UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Saint Preux · Aug 16, 2014 · Women's Bantamweight · Completed
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Age 45
Height 5' 6"
Reach 66.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 42
Height 5' 5"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Sara McMann
2.26 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
1.92 SApM
47.0% Str. Def.
4.38 TD Avg
65.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Lauren Murphy
3.94 SLpM
38.0% Str. Acc.
5.19 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
1.09 TD Avg
24.0% TD Acc.
67.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Sara McMann - Fight History
WIN vs Karol Rosa
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · Mar 26, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sara McMann 0 24 of 41 58% 73 of 100 4 of 6 66% 0 0 10:27
Karol Rosa 0 26 of 43 60% 92 of 120 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sara McMann 0 10 of 15 66% 31 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:44
Karol Rosa 0 7 of 11 63% 31 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Sara McMann 0 5 of 13 38% 7 of 15 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:45
Karol Rosa 0 6 of 12 50% 9 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:00
3 Sara McMann 0 9 of 13 69% 35 of 48 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:58
Karol Rosa 0 13 of 20 65% 52 of 67 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:56
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sara McMann 24 of 41 58% 15 of 28 6 of 8 3 of 5 7 of 21 7 of 8 10 of 12
Karol Rosa 26 of 43 60% 20 of 36 4 of 4 2 of 3 13 of 25 7 of 7 6 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sara McMann 10 of 15 66% 8 of 11 2 of 3 0 of 1 4 of 8 0 of 0 6 of 7
Karol Rosa 7 of 11 63% 5 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 2 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Sara McMann 5 of 13 38% 1 of 7 4 of 5 0 of 1 3 of 10 2 of 3 0 of 0
Karol Rosa 6 of 12 50% 3 of 9 3 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 8 1 of 1 3 of 3
3 Sara McMann 9 of 13 69% 6 of 10 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 3 5 of 5 4 of 5
Karol Rosa 13 of 20 65% 12 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 1 4 of 6 6 of 6 3 of 8
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sara McMann vs. Karol Rosa

Round 1
Once an undefeated title challenger, now at the age of 41 having lost three of her last four, McMann (12-6, 6-6 UFC) will be fighting now to keep her UFC record above the .500 mark when she takes on surging Brazilian Rosa (15-3, 4-0 UFC). The Octagon ranger for this bantamweight battle and preliminary headliner will be Chad Trukovich, and the two ladies show nothing but respect as they touch ‘em up first. McMann takes the center of the cage and starts off with a kick to the knee, and she wades forward with a pair of punches to the midsection. The two are tentative to engage with much else, as Rosa swings and misses with a pair of punches. The ladies whiff on punches, until McMann closes the distance and rips an uppercut up close. Rosa tries to reply, and McMann shoots through to hit a double and set the Brazilian on the canvas. Rosa looks to try to scramble and sweep her, but McMann uses this to nearly take her back and then place her flat on her back. McMann works with a few elbows in half guard, using heavy shoulder pressure to keep Rosa stuck without a way up. Rosa flails with strikes off her back, and McMann completely ignores them to isolate an arm and punch Rosa in the body repeatedly. McMann smothers her foe and smashes her in the face before isolating a wrist in search of a keylock. Rosa scrambles just enough to free her arm, but she is nowhere near getting off her back as the Olympian holds her down with ease. McMann grinds with elbows as she makes Rosa’s life miserable, posturing up every so often to land a few strikes before lowering herself down. McMann goes after another Americana briefly before letting it go to slash with a few elbows, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 McMann
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 McMann
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 McMann

Round 2
Rosa comes out of her corner to claim the center of the cage in Round 2, and she throws a high front kick that misses early. McMann bullies her way into a clinch, scoring a stern knee to the solar plexus, before Rosa pushes away and tries to gain space. McMann ducks a strike to throw three to the head and body. Rosa tries to counter, inaccurately doing so, and she takes a right hand to the body. The Brazilian fights off a single-leg takedown try, and as soon as McMann gets a hold of her, she elevates Rosa and tosses her down to the mat. From there, Rosa surrenders her back, with McMann getting both hooks in very quickly. Rosa looks to spin, but cannot, as McMann keeps wrist control. This position stalls out, with McMann easily holding dominant position but doing little else with it besides racking up riding time. Rosa is stuck and throws a few punches from behind her head, and McMann does not change her strategy one bit. The crowd begins to grow restless as McMann hangs on in back control, and McMann answers this by hooking up a body triangle. The Brazilian keeps a tight grip on her own wrists when McMann tries to isolate one in search of an armbar, and McMann throws her legs up in a full-throated effort for the armbar. Rosa winces as she is stuck in a very precarious position, and she stacks the Olympian up to protect herself from the greatest submission danger. McMann keeps that armbar locked down, and Rosa knees her in the side a few times while she remains in this predicament. Luckily for Rosa, she is able to keep her weight pressed on McMann to not succumb to the submission, but she can do little else until the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 McMann
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 McMann
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 McMann

Round 3
Rosa charges out of her corner like a woman possessed, jumping out with a flying knee and surprising McMann. The 41-year-old wrestler quickly gathers herself and shoots in for a double, where she successfully puts Rosa down to the mat. Rosa climbs back to her knees, and as she does, McMann hops on to her back to serve as a 135-pound backpack. McMann gets both of her hooks in when the Brazilian stands up, as McMann remains piggybacked on her. Rosa wriggles to shake McMann off of her, and as soon as McMann’s feet hit the ground, she throws Rosa down to the mat with emphasis. Rosa cannot get McMann off of her, even when she stands back up again, and an attempted mat return from McMann goes south. McMann gets flipped over to her back, and she starts frantically scrambling to push Rosa off of her. When Rosa is above her, McMann nails her with a few upkicks, until Rosa lowers herself back to the guard. Rosa stands back up again to try to pass to a better position, blocking the upkicks that come at her this time. Rosa gets on top and starts dropping down strikes wildly, only to get kicked off again. McMann starts to engage in a slugfest from her back, and Rosa once more stands and begins to kick at McMann’s legs. McMann replies with a few more upkicks, and she sits up quickly to grab hold of a single. Rosa defends by standing up with her back to the wall, and she begins to slam elbows in the side of McMann’s head. McMann may be stunned from these blows, and Rosa stops throwing them for some reason. This allows McMann to clear her head if she was hurt, and she hits a throw to put Rosa down to the mat. Rosa turns the corner and looks for her own takedown, but there is nothing there. The final bell sounds, and they hug it out and immediately begin to discuss some of the events that transpired in their 15 minutes of combat.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (29-28 McMann)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (29-26 McMann)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 McMann (30-27 McMann)

The Official Result
Sara McMann def. Karol Rosa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 20, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Sara McMann

Angelo picks Sara McMann as a big underdog, acknowledging it could be a sucker bet. He believes McMann's wrestling will be the difference, as Karol Rosa lacks the offensive BJJ to submit her or the power to knock her out. He notes Rosa's high striking volume and takedown defense but thinks McMann can push the wrestling pace and win.

