vs
-198 +184
UFC Fight Night 253 · Mar 01, 2025 · Flyweight · Completed
UFC Fight Night 253 Next Fight
Age 32
Height 5' 5"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 32
Height 5' 4"
Reach 65.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Manel Kape
5.04 SLpM
56.0% Str. Acc.
4.08 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
0.4 TD Avg
30.0% TD Acc.
81.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Asu Almabayev
2.31 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
1.99 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
4.46 TD Avg
42.0% TD Acc.
44.0% TD Def.
1.5 Sub. Avg
Manel Kape
Moneyline
DraftKings -198
KO/TKO
BetRivers +210
Submission
FanDuel +1300
Decision
FanDuel +210
Asu Almabayev
Moneyline
FanDuel +184
KO/TKO
DraftKings +1800
Submission
DraftKings +1200
Decision
FanDuel +290
Manel Kape - Fight History
SCHED vs Kyoji Horiguchi
KO R1 3:18 · UFC on ESPN: Royval vs. Kape · Dec 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brandon Royval 0 17 of 26 65% 17 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Manel Kape 1 17 of 23 73% 18 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brandon Royval 0 17 of 26 65% 17 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Manel Kape 1 17 of 23 73% 18 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brandon Royval 17 of 26 65% 5 of 10 6 of 8 6 of 8 17 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Manel Kape 17 of 23 73% 6 of 10 5 of 6 6 of 7 15 of 21 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brandon Royval 17 of 26 65% 5 of 10 6 of 8 6 of 8 17 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Manel Kape 17 of 23 73% 6 of 10 5 of 6 6 of 7 15 of 21 0 of 0 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brandon Royval vs. Manel Kape
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kape (-300); Royval (+240)

Round 1
This main event is a flyweight tilt many have circled on the calendar the day it was announced. Always in a wild scrap, Royval (17-8, 7-4 UFC) has reached all but the pinnacle of his division as bounces around the top five. After some delays and scrubbed pairings, he finally gets to take on the brick-fisted Kape (21-7, 6-3 UFC). The talk is over, the prep is finished, and it’s time for some action. Referee Herb Dean ushers the two to the center of the Octagon to issue final instructions and elicit a glove touch, which is heard and answered by the athletes. It’s on with the show, this being the final UFC bout on ESPN (unless they sign back with ESPN in 2033).
Kape marches Royval down immediately lobbing a hard calf kick at him to greet him. Royval answers him back. Violent pleasantries exchanged, the two get to it for real. Royval lands a side kick to the ribs, and Kape keeps targeting the lead leg. Royval answers in kind, and swipes out with a right hand on the way back. Kape chips at the front wheel once more with his low kick, and Royval makes sure to pay him back immediately. Royval lets rip a body kick that lands with a loud slap, and he kicks with the other leg which makes a thumping sound instead. Royval punches his way into a low kick combination, and he tags Kape upstairs to interrupt a combo. Another hefty body kick from “Raw Dawg” lands flush, who then targets the calf. Kape swings himself off-balance with a big kick, gathering himself in time to dodge a kick flying at his face.
Royval tosses up a high kick, and Kape rushes him. Something appears to bother Kape, who has to suddenly back off and put his hand on the fence. Oddly enough, the same thing happens to Royval, who looks to have jammed his toes on a kick. Kape walks him down and blasts him in the face with a ferocious right hand that puts him down for the count. “Starboy” unleashes a final barrage of fists while Royval tries to sit up and recover, knocking the Factory X fighter clean out and then switching him back online again. Dean sees when Royval goes limp a second time, and he intervenes. Royval is trying to stand at the time, but he is on wobbled legs and thinks to protest but decides against it. Cooler heads bring him over to his corner so that he can sit down and talk to his team now that the fight is over, and Kape hurries over to talk to someone seated outside of the cage. Ending the ESPN era with one destructive flurry, Kape ties the UFC flyweight record for the most knockouts in divisional history, tying Joe Benavidez with five.
The triumphant Kape challenges new flyweight king Joshua Van for his belt, claiming that he will, and we can’t make this up, “take his diapers.” Sometimes these things happen in MMA. With this 12-fight show in the books, the ESPN era of the UFC is now complete. With the winter break upcoming, there will be a whopping six weeks until the next UFC card on Jan. 24, a gap with no events not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic shut the sport down for a few months in 2020. There will be a few more major fight cards in 2025, with PFL Africa next week and Rizin’s NYE spectacular coming up soon. We will be there for them, and we hope you are too.

The Official Result
Manel Kape def. Brandon Royval R1 3:18 via KO (Punches)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Cody picks Royval as a plus money underdog, citing his infinite cardio, pressure, and volume. He believes Royval's improved striking and grappling will allow him to outwork Kape over five rounds, especially in deeper waters. He notes Kape's power but thinks Royval's chin can hold up and that Royval will win a close decision by outlanding him in significant strikes.

"I am going to chase that plus money on Brandon Royval. It's a five-round fight. And again, as far as I'm concerned, Brandon Royval is built for these 25-minute long fights."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Lucrative James picks Manel Kape confidently, arguing that Brandon Royval's aggressive, pressure-heavy style plays into Kape's hands. He notes Kape's superior boxing, timing, and power, and believes Kape will hurt Royval multiple times, though a knockout is uncertain given Royval's durability. He projects Kape as a -250 favorite.

"I'm going to pick Manel Cape in this fight. I'm going to pick Minnel Cape fairly confidently in this fight."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Paul agrees with Cody, also taking Royval at plus 250. He highlights the Felipe dos Santos fight as evidence that Kape can be pushed in a striking battle, and doubts Kape can maintain high volume for 25 minutes. He sees Royval's durability and output as key factors.

"It's Brandon Royval plus 250 for me as well."
WIN vs Asu Almabayev
KO R3 2:16 · UFC Fight Night 253 · Mar 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Manel Kape 0 61 of 115 53% 62 of 119 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:29
Asu Almabayev 0 40 of 80 50% 40 of 81 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Manel Kape 0 19 of 40 47% 20 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Asu Almabayev 0 14 of 28 50% 14 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Manel Kape 0 14 of 27 51% 14 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Asu Almabayev 0 18 of 40 45% 18 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Manel Kape 0 28 of 48 58% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Asu Almabayev 0 8 of 12 66% 8 of 13 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Manel Kape 61 of 115 53% 47 of 95 11 of 17 3 of 3 46 of 94 9 of 15 6 of 6
Asu Almabayev 40 of 80 50% 19 of 55 13 of 17 8 of 8 38 of 77 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Manel Kape 19 of 40 47% 15 of 33 3 of 6 1 of 1 19 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Asu Almabayev 14 of 28 50% 7 of 20 6 of 7 1 of 1 14 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Manel Kape 14 of 27 51% 10 of 23 2 of 2 2 of 2 14 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Asu Almabayev 18 of 40 45% 7 of 27 6 of 8 5 of 5 17 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Manel Kape 28 of 48 58% 22 of 39 6 of 9 0 of 0 13 of 27 9 of 15 6 of 6
Asu Almabayev 8 of 12 66% 5 of 8 1 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kape (-205), Almabayev (+170)

Round 1
Rather than throwing hands with Brandon Royval, Kape (20-7, 5-3 UFC) gets a new foe on relatively short notice. Having prevailed in his last 17 outings including four in the UFC, Kazakhstan’s own Almabayev (21-2, 4-0 UFC) is ready to become a title contender. The wild flyweight stylistic clash will be overseen by referee Mike Beltran, who brings the two to the center of the cage to issue final instructions and bump fists. It’s on with the show. In alternate stances, they hand-fight early without engaging. Both men have their lead hands pop into each other until Almabayev springs into action with a powerful, audible body kick. Kape circles away and kicks the lead leg back. A lull in fight leads to a funny call from the audience, and Kape suddenly explodes forward with two left hands. Almabayev bounces off the wall and responds with an overhand right that comes up short, and Kape again charges him with a left. Almabayev ducks down and fires off a right hook and follows with a body kick, and Kape takes some time before again bursting straight ahead. Two quick blitzes from “Starboy” make Almabayev shrug his shoulders before kicking the body, and Kape brushes his arm to signals the kick did not land. Kape crashes in with a left, getting close enough to push himself past a spin kick from the Kazakhstan native. Kape reaches his opponent with two punches and wipes at his eye, with Almabayev possibly scraping him in the left eye when pushing off to escape. Kape cracks Almabayev again with his explosive, leaping punch, and Almabayev rebounds and stumbles off the fencing before gathering himself. Kape times a left and opens up with a right, hurting the streaking Almabayev and opening a cut around his left eye. Almabayev has a head kick blocked, and Kape attacks with a fury, snapping Almabayev’s head back and bouncing him off the fencing once more. Almabayev jabs, and he shoots for a single as Kape races at him. Kape shuts it down without concern, walks through a spinning elbow and puts six punches in rapid succession on Almabayev’s head and body. Kape’s swinging fists lead to Almabayev trying to grab hold of him, and Kape shoves him back and walks off. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Kape

Round 2
Almabayev’s eye has taken some serious damage from Kape’s knuckles, with blood appearing in the eyeball itself and not just leaking down his nose. Almabayev starts off the rounds in hopes of not letting Kape reach him by measuring out front kicks. A failed level change from Almabayev allows Kape to catch him with a punch, and Kape allows him to kick him so he can find his way in. As Kape backs off, he ducks to anticipatorily evade a spinning back kick. Kape measures more carefully than before, not lunging nearly as often, perhaps due to the threat of the takedown. Almabayev scores a left hand, and Kape brushes his shoulder off. When Kape threatens to come in, Almabayev fires off a head kick, and he leaps at Kape with a knee. Kape stands back, marches in to swing and gets clipped with a left hook. “Starboy” shrugs it off entirely and keeps advancing, backing off only when a spin kick flies by his face. Almabayev loads up on a power leg kick, turning his hips into the strike, and Kape quickly changes stances. Almabayev scores a left hand and fires off a head kick, and Kape barely blocks the kick in time. Almabayev splits the guard with an effective front kick, and Kape is stuck staring at him, feinting but not engaging with much more than single strikes. One such right hand scores, and Kape settles himself down and then suddenly leaps forward with a flying knee. When landing, he dings Almabayev with a right hand, and he lets Almabayev rebound off the wall and wags his finger at him. Almabayev rips a left hand to the body and narrowly misses a right over the top, and Kape walks him down and slips, recovering his footing to wipe his foot off. Kape then spins with a wheel kick, and he runs at Almabayev with fists flying. Almabayev signals to Beltran that he was poked in the eye, and Kape declares that it was a punch. After just a couple seconds, the replay official states it was a punch, and he restarts the fight. Kape charges again with leaping punches, catching Almabayev at the end of a right before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Kape

Round 3
The flyweights are so amped to get back to it, Beltran has to back them off before clocking them in. Kape takes the center of the cage and has his guard up to defend a body kick, but a low kick from Almabayev lands cleanly and trips Kape up. Kape strides forward, hurling punches at the midsection of his opponent, and Almabayev circles away to take the sting out of them. Kape probes his way in and has his front leg kicked hard, and he shrugs it off to punch Almabayey square in the jaw. Almabayev strikes back just as cleanly, and Kape maintains the pressure to make Almabayev have to sprint away. Almabayev shoots for a takedown, and when it fails, he has to back off. Kape surges forward throwing hands, and Almabayev claims he was poked again in the eye and tries to call time out. Beltran is having none of it—even though it was actually a swipe on his eyeball—and Almabayev desperately shoots. Kape shuts it down and lays into Almabayev with concussive punches.
As Kape lays it on with knees and punches, Almabayev turns tail and runs away, and Kape sprints after him hitting him whenever he can reach him. Beltran follows them closely as the 125ers speed around the Octagon, and after he catches up to a retreating Almabayev, he decides to wave the fight off.
At that moment, Almabayev was shooting for a double, but Beltran may have interpreted the running from one end of the cage to the other as physically surrendering and intervened. There will be much to discuss regarding Beltran and how this fight played out, including two uncalled eye scrapes—but Beltran is the sole arbiter of the bout, and fighters cannot call time-out. There may also be some debate on the specific nature of the stoppage, as Beltran stepped in several seconds after Kape landed any strikes, and therefore would be classified differently than a standard finish like via punches or some specific blow. No matter the exact method, it goes down as a technical knockout for “Starboy,” who demands two things: a title shot, and for his daughter to be allowed in the cage and into his arms. The promotion ushers her in, and she asks if Kape won. He proudly says he did, and that he is the best. It is very likely that Kape will have an opportunity to prove he is indeed the best flyweight in the world in his next encounter, in a rematch with champion Alexandre Pantoja, who bested him in 2021. If that fight happens next, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Manel Kape def. Asu Almabayev R3 2:16 via TKO (Retirement)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Angelo picks Manel Kape because of his explosive striking and southpaw pressure, noting that Almabayev's takedown success (1/6 in his last fight) is a major concern. He believes Almabayev needs to threaten takedowns to neutralize Kape's striking, but doubts he can do so effectively. Angelo also mentions a potential live bet opportunity if Almabayev fails to secure early takedowns.

