Career Averages - Robbie Lawler
Career Averages - Matt Brown
Robbie Lawler - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Lawler | 1 | 8 of 10 | 80% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robbie Lawler | 1 | 8 of 10 | 80% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Lawler | 8 of 10 | 80% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Niko Price | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robbie Lawler | 8 of 10 | 80% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Niko Price | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Price but is hesitant, calling it a tricky betting spot. He notes Price is younger and less beat up, with similar wild style to Lawler. Lawler is declining and likely to retire. He expects a fun slugfest but is unsure about a finish, and fears the round line might be a trap. He does not place a bet.
Big Brady leans towards Robbie Lawler to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Niko Price has looked bad lately, taking damage and battling injuries, while Lawler still has power and showed life against Brian Barbarena. He believes both will stand and bang, and Lawler lands first. He is surprised by the line (Price -260) and thinks Lawler is very live. He mentions that Price blocks punches with his face and has been knocked out recently.
Cody picks Price but doesn't like the -260 price. He thinks Lawler is past his prime and has been finished recently. He considers the under 2.5 rounds as a better bet, expecting a finish. He notes both fighters have trained together at ATT, which could affect the fight.
Connor picks Niko Price because Robbie Lawler's style is not built for an aging fighter; his reliance on being in the pocket and taking risks is no longer sustainable. Price is a chaotic puncher who can absorb damage and keep coming, and Lawler's decline in durability and cardio makes him vulnerable. Connor notes that Lawler could try to be more methodical but ultimately the other shoe has dropped.
Daniel Levi picks Price, citing his youth and improved volume in recent fights. He notes that Lawler, at 41, is a step slower and has shown a tendency to fade in fights. Levi acknowledges that either fighter could get finished, but believes Price's higher output will allow him to pull away down the stretch. He also mentions that Price has shown good grappling defense and attacks from bottom, which could be a factor if Lawler takes him down. Levi expresses a desire to see Lawler win in his retirement fight but is not counting on it.
James picks Niko Price to win by knockout. He believes Lawler is washed, citing his performance against Nick Diaz where he was touched up. He trusts Price's durability and power more than Lawler's at this stage. He does not advocate betting Price at -260 moneyline, but likes the knockout prop. He notes Price has been finished before but thinks he will get the KO.
Price has youth, speed, and power advantages, and can outwork Lawler late. Lawler still has technical striking and power early, but his durability and pace are questionable. The fight likely ends in a knockout, with Price finishing Lawler in the later rounds. The fight doesn't go to decision is the favorite prop.
Paul picks Price, acknowledging Lawler's legendary career but noting he is 41 and not the same fighter. He thinks Price's volume will be too much. He mentions Lawler's recent losses and that he has been fighting for decades. He says he would feel happy if Lawler wins but his bank account prefers Price.
The MMA Guru picks Niko Price to win by KO in the third round. He believes Lawler has lost his pain tolerance and finishing ability, while Price storms forward in later rounds. He cites Price's performances against Michael Pereira and Luke Jumeau as evidence of his late-round pressure, and notes the age and reach advantage for Price.
Zane picks Niko Price because Robbie Lawler's style is built on narrow margins and he is declining in durability, cardio, and vision. Price is a messy but powerful puncher who can absorb punishment and land a wild shot as Lawler slows down. Zane notes that Lawler could look good early but will likely get caught, and he hopes Lawler wins but cannot pick him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Barberena | 0 | 81 of 141 | 57% | 81 of 141 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 147 of 316 | 46% | 148 of 317 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryan Barberena | 0 | 39 of 65 | 60% | 39 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 67 of 171 | 39% | 68 of 172 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Bryan Barberena | 0 | 42 of 76 | 55% | 42 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 80 of 145 | 55% | 80 of 145 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Barberena | 81 of 141 | 57% | 65 of 124 | 15 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 78 of 137 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Robbie Lawler | 147 of 316 | 46% | 116 of 280 | 18 of 20 | 13 of 16 | 138 of 304 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryan Barberena | 39 of 65 | 60% | 27 of 53 | 12 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 38 of 63 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Robbie Lawler | 67 of 171 | 39% | 46 of 148 | 12 of 13 | 9 of 10 | 64 of 166 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Bryan Barberena | 42 of 76 | 55% | 38 of 71 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 40 of 74 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Robbie Lawler | 80 of 145 | 55% | 70 of 132 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 74 of 138 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Barberena, emphasizing his forward pressure, volume, and durability. He notes that Lawler is declining and didn't look great against Nick Diaz. Barberena's high strike output (186 vs Matt Brown, 195 vs Vicente Luque) is seen as the difference-maker.
