Career Averages - Rafael dos Anjos
Career Averages - Nate Diaz
Rafael dos Anjos - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Neal | 1 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 21 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geoff Neal | 1 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 21 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Neal | 18 of 30 | 60% | 12 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 4 of 13 | 30% | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geoff Neal | 18 of 30 | 60% | 12 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 4 of 13 | 30% | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Geoff Neal but is not confident enough to bet. He notes Neal is younger, has good takedown defense and hands, and should win if the fight stays standing. However, he acknowledges RDA could get takedowns and grind out a decision. He will leave this fight alone due to the risk.
Big Brady strongly favors Neal, calling it a bad matchup for RDA. He notes that RDA struggles at welterweight against bigger guys and that Neal has elite takedown defense (87%). He believes Neal is the much better striker with more power and that RDA won't be able to take him down. He predicts Neal wins by decision, stuffing takedowns and doing better work on the feet.
Cody leans toward Rafael dos Anjos as an underdog, noting that RDA's wrestling and cardio could neutralize Neal's striking. He points out that Neal has struggled against wrestlers like Neil Magny, and that RDA's takedown-heavy approach could frustrate Neal. However, Cody is hesitant because RDA is 40 and has lost to superior grapplers. He suggests a small play or pass.
Connor picks Neal, agreeing that RDA at welterweight is not the same bully. He notes that RDA's game relies on being a physical bully, which he can't do at welterweight, and that Neal is capable of putting together moments of offense that win rounds. Connor also mentions that RDA is almost 40 and has a lot of mileage.
Daniel Vreeland picks Geoff Neal to win, citing significant advantages in size, speed, and youth. He notes that Neal has faced much larger opponents recently and that RDA is a smaller fighter who may struggle with Neal's reach and takedown defense. Vreeland acknowledges Neal's inconsistency but believes this is a favorable matchup.
Daniel Vreeland picks Neal, citing his size, youth, and recent competition against top welterweights. He notes that RDA's wrestling has dropped off significantly, giving up 19 takedowns in his last two fights. Vreeland believes Neal's speed and game plan will be too much for the aging RDA.
Jeff Fox also picks Neal, emphasizing RDA's declining wrestling. He notes that Neal has sneaky good wrestling and that RDA's takedown defense has worsened. Fox expects Neal to be faster on the feet and implement a better game plan.
Welterweight is not the best weight class for dos Anjos, and Neal should stop his takedowns and utilize his striking advantage. It wouldn't surprise me if Neal knocks dos Anjos out, but I lean with Neal winning on the scorecards.
Paul picks Geoff Neal, believing his reach and boxing will keep the fight standing. He notes that RDA's wrestling has not been as effective at welterweight against bigger opponents. Paul thinks Neal can stuff takedowns and use his length to outpoint RDA. He is not highly confident but leans Neal.
The Guru picks Geoff Neal by TKO in the second round, arguing that Rafael dos Anjos at 39 is outmatched physically. He notes Neal's size, power, and takedown defense (citing the Belal Muhammad fight) will be too much for RDA. He believes RDA's only path is to brawl in the pocket, which favors Neal. The Guru predicts a vicious finish, possibly ending RDA's career.
Zane picks Neal because RDA at welterweight is not the same relentless pressure fighter he was at lightweight; he's more reluctant to apply pressure and gets hit harder. Neal is a puncher who can keep his output up and win rounds, even if he gets stalled for one. Zane notes that RDA's wrestling is deteriorating and he's almost 40.
Zane clearly favored Neal, describing the fight as a 'sad days fight' for RDA. He noted that RDA's game of physical bullying and pressure doesn't work at welterweight because guys are too big and hit too hard. Zane pointed out that RDA got crushed by the first shot and blew out his knee, calling it an old man way to lose. He praised Neal's performance but remains skeptical about Neal's title prospects.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 57 of 102 | 55% | 111 of 163 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 7:01 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 36 of 78 | 46% | 39 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 40 of 61 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 14 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 28 of 36 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 2:40 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 12 of 25 | 48% | 12 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 28 of 50 | 56% | 43 of 66 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:46 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 13 of 34 | 38% | 13 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 57 of 102 | 55% | 48 of 90 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 46 of 88 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 6 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 36 of 78 | 46% | 24 of 61 | 5 of 9 | 7 of 8 | 26 of 67 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 19 of 34 | 55% | 17 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 25 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 11 of 19 | 57% | 9 of 14 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 10 of 18 | 55% | 6 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 12 of 25 | 48% | 9 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Mateusz Gamrot | 28 of 50 | 56% | 25 of 45 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 13 of 34 | 38% | 6 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo is very confident in Mateusz Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling and pace. He believes RDA has no wrestling defense and will spend much of the fight on his back. He thinks Gamrot will shoot takedowns, grind, and win. He also mentions over 2.5 rounds as a good bet.
Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot to win by decision. He notes that RDA is 39 and has struggled with wrestling, and that Gamrot has the cardio to shoot many takedowns. He expects the striking to be competitive, but Gamrot's takedowns will seal each round.
Cody thinks RDA is being priced as if he's completely washed, but he believes RDA is better at 155 and that the Luque loss was due to size. He thinks RDA's striking and jiu-jitsu make him competitive, and at plus money, he's worth a look.
Daniel is confident Gamrot will win, citing his wrestling and low single takedowns. He notes RDA was outwrestled by Vicente Luque, who is not known for offensive wrestling, and expects Gamrot to dominate on the ground. However, he dislikes the minus 450 price and says he would only bet if the price improves.
Gamrot is a high-level wrestler who should be too strong, fast, and young for the aging dos Anjos. Dos Anjos has shown declining takedown defense, as seen in his loss to Vicente Luque where he was controlled for 11 minutes. Gamrot will likely get the fight to the ground and grind on dos Anjos, wearing him down. I expect Gamrot to win a decision, as finishing a durable veteran like dos Anjos is tough. The prop 'Gamrot by decision' is the best way to attack this fight without taking too much chalk.
Paul disagrees, pointing out that RDA has historically struggled against wrestlers and has been taken down repeatedly. He thinks Gamrot's chain wrestling, cardio, and durability will overwhelm RDA, who will likely lose the first two rounds and be unable to come back.
