vs
+450 -535
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025 · Women's Strawweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales Next Fight
Age 33
Height 5' 3"
Reach 63.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 26
Height 5' 2"
Reach 63.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Elise Reed
3.41 SLpM
53.0% Str. Acc.
3.26 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
0.46 TD Avg
60.0% TD Acc.
53.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Denise Gomes
4.43 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
3.16 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
1.45 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
66.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Elise Reed
Moneyline
BetWay +450
KO/TKO
DraftKings +1400
Submission
DraftKings +2500
Decision
FanDuel +800
Denise Gomes
Moneyline
DraftKings -535
KO/TKO
FanDuel +310
Submission
BetRivers +600
Decision
FanDuel +110
Elise Reed - Fight History
LOSS vs Denise Gomes
KO R2 0:30 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Elise Reed 0 11 of 21 52% 35 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Denise Gomes 1 28 of 42 66% 69 of 86 3 of 3 100% 0 0 4:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Elise Reed 0 9 of 17 52% 33 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Denise Gomes 0 15 of 22 68% 55 of 63 3 of 3 100% 0 0 4:05
2 Elise Reed 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Denise Gomes 1 13 of 20 65% 14 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Elise Reed 11 of 21 52% 5 of 15 4 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Denise Gomes 28 of 42 66% 18 of 29 5 of 8 5 of 5 11 of 20 9 of 10 8 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Elise Reed 9 of 17 52% 5 of 13 2 of 2 2 of 2 8 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0
Denise Gomes 15 of 22 68% 8 of 13 5 of 7 2 of 2 7 of 14 8 of 8 0 of 0
2 Elise Reed 2 of 4 50% 0 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Denise Gomes 13 of 20 65% 10 of 16 0 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 6 1 of 2 8 of 12
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Angelo picks Denise Gomes, acknowledging that the odds are wide but understanding why she is the favorite. He notes that Elise Reed is a gamer and can make it competitive, but Gomes is a very good fighter who can grapple and strike. He mentions that without Jacob in Reed's corner, there is concern about her getting held against the cage. He thinks Gomes will win if she moves forward and uses pressure.

"Denise is going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Big Brady picks Denise Gomes, highlighting her power and ground-and-pound. He notes Elise Reed's huge hole in her ground game, with all four losses by finish. He predicts Gomes will hurt Reed on the feet or take her down and submit her in the second round.

Gomes by submission, round 2
"I like Denise Gomes here. I think she has a path to absolutely look every every bit of minus 550 and we'll see if she takes it, but I'll go with Denise Gomes to get a second round submission in …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Denise Gomes

The host is surprised by the wide line, noting Gomes is not a high-level grappler and doesn't often look to grapple, which has been Reed's issue. He thinks if it's a striking battle, Reed can be competitive with her taekwondo background. He leans with Gomes due to her physicality and clinch work, but says don't be surprised if Reed pulls off the upset. Official prediction is Gomes by decision.

Gomes by decision
"I'm going to lean with Gomez with her physicality and maybe some clinch work that she could grind this one out."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Denise Gomes

The Guru picks Denise Gomes confidently, calling her a -575 favorite who 'hits like a man' and has decent grappling. He thinks Elise Reed is outmatched and will be finished, predicting a TKO in the first round. He criticizes the matchmaking as a sacrificial lamb for Reed.

Gomes by TKO in round 1
"I'm going to go with Denise Gomez by KO."
WIN vs Jessica Penne
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Oct 19, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Elise Reed 0 54 of 125 43% 98 of 174 1 of 13 7% 0 0 3:16
Jessica Penne 0 117 of 188 62% 229 of 306 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Elise Reed 0 19 of 33 57% 51 of 70 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:49
Jessica Penne 0 6 of 17 35% 105 of 122 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Elise Reed 0 18 of 42 42% 26 of 50 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:27
Jessica Penne 0 44 of 70 62% 56 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
3 Elise Reed 0 17 of 50 34% 21 of 54 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 67 of 101 66% 68 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Elise Reed 54 of 125 43% 26 of 89 18 of 25 10 of 11 44 of 112 10 of 13 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 117 of 188 62% 84 of 145 18 of 19 15 of 24 110 of 181 7 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Elise Reed 19 of 33 57% 7 of 20 9 of 9 3 of 4 14 of 28 5 of 5 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 6 of 17 35% 0 of 10 2 of 2 4 of 5 5 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Elise Reed 18 of 42 42% 7 of 28 5 of 8 6 of 6 14 of 37 4 of 5 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 44 of 70 62% 31 of 50 8 of 8 5 of 12 39 of 65 5 of 5 0 of 0
3 Elise Reed 17 of 50 34% 12 of 41 4 of 8 1 of 1 16 of 47 1 of 3 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 67 of 101 66% 53 of 85 8 of 9 6 of 7 66 of 100 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Elise Reed

Angelo picks Elise Reed because he believes Jessica Penne, at 41 years old and coming off a disinterested performance, is not fully committed to fighting anymore. He notes Reed's busy striking, good cardio, and inconsistency but thinks she is the hungrier fighter. He sees value at -150 and also likes the over 2.5 rounds as a safe bet. He speculates Penne is more focused on her post-fighting career and won't have the same drive.

over 2.5 rounds
"Elise Reed wins this fight she's the pick minus 150 seems like decent value"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jessica Penne

Big Brady picks Jessica Penne by first-round submission. He highlights Reed's terrible ground game, with four submission losses, and Penne's BJJ black belt. He notes Penne is 41 and coming off a layoff, but if she gets the fight to the mat, she will submit Reed. He is surprised Reed is favored.

first round submission
"I'll take the dog here and Jessica pen to get the fight down to the ground and get a sub in the first round so Jessica pen a first round submission"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 18, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Elise Reed

Connor picks Reed, though he doesn't feel good about it. He notes that Reed has natural power and can crack, and that she has been able to win fights despite her flaws. He acknowledges that Reed often stops fighting after hurting opponents, but thinks she might be able to knock Penne out or do enough to win.

"I think I would pick Reed in this one."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 21, 2026 (fight day)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Elise Reed

Reed is a striker and can keep the fight upright enough to batter Penne and win on the scorecards. However, Penne winning by submission at +500 is a tempting sprinkle, as it could take just one back take or takedown for Penne to utilize her jiu-jitsu advantage. The official prediction is Reed by decision.

Penne by submission at +500 (sprinkle)
"I do lean with the striker as I do think Reed can keep this fight upright enough for her to batter a pen and win this fight on the scorecards although a pen to win by submission at plus 500 …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 15, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jessica Penne

The Guru initially does not want to pick Jessica Penne due to her age (41) and recent losses, but after considering that Elise Reed is 'garbage' and Penne is taller and rangier, he decides to take the underdog. He admits he doesn't normally check odds beforehand but notes Penne is an underdog and goes with her.

"I'm gonna go with Jessica pen we move on"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 18, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jessica Penne

Zane picks Penne because he believes Reed will not be consistent enough to keep Penne at range. He notes that Reed has a tendency to stop fighting after landing a big shot, and that Penne is hittable and predictable, but Reed doesn't have the footwork to stay away. He thinks Penne will eventually tangle up with Reed and get the grappling exchange she wants.

Penne opened at +137, now +152; Reed opened at -153, now -172. Zane says you should not be betting on Elise Reed.
"I think I will take Penne actually."
LOSS vs Loopy Godinez
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 3:38 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · Sep 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Loopy Godinez 1 21 of 31 67% 37 of 51 5 of 5 100% 6 0 6:29
Elise Reed 0 3 of 13 23% 34 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Loopy Godinez 1 6 of 11 54% 14 of 20 2 of 2 100% 5 0 3:39
Elise Reed 0 1 of 4 25% 5 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
2 Loopy Godinez 0 15 of 20 75% 23 of 31 3 of 3 100% 1 0 2:50
Elise Reed 0 2 of 9 22% 29 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Loopy Godinez 21 of 31 67% 15 of 25 4 of 4 2 of 2 15 of 24 3 of 3 3 of 4
Elise Reed 3 of 13 23% 0 of 6 2 of 3 1 of 4 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Loopy Godinez 6 of 11 54% 3 of 8 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0
Elise Reed 1 of 4 25% 0 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Loopy Godinez 15 of 20 75% 12 of 17 2 of 2 1 of 1 10 of 14 2 of 2 3 of 4
Elise Reed 2 of 9 22% 0 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 2 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Angelo picks Lupita Godinez as the better fighter, citing her size, strength, and wrestling. He acknowledges her inconsistency and notes that the version that fought Cynthia Calvillo would lose to Elise Reed. He believes Godinez should win but considers the odds too wide to bet due to her unreliability.

"loopy is going to be bigger stronger the better fighter more talented she's training at a better team loopy should win this fight but these odds are far too wide for me to spend some money"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Big Brady picks Godinez but expresses concern about her fight IQ and recent reluctance to wrestle. He notes that if Godinez wrestles, she should dominate easily, as Reed has poor ground game and takedown defense. However, if Godinez strikes, the fight could be closer. He predicts Godinez will eventually take the fight to the mat and submit Reed in the second round.

second round submission
"I will take Lupi godinez to go out there hopefully fight smart get the fight down to the mat and I think she finishes Elise read in the second round via submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Cody picks Godinez, emphasizing her size, strength, and wrestling advantage. He notes Reed's poor takedown defense and Godinez's ability to win even if she strikes. He expects Godinez to control the fight and possibly get a submission, but thinks a decision is also likely.

Godinez by submission plus 375 (one book); Godinez over 1.5 takedowns
"I think she could win the fight even if she makes all of the bad calls."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Daniel Levi is confident in Lupita Godinez, citing her wrestling advantage as Elise Reed has been taken down in every UFC fight. He notes Godinez's high output in her last fight and believes she can win on the feet as well, but the path of least resistance is through takedowns. Levi expects Godinez to dominate and sees this as a showcase for her improved skills.

"I think that loopy has all the tools to win this fight not just in the wrestling"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Godinez has a tremendous wrestling advantage over Reed, who has been submitted in losses to grapplers. Godinez's striking is underrated, but she should focus on takedowns and top control. Reed alternates wins and losses and is coming off a win, so she's due for a loss. I expect Godinez to drag the fight to the ground and finish inside the distance.

