UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025 · Featherweight · Completed
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Age 36
Height 6' 1"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 29
Height 5' 10"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Julian Erosa
6.18 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
6.31 SApM
48.0% Str. Def.
1.73 TD Avg
43.0% TD Acc.
61.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Melquizael Costa
4.38 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
2.97 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
2.0 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
58.0% TD Def.
1.1 Sub. Avg
Julian Erosa
Moneyline
Caesars +140
KO/TKO
FanDuel +750
Submission
FanDuel +430
Decision
BetRivers +575
Melquizael Costa
Moneyline
BetWay -160
KO/TKO
BetRivers +215
Submission
FanDuel +800
Decision
DraftKings +350
Julian Erosa - Fight History
LOSS vs Lerryan Douglas
KO R1 3:33 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Mar 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Erosa 0 17 of 46 36% 18 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Lerryan Douglas 2 29 of 48 60% 30 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Erosa 0 17 of 46 36% 18 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Lerryan Douglas 2 29 of 48 60% 30 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Erosa 17 of 46 36% 13 of 40 2 of 2 2 of 4 16 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lerryan Douglas 29 of 48 60% 18 of 37 3 of 3 8 of 8 25 of 39 2 of 6 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Erosa 17 of 46 36% 13 of 40 2 of 2 2 of 4 16 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lerryan Douglas 29 of 48 60% 18 of 37 3 of 3 8 of 8 25 of 39 2 of 6 2 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Lerryan Douglas

Angelo picks Lando Vannata (Lerryan Douglas) as the more skilled fighter, cleaner and faster, and less hittable than Julian Erosa. He thinks Erosa's pressure could be a factor but believes Vannata's technique will prevail. He notes the odds are appropriate.

"I think Lando's the more skilled fighter. He's cleaner, he's faster, far less hittable than the borderline human punching bag in Julian Erosa."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Lerryan Douglas

Big Brady picks Lerryan Douglas to win by second-round knockout. He praises Douglas's power, calling him one of the hardest hitters in the featherweight division. He criticizes Julian Erosa's chin, noting he has been knocked out seven times and has poor striking defense. He expects a violent fight and believes Douglas will connect and knock Erosa out brutally.

Douglas by KO round 2
"Give me Lariano Douglas to win this fight and win it by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Lerryan Douglas

Cody favors Douglas to land a knockout due to Erosa's questionable chin and low hands. He acknowledges Erosa's path to victory via submission but thinks Douglas's power will prevail.

"Douglas probably just does catch him at some point."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Lerryan Douglas

Connor picks Douglas, expecting a flattening. He notes that Erosa is losing a step and looks slow and cumbersome, as seen in the Elkins and Costa fights. Douglas is a fast power puncher who sells out, and if he catches Erosa early, he can finish him. However, he acknowledges that if Erosa survives the first round, he tends to win.

Odds: Douglas opened -350, now -300; Erosa opened +285, now +250. Connor says odds are too wide.
"I think I'm going to take the flattening. I'm going to pick Douglas."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Lerryan Douglas

Daniel expects Douglas to knock out Erosa, citing Erosa's weak chin and Douglas's left hook power. He warns that if Douglas doesn't finish early, Erosa could make it competitive, but ultimately picks Douglas by KO.

"I'm going to pick Lerone Douglas to come out here and knock out Julian Erosa with a left hook."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Mar 28, 2026 (fight day)
Julian Erosa

The host sees value on Erosa as an underdog, believing the odds are too wide. Erosa is tough, has great cardio, and applies relentless pressure, which could trouble debutant Douglas. However, Erosa's recent poor fight IQ (losing to a one-legged opponent) gives pause. The host prefers the fight spread (+3.5) on Erosa rather than the moneyline, as he expects a competitive fight.

Likes Erosa +3.5 fight spread and over 1.5 rounds.
"All the value lies on Erosa this weekend. You'd be crazy to bet Douglas."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Lerryan Douglas

The host thinks Douglas will find a knockout due to his power and Erosa's defensive flaws, but he is cautious because Erosa's chin held up in his last fight. He expects Douglas to expose Erosa's awkward striking exits but acknowledges the risk if Erosa's durability holds. He suggests the knockout prop might be the play.

knockout
"I think he finds the knockout. I think he exposes the flaws in the uh the defensive striking game of Julian Rosa... I'm going to go Douglas by knockout, but I'm just a little bit queasy about that type of …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Paul is torn, calling it dog or pass. He considers Erosa's value but doesn't commit, suggesting live betting Erosa after the first round.

"I'm going to say dog or pass for the purposes of this show."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Lerryan Douglas

The MMA Guru picks Lerryan Douglas, calling him a 'clobberer' who throws heat-seeking punches. He believes Douglas's power and fast starts will be too much for Julian Erosa, whose chin is questionable. He notes Douglas's training at Bloodline MMA with Cub Swanson and Danny Silva as a positive. He predicts a KO in the first round.

KO in round 1
"We're going with Larry and Douglas. And also Larry and Douglas trains with uh Bloodline MMA."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Zane picks Erosa just for fun, calling it a coin flip. He notes that Douglas is awful moving backward and collapses inward, while Erosa is capable of pushing forward and has a vicious clinch game. He points out that Erosa has survived early trouble before and that Douglas's losses come from guys who gave him what he asked for and he couldn't handle it.

Odds: Douglas opened -350, now -300; Erosa opened +285, now +250. Zane says odds should be closer.
"I'll take Arosa just for fun."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Erosa 0 69 of 173 39% 85 of 202 3 of 10 30% 0 0 3:34
Melquizael Costa 0 102 of 204 50% 128 of 236 2 of 3 66% 1 0 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Erosa 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 27 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:36
Melquizael Costa 0 32 of 75 42% 32 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 Julian Erosa 0 23 of 54 42% 30 of 62 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:56
Melquizael Costa 0 33 of 55 60% 47 of 70 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:08
3 Julian Erosa 0 36 of 93 38% 45 of 113 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:02
Melquizael Costa 0 37 of 74 50% 49 of 91 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Erosa 69 of 173 39% 42 of 140 18 of 24 9 of 9 55 of 150 13 of 21 1 of 2
Melquizael Costa 102 of 204 50% 67 of 160 16 of 22 19 of 22 99 of 196 3 of 7 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Erosa 10 of 26 38% 5 of 19 1 of 3 4 of 4 9 of 24 0 of 0 1 of 2
Melquizael Costa 32 of 75 42% 14 of 52 7 of 10 11 of 13 32 of 73 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Julian Erosa 23 of 54 42% 11 of 40 8 of 10 4 of 4 15 of 43 8 of 11 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 33 of 55 60% 25 of 46 3 of 4 5 of 5 31 of 53 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Julian Erosa 36 of 93 38% 26 of 81 9 of 11 1 of 1 31 of 83 5 of 10 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 37 of 74 50% 28 of 62 6 of 8 3 of 4 36 of 70 1 of 3 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-192), Erosa (+160)

Round 1
Although much can be said about the state of UFC matchmaking as of late, the promotion knew exactly what it was doing when it matched Erosa (31-11, 9-7 UFC) against Costa (23-7, 4-2 UFC). It chose violence. The featherweights will go for broke under the watchful eye of referee Herb Dean, and they get right to it after embracing the formality of bumping fists. Costa prods with the ball of his foot, looking for low kicks as Erosa walks him down. Costa keeps working on the front leg as Erosa gives him one back, and Erosa grabs his foe’s foot and lifts it up. Costa bounces off the fence to get his limb back, and he whiffs on two hooks. Costa scores a body kick as he stays on the outside, and after pitching a leg kick, he trips on the edge of the cage but does not fall over. Erosa lets him get up and continues to trade kicks with him, and Costa mixes things up with a surprise Superman punch. Costa follows it with a booming head kick that rocks “Juicy J,” who backs off to the fence but is still dangerous as a coiled snake. Costa walks forward to throw bombs, and Erosa snipes him with a mean right hand that makes him think twice. Erosa gets his legs back beneath him and blocks a head kick, walking Costa down but taking three punches on the chin to do so. Erosa fakes a spin and lunges forward with an elbow, slipping and falling over. Costa lets him up so he can leap at him with a knee, and he chains punches into a body kick as Erosa is now the one retreating. Costa parries a few punches and lets fly a left hand, and his second effort reaches his man. Costa wraps a head kick around the guard and Erosa shrugs it off, nailing Costa with a right hand over the top. Erosa jumps at his foe to attack, and Costa times a spinning back kick that pounds into the cup. Erosa grumbles and adjusts his groin supporter before waving Dean off. Costa lets his foe’s fists and feet whiz past him so he can deliver a hard body kick, and Erosa fakes his way in to take the fight down. Erosa whips Costa all the way around to take him down, and he slashes down with an elbow as soon as he gets to side control. Costa is warned for having his toes in the cage, and Erosa drops down a few punches and leans back to watch an upkick buzz past him at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 2
Costa’s left foot is leaking blood as the second round begins, but he shrugs it off and touches gloves with his opponent. Erosa gets right into attack mode, firing off a head kick and a right hand but getting countered with a left and a body kick. Costa belts “Juicy J” with a left hand, and Erosa bites down on his mouthpiece to unload a power punch. Costa shakes Erosa up with a one-two, and Erosa again has to recover before coming forward. The punches of Costa make Erosa pursue a takedown, and Costa defends with a guillotine choke and stands back up to re-secure it. Erosa holds on and leverages Costa back down, but he in submission danger again. Costa lets go before burning his arms out, and he stands up. Erosa leans on from behind, his left eye swelling up fast. Costa defends a takedown effort and keeps his balance, stomping Erosa’s foot and receiving an elbow in the face for his effort. As Erosa is leaning heavily on his man, Costa sweeps his leg and puts him down for a second. Erosa climbs back up and walks through a one-two. Costa reaches the Washington native at the end of a left hand, and Erosa fires back with a vengeance. They reach one another with long punches, and instead of clinching, Erosa pushes off and shrugs at him. Costa lines up a solid crescent kick that hits the target, and Erosa goes for broke with punches and kicks to any target he can find. Erosa pokes Costa in the eye, and Costa tells them he is fine and keeps going. Erosa thanks him by drilling a spinning back kick in his ribs, and Costa laughs it off and throws hammers. Erosa staggers Costa with a pair of hooks, and a grinning Costa swings back with bad intentions and rocks Erosa. Erosa spins through to hit Costa in the face with his foot, and he knocks Costa across the cage with a left hand right before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erosa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 3
While Erosa does touch gloves, he is a man on a mission. Walking Costa down immediately, he swings his way into a clinch. Erosa leans on the Brazilian to slow him down, getting off the occasional knee until Costa trips him and sets him down. Erosa responds by nailing Costa with an upkick and working his way to his feet, where he backs “Melk” off and dislodges his mouthpiece with a right hand. He follows with another right hand to lead into a clinch, and Costa backs off with a left hook. The two clash heads after Erosa lands an uppercut, and “Juicy J” pours it on while swinging wildly. Costa’s head movement keeps him relatively safe, and he blasts Erosa in the jaw with four punches in a combination. Erosa’s movement leads him to banging into the fence, but he is quick to shake it off and uppercut Costa in the chops. Erosa continues staying in Costa’s face, with punches that lead to an elbow as Costa is backing off but smiling. Erosa lines up punches in bunches, and his elbows are not accurate. They proceed to brawl it out with little regard to defense or cardio, and even though Costa is fatigued, he is still loading up with everything he has. Thankfully for those watching this carnage, Erosa is doing just the same, as they proceed to hammer one another in the jaw again and again. Costa trips Erosa up to get a second to breathe, and he backs off to avoid an upkick and let Erosa stand. Erosa marches ever forward, swinging recklessly while Costa is giving it back when he can. Costa takes several punches square on the jaw and offers up a knee, and Erosa spins with a back fist. A second and third back fist from Erosa do manage to rail into the Brazilian, who is as tough as nails and never falters. The action-packed “Fight of the Night” candidate goes the distance, and both exhausted men raise their arms. The second round may be where the victor emerges.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erosa (29-28 Erosa)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa (29-28 Costa)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa (29-28 Costa)