"i'm going with the big underdog here ... i'm going sarah mcmahon"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Karol Rosa

Big Brady picks Karol Rosa to win by third-round KO. He expects McMann to have early success with her wrestling, winning the first round, but then fade due to her age (41) and poor cardio. He believes Rosa will weather the storm and finish McMann late. He notes that McMann has been submitted four times in the UFC, but here he predicts a KO. He suggests live betting McMann in the first round.

Karol Rosa wins by KO in round 3; live bet McMann in round 1
"I'm gonna take carol hosa for a late like second or third round finish against sarah mcmahon... I'll say a third round ko for carol hoza."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Karol Rosa

Cody picks Rosa, expecting McMann to get takedowns early but fade. He notes McMann's history of blowing leads and getting submitted. He thinks Rosa is active off her back and will take over as the fight goes on. He likes Rosa at -225 better than Grasso at the same price.

"i gotta say kyle rosa gets the job done but it's another wide line"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Karol Rosa

Daniel Levi picks Karol Rosa confidently, highlighting her incredible striking volume (over 100 significant strikes in multiple fights) and youth. He breaks down McMann's flaws: poor fight IQ, questionable durability, and tendency to fade. He notes Rosa has improved her submission defense since early losses and earned a black belt. He expects Rosa to break McMann down as the fight progresses, possibly finishing her. He parlayed Rosa with Khizriev at -108.

Rosa by TKO/KO in rounds 2-3, parlayed with Khizriev at -108
"I think carl jose breaks her down the stretch... I parlayed his riff and uh carl hosa and -108"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Sara McMann

The host picks McMann despite her age and gas tank issues, believing her wrestling and strength will be the difference. He notes Rosa's takedown defense hasn't been tested at UFC level and that McMann can grind out a decision. However, he admits he's not confident enough to bet it, calling it a 50/50 fight.

McMann by decision at +400; also mentions possibility of a draw or Rosa round 3 at +1000
"i'm gonna go mcmahon as my prediction i think she wins this fight via decision plus 400 is that line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Karol Rosa

Paul picks Rosa but is hesitant. He notes McMann's elite wrestling and early takedowns, but expects her to fade. He thinks Rosa can out-volume her on the feet and possibly submit her. He suggests live betting Rosa after round one if McMann tires.

live betting after round one
"i like rosa to win here but sarah mcmahon is an elite wrestler"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Karol Rosa

The MMA Guru picks Karol Rosa over Sara McMann, citing McMann's age (41) and inactivity since early 2021. He acknowledges McMann's grappling but believes Rosa is younger, more athletic, and technically sound, with a reach advantage. The Guru expects Rosa to control the fight against the cage and win a unanimous decision, as she doesn't leave herself out of position for takedowns.

"i'm gonna go with carol rosa over sarah mcmahon"
LOSS vs Julianna Peña
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 3:39 · UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 · Jan 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julianna Peña 0 38 of 76 50% 140 of 192 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:55
Sara McMann 0 21 of 54 38% 28 of 63 3 of 3 100% 0 0 7:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julianna Peña 0 5 of 20 25% 37 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sara McMann 0 12 of 30 40% 15 of 33 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:58
2 Julianna Peña 0 13 of 29 44% 70 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Sara McMann 0 8 of 17 47% 11 of 22 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:11
3 Julianna Peña 0 20 of 27 74% 33 of 42 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:47
Sara McMann 0 1 of 7 14% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julianna Peña 38 of 76 50% 27 of 65 11 of 11 0 of 0 20 of 57 10 of 10 8 of 9
Sara McMann 21 of 54 38% 10 of 39 7 of 10 4 of 5 12 of 43 6 of 6 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julianna Peña 5 of 20 25% 5 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sara McMann 12 of 30 40% 7 of 23 3 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 27 2 of 2 1 of 1
2 Julianna Peña 13 of 29 44% 7 of 23 6 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 23 6 of 6 0 of 0
Sara McMann 8 of 17 47% 3 of 10 3 of 4 2 of 3 2 of 9 4 of 4 2 of 4
3 Julianna Peña 20 of 27 74% 15 of 22 5 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 14 4 of 4 8 of 9
Sara McMann 1 of 7 14% 0 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sara McMann

Big Brady picks Sara McMann by decision, citing her wrestling advantage and Peña's poor takedown defense (28%). He notes McMann lands 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes with 60% accuracy. He expects McMann to control Peña on the ground for at least two rounds. He is not confident enough to bet but leans towards McMann.

"give me sarah mcmahon 29 28 maybe 30 27"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Sara McMann

Daniel Levi picks Sara McMann, highlighting her superior wrestling and power. He criticizes Julianna Peña's poor takedown defense (28%) and lack of submissions. Levi believes McMann can dominate with top control and avoid Peña's comeback attempts, as long as she stays focused for 15 minutes.

"i'll go with sarah just stay in it for 15 straight minutes keep your head on straight and you win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Sara McMann

McMann is the better wrestler and should be able to get takedowns and control Peña on the ground. Peña has poor takedown defense and her jiu-jitsu off her back is not great. However, McMann is 40 years old and has cardio issues, which is a concern. I think McMann grinds out a decision, but I'm not confident enough to bet on her.

"I'm going with Sara McMann to win this fight via decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Sara McMann

The MMA Guru picks Sara McMann to win by controlling Peña on the ground with top control. He criticizes Peña's submission game, noting she hasn't submitted anyone of note and has been submitted herself. He believes McMann's wrestling and top control will be effective, especially since women's fights are not stood up quickly. He predicts a 30-27 decision via ground control.