The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing his superior technical wrestling, strength, and versatility compared to RDA. He notes the three-round format benefits Gamrot's pace, and that RDA is 39 and has talked about retirement. He also highlights that Gamrot trains with Dustin Poirier, which should help his preparation. He predicts Gamrot will ragdoll RDA and win a decision or late finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 72 of 141 | 51% | 138 of 221 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 12:01 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 66 of 136 | 48% | 94 of 170 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 3:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 20 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 17 of 37 | 45% | 20 of 41 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:20 | |
| 2 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 11 of 26 | 42% | 32 of 48 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 14 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 | |
| 3 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 18 of 39 | 46% | 27 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:51 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 12 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 | |
| 4 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 26 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 9 of 15 | 60% | 20 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 5 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 17 of 26 | 65% | 33 of 45 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 28 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicente Luque | 72 of 141 | 51% | 48 of 115 | 17 of 19 | 7 of 7 | 60 of 127 | 8 of 8 | 4 of 6 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 66 of 136 | 48% | 42 of 108 | 19 of 23 | 5 of 5 | 38 of 105 | 26 of 27 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vicente Luque | 16 of 32 | 50% | 9 of 24 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 17 of 37 | 45% | 8 of 26 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 28 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Vicente Luque | 11 of 26 | 42% | 7 of 22 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 10 of 22 | 45% | 4 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 15 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Vicente Luque | 18 of 39 | 46% | 12 of 32 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 11 of 27 | 40% | 8 of 23 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Vicente Luque | 10 of 18 | 55% | 6 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 9 of 15 | 60% | 5 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Vicente Luque | 17 of 26 | 65% | 14 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 19 of 35 | 54% | 17 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 26 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 4 |
Angelo picks dos Anjos, citing his grappling and takedowns as the key. He notes Luque has poor takedown defense (except against Belal) and dos Anjos is a high-level grappler. He already has a moneyline bet at -125.
Big Brady picks Vicente Luque to win by third-round knockout, but calls it the sketchiest fight on the card. He notes RDA's age (38) and size disadvantage at welterweight, but also Luque's recent knockout loss and brain hemorrhage concerns. He believes Luque's constant pressure and power will eventually catch RDA, but admits there are red flags on both sides. He says he wants nothing to do with the fight.
Cody picks Luque at plus money, arguing that dos Anjos is a former lightweight who has struggled at welterweight (2-5 in last 7). He notes Luque's strong get-up game against Belal Muhammad and believes dos Anjos won't be able to take him down consistently. He also mentions Luque's camp at Kill Cliff FC with Gilbert Burns preparing him for the wrestling. However, he acknowledges Luque's damage accumulation and brain hemorrhage history but still sees him edging out a five-round decision.
James picks RDA over Luque, citing Luque's brutal knockout loss to Neal and subsequent brain issues as major negatives. He sees the striking as fairly even but gives RDA a grappling advantage, noting RDA can lean on takedowns and jiu-jitsu. James acknowledges Luque's size and age advantage but feels the unknowns around Luque's recovery tilt the fight toward RDA. He is not yet committed to betting, saying he will discuss with his team.
Dos Anjos is durable and blends striking and grappling well. Luque is on a two-fight losing streak and had brain bleeding after his last KO. Dos Anjos should be able to mix in takedowns and combinations to outwork Luque over 25 minutes. Luque may have success striking, but dos Anjos's versatility will be too much.
Paul leans toward dos Anjos, citing his better cardio over five rounds and ability to mix in wrestling. He expresses concern about Luque's brain hemorrhage in 2022 and doesn't want to put money behind someone with that history. He acknowledges the fight is close and understands Cody's points about dos Anjos' wrestling not being as effective against bigger welterweights, but slightly favors RDA.
The MMA Guru picks Vicente Luque over Rafael dos Anjos, despite Luque's brain hemorrhage, assuming it was mild and he had a year off. He argues Luque is bigger, more powerful, has a better chin, and is hard to finish on the ground. He doubts RDA's ability to control Luque for five rounds and predicts Luque will finish RDA in round three by D'Arce choke.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 14 of 29 | 48% | 61 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Bryan Barberena | 0 | 20 of 25 | 80% | 36 of 41 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 6:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 25 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bryan Barberena | 0 | 16 of 20 | 80% | 30 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 4:06 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 36 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Bryan Barberena | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 6 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 2:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 14 of 29 | 48% | 6 of 18 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 10 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Bryan Barberena | 20 of 25 | 80% | 3 of 8 | 17 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 14 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 9 of 19 | 47% | 1 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Bryan Barberena | 16 of 20 | 80% | 2 of 6 | 14 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 12 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Bryan Barberena | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Rafael dos Anjos, calling him the better fighter everywhere: more technical striking, much better grappling, higher fight IQ, and higher level of competition. He notes RDA is 38 and coming off a KO loss, but trusts him to grapple early and often. He thinks Barberena's 44% takedown defense and lack of one-punch KO power (except against Lawler) make RDA the pick.
Big Brady is extremely confident in RDA, citing a massive step down in competition and a favorable stylistic matchup. He notes Barberena's poor takedown defense (55%) and defensive irresponsibility, and RDA's advantage everywhere. He expects RDA to win however he wants, predicting a decision but noting a finish is possible.
Cody agrees RDA wins handily, citing his elite wrestling and Barberena's poor takedown defense. He notes RDA hasn't finished anyone recently but expects multiple takedowns and control. He prefers the over 2.5 takedowns prop over significant strikes.
Daniel Levi picks RDA to win by decision, mixing in takedowns. He acknowledges Barberena's durability and power (dropped Leon Edwards) but believes RDA's wrestling and blending of attacks will be too much. He is not interested in betting at the heavy price (-550) and calls it a pass.
The host is very confident in dos Anjos, calling him a 'lock of the night' essentially. He believes dos Anjos is far superior and will mix his striking and takedowns to control Barberena. He notes Barberena's struggles against grapplers like Jason Witt. He expects dos Anjos to win by decision but says he wouldn't bat an eye at parlaying him at the price.
Paul sees RDA as dominant everywhere and expects a straightforward win. He notes Barberena's durability but thinks RDA can finish him, especially inside the distance. He mentions RDA's takedown-heavy style and Barberena's poor takedown defense.
