vs
-200 +160
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns · Feb 13, 2021 · Middleweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns Next Fight
Age 34
Height 5' 9"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 37
Height 5' 11"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Kelvin Gastelum
3.67 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
3.53 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
1.01 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
60.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Ian Heinisch
3.25 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
2.98 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
1.02 TD Avg
17.0% TD Acc.
59.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Kelvin Gastelum
Moneyline
BetWay -200
KO/TKO
BetWay +450
Submission
BetWay +800
Decision
BetWay -105
Ian Heinisch
Moneyline
BetWay +160
KO/TKO
BetWay +600
Submission
BetWay +1000
Decision
BetWay +350
Kelvin Gastelum - Fight History
LOSS vs Vicente Luque
Submission R1 4:08 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 0 9 of 20 45% 12 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:16
Vicente Luque 1 12 of 28 42% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 9 of 20 45% 12 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:16
Vicente Luque 1 12 of 28 42% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 9 of 20 45% 4 of 14 4 of 5 1 of 1 8 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 1
Vicente Luque 12 of 28 42% 6 of 19 1 of 1 5 of 8 8 of 21 0 of 0 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 9 of 20 45% 4 of 14 4 of 5 1 of 1 8 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 1
Vicente Luque 12 of 28 42% 6 of 19 1 of 1 5 of 8 8 of 21 0 of 0 4 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

Angelo picks Kelvin Gastelum despite his unreliability, citing his skills, granite chin, and wrestling advantage. He believes Vicente Luque has never been the same since the brain bleed and is fighting up a weight class. He acknowledges Gastelum's poor work ethic but thinks he should win, calling the odds appropriate.

"I have to pick Kelvin here. If you refuse to bet on him, I get it. No pressure. He should win, and honestly, I think these odds are actually pretty appropriate."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

Big Brady believes Vicente Luque is past his prime after a brain injury and has shown fear of getting hit, pulling guard and covering up in recent fights. He thinks Gastelum will land big shots and TKO Luque, predicting a second-round knockout. He calls it his hot take of the week.

second round knockout
"My hot take of the week is Kelvin Gastelum gets his first knockout since 2017 against Vicente Luque... I think he knocks out Vicente Luque in the second round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

Cody also picks Gastelum, citing Luque's loss of speed and durability. He thinks Gastelum's left hand and toughness will be too much for the fading Luque.

"I think Gaston wins it... either he's going to get knocked out and separated from consciousness or just be one punch behind the punch stats every round and end up losing a tight decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

Connor picks Gastelum because Luque is moving up to middleweight and has lost speed, while Gastelum's game is built for the division. He notes that Gastelum's durability and power in the pocket will be too much for a slower Luque, and that Luque's style doesn't translate well to middleweight. He acknowledges both are past their prime but trusts Gastelum's natural advantages.

"We got to pick Gasolim."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

Daniel Vreeland picks Kelvin Gastelum, citing Luque's decline after a brain bleed and brutal knockouts. He believes Gastelum's durability and power will be too much for Luque, who may not have the confidence or chin to engage in a war. He also notes that the fight is at middleweight, which benefits Gastelum.

"I got Kelvin as well. One last thing here is this fight's at 185 and not 170. So, Luque I think that benefits Kelvin significantly here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

Daniel thinks Luque's chin and confidence are gone after taking too much damage, while Gastelum is still durable. He predicts Gastelum will knock out Luque.

"I'm going to pick Kelvin Gastlam to come out here and knock out Vasante Luca."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

James picks Gastelum confidently, believing Luque is more shot and that Gastelum's durability and boxing will prevail. He predicts a knockout, noting Luque's recent struggles.

"I've got Kelvin Gasselum here quite confidently. Honestly, I think he's going to win this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

Gastelum's power and durability should be too much for Luque, who has been declining and getting finished. Luque's wars have caught up to him, and he struggles with pressure. Gastelum's boxing and knockout power can put Luque away. However, Gastelum's weight cut is a concern; if he makes weight, he should win by knockout. The line is steep but justified.

Gastelum wins by knockout
"I think we'll see Gastam eventually land those big shots. ... I think he wins by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

Paul picks Gastelum, trusting his chin and durability. He thinks Luque has slowed down and taken too much damage, while Gastelum can still take a punch and outwork him.

"I still trust Kelvin Gastelum. It's like if they get into a firefight to be able to take that punch... Kelvin's one of the guys that are uh in my parlay arsenal this week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum over Vicente Luque. He believes Luque's best days are behind him and that Gastelum is hard to finish, with good submission defense against Luque's D'Arce choke. He thinks Gastelum's springy step, one-two down the pipe, and low kick will cause visible damage, predicting a 29-28 decision win.

"I'm going to go with Kelvin over Vicente Luque."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

Zane picks Gastelum, agreeing that Luque at middleweight doesn't track. He notes that Gastelum's game is a middleweight game and that Luque has lost speed and reaction time. He expects Gastelum to win by being the more natural middleweight and having the power advantage in the pocket.

"I'm not going to pick Vicente Luque up at middle weight."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 1 57 of 117 48% 58 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 64 of 146 43% 69 of 151 1 of 6 16% 0 1 2:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 14 of 25 56% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 24 of 49 48% 25 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:47
2 Kelvin Gastelum 1 23 of 43 53% 23 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 20 of 45 44% 24 of 49 0 of 3 0% 0 1 1:13
3 Kelvin Gastelum 0 20 of 49 40% 20 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 20 of 52 38% 20 of 52 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 57 of 117 48% 30 of 81 16 of 24 11 of 12 56 of 116 1 of 1 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 64 of 146 43% 25 of 93 25 of 34 14 of 19 55 of 134 4 of 5 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 14 of 25 56% 4 of 14 6 of 7 4 of 4 14 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 24 of 49 48% 3 of 23 13 of 17 8 of 9 20 of 44 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Kelvin Gastelum 23 of 43 53% 14 of 30 6 of 9 3 of 4 23 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 20 of 45 44% 12 of 35 4 of 5 4 of 5 15 of 38 0 of 0 5 of 7
3 Kelvin Gastelum 20 of 49 40% 12 of 37 4 of 8 4 of 4 19 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 20 of 52 38% 10 of 35 8 of 12 2 of 5 20 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

Angelo picks Kelvin Gastelum, calling him a great wrestler and striker with an unbelievable chin, but wasted talent due to poor work ethic. He says this is the easiest matchup Kelvin has had in five years, and he should win the striking exchanges and eat whatever comes back. He notes concern about Kelvin's takedown defense after the Sean Brady fight, but thinks he should be a better wrestler than Stoltzfus. He says the line should be wider but isn't because people can't trust Kelvin.