Live bet opportunity if Almabayev fails to secure early takedowns
"cop is going to have to be the pick here but it is possible that a su could win this fight the same boring ass way Manel lost to MV threaten the takedowns paralyze the Striking"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Big Brady picks Manel Kape, citing his improved takedown defense and striking advantage. He notes Asu Almabayev is stepping up in competition and likely cannot hold Kape down. He expects Kape to stuff takedowns and win by decision, but warns that Kape sometimes fights passively.

Kape by decision
"I got to go cop here I think cop is going to be able to stuff the takedowns... I'm going to pick cop to win this fight by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Connor picks Kape, emphasizing that Kape is a pressure counter-puncher who will make Almabayev work under pressure, unlike Nicolau who gave Almabayev free distance. He notes that Almabayev's approach against Nicolau was rudimentary and that Kape's speed and power will be a problem. Connor also mentions that Kape is much more talented than Nicolau and that Almabayev's level of competition hasn't been high.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I'm gonna pick top two. But yeah it could be one of those fights where we're literally just watching two people circle each other for two rounds until one of them hits the other one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Manel Kape

The host expects Kape to use his defensive grappling to shut down Almabayev's game. Once Almabayev decides to strike, that will be the beginning of the end, as Kape should land more effective strikes and possibly find a knockout, but ultimately win on the scorecards over 25 minutes.

"cap to utilizes defensive grappling to shut down that game of alv and once alv decides to strike with him that will be the beginning of the end as cap should be able to land more effective strikes might be …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Manel Kape

The Guru picks Manel Kape over Asu Almabayev. He believes Kape is the truth and will become champion. He praises Kape's recent performance against Bruno Silva and his takedown defense. He notes Kape's power advantage and finishing potential, predicting a TKO in the second or third round.

"I'm going with Manel cap... I'm actually going to go with Manel capap getting himself a TKO in the second or third round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Zane picks Kape because he is faster, more powerful, and more dynamic than Almabayev. He notes that Almabayev struggled against a similar counter-puncher in Nicolau, and Kape is a pressure counter-puncher who will maintain distance aggressively, forcing Almabayev to work under pressure. Zane acknowledges the risk of a boring decision loss but believes Kape's speed and power will find openings over five rounds.

Kape opened at -264, now -205; Almabayev opened +197, now +190. Zane says he wouldn't like to see it get any wider, implying the line is fair.
"But I'm still gonna pick mental cop. I think yeah rounds five rounds is a lot of time for cop to simply find a few openings."
WIN vs Bruno Silva
TKO (body kick and punches) R3 1:57 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley · Dec 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Manel Kape 1 111 of 168 66% 111 of 168 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Bruno Silva 0 57 of 112 50% 60 of 115 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Manel Kape 0 32 of 48 66% 32 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bruno Silva 0 19 of 34 55% 21 of 36 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Manel Kape 0 39 of 66 59% 39 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bruno Silva 0 27 of 43 62% 28 of 44 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Manel Kape 1 40 of 54 74% 40 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Bruno Silva 0 11 of 35 31% 11 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Manel Kape 111 of 168 66% 71 of 127 18 of 19 22 of 22 109 of 165 2 of 2 0 of 1
Bruno Silva 57 of 112 50% 27 of 74 21 of 29 9 of 9 55 of 110 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Manel Kape 32 of 48 66% 21 of 37 2 of 2 9 of 9 31 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bruno Silva 19 of 34 55% 7 of 18 10 of 14 2 of 2 18 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Manel Kape 39 of 66 59% 25 of 52 5 of 5 9 of 9 38 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bruno Silva 27 of 43 62% 13 of 27 7 of 9 7 of 7 26 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Manel Kape 40 of 54 74% 25 of 38 11 of 12 4 of 4 40 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 1
Bruno Silva 11 of 35 31% 7 of 29 4 of 6 0 of 0 11 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Manel Kape vs. Bruno Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kape (-345), Silva (+275)

Round 1
Keith Peterson will referee the final flyweight fight on the UFC calendar. Kape's striking looks extremely quick. Silva throws out some kicks but eats a right hand for leaving it out. Nice leg kick by Kape, who then follows it up with punches. A big overhand right for Silva lands. A low blow hits Kape. The fight is restarted after a brief break. Silva keeps getting caught by Kape after he throws out leg kicks. Kape is the faster fighter. Kape gets kicked in the groin again. No point is taken. Kape finishes off the round in control and misses a spinning back fist.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kape

Round 2
Silva charges forward, trying to get a takedown attempt, but it's unsuccessful. Kape catches Silva with a hook. Silva gets hurt with a right hook. Kape taunts him and then lands a huge right hand as well. Silva's power is just not respected by Kape. Yet another low blow as Kape goes down. Peterson finally takes a point from Silva. Kape looks reenergized. After hitting Silva with a right hook, Kape mocks him and dances as he avoids another punch. Incredible theater here and quite embarrassing for Silva, who is getting clowned up despite landing several illegal strikes. A solid right hand lands for Silva. Kape finishes the round with a solid body kick.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Kape
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Kape
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 Kape

Round 3
Silva comes out recklessly swinging as he knows he needs a finish. A right hand cracks Kape, but he doesn't show any signs of being hurt. Kape is continuing to piece up Silva, landing a combination of punches to the body. Silva walks backward into the fence while Kape lands hooks to the body. Silva charges forward and lands a left hook.
Kape lands a brutal body kick, and Silva turtles up. Kape continues with a flurry of punches, and Silva falls to the floor.
Peterson waves it off as Silva has no fight left in him.

The Official Result
Manel Kape def. Bruno Silva via TKO (Punches); R3, 1:57.
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Angelo picks Kape as the cleaner, more technical striker with better footwork. He notes Kape's speed, explosiveness, and ability to bounce in and out of range, while Silva is a tough bruiser who is good everywhere but not technical. He expects Kape to win by decision due to Silva's toughness, and sees value in Kape's odds.

Likely decision win; sees value in odds.
"Bruno Silva is good but Manel cop is better it's literally that simple... cop wins this fight likely a decision because of the toughness on the other side and I think there's still some value in his odds."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Big Brady picks Manel Kape to win by second-round knockout, but is hesitant due to Kape's inconsistency. He notes Kape has looked like a star in some fights but has also had terrible performances where he did nothing. He thinks Kape has a major skill advantage and should finish Silva, but is not sure he will show up.

"I'll go Manel cop I'll take him to win this fight by second round knockout I think he has a major skill Advantage here but the problem with cop is I don't think he always um utilizes all his skills"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Cody picks Bruno Silva as a live underdog, citing Manel Kape's history of tentative performances and poor output. He notes Silva's power, durability, and recent knockout wins, and believes Silva's willingness to push the pace will expose Kape's tendency to sit back. Cody also mentions Silva's training at Fight Ready with high-level partners.

"I actually got Bruno Silva yeah partly because this is a crazy number and one it's a flya away fight but that aside it's like Bruno Silva is one of these guys that's going to give you full effort."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Connor picks Kape, acknowledging Silva's toughness and well-roundedness but noting that Kape's athleticism and speed are superior. He thinks Silva's best chance is to pressure, but that plays into Kape's counterpunching. Connor expects a slow fight where Kape eventually lands a big shot.

Kape opened at -254, now -357; Silva opened at +219, now +293
"I would, if I had to guess, I think we'd see a bit of both. Slow burn. Silva gets touched a little more, gets frustrated, comes out really hot, trying to get some momentum back and gets nuked."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Daniel Vreeland picks Manel Kape to win by knockout, citing Kape's fast hands and explosiveness. He notes that Bruno Silva is tough and will stand and trade, which plays into Kape's strengths. Vreeland believes Kape can hurt Silva more than Cody Durman did, and that a finish is likely. He mentions Kape's past issues with overconfidence but thinks he will perform well here.

by KO
"I'm gonna go manell cap to come out here knock out Bruno Bulldog Silva and earn a title shot"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Lucrative James picks Manel Kape to win, citing Kape's accuracy, athleticism, and durability. He acknowledges Bruno Silva's power and grappling upside, but believes Kape's sharpshooting and ability to land heavy blows will prevail. He notes Silva's recent poor performance against Cody Durden and Kape's overall skill advantage, though he admits Silva has value as an underdog.

"I think Manel cape's going to win I just think he's too much of a sharp shooter I think he's too accurate I think he's too athletic I think he hits too hard."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Kape's explosiveness, power, and speed will be too much for Bruno Silva. He will land the more damaging strikes, which could lead to a finish, but the prediction is for Kape to win on the scorecards.

wins by decision
"I believe the explosiveness power and speed of cop will end up being too much for Bruno here I look for a cap to land the more damaging and significant strikes which could lead to a finish But ultimately my …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Paul leans towards Bruno Silva, agreeing with Cody that the price is too high on Kape. He notes Kape's inconsistency and Silva's power and durability. Paul sees this as a dogger pass situation and is willing to take the plus money on Silva.

"I think it's another dogger pass type of situation I just don't really know how invested I want to be in Bruno Silva this week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Manel Kape

The MMA Guru picks Manel Kape, acknowledging Bruno Silva's underrated skills and finishing ability but believing Kape's takedown defense and durability are underrated. He notes that Kape has never been finished and has gone the distance with champions like Pantoja. He predicts Kape will win by TKO or decision, possibly with a flying knee. He dismisses Silva's wins as against lower-level competition.

flying knee TKO possibility
"I'm going to go with Manel cap regardless and I'm going to say he gets this one done by TKO maybe a decision where he hurts Bruno Silva on a few occasions though instead"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Zane picks Kape despite his low-output style, because Kape's speed and explosiveness are too much for Silva. He notes that Silva is a counterpuncher who may struggle to time Kape's sporadic attacks, and that if Silva pressures, he risks getting countered. Zane thinks Silva will eventually get frustrated and get 'nuked'.

Kape opened at -254, now -357; Silva opened at +219, now +293
"I think it might be close, but it just hard, very hard to see burn herself actually winning. Isn't it?"
LOSS vs Muhammad Mokaev
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muhammad Mokaev 0 30 of 82 36% 47 of 102 3 of 8 37% 0 0 2:11
Manel Kape 0 20 of 48 41% 34 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muhammad Mokaev 0 10 of 29 34% 10 of 29 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Manel Kape 0 7 of 16 43% 7 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Muhammad Mokaev 0 10 of 32 31% 10 of 32 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:12
Manel Kape 0 10 of 19 52% 11 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Muhammad Mokaev 0 10 of 21 47% 27 of 41 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:59
Manel Kape 0 3 of 13 23% 16 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muhammad Mokaev 30 of 82 36% 11 of 39 13 of 22 6 of 21 27 of 78 2 of 2 1 of 2
Manel Kape 20 of 48 41% 16 of 39 4 of 7 0 of 2 20 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muhammad Mokaev 10 of 29 34% 2 of 10 5 of 8 3 of 11 10 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Manel Kape 7 of 16 43% 6 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 1 7 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Muhammad Mokaev 10 of 32 31% 2 of 12 6 of 12 2 of 8 9 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
Manel Kape 10 of 19 52% 7 of 13 3 of 5 0 of 1 10 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Muhammad Mokaev 10 of 21 47% 7 of 17 2 of 2 1 of 2 8 of 18 1 of 1 1 of 2
Manel Kape 3 of 13 23% 3 of 12 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Manel Kape vs. Muhammad Mokaev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mokaev (-130), Kape (+110)

Round 1
Sparks are soon to fly as the prelims—on ESPNews for the time being—will treat fans to a grudge match. Initially booked against one another a few months ago, Kape (19-6, 4-2 UFC) failed to make weight and the flyweight scrap against Mokaev (12-0, 1 NC; 6-0 UFC) fell through. Bad blood brewed as the two jawed at one another constantly and may have even come to blows at least once before settling it in the cage. They get to handle their business once and for all, and referee Mike Beltran and added security in the cage make sure that things do not get out of hand. Unsurprisingly, the flyweights have no interest in touching gloves as the battle begins. Mokaev sprints at his opponent, and Kape is ready to wing a right hand and stumbles after throwing it so hard. Mokaev nods at him and lets loose with a high kick that skims off the shoulder, and he tosses out a low kick that partially lands. Kape parries a front kick as the crowd releases “ole ole ole” chants, and the pace is surprisingly calm given the intensity of the pre-fight antics. Kape walks his man down but does not commit to any strikes of note, and Mokaev gets away with slapping the lead leg with a kick. The audience is quick to grow restless after the fever pitch of anticipation leading up to it, as the two flyweights do practically nothing. Mokaev prods with kicks while Kape just stands and measures him. When Kape lands a strike, he sends Mokaev staggering back, and he does not follow him and stays calm. Mokaev splits the guard with a front kick off the abdomen, and Mokaev is warned for outstretched fingers as he keeps his hand pointed out. Mokaev misses on two low kicks, and the fans hammer the fighters with boos while Beltran calls for action. Kape lunges with a straight left hand, and he slips when stepping back. Mokaev lands a push kick to the groin, and Kape waves him off and lets Mokaev land another body kick. Mokaev keeps slapping with low kicks, and he spins with a sudden wheel kick that grazes off Kape’s head. Kape darts forward with fists outstretched, and Mokaev defends against them. Kape crowds him again and gets off a left to the body, and he resets and eats a low kick. Kape throws one back, and he gets jabbed and kicked in response. Mokaev kicks up high, and Kape walks through a left hook and another groin kick before leaping at Kape with a knee. Mokaev drops down and goes for a takedown, and Kape stops it and cracks him with a few punches. Kape opens up with a left hand that hurts Mokaev, who shoots for a takedown that is easily thwarted. The disappointing round ends with Kape bouncing back.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev

Round 2
Mokaev does not take a seat between rounds, staring his opponent down the whole time. The second round begins and the two meet in the middle, and they pump-fake with hips but do not throw anything. Kape hops around switching stances, and he blocks a jump knee. Mokaev pushes out a front kick to the sternum, and Kape is warned for outstretched fingers. Mokaev tags him with a right hand, and he blocks a kick that breaks his toe. Kape goes to adjust his busted toe, and Mokaev runs at him attempting a knee but does not get to him. Kape continues to shake out his right foot, and he is ginger on it. Kape stops a takedown in the open cage, but a scramble results in Mokaev on top. Mokaev yanks on Kape’s shorts several times, nearly pulling them off, and Beltran calls time and angrily shouts at Mokaev for the egregious foul. Beltran takes away the position—a point should be taken but is not for some reason—and tells Mokaev it is his final warning. Kape appears better, and Mokaev reaches out and pokes him in the eye. Kape turns around, and Beltran notes the foul but does not call time, instead telling Kape to fight on. Kape suddenly turns around and stops a takedown, and he is irritated but gathers his thoughts and manages to get off a short left hand. Mokaev gets off a body kick, and Kape adjusts his shorts a few times. Kape smiles, and he times a counter left hand when Mokaev overextends. Kape walks through a punch and starts talking the Dagestani fighter down, landing two punches and eating a knee on the way as well. Mokaev gets enough space to push out a few kicks, and Kape throws a low kick and dips his way in but elects not to strike. Kape jumps at his man with two hooks, and he lands at the end of a left hand. Kape powers off another left hand, and Mokaev responds with a body kick. The horn sounds, and scorecards could be all over the map already.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev

Round 3
Before the last round opens, Beltran brings in the doctor to examine Kape’s toe, and he is cleared to continue although Beltran says he will keep an eye on it. They begin the final frame, and Kape stands in the center of the Octagon pawing out jabs. Mokaev slaps him in the face with a high kick, who races at him and misses on punches. Mokaev threatens back with a single, and Kape stonewalls him and leaps forward with a left hook that comes up short. Kape lets go with three punches, but only one partially connects. Mokaev jabs to intercept the advancing Kape, and he has a head kick disrupt him as well. Mokaev jumps after a takedown and is stopped in his tracks, and he gets to his feet and hops away from the lunging Angolan. Kape plants a one-two on the jaw, and he is met with a quick head kick that slaps him upside the head. Mokaev reaches with a low kick to the rear leg, and he retreats around the outer edge of the cage to not let Kape land on him. Mokaev beats his man to the punch, but he eats a left hand as his head is leaning against the wall. Mokaev goes after a single, and Kape defends with a guillotine choke as soon as he hits his back. Mokaev signals that he is not concerned, and he tries to yank his head out of danger and eventually succeeds. Kape goes wild from his back, spamming hacking elbows that stun Mokaev. Kape continues elbowing his man on the top of the head, and Mokaev gets busy with a few punches to the body. Kape pushes off the hips and rolls for a kneebar, and he lets it go to stand back up and push Mokaev away with 40 seconds left. Mokaev points to the floor to signal that they brawl, and Kape does not bite and fall victim to a takedown. Kape shoots for a low single, and Mokaev stops it and punches him in the face. Kape dings him back, and he gets dragged to his seat as he complains about an eye poke. Mokaev holds him down, and the audience boos them heartily. The flyweights immediately bury the hatchet, hugging it out as security watches closely. It’s anyone’s guess how this fight will be scored, but neither man put forth an effort worthy of a title fight in their next outing.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape (29-28 Kape)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev (30-27 Mokaev)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev (30-27 Mokaev)

The Official Result
Muhammad Mokaev def. Manel Kape via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Muhammad Mokaev

Angelo picks Muhammad Mokaev despite his poor striking performance in his last fight, attributing it to a staph infection. He believes Mokaev's relentless wrestling will be the difference, as Manel Kape may be hesitant to let his hands go due to takedown fear. Angelo notes that Kape is a much better striker but expects Mokaev's pace and wrestling to win out.

"I still think Muhammad Mia is going to win this fight he is the pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Muhammad Mokaev

Cody picks Muhammad Mokaev, citing his improving wrestling and grappling. He notes that Mokaev has been getting better at controlling opponents on the ground and that Manel Kape has shown poor takedown defense and cardio. Cody believes Mokaev's constant takedown threats will neutralize Kape's striking and lead to a decision win.

Muhammad Mokaev by decision
"I'll take Makai of Makai of by decision but uh it's a flyweight fight Paul like you know expect the unexpected."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Daniel believes Manel Kape is the more well-rounded fighter with superior striking and experience. He thinks Mokaev's takedowns won't be enough to hold Kape down, and Kape will hurt Mokaev on the feet, potentially finishing him. He predicts a knockout.

wins by KO
"I'm gonna go manell cap to hand Muhammad makv his first ever UFC defeat"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Jeff picks Manel Kape as his dog of the week. He admits he may have faded Mokaev too much in the past, but believes Kape is one of the best flyweights. He thinks what Mokaev showed against Alex Perez is not enough to beat Kape.

"I'm gonna go manil k uh I I've maybe been fading Mohamad MV more than I ought to in the past but like I just don't think what we saw out of him in that Alex Perez fight is enough …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Paul leans towards Manel Kape as a dog, citing the value at plus 130. He believes if the fight stays on the feet, Kape has a clear advantage. However, he acknowledges that Mokaev's wrestling is a major threat and that Kape has been taken down before. Paul calls it a 'dogger pass' situation but is tempted by the line.

"I want to bet Manel cop and that line keeps kind of growing and they're just like begging me to bet him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Manel Kape

The MMA Guru picks Manel Kape by TKO in the second round. He believes Kape is levels above Mokaev on the feet and has better takedown defense, having trained with Dagestani wrestlers. The Guru notes that Mokaev has struggled on the feet against Alex Perez and often needs to clutch wins in the third round. He expects Kape to stuff takedowns and land damaging strikes, possibly cutting Mokaev and finishing him in round two. He also mentions Kape's potential for fouling as a factor in his favor.

TKO in round 2
"I'm going to go with Manel cap I think he's way better on the feet and after watching makv on the feet against Perez he has no idea what he's doing on the feet at times"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Sep 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Manel Kape 1 112 of 182 61% 116 of 186 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:45
Felipe dos Santos 0 99 of 304 32% 101 of 310 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Manel Kape 1 36 of 55 65% 38 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
Felipe dos Santos 0 32 of 96 33% 32 of 96 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:08
2 Manel Kape 0 37 of 61 60% 37 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Felipe dos Santos 0 35 of 102 34% 35 of 103 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Manel Kape 0 39 of 66 59% 41 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:17
Felipe dos Santos 0 32 of 106 30% 34 of 111 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Manel Kape 112 of 182 61% 77 of 137 24 of 30 11 of 15 92 of 149 6 of 9 14 of 24
Felipe dos Santos 99 of 304 32% 53 of 215 28 of 60 18 of 29 94 of 292 4 of 8 1 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Manel Kape 36 of 55 65% 18 of 35 13 of 15 5 of 5 28 of 43 2 of 2 6 of 10
Felipe dos Santos 32 of 96 33% 13 of 65 13 of 20 6 of 11 31 of 92 1 of 4 0 of 0
2 Manel Kape 37 of 61 60% 26 of 46 7 of 8 4 of 7 32 of 53 3 of 6 2 of 2
Felipe dos Santos 35 of 102 34% 19 of 69 9 of 22 7 of 11 34 of 100 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Manel Kape 39 of 66 59% 33 of 56 4 of 7 2 of 3 32 of 53 1 of 1 6 of 12
Felipe dos Santos 32 of 106 30% 21 of 81 6 of 18 5 of 7 29 of 100 2 of 2 1 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Felipe dos Santos vs. Manel Kape
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kape (-410), dos Santos (+320)

Round 1
The UFC lost a terrific flyweight matchup of Kape (18-6, 3-2 UFC) vs. Kai Kara-France due to the latter’s concussion issue, and it tried to make the most of a bad situation by shuttling in a fighter who was going to make his mark on the Contender Series a few weeks ago. Instead of an audition, dos Santos (7-0, 1 NC; 0-0 UFC) is thrust right into a pay-per-view main card, with the lights blindingly shining. A win for the Brazilian would be one for the ages as he would immediately jump into the rankings, but the hard-charging Kape will not go easy on him. Referee Greg Kleynjans takes charge of the cage for this “featured fight of the night,” and Kape is happy to still be fighting tonight so he offers a glove touch that is accepted. The two fighters clash together with immediate kicks, and Kape throws back with higher volume. The Brazilian wings a left hand over the top, and Kape gets stung but fires back with a vengeance. Kape connects with a low kick, and he gets knocked back with a jab. “Starboy” launches a rocket of a right hand that separates dos Santos from his balance, and Kape jumps on top of him and starts dropping strikes down until dos Santos throws his legs up for a desperation submission. Kape backs off to let him up, and he drives his fists into dos Santos’ dome a few more times to rock the newcomer once again. Dos Santos swings wild, and Kape is more composed and snipes him with a left hand. Kape paws out his jab and clips dos Santos on the way in with a short left, and when he kicks, dos Santos catches it. Kape tumbles to the mat, and as they scramble, Kape moves on top of him and busts him in the chops with several heavy punches. Kape gets pushed off and the two get back to striking, and dos Santos surprises the big favorite with a right hand and a knee up the middle. Kape is surprised but ready to keep attacking, and he walks into a front kick. Dos Santos is met with a leg kick, and he powers forward throwing hard but missing by a small margin. The Brazilian follows a jab with a head kick, and the two clinch up and start trading knees. Kape breaks with a big left hand, and dos Santos rolls with it and walks forward to swing with a haymaker. Kape times a spinning back elbow right on the dome, and the younger dos Santos eats it like a sandwich and keeps powering forward. Kape has a foot grabbed when kicking, and dos Santos tries to throw him down but Kape grabs the fence to stay upright. Kape muscles his man down to the mat, only to back off and keep trading. The two men get off power punches, and Kape scores a body kick and an elbow. Kape walks him down and smashes him in the face with a right hand, and dos Santos gives him one right back. A furious trading of fists ends the exciting round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Kape

Round 2
The flyweights do not race out of their corners this round, and instead dos Santos slowly wades forward reaching out with kicks. Kape slides out of the way of all of them, including a head kick that grazes his hair, and he returns fire with a low kick. When dos Santos commits to one in response, Kape drills him with a left hook. Dos Santos spams front kicks until charging forward with a right hook, and Kape takes the punches and counters, only to have his head snapped back with a right. Dos Santos kicks high as it bounces off the guard, and he spins with something but does not let it go. Instead, he settles down to fire off a right hand, and Kape trips him to the mat with a stern leg kick. Dos Santos climbs back up and connects with two low kicks, and he rushes forward and gets popped by a shovel uppercut of a right hand. Kape puts everything behind a right hand, and dos Santos slips it and counters, and Kape keeps his head movement active as well to make for an exciting near-miss exchange. Kape sits down on a right hand as dos Santos crashes the pocket, and the newcomer’s chin is impressive. Dos Santos gets off a jumping front kick, and both men smack one another in the face with right hooks. The two trade jabs, and Kape goes to the body and slips the long left that aims past his head. Kape counters a jab with three punches, and he staggers dos Santos with a left hook. The Brazilian wears it well once more, and he chains two punches together on the inside to drive dos Santos back. Kape digs his shin into dos Santos’ thigh, and he cracks dos Santos with a few punches. From up close, dos Santos spins with a kick, and it brushes into the cup but it is not called. Kape motions to his groin, and when it goes ignored, Kape surges into action and starts ripping into dos Santos with a flurry of ferocious fists. Dos Santos survives the assault and races forward, and Kape times an elbow right on the way in. Kape pierces the guard with a right hand, and he puts his hands behind his back. Dos Santos motions to him to hit him, and the two showboat and taunt at one another until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Kape

Round 3
Kape allows dos Santos to come at him so he can lean back and bat dos Santos in the jaw with a clubbing right hand. Dos Santos meanders forward, letting Kape kick him so he can try to front kick his way in. Kape does not allow him to close the distance, and instead tags the unbeaten fighter with a right hand. Dos Santos, not to be outdone, runs at him and reaches Kape with two punches. When Kape knocks him back, dos Santos replies, but Kape works the body as well. Dos Santos kicks the chest and swings hard, and he clips Kape and gets popped in return. The Brazilian lands a kick and gets tripped up, and when he gets back up, he connects with several punches that rock and cut Kape on the corner of his left eye. Despite the damage, Kape is excited when he gets blasted, and he chambers and fires a right hand that stuns dos Santos and knocks him down to a knee. Dos Santos races forward with a jump knee, and he pressures forward giving Kape everything he can handle with high volume and decent power. Kape moves enough to take the sting out of the shots, and puts himself in position for an effective counter. Kape times a huge right hand that snaps dos Santos’ chin to the side, but dos Santos is not shaken and he continues moving forward. Kape lets go with a flurry of hands, and dos Santos blinks it out and has entered “Terminator” mode. Despite taking shots, dos Santos will not back down, and even throws a spinning kick. Kape is composed and calm enough to time his counters, and he lets dos Santos charge at him and busts him in the chops. As dos Santos gets a bit too wild, Kape times a takedown and takes dos Santos off his feet. When on top, Kape rains down a final barrage of punches to conclude the fantastic scrap. Both men climb on top of the cage to motion to the crowd, and despite the all-out battle that Kape delivered, the crowd boos him heartily. What a fight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape (30-27 Kape)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Kape (30-27 Kape)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Kape (30-27 Kape)

The Official Result
Manel Kape def. Felipe dos Santos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Angelo picks Manel Kape, saying it should be Kape all day. He notes that Kape can control range and pace with more technical striking. Felipe is dangerous but hittable and reckless. Kape should be safe to parlay. Angelo sees a clear path for Felipe but doesn't think he can walk through Kape's shots.

