Career Averages - Khabib Nurmagomedov
Career Averages - Rafael dos Anjos
Khabib Nurmagomedov - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 26 of 80 | 32% | 26 of 80 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 0:55 |
| Justin Gaethje | 0 | 29 of 45 | 64% | 29 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 23 of 60 | 38% | 23 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Justin Gaethje | 0 | 23 of 36 | 63% | 23 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 3 of 20 | 15% | 3 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Justin Gaethje | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khabib Nurmagomedov | 26 of 80 | 32% | 18 of 72 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 25 of 79 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Justin Gaethje | 29 of 45 | 64% | 12 of 26 | 2 of 4 | 15 of 15 | 29 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 23 of 60 | 38% | 15 of 52 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Justin Gaethje | 23 of 36 | 63% | 10 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 11 | 23 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 3 of 20 | 15% | 3 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Gaethje | 6 of 9 | 66% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
We made it to the UFC 254 headliner, in a rare title unification matchup as champion Nurmagomedov (28-0, 12-0 UFC) looks to keep his spotless record intact against interim titleholder “The Highlight” Gaethje (22-2, 5-2 UFC). This lightweight thriller for all the marbles will draw the assignment of referee Jason Herzog, and nothing more needs to be said to introduce what we are about to see here. The two men touch gloves to check in this top-tier fight, and we’re off to the races. Both men keep their distance early, with Gaethje leaning low and starting out with an inside leg kick. Nurmagomedov does not throw anything nor does he set up anything, and Gaethje thinks about another leg kick and lands it hard. Gaethje scores a right hand, and Nurmagomedov counters him with an overhand right. Nurmagomedov leaps up with an uppercut, and Gaethje is well out of the way. Nurmagomedov lands a jab and gets caught with a leg kick, leading him to rush in to a clinch. Nurmagomedov cannot get hold of him, and Gaethje swings wildly with hooks. He cracks Nurmagomedov with a right hand, and he scores two more heavy leg kicks. Nurmagomedov is chasing after him with long punches, and Nurmagomedov lands a body kick. Nurmagomedov jabs and rushes forward with a knee. Gaethje avoids a right hand and kicks the lead leg. Gaethje fires up a head kick, and Nurmagomedov shrugs at him after it gets blocked. Gaethje wings another leg kick, and Nurmagomedov scores a left hand and a body kick. The Russian leaps in the air with a flying knee, and he sticks Gaethje a few times with a jab. A few more jabs disrupt Gaethje’s movement, and the American gets off a leg kick. Two big left hooks score for Nurmagomedov, and Gaethje cracks him back harder. Gaethje smashes his leg into the thigh, and he nails Nurmagomedov with a left hand. The Russian charges in to close the distance, and he hits a double leg takedown with 30 seconds to go. “The Eagle” climbs to mount with ease, and he rolls for an armbar with seconds to go. Gaethje punches the body a few times as he is unconcerned with submission danger, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Round 2
Nurmagomedov starts the round with a few jabs and a follow-up right hand. Gaethje jumps at him to respond, and the Russian scores a leg kick of his own. Gaethje is on the defensive as he backs away, and Nurmagomedov is on him pressing the action. Nurmagomedov takes a left hand behind the ear, and he rushes in for a takedown but gets stuffed. Gaethje lands a leg kick to make his opponent stumble, and when Nurmagomedov recovers, he hits a takedown effortlessly. “The Eagle” slices to mount like a hot knife through butter, attacking an arm-triangle submission in the blink of an eye. Nurmagomedov sets up a mounted triangle choke, and he rolls to his back as he threatens with a triangle armbar. Gaethje is stuck in the worst position of his life, and try as he might, he can’t pull himself free. Gaethje lifts him up to slam him down, and he gets no space so he starts tapping out. Herzog does not see the repeated taps as Nurmagomedov tries to inform him that Gaethje submitted. Instead, Gaethje goes out, and Herzog finally calls a stop to the fight. Khabib Nurmagomedov is now 29-0 as a professional, and in the process, he unified his belts and ties the record for the most championship defenses in UFC lightweight history.
When the fight is over, Nurmagomedov is overcome with emotion, letting everything out on his knees in the middle of the cage. As Gaethje comes to, he goes over to console his former foe. Dana White wraps the belt around Nurmagomedov's waist, and Nurmagomedov pulls the tape off his gloves and gets his corner to help him remove it. Nurmagomedov retires in the cage, thanking everything for supporting him, the UFC for signing him, and his family for being there for him. He promised his mother that this would be his last fight, and he leaves his gloves in the center of the Octagon. If this is truly his final UFC bout -- and judging by his post-fight speech, it is -- he leaves behind an incredible legacy with 13 victories under the UFC banner, as arguably the #1 pound-for-pound fighter and one of the best to ever compete in the sport. It's unlikely we'll see someone like him in MMA again.