The line is honestly should be wider and it just isn't because people can't trust him.
"I do think that Kelvin is going to win here, so he's going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

Big Brady picks Gastelum as the better striker who should keep the fight standing. He notes Stoltzfus is not on Gastelum's level and that a loss would be Gastelum's worst. He predicts a decision win but says he won't bet on it.

Decision win; will not bet
"Gastelum by decision for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

Connor picks Gastelum hesitantly, noting that Stoltzfus is glacially slow and has been knocked out multiple times. However, he warns that Gastelum could have a Punahele Soriano-like performance where he fails to impose himself and gets outworked. Connor believes Gastelum's athleticism and scrambling will be key, but he is not confident.

"I'm taking Gastelum, but I can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

Despite Gastelum's inconsistency, the host sees this as a fight he should win. He expects Gastelum to showcase his takedown defense and pressure with power striking, leading to a knockout in the second or third round.

win by knockout in second or third round
"Look for him to uh really do a good job with his takedown defense and really put the pressure on with the power striking. And I think that will eventually lead to a Calvin Gassam knockout either in the second …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum, believing he has a clear advantage in technical ability and power. He notes Stoltzfus has been knocked out multiple times and lacks the tools to drop or ragdoll Gastelum. He predicts a TKO win in the middle of the fight, possibly late first or second round, as Gastelum pressures and finishes a tiring Stoltzfus.

TKO win late first or second round
"Kelvin Gastelum getting this one done. ... This is a free TKO win late in the first round, in the second round at some point."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

Zane picks Gastelum hesitantly, acknowledging that Stoltzfus could replicate his win over Punahele Soriano by pressuring and outworking Gastelum. He notes that Gastelum is still athletic and durable but has shown a tendency to not consider bad positions. Zane believes Gastelum's scrambling ability and power will be enough, but he can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight.

"I suppose I'm still gonna pick Kelvin Gastelum here. But I can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight."
LOSS vs Joe Pyfer
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 0 33 of 99 33% 34 of 100 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Joe Pyfer 2 57 of 114 50% 58 of 115 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 8 of 20 40% 8 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 2 21 of 39 53% 22 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
2 Kelvin Gastelum 0 11 of 50 22% 11 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 0 17 of 40 42% 17 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Kelvin Gastelum 0 14 of 29 48% 15 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Joe Pyfer 0 19 of 35 54% 19 of 35 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 33 of 99 33% 13 of 69 11 of 17 9 of 13 32 of 98 1 of 1 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 57 of 114 50% 44 of 99 12 of 14 1 of 1 51 of 104 3 of 3 3 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 8 of 20 40% 3 of 14 2 of 3 3 of 3 8 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 21 of 39 53% 16 of 33 5 of 6 0 of 0 17 of 31 1 of 1 3 of 7
2 Kelvin Gastelum 11 of 50 22% 2 of 34 6 of 10 3 of 6 11 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 17 of 40 42% 12 of 35 4 of 4 1 of 1 17 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Kelvin Gastelum 14 of 29 48% 8 of 21 3 of 4 3 of 4 13 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 19 of 35 54% 16 of 31 3 of 4 0 of 0 17 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Joe Pyfer

Angelo picks Joe Pyfer because Kelvin Gastelum is unreliable with poor work ethic and weight issues. He notes Kelvin has a granite chin and power, but Joe is a powerful striker with slick BJJ. He warns Joe not to get frustrated if the knockout doesn't come quickly. He thinks the 4-to-1 odds are fair but not a cakewalk.

"Joe Piper should win this fight. As long as Joe is not expecting a quick knockout and then getting frustrated when he doesn't get it, Joe should win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Joe Pyfer

Big Brady likes Joe Pyfer more now that the fight is at sea level instead of Mexico City. He believes Pyfer can win by any method: knockout, submission, or decision. He notes Pyfer's size, power, and black belt in jiu-jitsu, and that Gastelum has been submitted before. He thinks a decision is most likely due to Gastelum's durability, but sees Pyfer as the better fighter overall.

Pyfer by decision most likely
"I like Piper here quite a bit. Kelvin Gastlam is going to be very undersized."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Joe Pyfer

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Pyfer. He emphasizes that Gastelum's best wins are against smaller or older opponents, and Pyfer's size and power pose a serious threat. Connor notes that Gastelum's defensive flaws and reliance on his chin make him vulnerable, especially at middleweight where he is not as big.

Odds: Pyfer -383, Gastelum +324. Connor thinks the line is reasonable.
"I think in that context, you really have to pick Pfeiffer here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

Gastelum can deal with Pyfer's power and then get to his own striking game, blitzing the pocket and landing big shots, possibly mixing in takedowns. His durability, cardio, and strength of schedule will allow him to get the victory over the younger Pyfer.

"I like me some Gastam in this spot as I think he can deal with the big power that Piper brings to the table and then from there he can get to his own striking game where he does a …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Joe Pyfer

The MMA Guru picks Joe Pyfer by submission in the first round. He notes Pyfer's muscle advantage and underrated grappling, citing his training with Sean Brady and his submission wins. He believes Pyfer will land big shots early, then take Gastelum down and submit him with an arm triangle. He mentions Gastelum's granite chin but thinks Pyfer can finish him.

Finish prediction: first round submission (arm triangle). Also mentioned in PrizePicks: Pyfer lands under 49.5 significant strikes.
"I'm going to take Joe Pyer by submission in the first round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Joe Pyfer

Zane picks Joe Pyfer, noting that Gastelum is inconsistent and relies on his chin, which may be fading. He points out that Pyfer is bigger, hits harder, and has a cleaner striking game. Zane references the Hermanson fight where Pyfer won the first two rounds before fading, and believes in a three-round fight Pyfer's early power will carry him.

Odds: Pyfer -383, Gastelum +324. Zane thinks the line is too wide but still picks Pyfer.
"I'm going to take the bigger, harder, cleaner puncture."
CANCEL vs Joe Pyfer
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

James picks Kelvin Gastelum as a significant underdog, arguing that Joe Pyfer has not proven himself against top competition and that his wins are over faded or lower-level fighters. He notes Gastelum has fought much better opposition, has better cardio, and has been training at elevation in Mexico for a month, including in the mountains. James believes Pyfer's gas tank is suspect and that Gastelum can survive early danger and win in later rounds. He sees value at plus 260 odds.

