vs
+120 -130
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · Feb 22, 2025 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song Next Fight
Age 35
Height 5' 11"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 29
Height 5' 10"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Andre Fili
3.88 SLpM
37.0% Str. Acc.
4.34 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
2.32 TD Avg
46.0% TD Acc.
71.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Melquizael Costa
4.38 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
2.97 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
2.0 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
58.0% TD Def.
1.1 Sub. Avg
Andre Fili
Moneyline
FanDuel +120
KO/TKO
BetRivers +510
Submission
FanDuel +1300
Decision
FanDuel +260
Melquizael Costa
Moneyline
Caesars -130
KO/TKO
BetWay +600
Submission
BetWay +900
Decision
DraftKings +180
Andre Fili - Fight History
LOSS vs Jose Delgado
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andre Fili 0 62 of 141 43% 70 of 154 4 of 6 66% 0 1 0:59
Jose Delgado 0 94 of 169 55% 103 of 179 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andre Fili 0 19 of 39 48% 19 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Jose Delgado 0 23 of 46 50% 26 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Andre Fili 0 18 of 39 46% 19 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:11
Jose Delgado 0 30 of 62 48% 34 of 66 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:31
3 Andre Fili 0 25 of 63 39% 32 of 74 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:25
Jose Delgado 0 41 of 61 67% 43 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andre Fili 62 of 141 43% 46 of 121 11 of 13 5 of 7 61 of 139 0 of 0 1 of 2
Jose Delgado 94 of 169 55% 37 of 99 34 of 47 23 of 23 83 of 153 9 of 14 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andre Fili 19 of 39 48% 15 of 32 2 of 4 2 of 3 19 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jose Delgado 23 of 46 50% 7 of 26 7 of 11 9 of 9 23 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Andre Fili 18 of 39 46% 16 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 1 18 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jose Delgado 30 of 62 48% 9 of 35 15 of 21 6 of 6 22 of 49 6 of 11 2 of 2
3 Andre Fili 25 of 63 39% 15 of 53 7 of 7 3 of 3 24 of 61 0 of 0 1 of 2
Jose Delgado 41 of 61 67% 21 of 38 12 of 15 8 of 8 38 of 58 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Angelo picks Jose Delgado, praising his spectacular striking and talent. He acknowledges Delgado's takedown defense issues but dismisses them because 'Las Vegas doesn't care about wrestling.' He notes that Andre Fili has been wrestling more lately but chooses not to warn viewers, implying that wrestling won't be scored heavily.

"Jose's going to be the pick. He's got to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Big Brady picks Jose Delgado to win by first-round knockout. He loves Delgado's power and aggression, and criticizes Fili's chin and striking defense (51%). He believes Delgado will come forward with reckless abandon and knock Fili out early, calling it the best fight on the card.

"I think he knocks out Feeley and I think he knocks him out in the very first round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Rolando Delgado

Cody picks Delgado confidently, citing his knockout power and improved cardio. He notes Fili's path is wrestling, but Delgado's knees and takedown defense are deterrents. He expects Delgado to catch Fili eventually.

"I got Delgato all day long. We'll talk about what could go wrong of course, but I think Delgato is prime for a knockout win here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Connor picks Delgado, agreeing that Fili will get caught taking pictures. He notes Delgado's flow state striking and that Fili's defensive habits make him vulnerable to being timed.

Odds: Delgado opened at -300, currently -350; Fili opened at +250, currently +285.
"Feli is going to get caught taking pictures, as you say."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Rolando Delgado

James picks Rolando Delgado to win by first-round knockout. He believes Delgado's dynamic striking, speed, and power will be too much for the older Fili, who has been knocked out early in recent fights. He notes that if Delgado doesn't finish early, Fili can compete over three rounds, but his prediction is a round one stoppage.

"I see Jose Delgado knocking him out in round one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

The host picks Delgado to win by knockout, citing his power and speed. He believes Delgado's striking will be too much for Fili, who is inconsistent and aging. However, he is hesitant about the high price and would prefer a line closer to -185. He suggests looking at the KO prop if it offers value.

Delgado by KO (if prop at +150 or better)
"I think Delgato finds a chin and and gets the knockout win here, but it's tough to get behind minus 340."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Rolando Delgado

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Delgado's power and the old guard being replaced. He thinks Fili's wrestling path is possible but Delgado is working on it. He expects Delgado to win.

"I'm on the same page um with that."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Jose Delgado

The Guru picks Jose Delgado, citing his finishing ability and size. He thinks Fili is finishable and may switch off in clinch exchanges, where Delgado can land elbows or knees. He predicts a nasty finish, noting Delgado's previous wins over Connor Matthews and Destroyer.

Prediction: finish (elbow, spinning elbow, or knee)
"I'm going to go with Jose Miguel Delgado... I think he'll destroy him. And I think he'll get a finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Zane picks Delgado, citing his fluid combination punching and ability to catch Fili when he gets predictable. He notes Fili tends to get finished when facing dynamic finishers, and Delgado is a natural puncher.

Odds: Delgado opened at -300, currently -350; Fili opened at +250, currently +285.
"Delgado is just too fucking fluid on the attack."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andre Fili 0 64 of 182 35% 74 of 193 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:42
Christian Rodriguez 0 83 of 174 47% 95 of 190 1 of 7 14% 0 0 1:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andre Fili 0 22 of 63 34% 27 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Christian Rodriguez 0 29 of 64 45% 29 of 66 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:35
2 Andre Fili 0 23 of 69 33% 23 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Christian Rodriguez 0 29 of 56 51% 30 of 57 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:28
3 Andre Fili 0 19 of 50 38% 24 of 56 3 of 4 75% 0 0 1:42
Christian Rodriguez 0 25 of 54 46% 36 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andre Fili 64 of 182 35% 52 of 164 6 of 10 6 of 8 62 of 179 2 of 3 0 of 0
Christian Rodriguez 83 of 174 47% 49 of 130 8 of 13 26 of 31 69 of 157 13 of 16 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andre Fili 22 of 63 34% 19 of 56 1 of 4 2 of 3 22 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
Christian Rodriguez 29 of 64 45% 13 of 43 4 of 6 12 of 15 28 of 63 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Andre Fili 23 of 69 33% 18 of 62 2 of 3 3 of 4 23 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Christian Rodriguez 29 of 56 51% 17 of 40 3 of 5 9 of 11 27 of 54 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Andre Fili 19 of 50 38% 15 of 46 3 of 3 1 of 1 17 of 47 2 of 3 0 of 0
Christian Rodriguez 25 of 54 46% 19 of 47 1 of 2 5 of 5 14 of 40 11 of 14 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Andre Fili vs. Christian Rodriguez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-250); Fili (+200)

Round 1
With eight years separating the two, this featherweight contest could be considered one of the “passing of the torch” variety. Fili (24-12, 1 NC; 12-11, 1 NC UFC), 35, needs a win badly, as he has alternated them with defeats for his seven outings and is a loss away from a .500 UFC record. Rodriguez (12-3, 5-3 UFC) is a bit above the midpoint line, but he can scarcely afford coming up short as well given that he has dropped two of three. Something’s gotta give, and referee Mike Beltran will be there for it every step of the way. The 145ers touch ‘em up.
Rodriguez says hello with a long one-two, and Fili gets right behind jabbing and low kicks. Rodriguez gets in his face and busts Fili in the chops with a few punches, and a second combination backs Fili off. Fili replies with a crisp right hand over the top, but Rodriguez does not retreat for long and continue to pursue the taller man. Fili uses his range to keep Rodriguez at bay, coming up missing with a head kick and wiping his nose after. Fili keeps his jab going, and he reddens the nose of the younger man and kicks him under the armpit to boot. Rodriguez gets right in Fili’s face and punches him, and Fili changes stances and re-enters the pocket. Both men lob big punches at one another, with Fili clipping “CeeRod” with a few left hands.
Fili gives chase and wings a head kick, and Rodriguez shakes out the cobwebs and re-engages. Fili snaps out his powerful jab, and some damage is showing on Rodriguez’ face on several places. Fili styles on Rodriguez with his jab and short hook, staying out of the range of the biggest power. Fili’s jab is his best weapon, breaking up Rodriguez attacks. Rodriguez catches a body kick and rushes forward to take the vet down, hurling him to the mat like a sack of potatoes with 15 seconds to spare. Rodriguez rides out the remainder of the round on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fili

Round 2
Both fighters get right back to business when the second round kicks off, as Fili opens up with his jab to get going with high kicks. Rodriguez throws back and ducks down to grab hold of a single, and when that fails, he spins with an elbow that goes wide. Rodriguez reaches his man with a head kick, and Fili takes it cleanly without flinching. Rodriguez stomps at the front leg, and when he comes out swinging, Fili is there to chew him up with jabs and calf kicks. Rodriguez sits down on a hard right hand, and his low kick after further gets Fili’s attention. Fili kicks his foe in the front leg, which is welding up and turning colors fast. Rodriguez wades in to brawl, and Fili meets him with his fists until Rodriguez gloms onto him and looks for a body lock.
Fili escapes to reset, and they bang it out for a few seconds, with Rodriguez nodding after taking heavy blows and getting his nose busted open. Rodriguez does land his own power punches, but Fili is more fluid and appears to be putting out a higher volume. Rodriguez swarms forward and misses the mark, allowing Fili to jack him in the jaw with a pair of straight punches. Fili chains a jab into a leg kick that freezes Rodriguez for a second, and “CeeRod” gathers his thoughts and returns to his own leg-based assault. Fili probes and prods with effective jabs, forcing blood to smear on the younger fighter’s visage. Fili clubs Rodriguez with a left hook, and he takes a jab to put two punches on the cheeks. Fili swaps stances and shoots for a takedown, with Rodriguez stonewalling him and kneeing him on the break. Rodriguez goes way wide with a spin, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fili

Round 3
The featherweights bump fists and promptly punch one another square in the face. There are no feelers, with the jabs from both sides coming with some fire behind them. Rodriguez takes one or two and decides to tie the Californian up, where he knees him in the thigh several times while controlling him against the wire. Rodriguez lets loose with some punches before Fili strikes back, and the jab from Fili ends the exchange as they both gather steam for a second. Rodriguez leaps at Fili, and Fili lets him land so he can tee off on him with fast fists. Fili times a picture-perfect takedown to scoop “CeeRod” off his feet, putting the younger man down to the floor. Rodriguez scrambles, and Fili gladly hangs onto him from behind while looking for trips. Fili lifts Rodriguez up and slams him down with emphasis, although Rodriguez is still with it after bouncing his melon off the floor. Rodriguez scrambles well, getting to his knees in a hurry, and he spins out to split.
Rodriguez walks Fili down, looping punches at him that set up a head kick. Fili pecks with repetitive, painful jabs, and Rodriguez has no answer to them but tries to counter with a wheel kick that is so far away, Fili could have taken a picture of it on a Polaroid and developed it by the time Rodriguez was good to go again. Rodriguez gets mad, and he starts swinging up close and personal. Fili fires back with a vengeance, only to get clipped with a left hand that changes his course. “Touchy” grabs Rodriguez and bowls him over to the mat, landing some ground-and-pound until Rodriguez explodes to his knees. Fili tries a mat return with Rodriguez leaned up against the wire, and Rodriguez breaks off and just misses a slashing elbow. Fili’s jab is turning Rodriguez’ face to hamburger, and Rodriguez just nods at him looking for more. Rodriguez walks Fili down, briefly clinching only to let go so he can let his hands go. Fili intercepts two spinning moves, with Rodriguez tries to initiate a crazy final brawl but not getting it from the veteran. Fili ends the match by landing some shots, and when the dust settles, Fili plants a kiss on the defeated man’s forehead.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fili (30-27 Fili)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Fili (30-27 Fili)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fili (30-27 Fili)

The Official Result
Andre Fili def. Christian Rodriguez via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Angelo leans Andre Fili, believing he is the more skilled fighter with better speed and cleaner striking. He notes Christian Rodriguez is a prospect killer but struggles against experienced, well-rounded fighters. However, Fili is unreliable and his chin is questionable. Angelo may change his pick later in the week.

