UFC 141: Lesnar vs. Overeem · Dec 30, 2011 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 141: Lesnar vs. Overeem Next Fight
Age 41
Height 6' 0"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 43
Height 6' 1"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Nate Diaz
4.57 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
3.77 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
1.05 TD Avg
30.0% TD Acc.
41.0% TD Def.
1.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Donald Cerrone
4.41 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
4.48 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
1.16 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
73.0% TD Def.
1.2 Sub. Avg
Nate Diaz - Fight History
WIN vs Tony Ferguson
Submission (guillotine choke) R4 2:52 · UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Sep 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Diaz 0 101 of 217 46% 101 of 217 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Tony Ferguson 0 80 of 172 46% 80 of 172 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Diaz 0 22 of 51 43% 22 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tony Ferguson 0 19 of 45 42% 19 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Nate Diaz 0 28 of 59 47% 28 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tony Ferguson 0 20 of 51 39% 20 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Nate Diaz 0 26 of 56 46% 26 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tony Ferguson 0 30 of 51 58% 30 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Nate Diaz 0 25 of 51 49% 25 of 51 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Tony Ferguson 0 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Diaz 101 of 217 46% 71 of 178 21 of 30 9 of 9 99 of 214 2 of 3 0 of 0
Tony Ferguson 80 of 172 46% 23 of 106 23 of 27 34 of 39 80 of 172 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Diaz 22 of 51 43% 12 of 36 6 of 11 4 of 4 22 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tony Ferguson 19 of 45 42% 5 of 28 7 of 8 7 of 9 19 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nate Diaz 28 of 59 47% 19 of 49 7 of 8 2 of 2 28 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tony Ferguson 20 of 51 39% 5 of 35 6 of 6 9 of 10 20 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Nate Diaz 26 of 56 46% 21 of 48 2 of 5 3 of 3 24 of 53 2 of 3 0 of 0
Tony Ferguson 30 of 51 58% 12 of 31 5 of 5 13 of 15 30 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Nate Diaz 25 of 51 49% 19 of 45 6 of 6 0 of 0 25 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tony Ferguson 11 of 25 44% 1 of 12 5 of 8 5 of 5 11 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Angelo picks Li Jingliang, citing Tony Ferguson's recent knockout and fast turnaround. He thinks Ferguson's chin is compromised and Jingliang's power and feints will confuse him. He notes Ferguson looked good against Chandler but was put out badly, and the three-month turnaround is too soon.

under on rounds (not specified which)
"I think he's blasted again and you know with that being said he did wrestle in college so he could do a grappling game plan but yeah we know him he's a warrior he's going to go out on his …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Big Brady picks Li Jingliang to win by first-round knockout, expressing concern for Tony Ferguson's durability after taking massive damage in recent fights. He notes Ferguson is 38, moving up in weight, and has been knocked out brutally by Chandler. He highlights Li's power, having knocked out tough fighters like Ponzinibbio and Salikhov, and predicts an early finish.

first round knockout
"I think the leech knocks out Tony Ferguson and I think he does it in the first or second round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Cody is confident that Khamzat Chimaev will win, noting that Chimaev is a massive favorite and that Nate Diaz is an undersized former 155-pounder. He believes Chimaev's size and strength will be too much, and that Diaz's jiu-jitsu won't be a factor. Cody mentions that the only value is in props like Chimaev over 1.5 takedowns, and he doesn't see Diaz winning even one out of ten times.

Chimaev over 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks; over 1.5 rounds at -165
"i don't even think nate diaz wins one out of ten times against times out chemical to be perfectly honest"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Daniel Levi picks Khamzat Chimaev to win, citing Chimaev's wrestling and power as key factors. He acknowledges Diaz's durability and ability to survive, but believes Chimaev's improvements and pacing will lead to victory. Levi notes that Diaz's age and scar tissue could be issues, and he expects Chimaev to dominate with ground and pound. He is not betting the moneyline due to the heavy juice, but is confident in Chimaev's win.

No value on moneyline; over/under not posted but curious about over 1.5 rounds due to Diaz's durability
"I gotta go with hamza chimayo up here... I'm just not sure if it's going to be a finish or if nate's going to last the full five which he is known for doing so."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Jacob picks Li Jingliang, emphasizing his feints and angles will give Ferguson PTSD. He thinks Ferguson will be gun-shy and react big to feints. He notes Ferguson could wrestle but doubts he will, and even if he does, Jingliang's takedown defense may hold. He calls it a bad matchup for Ferguson.

