Career Averages - Israel Adesanya
Career Averages - Marvin Vettori
Israel Adesanya
Marvin Vettori
Israel Adesanya - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 42 of 75 | 56% | 58 of 92 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joe Pyfer | 0 | 36 of 70 | 51% | 52 of 90 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 24 of 42 | 57% | 37 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joe Pyfer | 0 | 9 of 23 | 39% | 9 of 23 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 18 of 33 | 54% | 21 of 36 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joe Pyfer | 0 | 27 of 47 | 57% | 43 of 67 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 42 of 75 | 56% | 22 of 54 | 8 of 8 | 12 of 13 | 42 of 74 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Joe Pyfer | 36 of 70 | 51% | 33 of 64 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 18 of 42 | 2 of 7 | 16 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 24 of 42 | 57% | 13 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 10 | 24 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Joe Pyfer | 9 of 23 | 39% | 7 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 17 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 18 of 33 | 54% | 9 of 24 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Joe Pyfer | 27 of 47 | 57% | 26 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 12 of 25 | 1 of 3 | 14 of 19 |
Angelo picks Israel Adesanya despite acknowledging his age and chin issues. He believes Adesanya's technical striking and range management can keep him safe until Joe Pyfer's cardio fades. He notes that Adesanya looked good in recent losses before getting finished, and that Pyfer's wrestling is not at the level of Dricus du Plessis. However, he says he would not be surprised if Pyfer knocks him out.
Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya to win by decision, but he is hesitant. He acknowledges Adesanya is on a three-fight skid and may be declining, but notes his losses have come against top competition. He thinks Adesanya's elite takedown defense and striking volume will be key, especially with the big cage. He believes if Adesanya's chin holds up, he will outpoint Pyfer over five rounds. He also notes Pyfer's path is via knockout or wrestling, but doubts Pyfer can maintain wrestling for 25 minutes.
Cody acknowledges Adesanya's recent losses and durability concerns but believes Pyfer's cardio issues and reliance on early power will allow Izzy to take over in later rounds. He notes Pyfer's limited wrestling and tendency to gas, making Adesanya the pick despite the risk.
Connor acknowledges that Pyfer is the more rational pick given Adesanya's recent decline and tendency to get hurt, but he stubbornly picks Adesanya because he doesn't think Pyfer is good enough. He notes that Adesanya can fence Pyfer off and make him uncomfortable, but can never fully neutralize the danger. He compares his pick to a classic 'vibes' pick, admitting it's a prove-it question.
Daniel believes Izzy is on the decline, having lost four of his last five and been finished in three. He thinks Pyfer's power and grappling, combined with Izzy's diminished reflexes and chin, will lead to an upset. He picks Pyfer to finish Adesanya.
The host is torn on this fight. Adesanya is a bad stylistic matchup for Pyfer on paper (better striker, good takedown defense), but Adesanya has shown signs of decline (KO loss to Imavov, submission loss to Du Plessis). The host cannot confidently pick either side and passes pre-fight, preferring to live bet the fight.
Lucrative James picks Israel Adesanya to win, believing Adesanya hasn't fallen as far as some think and that his experience and takedown defense will be key. He thinks Joe Pyfer will need a finish to win, but Adesanya's striking and durability make that unlikely. He also notes that Pyfer may fade in later rounds, giving Adesanya an edge.
The host is torn but leans towards Pyfer, citing Adesanya's recent decline in reflexes and durability. He thinks Pyfer's power and wrestling could lead to a finish, possibly by submission similar to Dricus du Plessis. However, he admits low confidence and may not bet it, noting Adesanya could also win by picking Pyfer apart from distance.
Paul agrees with Cody, stating they've never been Pyfer guys. He thinks Adesanya's takedown defense is sufficient and that Pyfer hasn't shown elite wrestling. He's comfortable with the moneyline at -150.
The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya, despite acknowledging Joe Pyfer's power and grappling. He believes Adesanya's striking levels are above Pyfer's, citing his ability to avoid Pereira's left hook and his performance against Imavov. He expects Adesanya to use low kicks to neutralize Pyfer's right hand and eventually find a finish. He predicts a third-round TKO.
Zane sees the trajectories of the two careers heading in opposite directions, with Adesanya getting hurt frequently and Pyfer being extremely dangerous. He believes Adesanya cannot neutralize Pyfer's danger the way Abus Magomedov did, because Adesanya won't wrestle. He thinks Pyfer's lack of sophistication may not matter if he catches Adesanya early.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 26 of 50 | 52% | 32 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nassourdine Imavov | 1 | 15 of 31 | 48% | 18 of 34 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 20 of 44 | 45% | 26 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 10 of 23 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 6 of 6 | 100% | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nassourdine Imavov | 1 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 26 of 50 | 52% | 9 of 28 | 6 of 8 | 11 of 14 | 26 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nassourdine Imavov | 15 of 31 | 48% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 3 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 20 of 44 | 45% | 8 of 27 | 3 of 5 | 9 of 12 | 20 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nassourdine Imavov | 8 of 21 | 38% | 3 of 13 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 6 of 6 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nassourdine Imavov | 7 of 10 | 70% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
Angelo picks Israel Adesanya but is getting less confident. He notes that Adesanya's striking looked great in his last fight against Dricus du Plessis, but he was ultimately finished. He believes Adesanya is the better striker and if the fight stays on the feet, he wins. However, he worries about Imavov's wrestling and the possibility of Adesanya's decline. He will not bet on Adesanya.
Big Brady is not overly excited for this fight but picks Israel Adesanya. He notes Adesanya looked bad against Strickland but good against Du Plessis before getting submitted. He thinks Imavov can wrestle but lacks the cardio to do so effectively, and will slow down as the fight goes on. Brady expects Adesanya to pick him apart late and win a decision. He has no betting interest.
Connor picks Adesanya, arguing that Imavov lacks the pressure and cardio to exploit Adesanya's age. He notes that Adesanya's jab and kicking game remain effective, and Imavov has never shown the ability to maintain a high pace or wrestle consistently enough to trouble Adesanya. Connor believes Imavov would need a radically new approach to win, which he hasn't demonstrated.
James picks Imavov to win, citing Adesanya's decline in durability, reaction time, and motivation. He notes Imavov has advantages in wrestling and grappling, and that Adesanya's recent submission loss to Dricus du Plessis showed poor defensive grappling. He believes Imavov can win by submission, decision, or even knockout due to Adesanya's declining chin. However, he admits it's not his most confident pick.
Adesanya is facing a kickboxer that allows him to showcase his high-level performances, unlike the wrestling-heavy styles of Strickland and du Plessis. He will set traps, spring them on Imavov, and prove he is still one of the best middleweights. Expect a 25-minute decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Nassourdine Imavov to win by submission in the third round, possibly an arm triangle. He believes Imavov's grappling and clinch work will be key, as Adesanya has weaknesses in the clinch and on the ground. He notes Imavov nearly beat Sean Strickland and has good takedown entries. He thinks Adesanya's motivation may be lacking after his losses.
Zane picks Adesanya, agreeing with Connor that Imavov's style doesn't match up well. He emphasizes that Imavov is not a pressure fighter and struggles with pace, while Adesanya's kicking and jab are still effective. Zane notes that Imavov would need to wrestle consistently, but his takedowns are often from clinch exchanges, which Adesanya handles well.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 90 of 197 | 45% | 99 of 206 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 2 | 0 | 3:39 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 97 of 203 | 47% | 105 of 211 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 22 of 52 | 42% | 22 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 16 of 37 | 43% | 16 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 22 of 34 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 | 0 | 3:28 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 17 of 30 | 56% | 25 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 31 of 75 | 41% | 31 of 75 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 40 of 83 | 48% | 40 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 24 of 45 | 53% | 24 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 24 of 53 | 45% | 24 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 90 of 197 | 45% | 61 of 155 | 7 of 13 | 22 of 29 | 80 of 184 | 8 of 11 | 2 of 2 |
| Israel Adesanya | 97 of 203 | 47% | 63 of 165 | 26 of 29 | 8 of 9 | 92 of 198 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 22 of 52 | 42% | 8 of 30 | 2 of 5 | 12 of 17 | 22 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 16 of 37 | 43% | 10 of 31 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 13 of 25 | 52% | 10 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 14 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 |
| Israel Adesanya | 17 of 30 | 56% | 12 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Dricus du Plessis | 31 of 75 | 41% | 22 of 63 | 1 of 3 | 8 of 9 | 31 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 40 of 83 | 48% | 25 of 66 | 12 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 40 of 83 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Dricus du Plessis | 24 of 45 | 53% | 21 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 24 of 53 | 45% | 16 of 43 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 23 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Dricus du Plessis despite acknowledging Israel Adesanya is the more technical fighter. He believes du Plessis's insane pressure, constant forward movement, and takedown attempts will be too much for the 35-year-old Adesanya, who took a year off. He has two half-unit bets on du Plessis at +105 and +120, totaling one unit, and is confident the pressure will overwhelm Adesanya.
Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya to win by decision, but is hesitant. He struggled with this pick, initially leaning du Plessis but then moving to Adesanya. He rewatched the du Plessis vs Strickland fight and didn't think du Plessis won convincingly. He notes that if du Plessis fights at range against Adesanya, Adesanya will make it look easy, but if du Plessis pressures recklessly, he could knock Adesanya out. He is concerned about Adesanya's last performance against Strickland, which was his worst career fight, but believes a motivated Adesanya can win. He says he will probably stay away from betting this fight.
Cody believes du Plessis has the wrestling advantage to take Adesanya down repeatedly, as Adesanya's takedown defense has always been suspect. He notes du Plessis is younger, has better cardio, and is improving, while Adesanya is 35 and coming off a year layoff. He also points to du Plessis' wins over Robert Whittaker and Sean Strickland as evidence he can handle top competition.
Vreeland picks Adesanya, calling him 'good' and noting he occasionally gets caught but won't happen here against a smaller fighter. He believes Adesanya will play it safe and get his belt back, especially with the home crowd against him.
Daniel Vreeland picks Dricus du Plessis to retain the belt, citing stylistic advantages in closing distance and making the fight dirty. He notes that du Plessis has power, wrestling threats, and a proven ability to push pace, while Adesanya may be declining due to age and recent losses. Vreeland also mentions betting on du Plessis at plus 110 odds.
Fox picks Adesanya, arguing du Plessis is good but cannot close the distance against a motivated Adesanya. He compares to Pereira: you need elite striking or wrestling to beat Adesanya. He dismisses the Strickland loss as an unmotivated Adesanya, and believes with the trilogy fight with Pereira dangling, Adesanya will be fully motivated and put on a clinic. He thinks du Plessis' pressure will be countered viciously.
The host picks Adesanya, citing his technical striking, traps, and game planning. He expects a revitalized Adesanya after rest, and believes he will counter du Plessis effectively. He notes du Plessis' power and forward pressure but thinks Adesanya's pop and volume will be too much. He predicts a knockout win for Adesanya.
Paul highlights Adesanya's history of lackluster performances under pressure, such as against Sean Strickland and Yoel Romero, and questions his urgency. He emphasizes du Plessis' forward pressure, durability, and wrestling ability, noting he took down Strickland six times. Paul also mentions du Plessis' youth and the fact that Adesanya is 35 and coming off a retirement, making du Plessis the smart side.
The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis over Israel Adesanya. He argues that du Plessis is bigger than Adesanya's previous opponents, with better footwork and angles, and has multiple offensive options including takedowns, body kicks, and ground and pound. He criticizes Adesanya's recent performances, noting close fights with Sean Strickland and a loss to Alex Pereira. He believes du Plessis will take Adesanya down and control him, possibly finishing via ground and pound. He also mentions Adesanya's age (35) and that du Plessis is in his prime and fighting on his own terms.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 94 of 271 | 34% | 94 of 271 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Israel Adesanya | 1 | 137 of 259 | 52% | 137 of 259 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 12 of 39 | 30% | 12 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Israel Adesanya | 1 | 27 of 52 | 51% | 27 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 2 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 20 of 64 | 31% | 20 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 21 of 57 | 36% | 21 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 20 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 20 of 51 | 39% | 20 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 38 of 63 | 60% | 38 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 21 of 60 | 35% | 21 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 36 of 71 | 50% | 36 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Strickland | 94 of 271 | 34% | 22 of 154 | 38 of 60 | 34 of 57 | 94 of 271 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 137 of 259 | 52% | 85 of 186 | 45 of 62 | 7 of 11 | 121 of 235 | 11 of 14 | 5 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Strickland | 12 of 39 | 30% | 1 of 20 | 3 of 7 | 8 of 12 | 12 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 27 of 52 | 51% | 22 of 42 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 6 | 11 of 28 | 11 of 14 | 5 of 10 | |
| 2 | Sean Strickland | 20 of 64 | 31% | 3 of 35 | 7 of 12 | 10 of 17 | 20 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 16 of 32 | 50% | 11 of 22 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sean Strickland | 21 of 57 | 36% | 4 of 27 | 10 of 17 | 7 of 13 | 21 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 20 of 41 | 48% | 12 of 32 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Sean Strickland | 20 of 51 | 39% | 10 of 35 | 7 of 10 | 3 of 6 | 20 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 38 of 63 | 60% | 22 of 46 | 15 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 38 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Sean Strickland | 21 of 60 | 35% | 4 of 37 | 11 of 14 | 6 of 9 | 21 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 36 of 71 | 50% | 18 of 44 | 16 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 36 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Adesanya (-650), Strickland (+470)
Round 1
This main event is for all the marbles, with a middleweight belt and plenty of bragging rights following ample trash talk on the line. Intending on making the first defense of his second middleweight title reign, Adesanya (24-2, 13-2 UFC) comes in with about -700 odds as the most heavily favored fighter on the lineup. With plans of springing one of the largest championship upsets in recent memory – Grasso vs. Shevchenko and Pena vs. Nunes notwithstanding – Strickland (27-5, 14-5 UFC) would like nothing more than to spoil the party and play the ultimate villain in Sydney. The striker-on-striker affair will be officiated by referee Marc Goddard, and due to their bad blood, the middleweights have no plan on bumping fists. Adesanya is already talking to Strickland, and he feints several times to make Strickland react immediately. Adesanya paws out a low kick and then a front kick, and Strickland pushes it out of the way and blocks another front kick. A body kick from the champ grazes off the intended target, and he moves laterally to not let Strickland get into his preferred range. Adesanya continues hip-thrusting and faking strikes, and Strickland bites on most of them and is prepared to block when Adesanya commits to a strike. Strickland meanders forward, missing with a jab, and Adesanya hops away. Adesanya reaches his man with a straight left hand, and he sinks a leg kick down hard. Both men try to land long punches, and Strickland whiffs on a one-two. Adesanya kicks the body, and Strickland catches it, walks him to the fence, and lets it go so he can poke out his jab. Strickland sees the big kicks coming from his foe, but he is offensively muted even as he keeps after Adesanya. Adesanya chews up the lead leg with a few kicks, and he jabs to the body to stay busy. Strickland misses with two leg kicks, and he is jittery and keeps a tight Philly Shell defense when coming forward. Adesanya is still able to get in on him, and he kicks the lead leg when circling to the left. Strickland catches him with a few punches, and he lands a punch that drives Adesanya back to the wall. Adesanya allows him to rattle a few punches off the guard, and he bounces off it to stick out his own jab and loose a head kick. Strickland guard against the high kick but cannot stop the low strike, and he continues to give chase and cut Adesanya off. Adesanya stays on his bike and just misses with a head kick, and out of nowhere, Strickland blasts him in the face with a straight right hand. Strickland sees that he has his man hurt badly, and Adesanya drops to his knee. Strickland unloads on him with punches, and Adesanya stands up and turns his back while leaning forward against the fence. As Strickland keeps throwing everything he has, Adesanya motions to Goddard that he is fine. Adesanya turns around, and he survives the assault when the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 2
The champ appears recovered from the assault that ended the previous frame, and he peppers Strickland with distance strikes to initiate the second stanza. Strickland splits the guard with a jab, and Adesanya whips a leg kick at him and has a head kick bounce into the block. Adesanya lands kicks with body legs, and he connects with a left hook and rolls just in time to dodge a one-two from the challenger. Adesanya stretches his hand out several times to get a read on his distance, and he comes up short on a one-two to a high kick. Adesanya attacks the body, and he slaps with his right hand and follows it with a solid left. Strickland parries jabs and body shots, and he ignores a jab and a leg kick while plodding forward. Adesanya looks to loop a left around the guard, and Strickland pops him in the face with a sharp jab. Adesanya gets a right hand over that jab, and Strickland takes it without batting an eye. Strickland jabs with the ball of his foot to the midsection, and Adesanya keeps circling and moving while putting jabs together. Adesanya lands a few leg kicks, and Strickland reaches him with his toes for a push kick. Adesanya strikes the body and the lead leg, and Strickland pushes him back with an accurate jab. Adesanya winds up and drills the challenger with an overhand right, and Strickland can do little beyond block the body kick that comes after it and keep the forward pace constant. Strickland prods out a jab, and Adesanya answers him with a big right that grazes off the shoulder. Adesanya again opens up with a wide right hand, and he kicks the body and fakes to spin as he dips and ducks. Strickland lands with a right, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Adesanya
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Adesanya
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Adesanya
Round 3
