Career Averages - Danny Silva
Career Averages - Lucas Almeida
Danny Silva - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurtis Campbell | 0 | 17 of 41 | 41% | 17 of 43 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:56 |
| Danny Silva | 2 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 20 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kurtis Campbell | 0 | 15 of 36 | 41% | 15 of 38 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:56 |
| Danny Silva | 0 | 6 of 20 | 30% | 9 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:56 | |
| 2 | Kurtis Campbell | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Danny Silva | 2 | 10 of 12 | 83% | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurtis Campbell | 17 of 41 | 41% | 12 of 29 | 2 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Danny Silva | 16 of 32 | 50% | 11 of 26 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 23 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kurtis Campbell | 15 of 36 | 41% | 10 of 24 | 2 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 13 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Danny Silva | 6 of 20 | 30% | 3 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 17 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Kurtis Campbell | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Danny Silva | 10 of 12 | 83% | 8 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo picks Kurtis Campbell because of his excellent wrestling and BJJ, expecting him to shoot takedowns repeatedly. He acknowledges Danny Silva is tough and has good takedown defense, but believes Campbell's wrestling will be the difference, especially fighting in England.
Big Brady is confident in Kurtis Campbell, praising his well-rounded skills, nasty ground and pound, and high ceiling. He notes that Campbell is only 23 and the hometown favorite. He thinks Campbell will mix in takedowns and get into dominant positions, but Danny Silva is extremely tough and won't be knocked out. He predicts a decision win for Campbell.
Cody echoes Paul, noting Campbell's diverse arsenal and Silva's defensive liabilities. He expects Campbell to get the job done.
Connor picks Silva as well, echoing Zane's reasoning. He notes that Silva is a fast athlete with volume, but has no sense of pace and makes exchanges he doesn't need to. Connor trusts Silva's athleticism and technique over Campbell's, but admits Campbell could win if Silva fails to dissuade his pressure. He calls Campbell a 'male Jillian Robertson' who relies on grappling.
Daniel Vreeland picks Charlie Campbell to win his UFC debut. He praises Campbell's wrestling, top pressure, and mental toughness, while criticizing Silva's tendency to fade after the first round. He expects Campbell to take Silva down and control the fight.
Daniel likes Campbell's maturity and mindset, comparing him to younger prospects like Vallejos. He thinks Campbell's pressure and mixing of strikes will overwhelm Silva, who tends to fade after the first round. He expects Campbell to win by decision or submission.
Silva has elite cardio, toughness, and durability, which will trouble debutant Campbell. Campbell is more skilled but hasn't faced someone with Silva's pressure. Silva should win if he can survive early rounds and push pace. The odds are too wide; Silva is the value bet.
James picks Charlie Campbell, praising his high fight IQ and well-rounded skills. He thinks Campbell's grappling and ability to make the right decisions will be key. He notes that Silva is tough but lacks standout skills, while Campbell has multiple weapons.
The host is confident in Kurtis Campbell winning by finish (TKO or submission). He praises Campbell's relentless pressure, grappling, and strength, while Silva is seen as a technical striker without knockout power. He expects Campbell to mix in takedowns and dominate on the ground, leading to a finish.
Paul likes Campbell's power, volume, and youth, while Silva is a generalist who struggles in close fights. He expects Campbell to win by decision or late finish.
The MMA Guru picks Kurtis Campbell to win by second-round submission. He praises Campbell's well-roundedness and ability to hurt opponents with seemingly light shots. He notes Silva has a good chin but has taken damage and has scar tissue, and Campbell's dynamic striking and grappling will be too much. He expects Campbell to open Silva up and find a rear-naked choke.
Zane picks Silva but is hesitant because Silva has a tendency to keep opponents in fights despite being athletically superior. He notes that Silva is faster and stronger than anyone Campbell has faced, and has good striking, but he lets opponents stay competitive. Zane trusts Silva's skills over Campbell's, as Campbell's wins are against low-level competition and he relies on bullying. However, he acknowledges Campbell could win if Silva makes characteristic mistakes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Vallejos | 0 | 69 of 164 | 42% | 73 of 168 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Danny Silva | 0 | 90 of 229 | 39% | 90 of 230 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Vallejos | 0 | 10 of 39 | 25% | 10 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Danny Silva | 0 | 19 of 54 | 35% | 19 of 55 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Kevin Vallejos | 0 | 22 of 50 | 44% | 25 of 53 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Danny Silva | 0 | 35 of 81 | 43% | 35 of 81 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 3 | Kevin Vallejos | 0 | 37 of 75 | 49% | 38 of 76 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Danny Silva | 0 | 36 of 94 | 38% | 36 of 94 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Vallejos | 69 of 164 | 42% | 51 of 135 | 12 of 17 | 6 of 12 | 68 of 160 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Danny Silva | 90 of 229 | 39% | 60 of 184 | 27 of 41 | 3 of 4 | 81 of 217 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Vallejos | 10 of 39 | 25% | 4 of 25 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 7 | 10 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Danny Silva | 19 of 54 | 35% | 9 of 40 | 7 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 18 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kevin Vallejos | 22 of 50 | 44% | 15 of 41 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 22 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Danny Silva | 35 of 81 | 43% | 21 of 59 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 76 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kevin Vallejos | 37 of 75 | 49% | 32 of 69 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 36 of 72 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Danny Silva | 36 of 94 | 38% | 30 of 85 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 88 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Connor leans toward Vallejos, citing his clear pressure-counter game and methodical aggression. He believes Vallejos's sense of goal and pressure will help him win rounds, even if Silva is a faster athlete. Connor acknowledges Silva's tricky pot-shotting but thinks Vallejos's style is more likely to impose itself.
