UFC on Fox: Henderson vs. Thomson · Jan 25, 2014 · Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on Fox: Henderson vs. Thomson
Age 34
Height 6' 3"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 42
Height 6' 5"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 250 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Nikita Krylov
4.36 SLpM
54.0% Str. Acc.
2.59 SApM
47.0% Str. Def.
2.05 TD Avg
37.0% TD Acc.
53.0% TD Def.
1.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Walt Harris
3.05 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
3.33 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
0.29 TD Avg
28.0% TD Acc.
70.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Nikita Krylov - Fight History
SCHED vs Robert Whittaker
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
KO R3 4:57 · UFC 324 · Jan 24, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikita Krylov 1 72 of 137 52% 94 of 164 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:37
Modestas Bukauskas 0 40 of 108 37% 43 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikita Krylov 0 10 of 28 35% 25 of 48 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:58
Modestas Bukauskas 0 11 of 21 52% 13 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nikita Krylov 0 23 of 40 57% 30 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Modestas Bukauskas 0 11 of 32 34% 12 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:56
3 Nikita Krylov 1 39 of 69 56% 39 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Modestas Bukauskas 0 18 of 55 32% 18 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikita Krylov 72 of 137 52% 25 of 76 22 of 34 25 of 27 64 of 128 5 of 6 3 of 3
Modestas Bukauskas 40 of 108 37% 35 of 101 2 of 4 3 of 3 40 of 108 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikita Krylov 10 of 28 35% 3 of 17 1 of 5 6 of 6 10 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
Modestas Bukauskas 11 of 21 52% 11 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 11 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nikita Krylov 23 of 40 57% 8 of 20 8 of 13 7 of 7 19 of 36 4 of 4 0 of 0
Modestas Bukauskas 11 of 32 34% 8 of 28 2 of 3 1 of 1 11 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Nikita Krylov 39 of 69 56% 14 of 39 13 of 16 12 of 14 35 of 65 1 of 1 3 of 3
Modestas Bukauskas 18 of 55 32% 16 of 52 0 of 1 2 of 2 18 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Nikita Krylov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bukauskas (-165), Krylov (+130)

Round 1
A 205-pound smash-‘em-up derby keeps the action going, as the two men about to set foot in the cage are eying that new $25K finish bonus on top of the raised $100K for Fight of the Night and Performance of the Night. Krylov (30-11, 11-9 UFC) may be gunning for the latter of those two bonus checks, given his 93% stoppage rate with 23 of his 28 finishes coming in Round 1. “The Baltic Gladiator” Bukauskas (19-6, 7-4 UFC) will need to be on his best behavior when taking on the offensive force of the Ukrainian by way of Russia, and referee Marc Goddard will see to that. They touch gloves.
Krylov bounces back and forth on his heels, and he times a high kick that careens off the guard and a low kick that slaps off the front leg. When Krylov tosses out another naked leg kick, Bukauskas belts him with a pair of punches. Krylov gets away with another calf kick, and his subsequent offering to the midsection comes up short. Bukauskas winds up and hurls punches at his opponent, who backs straight up and is just out of range. Krylov attempts a single-leg entry, and he proceeds to press Bukauskas against the cage wall. Bukauskas looks to use a body lock when the first effort fails, and he works his foe’s knees while grinding on him. Krylov aims to slip his leg around Bukauskas’ to disrupt his balance, and he tackles the Lithuanian to the floor for a moment. Bukauskas bounces back up and gets pushed to the wall, and the crowd is not having it.
Krylov transitions from one takedown attempt to another, but Bukauskas is able to defend them and stay upright. Goddard claps for them to do more, and Krylov grabs hold of a single and lifts the leg up high. Bukauskas springs away and barely evades a head kick on the way out, and when he tries to engage, he gets caught with a right hand on the temple. Krylov peppers with kicks on the outside, and one of his low kicks is met with a blistering right hand that makes him take a quick count of his teeth. Bukauskas swats with a left and then a right hand, and Krylov springs into action with a kick and swinging fists that miss by a wide margin. Another Krylov blitz is met with counters, but he steels himself and shakes up “The Baltic Gladiator” with a right hand. Bukauskas retreats to gather his thoughts, and Krylov lets him off the hook as the two reach the round horn for the first time of any fight tonight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Krylov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Krylov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Krylov

Round 2
The 205ers touch gloves to get started, and it takes a couple seconds before Krylov unveils his first offensive tactic of a body kick. Bukauskas replies with a one-two, and they both toss out kicks at the same time to different targets. Bukauskas clips Krylov with a left hand on the way out, and fists quickly fly in an exchange at the center of the cage. Krylov works the body with a kick, and this draws out some hard swings from Bukauskas that drive him back. The Ukrainian ducks a huge haymaker and engages in a clinch with hopes of scoring a takedown, but Bukauskas is able to stifle them and spin him around against the wire. They jockey for position and trade knees up the middle, with neither man gaining the upper hand as they stay at it.
Krylov gets off a solid knee to the breadbasket and shoots, but the takedown hits a wall. Goddard asks for them to do more, and they answer by shoving one another away. Krylov’s mouthpiece falls out, and he quickly puts it back in as Bukauskas lets him do so. Krylov lumbers forward and smacks Bukauskas in the temple with a lead-leg head kick, and he skims his man on the temple with a looping left. Bukauskas sits down on a chopping kick, and he slides away from the trio of punches aimed at his mug. Krylov narrowly evades bombs chucked at his chin, although Bukauskas is able to get him a few times. Krylov strikes back, with his blows having an impact as Bukauskas’ left cheek is swelling up fast. Krylov ducks down for a looping right, and he dodges a big right hand and manages to kick the body on the way out. Bukauskas overswings his right hand and is blocked, with “The Baltic Gladiator” hunting for that home run blow. He manages to get off a spinning back kick to the body, and they trade hands until the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas

