UFC on Fox: Lawler vs. Brown · Jul 26, 2014 · Catchweight (172.5 lb) · Completed
UFC on Fox: Lawler vs. Brown Next Fight
Age 44
Height 5' 11"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 45
Height 6' 0"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Robbie Lawler
3.85 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
4.67 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
0.65 TD Avg
64.0% TD Acc.
65.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Matt Brown
3.76 SLpM
55.0% Str. Acc.
2.92 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
1.68 TD Avg
46.0% TD Acc.
63.0% TD Def.
1.3 Sub. Avg
Robbie Lawler - Fight History
WIN vs Niko Price
KO (punches) R1 0:38 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robbie Lawler 1 8 of 10 80% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Niko Price 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robbie Lawler 1 8 of 10 80% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Niko Price 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robbie Lawler 8 of 10 80% 8 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 6 4 of 4 0 of 0
Niko Price 2 of 7 28% 0 of 3 1 of 2 1 of 2 1 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robbie Lawler 8 of 10 80% 8 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 6 4 of 4 0 of 0
Niko Price 2 of 7 28% 0 of 3 1 of 2 1 of 2 1 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Niko Price

Angelo picks Price but is hesitant, calling it a tricky betting spot. He notes Price is younger and less beat up, with similar wild style to Lawler. Lawler is declining and likely to retire. He expects a fun slugfest but is unsure about a finish, and fears the round line might be a trap. He does not place a bet.

No bet, unsure about finish
"Nico price is going to be the pick here he has had some of the biggest line movement on this card"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Robbie Lawler

Big Brady leans towards Robbie Lawler to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Niko Price has looked bad lately, taking damage and battling injuries, while Lawler still has power and showed life against Brian Barbarena. He believes both will stand and bang, and Lawler lands first. He is surprised by the line (Price -260) and thinks Lawler is very live. He mentions that Price blocks punches with his face and has been knocked out recently.

second round knockout
"I'm gonna take Robbie Lawler to get it done I'm gonna take him to win this fight by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Cody picks Price but doesn't like the -260 price. He thinks Lawler is past his prime and has been finished recently. He considers the under 2.5 rounds as a better bet, expecting a finish. He notes both fighters have trained together at ATT, which could affect the fight.

Under 2.5 rounds (-155 to -160), Price by KO/TKO
"Nico price should be the favorites minus 260 is is definitely not getting my my money but he will be my pick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Connor picks Niko Price because Robbie Lawler's style is not built for an aging fighter; his reliance on being in the pocket and taking risks is no longer sustainable. Price is a chaotic puncher who can absorb damage and keep coming, and Lawler's decline in durability and cardio makes him vulnerable. Connor notes that Lawler could try to be more methodical but ultimately the other shoe has dropped.

Same odds commentary as Zane; Connor agrees with the betting line.
"I'm not going to pick him either. At this point, the problems are so compounding for Lawler."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Daniel Levi picks Price, citing his youth and improved volume in recent fights. He notes that Lawler, at 41, is a step slower and has shown a tendency to fade in fights. Levi acknowledges that either fighter could get finished, but believes Price's higher output will allow him to pull away down the stretch. He also mentions that Price has shown good grappling defense and attacks from bottom, which could be a factor if Lawler takes him down. Levi expresses a desire to see Lawler win in his retirement fight but is not counting on it.

"I kind of leaned towards Nico besides the youth is what I was talking about these last few fights he's been putting up more output."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Niko Price

James picks Niko Price to win by knockout. He believes Lawler is washed, citing his performance against Nick Diaz where he was touched up. He trusts Price's durability and power more than Lawler's at this stage. He does not advocate betting Price at -260 moneyline, but likes the knockout prop. He notes Price has been finished before but thinks he will get the KO.

Niko Price wins by KO
"I air on the side that Nico price knocks out Robbie Lawler"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Price has youth, speed, and power advantages, and can outwork Lawler late. Lawler still has technical striking and power early, but his durability and pace are questionable. The fight likely ends in a knockout, with Price finishing Lawler in the later rounds. The fight doesn't go to decision is the favorite prop.

fight doesn't go to decision
"give me a fight doesn't go to the decision as my favorite prop for this fight favorite prediction for this fight but I'm gonna go with the younger fighter here and Nicole price to get his hand raised by TKO."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Paul picks Price, acknowledging Lawler's legendary career but noting he is 41 and not the same fighter. He thinks Price's volume will be too much. He mentions Lawler's recent losses and that he has been fighting for decades. He says he would feel happy if Lawler wins but his bank account prefers Price.

Under 2.5 rounds
"I gotta go with Nico price and if Robbie was a spring want to knock him out like inside my heart I'd feel happy the bank account not the match"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Niko Price

The MMA Guru picks Niko Price to win by KO in the third round. He believes Lawler has lost his pain tolerance and finishing ability, while Price storms forward in later rounds. He cites Price's performances against Michael Pereira and Luke Jumeau as evidence of his late-round pressure, and notes the age and reach advantage for Price.

wins by KO in the third round
"we're gonna see Nico price get a KO win in the third round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Zane picks Niko Price because Robbie Lawler's style is built on narrow margins and he is declining in durability, cardio, and vision. Price is a messy but powerful puncher who can absorb punishment and land a wild shot as Lawler slows down. Zane notes that Lawler could look good early but will likely get caught, and he hopes Lawler wins but cannot pick him.