The Official Result
Khabib Nurmagomedov def. Justin Gaethje R2 1:34 via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke)
Big Brady confidently picks Khabib Nurmagomedov, stating he has never picked against him and never will. He believes Khabib's relentless takedowns and pressure will drain Gaethje's cardio, and that Gaethje's wrestling background hasn't been tested against someone like Khabib. He predicts a fourth-round submission.
Daniel Levi acknowledges Gaethje's wrestling credentials and power, but ultimately leans with Khabib's consistent dominance and takedown machine style. He notes that Gaethje presents real threats with calf kicks and power, but Khabib's ability to set up takedowns with stand-up and his relentless pressure should prevail. He mentions that long-reigning champions sometimes lose when least expected, but he doesn't have the conviction to pick against Khabib.
The host picks Khabib Nurmagomedov confidently, citing his dominant wrestling, pressure, and ability to wear down opponents. He notes that Gaethje's leg kicks could be a factor but believes Khabib's grappling will be too much. He expects a fourth or fifth-round stoppage.
The MMA Guru picks Khabib Nurmagomedov to win by submission (rear-naked choke) in the first round. He notes that Gaethje's new style with more footwork will back him into the cage, and that Gaethje hates wrestling and hasn't used it in fights. He believes Gaethje will get back up a few times but eventually be taken down and submitted due to Khabib's superior grappling and Gaethje's lack of high-level ground experience.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 22 of 41 | 53% | 54 of 77 | 7 of 8 | 87% | 2 | 0 | 8:51 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 12 of 39 | 30% | 30 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 22 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 3:39 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 26 of 39 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:41 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 8 of 28 | 28% | 17 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khabib Nurmagomedov | 22 of 41 | 53% | 16 of 35 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 13 |
| Dustin Poirier | 12 of 39 | 30% | 5 of 26 | 2 of 7 | 5 of 6 | 12 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 8 of 12 | 66% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 9 |
| Dustin Poirier | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 13 of 26 | 50% | 9 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
| Dustin Poirier | 8 of 28 | 28% | 5 of 23 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Poirier | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 70 of 119 | 58% | 104 of 157 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 1 | 0 | 12:14 |
| Conor McGregor | 0 | 51 of 81 | 62% | 96 of 128 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 18 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:08 |
| Conor McGregor | 0 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 39 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 41 of 60 | 68% | 58 of 78 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:22 |
| Conor McGregor | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 7 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 15 of 37 | 40% | 17 of 39 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
| Conor McGregor | 0 | 34 of 52 | 65% | 44 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 11 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:57 |
| Conor McGregor | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khabib Nurmagomedov | 70 of 119 | 58% | 58 of 105 | 11 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 53 | 1 of 3 | 45 of 63 |
| Conor McGregor | 51 of 81 | 62% | 34 of 60 | 16 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 35 of 65 | 10 of 10 | 6 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 7 of 9 | 77% | 7 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 |
| Conor McGregor | 6 of 7 | 85% | 6 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | |
| 2 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 41 of 60 | 68% | 33 of 52 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 36 of 51 |
| Conor McGregor | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 15 of 37 | 40% | 12 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 34 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Conor McGregor | 34 of 52 | 65% | 22 of 39 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 43 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 7 of 13 | 53% | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Conor McGregor | 6 of 9 | 66% | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 134 of 304 | 44% | 172 of 352 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 10:33 |
| Al Iaquinta | 0 | 41 of 141 | 29% | 43 of 143 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 13 of 24 | 54% | 35 of 55 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:59 |
| Al Iaquinta | 0 | 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 25 of 40 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:00 |
| Al Iaquinta | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 37 of 87 | 42% | 37 of 87 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Al Iaquinta | 0 | 7 of 36 | 19% | 7 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 35 of 93 | 37% | 35 of 93 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Al Iaquinta | 0 | 15 of 45 | 33% | 15 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 30 of 66 | 45% | 40 of 77 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 2:34 |
| Al Iaquinta | 0 | 16 of 43 | 37% | 16 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khabib Nurmagomedov | 134 of 304 | 44% | 122 of 287 | 7 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 100 of 255 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 49 |
| Al Iaquinta | 41 of 141 | 29% | 27 of 117 | 11 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 41 of 141 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 13 of 24 | 54% | 12 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 21 |
| Al Iaquinta | 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 19 of 34 | 55% | 17 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 22 |
