UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns · Feb 13, 2021 · Middleweight · Completed
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Age 32
Height 6' 0"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 36
Height 6' 0"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Anthony Hernandez
4.57 SLpM
60.0% Str. Acc.
3.1 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
5.88 TD Avg
48.0% TD Acc.
68.0% TD Def.
1.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Rodolfo Vieira
3.55 SLpM
53.0% Str. Acc.
4.38 SApM
49.0% Str. Def.
2.7 TD Avg
21.0% TD Acc.
75.0% TD Def.
0.9 Sub. Avg
Anthony Hernandez
Moneyline
BetWay +375
KO/TKO
BetWay +550
Submission
BetWay +2000
Decision
BetWay +1000
Rodolfo Vieira
Moneyline
BetWay -549
KO/TKO
BetWay +900
Submission
BetWay -200
Decision
BetWay +500
Anthony Hernandez - Fight History
LOSS vs Sean Strickland
KO R3 2:23 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Feb 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean Strickland 1 110 of 241 45% 111 of 242 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Anthony Hernandez 0 55 of 122 45% 57 of 124 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean Strickland 0 32 of 90 35% 33 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Hernandez 0 23 of 48 47% 23 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
2 Sean Strickland 0 37 of 79 46% 37 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Anthony Hernandez 0 23 of 47 48% 23 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Sean Strickland 1 41 of 72 56% 41 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Anthony Hernandez 0 9 of 27 33% 11 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean Strickland 110 of 241 45% 93 of 219 9 of 14 8 of 8 101 of 230 2 of 3 7 of 8
Anthony Hernandez 55 of 122 45% 29 of 93 13 of 16 13 of 13 55 of 120 0 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean Strickland 32 of 90 35% 24 of 80 3 of 5 5 of 5 32 of 90 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 23 of 48 47% 12 of 37 5 of 5 6 of 6 23 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Sean Strickland 37 of 79 46% 30 of 69 4 of 7 3 of 3 37 of 79 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 23 of 47 48% 12 of 36 6 of 6 5 of 5 23 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sean Strickland 41 of 72 56% 39 of 70 2 of 2 0 of 0 32 of 61 2 of 3 7 of 8
Anthony Hernandez 9 of 27 33% 5 of 20 2 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 25 0 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez

Round 1
Herb Dean is the referee. Strickland lands an inside leg kick followed by a jab. A 1-2 from Strickland keeps Hernandez at bay. Hernandez lands a hard calf kick. Strickland, as expected, is using his jab liberally. Hernandez jabs the body. Inside leg kick lands for Hernandez and he jabs the body Strickland continues to pump his jab in Hernandez’s mug. Hernandez just misses a right hand. Hernandez looks to get inside and Strickland lands a short uppercut. Strickland follows a front kick with a jab. Strickland tags Hernadnez with a combination and “Fluffy” grins at him. Hernandez follows a combination by clinching with Strickland, but the former champ is able to circle out and extract himself. Multiple jabs land for Strickland. Hernandez fires back and Strickland appears to slip as he circles away. A solid right lands for Hernandez and Stirckland angels out. Strickland keeps firing his lead hand to keep Hernandez at a safe distance, but “Fluffy” is having his moments to land, as well. Hernandez follows an inside leg kick with a late flurry before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 2
Strickland with an inside low kick. They both trade low kicks. Hernandez fakes a takedown and then follows with an overhand right. Strickland lands a straight right. Hernandez pressures but Strickland is able to angle out of dnager. Hernandez counters a front kick with a right. More jabs and then a rigth hand connect for Strickland. A solid leg kick connects for “Fluffy.” Strickland’s patented jab and front kick both find the range. They briefly trade in close quarters, with Hernandez finding the rage on an uppercut. Hernandez pressures and Strickland pumps out his jab. Hernandez lands a jab of his own, but he’s still struggling to get into takedown range. Hernandez jabs the body. Strickland lands a 1-2. Hernandez answers with a couple shots to the body. They clinch and Strickland pushes Hernandez into the fence. They separate in short order with 40 seconds to go. Hernandez gets inside and forces the clinch, but Strickland lands an elbow as they separate. Strickland lands a nice combination late in the round.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 3
Hernandez follows a combination with a head kick early to provide a different look. Strickland doubles up on his jab. Hernandez is trying to put pressure on his opponent, but Strickland always seems to have an anwer with volume and intelligent movement. Hernandez forces the clinch, but Strickland lands an elbow on the break. Moments later, Strickland seems to have hurt Hernandez with a knee to the body. Hernandez is on the retreat as he tries to recover.
Strickland goes in for the kill and it’s just a barrage of punches as Hernandez covers up against the fence. A series of uppercuts does the trick, and finally “Fluffy” goes down. Strickland polishes off the victory with about eight unanswered standing-to-ground punches.
That’s the end of Hernandez’s eight-fight UFC winning streak, and don’t look now, but Strickland is right back in the thick of the middleweight title picture.

The Official Result
Sean Strickland def. Anthony Hernandez via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) R3 2:33
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Angelo picks Anthony Hernandez, drawing parallels to DDP's wins over Strickland via relentless forward pressure. He believes Hernandez's cardio and takedown volume will prevent Strickland from settling into his jab-heavy style. He respects Strickland's resume but thinks the matchup favors Hernandez.

"Anthony Hernandez has to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2026 (13 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Big Brady picks Anthony 'Fluffy' Hernandez to defeat Sean Strickland. He notes that Strickland has not wrestled in years, landing only two takedowns in his last several five-round fights, and that Fluffy's relentless takedown pressure will exhaust Strickland for the first time. He predicts Fluffy will land 10-15 takedowns over 25 minutes and win a decision, though a late finish wouldn't surprise him. He emphasizes Fluffy's cardio and ability to repeatedly take down opponents.

Fluffy by decision; over 10.5 takedowns implied
"I think Fluffy can go out there against Strickland here and I think he can put up 15 plus takedowns... I like Fluffy here to win this fight. I'll say it's by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Cody believes Strickland hasn't shown knockout power and that Hernandez's cardio and grappling will be too much. He notes Strickland's tendency to abandon game plans and thinks Hernandez wins by decision or late finish. He also mentions that Strickland's split decision history makes him unreliable as a favorite.

"I think Fluffy wins. I think Fluffy probably by decision, maybe a late finish."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Connor picks Strickland because he believes Hernandez's pressure will be too slow to overcome Strickland's defensive jab and front kicks. He notes that Hernandez has never faced a sprawl-and-brawl type like Strickland, and that Strickland's takedown defense, while questionable, should hold up enough to win early rounds. He also points out that Strickland has only been finished twice by huge shots, which Hernandez is unlikely to land.

Strickland by decision; odds: Strickland +230, Hernandez -270; Connor thinks the line should be closer to even
"I'm picking Sean Strickland though by decision. Hope I'm wrong."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)

The host is torn on this fight. He acknowledges that all the value lies with Strickland as a +225 underdog, citing Hernandez's injury concerns and Strickland's elite cardio and takedown defense. However, he also notes that Strickland lacks finishing power and is passive at times, making a decision win difficult. He ultimately cannot decide whether to bet Strickland and passes on betting Hernandez due to the steep -290 price.

Hernandez injury concern; Strickland lacks finishing power; fight likely goes to decision
"I haven't made my mind up on this one yet. I really haven't."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Lucrative James picks Fluffy Hernandez to win by decision, citing his relentless pace, pressure, and cardio. He notes that Strickland has all the tools to win but often makes poor decisions in the cage, as seen in his last fight against Du Plessis. James believes Hernandez's volume and grappling will overwhelm Strickland over five rounds, though he admits the betting value is on Strickland at plus money.

"I am going to end up saying that I believe Fluffy Hernandez wins a decision here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Hernandez is on an eight-fight winning streak with relentless wrestling and improved durability. Strickland's takedown defense is good, but Hernandez's pace and ability to chain wrestle should wear him down. Strickland will have success on the feet, but Hernandez's grappling control and submission threats should win rounds. The over 4.5 rounds is also a strong play as both have great cardio.

over 4.5 rounds at -120
"I'm going Anthony Fluffy Hernandez by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Paul acknowledges Strickland's takedown defense and cardio but questions his motivation and age (turning 35). He thinks Hernandez's constant pressure and grappling will edge him on scorecards, and notes that Strickland's style leaves him at mercy of judges. He prefers to live bet Hernandez after the first round.

"Hernandez winning in a main event against a former champion in Sean Strickland in Texas and his last name is Hernandez. This is what his career needs."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

The MMA Guru picks Sean Strickland, believing his teep to the body and high output will be key. He notes Hernandez is often hurt to the body and that Strickland is difficult to hold down. He thinks Strickland's wrestling instincts and training with Chimaev and Ankalaev will help him stuff takedowns. He predicts a fourth or fifth round TKO.

fourth or fifth round TKO, teep to the body, underdog
"I think Strickland's going to win this one by fourth or fifth round TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Zane picks Hernandez despite sharing Connor's caution. He argues that Hernandez's pressure is methodical and builds over time, and that Strickland's footwork falls apart under pressure. He notes that Hernandez has improved his striking significantly, using feints and leg kicks to cut off the cage, and that Strickland has never faced a pressure grappler like Hernandez. He also points out that Strickland's win condition relies on frustrating opponents, but Hernandez has a different mindset and will keep coming.

Zane thinks the line should be closer to even; notes Strickland opened +110 and is now +230, Hernandez opened -250 and is now -270
"I am picking Anthony Hernandez. Again, I see what you're saying. You know, I share the caution, but I just think Hernandez is as much as Sean Strickland is a kind of opponent that Hernandez has never fought, I don't …"
WIN vs Roman Dolidze
Submission R4 2:45 · UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Dolidze 0 36 of 107 33% 39 of 110 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:45
Anthony Hernandez 0 91 of 152 59% 120 of 187 9 of 11 81% 1 0 7:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Dolidze 0 10 of 31 32% 13 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
Anthony Hernandez 0 19 of 37 51% 21 of 39 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:50
2 Roman Dolidze 0 20 of 52 38% 20 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Hernandez 0 44 of 73 60% 52 of 83 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:47
3 Roman Dolidze 0 4 of 16 25% 4 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Anthony Hernandez 0 18 of 27 66% 28 of 38 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:28
4 Roman Dolidze 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Hernandez 0 10 of 15 66% 19 of 27 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Dolidze 36 of 107 33% 25 of 88 4 of 11 7 of 8 34 of 101 2 of 6 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 91 of 152 59% 67 of 128 6 of 6 18 of 18 48 of 102 13 of 18 30 of 32
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Dolidze 10 of 31 32% 5 of 25 0 of 1 5 of 5 9 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 19 of 37 51% 11 of 29 1 of 1 7 of 7 16 of 34 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Roman Dolidze 20 of 52 38% 15 of 42 3 of 7 2 of 3 19 of 49 1 of 3 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 44 of 73 60% 38 of 67 2 of 2 4 of 4 22 of 47 7 of 11 15 of 15
3 Roman Dolidze 4 of 16 25% 3 of 13 1 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 18 of 27 66% 11 of 20 2 of 2 5 of 5 5 of 13 0 of 0 13 of 14
4 Roman Dolidze 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 1 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 10 of 15 66% 7 of 12 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 8 3 of 4 2 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Angelo leans Anthony Hernandez, citing his incredible cardio and pace. He notes Hernandez is a good grappler but Roman Dolidze is a phenomenal grappler with power. Angelo thinks Hernandez will take over in later rounds with pressure, similar to Umar vs Morab. He expects Hernandez to win a decision after giving up early rounds.

"I am going to lean Anthony Hernandez here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Big Brady is confident in Anthony Hernandez, calling him a future champion with an unmatched pace. He acknowledges Dolidze's power and tricky grappling, but believes Hernandez will survive the early rounds and take over as Dolidze's cardio fades. Brady predicts a late finish, specifically a fifth-round TKO.

fifth round knockout
"I'm going to go with Hernandez here. I'm going to take him to win by fifth round knockout TKO."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Connor picks Anthony Hernandez because Hernandez has a clear, consistent game plan focused on relentless wrestling and pace, while Dolidze is clumsy, slow, and has poor takedown defense. He notes that Hernandez's cardio and mental toughness are key, and that Dolidze's only path to victory is an opportunistic finish early. Connor compares it to Ngannou vs. Gane, where the smaller wrestler exhausts the bigger opponent.

Odds mentioned: Dolidze opened +145, jumped to +285, currently +270; Hernandez opened -170, currently -330.
"You have to pick Anthony Hernandez. He's the only guy who seems like a good middleweight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

The host expects Hernandez to utilize his classic smothering grappling game and put it on Dolidze. He acknowledges Dolidze will land big shots early, but believes Hernandez can eat them and eventually break Dolidze, leading to a round four or five finish by submission.

submission, round 4 or 5
"look for him to utilize his classic smothering grappling game and really putting it on to and as long as he can eat a few big shots early that are definitely going to land from I think it's just a …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Roman Dolidze

The MMA Guru picks Roman Dolidze, highlighting his underrated jiu-jitsu and ability to attack from his back. He believes Dolidze's size and presence on the feet will trouble Hernandez, who relies on volume. He predicts a submission or ground-and-pound TKO in round two or three, possibly after hurting Hernandez on the feet.

Dolidze wins by submission or TKO in round 2 or 3
"I'm going with Roman Dizzier. ... I think Ditzi's got a perfect anti-grappler style."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that Hernandez's wrestling process is relentless and that Dolidze's takedown defense is terrible (33%). He notes that Hernandez is a smaller middleweight but has great cardio, while Dolidze is a big, lumbering oaf who gasses. Zane thinks Hernandez will exhaust Dolidze against the cage and eventually get a finish.