Round 3
The two reach the final round and share a fist bump before throwing caution to the wind. Both men lob huge hooks at one another, and they largely escape the damage from them thanks to just enough head movement. Krylov goes low to high with two kicks, and he steps in and blasts Bukauskas with a left hand. Krylov gets off another booming punch, and Bukauskas sits down on counters but largely comes up short. “The Miner” digs a kick to the midsection and is countered, but the damage is done as his kick connected. Bukauskas waits for the one big opening, and Krylov is dancing around the edges of range hitting him with anything he offers. Bukauskas snaps the head back with a solid left, but it is one-and-done before Krylov rushes at him to trade leather. Bukauskas clips him again, and Krylov pays no attention to the blow and plods ever forward. He works the body with a kick, and sways back from the looping counters.
Bukauskas lands a calf kick, and Krylov nods at him and doubles up on kicks from his rear leg. Bukauskas keeps his guard up to defend himself from the blows, and he winds up on a right hand that misses the mark. Krylov tanks two punches on the jaw and frustrates his foe with push kicks to the body. Krylov sneaks in a left hand while hurling heavy shots, and Bukauskas is left playing catch-up. They trade punches after Bukauskas absorbs a calf kick, and Bukauskas tries to take advantage of the strike by loading up on more. They miss, and the crowd boos. Krylov leads with a low kick into a jab, and he gets caught by a right hand and waves Bukauskas on for more. Bukauskas gives him more with a crisp left, and Krylov dances around and switches stances a few times. Krylov dodges a wheel kick and gets blazed with a right hand, and he is on a mission. Hearing the 10-second clapper, “The Miner” digs deep and unloads with a fire and fury while Bukauskas is overloading on his own strikes.
Krylov catches his man cleanly with a ferocious right hand that sets “The Baltic Gladiator” down and forces his eyes to roll around in his head. Bukauskas turns to try to recover, crawling to his knees to the fence, and Krylov races after him and batters him with destructive right hands. One particularly effective fist shuts Bukauskas’ lights out and his post arms give way, leading to Bukauskas collapsing on his face like a failed push-up.
Goddard sees that Bukauskas went out and rushes in to stop the fight, keeping the finish streak—and buzzer-beater pattern—alive today. It may have taken just about 15 minutes to get there, but Krylov registered a huge knockout after a close battle, his first since 2022 when he smoked Alexander Gustafsson.

The Official Result
Nikita Krylov def. Modestas Bukauskas R3 4:57 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas, trusting his takedown defense and power. He thinks Nikita Krylov is the better overall fighter but has a weak chin, and Bukauskas only needs one clean shot. He warns Bukauskas not to engage in grappling like he did against Paul Craig.

This is just a fun fight. You don't need to bet on everything. Just sit back, relax, enjoy.
"I'm going to take the more powerful striker over the guy with the failing chin. So Modesus is going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Big Brady thinks Krylov is washed, citing his age (33 but 41 fights), long layoff, and two recent KO losses where he looked old and hesitant. He notes Krylov has stopped grappling, which was his best attribute. Bukauskas has been improving, and Brady expects him to knock out Krylov in the second round.

Bukauskas by KO/TKO in round 2
"I'm taking the guy who's not completely washed and that's Modest Bukowskis. I'm going to take Bukowskis to knock out Krill."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Cody confidently picks Bukauskas, arguing that Krylov is washed after a two-year layoff and two first-round KO losses. He notes Bukauskas's defensive wrestling and cardio should allow him to survive the first round and take over. Cody believes Bukauskas's ring generalship and durability will be enough to edge out a win.

"I'm going to edge him out with Krylov. It's very much a question of is he done? And he's 33 years old. It's not really done by the numbers, but you know, Paul mentioned it two-year layoff and he's come …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Connor is sad about Krylov's decline, noting his chin is gone after two consecutive knockouts. He observes that Krylov looks panicked and flailing in recent fights, while Bukauskas has been improving, becoming more composed and taking opportunities. Connor believes Bukauskas's accuracy and incidental power could lead to a knockout, especially given Krylov's compromised durability.

"I got to take bakaskis. I hate to see it because when he was in his prime he was out there with like a high volume kicking game."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2026 (16 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Daniel Vreeland picks Modestas Bukauskas to win by knockout. He notes that Krylov has lost two straight by first-round KO and appears washed, while Bukauskas is on a hot streak and brimming with confidence. Vreeland believes Bukauskas is catching Krylov at the perfect time and will get the biggest win of his career.

"I think Bukasquez comes out here, gets the biggest win of his career, and for the first time becomes a ranked UFC light heavyweight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jan 14, 2026 (10 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

James picks Krylov as an underdog, believing the line is too wide due to recency bias. He notes Krylov's superior skill set and grappling, and that Bukauskas has struggled with grappling. He also mentions inside info that Bukauskas's training camp has been disrupted. However, he acknowledges Krylov's chin might be shot.

"I kind of feel like Kryle wins skill set for skill set here. And if he comes in with a good game plan with his chin not being completely paper or dust, then he has a good shot of winning …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 20, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

The host picks Bukauskas by knockout, believing his improved striking and defensive grappling will nullify Krylov's takedowns. He notes Krylov is on a two-fight losing streak and may be desperate, but Bukauskas's recent form and training with top heavyweights give him the edge. He loves the -140 line but has slight pause due to Bukauskas's past bonehead mistakes.

Bukauskas by knockout
"I love this line on Bukowskis. You know, he's made some bonehead mistakes in the past to make fights a little bit closer than they should be. So that kind of gives me a little bit of pause in terms …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Paul leans toward Modestas Bukauskas, citing Krylov's recent durability issues and poor form. He notes Bukauskas is a generalist who can outwork Krylov, especially if the fight goes past the first round. Paul is hesitant due to Bukauskas's wrestling vulnerability but believes Krylov's decline is real.

"I do tend to to lean towards Picowskis, but I'm a little bit hesitant because I think his wrestling is still there to be exploited."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

The MMA Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas, criticizing Nikita Krylov's charging style and chin. He notes Bukauskas's growing confidence and counter-striking ability, predicting a KO in round two after an initial scrap.

KO in round two
"I'm going to go with Modi by KO in round two."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that Krylov's chin is gone and he looks like he's swimming out there. He notes that Bukauskas is peaking at 31 and has become more accurate and composed. Zane also comments on Krylov's lack of confidence and panicked starts, which Bukauskas can exploit.

