Career Averages - Kamaru Usman
Career Averages - Gilbert Burns
Kamaru Usman
Gilbert Burns
Kamaru Usman - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 41 of 99 | 41% | 137 of 243 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 12:57 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 44 of 148 | 29% | 51 of 156 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 41 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:25 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 33 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:08 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 3 of 17 | 17% | 3 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 33 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 10 of 35 | 28% | 13 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 6 of 20 | 30% | 20 of 39 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 11 of 34 | 32% | 11 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 10 of 26 | 38% | 10 of 26 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 20 of 58 | 34% | 23 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamaru Usman | 41 of 99 | 41% | 33 of 89 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 69 | 2 of 4 | 17 of 26 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 44 of 148 | 29% | 29 of 130 | 12 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 41 of 144 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kamaru Usman | 7 of 11 | 63% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 9 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kamaru Usman | 10 of 21 | 47% | 6 of 16 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 3 of 17 | 17% | 2 of 14 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kamaru Usman | 8 of 21 | 38% | 6 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 10 of 35 | 28% | 5 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Kamaru Usman | 6 of 20 | 30% | 4 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 11 of 34 | 32% | 6 of 29 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Kamaru Usman | 10 of 26 | 38% | 10 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 20 of 58 | 34% | 16 of 54 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buckley (-258), Usman (+210)
Round 1
The proverbial torch is lit and in the hand of former champ Usman (20-4, 15-3 UFC), whose only losses in the UFC are to Leon Edwards twice and against Khamzat Chimaev in a middleweight match that may have been a draw. After plenty of time off to get his head right, “The Nigerian Nightmare” hoists the flame and will do his darnedest to stave off the hard-charging kickfighter Buckley (21-6, 11-4 UFC). Something dramatic might happen in the next 25 minutes, and if it does, referee Mike Beltran will be on top of it. The welterweights are not brought to the center of the cage to receive instructions, and instead do it of their own accord, going forehead to forehead. They opt not to bump fists to seal the cage. It’s on with the show. Buckley practically sprints out of his corner to get after it, fishing with jabs to set up a left. They clash heads on the way in, and Buckley hops back uncomfortably. Usman no-sells it and plods forward, looping a single right hand and shooting for a double when Buckley fails on his counter. Buckley hits his seat, and he posts off an arm to try to recover position. Usman drags him away from the fencing so he can establish himself in half guard, and he presses down with his body weight to keep the striker flat. Usman postures up to hack down with an elbow, and after striking, he immediately returns to imposing every pound of his imposing frame. Usman finds a right hand around the guard as he smothers “New Mansa,” and when Buckley sits up, he connects with another solid right. Usman drags him back down the moment Buckley is about to escape, where he makes Buckley pay for his effort with some more ground-and-pound. Usman grinds effectively with powerful punches from above, and he stacks Buckley up to gain a little more distance and increase the potency on his attacks. Usman returns to half guard, shredding Buckley’s right eyebrow open with his elbows. Usman bombards Buckley with elbows and furious punches until time expires. Buckley stands up, blood streaming down his face, and he smiles.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Round 2
Buckley is just as eager to get going despite around five minutes of that, as he races at Usman letting punches go. Usman keeps his guard up to parry or deflect most flying at his face. Usman kicks the body and stays out of range of the counter left, and he ducks down directly into an uppercut. The 38-year-old’s beard holds up fine, and he measures a left hand and fakes for a takedown that draws an exaggerated reaction from his opponent. Buckley plants a side kick on the midsection that makes Usman take a funny step, and he surges at the former champ to put fists on him. Usman responds with one high and one to the body, and he defends the head kick that soars his direction. Usman uses a one-two to shoot in for a speedy single, and he strips Buckley’s footing out and sets him down at the three-minute mark. Usman climbs his way to establish mount, hopping to the side to control in half guard rather than giving Buckley a chance to get out. Usman keeps at least one arm under Buckley’s leg to keep him grounded, and he pummels “New Mansa” with short but damaging strikes with any free hand or wing. Usman hacks with another elbow to open the cut back up on Buckley’s eyebrow or eyelid, and he frames off to keep pounding on the kickboxer. Usman works Buckley over from above, hopping to half guard on the other side so he can beat down Buckley with right hands and elbows. Usman further works on Buckley, causing more blood to flow until the round ends. As Buckley stands up, Usman falls off of him, but it is not from ill intent and instead a strange position that befell the two.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Round 3
To change things up, Buckley comes out of his corner with his hands down, positioning himself in a more karate stance. He lands a single side kick, and he charges forward with a flurry of punches but ends up bouncing his head into the former champ’s. Usman shrugs it off and pitches a head kick at him, and he slides to the side and eats a left hand. Buckley connects twice before getting on his bike, not wishing to stand still so he is vulnerable to a takedown entry. Usman level changes to draw a reaction out of him, ducking a right hand over the top. Buckley loads up with left hands, throwing Usman off-balance but not dropping him. Usman’s jab re-opens the wound on Buckley’s face once more, and he jabs a front kick to the body. Buckley stays behind a power jab, and he dodges an Usman hook to catch him with two. Usman drops down, and he takes Buckley off his feet and assumes top position. Usman is quick to rev up his ground-and-pound engine again, where he further bloodies up “New Mansa” with his ultra-effective ground strikes. Buckley surges to a knee, and Usman leans on him and knees him in the posterior a few times to discourage him from standing without protecting his face. Usman tugs him back down, and he looks irritated that he has been taken down and controlled like this. Buckley posts off his arm and is wrenched down immediately, as Usman mounts him and bombards him with punches and nasty elbows. As the elbows continue to connect, the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Round 4
The fighters get right back to it, with a fire lit under Buckley’s belly. He swings a head kick and several punches behind them, but Usman’s head movement and footwork is making a huge difference even at the age of 38. Buckley tries to work behind his jab, switching stances so eh can chain strikes together, and he pops Usman twice as he retreats. Buckley scores an uppercut, stuffs a takedown and eats a right on the way out. Buckley keeps his hands low as he starts talking to the former champ, goading him into reckless exchanges. One such exchange immediately presents itself, and it ends in a bump of heads. Usman does not register as if anything happened at all, and he snipes the kickboxer with a jab. Buckley tells him it was a good strike, and Usman answers with a power double. Buckley sprawls about as deep as someone can against the wall, and he smiles that he might be able to defend this deep effort. The smile turns to a grimace as Usman lifts him up and down to the ground, where he once more establishes himself in smothering yet dangerous top control. Buckley starts booing from off his back, as Usman controls him, with “The Nigerian Nightmare” shifting from one side to the other. Buckley motions to Beltran as if he will be stood up, but Usman is plenty active and has not drawn so much as a single warning for a lack of action. Buckley sits to a knee, and Usman pounds on him with a free right hand and a few elbows. Usman winds up with a power punch, and his slashing elbow concludes the fourth frame.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Round 5
As if he wants to channel his inner Leon Edwards, Buckley starts the fifth round off with a mighty head kick. Usman tanks it, unlike his fateful title loss, and he keeps marching forward. Beltran asks for the fighters to close their hands, and they proceed to jab it out. Usman goes down low for a single and then a double, and Buckley manages to break off and defend from the effort. Usman tries to change levels again, and Buckley once more stops it in its tracks. This time, Buckley strings together a few punches on the inside on the break. Usman pierces the guard with a sharp jab and fakes a single, and Buckley ignores it and gives back two power jabs of his own. “The Nigerian Nightmare” tries again for a takedown, and a third effort fails. A fourth does as well, and Buckley lets his hands fly and knocks Usman back a step. Usman whiffs with a left hand, and he dodges a big hook that comes back his way. Buckley wraps a left around the guard as he approaches awkwardly, and the two crash into one another as Buckley anticipates an Usman takedown. Usman bullies him to the wall, but he cannot keep him there. Buckley explodes out of control and starts slugging away, catching Usman with short, compact swings. Buckley releases a big left hand and plants a side kick on Usman’s chest, and scoops an uppercut that buzzes the former champ’s chin. Buckley scores with a jab and an uppercut, stinging Usman and forcing him to backpedal as he appears to be hurt. Buckley rushes at him, looping an uppercut his direction but not landing it. Buckley swings with everything he has, smacking Usman and getting tagged on the way back. The two hear the final horn blare, and immediately disengage the offense and congratulate one another for five fairly entertaining rounds likely deserving of “Fight of the Night” given the lack of competition earlier tonight.
On the post-fight interview, the victorious former champ is nearly overcome with emotion, taking a moment to gather his thoughts as he expresses gratitude towards his opponent. Usman says that he feels great and that people should “shut the front door”—paraphrased to remove profanity—about his bad his knees are. While he does not have a name on his tongue, he does state that he should be one win away from a title shot at worst. No matter who the self-proclaimed “f---ing boogeyman” fights next, we will be there for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (49-46 Usman)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (48-47 Buckley)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (48-47 Usman)
The Official Result
Kamaru Usman def. Joaquin Buckley via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
Angelo picks Buckley because he is younger, more active, and has speed and power. He notes that Usman is aging, hasn't fought in two years, and is on a losing streak. He believes Buckley will stay a step ahead and that the UFC is using Usman to build the next generation.
Big Brady picks Joaquin Buckley by third-round knockout. He believes Usman is past his prime, citing a two-year layoff, bad knees, and a washed performance in the second Edwards fight. He thinks Buckley is in his prime with power and will catch Usman's chin. He notes that a few years ago this would be a different fight, but now it's Buckley's time.
Connor picks Buckley, emphasizing that Usman's striking is built on posturing and a steady rhythm, and that Buckley's relentless pressure and power will disrupt that. He notes that Usman has never faced a high-volume power striker and that Buckley's wrestling scrambles and durability will be key. Connor also points out that Usman's age and knee issues make him vulnerable to being overwhelmed, though he acknowledges Usman could still catch Buckley with clean shots or force him into bad wrestling exchanges.
Age and bad knees are catching up to Usman at 38. Buckley is younger and better at this moment. He will stop the takedowns, punish Usman on the feet, and find a knockout between three and a half to four rounds.
The Guru picks Joaquin Buckley, noting value on Usman but favoring Buckley's movement, output, and physicality. He predicts Buckley will get ahead early and stay ahead, finishing Usman by TKO in the fourth round. He cites Usman's long layoff, knee issues, and inability to physically dominate Buckley as key factors.