Big Brady hesitantly picks Bryan Barberena, citing his youth and volume, but admits neither fighter looks great. He notes Lawler's recent win over Nick Diaz was his first in years, and Barberena has taken damage. He expects a close decision and advises against betting.
Cody thinks Lawler's power and experience will be too much for Barberena, who has shown poor wrestling defense and bad decision-making. He expects Lawler to mix in takedowns and win a gritty fight.
Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Bryan Barberena as the underdog, citing that Lawler is 40 years old and may not have the same ferocity. He notes that Barberena can still dig deep and throw high output, while Lawler has recently resorted to old habits like shadowboxing. Levi acknowledges that Lawler could win if the old 'Ruthless' version shows up, but he sees it as a dog-or-pass situation and prefers the underdog price.
This is a great stylistic matchup for Lawler; Barberena will stand and trade. Lawler's power and experience should prevail. The only concern is Lawler's age (40), but his power is the last thing to go. Lawler by decision or KO is likely.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting Lawler's significant strikes over 73.5 on PrizePicks is a good play. He expects a brawl and thinks Lawler will get the job done.
The MMA Guru picks Bryan Barberena, arguing that Robbie Lawler has declined significantly, losing power and explosiveness due to age and accumulated damage. He believes Barberena will outwork Lawler with body shots and volume, predicting a 30-27 or 30-26 decision with a possible 10-8 round. He notes Lawler's recent performances have been weak and that Barberena has momentum.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 150 of 339 | 44% | 150 of 339 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nick Diaz | 0 | 131 of 221 | 59% | 131 of 221 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robbie Lawler | 0 | 71 of 176 | 40% | 71 of 176 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nick Diaz | 0 | 57 of 107 | 53% | 57 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Robbie Lawler | 0 | 73 of 145 | 50% | 73 of 145 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nick Diaz | 0 | 64 of 98 | 65% | 64 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Robbie Lawler | 0 | 6 of 18 | 33% | 6 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nick Diaz | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Lawler | 150 of 339 | 44% | 114 of 294 | 36 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 144 of 331 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Nick Diaz | 131 of 221 | 59% | 88 of 176 | 33 of 35 | 10 of 10 | 99 of 182 | 31 of 38 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robbie Lawler | 71 of 176 | 40% | 54 of 155 | 17 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 70 of 174 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Nick Diaz | 57 of 107 | 53% | 35 of 84 | 15 of 16 | 7 of 7 | 43 of 90 | 14 of 17 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Robbie Lawler | 73 of 145 | 50% | 58 of 126 | 15 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 68 of 139 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Nick Diaz | 64 of 98 | 65% | 47 of 80 | 15 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 47 of 77 | 17 of 21 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Robbie Lawler | 6 of 18 | 33% | 2 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nick Diaz | 10 of 16 | 62% | 6 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Diaz, defying logic. He argues that Lawler has taken years of damage in wars, while Diaz has had five years off to heal. Angelo believes Diaz's high volume and chin will be key, and he expects Diaz to overwhelm Lawler with strikes.
Big Brady picks Robbie Lawler to win, but with very low confidence. He notes that Lawler has been more active, while Diaz hasn't fought in 6.5 years and hasn't won in 9.5 years. He admits there are too many unknowns to bet this fight and is picking Lawler simply because he's the more active fighter.
Cody picks Lawler, citing Diaz's long layoff, lack of recent wins, party lifestyle, and questionable training. He notes Lawler has been consistently training and competing against top competition. He also mentions Diaz's poor timing in recent sparring footage and the weight advantage Diaz may have, but still favors Lawler's activity and wrestling.