"He seems like he's starting the fight panicked. Which is bad. And just imagine how he's going to feel when he looks into medestus bakowskis's empty eyes."
LOSS vs Bogdan Guskov
KO R1 4:18 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder · Jul 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikita Krylov 0 16 of 34 47% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bogdan Guskov 1 23 of 43 53% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikita Krylov 0 16 of 34 47% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bogdan Guskov 1 23 of 43 53% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikita Krylov 16 of 34 47% 6 of 20 3 of 5 7 of 9 16 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bogdan Guskov 23 of 43 53% 20 of 40 1 of 1 2 of 2 11 of 26 0 of 0 12 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikita Krylov 16 of 34 47% 6 of 20 3 of 5 7 of 9 16 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bogdan Guskov 23 of 43 53% 20 of 40 1 of 1 2 of 2 11 of 26 0 of 0 12 of 17
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Angelo picks Nikita Krylov, citing his well-rounded skills, high fight IQ, and clear path to victory via takedowns. He notes Bogdan Guskov has power but showed wrestling holes in his last fight. He uses MMA math (Krylov beat Volkan, Volkan beat Guskov) and expects Krylov to wrestle. He will not bet on this fight.

No bet
"Nikita's going to be the pick because it's an obvious path forward and he is a very high fight IQ fighter. I'm not betting on this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Big Brady picks Nikita Krylov, citing a significant grappling advantage. He notes Guskov has been outgrappled by lesser fighters like Billy Elekana and Volkan Oezdemir, and believes Krylov will take him down and submit him easily. He worries about Krylov's durability and fight IQ but thinks if he wrestles, he wins. He predicts a first-round submission.

first round submission
"I got to go Krillof here. ... if he goes out there and gets takedowns, he should make this look quite easy."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Connor acknowledges Krylov's shaky confidence after the Reyes KO but believes Guskov's style is more manageable. He notes Guskov's poor takedown defense and Krylov's clear path to win via wrestling. He thinks Krylov will test his grappling early and avoid striking exchanges.

"I'll take Krylov, but I'm going to take Krylov too."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

This is a perfect matchup for Krylov to utilize his grapple-heavy approach, keep Guskov on his back, grind him out, and clearly win on the scorecards or even lock up a late submission.

decision or late submission
"I think this is a perfect match up for Krillof to go out there and utilize his grapple heavy approach and keep Guskov on his back, grind him out and clearly win this fight on the scorecards or even locking …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

The MMA Guru picks Bogdan Guskov, citing his patience, calmness, and ability to eat shots and break opponents. He criticizes Nikita Krylov for returning too soon after a KO loss and being too wild. He predicts an early TKO, possibly in round one or two, with multiple knockdowns.

TKO, round 1 or 2
"I'm going to go with Bogdan Guskov getting this one done against Nikita Krylov by TKO early."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Zane picks Krylov, noting that Guskov is vulnerable to wrestling and Krylov has the skills to exploit that. He sees the potential for disaster if Krylov hesitates, but believes the path to victory is clear via takedowns and ground control.

"Yeah, I mean, I'll take Krylov."
LOSS vs Dominick Reyes
KO R1 2:24 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikita Krylov 0 4 of 22 18% 4 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikita Krylov 0 4 of 22 18% 4 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikita Krylov 4 of 22 18% 3 of 16 1 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 8 of 17 47% 5 of 14 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikita Krylov 4 of 22 18% 3 of 16 1 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 8 of 17 47% 5 of 14 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Connor picks Krylov, agreeing with Zane that Krylov's chain wrestling and durability are key. He notes that Reyes has shown good basic takedown defense but has not faced a wrestler who chains attacks like Krylov. Connor also points out that Krylov's approach of putting opponents on one leg and making them hop is effective against bigger fighters. He acknowledges that if Reyes can stuff the first few takedowns, he could hurt Krylov, but believes Krylov's pressure will eventually pay off.

"I think I have to pick Nikita Crowe. Because two, the other thing that I'm looking at then too is not only has Krylov not been knocked out, but how many takedowns does Krylov go for? Really? And dozens? The …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Dominick Reyes

Daniel Levi notes that Dominick Reyes got back on track with a knockout 2 minutes and 24 seconds into round one. He describes Nikita Krylov as a wild man with a karate style that runs forward, which allowed Reyes to counter him. He is happy for Reyes' comeback story.

"Dominic Ray has got back on track in an emphatic fashion. You know, knockout 2 minutes and 24 seconds into round one."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Apr 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Lucrative James leans towards Nikita Krylov, citing his durability, pace, and ability to break opponents. He thinks Krylov's hurricane style and wrestling pressure will wear down Reyes. He acknowledges Reyes' power and step-back left hand but believes Krylov's chin and volume will be too much. He notes that Reyes has been knocked out multiple times, while Krylov has shown better durability. He says it's a close fight and he wouldn't lay juice on Krylov, but if forced to pick, he sides with Krylov inside the distance.

He predicts Krylov wins inside the distance.
"I'm going to side with Kryov here. I'll say he gets it done inside the distance."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Zane picks Krylov, citing his relentless chain wrestling and ability to overwhelm opponents with volume. He notes that Reyes has good first-layer takedown defense but has rarely faced a wrestler who chains attacks like Krylov. Zane also points out that Krylov has never been knocked out, only submitted, and that Reyes lacks the submission threat to finish him on the ground. He believes Krylov's wrestling pressure will be too much for Reyes to handle over three rounds.

"I think I have to pick Nikita Crowe. Because two, the other thing that I'm looking at then too is not only has Krylov not been knocked out, but how many takedowns does Krylov go for? Really? And dozens? The …"
WIN vs Ryan Spann
Submission (triangle choke) R1 3:38 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikita Krylov 0 7 of 12 58% 24 of 31 2 of 2 100% 2 2 2:39
Ryan Spann 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 1 of 2 50% 1 2 0:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikita Krylov 0 7 of 12 58% 24 of 31 2 of 2 100% 2 2 2:39
Ryan Spann 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 1 of 2 50% 1 2 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikita Krylov 7 of 12 58% 2 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 3 3 of 7 3 of 4 1 of 1
Ryan Spann 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikita Krylov 7 of 12 58% 2 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 3 3 of 7 3 of 4 1 of 1
Ryan Spann 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Nikita Krylov vs. Ryan Spann
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Krylov (-170), Spann (+145)