Lucrative James admits bias as a fan of Kevin Vallejos but provides analysis. He highlights Vallejos' impressive performance against Jean Silva, taking round one and showing durability. He believes Vallejos has superior power and boxing, and will land the harder shots, possibly scoring a knockdown or knockout. He acknowledges Danny Silva's wider skill set and takedowns but trusts Vallejos' pressure and power to win a decision or finish. He calls it a potential fight of the night.
Zane picks Silva, noting his good defensive instincts, angle cutting, and ability to frustrate opponents with pot shots. He believes Silva's style is well-suited to counter Vallejos's pressure, and that Vallejos may need to show more initiative to win. Zane also mentions Silva's only loss was a majority decision, indicating competitiveness.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Silva | 0 | 82 of 137 | 59% | 85 of 141 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 74 of 240 | 30% | 78 of 244 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Danny Silva | 0 | 24 of 43 | 55% | 27 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 17 of 52 | 32% | 18 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Danny Silva | 0 | 36 of 55 | 65% | 36 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 29 of 89 | 32% | 32 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Danny Silva | 0 | 22 of 39 | 56% | 22 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 28 of 99 | 28% | 28 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Silva | 82 of 137 | 59% | 45 of 96 | 14 of 18 | 23 of 23 | 81 of 133 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
| Lucas Almeida | 74 of 240 | 30% | 49 of 203 | 14 of 23 | 11 of 14 | 73 of 239 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Danny Silva | 24 of 43 | 55% | 9 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 13 of 13 | 24 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Lucas Almeida | 17 of 52 | 32% | 8 of 37 | 7 of 11 | 2 of 4 | 16 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Danny Silva | 36 of 55 | 65% | 21 of 38 | 9 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 35 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Lucas Almeida | 29 of 89 | 32% | 21 of 78 | 2 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 29 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Danny Silva | 22 of 39 | 56% | 15 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Lucas Almeida | 28 of 99 | 28% | 20 of 88 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 28 of 99 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Danny Silva, noting his durability and the fact that he showed wrestling as a backup plan in his last fight. He acknowledges that Silva's striking defense is terrible and he will get hit, but believes he can outlast Lucas Almeida and potentially use takedowns. He is hesitant due to Silva's poor striking defense and the high price tag.
Big Brady picks Danny Silva, citing his youth, durability, volume, and wrestling/grappling upside. He questions Lucas Almeida's ground game, noting he gets stuck on his back. He predicts Silva will mix in takedowns and submit Almeida in the second round.
The host believes many are overlooking the Brazilian's chances, especially at plus 160 odds. He expects Almeida to utilize his Muay Thai approach to cut up Danny Silva and impress the judges, winning a decision.
The Guru picks Danny Silva over Lucas Almeida. He likes Silva's toughness, grit, and cardio shown on the contender series and in his UFC debut. He views Almeida as a 50/50 fighter with mixed results, and favors the prospect Silva. He predicts a 29-28 decision in a back-and-forth scrap.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Silva | 0 | 87 of 202 | 43% | 89 of 205 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Josh Culibao | 0 | 45 of 107 | 42% | 56 of 119 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 1 | 0 | 5:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Danny Silva | 0 | 32 of 80 | 40% | 32 of 80 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Culibao | 0 | 11 of 28 | 39% | 12 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:25 | |
| 2 | Danny Silva | 0 | 27 of 55 | 49% | 28 of 57 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Josh Culibao | 0 | 11 of 30 | 36% | 13 of 32 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 | |
| 3 | Danny Silva | 0 | 28 of 67 | 41% | 29 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Culibao | 0 | 23 of 49 | 46% | 31 of 58 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Silva | 87 of 202 | 43% | 59 of 168 | 20 of 26 | 8 of 8 | 86 of 199 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Culibao | 45 of 107 | 42% | 28 of 82 | 11 of 18 | 6 of 7 | 44 of 106 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Danny Silva | 32 of 80 | 40% | 23 of 69 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 32 of 80 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Culibao | 11 of 28 | 39% | 6 of 22 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Danny Silva | 27 of 55 | 49% | 17 of 44 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 27 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Culibao | 11 of 30 | 36% | 10 of 25 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Danny Silva | 28 of 67 | 41% | 19 of 55 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 27 of 64 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Culibao | 23 of 49 | 46% | 12 of 35 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is surprised the line is -170 for Culibao, but he thinks Culibao is the much better fighter everywhere. Culibao is a solid, aggressive striker who throws with heat and is always live for a knockout, while Silva has clean technique but is not dangerous and can be taken down. He notes Culibao looked terrible in his last loss but still expects him to win, and advises jumping on the line early as it may widen.
