Career Averages - Ricky Simón
Career Averages - Brian Kelleher
Ricky Simón
Brian Kelleher
Ricky Simón - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Simón | 0 | 44 of 139 | 31% | 52 of 149 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:06 |
| Adrian Yañez | 1 | 71 of 169 | 42% | 73 of 171 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ricky Simón | 0 | 12 of 55 | 21% | 12 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Adrian Yañez | 0 | 16 of 46 | 34% | 16 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ricky Simón | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 23 of 45 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:06 |
| Adrian Yañez | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 16 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ricky Simón | 0 | 17 of 49 | 34% | 17 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Adrian Yañez | 1 | 40 of 94 | 42% | 41 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Simón | 44 of 139 | 31% | 33 of 121 | 7 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 38 of 132 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 |
| Adrian Yañez | 71 of 169 | 42% | 63 of 159 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 67 of 156 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ricky Simón | 12 of 55 | 21% | 9 of 48 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Adrian Yañez | 16 of 46 | 34% | 15 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ricky Simón | 15 of 35 | 42% | 13 of 31 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 |
| Adrian Yañez | 15 of 29 | 51% | 13 of 26 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ricky Simón | 17 of 49 | 34% | 11 of 42 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Adrian Yañez | 40 of 94 | 42% | 35 of 88 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 36 of 81 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 13 |
Angelo picks Ricky Simon because he believes Simon's relentless pressure and wrestling will negate Yanez's technical striking. He notes that Simon's takedown defense was exposed against Honey Balcelos, but Balcelos is a high-level wrestler, while Yanez has no offensive takedowns. Angelo also mentions the hometown advantage and the possibility of a close decision, but expects Simon's wrestling to be effective enough to secure the win.
Big Brady picks Ricky Simón to win by decision, but he is hesitant. He notes that Simón has been on a three-fight losing streak and his cardio and wrestling have declined. However, he believes Simón's wrestling upside is key, as Adrian Yañez has not faced a wrestler in the UFC. Simón is the hometown fighter, and Brady thinks he can mix in takedowns, cage push, and win minutes in the clinch to secure a decision.
Cody picks Yanez, believing his striking and takedown defense will be enough to win rounds. He's concerned about Simon's hometown advantage but thinks Yanez lands the more significant shots.
Connor picks Yañez, thinking that Simón doesn't want to win just by holding someone down and will engage in the pocket, where Yañez can catch him. He notes that Simón is square and takes his eyes off the target, and Yañez has power.
Daniel believes Yanez's boxing and takedown defense will be too much for Simon, who he thinks is past his best. He cites sources saying Yanez is sharp again and likes the underdog value.
The host picks Simón despite his poor fight IQ and tendency to strike instead of wrestle. He argues that Simón's wrestling is his path to victory, and Yanez's takedown defense is inflated because he has only faced strikers. Footage from Yanez's fight against Daniel Marcos shows he can be taken down and held down easily. However, the host warns that Simón may not commit to grappling, making this a risky bet.
The host sees Yañez as the better striker with good takedown defense and getups, allowing him to keep the fight standing. He believes Yañez's striking edge and reach advantage will allow him to piece up Simón, and he even suggests Yañez might score a knockout. He notes Simón's reliance on power and wrestling, but thinks Yañez can avoid the big shots and find a finish.
Paul leans Simon, citing his wrestling and hometown crowd. He thinks Simon's control time could sway judges, especially with the Seattle crowd.
The MMA Guru picks Ricky Simón, noting his improved demeanor and grappling ability. He believes Simón is well-rounded enough to grapple his way to a decision victory. He criticizes Adrian Yañez's recent performances, pointing out losses to Rob Font and Daniel Marcos, and suggests Yañez struggles against capable opponents. He expects Simón to mix in grappling and land good shots on the feet.
Zane picks Simón for the wrestling, noting that Simón has shown more interest in keeping people down recently. He is hesitant because Yañez has good defensive wrestling and is a higher output fighter, but he thinks Simón's wrestling will be the difference in a close fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Simón | 0 | 67 of 181 | 37% | 77 of 191 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:25 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 82 of 187 | 43% | 86 of 194 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ricky Simón | 0 | 24 of 52 | 46% | 34 of 62 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:45 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 16 of 33 | 48% | 19 of 39 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Ricky Simón | 0 | 16 of 47 | 34% | 16 of 47 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 32 of 71 | 45% | 33 of 72 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ricky Simón | 0 | 27 of 82 | 32% | 27 of 82 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 34 of 83 | 40% | 34 of 83 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Simón | 67 of 181 | 37% | 57 of 165 | 9 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 58 of 170 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 7 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 82 of 187 | 43% | 53 of 150 | 19 of 24 | 10 of 13 | 80 of 184 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ricky Simón | 24 of 52 | 46% | 20 of 46 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 7 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 16 of 33 | 48% | 9 of 26 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ricky Simón | 16 of 47 | 34% | 13 of 44 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 32 of 71 | 45% | 21 of 57 | 8 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 32 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ricky Simón | 27 of 82 | 32% | 24 of 75 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 82 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 34 of 83 | 40% | 23 of 67 | 8 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 33 of 82 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Simon (-160); Barcelos (+130)
Round 1
Sticking to the bantamweight division but flipping over to men, a pair of relative elder statesmen in the promotion come to blows with hopes of pushing their unlikely win streaks one step forward. Some six and a half years after getting wasted by Urijah Faber and totally written off, Simon (22-6, 10-5 UFC) has gone on a pair of respectable runs since then. The same can be said for 38-year-old Barcelos (20-5, 9-4 UFC), who once had a rough patch where he dropped four of five. Someone’s fortuitous stretch is about to crash into the proverbial wall, and referee Keith Peterson will follow the athletes every step of the nonsense-free way. Fists are bumped before they are traded.
Simon sprints to the center of the cage and looses a head kick that goes wide. He pushes out a front kick, and Barcelos whizzes past him with a fireball of a right hand. Barcelos jabs the body and allows Simon to leap at him, staying out of range so there is no strike to come from it. Simon sticks the Brazilian and moves, and Barcelos strides forward and is belted with an uppercut. Barcelos takes it well, and the two consider grappling but bail on it to brawl it out. Both men are putting everything into their swings, and Barcelos clips Simon and then shoots in for a double. Simon scrambles wildly and flips Barcelos over, where he starts smacking Barcelos around with high-arcing hammerfists.
