UFC 190: Rousey vs. Correia · Aug 01, 2015 · Welterweight · Completed
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Age 48
Height 6' 1"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 38
Height 6' 3"
Reach 80.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Demian Maia
1.8 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
2.07 SApM
63.0% Str. Def.
2.49 TD Avg
24.0% TD Acc.
61.0% TD Def.
1.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Neil Magny
3.4 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
2.44 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
2.17 TD Avg
39.0% TD Acc.
55.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Demian Maia - Fight History
LOSS vs Belal Muhammad
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · Jun 12, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Belal Muhammad 0 21 of 53 39% 23 of 55 1 of 21 4% 0 0 4:14
Demian Maia 0 45 of 127 35% 92 of 177 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Belal Muhammad 0 2 of 5 40% 4 of 7 1 of 11 9% 0 0 2:30
Demian Maia 0 5 of 21 23% 10 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Belal Muhammad 0 7 of 19 36% 7 of 19 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:46
Demian Maia 0 19 of 47 40% 34 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Belal Muhammad 0 12 of 29 41% 12 of 29 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:58
Demian Maia 0 21 of 59 35% 48 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Belal Muhammad 21 of 53 39% 21 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0 20 of 52 1 of 1 0 of 0
Demian Maia 45 of 127 35% 38 of 119 3 of 4 4 of 4 43 of 123 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Belal Muhammad 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 5 of 21 23% 5 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Belal Muhammad 7 of 19 36% 7 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 7 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 19 of 47 40% 14 of 41 1 of 2 4 of 4 18 of 45 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Belal Muhammad 12 of 29 41% 12 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0 11 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
Demian Maia 21 of 59 35% 19 of 57 2 of 2 0 of 0 20 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Demian Maia vs. Belal Muhammad

Round 1
This next match at welterweight is a grappler’s delight, as the legendary submission specialist Maia (28-10, 22-10 UFC) will try to become the first man to tap out the durable Muhammad (18-3, 1 NC; 9-3 UFC). Enjoying this fight with the best seat in the house is referee Jason Herzog, and the two have nothing but respect for one another and touch gloves. Muhammad reaches out with several punches, and the Brazilian is right there to greet him with punches. Maia eats a few on the chin and shoots in low for a takedown, but it gets stuffed with ease. Maia comes out with a solid right hand that surprises Muhammad, and he uses this to pursue a single from afar. The grappling legend keeps the left leg elevated as he continues to pursue it, but he has to abandon it when Muhammad sprawls against the fence properly. Maia goes back after the submission, and he rips Muhammad’s knee out from beneath him to secure the takedown. Muhammad’s eyes are wide as he is surprised that this happened to him, and he walks up to his feet to stand back up. Muhammad lifts his leg all the way in the air to break the grip, and he backs away to get his feet from beneath him. Muhammad answers with a solid right hand, and he pushes away a leaping takedown attempt from Maia shortly thereafter. Muhammad has his leg grabbed again, and he hops back to the fence to keep his balance. Maia eats an elbow as he pursues the single, but Muhammad is able to put his leg down for a moment and pull it back. Maia backs away and evades the punches that come his way, but a left hand finds its home on his chin. A stiff jab from Muhammad backs Maia off, and Maia fakes a takedown to draw out a reaction. Maia puts another attempt on Muhammad with the single, and he lifts the leg up high to take Muhammad down but cannot get it. Muhammad hops to and fro with his back on the wire, and Maia sticks to him like glue as he is intent on putting Muhammad on his back. Muhammad is able to put his leg down to the ground again, and he uses the other to sling a head kick that gets blocked right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Maia
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Maia
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Maia

Round 2
There is a quick glove touch to start off the round, and Maia follows it with a left hand. Muhammad kicks the lead leg and hops back before Maia can snatch it up. The American gets off a few jabs here and there as he tries to find his range and keep a safe distance, timing uppercut feints and marking up Maia’s nose with strikes. Maia lunges forward with a looping left hand that hits nothing but air, and there is a lengthy stalemate as they look for angles. Maia drops down for a low single, and Muhammad sticks him with punches from far out. Maia turns a punch to a takedown attempt in the center of the cage, and Muhammad sprawls and stops it from happening. Muhammad makes him pay with a right hand after breaking up the attempt, and he swats away a few half-hearted punches from the Brazilian. Maia pursues another takedown, and Muhammad jumps far away to get out of harm’s way. Muhammad stings Maia with crisp punch combinations, and he hurts Maia with a right hand as he is feeling more comfortable to let his hands go. Muhammad paws out several left hands to break up Maia’s forward movement, and he kicks the lead leg hard. Maia tries to take him down, but his attempts are more labored and Muhammad sees it coming from a mile away. “Remember the Name” makes Maia remember his fists as he introduces them to Maia’s chin a few times, until Maia charges in for a desperate single leg takedown. When the Brazilian lifts the leg up, Muhammad keeps his balance and stays upright. When Maia tries for one last takedown, Muhammad defends with elbows on the side of the head until time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 3
There is one final touch of gloves for the last round, and Muhammad is more comfortable in the center of the cage as he jabs his way out. Maia gets one back, but Muhammad triples up on jabs. Maia dives for a takedown, and Muhammad springs out of danger without much concern. Muhammad gets off a head kick that still does damage even though it is fully blocked, and a right hand hurts the 43-year-old. Maia wings a left hand, but Muhammad’s strikes are more accurate and quicker. There is another head kick from Muhammad, and when it gets blocked, the Roufusport product sticks Maia with a jab. Maia shoots low for a single, and Muhammad does not seem concerned as he stops it once more. Muhammad jabs and continues to redden Maia’s face up, and a clubbing left hand frustrates Maia. Muhammad staves off a feeble single so that he can chain punches together, and he tees off on the fading Brazilian with combinations. Maia can do little but flirt with takedowns, and Muhammad drills him with a shovel uppercut but gets caught with an overhand left. Muhammad pulls his leg back before it gets snagged, and Maia telegraphs these shots every time and does not vary his approach. Muhammad aims a head kick at him, but it too is blocked. Maia crashes forward with a single, and “Remember the Name” posts a stellar takedown defense rate when he stops that one from succeeding. Muhammad protects his leg when Maia latches on to it, punching the Brazilian in the side of the head as Maia lumbers towards him. Muhammad is forced to defend single after single, and Maia lifts the leg but cannot ground him. The gritty fight comes to an end in this position.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (29-28 Muhammad)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (29-28 Muhammad)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (29-28 Muhammad)

The Official Result
Belal Muhammad def. Demian Maia via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 8, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Big Brady picks Belal Muhammad, citing his youth, cardio, and volume advantage. He is concerned about Muhammad's untested takedown defense against a grappler like Maia, but believes Maia's age (43) will be a factor. He expects Muhammad to win a decision, possibly 29-28 or 30-27.

Muhammad by decision
"i'm gonna take muhammad um i just don't feel all that great about it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Demian Maia

Cody sees this as a dog or pass situation. He notes Maia's age and slow striking but believes if Maia gets takedowns, he can submit Muhammad. He is interested in a small sprinkle on Maia by submission at +400, as Maia has a history of taking down better wrestlers.

