UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025 · Middleweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales Next Fight
Age 34
Height 6' 0"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 32
Height 6' 5"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Dustin Stoltzfus
3.3 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
3.23 SApM
47.0% Str. Def.
2.08 TD Avg
37.0% TD Acc.
46.0% TD Def.
1.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Nursulton Ruziboev
2.59 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
2.89 SApM
48.0% Str. Def.
0.75 TD Avg
66.0% TD Acc.
33.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Dustin Stoltzfus
Moneyline
DraftKings +215
KO/TKO
BetWay +1000
Submission
BetWay +700
Decision
BetRivers +650
Nursulton Ruziboev
Moneyline
FanDuel -240
KO/TKO
BetRivers +100
Submission
BetRivers +700
Decision
FanDuel +700
Dustin Stoltzfus - Fight History
LOSS vs Kelvin Gastelum
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 1 57 of 117 48% 58 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 64 of 146 43% 69 of 151 1 of 6 16% 0 1 2:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 14 of 25 56% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 24 of 49 48% 25 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:47
2 Kelvin Gastelum 1 23 of 43 53% 23 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 20 of 45 44% 24 of 49 0 of 3 0% 0 1 1:13
3 Kelvin Gastelum 0 20 of 49 40% 20 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 20 of 52 38% 20 of 52 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 57 of 117 48% 30 of 81 16 of 24 11 of 12 56 of 116 1 of 1 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 64 of 146 43% 25 of 93 25 of 34 14 of 19 55 of 134 4 of 5 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 14 of 25 56% 4 of 14 6 of 7 4 of 4 14 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 24 of 49 48% 3 of 23 13 of 17 8 of 9 20 of 44 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Kelvin Gastelum 23 of 43 53% 14 of 30 6 of 9 3 of 4 23 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 20 of 45 44% 12 of 35 4 of 5 4 of 5 15 of 38 0 of 0 5 of 7
3 Kelvin Gastelum 20 of 49 40% 12 of 37 4 of 8 4 of 4 19 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 20 of 52 38% 10 of 35 8 of 12 2 of 5 20 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Angelo picks Kelvin Gastelum, calling him a great wrestler and striker with an unbelievable chin, but wasted talent due to poor work ethic. He says this is the easiest matchup Kelvin has had in five years, and he should win the striking exchanges and eat whatever comes back. He notes concern about Kelvin's takedown defense after the Sean Brady fight, but thinks he should be a better wrestler than Stoltzfus. He says the line should be wider but isn't because people can't trust Kelvin.

The line is honestly should be wider and it just isn't because people can't trust him.
"I do think that Kelvin is going to win here, so he's going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Big Brady picks Gastelum as the better striker who should keep the fight standing. He notes Stoltzfus is not on Gastelum's level and that a loss would be Gastelum's worst. He predicts a decision win but says he won't bet on it.

Decision win; will not bet
"Gastelum by decision for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Connor picks Gastelum hesitantly, noting that Stoltzfus is glacially slow and has been knocked out multiple times. However, he warns that Gastelum could have a Punahele Soriano-like performance where he fails to impose himself and gets outworked. Connor believes Gastelum's athleticism and scrambling will be key, but he is not confident.

"I'm taking Gastelum, but I can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Despite Gastelum's inconsistency, the host sees this as a fight he should win. He expects Gastelum to showcase his takedown defense and pressure with power striking, leading to a knockout in the second or third round.

win by knockout in second or third round
"Look for him to uh really do a good job with his takedown defense and really put the pressure on with the power striking. And I think that will eventually lead to a Calvin Gassam knockout either in the second …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum, believing he has a clear advantage in technical ability and power. He notes Stoltzfus has been knocked out multiple times and lacks the tools to drop or ragdoll Gastelum. He predicts a TKO win in the middle of the fight, possibly late first or second round, as Gastelum pressures and finishes a tiring Stoltzfus.

TKO win late first or second round
"Kelvin Gastelum getting this one done. ... This is a free TKO win late in the first round, in the second round at some point."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Zane picks Gastelum hesitantly, acknowledging that Stoltzfus could replicate his win over Punahele Soriano by pressuring and outworking Gastelum. He notes that Gastelum is still athletic and durable but has shown a tendency to not consider bad positions. Zane believes Gastelum's scrambling ability and power will be enough, but he can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight.

"I suppose I'm still gonna pick Kelvin Gastelum here. But I can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 21 of 37 56% 41 of 62 2 of 5 40% 2 0 5:11
Nursulton Ruziboev 0 35 of 68 51% 53 of 94 1 of 2 50% 0 2 3:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 5 of 13 38% 10 of 18 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:14
Nursulton Ruziboev 0 13 of 27 48% 21 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:24
2 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 2 of 3 66% 14 of 18 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:13
Nursulton Ruziboev 0 11 of 19 57% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:55
3 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 14 of 21 66% 17 of 26 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:44
Nursulton Ruziboev 0 11 of 22 50% 11 of 23 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Stoltzfus 21 of 37 56% 5 of 19 4 of 6 12 of 12 19 of 34 1 of 2 1 of 1
Nursulton Ruziboev 35 of 68 51% 24 of 53 8 of 11 3 of 4 24 of 52 1 of 1 10 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 5 of 13 38% 2 of 10 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nursulton Ruziboev 13 of 27 48% 8 of 19 2 of 4 3 of 4 11 of 25 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Dustin Stoltzfus 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1
Nursulton Ruziboev 11 of 19 57% 9 of 17 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 14
3 Dustin Stoltzfus 14 of 21 66% 2 of 7 2 of 4 10 of 10 13 of 19 1 of 2 0 of 0
Nursulton Ruziboev 11 of 22 50% 7 of 17 4 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Nursulton Ruziboev

Angelo picks Nursulton Ruziboev confidently, calling him an absolute beast. He highlights Ruziboev's massive 6'5" frame, wrestling and grappling prowess, and a good chin. He notes that Ruziboev's only UFC loss was to Buckley at 170 lbs, which is credible. Angelo expects Ruziboev to be patient, eat a few shots, and then pour it on later. He finds the -280 odds affordable and suggests the over might be sneaky good if a round line is available.

Angelo suggests the over on a round line might be sneaky good because Ruziboev has an incredible chin.
"Nerzleton's the pick. The minus 280 odds seem pretty affordable."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Big Brady picks Dustin Stoltzfus as a plus-240 underdog, citing Ruziboev's poor takedown defense and lack of volume. He believes Stoltzfus can take Ruziboev down and control him, making Ruziboev's power useless. He expects a decision win if Stoltzfus fights smart.

Stoltzfus by decision
"I'm taking Stoultz here, believe it or not. ... I think he has all the tools to to win this fight. So I'll say Solstus wins this fight by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

The host acknowledges Ruziboev's power and striking advantage but notes he has been grinded out by lesser grapplers. He believes Stoltzfus, with his BJJ black belt and wrestling improvements from Extreme Couture, can get Ruziboev to the ground and grind him out from top position, either winning on the scorecards or finding a submission.

Stoltzfus by decision or submission
"As long as Stoultzfus has really minded his P's and Q's in this fight and really sharpened his game with the help of extreme couture, he should be you able to utilize his BJJ black belt and wrestling improvements to …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Nursulton Ruziboev

The Guru picks Nursulton Ruziboev, calling him a dirty fighter who moves well and has a ton of experience. He thinks Ruziboev is better at middleweight with more power. He notes Stoltzfus has been styled on by opponents like Bruno Ferreira and doesn't see a path to victory. He predicts a TKO in the first or second round.

