vs
-280 +300
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · Jun 06, 2026 · Lightweight · Scheduled
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim Next Fight
Age 29
Height 6' 1"
Reach 75"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 26
Height 6' 3"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Farès Ziam
2.87 SLpM
52.0% Str. Acc.
1.53 SApM
65.0% Str. Def.
1.73 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
71.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Tom Nolan
5.87 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
4.73 SApM
48.0% Str. Def.
0.74 TD Avg
22.0% TD Acc.
71.0% TD Def.
1.9 Sub. Avg
Farès Ziam
Moneyline
Caesars -280
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 3.97
Submission
FanDuel +500
Decision
FanDuel +185
Tom Nolan
Moneyline
Unibet Eu +300
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 10.61
Submission
BetRivers +2800
Decision
FanDuel +500
Farès Ziam - Fight History
SCHED vs Tom Nolan
13
138 MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

The host picks Ziam, stating that he is the more technical striker and expects the fight to stay on the feet. He believes Ziam will land the better shots and be able to stay safe from Nolan's offense. He notes that Ziam has good takedown defense and uses his long limbs well defensively.

"I'm going to take Aziam to get the win."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

AJ picks Ziam by KO, citing his surgical kickboxing, improved Muay Thai, and veteran savvy. He views Nolan as a step behind in technical striking and believes Ziam's precision and counter-punching will be too much. AJ expects a finish, possibly by KO or club-and-sub, and notes Ziam's experience advantage.

under 2.5 rounds plus 15; Ziam by KO
"I got Farezam over the big train. I think Ferez Zam is fantastic. He's a surgical kickboxer."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Angelo picks Farès Ziam despite being a self-proclaimed hater. He acknowledges Ziam has evolved, becoming more aggressive and technical. He believes Ziam is cleaner and can fight at range or in the pocket, taking advantage of Tom Nolan's recklessness. He notes the fight is closer than the -300 odds suggest.

Odds too wide, thinks fight is closer than -300
"I'm going to pick Vas though because I think he's a little cleaner. I think he can fight at range if he wants to or as we've seen as of late, he can jump into the pocket and fight there …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Big Brady picks Farès Ziam to win by decision. He notes that Ziam has improved rapidly, showing finishing ability and better grappling. He is not impressed with Tom Nolan, who got knocked out quickly and has been dropped. He thinks Ziam is the better fighter overall but doesn't love the price.

by decision
"I'll go far as I'm to win and win by decision."
BU
Bum MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Tom Nolan is a young, maturing fighter with good takedown defense and volume. He will outwork Farès Ziam over three rounds, pushing the pace and landing more strikes. Nolan is likely a slight underdog but has a bright future.

decision win; likely underdog
"Give me Tom Nolan by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Cody is confident in Ziam, citing his technical striking, improved wrestling, and Tom Nolan's poor durability. He notes Nolan has been hurt by lesser fighters and has weak takedown attempts. Ziam's growth and Nolan's chin issues make Ziam a strong pick.

"Zian's going to touch him at some point. He's going to hurt him at some point. He's going to knock him out at some point. I'm rolling with Fro Xian."
FI
Fight Night Picks Expert Confident picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Farès Ziam is picked to win inside the distance because he is the better MMA fighter with improved takedown defense and striking. Tom Nolan is hittable, has poor takedown accuracy (22%), and struggled against Charlie Campbell. Ziam's calculated striking and grappling upgrades make a finish likely, possibly by knockout or submission. The host agrees with the line.

Farès Ziam wins inside the distance (knockout or submission)
"I like FZM to win inside the distance and I actually agree uh with the line. So, give me FZM to finish this fight."
GR
Greedo Plays MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Ziam is on a six-fight win streak against better competition, including wins over Mike Davis and Nazim Sadykhov. Nolan has been fed weaker opponents and hasn't faced anyone of Ziam's caliber. Ziam should outpoint him on the feet and win a decision.

"I'm going to go Zam here. I think Zam wins. The question is, does he get the finish? I'm going to go no. I'm going go decision when for Zion."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Lucrative James picks Farès Ziam, citing his well-rounded skill set, improved fight IQ, and experience. He believes Ziam is one level above Tom Nolan in MMA and will win via decision, as Nolan is durable but likely outclassed over 15 minutes. He notes Nolan's X-factor finishing ability but thinks Ziam's technical striking and clinch game will be too much.

"I'm picking for SCM here. I'm picking him to win this fight via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Ziam has improved takedown defense and a sniper-like striking game. Nolan has poor striking defense and cardio issues. Ziam should pick Nolan apart and finish him in the third round as Nolan slows down. Ziam by third round TKO.

Ziam by TKO in round 3
"I think for the most part, we're going to see ZM pick Nolan apart. I think it'll stop most of the grappling exchanges of Nolan."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Paul picks Ziam by knockout, noting Ziam's well-rounded skills and Nolan's questionable durability. He likes Ziam's sneaky strikes and in-between fighting, and sees Nolan's chin as a major liability. He plans to bet Ziam by KO at +290.

Ziam by knockout at +290
"I like him to win by knockout by like it's like plus 290 out on the market. Um I'll be having a little bit of little bit of fun with that one."
KO R2 4:59 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nazim Sadykhov 0 4 of 16 25% 7 of 21 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:39
Farès Ziam 1 31 of 49 63% 76 of 96 2 of 5 40% 2 0 5:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nazim Sadykhov 0 0 of 1 0% 3 of 6 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
Farès Ziam 0 8 of 10 80% 49 of 53 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:22
2 Nazim Sadykhov 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Farès Ziam 1 23 of 39 58% 27 of 43 1 of 3 33% 1 0 1:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nazim Sadykhov 4 of 16 25% 1 of 11 0 of 0 3 of 5 4 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Farès Ziam 31 of 49 63% 21 of 36 2 of 3 8 of 10 18 of 31 4 of 5 9 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nazim Sadykhov 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Farès Ziam 8 of 10 80% 3 of 4 2 of 2 3 of 4 2 of 2 3 of 4 3 of 4
2 Nazim Sadykhov 4 of 15 26% 1 of 10 0 of 0 3 of 5 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Farès Ziam 23 of 39 58% 18 of 32 0 of 1 5 of 6 16 of 29 1 of 1 6 of 9
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Nazim Sadykhov vs. Fares Ziam
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ziam (-135), Sadykhov (+114)

Round 1
Jason Herzog is the referee. Ziam follows a leg kick with a body kick, and Sadykhov ties him up and pushes his foe to the fence. Ziam reverses the position and lands some knees to the thighs. Ziam lifs his foe and briefly dumps him on the mat. The Frenchman continues to control the clinch, punching the body. Ziam lifts Sadykhov, pulls him away from the fence and taked him down. Ziam transitions nicely to an arm-triangle choke attempt before moving to the back as Sadykhov attempts to scramble to his feet. Ziam is on Sadykhov’s back, and he drags him down to a seated position. “Smile Killer” has his hooks in, and he switches to a body triangle as he peppers Sadykhov with short shots. Ziam is looking to create opening for a rear-naked choke, but Sadykhov is defending well. Ziam elbows the shoulder of his opponent while still attached to the back. Sadykhov continues to fight the hands of his opponent as time ticks down, and he’ll survive to see another five minutes.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ziam

Round 2
Sadykhov looks to find punching range and Ziam backs him up with a high kick. The Frenchman lands some long punches, taking advantage of his reach. A jab from Ziam appears to briefly stun Sadykhov. Ziam moves in and lands a jab. A front kick makes Sadykhov stumble backwards momentarily. Ziam targets the lead leg of Sadykhov. Sadykhov is strugglling to find openings on the feet. Ziam lands a long right hand before changing levels against the fence. Sadykhov reverses the position and presses his foe into the fence. Ziam reverses and works for a high crotch takedown, punishing the leg of his opponent with a kick. Moments later, Ziam pulls Sadykhov off the fence and lands a takedown. The Frenchman is quickly working to take the back while hunting for a choke. Sadykhov scrambles but he can’t free himself from Ziam’s clutches. Sadykhov gets to a knee and then attempts to stand. But with time winding down in the frame,
Ziam creates some space and rocks Sadykhov with a pair of nasty elbows behind the ear. Sadykhov tumbles to the floor and covers up as Ziam unloads with unanswered ground-and-pound before the horn sounds.
Herzog has been taking a close look at the final salvo, and he elects to wave off the fight. It appears to be the right call because Sadykhov is on wobbly legs as he protests the stoppage. That's six straight victories for Ziam.

The Official Result
Fares Ziam def. Nazim Sadykhov via TKO (Elbows and Punches) R2 4:59
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Nazim Sadykhov

Angelo picks Nazim Sadykhov, acknowledging he has never correctly picked a Farès Ziam fight. He describes Ziam as a technical but boring fighter who sneaks out wins, while Sadykhov is a solid kickboxer with speed, power, and the ability to mix in wrestling. Angelo notes Sadykhov's comeback win over Nicholas Motta and believes his skills will overcome Ziam's style. He bet on Sadykhov at better odds earlier.

bet placed earlier at better odds
"Nazim's the pick. I bet on him. We got him at much better odds than this."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Nazim Sadykhov

Big Brady picks Nazim Sadykhov as a dog, calling him a 'madman' with a dog in him. He acknowledges Ziam is more technical and has improved his grappling, but expects Sadykhov to push a pace and make it a dog fight. He predicts Sadykhov wins by decision.

Sadykhov by decision
"I'm going to take the dog and in what I think is going to be a dog fight, I'm going to say Nazim Satakov wins this fight and wins it by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Cody picks Ziam, noting his improved takedown defense and technical striking. He believes Ziam's length and Muay Thai will be effective against Sadykhov, who is prone to being outworked. He mentions that Ziam has shown durability and has never been knocked down. He thinks Ziam will win a decision.

"For me, I just feel like Zam's the guy that's making a little more progress in his overall career that you see an improved version of him fight to fight."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Farès Ziam

Connor picks Farès Ziam, noting that Ziam has improved his striking and wrestling, becoming a more aggressive and dangerous fighter. He believes Ziam's well-rounded game and ability to control range will be too much for Sadykhov, who is a brute but has blank spaces in his game. Connor warns that Sadykhov is dangerous and can turn a fight around.

"My instinct is to say that Farah Ziyam's game makes too much sense for Sadikov to beat him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Daniel picks Ziam, citing his technical striking, reach advantage, and maturity. He expects Ziam to stay disciplined at range and outpoint Sadykhov, though he acknowledges Sadykhov's durability and power. He predicts a unanimous decision for Ziam.

"Ultimately, I think that Farzam is going to hand Nazim Sadikov his first UFCL."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Lucrative James finds this a tough fight to call. He notes that Nazim Sadykhov often gets outmaneuvered early but lands comeback finishes, while Ziam is more technical and durable. He thinks Ziam's fight IQ and ability to avoid big moments will allow him to win a decision. However, he is not confident and would not bet on either fighter at close odds.

"I'm going to end up picking Fesam here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Farès Ziam

The host believes Sadykhov's reliance on power will be exposed. He views Ziam as the superior technical striker who can handle Sadykhov's big shots and nullify his grappling, leading to a decision win.

win by decision
"I think ZM is the superior technical striker. He should be able to roll with the big shots of Sadikov and I think he should be able to nullify most of Sadikov's grappling game. That should lead to ZM outstriking …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Paul agrees, citing Ziam's reach advantage and technical striking. He notes that Sadykhov loses chunks of fights and relies on one big shot. He believes Ziam's durability and improved grappling will allow him to outpoint Sadykhov. He picks Ziam by decision.

"Zion for me and it kind of comes down to the same intangibles as well with just the length reach probably making it more of an ugly fight than what Nazam Sadakov wants."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

The Guru picks Farès Ziam over Nazim Sadykhov, citing Ziam's reach advantage and slick striking. He notes Sadykhov's wins have asterisks and he struggled against lower-level opponents. The Guru predicts a clean 30-27 decision for Ziam.

"I think Zam's going to win a clean slick 30-27 clear decision shutting down Sadikov."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Farès Ziam

Zane picks Farès Ziam, agreeing that Ziam's game is more coherent and that he has improved significantly. He notes that Sadykhov is a strange fighter who can make bad decisions but turn fights around with athleticism. Zane believes Ziam can stay ahead and control the fight, but must be careful throughout.