The MMA Guru picks Rafael dos Anjos, noting Barberena struggles when opponents mix up attacks. He believes RDA's body work and leg kicks will be effective, and that Barberena's losses to Jason Witt and Randy Brown show vulnerability. He predicts RDA will win a clear decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 54 of 110 | 49% | 90 of 162 | 2 of 16 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 6:13 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 64 of 159 | 40% | 92 of 192 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:59 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 22 of 40 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:08 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 14 of 41 | 34% | 17 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 25 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 17 of 44 | 38% | 20 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 3 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 9 of 22 | 40% | 13 of 32 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:46 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 17 of 38 | 44% | 24 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 4 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 15 of 23 | 65% | 28 of 41 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:48 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 12 of 27 | 44% | 27 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:27 | |
| 5 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Fiziev | 54 of 110 | 49% | 31 of 80 | 12 of 14 | 11 of 16 | 50 of 106 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 64 of 159 | 40% | 32 of 102 | 27 of 52 | 5 of 5 | 62 of 155 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Fiziev | 9 of 26 | 34% | 5 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 14 of 41 | 34% | 8 of 26 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafael Fiziev | 19 of 36 | 52% | 10 of 26 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 18 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 17 of 44 | 38% | 6 of 27 | 9 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rafael Fiziev | 9 of 22 | 40% | 6 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 17 of 38 | 44% | 7 of 26 | 8 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Rafael Fiziev | 15 of 23 | 65% | 9 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 12 of 27 | 44% | 7 of 17 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Rafael Fiziev | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Fiziev (-200), dos Anjos (+170)
Round 1
The battle for Rafael supremacy comes to a head in this main event, in the only fight tonight containing two ranked competitors. Former lightweight king dos Anjos (31-13, 20-11 UFC) hopes to push towards another run at the title, but he will have to get through “Ataman” Fiziev (11-1, 5-1 UFC) to get there. This intriguing clash between veteran and upstart, grappler and striker, and old lion vs. young thundercat will be joined by referee Mark Smith. When the cage door closes, the Rafaels touch gloves ahead of their 25-minute tilt -- if needed – and they are ready to finally get after it. Fiziev strikes first with a sharp body kick, and dos Anjos looks to cut him off and he tosses out a low kick. Fiziev answers with another body kick, and he does a dodge reminiscent of the film “The Matrix” as he leans back from a high kick. Dos Anjos steps in with a left hand that catches “Ataman” on the chin, and he ducks a looping left to pop Fiziev with a punch of his own. The Brazilian charges in to press Fiziev against the cage, and he looks for a body lock to slow Fiziev down and starts spamming knees to the thigh. Fiziev keeps his balance when dos Anjos looks for a level change, and dos Anjos comfortable crushes Fiziev against the wire. The full body weight of the former champ is pressed against Fiziev, who finds himself pinned and unable to get any offense off from up close. Fiziev quickly turns to get out, and he steps in with a knee and a right hand as they split. Fiziev delivers two kicks to the body, and dos Anjos replies with one. Fiziev answers with another, and he kicks high and jumps in the air with a knee. Two punches to the body lead to one to the head from the Tiger Muay Thai fighter, and he just misses with a whipping head kick. Dos Anjos thumps a leg kick low and keeps his guard high and tight to block incoming fire until he can shoot for a double. Fiziev’s takedown defense holds up on the attempt, and he absorbs a few knees and an elbow before spinning out. Fiziev steps in with an elbow, and he catches dos Anjos with a pair of right hands. Fiziev sneaks in a left hand that shakes dos Anjos up, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Round 2
The lightweights clap hands to start off the second frame, and they meet in the center of the Octagon. Fiziev looses a head kick that misses the mark, and dos Anjos pounds him in the torso with a kick. Dos Anjos steps in with a left, and he takes a body shot on the way in. Fiziev catches a second loud body kick, and he clinches up but separates when nothing comes of it. The Brazilian loads up on a left hand, and Fiziev pushes him off and jams his thumb in dos Anjos’ right eye. Dos Anjos takes 30 seconds to blink it out, and when they resume, Fiziev kicks high quickly. Dos Anjos marches him down and catches him with a left hook, and he dives forward for a single. Fiziev spins around, and dos Anjos grabs hold of his back with his hands clasped. Fiziev turns back around to stop it, and he pushes off to split and get back the center of the cage. Dos Anjos keeps light on his feet and strides forward with a straight left hand, and he steps on Fiziev’s foot to hold him in that position. Fiziev once more uses the elastic that is his spine to bend backwards and dodge a head kick, and he counters with an uppercut and a left hook. Fiziev pushes out a jab and takes one clean one back, and dos Anjos kicks him in the ribs. Dos Anjos hunts for a takedown, and Fiziev deftly reverses him and hip tosses dos Anjos to his knees. Fiziev gets up first, and he pushes dos Anjos back to the wire, but cannot grind him there. “Ataman” wings an uppercut, and dos Anjos steps in to clinch in the middle of the Octagon. With a body lock, dos Anjos attempts to take Fiziev down, but once more, he is stopped in his tracks from doing so. Dos Anjos scores a knee on the break, and he pokes at Fiziev with an uppercut on his way back. Dos Anjos reaches him with a right, and Fiziev responds with a powerful one that stuns dos Anjos momentarily. The ex-champ gathers his thoughts and kicks low, and he reaches out with a short right hook. Fiziev kicks him in the body and gets clipped with a long left hand, and the bell rings to end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Round 3
Between rounds, dos Anjos is concerned about a cut below his right elbow. His corner tells him to forget about it, and there is a split on his forearm from blocking a kick from the previous round. The round opens with a few punches from Fiziev, and dos Anjos darts forward in pursuit of a double-leg takedown. Fiziev posts off his arm to keep himself upright, and dos Anjos doggedly pursues it to ground Fiziev. The Brazilian kicks Fiziev’s foot out to get the takedown he was seeking, and Fiziev climbs right back up without concern. As dos Anjos hangs on in the clinch, Fiziev looks at the video screen to find a way out. He does this as dos Anjos goes after a single, yanking his leg free and gaining some separation to work several body kicks. After absorbing a few more blows, dos Anjos darts in with a double, and he pushes Fiziev back but is nowhere close to taking him down. Smith tells them to work as they just hang on in the clinch, and dos Anjos blasts a knee to the liver as Fiziev splits off. The lightweights trade low kicks, and Fiziev wings a short left hook that gets dos Anjos’ attention. A straight right hand from Fiziev makes dos Anjos blink it out, and Fiziev is the one to initiate a clinch, pushing the former champ up against the chain-link fencing. Dos Anjos turns the corner to break apart, and he connects with a chopping leg kick only to eat a jump knee in the process. Dos Anjos tries to keep his head movement to evade multiple straight punches aimed at his head, and the two men trade one after the other in the middle of the cage. The round ends as Fiziev connects with a right.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Round 4
Ever the veteran, dos Anjos stays a little longer on his stool between rounds, prompting Smith to hurry his corner out and get him back so that they can fight. Fiziev starts off the round with several quick kicks, and dos Anjos plods forward and the two bang heads together. The Brazilian plows forward to go after a takedown, and as dos Anjos does not get it, Smith tells him to work. Fiziev gets the break he seeks, and he splits the guard with a left hand. “Ataman” chains four punches together in a combination, and dos Anjos level changes to push in for a takedown. Fiziev spins him around and jams the ex-champion into the fence, and the position stalls until Fiziev steps back. Dos Anjos nails Fiziev with a flying knee and a few punches, and he attempts to use this momentum to take the fight down, but Fiziev is quick to stop him. Dos Anjos grabs the gloves to break out of this position, only to get warned for his attempt. They break up, and dos Anjos pops Fiziev with a left. The Brazilian snatches up a leg for a single, and Fiziev hops back and keeps his balance. Dos Anjos meets him in the center of the cage to throw hands, and dos Anjos steps in with a back-elbow. Fiziev fights for a sweep takedown, and dos Anjos keeps his feet beneath him and punches his way into a takedown effort. Tired of struggling to get the takedown, “RDA” opts to lift Fiziev clear off the ground and slam him down to the mat. Dos Anjos gloms on to Fiziev while not doing anything from top position, prompting Smith to clap his hands and tell dos Anjos to work. Dos Anjos stays squeezed with his shoulder to the chest of his opponent, and Fiziev powers up with one second to spare. They both land a single punch as the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 dos Anjos
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 dos Anjos
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 dos Anjos
Round 5
Smith tells dos Anjos to stay busy in his positions between rounds, and the final round kicks off with a glove touch. The Brazilian kicks low and Fiziev kicks high, and dos Anjos pushes out with a straight left hand.