"I really like godinez to go out there drag this fight to the ground and do that damage from on top and win this fight inside the distance"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Paul picks Godinez confidently, noting she can win anywhere but should wrestle. He mentions her inconsistency in game plans but believes she is a massive step up in competition for Reed. He sees a first-round submission as very possible if she wrestles.

Godinez by submission plus 375 (one book); Godinez over 1.5 takedowns
"lupy is clearly the pick it's just how do I approach it from a props perspective."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

The MMA Guru picks Lupita Godinez over Elise Reed, calling it a mismatch. He notes Godinez's wins over better competition like Emily Ducote and Cynthia Calvillo, while Reed's recent win was over Jin Yu Frey. He believes Godinez's boxing is crisper and she mixes in takedowns better, making her more versatile.

"I'm going with Lupita godinez this seems like a bit of a mismatch to me"
WIN vs Jinh Yu Frey
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Elise Reed 0 53 of 120 44% 94 of 174 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:29
Jinh Yu Frey 0 28 of 91 30% 42 of 114 3 of 7 42% 0 0 4:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Elise Reed 0 14 of 32 43% 36 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Jinh Yu Frey 0 11 of 26 42% 16 of 34 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:52
2 Elise Reed 0 19 of 33 57% 31 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Jinh Yu Frey 0 7 of 27 25% 12 of 35 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:56
3 Elise Reed 0 20 of 55 36% 27 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:42
Jinh Yu Frey 0 10 of 38 26% 14 of 45 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Elise Reed 53 of 120 44% 16 of 65 21 of 36 16 of 19 45 of 111 8 of 9 0 of 0
Jinh Yu Frey 28 of 91 30% 15 of 68 4 of 13 9 of 10 26 of 84 2 of 4 0 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Elise Reed 14 of 32 43% 4 of 16 6 of 11 4 of 5 11 of 29 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jinh Yu Frey 11 of 26 42% 9 of 19 0 of 5 2 of 2 10 of 23 1 of 2 0 of 1
2 Elise Reed 19 of 33 57% 6 of 17 5 of 7 8 of 9 17 of 31 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jinh Yu Frey 7 of 27 25% 1 of 19 2 of 4 4 of 4 7 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 2
3 Elise Reed 20 of 55 36% 6 of 32 10 of 18 4 of 5 17 of 51 3 of 4 0 of 0
Jinh Yu Frey 10 of 38 26% 5 of 30 2 of 4 3 of 4 9 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jinh Yu Frey

Angelo has a very slight lean to Frey, thinking she can slow down Reed's pace by using cage control and takedowns. He is concerned about Frey's age (38) and recent knockout loss, but believes her experience and grappling can neutralize Reed's tenacity. He notes Reed is tough and hits hard but is inconsistent. Angelo is not spending money on this fight.

"very incredibly slight lean to fry not spending any money here I think she can slow that pace down"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Elise Reed

Cody picks Reed, citing her improvements fight to fight. He notes Reed's striking volume and that she has shown wrestling improvements in some fights. Cody acknowledges Reed's inconsistency but thinks Frey's lack of wrestling and recent knockout loss are concerns. He picks Reed but feels awful about it.

Over 0.5 takedowns for Elise Reed on PrizePicks
"I'm gonna go with Elise read and I know man I feel awful about it"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2023 (fight day)
Elise Reed

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Frey seems to hate fighting and has become a low-output, hesitant fighter. He notes that Reed has improved her combination striking and carries real power, especially with her body kicks and straight right. Connor believes that once Reed lands cleanly, Frey's confidence will shatter, leading to a finish or a clear decision for Reed.

"Frayed does not seem to like to fight and at least read lands really hard when she does"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jinh Yu Frey

Daniel picks Frey via a coin flip, but notes that Frey has a grappling advantage and has shown she will wrestle when needed. He sees Reed as having been finished by fighters who don't usually finish, and Frey's black belt could be the difference. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation.

"heads is gonna be read and Tails is going to be fry ... we got a tail so I said tails is fried right so I'm gonna go with a fry"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Elise Reed

Jacob picks Elise Reed, citing her power and the matchup being tailor-made for her. He thinks Frey is not the pressure fighter who can get in Reed's face, especially coming off a knockout loss. Jacob believes Reed will pick Frey apart from distance and hurt her. He plans to bet on Reed live or closer to the fight. He also likes Reed inside the distance at -155.

Reed inside distance at -155.
"I just think that this is almost a tailor-made perfect Fight For Elise Reed somebody that's going to be in front of her not a lot of head movement and isn't gonna pressure her"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Elise Reed

Reed is a striker with deceptive power and good footwork. She can keep the fight upright and land damaging blows. Frey is a BJJ brown belt who will look for takedowns and submissions. Reed's best path is to avoid the ground and find a knockout, but confidence is low. The under 2.5 rounds is a better bet.

under 2.5 rounds +200
"I'm going to go with the striker here in Elise read that I'm hoping that her footwork her movement and the Damage that she can accrue on the feet will keep Jin you fry on the outside"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jinh Yu Frey

Paul picks Frey, noting that Reed has been inconsistent and that Frey is a veteran. He mentions Reed's struggles when opponents have a wrestling advantage, but he's not sure who has that edge. Paul is not confident and says he won't bet this fight, but he picks Frey.

"genuine Frey will be getting my pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 29, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Elise Reed

The MMA Guru confidently picks Elise Reed, calling it a no-brainer. He argues that Jinh Yu Frey is 38, coming off a KO loss, and should have lost to Vanessa Demopoulos, who he considers awful. He believes Reed will outbox Frey on the feet, as Frey lacks the grappling to take Reed down. He also notes Reed's win over Cory McKenna, who has good takedowns, as evidence of Reed's striking ability.

"I'm going with Elise Reed... I think she's much better than Jin you Frey"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2023 (fight day)
Elise Reed

Zane picks Reed confidently, citing Frey's severe lack of output and apparent anxiety in fights. He notes that Frey has all the technical tools but cannot pull the trigger, while Reed has developed into a busier boxer who lands hard shots. Reed's power and willingness to engage should overwhelm Frey, who tends to freeze and do nothing for long stretches. Zane believes Reed's aggression and striking will be decisive.

"I'll pick a genufrey ever again. Yeah, I mean she's done"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 0:44 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Loma Lookboonmee 0 17 of 27 62% 22 of 34 2 of 3 66% 1 0 0:36
Elise Reed 0 17 of 29 58% 41 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Loma Lookboonmee 0 16 of 25 64% 20 of 31 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:13
Elise Reed 0 17 of 28 60% 41 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:59
2 Loma Lookboonmee 0 1 of 2 50% 2 of 3 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:23
Elise Reed 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Loma Lookboonmee 17 of 27 62% 5 of 8 6 of 9 6 of 10 12 of 20 4 of 5 1 of 2
Elise Reed 17 of 29 58% 12 of 23 1 of 2 4 of 4 7 of 18 5 of 6 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Loma Lookboonmee 16 of 25 64% 5 of 8 6 of 8 5 of 9 11 of 18 4 of 5 1 of 2
Elise Reed 17 of 28 60% 12 of 22 1 of 2 4 of 4 7 of 17 5 of 6 5 of 5
2 Loma Lookboonmee 1 of 2 50% 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Elise Reed 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Konklak Suphisara vs. Elise Reed
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Suphisara (-265), Reed (+225)

Round 1
The lone women’s match of the evening comes at 115 pounds, as muay thai aficionado Konklak Suphisara (7-3, 4-2 UFC) – known as “Loma Lookboonmee” in her Thai fighting name – battles New Jersey’s Reed (6-2, 2-2 UFC). The two have reached the scorecards in 12 of their combined 18 pro bouts, so referee Steve Perceval is ready for the long haul should he be needed for 15 full minutes. The ladies touch ‘em up, and Suphisara is the initial aggressor as she winds up with a nasty calf kick. She throws one with the other leg, and ducks back to dodge a spinning wheel kick from the American. The two trade hands in the middle of the cage, and Reed appears to be her opponent to the punch in one such exchange. The Thai fires off another low kick, and she fires off a kick to the body when Reed misses when her own flashy kick attempt. Reed gives one inside leg kick back, and Suphisara is quick to give it back. Suphisara chips away at the lead leg on the inside and out, working Reed over and evading most of the offense that comes back at her. Suphisara slips a jab and counters with an overhand right to stop Reed in her tracks, and Reed takes a quick count of her teeth and backs off. Significant welting has begun to develop on the lower thigh of Reed less than three minutes into the fight, but she is no worse for wear as she surges into action to throw hands. The offense leads Reed to push Suphisara to the wall, and Suphisara welcomes it as she knees her in the body. The two women jockey for position and look to take the other down from up close, and Suphisara throws Reed to the mat. Reed scrambles to take top position, where she sits on top in three-quarter mount as her nose starts to pour blood on her opponent. Reed manages to keep top position despite Suphisara bucking and moving, and she sits up and punches Reed in the nose while she holds on until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Suphisara
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Reed
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Reed

Round 2
The two women start off throwing kicks, and they close in on one another. Suphisara ducks a right hand to circle around to the back, and she drags the American down to the canvas. “Loma Lookboonmee” quickly takes the back and gets her hooks in, and in an instant,
she starts fishing for a rear-naked choke. Reed struggles to defend the choke, gripping the arm beneath her throat but unable to loosen the vice-like grip that the Thai holds. Suphisara squeezes with all her might, and after a few seconds, she forces Reed to tap out to earn her first career submission
– all while becoming the first fighter to ever submit Reed. This is a big win for Suphisara, who notches her first finish since August 2018 while scoring the first stoppage of the evening with style points.

The Official Result
Konklak Suphisara def. Elise Reed R2 0:44 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

Angelo picks Loma Lookboonmee, praising her Muay Thai striking and improved wrestling. He notes that her two UFC losses were to tough veterans, and she should win both striking and takedown exchanges against Elise Reed. He plans to bet on Loma's takedown lines when they drop, expecting her to out-grapple Reed.