Big Brady picks Danny Silva to win by third-round knockout. He likes Silva's relentless pressure and high volume, and thinks he can break Culibao, who has been finished before. He acknowledges Culibao's power but believes Silva's chin and pace will be too much.
Cody picks Danny Silva as the underdog, citing his high volume and durability. He notes Culibao has low output (career high 53 significant strikes) and no takedowns in the UFC. Silva throws volume and can outwork Culibao, though he may get caught. He sees Silva's activity swaying the judges.
The host expects a firefight on the feet but believes Culibao will eventually drag the fight to the ground and implement a submission-heavy game. He predicts Culibao will snatch a submission and mentions that the under 2.5 rounds is likely the best value.
Paul picks Josh Culibao, citing his experience and power. He is not impressed by Silva's regional competition and thinks Culibao can intercept Silva's recklessness with his own power. He acknowledges Silva's volume but believes Culibao's power and experience give him the edge.
The Guru picks Danny Silva, impressed by his contender series performance and pace. He criticizes Culibao's recent wins as unimpressive, noting he was manhandled by Jai Herbert and struggled against low-level opponents. He believes Silva's body shots and power will be key, and that Culibao is 'soft-bodied' and vulnerable. He also mentions Culibao took a beating from Lerone Murphy.
Lucas Almeida - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Aswell | 2 | 30 of 54 | 55% | 34 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucas Almeida | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Aswell | 2 | 30 of 54 | 55% | 34 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Almeida | 9 of 21 | 42% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Aswell | 30 of 54 | 55% | 30 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 19 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucas Almeida | 9 of 21 | 42% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Aswell | 30 of 54 | 55% | 30 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 19 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 16 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aswell (-150); Almeida (+125)
Round 1
Capping off the prelims is a featherweight contest that has raised some serious eyebrows in the last 24 hours. Almeida (15-4, 2-3 UFC) appeared at the weigh-ins with a right hand the size of a balloon, but the CABMMA—the Brazilian Commission—did not seem to deem that worthy of note. The betting line for Aswell (10-3, 0-1 UFC) has skyrocketed, and the optics do not look great. Referee Jason Herzog will serve as the sole arbiter of this bout, and the athletes do opt to touch gloves.
Aswell surges out of his corner ready to trade, and he walks down the Brazilian and slugs him in the face. The shorter Aswell gets inside early, setting up a few big right hands. Almeida reels from getting tagged from the overhand rights, and his eye is showing a little swelling already. Almeida backs off putting the cage behind him, and he leans back to take the sting out of Aswell’s punches but is taking punishment. Aswell knocks Almeida to his seat with a massive right hand, and Almeida climbs back up right into the left hand of his opponent. The Brazilian tries to throw back when he can, but Aswell is beating him to the punch and hurting him practically every time he touches him.
Aswell drives down a few hammerfists, and he switches to straight-up punches and an elbow or two. Herzog asks Almeida to fight back, but he is done like dinner after multiple knockdowns and a lot of head trauma.
With Aswell seated in full mount raining down punishment, Herzog has no choice but to step in and stop the “Beatdown of the Year” candidate. Not only did it appear that Almeida could not swing his right hand, but he rarely used it to defend himself. Brazilians are no longer undefeated tonight, but Almeida have been the most vulnerable of the bunch on the card given his apparent condition.
The Official Result
Michael Aswell def. Lucas Almeida R1 1:42 via TKO (Punches and Elbow)
Angelo picks Michael Aswell, citing his relentless pressure and high volume of strikes. He believes Aswell's pressure will overwhelm Lucas, who will be looking for big shots and getting hit multiple times in return. He notes Aswell's insane 9.1 significant strikes landed per minute.
Big Brady picks Lucas Almeida to win a decision, citing Almeida's power advantage and the fight being in Brazil. He notes Aswell lands high volume but lacks power, and that Almeida's big leg kicks and power shots will sway the judges. He expects a close fight going to the scorecards, with crowd reactions favoring Almeida.
Cody originally took Almeida but switched to Aswell, citing age and weight cut advantages. He notes Aswell's high volume and Almeida's lack of wrestling, but expects a close fight that could be influenced by Brazilian judging. He recommends the split decision prop.