Fiziev jumps in with a knee, and when that gets blocked, he releases a left hook that totally demolishes dos Anjos. The former champion falls crashing to the mat, and Fiziev leaps over and hammers him with two consciousness-depriving punches before Smith steps in to call a halt to this contest.
Dos Anjos sits up to protest the stoppage, but there is nothing he can do, as the fight is over. Fiziev runs off to celebrate, earning easily the biggest win of his career and answering several questions that loomed about his talents. “Now we know who is the greatest Rafael in the UFC,” Fiziev shouts in his post-fight interview. He then calls for tennis star Rafael Nadal to determine the ultimate Rafael supremacy. Fiziev doubles down on the callout, boldly claiming that he can beat Nadal in his own sport. It is exceptionally unlikely this will come to fruition, but he did punch his ticket to a huge fight at 155 pounds next. No matter who Fiziev faces next, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Rafael Fiziev def. Rafael dos Anjos R5 0:18 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Rafael dos Anjos as a +170 underdog, citing his grappling, size advantage, cardio, and durability. He notes Fiziev is the better striker but has questionable cardio, especially in a 5-round fight. He points out that RDA has not lost in 6 years without being taken down, and Fiziev is unlikely to initiate takedowns. He already has a moneyline bet on RDA at +170.
Big Brady picks Rafael dos Anjos, citing the five-round distance as a key factor. He notes that Fiziev has never seen the fourth or fifth round and has slowed down in third rounds of past fights, while RDA has proven cardio and experience in championship rounds. He expects RDA to mix in takedowns to test Fiziev's 95% takedown defense and cardio, potentially taking over in later rounds. He predicts a close decision win for RDA, acknowledging Fiziev could knock him out early.
Cody believes Fiziev has the advantage in striking with better hands and kicks, and his takedown defense is strong. He thinks Fiziev's cardio is sufficient to secure early rounds and then survive if needed. He sees RDA as a gatekeeper and Fiziev as a rising contender, calling it a passing of the torch.
The host discusses the Fiziev vs RDA fight but does not place a bet on it. He acknowledges the value on RDA as an underdog and respects those who pick him, but he personally keeps the fight out of his betting card. He mentions having Fiziev in a parlay but does not elaborate on a clear pick. He notes that Fiziev is younger, faster, and stronger, but RDA is durable and could win by decision. Ultimately, he does not commit to a side.
Paul thinks the price on Fiziev is too wide and expects to get RDA at a better price closer to fight time. He notes RDA's wrestling could be a factor, especially in a five-round fight, and that Fiziev's takedown defense hasn't been fully tested. He calls it a dogger pass situation but leans RDA.
The Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, believing RDA's style is tailor-made to lose to Fiziev. He notes Fiziev's body work, takedown defense, and youth advantage. He predicts Fiziev will win the first three rounds decisively, possibly a 4-1 decision, with RDA making a late resurgence but ultimately losing.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 149 of 286 | 52% | 179 of 318 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 13:22 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 88 of 172 | 51% | 99 of 185 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 22 of 34 | 64% | 30 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:12 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 10 of 23 | 43% | 12 of 25 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 27 of 47 | 57% | 32 of 52 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 40 of 84 | 47% | 52 of 97 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:05 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 15 of 25 | 60% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 27 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:53 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 20 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 38 of 79 | 48% | 38 of 79 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 36 of 73 | 49% | 36 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 149 of 286 | 52% | 119 of 255 | 23 of 24 | 7 of 7 | 84 of 198 | 7 of 8 | 58 of 80 |
| Renato Moicano | 88 of 172 | 51% | 77 of 158 | 8 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 81 of 164 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 22 of 34 | 64% | 17 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 14 |
| Renato Moicano | 10 of 23 | 43% | 6 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 19 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 27 of 47 | 57% | 19 of 39 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 7 |
| Renato Moicano | 15 of 29 | 51% | 12 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rafael dos Anjos | 40 of 84 | 47% | 34 of 77 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 23 of 38 |
| Renato Moicano | 15 of 25 | 60% | 14 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Rafael dos Anjos | 22 of 42 | 52% | 17 of 37 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 21 |
| Renato Moicano | 12 of 22 | 54% | 12 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 5 | Rafael dos Anjos | 38 of 79 | 48% | 32 of 73 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 37 of 78 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Renato Moicano | 36 of 73 | 49% | 33 of 67 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 71 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Fiziev but is hesitant, noting his brain says Fiziev but his heart says RDA. He highlights Fiziev's phenomenal striking and takedown defense, but questions his cardio over five rounds. He points out that RDA hasn't been finished in six years and only loses to wrestlers who take him down. He considers a plus 5.5 round bet on RDA.
Cody is torn because Moicano looked good on short notice against Hernandez, but the five-round nature favors RDA's experience and cardio. He notes RDA has fought 25 minutes many times and is a big lightweight who fought at welterweight, while Moicano has never gone five rounds and gassed in the Ortega fight. The catchweight of 160 also helps RDA. Cody ultimately flips to RDA but is hesitant due to the short-notice variable.
Daniel Levi picks Renato Moicano for the upset, but with hesitation. He notes that Moicano is the much bigger man with a size and reach advantage, and has good volume and a solid black belt. He points out that RDA has been taken down frequently in recent fights (by Usman, Colby, Chiesa, Leon) and that Moicano could have success in grappling exchanges. However, he conditions his pick on Moicano looking in shape at the weigh-in; if Moicano appears fat or out of shape, he would switch to RDA. He views this as a dog-or-pass situation and believes Moicano is on an upward trajectory.
RDA is a tough veteran with excellent cardio and durability, while Moicano is taking the fight on four days' notice with travel and weight cut issues. Moicano will likely come out strong early but fade as the fight goes on. RDA's grappling and pressure will wear on Moicano, leading to a finish in the later rounds. The short notice and travel are huge red flags for Moicano.
Paul initially considered Moicano as a live underdog but after tape study flipped to RDA. He emphasizes RDA's five-round experience, size advantage (fought at 170), and clean camp versus Moicano's short notice and history of gassing. Paul points out Moicano's takedowns zap his cardio and he struggles striking backwards, while RDA mixes grappling and pace well. He calls it dog or pass but leans RDA.