Zane picks Buckley because he believes Buckley's youth, power, pace, and relentless pressure will overwhelm the older, worn-down Usman. He notes that Usman has never faced a high-volume power puncher like Buckley, and that Buckley's improved speed changes and physicality make him a bully at welterweight. Zane acknowledges Usman's technical advantages but thinks Buckley's hustle and stamina will carry him through, especially as Usman's knees and age have diminished his ability to maintain his own pace.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 36 of 66 | 54% | 58 of 92 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 38 of 70 | 54% | 107 of 143 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 7:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 16 of 17 | 94% | 61 of 66 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 4:35 | |
| 2 | Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 12 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 | |
| 3 | Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 41 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 13 of 33 | 39% | 34 of 54 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamzat Chimaev | 36 of 66 | 54% | 27 of 52 | 6 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 33 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Kamaru Usman | 38 of 70 | 54% | 27 of 53 | 3 of 9 | 8 of 8 | 22 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khamzat Chimaev | 3 of 3 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Kamaru Usman | 16 of 17 | 94% | 15 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 16 | |
| 2 | Khamzat Chimaev | 11 of 18 | 61% | 5 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kamaru Usman | 9 of 20 | 45% | 3 of 10 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Khamzat Chimaev | 22 of 45 | 48% | 20 of 41 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Kamaru Usman | 13 of 33 | 39% | 9 of 27 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chimaev (-285), Usman (+230)
Round 1
Unexpectedly preserving this fight, former welterweight kingpin Usman (20-3, 15-2 UFC) will be stepping up to 185 pounds for the first time in his career in the highly anticipated co-headliner. With just 12 days to prepare, he will collide with Chimaev (12-0, 6-0 UFC), who has been out of the Octagon for over a year while at middleweight for the first time since 2020. Many questions may be answered about both men when the dust settles, and referee Jason Herzog will take the helm for the second-to-last bout of the day. Chimaev has a wild look in his eye, and even though he offers a clap of hands, Usman is having none of it. The two look for their ranges, and Chimaev races forward and looks to take the former champ down. Usman defends it by dropping to a knee, and he springs back up. Chimaev grabs him from behind and looks for a mat return, while imposing his body weight on Usman. Chimaev presses Usman down and gets both hooks in, and he starts hammering Chimaev with hammerfists. Herzog asks Usman to work, and Usman sits up but still has “Borz” on his back. Chimaev fishes for a choke and mixes in punches, and he grabs the cage a few times to maintain position. Usman stays on his hands and knees, not allowing himself to get flattened out but completely nullified from an offensive perspective. Usman looks to shimmy Chimaev off his back, although this does not work. Chimaev looks for a potential choke and busts Usman in the face with a few punches and an elbow. Usman stands up, and Chimaev completes the body triangle and starts wrapping up a rear-naked choke. Usman fights the hands to defend against the choke, and he slams Chimaev right on his head to stop the submission. Chimaev flattens Usman out momentarily, but Usman sits up and leans himself against the fencing. Chimaev wraps his arms around Usman’s head, but the choke is not there. Chimaev works with strikes from around the sides of the head, and he drags Usman to his seat when Usman looks to recover. “Borz” sits up to land a few strikes, and the dominant round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Round 2
The second round begins, and both men are tentative to exchange in the early going. No strikes land for the first 45 seconds, when Usman jabs the body and kicks the calf. Chimaev changes stances after the kick, and he flicks out a jab. Usman fakes for a takedown, and Chimaev partially bites but does not sell out to defend an attempt that does not come. Usman puts the ball of his foot on Chimaev’s midsection, and he blocks a high body kick that soars back his way. Usman scores another front kick, and he gets pushed back when Chimaev kicks at his knee. The crowd grows restless at the inactivity from the two middleweights, and Usman goes down a little harder for a faked takedown. Usman lands a straight right hand and pump-fakes for another takedown, and he blocks a head kick. Chimaev gets off a leg kick, and he is jabbed to the body. Usman misses on a big right hand, and he leans back as Chimaev swats at him. Another head kick is guarded from the former champ, who looks for a level change and stings Chimaev with a one-two and follows with a calf kick. Usman reaches out with a left hand, and Chimaev shoots in deep for a double that puts Usman on his back with relative ease. Usman defends by tying up the arms and neck, stopping Chimaev from advancing or doing anything. Chimaev pops his head out in the last seconds, lands one punch, and the horn tweets.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Round 3
The last round opens up, and Chimaev dives face-first for a takedown that Usman comfortably stops and scoots away. Usman picks and pokes with jabs and leg kicks, and he reaches out with a right that brushes off the beard. Usman leans down and grabs Chimaev’s leg, but he lets it go to keep Chimaev thinking about the wrestling. Chimaev lands a body kick and gets knocked back with two fists, and this leads to “Borz” racing forward with a takedown. Chimaev stands up, and Usman rifles out several jabs to the head and body. Chimaev gets stung in an exchange, and Usman tags him with more jabs and shoots for his own takedown. Chimaev appears fatigued, with his winging strikes labored, and Usman can reach him when he tries. Chimaev drops down for an ankle, and he successfully scoops Usman up and sets him down courtesy of a single. Chimaev moves into half guard, and he grinds the former champion down. Usman looks to buck and prevent Chimaev from advancing, but time is not on his side. Chimaev does little more than control, but he is heavy and keeps Usman flat until Usman furiously escapes. With 20 seconds to go, Usman is on his feet, and he misses with a one-two. Usman lands a few punches, ducks the counters, and the two let their hands go right to the bitter end. Scorecards may be all over the place, regarding the potential score of the first round and the value of striking against grappling in this round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman (29-28 Usman)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev (29-28 Chimaev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev (30-27 Chimaev)
The Official Result
Khamzat Chimaev def. Kamaru Usman via Majority Decision (29-27, 29-27, 28-28)
Angelo picks Khamzat Chimaev, citing the circumstances: short notice for Usman, moving up in weight, travel, and a three-round fight. He thinks Usman's cardio won't benefit him and Chimaev's wrestling will be too much. He is excited to see Chimaev's takedown defense tested but believes the factors favor Chimaev.
Big Brady picks Khamzat Chimaev to win by first round TKO. He questions Kamaru Usman's motivation and decline, noting his age (36), injuries, and poor performance in the second Leon Edwards fight. Usman is taking the fight on short notice and moving up in weight. Brady believes Chimaev will take Usman down and finish him, as Usman has rarely been on his back and looked bad when he was.
Cody picks Usman as a dog, arguing that Chimaev has not proven himself against top competition. He points out that Chimaev struggled with Gilbert Burns, who is a former lightweight, and that Usman is a former champion with elite wrestling and striking. Cody believes Usman's takedown defense will neutralize Chimaev's wrestling, and that Usman's jab and experience will carry him to victory. He also notes that Chimaev's lifestyle and lack of loyalty may affect his focus.
Daniel picks Khamzat Chimaev to defeat Kamaru Usman, arguing that Chimaev is on the rise while Usman is on the decline after his title reign. He believes Chimaev's athleticism, strength, and power are superior, and that the Burns fight humbled him and made him more mature. He notes Usman's cardio and durability but questions his knees and motivation, suggesting Usman is cashing out. Daniel expects Chimaev to show he is the next generation and win, possibly by finishing Usman early or outworking him.
James did not make a pick for this fight. He discussed the fight post-fact, noting that Chimaev dominated round one with a 10-8 but gassed out, and that Usman won rounds two and three on some scorecards. He expressed that Chimaev is beatable if he doesn't finish early, but did not state a pre-fight pick.
Usman is a former champion with high-level cardio, great wrestling, and improving striking. Despite short notice, he has been active and can stop Chimaev's takedowns, push the pace, and use forward pressure. Chimaev has question marks about cardio and activity. Expects Usman to win by decision, possibly with a third-round sprinkle.
Paul picks Chimaev, noting that Chimaev has been preparing for a big Paulo Costa and has had time to put on size for middleweight, while Usman is coming on short notice and hasn't added muscle. He believes Chimaev can use his wrestling and reach advantage, and questions Usman's durability after recent KO losses. Paul thinks Chimaev cruises here.
The MMA Guru picks Khamzat Chimaev by first-round TKO. He argues that Usman is used to a physicality advantage and has bad knees, and that Chimaev will walk him down and land a big power shot. He notes that Colby Covington was rocking Usman and that Chimaev is more dangerous on the feet. He also points out that Usman has no power off his back foot and no slickness, while Chimaev has close reach and will push him back.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Edwards | 0 | 120 of 161 | 74% | 123 of 164 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 87 of 205 | 42% | 113 of 232 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 5:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 20 of 26 | 76% | 20 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 12 of 42 | 28% | 13 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 23 of 26 | 88% | 23 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 24 of 50 | 48% | 32 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 | |
| 3 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 24 of 32 | 75% | 25 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 17 of 32 | 53% | 22 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 | |
| 4 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 25 of 41 | 60% | 26 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 14 of 37 | 37% | 15 of 38 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 | |
| 5 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 28 of 36 | 77% | 29 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 20 of 44 | 45% | 31 of 56 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Edwards | 120 of 161 | 74% | 34 of 69 | 36 of 39 | 50 of 53 | 111 of 150 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Kamaru Usman | 87 of 205 | 42% | 57 of 163 | 24 of 34 | 6 of 8 | 65 of 177 | 21 of 27 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leon Edwards | 20 of 26 | 76% | 5 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 9 of 9 | 20 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kamaru Usman | 12 of 42 | 28% | 5 of 32 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Leon Edwards | 23 of 26 | 88% | 9 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 8 of 9 | 22 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Kamaru Usman | 24 of 50 | 48% | 19 of 42 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 34 | 11 of 15 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Leon Edwards | 24 of 32 | 75% | 2 of 9 | 8 of 8 | 14 of 15 | 24 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Kamaru Usman | 17 of 32 | 53% | 9 of 21 | 4 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 28 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Leon Edwards | 25 of 41 | 60% | 9 of 22 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 13 | 25 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Kamaru Usman | 14 of 37 | 37% | 7 of 28 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 14 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Leon Edwards | 28 of 36 | 77% | 9 of 16 | 12 of 13 | 7 of 7 | 20 of 28 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Kamaru Usman | 20 of 44 | 45% | 17 of 40 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 36 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Usman because he dominated the vast majority of the previous fight and has not lost since 2013. He thinks the first round was a fluke and Usman will wrestle and control the fight. He is not betting because of the knockout loss but believes Usman wins.
Big Brady picks Usman but with hesitation, noting he was clearly winning the second fight before the head kick. He lists concerns: Usman's age (35), injuries, travel to London, and the knockout loss. He thinks Edwards' path is a finish, while Usman can win rounds via wrestling and pressure. He predicts a decision win but will not bet this fight due to a bad feeling.
Cody picks Usman based on the belief that Usman was the better fighter in the first two fights and can make corrections after the knockout loss. He compares it to GSP after the Serra loss and Cain after the JDS loss, arguing that great champions bounce back. He notes Edwards is dangerous but thinks Usman will wrestle heavily and win by decision, as he doesn't see a finish. He acknowledges the moneyline is unappealing and prefers Usman by decision prop.
Connor believes Usman's pressure is the key to winning. He notes that Edwards is pathologically pressureable and retreats in straight lines, putting himself against the cage. While Usman has become less aggressive under Whitman, Connor thinks he can revert to pressuring Edwards, who has never shown the ability to hold the center of the cage consistently. Connor also points out that Edwards' evasive footwork is poor and his clinch game is neutralized by Usman's strength. He concludes that if Usman commits to pressure, Edwards has no escape.
Jacob is extremely confident in Edwards, having placed a $1,000 bet on him at +205. He believes Edwards was hampered by altitude in the first fight and still found the knockout. He thinks Usman's confidence is shattered after being knocked out cold and that Edwards will dominate in front of the home crowd.
Usman is a former champion with elite wrestling and cardio, and he was winning the second fight before getting caught. Edwards is a great striker but has defensive grappling issues. Usman should lean on his wrestling and avoid striking exchanges, grinding out a decision. The line is seen as a gift given Usman's proven ability.
Paul picks Edwards, citing the UK home advantage and potential hometown scoring. He notes Edwards had success in round one of the last fight (takedown, mount, back control) and is four years younger. He thinks this could be the end of Usman's elite run. He likes the plus money value and says he hasn't bet it yet but is a buyer at north of +200.
The MMA Guru picks Leon Edwards to win by decision, despite a history of picking main events wrong. He argues that altitude affected Edwards in the first fight, while Usman trains at elevation. Edwards dominated round one when both were fresh, and Usman's glove grab saved him from a choke. Usman is coming off a brutal KO loss, is older, and had a short camp with a hand injury. Edwards is entering his prime and has confidence. He predicts a 48-47 decision for Edwards.
Zane agrees with Connor that Usman should pressure Edwards. He notes that Edwards has never broken 100 significant strikes in a five-round fight and tends to fight down to his competition. Zane highlights that Usman has a history of high output even with wrestling, while Edwards fights in bursts. He thinks the psychological adjustment for Edwards to stand his ground is huge and possibly impossible. Zane also mentions that Usman's wrestling and clinch work will be decisive, as Edwards cannot match him there.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Edwards | 0 | 83 of 135 | 61% | 189 of 247 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 10:36 |
| Kamaru Usman | 1 | 55 of 75 | 73% | 64 of 85 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 | 0 | 2:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 36 of 39 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 13 of 13 | 100% | 17 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:01 | |
| 2 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 36 of 65 | 55% | 47 of 76 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 20 of 28 | 71% | 21 of 29 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 38 of 49 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:23 |
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 22 of 30 | 73% | 54 of 62 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:51 |
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 9 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 | |
| 5 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Kamaru Usman | 1 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Edwards | 83 of 135 | 61% | 61 of 109 | 17 of 21 | 5 of 5 | 46 of 85 | 15 of 22 | 22 of 28 |
| Kamaru Usman | 55 of 75 | 73% | 20 of 38 | 22 of 24 | 13 of 13 | 42 of 62 | 7 of 7 | 6 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leon Edwards | 6 of 7 | 85% | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Kamaru Usman | 13 of 13 | 100% | 6 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 6 | |
| 2 | Leon Edwards | 36 of 65 | 55% | 25 of 52 | 8 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 49 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 10 |
| Kamaru Usman | 20 of 28 | 71% | 7 of 15 | 9 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Leon Edwards | 10 of 17 | 58% | 9 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 5 |
| Kamaru Usman | 7 of 10 | 70% | 3 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Leon Edwards | 22 of 30 | 73% | 18 of 25 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 12 | 8 of 9 | 9 of 9 |
| Kamaru Usman | 6 of 10 | 60% | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Leon Edwards | 9 of 16 | 56% | 4 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Kamaru Usman | 9 of 14 | 64% | 2 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Kamaru Usman to defeat Leon Edwards in their rematch. He notes that Usman is on track to become the greatest welterweight of all time, with technical striking and power, as seen in his knockout over Masvidal. Angelo points out that Usman already beat Edwards in 2015 with six takedowns and 11 minutes of control time, and believes Usman can win anywhere. He also mentions that Edwards struggled against Nate Diaz, getting outstruck and needing takedowns to secure the win. Angelo placed a moneyline bet on Usman at -335 and expects the line to move further.
Big Brady picks Kamaru Usman. He acknowledges that Leon Edwards is the better striker at range, but Usman has improved his striking with power and a great jab. Usman is a smart fighter who will use his wrestling and pressure, taking Edwards down and grinding on him for 25 minutes. Brady expects Usman to win by decision, though he notes a finish is possible given Usman's recent power. He respects Edwards but believes Usman's game plan and skills will prevail.
Cody picks Usman, emphasizing his stand-up improvement under Trevor Whitman, his wrestling, and the pressure he brings. He questions Edwards' resume and his ability to handle pressure, noting that Edwards has struggled in later rounds against lesser competition. He thinks Usman could knock him out but expects a decision.
