heart and doggedness were key in the second fight, where he came back from down two rounds. Levi acknowledges that Holloway has value at +170 given the close nature of their previous fights (five of six judges scored them 3-2), but he believes Volkanovski is operating on a different level and could potentially dominate. He is not confident enough to bet at -200.
Volkanovski is a master at implementing game plans and adjusts well as fights go on. He won the later rounds in both previous fights. Holloway's narrative of getting stronger late doesn't hold against Volkanovski. The host prefers Volkanovski by decision at +105 rather than the moneyline.
Paul agrees Volkanovski is the rightful favorite, citing his ability to mix in takedowns and steal rounds. He prefers to bet live to get a better price, but picks Volkanovski to win.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by decision, citing his improved leg kick setups, grappling, and recent activity with no damage taken. He argues Holloway has taken significant damage in recent fights and that Volkanovski's shorter stature with longer reach is a stylistic nightmare. He predicts a 49-46 scorecard and notes that betting on Holloway requires knockdowns, which is unreliable.
Charles Oliveira - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 0 | 26 of 45 | 57% | 73 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 50 of 66 | 75% | 110 of 137 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 4 | 0 | 20:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 10 of 14 | 71% | 19 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 4:30 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 16 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 13 of 15 | 86% | 24 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 4:40 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 18 of 23 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 4:29 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 11 | 81% | 25 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:16 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 28 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 12 | 75% | 24 of 27 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 26 of 45 | 57% | 18 of 36 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Oliveira | 50 of 66 | 75% | 37 of 51 | 7 of 9 | 6 of 6 | 24 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 27 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 8 of 13 | 61% | 5 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Oliveira | 10 of 14 | 71% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 5 of 7 | 71% | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Oliveira | 13 of 15 | 86% | 11 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 11 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Oliveira | 9 of 14 | 64% | 7 of 10 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 6 of 11 | 54% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Oliveira | 9 of 11 | 81% | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 5 of 9 | 55% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Oliveira | 9 of 12 | 75% | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo acknowledges that Charles has a clear grappling advantage and expects him to mix in takedowns to keep Max guessing, opening up his striking. He notes Max's all-time great volume and takedown defense, but believes the threat of takedowns will disrupt Max's rhythm. He calls it a slight lean, emphasizing that picks can change closer to the event.
Big Brady picks Max Holloway over Charles Oliveira for the BMF belt. He acknowledges Holloway's durability may be declining after the Topuria KO and being hurt by Poirier, but still trusts it more than Oliveira's, who has been finished nine times and gets hurt in every fight. Holloway has good takedown defense and cardio. Brady expects Holloway to stuff takedowns, put a pace on Oliveira, hurt him, and finish by third-round KO. He also mentions an Underdog prop: Holloway under 94.5 significant strikes.
Cody agrees with Paul, picking Holloway due to consistency, better boxing, and takedown defense. He mentions Holloway's durability and power at 155, and notes that Oliveira is dangerous but Holloway is the better all-around fighter. He predicts a first or second round knockout or a decision win.
Connor picks Max Holloway, citing Holloway's back-foot counterpunching and ability to control space, which neutralizes Oliveira's pressure. He notes Holloway's body punching from their first fight and his improved defensive wrestling, comparing the matchup to Islam Makhachev's win over Oliveira. Connor acknowledges Oliveira's toughness but believes Holloway's style is a nightmare for him.
Daniel Vreeland favors Max Holloway due to his elite cardio, volume striking, and historical preference in this matchup. He notes that Holloway sets significant strike records and has a proven track record, though he acknowledges Oliveira's dangerous submission threat and opportunistic finishing ability. Vreeland mentions that both fighters have been dropped recently, but he trusts Holloway's output down the stretch.
Holloway is the biggest bet of the year at 5 units. The host believes Holloway's superior striking volume (lands more than double the strikes per minute) and 83% takedown defense will neutralize Oliveira's grappling. He expects Oliveira to be competitive early but fade, with Holloway pulling away in later rounds. The host is surprised Holloway is not a bigger favorite, having placed the bet at 1.50 odds a week ago.
Lucrative James picks Max Holloway because he believes Holloway is the far superior striker with better distance control and volume. He notes that Oliveira's path to victory relies on hurting Holloway and jumping on a submission, but considers that a low-probability outcome. James also highlights Holloway's increased power at lightweight and his stylistic adaptation to fighting on the outside, while Oliveira's durability issues and tendency to get hurt make him vulnerable. He sees Holloway winning by TKO or decision, with the fight likely ending inside the distance.
Holloway should stop Oliveira's grappling and outwork him on the feet with volume. Oliveira needs a kick-heavy game to slow Holloway, but Holloway's jab and pressure will win rounds. The fight likely goes to decision, but the line is too high; Holloway should be closer to -150.