Simon lashes out with elbows while Barcelos keeps him contained with butterfly hooks, and both men trade while in a horizontal position until Barcelos kicks off to stand up. Simon reaches him at the end of a right hand, and Barcelos wings on the overhand right counter. Simon dings the Brazilian with a one-two, and his jab is money. Barcelos smashes Simon in the face with a ruthless right hand, and somehow Simon not only sticks with it but returns fire with an uppercut that nearly lifts his man off the ground. Both men are no worse for wear from the mighty exchange, and Simon tries to sneak in a head kick that is blocked in time. Barcelos opens up upstairs with a pair of punches, and Simon backs him off with jabs. Barcelos tries to take the fight down, and he abandons it to slash out with an elbow up top. A final Simon takedown is blocked to end what was a close, tense round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Simon
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Round 2
Barcelos starts off the round with a double jab and a right hand up top. Simon swings back with a huge overhand right, and Barcelos ducks it and plants a right on the jaw. Barcelos times a thumping calf kick and overswings on a right hand while chasing the man, and Simon knees him in the jaw. Barcelos digs a left to the body, and Simon’s quick kick and right hand greet him in rapid succession. Barcelos scrapes the side of his uppercut off the head, and he drops down for a low single and hurls Simon to a knee. Simon scrambles out of reach and gets back to his feet, only for Barcelos to ring his bell with a crisp uppercut and a power right hand. Barcelos crashes into his foe with a leaping uppercut, and Simon tries to time a double when he lands. Simon pushes Barcelos up against the wire, but the sprawl of Barcelos prevents the Washington native from going anywhere. Barcelos escapes with little more than a knee to the belly, and he allows Simon to circle all the way around him so he can find his angle in. Simon lands first with a right, but Barcelos connects last and the heavier of the two.
Barcelos goes to the body and then head, and he scoops Simon up and deposits him gingerly on the canvas. Simon jumps right back up, and Barcelos does not mind as he can trade hands with his foe. Simon scores an uppercut, and Barcelos reaches him with three punches over the guard. A naked leg kick from Simon is met with a two-punch salvo, and Barcelos rips a right to the body to punctuate the combo. Simon counters a low kick with a right hand, and Barcelos stands firm and jacks him in the jaw with a right hand and an uppercut. Simon dances and keeps Barcelos guessing with awkward movement, entries and exits that rely on speed and potshots with evasive movement. They both shoot at the same time and clash heads like bulls, and proceed to trade punches and kicks to end what is another tight round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Round 3
The final round opens with the Brazilian pushing the pace. He watches Simon attack and sways to dodge everything but an uppercut, and he storms back to nail Simon with a one-two that forces a takedown shot. Barcelos sits down on a right hand, Simon replies, and Barcelos comes over the top. Barcelos leaps in and lands a right after Simon’s strike connects on him, and Simon’s jab has bloodied the bridge of the Brazilian’s beak. Barcelos rubs his nose and busts Simon in the chops with a stiff right hand. Simon’s one-two also scores, but Barcelos still has the power edge and is putting more strikes together.
Both men go back and forth with their offensive offerings, with Simon just missing an uppercut when Barcelos ducked down. Barcelos jams a knee to the body, and he plants his shin on the side of Simon’s lead leg. Barcelos drops down for a snatch single, and he releases it and busts open Simon’s nose with power punches. Barcelos follows a punch with a high kick, and then goes back to a one-two. Simon’s stabbing jab is effective, as is his overhand right and uppercut to follow, but Barcelos stuns him when landing flush. Barcelos’ rights have Simon’s attention, and Simon tries to walk him down to attack the liver but finds himself in a slugfest. Barcelos goes after a double and bails on it to come back with an elbow, and knees fly from both men effectively after. Simon steps in with a sharp elbow, and both fighters unload their gas tanks and swing for the bleachers. Simon takes a kick in the face and screams for Barcelos to keep engaging, and they bang it out to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-27 Barcelos)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Barcelos)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-27 Barcelos)
The Official Result
Raoni Barcelos def. Ricky Simon via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Ricky Simon because of his non-stop wrestling pace and power in his hands. He believes even if Raoni Barcelos has early takedown defense, Simon's relentless pressure will eventually get takedowns. He notes that Barcelos is aging and that wrestlers are not spectacular off their backs.
Big Brady struggles with this pick, noting Simón has looked awful in recent fights and may be slowing down due to accumulated damage. He thinks Barcelos has better striking and both have questionable chins. He leans with the 38-year-old Barcelos to win by decision, but admits it's a sketchy pick.
Cody picks Barcelos, citing his takedown defense, BJJ black belt, and superior boxing volume. He thinks Simón's wrestling will be neutralized and Barcelos will outwork him over three rounds.
Lucrative James is confident in Ricky Simón, going against the market. He believes Simón's wrestling and cardio advantage will be key, as Barcelos ages and has shown a deteriorating chin and gas tank. He expects Simón to mix takedowns and land big overhands, possibly finishing Barcelos. He also notes Barcelos has been hurt in recent fights.
The host acknowledges Barcelos is the better striker on paper, but believes Simón's wrestling, athleticism, speed, and power will be decisive. He expects Simón to find a big shot and knock Barcelos out.
Paul sees it as a 50/50 fight but likes Barcelos at plus money. He thinks if Simón can't get takedowns, Barcelos's striking and experience will carry him.
