Career Averages - Terrance McKinney
Career Averages - Matt Frevola
Terrance McKinney
Matt Frevola
Terrance McKinney - Fight History
AJ picks Terrance McKinney to win by knockout in the first round. He expects McKinney to blitz King Green early, noting Green keeps his hands down. He suggests McKinney wins under half a round by KO as a live prop.
AJ thinks McKinney will win by first-round blitz, typical of his style. He notes that if McKinney wins, it's almost certainly round one, and the fight is expected to end in round one. He suggests betting McKinney round one and having a live bet option for later rounds. He also mentions King Green decision at +1300 as a meme bet.
AJ picks McKinney to win by first-round blitz, citing Green's hands-down defense as a major vulnerability against McKinney's explosive start. He believes McKinney's speed and power will catch Green early, and that Green's durability is questionable. AJ notes that if Green survives the initial storm, he could win, but he favors McKinney's early finish.
AJ picks Terrance McKinney, citing Green's three-win streak as weak (decisions over Lance Gibson, Zahuber, and a washed Jeremy Stephens). He worries about Green's low hands and McKinney's blitz, and believes if Green survives the first minute, he becomes a live betting spot. He also notes Green should be the favorite or even odds but is plus 120.
AJ is on the fence about this fight, calling it a 50/50. He notes Green is fun to watch but McKinney's quick slime out is live. He mentions the under 1.5 rounds at minus 360 but does not commit to a winner.
AJ picks Terrance McKinney by first-round finish, citing McKinney's explosive blitzing style and King Green's low-hand defense. He believes McKinney's early onslaught will overwhelm Green, who is nearly 40 and has been knocked out before. He notes that if Green survives the first three minutes, he likely wins, but expects McKinney to land a knockout or submission early.
Angelo picks McKinney due to his early danger and tools, but has low confidence because of respect for King Green's experience and durability. He notes McKinney has never seen a third round and tends to gas. He thinks McKinney wins early or loses.
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney because he is more talented, faster, and hits harder. He acknowledges King Green is the better fighter in terms of experience and high-level competition, but believes McKinney's raw talent and athleticism will overwhelm Green early. He expects the fight not to last long and thinks the odds should be closer.
Big Brady picks the under 1.5 rounds, noting that all 13 of Terrance McKinney's UFC fights have gone under 1.5 rounds. He highlights McKinney's extreme first-round finishing ability but poor cardio, leading to a likely early finish either by McKinney or King Green. He suggests McKinney wins under 0.5 rounds if he wins, but does not pick a side on the moneyline.
Big Brady does not pick a winner but bets on the under 0.5 rounds at +200 for 1 unit, citing McKinney's 13-13 record under 1.5 rounds and his tendency to either finish early or get finished. He also includes the under 1.5 rounds in a parlay. He does not explicitly pick a fighter to win, focusing on the round total.
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by first-round knockout. He likes McKinney's forward pressure and power, and criticizes King Green's hands-down style, which has led to knockouts before. He notes McKinney's cardio issues but believes he will finish within the first two and a half minutes. He thinks Green's recent wins are over lower-level competition.
Big Brady is confident McKinney wins by early knockout, likely in the first minute or two. He notes Green's hands-down style is dangerous against McKinney's pressure. He points out that McKinney has never won a fight lasting more than 2.5 minutes in the UFC, and if he doesn't finish early, he often gets finished himself. He plans to bet the under if the price is right, expecting people to bet the over as a 'sick fetish'.
Cody picks Bobby Green, emphasizing McKinney's lack of heart and durability. He believes Green's experience, power, and submission game will be key. He notes Green's ability to survive the initial onslaught and then take over.
Daniel Levi picks Bobby Green to weather the storm and finish Terrance McKinney, despite Green's age (39). He compares the matchup to McKinney's fight with Eshmael Bonfam, where Bonfam was boxing McKinney up before getting caught. Levi acknowledges McKinney's kill-or-be-killed style and notes that both fighters could win inside the distance, but he has a soft spot for Green and expects him to find a finish.
Jacob picks King Green because he believes McKinney is not that good and can be overwhelmed early. He notes that Green has wrestling of his own and knows how to weather the storm. He thinks Green is a better fighter and if he survives the early onslaught, he will win. He also mentions that McKinney has no cardio and no chin, and that Green is a precise counter boxer.
Lucrative James leans toward Terrance McKinney via KO, calling the fight a coin flip due to McKinney's explosive but inconsistent style. He believes McKinney's athleticism and speed will overwhelm an aging Bobby Green, whose chin is fading. He suggests betting on under 1.5 rounds or specific round-one finishes rather than the moneyline.
The host loves playing McKinney under 1.5 rounds because they always hit. He expects McKinney's speed, explosivity, and power to find the chin of Green early, resulting in a round one knockout.
The host picks McKinney by first-round knockout, citing his power and the fact that all his UFC fights have ended under 1.5 rounds. He recommends betting the under 1.5 rounds regardless of the price, as McKinney's volatility makes the moneyline risky.
Paul picks Bobby Green at plus money, viewing it as a coin flip. He notes McKinney's wild style and tendency to fade, while Green has power and submission threats. He also plans to bet under 1.5 rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney to win by KO in the first round. He notes McKinney's speed and power, and criticizes Bobby Green's hands-down defense. He thinks McKinney will be too dangerous early and will chin Green. He also mentions a personal anecdote about McKinney's strength.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 13 of 27 | 48% | 12 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 22 |
| Kyle Nelson | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 13 of 27 | 48% | 12 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 22 |
| Kyle Nelson | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: McKinney (-170); Nelson (+140)
Round 1
If Sherdog still ran the annual All-Violence Team, “T.Wrecks” McKinney (17-8, 7-5 UFC) would likely be a lifetime member, as he has never gone the distance as a pro. He will get to trade blows with Canada’s Nelson (17-6-1, 5-5-1 UFC) in what should be a banger. The lightweights draw oversight from referee Herb Dean, who has donned his proverbial hard hat ahead of what’s about to come. There is not a glove touch before the trail of devastation begins.
In five seconds, McKinney lands three punches and gets Nelson’s attention, tripping during the third when his lead leg gets kicked. Nelson swings back but whiffs, and
McKinney boots him in the raised guard 11 seconds in and puts the Canadian down on the ground. McKinney pounces, and he proceeds to beat Nelson down with a seemingly unending barrage of right hands and hammerfists.
Nelson shells up and is protecting his face from the worst of the damage, but McKinney is the bus that couldn’t slow down and continues clobbering Nelson while Dean is right there watching on. As McKinney keeps sledgehammering “The Monster,” and Dean has no choice to intervene as Nelson is not intelligently defending himself or moving in a way to improve his position. Upwards of 20 blows connect before Dean halts the content, and “T.Wrecks” has done it again. It will not set a new personal record—that will remain with his seven-second destructions of Matt Frevola and Jeff Coleman—but it is another first-round stoppage on his ledger and a very small amount of work after a lengthy camp.
The Official Result
Terrance McKinney def. Kyle Nelson R1 0:24 via TKO (Head Kick and Punches)
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging his cardio and chin issues. He believes McKinney is the better striker, wrestler, and more powerful, and hopes he puts on a show at home. He admits he went against his own rule of not betting on McKinney and placed a half-unit bet at -141.
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by first-round knockout. He expects a car crash of a fight, noting both fighters lack durability and have been finished often. He believes McKinney's early pressure and power will be too much for Kyle Nelson, who has been finished in four losses. He thinks McKinney will knock him out in the first few minutes.
Cody picks Nelson, believing McKinney's early explosiveness will fade and Nelson's durability and cardio will take over. He also mentions inside information from Nelson's training partner.
Connor picks Nelson, noting that McKinney is only dangerous in the first round and concedes when he can't get an immediate finish. He points out that McKinney has only won one fight outside the first three minutes in his entire career. Nelson is susceptible early but if he survives, McKinney gives up. Connor says you can't pick a competent fighter to lose to McKinney.
Daniel acknowledges McKinney's first-round finishing ability but is wary of his tendency to fade if he doesn't get the early KO. He picks McKinney but suggests live betting Nelson if the fight goes past two minutes.
The host sees this as a coin flip: McKinney is explosive and dangerous early but has terrible cardio and has never been to a decision; Nelson is slow and hittable but has power and can survive the first round. The implied probabilities (65-40) offer no margin on either side, so the host passes entirely.
The host expects McKinney's explosive power and early aggression to overwhelm Nelson, leading to a first-round knockout. He notes McKinney's tendency to finish early and that all his UFC fights have ended under 1.5 rounds. He is less confident in betting McKinney straight due to his style's volatility but likes the under 1.5 rounds prop.
Paul agrees, noting McKinney's history of gassing and Nelson's ability to survive early storms. He expects Nelson to win after the first round.
The MMA Guru picks Kyle Nelson using reverse psychology, as he often picks McKinney to win by first-round TKO but McKinney fumbles. He believes McKinney will wobble Nelson early but then fade, allowing Nelson to take over in the second and third rounds with elbows and pressure. He notes McKinney's inconsistency.