"I think I'm going to lean Andre here. This is a pick that I might change later in the week."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Big Brady picks Christian Rodriguez, noting Andre Fili's recent decline and tendency to get submitted. He highlights Rodriguez's guillotine threat and believes he can snatch a neck if Fili shoots for takedowns. Brady predicts a second-round submission for Rodriguez.

second round submission
"I like Rodriguez here. I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Connor picks Fili because Rodriguez struggles against veterans who don't run into his defensive wall. He notes that Fili will stay at range, use jabs and high kicks, and not get drawn into a wrestling match. Connor points out that Rodriguez has shown an inability to adjust when his plan A fails, as seen against Melquizael Costa. He acknowledges Fili's tendency for catastrophic errors but believes Rodriguez won't capitalize consistently.

Odds mentioned: Rodriguez opened -300, currently -235; Fili opened +250, currently +200.
"I have to pick Andre Fili."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

The host is a big C-rod fan but thinks he is being overappreciated, making him a chalky favorite. He notes a size advantage for Rodriguez fighting at 145 when he should be at 135, which gives some concern, but believes it's a matter of time before Rodriguez finds a submission opportunity and forces the tap.

by submission, odds comment: would be happy to pull the trigger at -180 range
"I think he is the technically superior fighter. It's just a size advantage of Rodriguez constantly fighting at 145 lbs when he should be down at 135. That gives me some cause for concern, but I think it's just a …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Andre Fili

The MMA Guru picks Andre Fili as an underdog, despite acknowledging Christian Rodriguez should win. He believes Fili's size, reach, and veteran savvy will be too much, and that Rodriguez can't finish him. He predicts a close 29-28 decision win for Fili.

"I'm going with Andre Philly. Crafty vet performance. Little bit too big. Little bit too physical. This is my underdog of the card."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Rodriguez's game is built for opponents who make mistakes, but Fili is a veteran who won't just run into his defense. He highlights that Fili's wrestling is tough to out-grapple and that Rodriguez hasn't proven he can beat a veteran like Fili. Zane is concerned about Fili's age and recent wins over older fighters, but still sees Rodriguez as unproven at this level.

Odds mentioned: Rodriguez opened -300, currently -235; Fili opened +250, currently +200.
"I think I'm going to go with you. I want my gut says pick Rodriguez, but it does really feel like his game is not made to beat veterans right now."
Submission R1 4:30 · UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · Feb 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andre Fili 0 7 of 24 29% 7 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
Melquizael Costa 0 27 of 56 48% 27 of 56 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andre Fili 0 7 of 24 29% 7 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
Melquizael Costa 0 27 of 56 48% 27 of 56 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andre Fili 7 of 24 29% 4 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 27 of 56 48% 3 of 25 10 of 13 14 of 18 26 of 55 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andre Fili 7 of 24 29% 4 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 27 of 56 48% 3 of 25 10 of 13 14 of 18 26 of 55 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Melquizael Costa vs. Andre Fili

Round 1
A veritable chasm of UFC-level experience separates the next two featherweights, with grizzled Team Alpha Male product Fili (24-11, 1 NC; 12-10, 1 NC UFC) looking to hold the line and remind folks he is still very much a factor. Like Fili, Costa’s (21-7, 2-2 UFC) tenure thus far has been somewhat inconsistent but fairly violent. Referee Jeff Hoiby draws the charge between the two, and the local man Fili has no time for a glove touch as he wants to get going immediately. Fili chases his foe around the cage, looking for his jab. Costa backs him off briefly with a pair of high kicks, and he doubles up on leg kicks as well. Fili walks through everything pitched at him to sling leather, including a right left hand that zips through his guard. “Let’s go Fili” chants boom through the building, and they both fire off head kicks. Fili’s gets his foe’s attention, with Costa smiling at him. They decide to throw caution to the wind for a moment and brawl with no interest in defense, and they tag one another cleanly but do not budge. Costa backs off and fires off a wheel kick, and he settles himself to chop at the Washington-based fighter’s knee with oblique kicks. Costa rips a kick to the ribs as Fili is marching ever forward, and he narrowly evades getting his chin checked with a low kick but still walks into a left hook. Fili blocks a high kick but cannot stop a body kick, and he plods forward, energized by “USA” chants. Fili whiffs on a head kick, unable to lock his foe down, and he brushes his shoulder when Costa misses as well. Fili blocks a kick and hurls one right back, and Costa breathes a sight of relief and strikes back with a high kick. Fili motions that he protected himself from it, and Costa stays on his bike prodding with oblique kicks. Fili connects with a heavy body kick, dodges one that comes back and makes a matador motion. Fili takes a kick and shoots in for a takedown, and when he hits it,
Costa wraps up a guillotine choke and wrenches with all his might. The Brazilian clings to the choke, which is not going anywhere as he has it tight as a drum with his right leg wrapped around Fili’s waist. Fili is fine until suddenly he is not, and he frantically taps out.
The stunned audience is silenced in a second, as the hometown fighter surrenders from the submission and walks off disappointed that he got caught. Meanwhile, Costa has just earned the biggest win of his career, and he goes off to celebrate with teammate Joanderson Brito who previously put Fili away in the first round.

The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Andre Fili R1 4:30 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 17, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Big Brady picks the underdog Melquizael Costa, noting that Andre Fili's durability is declining after many wars, and he was dropped and knocked out recently. He thinks Costa is younger, has more tools on the feet with hard kicks to head, legs, and body, and has solid grappling with seven takedowns in his last three fights. He expects a close fight going to decision, with Costa winning a close decision.

by decision
"I'm going toide with the underdog here in in Mel Costa so give me Mel Costa to win the fight I think it's going to be close though I think it's going to be close I think it goes 15"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Andre Fili

The host acknowledges the fight is close as odds indicate, but believes Fili's strength of schedule, experience, and unorthodox striking will shut down Costa's grappling. He expects Fili to win on the scorecards, possibly by split decision.

"I believe ph's strength of schedule experience and unorthodox striking approach will be enough for him to shut down the grappling of Costa really touching him up from distance and winning this fight on the scorecards but I wouldn't be …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Feb 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Andre Fili

The Guru hesitantly picks Fili, noting he never likes picking him but sees Costa as getting 'fraud checked'. He values Fili's win over Cub Swanson and thinks Costa's loss to Thiago Moisés is a bad look. He expects Fili to mix in grappling in the second and third rounds and win a close decision.

"I'm going to have to do it again we ride Andre Philly Pickers we ride again"
WIN vs Cub Swanson
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Jun 29, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andre Fili 0 62 of 111 55% 90 of 140 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:29
Cub Swanson 0 67 of 147 45% 70 of 151 2 of 11 18% 0 0 3:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andre Fili 0 20 of 31 64% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Cub Swanson 0 18 of 42 42% 19 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Andre Fili 0 12 of 29 41% 22 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:19
Cub Swanson 0 18 of 35 51% 18 of 35 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:27
3 Andre Fili 0 30 of 51 58% 48 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Cub Swanson 0 31 of 70 44% 33 of 73 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andre Fili 62 of 111 55% 43 of 86 7 of 11 12 of 14 53 of 101 9 of 10 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 67 of 147 45% 49 of 118 13 of 22 5 of 7 52 of 126 15 of 21 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andre Fili 20 of 31 64% 9 of 18 3 of 4 8 of 9 18 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 18 of 42 42% 12 of 31 4 of 8 2 of 3 13 of 36 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Andre Fili 12 of 29 41% 11 of 27 0 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 18 of 35 51% 14 of 29 4 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 29 3 of 6 0 of 0
3 Andre Fili 30 of 51 58% 23 of 41 4 of 6 3 of 4 24 of 44 6 of 7 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 31 of 70 44% 23 of 58 5 of 8 3 of 4 24 of 61 7 of 9 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Cody picks Fili but is not confident due to his recent knockout losses. He notes that Fili is younger and faster, but his chin is questionable. Cody believes Fili's volume and wrestling could give him an edge, but acknowledges that Swanson is a fan favorite who often gets close decisions. He warns that Fili needs to finish Swanson to avoid a controversial decision loss.

"I think Fili because he's younger, a little faster... I still side with him here but the line is again..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Daniel is picking Swanson as a plus 210 underdog, citing Swanson's path to victory via knockout and his strong performance against Hakim Dawodu at similar odds. He notes that Fili is hot and cold and can be chinned. He envisions a retirement moment for Swanson where he knocks out Fili and puts his gloves down in the Octagon.

wins by KO
"I'm gonna go Cub Swanson here to have like a Robbie Lawler vs Nico Price type retirement moment where he goes out there knocks out Fely puts his gloves down."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Andre Fili

The host picks Fili to win on the scorecards, but criticizes the -260 line as too high, saying Fili should be closer to -150 or -180. He expects a competitive striking battle that goes to decision, and recommends the over 2.5 rounds at -110. He notes Swanson is a live underdog at +210.

over 2.5 rounds at -110
"I will pick him to win this fight though... I think it's ultimately uh phy who ends wins this fight on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Paul picks Swanson, citing his experience and durability. He notes that Swanson has a history of winning close decisions and that Fili has been knocked out recently. Paul believes Swanson's volume and toughness will be key, and that he can win a decision or even catch Fili with a knockout. He also mentions that Swanson is a fan favorite, which may help in a close fight.

"I think it's a pretty clear dogger pass, Cub Swanson for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Andre Fili

The Guru picks Andre Fili over Cub Swanson. He believes Fili is bigger, stronger, and more explosive at this stage. He notes Swanson's age (40) and size disadvantage. He likes Fili's low kicks and thinks he can finish Swanson by TKO.