The Guru picks Ricky Simón to win by first-round TKO. He believes Simón's well-rounded game and explosiveness will overwhelm the aging Barcelos, who relies on exploiting specific weaknesses. He notes Simón has no glaring holes in his grappling or pressure defense, unlike Barcelos's previous opponents.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Simón | 0 | 34 of 74 | 45% | 50 of 94 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 9:13 |
| Cameron Smotherman | 0 | 29 of 99 | 29% | 33 of 104 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ricky Simón | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 19 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:27 |
| Cameron Smotherman | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ricky Simón | 0 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 20 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:56 |
| Cameron Smotherman | 0 | 11 of 37 | 29% | 12 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ricky Simón | 0 | 11 of 30 | 36% | 11 of 30 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Cameron Smotherman | 0 | 17 of 56 | 30% | 18 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Simón | 34 of 74 | 45% | 22 of 62 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 8 | 28 of 62 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 6 |
| Cameron Smotherman | 29 of 99 | 29% | 23 of 89 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 25 of 94 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ricky Simón | 7 of 13 | 53% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 3 |
| Cameron Smotherman | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ricky Simón | 16 of 31 | 51% | 8 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 14 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Cameron Smotherman | 11 of 37 | 29% | 9 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ricky Simón | 11 of 30 | 36% | 9 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 27 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Cameron Smotherman | 17 of 56 | 30% | 14 of 49 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 52 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Simon (-440), Smotherman (+340)
Round 1
On short notice, Simon (21-6, 9-5 UFC) now stands across the cage from high-flying Fury FC product Smotherman (12-5, 1-1 UFC). Simon was initially expected to battle Charles Jourdain, but it is what it is now. The bantamweights will be joined in the cage by referee Blake Grice, who claps them in as they choose to tap their gloves together. Smotherman jabs and low kicks, and Simon does the same. Simon turns his hips into one thudding kick, and he suddenly goes high with a kick that Smotherman barely blocks in time. Both swipe at the other with hooks, and Simon drops levels, stutter-steps and shoots for a single-leg takedown. Simon lifts Smotherman all the way in the air and chucks him to the mat, where Smotherman is quick to sit up against the wire. Simon hooks one leg in and starts peppering Smotherman with free left hands, and Smotherman is stuck unable to get back up. When Smotherman attempts to stand, Simon wrenches him back down again. Simon isolates Smotherman’s left arm in pursuit of a kimura, and Smotherman gives up position to defend against it. Simon takes advantage of this to step into full mount, and he allows Smotherman to turn over so he can start fishing for a rear-naked choke. Simon cannot get his hooks in, so Smotherman is able to fight back to his feet with about 30 seconds left in the round. Simon leans on him against the wire, kneeing him in the side of the head while trying to drag Smotherman back down. Simon rides out the round squeezing.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Simon
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Simon
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Simon
Round 2
Smotherman takes the center of the cage and marches forward to start off the second round, looking for a hook that he cannot find yet. Simon loops a right hand around the guard and plunks the front leg with a kick, and he dodges the counter to weave a right hand up top. Simon kicks the front leg and keeps his guard up to block the right hand aimed down the pipe, and he walks into a pair of punches but does not budge. Instead, Simon leaps in the air with a knee, and he lands and grabs hold of a double. Simon tackles Smotherman to his back, placing himself in half guard while exerting heavy shoulder pressure. Simon flattens his man out when Smotherman tries to buck and twist to get out, and he slashes down with a pair of elbows. Simon leans back a slight amount to wrap his arm around Smotherman’s neck, either for a guillotine setup or to push Smotherman down. Simon spins around to grab his foe from behind, and Smotherman stands back up in the process. Simon leans on Smotherman from the back while jamming Smotherman against the wall, and Smotherman starts chattering towards the grapple-heavy adversary. Simon ignores it and continues to embrace the grind, transitioning a single to a double and back to a single. Smotherman looks for a standing ninja choke, but Simon wriggles his neck out without concern. “The Baby-Faced Killer” drives a knee down the middle, and when it succeeds, he goes for another. Simon shrugs them off and loops a right hand up top and a left to the liver. Simon narrowly avoids a looping right hand as he scores a low kick, and Smotherman’s final strike of the round is a front kick to the chest. Grice has to get between the two when the horn sounds, ushering them back to their corners. Smotherman does not appear to be a happy man right now.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Simon
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Simon
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Simon
Round 3
Smotherman is fired up between rounds, and he starts throwing hands and grins when Simon obliges him. Simon takes a jab on the forehead and showboats while dodging the two follow-ups, looking away from the swinging Texan. Simon clips Smotherman with a right hand on the temple, and he grabs hold of Smotherman in a body lock and throws him to his knees. Smotherman powers back up to his feet, but Simon is a dog with a bone as he tries to go from a double to a single to a body lock. Simon pursues a double again when the other efforts fail, and Smotherman’s defense holds up even as he is stuck against the wire. Smotherman pushes off a knee, forcing Simon to wing two punches and shoot in for a double that finally succeeds. Smotherman is placed on his seat, and Simon holds him down and keeps his arms wrapped around a single to keep him in place. Smotherman still gets back to his feet, and he shakes Simon up with an elbow. Smotherman walks him down, firing a left to the body and a right to the head. When Simon counters, Smotherman hits him with a step-in knee. Simon eats a left hook to fire one back, and his right hand gets Smotherman’s attention and tells him it will not be as easy as walking through him with heavy fists. Simon shoots hard for a single, and Smotherman responds with a ninja choke and backs himself to the fencing. Simon is completely unfazed by the submission attempt, not budging and instead pressing on Smotherman until Smotherman bails on it. Smotherman breaks out of the takedown attempt and clinch to drive a pair of lefts to the liver and temple. Simon jabs to beat him to the punch a few times, and Smotherman is winding up with everything he has with his right hand. Simon is able to intercept him when he launches those missiles, slipping the most dangerous of the punches and hitting Smotherman back. Smotherman jabs to the body with the ball of his foot, winging a left to the same spot and a right up top. Simon shrugs at him, but he got stung with the power strikes. Smotherman unloads with pure power, tagging Simon a few times and eating some responsive blows until time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Simon (30-27 Simon)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Smotherman (29-28 Simon)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Smotherman (29-28 Simon)
The Official Result
Ricky Simon def. Cameron Smotherman via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
The Guru picks Ricky Simón, noting he is 'barely a favorite' and sees value. He highlights Simón's momentum from a KO win over Javid Basharat and his power in the pocket. He criticizes Smotherman's quick turnaround after a loss where he took damage, and trusts Simón's fundamentals and grappling options.