"It would be the most Tony Ferguson thing ever to win this fight for that reason I didn't put any money on Lee the odds are getting a little bit wide now but he's still gonna I mean it's Tony …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)

The host is extremely confident in Khamzat Chimaev, expecting him to take Nate Diaz down immediately and smash him on the ground. He dismisses Diaz's durability and jiu-jitsu, citing Chimaev's wrestling and size. He took under 1.5 rounds at +120 and suggests Chimaev round one at +165.

under 1.5 rounds (+120), Khamzat Chimaev round one (+165 to +180)
"Hamzat is going to get Nate down without any issues and then he's going to smash him on the mat."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul picks Chimaev to win but expresses concerns about his cardio and persona. He notes that Chimaev's fight with Gilbert Burns showed he is human and may have cardio issues, and that the five-round fight could favor Diaz if Chimaev tires. However, he believes Chimaev has learned from that fight and will hold down Diaz more easily. Paul also mentions the over 1.5 rounds and over on takedowns as props.

over 1.5 rounds; over on takedowns
"i think he wins i got the over one and a half and i've got the over on the takedowns just like you said"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2022 (fight day)
Tony Ferguson

The MMA Guru picks Tony Ferguson to win by 48-47 decision. He predicts Ferguson wins rounds 1, 2, and 4, while Diaz wins round 3, and round 5 is a stalemate. Ferguson chews up Diaz's leg and body with teeps and front kicks, lands elbows that cut Diaz, and freestyles with 360 body shots. Diaz has moments, including a takedown in round 3, but Ferguson scrambles out and lands more. The fight ends with both swinging, but Ferguson's output edges him the win.

decision 48-47
"I believe Tony Ferguson is going to win this fight 48-47"
LOSS vs Leon Edwards
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · Jun 12, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Leon Edwards 0 77 of 132 58% 83 of 139 4 of 5 80% 0 0 4:59
Nate Diaz 0 76 of 162 46% 130 of 223 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Leon Edwards 0 13 of 19 68% 14 of 20 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:32
Nate Diaz 0 10 of 23 43% 19 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Leon Edwards 0 17 of 30 56% 18 of 32 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:09
Nate Diaz 0 13 of 30 43% 29 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
3 Leon Edwards 0 13 of 15 86% 17 of 19 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:18
Nate Diaz 0 3 of 12 25% 20 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
4 Leon Edwards 0 18 of 36 50% 18 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nate Diaz 0 19 of 45 42% 20 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
5 Leon Edwards 0 16 of 32 50% 16 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nate Diaz 0 31 of 52 59% 42 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Leon Edwards 77 of 132 58% 48 of 97 6 of 12 23 of 23 68 of 118 4 of 6 5 of 8
Nate Diaz 76 of 162 46% 52 of 129 16 of 21 8 of 12 66 of 152 10 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Leon Edwards 13 of 19 68% 8 of 13 0 of 1 5 of 5 11 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 4
Nate Diaz 10 of 23 43% 4 of 15 4 of 4 2 of 4 9 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Leon Edwards 17 of 30 56% 10 of 21 1 of 3 6 of 6 16 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 1
Nate Diaz 13 of 30 43% 6 of 20 5 of 7 2 of 3 12 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Leon Edwards 13 of 15 86% 9 of 11 1 of 1 3 of 3 8 of 9 2 of 3 3 of 3
Nate Diaz 3 of 12 25% 1 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Leon Edwards 18 of 36 50% 10 of 26 2 of 4 6 of 6 17 of 34 1 of 2 0 of 0
Nate Diaz 19 of 45 42% 13 of 36 2 of 5 4 of 4 18 of 44 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Leon Edwards 16 of 32 50% 11 of 26 2 of 3 3 of 3 16 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nate Diaz 31 of 52 59% 28 of 48 3 of 3 0 of 1 25 of 46 6 of 6 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Leon Edwards

Big Brady picks Leon Edwards to win by TKO or cut stoppage, citing Edwards' youth, striking advantage, and well-rounded game. He notes Diaz is past his prime and has taken significant damage. He expects Edwards to mix in takedowns and potentially finish Diaz, possibly due to a cut.

Edwards inside the distance, TKO/cut stoppage
"i'll take leon edwards i'm actually taking the win by by some type of finish whether it's a cut stoppage or something like that"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Leon Edwards

Cody is confident Edwards wins, likely by decision, as he is a decision machine and Diaz is durable. He likes the decision prop at +135 and notes Edwards' clinch work and ring IQ. He also mentions the possibility of a cut stoppage but thinks Edwards will systematically pick Diaz apart.

Leon Edwards by decision (+135)
"leon edwards wins this fight by decision correct"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Leon Edwards

Daniel Levi picks Leon Edwards to win by decision, possibly via cut stoppage. He notes Edwards' technical striking and takedowns, and Diaz's tendency to cut easily. He warns that Edwards must not get into a brawl and should manage his cardio. He respects Diaz's toughness but thinks Edwards is too well-rounded.

by decision or cut stoppage
"i'm gonna go with leon to just kind of win a decision here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2021 (fight day)
Leon Edwards

Edwards is superior everywhere: striking, wrestling, and clinch work. He can take Diaz down and control him, or outstrike him at range. Diaz's only path is cumulative damage in later rounds, but Edwards' cardio is solid. Edwards likely wins a decision, as Diaz is durable and hard to finish. The line is wide for a reason.

