UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025 · Women's Strawweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
Age 36
Height 5' 1"
Reach 60.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 33
Height 5' 2"
Reach 62.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Tecia Pennington
4.73 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.48 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
0.56 TD Avg
14.0% TD Acc.
62.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Luana Pinheiro
3.29 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
4.06 SApM
60.0% Str. Def.
2.33 TD Avg
37.0% TD Acc.
71.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Tecia Pennington
Moneyline
Caesars -280
KO/TKO
FanDuel +950
Submission
FanDuel +1100
Decision
BetRivers -143
Luana Pinheiro
Moneyline
FanDuel +260
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1300
Submission
DraftKings +1400
Decision
DraftKings +500
Tecia Pennington - Fight History
LOSS vs Denise Gomes
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Nov 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tecia Pennington 0 58 of 125 46% 73 of 144 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:32
Denise Gomes 0 53 of 138 38% 75 of 169 3 of 10 30% 0 1 3:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tecia Pennington 0 22 of 51 43% 34 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Denise Gomes 0 25 of 61 40% 26 of 62 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:10
2 Tecia Pennington 0 27 of 56 48% 29 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Denise Gomes 0 19 of 54 35% 22 of 58 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:06
3 Tecia Pennington 0 9 of 18 50% 10 of 21 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
Denise Gomes 0 9 of 23 39% 27 of 49 2 of 3 66% 0 1 3:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tecia Pennington 58 of 125 46% 15 of 56 9 of 19 34 of 50 58 of 118 0 of 7 0 of 0
Denise Gomes 53 of 138 38% 19 of 86 15 of 29 19 of 23 48 of 129 2 of 5 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tecia Pennington 22 of 51 43% 7 of 21 4 of 12 11 of 18 22 of 50 0 of 1 0 of 0
Denise Gomes 25 of 61 40% 11 of 37 6 of 14 8 of 10 24 of 58 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Tecia Pennington 27 of 56 48% 6 of 27 4 of 5 17 of 24 27 of 52 0 of 4 0 of 0
Denise Gomes 19 of 54 35% 5 of 34 5 of 9 9 of 11 19 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Tecia Pennington 9 of 18 50% 2 of 8 1 of 2 6 of 8 9 of 16 0 of 2 0 of 0
Denise Gomes 9 of 23 39% 3 of 15 4 of 6 2 of 2 5 of 17 1 of 2 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Angelo is confident in Tecia Pennington as an underdog, calling her the best underdog on the card. He highlights her speed, durability, well-roundedness, and high fight IQ. He disagrees with the nearly 2-to-1 odds favoring Denise Gomes, arguing that Tecia is the more technical and experienced fighter. He plans to hammer a plus 3.5 bet on Tecia.

Tecia Pennington plus 3.5 rounds (spread bet)
"Anytime I see Tecia as a dog, I drool a little bit. ... I'm going to hammer a plus three and a half bet on Tecia Torres."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 7, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Denise Gomes

Big Brady favors Gomes due to her youth, power, and grappling upside, though he thinks the line might be a bit wide. He acknowledges Pennington is still fighting at a high level, citing her close decision against champion Mackenzie Dern. He expects a competitive fight that goes to a close decision, with Gomes landing the bigger shots and getting her hand raised.

decision
"I think Gomes lands the bigger shots, has the bigger moments, and gets her hand raised on the scorecards."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Cody picks Pennington as a dog, citing her experience and ability to outwork opponents. He thinks Gomes' wrestling is not good enough to keep Pennington down, and Pennington can win a close decision.

"I am going to take Tisha, man."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Lucrative James leans towards Denise Gomes, citing her youth, power, and physicality. He acknowledges Tecia Pennington's experience and volume but believes Gomes' finishing upside and strength will be decisive. He is not confident due to Pennington's high level and the price, but picks Gomes for the win.

"I have to pick Gomez. I don't know. Like, I feel like she's going to be like minus 250, - 300, maybe - 220. And it just doesn't intrigue me at those prices."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

The host is a bit unsure but leans toward Gomes due to her power, expecting her to land more significant strikes. Pennington may have volume and takedown attempts, but Gomes should nullify most of that and win on the scorecards.

"This one has me a little bit scratching my head, but I think that the power of Gomez should allow her to land more significant strikes against Pennington."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Paul picks Pennington, expecting a razor-thin split decision. He notes Pennington's takedown defense and striking volume, and thinks Gomes' wrestling is overrated.

"Tisha Pennington by split decision razor thin."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

The Guru picks Denise Gomes over Tecia Pennington. He believes Gomes will win via big moments and knockdowns, even if Pennington outlands her. He cites Pennington's tendency to lose close decisions due to lack of power, and Gomes's youth and size advantage. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Gomes.

fight goes to decision
"I'm going to go with Denise Gomez getting this one done. Big moments."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tecia Pennington 0 63 of 127 49% 78 of 149 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:44
Luana Pinheiro 0 40 of 110 36% 46 of 118 5 of 10 50% 0 0 1:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tecia Pennington 0 26 of 61 42% 30 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Luana Pinheiro 0 16 of 51 31% 19 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:08
2 Tecia Pennington 0 18 of 38 47% 21 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Luana Pinheiro 0 20 of 39 51% 20 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Tecia Pennington 0 19 of 28 67% 27 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Luana Pinheiro 0 4 of 20 20% 7 of 24 5 of 6 83% 0 0 1:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tecia Pennington 63 of 127 49% 34 of 82 10 of 17 19 of 28 56 of 109 7 of 18 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 40 of 110 36% 23 of 85 5 of 9 12 of 16 33 of 95 7 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tecia Pennington 26 of 61 42% 18 of 42 2 of 6 6 of 13 21 of 51 5 of 10 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 16 of 51 31% 11 of 44 3 of 4 2 of 3 11 of 43 5 of 8 0 of 0
2 Tecia Pennington 18 of 38 47% 8 of 25 2 of 5 8 of 8 17 of 35 1 of 3 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 20 of 39 51% 11 of 26 2 of 5 7 of 8 18 of 35 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Tecia Pennington 19 of 28 67% 8 of 15 6 of 6 5 of 7 18 of 23 1 of 5 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 4 of 20 20% 1 of 15 0 of 0 3 of 5 4 of 17 0 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Angelo picks Tecia Pennington, stating she should win all day long. He notes that Pennington is good everywhere, with good boxing, solid grappling, and insane cardio. He acknowledges that the line at -400 is a little sketchy but believes she wins more often than not. He suggests the over might be more affordable and advises keeping an eye on the over line.

Angelo suggests the over might be more affordable than Pennington's moneyline and advises keeping an eye on the over line.
"This should be Tisha all day long. The line reflects that at four to one favorite here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Big Brady picks Tecia Pennington, noting that Luana Pinheiro fades after the 7.5-minute mark. He argues Pennington's losses are to elite fighters in close decisions, and a loss to Pinheiro would be her worst ever. He expects Pennington to win by decision.

Pennington by decision
"I got to go Pennington. You know, she's not somebody you typically want to lay minus 350 on, but I will pick her to win. And I'll pick her to win by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

The host is surprised Pennington is such a big favorite, believing Pinheiro matches her in physicality and may be the better striker in terms of landing significant damage. He sees Pinheiro as very live to pull off the upset and picks her to win by decision. However, the pick is not made with high confidence, as he acknowledges the line is surprising.

Pinheiro by decision
"I'm going to start with her to pull off the upset to to begin the card by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Tecia Pennington

The Guru picks Tecia Pennington, calling her underrated and strong for the division. He believes she scrambles well and won't be outgrappled by Luana Pinheiro. He notes Pennington was robbed in past decisions against Mackenzie Dern and Tabatha Ricci, and thinks she is better overall. He predicts a 29-28 decision win.