Paul picks Max Holloway, citing his superior boxing, technical abilities, and takedown defense. He notes that Holloway's volume and power at 155 lbs are key, and that Oliveira is hittable. He acknowledges Oliveira's danger but believes Holloway wins more often than not, possibly by knockout or accumulation of strikes.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira, believing he will take Holloway's shots and eventually submit him. He argues Oliveira has better wins (e.g., Poirier in his prime, Gaethje) and improved wrestling. He predicts a rear-naked choke in round two, citing Oliveira's power and grappling advantage.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Max Holloway. He emphasizes Holloway's body punching and back-foot countering as key, and notes that Oliveira struggles against fighters who can pressure him off the back foot, as seen in the Makhachev fight. Zane also mentions Holloway's excellent takedown defense, though he is curious to see it tested against Oliveira.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 11 of 33 | 33% | 18 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 3:35 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 18 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:47 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 | |
| 2 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 8 of 25 | 32% | 9 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 14 of 35 | 40% | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 11 of 33 | 33% | 4 of 21 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 10 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 18 of 42 | 42% | 16 of 40 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 4 of 7 | 57% | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Charles Oliveira | 8 of 25 | 32% | 4 of 17 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 14 of 35 | 40% | 13 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Mateusz Gamrot, believing his wrestling and experience at American Top Team will prevent him from getting submitted. He expects Gamrot to win by takedowns and control, similar to Arman Tsarukyan's win over Oliveira. He notes Oliveira's only hope is a knockout on the feet or a submission, but thinks Gamrot is too well-trained. He bet on Gamrot at -120 odds.
Big Brady picks Charles Oliveira to finish Mateusz Gamrot by third-round knockout, becoming the first to finish Gamrot. He notes both fighters have durability concerns: Gamrot gets hurt in every fight but never finished, while Oliveira is coming off a brutal KO loss to Ilia Topuria and may be returning too soon. However, Brady thinks Oliveira is pissed off and will pressure hard, land big shots, and eventually drop Gamrot. He believes Gamrot's takedowns won't lead to control, as Oliveira can get back up, and on the feet Oliveira has the death touch. He also notes Gamrot took the fight on short notice and is fighting in Brazil.
Cody picks Charles Oliveira but is scared due to concerns about Oliveira being a part-time fighter and possibly past his peak. He notes Gamrot's wrestling could be a threat but trusts Oliveira's jiu-jitsu and home crowd advantage. He suggests live betting Oliveira if he loses early rounds.
James picks Oliveira despite acknowledging Gamrot's wrestling advantage and Oliveira's recent KO loss. He believes Oliveira's superior jiu-jitsu and striking will be key, especially his guillotine and front headlock series to defend takedowns. However, he notes volatility due to short notice and Oliveira's age, and does not plan to bet on this fight.
Lucrative James leans Charles Oliveira, citing his superior striking and submission danger. He believes Gamrot must rely on takedowns, but Oliveira's scrambling and jiu-jitsu are elite. He notes Oliveira's ability to get up from takedowns and his power. However, he acknowledges Gamrot's prime and intangibles, making it a close fight. He picks Oliveira but is not confident.
Manpreet picks Gamrot by decision, citing Gamrot's high-level grappling and ability to nullify Oliveira's submission threats. He notes Oliveira's tendency to be too comfortable off his back, which could be exploited by Gamrot's wrestling and scrambles. However, he acknowledges the short notice for Gamrot and calls the fight a toss-up, with low confidence. He mentions that Oliveira's striking advantage and BJJ threat could cause Gamrot problems, but believes Gamrot's grappling defense will keep him safe.
Paul picks Charles Oliveira, citing his excellent striking and grappling, and noting that Gamrot has been knocked down multiple times in the UFC. He believes Oliveira's dual threat of knockout and submission will be too much, especially in a five-round fight where Gamrot's cardio may fade. Paul is confident but acknowledges the risk of Oliveira's age and recent knockout loss.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira over Mateusz Gamrot, citing Oliveira's submission skills and Gamrot's tendency to get hurt and shoot for takedowns, leaving his neck exposed. He notes Gamrot has been rocked in many fights and Oliveira will capitalize with a guillotine. He predicts a submission win in round 1 or 2.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 1 | 21 of 29 | 72% | 24 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 1 | 21 of 29 | 72% | 24 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 21 of 29 | 72% | 17 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 18 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Charles Oliveira | 9 of 16 | 56% | 3 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 21 of 29 | 72% | 17 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 18 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Charles Oliveira | 9 of 16 | 56% | 3 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Topuria (-440), Oliveira (+340)
Round 1
One way or another, lightweight history will be made tonight. Either Topuria (16-0, 8-0 UFC) will become the first undefeated two-division champ in UFC history, or Oliveira (35-10, 1 NC; 23-10, 1 NC UFC) will serve as the first two-time 155-pound king. The finish rates of the two are high, excitement is higher and the
fighter
that was
electrocuted in Thailand
on Sunday at a Weed Boxing show may be the highest. Locked and loaded, referee Marc Goddard has got this. Before the mayhem begins, the 155ers vying for the vacant throne share a respectful fist bump. It’s on with the show.