30-27 unanimous decision, ground control
"i'm going to go sarah mcmahon smushing her on the ground in half guard with top control the entire round landing total strikes winning herself to fight that way"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–26, 30–25) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. dos Santos · Jan 25, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sara McMann 0 38 of 50 76% 62 of 84 3 of 5 60% 1 0 13:22
Lina Länsberg 0 1 of 5 20% 36 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sara McMann 0 10 of 12 83% 22 of 25 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:29
Lina Länsberg 0 0 of 2 0% 6 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Sara McMann 0 10 of 16 62% 15 of 23 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:11
Lina Länsberg 0 1 of 2 50% 14 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Sara McMann 0 18 of 22 81% 25 of 36 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:42
Lina Länsberg 0 0 of 1 0% 16 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sara McMann 38 of 50 76% 22 of 32 15 of 17 1 of 1 1 of 8 1 of 1 36 of 41
Lina Länsberg 1 of 5 20% 0 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sara McMann 10 of 12 83% 0 of 2 9 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 10
Lina Länsberg 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Sara McMann 10 of 16 62% 4 of 8 6 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 11
Lina Länsberg 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sara McMann 18 of 22 81% 18 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 1 17 of 20
Lina Länsberg 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 24, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Lina Länsberg

Daniel picks Lina Länsberg for the upset, predicting that McMann will dominate the first round but then fade and get cut open by elbows in the second. He notes that McMann has a history of quitting and that Länsberg has improved her takedown defense. He expects a cut stoppage in the second round.

cut stoppage in the second round due to elbows
"I'm gonna take Lina in Landsberg for an upset"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 20, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Lina Länsberg

The MMA Guru picks Lina Länsberg based on recency and activity, noting Sara McMann is 49 years old and hasn't fought since 2018. He acknowledges the women's bantamweight division is mixed but believes Länsberg's recency and ability to hold McMann against the cage will be key.

"I'm going with the activity I'm going with the recency and I'm going with Lena Landsberg getting the job done"
LOSS vs Marion Reneau
Submission (triangle choke) R2 3:40 · UFC on Fox: Emmett vs. Stephens · Feb 24, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marion Reneau 0 9 of 49 18% 76 of 120 2 of 5 40% 0 0 5:10
Sara McMann 0 23 of 39 58% 37 of 55 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marion Reneau 0 3 of 14 21% 68 of 83 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:00
Sara McMann 0 2 of 3 66% 5 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marion Reneau 0 6 of 35 17% 8 of 37 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:10
Sara McMann 0 21 of 36 58% 32 of 48 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marion Reneau 9 of 49 18% 5 of 42 2 of 5 2 of 2 6 of 45 3 of 4 0 of 0
Sara McMann 23 of 39 58% 23 of 38 0 of 1 0 of 0 11 of 24 1 of 2 11 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marion Reneau 3 of 14 21% 2 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sara McMann 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Marion Reneau 6 of 35 17% 3 of 29 2 of 5 1 of 1 3 of 31 3 of 4 0 of 0
Sara McMann 21 of 36 58% 21 of 35 0 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 21 1 of 2 11 of 13
LOSS vs Ketlen Vieira
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 4:16 · UFC 215: Nunes vs. Shevchenko 2 · Sep 09, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ketlen Vieira 0 29 of 58 50% 36 of 67 1 of 5 20% 0 0 5:32
Sara McMann 0 17 of 21 80% 35 of 45 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ketlen Vieira 0 20 of 44 45% 26 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:07
Sara McMann 0 3 of 4 75% 12 of 15 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Ketlen Vieira 0 9 of 14 64% 10 of 16 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:25
Sara McMann 0 14 of 17 82% 23 of 30 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ketlen Vieira 29 of 58 50% 25 of 52 2 of 3 2 of 3 1 of 9 9 of 11 19 of 38
Sara McMann 17 of 21 80% 16 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 4 14 of 14 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ketlen Vieira 20 of 44 45% 19 of 42 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 4 1 of 2 19 of 38
Sara McMann 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3
2 Ketlen Vieira 9 of 14 64% 6 of 10 2 of 2 1 of 2 1 of 5 8 of 9 0 of 0
Sara McMann 14 of 17 82% 13 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 14 of 14 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sara McMann vs. Ketlen Vieira

Round 1
McMann swings a right hand at the body of Vieira, but it's only a cover for the wrestler to dive at Vieira and work for a takedown. Vieira stays standing, pressed against the cage by McMann with over-unders. One minute into the round, McMann completes the takedown and sets up in Vieira's closed guard. Vieira is looking to trap an arm, but McMann pulls herself free to slam the Brazilian with a heavy elbow to the face. More elbows fall on the grill of Vieira, who's still trying to creep up her guard to snare McMann in a submission attempt. The elbows of McMann have raised an enormous hematoma on the forehead of Vieira, but it's not stopping Vieira from hunting for a triangle. McMann ably defends the triangle setup and steps over to side control on Vieira's right side. McMann threatens with an arm-triangle choke, then releases and steps over to full mount. Vieira is dodging most of McMann's punches, and now she shrimps underneath to grab for a leg. Vieira finishes the round going for a kneebar, but McMann stays safe to see round two.

Sherdog Scores
Jordan Breen scores the round 10-9 McMann
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 McMann
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 McMann

Round 2
McMann tries to repeat her approach from round one, charging Vieira with her head down and using punches to set up a takedown. This time, Vieira is ready for it and plunks the wrestler with a right hand counter. McMann's next attempt yields a single-leg attempt against the fence, but Vieira defends well and drills the side of McMann's head with elbows and punches. McMann releases the leg in favor of holding Vieira against the wall; Vieira reverses to the outside, and now the bantamweights clinch in a neutral position on the fence. McMann digs an underhook and drives a hard knee into the body of Vieira. Suddenly, Vieira hits a trip takedown and comes down atop McMann in half guard. Now it's Vieira looking for an arm-triangle choke, and it looks like she may have it. McMann scoots her left side tight to the fence, but Vieira's squeeze from half guard is enough for force a tap from the American.