TKO
"I'm going to go with Andre Philly... TKO"
LOSS vs Dan Ige
KO (punches) R1 2:43 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Feb 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Ige 1 11 of 19 57% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Andre Fili 0 8 of 33 24% 8 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Ige 1 11 of 19 57% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Andre Fili 0 8 of 33 24% 8 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Ige 11 of 19 57% 4 of 11 2 of 3 5 of 5 10 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Andre Fili 8 of 33 24% 7 of 28 1 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Ige 11 of 19 57% 4 of 11 2 of 3 5 of 5 10 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Andre Fili 8 of 33 24% 7 of 28 1 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Angelo calls this a 50-50 fight. Dan Ige is a fantastic kickboxer with good BJJ and underrated wrestling, having defended 10 takedowns from Bryce Mitchell. Andre Fili has all the tools but a questionable chin and tends to brawl. Angelo thinks if Fili wrestles, he can win, but expects him to brawl, favoring Ige. He suggests this is a great live bet fight.

might be the best live BET fight on the card
"Dan eay is going to be the pick but low confidence."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Big Brady picks Dan Ige to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Ige is durable (never knocked out or submitted), hits hard, and has fought top competition, while Fili has been knocked out multiple times and has questionable striking defense. He expects a stand-up fight where Ige's power and durability prevail, dropping and finishing Fili.

second round knockout
"I'm going to take Dan EA here I'm going to take him to win this fight by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Cody picks Ige, expecting a close decision. He notes Ige's durability and power, while Fili has been knocked out before. He thinks the fight will likely go to decision, with Ige's superior hand speed and pressure being key. Cody also mentions the Apex environment may favor Ige's impactful strikes. He suggests a prop on Ige by decision or the over 2.5 rounds.

fight goes to decision, over 2.5 rounds, Ige by decision
"I'm gonna go with Dan eay but again it's not like I love the money line specifically because this is going to be a very close competitive fight likely goes to decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Ige has crisp boxing, high fight IQ, and a great game plan. He should be able to counter Fili's unorthodox striking and potentially mix in grappling to open up his boxing. Fili has a reach advantage but struggles to land big shots against disciplined strikers. Ige's experience and reliability should lead to a decision victory.

"I think we'll see the better damage and better productivity come from the Dan eay side which would eventually go out there and allow him to get a decision Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Paul also picks Ige, noting Fili's experience but questioning if his wrestling is enough to neutralize Ige. He thinks Ige's chin and power are key, and that Fili's volume may not be enough. Paul mentions a possible Ige knockout, but leans toward Ige on the moneyline. He also considers a sprinkle on Ige by KO in round 1 at +850.

Ige by KO round 1 (+850)
"Dan eay on the money line is where I'm going here as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

The MMA Guru picks Dan Ige because he follows game plans well and performs against opponents just outside the rankings. He expects Ige to chop low kicks and work his way inside, finishing Fili in the second round. He notes Ige's wins over Damon Jackson and his competitive fight with Bryce Mitchell.

finish in the second round
"I'm gonna go Dan eay... I think he will find the finish on Andre Philly... chewing up Philly's legs and then finishing him at some point in the second round."
WIN vs Lucas Almeida
TKO (punches) R1 3:32 · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andre Fili 1 20 of 36 55% 25 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Lucas Almeida 0 10 of 25 40% 10 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andre Fili 1 20 of 36 55% 25 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Lucas Almeida 0 10 of 25 40% 10 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andre Fili 20 of 36 55% 16 of 29 3 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 21 0 of 0 12 of 15
Lucas Almeida 10 of 25 40% 1 of 11 0 of 1 9 of 13 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andre Fili 20 of 36 55% 16 of 29 3 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 21 0 of 0 12 of 15
Lucas Almeida 10 of 25 40% 1 of 11 0 of 1 9 of 13 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Angelo picks Lucas Almeida as an underdog, citing his real power and killer instinct. He acknowledges Fili's talent but distrusts his chin and lack of wrestling usage. He does not bet because both fighters are unreliable.

No bet; both fighters unreliable
"I'm going to take a chance I'm going to shoot my shot on the underdog here I'm going to pick Lucas... there's not going to be a bet here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Big Brady picks Lucas Almeida to win by second-round KO, despite acknowledging Fili's wrestling path. He notes Fili hasn't wrestled much recently and isn't a dominant grappler like Pat Sabatini, so he expects the fight to stay standing. Brady highlights Almeida's 100% finish rate and power, while Fili has been finished 5 times and has a questionable chin. He believes Almeida will land a knockout as an underdog.

"I'm going to take ALA to win this fight by knockout in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Cody picks Fili, arguing that Almeida is hittable and walks in a straight line. He notes that Fili has good footwork, a jab, and can mix in wrestling. Cody believes Fili will outpoint Almeida by striking and using takedowns to secure rounds. He expects a decision win for Fili, as Almeida's takedown defense is suspect and Fili is the more well-rounded fighter.

Andre Fili by decision
"I'm going to take fely by decision"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Jeff Fox picks Lucas Almeida as his dog, explaining that Almeida is a better striker and is fighting a guy on a skid. He thinks Almeida is a worthy gamble at plus 145.

"give me Lucas Almeida over Andre fely"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Lucrative James picks Lucas Almeida as the value side. He believes Andre Fili has clear deficiencies in striking defense and chin, getting hurt in almost every fight. He thinks Fili's path is via wrestling, but Fili often chooses to stand and bang. Almeida hits hard, has good durability, and Fili's tendency to get cracked makes Almeida the play at underdog odds.

"I think this is a dog or pass spot... the value lies in Lucas Almeida."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Andre Fili

The host leans toward Fili but is not confident due to the chalk. He believes Fili's experience and grappling advantage should be the difference, as he can take Almeida down and grind out a decision. However, he warns that if Fili chooses to strike, he could get knocked out. He expects Fili to shoot multiple takedowns and win a decision, avoiding his first losing streak in the UFC.

Fili by decision
"I will ever so slightly lean the fely way I'm not so happy with a chalk in this spot as if fely decides to go out there and strike with Almeida that could spell some trouble for him"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Paul picks Fili, agreeing that Fili is the more experienced and well-rounded fighter. He notes that Fili has faced much tougher competition and has multiple paths to victory. Paul believes Fili's wrestling and striking will be too much for Almeida, who is a banger but lacks defensive skills. He expects Fili to win by decision or potentially by submission.

"fely is the pick for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Andre Fili

The Guru picks Andre Fili over Lucas Almeida, noting Fili has looked good even in losses and has a reach and range advantage. He believes Almeida lacks the KO power to finish Fili and that Fili's wrestling will be a factor. He predicts a 29-28 decision win.

Fili by decision (29-28)
"I am going to go with Andre Philly... I'm going to go Andre Philly gets this one done 2928 decision"
LOSS vs Nathaniel Wood
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Jul 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 1 84 of 148 56% 108 of 174 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:47
Andre Fili 1 58 of 151 38% 76 of 179 0 of 2 0% 0 1 2:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 1 37 of 69 53% 37 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:23
Andre Fili 0 17 of 49 34% 20 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Nathaniel Wood 0 10 of 15 66% 34 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
Andre Fili 1 17 of 34 50% 32 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:55
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 37 of 64 57% 37 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Andre Fili 0 24 of 68 35% 24 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 84 of 148 56% 38 of 90 10 of 18 36 of 40 71 of 123 0 of 0 13 of 25
Andre Fili 58 of 151 38% 45 of 134 7 of 10 6 of 7 53 of 144 3 of 5 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 37 of 69 53% 21 of 48 4 of 7 12 of 14 24 of 44 0 of 0 13 of 25
Andre Fili 17 of 49 34% 15 of 45 0 of 2 2 of 2 17 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nathaniel Wood 10 of 15 66% 4 of 9 1 of 1 5 of 5 10 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andre Fili 17 of 34 50% 14 of 31 2 of 2 1 of 1 12 of 27 3 of 5 2 of 2
3 Nathaniel Wood 37 of 64 57% 13 of 33 5 of 10 19 of 21 37 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andre Fili 24 of 68 35% 16 of 58 5 of 6 3 of 4 24 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood, believing a healthy Wood beats an inconsistent Andre Fili. He notes Wood's injury was just a cut, not a knee issue, so he should be fine. He does not bet the moneyline but may explore props because Fili is better than the odds suggest.

may explore props
"I think a full-blown healthy Nathaniel would probably beats an inconsistent Andre feeling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Big Brady picks Nathaniel Wood by decision, citing hometown advantage and volume striking. He notes Wood is undersized with a reach disadvantage but throws high volume (6.34 sig strikes/min). He thinks Wood can mix in takedowns and that close decisions will favor the London fighter. He admits the line should be closer.

by decision
"give me wood to win this fight I think it's gonna be close potentially even a split decision of this one but I think wood wins it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Cody picks Wood based on volume advantage, noting Wood lands over 97 significant strikes in recent fights while Fili's career high is 98. He thinks Wood's wrestling and pressure will overwhelm Fili, and that Wood's chin issues were due to weight cuts at 135. He expects a 30-27 decision.

Wood by decision at +120, Wood over 76.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"Nathaniel would and like want to say he's one of them more confident picks on the card because I believe he is"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Daniel made this his first bet of the card, taking Nathaniel Wood at -180 to win 2 units. He highlights Wood's pace and volume advantage, noting Fili has never landed 100 significant strikes in a UFC fight while Wood has exceeded 130 multiple times. He believes Wood's calf kicks and pressure will neutralize Fili's reach, and that Wood's improved chin at featherweight (no longer cutting to bantamweight) is a key factor. He acknowledges the threat of Fili's head kick but trusts Wood's game plan to close distance and outwork him.

Daniel bet Wood at -180 to win 2 units. He mentions Wood's volume advantage and Fili's lack of output.
"I took Nathaniel wood at -180 and I played it to win two units"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

James picks Nathaniel Wood to win, calling this a potential coming-out party for him. He notes that Wood has deserved a big win and that Fili doesn't always rise to the occasion. He mentions that Wood is fighting in his hometown of London and that he thinks Wood will rise to the occasion. James acknowledges his bias as he is friendly with Wood but still believes in his skills.

"I do think this is could be his coming out party you know he's deserved one for a while"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The host picks Nathaniel Wood, citing his improved cardio at featherweight, patient striking, and ground game. He believes Wood's overall game will be too much for Fili, who struggles against higher competition. He predicts a decision win for Wood.

"give me Nathaniel wood to win this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul agrees with Cody on volume, noting Fili lacks knockout power and has durability issues. He thinks Wood's wrestling advantage and pace will be key. He also likes Wood by decision and the over on significant strikes.