Odds mentioned: Dolidze opened +145, jumped to +285, currently +270; Hernandez opened -170, currently -330.
"Yeah, he's the only guy who seems like a good middleweight."
WIN vs Brendan Allen
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · Feb 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brendan Allen 0 14 of 26 53% 53 of 71 0 of 1 0% 1 3 2:58
Anthony Hernandez 0 30 of 42 71% 72 of 91 4 of 8 50% 0 2 10:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brendan Allen 0 8 of 13 61% 30 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:09
Anthony Hernandez 0 3 of 5 60% 10 of 13 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:23
2 Brendan Allen 0 1 of 1 100% 6 of 8 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:44
Anthony Hernandez 0 13 of 16 81% 25 of 29 1 of 1 100% 0 1 4:04
3 Brendan Allen 0 5 of 12 41% 17 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:05
Anthony Hernandez 0 14 of 21 66% 37 of 49 2 of 5 40% 0 1 3:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brendan Allen 14 of 26 53% 8 of 19 3 of 3 3 of 4 10 of 22 2 of 2 2 of 2
Anthony Hernandez 30 of 42 71% 30 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0 12 of 17 0 of 1 18 of 24
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brendan Allen 8 of 13 61% 4 of 9 2 of 2 2 of 2 6 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 2
Anthony Hernandez 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 3
2 Brendan Allen 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 13 of 16 81% 13 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 12 of 15
3 Brendan Allen 5 of 12 41% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 1 3 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 14 of 21 66% 14 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 11 of 14 0 of 1 3 of 6
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brendan Allen vs. Anthony Hernandez

Round 1
In 2018, Allen (24-6, 12-3 UFC) and Hernandez (13-2, 1 NC; 7-2 UFC) collided for the LFA middleweight strap, and “Fluffy” emerged the victor by decision. Since then, both men have made their mark on the UFC’s 185-pound division, and a spot in the top 10 now looms for the winner. Referee Mike Beltran will get to handle the proceedings for the co-main event, one that should have two extra rounds. Gloves are touched, and Allen opens up with a hearty low kick. Allen probes out a few jabs, and he disrupts Hernandez who is looking for an early takedown. Allen nails his foe with a leg kick and then wraps a head kick around the guard. With Hernandez stunned, Allen jumps on to his back, only for Hernandez to hurl him to his back. Allen scrambles wildly to get to his knees, and he nearly gets Hernandez’ back again in the process. Hernandez stops him from completing a takedown or back take, and he leans Allen against the wall. “Fluffy” wrangles Allen to the mat, where he lands in side control. The knee guard from Allen protects him from losing mount, and he sits up and leans up against the cage while Hernandez is still behind him. Allen tries to stand, but Hernandez is on him like a cheap suit, pushing on the back of Allen’s neck while always flirting with some kind of submission setup. Allen turns him around to claim top position, flipping Hernandez to his back and dropping down a few strikes. Hernandez strikes back off his back, being busy enough to make Allen think twice about recklessly passing guard. Allen partially isolates an arm-triangle choke while sitting in half guard, and Hernandez motions a thumbs-up to his corner. Allen postures up and jacks Hernandez in the jaw with a few punches, and he isolates Hernandez’ arm for an armlock setup. Allen nearly takes the back, but he slides into mount and starts hammering Hernandez in the face with right hands and elbows. Allen wraps up a rear-naked choke, and it is briefly under the chin until Hernandez turns himself to his back and slithers out. Allen smashes down with a number of elbows that split Hernandez’ forehead open, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Allen

Round 2
Allen kicks off the round with another powerful low kick, and Hernandez sprints at him in pursuit of a takedown. As they whirl around, Hernandez succeeds in grounding Allen. Hernandez hangs on from the side and keeps Allen on his seat, and he leans over to wrap up a guillotine choke. Allen escapes the submissions without a modicum of concern, and he keeps moving in hopes of rolling his foe over. Hernandez follows the scrambles and grabs hold of a rear-naked choke, and this time it is Allen who turns the proper directly to break it up. Hernandez gets one hook in while Allen is on his knees, and he elbows Allen in the side of the head. Allen hangs onto the wrist to keep Hernandez from gaining a dominant position, and he shoots in for a takedown only to find Hernandez setting up an anaconda choke. Allen knows it is coming and turns to his back, permitting Hernandez to establish top position for the moment. Allen turns over voluntarily and keeps spinning, and Hernandez him until exploding around to take Hernandez’ back. Allen has his own hook in, and he attempts a brute force neck crank without bothering to fasting his hooks or the grip all the way. Hernandez grits his teeth and stands up, chucking Allen to his back and dropping down heavy strikes. Allen scrambles and gives up half guard on his back so as to not be in submission danger, but this opens him up to Hernandez’ right hand and elbow. A few more strikes come from Hernandez before the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez

Round 3
The fighters hug it out as the third round begins, and this time Allen punches instead of kicks to get going. Hernandez strikes back, and Allen claims he was poked in the eye while Hernandez states it was a closed fist. Beltran calls time and checks the replay, and when they determine it was indeed a punch, they resume the action. Hernandez surges right forward to grapple, and Allen pushes it off and drills Hernandez in the face with a left hook. Hernandez clutches his eye as he is suddenly in jeopardy, and he backs away. When Hernandez’ back hits the fence, he swings hard, and Allen dodges and attempts a standing submission. The two scramble and return to their feet, where Allen again clubs his man in the face to hurt him. Hernandez desperately pursues a takedown, and Allen deliberately lowers himself to one knee to take knees to the head out of the equation. When Hernandez sells out for a takedown, Allen keeps himself afloat and never truly goes down, although he returns to one knee down. Hernandez has his hands clasped around the waist, and he turns the corner and gets Allen down to his seat momentarily. Allen winces and returns to a knee, and Hernandez slips his arm beneath the chin for a second but is stopped from getting a choke. Hernandez keeps heavy on top of his opponent, not letting Allen get to his feet, and Allen appears frustrated and wants to fight instead of wrestle in this stalemate position. Hernandez has no plan on changing gears, and he snatches up a rear-naked choke and falls off the side. Allen uses two-on-one wrist control to free himself from the worst of it, and he smacks Hernandez and knocks his mouthpiece out. The two fall all over the place, possibly from fatigue or sweat, and Hernandez is the one who establishes top position raining down strikes. Allen backwards somersaults in a desperate attempt to get out, but Hernandez hangs onto him until the final buzzer. This could have used two more rounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Hernandez)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Hernandez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Hernandez)

The Official Result
Anthony Hernandez def. Brendan Allen via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Angelo, a self-proclaimed 'fluffy underestimator', picks Anthony Hernandez for the first time. He credits Hernandez's incredible cardio as the key weapon that weaponizes his other skills, noting his win over Michel Pereira was wildly impressive. He thinks the pace will matter even in a three-round fight, and that Hernandez's work ethic makes the difference.

"I don't know if I've ever picked Fluffy to win a fight ever, but I am now."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Big Brady picks Anthony 'Fluffy' Hernandez, noting his relentless wrestling and scrambling pace that most middleweights can't keep up with. He thinks Brendan Allen may have early success and win the first round, but Hernandez will wear him down, take him down, and dominate the later rounds. He references Allen's poor performance against Imavov, where he was out-grappled, and says if that version of Allen shows up, Hernandez finishes him. He predicts Hernandez by decision.

by decision
"I think Hernandez is going to wear on Allen I think he's going to get him tired I think he's going to take him down rinse his repeat out scramble him end up on top getting into some dominant positions"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Connor picks Hernandez, agreeing that Allen's gas tank is a concern and that Hernandez's pressure will be too much. He notes that Allen improved a lot in the UFC and has submitted good grapplers, but Hernandez's style of constant scrambling and pace is a bad matchup. Connor also mentions that Hernandez's striking is terrible but his willingness to eat damage and keep pace makes it work.

"I think there's a real good shot for him to get this one back"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

The host believes Hernandez is clearly in his prime and will utilize his classic style: putting Allen through the ringer, pushing him against the cage, dragging him to the ground, and being too much. He predicts Hernandez wins on the scorecards.

"I think Hernandez is clearly in his prime I think we're going to see him utilize his classic Hernandez Style putting Allen through the ringer through the the spin cycle pushing him against the cage dragging him to the ground …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

The Guru picks Hernandez, citing his positional grappling dominance and better cardio compared to Allen. He notes Allen's tendency to lose position by chasing submissions, as seen in the Jacob Malkoun fight. He believes Hernandez is a better version of Malkoun—bigger, rangier, more durable—and will outgrapple Allen over three rounds. He also questions Allen's fight IQ.

"I'm going to go Anthony Hernandez over Brendan Allen I'm going to tell you why with a few key fights in Brendan Allen's career"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Zane picks Hernandez because he believes Hernandez's relentless scrambling and pace will overwhelm Allen, who gassed against Nassourdine Imavov. He notes that Allen's best path is to catch Hernandez in a submission, but Hernandez never accepts a bad position and keeps scrambling. Zane also points out that Allen's striking is poor and he will willingly fall into the clinch, playing into Hernandez's game.

"i'm picking hernandez but that's not to say that alan might not just hit one nice back take in round one and choke him out"
TKO (elbows) R5 2:22 · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Oct 19, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Hernandez 0 152 of 212 71% 219 of 293 10 of 29 34% 0 0 15:42
Michel Pereira 0 24 of 53 45% 29 of 62 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Hernandez 0 27 of 52 51% 30 of 55 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:25
Michel Pereira 0 15 of 34 44% 17 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
2 Anthony Hernandez 0 30 of 47 63% 47 of 68 2 of 6 33% 0 0 3:18
Michel Pereira 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:35
3 Anthony Hernandez 0 44 of 55 80% 64 of 77 2 of 6 33% 0 0 4:17
Michel Pereira 0 3 of 8 37% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Anthony Hernandez 0 29 of 35 82% 48 of 62 3 of 6 50% 0 0 4:35
Michel Pereira 0 3 of 3 100% 5 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
5 Anthony Hernandez 0 22 of 23 95% 30 of 31 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:07
Michel Pereira 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Hernandez 152 of 212 71% 125 of 182 22 of 24 5 of 6 43 of 81 12 of 14 97 of 117
Michel Pereira 24 of 53 45% 8 of 27 16 of 26 0 of 0 20 of 45 4 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Hernandez 27 of 52 51% 20 of 42 5 of 7 2 of 3 17 of 40 4 of 5 6 of 7
Michel Pereira 15 of 34 44% 7 of 19 8 of 15 0 of 0 12 of 28 3 of 6 0 of 0
2 Anthony Hernandez 30 of 47 63% 25 of 42 4 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 15 0 of 1 21 of 31
Michel Pereira 2 of 7 28% 0 of 4 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Anthony Hernandez 44 of 55 80% 31 of 42 11 of 11 2 of 2 8 of 15 4 of 4 32 of 36
Michel Pereira 3 of 8 37% 1 of 4 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 0
4 Anthony Hernandez 29 of 35 82% 28 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 6 3 of 3 21 of 26
Michel Pereira 3 of 3 100% 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Anthony Hernandez 22 of 23 95% 21 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 5 1 of 1 17 of 17
Michel Pereira 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Angelo picks Michel Pereira as an underdog, having bet on him at +135. He believes Pereira's athleticism, power, and grappling are too much for Anthony Hernandez, whose only path to victory is grappling. He thinks Pereira is the more dynamic and dangerous fighter, and that Hernandez cannot out-strike him. He notes Pereira's recent success at middleweight and dismisses cardio concerns, saying Pereira has shown he can maintain pace. He is confident Pereira wins.

bet on Pereira at +135
"Michelle P is the pick and I think we're going to Rattle off a couple of Underdog wins"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Big Brady picks Anthony Hernandez by third-round submission. He sees it as Pereira early, Hernandez late. Pereira has three quick wins but gasses; Hernandez has great cardio and grappling. If Hernandez survives the first five to seven minutes, he will take over, take Pereira down, and finish him in the third round. He mentions a good live bet spot.

third round submission, live bet
"I like Hernandez here probably a good live bet spot for sure um but yeah I like Hernandez to get it done I'll say third round submission for for Anthony Hernandez"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Connor picks Hernandez, comparing his style to a larger, more skilled Tristan Connelly who will make Pereira pay for every bad decision. He notes that Hernandez's pace and pressure grappling are exactly the kind of game that troubled Pereira in the past. However, he acknowledges that Hernandez might get knocked out early, as he has been hurt in many of his recent wins.

"I am very much inclined to pick Anthony Hernandez while also having to acknowledge that he might just get dusted"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2026 (fight day)
Anthony Hernandez

Lucrative James believes Fluffy Hernandez will overwhelm Sean Strickland with constant forward pressure, takedown attempts, and volume. He notes that Strickland struggles when opponents don't let him establish his jab and one-two rhythm. James predicts Hernandez will win a decision by outworking Strickland over five rounds.

"I think Fluffy Hernandez has a lot of volume... he's going to walk forward, shoot takedowns, throw kicks, throw punches... I believe that is the way to offset Shawn's game entirely."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Pereira will be dangerous in the opening five minutes, but Hernandez has done a great job wearing opponents down, keeping them in the clinch, taking them down, and utilizing submission attempts. Hernandez will wear Pereira down and get a finish in the third or fourth round.

finish in round 3 or 4
"I think that Hernandez has done a great job in terms of finding ways to wear opponents down keep them in the clinch take them to the ground Matt return them utilize a ton of submission attempts but eventually wear …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

The Guru picks Pereira despite acknowledging Hernandez's grappling skills. He believes Pereira's athleticism, power, and body work will be too much, predicting an early finish by TKO or submission. He notes Pereira has finished all his middleweight opponents quickly and envisions Pereira stuffing a takedown, landing knees to the body, and getting a guillotine or rear-naked choke.

early finish, TKO or submission, body work
"I'm going to go Mel P I think he's two athletic too strong too powerful"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Zane picks Pereira because of his insane speed at middleweight, which he believes Hernandez will not be ready for. He acknowledges that if Hernandez survives the early onslaught, he will likely take over with pressure and grappling, but Zane trusts Pereira's athleticism to get the job done early. He notes that Pereira has learned to pace himself after the Tristan Connelly loss, but still has that loss in him.