Ruziboev by TKO in round 1 or 2
"I'm gonna have to go with Nultton Marusv TKO in the first or second round."
KO (punches) R1 4:28 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · Nov 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 7 of 11 63% 13 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Marc-André Barriault 1 13 of 20 65% 23 of 32 0 of 0 --- 1 0 3:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 7 of 11 63% 13 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Marc-André Barriault 1 13 of 20 65% 23 of 32 0 of 0 --- 1 0 3:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Stoltzfus 7 of 11 63% 6 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 7 of 9 0 of 0
Marc-André Barriault 13 of 20 65% 11 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 5 7 of 10 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 7 of 11 63% 6 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 7 of 9 0 of 0
Marc-André Barriault 13 of 20 65% 11 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 5 7 of 10 4 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Angelo picks Marc-André Barriault, expecting him to weather an early storm from Dustin Stoltzfus and take over with volume. He notes Barriault has impressive striking volume (almost 6 sig strikes per minute) but is also hit a lot. He thinks Stoltzfus is dangerous early with power but has a questionable chin. He suggests betting the over if a 1.5 round line is available, as the fight could go long.

over 1.5 rounds if available
"Mark Andre is going to be the pick I think he can weather an early storm Dustin is dangerous and Mark was just knocked out but I think Joe pyer hits at like a completely different velocity than most other …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Big Brady picks Marc-André Barriault to win by decision. He likes Barriault's cardio, volume, and takedown defense. He thinks Stoltzfus's striking is not good and that Barriault will piece him up over 15 minutes. Brady expects Barriault to stuff takedowns and outwork Stoltzfus on the feet.

"give me bario bario to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Cody picks Marc-André Barriault, citing his pressure, power, and volume advantage over Stoltzfus. He notes that Stoltzfus relies on wrestling but has poor takedown success against strong grapplers, and Barriault's takedown defense is solid. He also mentions Stoltzfus's recent KO loss and potential psychological issues, and believes Barriault can finish him late or win a decision.

"I feel like bario should be one of them."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Daniel Vreeland picks Marc-André Barriault, citing his durability and tendency to get better as the fight progresses. He questions Dustin Stoltzfus's confidence and ability to handle adversity, noting that Barriault will expose any weaknesses in cardio or chin. Vreeland acknowledges Stoltzfus's skills but believes Barriault's toughness and pressure will prevail, though the price (-205) makes it a pass for betting.

"I'mma pick Mark Andre bario"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Lucrative James picks Marc-André Barriault, expecting him to dominate with pace and pressure in the clinch. He believes Stoltzfus will be competitive in round one but fade, and that Barriault will get a third-round finish or decision. He highlights Barriault's body shots and uppercuts in the clinch.

round three or decision
"I'm taking mab to survive T some type of storm to have a competitive round one but start to dominate round two and round three"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Barriault is coming back too quickly after a knockout, but if his durability holds up, he should put pace and pressure on Stoltzfus and finish him in the second or third round via TKO.

finish in second or third round via TKO
"I do believe if his durability hold up holds up here he should do a good enough job in terms of putting pace and pressure on Stoltzfus and finishing him in the second or third round via TKO."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Paul agrees with Cody, adding that Stoltzfus's recent facial fracture and nerve damage may affect his performance. He notes that Barriault's constant pressure and power should overwhelm Stoltzfus, and he sees a potential late stoppage. He also suggests live betting Barriault if he loses the first round.

"I think bario but I'm going to avoid like the split decision kind of angle... I do actually think it's possible that barrier gets him out of there."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

The Guru picks Marc-André Barriault over Dustin Stoltzfus, believing Barriault's pace and activity will be decisive. He notes Stoltzfus lacks finishing ability and cardio, while Barriault keeps a high output. He expects a decision win for Barriault.

decision
"I'm G to go against Dustin stsus shock twist I know and go of Mark Andre barel I just see this making it into the decision area"
LOSS vs Brunno Ferreira
KO (spinning back elbow) R1 4:51 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Jun 08, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brunno Ferreira 1 24 of 36 66% 27 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 18 of 40 45% 20 of 44 1 of 2 50% 2 0 1:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brunno Ferreira 1 24 of 36 66% 27 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 18 of 40 45% 20 of 44 1 of 2 50% 2 0 1:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brunno Ferreira 24 of 36 66% 16 of 27 6 of 7 2 of 2 22 of 33 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 18 of 40 45% 12 of 34 4 of 4 2 of 2 13 of 34 3 of 3 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brunno Ferreira 24 of 36 66% 16 of 27 6 of 7 2 of 2 22 of 33 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 18 of 40 45% 12 of 34 4 of 4 2 of 2 13 of 34 3 of 3 2 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Angelo picks Brunno Ferreira, citing his insane power against Dustin Stoltzfus's questionable chin. He notes that all of Ferreira's wins are finishes, and Stoltzfus has been knocked out before. He thinks it's a trap fight because it seems too easy, but he is falling into the trap. He predicts Ferreira wins inside the distance.

Brunno Ferreira wins inside the distance
"Bruno FAA inside the distance no less"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Big Brady picks Brunno Ferreira to win by first-round knockout. He highlights Ferreira's incredible one-punch power and vicious ground and pound. He notes that Stoltzfus is hitable with 48% striking defense and that Ferreira will follow up if he hurts him. He mentions a potential live bet on Stoltzfus if he survives the first round.

knockout round 1; live bet Stoltzfus if survives first round
"give me Bruno Ferrera to win this fight and win this fight by first round Nar knockout I think he Sparks Dustin stsf in the early going"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Cody picks Stoltzfus as a greasy underdog, noting that Ferreira is a first-round knockout artist with questionable cardio and wild striking. Stoltzfus has decent cardio, wrestling, and BJJ, and has been competitive against tough opponents. Cody believes if Stoltzfus can survive the first round, he can take over with his grappling and pressure. He sees value in the plus money and expects Stoltzfus to win by decision or late submission.

"I would think that there's a lot of pass here for stus but largely he's going to have to get out of that first round Bruno we know he's a tank engine for the first round but almost all of …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Daniel picks Stoltzfus as a live dog, believing Ferreira is too small for middleweight and that Stoltzfus can survive the early onslaught and take over after the seven-minute mark. He notes Ferreira's all-first-round finishes but criticizes his awkward movement and lack of in-between striking. He warns that Stoltzfus stands straight up and gets hit early, but if he can drag the fight out, his grappling and experience could pay off.

dog or pass
"I'm going to go Dustin Stoltzfus here now"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Jacob picks Brunno Ferreira, agreeing with Angelo. He notes that Stoltzfus has a suspect chin and Ferreira has big power. However, he warns that if the fight gets out of the first round, Ferreira might fade. He has Ferreira in a parlay but is not betting him heavily. He plans to live bet Stoltzfus if the first round ends without a finish.

Brunno Ferreira in a parlay; live bet on Dustin Stoltzfus if fight goes past round 1
"I'm picking Bruno I think he is going to find that shot but if this gets out of the first round I don't care how the first round looked Saturday live stream if we're streaming you better believe I'm putting …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Stoltzfus has a reach and height advantage, and his straight shots down the pipe should keep Ferreira at bay. Ferreira is a power puncher with a BJJ black belt, but Stoltzfus showed improved performance against Soriano. At +220, Stoltzfus is a good underdog pick to win by decision, possibly even a late finish.

"give me stfo and St Fus by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Paul sees this as a dogger pass situation. He acknowledges Ferreira's first-round knockout power but notes the lack of value on Ferreira by knockout props. He thinks Stoltzfus could win if he survives the early storm, but he's not confident enough to make a pick.

"it's a dogger pass type of situation as well Cody"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

The Guru picks Ferreira to 'smoke' Stoltzfus, saying Stoltzfus isn't the same level of danger on the feet and will be more scared in the fight. He notes Ferreira has KO power and that Stoltzfus's wins aren't impressive (e.g., Dwight Grant, Punahele Soriano). He expects a KO win for Ferreira.

KO win prediction
"Bruno fa is going to smoke him... there will be one person in this fight who is a lot more [__] himself than the other one and it's going to be Dustin stus so I think that's going to lead …"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 4:10 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 31 of 73 42% 33 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Punahele Soriano 1 64 of 123 52% 78 of 140 4 of 7 57% 1 0 2:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 22 of 47 46% 22 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Punahele Soriano 1 41 of 79 51% 43 of 82 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:29
2 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 9 of 26 34% 11 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Punahele Soriano 0 23 of 44 52% 35 of 58 3 of 3 100% 1 0 1:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Stoltzfus 31 of 73 42% 18 of 56 9 of 11 4 of 6 30 of 72 1 of 1 0 of 0
Punahele Soriano 64 of 123 52% 24 of 79 23 of 27 17 of 17 60 of 116 4 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 22 of 47 46% 13 of 35 7 of 9 2 of 3 21 of 46 1 of 1 0 of 0
Punahele Soriano 41 of 79 51% 15 of 51 17 of 19 9 of 9 37 of 72 4 of 7 0 of 0
2 Dustin Stoltzfus 9 of 26 34% 5 of 21 2 of 2 2 of 3 9 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Punahele Soriano 23 of 44 52% 9 of 28 6 of 8 8 of 8 23 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Big Brady picks Punahele Soriano to win by first-round knockout, citing Soriano's power and wrestling advantage. He notes Soriano has eight knockouts, seven in the first round, and that Stoltzfus is hittable. However, he expresses concern about Soriano's cardio if the fight gets extended, but believes Soriano will finish early.

first round knockout
"I'm going to say San catches them early if it does get extended it might get sketchy"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Cody picks Soriano, noting his power and wrestling base. He thinks Soriano's size advantage is not as big as usual and that Stoltzfus's chin is questionable. He mentions Soriano's cardio issues but believes he can finish early. He likes the Soriano round one KO prop at +335.