Value on Gastelum at plus 260. Mentions Pyfer's size and early power but questions his cardio and level of competition.
"I think there's value on Kelvin gum here because it's still a show me spot for Joe Piper he has to show me that he's worthy of a minus 320 price tag."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Jun 22, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 0 112 of 238 47% 123 of 250 4 of 4 100% 0 0 2:47
Daniel Rodriguez 0 127 of 265 47% 132 of 273 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 44 of 93 47% 45 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Daniel Rodriguez 0 46 of 91 50% 46 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kelvin Gastelum 0 37 of 86 43% 39 of 88 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:25
Daniel Rodriguez 0 53 of 113 46% 53 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Kelvin Gastelum 0 31 of 59 52% 39 of 68 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:17
Daniel Rodriguez 0 28 of 61 45% 33 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 112 of 238 47% 77 of 193 14 of 20 21 of 25 105 of 226 0 of 0 7 of 12
Daniel Rodriguez 127 of 265 47% 82 of 214 36 of 41 9 of 10 127 of 265 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 44 of 93 47% 27 of 70 6 of 10 11 of 13 44 of 93 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Rodriguez 46 of 91 50% 25 of 67 15 of 17 6 of 7 46 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Kelvin Gastelum 37 of 86 43% 27 of 72 4 of 6 6 of 8 37 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Rodriguez 53 of 113 46% 38 of 97 13 of 14 2 of 2 53 of 113 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Kelvin Gastelum 31 of 59 52% 23 of 51 4 of 4 4 of 4 24 of 47 0 of 0 7 of 12
Daniel Rodriguez 28 of 61 45% 19 of 50 8 of 10 1 of 1 28 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

Angelo picks Kelvin but is hesitant, calling him a waste of talent. He acknowledges Kelvin's raw talent, chin, and wrestling, but notes he is undedicated and has missed weight. He points to Kelvin's last fight where he was outwrestled by Sean Brady despite being a D1 wrestler. He thinks Kelvin should win but cannot trust him, especially at -260. He will not bet on Kelvin.

No bet; odds too high for an unreliable fighter
"Kelvin gastam is a giant waste of talent but Talent is the key word he is very good... I'm still going to lean Kelvin I'm going to trust him but I'm not spending you can't spend money on this guy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

Big Brady picks Kelvin Gastelum confidently, believing Daniel Rodriguez is on the decline due to fight miles and prison fights. He notes Gastelum's wrestling as a potential path and expects a decision win. Despite the steep -250 line, Brady thinks it makes sense if Rodriguez is truly fading.

"give me Kelvin gastam by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

Cody picks Gastelum, emphasizing his southpaw advantage and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes Rodriguez's volume striking but believes Gastelum's power and pressure will be decisive, especially given Rodriguez's recent layoff and age. He expects a decision win.

"gum is going to win he is going to likely win a decision"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Daniel Rodriguez

Daniel Vreeland picks Daniel Rodriguez as a confident underdog. He notes Gastelum's tendency to be in close fights and his lack of discipline (weight issues, love for tacos). He believes Rodriguez has the size, reach, and volume to push a pace and win a decision. He also mentions Gastelum's wrestling advantage but doubts he will use it.

"I'm gonna go with the plus 200 dog here I'm gonna go with D Rod to to win a probably a decision against uh Kelvin Gaston"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

Jacob picks Kelvin but is not confident, calling the -250/-260 odds crazy. He thinks Kelvin should be around -125 to -130. He notes Kelvin's last fight showed he forgot how to wrestle, and he might just stand and trade with Rodriguez, which could be competitive. He might have some action on Rodriguez as a dog. He believes Kelvin is the pick but not a betting favorite at those odds.

Might bet Rodriguez as a dog
"minus 250 minus 260 for a guy like Kelvin gastam at this point it's like what are we doing... I believe El Kelvin should be the favorite I would price it likeus 125 minus 130 something like that"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Daniel Rodriguez

JP hesitantly picks Rodriguez by decision, citing his reach advantage and ability to keep Gastelum stalled. He worries about Gastelum's speed but lacks trust in Gastelum's recent performances. Brevan disagrees, picking Gastelum by decision, citing Gastelum's wrestling advantage and ability to score takedowns in later rounds. Brevan finds the fight dangerous from a betting perspective but leans Gastelum. JP is less confident and may avoid betting.

Fight goes to decision
"I think I'm going to go with Rodriguez by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

Paul picks Gastelum but with hesitation, hoping he uses his wrestling. He notes that if it becomes a striking match, it could be close. Paul points to Gastelum's low output and Rodriguez's volume as potential issues, but believes Gastelum's overall skills should prevail.

"Gastelum will be the pick but I hope he wrestles"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum over Daniel Rodriguez, citing Gastelum's superior boxing and underrated ground game. He notes that Rodriguez's striking looked lousy against Neil Magny and that his wins are over lower-level opponents. He believes Gastelum can mix in grappling and that Rodriguez's age (37) and layoff are factors. He expresses frustration that Gastelum is a favorite, as he wanted an underdog pick, but still goes with Gastelum by decision or submission.

by decision, maybe a rear naked choke
"I'm going to go Kelvin Gastelum here is he an underdog I wonder if he's an underdog here he might be I'd like it if he was he's a [__] favorite [__] off why is he a big favorite man."
LOSS vs Sean Brady
Submission (kimura) R3 1:43 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean Brady 0 14 of 24 58% 97 of 130 5 of 5 100% 3 0 9:06
Kelvin Gastelum 0 18 of 32 56% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean Brady 0 5 of 10 50% 38 of 53 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:22
Kelvin Gastelum 0 13 of 21 61% 16 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:19
2 Sean Brady 0 8 of 11 72% 51 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:31
Kelvin Gastelum 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Sean Brady 0 1 of 3 33% 8 of 11 1 of 1 100% 3 0 1:13
Kelvin Gastelum 0 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean Brady 14 of 24 58% 8 of 16 1 of 2 5 of 6 7 of 15 1 of 1 6 of 8
Kelvin Gastelum 18 of 32 56% 7 of 19 7 of 8 4 of 5 13 of 23 4 of 5 1 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean Brady 5 of 10 50% 3 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 1
Kelvin Gastelum 13 of 21 61% 6 of 14 5 of 5 2 of 2 8 of 12 4 of 5 1 of 4
2 Sean Brady 8 of 11 72% 5 of 8 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 7
Kelvin Gastelum 2 of 6 33% 0 of 2 0 of 1 2 of 3 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sean Brady 1 of 3 33% 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 3 of 5 60% 1 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sean Brady vs. Kelvin Gastelum
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brady (-130), Gastelum (+110)

Round 1
Welterweights get the call, as Brady (15-1, 5-1 UFC) looks to rebound from his first career loss in a three-round showdown with Gastelum at 170 pounds. Gastelum (18-8, 12-8 UFC) has lost five of his past seven bouts and remains one of the most enigmatic fighters on the roster.
For more on the Kings MMA rep, see “5 Defining Moments: Kelvin Gastelum” in Features
. Montalvo draws the officiating assignment. Gastelum immediately moves to the center of the cage. Brady clinches, works punches and knees to the body and eats a short elbow. He pushes Gastelum to the fence and completes his first takedown. The Daniel Gracie disciple floats to the back, threads his hooks and goes to work on the next. Brady bites down with a body triangle just 90 seconds into the bout. Gastelum scrambles free, takes top position and feeds his opponent punches. Back on the feet, they return to the center of the Octagon. Gastelum sneaks in a right hand. Brady connects with two left hooks and then powers into top position, moving to the back. Gastelum inches toward the fence, but Brady is relentless. Gastelum gets back to his feet, only to get returned to the mat. Brady works his ground-and-pound from behind, then moves to the back in the waning seconds.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady

Round 2
Gastelum steps forward in his southpaw stance, fires a few inside leg kicks and fails to manage distance properly. Brady ducks in for another takedown and sets up in half guard. Starting to look like an awful stylistic matchup for Gastelum. Brady climbs to full mount, then back to half guard. He mounts again. Gastelum surrenders his back to create a scramble but finds no escape. Brady shifts back to mount. Probably only a matter of time before Gastelum breaks. Brady hammers away with elbows, floats to the back and shows no regard for his counterpart’s ground game. Fans grow restless, but Brady is running circles around Gastelum here. Brady works from a kneeling mount, with a seated Gastelum underneath him. With 30 seconds left, this has turned into an absolute rout. Brady drags him back to the canvas as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady

Round 3
Brady works from the center of the cage. Gastelum sneaks in a straight left, but Brady closes the distance yet again and completes another takedown. Fans boo. Brady sets up in half guard, then floats to mount and frames an arm-triangle. Gastelum escapes.
Brady now isolates the right arm and threatens a kimura. He cranks on the shoulder and forces the tap. This one was never competitive
.

The Official Result
Sean Brady def. Kelvin Gastelum—Submission (Kimura) 1:43 R3
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
Sean Brady

Big Brady picks Sean Brady to get back on track, believing his wrestling and control will be the difference. He thinks Brady can take down and control Gastelum for at least two rounds, winning a decision. He acknowledges Gastelum has the edge on the feet but thinks Brady can hold his own. He calls it a close fight and wouldn't bet on either side.

"I'm going to take Shawn Brady to get back on track here I think this is a good fight to do it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sean Brady

Cody picks Brady, citing his superior jiu-jitsu and wrestling. He notes Gastelum's poor takedown defense and offensive wrestling (0 for 11 in last two fights). He thinks Brady can take Gastelum down and control him on the ground. He also questions Gastelum's speed at welterweight and his ability to handle Brady's grappling.

"I think that Shawn Brady's one of the best uh pure Jiu-Jitsu guys in the division now can he tie the other skills together maybe maybe not but yeah I I think that if this fight hits the ground he's …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

Lucrative James leans towards Kelvin Gastelum after rewatching tape. He notes that Sean Brady has shown poor striking defense and cardio issues in fights against Belal Muhammad and Michael Chiesa. Gastelum is a good boxer and could hurt Brady. However, he remains cautious about Gastelum's weight cut and how he will look at 170.

"I'm leaning more on the Kelvin gastam side as the the week goes along"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

Gastelum is moving back to welterweight, where he has looked best, and has shown improved conditioning and training at Fight Ready. He has slick boxing, power, and underrated grappling. Brady is a strong wrestler with a BJJ black belt, but he struggled against Belal Muhammad's range and volume. Gastelum's speed and power on the feet, plus his ability to scramble, should give him the edge. A decision win is predicted, with a potential late finish.

decision win predicted
"I like gastam here as the dog like I think that he is far more skilled all around than Brady"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

Paul is willing to side with Gastelum at welterweight, citing his striking advantage and improved physique. He will wait for weigh-ins to ensure Gastelum makes weight and looks healthy. He thinks Gastelum has a massive striking advantage and that this is a good spot to jump back on the Gastelum train.

"I'm willing to side with Gastelum at 170 I'm going to wait until the weigh-ins to ensure that like you know that he makes it and doesn't look like Skeletor"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum, criticizing Sean Brady's performance against Belal Muhammad where he shut down after being clipped. He believes Gastelum's boxing, durability, and finishing ability are superior on the feet. He predicts Gastelum wins by TKO in the second or third round.

TKO in second or third round
"I'm gonna go with Kelvin Gastelum over Shawn Brady... I think if this is on the feet I just like the boxing durability toughness and finishing ability of Kelvin Gastelum."
WIN vs Chris Curtis
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 0 70 of 201 34% 80 of 216 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Chris Curtis 0 83 of 188 44% 88 of 195 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 13 of 48 27% 13 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 30 of 64 46% 30 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kelvin Gastelum 0 20 of 65 30% 26 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 23 of 56 41% 27 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:55
3 Kelvin Gastelum 0 37 of 88 42% 41 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Chris Curtis 0 30 of 68 44% 31 of 69 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 70 of 201 34% 44 of 164 21 of 30 5 of 7 63 of 193 7 of 8 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 83 of 188 44% 63 of 161 5 of 8 15 of 19 76 of 172 3 of 6 4 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 13 of 48 27% 8 of 40 1 of 2 4 of 6 13 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 30 of 64 46% 20 of 51 0 of 0 10 of 13 30 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Kelvin Gastelum 20 of 65 30% 11 of 51 9 of 14 0 of 0 18 of 62 2 of 3 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 23 of 56 41% 20 of 51 1 of 2 2 of 3 19 of 44 0 of 2 4 of 10
3 Kelvin Gastelum 37 of 88 42% 25 of 73 11 of 14 1 of 1 32 of 83 5 of 5 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 30 of 68 44% 23 of 59 4 of 6 3 of 3 27 of 64 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chris Curtis

Angelo picks Chris Curtis and has a moneyline bet on him. He notes that Kelvin Gastelum is a waste of talent with poor work ethic, while Chris Curtis is a clean boxer with solid takedown defense and power. He believes Curtis will win the striking exchanges and defend takedowns. He is confident because Gastelum hasn't shown his best day in years.

moneyline bet
"Chris Curtis is going to be the pick I do have a money line bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
Chris Curtis

Big Brady picks Chris Curtis as the underdog, expecting a close decision. He notes both fighters are durable and have power, but he trusts Curtis's momentum over Gastelum's recent skid. He predicts a split decision and mentions the line has flipped to Gastelum as favorite, making Curtis the dog. He is not confident due to potential judging issues.

"I like I like Curtis to win ... I'll take Chris Curtis to win by like a split uh decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chris Curtis

Cody agrees with Paul on Curtis. He highlights Curtis' takedown defense and notes that Gastelum's wrestling hasn't been effective recently. Cody likes Curtis by decision at +240 as his favorite bet on the card. He points out that Curtis doesn't have much jiu-jitsu, so a submission is unlikely, but a decision is probable. Cody also mentions Gastelum's staph infection and dental issues as potential factors.