Maia by submission (+400)
"i'm interested in maya by sub"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Daniel Levi picks Belal Muhammad, stating that no 43-year-old is beating him. He emphasizes Muhammad's pace and cardio, and that Maia's blueprint has been exposed. He expects Muhammad to outwork Maia, especially in later rounds, and predicts a dominant decision. He calls Muhammad the most sure thing among the favorites.

by decision (30-26 or 29-27)
"no 43 year old is beating balaam muhammad in a fight period"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2021 (fight day)
Demian Maia

Maia's jiu-jitsu is a level above anyone Muhammad has faced. Muhammad is a jack-of-all-trades but lacks a finishing threat, while Maia can latch on and submit him. Muhammad's takedown defense hasn't been tested by a grappler of Maia's caliber. Maia's age and cardio are concerns, but he should find a submission in the early rounds.

Maia by submission (+400), Maia by second-round submission
"I'm going to go with Demian Maia and I'm going to take him to win this fight via submission... sprinkle that sub prop because I do think it could be lively here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul agrees it's a dog or pass situation. He notes Maia's age and the fact that Muhammad has never faced a wrestler, but he doesn't have a strong lean either way. He is not interested in laying the wood on Muhammad at -230.

"i think it's a dog or pass situation regardless"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

The MMA Guru picks Belal Muhammad, believing Maia is past his prime with lowered testosterone. He notes Muhammad's cardio, takedown defense, and recent experience against Leon Edwards. He expects Muhammad to lose the first round to Maia's grappling but come back in rounds 2 and 3 with volume, winning a 29-28 decision.

"i'm going with balaam muhammad okay i really believe he wins this one"
LOSS vs Gilbert Burns
TKO (punches) R1 2:34 · UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · Mar 14, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gilbert Burns 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:24
Demian Maia 1 13 of 16 81% 14 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gilbert Burns 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:24
Demian Maia 1 13 of 16 81% 14 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gilbert Burns 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 13 of 16 81% 10 of 13 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gilbert Burns 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 13 of 16 81% 10 of 13 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 9
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Demian Maia vs. Gilbert Burns

Round 1
In the only bout of the evening between two fighters representing Brazil, two of the most highly decorated submission artists in the welterweight division face off when Maia (28-9, 22-9 UFC) tests his skills against Burns (17-3, 10-3 UFC). Together, the two have submitted a healthy 22 opponents across their 45 victories, and referee Osiris Maia will be the third Brazilian in the cage. They race to the center of the Octagon, and Maia sticks out a jab but it is Burns that throws something of note first, in the form of a right hand that misses. Burns lands a leg kick, while Maia scores a left hook. Burns scores two more kicks, and Maia comes back with that same left. Maia is pushing the pace in Burns, with a left hand that does little more than set up a single leg takedown. Burns nearly welcomes the takedown, fishing for a heel hook before abandoning it to stand up. The former title challenger keeps on him, nearly taking Burns’ back while pushing him against the fence and threatening with another takedown. As Burns tries to roll, Maia fishes for a rear-naked choke, and gets a hook in as Burns fights off the arm that wraps around his throat.
Burns slips out the back door and stands back up before anything comes from it, and blasts Maia with a monster left hook. Maia crumples to the canvas, and Burns celebrates by throwing his arms in the air.
He looks to the referee to call the fight, but none come, so Burns chases after him and swarms him with punches until the ref stops the action. This is an enormous win for Burns, who smashes a top-five opponent with style points, and immediately stakes his claim as an elite fighter in the division.

The Official Result
Gilbert Burns def. Demian Maia R1 2:34 via TKO (Punches)
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Daniel picks Burns, citing his power and youth. He thinks Maia's stand-up is a liability and that Burns can hurt him. He notes Burns has the jiu-jitsu to avoid submissions and predicts a decision win for Burns.

"i'ma go with Gilbert burns imma go with the younger guy and I think that uh he hurts my somewhere along the way and one's a decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

The host picks Gilbert Burns over Demian Maia. He notes that Maia has not been submitting opponents recently, as seen in his fight with Anthony Rocco Martin. Burns is a three-time BJJ world champion and will be able to stay out of submissions. He expects Burns to win by third-round TKO, as Maia fades in later rounds due to age and weight cut. He calls Burns an underdog but believes he has this fight in the bag.