Safe to parlay
"This should be Manel cop all day cops should be able to control the range the pace and have the far more technical striking"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Big Brady confidently picks Manel Kape, citing his high-level competition and recent finishes. He notes dos Santos is a big step down and can be taken down. He thinks Kape will knock him out in the first round.

"I see monel cop knocking out Felipe dos Santos in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Cody picks Kape confidently, citing his explosive power, superior striking, and experience against top competition. He notes that dos Santos is a young, green replacement on short notice with limited tape, and that Kape should win either by early finish or smart game plan. Cody acknowledges flyweight volatility but believes Kape is the clear pick.

"this is cops fight to lose man no I think he's got a milk gun pretty much everywhere"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Daniel Levi is very confident in Manel Kape, having placed a bet on him at minus 340. He believes Kape should be a much heavier favorite, lining him at 83-88% to win. Levi notes that dos Santos stands straight up and walks forward, leaving openings to the body and head. He predicts a body shot knockout. He respects dos Santos's potential but thinks Kape is on the road to a title shot.

Bet placed at minus 340. Levi says he lined Kape at 83-88% and should be minus 500 to minus 750. Predicts body shot KO.
"This is my first bet of the night I took Manel cap actually at minus 340 a few days ago and here's why."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Lucrative James believes Manel Kape is the better striker and will likely knock out Felipe dos Santos in round one. He notes that dos Santos fights like a lunatic, walking forward with pressure, but that style won't work against Kape's level. James acknowledges Kape can be low volume and has shown quit under pressure, but he thinks dos Santos's aggression will force Kape to crack him. He also mentions Kape's takedown and submission potential as additional paths.

"I think monarchy is going to roll here guys"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Kape has tremendous experience and is difficult to deal with in the striking realm. He crashes the pocket and lands big shots. Dos Santos is a UFC newcomer who was scheduled for the contender series; this is a massive step up. Kape should be motivated and finish emphatically, possibly earning a highlight reel finish.

"I fully expect cop to eventually land that big shot and get the win in this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Paul picks Kape, noting that dos Santos is too green and that Kape's takedown defense and striking should be enough. He mentions that Kape may even be able to wrestle to secure rounds. Paul's only concern is that Kape might not throw enough, making the fight close, but he believes Kape covers the price.

"cop minus 370 no I don't like it but pretty pretty clear pick for me cop"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Manel Kape

The MMA Guru picks Manel Kape over Felipe dos Santos, calling him 'the based one.' He notes that Kape has improved since his debut loss to Pantoja, with impressive finishes over Zhalgas Zhumagulov and David Dvorak. Dos Santos is 7-0 but has a split decision over a 5-2 regional opponent, which is not enough to pick him over Kape. He predicts Kape will have some trouble in round one but find a finish in round two or three.

finish in round 2 or 3
"I'm gonna go with manil cap"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Dec 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Manel Kape 0 33 of 94 35% 55 of 122 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:42
David Dvořák 1 58 of 119 48% 67 of 136 0 of 0 --- 2 1 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Manel Kape 0 6 of 15 40% 16 of 26 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:59
David Dvořák 0 2 of 9 22% 7 of 18 0 of 0 --- 2 1 0:17
2 Manel Kape 0 14 of 33 42% 25 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
David Dvořák 1 37 of 63 58% 38 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
3 Manel Kape 0 13 of 46 28% 14 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
David Dvořák 0 19 of 47 40% 22 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Manel Kape 33 of 94 35% 17 of 68 6 of 12 10 of 14 31 of 91 1 of 2 1 of 1
David Dvořák 58 of 119 48% 33 of 85 19 of 26 6 of 8 44 of 99 5 of 5 9 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Manel Kape 6 of 15 40% 2 of 9 0 of 2 4 of 4 5 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 1
David Dvořák 2 of 9 22% 2 of 7 0 of 1 0 of 1 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Manel Kape 14 of 33 42% 6 of 19 5 of 8 3 of 6 13 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
David Dvořák 37 of 63 58% 22 of 45 14 of 16 1 of 2 24 of 44 4 of 4 9 of 15
3 Manel Kape 13 of 46 28% 9 of 40 1 of 2 3 of 4 13 of 45 0 of 1 0 of 0
David Dvořák 19 of 47 40% 9 of 33 5 of 9 5 of 5 18 of 46 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
David Dvorak vs. Manel Kape
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kape (-240), Dvorak (+200)

Round 1
Flyweights grace the cage next in a surprisingly important matchup for divisional relevance, surprising in how low this fight is placed for one that will determine a top-10 fighter at 125 pounds. Dvorak (20-4, 3-1 UFC) currently resides within that range, while Kape (17-6, 2-2 UFC) aims to break in and likely hunts for a dramatic finish to get there. With only five decisions across their 37 pro wins, referee Keith Peterson expects no nonsense here. There is no bad blood, as the contenders touch ‘em up before aiming to knock the other’s block off. The fighters are tentative to begin, heavily respecting the power of the other. Dvorak stays on the outside well out of striking range, and he scores one calf kick before darting away. Kape lines up his heavy overhand right but does not launch it, as Dvorak strafes away. Kape begins to showboat by putting his hands behind his back, hoping that he will draw Dvorak into an engagement, and he switches stances to give chase. Dvorak sinks in another powerful calf kick, and Kape is quick to changes stances to protect that lead wheel. Kape walks into a kick, and Dvorak continues to move and do circles around the cage. When Dvorak goes after another kick, Kape springs into action with a few punches, and Dvorak escapes in the nick of time. Kape charges and scores an uppercut, and as he attempts to follow it, Dvorak intercepts him and hits a speedy takedown to land in side control. When “The Undertaker” looks to pass to mount, Kape drags him back to his guard and closes it. Dvorak exerts heavy shoulder pressure and tries to weigh heavily, and Kape throws a few strikes from off his back. Kape gets stacked up and cracked with a left hand, and he fights off a Kape triangle or armbar setup. Kape isolates the left arm for a kimura, possibly looking to sweep his foe, and Dvorak settles for elbows to the thigh and side to answer. Kape keeps cranking the arm, and he gets it out and puts it behind Dvorak’s back and rolls his foe over. Dvorak fights with all his might to tough it out, and Kape torques it to a nasty angle but does not get the tap he seeks. The round ends before he can achieve the submission, but it might have won him the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Kape

Round 2
Doctors check Dvorak between rounds to make sure his left arm has not taken any serious damage, as he held it walking back to his corner. He shows the medical staff he can stretch his arms just fine, and he is cleared to continue. The second round begins cautiously again, as Dvorak does not throw much from that hurt wing, but he doubles down with right hands when Kape comes at him. Kape waits for the perfect shot, staying in the center of the cage without using much offense, and springing into action every so often. Dvorak sees the blitzes coming and circles away from the power, moving laterally when Kape changes stances to chase. Kape bears down on his man and cracks him with two short punches, and he hops away when “The Undertaker” wings a right hand at him. Dvorak times a big right over the top, but it is one-and-done as Kape counters and misses. Dvorak thumps a calf kick home to prompt a change in stances, and he walks straight into a flying knee. Kape lines up a right hook and ducks straight into a head kick, but he eats it without issue and plods forward. Kape points at his damaged opponent and staggers him with a short salvo, doing enough to make Dvorak falls to his back. Dvorak aims upkicks while Kape attempts to finish the job, and he survives and even throws a wild kick off his back to nearly slap Kape in the face. “Starboy” calls him to stand back up, and he marches forward to rip the body with a pair of punches, Kape knows his foe is in trouble, and he bust him up with punches to the head and ribcage. Dvorak is tough, and he absorbs a clean spinning back elbow on the jaw and times the movement perfectly to shove Kape over, move on top and take Kape’s back. Nearly able to reach for a rear-naked choke, Dvorak elects to heel kick the side and posterior until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Kape

Round 3
Fists get bumped to start off the last round, and Dvorak’s movement and footwork is back beneath him after having the minute to clear his head. Dvorak swings and misses with two lunging hooks, and he dips back when Kape swats at him with a left hook. Dvorak begins to press forward, and he reaches up with spinning high kick. Kape dodges and showboats to look around and away, and Dvorak lunges in to strike. Kape intercepts him with a low kick and a short left hand, but Dvorak continues to move and throw in response. Dvorak gets a right hand over the top, and he closes in and gets uppercutted for his work. Kape is in his element, sniping with strikes and busting the Czech fighter’s nose open. When Kape leaps in, Dvorak pushes off with his fingers out, and Kape calls an eye poke. Peterson sees the possible foul, assesses that it was a legal but odd push-off, and restarts them. Dvorak goes low with a calf kick and scores a left, and Kape begins to start dribbling an invisible basketball. Dvorak races in with a takedown, knowing he is likely down on the scorecards, and Kape is too slick to get hold of him for long. Dvorak comes in with a jab, and Kape puts his hands behind his back and leans forward. When Kape attempts to set up a knee, Dvorak catches him with a left hook, but Kape does not mind. Dvorak lands again, and Kape gets caught but still continues to motion and make fun of his opponent. Dvorak gets hit on the way in, but he connects with his own punches until they crash together. Peterson checks to make sure the two did not clash heads, and he resets them in the clinch. Dvorak pushes off and swings with all his might, tagging Kape with a left and a right. Kape dances out of the way and swaggers off, with “The Undertaker” unable to catch him before the final bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape (30-27 Kape)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kape (30-27 Kape)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Kape (30-27 Kape)

The Official Result
Manel Kape def. David Dvorak via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)
David Dvořák

Angelo picks David Dvořák, believing his technical soundness and leg kicks will neutralize Manel Kape's explosiveness. He expects a somewhat boring fight similar to Dvořák's last one, with Dvořák chopping down the tree and taking a decision. He notes Kape can be hesitant and lets opponents set the pace.

Plans to bet on Dvořák plus 3.5 (bet online exclusive) because he thinks Dvořák can win or at least lose a 29-28 decision
"I like Dvorak to chop down the tree and take the decision this is a striker for Striker but I do think it's gonna be a pretty boring fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Big Brady likes Kape to finish Dvořák, noting Kape's 94% finish rate as a flyweight. He acknowledges Kape can be low-volume and has lost decisions when he doesn't let his hands go, but in recent fights he's been more active. He thinks Kape's takedown defense has improved, and if he keeps it on the feet he'll land a big shot. He predicts a second-round knockout.

Kape wins by KO in round 2
"I like cop here I think is very dangerous I like him to finish Dvorak and I will say he does finish him in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Cody picks Kape, noting his dynamic striking and power. He thinks Kape has turned a corner with his aggression and volume. He notes Dvořák is durable but low output, and Kape's shots will matter more. He expects Kape to get the job done.

"sign me up from mental copy get the job done"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Connor picks Kape, citing his fight-changing power and athleticism. He notes Dvořák got rocked multiple times by Nicolau and Kape is faster and more powerful. He thinks Kape's pressure will be effective and that Dvořák's consistency may not overcome Kape's danger.

"I just can't really look at that nikolov fight in particular and see dvorak just getting rocked so many times without leaning towards mano cop"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2022 (fight day)
David Dvořák

Dvořák has many paths to victory if he stays safe. He was a -125 favorite against Nico last time, showing his potential. After one loss, Kape is now a big favorite, which doesn't make sense. If the fight goes the full 15 minutes, the +205 will look good. Dvořák needs to stay conscious.

1 unit at +205
"Dvorak has a lot of uh paths to Victory here if he can stay safe uh which is possible"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Paul picks Kape but is not confident, noting both fighters are low volume. He thinks the minus 235 is scary if it goes to decision. He sees Dvořák as the value side but picks Kape for the show.

"I'll pick cop for the purposes of the show but not a spot that I have very very much confidence in"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Manel Kape

The MMA Guru picks Manel Kape over David Dvořák, believing Kape should have beaten Matheus Nicolau and has looked impressive against Zhalgas Zhumagulov and Ode' Osbourne. He questions Dvořák's level, noting his close fight with Nicolau and lack of explosiveness. He sees Kape as more explosive with higher finishing potential and good work on the outside, where Dvořák operates. He predicts a 29-28 or 30-27 decision win for Kape.

"I'm going to be going with manil cap here over David Dvorak"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Zane picks Kape, noting he is a more dangerous, faster, harder-hitting fighter. He thinks Dvořák is consistent but Kape's power is rare at flyweight. He acknowledges Dvořák could find a back take in a scramble but expects Kape to hit him hard enough to prevent that.