Bet on Loma takedown lines when available
"Loma was the pick my bet is probably going to be on the takedown lines when those drop"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

Big Brady likes Loma everywhere: at distance, in the clinch, and on the mat. He highlights Loma's Muay Thai in the clinch and her ground-and-pound elbows. He expects Loma to get the fight down and finish Reed by TKO in the second or third round, citing Reed's poor grappling defense.

second round TKO
"give me Loma second round TKO"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

Cody picks Lookboonmee, noting her Muay Thai clinch and improved wrestling. He thinks she can close the distance and wear on Reed with short elbows and knees. He sees Reed as a live underdog due to her reach and range striking, but ultimately thinks Lookboonmee grinds out a decision.

"I'm gonna take Loma I feel like Elise Reed looks like one of the decent underdogs on this card"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

Connor picks Lookboonmee, stating that Reed's best hope is to overwhelm opponents with speed or power early, but Lookboonmee is calm and has been hurt before without falling apart. He notes that Lookboonmee's striking experience will benefit her, and that Reed's singular dangerous moments are not enough to put Lookboonmee away.

"I think that the Reed's pace down the stretch, especially is perfect for Loma."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

Lookboonmee's leg kicks and clinch elbows will be effective against Reed's Taekwondo blitzes. Reed has shown good defensive grappling and strength, which could stifle Lookboonmee's takedowns. Lookboonmee's grappling improvements allow her to stay calm in bad positions. Reed is a live underdog who has pulled off upsets before. Lookboonmee should outpoint Reed over three rounds, but confidence is not high due to Reed's toughness and strength.

"I do lean Loma in this fight I do think she wins this fight but I don't have a tremendous amount of confidence in it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

Paul is confident Lookboonmee wins, citing her grappling advantage and ability to take down opponents at will. He notes she has takedowns against Denise Gomes and Sam Hughes. He thinks she can win on the feet with Muay Thai but will likely use wrestling to control the fight. He likes the over on her takedowns on PrizePicks.

Lookboonmee over 2 takedowns on PrizePicks
"I think Loma should absolutely roll here and a lot of her fights where she has a grappling Advantage she's really landed takedowns"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

The MMA Guru picks Loma Lookboonmee over Elise Reed, calling it a no-brainer. He notes Lookboonmee's close losses to Angela Hill and Lupita Godinez, and her dominant wins over lower-level fighters. He expects a dominant 30-27 decision, as Reed was exposed on the ground by Sam Hughes.

decision 30-27
"I'm gonna be going with Loma look boom I think she gets this one done via decision over Elise read dominantly 30 27"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

Zane picks Lookboonmee, noting that Reed has no connective tissue in her game and can be held on the fence and taken down easily. He thinks Lookboonmee's clinch and takedowns will be effective, and that Reed's pace down the stretch is perfect for Lookboonmee's measured striking pace. Zane acknowledges that Lookboonmee's fights are often close but believes she has the edge.

"I got to take Luke Boom Me here. Like, we can hurt her and around, can land some good one twos every now and then. But if she doesn't put Luke Boom Me away, there's going to be a lot …"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Sep 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Elise Reed 0 45 of 78 57% 63 of 96 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:42
Melissa Martinez 1 38 of 70 54% 65 of 99 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Elise Reed 0 16 of 28 57% 21 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:06
Melissa Martinez 1 9 of 23 39% 25 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
2 Elise Reed 0 19 of 31 61% 23 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Melissa Martinez 0 13 of 24 54% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
3 Elise Reed 0 10 of 19 52% 19 of 28 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:54
Melissa Martinez 0 16 of 23 69% 25 of 32 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Elise Reed 45 of 78 57% 10 of 38 17 of 21 18 of 19 37 of 67 6 of 8 2 of 3
Melissa Martinez 38 of 70 54% 15 of 44 17 of 19 6 of 7 20 of 51 12 of 13 6 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Elise Reed 16 of 28 57% 5 of 14 6 of 9 5 of 5 15 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
Melissa Martinez 9 of 23 39% 2 of 16 5 of 5 2 of 2 7 of 21 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Elise Reed 19 of 31 61% 4 of 15 8 of 9 7 of 7 16 of 26 3 of 5 0 of 0
Melissa Martinez 13 of 24 54% 5 of 13 6 of 8 2 of 3 9 of 19 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Elise Reed 10 of 19 52% 1 of 9 3 of 3 6 of 7 6 of 14 2 of 2 2 of 3
Melissa Martinez 16 of 23 69% 8 of 15 6 of 6 2 of 2 4 of 11 7 of 7 5 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Melissa Martinez

Angelo picks Melissa Martinez, citing her legitimate power, solid takedown defense, and clinch throws. He notes Elise Reed is active but has lost via grappling, and while Reed is technical, Martinez's toughness and power should prevail. However, he is not placing a moneyline bet because Martinez is making her UFC debut.

no moneyline bet due to UFC debut
"I like Melissa Martinez here I think she's got legit power on her feet she's got solid takedown defense and she does have some clinch throws if she needs them."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Elise Reed

Big Brady admits he is usually an Elise Reed hater due to her poor takedown defense and ground game, but notes that Melissa Martinez does not wrestle, so Reed's weakness won't be exploited. He highlights Martinez's three-year layoff and ring rust concerns, while Reed has fought better competition. He calls it a super close fight and takes the dog Reed by decision.

"I'm gonna take the dog here and Elise Reed to get it done I think it's going to be a very very close and competitive fight."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Elise Reed

Cody leans towards Elise Reed as a dog, noting that Martinez has not fought in three years and that her grappling looked weak. He believes if it's a stand-up fight, it's 50-50, so he takes the underdog. However, he is not betting it and says there are better spots.

"i'm leaning towards the underdog elise reed here i don't think i'm gonna bet this there's a lot of other spots on the card that i feel a lot more passionate about"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Melissa Martinez

Daniel Levi picks Melissa Martinez but with low confidence. He notes that Reed has UFC experience and decent standup, but Martinez has been out since 2019 and is unproven. He expects a standup fight and predicts Martinez wins a controversial split decision.

"I'm gonna go with melissa martinez to win a controversial split decision here."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Elise Reed

Jacob disagrees, picking Elise Reed as the more technical striker. He thinks Martinez is raw with looping shots and no head movement, while Reed has volume, speed, and technical boxing. He believes if it stays a striking match, Reed's technicality will land more. However, he admits if it becomes a brawl, Martinez's toughness wins, and he might sprinkle a small bet on Reed.

might sprinkle a little on Reed moneyline
"I 100 believe in my mind that Elise Reed is the more technical striker in this matchup and I just think that her technicality is going to land those shots over Melissa."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Sep 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Melissa Martinez

The host picks Melissa Martinez but is hesitant due to her being a UFC newcomer and the line being somewhat accurate. He expects Martinez to be faster, more dynamic, and carry more power, likely winning a decision. He notes both women are strikers and doesn't expect grappling.

"I'll go Martinez but in terms of actually playing her here... I think the line is accurate but I still want to see what she looks like on the big stage."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Melissa Martinez

Paul leans towards Melissa Martinez, noting her kickboxing background and that she has been active in kickboxing. He believes she will use leg kicks to slow Reed's movement. However, he says the price is not good and it's probably a stay-away fight.

"i'm lean towards melissa martinez but the price is not particularly good it's probably more of a stay away fight if anything"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2022 (fight day)
Melissa Martinez

The MMA Guru picks Melissa Martinez to win by decision, specifically 29-28. He believes Martinez will win the first two rounds with better striking and takedowns, possibly getting submission attempts, while Elise Reed's experience may help her take the third round. He notes that women's fights often go to decision.

decision 29-28
"I'm gonna go with Melissa Martinez and I'm going to pick her to win by decision"
LOSS vs Sam Hughes
TKO (elbow and punches) R3 3:52 · UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · May 21, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sam Hughes 0 17 of 41 41% 70 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Elise Reed 0 43 of 65 66% 130 of 161 4 of 7 57% 0 0 11:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sam Hughes 0 16 of 35 45% 57 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Elise Reed 0 15 of 31 48% 23 of 41 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:38
2 Sam Hughes 0 1 of 6 16% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Elise Reed 0 13 of 15 86% 55 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:49
3 Sam Hughes 0 0 of 0 --- 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Elise Reed 0 15 of 19 78% 52 of 60 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sam Hughes 17 of 41 41% 10 of 34 7 of 7 0 of 0 13 of 37 4 of 4 0 of 0
Elise Reed 43 of 65 66% 33 of 51 6 of 10 4 of 4 7 of 19 6 of 10 30 of 36
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sam Hughes 16 of 35 45% 9 of 28 7 of 7 0 of 0 12 of 31 4 of 4 0 of 0
Elise Reed 15 of 31 48% 9 of 21 4 of 8 2 of 2 6 of 17 6 of 10 3 of 4
2 Sam Hughes 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Elise Reed 13 of 15 86% 10 of 12 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 13 of 15
3 Sam Hughes 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Elise Reed 15 of 19 78% 14 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 14 of 17
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

Angelo picks Sam Hughes based on her grappling performance in her last fight, where she showcased takedowns and control time. He notes that Elise Reed was taken down four times in two fights, making the takedown the difference. However, he acknowledges it's a close fight and that Elise Reed is better than people think. He is hesitant because both women are coming off career-saving wins.

"if sam does what she did in her last fight i think she wins this fight forward pressure high volume and takedowns i'm gonna go sam hughes here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Elise Reed

Big Brady picks Elise Reed because she is the better striker with improved takedown defense. He notes Sam Hughes is a walking punching bag with poor striking defense, and Reed should win on the feet. He predicts a decision win for Reed but says he is not betting on this fight.

"give me a lease read at least read by decision there's no way i'm betting on this fight but i'll take read by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Elise Reed

Cody picks Reed confidently, citing her superior striking, footwork, and cardio. He notes Hughes' lack of offense and tendency to rely on opponents gassing. He believes Reed will outpoint Hughes from range and avoid takedowns, winning a decision.

"i actually don't mind elise reed and minus 165 like okay i think there's some there's some other fights on this card i am way more on the fence about that have worse price tag so i'm willing to give …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 21, 2022 (fight day)
Sam Hughes

The host picks Sam Hughes as his free pick of the night at +145. He believes Hughes's path to victory involves grappling, either takedowns or control time against the cage. He expects Hughes to implement her grappling and grind out a win. He is confident enough to bet one unit on her.

over 2.5 rounds (part of totals parlay)
"my free pick is sam hughes one unit plus 145"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Elise Reed

Paul agrees with Cody, saying Reed's kicking game and cardio should be too much for Hughes. He notes Hughes' only win came against a gassed opponent and that Reed won't tire. He is confident in Reed.