The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Julian Erosa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Angelo picks Melquizael Costa with high confidence, stating that Costa should be better everywhere. He notes Costa's creative striking, solid grappling, and incredible scrambles. His only concern is Costa's activity level, as this will be his fifth fight in 12 months, which could lead to nagging injuries or fatigue. However, Angelo is not overly concerned and expects Costa to win.

"Mel Costa. I am very confident in this pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Big Brady picks Julian Erosa as a dog, acknowledging Costa could knock him out early. He notes Costa's quick turnaround and tendency to slow down, while Erosa has great cardio and a nasty choke game. He predicts Erosa wins by second-round submission if it gets extended.

Erosa by submission, round 2
"I like a Rosa here as a dog. ... I'm going to take him to win this fight by second round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Melquizael Costa

The host notes Costa's aggressiveness and unorthodox striking can catch Erosa off guard, especially since six of Erosa's seven losses have come by knockout. He feels Costa can take advantage of Erosa's mistakes and get a finish. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds.

Costa by KO/TKO; under 2.5 rounds
"I think his just aggressiveness and unorthodox striking approach can really catch Arosa offguard."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Melquizael Costa

The Guru picks Melquizael Costa, calling him a fellow 'fraud checker' who can handle Julian Erosa's gritty style. He notes Costa's grappling looked improved against Christian Rodriguez and his kicks are very good. He worries about Erosa's upset potential but believes Costa is better and more active. He predicts a TKO or decision win.

"I'm going to have to go with Malikisel Costa. I think he's just better by far than Julian Rosa."
WIN vs Darren Elkins
KO R1 4:15 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Elkins 0 13 of 31 41% 18 of 45 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:48
Julian Erosa 0 54 of 73 73% 69 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Elkins 0 13 of 31 41% 18 of 45 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:48
Julian Erosa 0 54 of 73 73% 69 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Elkins 13 of 31 41% 11 of 28 1 of 2 1 of 1 12 of 29 0 of 0 1 of 2
Julian Erosa 54 of 73 73% 52 of 71 0 of 0 2 of 2 22 of 39 11 of 12 21 of 22
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Elkins 13 of 31 41% 11 of 28 1 of 2 1 of 1 12 of 29 0 of 0 1 of 2
Julian Erosa 54 of 73 73% 52 of 71 0 of 0 2 of 2 22 of 39 11 of 12 21 of 22
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Julian Erosa

Daniel Levi states that Julian Erosa did exactly what he was supposed to do as a big favorite, handling the older veteran Darren Elkins. He approves of the performance.

"Rosa did exactly what he was supposed to do as a big favor. You go out there and you handle, you know, the kind of old decrepit 40-year-old vet, and that's exactly what he did."
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 4:49 · UFC on ESPN: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Jul 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Erosa 0 35 of 88 39% 39 of 94 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:41
Christian Rodriguez 0 33 of 75 44% 33 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Erosa 0 35 of 88 39% 39 of 94 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:41
Christian Rodriguez 0 33 of 75 44% 33 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Erosa 35 of 88 39% 27 of 73 7 of 13 1 of 2 33 of 84 2 of 4 0 of 0
Christian Rodriguez 33 of 75 44% 26 of 67 2 of 2 5 of 6 31 of 73 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Erosa 35 of 88 39% 27 of 73 7 of 13 1 of 2 33 of 84 2 of 4 0 of 0
Christian Rodriguez 33 of 75 44% 26 of 67 2 of 2 5 of 6 31 of 73 0 of 0 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Julian Erosa vs. Christian Rodriguez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-205), Erosa (+170)

Round 1
Always willing to either add to his highlight reel or be a part of someone else’s, Erosa (29-11, 7-7 UFC) and his .500 record come to a head with Roufusport’s Rodriguez (11-1, 4-1 UFC). While “CeeRod” holds four wins on the scorecards, three of those have come in his last three outings. On the other hand, the last three walks to the cage for Erosa have ended in the first round. Whether it takes three minute or three rounds to get to a result, referee Nick Berens will be here for it from start to finish. The featherweights bump fists, and Erosa uses a front kick to keep Rodriguez away. Rodriguez passes right past it and puts his hands on Erosa’s face. Erosa is reddened up in a hurry from the quick punches from Rodriguez, and he answers with a pair of looping uppercuts. Erosa flicks out his jab, and Rodriguez dips down and smashes him in the face with a head kick. As they trade, Rodriguez’ mouthpiece goes flying, and Erosa sees it and decides it is time to brawl. They slug it out fast and furiously until Berens finds a moment to replace the gumshield, and they get right back to it. Erosa goads Rodriguez on, and he clips “CeeRod” with a right hand in the midst of a speedy combination. They both connect with powerful blows, and Erosa gets off a strong front kick. Rodriguez kicks his man upside the head, and Erosa tells him to bring it on. Rodriguez does just that. Erosa manages to get Rodriguez to take a step back with his own counters, and his front kick to the chest and face are able to keep the hard-charging Rodriguez relatively at bay. Rodriguez settles down and tosses out a low kick, and Erosa wags his finger at him and rings his bell an elbow. Erosa walks his man down and pounds him in the face with his fists, and Rodriguez responds with a flurry ending with a right hand that staggers Erosa back. Erosa gathers his thoughts and marches forward, a cut opened on the bridge of his nose, and he lets go with a head kick that is blocked. Another elbow from Erosa comes up short, and he catches a kick and bowls and trips Rodriguez to the mat. Erosa scrambles to take Rodriguez’ back and set up a body triangle, and he is quick to consider an armbar instead of going after the neck like usual. Rodriguez defends the possible submission and turns to his knees, and he manages to flip Erosa over. Erosa’s upkicks do not keep Rodriguez off of him, as Rodriguez leaps at him and punches him hard.
Erosa ignores them and grabs hold of a guillotine choke, and it is suddenly and surprisingly tight. Erosa tightens his legs around the waist of his foe and turns to the side, and falls to his back to complete the submission. Rodriguez tries to tough it out, but he is forced to surrender with seconds left on the clock.
Erosa sits up and shoves Rodriguez off of him when Berens intervenes, springing yet another upset and adding one more impressive stoppage to his ledger. The victorious "Juicy J" becomes the first fighter to finish Rodriguez as a professional.

The Official Result
Julian Erosa def. Christian Rodriguez R1 4:49 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Angelo picks Christian Rodriguez but with caution, noting that Rodriguez has been gifted decisions and has never faced a veteran as experienced as Julian Erosa. He acknowledges Rodriguez's slick striking and composure but points out his lack of finishing ability and the fact that Erosa is much larger and more experienced. Angelo warns that the odds seem wide for a fighter who lost to the last tough veteran he faced.

"I do think Christian Rodriguez wins this fight but the odds seem wide two to one favorite 3 to one favorite that seems wide"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Cody picks Rodriguez, highlighting his youth, cardio, and striking advantage. He notes Erosa's history of getting knocked out and believes Rodriguez will overwhelm him with volume and power. He expects a finish, possibly in the first or second round.

"Rodriguez just crushes him like first round knockout."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Daniel Vreeland picks Christian Rodriguez to win, predicting his first UFC knockout. He notes that Rodriguez has handed prospects their first losses and that Erosa's chin is a massive liability. He advises Rodriguez to headhunt rather than engage in a technical battle. He believes Rodriguez will pass the Erosa test.

by KO
"I'm gonna go Christian Rodriguez here to get it done and continue the big win streak."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Christian Rodriguez is the slicker striker and one of the best prospects on the roster. Despite a height and reach disadvantage, he will crash the pocket, land combinations, and eventually drop Erosa, leading to a knockout or a club-and-sub opportunity.

"I think Rodriguez is one of the best if not the best prospect on the roster right now and I think you'll showcase it once again by picking up the biggest win of his UFC career"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Paul picks Rodriguez, citing his superior cardio and durability. He notes Erosa's knockout losses and believes Rodriguez's pressure will be too much. He acknowledges Erosa's length but thinks Rodriguez's pace will win the fight.

"I'll be going with Christian Rodriguez as well."
WIN vs Ricardo Ramos
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:15 · UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Mar 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Erosa 0 7 of 17 41% 12 of 23 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:27
Ricardo Ramos 0 4 of 11 36% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Erosa 0 7 of 17 41% 12 of 23 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:27
Ricardo Ramos 0 4 of 11 36% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Erosa 7 of 17 41% 5 of 14 1 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 2
Ricardo Ramos 4 of 11 36% 2 of 8 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Erosa 7 of 17 41% 5 of 14 1 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 2
Ricardo Ramos 4 of 11 36% 2 of 8 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Angelo leans towards Julian Erosa as an underdog, citing his higher level of competition and ability to weather a storm and grind out a decision. He notes that Ramos is dangerous but also finishable, while Erosa is tough and can dog fights out. He will monitor the line movement for better value.