"It is really just a simple athleticism pick like cop it's just a more dangerous faster harder hitting fighter"
TKO (punches) R1 4:02 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo · Dec 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Manel Kape 2 53 of 72 73% 54 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 31 of 79 39% 31 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Manel Kape 2 53 of 72 73% 54 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 31 of 79 39% 31 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Manel Kape 53 of 72 73% 39 of 56 5 of 7 9 of 9 53 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 31 of 79 39% 19 of 61 6 of 11 6 of 7 31 of 78 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Manel Kape 53 of 72 73% 39 of 56 5 of 7 9 of 9 53 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 31 of 79 39% 19 of 61 6 of 11 6 of 7 31 of 78 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Manel Kape vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Round 1
When this flyweight fight ends, one of the two competitors between Kape (16-6, 1-2 UFC) and Zhumagulov (14-5, 1-2 UFC) will likely lift their UFC record to .500 and earn their second victory under the organization’s banner. In this classic battle of Angola vs. Kazakhstan, referee Keith Peterson may have his hands full overseeing what could be a fast-paced contest, but there will be no nonsense allowed while it takes place. Kape is amped up, and Peterson backs him off several times, and there is no sign of respect with a glove touch. Kape leaps out of his corner when the round begins in an attempt to beat Jorge Masvidal’s record, but Zhumagulov sees it come and pushes it away. Kape pops him with a right hand on the way out, but Zhumagulov is not fazed and pressures Kape with a few big punches. As Kape goes low with a kick, Zhumagulov tags him with an overhand right that knocks Kape back to the wall and draws a huge smile on his face. Zhumagulov does not get too aggressive, instead finding his range with an uppercut and a right hand. Zhumagulov trips, but he gathers himself before Kape can take advantage of it. The Kazakh marches Kape down, but he does not do so recklessly into a counter that Kape sets up in the form of a huge right hand. Zhumagulov steps forward with a knee, and he snaps a jab out that surprises Kape. They trade quick punches, and Zhumagulov follows up an exchange with a leg kick. When Kape lands with another kick to the calf, Zhumagulov jumps forward to drill him in the face. Zhumagulov checks one such kick, and he evades the leaping knee that soars at his chin. Kape tries to stick and move, only for Zhumagulov to follow him with a pair of punches that land flush. Zhumagulov swings a kick that collides into the thigh, and he rushes in with a punch salvo that Kape cannot escape in time. Kape lands with a left and a right, only for him to get countered on the way out. Kape continues to connect with leg kicks, and he sits down on a right hand that knocks Zhumagulov to his seat. Kape cannot keep Zhumagulov down, so when Zhumagulov stands, he busts him up with a few big right hands that send him careening to the wall.
Seeing he has his man hurt, Kape opens up with a brutal series of punches to the head and body and tees off on Zhumagulov. Zhumagulov tries to shell up and protect himself from the onslaught, but lightning-quick strikes get through and drop Zhumagulov down to the ground.
Peterson intervenes as soon as Zhumagulov slumps over, and Kape may very well have saved himself from a pink slip with an emphatic knockout over an opponent that had only been finished once in his career, back in 2015.

The Official Result
Manel Kape def. Zhalgas Zhumagulov R1 4:02 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Angelo picks Zhalgas, liking the odds at +190. He notes Zhalgas is a chain wrestler with relentless pressure, and Manel has a negative striking differential and makes IQ mistakes. Angelo thinks Zhalgas can win via takedowns or cage control, but is nervous about the line moving.

1 unit at +190 (considered but not yet placed)
"i like zalgas here i i like the odds are worrisome before i even saw the odds i just saw the match up and i was like well zalgas right that's easy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Big Brady picks Manel Kape to win by knockout. He believes Kape is the more skilled and well-rounded fighter, with better striking, wrestling, and BJJ. However, he expresses frustration with Kape's low volume, noting that if Kape would throw more, he could be a serious problem. He thinks Kape's 94% finish rate suggests he will finish Zhumagulov, who has been knocked out before. Brady is confident but not overly so due to Kape's tendency to underperform.

by knockout
"give me uh manel cop to win by knockout here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Cody agrees with Paul, not making a pick. He thinks Kape's price is too high given his low output and that Zhumagulov's volume could cause problems. Cody says he can't recommend betting Kape at -250.

"yep i agree with you on all fronts there"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 2, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Daniel Levi picks Manel Kape to knock out Zhalgas Zhumagulov. He believes Kape has ridiculous speed, movement, and punching power, and that Zhumagulov is small for the weight class and can be bullied. He notes that Zhumagulov is always on the back foot and that Kape can eat his best shots. He thinks Kape will finish him, possibly after working for it.

knockout
"I'm gonna go with manila cape to knock him out"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Jacob picks Zhalgas, placing a plus 3.5 round bet at -110. He notes Zhalgas is intelligent and will time takedowns, and Manel is overconfident and has decision losses. Jacob thinks Zhalgas will find a way to win, possibly by stealing rounds.

Plus 3.5 round bet on Zhalgas at -110
"i have a three and a half bet on him um you know if kate finds a way to uh you know pull out another win then maybe i'll i'll jump on his bandwagon"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Manel Kape

I lean Kape. He is the more talented striker with power and speed, but his output is a concern. Zhumagulov keeps a decent pace and is durable. I think Kape's power will be the difference, but the fight is likely to go the distance. I like the fight goes to decision prop at minus 165 and Kape by decision at plus 130.

Kape by decision +130, fight goes to decision -165
"i am leaning on the cop side here i'm not paying minus 260 at this point in time because again it could be a very very close fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick, expressing skepticism about Kape's -250 price. He notes Kape's low output and lack of urgency, and that Zhumagulov is a high-volume fighter who could make it close. Paul thinks the line is too high and that Kape might not finish, making it a risky bet.

"for minus 250 this is a walk in the park i don't necessarily think it's a walk in the park knocking out zogus good luck body good luck so you're gonna have to fight him for 15 minutes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2021 (fight day)
Manel Kape

The MMA Guru picks Manel Kape to win by third-round TKO via knee. He expects a slow first round with clinch work, then Kape's leg kicks and body knees will take effect. In the third, Zhumagulov will be compromised, and Kape will land a fight-ending knee in the clinch, similar to his fight against Matias Nicolau.

third round tko
"i'm going to go manila cap third round tko that's what i'm going to do"
Asu Almabayev - Fight History
SCHED vs Charles Johnson
WIN vs Alex Perez
Submission R3 0:22 · UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Nov 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Perez 0 40 of 98 40% 84 of 143 3 of 5 60% 0 0 2:18
Asu Almabayev 0 36 of 90 40% 68 of 126 2 of 5 40% 1 0 1:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Perez 0 18 of 60 30% 40 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Asu Almabayev 0 20 of 45 44% 20 of 45 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:58
2 Alex Perez 0 21 of 37 56% 43 of 60 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:18
Asu Almabayev 0 13 of 40 32% 45 of 76 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
3 Alex Perez 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Asu Almabayev 0 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Perez 40 of 98 40% 14 of 57 15 of 23 11 of 18 32 of 85 3 of 7 5 of 6
Asu Almabayev 36 of 90 40% 24 of 76 8 of 10 4 of 4 32 of 84 4 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Perez 18 of 60 30% 2 of 32 9 of 16 7 of 12 18 of 58 0 of 2 0 of 0
Asu Almabayev 20 of 45 44% 12 of 37 6 of 6 2 of 2 17 of 41 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Alex Perez 21 of 37 56% 11 of 24 6 of 7 4 of 6 13 of 26 3 of 5 5 of 6
Asu Almabayev 13 of 40 32% 9 of 34 2 of 4 2 of 2 12 of 38 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Alex Perez 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Asu Almabayev 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Asu Almabayev vs. Alex Perez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabayev (-200); Perez (+170)

Round 1
A pair of speedster flyweights grace the cage, with a potential passing of the torch moment possible even though these two athletes are separated by just two years of age. The relative elder statesman, former title challenger Perez (25-9, 7-5 UFC) grew up in the Tachi Palace Fights circuit after the WEC was absorbed by the UFC. His Kazakhstani foe Almabayev (22-3, 5-1 UFC) bounded around Russia and the CIS for his early career, taking fights in noteworthy leagues like Alash Pride, Tech-Krep FC, ACB and M-1 before landing in the big leagues here. Referee Dan Movahedi will keep things on the up-and-up as the prelims keep going, and the fighters elect to touch gloves.
Perez keeps his range early with front kick offerings, using them as range-finders and not to necessarily attack and cause damage. Almabayev waits to score a single low kick, and Perez charges him with fists flying. Almabayev responds with a wheel kick that collides with the guard, and Perez gets his leg kick back. Perez swings like a wild man, and his low kick opens up strikes up top. Almabayev fires back and then shoots down for an extremely low single down on Perez’ hips. Perez defends by putting his back to the wall and hacking at the side of the head with elbows. Movahedi warns him to not smack the Kazakh in the back of the head, and Almabayev spins Perez around but cannot put him down to the floor. Perez escapes, and he resets and rushes Almabayev again with a wide left hook. Perez mixes up his punches to the body and head with his flurries, and he ends a combination with a front kick. Almabayev kicks him in the ribs and just misses a spinning back fist. Perez darts in recklessly, arms wide, and he hurls punches as Almabayev shells up and rebounds off the wall.
Perez kicks and loads up on punches, allowing Almabayev to time knees up the middle for counters. Perez ignores them and fires off hard calf kicks, and he sways back to watch a huge right hand whiz past his face. Almabayev swings hard with his right, and Perez chips away with his kick. Almabayev kicks back, and they trade hooks at the same time. A pair of tiny tornadoes—not of the Tecia Pennington variety—go at it like whirling dervishes or Beyblades, depending on one’s preferred reference. They lay into one another violently, and neither appears to gain the upper hand as the pendulum swings back and forth. Almabayev times a takedown when Perez swings for the fences, tripping away the Californian’s balance and placing him gingerly to the mat. Perez elbows him in the back of the head a few times, and remains elbowing and not settling until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev

Round 2
The flyweights clap hands, and Perez is loaded for bear and ready to unload. He proceeds to stalk Almabayev down and let his hands go. Almabayev is more than prepared with his uppercut to counter, although he takes a low kick and a right hand that put him on the floor. Perez dives down with a blistering right hand, and Almabayev shakes it off and bursts back to his feet. Perez sprints at his foe and wraps him up with a body lock to wrest him to the mat. Almabayev once more is able to get up without taking a lot of damage, and he pays Perez back with an uppercut and a right hook. Perez swings for the bleachers back at him, and their heads clack together when letting loose. Almabayev gets off another uppercut, and he reaches Perez at the end of a right hand. Perez practically runs at the retreating Almabayev to hit him back, seemingly possessing the strategy of trying to give Almabayev one back every time Almabayev strikes him. Almabayev spins with a well-timed back kick that pounds into the liver, and Perez does not love this and keeps a stiff upper lip before rushing Almabayev and tackling him to the floor.
Perez establishes himself on top, attacking with punches and elbows when he manages to find an opening. Almabayev elbows him off his back, and several of them bang into the back of Perez’ head, drawing a warning. Almabayev turns to his knees to get up, and Perez wraps him up with a head lock and knees him in the forehead. Almabayev swings his way out of the position and backs off Perez with his blows. Another spinning kick from the Kazakh misses the mark, so he shoots for a single. Perez hops around and puts his back to the wall to stay afloat, and he elbows Almabayev in the dome before letting go. Almabayev drives an uppercut home, and Perez goes for his own single that he uses to bowl Almabayev to the wall. Almabayev counters with a trip takedown, and the back-and-forth round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Perez

Round 3
The round kicks off with another spinning wheel kick from Almabayev, which stuns Perez and opens him up to danger. Perez staggers to the side and gathers his thoughts to shoot in for a double.
Almabayev leaps in the air to snatch up a flying guillotine choke, wrapping his legs around the waist and wrenching the grip with all of his might. Perez, who knows his goose is cooked as the choke is vice-like and about to deplete him of his consciousness, has no choice but to tap out while still standing up.
This marks the fifth time that Perez has had to surrender because someone had control of his neck, and it is undoubtedly the biggest win of the career of “Zulfikhar.” On a two-fight win streak, he calls for a title shot and a post-fight bonus.

The Official Result
Asu Almabayev def. Alex Perez R3 0:22 via Submission (Flying Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Angelo picks Asu Almabayev over Alex Perez, calling it an easy win. He criticizes Perez's continued employment and describes Almabayev as a flashy striker and dominant grappler with strong pressure and takedowns. Perez's leg kicks and boxing won't work against Almabayev's aggression. Angelo expects a decision win for Almabayev.

Over two and a half is as good as gold here. Minus 190.
"As Sue is the pick over two and a half is also as good as gold here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Big Brady leans Asu Almabayev by second-round submission, citing Perez's injury history and submission vulnerabilities. He expects Almabayev to get the fight to the ground and submit Perez, who has tapped out five times. He notes Perez's takedown defense but believes Almabayev will find a way.

second round submission
"I'm going to take Almabaev to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Alex Perez

Cody picks Alex Perez confidently, noting his world-class skills despite injury history. He believes Perez is the better striker and grappler, and that Almabayev is one-dimensional with low volume. Cody thinks Perez can stuff takedowns and outpoint Almabayev, and the plus money is worth the risk.