Pereira opened at +132, now +115; Hernandez opened -147, now -128
"I am gonna take Pereira cuz he's just so goddamn fast at middleweight"
WIN vs Roman Kopylov
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 3:23 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Hernandez 0 34 of 77 44% 39 of 82 3 of 14 21% 2 0 4:05
Roman Kopylov 0 35 of 57 61% 41 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Hernandez 0 20 of 42 47% 23 of 45 1 of 11 9% 0 0 2:05
Roman Kopylov 0 16 of 29 55% 21 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Anthony Hernandez 0 14 of 35 40% 16 of 37 2 of 3 66% 2 0 2:00
Roman Kopylov 0 19 of 28 67% 20 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Hernandez 34 of 77 44% 28 of 68 4 of 6 2 of 3 24 of 65 8 of 10 2 of 2
Roman Kopylov 35 of 57 61% 21 of 43 8 of 8 6 of 6 34 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Hernandez 20 of 42 47% 16 of 35 3 of 5 1 of 2 13 of 35 6 of 6 1 of 1
Roman Kopylov 16 of 29 55% 8 of 21 3 of 3 5 of 5 16 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Anthony Hernandez 14 of 35 40% 12 of 33 1 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 30 2 of 4 1 of 1
Roman Kopylov 19 of 28 67% 13 of 22 5 of 5 1 of 1 18 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Anthony Hernandez vs. Roman Kopylov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-205), Kopylov (+170)

Round 1
To kick off the main card, two middleweights that struggled early on in their UFC tenures only to figure things out as they went along will come crashing into one another. One of these four-fight win streaks will come to a grinding halt, whether it is wild submission specialist Hernandez (11-2, 1 NC; 5-2 UFC) or knockout artist Kopylov (12-2, 4-2 UFC). In their last eight outings, the two men have combined for seven finishes, so referee Jason Herzog needs to be on his A-game from here on out. There is a show of respect as the two decide to touch gloves before engaging. The two toss leg kicks at one another to immediately engage, and Hernandez dives forward after a low leg only to get stood up by the Russian. Hernandez threatens with another takedown to keep Kopylov guessing, and when that comes up short, Kopylov kicks him in the lead calf. Kopylov intercepts Hernandez coming in with a straight left hand, and he lands a solid body kick that draws a wince out of “Fluffy.” Kopylov just misses with a massive head kick, and Hernandez continues to put his foot on the gas even if he is throwing far less volume. Kopylov scores another body kick, and Hernandez races at him to get hold of a takedown, but that is also rebuffed. Kopylov bounces off and drives a one-two on the chin, and Hernandez tries to fires back and reaches him with an overhand right. Kopylov gets off a low kick and a right hand over the top, and his body kick that follows lands with emphasis. Kopylov remains busy even when on his bike, and he stops only to defend a single from “Fluffy.” Hernandez drags his man to one knee, but he cannot keep him there. Kopylov jabs until he is backed off from a right hand, and Hernandez gives chase and scores a right hook before diving after a double. Kopylov defends against it, and Hernandez changes to a single as he pushes Kopylov into the wall. Kopylov keeps his balance despite the numerous attempts, and he bounces off the fence to stay on his feet when Hernandez redoubles his effort. Hernandez doggedly looks for takedowns, and when stood up, he rips an elbow before shooting low again. Kopylov thwarts him, so Hernandez changes his strategy to just try to toss him down with a body lock. Kopylov spins all the way around but does not go down, and Hernandez knees him high and elbows him a few times before one final shot at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov

Round 2
The middleweights touch ‘em up to start off the second stanza, and Hernandez reaches out early with a swatting right hand. Kopylov retaliates with a thudding kick to the ribs, and Hernandez darts forward to jab the body. Kopylov digs a left to the body, and Hernandez grins but might have been hurt with it. Hernandez continues to pour on his pressure and offense, walking through shots and allowing himself to get hit so he can strike back. Kopylov stuns him with a body kick, and he lands a few additional shots, fires off a head kick that bounces off the guard and scores one more kick to the ribs. Hernandez sticks his tongue out, and he wades forward for a takedown. Kopylov plants his shin on Hernandez’ belly while Hernandez is shooting, and Hernandez partially gets Kopylov down but cannot quite ground him completely. Hernandez gets stonewalled, and he threatens with a guillotine before dropping down to scoop up the Russian’s legs and plat him on the mat. Hernandez instantly starts fishing for a neck crank, with a rear-naked choke grip not in play. Kopylov defends the hands, but Hernandez wraps both hooks around the waist and squeezes with all his might and pulls back. Kopylov is in grave danger, and he toughs it out and signals a thumbs-up to show he is still in it. Hernandez sees this gesture and adjusts his grip to the other side, where his forearm slices beneath the chin. This time, it is done, and Hernandez knows it as he grins to the camera and nods. Hernandez squeezes and waits, and Kopylov thinks about going out on his shield but taps out instead. An elated Hernandez points to his corner as soon as he releases the grip, and he chucks his mouthpiece in a celebratory gesture after a big victory.

The Official Result
Anthony Hernandez def. Roman Kopylov R2 3:23 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Angelo picks Roman Kopylov as a dog, citing his superior striking and improved takedown defense. He notes Hernandez averages seven takedowns per fight but struggles to hold people down. He expects Kopylov to make Hernandez pay for every entry and potentially finish. He plans a small bet on Kopylov and may bet the under if a 2.5 round line is available.

under 2.5 rounds (potential)
"I'm going to pick Roman kopilov he's got good takedown defense hopefully his get up game has improved a little bit"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Big Brady picks Anthony Hernandez to win by second-round submission, specifically an anaconda choke. He highlights Hernandez's incredible wrestling (6.79 takedowns per 15 minutes) and cardio, and notes Kopylov's poor ground game as seen in losses to du Plessis and Roberson. He warns that Hernandez must avoid Kopylov's body attacks, which have hurt him in the past, but expects him to wrestle early and break Kopylov.

Hernandez by submission, round 2, anaconda choke
"give me Anthony Hernandez to win this fight by second round submission and I think it's going to be an anaconda"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Cody leans toward Kopylov as a dog, noting his technical striking and improved takedown defense after training in Dagestan. He questions whether Hernandez can get takedowns early and often. He sees value in Kopylov at plus money, but admits he's not fully confident pre-fight.

"I guess I would lean towards a dog shot on kopov but but yeah it really comes down it's like is Fluffy going to be able to get those takedowns early and often and I wouldn't be surprised if he …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lock picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Daniel Vreeland is extremely confident in Anthony Hernandez, calling it a slam dunk. He highlights Hernandez's relentless pressure wrestling, cardio, and submission skills, noting he has taken down and submitted high-level grapplers like Rodolfo Vieira. He believes Kopylov's takedown defense is untested and that he gasses, while Hernandez will wear him down and finish him. He thinks the true price should be -350 to -400.

"I think this is a slam dunk... I think that the true price of this fight might sound crazy, I think fluffy Hernandez should be a minus 350 minus 400 favorite here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Hernandez has a grapple-heavy, pressure style that breaks opponents. Kopylov is dangerous with combinations but Hernandez will push him to the cage, chain wrestle, and eventually break him. Expects a third-round submission.

"I'll have to lean Hernandez here getting a third round submission Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Paul picks Hernandez, comparing him to Jacob Malkoun for his relentless wrestling and cardio. He notes Hernandez's ability to chain-wrestle and submit opponents, as seen against Rodolfo Vieira and Josh Fremd. He questions Kopylov's takedown defense against a high-volume wrestler, noting that Kopylov has gassed in fights. He believes Hernandez will grind on Kopylov and eventually get a finish or decision.

"for me the pck is Fluffy Hernandez all right."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

The MMA Guru picks Anthony Hernandez, citing his underrated grappling and pace. He notes Kopylov was outgrappled by Cole Roberson and had moments of struggle against lesser opponents. He believes Hernandez's cardio and wrestling will overwhelm Kopylov, predicting a finish in round two or three. He also mentions Kopylov's body is open for body shots.

"I'm going Anthony Hernandez over Roman Kopylov... I think he'll be able to outgrapple him and I love his grappling."
TKO (elbows and punches) R3 1:01 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · May 20, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Hernandez 0 30 of 51 58% 33 of 55 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:41
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 63 of 88 71% 77 of 105 6 of 15 40% 4 0 7:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Hernandez 0 25 of 42 59% 27 of 45 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:23
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 15 of 27 55% 17 of 30 2 of 8 25% 2 0 2:29
2 Anthony Hernandez 0 4 of 8 50% 5 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 28 of 39 71% 39 of 50 3 of 6 50% 2 0 3:54
3 Anthony Hernandez 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 20 of 22 90% 21 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Hernandez 30 of 51 58% 21 of 42 8 of 8 1 of 1 17 of 35 11 of 14 2 of 2
Edmen Shahbazyan 63 of 88 71% 55 of 79 4 of 4 4 of 5 15 of 33 8 of 8 40 of 47
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Hernandez 25 of 42 59% 17 of 34 7 of 7 1 of 1 13 of 27 10 of 13 2 of 2
Edmen Shahbazyan 15 of 27 55% 13 of 24 1 of 1 1 of 2 7 of 19 6 of 6 2 of 2
2 Anthony Hernandez 4 of 8 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0
Edmen Shahbazyan 28 of 39 71% 22 of 33 3 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 13 2 of 2 19 of 24
3 Anthony Hernandez 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edmen Shahbazyan 20 of 22 90% 20 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 19 of 21
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Anthony Hernandez vs. Edmen Shahbazyan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-240), Shahbazyan (+200)

Round 1
It’s an all-California middleweight rumble in the co-main attraction, as the resurgent Shahbazyan (12-3, 5-3 UFC) looks to halt the impressive but brief win streak of “Fluffy” Hernandez (10-2, 1 NC; 4-2 UFC). Finish rates of 92% for the former and 80% for the latter mean that while the judges might not be needed for the bout’s duration, referee Herb Dean very well may be required. Before the action begins, the two 185ers try to touch gloves and miss, so they abandon it. Shahbazyan lands the first blow with a right hand, and Hernandez responds with a takedown entry. Shahbazyan loads up with a right hand to hurt “Fluffy” and bends him over, and Hernandez backs away to the wall as Shahbazyan unloads with a series of punches. Hernandez backs away, shells up, sticks his tongue out and counters. Hernandez then goes for a takedown, and he gets tossed out of the way and tagged with a serious jab from his foe. Shahbazyan steps in with a one-two that knocks Hernandez back, and Hernandez rolls with it to take away the worst of it but he cannot buy a takedown at this point. Shahbazyan counters an entry with a knee and stands his foe up when trying, and he scores an elbow and looks to counter with a takedown of his own. Hernandez jumps guard with a guillotine choke, and he bails on it to stand when it is not close. When both are up again, Shahbazyan kicks his foe in the chest, and Hernandez gives chase and drills him the face with a right hand. Hernandez jams his man into the wire, where he looks for a body lock takedown or a throw. Hernandez chains his attempt to a single, and he runs his foe from one side of the cage to the other but cannot ground him. Shahbazyan defends well and plants a knee on the chest, and Hernandez slashes an elbow over the top to cut open the left eyebrow. Hernandez shoots and finds himself in guillotine choke danger, and he turns all the way through it to get out. Shahbazyan rolls to his back to go after an armbar, and he loses the grip and winds up in choke danger on his own side. Hernandez looks for a modified arm-in guillotine choke, and he lets it go so that he can take the fight down on his own terms. Shahbazyan works his way up, and he eats a few elbows and succumbs to a double with 20 seconds to spare. Hernandez sets up a rear-naked choke while his foe is seated, and Shahbazyan stands up and takes a knee on the chin before the horn sounds to end the wild frame.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez

Round 2
The middleweights meet in the center of the cage, and Hernandez lands a punch, a kick and shoots in for a takedown. When Shahbazyan turns it around on him, Hernandez goes for his unorthodox guillotine again. Shahbazyan turns through to get to a knee, and he stands up and pushes off with a right hand. The two trade jabs, their pace slowed momentarily, and Hernandez chains a jab into an elbow. When Shahbazyan backs into the cage, Hernandez rings his bell with a straight right hand. This leads to a tie-up, and both men fight to get a takedown and drop to a knee. Shahbazyan drops down for a single, and Hernandez dumps him on his face, turns the corner and hits a double. Hernandez lets him sit up so he can punch him in the face, and he stays pinned to a fatiguing Shahbazyan and looks to pick him up and throw him down again. Shahbazyan stands up and gets kneed in the chest, and he is fading fast as Hernandez is on him, smothering him or landing punches. Hernandez grabs hold of a guillotine choke, and he flips his foe over to full mount. When Shahbazyan scrambles, Hernandez transitions the choke to another side, and then to an anaconda. Shahbazyan escapes them all, winding up on top, but Hernandez is on him with another guillotine in the blink of an eye. Hernandez takes his back and looks for a choke, all while working Shahbazyan over with elbows when he can find one. Hernandez goes for another one of his strange guillotine chokes, and he lets it go to take the back and fish for a rear-naked choke. Shahbazyan turns and defends properly, but he cannot get Hernandez off of him. Hernandez sits up with fierce punches and elbows, and he thumps Shahbazyan with elbows to the head, body and thigh until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Hernandez
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Hernandez

Round 3
The fighters have reached the last round, and Hernandez reintroduces himself to his foe with a head kick. It does not take more than about 12 seconds for Hernandez to hit a takedown, and he sits up and starts belting the spent Shahbazyan with punches and elbows.
The elbows from “Fluffy” have opened up another cut on the face of his opponent, and he sits up and keeps beating on his doomed adversary. Hernandez, seeing that he has Shahbazyan at the end of his rope, slashes down with elbows and adds in few punches to seal the deal. Dean, seeing that Shahbazyan is completely cooked, intervenes for a merciful stoppage
, saving the young fighter from any further punishment. “Fluffy” made a seriously statement to the rest of the middleweight division with this gutsy performance, and he might have a number next to his name next week, now celebrating four stoppages in row.

The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Edmen Shahbazyan R3 1:01 via TKO (Elbows and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 14, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Angelo picks Anthony Hernandez confidently, citing his superior grappling and high takedown volume. He notes that while Hernandez's control could be better, Shahbazyan struggles to get back to his feet when taken down. He considers Hernandez safe for parlays.

"fluffy is the pick and is potentially safe for parlays so I'm pretty confident in Anthony Hernandez to get this done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 12, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Big Brady picks Anthony Hernandez to submit Edmen Shahbazyan in the second round. He calls it a terrible matchup for Shahbazyan, who has historically faded in later rounds. Hernandez is known for his cardio, pressure, and wrestling, and should break Shahbazyan. He notes Shahbazyan is dangerous early but expects Hernandez to weather the storm and finish him in the second.

submission in round 2
"give me Hernandez to break Emma Shabazz and I'll take Hernandez second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Cody highlights Hernandez's relentless wrestling and cardio, noting he averaged 8 takedowns in his last two fights. He contrasts Shahbazyan's tendency to fade after the first round and poor takedown defense. He expects Hernandez to wear Shahbazyan down with chain wrestling and secure a late finish or dominant decision.

"I have to go with the favorite here with Hernandez and I'm gonna have to trust him a little bit this week."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Connor picks Shahbazyan, citing his much cleaner striking and the potential to finish Hernandez early. He acknowledges the risk of Hernandez's pace but believes Shahbazyan's improved camp (ditching Tiverdian, sparring with Sean Strickland, training at Xtreme Couture) and his composed performance against Lungiambula are good signs. He thinks Shahbazyan could easily knock Hernandez out or tune him up, and that Hernandez's wide-open striking leaves opportunities for Shahbazyan to land clean shots.