Edwards by decision
"I think Leon Edwards is just on another level right now... I'll go with Leon Edwards and I'll take him to win this fight via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Leon Edwards

Paul is also confident in Edwards, calling him the anchor of parlays. He thinks Edwards wins by decision and likes the decision prop. He notes Edwards' excellent clinch work and high ring IQ, and believes he will systematically pick apart Diaz.

Leon Edwards by decision (+135)
"leon edwards is the anchor of the parlays this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Jun 4, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Leon Edwards

The MMA Guru is extremely confident in Leon Edwards, calling it the fight he'd pick with his life on the line. He cites Edwards' superior striking, cardio, and grappling, and notes Diaz's lack of power at 170 and decline in cardio since going vegan. He predicts a third-round TKO via body kick, as Edwards will want a finish to secure a title shot.

TKO in the third round via body kick
"i've never been more confident about something in my life"
LOSS vs Jorge Masvidal
TKO (doctor stoppage) R3 5:00 · UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · Nov 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jorge Masvidal 2 112 of 179 62% 114 of 184 1 of 1 100% 0 0 6:56
Nate Diaz 0 43 of 104 41% 125 of 194 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jorge Masvidal 1 35 of 54 64% 37 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:58
Nate Diaz 0 13 of 27 48% 34 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
2 Jorge Masvidal 1 39 of 58 67% 39 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:05
Nate Diaz 0 11 of 31 35% 34 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
3 Jorge Masvidal 0 38 of 67 56% 38 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:53
Nate Diaz 0 19 of 46 41% 57 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jorge Masvidal 112 of 179 62% 78 of 136 27 of 35 7 of 8 52 of 92 20 of 25 40 of 62
Nate Diaz 43 of 104 41% 23 of 74 12 of 21 8 of 9 33 of 91 10 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jorge Masvidal 35 of 54 64% 21 of 34 12 of 18 2 of 2 10 of 15 7 of 9 18 of 30
Nate Diaz 13 of 27 48% 7 of 19 3 of 5 3 of 3 8 of 22 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Jorge Masvidal 39 of 58 67% 29 of 47 7 of 8 3 of 3 18 of 32 11 of 13 10 of 13
Nate Diaz 11 of 31 35% 4 of 21 4 of 6 3 of 4 9 of 27 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Jorge Masvidal 38 of 67 56% 28 of 55 8 of 9 2 of 3 24 of 45 2 of 3 12 of 19
Nate Diaz 19 of 46 41% 12 of 34 5 of 10 2 of 2 16 of 42 3 of 4 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · Aug 17, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Diaz 0 69 of 133 51% 86 of 153 0 of 0 --- 1 2 1:49
Anthony Pettis 1 114 of 201 56% 205 of 306 1 of 1 100% 0 1 5:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Diaz 0 14 of 31 45% 23 of 41 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Anthony Pettis 0 22 of 42 52% 62 of 88 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:22
2 Nate Diaz 0 36 of 66 54% 40 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Pettis 0 54 of 100 54% 65 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:49
3 Nate Diaz 0 19 of 36 52% 23 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 2 1:49
Anthony Pettis 1 38 of 59 64% 78 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Diaz 69 of 133 51% 54 of 111 10 of 12 5 of 10 46 of 102 20 of 27 3 of 4
Anthony Pettis 114 of 201 56% 94 of 172 16 of 23 4 of 6 51 of 109 43 of 63 20 of 29
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Diaz 14 of 31 45% 9 of 22 2 of 2 3 of 7 9 of 24 5 of 7 0 of 0
Anthony Pettis 22 of 42 52% 15 of 33 5 of 6 2 of 3 9 of 23 6 of 9 7 of 10
2 Nate Diaz 36 of 66 54% 28 of 55 7 of 9 1 of 2 26 of 54 10 of 12 0 of 0
Anthony Pettis 54 of 100 54% 45 of 87 7 of 11 2 of 2 29 of 63 25 of 37 0 of 0
3 Nate Diaz 19 of 36 52% 17 of 34 1 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 24 5 of 8 3 of 4
Anthony Pettis 38 of 59 64% 34 of 52 4 of 6 0 of 1 13 of 23 12 of 17 13 of 19
LOSS vs Conor McGregor
Decision (majority) (48–47, 47–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · Aug 20, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Conor McGregor 0 166 of 343 48% 252 of 435 1 of 7 14% 0 0 5:50
Nate Diaz 3 164 of 286 57% 197 of 322 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Conor McGregor 0 25 of 73 34% 25 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nate Diaz 1 34 of 58 58% 34 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
2 Conor McGregor 0 37 of 76 48% 51 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Nate Diaz 2 34 of 70 48% 36 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
3 Conor McGregor 0 49 of 87 56% 79 of 117 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:31
Nate Diaz 0 26 of 45 57% 37 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
4 Conor McGregor 0 36 of 63 57% 48 of 76 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:07
Nate Diaz 0 46 of 76 60% 56 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
5 Conor McGregor 0 19 of 44 43% 49 of 77 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:42
Nate Diaz 0 24 of 37 64% 34 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Conor McGregor 166 of 343 48% 107 of 256 50 of 71 9 of 16 88 of 227 77 of 112 1 of 4
Nate Diaz 164 of 286 57% 98 of 212 26 of 29 40 of 45 137 of 253 27 of 32 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Conor McGregor 25 of 73 34% 11 of 49 6 of 11 8 of 13 25 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nate Diaz 34 of 58 58% 14 of 35 3 of 4 17 of 19 34 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Conor McGregor 37 of 76 48% 22 of 58 14 of 16 1 of 2 24 of 54 13 of 21 0 of 1
Nate Diaz 34 of 70 48% 19 of 54 5 of 5 10 of 11 31 of 67 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Conor McGregor 49 of 87 56% 40 of 72 9 of 15 0 of 0 18 of 42 31 of 45 0 of 0
Nate Diaz 26 of 45 57% 17 of 35 4 of 4 5 of 6 22 of 41 4 of 4 0 of 0