"I think you're right. I think that Ziyam has built enough of a solid, well-rounded competitive game everywhere to win this and to stay ahead of Sadikov all the way through."
CANCEL vs Kauê Fernandes
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kauê Fernandes

Angelo picks Kauê Fernandes confidently, criticizing the hype around Ziam. He believes Fernandes' aggression, grappling, and well-rounded skills will be too much for Ziam's point-fighting style. He notes that Ziam's wins are not as impressive as they seem. He plans to bet on Fernandes via a +3.5 round handicap when available, as he only needs Fernandes to win one round for that bet to cash.

plus 3.5 round handicap at plus 110
"I'm going to bet the [ __ ] out of Caillou Fernandez."
WIN vs Mike Davis
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Feb 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Farès Ziam 0 35 of 56 62% 58 of 83 4 of 7 57% 0 2 7:11
Mike Davis 0 20 of 35 57% 30 of 49 1 of 8 12% 1 3 3:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Farès Ziam 0 16 of 24 66% 20 of 29 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:23
Mike Davis 0 8 of 15 53% 10 of 18 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:34
2 Farès Ziam 0 10 of 18 55% 23 of 33 1 of 2 50% 0 2 2:31
Mike Davis 0 6 of 8 75% 8 of 10 0 of 3 0% 1 2 1:38
3 Farès Ziam 0 9 of 14 64% 15 of 21 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:17
Mike Davis 0 6 of 12 50% 12 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Farès Ziam 35 of 56 62% 29 of 50 5 of 5 1 of 1 20 of 33 5 of 6 10 of 17
Mike Davis 20 of 35 57% 13 of 26 5 of 6 2 of 3 13 of 24 2 of 2 5 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Farès Ziam 16 of 24 66% 12 of 20 3 of 3 1 of 1 14 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
Mike Davis 8 of 15 53% 3 of 8 4 of 5 1 of 2 6 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 2
2 Farès Ziam 10 of 18 55% 8 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 13
Mike Davis 6 of 8 75% 5 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 6 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Farès Ziam 9 of 14 64% 9 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 10 0 of 0 3 of 4
Mike Davis 6 of 12 50% 5 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 7
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mike Davis vs. Fares Ziam

Round 1
Lightweights are first up on the main card, where Davis (11-2, 4-1 UFC) tackles Ziam (16-4, 6-2 UFC) in an under-the-radar 155-pound appetizer. Tognoni serves as the third man in the cage. They touch gloves and get started. Davis follows a leg kick to the body with a left hook to the body, then shoots on a takedown and pulls guard. He scrambles to his feet and backs Ziam to the fence. They separate. Ziam fires a two-piece combo and again pulls guard. He stands behind an upkick. Ziam backs him to the cage with punches and scores with knees to the body. Jab to the head and another to the body from Ziam. The Frenchman rips a left hook to the body and a right hand over the top. Davis looks out of sorts. Ziam sticks him with a left uppercut, resets and then slams home jab. Davis shoots on a takedown but goes nowhere. He resets, scrambles behind Ziam and slams him to the mat. Davis climbs to full mount with 50 seconds to go. Ziam reclaims half guard. Davis feeds him an elbow and a knee to the body, then another. Strong close for Davis.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ziam

Round 2
They greet each other in the center. Jabs from Ziam. Davis plows forward behind a burst of power punches and connects with a left hook. Ziam clinches to protect himself, and they jockey for position along the fence. Ziam lands a knee with Davis crouched and opens a cut. Ziam scoops up the American and dumps him to the floor in the center of the cage. Blood streaming from the wound. Davis threatens with a heel hook, then positions himself for a calf slicer and uses it to take top position. He scrambles into a bid for an arm-triangle but loses position. Ziam scores with standing-to-ground punches. He flirts with an anaconda choke after sprawling on a takedown attempt, then frames an arm-triangle. Too much blood, and Davis slips free. Ziam closes on top with punches and elbows.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ziam

Round 3
Back at it. Davis crashes forward with a right hand over the top. Ziam circles off the fence and shoots on the hips. He eventually dumps Davis to the mat. Ziam works in full guard. He stands, hovers above Davis and moves to north-south, firing punches to the body. Ziam stands again and scores with punches and an elbow. Davis gets to his knees. Ziam threatens with an anaconda choke, then settles in half guard. Davis looks spent—and understandably so. Davis gets back to his feet and presses the Frenchman into the cage. They separate. Two punch volley from Ziam, followed by an elbow over the top. He shoots on the hips and dumps Davis to the canvas yet again. Davis goes for a leg lock, but Ziam slips free. Davis gets to top position, in full guard, and opens a serious cut above Ziam’s left eye with a vicious elbow strike. Dark red blood pours from the wound as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ziam (30-27 Ziam)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Ziam (30-27 Ziam)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ziam (30-27 Ziam)

The Official Result
Fares Ziam def. Mike Davis—Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 26, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Mike Davis

Angelo picks Mike Davis, citing his speed, power, athleticism, and well-rounded skills. He notes that Farès Ziam has improved but Davis is a more dangerous striker with better wrestling. He expresses concern about Davis's long layoff due to a bicep injury and his age (32), but still believes Davis wins. He includes Davis in a parlay with Shamil Gaziev.

Included in a parlay with Shamil Gaziev.
"I am picking Mike Davis I think Mike Davis is far more dangerous I think he's a faster more athletic more powerful Striker"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Mike Davis

Big Brady is a fan of Mike Davis but notes his inactivity and injury issues. He thinks Davis has a clear path to victory via wrestling and BJJ, as Farès Ziam has been taken down easily in the past, including seven times by Claudio Puelles. Brady predicts Davis will submit Ziam in the second round, citing Davis's black belt and Ziam's submission losses.

second round submission
"I think Mike Davis is going to tap out far as I am so give me Mike Davis to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Connor picks Ziam, believing his recent performance against Matt Frevola showed significant improvement. He notes that Ziam displayed excellent striking combinations, body work, and clinch transitions, and that he now looks like a complete fighter. Connor thinks Mike Davis, while powerful, makes poor decisions under pressure and relies on wrestling as a crutch, which Ziam can exploit.

"I got to pick Ziam here. Yeah. And the reason is is that David Davis is probably the stronger. He's probably the better athlete just all around. And yeah. Might be an equally capable technician everywhere. Honestly. But he will …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

James picks Ziam to win, but is not confident due to Davis's grappling upside. He notes Ziam has improved recently while Davis may have declined. He thinks Ziam can defend takedowns and win on the feet, possibly by knockout. However, he acknowledges Davis's athleticism and wrestling could be a problem, as seen in Ziam's loss to McKinney. He is undecided on betting.

"I'm going to pick ZM to win the fight I'm not confident in it"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mike Davis

Davis is far superior to Ziam, with a tremendous grappling advantage that will lead to a submission. Despite Ziam's recent improvements, Davis has the striking to be competitive and will eventually get the submission. The line around -140 to -150 is surprising value.

submission, line around -140 to -150
"I'm surprised that we're getting Mike Davis around that minus 140 minus 150 line as I believe he is far superior to Farès Ziam... Davis has the striking to be competitive there but a tremendous advantage in the grappling realm …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 28, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Mike Davis

The MMA Guru picks Mike Davis despite initially leaning toward Ziam. He notes Davis has good entries on takedowns and wicked stand-up, but worries about Ziam's improvements and the takedowns he gave up to Claudio Puelles. He trusts Davis's inactivity means he shows up at 100% and believes Davis is the better fighter overall.

"I'm going to go with Mike Davis... he's one of the fighters where he's so inactive as a prospect I trust he's in 100% capacity when he does actually fight"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Zane picks Ziam, agreeing that his last fight showed a new level of maturity and consistency. He notes that Davis has stagnated and often makes desperate moves when uncomfortable, while Ziam now has the tools to capitalize. Zane acknowledges the risk that Ziam's performance could be a one-off, but believes the improvement is real and that Ziam's well-rounded game will be too much for Davis.

"I'm going to pick the same way. But I think for both of us, this pick is really making the assumption that it was not a one off. Yeah. What we saw from Ziam in Paris."
WIN vs Matt Frevola
KO (knee) R3 2:59 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · Sep 28, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Farès Ziam 1 58 of 94 61% 69 of 107 4 of 4 100% 1 1 4:43
Matt Frevola 0 16 of 59 27% 25 of 72 1 of 3 33% 1 1 2:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Farès Ziam 0 18 of 29 62% 24 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:20
Matt Frevola 0 9 of 22 40% 12 of 27 1 of 3 33% 1 1 1:49
2 Farès Ziam 0 34 of 55 61% 37 of 60 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:10
Matt Frevola 0 7 of 32 21% 12 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
3 Farès Ziam 1 6 of 10 60% 8 of 12 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:13
Matt Frevola 0 0 of 5 0% 1 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Farès Ziam 58 of 94 61% 44 of 77 11 of 14 3 of 3 45 of 75 7 of 9 6 of 10
Matt Frevola 16 of 59 27% 7 of 44 7 of 12 2 of 3 9 of 49 7 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Farès Ziam 18 of 29 62% 12 of 22 5 of 6 1 of 1 13 of 21 4 of 4 1 of 4
Matt Frevola 9 of 22 40% 2 of 14 6 of 7 1 of 1 6 of 17 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Farès Ziam 34 of 55 61% 28 of 47 4 of 6 2 of 2 30 of 48 1 of 3 3 of 4
Matt Frevola 7 of 32 21% 5 of 25 1 of 5 1 of 2 3 of 27 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Farès Ziam 6 of 10 60% 4 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 2 of 2 2 of 2
Matt Frevola 0 of 5 0% 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Matt Frevola vs. Fares Ziam

Round 1
The UFC chose violence in practically every one of these main card tilts, and the carnage starts in the lightweight division. While he has earned all five of his UFC wins at the hands of the judges, Ziam (15-4, 5-2 UFC) is no stranger to the “just scrap” mentality. Frevola (11-4-1, 5-4-1 UFC) would love nothing more than for the two to go buckwild, attacking with everything they have to let the chips fall where they may. Referee Loic Pora steels himself for just such an encounter, as “The Steamrolla” has not left the first round in his last five trips to the Octagon. There is a speedy glove touch before fists fly. Frevola takes the center of the cage, bobbing to the side to let a front kick fly past him. Frevola swings his way into a takedown setup, and this results in a clinch with a number of knees traded on both sides. The Frenchman bails on the tie-up, avoiding two looping hooks to pay Frevola back with a hard overhand right. Frevola digs deep and shoots for a double, switching to a single and putting “Smile Killer” to his seat. Ziam stays defensive with his guard, not letting Frevola get off any offense, until he sits up. Frevola jumps into a guillotine choke, and he rolls to full mount as Ziam is briefly concerned about the submission and thinks about tapping. Instead, Ziam rides it out, and Frevola rides heavily on top while looking for offense. Ziam turns to his side, and Frevola snatches up an armbar. Ziam shifts through it, and Frevola responds with a triangle choke. Ziam lets him have it with three thunderous right hands, forcing Frevola to spin to his side and try to stand back up. Frevola gets his back to the cage, and he locks his hands around the waist to hurl Ziam to the floor. Ziam lands on his knees, stands up and tags Frevola with a right hand. A second power right hand from Ziam stings the New Yorker, and Frevola smiles and tries to go out guns blazing. “The Steamrolla” misses with a huge right hook, and he kicks his way off the fence to launch a Superman punch. Ziam dodges and counters with a right hand, and he scoops an uppercut to the body before hooking up the clinch and kneeing Frevola in the belly. Frevola gives him a pair of knees back to think about, and a third forces a break. Ziam pounds Frevola in the face with a left hand, and he digs hard to the body before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ziam

Round 2
Frevola comes out of his corner loaded for bear, and he lobs two right hands at the Frenchman to reintroduce himself. Ziam jumps back at him with a knee, and Frevola grins and waves his arms in the air. Ziam pins a one-two on the chin, and he doubles up on a jab and goes over the top with a right. Two punches from Ziam lead to a low kick, and he intercepts an advancing Frevola with a left hand. Frevola overswings with bombs, and Ziam is composed and light on his feet to dodge a spinning wheel kick. Frevola just misses with a right hand from his knees, and Ziam is there to jab him up and move well enough to not get tagged with anything of merit. Frevola slings his way into the clinch, and he drops down for a double. Ziam defends it and hacks Frevola in the face with an elbow to force a break, only for Frevola to belt him with an overhand right. Frevola backs Ziam against the wall and unloads with a few punches, and Ziam is unafraid to engage in response. Ziam hammers his man with an elbow, and he uses another to get in close and tie “The Steamrolla” up. Getting turned to the wall, Ziam stays busy with knees until he spins out and elbows Frevola. Frevola comes out swinging, but Ziam sees the strikes coming, dips and pops Frevola in the temple with a left hand. Frevola circles into a head kick and walks into a jab, and he eats three punches while missing with his own. Ziam splits the guard with a jab, and a one-two keeps Frevola guessing as Ziam closes in on him. Ziam tosses Frevola to the floor, where he gets hold of his back and fishes for a rear-naked choke with only one hook in. Frevola guts it out, fights off a subsequent neck crank and whips an elbow from behind his back. The round ends with Ziam landing shots to the side of Frevola’s dome.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ziam

Round 3
Frevola assumes the center of the cage in the final round, likely down on the scorecards with plenty of damage on his face. He leads off with an overhand right, and when Ziam avoids it, he goes for another. Ziam sticks him with a jab, charges at him and hits him with a jump knee. Ziam rushes forward and sweeps the New Yorker off his feet, and he pushes Frevola against the wall when Frevola stands. Ziam succeeds in hitting a mat return, dragging “The Steamrolla” away from the fencing. Frevola scrambles, and Ziam follows him and keeps him stuck on his knees. Frevola bursts back to his feet, and Ziam pulls him down to the floor and briefly takes his back. Frevola spins around and works back to his feet, but Ziam lifts him in the air with a single and puts him down like a little brother. Ziam’s hands are clasped around the waist, with Frevola trying to fight the grip but getting tossed around. Frevola spins around, desperate to get out of this bad spot and gain some space.
Ziam holds on with his right hand, pulling Frevola’s head down into the meanest knee one could ever see. His mouthpiece sent flying, Frevola collapses lifelessly to the mat, out well before his head clatters off the mat. Ziam does not need to do this, but before Pora can pull him off, he hammers Frevola with a few standing-to-ground punches to further seal the deal.
The French faithful erupt in favor of their victorious fighter, who has just authored one of the most brutal knockouts of the year. It takes some time, but Frevola manages to come to, getting to his stool and eventually back to his feet, as many witnessing it breathing a sigh of relief. Ziam has the crowd in the palm of his hands, and he calmly thanks his friends and family as he drinks in what will almost certainly be a $50,000-winning performance.