"i like where your head's at on this card i like where your head's at this time around i think you're gonna be good"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Elise Reed

The MMA Guru believes Elise Reed is better on the feet and can mitigate damage on the ground, working her way back up. He thinks Sam Hughes will get takedowns but the damage from Reed's striking will be too much. He predicts a razor close 29-28 decision for Reed.

"i think she's better than sam hughes i think she's better on the fee i think even when she does get taken down she doesn't really get dominated on the ground"
WIN vs Cory McKenna
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · Mar 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Elise Reed 0 60 of 160 37% 99 of 216 3 of 7 42% 0 0 3:46
Cory McKenna 0 76 of 140 54% 121 of 193 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Elise Reed 0 15 of 48 31% 27 of 62 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:27
Cory McKenna 0 26 of 44 59% 42 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Elise Reed 0 27 of 74 36% 28 of 75 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:00
Cory McKenna 0 35 of 64 54% 36 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
3 Elise Reed 0 18 of 38 47% 44 of 79 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:19
Cory McKenna 0 15 of 32 46% 43 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Elise Reed 60 of 160 37% 53 of 150 3 of 4 4 of 6 48 of 146 5 of 6 7 of 8
Cory McKenna 76 of 140 54% 44 of 98 7 of 10 25 of 32 70 of 131 3 of 5 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Elise Reed 15 of 48 31% 11 of 44 3 of 3 1 of 1 11 of 43 1 of 1 3 of 4
Cory McKenna 26 of 44 59% 17 of 31 3 of 5 6 of 8 25 of 43 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Elise Reed 27 of 74 36% 25 of 71 0 of 0 2 of 3 26 of 72 1 of 2 0 of 0
Cory McKenna 35 of 64 54% 16 of 43 2 of 3 17 of 18 33 of 61 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Elise Reed 18 of 38 47% 17 of 35 0 of 1 1 of 2 11 of 31 3 of 3 4 of 4
Cory McKenna 15 of 32 46% 11 of 24 2 of 2 2 of 6 12 of 27 1 of 2 2 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Cory McKenna

Angelo picks Cory McKenna, citing her well-rounded game and willingness to work takedowns as the difference. He notes that Elise Reed has real power but McKenna is very tough and busy. He warns that McKenna is only 22 and this is her biggest fight, so she might freeze, but he still likes her to win. He says the odds are far too wide.

odds comment: odds are far too wide
"i like corey to win but she's only 22 and this is the biggest fight of her life so hopefully she doesn't freeze up under the big lights"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Cory McKenna

Big Brady picks Cory McKenna to win by second-round submission. He is impressed with McKenna's wrestling and grappling, noting she has been grappling since a young age and trains at Team Alpha Male. He believes McKenna is levels above Elise Reed on the ground and will get the fight down and submit her. Brady acknowledges Reed may have a power advantage on the feet but thinks McKenna's ground game will be decisive.

second round submission
"gave me corey mckenna to win by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Cory McKenna

Cody picks McKenna, citing her pressure and grappling advantage. He thinks Reed's kicking game will be nullified by McKenna's clinch and takedowns. He notes Reed's poor takedown defense and believes McKenna will win by decision or submission.

"corey mckenna this is a favorable match up stylistically and i think she's a legitimate prospect"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Mar 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Cory McKenna

Daniel Levi leans toward Cory McKenna but is not confident due to red flags: McKenna's 58-inch reach, concussion issues, and both fighters' inexperience. He believes McKenna has an edge on the ground, but the price is too high to lay. He calls it a pass or dog situation, noting that Elise Reed has a striking advantage if it stays standing. Levi does not provide a strong pick.

"i do lean with the favorite cory mckenna but you're not gonna catch me dead uh laying a price like that on her"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Cory McKenna

McKenna's wrestling is slightly overrated; she may land takedowns but struggle to control Reed on the ground. Reed has a striking advantage with her taekwondo background, moving in and out well and landing big shots. McKenna's durability and the hometown crowd could sway judges, but Reed's ability to get back to her feet and damage opponents makes this closer than the line suggests. I'm picking McKenna via decision, but I might take a small poke on Reed at plus money.

Possible bet on Elise Reed at +200; McKenna via decision
"I am going to pick her to win this fight but by no means am I saying to go out there and bet her as a minus 250 favorite."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Cory McKenna

Paul picks McKenna, noting he has already parlayed her. He emphasizes her pressure and wrestling, and thinks Reed's lack of strength and grappling will be exposed. He believes McKenna's game plan is clear: pressure and takedowns.

parlayed cory mckenna
"i have already parlayed cory corey mckenna"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Elise Reed

The Guru picks Elise Reed as a big underdog, arguing she is more technical on the feet and has good takedown defense. He dismisses her loss to Ciara Eubanks as a short-notice fight up two weight classes. He criticizes Cory McKenna's close decisions and believes Reed's 'menstrual rage' gives her an edge. He predicts a split decision win.

split decision
"i'm gonna go the least read here over corey mckenna as a big underdog... she's got that menstrual rage"
Denise Gomes - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Nov 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tecia Pennington 0 58 of 125 46% 73 of 144 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:32
Denise Gomes 0 53 of 138 38% 75 of 169 3 of 10 30% 0 1 3:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tecia Pennington 0 22 of 51 43% 34 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Denise Gomes 0 25 of 61 40% 26 of 62 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:10
2 Tecia Pennington 0 27 of 56 48% 29 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Denise Gomes 0 19 of 54 35% 22 of 58 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:06
3 Tecia Pennington 0 9 of 18 50% 10 of 21 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
Denise Gomes 0 9 of 23 39% 27 of 49 2 of 3 66% 0 1 3:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tecia Pennington 58 of 125 46% 15 of 56 9 of 19 34 of 50 58 of 118 0 of 7 0 of 0
Denise Gomes 53 of 138 38% 19 of 86 15 of 29 19 of 23 48 of 129 2 of 5 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tecia Pennington 22 of 51 43% 7 of 21 4 of 12 11 of 18 22 of 50 0 of 1 0 of 0
Denise Gomes 25 of 61 40% 11 of 37 6 of 14 8 of 10 24 of 58 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Tecia Pennington 27 of 56 48% 6 of 27 4 of 5 17 of 24 27 of 52 0 of 4 0 of 0
Denise Gomes 19 of 54 35% 5 of 34 5 of 9 9 of 11 19 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Tecia Pennington 9 of 18 50% 2 of 8 1 of 2 6 of 8 9 of 16 0 of 2 0 of 0
Denise Gomes 9 of 23 39% 3 of 15 4 of 6 2 of 2 5 of 17 1 of 2 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Angelo is confident in Tecia Pennington as an underdog, calling her the best underdog on the card. He highlights her speed, durability, well-roundedness, and high fight IQ. He disagrees with the nearly 2-to-1 odds favoring Denise Gomes, arguing that Tecia is the more technical and experienced fighter. He plans to hammer a plus 3.5 bet on Tecia.

Tecia Pennington plus 3.5 rounds (spread bet)
"Anytime I see Tecia as a dog, I drool a little bit. ... I'm going to hammer a plus three and a half bet on Tecia Torres."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 7, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Denise Gomes

Big Brady favors Gomes due to her youth, power, and grappling upside, though he thinks the line might be a bit wide. He acknowledges Pennington is still fighting at a high level, citing her close decision against champion Mackenzie Dern. He expects a competitive fight that goes to a close decision, with Gomes landing the bigger shots and getting her hand raised.

decision
"I think Gomes lands the bigger shots, has the bigger moments, and gets her hand raised on the scorecards."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Cody picks Pennington as a dog, citing her experience and ability to outwork opponents. He thinks Gomes' wrestling is not good enough to keep Pennington down, and Pennington can win a close decision.

"I am going to take Tisha, man."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Lucrative James leans towards Denise Gomes, citing her youth, power, and physicality. He acknowledges Tecia Pennington's experience and volume but believes Gomes' finishing upside and strength will be decisive. He is not confident due to Pennington's high level and the price, but picks Gomes for the win.

"I have to pick Gomez. I don't know. Like, I feel like she's going to be like minus 250, - 300, maybe - 220. And it just doesn't intrigue me at those prices."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

The host is a bit unsure but leans toward Gomes due to her power, expecting her to land more significant strikes. Pennington may have volume and takedown attempts, but Gomes should nullify most of that and win on the scorecards.

"This one has me a little bit scratching my head, but I think that the power of Gomez should allow her to land more significant strikes against Pennington."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Paul picks Pennington, expecting a razor-thin split decision. He notes Pennington's takedown defense and striking volume, and thinks Gomes' wrestling is overrated.

"Tisha Pennington by split decision razor thin."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

The Guru picks Denise Gomes over Tecia Pennington. He believes Gomes will win via big moments and knockdowns, even if Pennington outlands her. He cites Pennington's tendency to lose close decisions due to lack of power, and Gomes's youth and size advantage. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Gomes.

fight goes to decision
"I'm going to go with Denise Gomez getting this one done. Big moments."
WIN vs Elise Reed
KO R2 0:30 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Elise Reed 0 11 of 21 52% 35 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Denise Gomes 1 28 of 42 66% 69 of 86 3 of 3 100% 0 0 4:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Elise Reed 0 9 of 17 52% 33 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Denise Gomes 0 15 of 22 68% 55 of 63 3 of 3 100% 0 0 4:05
2 Elise Reed 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Denise Gomes 1 13 of 20 65% 14 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Elise Reed 11 of 21 52% 5 of 15 4 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Denise Gomes 28 of 42 66% 18 of 29 5 of 8 5 of 5 11 of 20 9 of 10 8 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Elise Reed 9 of 17 52% 5 of 13 2 of 2 2 of 2 8 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0
Denise Gomes 15 of 22 68% 8 of 13 5 of 7 2 of 2 7 of 14 8 of 8 0 of 0
2 Elise Reed 2 of 4 50% 0 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Denise Gomes 13 of 20 65% 10 of 16 0 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 6 1 of 2 8 of 12
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Angelo picks Denise Gomes, acknowledging that the odds are wide but understanding why she is the favorite. He notes that Elise Reed is a gamer and can make it competitive, but Gomes is a very good fighter who can grapple and strike. He mentions that without Jacob in Reed's corner, there is concern about her getting held against the cage. He thinks Gomes will win if she moves forward and uses pressure.