Manpreet picks Aswell, citing Almeida's downward trajectory and Aswell's basic but effective striking and forward pressure. He believes Aswell will walk Almeida down, land his jab and cross, and win a decision. He notes Aswell's durability and full training camp at his natural weight class.
Paul picks Aswell, citing his youth, volume striking, and natural weight class. He notes Almeida's poor takedown defense and weight cut issues, but expects a close fight that could go to split decision. He suggests a split decision prop.
The MMA Guru picks Lucas Almeida over Michael Aswell, believing the odds are incorrect. He notes Aswell couldn't finish Bellagio and has lost recently, while Almeida had a close fight with Danny Silva. He predicts Almeida wins by finish or decision as an underdog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Silva | 0 | 82 of 137 | 59% | 85 of 141 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 74 of 240 | 30% | 78 of 244 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Danny Silva | 0 | 24 of 43 | 55% | 27 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 17 of 52 | 32% | 18 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Danny Silva | 0 | 36 of 55 | 65% | 36 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 29 of 89 | 32% | 32 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Danny Silva | 0 | 22 of 39 | 56% | 22 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 28 of 99 | 28% | 28 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Silva | 82 of 137 | 59% | 45 of 96 | 14 of 18 | 23 of 23 | 81 of 133 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
| Lucas Almeida | 74 of 240 | 30% | 49 of 203 | 14 of 23 | 11 of 14 | 73 of 239 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Danny Silva | 24 of 43 | 55% | 9 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 13 of 13 | 24 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Lucas Almeida | 17 of 52 | 32% | 8 of 37 | 7 of 11 | 2 of 4 | 16 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Danny Silva | 36 of 55 | 65% | 21 of 38 | 9 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 35 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Lucas Almeida | 29 of 89 | 32% | 21 of 78 | 2 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 29 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Danny Silva | 22 of 39 | 56% | 15 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Lucas Almeida | 28 of 99 | 28% | 20 of 88 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 28 of 99 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Danny Silva, noting his durability and the fact that he showed wrestling as a backup plan in his last fight. He acknowledges that Silva's striking defense is terrible and he will get hit, but believes he can outlast Lucas Almeida and potentially use takedowns. He is hesitant due to Silva's poor striking defense and the high price tag.
Big Brady picks Danny Silva, citing his youth, durability, volume, and wrestling/grappling upside. He questions Lucas Almeida's ground game, noting he gets stuck on his back. He predicts Silva will mix in takedowns and submit Almeida in the second round.
The host believes many are overlooking the Brazilian's chances, especially at plus 160 odds. He expects Almeida to utilize his Muay Thai approach to cut up Danny Silva and impress the judges, winning a decision.
The Guru picks Danny Silva over Lucas Almeida. He likes Silva's toughness, grit, and cardio shown on the contender series and in his UFC debut. He views Almeida as a 50/50 fighter with mixed results, and favors the prospect Silva. He predicts a 29-28 decision in a back-and-forth scrap.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 59 of 116 | 50% | 73 of 136 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Timmy Cuamba | 1 | 70 of 196 | 35% | 91 of 220 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucas Almeida | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 13 of 26 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| Timmy Cuamba | 1 | 22 of 59 | 37% | 30 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 | |
| 2 | Lucas Almeida | 0 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 22 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Timmy Cuamba | 0 | 32 of 84 | 38% | 36 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 3 | Lucas Almeida | 0 | 24 of 46 | 52% | 38 of 66 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Timmy Cuamba | 0 | 16 of 53 | 30% | 25 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Almeida | 59 of 116 | 50% | 35 of 87 | 14 of 17 | 10 of 12 | 48 of 100 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 16 |
| Timmy Cuamba | 70 of 196 | 35% | 43 of 153 | 13 of 28 | 14 of 15 | 65 of 190 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucas Almeida | 13 of 26 | 50% | 6 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Timmy Cuamba | 22 of 59 | 37% | 13 of 42 | 3 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 21 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Lucas Almeida | 22 of 44 | 50% | 14 of 33 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 22 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Timmy Cuamba | 32 of 84 | 38% | 18 of 66 | 9 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 28 of 79 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Lucas Almeida | 24 of 46 | 52% | 15 of 35 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 13 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 16 |
| Timmy Cuamba | 16 of 53 | 30% | 12 of 45 | 1 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cuamba (-205), Almeida (+170)
Round 1