The Official Result
Fares Ziam def. Matt Frevola R3 2:59 via KO (Knee)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 22, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Angelo picks Farès Ziam as an underdog, surprised he is not the favorite. He believes Ziam's ability to avoid danger and fight a slow, technical fight will frustrate Frevola, who has cardio issues and is not technical enough to win a slow fight. He expects a boring fight where Ziam points his way to victory.

"I'm surprised that Farès is not the favorite... Farès Ziam wins this fight... it's going to be boring, that's how he's going to win."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Matt Frevola

Big Brady picks Matt Frevola by decision, expecting him to use wrestling after seeing Ziam get taken down seven times by Claudio Puelles. He notes Frevola has better striking than Puelles and can mix in takedowns. He is concerned about Frevola's chin but thinks he can win a decision if he wrestles.

Frevola by decision
"give me fola fola by decision I don't think it's going to be like some of his la la like his last five fights have all finished in the first round I think he might go back to uh some …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Cody picks Frevola as an underdog, citing Ziam's poor takedown defense (67%) and Frevola's strong wrestling from a high-level camp. He notes that Ziam has been taken down repeatedly by grapplers, and Frevola's path to victory is to take him down and control him. Frevola's durability is a concern, but Ziam lacks one-punch power.

"I'll take fola because he's the underdog"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Connor picks Frevola because he believes Frevola's pressure, scrambling, and power will overwhelm Ziam, who is a cautious range striker with poor wrestling. He notes that Frevola is dangerous in the pocket and can take down opponents, while Ziam tends to struggle when crowded. Connor also points out that Ziam lacks knockout power at this level and has been submitted by grapplers. He sees Frevola winning by decision or late finish.

Odds: Frevola +112, Ziam -124. Connor expresses surprise that Frevola is an underdog, suggesting he should be a decided favorite.
"It's the right fight to bounce back for Fervola."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Daniel Vreeland picks Matt Frevola to win, believing the line should be flipped. He thinks Frevola hits harder, has better wrestling, and can finish Ziam by KO or submission. He notes Ziam's takedown defense issues and that Frevola has fought taller opponents before. He sees value in Frevola at plus odds.

"I think F win this fight I think the line should be flipped"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

JP picks Matt Frevola because he thinks Farès Ziam is 'cheeks' and doesn't use his reach advantage well. He notes Frevola is a dog who comes forward and throws bombs. He also mentions Frevola is 34 but still has enough left. He thinks Frevola can get inside and land big shots.

"I'm picking fola Steamroller I'm picking the steamroller I can't pick the other guy I think the other guy's cheeks"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Paul agrees, emphasizing that Frevola needs to use his wrestling to win, not chase bonuses. He notes that Ziam's takedown defense is a major red flag, and Frevola's camp (Serra-Longo) has a winning blueprint. Paul predicts Frevola by decision.

"fora for vola by decision is where I'm at on this as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

The MMA Guru picks Matt Frevola over Farès Ziam, citing Frevola's takedown entries and training partners. He criticizes Ziam's losses to Terrence McKinney and lack of finishes. He predicts Frevola will set up takedowns and then catch Ziam for a late first or early second-round KO.

late first round or early second round KO
"I'm going to go Rola get this one done I'm actually going to say he puts the thought of the takedown in zam's mind a little bit by getting a few of them that Zam might get up from and …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Zane picks Frevola because he believes Frevola's pressure and grappling will be too much for Ziam, who is a cautious striker with poor wrestling defense. He notes that Frevola can start slow and warm up, then take over with his pace and power. Zane also points out that Ziam has been submitted by grapplers and lacks the power to keep Frevola off him. He sees Frevola winning a decision or possibly finishing Ziam late.

Odds: Frevola +112, Ziam -124. Zane agrees Frevola should be a favorite.
"Feels like a fight where Fervola can start slow and be cautious and warm up and then start making Zhiyam scramble..."
Decision (split) (28–29, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Feb 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Farès Ziam 0 4 of 9 44% 17 of 27 7 of 13 53% 0 0 7:14
Claudio Puelles 0 31 of 48 64% 58 of 82 0 of 0 --- 1 2 4:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Farès Ziam 0 2 of 4 50% 6 of 9 3 of 5 60% 0 0 3:21
Claudio Puelles 0 9 of 17 52% 18 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
2 Farès Ziam 0 0 of 3 0% 4 of 11 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:39
Claudio Puelles 0 14 of 20 70% 23 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:06
3 Farès Ziam 0 2 of 2 100% 7 of 7 3 of 5 60% 0 0 2:14
Claudio Puelles 0 8 of 11 72% 17 of 24 0 of 0 --- 1 2 1:46
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Farès Ziam 4 of 9 44% 1 of 5 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
Claudio Puelles 31 of 48 64% 23 of 38 6 of 7 2 of 3 5 of 15 2 of 3 24 of 30
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Farès Ziam 2 of 4 50% 1 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Claudio Puelles 9 of 17 52% 8 of 15 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 8 0 of 0 6 of 9
2 Farès Ziam 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Claudio Puelles 14 of 20 70% 11 of 16 3 of 3 0 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 1 12 of 12
3 Farès Ziam 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0
Claudio Puelles 8 of 11 72% 4 of 7 3 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 6 of 9
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Claudio Puelles vs. Fares Ziam
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ziam (-218), Puelles (+180)

Round 1
Former training partners will put any friendship they formed aside from their time under the Kill Cliff FC roof, as grappler Puelles (12-3, 5-2 UFC) reps Peru against French striker Ziam (14-4, 4-2 UFC). The former holds the record for the most kneebars performed in UFC history, while the latter’s primary method of defeat is via submission, but anything is possible in the fight game. The gloves are touched in front of referee Herb Dean, and Ziam leads off with a stern low kick. Puelles shoots in for a single-leg takedown, and although Ziam defends the first attempt, a second effort for “Prince of Peru” gingerly sets Ziam down on his back. Ziam scrambles with all his muster, ultimately getting Puelles back to his butterfly guard. Ziam continues to buck and moves, and he works his way back up as Puelles follows him and nearly takes his back. Puelles forces a mat return, where he lands hard in half guard while hanging on with heavy chest pressure. Ziam nearly kicks him off, and Puelles hooks his foe’s legs beneath his own to keep him stuck. The Frenchman moves to his knees and wall-walks his way back up, and Puelles drags him right back down with his arm interlocked around Ziam’s. Ziam explodes back upright, and Puelles stays tightly pressed to him like a cheap suit until Ziam turns the corner and throws him aside. Puelles whiffs on a pair of chasing punches, and Ziam crowds him with a right up top and a left to the body. Puelles fakes for a takedown and lands a left hand, and as he throws a high kick, Ziam jacks him in the jaw with a jab that sends Puelles down like a sack of potatoes. Ziam rains down ground-and-pound until Puelles recovers enough to start scrambling, and Ziam backs off. Puelles gives chase and shoots for a desperate single, and Ziam stuffs it and walks away. Puelles keeps going after him, and he scoops “Smile Killer” up and makes him frown by slamming him to the mat with a high-amplitude double. Puelles jumps over the top to hunt for a kimura, isolating Ziam’s left arm while sitting on Ziam’s head. Ziam sees it coming and defends it, and Puelles steps all the way over and fishes for a leg lock that does not come before time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ziam

Round 2
The fighters bump fists before getting to it, and Ziam leads the dance early with jabs while not letting Puelles get close. Ziam succeeds in fighting off takedown setups, until Puelles desperately pursues one that ultimately ends up with him landing on his back thanks to a Ziam sweep at the last second. Puelles turns over to his back and leans back to set up a leglock, and Ziam abandons ship before anything is remotely close to coming together. Both men stand up, and Puelles fires off a head kick that bounces off the raised guard. Ziam paws out a low kick, and he steps in with a knee and follows it with a second on the dome. Puelles shoots from afar, and Ziam stops the first effort and fails to halt the second. Puelles slings his man to the mat, and he sits on top in an odd position with Ziam turned partially to his side. This allows Puelles to easily moves into full mount, and Ziam bucks him back to half guard. Puelles frames off to smack Ziam with an elbow, and he smothers from on top to disallow Ziam from escaping. As Ziam turns to his side, Puelles lets him do this so he can jump on Ziam’s back like a malicious backpack. Puelles wraps up a rear-naked choke, and Ziam falls to the ground and turns over to break up the choke. Ziam slows down and tags Puelles with an elbow, and he jumps to the other side to stop Puelles from setting up some maneuver. Ziam briefly unloads with ground-and-pound, mixing in elbows and posturing up at the right moments to not expose him to submission danger. The big punches keep coming until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ziam

Round 3
There is a final glove touch before engagement, and Ziam is quick to flick out his jab to get his range again. Puelles tries to punch his way into a single, and Ziam stops him in his tracks and stands him up. Puelles pushes him back to the wall and knees him in the chest, and Ziam spins around to drive in some knees of his own. Puelles shoots in low for a double, and Ziam keeps his arms locked beneath Puelles groin before snatching up a guillotine choke to threaten with his own offense. Puelles does not seem remotely flustered, turning his neck to the right way before sliding himself out and getting upright again. Puelles shoots and secures a takedown, landing in full guard and otherwise stalling out. When Puelles does try for some offense, Ziam stifles it. The crowd grows restless at Puelles’ damage-free approach, and Ziam sits up and goes for another guillotine. Puelles shakes it off and continues his smothering top control. An awkward scramble results in Puelles sitting on Ziam’s face for a moment, and Ziam keeps moving and pushes “Prince of Peru” to his back. Puelles ties up his guard, and Ziam elbows him in the ribs. Puelles sits up and attempts a reversal, and Ziam nullifies it and postures up to rain down punishment. Ziam delivers some hammering punches and elbows, and Puelles gets to his knees right before time expires. The crowd showers the fighters with boos when it is all over.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ziam (30-27 Ziam)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ziam (30-27 Ziam)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ziam (30-27 Ziam)

The Official Result
Fares Ziam def. Claudio Puelles via Split Decision (28-29, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Angelo picks Ziam, citing his range control and technical striking. He believes Puelles will struggle to get the fight to the ground and may resort to pulling guard. He expresses frustration with Puelles' style but acknowledges his danger on the ground.

may bet on Ziam out of spite
"fram's going to be the pick I think his range control is going to make claudo just frustrated"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 19, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Claudio Puelles

Big Brady picks Claudio Puelles to win by second-round submission, but with low confidence due to Puelles' terrible performance against Dan Hooker. He notes that Ziam is the better striker but has low volume and no power, so Puelles isn't in much danger on the feet. On the mat, Puelles is an incredible grappler with a BJJ black belt, and Ziam has been submitted in three of his four losses. Brady worries about Puelles' wrestling but thinks he can find ways to get the fight down.

Puelles wins by submission in round 2
"I'm actually going to take puus here as a dog hard to have a ton of confidence in the guy after this the crazy stunt he pulled against Dan hooker but you know I think a path is definitely there …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Cody picks Ziam, noting Puelles is a one-trick pony with leg locks and hasn't evolved. Ziam has shown improvements in takedown defense and striking volume. He thinks Ziam keeps the fight upright, lands shots, and tires Puelles out. He acknowledges the leg lock threat but believes Ziam can avoid it.