Wood by decision at +120, Wood over 76.5 significant strikes
"I think it comes down to volume"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The MMA Guru picks Nathaniel Wood, calling it a no-brainer. He praises Wood's leg kicks, noting he may hold the record for most leg kicks landed in a fight. He criticizes Andre Fili's recent decline and skinny legs, and believes Wood's high guard will defend against head kicks. The Guru expects Wood to bust up Fili's lead leg and win by decision or late TKO.

"Gotta go Nathaniel wood here in my opinion no-brainer"
WIN vs Bill Algeo
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Sep 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andre Fili 0 59 of 142 41% 67 of 151 1 of 3 33% 2 0 4:18
Bill Algeo 0 81 of 170 47% 151 of 246 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andre Fili 0 19 of 56 33% 19 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Bill Algeo 0 30 of 61 49% 31 of 63 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Andre Fili 0 32 of 68 47% 32 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
Bill Algeo 0 41 of 86 47% 46 of 91 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:07
3 Andre Fili 0 8 of 18 44% 16 of 27 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:49
Bill Algeo 0 10 of 23 43% 74 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andre Fili 59 of 142 41% 48 of 125 6 of 10 5 of 7 59 of 141 0 of 1 0 of 0
Bill Algeo 81 of 170 47% 38 of 113 17 of 27 26 of 30 80 of 168 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andre Fili 19 of 56 33% 16 of 51 2 of 4 1 of 1 19 of 55 0 of 1 0 of 0
Bill Algeo 30 of 61 49% 9 of 37 9 of 10 12 of 14 30 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Andre Fili 32 of 68 47% 25 of 61 4 of 4 3 of 3 32 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bill Algeo 41 of 86 47% 21 of 59 7 of 13 13 of 14 40 of 84 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Andre Fili 8 of 18 44% 7 of 13 0 of 2 1 of 3 8 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bill Algeo 10 of 23 43% 8 of 17 1 of 4 1 of 2 10 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Angelo picks Algeo as an underdog, citing his pressure, pace, and durability. He notes that Fili is talented but coming off a bad knockout and may be gun-shy. Angelo believes Algeo will push the pace and win a decision. He placed a moneyline bet at +115.

Moneyline bet at +115.
"i'm going the underdog with bill algio i got a money line bet on him at plus 115"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Big Brady picks Bill Algeo to win by decision, taking the dog. He acknowledges that Andre Fili is the better striker and has fought tougher competition, but Brady favors Algeo's high volume and cardio. He notes that Algeo has poor takedown defense but an excellent get-up game, so Fili likely won't hold him down. Brady expects Algeo to overwhelm Fili with output and win a close decision. He also mentions that Fili's output is low (3.82 significant strikes per minute) and his accuracy is 36%.

decision
"i'm gonna take bill algae to win by decision but it's going to be super close"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Cody agrees, noting Fili's wrestling and clinch work will exploit Algeo's takedown defense. He thinks Fili is smoother on the feet and will win a decision. He also mentions the prize picks line for Fili's significant strikes is 50.5, but he might avoid that due to potential wrestling-heavy game plan.

"i'm not gonna buy into getting flash ko'd against joe anderson burrito i'm gonna keep with andre feely here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Daniel Levi picks Bill Algeo at plus 115 odds, placing one unit. He sees this as a coin flip fight and prefers the dog odds. He highlights Algeo's durability, volume, and ability to scramble back to his feet after takedowns. He notes Fili's long UFC career and tendency to have close fights, and thinks Algeo can pull away late with volume. He expects a competitive fight that could go either way.

Bet one unit on Bill Algeo moneyline at +115
"I actually took algiero one unit at plus 115 simply because i i expect this to be a super competitive close fight and in a coin flip fight give me dog odds all day"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Jacob picks Fili, believing he is the more talented and well-rounded fighter. He notes that Algeo is tough but lacks knockout power, so Fili can implement his game plan of bouncing in and out and mixing in takedowns. Jacob acknowledges that Fili has lost fights he should win but thinks this is a perfect matchup for him.

"i think he's a better fighter and i think this is a perfect matchup for him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 16, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Andre Fili

This is a 50-50 fight but Fili has more tools, mixing striking with takedowns. Algeo has good BJJ defensively but his takedown defense is a weakness. Fili is fighting with his back against the wall and should put together a full MMA game. Algeo's flashy striking can be dangerous but Fili's veteran experience and wrestling should edge him a decision.

"I think filio showcased a much better overall game and I think he wins this fight without too much issues"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Paul thinks Fili's wrestling advantage will be key, as Algeo has poor takedown defense. He notes Fili looked great against Pineda before the no-contest and that the flash KO loss to Brito is overblown. Paul expects Fili to mix in takedowns and win a decision.

"andre feely is going to be able to mix in his wrestling get on top he's a little bit stronger in the clinch and i think that's going to help him rack up some points"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Andre Fili

The MMA Guru picks Andre Fili by decision. He notes Bill Algeo is on short notice and has a child due soon, which may affect his cardio. He thinks Algeo struggles against well-rounded, durable fighters who can go the distance, like Ricardo Ramos and Ricardo Lamas. He believes Fili has great cardio and won't have to worry about power since Algeo has no power. He expects Fili to win a decision, and advises betting on Fili if he becomes an underdog.

if you're betting i'd say al joe might end up the favorite... wait until the fight day put some money on philly if he goes into an underdog
"i think i'm going to go with andre feeling decision win"
Melquizael Costa - Fight History
LOSS vs Arnold Allen
DEC R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · May 16, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Arnold Allen 1 98 of 152 64% 156 of 222 7 of 7 100% 0 0 9:28
Melquizael Costa 0 100 of 254 39% 118 of 280 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Arnold Allen 1 9 of 9 100% 18 of 20 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:44
Melquizael Costa 0 10 of 14 71% 19 of 25 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:45
2 Arnold Allen 0 23 of 38 60% 28 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Melquizael Costa 0 26 of 78 33% 28 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Arnold Allen 0 32 of 52 61% 44 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:22
Melquizael Costa 0 30 of 71 42% 30 of 72 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Arnold Allen 0 23 of 36 63% 26 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:43
Melquizael Costa 0 23 of 63 36% 24 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Arnold Allen 0 11 of 17 64% 40 of 51 4 of 4 100% 0 0 4:03
Melquizael Costa 0 11 of 28 39% 17 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Arnold Allen 98 of 152 64% 81 of 134 6 of 7 11 of 11 79 of 131 0 of 2 19 of 19
Melquizael Costa 100 of 254 39% 47 of 173 20 of 42 33 of 39 97 of 249 0 of 1 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Arnold Allen 9 of 9 100% 8 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 5
Melquizael Costa 10 of 14 71% 5 of 8 3 of 3 2 of 3 7 of 11 0 of 0 3 of 3
2 Arnold Allen 23 of 38 60% 16 of 31 2 of 2 5 of 5 23 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 26 of 78 33% 8 of 49 5 of 14 13 of 15 26 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Arnold Allen 32 of 52 61% 27 of 47 2 of 2 3 of 3 25 of 45 0 of 0 7 of 7
Melquizael Costa 30 of 71 42% 14 of 49 7 of 13 9 of 9 30 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Arnold Allen 23 of 36 63% 20 of 33 1 of 1 2 of 2 23 of 35 0 of 1 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 23 of 63 36% 10 of 41 4 of 11 9 of 11 23 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Arnold Allen 11 of 17 64% 10 of 15 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 1 7 of 7
Melquizael Costa 11 of 28 39% 10 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 1 11 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

Angelo picks Arnold Allen, believing he is cleaner, faster, and more experienced. He is not worried about Costa's grappling and thinks Allen will control the striking. He notes Costa has random power but sees no reason Allen is chinny. He expects Allen to be a step ahead.

"Arnold Allen is the pick. ... I think Arnold Allen is cleaner. I think he's faster. He certainly has more experience."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

Big Brady picks Arnold Allen despite not being a fan, citing the five-round distance as key. He expects Costa to fade in later rounds, as seen in his previous fights. He predicts a decision win for Allen, noting that if it were three rounds, he might pick Costa.

"I like Allen here."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

Cody leans toward Arnold Allen due to his experience in five-round fights and higher level of competition, despite a 1-3 record in his last four. He notes Allen's ability to win rounds against elite fighters like Max Holloway and Movsar Evloev, and expects his cardio to be an advantage as the fight progresses. However, he is hesitant to bet the current -155 line and prefers to play Allen in the live market if he loses early rounds. He acknowledges Melquizael Costa's recent knockout power and higher volume, but worries about Costa's cardio in a five-round fight.

Would rather bet Arnold Allen in the live market if he loses the first round; expects a 48-47 decision.
"I'd rather just bet Arnold Allen in the live market instead of betting minus 155 right now."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked May 16, 2026 (fight day)
Arnold Allen

Costa is more technical and dynamic on the feet, but may fade in later rounds. Allen is tough, durable, and has good cardio. If Costa's gas tank holds, he wins; if not, Allen takes over. Lean Allen but not betting.

Costa +5.5 is interesting but odds too short.
"My lean is Arnold Allen, but I wouldn't bet him."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

Lucrative James picks Arnold Allen to win, citing Allen's superior five-round experience, size, and ability to close distance against kickers like Costa. He believes Costa's recent knockout streak is not repeatable and that Allen's losses to elite fighters (Max Holloway, Movsar Evloev, Jean Silva) were competitive. He also notes Allen's grappling advantage and the small cage benefiting Allen's pressure style.

"I think Arnold Allen is going to win the fight. I trust Arnold Allen a little bit more with his five round experience."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

The host picks Arnold Allen but is hesitant due to the chalky odds. He expects Allen to land more significant damage, but acknowledges Costa's volume and aggression could cause issues. He believes Allen's veteran savvy and five-round experience will lead to a decision win.

"It's hard for me to fully trust Allen, especially at chalky odds here, but I expect him to land more a significant damage. Although the volume and aggression of Costa could potentially cause Allen some issues, I believe the veteran …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

The host leans with the veteran Allen due to his experience and ability to potentially exploit Costa's aggressive style, especially in a five-round fight. However, he is not confident enough to bet Allen at -180, as he has never been high on Allen. He predicts Allen wins by decision and might consider the over.

over (implied)
"I find myself leaning with the veteran though. I find myself leaning with Allen. I I just feel like he's his experience."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Paul is not passionate about the main event but leans toward Melquizael Costa if forced to make a play. He notes that Costa has been on a good run and that Arnold Allen has never been knocked down in the UFC, but Costa seems to be putting it together. He is not confident enough to bet pre-fight and will focus on live markets instead.

"If I was forced to make a play, I'd probably click Costa."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Jan 31, 2023 (1201 days before fight)

The host leans towards Max Holloway because the fight is five rounds, which favors Holloway's cardio and experience. He notes that Arnold Allen tends to break his hand and slow down in later rounds, as seen in the Sadiq Yusuf fight. He believes Allen will win the first two rounds but fade, allowing Holloway to potentially finish in rounds 4 or 5. He also mentions Holloway's durability and volume punching.