Pennington to land more than 64.5 significant strikes (via Prize Picks)
"I think this is a pretty easy Tisha Pennington decision win."
WIN vs Carla Esparza
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tecia Pennington 0 39 of 123 31% 116 of 215 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:40
Carla Esparza 0 80 of 150 53% 94 of 166 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tecia Pennington 0 6 of 26 23% 77 of 105 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:52
Carla Esparza 0 13 of 38 34% 19 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tecia Pennington 0 12 of 43 27% 17 of 51 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:29
Carla Esparza 0 31 of 55 56% 32 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Tecia Pennington 0 21 of 54 38% 22 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
Carla Esparza 0 36 of 57 63% 43 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tecia Pennington 39 of 123 31% 30 of 112 4 of 6 5 of 5 33 of 110 0 of 3 6 of 10
Carla Esparza 80 of 150 53% 28 of 92 11 of 12 41 of 46 75 of 142 5 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tecia Pennington 6 of 26 23% 4 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 24 0 of 2 0 of 0
Carla Esparza 13 of 38 34% 8 of 32 3 of 3 2 of 3 10 of 34 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Tecia Pennington 12 of 43 27% 6 of 35 2 of 4 4 of 4 12 of 42 0 of 1 0 of 0
Carla Esparza 31 of 55 56% 14 of 37 5 of 5 12 of 13 31 of 54 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Tecia Pennington 21 of 54 38% 20 of 53 0 of 0 1 of 1 15 of 44 0 of 0 6 of 10
Carla Esparza 36 of 57 63% 6 of 23 3 of 4 27 of 30 34 of 54 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Angelo picks Tecia Pennington, citing her recent good form, cardio, and ability to defend takedowns. He notes Carla Esparza is coming off a two-year layoff and may be rusty. He believes Pennington's pressure and volume will overwhelm Esparza as the fight goes on, especially at elevation where Pennington lives. He also suggests over 2.5 rounds as a safe bet.

Over 2.5 rounds is the safest bet on the card
"Tisha is the pick she's going to be the pick here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Big Brady picks Tecia Pennington despite considering Esparza as a live dog. He cites major red flags for Esparza: a two-year layoff, a recent loss to Zhang Weili, this being her retirement fight, and having a child. He believes Pennington is the better striker and can stuff takedowns, and expects her to win a decision.

"I got to go Pennington here I'm I'm going to take Pennington to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Cody picks Esparza as a dog, citing her wrestling and takedown ability. He questions Pennington's takedown defense and thinks Esparza can control the fight on the ground. He expects a decision win for Esparza.

"I will take Carlos sparza"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Carla Esparza

Connor picks Esparza despite her long layoff and recent poor performances. He argues that Esparza's wrestling is likely to give her early success, and Pennington struggles to press her striking advantage. He notes that Pennington is a young veteran who never turned into a veteran veteran, and Esparza is tough to beat.

"I'm going to go with Carla Esparza too. I know it's her retirement fight, but she's really, really tough to beat."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Daniel Vreeland picks Tecia Pennington, citing her volume striking and Esparza's potential decline. He notes that Esparza is coming off a pregnancy and has announced this as her retirement fight, which often leads to poor performances. Vreeland believes if Pennington can stuff takedowns, her volume will be too much for Esparza, and he expects a decision win.

"I'mma go with uh Tia Tores here to come out here and win a decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Tecia Pennington

The host believes Tecia Pennington has improved significantly since her loss to Carla Esparza nearly 10 years ago. He notes that both women are now mothers, but Pennington has less ring rust as she fought earlier this year. He expects Pennington to have a better overall game and win on the scorecards with a damage-based approach.

"I believe Pennington is very much improved since that matchup and given that both these women are now moms most recently Carla sparza I do believe that will see Pennington a little bit better in terms of being in the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Paul leans toward Esparza, noting her wrestling and the value at plus 150. He thinks Pennington's takedown defense is suspect and that Esparza can grind out a decision. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.

"it's a total dog or pass situation for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

The MMA Guru initially leans toward Carla Esparza but switches to Tecia Pennington after visualizing the matchup. He notes Pennington is faster, more explosive, and has better wrestling and scrambles. He also mentions Pennington's recent split decision with Tabatha Ricci and win over Angela Hill, while Esparza's speed is lacking. He expresses regret and uncertainty, calling it a tough pick.

"I'm going to go with Tisha Pennington here over Carla espara you guys God I might regret that but I'll go with that"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Carla Esparza

Zane also picks Esparza, though he admits he came into the discussion feeling down on her. He notes that Esparza's wrestling should give her an early round, and Pennington's inability to press her striking advantage makes it likely Esparza wins a decision. He acknowledges the retirement factor but thinks Esparza's scrappiness will carry her.

"I guess Esparza because she's probably going to win around."
LOSS vs Tabatha Ricci
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tabatha Ricci 0 54 of 143 37% 94 of 186 1 of 10 10% 0 0 5:15
Tecia Pennington 0 80 of 219 36% 92 of 231 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tabatha Ricci 0 25 of 76 32% 26 of 77 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:07
Tecia Pennington 0 42 of 107 39% 47 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tabatha Ricci 0 10 of 27 37% 32 of 50 0 of 5 0% 0 0 3:01
Tecia Pennington 0 15 of 47 31% 21 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Tabatha Ricci 0 19 of 40 47% 36 of 59 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:07
Tecia Pennington 0 23 of 65 35% 24 of 66 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tabatha Ricci 54 of 143 37% 32 of 105 9 of 19 13 of 19 48 of 135 6 of 8 0 of 0
Tecia Pennington 80 of 219 36% 64 of 194 6 of 14 10 of 11 70 of 193 10 of 26 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tabatha Ricci 25 of 76 32% 12 of 52 5 of 11 8 of 13 23 of 72 2 of 4 0 of 0
Tecia Pennington 42 of 107 39% 32 of 93 4 of 8 6 of 6 36 of 94 6 of 13 0 of 0
2 Tabatha Ricci 10 of 27 37% 7 of 22 1 of 2 2 of 3 10 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tecia Pennington 15 of 47 31% 11 of 41 0 of 1 4 of 5 13 of 39 2 of 8 0 of 0
3 Tabatha Ricci 19 of 40 47% 13 of 31 3 of 6 3 of 3 15 of 36 4 of 4 0 of 0
Tecia Pennington 23 of 65 35% 21 of 60 2 of 5 0 of 0 21 of 60 2 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 5, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Angelo picks Tabatha Ricci because he doubts Tecia Pennington will be the same fighter after having a baby and a two-year layoff. He notes Ricci's relentless takedowns and top pressure, and that she has beaten good grapplers. He acknowledges Pennington's well-rounded skills but thinks the layoff and motherhood are too big a question mark.

"I got to go with thei here she's a very tiny slight favorite"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Big Brady picks Tecia Pennington (Torres) for the upset, despite acknowledging red flags like her two-year layoff after having a baby. He believes Torres has the better striking and volume, and that even if Ricci takes her down, Torres has a good get-up game and is physically strong. He notes Ricci's path to victory is getting takedowns, but she failed to do so in losses to Fiorot and Lupi. He expects the fight to primarily take place standing, favoring Torres.

"I like Torres to win um there's a ton of red flags on her side I'm fully aware of that um but as far as a pick goes because I got to make a pick I'm taking Torres for the …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Cody picks Pennington but is leaning, not confident. He notes that Pennington (formerly Torres) has a history of high volume and has fought the best, but she is coming off a layoff and a loss. He thinks her volume and takedown defense will be key, and she can outwork Ricci on the feet. However, he acknowledges it's a coin flip and wishes for better plus money.

"I wish I had better plus money on TSH t i really wish I do but slight plus money I think it's plus 110"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked May 9, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Daniel Vreeland picks Tabatha Ricci, but hesitantly. He notes that Tecia Pennington is the better fighter on her best day, but she is coming off a pregnancy, which often leads to a drop in performance. He also questions Ricci's level but thinks the pregnancy factor gives Ricci the edge. He acknowledges it could go either way.