4 Conor McGregor 36 of 63 57% 22 of 45 14 of 18 0 of 0 17 of 36 19 of 27 0 of 0
Nate Diaz 46 of 76 60% 30 of 59 11 of 12 5 of 5 33 of 58 13 of 17 0 of 1
5 Conor McGregor 19 of 44 43% 12 of 32 7 of 11 0 of 1 4 of 22 14 of 19 1 of 3
Nate Diaz 24 of 37 64% 18 of 29 3 of 4 3 of 4 17 of 29 7 of 8 0 of 0
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 4:09 · UFC 196: McGregor vs. Diaz · Mar 05, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Diaz 0 61 of 140 43% 66 of 145 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:39
Conor McGregor 0 77 of 152 50% 89 of 169 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Diaz 0 28 of 74 37% 32 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:35
Conor McGregor 0 23 of 62 37% 26 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:25
2 Nate Diaz 0 33 of 66 50% 34 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Conor McGregor 0 54 of 90 60% 63 of 101 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Diaz 61 of 140 43% 47 of 117 7 of 11 7 of 12 56 of 133 3 of 4 2 of 3
Conor McGregor 77 of 152 50% 65 of 131 9 of 13 3 of 8 62 of 133 10 of 12 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Diaz 28 of 74 37% 18 of 58 4 of 6 6 of 10 26 of 71 0 of 0 2 of 3
Conor McGregor 23 of 62 37% 16 of 50 5 of 6 2 of 6 23 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Nate Diaz 33 of 66 50% 29 of 59 3 of 5 1 of 2 30 of 62 3 of 4 0 of 0
Conor McGregor 54 of 90 60% 49 of 81 4 of 7 1 of 2 39 of 72 10 of 12 5 of 6
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on Fox: dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · Dec 19, 2015
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Diaz 0 103 of 301 34% 104 of 303 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
Michael Johnson 0 153 of 300 51% 157 of 304 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Diaz 0 30 of 94 31% 30 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Johnson 0 21 of 66 31% 21 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nate Diaz 0 37 of 99 37% 37 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Michael Johnson 0 69 of 124 55% 69 of 124 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Nate Diaz 0 36 of 108 33% 37 of 110 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:16
Michael Johnson 0 63 of 110 57% 67 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Diaz 103 of 301 34% 44 of 185 28 of 69 31 of 47 103 of 300 0 of 1 0 of 0
Michael Johnson 153 of 300 51% 135 of 273 7 of 13 11 of 14 148 of 295 5 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Diaz 30 of 94 31% 5 of 45 10 of 28 15 of 21 30 of 94 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Johnson 21 of 66 31% 17 of 58 1 of 3 3 of 5 21 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nate Diaz 37 of 99 37% 18 of 61 10 of 23 9 of 15 37 of 98 0 of 1 0 of 0
Michael Johnson 69 of 124 55% 64 of 118 1 of 2 4 of 4 67 of 122 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Nate Diaz 36 of 108 33% 21 of 79 8 of 18 7 of 11 36 of 108 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Johnson 63 of 110 57% 54 of 97 5 of 8 4 of 5 60 of 107 3 of 3 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on Fox: dos Santos vs. Miocic · Dec 13, 2014
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael dos Anjos 0 77 of 119 64% 129 of 175 2 of 2 100% 0 0 7:47
Nate Diaz 0 13 of 104 12% 51 of 145 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael dos Anjos 0 25 of 49 51% 36 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:41
Nate Diaz 0 9 of 61 14% 14 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rafael dos Anjos 0 30 of 42 71% 34 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:44
Nate Diaz 0 4 of 39 10% 10 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rafael dos Anjos 0 22 of 28 78% 59 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:22
Nate Diaz 0 0 of 4 0% 27 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael dos Anjos 77 of 119 64% 46 of 81 5 of 9 26 of 29 37 of 66 1 of 2 39 of 51
Nate Diaz 13 of 104 12% 12 of 98 1 of 5 0 of 1 12 of 103 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael dos Anjos 25 of 49 51% 13 of 32 2 of 5 10 of 12 16 of 34 0 of 1 9 of 14
Nate Diaz 9 of 61 14% 8 of 55 1 of 5 0 of 1 8 of 60 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Rafael dos Anjos 30 of 42 71% 13 of 23 3 of 4 14 of 15 19 of 30 1 of 1 10 of 11
Nate Diaz 4 of 39 10% 4 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Rafael dos Anjos 22 of 28 78% 20 of 26 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 20 of 26
Nate Diaz 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone - Fight History
LOSS vs Jim Miller
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 1:32 · UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · Jul 02, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 24 of 36 66% 35 of 48 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:03
Donald Cerrone 0 21 of 33 63% 24 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 21 of 29 72% 32 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:03
Donald Cerrone 0 17 of 26 65% 20 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:08
2 Jim Miller 0 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 24 of 36 66% 16 of 28 6 of 6 2 of 2 17 of 27 0 of 0 7 of 9
Donald Cerrone 21 of 33 63% 12 of 20 6 of 8 3 of 5 21 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 21 of 29 72% 15 of 23 5 of 5 1 of 1 14 of 20 0 of 0 7 of 9
Donald Cerrone 17 of 26 65% 10 of 16 5 of 6 2 of 4 17 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jim Miller 3 of 7 42% 1 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 4 of 7 57% 2 of 4 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Angelo picks Jim Miller based on his recent knockout wins over prospects, while noting that Cerrone is stepping in on short notice and may not be in peak form. He acknowledges Cerrone's technical advantage but believes Miller's toughness and momentum give him the edge. He also mentions that Cerrone at +200 might be worth a small sprinkle.