Angelo picks Ricky Simón because of his relentless wrestling and cardio. He believes Charles does not have good enough takedown defense to stop multiple shots. He notes that Ricky's losses are to top competition and he is consistent.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Simón | 1 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 18 of 29 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
| Javid Basharat | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 21 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ricky Simón | 1 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 18 of 29 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
| Javid Basharat | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 21 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Simón | 11 of 21 | 52% | 9 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Javid Basharat | 20 of 36 | 55% | 12 of 27 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 20 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ricky Simón | 11 of 21 | 52% | 9 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Javid Basharat | 20 of 36 | 55% | 12 of 27 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 20 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Javid Basharat but is hesitant because of Javid's frustratingly passive performance in his last fight. He acknowledges Ricky Simón's relentless wrestling pressure and cardio could sway judges if Javid is too patient. He trusts Javid's takedown defense and superior striking, but admits it's hard to be confident given Javid's tendency to stare.
Big Brady picks Javid Basharat despite not loving the -300 price tag. He notes that Ricky Simón looks washed at only 32, with poor recent performances against Vinicius Oliveira, Mario Bautista, and Song Yadong. He believes Simón needs to wrestle for 15 minutes but doubts he can take down or hold down Basharat. He predicts Basharat wins by decision.
The host notes Simón is on a three-fight losing streak and faces a tough opponent in Basharat, who has stellar takedown defense and superior striking. He expects Basharat to pick Simón apart from distance and win on the scorecards.
The Guru feels Ricky Simón has lost his mojo, citing recent losses where he was walked down. He believes Basharat is at a level similar to Victor Henry and will outpoint Simón in a striking fight. He doesn't see Simón overpowering Basharat in grappling or striking, predicting a decision win for Basharat.
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Simon (-218), Oliveira (+180)
Round 1
At long last, UFC 303 is upon us, but not how many would have hoped. In the weeks prior to the event, the final three bouts on the lineup transformed dramatically. Before we get to those, there will be 10 other matchups pleasing fight fans throughout the billing, with some fascinating stylistic clashes and others that promise immediate violence. We start off in the bantamweight division, where perennial contender Simon (20-5, 8-4 UFC) looks to get back in the win column after a rare skid. He faces high-flying Brazilian Oliveira (20-3, 1-0 UFC), who has seen 19 of his 23 pro outings end by knockout, win or lose. Referee Mark Smith is on call for the first fight of the night, geared up for what could be something wild. There is no fist bump to get things going, perhaps in part to the fiery weigh-ins the night before. The two feint and fake at one another in the opening 20 seconds, and Oliveira lunges for a few strikes but misses the mark. Oliveira prods out a front kick to the midsection and skirts away, his hands low as he aims a low calf kick. Simon reaches him with two punches up top, and Oliveira slips away from the rest. The Brazilian misses the mark with a jumping front kick, but his leg kick that follows does connect. Simon rushes him to get off a few punches before evading the counter. Oliveira uses his front kick as a jab, and he follows one with a rifling one-two down the middle. Oliveira switches stances regularly, keeping Simon guessing and flicking out a sharp left and a heavy right. Simon keeps his guard up to defend the worst of the blows, and he slams a low kick on the rear shin before crashing the pocket to sling “Lok Dog” to the canvas. Oliveira jumps right back up and stabs out a right hand that gets Simon’s attention, and Simon tags him with a counter that makes Oliveira drop his hands and march forward like a Terminator. Oliveira lets Simon have it with a number of unanswered leg kicks, and he whiffs on a head kick. Simon gets off a right hand, and Oliveira jabs him back. Oliveira walks through jabs, taking one on the nose and shrugging his shoulders before loosing a head kick that pounds into the guard. Oliveira gets off another head kick that nails the guard, and Simon dips down and lands a body shot that skips off the cup. Oliveira signals to Smith that he is fine, and he gets back to a stalking mode where his hands are low and he is swinging hard. Simon rushes at him to tie him up, but Oliveira wants nothing to do with it. Simon times a right hand as Oliveira ducks, and Oliveira shakes it off and tosses out two kicks. Simon snaps the head back as a gob of saliva launches from the mouth of “Lok Dog,” and they trade hands until the horn sounds.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Round 2
Oliveira marches out of his corner, shouting something at Simon to get started. Oliveira’s hands low, he engages in a brief slugfest, and a left hand from Simon smashes into his ear and breaks open the cauliflower, resulting in a trickle of blood streaming down his neck. Oliveira laughs off anything Simon throws at him and lobs back hooks, and the two end up in the clinch until “Lok Dog” wants to push off and swing hands. Simon shoots through the hips with a solid double-leg takedown entry, and he lands on top comfortably. Oliveira keeps moving, and he scrambles back to his feet without issue. Simon ducks a punch and lifts Oliveira off the ground to slam him down to a knee, and when Oliveira tries to recover, Simon looks to take his back standing. Simon lets loose with a sharp elbow from a close proximity, and Oliveira pushes off and takes a deep breath. The punches from the Brazilian are labored less than two minutes into the second round, although his leg kicks do keep landing. Oliveira is frustrated about a warning to close his fingers, and he snaps out a jab that draws a frown from the Washington native. Simon looks for his own jab, all while trying to meander around the unorthodox looping punches from “Lok Dog.” Oliveira goes all power, and Simon blocks the strikes and drives him back with a few straight punches and a body shot. Simon attempts a takedown, and Oliveira stonewalls him and pursues a spinning wheel kick that Simon evades. Oliveira chains several strikes together including a few leg kicks, and he stumbles and returns to his feet to keep attacking. A few punches from Oliveira get through to shake up Simon, who escapes out the side and whips a head kick at the Brazilian’s melon. Oliveira takes it without issue and swings back with bad intentions, and he defends a takedown shot and uses rangy strikes to get to Simon. As Oliveira lazily tosses out calf kicks, Simon checks a few, and Oliveira staggers back, compromised from the defense. Simon rushes at him, letting his hands go. The two trade leather until the bell rings, and Simon barks at his opponent. Oliveira does not know what to do when hearing this, and he punches Simon in the face well after the round ended. Smith drags him to the corner while shouting at him, and cooler heads prevail to get to the third round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Round 3