"I'm G pick Tabitha because she's not the one coming off a baby she is the one with a little momentum but it would not surprise me if Tisha won this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

The host picks Pennington due to her takedown defense and striking speed, which should keep the fight upright and cause Ricci problems. He notes the long layoff after childbirth as a concern but thinks the stylistic matchup favors her. He would only bet if the line moves to +150, indicating a lean rather than a confident play.

Would only bet if line reaches +150 range
"I'm going to go with Pennington here Pennington by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Paul picks Pennington, citing her volume and experience. He notes that Ricci's striking is stiff and she relies on takedowns, but Pennington has good takedown defense. Paul thinks Pennington can outwork Ricci in a competitive decision. However, he is not confident and calls it a coin flip.

"Pennington will be the pick but it's a coin flip bro"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

The MMA Guru picks Tecia Pennington (formerly Torres) as an underdog over Tabatha Ricci. He criticizes Ricci's standup as 'atrocious' and notes that Ricci only wins when she gets takedowns, which Pennington's wrestling background should prevent. He highlights Pennington's ability to avoid being held down and her superior striking, predicting a clear decision win.

"I'm going Tisha Pennington here as the underdog... 90% of people are picking Tabitha Rich here I think her stand Up's atrocious."
LOSS vs Mackenzie Dern
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · Apr 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mackenzie Dern 0 50 of 156 32% 58 of 164 0 of 5 0% 3 0 2:24
Tecia Pennington 0 76 of 124 61% 78 of 126 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mackenzie Dern 0 28 of 80 35% 28 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Tecia Pennington 0 35 of 62 56% 37 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
2 Mackenzie Dern 0 2 of 13 15% 8 of 19 0 of 0 --- 3 0 2:07
Tecia Pennington 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:06
3 Mackenzie Dern 0 20 of 63 31% 22 of 65 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:11
Tecia Pennington 0 39 of 57 68% 39 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mackenzie Dern 50 of 156 32% 42 of 147 6 of 7 2 of 2 46 of 152 3 of 3 1 of 1
Tecia Pennington 76 of 124 61% 19 of 61 25 of 30 32 of 33 75 of 122 0 of 0 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mackenzie Dern 28 of 80 35% 24 of 76 2 of 2 2 of 2 26 of 78 2 of 2 0 of 0
Tecia Pennington 35 of 62 56% 6 of 31 15 of 17 14 of 14 35 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mackenzie Dern 2 of 13 15% 2 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1
Tecia Pennington 2 of 5 40% 1 of 3 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Mackenzie Dern 20 of 63 31% 16 of 58 4 of 5 0 of 0 19 of 62 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tecia Pennington 39 of 57 68% 12 of 27 10 of 12 17 of 18 38 of 55 0 of 0 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2022 (10 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Angelo confidently picks Tecia Torres (Pennington). He criticizes Dern's poor takedown accuracy (10%) and overconfidence in striking. He believes Torres' volume, boxing, and cardio will keep the fight standing, and even if it goes to the ground, Torres can avoid submissions. He plans to bet on Torres.

Moneyline bet on Tecia Torres.
"i like tisha torres to win i'm going to put a bet on t-shirt tours i'm very confident in tisha's ability to just have a ton of volume keep it on her feet and even if it does go to …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Big Brady picks Tecia Torres to win by decision. He sees the fight as a coin flip: if Dern gets it to the mat, she submits Torres; if Torres stuffs takedowns, she outstrikes Dern. Torres has better striking and has been focusing on strength and conditioning. Dern has poor takedown accuracy (10%). Brady has zero confidence and won't bet it.

"i'll take torres um zero confidence in it i'm not gonna be betting it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Cody leans Torres but is not fully confident. He acknowledges Dern's submission threat but thinks Torres' speed and volume will be key. Cody notes Dern's takedown struggles and that Torres has been taken down before, but believes the big cage favors Torres. He considers Dern by submission at +250 as a possible path but thinks Torres wins by decision more often.

Dern by submission +250
"i think more often than not teacher taurus wins by decision which is at giraffe king sportsbook right now tours by decision plus 130"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Levi acknowledges Tecia Torres's volume and striking advantage, but believes Dern's elite jiu-jitsu is a step above the competition. He thinks Dern will eventually get a hold of Torres and take the fight to the mat, possibly finishing by submission. He is not betting this fight because Torres could avoid takedowns and win a decision, but he picks Dern.

Dern by submission (plus 250, mentioned as a possible prop)
"i just think that mckenzie durn is a step above the competition in that weight class at in grappling"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

I think Torres is the better fighter with superior speed, combinations, and takedown defense. Dern has poor takedown accuracy (3 of 28 in UFC) and Torres will keep the fight standing. Torres will get in and out with strikes and win a decision. I also like Torres by TKO at +600 as a sprinkle.

Torres by TKO +600 (sprinkle)
"I am going to go with the Tisha Torres side here I think she's the better fighter I think she'll be quicker on the feet better with the combinations... I'll take her to win this fight via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Paul likes Torres at even money, citing her far better striking, speed, and experience. He notes Dern's takedowns are a mess and that Torres has only lost to the best in the division. Paul thinks Torres boxes Dern up, staying in and out, and that Dern's only path is a submission, which is unlikely. He expects Torres to win by decision, which is plus money.

Torres by decision +130
"i like torrez at those odds for sure far more experienced far better striker"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

The MMA Guru picks Tecia Torres (Tecia Pennington) as an underdog, citing her wrestling and speed. He expects her to stuff takedowns and piece up Dern on the feet, leading to a corner stoppage in the second round. He notes Dern's poor striking and only recently starting hard sparring.

underdog pick, corner stoppage prediction in round 2
"i'm gonna go if tcha torres over mackenzie dern... she's a evens odds against her... i gotta go underdog here with tisha torres"
WIN vs Angela Hill
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Aug 07, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tecia Pennington 0 144 of 298 48% 166 of 322 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:16
Angela Hill 0 96 of 188 51% 99 of 191 2 of 7 28% 0 0 1:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tecia Pennington 0 43 of 94 45% 51 of 102 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Angela Hill 0 25 of 56 44% 25 of 56 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:57
2 Tecia Pennington 0 51 of 99 51% 55 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Angela Hill 0 30 of 64 46% 31 of 65 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:43
3 Tecia Pennington 0 50 of 105 47% 60 of 116 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:14
Angela Hill 0 41 of 68 60% 43 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tecia Pennington 144 of 298 48% 80 of 217 41 of 52 23 of 29 127 of 274 16 of 22 1 of 2
Angela Hill 96 of 188 51% 64 of 141 29 of 41 3 of 6 73 of 160 22 of 26 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tecia Pennington 43 of 94 45% 20 of 63 18 of 22 5 of 9 40 of 90 3 of 4 0 of 0
Angela Hill 25 of 56 44% 17 of 44 8 of 10 0 of 2 20 of 50 5 of 5 0 of 1
2 Tecia Pennington 51 of 99 51% 29 of 73 13 of 17 9 of 9 43 of 89 8 of 9 0 of 1
Angela Hill 30 of 64 46% 16 of 43 12 of 18 2 of 3 24 of 54 5 of 9 1 of 1
3 Tecia Pennington 50 of 105 47% 31 of 81 10 of 13 9 of 11 44 of 95 5 of 9 1 of 1
Angela Hill 41 of 68 60% 31 of 54 9 of 13 1 of 1 29 of 56 12 of 12 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2021 (fight day)
Tecia Pennington

Angelo is very confident in Torres, citing her high volume, good grappling, and that she has only lost to champions. He notes that Hill has improved but still struggled against Ashley Yoder, while Torres is a much higher level. He mentions he bet Torres at -132 and expects her to win a decision, possibly mixing in grappling as she did in the first fight.

Bet Torres moneyline at -132
"Tasha Torres is legit... I think Tasha Torres has very good volume coming forward, super busy, this is a rematch she won it the first time... I just don't see her losing this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Big Brady thinks this rematch will look similar to the first fight, with Torres mixing in takedowns and controlling Hill on the ground. He notes Hill's takedown defense has improved but she was still taken down by Ashley Yoder. He predicts Torres will win a decision by using takedowns and clinch control.