| Al Iaquinta | 3 of 9 | 33% | 0 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 37 of 87 | 42% | 31 of 78 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 37 of 87 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Al Iaquinta | 7 of 36 | 19% | 4 of 29 | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 35 of 93 | 37% | 32 of 89 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 35 of 93 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Al Iaquinta | 15 of 45 | 33% | 12 of 40 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 15 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 30 of 66 | 45% | 30 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Al Iaquinta | 16 of 43 | 37% | 11 of 35 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 89 of 177 | 50% | 154 of 246 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 10:31 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 25 of 76 | 32% | 25 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 36 of 68 | 52% | 50 of 83 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:43 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 31 of 60 | 51% | 59 of 89 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 3:28 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 9 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 22 of 49 | 44% | 45 of 74 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:20 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 6 of 31 | 19% | 6 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khabib Nurmagomedov | 89 of 177 | 50% | 77 of 162 | 8 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 32 of 96 | 2 of 3 | 55 of 78 |
| Edson Barboza | 25 of 76 | 32% | 6 of 47 | 11 of 19 | 8 of 10 | 23 of 74 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 36 of 68 | 52% | 31 of 63 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 46 |
| Edson Barboza | 10 of 19 | 52% | 0 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 31 of 60 | 51% | 26 of 53 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 17 |
| Edson Barboza | 9 of 26 | 34% | 4 of 17 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 22 of 49 | 44% | 20 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 15 |
| Edson Barboza | 6 of 31 | 19% | 2 of 24 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 94 of 142 | 66% | 140 of 190 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 8:44 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 19 of 77 | 24% | 20 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 33 of 58 | 56% | 49 of 74 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:03 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 16 of 52 | 30% | 16 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 49 of 69 | 71% | 73 of 95 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:35 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 1 of 20 | 5% | 1 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 12 of 15 | 80% | 18 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:06 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khabib Nurmagomedov | 94 of 142 | 66% | 93 of 141 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 88 of 120 |
| Michael Johnson | 19 of 77 | 24% | 9 of 51 | 7 of 21 | 3 of 5 | 19 of 77 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 33 of 58 | 56% | 32 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 52 |
| Michael Johnson | 16 of 52 | 30% | 7 of 32 | 6 of 16 | 3 of 4 | 16 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 49 of 69 | 71% | 49 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 45 of 57 |
| Michael Johnson | 1 of 20 | 5% | 1 of 15 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 12 of 15 | 80% | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 11 |
| Michael Johnson | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 75 of 105 | 71% | 107 of 139 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 5:33 |
| Darrell Horcher | 0 | 6 of 27 | 22% | 18 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 27 of 44 | 61% | 33 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 |
| Darrell Horcher | 0 | 4 of 22 | 18% | 12 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 48 of 61 | 78% | 74 of 88 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:12 |
| Darrell Horcher | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khabib Nurmagomedov | 75 of 105 | 71% | 73 of 103 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 71 of 94 |
| Darrell Horcher | 6 of 27 | 22% | 4 of 23 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 27 of 44 | 61% | 25 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 34 |
| Darrell Horcher | 4 of 22 | 18% | 2 of 18 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 48 of 61 | 78% | 48 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 47 of 60 |
| Darrell Horcher | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 20 of 56 | 35% | 40 of 76 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 36 of 97 | 37% | 72 of 135 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 9:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 10 of 32 | 31% | 21 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 8 of 35 | 22% | 14 of 42 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 | |
| 2 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 18 of 37 | 48% | 31 of 50 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 3:58 | |
| 3 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 27 of 43 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:28 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khabib Nurmagomedov | 20 of 56 | 35% | 11 of 39 | 7 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 18 of 52 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 36 of 97 | 37% | 24 of 83 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 14 of 72 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 10 of 32 | 31% | 6 of 22 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 29 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 8 of 35 | 22% | 4 of 29 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 5 of 14 | 35% | 3 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 18 of 37 | 48% | 10 of 29 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 11 | |
| 3 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | 5 of 10 | 50% | 2 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 10 of 25 | 40% | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 10 |
Rafael dos Anjos - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Neal | 1 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 21 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geoff Neal | 1 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 21 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Neal | 18 of 30 | 60% | 12 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 4 of 13 | 30% | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geoff Neal | 18 of 30 | 60% | 12 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 4 of 13 | 30% | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Geoff Neal but is not confident enough to bet. He notes Neal is younger, has good takedown defense and hands, and should win if the fight stays standing. However, he acknowledges RDA could get takedowns and grind out a decision. He will leave this fight alone due to the risk.
Big Brady strongly favors Neal, calling it a bad matchup for RDA. He notes that RDA struggles at welterweight against bigger guys and that Neal has elite takedown defense (87%). He believes Neal is the much better striker with more power and that RDA won't be able to take him down. He predicts Neal wins by decision, stuffing takedowns and doing better work on the feet.