"Denise is going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Big Brady picks Denise Gomes, highlighting her power and ground-and-pound. He notes Elise Reed's huge hole in her ground game, with all four losses by finish. He predicts Gomes will hurt Reed on the feet or take her down and submit her in the second round.

Gomes by submission, round 2
"I like Denise Gomes here. I think she has a path to absolutely look every every bit of minus 550 and we'll see if she takes it, but I'll go with Denise Gomes to get a second round submission in …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Denise Gomes

The host is surprised by the wide line, noting Gomes is not a high-level grappler and doesn't often look to grapple, which has been Reed's issue. He thinks if it's a striking battle, Reed can be competitive with her taekwondo background. He leans with Gomes due to her physicality and clinch work, but says don't be surprised if Reed pulls off the upset. Official prediction is Gomes by decision.

Gomes by decision
"I'm going to lean with Gomez with her physicality and maybe some clinch work that she could grind this one out."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Denise Gomes

The Guru picks Denise Gomes confidently, calling her a -575 favorite who 'hits like a man' and has decent grappling. He thinks Elise Reed is outmatched and will be finished, predicting a TKO in the first round. He criticizes the matchmaking as a sacrificial lamb for Reed.

Gomes by TKO in round 1
"I'm going to go with Denise Gomez by KO."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · Nov 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Denise Gomes 0 46 of 98 46% 61 of 115 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:02
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 73 of 144 50% 91 of 166 0 of 3 0% 1 0 5:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Denise Gomes 0 7 of 16 43% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 22 of 36 61% 32 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:11
2 Denise Gomes 0 13 of 31 41% 21 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 23 of 45 51% 28 of 52 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:15
3 Denise Gomes 0 26 of 51 50% 29 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 28 of 63 44% 31 of 68 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Denise Gomes 46 of 98 46% 16 of 57 19 of 24 11 of 17 39 of 89 7 of 9 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 73 of 144 50% 30 of 85 33 of 44 10 of 15 53 of 115 20 of 28 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Denise Gomes 7 of 16 43% 0 of 5 5 of 5 2 of 6 4 of 12 3 of 4 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 22 of 36 61% 8 of 17 12 of 15 2 of 4 12 of 25 10 of 11 0 of 0
2 Denise Gomes 13 of 31 41% 5 of 19 4 of 6 4 of 6 12 of 29 1 of 2 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 23 of 45 51% 9 of 24 9 of 15 5 of 6 18 of 36 5 of 9 0 of 0
3 Denise Gomes 26 of 51 50% 11 of 33 10 of 13 5 of 5 23 of 48 3 of 3 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 28 of 63 44% 13 of 44 12 of 14 3 of 5 23 of 54 5 of 8 0 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Big Brady sees Gomes as much younger, more powerful, and with grappling upside. He believes she can win on the feet or via takedowns. Despite the -500 line, he thinks Gomes gets her hand raised, likely by decision.

Gomes by decision
"give me GES here minus 500 it's absolutely ridiculous but at the end of the day I think she gets her hand raised and I think it's by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Cody disagrees with Paul, arguing that Kowalkiewicz's wrestling is not good enough to exploit Gomes' weakness. He notes that even when opponents wrestle Gomes, she still lands significant strikes. Cody believes Gomes' youth, power, and speed will overwhelm the 39-year-old Kowalkiewicz, likely by decision or knockout.

"I actually think that Denise Gomez probably knocks her out might knock her out but more than likely just wins a 29-28 fairly comfortably."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Connor picks Kowalkiewicz, assuming Gomes doesn't knock her out immediately. He thinks Kowalkiewicz's experience and grappling advantage will take over as Gomes fades. He notes the odds are too wide in favor of Gomes, who he considers not good and prone to mistakes.

Odds too wide; Gomes should not be such a heavy favorite.
"I'll take Kovalkiewicz and the assumption that Gomes doesn't knock her out immediately."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Daniel Vreeland picks Denise Gomes due to her youth, physicality, and momentum, contrasting with Karolina Kowalkiewicz's age (39) and decline. He notes Kowalkiewicz's past success but believes Gomes' power and aggressive style will be too much. However, he has zero interest in betting at -500 odds.

"I'm going with Denise, the age, the physicality, the momentum on her side, but I have zero interest in laying minus 500 on her."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Lucrative James picks Denise Gomes to win by knockout, citing her heavy power and Karolina's declining career trajectory. He believes Gomes will be too physical and that Kowalkiewicz won't be able to implement her game plan of volume and grappling. He expects a brutal knockout.

by KO
"I'm picking Denise Gomez here and I think she gets a knockout potentially a brutal knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Denise Gomes

Gomes is expected to control the striking with her power and possibly get some grappling success to win on the scorecards, similar to how Yasmin Lucindo beat Kowalkiewicz.

"look for Gomez to control the Striking round with the power that she possesses but maybe even get some grappling success of her own to get some control time and win this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Paul is considering the underdog Kowalkiewicz at +390, noting that Gomes has shown takedown defense issues. He thinks if Kowalkiewicz can replicate her performance against Syana Gomez Warez, she could make it competitive. Paul admits it's a sucker bet but is tempted by the price.

"Karolina plus 390 is in consideration for me this week Cody and it's gross."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

The Guru picks Denise Gomes, expecting a brutal assault. He notes Kowalkiewicz's age (39) and her scared reaction when hit. He believes Gomes is a big, physical fighter for the division and will get a TKO win.

TKO win
"I'm going with Denise Gomez getting this one done over kolina kovalovich by TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Zane picks Gomes but is hesitant. He notes that Gomes has power and can knock out Kowalkiewicz early, but if she doesn't, she runs out of ideas and makes mistakes. He acknowledges Kowalkiewicz's grappling and backtake game could be a threat, but thinks Gomes' youth and power give her the edge.

"I think I'm going to pick Gomes though, still."
WIN vs Eduarda Moura
Decision (split) (28–29, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Jun 08, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Denise Gomes 0 18 of 47 38% 27 of 66 5 of 26 19% 0 0 6:36
Eduarda Moura 0 50 of 88 56% 137 of 184 0 of 1 0% 1 2 2:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Denise Gomes 0 4 of 11 36% 9 of 25 2 of 9 22% 0 0 3:11
Eduarda Moura 0 7 of 16 43% 32 of 47 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:48
2 Denise Gomes 0 5 of 7 71% 9 of 12 2 of 9 22% 0 0 1:58
Eduarda Moura 0 21 of 37 56% 69 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:20
3 Denise Gomes 0 9 of 29 31% 9 of 29 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:27
Eduarda Moura 0 22 of 35 62% 36 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Denise Gomes 18 of 47 38% 12 of 40 4 of 5 2 of 2 12 of 39 5 of 6 1 of 2
Eduarda Moura 50 of 88 56% 19 of 46 22 of 30 9 of 12 31 of 60 17 of 22 2 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Denise Gomes 4 of 11 36% 2 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 5 3 of 4 1 of 2
Eduarda Moura 7 of 16 43% 1 of 7 5 of 7 1 of 2 3 of 9 4 of 6 0 of 1
2 Denise Gomes 5 of 7 71% 3 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Eduarda Moura 21 of 37 56% 11 of 24 10 of 12 0 of 1 6 of 17 13 of 15 2 of 5
3 Denise Gomes 9 of 29 31% 7 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 0
Eduarda Moura 22 of 35 62% 7 of 15 7 of 11 8 of 9 22 of 34 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Eduarda Moura

Angelo picks Eduarda Moura, emphasizing her solid grappling and takedowns. He notes that she took down a national wrestling champion (Monsterrat Ruiz) three times, while Angela Hill took down Denise Gomes five times. He believes Eduarda's wrestling will be too much for Denise, who is primarily a striker. He thinks Eduarda will get takedowns and control the fight, possibly winning a decision or getting a finish.

"if Angela Hill can take down Denise Gomes five times and eduarda MOA can take down a national wrestling champion three times who wins this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Eduarda Moura

Big Brady picks Eduarda Moura to win by second-round TKO. He notes that Moura is physically strong and can get the fight to the mat, where she has vicious ground and pound. He is concerned about Moura's chin being up in the air, but believes she can implement her will and finish Denise Gomes, who has shown poor takedown defense against Angela Hill and Loma Lookboonmee.

TKO round 2
"I like MAA still not 100% bought in or nothing like that but I think stylistically this is a match up where she can Implement her will get the fight down to the mat and win this fight I'll say …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Eduarda Moura

Cody picks Moura, noting that Gomes is undersized and has poor takedown defense. Moura is a weight bully with strong grappling and has dominated opponents on the ground. Cody believes Moura will take Gomes down and submit or ground-and-pound her. He sees this as a clear stylistic advantage.

"I honestly think that this is like one way TR it's like the Melissa G fight from a couple weeks ago like it could go another way it could possibly turn into this but it's like you got a girl …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Daniel picks Gomes for the upset, citing a market overcorrection and her striking advantage. He notes Moura must take Gomes down to win, as Gomes has lost when taken down repeatedly. He hopes Gomes can keep the fight standing and light Moura up.

upset
"I'm going Denise here for the upset"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Denise Gomes

Jacob picks Denise Gomes, disagreeing with Angelo. He argues that Eduarda Moura is a weight bully who will gas after the first round, as seen in her previous fights. He notes that Denise is tough, has power in her hands, and will pressure Eduarda. He predicts that after Eduarda's takedowns slow down in the second round, Denise will land a right hand and finish her. He also points out that Eduarda's standup is poor with her chin up.