"I am leaning towards Max Holloway winning this fight as it goes on maybe getting a finish in the later rounds"
WIN vs Dan Ige
KO R1 4:56 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Feb 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Ige 0 7 of 11 63% 12 of 16 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:31
Melquizael Costa 1 19 of 40 47% 26 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Ige 0 7 of 11 63% 12 of 16 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:31
Melquizael Costa 1 19 of 40 47% 26 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Ige 7 of 11 63% 2 of 5 2 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 19 of 40 47% 9 of 26 7 of 9 3 of 5 13 of 29 4 of 5 2 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Ige 7 of 11 63% 2 of 5 2 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 19 of 40 47% 9 of 26 7 of 9 3 of 5 13 of 29 4 of 5 2 of 6
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Melquizael Costa vs. Dan Ige

Round 1
Jacob Montalvo is the referee. Ige takes the center, kicks the leg and then lands a takedown. Costa is right back up as Ige presses him into the cage. Ige with a shoulder strike from the clinch. Costa is able to toss Ige to the canvas and then lands a knee to the body as his foe stands. They’re battling it out in the clinch, and Costa drives a couple knees to the midsection. Costa with another knee and then he shoves Ige away. Costa goes high with a kick, but Ige has his guard up .Another high kick from Costa is blocked. Costa follows yet another head kick with a front kick down the middle. Another front kick has hurt Ige, but he keeps his wits to survive a follow-up barrage from his foe. Costa steps in with an elbow, then lands a knee as he slides out of range. Ige forces the clinch, but Costa knees and separates. Costa follows a side kick to the body with a left hand. A leg kick lands on Ige. Costa backs up to the fence but leaps in with a knee.
With time winding down, Costa drops Ige with a beautiful spinning back kick to the jaw. Ige covers up on the canvas, and Costa unloads with about seven to eight standing-to-ground punches before Montalvo steps in to wave off the fight.
Costa has his sixth straight UFC win and in the process becomes the first person to finish Ige in 30 professional fights.

The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Dan Ige via TKO (Spinning Back Kick and Punches) R1 4:56
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Angelo picks Melquizael Costa, citing his speed, busy style, and well-rounded skills. He respects Dan Ige's toughness and experience but believes Costa is the rising star. He also suggests a plus 3.5 bet on Ige as a potential prop, noting Ige often wins rounds even in losses.

Suggests Dan Ige plus 3.5 as a prop bet.
"I got to pick Mel Costa."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2026 (13 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Big Brady picks Melquizael Costa to defeat Dan Ige, citing Costa's hot streak and superior minute-winning. He notes Costa has more tools on the feet, including kicks, and that Ige is hittable and tends to lose decisions. He is concerned about Ige's last performance against Pitbull, where he did nothing. He predicts Costa will win by decision, picking him apart with volume. He mentions the line moved from -120 to -185, indicating public money on Costa.

Melquizael Costa by decision; line movement noted
"I like Costa here. I kind of think it's just a Costa decision. Just picking apart Dan Ige, who is hittable, landing a lot of kicks, landing a lot of volume, and winning this fight on the scorecard."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Cody likes Ige at plus money, citing his recent performances against top competition (Diego Lopez, Lerone Murphy, Patricio Pitbull) where he won rounds. He thinks Costa's wrestling isn't proven and that Ige's cardio and power in later rounds give him an edge. He expects a decision win for Ige.

"I got a Dan Eay play out of this. And if you really want to get jiggy with it, like Eay's got knockout power. Do not overlook it, but likely Eay by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Connor picks Ige but with caution, noting that Costa is an opportunistic fighter who has been winning but often in messy ways. He points out that Costa tends to fade in the third round and that Ige is durable and a good counter puncher. He also notes that Ige has been impossible to finish and that Costa's lack of process could be exploited by Ige's experience.

Ige opened +105, now +182; Costa opened -125, now -212
"I'm going to pick Danny Gaye, but it's a very uneasy pick and I have been wrong. I've been surprised by Costa all the way through."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Feb 14, 2026 (7 days before fight)

The host favors Costa stylistically due to his size, length, and technical striking, but considers the odds too steep to bet. He notes both fighters are weak on the ground, and Ige has one-shot knockout power, making Costa a risky bet at -224. He passes on betting either side.

"This is one of those matchups where for me it's an easy pass. I favor Costa. He should win. The odds are too steep. There's no way I can justify a bet on him at these odds."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Dan Ige

James picks Dan Ige as the betting side, believing Ige has better pocket boxing and power, and that Costa's cardio and durability are questionable. He notes that Ige has faced much tougher competition and that Costa's recent wins are over lesser opponents. James expects Ige to get a knockout, possibly in the later rounds as Costa fades.

"I am going to pick Eay as the betting side. I think that ultimately gets a knockout in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Costa is on a five-fight winning streak with good activity and a kicking game that should trouble Ige. Ige is a veteran boxer but has struggled against high-volume strikers. Costa's range and kicks should keep Ige at bay, and he should land the more significant strikes. Ige could have success if he crashes the pocket, but Costa should win a decision.

"I still think he ends up landing more significant strikes, the better shots, the more eye-catching shots, and I think that leads to him winning this fight on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Ige's ability to win rounds against elite fighters. He points out that Costa has slowed down in later rounds and that Ige's takedown defense has improved. He thinks the fight goes to decision and Ige's experience gives him the edge.

"I want that plus money price tag for sure. Milk's a little unproven, right?"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

The MMA Guru picks Dan Ige by TKO, feeling that Ige's composure and power will catch Costa. He notes that Costa sometimes throws lazy kicks and can be caught on the back foot. He believes Ige is the highest-level opponent Costa has faced and can time him for a KO.

TKO
"I think Dan Ige is going to get this one done by TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Zane also picks Ige with the same caution, agreeing that Costa's success is partly smoke and mirrors. He notes that Costa is not a process-driven fighter and that opponents who are resilient tend to do better against him as the fight goes on. He believes Ige's counter-punching and durability will be key, but acknowledges Costa could win if he lands a big shot early.

"So I'm picking Ige too, but with exactly the same amount of caution. As you, I am prepared to be wrong."
KO R1 1:14 · UFC on ESPN: Royval vs. Kape · Dec 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Melquizael Costa 1 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Morgan Charrière 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Melquizael Costa 1 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Morgan Charrière 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Melquizael Costa 4 of 9 44% 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 5 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 2 of 4 50% 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Melquizael Costa 4 of 9 44% 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 5 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 2 of 4 50% 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Morgan Charriere vs. Melquizael Costa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-110); Charriere (-110)

Round 1
Finally settling on a suitable—and spectacular—nickname, Costa (24-7, 5-2 UFC) now goes by “The Dalmatian” rather than some version of his name or a riff on some inside joke no one gets. He faces an equally dramatic traveler, Charriere (21-11-1, 3-2 UFC), who used to go by the nickname of “Luffy” in honor of the main character from anime series “One Piece.” There will be no Gum Gum attacks in the cage as long as referee Eric McMahon is in charge. The featherweights race towards one another, not bothering to touch gloves as Costa moves right to the center of the cage.
Costa pitches out a low kick and then one to the liver, the latter landing loudly. Charriere kicks him back, resulting in a back-and-forth kick-off. Costa aims a push kick to the knee of his foe, and he splits the guard with a jab.
Out of nowhere, “The Dalmatian” drops down and hurls a missile of a high kick, who falls to the floor off-balance. Before he hits the deck, his foot wraps just around the guard enough to completely separate Charriere from his senses. Even with Charriere blocking it, the sheer impact was enough to completely neutralize him.
Charriere collapses to his back, limbs seemingly stricken by rigor mortis, his eyes wide open but no one is home. Costa scoots back up to his feet and is about to drop down a punctuating blow, but he peels off seeing that his work here is done. After a very brief celebratory hoot, Costa drops to his knees in the center of the cage respectfully as he waits for Charriere to recover. Thankfully, Charriere sits up and is able to return to his feet before long, but he needs to be assisted out of the cage with someone having their arm around him. It is an emotional moment for the pink and blue-haired featherweight who may have just earned the biggest win of his career in ultra-violent fashion.

The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Morgan Charriere R1 1:14 via KO (Head Kick)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Cody picks Costa, citing his well-rounded game, durability, and ability to mix striking with takedowns. He notes Charrière's low volume and tendency to wait, while Costa is more active and willing to push the pace. He expects Costa to win a decision.

Costa by decision +150
"Melk Costa is the side for me."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Lucrative James leans toward Morgan Charrière, citing his ability to dictate where the fight takes place and his power advantage. However, he admits it's a 50/50 fight and not confident, noting Charrière's inconsistent fight IQ and Costa's kicking and grappling skills. He projects even odds at -110 each.

"I will say that Sharier gets it done just cuz I think that he can probably dictate where the fight takes place."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Paul also picks Costa, emphasizing his blend of skills and recent submission streak. He thinks Charrière is skilled but often does not do enough, while Costa's forward pressure and grappling will secure the win. He suggests Costa by decision.

Costa by decision +150
"Melk Costa by decision."
WIN vs Julian Erosa
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Erosa 0 69 of 173 39% 85 of 202 3 of 10 30% 0 0 3:34
Melquizael Costa 0 102 of 204 50% 128 of 236 2 of 3 66% 1 0 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Erosa 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 27 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:36
Melquizael Costa 0 32 of 75 42% 32 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 Julian Erosa 0 23 of 54 42% 30 of 62 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:56
Melquizael Costa 0 33 of 55 60% 47 of 70 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:08
3 Julian Erosa 0 36 of 93 38% 45 of 113 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:02
Melquizael Costa 0 37 of 74 50% 49 of 91 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Erosa 69 of 173 39% 42 of 140 18 of 24 9 of 9 55 of 150 13 of 21 1 of 2
Melquizael Costa 102 of 204 50% 67 of 160 16 of 22 19 of 22 99 of 196 3 of 7 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Erosa 10 of 26 38% 5 of 19 1 of 3 4 of 4 9 of 24 0 of 0 1 of 2
Melquizael Costa 32 of 75 42% 14 of 52 7 of 10 11 of 13 32 of 73 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Julian Erosa 23 of 54 42% 11 of 40 8 of 10 4 of 4 15 of 43 8 of 11 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 33 of 55 60% 25 of 46 3 of 4 5 of 5 31 of 53 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Julian Erosa 36 of 93 38% 26 of 81 9 of 11 1 of 1 31 of 83 5 of 10 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 37 of 74 50% 28 of 62 6 of 8 3 of 4 36 of 70 1 of 3 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-192), Erosa (+160)