Shahbazyan opened at +264, currently +196; Hernandez opened at -313, currently -225.
"I'm picking Shahbazyan. I just think he's so much more a dynamic threat that he could just as easily crush Hernandez very much like Kevin Holland did."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Daniel Levi confidently picks Anthony 'Fluffy' Hernandez. He highlights Hernandez's relentless takedown game, noting he landed 16 takedowns in his last two fights (8/11 vs Josh Fremd, 8/14 vs Marc-André Barriault). He believes Hernandez will survive Shahbazyan's dangerous first round and then break him with pressure and grappling, as Shahbazyan has historically faded past the first round. Levi acknowledges Hernandez's durability concerns (body shots) but thinks his wrestling and cardio will be the difference.

"I'm gonna go with Anthony fluffy Hernandez to defeat Edmund shabazian"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 15, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

The host is very confident in Anthony Hernandez, calling it a smash spot. He believes Hernandez's relentless forward pressure, cardio, and grappling will drown Shahbazyan, who has cardio issues. He predicts a submission in round two, noting that if Shahbazyan doesn't get an early KO, Hernandez will take over.

round two by submission
"I love Hernandez in the spot... I feel like stylistically if he can evade that big punch punching power early he's gonna drown shabazzian and finish him later on in this matchup no doubt about it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Paul agrees, citing Hernandez's improved pace and cardio, and the stylistic advantage of his wrestling against Shahbazyan's suspect takedown defense. He notes that Shahbazyan's cardio issues are likely to be exploited, leading to Hernandez dominating later rounds.

"it's Hernandez for me as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

The MMA Guru picks Anthony Hernandez, calling him a style designed to beat Edmen Shahbazyan. He highlights Hernandez's pace-pushing wrestling and scrambles, which he believes will get into Shahbazyan's head. He notes Shahbazyan's demons may creep in as the fight goes on, and that Hernandez is a nightmare matchup. He acknowledges a chance Shahbazyan wins by first-round TKO but expects Hernandez to overcome early danger and win.

"I'm going with Anthony Hernandez ... he's sort of like the new Pace pushing wrestler on the Block in that division"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Zane picks Hernandez because he believes Shahbazyan's historical issues with pace and grappling pressure will resurface. He notes that Hernandez has one of the best gas tanks and pushes a relentless pace, which is exactly the kind of problem Shahbazyan has struggled with. Even with Shahbazyan's improved camp and confidence from his last win, Zane needs to see more than a win over Dalcha Lungiambula to trust him against a pressure fighter like Hernandez.

Shahbazyan opened at +264, currently +196; Hernandez opened at -313, currently -225.
"I'm picking Hernandez here. I just think this seems like the exact kind of problem that Shahbazyan has had so often."
Technical Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 1:53 · UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Sep 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Hernandez 0 39 of 60 65% 58 of 84 8 of 14 57% 2 0 8:45
Marc-André Barriault 0 25 of 53 47% 34 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Hernandez 0 19 of 34 55% 25 of 42 3 of 8 37% 0 0 3:04
Marc-André Barriault 0 13 of 29 44% 19 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
2 Anthony Hernandez 0 18 of 23 78% 31 of 39 2 of 2 100% 1 0 4:06
Marc-André Barriault 0 10 of 20 50% 13 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Anthony Hernandez 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 3 of 4 75% 1 0 1:35
Marc-André Barriault 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Hernandez 39 of 60 65% 31 of 52 8 of 8 0 of 0 18 of 35 8 of 12 13 of 13
Marc-André Barriault 25 of 53 47% 16 of 44 9 of 9 0 of 0 15 of 42 10 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Hernandez 19 of 34 55% 15 of 30 4 of 4 0 of 0 11 of 23 5 of 8 3 of 3
Marc-André Barriault 13 of 29 44% 8 of 24 5 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 24 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Anthony Hernandez 18 of 23 78% 15 of 20 3 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 9 3 of 4 10 of 10
Marc-André Barriault 10 of 20 50% 7 of 17 3 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 15 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Anthony Hernandez 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marc-André Barriault 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Angelo picks Hernandez because he is a superior grappler who should get takedowns against Barriault, who has been taken down by lesser grapplers. He notes that Barriault is the better striker, so Hernandez must be careful on the feet. Angelo believes Hernandez's path is clear: takedowns and control.

"i like fluffy to get the takedowns to get the win but he's definitely gonna need to be careful on his feet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Big Brady picks Anthony Hernandez to win by decision. He highlights Hernandez's relentless wrestling (5.39 takedowns per 15 minutes with 70% accuracy) and cardio. Brady notes that Barriault has poor takedown defense but a good get-up game, so Hernandez may not hold him down for long. However, Brady believes Hernandez's pace and pressure will wear down Barriault, and he expects Hernandez to wrestle his way to a decision victory. He also mentions that the striking should be competitive, with a slight edge to Barriault.

decision
"give me fluffy hernandez to win give me fluffy hernandez to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Cody thinks Hernandez's relentless wrestling and cardio will overwhelm Barriault. He notes Barriault's recent losses and that he was knocked out by Chidi Njokuani. Cody expects Hernandez to grind out a decision or possibly get a submission.

Hernandez by submission +300
"i feel like hernandez just get on him like a dog on a bone wrestle him to the ground be relentless press him up against the cage tire him out"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Daniel Levi picks Marc-André Barriault at plus 155 odds, placing one unit. He likes Barriault's move to Sanford MMA, improved takedown defense, and body attack potential against Hernandez, who has shown vulnerability to body shots. He thinks Barriault's output and cardio can carry him in a close fight, but acknowledges Hernandez's submission threat and grinding style. He sees value in the underdog.

Bet one unit on Marc-André Barriault moneyline at +155
"I took andre barrio plus 155 i can't say i'm super confident but what i can say is that i think it has the potential to be a very very close fight"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Jacob is all-in on Hernandez, noting that Barriault's takedown defense is poor and that Hernandez is a better wrestler than Jordan Wright, who was about to dominate Barriault before getting caught in a guillotine. Jacob believes Hernandez will not make that mistake and will dominate the wrestling. He thinks the -174 odds are good value.

"i'm all in on anthony hernandez and i think it's a pretty good value too"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 16, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Hernandez will drown Barriault with his wrestling and pace, similar to a poor man's Cain Velasquez. Barriault is not a big finisher and Hernandez's durability is the only question mark. If Hernandez stays conscious, he will win via takedowns and pressure. Barriault's heavy strikes will be countered with level changes. Hernandez by decision at +200 is a good spot.

Hernandez by decision at +200
"Anthony Hernandez will drown him with that wrestling he'll drown him with that pace and I think that even the big shots that are coming coming back from the Barrio side will be countered with level changes and takedowns"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Paul leans Hernandez, noting Barriault's takedown defense issues. He thinks Hernandez can wrestle and potentially submit him. He mentions the prize picks line of 3 takedowns for Hernandez and thinks that's achievable.

"fluffy should be able to just at least match barrio's pace if it's on the feet"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

The MMA Guru picks Anthony Hernandez by decision. He is impressed by Hernandez's pace and grappling, especially after his win over Josh Fremd. He thinks Barriault relies on outpacing opponents but won't be able to outpace Hernandez. He notes Barriault has been KO'd by Chidi Njokuani and struggled against durable fighters. He expects Hernandez to take over in later rounds with heavy grappling and improved striking, winning a close 29-28 decision.

"i'm gonna go anthony hernandez decision win based on the last two rounds"
WIN vs Josh Fremd
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · Apr 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Hernandez 0 48 of 71 67% 91 of 124 8 of 11 72% 3 0 10:45
Josh Fremd 0 31 of 54 57% 43 of 67 1 of 1 100% 1 1 2:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Hernandez 0 17 of 31 54% 26 of 44 4 of 5 80% 1 0 4:12
Josh Fremd 0 16 of 30 53% 22 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Anthony Hernandez 0 13 of 17 76% 25 of 31 2 of 4 50% 1 0 1:42
Josh Fremd 0 13 of 20 65% 16 of 23 1 of 1 100% 1 1 2:37
3 Anthony Hernandez 0 18 of 23 78% 40 of 49 2 of 2 100% 1 0 4:51
Josh Fremd 0 2 of 4 50% 5 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Hernandez 48 of 71 67% 39 of 62 8 of 8 1 of 1 9 of 25 5 of 9 34 of 37
Josh Fremd 31 of 54 57% 16 of 37 13 of 15 2 of 2 15 of 35 12 of 14 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Hernandez 17 of 31 54% 13 of 27 3 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 17 4 of 8 6 of 6
Josh Fremd 16 of 30 53% 7 of 20 7 of 8 2 of 2 9 of 21 6 of 8 1 of 1
2 Anthony Hernandez 13 of 17 76% 11 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 11 of 11
Josh Fremd 13 of 20 65% 8 of 14 5 of 6 0 of 0 6 of 12 5 of 5 2 of 3
3 Anthony Hernandez 18 of 23 78% 15 of 20 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 17 of 20
Josh Fremd 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 30, 2022 (10 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Angelo gives a slight edge to Anthony Hernandez due to his UFC experience and better pure BJJ. He acknowledges Josh Fremd's athleticism and potential, but notes the short notice and nerves for Fremd. He calls Fremd one of the most live underdogs on the card.

"i do think that the fact that this is short notice there's probably going to be some nerves here for josh ... i think anthony's ufc experience i think those factors do give anthony hernandez the slight edge here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Big Brady picks Anthony Hernandez to win by second-round submission. He expects Fremd to land big shots early but Hernandez to take over with pace and cardio, eventually finishing Fremd. He notes Hernandez's submission game is very good, having submitted Rodolfo Vieira, and that Fremd is coming in on short notice.

second round submission
"give me anthony hernandez second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Josh Fremd

Cody leans towards Fremd as an underdog, thinking the price is wrong. He notes Fremd's wrestling, cardio, and cleaner striking, and that Hernandez has been inactive and has a questionable chin. Cody acknowledges Fremd got knocked out by Rodrigues but thinks he can outwork Hernandez. He signs up for Fremd as a low-confidence dog.

"sign me up for for frab and this is going to be really low on the prp list"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Levi praises Josh Fremd's offensive skills (calf kicks, jab, knees) and size, but criticizes his tall man's defense and tendency to get dropped. He likes Anthony Hernandez's experience, toughness, and submission game (guillotine, d'arce). He thinks Hernandez can capitalize on Fremd's defensive openings but is not crazy about laying -200, so he passes on betting.

fight doesn't go the distance (minus 500, too expensive)
"i do lean anthony hernandez i'm just not crazy about laying -200 in a spot against a very game guy"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

I love Hernandez as a prospect; he reminds me of a prime Cain Velasquez with pressure and grappling. I think he will push the pace from the start, land takedowns, and get a finish via ground and pound or submission. The fight not going to decision is one of my favorite lines. I see him getting his hand raised inside the distance.

fight doesn't go to decision -350
"I love Hernandez... I think we're going to see him start to recapture that as he starts stringing a couple wins together... I think he gets that finish."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul passes on this fight, saying it terrifies him too much. He notes Hernandez's submission win over Vieira was due to fatigue, and that Fremd got knocked out by Gregory Rodrigues. Paul doesn't like Hernandez at -200 and doesn't see enough in Fremd to bet. He considers the under but doesn't commit.

"i'm never gonna end up betting anthony hernandez at minus 200 against anybody in the ufc"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

The MMA Guru picks Anthony Hernandez, noting that Josh Fremd is on short notice. He expects Fremd to start well but fade, with Hernandez getting a third-round submission or TKO. He highlights Hernandez's toughness and ability to survive dangerous positions.

third round finish prediction
"i'm gonna go with anthony hernandez in the late rounds by like third round submission or tko"
Rodolfo Vieira - Fight History
LOSS vs Eric McConico
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · Apr 25, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rodolfo Vieira 1 40 of 70 57% 58 of 93 4 of 15 26% 1 0 6:24
Eric McConico 0 54 of 102 52% 73 of 123 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rodolfo Vieira 1 10 of 13 76% 15 of 19 4 of 9 44% 1 0 3:15
Eric McConico 0 11 of 14 78% 19 of 22 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:21
2 Rodolfo Vieira 0 20 of 33 60% 27 of 42 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:48
Eric McConico 0 20 of 46 43% 24 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rodolfo Vieira 0 10 of 24 41% 16 of 32 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:21
Eric McConico 0 23 of 42 54% 30 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rodolfo Vieira 40 of 70 57% 15 of 43 11 of 11 14 of 16 35 of 64 5 of 6 0 of 0
Eric McConico 54 of 102 52% 42 of 87 8 of 11 4 of 4 49 of 95 5 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rodolfo Vieira 10 of 13 76% 4 of 7 2 of 2 4 of 4 8 of 11 2 of 2 0 of 0
Eric McConico 11 of 14 78% 5 of 7 4 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 12 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Rodolfo Vieira 20 of 33 60% 8 of 20 7 of 7 5 of 6 17 of 29 3 of 4 0 of 0
Eric McConico 20 of 46 43% 16 of 42 2 of 2 2 of 2 18 of 42 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Rodolfo Vieira 10 of 24 41% 3 of 16 2 of 2 5 of 6 10 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Eric McConico 23 of 42 54% 21 of 38 2 of 4 0 of 0 22 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rodolfo Vieira vs. Eric McConico
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vieira (-225); McConico (+180)

Round 1
It’s grappler vs. not-so-grappler as the middleweights remain in center stage. “The Black Belt Hunter” Vieira (11-4, 6-4 UFC) is coming off his first knockout loss, a head kick to Bo Nickal last November. Earlier in that same night, McConico (10-4-1, 1-2 UFC) had his block knocked off by Baisangur Susurkaev. Someone will shake off the sting of their past crushing defeat, and they have three rounds or fewer to get that done. Referee Kerry Hatley will keep tabs on the middleweights. The fighters decide to touch gloves before testing their mettle.
McConico dips and ducks his way into attack, and when he tosses out a body kick, Vieira slings back a right hand behind the ear that hurts him badly and sets him down. Vieira dives after him and takes hold of a choke attempt, but the slippery McConico is able to get out of the first attempt. Vieira looks to take the back standing, and he is turned around and slides off. When he hits his seat, “The Black Belt Hunter” grabs hold of an armbar. McConico wall-walks with his toes all the way around to contort his arm in a funny direction, but his joints hold up as he takes the pressure off his elbow and gets out of the dangerous predicament. McConico totally escapes, and Vieira follows right after him to complete a double. McConico sits up and uses the fence as his ally to stand back up again, all while keeping the wire as a way to take any submission leverage off of him. Vieira stays tightly pressed against McConico, constantly threatening with something.
Vieira considers dropping to his knees to hit another takedown, and he transitions from a double to a single and lifts McConico’s right leg up between his own legs. McConico stays balanced while hopping around the cage, but the relentless Brazilian drags him to the floor with one hook around the left side. McConico stands up with Vieira clinging to him, and he scrapes the ADCC gold medalist off of him. When separated, McConico offers up a jab, a head kick and a front kick that makes him stumble back. Vieira walks him down without concern, and with his hands down, he takes two big punches on the sides of the face. Vieira tanks them and goes to the body, with McConico throwing back distance-keeping kicks. Vieira shoots when seeing a kick is coming, pressing McConico to the wall and scooping him up to set him down gingerly. “The Black Belt Hunter” rides out the round on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira

Round 2
Gloves are touched, with Vieira strutting to the center of the cage while pump-faking his way forward. Vieira pitches a naked leg kick that gets him countered over the top, with McConico just missing with a left hand as they consider grappling. McConico grabs a clinch and is wobbled back from a right elbow, and he gathers his thoughts and produces a shiner under Vieira’s left eye with his punches. They take turns going after one another, with McConico gaining the upper hand with a sharp one-two and a short flurry behind it. Vieira takes all of the punches on the jaw, head movement practically nonexistent, but he does not appear fazed. McConico steps through what comes back his way, with Vieira backing off constantly and struggling to fight back. Vieira absorbs a one-two and offers one back, following one punch with a left to the body and a takedown shot.
McConico puts his back immediately to the wire to keep his balance, with Vieira content to lean on him and control him. The Brazilian grinds on his adversary, offering a trip or two while McConico keeps his footing the whole time. McConico leans his head against the fencing, with Vieira stomping on his toes and kicking at the back of his calf. McConico puts his back to the cage again, punching his way out but not landing anything of note while doing so. McConico clips Vieira with a right hook, and he parries a right coming back to his ribs. The round concludes with McConico missing on a pair of big swings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 McConico
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 McConico
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 McConico

Round 3
Vieira is sucking wind between rounds, but he comes out of his corner fresh enough while offering a glove touch. McConico pecks with his jab while Vieira chips at the lead leg with kicks. Vieira tries to hand-fight, but it leaves him wide open for one-twos fired at his nose. Vieira bounces off the cage when retreating, and he resets and walks into another straight right hand down the pipe. Vieira kicks low and fakes a takedown, with McConico not biting on it and instead feeding the Brazilian a steady diet of jabs. Vieira gets tired of this same pattern, and he rushes forward to engage a clinch.
As Vieira remains tight, the round likely still quite close, he slips his legs between and around McConico’s to take the fight down. When Vieira sells out for it, McConico pancakes him and pushes “The Black Belt Hunter” to his seat. McConico frames off with elbows on the forehead, while Vieira is on his side hoping to reverse his fortunes. Vieira fights his way up, elbowing McConico sharply, and McConico throws back as hard as he can. Vieira shakes it off and digs a right hand to the side. McConico walks Vieira down, boxing him up as Vieira is out of ideas and not swinging back. The American ends the fight with a head kick and raises his arms in the air, very possibly staging the sizeable upset while surviving the danger of Vieira in Round 1.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 McConico (29-28 McConico)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 McConico (29-28 McConico)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 McConico (29-28 McConico)

The Official Result
Eric McConico def. Rodolfo Vieira via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Angelo picks Rodolfo Vieira but is hesitant, noting that Vieira is a world-class BJJ competitor but doesn't like to be hit and can turn his head away. He acknowledges that Eric McConico could give Vieira a hard time on the feet and that Vieira might shoot desperate takedowns. He says he will stay away from betting on this fight because it could get weird fast, but ultimately picks Vieira as the better MMA fighter and grappler.

Angelo says he's probably going to stay away from this fight betting wise.
"I'm probably going to stay away from this fight betting wise. I'm going to pick Ralffo."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Big Brady picks Rodolfo Vieira over Eric McConico. He is very low on McConico, citing low volume, poor chin, and susceptibility to takedowns. He believes Vieira will easily take him down and submit him in the first round, calling it Vieira's easiest fight in years.

Vieira wins by first round submission
"Give me Rodolfo Vieira to win this fight by first round submission."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Connor agrees that Vieira should win easily, calling McConico a 'house gatekeeper' who doesn't belong in the UFC. He points out that McConico has no technical ability and fights scared, while Vieira has the strength and grappling to finish him. Connor also notes that the betting line is accurate and there's no edge.

Vieira opened at -300, McConico at +250; lines haven't moved, indicating no betting value.
"unnecessary fight except for hudolpho viera yep so yeah hudolpho viera his strike output in in the ufc i mean these are ufc stats they're thin so you know give it give it a little grain of salt there but …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

James picks Vieira, believing his elite grappling will overwhelm McConico. He notes McConico's struggles on bottom and predicts a first-round submission via arm triangle.

submission in round one
"Vieira via submission in round one is my official prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Vieira is a high-level BJJ black belt who has improved his striking, but he is 36 and has a questionable gas tank. McConico is well-rounded but makes mistakes on the feet that will allow Vieira to get takedowns. Vieira should eventually get the fight to the ground and find a submission, but the -225 price is steep.

Vieira by submission
"I think Vieta will eventually start getting to his grappling, wearing Monaco down, and I think that eventually leads to a Vieta submission victory."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Zane believes Rodolfo Vieira should easily win this fight, as Eric McConico is a poor fighter with no future in the UFC. He notes that Vieira has a massive strength advantage and should be able to take McConico down and submit him, similar to his win over Anthony Hernandez. Zane emphasizes that McConico lacks technical ability, assertiveness, and has never beaten a quality opponent.

Vieira opened at -300, McConico at +250; lines haven't moved, indicating no betting value.
"he should go out there and just run through maconico whether he takes him down he should fight him exactly the way he fought when he lost to anthony hernandez yeah just dump the gas tank out there and choke …"
LOSS vs Bo Nickal
KO R3 2:24 · UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bo Nickal 1 77 of 121 63% 94 of 143 2 of 3 66% 1 0 1:28
Rodolfo Vieira 0 24 of 64 37% 31 of 71 0 of 6 0% 0 0 1:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bo Nickal 0 28 of 46 60% 37 of 60 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:05
Rodolfo Vieira 0 7 of 19 36% 11 of 23 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:32
2 Bo Nickal 0 38 of 59 64% 46 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Rodolfo Vieira 0 14 of 39 35% 17 of 42 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:28
3 Bo Nickal 1 11 of 16 68% 11 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rodolfo Vieira 0 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bo Nickal 77 of 121 63% 56 of 93 13 of 19 8 of 9 64 of 103 7 of 9 6 of 9
Rodolfo Vieira 24 of 64 37% 7 of 38 6 of 12 11 of 14 23 of 63 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bo Nickal 28 of 46 60% 22 of 38 4 of 5 2 of 3 16 of 29 6 of 8 6 of 9
Rodolfo Vieira 7 of 19 36% 2 of 10 1 of 3 4 of 6 6 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Bo Nickal 38 of 59 64% 27 of 45 7 of 10 4 of 4 37 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rodolfo Vieira 14 of 39 35% 4 of 24 4 of 8 6 of 7 14 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Bo Nickal 11 of 16 68% 7 of 10 2 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rodolfo Vieira 3 of 6 50% 1 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bo Nickal vs. Rodolfo Vieira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nickal (-225), Vieira (+185)

Round 1
Dan Miragliotta is the referee. Nickal opens with a jab and then a left. He backs up and lands a front kick and a leg kick. They collide and Nickal lifts Viera and executes an emphatic slam. He unleashes a barrage of short punches to the head as Vieira strands. Nickal switches to knees and then lands an elbow that cuts the grappling ace. Vieira turns nickal into the fence and lands some close quarters offense of his own. Nickal frees himself and they’re back int the center of the Octagon. Nickal just misses a left. Vieira ducks under a high kick and Vieira shoots for a takedown against the fence. Nickal briefly threatens with a guillotine but Vieira is OK. Vieira stands and Nickal lands a hard elbow before they break. Vieira fires off a straight right .Nickal has a head kick blocked. A couple lefts land for the American. Vieira probes with a low kick. Nickal pumps a jab and then lands a front kick. Vieira keeps the pressure on , but Nickal is active with his striking, particularly left hands. Another left and a jab get through for Nickal. The round ends without further incident.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nickal

Round 2
Vieira opens with a solid right hand. Vieira catches Nickal coming forward with another rigth. Nickal steps in with a hard body kic. Nickal freezes Vieira with a combination, then lands another body kick. Nickal lunges in and lands another left hand. A couple jabs form Nickal snap Vieira’s head back. Nickal is winning exchanges, relying on combinations and superior hand speed. Vieira is bleeding profusely now. The Brazilian counters a kick with a right and then shoots for a takedown against the fence. Vieira gets an underhook and lands some punches before Nickal frees himself. Another straight left gets through for Nickal. Vieira lands a right as Nickal moves forward. Nickal rocks Vieira with a left and then finds the range on a short uppercut. Vieira is still in the fight, but he’s still bleeding and his eye is swelling shut. Nickal sprawls on a takedown with about 20 seconds left. Nickal lands some short punches and a knee as Vieira stands.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nickal

Round 3
Vieira lands a decent right during an initial exchange. Nickal pumps out his jab. Nickal lunges in with a left and then lands another left to the body. Another lunging left connects for the Penn State All American. Nickal with a hard inside leg kick. The crowd is getting restless with the pace of the bout, which is mostly one shot at a time — but that’s working well for Nickal. Nickal connects on a 1-2 and then seemingly out of nowhere,
he unleashes a left head kick that lands clean. An unconscious Vieira collapses in a heap on the canvas
, and Nickal knows he needs no follow-up offerings. Nickal climbs on the cage and flips off the crowd in celebration as he rebounds from his first career defeat in emphatic fashion.

The Official Result
Bo Nickal def. Rodolfo Vieira via KO (Head Kick) R3 2:24
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Angelo picks Bo Nickal but is hesitant due to the high price (-220) and Nickal's recent loss. He believes Nickal will play it safe, use his scrambling skills, and win a decision. He thinks the opening odds (Nickal as underdog) were more accurate. He expects a boring fight and does not bet.

"I'm going to pick Bo here because I think what he's going to do is play it safe... I don't think I'm going to touch these minus 220 odds though."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Big Brady picks Bo Nickal but is unenthusiastic, calling it the worst fight on the card. He expects a boring decision, similar to Nickal's fight with Paul Craig, where Nickal avoided grappling and struck for 15 minutes. Brady believes Nickal can dictate where the fight takes place but thinks both fighters may prefer to strike, leading to a sloppy decision. He predicts Nickal wins a 'greasy decision' with the crowd behind him.

decision
"I'm going to say Bo Nickel wins a greasy decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Cody picks Vieira as a value underdog. He notes that Bo Nickal's striking has looked poor in recent fights and that he may be hesitant to wrestle Vieira due to his BJJ. Cody believes that if the fight stays on the feet, Vieira can out-strike Nickal, and if it goes to the ground, Vieira has the advantage. He also speculates that the UFC may be setting Nickal up to fail.

"Too much value there. PRP pick. PRP pick Rodolfo Vieira. Don't love it. I really don't, but there's some serious value there."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Connor also picks Vieira but is hesitant, agreeing with Zane that the fight is a coin flip. He notes that both fighters have shown they can melt down, and expects a staring contest. Connor mentions that Vieira has a jab but Bo Nickal is southpaw, which could lead to a miserable fight.

Odds: Vieira opened +140, jumped to +175, currently +194. Connor says 'I think it's likely to be bad and decisive'.
"I'm still going to pick Vera in that fight, but yeah, it could, it could be a real coin flip."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Daniel sees this as Nickal's fight to lose, as he has the wrestling to neutralize Vieira's jiu-jitsu and the athleticism to improve rapidly. However, he is cautious because Nickal looked broken in his last fight and needs to show he has rebounded. He picks Nickal but plans to watch and learn rather than bet heavily.

"As a pure pick, I'm going to take Bo Nickel, but I'm going to sit back and relax and enjoy the show."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Lucrative James picks Bo Nickal to win by decision, but with low confidence after Nickal's poor performance against Paul Craig. He believes Nickal has better wrestling and striking, and can defend Vieira's takedowns and submissions. He expects Nickal to use his athleticism to control the fight on the feet and avoid danger on the ground. He predicts a decision win for Nickal.

by decision
"I'm going to pick Bo Nickel here. I'm going to pick Bickel via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Nickal lands bigger shots on the feet, stuffs Vieira's takedowns, and punishes him with enough volume to win on the scorecards. Vieira won't step on the gas like Paul Craig did.

"I expect Nickel to land bigger shots on the feet, stuff the takedowns of Vieiraa and punish him with enough volume to end up winning this fight on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that he already bet Vieira at plus odds. He points out that Nickal's striking has been exposed and that Vieira is a live underdog. Paul thinks that even if the fight is a close striking affair, Vieira has a chance to win a decision. He is comfortable with the value and believes it's a good betting spot.

"I already bet it. Bet it like plus 205."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

The Guru hesitantly picks Bo Nickal to win a close 29-28 decision. He notes that Nickal has learned from his loss to Dolidze and should be able to outpoint Vieira, who lacks finishing threat on the feet and has cardio issues. However, he acknowledges Vieira's submission threat and the possibility of a grappling exchange. The Guru expects a low-action striking match.

"I'm going to go bow nickel, though. I am going to go bow nickel. I think he'll figure out Rodo Vieiraa."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Zane picks Vieira but is hesitant, noting the fight is entirely dependent on whether Vieira can get out of his own head. He highlights that both fighters have similar problems with inexperience and mental fragility, and expects a bad fight. Zane thinks it's a coin flip and would be happy with even odds.