Daniel Levi picks Kamaru Usman to win the rematch. He emphasizes Usman's superior pace and output, noting that Usman's output is almost double Edwards'. He believes Usman's top control will allow him to bank rounds by holding Edwards down. Levi acknowledges Edwards' paths to victory—slowing the pace and sniping Usman as he closes distance—but ultimately thinks this is a bad time to bet against Usman. He mentions that long-reigning champions sometimes lose when least expected, but he still favors Usman.
Usman's wrestling, cardio, and improving striking should overwhelm Edwards, who was nearly finished by Nate Diaz. The host expects Usman to grapple heavily and possibly finish late. He likes Usman round 4-5 or decision at -155 as a better bet than the moneyline. He includes Usman in a four-leg parlay.
Paul picks Usman to win, citing his cardio advantage from training in Denver, his pressure and wrestling, and the ability to slow down Edwards. He notes the -400 line is too steep but still sees Usman as the winner. He mentions he might look for underdog value elsewhere but officially picks Usman.
The Guru predicts Leon Edwards wins via 49-46 unanimous decision, with two judges scoring it 49-46 and one judge giving it 48-47 to Usman. He envisions Edwards landing effective leg kicks, body kicks, and jabs, cutting Usman with an elbow in round one. He sees Edwards rocking Usman with a head kick in round two and an uppercut-left hook combo in round three. However, he acknowledges Edwards slows down in rounds four and five, with Usman taking him down and landing punches, but believes Edwards clearly won rounds one, two, and three.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamaru Usman | 2 | 123 of 293 | 41% | 158 of 336 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
| Colby Covington | 0 | 107 of 281 | 38% | 119 of 298 | 0 of 11 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 22 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Colby Covington | 0 | 13 of 47 | 27% | 13 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kamaru Usman | 2 | 36 of 71 | 50% | 50 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Colby Covington | 0 | 19 of 47 | 40% | 19 of 48 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 | |
| 3 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 23 of 58 | 39% | 30 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Colby Covington | 0 | 21 of 56 | 37% | 23 of 59 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 4 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 23 of 70 | 32% | 24 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Colby Covington | 0 | 33 of 77 | 42% | 38 of 83 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 5 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 24 of 51 | 47% | 32 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Colby Covington | 0 | 21 of 54 | 38% | 26 of 61 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamaru Usman | 123 of 293 | 41% | 80 of 241 | 41 of 50 | 2 of 2 | 107 of 274 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 12 |
| Colby Covington | 107 of 281 | 38% | 79 of 242 | 23 of 33 | 5 of 6 | 101 of 274 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kamaru Usman | 17 of 43 | 39% | 12 of 34 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Colby Covington | 13 of 47 | 27% | 8 of 37 | 3 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 13 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kamaru Usman | 36 of 71 | 50% | 19 of 51 | 16 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 58 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 10 |
| Colby Covington | 19 of 47 | 40% | 10 of 37 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kamaru Usman | 23 of 58 | 39% | 18 of 52 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Colby Covington | 21 of 56 | 37% | 15 of 48 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Kamaru Usman | 23 of 70 | 32% | 17 of 64 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Colby Covington | 33 of 77 | 42% | 28 of 71 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 75 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Kamaru Usman | 24 of 51 | 47% | 14 of 40 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Colby Covington | 21 of 54 | 38% | 18 of 49 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Kamaru Usman, citing his development of knockout power, improved striking, and proven ability to win wars. He notes that the first fight was competitive and that Usman has since shown he can come back from being dropped. He believes Covington cannot win by stoppage and that Usman's power is a constant threat. He thinks the odds are too wide but still picks Usman.
Big Brady picks Kamaru Usman to win by fourth-round knockout. He notes Usman's improved striking power, as seen in his knockouts of Burns and Masvidal, while Covington is a decision fighter without power. Brady thinks Covington's volume will be competitive early, but Usman's power and technical striking will take over as the fight goes on. He expects a similar fight to the first, but with Usman finishing Covington late.
Cody thinks the line is wrong but agrees Usman should win. He notes Covington's pace and durability but believes Usman's cardio and confidence grow as the fight goes on, pulling away late. He expects a close fight and suggests live betting Covington if the line moves.
Daniel Levi picks Kamaru Usman to defend his belt, citing that Usman is slightly better everywhere and that the first fight was a classic war. He notes that Usman has improved his striking and has knockout power, but acknowledges Covington's cardio and heart. Levi is not laying -350 but believes Usman will be slightly ahead and win a close decision. He also mentions that Covington has been training at MMA Masters and may have improved, but still favors Usman.
Jacob picks Colby Covington, believing he will make adjustments and use his wrestling and volume to win a razor-thin decision. He thinks Covington needs to trust his cardio, stay in Usman's face, and avoid loading up on power shots. He notes that Covington was winning the first fight on his scorecard. He has a parlay with Covington and Chandler.
The host picks Usman by fourth-round TKO, citing his power and improvements. He thinks the fight will be close but Usman's power is the difference. He considers the over 3.5 rounds and Usman by KO at +180.
Paul believes Usman wins about 70-75% of the time, citing Usman's improvements with Whitman, knockout of Masvidal, and durability. He thinks the line is close to accurate but sees value on Covington at plus money. He bet over 3.5 rounds at -135, expecting a competitive fight that goes late.
The Guru picks Kamaru Usman by fourth-round KO, predicting he will target Covington's body early, exploiting a weakness found in their first fight. He notes Usman's activity and mental edge from the previous win, while Covington has been inactive. The Guru expects Covington to win the first round but Usman to take over with body shots and eventually finish with a big right hand and ground strikes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamaru Usman | 1 | 21 of 40 | 52% | 32 of 54 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 0 | 31 of 52 | 59% | 56 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 14 of 30 | 46% | 25 of 44 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 0 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 48 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kamaru Usman | 1 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 0 | 8 of 10 | 80% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamaru Usman | 21 of 40 | 52% | 15 of 32 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 10 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 31 of 52 | 59% | 13 of 33 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 15 | 27 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kamaru Usman | 14 of 30 | 46% | 8 of 22 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 23 of 42 | 54% | 12 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 9 | 19 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | |
| 2 | Kamaru Usman | 7 of 10 | 70% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 8 of 10 | 80% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 6 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo relays Glover Teixeira's pick of Masvidal, noting that with a full camp Masvidal has takedown defense and striking edge. He agrees with the logic, mentioning Glover's ties to American Top Team and his training with Masvidal. Angelo seems to endorse the pick, calling it good insight.
Big Brady picks Usman to win a comfortable decision. He expects Usman to implement his game plan of takedowns, cage control, and foot stomps, grinding out Masvidal. He notes Masvidal has power but Usman has never been KO'd and has excellent takedown defense. He considers Usman a safe parlay piece.
Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing Usman's wrestling and grinding style. He notes Masvidal's age (36) and journeyman status, and that Usman's jab and clinch work will wear him down. He sees a similar outcome to the first fight, with Usman winning by decision. He mentions the -425 price is in line with an 80% win rate and that Usman by decision is a likely prop.
Daniel picks Kamaru Usman to retain his belt, expecting him to take over in the later rounds as Masvidal fades. He acknowledges Masvidal's improved conditioning with a full camp and his one-punch KO power, but believes Usman's work rate and pressure will be too much. He notes the odds are wide and calls it a dog or pass situation from a betting perspective.
I think Usman will repeat his performance from the first fight: grinding Masvidal against the cage, using foot stomps, and controlling the pace. Masvidal is durable and hasn't been finished in 12 years, so a decision is likely. Usman's cardio and wrestling are superior. I like Usman by decision at -130, which improves the moneyline odds.
Paul believes Usman will replicate the first fight: grinding Masvidal against the cage, using his wrestling and jab to control the fight. He notes Masvidal's durability and puncher's chance but sees Usman as the superior technician. He expects a decision win, similar to the first fight, and thinks the -425 price is fair but not a value bet.
The MMA Guru picks Kamaru Usman by decision. He notes that Usman had a full camp for Masvidal this time, unlike the short-notice first fight, and that Usman's striking has improved under Trevor Whitman. He believes Usman's grappling is too good and that Masvidal hasn't made significant improvements. He predicts Usman will win with a possible 10-8 round, though Masvidal may take the first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamaru Usman | 2 | 83 of 136 | 61% | 93 of 149 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 45 of 108 | 41% | 55 of 124 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 31 of 53 | 58% | 40 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 22 of 56 | 39% | 32 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kamaru Usman | 1 | 39 of 65 | 60% | 40 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 21 of 50 | 42% | 21 of 51 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Kamaru Usman | 1 | 13 of 18 | 72% | 13 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamaru Usman | 83 of 136 | 61% | 56 of 105 | 11 of 15 | 16 of 16 | 54 of 100 | 3 of 4 | 26 of 32 |
| Gilbert Burns | 45 of 108 | 41% | 18 of 75 | 13 of 14 | 14 of 19 | 44 of 104 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kamaru Usman | 31 of 53 | 58% | 10 of 31 | 8 of 9 | 13 of 13 | 13 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 16 |
| Gilbert Burns | 22 of 56 | 39% | 12 of 43 | 7 of 7 | 3 of 6 | 21 of 52 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kamaru Usman | 39 of 65 | 60% | 33 of 57 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 39 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 21 of 50 | 42% | 6 of 32 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 12 | 21 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kamaru Usman | 13 of 18 | 72% | 13 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 16 |
| Gilbert Burns | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The welterweight championship will go to the winner of the UFC 258 headliner, as “The Nigerian Nightmare” Usman (17-1, 12-0 UFC) tries to make it 13 wins in 13 appearances against the exceptionally dangerous “Durinho” Burns (19-3, 12-3 UFC). This rare high-stakes tilt between teammates will draw oversight from referee Herb Dean, and surprisingly, there is no glove touch between the two as they share a very intense stare down. Burns rushes in with a home run right hand, and Usman sees it coming and bats it away. Burns loads up on a few leg kicks, and lets go with a heavy body kick. Burns nails Usman with a huge right hand, and Usman drops to a knee. Usman recovers, get stung with an overhand right again, and he is still hurt. Usman fires back, and he clips Burns, but the Brazilian is ready to keep throwing. Burns lets loose a head kick that Usman eats flush, and he falls to his back. Usman does not oblige him by jumping into the submission magician’s guard, and instead stands above and kicks at Burns’ thigh. Burns threatens with upkicks and straight kicks to the knee, and the two are stalled out in this kicking situation. Usman picks up Burns’ leg and scores a series of thudding kicks to the thigh. Usman dives down to land a flush right hand, and Burns’ confident face shifts to one of concern. When Burns springs up, he greets Usman with a knee on the chin. Usman reaches out with a jab, and he lands two more while Burns comes up short with a few of his own. Burns stings the champ with a left hand, and Usman reacts every time he takes one. Usman hacks at the leg with a kick, and Burns gives him one back. Usman drops in a body kick and a low kick, and the two trade these low strikes. Burns gets off a right hand over the top, and Usman takes it flush and lands a few stern jabs. The Brazilian lets fly a head kick, and shoots in for a takedown after his leg lands. Usman pushes him away and blocks a subsequent head kick. Burns connects with a right hand, and a few strikes follow suit in a strong combination from Burns. Usman fires back, and when the horn sounds, the two welterweights smile at one another before bumping fists.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Round 2
Burns marches out of his corner to throw bombs, and Usman absorbs a few punches and stumbles as he walks back. Usman tries to recover some ground with several jabs, and he steps out of the way of a leg kick. A piston-like jab finds its home on Burns’ jaw, and the Brazilian retaliates with a head kick. Usman keeps sticking out the jab, allowing Burns to kick his lead leg out. Usman keeps focused landing the jab practically at will, and Burns diversifies his striking game with body kicks, leg kicks, long punches and other strikes that reach the target. Usman stays composed with repeated jabs, and Burns hurts him with an overhand right. Usman fires back with a right hand that is not quite as substantial. Burns rushes forward with a triple jab, and he gets jabbed a few times to break up a heavy combination. Usman winds up with a monster right hand, and Burns drops to a knee. “Durinho” is hurt badly, and Usman drills him with a few more punches as Burns falls against the fence. Usman stuffs a takedown to jab up Burns’ face, and he follows the jabs with several overhand rights that do more damage. Burns’ nose is marked up, and he is resorting to throwing haymakers while Usman marches him down and touches him with the jab. Burns swings with a big right hand, and Usman blocks it only to return fire with a leg kick. Burns successfully lands a pair of punches, and a retaliatory jab from Usman drops Burns to the canvas. Usman tells Burns to stand up, and Dean allows him to do so. Burns, light on his feet, kicks the leg as he circles on the outside. Usman keeps landing jabs, and he eats a pair of big punches to roll with them and land his own strikes. Usman slaps a loud leg kick home, and Burns ducks a jab to attempt a takedown. As Usman lands a few more jabs, the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Round 3
Burns takes the center of the cage to begin the round, reaching out with long punches and a leg kick. Usman fires off a straight jab from the southpaw stance, and Burns crashes down to the ground hard. Dean rushes in to nearly stop the fight, and the champ leaps down to deliver some nasty ground-and-pound to try to finish the job. Burns rolls through it as he keeps taking punishment, but Usman does not let up. As Burns falls to his back, he is hurt and in a bad way, and “The Nigerian Nightmare” keeps pouring it on. Punch after devastating punch crashes into Burns’ face, and Dean has seen enough as Burns is no longer intelligently defending himself. Usman confidently strides in front of the camera and asks, “Who is taking what from who?” The champ is now a perfect 13-0 inside the Octagon, tying the active UFC win streak record with current lightweight king Khabib Nurmagomedov. What a performance for the champion, who overcame perhaps the stiffest adversity of his UFC career to record an incredibly impressive victory. After the official decision, the two friends and training partners share a long embrace, as Burns lets loose all of his emotions inside the cage. With UFC 258 in the books, the UFC will carry on next week with a Fight Night card in a long string of events until the end of March.
