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Age 37
Height 5' 10"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 41
Height 5' 8"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Khabib Nurmagomedov
4.1 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
1.75 SApM
65.0% Str. Def.
5.32 TD Avg
48.0% TD Acc.
84.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Rafael dos Anjos
3.48 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
3.23 SApM
60.0% Str. Def.
1.95 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
54.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Khabib Nurmagomedov - Fight History
Technical Submission (triangle choke) R2 1:34 · UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Oct 24, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 26 of 80 32% 26 of 80 2 of 3 66% 1 0 0:55
Justin Gaethje 0 29 of 45 64% 29 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 23 of 60 38% 23 of 60 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:41
Justin Gaethje 0 23 of 36 63% 23 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 3 of 20 15% 3 of 20 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:14
Justin Gaethje 0 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khabib Nurmagomedov 26 of 80 32% 18 of 72 7 of 7 1 of 1 25 of 79 0 of 0 1 of 1
Justin Gaethje 29 of 45 64% 12 of 26 2 of 4 15 of 15 29 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khabib Nurmagomedov 23 of 60 38% 15 of 52 7 of 7 1 of 1 22 of 59 0 of 0 1 of 1
Justin Gaethje 23 of 36 63% 10 of 22 2 of 3 11 of 11 23 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Khabib Nurmagomedov 3 of 20 15% 3 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Justin Gaethje 6 of 9 66% 2 of 4 0 of 1 4 of 4 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Lightweight Title Fight: Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Justin Gaethje

Round 1
We made it to the UFC 254 headliner, in a rare title unification matchup as champion Nurmagomedov (28-0, 12-0 UFC) looks to keep his spotless record intact against interim titleholder “The Highlight” Gaethje (22-2, 5-2 UFC). This lightweight thriller for all the marbles will draw the assignment of referee Jason Herzog, and nothing more needs to be said to introduce what we are about to see here. The two men touch gloves to check in this top-tier fight, and we’re off to the races. Both men keep their distance early, with Gaethje leaning low and starting out with an inside leg kick. Nurmagomedov does not throw anything nor does he set up anything, and Gaethje thinks about another leg kick and lands it hard. Gaethje scores a right hand, and Nurmagomedov counters him with an overhand right. Nurmagomedov leaps up with an uppercut, and Gaethje is well out of the way. Nurmagomedov lands a jab and gets caught with a leg kick, leading him to rush in to a clinch. Nurmagomedov cannot get hold of him, and Gaethje swings wildly with hooks. He cracks Nurmagomedov with a right hand, and he scores two more heavy leg kicks. Nurmagomedov is chasing after him with long punches, and Nurmagomedov lands a body kick. Nurmagomedov jabs and rushes forward with a knee. Gaethje avoids a right hand and kicks the lead leg. Gaethje fires up a head kick, and Nurmagomedov shrugs at him after it gets blocked. Gaethje wings another leg kick, and Nurmagomedov scores a left hand and a body kick. The Russian leaps in the air with a flying knee, and he sticks Gaethje a few times with a jab. A few more jabs disrupt Gaethje’s movement, and the American gets off a leg kick. Two big left hooks score for Nurmagomedov, and Gaethje cracks him back harder. Gaethje smashes his leg into the thigh, and he nails Nurmagomedov with a left hand. The Russian charges in to close the distance, and he hits a double leg takedown with 30 seconds to go. “The Eagle” climbs to mount with ease, and he rolls for an armbar with seconds to go. Gaethje punches the body a few times as he is unconcerned with submission danger, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov

Round 2
Nurmagomedov starts the round with a few jabs and a follow-up right hand. Gaethje jumps at him to respond, and the Russian scores a leg kick of his own. Gaethje is on the defensive as he backs away, and Nurmagomedov is on him pressing the action. Nurmagomedov takes a left hand behind the ear, and he rushes in for a takedown but gets stuffed. Gaethje lands a leg kick to make his opponent stumble, and when Nurmagomedov recovers, he hits a takedown effortlessly. “The Eagle” slices to mount like a hot knife through butter, attacking an arm-triangle submission in the blink of an eye. Nurmagomedov sets up a mounted triangle choke, and he rolls to his back as he threatens with a triangle armbar. Gaethje is stuck in the worst position of his life, and try as he might, he can’t pull himself free. Gaethje lifts him up to slam him down, and he gets no space so he starts tapping out. Herzog does not see the repeated taps as Nurmagomedov tries to inform him that Gaethje submitted. Instead, Gaethje goes out, and Herzog finally calls a stop to the fight. Khabib Nurmagomedov is now 29-0 as a professional, and in the process, he unified his belts and ties the record for the most championship defenses in UFC lightweight history.
When the fight is over, Nurmagomedov is overcome with emotion, letting everything out on his knees in the middle of the cage. As Gaethje comes to, he goes over to console his former foe. Dana White wraps the belt around Nurmagomedov's waist, and Nurmagomedov pulls the tape off his gloves and gets his corner to help him remove it. Nurmagomedov retires in the cage, thanking everything for supporting him, the UFC for signing him, and his family for being there for him. He promised his mother that this would be his last fight, and he leaves his gloves in the center of the Octagon. If this is truly his final UFC bout -- and judging by his post-fight speech, it is -- he leaves behind an incredible legacy with 13 victories under the UFC banner, as arguably the #1 pound-for-pound fighter and one of the best to ever compete in the sport. It's unlikely we'll see someone like him in MMA again.

The Official Result
Khabib Nurmagomedov def. Justin Gaethje R2 1:34 via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Khabib Nurmagomedov

Big Brady confidently picks Khabib Nurmagomedov, stating he has never picked against him and never will. He believes Khabib's relentless takedowns and pressure will drain Gaethje's cardio, and that Gaethje's wrestling background hasn't been tested against someone like Khabib. He predicts a fourth-round submission.

submission, fourth round
"i'm gonna pick khabib to win here by uh give me a fourth round submission for khabib"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Oct 23, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Khabib Nurmagomedov

Daniel Levi acknowledges Gaethje's wrestling credentials and power, but ultimately leans with Khabib's consistent dominance and takedown machine style. He notes that Gaethje presents real threats with calf kicks and power, but Khabib's ability to set up takedowns with stand-up and his relentless pressure should prevail. He mentions that long-reigning champions sometimes lose when least expected, but he doesn't have the conviction to pick against Khabib.

Gaethje or pass from a betting perspective; Khabib was -165 vs McGregor and -250 vs Poirier, now -350 which may be adjusted correctly
"i'm gonna lean with habib nurmagomedov to get it done um but will i be surprised if geichi is the guy no i won't"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Khabib Nurmagomedov

The host picks Khabib Nurmagomedov confidently, citing his dominant wrestling, pressure, and ability to wear down opponents. He notes that Gaethje's leg kicks could be a factor but believes Khabib's grappling will be too much. He expects a fourth or fifth-round stoppage.