Zane agrees, stating that McKinney's pattern is clear: he comes in keyed up and if he doesn't finish early, he gives up. He compares McKinney to the ID of fighters like McGregor and Pyfer. Nelson is a competent fighter who can survive the early storm. Zane notes that Nelson could lose if he gets caught early, but otherwise McKinney has no answer.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 31 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Duncan | 1 | 38 of 55 | 69% | 53 of 75 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 31 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Duncan | 1 | 38 of 55 | 69% | 53 of 75 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 31 of 57 | 54% | 26 of 50 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 45 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 |
| Chris Duncan | 38 of 55 | 69% | 36 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 20 | 6 of 8 | 22 of 27 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 31 of 57 | 54% | 26 of 50 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 45 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 |
| Chris Duncan | 38 of 55 | 69% | 36 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 20 | 6 of 8 | 22 of 27 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Duncan (-170), McKinney (+142)
Round 1
Marc Goddard is the referee. McKinney walks Duncan into the fence and lands a massive knee followed by a head kick. That sets off a wild exchange where McKinney appears to get the best of the brawl by rocking his adversary with several heavy punches. A rocked Duncan wisely shoots out of desperation, and he somehow gets McKinney down. McKinney is up in short order, and he lands an elbow and a knee. Duncan, who still looks to be on shaky legs, somehow rocks McKinney with a right hand at range. They continue to trade with reckless aggression and just when it seems like Duncan is reeling, he rocks his foe with a wicked elbow in close quarters. McKinney crumbles to the floor and Duncan tees off with a series of unanswered punches. Goddard is taking a close look as the assault continues. Duncan’s punches aren’t especially powerful, though, so McKinney is getting some leeway. McKinney doesn’t seem to have much left, and the Scot decides to shift gears.
Duncan locks up an anaconda choke and applies the squeeze. McKinney taps in short order
, ending a wild bout that lived up to its violence potential.
The Official Result
Chris Duncan def. Terrance McKinney via Submission (Anaconda Choke) R1 2:30
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging his poor durability and cardio. He believes McKinney is incredibly dangerous early and can get the fight to the ground to find a finish. He notes that Chris Duncan is extremely durable and often comes back from being hurt, but Angelo thinks McKinney's early explosiveness will be enough. He advises against betting due to the high risk.
Big Brady picks Chris Duncan, noting McKinney's tendency to fade after early bursts and his seven career finishes. He highlights Duncan's improved ground game and chin, and expects Duncan to weather the early storm and knock out McKinney late in the first round.
Cody leans toward McKinney, citing his explosive start and finishing ability. He notes that McKinney's fights are usually over in the first round and that Duncan has shown a questionable chin. He mentions that if McKinney doesn't finish early, Duncan's cardio advantage could come into play, but he trusts McKinney's early burst.
Connor picks Chris Duncan, noting that Duncan has improved significantly at ATT, developing a calm, consistent striking game with good shot selection and power. He contrasts McKinney's all-gas-no-brakes style that fades after two minutes, and believes Duncan has the answers to McKinney's early blitz.
Daniel picks Duncan, reasoning that if he survives McKinney's first-round onslaught, he will take over. He notes McKinney has never been past the first round and fades, while Duncan has shown durability and finishing ability. He sees Duncan winning by knockout or submission in later rounds.
Lucrative James acknowledges his bias as a friend of Chris Duncan but provides detailed reasoning. He believes McKinney's only chance is an early finish, while Duncan's physicality, cardio, and improving grappling defense will carry him through. He notes Duncan's training with Grant Dawson and focus on back-take defense. He predicts Duncan wins inside the distance, likely by KO.
The host acknowledges the recent love for McKinney but expects Duncan to take advantage of McKinney's overaggressive style and find a finish within one and a half rounds.
Paul picks Duncan, emphasizing his multiple paths to victory. He notes that McKinney's win condition is a first-round finish, while Duncan has power, a guillotine choke, and cardio. He mentions that Duncan trains at American Top Team and has prepared for McKinney's wrestling. He believes if McKinney doesn't finish early, Duncan will take over.
The Guru picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging Duncan may be the better fighter. He believes McKinney's speed and first-round explosiveness will catch Duncan, who is hittable early. The Guru predicts a first-round TKO, possibly in the first minute.
Zane picks Chris Duncan, emphasizing that McKinney has never won a UFC fight outside the first two minutes and loses when his initial blitz fails. He notes Duncan's improved striking and power, and believes Duncan can weather the early storm and take over. Zane thinks the odds should be wider in Duncan's favor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: McKinney (-185), Borshchev (+154)
Round 1
Fans should be treated to a delight with this lightweight smash-em-up derby. In the one corner stands McKinney (16-7, 6-4 UFC), who has reached the third round just one time in 23 pro outings. In the other is brick-fisted Team Alpha Male product Borshchev (8-5-1, 3-4-1 UFC), who is looking to even his promotional record to .500 should he get his hand raised tonight. Bettors and prognosticators expect this one should not hear the final bell, with odds hovering around -800 to -900 that it ends inside the distance. If that is the case, referee Chris Tognoni will need to be on his A game to intervene at a moment’s notice. Gloves are touched before they are traded.
Borshchev introduces himself with a spinning back kick that plants on the ribcage of McKinney, who then shoots for a double that sends them flying. McKinney gets on top and wraps up an anaconda choke as soon as they hit the ground, and Borshchev is in the danger zone in a hurry.
“T. Wrecks” uses the submission to roll the Team Alpha Male fighter over to his back, where he assumes full mount and transitions to a guillotine choke. The choke is fastened as tight as can be, and Borshchev has his arms trapped and flails his legs to try to buck himself out. His head starts to turn a shade of red that matches McKinney’s shorts, and before he is put to sleep, he surrenders.
Just like that, the fight is over, and McKinney stands up, looks at the camera and smiles while shrugging. The fighters hug it out after the brief but emphatic performance, waiting nearly as long for the official decision to be read as it took for McKinney to win the fight.
The Official Result
Terrance McKinney def. Viacheslav Borshchev R1 0:55 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney because he believes McKinney's early explosiveness will overwhelm Viacheslav Borshchev, who is older and may not be as durable as before. He notes that McKinney is reliable in that he either finishes early or loses, and he thinks McKinney will come out like a bat out of hell and get the job done. However, he admits he is picking against Borshchev more than for McKinney, and he will monitor the odds for a good betting spot.
Big Brady acknowledges McKinney is the rightful favorite due to his wrestling and power, but he is hesitant because both fighters have questionable durability. He notes Borshchev has terrible takedown defense and was dropped by Chase Hooper, but McKinney's cardio is atrocious and his durability is also suspect. Brady thinks McKinney will land first and win by first-round knockout, but if it leaves the first round, McKinney is in trouble.
Connor picks McKinney, acknowledging Borshchev's durability but noting that Borshchev has been getting worse and more indecisive. McKinney's early explosiveness should catch Borshchev, and if he finishes early, he wins. However, Connor admits it's a risky pick.
The host notes McKinney's tendency for early finishes, but picks Borshchev to fend off the early grappling and get a TKO finish by the end of the first or early second round.
The host picks Terrance McKinney, citing his underrated grappling as the X-factor. He notes that Borshchev has shown weaknesses in grappling, as seen in his losses to Chase Hooper and others. However, he acknowledges McKinney's tendency to get knocked out spectacularly and sees the fight as a 50/50 on the feet. He believes McKinney will use his wrestling to secure a win.
Zane picks Borshchev, reasoning that McKinney only wins if he finishes in the first round, and Borshchev has never been finished early. Borshchev's durability and McKinney's tendency to fade give Borshchev the edge if he survives the initial onslaught.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 54 of 69 | 78% | 69 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:00 |
| Damir Hadžović | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 54 of 69 | 78% | 69 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:00 |
| Damir Hadžović | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 54 of 69 | 78% | 53 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 46 of 51 |
| Damir Hadžović | 4 of 13 | 30% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 54 of 69 | 78% | 53 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 46 of 51 |
| Damir Hadžović | 4 of 13 | 30% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Lightweights step into the spotlight for the first time, as McKinney (15-7, 5-4 UFC) toes the line against Hadzovic (14-7, 4-5 UFC)—the oldest fighter on the card at 38 years of age. Jason Herzog handles the refereeing duties. We get underway with a glove touch. Body kick from McKinney, followed by a glancing head kick. Two-punch volley from Hadzovic. One-two from McKinney backs up the Bosnian. Hadzovic answers and shoots on a takedown.
McKinney catches a guillotine on the way down and rolls into full mount and unleashes vicious 12-to-6 elbows. He settles on the back and fires away with punches from both hands, prompting the stoppage
.
The Official Result
Terrance McKinney def. Damir Hadzovic—TKO (Punches) 2:01 R1
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite his unreliability, citing his superior talent, wrestling, and striking. He notes that Damir Hadžović is older (38) and not as dangerous. He worries about McKinney's cardio and chin but believes he should win early. He suggests looking at round props rather than betting the moneyline at -335.