Denise Gomes wins by KO/TKO in round 2
"Denise is going to pressure and Denise going to pressure and eventually she GNA land that right hand because if I know anything about darar Mara and her standup game oh is that chin up"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Eduarda Moura

Moura is a weight bully with strong top pressure and grappling, while Gomes has been grinded out by strikers in the past. Moura's height and reach advantage will help her take the fight to the ground and eventually finish via submission or TKO. Gomes' striking advantage won't matter if she can't keep it standing.

inside the distance, submission or TKO
"give me MOA MOA inside the distance maybe submission maybe TKO but do think sh ends up getting the victory here by Finnish"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Eduarda Moura

Paul agrees with Cody's reasoning but is hesitant to lay the minus 170 price in a women's strawweight fight. He acknowledges Moura's grappling advantage but notes that Gomes has knockout power. Paul thinks Moura is the play but might not bet it.

"MOA is the play but uh I don't know minus 170 uh women's straway fight I don't know if I'm going to be betting that to be perfectly honest"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Eduarda Moura

The Guru picks Moura because she is a touted undefeated prospect (10-0) with a strong grappling game, and Denise Gomes has shown weaknesses in grappling, recently losing a grappling match. He acknowledges Gomes has KO power but trusts Moura's grappling advantage to get a submission. He also notes Moura missed weight by 4 pounds, which he finds amusing.

Submission win prediction
"I'm going to side with eduarda MOA I think she'll have the grappling Advantage"
LOSS vs Angela Hill
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Nov 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Angela Hill 0 76 of 120 63% 96 of 153 5 of 9 55% 0 1 8:03
Denise Gomes 0 62 of 133 46% 111 of 203 1 of 3 33% 0 1 1:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Angela Hill 0 16 of 26 61% 23 of 36 1 of 2 50% 0 1 2:42
Denise Gomes 0 23 of 32 71% 48 of 70 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:01
2 Angela Hill 0 37 of 53 69% 42 of 62 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:23
Denise Gomes 0 33 of 71 46% 46 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Angela Hill 0 23 of 41 56% 31 of 55 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:58
Denise Gomes 0 6 of 30 20% 17 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Angela Hill 76 of 120 63% 37 of 76 37 of 42 2 of 2 40 of 68 33 of 44 3 of 8
Denise Gomes 62 of 133 46% 29 of 91 25 of 33 8 of 9 34 of 97 27 of 35 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Angela Hill 16 of 26 61% 7 of 16 9 of 10 0 of 0 5 of 9 9 of 13 2 of 4
Denise Gomes 23 of 32 71% 12 of 19 9 of 11 2 of 2 9 of 13 13 of 18 1 of 1
2 Angela Hill 37 of 53 69% 17 of 32 18 of 19 2 of 2 25 of 36 12 of 17 0 of 0
Denise Gomes 33 of 71 46% 14 of 47 13 of 17 6 of 7 21 of 58 12 of 13 0 of 0
3 Angela Hill 23 of 41 56% 13 of 28 10 of 13 0 of 0 10 of 23 12 of 14 1 of 4
Denise Gomes 6 of 30 20% 3 of 25 3 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 26 2 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Denise Gomes vs. Angela Hill
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gomes (-125), Hill (+105)

Round 1
The final women’s bout, booked at strawweight like Moura-Ruiz, features two women who comfortably made weight. Storied veteran Hill (15-13, 10-13 UFC), who looks for UFC win no. 11, faces off against a woman in Gomes (8-2, 2-1 UFC) who is almost 15 years Hill’s junior. Youth versus experience will be on full display for the next 15 minutes or less, and referee Fernando Portella will be the arbiter of this encounter. There is no plan for a glove touch, and instead Gomes would rather throw hands and feet right out of the gate. Hill checks a calf kick and her forward momentum bowls the Brazilian over. Hill lands on top, but only for a few seconds until the Parana Vale Tudo fighter powers her way back to her feet. The two clinch up, and they pepper one another in the body with knees. Hill loads up on her knees to the breadbasket, and Gomes considers hitting a trip but ends up falling to her back. Hill muscles her down to her knees when Gomes looks for a way up, and Hill works to take the back and hangs on the younger woman. Gomes grabs the glove a few times to get out of the bad position, and Hill breaks away and tags her once on the way out. The two trade hands, and Gomes succeeds in tripping Hill and dumping her on her face. They both get back up, and Hill counters her with a throw of her own. They explode upright again, and Gomes loads up on power punches that ring Hill’s bell repeatedly. Hill leans on heavily to clinch and hold onto Gomes, thereby shutting down the swinging fists that smack her in the face. Hill drives her knees in the solar plexus again and again, until Gomes has had enough of this and pushes her off. Hill resets and pushes out a front kick, and Gomes swings at air when this meets her. Gomes scores a big right hand, and Hill backs off but is snagged and throws to the mat. Gomes latches onto Hill’s left arm for an armlock of some kind, and she considers a kimura or an armbar, as she sits on top in an awkward position. Gomes drives down several hammerfists, and before she can get the armbar, Hill slides out the side. Hill, now in the driver’s seat, gets blasted with a right hand from Gomes on her back. Hill toughs it out and elbows Gomes in the face, and Gomes forces her way back up at the bell to end the close, exciting round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill

Round 2
Hill keeps her guard up high when she comes out of her corner, as Gomes whips a head kick at her to lead off the round. Gomes is intercepted when looking for a big overhand right, and Hill ties her up for a second before pushing off. Hill snipes Gomes with a solid right hand, and Gomes grins at her. Hill works her with a second overhand right, and a third before Gomes lobs another kick at her. Hill takes the strikes of the Brazilian and fires back, and she leans away from a spinning kick from Gomes. The two trade hands, and then land low kicks at the same time. Hill ducks a strike and comes over the top with a left, and she connects with two punches to follow. Gomes loads up again with power, and it hits air as Hill is too quick to eat it flush. Gomes absorbs a right hand on the chin and tags Hill with an uppercut, leading Hill to tie her up in the clinch and shove her to the wall. Hill gets off an elbow, and Gomes lowers her hands and looks for hefty counters. Hill spins with an elbow that bangs into Gomes’ chin, and Gomes goes not bat an eye and continues advancing. Hill shoots for a takedown, and Gomes defends with a standing guillotine that makes Hill think twice about the attempt. Hill sneaks in a few clinch strikes before backing off, and she watches Gomes’ winging strikes blaze past her. Hill catches a kick and deposits Gomes to the floor, but Gomes get right back up and takes a deep breath. Hill scores a few punches, and Gomes crowds her and blasts her in the face with a fierce right hand. When Hill grabs hold of her, Gomes answers with a number of vertical, hacking elbows. Gomes overswings, and Hill snags her and looks to drag her down. When Gomes keeps her balance, Hill smacks her in the face with a knee. Hill turns the corner, and Gomes succeeds in fighting off the takedown but gets kneed in the dome twice more. The round ends as the two are stuck together.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill

Round 3
As if she thought she was down on the scorecards, Gomes charges out of her corner and busts the veteran in the chops with a number of wide punches. Hill fires back, and she blunts the momentum by clinching up the younger woman and tripping her with a body lock. Gomes drops to her knees, defending the strikes from the side, and Hill hangs on from behind. Before long, Gomes works her way back to her feet with the fence at her back, and Hill drags her down again. Hill stays on the Brazilian like a bad penny, never giving Gomes a moment to breathe and not allowing her to get anything off. Hill peppers Gomes with knees to the head, side and thigh, attacking any target she can find while Gomes is stuck without answers. This grinding approach is slowing Gomes down, and a knee to the belly takes a bit more of the wind out of her sails. Gomes manages to push off and keeps throwing hands, but one left hand allows Hill to duck it and secure a single-leg takedown. When Gomes attempts to scramble, Hill is one step ahead, whether trying to take the back or working Gomes with strikes to the side of the melon. Gomes defends but is totally out of her game, and a short elbow from “Overkill” opens a cut on the side of Gomes’ eye. Hill flattens Gomes out, but Gomes explodes with 15 seconds to go and gets back up through sheer aggression. Hill tags her with a jump knee, and the close contest concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill (30-27 Hill)
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Hill (30-27 Hill)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill (30-27 Hill)

The Official Result
Angela Hill def. Denise Gomes via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Angelo picks Denise Gomes, citing the 15-year age gap and Hill's age. He notes Hill is durable and experienced, but Gomes is tough, comes forward, and has power. He placed a small half-unit bet on Gomes at -141. He cautions that if Gomes fights recklessly and gasses, Hill could win as an underdog.

half unit bet at -141
"I have a small half a unit on her at minus 141 I think the much older Angela Hill is probably going to lose this this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Angela Hill

Big Brady picks Angela Hill to win by decision but is hesitant. He notes Hill's experience and better competition, but worries about her age (38) and Gomes' power. He says Gomes is hittable but has real power for the division. He mentions that Hill just fought a five-round fight with Mackenzie Dern, so this is a step down in competition. He says he won't bet this fight.

"I'm going to take Angela Hill to win this fight by decision but I don't think I'm putting my money on this one here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Daniel Levi picks Denise Gomes, citing her rare one-punch knockout power in women's MMA and her aggressive style. He notes that Angela Hill, at 38, has slowed down and taken significant damage in recent fights, including a beating from Mackenzie Dern. Levi believes Gomes can hurt Hill on the feet and may even knock her out for the first time. He acknowledges Hill's experience and toughness, but sees Gomes' physicality and power as decisive factors. He is waiting for plus money on Gomes but leans toward her.

Gomes wins by KO/TKO
"I rarely ever pick Angela Hill... I'm not gonna bet on this fight unless I get plus money on Denise."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Nov 4, 2023 (fight day)

James sees this as a very close fight and is passing on betting. He believes Angela Hill is on a downward trajectory at 39 years old, gets hit often, and has been dropped in recent fights. He thinks Denise Gomes has power and could hurt Hill, but he is not sold on Gomes' overall game, describing her as uneducated on the feet. He notes that Hill has never been knocked out and could make it look easy if she can take Gomes' power, but he is not confident she can avoid getting clipped. He concludes it is a massive stay away.