"the pick is fr oziah"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

The host sees this as a grappler vs. striker matchup, with Puelles being a knee-bar specialist but a sitting duck on the feet. He believes Ziam has shown enough improvement to keep the fight upright and use his kickboxing advantage to outbox and outkick Puelles en route to a decision win.

"I think that we've seen enough improvements from Zam throughout his career that he should be able to keep this fight upright and utilize his kickboxing advantage to outbox out kick and eventually win this fight on the scorecards over …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Ziam. He echoes that Puelles is a one-trick pony with no evolution in his game. Ziam has improved takedown defense and striking. He thinks Ziam will box him up on the feet and avoid the leg locks. He notes Puelles' only path is a leg lock, which is low percentage.

"I'm gonna agree so pis is a guy that was fighting in the UFC he was like 21 years old and then six years later he's now 27 there really is no evolvement to his game"
WIN vs Jai Herbert
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Jul 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Farès Ziam 0 49 of 134 36% 58 of 150 0 of 6 0% 0 0 4:12
Jai Herbert 0 61 of 113 53% 96 of 153 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Farès Ziam 0 14 of 42 33% 15 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:08
Jai Herbert 0 20 of 32 62% 34 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:34
2 Farès Ziam 0 15 of 44 34% 22 of 53 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:04
Jai Herbert 0 20 of 38 52% 34 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:16
3 Farès Ziam 0 20 of 48 41% 21 of 51 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:00
Jai Herbert 0 21 of 43 48% 28 of 52 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Farès Ziam 49 of 134 36% 7 of 79 23 of 31 19 of 24 38 of 119 11 of 15 0 of 0
Jai Herbert 61 of 113 53% 29 of 74 19 of 23 13 of 16 45 of 93 16 of 20 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Farès Ziam 14 of 42 33% 1 of 24 6 of 9 7 of 9 12 of 38 2 of 4 0 of 0
Jai Herbert 20 of 32 62% 8 of 17 8 of 9 4 of 6 13 of 24 7 of 8 0 of 0
2 Farès Ziam 15 of 44 34% 2 of 28 11 of 14 2 of 2 9 of 36 6 of 8 0 of 0
Jai Herbert 20 of 38 52% 12 of 28 6 of 8 2 of 2 14 of 30 6 of 8 0 of 0
3 Farès Ziam 20 of 48 41% 4 of 27 6 of 8 10 of 13 17 of 45 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jai Herbert 21 of 43 48% 9 of 29 5 of 6 7 of 8 18 of 39 3 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jai Herbert vs. Fares Ziam
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ziam (-155), Herbert (+135)

Round 1
Moving right along on this main card, two lightweights hovering around the .500 threshold in the UFC will come to blows. Looking to lift his record to that even mark, Herbert (12-4-1, 2-3-1 UFC) almost certainly wishes to turn this fight into a brawl. Kill Cliff FC rep Ziam (13-4, 3-2 UFC) should mind his P’s and Q’s in this one, as should referee Jason Herzog. Before the melee commences, the fighters touch gloves. Ziam claims the center of the cage, and he measures jabs only to get jabbed in response. Ziam plants a heavy leg kick down low early, and he sneaks out a body kick while getting countered. Herbert swipes out with a left hook, and he splits the guard with a jab. Ziam reaches his man with a body kick, and he skirts away when Herbert kicks him in the calf. Herbert chambers and fires another leg kick, and Ziam reacts poorly from it. Ziam steels himself and lunges with straight punches, and his straight left finds the target a few times. Herbert comes up short by a matter of inches with two looping hooks, but his leg kicks do hit the mark much to the dismay of the Frenchman. As they both try to swing hard at one another, their chests clap together and this results in a clinch. The corner of Herbert continues to shout “head position” like Tito Ortiz shouting for his fighter on “The Ultimate Fighter” to get up. As they jockey for position against the wall, they break off and end up clinched on the other side of the cage wall. Both men think about a potential level change, and this results in a positional stalemate of failed attempts. Herbert gets cracked with a short elbow as he tries to separate, and he walks Ziam down and puts a jab in his face. The French fighter responds in kind, and they proceed to let go with single strikes one after the other. Herbert lands a body kick, and Ziam clips him with a left hook. A front kick from Ziam punctuates the close round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Herbert

Round 2
There is a brief fist bump to start off the round, and the two lightweights ply their trade with jabs. Herbert fires off a left hook in a series of punches, driving Ziam back to the fence. Herbert ups his output, laying into Ziam with strikes to the head and body. Herbert mixes things up with a leg kick, and he dodges a counter and plants his fist on Ziam’s forehead. The momentum from Herbert results in a clinch, but they break out of it and trade fists. Ziam lands the heavier of a strike with a right hand, but “The Black Country Banger” relishes this and wings a right hook back. Herbert again pushes into a clinch, and after a lull, Herbert pushes off and elbows Ziam in the face. Ziam pokes out several jabs, and he blocks a head kick as Herbert comes at him. Again, Herbert ties Ziam up, considering a takedown but unable to get it. Herbert knees the body several times, and Ziam decides to do the same. Ziam gains a full head of steam, and he is able to turn the tables on Herbert by taking him down with ease. Herbert hits a sweep, briefly puts Ziam on his back, and the two scramble back to their feet. Herbert returns to pressing his full weight on his opponent, and Ziam manages to eventually get out of the grip. Ziam knocks the advancing Herbert back with two punches, only to get popped by counters from the Brit. They trade punches, and Herbert jabs his way in and follows it with a head kick. When Herbert charges him, Ziam sneaks up an uppercut, and the grueling round ends in the clinch.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Herbert

Round 3
Coming into the last round, scores could be all over the map. They greet in the center of the cage spamming kicks, trading them one after the other fearlessly. Ziam throws the first punch, and Herbert leans back and kicks at him. Ziam sticks out a jab and takes one back on the chin, and he swipes out with a short hook. Ziam comes up shy of the mark with two big punches, and Herbert sits back and smacks him with a kick on either side of his calf. “Smile Killer” jabs and whips a left hook over the top, and the crowd is growing restless by the relative sparring match after a fairly lackluster event thus far. The fighters proceed to take turns striking at one another, and Ziam connects with a big leg kick that makes Herbert hobble back and shake his leg out. Ziam ends another combination with a thudding kick, and Herbert rushes towards him and ties him up before looking for a body lock takedown. The Frenchman keeps his balance and leans himself against the chain-link fencing, and he manages to turn himself around and stop Herbert from taking his back. Ziam counters with an inside trip, and they both topple to the ground for a second before jumping back up, locked together in a mean-spirited embrace. Ziam secures another trip, and once more Herbert falls over and gets back up. The two split up with 90 seconds to go in the fight, and neither man engages with anything of note. After the lull in activity, they trade leg kicks and jabs, and Ziam wipes his eye as if he was reacting from an eye poke. Herbert does not let him have a moment to take care of it, as he turns his hips into a heavy leg kick. Ziam drops to a knee in a takedown shot, and Herbert easily stands him up and bullies him towards the fence. Ziam spins him around, and he hangs on until this disappointing affair comes to a close after 15 slogging minutes pass. It’s anyone’s guess who will get the nod after this one.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ziam (29-28 Herbert)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ziam (29-28 Ziam)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ziam (29-28 Herbert)

The Official Result
Fares Ziam def. Jai Herbert via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jai Herbert

Angelo thinks Jai Herbert will win by out-pointing in a boring striking match, citing Herbert's power and danger. However, he is concerned about Herbert's poor takedown defense and will not bet on him because of that vulnerability.

"I think Jai Herbert's gonna get it done uh I think he'll out point in a boring striking match"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Big Brady picks Farès Ziam by decision, but says it's his least favorite fight on the card. He notes Ziam is a point fighter with no power but good defense, while Herbert has power but has become tentative after being knocked out multiple times. He thinks Ziam's youth and improvements give him the edge, but expects a boring fight.

by decision
"give me Zion to win like a decision but it's not a fight I'm really looking forward to"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jai Herbert

Cody sees the fighters as similar but notes Ziam showed improved wrestling against Figlak. However, he thinks Herbert's reach advantage and home crowd could sway a close decision. He likes Herbert at +140 as a dog or pass.

"I think a plus 140 can do a lot worse uh in and Underdog than Jai Herbert"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Daniel picks Farès Ziam, citing his durability advantage over Jai Herbert, who has been dropped multiple times. He notes both are long, low-output strikers but Ziam has better defense and more impact. He has been waiting for a highlight-reel KO from Ziam and thinks this could be the fight. He also mentions Ziam's improved grappling and training in jiu-jitsu. He acknowledges Herbert's power but believes Ziam's durability and defense will be the difference.

Daniel says he has been waiting for a highlight-reel KO from Ziam and thinks this weekend might be the time. He mentions the line: Ziam -155, Herbert +135.
"I've been waiting for this highlight reel KO from ferez yam and I think this weekend might be the time he finally gets it"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

The host picks Farès Ziam, citing his youth, improvements, and ability to mix striking with takedowns. He believes Herbert is slowing down and that Ziam will put the hurting on him. He predicts a decision win for Ziam.

"give me Mr ziam to win this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Paul picks Ziam, citing his youth (26 vs 34), improvement, and cardio advantage. He thinks Ziam's volume and durability will overcome Herbert's power. He notes Ziam's similar reach negates Herbert's length advantage.

"I think the French kid's gonna put a beating on him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jai Herbert

The MMA Guru picks Jai Herbert as an underdog, citing his talent and training at Team Renegades with Leon Edwards. He criticizes Farès Ziam for not impressing and notes Herbert's head kick knockdown of Ilia Topuria. The Guru believes Herbert's finishing potential and momentum will lead to a TKO win on the feet, despite his chinny reputation.

TKO
"I'm going with another Underdog I'm going with dry Herbert"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · Sep 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Farès Ziam 0 60 of 108 55% 111 of 162 3 of 7 42% 0 1 6:48
Michał Figlak 0 28 of 96 29% 55 of 126 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Farès Ziam 0 24 of 39 61% 32 of 47 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:25
Michał Figlak 0 15 of 46 32% 25 of 56 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:41
2 Farès Ziam 0 19 of 42 45% 49 of 75 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:23
Michał Figlak 0 5 of 20 25% 15 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
3 Farès Ziam 0 17 of 27 62% 30 of 40 1 of 3 33% 0 1 2:00
Michał Figlak 0 8 of 30 26% 15 of 39 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Farès Ziam 60 of 108 55% 34 of 81 13 of 14 13 of 13 45 of 78 2 of 3 13 of 27
Michał Figlak 28 of 96 29% 13 of 74 9 of 16 6 of 6 25 of 88 0 of 1 3 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Farès Ziam 24 of 39 61% 11 of 25 7 of 8 6 of 6 21 of 34 2 of 2 1 of 3
Michał Figlak 15 of 46 32% 5 of 35 6 of 7 4 of 4 15 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Farès Ziam 19 of 42 45% 13 of 36 4 of 4 2 of 2 12 of 24 0 of 0 7 of 18
Michał Figlak 5 of 20 25% 1 of 12 2 of 6 2 of 2 5 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Farès Ziam 17 of 27 62% 10 of 20 2 of 2 5 of 5 12 of 20 0 of 1 5 of 6
Michał Figlak 8 of 30 26% 7 of 27 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 22 0 of 1 3 of 7
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Michal Figlak vs. Fares Ziam
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Figlak (-195), Ziam (+165)

Round 1
For the second fight in a row, a home country fighter will be representing France against an opponent from a distant land. Unlike Brazil for Miranda, Ziam (12-4, 2-2 UFC) will take on someone from just a few countries east in Europe. Making his debut after an impressive run in Cage Warriors that ended before he could vie for the 155-pound strap, the unbeaten Figlak (8-0, 0-0 UFC), born in Poland but repping England, has been plucked out of that league and into the majors. As a result, Ziam is the only betting underdog of the five men out of France today. Ziam offers a glove touch under the watchful eye of referee Rich Mitchell, but Figlak has no interest and lets the fingers brush off his forearm. Figlak wants to fight, and he comes out pressing forward. Ziam is on his bike early, with Figlak aggressive and throwing hands at him in high intensity. Ziam manages in kickboxing range, with low kicks and jabs, trying take advantage of his range while staying on the outside. “Smile Killer” kills Figlak’s smile with a heavy low kick that bends the knee of his opponent, and Figlak crashes forward only to get popped with a left hook. Ziam follows it with another hard low kick, prompting Figlak to press in for a body lock takedown. Ziam spins him around and dumps Figlak to the mat, where he lands right in side control. The British-based fighter powers his way up to his seat and considers a counter takedown, but it is all so that he can stand back up. Ziam strikes first with his feet when the two are upright again, ripping a low kick on the calf and swinging one to the ribs. Figlak punches his way in with an overhand right, and a left to the body that makes Ziam cough. The unbeaten debutant ignores a few quick left hands so that he can rush in, and Ziam meets him with a standing elbow. Figlak spins with a back elbow that glances off his intended target, and his forward momentum pushes the two up to the wall. They jockey for position, trading knees up against the wire, and Ziam looks to change levels and lift Figlak’s right leg for a single. Figlak keeps his balance, and he stops a trip attempt from the body lock of his opponent. Mitchell tells them to keep fighting as they jockey for position, and as Ziam goes for a throw, they both land on their knees. Figlak counters, only to get tossed to his back. Figlak closes his guard, takes an elbow on the dome that cuts him open on the hairline, and he sets up an armbar with seconds to spare. Ziam rolls all the way through it, fights off a subsequent kimura try, turns to his side and stands up. He takes an upkick on the chest at the bell, and Mitchell leaps in between them so nothing more comes of it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ziam