The MMA Guru picks Renato Moicano (referred to as 'fizzyev') over Rafael dos Anjos, calling it a lock. He notes Moicano's speed advantage and RDA's decline at 155, especially his chin. He predicts Moicano will chew up RDA's legs with kicks in the first round, and when RDA pressures in the second, Moicano will catch him with a straight right for a TKO. He mentions RDA's only chance was in a five-rounder, but Moicano's patience and striking will prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 98 of 190 | 51% | 134 of 226 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:40 |
| Paul Felder | 0 | 92 of 162 | 56% | 155 of 231 | 6 of 22 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 14:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 17 of 45 | 37% | 17 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Paul Felder | 0 | 22 of 34 | 64% | 27 of 41 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:06 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 29 of 46 | 63% | 35 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Felder | 0 | 27 of 47 | 57% | 31 of 51 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 | |
| 3 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 21 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Paul Felder | 0 | 13 of 18 | 72% | 28 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:17 | |
| 4 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 26 of 55 | 47% | 39 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Paul Felder | 0 | 19 of 41 | 46% | 34 of 57 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:54 | |
| 5 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 22 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Felder | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 35 of 47 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 4:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 98 of 190 | 51% | 64 of 147 | 20 of 29 | 14 of 14 | 76 of 161 | 21 of 28 | 1 of 1 |
| Paul Felder | 92 of 162 | 56% | 53 of 113 | 35 of 45 | 4 of 4 | 61 of 125 | 26 of 29 | 5 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 17 of 45 | 37% | 8 of 33 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 16 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Felder | 22 of 34 | 64% | 13 of 24 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 28 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 29 of 46 | 63% | 23 of 38 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 38 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Felder | 27 of 47 | 57% | 19 of 36 | 7 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 40 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rafael dos Anjos | 12 of 21 | 57% | 5 of 11 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 13 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Felder | 13 of 18 | 72% | 7 of 10 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Rafael dos Anjos | 26 of 55 | 47% | 20 of 48 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 48 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Felder | 19 of 41 | 46% | 7 of 26 | 11 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 30 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 2 | |
| 5 | Rafael dos Anjos | 14 of 23 | 60% | 8 of 17 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Paul Felder | 11 of 22 | 50% | 7 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 |
Big Brady picks RDA because he had a full camp training for Islam Makhachev, which should help his wrestling and grappling against Felder, who took the fight on five days' notice. He notes RDA is the more technical striker with higher output, and Felder is dangerous but RDA has a solid chin. He expects RDA to mix in takedowns and grind out a decision, possibly a late finish.
Daniel picks dos Anjos because he believes Felder's timing will be off due to lack of sparring and wrestling preparation on short notice. He notes dos Anjos has been training for a five-round fight against Islam Makhachev and is motivated dropping back to 155. He also points out that Felder historically struggles with volume and that dos Anjos can mix in takedowns, referencing Edson Barboza taking Felder down. He acknowledges Felder's durability and power but thinks dos Anjos will outwork him.
The host favors Rafael dos Anjos due to his experience in five-round fights, having gone to the fourth round or later in seven of his last nine five-round bouts. He believes dos Anjos's aggressive striking, leg kicks, and superior jiu-jitsu will overwhelm Paul Felder, who is taking the fight on six days' notice and has only one five-round fight experience. The host notes Felder's durability but expects dos Anjos to win via decision, possibly mixing in takedowns and ground control.
The MMA Guru picks Rafael dos Anjos, citing Felder's short notice and difficult weight cut as major disadvantages. He believes dos Anjos will invest in body and leg kicks early, then finish Felder by exhaustion in the later rounds. He notes that dos Anjos has been training for this fight and is not a big lightweight, while Felder's reach advantage is neutralized by dos Anjos' similar reach. He also mentions that dos Anjos will be more confident on the feet without facing a wrestler.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 14 of 36 | 38% | 23 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 9 of 51 | 17% | 54 of 107 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 10:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 1 of 12 | 8% | 2 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:14 | |
| 2 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 8 of 24 | 33% | 11 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 7 of 34 | 20% | 12 of 39 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 | |
| 3 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 40 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 14 of 36 | 38% | 2 of 23 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 9 | 14 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 9 of 51 | 17% | 6 of 45 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 4 of 9 | 44% | 1 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 of 12 | 8% | 0 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Chiesa | 8 of 24 | 33% | 0 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 8 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 7 of 34 | 20% | 5 of 29 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michael Chiesa | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Daniel picks RDA to win by decision, acknowledging that Chiesa might give him some trouble early with his grappling and size. He notes that RDA has been taken down 28 times in his last four fights but believes RDA's superior striking and jiu-jitsu will prevail. He mentions that RDA is on the tail end of his career but still the better fighter.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa, emphasizing that the fight is three rounds, which favors Chiesa's ability to hold dos Anjos down for two rounds. He notes Chiesa is a large welterweight with a significant reach advantage, and that dos Anjos may come back in the third but it will be too late. He predicts Chiesa wins the first two rounds and loses the third, winning by decision.
Nate Diaz - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 101 of 217 | 46% | 101 of 217 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 80 of 172 | 46% | 80 of 172 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 22 of 51 | 43% | 22 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 19 of 45 | 42% | 19 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 28 of 59 | 47% | 28 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 20 of 51 | 39% | 20 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 26 of 56 | 46% | 26 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 30 of 51 | 58% | 30 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 25 of 51 | 49% | 25 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 11 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Diaz | 101 of 217 | 46% | 71 of 178 | 21 of 30 | 9 of 9 | 99 of 214 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 80 of 172 | 46% | 23 of 106 | 23 of 27 | 34 of 39 | 80 of 172 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Diaz | 22 of 51 | 43% | 12 of 36 | 6 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 19 of 45 | 42% | 5 of 28 | 7 of 8 | 7 of 9 | 19 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nate Diaz | 28 of 59 | 47% | 19 of 49 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 28 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 20 of 51 | 39% | 5 of 35 | 6 of 6 | 9 of 10 | 20 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nate Diaz | 26 of 56 | 46% | 21 of 48 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 24 of 53 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 30 of 51 | 58% | 12 of 31 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 15 | 30 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Nate Diaz | 25 of 51 | 49% | 19 of 45 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 11 of 25 | 44% | 1 of 12 | 5 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Li Jingliang, citing Tony Ferguson's recent knockout and fast turnaround. He thinks Ferguson's chin is compromised and Jingliang's power and feints will confuse him. He notes Ferguson looked good against Chandler but was put out badly, and the three-month turnaround is too soon.
Big Brady picks Li Jingliang to win by first-round knockout, expressing concern for Tony Ferguson's durability after taking massive damage in recent fights. He notes Ferguson is 38, moving up in weight, and has been knocked out brutally by Chandler. He highlights Li's power, having knocked out tough fighters like Ponzinibbio and Salikhov, and predicts an early finish.