Big Brady sees this as an easy matchup for Terrance McKinney, who has great wrestling and BJJ. Damir Hadžović has the worst takedown defense in the UFC and has been submitted before. Brady thinks McKinney will take him down and submit him in the first round, though he notes McKinney has terrible cardio if the fight extends. He predicts a first-round submission.
McKinney has a massive grappling advantage and will look to get the fight to the ground immediately. He is expected to take the back and secure a first-round submission, as he has done in all nine of his UFC fights. The fight is predicted to go under 1.5 rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney to win by TKO in the first round. He believes McKinney has finishing potential while Hadžović does not, and that Hadžović is past his prime and likely to be decisioned. He notes McKinney's losses are brutal but expects him to get the job done here.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Terrance McKinney | 1 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Terrance McKinney | 1 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 5 of 18 | 27% | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Terrance McKinney | 5 of 12 | 41% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 5 of 18 | 27% | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Terrance McKinney | 5 of 12 | 41% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ribovics (-175), McKinney (+145)
Round 1
The matchmakers made sure at least one fight on the billing would practically promise bonkers action for as long as it lasts, and this is that bout. In 21 pro outings, McKinney (15-6, 5-3 UFC) has never heard the final bell, while Ribovics (12-1, 1-1 UFC) has gone the distance twice after 13 appearances. Referee Gary Copeland has donned his hard hat for what could be a wild and crazy first round, although it starts with a calm glove touch. McKinney immediately opens up with a one-two, and he takes a low kick and throws back hard. Ribovics sits down on a power punch, and he absorbs a flush combination and catches McKinney with a knee when “T. Wrecks” bends over. McKinney connects with a right hand, and
Ribovics tosses out a few punches, reaches with a right hand and sets up one of the most beautiful head kicks one can muster as it collides square into McKinney’s head. McKinney is out cold as soon as the shin makes contact, and he collapses lifelessly to his seat as his back bounces into the fence behind him.
Blood leaks out of his nose as he sits there, totally unconscious. Ribovics knows that he does not need to do anything else today, and he proudly walks away as Copeland tends to the snoozing lightweight. Wow, what a finish! “Knockout of the Year” has one more contender in an already crowded list with that absolute gem, and Ribovics has officially announced himself to the lightweight division in a massive way.
The Official Result
Esteban Ribovics def. Terrance McKinney R1 0:37 via KO (Head Kick)
Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as the more durable and dependable fighter, despite Terrance McKinney's raw talent and explosiveness. He notes Ribovics has been taken down 14 times in his last five fights, but McKinney has been finished in every loss. He acknowledges the fight is close to 50/50 and that McKinney could win if he lands early.
Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics to survive McKinney's early storm and finish him in the late first or second round by knockout. He notes McKinney has never won a UFC fight past the first round and tends to gas if he doesn't finish early. Ribovics has durability, cardio, heart, and finishing ability. He expects McKinney to try wrestling, but if he doesn't finish, he will fade and get finished himself.
Cody picks Ribovics, noting that McKinney is a 'glass cannon' who gasses after the first round. He expects McKinney to come out fast and possibly take Ribovics down early, but Ribovics has shown he can survive and come back. Cody likes the under 1.5 rounds prop as parlay fodder, as McKinney fights are usually short. He suggests live betting Ribovics if McKinney wins the first round.
Daniel Vreeland picks Esteban Ribovics, noting that McKinney is dangerous in the first round but fades if he doesn't get the finish. He believes Ribovics can survive the early onslaught and take over late, getting a finish. He mentions Ribovics' ability to get back to his feet and his late-round power.
The host expects McKinney's early explosiveness to overwhelm Ribovics, likely via knockout in round 1. He notes McKinney's tendency to gas but believes Ribovics' takedown defense issues will be exploited. He strongly recommends the under 1.5 rounds as a must-play, and also likes McKinney round 1 prop. The pick is confident for the early finish, though he acknowledges the risk if McKinney fails.
Paul picks Ribovics, agreeing that McKinney is a first-round specialist who fades. He notes that Ribovics has a strong chin and cardio, and can take McKinney's best shots. Paul expects Ribovics to survive the early storm and take over in the second round. He also likes the under 1.5 rounds prop due to McKinney's tendency to finish or get finished quickly.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney as an underdog over Esteban Ribovics. He notes that McKinney has a wrestling background he doesn't always use but can rely on, and that Ribovics is hook-heavy with a reach disadvantage. He references Ribovics' fight with Kamuela Kirk where Kirk took him down and controlled him, suggesting McKinney can do the same. He also trusts McKinney's cardio and power on the feet.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 1 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Brendon Marotte | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 1 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Brendon Marotte | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 19 |
| Brendon Marotte | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 19 |
| Brendon Marotte | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: McKinney (-450), Marotte (+300)
Round 1
Lightweights are next to the stage, as McKinney (14-6, 4-3 UFC) squares off with the once-beaten Marotte (8-1, 0-0 UFC)—a short-notice substitution for Chris Duncan. Marotte, 26, has won three fights in a row. Herb Dean answers the call to preside over the match.
McKinney connects with a clean knee strike in their first exchange, and Marotte hits the deck in a horrendous start to his promotional debut. McKinney trails him to the canvas and unleashes a string of unanswered punches that necessitate a quick stoppage
.
The Official Result
Terrance McKinney def. Brendon Marotte—TKO (Knee and Punches) 0:20 R1
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by first-round submission. He notes McKinney is dangerous early with power and wrestling, while Marotte is a big step up in competition and may not survive the first round. He warns that if Marotte survives, he could win, but expects McKinney to get it done quickly.
Cody picks McKinney, emphasizing that Marotte is a huge underdog with no recent fights and a shaky defense. He notes that McKinney's pressure and power are likely to overwhelm Marotte early. Cody suggests that if Marotte survives the first round, he could be live, but he doubts that will happen.
The host picks Terrance McKinney by round one, noting his explosive power and fast starts. He highlights that 19 of 20 McKinney fights finished under 1.5 rounds. However, he warns against the moneyline due to cardio issues and suggests taking McKinney round one or under 1.5 rounds.
Paul picks McKinney, noting his explosive first-round power and the fact that Marotte has no recent tape and is stepping in on short notice. He acknowledges McKinney's cardio issues but believes Marotte is not durable enough to survive the first round. Paul suggests betting McKinney round 1 or Marotte round 2 as value plays.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney to win by TKO over Brendan Marotte. He dismisses Marotte as an awful regional fighter who beat an 11-20 opponent and went to a split decision with an 8-4 fighter. He notes Marotte trains at New England Cartel but lacks quality wins. He believes McKinney has a speed advantage and won't be outgrappled, and that Marotte's short notice and lack of durability will lead to a finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 30 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Mike Breeden | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 30 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Mike Breeden | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 30 of 47 | 63% | 23 of 36 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 30 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 |
| Mike Breeden | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 30 of 47 | 63% | 23 of 36 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 30 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 |
| Mike Breeden | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: McKinney (-270), Breeden (+220)
Round 1
Referee Chris Tognoni is on the highest of alerts for this lightweight preliminary clash, one that could end in the blink of an eye. A 19-fight veteran, McKinney (13-6, 3-3 UFC) has still never gone the distance, and his foe Breeden (10-5, 0-2 UFC) is no stranger to the knockout himself. Little more needs to be said other than that these two fighters sportingly touch hands before getting after it. McKinney pressures forward immediately, landing a right hand and changing levels for a single. McKinney lets it go and slings a head kick, and it bounds off the guard as Breeden ricochets off the fencing. Breeden comes back at him, and McKinney aims another head kick his way. Breeden kicks the ribs, and McKinney catches it and thinks about taking the fight down, but he releases it so that he can sling a right hand. Breeden throws a right hand, and McKinney blasts him in the body and bends Breeden over. Breeden is in a bad way, and he gets pounded with strikes as McKinney pounces on him. Breeden tries to take him down, but McKinney shuts him down and knees him several times to the chest and midsection.
Breeden is barely still with it, as he gets smashed with punches and knees. Breeden tries to escape, but McKinney is on him, unleashing a fury of fists until Tognoni leaps in between them to stop the fight.
This was a much-needed victory for the promising “T. Wrecks,” who reminds the division that he is still very much here and a force to be reckoned with.
The Official Result
Terrance McKinney def. Mike Breeden R1 1:25 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks McKinney but with low confidence due to cardio concerns and the short-notice turnaround. He notes McKinney has solid wrestling and BJJ but gasses and has a questionable chin. He is staying away from the -400 odds but suggests prop bets like McKinney winning the first round or getting more takedowns.
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by knockout early in the first round, likely within 60 seconds. He notes McKinney's dangerous striking and wrestling but acknowledges his poor cardio and short-notice fight. He believes McKinney will finish Breeden quickly, as Breeden has awful takedown defense and has been finished before. However, he cautions that if McKinney doesn't finish in the first round, he is likely to lose.