third round TKO, underdog
"Gilbert burns by TKO I'm calling it as an underdog I think he's got this one in the bag"
WIN vs Ben Askren
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 3:54 · UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · Oct 26, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Demian Maia 0 69 of 122 56% 84 of 137 0 of 0 --- 1 2 1:29
Ben Askren 0 63 of 127 49% 102 of 168 4 of 7 57% 0 1 1:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Demian Maia 0 28 of 54 51% 31 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ben Askren 0 27 of 45 60% 44 of 62 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:46
2 Demian Maia 0 23 of 44 52% 31 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:38
Ben Askren 0 22 of 53 41% 31 of 62 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:35
3 Demian Maia 0 18 of 24 75% 22 of 28 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:51
Ben Askren 0 14 of 29 48% 27 of 44 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Demian Maia 69 of 122 56% 44 of 88 25 of 34 0 of 0 49 of 99 17 of 20 3 of 3
Ben Askren 63 of 127 49% 54 of 116 4 of 6 5 of 5 46 of 108 11 of 13 6 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Demian Maia 28 of 54 51% 16 of 36 12 of 18 0 of 0 18 of 41 10 of 13 0 of 0
Ben Askren 27 of 45 60% 21 of 39 2 of 2 4 of 4 17 of 35 8 of 8 2 of 2
2 Demian Maia 23 of 44 52% 15 of 33 8 of 11 0 of 0 19 of 40 3 of 3 1 of 1
Ben Askren 22 of 53 41% 21 of 50 0 of 2 1 of 1 18 of 47 2 of 4 2 of 2
3 Demian Maia 18 of 24 75% 13 of 19 5 of 5 0 of 0 12 of 18 4 of 4 2 of 2
Ben Askren 14 of 29 48% 12 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 26 1 of 1 2 of 2
Decision (majority) (29–28, 29–28, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. dos Santos · Jun 29, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Demian Maia 0 3 of 12 25% 74 of 86 3 of 9 33% 0 1 6:02
Anthony Rocco Martin 0 22 of 95 23% 36 of 109 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Demian Maia 0 2 of 5 40% 31 of 34 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:42
Anthony Rocco Martin 0 3 of 15 20% 9 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
2 Demian Maia 0 0 of 3 0% 42 of 48 2 of 5 40% 0 1 3:20
Anthony Rocco Martin 0 3 of 16 18% 7 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
3 Demian Maia 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Anthony Rocco Martin 0 16 of 64 25% 20 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Demian Maia 3 of 12 25% 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
Anthony Rocco Martin 22 of 95 23% 13 of 81 7 of 12 2 of 2 16 of 86 1 of 1 5 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Demian Maia 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1
Anthony Rocco Martin 3 of 15 20% 2 of 12 0 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Demian Maia 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Rocco Martin 3 of 16 18% 3 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Demian Maia 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Rocco Martin 16 of 64 25% 8 of 53 7 of 10 1 of 1 11 of 56 0 of 0 5 of 8
WIN vs Lyman Good
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:38 · UFC Fight Night: Assunção vs. Moraes 2 · Feb 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Demian Maia 0 0 of 1 0% 8 of 9 2 of 4 50% 2 0 2:12
Lyman Good 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Demian Maia 0 0 of 1 0% 8 of 9 2 of 4 50% 2 0 2:12
Lyman Good 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Demian Maia 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lyman Good 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Demian Maia 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lyman Good 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Kamaru Usman
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman · May 19, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kamaru Usman 0 27 of 87 31% 33 of 94 0 of 15 0% 0 0 2:01
Demian Maia 1 66 of 209 31% 97 of 244 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kamaru Usman 0 5 of 12 41% 10 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:01
Demian Maia 0 12 of 29 41% 13 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kamaru Usman 0 7 of 18 38% 8 of 20 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Demian Maia 0 12 of 47 25% 16 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:37
3 Kamaru Usman 0 4 of 25 16% 4 of 25 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Demian Maia 0 13 of 53 24% 16 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
4 Kamaru Usman 0 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Demian Maia 1 16 of 42 38% 32 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:31
5 Kamaru Usman 0 7 of 23 30% 7 of 23 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Demian Maia 0 13 of 38 34% 20 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kamaru Usman 27 of 87 31% 26 of 85 1 of 2 0 of 0 25 of 85 1 of 1 1 of 1
Demian Maia 66 of 209 31% 49 of 181 4 of 12 13 of 16 55 of 187 1 of 5 10 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kamaru Usman 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 12 of 29 41% 6 of 22 0 of 1 6 of 6 12 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Kamaru Usman 7 of 18 38% 7 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
Demian Maia 12 of 47 25% 9 of 43 1 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 43 1 of 3 1 of 1
3 Kamaru Usman 4 of 25 16% 4 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 13 of 53 24% 9 of 44 2 of 5 2 of 4 13 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 2
4 Kamaru Usman 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 16 of 42 38% 14 of 38 0 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 33 0 of 0 6 of 9
5 Kamaru Usman 7 of 23 30% 6 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 22 0 of 0 1 of 1
Demian Maia 13 of 38 34% 11 of 34 1 of 2 1 of 2 10 of 31 0 of 2 3 of 5
LOSS vs Colby Covington
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · Oct 28, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Colby Covington 0 53 of 151 35% 59 of 157 0 of 13 0% 0 0 0:02
Demian Maia 0 88 of 317 27% 121 of 351 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Colby Covington 0 29 of 66 43% 31 of 68 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Demian Maia 0 37 of 125 29% 44 of 132 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
2 Colby Covington 0 11 of 38 28% 12 of 39 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:00
Demian Maia 0 22 of 83 26% 25 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
3 Colby Covington 0 13 of 47 27% 16 of 50 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:00
Demian Maia 0 29 of 109 26% 52 of 133 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Colby Covington 53 of 151 35% 53 of 149 0 of 1 0 of 1 51 of 148 2 of 3 0 of 0
Demian Maia 88 of 317 27% 65 of 286 1 of 4 22 of 27 81 of 304 4 of 8 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Colby Covington 29 of 66 43% 29 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0 29 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 37 of 125 29% 18 of 99 1 of 4 18 of 22 37 of 125 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Colby Covington 11 of 38 28% 11 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 1 11 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
Demian Maia 22 of 83 26% 20 of 80 0 of 0 2 of 3 20 of 77 2 of 5 0 of 1
3 Colby Covington 13 of 47 27% 13 of 46 0 of 1 0 of 0 11 of 45 2 of 2 0 of 0
Demian Maia 29 of 109 26% 27 of 107 0 of 0 2 of 2 24 of 102 2 of 3 3 of 4
LOSS vs Tyron Woodley
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · Jul 29, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyron Woodley 1 57 of 153 37% 57 of 153 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Demian Maia 0 28 of 89 31% 29 of 90 0 of 21 0% 0 0 0:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyron Woodley 0 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Demian Maia 0 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:38
2 Tyron Woodley 1 14 of 29 48% 14 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Demian Maia 0 4 of 14 28% 4 of 14 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Tyron Woodley 0 12 of 41 29% 12 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Demian Maia 0 8 of 24 33% 8 of 24 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Tyron Woodley 0 15 of 39 38% 15 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Demian Maia 0 5 of 25 20% 5 of 25 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:11
5 Tyron Woodley 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Demian Maia 0 8 of 20 40% 9 of 21 0 of 7 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyron Woodley 57 of 153 37% 40 of 131 13 of 18 4 of 4 56 of 152 1 of 1 0 of 0
Demian Maia 28 of 89 31% 23 of 83 2 of 3 3 of 3 26 of 87 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyron Woodley 6 of 18 33% 5 of 16 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tyron Woodley 14 of 29 48% 9 of 24 3 of 3 2 of 2 14 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 4 of 14 28% 4 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Tyron Woodley 12 of 41 29% 9 of 37 1 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 8 of 24 33% 6 of 22 0 of 0 2 of 2 8 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Tyron Woodley 15 of 39 38% 11 of 32 4 of 7 0 of 0 15 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 5 of 25 20% 4 of 23 0 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Tyron Woodley 10 of 26 38% 6 of 22 4 of 4 0 of 0 9 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Demian Maia 8 of 20 40% 6 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
Neil Magny - Fight History
LOSS vs Yaroslav Amosov
Submission R1 3:14 · UFC on ESPN: Royval vs. Kape · Dec 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Neil Magny 0 5 of 11 45% 15 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yaroslav Amosov 0 9 of 19 47% 13 of 27 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Neil Magny 0 5 of 11 45% 15 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yaroslav Amosov 0 9 of 19 47% 13 of 27 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:56
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Neil Magny 5 of 11 45% 2 of 8 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yaroslav Amosov 9 of 19 47% 3 of 12 0 of 0 6 of 7 8 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Neil Magny 5 of 11 45% 2 of 8 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yaroslav Amosov 9 of 19 47% 3 of 12 0 of 0 6 of 7 8 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Yaroslav Amosov vs. Neil Magny
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Amosov (-400); Magny (+300)

Round 1
Your guess is as good as ours as to what the deal was today with this welterweight pairing. Once buried on the prelims, it now headlines them in open defiance of a rumor swirling that Magny was forced out of the fight. Still very much on the card, grizzled veteran and proud trap fight setter Magny (31-13, 23-12 UFC) may be the biggest underdog on the card despite being on his first win streak since 2022. The reason for the odds discrepancy is because he is facing once-beaten former Bellator king Amosov (28-1, 0-0 UFC), who had a de facto tune-up fight in March against Curtis Millender on the regionals before bouncing into the UFC. Grappling is likely about to be the name of the game for the next 15 minutes or fewer, and referee Herb Dean will oversee the proceedings. There is no sign of a glove touch between the two.
Magny leads the dance with a leg kick, and Amosov throws one back that is checked. Magny jabs the body with the ball of his foot, and he dodges to avoid a looping counter. Magny sticks and moves, and he leans as a head kick grazes the side of his melon. Magny’s jab puts him too close to the wrestler, who grabs hold of him and tries to perform a double from behind. He chains it into a single, and Magny breaks out of it all and pops Amosov with a jab and a knee. They tie up, and Amosov looks for a short shot but takes a few more knees. The clinch leads to Amosov going for a single, and Magny falls to his back as Amosov establishes half guard. Amosov wraps his left arm around the head, possibly setting up an arm-triangle choke while simultaneously looking to pass guard with his legs. Magny controls his foe’s left arm to thwart a submission coming together, as well as a guard pass.
Amosov nails his foe with a short left, and he climbs up and over to grab hold of an anaconda choke while skipping straight past mount. The Ukrainian rolls through it to hold on in a nearly north-south posture, and the submission is now ironclad. Magny pushes off on his adversary’s ankle, arm and anything else he can grab hold of, hoping to get some space and save himself, to no avail.
Before he goes out on his shield, Magny taps out on Amosov’s posterior. Just like that, “Dynamo” has passed his first UFC test with flying colors, putting away a longtime veteran in just a couple minutes. On the microphone, Amosov introduces himself to his new company, saying “hi” to the other men at 170 pounds that he can dance with soon.