Cody is confident that Khamzat Chimaev will win, noting that Chimaev is a massive favorite and that Nate Diaz is an undersized former 155-pounder. He believes Chimaev's size and strength will be too much, and that Diaz's jiu-jitsu won't be a factor. Cody mentions that the only value is in props like Chimaev over 1.5 takedowns, and he doesn't see Diaz winning even one out of ten times.
Daniel Levi picks Khamzat Chimaev to win, citing Chimaev's wrestling and power as key factors. He acknowledges Diaz's durability and ability to survive, but believes Chimaev's improvements and pacing will lead to victory. Levi notes that Diaz's age and scar tissue could be issues, and he expects Chimaev to dominate with ground and pound. He is not betting the moneyline due to the heavy juice, but is confident in Chimaev's win.
Jacob picks Li Jingliang, emphasizing his feints and angles will give Ferguson PTSD. He thinks Ferguson will be gun-shy and react big to feints. He notes Ferguson could wrestle but doubts he will, and even if he does, Jingliang's takedown defense may hold. He calls it a bad matchup for Ferguson.
The host is extremely confident in Khamzat Chimaev, expecting him to take Nate Diaz down immediately and smash him on the ground. He dismisses Diaz's durability and jiu-jitsu, citing Chimaev's wrestling and size. He took under 1.5 rounds at +120 and suggests Chimaev round one at +165.
Paul picks Chimaev to win but expresses concerns about his cardio and persona. He notes that Chimaev's fight with Gilbert Burns showed he is human and may have cardio issues, and that the five-round fight could favor Diaz if Chimaev tires. However, he believes Chimaev has learned from that fight and will hold down Diaz more easily. Paul also mentions the over 1.5 rounds and over on takedowns as props.
The MMA Guru picks Tony Ferguson to win by 48-47 decision. He predicts Ferguson wins rounds 1, 2, and 4, while Diaz wins round 3, and round 5 is a stalemate. Ferguson chews up Diaz's leg and body with teeps and front kicks, lands elbows that cut Diaz, and freestyles with 360 body shots. Diaz has moments, including a takedown in round 3, but Ferguson scrambles out and lands more. The fight ends with both swinging, but Ferguson's output edges him the win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Edwards | 0 | 77 of 132 | 58% | 83 of 139 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 4:59 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 76 of 162 | 46% | 130 of 223 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 14 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 10 of 23 | 43% | 19 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 17 of 30 | 56% | 18 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:09 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 13 of 30 | 43% | 29 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 3 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 13 of 15 | 86% | 17 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 20 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 | |
| 4 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 18 of 36 | 50% | 18 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 19 of 45 | 42% | 20 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 5 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 31 of 52 | 59% | 42 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Edwards | 77 of 132 | 58% | 48 of 97 | 6 of 12 | 23 of 23 | 68 of 118 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 8 |
| Nate Diaz | 76 of 162 | 46% | 52 of 129 | 16 of 21 | 8 of 12 | 66 of 152 | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leon Edwards | 13 of 19 | 68% | 8 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Nate Diaz | 10 of 23 | 43% | 4 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 4 | 9 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Leon Edwards | 17 of 30 | 56% | 10 of 21 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 16 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Nate Diaz | 13 of 30 | 43% | 6 of 20 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Leon Edwards | 13 of 15 | 86% | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
| Nate Diaz | 3 of 12 | 25% | 1 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Leon Edwards | 18 of 36 | 50% | 10 of 26 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Diaz | 19 of 45 | 42% | 13 of 36 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Leon Edwards | 16 of 32 | 50% | 11 of 26 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Diaz | 31 of 52 | 59% | 28 of 48 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 25 of 46 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Leon Edwards to win by TKO or cut stoppage, citing Edwards' youth, striking advantage, and well-rounded game. He notes Diaz is past his prime and has taken significant damage. He expects Edwards to mix in takedowns and potentially finish Diaz, possibly due to a cut.
Cody is confident Edwards wins, likely by decision, as he is a decision machine and Diaz is durable. He likes the decision prop at +135 and notes Edwards' clinch work and ring IQ. He also mentions the possibility of a cut stoppage but thinks Edwards will systematically pick Diaz apart.
Daniel Levi picks Leon Edwards to win by decision, possibly via cut stoppage. He notes Edwards' technical striking and takedowns, and Diaz's tendency to cut easily. He warns that Edwards must not get into a brawl and should manage his cardio. He respects Diaz's toughness but thinks Edwards is too well-rounded.
Edwards is superior everywhere: striking, wrestling, and clinch work. He can take Diaz down and control him, or outstrike him at range. Diaz's only path is cumulative damage in later rounds, but Edwards' cardio is solid. Edwards likely wins a decision, as Diaz is durable and hard to finish. The line is wide for a reason.
Paul is also confident in Edwards, calling him the anchor of parlays. He thinks Edwards wins by decision and likes the decision prop. He notes Edwards' excellent clinch work and high ring IQ, and believes he will systematically pick apart Diaz.