Lawler opened at +218, currently +221; Price opened at -252, currently -256. Zane says 'you just got to assume everybody should be betting on Niko Price here.'
"I'm going to pick Niko Price and I'm going to feel terrible about it."
LOSS vs Bryan Barberena
TKO (punches) R2 4:47 · UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · Jul 02, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bryan Barberena 0 81 of 141 57% 81 of 141 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robbie Lawler 0 147 of 316 46% 148 of 317 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bryan Barberena 0 39 of 65 60% 39 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robbie Lawler 0 67 of 171 39% 68 of 172 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bryan Barberena 0 42 of 76 55% 42 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robbie Lawler 0 80 of 145 55% 80 of 145 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bryan Barberena 81 of 141 57% 65 of 124 15 of 16 1 of 1 78 of 137 3 of 4 0 of 0
Robbie Lawler 147 of 316 46% 116 of 280 18 of 20 13 of 16 138 of 304 9 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bryan Barberena 39 of 65 60% 27 of 53 12 of 12 0 of 0 38 of 63 1 of 2 0 of 0
Robbie Lawler 67 of 171 39% 46 of 148 12 of 13 9 of 10 64 of 166 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Bryan Barberena 42 of 76 55% 38 of 71 3 of 4 1 of 1 40 of 74 2 of 2 0 of 0
Robbie Lawler 80 of 145 55% 70 of 132 6 of 7 4 of 6 74 of 138 6 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Bryan Barberena

Angelo picks Barberena, emphasizing his forward pressure, volume, and durability. He notes that Lawler is declining and didn't look great against Nick Diaz. Barberena's high strike output (186 vs Matt Brown, 195 vs Vicente Luque) is seen as the difference-maker.

"I think brian barbarena's forward pressure constant volume i think that's going to be the difference here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 28, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Bryan Barberena

Big Brady hesitantly picks Bryan Barberena, citing his youth and volume, but admits neither fighter looks great. He notes Lawler's recent win over Nick Diaz was his first in years, and Barberena has taken damage. He expects a close decision and advises against betting.

Barberena by decision; no bet
"give me brian barbarena as a dog but i just feel like nobody should be confident in this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Robbie Lawler

Cody thinks Lawler's power and experience will be too much for Barberena, who has shown poor wrestling defense and bad decision-making. He expects Lawler to mix in takedowns and win a gritty fight.

"gotta go with Robbie Lawler my boy"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 30, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Bryan Barberena

Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Bryan Barberena as the underdog, citing that Lawler is 40 years old and may not have the same ferocity. He notes that Barberena can still dig deep and throw high output, while Lawler has recently resorted to old habits like shadowboxing. Levi acknowledges that Lawler could win if the old 'Ruthless' version shows up, but he sees it as a dog-or-pass situation and prefers the underdog price.

Dog-or-pass; underdog price attractive.
"i'm gonna slightly lean with brian barbarena just for the underdog price here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Robbie Lawler

This is a great stylistic matchup for Lawler; Barberena will stand and trade. Lawler's power and experience should prevail. The only concern is Lawler's age (40), but his power is the last thing to go. Lawler by decision or KO is likely.

"i'm leaning robbie lawler here again the only thing scaring me off is uh the 40 year old number"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Robbie Lawler

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Lawler's significant strikes over 73.5 on PrizePicks is a good play. He expects a brawl and thinks Lawler will get the job done.

Lawler over 73.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I agree on with uh I like ruthless Robbie to get the job done in this spot"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Bryan Barberena

The MMA Guru picks Bryan Barberena, arguing that Robbie Lawler has declined significantly, losing power and explosiveness due to age and accumulated damage. He believes Barberena will outwork Lawler with body shots and volume, predicting a 30-27 or 30-26 decision with a possible 10-8 round. He notes Lawler's recent performances have been weak and that Barberena has momentum.

"i'm going to go with brian barbarena breaking robbie lawler as the fight goes on"
WIN vs Nick Diaz
TKO (retirement) R3 0:44 · UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Sep 25, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robbie Lawler 0 150 of 339 44% 150 of 339 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Nick Diaz 0 131 of 221 59% 131 of 221 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robbie Lawler 0 71 of 176 40% 71 of 176 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Nick Diaz 0 57 of 107 53% 57 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Robbie Lawler 0 73 of 145 50% 73 of 145 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nick Diaz 0 64 of 98 65% 64 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Robbie Lawler 0 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nick Diaz 0 10 of 16 62% 10 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robbie Lawler 150 of 339 44% 114 of 294 36 of 45 0 of 0 144 of 331 6 of 8 0 of 0
Nick Diaz 131 of 221 59% 88 of 176 33 of 35 10 of 10 99 of 182 31 of 38 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robbie Lawler 71 of 176 40% 54 of 155 17 of 21 0 of 0 70 of 174 1 of 2 0 of 0
Nick Diaz 57 of 107 53% 35 of 84 15 of 16 7 of 7 43 of 90 14 of 17 0 of 0
2 Robbie Lawler 73 of 145 50% 58 of 126 15 of 19 0 of 0 68 of 139 5 of 6 0 of 0
Nick Diaz 64 of 98 65% 47 of 80 15 of 16 2 of 2 47 of 77 17 of 21 0 of 0
3 Robbie Lawler 6 of 18 33% 2 of 13 4 of 5 0 of 0 6 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nick Diaz 10 of 16 62% 6 of 12 3 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Nick Diaz

Angelo picks Diaz, defying logic. He argues that Lawler has taken years of damage in wars, while Diaz has had five years off to heal. Angelo believes Diaz's high volume and chin will be key, and he expects Diaz to overwhelm Lawler with strikes.

Angelo played more more on Monkey Knife Fight, expecting a high-volume fight. He also mentions DraftKings pricing: Diaz at $7,000 is better value.
"I'm picking Nick Diaz and it defies all logic"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Robbie Lawler

Big Brady picks Robbie Lawler to win, but with very low confidence. He notes that Lawler has been more active, while Diaz hasn't fought in 6.5 years and hasn't won in 9.5 years. He admits there are too many unknowns to bet this fight and is picking Lawler simply because he's the more active fighter.