The Official Result
Yaroslav Amosov def. Neil Magny R1 3:14 via Submission (Anaconda Choke)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Yaroslav Amosov

Cody picks Amosov, citing his elite takedown defense and striking. He acknowledges Magny's experience and cardio but thinks Amosov's skills will prevail. He expects Amosov to win the first two rounds and possibly finish.

"Give me Amosov here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Yaroslav Amosov

Connor also picks Amosov, but notes that Amosov has cut back on his striking and become more grappling-focused, which could be a problem against certain opponents. However, he believes Magny is a good matchup for Amosov's style. He foresees a dominant win but warns that Amosov may struggle against fighters like Ian Garry who can stuff takedowns.

"I think this will be a good fight for him. I foresee him having a dreadful fight with ian gary... but I'm glad he's here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Yaroslav Amosov

Lucrative James picks Yaroslav Amosov confidently, highlighting his elite wrestling and submission skills. He notes Neil Magny's history of being submitted and outgrappled, and believes Amosov will pass the 'Neil Magny test' with a submission. He projects Amosov as a -300 favorite.

"I'm actually going to go out there and pick Yarislav Amos to submit him, you know, to finish what Jake Matthews started."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Paul leans toward Magny as a live dog, citing too many question marks with Amosov's activity and motivation. He thinks Magny's experience and cardio could pay off if Amosov fades, but is not confident enough to lay the price. He suggests live betting Magny.

"Dog or pass. Neil Magny at plus 300 is never... Live bet him after the first round and you get a better price."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Yaroslav Amosov

Zane picks Amosov confidently, predicting a dominant grappling performance. He notes that Magny is bad off his back and that Amosov's wrestling and top pressure will be too much. He compares it to Magny's losses against strong wrestlers like Gilbert Burns and RDA. He expects Amosov to get a takedown early and transition to a submission.

Odds: Amosov opened -500, now -400; Magny opened +375, now +300. Zane is okay with the odds.
"I do think he's gonna run shop on the Omegne. I think this is actually the kind of fight where this is gonna look a lot more like Neil Magni versus Gilbert Burns."
WIN vs Jake Matthews
Submission R3 3:08 · UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Sep 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jake Matthews 0 18 of 44 40% 28 of 54 0 of 1 0% 3 1 4:43
Neil Magny 0 31 of 57 54% 73 of 103 3 of 5 60% 1 0 2:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jake Matthews 0 9 of 20 45% 10 of 21 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:22
Neil Magny 0 18 of 32 56% 24 of 38 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:08
2 Jake Matthews 0 7 of 16 43% 14 of 23 0 of 0 --- 1 0 3:53
Neil Magny 0 7 of 14 50% 22 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Jake Matthews 0 2 of 8 25% 4 of 10 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:28
Neil Magny 0 6 of 11 54% 27 of 36 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jake Matthews 18 of 44 40% 11 of 36 4 of 4 3 of 4 15 of 37 2 of 4 1 of 3
Neil Magny 31 of 57 54% 28 of 52 1 of 2 2 of 3 29 of 52 2 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jake Matthews 9 of 20 45% 4 of 14 3 of 3 2 of 3 8 of 18 1 of 2 0 of 0
Neil Magny 18 of 32 56% 16 of 30 0 of 0 2 of 2 18 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jake Matthews 7 of 16 43% 5 of 14 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 3
Neil Magny 7 of 14 50% 7 of 12 0 of 1 0 of 1 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jake Matthews 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 0
Neil Magny 6 of 11 54% 5 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7 2 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jake Matthews vs. Neil Magny
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Matthews (-475); Magny (+350)

Round 1
Two of the most experienced welterweights in the company wage battle as the main card rolls on, with betting lines a lot wider than most would expect. A substantial favorite of -400 or above, the younger Matthews (22-7, 15-7 UFC) is on his first three-fight win streak in five years. On the other side of the coin, the 38-year-old Magny (30-13, 23-12 UFC) has dropped two of three, all knockouts. The respectful gentlemen will not likely need any refs to keep things clean, but they nevertheless will be joined by referee Jim Perdios. A cordial fist bump is exchanged.
The two swat at one another early with single distant strikes, and Matthews have wider arcs on them but are less accurate. Magny bounces off the cage wall to let go with a low kick, and he is knocked back from a right hand. Magny recovers and flicks out his jab, and he takes a strong calf kick that gives him pause. Magny’s jab bounces off the forehead, and he pushes off the face and his finger grazes the eye. Perdios tells them to be careful, and they carry on.
Matthews chips at the front leg, and Magny spurs into action with a long flurry of punches that largely miss the mark. “The Haitian Sensation” goes after a takedown, and Matthews stops it in its tracks and backs Magny off with a clubbing right hand. Matthews digs a left to the liver and two rights to the head, and he lets Magny unload on him so he can counter back. Magny stays behind his jab, and when Matthews closes in, Magny ties him up. Matthews gets free, and Magny shoots in deep for a double. Matthews tries to defend with a guillotine on the way down, and Magny fights the hand to alleviate the pressure. Magny cannot fight off the choke, and Matthews rolls him over to full mount with one arm holding tight. Matthews squeezes with all his weight, and Magny relaxes and his right arm starts to fall to the side. Perdios waves the fight off right at the bell for a technical submission while saying, “he’s out,” and Magny immediately shouts “No” several times as he stands back up to declare that he is not out. Despite that Perdios called off the fight, he goes back on his decision and says that the fight is still on and that the round is over. This is extremely confusing, as Perdios came into contact with the fighters a moment before the horn sounded, so by definition it should go down as a tech sub or possibly a no contest due to a premature stoppage. Magny catches a serious break here, and he goes back to his corner mad as can be.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Matthews

Round 2
We have reached Round 2 despite the stoppage-non-stoppage. Magny appears fine again, and Matthews lays into him with early offense. The punches and elbows from Matthews lead to a takedown from him, and he drags the grizzled veteran to the floor. From there, Matthews starts to impose his grappling game, comfortably shifting from position to position. “The Celtic Kid” relocates himself into a mounted triangle, with Perdios watching on closely. Magny hangs on tight, not giving up even in a bad, bad way. Magny manages to break out of the sub, but he still finds himself on his back absorbing strikes when not dealing with a submission attempt, setup or trap. Matthews softens up the midsection and moves to half guard, and he hunts for an arm-triangle choke at the same time. The dueling actions allow Magny to get out of the choke and wrap up his opponent. Matthews rides out the remainder of the round on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Matthews

Round 3
The elder statesman presses the action to start the final round, and he strikes his way into a trip attempt. Matthews remains upright without issue, and he pushes Magny back to reset. Magny tackles his man to the canvas, and Matthews clings to a guillotine choke like before. With the choke in, Matthews uses his feet to walk across the cage wall and flip himself over, but Magny frees himself before getting mounted. Both stand up, and Magny knees the Aussie in the body a few times. Magny presses Matthews down to knee him in the face in the clinch, and he does work with body shots. Matthews busts out of the clinch and retreats, and Magny chases after him and hurts him with a combination of punches. Magny strikes his way into securing a takedown, and he steps into full mount. Matthews scrambles and turns over to get Magny off of him, and he counters with a single as Magny stands up. Magny lifts Matthews up during a takedown and was going to perform a pro wrestling move but spiking is illegal so he thinks twice.
Using his long arms, Magny laces them beneath Matthews’ armpits and under the throat with a surprise brabo choke. Matthews does not panic, even though he has taken some shots and may be fading. As Magny exerts heavy chest pressure with the choke tight as a drum, Matthews has no way out. Before long, he taps out, and Magny has staged the incredible comeback that would only be shocking if it was not Neil “Expletive Deleted” Magny.
Think back to Magny vs. Hector Lombard, or when he snared Daniel Rodriguez in a choke. For the latter, that was the last time Magny landed a submission—and it was a brabo choke then, too. The victor walks back to his corner grinning from ear to ear, even as the crowd does not like it. The story on this match may not be done here, depending on if there is an official review or appeal of the actions in the first round. For the time being, Magny has done it again, pulling off a third-round victory after taking a beating. Matthews is the first fighter repping Oceania tonight to come up short, with their record currently 7-1 with three more to go tonight.