When he punted Michael Stack at the beginning of February, “Twilight Timmy” Cuamba (8-2, 0-1 UFC) could have scarcely predicted his UFC debut would come one week later. While it did not go his way against Bolaji Oki, Cuamba gets a second chance to make a first impression. He takes on aggressive Almeida (14-3, 1-2 UFC) and his 100% finish rate. Referee Mike Beltran dons his hard hat, and he tells the fighter’s it’s time to fight. The 145ers do not bother bumping fists, as Almeida wants to start something. He does that with a low kick, and he jabs the body shortly thereafter. Almeida cuts Cuamba off around the cage, walking him down and throwing a low kick. Cuamba pays him back with a speedy one-two, and he gets off a jab on the outside. Another one-two from “Twilight Timmy” finds its home on the chin, and Almeida shakes it off and continues pressuring. The Brazilian swipes out with a left hand, and he chips at the front leg with kicks. Cuamba stands his man up with a left hand, but the right misses. On the way back, Cuamba plants a stern kick on the lead leg of his adversary. Almeida jabs with the fall of his foot, and a ferocious one-two stuns Cuamba and sits him down. Almeida tries to pound him out with ground strikes while leaning on Cuamba, but Cuamba does not go all the way down and instead muscles his way back upright. Almeida keeps firing the right hand, drawing a shot in response from the Las Vegas native. Almeida stands his foe up and knees him once before splitting off, and he returns to stalking mode. Two punches get around the guard, and Cuamba takes them flush and keeps retreating. Almeida tags him with another right hand to set him down, and Cuamba scrambles and gets up. To take some of the venom out of his foe’s shots, Cuamba presses Almeida against the cage wall for a time. Almeida escapes and starts potshotting Cuamba, until Cuamba is tired of the one-sided exchanges and starts brawling. Cuamba dislodges the mouthpiece of his foe, but Almeida puts on the pace with punches and a high kick that wraps up around the guard. Almeida ducks back to dodge a head kick, and he eats a right hand while plodding forward. Cuamba strikes the body a few times, and he makes it to the end of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Almeida
Round 2
Almeida is loaded for bear to start off the second round, as he gets right back to cutting Cuamba off while throwing hands. Cuamba sits down on single strikes, thumping a left to the body and one to the head. Almeida lunges forward, and Cuamba counters him with a sharp left. Cuamba checks a low kick and tosses one back, and they trade jabs shortly thereafter. The jabs are landed again at the same time, and Cuamba again targets the liver with a left. Almeida steps through a punch to wing three of his own, and he scores a solid low kick. They both start swinging bungalows, and Almeida catches Cuamba with a clean left hand that drops “Twilight Timmy” to a knee. Cuamba sits up and rushes after a single-leg takedown, but Almeida is able to shove him away without much concern. Cuamba gets his sea legs with the successful dilatory tactic, but he is not slowing Almeida’s momentum. Almeida chops at his leg and walks through a jab to rifle off a right hand, and he slips a counter jab. Almeida sinks in a left hand and laughs off a leg kick, and a one-two along with two hooks at least partially connect. Almeida surges into a left hand, and he clips Cuamba once more as he lines up punches to the head and then body. Cuamba strafes away, and Almeida is on him with a left to the body and right to the head. Cuamba’s legs wobble, but Almeida is buttering his bread as he seems to find that right hand any time he wants. Cuamba scrambles to the side, and Almeida plants two fists and a head kick up top right before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Round 3
The fighters reach the last round and share a brief glove touch, and Almeida returns quickly to his predatory best. Walking Cuamba down, throwing jabs, follow-up punches, leg kicks and the occasional power strike, Almeida beats Cuamba to the punch while not getting answered by anything overly concerning. Cuamba slams a kick to the ribs, but it is one-and-done as Almeida walks him down. Cuamba shoots for a single, and he drags the Brazilian to his seat but does not establish control. Almeida turns the corner and pushes down on the back of Cuamba’s head to stop him from going anywhere until he moves enough to escape and reset. Almeida jabs the head and body without fear of reprisal, and he shrugs off a front kick to pump out more jabs. Cuamba lands at the end of a right hand, drawing a wide counter from his foe. They both jab at one another, and Almeida’s range gives up the upper hand. Cuamba lands once, but Almeida rings him up for four in the same flurry. Almeida just misses with a high kick, and they double jab at one another. Almeida hacks at the front leg and absorbs a body kick, and the two start swinging recklessly. Cuamba catches his adversary with a left hook, and he moves to take the brunt out of the overhand right counter. Almeida collides his fist on the dome and spins with a wheel kick that buzzes the tower, and Cuamba decides two can spin and lands his own back kick on the belly. Cuamba closes in to strike, and although Almeida lands two on the inside, Cuamba uses the momentum and a trip to put the Brazilian on the canvas. Cuamba sits up and drops down a few punches and some fierce elbows, and he looks for a finish with seconds to go and rains down blows until time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (30-27 Almeida)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (30-27 Almeida)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cuamba (29-27 Almeida)
The Official Result
Lucas Almeida def. Timothy Cuamba via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Lucas Almeida as an underdog, citing his deeper resume and higher level of competition. He notes Lucas is a powerful striker who comes forward, while Timmy is more technical but less experienced. He thinks Lucas's power and chin could be the difference, though Timmy's accuracy is a concern. He mentions the plus 165 odds are appealing.