"i'll go robbie lawler but zero confidence"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Robbie Lawler

Cody picks Lawler, citing Diaz's long layoff, lack of recent wins, party lifestyle, and questionable training. He notes Lawler has been consistently training and competing against top competition. He also mentions Diaz's poor timing in recent sparring footage and the weight advantage Diaz may have, but still favors Lawler's activity and wrestling.

fight goes to decision (-125)
"i got to go with robbie but i'm so i'm so happy to see that diaz is back"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 24, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Nick Diaz

Daniel Levi leans toward Nick Diaz, citing Robbie Lawler's decline since the Carlos Condit fight. He notes Lawler has lost to Ben Askren and Colby Covington, and his spirit seems diminished. Levi believes if Diaz doesn't fall over early, his volume and cardio in a five-round fight will be too much for Lawler. However, he acknowledges the uncertainty around Diaz's long layoff and conditioning, making this a low-confidence pick.

"i do kind of see nick diaz getting to him down the stretch this is a five round fight"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Robbie Lawler

Jacob picks Lawler, citing his recent activity and that he hasn't been finished in his losses. He thinks Lawler will look sharper and that Diaz may struggle early after the layoff. Jacob doesn't love the pick but leans Lawler.

Jacob placed a bet on the fight going the distance at +105. He also agrees with more more on Monkey Knife Fight due to five rounds.
"my pick's actually going to be Robbie"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 25, 2021 (fight day)
Nick Diaz

The host leans towards Nick Diaz by fourth-round TKO. He believes Diaz's durability and pace will be key in a five-round fight. He expects Diaz to weather Lawler's early storm and then put it on him later. He notes that both fighters have question marks and advises against betting this fight, but likes the over 2.5 rounds. He thinks Diaz's legendary chin will hold up.

Over 2.5 rounds at -200
"i'm gonna go nick diaz probably round four tko"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Robbie Lawler

Paul picks Lawler, acknowledging the uncertainty around Diaz's form and motivation. He notes Diaz hasn't won in 10 years and looked poor against Anderson Silva. He expects Lawler to be in shape and possibly use wrestling. He is interested in the weigh-ins for clues.

"i think robbie lawler that's where the money seems to be moving in right now robbie lawler would be my pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Robbie Lawler

The MMA Guru picks Robbie Lawler over Nick Diaz, despite acknowledging the possibility of a Diaz win. He cites Diaz's six-year layoff and questionable lifestyle, while Lawler has been active and trains daily. He expects Lawler to come out explosive and finish Diaz by first-round TKO, possibly with calf kicks. He notes that Lawler sees this as a retirement opportunity and will be motivated. He also mentions that Diaz's boxing-heavy style leaves him vulnerable to leg kicks.

first round tko, calf kicks
"i'm gonna go with robbie lawler here ... i think lawler's going to come out real explosive and i think he's going to get a first round ko over nick diaz"
LOSS vs Neil Magny
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · Aug 29, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Neil Magny 0 26 of 45 57% 41 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:33
Robbie Lawler 0 62 of 88 70% 116 of 144 4 of 7 57% 0 0 8:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Neil Magny 0 8 of 8 100% 12 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:35
Robbie Lawler 0 11 of 11 100% 40 of 42 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:40
2 Neil Magny 0 7 of 14 50% 9 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robbie Lawler 0 16 of 21 76% 32 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:25
3 Neil Magny 0 11 of 23 47% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
Robbie Lawler 0 35 of 56 62% 44 of 65 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Neil Magny 26 of 45 57% 18 of 36 4 of 5 4 of 4 15 of 33 6 of 6 5 of 6
Robbie Lawler 62 of 88 70% 36 of 61 21 of 22 5 of 5 39 of 63 16 of 18 7 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Neil Magny 8 of 8 100% 5 of 5 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 4 2 of 2 2 of 2
Robbie Lawler 11 of 11 100% 1 of 1 9 of 9 1 of 1 3 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 6
2 Neil Magny 7 of 14 50% 6 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 8 2 of 2 3 of 4
Robbie Lawler 16 of 21 76% 12 of 17 3 of 3 1 of 1 10 of 15 5 of 5 1 of 1
3 Neil Magny 11 of 23 47% 7 of 18 2 of 3 2 of 2 9 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0
Robbie Lawler 35 of 56 62% 23 of 43 9 of 10 3 of 3 26 of 45 9 of 11 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Big Brady picks Magny, believing Lawler is on the back end of his career and hesitant to throw. He thinks Magny will use his length and reach to pick Lawler apart from range and win a decision. He notes Lawler's only path to victory is a knockout, but doubts Lawler still has that power.

looking at the magni decision prop
"give me neil magne to win this fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 29, 2020 (fight day)
Robbie Lawler

Daniel Levi picks Robbie Lawler at plus money, arguing that Lawler's level of competition has been much higher than Magny's recent opponents. He believes Lawler will crack Magny with hard shots in the first round, possibly getting a knockout, and that Magny's cardio advantage may only show in the third round. He acknowledges the risk of Lawler being past his prime but sees value in the underdog line.

plus 200 line, value on the underdog
"we're looking at a plus 200 line i'm going with robbie lower to get back on track here man"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Aug 28, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Neil Magny

Magny has good cardio, reach, and a clinch game that can stifle Lawler. Lawler is on a three-fight skid and has been out over a year; his form is uncertain. Magny should grind out a decision, but the -235 line is too high given Lawler's potential if he shows up with a leg-kick-heavy game plan.