The Official Result
Ketlen Vieira def. Sara McMann via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) R2 4:16
WIN vs Gina Mazany
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R1 1:14 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne · Feb 19, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sara McMann 0 7 of 14 50% 7 of 14 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:02
Gina Mazany 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sara McMann 0 7 of 14 50% 7 of 14 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:02
Gina Mazany 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sara McMann 7 of 14 50% 6 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 9
Gina Mazany 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sara McMann 7 of 14 50% 6 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 9
Gina Mazany 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0
WIN vs Alexis Davis
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 2:52 · The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · Dec 03, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sara McMann 0 14 of 36 38% 25 of 47 2 of 2 100% 1 0 0:00
Alexis Davis 0 21 of 29 72% 55 of 66 0 of 0 --- 1 0 6:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sara McMann 0 12 of 30 40% 21 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:00
Alexis Davis 0 17 of 21 80% 51 of 58 0 of 0 --- 1 0 3:50
2 Sara McMann 0 2 of 6 33% 4 of 8 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:00
Alexis Davis 0 4 of 8 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sara McMann 14 of 36 38% 11 of 32 2 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 29 0 of 0 6 of 7
Alexis Davis 21 of 29 72% 17 of 25 1 of 1 3 of 3 11 of 19 0 of 0 10 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sara McMann 12 of 30 40% 10 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 23 0 of 0 6 of 7
Alexis Davis 17 of 21 80% 14 of 18 1 of 1 2 of 2 7 of 11 0 of 0 10 of 10
2 Sara McMann 2 of 6 33% 1 of 4 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexis Davis 4 of 8 50% 3 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Jessica Eye
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Garbrandt · May 29, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sara McMann 0 22 of 51 43% 56 of 88 2 of 5 40% 1 0 8:00
Jessica Eye 0 10 of 24 41% 19 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sara McMann 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:41
Jessica Eye 0 4 of 9 44% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Sara McMann 0 7 of 19 36% 19 of 32 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:27
Jessica Eye 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Sara McMann 0 5 of 8 62% 26 of 31 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:52
Jessica Eye 0 4 of 7 57% 12 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sara McMann 22 of 51 43% 8 of 34 12 of 15 2 of 2 3 of 29 11 of 13 8 of 9
Jessica Eye 10 of 24 41% 6 of 20 1 of 1 3 of 3 9 of 23 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sara McMann 10 of 24 41% 0 of 12 10 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 13 10 of 11 0 of 0
Jessica Eye 4 of 9 44% 3 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Sara McMann 7 of 19 36% 4 of 15 2 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 12 1 of 2 4 of 5
Jessica Eye 2 of 8 25% 1 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sara McMann 5 of 8 62% 4 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 4
Jessica Eye 4 of 7 57% 2 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 1
Lauren Murphy - Fight History
LOSS vs Eduarda Moura
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Jul 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lauren Murphy 0 38 of 145 26% 67 of 179 2 of 9 22% 2 0 1:03
Eduarda Moura 0 64 of 235 27% 74 of 248 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lauren Murphy 0 6 of 33 18% 13 of 41 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:03
Eduarda Moura 0 19 of 58 32% 26 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:32
2 Lauren Murphy 0 11 of 51 21% 27 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Eduarda Moura 0 20 of 77 25% 22 of 79 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:23
3 Lauren Murphy 0 21 of 61 34% 27 of 68 1 of 5 20% 2 0 0:59
Eduarda Moura 0 25 of 100 25% 26 of 101 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lauren Murphy 38 of 145 26% 38 of 144 0 of 0 0 of 1 34 of 140 4 of 5 0 of 0
Eduarda Moura 64 of 235 27% 52 of 221 1 of 2 11 of 12 64 of 234 0 of 0 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lauren Murphy 6 of 33 18% 6 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 1 6 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Eduarda Moura 19 of 58 32% 14 of 51 0 of 1 5 of 6 19 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Lauren Murphy 11 of 51 21% 11 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 47 3 of 4 0 of 0
Eduarda Moura 20 of 77 25% 17 of 74 0 of 0 3 of 3 20 of 77 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Lauren Murphy 21 of 61 34% 21 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0 20 of 60 1 of 1 0 of 0
Eduarda Moura 25 of 100 25% 21 of 96 1 of 1 3 of 3 25 of 100 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Eduarda Moura

Angelo believes Eduarda Moura is younger, faster, and a better grappler than the 41-year-old Lauren Murphy, who hasn't fought in two years. He thinks Murphy's toughness won't be enough against Moura's aggressive grappling and solid takedowns. He hates the -600 odds but thinks Moura wins 95% of the time and is okay to parlay.

Hates -600 odds but thinks Moura wins 95% of the time and is okay to parlay.
"Eduarda Mora is going to be the pick. I hate that she's minus 600."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 8, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Eduarda Moura

Big Brady is disgusted by the -600 line on Eduarda Moura. He notes Moura's poor cardio and low volume, and Lauren Murphy's 70% takedown defense. However, he picks Moura by decision because Murphy is 41, hasn't fought in 2.5 years, and this is her retirement fight. He is not confident in the line.

decision
"I'm going to pick more here to win by decision, but I just don't see in what world she looks anywhere minus 600."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Eduarda Moura

The host is hesitant about this pick, noting that he doesn't understand why Moura is such a heavy favorite. He acknowledges Moura's grappling strength but also points out that Murphy has a physicality and striking advantage and could make the fight close. Ultimately, he expects Moura to win bits and pieces of the fight and get her hand raised on the scorecards.