Round 2
The second round opens with a brief slugfest, as Figlak hopes to start out hot, and Ziam throws cold water on him with a tie-up in the middle of the cage. As Figlak swings for the fences after the break, Ziam targets the body with a kick and a left hand over the top. Figlak responds with a pair of heavy punches that shake the Frenchman up, and Ziam responds with a takedown effort. Ziam lifts Figlak all the way up in the air and slams him down, and as soon as Figlak hits the mat, he snatches the leg and starts fishing for a leglock. The attempts force Ziam to stand back up and reconsider his posture, where he ends up lowering himself back into the guard and easily moving to half guard. Ziam starts working the body from this position, and Figlak sits up as a trickle of blood flows from the bridge of his nose into his right eye. Figlak stays active from his back, hunting for armbars or any kind of submission that keeps Ziam honest, and he manages to drag Ziam back to his guard. “Mad Dog” explodes against the wall, using it to stand back up, and he is ready to trade leather. Figlak walks forward fearlessly to throw hands, and Ziam backs up to the wall and gets clipped with a right hand. Ziam meets him with a knee up the middle, and Figlak drops down to go after a single. Ziam slides his leg out and looks for separation, only for Figlak to chase him to the wall and try to trip him. Out of nowhere, Ziam spins with a back elbow on the temple that rocks the undefeated fighter badly. Figlak wobbles back to the wall, and Ziam bowls him over and starts blasting him with ground-and-pound. Figlak uses his offensive guard to keep Ziam at bay on the mat from anything that could set up a finish, but he can only hold on so long before Ziam shifts into full mount. Time is Ziam’s enemy in this exchange, as he slides off the side and looks for a choke of some kind. There is nothing there before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ziam

Round 3
Ziam opens the final round with several heavy low kicks one after the other, forcing a limp out of the debuting fighter. Ziam sees this and targets it again, and the punches in response from Figlak have a lot less sting on them now. One such powerful kick forces a stance switch out of Figlak, and Ziam does not mind and he kicks the back leg multiple times. As Ziam moves forward, seeing his man is compromised, Figlak meets him in the middle and decides to grab hold of a standing guillotine choke. There is nothing to this, so he ignores a few punches to hit a double. Ziam wall-walks up to his feet before long, and the crowd is thrilled that they are back on the feet again. Figlak slips a punch and clinches up, and Ziam pushes him off and sticks out a jab. Figlak again goes for a body lock, and Ziam is having none of it. Figlak is still in the southpaw stance as a result of the damage absorbed on his left leg, and he cannot plant fully when trying to take Ziam down again. Ziam turns the tables on him, scooping the unbeaten man up and tossing him down to the canvas. Figlak tightly closes his guard, only to suddenly roll for an armbar as Ziam postures up to aim punches from above. Ziam sees it coming and pushes off, and he ends up standing back up. Figlak follows him up, and Ziam cannot take advantage of this position. Figlak shoots for a takedown, and he grounds Ziam and instantly moves to full mount. With sheer strength, the Frenchman reverses Figlak by lifting him off of him and tossing him to the back. Ziam, in half guard, uses shoulder pressure and flirts with an arm-triangle choke, but is more intent on passing to the side. Ziam tries a two-on-one wrist lock to keep him down, but elects to start pounding on Figlak instead. Figlak throws his legs up in desperation for an armbar, and he sits up and dives for a single. Time expires as Ziam is smacking Figlak upside the head, and the underdog Frenchman appears to have scored a significant upset and handed Figlak his first career defeat, all to the delight of a partisan crowd.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ziam (30-27 Ziam)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ziam (30-27 Ziam)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ziam (30-27 Ziam)

The Official Result
Fares Ziam def. Michal Figlak via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2022 (7 days before fight)

Angelo picks Michal Figlak because he expects Figlak to transition to wrestling after getting touched up on the feet, winning a decision. He notes Ziam is a technical striker but lacks power, so he will pot shot his way to a decision if Figlak doesn't wrestle. He thinks Figlak's wrestling will be the difference.

"i see fig lack winning a decision but if he does not transition to that wrestling he can be outstruck"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Big Brady picks Michal Figlak to win by decision. He argues that Figlak's pressure and forward-moving style will give Ziam problems, as Ziam struggles when pressured and prefers to fight on the outside. He also notes Figlak can mix in takedowns. He expects a close fight on the feet but Figlak's pressure and occasional takedowns will earn him the win.

"i like fig lack here i like fig lack to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Cody picks Michal Figlak, praising his constant pressure, boxing combinations, body work, and wrestling. He notes that Figlak is a strong Polish fighter with good cardio and a dogged style. Farès Ziam, on the other hand, has low striking volume (2.06 strikes per minute), poor takedown defense, and has been cut from the UFC before. Cody believes Figlak will overwhelm Ziam with pressure and grappling, and he likes Figlak by late finish or decision. He also mentions the over 2 takedowns prop and the fantasy score over 86.5 on PrizePicks.

Figlak over 2 takedowns; Figlak over 86.5 fantasy points; Figlak wins in round 3 (+1800)
"I got fig like as well i think he goes out there and just constant pressure man... the guy's a junkyard dog for sure."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Daniel Levi picks Farès Ziam as an underdog, betting one unit at +170. He believes Ziam is underrated and that the line should be closer to pick'em. He notes Ziam's sharp kickboxing and improving takedown defense, and thinks Figlak is not a finisher on the ground. He expects Ziam to win a striking match.

"I took ZM plus one seven here one unit only one unit"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)

The host leans towards Figlak due to his grappling advantage, expecting him to close the distance and use clinch work to control Ziam. He acknowledges Ziam's striking superiority but doubts Ziam's takedown defense. However, he is not betting because the line at -200 is too high for a debutant.

"I will still lean Fig like here to win this fight."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul also picks Michal Figlak, agreeing with Cody's assessment. He highlights Figlak's pressure, wrestling, and durability, and notes that Ziam's low output and takedown defense are major weaknesses. Paul likes Figlak to win by decision or late finish, and he has bet Figlak round 3 at +1800.

Figlak wins in round 3 (+1800)
"I got fig like as well i think he goes out there and just constant pressure man... fig lock round three my official pick for the show."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2022 (5 days before fight)

The MMA Guru picks Michal Figlak over Farès Ziam, praising Figlak's pressure, power, and cardio. He notes that Figlak has been consistent and durable, while Ziam has had inconsistent performances and close decisions. He predicts Figlak will win a tough 29-28 decision, as he is always winning rounds and doesn't have to come back from adversity.

Figlak wins by decision 29-28
"i'm going to go with mikhail figlack i like mikael figlac i've been watching him a lot on cage warriors"
Tom Nolan - Fight History
SCHED vs Farès Ziam
13
138 MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

The host picks Ziam, stating that he is the more technical striker and expects the fight to stay on the feet. He believes Ziam will land the better shots and be able to stay safe from Nolan's offense. He notes that Ziam has good takedown defense and uses his long limbs well defensively.

"I'm going to take Aziam to get the win."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

AJ picks Ziam by KO, citing his surgical kickboxing, improved Muay Thai, and veteran savvy. He views Nolan as a step behind in technical striking and believes Ziam's precision and counter-punching will be too much. AJ expects a finish, possibly by KO or club-and-sub, and notes Ziam's experience advantage.

under 2.5 rounds plus 15; Ziam by KO
"I got Farezam over the big train. I think Ferez Zam is fantastic. He's a surgical kickboxer."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Angelo picks Farès Ziam despite being a self-proclaimed hater. He acknowledges Ziam has evolved, becoming more aggressive and technical. He believes Ziam is cleaner and can fight at range or in the pocket, taking advantage of Tom Nolan's recklessness. He notes the fight is closer than the -300 odds suggest.

Odds too wide, thinks fight is closer than -300
"I'm going to pick Vas though because I think he's a little cleaner. I think he can fight at range if he wants to or as we've seen as of late, he can jump into the pocket and fight there …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Big Brady picks Farès Ziam to win by decision. He notes that Ziam has improved rapidly, showing finishing ability and better grappling. He is not impressed with Tom Nolan, who got knocked out quickly and has been dropped. He thinks Ziam is the better fighter overall but doesn't love the price.

by decision
"I'll go far as I'm to win and win by decision."
BU
Bum MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Tom Nolan is a young, maturing fighter with good takedown defense and volume. He will outwork Farès Ziam over three rounds, pushing the pace and landing more strikes. Nolan is likely a slight underdog but has a bright future.

decision win; likely underdog
"Give me Tom Nolan by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Cody is confident in Ziam, citing his technical striking, improved wrestling, and Tom Nolan's poor durability. He notes Nolan has been hurt by lesser fighters and has weak takedown attempts. Ziam's growth and Nolan's chin issues make Ziam a strong pick.

"Zian's going to touch him at some point. He's going to hurt him at some point. He's going to knock him out at some point. I'm rolling with Fro Xian."
FI
Fight Night Picks Expert Confident picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Farès Ziam is picked to win inside the distance because he is the better MMA fighter with improved takedown defense and striking. Tom Nolan is hittable, has poor takedown accuracy (22%), and struggled against Charlie Campbell. Ziam's calculated striking and grappling upgrades make a finish likely, possibly by knockout or submission. The host agrees with the line.

Farès Ziam wins inside the distance (knockout or submission)
"I like FZM to win inside the distance and I actually agree uh with the line. So, give me FZM to finish this fight."
GR
Greedo Plays MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Ziam is on a six-fight win streak against better competition, including wins over Mike Davis and Nazim Sadykhov. Nolan has been fed weaker opponents and hasn't faced anyone of Ziam's caliber. Ziam should outpoint him on the feet and win a decision.

"I'm going to go Zam here. I think Zam wins. The question is, does he get the finish? I'm going to go no. I'm going go decision when for Zion."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Lucrative James picks Farès Ziam, citing his well-rounded skill set, improved fight IQ, and experience. He believes Ziam is one level above Tom Nolan in MMA and will win via decision, as Nolan is durable but likely outclassed over 15 minutes. He notes Nolan's X-factor finishing ability but thinks Ziam's technical striking and clinch game will be too much.

"I'm picking for SCM here. I'm picking him to win this fight via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Ziam has improved takedown defense and a sniper-like striking game. Nolan has poor striking defense and cardio issues. Ziam should pick Nolan apart and finish him in the third round as Nolan slows down. Ziam by third round TKO.

Ziam by TKO in round 3
"I think for the most part, we're going to see ZM pick Nolan apart. I think it'll stop most of the grappling exchanges of Nolan."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Paul picks Ziam by knockout, noting Ziam's well-rounded skills and Nolan's questionable durability. He likes Ziam's sneaky strikes and in-between fighting, and sees Nolan's chin as a major liability. He plans to bet Ziam by KO at +290.