The Official Result
Kamaru Usman def. Gilbert Burns R3 0:34 via TKO (Punches)
Big Brady picks Kamaru Usman to win by decision. He believes Usman has more paths to victory, including controlling the fight against the cage and using his wrestling. He notes that Burns' level of competition is lower and that Usman's takedown defense is perfect. He thinks Burns' only path is a submission, but Usman hasn't been submitted in over a decade. He expects a boring fight but a clear win for Usman.
Daniel Levi picks Kamaru Usman to win by decision, citing Usman's relentless work rate and output. He notes that Usman lands far more strikes than Burns (e.g., 175 vs Colby, 130 vs RDA) and questions Burns' ability to maintain pace over five rounds. He acknowledges Burns' power and submission threat but believes Usman's pressure and cardio will wear him down. He also mentions the former teammate dynamic and that Burns must have fight-changing moments to win.
The host believes Usman is the better fighter with superior wrestling, pace, pressure, and strength. He notes that Burns' impressive run includes wins over an aging Tyron Woodley and a past-prime Demian Maia, and that Burns has never faced pressure like Usman's. He expects Usman to drown Burns in the later rounds with his cardio and clinch work, predicting a decision victory.
The Guru picks Gilbert Burns as a significant underdog, calling it a 50/50 fight that should not have such wide odds. He believes Burns has better stand-up and grappling technique, dangerous knockout power, and the advantage of training with Usman's former teammates at Sanford MMA who know his weaknesses. He also notes Usman's recent broken nose and recovery issues. He predicts Burns will catch Usman in an exchange and win by TKO in the first or second round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 94 of 151 | 62% | 263 of 341 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 0 | 0 | 16:38 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 0 | 66 of 125 | 52% | 88 of 157 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 25 of 50 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:36 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 0 | 24 of 43 | 55% | 34 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 27 of 32 | 84% | 94 of 107 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 0 | 20 of 32 | 62% | 21 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 46 of 61 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:14 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 17 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 23 of 31 | 74% | 75 of 90 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 3:37 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 0 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 23 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:31 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 0 | 4 of 16 | 25% | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamaru Usman | 94 of 151 | 62% | 43 of 96 | 49 of 53 | 2 of 2 | 42 of 86 | 39 of 49 | 13 of 16 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 66 of 125 | 52% | 23 of 69 | 29 of 39 | 14 of 17 | 38 of 90 | 27 of 34 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kamaru Usman | 18 of 40 | 45% | 7 of 27 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 30 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 2 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 24 of 43 | 55% | 13 of 28 | 5 of 9 | 6 of 6 | 16 of 32 | 7 of 10 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Kamaru Usman | 27 of 32 | 84% | 10 of 15 | 17 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 14 | 16 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 20 of 32 | 62% | 5 of 16 | 11 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 10 of 21 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kamaru Usman | 14 of 27 | 51% | 10 of 23 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 14 | 2 of 5 | 6 of 8 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 12 of 19 | 63% | 2 of 8 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Kamaru Usman | 23 of 31 | 74% | 9 of 15 | 13 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 14 | 14 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 6 of 15 | 40% | 2 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Kamaru Usman | 12 of 21 | 57% | 7 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 6 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 4 of 16 | 25% | 1 of 8 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 3 | 2 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Kamaru Usman by comfortable decision, citing Usman's wrestling and takedowns as the key. He notes Masvidal has been taken down often and Usman is a smart fighter who won't stand and trade. He thinks the line should be wider and Masvidal's only chance is a knockout off his back, which is unlikely.
Daniel Levi leans toward Kamaru Usman, citing his full camp, size, wrestling, and cardio. He expects Usman to use a clinch-heavy, grinding game plan to wear down Masvidal. However, he acknowledges Masvidal's momentum and power, and says he wouldn't be surprised by an upset. He picks Usman by decision, but as a fan he roots for Masvidal.
Usman is a nightmare matchup for Masvidal with his relentless pace, pressure, cardio, and wrestling. Masvidal's only chance is a Hail Mary strike, but Usman's striking is good enough to close the distance and implement his grappling. The line at -225 is great value; Usman should dominate and win by decision. This is the lock of the night.
The Guru is confident Usman wins, predicting he will maul Masvidal. He notes that Masvidal has a 25% chance of landing something big in the first round but doesn't see it happening. He emphasizes Usman's size, wrestling, and the fact that Masvidal is taking the fight on short notice.
Gilbert Burns - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 40 of 92 | 43% | 42 of 94 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Mike Malott | 2 | 56 of 121 | 46% | 56 of 121 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gilbert Burns | 0 | 11 of 38 | 28% | 12 of 39 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mike Malott | 0 | 13 of 34 | 38% | 13 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Gilbert Burns | 0 | 23 of 37 | 62% | 24 of 38 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mike Malott | 0 | 22 of 53 | 41% | 22 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Gilbert Burns | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 6 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Mike Malott | 2 | 21 of 34 | 61% | 21 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Burns | 40 of 92 | 43% | 16 of 60 | 10 of 12 | 14 of 20 | 39 of 89 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Malott | 56 of 121 | 46% | 51 of 112 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 44 of 103 | 1 of 4 | 11 of 14 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gilbert Burns | 11 of 38 | 28% | 3 of 26 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 5 | 10 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Malott | 13 of 34 | 38% | 10 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 32 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Gilbert Burns | 23 of 37 | 62% | 11 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 11 | 23 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Malott | 22 of 53 | 41% | 21 of 48 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 22 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Gilbert Burns | 6 of 17 | 35% | 2 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Malott | 21 of 34 | 61% | 20 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 14 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Malott (-375); Burns (+275)
Round 1
The year is 2026, and the UFC has elected to put a fighter in Burns (22-9, 15-9 UFC) on a four-fight losing streak in a main event. He will be placed in hostile territory, perhaps set up as a stepping stone. Ready to prove that he still has plenty left in the tank, he comes to blows with proud Canadian Malott (13-2-1, 6-1 UFC). Whether a passing of the torch moment or one that shows levels to the game, referee Herb Dean will be here for them every step of the way. He brings them together to issue final instructions, and they share a fist bump. It’s on with the show.
Burns lashes out with a leg kick, and Malott sees it coming and brings his leg in to partially check it. Burns kicks off, and his foot bounces into the cup. Malott adjusts his groin and tells Dean he is good to continue, so they do not pause. Malott chases Burns to the cage behind a pair of punches, and he leans over to let a massive overhand right from the Brazilian buzz behind his neck. Burns whiffs on two more big hooks, but his digging left to the liver gets in twice. Malott swings back hard enough to make Burns think twice about coming in recklessly, and he goes for a takedown only to get stood up. Malott resets and sticks out four punches. Burns fights off a takedown shot, lets Malott hit the ground and bounce back up, and fires out a kick that pounds into his foe’s pectoral. Malott calmly jabs and rolls with the right hand he knows is coming.
Burns kicks at the front leg and is backed off with a left hand, and he defends the uppercuts and wings a right hand as Malott bends over. Burns ducks down for a takedown shot, and he bails it to loose two haymakers that hit nothing but air. Malott times a straight right hand down Broadway as Burns is aiming a leg kick, giving chase as Burns circles away. Burns shoots again, and the Canadian is a stone wall and does not give an inch. Burns backs off and bounces on his heels, tossing out a left hook that brushes the nose. Both men let fly heavy hooks, and Burns follows his land with a chopping kick. Malott looks for a hefty counter, and Burns evades it but cannot get out of the way of a calf kick. Malott leaps forward to land a body kick on the abdomen, landing to sling two hooks behind it. Burns tries to jump for an attack of his own, but time expires while he is in the air so he just lands normally.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Round 2
The two men bump fists before getting after it. Burns nails the front leg with a kick so hard, Malott drops to a knee. His calf is glowing red just a few seconds into the second round, and Burns is aware of this and does not go after it recklessly. Instead, Burns sets up the kick with blows to other targets. As he is backed off from a one-two, a thin trickle of blood leaks out of the Brazilian’s nostril, who shoots for a takedown that is stopped in its tracks. Burns rebounds to kick the inner leg of his foe, and he drills a right hand on the side of Malott’s head. Burns kicks low to punch high again, even leaping with a Superman punch. Malott backs him off behind his fists, even as Burns loops a left hand back at him. Burns scores with one more hard calf kick and a left hand after it. Malott splits his guard with an uppercut and appears to shake Burns up, who retreats in a hurry. A shiner and some blood immediately develops under Burns’ left eye, as he backs off to defend himself while Malott goes on the offensive. Malott rips uppercuts and loops his right hand around the guard, staying in range just long enough to land but not leaving himself open for Burns’ big swings.
Burns wears the strikes well but is showing damage all over, and he cannot quite secure the home run blow he is seeking. Malott sneaks in an uppercut, and Burns counters with an overhand right and waves Malott on for more. When Malott does not bite, Burns shoots for a takedown. Malott shucks him to the side and sticks a jab in his face, staying calm and composed. Malott beats Burns to the punch and forces him to spin away with a left hook. Both men lunge at one another with power, but nothing significant lands as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Round 3
Burns takes directly to the center of the cage to engage, doubling up on a jab to sling his big right hand. Malott shies away from the heavy blow and circles around to give chase to Burns. After almost 30 seconds of staring, Burns swings for the bleachers with his right hand twice. Malott laughs them off and sprawls smoothly to defuse the takedown attempt before anything comes of it. Malott backs Burns to the fence with his long, straight punches, staying at his preferred distance to not get caught with the counter. Burns tries and fails to bash him with his right hand, but he leaves himself wide open for an uppercut and a left hook that puts Burns down hard. Burns climbs back up but is compromised, leading to Malott knocking him down again with a blistering right hand. Burns hits his side and is not about to go anywhere, so Malott hammers the nail with a final onslaught of concussive fists that force Dean to step in. The crowd, understandably, goes wild. Malott has earned the biggest win of his career in his most significant fight to date, and he does it by knockout after going toe-to-toe with a powerful striker. Canada may not have won the night in terms of individual matchups, going 4-5 throughout the billing, but Malott prevailed when it mattered most.
The logjam of the welterweight title picture has yet another contender, and as this sport gives, it also takes. A heartbroken “Durinho” leaves his gloves in the center of the cage to signal his retirement, overcome by emotion but still more than willing to give it up for the man that just put him down. The respectful victor has nothing but positive things to say about his opponent, his team and his fans. He does not have any opponent set as he hopes to work his way up the ladder, instead saying he will do so the “Proper” way. When he competes again, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Mike Malott def. Gilbert Burns R3 2:08 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Mike Malott with extreme confidence, calling Gilbert Burns too old, slow, and not durable. He notes Gilbert is on a four-fight losing streak and has not submitted anyone recently. He recommends parlaying Malott heavily, saying the odds are too wide and should be much higher.
Big Brady hesitantly picks Mike Malott, despite calling him overrated. He criticizes Malott's takedown defense, questionable cardio, and low volume, but notes his power. Brady also doubts Gilbert Burns' durability and age (40). He predicts Malott wins by second-round knockout but says he will not bet on the fight.
Cody picks Gilbert Burns because he sees value in the plus money and questions Mike Malott's cardio in later rounds. He notes that Burns has fought top competition and that Malott has never been past three rounds. He also mentions that the line movement towards Burns supports his pick.
Daniel believes Mike Malott is catching Gilbert Burns at a great time, as Burns is nearly 40 and on a decline. He thinks Malott's explosiveness and freshness will be key, and that Burns will show signs of aging when hit. He predicts Malott will finish Burns.
Burns is a value underdog despite being older and on a losing streak. Malott fades in later rounds and has shown weakness on the ground. Burns has excellent grappling and cardio for five rounds. If Burns survives the early rounds, he can take over. The odds are too wide; this fight is closer to 50/50.
James believes the line is too wide and that Gilbert Burns has value as a plus 425 underdog. He thinks Burns can weather the early storm and take over in later rounds due to his experience and cardio. Despite picking Malott as the pure winner, he confidently sides with Burns for the moneyline.
The host mentions the main event but does not make a pick for either fighter. He only notes that Gilbert Burns has been bet down from a massive underdog to a big underdog.
The host believes Mike Malott will land a big shot and put Gilbert Burns away, but does not like the chalk on Malott. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds as the best way to play the matchup, expecting pocket exchanges and a striking battle. He notes Burns' age and four-fight losing streak, and thinks Malott's power will be the difference.