"Mora again, prohibitive favorite. I don't really understand why. Uh she might be strong enough in the grappling realm to really put it on the 42-year-old uh Lauren Murphy, who's also been out of the cage for 2 and 1/2 …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Eduarda Moura

The MMA Guru picks Eduarda Moura, citing her better grappling entries and fight IQ in knowing when to shoot for takedowns. He heavily criticizes Lauren Murphy's last performance against Jessica Andrade, where she took a record amount of damage and had no answer. He notes Murphy's long layoff and age, and expects Moura to outwrestle and outstrike her for a 30-27 decision.

decision win 30-27
"I'm going to go with Eduardo Mora over Lauren Murphy. Eduardo Mora... I think she's got better grappling entries and I think that's going to be the difference here."
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–25, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jéssica Andrade 0 100 of 293 34% 103 of 296 0 of 15 0% 0 0 0:09
Lauren Murphy 0 231 of 369 62% 237 of 375 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jéssica Andrade 0 22 of 91 24% 24 of 93 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:08
Lauren Murphy 0 61 of 107 57% 62 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jéssica Andrade 0 29 of 95 30% 29 of 95 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:01
Lauren Murphy 0 75 of 121 61% 78 of 124 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
3 Jéssica Andrade 0 49 of 107 45% 50 of 108 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Lauren Murphy 0 95 of 141 67% 97 of 143 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:50
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jéssica Andrade 100 of 293 34% 81 of 268 14 of 19 5 of 6 90 of 276 10 of 17 0 of 0
Lauren Murphy 231 of 369 62% 161 of 292 23 of 27 47 of 50 208 of 338 22 of 30 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jéssica Andrade 22 of 91 24% 17 of 85 5 of 5 0 of 1 22 of 90 0 of 1 0 of 0
Lauren Murphy 61 of 107 57% 31 of 75 3 of 3 27 of 29 58 of 101 3 of 6 0 of 0
2 Jéssica Andrade 29 of 95 30% 21 of 83 6 of 10 2 of 2 23 of 86 6 of 9 0 of 0
Lauren Murphy 75 of 121 61% 52 of 96 12 of 13 11 of 12 62 of 103 12 of 17 1 of 1
3 Jéssica Andrade 49 of 107 45% 43 of 100 3 of 4 3 of 3 45 of 100 4 of 7 0 of 0
Lauren Murphy 95 of 141 67% 78 of 121 8 of 11 9 of 9 88 of 134 7 of 7 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Big Brady picks Andrade with good confidence, noting she has only lost to the best (Valentina, Rose, Zhang, Weili). He is not high on Murphy, calling her lucky and noting she has lost fights that went her way. Andrade is younger, more powerful, has takedown upside, and will pressure with volume. He respects Murphy's toughness and durability, predicting a decision win for Andrade, but won't lay -450.

decision
"I will pick andraj with some pretty pretty good confidence and I'll say she does win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Cody picks Jéssica Andrade confidently, expecting her to smash Lauren Murphy. He notes Andrade's power, aggression, strength, and well-rounded skills. He says Murphy is scrappy but not on Andrade's level, and that Andrade will either finish via guillotine or win a brawl. He warns about women's MMA and big favorites, but thinks Andrade's skill advantage is clear. He also mentions Andrade's cardio is not half bad.

considering Andrade inside the distance at +200; mentions Andrade's guillotine choke
"I think Jessica Andrade should absolutely smash I'm surprised it's jazera fair and still in the organization"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Connor picks Andrade, noting that Murphy is glacially slow and Andrade is much faster and harder hitting. He thinks Andrade's physicality will be too much, even if she can't overpower Murphy in the clinch. Connor also points out that good athletes can take Murphy down, and Andrade is a good athlete.

Connor mentions the odds but does not place a bet.
"Andrade is way faster and way harder hitting. I'm still going to pick Andrade."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Paul picks Jéssica Andrade but with some hesitation. He notes Andrade's power, aggression, and strength, and says Murphy's best version still struggles with Andrade's worst. He mentions Murphy's durability and cardio but thinks Andrade's skill set is superior. He warns about women's MMA and big favorites, and says there is a world where Andrade gets tired. He thinks Andrade wins but wouldn't put a huge bet on her.

mentions Andrade's guillotine choke; says Murphy's durability is a concern
"Jessica and Josh has just got Lauren Murphy Pete everywhere if the fight stays standing Murphy's got that Scrappy striking style which will she'll stand in the pocket and exchange with you it's like Jessica's gonna drive to someone you …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

The Guru confidently picks Andrade, saying she 'throws punches like a man' and has finished top competition like Chookagian, Calvillo, and Lemos in the first round. He criticizes Murphy's fighting ability, calling her 'fighting blind.' Despite Murphy doing better against Shevchenko on paper, the Guru sees a clear difference in performance and predicts Andrade will KO Murphy.

KO
"I'm going with Jessica and Raj getting the KO win over Lauren Murphy I don't see Murphy winning this one at all"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Zane picks Andrade but with hesitation. He notes Andrade has made wrong moves lately, regressing to a cautious style, but her physicality, speed, and power should be enough against the slower Murphy. Zane worries about Andrade's approach and Murphy's strength and durability, but believes Andrade is more likely to finish.

Andrade opened at -500, now -491; Murphy opened at +385, now +367. Zane advises staying away from betting on this fight.
"I'm still going to pick Andrade because if one of them's going to finish this fight it's going to be her."
WIN vs Miesha Tate
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lauren Murphy 0 102 of 184 55% 128 of 211 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:18
Miesha Tate 0 85 of 164 51% 121 of 201 0 of 7 0% 0 0 2:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lauren Murphy 0 26 of 48 54% 35 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:32
Miesha Tate 0 25 of 47 53% 38 of 60 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:04
2 Lauren Murphy 0 38 of 66 57% 53 of 82 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:41
Miesha Tate 0 32 of 55 58% 46 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:00
3 Lauren Murphy 0 38 of 70 54% 40 of 72 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:05
Miesha Tate 0 28 of 62 45% 37 of 72 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lauren Murphy 102 of 184 55% 77 of 154 24 of 29 1 of 1 68 of 142 31 of 39 3 of 3
Miesha Tate 85 of 164 51% 61 of 122 18 of 34 6 of 8 67 of 138 18 of 26 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lauren Murphy 26 of 48 54% 17 of 37 9 of 11 0 of 0 15 of 33 11 of 15 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 25 of 47 53% 12 of 26 10 of 18 3 of 3 16 of 34 9 of 13 0 of 0
2 Lauren Murphy 38 of 66 57% 31 of 57 6 of 8 1 of 1 26 of 52 9 of 11 3 of 3
Miesha Tate 32 of 55 58% 27 of 44 4 of 9 1 of 2 25 of 46 7 of 9 0 of 0
3 Lauren Murphy 38 of 70 54% 29 of 60 9 of 10 0 of 0 27 of 57 11 of 13 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 28 of 62 45% 22 of 52 4 of 7 2 of 3 26 of 58 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Angelo picks Miesha Tate but is hesitant due to her flyweight debut. He believes Tate's wrestling and grappling will be key, and that she can avoid being bullied by Murphy. He notes Murphy's losses came via grappling dominance, and assumes Tate will be strong at 125. He is unsure about betting.

