vs
+220 -250
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · Jun 12, 2021 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 Next Fight
Age 38
Height 6' 3"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 35
Height 6' 4"
Reach 79.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Paul Craig
2.5 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
3.04 SApM
43.0% Str. Def.
1.43 TD Avg
18.0% TD Acc.
35.0% TD Def.
1.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jamahal Hill
6.19 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
4.03 SApM
44.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
73.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Paul Craig
Moneyline
BetWay +220
KO/TKO
BetWay +1000
Submission
BetWay +500
Decision
BetWay +600
Jamahal Hill
Moneyline
FanDuel -250
KO/TKO
BetWay -125
Submission
BetWay +1800
Decision
BetWay +350
Paul Craig - Fight History
KO R1 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · Sep 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Modestas Bukauskas 0 22 of 36 61% 29 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:50
Paul Craig 0 6 of 14 42% 30 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Modestas Bukauskas 0 22 of 36 61% 29 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:50
Paul Craig 0 6 of 14 42% 30 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Modestas Bukauskas 22 of 36 61% 18 of 30 0 of 0 4 of 6 10 of 17 0 of 0 12 of 19
Paul Craig 6 of 14 42% 0 of 4 2 of 3 4 of 7 5 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Modestas Bukauskas 22 of 36 61% 18 of 30 0 of 0 4 of 6 10 of 17 0 of 0 12 of 19
Paul Craig 6 of 14 42% 0 of 4 2 of 3 4 of 7 5 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Paul Craig
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bukauskas (-350); Craig (+280)

Round 1
The “featured fight of the night” slot is now occupied by a light heavyweight car crash in the form of Lithuania’s Bukauskas (18-6, 5-4 UFC) against “Bearjew” Craig (17-9-1, 1 NC; 9-9-1, 1 NC UFC). While Bukauskas celebrates a stoppage rate over 70%, Craig has still never needed the judges to get his hand raised after all these years. Referee Marc Goddard will keep things on the up-and-up here, and he stands back as the athletes come towards one another without touching gloves.
Bukauskas is able to get his hands on Craig early, scoring at the end of a left hand. Craig bounces off the fencing, and Bukauskas smacks him with a low kick. Craig whiffs on a high kick, and his calf is struck once more in response. Bukauskas charges with a flurry of punches and results in a clinch, which is where Craig would prefer to be. Bukauskas lands a few short clinch strikes, and he backs off and avoids a looping hook in time. Bukauskas goes back to his calf kick, with the two trading this particular blow until Craig spins at him with a back kick. Bukauskas skips forward to ding Craig with an overhand right, and he is driven back from a spinning kick to the ribs.
They land leg kicks on one another, and Bukauskas blocks a kick in time and is reminded of a past loss to Khalil Rountree when Craig stomps at his knee. Craig gets hold of Bukauskas and pushes him from one side of the Octagon to the other. Craig looks to trip Bukauskas up, and he tries to muscle his man down but Bukauskas is able to keep upright. Craig laces his leg between his foe’s, and he abandons the effort to knee the body a few times. Bukauskas turns him about and plants knees on his torso. Craig jumps guard, and he slides off Bukauskas and hits the ground. Bukauskas lets him hit the floor so he can rain down punches, and he elects to get into Craig’s guard. Bukauskas drums his opponent’s head off the canvas with his devastating ground-and-pound.
Craig turns to defend the strikes, and Bukauskas postures up and demolishes him with one of the most destructive elbows one could ever see or hear. The horn sounds, and Craig lifelessly slumps to his side. Goddard recognizes that Craig is out cold and waves the fight off as five minutes had elapsed.
Luckily for “Bearjew,” he is able to come to shortly thereafter, and he congratulates Bukauskas for sending him astral traveling. While Bukauskas celebrates his handiwork and calls for a top-15 opponent, Craig removes his gloves to signal his retirement, thanking everyone for the memories while noting that the young eat the old in this sport.

The Official Result
Modestas Bukauskas def. Paul Craig R1 5:00 via KO (Elbow)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas confidently, citing his versatile striking, takedown defense, and power. He believes Bukauskas will chop down Craig's legs and avoid his submission threats. He notes Craig's poor takedown entries and mediocre striking. He was swayed by Bukauskas' hype video showing his comeback.

"Modesus is going to be the pick. I think he kind of runs through Paul Craig to be honest with you."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Big Brady picks Modestas Bukauskas, criticizing Paul Craig's recent point-fighting style. He believes Bukauskas can outstrike Craig from the outside and avoid his guard. He expects a boring decision win for Bukauskas, as Craig no longer wrestles or pulls guard effectively.

Bukauskas by decision
"Bukowskis for me, Bukowskis by decision. I think this fight's probably going to suck to be honest."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Bukauskas. He notes that Paul Craig is vulnerable everywhere—standing, on his back, and even on top—and that Bukauskas is a solid fighter who can win without engaging on the ground. He emphasizes that Craig's fragility makes him likely to get hurt in exchanges.

"Paul Craig's fragility is always going to be there. Craig is always going to be the more likely guy to get extremely badly hurt in any exchange."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

The host believes Bukauskas can utilize his striking advantage to keep Craig at bay, touch him up from distance, and avoid overextending to prevent takedowns. He expects Bukauskas to win on the scorecards.

"I think this is a fight where Bukowskis can utilize his striking advantage to keep Craig at bay, touch him up from distance and may not overextend too much here in hopes of not getting taken down."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

The Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas, criticizing Paul Craig's lack of improvement in standup over a decade. He believes Bukauskas' pressure and straight rights will catch Craig early. He predicts a first-round TKO, noting Bukauskas' ability to cut off the cage and land devastating shots.

first round TKO
"I'm going with Modestus Picowskus and I'm going to say that he finishes this in round one."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Zane picks Bukauskas easily, noting that Paul Craig's striking is a mess and his takedown accuracy is poor. He believes Bukauskas can keep the fight standing and hurt Craig, or take him down and control him without getting submitted. He calls the fight unnecessary but sees Bukauskas as a solid functional fighter who should win.

"Got to pick Modestus Bukauskis and this fight just didn't, doesn't need to be, it doesn't need to exist."
NC R1 4:59 · UFC on ESPN: Usman vs. Buckley · Jun 14, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paul Craig 0 17 of 27 62% 40 of 52 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:34
Rodolfo Bellato 0 10 of 20 50% 16 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paul Craig 0 17 of 27 62% 40 of 52 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:34
Rodolfo Bellato 0 10 of 20 50% 16 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paul Craig 17 of 27 62% 7 of 16 10 of 11 0 of 0 14 of 23 2 of 3 1 of 1
Rodolfo Bellato 10 of 20 50% 2 of 11 2 of 2 6 of 7 9 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paul Craig 17 of 27 62% 7 of 16 10 of 11 0 of 0 14 of 23 2 of 3 1 of 1
Rodolfo Bellato 10 of 20 50% 2 of 11 2 of 2 6 of 7 9 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rodolfo Bellato vs. Paul Craig
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bellato (-375), Craig (+295)

Round 1
What was previously booked a few weeks ago fell apart due to a sudden outbreak of cold sores for the favored man. The UFC puts it back together, knowing that if light heavyweight co-headliner goes all 15 minutes, something may have gone horribly wrong between these two ludicrously aggressive fighters. In their combined 29 wins, they have just one decision between them. Craig (17-9-1, 9-9-1 UFC) still celebrates his gaudy 100% finish rate, while Bellato (12-2-1, 1-0-1 UFC) went the distance for the LFA title that springboarded him to DWCS. Referee Kevin MacDonald dons his proverbial hard hat for this explosive contest, and the fighters decide to bump their large fists together before going for broke. Bellato resides in the center of the age, pump-faking and feinting but not throwing anything. Instead, Craig lands first, in the form of a hefty body kick. Bellato swings and misses with huge hooks that might have dome some serious damage, and he is not messing around early. Bellato chips at the lead leg and jabs the midsection, getting met with a body kick on the way out. Bellato’s leg kick finds its home again, and his right hand is wound up ready to strike. Instead, the Brazilian clinches, and he bounces out and rocks Craig with a right hand. Craig responds with a spinning back kick to the breadbasket, and he takes some of the sting off a front kick aimed at his chest. Craig spins with another back kick that lands flush, and he jabs and shoots for a takedown that does not come. Bellato stays focused on welting up the Scot’s front leg, and he ignores a left hand so he can prepare for a takedown that comes. Bellato stuffs it and wings a right hand, and the looping hook buzzes past Craig’s beard. Bellato takes two more body kicks, nods and stalks “Bearjew” down. Craig rips another kick to the ribs, and he spins with a back kick and drops down for a single. Bellato frames off and keeps his balance, forcing Craig to sell out and drop down for it while pushing the heavy betting favorite against the wall. Craig trips Bellato up, and as if he had springs in his shorts, Bellato bounces off the mat to get back to his feet. Craig ducks a huge punch and goes after a takedown, but Bellato bowls him over and lands heavily in half guard. Bellato flirts with an arm-triangle setup, retaining heavy chest pressure to not allow Craig to do something off his back. Bellato postures up and stands up with 10 seconds to go, smacking Craig with a low kick and diving down.
Craig pushes off of him and belts Bellato with a brutal upkick while Bellato’s right knee is down. The stunner of an upkick knocks Bellato clean out, who collapses to his back. After a few seconds he snaps back to consciousness and looks terrified, eyes wide as dinner plates, and he scurries towards the wall to defend himself from an unknown threat.
Still not knowing where he is, Bellato seats himself against the fence, and when MacDonald approaches him, Bellato tries to grapple him and even attempts a leglock. MacDonald calmly, professionally informs Bellato that he got knocked out, and calls for a replay to determine the legality of the blow. It is clear the fight is over and that Bellato will not be able to continue, so the only question is whether MacDonald will declare this fight result a disqualification or a no contest. Meanwhile, virtual judge Devin Tejada specifically requested that his round score of a 10-6 in favor of Craig be declared here even though the round did not end. This is a rough situation, one that merits this match be booked one more time in a few months.

The Official Result
Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato is Ruled a No Contest (Illegal Upkick) R1 4:59
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Angelo picks Bellato because Paul Craig is not very good and has no evolution in his game. He notes that Bellato should win by keeping his elbows in on the ground and bombing away on the feet. He warns that Craig is dangerous on the ground but Bellato should avoid getting submitted.

"Ralph Bolato should absolutely win this fight. Paul Craig's not very good."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Big Brady picks Rodolfo Bellato by second-round knockout. He notes that Paul Craig is near retirement and has struggled at middleweight. He warns that Craig is dangerous on the ground but believes Bellato can keep the fight standing and knock him out, as long as he treats the ground like lava.

second round knockout
"I'll say Botato by second round knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Bellato will keep the fight upright and use his striking to damage Craig, eventually finding a knockout within two rounds. He is not expected to attempt a submission.

round 1-2 knockout
"I think he'll just look to utilize his big power and get Craig out of there within two rounds."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

The Guru picks Rodolfo Bellato, despite being a former Paul Craig supporter. He doubts Craig's chin and offensive intent, noting Craig struggled against Bo Nickal. He highlights Bellato's training with Luke Rockhold for grappling and expects a first-round TKO, as Bellato should be safe on the feet if he doesn't shoot into Craig's guard.