Odds: Vieira opened +140, jumped to +175, currently +194. Zane says 'I would be happy as to this was at dead, even odds'.
"I have to pick it off over here. Same. But if he doesn't show up, like if he gets in his own head about this fight, then it could be very touch and go."
WIN vs Tresean Gore
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Aug 02, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rodolfo Vieira 0 89 of 159 55% 96 of 169 1 of 14 7% 0 0 3:14
Tresean Gore 0 41 of 114 35% 50 of 125 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rodolfo Vieira 0 15 of 26 57% 19 of 30 1 of 7 14% 0 0 2:09
Tresean Gore 0 11 of 25 44% 13 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rodolfo Vieira 0 36 of 66 54% 36 of 66 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:19
Tresean Gore 0 14 of 45 31% 15 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Rodolfo Vieira 0 38 of 67 56% 41 of 73 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:46
Tresean Gore 0 16 of 44 36% 22 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rodolfo Vieira 89 of 159 55% 51 of 118 22 of 25 16 of 16 87 of 155 2 of 4 0 of 0
Tresean Gore 41 of 114 35% 22 of 88 4 of 10 15 of 16 41 of 114 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rodolfo Vieira 15 of 26 57% 7 of 17 4 of 5 4 of 4 13 of 23 2 of 3 0 of 0
Tresean Gore 11 of 25 44% 3 of 15 2 of 3 6 of 7 11 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rodolfo Vieira 36 of 66 54% 23 of 51 8 of 10 5 of 5 36 of 65 0 of 1 0 of 0
Tresean Gore 14 of 45 31% 11 of 38 0 of 4 3 of 3 14 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Rodolfo Vieira 38 of 67 56% 21 of 50 10 of 10 7 of 7 38 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tresean Gore 16 of 44 36% 8 of 35 2 of 3 6 of 6 16 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tresean Gore (189.5: Missed Weight) vs. Rodolfo Vieira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vieira (-225); Gore (+185)

Round 1
Aiming to go on the run everyone expected out of him, Vieira (10-3, 5-3 UFC) will gladly accept a large percentage of his foe’s purse for missing weight by three and a half pounds. Unable to clock in at the middleweight cap, Gore (5-3, 2-3 UFC) may find himself at a serious disadvantage going against a lights-out grappler like “The Black Belt Hunter.” Necks may be threatened early and often in this preliminary contest, with referee Mark Smith telling them to get going as they touch ‘em up. They touch gloves despite the weight offense.
Vieira resides in the center of the Octagon jabbing the body, and Gore is warned for outstretched fingers. A jab from Vieira gets Gore’s attention, and he lands another and a low kick to follow. Gore lets loose his own hard calf kick, and he wings a right hand that bangs into the guard. Vieira shoots in for a single, pushing the heavier man to the wall but not putting him down. Rather than stick around in the clinch, Vieira pushes off and takes a right hand on the outside from his foe. Vieira shoots for another single, and Gore shuts it down in the open cage. Both men trade sharp jabs, and the Brazilian races forward to pursue a double. Like the other two, Gore stops it, so Vieira doubles down with a body lock as he tries to muscle “Mr. Vicious” to the floor. Gore posts off his hand to stay afloat, and he escapes yet again.
Gore turns his hips into an especially powerful low kick, and he doubles up with a kick to the same spot. Vieira sprints forward, clasping his hands beneath the backside of his opponent and securing the takedown he has sought for several minutes now. Gore hits the floor, and Vieira sits on top of him in a partial mount position with Gore sitting straight up against the wall. Gore pulls one leg out, and then wriggles the second out to pop back to his feet. Vieira clings to him from behind while standing, and Gore hand-fights to break the grip around him. Vieira jams a knee to the body, and Gore answers this and pushes away to get some space. Vieira probes him with jabs, and Gore swings harder with his responses. Vieira connects with a hefty leg kick, countering one flying his way with a right hand. The Brazilian leans to avoid a looping right hand as the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Vieira

Round 2
As the second round begins, both men jab at one another. Vieira dodges a front kick, and Gore is warned again for his fingers pointed towards his opponent. Vieira goes to the body and head, ducking a fierce right hand for a takedown shot. Gore stonewalls him, and the jabs fly from both sides. Vieira swings hard with three punches, missing with all but the end of one, although he follows with a one-two and a single. Gore breaks off from the shot and wings a trio of punches that come up short, but they have Vieira on guard. They land punches at the same time, and Vieira chains a one-two behind his jabs. Vieira kicks low, and Gore does the same. Vieira surprises his foe with a powerful right hook, and his punches back Gore to the wall. Vieira times a punch to duck under for a single, keeping Gore on one leg but not grounding him.
Vieira lands an inside leg kick that disrupts an overhand right after they split apart, and he gets off a second before Gore can respond. Vieira bops Gore in the nose with several jabs, staying busy with his leg kick. A hard right hand from Vieira makes Gore have to blink it out, and Vieira dances away from the counters and is right in Gore’s face with three flying fists. Gore misses a head kick by a matter of inches, and Vieira aims a right hand to the ribs and takes a right hand from the other direction. Vieira snaps the head back with a jab, and his leg kick is starting to give Gore issues. Gore rakes Vieira in the eye, and Smith warns him to knock it off. Vieira plants a one-two on the jaw, and Gore pushes off with his thumb that swipes the eyeball. Smith calls time, and he issues a hard warning to the fouling fighter. They resume after a 30-second break, and Vieira gets right behind his jab again. The jab stops Gore from loading up on much, although Gore does loop a big right hand that hits Vieira in the back of his shoulder. The horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Vieira

Round 3
As Gore opens up to start the last round, Vieira shoots in on his hips for a takedown. Gore shuts it down, and the two start driving home jabs. Gore gets a little more active with kicks from both legs, but Vieira is still chipping at him any time he can. Vieira winds up and knocks Gore back with a mighty left hand, and Gore is tough as nails as he is staring to show damage. The low kicks are making Gore’s knee buckle as they connect, and Vieira’s one-two continues to find its target. The Brazilian races forward after a single, lifting Gore’s leg up but ultimately only backing him to the wall. Gore breaks free and circles out to take a few jabs off the forward bow. Gore kicks the body, and Vieira catches it and thinks about trying something before letting it go to roast Gore’s ribs with a few heavy blows. Gore reaches his man with a left hook, but it is one-and-done as Vieira goes to his body with punches.
Gore’s right hand marks up Vieira’s left cheek, popping a mouse beneath it that starts trickling blood. Vieira pays it no mind, continuing to beat on the body. “The Black Belt Hunter” strings a number of punches together that sets up a takedown shot, but the heavier Gore is able to shut it down when he puts his back to the fence. Vieira abandons it and wipes his face, and he looks outside the cage to listen to instructions and paws out a jab that Gore does not like. Vieira plants a one-two on the cheek, and his leg kick make Gore hobble back. Gore tries to sit down on a right hand, but Vieira is in his face with a one-two that he is starting to put some mustard behind. Gore pitches a low kick, and Vieira pursues a double. While it does not get his man down, Vieira bullies Gore until the match concludes. Barring something strange, this should be Vieira’s first win that goes the distance.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (30-27 Vieira)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (30-27 Vieira)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (30-27 Vieira)

The Official Result
Rodolfo Vieira def. Tresean Gore via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
LOSS vs Andre Petroski
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · Feb 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rodolfo Vieira 0 58 of 99 58% 60 of 101 1 of 11 9% 0 0 1:50
Andre Petroski 0 55 of 111 49% 58 of 114 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rodolfo Vieira 0 14 of 26 53% 14 of 26 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:24
Andre Petroski 0 13 of 34 38% 13 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Rodolfo Vieira 0 24 of 40 60% 24 of 40 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:27
Andre Petroski 0 22 of 37 59% 23 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rodolfo Vieira 0 20 of 33 60% 22 of 35 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:59
Andre Petroski 0 20 of 40 50% 22 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rodolfo Vieira 58 of 99 58% 31 of 66 6 of 8 21 of 25 53 of 93 5 of 6 0 of 0
Andre Petroski 55 of 111 49% 26 of 72 7 of 13 22 of 26 54 of 109 0 of 0 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rodolfo Vieira 14 of 26 53% 5 of 14 1 of 2 8 of 10 14 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andre Petroski 13 of 34 38% 4 of 18 3 of 8 6 of 8 13 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rodolfo Vieira 24 of 40 60% 14 of 29 5 of 6 5 of 5 22 of 37 2 of 3 0 of 0
Andre Petroski 22 of 37 59% 11 of 25 3 of 3 8 of 9 22 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Rodolfo Vieira 20 of 33 60% 12 of 23 0 of 0 8 of 10 17 of 30 3 of 3 0 of 0
Andre Petroski 20 of 40 50% 11 of 29 1 of 2 8 of 9 19 of 38 0 of 0 1 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Andre Petroski vs. Rodolfo Vieira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vieira (-245), Petroski (+200

Round 1
It’s an all-grappling extravaganza in the middleweight division, with Vieira (10-2, 5-2 UFC) one of the best submission artists in BJJ possibly putting things together finally and making a run. Standing in his way will be Petroski (12-3, 7-2 UFC) out of Renzo Gracie Philly, who knows his way in and out of a sub—both of the Philly variety and the necktie. The clock begins when referee Herb Dean says go, and the fighters acknowledge him and one another by tapping their hands together. Petroski lands a heavy low kick, and he keeps his guard up to defend from a surprisingly fast one-two. Vieira fakes for a takedown shot that draws a serious reaction out of Petroski, but he calms himself down and tosses out a head kick. Petroski chips at the front leg, and Vieira kicks him back far heavier. Vieira jabs the body with a front kick and takes a right hand on the chin to force a reset. Leg kicks come from both sides, and Vieira’s bobbing is keeping Petroski cautious. When Vieira crushes him, Petroski brains him with a powerful left hook that sends him hurtling face-first to the mat. The Brazilian bounces off the ground and back to his feet seemingly no worse for wear from the flash knockdown. More low kicks fly from both ends, and Petroski kicks Vieira coming in and shakes up his entry. Petroski wraps three punches on the side to further get Vieira’s attention, prompting the Brazilian to shoot in on his hips. Petroski stuffs the shot and gets back to kickboxing range, keeping his uppercut on the read to time as an intercepting strike. When Vieira does not shoot, Petroski lashes out with a left hook. The fighter both go after additional leg kicks, tossing them in when there is an opening. Vieira dives after a single, and the American turns when stopping it and breaks away. Petroski jabs the body and checks a kick, and a right hand from over the top nicks his cheek and causes a thin trickle of blood to flow. Vieira targets the blood spot with a few punches, and Petroski answers him with a successful takedown. Rather than play in the guard, Petroski bails on the position and stands, and he takes a front kick on the way up. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Petroski
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Petroski
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Petroski

Round 2
There is a clap of hands from the middleweights to get going, and Vieira jabs out and follows one with a stern right hand. Petroski circles away, not letting Vieira cut him off or corner him. When Petroski commits to an overhand right, Vieira shoots and fails. Petroski backs him off and dings him with a right hand, and he shuts down a secondary shot and works his way out. Vieira reaches his man with a right hand, and both fighters try to sweep the leg. There are single jabs from both sides to multiple targets, and Vieira uses a jab to set up a takedown. Petroski hits his seat for less than a second before springing off the floor, where he leans on the cage and tries to spin out. Vieira loads up on three power punches with Petroski’s back to the wall, and Petroski gets out before taking more and clubs Vieira on the nose with a right hook. Vieira strings together straight punches, landing cleanly on the American without too much concern about anything coming back. Vieira keeps giving chase throwing big punches, and Petroski’s head movement and footwork is on point enough to not take too much damage. The jiu-jitsu player cracks Petroski with a straight right, keeping to simple combinations of maybe three or so. Petroski walks into a jab that is so clean, he high-fives his opponent for hitting him with it. Petroski jams the front leg with a kick that makes Vieira stagger for a second, and he tags Vieira coming in with a right hand. The Brazilian is stood up with a jab when advancing, and he takes a pounding body kick right at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira

Round 3
The fighters touch ‘em up leading into the last round, and Vieira gets right in Petroski’s grill throwing punches and kicks. Petroski potshots him from afar, circling away not far from the cage while launching a front kick that brushes past the chin. Vieira grips a single and fails to ground his opponent, and Petroski makes him pay for the naked shot with a solid overhand right. Petroski doubles up on low kicks and checks one after, with the Brazilian’s limb welted, swollen and bright red. Vieira sprints in for a takedown, and when Petroski’s backside hits the canvas, he turns and climbs back upright using the fence as his ally. Vieira clings on from the back, hands clasped around the waist, and Petroski shakes it off and batters the lead wheel with a ferocious kick. Vieira’s jab has drawn some swelling of Petroski’s right eye, and he reacts every time there is a pump-faked takedown. Petroski beats down the front leg a few more times to visible success, and a shot from the jiu-jitsu ace is labored and does not reach the finish line. Petroski marks up Vieira’s face with his right hand, bloodying the cheek and going after it a few times. The American thumps up the body with a kick, and Vieira is right there in front of him with a one-two down the pipe. Petroski fires off an even heavier two-punch salvo, and his work on the front leg has slowed Vieira just enough to get in and out. Vieira shoots for a double that is stopped in its tracks, and Petroski walks him down and punches him square in the face. As if to send a final message, Petroski partially hits a single, and Vieira scampers away at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Petroski (29-28 Petroski)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Petroski (29-28 Petroski)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Petroski (29-28 Petroski)

The Official Result
Andre Petroski def. Rodolfo Vieira via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Andre Petroski

Angelo picks Andre Petroski, emphasizing that Petroski has good old-fashioned American wrestling and solid BJJ, so he should not be afraid of Vieira's Jiu-Jitsu. He worries that Petroski might abandon wrestling and strike, but if he sticks to wrestling, he wins. He notes that Vieira hits hard and has a better chin, but Petroski's wrestling is the key.

"I'm picking Andre patoski I'm doing it and I feel free to spam me with the gift of him knocking himself out shooting a takedown on Jacob malcun feel free because I deserve it picks and Bets not the same …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Big Brady picks Vieira by second-round submission, citing his superior grappling and durability advantage. Petroski has a weak chin and has been knocked out. Vieira has improved cardio and should get on top and finish with a head-and-arm choke. Petroski's grappling is a level below.

submission in round 2
"give me Vieira I'll take him to win by second round submission"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Connor picks Rodolfo Vieira, agreeing with Zane that Vieira is the more decorated grappler and more comfortable striker. He notes that Petroski's game is shallow and that he struggled against wrestlers like Jacob Malkoun. Connor believes Vieira's power wrestling and BJJ will be too much for Petroski, and that Vieira has clearly improved since his UFC debut. He also mentions that Vieira gets tired after kickboxing but fights well tired, and that Petroski is unlikely to push that pace.

Connor notes the odds: Vieira opened at -233 and is now -249, Petroski opened at +175 and is now +219. He says the odds make sense and that this is a pretty easy pick.
"I think this is a pretty easy pick, honestly. I mean, should given that in the discussion we had earlier, they, Petroski has some profile, I think, in the UFC, but they should probably get Vietta into actual contention sooner …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Lucrative James picks Rodolfo Vieira to win by submission in round 2 or 3, but is hesitant to lay the -250 price. He believes Vieira has the better submission grappling and intangibles like durability and mental toughness, while Petroski has better wrestling and possibly harder striking. He expects the fight to be messy on the feet, but if it goes to the ground, Vieira's jiu-jitsu will be a threat. He notes Petroski's chin is worse and Vieira is more technical on the feet, but Petroski could land a knockout. He sees value in Vieira's finishing ability but warns against the high price.