Khabib by submission or TKO in rounds 4-5
"i do feel more comfortable saying i'm predicting kabir to win this fight probably by fifth round or fourth round stoppage"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Khabib Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Khabib Nurmagomedov to win by submission (rear-naked choke) in the first round. He notes that Gaethje's new style with more footwork will back him into the cage, and that Gaethje hates wrestling and hasn't used it in fights. He believes Gaethje will get back up a few times but eventually be taken down and submitted due to Khabib's superior grappling and Gaethje's lack of high-level ground experience.

first round submission (rear-naked choke)
"i'm going to go with khabib nurmagomedov getting the job done... sinking the rear naked choke in the first round"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:06 · UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · Sep 07, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 22 of 41 53% 54 of 77 7 of 8 87% 2 0 8:51
Dustin Poirier 0 12 of 39 30% 30 of 57 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 8 of 12 66% 22 of 27 3 of 4 75% 1 0 3:39
Dustin Poirier 0 2 of 6 33% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 13 of 26 50% 26 of 39 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:41
Dustin Poirier 0 8 of 28 28% 17 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 1 of 3 33% 6 of 11 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:31
Dustin Poirier 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khabib Nurmagomedov 22 of 41 53% 16 of 35 3 of 3 3 of 3 10 of 27 1 of 1 11 of 13
Dustin Poirier 12 of 39 30% 5 of 26 2 of 7 5 of 6 12 of 38 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khabib Nurmagomedov 8 of 12 66% 7 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 9
Dustin Poirier 2 of 6 33% 0 of 1 0 of 2 2 of 3 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Khabib Nurmagomedov 13 of 26 50% 9 of 22 2 of 2 2 of 2 8 of 21 1 of 1 4 of 4
Dustin Poirier 8 of 28 28% 5 of 23 2 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Khabib Nurmagomedov 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 2 of 5 40% 0 of 2 0 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Submission (neck crank) R4 3:03 · UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · Oct 06, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 70 of 119 58% 104 of 157 3 of 7 42% 1 0 12:14
Conor McGregor 0 51 of 81 62% 96 of 128 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 7 of 9 77% 18 of 21 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:08
Conor McGregor 0 6 of 7 85% 39 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 41 of 60 68% 58 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:22
Conor McGregor 0 5 of 13 38% 7 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 15 of 37 40% 17 of 39 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:47
Conor McGregor 0 34 of 52 65% 44 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 7 of 13 53% 11 of 19 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:57
Conor McGregor 0 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khabib Nurmagomedov 70 of 119 58% 58 of 105 11 of 13 1 of 1 24 of 53 1 of 3 45 of 63
Conor McGregor 51 of 81 62% 34 of 60 16 of 19 1 of 2 35 of 65 10 of 10 6 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khabib Nurmagomedov 7 of 9 77% 7 of 8 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 8
Conor McGregor 6 of 7 85% 6 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 5
2 Khabib Nurmagomedov 41 of 60 68% 33 of 52 8 of 8 0 of 0 5 of 9 0 of 0 36 of 51
Conor McGregor 5 of 13 38% 3 of 10 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 1
3 Khabib Nurmagomedov 15 of 37 40% 12 of 33 2 of 3 1 of 1 14 of 34 1 of 3 0 of 0
Conor McGregor 34 of 52 65% 22 of 39 12 of 13 0 of 0 25 of 43 9 of 9 0 of 0
4 Khabib Nurmagomedov 7 of 13 53% 6 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 4
Conor McGregor 6 of 9 66% 3 of 5 2 of 2 1 of 2 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Al Iaquinta
Decision (unanimous) (50–44, 50–43, 50–43) R5 5:00 · UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · Apr 07, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 134 of 304 44% 172 of 352 6 of 15 40% 1 0 10:33
Al Iaquinta 0 41 of 141 29% 43 of 143 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 13 of 24 54% 35 of 55 3 of 6 50% 0 0 3:59
Al Iaquinta 0 0 of 8 0% 0 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 19 of 34 55% 25 of 40 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:00
Al Iaquinta 0 3 of 9 33% 5 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 37 of 87 42% 37 of 87 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Al Iaquinta 0 7 of 36 19% 7 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 35 of 93 37% 35 of 93 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Al Iaquinta 0 15 of 45 33% 15 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
5 Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 30 of 66 45% 40 of 77 1 of 3 33% 1 0 2:34
Al Iaquinta 0 16 of 43 37% 16 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khabib Nurmagomedov 134 of 304 44% 122 of 287 7 of 12 5 of 5 100 of 255 0 of 0 34 of 49
Al Iaquinta 41 of 141 29% 27 of 117 11 of 20 3 of 4 41 of 141 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khabib Nurmagomedov 13 of 24 54% 12 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 21
Al Iaquinta 0 of 8 0% 0 of 7 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Khabib Nurmagomedov 19 of 34 55% 17 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 12 0 of 0 17 of 22
Al Iaquinta 3 of 9 33% 0 of 6 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Khabib Nurmagomedov 37 of 87 42% 31 of 78 2 of 5 4 of 4 37 of 87 0 of 0 0 of 0
Al Iaquinta 7 of 36 19% 4 of 29 1 of 5 2 of 2 7 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Khabib Nurmagomedov 35 of 93 37% 32 of 89 2 of 3 1 of 1 35 of 93 0 of 0 0 of 0
Al Iaquinta 15 of 45 33% 12 of 40 3 of 4 0 of 1 15 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Khabib Nurmagomedov 30 of 66 45% 30 of 65 0 of 1 0 of 0 25 of 60 0 of 0 5 of 6
Al Iaquinta 16 of 43 37% 11 of 35 5 of 8 0 of 0 16 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Edson Barboza
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–25, 30–24) R3 5:00 · UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm · Dec 30, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 89 of 177 50% 154 of 246 4 of 13 30% 0 0 10:31
Edson Barboza 0 25 of 76 32% 25 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 36 of 68 52% 50 of 83 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:43
Edson Barboza 0 10 of 19 52% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 31 of 60 51% 59 of 89 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:28
Edson Barboza 0 9 of 26 34% 9 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 22 of 49 44% 45 of 74 2 of 6 33% 0 0 3:20
Edson Barboza 0 6 of 31 19% 6 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khabib Nurmagomedov 89 of 177 50% 77 of 162 8 of 11 4 of 4 32 of 96 2 of 3 55 of 78
Edson Barboza 25 of 76 32% 6 of 47 11 of 19 8 of 10 23 of 74 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khabib Nurmagomedov 36 of 68 52% 31 of 63 5 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 22 0 of 0 31 of 46
Edson Barboza 10 of 19 52% 0 of 6 4 of 6 6 of 7 10 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Khabib Nurmagomedov 31 of 60 51% 26 of 53 3 of 5 2 of 2 15 of 41 2 of 2 14 of 17
Edson Barboza 9 of 26 34% 4 of 17 5 of 9 0 of 0 8 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Khabib Nurmagomedov 22 of 49 44% 20 of 46 0 of 1 2 of 2 12 of 33 0 of 1 10 of 15
Edson Barboza 6 of 31 19% 2 of 24 2 of 4 2 of 3 5 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Submission (kimura) R3 2:31 · UFC 205: Alvarez vs. McGregor · Nov 12, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 94 of 142 66% 140 of 190 2 of 6 33% 1 0 8:44
Michael Johnson 0 19 of 77 24% 20 of 78 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 33 of 58 56% 49 of 74 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:03
Michael Johnson 0 16 of 52 30% 16 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 49 of 69 71% 73 of 95 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:35
Michael Johnson 0 1 of 20 5% 1 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
3 Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 12 of 15 80% 18 of 21 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:06
Michael Johnson 0 2 of 5 40% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khabib Nurmagomedov 94 of 142 66% 93 of 141 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 21 1 of 1 88 of 120
Michael Johnson 19 of 77 24% 9 of 51 7 of 21 3 of 5 19 of 77 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khabib Nurmagomedov 33 of 58 56% 32 of 57 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 32 of 52
Michael Johnson 16 of 52 30% 7 of 32 6 of 16 3 of 4 16 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Khabib Nurmagomedov 49 of 69 71% 49 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 11 1 of 1 45 of 57
Michael Johnson 1 of 20 5% 1 of 15 0 of 4 0 of 1 1 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Khabib Nurmagomedov 12 of 15 80% 12 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 11 of 11
Michael Johnson 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
TKO (punches) R2 3:38 · UFC on Fox: Teixeira vs. Evans · Apr 16, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 75 of 105 71% 107 of 139 2 of 3 66% 0 0 5:33
Darrell Horcher 0 6 of 27 22% 18 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 27 of 44 61% 33 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:21
Darrell Horcher 0 4 of 22 18% 12 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 48 of 61 78% 74 of 88 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:12
Darrell Horcher 0 2 of 5 40% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khabib Nurmagomedov 75 of 105 71% 73 of 103 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 10 1 of 1 71 of 94
Darrell Horcher 6 of 27 22% 4 of 23 1 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khabib Nurmagomedov 27 of 44 61% 25 of 42 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 9 1 of 1 24 of 34
Darrell Horcher 4 of 22 18% 2 of 18 1 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Khabib Nurmagomedov 48 of 61 78% 48 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 47 of 60
Darrell Horcher 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on Fox: Werdum vs. Browne · Apr 19, 2014
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 20 of 56 35% 40 of 76 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Rafael dos Anjos 0 36 of 97 37% 72 of 135 6 of 12 50% 0 0 9:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 10 of 32 31% 21 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael dos Anjos 0 8 of 35 22% 14 of 42 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:21
2 Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 5 of 14 35% 10 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael dos Anjos 0 18 of 37 48% 31 of 50 3 of 5 60% 0 0 3:58
3 Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 5 of 10 50% 9 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Rafael dos Anjos 0 10 of 25 40% 27 of 43 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khabib Nurmagomedov 20 of 56 35% 11 of 39 7 of 14 2 of 3 18 of 52 1 of 3 1 of 1
Rafael dos Anjos 36 of 97 37% 24 of 83 6 of 8 6 of 6 14 of 72 4 of 4 18 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khabib Nurmagomedov 10 of 32 31% 6 of 22 4 of 9 0 of 1 9 of 29 1 of 3 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 8 of 35 22% 4 of 29 2 of 4 2 of 2 6 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Khabib Nurmagomedov 5 of 14 35% 3 of 11 0 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1
Rafael dos Anjos 18 of 37 48% 10 of 29 4 of 4 4 of 4 6 of 24 2 of 2 10 of 11
3 Khabib Nurmagomedov 5 of 10 50% 2 of 6 3 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 10 of 25 40% 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 15 0 of 0 8 of 10
Rafael dos Anjos - Fight History
LOSS vs Geoff Neal
TKO (knee injury) R1 1:30 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Geoff Neal 1 18 of 30 60% 21 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Rafael dos Anjos 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Geoff Neal 1 18 of 30 60% 21 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Rafael dos Anjos 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Geoff Neal 18 of 30 60% 12 of 24 3 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 24 0 of 0 5 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 4 of 13 30% 2 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Geoff Neal 18 of 30 60% 12 of 24 3 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 24 0 of 0 5 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 4 of 13 30% 2 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Angelo picks Geoff Neal but is not confident enough to bet. He notes Neal is younger, has good takedown defense and hands, and should win if the fight stays standing. However, he acknowledges RDA could get takedowns and grind out a decision. He will leave this fight alone due to the risk.