Adesanya starts the third round by slapping a kick off the raised guard. Strickland moves forward, but his offense is largely relegated to a jab or a front kick as Adesanya keeps strafing. Adesanya hand-fights to stop a left hand from coming over the top, and he flicks out a number of jabs and kicks the body with either leg. Adesanya pushes off with a front kick, and Strickland answers him with one of his own. When Strickland raises his leg to prepare for a kick, Adesanya kicks him anyway. Adesanya connects with a right over the top in the midst of an exchange, but he mixes up strikes to the body and head to keep Strickland guessing. Strickland walks him down with a pair of jabs and a push kick, and he protects himself from most of what comes back towards him. Adesanya reaches him with a right hand, and Strickland counters with one that brushes off his foe’s forehead. A head kick from Adesanya is narrowly guarded in time, and Adesanya resets and eats a check left hook. Strickland gives chase with a one-two, and he stands Adesanya up with a left hand when swarming him. Adesanya gathers himself and jabs the head and body, only to be met with a push kick. When Adesanya kicks low, Strickland pops him in the chops with a sharp jab. Adesanya slips a punch, retaliates, and takes a body shot and a left hook. Adesanya jabs a few more times as Strickland cannot reach him, and he gets knocked back to the wall from a jab. Strickland lands a front kick, misses with a left hand, and the tepid round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 4
The two have reached the championship rounds, and Adesanya begins a bit more aggressive than before with a number of snappy jabs. Strickland ignores them all as he continues to come towards his foe, and Adesanya responds with a left hand. Strickland pushes his foe back with a punch to the chest, and Adesanya gives him a head kick back. Adesanya moves and kicks the challenger’s body, and he whiffs on a left hook. Adesanya lands a left hand to the body, and Strickland kicks him three times down the middle. A Strickland right hand draws a reaction out of his opponent, and Adesanya tries to slug it out only to get caught with a left hook from Strickland. Adesanya rebounds with a right hand and a kick to the ribs, only to get no-sold by “Tarzan.” Both men trade jabs, and the champion does not get a head kick through but does reach the mark with a right hand. Strickland lets Adesanya come at him so he can string together five or six punches, and Adesanya is surprised as he puts his guard up and backs away. Adesanya springs into action with an overhand right, but it is one-and-done as Strickland is back in his face with a jab. Strickland gets intercepted on his way in, and Adesanya chains a punch into a ripping body kick. Strickland pokes with a front kick, and he keeps jabbing to fluster Adesanya further. Adesanya has a low kick checked, and he keeps his hands low while Strickland is chasing after him. Adesanya tries to swing hard, but Strickland closes in to let the strikes go wide. The champ gets off a jab, and he snipes his target with a right hand. Strickland stands firm and composed while Adesanya is struggling to find any effective offense. Strickland has two punches pound off the guard, and he kicks the body once before the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 5
Strickland is so fired up between rounds, he gets out of his corner, jumps to the center of the cage and starts hitting himself in the face. When the last round opens, Adesanya lands a low kick and circles. Adesanya puts up two high kicks, and Strickland’s defense is tight and solid. The two graze right hands off the other, and Adesanya leans back and gets popped with a right hand. Adesanya chips at the lead calf, and he forces a right hand over the top but does not quite reach him. Strickland picks away at the champ with a jab, and Adesanya reaches out with a body kick. Strickland checks a kick and continues to walk him down, and Adesanya may be a few minutes away from losing in a massive upset. He recognizes this and lands a huge right hand, and Strickland responds with a jab on the nose. Adesanya whips a high kick that gets guarded, and they both land jabs at the same time. A push kick from Strickland forces Adesanya to reset, and he is fearlessly approaching the champion. Strickland connects with an overhand right, and he lands a second to force Adesanya to escape out the side. Strickland backs his foe up against the fence, and Adesanya swings with a left but it does not get through. Strickland stings “The Last Stylebender” with a short combination, and he continues to come at Adesanya. Strickland starts shouting at the champion, telling him to fight him, and Adesanya can only muster a few kicks. Strickland powers forward swinging for the fences, and Adesanya has nothing left to offer. The final horn blares to end this fairly lackluster match, but it is one that will make history. Barring a bizarre series of scorecards, the challenger has done it, pulling off an upset that few if any expected would happen. When the scorecards are read, the UFC has a new middleweight king, and the belt belongs to Strickland. MMA might be the craziest sport in the world. The fights never stop coming, however, and another title is up for grabs next week. We will be here for it, and we hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (49-46 Strickland)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (49-46 Strickland)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (49-46 Strickland)
The Official Result
Sean Strickland def. Israel Adesanya via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
Angelo picks Israel Adesanya confidently, saying it should be Izzy all day and the -650 should be wider. He notes that Izzy is an elite striker with power and technique, while Strickland is a blue-collar volume puncher with no particular power or speed. Angelo expects a one-sided win for Izzy, possibly by decision. He suggests betting Izzy minus 5.5 points for better value.
Big Brady confidently picks Israel Adesanya, noting Strickland lacks power and wrestling threat. He thinks Adesanya will pick him apart for five rounds. He is not sure about a finish due to Strickland's durability. He predicts a decision win.
Cody picks Israel Adesanya as the rightful favorite, citing his speed advantage, technical striking, and ability to stay on the outside and pick apart Strickland. He notes that Strickland's best chance is to make it ugly with grappling, but doubts he will employ that game plan consistently. Cody acknowledges the line is juiced but sees Adesanya winning the majority of rounds, especially with the hometown crowd in Australia.
Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya confidently, citing Adesanya's superior striking, counter-punching, and leg kick game. He notes that Sean Strickland walks in a straight line, backs up in a straight line, and doesn't cut off the cage properly, which will leave him open to Adesanya's combinations. Levi also mentions that Strickland's parrying style leaves his chin exposed to follow-up strikes. He acknowledges the possibility of an upset but believes Adesanya has him covered in all areas.
Lucrative James is highly confident Israel Adesanya will win, calling him a deserved -600 favorite. He sees no clear path for Sean Strickland: Strickland lacks power, takedown threat, and volume to outwork Adesanya. James expects Adesanya to land calf kicks, forcing Strickland to switch stances and lose power. He believes Adesanya will make it look easy, possibly by decision or late knockout if Strickland gets frustrated. James dismisses Strickland's chances as a fluke.
Adesanya is a disciplined striker who sets up traps and executes game plans. He has excellent takedown defense. Strickland has poor striking defense, leaving his head on the center line and leaning back. Adesanya should work leg kicks and body shots, then set up a head kick or knockout. He will likely finish within four rounds.
Paul picks Adesanya but notes the line is too wide, suggesting the true line should be around -425 to -450. He acknowledges Strickland's volume and pressure could pose problems, but believes Adesanya's precision and hometown crowd will carry him. Paul mentions that if he's having a good night, he might throw a small bet on Strickland as a hedge.
The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya over Sean Strickland, predicting a third-round TKO. He notes that Adesanya will chew up Strickland's lead leg with low kicks, as Strickland has shown vulnerability to leg kicks in fights against Abus Magomedov, Cannonier, and Brendan Allen. Adesanya's feints will cause Strickland to parry, opening up kicks. He believes Adesanya will eventually land a head kick to wobble Strickland and follow up with ground and pound for a stoppage. He does not expect an early knockout, as Adesanya may not be on cycle for this fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 49 of 85 | 57% | 49 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Pereira | 1 | 41 of 96 | 42% | 41 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 20 of 31 | 64% | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Pereira | 0 | 15 of 38 | 39% | 15 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 29 of 54 | 53% | 29 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Pereira | 1 | 26 of 58 | 44% | 26 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 49 of 85 | 57% | 8 of 28 | 15 of 21 | 26 of 36 | 48 of 83 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Pereira | 41 of 96 | 42% | 18 of 61 | 14 of 24 | 9 of 11 | 40 of 93 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 20 of 31 | 64% | 1 of 4 | 3 of 6 | 16 of 21 | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Pereira | 15 of 38 | 39% | 3 of 22 | 5 of 8 | 7 of 8 | 15 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 29 of 54 | 53% | 7 of 24 | 12 of 15 | 10 of 15 | 28 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Pereira | 26 of 58 | 44% | 15 of 39 | 9 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 25 of 55 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Alex Pereira but with very low confidence, admitting he has flip-flopped. He notes that Pereira has beaten Adesanya three times, including a knockout in their last fight. However, he acknowledges that Adesanya was winning the fight until he got caught, and that Adesanya has bounced back well from losses before. He is just going to enjoy the fight.
Big Brady picks Alex Pereira to win by third-round knockout, citing Pereira's fight-changing power and pressure. He notes that Adesanya is not a wrestler and will likely strike with Pereira, where Pereira has the advantage in power. He was impressed by Pereira's fifth-round finish in their first fight and believes he can do it again.
Cody agrees with Paul on Pereira at plus money. He doesn't buy into Adesanya's wrestling either, noting his only takedown in the UFC was against Pereira. Cody points out that Pereira trains with Glover Teixeira and has improved his grappling. He also argues that the first fight was closer than people remember, with close rounds, and that the champion's mystique may have influenced scoring. He sees value on Pereira.
Connor picks Pereira because Adesanya has repeatedly fallen into a passive, cautious style that allows Pereira to find his one-punch knockout. Despite Adesanya's technical advantages and ability to hurt Pereira, he has shown a psychological block that prevents him from maintaining aggression. Connor notes that Pereira's counter left hook is always a threat and that Adesanya's defensive footwork is poor, making him vulnerable when he hangs around. He acknowledges that Adesanya could win if he fights aggressively, but he hasn't seen that version consistently.