Punahele Soriano round one KO at +335
"what's Puna round one is that a number that I might be interested in it's plus 200 standby for further confirmation that that could get that could get a little bit of money for me I mean what's him by …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Lucrative James picks Punahele Soriano, stating that Dustin Stoltzfus is too hitable and has poor striking defense. He believes Soriano will knock him out, likely in round one. He notes that Soriano is a deserved favorite and could be even higher than the current line.

inside the distance, likely knockout in round one
"I think he's going to get cracked by punah heli Sano Sano is a decent fighter man"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Soriano has explosive power and typically finishes opponents early. Stoltzfus has a chin issue and was knocked out quickly in his last fight. Soriano is expected to crash the pocket and land big shots for a knockout. However, his gas tank is a concern if the fight goes past the first round. The minus 300 price is steep, so a round 1 prop or under 1.5 rounds is recommended.

round 1 prop, under 1.5 rounds recommended
"give me Sano minus 300 a little bit too much I'd probably hone in on that round one prop maybe the under one and a half"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Paul picks Soriano but is not super confident. He thinks Soriano's wrestling and power should be enough against Stoltzfus, who has no real X-factor. He notes Soriano's cardio issues but believes the lower level of competition will allow Soriano to look better. He also mentions Stoltzfus's COVID issues and questionable chin.

Punahele Soriano round one KO at +335 considered
"I think he wins the fight am I super confident no because I don't really like s all that much but I think he wins this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

The MMA Guru picks Punahele Soriano, citing his finishing ability and athleticism. He believes Dustin Stoltzfus lacks knockout power and is coming off a long layoff and a KO loss. He predicts Soriano will get a KO in the second round or late in the first.

KO in second round or late first
"I'm going to go with Punahele Soriano... I reckon he'll get a KO in the second round or late in the first."
KO (front kick and punches) R1 0:19 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · Sep 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Abusupiyan Magomedov 1 7 of 7 100% 7 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 1 7 of 7 100% 7 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Abusupiyan Magomedov 7 of 7 100% 6 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3 2 of 2 2 of 2
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 of 2 0% 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 7 of 7 100% 6 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3 2 of 2 2 of 2
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 of 2 0% 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 27, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Angelo leans toward Dustin Stoltzfus because of high-level experience, noting that Abusupiyan Magomedov has not fought this level of competition. He thinks Stoltzfus can use takedowns to control for a win, similar to his last fight. He calls it a toss-up and a very low confidence pick.

"i am gonna do a slight lean here for dustin this is a very low confidence pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Big Brady picks Abusupiyan Magomedov to win by decision. He notes that Magomedov has a significant striking advantage and good wrestling, while Stoltzfus has poor takedown defense and striking defense. The only concern is Magomedov's 20-month layoff, but he doesn't think Stoltzfus can exploit it. He expects Magomedov to control the fight wherever it goes.

"i'll say magametto by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Cody picks Dustin Stoltzfus as a dog, arguing that Abusupiyan Magomedov is overrated with a padded record, poor wrestling, and a suspect chin. He notes that Magomedov has been inactive and has injury issues, while Stoltzfus has better cardio and top control. Cody believes Stoltzfus can tire Magomedov out and win by pressure and grappling.

"I'll think i'll take the dog shot dustin stolfest but again i mean it's hard to get really excited and confident about it."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Daniel Levi picks Abusupiyan Magomedov but is not confident, noting that Magomedov's fights can be close and that Stoltzfus has been competitive in his losses. He acknowledges Magomedov's talent but questions the dominance at -260. He does not bet.

"I'm gonna pick a boost but I'm not as confident as you"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

The host is very confident in Magomedov, citing his superior striking, range control, and ability to mix in grappling. He dismisses Stoltzfus's only UFC win as unimpressive and believes Magomedov is outmatched everywhere. He predicts a finish inside the distance, possibly by submission or knockout.

Magomedov inside the distance (plus 120)
"Give me Abus inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Paul picks Abusupiyan Magomedov, but with low confidence. He thinks Magomedov's power and striking are better than Stoltzfus's, and that Stoltzfus's wrestling may not be good enough to take Magomedov down. Paul says he will not bet the -270 line and is not confident in the pick.

"I'm picking my uh abus magomedov in the spot... definitely not taking the shot."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

The MMA Guru picks Abusupiyan Magomedov over Dustin Stoltzfus, citing Magomedov's size, athleticism, and grappling ability. He believes Stoltzfus lacks the power or explosiveness to trouble Magomedov early, and if the fight goes past the first round, Magomedov will win. He predicts a second or third round TKO finish for Magomedov.

Magomedov wins by TKO in round 2 or 3
"i'm going to be going with abba sippy and magomedov it's a trustworthy pick"
WIN vs Dwight Grant
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 52 of 100 52% 54 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dwight Grant 0 49 of 112 43% 102 of 173 2 of 5 40% 0 0 4:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 23 of 35 65% 23 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dwight Grant 0 17 of 43 39% 17 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
2 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 14 of 28 50% 16 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dwight Grant 0 20 of 38 52% 31 of 52 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:51
3 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 15 of 37 40% 15 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dwight Grant 0 12 of 31 38% 54 of 78 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Stoltzfus 52 of 100 52% 35 of 79 7 of 9 10 of 12 50 of 97 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dwight Grant 49 of 112 43% 23 of 81 7 of 8 19 of 23 35 of 88 3 of 4 11 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 23 of 35 65% 19 of 30 1 of 1 3 of 4 21 of 32 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dwight Grant 17 of 43 39% 7 of 30 2 of 3 8 of 10 15 of 40 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Dustin Stoltzfus 14 of 28 50% 5 of 16 5 of 7 4 of 5 14 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dwight Grant 20 of 38 52% 12 of 29 4 of 4 4 of 5 10 of 21 1 of 1 9 of 16
3 Dustin Stoltzfus 15 of 37 40% 11 of 33 1 of 1 3 of 3 15 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dwight Grant 12 of 31 38% 4 of 22 1 of 1 7 of 8 10 of 27 0 of 0 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Dwight Grant

Angelo picks Dwight Grant as the overall better fighter, but is hesitant due to Grant's chin and cardio issues, and Stoltzfus's power. He notes both fighters have flaws and advises against betting due to too many traps.

advises not to bet on this fight
"i think dwight grant is the overall better fighter so he's going to be my pick but dustin's live for a stoppage here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dwight Grant

Big Brady picks Dwight Grant to win by decision, but with very low confidence. He notes that Grant is hit-or-miss and hard to predict. He thinks Grant's takedown defense and striking should be enough to outpoint Stoltzfus, who is a grappler but may not be able to get the fight down. He mentions Grant is moving up a weight class, which is a concern.

"i'm gonna take dwight grant um just stylistically it should be a winnable matchup for him"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Cody picks Stoltzfus as a slight underdog, citing his policy of fading Dwight Grant as a favorite. He notes Grant's low output, poor cardio, and tendency to lose close fights. He believes Stoltzfus can take Grant down and grind out a win, but he is not betting it.

"i'm so done with dwight grant there's no world that exists that i'm willing to pay minus 135"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Daniel Levi picks Dustin Stoltzfus for the upset, believing he is better across the board. He notes Grant's low output, age, and recent decline, while Stoltzfus's 0-3 UFC start was against grapplers, not strikers like Grant. He expects Stoltzfus to land takedowns and possibly get a submission, and considers betting him at underdog odds.

underdog bet; possible submission
"i'm gonna go dustin stoltzfus for the upset and i'm actually considering uh betting him at the underdog price"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Paul also picks Stoltzfus, arguing that Grant's power will be less effective at 185 and that Stoltzfus has better grappling. He notes that Grant has been taken down by lesser fighters and that Stoltzfus can exploit that. However, he calls it a dogger pass and won't bet it.