Oliveira is quick to deliver a hard leg kick, and they get right to swinging. Both men tag one another immediately, with the former lightweight champ hitting harder but suffering a cut on the eye. Oliveira rushes forward to grab hold of Topuria, searching for a body lock takedown. Oliveira tries to throw Topuria to the mat, but he ends up falling to his back. Blood flows from the eyebrow of “Do Bronxs,” who latches onto a leglock that drags Topuria to the floor. Topuria scrambles wildly to get his leg out, turning towards the Brazilian and exploding his way up. He slaps Oliveira with a few low kicks to either side, until Goddard tells Oliveira to stand. Topuria lets loose with swinging fists, and Oliveira clinches and throws him to the wall. Oliveira dips and delivers an uppercut on the chin, and Topuria goes to the body. Topuria’s power is maximum, as he unleashes a thunderous right hook and a lightning bolt left that sends Oliveira collapsing to the floor, completely unconscious. Before Goddard can get between them, Topuria hammers the nail with a couple brutal, unnecessary hammerfists. The snoozing Oliveira’s eyes stare into the void, and the void stares back into him until he regains consciousness.
While Oliveira has been stopped with strikes before, including taking a one-hitter quitter from Cub Swanson in 2012, no one has done that to the Brazilian at 155 pounds. The vacancy of the lightweight belt is now filled, and it is in the arms of “El Matador.” Topuria called his shot perfectly, claiming before the match that he would knock out Oliveira in the first round. He did just that, and the next question is who will be next for him. Three awaiting contenders are shown in the crowd: Justin Gaethje, Paddy Pimblett and Arman Tsarukyan. Topuria calls out Pimblett specifically, and declares, “If you think you are ready, come on you blonde b--ch.” Pimblett jumps out of the crowd to hurry into the cage, and politely gives Topuria credit for the hellacious knockout while patting him on the shoulder. “Paddy the Baddy” then announces that he will finish Topuria, and that “El Matador” could not knock him out. Topuria shoves Pimblett as dollar signs flash in the eyes of UFC executives, with the company apparently matching the fight right now. If that fight does materialize, it will be a big one, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Charles Oliveira R1 2:27 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Ilia Topuria because he believes Topuria's boxing, footwork, and wrestling are superior to Charles Oliveira's. He notes that Oliveira has been rocked in almost every fight, while Topuria has only been dropped once and recovered to win. He acknowledges that Oliveira is a great grappler but thinks Topuria's wrestling is better and his hands are cleaner. He is slightly concerned about Topuria's size at lightweight but thinks he will get the job done.
Big Brady believes this is a bad matchup for Oliveira, citing Topuria's excellent takedown defense and power. He notes Oliveira has been dropped in recent fights and Topuria hits harder than anyone Oliveira has faced. Brady thinks the fight will stay standing, where Topuria will land big shots and potentially finish early. He also mentions that referee Mark Goddard is quick to stop fights, which favors Topuria. He predicts a first-round knockout.
Connor sees this as a bad stylistic matchup for Oliveira. He notes that Oliveira's losses come against fighters who aren't afraid to grapple with him and who pressure him, both of which describe Topuria. He also highlights Topuria's body punching and pressure fighting as key advantages, and believes Topuria's wrestling defense is sufficient to neutralize Oliveira's grappling. He expects Topuria to finish Oliveira relatively quickly, either by knockout or by dominating on the ground.
The host believes Topuria can walk Oliveira down and land big power shots, setting up a knockout. He also notes Topuria might look to take the fight to the ground to submit the UFC submission leader, but ultimately expects a knockout victory.
The host picks Ilia Topuria by TKO, citing his crisp boxing, power, and ability to hurt Oliveira. He notes that Oliveira gets hurt by everyone and that Topuria's compact style will be difficult for Oliveira to grapple with. He predicts multiple knockdowns leading to a finish late in the first round.
Zane agrees that Topuria is a bad matchup for Oliveira. He points out that Oliveira's game relies on fear and aggression, and if an opponent doesn't respect his grappling, Oliveira can be beaten. He notes that Topuria is a pressure fighter who is comfortable in the pocket and has good takedown defense. Zane also mentions that Oliveira looked slower and more cautious in his last fight against Chandler, which is a worrying sign. He expects Topuria to win, possibly by knockout or by outgrappling Oliveira.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 88 of 122 | 72% | 117 of 153 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 2 | 0 | 14:52 |
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 84 of 113 | 74% | 150 of 181 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 11 of 16 | 68% | 18 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:31 |
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 8 of 9 | 88% | 35 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 24 of 35 | 68% | 27 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:48 |
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 15 of 22 | 68% | 38 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 27 of 36 | 75% | 41 of 51 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 3:11 |
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 14 of 18 | 77% | 15 of 19 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 3:55 |
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 10 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 12 of 17 | 70% | 16 of 21 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:27 |
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 40 of 47 | 85% | 52 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:59 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 88 of 122 | 72% | 56 of 82 | 18 of 25 | 14 of 15 | 67 of 98 | 3 of 5 | 18 of 19 |
| Michael Chandler | 84 of 113 | 74% | 59 of 85 | 16 of 18 | 9 of 10 | 60 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 24 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 11 of 16 | 68% | 4 of 7 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Chandler | 8 of 9 | 88% | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Charles Oliveira | 24 of 35 | 68% | 19 of 27 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 13 |
| Michael Chandler | 15 of 22 | 68% | 11 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Charles Oliveira | 27 of 36 | 75% | 21 of 29 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 28 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 |
| Michael Chandler | 13 of 19 | 68% | 8 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Charles Oliveira | 14 of 18 | 77% | 7 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Michael Chandler | 8 of 16 | 50% | 6 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Charles Oliveira | 12 of 17 | 70% | 5 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Chandler | 40 of 47 | 85% | 30 of 36 | 9 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 24 |
Angelo picks Charles Oliveira but is hesitant. He acknowledges Chandler's incredible shape and the possibility of a smart game plan, but trusts Oliveira's well-rounded game and the fact that he already beat Chandler. He warns against putting Oliveira in parlays due to the uncertainty.