Paul also picks Gilbert Burns, citing the same concerns about Malott's cardio and the value on Burns. He mentions he has a bet on Burns at plus 316 and likes late round props. He believes Burns can win if the fight goes into the later rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 5 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Michael Morales | 2 | 33 of 56 | 58% | 35 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gilbert Burns | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 5 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Michael Morales | 2 | 33 of 56 | 58% | 35 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Burns | 5 of 18 | 27% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Morales | 33 of 56 | 58% | 31 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 25 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gilbert Burns | 5 of 18 | 27% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Morales | 33 of 56 | 58% | 31 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 25 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 9 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Morales (-850), Burns (+575)
Round 1
In keeping with the theme of fights that promise action and intensity, the main event should be just what the doctor ordered. Former title challenger Burns (22-8, 15-8 UFC) may have his best days behind him, but “Durinho” is still as dangerous at it comes at 170 pounds. To keep himself in top contention, he will need to deflate the momentum of Morales (17-0, 5-0 UFC), who would like nothing more than to have a breakout performance at the expense of the vaunted grappler. Referee Herb Dean brings these two to the center of the cage to issue final instructions, and they stoically bump fists to seal the cage and make things official. It’s time for some action. It is Morales who claims the center of the Monster Logo on the floor, while Burns circles around him. Burns circles away from the power side of the Ecuadorian, and he lets loose a low kick that slaps loudly. When Morales retaliates with a calf kick, it is a thudding sound. Burns leaps forward to strike, and Morales dances out of the way and punches him around the back of the ear. Burns launches a kick up high, and Morales parries and lobs a jab back. Burns throws a fastball of a right hand that is well off the mark, but his check left hook does catch the chin. Morales lines up a heavy right hand that back off Burns, and he gets clipped by the older man. Burns marches him down looping hooks, and Morales rolls with the punches and jabs his way forward. Burns counters and takes a few more jabs on the nose, and he absorbs a thumping kick on his calf. Morales connects with a crisp uppercut, shaking up the grappler and forcing him to shoot for a takedown. Morales is dragged to his seat for a moment, and Burns wraps his arms around him as Morales stands. Burns leans in close and tight, but Morales pushes him back and unloads with power punches. Morales knocks Burns back to the wall courtesy of a clubbing right hand, and his onslaught slowly breaks Burns down and puts him on the ground.
Dean calls for Burns to fight back, and Burns answers by ducking under and grabbing his foe's legs awkwardly for some kind of desperation takedown. Morales steps over it, allows Burns to stand and lays into him with a blistering salvo of bombarding fists that puts “Durinho” down for the count again. This time, as Dean observes that Burns’ face is bleeding and he is in a bad way, he waves the fight off.
Burns sits up, but he does not protest, knowing that the day is not his. Morales has just passed the biggest test of his career with flying colors, destroying a durable top talent in the first round and not looking back. When Burns gets back to his feet, he needs a minute to recover, but he embraces the man who ran through him like no one has at 170 pounds. The 25-year-old handles the huge moment with poise, dedicating the victory to his mother and thanking her for her advice while declaring that he is ready for the next challenge, whatever that may be. Morales says he is healthy and ready to go, so with any luck, he will be back in the cage at least one more time this year. When he fights next, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Michael Morales def. Gilbert Burns R1 3:39 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Michael Morales confidently, citing that Morales is a better wrestler, striker, bigger, faster, stronger, and younger than Gilbert Burns. He notes that Burns is on the wrong side of 35 and coming off a loss to Sean Brady where his grappling was neutralized. Angelo questions what game plan Burns could have, as Morales is a national wrestling champion and Burns was just knocked out. He is shocked Morales is only -600 and expects the line to close at -1000.
Big Brady picks Michael Morales, citing Burns' age (38), three-fight skid, and declining durability. He notes Morales is a much better striker with volume and power, and expects him to find Burns' chin. He predicts a second-round knockout.
The host thinks Morales is a huge favorite but not justified given Burns' strength of schedule; Burns' three-fight losing streak came against top competition. He gives Burns the benefit of the doubt as a championship gatekeeper but worries if Burns can't dictate pace or get takedowns, his cardio fades and Morales can take over and knock him out. He picks Morales to win by knockout, but notes minus 800 is tough to get behind. He also leans under 3.5 rounds.
The Guru picks Michael Morales, calling him a crazy natural athlete who controls distance well and switches stances. He thinks Burns is past his prime and lacks the grit to engage, citing the Sean Brady fight where Burns didn't let his hands go. He believes the five-round fight benefits Morales' picking style and predicts a decision win (49-46). He notes the -850 odds are insane and thinks Morales is not that good, but still picks him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Brady | 0 | 47 of 97 | 48% | 76 of 126 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 130 of 217 | 59% | 274 of 368 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 10:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Brady | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 58 of 79 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:15 | |
| 2 | Sean Brady | 0 | 8 of 20 | 40% | 12 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 33 of 54 | 61% | 59 of 81 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 | |
| 3 | Sean Brady | 0 | 17 of 27 | 62% | 29 of 39 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 19 of 38 | 50% | 77 of 97 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:26 | |
| 4 | Sean Brady | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 10 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 24 of 34 | 70% | 44 of 54 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:48 | |
| 5 | Sean Brady | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 18 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 31 of 49 | 63% | 36 of 57 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Brady | 47 of 97 | 48% | 25 of 72 | 19 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 32 of 80 | 15 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 130 of 217 | 59% | 97 of 179 | 12 of 16 | 21 of 22 | 118 of 202 | 11 of 13 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Brady | 6 of 14 | 42% | 2 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 23 of 42 | 54% | 17 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 39 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sean Brady | 8 of 20 | 40% | 5 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 33 of 54 | 61% | 24 of 43 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 50 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sean Brady | 17 of 27 | 62% | 9 of 19 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 19 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 19 of 38 | 50% | 16 of 32 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 32 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Sean Brady | 7 of 16 | 43% | 5 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 24 of 34 | 70% | 17 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 6 | 24 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Sean Brady | 9 of 20 | 45% | 4 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 31 of 49 | 63% | 23 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 7 | 30 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brady (-185), Burns (+154)
Round 1
With the welterweight title picture in flux thanks to a glut of contenders, the winner of this main event might need to get one more victory after tonight to get a crack at gold. Nevertheless, it is a big one at 170 pounds as former title challenger Burns (22-7, 15-7 UFC) looks to show that age is nothing but a number at 38 years young when he throws down with much younger grappler Brady (16-1, 6-1 UFC). This bout could take place anywhere, and it likely will go everywhere before it is all settled. Referee Herb Dean will hand the particulars for the headliner, and he brings the fighters together to respectfully touch gloves. It’s on with the show. Brady strikes first in the form of an inside low kick. Burns jumps forward with a knee that does not come up, and he backs off as Brady slaps him with another leg kick. Brady attacks the same spot with his kick once more, and he punches his way into a combination of fists that makes Burns smile at him. Burns lunges with a left hook, and Brady backs him off with a handful of punches. Brady scoops an uppercut through the guard, and he interrupts an advancing Burns with a straight left. Burns lets loose a few hooks, and Brady is wise to them and counters the Brazilian with a quicker combo. Burns times a punch to shoot in for a double, and he deposits the Philadelphia native to his seat. Brady climbs back to his feet thanks to the wall behind him, and they trade knees in the clinch as Brady walks Burns from one side of the cage to the other. Brady uppercuts on the break, and he races forward landing a series of punches that Burns largely blocks. Brady considers changing levels, but the Brazilian stops it from going anywhere. Brady gets in a short uppercut, and they trade knees on the inside in a clinch. Burns spins him about and looks for a single, allowing Brady to knee him in the face. Brady trips Burns up, and Burns topples to his knee, jumps back up and lashes out with an elbow that is inches away from his intended target. Brady reaches with longer punches than Burns is throwing, and he backs Burns up with a chain of strikes and pushes him to the chain links. Brady lifts Burns up and sets him on the mat, and Burns is quick to wall-walk to get upright. Brady hangs on from the side, tripping Burns up but not grounding him with a mat return effort. Burns spins out with seconds to spare, kneeing Brady once before the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 2
Burns absorbs a clean body kick to start the round, and he responds with an overhand right that sends Brady flying into the wall. Burns leaps after him, but is grabbed and spun around in the clinch. Brady drops down for a double, and his first try lifts Burns up but does not put him on his back. Brady knees the Brazilian in the thigh a few times until Burns turns him about, and they break up. Brady gets off a trio of one-twos, and Burns walks through them and pushes out his own jab. Brady lands three punches in rapid succession, and he takes another hard right hand as Burns surges into action. After taking another powerful punch on the chin, Brady gets hold of the clinch. Burns wraps a right hand over the guard on the break, and he winds up with two more power hooks that Brady ducks and tries to counter with wrestling. Burns spins him to the fence, but he lets go so he can punch Brady in the face. Brady hits a takedown, and Burns scrambles, spins him around and dumps Brady to a knee. Burns grabs Brady from behind as Brady leans against the wall, and Brady fights out of the grip and uses a jab. Brady lands a jab and a low kick, and he lands another leg kick on the inside. Brady swarms forward with punches, clubbing Burns on the side of the head around the guard. Brady rifles off three quick punches, and he ducks a right hand to double up on a jab. Burns loads up on his power hook, and Brady is more accurate and far more active. They shadowbox until the round wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 3
The welterweights meet in the middle, and Brady’s jabs are the first blows to lead off the round. Burns responds with a low kick and a body kick, and he dings Brady on the nose with a right hand. Brady chains several punches together in response until Burns ties him up. Burns is spun around and eats several body shots, and he gives one back before Brady goes after a single. Burns pulls his leg out and puts his guard up to defend the attack from Brady. Brady goes for a takedown, and Burns spins him around and throws him to his knees. Burns lets fly a pair of huge hooks, and Brady thanks his lucky stars he did not absorb them flush. Brady splits the guard with an uppercut, and he walks face-first into a right hand that stuns him. Brady still has the wherewithal to power forward into the clinch, and he considers a level change until Burns spins him about and attacks a single. Brady hops back to remain on his feet, and they split apart after some dirty boxing. Brady charges forward to go after a single, and Burns pushes on the back of Brady’s neck to stifle it. Burns gets a bit of space and throws punches, but it is an elbow on the inside when Brady comes towards him that does some damage. Burns lays into Brady’s body with knees, and Brady backs away. Burns slips a jab and counters with a right hand, and he turns to his side when Burns takes him down. Burns tags him with an overhand right on the standup, and Brady explodes through to scoop the Brazilian up with a double and loudly dumps Burns to the floor. Burns pushes off and defends himself until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 4
The two reach the championship rounds, and they share a fist bump to kick off the fourth frame. Brady paws out a few jabs, and he offers out a leg kick that bumps into Burns’ cup. Dean calls time, and Burns walks away to lean on the fence and recover. Burns takes a minute to get his wind back, and the two share another fist bump. Burns whips a kick to the body as Brady comes at him, and this time Burns has kicked Brady in the groin. As Dean calls time again, Brady falls to his knees in pain, and he takes a little bit and winks at the camera. Brady paces back and forth until another minute elapses, and Dean tells them to please keep it clean. On the next restart, Brady kicks the lead leg on the outside and then twice on the inside. Burns kicks the front leg once, and Brady fires right back. Brady releases a solid body kick, and he plants his left hand on Burns’ chin when setting down. Brady drives a few jabs through the guard, and Burns clubs him behind the ear and makes him stumble. Burns ducks a jab to respond with another heavy right hand, and Brady knows it is coming and still has to shake it off. Brady rushes at him with six punches in a row, resulting in a clinch. As Brady keeps Burns against the fence, he holds his fingers in the links, and he is warned for it. Burns gets a little space and knees Brady in the face and releases a right hand on the side of the dome. They break apart to reset, and Brady punches his way into a single that lands and puts Burns on his seat. Burns defends with a guillotine choke and uses it to work his way to his feet, only for Brady to sling him down with a mat return. Burns responds with a leglock, and Brady scrambles enough but gives up his back. Burns rolls through and keeps hold of Brady’s back in a grappling exchange, and they stand up with Burns behind him. Burns lifts Brady up and slams him down, and Brady climbs back up after landing on his face. Burns cannot get the takedown again before the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 5
The two touch gloves to start off the last round, and even though Brady might be ahead in terms of raw numbers, it might still be anyone’s fight. Brady adds to his totals when it commences with a stream of punches, and Burns ducks away and has his front leg kicked. Burns wings a right hand over the top, and Brady pecks at him from a safer distance with jabs and leg kicks. Burns winds up with a right hand that gets Brady’s attention, and Brady steels himself to throw hands and rushes into a legal knee where the foot lifts and bounces into the cup. Dean calls time and checks the replay to make sure it struck Brady’s groin, and Brady takes 50 seconds before resuming. They get back to it with a brief firefight, throwing hard at one another. Brady doubles up on leg kicks, and he also sticks out a double jab and a right hand. Burns slams his low kick home, and he leaps at Brady and cracks him in the chin with his knee. A shocked Brady turns him around and goes after the single, but Burns is a stone wall. Burns pushes Brady back and wings a right hand that brushes past the hair. Brady shoots for a high single and lifts Burns up to dump him to the floor. Brady peels precious time off the clock as he maintains ground control, until Burns threatens with an omoplata that he uses to turn himself around and work his way to his feet. Brady trips Burns out and slams him to the floor like a sack of potatoes, landing in half guard for a moment before Burns pushes off his chest. Burns turns to grab hold of a leglock, and Brady smartly turns through it and lowers himself back down to not let Burns get any extension on it. Burns works to his feet only to get muscled down to the mat, and when time expires, Brady collapses to the floor in exhaustion. This brings to a close an intriguing back-and-forth battle that answered a slew of questions for the resurgent Brady, including how he can perform in a five-rounder. While the top of welterweight is a mess, the Brady victory likely puts on the shortlist of top contenders. Brady knows that a title fight may not be the immediate next challenge for him, so he calls for anyone in the top five or the unbeaten Ian Garry—the latter Brady says could work because they share the same management. If that matchup comes together, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady (48-47 Brady)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Brady (50-45 Brady)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady (50-45 Brady)
The Official Result
Sean Brady def. Gilbert Burns via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
Angelo picks Sean Brady because he is bigger, has good takedowns and Jiu-Jitsu, and is coming off a dominant win over Kelvin Gastelum. He questions how Gilbert Burns can win, noting Burns' small size, 50% takedown defense, and 38% takedown accuracy. He believes Brady's new-generation black belt will be too much for Burns, though he acknowledges Burns could control on top if he gets takedowns.