Cerrone at +200 might be worth a couple dollar long shot
"I think i'm siding with jim miller here but the odds are kind of crazy donald cerrone is a two-to-one underdog and he might be worth a couple dollar sprinkle"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Big Brady is confident in Jim Miller, stating Donald Cerrone looks washed and doesn't want to be there. He notes Miller's power and first-round finishing ability, predicting a first-round knockout. He mentions Cerrone's recent struggles and weight cuts, while Miller is still active and motivated.

Miller by first round knockout
"give me uh jim miller to win jim miller to win my first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Cody thinks Miller's improved boxing and fast starts will overwhelm Cerrone, who has looked poor recently. He notes Miller's wrestling and submissions are also threats. He expects Miller to finish early.

"I think Jim Miller gets the pounce on him"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 30, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Donald Cerrone

Daniel Levi leans toward Donald Cerrone as the underdog, citing the price (+165) and the fact that Cerrone has beaten Miller before via head kick. He notes that Miller tends to slow down after the first round, and if Cerrone can weather the early storm, he can take over. Levi acknowledges that Cerrone is past his prime and has lost to lesser opponents, but he sees value in the dog price. He does not bet it himself.

Dog-or-pass; price is everything; no bet.
"i'm gonna lean with cowboy because of the price man plus 165"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Donald Cerrone

Cerrone is the better fighter with more tools, and the line is too wide. Miller is a quick starter but if he doesn't finish early, Cerrone takes over. Cerrone at 170 lbs benefits him. The host predicts Cerrone by decision, noting Miller's cardio is not as bad as some claim.

Cerrone round 3/decision double chance
"i think the line is whack i think this should be closer to it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul is torn, calling it a 50-50 fight. He likes Cerrone's chances if he survives the first round, especially at welterweight, but won't bet Miller at -185. He might sprinkle on a Cerrone late finish prop.

Cerrone round 3 +1600
"I don't know if I'm gonna get to Cerrone"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 27, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Donald Cerrone

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Donald Cerrone as an underdog, citing the fight being at welterweight where Cerrone won't have to cut as much weight, preserving his chin and cardio. He thinks Miller's power may not translate up a division and that Cerrone can survive the first round and rally in later rounds. He calls it a 50/50 fight and predicts a 29-28 decision for Cerrone.

underdog pick, fight of the night performance
"i'm gonna actually go with donald cerrone here in an underdog pick i think at 170 he shouldn't be that big of an underdog and this is a 50 50."
LOSS vs Alex Morono
TKO (punches) R1 4:40 · UFC on ESPN: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · May 08, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Morono 0 17 of 35 48% 18 of 36 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Donald Cerrone 0 35 of 84 41% 41 of 90 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Morono 0 17 of 35 48% 18 of 36 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Donald Cerrone 0 35 of 84 41% 41 of 90 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Morono 17 of 35 48% 5 of 23 10 of 10 2 of 2 16 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 35 of 84 41% 28 of 74 5 of 7 2 of 3 30 of 73 5 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Morono 17 of 35 48% 5 of 23 10 of 10 2 of 2 16 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 35 of 84 41% 28 of 74 5 of 7 2 of 3 30 of 73 5 of 11 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Donald Cerrone

Big Brady believes Cerrone is the better fighter everywhere, despite being past his prime. He notes Cerrone has fought much better competition and should have an edge on the feet and on the mat. Brady thinks Cerrone can mix in takedowns against Morono's poor takedown defense (47%). He predicts a decision win for Cerrone but says the line at -185 is too high to bet. He acknowledges Morono's high volume but thinks Cerrone's level of competition gives him the edge.