"I got Perez as well. Part of it, you got to get dog money."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Almabayev but emphasizing that if Perez is in shape and healthy, Almabayev doesn't have a game to beat him. He notes Perez's injuries and the fact that he gets caught in subs or blasted by bigger punchers, but doesn't get controlled and out-wrestled. He calls it a good booking.

"I'll take Amabayev as well, but it is really just, I mean, if Perez is in shape and healthy and shows up, then I don't think that Amabayev has a game that's going to really beat him."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Lucrative James picks Asu Almabayev but with hesitation. He notes Perez's tendency to give up his back and get submitted, and his recent knee surgery. He believes Almabayev's grappling will be the difference, predicting a submission or close decision. He acknowledges Perez could win on the feet early.

"I think Asus starts off pretty poorly... at some point he gives up his back in a scramble... and he gets finished once again."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Almabayev has a better gas tank and scrambling ability. Perez is coming off a knee injury and layoff. Almabayev's speed, power, and grappling should overwhelm Perez, leading to a decision win.

"I'll go Alabive and Alma by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Alex Perez

Paul picks Alex Perez, citing his superior striking and wrestling. He notes that Almabayev relies on takedowns and has poor striking volume. Paul believes Perez can defend takedowns and win on the feet, and the plus money is attractive.

"Everything leads me towards a dog play on Alex Perez here at like plus 180."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

The MMA Guru picks Asu Almabayev over Alex Perez, citing Almabayev's well-rounded game and ability to mix takedowns with striking. He questions Perez's inactivity and believes Almabayev's pressure will be too much. He predicts a 29-28 decision win.

win by decision 29-28
"I'm going to go with Asuel Mamedov here against Alex Perez."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Zane picks Almabayev on 'vibes' due to Perez's injury history and unreliability. He notes that if Perez is healthy, Almabayev's game may not beat him, but he doesn't trust Perez to hold up. He mentions Almabayev's submission skills but says he's not a submission hunter, and that Perez has been competitive but plagued by injuries.

Odds: Almabayev opened -129, now -210; Perez opened +119, now +180. Zane comments that the line movement suggests 'some kind of money' on Almabayev.
"I'll take Amabayev on vibes, right? It's just really hard to trust Perez."
WIN vs Jose Ochoa
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder · Jul 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Asu Almabayev 0 22 of 42 52% 55 of 90 7 of 16 43% 2 0 9:26
Jose Ochoa 0 26 of 45 57% 118 of 151 1 of 1 100% 2 0 0:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Asu Almabayev 0 5 of 10 50% 10 of 18 3 of 6 50% 2 0 3:16
Jose Ochoa 0 10 of 18 55% 36 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:43
2 Asu Almabayev 0 11 of 20 55% 32 of 45 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:47
Jose Ochoa 0 5 of 9 55% 46 of 56 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:09
3 Asu Almabayev 0 6 of 12 50% 13 of 27 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:23
Jose Ochoa 0 11 of 18 61% 36 of 46 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Asu Almabayev 22 of 42 52% 12 of 26 5 of 11 5 of 5 13 of 20 3 of 6 6 of 16
Jose Ochoa 26 of 45 57% 8 of 19 13 of 18 5 of 8 17 of 33 9 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Asu Almabayev 5 of 10 50% 3 of 6 1 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 8 0 of 2 0 of 0
Jose Ochoa 10 of 18 55% 1 of 6 5 of 6 4 of 6 8 of 15 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Asu Almabayev 11 of 20 55% 5 of 12 3 of 5 3 of 3 5 of 6 2 of 3 4 of 11
Jose Ochoa 5 of 9 55% 2 of 3 3 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 7 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Asu Almabayev 6 of 12 50% 4 of 8 1 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 6 1 of 1 2 of 5
Jose Ochoa 11 of 18 61% 5 of 10 5 of 6 1 of 2 5 of 11 6 of 7 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Asu Almabayev vs. Jose Ochoa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabayev (-110); Ochoa (-110)

Round 1
The momentum of a 17-fight win streak for Almabayev (21-3, 4-1 UFC) came to a screeching halt not just because of his loss to Manel Kape, but
how
Ochoa is ready for combat, attacking repeatedly with low kicks and a hard left hand. Almabayev ties him up after taking a clean land, and he absorbs a knee and a left hand on the way to trying to take the fight down. Ochoa keeps his balance with the wall behind him, and he quickly pops up when Almabayev drags him to his knees. Almabayev uses a body lock to hurl “Kalzifer” to the floor, landing in side control, but once more Ochoa bursts back to his feet even with his fellow flyweight holding onto him. Almabayev looks to jump and take the back standing, but he falls off the back. On a second effort, Almabayev is able to take the back upright, but he has to hook his toes in the fence to stay balanced. He releases the grip and separates.
As Ochoa bears down on his opponent, Almabayev tags him with a punch and a high kick. Ochoa keeps pressing forward, and Almabayev slickly ducks under and drags him to the mat, where he gets on his back and starts crushing Ochoa’s nose with a face crank. Almabayev climbs onto his foe’s back while Ochoa is on his feet, and Ochoa leans against the fence to take some of the weight off of him. Almabayev hunts for a choke but is in the wrong position as he is nearly wriggled off, and he tries for a desperation leglock to stay there. He lets it go, and Ochoa rushes after him laying into him with his fists. Almabayev tries a takedown, and he narrowly avoids a knee on the way back up after it fails. Almabayev spins for a back kick, and Ochoa pushes through and takes his back with 30 seconds to go, setting up the body triangle as soon as he lands. Both men decided against submissions and start punching each other from that specific position until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev

Round 2
The fighters tap hands together twice to get going, and Ochoa is the aggressor although he walks through two low kicks and a takedown shot. Almabayev gets hold of the single and wrangles Ochoa to a knee but no further, as Ochoa springs back up. Ochoa goes after the Kazakhstan native, digging a body shot and firing off a knee up top. Almabayev ducks into a head kick but still manages to complete the takedown he was seeking. Ochoa scrambles as Almabayev is looking to pass, and he stands up and grabs hold of the neck of his opponent to threaten. Almabayev shakes out of it and knees his foe in the stomach. They trade some strikes on the inside and separate. Ochoa shrugs off a punch up top to nail Almabayev with a left hand and a knee, and Almabayev crashes through his hips to complete a takedown.
Almabayev lands in the guard, where he remains comfortably and gets off the occasional strike. Ochoa makes Almabayev think twice about smothering his foe freely thanks to a number of hammerfists off his back that have some surprising pop on them. Almabayev attempts to pass to the side, looking to work through the knee shield from the Peruvian. Ochoa throws up an armbar off his back from out of nowhere, and he is warned for grabbing Almabayev’s gloves to set it up. Ochoa loses the grip as Almabayev yanks out of the posture, but he immediately sets up a triangle choke to further threaten. Ochoa hooks his foot under his knee, holding onto the maneuver as the horn blows.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev

Round 3
The flyweights meet in the middle, and Almabayev lands first with a low kick. He tries to follow his success with a looping right hand, and he wings an overhand right to the stomach that allows him to shoot in on Ochoa’s hips. Ochoa attempts a knee to catch Almabayev coming at him, and he is dragged to his seat when it does not hit the wrestler flush. Almabayev grabs the fence, and Herzog calls him on it and breaks them apart. Almabayev apologizes, but he goes right after Ochoa for another takedown, this time in the open cage. Ochoa jumps guard for a guillotine choke, and it is tight until it is not as Almabayev calmly wriggles his neck out. Ochoa sets up a triangle choke from his high guard off his back, but Almabayev is able to easily break out of it.
Almabayev frames off with elbows to hammer down on the Peruvian, and Ochoa fights back every movement with hammerfists or some sort of scramble. Ochoa manages to turn to his knees and get upright with 90 second to spare, and Almabayev thanks him for this with a body kick and a takedown shot. Ochoa stuffs this attempt and is pushed to the wall, where they knee one another in the guts. Ochoa knocks Almabayev back with an elbow, and Almabayev points down at the floor to suggest that he wants to brawl for the final minute. Ochoa does not oblige him, so Almabayev surges into action with a left hand and a double. Ochoa puts his back to the wall and elbows the Kazakh in the side of the melon, until he gets free with a few seconds left. Ochoa overswings a right hand, and Almabayev ducks beneath him and takes his back standing. The fight ends with Almabayev holding on from behind.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev (30-27 Almabayev)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev (30-27 Almabayev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev (30-27 Almabayev)

The Official Result
Asu Almabayev def. Jose Ochoa via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Angelo picks Asu Almabayev despite the line swinging to make him an underdog. He notes Asu's flashy striking, dominant grappling, and ability to control range, while Jose Ochoa is on short notice. Angelo believes Asu's pace and pressure will be decisive, though he expects a close fight that may rely on judges. He placed a bet on Asu at -105.

Bet on Asu at -105; surprised Jose is favorite
"I actually placed a bet on ASU. I think ASU wins here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jose Ochoa

Big Brady picks Jose Ochoa, citing his striking advantage and power. He believes Ochoa will stuff takedowns and get back up if taken down, then dominate on the feet. He notes Almabayev has low volume and no power, while Ochoa is a dangerous striker with finishing ability. He predicts a second-round knockout.

second round knockout
"I like Ooa here. ... I'll pick him to knock out Austin, and I'll take him to win by second round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jose Ochoa

Connor sees Ochoa as a determined pressure fighter with fast hands who will punish Almabayev's rote responses. He notes that Almabayev struggled against Mennel Kopp's pressure and Ochoa is even more aggressive. He acknowledges the risk of Almabayev's clinch control but believes Ochoa's damage output will be decisive.

Odds moved from +330 to -105; Connor says 'I would think it very sensible to throw a little bit on him.'
"I have to pick Ochoa."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Almabayev is a much better grappler than Ochoa's previous opponent Duran. He should chain wrestle well, outscramble Ochoa, keep him in bad spots, and have striking success to win on the scorecards.

decision
"Almabay is a much better grappler than Deran and I think he'll be able to chain wrestle well enough out scramble ooa keep him in some bad spots and even have some striking success I like how to win this …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jose Ochoa

The MMA Guru picks Jose Ochoa, noting his near-win over Lona Cavanaught on short notice and his good grappling defense. He believes Almabayev's competition has been weak and that Ochoa's length and finishing potential will be key. He predicts a first or second-round finish for Ochoa.

Finish, round 1 or 2
"I'm going to go with A Choa. ... I'm going to say A Choa gets this one done by finish in the first or second round over Alabv."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jose Ochoa

Zane picks Ochoa as well, calling it a 'hope pick' because he loves Ochoa's game. He worries about Almabayev's clinch control but notes Ochoa's takedown defense and ability to get back up. He believes Ochoa's striking creativity and power will be the difference.

"Yeah, me too."
LOSS vs Manel Kape
KO R3 2:16 · UFC Fight Night 253 · Mar 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Manel Kape 0 61 of 115 53% 62 of 119 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:29
Asu Almabayev 0 40 of 80 50% 40 of 81 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Manel Kape 0 19 of 40 47% 20 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Asu Almabayev 0 14 of 28 50% 14 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Manel Kape 0 14 of 27 51% 14 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Asu Almabayev 0 18 of 40 45% 18 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Manel Kape 0 28 of 48 58% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Asu Almabayev 0 8 of 12 66% 8 of 13 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Manel Kape 61 of 115 53% 47 of 95 11 of 17 3 of 3 46 of 94 9 of 15 6 of 6
Asu Almabayev 40 of 80 50% 19 of 55 13 of 17 8 of 8 38 of 77 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Manel Kape 19 of 40 47% 15 of 33 3 of 6 1 of 1 19 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Asu Almabayev 14 of 28 50% 7 of 20 6 of 7 1 of 1 14 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Manel Kape 14 of 27 51% 10 of 23 2 of 2 2 of 2 14 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Asu Almabayev 18 of 40 45% 7 of 27 6 of 8 5 of 5 17 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Manel Kape 28 of 48 58% 22 of 39 6 of 9 0 of 0 13 of 27 9 of 15 6 of 6
Asu Almabayev 8 of 12 66% 5 of 8 1 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kape (-205), Almabayev (+170)

Round 1
Rather than throwing hands with Brandon Royval, Kape (20-7, 5-3 UFC) gets a new foe on relatively short notice. Having prevailed in his last 17 outings including four in the UFC, Kazakhstan’s own Almabayev (21-2, 4-0 UFC) is ready to become a title contender. The wild flyweight stylistic clash will be overseen by referee Mike Beltran, who brings the two to the center of the cage to issue final instructions and bump fists. It’s on with the show. In alternate stances, they hand-fight early without engaging. Both men have their lead hands pop into each other until Almabayev springs into action with a powerful, audible body kick. Kape circles away and kicks the lead leg back. A lull in fight leads to a funny call from the audience, and Kape suddenly explodes forward with two left hands. Almabayev bounces off the wall and responds with an overhand right that comes up short, and Kape again charges him with a left. Almabayev ducks down and fires off a right hook and follows with a body kick, and Kape takes some time before again bursting straight ahead. Two quick blitzes from “Starboy” make Almabayev shrug his shoulders before kicking the body, and Kape brushes his arm to signals the kick did not land. Kape crashes in with a left, getting close enough to push himself past a spin kick from the Kazakhstan native. Kape reaches his opponent with two punches and wipes at his eye, with Almabayev possibly scraping him in the left eye when pushing off to escape. Kape cracks Almabayev again with his explosive, leaping punch, and Almabayev rebounds and stumbles off the fencing before gathering himself. Kape times a left and opens up with a right, hurting the streaking Almabayev and opening a cut around his left eye. Almabayev has a head kick blocked, and Kape attacks with a fury, snapping Almabayev’s head back and bouncing him off the fencing once more. Almabayev jabs, and he shoots for a single as Kape races at him. Kape shuts it down without concern, walks through a spinning elbow and puts six punches in rapid succession on Almabayev’s head and body. Kape’s swinging fists lead to Almabayev trying to grab hold of him, and Kape shoves him back and walks off. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Kape