"i do think that we will see neil magni grind out this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 23, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Neil Magny

The host picks Neil Magny, stating that Lawler's only chance is an early KO, but Lawler hasn't had a KO finish on the feet since Jake Ellenberger. He believes Magny will outrange Lawler with jabs, front kicks, and leg kicks, and that Lawler is injury-prone. He considers Magny a safe bet.

guaranteed money
"i'm gonna go with neil madney getting a job done i think that's guaranteed money kind of"
LOSS vs Colby Covington
Decision (unanimous) (50–44, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Lawler · Aug 03, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Colby Covington 0 179 of 515 34% 201 of 541 10 of 18 55% 0 0 8:42
Robbie Lawler 0 78 of 167 46% 82 of 171 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Colby Covington 0 13 of 29 44% 24 of 41 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:57
Robbie Lawler 0 4 of 18 22% 5 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Colby Covington 0 33 of 105 31% 36 of 108 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:18
Robbie Lawler 0 6 of 7 85% 6 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Colby Covington 0 41 of 117 35% 43 of 122 2 of 5 40% 0 0 0:51
Robbie Lawler 0 23 of 48 47% 25 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Colby Covington 0 51 of 130 39% 56 of 135 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:27
Robbie Lawler 0 22 of 42 52% 23 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Colby Covington 0 41 of 134 30% 42 of 135 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
Robbie Lawler 0 23 of 52 44% 23 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Colby Covington 179 of 515 34% 128 of 454 20 of 28 31 of 33 154 of 477 25 of 38 0 of 0
Robbie Lawler 78 of 167 46% 61 of 144 10 of 16 7 of 7 66 of 152 12 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Colby Covington 13 of 29 44% 10 of 26 2 of 2 1 of 1 8 of 21 5 of 8 0 of 0
Robbie Lawler 4 of 18 22% 2 of 12 1 of 5 1 of 1 3 of 16 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Colby Covington 33 of 105 31% 26 of 96 2 of 3 5 of 6 28 of 98 5 of 7 0 of 0
Robbie Lawler 6 of 7 85% 4 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Colby Covington 41 of 117 35% 24 of 96 5 of 8 12 of 13 36 of 108 5 of 9 0 of 0
Robbie Lawler 23 of 48 47% 17 of 42 2 of 2 4 of 4 19 of 44 4 of 4 0 of 0
4 Colby Covington 51 of 130 39% 38 of 115 4 of 6 9 of 9 44 of 121 7 of 9 0 of 0
Robbie Lawler 22 of 42 52% 19 of 39 2 of 2 1 of 1 15 of 35 7 of 7 0 of 0
5 Colby Covington 41 of 134 30% 30 of 121 7 of 9 4 of 4 38 of 129 3 of 5 0 of 0
Robbie Lawler 23 of 52 44% 19 of 46 4 of 6 0 of 0 23 of 51 0 of 1 0 of 0
LOSS vs Ben Askren
Technical Submission (bulldog choke) R1 3:20 · UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · Mar 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ben Askren 0 26 of 29 89% 30 of 33 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:33
Robbie Lawler 0 0 of 1 0% 3 of 5 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ben Askren 0 26 of 29 89% 30 of 33 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:33
Robbie Lawler 0 0 of 1 0% 3 of 5 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ben Askren 26 of 29 89% 21 of 24 5 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 2 9 of 9 16 of 18
Robbie Lawler 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ben Askren 26 of 29 89% 21 of 24 5 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 2 9 of 9 16 of 18
Robbie Lawler 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC on Fox: Lawler vs. dos Anjos · Dec 16, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael dos Anjos 0 86 of 212 40% 137 of 267 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:24
Robbie Lawler 0 172 of 291 59% 219 of 343 2 of 7 28% 0 0 7:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael dos Anjos 0 14 of 40 35% 18 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:14
Robbie Lawler 0 19 of 49 38% 31 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:34
2 Rafael dos Anjos 0 34 of 74 45% 36 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Robbie Lawler 0 58 of 97 59% 60 of 99 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
3 Rafael dos Anjos 0 16 of 26 61% 29 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:13
Robbie Lawler 0 19 of 28 67% 40 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:12
4 Rafael dos Anjos 0 11 of 40 27% 18 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Robbie Lawler 0 39 of 63 61% 44 of 72 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:31
5 Rafael dos Anjos 0 11 of 32 34% 36 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robbie Lawler 0 37 of 54 68% 44 of 61 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael dos Anjos 86 of 212 40% 53 of 171 32 of 40 1 of 1 48 of 159 38 of 53 0 of 0
Robbie Lawler 172 of 291 59% 100 of 199 48 of 64 24 of 28 104 of 203 58 of 78 10 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael dos Anjos 14 of 40 35% 6 of 28 8 of 12 0 of 0 7 of 29 7 of 11 0 of 0
Robbie Lawler 19 of 49 38% 2 of 25 9 of 15 8 of 9 10 of 35 9 of 14 0 of 0
2 Rafael dos Anjos 34 of 74 45% 23 of 61 10 of 12 1 of 1 24 of 61 10 of 13 0 of 0
Robbie Lawler 58 of 97 59% 39 of 73 13 of 16 6 of 8 51 of 88 7 of 9 0 of 0
3 Rafael dos Anjos 16 of 26 61% 4 of 12 12 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 8 15 of 18 0 of 0
Robbie Lawler 19 of 28 67% 15 of 19 3 of 8 1 of 1 3 of 7 6 of 11 10 of 10
4 Rafael dos Anjos 11 of 40 27% 10 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 35 3 of 5 0 of 0
Robbie Lawler 39 of 63 61% 24 of 46 10 of 11 5 of 6 23 of 44 16 of 19 0 of 0
5 Rafael dos Anjos 11 of 32 34% 10 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 26 3 of 6 0 of 0
Robbie Lawler 37 of 54 68% 20 of 36 13 of 14 4 of 4 17 of 29 20 of 25 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · Jul 29, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robbie Lawler 0 77 of 156 49% 85 of 164 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:21
Donald Cerrone 0 82 of 166 49% 99 of 185 1 of 10 10% 0 0 1:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robbie Lawler 0 37 of 57 64% 42 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:21
Donald Cerrone 0 15 of 25 60% 28 of 38 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:33
2 Robbie Lawler 0 9 of 23 39% 9 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 0 29 of 69 42% 31 of 73 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Robbie Lawler 0 31 of 76 40% 34 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 0 38 of 72 52% 40 of 74 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robbie Lawler 77 of 156 49% 47 of 116 28 of 37 2 of 3 35 of 101 42 of 55 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 82 of 166 49% 50 of 127 26 of 32 6 of 7 56 of 125 25 of 40 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robbie Lawler 37 of 57 64% 24 of 42 12 of 14 1 of 1 6 of 17 31 of 40 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 15 of 25 60% 3 of 12 11 of 12 1 of 1 6 of 15 8 of 9 1 of 1
2 Robbie Lawler 9 of 23 39% 4 of 15 4 of 6 1 of 2 9 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 29 of 69 42% 18 of 54 7 of 10 4 of 5 26 of 60 3 of 9 0 of 0
3 Robbie Lawler 31 of 76 40% 19 of 59 12 of 17 0 of 0 20 of 61 11 of 15 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 38 of 72 52% 29 of 61 8 of 10 1 of 1 24 of 50 14 of 22 0 of 0
Matt Brown - Fight History
WIN vs Court McGee
KO (punch) R1 4:09 · UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · May 13, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Brown 1 11 of 15 73% 22 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Court McGee 0 8 of 31 25% 17 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Brown 1 11 of 15 73% 22 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Court McGee 0 8 of 31 25% 17 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Brown 11 of 15 73% 2 of 4 3 of 4 6 of 7 10 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Court McGee 8 of 31 25% 2 of 21 2 of 5 4 of 5 6 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Brown 11 of 15 73% 2 of 4 3 of 4 6 of 7 10 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Court McGee 8 of 31 25% 2 of 21 2 of 5 4 of 5 6 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 7, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Angelo picks Matt Brown, saying he thinks Brown will be the more durable of the two. He notes Court McGee is coming off a bad knockout loss and his chin is a question. He acknowledges the line movement tracker shows McGee went from +140 to -180 favorite, and that trend has been 7-1, but he goes against it. He is not betting on this fight.