Will leave this fight alone; no bet.
"I think Jeff Neil wins... but I just don't have the nuts to bet on him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Big Brady strongly favors Neal, calling it a bad matchup for RDA. He notes that RDA struggles at welterweight against bigger guys and that Neal has elite takedown defense (87%). He believes Neal is the much better striker with more power and that RDA won't be able to take him down. He predicts Neal wins by decision, stuffing takedowns and doing better work on the feet.

"give me Jeff Neil here I think he wins this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Cody leans toward Rafael dos Anjos as an underdog, noting that RDA's wrestling and cardio could neutralize Neal's striking. He points out that Neal has struggled against wrestlers like Neil Magny, and that RDA's takedown-heavy approach could frustrate Neal. However, Cody is hesitant because RDA is 40 and has lost to superior grapplers. He suggests a small play or pass.

"I feel like I'm leaning Rd but I feel like that's also a bad pick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Geoff Neal

Connor picks Neal, agreeing that RDA at welterweight is not the same bully. He notes that RDA's game relies on being a physical bully, which he can't do at welterweight, and that Neal is capable of putting together moments of offense that win rounds. Connor also mentions that RDA is almost 40 and has a lot of mileage.

"And that is kind of my core read here against Jeff Neil is that RDA might have a lot of success running his kind of game against Jeff Neil. But if I have to think who is capable of putting …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Daniel Vreeland picks Geoff Neal to win, citing significant advantages in size, speed, and youth. He notes that Neal has faced much larger opponents recently and that RDA is a smaller fighter who may struggle with Neal's reach and takedown defense. Vreeland acknowledges Neal's inconsistency but believes this is a favorable matchup.