unsure about betting
"so i'm gonna go with misha tate here anybody complaining that she's a little old she's 35 she's a younger fighter in this matchup so misha tate one big brother and i think she's gonna win this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Big Brady picks Miesha Tate to win by decision. He notes that Tate is the more skilled fighter overall and can get takedowns to control the fight on the mat. He is not impressed by Murphy's wins and thinks the striking will be competitive. He says he would not bet Tate at -220 odds but picks her to win.

decision win; odds comment: minus 220 too high
"i'll take misha tate but minus 220. there's no way i would touch that but gimishita misha tate bye decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Cody picks Tate, citing her wrestling advantage, strength, and experience. He notes that Tate has been preparing for this fight for a long time and has been in great shape. He believes Tate's clinch work and takedowns will be too much for Murphy, and that Murphy's only path is to bully Tate, which he doubts she can do.

"i gotta go with cupcake tate i know that you haven't eight minus one five"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Daniel Levi leans Miesha Tate but expresses disinterest in the fight. He notes Tate is past her prime and coming off a loss, while Murphy is coming off a title fight loss and has health issues. He considers it a dog-or-pass situation and won't lay the -220 price on Tate.

dog-or-pass; not laying the chalk
"i'll say it's dog or pass at the betting window you know with a price like that i'll lean misha tate"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

Paul leans towards Murphy as an underdog, citing the uncertainty of Tate's weight cut to 125 and the fact that Murphy is a natural 125er. He notes that Murphy has decent striking and could potentially outwork Tate. However, he admits he is not confident and will wait until weigh-ins before betting.

"i think it's a very very clear dogger pass lauren murphy for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate over Lauren Murphy, criticizing Murphy's lack of skill and Tate's experience. He believes Tate will win grappling exchanges and has slightly better striking. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Tate, with Tate winning the first two rounds clearly before slowing down due to weight cut.

"i'm gonna go with misha tate here lauren murphy has no idea what she's doing she's terrible at fighting"
TKO (elbows and punches) R4 4:00 · UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Sep 25, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Valentina Shevchenko 0 98 of 170 57% 132 of 204 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:04
Lauren Murphy 0 11 of 91 12% 19 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Valentina Shevchenko 0 20 of 39 51% 24 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:22
Lauren Murphy 0 3 of 24 12% 3 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Valentina Shevchenko 0 10 of 17 58% 30 of 37 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:13
Lauren Murphy 0 1 of 18 5% 8 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:41
3 Valentina Shevchenko 0 21 of 48 43% 25 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Lauren Murphy 0 5 of 30 16% 6 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Valentina Shevchenko 0 47 of 66 71% 53 of 72 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:12
Lauren Murphy 0 2 of 19 10% 2 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Valentina Shevchenko 98 of 170 57% 62 of 126 19 of 24 17 of 20 72 of 137 6 of 8 20 of 25
Lauren Murphy 11 of 91 12% 4 of 73 3 of 13 4 of 5 11 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Valentina Shevchenko 20 of 39 51% 9 of 24 5 of 7 6 of 8 19 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lauren Murphy 3 of 24 12% 2 of 21 0 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Valentina Shevchenko 10 of 17 58% 6 of 13 3 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 3
Lauren Murphy 1 of 18 5% 1 of 15 0 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Valentina Shevchenko 21 of 48 43% 9 of 33 6 of 8 6 of 7 20 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lauren Murphy 5 of 30 16% 0 of 23 2 of 4 3 of 3 5 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Valentina Shevchenko 47 of 66 71% 38 of 56 5 of 6 4 of 4 25 of 38 4 of 6 18 of 22
Lauren Murphy 2 of 19 10% 1 of 14 1 of 4 0 of 1 2 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Angelo picks Shevchenko, calling her one of the best fighters ever. He highlights her technical striking, grappling, and championship composure. He notes that Murphy's path to victory is narrow and that Shevchenko can win anywhere. Angelo expects a dominant performance.

Angelo suggests less less on Monkey Knife Fight, expecting a finish in round three. He also mentions betting on Shevchenko by stoppage in each round to guarantee profit.
"Valentina will go down as one of the best to ever do it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Big Brady picks Valentina Shevchenko to win by fourth-round TKO. He believes Shevchenko has every advantage: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He notes Murphy is tough and has never been finished, but she has never faced anyone near Shevchenko's caliber. He expects Shevchenko to find a finish late in the fight.

fourth round tko
"i'm going to take valenciano to finish lauren murphy"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Cody is confident Shevchenko wins anywhere the fight goes, citing her superior kickboxing, speed, footwork, and grappling. He notes Murphy's durability and never being knocked out, but believes Shevchenko's patience and skill will lead to a late stoppage, possibly becoming the first to finish Murphy. He leans over 2.5 rounds due to Murphy's toughness.

over 2.5 rounds (-120), Shevchenko inside the distance
"i think we're all on the same page that she's going to win the fight she can win this fight anywhere she chooses to"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Daniel Levi confidently picks Valentina Shevchenko, stating that Lauren Murphy's toughness and durability are not enough to overcome the massive skill gap. He notes that Murphy has never been finished, but Shevchenko's technique is superior. Levi believes it would take a fluke for Murphy to win, and he expects Shevchenko to win, though he is unsure whether it will be by decision or finish.

"give me valentina i guess the big question is inside the distance or by decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Jacob picks Shevchenko, noting she's running out of opponents and should fight Nunes again. He praises her judo and grappling. Jacob is confident Shevchenko wins easily.

Jacob agrees with less less on Monkey Knife Fight. He mentions knockout Kings and might include Shevchenko.
"Chevy's gonna win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2021 (fight day)
Valentina Shevchenko

The host picks Valentina Shevchenko by fourth-round TKO. He believes Shevchenko will eventually set up the crucifix position and finish Murphy. He notes that Murphy is durable and may survive early, but Shevchenko's pressure will increase. He likes the over 2.5 rounds at even money. He thinks Murphy's takedown success will be temporary and Shevchenko will adapt.