Cerrone by decision
"I'm gonna take cerrone yeah definitely not betting it especially where the line's at now i'm gonna take him to win by decision."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 6, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Donald Cerrone

Daniel Levi picks Donald Cerrone, stating there are levels to this and Morono is not a top 25 guy. He highlights Cerrone's superior striking, grappling, and cardio, and notes Morono's inability to get up from bottom. He expects Cerrone to outclass Morono, possibly via blast double or high kick, and predicts a decision win. He mentions Cerrone's durability in the Nico Price fight as a positive sign.

"i still think there's levels to this [ __ ] man and cerrone's on a completely different level striking grappling cardio"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Donald Cerrone

The host is confident in Donald Cerrone, believing he has advantages in striking, wrestling, and jiu-jitsu. He expects Cerrone to piece up Morono and win a decision, noting Morono's cardio issues and short notice. He likes Cerrone by decision prop.

Cerrone by decision +145
"i think that cerrone can have his way in striking or the grappling but i don't know that it finished necessarily materializes"
LOSS vs Niko Price
No Contest (overturned) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · Sep 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Donald Cerrone 0 113 of 230 49% 113 of 230 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:50
Niko Price 0 150 of 312 48% 167 of 330 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Donald Cerrone 0 37 of 66 56% 37 of 66 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Niko Price 0 55 of 115 47% 63 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
2 Donald Cerrone 0 38 of 89 42% 38 of 89 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Niko Price 0 57 of 112 50% 57 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Donald Cerrone 0 38 of 75 50% 38 of 75 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:50
Niko Price 0 38 of 85 44% 47 of 95 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Donald Cerrone 113 of 230 49% 69 of 181 38 of 43 6 of 6 101 of 216 11 of 13 1 of 1
Niko Price 150 of 312 48% 80 of 225 30 of 42 40 of 45 129 of 284 18 of 24 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Donald Cerrone 37 of 66 56% 20 of 49 13 of 13 4 of 4 27 of 54 10 of 12 0 of 0
Niko Price 55 of 115 47% 40 of 96 11 of 13 4 of 6 38 of 93 17 of 22 0 of 0
2 Donald Cerrone 38 of 89 42% 22 of 69 15 of 19 1 of 1 38 of 89 0 of 0 0 of 0
Niko Price 57 of 112 50% 21 of 68 17 of 23 19 of 21 56 of 111 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Donald Cerrone 38 of 75 50% 27 of 63 10 of 11 1 of 1 36 of 73 1 of 1 1 of 1
Niko Price 38 of 85 44% 19 of 61 2 of 6 17 of 18 35 of 80 0 of 1 3 of 4
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Big Brady picks Niko Price, citing Cerrone's decline and recent knockout losses to top competition. He notes Price is faster and a slow starter, while Cerrone has taken a lot of damage. He expects Price to get a first-round knockout, though he admits Cerrone is better on paper everywhere except durability.

Price by knockout
"give me nico price to get a knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 18, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Niko Price

The host believes Niko Price's power and explosiveness will be too much for Donald Cerrone, who is on a losing streak and has shown durability issues. He notes Price's ability to finish from any position and Cerrone's tendency to get stopped early. He predicts a first-round KO for Price, and likes the under 1.5 rounds at -105.

Niko Price wins by KO in round 1 +275; under 1.5 rounds -105; Niko Price inside distance -115
"I'm gonna take price to win this and i truly think he gets it done in the first round."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Niko Price

The host picks Niko Price over Donald Cerrone, citing Price's size, power, and ability to start fast. He notes that Cerrone has struggled against fighters who come out aggressively, and that Price was competitive against Vicente Luque. He predicts a KO win for Price.

KO win
"I'm gonna go with nico price getting a ko win."
LOSS vs Anthony Pettis
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · May 09, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Pettis 0 63 of 113 55% 81 of 133 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 0 62 of 148 41% 62 of 148 2 of 8 25% 0 0 1:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Pettis 0 15 of 27 55% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 0 17 of 31 54% 17 of 31 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:00
2 Anthony Pettis 0 21 of 38 55% 33 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 0 20 of 52 38% 20 of 52 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:38
3 Anthony Pettis 0 27 of 48 56% 27 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 0 25 of 65 38% 25 of 65 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Pettis 63 of 113 55% 44 of 84 10 of 18 9 of 11 60 of 110 1 of 1 2 of 2
Donald Cerrone 62 of 148 41% 31 of 112 18 of 22 13 of 14 59 of 143 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Pettis 15 of 27 55% 7 of 13 4 of 8 4 of 6 13 of 25 0 of 0 2 of 2
Donald Cerrone 17 of 31 54% 10 of 23 5 of 5 2 of 3 16 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Anthony Pettis 21 of 38 55% 13 of 28 4 of 6 4 of 4 21 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 20 of 52 38% 8 of 38 5 of 7 7 of 7 19 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Anthony Pettis 27 of 48 56% 24 of 43 2 of 4 1 of 1 26 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 25 of 65 38% 13 of 51 8 of 10 4 of 4 24 of 62 1 of 3 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Donald Cerrone