Rodolfo Bellato by first-round TKO
"I'm going to go over Balato. Hurts me to say it because I was a Paul Craig meme supporter for a long time. ... I think he's going to lose to Rulo Balato."
CANCEL vs Rodolfo Bellato
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paul Craig 0 17 of 27 62% 40 of 52 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:34
Rodolfo Bellato 0 10 of 20 50% 16 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paul Craig 0 17 of 27 62% 40 of 52 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:34
Rodolfo Bellato 0 10 of 20 50% 16 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paul Craig 17 of 27 62% 7 of 16 10 of 11 0 of 0 14 of 23 2 of 3 1 of 1
Rodolfo Bellato 10 of 20 50% 2 of 11 2 of 2 6 of 7 9 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paul Craig 17 of 27 62% 7 of 16 10 of 11 0 of 0 14 of 23 2 of 3 1 of 1
Rodolfo Bellato 10 of 20 50% 2 of 11 2 of 2 6 of 7 9 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Angelo picks Rodolfo Bellato by knockout, stating that Paul Craig's wrestling is too poor to get the fight to the ground where he is dangerous, and his chin is too weak to stay in the pocket. He notes that Bellato is a heavy-handed grappler who will come forward and bomb away. Angelo also mentions that Bellato is incredibly handsome, adding a humorous note.

Angelo predicts a knockout win for Bellato.
"This should be a Batto knockout all day long."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Big Brady picks Rodolfo Bellato, noting he is a black belt and the better striker with good power. He acknowledges Paul Craig's comeback ability but thinks Bellato's takedown defense and striking advantage lead to a second-round knockout.

Bellato by KO, round 2
"I'll take Bolato to win. I think he's going to knock out Paul Craig. I think he's going to do it in the second round."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

The host is surprised Bellato is such a big favorite, noting he is not super technical and Craig could pull off a submission. However, he leans with Bellato due to better hardware, good durability, and great cardio, expecting him to outdamage Craig and find a finish in the second or third round. He would not pay minus 500 on a fighter like this.

Bellato by KO/TKO in rounds 2-3; odds comment: wouldn't pay -500
"I'm still gonna lean with Bellto as I think he has a little bit better hardware, good durability and great cardio and that should allow him to outdamage Paul Craig, shut down the submission attempts and eventually find the finish …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

The Guru picks Rodolfo Bellato, calling him strong and durable with nice hands. He notes Bellato has been working with Luke Rockhold on grappling. He criticizes Paul Craig's game as limited (bad double leg, body kick, imanari roll) and thinks Craig has had his day. He predicts Bellato by TKO.

Craig is +390 underdog; Guru likes the odds for Craig but still picks Bellato
"I'm going with Rulo Balato. I'm sorry. So sorry."
LOSS vs Bo Nickal
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bo Nickal 0 54 of 85 63% 54 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Craig 0 47 of 129 36% 48 of 130 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bo Nickal 0 16 of 31 51% 16 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Craig 0 13 of 35 37% 14 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bo Nickal 0 22 of 26 84% 22 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Craig 0 21 of 48 43% 21 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Bo Nickal 0 16 of 28 57% 16 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Craig 0 13 of 46 28% 13 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bo Nickal 54 of 85 63% 24 of 50 13 of 16 17 of 19 54 of 85 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Craig 47 of 129 36% 21 of 93 14 of 23 12 of 13 47 of 129 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bo Nickal 16 of 31 51% 5 of 17 3 of 5 8 of 9 16 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Craig 13 of 35 37% 4 of 24 4 of 6 5 of 5 13 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Bo Nickal 22 of 26 84% 10 of 13 8 of 9 4 of 4 22 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Craig 21 of 48 43% 11 of 33 8 of 12 2 of 3 21 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Bo Nickal 16 of 28 57% 9 of 20 2 of 2 5 of 6 16 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Craig 13 of 46 28% 6 of 36 2 of 5 5 of 5 13 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Paul Craig vs. Bo Nickal
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nickal (-1100), Craig (+700)

Round 1
A pair of middleweights with 100% finish rates throw down in a clash that could find the winner with a number next to their name come Tuesday. Nickal (6-0, 3-0 UFC) has not encountered much opposition in the cage thus far as a pro, while Craig (17-8-1, 9-8-1 UFC) cannot say the same. Referee Dan Miragliotta is the third man in the Octagon for this one. There is no touch of gloves. Nickal starts out the initial aggressor, faking takedowns and tossing out a front kick. Nickal comes up short on a reaching left hand, and he changes stances to find another look. Craig absorbs a heavy calf kick, and he keeps his guard up to block a huge swinging left hand. Nickal chops at the front leg two more times as Craig walks him down, and Craig lets loose a body kick. Nickal absorbs a knee on the chin and a left hand, and a hard Craig leg kick makes Nickal take a funny step. Both men unload with power punches at the same time and glance off one another, and Nickal chambers and fires a huge right hand that misses. Craig checks a kick and fires off one that ricochets off the raised guard, and he has a second also blocked. Craig raises his leg as a body shield, and Nickal is unable to get his hands on him. Nickal reaches out with a side kick and a left hand, and Craig kicks him twice in response. Nickal wings another left hand, reaching out far and landing with a glancing blow. Craig checks a kick and slides back to not let Nickal get to him. Craig spins with a fake kick, and he slides back as Nickal aims a body shot. Craig pump-fakes several kicks until letting one loose, and Nickal doubles up on the left hook. Craig jabs his way in, and he starts talking to the unbeaten fighter. Nickal has one kick checked, and the second is not. Craig throws a kick that grazes the shoulder, and he rolls with a right hand that buzzes his hair. Nickal absorbs a right hand on the chin, which holds up well as he backpedals. Craig gets drilled with a left hook, and Nickal pitches another fastball that gives Craig brief pause. Craig again brings up a knee to intercept Nickal, and he chops at the front leg of his foe. Craig kicks his foe in the gloves, and the close round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Craig
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Craig

Round 2
Between rounds, Craig tells his corner how much fun he is having in the cage, grinning from ear to ear. The two start off the round again, with Craig jabbing his way forward into a head kick that comes up short. Craig kicks with his other leg, and he almost falls over but manages to keep his balance. Nickal has a huge right hand come over the top, and he has a kick caught. Craig chatters to his adversary, and Nickal does not change his expression. Nickal scores at the end of a left hand, and Craig responds with a right hand and keeps on talking. Craig swats away Nickal’s outstretched hand, whipping a kick to the guard. Nickal aims a body shot and goes over the top with a left hand, and Craig’s eyes open up a bit wider. Craig blocks a body kick with his knee, and Nickal jabs him in the chest and blasts him with an overhand right. Craig swarms forward with two punches and a high front kick, and he flicks out a jab. Nickal scores a body shot, and he cannot quite block the body kick that comes back his direction. Craig just misses with an uppercut as Nickal ducks down, and he takes a left hand on the chin. Craig lets fly two kicks and eats a body shot on the way back, with Nickal swinging hard with his left hand. The Scot checks a kick and talks to his opponent, and after they shadowbox, he lets fly one more body kick. Nickal winds up with a left hand and thumps his man in the chin, and Craig’s responsive elbow misses by a tiny margin. Craig sticks out a left and then a right, and he launches a body kick that hammers into the wrestler’s arms. Nickal splits the guard with a left and is disciplined enough to block the body kick he knows his coming at him, and he shells up to defend against a second. Nickal steps in with a right hand and catches Craig with a second, and the two both smack one another before the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Nickal

Round 3
The fighters meet in the middle to start the final frame, and Craig is the one marching forward first. After about 20 seconds, Craig tosses a half-hearted low kick, and Nickal counters him with a heavy right hand over the guard. Craig uses a side kick to push off, and he blocks a body kick. Nickal considers a takedown but abandons it, and he steps back as Craig’s leg whizzes past him. Nickal stands still and lets Craig walk around him, and he laughs and claps hands with his confused foe. Craig kicks the front leg twice, and he aims his shin at the chest after Nickal changes stances. Craig rifles a right hand down the pipe, and Nickal kicks him in the lead leg to respond. Nickal fakes a level change, and the audience showers the fighters with boos for their sparring match. Craig lets loose a high kick, and Nickal thanks him by clapping him on the side of the head with a right hook. Nickal skirts away, blocking a head kick and clipping Craig with a huge left hand. Craig grabs his eye, which starts swelling immediately and he backs up to the cage wall. Nickal corners him but picks his shots very carefully, and he does not engage with more than a right hook. Nickal springs away from a high kick and wings a left hand on the damaged eye, further hurting the Scot. Nickal kicks the front leg and dances away from danger, zipping in and out without much concern of reprisal. Craig jabs a few times, whiffs on a head kick and a front kick. Nickal rips a left to the body, and Craig starts pointing at him as the fans chant “overrated” at Nickal. Craig checks a kick, and Nickal draws his foot back uncomfortably. With seconds to spare, the Penn State wrestler sells out with haymakers, dinging Craig again and eating one in response. The disappointment of a fight comes to an end, and Nickal mimes swinging a golf club and goes over to talk to President-elect Donald Trump, who has been in the building since the end of the prelims.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nickal (29-28 Nickal)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nickal (30-27 Nickal)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Nickal (29-28 Nickal)

The Official Result
Bo Nickal def. Paul Craig via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Angelo picks Bo Nickal, calling it a clear win. He notes Nickal's elite wrestling and that Paul Craig is dangerous on the ground but Nickal can grapple with anyone. He speculates Nickal might test his striking since Craig is not dangerous on the feet. He is unsure about betting due to uncertainty over method of victory.

"B Nichols the clear as day pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Big Brady picks Bo Nickal by first-round knockout, agreeing with Paul Craig that Nickal should keep the fight standing. He notes that Craig is chinny and has been knocked out multiple times, while Nickal has quick hands and power. He believes Nickal will follow Kyle Daukaus' blueprint and knock out Craig early. He also likes the under on 1.5 takedowns for Nickal on PrizePicks.

less than 1.5 takedowns
"I like b nickel here I think he wins this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Cody picks Bo Nickal by submission, citing Nickal's elite wrestling and positional dominance. He notes Paul Craig is a one-trick pony with a suspect chin and weak wrestling, and that Nickal can take the fight wherever he wants. Cody expects Nickal to submit Craig, possibly with a rear-naked choke.

submission
"Bo Nichols sub is my official pick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Connor also picks Nickal but is hesitant, acknowledging that Craig's submission game is dangerous. He thinks Nickal's wrestling and athleticism will allow him to scramble and wear Craig out, but Craig could catch him in a submission if Nickal gets too aggressive. Connor is interested in the fight as a test for Nickal.