"give me Jeff me"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Daniel Vreeland picks Neal, citing his size, youth, and recent competition against top welterweights. He notes that RDA's wrestling has dropped off significantly, giving up 19 takedowns in his last two fights. Vreeland believes Neal's speed and game plan will be too much for the aging RDA.

"give me the much bigger much younger hands of Steel Jeff Neil"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Jeff Fox also picks Neal, emphasizing RDA's declining wrestling. He notes that Neal has sneaky good wrestling and that RDA's takedown defense has worsened. Fox expects Neal to be faster on the feet and implement a better game plan.

higher than 64.5 significant strikes for Neal (Underdog fantasy pick)
"Jeff Neil gonna be faster on the feet going to put together a better game plan here uh I'll take him in this one"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Geoff Neal

Welterweight is not the best weight class for dos Anjos, and Neal should stop his takedowns and utilize his striking advantage. It wouldn't surprise me if Neal knocks dos Anjos out, but I lean with Neal winning on the scorecards.

Neal wins by decision (lean); possible knockout
"ultimately lean with Neil winning this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Paul picks Geoff Neal, believing his reach and boxing will keep the fight standing. He notes that RDA's wrestling has not been as effective at welterweight against bigger opponents. Paul thinks Neal can stuff takedowns and use his length to outpoint RDA. He is not highly confident but leans Neal.

"I will not be getting to RDA"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

The Guru picks Geoff Neal by TKO in the second round, arguing that Rafael dos Anjos at 39 is outmatched physically. He notes Neal's size, power, and takedown defense (citing the Belal Muhammad fight) will be too much for RDA. He believes RDA's only path is to brawl in the pocket, which favors Neal. The Guru predicts a vicious finish, possibly ending RDA's career.

TKO second round
"I'll say second round TKO for Geoff Neal potentially in the first though I can see a real nasty finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Geoff Neal

Zane picks Neal because RDA at welterweight is not the same relentless pressure fighter he was at lightweight; he's more reluctant to apply pressure and gets hit harder. Neal is a puncher who can keep his output up and win rounds, even if he gets stalled for one. Zane notes that RDA's wrestling is deteriorating and he's almost 40.

"So yeah, take it, Neil. Same. But, uh, it's a good fight. Like it is, it is a fight where if RDA can get Neil down, he might just be able to like, to sub him out, you know, he's …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Geoff Neal

Zane clearly favored Neal, describing the fight as a 'sad days fight' for RDA. He noted that RDA's game of physical bullying and pressure doesn't work at welterweight because guys are too big and hit too hard. Zane pointed out that RDA got crushed by the first shot and blew out his knee, calling it an old man way to lose. He praised Neal's performance but remains skeptical about Neal's title prospects.

"jeff neil hafel dos angeles another real sad days fight um i don't i've never liked rda at welter weight"
LOSS vs Mateusz Gamrot
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 57 of 102 55% 111 of 163 11 of 19 57% 0 0 7:01
Rafael dos Anjos 1 36 of 78 46% 39 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 19 of 34 55% 40 of 61 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:35
Rafael dos Anjos 1 11 of 19 57% 14 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 10 of 18 55% 28 of 36 5 of 9 55% 0 0 2:40
Rafael dos Anjos 0 12 of 25 48% 12 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
3 Mateusz Gamrot 0 28 of 50 56% 43 of 66 4 of 6 66% 0 0 1:46
Rafael dos Anjos 0 13 of 34 38% 13 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 57 of 102 55% 48 of 90 9 of 12 0 of 0 46 of 88 6 of 8 5 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 36 of 78 46% 24 of 61 5 of 9 7 of 8 26 of 67 7 of 8 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 19 of 34 55% 17 of 31 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 25 4 of 5 3 of 4
Rafael dos Anjos 11 of 19 57% 9 of 14 1 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 16 2 of 2 1 of 1
2 Mateusz Gamrot 10 of 18 55% 6 of 14 4 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 15 1 of 2 1 of 1
Rafael dos Anjos 12 of 25 48% 9 of 21 2 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 20 3 of 4 1 of 1
3 Mateusz Gamrot 28 of 50 56% 25 of 45 3 of 5 0 of 0 26 of 48 1 of 1 1 of 1
Rafael dos Anjos 13 of 34 38% 6 of 26 2 of 2 5 of 6 10 of 31 2 of 2 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Angelo is very confident in Mateusz Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling and pace. He believes RDA has no wrestling defense and will spend much of the fight on his back. He thinks Gamrot will shoot takedowns, grind, and win. He also mentions over 2.5 rounds as a good bet.

Over 2.5 rounds should be good.
"I'm very confident in gamrat here I think he is worth the price tag and uh we're going to see an age and evolution of the sport here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot to win by decision. He notes that RDA is 39 and has struggled with wrestling, and that Gamrot has the cardio to shoot many takedowns. He expects the striking to be competitive, but Gamrot's takedowns will seal each round.

win by decision
"I'm going gam Rod here gamr to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Cody thinks RDA is being priced as if he's completely washed, but he believes RDA is better at 155 and that the Luque loss was due to size. He thinks RDA's striking and jiu-jitsu make him competitive, and at plus money, he's worth a look.

"I think it's RDA is a dogger pass spot for me"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Daniel is confident Gamrot will win, citing his wrestling and low single takedowns. He notes RDA was outwrestled by Vicente Luque, who is not known for offensive wrestling, and expects Gamrot to dominate on the ground. However, he dislikes the minus 450 price and says he would only bet if the price improves.

"I got gamr here it's just this price is terrible if this price goes down a little bit I mean gamr should be I say should be a safe parlay"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Gamrot is a high-level wrestler who should be too strong, fast, and young for the aging dos Anjos. Dos Anjos has shown declining takedown defense, as seen in his loss to Vicente Luque where he was controlled for 11 minutes. Gamrot will likely get the fight to the ground and grind on dos Anjos, wearing him down. I expect Gamrot to win a decision, as finishing a durable veteran like dos Anjos is tough. The prop 'Gamrot by decision' is the best way to attack this fight without taking too much chalk.

Gamrot by decision, over 2.5 rounds
"gamrat more than worthy at minus 400 here I think he's going to be too strong too fast uh obviously younger uh and the better overall wrestler here which will allow him to get this fight to the ground and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul disagrees, pointing out that RDA has historically struggled against wrestlers and has been taken down repeatedly. He thinks Gamrot's chain wrestling, cardio, and durability will overwhelm RDA, who will likely lose the first two rounds and be unable to come back.