Over 2.5 rounds at +100; round 4 prop for Shevchenko
"i'm gonna go with chevchenko and i'm gonna call it fourth round tko"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Paul picks Shevchenko confidently, noting her dominance and the large talent gap. He mentions she could finish inside the distance but also acknowledges she can be patient. He is unsure about betting the moneyline due to the price and considers the over 2.5 rounds, but has no bet yet.

over 2.5 rounds (considering)
"breaking news shevchenko is my pick um i think she wins inside the distance"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

The MMA Guru picks Valentina Shevchenko over Lauren Murphy, citing Shevchenko's vast superiority in all areas. He notes that Murphy is on a five-fight winning streak but lost her last two fights (split decisions) and is 38 years old. He expects Shevchenko to win by second-round crucifix TKO, similar to her fight against Andrade, as Murphy will likely shoot for a takedown and get reversed. He dismisses Murphy's chances entirely.

second round crucifix tko
"second round crucifix tko just like the andraj fight"
WIN vs Joanne Wood
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · Jun 12, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lauren Murphy 0 80 of 148 54% 121 of 195 1 of 6 16% 0 0 4:54
Joanne Wood 0 123 of 228 53% 153 of 259 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lauren Murphy 0 29 of 57 50% 40 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:39
Joanne Wood 0 55 of 97 56% 64 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Lauren Murphy 0 16 of 22 72% 43 of 54 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:15
Joanne Wood 0 9 of 17 52% 26 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Lauren Murphy 0 35 of 69 50% 38 of 72 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Joanne Wood 0 59 of 114 51% 63 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lauren Murphy 80 of 148 54% 66 of 131 14 of 17 0 of 0 55 of 119 10 of 13 15 of 16
Joanne Wood 123 of 228 53% 62 of 137 30 of 41 31 of 50 99 of 201 23 of 25 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lauren Murphy 29 of 57 50% 25 of 51 4 of 6 0 of 0 26 of 52 3 of 5 0 of 0
Joanne Wood 55 of 97 56% 22 of 50 16 of 22 17 of 25 43 of 85 12 of 12 0 of 0
2 Lauren Murphy 16 of 22 72% 14 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 16
Joanne Wood 9 of 17 52% 4 of 9 1 of 3 4 of 5 8 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 2
3 Lauren Murphy 35 of 69 50% 27 of 60 8 of 9 0 of 0 28 of 61 7 of 8 0 of 0
Joanne Wood 59 of 114 51% 36 of 78 13 of 16 10 of 20 48 of 101 11 of 13 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 8, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

Big Brady picks Joanne Wood, citing her significant striking volume and accuracy advantage. He is concerned about Wood's takedown defense (58%) and the possibility of Murphy grinding out rounds with control time. He expects a competitive fight but ultimately sees Wood out-striking Murphy to a decision win.

Wood by decision
"i will ultimately take jojo calderwood to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

Cody leans towards Murphy as an underdog, citing her strength, grit, and takedown ability. He thinks she can grind out a decision if she mixes in takedowns. He notes Calderwood's tendency to fall apart in big spots and her poor takedown defense.

"lauren murphy plus 130 is where i would attack this"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jun 10, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

Daniel Levi picks Lauren Murphy for the upset, citing her toughness and will to win. He acknowledges Joanne Wood is more talented but inconsistent. He notes Murphy's takedowns have improved and that Wood has a history of poor performances. He expects a close fight and thinks Murphy's durability and pressure will edge out a split decision.

split decision
"i'll go with lauren murphy for the upset"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2021 (fight day)
Joanne Wood

Wood is faster and a better striker, with superior Muay Thai and combinations. Murphy is stronger and may try to clinch, but Wood should outstrike her at range. Murphy doesn't take damage well, and Wood's speed should allow her to land cleanly. Wood likely wins a decision, though Murphy's strength is a slight concern.

Wood by decision
"I do like Joanne Wood again I think she's a little bit better all around... I do have some solid confidence in Joanne Wood to go out there and outstrike Lauren Murphy for the majority of 15 minutes and take …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

Paul picks Calderwood but is not betting it. He thinks Calderwood's striking and reach advantage will be key, and that she can keep the fight standing and outpoint Murphy. He acknowledges Murphy's toughness but believes Calderwood's technical skills will prevail.

"the official pick is going to be joanne calderwood but from a betting perspective i think i'm just looking to pass"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

The MMA Guru picks Joanne Wood, stating she looks technically sound with good knees in the clinch, while Murphy does not look good technically. He notes Wood's recent performance against Jessica Eye and believes Wood's technical edge will be decisive. He dismisses Murphy's wins as unimpressive.

"i'm going with joanne calderwood i've watched the pair of them fight"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 3:31 · UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Oct 24, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lauren Murphy 0 22 of 85 25% 32 of 96 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:10
Liliya Shakirova 0 23 of 75 30% 27 of 80 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lauren Murphy 0 12 of 48 25% 18 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Liliya Shakirova 0 15 of 47 31% 16 of 48 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:29
2 Lauren Murphy 0 10 of 37 27% 14 of 42 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:05
Liliya Shakirova 0 8 of 28 28% 11 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lauren Murphy 22 of 85 25% 16 of 78 6 of 7 0 of 0 12 of 72 8 of 11 2 of 2
Liliya Shakirova 23 of 75 30% 7 of 45 7 of 17 9 of 13 23 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lauren Murphy 12 of 48 25% 10 of 46 2 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 41 5 of 7 0 of 0
Liliya Shakirova 15 of 47 31% 4 of 27 6 of 12 5 of 8 15 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Lauren Murphy 10 of 37 27% 6 of 32 4 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 31 3 of 4 2 of 2
Liliya Shakirova 8 of 28 28% 3 of 18 1 of 5 4 of 5 8 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 20, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

Big Brady picks Lauren Murphy but is hesitant due to the unpredictability of women's MMA. He notes Murphy's experience against better competition and good takedown defense, but acknowledges Shakirova looks decent on tape. He predicts a decision win.

decision
"give me laura murphy by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Lauren Murphy

Daniel Levi picks Lauren Murphy confidently, noting her transformation under a new doctor and her recent knockout wins. He believes Shakirova is a talented newcomer but is outclassed and outsized, and that Murphy's pressure and clinch work will be too much. He expects a unanimous decision or a TKO stoppage.