"I'm going to lean the underdog here I'm going to go with Julian he has the much higher level of competition under his belt and I can see him weathering a storm and then grinding out a decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ricardo Ramos

Big Brady picks Ricardo Ramos, citing Julian Erosa's poor durability (knocked out seven times at featherweight) and low striking defense (47%). He notes Erosa is hittable and his chin is not getting better after back-to-back knockout losses. He expects Ramos to land something and knock Erosa out in the first round.

first round knockout
"I'm taking ricado Ramos I'll take him to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Cody picks Erosa as an underdog, citing his volume and unorthodox style. He acknowledges Erosa's weak chin but believes Ramos is not a big power puncher and may struggle with Erosa's pressure. Cody thinks Erosa can win by decision or late finish if he avoids getting knocked out.

"I will take this ever so slight Underdog play here on Juicy J Julian orosa."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ricardo Ramos

Daniel Vreeland picks Ricardo Ramos by first-round knockout, emphasizing that Erosa has a terrible chin and has been dropped multiple times. He believes Ramos should head-hunt and sell out for the finish, as Erosa is dangerous if the fight extends. He notes if it goes past the first round, all bets are off.

Ramos by first-round knockout
"I think Ramos is gonna come out here and get a ko1"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ricardo Ramos

Ramos has the grappling edge and should be able to muzzle Erosa's unorthodox striking. Erosa is on a two-fight KO loss streak and may be on the chopping block. Ramos should dictate the pace and win on the scorecards, possibly even latching onto a submission. The fight going to decision is also appealing at plus money.

Fight goes to decision (plus money)
"I think that we'll see the better body of work from hamos and I think we'll see him win this fight on the scorecards I think the fight to go to decision is what I like the most."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Paul picks Erosa by KO, noting Ramos's cardio issues and tendency to struggle when missing weight. He believes Erosa's volume and durability will overwhelm Ramos. Paul also likes the under 2.5 rounds, expecting a finish.

under 2.5 rounds
"I'm thinking orosa by KO is where I would think here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ricardo Ramos

The MMA Guru picks Ricardo Ramos over Julian Erosa, citing Ramos's finishing potential and Erosa's recent chin issues. He mentions Erosa's KO losses to Fernando Padilla and Alex Caceres, and a war with Steven Peterson that makes him doubt Erosa. He predicts a first-round KO for Ramos.

round one KO
"I'm going with Ricardo Ramos... this boy is getting chinned by Ricardo Ramos in round one"
TKO (punches) R1 1:41 · UFC on ESPN: Song vs. Simon · Apr 29, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Fernando Padilla 0 15 of 24 62% 15 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Julian Erosa 1 20 of 29 68% 20 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Fernando Padilla 0 15 of 24 62% 15 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Julian Erosa 1 20 of 29 68% 20 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Fernando Padilla 15 of 24 62% 9 of 18 1 of 1 5 of 5 15 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julian Erosa 20 of 29 68% 17 of 25 2 of 3 1 of 1 19 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Fernando Padilla 15 of 24 62% 9 of 18 1 of 1 5 of 5 15 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julian Erosa 20 of 29 68% 17 of 25 2 of 3 1 of 1 19 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Fernando Padilla

Cody picks Padilla as an underdog, citing Erosa's durability issues and tendency to get knocked out. He notes that Padilla has decent power and could catch Erosa early. However, he is flip-floppy and admits he wants to pick Erosa due to experience, but the favorite tag on a chinny fighter makes him lean towards the underdog.

"for the purposes of the show I need some underdogs and I'll I'm gonna take Padilla but like ah I want to take a Rosa I really really do"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Connor thinks Erosa's experience and durability will prevail. He notes Padilla's poor defense and tendency to gas, and that Erosa gets stronger as fights go on. He acknowledges Erosa's history of getting KO'd but believes Padilla's lack of power and technical striking make it less likely. He sees Erosa as the more versatile fighter in messy exchanges.

Odds mentioned: Erosa opened -252, currently -140. Padilla opened +218, currently +126. Connor thinks the odds should be closer to 50/50.
"I'm going to take your Rosa as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Paul picks Erosa but very cautiously, acknowledging his chin issues and recent knockout losses. He notes that Erosa is talented and exciting but has been knocked out by light punchers. He is not confident enough to bet on Erosa, but for the pick he goes with Erosa, hoping he doesn't get cracked again.

"I'm gonna be picking Julian Arosa but uh ever so cautiously because that chin can get cracked and has got cracked"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Zane agrees, citing Padilla's limited game and Erosa's ability to win scrambles and late rounds. He notes Padilla's submissions off his back but thinks Erosa's aggression and cardio will be decisive. He sees Erosa as the rightful slight favorite.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"I'm going to take your Rosa as well."
LOSS vs Alex Caceres
TKO (head kick and punches) R1 3:04 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Dec 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Caceres 1 16 of 30 53% 16 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Julian Erosa 0 10 of 22 45% 10 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Caceres 1 16 of 30 53% 16 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Julian Erosa 0 10 of 22 45% 10 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Caceres 16 of 30 53% 9 of 19 3 of 6 4 of 5 13 of 24 0 of 0 3 of 6
Julian Erosa 10 of 22 45% 2 of 11 3 of 4 5 of 7 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Caceres 16 of 30 53% 9 of 19 3 of 6 4 of 5 13 of 24 0 of 0 3 of 6
Julian Erosa 10 of 22 45% 2 of 11 3 of 4 5 of 7 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Angelo is very confident in Julian Erosa, believing he can win the stand-up exchanges and stay alive on the ground. He notes Erosa has more power, volume, and good enough takedowns to keep Caceres guessing. He acknowledges Caceres' experience could sneak out a win but thinks Erosa is dangerous and well-rounded enough.

"I love Julian erosa in this spot and he's one of the few confident picks I have on this card"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Big Brady picks Julian Erosa, noting that Erosa is typically an underdog but is favored here. He likes Erosa's volume, pressure, power, and submission game. He thinks Caceres lacks power and has been submitted many times. He expects Erosa to break Caceres and get a second-round submission.

Erosa wins by submission in round 2
"I like a Rosa to kind of break because Sarah says the fight goes on and I'll say Rosa gets a second round submission win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Cody picks Erosa, noting his inconsistency but coming off a good performance against Hakeem Dawodu. He thinks Erosa has all the intangibles: volume, movement, wrestling, and grappling. He believes Caceres is a gatekeeper who beats lower-level guys but loses to legit fighters. He expects Erosa to outwork Caceres and win by decision.

Erosa by decision
"I gotta go with that man he looks so complete against Hakeem... I think Rosa wins gross wins by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Dec 17, 2022 (fight day)

The host bet the over 2.5 rounds, not a moneyline pick. He thinks both guys are durable and neither has big knockout power, so it should go to decision. He leans Erosa to win but doesn't like the -170 moneyline. No clear winner pick.

Over 2.5 rounds at -155, 1.55 units; mentioned Erosa by decision
"I don't really think considers has that big pop in his shots to put him down and put him out same on the erosa side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Paul picks Erosa, agreeing with Cody. He notes his biggest concern with Erosa is his chin against power punchers, but Caceres is not a one-hitter quitter. He expects Erosa to clear 65.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks, as he throws high volume and the fight likely goes to decision.

Erosa over 65.5 significant strikes (PrizePicks)
"I will be adding erosa significant strikes more than 65.5 on price picks"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

The MMA Guru picks Julian Erosa over Alex Caceres, believing Erosa's pace, pressure, and wrestling will be too much. He notes Caceres is vegan and Erosa goes to the body a lot, which could be a factor. He thinks Caceres won't finish Erosa, and Erosa's grappling is too good to get submitted. He predicts a third-round finish or decision win for Erosa, citing his recent wins over Hakeem Dawodu and Nate Landwehr.

"I'll go Juliana Rosa I think it's time to stop doubting him as a fighter"
WIN vs Hakeem Dawodu
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Sep 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Erosa 0 74 of 147 50% 90 of 163 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:12
Hakeem Dawodu 0 92 of 188 48% 152 of 257 2 of 6 33% 0 0 4:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Erosa 0 31 of 57 54% 36 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Hakeem Dawodu 0 48 of 87 55% 60 of 99 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:41
2 Julian Erosa 0 21 of 39 53% 28 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Hakeem Dawodu 0 22 of 51 43% 47 of 80 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:30
3 Julian Erosa 0 22 of 51 43% 26 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:08
Hakeem Dawodu 0 22 of 50 44% 45 of 78 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Erosa 74 of 147 50% 43 of 109 18 of 21 13 of 17 57 of 126 16 of 20 1 of 1
Hakeem Dawodu 92 of 188 48% 60 of 149 28 of 32 4 of 7 59 of 149 24 of 30 9 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Erosa 31 of 57 54% 14 of 36 10 of 12 7 of 9 23 of 48 8 of 9 0 of 0
Hakeem Dawodu 48 of 87 55% 32 of 67 15 of 16 1 of 4 34 of 72 14 of 15 0 of 0
2 Julian Erosa 21 of 39 53% 16 of 34 2 of 2 3 of 3 16 of 34 5 of 5 0 of 0
Hakeem Dawodu 22 of 51 43% 13 of 39 6 of 9 3 of 3 11 of 35 6 of 11 5 of 5
3 Julian Erosa 22 of 51 43% 13 of 39 6 of 7 3 of 5 18 of 44 3 of 6 1 of 1
Hakeem Dawodu 22 of 50 44% 15 of 43 7 of 7 0 of 0 14 of 42 4 of 4 4 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Angelo picks Hakeem Dawodu, citing his technical striking and power. He notes Erosa relies on his chin and was losing to a lower-level striker before getting late takedowns. He thinks Dawodu's technicality and power will be too much, and he has a moneyline bet on Dawodu.

moneyline bet on Dawodu
"I love Hakeem Dawodu I love him in this fight I have a money line bet on him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Big Brady picks Hakeem Dawodu to win by second-round knockout, praising Dawodu's striking and power. He notes Julian Erosa is very hittable and has been knocked out multiple times, while Dawodu looked phenomenal in his last fight. He believes Dawodu is the better striker and will land clean, though he acknowledges Erosa is always in exciting fights and could finish himself.

second round knockout
"I think Keem knocks him out I'll say in the second round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Cody picks Hakeem Dawodu, noting his clean technical striking and that he is a better striker than Erosa. He likes the under 2.5 rounds at plus money, as Erosa is a wild fighter who often leads to finishes. He believes Dawodu's takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing and that he will pick Erosa apart.