The Official Result
Neil Magny def. Jake Matthews R3 3:08 via Submission (Brabo Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Angelo picks Jake Matthews, the biggest favorite on the card, citing his well-rounded skills and high level of competition. He believes Matthews will avoid Magny's clinch game and use takedowns and busy hands to win. He notes that Magny struggles against younger, faster fighters and that Matthews is not stupid enough to engage in a clinch battle.

"Jake Matthews is the pick. That's why he's a five to one favorite here. He was a six to1 favorite, so it did tighten a little bit, but I don't think that's a reflection of people losing confidence as much …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Big Brady picks Jake Matthews to win by second-round submission. He believes Matthews has finally put it together and is well-rounded with good boxing, wrestling, and BJJ. He thinks Magny is on the decline and has been submitted in six of his UFC losses.

second round submission
"Give me Jake Matthews. Give me Jake Matthews by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Cody picks Matthews, noting he has finally become consistent and is putting his skills together. He believes Matthews is a better striker than Magny now and can defend takedowns, forcing a striking match where Matthews should outland Magny. He also cites the hometown advantage and Magny's recent struggles against leg kicks and younger fighters.

"I got Jake Matthews at this line. He's the biggest favorite on the card, right?"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Connor also picks Matthews, agreeing that Magny's jab-dependent pressure game has faded. He notes that Magny's recent wins have come against opponents who fell apart, and that Matthews's improved combination punching and wrestling could exploit Magny's vulnerabilities. Connor is cautious because Matthews has a history of reverting to a bad back-foot boxing style, but he thinks Matthews's recent performances show he has moved past that.

"I think I'll go with Matthews."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

James picks Jake Matthews confidently, stating he is better everywhere—striking, wrestling, and power. He notes Matthews is in his prime at 31 and on the best run of his career, while Magny is an aging veteran with a poor ground game. He expects Matthews to take Magny down at will and possibly finish, but predicts a clear decision (30-27 or 29-28) as most likely.

"Jake Matthews is pretty confident pick here for me."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

James confidently picks Jake Matthews, noting he is the biggest favorite on the card. He predicts a finish, possibly by arm triangle, as Magny is older and has been finished recently. He believes Matthews is in his prime and should win easily.

by submission (arm triangle) or inside the distance
"I'm actually going to predict the finish here now."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

The host expects Matthews to take a grapple-heavy approach like his last fight. He acknowledges Magny could have an advantage if the fight goes into deeper water, but thinks Matthews will do enough in the first 10-12 minutes to win on the scorecards.

"I'm expecting Matthews to take another grapple heavy approach just like he did last time around against Chitty and Jakuani. I think he might meet some resistance here and should this fight go into deeper water, it could start to …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

The Guru picks Jake Matthews, believing his well-rounded game and experience against long fighters like Neil Magny will pay off. He notes Matthews' recent submission win and thinks he can replicate that success. He predicts a TKO via low kicks and follow-up shots, calling it a coming-out party.

TKO via low kicks
"I'm going to go with Jake Matthews getting this one done."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Zane picks Matthews, citing his recent improvements in combination punching and assertiveness. He notes that Magny looks vulnerable on the feet now and has lost his ability to put pressure with his jab. Zane thinks Matthews's wrestling and willingness to mix it up could be key, as Magny has historically struggled against wrestlers. He acknowledges that Matthews's past struggles are a concern, but believes the current version of Matthews is better.

"I think I'll go with Matthews."
KO/TKO R2 4:39 · UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Aug 02, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Neil Magny 0 42 of 67 62% 80 of 113 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:19
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 20 of 42 47% 42 of 69 1 of 5 20% 0 0 4:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Neil Magny 0 17 of 36 47% 29 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 18 of 36 50% 24 of 42 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:03
2 Neil Magny 0 25 of 31 80% 51 of 63 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:03
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 2 of 6 33% 18 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Neil Magny 42 of 67 62% 38 of 61 4 of 4 0 of 2 19 of 43 3 of 3 20 of 21
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 20 of 42 47% 5 of 24 4 of 5 11 of 13 17 of 38 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Neil Magny 17 of 36 47% 13 of 30 4 of 4 0 of 2 16 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 18 of 36 50% 5 of 20 4 of 5 9 of 11 15 of 32 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Neil Magny 25 of 31 80% 25 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 8 2 of 2 20 of 21
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 2 of 6 33% 0 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Connor picks Zaleski, noting that Magny has looked increasingly hurtable and gun-shy, while Zaleski still has power and violence in his game. He acknowledges both fighters may be declining, but Zaleski's underlying physicality and scrambling ability give him the edge. Connor doubts Magny can replicate his past comeback wins.

"I got to pick Zaleski at that point."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Zane also picks Zaleski, pointing out that Magny's recent performances show a decline in output and durability. He notes that Zaleski has historically struggled against rangy strikers, but Magny's current form may not pose that threat. Zane believes Zaleski's wrestling and scrambling will be too much for Magny to handle.

"I mean, Zaleski's just more dangerous competitive wrestler and scrambler."
CANCEL vs Gunnar Nelson
LOSS vs Carlos Prates
KO (punch) R1 4:50 · UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · Nov 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Prates 0 10 of 20 50% 23 of 33 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:31
Neil Magny 2 12 of 21 57% 13 of 22 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Prates 0 10 of 20 50% 23 of 33 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:31
Neil Magny 2 12 of 21 57% 13 of 22 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Prates 10 of 20 50% 7 of 17 2 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
Neil Magny 12 of 21 57% 9 of 17 1 of 1 2 of 3 10 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Prates 10 of 20 50% 7 of 17 2 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
Neil Magny 12 of 21 57% 9 of 17 1 of 1 2 of 3 10 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Prates (-650), Magny (+470)