"I got to go with matus gamron"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing his superior technical wrestling, strength, and versatility compared to RDA. He notes the three-round format benefits Gamrot's pace, and that RDA is 39 and has talked about retirement. He also highlights that Gamrot trains with Dustin Poirier, which should help his preparation. He predicts Gamrot will ragdoll RDA and win a decision or late finish.

"I'm going to go with Matas gam over rapael Doos"
LOSS vs Vicente Luque
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vicente Luque 0 72 of 141 51% 138 of 221 8 of 11 72% 0 0 12:01
Rafael dos Anjos 0 66 of 136 48% 94 of 170 2 of 7 28% 1 0 3:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vicente Luque 0 16 of 32 50% 20 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:30
Rafael dos Anjos 0 17 of 37 45% 20 of 41 0 of 3 0% 1 0 1:20
2 Vicente Luque 0 11 of 26 42% 32 of 48 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:23
Rafael dos Anjos 0 10 of 22 45% 14 of 26 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:35
3 Vicente Luque 0 18 of 39 46% 27 of 49 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:51
Rafael dos Anjos 0 11 of 27 40% 12 of 29 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:53
4 Vicente Luque 0 10 of 18 55% 26 of 42 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:40
Rafael dos Anjos 0 9 of 15 60% 20 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
5 Vicente Luque 0 17 of 26 65% 33 of 45 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:37
Rafael dos Anjos 0 19 of 35 54% 28 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vicente Luque 72 of 141 51% 48 of 115 17 of 19 7 of 7 60 of 127 8 of 8 4 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 66 of 136 48% 42 of 108 19 of 23 5 of 5 38 of 105 26 of 27 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vicente Luque 16 of 32 50% 9 of 24 4 of 5 3 of 3 11 of 25 1 of 1 4 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 17 of 37 45% 8 of 26 6 of 8 3 of 3 9 of 28 8 of 9 0 of 0
2 Vicente Luque 11 of 26 42% 7 of 22 3 of 3 1 of 1 10 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 10 of 22 45% 4 of 16 5 of 5 1 of 1 3 of 15 7 of 7 0 of 0
3 Vicente Luque 18 of 39 46% 12 of 32 4 of 5 2 of 2 16 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 11 of 27 40% 8 of 23 3 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Vicente Luque 10 of 18 55% 6 of 14 4 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 9 of 15 60% 5 of 10 4 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 10 5 of 5 0 of 0
5 Vicente Luque 17 of 26 65% 14 of 23 2 of 2 1 of 1 16 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 19 of 35 54% 17 of 33 1 of 1 1 of 1 12 of 26 5 of 5 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Angelo picks dos Anjos, citing his grappling and takedowns as the key. He notes Luque has poor takedown defense (except against Belal) and dos Anjos is a high-level grappler. He already has a moneyline bet at -125.

Already bet moneyline at -125
"I have a money line on Rafael dos anos at minus 125"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Big Brady picks Vicente Luque to win by third-round knockout, but calls it the sketchiest fight on the card. He notes RDA's age (38) and size disadvantage at welterweight, but also Luque's recent knockout loss and brain hemorrhage concerns. He believes Luque's constant pressure and power will eventually catch RDA, but admits there are red flags on both sides. He says he wants nothing to do with the fight.

third round knockout
"I'll say Vicente Luce uh touches the chin of RDA at some point I'll say third round knockout for Vicente Luce but again a very very sketchy fight overall"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Cody picks Luque at plus money, arguing that dos Anjos is a former lightweight who has struggled at welterweight (2-5 in last 7). He notes Luque's strong get-up game against Belal Muhammad and believes dos Anjos won't be able to take him down consistently. He also mentions Luque's camp at Kill Cliff FC with Gilbert Burns preparing him for the wrestling. However, he acknowledges Luque's damage accumulation and brain hemorrhage history but still sees him edging out a five-round decision.

"I gotta go with Vincente Luca and the plus money and again I think that kill Cliff FC will have him ready and he'll be working with Gilbert Burns"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

James picks RDA over Luque, citing Luque's brutal knockout loss to Neal and subsequent brain issues as major negatives. He sees the striking as fairly even but gives RDA a grappling advantage, noting RDA can lean on takedowns and jiu-jitsu. James acknowledges Luque's size and age advantage but feels the unknowns around Luque's recovery tilt the fight toward RDA. He is not yet committed to betting, saying he will discuss with his team.

James mentions Luque's brain surgery as a concern, but no specific prop bets or odds are stated.
"I'm on RDA here... I think that on the feet it's fairly close... RDA has the grappling to lean on when things get tough."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Dos Anjos is durable and blends striking and grappling well. Luque is on a two-fight losing streak and had brain bleeding after his last KO. Dos Anjos should be able to mix in takedowns and combinations to outwork Luque over 25 minutes. Luque may have success striking, but dos Anjos's versatility will be too much.

dos Anjos by decision
"I like those sanyos throughout this fight I think he does good enough work over 25 minutes to get his hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Paul leans toward dos Anjos, citing his better cardio over five rounds and ability to mix in wrestling. He expresses concern about Luque's brain hemorrhage in 2022 and doesn't want to put money behind someone with that history. He acknowledges the fight is close and understands Cody's points about dos Anjos' wrestling not being as effective against bigger welterweights, but slightly favors RDA.

"ever so slightly I'm gonna lean to Javier De Los Angeles who I think has the better cardio over the course of five rounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

The MMA Guru picks Vicente Luque over Rafael dos Anjos, despite Luque's brain hemorrhage, assuming it was mild and he had a year off. He argues Luque is bigger, more powerful, has a better chin, and is hard to finish on the ground. He doubts RDA's ability to control Luque for five rounds and predicts Luque will finish RDA in round three by D'Arce choke.

Finish in round three by D'Arce choke
"I'm gonna go with Vicente UK getting a finish maybe drops RDA in round three and dash choke finishes him"
Submission (neck crank) R2 3:20 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael dos Anjos 0 14 of 29 48% 61 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Bryan Barberena 0 20 of 25 80% 36 of 41 4 of 6 66% 2 0 6:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael dos Anjos 0 9 of 19 47% 25 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bryan Barberena 0 16 of 20 80% 30 of 34 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:06
2 Rafael dos Anjos 0 5 of 10 50% 36 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Bryan Barberena 0 4 of 5 80% 6 of 7 3 of 4 75% 1 0 2:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael dos Anjos 14 of 29 48% 6 of 18 4 of 6 4 of 5 10 of 25 2 of 2 2 of 2
Bryan Barberena 20 of 25 80% 3 of 8 17 of 17 0 of 0 3 of 8 3 of 3 14 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael dos Anjos 9 of 19 47% 1 of 9 4 of 5 4 of 5 8 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bryan Barberena 16 of 20 80% 2 of 6 14 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 6 2 of 2 12 of 12
2 Rafael dos Anjos 5 of 10 50% 5 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 2
Bryan Barberena 4 of 5 80% 1 of 2 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Angelo picks Rafael dos Anjos, calling him the better fighter everywhere: more technical striking, much better grappling, higher fight IQ, and higher level of competition. He notes RDA is 38 and coming off a KO loss, but trusts him to grapple early and often. He thinks Barberena's 44% takedown defense and lack of one-punch KO power (except against Lawler) make RDA the pick.