Under 2.5 rounds at +120
"i think the wadu wins but i like the under more um for my money"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Daniel Levi picks Hakeem Dawodu confidently. He praises Dawodu's technical striking, low stance, and volume, and considers him a top-15 featherweight. He notes Erosa's tendency to get dropped but come back, but believes Dawodu's technical soundness will prevent a comeback. Levi sees Dawodu winning by knockout or decision.

"I do have hakim dawa do to win this fight but i gotta give credit to arosa."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Jacob agrees, saying if the fight stays clean, Dawodu dominates in a kickboxing match. He notes Erosa's only chance is to turn it into a brawl, but Dawodu has good takedown defense. He thinks Dawodu should win easily but might sprinkle Erosa into a DraftKings lineup as an underdog.

might sprinkle Erosa into a DraftKings lineup
"If this stays clean there is not many people in the UFC in the featherweight division that are gonna beat Hakeem in a clean kickboxing match."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

The host is confident in Hakeem Dawodu, expecting his crisp striking, discipline, and distance management to outpoint the wild and hittable Erosa. He sees a decision win as the most likely path and notes Dawodu's decision prop at +140.

Hakeem Dawodu by decision (+140)
"Give me Hakeem Dawodu by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Paul is confident in Hakeem Dawodu, calling him one of his anchors. He praises Dawodu's Muay Thai and technique, and believes his takedown defense is sufficient. He expects Dawodu to win by late stoppage or decision, as Erosa is wild and loopy with his strikes. He notes that Erosa fights down to his opponent's level.

"at -220 i feel like hakeem is going to be one of my anchors this week i think he's a better striker takedown defense is good enough to keep this fight standing"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2022 (fight day)
Hakeem Dawodu

The MMA Guru picks Hakeem Dawodu to win by 29-28 decision, losing the third round but winning the first two. He notes Dawodu had a bad weight cut, so Erosa's pace may get to him later. Dawodu will pick at Erosa at range, chew up his leg, land body shots, and win clinch exchanges. Erosa may steal the third round with pressure, but Dawodu's first two rounds secure the win.

decision 29-28
"I think we're gonna see a 29-28 decision by Hakeem dawadu losing the third round but winning the first two"
Melquizael Costa - Fight History
LOSS vs Arnold Allen
DEC R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · May 16, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Arnold Allen 1 98 of 152 64% 156 of 222 7 of 7 100% 0 0 9:28
Melquizael Costa 0 100 of 254 39% 118 of 280 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Arnold Allen 1 9 of 9 100% 18 of 20 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:44
Melquizael Costa 0 10 of 14 71% 19 of 25 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:45
2 Arnold Allen 0 23 of 38 60% 28 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Melquizael Costa 0 26 of 78 33% 28 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Arnold Allen 0 32 of 52 61% 44 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:22
Melquizael Costa 0 30 of 71 42% 30 of 72 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Arnold Allen 0 23 of 36 63% 26 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:43
Melquizael Costa 0 23 of 63 36% 24 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Arnold Allen 0 11 of 17 64% 40 of 51 4 of 4 100% 0 0 4:03
Melquizael Costa 0 11 of 28 39% 17 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Arnold Allen 98 of 152 64% 81 of 134 6 of 7 11 of 11 79 of 131 0 of 2 19 of 19
Melquizael Costa 100 of 254 39% 47 of 173 20 of 42 33 of 39 97 of 249 0 of 1 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Arnold Allen 9 of 9 100% 8 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 5
Melquizael Costa 10 of 14 71% 5 of 8 3 of 3 2 of 3 7 of 11 0 of 0 3 of 3
2 Arnold Allen 23 of 38 60% 16 of 31 2 of 2 5 of 5 23 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 26 of 78 33% 8 of 49 5 of 14 13 of 15 26 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Arnold Allen 32 of 52 61% 27 of 47 2 of 2 3 of 3 25 of 45 0 of 0 7 of 7
Melquizael Costa 30 of 71 42% 14 of 49 7 of 13 9 of 9 30 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Arnold Allen 23 of 36 63% 20 of 33 1 of 1 2 of 2 23 of 35 0 of 1 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 23 of 63 36% 10 of 41 4 of 11 9 of 11 23 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Arnold Allen 11 of 17 64% 10 of 15 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 1 7 of 7
Melquizael Costa 11 of 28 39% 10 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 1 11 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

Angelo picks Arnold Allen, believing he is cleaner, faster, and more experienced. He is not worried about Costa's grappling and thinks Allen will control the striking. He notes Costa has random power but sees no reason Allen is chinny. He expects Allen to be a step ahead.

"Arnold Allen is the pick. ... I think Arnold Allen is cleaner. I think he's faster. He certainly has more experience."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

Big Brady picks Arnold Allen despite not being a fan, citing the five-round distance as key. He expects Costa to fade in later rounds, as seen in his previous fights. He predicts a decision win for Allen, noting that if it were three rounds, he might pick Costa.

"I like Allen here."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

Cody leans toward Arnold Allen due to his experience in five-round fights and higher level of competition, despite a 1-3 record in his last four. He notes Allen's ability to win rounds against elite fighters like Max Holloway and Movsar Evloev, and expects his cardio to be an advantage as the fight progresses. However, he is hesitant to bet the current -155 line and prefers to play Allen in the live market if he loses early rounds. He acknowledges Melquizael Costa's recent knockout power and higher volume, but worries about Costa's cardio in a five-round fight.

Would rather bet Arnold Allen in the live market if he loses the first round; expects a 48-47 decision.
"I'd rather just bet Arnold Allen in the live market instead of betting minus 155 right now."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked May 16, 2026 (fight day)
Arnold Allen

Costa is more technical and dynamic on the feet, but may fade in later rounds. Allen is tough, durable, and has good cardio. If Costa's gas tank holds, he wins; if not, Allen takes over. Lean Allen but not betting.

Costa +5.5 is interesting but odds too short.
"My lean is Arnold Allen, but I wouldn't bet him."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

Lucrative James picks Arnold Allen to win, citing Allen's superior five-round experience, size, and ability to close distance against kickers like Costa. He believes Costa's recent knockout streak is not repeatable and that Allen's losses to elite fighters (Max Holloway, Movsar Evloev, Jean Silva) were competitive. He also notes Allen's grappling advantage and the small cage benefiting Allen's pressure style.

"I think Arnold Allen is going to win the fight. I trust Arnold Allen a little bit more with his five round experience."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

The host picks Arnold Allen but is hesitant due to the chalky odds. He expects Allen to land more significant damage, but acknowledges Costa's volume and aggression could cause issues. He believes Allen's veteran savvy and five-round experience will lead to a decision win.

"It's hard for me to fully trust Allen, especially at chalky odds here, but I expect him to land more a significant damage. Although the volume and aggression of Costa could potentially cause Allen some issues, I believe the veteran …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

The host leans with the veteran Allen due to his experience and ability to potentially exploit Costa's aggressive style, especially in a five-round fight. However, he is not confident enough to bet Allen at -180, as he has never been high on Allen. He predicts Allen wins by decision and might consider the over.

over (implied)
"I find myself leaning with the veteran though. I find myself leaning with Allen. I I just feel like he's his experience."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Paul is not passionate about the main event but leans toward Melquizael Costa if forced to make a play. He notes that Costa has been on a good run and that Arnold Allen has never been knocked down in the UFC, but Costa seems to be putting it together. He is not confident enough to bet pre-fight and will focus on live markets instead.

"If I was forced to make a play, I'd probably click Costa."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Jan 31, 2023 (1201 days before fight)

The host leans towards Max Holloway because the fight is five rounds, which favors Holloway's cardio and experience. He notes that Arnold Allen tends to break his hand and slow down in later rounds, as seen in the Sadiq Yusuf fight. He believes Allen will win the first two rounds but fade, allowing Holloway to potentially finish in rounds 4 or 5. He also mentions Holloway's durability and volume punching.

"I am leaning towards Max Holloway winning this fight as it goes on maybe getting a finish in the later rounds"
WIN vs Dan Ige
KO R1 4:56 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Feb 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Ige 0 7 of 11 63% 12 of 16 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:31
Melquizael Costa 1 19 of 40 47% 26 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Ige 0 7 of 11 63% 12 of 16 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:31
Melquizael Costa 1 19 of 40 47% 26 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Ige 7 of 11 63% 2 of 5 2 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 19 of 40 47% 9 of 26 7 of 9 3 of 5 13 of 29 4 of 5 2 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Ige 7 of 11 63% 2 of 5 2 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 19 of 40 47% 9 of 26 7 of 9 3 of 5 13 of 29 4 of 5 2 of 6
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Melquizael Costa vs. Dan Ige

Round 1
Jacob Montalvo is the referee. Ige takes the center, kicks the leg and then lands a takedown. Costa is right back up as Ige presses him into the cage. Ige with a shoulder strike from the clinch. Costa is able to toss Ige to the canvas and then lands a knee to the body as his foe stands. They’re battling it out in the clinch, and Costa drives a couple knees to the midsection. Costa with another knee and then he shoves Ige away. Costa goes high with a kick, but Ige has his guard up .Another high kick from Costa is blocked. Costa follows yet another head kick with a front kick down the middle. Another front kick has hurt Ige, but he keeps his wits to survive a follow-up barrage from his foe. Costa steps in with an elbow, then lands a knee as he slides out of range. Ige forces the clinch, but Costa knees and separates. Costa follows a side kick to the body with a left hand. A leg kick lands on Ige. Costa backs up to the fence but leaps in with a knee.
With time winding down, Costa drops Ige with a beautiful spinning back kick to the jaw. Ige covers up on the canvas, and Costa unloads with about seven to eight standing-to-ground punches before Montalvo steps in to wave off the fight.
Costa has his sixth straight UFC win and in the process becomes the first person to finish Ige in 30 professional fights.