Cody leans toward Rafael dos Anjos as an underdog, noting that RDA's wrestling and cardio could neutralize Neal's striking. He points out that Neal has struggled against wrestlers like Neil Magny, and that RDA's takedown-heavy approach could frustrate Neal. However, Cody is hesitant because RDA is 40 and has lost to superior grapplers. He suggests a small play or pass.
Connor picks Neal, agreeing that RDA at welterweight is not the same bully. He notes that RDA's game relies on being a physical bully, which he can't do at welterweight, and that Neal is capable of putting together moments of offense that win rounds. Connor also mentions that RDA is almost 40 and has a lot of mileage.
Daniel Vreeland picks Geoff Neal to win, citing significant advantages in size, speed, and youth. He notes that Neal has faced much larger opponents recently and that RDA is a smaller fighter who may struggle with Neal's reach and takedown defense. Vreeland acknowledges Neal's inconsistency but believes this is a favorable matchup.
Daniel Vreeland picks Neal, citing his size, youth, and recent competition against top welterweights. He notes that RDA's wrestling has dropped off significantly, giving up 19 takedowns in his last two fights. Vreeland believes Neal's speed and game plan will be too much for the aging RDA.
Jeff Fox also picks Neal, emphasizing RDA's declining wrestling. He notes that Neal has sneaky good wrestling and that RDA's takedown defense has worsened. Fox expects Neal to be faster on the feet and implement a better game plan.
Welterweight is not the best weight class for dos Anjos, and Neal should stop his takedowns and utilize his striking advantage. It wouldn't surprise me if Neal knocks dos Anjos out, but I lean with Neal winning on the scorecards.
Paul picks Geoff Neal, believing his reach and boxing will keep the fight standing. He notes that RDA's wrestling has not been as effective at welterweight against bigger opponents. Paul thinks Neal can stuff takedowns and use his length to outpoint RDA. He is not highly confident but leans Neal.
The Guru picks Geoff Neal by TKO in the second round, arguing that Rafael dos Anjos at 39 is outmatched physically. He notes Neal's size, power, and takedown defense (citing the Belal Muhammad fight) will be too much for RDA. He believes RDA's only path is to brawl in the pocket, which favors Neal. The Guru predicts a vicious finish, possibly ending RDA's career.
Zane picks Neal because RDA at welterweight is not the same relentless pressure fighter he was at lightweight; he's more reluctant to apply pressure and gets hit harder. Neal is a puncher who can keep his output up and win rounds, even if he gets stalled for one. Zane notes that RDA's wrestling is deteriorating and he's almost 40.
Zane clearly favored Neal, describing the fight as a 'sad days fight' for RDA. He noted that RDA's game of physical bullying and pressure doesn't work at welterweight because guys are too big and hit too hard. Zane pointed out that RDA got crushed by the first shot and blew out his knee, calling it an old man way to lose. He praised Neal's performance but remains skeptical about Neal's title prospects.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 57 of 102 | 55% | 111 of 163 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 7:01 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 36 of 78 | 46% | 39 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 40 of 61 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 14 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 28 of 36 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 2:40 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 12 of 25 | 48% | 12 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 28 of 50 | 56% | 43 of 66 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:46 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 13 of 34 | 38% | 13 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 57 of 102 | 55% | 48 of 90 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 46 of 88 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 6 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 36 of 78 | 46% | 24 of 61 | 5 of 9 | 7 of 8 | 26 of 67 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 19 of 34 | 55% | 17 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 25 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 11 of 19 | 57% | 9 of 14 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 10 of 18 | 55% | 6 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 12 of 25 | 48% | 9 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Mateusz Gamrot | 28 of 50 | 56% | 25 of 45 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 13 of 34 | 38% | 6 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo is very confident in Mateusz Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling and pace. He believes RDA has no wrestling defense and will spend much of the fight on his back. He thinks Gamrot will shoot takedowns, grind, and win. He also mentions over 2.5 rounds as a good bet.
Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot to win by decision. He notes that RDA is 39 and has struggled with wrestling, and that Gamrot has the cardio to shoot many takedowns. He expects the striking to be competitive, but Gamrot's takedowns will seal each round.
Cody thinks RDA is being priced as if he's completely washed, but he believes RDA is better at 155 and that the Luque loss was due to size. He thinks RDA's striking and jiu-jitsu make him competitive, and at plus money, he's worth a look.
Daniel is confident Gamrot will win, citing his wrestling and low single takedowns. He notes RDA was outwrestled by Vicente Luque, who is not known for offensive wrestling, and expects Gamrot to dominate on the ground. However, he dislikes the minus 450 price and says he would only bet if the price improves.