Nickal wins via decision or late TKO; potential for Craig submission
"I'm gonna pick bone nickel. Yeah, me too because the athleticism is there..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Paul Craig

Vreeland picks Craig as a big underdog because he sees value in Craig's submission threat. He notes Craig subbed Magomed Ankalaev and that Bo Nickal is still inexperienced in Jiu-Jitsu. Vreeland thinks Craig can catch a guillotine on one of Nickal's takedowns or take his back. He also points out that Nickal took over 8 minutes to finish Cody Brundage, suggesting he is not invincible.

"I think there's at least a seven to one chance that that happens... give me Paul Craig"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Daniel Vreeland picks Bo Nickal, acknowledging Paul Craig's impressive submission wins but believing Nickal's wrestling credentials and grappling ability will neutralize Craig's game. He thinks Nickal can keep the fight standing or on the ground and avoid Craig's submissions. He calls it a 'boring' pick but sees Nickal as the clear favorite.

"I'm going to be boring and pick the minus 10,000 favorite"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Fox picks Nickal, citing his athleticism, youth, and wrestling as a cheat code. He believes Craig has no chance against a wrestler of Nickal's caliber. Fox acknowledges the line is steep but is confident Nickal will win.

"obviously the uh athleticism Youth and strength is is a cheat code and um yeah this point in his career uh Craig does not really have a chance here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Lucrative James confidently picks Bo Nickal, the massive -1000 favorite. He believes Nickal's wrestling can dictate where the fight goes, and even if he shoots takedowns into Craig's guard, he can dominate from top position. He thinks Nickal is smart enough to keep it standing and knock Craig out, or slam him and finish on the ground. He notes Craig's dangerous submissions but feels Nickal will stay safe and win inside the distance, likely in round one.

wins inside the distance, wins in round one
"I think Bo is probably going to stay safe on top so even in Paul Craig's most dangerous realm which is most likely the ground here I still think Bo is going to win that fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Bo Nickal

The host expects Nickal to utilize his striking more effectively, looking for a knockout rather than going into Craig's dangerous guard. However, he notes the plus 200 submission prop on Nickal is worth considering. He officially picks Nickal by knockout.

submission prop at +200
"I do think he'll utilize his striking a little bit more effectively here looking for that knockout against Craig rather than going into the guard which is so dangerous of Craigs although I would not be surprised if Niko wants …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Paul picks Bo Nickal by knockout, arguing Craig is chinny and has been knocked out in four of his last five losses. He expects Nickal to take Craig down, soften him with ground and pound, and eventually knock him out as Craig tires. Paul likes the under 1.5 rounds.

under 1.5 rounds, knockout
"I'm personally lean towards the knockout I think Bo just Cooks him with a shot as he gets tired"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

The MMA Guru picks Bo Nickal, expecting a first-round KO. He acknowledges Paul Craig's submission threat but believes Nickal's wrestling and striking will overwhelm Craig. He notes Nickal's early finishes and thinks Craig's limited striking will be exposed.

first round KO
"I think b nickel is going to knock out Paul Craig on the feet in round one"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Zane picks Nickal but is not confident, noting that Nickal is raw and was coached through basic grappling in his last fight. He thinks Nickal's athleticism and scrambling ability will wear out Craig, but Craig's submission threat is real. Zane finds the fight interesting because it's a genuine test for Nickal.

Nickal wins via decision or late TKO; potential for Craig submission if Nickal makes a mistake
"I'm gonna pick bone nickel. Yeah, me too because the athleticism is there..."
LOSS vs Caio Borralho
KO (punches) R2 2:10 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Caio Borralho 0 22 of 48 45% 22 of 50 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:30
Paul Craig 1 36 of 50 72% 43 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Caio Borralho 0 15 of 29 51% 15 of 31 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:30
Paul Craig 0 20 of 30 66% 27 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
2 Caio Borralho 0 7 of 19 36% 7 of 19 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Paul Craig 1 16 of 20 80% 16 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Caio Borralho 22 of 48 45% 4 of 19 12 of 23 6 of 6 22 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Craig 36 of 50 72% 29 of 41 3 of 5 4 of 4 35 of 49 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Caio Borralho 15 of 29 51% 3 of 9 8 of 16 4 of 4 15 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Craig 20 of 30 66% 14 of 22 2 of 4 4 of 4 19 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Caio Borralho 7 of 19 36% 1 of 10 4 of 7 2 of 2 7 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Craig 16 of 20 80% 15 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 16 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Angelo is confident in Borralho, calling Paul Craig overrated and noting he can be finished. He expects Borralho to dominate and possibly finish Craig. He suggests waiting for prop bets.

Angelo says 'let's wait for the props to see what juice we can get going'
"Kyle baral is going to win this fight he should dominate here he should finish Paul Craig"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Big Brady sees Borralho as the much better striker and believes he will knock out Craig. He notes Craig's poor chin and recent damage taken. He predicts Borralho will take his time and finish Craig in the second round.

"I think Kyle knocks him out I think Kyle B gets his first UFC knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Cody picks Borralho, citing his superior wrestling, cardio, and durability. He notes Craig relies on submission magic but is poor defensively and has been neutralized by good grapplers. Cody expects Borralho to control the fight and win by decision or TKO.

"I think Kyle wins and maybe by decision..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff Fox on Caio Borralho. He emphasizes that Borralho is a great striker, noting his Contender Series wins over Aaron Jeffery and Jesse Murray were striking performances. Vreeland thinks people forget Borralho's striking because he is Brazilian and assumed to be a jiu-jitsu specialist. He believes Borralho can finish Paul Craig on the feet or on the ground, as Craig is a BJJ specialist but Borralho has the skills to avoid submissions and wear him down. Vreeland also mentions Craig's cardio concerns at middleweight.

"I think people forget that when Kai oh came to the UFC because he's Brazilian people are like oh yeah Jiu-Jitsu but like he came into the UFC with a couple of big striking performan is I think we can …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Daniel Vreeland picks Borralho by decision, citing his superior jiu-jitsu (Damaian Maya black belt) and well-rounded game. He notes that Craig's only path is submission, but Borralho's grappling defense should neutralize that. He highlights Borralho's decision-heavy record and suggests the decision prop at +200 as a better value than the -600 moneyline.

Borralho by decision +200
"I think Kyle's gonna win this one by decision and right now the money line on Kyle is what did we say was it minus 600 again yes sir but the decision Props Plus 200"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Jeff Fox picks Caio Borralho despite the steep -550 line. He notes that Borralho has the striking ability to keep the fight standing and potentially knock out Paul Craig, as Borralho stated in an interview. Fox also believes Borralho can replicate what Brendan Allen did on the ground, as he has the pressure and submission defense to avoid Craig's submissions early and wear him down. He questions Craig's cardio at middleweight, noting he appeared to quit in the Allen fight. Fox also highlights Borralho's underrated striking, pointing to his Contender Series performances where he beat Aaron Jeffery on the feet and knocked out Jesse Murray.

Borralho by KO/TKO +250 mentioned as a prop later in the show
"I love C Ohio yeah negative 550 not run into the ticket counter with it but uh yeah I'm still picking him here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Caio Borralho

Borralho is superior everywhere and is one of the hottest Brazilian prospects. He will use grappling defensively early, chip away at Craig, and possibly find a knockout. If Craig slows down, Borralho will take him down and smash from top position. Borralho finishes within two or three rounds.

finish within two or three rounds
"look for bajayo to finish this fight within two or three rounds"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Paul picks Borralho, emphasizing his superior grappling, wrestling, and durability. He believes Craig's only path is a submission, but Borralho's BJJ black belt and top control will neutralize that. Paul expects Borralho to stuff takedowns and ground-and-pound.

Borralho by KO/TKO
"I'm thinking he knocks him out... he just stuffs him and gets on top of him and puts a beating on."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

The MMA Guru picks Caio Borralho, predicting a first-round knockout via a stiff jab. He believes Borralho is a well-rounded, big middleweight with enough takedown defense to keep the fight standing, where Craig is less dangerous. He notes Borralho's recent wins over Abus Magomedov and Maxime Gremont, and expects him to chin Craig early.

first minute or two of the fight he chins Paul Craig and puts him away
"I'm going to go with baralo with a jab knocks down Craig and puts him away"
LOSS vs Brendan Allen
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 0:38 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Nov 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brendan Allen 0 32 of 43 74% 52 of 64 2 of 2 100% 2 0 7:58
Paul Craig 0 6 of 14 42% 13 of 21 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brendan Allen 0 14 of 19 73% 20 of 26 2 of 2 100% 1 0 2:49
Paul Craig 0 3 of 8 37% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:34
2 Brendan Allen 0 14 of 19 73% 28 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:47
Paul Craig 0 1 of 3 33% 4 of 6 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Brendan Allen 0 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:22
Paul Craig 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brendan Allen 32 of 43 74% 26 of 37 3 of 3 3 of 3 12 of 17 1 of 2 19 of 24
Paul Craig 6 of 14 42% 3 of 10 1 of 1 2 of 3 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brendan Allen 14 of 19 73% 9 of 14 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 9 1 of 2 7 of 8
Paul Craig 3 of 8 37% 0 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 3 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Brendan Allen 14 of 19 73% 14 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 16
Paul Craig 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 1
3 Brendan Allen 4 of 5 80% 3 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Craig 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Allen (-410), Craig (+320)

Round 1
At long last, we have reached the main event. Five rounds or less will decide a much-needed contender in the wide-open middleweight division. Two exceptionally talented and dangerous grapplers will ply their trade against one another, and referee Mark Smith will almost certainly get involved before it is said and done. Allen (22-5, 10-2 UFC) is aiming to add to his five-fight win streak, while Craig (17-6-1, 9-6-1 UFC) introduced himself to his lighter weight category by wrecking Andre Muniz in July. Before they inflict all sorts of violence on one another, they come together and stare down, but Craig does not want to touch gloves. They begin, and Craig leads with a low kick. Allen comes back with two punches, and he lands his own leg kick. Allen swings with everything he has, and he nearly topples over when missing. The two trade jabs, and Allen digs one to the breadbasket. They crash together, and Craig looks for a possible level change only to be met with a knee. Craig presses his man to the wall, and he drops down for a possible takedown. Allen stands him up before anything comes of it, but Craig is pressing him tightly against the wire. Allen knees the body and throws Craig over his hips, where he lands in full mount. Craig turns to his side, and Allen hammers him with a few punches and an elbow. Allen gets pulled back to half guard, and he is warned for hooking his toes in the fence. Allen hunts for an arm-triangle choke with pure chest and shoulder pressure, and Craig pushes both of his hands on Allen’s face to stop it. Allen isolates an arm and sneaks around to get the rear-naked choke, but Craig defends brilliantly with a calf slicer. Allen wrenches his leg out and turns around, and he attacks Craig’s ankle to keep him honest. Craig stands back up, and Allen slams him right back down to the mat. Allen smashes down with an elbow, and he cuts Craig’s eyebrow. The horn sounds, and Allen mocks him as they stand up.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Allen