"I'll take Tisha Torres to win by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Cody picks Torres, arguing she has looked like a different fighter in her last two outings with increased confidence and output. He believes Torres has the wrestling advantage and will mix in takedowns to secure a close decision. He notes Angela Hill is a tough gatekeeper but lacks power and strength.

Torres by decision +100
"i think tisha torres goes out there and gets the job done guess the victory i again it's going to be close i wouldn't fault you if you went for the underdog of this one but i think she's got …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Daniel Levi picks Tecia Pennington via decision, citing her better mindset, skill set, and ability to win rounds. He criticizes Angela Hill for not accepting responsibility for her losses and for accusing Pennington of steroid use without evidence. He believes Pennington is more realistic and has a win over Hill already. He expects a close fight but favors Pennington's consistency and judge-friendly style.

"I'm gonna go with Tecia via decision here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 5, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Angela Hill

Hill has polished her game and should have better striking and movement. Torres will likely grapple, but Hill has improved takedown defense and should get back to her feet. The fight will likely be close and go to decision, but Hill is the underdog and has a good chance. However, trusting Texas judges is risky, so it's a pass for betting.

Hill by decision +180; over 2.5 rounds
"I like angela hill here um but again pass guys just just [ __ ] pass on this [ __ ] show."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Paul leans towards Torres, noting her recent confidence and improved output. He thinks Torres is the better athlete and has a more well-rounded game, but acknowledges the fight is close and could go either way. He mentions the over is heavily juiced and expects a decision.

Torres by decision +100
"i'll lean towards torres what about you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

The MMA Guru picks Tecia Torres over Angela Hill. He notes Torres' improved striking, especially her kicks, and her dominant win over Sam Hughes. He believes Torres' speed and output will outwork Hill, who is older (36). He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision for Torres.

"i'm gonna go with teisha torres here i actually really like tisha torres"
WIN vs Sam Hughes
TKO (doctor stoppage) R1 5:00 · UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno · Dec 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tecia Pennington 0 52 of 103 50% 52 of 103 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
Sam Hughes 0 20 of 53 37% 26 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tecia Pennington 0 52 of 103 50% 52 of 103 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
Sam Hughes 0 20 of 53 37% 26 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tecia Pennington 52 of 103 50% 27 of 71 13 of 17 12 of 15 50 of 101 2 of 2 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 20 of 53 37% 9 of 33 2 of 3 9 of 17 19 of 52 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tecia Pennington 52 of 103 50% 27 of 71 13 of 17 12 of 15 50 of 101 2 of 2 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 20 of 53 37% 9 of 33 2 of 3 9 of 17 19 of 52 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Big Brady picks Tecia Torres (Pennington) to win by decision. He cites her massive speed and volume advantage, and notes that Hughes is a big step up in competition. He mentions Torres' recent win over Brianna Van Buren and her losses to top competition.

"i'm going to take torres to win here by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Daniel expects Tecia to roll, citing her recent impressive performance against Van Buren and her wins over top competition. He thinks Sam Hughes is taking a massive step up and will lose a decision.

decision loss for Hughes
"tisha should roll here i mean she looked she looked really good her last fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Dec 6, 2020 (6 days before fight)

The MMA Guru picks Angela Hill, despite her two recent losses (which he believes were actually wins). He cites Hill's reach advantage, natural size, and hunger to bounce back. He expects a close split decision. He acknowledges Tecia Torres is good but leans toward Hill.

split decision
"i'm gonna go with angela hill getting the job done by a close close i'd say split decision"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Volkov · Jun 20, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tecia Pennington 0 74 of 160 46% 111 of 199 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:09
Brianna Fortino 0 34 of 68 50% 37 of 71 2 of 7 28% 0 0 4:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tecia Pennington 0 12 of 29 41% 36 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:01
Brianna Fortino 0 9 of 11 81% 10 of 12 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:28
2 Tecia Pennington 0 28 of 65 43% 30 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Brianna Fortino 0 11 of 27 40% 12 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:34
3 Tecia Pennington 0 34 of 66 51% 45 of 77 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:36
Brianna Fortino 0 14 of 30 46% 15 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tecia Pennington 74 of 160 46% 42 of 127 21 of 22 11 of 11 55 of 136 17 of 21 2 of 3
Brianna Fortino 34 of 68 50% 9 of 40 21 of 22 4 of 6 18 of 51 16 of 17 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tecia Pennington 12 of 29 41% 6 of 23 5 of 5 1 of 1 5 of 20 7 of 9 0 of 0
Brianna Fortino 9 of 11 81% 1 of 3 8 of 8 0 of 0 2 of 3 7 of 8 0 of 0
2 Tecia Pennington 28 of 65 43% 17 of 54 7 of 7 4 of 4 24 of 59 4 of 6 0 of 0
Brianna Fortino 11 of 27 40% 3 of 16 6 of 7 2 of 4 7 of 23 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Tecia Pennington 34 of 66 51% 19 of 50 9 of 10 6 of 6 26 of 57 6 of 6 2 of 3
Brianna Fortino 14 of 30 46% 5 of 21 7 of 7 2 of 2 9 of 25 5 of 5 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 17, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Brianna Fortino

Big Brady picks Brianna Fortino (Van Buren) despite Tecia Pennington's superior competition, believing Fortino is better on the feet and can get takedowns. He thinks Fortino will land more strikes and win a decision. He notes that Pennington hasn't won in five fights and that Fortino's takedown ability will be key.

odds: Fortino minus 190, Pennington plus 165; pick by decision
"I'm gonna go Van Buren here closed decision you know maybe unanimous"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Brianna Fortino

Daniel Levi picks Brianna Van Buren, calling her a future top-10 fighter. He highlights her relentless pressure, wrestling, and ability to exploit Tecia Torres' weaknesses: poor takedown defense and declining confidence. Levi believes Van Buren will dominate with takedowns and ground control, leading to a clear decision or late finish.

"I like Brianna Van Buren here. I think that she does make a statement and defeats Tecia Torres, Shaq."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 14, 2020 (6 days before fight)

Torres has lost four in a row but to top competition. She is strong, athletic, and has great grappling. Van Buren is being pushed but Torres has the experience edge. Torres will get the win, though it's a hesitant pick.

"I think I'm gonna go with tecia Torres I don't know why I'm doing this but I am doing it"
Luana Pinheiro - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tecia Pennington 0 63 of 127 49% 78 of 149 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:44
Luana Pinheiro 0 40 of 110 36% 46 of 118 5 of 10 50% 0 0 1:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tecia Pennington 0 26 of 61 42% 30 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Luana Pinheiro 0 16 of 51 31% 19 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:08
2 Tecia Pennington 0 18 of 38 47% 21 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Luana Pinheiro 0 20 of 39 51% 20 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Tecia Pennington 0 19 of 28 67% 27 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Luana Pinheiro 0 4 of 20 20% 7 of 24 5 of 6 83% 0 0 1:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tecia Pennington 63 of 127 49% 34 of 82 10 of 17 19 of 28 56 of 109 7 of 18 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 40 of 110 36% 23 of 85 5 of 9 12 of 16 33 of 95 7 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tecia Pennington 26 of 61 42% 18 of 42 2 of 6 6 of 13 21 of 51 5 of 10 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 16 of 51 31% 11 of 44 3 of 4 2 of 3 11 of 43 5 of 8 0 of 0
2 Tecia Pennington 18 of 38 47% 8 of 25 2 of 5 8 of 8 17 of 35 1 of 3 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 20 of 39 51% 11 of 26 2 of 5 7 of 8 18 of 35 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Tecia Pennington 19 of 28 67% 8 of 15 6 of 6 5 of 7 18 of 23 1 of 5 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 4 of 20 20% 1 of 15 0 of 0 3 of 5 4 of 17 0 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Angelo picks Tecia Pennington, stating she should win all day long. He notes that Pennington is good everywhere, with good boxing, solid grappling, and insane cardio. He acknowledges that the line at -400 is a little sketchy but believes she wins more often than not. He suggests the over might be more affordable and advises keeping an eye on the over line.