"RDA is going to be the pick I trust him to Grapple early I trust him to Grapple often and I think he's just gonna grind out another RDA style win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Big Brady is extremely confident in RDA, citing a massive step down in competition and a favorable stylistic matchup. He notes Barberena's poor takedown defense (55%) and defensive irresponsibility, and RDA's advantage everywhere. He expects RDA to win however he wants, predicting a decision but noting a finish is possible.

RDA wins by decision
"this is RDA all day... horrible horrible terrible magic for barbarian... RDA should win this fight really however he wants"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Cody agrees RDA wins handily, citing his elite wrestling and Barberena's poor takedown defense. He notes RDA hasn't finished anyone recently but expects multiple takedowns and control. He prefers the over 2.5 takedowns prop over significant strikes.

over 2.5 takedowns for RDA on PrizePicks
"Rafael dosano's top taken material I agree with you and your assessment of it I think he wins this pretty handily"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Daniel Levi picks RDA to win by decision, mixing in takedowns. He acknowledges Barberena's durability and power (dropped Leon Edwards) but believes RDA's wrestling and blending of attacks will be too much. He is not interested in betting at the heavy price (-550) and calls it a pass.

RDA by decision; pass on betting due to price
"I'll pick our DIA to come out here and you know land some takedowns and win this decision but you know because of the price I'm out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

The host is very confident in dos Anjos, calling him a 'lock of the night' essentially. He believes dos Anjos is far superior and will mix his striking and takedowns to control Barberena. He notes Barberena's struggles against grapplers like Jason Witt. He expects dos Anjos to win by decision but says he wouldn't bat an eye at parlaying him at the price.

dos Anjos by decision; parlay piece
"I think dos Anjos you know I'd call him a lock of the night essentially but you would never want to bet a minus 540 straight up like that"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Paul sees RDA as dominant everywhere and expects a straightforward win. He notes Barberena's durability but thinks RDA can finish him, especially inside the distance. He mentions RDA's takedown-heavy style and Barberena's poor takedown defense.

RDA inside the distance at +175; over 2.5 takedowns for RDA on PrizePicks
"I feel like this is a should be pretty dominant uh on the side of RDA who is still fighting some of the best fights of his career currently and uh Bam Bam gets hit a ton rarely ever finished …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

The MMA Guru picks Rafael dos Anjos, noting Barberena struggles when opponents mix up attacks. He believes RDA's body work and leg kicks will be effective, and that Barberena's losses to Jason Witt and Randy Brown show vulnerability. He predicts RDA will win a clear decision.

dos Anjos by decision (30-27)
"I'm gonna go with Rafael dos anjos here over Brian barbarina"
LOSS vs Rafael Fiziev
KO (punches) R5 0:18 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael Fiziev 0 54 of 110 49% 90 of 162 2 of 16 12% 0 0 6:13
Rafael dos Anjos 1 64 of 159 40% 92 of 192 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael Fiziev 0 9 of 26 34% 22 of 40 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:08
Rafael dos Anjos 0 14 of 41 34% 17 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rafael Fiziev 0 19 of 36 52% 25 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:31
Rafael dos Anjos 0 17 of 44 38% 20 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:46
3 Rafael Fiziev 0 9 of 22 40% 13 of 32 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:46
Rafael dos Anjos 0 17 of 38 44% 24 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
4 Rafael Fiziev 0 15 of 23 65% 28 of 41 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:48
Rafael dos Anjos 0 12 of 27 44% 27 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:27
5 Rafael Fiziev 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael dos Anjos 1 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael Fiziev 54 of 110 49% 31 of 80 12 of 14 11 of 16 50 of 106 4 of 4 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 64 of 159 40% 32 of 102 27 of 52 5 of 5 62 of 155 1 of 2 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael Fiziev 9 of 26 34% 5 of 19 2 of 3 2 of 4 8 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 14 of 41 34% 8 of 26 6 of 15 0 of 0 14 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rafael Fiziev 19 of 36 52% 10 of 26 7 of 7 2 of 3 18 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 17 of 44 38% 6 of 27 9 of 15 2 of 2 17 of 43 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Rafael Fiziev 9 of 22 40% 6 of 16 2 of 3 1 of 3 9 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 17 of 38 44% 7 of 26 8 of 10 2 of 2 17 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Rafael Fiziev 15 of 23 65% 9 of 17 1 of 1 5 of 5 13 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 12 of 27 44% 7 of 17 4 of 9 1 of 1 11 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Rafael Fiziev 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 4 of 9 44% 4 of 6 0 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Angelo picks Rafael dos Anjos as a +170 underdog, citing his grappling, size advantage, cardio, and durability. He notes Fiziev is the better striker but has questionable cardio, especially in a 5-round fight. He points out that RDA has not lost in 6 years without being taken down, and Fiziev is unlikely to initiate takedowns. He already has a moneyline bet on RDA at +170.

Already has a moneyline bet on Rafael dos Anjos at +170.
"I like rafael dosanos I already got a money line bet on him at plus 170."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Big Brady picks Rafael dos Anjos, citing the five-round distance as a key factor. He notes that Fiziev has never seen the fourth or fifth round and has slowed down in third rounds of past fights, while RDA has proven cardio and experience in championship rounds. He expects RDA to mix in takedowns to test Fiziev's 95% takedown defense and cardio, potentially taking over in later rounds. He predicts a close decision win for RDA, acknowledging Fiziev could knock him out early.

"i'm gonna pick rda here to win this fight and win it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Cody believes Fiziev has the advantage in striking with better hands and kicks, and his takedown defense is strong. He thinks Fiziev's cardio is sufficient to secure early rounds and then survive if needed. He sees RDA as a gatekeeper and Fiziev as a rising contender, calling it a passing of the torch.

Mentions RDA over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks as a play.
"gotta go with raphael physique so when you're looking at the odds of course it doesn't look you know great like uh you got minus 225 and raphael's eve versus more of a proven commodity in rafael sanyos"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Jul 9, 2022 (fight day)

The host discusses the Fiziev vs RDA fight but does not place a bet on it. He acknowledges the value on RDA as an underdog and respects those who pick him, but he personally keeps the fight out of his betting card. He mentions having Fiziev in a parlay but does not elaborate on a clear pick. He notes that Fiziev is younger, faster, and stronger, but RDA is durable and could win by decision. Ultimately, he does not commit to a side.