Rodolfo Vieira by submission in round 2 or 3
"I am picking Rulo Vieira in this one but I do not know how you can be confident laying a gigantic price tag like minus 250"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2025 (fight day)
Andre Petroski

Petroski has the power and wrestling advantage to shut down Vieira's grappling. He can either control from top position or use his striking to pressure and find a finish. Official prediction is Petroski by decision, but the host can't stomach parlaying Vieira.

Petroski by decision; cannot parlay Vieira
"I have to lean on the power that Petroski brings to the table... my official prediction is going to be Petroski by decision but I can't stomach thinking about parlaying Vieira in this spot."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

The MMA Guru picks Rodolfo Vieira over Andre Petroski, citing Vieira's superior jiu-jitsu and better standup. He criticizes Petroski's poor striking and believes Vieira can stuff takedowns, win on the feet, and potentially submit Petroski if he shoots on bad terms.

submission
"I am GNA go Rulo Vieira just based on the Jiu-Jitsu degree"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Zane picks Rodolfo Vieira confidently, citing Vieira's superior grappling credentials and improved MMA game. He notes that Vieira is a world champion BJJ practitioner who excels at top control and submissions, and has developed adequate boxing and wrestling. Zane contrasts this with Petroski, who relies on top control but will face a grappler of Vieira's skill and physical ability. He also mentions that Vieira has built up his cardio and is used to the pace of MMA fights, unlike in his loss to Hernandez.

Zane notes the odds: Vieira opened at -233 and is now -249, Petroski opened at +175 and is now +219. He says the odds make sense and that this is a pretty easy pick.
"So I got to pick him here. I think this is a pretty easy pick, honestly."
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R1 4:48 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Feb 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rodolfo Vieira 0 6 of 11 54% 14 of 21 3 of 3 100% 1 0 2:46
Armen Petrosyan 0 9 of 20 45% 14 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rodolfo Vieira 0 6 of 11 54% 14 of 21 3 of 3 100% 1 0 2:46
Armen Petrosyan 0 9 of 20 45% 14 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rodolfo Vieira 6 of 11 54% 4 of 6 0 of 2 2 of 3 6 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Armen Petrosyan 9 of 20 45% 1 of 10 1 of 3 7 of 7 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rodolfo Vieira 6 of 11 54% 4 of 6 0 of 2 2 of 3 6 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Armen Petrosyan 9 of 20 45% 1 of 10 1 of 3 7 of 7 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Armen Petrosyan vs. Rodolfo Vieira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vieira (-120), Petrosyan (+100)

Round 1
Rescheduled from November due to a fight-night scratch, this quintessential striker vs. grappler contest opens the main card, as ADCC and mundials all-star Vieira (9-2, 4-2 UFC) would like nothing more than to become the first man to tap out kickboxer Petrosyan (9-2, 3-1 UFC). No matter how it plays out, these two middleweights are primed to put on a show. Referee Mark Smith is on call to keep things on the up-and-up, and there is no bad blood between them as they even hugged it out before announcer Joe Martinez introduced them. They clap both hands together, and Petrosyan takes to the center of the cage and starts looking for a jab. It is Vieira who lands the jab first, although Petrosyan is quick to find it on his own. Petrosyan jams a low kick on the calf, and he scores a front kick and another low kick while Vieira is still watching him. They trade leg kicks, and Vieira hand-fights to prevent Petrosyan from landing a right hand. Petrosyan accepts this by turning his hips towards low kicks, and he uses a front kick like a jab. Vieira doubles up on a jab, leading Petrosyan to kicking him in the side. Vieira scoops up an easy single, and when Petrosyan scrambles, the Brazilian takes his back briefly. Petrosyan manages to get back up, only for “The Black Belt Hunter” to take him down again with a single. Vieira gets one hook around the side and allows Petrosyan to surrender position so he can fish for a choke. Petrosyan muscles his way back upright, and Vieira decides instead to lift “Superman” in the air and throw him down to the mat like a middleweight Matt Hughes. This time, Petrosyan is not so able to climb up the wall behind him, and Vieira moves to half guard while lowering his weight down for an arm-triangle choke. Vieira easily steps over to mount, and Petrosyan turns over to give up his back. Vieira lets this happen so he can get a rear-naked choke, and Petrosyan turns around to lay down flat on his back.
The Brazilian presses down with all his might and he locks down an arm-triangle choke, and it is academic at this point. With seconds to spare in the round, Petrosyan taps out twice, and he nearly goes out as Vieira releases the grip. Smith pulls them apart, and Petrosyan is incensed, perhaps not realizing that he surrendered.
Petrosyan tries to claim he did not submit to the move, but no one listens as the video plays on the big screen showing him tapping. Vieira still retains a 100% finish rate with his arm-triangle choke, and he claims the UFC record with the most submissions of this type in company history (four).

The Official Result
Rodolfo Vieira def. Armen Petrosyan R1 4:48 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Angelo highlights Rodolfo Vieira's world-class BJJ and explosiveness, and notes his improved striking and toughness shown in the Cody Brundage fight. Armen Petrosyan is a beast on the feet with a kickboxing background but has questionable takedown defense. Angelo believes the gap on the ground is wider than on the feet, and that Vieira will get takedowns and win. He is confident and looks for prop bets.

"Rolph Vier is going to be the pick pretty confident in him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Big Brady hesitantly picks Rodolfo Vieira to win by first-round submission. He notes that Vieira is a legit BJJ black belt with incredible grappling, while Petrosyan has terrible takedown defense (36%) and gives up his back. However, Vieira has poor cardio and if Petrosyan survives the first round, he likely knocks Vieira out. He calls it a pick 'em fight.

first round submission
"I'm going to stick with Roda Vieira I'm going to take him to win this fight by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Cody picks Vieira, acknowledging Petrosyan is better on the feet. He thinks if Vieira can get the fight to the mat early, his BJJ is a threat. Cody notes Vieira's cardio issues but believes he can survive 15 minutes. He sees this as a close fight where Vieira's submission threat gives him the edge.

"Rulo for me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Armen Petrosyan

Petrosyan has shown improved takedown defense and submission defense, as seen against Gregory Rodrigues. He should be able to keep the fight standing and use his kickboxing to wear on Vieira, potentially finding a TKO in the second round. Vieira has cardio issues and is dangerous early, but Petrosyan's patience and technical discipline should allow him to survive and take over late.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm going to call it petan TKO round two uh fight doesn't go to decision would obviously be my favorite spot in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Armen Petrosyan

Paul picks Petrosyan, citing his superior striking, cardio, and durability. He criticizes Vieira's takedown accuracy and cardio, noting he gassed against Anthony Hernandez. Petrosyan has shown good takedown defense and volume. Paul believes if Petrosyan survives the first round, he will take over and win by decision or late TKO.

"Arman all day"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Armen Petrosyan

The MMA Guru picks Armen Petrosyan because he believes Petrosyan has good takedown defense and a tucked-up style with short arms that makes him safer in close range. He thinks Petrosyan will chew up Vieira's legs and stuff takedowns early. He likes Petrosyan's work on the inside and expects him to get the win.

"I'm going to go with Arman petosan... I think he's got good takedown defense and uh I think he's going to chew up the legs of Rulo Vie the CF and then manag to stuff a lot of those takedowns …"
WIN vs Cody Brundage
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 1:28 · UFC on ESPN: Song vs. Simon · Apr 29, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rodolfo Vieira 0 10 of 15 66% 30 of 37 1 of 7 14% 2 0 4:19
Cody Brundage 1 20 of 29 68% 41 of 51 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rodolfo Vieira 0 9 of 14 64% 28 of 34 1 of 6 16% 0 0 3:04
Cody Brundage 1 20 of 28 71% 41 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
2 Rodolfo Vieira 0 1 of 1 100% 2 of 3 0 of 1 0% 2 0 1:15
Cody Brundage 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rodolfo Vieira 10 of 15 66% 8 of 12 2 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 5 2 of 2 7 of 8
Cody Brundage 20 of 29 68% 17 of 26 1 of 1 2 of 2 10 of 18 0 of 0 10 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rodolfo Vieira 9 of 14 64% 8 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 4 2 of 2 7 of 8
Cody Brundage 20 of 28 71% 17 of 25 1 of 1 2 of 2 10 of 17 0 of 0 10 of 11
2 Rodolfo Vieira 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cody Brundage 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cody Brundage vs. Rodolfo Vieira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vieira (-240), Brundage (+200)

Round 1
Grappling ace Vieira has lost two of his last three UFC appearances, while Brundage is coming off a 2-1 campaign in 2022. Mark Smith will officiate the bout. Brundage kicks the leg and the body of his foe, then backs up Vieira with heavy punches. A clubbing overhand right has Vieira on the defensive. The Brazilian shoots for a single leg to stem the tide. Brundage defends against the fence, and then Vieira falls to his back in an attempt to initiate a grappling exchange. Vieira doesn’t like the position and returns to pushing Brundage into the fence. Vieira is already cut near his left eye from the early assault. Vieira locks his hands briefly but Brundage denies the takedown. Moments later, Vieira knees the cup of his foe and time is called. They resume the fight in space. Brundage wallops Vieira with an overhand right and the Brazilian hits the canvas. Vieira clings to a leg from half guard as Brundage hammers away with punches and elbows from above. Brundage stalls out and Vieira gets to his feet, locks his hands and looks for a takedown against the fence. He sweeps the leg out from Brundage and gets the American down. Vieira is on Brudage’s back with about 45 seconds to work. Vieira unloads with hammerfists to the side of the head. Vieira gets his hooks in and continues to attack with punches until the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brundage
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Brundage
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brundage

Round 2
Vieira pressures Brundage near the fence and shoots for a single leg within 15 seconds. Brundage locks in a guillotine as they go to the canvas. Vieira pops his head free and can now work from half guard. The Brazilian looks to frame an arm triangle, but Brundage gives up his back to escape.
Brundage rolls back over again, a mistake which allows Vieira to lock the arm triangle in even tighter. This time there’s no escaping the submission, and Brundage has no choice but to ask out of the fight.
A big comeback victory for Vieira after being in danger early.

The Official Result
Rodolfo Vieira def. Cody Brundage via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) R2 1:28
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Cody picks Vieira but with low confidence, acknowledging Vieira's suspect cardio and takedown accuracy issues. He notes that Vieira's striking has improved and the constant takedown threat could open up opportunities. However, he is concerned about Vieira's gas tank and the possibility of Brundage taking him into deep waters. He ultimately sides with Vieira's world-class jiu-jitsu and pedigree.

"I will take Rodolfo Vieira but I'm gonna put a lower for this week despite that minus 250 price tag"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Connor believes Vieira's BJJ and takedown game will be too much for Brundage. He notes Vieira's improved striking and cardio since the Hernandez fight, and that Brundage's limited toolkit won't keep the fight standing. He sees Brundage's only path as a knockout or tireless grappling, but doubts he can execute.

Odds mentioned: Vieira opened -260, currently -238. Brundage opened +230, currently +207.
"I have to pick Vieira."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Paul picks Vieira and mentions a submission prop, noting that Vieira is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist. He acknowledges Vieira's struggles with cardio and takedown accuracy but believes he can win even standing up. He suggests there may be a prop bet on Vieira by submission, though he hasn't looked deeply into props yet.

Rodolfo Vieira by submission
"Rodolfo Vieira by submission not exactly recreating the wheel here that'll be my official pick for this matchup"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Zane agrees, noting Vieira's grappling advantage and Brundage's lack of a strong defensive wrestling game. He thinks Brundage's best chance is a clinch-heavy approach, but doubts he can compete with Vieira in that area. He sees Vieira as a strong favorite.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"I have to pick Vieira."
LOSS vs Chris Curtis
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Curtis 0 109 of 174 62% 128 of 193 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Rodolfo Vieira 0 86 of 145 59% 90 of 149 0 of 20 0% 0 0 2:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Curtis 0 17 of 27 62% 28 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Rodolfo Vieira 0 19 of 28 67% 22 of 31 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:08
2 Chris Curtis 0 46 of 67 68% 49 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Rodolfo Vieira 0 41 of 64 64% 42 of 65 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:57
3 Chris Curtis 0 46 of 80 57% 51 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Rodolfo Vieira 0 26 of 53 49% 26 of 53 0 of 10 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Curtis 109 of 174 62% 80 of 136 29 of 38 0 of 0 104 of 167 2 of 4 3 of 3
Rodolfo Vieira 86 of 145 59% 64 of 121 6 of 8 16 of 16 83 of 140 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Curtis 17 of 27 62% 8 of 18 9 of 9 0 of 0 13 of 22 2 of 3 2 of 2
Rodolfo Vieira 19 of 28 67% 9 of 18 3 of 3 7 of 7 18 of 25 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Chris Curtis 46 of 67 68% 36 of 54 10 of 13 0 of 0 46 of 66 0 of 1 0 of 0
Rodolfo Vieira 41 of 64 64% 32 of 53 2 of 4 7 of 7 39 of 62 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Chris Curtis 46 of 80 57% 36 of 64 10 of 16 0 of 0 45 of 79 0 of 0 1 of 1
Rodolfo Vieira 26 of 53 49% 23 of 50 1 of 1 2 of 2 26 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Chris Curtis vs. Rodolfo Vieira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Curtis (-135), Vieira (+115)

Round 1
The Cinderella story of Curtis (28-8, 2-0 UFC) continues with an exceptionally dangerous task ahead of him, as he faces “The Black Belt Hunter” Vieira (8-1, 3-1 UFC) and the Brazilian’s 100% finish rate. The interesting stylistic matchup will have referee Mark Smith on top of the proceedings, ready to step in at a moment’s notice. The middleweights shake hands, and Curtis claims the center of the cage to commence. A chess match ensues, with Vieira on the outside and a leg kick or two, while Curtis looks to cut him off. When Curtis lets go with two punches, Vieira darts forward in pursuit of a takedown. Totally fresh, Curtis muscles Vieira all the way around to end up on top. Vieira does not stay grounded for long before scrambling his way back to his feet, where he mashes Curtis into the fencing. Vieira looks to trip Curtis down, and he tosses out a knee. A second knee slams square into the cup, and Curtis falls to the ground in extreme pain. Smith sees it and gives Curtis time to recover, and Curtis takes 45 seconds before Smith resets them standing up. Curtis absorbs a low kick when advancing, and Vieira punches his way into a low-percentage takedown that is well short of the lead leg of his opponent. Vieira doubles down with a low single, jamming Curtis up to the wall, and Curtis leans against it so keep himself upright. Vieira keeps after the single, but Curtis stops it from landing. Vieira backs away and then dives into another attempt, and Curtis turns him aside and knees him in the face. The Brazilian slaps several clean leg kicks on the calf before loading up on an overhand right that stuns Curtis. “Action Man” gathers himself and loads up on a strike, but Vieira intercepts him with a kick that snaps into the cup. Curtis recovers as Smith determines with replay that the heel bumped into the cup, and that it was a legal blow, so he prompts Curtis to continue again without warning Vieira for a foul. Curtis keeps himself defensive so that he can stuff takedowns, and Vieira cracks him with several thumping punches on the chin. Curtis rips a pair of left hands to the liver, and Vieira sticks out a jab and goes back to the midsection with one of his own. The tense round ends with the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vieira