The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Dan Ige via TKO (Spinning Back Kick and Punches) R1 4:56
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Angelo picks Melquizael Costa, citing his speed, busy style, and well-rounded skills. He respects Dan Ige's toughness and experience but believes Costa is the rising star. He also suggests a plus 3.5 bet on Ige as a potential prop, noting Ige often wins rounds even in losses.

Suggests Dan Ige plus 3.5 as a prop bet.
"I got to pick Mel Costa."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2026 (13 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Big Brady picks Melquizael Costa to defeat Dan Ige, citing Costa's hot streak and superior minute-winning. He notes Costa has more tools on the feet, including kicks, and that Ige is hittable and tends to lose decisions. He is concerned about Ige's last performance against Pitbull, where he did nothing. He predicts Costa will win by decision, picking him apart with volume. He mentions the line moved from -120 to -185, indicating public money on Costa.

Melquizael Costa by decision; line movement noted
"I like Costa here. I kind of think it's just a Costa decision. Just picking apart Dan Ige, who is hittable, landing a lot of kicks, landing a lot of volume, and winning this fight on the scorecard."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Cody likes Ige at plus money, citing his recent performances against top competition (Diego Lopez, Lerone Murphy, Patricio Pitbull) where he won rounds. He thinks Costa's wrestling isn't proven and that Ige's cardio and power in later rounds give him an edge. He expects a decision win for Ige.

"I got a Dan Eay play out of this. And if you really want to get jiggy with it, like Eay's got knockout power. Do not overlook it, but likely Eay by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Connor picks Ige but with caution, noting that Costa is an opportunistic fighter who has been winning but often in messy ways. He points out that Costa tends to fade in the third round and that Ige is durable and a good counter puncher. He also notes that Ige has been impossible to finish and that Costa's lack of process could be exploited by Ige's experience.

Ige opened +105, now +182; Costa opened -125, now -212
"I'm going to pick Danny Gaye, but it's a very uneasy pick and I have been wrong. I've been surprised by Costa all the way through."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Feb 14, 2026 (7 days before fight)

The host favors Costa stylistically due to his size, length, and technical striking, but considers the odds too steep to bet. He notes both fighters are weak on the ground, and Ige has one-shot knockout power, making Costa a risky bet at -224. He passes on betting either side.

"This is one of those matchups where for me it's an easy pass. I favor Costa. He should win. The odds are too steep. There's no way I can justify a bet on him at these odds."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Dan Ige

James picks Dan Ige as the betting side, believing Ige has better pocket boxing and power, and that Costa's cardio and durability are questionable. He notes that Ige has faced much tougher competition and that Costa's recent wins are over lesser opponents. James expects Ige to get a knockout, possibly in the later rounds as Costa fades.

"I am going to pick Eay as the betting side. I think that ultimately gets a knockout in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Costa is on a five-fight winning streak with good activity and a kicking game that should trouble Ige. Ige is a veteran boxer but has struggled against high-volume strikers. Costa's range and kicks should keep Ige at bay, and he should land the more significant strikes. Ige could have success if he crashes the pocket, but Costa should win a decision.

"I still think he ends up landing more significant strikes, the better shots, the more eye-catching shots, and I think that leads to him winning this fight on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Ige's ability to win rounds against elite fighters. He points out that Costa has slowed down in later rounds and that Ige's takedown defense has improved. He thinks the fight goes to decision and Ige's experience gives him the edge.

"I want that plus money price tag for sure. Milk's a little unproven, right?"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

The MMA Guru picks Dan Ige by TKO, feeling that Ige's composure and power will catch Costa. He notes that Costa sometimes throws lazy kicks and can be caught on the back foot. He believes Ige is the highest-level opponent Costa has faced and can time him for a KO.

TKO
"I think Dan Ige is going to get this one done by TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Zane also picks Ige with the same caution, agreeing that Costa's success is partly smoke and mirrors. He notes that Costa is not a process-driven fighter and that opponents who are resilient tend to do better against him as the fight goes on. He believes Ige's counter-punching and durability will be key, but acknowledges Costa could win if he lands a big shot early.

"So I'm picking Ige too, but with exactly the same amount of caution. As you, I am prepared to be wrong."
KO R1 1:14 · UFC on ESPN: Royval vs. Kape · Dec 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Melquizael Costa 1 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Morgan Charrière 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Melquizael Costa 1 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Morgan Charrière 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Melquizael Costa 4 of 9 44% 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 5 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 2 of 4 50% 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Melquizael Costa 4 of 9 44% 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 5 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 2 of 4 50% 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Morgan Charriere vs. Melquizael Costa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-110); Charriere (-110)

Round 1
Finally settling on a suitable—and spectacular—nickname, Costa (24-7, 5-2 UFC) now goes by “The Dalmatian” rather than some version of his name or a riff on some inside joke no one gets. He faces an equally dramatic traveler, Charriere (21-11-1, 3-2 UFC), who used to go by the nickname of “Luffy” in honor of the main character from anime series “One Piece.” There will be no Gum Gum attacks in the cage as long as referee Eric McMahon is in charge. The featherweights race towards one another, not bothering to touch gloves as Costa moves right to the center of the cage.
Costa pitches out a low kick and then one to the liver, the latter landing loudly. Charriere kicks him back, resulting in a back-and-forth kick-off. Costa aims a push kick to the knee of his foe, and he splits the guard with a jab.
Out of nowhere, “The Dalmatian” drops down and hurls a missile of a high kick, who falls to the floor off-balance. Before he hits the deck, his foot wraps just around the guard enough to completely separate Charriere from his senses. Even with Charriere blocking it, the sheer impact was enough to completely neutralize him.
Charriere collapses to his back, limbs seemingly stricken by rigor mortis, his eyes wide open but no one is home. Costa scoots back up to his feet and is about to drop down a punctuating blow, but he peels off seeing that his work here is done. After a very brief celebratory hoot, Costa drops to his knees in the center of the cage respectfully as he waits for Charriere to recover. Thankfully, Charriere sits up and is able to return to his feet before long, but he needs to be assisted out of the cage with someone having their arm around him. It is an emotional moment for the pink and blue-haired featherweight who may have just earned the biggest win of his career in ultra-violent fashion.

The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Morgan Charriere R1 1:14 via KO (Head Kick)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Cody picks Costa, citing his well-rounded game, durability, and ability to mix striking with takedowns. He notes Charrière's low volume and tendency to wait, while Costa is more active and willing to push the pace. He expects Costa to win a decision.

Costa by decision +150
"Melk Costa is the side for me."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Lucrative James leans toward Morgan Charrière, citing his ability to dictate where the fight takes place and his power advantage. However, he admits it's a 50/50 fight and not confident, noting Charrière's inconsistent fight IQ and Costa's kicking and grappling skills. He projects even odds at -110 each.

"I will say that Sharier gets it done just cuz I think that he can probably dictate where the fight takes place."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Paul also picks Costa, emphasizing his blend of skills and recent submission streak. He thinks Charrière is skilled but often does not do enough, while Costa's forward pressure and grappling will secure the win. He suggests Costa by decision.

Costa by decision +150
"Melk Costa by decision."
WIN vs Julian Erosa
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Erosa 0 69 of 173 39% 85 of 202 3 of 10 30% 0 0 3:34
Melquizael Costa 0 102 of 204 50% 128 of 236 2 of 3 66% 1 0 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Erosa 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 27 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:36
Melquizael Costa 0 32 of 75 42% 32 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 Julian Erosa 0 23 of 54 42% 30 of 62 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:56
Melquizael Costa 0 33 of 55 60% 47 of 70 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:08
3 Julian Erosa 0 36 of 93 38% 45 of 113 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:02
Melquizael Costa 0 37 of 74 50% 49 of 91 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Erosa 69 of 173 39% 42 of 140 18 of 24 9 of 9 55 of 150 13 of 21 1 of 2
Melquizael Costa 102 of 204 50% 67 of 160 16 of 22 19 of 22 99 of 196 3 of 7 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Erosa 10 of 26 38% 5 of 19 1 of 3 4 of 4 9 of 24 0 of 0 1 of 2
Melquizael Costa 32 of 75 42% 14 of 52 7 of 10 11 of 13 32 of 73 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Julian Erosa 23 of 54 42% 11 of 40 8 of 10 4 of 4 15 of 43 8 of 11 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 33 of 55 60% 25 of 46 3 of 4 5 of 5 31 of 53 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Julian Erosa 36 of 93 38% 26 of 81 9 of 11 1 of 1 31 of 83 5 of 10 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 37 of 74 50% 28 of 62 6 of 8 3 of 4 36 of 70 1 of 3 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-192), Erosa (+160)