Round 1
Ever the “trap fight” connoisseur, Magny (29-12, 22-11 UFC) would like nothing more than to derail the quick rise of power-punching Prates (20-6, 3-0 UFC). The durable New Yorker by way of Colorado may be susceptible to getting blitzed early, but he also has the unearthly ability to outlast opponents and turn on the jets. Ask Hector Lombard, Mike Malott or Daniel Rodriguez, to name but a few. With five rounds to get things done, it could be a lot of fun until what could be a dramatic end. Referee Mark Smith is in it for the long haul, and he brings the welterweights to the center of the cage to bump fists. They do not bump fists. It’s on with the show. Magny strides into the middle of the Octagon to get going, where he uses his length with low kicks and jabs to surprise the Brazilian with a sudden level change. Magny goes after a single-leg takedown, pressing Prates to the cage but falling to his back. Magny lands on his back and closes his guard, with Prates posturing up for a second before Magny wraps him up again. Prates looks for one big right hand when he finds space, and Magny boxes his ears and tries to keep him tight. Prates works his way out of the grappling and stands back up, and he launches a leg kick only to have to deal with three lunging punches flying back his way. Magny come up close and elbows his opponent, looking for a trip and letting it go to chase Prates while dinging him with a right hand. Magny drops down for a single, and Prates hops out of danger and finds himself dealing with a second attempt as soon as he spins around. Magny lifts the limb up, and Prates’ balance is immaculate as he not only stays on his feet but lowers his leg back down. Prates gets off a single knee with his back to the wall, and Magny hangs on until Prates explodes out. Magny jabs from afar, and he leans to avoid a looping left hand. Prates has his left hand chambered, and he stops a double-leg entry and kicks Magny’s rear leg. Prates whips a left to Magny’s chest, and he knocks Magny down with a fierce short right hand. Magny is told to stand back up, and Prates walks him down, swarming him with punches. Magny bounces off the cage wall, kicking out with front kicks to keep distance before selling out for a single. Prates defends it, frees his trapped arm and walks Magny down. Magny snipes him from a long way out, with his reaching limbs effectively keeping “The Nightmare” at bay…until they don’t.
Prates unloads a monstrous left hand that does not even connect flush but buzzes the top of the veteran’s head. This is all it takes, with Prates apparently possessing “dim mak” as Magny falls to his face, unconscious. Prates walks off, knowing his work here is done, and everyone in the Apex is stunned as they may not have seen the mighty sleep-inducing blow.
“Breakthrough Fighter of the Year” may be well and truly sewn up, with Prates making his promotional debut in 2024 and scoring four knockouts, none greater than his annihilation of tricky vet Magny. The perennial contender comes to as Smith tends to him, and Prates dons the trademark Fighting Nerds glasses to celebrate his terrific handiwork. The Brazilian calls his shot, with very specific plans in mind: Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 312 in Australia. If this is too big of a gap, dispatching the UFC’s #15 Magny and moving on to a top-five adversary, he is reasonable and suggests he and Geoff Neal would engage in a wild one. No matter what the heavy-handed rising fighter gets next, we will be here for it—just like we will be ready for UFC 309 next week. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Neil Magny R1 4:50 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Angelo picks Carlos Prates despite Neil Magny's vast experience. He believes Prates is too accurate with good footwork to be caught in a takedown. He notes Prates' power and finishing streak (9-fight KO streak). He thinks Magny would need to wrestle without getting hit, which is unlikely. He expects Prates to make it 10 KOs in a row.

"Carlos prattes is the pick the odds do seem to be long gone though maybe they'll start to correct themselves"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Big Brady is confident in Prates, citing his speed, power, and range. He believes Magny is on the decline and will struggle to get the fight to the ground. He predicts Prates will land a knockout in the second round.

Prates by KO/TKO, round 2
"I'll say second round for Carlos press there by knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Cody agrees Prates is the favorite but warns about the wide money line. He notes Prates' unique style and finishing ability, but also points out that Magny has a grappling and cardio advantage if the fight goes past two rounds. Cody suggests a live bet on Magny if Prates doesn't finish early, but ultimately picks Prates.

Prates by KO, under 2.5 rounds, live bet on Magny if fight goes past two rounds
"Carlos Prates by knockout the under two and a half and yet the guy's been smoking darts and breaking hearts."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Magny's recent performances show a decline in activity and that Prates is smart enough to kick the legs and avoid Magny's clinch. He thinks Magny's only path is if Prates makes a mistake, but he doesn't see that happening. Connor is confident Prates will win, likely by knockout.

"I think I will actually be surprised here if Neil Magny does not get knocked out."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Daniel Vreeland is confident in Carlos Prates to win by knockout, citing Prates' calf kicks and Muay Thai as key weapons against Neil Magny. He notes that Magny's reach advantage won't be an issue because Prates is a big welterweight who can fight at range and in the clinch. Vreeland expects a finish, possibly in round four, referencing the Santiago Ponzinibbio fight where Magny was finished late. He also mentions Prates' jiu-jitsu black belt but predicts a KO.

Prates by KO (-300), Prates round 1 (+200), round 2 (+350), round 3 (+450), round 4 (+900), under 2.5 rounds (-215)
"I am gonna pick Carlos Prates to come out here and put Neil Magny as another member of his highlight reel, it's going to be a 16th knockout in my opinion."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Lucrative James picks Carlos Prates to win by KO, noting that Neil Magny's best days are behind him and that Prates has a strong win streak. He acknowledges that Prates has shown some vulnerabilities, such as being wobbled and dropping rounds, but believes Prates will eventually land a kill shot. He also mentions that Magny does well against southpaws, which could make the fight closer early, but ultimately expects Prates to finish him.

by KO
"Carlos pratez via KO is the final prediction"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Carlos Prates

Prates is a -750 favorite and the perfect fighter to cause Neil Magny issues. He will use leg kicks to slow Magny down, then open up with combinations to find a big shot and finish him in the second or third round.

wins inside distance, round 2-3, odds -750
"prates finding himself as a minus 750 favor going into this matchup and it completely makes sense as he is the perfect architect of fighter that causes Neil Magny issues look for a lot of light kicks from proess to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Paul believes Prates is an absolute sniper with devastating power, as shown by knocking out Jin Jin Leang Lee. He thinks Neil Magny's only path is wrestling, but if he can't get takedowns, his striking won't scare Prates. Paul sees a knockout as almost inevitable and recommends the under 2.5 rounds or Prates by KO prop.

Prates by KO, under 2.5 rounds
"Carlos Prates by knockout seems like it's almost inevitable."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

The Guru picks Carlos Prates to win by TKO, citing Prates' Muay Thai style, low kicks, and finishing ability. He notes Neil Magny's poor leg kick defense and recent TKO loss two and a half months ago, suggesting Magny is vulnerable. He expects Prates to chew up Magny's leg early and finish with body shots in round two or late round one.

TKO win, low kicks, body shots finish, round 2 or late round 1
"I'm going to go with Carlos prattes getting this one done with prattes people are say are you Gary couldn't finish nil magnet dude mag Gary doesn't have power like that"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Zane is very high on Prates, calling him his favorite striker in MMA. He praises Prates' understanding of range, active defense, and ability to cut off opponents' offense. He believes Prates will outclass Magny, who has become inactive and is vulnerable to leg kicks and pressure. Zane expects a knockout.

"I'm picking Pratas very confidently here."
LOSS vs Michael Morales
TKO (punches) R1 4:39 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Borralho · Aug 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Morales 0 5 of 11 45% 13 of 19 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:05
Neil Magny 1 34 of 40 85% 39 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Morales 0 5 of 11 45% 13 of 19 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:05
Neil Magny 1 34 of 40 85% 39 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Morales 5 of 11 45% 1 of 7 2 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 1
Neil Magny 34 of 40 85% 30 of 35 0 of 0 4 of 5 4 of 5 0 of 0 30 of 35
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Morales 5 of 11 45% 1 of 7 2 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 1
Neil Magny 34 of 40 85% 30 of 35 0 of 0 4 of 5 4 of 5 0 of 0 30 of 35
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Angelo picks Michael Morales confidently, calling himself a 'big Michael Morales guy.' He highlights Morales' national championships in freestyle wrestling and Muay Thai, his fantastic footwork, and his clean takedowns. He believes Morales is better than Magny everywhere and will win with accurate striking and takedowns. He notes Magny's age and recent comeback win but thinks Morales is the superior fighter.