Daniel Levi leans toward Nick Diaz, citing Robbie Lawler's decline since the Carlos Condit fight. He notes Lawler has lost to Ben Askren and Colby Covington, and his spirit seems diminished. Levi believes if Diaz doesn't fall over early, his volume and cardio in a five-round fight will be too much for Lawler. However, he acknowledges the uncertainty around Diaz's long layoff and conditioning, making this a low-confidence pick.
Jacob picks Lawler, citing his recent activity and that he hasn't been finished in his losses. He thinks Lawler will look sharper and that Diaz may struggle early after the layoff. Jacob doesn't love the pick but leans Lawler.
The host leans towards Nick Diaz by fourth-round TKO. He believes Diaz's durability and pace will be key in a five-round fight. He expects Diaz to weather Lawler's early storm and then put it on him later. He notes that both fighters have question marks and advises against betting this fight, but likes the over 2.5 rounds. He thinks Diaz's legendary chin will hold up.
Paul picks Lawler, acknowledging the uncertainty around Diaz's form and motivation. He notes Diaz hasn't won in 10 years and looked poor against Anderson Silva. He expects Lawler to be in shape and possibly use wrestling. He is interested in the weigh-ins for clues.
The MMA Guru picks Robbie Lawler over Nick Diaz, despite acknowledging the possibility of a Diaz win. He cites Diaz's six-year layoff and questionable lifestyle, while Lawler has been active and trains daily. He expects Lawler to come out explosive and finish Diaz by first-round TKO, possibly with calf kicks. He notes that Lawler sees this as a retirement opportunity and will be motivated. He also mentions that Diaz's boxing-heavy style leaves him vulnerable to leg kicks.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 0 | 26 of 45 | 57% | 41 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:33 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 62 of 88 | 70% | 116 of 144 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 8:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 0 | 8 of 8 | 100% | 12 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:35 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 11 of 11 | 100% | 40 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 | |
| 2 | Neil Magny | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 9 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 16 of 21 | 76% | 32 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:25 | |
| 3 | Neil Magny | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 20 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 35 of 56 | 62% | 44 of 65 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 26 of 45 | 57% | 18 of 36 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 33 | 6 of 6 | 5 of 6 |
| Robbie Lawler | 62 of 88 | 70% | 36 of 61 | 21 of 22 | 5 of 5 | 39 of 63 | 16 of 18 | 7 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 8 of 8 | 100% | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Robbie Lawler | 11 of 11 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 9 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 6 | |
| 2 | Neil Magny | 7 of 14 | 50% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 |
| Robbie Lawler | 16 of 21 | 76% | 12 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 15 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Neil Magny | 11 of 23 | 47% | 7 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Robbie Lawler | 35 of 56 | 62% | 23 of 43 | 9 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 26 of 45 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Magny, believing Lawler is on the back end of his career and hesitant to throw. He thinks Magny will use his length and reach to pick Lawler apart from range and win a decision. He notes Lawler's only path to victory is a knockout, but doubts Lawler still has that power.
Daniel Levi picks Robbie Lawler at plus money, arguing that Lawler's level of competition has been much higher than Magny's recent opponents. He believes Lawler will crack Magny with hard shots in the first round, possibly getting a knockout, and that Magny's cardio advantage may only show in the third round. He acknowledges the risk of Lawler being past his prime but sees value in the underdog line.
Magny has good cardio, reach, and a clinch game that can stifle Lawler. Lawler is on a three-fight skid and has been out over a year; his form is uncertain. Magny should grind out a decision, but the -235 line is too high given Lawler's potential if he shows up with a leg-kick-heavy game plan.