Curtis by decision at +240; under 0.5 takedowns for Gastelum on PrizePicks
"Chris Curtis by decision I'll tell you that much"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chris Curtis

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Chris Curtis. He emphasizes that Curtis is a better counter puncher and that Gastelum is too hittable. Connor also mentions that Curtis has a better chance of landing clean shots that judges will notice, even if they don't hurt Gastelum.

"Yeah, same."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lock pick date unknown
Chris Curtis

Jacob is locked and loaded on Chris Curtis, calling him a lock. He emphasizes that everyone who engages with Curtis gets knocked out because of his ability to read rhythm and find counter shots. He notes that Gastelum leaves himself open with low hands and gets dropped often. He believes Curtis can knock him out or win a decision.

"I'm locked and loaded on Chris Curtis"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

Gastelum has been on a tough skid but is only 31 and now training with Fight Ready, known for great game plans. He has underrated wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu, and his durability should hold up against Curtis's power. Curtis is experienced but was out-gamed by Jack Hermansson's range. I think Gastelum's diversity and Fight Ready's plan lead to a decision win, though ring rust is a concern.

"I think this is probably the most favorable matchup that Calvin gaslim has had during this entire slump maybe with the exception of the Ian heinish fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chris Curtis

Paul picks Curtis, citing his superior volume, cardio, and reach advantage. He notes Curtis has excellent takedown defense and has fought bigger middleweights. Paul criticizes Gastelum's recent low output and believes Curtis will outwork him. He expects a 15-minute standup fight and likes Curtis by decision at plus money. Paul also mentions Curtis' experience sparring with Sean Strickland and his ability to find openings.

Curtis by decision at +240; over 2.5 rounds at -220; under 0.5 takedowns for Gastelum on PrizePicks
"sign me up for Action Man"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chris Curtis

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis to finish Kelvin Gastelum in round three via body shot. He expects a war where both land big shots, but Curtis will dig to the body consistently, wearing Gastelum down. He notes Gastelum's poor shape and good chin, predicting that body shots will be the key. He describes a sequence where Gastelum slows down and Curtis finishes him against the cage.

round three finish, body shot
"I'm gonna say Curtis finishes him in round three"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chris Curtis

Zane picks Chris Curtis because he believes Curtis will land the better, more memorable shots. He notes that Curtis is an accurate and powerful counter puncher, while Gastelum remains hittable with his chin up. Zane also points out that Curtis has been getting decisions lately and that Gastelum's prime started early and he has taken a lot of damage.

"I'm going to pick Chris Curtis because I think he's going to land the better shots."
LOSS vs Jared Cannonier
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · Aug 21, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Cannonier 1 81 of 207 39% 91 of 218 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Kelvin Gastelum 0 89 of 246 36% 89 of 246 0 of 8 0% 0 0 2:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Cannonier 0 19 of 45 42% 19 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kelvin Gastelum 0 22 of 57 38% 22 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Jared Cannonier 0 17 of 43 39% 17 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kelvin Gastelum 0 24 of 59 40% 24 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Jared Cannonier 1 17 of 40 42% 17 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Kelvin Gastelum 0 15 of 54 27% 15 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:19
4 Jared Cannonier 0 15 of 45 33% 19 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kelvin Gastelum 0 16 of 41 39% 16 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:45
5 Jared Cannonier 0 13 of 34 38% 19 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kelvin Gastelum 0 12 of 35 34% 12 of 35 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Cannonier 81 of 207 39% 51 of 162 20 of 31 10 of 14 79 of 205 2 of 2 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 89 of 246 36% 48 of 187 22 of 36 19 of 23 88 of 243 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Cannonier 19 of 45 42% 11 of 26 5 of 13 3 of 6 19 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 22 of 57 38% 11 of 39 4 of 11 7 of 7 22 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jared Cannonier 17 of 43 39% 10 of 35 2 of 3 5 of 5 17 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 24 of 59 40% 15 of 47 4 of 7 5 of 5 23 of 57 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Jared Cannonier 17 of 40 42% 12 of 33 5 of 6 0 of 1 16 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 15 of 54 27% 9 of 45 5 of 8 1 of 1 15 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Jared Cannonier 15 of 45 33% 9 of 38 6 of 7 0 of 0 15 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 16 of 41 39% 6 of 28 7 of 8 3 of 5 16 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jared Cannonier 13 of 34 38% 9 of 30 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 12 of 35 34% 7 of 28 2 of 2 3 of 5 12 of 34 0 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jared Cannonier

Big Brady picks Jared Cannonier, citing his reach advantage, power, and striking accuracy. He notes Cannonier is in his prime at 37, while Gastelum seems to be declining. He believes Cannonier's leg kicks and size will be key, and he predicts a third-round knockout, giving Gastelum his first KO loss.

third round knockout
"i'll take him here i think the six inches of reach is going to be huge"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

Cody picks Gastelum as a dog, citing his cardio, five-round experience, and wrestling advantage. He notes Cannonier's low volume, hesitancy, and questionable cardio in longer fights, and points out Gastelum has never been knocked out. He suggests betting live after Gastelum loses early rounds.

Bet live after Gastelum loses first round or two; Gastelum has never been knocked out
"i think kelvin gaslin could hustle him up a plus 130 i'm going to take the dog shot here it's a dog or pass main event for me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

Gastelum is the better all-around fighter with five-round experience and cardio advantage. Cannonier has knockout power but has never been stopped, and his cardio is unproven in later rounds. I think Gastelum weathers the early storm and takes over in rounds 3-5, winning by decision or late finish.

Gastelum by decision (+225); live bet on Gastelum after round 1 or 2
"i'm gonna be taking calvin gaslum and i'm going to be taking gas limits uh via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Gastelum at plus money. He emphasizes Gastelum's durability (never knocked out) and Cannonier's potential gas tank issues in later rounds. He also mentions the possibility of betting Gastelum live if he loses early rounds.

Bet live if Gastelum loses early rounds; Gastelum has never been knocked out
"gun to my head i'm betting kelvin gastle in my plus 130"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jared Cannonier

The MMA Guru picks Jared Cannonier to win by TKO, focusing on leg kicks. He notes Cannonier's vicious leg kicks (as seen against Whittaker and Silva) and Gastelum's heavy lead leg and lack of leg support. He predicts Cannonier will chop down Gastelum's legs, then catch him with a straight right as Gastelum lunges. He also mentions Gastelum's quick turnaround and accumulated damage.