"I have a bet on Johnson and I understand the value on our day like if you're seeing perceived value on RDA I'd absolutely agree with you which is why I'm not touching that fight but I still do think …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Paul thinks the price on Fiziev is too wide and expects to get RDA at a better price closer to fight time. He notes RDA's wrestling could be a factor, especially in a five-round fight, and that Fiziev's takedown defense hasn't been fully tested. He calls it a dogger pass situation but leans RDA.

Mentions RDA over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks as a play.
"i just think it's uh the price is a little bit too wide and it's continuing to grow so it's like i feel like by the time we get to fight time i'm gonna probably end up with an rda …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

The Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, believing RDA's style is tailor-made to lose to Fiziev. He notes Fiziev's body work, takedown defense, and youth advantage. He predicts Fiziev will win the first three rounds decisively, possibly a 4-1 decision, with RDA making a late resurgence but ultimately losing.

4-1 decision
"I've got to side with Rafael Fiziev here."
Decision (unanimous) (49–45, 49–44, 50–44) R5 5:00 · UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Mar 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael dos Anjos 1 149 of 286 52% 179 of 318 5 of 15 33% 0 0 13:22
Renato Moicano 0 88 of 172 51% 99 of 185 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael dos Anjos 0 22 of 34 64% 30 of 43 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:12
Renato Moicano 0 10 of 23 43% 12 of 25 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:30
2 Rafael dos Anjos 0 27 of 47 57% 32 of 52 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:44
Renato Moicano 0 15 of 29 51% 15 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rafael dos Anjos 1 40 of 84 47% 52 of 97 0 of 2 0% 0 0 3:05
Renato Moicano 0 15 of 25 60% 16 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Rafael dos Anjos 0 22 of 42 52% 27 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:53
Renato Moicano 0 12 of 22 54% 20 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Rafael dos Anjos 0 38 of 79 48% 38 of 79 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:28
Renato Moicano 0 36 of 73 49% 36 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael dos Anjos 149 of 286 52% 119 of 255 23 of 24 7 of 7 84 of 198 7 of 8 58 of 80
Renato Moicano 88 of 172 51% 77 of 158 8 of 11 3 of 3 81 of 164 7 of 7 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael dos Anjos 22 of 34 64% 17 of 29 5 of 5 0 of 0 6 of 17 3 of 3 13 of 14
Renato Moicano 10 of 23 43% 6 of 19 3 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 19 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Rafael dos Anjos 27 of 47 57% 19 of 39 7 of 7 1 of 1 17 of 37 3 of 3 7 of 7
Renato Moicano 15 of 29 51% 12 of 26 1 of 1 2 of 2 14 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Rafael dos Anjos 40 of 84 47% 34 of 77 4 of 5 2 of 2 17 of 45 0 of 1 23 of 38
Renato Moicano 15 of 25 60% 14 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0 15 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Rafael dos Anjos 22 of 42 52% 17 of 37 4 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 21 0 of 0 15 of 21
Renato Moicano 12 of 22 54% 12 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0 12 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 1
5 Rafael dos Anjos 38 of 79 48% 32 of 73 3 of 3 3 of 3 37 of 78 1 of 1 0 of 0
Renato Moicano 36 of 73 49% 33 of 67 3 of 6 0 of 0 34 of 71 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 25, 2022 (8 days before fight)

Angelo picks Fiziev but is hesitant, noting his brain says Fiziev but his heart says RDA. He highlights Fiziev's phenomenal striking and takedown defense, but questions his cardio over five rounds. He points out that RDA hasn't been finished in six years and only loses to wrestlers who take him down. He considers a plus 5.5 round bet on RDA.

considering over on rounds, plus 5.5 bet on RDA
"my brain is saying i need to go with fiz i have but my heart is saying my gut is saying that rda is going to win i've got to follow the brain"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Cody is torn because Moicano looked good on short notice against Hernandez, but the five-round nature favors RDA's experience and cardio. He notes RDA has fought 25 minutes many times and is a big lightweight who fought at welterweight, while Moicano has never gone five rounds and gassed in the Ortega fight. The catchweight of 160 also helps RDA. Cody ultimately flips to RDA but is hesitant due to the short-notice variable.

"i think uh i think rafael de san jose is the side"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Mar 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Renato Moicano

Daniel Levi picks Renato Moicano for the upset, but with hesitation. He notes that Moicano is the much bigger man with a size and reach advantage, and has good volume and a solid black belt. He points out that RDA has been taken down frequently in recent fights (by Usman, Colby, Chiesa, Leon) and that Moicano could have success in grappling exchanges. However, he conditions his pick on Moicano looking in shape at the weigh-in; if Moicano appears fat or out of shape, he would switch to RDA. He views this as a dog-or-pass situation and believes Moicano is on an upward trajectory.

"i actually will take henato mykano to come out here and get this upset"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

RDA is a tough veteran with excellent cardio and durability, while Moicano is taking the fight on four days' notice with travel and weight cut issues. Moicano will likely come out strong early but fade as the fight goes on. RDA's grappling and pressure will wear on Moicano, leading to a finish in the later rounds. The short notice and travel are huge red flags for Moicano.

RDA wins in round 4 (TKO), live betting opportunity on RDA if Moicano has early success
"i'm gonna call a finish for dos anos here i do think that he gets muy kano out of there let's call it round four"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Paul initially considered Moicano as a live underdog but after tape study flipped to RDA. He emphasizes RDA's five-round experience, size advantage (fought at 170), and clean camp versus Moicano's short notice and history of gassing. Paul points out Moicano's takedowns zap his cardio and he struggles striking backwards, while RDA mixes grappling and pace well. He calls it dog or pass but leans RDA.