Round 2
Almabayev’s eye has taken some serious damage from Kape’s knuckles, with blood appearing in the eyeball itself and not just leaking down his nose. Almabayev starts off the rounds in hopes of not letting Kape reach him by measuring out front kicks. A failed level change from Almabayev allows Kape to catch him with a punch, and Kape allows him to kick him so he can find his way in. As Kape backs off, he ducks to anticipatorily evade a spinning back kick. Kape measures more carefully than before, not lunging nearly as often, perhaps due to the threat of the takedown. Almabayev scores a left hand, and Kape brushes his shoulder off. When Kape threatens to come in, Almabayev fires off a head kick, and he leaps at Kape with a knee. Kape stands back, marches in to swing and gets clipped with a left hook. “Starboy” shrugs it off entirely and keeps advancing, backing off only when a spin kick flies by his face. Almabayev loads up on a power leg kick, turning his hips into the strike, and Kape quickly changes stances. Almabayev scores a left hand and fires off a head kick, and Kape barely blocks the kick in time. Almabayev splits the guard with an effective front kick, and Kape is stuck staring at him, feinting but not engaging with much more than single strikes. One such right hand scores, and Kape settles himself down and then suddenly leaps forward with a flying knee. When landing, he dings Almabayev with a right hand, and he lets Almabayev rebound off the wall and wags his finger at him. Almabayev rips a left hand to the body and narrowly misses a right over the top, and Kape walks him down and slips, recovering his footing to wipe his foot off. Kape then spins with a wheel kick, and he runs at Almabayev with fists flying. Almabayev signals to Beltran that he was poked in the eye, and Kape declares that it was a punch. After just a couple seconds, the replay official states it was a punch, and he restarts the fight. Kape charges again with leaping punches, catching Almabayev at the end of a right before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Kape

Round 3
The flyweights are so amped to get back to it, Beltran has to back them off before clocking them in. Kape takes the center of the cage and has his guard up to defend a body kick, but a low kick from Almabayev lands cleanly and trips Kape up. Kape strides forward, hurling punches at the midsection of his opponent, and Almabayev circles away to take the sting out of them. Kape probes his way in and has his front leg kicked hard, and he shrugs it off to punch Almabayey square in the jaw. Almabayev strikes back just as cleanly, and Kape maintains the pressure to make Almabayev have to sprint away. Almabayev shoots for a takedown, and when it fails, he has to back off. Kape surges forward throwing hands, and Almabayev claims he was poked again in the eye and tries to call time out. Beltran is having none of it—even though it was actually a swipe on his eyeball—and Almabayev desperately shoots. Kape shuts it down and lays into Almabayev with concussive punches.
As Kape lays it on with knees and punches, Almabayev turns tail and runs away, and Kape sprints after him hitting him whenever he can reach him. Beltran follows them closely as the 125ers speed around the Octagon, and after he catches up to a retreating Almabayev, he decides to wave the fight off.
At that moment, Almabayev was shooting for a double, but Beltran may have interpreted the running from one end of the cage to the other as physically surrendering and intervened. There will be much to discuss regarding Beltran and how this fight played out, including two uncalled eye scrapes—but Beltran is the sole arbiter of the bout, and fighters cannot call time-out. There may also be some debate on the specific nature of the stoppage, as Beltran stepped in several seconds after Kape landed any strikes, and therefore would be classified differently than a standard finish like via punches or some specific blow. No matter the exact method, it goes down as a technical knockout for “Starboy,” who demands two things: a title shot, and for his daughter to be allowed in the cage and into his arms. The promotion ushers her in, and she asks if Kape won. He proudly says he did, and that he is the best. It is very likely that Kape will have an opportunity to prove he is indeed the best flyweight in the world in his next encounter, in a rematch with champion Alexandre Pantoja, who bested him in 2021. If that fight happens next, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Manel Kape def. Asu Almabayev R3 2:16 via TKO (Retirement)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Angelo picks Manel Kape because of his explosive striking and southpaw pressure, noting that Almabayev's takedown success (1/6 in his last fight) is a major concern. He believes Almabayev needs to threaten takedowns to neutralize Kape's striking, but doubts he can do so effectively. Angelo also mentions a potential live bet opportunity if Almabayev fails to secure early takedowns.

Live bet opportunity if Almabayev fails to secure early takedowns
"cop is going to have to be the pick here but it is possible that a su could win this fight the same boring ass way Manel lost to MV threaten the takedowns paralyze the Striking"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Big Brady picks Manel Kape, citing his improved takedown defense and striking advantage. He notes Asu Almabayev is stepping up in competition and likely cannot hold Kape down. He expects Kape to stuff takedowns and win by decision, but warns that Kape sometimes fights passively.

Kape by decision
"I got to go cop here I think cop is going to be able to stuff the takedowns... I'm going to pick cop to win this fight by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Connor picks Kape, emphasizing that Kape is a pressure counter-puncher who will make Almabayev work under pressure, unlike Nicolau who gave Almabayev free distance. He notes that Almabayev's approach against Nicolau was rudimentary and that Kape's speed and power will be a problem. Connor also mentions that Kape is much more talented than Nicolau and that Almabayev's level of competition hasn't been high.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I'm gonna pick top two. But yeah it could be one of those fights where we're literally just watching two people circle each other for two rounds until one of them hits the other one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Manel Kape

The host expects Kape to use his defensive grappling to shut down Almabayev's game. Once Almabayev decides to strike, that will be the beginning of the end, as Kape should land more effective strikes and possibly find a knockout, but ultimately win on the scorecards over 25 minutes.

"cap to utilizes defensive grappling to shut down that game of alv and once alv decides to strike with him that will be the beginning of the end as cap should be able to land more effective strikes might be …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Manel Kape

The Guru picks Manel Kape over Asu Almabayev. He believes Kape is the truth and will become champion. He praises Kape's recent performance against Bruno Silva and his takedown defense. He notes Kape's power advantage and finishing potential, predicting a TKO in the second or third round.

"I'm going with Manel cap... I'm actually going to go with Manel capap getting himself a TKO in the second or third round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Zane picks Kape because he is faster, more powerful, and more dynamic than Almabayev. He notes that Almabayev struggled against a similar counter-puncher in Nicolau, and Kape is a pressure counter-puncher who will maintain distance aggressively, forcing Almabayev to work under pressure. Zane acknowledges the risk of a boring decision loss but believes Kape's speed and power will find openings over five rounds.

Kape opened at -264, now -205; Almabayev opened +197, now +190. Zane says he wouldn't like to see it get any wider, implying the line is fair.
"But I'm still gonna pick mental cop. I think yeah rounds five rounds is a lot of time for cop to simply find a few openings."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Oct 19, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Asu Almabayev 0 16 of 42 38% 38 of 68 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Matheus Nicolau 1 22 of 54 40% 55 of 112 1 of 6 16% 0 0 5:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Asu Almabayev 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Matheus Nicolau 0 9 of 21 42% 9 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Asu Almabayev 0 10 of 24 41% 12 of 27 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Matheus Nicolau 0 6 of 22 27% 11 of 27 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:08
3 Asu Almabayev 0 1 of 3 33% 21 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Matheus Nicolau 1 7 of 11 63% 35 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Asu Almabayev 16 of 42 38% 8 of 26 5 of 9 3 of 7 12 of 37 0 of 0 4 of 5
Matheus Nicolau 22 of 54 40% 7 of 36 8 of 9 7 of 9 17 of 46 1 of 3 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Asu Almabayev 5 of 15 33% 1 of 8 3 of 5 1 of 2 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matheus Nicolau 9 of 21 42% 1 of 11 4 of 4 4 of 6 9 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Asu Almabayev 10 of 24 41% 6 of 16 2 of 3 2 of 5 6 of 19 0 of 0 4 of 5
Matheus Nicolau 6 of 22 27% 1 of 17 4 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 19 1 of 3 0 of 0
3 Asu Almabayev 1 of 3 33% 1 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matheus Nicolau 7 of 11 63% 5 of 8 0 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Angelo is very confident in Asu Almabayev, calling the -162 line a bargain. He highlights Nicolau's declining chin and striking vulnerability, while Almabayev is a dominant grappler with flashy striking and phenomenal control on top. He believes Almabayev wins 9 out of 10 times, either by knockout or wrestling dominance. He sees no path to victory for Nicolau if his chin fails or if he gets taken down.

"assu wins this fight nine out of 10 times minus 162 is a bargain"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

Big Brady leans toward Matheus Nicolau by decision. He notes Almabayev's hype is based on weak competition, while Nicolau has elite takedown defense (93%) and good striking, though he lacks volume and has a questionable chin. He doubts Almabayev can take Nicolau down or knock him out, so he expects Nicolau to stuff takedowns and win a close decision.

"I'm leaning with with Nicola here it's hard to trust Nicola though the chin is is one thing but I don't think he'll get knocked out here"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 18, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nicolau. He emphasizes that Nicolau is a pure counter puncher who is difficult to close down, and that Almabayev's game may not serve him well if he can't get early takedowns. Connor also notes that Almabayev's recent wins are over slower, less focused fighters, and that Nicolau represents a big step up. He doubts Almabayev can knock out Nicolau, as Almabayev rarely finishes fights.

"I am too. And I know the odds are going to be against us on this."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 21, 2026 (fight day)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Nicolau is the veteran but will have a hard time against the grappler and relentless style of Almabayev. Almabayev will do a good job closing the distance and keeping Nicolau on the defensive, allowing him to grind out a win on the scorecards.

"I think that will see alabay do a good job in terms of closing the distance and keeping Nicola on the defensive allowing alab to grind this fight out and win it on the scorecards"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

The Guru picks Nicolau despite acknowledging he gets chinned sometimes. He believes Nicolau has elite takedown defense and will stuff Almabayev's takedowns, pointing out that Almabayev's wins came against lesser competition like Jose Johnson and CJ Vergara. He sees Nicolau as more well-rounded and expects a split decision win.

split decision
"I'm going to side with Matas Nicola here I think this is a little bit too much too soon for ASO alev"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 18, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

Zane picks Nicolau because he sees Nicolau as a pure counter puncher who will be difficult for Almabayev to close down. He notes that Almabayev struggles when he can't hit takedowns on demand, as seen in his fight with Jose Johnson where he got reversed and stuck in a triangle. Zane also points out that Nicolau has never been soundly outwrestled in the UFC and that Almabayev's striking is busy but focused entirely on gaining clinches, leaving him vulnerable to intercepting shots.

Nicolau opened at +144, now +169; Almabayev opened at -162, now -192. Zane notes the odds are reasonable for a guy coming off two knockout losses.
"I am inclined to take Nicolau here."
WIN vs Jose Johnson
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Perez vs. Taira · Jun 15, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Asu Almabayev 0 20 of 29 68% 77 of 109 6 of 11 54% 4 1 11:24
Jose Johnson 0 5 of 21 23% 58 of 79 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Asu Almabayev 0 4 of 7 57% 12 of 19 5 of 7 71% 1 0 3:24
Jose Johnson 0 3 of 11 27% 29 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Asu Almabayev 0 8 of 12 66% 34 of 47 0 of 1 0% 1 0 4:08
Jose Johnson 0 2 of 6 33% 9 of 14 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:07
3 Asu Almabayev 0 8 of 10 80% 31 of 43 1 of 3 33% 2 1 3:52
Jose Johnson 0 0 of 4 0% 20 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:52
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Asu Almabayev 20 of 29 68% 12 of 19 3 of 3 5 of 7 4 of 10 5 of 5 11 of 14
Jose Johnson 5 of 21 23% 3 of 16 1 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 18 1 of 2 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Asu Almabayev 4 of 7 57% 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 5 0 of 3 4 of 4 0 of 0
Jose Johnson 3 of 11 27% 1 of 6 1 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 10 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Asu Almabayev 8 of 12 66% 7 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 6 of 7
Jose Johnson 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Asu Almabayev 8 of 10 80% 5 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 7
Jose Johnson 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Angelo picks Asu confidently, citing his dominant wrestling, cardio, and ability to close distance. He notes Jose Johnson is a long Muay Thai striker with poor takedown defense, and Asu will take him down and control him. He expects Asu to be worth his DraftKings salary due to takedowns and potential finish.