Jacob is confident in Alex Pereira, questioning how anyone can pick against a guy who is 3-0 against Adesanya. He notes that Adesanya fights scared against Pereira, especially against the fence, and that Pereira's power is a constant threat. He believes Pereira will knock him out again, possibly even quicker this time, as Pereira seems more motivated.
Adesanya is the more complete fighter with more paths to victory. He was winning the first fight until the fifth-round KO. He can implement grappling, leg kicks, and his usual striking to avoid Pereira's power. Pereira is a heavy hitter but has limited grappling and cardio. I think Adesanya's team will adjust, and he wins a decision, though Pereira's power always poses a threat.
Paul sees Alex Pereira as a plus-money champion who has already defeated Adesanya multiple times, including in MMA. He believes Adesanya's wrestling narrative is overblown since he trains at a kickboxing gym and hasn't shown that skill. Paul thinks Pereira will be more confident with MMA experience and can win rounds or land a knockout. He acknowledges it's a close fight but feels the plus money is too good to pass up.
The MMA Guru picks Alex Pereira to win by second-round KO. He expects a similar fight to the first, with Adesanya failing takedown attempts and Pereira winning the clinch with body shots. He predicts Pereira will edge round one, then in round two, he will catch Adesanya with a straight right hand against the cage, rocking him badly and finishing him on the ground. He emphasizes that Pereira will not get rocked at the end of round one this time.
Zane picks Pereira because Adesanya has a history of taking his foot off the gas when he has momentum, allowing Pereira to get back into fights. He points to the Whittaker rematch as instructive, where Adesanya hurt Whittaker but then became passive and never adjusted. Zane believes Adesanya's cautious approach is a mental block, and despite encouraging quotes about being more aggressive, he needs to see it to believe it. He notes that Pereira is a massive middleweight and could have weight-cut issues, but that's not factored into his pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 0 | 86 of 162 | 53% | 119 of 209 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 6:34 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 91 of 157 | 57% | 140 of 214 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 23 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 23 of 41 | 56% | 28 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 2 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 20 of 44 | 45% | 30 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 17 of 36 | 47% | 33 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 | |
| 3 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 14 of 25 | 56% | 31 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:47 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 19 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 20 of 35 | 57% | 26 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 30 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 5 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 9 of 15 | 60% | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 28 of 37 | 75% | 30 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 86 of 162 | 53% | 41 of 103 | 21 of 29 | 24 of 30 | 77 of 148 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 10 |
| Israel Adesanya | 91 of 157 | 57% | 42 of 89 | 27 of 33 | 22 of 35 | 76 of 139 | 14 of 17 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 23 of 43 | 53% | 6 of 22 | 6 of 8 | 11 of 13 | 23 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 23 of 41 | 56% | 1 of 12 | 8 of 10 | 14 of 19 | 19 of 36 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Pereira | 20 of 44 | 45% | 14 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 | 19 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 17 of 36 | 47% | 12 of 25 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 5 | 15 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alex Pereira | 14 of 25 | 56% | 7 of 17 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 10 |
| Israel Adesanya | 8 of 14 | 57% | 3 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 4 | Alex Pereira | 20 of 35 | 57% | 10 of 19 | 6 of 11 | 4 of 5 | 20 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 15 of 29 | 51% | 8 of 18 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 6 | 11 of 24 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Alex Pereira | 9 of 15 | 60% | 4 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Israel Adesanya | 28 of 37 | 75% | 18 of 26 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Adesanya (-130), Pereira (+110)
Round 1
At long last, the main event is here. The middleweight championship will be on the line for two men that know one another intimately. This will be their second meeting in the cage, but fourth across combat sports, and Pereira (7-1, 4-0 UFC) is 3-0 thus far. The once-dominant champion Adesanya (23-2, 12-2 UFC) met his match last November, falling to a salvo of strikes in the fifth round in a fight he was winning. Needing no further introduction or hype, the two stand directly in front of one another as referee Dan Miragliotta gives the final instructions as the two do not break eye contact. The match begins with no glove touch, and Pereira lashes out first with a low kick. Adesanya responds with a few body kicks, and he kicks the calf as well. Pereira strikes the low leg again, and they trade kicks to this target and this target alone. The pace is slow and deliberate, with the middleweights well out of punching range. Pereira gets off a low kick, and Adesanya slaps him in the face with his foot. Pereira scores a few more leg kicks, and he does not flinch any time Adesanya manages to land on him. Pereira slides his foot up Adesanya’s shoulder with a head kick, but Adesanya dodges it well enough to not let it strike him in the face. Pereira jabs the body and kicks at the lead leg, and he dips back from a looping one-two. The former champ gets off a pair of body kicks, and Pereira continues his assault on the former champ’s calf. Adesanya whips another kick to the ribcage, and he slams a few kicks to the Brazilian’s inside leg. “The Last Stylebender” strikes the body with his shin, and Pereira kicks low and high – the second misses, and the crowd gasps. Adesanya looks to split the guard, but Pereira protects himself and scores a heavy calf kick. The action-free round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Adesanya
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Adesanya
Round 2
When the second round begins, Adesanya fires off several high kicks that Pereira blocks or dodges. Adesanya sits down on a calf kick, and Pereira nods at him. Pereira absorbs a head kick and nods, and he walks Adesanya down and starts slugging it out with him. The Brazilian wings huge punches, and Adesanya eats a few of them and backs off to bounce off the wall. Pereira corners him, but he lets him off the hook when Adesanya gets off a good shot. Adesanya begins to lead the dance again, with several kicks from his rear leg to the midsection and raised guard. Pereira attacks both calves with kicks as Adesanya switches stances, and “The Last Stylebender” reaches him with a few punches. One jab in response from Pereira knocks Adesanya back with much more emphasis behind it. Adesanya winds up with a right hook, and Pereira frowns and resets to keep pounding on Adesanya’s calf. They fire jabs at one another from a wide distance, and Adesanya slams his shin on Pereira’s inner thigh. Adesanya clips Pereira with a clean left hook, and Pereira walks through it and two follow-up punches to aim a right hand down Broadway. Adesanya strings a few punches to the body and one to the head, and he skirts back as a low kick comes at him. Pereira lands another low, and Adesanya counters him with an overhand right. They come together and throw hands, with Adesanya the one to break and escape as Pereira walks him down. The champion stuns Adesanya with a calf kick, and Adesanya is compromised. Adesanya falls back to the cage, barely able to stand up, and Pereira lays into him with a brutal series of body shots and a knee. Adesanya desperately fires off a right hand to back Pereira off, and Pereira reels but stands back up. Adesanya connects with one second right hand flush on the temple, and “Poatan” collapses to the ground like a ton of bricks. Before Miragliotta can reach them, Adesanya lands one more shot for good measure out of the playbook of Dan Henderson against Michael Bisping, and Pereira is completely unconscious, dreaming of his ancestors. Adesanya stands up and mocks Pereira’s bow-and-arrow move from before and motions to fire three arrows at the fallen Brazilian. Incredible! Adesanya has done it, exacting some modicum of revenge on the man to beat him three times before. The building erupts as Adesanya celebrates his triumph, and Pereira is out for a while and eventually comes to. “The Last Stylebender” claims the microphone and gives a motivational speech about the thrill of victory, imploring everyone to have this feeling at least once in their life. Whether Adesanya moves on to challenge new opponents vying for his throne or if they set up the rubber match for all the marbles, we will be certainly be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Israel Adesanya def. Alex Pereira R2 4:21 via KO (Punches)
Angelo acknowledges that Pereira has beaten Adesanya twice in kickboxing, including by KO, but he picks Adesanya because he is the current middleweight champion with 24 UFC fights against Pereira's seven. He notes that both are strikers and unlikely to grapple, but believes Adesanya's MMA experience and cage control could be factors. He admits it is insane to pick against the champion but does so reluctantly. He has a bet on under 4.5 rounds at +150.
Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya to win by decision, citing Adesanya's superior defensive striking and ability to avoid clean shots. He notes that Pereira has a puncher's chance but Adesanya fights smart and avoids risks, making it a 'boring' but effective game plan. He mentions the big cage favors Adesanya's movement and that Pereira's power is terrifying but Adesanya doesn't give opportunities to land clean. He also notes that Adesanya has never been knocked down in the UFC.
Cody picks Pereira as a live underdog, citing Pereira's size and power advantage over Adesanya's previous opponents. He notes that Pereira has already beaten Adesanya twice in kickboxing, including a knockout, and that the mental edge favors Pereira. He also points out that Adesanya's defensive wrestling is untested and that Pereira's grappling has improved training with Glover Teixeira. Cody believes Pereira can win a straight kickboxing match and has the power to hurt Adesanya.
Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to retain the middleweight belt, citing Izzy's superior MMA experience and resume against top competition like Whittaker, Vettori, and Cannonier. He notes that while Pereira has knockout power and a history of beating Izzy in kickboxing, MMA is a different sport with smaller gloves, no standing eight-count, and the ability to clinch and grapple. Levi is hesitant because Pereira's left hook is a constant threat, and Izzy must be perfect for 25 minutes. He mentions the odds are a discount compared to Izzy's usual lines, but he has no bet on the fight and plans to enjoy it as a fan.