"i think i am going to go with rda in this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Renato Moicano

The MMA Guru picks Renato Moicano (referred to as 'fizzyev') over Rafael dos Anjos, calling it a lock. He notes Moicano's speed advantage and RDA's decline at 155, especially his chin. He predicts Moicano will chew up RDA's legs with kicks in the first round, and when RDA pressures in the second, Moicano will catch him with a straight right for a TKO. He mentions RDA's only chance was in a five-rounder, but Moicano's patience and striking will prevail.

method: TKO, round: 2
"i'm going to go with raphael fizzyev second round ko early on in the second"
WIN vs Paul Felder
Decision (split) (47–48, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. dos Anjos · Nov 14, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael dos Anjos 0 98 of 190 51% 134 of 226 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:40
Paul Felder 0 92 of 162 56% 155 of 231 6 of 22 27% 0 0 14:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael dos Anjos 0 17 of 45 37% 17 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
Paul Felder 0 22 of 34 64% 27 of 41 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:06
2 Rafael dos Anjos 0 29 of 46 63% 35 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Felder 0 27 of 47 57% 31 of 51 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:43
3 Rafael dos Anjos 0 12 of 21 57% 21 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Paul Felder 0 13 of 18 72% 28 of 35 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:17
4 Rafael dos Anjos 0 26 of 55 47% 39 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:49
Paul Felder 0 19 of 41 46% 34 of 57 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:54
5 Rafael dos Anjos 0 14 of 23 60% 22 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Felder 0 11 of 22 50% 35 of 47 2 of 7 28% 0 0 4:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael dos Anjos 98 of 190 51% 64 of 147 20 of 29 14 of 14 76 of 161 21 of 28 1 of 1
Paul Felder 92 of 162 56% 53 of 113 35 of 45 4 of 4 61 of 125 26 of 29 5 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael dos Anjos 17 of 45 37% 8 of 33 5 of 8 4 of 4 16 of 43 1 of 2 0 of 0
Paul Felder 22 of 34 64% 13 of 24 9 of 10 0 of 0 17 of 28 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Rafael dos Anjos 29 of 46 63% 23 of 38 3 of 5 3 of 3 22 of 38 7 of 8 0 of 0
Paul Felder 27 of 47 57% 19 of 36 7 of 10 1 of 1 21 of 40 6 of 7 0 of 0
3 Rafael dos Anjos 12 of 21 57% 5 of 11 3 of 6 4 of 4 8 of 13 4 of 8 0 of 0
Paul Felder 13 of 18 72% 7 of 10 5 of 7 1 of 1 8 of 13 5 of 5 0 of 0
4 Rafael dos Anjos 26 of 55 47% 20 of 48 5 of 6 1 of 1 20 of 48 6 of 7 0 of 0
Paul Felder 19 of 41 46% 7 of 26 11 of 14 1 of 1 10 of 30 8 of 9 1 of 2
5 Rafael dos Anjos 14 of 23 60% 8 of 17 4 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 19 3 of 3 1 of 1
Paul Felder 11 of 22 50% 7 of 17 3 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 14 2 of 2 4 of 6
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Big Brady picks RDA because he had a full camp training for Islam Makhachev, which should help his wrestling and grappling against Felder, who took the fight on five days' notice. He notes RDA is the more technical striker with higher output, and Felder is dangerous but RDA has a solid chin. He expects RDA to mix in takedowns and grind out a decision, possibly a late finish.

RDA decision prop mentioned as a potential look; RDA as a parlay piece considered
"i'm gonna take rda to get it done um you know grind out paul felder to a decision i wouldn't be surprised if there's a late finish"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Daniel picks dos Anjos because he believes Felder's timing will be off due to lack of sparring and wrestling preparation on short notice. He notes dos Anjos has been training for a five-round fight against Islam Makhachev and is motivated dropping back to 155. He also points out that Felder historically struggles with volume and that dos Anjos can mix in takedowns, referencing Edson Barboza taking Felder down. He acknowledges Felder's durability and power but thinks dos Anjos will outwork him.

"i'm gonna roll with rafael dos anos as well"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

The host favors Rafael dos Anjos due to his experience in five-round fights, having gone to the fourth round or later in seven of his last nine five-round bouts. He believes dos Anjos's aggressive striking, leg kicks, and superior jiu-jitsu will overwhelm Paul Felder, who is taking the fight on six days' notice and has only one five-round fight experience. The host notes Felder's durability but expects dos Anjos to win via decision, possibly mixing in takedowns and ground control.

Host mentions dos Anjos via submission as a possibility but leans toward decision; also notes odds around -150 and says he might take a play on dos Anjos if the line sticks.
"i love dosanus here i think he gets ... i'm going to go with the safe side and i'll say dosan used to win this fight via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

The MMA Guru picks Rafael dos Anjos, citing Felder's short notice and difficult weight cut as major disadvantages. He believes dos Anjos will invest in body and leg kicks early, then finish Felder by exhaustion in the later rounds. He notes that dos Anjos has been training for this fight and is not a big lightweight, while Felder's reach advantage is neutralized by dos Anjos' similar reach. He also mentions that dos Anjos will be more confident on the feet without facing a wrestler.

Finish by exhaustion TKO in round 4 or 5; mentions dos Anjos has similar reach to Felder; notes Felder's terrible weight cuts even on full camp
"I'm gonna go with Rafael dos Anjos chewing up his legs, chewing up his body for three rounds, eventually getting himself a finish in the fourth or fifth or running away with an easy decision."
LOSS vs Michael Chiesa
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. dos Santos · Jan 25, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Chiesa 0 14 of 36 38% 23 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:42
Rafael dos Anjos 0 9 of 51 17% 54 of 107 6 of 8 75% 0 0 10:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Chiesa 0 4 of 9 44% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Rafael dos Anjos 0 1 of 12 8% 2 of 16 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:14
2 Michael Chiesa 0 8 of 24 33% 11 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:31
Rafael dos Anjos 0 7 of 34 20% 12 of 39 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:14
3 Michael Chiesa 0 2 of 3 66% 7 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael dos Anjos 0 1 of 5 20% 40 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Chiesa 14 of 36 38% 2 of 23 4 of 4 8 of 9 14 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 9 of 51 17% 6 of 45 2 of 5 1 of 1 9 of 49 0 of 1 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Chiesa 4 of 9 44% 1 of 6 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 1 of 12 8% 0 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Michael Chiesa 8 of 24 33% 0 of 15 2 of 2 6 of 7 8 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 7 of 34 20% 5 of 29 1 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 33 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Michael Chiesa 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael dos Anjos 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 24, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Daniel picks RDA to win by decision, acknowledging that Chiesa might give him some trouble early with his grappling and size. He notes that RDA has been taken down 28 times in his last four fights but believes RDA's superior striking and jiu-jitsu will prevail. He mentions that RDA is on the tail end of his career but still the better fighter.

by decision
"I'll take RDA by my decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 20, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa, emphasizing that the fight is three rounds, which favors Chiesa's ability to hold dos Anjos down for two rounds. He notes Chiesa is a large welterweight with a significant reach advantage, and that dos Anjos may come back in the third but it will be too late. He predicts Chiesa wins the first two rounds and loses the third, winning by decision.

decision
"I'm going with michael Chiesa here especially because it's a free round fight I think he's gonna hold Rafael dos Anjos down for two rounds... michael Chiesa gets the job done"