Cody picks Breeden by second-round finish as a prop bet, not on the moneyline. He notes McKinney's notorious cardio issues and short-notice fight (27 days after his last fight). He thinks if Breeden survives the first round, he will take over. He recommends a small sprinkle on Breeden round 2 at long odds, or live betting after the first round.
James is leaning toward Breeden as a value play, noting McKinney is a round-one-or-bust fighter and is priced at -300. He thinks Breeden is tough with good cardio and could survive the early storm. James admits McKinney could get back on track but feels the odds are too high for such a volatile fighter. He might bet Breeden.
McKinney has cardio issues but is extremely powerful and athletic early. Breeden is coming off a long layoff and camp change. McKinney's under 1.5 rounds streak is 18 of 19 fights, so the under is a strong play. McKinney should get the TKO in the first round due to his speed and power.
Paul also likes Breeden as a live underdog or round 2/3 prop. He notes McKinney's cardio fades after the first round and that Breeden has shown good cardio in past fights, especially in the third round against Natan Levy. He thinks Breeden can survive the initial onslaught and take over later. He recommends a small bet on Breeden round 2 or 3.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney but is hesitant, acknowledging McKinney's cardio issues and tendency to gas after round one. He believes McKinney is the better fighter and should win by first-round KO if he fights aggressively, but warns that if the fight goes past round one, Breeden could take over. He suggests a live bet on Breeden if McKinney gasses.
Matt Frevola - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Nelson | 1 | 63 of 135 | 46% | 92 of 170 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:11 |
| Matt Frevola | 0 | 43 of 136 | 31% | 60 of 155 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 1:58 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Nelson | 1 | 23 of 55 | 41% | 30 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Matt Frevola | 0 | 15 of 54 | 27% | 19 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 | |
| 2 | Kyle Nelson | 0 | 29 of 57 | 50% | 32 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matt Frevola | 0 | 21 of 69 | 30% | 22 of 70 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 3 | Kyle Nelson | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 30 of 46 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
| Matt Frevola | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 19 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Nelson | 63 of 135 | 46% | 41 of 103 | 14 of 23 | 8 of 9 | 46 of 106 | 7 of 14 | 10 of 15 |
| Matt Frevola | 43 of 136 | 31% | 23 of 103 | 10 of 20 | 10 of 13 | 39 of 129 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Nelson | 23 of 55 | 41% | 17 of 47 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 37 | 1 of 3 | 10 of 15 |
| Matt Frevola | 15 of 54 | 27% | 7 of 37 | 4 of 10 | 4 of 7 | 13 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kyle Nelson | 29 of 57 | 50% | 18 of 39 | 6 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 27 of 51 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Frevola | 21 of 69 | 30% | 13 of 58 | 3 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 66 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kyle Nelson | 11 of 23 | 47% | 6 of 17 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 18 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Frevola | 7 of 13 | 53% | 3 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Frevola (-115); Nelson (+100)
Round 1
To kick off the main card now, two flamethrowing lightweights in desperate need of a win will collide, and referee Dan Miragliotta better don his proverbial hard hat when these two let loose. The finish rates for Nelson (16-6-1, 4-5-1 UFC) and Frevola (11-5-1, 5-5-1 UFC) do not do justice what they have accomplished—and suffered—in the cage. A quick fist bump opens the melee.
Frevola starts things off with a few punches and a leg kick, and the Canadian counters with a right hand over the top. Frevola fires off the same combination, and he stays out of danger from the subsequent right hand aimed at his melon. Frevola swings up a couple head kicks that slide off the guard, and he races in with a looping right hand. Nelson drives him back with a sharp left, and he stabs his foot to Frevola’s torso. When Frevola spins, Nelson sits down on a right hand counter. Both fighters end up slipping on one another and climb back to their feet sheepishly, and it is Frevola who marches down his man and swings two hearty overhand rights. Nelson tanks them well but does not give the American much to think about coming back, allowing Frevola to open up with big, looping strikes. Nelson jabs him back, and slaps “The Steamrolla” in the chin with the ball of his foot.
Frevola advances recklessly, scoring a punch but taking a hard low kick on the way out. Frevola bashes the Canadian in the brainstem with a high kick, and he pump-fakes a knee to hurl a right hand at his man. Nelson sticks his fist out to catch Frevola coming in, so Frevola ducks under, lifts Nelson in the air and slams him down like a sack of potatoes. Nelson hits his knees and looks to stand, so Frevola counters with a guillotine choke setup and a knee to the ribs. Nelson gives his back up, and Frevola takes it and then jumps off so he does not slide off and end up in the wrong spot. Leaning on Nelson, he exudes heavy pressure and knees him in the guts. Nelson spins him around and smacks him with an uppercut, only for Frevola to meet it with a knee. Nelson wings a huge right hand that shakes Frevola up, and this results in a furious brawl where Nelson catches his man a second time and puts him on the canvas. Nelson starts hammering Frevola with his free right hand, and as damage mounts, Miragliotta starts to lean in. The Canadian keeps clubbing Frevola with his same fist again and again, and it appears that Frevola is knocked out and knocked back into consciousness. Miragliotta steps in with seconds to spare, and the fight is over. Until it isn’t. In what may be a worse failure of officiating than the recent Magny-Matthews UFC Perth debacle, somehow the fight is still on, and Frevola gets a minute to recover on his stool. The fight, somehow, continues.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Nelson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nelson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 Nelson
Round 2
The arena is filled with chants cursing out Miragliotta for stealing a knockout win from their fighter, and Round 2 is upon us. Frevola is still stung from the concussive blows he received at the end of the first round, and Nelson takes advantage of that with crisp combinations and a head kick. Every second Frevola remains in this match that should already be over is one more second that he could steal a win. Frevola gathers his thoughts and replies back from the offense with some body work. Nelson has the upper hand with Frevola still wobbled, and he chases him around the Octagon and connects hard on him. Frevola scampers away, so the Canadian gives chase.
Frevola starts to get his bearings more as time progresses, with Nelson’s power appearing to fade a bit, and Frevola does work to the midsection. Nelson chews up the front leg with his kicks, and he stings Frevola with power punches. Frevola gets more comfortable and launches high-amplitude attacks at his adversary. Nelson beats Frevola to the punch frequently and repeatedly, popping Frevola with straight punches and distant kicks. Once more, the round ends, even though this fight should already be over given that the replay clearly showed three seconds on the clock at the end of the first round when Miragliotta put hands on the fighters to separate them. According to the referee, he heard the horn, but it never blew. It does this time.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nelson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nelson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nelson
Round 3
Nelson, with a full head of steam, wants to punish his opponent for still being in this match all this time. Brutalizing the body like a side of beef, Nelson kicks him again and again as Frevola doubles over. Nelson’s kicks open up one to the head, and he rocks Frevola badly. Frevola stumbles around, and Nelson pops him in the chops with a front kick and several power punches. The New Yorker is tough as nails but has been knocked out at least once tonight and has likely received a great deal of brain damage from this mess of a fight. Frevola steels himself, takes everything Nelson throws at him and tries to swing back valiantly. Frevola’s swings have a lot less mustard on them, but he breaks things up by shooting in for a takedown and putting the Canadian on his back.
Nelson has a lot more energy than his adversary, allowing him to scramble out of the bad position and work to his feet. Nelson batters Frevola to the wire, and he uses his momentum to drag Frevola to the floor. Nelson sits up on top in a high mount position, smacking Frevola around any time he can find an opening, and as he does, Frevola miraculously manages to sneak out the back door. The two are slippery and fatigued, to say the least, but they still throw punches and elbows at one another. Nelson manages to turn his man over, and when Frevola is about to get up, Nelson mat returns him. Nelson laces his foe’s legs beneath his own, and Frevola scrambles with every bit of energy he last left. Standing up at the 10-second clapper, Frevola spins with an elbow to ding Nelson. Nelson retreats, and the fight finally ends for real this time. It might be time to have a serious conversation about the state of officiating in our sport, as fighters are being robbed of their livelihoods in new, frustrating ways that seemed not to happen until recently.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (30-26 Nelson)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (30-27 Nelson)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (30-26 Nelson)
The Official Result
Kyle Nelson def. Matt Frevola via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo leans Matt Frevola as the better fighter with good wrestling and power, but acknowledges Kyle Nelson's durability and power. He expects a finish either way and calls it a 50/50 fight. He picks Frevola but with low confidence.
Big Brady doubts Frevola will wrestle and expects a stand-up brawl. He questions both fighters' chins but thinks Nelson has the better chin and power. He predicts Nelson lands a big shot in the first round, picking a first-round KO.
Cody picks Frevola, citing his wrestling advantage and power. He notes Nelson is moving up from 145 and has struggled against wrestlers. Frevola can take Nelson down and ground-and-pound. Cody believes Frevola's size and grappling will be decisive, but admits low conviction.
Connor picks Nelson, agreeing that Frevola has shown bad signs recently. He notes that Frevola has not looked like he wants to fight in his last few outings. Connor believes Nelson's composure and range fighting will be effective, but acknowledges that Nelson has a history of melting down. He thinks Nelson should be a slight favorite.