The host believes Adesanya is the superior striker with better technique and combinations, and that the smaller MMA gloves will allow his shots to land cleaner. He acknowledges Pereira's power and left hook but thinks Adesanya's discipline and output will win the fight, likely by decision. He sees no value in betting Adesanya at -180 but picks him to win.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Pereira as an underdog. He notes that Pereira has won both kickboxing matches against Adesanya and has been training with Glover, improving his grappling. Paul points out that Adesanya has never landed a takedown in the UFC and that Pereira's cardio should be fine in a stand-up fight. He also mentions that the line has fluctuated and he can wait for weigh-ins to bet, but he will have money on Pereira.
The MMA Guru picks Alex Pereira, arguing that Pereira has improved more than Adesanya in striking since their kickboxing fights. He believes Adesanya has plateaued and that Pereira's size, reach, and power will be decisive. He notes that Adesanya has been hit by lesser strikers like Whittaker and Cannonier, and predicts a second-round KO. He dismisses the grappling threat, citing Pereira's training with Glover Teixeira and his defensive awareness.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 0 | 116 of 230 | 50% | 163 of 277 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 90 of 157 | 57% | 141 of 217 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 22 of 48 | 45% | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 18 of 28 | 64% | 18 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 28 of 48 | 58% | 28 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 19 of 31 | 61% | 19 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 17 of 35 | 48% | 35 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 17 of 36 | 47% | 38 of 62 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 | |
| 4 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 24 of 45 | 53% | 40 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 16 of 36 | 44% | 31 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 | |
| 5 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 25 of 54 | 46% | 38 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 20 of 26 | 76% | 35 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 116 of 230 | 50% | 60 of 165 | 26 of 31 | 30 of 34 | 114 of 226 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 90 of 157 | 57% | 36 of 89 | 32 of 40 | 22 of 28 | 78 of 143 | 12 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 22 of 48 | 45% | 7 of 29 | 6 of 8 | 9 of 11 | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 18 of 28 | 64% | 1 of 6 | 6 of 8 | 11 of 14 | 18 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 28 of 48 | 58% | 12 of 32 | 9 of 9 | 7 of 7 | 28 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 19 of 31 | 61% | 6 of 15 | 9 of 11 | 4 of 5 | 19 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Israel Adesanya | 17 of 35 | 48% | 9 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 17 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 17 of 36 | 47% | 7 of 22 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 27 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Israel Adesanya | 24 of 45 | 53% | 15 of 34 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 16 of 36 | 44% | 8 of 27 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Israel Adesanya | 25 of 54 | 46% | 17 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 7 | 23 of 52 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Cannonier | 20 of 26 | 76% | 14 of 19 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Israel Adesanya, citing his superior speed, technique, and counter-striking. He notes that Cannonier offers no takedown threat, making it a pure kickboxing match where Izzy is the better kickboxer. He acknowledges Cannonier's power but believes Izzy's defense and timing will prevail.
Big Brady is confident in Israel Adesanya, citing his size, speed, and striking advantage. He believes Cannonier has no clear path to victory, as wrestling is unlikely and striking on the outside favors Adesanya. He predicts a decision win, possibly a late finish if Cannonier rushes.
Cody believes Adesanya is the cleaner striker and will manage range effectively. He notes Cannonier tends to wait on his punches and doesn't throw high volume, which will allow Adesanya to dictate the pace. He sees a decision victory or late stoppage as likely.
Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to win, citing his superior range, stance switching, and fight IQ. He notes that Adesanya's fainting game and variety of strikes make him difficult to deal with, and that Cannonier's only path is to capitalize on Adesanya's occasional defensive lapses. Levi acknowledges Cannonier's power and durability but believes Adesanya's technical edge will prevail. He mentions the line is about right and sees no value in betting at -500.
Adesanya is faster and more technical. Cannonier's path to victory is a KO, but Adesanya's defense and movement make that unlikely. Cannonier is not a proactive grappler and doesn't have exceptional cardio. Adesanya should win a decision, possibly a late finish.
Paul thinks the line is too wide but still expects Adesanya to win. He highlights Adesanya's leg kicks and movement to stay out of danger, and notes Cannonier lacks the wrestling to exploit Adesanya. He sees a decision win but won't bet at -500.
The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya to win by TKO in the fourth round. He believes Adesanya's leg kicks and range will be key, and that Cannonier, at 38, will take risks when behind on the scorecards, leading to a counter shot finish. He notes Cannonier's forearm injury from blocking kicks and expects Adesanya to capitalize.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 1 | 79 of 169 | 46% | 98 of 188 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 59 of 136 | 43% | 74 of 151 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 1 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 16 of 41 | 39% | 24 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 17 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 | |
| 3 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 17 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 12 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 | |
| 4 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 15 of 39 | 38% | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 16 of 35 | 45% | 19 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 5 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 24 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 17 of 26 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 79 of 169 | 46% | 36 of 108 | 14 of 23 | 29 of 38 | 77 of 167 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 59 of 136 | 43% | 38 of 105 | 8 of 11 | 13 of 20 | 54 of 130 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 18 of 34 | 52% | 3 of 14 | 4 of 6 | 11 of 14 | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 9 of 21 | 42% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 16 of 41 | 39% | 9 of 30 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 9 | 16 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 12 of 33 | 36% | 7 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Israel Adesanya | 17 of 33 | 51% | 11 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 16 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 12 of 28 | 42% | 9 of 20 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 5 | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Israel Adesanya | 15 of 39 | 38% | 6 of 26 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 16 of 35 | 45% | 10 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Israel Adesanya | 13 of 22 | 59% | 7 of 14 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 10 of 19 | 52% | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Adesanya to win by decision in a very competitive fight. He notes that Whittaker's path to victory is grappling, but Marvin Vettori tried that and still lost. He thinks Adesanya has surprises on the ground and is more precise with power. He suggests buying a few rounds on the scorecard for Whittaker as a prop.
Big Brady is confident in Adesanya due to his reach advantage, striking skills, and takedown defense. He dismisses the narrative that Whittaker will wrestle, noting Adesanya stuffed four takedowns from Vettori and still won 50-45. He believes Whittaker will struggle to close distance again, and Adesanya will win comfortably, possibly by late knockout. He calls it one of his most confident picks.
Cody believes Whittaker hasn't shown enough improvement since the first fight to change the outcome. He highlights Adesanya's superior striking and takedown defense, noting that even when taken down, Adesanya gets back up quickly. He thinks Whittaker's chin is compromised from the Yoel Romero wars and that Izzy will eventually land the knockout.
Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to win the rematch, citing Adesanya's precision striking and ability to get inside opponents' heads. He notes that Whittaker has looked good in his three-fight win streak but hasn't shown anything to suggest he can overcome Adesanya's accuracy. Levi also mentions that Whittaker drops his left hand and that Adesanya's jab can change the fight. He expects Adesanya to win by decision this time.
Whittaker has improved since the first fight, with better game planning and activity. He should mix in takedowns and volume to win rounds. Adesanya has been taken down more recently, and Whittaker's style is more elusive than Vettori's. The odds are too wide; Whittaker should be closer to +150. He wins a decision.
Paul agrees with Cody that Adesanya will win again. He notes Whittaker's takedowns against Gastelum were opportunistic and won't work against Adesanya's improved takedown defense and get-up game. He thinks standing at range with Izzy is a losing strategy and expects a similar outcome to the first fight.
The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya by decision, citing his leg kicks, range control, and suspected PED use. He believes Whittaker's patience will play into Adesanya's game and that Adesanya's takedown defense and ability to get up will be key.
Marvin Vettori - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 88 of 186 | 47% | 90 of 188 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 77 of 149 | 51% | 77 of 149 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 27 of 49 | 55% | 28 of 50 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 25 of 47 | 53% | 25 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 31 of 71 | 43% | 31 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 30 of 55 | 54% | 30 of 55 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 30 of 66 | 45% | 31 of 67 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 22 of 47 | 46% | 22 of 47 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Vettori | 88 of 186 | 47% | 78 of 176 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 9 | 86 of 181 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 77 of 149 | 51% | 60 of 130 | 9 of 10 | 8 of 9 | 73 of 143 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marvin Vettori | 27 of 49 | 55% | 22 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 27 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 25 of 47 | 53% | 18 of 40 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | |
| 2 | Marvin Vettori | 31 of 71 | 43% | 27 of 67 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 68 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 30 of 55 | 54% | 21 of 45 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 27 of 52 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marvin Vettori | 30 of 66 | 45% | 29 of 65 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 65 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 22 of 47 | 46% | 21 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Marvin Vettori, citing his incredible durability and experience against top competition. He notes that Vettori has been fighting the top 10 for years, while Ferreira has not faced the same level. Angelo acknowledges Ferreira's power and judo but doubts his cardio and ability to hurt Vettori. He expects Vettori to weather an early storm and win a decision, and he bet on the over 2.5 rounds.