The host picks Neil Magny, stating that Lawler's only chance is an early KO, but Lawler hasn't had a KO finish on the feet since Jake Ellenberger. He believes Magny will outrange Lawler with jabs, front kicks, and leg kicks, and that Lawler is injury-prone. He considers Magny a safe bet.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colby Covington | 0 | 179 of 515 | 34% | 201 of 541 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 8:42 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 78 of 167 | 46% | 82 of 171 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colby Covington | 0 | 13 of 29 | 44% | 24 of 41 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 3:57 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 4 of 18 | 22% | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Colby Covington | 0 | 33 of 105 | 31% | 36 of 108 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Colby Covington | 0 | 41 of 117 | 35% | 43 of 122 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 23 of 48 | 47% | 25 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Colby Covington | 0 | 51 of 130 | 39% | 56 of 135 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:27 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 23 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Colby Covington | 0 | 41 of 134 | 30% | 42 of 135 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 23 of 52 | 44% | 23 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colby Covington | 179 of 515 | 34% | 128 of 454 | 20 of 28 | 31 of 33 | 154 of 477 | 25 of 38 | 0 of 0 |
| Robbie Lawler | 78 of 167 | 46% | 61 of 144 | 10 of 16 | 7 of 7 | 66 of 152 | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colby Covington | 13 of 29 | 44% | 10 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 21 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Robbie Lawler | 4 of 18 | 22% | 2 of 12 | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Colby Covington | 33 of 105 | 31% | 26 of 96 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 28 of 98 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Robbie Lawler | 6 of 7 | 85% | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Colby Covington | 41 of 117 | 35% | 24 of 96 | 5 of 8 | 12 of 13 | 36 of 108 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Robbie Lawler | 23 of 48 | 47% | 17 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 44 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Colby Covington | 51 of 130 | 39% | 38 of 115 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 9 | 44 of 121 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Robbie Lawler | 22 of 42 | 52% | 19 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 35 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Colby Covington | 41 of 134 | 30% | 30 of 121 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 38 of 129 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Robbie Lawler | 23 of 52 | 44% | 19 of 46 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Askren | 0 | 26 of 29 | 89% | 30 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:59 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Askren | 0 | 26 of 29 | 89% | 30 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:59 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Askren | 26 of 29 | 89% | 21 of 24 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 9 | 16 of 18 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Askren | 26 of 29 | 89% | 21 of 24 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 9 | 16 of 18 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 86 of 212 | 40% | 137 of 267 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:24 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 172 of 291 | 59% | 219 of 343 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 7:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 14 of 40 | 35% | 18 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 19 of 49 | 38% | 31 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 34 of 74 | 45% | 36 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 58 of 97 | 59% | 60 of 99 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 3 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 16 of 26 | 61% | 29 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:13 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 19 of 28 | 67% | 40 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:12 | |
| 4 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 11 of 40 | 27% | 18 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 39 of 63 | 61% | 44 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 | |
| 5 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 11 of 32 | 34% | 36 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 37 of 54 | 68% | 44 of 61 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 86 of 212 | 40% | 53 of 171 | 32 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 48 of 159 | 38 of 53 | 0 of 0 |
| Robbie Lawler | 172 of 291 | 59% | 100 of 199 | 48 of 64 | 24 of 28 | 104 of 203 | 58 of 78 | 10 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 14 of 40 | 35% | 6 of 28 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 29 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Robbie Lawler | 19 of 49 | 38% | 2 of 25 | 9 of 15 | 8 of 9 | 10 of 35 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 34 of 74 | 45% | 23 of 61 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 61 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Robbie Lawler | 58 of 97 | 59% | 39 of 73 | 13 of 16 | 6 of 8 | 51 of 88 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rafael dos Anjos | 16 of 26 | 61% | 4 of 12 | 12 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 15 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Robbie Lawler | 19 of 28 | 67% | 15 of 19 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 7 | 6 of 11 | 10 of 10 | |