"I'm still going to lean Matt Brown I'm gonna go against that Trend there but no bet absolutely no bet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Court McGee

Big Brady picks Court McGee but expresses distrust after McGee's fight against Condit where he didn't attempt a single takedown. He believes if McGee uses the right game plan—wrestling and taking down Matt Brown—he should win easily. Brady notes Brown is 42 with poor takedown defense and cardio, and McGee has better cardio and wrestling. He predicts a third-round submission, but says he can't fully trust McGee after the Condit fight.

third round submission
"I'll say he does do that I'll say he goes out there takes down Matt Brown rents the repeat and grinds this guy across three rounds maybe even a late finish could be on the table here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Court McGee

Cody picks McGee, citing his better gas tank and durability. He notes that Brown's chin and reflexes have declined with age, and that McGee's kickboxing is good enough to compete. He expects McGee to wrestle and control the fight, especially in later rounds. He mentions the 'died and came back' theory for cardio.

"I got to go with the durability and the cardio which both still favor Court McGee so I too will take Court McGee but uh it's an old man Legends fight which I am so down for"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Court McGee

Connor leans toward Court McGee, acknowledging that Matt Brown could knock him out early but that McGee's durability and pace are likely to carry him. He notes that Brown's endurance has declined and that McGee's grinding style is antithetical to Brown's current capabilities. Connor expects McGee to win by decision, as Brown's recent fights show he fades.

"I think I just have to lean McGee, like sure. Matt Brown could knock him out in the first round, right?"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown, admitting bias as he will attend the fight and is a fan. He believes Brown is historically the better fighter, having reached number five in the welterweight rankings, while McGee never cracked the top 15. However, he acknowledges Brown's age (42) and cardio issues, which could allow McGee to push the pace and mix in takedowns. Levi hopes Brown gets a knockout to tie the UFC record, but notes the pick is not based on a betting edge.

Brown by KO to tie UFC knockout record; no bet placed
"I'm gonna pick Matt Brown uh just because historically speaking I think he wins this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Court McGee

McGee has a cardio and pace advantage over the aging Brown. He will tie Brown up, use footwork to avoid big shots, and weaponize his cardio to take over in the later rounds. Brown has slowed down in recent fights and his wrestling may not be effective against McGee. McGee will grind out a decision victory.

"I think Court McGee will do a good job of tying him up using his but you know footwork and bicycle to get out of the way of these big shots of Matt Brown"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Court McGee

Paul picks McGee, emphasizing his wrestling and cardio advantage. He notes that McGee can make the fight easy by sticking to takedowns and controlling Brown. He added McGee to a chalk parlay. He acknowledges the possibility of a 'gentleman's agreement' striking affair but believes McGee's grappling is the key.

added to parlay with Garry and Ulberg
"I think Court McGee can make this fight very easy on himself by sticking to the wrestling getting up in Matt Brown's face and getting takedowns and securing them and holding in position"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Matt Brown

The MMA Guru picks Matt Brown, citing his better recent performances and the fact that Court McGee is coming off a brutal KO loss. He believes Brown's toughness and aggression will be too much, predicting a KO in the second or third round.

KO in the second or third round
"I'm actually going to pick Matt Brown by KO in the second or third round here against Court mcgear"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Court McGee

Zane picks Court McGee because he believes McGee's pace and grinding style will overwhelm Matt Brown, who fades as fights progress. He notes that Brown is still dangerous early but lacks the endurance to keep up with McGee's constant pressure and wrestling. Zane expects McGee to win a decision, as Brown's recent losses show he slows down significantly.