Big Brady picks Marvin Vettori despite calling him 'washed'. He notes Vettori's durability and volume, and Ferreira's cardio issues, referencing Ferreira's loss to Abus Magomedov. He expects Vettori to mix in takedowns, grind on Ferreira, and submit him in the third round.
Cody picks Vettori, citing his durability and volume. He notes that Vettori has never been finished and has gone the distance with top competition. He believes Ferreira relies on early finishes and will fade if he doesn't get them. He thinks Vettori will outwork Ferreira and win by decision.
Connor picks Brunno Ferreira, citing that Vettori has lost his way after leaving Kings MMA and now fights without a clear game plan. He notes that Ferreira is a power puncher with submission threats, and while Vettori should win on paper, his recent performances show he is adrift. Connor calls it a vibes pick.
Daniel picks Ferreira, citing Vettori's decline (1-5 since title fight), lack of power, and fading durability. He believes Ferreira's power and finishing ability will be too much, and he expects Ferreira to become the first to finish Vettori in the UFC. He notes Vettori's volume edge but doubts it matters.
Lucrative James believes Marvin Vettori has looked washed recently, with declining durability. He notes Ferreira's power and thinks Vettori's chin may finally crack. He acknowledges the risk of betting against a proven chin but sees value in Ferreira as an underdog. He leans towards a KO win for Ferreira but does not predict the method definitively.
The host notes the opposite recent records but sees this as a step up in competition for Ferreira. He highlights Vettori's never-been-finished durability and Ferreira's lack of decision wins, expecting Vettori to bully Ferreira and pull out the win in deep water.
Paul agrees, emphasizing Vettori's chin and experience against elite fighters. He notes that Ferreira's wins are all first-round finishes and that he has never won a decision. He believes Vettori's size and durability will allow him to outlast Ferreira and win by decision or late finish.
The Guru picks Brunno Ferreira to finish Marvin Vettori, despite Vettori's legendary chin. He notes Vettori is becoming more hittable and showing damage, and Ferreira has KO power and submissions. The Guru predicts a first-round finish by TKO or submission.
Zane picks Brunno Ferreira, agreeing that Vettori has destroyed his own ability to fight with a good process. He notes that Ferreira is a power puncher with poor footwork but has knockout wins. Zane believes Vettori's indecision and gun-shyness could lead to Ferreira landing a big shot.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 109 of 253 | 43% | 115 of 262 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:17 |
| Brendan Allen | 0 | 111 of 224 | 49% | 119 of 233 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 1:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 29 of 58 | 50% | 35 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:17 |
| Brendan Allen | 0 | 30 of 55 | 54% | 38 of 64 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 | |
| 2 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 36 of 95 | 37% | 36 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brendan Allen | 0 | 42 of 83 | 50% | 42 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 44 of 100 | 44% | 44 of 100 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brendan Allen | 0 | 39 of 86 | 45% | 39 of 86 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Vettori | 109 of 253 | 43% | 98 of 239 | 5 of 7 | 6 of 7 | 99 of 240 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 8 |
| Brendan Allen | 111 of 224 | 49% | 86 of 194 | 18 of 23 | 7 of 7 | 100 of 210 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marvin Vettori | 29 of 58 | 50% | 25 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 21 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 8 |
| Brendan Allen | 30 of 55 | 54% | 23 of 46 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 10 | |
| 2 | Marvin Vettori | 36 of 95 | 37% | 34 of 92 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 36 of 95 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brendan Allen | 42 of 83 | 50% | 32 of 71 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 41 of 82 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marvin Vettori | 44 of 100 | 44% | 39 of 94 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 42 of 98 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Brendan Allen | 39 of 86 | 45% | 31 of 77 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 36 of 83 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Allen (-245), Vettori (+200)
Round 1
Last year, middleweight contenders Vettori (19-8-1, 9-6-1 UFC) and Allen (24-7, 12-4 UFC) met on a casino floor, where their meeting ended with a brawl. The promotion elected to place that inside the Octagon, with referee Bassel Mahgoub in charge. They plan on settling their bad blood, and have the next 15 minutes or fewer to do so. There is no glove touch.
Vettori advances, trusting his iron chin, and he tests it early when Allen wings several high kicks and punches at him. Vettori takes them all cleanly without budging, firing back a right hook that shakes Allen up. Allen retaliates and busts Vettori’s nose up, and he shoots in for a double and hurls the Italian to the mat. Allen’s ground-and-pound makes Vettori turn around, and he takes the back and gets both hooks in. Allen starts hunting for a rear-naked choke, but partially because of the blood, Vettori slips his neck free. The explosive Italian surges up to a knee despite Allen riding him like a bucking bronco, under fire the whole time. Chants for “USA” in support of Allen boom in the building, and he clasps his hands and takes Vettori for a ride. Allen clings on the back but slides off, with Vettori assuming top position and finding himself quickly in leglock danger. Vettori pushes through the sub setup to spin around and deliver fierce ground-and-pound until Allen ties him up.
Vettori uses his elbow to bash Allen in the cheek, and his own strikes briefly have Allen turning around to present his own back. Vettori threatens with a rear-naked choke, and Allen shakes him off and gets to his feet. Allen drives a kick to the ribs, and they both nail one another with looping punches. Vettori’s face is a bloody mess but there may not be many individual cuts on it, and he is unconcerned as he lets his hands go and rings Allen’s bell once or twice. Allen absorbs a body kick and a right hand, and he jabs his man back. Allen tries to put a few punches together, and Vettori hits him harder and makes him reevaluate his approach. Vettori follows a jab with a left hand, and Allen cracks him with a right that sends him staggering back. Allen leaps forward and takes a right hand on the bow, and when he lands, they bang it out to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Round 2
The middleweights measure one another with early jabs, with Allen’ head movement protecting him from most other than a couple straight left hands that reach him. Allen responds with a body kick, and Vettori snaps his head back with power jabs. A huge left hook from Vettori goes wide, and Allen times a solid body shot down the middle. Allen loops two lefts around the guard and points at the Italian, and Vettori returns fire with a pair of one-twos. Allen has busted Vettori up again with his brief but effective combos, and he times an elbow when Vettori comes at him. Allen slams a shin to the ribs and pecks out a jab, escaping out of the way from the worst of a pair of hooks. The two trade it out, with Allen pushing Vettori back after the exchange. Allen snaps out several jabs, rocking Vettori with two subsequent right hands that he celebrates by pointing at Vettori again. Allen walks Vettori down to the wall, cornering him and making him bite on fakes and feints.
Allen is briefly drawn into a slugfest that knocks him back, and he sees the telegraphed hurled arms coming at and past him. When Vettori misses, Allen stabs him in the torso with two front kicks, toes extended. They land at the same time, and Allen counts his connect and hits Vettori again for good measure. Vettori is bloodied and bruised but still throwing just as hard as before, clipping Allen at the end of a left but not slowing him down one instant. Allen is right back in his face with jabs and right hands to follow, and a body kick lands on the belt line as Vettori appears briefly concerned of a foul but does not ask for it to be called. Allen overswings a right hand, and Vettori stands him up with his counter. Allen replies with a right hand and points once more, drawing “The Italian Dream” into a slugfest where he controls the terms of engagement. Vettori knocks Allen back a step with a punch or two, but he cannot get Allen to reset as the pressure may be starting to get to him. Allen wraps his foot upside Vettori’s head, and Vettori drills him with a punch combination right as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Round 3
Reaching the last round, Allen reintroduces himself with a body kick. Vettori does not want to be left out, and he hurls a high kick at his opponent that bangs into the guard. Allen chips at the front leg to disrupt Vettori’s forward movement, drilling him with a one-two after it. Allen pops Vettori in the chops with a right hand, briefly stunning him, but his remarkable durability is on display again as Allen walks him down pointing at him. Allen keeps his right hand up to parry the check right hook coming his way, slipping around another to catch Vettori. Not to be outdone, Vettori hurts Allen with a combination. Allen gathers his thoughts and makes blood spray from the Italian’s face with a thunderous combination, but Vettori does not so much as wobble. Vettori mixes up punches to split the guard with one, and Allen gives him something to think about with one to the solar plexus. Vettori wings a big left hand that skims off the side of the head, and his right that follows hits a little harder. Allen ignores them to work the body with a kick.
Allen keeps on the pressure, celebrating his handiwork when something clean lands and he avoids the response. He does this a few times, as Vettori slows every so often but is still throwing fire. Vettori whiffs with looping punches, and a left hand knocks Allen back a bit. Allen bites down on his mouthpiece and cracks Vettori back. Vettori is a bruiser and stands right in the pocket to trade, while Allen does the same and follows a few punches with a knee that stings his opponent. Vettori a little shaken up, Allen takes him down with a well-timed double. The Italian does not stay grounded for long, exploding back to his feet with a bit under a minute left. The defense falls through the floor for these two, who jack one another in the jaw with everything they still have. Allen lands a left and gets up a head kick on the other side, and his follow-up elbow hurts Vettori. Vettori backs off to the fence, bounces off it and rallies to engage in one final brawl. “All In” obliges him, and the two middleweights bang it out right to the final bell in a blood-and-guts battle that is an early frontrunner for “Fight of the Night” if one is awarded at night’s end. Each round was individually close, so scores could be all over the map here.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen (30-27 Allen)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Vettori (29-28 Allen)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vettori (29-28 Allen)
The Official Result
Brendan Allen def. Marvin Vettori via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Marvin Vettori despite being an underdog, citing his durability and consistent forward pressure. He questions Brendan Allen's mental consistency and identity, noting Allen's talent but tendency to underperform. He suggests a plus 3.5 bet on Vettori as a safer play.