Big Brady picks Sean Brady to win by decision but admits he doesn't have a ton of confidence. He notes Burns is 38 and talking retirement, while Brady is 31 and improving. Brady thinks Brady's wrestling could win minutes and he might hurt Burns, but acknowledges Burns' phenomenal grappling and underrated striking. He expects a decision.
Cody argues that Burns is the better striker with proven five-round experience, while Brady has poor cardio and striking volume. He notes Brady gassed against Belal Muhammad and relies solely on takedowns, which Burns' 80% takedown defense can neutralize. Despite concerns about Burns' age and coaching distractions, he sees value at +150 and picks Burns as a dog, but admits it's a rollercoaster and not a high-confidence play.
Cody picks Michael Morales, noting that Morales is 25, undefeated, and improving each fight. He expects Morales to take over as the fight goes into later rounds due to his youth and cardio advantage. Cody also mentions the reach advantage and judo background of Morales, and suggests live betting or over totals rather than laying -800.
Daniel believes Brady is catching Burns at the perfect time, as Burns is 38 and coming off two losses (to Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena). He notes Brady's improved mindset after losing his undefeated record, and his strong performance against Kelvin Gastelum, where he showed heart and cardio. Daniel thinks Brady's physical strength and short, stocky frame will make him hard to submit, and that Brady can tire Burns out and potentially have success on the feet.
Brady is younger and should dictate the pace with wrestling and clinch work. Burns is 38 and on a two-fight losing streak, often gassing in later rounds. Brady can wear Burns down and finish in the third or fourth round. The only hesitation is that it's Brady's first five-round fight, but he is still favored.
Paul acknowledges Burns' cardio issues and recent decline, noting he gassed against Jack Della Maddalena and seems to have lost his grappling edge. He sees Brady's path via takedowns and control, especially in a five-round fight where Burns' cardio is a bigger liability. However, he is hesitant because he has never been a Sean Brady fan and dislikes the -175 price. He ultimately picks Brady but with low confidence, calling it a 'gun to my head' pick.
Paul picks Gilbert Burns as a dog, taking a small poke on Burns by submission at +1800. He acknowledges Burns is likely washed but sees value in the prop given Burns' submission history and the possibility of catching Morales. Paul admits he doesn't expect to win but likes the long odds.
The MMA Guru picks Sean Brady over Gilbert Burns. He cites the age difference (Burns is 38) and notes Brady has improved massively. He mentions Brady's wins over Kelvin Gastelum and Jake Matthews, and that he neutralized Craig Jones in grappling. He criticizes Burns' recent performance against JDM, arguing Burns didn't do enough. He believes Brady's size and strength will allow him to stall on the ground and win a slow-paced decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 27 of 58 | 46% | 31 of 63 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 0 | 0 | 5:07 |
| Gilbert Burns | 1 | 67 of 123 | 54% | 85 of 146 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 18 of 35 | 51% | 20 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:15 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 18 of 38 | 47% | 23 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 11 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 21 of 48 | 43% | 27 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:13 |
| Gilbert Burns | 1 | 28 of 37 | 75% | 35 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena | 27 of 58 | 46% | 16 of 43 | 8 of 11 | 3 of 4 | 23 of 52 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
| Gilbert Burns | 67 of 123 | 54% | 54 of 104 | 9 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 47 of 100 | 4 of 6 | 16 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Della Maddalena | 18 of 35 | 51% | 9 of 23 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 14 of 29 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
| Gilbert Burns | 18 of 38 | 47% | 13 of 33 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 34 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jack Della Maddalena | 9 of 20 | 45% | 7 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 21 of 48 | 43% | 15 of 36 | 5 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 28 of 37 | 75% | 26 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 17 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-162), Burns (+136)
Round 1
The deep card continues with a potential thriller at 170 pounds between a striker and a grappler who loves to bang. Former lightweight and Mundials medalist Burns (22-6, 15-6 UFC) will try to derail the hype train and 16-fight win streak of talented Aussie Maddalena (16-2, 6-0 UFC), and referee Dan Miragliotta is as psyched as the fans are to see it go down. Ahead of their scheduled melee, the two men bump fists. Burns whips a low kick to find his distance, and Maddalena paws out a jab. Burns aims a kick to the body and then lead leg, and Maddalena jabs him back. Chants of “Gilbert” rain down in support of the Brazilian by way of Florida, and he does not go crazy when hearing it and stays composed to land punches and a body kick. Burns shoots for a takedown, and when Maddalena scrambles, he takes the back. Maddalena scrambles and turns, and Burns drags him down from behind to assume partial control of the back again. Maddalena once more explodes to his feet, and he is pushed back to the fence as Burns wants to relocate him to a more horizontal position. Burns aims a knee to the sternum hen the takedown is thwarted, and he drops down low for a single and lets it go to hang on. Maddalena counters with a throw and knees Burns in the face with a strike that was borderline, but it was uncalled as a potential foul, so they continue. Burns appears no worse for wear, but he is less aggressive than before as Maddalena sticks out several jabs and a low kick. Maddalena sneaks in and scores a right hand, and Burns kicks him in the ribs and comes up short with a booming right hand. Burns fires off another big right, and Maddalena sees it coming and boxes him back. Maddalena tags Burns with a left hand, and he leans back to dodge a head kick that flies past his noggin. Maddalena strings three left together to the head and then body, and Burns grits his teeth and swings back with bad intentions. Maddalena times an advancing Burns to nail him with a left hook, and Burns takes it well enough and jabs back. Burns wings a right hand that just misses, and Maddalena skim a right hand off the cheek. Burns again fires off an inaccurate head kick, and he crashes forward to engage and lands a right hand, backs off and kicks the body and lead leg. Maddalena darts in with two swiping lefts, and he defends against a takedown that puts him on his back. Burns sits up and drops down hammerfists, and he concludes the close round with a standing-to-ground right hand.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Round 2
Maddalena jabs early to lead off, and he prods out a front kick that Burns parries. Maddalena aims a left to the body as he doubles up on jabs, and he ducks when Burns counters with an overhand right. Burns swings hard, and Maddalena sees it coming and backs him away with a straight right hand. Burns kicks high, and he is the one that bounces back when hitting the guard. Maddalena dings his man with a punch, and Burns shoots for a single and moves Maddalena to the mat. Maddalena gets to a knee, and Burns clings to him from on top. Maddalena shrugs off a potential submission from the Brazilian to stand back upright, and they both land punches at the same time. Maddalena aims a left hand straight down the middle, and Burns throws back with a heavy right that draws some swelling. Maddalena dings “Durinho” with a one-two, and Burns throws back with the same and hops away to avoid an Anderson Silva-esque back elbow. Burns winds up and bounces a right hand on the forehead, and Maddalena crowds him and chains five punches together before pulling back. Maddalena leans back, scores and evades the counters. Maddalena connects with four punches before Burns escapes out the side, and Burns smiles and throws a big right hand. Maddalena slips and digs a right to the body. Burns blasts Maddalena in the face with a huge overhand right, and Maddalena frowns and gets taken down from a blast double. Maddalena turns to his knees, and he considers his own takedown but Burns easily stops it and drags him down with his arm wrapped around the neck. Burns steps into full mount, but Maddalena scrambles perfectly to get out. Burns takes the back as they keep moving, and he get hooks in and secures the body triangle. Burns sneaks an arm around the chin, but there is nothing there as Maddalena sticks his tongue out before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Round 3
The last round kicks off, and Maddalena is back to his jab. Burns strafes laterally, and stops as Maddalena kicks him in the chest. Maddalena scores a right, and he leaps forward with another as Burns continues to move. Burns kicks him in the head, and Maddalena counters him with several uppercuts that rock the Brazilian. Burns leans over, and after absorbing a few more, he shoots for a single to stop himself from taking damage. Maddalena elbows him once before rolling through to stop a takedown, and the elbow smashes the Brazilian’s nose open and blood leaks down his face. Burns wrenches him down to the floor from the side. Burns presses his full body weight on his opponent, and he disallows Maddalena from standing by isolating the right leg. Maddalena looks at the video to find a better way to get up, and Burns wraps arms around the waist and drags him down. Burns gets a hook in and uses his left arm to set up a rear-naked choke, but his other arm is busy so there is no submission in sight. Burns pushes through to advance position, and they both flip all the way over. Maddalena scurries back to his feet, and Burns follows and charges directly into about the cleanest knee one could ever offer. Burns falls to his back, and Maddalena lays into the damaged Burns with a long barrage of punches and elbows. As Maddalena puts more mustard on the elbows, Miragliotta watches closely and makes the decision to intervene and wave the fight off while Burns is staring blankly into space, detached from his senses. This is a huge comeback for the Aussie, who has now won 17 fights in a row while putting away the ultra-durable “Durinho.”
The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Gilbert Burns R3 3:43 via KO (Knee and Elbows)
Angelo picks Jack Della Maddalena, citing his high-volume striking and jab. He thinks Burns is past his prime and has been exposed by wrestlers. He believes Della Maddalena will piece Burns up on the feet and defend takedowns. He has a half-unit bet on Della Maddalena at -125.
Big Brady picks Jack Della Maddalena to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Della Maddalena has great striking and power, but has made grappling mistakes in the past. He believes Della Maddalena can keep the fight standing and finish Burns, though Burns could submit him if it goes to the mat. He acknowledges the fight could go either way.
Cody notes that Della Maddalena has been in close fights and could easily have lost, while Burns is a well-rounded grappler with a clear path to victory via takedowns. He thinks Burns's wrestling and experience will be too much for Della Maddalena.
Daniel is confident in Jack Della Maddalena, citing his superior boxing and underrated takedown defense. He notes that Burns has been dropped by jabs from Usman, Chimaev, and Muhammad, and that Jack has a nasty jab. Daniel acknowledges Burns's dangerous jiu-jitsu but believes Jack can avoid submissions by not getting carried away with guillotines like he did against Hiestand. He bet Jack at minus 135 and expects Jack to light Burns up and possibly knock him out.
Daniel Vreeland picks Jack Della Maddalena, stating he has never picked against him and doesn't plan to start. He acknowledges this is a big step up from fighting Kevin Holland to Gilbert Burns, and calls it a 'dog or pass' spot. Vreeland notes that Burns gets hit by good strikers, as seen against Kamaru Usman and Vicente Luque, and that Burns' path to victory is to grapple immediately. He believes the line should be closer to even money but still picks JDM.
Jeff Fox picks Jack Della Maddalena as well, echoing that he has never picked against him. He mentions that Burns is always in people's corners coaching, which may detract from his own training. Fox also notes that Burns gets hit by good strikers, citing the Kamaru Usman knockout. He believes JDM's youth and momentum are key, and that Burns' best chance is to take the fight to the ground immediately.
Della Maddalena is a far superior striker with excellent range management and takedown defense, as shown in his fight against Kevin Holland. Burns relies on takedowns to win, but at 38 years old and with declining athleticism, he may struggle to get the fight to the ground. Della Maddalena should dictate the pace in the striking realm and eventually land a knockout in the second or third round. Burns' BJJ is a threat, but Della Maddalena's improved awareness should keep him safe.
Paul agrees, pointing out that Della Maddalena has shown holes in his takedown defense and that Burns can exploit that. He also notes that Burns has a strong wrestling game and can win rounds by controlling position on the ground.