"I think Angela Hill is clearly on a downward trajectory... but I can't do it man honestly I don't agree with it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Angela Hill

Hill's volume striking style, speed, and footwork will allow her to stay out of danger and pick apart Gomes from distance. Gomes' wrestling is not good enough to hold Hill down for extended periods. Hill should be able to operate at distance and win a decision, making her a good underdog spot.

underdog spot
"Give me Hill and I think she's a pretty good underdog spot for this UFC São Paulo card."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Angela Hill

The MMA Guru picks Angela Hill as an underdog over Denise Gomes. He praises Hill's composure and durability, noting she is very hard to finish. He references Hill's win over Loma Lookboonmee on short notice in Australia as evidence of her toughness. The Guru believes if Gomes doesn't get an early finish, Hill will pull ahead in later rounds, predicting a close 29-28 decision. He also mentions he likes the underdog odds.

underdog odds
"I'm going to go 2928 very close decision Angela Hill gets it done and she's an underdog and I think I'm going to take those odds"
TKO (punches) R1 0:20 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Denise Gomes 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yazmin Jauregui 1 17 of 20 85% 21 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Denise Gomes 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yazmin Jauregui 1 17 of 20 85% 21 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Denise Gomes 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yazmin Jauregui 17 of 20 85% 17 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 6 0 of 0 13 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Denise Gomes 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yazmin Jauregui 17 of 20 85% 17 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 6 0 of 0 13 of 14
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Angelo avoids this fight entirely, calling it a trap. He acknowledges Jauregui's striking talent but notes she was dropped in her last fight. Gomes is tough and comes forward, but takes time to get going. He thinks Jauregui should win if it stays on the feet, but recommends fading the female fighter who was just rocked. He makes no pick and advises others to avoid betting.

Avoiding the fight
"I'm avoiding this fight like the plague and I recommend you do as well"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Big Brady picks Yazmin Jauregui to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Jauregui is the much better striker, more defensively sound, and can also take the fight to the mat. He has concerns about Gomes' striking defense, as she blocks punches with her face and has been dropped multiple times. He expects a war but believes Jauregui will finish Gomes. He comments that the line at -400 is wild but thinks Jauregui is the better fighter.

second round knockout
"Yasmin jauregu wins this fight by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Cody picks Jauregui, citing her volume and cardio advantage. He thinks Gomes is tough but lacks the wrestling to neutralize Jauregui's pressure. He expects Jauregui to pull away on the scorecards. He notes Gomes is live at plus money but doesn't see a clear path.

Jauregui by decision, over rounds
"I think yasmine's gonna slowly pull away on the numbers the longer the fight goes and eventually that leads to a decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Connor picks Yazmin Jauregui because she is a potential future title contender with excellent pocket defense, balance, and combination punching. She stays compact, keeps a tight guard, and closes exchanges with a powerful left hook. Gomes is still raw and relies on pressure without consistent offense, and Jauregui's ability to absorb and adjust makes her the clear winner.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"She's a potential future title contender."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Daniel Levi picks Jauregui, highlighting her high output, Mexican heart, and improved physique. He notes that she was dropped in her last fight but got back up and showed durability. Levi respects Gomes for her win over Bruna Brasil but believes Jauregui has the higher upside and will be the longer fighter. He calls the fight a potential barnburner and picks Jauregui to win, though he is not interested in betting at minus-400.

"I think Yasmine year agui has the higher upside I think the line reflects that and for that reason I'm gonna pick her to win this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Yazmin Jauregui

James picks Yazmin Jauregui to win, likely by decision. He thinks Jauregui's understanding of range, footwork, and distance management are way better than Gomes'. He acknowledges Gomes hits hard and could drop Jauregui, but believes Jauregui is a level above and will school her on the feet. He considered playing the over but may not bet.

Yazmin Jauregui wins by decision (considered); over (considered, not played)
"I think yasmin's understanding of range and understanding of footwork and distance management are way better than Denise Gomez"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Jauregui is a more polished striker with good footwork and counter-striking. Gomes is aggressive but will struggle to close the distance against Jauregui's technical striking. Jauregui will set traps, land damage, and avoid trouble, winning by decision. The over 2.5 rounds is the favorite spot.

over 2.5 rounds
"give me yadagui by decision but over two and a half probably being my favorite spot in this matchup."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Paul takes Gomes as a value underdog at +350. He thinks the line is too wide and the fight is closer to 70-30. He notes both are prospects and Gomes is younger. He says he wouldn't recommend betting Jauregui at -400. He took a small shot on Gomes.

Gomes by KO/TKO (+175)
"I took Denise Gomez plus 350 on like Sunday it's a good price tag"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

The MMA Guru picks Yazmin Jauregui to win by 29-28 decision. He considers her a rare talented female fighter, comparing her to Loopy Godinez who beat Gomes. He criticizes Gomes' inability to fight on the back foot, as seen in her win over Bruna Brasil, which he views as an exposure of Brasil rather than a testament to Gomes.

wins by 29-28 decision
"I am gonna have to go with Eureka winning this one by 29-28 decision in classic women's MMA fashion"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Zane picks Yazmin Jauregui because she is a very good action fighter with fast hands, tight technique, and a devastating left hook. She adjusts well under pressure and uses data from exchanges to build offense. Gomes improved in her last fight by throwing punches while pressuring, but Jauregui is a much higher level opponent who can handle reckless collisions and counter effectively.

Jauregui opened at -455, currently -383; Gomes opened at +364, currently +316. Zane says odds reflect the matchup and he wouldn't expect them to get much tighter.
"Pretty easy pick for Jauregui."
WIN vs Bruna Brasil
TKO (punches) R2 2:42 · UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen · Apr 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Denise Gomes 0 15 of 22 68% 43 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:19
Bruna Brasil 1 54 of 93 58% 94 of 133 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Denise Gomes 0 10 of 15 66% 29 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:19
Bruna Brasil 0 23 of 40 57% 58 of 75 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:00
2 Denise Gomes 0 5 of 7 71% 14 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bruna Brasil 1 31 of 53 58% 36 of 58 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Denise Gomes 15 of 22 68% 7 of 11 6 of 8 2 of 3 9 of 15 6 of 7 0 of 0
Bruna Brasil 54 of 93 58% 28 of 58 8 of 8 18 of 27 21 of 47 10 of 12 23 of 34
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Denise Gomes 10 of 15 66% 3 of 5 5 of 7 2 of 3 5 of 9 5 of 6 0 of 0
Bruna Brasil 23 of 40 57% 12 of 25 5 of 5 6 of 10 15 of 30 8 of 10 0 of 0
2 Denise Gomes 5 of 7 71% 4 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bruna Brasil 31 of 53 58% 16 of 33 3 of 3 12 of 17 6 of 17 2 of 2 23 of 34
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Bruna Brasil

Angelo picks Bruna Brasil as the better striker overall, noting her creativity and power. However, he is hesitant because of the risk of a UFC debut freeze-up, citing a similar situation at UFC 287. He expects Bruna to be the better fighter but is not placing a bet due to the uncertainty of debut jitters.

"I'm going brother for the pick here but this would not be the first time we're gonna see a UFC debut freeze up in the moment"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Bruna Brasil

Big Brady picks Bruna Brasil to win by decision. He believes Brasil is the better striker and has solid takedown defense to keep the fight standing. He criticizes Denise Gomes' striking defense and overall skill, though acknowledges her toughness. He is not laying heavy chalk on Brasil but expects her to get the job done.

"I like Brazil to win this fight is it going to be closed probably are the judge is going to get it wrong probably uh but I'm going to take Brazil to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bruna Brasil

Cody notes Brasil's reach and length advantage, and thinks her striking from the outside will be key. He acknowledges Gomes' path to victory is to make it ugly and wrestle, but believes Brasil's takedown defense and strength will hold up.

"I'm gonna take we're going to Brazil in this one"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bruna Brasil

Connor agrees, noting that Gomes is too low output and lacks urgency. He believes Brasil's kick-heavy offense and clinch work will create opportunities, and that Gomes' pressure is not backed by actual aggression.

"So taking Brazil, but like I said, I like the basics that both these women are working on."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Bruna Brasil

Brasil's size, reach, and striking will keep Gomes at bay. Gomes is a brawler who struggles with range and can be reversed on the ground. Brasil's takedown defense and scrambling have improved. She should win by decision, using her reach to outpoint Gomes. The line may improve, but Brasil is the better fighter.

Brasil wins by decision
"I think she is far better than Gomez the far better Striker and again I see Gomez just walking into her punches."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Paul bet Gomes earlier at +200 and thinks the line movement is accurate. He acknowledges Brasil's advantages but notes Gomes' toughness and ability to make it a dogfight. He's not confident but took the plus money.

Bet Gomes at +200 earlier
"I scooped some Denise Gomez at plus 200 back on back on Sunday which I like"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Bruna Brasil

The MMA Guru picks Bruna Brasil, impressed by her striking, especially her head kick KO on Contender Series. He notes her reach advantage and believes she can keep the fight at range and land heavy shots. He is not impressed by Gomes' UFC debut and thinks Brasil has more promise.

Potential KO/TKO but cautious due to division
"I am siding with Bruno Brazil to get the job done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bruna Brasil

Zane picks Brasil because she has volume and clinch striking, while Gomes is low output and just walks forward without throwing much. He notes that Brasil's kick-heavy game and pressure will allow her to light up Gomes, who lacks urgency and has poor wrestling.