Angelo suggests the over might be more affordable than Pennington's moneyline and advises keeping an eye on the over line.
"This should be Tisha all day long. The line reflects that at four to one favorite here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Big Brady picks Tecia Pennington, noting that Luana Pinheiro fades after the 7.5-minute mark. He argues Pennington's losses are to elite fighters in close decisions, and a loss to Pinheiro would be her worst ever. He expects Pennington to win by decision.

Pennington by decision
"I got to go Pennington. You know, she's not somebody you typically want to lay minus 350 on, but I will pick her to win. And I'll pick her to win by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

The host is surprised Pennington is such a big favorite, believing Pinheiro matches her in physicality and may be the better striker in terms of landing significant damage. He sees Pinheiro as very live to pull off the upset and picks her to win by decision. However, the pick is not made with high confidence, as he acknowledges the line is surprising.

Pinheiro by decision
"I'm going to start with her to pull off the upset to to begin the card by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Tecia Pennington

The Guru picks Tecia Pennington, calling her underrated and strong for the division. He believes she scrambles well and won't be outgrappled by Luana Pinheiro. He notes Pennington was robbed in past decisions against Mackenzie Dern and Tabatha Ricci, and thinks she is better overall. He predicts a 29-28 decision win.

Pennington to land more than 64.5 significant strikes (via Prize Picks)
"I think this is a pretty easy Tisha Pennington decision win."
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · Nov 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gillian Robertson 0 42 of 105 40% 63 of 128 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:17
Luana Pinheiro 0 52 of 108 48% 78 of 145 5 of 17 29% 0 1 8:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gillian Robertson 0 14 of 38 36% 16 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Luana Pinheiro 0 15 of 32 46% 15 of 35 3 of 8 37% 0 0 2:33
2 Gillian Robertson 0 25 of 61 40% 29 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Luana Pinheiro 0 20 of 47 42% 22 of 55 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:22
3 Gillian Robertson 0 3 of 6 50% 18 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:13
Luana Pinheiro 0 17 of 29 58% 41 of 55 1 of 3 33% 0 1 4:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gillian Robertson 42 of 105 40% 23 of 84 16 of 18 3 of 3 41 of 102 1 of 3 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 52 of 108 48% 33 of 72 5 of 18 14 of 18 28 of 76 4 of 4 20 of 28
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gillian Robertson 14 of 38 36% 8 of 32 5 of 5 1 of 1 14 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 15 of 32 46% 6 of 17 2 of 5 7 of 10 9 of 23 1 of 1 5 of 8
2 Gillian Robertson 25 of 61 40% 13 of 48 11 of 12 1 of 1 24 of 59 1 of 2 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 20 of 47 42% 11 of 32 3 of 9 6 of 6 17 of 44 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Gillian Robertson 3 of 6 50% 2 of 4 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 17 of 29 58% 16 of 23 0 of 4 1 of 2 2 of 9 0 of 0 15 of 20
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Angelo argues that since Luana Pinheiro was submitted by Angela Hill (the least dangerous grappler), she will certainly be submitted by Gillian Robertson, who has the most submission wins in flyweight history. He acknowledges Pinheiro has decent takedown defense and striking, but the MMA math leads him to Robertson. He calls it the only logical conclusion.

"Jillian Robertson has to be the pick here that has to be the only logical conclusion that you could draw so Jillian Robertson's the pick simple done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Big Brady believes this is a terrible matchup for Pinheiro, who fades after 7.5 minutes and has been submitted before. He praises Robertson's size, strength, cardio, and ground game, predicting she will take over late and submit Pinheiro in the second round.

Robertson by submission, round 2
"I'll take Jillian Robertson second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Cody echoes Paul's concerns about Pinheiro's wrestling and notes her quit in the Ronda Marcos fight. He highlights Robertson's high ring IQ and ability to grind opponents down with ground and pound. Cody expects Robertson to dominate on the mat and finish or win a clear decision.

"I think Jullian Robertson rolls here I would love the CF dot model myself but minus 400 favorite seems pretty accurate for Robertson."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Pinheiro's striking is aimless and formless. He thinks Robertson can ride out Pinheiro's initial success and eventually get her to the mat. He expects a submission win for Robertson.

"I think Robertson can ride out Pinero's success and eventually get her to the mat and start beating her."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Gillian Robertson, highlighting her record for most submission wins in UFC women's history and her ability to get takedowns. He criticizes Luana Pinheiro's toughness and cites past performances where Pinheiro was taken down and submitted by lesser grapplers. Vreeland expects Robertson to dominate on the ground and secure a finish.

"My pick is Julian Robertson."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Lucrative James confidently picks Gillian Robertson to win by submission. He highlights that Robertson has more physicality at strawweight and is a dangerous BJJ artist, while Pinheiro has cardio issues and is not strong in grappling. He predicts Robertson will get top position and finish via rear-naked choke or armbar, and also suggests the fight won't go to decision.

by submission, fight doesn't go to decision, under 2.5 rounds
"Julian Robinson to win via submission"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Gillian Robertson

This is a horrible stylistic matchup for Pinheiro. If she can't get success in the first round, Robertson will wear her down with pressure and pace, leading to a submission victory in round two.

wins by submission, round 2
"this is a horrible stylistic match up for Pinero if she's unable to get success in the first round which will eventually lead to Robertson wearing her down with the pressure and Pace eventually leading to a submission victory for …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Paul sees Pinheiro's takedown defense as a major red flag, citing her struggles against Angela Hill and Michelle Waterson. He believes Robertson's relentless top control and submission threats will be too much. Paul likes Robertson by submission and thinks the -400 line is accurate.

Robertson by submission
"I think like plus 140 Jillian Robertson by sub is how I would bet this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

The Guru picks Gillian Robertson, citing her grappling advantage and recent submission wins. He notes Luana Pinheiro's two-fight losing streak and that Robertson is a big favorite. He expects Robertson to implement her grappling and get a submission or TKO finish.

submission or TKO finish
"I'll go Julian Robertson getting her grappling off and implementing that part of her game"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Zane picks Robertson confidently. He notes that Pinheiro has a one-dimensional judo clinch game and no real striking. Robertson is a diligent takedown artist and ruthless on the ground. He expects Robertson to get the takedown and likely submit Pinheiro.

"I'm going to pick Jillian Robertson to beat her."
LOSS vs Angela Hill
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 4:12 · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · May 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Angela Hill 0 17 of 60 28% 25 of 77 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:04
Luana Pinheiro 0 28 of 79 35% 39 of 91 2 of 6 33% 1 1 3:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Angela Hill 0 7 of 20 35% 14 of 36 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Luana Pinheiro 0 8 of 34 23% 15 of 42 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:03
2 Angela Hill 0 10 of 40 25% 11 of 41 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:04
Luana Pinheiro 0 20 of 45 44% 24 of 49 0 of 4 0% 1 1 1:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Angela Hill 17 of 60 28% 11 of 51 3 of 6 3 of 3 15 of 54 2 of 6 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 28 of 79 35% 19 of 64 9 of 15 0 of 0 21 of 71 3 of 3 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Angela Hill 7 of 20 35% 6 of 19 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 17 1 of 3 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 8 of 34 23% 8 of 29 0 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 29 0 of 0 4 of 5
2 Angela Hill 10 of 40 25% 5 of 32 3 of 6 2 of 2 9 of 37 1 of 3 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 20 of 45 44% 11 of 35 9 of 10 0 of 0 17 of 42 3 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Luana Pinheiro vs. Angela Hill
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hill (-135), Pinheiro (+114)