Round 2
The middleweights meander towards one another to start off Round 2, and Allen sits down on a one-two that rocks Craig. Craig weebles and wobbles but does not fall down, and manages to catch Allen with his own right hook on the way. Craig shoots to save his chin, and Allen bowls him over and drives down an elbow. Allen frustrates his opponent with top control and sporadic elbows, and blood flows out of the corner of Craig’s eye. Allen looks for an arm-triangle choke and he steps into full mount, and Craig is in trouble but rolls to his side to break it up. “Bearjew” lands a few heel strikes to the thigh, and Allen answers him with elbows and a few smacking fists. Allen rails Craig with another elbow, and the cut on Craig’s eyebrow splits further. Craig maintains butterfly hooks, and Allen makes his life terrible with elbow after unanswered elbow. Craig throws his legs up to threaten with something, anything he can find, and Allen shucks them to the side and elbows Craig in the busted eye. Allen stacks his man up and gets illegally upkicked, and Smith warns Craig of the fouls. Allen hunts for another arm-triangle choke, and Craig is wise to it and defends before it comes together. Allen sneaks a guillotine under the chin when Craig sits up, and Craig keeps his back against the fence to stop his foe from getting the right leverage. Allen takes Craig’s back with seconds to go, and he looks for another rear-naked choke to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Allen

Round 3
The middleweights reach Round 3, and Allen starts off with his striking. Allen rips a left to the body and rings Craig’s bell with a left up top, and he jumps over Craig and snatches up a guillotine choke. Craig turns well enough to stop the choke from getting locked down, but he turns the wrong way.
Allen sees the opening and snatches it up in an instant, piggybacking Craig and wrapping up a rear-naked choke with practically zero setup. The RNC aficionado—Allen has won his last three fights with this submission—secures it under the chin and it is now a matter of time. The Scot thinks about going out on his shield, but he taps one time on the forearm to signal that he has been defeated.
Smith is right on top of the action and pulls them apart, and Allen confidently nods and calls for a big fight. On his post-fight interview, Allen asks for any top contender, no matter who they put in front of him, and he celebrates with his daughter in his arms. Allen asks her who won, and all smiles, she replies “Da da!” The UFC will be on break for a week, and fight fans in the U.S. will take the time off and celebrate Thanksgiving. When the UFC is back in December, we will be there, and we hope you are too.

The Official Result
Brendan Allen def. Paul Craig R3 0:38 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Angelo is very confident in Brendan Allen, citing his five-fight win streak and well-rounded game. He notes Allen has better striking and wrestling than Paul Craig, and is putting everything together at the right time. He has bets on Allen and expects him to win.

Has bets on Allen
"I still like Brendan here I think he's putting everything together at the exact right time in his career I have him winning this fight I am very confident"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Brendan Allen

Big Brady thinks the odds are silly because Paul Craig is always a live dog with his guard-pulling submissions. He questions Allen's fight IQ, expecting him to grapple despite the smarter path being striking. He picks Allen to win by submission, possibly a club and sub, but notes Craig is dangerous and can never be counted out. He says Allen has more ways to win but the fight could get tricky.

"I got to go Allen here I'll pick him to win this fight by submission maybe a club and sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Cody picks Brendan Allen confidently, citing his significant advantages on the feet and well-rounded grappling. He notes that Paul Craig's only path is a submission via pulling guard, but Allen's top control and BJJ training make that unlikely. Cody mentions the line is wide but expects Allen to smash Craig, possibly by TKO. He acknowledges Craig's opportunistic submission game but sees Allen as too well-rounded.

Craig by submission at +650 is mentioned as a possible sprinkle, but Cody does not endorse it.
"I'm picking him to win I think he should absolutely Flatline uh Craig"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Brendan Allen

Allen is the far superior striker with improved striking defense and a dangerous submission game. Craig has sketchy striking and relies on Jiu-Jitsu, but Allen can keep the fight standing and pick him apart. Allen will eventually find a TKO after posturing up with ground and pound, likely in the second or third round.

win by TKO
"I expect Allen to eventually get his hand raised and I think he's going to do it inside the distance give me Brendan Allen I'm going to say TKO after he's able to posture up and get some big shots …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Paul agrees with Cody, fading Paul Craig as usual. He acknowledges Craig's magic touch and opportunistic submissions but notes that Craig's wins come against opponents with glaring weaknesses. Brendan Allen is young, well-rounded, and trains at a top gym. Paul highlights Allen's submission win over Andre Muniz and his ability to wrestle, grapple, and strike. He sees Craig's suspect gas tank as a liability in a five-round fight and expects Allen to win, likely by TKO.

Paul mentions Craig by submission at +650 as a possible bet but does not recommend it.
"I'm going to agree but how many times have we sat here and talk about how Paul Craig's probably going to get smashed"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

The MMA Guru picks Brendan Allen to win by TKO at the end of round one after grappling exchanges. He believes Allen is a better jiu-jitsu player than Andre Muniz and has better takedown defense. He praises Allen's striking, including kicks and boxing, and notes his finishes over Bruno Silva and Krzysztof Jotko. He criticizes Paul Craig's standup and chin, and thinks Allen will land on him.

TKO end of round one
"I'm going to go Brendan Allen over Paul Craig... I think he's a better jiu-jitsu guy than Andre Muniz... I'm going to go with Brendan Allen getting this one done by TKO end of round one after some grappling exchanges …"
WIN vs André Muniz
TKO (elbows) R2 4:40 · UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Jul 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paul Craig 0 40 of 82 48% 54 of 101 2 of 2 100% 1 0 2:56
André Muniz 0 24 of 40 60% 31 of 47 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paul Craig 0 9 of 25 36% 10 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
André Muniz 0 13 of 23 56% 15 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:45
2 Paul Craig 0 31 of 57 54% 44 of 75 2 of 2 100% 1 0 2:56
André Muniz 0 11 of 17 64% 16 of 22 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paul Craig 40 of 82 48% 31 of 66 8 of 15 1 of 1 10 of 32 0 of 0 30 of 50
André Muniz 24 of 40 60% 15 of 30 2 of 3 7 of 7 15 of 27 1 of 1 8 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paul Craig 9 of 25 36% 1 of 10 7 of 14 1 of 1 9 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
André Muniz 13 of 23 56% 4 of 13 2 of 3 7 of 7 13 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Paul Craig 31 of 57 54% 30 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 30 of 50
André Muniz 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 12
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jul 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
André Muniz

Angelo is split between gut and brain. His gut leans toward Paul Craig's toughness and power, but his brain says Muniz has better wrestling and control. He notes Muniz looked old in his last fight but still gives a slight lean to Muniz because he can control with wrestling. He disagrees with the 2-1 odds on Muniz.

"the ever the slightest lean in the history of liens right now is probably towards Andre Muniz because he can control with the wrestling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
André Muniz

Big Brady picks André Muniz to win by first-round submission. He notes Muniz is a much better grappler than Craig, who relies on triangles off his back. He thinks Muniz can take Craig down and submit him, or knock him out on the feet. He mentions Craig's move to middleweight may affect his chin. He is confident Muniz has multiple paths to victory.

first round submission
"give me money is to win this fight I'll say he takes down Paul Craig kind of runs right through him here first round sub for Andre minis in this one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
André Muniz

Cody thinks Muniz is a terrible matchup for Craig, with superior BJJ and better striking. He questions Craig's weight cut to 185 and notes Craig's wins often come from being dominated then catching a submission. He expects Muniz to roll.

Muniz over 1.5 takedowns
"I can't think of like a worse matchup for him on the roster than Andre Muniz"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jul 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
André Muniz

Daniel is uncertain about this fight but sides with Muniz due to his experience at middleweight and his high-level jiu-jitsu. He acknowledges Paul Craig's dangerous guard and submission ability, noting Craig has submitted top light heavyweights. However, he is concerned about Craig dropping to 185 and thinks Muniz's grappling is a level above. He mentions that Muniz's last loss was due to fatigue, not skill, and that Craig's weight cut is a risk. He says he usually takes the dog when unsure but goes with the favorite here.

Daniel says 'I'll go with Muniz' but does not mention a bet. He notes the line is -220 and Craig is +185.
"I just really don't know so I'll go with Muniz but let's see"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
André Muniz

James picks Muniz to win by KO. He has a strong read on Muniz, having bet on him multiple times successfully. He believes Muniz is an elite jiu-jitsu player and that Craig won't be able to submit him. He thinks Muniz will crack Craig's chin, as Craig has a bad chin and Muniz hits hard. James notes that Muniz is dropping down in weight, which often doesn't go well, but he still expects a KO. He mentions that Muniz by KO is +350 on BetOnline and he hopes to find better odds elsewhere.

Muniz by KO at +350 (BetOnline), hopes to find +450 elsewhere
"I think moon is going to kill him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
André Muniz

The host picks André Muniz, believing his BJJ black belt will keep him safe on the ground and that he is the better striker. He notes Craig's danger off his back but thinks Muniz can grind him out from top position. He predicts a decision win for Muniz.

"give me Munez to win this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
André Muniz

Paul agrees, citing Muniz's superior Jiu-Jitsu and improved striking. He notes Craig's striking volume is very low and his wrestling is poor. He thinks Muniz will take Craig down and control him, though he doesn't love it as a lock.

Muniz over 1.5 takedowns
"I side with the superior skill set and it belongs to Andre Muniz"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
André Muniz

The MMA Guru picks André Muniz, arguing that Paul Craig's wins come from opponents taking him down, and Craig has poor stand-up. He believes Muniz will stuff takedowns and keep the fight standing, where he has a striking advantage. The Guru recalls Muniz wobbling Uriah Hall and predicts a KO win. He also notes Craig's chinny nature and lack of submission threats from top position.