The MMA Guru is extremely confident in Leon Edwards, calling it the fight he'd pick with his life on the line. He cites Edwards' superior striking, cardio, and grappling, and notes Diaz's lack of power at 170 and decline in cardio since going vegan. He predicts a third-round TKO via body kick, as Edwards will want a finish to secure a title shot.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jorge Masvidal | 2 | 112 of 179 | 62% | 114 of 184 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 6:56 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 43 of 104 | 41% | 125 of 194 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jorge Masvidal | 1 | 35 of 54 | 64% | 37 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:58 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 34 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Jorge Masvidal | 1 | 39 of 58 | 67% | 39 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 11 of 31 | 35% | 34 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 3 | Jorge Masvidal | 0 | 38 of 67 | 56% | 38 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:53 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 19 of 46 | 41% | 57 of 86 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jorge Masvidal | 112 of 179 | 62% | 78 of 136 | 27 of 35 | 7 of 8 | 52 of 92 | 20 of 25 | 40 of 62 |
| Nate Diaz | 43 of 104 | 41% | 23 of 74 | 12 of 21 | 8 of 9 | 33 of 91 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jorge Masvidal | 35 of 54 | 64% | 21 of 34 | 12 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 15 | 7 of 9 | 18 of 30 |
| Nate Diaz | 13 of 27 | 48% | 7 of 19 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 22 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jorge Masvidal | 39 of 58 | 67% | 29 of 47 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 32 | 11 of 13 | 10 of 13 |
| Nate Diaz | 11 of 31 | 35% | 4 of 21 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 27 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jorge Masvidal | 38 of 67 | 56% | 28 of 55 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 24 of 45 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 19 |
| Nate Diaz | 19 of 46 | 41% | 12 of 34 | 5 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 42 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 69 of 133 | 51% | 86 of 153 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 2 | 1:49 |
| Anthony Pettis | 1 | 114 of 201 | 56% | 205 of 306 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 5:59 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 14 of 31 | 45% | 23 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Pettis | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 62 of 88 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:22 | |
| 2 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 36 of 66 | 54% | 40 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Pettis | 0 | 54 of 100 | 54% | 65 of 114 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:49 | |
| 3 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 23 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 2 | 1:49 |
| Anthony Pettis | 1 | 38 of 59 | 64% | 78 of 104 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:48 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Diaz | 69 of 133 | 51% | 54 of 111 | 10 of 12 | 5 of 10 | 46 of 102 | 20 of 27 | 3 of 4 |
| Anthony Pettis | 114 of 201 | 56% | 94 of 172 | 16 of 23 | 4 of 6 | 51 of 109 | 43 of 63 | 20 of 29 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Diaz | 14 of 31 | 45% | 9 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 9 of 24 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Pettis | 22 of 42 | 52% | 15 of 33 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 23 | 6 of 9 | 7 of 10 | |
| 2 | Nate Diaz | 36 of 66 | 54% | 28 of 55 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 26 of 54 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Pettis | 54 of 100 | 54% | 45 of 87 | 7 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 29 of 63 | 25 of 37 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nate Diaz | 19 of 36 | 52% | 17 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 24 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 4 |
| Anthony Pettis | 38 of 59 | 64% | 34 of 52 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 13 of 23 | 12 of 17 | 13 of 19 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor McGregor | 0 | 166 of 343 | 48% | 252 of 435 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 5:50 |
| Nate Diaz | 3 | 164 of 286 | 57% | 197 of 322 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conor McGregor | 0 | 25 of 73 | 34% | 25 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nate Diaz | 1 | 34 of 58 | 58% | 34 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 2 | Conor McGregor | 0 | 37 of 76 | 48% | 51 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Nate Diaz | 2 | 34 of 70 | 48% | 36 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 | |
| 3 | Conor McGregor | 0 | 49 of 87 | 56% | 79 of 117 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 26 of 45 | 57% | 37 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:34 | |
| 4 | Conor McGregor | 0 | 36 of 63 | 57% | 48 of 76 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 46 of 76 | 60% | 56 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 | |
| 5 | Conor McGregor | 0 | 19 of 44 | 43% | 49 of 77 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:42 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 24 of 37 | 64% | 34 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor McGregor | 166 of 343 | 48% | 107 of 256 | 50 of 71 | 9 of 16 | 88 of 227 | 77 of 112 | 1 of 4 |
| Nate Diaz | 164 of 286 | 57% | 98 of 212 | 26 of 29 | 40 of 45 | 137 of 253 | 27 of 32 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conor McGregor | 25 of 73 | 34% | 11 of 49 | 6 of 11 | 8 of 13 | 25 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Diaz | 34 of 58 | 58% | 14 of 35 | 3 of 4 | 17 of 19 | 34 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Conor McGregor | 37 of 76 | 48% | 22 of 58 | 14 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 24 of 54 | 13 of 21 | 0 of 1 |
| Nate Diaz | 34 of 70 | 48% | 19 of 54 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 11 | 31 of 67 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Conor McGregor | 49 of 87 | 56% | 40 of 72 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 42 | 31 of 45 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Diaz | 26 of 45 | 57% | 17 of 35 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 22 of 41 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Conor McGregor | 36 of 63 | 57% | 22 of 45 | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 36 | 19 of 27 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Diaz | 46 of 76 | 60% | 30 of 59 | 11 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 33 of 58 | 13 of 17 | 0 of 1 | |
| 5 | Conor McGregor | 19 of 44 | 43% | 12 of 32 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 22 | 14 of 19 | 1 of 3 |
| Nate Diaz | 24 of 37 | 64% | 18 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 17 of 29 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 61 of 140 | 43% | 66 of 145 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:39 |
| Conor McGregor | 0 | 77 of 152 | 50% | 89 of 169 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 28 of 74 | 37% | 32 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:35 |
| Conor McGregor | 0 | 23 of 62 | 37% | 26 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 2 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 33 of 66 | 50% | 34 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Conor McGregor | 0 | 54 of 90 | 60% | 63 of 101 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:47 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Diaz | 61 of 140 | 43% | 47 of 117 | 7 of 11 | 7 of 12 | 56 of 133 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 |
| Conor McGregor | 77 of 152 | 50% | 65 of 131 | 9 of 13 | 3 of 8 | 62 of 133 | 10 of 12 | 5 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Diaz | 28 of 74 | 37% | 18 of 58 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 10 | 26 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Conor McGregor | 23 of 62 | 37% | 16 of 50 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 6 | 23 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Nate Diaz | 33 of 66 | 50% | 29 of 59 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 30 of 62 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Conor McGregor | 54 of 90 | 60% | 49 of 81 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 39 of 72 | 10 of 12 | 5 of 6 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Veteran referee John McCarthy is the third man in the cage for tonight’s welterweight headliner, with judges Derek Cleary, Jeff Mullen and Glenn Trowbridge scoring the bout. The fighters are kept feet apart during final instructions, and there is no touch of gloves before or after the opening bell. McGregor opens with a pair of outside leg kicks as he pushes out from the center, moving Diaz backward toward the fence. Two more kicks connect on Diaz’s lead right leg, then another after he tries to step toward the middle. Diaz checks the next kick and gives McGregor one of his own. McGregor steps forward and connects with a left hand over the top. Diaz seems to recover quickly, then gets sent to the floor with a straight left. McGregor allows the jiu-jitsu specialist to stand as the enter the third minute of the opening round. Another slapping leg kick connects for McGregor, who shakes his head after dodging a two-piece Diaz combo. McGregor finds his straight left again as he catches Diaz leaning. The American’s face is marked up already, and he seems increasingly concerned with checking McGregor’s low kicks. Diaz takes another leg kick and walks into a left hand. The next kick from McGregor catches Diaz planting to throw a punch, and it looks like the hardest shot so far. Diaz is starting to talk to McGregor, throwing up his hands and walking forward on the Irishman. McGregor closes the round with a straight left and right hook, and Diaz is still trying to talk to him after the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 McGregor