"I think Morales is better than Magny literally everywhere literally everywhere I can't think of a single aspect in MMA where Neil Magny is better"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Cody picks Morales because he is a young, talented prospect with a judo background and power. He thinks Morales will outwork Magny and possibly get a finish. He notes that Magny has looked slow and flat-footed in recent fights and has been outworked by lesser fighters. He believes Morales' cardio is good and he won't fade like some prospects.

Michael Morales by decision
"sign me up for Michael Morales but at 850 at 850 we got to be talking about this thing like it is a slam dunk Surefire thing"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Michael Morales, arguing that Morales thrives in the clinch where Magny often beats opponents. He notes Morales' improving hands and wrestling background, and believes he will beat Magny at his own game and possibly get a finish.

finish
"I think is going to actually beat Magny at his own game and possibly get a finish along the way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Brevin picks Magny as a big underdog, citing his experience against top competition, his size and reach advantage, and his grappling edge. He thinks Morales is overhyped and will get fraud-checked. He notes Magny is a gatekeeper who often wins these matchups. JP disagrees, picking Morales, calling Magny a 40-year-old gatekeeper who goes to decision and has shown his ceiling. JP thinks Morales is better and younger.

Magny by submission (potential)
"I'm gonna take another big Underdog here give me Neil Magny wow give me Neil Magny to get done"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 20, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Paul takes a small shot on Magny at +600 because he thinks the line is too wide. He notes that Morales has looked good but has dropped rounds and hasn't faced a veteran like Magny. He thinks Magny's cardio and clinch work could give Morales problems if the fight goes deep. He admits Morales likely wins but the price is worth a small bet.

"I took a small poke on Neil magn at plus 600 um it's not going to kill me either way"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Morales

The MMA Guru picks Michael Morales because he believes Neil Magny is past his prime at 37 and does not check low kicks. He notes Morales is young (25), talented, and has good wins over Jake Matthews and Max Griffin. He expects Morales to attack the low kicks and stuff takedowns, winning on the feet.

"I'm going to go with Michael Morales um he beat Jake Matthews I think that's a decent win Max Griffin a decent win"
WIN vs Mike Malott
TKO (punches) R3 4:45 · UFC 297: Strickland vs. du Plessis · Jan 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Neil Magny 0 57 of 102 55% 110 of 159 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:47
Mike Malott 0 45 of 67 67% 100 of 128 4 of 6 66% 0 0 6:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Neil Magny 0 5 of 25 20% 12 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Mike Malott 0 20 of 31 64% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
2 Neil Magny 0 6 of 15 40% 18 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Mike Malott 0 21 of 30 70% 67 of 79 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:08
3 Neil Magny 0 46 of 62 74% 80 of 98 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:44
Mike Malott 0 4 of 6 66% 13 of 18 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Neil Magny 57 of 102 55% 52 of 95 3 of 3 2 of 4 13 of 44 0 of 2 44 of 56
Mike Malott 45 of 67 67% 19 of 40 4 of 4 22 of 23 30 of 49 0 of 0 15 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Neil Magny 5 of 25 20% 4 of 22 0 of 0 1 of 3 5 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mike Malott 20 of 31 64% 2 of 13 1 of 1 17 of 17 20 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Neil Magny 6 of 15 40% 4 of 13 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mike Malott 21 of 30 70% 14 of 22 3 of 3 4 of 5 9 of 17 0 of 0 12 of 13
3 Neil Magny 46 of 62 74% 44 of 60 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 44 of 56
Mike Malott 4 of 6 66% 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Neil Magny vs. Mike Malott
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Malott (-340), Magny (+270)

Round 1
With Malott looking to show he is a Top 15 fighter, and Magny aiming to prove that he can do more than man the velvet rope for that category even at age 36, only one is likely to get his wish. Kevin Macdonald is the referee. Both fighters are in orthodox stance, and Malott lands a front kick to Magny’s lead leg immediately. Magny comes forward behind a high guard and Malott goes back to the lead leg with another push kick. Moments later, he hits Magny with a calf kick to that leg, then another. A strategy appears to be emerging. Malott steps in behind an overhand right, and Magny meets him, grabbing a clinch. Malott immediately shoves him off. Malott surges forward with a pair of big looping hooks. They fall short but succeed in backing Magny straight to the fence. Malott throws a lightning-fast head kick, but Magny just as quickly steps inside and takes the clinch again. Malott drives Magny to the fence and pummels his way out of the position, moving away from the cage and forcing Magny to follow. Malott goes back to the leg kicks, all aimed at the lead left leg of Magny. Malott is now getting Magny to bite on hip feints, indicating the effect the kicks have had so far. Malott lands a glancing low kick at the 10-second clapper, the last offense of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Malott

Round 2
Magny throws a low kick to open the round, which Malott checks. Magny stalks forward and Malott gives ground, then plants and catches Magny with a clean two-punch combination that stings. Malott lands an inside kick to the lead leg, followed by a body kick on the other side. Magny comes crashing forward, but Malott uses a body lock to take him down, landing in full guard. Magny works to create some space to escape, but Malott more or less lets him up. Malott closes the distance again and uses a body lock and trip to dump the taller man to the floor at the base of the fence. Malott is in a sort of loose half guard, hovering over Magny, and when he dives in with an elbow strike, Magny locks down his right leg. Malott gets a few shots in from half guard, then stands over Magny. Magny throws a upkick and Malott jumps right back onto him, moving to mount. Magny spins to put his feet against the fence, looking to use the cage to bridge and escape, but Malott scoots him away from the cage and stays in mount, throwing methodical, heavy elbows and forearms. Malott isolates Magny’s left arm, perhaps considering a submission, but at the 10-second clapper gives up on it and throws strikes until the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Malott

Round 3
Malott throws a leg kick and backs Magny up with punches, then changes levels and more or less bowls him over for a fast takedown, landing in mount. Magny wraps his arms around Malott, keeping him from posturing up and doing major damage, then bucks and returns to his feet. Malott follows him across the cage and launches himself at his hips, scoring another easy takedown. Magny gets to full guard, then grapevines the legs, trying to keep Malott from going anywhere. Malott throws some short strikes before standing up out of guard and dives back in, but ends up in full guard again. Magny stands and Malott grabs a guillotine, pulling guard as he does, but Magny pops his head out and ends up on top, where he starts throwing punches with some urgency. Malott is suddenly looking exhausted and Magny is all over him. Malott turns to his side, but otherwise offers no real defense as Magny continues throwing a stream of unblocked punches with both hands. There’s less than 30 seconds left. Referee Macdonald is looking on closely, and as motivated as he might be to avoid any possibility of a quick stoppage, after at least two dozen unanswered blows, he interposes himself for the TKO with just 15 seconds left on the clock. What a comeback by the ageless, indefatigable Neil Magny.

The Official Result
Neil Magny def. Mike Malott R3 4:45 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Angelo picks Malott, viewing this as a showcase for the Canadian prospect. He acknowledges Magny's experience and toughness but notes Magny has looked declining in recent fights. He warns against overexposure on Malott since this is his toughest opponent, but plans to have some action on him.