James favors Frevola due to his wrestling, cardio, and natural lightweight frame, while Nelson is moving up from featherweight. He acknowledges Frevola's chin issues but believes his wrestling and pace will overwhelm Nelson. James predicts a decision win for Frevola.
The host thinks this fight could be a car crash, but if Frevola plays it safely and avoids Nelson's power, he can easily take the fight to the ground and rinse and repeat that style. He expects Frevola to win by submission or on the scorecards.
Paul picks Nelson, but with zero conviction. He notes both fighters love to brawl and have power. Paul thinks it's a pick'em and expects a finish. He leans Nelson but says it's a coin flip.
The MMA Guru picks Matt Frevola over Kyle Nelson. He acknowledges both are coming off losses but believes Frevola's competition has been tougher and his good moments are better. He thinks Frevola can mix in grappling and takedowns, and that Nelson is too rigid and simple. He predicts a decision win, 30-27.
Zane picks Nelson, citing his improved composure and range fighting. He notes that Nelson has become a cautious, consistent range fighter with good defense. Zane points out that Frevola has looked gun-shy and lacks a fight outside the pocket. He believes Nelson can win by using his jab and staying at range.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farès Ziam | 1 | 58 of 94 | 61% | 69 of 107 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 4:43 |
| Matt Frevola | 0 | 16 of 59 | 27% | 25 of 72 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 1 | 2:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Farès Ziam | 0 | 18 of 29 | 62% | 24 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:20 |
| Matt Frevola | 0 | 9 of 22 | 40% | 12 of 27 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 1 | 1:49 | |
| 2 | Farès Ziam | 0 | 34 of 55 | 61% | 37 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:10 |
| Matt Frevola | 0 | 7 of 32 | 21% | 12 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:58 | |
| 3 | Farès Ziam | 1 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 8 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:13 |
| Matt Frevola | 0 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farès Ziam | 58 of 94 | 61% | 44 of 77 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 45 of 75 | 7 of 9 | 6 of 10 |
| Matt Frevola | 16 of 59 | 27% | 7 of 44 | 7 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 49 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Farès Ziam | 18 of 29 | 62% | 12 of 22 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 21 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 4 |
| Matt Frevola | 9 of 22 | 40% | 2 of 14 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 17 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Farès Ziam | 34 of 55 | 61% | 28 of 47 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 30 of 48 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 4 |
| Matt Frevola | 7 of 32 | 21% | 5 of 25 | 1 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 27 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Farès Ziam | 6 of 10 | 60% | 4 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Matt Frevola | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The UFC chose violence in practically every one of these main card tilts, and the carnage starts in the lightweight division. While he has earned all five of his UFC wins at the hands of the judges, Ziam (15-4, 5-2 UFC) is no stranger to the “just scrap” mentality. Frevola (11-4-1, 5-4-1 UFC) would love nothing more than for the two to go buckwild, attacking with everything they have to let the chips fall where they may. Referee Loic Pora steels himself for just such an encounter, as “The Steamrolla” has not left the first round in his last five trips to the Octagon. There is a speedy glove touch before fists fly. Frevola takes the center of the cage, bobbing to the side to let a front kick fly past him. Frevola swings his way into a takedown setup, and this results in a clinch with a number of knees traded on both sides. The Frenchman bails on the tie-up, avoiding two looping hooks to pay Frevola back with a hard overhand right. Frevola digs deep and shoots for a double, switching to a single and putting “Smile Killer” to his seat. Ziam stays defensive with his guard, not letting Frevola get off any offense, until he sits up. Frevola jumps into a guillotine choke, and he rolls to full mount as Ziam is briefly concerned about the submission and thinks about tapping. Instead, Ziam rides it out, and Frevola rides heavily on top while looking for offense. Ziam turns to his side, and Frevola snatches up an armbar. Ziam shifts through it, and Frevola responds with a triangle choke. Ziam lets him have it with three thunderous right hands, forcing Frevola to spin to his side and try to stand back up. Frevola gets his back to the cage, and he locks his hands around the waist to hurl Ziam to the floor. Ziam lands on his knees, stands up and tags Frevola with a right hand. A second power right hand from Ziam stings the New Yorker, and Frevola smiles and tries to go out guns blazing. “The Steamrolla” misses with a huge right hook, and he kicks his way off the fence to launch a Superman punch. Ziam dodges and counters with a right hand, and he scoops an uppercut to the body before hooking up the clinch and kneeing Frevola in the belly. Frevola gives him a pair of knees back to think about, and a third forces a break. Ziam pounds Frevola in the face with a left hand, and he digs hard to the body before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Round 2
Frevola comes out of his corner loaded for bear, and he lobs two right hands at the Frenchman to reintroduce himself. Ziam jumps back at him with a knee, and Frevola grins and waves his arms in the air. Ziam pins a one-two on the chin, and he doubles up on a jab and goes over the top with a right. Two punches from Ziam lead to a low kick, and he intercepts an advancing Frevola with a left hand. Frevola overswings with bombs, and Ziam is composed and light on his feet to dodge a spinning wheel kick. Frevola just misses with a right hand from his knees, and Ziam is there to jab him up and move well enough to not get tagged with anything of merit. Frevola slings his way into the clinch, and he drops down for a double. Ziam defends it and hacks Frevola in the face with an elbow to force a break, only for Frevola to belt him with an overhand right. Frevola backs Ziam against the wall and unloads with a few punches, and Ziam is unafraid to engage in response. Ziam hammers his man with an elbow, and he uses another to get in close and tie “The Steamrolla” up. Getting turned to the wall, Ziam stays busy with knees until he spins out and elbows Frevola. Frevola comes out swinging, but Ziam sees the strikes coming, dips and pops Frevola in the temple with a left hand. Frevola circles into a head kick and walks into a jab, and he eats three punches while missing with his own. Ziam splits the guard with a jab, and a one-two keeps Frevola guessing as Ziam closes in on him. Ziam tosses Frevola to the floor, where he gets hold of his back and fishes for a rear-naked choke with only one hook in. Frevola guts it out, fights off a subsequent neck crank and whips an elbow from behind his back. The round ends with Ziam landing shots to the side of Frevola’s dome.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Round 3
Frevola assumes the center of the cage in the final round, likely down on the scorecards with plenty of damage on his face. He leads off with an overhand right, and when Ziam avoids it, he goes for another. Ziam sticks him with a jab, charges at him and hits him with a jump knee. Ziam rushes forward and sweeps the New Yorker off his feet, and he pushes Frevola against the wall when Frevola stands. Ziam succeeds in hitting a mat return, dragging “The Steamrolla” away from the fencing. Frevola scrambles, and Ziam follows him and keeps him stuck on his knees. Frevola bursts back to his feet, and Ziam pulls him down to the floor and briefly takes his back. Frevola spins around and works back to his feet, but Ziam lifts him in the air with a single and puts him down like a little brother. Ziam’s hands are clasped around the waist, with Frevola trying to fight the grip but getting tossed around. Frevola spins around, desperate to get out of this bad spot and gain some space.
Ziam holds on with his right hand, pulling Frevola’s head down into the meanest knee one could ever see. His mouthpiece sent flying, Frevola collapses lifelessly to the mat, out well before his head clatters off the mat. Ziam does not need to do this, but before Pora can pull him off, he hammers Frevola with a few standing-to-ground punches to further seal the deal.
The French faithful erupt in favor of their victorious fighter, who has just authored one of the most brutal knockouts of the year. It takes some time, but Frevola manages to come to, getting to his stool and eventually back to his feet, as many witnessing it breathing a sigh of relief. Ziam has the crowd in the palm of his hands, and he calmly thanks his friends and family as he drinks in what will almost certainly be a $50,000-winning performance.
The Official Result
Fares Ziam def. Matt Frevola R3 2:59 via KO (Knee)
Angelo picks Farès Ziam as an underdog, surprised he is not the favorite. He believes Ziam's ability to avoid danger and fight a slow, technical fight will frustrate Frevola, who has cardio issues and is not technical enough to win a slow fight. He expects a boring fight where Ziam points his way to victory.
Big Brady picks Matt Frevola by decision, expecting him to use wrestling after seeing Ziam get taken down seven times by Claudio Puelles. He notes Frevola has better striking than Puelles and can mix in takedowns. He is concerned about Frevola's chin but thinks he can win a decision if he wrestles.
Cody picks Frevola as an underdog, citing Ziam's poor takedown defense (67%) and Frevola's strong wrestling from a high-level camp. He notes that Ziam has been taken down repeatedly by grapplers, and Frevola's path to victory is to take him down and control him. Frevola's durability is a concern, but Ziam lacks one-punch power.
Connor picks Frevola because he believes Frevola's pressure, scrambling, and power will overwhelm Ziam, who is a cautious range striker with poor wrestling. He notes that Frevola is dangerous in the pocket and can take down opponents, while Ziam tends to struggle when crowded. Connor also points out that Ziam lacks knockout power at this level and has been submitted by grapplers. He sees Frevola winning by decision or late finish.