"Asu Almabayev is going to be the pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Cody picks Almabayev but is hesitant due to the minus 600 line in a flyweight fight. He notes that Almabayev has good takedowns but poor top control, as he couldn't keep CJ Vergara down. He also highlights Jose Johnson's size (6 feet tall) and activity off his back, which could cause problems. Cody thinks Almabayev will likely win but the price is too high for comfort.

"the final verdict Almabayev but at six to one you'd expect him on the top ticket correct but he can't I can't do it."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Daniel Vreeland picks Asu Almabayev as the favorite but calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He acknowledges Jose Johnson's striking and scrambling ability but believes Almabayev's takedowns and ground game will be the difference. He notes Johnson gives up takedowns and is not a novice on the mat, but Almabayev should dominate if he gets top position.

"I'll take the minus 600 favorite but this is a doger pass situation"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Jacob picks Asu, questioning the love for Jose Johnson. He notes Jose was getting rolled by Chad Anheliger and needed a finish to avoid being 0-2. He thinks Asu's wrestling and scrambling are superior, and Jose's length won't help on the ground. He expects Asu to win easily.

"Asu is going to be the pick here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Almabayev will drag the fight to the ground, but must be wary of Johnson's knees up the middle and long limbs. He will grind from top position and win on the scorecards. This is a bad stylistic matchup for Johnson making his flyweight debut.

"I think we see alab successful in terms of dragging this fight to the ground although he needs to be wary of the knees up the middle from Johnson as well as the long limbs once they do end up …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Paul picks Almabayev, noting his well-rounded skills and takedown ability. He points out that Jose Johnson has been taken down frequently in the past and that Almabayev should be able to secure takedowns and control the fight. Paul expects Almabayev to win by decision or submission.

"Almabayev rinse and repeat takedowns should get the victory here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 11, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

The MMA Guru picks Asu Almabayev, citing his good grappling that hasn't let him down, including dominant wins over Ode' Osbourne and CJ Vergara. He notes Jose Johnson has been taken down by worse grapplers and that Almabayev should be able to keep him down. He also comments on Johnson's extreme weight cut to flyweight, suggesting he will be frail and easy to toss around.

"I'm going to go with him to himn his grappling has been good so far hasn't really let him down yet"
WIN vs C.J. Vergara
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Asu Almabayev 0 29 of 53 54% 66 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
C.J. Vergara 0 44 of 77 57% 85 of 132 9 of 14 64% 0 0 9:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Asu Almabayev 0 7 of 14 50% 13 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
C.J. Vergara 0 16 of 25 64% 23 of 34 4 of 6 66% 0 0 3:14
2 Asu Almabayev 0 8 of 12 66% 25 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
C.J. Vergara 0 12 of 21 57% 36 of 55 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:35
3 Asu Almabayev 0 14 of 27 51% 28 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
C.J. Vergara 0 16 of 31 51% 26 of 43 3 of 6 50% 0 0 2:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Asu Almabayev 29 of 53 54% 13 of 32 14 of 17 2 of 4 22 of 46 4 of 4 3 of 3
C.J. Vergara 44 of 77 57% 22 of 53 9 of 11 13 of 13 23 of 51 8 of 10 13 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Asu Almabayev 7 of 14 50% 3 of 9 3 of 3 1 of 2 4 of 11 3 of 3 0 of 0
C.J. Vergara 16 of 25 64% 7 of 15 3 of 4 6 of 6 10 of 19 2 of 2 4 of 4
2 Asu Almabayev 8 of 12 66% 5 of 8 2 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 9 0 of 0 3 of 3
C.J. Vergara 12 of 21 57% 10 of 19 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 9 1 of 2 7 of 10
3 Asu Almabayev 14 of 27 51% 5 of 15 9 of 11 0 of 1 13 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
C.J. Vergara 16 of 31 51% 5 of 19 5 of 6 6 of 6 9 of 23 5 of 6 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Angelo is confident in Asu Almabayev, citing his wild striking, strong grappling, and cardio. He notes that if Tatu Riera could take down Vergara three times, Almabayev can too. He sees Almabayev as safe to parlay, contrasting him with point fighters he's wary of.

"asu's going to win this fight he's just too good he's Wild on his feet he's great on the ground he can hang in the cardio Department with CJ and quite simply if Tatu ryra who is very good but …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Big Brady picks Asu Almabayev to win by third-round submission. He notes that Almabayev has good grappling and control, and that Vergara has been taken down and submitted in the past. He expects Almabayev to get the fight to the mat and eventually find a submission over 15 minutes.

win by third round submission
"give me alv here Alma to win this fight by third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Cody thinks Almabayev's wrestling will be too much for Vergara, who has poor takedown defense. He expects Almabayev to chain wrestle and control the fight on the ground, possibly securing a submission.

Almabayev by submission (+150)
"I gotta roll with the favorite here what is assu by sub let's see it's early in the week obviously the early prelims don't have too many props out plus 150 and moving it opened at plus 175 I mean …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Daniel picks Almabayev, believing he will dictate the pace and win by decision or submission. He notes Vergara is durable and well-rounded but not special anywhere. Daniel was initially low on Almabayev but was impressed by his performance against Ode' Osbourne.

"I think that alabay is going to dictate the pace and he's going to win on the scorecards or or by submission"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Almabayev is a hot prospect who is very solid all around, but his best work is when he gets fights to the mat. He has impressive chain wrestling, using body locks and trips to drag opponents down. Vergara is a decent striker but lacks the power to keep Almabayev at bay, and his ground game is a weakness. I expect Almabayev to drag this fight to the ground, dominate from top position, and secure another submission victory.

Almabayev by submission
"I expect alab to drag this fight to the ground dominate from that top position and secure another submission Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Paul agrees, noting that Vergara has been taken down repeatedly and submitted in the past. He thinks Almabayev's wrestling and submission skills will lead to a finish.

Almabayev by submission (+150)
"I gotta roll with the favorite here what is assu by sub let's see it's early in the week obviously the early prelims don't have too many props out plus 150 and moving it opened at plus 175 I mean …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

The MMA Guru is confident in Asu Almabayev due to his grappling advantage and C.J. Vergara's unimpressive UFC run. He notes Vergara has struggled against lower-level opponents and was dominated by Tatsuya Taira and Ode' Osbourne. He highlights Almabayev's dominant grappling win over Osbourne and predicts a first-round submission.

submission in the first round
"I am going to have to side with the grappling of ASU almv ... I'm going to go with ASU alab BV winning this fight by submission in the first round"
WIN vs Ode' Osbourne
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 3:11 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Font · Aug 05, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Asu Almabayev 0 4 of 18 22% 8 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Ode' Osbourne 0 26 of 40 65% 52 of 78 2 of 5 40% 2 0 5:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Asu Almabayev 0 3 of 8 37% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Ode' Osbourne 0 21 of 31 67% 35 of 52 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:23
2 Asu Almabayev 0 1 of 10 10% 2 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ode' Osbourne 0 5 of 9 55% 17 of 26 1 of 4 25% 1 0 2:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Asu Almabayev 4 of 18 22% 4 of 16 0 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 1
Ode' Osbourne 26 of 40 65% 17 of 31 5 of 5 4 of 4 9 of 14 0 of 0 17 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Asu Almabayev 3 of 8 37% 3 of 6 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1
Ode' Osbourne 21 of 31 67% 14 of 24 4 of 4 3 of 3 4 of 6 0 of 0 17 of 25
2 Asu Almabayev 1 of 10 10% 1 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ode' Osbourne 5 of 9 55% 3 of 7 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Angelo picks Asu Almabayev despite it being his UFC debut, citing his flashy striking and dominant wrestling. He notes that Almabayev lifts opponents off the mat and controls them, which will exhaust Osbourne. He acknowledges Osbourne has power and can wrestle, but thinks he will be outmatched. Angelo has a half-unit bet on Almabayev at -155.

0.5 units at -155
"I have a half a unit on him at minus 155"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Big Brady likes Almabayev's wrestling and control, noting he is position-over-submission and doesn't make mistakes. He thinks Almabayev will push a wrestling-heavy pace and has a cardio advantage. He acknowledges Osbourne is dangerous off his back and has power, but expects Almabayev to win by decision, staying safe on top.

Almabayev by decision
"I'm going to take amab to win this fight I'm going to take him to Win It by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Cody picks Almabayev by submission at +300, citing his strong takedown entries and transitions to the back. He notes Osbourne's poor takedown defense and history of being submitted. He believes Almabayev will wrestle heavily and eventually find a submission.

Almabayev by submission +300
"Alma bio by submission best price right now is plus 300... I'm hoping to get a slightly better price"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Daniel Levi picks Ode' Osbourne, expressing skepticism about Almabayev's level of competition. He notes that Almabayev struggled against aging UFC vets and has a low-output style. Levi believes Osbourne is more active and dangerous on the feet, with good length and submissions off his back. He is concerned about Osbourne's durability and tendency to play off his back, but thinks Osbourne's offensive skills can overcome Almabayev's wrestling.

No specific prop bet. Notes that sharp action is on Almabayev, but Levi disagrees.
"I'm gonna go ode Osborne here for the upset."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

James thinks the line is too wide favoring Almabayev. He notes Almabayev is a grappler but may not consolidate position for 15 minutes, while Osbourne is a good athlete with a decent sprawl. He also mentions the UFC debut trend often leads to underperformance. He picks Osbourne outright but says he wouldn't go crazy betting him.

"I do think this line is a bit wide... I'm going to pick Ode' Osbourne outright."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Almabayev is a solid Kazakhstani wrestler with a 17-2 record, showing good takedowns and reversals. Osbourne has cardio issues after the first round and is expected to drown under pressure. Unless Osbourne lands a Hail Mary knockout or submission early, Almabayev will finish him in the second or third round.

finish in round 2 or 3
"I think he's gonna falter break and eventually get finished by all mabiv and the second or third round of this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Paul agrees with Almabayev, citing Osbourne's struggles against grapplers and his poor takedown defense. He notes Almabayev's wrestling and cardio, and expects him to grind out a decision or get a submission. He is confident in the pick despite Almabayev's debut.

"I'm also going to take him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

The host picks Ode' Osbourne as an underdog, citing his UFC experience against legit competition versus Almabayev's padded resume. He notes Osbourne's southpaw stance, reach advantage, and improved grappling, but acknowledges the risk if Almabayev gets takedowns. He sees value at +148 and believes Osbourne can keep it standing and use his athleticism.

value at +148, line movement from +123 to +148
"I'm gonna side with the dog here okay I'm not gonna say it with an overwhelming amount of confidence but uh you know he's the underdog and I don't think that that's necessarily warranted especially when you're catching lines and …"
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Angelo picks Manel Kape because of his explosive striking and southpaw pressure, noting that Almabayev's takedown success (1/6 in his last fight) is a major concern. He believes Almabayev needs to threaten takedowns to neutralize Kape's striking, but doubts he can do so effectively. Angelo also mentions a potential live bet opportunity if Almabayev fails to secure early takedowns.

Live bet opportunity if Almabayev fails to secure early takedowns
"cop is going to have to be the pick here but it is possible that a su could win this fight the same boring ass way Manel lost to MV threaten the takedowns paralyze the Striking"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Big Brady picks Manel Kape, citing his improved takedown defense and striking advantage. He notes Asu Almabayev is stepping up in competition and likely cannot hold Kape down. He expects Kape to stuff takedowns and win by decision, but warns that Kape sometimes fights passively.

Kape by decision
"I got to go cop here I think cop is going to be able to stuff the takedowns... I'm going to pick cop to win this fight by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Connor picks Kape, emphasizing that Kape is a pressure counter-puncher who will make Almabayev work under pressure, unlike Nicolau who gave Almabayev free distance. He notes that Almabayev's approach against Nicolau was rudimentary and that Kape's speed and power will be a problem. Connor also mentions that Kape is much more talented than Nicolau and that Almabayev's level of competition hasn't been high.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I'm gonna pick top two. But yeah it could be one of those fights where we're literally just watching two people circle each other for two rounds until one of them hits the other one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Manel Kape

The host expects Kape to use his defensive grappling to shut down Almabayev's game. Once Almabayev decides to strike, that will be the beginning of the end, as Kape should land more effective strikes and possibly find a knockout, but ultimately win on the scorecards over 25 minutes.

"cap to utilizes defensive grappling to shut down that game of alv and once alv decides to strike with him that will be the beginning of the end as cap should be able to land more effective strikes might be able to find The Knockout but I ultimately think we'll …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Manel Kape

The Guru picks Manel Kape over Asu Almabayev. He believes Kape is the truth and will become champion. He praises Kape's recent performance against Bruno Silva and his takedown defense. He notes Kape's power advantage and finishing potential, predicting a TKO in the second or third round.

"I'm going with Manel cap... I'm actually going to go with Manel capap getting himself a TKO in the second or third round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Zane picks Kape because he is faster, more powerful, and more dynamic than Almabayev. He notes that Almabayev struggled against a similar counter-puncher in Nicolau, and Kape is a pressure counter-puncher who will maintain distance aggressively, forcing Almabayev to work under pressure. Zane acknowledges the risk of a boring decision loss but believes Kape's speed and power will find openings over five rounds.

Kape opened at -264, now -205; Almabayev opened +197, now +190. Zane says he wouldn't like to see it get any wider, implying the line is fair.
"But I'm still gonna pick mental cop. I think yeah rounds five rounds is a lot of time for cop to simply find a few openings."