Round 1
Although much can be said about the state of UFC matchmaking as of late, the promotion knew exactly what it was doing when it matched Erosa (31-11, 9-7 UFC) against Costa (23-7, 4-2 UFC). It chose violence. The featherweights will go for broke under the watchful eye of referee Herb Dean, and they get right to it after embracing the formality of bumping fists. Costa prods with the ball of his foot, looking for low kicks as Erosa walks him down. Costa keeps working on the front leg as Erosa gives him one back, and Erosa grabs his foe’s foot and lifts it up. Costa bounces off the fence to get his limb back, and he whiffs on two hooks. Costa scores a body kick as he stays on the outside, and after pitching a leg kick, he trips on the edge of the cage but does not fall over. Erosa lets him get up and continues to trade kicks with him, and Costa mixes things up with a surprise Superman punch. Costa follows it with a booming head kick that rocks “Juicy J,” who backs off to the fence but is still dangerous as a coiled snake. Costa walks forward to throw bombs, and Erosa snipes him with a mean right hand that makes him think twice. Erosa gets his legs back beneath him and blocks a head kick, walking Costa down but taking three punches on the chin to do so. Erosa fakes a spin and lunges forward with an elbow, slipping and falling over. Costa lets him up so he can leap at him with a knee, and he chains punches into a body kick as Erosa is now the one retreating. Costa parries a few punches and lets fly a left hand, and his second effort reaches his man. Costa wraps a head kick around the guard and Erosa shrugs it off, nailing Costa with a right hand over the top. Erosa jumps at his foe to attack, and Costa times a spinning back kick that pounds into the cup. Erosa grumbles and adjusts his groin supporter before waving Dean off. Costa lets his foe’s fists and feet whiz past him so he can deliver a hard body kick, and Erosa fakes his way in to take the fight down. Erosa whips Costa all the way around to take him down, and he slashes down with an elbow as soon as he gets to side control. Costa is warned for having his toes in the cage, and Erosa drops down a few punches and leans back to watch an upkick buzz past him at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 2
Costa’s left foot is leaking blood as the second round begins, but he shrugs it off and touches gloves with his opponent. Erosa gets right into attack mode, firing off a head kick and a right hand but getting countered with a left and a body kick. Costa belts “Juicy J” with a left hand, and Erosa bites down on his mouthpiece to unload a power punch. Costa shakes Erosa up with a one-two, and Erosa again has to recover before coming forward. The punches of Costa make Erosa pursue a takedown, and Costa defends with a guillotine choke and stands back up to re-secure it. Erosa holds on and leverages Costa back down, but he in submission danger again. Costa lets go before burning his arms out, and he stands up. Erosa leans on from behind, his left eye swelling up fast. Costa defends a takedown effort and keeps his balance, stomping Erosa’s foot and receiving an elbow in the face for his effort. As Erosa is leaning heavily on his man, Costa sweeps his leg and puts him down for a second. Erosa climbs back up and walks through a one-two. Costa reaches the Washington native at the end of a left hand, and Erosa fires back with a vengeance. They reach one another with long punches, and instead of clinching, Erosa pushes off and shrugs at him. Costa lines up a solid crescent kick that hits the target, and Erosa goes for broke with punches and kicks to any target he can find. Erosa pokes Costa in the eye, and Costa tells them he is fine and keeps going. Erosa thanks him by drilling a spinning back kick in his ribs, and Costa laughs it off and throws hammers. Erosa staggers Costa with a pair of hooks, and a grinning Costa swings back with bad intentions and rocks Erosa. Erosa spins through to hit Costa in the face with his foot, and he knocks Costa across the cage with a left hand right before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erosa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 3
While Erosa does touch gloves, he is a man on a mission. Walking Costa down immediately, he swings his way into a clinch. Erosa leans on the Brazilian to slow him down, getting off the occasional knee until Costa trips him and sets him down. Erosa responds by nailing Costa with an upkick and working his way to his feet, where he backs “Melk” off and dislodges his mouthpiece with a right hand. He follows with another right hand to lead into a clinch, and Costa backs off with a left hook. The two clash heads after Erosa lands an uppercut, and “Juicy J” pours it on while swinging wildly. Costa’s head movement keeps him relatively safe, and he blasts Erosa in the jaw with four punches in a combination. Erosa’s movement leads him to banging into the fence, but he is quick to shake it off and uppercut Costa in the chops. Erosa continues staying in Costa’s face, with punches that lead to an elbow as Costa is backing off but smiling. Erosa lines up punches in bunches, and his elbows are not accurate. They proceed to brawl it out with little regard to defense or cardio, and even though Costa is fatigued, he is still loading up with everything he has. Thankfully for those watching this carnage, Erosa is doing just the same, as they proceed to hammer one another in the jaw again and again. Costa trips Erosa up to get a second to breathe, and he backs off to avoid an upkick and let Erosa stand. Erosa marches ever forward, swinging recklessly while Costa is giving it back when he can. Costa takes several punches square on the jaw and offers up a knee, and Erosa spins with a back fist. A second and third back fist from Erosa do manage to rail into the Brazilian, who is as tough as nails and never falters. The action-packed “Fight of the Night” candidate goes the distance, and both exhausted men raise their arms. The second round may be where the victor emerges.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erosa (29-28 Erosa)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa (29-28 Costa)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa (29-28 Costa)

The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Julian Erosa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Angelo picks Melquizael Costa with high confidence, stating that Costa should be better everywhere. He notes Costa's creative striking, solid grappling, and incredible scrambles. His only concern is Costa's activity level, as this will be his fifth fight in 12 months, which could lead to nagging injuries or fatigue. However, Angelo is not overly concerned and expects Costa to win.

"Mel Costa. I am very confident in this pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Big Brady picks Julian Erosa as a dog, acknowledging Costa could knock him out early. He notes Costa's quick turnaround and tendency to slow down, while Erosa has great cardio and a nasty choke game. He predicts Erosa wins by second-round submission if it gets extended.

Erosa by submission, round 2
"I like a Rosa here as a dog. ... I'm going to take him to win this fight by second round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Melquizael Costa

The host notes Costa's aggressiveness and unorthodox striking can catch Erosa off guard, especially since six of Erosa's seven losses have come by knockout. He feels Costa can take advantage of Erosa's mistakes and get a finish. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds.

Costa by KO/TKO; under 2.5 rounds
"I think his just aggressiveness and unorthodox striking approach can really catch Arosa offguard."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Melquizael Costa

The Guru picks Melquizael Costa, calling him a fellow 'fraud checker' who can handle Julian Erosa's gritty style. He notes Costa's grappling looked improved against Christian Rodriguez and his kicks are very good. He worries about Erosa's upset potential but believes Costa is better and more active. He predicts a TKO or decision win.

"I'm going to have to go with Malikisel Costa. I think he's just better by far than Julian Rosa."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Mar 29, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Christian Rodriguez 0 64 of 98 65% 77 of 113 6 of 15 40% 1 1 6:48
Melquizael Costa 0 65 of 105 61% 159 of 208 1 of 2 50% 1 3 4:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Christian Rodriguez 0 11 of 14 78% 12 of 15 1 of 5 20% 1 0 2:07
Melquizael Costa 0 22 of 32 68% 63 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:12
2 Christian Rodriguez 0 19 of 27 70% 24 of 33 1 of 4 25% 0 1 1:42
Melquizael Costa 0 26 of 40 65% 71 of 93 1 of 1 100% 1 1 2:24
3 Christian Rodriguez 0 34 of 57 59% 41 of 65 4 of 6 66% 0 0 2:59
Melquizael Costa 0 17 of 33 51% 25 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Christian Rodriguez 64 of 98 65% 36 of 69 23 of 24 5 of 5 29 of 53 26 of 31 9 of 14
Melquizael Costa 65 of 105 61% 39 of 72 19 of 25 7 of 8 19 of 47 17 of 23 29 of 35
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Christian Rodriguez 11 of 14 78% 3 of 5 8 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 3 9 of 11 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 22 of 32 68% 5 of 11 15 of 19 2 of 2 4 of 9 8 of 12 10 of 11
2 Christian Rodriguez 19 of 27 70% 8 of 16 9 of 9 2 of 2 10 of 18 9 of 9 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 26 of 40 65% 21 of 32 2 of 4 3 of 4 3 of 11 7 of 8 16 of 21
3 Christian Rodriguez 34 of 57 59% 25 of 48 6 of 6 3 of 3 17 of 32 8 of 11 9 of 14
Melquizael Costa 17 of 33 51% 13 of 29 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 27 2 of 3 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Melquizael Costa vs. Christian Rodriguez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-148), Costa (+124)

Round 1
If the UFC isn’t careful, a fight might break out in the cage with this next one. Having bounced back from his first career stoppage loss well enough, Rodriguez (12-2, 5-2 UFC) is looking to put himself on another win streak. To get that going, he will have to get past the recently renamed “Melk Cauthy” Costa (22-7, 3-2 UFC), a name more in line with Costa’s preference for the knockout—or, nocaute. Fists are bumped before they are traded, as the featherweights are joined in the Octagon by referee Fernando Salas Navarro. Costa pump-fakes several times to get started, setting up a high kick with it that does not get through. His low kicks do trip up Rodriguez, who hits his knees and bounces back up to tie Costa up against the wall. Rodriguez peppers the ribs with knees on either sides, and Costa responds with short punches to the side of the dome when not fighting to keep his balance. A body lock and trip from Rodriguez allows him to get Costa down for a split-second, only to have to settle for pushing Costa against the wire again. They jockey for position against the wire, and Rodriguez sells out to drag Costa down to the floor as they hit the ground together. They spring right back upright while still in the tie-up, with Costa stomping the toes and kneeing the body. Costa softens the side up with several punches, and Rodriguez finally hits the sweep he was looking for and puts Costa down. Costa gets back up as fast as he can, and he keeps his hand on the ground to defend himself from knees to the head. Rodriguez suddenly snatches up a brabo choke and twirls Costa around, and the Brazilian does not panic in the slightest and not only escapes it, but flips Rodriguez over to establish top position. Costa attacks the body with elbows, and when Rodriguez explodes back upright, Costa chases him with a single strike before the horn sounds to end the close round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 2
Rodriguez is the initial aggressor in the round, taking it to Costa with punches and kicks. Costa pushes off with the ball of his foot, sending Rodriguez down to the mat for a second. Rodriguez jumps back up, elbows Costa in the noggin and initiates the clinch. Costa breaks free and plants a body kick on the side of his foe, and a second comes up short. Rodriguez jabs his way into a right hand, and Costa counters him with a clean right that drops Rodriguez to his knees. Rodriguez regains his footing and clinches heavily, and he fights off a sweep attempt and turns to avoid a slashing elbow when back tied up. They continue to deliver short strikes to one another, and Rodriguez lands his foot sweep and places Costa on his back. Costa returns upright after a second, where he re-engages in a clinch. Rodriguez ducks down for a level change, and Costa knees Rodriguez in the side of the head and hurts him badly. Rodriguez scrambles to try to keep himself in the fight and not taking much more damage, and he lets Costa’s punches rebound off his guard. Costa wraps up an unusual arm-in guillotine choke from the side, partially a bulldog choke, and Rodriguez stays composed and twists out of it. Costa throws Rodriguez to his back, blood streaming down the left eye of “CeeRod,” and he postures up to jack Rodriguez up with elbows and punches. Rodriguez attempts a guillotine off his back to stop Costa from hitting him, but Costa breaks out of it and drops down more strikes including an axe kick to the chest before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 3
Rodriguez races out of his corner to engage, where he kicks his way into close range and sets up a trip. “CeeRod” hits the sweep—the same one he has been attempting the whole fight—and Costa finds himself on his back playing jiu-jitsu. The Brazilian looks for a kimura in hopes of sweeping, and although he takes a clean elbow on the melon, he turns the tables on Rodriguez and takes his back standing. They continue to roll and twist, and Rodriguez keeps Costa tied up and bullies him to the fencing. Rodriguez uses his elbows to fluster Costa from up close when not looking for another sweep, and he takes Costa off his feet for a moment. Costa climbs back up, elbows his foe in the chin and frames off to take a breath. Rodriguez is quick to impose his weight on him, and he trips Costa up again for good measure. Costa stands and avoids an elbow that soars at him, and he gets pulled back to the floor. Rodriguez tries to take his back, and he slides off. “CeeRod” races back to his feet and rails Costa with a right hand, stunning him for a moment and giving him openings to find more punches and a step-in knee. Costa pushes off with a front kick, and Rodriguez shrugs at him. Costa knees him again, but not before getting clipped with a barrage of punches. Costa whiffs on a two-punch flurry and hits his back from an easy foot sweep from Rodriguez. Rodriguez sits up in the guard and drops down hammers, with Costa faded just enough to not offer resistance to force a standup. Rodriguez rains down a bombardment of hammerfists, including one raised from the ceiling all the way to the floor, and the crowd is loving it. Rodriguez keeps hammering away, and Costa survives to make it the distance.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Rodriguez)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Costa)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Rodriguez)

The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Christian Rodriguez via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Connor picks Rodriguez, noting his excellent wrestling and grappling defense against powerful wrestlers. He thinks Costa's structureless, erratic style will play into Rodriguez's hands, allowing him to show offensive wrestling. However, he cautions that Rodriguez can be too defensive on the feet, as seen against Julian Erosa.