"it's dogger pass for me i'm gonna go soul foods the guy who actually fights at 185 pounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dwight Grant

The MMA Guru picks Dwight Grant over Dustin Stoltzfus, emphasizing Grant's power advantage and tougher division background. He criticizes Stoltzfus's lack of impressive wins, noting losses to Kyle Daukaus and Rodolfo Vieira, and believes Grant's size and reach will be decisive. He predicts a KO victory for Grant, as Stoltzfus has been finished in kickboxing and Grant's power exceeds that of Stoltzfus's previous opponents.

predicts KO
"i'm going with dwight grant in the middleweight division dustin stoltzfus other than looking like tom hardy um there's no real impressive part of his career whatsoever"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:58 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gerald Meerschaert 0 12 of 32 37% 51 of 72 4 of 4 100% 1 0 7:27
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 11 of 22 50% 19 of 30 1 of 1 100% 3 0 3:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gerald Meerschaert 0 5 of 11 45% 24 of 30 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:21
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 4 of 5 80% 7 of 8 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:03
2 Gerald Meerschaert 0 5 of 11 45% 24 of 30 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:56
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 4 of 5 80% 7 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Gerald Meerschaert 0 2 of 10 20% 3 of 12 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:10
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 3 of 12 25% 5 of 14 0 of 0 --- 2 0 1:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gerald Meerschaert 12 of 32 37% 8 of 28 2 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 24 0 of 1 5 of 7
Dustin Stoltzfus 11 of 22 50% 8 of 19 3 of 3 0 of 0 10 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gerald Meerschaert 5 of 11 45% 3 of 9 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 8 0 of 0 2 of 3
Dustin Stoltzfus 4 of 5 80% 3 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Gerald Meerschaert 5 of 11 45% 3 of 9 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 8 0 of 0 2 of 3
Dustin Stoltzfus 4 of 5 80% 3 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Gerald Meerschaert 2 of 10 20% 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 8 0 of 1 1 of 1
Dustin Stoltzfus 3 of 12 25% 2 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gerald Meerschaert vs. Dustin Stoltzfus

Round 1
Grappler faces grappler in the preliminary headliner, as grizzled veteran Meerschaert (33-14, 8-6 UFC) comes in with more submission wins (25) than his opponent Stoltzfus (13-3, 0-2 UFC) has in total professional appearances (16). Keeping a close eye on the proceedings will be referee Mark Smith, who observes the middleweights come forward without any interest in touching gloves. Meerschaert lands first with an overhand right, and Stoltzfus greets him in the middle and throws back with bad intentions. “GM3” delivers a clean kick straight to the liver, and when Stoltzfus absorbs it, Meerschaert crashes forward to hit a double that sets Stoltzfus on his backside. Seated against the fence, Stoltzfus holds on Meerschaert’s neck with a guillotine choke, but Meerschaert is not remotely concerned as he pulls his opponent from away from the fence and steps over to try to claim guard. Stoltzfus clings to a shoulder lock from his back, and again, Meerschaert does not register this as he slowly works his way to secure full mount. Stoltzfus manages to get Meerschaert’s legs back to settle for half guard, and Meerschaert mounts him until he gets pulled back once more. Stoltzfus explodes back to his feet, where he searches for a single. Stoltzfus finds himself in a precarious position as Meerschaert grabs hold of a combined armbar and kneebar, but Stoltzfus is able to wriggle both limbs out so that he can take top position. Meerschaert scrambles when Stoltzfus starts to score with elbows, and he gets to his knees but Stoltzfus is ready for him. As soon as Stoltzfus puts Meerschaert on his back, Meerschaert reintroduces himself with a speedy armbar. Stoltzfus fights out of danger, where he gets into side control with Meerschaert on his side. Stoltzfus ends up in half guard delivering some ground-and-pound right to the bell, concluding the close first frame in top position.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert

Round 2
The middleweights start throwing hands right out of the gate, when Meerschaert sneaking in a right hand and ducking back from a looping punch coming his way. They swing for the fences, and Meerschaert throws himself off-balance in the exchange. Stoltzfus throws a leg kick, and it gets caught, but he does not manage to do anything with it before setting it down. They both miss with high-intensity kicks, although Meerschaert is able to close the distance and deliver a knee square to the solar plexus. As they tie up, Stoltzfus pursues a takedown, and he grounds Meerschaert and falls into a guillotine choke setup. Stoltzfus pops his head out without much concern, and he stacks Meerschaert up to prohibit him from setting up anything with his legs. Meerschaert pushes off with his feet on the thighs, but Stoltzfus is able to leap back down in time before “GM3” can stand. This time, Meerschaert closes his guard, and Stoltzfus keeps his weight pressed tightly on his foe. Every so often, Stoltzfus sits up to throw a strike, and he comes back down before Meerschaert can do anything off his back. Meerschaert looks for an armlock as Stoltzfus again stacks him up, but there is nothing doing while Stoltzfus clings to him in half guard. When Stoltzfus lands a few strikes from above, Meerschaert bursts back up and gets to his knees. Stoltzfus attacks with a brabo choke when Meerschaert is in this position, and he puts his leg above Meerschaert’s neck to set up a modified version of a Peruvian necktie. “GM3” defends against it, only for Stoltzfus to jump back down when Meerschaert is on his back to land some ground strikes. He ends the second round doing damage with ground-and-pound.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Stoltzfus
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Stoltzfus
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Stoltzfus

Round 3
Meerschaert blocks an immediate high kick when Stoltzfus attacks to begin the final round, and he lays into Stoltzfus with an overhand right. Stoltzfus turns him around and hits the double, and Meerschaert defends again with a guillotine choke that is suddenly tight. Stoltzfus turns and twists while the arm is beneath his chin, but he calmly, methodically slips his neck out of the choke. Meerschaert powers back up, and he blocks a punch to go for one of his own. The two tired men throw bombs, and Meerschaert lands and absorbs a strike coming back at him. Stoltzfus drives through with a double, putting Meerschaert on his back and landing in side control. Meerschaert once more scrambles, letting Stoltzfus slip out the back door so he can wind up on top. Stoltzfus stays on his knees as Meerschaert tries to take his back, until Stoltzfus suddenly turns to attack a leglock. “GM3” spins through it to free his ankle, and he aims to take Stoltzfus’ back and manages to get a hook in.
From there, the Roufusport grappling coach instantly attacks the neck, sinking in a rear-naked choke as the arm slides beneath the chin. Stoltzfus tries to punch Meerschaert twice from behind his head to do something, anything. He promptly bails on punching, and taps out as he would be put to sleep seconds later.
This is a big comeback for “GM3,” who has notched three submission wins in a row over three tough opponents.

The Official Result
Gerald Meerschaert def. Dustin Stoltzfus R3 2:58 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Angelo picks Gerald Meerschaert because he is dangerous on the ground and has proven he can survive being stunned. He notes that Meerschaert's chin looked better in his last fight, but Stoltzfus has legitimate power. Angelo thinks Meerschaert will avoid the KO, get the fight to the ground, and win by submission. However, he acknowledges a Stoltzfus KO is very live.

"the pick is gerald to avoid the ko get it to the ground where he needs to be but a dustin ko is 100 percent live"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Big Brady picks Gerald Meerschaert, citing his superior experience, striking improvements, and dangerous ground game (94% finish rate, 76% submission rate). He is not sold on Stoltzfus, who was out-struck by Kyle Daukaus and slowed down against Rodolfo Vieira. He expects Meerschaert to get a late submission.

submission
"I'm gonna go gerald meerschaar to win by submission here late in the fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Cody is confident in Meerschaert, noting his experience, BJJ, and better striking and wrestling than Stoltzfus. He points out that Stoltzfus has poor takedown defense and has been submitted by lower-level opponents. Cody thinks Meerschaert can win wherever the fight goes, though he warns about Meerschaert's chin. He considers -235 a fair price.