Cody picks Lucas Almeida as a dog, arguing that Cuamba is a low-volume striker who relies on a knockout and has shown poor cardio and wrestling. He notes that Almeida has better wins and has fought tougher competition, including a competitive fight with Daniel Zellhuber. Cody believes Almeida's volume and leg kicks can overwhelm Cuamba, and that the line is too wide for a fighter of Cuamba's level.
Daniel Vreeland is concerned about Lucas Almeida's recent performances, noting he only landed two strikes in his last fight and looked stiff. He speculates a possible health issue. He likes Timothy Cuamba's technical soundness and ability to fight everywhere, though he's not the most physical. He believes Cuamba can pick Almeida apart and mix in wrestling.
Jacob picks Timmy, thinking he is the more technical striker and could mix in takedowns against Lucas's poor takedown defense. He notes Timmy held his own against Bolaji on short notice. He acknowledges Lucas is more dangerous but believes Timmy's technique will prevail.
Cuamba's lateral movement will frustrate Almeida, opening up takedown opportunities and allowing Cuamba to land damage from distance. The line is too wide for someone taking a step up in competition, but Cuamba's potential and body of work should get the judges' favor.
Paul agrees with Cody, stating that Cuamba is a low-volume Contender Series guy and that he would never bet that type of fighter at minus 200. He notes that Almeida gave Zellhuber a tough fight and that plus 180 is generous. Paul thinks Almeida can win with volume and pressure.
The MMA Guru picks Timmy Cuamba by decision. He notes Cuamba stepped up on short notice in his debut against Boki and took him to a split decision, showing composure. He thinks Cuamba has been tested and that Lucas Almeida's wins have asterisks, including a first-round KO loss to Andre Fili. He believes Cuamba's experience against a larger, powerful opponent in Boki will help him handle Almeida's physicality.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 1 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 25 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 1 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 25 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 20 of 36 | 55% | 16 of 29 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 15 |
| Lucas Almeida | 10 of 25 | 40% | 1 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 13 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 20 of 36 | 55% | 16 of 29 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 15 |
| Lucas Almeida | 10 of 25 | 40% | 1 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 13 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Lucas Almeida as an underdog, citing his real power and killer instinct. He acknowledges Fili's talent but distrusts his chin and lack of wrestling usage. He does not bet because both fighters are unreliable.
Big Brady picks Lucas Almeida to win by second-round KO, despite acknowledging Fili's wrestling path. He notes Fili hasn't wrestled much recently and isn't a dominant grappler like Pat Sabatini, so he expects the fight to stay standing. Brady highlights Almeida's 100% finish rate and power, while Fili has been finished 5 times and has a questionable chin. He believes Almeida will land a knockout as an underdog.
Cody picks Fili, arguing that Almeida is hittable and walks in a straight line. He notes that Fili has good footwork, a jab, and can mix in wrestling. Cody believes Fili will outpoint Almeida by striking and using takedowns to secure rounds. He expects a decision win for Fili, as Almeida's takedown defense is suspect and Fili is the more well-rounded fighter.
Jeff Fox picks Lucas Almeida as his dog, explaining that Almeida is a better striker and is fighting a guy on a skid. He thinks Almeida is a worthy gamble at plus 145.
Lucrative James picks Lucas Almeida as the value side. He believes Andre Fili has clear deficiencies in striking defense and chin, getting hurt in almost every fight. He thinks Fili's path is via wrestling, but Fili often chooses to stand and bang. Almeida hits hard, has good durability, and Fili's tendency to get cracked makes Almeida the play at underdog odds.
The host leans toward Fili but is not confident due to the chalk. He believes Fili's experience and grappling advantage should be the difference, as he can take Almeida down and grind out a decision. However, he warns that if Fili chooses to strike, he could get knocked out. He expects Fili to shoot multiple takedowns and win a decision, avoiding his first losing streak in the UFC.
Paul picks Fili, agreeing that Fili is the more experienced and well-rounded fighter. He notes that Fili has faced much tougher competition and has multiple paths to victory. Paul believes Fili's wrestling and striking will be too much for Almeida, who is a banger but lacks defensive skills. He expects Fili to win by decision or potentially by submission.