Physicians come in to assess the damage of Oliveira’s leg, and he is cleared to continue. Oliveira rushes out of his corner once more, but this time, Simon meets him in the middle to trade with him. Simon ducks the punch and lets go with a kick, and he engages in a back-and-forth session of strikes with him coming out slightly better. Simon pushes Oliveira back, and he checks a kick as Oliveira shakes his head uncomfortably. Simon leads off with punches, and Oliveira pushes off and a finger jabs into Simon’s eye. Oliveira shakes his finger as if to say it was from a punch, and Smith does not call anything. Simon fails on one takedown attempt, and his second is much deeper but he is spun around on the fence. Oliveira breaks free and jabs out with a front kick, circling to the left and switching stances regularly. Oliveira sticks out several jabs in an effort to launch a big right hand to follow, and he jabs the body and starts showboating and raising his hands to signal for Simon to fight him. Oliveira blocks a head kick and gives him one back, and he motions to Simon that his was much more effective. Oliveira walks Simon down, backing off only to block the offense his way, and he loops a left hand over the top. When Oliveira lets go with two punches, Simon shoots in for a double, and “Lok Dog” shuts it down and strings a number of punches and a kick together. Simon cannot reach his man, and Oliveira tags him back and raises his arms in the air to celebrate. Oliveira lands a few shots and looks over to his corner in a Max Holloway-esque display, and he decides to change things up and take Simon down. Oliveira backs off to stand back up, and he uses several unusual strikes including a kick behind his other leg to mess with Simon. Oliveira lands a head kick right at the bell, and the two stop fighting and hug it out to squash any beef that may have developed between them.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (30-27 Oliveira)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (30-27 Oliveira)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (30-27 Oliveira)
The Official Result
Vinicius Oliveira def. Ricky Simon via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Simon (-115), Song (-105)
Round 1
This bantamweight clash was supposed to be a co-main event one week ago before UFC Fight Night 223 lost its originally scheduled headliner. Now Song and Simon get two extra rounds with which to work. Herb Dean gets the final officiating assignment of the night. Simon tests the waters with a high kick and front kick. Song defends without issue. Simon lands a leg kick as both fighters remain patient. Song sidesteps a takedown and lands a leg kick. Song steps in with a knee and misses a right hand. Song blocks a body kick and then lands a hard one of his own. Song catches a kick and Simon spins out of it. A 1-2 connects for Simon and Song responds with a leg kick. Simon doubles up on his jab and follows with a right. They clinch against the fence and battle for position before Simon shakes his foe off. Simon lands a clubbing right. A leg kick connects for Simon and Song smiles. A left lands for Song and then Simon can’t finish a takedown. Song avoids a level change and fires off punches as Simon moves out of danger. Another three-punch combo lands for Simon and Song answers with a leg kick. Simon sticks a jab before the end of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Simon
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Simon
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Simon
Round 2
Song opens with a front kick to the midsection. He follows up with a leg kick and Simon backs him up with a combination. Simon lands another jab. Another jab for Simon gets through. Song backs up Simon with a powerful combination and Simon briefly falls to the canvas after a clash of heads. He quickly transitions to a double leg takedown, giving him time to recover. Song is able to scramble up in a hurry. Simon sticks his jab and Song responds with a hard right to the body. Song with a push kick down the middle and Simon circles away. A clean left hook catches Simon. Another hard left lands for Song, who seems to have found his timing. Simon backs up his foe with multiple jabs. Song pressures and swings heavy leather. Simon continues to work his jab, but Song is undeterred. Song lands a leg kick. Simon evades some jabs but Song lands a left to the liver. Simon eats a right but gets a takedown in the waning moments of the round. He unloads with a flurry of hammerfists from above while Song attacks from his back in a frantic final exchange.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Song
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Song
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Song
Round 3
Song kicks the lead leg and avoids a hook. Simon shoots for a takedown but Song stuffs it and they’re back at distance. Song tries to land another body shot during an exchange but it lands below the belt, and time is called. Simon needs less than a minute to recover and the fight resumes. Simon just dodges a head kick but Song does connect with a leg kick. Song with two more leg kicks. Simon jabs and follows with a takedown but Song easily evades it. Song misses a pair of high kicks but he digs a left hook to the body moments later. A right lands clean for Song. A left from Song puts Simon on wobbly legs, and he circles away. A right to the body finds a home for Simon. Song pressures with punches and Simon circles away. A right uppercut lands to the body for Song. Song misses a high kick followed by a spinning back fist. The round concludes with Song being warned by Dean for leading with his head.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Song
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Song
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Song
Round 4
Simon fires off a combination but Song dodges it. Song lands a leg kick. Simon hits a low kick of his own. Simon attempts a flying knee but Song shoves him back. Song then puts together a nice combination, landing to the body and head. Song sticks a jab then sprawls on a takedown. Simon resets and tries again, but yet again Song denies it. Song moves in with a left hook to the head, and Simon circles away. Song backs up Simon with a combination and then digs a hook to the body. Simon fires off a right hand and then a pair of leg kicks. Another right for Song. Song again lands a combination, but Simon answers with a jab. Song has a low kick checked. Simon moves forward behind his jab and Song answers with a body kick. Simon thinks about a takedown but Song is wise to it. Song with a right hook. Simon moves in with a straight left. Another jab lands for Simon. Song doubles up on his jab and follows with a right hand. Son lands a leg kick and sits Simon down with a left hand right at the horn. Song dives into top position as the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Song
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Song
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Song
Round 5
Simon will likely need something big to get the win. Simon jabs forward. Song lands a left hook to the body. A nicely timed overhand right stops Simon in his tracks. Shortly thereafter,
Song drops Simon with a left hook during an exchange. Song pounces on his reeling foe, unloading with heavy punches. Simon tries to scramble out of danger, but the barrage continues and he falls back to the canvas, still absorbing damage.
Finally, Dean has seen enough and steps in to wave off the bout.
The Official Result
Yadong Song def. Ricky Simon via TKO (Punches) R5 1:10
Connor is impressed with Simón's rapid improvement, especially his boxing and wrestling integration since the Rob Font loss. He notes Simón's flexibility, ability to counter off the back foot, and scrambling prowess. However, he acknowledges Song's power and chin, and the risk of a knockout. He ultimately favors Simón due to Song's stagnation and Simón's adaptability.