The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena, arguing he clearly beat Bassil Hafez and Kevin Holland. He believes JDM's striking defense is excellent and that he will stuff Burns' takedowns and tune him up on the feet with a jab. He notes Burns' tendency to bail on takedowns with guillotine attempts and predicts JDM will TKO Burns late in round one.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 0 | 132 of 283 | 46% | 132 of 283 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 81 of 147 | 55% | 81 of 147 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 19 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 15 of 31 | 48% | 15 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 18 of 51 | 35% | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 15 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 25 of 59 | 42% | 25 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 14 of 22 | 63% | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 28 of 54 | 51% | 28 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 16 of 23 | 69% | 16 of 23 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 42 of 80 | 52% | 42 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 21 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 132 of 283 | 46% | 92 of 241 | 39 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 132 of 283 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 81 of 147 | 55% | 35 of 96 | 13 of 16 | 33 of 35 | 81 of 147 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 19 of 39 | 48% | 9 of 29 | 9 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 15 of 31 | 48% | 7 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 15 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 18 of 51 | 35% | 11 of 44 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 15 of 28 | 53% | 6 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 10 | 15 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 25 of 59 | 42% | 20 of 53 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 14 of 22 | 63% | 7 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Belal Muhammad | 28 of 54 | 51% | 18 of 44 | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 16 of 23 | 69% | 6 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 16 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Belal Muhammad | 42 of 80 | 52% | 34 of 71 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 42 of 80 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 21 of 43 | 48% | 9 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 9 | 21 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Burns (-125), Muhammad (+105)
Round 1
A rarity in the promotion the last several years, the UFC is offering up an official “title eliminator” status for a fight. This comes at 170 pounds, between two excelling talents who are stringing win streaks together at the right time. While many believe Muhammad (22-3, 1 NC; 13-3, 1 NC UFC) should have gotten a title shot already, he will look to push his unbeaten streak to 10 when he collides with brick-fisted grappler Burns (22-5, 15-5 UFC). The two will have five rounds to work, even with no championship or main event status available. This short-notice tilt will receive oversight from referee Keith Peterson, and there is no nonsense or touching of gloves to start things off. Chants for “Let’s go, Burns” rain down immediately in the building, and Burns is spurred into action with a charging right hand. Muhammad absorbs a low kick and looks to find angles and get to Burns with his footwork. Muhammad ricochets a kick off his opponent’s raised guard, and he sneaks a left hand through it. Burns loads up on his power right hand, and Muhammad darts away and aims out a jab. Another solid right from the Brazilian connects square on the chin, and Muhammad backs off and eats a leg kick to follow. Burns flicks a kick up high off the raised guard, and he sneaks a right hand through. Muhammad retaliates with a shin to the ribs, and Burns intercepts a subsequent kick to tackle his man to the mat. Muhammad climbs right back up and strikes a few more kicks to the liver, and he dodges a swatting left hook. Muhammad stays composed and utilizes his jab effectively, mixing in kicks occasionally to stay busier. Burns comes up short on a winging hook, and he kicks the body. Muhammad counters with a straight left hand that staggers Burns, and Burns grits his teeth and slams his right fist into Muhammad’s jaw twice to make “Remember the Name” remember his power. Burns has a kick caught, and he scrambles out of the way before getting dumped to the floor. Burns goes up high with a kick, and Burns stumbles back right as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Round 2
The second frame kicks off as the two welterweights meet in the middle, and Burns strikes first with a stomping kick to the kneecap. Muhammad strafes to his right, and Burns follows him with a kick to the inside of the knee. Burns comes up short with a right hook, allowing Muhammad to sink in another liver kick. Burns chambers and fires a low kick and a massive right hand, and Muhammad’s beard absorbs it without much issue. Muhammad whips a high kick up, and he aims one to the body as Burns retaliates low to the inner calf. Burns paws away a one-two, and he gathers his thoughts to blast Muhammad in the face with a power right. Muhammad replies with a blocked head kick, and Burns hops around to shake it out. Muhammad is far less active, as Burns steps in with a right. The jabs from Muhammad are less constant, and Burns stings him with a right hand on the temple. Muhammad flashes his jab a few times, and Burns walks into one and storms forward. Muhammad times a body kick, and Burns gives him one to the calf back. Burns fires off a short right hand when Muhammad bears down on him, and he lets go with an inside low kick. Muhammad rips a kick to the side, and Burns surges into action and has a right hand slide off the shoulder. Burns lets fly a low kick, and he dodges a zipping left hand. Muhammad gives chase, and his fists collide with the guard. The slower round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Round 3
The round begins with a body kick from the Brazilian, and Muhammad retaliates with a front kick that grazes the cup. There is no pause, as Burns waves it off, and the crowd grows restless from the otherwise lack of action in the first minute. Muhammad gets off a jab or two, and Burns chambers his right hand and blocks a head kick. Burns gets off a single jab of his own, and he steps back from a looping punch. Burns kicks the lead leg a few times, and he stumbles when walking forward. Muhammad fires off a high kick that smacks into a shoulder, and Burns swings and misses wit ha haymaker. The pace is very deliberate and ineffective on both sides, and Muhammad throws two punches at a time if he can. Burns backs off, and Muhammad follows him with a head kick that bounces off the shoulder and a few straight punches. Burns tags him with a big right hand, and Muhammad shakes it off and sneaks a kick under Burns’ elbow. Burns steps in with a knee to the chest, and he gets kicked in the neck for his effort. The Brazilian appears no worse for wear, and he backs away when Muhammad jabs and front kicks at him. Burns throws a high body kick that smacks into the armpit, and Muhammad chains two kicks together with his left leg. Muhammad jabs quickly when Burns races forward, and he stays active with kicks. Muhammad gets into his groove of head kicks and jabs, stifling Burns. “Durinho” swings and misses with his right, and Muhammad makes him pay with a body shot. The tepid round comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Round 4
Between rounds, Burns appears to be struggling with his left arm, and he complains to his corner that he cannot use it. Despite this, the championship rounds are upon them, and Burns’ body language and face show he is not having a good time in the cage. Muhammad compounds this by starting off Round 4 with a body kick and a few punches, and Burns blinks hard and drills Muhammad with a right hand on the jaw. Muhammad shakes it targets the same spot on the ribs with one more kick. Burns shells up as Muhammad kicks his body, and Burns replies with one of his own. Muhammad narrowly blocks a head kick in time, with Burns surprising him with the sudden strike. Muhammad stutter-steps his way into action, with a one-two off the guard as he leans back from a home run punch soaring at him. Burns drops down to snatch up a single, and he nails Muhammad with a blistering right hand that gives Muhammad a little wobble. Burns celebrates this with a body kick, a knee to the body and a leg kick, and he backs Muhammad away with a feint. Burns considers another single, and he abandons it because he cannot use his arm to secure it. Muhammad kicks high to the hurt arm, and Burns grimaces. Seeing this, Muhammad attacks it again with a kick up high. Muhammad shrugs off a leg kick to the inside of his knee, and he fires off two kicks to the shoulder. Burns blocks the strikes that come at him, and he splits a right hand down the pipe that shakes Muhammad up again. Muhammad weathers it and goes to jab, and the round ends with the crowd booing the welterweights.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Round 5
A dejected Burns is able to come out of his corner to start the last round, and a corner stoppage would not be out of the question given Burns condition. This sport rarely allows for such a courtesy, and the last round begins. Burns blocks an early head kick and loops two right hands over the top. Burns drops down for a takedown, and he abandons it and absorbs a few kicks to the head and body. Muhammad reaches his foe with a lunging right, and he is out of range when Burns attempts his overhand right. Burns is caught with a right hand coming in, and he wobbles back but gathers his balance. Muhammad punishes the ribs with the umpteenth kick to that same target, and Burns toughs it out. They both clash together with their fists, and Muhammad is the one to land better and backs Burns away. Burns secures a leg kick to buckle Muhammad’s knee for a second, but Muhammad speedily recovers and he takes another. Burns leaps in with a few rights, and Muhammad counters and fearlessly walks Burns down. Muhammad leans back from the obligatory right hook and tags him with a few punches, and he sees the telegraphed bomb and dodges it again. Burns knocks Muhammad back with his right, only for Muhammad to step in front of him and connect with a one-two. Burns swings and misses with two missiles that are right hands, with his left completely out of the picture in this fight other than as a blocking limb. They both trade heavy fire, and Muhammad darts out of harm’s way when Burns looks to reach him. When the 10-second clapper sounds, Muhammad kicks high and then aims one to the body, and the disappointing 25-minute affair comes to a merciful conclusion. The two immediately hug it out after the bell rings, and Muhammad should finally have done enough to earn a crack at the 170-pound throne.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (49-46 Muhammad)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (50-45 Muhammad)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (49-46 Muhammad)
The Official Result
Belal Muhammad def. Gilbert Burns via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
Angelo picks Belal Muhammad, citing his wrestling pressure and improved striking. He notes that Gilbert Burns is coming off a quick turnaround (fought three weeks ago) and that fighters in that situation often lose. Angelo believes Belal's wrestling pace will overwhelm Burns, and he questions Burns' submission threat off his back. He has a quarter unit on Belal at +105, noting the line has tightened from Burns being a big favorite.
Big Brady picks Muhammad in this five-round fight. He believes Burns is the better striker early with more power, but Muhammad's cardio, pressure, and volume will wear Burns down in the later rounds. He notes Burns has questionable cardio and chin, and Muhammad has excellent takedown defense and get-up game. He predicts Muhammad will weather the early storm and finish Burns late, possibly by fourth-round TKO.
Cody emphasizes that the five-round format heavily favors Belal Muhammad's proven cardio and durability over Gilbert Burns, who has questionable gas tank. He notes Belal's high ring IQ, ability to adjust game plans (lateral movement vs Luque, forward pressure vs Brady), and that Burns' recent wins are over older or less dangerous opponents. He expects Belal to survive early rounds and take over late, making the underdog line attractive.
Connor also picks Muhammad, agreeing that Burns is uncomfortable under pressure and that Muhammad's jab will be key. He notes that Muhammad is a smart fighter who sticks to his game plan and that Burns' wrestling may not be a decisive factor. Connor expresses concern about Muhammad's short notice but trusts his conditioning.
The host picks Belal Muhammad, citing his pace, pressure, and cardio as key advantages over Gilbert Burns. He believes Muhammad's grappling-heavy style, similar to Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington, will wear down Burns, who has cardio issues. He expects Muhammad to finish Burns in the fourth or fifth round, and notes that the plus 120 odds look easy.
Paul initially leaned toward Gilbert Burns but changed his mind after realizing the fight is five rounds, which makes the line more reasonable. He notes Burns' quick turnaround and Belal's experience fighting after Ramadan without issue. He says he's 'leaning ever so slightly towards Belal' because of the five rounds, but thinks the market has it right and it's a close fight.
The Guru confidently picks Burns, citing his peak physical condition from fighting frequently and his power advantage on the feet. He believes Burns will set traps and land big shots as Belal comes forward, and that Belal's takedowns won't worry Burns due to his jiu-jitsu. He also questions Belal's mindset and weight cut, noting Belal's complaints and inconsistent weight claims. He predicts a TKO via right hand against the cage.