Round 1
Two weeks later than expected, fans in the building should soon be treated to an all-action slugfest in what was supposed to be the UFC Vegas 70 headliner. A combined 38 first-round finishes have come between Krylov (29-9, 10-7 UFC) and Spann (21-7, 7-2 UFC), with stellar stoppage rates of 93% for the former and 86% for the Texan. Referee Herb Dean better buckle up for this one, although he is able to take solace knowing it is still a matchup without any bad blood. With the cancelation a few weeks ago, this is no longer taking place at light heavyweight, and instead at 215 pounds. Fists are bumped before they throw down, and when they do, it should be one heck of a show. Spann reaches out with an early jab as Krylov kicks, and Spann follows it with a few punches that knock Krylov around. Krylov gains space after bouncing off the fence, and he pops Spann with a right hand to wobble the Texan’s legs. Krylov advances to try to keep swinging, and he ends up clinched up with his opponent. Spann throws Krylov down to the mat, and he lands on top and starts fishing for a submission. Krylov sits up and finds his neck in submission danger, but he shucks off the first guillotine choke try as Spann switches to a brabo choke. Krylov stays patient, and Spann adjusts his head and settles down with another guillotine. “The Miner” digs through the pain and discomfort to yank his neck free, and the two fighters work their way back upright. Krylov holds Spann from behind and kicks him in the side of the face awkwardly, and he drags Spann down to the ground. Spann turns the tables to take Krylov down, and Spann winds up in a guillotine choke threat on the other side. Spann slides out the back door and frees himself, and he grabs a two-on-one wrist lock in an attempt to scramble out. Krylov stays tightly pressed to him and lands a few punches that might have hit the back of the head. Spann stands up and Krylov falls over, and Spann jumps on top of him to drop hammers down.
When Spann lands on top, Krylov wraps his legs up around his opponent's head to tighten up a triangle choke. Spann knows this time, there is no way out, as he fell right into a trap. “Superman” is forced to surrender to the choke, as the crowd is silenced at the sudden conclusion of the mighty grappling battle.
This gives the victor, who is not representing a country given the Russian invasion of his home country of Ukraine, his 30th pro win and 28th by stoppage.

The Official Result
Nikita Krylov def. Ryan Spann R1 3:38 via Submission (Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Angelo originally picked Nikita Krylov due to his wrestling and grinding ability, but the illness has significantly reduced his confidence. He still thinks Krylov will win if he is 100%, but he is no longer betting on him. He suggests a prop bet on Ryan Spann inside the distance (decision no action) because Spann is dangerous and the fight is now three rounds instead of five.

Ryan Spann inside the distance (decision no action) bet suggestion
"I'm no longer gonna bet on the key to cry love I've lost that much confidence him I think he probably still wins this... but the bet is definitely going to be Ryan span inside the distance decision no action"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Big Brady picks Ryan Spann for the slight upset, noting both fighters have durability issues. He questions Krylov's submission defense (submitted six times) and Spann's chin. Brady expects a first-round finish, predicting Spann locks up a guillotine when Krylov shoots for takedowns. He has low confidence but thinks someone gets finished early.

win by submission in round 1
"I'm gonna say span locks up locks up a submission here in the very first round hard to be confident in picking a winner in this fight but I'll take span for the slight upset"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Cody flips to Ryan Spann, citing Krylov's recent illness and the change from five rounds to three rounds. He thinks Spann's cardio is less of a concern in a three-round fight and notes Spann's submission threat. He believes the narrative of Krylov pulling out is enough to take the underdog.

"I think I'm flip-flopping over to Ryan span and again it's for like nothing other than just bad juju narrative by Nikita Karlov pulls out of a fight two weeks ago"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Connor picks Krylov, emphasizing his durability and relentless wrestling. He notes that Spann has poor takedown defense (83% takedown defense when excluding the Enrique fight) and that Krylov will keep shooting takedowns. Connor also points out that Krylov has never been knocked out and is crafty in finding ways to win. He expects Krylov to survive Spann's early power and take over with grappling.

Odds mentioned: Krylov opened -170, now -172; Spann opened +145, now +143.
"I think the only reason I would ever pick Ryan Spann in this fight is on the idea that he would knock Nikita Krylov out and that has never happened. ... Krylov, he wrestles everyone. That is really truly how …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

I think Krylov's improved grappling and takedown game will be key. He should drag Spann to the ground and work from top position, but he must be careful of Spann's guillotine. Spann's early power is a threat, but if Krylov survives the first round, he can take over. I expect a submission or TKO in the latter rounds. However, the early threat from Spann makes me hesitant to bet this fight.

Krylov inside the distance, by submission
"give me krilloff inside the distance let's say by submission but that early threat from Ryan span is going to be it's going to be a lot which will likely keep me off of this fight completely"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Paul picks Krylov but with less confidence than two weeks ago due to Krylov pulling out of the previous fight. He notes Krylov's improvements and path to victory via takedowns, but questions why Krylov pulled out. He thinks the -170 price is about right and calls it a stay-away.

"crylove is still the pick but I'm even less confident in it this week than I was last week or two weeks ago"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

The MMA Guru picks Nikita Krylov, citing Ryan Spann's weight cut issues and the fact that Spann missed weight in his last fight. He believes Krylov's illness may help him keep weight down, while Spann will struggle with two weight cuts back-to-back. He predicts Krylov will push the pace, take Spann down, and get a TKO or submission in the later rounds.

by TKO or submission, second or third round
"I'm gonna trust in Nikita krylov even though he was Ill been two weeks he's definitely recovered since then I think the illness will help him keep his weight down"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Zane picks Krylov, agreeing with Connor's assessment. He highlights Spann's terrible takedown defense and Krylov's durability. Zane notes that Krylov is not a clean technician but makes good decisions and is flexible. He expects Krylov to take Spann down and grind out a win, as Spann is chinny and tense.