"I guess I'll take court McGee just cause one round of chance from exactly."
LOSS vs Bryan Barberena
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · Mar 26, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bryan Barberena 0 81 of 129 62% 95 of 145 5 of 7 71% 0 0 5:01
Matt Brown 0 111 of 211 52% 186 of 289 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bryan Barberena 0 23 of 37 62% 25 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:39
Matt Brown 0 23 of 51 45% 62 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
2 Bryan Barberena 0 23 of 36 63% 29 of 43 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:45
Matt Brown 0 35 of 60 58% 59 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:30
3 Bryan Barberena 0 35 of 56 62% 41 of 63 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:37
Matt Brown 0 53 of 100 53% 65 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bryan Barberena 81 of 129 62% 36 of 75 38 of 44 7 of 10 51 of 95 24 of 28 6 of 6
Matt Brown 111 of 211 52% 82 of 170 12 of 18 17 of 23 78 of 164 28 of 42 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bryan Barberena 23 of 37 62% 8 of 21 12 of 12 3 of 4 9 of 22 11 of 12 3 of 3
Matt Brown 23 of 51 45% 13 of 36 2 of 4 8 of 11 19 of 46 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Bryan Barberena 23 of 36 63% 9 of 20 12 of 14 2 of 2 17 of 29 6 of 7 0 of 0
Matt Brown 35 of 60 58% 26 of 47 2 of 3 7 of 10 23 of 45 7 of 10 5 of 5
3 Bryan Barberena 35 of 56 62% 19 of 34 14 of 18 2 of 4 25 of 44 7 of 9 3 of 3
Matt Brown 53 of 100 53% 43 of 87 8 of 11 2 of 2 36 of 73 17 of 27 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Bryan Barberena

Angelo picks Bryan Barberena, citing his durability, impressive volume, and forward pressure. He notes Barberena landed 108 strikes in his last fight and 169 against Vicente Luque. He thinks Barberena's constant volume will be the difference and expects a decision win. He says he probably won't bet on this fight.

"i need to go with brian barnard here he's incredibly durable his volume is impressive"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Big Brady picks Matt Brown to knock out Bryan Barberena in the first or second round. He believes Barberena is washed after the Luke fight, citing poor takedown defense and being dropped twice by Jason Witt. He notes that Brown still has power, as shown in his last fight against Lima, and that Barberena's chin is no longer reliable. Brady also mentions that Barberena has health issues and has been taken down frequently in recent fights.

Matt Brown wins by KO in round 1 or 2
"I'm gonna take the the 41 year old here to actually knock out brian barbarino we see that matt brown still has that power in his hands with his knockout in his last fight against lima."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Cody strongly favors Matt Brown, highlighting Barberena's declining durability and poor takedown defense. He notes Barberena's recent wars and losses, while Brown still has power and timing. He thinks Brown can win by KO or decision. He calls it his first bet of the week.

first bet of the week
"i'm actually gonna go towards the brown side of this one"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Mar 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown, admitting he is biased as a fan. He believes Brown is the better fighter with more finishing ability and can mix in takedowns. He notes both fighters are on the decline but thinks Brown's power and hometown crowd will carry him. He is hesitant because of Brown's age and chin, and Barberena's durability. He also points out Barberena hasn't looked the same since the Luque fight.

"I'm still gonna go with matt brown here guys... I think he's going to be buoyed by this crowd"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Bryan Barberena

The host picks Barberena, noting his youth, body punching (30% of strikes to body), and Matt Brown's known body vulnerability. He expects a striking battle and believes Barberena will get a knockout, possibly in round 3 as Brown slows down. He also likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision'.

Barberena inside the distance at +315; fight doesn't go to decision at -130 to -140; Barberena round 3 at +1050
"i'm gonna go brian barber arena as the pick but rather than picking a side here again the odds are great on either side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Paul picks Matt Brown, citing his wrestling advantage and Barberena's inability to stop takedowns. He notes Brown's hometown crowd and experience. He thinks Brown can grind out a win or land a big shot. He expects the line to move and hopes for plus money.

"i'm gonna pick matt brown but i'm very interested to hear what you got"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Matt Brown

The MMA Guru picks Matt Brown by second-round TKO over Bryan Barberena. He envisions Barberena slightly edging the first round before getting caught with a big overhand. The Guru trusts Brown's power and recent resurgence, noting his second-round finish of Diego Lima, while Barberena's wars may leave him vulnerable.

second round tko
"i'm gonna go with matt the immortal brown my boy"
WIN vs Dhiego Lima
KO (punch) R2 3:02 · UFC on ESPN: The Korean Zombie vs. Ige · Jun 19, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Brown 1 27 of 49 55% 30 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dhiego Lima 0 23 of 54 42% 23 of 54 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Brown 0 15 of 30 50% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dhiego Lima 0 12 of 32 37% 12 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Matt Brown 1 12 of 19 63% 15 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dhiego Lima 0 11 of 22 50% 11 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:52
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Brown 27 of 49 55% 12 of 27 11 of 17 4 of 5 22 of 44 5 of 5 0 of 0
Dhiego Lima 23 of 54 42% 8 of 38 4 of 4 11 of 12 22 of 53 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Brown 15 of 30 50% 8 of 18 4 of 8 3 of 4 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dhiego Lima 12 of 32 37% 2 of 21 2 of 2 8 of 9 11 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Matt Brown 12 of 19 63% 4 of 9 7 of 9 1 of 1 7 of 14 5 of 5 0 of 0
Dhiego Lima 11 of 22 50% 6 of 17 2 of 2 3 of 3 11 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Angelo picks Matt Brown as an underdog, citing Lima's brother's recent loss as a potential emotional distraction. He thinks Brown's toughness, power, and underrated wrestling could be factors. He is not confident and has no bets on the fight, but likes the over on strikes for both.

monkey knife fight: more more (max play)
"i have matt brown winning this fight it is not the most confident pick i've ever had."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 15, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Big Brady picks the younger Lima, citing Brown's age (40) and 13 finished losses. He thinks Lima's leg kicks and youth will lead to a finish, but acknowledges Brown could knock Lima out. He recommends staying away from betting.

win by KO
"I will take the younger fighter in diego lima to get it done I'll say bye knockout here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Cody picks Lima but is hesitant, noting Lima's questionable chin and recent split decisions. He acknowledges Matt Brown's early power but believes Brown's cardio and speed have declined. Cody thinks Lima's calf kicks and jab will allow him to pull away in later rounds, but he is not confident enough to bet.