Zane agrees with Connor, citing Simón's improvement and Song's plateau. He highlights Simón's wrestling threat and pace, and Song's tendency to throw everything hard and get tracked down. He notes Song's potential to knock Simón out but leans on Simón's recent performances and adaptability.
Brian Kelleher - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Gibson | 0 | 2 of 12 | 16% | 2 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Brian Kelleher | 0 | 13 of 24 | 54% | 18 of 30 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 2:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Gibson | 0 | 2 of 12 | 16% | 2 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Brian Kelleher | 0 | 13 of 24 | 54% | 18 of 30 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 2:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Gibson | 2 of 12 | 16% | 0 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Kelleher | 13 of 24 | 54% | 9 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 18 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Gibson | 2 of 12 | 16% | 0 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Kelleher | 13 of 24 | 54% | 9 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 18 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gibson (-205), Kelleher (+170)
Round 1
Rounding out the rocky prelims is an aging 135er with a .500 record in the promotion against a fellow fighter over the age of 35 a loss away from reaching the dreaded “Sinosic Line.” Gibson (19-10, 1-5 UFC) is not the only fighter to sport this record of 1-5 with the potential to go 1-6 tonight, but more on that later. He battles the hyper-aggressive Kelleher (24-15, 8-8 UFC), and this one has the potential of ending in the blink of an eye. Referee Kerry Hatley is ready for whatever happens next, and that is a touch of gloves. Kelleher immediately goes on the offensive with a leg kick and a front kick. Gibson gives him back an overhand right to make Kelleher take a funny step back, and he connects with two more punches that make Kelleher turn away and have to recover. Kelleher gets back to the middle of the cage and kicks a few more times, and he is reached with a front kick by “The Renegade.” Gibson connects with a calf kick, and he misses with a one-two. Kelleher races forward swinging fists, and Gibson grabs hold of him and manages to take his back standing to wrench him down to a knee. Kelleher pops back up, but the second effort for Gibson succeeds. Kelleher tries to set up a guillotine choke, and Gibson frees himself and assumes top position. Kelleher fights his way back to his feet in a hurry, and Gibson grinds on him as he looks for a mat return. Gibson succeeds in putting Kelleher down for a second, only for “Boom” to explode to his feet again. Kelleher hand-fights to spin out but eats a knee on the break. Gibson races after him with an uppercut and a slashing elbow, and he pushes Kelleher to the fence. Kelleher welcomes him with a knee, and Gibson gives him a few back. Kelleher turns eats an elbow that drops him to a knee, but Kelleher recovers and pursues a takedown. Gibson turns him away and attacks for his own takedown, leading to Kelleher jumping guard for a guillotine choke.
“The Renegade” breaks out of the choke and moves into half guard, where he almost instantly locks down an arm-triangle choke. Kelleher is stuck in a precarious position, and when he tries to fight out of it, he finds that Gibson is an immovable stone on his body. Kelleher surrenders before going out,
and tonight has its first finish. Gibson earns his first victory since his first stint in the promotion in 2014, and he is elated to get his hand raised in the Octagon for the second time.
The Official Result
Cody Gibson def. Brian Kelleher R1 3:58 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Angelo picks Cody Gibson because he is the more focused fighter with length and cardio, while Brian Kelleher is past his prime and on a three-fight skid. However, he is not confident at the favorite price and notes that Kelleher's losses have been to top competition. He considers an inside the distance/decision no action bet on Gibson.
Cody picks Gibson, citing his size advantage (5'10" reach vs 5'6"), durability, and volume. He notes Kelleher's age (38), neck injury, and recent inactivity. He thinks Gibson can outwork Kelleher and that Kelleher's path to victory via guillotine is unlikely. He calls both fighters 'expired milk' but leans Gibson.
Daniel Vreeland reluctantly picks Brian Kelleher, despite initially favoring Cody Gibson. He notes Gibson's tendency to fade in fights, citing the Ray Borg and Brad Katona fights where Gibson was winning early but fell apart. Vreeland believes Kelleher can survive early and take over late, possibly by submission or TKO.
Gibson is a favorite at -185. He has a 4-inch height and 7-inch reach advantage, which he can use to keep Kelleher at bay with his boxing and kicks. Kelleher is on a three-fight losing streak and approaching 38, showing signs of decline. Gibson needs to be wary of Kelleher's guillotine, but he should be able to dictate the pace and win a decision.
Paul also picks Gibson, agreeing that wrestling will be negated and that Gibson's volume will be key. He notes Gibson's close fight with Brad Katona where he landed 164 significant strikes. He thinks Kelleher's guillotine is a threat but not enough to overcome Gibson's output.
The MMA Guru picks Cody Gibson despite previously saying he'd never pick him again. He notes Gibson might be able to hurt Kelleher, who is 37 and has been inactive with multiple neck surgeries. He points to Kelleher's recent first-round losses to Umar Nurmagomedov, Cody Garbrandt, and Mario Bautista, and questions his dedication. Gibson's close fight with Miles Johns is seen as a positive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Garbrandt | 1 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Brian Kelleher | 0 | 17 of 25 | 68% | 21 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Garbrandt | 1 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Brian Kelleher | 0 | 17 of 25 | 68% | 21 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Garbrandt | 20 of 41 | 48% | 16 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 35 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Kelleher | 17 of 25 | 68% | 9 of 13 | 1 of 3 | 7 of 9 | 17 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Garbrandt | 20 of 41 | 48% | 16 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 35 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Kelleher | 17 of 25 | 68% | 9 of 13 | 1 of 3 | 7 of 9 | 17 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Cody Garbrandt, stating he should dominate everywhere, but worries about his chin and tendency to brawl. He notes that if Cody shows patience, he is a confident pick. He is unsure about betting due to chin concerns.
Big Brady picks Brian Kelleher to win by knockout, despite acknowledging Garbrandt is more skilled. He notes Garbrandt's chin issues (4 KO losses) and washed performances, while Kelleher has power and a guillotine threat. Brady believes Kelleher will force exchanges and land a big shot, putting Garbrandt out. He also notes Garbrandt has zero submissions, so a sub win is unlikely.
Cody picks Garbrandt, arguing that he is better in every aspect of martial arts except durability. He notes that Kelleher's only path is a knockout, but Kelleher has only two KO wins in six years. Cody believes Garbrandt will fight smart behind his jab and potentially win by decision or finish. He acknowledges the chin concern but thinks Kelleher is not the guy to exploit it.