Odds mentioned: Krylov opened -170, now -172; Spann opened +145, now +143.
"I got a numbers like that. I mean, even with the 50%, how do you not pick Krylov? You know, he's going to keep trying."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikita Krylov 0 42 of 81 51% 108 of 157 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:47
Volkan Oezdemir 0 57 of 121 47% 171 of 251 7 of 20 35% 1 0 9:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikita Krylov 0 27 of 50 54% 46 of 72 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:46
Volkan Oezdemir 0 26 of 58 44% 31 of 64 2 of 7 28% 1 0 2:02
2 Nikita Krylov 0 11 of 18 61% 42 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Volkan Oezdemir 0 11 of 27 40% 54 of 78 3 of 8 37% 0 0 3:28
3 Nikita Krylov 0 4 of 13 30% 20 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Volkan Oezdemir 0 20 of 36 55% 86 of 109 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikita Krylov 42 of 81 51% 35 of 72 3 of 3 4 of 6 34 of 68 5 of 9 3 of 4
Volkan Oezdemir 57 of 121 47% 42 of 100 12 of 18 3 of 3 38 of 93 12 of 17 7 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikita Krylov 27 of 50 54% 24 of 47 0 of 0 3 of 3 20 of 39 4 of 7 3 of 4
Volkan Oezdemir 26 of 58 44% 17 of 46 7 of 10 2 of 2 17 of 45 8 of 10 1 of 3
2 Nikita Krylov 11 of 18 61% 8 of 14 2 of 2 1 of 2 10 of 16 1 of 2 0 of 0
Volkan Oezdemir 11 of 27 40% 10 of 24 0 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 23 0 of 2 2 of 2
3 Nikita Krylov 4 of 13 30% 3 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 1 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Volkan Oezdemir 20 of 36 55% 15 of 30 5 of 6 0 of 0 12 of 25 4 of 5 4 of 6
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Big Brady picks Krylov to win by first-round knockout. He notes Oezdemir looked off in his last fight against Paul Craig and is getting older. Krylov has multiple paths to victory: knockout on the feet or submission on the ground, with 27 of 28 wins inside the distance. He believes Krylov's pressure and finishing ability will be too much for Oezdemir.

first round knockout
"I think krilloff to win by I'll say first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Cody picks Krylov, noting his fast starts and power. He thinks Krylov can catch Oezdemir early and finish him. Cody acknowledges Krylov's poor decisions and gas tank but believes Oezdemir's best days are behind him. He sees Krylov as the better fighter at this point.

"I will go with Nikki to cry"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Daniel Levi picks Nikita Krylov to win, believing Krylov is showing the best version of himself while Volkan Oezdemir is fizzling out. He notes Krylov's improved submission defense and well-rounded game, and that he performed well against top competition like Magomed Ankalaev. Levi thinks Oezdemir is a traditional kickboxer who has declined, while Krylov blends punches, kicks, and takedowns. He does not see much value in the line but picks Krylov.

"I just see uh Nikita Krill out coming out here winning this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Paul leans Oezdemir as an underdog, citing his takedown defense and experience. He notes that only Daniel Cormier has taken Oezdemir down more than once. Paul thinks Krylov's wrestling is overrated and that Oezdemir will make it a slow fight. He is not confident enough to bet but picks Oezdemir.

"I'm leaning towards Vulcan as an underdog in this spot"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

The MMA Guru picks Nikita Krylov over Volkan Oezdemir, despite Oezdemir's win over Paul Craig. He notes Krylov was dominating Craig before getting caught, while Oezdemir looked slow and tired. He highlights Krylov's reach advantage, head kicks, and momentum from a KO win, predicting a 30-27 unanimous decision.

"I'm going with Nikki to kryl off over volcano's DeMent"
KO (punches) R1 1:07 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Jul 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikita Krylov 2 26 of 44 59% 26 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Alexander Gustafsson 0 5 of 8 62% 5 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikita Krylov 2 26 of 44 59% 26 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Alexander Gustafsson 0 5 of 8 62% 5 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikita Krylov 26 of 44 59% 24 of 41 1 of 1 1 of 2 15 of 29 4 of 5 7 of 10
Alexander Gustafsson 5 of 8 62% 4 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikita Krylov 26 of 44 59% 24 of 41 1 of 1 1 of 2 15 of 29 4 of 5 7 of 10
Alexander Gustafsson 5 of 8 62% 4 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Angelo picks Nikita Krylov but is hesitant due to Gustafsson's two-year layoff and three-fight losing streak. He notes Krylov is well-rounded and has a good chin, but questions his fight IQ after the Paul Craig loss. He says the odds favoring Krylov are surprising and calls it a no-bet situation, expecting Gustafsson to look older and slower.

no bet
"nikita is the pick i would love if alexander augustine looked great though but i just don't see that happening"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Big Brady picks Nikita Krylov to win by finish (ground and pound or submission in round 2). He is hesitant due to question marks about Gustafsson's layoff and motivation. He notes Gustafsson hasn't won in five years and hasn't fought in two years. Krylov is more active and dangerous, but if Gustafsson shows up motivated, it's a different fight.

Krylov by finish in round 2
"give me krill off for those reasons give me krill off to win i will say like second round uh grounded pound or second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Gustafsson

Cody leans towards Alexander Gustafsson, citing that his losses are to top competition and he may have recaptured motivation after a two-year layoff. He notes Krylov has durability issues and tends to fade in later rounds. Cody thinks Gustafsson can use his mobility and grappling to neutralize Krylov and win a decision. He acknowledges there are many red flags but sees value in the underdog.

under 90.5 fantasy score for Krylov on PrizePicks
"i would classify it as a dogger pass so ever so slightly i'm i'm just going to jump into the unknown and go with gustafsson"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Daniel Levi confidently picks Nikita Krylov, arguing that Gustafsson is past his prime and has already retired once, saying he didn't have what it takes anymore. He notes that Krylov is only 30 and entering his prime, with a well-rounded game and a Kyokushin karate background. Levi acknowledges Krylov's occasional bonehead mistakes but believes he will outwork Gustafsson. He also mentions that he likes fading washed-up fighters and that Krylov is a motivated underdog in this spot.

Mentions he is looking to bet Krylov, implying a betting interest.
"i think nikita krillov is the guy who's been watching alexander gustafson his entire career and this is like a big motivating fight for him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Gustafsson

Gustafsson looks in phenomenal shape and has a big skill advantage over Krylov. His takedown defense is 83%. Krylov's wins are over lesser competition. If Gustafsson is even 70% of his peak, he wins handily. However, motivation is a question mark, so I'm passing on betting but predicting Gustafsson.

"I am going to make that switch I am going to go on the Customs inside"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Gustafsson

Paul picks Alexander Gustafsson at plus money, calling minus 200 on Krylov ridiculous. He notes Gustafsson has looked horrible recently but his losses are to elite fighters. Paul admits he doesn't have the courage to bet Gustafsson confidently and will wait for weigh-ins. He says he won't bet money on it.