"I'm definitely going to pick him. But I think it stands to be a little bit of a lumpier kind of fight."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Zane picks Rodriguez, emphasizing that he is a much better fighter than Costa. He notes that Rodriguez has feasted on raw fighters who expect to blow him out, and Costa's experience and guillotine threat are concerns but not enough to change the pick. Zane thinks Rodriguez deserves to be a bigger favorite.

"I'm definitely gotta pick him. He's just a much better fighter than Costa."
WIN vs Andre Fili
Submission R1 4:30 · UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · Feb 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andre Fili 0 7 of 24 29% 7 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
Melquizael Costa 0 27 of 56 48% 27 of 56 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andre Fili 0 7 of 24 29% 7 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
Melquizael Costa 0 27 of 56 48% 27 of 56 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andre Fili 7 of 24 29% 4 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 27 of 56 48% 3 of 25 10 of 13 14 of 18 26 of 55 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andre Fili 7 of 24 29% 4 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 27 of 56 48% 3 of 25 10 of 13 14 of 18 26 of 55 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Melquizael Costa vs. Andre Fili

Round 1
A veritable chasm of UFC-level experience separates the next two featherweights, with grizzled Team Alpha Male product Fili (24-11, 1 NC; 12-10, 1 NC UFC) looking to hold the line and remind folks he is still very much a factor. Like Fili, Costa’s (21-7, 2-2 UFC) tenure thus far has been somewhat inconsistent but fairly violent. Referee Jeff Hoiby draws the charge between the two, and the local man Fili has no time for a glove touch as he wants to get going immediately. Fili chases his foe around the cage, looking for his jab. Costa backs him off briefly with a pair of high kicks, and he doubles up on leg kicks as well. Fili walks through everything pitched at him to sling leather, including a right left hand that zips through his guard. “Let’s go Fili” chants boom through the building, and they both fire off head kicks. Fili’s gets his foe’s attention, with Costa smiling at him. They decide to throw caution to the wind for a moment and brawl with no interest in defense, and they tag one another cleanly but do not budge. Costa backs off and fires off a wheel kick, and he settles himself to chop at the Washington-based fighter’s knee with oblique kicks. Costa rips a kick to the ribs as Fili is marching ever forward, and he narrowly evades getting his chin checked with a low kick but still walks into a left hook. Fili blocks a high kick but cannot stop a body kick, and he plods forward, energized by “USA” chants. Fili whiffs on a head kick, unable to lock his foe down, and he brushes his shoulder when Costa misses as well. Fili blocks a kick and hurls one right back, and Costa breathes a sight of relief and strikes back with a high kick. Fili motions that he protected himself from it, and Costa stays on his bike prodding with oblique kicks. Fili connects with a heavy body kick, dodges one that comes back and makes a matador motion. Fili takes a kick and shoots in for a takedown, and when he hits it,
Costa wraps up a guillotine choke and wrenches with all his might. The Brazilian clings to the choke, which is not going anywhere as he has it tight as a drum with his right leg wrapped around Fili’s waist. Fili is fine until suddenly he is not, and he frantically taps out.
The stunned audience is silenced in a second, as the hometown fighter surrenders from the submission and walks off disappointed that he got caught. Meanwhile, Costa has just earned the biggest win of his career, and he goes off to celebrate with teammate Joanderson Brito who previously put Fili away in the first round.

The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Andre Fili R1 4:30 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 17, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Big Brady picks the underdog Melquizael Costa, noting that Andre Fili's durability is declining after many wars, and he was dropped and knocked out recently. He thinks Costa is younger, has more tools on the feet with hard kicks to head, legs, and body, and has solid grappling with seven takedowns in his last three fights. He expects a close fight going to decision, with Costa winning a close decision.

by decision
"I'm going toide with the underdog here in in Mel Costa so give me Mel Costa to win the fight I think it's going to be close though I think it's going to be close I think it goes 15"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Andre Fili

The host acknowledges the fight is close as odds indicate, but believes Fili's strength of schedule, experience, and unorthodox striking will shut down Costa's grappling. He expects Fili to win on the scorecards, possibly by split decision.

"I believe ph's strength of schedule experience and unorthodox striking approach will be enough for him to shut down the grappling of Costa really touching him up from distance and winning this fight on the scorecards but I wouldn't be …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Feb 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Andre Fili

The Guru hesitantly picks Fili, noting he never likes picking him but sees Costa as getting 'fraud checked'. He values Fili's win over Cub Swanson and thinks Costa's loss to Thiago Moisés is a bad look. He expects Fili to mix in grappling in the second and third rounds and win a close decision.

"I'm going to have to do it again we ride Andre Philly Pickers we ride again"
Submission (face crank) R3 1:50 · UFC on ESPN: Perez vs. Taira · Jun 15, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Melquizael Costa 0 16 of 35 45% 76 of 106 2 of 2 100% 2 1 3:00
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 0 6 of 8 75% 20 of 28 4 of 10 40% 1 2 6:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Melquizael Costa 0 4 of 7 57% 31 of 39 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:28
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 0 1 of 2 50% 9 of 12 3 of 4 75% 1 0 3:52
2 Melquizael Costa 0 6 of 16 37% 31 of 46 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:41
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 0 3 of 4 75% 7 of 11 1 of 4 25% 0 2 2:34
3 Melquizael Costa 0 6 of 12 50% 14 of 21 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:51
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 0 2 of 2 100% 4 of 5 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Melquizael Costa 16 of 35 45% 8 of 20 5 of 10 3 of 5 8 of 22 5 of 7 3 of 6
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 6 of 8 75% 4 of 6 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 6 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Melquizael Costa 4 of 7 57% 1 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 3 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 1
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Melquizael Costa 6 of 16 37% 4 of 9 2 of 5 0 of 2 1 of 8 5 of 7 0 of 1
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 3 of 4 75% 1 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Melquizael Costa 6 of 12 50% 3 of 7 3 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 8 0 of 0 3 of 4
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Melquizael Costa vs. Nuerdanbieke Shayilan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-170), Shayilan (+142)

Round 1
The prelims continue with a featherweight contest featuring two men with plenty of experience despite their young ages. At 27, Costa (20-7, 1-2 UFC) is attempting to even his UFC record to .500, while the 30-year-old Shayilan (39-11, 3-2 UFC) aims to make his 51st pro outing a successful one. The third man in the Octagon will be referee Mike Beltran, and the fight kicks off with no plan of a glove touch. Costa jabs his way forward and tosses out a low kick, and Shayilan hops out of the way. Costa kicks low a second time, and Shayilan counters him with a long right hand. Costa lazily reaches out with a right hand, and Shayilan ducks it and hits an easy double-leg takedown to put the vibrantly haired featherweight on his back. Costa turns to his side and looks for a kimura sweep, and he cranks on the submission from his back. “Wolverine” is calm, cool and collected, and he shrugs off the two-on-one wrist lock to keep his arm in good position. Before he burns his arms out, Costa lets go, and he explodes back to his knees and to his feet. Shayilan hits a quick mat return and loops as hook in to take Costa’s back standing. Costa leans himself against the cage wall, so Shayilan snags the body lock and hurls Costa to the floor. Costa climbs back up, and Shayilan uses sheer muscle to toss Costa down once more. Costa turns quickly to swirl around and take the Chinese fighter’s back, and Shayilan counters with a kneebar out of nowhere. Costa defends the leglock by pulling on Shayilan’s knee to try to free his limb, and he stands up and punches down to force the submission apart. Shayilan sits up and attacks a double, and he presses Costa against the cage when he cannot ground him. Using a trip, Shayilan chucks Costa to the mat, and Costa rolls through and even threatens briefly with his own leglock before Shayilan turns through it. Shayilan climbs on top, and Costa responds with short elbows. As Costa is warned for striking the back of the head, the round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shayilan
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Shayilan
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Shayilan

Round 2
Costa moves right to the center of the cage to start the round, and he walks down Shayilan and pushes out a front kick that is just short of the intended target. Shayilan pursues a level change while Costa kicks at him, and he succeeds in dumping the Brazilian to the floor. Shayilan steps into the guard and thumps his man with an elbow, and Costa replies with a few off his back before rolling to try to get hold of an armlock using his legs. Costa bursts out of the position flat on his back to turn to the side, and he grabs hold of an ankle and trips Shayilan up to put him on his seat. Costa drags Shayilan away from the cage, and Shayilan times this explosion to flip around and get on Costa’s back. Costa stands up and turns to shed the Chinese fighter from his back, and they settle for a clinch. Shayilan shoots deep for a single, and Costa turns the corner to stuff it and somehow get hold of Shayilan. Costa ends up dragging Shayilan down from behind, and he wriggle his left arm around the chin for a moment. Shayilan defends the submission and turns all the way through to reestablish top position. Costa considers a triangle choke setup, but Shayilan tosses it aside. Costa uses this moment to power back to his feet, and Shayilan remains stuck on him like fly paper. Costa works the body with a few knees, and he is forced to stop a sudden level change. Shayilan fails on a second takedown try, and he takes a high kick upside the head that draws an immediate lump by the side of his eye. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shayilan
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 3
The last round kicks off with Costa throwing single kicks one after the other. Shayilan parries them and circles away from the power, and he ducks a head kick that zips past him. Costa scores a body kick and eats a two-punch combo for his effort, and attacks the body a second time. Shayilan drops all the way down to the ankle to try to trip Costa up, but Costa turns him over and bowls the Chinese fighter to the floor. Shayilan explodes back to his knees, and Costa hangs on from behind before dragging Shayilan down and getting both hooks in.
“Melk” uses a fierce rear-naked choke grip, squeezing it on top of the chin, but it is extremely tight and quite dangerous. Shayilan’s eyes go wide, as he is surprised at just how powerful the face crank is from the Brazilian. Using palm-to-palm grip, he crushes the submission with every remaining bit of his energy.
Rather than grit it out, Shayilan decides to tap with his fist a few times. This is a huge win for Costa, who now celebrates a perfectly even distribution of victory: seven knockouts, seven submissions and seven decisions. This also marks the seventh time that Shayilan has been submitted.