Lucrative James picks Brian Kelleher as the underdog. After rewatching Cody Garbrandt's last fight against Trevin Jones, he saw Cody was hesitant, got wobbled, and taken down multiple times. He believes Cody's chin issues could resurface if Kelleher catches him. He acknowledges Kelleher's age (37) and two-fight losing streak but thinks Cody is not a minus 250 fighter.
The host is high on Kelleher as a plus 185 underdog, questioning how Garbrandt can be such a heavy favorite given his recent tentative style and chin issues. He believes Kelleher's aggression, durability, and grappling edge will be key. He expects Kelleher to crash the pocket, land big shots, and possibly finish Garbrandt. The only concern is Kelleher returning from neck surgery, but he thinks even 70% of Kelleher is enough to pull the upset.
Paul picks Garbrandt, stating that skill for skill, this fight is not competitive. He notes that Garbrandt is much faster on the feet and that Kelleher is not a murderous power puncher. Paul points to Garbrandt's last fight against Trevin Jones where he fought smart and stayed out of trouble. He believes Garbrandt will box Kelleher up and potentially win by decision or TKO.
The Guru picks Cody Garbrandt over Brian Kelleher, noting Kelleher's recent losses and decline. He believes the matchup is designed for Garbrandt to get a KO win on a big card. He predicts Garbrandt will win by TKO in the second round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brian Kelleher | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 6 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brian Kelleher | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 6 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:28 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Kelleher | 6 of 17 | 35% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Kelleher | 6 of 17 | 35% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Brian Kelleher in a tough, close fight. He notes both fighters are similar busy strikers who can grapple, but gives the edge to Kelleher's experience and physicality at 135 pounds. His main worry is Kelleher's negative striking differential, but he believes if Kelleher brings the same grappling he showed against Kevin Crume or Domingo Pilarte, he gets the win. He expects a razor-thin decision.
Big Brady picks Mario Bautista to win by decision. He highlights Bautista's significant size and reach advantages (3-inch height, 5-inch reach), superior striking, and underrated grappling. He notes that Kelleher has been submitted seven times and Bautista has submission skills, but expects the fight to stay standing where Bautista's youth and size will be decisive. He mentions Kelleher's durability (only one KO in 37 fights) but sees Bautista winning a decision.
Cody thinks Bautista is dynamic with good striking and wrestling. He notes Kelleher relies on takedowns and if he can't take Bautista down, he'll be out struck. He expects Bautista to win a decision.
Paul agrees with Cody, adding nothing to dispute.
The host picks Mario Bautista, noting Brian Kelleher looks old and slow at 35. He believes Bautista has good grappling and won't be exposed there, and that Kelleher struggles against step-up competition. He predicts a third-round TKO for Bautista, citing Bautista's training with Sean O'Malley and other top bantamweights.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 1 of 19 | 5% | 1 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Brian Kelleher | 0 | 18 of 26 | 69% | 21 of 29 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 | 0 | 1:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 1 of 19 | 5% | 1 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Brian Kelleher | 0 | 18 of 26 | 69% | 21 of 29 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 | 0 | 1:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 1 of 19 | 5% | 0 of 13 | 0 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Kelleher | 18 of 26 | 69% | 9 of 15 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 21 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 1 of 19 | 5% | 0 of 13 | 0 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Kelleher | 18 of 26 | 69% | 9 of 15 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 21 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Umar confidently, calling him a clear pick and a parlay piece. He highlights Umar's fantastic chain wrestling and constant pressure. He notes Kelleher doesn't have one-punch KO power, so even if Umar is hittable, it won't matter. He mentions the betting line movement favoring Umar.
Big Brady picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win by submission in the second round. He is very high on Umar's skills, noting his fast striking, good wrestling, and scrambling ability. Brady points out that Kelleher has been submitted six times and has poor takedown defense (60%). He believes Umar will be able to take Kelleher down and submit him, especially given Kelleher's tendency to give up takedowns and go for guillotines. Brady also notes Umar's youth and potential for improvement.
Cody is extremely high on Umar, calling him a future champion. He praises Umar's striking, takedown entries, and pace. He bet the under 2.5 rounds at +130, expecting an early finish. Cody notes Kelleher's only path is a guillotine, but Umar is too well-rounded and will dominate everywhere.
Daniel Levi picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win by decision. He praises Umar's kicking game and grappling, and believes Kelleher will be outmatched. He notes that Kelleher is a tough veteran but Umar is too much. He predicts Umar will win a decision, possibly a dominant one.
Nurmagomedov is a well-rounded fighter with excellent striking and grappling. Kelleher's only path is a knockout, but Nurmagomedov will use his kicks to maintain distance and then take the fight to the ground where he is dominant. Kelleher is durable and has good submission defense, but Nurmagomedov should control the fight and win a decision. The minus 675 is too steep for parlays, but Nurmagomedov via decision is a solid prop.
Paul echoes Cody's sentiment, calling Umar the complete package with elite wrestling and striking. He notes Umar's performance against Sergey Morozov was dominant and his pace is relentless. Paul believes Kelleher's only chance is to catch Umar in a guillotine, but Umar is too skilled. He plans to include Umar in a parlay with Colby.