Round 1
Although much can be said about the state of UFC matchmaking as of late, the promotion knew exactly what it was doing when it matched Erosa (31-11, 9-7 UFC) against Costa (23-7, 4-2 UFC). It chose violence. The featherweights will go for broke under the watchful eye of referee Herb Dean, and they get right to it after embracing the formality of bumping fists. Costa prods with the ball of his foot, looking for low kicks as Erosa walks him down. Costa keeps working on the front leg as Erosa gives him one back, and Erosa grabs his foe’s foot and lifts it up. Costa bounces off the fence to get his limb back, and he whiffs on two hooks. Costa scores a body kick as he stays on the outside, and after pitching a leg kick, he trips on the edge of the cage but does not fall over. Erosa lets him get up and continues to trade kicks with him, and Costa mixes things up with a surprise Superman punch. Costa follows it with a booming head kick that rocks “Juicy J,” who backs off to the fence but is still dangerous as a coiled snake. Costa walks forward to throw bombs, and Erosa snipes him with a mean right hand that makes him think twice. Erosa gets his legs back beneath him and blocks a head kick, walking Costa down but taking three punches on the chin to do so. Erosa fakes a spin and lunges forward with an elbow, slipping and falling over. Costa lets him up so he can leap at him with a knee, and he chains punches into a body kick as Erosa is now the one retreating. Costa parries a few punches and lets fly a left hand, and his second effort reaches his man. Costa wraps a head kick around the guard and Erosa shrugs it off, nailing Costa with a right hand over the top. Erosa jumps at his foe to attack, and Costa times a spinning back kick that pounds into the cup. Erosa grumbles and adjusts his groin supporter before waving Dean off. Costa lets his foe’s fists and feet whiz past him so he can deliver a hard body kick, and Erosa fakes his way in to take the fight down. Erosa whips Costa all the way around to take him down, and he slashes down with an elbow as soon as he gets to side control. Costa is warned for having his toes in the cage, and Erosa drops down a few punches and leans back to watch an upkick buzz past him at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 2
Costa’s left foot is leaking blood as the second round begins, but he shrugs it off and touches gloves with his opponent. Erosa gets right into attack mode, firing off a head kick and a right hand but getting countered with a left and a body kick. Costa belts “Juicy J” with a left hand, and Erosa bites down on his mouthpiece to unload a power punch. Costa shakes Erosa up with a one-two, and Erosa again has to recover before coming forward. The punches of Costa make Erosa pursue a takedown, and Costa defends with a guillotine choke and stands back up to re-secure it. Erosa holds on and leverages Costa back down, but he in submission danger again. Costa lets go before burning his arms out, and he stands up. Erosa leans on from behind, his left eye swelling up fast. Costa defends a takedown effort and keeps his balance, stomping Erosa’s foot and receiving an elbow in the face for his effort. As Erosa is leaning heavily on his man, Costa sweeps his leg and puts him down for a second. Erosa climbs back up and walks through a one-two. Costa reaches the Washington native at the end of a left hand, and Erosa fires back with a vengeance. They reach one another with long punches, and instead of clinching, Erosa pushes off and shrugs at him. Costa lines up a solid crescent kick that hits the target, and Erosa goes for broke with punches and kicks to any target he can find. Erosa pokes Costa in the eye, and Costa tells them he is fine and keeps going. Erosa thanks him by drilling a spinning back kick in his ribs, and Costa laughs it off and throws hammers. Erosa staggers Costa with a pair of hooks, and a grinning Costa swings back with bad intentions and rocks Erosa. Erosa spins through to hit Costa in the face with his foot, and he knocks Costa across the cage with a left hand right before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erosa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 3
While Erosa does touch gloves, he is a man on a mission. Walking Costa down immediately, he swings his way into a clinch. Erosa leans on the Brazilian to slow him down, getting off the occasional knee until Costa trips him and sets him down. Erosa responds by nailing Costa with an upkick and working his way to his feet, where he backs “Melk” off and dislodges his mouthpiece with a right hand. He follows with another right hand to lead into a clinch, and Costa backs off with a left hook. The two clash heads after Erosa lands an uppercut, and “Juicy J” pours it on while swinging wildly. Costa’s head movement keeps him relatively safe, and he blasts Erosa in the jaw with four punches in a combination. Erosa’s movement leads him to banging into the fence, but he is quick to shake it off and uppercut Costa in the chops. Erosa continues staying in Costa’s face, with punches that lead to an elbow as Costa is backing off but smiling. Erosa lines up punches in bunches, and his elbows are not accurate. They proceed to brawl it out with little regard to defense or cardio, and even though Costa is fatigued, he is still loading up with everything he has. Thankfully for those watching this carnage, Erosa is doing just the same, as they proceed to hammer one another in the jaw again and again. Costa trips Erosa up to get a second to breathe, and he backs off to avoid an upkick and let Erosa stand. Erosa marches ever forward, swinging recklessly while Costa is giving it back when he can. Costa takes several punches square on the jaw and offers up a knee, and Erosa spins with a back fist. A second and third back fist from Erosa do manage to rail into the Brazilian, who is as tough as nails and never falters. The action-packed “Fight of the Night” candidate goes the distance, and both exhausted men raise their arms. The second round may be where the victor emerges.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erosa (29-28 Erosa)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa (29-28 Costa)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa (29-28 Costa)

The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Julian Erosa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Angelo picks Melquizael Costa with high confidence, stating that Costa should be better everywhere. He notes Costa's creative striking, solid grappling, and incredible scrambles. His only concern is Costa's activity level, as this will be his fifth fight in 12 months, which could lead to nagging injuries or fatigue. However, Angelo is not overly concerned and expects Costa to win.

"Mel Costa. I am very confident in this pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Big Brady picks Julian Erosa as a dog, acknowledging Costa could knock him out early. He notes Costa's quick turnaround and tendency to slow down, while Erosa has great cardio and a nasty choke game. He predicts Erosa wins by second-round submission if it gets extended.

Erosa by submission, round 2
"I like a Rosa here as a dog. ... I'm going to take him to win this fight by second round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Melquizael Costa

The host notes Costa's aggressiveness and unorthodox striking can catch Erosa off guard, especially since six of Erosa's seven losses have come by knockout. He feels Costa can take advantage of Erosa's mistakes and get a finish. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds.

Costa by KO/TKO; under 2.5 rounds
"I think his just aggressiveness and unorthodox striking approach can really catch Arosa offguard."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Melquizael Costa

The Guru picks Melquizael Costa, calling him a fellow 'fraud checker' who can handle Julian Erosa's gritty style. He notes Costa's grappling looked improved against Christian Rodriguez and his kicks are very good. He worries about Erosa's upset potential but believes Costa is better and more active. He predicts a TKO or decision win.

"I'm going to have to go with Malikisel Costa. I think he's just better by far than Julian Rosa."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Mar 29, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Christian Rodriguez 0 64 of 98 65% 77 of 113 6 of 15 40% 1 1 6:48
Melquizael Costa 0 65 of 105 61% 159 of 208 1 of 2 50% 1 3 4:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Christian Rodriguez 0 11 of 14 78% 12 of 15 1 of 5 20% 1 0 2:07
Melquizael Costa 0 22 of 32 68% 63 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:12
2 Christian Rodriguez 0 19 of 27 70% 24 of 33 1 of 4 25% 0 1 1:42
Melquizael Costa 0 26 of 40 65% 71 of 93 1 of 1 100% 1 1 2:24
3 Christian Rodriguez 0 34 of 57 59% 41 of 65 4 of 6 66% 0 0 2:59
Melquizael Costa 0 17 of 33 51% 25 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Christian Rodriguez 64 of 98 65% 36 of 69 23 of 24 5 of 5 29 of 53 26 of 31 9 of 14
Melquizael Costa 65 of 105 61% 39 of 72 19 of 25 7 of 8 19 of 47 17 of 23 29 of 35
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Christian Rodriguez 11 of 14 78% 3 of 5 8 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 3 9 of 11 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 22 of 32 68% 5 of 11 15 of 19 2 of 2 4 of 9 8 of 12 10 of 11
2 Christian Rodriguez 19 of 27 70% 8 of 16 9 of 9 2 of 2 10 of 18 9 of 9 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 26 of 40 65% 21 of 32 2 of 4 3 of 4 3 of 11 7 of 8 16 of 21
3 Christian Rodriguez 34 of 57 59% 25 of 48 6 of 6 3 of 3 17 of 32 8 of 11 9 of 14
Melquizael Costa 17 of 33 51% 13 of 29 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 27 2 of 3 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Melquizael Costa vs. Christian Rodriguez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-148), Costa (+124)

Round 1
If the UFC isn’t careful, a fight might break out in the cage with this next one. Having bounced back from his first career stoppage loss well enough, Rodriguez (12-2, 5-2 UFC) is looking to put himself on another win streak. To get that going, he will have to get past the recently renamed “Melk Cauthy” Costa (22-7, 3-2 UFC), a name more in line with Costa’s preference for the knockout—or, nocaute. Fists are bumped before they are traded, as the featherweights are joined in the Octagon by referee Fernando Salas Navarro. Costa pump-fakes several times to get started, setting up a high kick with it that does not get through. His low kicks do trip up Rodriguez, who hits his knees and bounces back up to tie Costa up against the wall. Rodriguez peppers the ribs with knees on either sides, and Costa responds with short punches to the side of the dome when not fighting to keep his balance. A body lock and trip from Rodriguez allows him to get Costa down for a split-second, only to have to settle for pushing Costa against the wire again. They jockey for position against the wire, and Rodriguez sells out to drag Costa down to the floor as they hit the ground together. They spring right back upright while still in the tie-up, with Costa stomping the toes and kneeing the body. Costa softens the side up with several punches, and Rodriguez finally hits the sweep he was looking for and puts Costa down. Costa gets back up as fast as he can, and he keeps his hand on the ground to defend himself from knees to the head. Rodriguez suddenly snatches up a brabo choke and twirls Costa around, and the Brazilian does not panic in the slightest and not only escapes it, but flips Rodriguez over to establish top position. Costa attacks the body with elbows, and when Rodriguez explodes back upright, Costa chases him with a single strike before the horn sounds to end the close round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 2
Rodriguez is the initial aggressor in the round, taking it to Costa with punches and kicks. Costa pushes off with the ball of his foot, sending Rodriguez down to the mat for a second. Rodriguez jumps back up, elbows Costa in the noggin and initiates the clinch. Costa breaks free and plants a body kick on the side of his foe, and a second comes up short. Rodriguez jabs his way into a right hand, and Costa counters him with a clean right that drops Rodriguez to his knees. Rodriguez regains his footing and clinches heavily, and he fights off a sweep attempt and turns to avoid a slashing elbow when back tied up. They continue to deliver short strikes to one another, and Rodriguez lands his foot sweep and places Costa on his back. Costa returns upright after a second, where he re-engages in a clinch. Rodriguez ducks down for a level change, and Costa knees Rodriguez in the side of the head and hurts him badly. Rodriguez scrambles to try to keep himself in the fight and not taking much more damage, and he lets Costa’s punches rebound off his guard. Costa wraps up an unusual arm-in guillotine choke from the side, partially a bulldog choke, and Rodriguez stays composed and twists out of it. Costa throws Rodriguez to his back, blood streaming down the left eye of “CeeRod,” and he postures up to jack Rodriguez up with elbows and punches. Rodriguez attempts a guillotine off his back to stop Costa from hitting him, but Costa breaks out of it and drops down more strikes including an axe kick to the chest before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 3
Rodriguez races out of his corner to engage, where he kicks his way into close range and sets up a trip. “CeeRod” hits the sweep—the same one he has been attempting the whole fight—and Costa finds himself on his back playing jiu-jitsu. The Brazilian looks for a kimura in hopes of sweeping, and although he takes a clean elbow on the melon, he turns the tables on Rodriguez and takes his back standing. They continue to roll and twist, and Rodriguez keeps Costa tied up and bullies him to the fencing. Rodriguez uses his elbows to fluster Costa from up close when not looking for another sweep, and he takes Costa off his feet for a moment. Costa climbs back up, elbows his foe in the chin and frames off to take a breath. Rodriguez is quick to impose his weight on him, and he trips Costa up again for good measure. Costa stands and avoids an elbow that soars at him, and he gets pulled back to the floor. Rodriguez tries to take his back, and he slides off. “CeeRod” races back to his feet and rails Costa with a right hand, stunning him for a moment and giving him openings to find more punches and a step-in knee. Costa pushes off with a front kick, and Rodriguez shrugs at him. Costa knees him again, but not before getting clipped with a barrage of punches. Costa whiffs on a two-punch flurry and hits his back from an easy foot sweep from Rodriguez. Rodriguez sits up in the guard and drops down hammers, with Costa faded just enough to not offer resistance to force a standup. Rodriguez rains down a bombardment of hammerfists, including one raised from the ceiling all the way to the floor, and the crowd is loving it. Rodriguez keeps hammering away, and Costa survives to make it the distance.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Rodriguez)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Costa)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Rodriguez)