KO
"I am gonna have to go if Andre minus the problem is people have been trying to convince me"
LOSS vs Johnny Walker
TKO (punches) R1 2:16 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Johnny Walker 0 3 of 8 37% 3 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Craig 1 16 of 20 80% 17 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Johnny Walker 0 3 of 8 37% 3 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Craig 1 16 of 20 80% 17 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Johnny Walker 3 of 8 37% 0 of 3 1 of 2 2 of 3 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Craig 16 of 20 80% 12 of 16 1 of 1 3 of 3 6 of 9 5 of 5 5 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Johnny Walker 3 of 8 37% 0 of 3 1 of 2 2 of 3 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Craig 16 of 20 80% 12 of 16 1 of 1 3 of 3 6 of 9 5 of 5 5 of 6
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Big Brady picks Johnny Walker to knock out Paul Craig in the first round. He notes Walker is much bigger, more explosive, and has huge power on the feet. Craig's striking is not good and he will likely pull guard, but Walker should disengage and keep it standing. If Walker goes to the mat, Craig is dangerous with submissions, but Walker can also finish with ground and pound. He trusts Walker to get the knockout but warns of sweating if it hits the mat.

first round knockout
"I think Johnny Walker puts out Paul Craig and I think he does it in the first round here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Cody picks Johnny Walker confidently, noting Walker's striking advantage and improved fight IQ under John Kavanagh. He says Walker can dictate range, use footwork, and potshot Paul Craig. He acknowledges Craig's dangerous BJJ but thinks Walker will keep the fight standing and avoid the ground. He mentions Walker's power and ability to knock out Craig. He also notes Craig's poor striking and takedown defense.

parlayed Walker with Gilbert Burns; mentions Walker's submission win over Ihor Potieria
"I like Johnny Walker as well I think Johnny Walker at his best he's kind of already done this matchup with Misha chirconov"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Paul Craig

Connor picks Paul Craig, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Walker's new passive style is worse than his old reckless one, and that Craig will pressure and likely land clean shots. Connor also mentions that Walker has never been submitted but that Craig is a submission specialist who could catch him.

Connor mentions the odds but does not place a bet.
"I'll take Paul Craig. I have zero faith in what Johnny Walker's been doing."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Paul picks Johnny Walker confidently, noting Walker's striking advantage and improved fight IQ. He says Walker can keep the fight standing and avoid Craig's BJJ. He mentions Craig's poor striking and takedown defense, and says Walker has the power to knock him out. He acknowledges Craig's submission wins over top guys but thinks Walker will fight smart and avoid the ground.

parlayed Walker with Gilbert Burns; mentions Walker's submission win over Ihor Potieria
"I parlay Johnny Walker who's plus 170 or minus 175 on the ticket with Gilbert Burns"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

The Guru is confident Walker will KO Craig. He highlights Walker's underrated grappling, noting he reversed Krylov and has improved rapidly. Craig has no striking threat, so Walker will be confident on the feet. The Guru predicts Walker will rock Craig, force a bad takedown, and finish with ground and pound, similar to the Ryan Spann fight.

KO via ground and pound
"I'm going with Johnny Walker I think Paul Craig is going to get ko'd in this fight and I can see it happening to ground and pound"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Paul Craig

Zane picks Paul Craig, citing that Craig has a reliable bag of tricks and will be aggressive, while Johnny Walker has regressed under SPG coaching, becoming passive and lacking a functional style. Zane notes that grappling is light heavyweight secret sauce, and Craig is a submission artist who can exploit Walker's poor grappling.

Craig opened at +130, now +158; Walker opened at -150, now -193. Zane does not place a bet.
"I'm gonna pick Paul Craig because at least Paul Craig has like a reliable bag of tricks."
Jamahal Hill - Fight History
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · Jun 21, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamahal Hill 0 69 of 172 40% 70 of 173 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 1 102 of 181 56% 102 of 181 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamahal Hill 0 14 of 30 46% 14 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 17 of 30 56% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jamahal Hill 0 15 of 33 45% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 15 of 35 42% 15 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jamahal Hill 0 6 of 25 24% 6 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 1 15 of 29 51% 15 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Jamahal Hill 0 8 of 28 28% 8 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 18 of 30 60% 18 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Jamahal Hill 0 26 of 56 46% 26 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 37 of 57 64% 37 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamahal Hill 69 of 172 40% 47 of 142 7 of 12 15 of 18 68 of 170 0 of 1 1 of 1
Khalil Rountree Jr. 102 of 181 56% 30 of 91 42 of 54 30 of 36 102 of 181 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamahal Hill 14 of 30 46% 2 of 17 3 of 3 9 of 10 14 of 29 0 of 1 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 17 of 30 56% 2 of 13 7 of 8 8 of 9 17 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jamahal Hill 15 of 33 45% 10 of 25 2 of 5 3 of 3 14 of 32 0 of 0 1 of 1
Khalil Rountree Jr. 15 of 35 42% 3 of 19 5 of 7 7 of 9 15 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jamahal Hill 6 of 25 24% 6 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 2 6 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 15 of 29 51% 7 of 17 2 of 5 6 of 7 15 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Jamahal Hill 8 of 28 28% 8 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 18 of 30 60% 8 of 17 6 of 7 4 of 6 18 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jamahal Hill 26 of 56 46% 21 of 49 2 of 4 3 of 3 26 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 37 of 57 64% 10 of 25 22 of 27 5 of 5 37 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Angelo picks Khalil Rountree Jr., citing his durability and power. He notes that Rountree went toe-to-toe with Alex Pereira and showed he belongs. He thinks Jamahal Hill has good footwork but may slow down, and that Rountree has more upside. He expects a fun fight and thinks Rountree can win if he pressures.

Mentions upside for fantasy; expects a fun fight.
"I'm going to pick Khalil Roundtree. I'm probably going to put him in my lineup because I think the upside is on his side."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 18, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Big Brady picks Jamahal Hill as a plus money underdog, but he is very hesitant due to Hill's recent performances after a gruesome injury. He notes that if Hill were the same fighter who beat Glover Teixeira, he would be max betting him, but the Hill who fought Pereira and Prochazka looked bad. Brady worries about Hill's durability and whether the injury took something out of him. He ultimately picks Hill but says he's not sure if he wants to put money on him, predicting a late finish or decision.

plus money underdog, not sure if I want to put my money on him
"I'm going to go Jamal Hill. I'm going to take the dog here to get it done."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Connor picks Rountree, emphasizing that Rountree is a much more consistent technician while Hill is a bad technician with poor footwork and defense, leaving him open to be picked apart. He notes that Hill's durability against Prochazka may not hold against a cleaner puncher like Rountree, and that Rountree's roteness gives him consistency similar to Pereira. He believes if Rountree can't finish early, Hill's pressure could turn the fight, but he still favors Rountree.

"I'm picking Roundtree because I think I just can't like that 30 seconds of the 30 seconds of footage. It's just so stark."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

The host notes Rountree opened around -160 but has moved to -120 as money came in on Hill, and he agrees with that movement. He thinks this is a great stylistic matchup for Hill to batter Rountree from distance, counter strike effectively, and pull away in deep water, predicting a round three or four KO finish.

round 3 or 4 KO finish
"I think this is a great stylistic match up for Hill to batter round tree from distance, counter strike effectively and then start pulling away in deep water which is where I expect Jamal Hill to come through with either …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

The MMA Guru picks Khalil Rountree Jr., despite acknowledging Jamahal Hill's underrated skills. He believes Rountree's low kicks will be decisive, and notes Hill's predictable movement. He also cites Rountree's longer recovery time since his loss to Pereira compared to Hill's recent brutal loss to Prochazka. He predicts a leg kick TKO in round 2 or 3.

Rountree wins by TKO (leg kicks) in round 2 or 3
"I'm gonna go with Khil Roundree Jr. I think the low kicks are going to be really good for him. I think we're going to see a rare leg kick TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Zane picks Rountree based on the stark technical advantage he sees in 30 seconds of footage: Rountree is much cleaner as a striker with better footwork, power, speed, and a more varied arsenal. However, he acknowledges Hill's comfort in messiness and ability to up the intensity over five rounds, drawing a parallel to Diaz vs Edwards. He is hesitant because Hill's durability and scrapping mentality could turn the fight late, but he ultimately sticks with Rountree.

"I'm picking Roundtree because I think I just can't like that 30 seconds of the 30 seconds of footage. It's just so stark."
TKO (punches) R3 3:01 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jiří Procházka 2 97 of 165 58% 101 of 170 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Jamahal Hill 0 81 of 177 45% 84 of 180 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jiří Procházka 1 32 of 58 55% 32 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Jamahal Hill 0 23 of 64 35% 25 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jiří Procházka 0 22 of 49 44% 22 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jamahal Hill 0 38 of 74 51% 38 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jiří Procházka 1 43 of 58 74% 47 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Jamahal Hill 0 20 of 39 51% 21 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jiří Procházka 97 of 165 58% 73 of 132 19 of 23 5 of 10 71 of 129 10 of 13 16 of 23
Jamahal Hill 81 of 177 45% 55 of 145 24 of 29 2 of 3 68 of 158 13 of 19 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jiří Procházka 32 of 58 55% 27 of 51 3 of 4 2 of 3 28 of 51 4 of 6 0 of 1
Jamahal Hill 23 of 64 35% 17 of 56 5 of 6 1 of 2 21 of 59 2 of 5 0 of 0
2 Jiří Procházka 22 of 49 44% 12 of 33 9 of 12 1 of 4 22 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jamahal Hill 38 of 74 51% 25 of 59 12 of 14 1 of 1 34 of 69 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Jiří Procházka 43 of 58 74% 34 of 48 7 of 7 2 of 3 21 of 29 6 of 7 16 of 22
Jamahal Hill 20 of 39 51% 13 of 30 7 of 9 0 of 0 13 of 30 7 of 9 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Angelo flips his pick to Jiří Procházka after initially favoring Jamal Hill. He cites Hill's poor weight management (claiming to be 240 lbs), delusion about his loss to Pereira, and lack of recent training. He believes Procházka's relentless pressure, durability, and never-quit attitude will overwhelm Hill, who has been inactive and may not be in proper fight shape.

"I think Yuri pahaska wins I've completely 180 flipped here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Cody picks Jamahal Hill, viewing him as a value play. He criticizes Procházka's defensive liabilities, wild style, and lack of a fallback grappling game. Cody notes that Procházka has been knocked out multiple times and relies on landing a big shot. In contrast, Hill is a volume striker with a good jab and right hand, and his only bad performance was on short notice against Pereira. Cody believes Hill's striking volume and durability will be key, and that Procházka's style plays into Hill's hands.

Mentions that this is a 205-pound striking match and buyer beware, but no specific prop.
"I like Jamal Hill I think this is definitely a value play this week minus 130 around that range"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Connor picks Procházka, citing his sustained pressure and ability to overwhelm opponents. He notes that Procházka's messy but systematic style is more reliable than Hill's self-taught, technically flawed approach. Connor points out that Hill's footwork is terrible, with crossed feet and a narrow stance, making him vulnerable to pressure. He believes that if Hill doesn't knock Procházka out early, Procházka's pressure will break him down. Connor also mentions that Procházka's recent loss to Pereira might affect his confidence, but his win over Rakic shows he still has the same grit.

Odds: Hill opened +122, now -125; Procházka opened -136, now +112. Connor thinks Procházka should be the favorite.
"Yuri is gonna win."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Daniel picks Hill, citing his volume as the best in light heavyweight history. He notes that Hill's durability and accuracy should be the difference, and that Procházka's defense is a concern. Daniel mentions that he took Hill at +100 earlier and believes the line should be closer to -150. He acknowledges both fighters have knockout power but thinks Hill can outclass Procházka.