The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov over Brian Kelleher, calling it a no-brainer. He highlights Nurmagomedov's dominant win over Sergey Morozov and sees him as a rising threat in the bantamweight division. He criticizes Kelleher's recent performance against Kevin Croom, noting he looked slow and old. He predicts Nurmagomedov will out-strike Kelleher early, take his back, and secure a rear-naked choke in the second round, similar to his debut finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Kelleher | 1 | 38 of 77 | 49% | 67 of 123 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 6:26 |
| Kevin Croom | 0 | 60 of 174 | 34% | 83 of 206 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Kelleher | 1 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 15 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Kevin Croom | 0 | 33 of 88 | 37% | 43 of 104 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 2 | Brian Kelleher | 0 | 14 of 25 | 56% | 22 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Kevin Croom | 0 | 22 of 72 | 30% | 34 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 3 | Brian Kelleher | 0 | 13 of 23 | 56% | 30 of 54 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 4:26 |
| Kevin Croom | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Kelleher | 38 of 77 | 49% | 25 of 58 | 12 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 25 of 58 | 3 of 5 | 10 of 14 |
| Kevin Croom | 60 of 174 | 34% | 36 of 141 | 11 of 16 | 13 of 17 | 58 of 168 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Kelleher | 11 of 29 | 37% | 7 of 24 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 26 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Croom | 33 of 88 | 37% | 17 of 68 | 6 of 8 | 10 of 12 | 32 of 84 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brian Kelleher | 14 of 25 | 56% | 8 of 15 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Kevin Croom | 22 of 72 | 30% | 14 of 61 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 22 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Brian Kelleher | 13 of 23 | 56% | 10 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 12 |
| Kevin Croom | 5 of 14 | 35% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady notes the significant age and reach advantage for Croom, who is 26 and has a 5-inch reach edge. He praises Croom's wrestling and grappling, and expects him to exploit Kelleher's 59% takedown defense. He predicts Croom will win a decision, though he acknowledges Kelleher is dangerous with submissions off his back.
Cody picks Kakhramonov, highlighting his wrestling, size, and cardio. He notes Kelleher's wrestling won't be effective and Kakhramonov's striking is solid. He expects Kakhramonov to win by decision or TKO. He mentions Kakhramonov's bright future.
Daniel Levi picks Brian Kelleher, noting that Croom took the fight on two weeks' notice and tends to fade as fights progress. He acknowledges Croom's dangerous guillotine early, but believes Kelleher's durability and cardio will allow him to take over in later rounds. Levi also mentions Kelleher's improved grappling, as seen in his last fight against Domingo Pilarte where he used takedowns to control the fight.
The host picks Brian Kelleher, citing his veteran experience and takedown defense against the grappler Kakaromanov. He expects Kelleher to stuff takedowns and land big shots on the feet, eventually knocking out Kakaromanov. The host notes Kakaromanov's striking is still developing and that Kelleher's power and pressure will be too much. He also mentions the under 2.5 rounds as a good bet.
Paul picks Kakhramonov, citing his impressive debut, wrestling base, and size advantage. He notes Kelleher's path is a guillotine, but Kakhramonov's wrestling should nullify that. He expects Kakhramonov to win via decision or late TKO. He calls -155 a fair price.
The MMA Guru picks Kevin Croom (Saidyokub Kakhramonov) to win by third-round submission. He trusts Croom's stand-up and grappling awareness, noting that he handled Trevin Jones well and has good takedown defense. He believes Kelleher will struggle to get takedowns and will slow down as the fight goes on, leading to a desperate shot that Croom will capitalize on with a guillotine or D'Arce choke. He predicts Croom will defend takedowns early, then submit Kelleher in the third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Kelleher | 0 | 28 of 40 | 70% | 236 of 279 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 12:49 |
| Domingo Pilarte | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 117 of 159 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Kelleher | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 68 of 89 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:50 |
| Domingo Pilarte | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 35 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Brian Kelleher | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 53 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 3:08 |
| Domingo Pilarte | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 27 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:29 | |
| 3 | Brian Kelleher | 0 | 11 of 13 | 84% | 115 of 126 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:51 |
| Domingo Pilarte | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 55 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Kelleher | 28 of 40 | 70% | 24 of 35 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 37 |
| Domingo Pilarte | 3 of 11 | 27% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Kelleher | 13 of 19 | 68% | 11 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 18 |
| Domingo Pilarte | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brian Kelleher | 4 of 8 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
| Domingo Pilarte | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Brian Kelleher | 11 of 13 | 84% | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 12 |
| Domingo Pilarte | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Brian Kelleher, citing a massive gap in level of competition. He notes Kelleher has fought and lost to top bantamweights, while Pilarte has been dominated by lower-level fighters. He believes Kelleher is the better striker and grappler, despite Pilarte's reach advantage. He predicts a third-round knockout.
Cody picks Kelleher, expecting him to win inside the distance. He notes Kelleher's guillotine threat but worries about the reach disadvantage and weight cut. He believes Kelleher's superior striking and wrestling will be enough.
Kelleher is the much better striker with good volume and leg kicks. Pilarte has rudimentary striking, poor cardio, and has been close to being finished in recent fights. Kelleher's guillotine threat will deter takedowns. I'm picking Kelleher inside the distance, likely by knockout in the second round.
Paul picks Kelleher, citing his durability and better striking and wrestling. He notes Pilarte's weight cut issues and long layoff, and believes Kelleher can avoid Pilarte's submissions. However, he is not fully confident due to Kelleher's weight cut complaints.
The MMA Guru picks Brian Kelleher to win by guillotine choke in the first round. He criticizes Pilarte as a weight bully with a weak chin and poor cardio. He expects Kelleher to rock Pilarte with hooks, then catch him in a guillotine when Pilarte shoots for a single leg. He emphasizes Kelleher's toughness and finishing ability.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Kelleher | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ray Rodriguez | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Kelleher | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ray Rodriguez | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Kelleher | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ray Rodriguez | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Kelleher | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ray Rodriguez | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Kelleher, citing his durability (only one KO loss in 32 fights) and experience. He thinks Kelleher can take a takedown and submit Natividad. He notes Natividad is a brawler who gets hit a lot and has been KO'd in 9 seconds before. He predicts a second-round submission.
Daniel Levi picks Brian Kelleher by guillotine finish. He notes that Kelleher is experienced and tends to beat lower-level opponents, but warns that Kelleher is unreliable as a big favorite. He acknowledges that newcomer Kevin Natividad has power and could upset if Kelleher underestimates him, but ultimately sides with Kelleher's experience.
The host picks Kelleher to win by first-round KO. He cites Kelleher's veteran experience, solid chin, and takedown defense. He notes Natividad's only loss was a 9-second KO and expects Kelleher to land a knockout punch early.
The MMA Guru picks Brian Kelleher, noting that his opponent Kevin Natividad (originally Ray Rodriguez was scheduled but changed) has a padded record with weak competition. He believes Kelleher's experience against top fighters will prevail, and expects a second-round submission. He mentions Kelleher's losses to high-level opponents and his ability to survive early pressure.
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