Ziam by knockout at +290
"I like him to win by knockout by like it's like plus 290 out on the market. Um I'll be having a little bit of little bit of fun with that one."
Submission R1 4:08 · UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Sep 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tom Nolan 0 26 of 61 42% 33 of 69 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:34
Charlie Campbell 0 15 of 42 35% 15 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tom Nolan 0 26 of 61 42% 33 of 69 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:34
Charlie Campbell 0 15 of 42 35% 15 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tom Nolan 26 of 61 42% 13 of 35 9 of 20 4 of 6 23 of 55 3 of 6 0 of 0
Charlie Campbell 15 of 42 35% 7 of 30 1 of 5 7 of 7 14 of 39 0 of 1 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tom Nolan 26 of 61 42% 13 of 35 9 of 20 4 of 6 23 of 55 3 of 6 0 of 0
Charlie Campbell 15 of 42 35% 7 of 30 1 of 5 7 of 7 14 of 39 0 of 1 1 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tom Nolan vs. Charlie Campbell
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nolan (-160); Campbell (+130)

Round 1
To kick off the main card, the UFC paired off a couple of strikers who have never landed a submission in their respective careers. “Big Train” Nolan (9-1, 3-1 UFC) wants to keep the Oceania train rolling tonight, and he faces a capable brawler in Campbell (9-2, 2-0 UFC) who wants to deck him in the schnoz. Before the fists fly—and they almost certainly will, in great numbers—referee Jim Perdios has to tell them it’s go time. Fists are bumped, and deep breaths are taken around the building.
Both athletes let their kicks go, seemingly trading them one after the other. They go to the body, and then the lead leg. Campbell chew up the front leg with a few heavy kicks, and he lashes out with a pair of left hands that knock Nolan off his feet. Campbell lets the Aussie up, and he walks face-first into a spinning back elbow. The momentum of Campbell pushing forward results him in inadvertently tackling Nolan to the ground, and he backs off and lets Nolan up again. Campbell goes back to attacking the front leg with a kick, and then mixing things up with one up high. Nolan jumps in the air with a knee, and Campbell intercepts him midair with a low kick. The straight punches of Campbell roped in have bloodied the nose of “Big Train,” who takes a few more shots and fires back with a vengeance. Nolan connects with a hard spinning back kick, stunning “The Cannibal” for a second.
Campbell shakes out of it, and he lets Nolan have it with offense that leads him into a clinch. Campbell breaks out of the tie-up and works the body. Patches of Nolan all over are turning red from the impact of the strikes, and Nolan does not mind one bit as he bites down on his mouthpiece and blasts Campbell in the face. Campbell in zombie mode lurches forward to attack, and Nolan drops him. When
Campbell scrambles to his feet but gives up his back, and Nolan drags him down to the floor from behind. The Aussie quickly sets up a rear-naked choke, and it is under the chin almost immediately. While Campbell thinks about toughing it out, before he loses consciousness, he surrenders.
That marks the first sub win for Nolan, and the first submission defeat for Campbell. Fighters from the area still remain undefeated tonight.

The Official Result
Tom Nolan def. Charlie Campbell R1 4:08 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Angelo picks Tom Nolan over Charlie Campbell, believing Nolan's length, durability, and forward pressure will overcome Campbell's technical striking and leg kicks. He notes that Campbell's leg kicks require planting, which Nolan's movement will prevent. He expects a decision and suggests waiting for round line props.

Expects decision; suggests waiting for round line props.
"I'm going to pick Tom Nolan here. I think technique-wise, he's sort of equal with Charlie, but he's got better defense, or Charlie has better defense, but Tom is long. Tom is lean. Tom is durable. Only actual concern here …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Charlie Campbell

Big Brady picks Charlie Campbell to win by first-round KO. He notes both fighters have power and questionable chins, but Campbell's killer instinct and Nolan's defensive flaws lead him to take the dog. He acknowledges it could go either way.

first round KO
"I'm gonna take the dog and Charlie Campbell. I'm gonna say Charlie Campbell gets an early knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Charlie Campbell

Cody takes Campbell as a dog, citing Nolan's chin issues and poor takedown defense. He notes Campbell has power and can mix in wrestling, and that Nolan's tall frame makes him vulnerable to leg kicks and overhands. He also mentions Nolan's weight cut to 155 may be a factor.

"I'd take a dog shot here on Charlie Campbell"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Connor also picks Nolan, agreeing that Campbell's power is inconsistent and that he doesn't set up his shots. He notes that Nolan is willing to scrap and will put pressure on Campbell, and that Campbell's tendency to fling himself into clinches will play into Nolan's hands. Connor thinks Nolan's chin is not great but good enough to withstand Campbell's power, and that Nolan's volume will win out.

"I guess I'll take Nolan too."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Charlie Campbell

James picks his friend Charlie Campbell, citing Campbell's striking ability and familiarity with Nolan from sparring. He believes Campbell has the power to knock out Nolan, who has been wobbled before. He is confident in Campbell's skills and rooting for him.

"I think Charlie has the chance to land clean on Tom Nolan and we've seen Tom Nolan knocked out before."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

The host expects Nolan's power to come through. He thinks Nolan will counter Campbell effectively, land big shots, mix in takedowns and threaten with a front choke, but ultimately a knee or elbow will connect and put Campbell out clean.

win by knockout (knee or elbow)
"I expect Nolan's power to end up coming through here. I think he'll be able to counter Campbell effectively, land some big shots, maybe mix in some takedowns and threaten with that front choke, but I think it'll ultimately be …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

The Guru picks Tom Nolan, citing his height and reach advantage over Charlie Campbell, as well as Nolan's momentum and development. He notes Campbell's inactivity and believes Nolan's diverse striking (spinning kicks, low kicks) will be too much. He predicts a second-round TKO.

second round TKO
"I'm going with Tom Nolan over Charlie Campbell."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Zane picks Nolan, reasoning that Nolan is willing to scrap and will put pressure on Campbell, sitting down in the pocket and throwing tight combinations. He notes that Nolan has clinch offense and will attack off his back if taken down. Zane thinks Campbell's power is chancy and that he doesn't set up his shots well, making him vulnerable to Nolan's volume and pressure.

"I think I'll go with Nolan."
CANCEL vs Evan Elder
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 312: du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · Feb 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tom Nolan 0 69 of 175 39% 111 of 236 1 of 8 12% 3 0 2:01
Viacheslav Borshchev 0 66 of 118 55% 92 of 163 0 of 0 --- 1 0 3:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tom Nolan 0 27 of 64 42% 29 of 67 0 of 3 0% 2 0 1:25
Viacheslav Borshchev 0 19 of 29 65% 19 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tom Nolan 0 26 of 67 38% 28 of 70 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:36
Viacheslav Borshchev 0 37 of 62 59% 37 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Tom Nolan 0 16 of 44 36% 54 of 99 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Viacheslav Borshchev 0 10 of 27 37% 36 of 71 0 of 0 --- 1 0 3:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tom Nolan 69 of 175 39% 43 of 130 11 of 23 15 of 22 63 of 163 5 of 11 1 of 1
Viacheslav Borshchev 66 of 118 55% 20 of 67 26 of 31 20 of 20 61 of 106 1 of 4 4 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tom Nolan 27 of 64 42% 13 of 46 6 of 10 8 of 8 24 of 58 2 of 5 1 of 1
Viacheslav Borshchev 19 of 29 65% 7 of 16 7 of 8 5 of 5 19 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tom Nolan 26 of 67 38% 19 of 49 2 of 8 5 of 10 25 of 65 1 of 2 0 of 0
Viacheslav Borshchev 37 of 62 59% 8 of 29 16 of 20 13 of 13 35 of 57 1 of 4 1 of 1
3 Tom Nolan 16 of 44 36% 11 of 35 3 of 5 2 of 4 14 of 40 2 of 4 0 of 0
Viacheslav Borshchev 10 of 27 37% 5 of 22 3 of 3 2 of 2 7 of 20 0 of 0 3 of 7
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Viacheslav Borshchev vs. Tom Nolan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Borshchev (-135), Nolan (+114)

Round 1
It’s knock out or get knocked out in this lightweight pairing, as the two men involved in the collision celebrate all of their respective stoppage wins via strikes. Chins will be tested as “Big Train” Nolan (8-1, 2-1 UFC) crashes into Team Alpha Male’s Borshchev (8-4-1, 3-3-1 UFC), and sparks will fly before the very eyes of referee Marc Goddard. Before trying to lop one another’s head off, the two men bump fists. Nolan pushes off a front kick, and when Borshchev grabs it, the Aussie twirls around and takes a flush body shot. Borshchev gets right in front of Nolan, tossing a leg kick and leaning back to dodge a head kick. Nolan chips at the front leg and winds up with a kick to the body, setting up a takedown effort. Borshchev breaks free, but not before taking a few knees off the face. Nolan kicks his foe up high, and he ducks a punch in hopes of trying to use a body lock to take “Slava” down. Borshchev bounces back upright, and he takes a knee on the face while bent over. Nolan leaps on the back while Borshchev is standing and starts hunting for rear-naked chokes, and Borshchev leans over to try to buck him off. Instead of getting through that, Nolan whips Borshchev to the back, and he snatches up a brabo choke to the surprise of the Team Alpha Male fighter. Nolan wraps the choke up on the other side, and Borshchev turns on his back to keep himself in the fight. Nolan rings his foe’s bell with a 12-6 elbow, but Borshchev still has the wherewithal to explode to his feet and dodge a spinning wheel kick. When Nolan peppers with jabs, Borshchev goes to the lead leg with a few kicks. Nolan lifts a high kick up that connects into the beard, and he rings a few punches together to redden the nose of “Slava Claus.” Nolan times a turning Borshchev to kick him in the ribs, and he gets off a second kick there before tossing two low. Borshchev bears down on him angrily, drilling him in the face with punches until he has to duck a spinning back fist. Borshchev puts his hands on Nolan, leading a right hand to a head kick before shooting. Borshchev keeps the takedown at bay and also protects from a wheel kick, and he ducks into a knee. Nolan chips at the front leg and is pushed back to the fence with a kick. Nolan sees a spinning strike coming, whiffs on a head kick and the two hear the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nolan
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nolan
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Nolan

Round 2
The fighters tap hands together, and it is Nolan who prods out a kick first. Nolan uses that push kick to set up two more and a back fist, and Borshchev remains composed without absorbing any of them flush. Nolan spins with a back fist and torques the other direction to reenact the strikes that Sharabutdin Magomedov pulled off last year, but Borshchev’s chin is granite and he does not budge. Nolan spins with an elbow and sells out for them, and Borshchev allows him to do this so he can punch his way into a combo. Nolan comes back at him with a head kick, and “Slava Claus” dodges and weaves the remainder of the fists that fly. Borshchev digs a kick to the breadbasket and then aims another kick to the same spot, and his stomping oblique kicks further frustrate the taller man. Nolan jams a front kick to the gut, and the two mix up their kicks until Borshchev breaks that successive series of kicks with an overhand right. Nolan kicks low again, and they stun one another with single power punches. Nolan leaps in the air with a knee that buzzes Borshchev’s face, and he spins with a back fist at the right time. Borshchev tanks it and drills him with a right hand, and his takedown defense holds up to keep his back to the wall. On Nolan’s second effort, Borshchev hits the deck, and Nolan snatches up a brabo choke as soon as Borshchev is on the mat. Borshchev turns to break out of the submission, fight his way up and start brawling. Nolan does not want to get into this reckless exchange, so he moves to the side to reset. Both men square up and tag one another, and Nolan’s step-in knee is a cherry on top. Borshchev wraps a left hand around the guard, and Nolan counters him with a sharp left. Borshchev tries to toss out three spinning wheel kicks, making Nolan smile before the round wraps up.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nolan
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nolan
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Nolan

Round 3
The lightweights hug, and the last round is here. Borshchev is the more aggressive of the two, hurling kicks and big punches. A sharp Nolan clips Borshchev coming towards him a few times, but it does not enough to shake Borshchev up or mess with his takedown defense, as Borshchev is a short wall of stone. Borshchev bowls Nolan over to his back, and Nolan nails him with two upkicks. As Borshchev is peppering the legs a few times, Nolan turns to his side and blasts Borshchev in the face with the ball of his foot. Nolan is allowed to stand, and he thanks Goddard and Borshchev for this by spinning for a back fist. Nolan doubles up on the spin, and his head kick that follows lumps “Slava Claus” up. As Nolan is feeling himself, he pitches a kick that bangs square into Borshchev’s cup, forcing a stoppage of 30 seconds before Borshchev is good to go. Borshchev starts back up with a brawl, and he swings himself off-balance and wide open for a knee that pounds into the side of his head. Nolan rolls to his back, and Borshchev whips kicks down low at him. Nolan gets away with an illegal upkick as Borshchev on his knees, and he follows Nolan rolling over so he can start up some ground offense. Nolan remains busier from his back, hacking with elbow and swinging with wide-arcing hammerfists to not let Borshchev lay into him. Borshchev’s raining strikes fall short, bouncing into the chest. Nolan flails his legs up again, slashing open a cut on the top of Borshchev’s melon with a surprisingly effective upkick. Borshchev lowers himself into the guard, and he sways back and forth and starts motioning that Nolan’s offense is not doing anything. Nolan ignores his signals and swinging with elbows and punches from his back, while Borshchev is laying into him with open left hands. The wild strikes from Nolan shred Borshchev’s face up, and Borshchev falls to his back and latches on with a leglock. The Aussie laughs at him, and the fight ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Borshchev (29-28 Nolan)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Borshchev (29-28 Nolan)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Borshchev (29-28 Nolan)

The Official Result
Tom Nolan def. Viacheslav Borshchev via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Big Brady flipped his pick to Tom Nolan, citing Nolan's youth, size advantage, and the hometown factor in Australia. He notes that Borshchev has poor takedown defense and may struggle with the long flight. However, he questions Nolan's chin, as he was dropped by Victor Martinez. Brady thinks someone will get knocked out and predicts Nolan by second-round knockout, but he is not confident.