Big Brady picks Charles Oliveira by second-round submission. He expects Chandler to hurt Oliveira early, as he often gets dropped, but believes Oliveira's heart and durability will carry him through. He notes that Chandler fades in later rounds and has poor submission defense, as seen against Dustin Poirier. He predicts Oliveira will survive the first round and submit Chandler in the second.
Cody picks Charles Oliveira, expecting him to weather Chandler's early storm and finish him in the second round. He notes Chandler's athletic but low-volume style leads to gassing, and Oliveira is a zombie who fights better after getting dropped. Cody predicts Oliveira by submission or knockout inside the distance, likely by submission.
Connor also picks Oliveira but with hesitation, noting that Chandler has the power to knock him out and that Oliveira's chin may be fading. He points out that Oliveira's comeback ability is key, but Chandler's aggression could overwhelm him. Connor thinks Oliveira's submission threat and durability give him the edge, but it's a toss-up.
Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Oliveira, arguing that Chandler redlines early and if he doesn't finish Oliveira, Oliveira will come back and finish him. He highlights Oliveira's calf kicks, submission threats off his back, and ability to extend his records. He notes Chandler's tendency to fade and make mistakes, as seen in the Poirier fight.
Vreeland picks Oliveira because Chandler has a long layoff and was preparing for Conor McGregor, a completely different fighter. He notes that even in their first fight, Chandler's early success faded as he walked into punches and submissions. Vreeland believes Chandler will be rusty and Oliveira's durability and ground game will be too much.
Fox picks Oliveira, noting that Chandler's UFC record is poor (2-3) and he has been inactive. He believes Oliveira is better in all aspects at this point and that Chandler's obsession with McGregor hurt his preparation. Fox is confident Oliveira wins.
Lucrative James picks Charles Oliveira to win but is hesitant, noting the line (-275) may be too wide. He acknowledges Chandler's power and explosivity, and that Chandler almost finished Oliveira in their first fight. However, he believes Oliveira has more tools—better striking at all ranges, brutal clinch work, and superior submission grappling—and a better gas tank for five rounds. He also mentions Chandler's fragile chin and tendency to get hurt, but admits Chandler has a good shot and the odds (+225) are disrespectful.
The host recalls Chandler's success in the first round of their first fight, getting two 10-8s, but ultimately getting knocked out early in the second. He believes Oliveira still holds all the advantages but can be touched up. He loves the under 1.5 rounds and leans Oliveira, but notes Chandler as an underdog above +200 is worth considering.
Paul picks Charles Oliveira, noting Chandler's two-year layoff and 1-3 record in his last four. He expects Chandler to have a good first round but fade, and Oliveira to find a finish. Paul mentions the gloves change might affect submissions but still likes Oliveira inside the distance, possibly by submission or knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira, predicting a rear-naked choke in the first or second round. He believes Chandler makes too many mistakes and that Oliveira will catch a kick and take him down. He notes Chandler's inactivity and age as factors.
Zane picks Oliveira but is hesitant, acknowledging that Chandler could easily knock him out. He notes that Oliveira's style is high-risk and he often gets hurt before recovering, and that Chandler's power and aggression make this a dangerous fight. Zane believes Oliveira's durability and ability to find submissions will prevail, but it's not a confident pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arman Tsarukyan | 0 | 19 of 37 | 51% | 33 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 4 | 1 | 2:32 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 49 of 83 | 59% | 75 of 117 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 8:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arman Tsarukyan | 0 | 9 of 11 | 81% | 12 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:44 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 19 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:42 | |
| 2 | Arman Tsarukyan | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 14 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 22 of 36 | 61% | 38 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:49 | |
| 3 | Arman Tsarukyan | 0 | 5 of 17 | 29% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 1 | 0:48 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 18 of 31 | 58% | 18 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arman Tsarukyan | 19 of 37 | 51% | 11 of 22 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 6 | 7 of 24 | 6 of 6 | 6 of 7 |
| Charles Oliveira | 49 of 83 | 59% | 37 of 69 | 10 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 23 of 50 | 3 of 4 | 23 of 29 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arman Tsarukyan | 9 of 11 | 81% | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 |
| Charles Oliveira | 9 of 16 | 56% | 6 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 | |
| 2 | Arman Tsarukyan | 5 of 9 | 55% | 4 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Charles Oliveira | 22 of 36 | 61% | 19 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 16 | |
| 3 | Arman Tsarukyan | 5 of 17 | 29% | 2 of 10 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Oliveira | 18 of 31 | 58% | 12 of 25 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 6 |
Angelo picks Arman Tsarukyan, comparing him to Islam Makhachev with slightly better striking and slightly worse wrestling. He believes Tsarukyan's wrestling will be too much for Oliveira, similar to how Islam submitted him. He notes the public heavily favors Oliveira but the oddsmakers have Tsarukyan as favorite for a reason.