Big Brady leans Marvin Vettori, disagreeing with the line that makes Allen a heavy favorite. He argues Vettori has advantages in striking volume, cardio, and durability, and that Allen's best wins are unimpressive. He expects a close split decision, possibly influenced by Allen's hometown.
The host thinks this is a great matchup for Vettori to keep the fight upright, bully Allen in the clinch and in pocket exchanges, and pull away on the scorecards. This indicates a clear path to victory.
The MMA Guru picks Brendan Allen over Marvin Vettori, predicting a 29-28 decision. He criticizes Vettori's lack of power and volume, noting that he landed only about 90 significant strikes in recent fights. Allen is described as more versatile with kicks and grappling, though he can be reckless. The Guru believes Allen will mix in takedowns and out-hustle Vettori, who is coming off a long layoff and personal issues. He also notes that Vettori cannot finish Allen and that Allen's chin is durable enough to handle Vettori's shots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 111 of 220 | 50% | 112 of 221 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 141 of 338 | 41% | 141 of 340 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 19 of 38 | 50% | 19 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 17 of 52 | 32% | 17 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 20 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 31 of 66 | 46% | 31 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 22 of 34 | 64% | 22 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 18 of 62 | 29% | 18 of 63 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 | |
| 4 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 21 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 37 of 71 | 52% | 37 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 29 of 60 | 48% | 30 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 38 of 87 | 43% | 38 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Vettori | 111 of 220 | 50% | 72 of 173 | 8 of 11 | 31 of 36 | 110 of 218 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Dolidze | 141 of 338 | 41% | 85 of 253 | 20 of 36 | 36 of 49 | 137 of 332 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marvin Vettori | 19 of 38 | 50% | 8 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 10 | 19 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Dolidze | 17 of 52 | 32% | 9 of 40 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 10 | 17 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marvin Vettori | 20 of 45 | 44% | 12 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 9 | 20 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Dolidze | 31 of 66 | 46% | 18 of 50 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 13 | 31 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marvin Vettori | 22 of 34 | 64% | 16 of 26 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 22 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Dolidze | 18 of 62 | 29% | 12 of 50 | 2 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Marvin Vettori | 21 of 43 | 48% | 12 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 10 | 21 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Dolidze | 37 of 71 | 52% | 24 of 51 | 4 of 7 | 9 of 13 | 36 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Marvin Vettori | 29 of 60 | 48% | 24 of 53 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 28 of 58 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Dolidze | 38 of 87 | 43% | 22 of 62 | 10 of 16 | 6 of 9 | 36 of 83 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Roman Dolidze over Marvin Vettori in the rematch. He cites Vettori's two-year layoff, a rumored shoulder injury, and Dolidze's progression since their first fight. Angelo notes Dolidze has improved his striking and grappling activity, and he likes the 'win inside distance, decision no action' prop for Dolidze because he can finish and is durable.
Big Brady picks Marvin Vettori, arguing that the first fight was close but Vettori outlanded Dolidze in two of three rounds. He emphasizes that this is a five-round fight, which favors Vettori's superior cardio and minute-winning style, while Dolidze is not a five-round fighter and needs a finish to win. Brady believes Vettori's takedown defense will keep the fight standing, where he will outwork Dolidze. He predicts a decision win for Vettori, though he expresses concern about corrupt judges.
Cody believes Hernandez's weaponized gas tank and constant pressure will eventually break Dolidze, especially in a five-round fight. He notes Hernandez is a slow starter and has durability issues, but expects him to take over in later rounds. He suggests live betting Hernandez after the first round for better value.
Connor picks Vettori despite acknowledging the X-factors of injury and camp change, because he believes Vettori's Kings MMA programming makes him durable and consistent. He notes that Vettori's style of moving forward and punching is hard to break, and that Dolidze's unathletic brawling may not be enough to overcome Vettori's pressure. However, he expresses concern that Vettori might try to be too technical after the layoff.
Daniel picks Roman Dolidze as a plus money underdog, acknowledging the speed and movement advantage of Imavov but believing Dolidze's dangerous finishing ability and durability give him a chance over five rounds. He notes Dolidze's cardio concerns but thinks Imavov fades harder, and that Dolidze's leg lock threat is mitigated by Imavov's training with Ciryl Gane. He is not confident, calling it a tough fight where he could be frustrated if Dolidze gets outpointed.
The host expects Vettori to replicate his previous decision win, using his ability to mix it up in the clinch and improved striking to shut down Dolidze's overaggressive nature. He predicts Vettori will outpoint, out strike, and out grapple Dolidze to win on the scorecards.
Paul thinks Dolidze has improved striking and can exploit Hernandez's questionable standup and body vulnerability. He believes the market has overcooked Hernandez and sees value in Dolidze as a dog. He plans to wait for better odds, possibly plus 300 on fight day.
The MMA Guru picks Roman Dolidze, believing he could have won the first fight. He notes Dolidze's momentum with three fights in 2024, including wins over Anthony Smith and Kevin Holland, showing improvement. He questions Marvin Vettori's activity and recovery from the Cannonier beatdown and an injury. He thinks Dolidze's finishing potential and size advantage are key, and he predicts a 48-47 decision win for Dolidze, though a finish is possible. He also notes Dolidze is an underdog.
Zane picks Dolidze based on the suspicion that Vettori's long layoff and potential camp change to American Top Team could disrupt his game. He notes that Vettori backed up a lot and got hit hard in their first fight, and that Dolidze came worryingly close to outworking him. However, he acknowledges Dolidze's unathletic style and that Vettori is durable and hard to put away.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 153 of 301 | 50% | 154 of 302 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 241 of 411 | 58% | 257 of 428 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 38 of 71 | 53% | 38 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 29 of 66 | 43% | 29 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 24 of 50 | 48% | 24 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 82 of 125 | 65% | 94 of 138 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 31 of 50 | 62% | 31 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 49 of 81 | 60% | 52 of 84 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 4 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 37 of 76 | 48% | 37 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 32 of 57 | 56% | 32 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 | |
| 5 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 23 of 54 | 42% | 24 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 49 of 82 | 59% | 50 of 83 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 153 of 301 | 50% | 117 of 257 | 15 of 21 | 21 of 23 | 148 of 293 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 241 of 411 | 58% | 173 of 339 | 39 of 43 | 29 of 29 | 195 of 354 | 26 of 31 | 20 of 26 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 38 of 71 | 53% | 31 of 63 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 37 of 69 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 29 of 66 | 43% | 14 of 51 | 8 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 28 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 24 of 50 | 48% | 21 of 44 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 22 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 82 of 125 | 65% | 62 of 104 | 15 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 58 of 96 | 12 of 13 | 12 of 16 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 31 of 50 | 62% | 23 of 42 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 30 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 49 of 81 | 60% | 36 of 66 | 8 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 41 of 70 | 7 of 10 | 1 of 1 | |
| 4 | Jared Cannonier | 37 of 76 | 48% | 26 of 63 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 8 | 37 of 75 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 32 of 57 | 56% | 22 of 46 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 7 | 32 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Jared Cannonier | 23 of 54 | 42% | 16 of 45 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 49 of 82 | 59% | 39 of 72 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 36 of 66 | 6 of 7 | 7 of 9 |
Angelo picks Marvin Vettori, trusting his chin and pressure. He notes that Vettori's takedowns and volume should be effective against Jared Cannonier, who can be gun shy at 39. Vettori lands more significant strikes and has only lost to top competition. Angelo has a half unit moneyline bet on Vettori at minus 145.
Big Brady picks Marvin Vettori to win by decision. He believes Vettori will implement a wrestling-heavy game plan, pushing Cannonier against the cage and taking him down, similar to Israel Adesanya's second fight strategy. He notes Cannonier hasn't faced many wrestlers recently and has been taken down in the past by Derek Brunson and David Branch. Brady emphasizes Vettori's superior cardio, toughness, and durability, and thinks he can win minutes with control and grappling over 25 minutes. He does not expect a finish but sees a clear path to a decision win.
Cody initially gravitates toward Vettori due to his elite generalist skills, cardio, and durability, but he reconsiders after reviewing Cannonier's last fight against Sean Strickland, where Cannonier landed 141 significant strikes and proved he can maintain pace for five rounds despite his muscular build. He notes that Vettori's wrestling may not be good enough to take Cannonier down and hold him there, and that Vettori's last fight against Roman Dolidze was a close call where many thought he lost. Cody ultimately leans Cannonier for landing more damaging strikes, but acknowledges the fight could go either way and recommends betting live rather than pre-fight.