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 McGregor
Mike Sloan scores the round 10-9 McGregor
Round 2
Diaz checks the first leg kick from McGregor, but the second one lands with authority. McGregor catches the American with another left hand, putting Diaz on his seat again. McGregor tells him to stand, then sends him right back to the floor with another combination. Diaz is bloodied now, leaking fluid from his nose as he staggers around the outside. Diaz grabs for McGregor’s legs, can’t get there, and now McGregor pushes forward with more leg kicks. Diaz tries to answer in kind, but there’s not much behind his kicks at this point. Three minutes remain in the second round, and McGregor is firmly in control of the bout. The leg kicks and left hands keep coming; though Diaz is trying to get back in the fight, the openings are simply not there. McGregor stands in front of Diaz but keeps his distance, diving inside to deliver more kicks and snappy punches. Suddenly, with 90 seconds left, Diaz starts to gain some steam. The Stockton native’s slapping punches are finding a home, and McGregor is being forced to his back foot. McGregor stumbles as he moves backward and eats a hard right as he finds his footing. Diaz swarms him against the fence, teeing off with both hands while McGregor tries to hold on and slow the pace. A looping right hand, now a body shot score for Diaz as the final seconds tick down.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 McGregor
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 McGregor
Mike Sloan scores the round 10-9 McGregor
Round 3
The welterweights have traded positions at the start of round three, with Diaz pushing out from the center and McGregor circling around the perimeter. Diaz steps out with a two-piece, pushes McGregor against the fence and looks for a trip takedown, but McGregor blocks it and reverses. Diaz spins him around again, now 80 seconds into the round. McGregor slaps with palm strikes to the sides of Diaz’s head as he fights off the clinch and trip. McGregor separates and pops Diaz with an elbow on the way out, then follows him to land a leg kick. Now it’s McGregor back in the middle and Diaz taking a breather, jawing at “The Notorious” between exchanges. McGregor throws a kick, but it’s snatched up by Diaz and used to run the Irish champ against the fence. Diaz scores with some short left hands, drops levels and tries a double-leg, but it’s blocked by McGregor. Halfway through the round, McGregor spins to take the outside position in the clinch. Diaz walks him along the fence, maybe looking for a trip, then reverses and lands body-head on the split. McGregor is jogging away as Diaz walks him down, drawing a mocking finger-point and more words from Diaz. A leg kick lands for McGregor, then a sweeping right hand for Diaz. They tie up away from the fence with 60 seconds left, then Diaz pops McGregor with a one-two on the break. Diaz shoves McGregor against the wall and begins teeing off with punches, rocking McGregor’s head from side to side. McGregor eats an uppercut, a right hook, but he’s still standing up against the fence. Final 20 seconds now, and Diaz is still at it, hurting McGregor with a body blow and a knee to the face. McGregor is purely defensive here, but he’ll survive to see the fourth round.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 Diaz
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-8 Diaz
Mike Sloan scores the round 10-9 Diaz
Round 4
Diaz opens the fourth round with a body shot; McGregor gets him back with a few hard leg kicks. Diaz is pawing at the blood running down his face, some of it into his right eye. It’s Diaz pressing forward, but McGregor is doing better work jabbing off his back foot in this frame. McGregor steps forward to land another stiff jab, now a leg kick that seems to sting Diaz, who hops away. Diaz shoots for a takedown at the fence, but McGregor stuffs it and peels away the American’s hands. Diaz switches to body shots, peppering both sides of McGregor’s ribcage with short punches. McGregor lands a short elbow in the clinch; Diaz gives him one in return and then goes back to holding McGregor against the wall. McGregor spins him around inside the final two minutes, then breaks away with a punching combo. A left hand from Diaz appears to wobble McGregor, but the featherweight ace responds with a punch of his own just seconds later. Body-head combination scores for McGregor, and Diaz looks to be fading here as rivers of blood continue to cover his face.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 McGregor
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 McGregor
Mike Sloan scores the round 10-9 McGregor
Round 5
Diaz walks forward and gets roughed up by a leaping knee, but he catches hold of McGregor and shoves him against the fence. McGregor reverses after 20 seconds and breaks away from the clinch, leaving Diaz with another punch to his grisly face. McGregor strolls away with his back turned, hands on his hips, and Diaz follows him to bring on another clinch. Diaz drops for yet another double-leg attempt, but McGregor blocks this one, too. Diaz switches to body shots, then slaps McGregor with a right hand. McGregor walks away with his hands on his hips again; Diaz walks after him and sticks out a middle finger. Diaz gets McGregor moving backward and leaning over, then tags him with a right hand. Now it’s a clinch from Diaz, pulling down McGregor’s head to tee him up for a knee which doesn’t materialize. Diaz scores with a knee to the body, tries another takedown and gets blocked by McGregor, who takes a look up at the clock and sees 90 seconds remaining. Diaz is doing good work in the clinch but he whiffs on a slashing elbow and allows McGregor to spin him around. McGregor hits a trip takedown, but Diaz is back on his feet seconds later. Down to the final half minute, Diaz continues to pepper with short punches in the tie-up. He finally trips McGregor to the ground with only moments to go, and Diaz closes out the fight with some ground-and-pound.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 Diaz (48-47 McGregor)
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Diaz (47-47 Draw)
Mike Sloan scores the round 10-9 Diaz (48-47 McGregor)
The Official Result
Conor McGregor def. Nate Diaz via Majority Decision (48-47, 48-47, 47-47) R5 5:00
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 103 of 301 | 34% | 104 of 303 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 153 of 300 | 51% | 157 of 304 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 30 of 94 | 31% | 30 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 21 of 66 | 31% | 21 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 37 of 99 | 37% | 37 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 69 of 124 | 55% | 69 of 124 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 36 of 108 | 33% | 37 of 110 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 63 of 110 | 57% | 67 of 114 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Diaz | 103 of 301 | 34% | 44 of 185 | 28 of 69 | 31 of 47 | 103 of 300 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 153 of 300 | 51% | 135 of 273 | 7 of 13 | 11 of 14 | 148 of 295 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Diaz | 30 of 94 | 31% | 5 of 45 | 10 of 28 | 15 of 21 | 30 of 94 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 21 of 66 | 31% | 17 of 58 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 21 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nate Diaz | 37 of 99 | 37% | 18 of 61 | 10 of 23 | 9 of 15 | 37 of 98 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 69 of 124 | 55% | 64 of 118 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 67 of 122 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nate Diaz | 36 of 108 | 33% | 21 of 79 | 8 of 18 | 7 of 11 | 36 of 108 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 63 of 110 | 57% | 54 of 97 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 60 of 107 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 77 of 119 | 64% | 129 of 175 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 7:47 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 13 of 104 | 12% | 51 of 145 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 25 of 49 | 51% | 36 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:41 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 9 of 61 | 14% | 14 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 30 of 42 | 71% | 34 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:44 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 4 of 39 | 10% | 10 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 22 of 28 | 78% | 59 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:22 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 27 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 77 of 119 | 64% | 46 of 81 | 5 of 9 | 26 of 29 | 37 of 66 | 1 of 2 | 39 of 51 |
| Nate Diaz | 13 of 104 | 12% | 12 of 98 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 12 of 103 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 25 of 49 | 51% | 13 of 32 | 2 of 5 | 10 of 12 | 16 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 14 |
| Nate Diaz | 9 of 61 | 14% | 8 of 55 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 30 of 42 | 71% | 13 of 23 | 3 of 4 | 14 of 15 | 19 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 11 |
| Nate Diaz | 4 of 39 | 10% | 4 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rafael dos Anjos | 22 of 28 | 78% | 20 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 26 |
| Nate Diaz | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
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