Cody believes Charles Oliveira's defensive flaws will be exposed. He notes Oliveira takes a lot of damage and relies on comebacks, which is unsustainable. Tsarukyan is a strong wrestler with good takedown defense (only taken down by Islam Makhachev and a former KSW champion). Cody thinks Oliveira won't be able to take Tsarukyan down, forcing a striking battle where Tsarukyan's power and youth will prevail. He mentions Tsarukyan's impressive physique and recent knockout of Beneil Dariush. Cody sees Tsarukyan as the fresher, ascending fighter who will eventually land a big right hand and finish Oliveira.
Daniel Vreeland picks Arman Tsarukyan, agreeing with guest Giani that Tsarukyan's wrestling and pressure will be key. He notes that Tsarukyan is younger, has a comparable style to Islam Makhachev, and will not hesitate to follow Oliveira to the ground. Vreeland believes Oliveira's submission threat is real but Tsarukyan's top control and ground-and-pound will win rounds.
Daniel Vreeland picks Arman Tsarukyan, noting that the line is a bit wide but he likes Tsarukyan's youth and finishing ability. He mentions that Tsarukyan's grappling and wrestling are top-notch, and that Oliveira will struggle to get takedowns. He also notes that Tsarukyan has power on the feet and less mileage than Oliveira.
Jeff Fox picks Arman Tsarukyan, citing that the only fighters who have given Oliveira trouble are exceptional wrestlers. He notes that Oliveira's takedown game won't be enough against Tsarukyan's wrestling, and that Tsarukyan's kickboxing will take over. He also mentions that Tsarukyan's scrambles with Islam Makhachev on short notice show his level.
Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He mentions that bookmakers expect Arman Tsarukyan to win as a decent favorite, and that if he wins, a rematch with Islam Makhachev is likely. He calls it a banger but does not state his own prediction.
Tsarukyan will nullify Oliveira's grappling and his submission defense will keep Oliveira in bad positions. Tsarukyan's big power on the feet will find Oliveira's chin and knock him out within two rounds.
Paul sees Tsarukyan as the fresher fighter with fewer miles. He notes that Tsarukyan's short-notice fight against Islam Makhachev was competitive and looks good in hindsight. Paul points out that Tsarukyan has a good chin and has only been knocked out once, early in his career. He expects Charles to come out hot and have early success, but Tsarukyan will weather the storm and take over. Paul also mentions that if Tsarukyan scores takedowns, he must be careful of Oliveira's guard, but he believes Tsarukyan's youth and power will be the difference.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira to submit Arman Tsarukyan via guillotine in round one. He believes Oliveira will wobble Tsarukyan with a left hook, prompting a panicked takedown attempt that Oliveira will capitalize on. He dismisses Tsarukyan's grappling credentials, noting he was wobbled by Walkin Silva.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 1 | 26 of 36 | 72% | 37 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Beneil Dariush | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 32 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 1 | 26 of 36 | 72% | 37 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Beneil Dariush | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 32 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 26 of 36 | 72% | 23 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 20 |
| Beneil Dariush | 12 of 28 | 42% | 8 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 14 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 26 of 36 | 72% | 23 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 20 |
| Beneil Dariush | 12 of 28 | 42% | 8 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 14 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dariush (-140), Oliveira (+120)
Round 1
Hold onto your hats, because a fight many fans and observers circled on their calendars is about to happen. Former champ Oliveira (33-9, 1 NC; 21-9, 1 NC UFC), fresh off losing his belt to Islam Makhachev, is aiming to bounce back from that submission loss. Across from him is the surging Dariush (22-4-1, 16-4-1 UFC), who has strung eight impressive wins together to earn this potential no. 1 contender matchup. While unfortunately only scheduled for three rounds, the two top lightweights might not need that long. Referee Jason Herzog earns the honor of officiating this co-main attraction, and the combatants respectfully bump fists first. Oliveira reaches out with a front kick, and as he does, Dariush kicks his lead leg. Oliveira walks straight into the fire, throwing a head kick and shaking Dariush up, and the two trade furious strikes. The two wind up clashing together, chest to chest, and Oliveira looks to lift Dariush and dump him to the mat but ends up falling to his back. Dariush sits in the close guard and lands a few punches, and Oliveira actively pushes off the chest and uses upkicks. Oliveira attacks with hammerfists while Dariush is striking him from above, and the blows from Dariush are heavier. Oliveira pursues a leglock, and he hooks Dariush’ leg beneath his armpit. Dariush stands up, and he slips his foot out and meanders back into Oliveira’s guard. Dariush swings hard down at his opponent, and he punches the floor a few times with Oliveira swaying back and forth. Oliveira kicks off with upkicks again, and Dariush settles to return to the closed guard, smacking the Brazilian with hammerfists and punches. Dariush avoids any traps, but Oliveira bursts back to his feet and knees his man in the chest. Oliveira abandons the clinch and boots Dariush in the head. Dariush is stung from that and a subsequent left hand, and he knocks Dariush to his knees with a clubbing right hand behind the ear. Dariush drops to go after a takedown, and when that fails, he rolls with desperation with for some kind of leglock. “Do Bronx” pushes right past it and slams his fists down on Dariush again and again. Dariush tries to turn to his side, but his bell is rung and Oliveira is not about to let him off the hook. The punches continue to mount for the Brazilian, who will not stop until Herzog pulls him off. As he keeps beating down the Kings MMA fighter, Herzog has no choice but to wave the fight off. The former champ peels off to jump atop the cage and soak it in as the deafening crowd showers him with cheers and affection. Oliveira climbs back down to embrace his fallen foe, and then he leaps out of the cage to go hug someone in the crowd. This is a statement performance for Oliveira, who claims his 20th finish as a UFC fighter, which adds to his own record. Lightweights will not likely going to line up wanting to face him next, and he has just one goal in mind: he wants his belt back, calling out Islam Makhachev and offering to the UFC brass that he will fight Makhachev on his home soil.