TKO via leg kicks and straight right
"i'm gonna go with jared cannon here by tko leg kicks i think will chop down kelvin gastelum"
Ian Heinisch - Fight History
TKO (punches) R2 3:09 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · Jul 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nassourdine Imavov 0 39 of 96 40% 46 of 103 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:11
Ian Heinisch 0 24 of 52 46% 25 of 53 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nassourdine Imavov 0 16 of 35 45% 23 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
Ian Heinisch 0 14 of 25 56% 15 of 26 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:03
2 Nassourdine Imavov 0 23 of 61 37% 23 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
Ian Heinisch 0 10 of 27 37% 10 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nassourdine Imavov 39 of 96 40% 32 of 82 7 of 14 0 of 0 29 of 72 6 of 6 4 of 18
Ian Heinisch 24 of 52 46% 4 of 25 2 of 4 18 of 23 22 of 50 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nassourdine Imavov 16 of 35 45% 11 of 28 5 of 7 0 of 0 12 of 31 4 of 4 0 of 0
Ian Heinisch 14 of 25 56% 2 of 10 2 of 3 10 of 12 13 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Nassourdine Imavov 23 of 61 37% 21 of 54 2 of 7 0 of 0 17 of 41 2 of 2 4 of 18
Ian Heinisch 10 of 27 37% 2 of 15 0 of 1 8 of 11 9 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ian Heinisch

Angelo picks Ian Heinisch but notes it's a close fight. He thinks Heinisch's wrestling and pressure will be key, but Imavov is a good counter-striker and has decent grappling. He expects Heinisch to win a decision or via grappling control. He likes the more/more on monkey knife fight because both fighters will be busy. He does not have Heinisch in his DraftKings lineup at $8,500 but thinks he's not a terrible play.

more/more on monkey knife fight
"highnish is my pick to win this fight um i i don't have him in my lineup at 8 500"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ian Heinisch

Big Brady picks Ian Heinisch by decision, citing a massive step down in competition for Heinisch and a step up for Imavov. He notes Heinisch can replicate Phil Hawes' game plan of holding Imavov against the cage and mixing takedowns. Despite Heinisch's low takedown accuracy (18%), he attributes it to facing elite wrestlers, while Imavov has been taken down frequently. He expects Heinisch's relentless wrestling and pace to overwhelm Imavov.

"i'm going to go with highness here to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ian Heinisch

Cody picks Heinisch, arguing that Imavov is not a wrestler and that Heinisch will finally be able to strike without worrying about takedowns. He notes Heinisch has fought elite grapplers and has good takedown defense. He expects Heinisch to mix in his own wrestling and win by decision. He also likes the over.

over 2.5 rounds, Heinisch by decision
"i got a strong feeling this thing's going the over and in the distance and i would go high initial kindness by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Ian Heinisch

Daniel Levi leans toward Ian Heinisch, acknowledging he should be favored but at the current price it's a pass or Imavov. He expects a close fight with clinch exchanges, predicting Heinisch via split decision. Levi notes that Heinisch has fought better competition but has been losing rounds, while Imavov is a dog who won't quit.

"i'll lean highness you know i think kinda should be favored but at the current price i would say it's probably a mava of her pass"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ian Heinisch

Jacob picks Ian Heinisch because he believes Heinisch will out-wrestle Imavov, who tends to accept grappling positions. He notes that Imavov gassed in his last fight against Jordan Williams and that Heinisch, being a tough Rikers guy, won't tire. He doesn't like Heinisch enough to put him in his DraftKings lineup because if the wrestling fails, things could go south quickly.

"i like ian in this matchup i think he's going to out wrestle umavov"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ian Heinisch

The host picks Ian Heinisch, citing his wrestling and pressure advantage over Imavov. He believes Heinisch will take Imavov down and control him, especially as the fight progresses. He notes Imavov's grappling deficiencies and recent hand injury. He likes Heinisch by decision at +145 and also mentions a potential third-round finish.

Heinisch by decision +145; Heinisch round three +1575 (sprinkle)
"i do like highness by decision which is my most which is my favorite prop here plus 145"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ian Heinisch

Paul also picks Heinisch, noting his move to Sanford MMA and improved training. He thinks Imavov looked awful against Phil Hawes and has poor ring IQ. He likes Heinisch's power and has a small bet on Heinisch by KO at +700 and round 1 KO at +2000. He thinks the finish props have value.

Heinisch by KO +700, Heinisch round 1 KO +2000
"i took a little shot on ian heines i i went back and kind of watched the meerscher fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ian Heinisch

The Guru picks Heinisch, valuing his close decision loss to Kelvin Gastelum over Imavov's loss to Phil Hawes. He notes Heinisch's grappling, power, and solid chin, and believes Imavov is open to getting clipped early. He also mentions Heinisch is fighting to stay relevant. He predicts a TKO win.

TKO
"i'm going to go the in high niche it's on the line for him i think he gets it done maybe by tko"
LOSS vs Kelvin Gastelum
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns · Feb 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 0 38 of 84 45% 51 of 115 6 of 14 42% 0 1 6:50
Ian Heinisch 0 27 of 67 40% 56 of 107 1 of 6 16% 2 1 1:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 6 of 13 46% 13 of 25 3 of 5 60% 0 0 3:25
Ian Heinisch 0 6 of 15 40% 10 of 21 0 of 2 0% 2 0 0:03
2 Kelvin Gastelum 0 16 of 34 47% 21 of 48 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:03
Ian Heinisch 0 12 of 31 38% 23 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Kelvin Gastelum 0 16 of 37 43% 17 of 42 2 of 5 40% 0 1 1:22
Ian Heinisch 0 9 of 21 42% 23 of 44 1 of 3 33% 0 1 1:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 38 of 84 45% 20 of 62 10 of 13 8 of 9 28 of 69 8 of 11 2 of 4
Ian Heinisch 27 of 67 40% 10 of 42 6 of 11 11 of 14 26 of 64 0 of 0 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 6 of 13 46% 3 of 10 2 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 1
Ian Heinisch 6 of 15 40% 0 of 7 1 of 2 5 of 6 6 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Kelvin Gastelum 16 of 34 47% 6 of 21 4 of 6 6 of 7 13 of 28 3 of 5 0 of 1
Ian Heinisch 12 of 31 38% 5 of 20 3 of 6 4 of 5 12 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Kelvin Gastelum 16 of 37 43% 11 of 31 4 of 5 1 of 1 9 of 29 5 of 6 2 of 2
Ian Heinisch 9 of 21 42% 5 of 15 2 of 3 2 of 3 8 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 3
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

Big Brady picks Kelvin Gastelum to win by decision, but with no confidence. He thinks Gastelum's recent losses are to top competition and that Heinisch is a step down. He believes Gastelum has better takedown defense, cardio, and striking. However, he acknowledges Gastelum has looked awful and Heinisch has heart and grit. He advises staying away from betting this fight.