"i'll pick gustafson for the purposes of the show because it's plus money and i think minus 200 on krylov is is kind of ridiculous"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

The MMA Guru picks Nikita Krylov to win by submission in the first or second round. He questions Gustafsson's reasons for returning and notes Krylov is underrated. Krylov put a pace on Ankalaev and has great stand-up. Gustafsson has poor ground game and has been submitted when taken down. Krylov will take him down and secure a submission.

first or second round submission
"i'm gonna swipe with nikita krylov getting this one done against alexander gustafsson second round first round rooney choke submission"
LOSS vs Paul Craig
Submission (triangle choke) R1 3:57 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · Mar 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paul Craig 0 19 of 25 76% 30 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:49
Nikita Krylov 0 2 of 3 66% 11 of 12 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paul Craig 0 19 of 25 76% 30 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:49
Nikita Krylov 0 2 of 3 66% 11 of 12 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paul Craig 19 of 25 76% 18 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 22
Nikita Krylov 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paul Craig 19 of 25 76% 18 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 22
Nikita Krylov 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Paul Craig

Angelo picks Paul Craig as an underdog, noting his incredible toughness and submission threat. He thinks Krylov is more well-rounded but less dangerous, and will likely win a decision if he fights perfectly. He expects Craig to withstand a beating and find a finish on the ground. He plans to bet on Paul Craig wins inside the distance (decision no action) at plus money.

bet: Paul Craig wins inside the distance (decision no action) at +200
"i like paul craig in the underdog spot and i think he can win this fight he is my underdog pick here but betting wise i will likely do a paul craig wins inside the distance decision no action bet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Big Brady picks Nikita Krylov to win by first-round knockout. He likes Krylov's knockout power and believes Paul Craig's chin is suspect. Brady notes that if the fight goes to the mat, Craig is dangerous with submissions, but he thinks Krylov can avoid the grappling and finish early. He also mentions Craig's talk of retirement as a potential factor.

first round knockout
"give me kriloff to win by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Cody picks Krylov but is hesitant, noting Krylov's tendency to make bad decisions and engage in grappling with submission experts. He thinks Krylov should win if he keeps it standing, but worries he might get caught. He prefers Craig by submission as a prop.

paul craig by submission plus 450
"krylov i guess is the pick but i don't love it i'm staying away from it like the plague"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Paul Craig

Daniel Levi picks Paul Craig by submission at +450, noting that Nikita Krylov has five career submission losses and a history of making bonehead mistakes on the mat. He believes Craig only needs one opportunity to snatch a submission, as seen against Jamal Hill. Levi acknowledges Krylov may win the minutes and has knockout potential, but at plus money, he's willing to bet on Craig's opportunistic submission game. He also mentions the hometown advantage for Craig in the UK.

Craig by submission +450
"craig by sub at uh plus 450 are you [ __ ] me right now plus 450 that's all that's craig's best value"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Krylov has power striking and good combinations, which should overwhelm Craig on the feet. However, five of Krylov's eight losses are by submission, a huge red flag against a submission specialist like Craig. Craig is dangerous off his back, constantly throwing up submissions. The fight likely ends inside the distance, but Krylov's striking advantage should lead to a knockout. I'm picking Krylov by KO, but the fight doesn't go to decision is my favorite bet.

Fight doesn't go to decision (parlay piece); Krylov by knockout
"Official prediction is Nikita Krylov by knockout but the fight doesn't go to the decision is probably something that I'll be parlaying."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Paul picks Krylov confidently, arguing that Krylov has fought elite competition and improved his takedown defense. He believes Krylov's striking is far superior and that Craig's wins are overrated. He thinks Krylov will win by KO if he fights smart.

"i just got to go with more probabilities he doesn't get caught and he probably smashes him out of here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

The Guru picks Nikita Krylov, arguing he is underrated and has better performances than Paul Craig. He notes Krylov held his own against Glover Teixeira and outgrappled Magomed Ankalaev in round one. He criticizes Craig's chin and mentions Craig's retirement talk. He predicts a first-round TKO on the feet, as Craig tends to go down when hit clean.

first round TKO
"i'm gonna go with nikita krylov... i'm gonna call a first round tko for nikita cried off here on the feet"
Walt Harris - Fight History
LOSS vs Marcin Tybura
TKO (punches) R1 4:06 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · Jun 05, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Tybura 0 23 of 40 57% 23 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Walt Harris 0 4 of 10 40% 59 of 71 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Tybura 0 23 of 40 57% 23 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Walt Harris 0 4 of 10 40% 59 of 71 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Tybura 23 of 40 57% 17 of 33 6 of 7 0 of 0 19 of 35 4 of 5 0 of 0
Walt Harris 4 of 10 40% 2 of 6 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Tybura 23 of 40 57% 17 of 33 6 of 7 0 of 0 19 of 35 4 of 5 0 of 0
Walt Harris 4 of 10 40% 2 of 6 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Big Brady thinks Tybura is the better fighter with more ways to win, including higher output on the feet and a superior ground game. He notes Harris has 100% finish rate by KO but poor cardio and a weak ground game. He believes Tybura can survive the early storm, take Harris down as he tires, and get a late finish. He predicts a third-round TKO for Tybura.

"i'll go with third round tko for martine tyburo"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 2, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Cody picks Tybura, agreeing with Paul. He notes Tybura's momentum and that Harris is hittable and has cardio issues. Cody expects Tybura to use body kicks and takedowns to wear Harris down. He mentions Harris's power is a threat but Tybura's chin has held up recently. Cody also likes the under 2.5 rounds.

under 2.5 rounds -125
"i like the under two and a half rounds minus 125. got my money already"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Daniel picks Tybura despite wanting to see Harris win. He notes that Tybura is in the best point of his career, has more ways to win (takedowns, clinch, grinding), and can mix in wrestling to tire Harris out. Daniel acknowledges Harris's first-round knockout power but believes if Harris doesn't finish early, Tybura will take over with his grappling and pressure. He also mentions that Tybura has been hurt in the first round before but has shown resilience. Daniel hopes he is wrong and would love to see Harris have his moment, but objectively he favors Tybura.

"i gotta go with tybura but i i hope i hope i'm dead wrong on this man"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Harris is a one-round fighter with poor cardio. Tybura has good body work and grappling. If Tybura survives the first round, he will take over and finish Harris in the second or third.