| 4 | Rafael dos Anjos | 11 of 40 | 27% | 10 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 35 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Robbie Lawler | 39 of 63 | 61% | 24 of 46 | 10 of 11 | 5 of 6 | 23 of 44 | 16 of 19 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Rafael dos Anjos | 11 of 32 | 34% | 10 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 26 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Robbie Lawler | 37 of 54 | 68% | 20 of 36 | 13 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 29 | 20 of 25 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Lawler | 0 | 77 of 156 | 49% | 85 of 164 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Donald Cerrone | 0 | 82 of 166 | 49% | 99 of 185 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robbie Lawler | 0 | 37 of 57 | 64% | 42 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Donald Cerrone | 0 | 15 of 25 | 60% | 28 of 38 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 | |
| 2 | Robbie Lawler | 0 | 9 of 23 | 39% | 9 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Donald Cerrone | 0 | 29 of 69 | 42% | 31 of 73 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Robbie Lawler | 0 | 31 of 76 | 40% | 34 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Donald Cerrone | 0 | 38 of 72 | 52% | 40 of 74 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Lawler | 77 of 156 | 49% | 47 of 116 | 28 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 35 of 101 | 42 of 55 | 0 of 0 |
| Donald Cerrone | 82 of 166 | 49% | 50 of 127 | 26 of 32 | 6 of 7 | 56 of 125 | 25 of 40 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robbie Lawler | 37 of 57 | 64% | 24 of 42 | 12 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 17 | 31 of 40 | 0 of 0 |
| Donald Cerrone | 15 of 25 | 60% | 3 of 12 | 11 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 15 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Robbie Lawler | 9 of 23 | 39% | 4 of 15 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Donald Cerrone | 29 of 69 | 42% | 18 of 54 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 26 of 60 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Robbie Lawler | 31 of 76 | 40% | 19 of 59 | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 61 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Donald Cerrone | 38 of 72 | 52% | 29 of 61 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 50 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 |
Matt Brown - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Brown | 1 | 11 of 15 | 73% | 22 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 8 of 31 | 25% | 17 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Brown | 1 | 11 of 15 | 73% | 22 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 8 of 31 | 25% | 17 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Brown | 11 of 15 | 73% | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Court McGee | 8 of 31 | 25% | 2 of 21 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Brown | 11 of 15 | 73% | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Court McGee | 8 of 31 | 25% | 2 of 21 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Matt Brown, saying he thinks Brown will be the more durable of the two. He notes Court McGee is coming off a bad knockout loss and his chin is a question. He acknowledges the line movement tracker shows McGee went from +140 to -180 favorite, and that trend has been 7-1, but he goes against it. He is not betting on this fight.
Big Brady picks Court McGee but expresses distrust after McGee's fight against Condit where he didn't attempt a single takedown. He believes if McGee uses the right game plan—wrestling and taking down Matt Brown—he should win easily. Brady notes Brown is 42 with poor takedown defense and cardio, and McGee has better cardio and wrestling. He predicts a third-round submission, but says he can't fully trust McGee after the Condit fight.
Cody picks McGee, citing his better gas tank and durability. He notes that Brown's chin and reflexes have declined with age, and that McGee's kickboxing is good enough to compete. He expects McGee to wrestle and control the fight, especially in later rounds. He mentions the 'died and came back' theory for cardio.
Connor leans toward Court McGee, acknowledging that Matt Brown could knock him out early but that McGee's durability and pace are likely to carry him. He notes that Brown's endurance has declined and that McGee's grinding style is antithetical to Brown's current capabilities. Connor expects McGee to win by decision, as Brown's recent fights show he fades.
Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown, admitting bias as he will attend the fight and is a fan. He believes Brown is historically the better fighter, having reached number five in the welterweight rankings, while McGee never cracked the top 15. However, he acknowledges Brown's age (42) and cardio issues, which could allow McGee to push the pace and mix in takedowns. Levi hopes Brown gets a knockout to tie the UFC record, but notes the pick is not based on a betting edge.
McGee has a cardio and pace advantage over the aging Brown. He will tie Brown up, use footwork to avoid big shots, and weaponize his cardio to take over in the later rounds. Brown has slowed down in recent fights and his wrestling may not be effective against McGee. McGee will grind out a decision victory.
Paul picks McGee, emphasizing his wrestling and cardio advantage. He notes that McGee can make the fight easy by sticking to takedowns and controlling Brown. He added McGee to a chalk parlay. He acknowledges the possibility of a 'gentleman's agreement' striking affair but believes McGee's grappling is the key.
The MMA Guru picks Matt Brown, citing his better recent performances and the fact that Court McGee is coming off a brutal KO loss. He believes Brown's toughness and aggression will be too much, predicting a KO in the second or third round.