Most likely unanimous decision but a TKO stoppage wouldn't surprise
"i'm gonna go with lord murphy most likely unanimous decision but a tko stoppage somewhere along the way won't surprise me either"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 19, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

The host picks Lauren Murphy but is not confident, citing her experience, volume, and physicality. He notes that Shakirova is making her UFC debut on short notice and may struggle with the step up in competition. He sees value on Shakirova if she is a big dog.

Murphy by decision
"i'm going murphy here uh not the most confident in it either"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

The MMA Guru picks Lauren Murphy to win, noting that Shakirova is taking the fight on short notice and has lost to a fighter with a 4-4 record. He respects Murphy's technical fighting style and believes she will get the job done.

"i'm gonna go with lauren murphy getting it done mostly because lilia shakira... is taking it on short notice"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Volkov · Jun 20, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lauren Murphy 0 44 of 174 25% 71 of 206 0 of 1 0% 0 1 4:08
Roxanne Modafferi 0 72 of 158 45% 92 of 178 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lauren Murphy 0 12 of 54 22% 18 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:14
Roxanne Modafferi 0 19 of 48 39% 22 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Lauren Murphy 0 10 of 45 22% 20 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:44
Roxanne Modafferi 0 23 of 48 47% 36 of 61 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:35
3 Lauren Murphy 0 22 of 75 29% 33 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:10
Roxanne Modafferi 0 30 of 62 48% 34 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lauren Murphy 44 of 174 25% 34 of 152 5 of 15 5 of 7 39 of 163 5 of 11 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 72 of 158 45% 46 of 127 8 of 12 18 of 19 65 of 150 3 of 3 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lauren Murphy 12 of 54 22% 9 of 46 1 of 5 2 of 3 11 of 51 1 of 3 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 19 of 48 39% 11 of 36 0 of 4 8 of 8 19 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Lauren Murphy 10 of 45 22% 8 of 37 2 of 7 0 of 1 9 of 41 1 of 4 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 23 of 48 47% 13 of 37 5 of 5 5 of 6 18 of 42 3 of 3 2 of 3
3 Lauren Murphy 22 of 75 29% 17 of 69 2 of 3 3 of 3 19 of 71 3 of 4 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 30 of 62 48% 22 of 54 3 of 3 5 of 5 28 of 60 0 of 0 2 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 17, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

Big Brady favors Lauren Murphy to win by decision, believing she can stuff Roxanne Modafferi's takedowns and out-strike her on the feet. He notes Murphy's strong takedown defense and ability to get back up if taken down. He acknowledges Modafferi's recent wins as an underdog but thinks Murphy is the better striker and will land more shots.

odds: Modafferi minus 120, Murphy plus 100; pick by decision
"I do favor Murphy to win here I think she's going to be able to stuff the takedowns of Roxanne"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

Daniel Levi picks Lauren Murphy, arguing that Modafferi is one-dimensional and relies on takedowns. He believes Murphy's improved aggression and takedown defense will be key. Levi notes that Murphy looked great against Andrea Lee and should be a slight favorite, not an underdog. He expects a close decision win for Murphy.

"My pick will be Lauren Murphy in this spot as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Roxanne Modafferi

Modafferi has better grappling and a reach advantage. She was winning against Barber before the injury. Murphy hasn't shown much. Modafferi will win by decision.

"I'm gonna go over rocks and mowed a ferry here the odds are really close and I don't understand why... motor ferry gets it done by decision"
WIN vs Andrea Lee
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · Feb 08, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lauren Murphy 0 80 of 197 40% 107 of 228 2 of 4 50% 0 1 2:31
Andrea Lee 0 104 of 267 38% 107 of 271 0 of 3 0% 1 0 0:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lauren Murphy 0 32 of 80 40% 33 of 82 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
Andrea Lee 0 43 of 104 41% 44 of 106 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
2 Lauren Murphy 0 33 of 73 45% 41 of 84 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:22
Andrea Lee 0 38 of 103 36% 39 of 104 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Lauren Murphy 0 15 of 44 34% 33 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:40
Andrea Lee 0 23 of 60 38% 24 of 61 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lauren Murphy 80 of 197 40% 70 of 181 9 of 15 1 of 1 75 of 190 5 of 7 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 104 of 267 38% 51 of 194 34 of 51 19 of 22 99 of 261 4 of 5 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lauren Murphy 32 of 80 40% 28 of 74 4 of 6 0 of 0 31 of 77 1 of 3 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 43 of 104 41% 18 of 74 16 of 20 9 of 10 41 of 101 1 of 2 1 of 1
2 Lauren Murphy 33 of 73 45% 30 of 68 2 of 4 1 of 1 31 of 71 2 of 2 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 38 of 103 36% 21 of 77 11 of 20 6 of 6 38 of 103 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Lauren Murphy 15 of 44 34% 12 of 39 3 of 5 0 of 0 13 of 42 2 of 2 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 23 of 60 38% 12 of 43 7 of 11 4 of 6 20 of 57 3 of 3 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Andrea Lee

Daniel Levi picks Andrea Lee by decision, stating she is the better striker with more volume. He notes that Lauren Murphy has improved but still has a basic fighting style. He warns against betting at -365, but expects Lee to win a decision, possibly with close rounds.

I ain't laying -365 to find out
"I'm gonna go with Andrea Lee by decision but I would be very careful at the betting window"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

The host picks Andrea Lee by decision, citing her speed, striking, and improved grappling. He believes she is the quicker fighter and can outpoint Lauren Murphy, though he is not willing to bet her straight at -340. He considers her as a parlay piece with Jon Jones.

Lee by decision, considered as parlay piece with Jones
"I like and really here I think that she you know how to strike Lauren Murphy take it to the ground if she needs to I think if she does get caught up against the fence she'll have a decent …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

The MMA Guru picks Andrea Lee because she is younger, more technical, and will light up Lauren Murphy with combinations on the feet. He notes Murphy's questionable losses and expects Lee to win a unanimous decision.

unanimous decision win
"I'm gonna go with and really both girls similar-sized Laura Murphy a bit chunkier I feel like this fight is gonna take place on the feet and really younger in the game a little bit more technical I think she's …"