Daniel Vreeland picks Matt Frevola to win, believing the line should be flipped. He thinks Frevola hits harder, has better wrestling, and can finish Ziam by KO or submission. He notes Ziam's takedown defense issues and that Frevola has fought taller opponents before. He sees value in Frevola at plus odds.
JP picks Matt Frevola because he thinks Farès Ziam is 'cheeks' and doesn't use his reach advantage well. He notes Frevola is a dog who comes forward and throws bombs. He also mentions Frevola is 34 but still has enough left. He thinks Frevola can get inside and land big shots.
Paul agrees, emphasizing that Frevola needs to use his wrestling to win, not chase bonuses. He notes that Ziam's takedown defense is a major red flag, and Frevola's camp (Serra-Longo) has a winning blueprint. Paul predicts Frevola by decision.
The MMA Guru picks Matt Frevola over Farès Ziam, citing Frevola's takedown entries and training partners. He criticizes Ziam's losses to Terrence McKinney and lack of finishes. He predicts Frevola will set up takedowns and then catch Ziam for a late first or early second-round KO.
Zane picks Frevola because he believes Frevola's pressure and grappling will be too much for Ziam, who is a cautious striker with poor wrestling defense. He notes that Frevola can start slow and warm up, then take over with his pace and power. Zane also points out that Ziam has been submitted by grapplers and lacks the power to keep Frevola off him. He sees Frevola winning a decision or possibly finishing Ziam late.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 7 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Matt Frevola | 1 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 10 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 7 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Matt Frevola | 1 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 10 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benoît Saint Denis | 5 of 9 | 55% | 2 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Frevola | 6 of 11 | 54% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benoît Saint Denis | 5 of 9 | 55% | 2 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Frevola | 6 of 11 | 54% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: St. Denis (-230), Frevola (+190)
Round 1
Referee Mike Beltran cannot blink as he watches over this lightweight banger. Three first-round knockouts in a row bolster the recent resume of New York native Frevola (11-3-1, 5-3-1 UFC), while French foe St. Denis (12-1, 1 NC; 4-1 UFC) has performed four straight finishes on his own right. Before the flurries of fists and feet that are sure to bless the cage commence, the contenders-to-be tap their fists together. St. Denis introduces himself with a head kick, and Frevola leans back to dodge it. Frevola kicks low, and when he attempts to throw hands, St. Denis catches him on the way in with another low kick that may have grazed the cup. St. Denis aims a kick to the body, and Frevola does the same. A kick from Frevola makes him stumble, and St. Denis rushes towards him and jumps guard with a guillotine choke. Frevola escapes the danger, stands back up, lifts the Frenchman in the air and slams him down. St. Denis is able to power back up, and when he pushes Frevola back to the fence, he absorbs a stern knee to his guts. Frevola breaks off, circling away to reset, but the French fighter gives chase. St. Denis chambers and launches his left shin at the dome, and it clatters off Frevola’s forehead and puts him all the way out. St. Denis, not sure if Frevola was still with it, drops to his knees and clobbers an unconscious Frevola with a few left hands, all while Beltran sprints towards them to stop the fight. Frevola comes to shortly after, and there is absolutely no ill will between the two, as they salute one another and thank the other for their personal previous military services. What a spectacular knockout!
The Official Result
Benoit St. Denis def. Matt Frevola R1 1:31 via KO (Head Kick)
Angelo picks Frevola, citing his confidence, win streak, and fighting in New York. He acknowledges Saint Denis is tough but thinks Frevola can sneak out a win. He is watching the line movement and may bet if Frevola becomes a bigger dog.
Big Brady picks Benoît Saint Denis to win by first-round knockout. He thinks Saint Denis has more avenues to win, including dangerous grappling and power. He worries about Frevola's durability, noting he has been knocked out quickly before. Brady expects a war where Saint Denis lands something big and finishes Frevola.
Cody picks Saint Denis but is hesitant, acknowledging Frevola's skills and the value at +185. He worries about Frevola's chin, noting he's been knocked out by lesser punchers. He thinks Saint Denis has better durability and will win a brawl, but feels like a 'coward' for not taking the dog.
James picks Benoît Saint Denis but is hesitant, noting the line is too wide at -230. He thinks it should be around -140. He believes BSD has more tools on the feet, including body kicks, and has cardio and knockout upside. However, he acknowledges Frevola is live as an underdog, having won three swinging contests in a row, and BSD is hittable and was knocked out by Zaleski. He expects a swinging match and considers the under 1.5 rounds but is not enticed at -150.
Saint Denis will wear on Frevola with his aggressive wrestling and grappling. He will exchange in the pocket to open up takedowns, then take Frevola to the mat and smash him from top position. Expects a finish by TKO or submission in the second or third round. Frevola's durability is a question mark.
Paul picks Saint Denis, citing his durability and toughness from his military background. He thinks Saint Denis can take damage and make the fight ugly, while Frevola has questionable durability. He notes Saint Denis's grappling and strength at 155 will be key.
The MMA Guru picks Matt Frevola as his underdog of the card. He thinks Frevola has nasty power and good wrestling, and that Saint Denis leaves his chin open when swinging against the cage. He predicts Frevola will catch Saint Denis with a left hook, similar to his finishes of Dober and Aitar, and win by KO at the end of round one.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Frevola | 0 | 20 of 59 | 33% | 20 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Drew Dober | 1 | 35 of 75 | 46% | 39 of 79 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Frevola | 0 | 20 of 59 | 33% | 20 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Drew Dober | 1 | 35 of 75 | 46% | 39 of 79 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Frevola | 20 of 59 | 33% | 12 of 50 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Drew Dober | 35 of 75 | 46% | 26 of 61 | 6 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 58 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Frevola | 20 of 59 | 33% | 12 of 50 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Drew Dober | 35 of 75 | 46% | 26 of 61 | 6 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 58 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 15 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dober (-205), Frevola (+175)
Round 1
What many are coining the must-watch battle of the evening takes place in the ESPN prelim headliner, when hard-chinned brawler Dober (26-11, 1 NC; 12-7, 1 NC UFC) throws down with aggressive action fighter Frevola (10-3-1, 4-3-1 UFC). Ahead of what hopes to be a lightweight thriller, the two men bump fists. Referee Herb Dean stands at the ready. Frevola engages with a jab and a body kick, and the latter lands flush. Dober counters with a left hand, and he gets tagged with a right hand over the top. Frevola comes at his foe with a superman punch and a head kick, and he scores a right hand that gives Dober pause. They crash together and bump heads together, and Dober gets a left hand to find the chin. Frevola flails back with powerful punches, and he changes levels and bails on it to knee the body. Dober swats away a kick to his ribs, and he gives Frevola a shove. Frevola slides a punch but cannot dodge the subsequent body shot. A few punches from Frevola bust open Dober’s nose, and he fights his way of the fence. Dober keeps walking him down, slipping a pair of hooks and walking him down. Dober thumps a left to the body, and Frevola loads up with everything he has to fire back. Dober sticks a straight right down the pipe that reddens Frevola’s nose, and he is backing Frevola off but not slowing his offense. Frevola sings a few right hands, and they crash together swinging fists. Both split apart, no worse for wear, and Frevola boots him upside the head with his shin. Dober practically ignores it to retaliate with a one-two, and a left to the body. Frevola connects with another Superman punch, and Dober wobbles but continues marching forward. Dober looses head kicks, and one slides under the arm to the upper ribs.
Frevola sits down on a right hand that pounds square into Dober's perfect jawline, and Dober collapses to his seat. Sensing he might be able to pull off the finish and upset, Frevola leaps on top and hammers Dober with a lengthy barrage of unanswered blows. Frevola beats down on Dober with a long stream of punches, and Dober’s eyes roll back briefly before he gets knocked back into his senses.
As Frevola keeps swinging to finish the job, Dean steps in to wave the fight off, and Dober immediately protests. Dober tries to get back to his feet to show he can still fight and that Dean made a mistake, but he is wobbling on his feet and barely upright. Blood streams from Dober’s face, and the fight is officially over. Frevola goes over to make sure there is no bad blood, and tensions cool down.
The Official Result
Matt Frevola def. Drew Dober R1 4:08 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Matt Frevola, citing his recent knockout power and wrestling ability. He thinks Drew Dober's chin may finally be wearing out from accumulated damage, and that Frevola is smart enough to mix in takedowns rather than brawl. Angelo notes Frevola's confidence from back-to-back KO wins and believes he can land, shoot, and grind to victory. He has a quarter unit on Frevola at +185, calling it great odds for a guy with power and wrestling.
Big Brady picks Dober, expecting a stand-up war. He notes Frevola has power but tends to brawl, and Dober has one of the best chins in the UFC. He believes if Frevola stands and trades, Dober will knock him out. He predicts a first-round knockout, as Frevola has been knocked out before and Dober's durability is elite.