Daniel took Hill at +100 earlier and says the line should be closer to -150. He mentions that both fighters have knockout power but Hill's volume is key.
"I actually took Hill here at plus 100 um I thought that you know if I'm the book Nick I'm charging you chalk on both sides"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Lucrative James picks Jamahal Hill via knockout, emphasizing Hill's power, volume, and ability to hurt opponents. He notes that Procházka gets hit frequently and has been dropped in many fights, while Hill has shown durability and heart, even with a broken arm against Paul Craig. James believes Hill's clean striking and cardio are on par with Procházka's, making it difficult for Procházka to break him late. He acknowledges recency bias from Hill's knockout loss to Alex Pereira but still favors Hill's striking accuracy and power.

"my prediction is Jamal Hill via knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jiří Procházka

The host leans with the power striking and pressure of Procházka. If his durability holds up, he should be able to pressure Hill, walk through his offense, land big shots, break him, and finish him within 10 minutes.

finishes within 10 minutes
"I am going to have to lean with the power striking and pressure of prasa here if his durability holds up similar to what I said about darush in the previous fight he should be able to pressure Hill walk …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Paul leans Hill but is less confident than Cody. He prefers the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' as a parlay piece, expecting a knockout. Paul notes that Procházka is a wild striker who gets hit a lot, and Hill has good durability. However, he points out Hill's takedown defense issues (Thiago Santos fight) as a potential path for Procházka. Paul thinks someone's head will get knocked off, and he leans Hill based on volume and chin.

Fight doesn't go to decision at -270 as a parlay piece. Also mentions under 1.5 rounds at +130 as a possibility.
"my preferred way like as a parlay piece is like taking like the minus 270 fight doesn't go to decision and uh and using that as a parlay piece this week"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Procházka. He emphasizes that Procházka's pressure and ability to force chaotic fights will be too much for Hill. Zane notes that Hill's technical flaws, especially his footwork and tendency to trade shots, play into Procházka's strengths. He also points out that Hill's path to the title was against aging fighters, while Procházka has faced tougher competition. Zane acknowledges the risk of Hill's power but believes Procházka's durability and pressure will win out.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"You got to take your knee here. Yuri beats Jamal Hill."
LOSS vs Alex Pereira
KO (punches) R1 3:14 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Pereira 1 24 of 30 80% 24 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Jamahal Hill 0 12 of 22 54% 12 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Pereira 1 24 of 30 80% 24 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Jamahal Hill 0 12 of 22 54% 12 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Pereira 24 of 30 80% 12 of 15 6 of 6 6 of 9 13 of 16 0 of 0 11 of 14
Jamahal Hill 12 of 22 54% 1 of 7 3 of 6 8 of 9 12 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Pereira 24 of 30 80% 12 of 15 6 of 6 6 of 9 13 of 16 0 of 0 11 of 14
Jamahal Hill 12 of 22 54% 1 of 7 3 of 6 8 of 9 12 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Light Heavyweight Title Fight: Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pereira (-130), Hill (+110)

Round 1
It may not have the blockbuster name like a Conor McGregor or Brock Lesnar type, but the headliner of UFC 300 is a legit matchup that promises action from start to finish. Pereira (9-2, 6-1 UFC) aims to make the first defense of his light heavyweight throne—a two-division champ at that—against a man in Hill (12-1, 1 NC; 6-1, 1 NC UFC) that never his belt in the cage. The rightful champion should emerge from this one, and they will have 25 minutes to punch one another’s lights out. Referee Herb Dean will try to stay away from any errant blows, and he brings them together to bump fists before the last fight of this storied event kicks off. It’s on with the show. Pereira whips a leg kick out to test the water, and Hill responds in kind. Pereira scores another, and Hill kicks him on the inside of the front leg. Pereira checks a low kick, and he skims one off the shin. Hill reaches out with a left hand, and Pereira measures a right. Pereira scores a loud body kick, and Hill darts in to land a solid right hand over the top. Hill turns his hips into low kicks from both sides, and Pereira chops back. Hill grabs Pereira’s wrist while they hand-fight with one another, and Hill prods out a front kick. Pereira gets in a hefty calf kick, and he jabs the body. Hill goes high with his shin, and Pereira blocks it in time. Hill digs a kick to the ribs, and he lances out two left hands. Pereira digs a right to the midsection, and he absorbs kicks on each side of his leg as he tries to check them all. Hill wraps a kick up to the body, and it bounces off the cop. Pereira waves Dean off and unloads a left hand that sends Hill crashing to the mat. Pereira smashes his fallen foe with otherworldly power, and he finishes the job with thunderous hammerfists. Hill completely goes out, and Dean leaps between them when recognizing “Sweet Dreams” is off in dreamland. “Poatan” stands back and motions to his handiwork, pointing at the unconscious Hill. Hill manages to sit up and come to, and he appears to ask Dean what happened as he stands up confused. Pereira’s coach, Glover Teixeira, awards the defending champion with his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt as they celebrate and embrace. Even the stoic Pereira cracks a smile. Ten wins into his MMA career, and Pereira has now won and lost the middleweight belt, and claimed and defended the light heavyweight throne. Pereira declares that he wishes to keep defending this belt, and he also expresses interest in competing at heavyweight—possibly in Rio de Janeiro in a few weeks. When taking photos with his team, Pereira dances a little and lets fly some of his more fun side. With that crushing knockout in the books, UFC 300 has reached its conclusion, and what an event it was. Several year-end awards will likely go to this memorable fight card, and if not, something truly spectacular will need to happen in the next eight months. If and when that happens, we will be there for it. We hope are too.

The Official Result
Alex Pereira def. Jamahal Hill R1 3:14 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Angelo picks Alex Pereira, citing his power and physicality. He notes Hill may be the better striker and Pereira gets hit a lot, but Hill's layoff and injury recovery are concerns. He mentions Hill looked out of shape recently and may not be fully prepared. He acknowledges it wouldn't surprise him if Hill wins.

"I think Alex Bea wins this fight but it would not surprise me if Jamal Hill landed those onws and we just watched Alex get pieced up"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Cody acknowledges this is a flip-flop fight between Hill's volume and Pereira's power. He leans Pereira because he trusts Pereira's preparation and shape, while Hill is coming off a long layoff with an Achilles injury and doesn't appear to be in peak condition. Cody notes Hill has never been knocked down and has a cast iron chin, but Pereira's left hook is a constant threat. He also mentions Hill has zero takedowns in the UFC and Glover Teixeira is in Pereira's corner, providing familiarity. Ultimately, he goes with the power over volume, but admits it could go either way.

"I think I'm leaning Pereira because I want the guy that I know is going to come and put his best foot forward where Hill he's going to fight his hard out but if he's not at 100% if I …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Daniel Vreeland picks Jamahal Hill to win by knockout, citing Hill's superior power and speed, his ability to switch stances to negate Pereira's calf kicks, and his proven durability. He notes that Pereira gets hit often and has been knocked out before, while Hill has never been rocked on the feet. Vreeland also mentions Hill's ground game as a potential factor, but expects a standup war.

wins by KO/TKO
"I'm going and new sweet dreams Jamal Hill"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Daniel Vreeland picks Alex Pereira, citing that the line is great value. He notes that Pereira is a world-class kickboxer and that Hill's best kickboxing opponent might be Johnny Walker. He also mentions that Hill has been injured for over a year and may not be sharp. He believes Pereira's technical striking will be too much for Hill.

"I love the line here I'll take Paha at at such a low line he's just way more dangerous uh scarier fighter than than Hill"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Jeff Fox picks Alex Pereira, agreeing with Vreeland. He notes that Hill was not cleared to train until February, which is alarming. He also mentions that Hill seems convinced he can box with Pereira, but his past fights don't show that level of striking. He believes Pereira's technical striking will be the difference.

"I think he's gonna see the difference here the technical striking of Alex paa you know he got caught one time against isra AIS Anna but like when is paja looked bad boxing anybody else"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Alex Pereira

Pereira is the technically better fighter. Hill is coming back too early from injury and took the fight for the big stage, which will cause bad decisions. Pereira's striking will take advantage and land the check left hook, putting Hill out within two or three rounds.

knockout within two or three rounds
"I think he puts Jamal Hill out within two or three rounds"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Paul agrees with Cody, laying the chalk with Pereira. He notes the strange narrative of Hill immediately contacting Israel Adesanya for advice, which suggests short-notice preparation. Paul points out that throwing volume leaves you open for counters, and Pereira can take your head off at any point. He also mentions Hill has never been hurt or knocked down, so Pereira needs to land the money shot. Paul sees the fight as super competitive but favors Pereira's power and preparation.

"I'm with you, I'm laying the chalk with Alex Pereira but I wouldn't be shocked obviously either way."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

The MMA Guru picks Alex Pereira to win, citing Hill's defensive flaws and long layoff after an Achilles injury. He notes Hill's right hand drops and that Pereira's left hook and low kicks will be key. He worries about Hill's momentum and believes Pereira can find the knockout.

"Alex Pereira is going to win."
Decision (unanimous) (50–44, 50–44, 50–44) R5 5:00 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamahal Hill 0 75 of 160 46% 108 of 196 2 of 17 11% 0 0 3:26
Glover Teixeira 0 232 of 402 57% 248 of 419 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamahal Hill 0 12 of 27 44% 14 of 29 0 of 7 0% 0 0 0:03
Glover Teixeira 0 46 of 85 54% 47 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jamahal Hill 0 21 of 44 47% 28 of 52 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:16
Glover Teixeira 0 51 of 91 56% 52 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Jamahal Hill 0 17 of 30 56% 18 of 31 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:13
Glover Teixeira 0 44 of 82 53% 51 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:34
4 Jamahal Hill 0 18 of 41 43% 18 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Glover Teixeira 0 79 of 120 65% 79 of 120 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
5 Jamahal Hill 0 7 of 18 38% 30 of 43 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:44
Glover Teixeira 0 12 of 24 50% 19 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamahal Hill 75 of 160 46% 52 of 136 19 of 20 4 of 4 65 of 145 5 of 6 5 of 9
Glover Teixeira 232 of 402 57% 180 of 343 42 of 49 10 of 10 188 of 347 18 of 21 26 of 34
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamahal Hill 12 of 27 44% 7 of 21 3 of 4 2 of 2 12 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0
Glover Teixeira 46 of 85 54% 27 of 65 13 of 14 6 of 6 42 of 81 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Jamahal Hill 21 of 44 47% 15 of 38 4 of 4 2 of 2 15 of 37 4 of 4 2 of 3
Glover Teixeira 51 of 91 56% 38 of 77 9 of 10 4 of 4 49 of 87 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Jamahal Hill 17 of 30 56% 13 of 26 4 of 4 0 of 0 17 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Glover Teixeira 44 of 82 53% 41 of 76 3 of 6 0 of 0 24 of 56 1 of 1 19 of 25
4 Jamahal Hill 18 of 41 43% 12 of 35 6 of 6 0 of 0 17 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
Glover Teixeira 79 of 120 65% 65 of 104 14 of 16 0 of 0 68 of 108 11 of 12 0 of 0
5 Jamahal Hill 7 of 18 38% 5 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 12 0 of 0 3 of 6
Glover Teixeira 12 of 24 50% 9 of 21 3 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 15 0 of 0 7 of 9
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Glover Teixeira

Big Brady picks the 43-year-old Teixeira despite age concerns, noting he has been counted out before and keeps winning. He highlights Teixeira's durability, having not been knocked out since 2017, and his excellent grappling and ground and pound. He questions Hill's takedown defense, as he was taken down six times by Thiago Santos. He thinks Teixeira can get takedowns and finish, but has low confidence due to Hill's power. He predicts a finish.