The Official Result
Charles Oliveira def. Beneil Dariush R1 4:10 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Beneil Dariush, having placed 1.5 units on him at -125. He argues that Dariush is the better wrestler and grappler, and that his no-gi BJJ world championship credentials give him an edge. He believes Dariush can avoid Charles Oliveira's submission threats by staying controlled and not creating scrambles. He thinks Dariush's power and wrestling will be key.
Big Brady picks Beneil Dariush to finish Charles Oliveira in the first round. He notes that Dariush has the wrestling to dictate where the fight goes and has heavy hands. Oliveira is hittable and has been dropped in recent fights. Dariush's power and grappling should overwhelm Oliveira early. He predicts a knockdown followed by a submission or TKO.
Cody picks Beneil Dariush despite being a fan of Oliveira. He argues that Dariush is a thinking man's fighter with high ring IQ, underrated power, and a nasty liver kick. He notes that Oliveira's reckless approach and durability issues (gets knocked down often) play into Dariush's precision. He also believes Dariush's wrestling and BJJ are good enough to grapple with Oliveira, and he can win standing or on the ground. He expects the fight to end inside the distance.
Connor picks Dariush confidently, citing his superior grappling and pressure. He believes Dariush can out-grapple Oliveira and that Oliveira's submission threat is overrated. He notes that Dariush is willing to grapple and has the skills to neutralize Oliveira's guard. However, he acknowledges the risk of Oliveira's power and chaos.
Daniel Levi picks Beneil Dariush in a coin-toss fight, citing momentum and Dariush's time to get a title shot. He notes that Dariush has paid his dues and is on a win streak, while Oliveira has been dropped in his last three fights. He believes Dariush will not be afraid to follow Oliveira to the ground, unlike previous opponents, and that Dariush's calm, pressure-based Jiu-Jitsu can neutralize Oliveira's non-stop attacking style. However, he acknowledges Oliveira's offensive potency and the possibility of Dariush getting hurt.
James picks Beneil Dariush, believing Oliveira's time at the top is done. He thinks Dariush's distance control with his left kick and technical striking can make Oliveira look amateur on the feet, similar to how Islam Makhachev did. He also believes Dariush can get takedowns and has elite jiu-jitsu to avoid submissions. However, he notes Dariush's chin is vulnerable and he could be dragged into a brawl, where Oliveira has an edge. James sees Dariush winning by decision or submission, and considers the moneyline value good.
Dariush has a well-rounded game with improved striking and excellent defensive grappling. Oliveira is dangerous everywhere but has shown vulnerability to pressure and wrestling. Dariush's ability to stuff takedowns and land on the feet should lead to a finish, likely by KO. The under 2.5 rounds is a strong play given both fighters' finishing rates.
Paul leans toward Dariush, citing his technical striking and smart approach. He thinks Oliveira could do crazy things early, but once Dariush susses out the situation, he will take over and find his advantage. Paul is not betting this fight but is interested in a PrizePicks play on under 1.5 takedowns for Dariush, reasoning that Dariush may not want to go to the ground with Oliveira.
The MMA Guru picks Beneil Dariush over Charles Oliveira, despite wanting Oliveira to win. He notes Dariush's consistent recent performances, great takedown defense, and improving hands. He worries about Oliveira's tendency to get dropped and his injury layoff. He believes Dariush can control where the fight goes and may finish or win a decision.
Zane also picks Dariush, emphasizing that if Dariush can scramble with Oliveira on the ground, he can win. He notes that Dariush's defensive wrestling and scrambling were impressive against Gamrot and Ferreira. He acknowledges the danger of Oliveira's striking but believes Dariush's grappling advantage is key.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 25 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Charles Oliveira | 1 | 30 of 41 | 73% | 72 of 86 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 5:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 51 of 60 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:48 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 0 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Charles Oliveira | 1 | 18 of 23 | 78% | 21 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 19 of 39 | 48% | 7 of 23 | 12 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 26 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 5 |
| Charles Oliveira | 30 of 41 | 73% | 25 of 35 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 31 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam Makhachev | 6 of 11 | 54% | 1 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 |
| Charles Oliveira | 12 of 18 | 66% | 9 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 | |
| 2 | Islam Makhachev | 13 of 28 | 46% | 6 of 18 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 21 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 1 |
| Charles Oliveira | 18 of 23 | 78% | 16 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, arguing that Islam's wrestling and control will be the difference. He notes that Charles Oliveira's submission wins mostly come when he gets the takedown, not when he is taken down. He believes Islam can get takedowns, avoid submissions, and control the fight. He acknowledges Oliveira's danger but is confident in Islam.