Gamrot is a high-level wrestler who should be too strong, fast, and young for the aging dos Anjos. Dos Anjos has shown declining takedown defense, as seen in his loss to Vicente Luque where he was controlled for 11 minutes. Gamrot will likely get the fight to the ground and grind on dos Anjos, wearing him down. I expect Gamrot to win a decision, as finishing a durable veteran like dos Anjos is tough. The prop 'Gamrot by decision' is the best way to attack this fight without taking too much chalk.
Paul disagrees, pointing out that RDA has historically struggled against wrestlers and has been taken down repeatedly. He thinks Gamrot's chain wrestling, cardio, and durability will overwhelm RDA, who will likely lose the first two rounds and be unable to come back.
The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing his superior technical wrestling, strength, and versatility compared to RDA. He notes the three-round format benefits Gamrot's pace, and that RDA is 39 and has talked about retirement. He also highlights that Gamrot trains with Dustin Poirier, which should help his preparation. He predicts Gamrot will ragdoll RDA and win a decision or late finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 72 of 141 | 51% | 138 of 221 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 12:01 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 66 of 136 | 48% | 94 of 170 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 3:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 20 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 17 of 37 | 45% | 20 of 41 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:20 | |
| 2 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 11 of 26 | 42% | 32 of 48 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 14 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 | |
| 3 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 18 of 39 | 46% | 27 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:51 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 12 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 | |
| 4 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 26 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 9 of 15 | 60% | 20 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 5 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 17 of 26 | 65% | 33 of 45 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 28 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicente Luque | 72 of 141 | 51% | 48 of 115 | 17 of 19 | 7 of 7 | 60 of 127 | 8 of 8 | 4 of 6 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 66 of 136 | 48% | 42 of 108 | 19 of 23 | 5 of 5 | 38 of 105 | 26 of 27 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vicente Luque | 16 of 32 | 50% | 9 of 24 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 17 of 37 | 45% | 8 of 26 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 28 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Vicente Luque | 11 of 26 | 42% | 7 of 22 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 10 of 22 | 45% | 4 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 15 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Vicente Luque | 18 of 39 | 46% | 12 of 32 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 11 of 27 | 40% | 8 of 23 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Vicente Luque | 10 of 18 | 55% | 6 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 9 of 15 | 60% | 5 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Vicente Luque | 17 of 26 | 65% | 14 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 19 of 35 | 54% | 17 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 26 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 4 |
Angelo picks dos Anjos, citing his grappling and takedowns as the key. He notes Luque has poor takedown defense (except against Belal) and dos Anjos is a high-level grappler. He already has a moneyline bet at -125.
Big Brady picks Vicente Luque to win by third-round knockout, but calls it the sketchiest fight on the card. He notes RDA's age (38) and size disadvantage at welterweight, but also Luque's recent knockout loss and brain hemorrhage concerns. He believes Luque's constant pressure and power will eventually catch RDA, but admits there are red flags on both sides. He says he wants nothing to do with the fight.
Cody picks Luque at plus money, arguing that dos Anjos is a former lightweight who has struggled at welterweight (2-5 in last 7). He notes Luque's strong get-up game against Belal Muhammad and believes dos Anjos won't be able to take him down consistently. He also mentions Luque's camp at Kill Cliff FC with Gilbert Burns preparing him for the wrestling. However, he acknowledges Luque's damage accumulation and brain hemorrhage history but still sees him edging out a five-round decision.
James picks RDA over Luque, citing Luque's brutal knockout loss to Neal and subsequent brain issues as major negatives. He sees the striking as fairly even but gives RDA a grappling advantage, noting RDA can lean on takedowns and jiu-jitsu. James acknowledges Luque's size and age advantage but feels the unknowns around Luque's recovery tilt the fight toward RDA. He is not yet committed to betting, saying he will discuss with his team.
Dos Anjos is durable and blends striking and grappling well. Luque is on a two-fight losing streak and had brain bleeding after his last KO. Dos Anjos should be able to mix in takedowns and combinations to outwork Luque over 25 minutes. Luque may have success striking, but dos Anjos's versatility will be too much.
Paul leans toward dos Anjos, citing his better cardio over five rounds and ability to mix in wrestling. He expresses concern about Luque's brain hemorrhage in 2022 and doesn't want to put money behind someone with that history. He acknowledges the fight is close and understands Cody's points about dos Anjos' wrestling not being as effective against bigger welterweights, but slightly favors RDA.