"I'm gonna pick the 43 year old here I'm going to take over the share to get it done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Cody picks Jamahal Hill but admits he is not super confident. He thinks Hill is one of the best strikers in the division with power and calmness, and believes Hill will clip Glover in the later rounds after giving up early rounds. He acknowledges Glover's massive grappling advantage and Hill's poor takedown defense, but thinks Hill's youth and striking will prevail. He suggests live betting Glover after losing early rounds.

suggests live betting Glover after losing early rounds; mentions total set at 1.5 rounds, over 2.5 rounds at +180, Glover's takedowns at 2.5 on PrizePicks, Hill's strikes at 40.5
"I'm gonna take Jamal hell but what I will admit is that if you were gonna bet Glover just like you said maybe better while the fight's going on maybe hit that live bet"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Connor picks Jamahal Hill, citing youth, power, and the likelihood that Glover gets hurt and finished early. He compares it to the Anthony Johnson loss where Glover was iced in 13 seconds. Connor admits Glover is better everywhere but feels Hill's speed and one-two power could end it quickly. He acknowledges that if the fight goes past one round, Glover likely wins.

Connor mentions Hill's odds at -133 but does not place a bet.
"I'm gonna pick Jamal Hill. The youth, the power, Glover getting hurt all the time, his ability to just stick on a one two and do it really fast and early."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Glover Teixeira

Paul picks Glover Teixeira but is very cautious, admitting bias because he loves Glover. He notes Glover's massive grappling advantage and great wrestling, but acknowledges he is long in the tooth and gives up speed. He sees arguments for both sides and is not betting pre-fight, but might bet live if things go well. He thinks Glover can win via grappling and top control.

not betting pre-fight, might bet live; mentions Glover's takedowns
"I'm not gonna bet it because we are closer to a pickum I see the arguments for both sides I'm picking Glover maybe because I'm a little bit biased and love the guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Glover Teixeira

The Guru picks Teixeira as an underdog. He rewatched Hill vs Santos and noted Santos took Hill down six times, and Hill gave up bad positions. Teixeira's grappling is superior, and he stayed in shape after a December fight was canceled. The Guru criticizes Hill's physique, saying he had a 'huge belly' in fight announcement videos. He predicts Teixeira will find a rear-naked choke in the second or third round, or possibly after rocking Hill on the feet.

submission (rear-naked choke)
"I'm gonna go with Glover to Shara here he has been made an underdog in this matchup so I have to pick Clover to Shara over Jamal Hill"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Glover Teixeira

Zane picks Glover Teixeira, arguing that Glover is a much better fighter overall—better striker, wrestler, and grappler. He notes that Jamahal Hill has poor defense, walks in straight lines, and has never faced a grappler of Glover's caliber. Zane believes Glover's improved boxing and ability to survive being hurt will carry him to victory, especially if the fight goes past the first round.

Glover Teixeira opened at +130, dropped to +100, now +110; Hill opened at -150, now -133. Zane mentions Glover's odds movement but does not place a bet.
"I'm for sure picking Glover Teixeira. I think really if he just gets much much older overnight than he already is uh or Jamal Hill gets very lucky and lands a Rumble Johnson style uppercut or something."
WIN vs Thiago Santos
TKO (punches and elbows) R4 2:31 · UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill · Aug 06, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamahal Hill 0 53 of 94 56% 56 of 98 6 of 20 30% 0 0 5:54
Thiago Santos 0 89 of 152 58% 130 of 194 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamahal Hill 0 10 of 18 55% 11 of 19 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:23
Thiago Santos 0 9 of 30 30% 18 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jamahal Hill 0 16 of 38 42% 16 of 38 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:41
Thiago Santos 0 31 of 52 59% 35 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
3 Jamahal Hill 0 8 of 11 72% 10 of 14 5 of 11 45% 0 0 3:50
Thiago Santos 0 9 of 11 81% 23 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
4 Jamahal Hill 0 19 of 27 70% 19 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 40 of 59 67% 54 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamahal Hill 53 of 94 56% 28 of 66 13 of 16 12 of 12 43 of 82 8 of 9 2 of 3
Thiago Santos 89 of 152 58% 68 of 131 12 of 12 9 of 9 52 of 107 19 of 21 18 of 24
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamahal Hill 10 of 18 55% 1 of 8 3 of 4 6 of 6 9 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 9 of 30 30% 5 of 26 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 26 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Jamahal Hill 16 of 38 42% 9 of 29 5 of 7 2 of 2 14 of 35 2 of 2 0 of 1
Thiago Santos 31 of 52 59% 19 of 40 5 of 5 7 of 7 28 of 48 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Jamahal Hill 8 of 11 72% 6 of 9 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 6 3 of 3 2 of 2
Thiago Santos 9 of 11 81% 5 of 7 3 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 4 7 of 7 0 of 0
4 Jamahal Hill 19 of 27 70% 12 of 20 4 of 4 3 of 3 17 of 24 2 of 3 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 40 of 59 67% 39 of 58 0 of 0 1 of 1 17 of 29 5 of 6 18 of 24
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Angelo picks Jamahal Hill, citing Thiago Santos's decline in power and speed since his injuries. He notes Hill's excellent striking differential and accuracy, and believes he can outpoint Santos. However, he acknowledges Santos's durability and championship-round experience, leaving some uncertainty if the fight goes deep. He cannot bet on 'survive logic' and sticks with Hill.

"given what tiago santos has become we got to go with jamal hill here right"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Big Brady picks Jamahal Hill, noting his high volume and power compared to Thiago Santos, who has been low-volume and inactive in his recent fights. He acknowledges Santos's power and the fact that Hill is hittable, but believes Hill's pressure and output will overwhelm Santos. He predicts a second or third-round knockout win for Hill, expressing hope that Hill makes it exciting after Santos's recent boring performances.

second or third round knockout prediction
"i like jamal hill i'd like to help you win by knockout i'll say like second or third round knockout here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Cody also picks Hill, citing Santos's decline since the Jones fight and his knee injuries. He notes that Santos has become a shell of himself, with low output and a tendency to wait for counters. Cody believes Hill's length, southpaw stance, and left hand will be key, and that Hill can carry his power into later rounds. He predicts a late stoppage or decision for Hill.

Hill over 30.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks; Hill by late stoppage (rounds 4-5) or decision
"I got Hill as well... I'm just not on team Thiago Santos... he's a lot older... since he's come back has just been less than kind."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Daniel Levi picks Jamahal Hill, citing his superior output (nearly double Santos's), power, and heart. He notes Hill's ability to fight in the pocket and force Santos to engage, while Santos has declined since knee surgeries and lacks the output to keep up. Levi is concerned about Santos's power and opportunistic hooks but believes Hill's durability and pace will prevail. He parlayed Hill with Oleksiejczuk to win 2 units.

Parlayed with Michał Oleksiejczuk at -158 to win 2 units
"I gotta go with Jamal Hill here so I took Jamal Hill minus 260 and I parlayed him with... Mija Oleg Zach"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Paul picks Jamahal Hill, noting that Hill is too fast for Thiago Santos. He points out that Santos has been in a decline since his fight with Jon Jones, with knee injuries and poor performances. Paul is concerned about the -315 price but still sees Hill as the rightful favorite. He mentions that Hill's speed and power should be enough to win, possibly by late stoppage or decision.

Hill over 30.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks; Hill by decision or late stoppage (rounds 4-5)
"I think Jamahal Hill is a little bit too fast for Thiago Santos... Hill will be the pick don't know if I'm gonna get there from a betting perspective."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

The MMA Guru picks Jamahal Hill by second-round TKO. He notes Santos's age (38) and lack of leg kicks since injury. He believes Hill's rangy punching and pressure will be effective, and compares to David Branch's KO of Santos. He expects Hill to land a one-two against the cage after a competitive first round.

second round tko
"i'm gonna go jamal hill... i'm gonna see jamal hill pressuring him down walking him down landing some good combos and then maybe just like landing a good straight one two right on thiago santos against the cage at the …"
WIN vs Johnny Walker
KO (punch) R1 2:55 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill · Feb 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamahal Hill 0 12 of 25 48% 12 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Johnny Walker 1 6 of 19 31% 7 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamahal Hill 0 12 of 25 48% 12 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Johnny Walker 1 6 of 19 31% 7 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamahal Hill 12 of 25 48% 4 of 15 3 of 5 5 of 5 12 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 6 of 19 31% 5 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamahal Hill 12 of 25 48% 4 of 15 3 of 5 5 of 5 12 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 6 of 19 31% 5 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 13, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Angelo picks Johnny Walker but is hesitant, noting that Walker's last fight against Thiago Santos was too controlled and he lost his identity. He believes Walker needs to return to his unorthodox, high-volume style to win, otherwise Jamahal Hill will piece him up. Angelo thinks the disappointing loss may motivate Walker to revert to his natural style.

"i do like johnny walker here i feel like that last fight was such a big disappointing loss to him that he's going to come out here and he's going to try to be who he was"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Big Brady picks Jamahal Hill, citing his high output, durability, and cardio. He notes Walker's striking defense is poor and his chin is a concern. He believes Walker's only path is to be wild, but Hill can handle it. He predicts Hill wins by second round knockout.

win by second round knockout
"give me jamal hill to win I'll take him to win my second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Cody picks Jamahal Hill based on Hill's superior hands and power, noting that Johnny Walker has a questionable chin and has been knocked out quickly in the past. He highlights Hill's sharp jab and right hand, and his legitimate KO victories over durable opponents like Jimmy Crute and Alvin St. Pruitt. Cody also points out that Walker's explosiveness has been diminished since training with John Kavanagh, and that Walker's cardio and takedown defense are poor. He believes Hill can keep the fight standing and eventually clip Walker.