The Guru picks Andre Fili over Lucas Almeida, noting Fili has looked good even in losses and has a reach and range advantage. He believes Almeida lacks the KO power to finish Fili and that Fili's wrestling will be a factor. He predicts a 29-28 decision win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Sabatini | 0 | 27 of 35 | 77% | 88 of 97 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 6:27 |
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pat Sabatini | 0 | 23 of 31 | 74% | 81 of 90 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:50 |
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Pat Sabatini | 0 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 7 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Sabatini | 27 of 35 | 77% | 25 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 31 |
| Lucas Almeida | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pat Sabatini | 23 of 31 | 74% | 23 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 30 |
| Lucas Almeida | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Pat Sabatini | 4 of 4 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Lucas Almeida | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sabatini (-190), Almeida (+160)
Round 1
In a fight that could end in the blink of an eye, submission specialist Sabatini (17-4, 4-1 UFC) takes on once-beaten finisher Almeida (14-1 1-0 UFC). Together, the two featherweights combine for 26 stoppages in their 31 pro wins, so referee Chris Tognoni could have his hands full. Before they throw down, they opt to bump fists. Almeida advances first, but Sabatini ducks any offense and pursues a quick takedown. Almeida fights off a trip attempt on the way back, and Sabatini looks for a body lock throw. Sabatini secures the drop, and he lands right in half guard while pinning Almeida to his back using his shoulder. Almeida sits up against the fence, but Sabatini hooks both his legs and peels him away from it. Sabatini smoothly maneuvers to keep Almeida trapped on the floor, and he drops down left hands. Sabatini pins Almeida’s right arm down to land several unanswered blows, and he frustrates the Brazilian with his active top control. When Almeida attempts to escape in some direction, Sabatini is aware and follows him every step of the way. Sabatini controls his foe and moves into mount briefly, while nullifying anything that Almeida can do to him. Sabatini leaps back into mount with 75 seconds left in the round, and he also traps Almeida’s arm behind the back and blasts him in the face with left hands. Sabatini hammers Almeida with a few elbows, and Almeida defenselessly takes them flush. Sabatini postures up and batters Almeida with punches and elbows, and Almeida is clinging to his foe with all he has left. Sabatini considers an armbar, but he thinks against it and elbows Almeida repeatedly. Sabatini smashes down with punches right to the bell, and Almeida has survived.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini
Round 2
Sabatini rushes out of his corner to tap gloves, and he immediately hunts for a single to make the Brazilian’s life miserable again. Almeida backs himself against the wall in defense, and Sabatini switches up to a body lock in pursuit of another trip. Sabatini drills a knee to the body and drops down low for a double, and he lets it go to snake his leg between Almeida’s. Sabatini successfully yanks Almeida to the floor, first bringing him to a knee and pushing him flat on his back. Sabatini slashes down with an elbow on the forehead to slice open a cut, and blood leaks down into Almeida’s eyes.
Sabatini transitions over to the side, man on a mission, and he sets up an arm-triangle choke while Almeida fails to clear his vision. The Philadelphia native locks it down and crushes with his shoulder and full body weight, and Almeida has no choice but to tap.
As Tognoni pulls them apart, Sabatini has just become the first fighter to ever finish the Brazilian featherweight, doing so in a spectacular and one-sided performance.
The Official Result
Pat Sabatini def. Lucas Almeida R2 1:48 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Angelo picks Pat Sabatini because he has a huge grappling advantage. He notes that Sabatini's chin is a concern after recent knockouts, but he has been recovering. Lucas Almeida has dangerous hands and good scramble skills, but Sabatini's takedowns and top control should be the difference. Angelo also considers a prop bet on Almeida inside the distance/decision no action.
Big Brady picks Lucas Almeida to win by first-round knockout. He likes both fighters but sees Almeida as a live dog due to his power and volume. Brady questions Sabatini's durability, noting he was hurt by Jamall Emmers and Damon Jackson. Almeida has a 100% finish rate and hits very hard, as seen in his fight with Daniel Zellhuber. Brady thinks Sabatini needs to wrestle early and often, but Almeida's takedown defense looks solid and he is physically strong. If Almeida can keep the fight standing for even a few minutes, he likely gets the knockout.
Cody is hesitant on Sabatini, acknowledging that Almeida has crushing power and improved cardio, and that Sabatini's chin is questionable. He notes that Sabatini's wrestling is good but not elite, and that he tends to stall rather than finish. Cody thinks Sabatini will likely get takedowns and control the fight, but it will be a butt-clencher because Almeida can shut the lights off at any time. He doesn't love the -200 price.
Connor also picks Sabatini, acknowledging that Almeida could KO him but trusting Sabatini's grappling. He notes that Sabatini is awkward on the feet but has shown the ability to recover and submit opponents after being hurt. Connor is less confident than he would like but sees Sabatini as the safer pick.
Daniel Levi leans toward Lucas Almeida, believing if the fight stays standing, Almeida will knock Sabatini out. He notes Sabatini's low volume and chin issues, citing knockouts by Damon Jackson and Jamall Emmers. However, he expresses hesitation because Sabatini's wrestling could neutralize Almeida, leading to a frustrating loss. He considers it a coin flip but prefers the dog.
Sabatini is the best grappler Almeida has faced. He should get takedowns and rack up control time, possibly even a submission. However, there is concern about how Sabatini rebounds from his knockout loss to Damon Jackson. Almeida has power but has shown grappling deficiencies. Sabatini wins by decision.