The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Christian Rodriguez via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Connor picks Rodriguez, noting his excellent wrestling and grappling defense against powerful wrestlers. He thinks Costa's structureless, erratic style will play into Rodriguez's hands, allowing him to show offensive wrestling. However, he cautions that Rodriguez can be too defensive on the feet, as seen against Julian Erosa.

"I'm definitely going to pick him. But I think it stands to be a little bit of a lumpier kind of fight."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Zane picks Rodriguez, emphasizing that he is a much better fighter than Costa. He notes that Rodriguez has feasted on raw fighters who expect to blow him out, and Costa's experience and guillotine threat are concerns but not enough to change the pick. Zane thinks Rodriguez deserves to be a bigger favorite.

"I'm definitely gotta pick him. He's just a much better fighter than Costa."
WIN vs Andre Fili
Submission R1 4:30 · UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · Feb 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andre Fili 0 7 of 24 29% 7 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
Melquizael Costa 0 27 of 56 48% 27 of 56 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andre Fili 0 7 of 24 29% 7 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
Melquizael Costa 0 27 of 56 48% 27 of 56 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andre Fili 7 of 24 29% 4 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 27 of 56 48% 3 of 25 10 of 13 14 of 18 26 of 55 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andre Fili 7 of 24 29% 4 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 27 of 56 48% 3 of 25 10 of 13 14 of 18 26 of 55 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Melquizael Costa vs. Andre Fili

Round 1
A veritable chasm of UFC-level experience separates the next two featherweights, with grizzled Team Alpha Male product Fili (24-11, 1 NC; 12-10, 1 NC UFC) looking to hold the line and remind folks he is still very much a factor. Like Fili, Costa’s (21-7, 2-2 UFC) tenure thus far has been somewhat inconsistent but fairly violent. Referee Jeff Hoiby draws the charge between the two, and the local man Fili has no time for a glove touch as he wants to get going immediately. Fili chases his foe around the cage, looking for his jab. Costa backs him off briefly with a pair of high kicks, and he doubles up on leg kicks as well. Fili walks through everything pitched at him to sling leather, including a right left hand that zips through his guard. “Let’s go Fili” chants boom through the building, and they both fire off head kicks. Fili’s gets his foe’s attention, with Costa smiling at him. They decide to throw caution to the wind for a moment and brawl with no interest in defense, and they tag one another cleanly but do not budge. Costa backs off and fires off a wheel kick, and he settles himself to chop at the Washington-based fighter’s knee with oblique kicks. Costa rips a kick to the ribs as Fili is marching ever forward, and he narrowly evades getting his chin checked with a low kick but still walks into a left hook. Fili blocks a high kick but cannot stop a body kick, and he plods forward, energized by “USA” chants. Fili whiffs on a head kick, unable to lock his foe down, and he brushes his shoulder when Costa misses as well. Fili blocks a kick and hurls one right back, and Costa breathes a sight of relief and strikes back with a high kick. Fili motions that he protected himself from it, and Costa stays on his bike prodding with oblique kicks. Fili connects with a heavy body kick, dodges one that comes back and makes a matador motion. Fili takes a kick and shoots in for a takedown, and when he hits it,
Costa wraps up a guillotine choke and wrenches with all his might. The Brazilian clings to the choke, which is not going anywhere as he has it tight as a drum with his right leg wrapped around Fili’s waist. Fili is fine until suddenly he is not, and he frantically taps out.
The stunned audience is silenced in a second, as the hometown fighter surrenders from the submission and walks off disappointed that he got caught. Meanwhile, Costa has just earned the biggest win of his career, and he goes off to celebrate with teammate Joanderson Brito who previously put Fili away in the first round.

The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Andre Fili R1 4:30 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 17, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Big Brady picks the underdog Melquizael Costa, noting that Andre Fili's durability is declining after many wars, and he was dropped and knocked out recently. He thinks Costa is younger, has more tools on the feet with hard kicks to head, legs, and body, and has solid grappling with seven takedowns in his last three fights. He expects a close fight going to decision, with Costa winning a close decision.

by decision
"I'm going toide with the underdog here in in Mel Costa so give me Mel Costa to win the fight I think it's going to be close though I think it's going to be close I think it goes 15"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Andre Fili

The host acknowledges the fight is close as odds indicate, but believes Fili's strength of schedule, experience, and unorthodox striking will shut down Costa's grappling. He expects Fili to win on the scorecards, possibly by split decision.

"I believe ph's strength of schedule experience and unorthodox striking approach will be enough for him to shut down the grappling of Costa really touching him up from distance and winning this fight on the scorecards but I wouldn't be …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Feb 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Andre Fili

The Guru hesitantly picks Fili, noting he never likes picking him but sees Costa as getting 'fraud checked'. He values Fili's win over Cub Swanson and thinks Costa's loss to Thiago Moisés is a bad look. He expects Fili to mix in grappling in the second and third rounds and win a close decision.

"I'm going to have to do it again we ride Andre Philly Pickers we ride again"
Submission (face crank) R3 1:50 · UFC on ESPN: Perez vs. Taira · Jun 15, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Melquizael Costa 0 16 of 35 45% 76 of 106 2 of 2 100% 2 1 3:00
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 0 6 of 8 75% 20 of 28 4 of 10 40% 1 2 6:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Melquizael Costa 0 4 of 7 57% 31 of 39 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:28
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 0 1 of 2 50% 9 of 12 3 of 4 75% 1 0 3:52
2 Melquizael Costa 0 6 of 16 37% 31 of 46 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:41
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 0 3 of 4 75% 7 of 11 1 of 4 25% 0 2 2:34
3 Melquizael Costa 0 6 of 12 50% 14 of 21 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:51
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 0 2 of 2 100% 4 of 5 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Melquizael Costa 16 of 35 45% 8 of 20 5 of 10 3 of 5 8 of 22 5 of 7 3 of 6
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 6 of 8 75% 4 of 6 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 6 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Melquizael Costa 4 of 7 57% 1 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 3 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 1
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Melquizael Costa 6 of 16 37% 4 of 9 2 of 5 0 of 2 1 of 8 5 of 7 0 of 1
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 3 of 4 75% 1 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Melquizael Costa 6 of 12 50% 3 of 7 3 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 8 0 of 0 3 of 4
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Melquizael Costa vs. Nuerdanbieke Shayilan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-170), Shayilan (+142)

Round 1
The prelims continue with a featherweight contest featuring two men with plenty of experience despite their young ages. At 27, Costa (20-7, 1-2 UFC) is attempting to even his UFC record to .500, while the 30-year-old Shayilan (39-11, 3-2 UFC) aims to make his 51st pro outing a successful one. The third man in the Octagon will be referee Mike Beltran, and the fight kicks off with no plan of a glove touch. Costa jabs his way forward and tosses out a low kick, and Shayilan hops out of the way. Costa kicks low a second time, and Shayilan counters him with a long right hand. Costa lazily reaches out with a right hand, and Shayilan ducks it and hits an easy double-leg takedown to put the vibrantly haired featherweight on his back. Costa turns to his side and looks for a kimura sweep, and he cranks on the submission from his back. “Wolverine” is calm, cool and collected, and he shrugs off the two-on-one wrist lock to keep his arm in good position. Before he burns his arms out, Costa lets go, and he explodes back to his knees and to his feet. Shayilan hits a quick mat return and loops as hook in to take Costa’s back standing. Costa leans himself against the cage wall, so Shayilan snags the body lock and hurls Costa to the floor. Costa climbs back up, and Shayilan uses sheer muscle to toss Costa down once more. Costa turns quickly to swirl around and take the Chinese fighter’s back, and Shayilan counters with a kneebar out of nowhere. Costa defends the leglock by pulling on Shayilan’s knee to try to free his limb, and he stands up and punches down to force the submission apart. Shayilan sits up and attacks a double, and he presses Costa against the cage when he cannot ground him. Using a trip, Shayilan chucks Costa to the mat, and Costa rolls through and even threatens briefly with his own leglock before Shayilan turns through it. Shayilan climbs on top, and Costa responds with short elbows. As Costa is warned for striking the back of the head, the round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shayilan
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Shayilan
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Shayilan