Round 1
It’s on with the main card. Two strawweights on the outside of the top 15 looking in—the UFC does have one of them ranked—will come to blows in hopes of making that next big step towards contention. Pinheiro (11-2, 3-1 UFC) will be looking to get back into the green after her last outing saw her nine-fight win streak snapped violently. On the other side of the equation, divisional staple Hill (16-13, 11-13 UFC) has won three of our last four and is on a solid run despite turning 39 in January. Referee Herb Dean is ready for the long haul, and the women are too as they get right to it with no consideration of a glove touch. Hill feints her way forward, flicking out a front kick to test the waters and find her range. Pinheiro circles to both directions, and Hill cuts her off and pitches out a high kick that is several feet away from her intended target. Hill leaps forward with two right hands, both still too distant. Hill closes in, but the first actual strike landing is a calf kick from the Brazilian. Both women throw and land simultaneous right hands, and Pinheiro keeps her left hand ready to release. Hill puts the ball of her foot on Pinheiro’s torso, and she continues to walk Pinheiro down winging a right hand. The two women stick out jabs, and Pinheiro shoots for a takedown but cannot get anywhere. Hill backs away from a right hand, and she meanders forward and tosses out a head kick that is inaccurate. Pinheiro stick out a jab that marks up Hill’s nose, and they rush towards one another and start trading. Pinheiro looks to mix things up and throw Hill to the floor, but “Overkill” keeps her balance and pushes Pinheiro back to the fencing. Pinheiro jumps guard with a guillotine choke, and Hill threatens back with a Von Preux shoulder choke all while looking to establish better top position. Pinheiro releases her choke so that she does not get countered, and Hill lands a solid right hand before getting pushed off by Pinheiro’s flailing legs. Pinheiro gets off an upkick or two, and Hill pounces and bops her in the noggin with a right hand. Hill gets backed off with upkicks, and she connects with two mean standing-to-ground punches. Pinheiro jumps back to her feet, and Hill hurls her back down and lands a few strikes before the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill

Round 2
Pinheiro races out of her corner to engage, only for Hill to jab her back. Pinheiro loads upon on a power right hand, and when that misses, she leans back as one from Hill buzzes past her as well. Pinheiro splits the guard with a front kick, and Hill flirts with a single-leg takedown and comes over the top with a right. Pinheiro pirouettes with a back fist, and Hill’s guard is high enough to protect her. Pinheiro uses her jab effectively to score, and she times a right hand over the top. When Hill crowds her, Pinheiro lands hard again and grins to celebrate her handiwork. Pinheiro spins with a back fist, and Hill sees it coming and ducks it so she can throw Pinheiro to the ground. Pinheiro grabs the fence a few times to stay afloat, and Dean warns her for the fouls. The two fight for position in the clinch when Hill’s takedown comes up short, and Hill stifles a trip that Pinheiro offers back. Pinheiro escapes the clinch, and Hill gives chase with a front kick and a stabbing jab that snaps the head back. They both go after high kicks, and Hill tries a jumping switch kick and a high kick that both miss the mark. Hill misses with a head kick, and she knocks Pinheiro off her feet with a lunging jab. Pinheiro hops back up, and Hill is on her with pressure and strikes. Pinheiro shoots for a takedown, and Hill stops it and clings to a guillotine choke that she uses to knee the Brazilian in the head. Pinheiro escapes, and Hill runs at her and kicks her in the face. Pinheiro swings back and lands a left hand that cuts Hill’s eye, and Pinheiro shoots for a takedown.
Hill snatches up the neck while stuffing the attempt, and she sits down with a guillotine choke. When they hit the ground, Hill sweeps to claim the mounted guillotine, and the choke is crushingly tight. Pinheiro, who holds most of her finishes by submission while never suffering a submission loss, taps out.
Hill punts an 11-fight consecutive streak of fights going the distance with her tapout victory, and she is so excited when Dean intervenes that she does not know what to do with her hands. Hill figures it out and offers to help the defeated Pinheiro back to her feet, and she jumps into the arms of her corner to celebrate her first-ever submission win.

The Official Result
Angela Hill def. Luana Pinheiro R2 4:12 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Angela Hill

Angela Hill is a veteran with high fight IQ, good speed, volume, and versatility, though she lacks power. Luana Pinheiro is a powerful striker with solid takedowns and BJJ, but Hill's experience and game planning should prevail. Hill recently showed she can wrestle, and Angelo expects her to stick to a game plan and win a decision.

"Angela Hill is going to be the pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Angela Hill

Cody highlights Pinheiro's pattern of coming out fast and then gassing, as seen against Amanda Lemos and Randa Markos. He believes Hill's technical striking, footwork, and cardio will allow her to weather the early storm and take over in later rounds. Cody also notes Hill's improved wrestling, which she used to get five takedowns against Denise Gomes.

"I'll take her on one of those."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Angela Hill

Pinheiro is effective early but slows down, and Hill has improved her takedown defense and getups. Hill's volume and cardio advantage will allow her to piece up Pinheiro in the later rounds. Hill has derailed prospects before and should keep the fight standing. Expects Hill to win a decision.

"I do think it's the veteran Angela Hill as The Slight favorite who ends up getting her hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Angela Hill

Paul expects Hill to use her veteran savvy and volume to outwork Pinheiro, who has a history of gassing after a fast start. He notes Hill's technical striking and footwork will allow her to capitalize as the fight goes on. Paul also mentions Hill's recent use of wrestling as a new wrinkle.

"I actually do like Angela Hill to get the job done here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Angela Hill

The MMA Guru picks Angela Hill over Luana Pinheiro, calling Pinheiro 'quite [__]'. He argues that Hill has a misrepresented record with several robbery losses, and that she is difficult to finish. He believes Hill will outwork Pinheiro over three rounds and win a decision, as Pinheiro barely scraped by against Michelle Waterson.

"I'll go Angela Hill over Lana Pano I think Lana Pano is quite [__] so I'll go with Angela Hill"
LOSS vs Amanda Ribas
TKO (spinning wheel kick and punches) R3 3:53 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Nov 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Ribas 0 55 of 116 47% 56 of 120 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:11
Luana Pinheiro 1 87 of 224 38% 96 of 234 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Ribas 0 25 of 54 46% 25 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Luana Pinheiro 0 18 of 69 26% 19 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
2 Amanda Ribas 0 18 of 35 51% 18 of 36 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Luana Pinheiro 0 40 of 98 40% 40 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Amanda Ribas 0 12 of 27 44% 13 of 30 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:11
Luana Pinheiro 1 29 of 57 50% 37 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Ribas 55 of 116 47% 36 of 86 11 of 18 8 of 12 51 of 109 4 of 6 0 of 1
Luana Pinheiro 87 of 224 38% 57 of 158 8 of 29 22 of 37 81 of 212 3 of 6 3 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Ribas 25 of 54 46% 17 of 42 4 of 7 4 of 5 24 of 52 1 of 2 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 18 of 69 26% 12 of 51 1 of 8 5 of 10 17 of 68 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Amanda Ribas 18 of 35 51% 11 of 23 4 of 7 3 of 5 18 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 40 of 98 40% 23 of 64 3 of 14 14 of 20 39 of 96 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Amanda Ribas 12 of 27 44% 8 of 21 3 of 4 1 of 2 9 of 22 3 of 4 0 of 1
Luana Pinheiro 29 of 57 50% 22 of 43 4 of 7 3 of 7 25 of 48 1 of 3 3 of 6
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Angelo picks Amanda Ribas, expecting her to use her size and strength to grind out a win. He notes she is well-rounded with solid takedown defense and cardio. He warns she must stay controlled and not get sucked into a brawl. He also mentions a prop bet on Luana Pinheiro inside the distance.

Bet on Luana Pinheiro inside the distance (decision no action)
"Amanda's going to be the pick here but honestly the bet is going to be Lanna Panera inside the distance decision no action"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Big Brady thinks Ribas is better everywhere—striking, wrestling, grappling, cardio—but her chin is very bad, having been dropped and knocked out multiple times. He finds it hard to pick Pinheiro, who he doesn't think is that great, to win by knockout. He predicts Ribas wins by decision but calls it a sketchy fight due to durability concerns.