Tybura round 2 +600, Tybura round 3 +1000, under 2.5 rounds -125
"I'm going taiboro uh uh the props tyburn inside the distance uh tabora round two and round three"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 2, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Paul picks Tybura, noting his recent momentum and wrestling advantage. He expects Tybura to weather Harris's early power, then take over as Harris fades. Paul highlights Tybura's body work and takedowns, similar to the Greg Hardy fight. He acknowledges Harris's one-round KO power but believes Tybura can survive and win.

under 2.5 rounds -125 (already bet)
"i'm going to go with tie board i don't think the line's crazy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 30, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

The Guru picks Marcin Tybura, highlighting Harris's cardio issues shown in losses to Overeem and Volkov. He believes Tybura can survive Harris's early flurries and then take over with grappling as Harris gasses. He predicts Tybura will win by TKO in the second round via ground and pound, noting Tybura has improved defensively after previous KO losses.

TKO round 2, ground and pound
"i think taibura is going to get this one done by tko in the second round to ground and pound on a gassed out walt harris"
TKO (body kick and punches) R2 1:15 · UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Oct 24, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkov 0 45 of 73 61% 45 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Walt Harris 0 16 of 58 27% 16 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkov 0 39 of 64 60% 39 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Walt Harris 0 15 of 54 27% 15 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Volkov 0 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Walt Harris 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkov 45 of 73 61% 32 of 59 11 of 11 2 of 3 42 of 69 3 of 4 0 of 0
Walt Harris 16 of 58 27% 7 of 45 5 of 9 4 of 4 16 of 56 0 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkov 39 of 64 60% 27 of 51 10 of 10 2 of 3 36 of 60 3 of 4 0 of 0
Walt Harris 15 of 54 27% 6 of 41 5 of 9 4 of 4 15 of 52 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Alexander Volkov 6 of 9 66% 5 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Walt Harris 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Walt Harris vs. Alexander Volkov

Round 1
Up to heavyweight, former Bellator champ Volkov (31-8, 5-2 UFC) comes to blows with heavy-handed Harris (13-8, 1 NC; 6-7, 1 NC UFC). “Drago” posts 20 career knockouts on his ledger, but Harris maintains a 100 percent knockout rate in victory, so this one might not go the distance. Referee Lukasz Bosacki will take the reins on this potential slugfest, but there is a sporting glove touch before they get down to business. Volkov ducks a looping left hand as they both start throwing, and Harris flings a high kick that gets blocked. Volkov walks him down and gets jabbed to the body, and the two heavyweights trade stabbing kicks to the midsection. Harris swings and misses with lethal shots, and Volkov keeps his distance and slaps away a front kick. Harris gets clipped with a straight right as he walks in, and the two clasps hands when trying to find their range. “The Big Ticket” jabs to the body a few times and then throws up another high kick, but Volkov is the one to score with a jab and a left hand that rings Harris’ bell. Harris keeps handfighting and takes a leg kick, but loads up on a big right hand that barely misses. Volkov ducks and moves to return fire, and Harris’ chin holds up. Volkov jab at the body with a kick as he closes the distance, and Harris cracks him with a big right hand. Volkov keeps his composure and walks Harris down, landing strikes and blocking the winging hooks in time. Volkov continues to work front kicks to the body, and he slaps his shin off Harris’ calf. A right hand opens a small cut around Volkov’s right eye, and Harris lets loose a leg kick and a head kick that does not find the target. Volkov stalks him down and evades a left hand, and sees a right hook coming over the top. “Drago” blasts in the body and makes Harris double over, so the Russian charges at him and pours it on to search for a finish. Harris ducks down and tries to slam big hooks in the side of Volkov’s head, attempting to pull off what Scott Smith did to Pete “Drago” Sell with a body shot that led to a knockout. Volkov is wise to it, lets a few bounce off his shoulder, and ends the round with a few more strikes but cannot get the finish he is looking for.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Volkov

Round 2
The two big men clap hands to start the round, and Harris fakes a takedown to try to get off a big right hand, but the Russian sees it coming and stops it. Harris backs off and changes levels to pursue a takedown, and Volkov stuffs it without issue. Harris sticks out a few jabs, but Volkov greets him with a much cleaner right hand. Volkov pierces the midsection with a kick, and Harris doubles over in pain – the commentary team questions whether the strike was to the groin but it appeared to land square on the liver. Volkov senses that the finish is around the corner, and he rushes in to swarm him and force a stoppage. As “Drago” clubs Harris in the head and side with four or five punches, Bosacki calls a stop to the fight as Harris is no longer intelligently defending himself. This is an important win for Volkov, who bounces back from a tough loss with an impressive knockout win.

The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Walt Harris R2 1:15 via TKO (Body Kick and Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Big Brady is confident in Alexander Volkov, citing his technical striking, range management, and high output. He notes Harris is dangerous early but has low output and suspect cardio. He predicts a third-round knockout, but acknowledges Harris could win with an early KO.

third round knockout
"i'm pretty confident that alexander volkov is going to get the win i'm going to say third round knockout for volkov here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Oct 23, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Daniel Levi picks Volkov as a pure pick, citing his disciplined point-fighting style and height/reach advantage. He notes that Volkov should keep the fight on the outside and win a decision, but he is concerned about Volkov coming in 18 pounds heavier than his last fight (265 lbs), which could affect his movement. He also mentions that as a fan he hopes Harris wins, but stylistically Volkov is the safer pick.

Volkov came in 18 pounds heavier than the Curtis Blaydes fight, which is alarming for a mover; Harris weighed in at 254 lbs, his lightest since the Spitz fight
"my pure pick will be alexander volkov but just as a fan and emotionally i really hope all harris gets this done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

The host picks Alexander Volkov confidently, citing his reach, volume, and cardio advantage. He notes that Walt Harris is a one-round fighter with poor takedown defense and that Volkov will pick him apart from distance. He expects a third-round stoppage.