"i think i gotta take the coward's way out and probably go with diego lima you know again i just i i don't love betting on these guys at this stage of their career"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Daniel Levi picks Dhiego Lima, citing youth and freshness. He notes that Matt Brown is 40 years old and his durability is declining, as seen in the Miguel Baeza fight where he was knocked out by punches for the first time. He believes Lima's calf kicks and left hook will be effective, and that he can either finish or win a decision. He respects Brown but thinks the age and recent performances favor Lima.

"i'm gonna go with diego lima by being the younger fresher guy i think he chops him down with calf kicks and maybe finds a left hook finish"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Jacob picks Dhiego Lima, expecting him to chew up Brown's legs with kicks and out-strike him. He thinks Brown's age and lack of volume will be issues. He has Lima in his lineup at $9,000 and believes Lima will dominate without a finish.

"i am picking diego he's in my lineup."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 17, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

The host picks Dhiego Lima by decision, citing his calf kicks and striking advantage. He notes Lima's cardio issues in his last fight but believes he can implement a similar game plan to the Miguel Baeza fight, where calf kicks debilitated Brown. He thinks Lima can get in and out of exchanges and slow Brown down. He is not highly confident but sees Lima as the better fighter against the 40-year-old Brown, who may be on a three-fight skid.

Lima by decision at +150; over 2.5 rounds at -130 mentioned as live; Lima by KO at +400 noted
"i'll go with diego lima to win this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Paul picks Lima, citing Lima's youth and striking advantage. He notes Brown's age (40) and declining cardio, and believes Lima can win by decision or late finish. Paul also bets under 2.5 rounds, expecting a finish either way.

under 2.5 rounds +120
"i'll pick diego lima to win this fight diego or diego lima maybe in rounds two or three i guess is where i would go"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2021 (fight day)
Dhiego Lima

The MMA Guru picks Dhiego Lima to win by first-round TKO via lead hook. He believes Matt Brown has taken too much damage and will rush in with his hands down, allowing Lima to land a check hook similar to the one Miguel Baeza landed on Brown. He references Lima's previous lead hook KO of Chad Laprise and expects Lima to finish Brown at the end of the first round.

lead hook KO, first round TKO
"i'm gonna go with diego lima i'm gonna go the lead hook ko... finish him at the end of the first round by tko"
LOSS vs Carlos Condit
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Holloway vs. Kattar · Jan 16, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Condit 0 39 of 88 44% 157 of 209 2 of 4 50% 0 1 4:52
Matt Brown 0 28 of 37 75% 37 of 52 1 of 6 16% 0 0 6:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Condit 0 6 of 22 27% 60 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:23
Matt Brown 0 9 of 14 64% 15 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:36
2 Carlos Condit 0 21 of 44 47% 58 of 83 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:25
Matt Brown 0 11 of 15 73% 12 of 16 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:37
3 Carlos Condit 0 12 of 22 54% 39 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:04
Matt Brown 0 8 of 8 100% 10 of 13 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Condit 39 of 88 44% 30 of 73 4 of 8 5 of 7 22 of 68 5 of 5 12 of 15
Matt Brown 28 of 37 75% 13 of 22 11 of 11 4 of 4 11 of 18 8 of 8 9 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Condit 6 of 22 27% 3 of 16 1 of 3 2 of 3 3 of 17 0 of 0 3 of 5
Matt Brown 9 of 14 64% 6 of 11 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 7
2 Carlos Condit 21 of 44 47% 17 of 38 2 of 3 2 of 3 14 of 36 0 of 0 7 of 8
Matt Brown 11 of 15 73% 3 of 7 6 of 6 2 of 2 6 of 10 5 of 5 0 of 0
3 Carlos Condit 12 of 22 54% 10 of 19 1 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 15 5 of 5 2 of 2
Matt Brown 8 of 8 100% 4 of 4 4 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 4
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

Big Brady picks Carlos Condit to win inside the distance, specifically by second-round knockout. He notes Condit's 90% finish rate and that he has never been knocked out, while Brown has been knocked out three times and is weak to the body. He believes Brown's durability is not what it once was and that Condit can finish him. He also mentions that Brown has been submitted 10 times, but Condit's path is via knockout.

second round knockout
"i'm going to say second round knockout for condit there"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown as a slight underdog, calling it a 50-55 fight. He notes Condit's last win over Court McGee was unimpressive, while Brown has knockout power and a history of finishing fights. He expects Condit to try to point-fight, but Brown's pressure and body shots could be key. He admits low confidence.

"i'll take the plus 145 dog i'll go with matt brown"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Matt Brown's pressure style is a bad matchup for Condit, who struggles when opponents stay in his face and take away his space. Brown will push forward, use dirty boxing, and grind Condit against the cage. Condit's takedown defense is poor and he often relies on his back, but Brown is not a submission threat. Condit's best chance is on the feet with kicks, but Brown's durability and pressure should earn him a decision. The line should be closer to even, so plus money on Brown is value.