"just feel like yamaha hill's got the better hands he's gonna clip him at some point and i just don't love johnny walker's ability to take a punch"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Daniel Levi is confident in Jamahal Hill, citing his volume, body work, and discipline. He notes that Hill has the output of a smaller fighter but at 6'4" with an 80-inch reach, and that his only loss came from overconfidence on the ground, which Walker won't exploit. Levi believes Hill will knock out Walker, likely in the first round, and that Walker hasn't looked the same since the Corey Anderson fight.

under 1.5 rounds mentioned as dog money, but not explicitly bet; Hill by KO in first round predicted
"i think he comes out here and knocks out johnny walker... i'm going first round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Hill is the more active striker and will pressure Walker, who tends to be hesitant. Hill's power and sniping ability should find Walker's chin. Walker has knockout power too, but Hill is the more likely finisher. The under 2.5 rounds is a strong play, as Hill should get the KO early. Hill by KO at -130 and round props are also attractive.

under 2.5 rounds (-175), Hill by KO (-130), Hill round 1 (+200), Hill round 2 (+500), Hill by KO in rounds 1-3 (+115)
"i think i took an alternate under here under two and a half rounds at minus 175"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing that the fight comes down to volume and durability. He notes that Walker is a low-volume striker (around 50 significant strikes per fight) while Hill has shown high output, landing over 100 significant strikes in a fight. Paul also mentions that Walker's recent performances have been boring and ineffective, and that Hill hasn't been rocked in his fights. He is confident in Hill but doesn't love the -250 price.

"i think it really comes down to volume and one guy over the course of three rounds is probably going to land you know 70 significant strikes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

The MMA Guru picks Jamahal Hill to win by first-round KO. He criticizes Johnny Walker's range control and chin, believing Hill's pressure and power will be too much. He predicts Hill will march Walker down, land combinations, and put him away with a left hook as Walker throws a front kick. He notes Hill's confidence and momentum from his last win, and that Walker has a chin problem.

first round ko (left hook)
"i'm gonna go with jamal hill in the main event i'm going to go with jamal hill by first round ko in the main event"
WIN vs Jimmy Crute
KO (punches) R1 0:48 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo · Dec 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamahal Hill 0 6 of 12 50% 6 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jimmy Crute 1 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamahal Hill 0 6 of 12 50% 6 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jimmy Crute 1 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamahal Hill 6 of 12 50% 2 of 7 2 of 3 2 of 2 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jimmy Crute 4 of 10 40% 2 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 7 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamahal Hill 6 of 12 50% 2 of 7 2 of 3 2 of 2 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jimmy Crute 4 of 10 40% 2 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 7 2 of 2 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Angelo picks Jimmy Crute, citing his wrestling and takedown accuracy. He notes Hill is a good striker but lacks one-punch KO power, so Crute can eat volume and work takedowns. Angelo likes Crute at 9200 on DraftKings.

Over 1.5 rounds bet (1 unit)
"i like jimmy to win i see a good amount of takedowns here so i actually like the 9 200 bucks"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Big Brady picks Jimmy Crute to win by submission. He highlights Crute's elite grappling, noting he submitted Paul Craig (who rarely gets submitted) and has a BJJ black belt. He criticizes Jamahal Hill's poor takedown defense, citing how easily Darko Stosic took him down. Brady believes if Crute fights smart and takes Hill down, he will submit him. He also notes Hill's striking defense is suspect (45%) and that Crute's striking is decent, but the path to victory is clearly on the ground.

by submission
"give me jimmy crew to win by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Cody picks Hill confidently, noting Hill's length, southpaw stance, and power. He thinks Crute's ring IQ is questionable and that Hill will keep the fight standing. Cody believes Hill's striking advantage and ability to avoid takedowns will lead to a win, and that the plus money is good value.

"i gotta think that hill edges them out um again this is a plus 140 hill this is a close fight this is the fight that i would label probably as a dogger pass"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 2, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Daniel Levi picks Jamahal Hill to win a decision, citing Hill's high striking output for a light heavyweight, his fluidity, speed, and length. He notes that Crute is hittable and that Hill can piece him up on the feet. He acknowledges Crute's ground game but believes Hill can defend takedowns and get back up if taken down, referencing Hill's get-up game from his debut.

"I think jamal pieces him up with way too much volume and length and fluidity and speed on the fee so give me jamal hill to win a decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Jacob picks Jimmy Crute, agreeing with Dan that Crute should wrestle and submit Hill. He notes Hill is a good boxer but Crute can take him down easily. Jacob warns that if Crute tries to strike, he will get pieced up.

"wrestle jimmy and you'll get the win just like dan said"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jimmy Crute

I lean Crute. He has a huge grappling advantage and should be able to take Hill down. Hill's defensive grappling is suspect, and he was submitted by Paul Craig. Crute has good top game and submission skills. However, I'm not fully confident because Hill is the better striker and could keep it standing. I like Crute by submission at plus 250.

Crute by submission +250
"i think it's the crew by submission honestly croot submission plus 250"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Paul leans towards Hill as an underdog, citing Hill's striking volume and durability. He notes that Crute made a mistake by standing with Anthony Smith instead of wrestling, and that Hill's grappling looked decent against Paul Craig. Paul believes Hill can outwork Crute on the feet and that the plus money is worth taking.

"i'm gonna lean towards hill here i think um if he does get taken to the ground his grappling looked good enough or at least his heart looked good enough that he wasn't gonna tap"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2021 (fight day)
Jimmy Crute

The MMA Guru picks Jimmy Crute to win by first-round kimura. He expects Crute to land leg kicks and feints, then set up a takedown after Hill leans back from a hook. Crute will get side control and eventually isolate the arm for his signature kimura, similar to his win over Paul Craig.

first round kimura
"i'm gonna go with jimmy croots by first round kimura"
LOSS vs Paul Craig
TKO (elbows and punches) R1 1:59 · UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · Jun 12, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paul Craig 0 23 of 25 92% 43 of 47 0 of 1 0% 3 0 0:03
Jamahal Hill 0 1 of 8 12% 3 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paul Craig 0 23 of 25 92% 43 of 47 0 of 1 0% 3 0 0:03
Jamahal Hill 0 1 of 8 12% 3 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paul Craig 23 of 25 92% 18 of 20 4 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 7 0 of 0 17 of 18
Jamahal Hill 1 of 8 12% 0 of 4 0 of 2 1 of 2 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paul Craig 23 of 25 92% 18 of 20 4 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 7 0 of 0 17 of 18
Jamahal Hill 1 of 8 12% 0 of 4 0 of 2 1 of 2 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Big Brady picks Jamahal Hill to win by first-round knockout, citing his massive striking advantage, volume, and cardio. He acknowledges Craig's dangerous submission game but believes Hill's takedown defense and get-up ability will keep the fight standing. He warns against putting Hill in parlays due to the submission threat.

Hill by KO, round 1
"i'll take hill i'll take hill to knock out paul craig in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Cody is confident in Hill, noting his striking, reach, and power. He thinks Hill will stuff Craig's takedowns and knock him out, likely inside the distance. He likes the under 1.5 rounds and Hill by knockout. He also mentions Craig's weak chin and the level of competition Craig has faced.

under 1.5 rounds (+100), Hill by knockout (-165)
"i got hill i got hill by knockout i also like the under one and a half"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Daniel Levi picks Jamahal Hill to knock out Paul Craig, praising Hill's output and technique. He notes that Hill has a high-volume striking style and has shown good takedown defense. He thinks Craig's chin-up tendency when pressured will be exploited. He believes Hill is a future contender and will make a statement.

by knockout
"i think saturday night uh he's going to make a big statement i think he's going to knock out paul craig"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2021 (fight day)
Jamahal Hill

Hill has a massive striking advantage with diverse attacks, including a vicious body kick. Craig's only path is to get the fight to the ground, but Hill's takedown defense and submission defense should keep it standing. Hill will land devastating shots and likely knock Craig out in the first or second round.

Hill by KO/TKO (first or second round)
"I think that Jamal Hill will go out there and showcase some good takedown defense... he will be able to land the bigger and much better shots on the feet and I think ultimately he'll be able to put down …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Paul agrees Hill is a confident pick. He notes Hill's size, southpaw stance, and power, and thinks he will finish Craig inside the distance. He likes the under 1.5 rounds and plans to parlay Hill with Edwards.

under 1.5 rounds (+100)
"jamal hill is the pick i don't love the price"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

The MMA Guru picks Jamahal Hill, calling it an obvious prediction. He criticizes Paul Craig's wins over an aged Shogun Rua and notes Hill's superior striking, takedown defense, and head movement. He predicts a first-round KO via straight shot, citing Hill's reach and youth.

first round ko
"i'm going with jimmy whole hill i think it's a very very obvious prediction"
Expert Picks (6)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Big Brady picks Jamahal Hill to win by first-round knockout, citing his massive striking advantage, volume, and cardio. He acknowledges Craig's dangerous submission game but believes Hill's takedown defense and get-up ability will keep the fight standing. He warns against putting Hill in parlays due to the submission threat.

Hill by KO, round 1
"i'll take hill i'll take hill to knock out paul craig in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Cody is confident in Hill, noting his striking, reach, and power. He thinks Hill will stuff Craig's takedowns and knock him out, likely inside the distance. He likes the under 1.5 rounds and Hill by knockout. He also mentions Craig's weak chin and the level of competition Craig has faced.

under 1.5 rounds (+100), Hill by knockout (-165)
"i got hill i got hill by knockout i also like the under one and a half"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Daniel Levi picks Jamahal Hill to knock out Paul Craig, praising Hill's output and technique. He notes that Hill has a high-volume striking style and has shown good takedown defense. He thinks Craig's chin-up tendency when pressured will be exploited. He believes Hill is a future contender and will make a statement.

by knockout
"i think saturday night uh he's going to make a big statement i think he's going to knock out paul craig"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2021 (fight day)
Jamahal Hill

Hill has a massive striking advantage with diverse attacks, including a vicious body kick. Craig's only path is to get the fight to the ground, but Hill's takedown defense and submission defense should keep it standing. Hill will land devastating shots and likely knock Craig out in the first or second round.

Hill by KO/TKO (first or second round)
"I think that Jamal Hill will go out there and showcase some good takedown defense... he will be able to land the bigger and much better shots on the feet and I think ultimately he'll be able to put down Paul Craig in this fight."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Paul agrees Hill is a confident pick. He notes Hill's size, southpaw stance, and power, and thinks he will finish Craig inside the distance. He likes the under 1.5 rounds and plans to parlay Hill with Edwards.

under 1.5 rounds (+100)
"jamal hill is the pick i don't love the price"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

The MMA Guru picks Jamahal Hill, calling it an obvious prediction. He criticizes Paul Craig's wins over an aged Shogun Rua and notes Hill's superior striking, takedown defense, and head movement. He predicts a first-round KO via straight shot, citing Hill's reach and youth.

first round ko
"i'm going with jimmy whole hill i think it's a very very obvious prediction"