Will have some action on Malott; avoid overexposure
"this has to be a Mike mot pick this is the matchup in Canada for a reason"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Big Brady is very confident in Malott, calling it a setup fight. He notes Malott is dangerous everywhere with 100% finish rate, while Magny is 36, has taken damage, and has been submitted six times. He expects Malott to get a takedown and submit Magny in the first round.

first round submission
"give be Mike mot to win this fight by first round sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Cody is confident Malott wins, citing his size, strength, power, and well-rounded skills. He notes Malott's quick finishes but acknowledges Magny's durability and cardio. He suggests Malott by decision as a prop because Magny is tough to finish.

Malott by decision at +400 to +450
"Mot definitely the pick... the prop is a little tricky... maybe mot by decision."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Daniel Vreeland picks Mike Malott to win but is hesitant due to Malott's unproven ceiling and Magny's veteran tactics. He acknowledges Malott's dangerous finishing ability and guillotine series, but worries about Magny's clinch game and length. He notes Magny has been fading but has also been a tough fade historically. He passes on betting the -400 line.

"I'm going to pick Mike mot to continuous streak and show out"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Vreeland picks Magny as a dog, citing the massive step up in competition for Malott. He notes Magny's size, reach advantage, and ability to impose his game plan. Vreeland questions Malott's path to victory, doubting he can outwrestle Magny or overcome the reach disadvantage on the feet. He sees value in the plus money.

plus 310 dog money
"I am going dog that's going to surprise you probably right Neil Magny I had a feeling you Neil Magny big step up like this is this is a real big step up from lot unless Magny is totally from …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Fox also picks Magny, agreeing with Vreeland on the step up in competition. He notes Magny's reach advantage and good wrestling defense. Fox doesn't see a clear path for Malott, as Magny is a tall fighter who knows how to use his reach. He likes the dog money.

plus 310 dog money
"I don't really like the pass to Victory here from a lot do you think he's like gonna out wrestle Neil Magny like mag's got pretty good wrestling right like he he's at least defensively seems like he's got good …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)

This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Magny vs Malott.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mike Malott

I fully expect Malott to play with Magny on the feet, eventually drag the fight to the ground, and strangle him with a submission. Malott's grappling advantage is huge, and Magny has historically struggled against strong grapplers. The -365 line is a bit wide for a prospect against a veteran, but I think the fight will look like a cakewalk for Malott. I'm looking for a first-round submission.

submission victory, first round finish
"I fully expect Mike mot to play with Magny on the feet a little bit eventually drag this fight to the ground and strangle Neo Magny on route to a submission Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Paul agrees Malott wins but won't bet the -400 moneyline. He thinks Malott has the power and grappling advantage but Magny is durable and has gone the distance with top guys. He considers Malott by decision as a possible prop.

Malott by decision (mentioned as a possibility)
"I think mot wins... there's no way I touch the minus 400."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mike Malott

The MMA Guru picks Mike Malott, citing Magny's age and recent KO loss to Ian Garry. He trusts Malott's pressure and leg kicks, and predicts a submission via arm triangle in round two. He also mentions Magny's personal issues (custody battle) as a potential distraction.

submission, round 2
"I'm going to go with Mike Mallet I was going I was honestly hedging the idea of picking Neil Magny here"
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–24) R3 5:00 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ian Machado Garry 0 27 of 66 40% 51 of 93 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:10
Neil Magny 0 91 of 150 60% 111 of 171 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ian Machado Garry 0 8 of 24 33% 22 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Neil Magny 0 20 of 32 62% 33 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:07
2 Ian Machado Garry 0 11 of 27 40% 15 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:05
Neil Magny 0 31 of 53 58% 35 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
3 Ian Machado Garry 0 8 of 15 53% 14 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Neil Magny 0 40 of 65 61% 43 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ian Machado Garry 27 of 66 40% 10 of 41 7 of 11 10 of 14 25 of 61 2 of 5 0 of 0
Neil Magny 91 of 150 60% 32 of 90 16 of 17 43 of 43 84 of 140 4 of 5 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ian Machado Garry 8 of 24 33% 3 of 15 1 of 2 4 of 7 7 of 21 1 of 3 0 of 0
Neil Magny 20 of 32 62% 5 of 17 4 of 4 11 of 11 19 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 1
2 Ian Machado Garry 11 of 27 40% 5 of 20 3 of 4 3 of 3 10 of 25 1 of 2 0 of 0
Neil Magny 31 of 53 58% 9 of 30 6 of 7 16 of 16 28 of 49 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Ian Machado Garry 8 of 15 53% 2 of 6 3 of 5 3 of 4 8 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Neil Magny 40 of 65 61% 18 of 43 6 of 6 16 of 16 37 of 61 0 of 0 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Angelo is confident in Ian Garry, believing his striking speed and timing will keep Neil Magny at range and prevent him from using his grappling. He notes that Magny is stepping up on short notice and that Garry has shown he can overcome adversity, as in the Song Kenan fight. He expects a clear decision win similar to Garry's win over Darian Weeks.

"Ian Gary is going to be the pick and I think this is going to look like when Ian beat Darian weeks... very confident in Ian especially with Neil magni stepping up on short notice."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Big Brady picks Ian Garry to win by third-round knockout, citing Garry's size, cardio, and power advantage. He notes Magny has been finished in 8 of 10 losses and struggled against Phil Rowe. Brady worries about Garry's striking defense but believes Magny lacks the power to exploit it.

win by KO, round 3
"give me Ian Gary to win this fight I'll take Ian Gary to win by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Cody acknowledges Garry's talent but notes his past struggles and poor takedown defense. He thinks Magny could pose problems with wrestling, but Magny looked washed in his last fight. He expects Garry to win, likely by decision, but doesn't love the -400 line. He suggests Garry may not add much value to parlays.

under 57.5 significant strikes for Garry; inside the distance possible but not confident
"I would take Gary now minus 400 again it's just not a money line that I love inside the distance if magnes completely washed sure inside the distance"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Daniel Levi is sold on Ian Machado Garry, calling him one of the best prospects in the welterweight division. He notes that Garry has good takedown defense, a solid get-up game, and has gone five rounds. Levi believes Garry will not fall into the trap of clinching with Magny, as other prospects have, because of his range management and footwork. He acknowledges the price is trash at -500 but still likes Garry to win.

Price is trash but Garry wins; minus 500 is too high but still a pick
"I've been sold since day one... the price is trash but I like Ian Gary in the spot"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Lucrative James picks Ian Garry to dominate, citing the 11-year age difference, Magny's short notice, and Magny's tendency to get finished when he loses. He believes Garry has a good chance of finishing Magny, though he notes Garry is more of a point striker. He prefers the finish prop over decision.

Ian Garry inside distance (plus 600)
"I honestly think Gary's gonna dominate this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Garry is the sharper striker and should land clean shots down the pipe. Magny struggles against technical strikers and has been finished before. Garry's ability to avoid the cage and pivot off will prevent Magny from grinding him. Expect a knockout finish, making the KO prop at even money a strong play.

Garry by KO
"I'd rather take a shot on that because if he's going to look that minus 400 in my opinion it's going to be with him getting his hand raised by finish in the spot I don't think it comes by …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

The MMA Guru picks Ian Garry over Neil Magny. He notes Garry's rapid improvement, judo background, and takedown defense. He thinks Garry will pick at range, chop at the legs, and possibly finish early. He also mentions Magny taking the fight on short notice and at 170 lbs, which favors Garry. He predicts a first-round KO after leg kicks.

round one KO after leg kicks
"I think he smokes Neil Magnum round one after chewing up his leg for about three minutes"