Zane picks Court McGee because he believes McGee's pace and grinding style will overwhelm Matt Brown, who fades as fights progress. He notes that Brown is still dangerous early but lacks the endurance to keep up with McGee's constant pressure and wrestling. Zane expects McGee to win a decision, as Brown's recent losses show he slows down significantly.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Barberena | 0 | 81 of 129 | 62% | 95 of 145 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 5:01 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 111 of 211 | 52% | 186 of 289 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryan Barberena | 0 | 23 of 37 | 62% | 25 of 39 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 23 of 51 | 45% | 62 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 2 | Bryan Barberena | 0 | 23 of 36 | 63% | 29 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 35 of 60 | 58% | 59 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:30 | |
| 3 | Bryan Barberena | 0 | 35 of 56 | 62% | 41 of 63 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 53 of 100 | 53% | 65 of 113 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Barberena | 81 of 129 | 62% | 36 of 75 | 38 of 44 | 7 of 10 | 51 of 95 | 24 of 28 | 6 of 6 |
| Matt Brown | 111 of 211 | 52% | 82 of 170 | 12 of 18 | 17 of 23 | 78 of 164 | 28 of 42 | 5 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryan Barberena | 23 of 37 | 62% | 8 of 21 | 12 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 22 | 11 of 12 | 3 of 3 |
| Matt Brown | 23 of 51 | 45% | 13 of 36 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 11 | 19 of 46 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Bryan Barberena | 23 of 36 | 63% | 9 of 20 | 12 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 29 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Brown | 35 of 60 | 58% | 26 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 10 | 23 of 45 | 7 of 10 | 5 of 5 | |
| 3 | Bryan Barberena | 35 of 56 | 62% | 19 of 34 | 14 of 18 | 2 of 4 | 25 of 44 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 3 |
| Matt Brown | 53 of 100 | 53% | 43 of 87 | 8 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 36 of 73 | 17 of 27 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Bryan Barberena, citing his durability, impressive volume, and forward pressure. He notes Barberena landed 108 strikes in his last fight and 169 against Vicente Luque. He thinks Barberena's constant volume will be the difference and expects a decision win. He says he probably won't bet on this fight.
Big Brady picks Matt Brown to knock out Bryan Barberena in the first or second round. He believes Barberena is washed after the Luke fight, citing poor takedown defense and being dropped twice by Jason Witt. He notes that Brown still has power, as shown in his last fight against Lima, and that Barberena's chin is no longer reliable. Brady also mentions that Barberena has health issues and has been taken down frequently in recent fights.
Cody strongly favors Matt Brown, highlighting Barberena's declining durability and poor takedown defense. He notes Barberena's recent wars and losses, while Brown still has power and timing. He thinks Brown can win by KO or decision. He calls it his first bet of the week.
Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown, admitting he is biased as a fan. He believes Brown is the better fighter with more finishing ability and can mix in takedowns. He notes both fighters are on the decline but thinks Brown's power and hometown crowd will carry him. He is hesitant because of Brown's age and chin, and Barberena's durability. He also points out Barberena hasn't looked the same since the Luque fight.
The host picks Barberena, noting his youth, body punching (30% of strikes to body), and Matt Brown's known body vulnerability. He expects a striking battle and believes Barberena will get a knockout, possibly in round 3 as Brown slows down. He also likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision'.
Paul picks Matt Brown, citing his wrestling advantage and Barberena's inability to stop takedowns. He notes Brown's hometown crowd and experience. He thinks Brown can grind out a win or land a big shot. He expects the line to move and hopes for plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Matt Brown by second-round TKO over Bryan Barberena. He envisions Barberena slightly edging the first round before getting caught with a big overhand. The Guru trusts Brown's power and recent resurgence, noting his second-round finish of Diego Lima, while Barberena's wars may leave him vulnerable.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Brown | 1 | 27 of 49 | 55% | 30 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Dhiego Lima | 0 | 23 of 54 | 42% | 23 of 54 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Brown | 0 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dhiego Lima | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 12 of 32 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Matt Brown | 1 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 15 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Dhiego Lima | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 11 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Brown | 27 of 49 | 55% | 12 of 27 | 11 of 17 | 4 of 5 | 22 of 44 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Dhiego Lima | 23 of 54 | 42% | 8 of 38 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 12 | 22 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Brown | 15 of 30 | 50% | 8 of 18 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dhiego Lima | 12 of 32 | 37% | 2 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 9 | 11 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Matt Brown | 12 of 19 | 63% | 4 of 9 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Dhiego Lima | 11 of 22 | 50% | 6 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Matt Brown as an underdog, citing Lima's brother's recent loss as a potential emotional distraction. He thinks Brown's toughness, power, and underrated wrestling could be factors. He is not confident and has no bets on the fight, but likes the over on strikes for both.