"I'll say Tom Nolan wins this fight by second round knockout but I think somebody's getting served in this one"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Viacheslav Borshchev

Borshchev will control the pace, counter Nolan effectively, and take advantage of his poor striking defense. He is expected to pick Nolan apart and find a finish around the second round. The pick is for Borshchev to win by knockout or TKO.

finish in round 2
"I think we'll see borchev control the pace of this matchup counter Nolan effectively and take advantage of his poor striking defense which will lead to borchev eventually picking him apart and finding that finish around that second round mark"
WIN vs Alex Reyes
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tom Nolan 0 84 of 176 47% 104 of 198 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:22
Alex Reyes 0 69 of 140 49% 89 of 161 2 of 5 40% 0 0 4:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tom Nolan 0 23 of 62 37% 25 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Reyes 0 23 of 43 53% 26 of 47 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:29
2 Tom Nolan 0 32 of 63 50% 40 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Reyes 0 27 of 55 49% 28 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:56
3 Tom Nolan 0 29 of 51 56% 39 of 63 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:22
Alex Reyes 0 19 of 42 45% 35 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tom Nolan 84 of 176 47% 40 of 112 32 of 49 12 of 15 58 of 141 26 of 33 0 of 2
Alex Reyes 69 of 140 49% 30 of 87 21 of 33 18 of 20 52 of 114 16 of 25 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tom Nolan 23 of 62 37% 10 of 40 10 of 19 3 of 3 16 of 51 7 of 9 0 of 2
Alex Reyes 23 of 43 53% 8 of 22 7 of 13 8 of 8 17 of 35 5 of 7 1 of 1
2 Tom Nolan 32 of 63 50% 18 of 42 10 of 15 4 of 6 22 of 51 10 of 12 0 of 0
Alex Reyes 27 of 55 49% 13 of 37 7 of 10 7 of 8 21 of 45 6 of 10 0 of 0
3 Tom Nolan 29 of 51 56% 12 of 30 12 of 15 5 of 6 20 of 39 9 of 12 0 of 0
Alex Reyes 19 of 42 45% 9 of 28 7 of 10 3 of 4 14 of 34 5 of 8 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tom Nolan vs. Alex Reyes
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nolan (-1350), Reyes (+800)

Round 1
The UFC knew exactly what it was doing when matching this next affair, and bettors have seen right through the charade. With odds as high as -1500, power-punching Aussie Nolan (7-1, 1-1 UFC) is largely expected to run over Reyes (13-4, 0-2 UFC) while living up to his nickname of “Big Train.” Reyes has not won a fight since 2017, although he took six years away from the sport due to an infection in his spine. This sport always surprises, and Reyes does sport a 100% finish rate on his own ledger. Before fists fly, the lightweights meet in the middle to tap them while referee Rich Mitchell watches on stoically, ready to step in at a moment’s notice. Nolan walks Reyes down right out of the gate, absorbing a body kick as he works his way forward. Reyes jabs out with his toe extended with a kick, and he chains together a few punches into another kick. Nolan backs him off with a head kick try, but Reyes comes at him with a low kick and punches. Nolan zings a spinning wheel kick on the side of the head, and Reyes frowns and kicks the body. Nolan kicks him back in the side, and he has a head kick bump off the guard. Nolan surges into attack, and Reyes times this blitz so he can take him down easily and take his back while Nolan stands. Reyes slides off the back but holds on from behind, and Nolan grabs the cage to not get pulled away from it. Nolan turns himself about in the clinch, and he gets off an elbow on the inside but is dragged to the mat. Reyes keeps one hook in, only to slide out the back door. Nolan bursts a kick out and pushes Reyes over, and he charges wildly with a knee and a few punches before the underdog ties him up again. Reyes rings him up with two punches, and Nolan gets space and sprints to jump at him with a knee. Nolan slashes out with an elbow, and the two kick at the same time. Reyes misses with a head kick, and he takes deep breaths. Nolan stomps with a kick aimed at the knee, and Reyes responds with a right hand to the body. Nolan spins but does not land anything, and the two start brawling. The overwhelming favorite gets his bell rung and he backs off, but he fires off a few strikes to keep Reyes honest. Reyes backs off and dodges a wheel kick, and he flicks out a front kick. Nolan kicks the body twice and whiffs on a spinning back fist, and he guards himself from a combination and stops a takedown with a knee up the middle. Reyes backs off to gather himself, and they kick at the same time and hit the ground. Nolan somersaults himself backwards, and when he is on his knees, Reyes drills him with a knee illegally. Mitchell sees the foul and calls time, issuing a hard warning without deducting a point. Nolan does not appear compromised, and when they get back to it, he lashes out with a jump knee as the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nolan
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Reyes
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nolan

Round 2
There is a touch of gloves from the lightweights to get the second stanza going, and they do not take long to start trading. Nolan lands a few punches and sticks out a few kicks, and he twirls around to smack Reyes in the face with a back fist. Reyes gets his hands on him and clinches, and they dirty box and bang heads together as Mitchell warns them. They split apart, and Reyes darts away to avoid a spin. Nolan keeps stalking forward, letting go with a wheel kick, and Reyes is able to block it. Nolan attacks with power strikes, and Reyes stands firm and elbows him in the dome. Simultaneous kicks land, and Nolan recovers faster and sticks Reyes with a left hand that sets Reyes on his seat. Reyes jumps back up, absorbs a flush jump knee and looks for an overhand right. Nolan jabs and follows with a cross, stinging Reyes again. Reyes recovers to counter, and he even tries a spinning back fist, but it lands on the trapezius muscles. Reyes aims a one-two and is countered with a right hand, and Nolan prepares check knees to stop Reyes from considering a level change. Nolan walks through a right hand as he keeps the pressure on the underdog, cutting Reyes off and checking a low kick. Reyes grabs him and turns him to the fencing, looking for a body lock takedown and settling for trip attempts while clasping his hands from behind. Nolan spins around to break up the grip, elbowing Reyes with short strikes that bust his nose open. Reyes splits off and absorbs a hard spinning kick to his ribs, and he blocks a head kick in the nick of time. Nolan counters a right hand with a step-in knee, and he parries a body kick but takes a right hand flush. Nolan chips at the lead leg, and he spins with a back fist and checks another kick. “Big Train” stands Reyes up with a one-two, and he puts punches together as Reyes tanks them but is bloodied up. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nolan
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nolan
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nolan

Round 3
A final glove touch opens up the last round, and Nolan is kicking early and often. Reyes throws one kick of his own before Nolan busts him in the nose with a short left. Reyes reaches his man with a looping right, but Nolan does not even register it and marches ever-forward to do damage. Nolan connects with a leg kick and blocks a high kick aimed at his direction, and he stops a takedown effort only for a body kick to land cleanly. Nolan punts Reyes in the guts, and Reyes keeps a stiff upper lip and retaliates with a big right hook. Reyes tries to slow down his man with a calf kick, only for Nolan to laugh it off and walk towards him. A short combo lands from Reyes, who blocks a body kick and eats a jump knee. Nolan lands a hard body kick, and Reyes does the same. When Nolan spins, Reyes times a takedown, and this results in Nolan setting up a brabo choke while standing. Nolan uses the submission to wrench Reyes to the floor, and lets it go when it is clear Reyes is not in imminent danger. Reyes works to his feet and pushes into a clinch, ducking under to grab Nolan from behind and lean Nolan against the fence. Nolan elbows him in the nose several times to cause blood to flow, and he turns himself around. They trade elbows from close, and their foreheads clack together. Reyes knees the body and is clipped by a spinning elbow, but he is tough as a two-dollar steak and remains in the fight. Elbows continue to land on one another until Reyes shoots, but Nolan is an Australian wall not going anywhere. With seconds to spare, Reyes lets his man have it, throwing caution to the wind with one final flurry. Nolan does the same, and they swing it out and surprisingly have fought a full 15 minutes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nolan (30-27 Nolan)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nolan (29-28 Nolan)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nolan (30-27 Nolan)

The Official Result
Tom Nolan def. Alex Reyes via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 11, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Angelo is extremely confident Tom Nolan will win, calling him a -1000 favorite who should win 98% of the time. He mocks the idea of betting on Nolan at those odds sarcastically, but clearly believes Nolan will steamroll Alex Reyes, who has been out for six years with health issues and looked stiff and chinny in his return. Angelo sees no path for Reyes and considers this a mismatch.

Sarcastically mentions mortgaging the house; no real bet due to extreme odds
"Tom Nolan steamrolls here he he mean he steamrolls here I have no idea how Alex Ray in the UFC let alone on a pay-per-view again."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Big Brady picks Tom Nolan to win by first-round knockout. He criticizes the matchmaking, calling it a fight that shouldn't be sanctioned, as Alex Reyes has fought only three times in seven years and hasn't won in nearly seven years. He notes Nolan is 13 years younger, has a massive height advantage, and is a huge favorite. He believes Nolan will get a vicious first-round knockout, though he acknowledges Nolan is hittable and maybe chinny, but Reyes is unlikely to knock him out.

knockout in round 1
"this is Tom Nolan this is Tom Nolan by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Cody believes Nolan will win easily but is concerned about his chin after being knocked out in his debut. He notes that Reyes is 37, has fought once in seven years, and has been knocked out in the first round in his last two fights. Cody expects a first-round finish but says the price is too high to bet.

"Nolan is the pick but minus 1150"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Daniel Vreeland picks Tom Nolan to win by first-round knockout, noting that Reyes is a washed-up fighter who doesn't belong in the UFC. He acknowledges Nolan's defensive lapses but believes the matchup is predatory and that Nolan will finish early.

round 1 knockout
"I think Tom Nolan's gonna knock him out in the first round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

The host is confident in Nolan, citing his size, striking, and youth. He notes Nolan's knockout power and knee up the middle, while dismissing Reyes as past his prime and on a losing streak. He expects a first-round knockout, but warns against betting the heavy chalk due to volatility.

Nolan by knockout, Nolan in round 1
"I'd be very surprised if Tom Nolan ends up fumbling the bag here and loses to a guy like Alex Reyes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Paul agrees that Nolan should win easily, calling Reyes a 'freebie fight' for the UFC to build Nolan up. He notes Nolan's size and youth advantage, and that Reyes has been inactive and knocked out recently. Paul says Nolan is the pick but the price is ludicrous.

"Nolan's the pick but Nolan's the pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

The MMA Guru picks Tom Nolan over Alex Reyes. He notes that Reyes is 37 years old, coming off a KO loss to Charlie Campbell after a long layoff, and has had many injuries. He contrasts Reyes' career timeline, starting his pro career in 2007, with Nolan's debut in 2020, calling Reyes a different generation. He acknowledges Nolan has a chin issue but believes his length and youth will prevail. He expects Nolan to win via KO or decision.

"I'm going to go with Tom Nolan like he's literally started his career three years after this guy's second to last fight"
TKO (knee to the body and punches) R1 3:50 · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · May 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tom Nolan 1 18 of 26 69% 20 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:48
Victor Martinez 0 33 of 64 51% 41 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tom Nolan 1 18 of 26 69% 20 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:48
Victor Martinez 0 33 of 64 51% 41 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tom Nolan 18 of 26 69% 6 of 12 7 of 9 5 of 5 16 of 23 1 of 1 1 of 2
Victor Martinez 33 of 64 51% 14 of 38 13 of 20 6 of 6 29 of 58 0 of 1 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tom Nolan 18 of 26 69% 6 of 12 7 of 9 5 of 5 16 of 23 1 of 1 1 of 2
Victor Martinez 33 of 64 51% 14 of 38 13 of 20 6 of 6 29 of 58 0 of 1 4 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Victor Martinez vs. Tom Nolan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nolan (-500), Martinez (+380)

Round 1
The prelims conclude with two lightweights that combine for 12 knockouts in their 19 pro wins, with zero submissions between them. Martinez (13-5, 0-1 UFC) and Nolan (6-1, 0-1 UFC) both came up short in their UFC debuts, with first-round knockout losses introducing them to the UFC brass. Taking charge of the cage will be referee Mark Smith, who checks the fighters in as they decide to touch gloves. Nolan says hello with a front kick, and when that misses, he releases a low kick and then another front kick that connects. Martinez crowds him with a one-two, and Nolan keeps kicking. The Aussie spins with a wheel kick, and Martinez scoots out of the way. The two men trade low kicks, and Nolan lands two more for good measure. When Nolan attacks, Martinez gets off his own leg kicks that disrupt the movement of the taller man. Nolan peppers the Texan with kicks to all targets, and he flicks out a jab before jumping forward with a knee that just misses. Martinez comes back with a one-two, and he eats a body kick when trying another. Nolan digs another kick to the ribs before chopping at the lead wheel, only to step in with a fierce knee. Martinez jabs and lands a leg kick, and Nolan does work with his kicks. Nolan gets off a left hand, and he is driven back by a one-two from “The Brick.” Nolan dodges a punch and fires back a right hand that lands cleanly, and he chews up his foe with all the kicks he can find. Nolan spins with a wheel kick, and when he lands, Martinez charges him and busts him in the chops with a shovel hook. Nolan stumbles back and falls over, and Martinez climbs on top of him in hopes of finishing the job. Nolan’s long legs allow him to tie Martinez up and even consider a triangle choke, and elbows off his back slash Martinez open. Nolan explodes back to his feet, and Martinez follows him up and races at his resetting foe.
Nolan times a perfect knee to the liver, and “The Brick” crumbles to the floor in agony. Nolan finishes the job with a few left hands as Smith has seen enough
, and he walks away with pride, pointing at his knee and going over to the commentary booth to tell them he called it. This is an important victory for the Aussie, who has now earned his last five wins via strikes.