The MMA Guru picks Vicente Luque over Rafael dos Anjos, despite Luque's brain hemorrhage, assuming it was mild and he had a year off. He argues Luque is bigger, more powerful, has a better chin, and is hard to finish on the ground. He doubts RDA's ability to control Luque for five rounds and predicts Luque will finish RDA in round three by D'Arce choke.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 14 of 29 | 48% | 61 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Bryan Barberena | 0 | 20 of 25 | 80% | 36 of 41 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 6:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 25 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bryan Barberena | 0 | 16 of 20 | 80% | 30 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 4:06 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 36 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Bryan Barberena | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 6 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 2:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 14 of 29 | 48% | 6 of 18 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 10 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Bryan Barberena | 20 of 25 | 80% | 3 of 8 | 17 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 14 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 9 of 19 | 47% | 1 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Bryan Barberena | 16 of 20 | 80% | 2 of 6 | 14 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 12 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Bryan Barberena | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Rafael dos Anjos, calling him the better fighter everywhere: more technical striking, much better grappling, higher fight IQ, and higher level of competition. He notes RDA is 38 and coming off a KO loss, but trusts him to grapple early and often. He thinks Barberena's 44% takedown defense and lack of one-punch KO power (except against Lawler) make RDA the pick.
Big Brady is extremely confident in RDA, citing a massive step down in competition and a favorable stylistic matchup. He notes Barberena's poor takedown defense (55%) and defensive irresponsibility, and RDA's advantage everywhere. He expects RDA to win however he wants, predicting a decision but noting a finish is possible.
Cody agrees RDA wins handily, citing his elite wrestling and Barberena's poor takedown defense. He notes RDA hasn't finished anyone recently but expects multiple takedowns and control. He prefers the over 2.5 takedowns prop over significant strikes.
Daniel Levi picks RDA to win by decision, mixing in takedowns. He acknowledges Barberena's durability and power (dropped Leon Edwards) but believes RDA's wrestling and blending of attacks will be too much. He is not interested in betting at the heavy price (-550) and calls it a pass.
The host is very confident in dos Anjos, calling him a 'lock of the night' essentially. He believes dos Anjos is far superior and will mix his striking and takedowns to control Barberena. He notes Barberena's struggles against grapplers like Jason Witt. He expects dos Anjos to win by decision but says he wouldn't bat an eye at parlaying him at the price.
Paul sees RDA as dominant everywhere and expects a straightforward win. He notes Barberena's durability but thinks RDA can finish him, especially inside the distance. He mentions RDA's takedown-heavy style and Barberena's poor takedown defense.
The MMA Guru picks Rafael dos Anjos, noting Barberena struggles when opponents mix up attacks. He believes RDA's body work and leg kicks will be effective, and that Barberena's losses to Jason Witt and Randy Brown show vulnerability. He predicts RDA will win a clear decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 54 of 110 | 49% | 90 of 162 | 2 of 16 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 6:13 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 64 of 159 | 40% | 92 of 192 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:59 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 22 of 40 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:08 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 14 of 41 | 34% | 17 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 25 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 17 of 44 | 38% | 20 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 3 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 9 of 22 | 40% | 13 of 32 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:46 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 17 of 38 | 44% | 24 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 4 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 15 of 23 | 65% | 28 of 41 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:48 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 12 of 27 | 44% | 27 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:27 | |
| 5 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Fiziev | 54 of 110 | 49% | 31 of 80 | 12 of 14 | 11 of 16 | 50 of 106 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 64 of 159 | 40% | 32 of 102 | 27 of 52 | 5 of 5 | 62 of 155 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Fiziev | 9 of 26 | 34% | 5 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 14 of 41 | 34% | 8 of 26 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafael Fiziev | 19 of 36 | 52% | 10 of 26 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 18 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 17 of 44 | 38% | 6 of 27 | 9 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rafael Fiziev | 9 of 22 | 40% | 6 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 17 of 38 | 44% | 7 of 26 | 8 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Rafael Fiziev | 15 of 23 | 65% | 9 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 12 of 27 | 44% | 7 of 17 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Rafael Fiziev | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Angelo picks Rafael dos Anjos as a +170 underdog, citing his grappling, size advantage, cardio, and durability. He notes Fiziev is the better striker but has questionable cardio, especially in a 5-round fight. He points out that RDA has not lost in 6 years without being taken down, and Fiziev is unlikely to initiate takedowns. He already has a moneyline bet on RDA at +170.
Big Brady picks Rafael dos Anjos, citing the five-round distance as a key factor. He notes that Fiziev has never seen the fourth or fifth round and has slowed down in third rounds of past fights, while RDA has proven cardio and experience in championship rounds. He expects RDA to mix in takedowns to test Fiziev's 95% takedown defense and cardio, potentially taking over in later rounds. He predicts a close decision win for RDA, acknowledging Fiziev could knock him out early.
Cody believes Fiziev has the advantage in striking with better hands and kicks, and his takedown defense is strong. He thinks Fiziev's cardio is sufficient to secure early rounds and then survive if needed. He sees RDA as a gatekeeper and Fiziev as a rising contender, calling it a passing of the torch.