Gastelum by decision; stay away from betting
"I'm gonna take who i think is the better fighter but i mean like no confidence in this one"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

Daniel Levi picks Kelvin Gastelum but with low confidence, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation. He acknowledges Gastelum is the better fighter on paper but questions his motivation and recent performances since the Adesanya fight. He notes Gastelum's inconsistency and that Heinisch could sneak a decision if Gastelum doesn't show up. He ultimately picks Gastelum as a pure pick but advises against betting him at -225.

Dog or pass situation; not a betting play at -225; mentions Gastelum's past wins over Tim Kennedy and his fight with Adesanya
"i gotta go with kelvin as a pick but i agree with shaq this is a dogger pass situation"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

The host believes Gastelum has the better hands and will be able to keep the fight on the feet, outstriking Heinisch. He notes that Heinisch's grappling-heavy style has struggled against wrestlers like Brunson and Akhmedov, and that Gastelum is a crafty grappler himself. He predicts a third-round TKO as Gastelum's power and pace overwhelm Heinisch late.

third round tko
"i think calvin gastelum has all the skills in the world to go out there and beat a guy like ian heinisch"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

The Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum, believing he is more technical and has better takedown defense. He notes that Ian Heinisch slows down in later rounds, and Gastelum's youth and cardio will allow him to push the pace and finish Heinisch in the third round via TKO. He compares the matchup to Gastelum's win over Tim Kennedy.

Gastelum by third round TKO
"i think cohen gasoline wins this one with superior takedown defense... earning himself a third round tko against ian heineck"
TKO (punches) R1 1:14 · UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · Jun 06, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ian Heinisch 1 20 of 25 80% 22 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Gerald Meerschaert 0 3 of 10 30% 3 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ian Heinisch 1 20 of 25 80% 22 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Gerald Meerschaert 0 3 of 10 30% 3 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ian Heinisch 20 of 25 80% 17 of 22 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 5 0 of 0 15 of 20
Gerald Meerschaert 3 of 10 30% 1 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ian Heinisch 20 of 25 80% 17 of 22 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 5 0 of 0 15 of 20
Gerald Meerschaert 3 of 10 30% 1 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ian Heinisch vs. Gerald Meerschaert

Round 1
Back to the middleweight division we go, where we will get to see a match between Heinisch (13-3, 2-2 UFC) and Meerschaert (31-12, 6-4 UFC) that was briefly pulled from the lineup when one of Heinisch’s new cornermen tested positive for COVID-19. How the UFC can determine that the corner’s first test was a false positive and not that the second test was a false negative, we may never know. Everyone including referee Chris Tognoni has their fingers crossed for this one. There is no glove touch, and Heinisch nearly kicks out the lead leg on his first kick. He fires another, and Meerschaert does not wear it well. Heinisch targets that lead leg once more, and Meerschaert comes at him with a few long punches that glance off the target. “GM3” lands a body kick and comes up short with a left, but more importantly successfully avoids the counter right hand that flies at his head.
Heinisch ducks down and blasts him with a monster right hand that sets Meerschaert down, and “GM3” is hurt badly. “Hurricane” lets loose a storm of thunderous punches that continue to batter Meerschaert one after the other. Turtled up on his knees, Meerschaert keeps taking punches on both sides of his head until Tognoni has seen more than enough and calls the fight.
From being yanked off the card to recording a crushing victory in mere days, this is an important and emphatic win for Heinisch.

The Official Result
Ian Heinisch def. Gerald Meerschaert R1 1:14 via TKO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
Ian Heinisch

Big Brady leans toward Ian Heinisch, believing the matchup favors him stylistically. He thinks Heinisch can close the distance, land takedowns, and avoid Meerschaert's BJJ. He notes Meerschaert's reach advantage and improved striking but feels Heinisch's wrestling and pressure will earn a close decision. He acknowledges Meerschaert is underrated.

"I just think this matchup favors Hainish I'm gonna go with - share - close the distance maybe laying some takedowns stay out of trouble on the ground and when I probably probably a really close decision here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Gerald Meerschaert

Daniel finds it hard to cap Meerschaert because he often wins despite looking slow and unathletic. He sees this as a 50/50 fight and leans toward Meerschaert as the dog, citing his veteran savvy, jiu-jitsu black belt, and ability to capitalize on mistakes. He acknowledges Heinisch's cardio and will but thinks Meerschaert can snatch a submission or win a decision.

"I'm gonna lean towards mer shark as the dog odds are on him but I could realistically see it going either way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Ian Heinisch

Ian Heinisch has great cardio and submission defense, which should help him avoid Gerald Meerschaert's submissions. Heinisch has the speed advantage and should be able to get in and out. However, his output has been a concern in past fights. If he lets his hands go, he can outpace Meerschaert. The pick is Heinisch, but not confident enough to bet.

Ian Heinisch by TKO in round 3
"i'm gonna i'm gonna lean on the the e and highness side just due to the fact that i like guys with slightly better cardio"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ian Heinisch

The MMA Guru picks Ian Heinisch over Gerald Meerschaert. He questions the quality of Meerschaert's recent wins, noting that Trevin Giles and Deron Winn are overrated. He believes Heinisch's takedown defense and power will be too much, and that Heinisch will win by decision, becoming a mainstay in the rankings.