"I'm going to pick heos to win this fight by decision but a sketchy fight to be honest"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Cody picks Amanda Ribas, citing her takedown offense and volume striking. He notes that Pinheiro is a front-runner who tires, and Ribas can mix in takedowns and striking to win. He acknowledges Ribas took damage in her last fight but believes she has the dog in her to win.

"I'll pick heus as well to win on volume and just that she has that hashtag dog in her"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

Pinheiro has good striking power and can hurt Ribas on the feet. Ribas's grappling is a threat, but Pinheiro is strong enough to keep it standing. Pinheiro's power punches can find the button and knock Ribas out, likely in the second round. The line is too wide; Pinheiro has value at plus money.

win by knockout
"give me Pinero and I think I'm going to go down a limb here uh and I'm going to take her to win this fight by knockout low confidence but I think she can find the button on heos and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Paul picks Ribas, noting her takedown accuracy and ability to grind. He points out that Pinheiro gasses and has questionable durability. Paul believes Ribas can take her down, tire her, and open up striking. He mentions Ribas' loss to Barber but thinks Pinheiro lacks that finishing ability.

"I'm going to end up going with heos"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Nov 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

The MMA Guru picks Amanda Ribas despite concerns about her chin after being knocked out at flyweight. He criticizes Luana Pinheiro's record as padded, noting her controversial win over Michelle Waterson and a fake knockout against Randa Markos. He believes Ribas has a massive reach advantage and that Pinheiro lacks the power to finish her, predicting a 29-28 decision win.

decision 29-28
"I am going to go Amanda Ribas here... I don't see Pinheiro having the power to finish her at this point so I'm going to go Ribas wins a decision 29-28."
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luana Pinheiro 0 61 of 188 32% 70 of 199 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:01
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 44 of 122 36% 48 of 132 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luana Pinheiro 0 20 of 67 29% 20 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 15 of 43 34% 15 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 Luana Pinheiro 0 19 of 62 30% 22 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 19 of 50 38% 20 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:47
3 Luana Pinheiro 0 22 of 59 37% 28 of 67 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:01
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 10 of 29 34% 13 of 34 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luana Pinheiro 61 of 188 32% 18 of 114 16 of 34 27 of 40 53 of 178 8 of 10 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 44 of 122 36% 16 of 79 15 of 21 13 of 22 38 of 109 6 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luana Pinheiro 20 of 67 29% 5 of 39 4 of 11 11 of 17 20 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 15 of 43 34% 5 of 29 4 of 6 6 of 8 14 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Luana Pinheiro 19 of 62 30% 9 of 43 4 of 7 6 of 12 18 of 59 1 of 3 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 19 of 50 38% 9 of 34 5 of 7 5 of 9 15 of 42 4 of 8 0 of 0
3 Luana Pinheiro 22 of 59 37% 4 of 32 8 of 16 10 of 11 15 of 52 7 of 7 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 10 of 29 34% 2 of 16 6 of 8 2 of 5 9 of 25 1 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

Angelo picks Luana Pinheiro but with low confidence, citing age and career trajectory. He notes that Luana is a powerful striker with solid takedowns, but Michelle Waterson has veteran savvy and is the better overall striker. He is concerned about Luana coming off major knee surgery, which could affect her athleticism. He thinks Michelle is very live as an underdog.

"Luana should win right luana's got great wrestling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Big Brady picks Michelle Waterson-Gomez as an underdog, citing the massive step down in competition for Waterson. He notes that Pinheiro has a strong judo and early power but fades as the fight goes on. He believes Waterson's striking and experience will allow her to take over in later rounds. He is hesitant due to Waterson's age (37) but sees value.

"I will take Michelle Waterson Gomez to pull off the upset here and win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Cody picks Waterson as a value play. He thinks the fight is closer to 50-50 than the line suggests, so he sides with the plus money. He notes Pinheiro hasn't proven much and her DQ win over Randa Marcos was unimpressive. However, he doesn't love the pick and says he probably won't bet it. He acknowledges Waterson is at the end of her career.

"I'll side with what I think there's a value side in Michelle Crotty the karate hottie uh Waterson at plus 140 but don't love it"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Waterson. He notes that Pinheiro is raw and that Waterson is a competent, tough, high-level fighter who knows how to win. Connor also mentions that Pinheiro's potential hasn't been realized yet.

"I guess I'll side with you and take Watterson here."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Jacob flips to Michelle Waterson after film study, noting that Luana's takedowns are almost all Judo headlock throws that work against lower-level opponents. He believes Michelle's experience and superior striking will allow her to stay out of the clinch and dominate. He also points out that Luana is coming off major knee surgery, which could be a factor.

"I flip completely I think Michelle Waterson can dominate this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Waterson-Gomez is a veteran with good movement, kicks, and underrated grappling. Pinheiro has power and a strong top game but questionable cardio and competition level. I think Waterson's experience and ability to stay at range will wear on Pinheiro's gas tank, leading to a decision win. However, I lack high confidence because Pinheiro could land effective damage early.

"I'm going to lean with the experience and the veteran Savvy of a girl like or a woman like Michelle Waterson Gomez and I think she wins this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

Paul picks Pinheiro but is hesitant. He notes Pinheiro is younger, stronger, and has better wrestling and power. He thinks Pinheiro can take Waterson down and win rounds. However, he acknowledges Waterson's experience and fan-friendly style could lead to a close split decision in Florida. Paul says this is a low-confidence pick and not a top play.

"I will take Pinero it is I'm gonna put it way down the list this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

The MMA Guru picks Michelle Waterson to win by 29-28 decision. He describes it as a 'snooze fest' where Waterson will use fight IQ to secure a takedown at the end of each round, stealing the rounds on the scorecards. He expects a close fight with little action, but Waterson's experience and late-round takedowns will be the difference.

"I'm gonna go with Michelle Waterson doing that"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Zane picks Waterson because she is a crafty veteran who can stay tight and technical, taking Pinheiro off her feet with takedowns. He notes that Pinheiro's game is raw and she doesn't have a great top game or method to get ground and pound. Zane also mentions that Waterson is tough to knock out and has good reactive shots.

"I'm definitely going to take Watterson with the toughness and the grappling to just find ways of not having to have a physical fight with Piniero on the feet."
WIN vs Sam Hughes
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate · Nov 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luana Pinheiro 1 60 of 159 37% 67 of 170 2 of 3 66% 1 0 2:07
Sam Hughes 0 53 of 130 40% 65 of 147 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luana Pinheiro 0 11 of 39 28% 16 of 45 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:51
Sam Hughes 0 11 of 27 40% 22 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Luana Pinheiro 1 23 of 63 36% 24 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Sam Hughes 0 19 of 47 40% 20 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Luana Pinheiro 0 26 of 57 45% 27 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Hughes 0 23 of 56 41% 23 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luana Pinheiro 60 of 159 37% 40 of 126 14 of 25 6 of 8 53 of 148 2 of 4 5 of 7
Sam Hughes 53 of 130 40% 23 of 72 6 of 22 24 of 36 50 of 126 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luana Pinheiro 11 of 39 28% 5 of 30 4 of 6 2 of 3 10 of 37 0 of 1 1 of 1
Sam Hughes 11 of 27 40% 3 of 11 2 of 4 6 of 12 11 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Luana Pinheiro 23 of 63 36% 20 of 56 2 of 6 1 of 1 18 of 55 1 of 2 4 of 6
Sam Hughes 19 of 47 40% 9 of 28 2 of 9 8 of 10 19 of 46 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Luana Pinheiro 26 of 57 45% 15 of 40 8 of 13 3 of 4 25 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 23 of 56 41% 11 of 33 2 of 9 10 of 14 20 of 53 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

Angelo picks Luana Pinheiro, citing her power striking, solid takedowns, and BJJ. He notes Sam Hughes is tough but hittable with a negative striking differential, and that Luana's grappling will be the difference. He expects a decision win rather than a finish, as Luana doesn't have one-punch KO power. He mentions the odds are probably correct at -290.