Volkov by TKO in round 3
"i'm personally i'm going to go with third-round stoppage"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov to win by late second or third round TKO. He notes that Volkov is more experienced (31-8 vs 13-8), has good takedown defense (shown against Curtis Blaydes), and will use front kicks to gas out Harris. He compares Harris unfavorably to Derrick Lewis, who struggled to land on Volkov for most of their fight.

late second or third round TKO
"i'm gonna go with alexander volkov getting the job done... by late second or third round tko"
TKO (punches) R2 3:00 · UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Harris · May 16, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alistair Overeem 1 68 of 85 80% 97 of 115 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:22
Walt Harris 1 25 of 48 52% 25 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alistair Overeem 0 27 of 33 81% 48 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:56
Walt Harris 1 24 of 42 57% 24 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:47
2 Alistair Overeem 1 41 of 52 78% 49 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:26
Walt Harris 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alistair Overeem 68 of 85 80% 58 of 75 8 of 8 2 of 2 7 of 10 1 of 1 60 of 74
Walt Harris 25 of 48 52% 19 of 41 6 of 7 0 of 0 6 of 19 1 of 3 18 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alistair Overeem 27 of 33 81% 21 of 27 5 of 5 1 of 1 3 of 4 1 of 1 23 of 28
Walt Harris 24 of 42 57% 18 of 36 6 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 13 1 of 3 18 of 26
2 Alistair Overeem 41 of 52 78% 37 of 48 3 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 6 0 of 0 37 of 46
Walt Harris 1 of 6 16% 1 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Walt Harris

Big Brady picks Walt Harris by first-round knockout, citing Overeem's diminished chin and Harris' power. He notes that Overeem is likely the better fighter overall but cannot be trusted due to his chin, which has been knocked out 13 times. He believes Harris will land one shot and finish the fight. He acknowledges that Overeem could win if he takes Harris down, but doubts his wrestling is good enough. He mentions the emotional motivation for Harris after his daughter's passing.

first-round knockout, fight ends inside distance -425, emotional motivation
"I'm gonna go with Walt Harris here... I think it takes one shot to knockout over him and I think Walt Harris has that shot one of the hardest hitters in the heavyweight division so I like Walt Harris to …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 16, 2020 (fight day)
Walt Harris

Daniel Levi picks Walt Harris via vicious knockout. He believes Harris has turned a corner, putting things together, and has the proper technique and power to put away Overeem. He notes that Overeem is the more skilled fighter but has a small margin for error and is in denial about his recent KO loss. Levi emphasizes that Harris should stay composed and not fight too emotionally.

vicious knockout
"I got Walt Harris via vicious knockout I think he is gonna have that moment I think he will touch the chin of Overeem"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 14, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Alistair Overeem

The host is torn but ultimately picks Overeem, citing his experience and ability to adjust after the Rozenstruik fight. He believes Overeem will be elusive, avoid Harris's early power, and take the fight to the ground for a TKO. He admits he's rooting for Harris due to his personal story but thinks Overeem's skills and tools will prevail.

Overeem by TKO in the third round
"I think I'm gonna go of Alistair Overeem win him by a second-round TKO I think he's gonna ground and pound Walt Harris"
KO (knee and punches) R1 0:12 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Edwards · Jul 20, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Walt Harris 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aleksei Oleinik 1 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Walt Harris 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aleksei Oleinik 1 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Walt Harris 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aleksei Oleinik 4 of 7 57% 2 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Walt Harris 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aleksei Oleinik 4 of 7 57% 2 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2
TKO (knees and punches) R1 0:50 · UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · May 04, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Walt Harris 1 17 of 28 60% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Serghei Spivac 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Walt Harris 1 17 of 28 60% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Serghei Spivac 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Walt Harris 17 of 28 60% 17 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 18 3 of 4 5 of 6
Serghei Spivac 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Walt Harris 17 of 28 60% 17 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 18 3 of 4 5 of 6
Serghei Spivac 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Andrei Arlovski
No Contest (overturned) R3 5:00 · UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · Dec 29, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Walt Harris 0 44 of 93 47% 48 of 97 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
Andrei Arlovski 0 24 of 93 25% 26 of 95 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Walt Harris 0 15 of 36 41% 17 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
Andrei Arlovski 0 13 of 40 32% 14 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
2 Walt Harris 0 17 of 28 60% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrei Arlovski 0 7 of 21 33% 8 of 22 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:18
3 Walt Harris 0 12 of 29 41% 14 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrei Arlovski 0 4 of 32 12% 4 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Walt Harris 44 of 93 47% 20 of 60 11 of 17 13 of 16 43 of 90 1 of 3 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 24 of 93 25% 13 of 72 11 of 20 0 of 1 21 of 85 3 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Walt Harris 15 of 36 41% 8 of 25 1 of 4 6 of 7 14 of 33 1 of 3 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 13 of 40 32% 8 of 30 5 of 9 0 of 1 10 of 34 3 of 6 0 of 0
2 Walt Harris 17 of 28 60% 7 of 17 5 of 5 5 of 6 17 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 7 of 21 33% 2 of 15 5 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Walt Harris 12 of 29 41% 5 of 18 5 of 8 2 of 3 12 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 4 of 32 12% 3 of 27 1 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
WIN vs Daniel Spitz
TKO (punches and elbows) R2 4:59 · UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · Jun 01, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Walt Harris 1 29 of 79 36% 30 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Daniel Spitz 0 17 of 42 40% 17 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Walt Harris 0 11 of 32 34% 11 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daniel Spitz 0 7 of 16 43% 7 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Walt Harris 1 18 of 47 38% 19 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Daniel Spitz 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Walt Harris 29 of 79 36% 19 of 61 6 of 14 4 of 4 18 of 66 2 of 2 9 of 11
Daniel Spitz 17 of 42 40% 1 of 17 5 of 13 11 of 12 17 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Walt Harris 11 of 32 34% 5 of 21 3 of 8 3 of 3 10 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
Daniel Spitz 7 of 16 43% 0 of 5 4 of 8 3 of 3 7 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Walt Harris 18 of 47 38% 14 of 40 3 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 35 1 of 1 9 of 11
Daniel Spitz 10 of 26 38% 1 of 12 1 of 5 8 of 9 10 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Mark Godbeer
DQ (illegal head kick) R1 4:29 · UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre · Nov 04, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mark Godbeer 0 21 of 38 55% 34 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:11
Walt Harris 0 3 of 15 20% 9 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mark Godbeer 0 21 of 38 55% 34 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:11
Walt Harris 0 3 of 15 20% 9 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mark Godbeer 21 of 38 55% 17 of 31 4 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 19 1 of 1 15 of 18
Walt Harris 3 of 15 20% 2 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 1 2 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mark Godbeer 21 of 38 55% 17 of 31 4 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 19 1 of 1 15 of 18
Walt Harris 3 of 15 20% 2 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 1 2 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0