The host discusses the Fiziev vs RDA fight but does not place a bet on it. He acknowledges the value on RDA as an underdog and respects those who pick him, but he personally keeps the fight out of his betting card. He mentions having Fiziev in a parlay but does not elaborate on a clear pick. He notes that Fiziev is younger, faster, and stronger, but RDA is durable and could win by decision. Ultimately, he does not commit to a side.
Paul thinks the price on Fiziev is too wide and expects to get RDA at a better price closer to fight time. He notes RDA's wrestling could be a factor, especially in a five-round fight, and that Fiziev's takedown defense hasn't been fully tested. He calls it a dogger pass situation but leans RDA.
The Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, believing RDA's style is tailor-made to lose to Fiziev. He notes Fiziev's body work, takedown defense, and youth advantage. He predicts Fiziev will win the first three rounds decisively, possibly a 4-1 decision, with RDA making a late resurgence but ultimately losing.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 149 of 286 | 52% | 179 of 318 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 13:22 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 88 of 172 | 51% | 99 of 185 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 22 of 34 | 64% | 30 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:12 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 10 of 23 | 43% | 12 of 25 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 27 of 47 | 57% | 32 of 52 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 40 of 84 | 47% | 52 of 97 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:05 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 15 of 25 | 60% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 27 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:53 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 20 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 38 of 79 | 48% | 38 of 79 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 36 of 73 | 49% | 36 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 149 of 286 | 52% | 119 of 255 | 23 of 24 | 7 of 7 | 84 of 198 | 7 of 8 | 58 of 80 |
| Renato Moicano | 88 of 172 | 51% | 77 of 158 | 8 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 81 of 164 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 22 of 34 | 64% | 17 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 14 |
| Renato Moicano | 10 of 23 | 43% | 6 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 19 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 27 of 47 | 57% | 19 of 39 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 7 |
| Renato Moicano | 15 of 29 | 51% | 12 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rafael dos Anjos | 40 of 84 | 47% | 34 of 77 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 23 of 38 |
| Renato Moicano | 15 of 25 | 60% | 14 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Rafael dos Anjos | 22 of 42 | 52% | 17 of 37 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 21 |
| Renato Moicano | 12 of 22 | 54% | 12 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 5 | Rafael dos Anjos | 38 of 79 | 48% | 32 of 73 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 37 of 78 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Renato Moicano | 36 of 73 | 49% | 33 of 67 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 71 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Fiziev but is hesitant, noting his brain says Fiziev but his heart says RDA. He highlights Fiziev's phenomenal striking and takedown defense, but questions his cardio over five rounds. He points out that RDA hasn't been finished in six years and only loses to wrestlers who take him down. He considers a plus 5.5 round bet on RDA.
Cody is torn because Moicano looked good on short notice against Hernandez, but the five-round nature favors RDA's experience and cardio. He notes RDA has fought 25 minutes many times and is a big lightweight who fought at welterweight, while Moicano has never gone five rounds and gassed in the Ortega fight. The catchweight of 160 also helps RDA. Cody ultimately flips to RDA but is hesitant due to the short-notice variable.
Daniel Levi picks Renato Moicano for the upset, but with hesitation. He notes that Moicano is the much bigger man with a size and reach advantage, and has good volume and a solid black belt. He points out that RDA has been taken down frequently in recent fights (by Usman, Colby, Chiesa, Leon) and that Moicano could have success in grappling exchanges. However, he conditions his pick on Moicano looking in shape at the weigh-in; if Moicano appears fat or out of shape, he would switch to RDA. He views this as a dog-or-pass situation and believes Moicano is on an upward trajectory.
RDA is a tough veteran with excellent cardio and durability, while Moicano is taking the fight on four days' notice with travel and weight cut issues. Moicano will likely come out strong early but fade as the fight goes on. RDA's grappling and pressure will wear on Moicano, leading to a finish in the later rounds. The short notice and travel are huge red flags for Moicano.
Paul initially considered Moicano as a live underdog but after tape study flipped to RDA. He emphasizes RDA's five-round experience, size advantage (fought at 170), and clean camp versus Moicano's short notice and history of gassing. Paul points out Moicano's takedowns zap his cardio and he struggles striking backwards, while RDA mixes grappling and pace well. He calls it dog or pass but leans RDA.