Big Brady picks Makhachev to win by TKO in the third round. He believes Makhachev will take Oliveira down easily and eventually get to a dominant position. Oliveira is dangerous off his back but has been finished before (seven finish losses). Makhachev's wrestling and top control should wear Oliveira down, leading to a ground-and-pound stoppage.
Cody acknowledges Makhachev's relentless grinding and pressure style, but notes Oliveira's elite jiu-jitsu and striking power. He points out that Oliveira has been a live underdog before, with plus money wins in his last two fights. Cody is concerned about Makhachev's ability to hang in Oliveira's guard without getting submitted. He ultimately leans Oliveira because of the value and Oliveira's diverse finishing ability, though he admits it's a conflicted pick.
Connor argues that Makhachev must grapple with Oliveira and that he is too dominant and technical on the ground to be swept or submitted. He notes that Oliveira has been outgrappled before by fighters like Paul Felder, Anthony Pettis, and Ricardo Lamas, and that Makhachev's patience and cardio will allow him to slow-cook Oliveira over five rounds. He emphasizes that Makhachev's submission defense and ability to avoid trouble in scrambles make him a safe pick.
Daniel Levi picks Islam Makhachev to win the lightweight title. He believes Islam's Dagestani wrestling and grappling will allow him to engage with Charles Oliveira on the ground where previous opponents were hesitant. Levi notes that Oliveira has been dropped in recent fights but opponents respected his guard and backed off, whereas Islam will not be intimidated and will follow up. He also mentions that Islam's striking, especially high kicks, is underrated and that he absorbs very few strikes. Levi acknowledges Oliveira's improved confidence and submission threat but thinks Islam's grappling pedigree and ability to neutralize submissions will be the difference. He bet 2 units at -162.
Makhachev's wrestling is the key factor; Oliveira hasn't faced a wrestler of this caliber since Kevin Lee. Makhachev has five-round cardio and can neutralize Oliveira's jiu-jitsu by passing guard and getting to dominant positions. Oliveira's striking advantage won't matter if the fight goes to the ground. Makhachev inside the distance at -105 is the pick, likely finishing in the second or third round.
Paul is confident in Oliveira, citing that he grabbed Oliveira at +285 earlier and added more at +175. He questions Makhachev's striking defense, referencing the Adriano Martins knockout, and believes Oliveira's style is problematic for Makhachev. Paul thinks Oliveira can win on the feet or by submission, and doesn't understand the 66% win probability for Makhachev. He sees Oliveira as a very live dog.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira over Islam Makhachev, despite being the underdog. He notes that BJJ fighters with hands have given Makhachev problems (e.g., Thiago Moises, Davi Ramos). He believes Oliveira's pressure and striking will rock Makhachev, leading to a guillotine submission in round one. He also cites Makhachev's lack of big-fight experience and the pressure of fighting in Abu Dhabi.
Zane agrees that Makhachev should grapple and believes he will find takedowns against Oliveira, who is willing to engage on the ground. He notes that Makhachev's multi-directional takedown threats and ability to chain attacks will overwhelm Oliveira. He also points out that Oliveira's recent success is partly due to opponents being afraid to follow him to the ground, but Makhachev will not hesitate.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 1 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 33 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Justin Gaethje | 1 | 21 of 33 | 63% | 21 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 1 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 33 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Justin Gaethje | 1 | 21 of 33 | 63% | 21 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 30 of 47 | 63% | 18 of 32 | 11 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 20 of 34 | 8 of 10 | 2 of 3 |
| Justin Gaethje | 21 of 33 | 63% | 13 of 22 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 8 | 15 of 26 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 30 of 47 | 63% | 18 of 32 | 11 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 20 of 34 | 8 of 10 | 2 of 3 |
| Justin Gaethje | 21 of 33 | 63% | 13 of 22 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 8 | 15 of 26 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Oliveira (-165), Gaethje (+145)
Round 1
For the first time in UFC history, a defending champion missed weight, when
Oliveira
(32-8, 1 NC; 20-8, 1 NC UFC) could not reach the lightweight championship limit and hit the scales at 155.5 pounds. As a result, the title has been stripped from the Brazilian, and only
Gaethje