Zane picks Muhammad, emphasizing that Burns tends to destruct under pressure and that Muhammad's jab-centric striking is a great weapon against Burns' catch-and-counter style. He notes that Muhammad is adaptable and well-prepared, and that Burns' recent performance against Masvidal was uninspiring. Zane also mentions that the five-round fight favors Muhammad's cardio and pressure.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 42 of 99 | 42% | 72 of 135 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 5:41 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 0 | 39 of 91 | 42% | 77 of 130 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gilbert Burns | 0 | 13 of 39 | 33% | 15 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 0 | 15 of 38 | 39% | 20 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Gilbert Burns | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 27 of 40 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 32 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 3 | Gilbert Burns | 0 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 30 of 53 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 25 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Burns | 42 of 99 | 42% | 34 of 84 | 3 of 7 | 5 of 8 | 37 of 90 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 39 of 91 | 42% | 14 of 61 | 8 of 11 | 17 of 19 | 38 of 90 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gilbert Burns | 13 of 39 | 33% | 7 of 29 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 15 of 38 | 39% | 5 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 10 | 15 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Gilbert Burns | 7 of 16 | 43% | 6 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 5 of 11 | 45% | 1 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Gilbert Burns | 22 of 44 | 50% | 21 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 19 of 42 | 45% | 8 of 29 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 8 | 19 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Burns (-490), Masvidal (+390)
Round 1
The loudest pop of the evening almost certainly goes to Miami’s own Masvidal (35-16, 12-9 UFC), who walks out to this tough stylistic matchup as a heavy underdog on a losing streak. In his face for a maximum of three rounds will be “Durinho” Burns (21-5, 14-5 UFC), who can present problems on the feet and ground, depending on where his mood takes him. Action is virtually a guarantee here, and the watchful eye of referee Marc Goddard looks on. With ample respect, the gloves get touched when Goddard brings them together. There is no flying knee try from Masvidal, for those expecting him to come out firing this. Burns walks forward, but Masvidal takes the center of the cage. The two are hesitant to engage with little more than jabs, other than a single low kick from “Gamebred.” Burns throws one back, and they proceed to go tit-for-tat with these slapping strikes. Chants for “305” and “Let’s Go Jorge” rain down, but it does not spur the local fighter into action. Burns whiffs on a left hook, and neither man seems willing to commit to anything of note. Burns reaches out with a few jabs that miss the mark, but a right hand splits the guard and draws a smile from his opponent. Burns darts in with a straight right, and Masvidal slides out of the way and resets. Masvidal blitzes suddenly with three punches and a leg kick, and the crowd goes wild. Masvidal sinks another kick home on the lead calf, and Burns replies with a leg kick and one to the ribs. Masvidal sticks his tongue out, and Burns attacks with a pair of looping, blocked punches. Burns ducks a big punch and nearly takes the fight down, but Masvidal moves out of the way before he gets tripped. The Brazilian lands a single kick to the body, and he switches stances a few times and catches Masvidal with a right hand. Masvidal connects with another leg kick, and Burns chops down low. Masvidal surges into action, throwing a few heavy punches, but a left hand from Burns keeps him honest. Burns loops a right hand around the guard, and Masvidal shakes it off and pins three punches on the guard. Burns cracks him with a serious right hand, and Masvidal waves him on. Burns slings a right hand, changes levels and throws Masvidal to the ground. Burns postures up, flailing punches, and Masvidal goes crazy throwing offense from his back. The round ends, and the two high five.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Round 2
The second round opens up with Burns pushing forth a jab, and he slams his fist onto Masvidal’s jaw and knocks him off his feet. Masvidal jumps back to his feet, but Burns meets him with a double. When Masvidal defends with a guillotine, Burns simply lifts him off the ground like a sack of flour and slams him down to the ground. Burns lands in the guard and Masvidal is quickly warned for punches to the back of the head. Burns maintains heavy top pressure while getting off occasional strikes, but Goddard asks him to do more. Masvidal hangs on in hopes of forcing a standup, and Burns is unable to get off much offense from above. Goddard again tells Burns to work, and Masvidal clings to him to shut it down. Burns slashes down with a single elbow, and Masvidal works his way to put his head and neck against the wire. Burns partially stands up to step over, but Masvidal wall-walks at the same time and somersaults to break the grip. This backfires, as Burns takes his back and hangs onto it while Masvidal stands. Burns slams “Gamebred” on his face in a subsequent takedown, and Masvidal leans up against the wall and even threatens the BJJ world champion with a guillotine choke. Burns completely ignores it, and Masvidal manages to fight back to his feet. Burns presses him tightly in the clinch, and Masvidal spins him around and knees him a few times. Burns turns him back around, and he gets pushed back to split them up with 30 seconds to spare. Masvidal wings an inaccurate right hand, and he plants his shin on the body. Burns runs at him with his hands flying, and they both clash together with right hands. Burns acknowledges it, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Round 3
The fighters touch ‘em up to open the final frame, and Burns puts his foot upside the head. Masvidal shrugs it off and chops the calf with a single strike. The crowd puts its support behind the local competitor, and Burns punches him square in the face with his right hand. Masvidal blocks a lunging right hook but eats a pair of jabs. Masvidal gets off a strong low kick, and he comes up short on an uppercut. The leg kicks continue working for “Gamebred,” whose offense is otherwise generally muted. Masvidal suddenly spins with a back kick to the body, and Burns steps through it and snipes Masvidal with a left. Burns lands another, and Masvidal smiles at him. Burns lands a one-two on the chin, and Masvidal wobbles back to the fence and waves Burns on. A home run of a right hand skims off the chin, and Masvidal is still rocked but survives it. Masvidal gets some space and appears to have the cobwebs shaken out, as he puts a one-two on the Brazilian’s jaw. Burns lets his hands fly and smashes Masvidal in the face, and Masvidal again stumbles back to the fence. Burns jabs instead of falling into a Masvidal trap, so Masvidal kicks his foe’s lead leg and flashes out his own jab. Burns lands a left and a right, and “Gamebred” toughs it out and gets Burns’ respect with a few punches. The Brazilian changes levels in pursuit of a takedown, and Masvidal stands him up. Burns continues to go after it, and he trips Masvidal and throws him on his back, where he lands in side control. Burns slams Masvidal in the face with elbows, and he moves to half guard to keep Masvidal pinned to the mat. Burns considers an arm-triangle choke, but Masvidal uses two-on-one wrist control to stifle it. Masvidal is warned for grabbing inside the gloves, and Burns slides around to nearly take the back. Masvidal works to his knees, and the fight comes to a close. After the scores are read, Burns calls for a title shot. Masvidal, however, takes his gloves off and calls it a career after "20 long years."
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns (30-27 Burns)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns (30-27 Burns)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns (30-27 Burns)
The Official Result
Gilbert Burns def. Jorge Masvidal via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Gilbert Burns but is not betting due to the steep -450 odds. He notes that Masvidal has solid takedown defense and good hands, and if the fight stays on the feet, Masvidal is the better striker. He thinks Burns will grind out a win but is wary of Masvidal's ability to defend takedowns and potentially win a decision in his hometown.
Big Brady picks Gilbert Burns to win by decision, citing his wrestling advantage and Masvidal's age. He notes Burns should take the fight to the mat and control Masvidal, who has good takedown defense but can be controlled once taken down. He does not see a finish and warns against betting at -500 odds.
Cody picks Burns but is hesitant at -450. He notes Masvidal is very difficult to take down, as shown in five-round fights against Usman and Covington. Cody thinks Burns wins 8 out of 10 times but sees value on Masvidal due to the Florida crowd and Masvidal's power. He mentions PrizePicks under 2.5 takedowns for Burns as a potential play because Burns might not wrestle or could get a quick submission.
Connor picks Burns because Masvidal has regressed significantly: his boxing has become sloppy, he relies on trick shots that he's no longer fast enough to land, and he lets opponents dictate the fight. Burns is aggressive, assertive, and will take full advantage of Masvidal's tendency to back up and corner himself. Connor notes that Masvidal used to be a great scrambler and wrestler, but now he seems to hate grappling and makes poor decisions. He also mentions Masvidal's ego and age have eroded his game.
Jacob is extremely confident in Gilbert Burns, calling Masvidal overrated and saying he is here to collect a check. He believes Burns will take Masvidal down, slam him, and submit him. He notes that Masvidal has only defended wrestlers like Usman and Colby, but Burns is a powerful grappler who will use strength and technique to finish the fight.
Masvidal is on a three-fight losing streak but those were against the division's elite. He has slick boxing, deceptive power, and excellent takedown defense and get-up game. Burns is a BJJ specialist but his striking is decent, and he doesn't have the cardio or wrestling to replicate what Colby did to Masvidal. I think Masvidal's striking advantage and the Miami crowd will carry him to a knockout win.
Paul acknowledges the best version of Masvidal could beat Burns, but believes Masvidal at 38 has lost a step and lacks the fire. He notes Masvidal's takedown defense is good but Burns' pressure and wrestling should wear him down. Paul expects Burns to take Masvidal down, control rounds, and win a decision or late finish. He cautions that Masvidal could keep it close in Florida but ultimately picks Burns.
The MMA Guru picks Gilbert Burns to drop Masvidal in round one and submit him with an arm triangle. He expects Masvidal to lead with kicks, and Burns will time a right hand over the top, dropping Masvidal. Burns will then take mount, land big shots, and as Masvidal scrambles, he will give up an arm triangle and tap with 30 seconds left in the round.
Zane picks Burns because Masvidal's game has fallen off: he's slower, gasses now, and his boxing is worse. He used to be a well-rounded technician, but now he looks for highlight-reel shots and doesn't have the speed for them. Burns will out-grapple him and doesn't even need to do that the whole time; he can just pressure Masvidal, who backs up too easily and corners himself. Zane notes that Masvidal's ego and age have combined to make him a shadow of his former self.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:35 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gilbert Burns | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:35 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Burns | 5 of 6 | 83% | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Neil Magny | 4 of 11 | 36% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gilbert Burns | 5 of 6 | 83% | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Neil Magny | 4 of 11 | 36% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Burns (-410), Magny (+330)
Round 1
Welterweights with a lot at stake invade the Octagon next, as former title challenger Burns (20-5, 13-5 UFC) looks to get back on the right track against the UFC welterweight division’s all-time wins leader Magny (27-9, 20-8 UFC). At 36 and 35 years of age, respectively, the time is now for these two to go on a run, lest they get left behind for the young guns nipping at their heels. This 170-pound “featured fight of the night” scrap will have referee Fernando Portella keeping tabs, and it begins with hands clapping together. The two hesitantly approach one another, and Magny uses his range to disallow Burns from coming at him. This strategy does not stay intact for long, as Burns closes in to whip a high body kick under the elbow. Burns chambers his big right hand without throwing it for a prolonged stretch, and he rushes forward and only lands a jab. The right hand from Burns is chained right into a level change, and he scoops Magny off the ground and slams him to the mat without batting an eye. The Brazilian shifts straight into half guard when landing, although the veteran Magny drags him back to his guard. Burns aims to jump into the mount, and opts to move to side control when Magny’s long legs give him issues. Magny leans to his side, and Burns hooks his left arm behind the neck and right arm beneath Magny’s left knee to pass. Burns passes to the other side, and he presses his shoulder down in a potential arm-triangle setup. "Durinho" slices over to full mount, as the crowd cheers in unison for his success. Burns again flirts with an arm-triangle, but bails on it to lock Magny’s right arm down in a potential keylock. Burns suddenly presses his full body weight down and steps to the side brilliantly for an arm-triangle choke, and he locks it up in an instant even with his side against the cage wall. Magny knows there is nothing more he can do, and he reaches his arm straight out and then taps out. Burns made that look easy, putting away a respected veteran while barely breaking a sweat. In the process, he also pulled off his first submission since returning to welterweight in 2019.
The Official Result
Gilbert Burns def. Neil Magny R1 4:15 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Big Brady is confident Burns will submit Magny in the first round. He notes Burns is a wizard on the mat with elite BJJ, while Magny has poor takedown defense (57%) and has been submitted five times. Burns will take the fight down easily and finish. On the feet, Magny has a reach advantage but Burns has more power. He expects a first-round submission.
Cody picks Gilbert Burns confidently, believing Burns should win two rounds and coast in the third. He notes Burns' pressure, wrestling, and Jiu-Jitsu are key, and that Magny's long limbs are a disadvantage on the ground. He acknowledges Burns' cardio and chin concerns but thinks the Brazilian crowd and Burns' recent form (Chimaev fight) will carry him. He says Burns' path to victory is takedowns and control.
Connor agrees with Zane, stating that Burns is a nightmare matchup for Magny. He notes that Magny has improved his jab and pressure, but Burns is a souped-up version of the fighters who have troubled Magny before. Connor believes Burns can take Magny down or beat him in the clinch, and that Magny's only path is a lucky shot.
Paul picks Gilbert Burns but with some hesitation. He notes Burns' cardio and durability issues, but thinks Burns' pressure, wrestling, and Jiu-Jitsu will be too much for Magny. He mentions Magny's good cardio and ring IQ but says Burns is the better fighter. He warns that Burns could gas out or get caught, but overall expects Burns to win via takedowns and top control.
The Guru picks Burns but calls it his least confident pick on the card. He notes Magny's reach advantage and straight punches could trouble Burns, who struggles with range. However, Burns has offensive takedowns and Magny makes mistakes defending them. The Guru predicts Burns will find a submission (rear-naked choke or arm triangle) or TKO via ground and pound. He worries about the style matchup but trusts Burns' grappling.
Zane picks Burns, calling it a 'miserable matchup' for Magny. He notes that Magny historically struggles against powerful strikers, technical top-position grapplers, and freak athletes—Burns is all three. Zane highlights Burns' toughness, power, and well-rounded game, and believes Magny's only chance is to be super aggressive and hope for a miracle.
Expert Picks (4)
Big Brady picks Kamaru Usman to win by decision. He believes Usman has more paths to victory, including controlling the fight against the cage and using his wrestling. He notes that Burns' level of competition is lower and that Usman's takedown defense is perfect. He thinks Burns' only path is a submission, but Usman hasn't been submitted in over a decade. He expects a boring fight but a clear win for Usman.
Daniel Levi picks Kamaru Usman to win by decision, citing Usman's relentless work rate and output. He notes that Usman lands far more strikes than Burns (e.g., 175 vs Colby, 130 vs RDA) and questions Burns' ability to maintain pace over five rounds. He acknowledges Burns' power and submission threat but believes Usman's pressure and cardio will wear him down. He also mentions the former teammate dynamic and that Burns must have fight-changing moments to win.
The host believes Usman is the better fighter with superior wrestling, pace, pressure, and strength. He notes that Burns' impressive run includes wins over an aging Tyron Woodley and a past-prime Demian Maia, and that Burns has never faced pressure like Usman's. He expects Usman to drown Burns in the later rounds with his cardio and clinch work, predicting a decision victory.
The Guru picks Gilbert Burns as a significant underdog, calling it a 50/50 fight that should not have such wide odds. He believes Burns has better stand-up and grappling technique, dangerous knockout power, and the advantage of training with Usman's former teammates at Sanford MMA who know his weaknesses. He also notes Usman's recent broken nose and recovery issues. He predicts Burns will catch Usman in an exchange and win by TKO in the first or second round.
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