Decision win expected; DraftKings price 9300 for Luana, 6900 for Sam; monkey knife fight more/more
"luanna is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

Big Brady picks Luana Pinheiro to win by first-round finish. He notes Pinheiro's phenomenal judo and ability to get the fight to the mat, but also highlights her gas tank issues as she hasn't seen the second round in over seven fights. He believes Sam Hughes' 44% takedown defense is a major hole and that Pinheiro will exploit it early. However, he warns that if Hughes survives the first round, the fight could get sketchy for Pinheiro.

first round finish
"I'm going to take her to win by first round finish I think she does get sam hughes out of there"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

Cody picks Pinheiro but is concerned about her cardio. He notes that all her wins are first-round finishes and she lost a decision when the fight went past the first round. However, he believes her judo and grappling are superior to Hughes's. He thinks Pinheiro will likely finish Hughes early, but if it goes longer, she may fade. He recommends betting Pinheiro inside the distance at plus money to mitigate the cardio risk.

Cody suggests betting Pinheiro inside the distance at plus money rather than the moneyline. He mentions that plus money across the board for her to win inside the distance is available.
"pinero inside the distance plus money is probably something i'm gonna add to the card here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

Daniel Levi picks Luana Pinheiro to win by armbar. He notes her judo throws and power, but worries about her panic when fights go past the first round. He criticizes Sam Hughes for being hesitant and timid, and believes Pinheiro will build a 10-8 round early and cruise to victory. He expects a submission finish.

armbar
"give me a luana pinero via armbar"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Sam Hughes

Lock likes Sam Hughes as a plus money underdog. He believes Pinheiro has a terrible gas tank and will fade if she doesn't finish early. Hughes is gritty and durable, and Lock thinks she can push a pace that exposes Pinheiro's cardio. He also notes that Hughes won a round off Loma Lookboonmee, showing she can compete. Lock took a half unit on Hughes moneyline and also sprinkled round props.

Sam Hughes round 2 +2400, Sam Hughes round 3 +3000, under 2.5 rounds +100
"I already took a half unit shot on her there and I have a couple round props that I've already played for her as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

Paul picks Pinheiro confidently. He dismisses the controversy around her last fight, stating she looked dominant before the illegal kick. He believes her judo is upper echelon and she will easily take Hughes down. He notes that Hughes has been dominated on the ground by Lookboonmee and finished by Tisha Torres. Paul thinks Pinheiro is a real prospect and Hughes is a card filler.

"i got to go with lana panaro and just hope to the betting gods that she's got more than five minutes of cardio or finishes this thing inside of those five minutes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

The MMA Guru picks Luana Pinheiro over Sam Hughes. He notes that Sam Hughes has not looked impressive in her UFC fights, facing tough competition in Tisha Torres and Loma Lookboonmee. He highlights Pinheiro's dominant grappling performance against Randa Marcos, where she took her down five times and out-struck her on the feet. He expects Pinheiro to win on the feet and in grappling, likely by unanimous decision.

"i am going to be going with luanna pinero here"
WIN vs Randa Markos
DQ (illegal upkick) R1 4:16 · UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Prochazka · May 01, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luana Pinheiro 0 18 of 40 45% 28 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Randa Markos 0 29 of 53 54% 35 of 61 5 of 6 83% 0 0 0:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luana Pinheiro 0 18 of 40 45% 28 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Randa Markos 0 29 of 53 54% 35 of 61 5 of 6 83% 0 0 0:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luana Pinheiro 18 of 40 45% 12 of 32 6 of 7 0 of 1 12 of 34 5 of 5 1 of 1
Randa Markos 29 of 53 54% 22 of 44 4 of 5 3 of 4 20 of 38 7 of 7 2 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luana Pinheiro 18 of 40 45% 12 of 32 6 of 7 0 of 1 12 of 34 5 of 5 1 of 1
Randa Markos 29 of 53 54% 22 of 44 4 of 5 3 of 4 20 of 38 7 of 7 2 of 8
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

Big Brady picks Luana Pinheiro to win by decision, but expresses hesitation about betting on Contender Series fighters, especially in women's MMA. He likes Pinheiro's aggression, power, and ability to take the fight down, noting Markos's poor takedown defense. However, he acknowledges that Contender Series favorites often fail to cover the price tag. He ultimately picks Pinheiro but says he won't bet on it.

"i will pick panera to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

Cody thinks Pinheiro is a strong prospect with hands and a judo background, training at ATT with her boyfriend Matheus Nicolau. He notes that Randa Markos has lost three in a row and seems to be on a downswing, possibly thinking about retirement. He believes Pinheiro can exploit Markos in many areas and that -170 is a fair price. However, he has low confidence due to the unpredictability of women's MMA and the veteran vs. debutant dynamic.

"i think minus 170 is fair what about you"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

Daniel Levi picks Luana Pinheiro to win, citing her finishing ability and jiu-jitsu credentials. He acknowledges the risk of a debut egg but believes Randa Markos is declining mentally and physically. Levi notes that Pinheiro's path to victory is takedowns and top control, as Markos has been dominated on the ground recently.

"i'm gonna go uh with luana here because i just don't think randa up here mentally is where she once was"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 30, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Randa Markos

The host picks Randa Markos as an underdog, citing her experience and durability. He questions Pinheiro's cardio since all her wins are first-round finishes on the regional scene. He expects Markos to take the fight into deeper waters and grind out a decision.

Randa Markos by decision at +235; Over 2.5 rounds at -220; Fight goes to decision at -185
"I am going to go with marcos not with the utmost confidence and not just because she's canadian"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Markos has seen better days and is on a losing streak. He points out that Markos has never won back-to-back fights in the UFC and is getting older. He thinks Pinheiro is a natural finisher with good grappling and striking, and that she looks strong for 115 pounds. He believes Pinheiro can exploit Markos' telegraphing and suspect wrestling. He agrees that -170 is fair but has low confidence due to the level of competition.

"yeah yeah i agree i think rhonda marcos has seen better days"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

The MMA Guru picks Luana Pinheiro over Randa Markos, expressing frustration with Markos' poor decision-making and lack of effort. He highlights Pinheiro's power and finishing ability, noting she has first-round finishes in her recent fights. He predicts Pinheiro will win by first-round finish, either by submission or KO.

first round finish
"i'm going to be picking luanna pinero here pretty confidently uh confidently to beat random archos and i'll say she gets a finish in the first round as well"
Expert Picks (4)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Angelo picks Tecia Pennington, stating she should win all day long. He notes that Pennington is good everywhere, with good boxing, solid grappling, and insane cardio. He acknowledges that the line at -400 is a little sketchy but believes she wins more often than not. He suggests the over might be more affordable and advises keeping an eye on the over line.

Angelo suggests the over might be more affordable than Pennington's moneyline and advises keeping an eye on the over line.
"This should be Tisha all day long. The line reflects that at four to one favorite here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Big Brady picks Tecia Pennington, noting that Luana Pinheiro fades after the 7.5-minute mark. He argues Pennington's losses are to elite fighters in close decisions, and a loss to Pinheiro would be her worst ever. He expects Pennington to win by decision.

Pennington by decision
"I got to go Pennington. You know, she's not somebody you typically want to lay minus 350 on, but I will pick her to win. And I'll pick her to win by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

The host is surprised Pennington is such a big favorite, believing Pinheiro matches her in physicality and may be the better striker in terms of landing significant damage. He sees Pinheiro as very live to pull off the upset and picks her to win by decision. However, the pick is not made with high confidence, as he acknowledges the line is surprising.

Pinheiro by decision
"I'm going to start with her to pull off the upset to to begin the card by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Tecia Pennington

The Guru picks Tecia Pennington, calling her underrated and strong for the division. He believes she scrambles well and won't be outgrappled by Luana Pinheiro. He notes Pennington was robbed in past decisions against Mackenzie Dern and Tabatha Ricci, and thinks she is better overall. He predicts a 29-28 decision win.

Pennington to land more than 64.5 significant strikes (via Prize Picks)
"I think this is a pretty easy Tisha Pennington decision win."