Round 2
Costa moves right to the center of the cage to start the round, and he walks down Shayilan and pushes out a front kick that is just short of the intended target. Shayilan pursues a level change while Costa kicks at him, and he succeeds in dumping the Brazilian to the floor. Shayilan steps into the guard and thumps his man with an elbow, and Costa replies with a few off his back before rolling to try to get hold of an armlock using his legs. Costa bursts out of the position flat on his back to turn to the side, and he grabs hold of an ankle and trips Shayilan up to put him on his seat. Costa drags Shayilan away from the cage, and Shayilan times this explosion to flip around and get on Costa’s back. Costa stands up and turns to shed the Chinese fighter from his back, and they settle for a clinch. Shayilan shoots deep for a single, and Costa turns the corner to stuff it and somehow get hold of Shayilan. Costa ends up dragging Shayilan down from behind, and he wriggle his left arm around the chin for a moment. Shayilan defends the submission and turns all the way through to reestablish top position. Costa considers a triangle choke setup, but Shayilan tosses it aside. Costa uses this moment to power back to his feet, and Shayilan remains stuck on him like fly paper. Costa works the body with a few knees, and he is forced to stop a sudden level change. Shayilan fails on a second takedown try, and he takes a high kick upside the head that draws an immediate lump by the side of his eye. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shayilan
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 3
The last round kicks off with Costa throwing single kicks one after the other. Shayilan parries them and circles away from the power, and he ducks a head kick that zips past him. Costa scores a body kick and eats a two-punch combo for his effort, and attacks the body a second time. Shayilan drops all the way down to the ankle to try to trip Costa up, but Costa turns him over and bowls the Chinese fighter to the floor. Shayilan explodes back to his knees, and Costa hangs on from behind before dragging Shayilan down and getting both hooks in.
“Melk” uses a fierce rear-naked choke grip, squeezing it on top of the chin, but it is extremely tight and quite dangerous. Shayilan’s eyes go wide, as he is surprised at just how powerful the face crank is from the Brazilian. Using palm-to-palm grip, he crushes the submission with every remaining bit of his energy.
Rather than grit it out, Shayilan decides to tap with his fist a few times. This is a huge win for Costa, who now celebrates a perfectly even distribution of victory: seven knockouts, seven submissions and seven decisions. This also marks the seventh time that Shayilan has been submitted.

The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Nuerdanbieke Shayilan R3 1:50 via Submission (Face Crank)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Angelo picks Mel Costa but at very low confidence, noting that Costa is the better fighter but makes poor decisions by wrestling when he should strike. He worries Costa can be pushed around and taken down by Shayilan's bully style. He emphasizes that Costa's wrestling should be plan B, not plan A, and that if he engages in clinch work, Shayilan will drag him to the ground.

"I am going to pick Mel Costa but at insanely very low confidence"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Cody picks Melquizael Costa, noting his striking volume and movement, but is concerned about his last performance where he gassed out against Steve Garcia. He thinks Costa can outwork Nuerdanbieke if he fights smart and doesn't overuse wrestling. Cody expects Costa to win a decision but is not highly confident.

"the pick will be Mel Costa but as you can tell it's just another fight that you don't have a ton of confidence in."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Daniel Vreeland is not high on Melquizael Costa, calling him overrated and lacking killer instinct. He favors Shayilan Nuerdanbieke's power and wrestling, though he notes gassing issues. He believes Nuerdanbieke can hurt Costa or at least win the first round, and calls it a dog-or-pass situation.

"I'm going go shyan to to get an upset here"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Jacob picks Shayilan, expecting a wrestling vs. jiu-jitsu battle where Shayilan's powerful control wrestling will be key. He thinks Shayilan can get takedowns and keep control for at least two rounds to win a decision. He notes that if Costa is ever in a scramble when Shayilan is tired, Costa is more dangerous, but overall favors Shayilan's wrestling.

"I'm going with Shayilan I think that it's going to be a just a wrestling takedown and then it's going to be Mel trying to do that jiu-jitsu thing off his back"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Costa's movement and Jiu-Jitsu should keep him out of trouble from Nuerdanbieke. As long as Costa stays conscious early, his Jiu-Jitsu will outlast Nuerdanbieke, who will slow down, allowing Costa to take control and potentially find a submission.

"Mel Kaz Costa I think his movement and his Jiu-Jitsu will keep him out of too much trouble from nerd and Becca as long as Costa can stay conscious early here I expect his Jiu-Jitsu and his move to uh …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Paul picks Melquizael Costa, citing his superior striking and range management. He notes that Nuerdanbieke has power but low volume and may rely on wrestling. Paul thinks Costa can win with volume if he keeps the fight standing, but is not confident due to Costa's gas tank issues.

"Mel Costa will also be the pick for me but not very confident in that pick."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 11, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

The MMA Guru picks Melquizael Costa because he believes Costa is better on the feet, with nasty front kicks, head kicks, and question mark kicks. He thinks Shayilan's ground game is not dominant enough to expose Costa's weaknesses, and that Shayilan's style of trading hooks and shooting double legs won't work. He notes both have lost to Steve Garcia.

"I think Malik quaz El Costa is better on the feet than shaan NM Beck and I don't think that shaan has that dominant of a ground game to expose the ground game of Malik wasel Costa"
LOSS vs Steve Garcia
KO (elbows) R2 1:01 · UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · Dec 09, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Steve Garcia 1 29 of 49 59% 41 of 66 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:46
Melquizael Costa 0 6 of 10 60% 20 of 25 2 of 10 20% 0 0 4:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Steve Garcia 0 4 of 11 36% 12 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Melquizael Costa 0 5 of 7 71% 19 of 22 2 of 9 22% 0 0 4:41
2 Steve Garcia 1 25 of 38 65% 29 of 43 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:46
Melquizael Costa 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Steve Garcia 29 of 49 59% 26 of 45 2 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 10 3 of 8 22 of 31
Melquizael Costa 6 of 10 60% 1 of 5 2 of 2 3 of 3 2 of 3 4 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Steve Garcia 4 of 11 36% 3 of 9 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 7 1 of 4 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 5 of 7 71% 0 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 3 1 of 2 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Steve Garcia 25 of 38 65% 23 of 36 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 3 2 of 4 22 of 31
Melquizael Costa 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Melquizael Costa vs. Steve Garcia
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-275), Garcia (+225)

Round 1
The predominant method of victory for these two fighters—now competing at lightweight due to the short-notice nature of their rescheduled pairing—is the knockout. Referee Chris Tognoni should don his hard hat before going out against these two sluggers. “Mean Machine” Garcia (14-5, 3-2 UFC) has performed his last six victories via strikes, while LFA vet Costa (20-6, 1-1 UFC) has earned two of his last three wins by knockout. Before the fists fly, they meet together in a sporting manner. Garcia springs forward, but he pulls back before engaging. On his second advance, Garcia throws caution to the wind, winging big punches. Costa shimmies to the side and allows Garcia to push past him, and he hooks his leg around Garcia’s and tries to drag him down to the floor. Costa elects to lift Garcia up and slam him to the mat, but “Mean Machine” moves back up to his feet quickly. Costa clings to Garcia from behind relentlessly, and Garcia tries to defend with no-look elbows. Costa knees Garcia in the backside and upper thigh as he pressures his man, and Garcia responds with elbows on the thigh. Costa whips Garcia to a knee, and Garcia considers grabbing the fence but at the last second just points at it. Costa forces his man down to a knee again, but Garcia springs up with no ill effects. Costa continues to embrace the grind from behind, shutting down any offense from Garcia and forcing him to spend energy in strange exchanges. When Costa looks to get a hook in, Garcia shucks it off. Costa peppers with knees until scooping Garcia up and dumping him down once more. Garcia powers back upright, and he wiggles and wriggles but cannot escape. Costa trips Garcia out but is unable to keep him grounded for more than a second, and he stays in this position until the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 2
Garcia comes out of his corner angrily, and he swings violently and connects with a few of his shots. Costa responds as the two engage in a mad brawl, with punches and elbows flailing in all directions. Garcia wings a left and a right, catching Costa and knocking him down to the canvas. “Mean Machine” follows him to the mat and drives down a vicious elbow, splitting Costa wide open, and Costa is in a bad way. Garcia smashes his man with fists and sharp elbows, and blood sprays around the canvas. Costa turns over and gives up his back, and Garcia snatches up a rear-naked choke. Perhaps due to the blood flow, Costa is able to slide out of the choke and turns to his back.
Garcia postures up, in full mount, and he demolishes “Melky” with three ruthless elbows. Tognoni halts the fight, with Costa out or very nearly out.
When Garcia dismounts his defeated adversary, Costa tries to take Tognoni down, and he is deep in on a single. Tognoni displays excellent takedown defense as officials flood the cage, with one very loud shouting at Costa to wake him back up. Costa realizes that he is trying to take down a referee and that the fight is over, and he surrenders.

The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Melquizael Costa R2 1:01 via KO (Elbows)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Cody picks Melquizael Costa. He notes that Costa is a volume puncher and Garcia is a knockout-or-bust fighter. Cody points out that Garcia has poor defense and gets rocked in his wins and losses. He thinks Costa's volume and durability will be key. Cody is suspicious that the line hasn't moved despite Garcia pulling out last week due to illness and moving up a weight class. He still favors Costa.

"I like Costa I'm playing Costa cost going to be high up there but it almost favors a little bit Garcia a little bit better"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Paul picks Melquizael Costa. He notes that he liked Costa last week and nothing has changed. Paul points out that Garcia has a history of missing weight and was sick last week, but now fights at lightweight without cutting weight. He thinks Garcia's power is a threat but Costa's volume and durability should win out. Paul is not taking Garcia just because of the circumstances.

"him getting sick and pulling out of a fight last week did not cause me to change my pick this week to suddenly take him so no no not taking Steve Garcia gonna stick with M Costa"
Expert Picks (3)
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 17, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Big Brady picks the underdog Melquizael Costa, noting that Andre Fili's durability is declining after many wars, and he was dropped and knocked out recently. He thinks Costa is younger, has more tools on the feet with hard kicks to head, legs, and body, and has solid grappling with seven takedowns in his last three fights. He expects a close fight going to decision, with Costa winning a close decision.

by decision
"I'm going toide with the underdog here in in Mel Costa so give me Mel Costa to win the fight I think it's going to be close though I think it's going to be close I think it goes 15"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Andre Fili

The host acknowledges the fight is close as odds indicate, but believes Fili's strength of schedule, experience, and unorthodox striking will shut down Costa's grappling. He expects Fili to win on the scorecards, possibly by split decision.

"I believe ph's strength of schedule experience and unorthodox striking approach will be enough for him to shut down the grappling of Costa really touching him up from distance and winning this fight on the scorecards but I wouldn't be surprised if it comes by split"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Feb 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Andre Fili

The Guru hesitantly picks Fili, noting he never likes picking him but sees Costa as getting 'fraud checked'. He values Fili's win over Cub Swanson and thinks Costa's loss to Thiago Moisés is a bad look. He expects Fili to mix in grappling in the second and third rounds and win a close decision.

"I'm going to have to do it again we ride Andre Philly Pickers we ride again"
Comments (2)
BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Fili is at his most dangerous underrated

BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Costa worked it. Andre body was soft and tapped to a gully?