Paul is not laying -200 on Sabatini, calling him one-dimensional. He notes that Sabatini's takedowns are not always effective and that Almeida has power and durability. Paul thinks Almeida could be in big trouble if the fight stays on the feet, and he likes the plus money on Almeida. He also mentions a prop on Almeida by KO in round 1 at +700.
The MMA Guru picks Lucas Almeida over Pat Sabatini, arguing Sabatini doesn't do much with takedowns and has been stuffed before. He notes Almeida's durability and finishing ability, referencing his comeback win over Mike Trizano. He believes Almeida can survive bad positions on the ground and land a big shot on the feet.
Zane picks Sabatini despite concerns about his striking. He believes the grappling disparity is too wide and that Almeida takes too many risks standing, which will lead to Sabatini getting takedowns. Zane notes that Almeida has never faced a wrestler of Sabatini's caliber and that Sabatini can survive early trouble to win on the mat.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Almeida | 1 | 31 of 62 | 50% | 42 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Michael Trizano | 2 | 75 of 152 | 49% | 94 of 171 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucas Almeida | 1 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 20 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
| Michael Trizano | 0 | 21 of 52 | 40% | 26 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Lucas Almeida | 0 | 15 of 26 | 57% | 18 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Michael Trizano | 1 | 30 of 60 | 50% | 44 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:01 | |
| 3 | Lucas Almeida | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Trizano | 1 | 24 of 40 | 60% | 24 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Almeida | 31 of 62 | 50% | 17 of 45 | 12 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 26 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 5 |
| Michael Trizano | 75 of 152 | 49% | 32 of 95 | 16 of 22 | 27 of 35 | 54 of 121 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 31 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucas Almeida | 12 of 26 | 46% | 7 of 19 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 |
| Michael Trizano | 21 of 52 | 40% | 5 of 29 | 6 of 8 | 10 of 15 | 21 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Lucas Almeida | 15 of 26 | 57% | 7 of 18 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michael Trizano | 30 of 60 | 50% | 9 of 33 | 8 of 12 | 13 of 15 | 26 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | |
| 3 | Lucas Almeida | 4 of 10 | 40% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Trizano | 24 of 40 | 60% | 18 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 24 |
Angelo sees Michael Trizano as a fun pressure striker with power and fight IQ, who beats brawling strikers. Lucas Almeida is a powerful striker who headhunts and is not technical. Angelo likes Trizano in this matchup but doesn't love the -250 odds.
Big Brady picks Michael Trizano to win by decision. He thinks Trizano is more experienced and has fought better competition, and should weather Almeida's early storm. He notes Almeida has 100% finish rate and power, but Trizano has never been knocked out and has good takedown defense and cardio. He expects Trizano to take over in rounds 2 and 3 and win a decision, but is not confident due to Trizano's tendency to be in close fights.
Cody is uncertain, noting Almeida's cardio issues in his contender series fight and Trizano's takedown defense problems. He thinks Almeida might win the first round but Trizano could take over later. He says he'll wait for weigh-ins and jokingly checks Trizano's hairstyle for confidence.
Daniel Levi leans toward Lucas Almeida as a plus-money underdog, arguing that Trizano's price is inflated and that Almeida has knockout power and durability. He notes that Trizano often wins close decisions and that Almeida's wild style could land a fight-ending shot. He recommends a one-unit bet on Almeida at +200, as he sees value in the dog.
Paul picks Trizano but expresses hesitation, noting Almeida's wild style and potential cardio issues. He thinks Trizano's experience and veteran savvy will allow him to win a decision or late finish, but he's not confident enough to bet heavily.
The MMA Guru picks Lucas Almeida to win by rear-naked choke. He calls Almeida a 'finishing machine' with a 100% finish rate. He notes Trizano has been submitted before and is coming off a beating. He believes Almeida's wild style and momentum will overwhelm Trizano, and he sees Almeida as a good underdog pick on the card.
Expert Picks (4)
Angelo picks Danny Silva, noting his durability and the fact that he showed wrestling as a backup plan in his last fight. He acknowledges that Silva's striking defense is terrible and he will get hit, but believes he can outlast Lucas Almeida and potentially use takedowns. He is hesitant due to Silva's poor striking defense and the high price tag.
Big Brady picks Danny Silva, citing his youth, durability, volume, and wrestling/grappling upside. He questions Lucas Almeida's ground game, noting he gets stuck on his back. He predicts Silva will mix in takedowns and submit Almeida in the second round.
The host believes many are overlooking the Brazilian's chances, especially at plus 160 odds. He expects Almeida to utilize his Muay Thai approach to cut up Danny Silva and impress the judges, winning a decision.
The Guru picks Danny Silva over Lucas Almeida. He likes Silva's toughness, grit, and cardio shown on the contender series and in his UFC debut. He views Almeida as a 50/50 fighter with mixed results, and favors the prospect Silva. He predicts a 29-28 decision in a back-and-forth scrap.
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