Big Brady picks the younger Lima, citing Brown's age (40) and 13 finished losses. He thinks Lima's leg kicks and youth will lead to a finish, but acknowledges Brown could knock Lima out. He recommends staying away from betting.
Cody picks Lima but is hesitant, noting Lima's questionable chin and recent split decisions. He acknowledges Matt Brown's early power but believes Brown's cardio and speed have declined. Cody thinks Lima's calf kicks and jab will allow him to pull away in later rounds, but he is not confident enough to bet.
Daniel Levi picks Dhiego Lima, citing youth and freshness. He notes that Matt Brown is 40 years old and his durability is declining, as seen in the Miguel Baeza fight where he was knocked out by punches for the first time. He believes Lima's calf kicks and left hook will be effective, and that he can either finish or win a decision. He respects Brown but thinks the age and recent performances favor Lima.
Jacob picks Dhiego Lima, expecting him to chew up Brown's legs with kicks and out-strike him. He thinks Brown's age and lack of volume will be issues. He has Lima in his lineup at $9,000 and believes Lima will dominate without a finish.
The host picks Dhiego Lima by decision, citing his calf kicks and striking advantage. He notes Lima's cardio issues in his last fight but believes he can implement a similar game plan to the Miguel Baeza fight, where calf kicks debilitated Brown. He thinks Lima can get in and out of exchanges and slow Brown down. He is not highly confident but sees Lima as the better fighter against the 40-year-old Brown, who may be on a three-fight skid.
Paul picks Lima, citing Lima's youth and striking advantage. He notes Brown's age (40) and declining cardio, and believes Lima can win by decision or late finish. Paul also bets under 2.5 rounds, expecting a finish either way.
The MMA Guru picks Dhiego Lima to win by first-round TKO via lead hook. He believes Matt Brown has taken too much damage and will rush in with his hands down, allowing Lima to land a check hook similar to the one Miguel Baeza landed on Brown. He references Lima's previous lead hook KO of Chad Laprise and expects Lima to finish Brown at the end of the first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 39 of 88 | 44% | 157 of 209 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 4:52 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 28 of 37 | 75% | 37 of 52 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 6:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Condit | 0 | 6 of 22 | 27% | 60 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:23 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 15 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:36 | |
| 2 | Carlos Condit | 0 | 21 of 44 | 47% | 58 of 83 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:25 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 11 of 15 | 73% | 12 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 | |
| 3 | Carlos Condit | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 39 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 8 of 8 | 100% | 10 of 13 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:53 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Condit | 39 of 88 | 44% | 30 of 73 | 4 of 8 | 5 of 7 | 22 of 68 | 5 of 5 | 12 of 15 |
| Matt Brown | 28 of 37 | 75% | 13 of 22 | 11 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 18 | 8 of 8 | 9 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Condit | 6 of 22 | 27% | 3 of 16 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Matt Brown | 9 of 14 | 64% | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | |
| 2 | Carlos Condit | 21 of 44 | 47% | 17 of 38 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 14 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 |
| Matt Brown | 11 of 15 | 73% | 3 of 7 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carlos Condit | 12 of 22 | 54% | 10 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
| Matt Brown | 8 of 8 | 100% | 4 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 |
Big Brady picks Carlos Condit to win inside the distance, specifically by second-round knockout. He notes Condit's 90% finish rate and that he has never been knocked out, while Brown has been knocked out three times and is weak to the body. He believes Brown's durability is not what it once was and that Condit can finish him. He also mentions that Brown has been submitted 10 times, but Condit's path is via knockout.
Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown as a slight underdog, calling it a 50-55 fight. He notes Condit's last win over Court McGee was unimpressive, while Brown has knockout power and a history of finishing fights. He expects Condit to try to point-fight, but Brown's pressure and body shots could be key. He admits low confidence.
Matt Brown's pressure style is a bad matchup for Condit, who struggles when opponents stay in his face and take away his space. Brown will push forward, use dirty boxing, and grind Condit against the cage. Condit's takedown defense is poor and he often relies on his back, but Brown is not a submission threat. Condit's best chance is on the feet with kicks, but Brown's durability and pressure should earn him a decision. The line should be closer to even, so plus money on Brown is value.