Big Brady picks Donald Cerrone, but with low confidence. He notes both fighters are past their prime and have shown signs of quitting. He believes Cerrone has a step down in competition and more heart, but worries about his durability. He predicts a decision win for Cerrone.

Cerrone by decision
"I'm going to go with Cerrone here. Um both these fighters are like out of their prime for sure. ... I think Cerrone has a little bit more left in the tank than Pettis."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Donald Cerrone

Daniel Levi picks Donald Cerrone, arguing that Pettis is not the same fighter as in 2013 and lacks sustainability. He believes if Cerrone avoids an early fight-ending blow, he will take over with takedowns and pressure. Levi notes that Cerrone is a slow starter but should dominate if he gets to the second round, and that Pettis tends to quit when pressured.

Cerrone by decision or finish
"I think if he avoids taking a fight ending blow in the early going he will eventually begin to take over the fight mix in takedowns along the way and either edge of decision or finish Pettis along the way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 6, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Pettis

Matt picks Pettis but is not confident, citing both fighters' mental fragility and recent losses. He thinks Pettis can establish pressure and leg kicks early to get a finish, but he doesn't trust either guy. He calls the fight a pass for betting and suggests Cerrone as the value side if forced to bet.

Pettis by second-round TKO, best bet is Cerrone for value
"I am gonna pick Paris I can't believe I'm doing it I'm picking Pettis to win but in terms of betting I'm not trusting him"
LOSS vs Conor McGregor
TKO (head kick and punches) R1 0:40 · UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · Jan 18, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Conor McGregor 1 19 of 26 73% 20 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Donald Cerrone 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Conor McGregor 1 19 of 26 73% 20 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Donald Cerrone 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Conor McGregor 19 of 26 73% 19 of 25 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 7 3 of 3 13 of 16
Donald Cerrone 0 of 1 0% 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Conor McGregor 19 of 26 73% 19 of 25 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 7 3 of 3 13 of 16
Donald Cerrone 0 of 1 0% 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

Daniel picks Conor McGregor to win by knockout, likely in the first round. He notes that McGregor's left hand is a huge factor and that Cerrone has historically folded under big lights. However, he questions McGregor's motivation and fatigue issues, but believes this is a tune-up fight for McGregor.

first round knockout
"I think McGregor is gonna come in fresh... I think he gets the win by knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

The host picks Conor McGregor to win by first-round KO, citing McGregor's range, speed, in-and-out movement, and left hand as key advantages. He believes Cerrone will struggle to deal with these attributes and that McGregor will set up a trap and land a clean left hand. However, he notes that if Cerrone's odds reach +300, he might place a small bet on Cerrone due to value, but his official prediction remains McGregor by first-round KO.

If Cerrone hits +300, might take a bet on Cerrone; under 1.5 rounds at +105 considered; McGregor by KO at -210 considered too steep; official pick is McGregor by first-round KO.
"my official pick'em my prediction is gonna be cornered by first round KO"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 6, 2020 (12 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

The host strongly favors Conor McGregor, citing his first-round focus and accuracy against Donald Cerrone's lack of head movement and slow starts. He notes Cerrone's recent KO loss to Justin Gaethje and the short turnaround (4 months), which raises chin concerns. He believes McGregor's takedown defense is underrated and that Cerrone's wrestling won't be effective. He predicts a first-round KO by McGregor.

first round KO
"I think Conor McGregor gets it done in the first round by KO viciously viciously"
LOSS vs Justin Gaethje
TKO (punches) R1 4:18 · UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · Sep 14, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Gaethje 0 17 of 52 32% 17 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 1 40 of 61 65% 40 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Gaethje 0 17 of 52 32% 17 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 1 40 of 61 65% 40 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Gaethje 17 of 52 32% 12 of 45 4 of 6 1 of 1 17 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 40 of 61 65% 27 of 44 0 of 2 13 of 15 36 of 55 2 of 3 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Gaethje 17 of 52 32% 12 of 45 4 of 6 1 of 1 17 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 40 of 61 65% 27 of 44 0 of 2 13 of 15 36 of 55 2 of 3 2 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Donald Cerrone vs. Justin Gaethje