"I go with jared mirshar's chin is not good enough to make him a top ticket play but I mean he's got legitimate wins in the ufc"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Daniel Levi leans toward Gerald Meerschaert but is not comfortable laying -230. He respects Meerschaert's submission record and veteran savvy, but notes that Meerschaert typically wins as an underdog. Levi thinks Stoltzfus is no slouch and has faced tough competition, but believes Meerschaert's experience and ground game will be the difference. He expects a competitive fight where Meerschaert eventually finds a submission or wins a decision, but advises passing the bet or taking the dog.

Meerschaert by submission; pass on betting
"I lean Mirsherd... but minus 225 is not a lean type price so it's dog or pass."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Jacob picks Dustin Stoltzfus, believing he will dominate the fight. He thinks Meerschaert's takedowns are sloppy and that Stoltzfus will defend them and win the striking exchanges. Jacob notes that Stoltzfus outstruck Rodolfo Vieira 2-1 before being submitted, and that Meerschaert's chin is questionable. He expects Stoltzfus to knock Meerschaert out.

"i think that dustin honestly dominates this fight these odds seem crazy to me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

The host leans towards Meerschaert inside the distance at even money. He notes that Meerschaert is hittable but has great submissions, and Stoltzfus is not UFC quality. However, he is not passionate due to Meerschaert's inconsistency.

Meerschaert inside the distance (+100)
"the inside the distance around even money is not too bad of a spot so uh that's the way i'd go mirsha inside the distance even money"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Paul agrees with Meerschaert, noting his submission record and cardio. He thinks Stoltzfus hasn't shown anything in the UFC to get excited about. Paul doesn't love laying -235 but sees Meerschaert as the clear better fighter.

"I mean gerald marshall in fairness too has what the most submission victories in at least middleweight history"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Dec 13, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

The MMA Guru calls this one of the locks of the card, picking Gerald Meerschaert to win by second-round guillotine choke. He notes Meerschaert has been looking great recently and Stoltzfus is one-dimensional. He thinks Stoltzfus cannot take Meerschaert down or submit him, and Meerschaert will land big shots and latch on a guillotine when Stoltzfus shoots for a takedown.

second round guillotine choke submission
"i think this is one of the locks of the card"
Nursulton Ruziboev - Fight History
SCHED vs Andrey Pulyaev
CANCEL vs Bryan Battle
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Nursulton Ruziboev

Angelo has been a big supporter of Ruziboev since his UFC debut and picks him here. He highlights Ruziboev's wrestling and grappling prowess, his size at 6'5, and his power, noting that Battle missed weight and is moving up to middleweight where his power may not carry. He believes Battle is not big enough for the weight class and that Ruziboev's chin and skills will prevail. He bet on Ruziboev at +150.

bet at +150
"I'm picking Nerzleton and I bet on Nerzleton at plus 150."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Nursulton Ruziboev

Big Brady picks Nursulton Ruziboev to win by second-round knockout. He notes Ruziboev has massive size, reach, and power, and that Battle has poor striking defense (44%). He thinks Battle will walk into big shots and could get knocked out. He also mentions Ruziboev's takedown defense is improving and Battle is not a wrestler at middleweight. He acknowledges Ruziboev is low volume but dangerous, and could win by damage-based decision or knockout.

Ruziboev by KO, round 2
"I'm going to take Ruseabova to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by second round knockout."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nursulton Ruziboev

The Guru picks Nursulton Ruziboev to win by TKO in the first two rounds. He believes Ruziboev's height and reach advantage will be problematic for Bryan Battle, who won't be able to use his physicality as he did against Randy Brown. The Guru notes that Ruziboev is a dirty fighter who will cheat to win, extending fingers and grabbing the cage. He also mentions Ruziboev's dynamic movement and ability to dart in and out, which will be difficult for Battle to handle.

TKO in first two rounds; Ruziboev wins by TKO
"I'm actually going to go with Ruseo getting this one done by TKO. ... I think he'll finish Brian Battle in the first two rounds."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 21 of 37 56% 41 of 62 2 of 5 40% 2 0 5:11
Nursulton Ruziboev 0 35 of 68 51% 53 of 94 1 of 2 50% 0 2 3:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 5 of 13 38% 10 of 18 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:14
Nursulton Ruziboev 0 13 of 27 48% 21 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:24
2 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 2 of 3 66% 14 of 18 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:13
Nursulton Ruziboev 0 11 of 19 57% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:55
3 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 14 of 21 66% 17 of 26 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:44
Nursulton Ruziboev 0 11 of 22 50% 11 of 23 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Stoltzfus 21 of 37 56% 5 of 19 4 of 6 12 of 12 19 of 34 1 of 2 1 of 1
Nursulton Ruziboev 35 of 68 51% 24 of 53 8 of 11 3 of 4 24 of 52 1 of 1 10 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 5 of 13 38% 2 of 10 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nursulton Ruziboev 13 of 27 48% 8 of 19 2 of 4 3 of 4 11 of 25 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Dustin Stoltzfus 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1
Nursulton Ruziboev 11 of 19 57% 9 of 17 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 14
3 Dustin Stoltzfus 14 of 21 66% 2 of 7 2 of 4 10 of 10 13 of 19 1 of 2 0 of 0
Nursulton Ruziboev 11 of 22 50% 7 of 17 4 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Nursulton Ruziboev

Angelo picks Nursulton Ruziboev confidently, calling him an absolute beast. He highlights Ruziboev's massive 6'5" frame, wrestling and grappling prowess, and a good chin. He notes that Ruziboev's only UFC loss was to Buckley at 170 lbs, which is credible. Angelo expects Ruziboev to be patient, eat a few shots, and then pour it on later. He finds the -280 odds affordable and suggests the over might be sneaky good if a round line is available.

Angelo suggests the over on a round line might be sneaky good because Ruziboev has an incredible chin.
"Nerzleton's the pick. The minus 280 odds seem pretty affordable."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Big Brady picks Dustin Stoltzfus as a plus-240 underdog, citing Ruziboev's poor takedown defense and lack of volume. He believes Stoltzfus can take Ruziboev down and control him, making Ruziboev's power useless. He expects a decision win if Stoltzfus fights smart.

Stoltzfus by decision
"I'm taking Stoultz here, believe it or not. ... I think he has all the tools to to win this fight. So I'll say Solstus wins this fight by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

The host acknowledges Ruziboev's power and striking advantage but notes he has been grinded out by lesser grapplers. He believes Stoltzfus, with his BJJ black belt and wrestling improvements from Extreme Couture, can get Ruziboev to the ground and grind him out from top position, either winning on the scorecards or finding a submission.

Stoltzfus by decision or submission
"As long as Stoultzfus has really minded his P's and Q's in this fight and really sharpened his game with the help of extreme couture, he should be you able to utilize his BJJ black belt and wrestling improvements to …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Nursulton Ruziboev

The Guru picks Nursulton Ruziboev, calling him a dirty fighter who moves well and has a ton of experience. He thinks Ruziboev is better at middleweight with more power. He notes Stoltzfus has been styled on by opponents like Bruno Ferreira and doesn't see a path to victory. He predicts a TKO in the first or second round.

Ruziboev by TKO in round 1 or 2
"I'm gonna have to go with Nultton Marusv TKO in the first or second round."
WIN vs Eric McConico
KO R2 0:33 · UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · Feb 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nursulton Ruziboev 2 20 of 42 47% 24 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Eric McConico 0 5 of 13 38% 6 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nursulton Ruziboev 0 13 of 24 54% 14 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Eric McConico 0 4 of 10 40% 5 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nursulton Ruziboev 2 7 of 18 38% 10 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Eric McConico 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nursulton Ruziboev 20 of 42 47% 15 of 35 4 of 6 1 of 1 13 of 30 6 of 11 1 of 1
Eric McConico 5 of 13 38% 1 of 5 1 of 3 3 of 5 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nursulton Ruziboev 13 of 24 54% 8 of 17 4 of 6 1 of 1 12 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Eric McConico 4 of 10 40% 0 of 3 1 of 2 3 of 5 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nursulton Ruziboev 7 of 18 38% 7 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 7 5 of 10 1 of 1
Eric McConico 1 of 3 33% 1 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Eric McConico vs. Nursulton Ruziboev