The MMA Guru picks Carlos Condit over Matt Brown, citing Condit's superior chin and striking. He notes Brown is losing his chin and coming off a TKO loss, while Condit has never been knocked out. He predicts Condit will win by third-round TKO once Brown gasses. He also mentions Condit's historical robbery against Robbie Lawler.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 33 of 61 | 54% | 33 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Matt Brown | 2 | 37 of 73 | 50% | 42 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miguel Baeza | 0 | 33 of 59 | 55% | 33 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Matt Brown | 1 | 32 of 65 | 49% | 37 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 2 | Miguel Baeza | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matt Brown | 1 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Baeza | 33 of 61 | 54% | 25 of 51 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 44 | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Brown | 37 of 73 | 50% | 21 of 54 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 12 | 29 of 62 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miguel Baeza | 33 of 59 | 55% | 25 of 49 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 42 | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Brown | 32 of 65 | 49% | 17 of 48 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 11 | 25 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 7 | |
| 2 | Miguel Baeza | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Brown | 5 of 8 | 62% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Big Brady picks Miguel Baeza by first-round knockout, but is hesitant. He notes that Baeza's leg kicks are a huge factor and that Brown is dangerous on the feet and has a path to victory via takedowns. He compares the fight to the Askarov vs. Kelleher fight where an undefeated fighter got knocked out. He does not agree with Baeza being a -175 favorite and thinks the line should be closer.
Daniel Levi slightly leans with Matt Brown. He acknowledges that Miguel Baeza is super talented and could blow Brown out with a liver kick, but he thinks Brown will drag him into deep waters and drown him. He notes that Brown has historically been weak to the body but has been fighting with his hands down lately. He sees this as a good lesson for Baeza regardless.
The host picks Matt Brown, believing his veteran experience and pressure against the cage will overwhelm the undefeated Baeza. He thinks Baeza has not faced adversity and will struggle when things don't go his way. He predicts a TKO finish in the second or third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Brown | 0 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 40 of 59 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 7:34 |
| Ben Saunders | 0 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 38 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 4 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Brown | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 10 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:08 |
| Ben Saunders | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 14 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 4 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Matt Brown | 0 | 25 of 37 | 67% | 30 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:26 |
| Ben Saunders | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 24 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Brown | 30 of 47 | 63% | 27 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 25 |
| Ben Saunders | 12 of 23 | 52% | 10 of 17 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Brown | 5 of 10 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Ben Saunders | 9 of 14 | 64% | 9 of 12 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 | |
| 2 | Matt Brown | 25 of 37 | 67% | 23 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 21 |
| Ben Saunders | 3 of 9 | 33% | 1 of 5 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Brown | 1 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 20 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Diego Sanchez | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 13 of 21 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Brown | 1 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 20 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Diego Sanchez | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 13 of 21 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Brown | 18 of 34 | 52% | 14 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 28 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Sanchez | 12 of 20 | 60% | 7 of 12 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Brown | 18 of 34 | 52% | 14 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 28 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Sanchez | 12 of 20 | 60% | 7 of 12 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Cerrone | 2 | 63 of 147 | 42% | 64 of 148 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Matt Brown | 1 | 70 of 128 | 54% | 73 of 131 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donald Cerrone | 0 | 34 of 72 | 47% | 35 of 73 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 27 of 63 | 42% | 29 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Donald Cerrone | 1 | 25 of 70 | 35% | 25 of 70 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Matt Brown | 1 | 41 of 60 | 68% | 42 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 3 | Donald Cerrone | 1 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Cerrone | 63 of 147 | 42% | 46 of 126 | 7 of 11 | 10 of 10 | 62 of 143 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Brown | 70 of 128 | 54% | 42 of 91 | 28 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 62 of 118 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donald Cerrone | 34 of 72 | 47% | 24 of 60 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 34 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Brown | 27 of 63 | 42% | 15 of 45 | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 60 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Donald Cerrone | 25 of 70 | 35% | 19 of 62 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 24 of 66 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Brown | 41 of 60 | 68% | 26 of 43 | 15 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 35 of 53 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Donald Cerrone | 4 of 5 | 80% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Brown | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
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