The MMA Guru picks Renato Moicano (referred to as 'fizzyev') over Rafael dos Anjos, calling it a lock. He notes Moicano's speed advantage and RDA's decline at 155, especially his chin. He predicts Moicano will chew up RDA's legs with kicks in the first round, and when RDA pressures in the second, Moicano will catch him with a straight right for a TKO. He mentions RDA's only chance was in a five-rounder, but Moicano's patience and striking will prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 98 of 190 | 51% | 134 of 226 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:40 |
| Paul Felder | 0 | 92 of 162 | 56% | 155 of 231 | 6 of 22 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 14:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 17 of 45 | 37% | 17 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Paul Felder | 0 | 22 of 34 | 64% | 27 of 41 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:06 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 29 of 46 | 63% | 35 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Felder | 0 | 27 of 47 | 57% | 31 of 51 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 | |
| 3 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 21 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Paul Felder | 0 | 13 of 18 | 72% | 28 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:17 | |
| 4 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 26 of 55 | 47% | 39 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Paul Felder | 0 | 19 of 41 | 46% | 34 of 57 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:54 | |
| 5 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 22 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Felder | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 35 of 47 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 4:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 98 of 190 | 51% | 64 of 147 | 20 of 29 | 14 of 14 | 76 of 161 | 21 of 28 | 1 of 1 |
| Paul Felder | 92 of 162 | 56% | 53 of 113 | 35 of 45 | 4 of 4 | 61 of 125 | 26 of 29 | 5 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 17 of 45 | 37% | 8 of 33 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 16 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Felder | 22 of 34 | 64% | 13 of 24 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 28 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 29 of 46 | 63% | 23 of 38 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 38 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Felder | 27 of 47 | 57% | 19 of 36 | 7 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 40 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rafael dos Anjos | 12 of 21 | 57% | 5 of 11 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 13 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Felder | 13 of 18 | 72% | 7 of 10 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Rafael dos Anjos | 26 of 55 | 47% | 20 of 48 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 48 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Felder | 19 of 41 | 46% | 7 of 26 | 11 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 30 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 2 | |
| 5 | Rafael dos Anjos | 14 of 23 | 60% | 8 of 17 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Paul Felder | 11 of 22 | 50% | 7 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 |
Big Brady picks RDA because he had a full camp training for Islam Makhachev, which should help his wrestling and grappling against Felder, who took the fight on five days' notice. He notes RDA is the more technical striker with higher output, and Felder is dangerous but RDA has a solid chin. He expects RDA to mix in takedowns and grind out a decision, possibly a late finish.
Daniel picks dos Anjos because he believes Felder's timing will be off due to lack of sparring and wrestling preparation on short notice. He notes dos Anjos has been training for a five-round fight against Islam Makhachev and is motivated dropping back to 155. He also points out that Felder historically struggles with volume and that dos Anjos can mix in takedowns, referencing Edson Barboza taking Felder down. He acknowledges Felder's durability and power but thinks dos Anjos will outwork him.
The host favors Rafael dos Anjos due to his experience in five-round fights, having gone to the fourth round or later in seven of his last nine five-round bouts. He believes dos Anjos's aggressive striking, leg kicks, and superior jiu-jitsu will overwhelm Paul Felder, who is taking the fight on six days' notice and has only one five-round fight experience. The host notes Felder's durability but expects dos Anjos to win via decision, possibly mixing in takedowns and ground control.
The MMA Guru picks Rafael dos Anjos, citing Felder's short notice and difficult weight cut as major disadvantages. He believes dos Anjos will invest in body and leg kicks early, then finish Felder by exhaustion in the later rounds. He notes that dos Anjos has been training for this fight and is not a big lightweight, while Felder's reach advantage is neutralized by dos Anjos' similar reach. He also mentions that dos Anjos will be more confident on the feet without facing a wrestler.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 14 of 36 | 38% | 23 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 9 of 51 | 17% | 54 of 107 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 10:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 1 of 12 | 8% | 2 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:14 | |
| 2 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 8 of 24 | 33% | 11 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 7 of 34 | 20% | 12 of 39 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 | |
| 3 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 40 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 14 of 36 | 38% | 2 of 23 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 9 | 14 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 9 of 51 | 17% | 6 of 45 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 4 of 9 | 44% | 1 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 of 12 | 8% | 0 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Chiesa | 8 of 24 | 33% | 0 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 8 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 7 of 34 | 20% | 5 of 29 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michael Chiesa | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Daniel picks RDA to win by decision, acknowledging that Chiesa might give him some trouble early with his grappling and size. He notes that RDA has been taken down 28 times in his last four fights but believes RDA's superior striking and jiu-jitsu will prevail. He mentions that RDA is on the tail end of his career but still the better fighter.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa, emphasizing that the fight is three rounds, which favors Chiesa's ability to hold dos Anjos down for two rounds. He notes Chiesa is a large welterweight with a significant reach advantage, and that dos Anjos may come back in the third but it will be too late. He predicts Chiesa wins the first two rounds and loses the third, winning by decision.
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