Cody emphasizes Dober's incredible chin and power, noting that Frevola has been knocked out by lesser punchers. He points out that Dober survived a knockdown from Terence McKinney and came back to win, while McKinney knocked out Frevola in 7 seconds. He expects Dober to land big shots and knock Frevola out, possibly under 1.5 rounds.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Dober's pressure and ability to come back from being hurt make him the pick. He notes Frevola has been knocked out too many times and that Dober's losses come only to elite wrestlers. Connor sees Frevola's path as unlikely.
The host picks Drew Dober, believing his speed and explosiveness will allow him to land cleanly on Matt Frevola. He notes Dober's defensive grappling should nullify Frevola's takedowns. He expects a knockout and recommends the fight doesn't go to decision as the best bet.
Paul agrees, calling Dober's chin one of the best in the game. He notes Frevola's path is to grapple early, but at range Dober has a clear advantage. He predicts Dober knocks him out, as Frevola has struggled against power punchers.
The Guru picks Dober, calling Frevola a scrappier, worse version of Dober. He notes Dober's chin and ability to survive storms, while Frevola has been finished by lesser fighters. He expects a stand-up fight with Dober finishing Frevola in the first round via being more technical and tough in the pocket.
Zane picks Drew Dober because Dober is more reliable in a brawl, with excellent pocket composure and body work. He notes Frevola may have a wrestling out but is likely to get drawn into a war. Dober's defensive wrestling is solid but not ironclad, but Frevola's tendency to brawl and get knocked out makes Dober the clear pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Frevola | 1 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Frevola | 1 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Frevola | 11 of 27 | 40% | 10 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 10 of 22 | 45% | 6 of 17 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Frevola | 11 of 27 | 40% | 10 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 10 of 22 | 45% | 6 of 17 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Azaitar (-115), Frevola (-105)
Round 1
Azaitar returns to active competition for the first time since September 2020, and he looks to extended his UFC winning streak to three after back-to-back first-round finishes. Frevola, a New York native and Dana White’s Contender Series alum, is coming off a first-round TKO triumph himself. Dan Miragliotta will get his first reffing assignment of the night for this lightweight affair. Frevola comes out with big movements, missing a high kick and a spinning kick. Azaitar circles on the outside and lands a jab. Frevola answers with a body kick. Frevola moves in and lands a one-two. Azaitar backs his foe up with a front kick. A right from Azaitar backs up Frevola. He follows that with a nice front kick down the middle. A counter right lands for Frevola in an exchange, but Azaitar makes Frevola stubmle with a short left hook. Frevola snaps his foe’s head back with a jab. Azaitar looks to go on the attack as he backs Frevola into the fence with a punching combination.
That proves to be a costly decision, as Frevola lands two short rights in close quarters before putting out Azaitar’s lights with a clean left hook.
Frevola lands a couple standing-to-ground punches before Miragliotta dives in to save an unconscious Azaitar.
The Official Result
Matt Frevola def. Ottman Azaitar via KO (Punch) R1 2:30
Angelo notes that Azaitar is a powerful striker who thrives in chaos, while Frevola is a tough wrestler who charges forward. He is concerned about Azaitar's two-year layoff but assumes he is prepared. He picks Azaitar and plans to bet on Azaitar inside the distance if the odds are favorable, because he believes if Azaitar wins it will be by stoppage, while Frevola's path is a decision.
Big Brady picks Ottman Azaitar to win by first-round knockout. He believes Frevola will choose to stand and bang, which plays into Azaitar's power. He notes Azaitar hits harder than anyone Frevola has faced, and that Frevola has been knocked out before (by Terrence McKinney in 7 seconds) and dropped multiple times. He acknowledges Azaitar's inactivity and takedown defense concerns, but trusts his power. He says if Frevola wrestles he could win, but he doesn't trust him to do so.
Cody picks Azaitar, citing his legitimate power and the fact that Frevola has durability issues, having been knocked out by Marco Polo Reyes and dropped by Lando Vannata. He notes that Azaitar has been on a long layoff but was given a favorable matchup. Cody thinks Azaitar will land a big shot and finish Frevola in the first or second round.
Connor picks Azaitar, noting that Frevola has been knocked out early by powerful punchers like Polo Reyes and Terrence McKinney. He points out that Azaitar is an accurate and aggressive finisher who comes out of the gate on point. Connor acknowledges that if the fight goes past the first round, Frevola's versatility gives him an edge, but he trusts Azaitar's early power.
Daniel Levi picks Ottman Azaitar, believing he will knock out Frevola early. He notes that Frevola has a suspect chin and has been dropped in multiple fights, while Azaitar has knockout power. However, he warns that if Azaitar doesn't finish early, Frevola's pace and heart could take over in later rounds. Levi sees this as a pick'em and is leaning toward Azaitar's finishing ability.
The host expects violence and an early finish, likely by Azaitar via KO in round 1. He notes Azaitar's 12 finishes in 13 wins and Frevola's fragility. However, he also sees a path for Frevola via submission if he survives the early onslaught. The best bet is the under 2.5 rounds to cover both scenarios. Official prediction is Azaitar by KO round 1.
Paul is torn but leans towards Azaitar getting the finish, though he is more drawn to the under 1.5 rounds prop. He notes that Azaitar hits very hard and Frevola has been knocked out before, but he is unsure about Azaitar's grappling if taken down. Paul thinks the fight will end early, likely by Azaitar KO, but he prefers the under prop.
The MMA Guru picks Ottman Azaitar, surprised he is an underdog. He notes Frevola's vulnerability in the pocket and Azaitar's power, predicting a KO in the second round. He acknowledges Azaitar's long layoff and past grappling issues but believes Frevola isn't explosive enough to exploit them.
Zane picks Azaitar, comparing him to Abdul Razak Alhassan in terms of early explosiveness and accuracy. He notes that Frevola has been slept by similar fighters and that Azaitar's left hook is a real threat. Zane also mentions that Frevola's durability is questionable, and Azaitar follows up on damage well.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matt Frevola | 1 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matt Frevola | 1 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Frevola | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Frevola | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
At lightweight, Frevola (8-2-1, 2-2-1 UFC) will welcome short-notice newcomer and a man with an interesting backstory of “T.Wrecks” McKinney (10-3, 0-0 UFC) to the Octagon. McKinney won one week ago inside the LFA cage, and is stepping in for the unexpectedly injured Frank Camacho. Referee Jason Herzog will be on top of what is sure to be a torrid first round at least, but there is a sporting glove touch before the scheduled violence. McKinney strides out of his corner as if he knows something we don’t, and he marches forward with bad intentions.
When they meet in the center of the cage, a jackhammer of a one-two comes from the newcomer, with a right and a left hand that puts Frevola down like a sack of bricks. Frevola may be out, and McKinney dives down to smash him with hammerfists as Herzog cannot intervene fast enough.
Celebrating what should be one of the quickest knockouts in company history is McKinney, who climbs the cage and leaps off. When “T.Wrecks” lands on the ground, he jams his knee and may have blown it out. McKinney falls over in pain, and he manages to get to his feet thanks to his corner, and he hops over to his stool. Tears in his eyes, McKinney soaks in the moment of what is easily the biggest win of his career, although he does mar it with a potential knee injury.
The Official Result
Terrance McKinney def. Matt Frevola R1 0:07 via KO (Punches)
Big Brady picks Matt Frevola, citing his wrestling advantage and better gas tank. He notes Camacho has been finished 7 times and is on a losing streak, while Frevola is younger and should outwork him. He expects a decision win but acknowledges a finish is possible due to both fighters' durability issues.
Cody picks Frevola, believing his cardio and grappling will overcome McKinney's early explosiveness. He thinks if Frevola survives the first round, he will break McKinney down and possibly finish him. He is also interested in the under on the total rounds, expecting a finish.
Daniel Levi picks Matt Frevola, citing his experience against tough competition and his heart. He notes that Frevola has fought Jalin Turner and Arman Tsarukyan, and that McKinney's only chance is an early knockout. Levi expects McKinney to gas out if he doesn't finish in the first round, and that Frevola's pace and durability will carry him to victory.
Frevola has better striking and power, and McKinney is coming off a short-notice fight with weight cuts. Both are aggressive, but Frevola should land the cleaner shots. Expect a first-round knockout, as McKinney has never been to a decision and Frevola is all action. The fight likely ends inside the distance.
Paul picks Frevola, noting his durability and cardio. He thinks McKinney is too green and will gas out after the first round. He is eager to bet the under on the total rounds, expecting a finish.