Round 1
Moving right along, two men that rarely leave matters to the judges will clash to start building momentum in the wide-open middleweight category. After a tough loss, Ruziboev (34-9-2, 2 NC; 2-1 UFC) is returning to 185 pounds, and he will be welcoming Tuff-N-Uff vet McConico (9-2-1, 0-0 UFC) to the world-famous Octagon. Referee Keith Peterson is on guard, ready to step in at a moment’s notice and bust up any nonsense. A fist bump precedes the action, and McConico opens up with a slapping low kick as “USA” chants loudly echo throughout the building. McConico parries a front kick fired at him and chambers a head kick in response, only to not let it go. As the fighters circle one another without much activity, the fans let the fighters have it with a swath of boos. Ruziboev tries to answer their calls for action with an overhand right, but he misses the mark by a wide margin. Ruziboev tries for another as a counter, and he skims the side of the head when McConico attempts a kick. McConico is out of range with most of his strikes, and Ruziboev reaches him at the end of a right hand right on the pectorals. Ruziboev jams a front kick to the liver, and he is answered with a low kick. Ruziboev surges forward with a right hand, and he shakes his head when McConico fails on a counter. Ruziboev blitzes after another lull in action, and a second flurry gets his hands on his opponent. McConico rips a kick to the ribs, and “Black” wraps him up and pushes him to the fencing. Dirty boxing from the newcomer allows him to break out of the tie-up, and he has a head kick slap off the raised guard to little impact. The crowd is not impressed, even as Ruziboev marches forward and zings a few straight punches down the middle. A low kick from McConico is answered by a one-two, and this exchange happens a second time. The Uzbekistan ends the round with a body kick and a right hand.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ruziboev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Ruziboev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ruziboev

Round 2
The fighters clap hands to get going, and McConico is energized as he puts a pair of punches on the chin to reintroduce himself. Ruziboev fires right back, and this slugfest is exactly where McConico does not want to be. The taller, longer man unloads and nails McConico with a strong combination of punches, causing McConico to wobble and stumble his way to the fence. McConico falls to his face and works his way up under fire.
Ruziboev chases, swinging with all his might, allowing the newcomer to get back to his feet so he can blast him once more with several relentless right hands. As McConico hits the deck a second time, Peterson has seen enough, with McConico turning to his side and in a bad, bad way.
The victor walks off screaming, letting out all of his remaining emotions after registering the knockout. That marks 33 finishes in the 35 wins for the Uzbekistan native, who at 6-foot-5 will be a tough matchup for a lot of fighters in the weight class. To make matters more interesting, Ruziboev informs commentator Michael Bisping that he is willing to fight at either 77 or 84 kgs, meaning 170 pounds or 185 pounds.

The Official Result
Nursulton Ruziboev def. Eric McConico R2 0:33 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Nursulton Ruziboev

Angelo is confident in Nursulton Ruziboev, noting he is a big middleweight with wrestling and power, and that this weight class suits him better than welterweight. He thinks McConico is not dangerous enough on the feet to pose a real problem, and expects Ruziboev's wrestling to be a big advantage. He assumes both fighters are in shape despite short notice.

"I think Nursulton has another showcase win here... these odds minus 300 assuming everybody's in shape make a ton of sense."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 17, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Nursulton Ruziboev

Big Brady picks Nursulton Ruziboev but hates the -300 price tag, calling it unwarranted. He notes that Ruziboev hasn't proven much in the UFC, with wins via eye poke and one-punch knockout, and was taken down by Warlley Alves for three rounds. However, he thinks Ruziboev's size, length, and power will be too much for Eric McConico, who has durability issues and is coming in on short notice. He predicts a first-round knockout.

by first round knockout
"I got to go rabo again I hate the minus 300 don't lay minus 300 on this dude but I'm going to pick rabo to win this fight by first round knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Eric McConico

The host notes McConico is on short notice but in shape from a recent fight. He expects McConico to use a game plan similar to Buckley's, keeping Ruziboev on his back and out of danger, winning on the scorecards.

"look for makano to try to utilize the same game plan as walking Buckley keeping ruzi boov on his back keeping him out of danger and eventually winning this fight on the scorecards"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Nursulton Ruziboev

The Guru picks Ruziboev based on 'light man skill' and experience fighting at welterweight, implying he had to be good to win there. He criticizes McConico's late-career signing at age 34, lack of finishing potential, and weak resume. He expects Ruziboev to piece him up and finish him.

"I'm going with rabo but there you go there's a story line I doubted him if he pulls off the upset good for him"
LOSS vs Joaquin Buckley
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–26, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joaquin Buckley 1 86 of 156 55% 113 of 187 4 of 4 100% 0 1 5:30
Nursulton Ruziboev 0 31 of 72 43% 43 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joaquin Buckley 0 8 of 23 34% 8 of 23 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:16
Nursulton Ruziboev 0 7 of 22 31% 11 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Joaquin Buckley 0 14 of 27 51% 23 of 37 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:42
Nursulton Ruziboev 0 8 of 21 38% 15 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Joaquin Buckley 1 64 of 106 60% 82 of 127 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:32
Nursulton Ruziboev 0 16 of 29 55% 17 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joaquin Buckley 86 of 156 55% 70 of 137 14 of 17 2 of 2 15 of 50 0 of 0 71 of 106
Nursulton Ruziboev 31 of 72 43% 17 of 46 13 of 24 1 of 2 23 of 59 1 of 1 7 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joaquin Buckley 8 of 23 34% 5 of 18 2 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 9
Nursulton Ruziboev 7 of 22 31% 4 of 15 3 of 6 0 of 1 7 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Joaquin Buckley 14 of 27 51% 8 of 21 5 of 5 1 of 1 7 of 18 0 of 0 7 of 9
Nursulton Ruziboev 8 of 21 38% 3 of 13 5 of 8 0 of 0 8 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Joaquin Buckley 64 of 106 60% 57 of 98 7 of 8 0 of 0 4 of 18 0 of 0 60 of 88
Nursulton Ruziboev 16 of 29 55% 10 of 18 5 of 10 1 of 1 8 of 16 1 of 1 7 of 12
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Joaquin Buckley vs. Nursulton Ruziboev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buckley (-166), Ruziboev (+140)

Round 1
Ever since moving down to 170 pounds, the 5-foot-8 kickfighter Buckley (18-6, 8-4 UFC) has found a new lease on life, even if he tries to move up a more logjammed division with contenders waiting ages for title shots these days. Looking to crash that party will be Uzbekistan finisher Ruziboev (34-8-2, 2 NC; 2-0 UFC), who has shifted back and forth from welterweight and middleweight over the years. Knowing that one of these men may need smelling salts in the foreseeable future, referee Keith Peterson is ultra-prepped and ready for the nonsense-free proceedings. There is a stern staredown between the two that ultimately results in no touch of gloves. Buckley crowds his way forward to begin, and he backs away from a front kick that is aimed his direction. Buckley shifts to the left and right while trying to find his way in, and Ruziboev is warned for outstretched fingers. Ruziboev reaches with a right hand, and Buckley comes at him swinging. Ruziboev ducks away from a huge overhand left, and he tries to line up straight shots to intercept the shorter man coming in. Ruziboev misses another front kick, and he lets Buckley fly past him when Buckley is winging shots. The crowd starts chanting “USA,” and Buckley absorbs this energy and surges forward, where he takes a flush flying knee to the body and tackles Ruziboev to the ground. Buckley is wrapped up when landing on top, with Ruziboev hooking his arms around Buckley’s to hope for a stalemate that results in a standup. Buckley is pushed away, and he swings when Ruziboev fights back to his feet. Ruziboev returns fire and clips him, and Buckley retreats only to sprint forward and smash straight into Ruziboev’s chest to put him flat on his back. Buckley decides after landing a few strikes to stand back up, and Ruziboev follows him up. Buckley hops away from a front kick and scores a low kick, and his jabs as well out of range. Buckley keeps his guard up to block a high kick, and his blitz of a few looping strikes come up short. Buckley raises his hand in the air as he circles away, and he tells Ruziboev to fight him. Ruziboev motions to come get him, and Buckley answers as he leaps forward throwing wild hooks. Buckley spins with a back kick that is brushed off, and he walks off disappointed. Ruziboev runs at him and jumps with a flying knee, but Buckley is elsewhere as the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley

Round 2
Buckley appears to have a fire lit in his belly as he starts the second round, as he races forward and releases a big kick early. Ruziboev retreats and measures Buckley with a right hand. Buckley resets and blazes forward, ripping Ruziboev off of his feet and tossing him down to the floor like a sack of potatoes. Ruziboev uses his offensive guard to kick Buckley off of him, and Buckley allows him to get back up. Ruziboev gets off a right hand that partially connects, and Buckley closes in and lands as body shot. Ruziboev trots forward with his arms outstretched, and he walks into a front kick to the sternum. Buckley chases Ruziboev around and shrugs off a right hand so he can unload with body shots. Buckley takes a flush knee and responds with a right hook that lands cleanly. Buckley is struck with another knee on the way in, and is still struggling to find the range. A side kick from “New Mansa” finds its target, and his guard is high enough to block a straight right hand from his foe. Ruziboev splits the guard with a front kick and hops away from winging hooks that whiz past him. Buckley starts pointing around the cage, and he tries to use this misdirection to charge in and crack his foe. He gets off a big right hand and wrenches Ruziboev down to the mat, slamming him down and landing in side control. Buckley puts a knee on the belly, and Ruziboev pulls him back to guard. Buckley rains down punches, and Ruziboev answers with an armbar that Buckley completely ignores. The round ends, Buckley helps his foe up and they embrace.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley

Round 3
Hands are clapped together to begin the final round. They use alternating jabs to still look for their respective distances, and Buckley leaps forward and pulls back before reaching the target. Buckley has a right hand glance off the target, and Ruziboev replies with a few body shots. Buckley eats a left hand and laughs it off so he can blast Ruziboev in the face with bombs. Buckley knocks Ruziboev off his feet down to his seat, where he moves to top position, and Ruziboev flails frantically with his legs and lands a few upkicks to get Buckley away. Buckley holds on the neck when Ruziboev sits up, and Ruziboev escapes and tries to land some shots. Buckley chases after him and connects with some punishing blows, and Ruziboev goes down again. Buckley leaps on top and begins an onslaught of ground-and-pound when he gets to mount, and he hammers Ruziboev with punches as Ruziboev’s face has been bloodied up. Ruziboev struggles to hang on and grabs the glove to protect himself, so Buckley frames off with his elbow and clobbers him with additional elbows. Ruziboev survives the assault somehow and sweeps the shorter man, and he ignores a triangle setup to move into the half guard so he can blast Buckley with his own offense. Buckley twists and turns, and he explodes to turn Ruziboev over and put him down again. Buckley sits up and jackhammers Ruziboev with right hands, and Peterson is watching closely as Ruziboev’s eye is busted up. Buckley unleashes with everything he has, and Ruziboev responds with several illegal upkicks that land on the spine and the back of the head. Peterson calls time to acknowledge the foul, and Buckley asks for them to be stood up. Ruziboev tries to offer a glove touch, and Buckley shrugs him off. Ruziboev loads up on a head kick, and Buckley walks him down and slugs him in the chops right to the final horn. This matchup somehow has gone the distance, although it is no question who will get their hand raised.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Buckley (30-26 Buckley)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (30-27 Buckley)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Buckley (30-26 Buckley)

The Official Result
Joaquin Buckley def. Nursulton Ruziboev via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-26, 29-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 5, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Nursulton Ruziboev

Angelo picks Nursulton Ruziboev, citing his wrestling and grappling ability, as well as his power in his hands. He notes Ruziboev is a much larger fighter and a capable striker, but worries he might abandon his grappling for striking. He acknowledges Joaquin Buckley's speed, power, and improved movement, but believes Ruziboev's wrestling could be the difference.

"I am still going to pick nelton rabv here and that's because nelton rabv I think can be the real deal"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nursulton Ruziboev

Big Brady picks Nursulton Ruziboev to knock out Joaquin Buckley in the first round, calling it a shot in the dark. He notes that Buckley has been knocked out multiple times (by Holland, Curtis, etc.) and Ruziboev has a ton of power. However, he admits he still doesn't know much about Ruziboev, who has over 40 fights but mostly first-round finishes. He thinks Ruziboev's power might be the difference, and if he beats Buckley, he will gain hype.

"I'm going to take the upset we here with ROV really really a shot in the dark cuz again just still not don't know what to think of this guy"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Cody picks Buckley, noting that Ruziboev has a poor record at 170 lbs (7 of 8 losses at that weight) and tends to gas after the first round. He highlights Buckley's speed, cardio advantage, and ability to explode with big shots. Cody believes Buckley can survive an early onslaught and take over in later rounds, especially with the crowd behind him in St. Louis. He also notes that Ruziboev's takedown defense is suspect and Buckley could mix in wrestling.

"I got Buckley terms of Buckley's own offensive wrestling he's actually a decent not great decent wrestler I think he could force the issue on RAB boov"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 9, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Daniel Vreeland picks Joaquin Buckley, noting that Buckley has experience against larger opponents and that Ruziboev's ceiling is likely top 30. He believes Buckley can extend the fight and find his range, and that Ruziboev struggles when he doesn't get an early finish. He also mentions the risk of a letdown spot for Buckley after a big win.

"I do think that he's gonna be able to shine in the co-main event especially if he can extend this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

The host picks Buckley to win by knockout in rounds 2 or 3, citing his experience and fight IQ against a less tested opponent. He expects Buckley to mix in grappling and wear down Ruziboev before landing a big shot. He notes Ruziboev's size and reach but questions his weight cut and competition level. The pick is confident for the finish, though he acknowledges unknowns about Ruziboev.

Buckley knockout round 2 or 3
"I'm going to go Buckley knockout probably round two or round three"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Nursulton Ruziboev

Paul leans towards Ruziboev but is hesitant, citing his size and power advantage. He notes that Ruziboev has a 10-fight winning streak with all finishes in the first round, but his record at 170 is poor. Paul worries about the weight cut and cardio, as Ruziboev has not gone past the first round in years. He suggests waiting for weigh-ins to see how Ruziboev looks at 170. Paul acknowledges Buckley's improvements but thinks Ruziboev could be a 'merer' if he lands early.

"I still think I like ROV I'm going to wait until the weigh ends though"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Nursulton Ruziboev

The MMA Guru picks Nursulton Ruziboev over Joaquin Buckley, noting Ruziboev's reach and rangy striking style. He believes Buckley's boxing-heavy approach will be neutralized by Ruziboev's length and uppercuts, and that Ruziboev's willingness to cheat (eye pokes) could be an advantage. He predicts a TKO win via uppercut as Buckley comes in.

TKO, uppercut
"I'm gonna go with nasam Rusev... TKO going to say uppercut as Buckley comes in."
TKO (punches) R1 3:18 · UFC on ESPN: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · Mar 30, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nursulton Ruziboev 1 12 of 32 37% 12 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Sedriques Dumas 0 1 of 16 6% 1 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nursulton Ruziboev 1 12 of 32 37% 12 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Sedriques Dumas 0 1 of 16 6% 1 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nursulton Ruziboev 12 of 32 37% 11 of 30 1 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 25 0 of 0 1 of 7
Sedriques Dumas 1 of 16 6% 1 of 13 0 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nursulton Ruziboev 12 of 32 37% 11 of 30 1 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 25 0 of 0 1 of 7
Sedriques Dumas 1 of 16 6% 1 of 13 0 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sedriques Dumas vs. Nursulton Ruziboev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ruziboev (-265), Dumas (+215)

Round 1
Ruziboev and Dumas go to work under the supervision of referee “Shaolin” Ribeiro. Both middleweights are in orthodox stance, and Dumas comes forward with kick feints and a long jab. Ruziboev isn’t throwing anything back, but once he has the read, he nails Dumas with a righty counter over the jab. Dumas backs off, and when they come together again, Ruziboev meets him with an uppercut up the middle. Ruziboev tries a lead left hook that glances, and backs away from a Dumas front kick. Dumas continues to match forward, but he backs away from the ensuing collision pawing at his right eye. He looks at the referee, but Ribeiro either didn’t see a foul, or saw a legal strike.
Ruziboev gives no quarter, coming forward and laying into Dumas with a string of punches. Dumas wilts under the barrage, covering up as Ruziboev pours on the punishment. Ribeiro interposes himself for the stoppage, but this is going to be one heavily viewed replay.
The replay, when it comes, shows Ruziboev appearing to drag his open fingers across Dumas’ face during one of the final exchanges. We will see if that leads to any sort of appeal in the coming days.