(23-3, 6-3 UFC) is eligible to win it. Should Oliveira get his hand raised, he will serve as the number one contender and will fight for the vacant belt at a later date. Many had already circled this matchup on their calendar as must-see TV given the excitement quotient that each provides, and the weigh-in drama added yet another layer of intrigue to the pairing. Getting things started will be referee Marc Goddard, who brings them to the center of the cage, issues the formalities and instructs the fighters to touch gloves. They do. With that, the fight is on, and buckle up. The first strike comes in 10 seconds with a leg kick, and they both crack one another with right hands to hurt one another. Oliveira stings him again in the clinch, and Gaethje backs off and lets fly another leg kick. Gaethje knocks the ex-champ clean off his feet, and he stands back to let Oliveira stand back up. When the Brazilian gets back up, Gaethje chops down his lead leg and nails him with a right hand that drops Oliveira again. Oliveira is swollen and bleeding from multiple places on the head, and Oliveira works his way back up to his feet. Gaethje gathers himself and absorbs a flush knee to the body, while Gaethje slings a right hand for all his worth. Gaethje gets stung and fights back, and Oliveira tries for a standing guillotine but gets pushed off. Oliveira closes the distance, jumps guard with a guillotine, and Gaethje shrugs him off and powers out of the position. They both stand back up, and Oliveira clips the challenger with a right hand. Oliveira leaps in the air with a front kick, and chants for “USA” rain down for the Arizona native. Gaethje blocks a knee, gets blasted with a right hand, and the right sends “The Highlight” crashing to the mat in big trouble. Oliveira gives chase, and he jumps on to snatch up the back and latch on to a choke. Gaethje bucks him off, fights off an armbar setup and rolls to his knees. The mighty move is for naught, as he gets yanked back down by Oliveira. This time, "Do Bronx" has Gaethje’s back on lock, and he hunts for a rear-naked choke. The arm slides beneath Gaethje’s chin, and Gaethje is in serious danger now and struggling to fight the grip. As Gaethje gasps for breath, he decides to tap out instead of going out like when he fought Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Oliveira has done it. He has survived the toughest that Gaethje could offer, suffering two knockdowns, coming back to drop Gaethje and land the submission in remarkable fashion. The UFC lightweight title is officially still vacant, with Oliveira as the current number one contender, and he will face an undetermined challenger in the future. With any luck, it will be a top active fighter like Islam Makhachev, and not a famous but undeserving person on a losing streak to slot in with hopes of selling pay-per-views. Oliveira declares that the lightweight champion does have a name, and his name is Charles Oliveira. Whoever Oliveira fights next, that man will truly have his hands full, as Oliveira is a force to be reckoned with. When he competes again for his old belt, we will be there for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Charles Oliveira def. Justin Gaethje R1 3:22 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Justin Gaethje, believing his volume and chin will overwhelm Oliveira. He argues that Oliveira's submissions are off the table because Gaethje won't go to the ground, and that Gaethje's forward pressure will wear Oliveira down. He acknowledges Oliveira's technical striking but thinks Gaethje's style is a bad matchup for him.
Big Brady picks Charles Oliveira to win by second-round submission. He believes Oliveira will weather Gaethje's early storm, pressure him against the cage, and drag the fight to the mat where Oliveira's elite BJJ will take over. He notes that Gaethje has shown vulnerability to wrestling, as seen in the Khabib fight, and that Oliveira has improved his cardio and durability, surviving early adversity against Chandler and Poirier. Brady thinks the striking is competitive but that Oliveira has more paths to victory, while Gaethje's main path is a first-round knockout.
Cody leans towards Charles Oliveira but is hesitant due to the -165 price tag. He notes that Oliveira has been hurt in recent fights (by Chandler and Poirier) but has shown heart to come back. Cody believes Gaethje's wild, reckless style creates openings for Oliveira's takedowns and submissions. He points out Gaethje's takedown defense is only 77% and that Oliveira took down Tony Ferguson and Dustin Poirier easily. However, Cody is concerned about Gaethje's cardio and durability, and plans to hedge if he gets far into the parlay.
Daniel Levi picks Charles Oliveira but is very hesitant, acknowledging that he sees a different outcome every time these two fight. He notes Oliveira's offensive brilliance and improved mental fortitude, but worries about his defensive liabilities, especially against Gaethje's leg kicks and power. He says he leans with the favorite because Oliveira has more paths to victory, but he is not betting the fight himself. He respects the value on Gaethje at plus 150 odds and understands why anyone would take the dog.
The host picks Charles Oliveira to win, likely by submission in the second round. He highlights Oliveira's finishing ability and record 15 UFC submission wins. He expects Oliveira to check leg kicks, stun Gaethje, and take the fight to the ground. He prefers betting under 2.5 rounds at -150, noting that only one of Oliveira's last 16 fights went over 2.5. He acknowledges Gaethje's power and durability but believes Oliveira's adversity-fighting has improved. He is not betting Oliveira moneyline due to the line being too wide.
Paul picks Charles Oliveira, believing he will eventually find his spot and get a submission. He notes that Oliveira doesn't necessarily need a takedown, but if he gets it to the ground, his BJJ is unmatched. Paul prefers the under 2.5 rounds at -145, expecting either Gaethje to melt Oliveira early or Oliveira to grab a submission. He acknowledges Gaethje's leg kicks and toughness but trusts Oliveira's finishing ability.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira, citing Gaethje's lack of jiu-jitsu awareness as seen against Khabib. He believes Oliveira will use a rangier game, mixing in kicks and takedowns, and eventually take Gaethje's back and choke him out in the first round. He notes Gaethje may be overthinking due to the title fight pressure and the threat of the takedown. He predicts a standing rear-naked choke.
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