The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Nuerdanbieke Shayilan R3 1:50 via Submission (Face Crank)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Angelo picks Mel Costa but at very low confidence, noting that Costa is the better fighter but makes poor decisions by wrestling when he should strike. He worries Costa can be pushed around and taken down by Shayilan's bully style. He emphasizes that Costa's wrestling should be plan B, not plan A, and that if he engages in clinch work, Shayilan will drag him to the ground.

"I am going to pick Mel Costa but at insanely very low confidence"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Cody picks Melquizael Costa, noting his striking volume and movement, but is concerned about his last performance where he gassed out against Steve Garcia. He thinks Costa can outwork Nuerdanbieke if he fights smart and doesn't overuse wrestling. Cody expects Costa to win a decision but is not highly confident.

"the pick will be Mel Costa but as you can tell it's just another fight that you don't have a ton of confidence in."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Daniel Vreeland is not high on Melquizael Costa, calling him overrated and lacking killer instinct. He favors Shayilan Nuerdanbieke's power and wrestling, though he notes gassing issues. He believes Nuerdanbieke can hurt Costa or at least win the first round, and calls it a dog-or-pass situation.

"I'm going go shyan to to get an upset here"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Jacob picks Shayilan, expecting a wrestling vs. jiu-jitsu battle where Shayilan's powerful control wrestling will be key. He thinks Shayilan can get takedowns and keep control for at least two rounds to win a decision. He notes that if Costa is ever in a scramble when Shayilan is tired, Costa is more dangerous, but overall favors Shayilan's wrestling.

"I'm going with Shayilan I think that it's going to be a just a wrestling takedown and then it's going to be Mel trying to do that jiu-jitsu thing off his back"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Costa's movement and Jiu-Jitsu should keep him out of trouble from Nuerdanbieke. As long as Costa stays conscious early, his Jiu-Jitsu will outlast Nuerdanbieke, who will slow down, allowing Costa to take control and potentially find a submission.

"Mel Kaz Costa I think his movement and his Jiu-Jitsu will keep him out of too much trouble from nerd and Becca as long as Costa can stay conscious early here I expect his Jiu-Jitsu and his move to uh …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Paul picks Melquizael Costa, citing his superior striking and range management. He notes that Nuerdanbieke has power but low volume and may rely on wrestling. Paul thinks Costa can win with volume if he keeps the fight standing, but is not confident due to Costa's gas tank issues.

"Mel Costa will also be the pick for me but not very confident in that pick."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 11, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

The MMA Guru picks Melquizael Costa because he believes Costa is better on the feet, with nasty front kicks, head kicks, and question mark kicks. He thinks Shayilan's ground game is not dominant enough to expose Costa's weaknesses, and that Shayilan's style of trading hooks and shooting double legs won't work. He notes both have lost to Steve Garcia.

"I think Malik quaz El Costa is better on the feet than shaan NM Beck and I don't think that shaan has that dominant of a ground game to expose the ground game of Malik wasel Costa"
LOSS vs Steve Garcia
KO (elbows) R2 1:01 · UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · Dec 09, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Steve Garcia 1 29 of 49 59% 41 of 66 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:46
Melquizael Costa 0 6 of 10 60% 20 of 25 2 of 10 20% 0 0 4:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Steve Garcia 0 4 of 11 36% 12 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Melquizael Costa 0 5 of 7 71% 19 of 22 2 of 9 22% 0 0 4:41
2 Steve Garcia 1 25 of 38 65% 29 of 43 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:46
Melquizael Costa 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Steve Garcia 29 of 49 59% 26 of 45 2 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 10 3 of 8 22 of 31
Melquizael Costa 6 of 10 60% 1 of 5 2 of 2 3 of 3 2 of 3 4 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Steve Garcia 4 of 11 36% 3 of 9 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 7 1 of 4 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 5 of 7 71% 0 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 3 1 of 2 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Steve Garcia 25 of 38 65% 23 of 36 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 3 2 of 4 22 of 31
Melquizael Costa 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Melquizael Costa vs. Steve Garcia
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-275), Garcia (+225)

Round 1
The predominant method of victory for these two fighters—now competing at lightweight due to the short-notice nature of their rescheduled pairing—is the knockout. Referee Chris Tognoni should don his hard hat before going out against these two sluggers. “Mean Machine” Garcia (14-5, 3-2 UFC) has performed his last six victories via strikes, while LFA vet Costa (20-6, 1-1 UFC) has earned two of his last three wins by knockout. Before the fists fly, they meet together in a sporting manner. Garcia springs forward, but he pulls back before engaging. On his second advance, Garcia throws caution to the wind, winging big punches. Costa shimmies to the side and allows Garcia to push past him, and he hooks his leg around Garcia’s and tries to drag him down to the floor. Costa elects to lift Garcia up and slam him to the mat, but “Mean Machine” moves back up to his feet quickly. Costa clings to Garcia from behind relentlessly, and Garcia tries to defend with no-look elbows. Costa knees Garcia in the backside and upper thigh as he pressures his man, and Garcia responds with elbows on the thigh. Costa whips Garcia to a knee, and Garcia considers grabbing the fence but at the last second just points at it. Costa forces his man down to a knee again, but Garcia springs up with no ill effects. Costa continues to embrace the grind from behind, shutting down any offense from Garcia and forcing him to spend energy in strange exchanges. When Costa looks to get a hook in, Garcia shucks it off. Costa peppers with knees until scooping Garcia up and dumping him down once more. Garcia powers back upright, and he wiggles and wriggles but cannot escape. Costa trips Garcia out but is unable to keep him grounded for more than a second, and he stays in this position until the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 2
Garcia comes out of his corner angrily, and he swings violently and connects with a few of his shots. Costa responds as the two engage in a mad brawl, with punches and elbows flailing in all directions. Garcia wings a left and a right, catching Costa and knocking him down to the canvas. “Mean Machine” follows him to the mat and drives down a vicious elbow, splitting Costa wide open, and Costa is in a bad way. Garcia smashes his man with fists and sharp elbows, and blood sprays around the canvas. Costa turns over and gives up his back, and Garcia snatches up a rear-naked choke. Perhaps due to the blood flow, Costa is able to slide out of the choke and turns to his back.
Garcia postures up, in full mount, and he demolishes “Melky” with three ruthless elbows. Tognoni halts the fight, with Costa out or very nearly out.
When Garcia dismounts his defeated adversary, Costa tries to take Tognoni down, and he is deep in on a single. Tognoni displays excellent takedown defense as officials flood the cage, with one very loud shouting at Costa to wake him back up. Costa realizes that he is trying to take down a referee and that the fight is over, and he surrenders.

The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Melquizael Costa R2 1:01 via KO (Elbows)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Cody picks Melquizael Costa. He notes that Costa is a volume puncher and Garcia is a knockout-or-bust fighter. Cody points out that Garcia has poor defense and gets rocked in his wins and losses. He thinks Costa's volume and durability will be key. Cody is suspicious that the line hasn't moved despite Garcia pulling out last week due to illness and moving up a weight class. He still favors Costa.

"I like Costa I'm playing Costa cost going to be high up there but it almost favors a little bit Garcia a little bit better"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Paul picks Melquizael Costa. He notes that he liked Costa last week and nothing has changed. Paul points out that Garcia has a history of missing weight and was sick last week, but now fights at lightweight without cutting weight. He thinks Garcia's power is a threat but Costa's volume and durability should win out. Paul is not taking Garcia just because of the circumstances.

"him getting sick and pulling out of a fight last week did not cause me to change my pick this week to suddenly take him so no no not taking Steve Garcia gonna stick with M Costa"
Expert Picks (4)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Angelo picks Melquizael Costa with high confidence, stating that Costa should be better everywhere. He notes Costa's creative striking, solid grappling, and incredible scrambles. His only concern is Costa's activity level, as this will be his fifth fight in 12 months, which could lead to nagging injuries or fatigue. However, Angelo is not overly concerned and expects Costa to win.

"Mel Costa. I am very confident in this pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Big Brady picks Julian Erosa as a dog, acknowledging Costa could knock him out early. He notes Costa's quick turnaround and tendency to slow down, while Erosa has great cardio and a nasty choke game. He predicts Erosa wins by second-round submission if it gets extended.

Erosa by submission, round 2
"I like a Rosa here as a dog. ... I'm going to take him to win this fight by second round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Melquizael Costa

The host notes Costa's aggressiveness and unorthodox striking can catch Erosa off guard, especially since six of Erosa's seven losses have come by knockout. He feels Costa can take advantage of Erosa's mistakes and get a finish. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds.

Costa by KO/TKO; under 2.5 rounds
"I think his just aggressiveness and unorthodox striking approach can really catch Arosa offguard."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Melquizael Costa

The Guru picks Melquizael Costa, calling him a fellow 'fraud checker' who can handle Julian Erosa's gritty style. He notes Costa's grappling looked improved against Christian Rodriguez and his kicks are very good. He worries about Erosa's upset potential but believes Costa is better and more active. He predicts a TKO or decision win.

"I'm going to have to go with Malikisel Costa. I think he's just better by far than Julian Rosa."