"I think Hainish is gonna be able to beat Mir sure I think my niche is actually gonna be a mainstay of the rankings and I've been on in winning this fight by decision"
LOSS vs Omari Akhmedov
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · Dec 14, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Omari Akhmedov 0 53 of 103 51% 70 of 121 3 of 10 30% 0 0 2:29
Ian Heinisch 0 55 of 166 33% 69 of 180 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Omari Akhmedov 0 13 of 28 46% 17 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Ian Heinisch 0 19 of 54 35% 21 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:37
2 Omari Akhmedov 0 17 of 31 54% 19 of 33 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:51
Ian Heinisch 0 18 of 60 30% 25 of 67 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:31
3 Omari Akhmedov 0 23 of 44 52% 34 of 56 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:38
Ian Heinisch 0 18 of 52 34% 23 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Omari Akhmedov 53 of 103 51% 26 of 62 13 of 27 14 of 14 46 of 94 4 of 6 3 of 3
Ian Heinisch 55 of 166 33% 41 of 139 10 of 23 4 of 4 48 of 159 7 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Omari Akhmedov 13 of 28 46% 3 of 11 1 of 8 9 of 9 13 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ian Heinisch 19 of 54 35% 12 of 46 4 of 5 3 of 3 17 of 52 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Omari Akhmedov 17 of 31 54% 7 of 17 7 of 11 3 of 3 15 of 28 1 of 2 1 of 1
Ian Heinisch 18 of 60 30% 14 of 49 3 of 10 1 of 1 15 of 57 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Omari Akhmedov 23 of 44 52% 16 of 34 5 of 8 2 of 2 18 of 38 3 of 4 2 of 2
Ian Heinisch 18 of 52 34% 15 of 44 3 of 8 0 of 0 16 of 50 2 of 2 0 of 0
LOSS vs Derek Brunson
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · Aug 17, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derek Brunson 0 81 of 185 43% 102 of 207 2 of 10 20% 0 0 2:13
Ian Heinisch 0 58 of 143 40% 65 of 150 0 of 8 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derek Brunson 0 16 of 42 38% 27 of 54 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:58
Ian Heinisch 0 19 of 43 44% 21 of 45 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Derek Brunson 0 29 of 55 52% 35 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:38
Ian Heinisch 0 13 of 34 38% 13 of 34 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Derek Brunson 0 36 of 88 40% 40 of 92 2 of 5 40% 0 0 0:37
Ian Heinisch 0 26 of 66 39% 31 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derek Brunson 81 of 185 43% 51 of 142 26 of 37 4 of 6 69 of 170 7 of 9 5 of 6
Ian Heinisch 58 of 143 40% 37 of 114 16 of 23 5 of 6 49 of 130 8 of 12 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derek Brunson 16 of 42 38% 10 of 35 5 of 6 1 of 1 12 of 37 4 of 5 0 of 0
Ian Heinisch 19 of 43 44% 8 of 31 7 of 8 4 of 4 14 of 36 5 of 7 0 of 0
2 Derek Brunson 29 of 55 52% 21 of 41 7 of 11 1 of 3 23 of 48 1 of 1 5 of 6
Ian Heinisch 13 of 34 38% 7 of 22 6 of 11 0 of 1 11 of 31 1 of 2 1 of 1
3 Derek Brunson 36 of 88 40% 20 of 66 14 of 20 2 of 2 34 of 85 2 of 3 0 of 0
Ian Heinisch 26 of 66 39% 22 of 61 3 of 4 1 of 1 24 of 63 2 of 3 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: dos Anjos vs. Lee · May 18, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ian Heinisch 0 15 of 33 45% 25 of 43 4 of 11 36% 0 1 6:23
Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 39 of 67 58% 79 of 115 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ian Heinisch 0 8 of 12 66% 13 of 17 3 of 6 50% 0 0 4:11
Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 1 of 4 25% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
2 Ian Heinisch 0 3 of 12 25% 5 of 14 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:27
Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 18 of 30 60% 39 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:58
3 Ian Heinisch 0 4 of 9 44% 7 of 12 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:45
Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 20 of 33 60% 32 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ian Heinisch 15 of 33 45% 10 of 27 1 of 2 4 of 4 11 of 28 2 of 2 2 of 3
Antônio Carlos Júnior 39 of 67 58% 26 of 48 2 of 5 11 of 14 13 of 31 5 of 7 21 of 29
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ian Heinisch 8 of 12 66% 5 of 8 0 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 7 2 of 2 2 of 3
Antônio Carlos Júnior 1 of 4 25% 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 3 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ian Heinisch 3 of 12 25% 2 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Antônio Carlos Júnior 18 of 30 60% 11 of 22 1 of 2 6 of 6 5 of 13 2 of 3 11 of 14
3 Ian Heinisch 4 of 9 44% 3 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Antônio Carlos Júnior 20 of 33 60% 15 of 26 1 of 2 4 of 5 7 of 14 3 of 4 10 of 15
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio · Nov 17, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ian Heinisch 0 26 of 55 47% 38 of 68 5 of 11 45% 0 0 5:20
Cezar Ferreira 1 55 of 95 57% 90 of 133 1 of 7 14% 2 0 1:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ian Heinisch 0 6 of 9 66% 7 of 10 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:25
Cezar Ferreira 0 13 of 21 61% 20 of 29 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
2 Ian Heinisch 0 9 of 18 50% 18 of 27 3 of 4 75% 0 0 1:28
Cezar Ferreira 1 13 of 27 48% 13 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
3 Ian Heinisch 0 11 of 28 39% 13 of 31 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:27
Cezar Ferreira 0 29 of 47 61% 57 of 77 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ian Heinisch 26 of 55 47% 17 of 39 3 of 9 6 of 7 22 of 47 4 of 8 0 of 0
Cezar Ferreira 55 of 95 57% 38 of 74 10 of 10 7 of 11 30 of 59 14 of 21 11 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ian Heinisch 6 of 9 66% 3 of 4 0 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cezar Ferreira 13 of 21 61% 5 of 10 6 of 6 2 of 5 8 of 15 1 of 2 4 of 4
2 Ian Heinisch 9 of 18 50% 6 of 11 2 of 5 1 of 2 9 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cezar Ferreira 13 of 27 48% 7 of 20 2 of 2 4 of 5 8 of 18 0 of 1 5 of 8
3 Ian Heinisch 11 of 28 39% 8 of 24 1 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 20 4 of 8 0 of 0
Cezar Ferreira 29 of 47 61% 26 of 44 2 of 2 1 of 1 14 of 26 13 of 18 2 of 3
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

Big Brady picks Kelvin Gastelum to win by decision, but with no confidence. He thinks Gastelum's recent losses are to top competition and that Heinisch is a step down. He believes Gastelum has better takedown defense, cardio, and striking. However, he acknowledges Gastelum has looked awful and Heinisch has heart and grit. He advises staying away from betting this fight.

Gastelum by decision; stay away from betting
"I'm gonna take who i think is the better fighter but i mean like no confidence in this one"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

Daniel Levi picks Kelvin Gastelum but with low confidence, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation. He acknowledges Gastelum is the better fighter on paper but questions his motivation and recent performances since the Adesanya fight. He notes Gastelum's inconsistency and that Heinisch could sneak a decision if Gastelum doesn't show up. He ultimately picks Gastelum as a pure pick but advises against betting him at -225.

Dog or pass situation; not a betting play at -225; mentions Gastelum's past wins over Tim Kennedy and his fight with Adesanya
"i gotta go with kelvin as a pick but i agree with shaq this is a dogger pass situation"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

The host believes Gastelum has the better hands and will be able to keep the fight on the feet, outstriking Heinisch. He notes that Heinisch's grappling-heavy style has struggled against wrestlers like Brunson and Akhmedov, and that Gastelum is a crafty grappler himself. He predicts a third-round TKO as Gastelum's power and pace overwhelm Heinisch late.

third round tko
"i think calvin gastelum has all the skills in the world to go out there and beat a guy like ian heinisch"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kelvin Gastelum

The Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum, believing he is more technical and has better takedown defense. He notes that Ian Heinisch slows down in later rounds, and Gastelum's youth and cardio will allow him to push the pace and finish Heinisch in the third round via TKO. He compares the matchup to Gastelum's win over Tim Kennedy.

Gastelum by third round TKO
"i think cohen gasoline wins this one with superior takedown defense... earning himself a third round tko against ian heineck"