The Official Result
Nursolton Ruziboev def. Sedriques Dumas R1 3:18 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Nursulton Ruziboev

Angelo is very confident in Nursulton Ruziboev, calling him a 'grappling beast' who will ragdoll Sedriques Dumas. He criticizes Dumas as 'kind of terrible' and notes that even Cody Brundage took him down. He believes Ruziboev should be the biggest favorite on the card and recommends betting now before the line moves.

"nelton rabv is a Savage Beast who is going to win this fight I'm very very confident in him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Nursulton Ruziboev

Big Brady picks Nursulton Ruziboev to win by first-round submission. He highlights Ruziboev's size (6'5" at middleweight), power, and dangerous submission game, noting he has many rear-naked choke wins. He criticizes Dumas for poor performances, getting hurt by lesser opponents, and questionable cardio. Brady believes Ruziboev is a level above everywhere and will submit Dumas when the fight hits the mat.

"give me ntan rizab to win this fight I think he wins it by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nursulton Ruziboev

Cody acknowledges Ruziboev's first-round finishing ability but worries about his cardio if the fight goes past the first. He notes Dumas's poor life choices and questionable cardio but thinks Ruziboev's durability and skill advantage should carry him, though the price (-260) is unappealing.

"rusol is the play"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nursulton Ruziboev

Daniel Vreeland picks Nursulton Ruziboev, citing his massive experience (over 40 fights) and finishing ability. He notes Dumas is still green, has been submitted before (by Josh Fremd), and may have distractions outside the cage. He thinks Ruziboev will expose Dumas on the ground, though he doesn't advocate betting at -250.

"I have a feeling that nuron is gonna expose him on the ground here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 26, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Nursulton Ruziboev

Ruziboev has a height advantage and aggressive striking, but Dumas has a 3-inch reach advantage. Ruziboev's experience (42 fights) and recent camp at Marquez MMA in Philly are positives. Dumas is still unproven; his wins came against Cody Brundage (who jumped guillotine) and Abdul Razak Alhassan (coming off long layoff). Ruziboev's aggressiveness should be the difference, but he must avoid leaving his neck open for a choke. Prediction: Ruziboev inside the distance.

Ruziboev inside the distance; Dumas by decision as a sprinkle
"I'm going to lean with ruzi B Dumas absolutely alive Underdog"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nursulton Ruziboev

Paul is high on Ruziboev, calling him a 'monster' and noting his size, power, and training in Philly. He contrasts Ruziboev's focused Instagram with Dumas's partying and legal issues, believing Ruziboev will starch him early.

"I'm picking rabo of to win the fight here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nursulton Ruziboev

The host picks Nursulton Ruziboev, criticizing Sedriques Dumas' wins as coming against opponents with low fight IQ. He believes Ruziboev is more experienced and has a higher fight IQ. He predicts Ruziboev will win, possibly by using his grappling and striking advantage.

"I'm going to go nult Rusev via probably having above a 50 IQ I think it's all it's going to take here"
KO (punches) R1 1:17 · UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Jul 01, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nursulton Ruziboev 0 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brunno Ferreira 0 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nursulton Ruziboev 0 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brunno Ferreira 0 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nursulton Ruziboev 3 of 5 60% 0 of 0 0 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brunno Ferreira 6 of 9 66% 5 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nursulton Ruziboev 3 of 5 60% 0 of 0 0 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brunno Ferreira 6 of 9 66% 5 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 25, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Angelo picks Brunno Ferreira but with low confidence. He acknowledges Ferreira's insane power but questions his takedown defense against a wrestling specialist like Ruziboev. He notes that Ruziboev is a live underdog and may flip his pick if the line moves. He advises avoiding betting on this fight entirely.

may bet Ruziboev if underdog line grows
"Brunno will still be the pick but like by this much because he does have insane power"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Big Brady picks Brunno Ferreira to win by first-round knockout. He is more impressed with Ferreira's Contender Series win and his knockout of Gregory Rodriguez than any of Ruziboev's opponents. He notes Ruziboev has poor takedown defense and Ferreira has solid wrestling and devastating ground and pound. He acknowledges Ruziboev could be legit but feels Ferreira is the safer pick.

first round knockout
"I'm gonna say Ferreira does knock him out though in the very first round I'll say he takes him down gets on top and pounds him out can be Bruno Ferreira by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nursulton Ruziboev

Cody sees Ruziboev as a greasy underdog with plus money. He notes Ruziboev has 44 pro fights, has improved since moving to Daniel Gracie's team, and has a size and grappling advantage. Ferreira has big power but questionable cardio and grappling. Cody thinks Ruziboev can win by wrestling and cardio, though he acknowledges the unknown level of competition.

"the plus money in Roosevelt looks pretty okay"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 29, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Daniel leans Ferreira but with low confidence due to the late opponent change and Ruziboev's length and experience. He notes Ferreira's explosive power and first-round finishing ability, but worries about closing distance against a 6'4" fighter with 20 submission wins. He acknowledges Ruziboev's poor cardio and decision record (2-6), but sees Ferreira's path to victory via takedowns or power shots. He is less confident than in the original matchup against Razak.

"I'm gonna lean for era but not as confident as I was in his initial matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Paul picks Ferreira but is not confident. He notes Ferreira's power and KO of Gregory Rodrigues, but questions his cardio and grappling. Ruziboev is an unknown with a strange record. Paul thinks Ferreira's power gives him a chance, but he doesn't feel great about the pick.

"I'll pick Ferreira but mine is 200. um I really don't think there's enough like meat on the bone there that I feel confident in that selection"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

The Guru picks Brunno Ferreira, noting his power and strength advantage. He criticizes Ruziboev's striking as sloppy and open to getting chinned, and believes Ferreira will stuff takedowns and land a big shot for a KO. He also notes Ruziboev's submission wins come off his back, but Ferreira won't shoot takedowns.

KO
"I'm gonna go with Bruno for hair... he lands that big shot and puts away rizzobov by KR"
Expert Picks (4)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Nursulton Ruziboev

Angelo picks Nursulton Ruziboev confidently, calling him an absolute beast. He highlights Ruziboev's massive 6'5" frame, wrestling and grappling prowess, and a good chin. He notes that Ruziboev's only UFC loss was to Buckley at 170 lbs, which is credible. Angelo expects Ruziboev to be patient, eat a few shots, and then pour it on later. He finds the -280 odds affordable and suggests the over might be sneaky good if a round line is available.

Angelo suggests the over on a round line might be sneaky good because Ruziboev has an incredible chin.
"Nerzleton's the pick. The minus 280 odds seem pretty affordable."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Big Brady picks Dustin Stoltzfus as a plus-240 underdog, citing Ruziboev's poor takedown defense and lack of volume. He believes Stoltzfus can take Ruziboev down and control him, making Ruziboev's power useless. He expects a decision win if Stoltzfus fights smart.

Stoltzfus by decision
"I'm taking Stoultz here, believe it or not. ... I think he has all the tools to to win this fight. So I'll say Solstus wins this fight by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

The host acknowledges Ruziboev's power and striking advantage but notes he has been grinded out by lesser grapplers. He believes Stoltzfus, with his BJJ black belt and wrestling improvements from Extreme Couture, can get Ruziboev to the ground and grind him out from top position, either winning on the scorecards or finding a submission.

Stoltzfus by decision or submission
"As long as Stoultzfus has really minded his P's and Q's in this fight and really sharpened his game with the help of extreme couture, he should be you able to utilize his BJJ black belt and wrestling improvements to get Rusei Bov to the ground."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Nursulton Ruziboev

The Guru picks Nursulton Ruziboev, calling him a dirty fighter who moves well and has a ton of experience. He thinks Ruziboev is better at middleweight with more power. He notes Stoltzfus has been styled on by opponents like Bruno Ferreira and doesn't see a path to victory. He predicts a TKO in the first or second round.

Ruziboev by TKO in round 1 or 2
"I'm gonna have to go with Nultton Marusv TKO in the first or second round."
Comments (1)
BR
brian 9 months, 3 weeks ago

Stoltzfus got his nose broken. Also complained about grabbing of the gloves. Ruziboev is a kimura specialist according to the commentry he pulled it as defense against the takedown. Generally he goes to the well and but still seems green in parts. Like Bisping is saying Ruziboev footwork is so and so. Nice headkick from Ruz, plus an uppercut which his camp is known for training. Stoltzfus dropped him in the first. Tried a darce, gully, leg lock. Ruziboev fenced grabbed. Stoltz looks jacked for 33.