The MMA Guru picks Matt Frevola, citing Frank Camacho's recent decline and inactivity. He believes Frevola is younger, hungrier, and has good grappling and power. He predicts a first-round TKO in a scrappy brawl, with Frevola's youth and chin giving him the edge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arman Tsarukyan | 0 | 50 of 103 | 48% | 103 of 180 | 10 of 12 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 8:24 |
| Matt Frevola | 0 | 16 of 57 | 28% | 51 of 97 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arman Tsarukyan | 0 | 28 of 52 | 53% | 33 of 60 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 1:17 |
| Matt Frevola | 0 | 12 of 41 | 29% | 24 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Arman Tsarukyan | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 34 of 57 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:36 |
| Matt Frevola | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 20 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Arman Tsarukyan | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 36 of 63 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:31 |
| Matt Frevola | 0 | 3 of 13 | 23% | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arman Tsarukyan | 50 of 103 | 48% | 32 of 82 | 12 of 15 | 6 of 6 | 39 of 86 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 9 |
| Matt Frevola | 16 of 57 | 28% | 8 of 46 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 48 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arman Tsarukyan | 28 of 52 | 53% | 20 of 43 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 25 of 48 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Frevola | 12 of 41 | 29% | 5 of 31 | 5 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 35 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Arman Tsarukyan | 7 of 16 | 43% | 4 of 11 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 8 |
| Matt Frevola | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Arman Tsarukyan | 15 of 35 | 42% | 8 of 28 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Matt Frevola | 3 of 13 | 23% | 2 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The key bout atop the ESPN preliminary portion of the event is one thrown together on Friday due to a
failed weight cut
by one previous opponent and by
hijinks almost too preposterous to believe
for the other. After the dust settled, we were left with a 157-pound catchweight affair as Tsarukyan (15-2, 2-1 UFC) now tries to steamroll “The Steamrolla” Frevola (8-1-1, 2-1-1 UFC). Keeping tabs on this hastily made match is referee Lukasz Bosacki, who notices the two touch gloves in appreciation of still being able to compete on the card. Frevola leads off with several kicks, coming with front kicks and body kicks. He misses with a head kick, and Tsarukyan catches a leg kick to take the fight down with ease. Frevola scoots back to the cage, and when he stands up, Tsarukyan hits a hard mat return. Frevola spins about, threatens a choke, and gets dragged back down. Tsarukyan starts punching him in the face with several right hands, and when he tries to keep Frevola grounded, Frevola starts working body shots from his back. Frevola manages to walk up the fence to stand up again, but it does not stay there for long when Tsarukyan tries to toss him down. Both men fall to their knees, and they stand back up. When they start to engage, they clash heads, but neither appear hurt or cut from it. Tsarukyan starts to walk Frevola down, landing punches and ducking out of the way of Frevola’s huge shots. Tsarukyan lands a one-two as Frevola circles around the fence, and Frevola defends by rolling through a dramatic takedown attempt. When Frevola stands up, he comes up short with a big elbow. Tsarukyan lets loose a head kick, but it is not able to score. The American spins for a wheel kick, and Tsarukyan sees it coming and counters with a spinning back kick that puts Frevola on his back for a moment. Frevola leaps back up, and he takes a few heavy punches and cannot counter effectively. Tsarukyan counters Frevola on the way in, but Frevola is loading up with everything he has on his punches as he gets off a glancing blow that makes Tsarukyan take a step back. Both men stand and trade, and Frevola waves Tsarukyan on to start brawling with him. Frevola sits down on a huge right hand, and Tsarukyan is not able to roll with it. Frevola stings him with a big right hand, and he hurts Tsarukyan with it and shoots in on a takedown to wrap up the action-packed round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan
Round 2
Tsarukyan begins the round with a few big shots, and Frevola eats them like small sandwiches and keeps on going. Tsarukyan shoots in low for a takedown, and he hits it all while Frevola smacks him upside the head repeatedly. Frevola springs back up, but he is not upright for more than a second or two before Tsarukyan throws him back down to the ground. This time, Frevola is not in an advantageous position to walk up the fence, allowing Tsarukyan to start landing ground-and-pound while in Frevola’s guard. Tsarukyan stacks up Frevola, when the American flirts with a triangle choke off his back, and he lords over his foe to land some heavy shots. Frevola rolls through when Tsarukyan tries to pound on him, allowing him to walk up the fence only to get dragged back down in a hurry. Frevola can only stay upright for seconds at a time, as Tsarukyan is on him like a cheap suit, smothering Frevola and irritating him with sporadic punches. Frevola pushes off the fence and is on one knee, and when he stands up, Tsarukyan lifts Frevola’s leg in the air. As Frevola swats at his opponent on one leg, the Russian trips his leg out and slams him down. In one of the brief exchanges from the close-range contact, a right hand of Frevola opens up a cut above Tsarukyan’s left eye. Tsarukyan ignores it and keeps Frevola trapped on his back, even attempting a brabo choke for a moment. Tsarukyan bails on it to get off some ground-and-pound, eventually transitioning into an arm-triangle choke. Frevola rolls and bucks out of the choke, but Tsarukyan holds him down and works him over with punches until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan
Round 3
There is a glove touch to begin the last stanza, and Tsarukyan steps in and kicks Frevola in the face. Frevola swings with a big right hand, and Tsarukyan ducks it into an easy takedown. “The Steamrolla” rolls through it to get back to his feet, where Tsarukyan greets him with another foot to the face. Frevola wears it well as he gets jabbed shortly after, and he swings wildly with a right hand that is nowhere near his opponent. Tsarukyan ducks out of the way from a spinning kick, and he dances backward to evade a multiple-rotation spinning kick that follows. Tsarukyan lands a one-two, and keeps Frevola at bay with jabs and more one-two combinations. Frevola tries to counter, and Tsarukyan snatches up his leg and successfully completes a single. From his back, Frevola pursues a guillotine choke, but Tsarukyan ignores it as he works the body with his left hand, all while sliding his head out of danger. Frevola kicks off, lands an upkick to a standing Tsarukyan, and stands up. Tsarukyan catches him in a rolling brabo or anaconda choke, but they move so fast that he cannot lock it up and both get back up. Frevola overcommits to a strike, and Tsarukyan lifts him up and slams him down. Tsarukyan takes his back in an exchange, but Frevola is sneaky and twists his way out. Instead of winding up on top, Tsarukyan similarly scrambles and puts Frevola on his back. Tsarukyan lands this position in side control, before crawling over to north-south before getting side control on the other side. From there, Tsarukyan sits up, lands a few strikes, and locks down three-quarter mount to drop down shots. Frevola sits up, and he surrenders his back for a moment, but Tsarukyan bowls him back over as he lands strikes. Tsarukyan lumps up Frevola with ground strikes right to the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan (30-27 Tsarukyan)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan (30-27 Tsarukyan)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan (30-27 Tsarukyan)
The Official Result
Arman Tsarukyan def. Matt Frevola via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
Big Brady picks Arman Tsarukyan (likely referring to Ottman Azaitar, but the matchup is Tsarukyan vs Frevola; he mentions 'zytar' which is likely a mispronunciation of Tsarukyan). He notes Tsarukyan's power and Frevola's recklessness. He predicts a first-round knockout, as Frevola engages in brawls and has been knocked out before. He acknowledges Tsarukyan's takedown defense is a question mark but believes his power will prevail.
Daniel Levi picks Arman Tsarukyan, calling him a class above Frevola in wrestling, striking, and durability. He notes Tsarukyan's impressive improvements and believes he will win fairly easily. Levi respects Frevola's toughness but sees Tsarukyan as a future top-15 fighter.
Frevola has good takedown defense and cardio, and he should be able to keep the fight on the feet. Tsarukyan's takedown efficiency has been poor (18% against Olivier Aubin-Mercier), and Frevola's low stance helps him stuff takedowns. Frevola's striking, especially his rear uppercut, could be a factor. I think Frevola wins by decision, and at plus money he is a steal.
The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan (misspelled as 'Ottoman Zyatar') to win by first-round TKO. He criticizes Matt Frevola's tendency to stick his chin out and brawl, which led to a KO loss against Marco Polo Reyes. He believes Tsarukyan's hand speed and power will catch Frevola early. He also notes Frevola has taken significant damage in his career, making him more vulnerable.
Expert Picks (6)
Big Brady picks Matt Frevola, citing his wrestling advantage and better gas tank. He notes Camacho has been finished 7 times and is on a losing streak, while Frevola is younger and should outwork him. He expects a decision win but acknowledges a finish is possible due to both fighters' durability issues.
Cody picks Frevola, believing his cardio and grappling will overcome McKinney's early explosiveness. He thinks if Frevola survives the first round, he will break McKinney down and possibly finish him. He is also interested in the under on the total rounds, expecting a finish.
Daniel Levi picks Matt Frevola, citing his experience against tough competition and his heart. He notes that Frevola has fought Jalin Turner and Arman Tsarukyan, and that McKinney's only chance is an early knockout. Levi expects McKinney to gas out if he doesn't finish in the first round, and that Frevola's pace and durability will carry him to victory.
Frevola has better striking and power, and McKinney is coming off a short-notice fight with weight cuts. Both are aggressive, but Frevola should land the cleaner shots. Expect a first-round knockout, as McKinney has never been to a decision and Frevola is all action. The fight likely ends inside the distance.
Paul picks Frevola, noting his durability and cardio. He thinks McKinney is too green and will gas out after the first round. He is eager to bet the under on the total rounds, expecting a finish.
The MMA Guru picks Matt Frevola, citing Frank Camacho's recent decline and inactivity. He believes Frevola is younger, hungrier, and has good grappling and power. He predicts a first-round TKO in a scrappy brawl, with Frevola's youth and chin giving him the edge.
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