The Official Result
Tom Nolan def. Victor Martinez R1 3:50 via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Angelo sees Tom Nolan as the more technical striker with length and pressure, while Victor Martinez is a fast, powerful boxer with poor kicks that can be caught. Nolan's takedown defense is a concern, but Martinez's BJJ defense and scramble skills are decent. Angelo picks Nolan but warns against including him in parlays due to his UFC debut and winless record.

"Tom Nolan should be much much better here the length will be an issue the technical skills will likely be be an issue"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Cody believes Nolan is a legitimate prospect with nasty striking and good size for the weight class. He notes Martinez has had only two fights in four years, was knocked out by Jordan Leavitt, and lacks durability. Cody thinks Nolan's speed, length, and cardio will be too much, and he expects Nolan to win, though he warns about Nolan's chin after the Mota loss.

"Tom Nolan's the player."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Martinez was knocked out in his UFC debut and lacks power. Nolan has a significant height and reach advantage and will take a kick-heavy approach to chop away at Martinez's legs. Nolan should be more disciplined after his loss and can land knees up the middle as Martinez throws overhands. The line is wide but Nolan should win.

Inside the distance or knockout prop for Nolan.
"I'm going to go with Australian here and I you know minus 500 a little bit wide for somebody still so young in their career but I'll be taking a look at the inside the distance odds maybe even The …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Paul acknowledges the big question marks around Nolan after his knockout loss to Nicholas Mota, but notes Martinez has been knocked out by Jordan Leavitt, who has little power. He sees Nolan as the better athlete with more tools, but the -475 price is too steep to get heavily involved. Paul will pick Nolan but not bet much.

"Tom Nolan will be the pick."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

The MMA Guru picks Tom Nolan to finish Victor Martinez, likely by TKO in the second round. He notes that Martinez has losses to fighters he doesn't rate, including a TKO loss to Jordan Leavitt. He believes Nolan is a more consistent finisher and will be patient, finding his spots after learning from his first UFC loss.

TKO
"I'm gonna go with Tom Nolan here over Victor Martinez Victor Martinez is a guy who's lost to some people that I just don't rate as Fighters"
LOSS vs Nikolas Motta
TKO (punches) R1 1:03 · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Jan 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikolas Motta 1 21 of 40 52% 21 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Tom Nolan 0 12 of 20 60% 12 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikolas Motta 1 21 of 40 52% 21 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Tom Nolan 0 12 of 20 60% 12 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikolas Motta 21 of 40 52% 19 of 35 2 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 19 0 of 1 13 of 20
Tom Nolan 12 of 20 60% 5 of 13 5 of 5 2 of 2 11 of 18 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikolas Motta 21 of 40 52% 19 of 35 2 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 19 0 of 1 13 of 20
Tom Nolan 12 of 20 60% 5 of 13 5 of 5 2 of 2 11 of 18 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Nikolas Motta vs. Tom Nolan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nolan (-298), Motta (+240)

Round 1
Two power-punching lightweights enter the Octagon to make some waves. Motta (13-5, 1 NC; 1-2, 1 NC UFC) may be fighting for his job, depending on the result, while unbested Aussie Nolan (6-0, 0-0 UFC) wants to leave a lasting impression in his promotional debut. Referee Dan Miragliotta draws the charge for this fight that might not need the full 15 minutes, and it opens up with a glove touch from the two combatants. Nolan quickly whips a leg kick on the inside, and he follows it with two punches. Nolan crowds his man and swings hard, and Motta bites down on his mouthpiece and throws back with a vengeance. Nolan sits down on a few kicks as he mixes in punches, while Motta fires off two body kicks that land with loud slaps. Motta takes a few punches on the chin, says “please sir, may I have some more,” and retaliates with a left hand and a vicious right that drops the unbeaten Australian to his seat.
Nolan turns over and tries to survive, but Motta follows him and proceeds to batter him with right hands. The thudding punches continue to connect on the side of the head, and Nolan is showing no signs of recovering at this point. Miragliotta recognizes this and intervenes,
and Nolan thinks about protesting but decides against it as his circuits are still somewhat scrambled. Motta rushes off and proceeds to celebrate with his eclectic corner of Ray Sefo, Jake Shields and Julian Erosa.

The Official Result
Nikolas Motta def. Tom Nolan R1 1:03 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 6, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Angelo picks Tom Nolan, believing he is the better striker with good accuracy, power, and pressure. He notes Nolan's poor takedown defense but thinks Motta won't exploit it as he averages zero takedowns per fight. He is slightly concerned about Motta's veteran savvy and explosive striking, and finds the -330 odds too steep for a UFC debutant. He plans to leave the fight alone rather than bet.

"I'm still going to go Nolan here though I do think Nolan is the better Striker."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Big Brady acknowledges Tom Nolan's defensive flaws but believes Nikolas Motta's confidence and durability are shot. He notes Motta has been knocked out repeatedly and even struggled against low-output fighters. Brady expects Nolan's power and aggression to overwhelm Motta, predicting a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"I'm going to take Tom Nolan knock out a very chinny Nicholas Moda and I think it comes in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Cody picks Nolan but is hesitant, noting that Motta is a shell of himself and has lost confidence. He acknowledges Nolan's inexperience and defensive flaws, but believes Motta's recent performances are so poor that Nolan can win. He says it's a trappy fight and he's not confident.

"it's going to be a Tom Nolan pick for the parlays"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Daniel Vreeland picks Tom Nolan to win, but is hesitant due to Nolan's inexperience. He compares Nolan to a green Carlos Condit, praising his length and variety of strikes. Vreeland worries about Nolan making rookie mistakes against the experienced Motta, who has knockout power. He thinks Nolan can get a finish if he avoids Motta's big hooks.

"I'm gonna pick him to win this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Oct 1, 2025 (fight day)

James does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Tom Nolan is an undefeated 23-year-old with a massive 6'3" frame and 76-inch reach, giving him a significant height and reach advantage over Motta. He earned his UFC contract by destroying Bogdan Grad on the Contender Series, showcasing his speed and power. Motta has durability issues and has been hurt in multiple fights, which Nolan can exploit. I expect Nolan to use his physical advantages to brutalize Motta and finish him inside the first round by KO. The minus 330 line is a bit steep for a debutant, but the matchup favors Nolan heavily.

Nolan inside the distance, by KO
"I think Nolan has the power the youth the durability um and the explosivity to land on Mota and get him out of there so give me Nolan inside the distance I'm going to say by KO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Paul picks Nolan as a fade of Motta, noting that Motta's durability and confidence are gone. He says he has no intention of betting Motta and that Nolan is unproven but likely wins. He calls it a trappy fight and is not confident.

"it's a it's a mod of fade Tom Nolan for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

The MMA Guru picks Tom Nolan, highlighting his size, reach, and finishing ability. He notes that Nikolas Motta has been too finishable recently, with KO losses to Manel Torres, Trey Ogden, and Jim Miller. He believes Nolan's power and size will catch Motta's chin and put him away by TKO.

TKO
"I'm going with Tom Nolan... I feel like Tom Nolan big enough powerful enough dangerous enough in the first round to catch Nicholas motter on that chin and put him away by TKO"
Expert Picks (11)
13
138 MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

The host picks Ziam, stating that he is the more technical striker and expects the fight to stay on the feet. He believes Ziam will land the better shots and be able to stay safe from Nolan's offense. He notes that Ziam has good takedown defense and uses his long limbs well defensively.

"I'm going to take Aziam to get the win."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

AJ picks Ziam by KO, citing his surgical kickboxing, improved Muay Thai, and veteran savvy. He views Nolan as a step behind in technical striking and believes Ziam's precision and counter-punching will be too much. AJ expects a finish, possibly by KO or club-and-sub, and notes Ziam's experience advantage.

under 2.5 rounds plus 15; Ziam by KO
"I got Farezam over the big train. I think Ferez Zam is fantastic. He's a surgical kickboxer."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Angelo picks Farès Ziam despite being a self-proclaimed hater. He acknowledges Ziam has evolved, becoming more aggressive and technical. He believes Ziam is cleaner and can fight at range or in the pocket, taking advantage of Tom Nolan's recklessness. He notes the fight is closer than the -300 odds suggest.

Odds too wide, thinks fight is closer than -300
"I'm going to pick Vas though because I think he's a little cleaner. I think he can fight at range if he wants to or as we've seen as of late, he can jump into the pocket and fight there as well."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Big Brady picks Farès Ziam to win by decision. He notes that Ziam has improved rapidly, showing finishing ability and better grappling. He is not impressed with Tom Nolan, who got knocked out quickly and has been dropped. He thinks Ziam is the better fighter overall but doesn't love the price.

by decision
"I'll go far as I'm to win and win by decision."
BU
Bum MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Tom Nolan is a young, maturing fighter with good takedown defense and volume. He will outwork Farès Ziam over three rounds, pushing the pace and landing more strikes. Nolan is likely a slight underdog but has a bright future.

decision win; likely underdog
"Give me Tom Nolan by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Cody is confident in Ziam, citing his technical striking, improved wrestling, and Tom Nolan's poor durability. He notes Nolan has been hurt by lesser fighters and has weak takedown attempts. Ziam's growth and Nolan's chin issues make Ziam a strong pick.

"Zian's going to touch him at some point. He's going to hurt him at some point. He's going to knock him out at some point. I'm rolling with Fro Xian."
FI
Fight Night Picks Expert Confident picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Farès Ziam is picked to win inside the distance because he is the better MMA fighter with improved takedown defense and striking. Tom Nolan is hittable, has poor takedown accuracy (22%), and struggled against Charlie Campbell. Ziam's calculated striking and grappling upgrades make a finish likely, possibly by knockout or submission. The host agrees with the line.

Farès Ziam wins inside the distance (knockout or submission)
"I like FZM to win inside the distance and I actually agree uh with the line. So, give me FZM to finish this fight."
GR
Greedo Plays MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Ziam is on a six-fight win streak against better competition, including wins over Mike Davis and Nazim Sadykhov. Nolan has been fed weaker opponents and hasn't faced anyone of Ziam's caliber. Ziam should outpoint him on the feet and win a decision.

"I'm going to go Zam here. I think Zam wins. The question is, does he get the finish? I'm going to go no. I'm going go decision when for Zion."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Lucrative James picks Farès Ziam, citing his well-rounded skill set, improved fight IQ, and experience. He believes Ziam is one level above Tom Nolan in MMA and will win via decision, as Nolan is durable but likely outclassed over 15 minutes. He notes Nolan's X-factor finishing ability but thinks Ziam's technical striking and clinch game will be too much.

"I'm picking for SCM here. I'm picking him to win this fight via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Ziam has improved takedown defense and a sniper-like striking game. Nolan has poor striking defense and cardio issues. Ziam should pick Nolan apart and finish him in the third round as Nolan slows down. Ziam by third round TKO.

Ziam by TKO in round 3
"I think for the most part, we're going to see ZM pick Nolan apart. I think it'll stop most of the grappling exchanges of Nolan."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Paul picks Ziam by knockout, noting Ziam's well-rounded skills and Nolan's questionable durability. He likes Ziam's sneaky strikes and in-between fighting, and sees Nolan's chin as a major liability. He plans to bet Ziam by KO at +290.

Ziam by knockout at +290
"I like him to win by knockout by like it's like plus 290 out on the market. Um I'll be having a little bit of little bit of fun with that one."