"I got to pick Bruno Brazil in that fight. Just because Brazil has the volume and she has the clinch striking."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Sep 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Loma Lookboonmee 0 19 of 34 55% 45 of 66 0 of 6 0% 3 2 5:31
Denise Gomes 0 48 of 67 71% 87 of 115 4 of 5 80% 0 1 7:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Loma Lookboonmee 0 5 of 9 55% 10 of 14 0 of 3 0% 1 1 1:32
Denise Gomes 0 22 of 30 73% 22 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:07
2 Loma Lookboonmee 0 7 of 16 43% 13 of 22 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:18
Denise Gomes 0 16 of 20 80% 26 of 34 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:49
3 Loma Lookboonmee 0 7 of 9 77% 22 of 30 0 of 0 --- 2 1 2:41
Denise Gomes 0 10 of 17 58% 39 of 51 2 of 2 100% 0 1 2:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Loma Lookboonmee 19 of 34 55% 13 of 25 2 of 3 4 of 6 13 of 25 6 of 9 0 of 0
Denise Gomes 48 of 67 71% 31 of 49 11 of 12 6 of 6 14 of 23 8 of 9 26 of 35
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Loma Lookboonmee 5 of 9 55% 1 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 5 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Denise Gomes 22 of 30 73% 17 of 24 2 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 13 0 of 0 15 of 17
2 Loma Lookboonmee 7 of 16 43% 6 of 13 1 of 2 0 of 1 3 of 9 4 of 7 0 of 0
Denise Gomes 16 of 20 80% 7 of 11 7 of 7 2 of 2 6 of 8 6 of 7 4 of 5
3 Loma Lookboonmee 7 of 9 77% 6 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0
Denise Gomes 10 of 17 58% 7 of 14 2 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 13
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Denise Gomes vs. Konklak Suphisara
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Suphisara (-225), Gomes (+190)

Round 1
For the entirety of her young career, Thailand’s Suphisara (6-3, 4-2 UFC) has won two fights and then lost a third, but always bounced back from that defeat with two more victories. This pattern has continued into this strawweight scrap against UFC newcomer and Parana Vale Tudo – the training camp of women like Jessica Andrade and Karol Rosa – prospect Gomes (6-1, 0-0 UFC), and a win for the Thai would keep it intact. This likely fast-paced fight will receive oversight from referee Keith Peterson, and a touch of gloves comes before his nonsense-free eyes. Suphisara fires off a front kick, and the Brazilian answers immediately with a slapping leg kick. Suphisara responds in kind, and they mirror one another with their strikes. Suphisara counters with a clean elbow that opens a cut on the top of Gomes’ forehead, and her teep kick sends Gomes sprawling to the mat. Gomes climbs back up, and she spins with a wheel kick but is too close. With Suphisara closing in on her, she scores a right hand, and Gomes catches a subsequent kick. The Brazilian spins her opponent around and jams her into the fence. “Loma Lookboonmee” reverses position and takes her opponent down, where she climbs into mount in a hurry. The Thai slams down several vicious elbows until Gomes gives up her back, and Suphisara is hanging on in search of a choke of some sort. Suphisara flattens Gomes out, but Gomes is holding on tight with wrist control to stop anything from coming together. Gomes slithers out the back door, and Suphisara clings to a kimura until the Brazilian pops her head out. Gomes, in half guard, fishes for an arm-triangle choke in the blink of an eye. Gomes squeezes with her full body weight down, but she is not in the position that can get a tap. Suphisara answers the proverbial telephone to defend it, and as she does, Gomes jumps over to the side to lock it down. Gomes gives up on it to moves into mount, and she sets up an armbar and rolls to her back. Gomes throws her legs up with a triangle setup when the armbar is not there, and Suphisara slashes her with several elbows when the Thai gets space. Suphisara batters her opponent with elbows until the bell breaks them up.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Suphisara
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Suphisara
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Suphisara

Round 2
The ladies calmly saunter towards one another to start off Round 2, and Gomes throws first with an inaccurate head kick. Suphisara answers with a chopping leg kick, and her leg flies up high to the shoulder in a subsequent blow. Suphisara aims for a takedown, and she settles to topple over and put Gomes on her back, where she is already nearly in mount. Gomes drags her back to half guard and grips onto a kimura, and she succeeds in nullifying any additional strikes from the Thai. The sweep attempt fails, as Suphisara steps over into mount and pounds her with several elbows. Suphisara looks to take the back, but abandons it, sits up and returns to her feet. Gomes follows, and Suphisara greets her with a pair of kicks. Both women lead with fierce elbows, and Gomes crashes in to clinch before dropping to her knees for a single. “Loma Lookboonmee” defends it and works her adversary over in the clinch with knees and elbows. Gomes responds with one, and she falls to her back courtesy of a head lock throw. Suphisara, landing in half guard, starts to deliver some elbows to the dome. Gomes manages to pull Suphisara back to her guard, and she tries for a triangle choke of sorts. Suphisara stands and walks away, but she does not pay attention and thinks that Peterson is standing Gomes up. Peterson does nothing of the sort, and Gomes dives in for an unexpected takedown. Protect yourself at all times. Suphisara turns herself around to stay on her feet, and she frames off to peg Gomes with punches and kicks until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Suphisara
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Suphisara
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Suphisara

Round 3
The final frame begins frantically, as Gomes goes on the offensive immediately. Pushing forward, she drives Suphisara to the wall and lands a few solid punches. As Suphisara defends, Gomes spins with an elbow and blasts the Thai in the face. Gomes changes levels in search of a takedown, and the two hit the mat. Gomes tries to isolate a leg in search of a leglock, and Suphisara awkwardly slides her leg out of it but does not get up. Gomes jumps on to take her back, and she hooks the body triangle on her toes. Gomes starts setting up a rear-naked choke, and it is more of a neck crank as she cannot get a grip under the chin. Gomes keeps searching for chokes, but none are to be found as Suphisara defends her neck well. Suphisara explodes out of the position and right into armbar danger, but she shucks the legs out of the way and gets on top. Gomes turns and nearly gives up her own back, but Suphisara does not take it and decides to stand up. The Brazilian follows her to the feet, but “Loma Lookboonmee” immediately trips her out and lands on top. Suphisara belts her opponent with elbows as the blood flows freely from the UFC newcomer’s face, and Gomes can do little else but defend her head as she is jammed between the corner of the cage and the mat. Suphisara rains down several punches, and the final bell puts an end to this strange 115-pound pairing.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gomes (29-28 Suphisara)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gomes (29-28 Suphisara)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gomes (29-28 Suphisara)

The Official Result
Konklak Suphisara def. Denise Gomes via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

Angelo picks Lookboonmee, citing her technical Muay Thai striking and improved grappling. He notes that her only losses came when she was outgrappled, but he doesn't see that happening here. He believes she will win the striking exchanges and can mix in takedowns. Angelo mentions the line was wide but is tightening, and he considered a takedown prop bet.

Considered takedown prop bet.
"i'm gonna go with loma look boom me here she's proven to us that she can be a dangerous technical striker as well as an effective grappler"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

Big Brady picks Loma Lookboonmee to win by decision. He states that Loma is the better technical striker by a mile and has improved with each fight. He notes that Denise Gomes is tough and gritty but very chinny, having been dropped and wobbled often. Brady believes Loma can implement her striking and possibly even get takedowns. However, he warns that Gomes throws high volume and has good recovery, so he would not lay the moneyline. He predicts Loma wins a decision, possibly dropping Gomes along the way.

decision
"i think loma ultimately wins the decision here so give me loma look for me to win look with me to win this one by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

Cody thinks Lookboonmee is a better striker with good clinch work and takedown defense. He notes Gomes is one-dimensional and coming off a short-notice fight where she took damage. He expects Lookboonmee to win a decision.

Lookboonmee by decision
"i just think that she is a better striker wrestling is good enough to keep this fight standing"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

Daniel Levi leans Loma Lookboonmee due to her UFC experience and better competition, but is not confident. He notes both fighters are small for the weight class and that Gomes is tough with high volume. He expects a close split decision that could go either way, and does not bet.

"I guess i'll lean loma with the ufc experience but don't be surprised man don't be surprised to see it be another split decision fight that could go either way"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

Jacob is very high on Lookboonmee, praising her Muay Thai experience and her addition of wrestling and trips. He notes that she tossed Lupita Godinez, a great wrestler, to the ground. Jacob believes she is better everywhere and that the odds should be wider. He included her in a parlay at -270 and may add a moneyline bet if the odds drop further.

Included in a parlay at -270.
"i threw her in a parlay at -270 i might put a money line bet on her if they keep dropping"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 16, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

Loma has a decorated Muay Thai background and has added takedowns to her game, making her a more complete MMA fighter. Gomes is one-dimensional, relying on striking, and has shown vulnerability to grappling. Loma's cardio is better than Gomes's previous opponents, so she can mix in leg kicks and takedowns to keep Gomes guessing. Loma should win a decision or possibly a late finish.

Loma by decision is a good alternative to the moneyline
"Loma loop with me much better cardio than what we have to worry about from Milana and that should be enough for her to go out there to outstrike Denise from the outside staying active with the leg kicks and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

Paul leans Lookboonmee, noting the line has moved but he still thinks she gets it done. He mentions the Lookboonmee decision prop at -105 as a better value.

Lookboonmee by decision -105
"the boomi decision is pretty much uh can be had for like minus 105"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

The MMA Guru picks Loma Lookboonmee by 29-28 decision. He believes Lookboonmee is a technical striker with Muay Thai foundation, ready on short notice. He notes she has good grappling and has fought tough opponents like Angela Hill and Michelle Waterson. He thinks Denise Gomes is nothing special and that Lookboonmee will win on the feet with superior striking.

"loma look boom's got great striking i'm picking her to win against denise gomez 29-28 decision"
Expert Picks (4)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Angelo picks Denise Gomes, acknowledging that the odds are wide but understanding why she is the favorite. He notes that Elise Reed is a gamer and can make it competitive, but Gomes is a very good fighter who can grapple and strike. He mentions that without Jacob in Reed's corner, there is concern about her getting held against the cage. He thinks Gomes will win if she moves forward and uses pressure.

"Denise is going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Big Brady picks Denise Gomes, highlighting her power and ground-and-pound. He notes Elise Reed's huge hole in her ground game, with all four losses by finish. He predicts Gomes will hurt Reed on the feet or take her down and submit her in the second round.

Gomes by submission, round 2
"I like Denise Gomes here. I think she has a path to absolutely look every every bit of minus 550 and we'll see if she takes it, but I'll go with Denise Gomes to get a second round submission in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Denise Gomes

The host is surprised by the wide line, noting Gomes is not a high-level grappler and doesn't often look to grapple, which has been Reed's issue. He thinks if it's a striking battle, Reed can be competitive with her taekwondo background. He leans with Gomes due to her physicality and clinch work, but says don't be surprised if Reed pulls off the upset. Official prediction is Gomes by decision.

Gomes by decision
"I'm going to lean with Gomez with her physicality and maybe some clinch work that she could grind this one out."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Denise Gomes

The Guru picks Denise Gomes confidently, calling her a -575 favorite who 'hits like a man' and has decent grappling. He thinks Elise Reed is outmatched and will be finished, predicting a TKO in the first round. He criticizes the matchmaking as a sacrificial lamb for Reed.

Gomes by TKO in round 1
"I'm going to go with Denise Gomez by KO."