Round 2
The fighters touch gloves before getting after it, and Curtis leads the dance with a jab. Vieira is there to kick him back in the knee, and he lands another that makes Curtis recoil his leg. Curtis jabs the body and walks through a leg kick so that he can give chase, and he has a straight left hand go the midsection. Vieira scores a right hand and changes levels for a single, and it is deep as he lifts Curtis’ leg up in the air and pushes him all the way back to the fence. Vieira chains the attempt to a double, and that too fails as Curtis is able to stuff the attempt, even with his right leg trapped between Vieira’s. Vieira lets the leg go so that he can swing an uppercut, and Curtis absorbs it and comes out swinging. Vieira throws a body kick that connects with the cup, and Smith tells him to not worry about it and keep fighting. Vieira charges in for a takedown, and Curtis gets all the way back to pull his leg away and get to his feet. Curtis digs punches to the body while Vieira is aiming punches to the head, and Curtis is taking damage and getting shelled but not flinching. “Action Man” continues his assault to the body, and Vieira kicks him in the knee and it slides up to bump the cup of the unlucky Curtis. There is no pause here, and Curtis lets Vieira punch him so that he can counter him. Curtis slings a head kick that brushes past Vieira’s hair, and he knocks Vieira’s head back with a left hand. Vieira appears to be slowing, and Curtis acknowledges this with a brutal left to the sternum. Two punches on the nose get Vieira’s attention, as it is bloodied and damaged. Curtis aims his left to the liver again, and he follows it with a right over the top. Curtis totally shrugs off three punches so that he can strike, but the round ends before he can release.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Curtis

Round 3
The gloves get touched, and Curtis follows it immediately with a left hand. Curtis measures another, and he kicks out and lands on the elbow. Curtis is aggressive, throwing hands and backing Vieira up. The volume from Vieira is diminished while Curtis keeps swinging at him. Vieira shoots in for a desperation takedown, and Curtis shuts him down without batting an eye and sticks his hand in Vieira’s face. The Brazilian lunges in for a low takedown, and Curtis stuffs him and scores two punches over the top. Vieira reaches out with a one-two, and he jabs to disrupt Curtis. “Action Man” keeps the action going as he works the body, and he effortlessly stuffs a takedown and hops away to celebrate his perfect takedown defense. Vieira leans all the way in for another, and Curtis will not accept it. Vieira unleashes three powerful blows, and Curtis eats them all and gives a few back for good measure. Curtis aims punches to the head and body as Vieira tries to answer him back, but the punches continue to find the bloodied nose of Vieira. Curtis sees a telegraphed takedown coming, and after stopping it, he stuffs a second one. The American might get stung from a right hand, as his hands are low, but he uses the angle to blast Vieira in the ribs. Vieira comes up short on his umpteenth takedown, and his shots are labored and Curtis is able to make him pay with body shots. Curtis busts up the nose with a left hook, and Vieira slips it and stuffs a takedown. Vieira struggles to get back to his feet, but he tries another and fails. Vieira spams them to no avail, with Curtis clearly having done his homework and never once letting himself hit the mat thanks to Vieira’s effort. The final horn sounds as Vieira falls to his back, frustrated that his grappling was completely nullified after 15 minutes of exhausting action.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis (29-28 Curtis)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Curtis (29-28 Curtis)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Curtis (29-28 Curtis)

The Official Result
Chris Curtis def. Rodolfo Vieira via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Angelo picks Chris Curtis despite being 0-2 on his previous Curtis picks. He notes Curtis has proven takedown defense against Brendan Allen and Phil Hawes, and has legitimate power. He expects Curtis to get taken down but work back to his feet and land strikes. He has a moneyline bet on Curtis.

moneyline bet on Chris Curtis
"i am on the chris curtis side this time around he's proven that he has legit power he's proven that he can defend takedowns in the ufc"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Big Brady picks Rodolfo Vieira to win by first-round submission. He is confident that Vieira will take Curtis down early, citing Curtis's poor takedown defense and ground game from outside UFC footage (giving up back, making mistakes). He notes Vieira's elite BJJ and wrestling (5.77 takedowns per 15 minutes). He acknowledges Curtis's path to victory if he survives the first round (KO a tired Vieira), but doubts Curtis can survive. He calls it a finish-heavy fight.

Vieira wins by submission in round 1; fight doesn't go to decision
"i'm gonna take rodolfo vieira here for the upset i'm gonna take rodolfo vera to win by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody is a big fan of Curtis, praising his takedown defense, durability, and ability to build steam as the fight goes. He thinks Vieira's striking is poor and he tires, so Curtis will finish him in the second or third round. He also likes Curtis by TKO and mentions Curtis round 3 at +1200.

Curtis by TKO; Curtis round 3 +1200
"i got action man finishing this thing part way through the second or early into the third"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that the market is moving towards a pick'em but he still likes Curtis. He mentions Curtis round 3 as a possible prop.

Curtis round 3 +1000 at DraftKings
"chris curtis round three we'll see if i get there but i see like ten to one at draftkings sportsbook"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

The host picks Chris Curtis, noting he has been picking against him but now believes. He cites Curtis's wins over Brendan Allen and Phil Hawes, and his reach advantage. He criticizes Vieira's performance against Dustin Stoltzfus, where he was outlanded and couldn't keep him down. He predicts a second-round KO for Curtis.

second round KO prediction
"i'm siding with chris curtis"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 1:54 · UFC on ESPN: Makhachev vs. Moises · Jul 17, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rodolfo Vieira 0 49 of 88 55% 52 of 93 3 of 4 75% 1 0 2:10
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 67 of 192 34% 83 of 209 0 of 3 0% 0 1 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rodolfo Vieira 0 23 of 46 50% 23 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 34 of 94 36% 37 of 97 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Rodolfo Vieira 0 25 of 41 60% 26 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:45
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 29 of 87 33% 33 of 92 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Rodolfo Vieira 0 1 of 1 100% 3 of 4 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:25
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 4 of 11 36% 13 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rodolfo Vieira 49 of 88 55% 42 of 81 2 of 2 5 of 5 49 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 67 of 192 34% 53 of 170 11 of 18 3 of 4 64 of 187 2 of 3 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rodolfo Vieira 23 of 46 50% 20 of 43 1 of 1 2 of 2 23 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 34 of 94 36% 26 of 79 6 of 12 2 of 3 34 of 93 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Rodolfo Vieira 25 of 41 60% 21 of 37 1 of 1 3 of 3 25 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 29 of 87 33% 23 of 80 5 of 6 1 of 1 27 of 85 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Rodolfo Vieira 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 4 of 11 36% 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Rodolfo Vieira

Round 1
It’s grappler versus grappler in this middleweight fight next, as Vieira (7-1, 2-1 UFC) tries to rebound from the first loss of his MMA career and his first submission defeat in a decade against crafty threat Stoltzfus (13-2, 0-1 UFC). Referee Herb Dean will be minding his P’s and Q’s for this one that may not last that long, and although Vieira offers a glove touch, Stoltzfus is not having it and would prefer to get on with the scheduled violence. Vieira takes the center of the cage and sticks out his left hand a few times, but follows one with a right hand that catches Stoltzfus right on the chin. Stoltzfus returns fire with a leg kick and a straight left hand, and Vieira blocks the strike that comes after. The Brazilian dings his man with a left hand right on the nose, and he has his guard up in time as his foe responds with a trio of strikes. Both land right hands at the same time, and it is Stoltzfus who pushes forward after with a few jabs. Vieira sneaks in a right hand as he dodges and moves, and he digs the thigh of his opponent with a heavy kick. Stoltzfus is content to jab out with several punches, and the powerful strikes from Vieira have busted the nose of the American. A left hand makes Stoltzfus spin around, but Stoltzfus comes back with a vengeance as he charges with a flurry of punches. Vieira largely stays out of the way and elusive as he circles out, but Stoltzfus splits the guard with a left hand. Stoltzfus fires off a spinning kick to the thigh as if he were Andy Hug, and Vieira absorbs a few jabs that have his right eye swelling up quickly. Stoltzfus strides forward with a combination, and he punctuates it with a solid kick. Vieira fires back, only to absorb an overhand right at the end of a few punches. Vieira snaps out a jab to the damaged nose of his opponent, and Stoltzfus may be bloodied from them but he is right there to throw back. They both fire off nasty strikes in close proximity, and Vieira goes back to the jab that is starting to cause a bend in Stoltzfus’ nose. Stoltzfus looks to pressure him, but Vieira stays on his bike and circles away. Stoltzfus follows him and kicks him in the face with a spinning back kick, and Vieira looks surprised but not hurt. Both men have done some damage with jabs, and Stoltzfus sprints ahead with a flying knee that knocks Vieira off-balance as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira

Round 2
This round, when Vieira offers a glove touch, Stoltzfus obliges him. Vieira takes the center of the cage, and he runs ahead to take the fight down. With a powerful force, he scoops Stoltzfus off the ground and slams him down hard. Stoltzfus scoots his way to the fence and stands up, and he defends his back as Vieira tries to take it. Stoltzfus breaks the grip and pushes the Brazilian off of him, where they begin to jab at one another again. The American lands at the end of a one-two, and Vieira shakes it off and times a leg kick as Stoltzfus advances. Stoltzfus goes after a similar combination, and this time, Vieira sees it and stops it. Stoltzfus tries to crowd him with a right hand in close range, and Vieira rolls with it and swats away a follow-up body kick. Vieira clubs Stoltzfus with a right hand on the way in, and he surprises Stoltzfus with a left hand. The jabs from Vieira have Stoltzfus guessing and stuck when he tries to step in, and when Stoltzfus looks to power through it, Vieira chops down his lead leg. The jab continues to find its home until Stoltzfus shoots low for a takedown, and Vieira laughs it off and gets back to his piston-like jab. Blood begins to trickle and then stream out of Stoltzfus’ nose as the jab continues to find its home again and again, and Vieira is able to easily get out of the way when Stoltzfus charges him a few times. “The Black Belt Hunter” hunts Stoltzfus with a left hook as Stoltzfus comes forward, and he clips Stoltzfus with a right hand. Vieira eats a cracking right hand that sends him staggering back, and Stoltzfus tries to do more damage with a knee but the Brazilian is able to get his bearings and retreat in time. Vieira’s jab is in full display, busting open the cheek of his foe as he mixes up punches with leg kicks. Stoltzfus stings Vieira with a right hand, and he shoots low for a takedown but is stood right up. Vieira presses his foe into the fencing until the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira

Round 3
The gloves are touched to begin the final frame, and both men are ready to throw hands. Stoltzfus reaches him with a right hand, and right as Vieira is about to counter, he ducks down and charges in to grab Stoltzfus and take him down. The successful takedown allows Vieira to land in half guard, and Stoltzfus defends with a kimura to nearly sweep him. Stoltzfus lifts his whole body with one arm, and as he climbs back to his feet, Vieira is there to target a double. Stoltzfus defends with a guillotine choke, and Vieira easily pulls his neck out.
The American muscles his way to his feet again, and like a coiled snake striking, Vieira leaps in the air and snags standing back control. “The Black Belt Hunter” snatches up the neck in an instant, and he wrenches it with all of his might as Stoltzfus is in grave danger. Stoltzfus topples over to the ground from this position, and he surrenders in a panic as soon as the middleweights hit the floor.
This was a statement performance for the Brazilian, who bounced back from a hard loss to prove he can manage his energy and secure a late finish over a man that had never before been stopped.

The Official Result
Rodolfo Vieira def. Dustin Stoltzfus R3 1:54 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Cody sees Rodolfo Vieira as a prop fighter, not a moneyline play. He believes Vieira will either submit Stoltzfus early or fade badly. He has placed bets on Vieira by submission in round one and by submission in any round, citing Vieira's world-class jiu-jitsu and explosive takedowns. He warns against the moneyline due to Vieira's questionable cardio and striking.

Vieira by sub round one (+225), Vieira by sub (-105)
"I got vieira by sub round one and i've got vieira by sub uh flac because maybe gets him in the second round or something like that."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jul 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul is not interested in betting this fight due to the poor moneyline value. He highlights Vieira's one-dimensional style, poor cardio, and the fact that Stoltzfus has never been submitted. He thinks Vieira is a bust and that Stoltzfus could win if Vieira gasses, but he does not make a pick.

"It's another fight I just don't really care to bet the line's not good."
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Big Brady picks Rodolfo Vieira to win by submission. He believes Vieira is levels above Hernandez in grappling, as he is called the 'black belt hunter.' He notes that Hernandez's path to victory is a knockout, but Hernandez is not a knockout artist. He expects Vieira to get a takedown and finish the fight quickly.

Vieira by submission
"Give me a vr here i mean vera by submission it's really hard to see a path to victory for hernandez"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 12, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Daniel Levi confidently picks Rodolfo Vieira by first-round submission. He describes Vieira's grappling as 100/100 and his striking as 30/100, but believes one takedown will end the fight. He notes that Hernandez has been hurt to the body and finished before, and that Vieira's BJJ is elite. He expects Vieira to take Hernandez down, take his back, and submit him quickly.

Vieira by first-round submission; mentions Vieira's grappling stats analogy
"i'm going to faviera first round submission"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Feb 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

The host reluctantly sides with Vieira, acknowledging his high-level jiu-jitsu and physical strength, but believes the line is too wide. He notes that Hernandez is a live dog with durability and pressure, and that Vieira has shown striking vulnerabilities. He prefers the under 1.5 rounds or 'fight doesn't go to decision' props over betting Vieira straight.

under 1.5 rounds at -150; fight doesn't go to decision at -515
"i don't feel like you should be just a foregone conclusion in just writing off anthony hernandez here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

The Guru picks Rodolfo Vieira, emphasizing his phenomenal grappling and physical strength advantage. He believes Vieira will be too strong for Anthony Hernandez, taking him down easily and finishing with an arm triangle choke in the first round. He notes Vieira's ability to recover and adjust, as seen in his fight against Saparbek Safarov.

Vieira by arm triangle choke in the first round
"rodolfo vieira is a phenom grappler... i feel like he will go out there and get the arm triangle finish in the first round"