Round 1
The main event is here, between two men that have combined for 24 post-fight bonuses, as Cerrone (36-12, 1 NC; 23-9 UFC) tussles with Gaethje (20-2, 3-2 UFC) at lightweight. The referee for this headliner that virtually guarantees action is Jerin Valel. The two touch gloves and we are underway. Cerrone starts with a push kick to the body, and Gaethje replies with a few sharp leg kicks. Gaethje whiffs on another leg kick, and Cerrone brings his knee up to check them. Gaethje presses forward and swings wildly, but nothing connects of significance. Gaethje ducks down to throw a big right hand and misses, but he does crack him with another few leg kicks for good measure. "The Highlight" tags Cerrone coming on, and backs way while launching a few more leg kicks, although "Cowboy" is starting to check them. Gaethje swings with all he has and "Cowboy" barely evades it, and tying up Gaethje tags Cerrone again. Cerrone leaps forward with a left hand, and then throws his own leg kick. A three-punch combination from "Cowboy" lands, and Gaethje cracks him with a counter left hand. As Gaethje swings, Cerrone responds with a body kick. The two men crash together, and Gaethje gets the better of this exchange. "Cowboy" ducks down and Gaethje times an uppercut, and then throws another leg kick that appears to stymie the movement of Cerrone slightly.
Gaethje blasts "Cowboy" right a right hand when coming in, halting the Colorado native in his tracks and dropping him to a knee. Gaethje cracks him with a few more short shots, until "Cowboy" falls to the ground
. "The Highlight" looks to Valel for a stoppage, but he does not get it so he clubs Cerrone with a few more punches until Valel calls the fight. Cerrone pops back up and protests the stoppage, but the fight is over. On the post-fight interview, the two celebrate and Cerrone is all smiles as he congratulates the victor.

The Official Result
Justin Gaethje def. Donald Cerrone R1 4:18 via TKO (Punches)
LOSS vs Tony Ferguson
TKO (doctor stoppage) R2 5:00 · UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes · Jun 08, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tony Ferguson 0 104 of 200 52% 104 of 200 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 0 68 of 185 36% 68 of 185 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tony Ferguson 0 52 of 104 50% 52 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 0 38 of 95 40% 38 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tony Ferguson 0 52 of 96 54% 52 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 0 30 of 90 33% 30 of 90 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tony Ferguson 104 of 200 52% 65 of 144 25 of 37 14 of 19 103 of 198 1 of 2 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 68 of 185 36% 43 of 152 15 of 23 10 of 10 68 of 184 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tony Ferguson 52 of 104 50% 31 of 76 14 of 20 7 of 8 51 of 102 1 of 2 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 38 of 95 40% 28 of 82 6 of 9 4 of 4 38 of 95 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tony Ferguson 52 of 96 54% 34 of 68 11 of 17 7 of 11 52 of 96 0 of 0 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 30 of 90 33% 15 of 70 9 of 14 6 of 6 30 of 89 0 of 1 0 of 0
WIN vs Al Iaquinta
Decision (unanimous) (49–45, 49–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · May 04, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Donald Cerrone 0 90 of 223 40% 90 of 223 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:00
Al Iaquinta 2 138 of 361 38% 140 of 363 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Donald Cerrone 0 19 of 58 32% 19 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Al Iaquinta 0 20 of 45 44% 20 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Donald Cerrone 0 24 of 59 40% 24 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Al Iaquinta 0 21 of 68 30% 21 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Donald Cerrone 0 18 of 39 46% 18 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Al Iaquinta 1 28 of 78 35% 29 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
4 Donald Cerrone 0 9 of 20 45% 9 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Al Iaquinta 1 26 of 72 36% 27 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
5 Donald Cerrone 0 20 of 47 42% 20 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Al Iaquinta 0 43 of 98 43% 43 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Donald Cerrone 90 of 223 40% 49 of 165 23 of 38 18 of 20 90 of 223 0 of 0 0 of 0
Al Iaquinta 138 of 361 38% 87 of 302 17 of 25 34 of 34 129 of 344 3 of 3 6 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Donald Cerrone 19 of 58 32% 10 of 42 6 of 12 3 of 4 19 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Al Iaquinta 20 of 45 44% 12 of 35 3 of 5 5 of 5 20 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Donald Cerrone 24 of 59 40% 11 of 41 5 of 9 8 of 9 24 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Al Iaquinta 21 of 68 30% 11 of 57 3 of 4 7 of 7 21 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Donald Cerrone 18 of 39 46% 9 of 29 5 of 6 4 of 4 18 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Al Iaquinta 28 of 78 35% 15 of 64 6 of 7 7 of 7 25 of 69 0 of 0 3 of 9
4 Donald Cerrone 9 of 20 45% 6 of 15 3 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Al Iaquinta 26 of 72 36% 17 of 61 3 of 5 6 of 6 21 of 65 3 of 3 2 of 4
5 Donald Cerrone 20 of 47 42% 13 of 38 4 of 6 3 of 3 20 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Al Iaquinta 43 of 98 43% 32 of 85 2 of 4 9 of 9 42 of 97 0 of 0 1 of 1