Matt Brown by decision is the most likely outcome; a TKO is possible but less likely given Condit's durability.
"I think matt brown given his style and what we've seen from him as of late... i would line it a little bit closer to an even type of fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Condit over Matt Brown, citing Condit's superior chin and striking. He notes Brown is losing his chin and coming off a TKO loss, while Condit has never been knocked out. He predicts Condit will win by third-round TKO once Brown gasses. He also mentions Condit's historical robbery against Robbie Lawler.

third round TKO
"i'm gonna go with carlos condit's chin sticking with him in this fight and him getting a tko finish in the third round once matt brown starts to gas a little bit from the stand up"
LOSS vs Miguel Baeza
TKO (punches) R2 0:18 · UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Harris · May 16, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miguel Baeza 0 33 of 61 54% 33 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Matt Brown 2 37 of 73 50% 42 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miguel Baeza 0 33 of 59 55% 33 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Matt Brown 1 32 of 65 49% 37 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:55
2 Miguel Baeza 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Matt Brown 1 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miguel Baeza 33 of 61 54% 25 of 51 8 of 10 0 of 0 21 of 44 12 of 17 0 of 0
Matt Brown 37 of 73 50% 21 of 54 5 of 7 11 of 12 29 of 62 1 of 2 7 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miguel Baeza 33 of 59 55% 25 of 49 8 of 10 0 of 0 21 of 42 12 of 17 0 of 0
Matt Brown 32 of 65 49% 17 of 48 5 of 6 10 of 11 25 of 56 1 of 2 6 of 7
2 Miguel Baeza 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matt Brown 5 of 8 62% 4 of 6 0 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Miguel Baeza

Big Brady picks Miguel Baeza by first-round knockout, but is hesitant. He notes that Baeza's leg kicks are a huge factor and that Brown is dangerous on the feet and has a path to victory via takedowns. He compares the fight to the Askarov vs. Kelleher fight where an undefeated fighter got knocked out. He does not agree with Baeza being a -175 favorite and thinks the line should be closer.

first-round knockout, leg kicks, underdog +155 for Brown
"I am going with by aiza and I'll tell you why but you cannot count on Matt Brown... I'm going with by Asia I'm gonna go by first-round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 16, 2020 (fight day)
Matt Brown

Daniel Levi slightly leans with Matt Brown. He acknowledges that Miguel Baeza is super talented and could blow Brown out with a liver kick, but he thinks Brown will drag him into deep waters and drown him. He notes that Brown has historically been weak to the body but has been fighting with his hands down lately. He sees this as a good lesson for Baeza regardless.

"I'm gonna slightly lean with Matt Brown here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Matt Brown

The host picks Matt Brown, believing his veteran experience and pressure against the cage will overwhelm the undefeated Baeza. He thinks Baeza has not faced adversity and will struggle when things don't go his way. He predicts a TKO finish in the second or third round.

Matt Brown by TKO in the second or third round
"I think Matt Brown is gonna get this done maybe by finishing the second or third round I'll go with that TKO Matt Brown third or second round finish"
WIN vs Ben Saunders
KO (elbows and punches) R2 4:55 · UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · Dec 14, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Brown 0 30 of 47 63% 40 of 59 2 of 3 66% 0 0 7:34
Ben Saunders 0 12 of 23 52% 38 of 49 0 of 0 --- 4 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Brown 0 5 of 10 50% 10 of 17 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:08
Ben Saunders 0 9 of 14 64% 14 of 19 0 of 0 --- 4 0 0:00
2 Matt Brown 0 25 of 37 67% 30 of 42 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:26
Ben Saunders 0 3 of 9 33% 24 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Brown 30 of 47 63% 27 of 43 2 of 3 1 of 1 10 of 20 2 of 2 18 of 25
Ben Saunders 12 of 23 52% 10 of 17 2 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 15 0 of 0 7 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Brown 5 of 10 50% 4 of 8 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 4
Ben Saunders 9 of 14 64% 9 of 12 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 8
2 Matt Brown 25 of 37 67% 23 of 35 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 14 2 of 2 16 of 21
Ben Saunders 3 of 9 33% 1 of 5 2 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Diego Sanchez
KO (elbow) R1 3:44 · UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · Nov 11, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Brown 1 18 of 34 52% 20 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Diego Sanchez 0 12 of 20 60% 13 of 21 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Brown 1 18 of 34 52% 20 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Diego Sanchez 0 12 of 20 60% 13 of 21 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Brown 18 of 34 52% 14 of 30 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 28 6 of 6 0 of 0
Diego Sanchez 12 of 20 60% 7 of 12 2 of 5 3 of 3 10 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Brown 18 of 34 52% 14 of 30 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 28 6 of 6 0 of 0
Diego Sanchez 12 of 20 60% 7 of 12 2 of 5 3 of 3 10 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
LOSS vs Donald Cerrone
KO (Head Kick) R3 0:34 · UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · Dec 10, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Donald Cerrone 2 63 of 147 42% 64 of 148 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:35
Matt Brown 1 70 of 128 54% 73 of 131 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Donald Cerrone 0 34 of 72 47% 35 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:32
Matt Brown 0 27 of 63 42% 29 of 65 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Donald Cerrone 1 25 of 70 35% 25 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Matt Brown 1 41 of 60 68% 42 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
3 Donald Cerrone 1 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Matt Brown 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Donald Cerrone 63 of 147 42% 46 of 126 7 of 11 10 of 10 62 of 143 1 of 4 0 of 0
Matt Brown 70 of 128 54% 42 of 91 28 of 36 0 of 1 62 of 118 8 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Donald Cerrone 34 of 72 47% 24 of 60 4 of 6 6 of 6 34 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matt Brown 27 of 63 42% 15 of 45 12 of 18 0 of 0 25 of 60 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Donald Cerrone 25 of 70 35% 19 of 62 3 of 5 3 of 3 24 of 66 1 of 4 0 of 0
Matt Brown 41 of 60 68% 26 of 43 15 of 16 0 of 1 35 of 53 6 of 7 0 of 0
3 Donald Cerrone 4 of 5 80% 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matt Brown 2 of 5 40% 1 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0