Connor picks Vettori, citing his consistency, durability, and high output. He argues that Vettori is more reliable minute-to-minute than Cannonier, and that Cannonier's lack of a systematic approach will allow Vettori to outwork him. Connor expects a five-round decision where Vettori lands more strikes and edges out rounds.
Daniel Levi picks Jared Cannonier, citing comparable volume but a significant power advantage for Cannonier. He notes Cannonier's high output against Strickland (140+ significant strikes) and believes Cannonier lands the harder shots that impress judges. He expects a decision win for Cannonier, though acknowledges a finish is possible. He also mentions Cannonier's leg kicks as a key weapon and Vettori's susceptibility to them. He got Cannonier at +100 and expects the fight to be close but favors Cannonier's power.
Cannonier lands more significant strikes over a prolonged period, similar to what Roman Dolidze did but for longer. Vettori's striking is improving but he will struggle to implement his clinch/grappling game because Cannonier is tough to keep in one spot and difficult to hold down. Cannonier keeps the fight upright, uses leg kicks and movement, and lands big shots down the middle. Vettori is very durable so Cannonier wins by decision.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting the line has shortened from +130s to near pick'em, which he considers sharp. He thinks Vettori can take Cannonier down but cannot hold him down and maintain position. He likes the over 2 takedowns prop for Vettori but is not fully committed. He leans Cannonier for landing more damaging strikes over 25 minutes but says anything could happen.
The MMA Guru picks Jared Cannonier over Marvin Vettori, arguing Cannonier is more dynamic with leg kicks, body kicks, and elbows, while Vettori mostly boxes. He compares their common opponents: Cannonier held his own against Robert Whittaker and Israel Adesanya, while Vettori was schooled by both. He also notes Cannonier knocked out Derek Brunson, while Vettori went to a decision. He predicts a 49-46 decision win for Cannonier.
Zane picks Cannonier because he believes Cannonier's power will be the deciding factor. He notes that Cannonier is not consistent but has a 'get out of jail free card' with his power, and that Vettori has been pushed out of his fight by power punchers like Whittaker and Adesanya. Zane expects a close fight where Cannonier's power wins out over Vettori's durability and output.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 106 of 218 | 48% | 106 of 218 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 71 of 192 | 36% | 71 of 192 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 38 of 75 | 50% | 38 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 29 of 71 | 40% | 29 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 28 of 69 | 40% | 28 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 16 of 50 | 32% | 16 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 3 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 40 of 74 | 54% | 40 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 26 of 71 | 36% | 26 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Vettori | 106 of 218 | 48% | 60 of 165 | 8 of 13 | 38 of 40 | 100 of 212 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Dolidze | 71 of 192 | 36% | 52 of 169 | 11 of 15 | 8 of 8 | 67 of 180 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marvin Vettori | 38 of 75 | 50% | 24 of 60 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 12 | 35 of 72 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Dolidze | 29 of 71 | 40% | 20 of 62 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 29 of 69 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marvin Vettori | 28 of 69 | 40% | 11 of 48 | 3 of 6 | 14 of 15 | 28 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Dolidze | 16 of 50 | 32% | 12 of 44 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marvin Vettori | 40 of 74 | 54% | 25 of 57 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 13 | 37 of 71 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Dolidze | 26 of 71 | 36% | 20 of 63 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 61 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Vettori because of his cement chin, incredible cardio, and submission defense. He thinks Dolidze will fade and cannot take Vettori down. He notes Dolidze's takedowns are trash and his only path is a submission, but Vettori's submission defense is good enough. He has a bet on Dolidze inside distance (decision no action) as a hedge.
Big Brady picks Vettori, citing his higher output (4.20 vs 2.62 significant strikes per minute) and durability (never knocked out). He questions Dolidze's path to victory, as Vettori is tough to finish and Dolidze has low volume. He predicts a decision win, but notes the odds are surprising and he may look for a prop instead.
Cody picks Vettori, arguing Dolidze is a 'comeback kid' who relies on finishing but fades in longer fights. He notes Dolidze's low volume and poor cardio, while Vettori is durable, has solid wrestling, and good cardio. He thinks Vettori wins by decision, possibly with takedowns. He says minus 270 isn't bad and likes Vettori by decision prop.
Connor picks Vettori for his consistency and durability. He notes that Vettori is a roundly solid fighter who doesn't get submitted or knocked out, and he maintains a steady output of one-twos. Dolidze is more of a wild athlete who relies on flashy moments but lacks process. Connor points out that Jack Hermansson was dominating Dolidze before collapsing, and Vettori is a tougher matchup because he won't break. He thinks Vettori's pace and durability will overwhelm Dolidze, who cannot craft a game plan to break Vettori down.
Jacob picks Dolidze, believing Vettori is an emotional idiot who will eventually shoot a takedown and get submitted. He thinks Vettori has no power and Dolidze can land a big shot. He notes Dolidze is undefeated except for a fight where Jacob picked against him. He is riding the Dolidze train until it falls off.
Vettori is a strong grappler with good clinch work and durability, though his striking is still developing. Dolidze is on a four-fight winning streak with knockout power, but his striking is technically lacking and he can be reckless. Vettori should weather early storms and use his wrestling to control the fight, likely winning a decision. The minus 300 line is a bit steep but the skill gap is clear.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Vettori. He notes Dolidze's volume is so low that an elite fighter should be able to do what Jack Hermansson did and extend it over 15 minutes. He likes Vettori by decision at minus 120 and says Dolidze has never been finished but Vettori can outpoint him.
The MMA Guru picks Marvin Vettori over Roman Dolidze, despite Vettori's sometimes questionable game plans. He notes Dolidze is dangerous on the ground but has poor striking and was easily picked apart by Jack Hermansson on the feet. Vettori outstruck Hermansson and stuffed his takedowns, so he should do the same to Dolidze. He predicts a 30-27 decision for Vettori, warning that if Vettori shoots takedowns he deserves to lose.
Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing Vettori's block-headed consistency. He notes that Vettori doesn't collapse when outsmarted; he just keeps coming. Dolidze is a flashy fighter but lacks the technical foundation to break Vettori down. Zane also mentions that Vettori's takedown defense and ability to stop takedowns are solid. He thinks Dolidze's best chance is a lucky shot, but Vettori's durability and pace will carry him to a decision win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 74 of 166 | 44% | 74 of 166 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 33 of 116 | 28% | 38 of 121 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 22 of 56 | 39% | 22 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 14 of 41 | 34% | 16 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 25 of 53 | 47% | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 10 of 45 | 22% | 11 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 27 of 57 | 47% | 27 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 9 of 30 | 30% | 11 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 74 of 166 | 44% | 49 of 138 | 6 of 9 | 19 of 19 | 72 of 163 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Marvin Vettori | 33 of 116 | 28% | 15 of 94 | 7 of 10 | 11 of 12 | 33 of 116 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 22 of 56 | 39% | 15 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 22 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 14 of 41 | 34% | 6 of 33 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 25 of 53 | 47% | 17 of 43 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 10 of 45 | 22% | 4 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 27 of 57 | 47% | 17 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 8 | 25 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Marvin Vettori | 9 of 30 | 30% | 5 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Robert Whittaker easily, citing his speed, cleaner striking, five-round cardio, and improved grappling. He notes Vettori has a brick head and is hard to finish, so he expects a decision win. He has a moneyline bet on Whittaker at -235 and says the line has moved to -300s.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision. He argues that Whittaker has phenomenal takedown defense and get-up game, so the fight will stay on the feet where Whittaker is the better striker. He notes that Vettori has a granite chin and has never been knocked out, so a finish is unlikely, but Whittaker should outpoint him comfortably.
Cody picks Robert Whittaker, arguing that Whittaker is at his best against aggressive fighters who come forward, as he becomes the counter puncher. He notes that Vettori is a 'junkyard dog' who will brawl, but Whittaker's precision, volume, and ability to make mid-round adjustments will be decisive. Cody also points out that Vettori is not a power puncher, so Whittaker's suspect chin is less of a concern, and that the fight is three rounds, which favors Whittaker's cardio. He recommends Whittaker by decision to improve the -210 price.
Daniel Levi picks Robert Whittaker but expresses hesitation, citing concerns about Whittaker's motivation after two title losses and potential drop-off. He acknowledges Vettori's hunger and mental strength, but believes Whittaker is technically superior. He notes that Whittaker has been hurt in recent fights and that Vettori could potentially finish him, but ultimately leans on the chalk. He does not bet the fight himself.
The host is confident in Whittaker, citing his superior athleticism, striking, wrestling, and overall skill. He expects Whittaker to stay at range, land leg kicks, and possibly secure takedowns. He prefers the decision prop at minus 105, as Vettori is durable and hard to finish.
Paul leans toward Marvin Vettori as a slight underdog, citing Vettori's durability, forward pressure, and wrestling. He is concerned that Whittaker has been hurt many times and may be shopworn from wars with Yoel Romero and Israel Adesanya. Paul believes Vettori's volume and ability to grind out takedowns could be the difference, and that the line is closer than -215/+185. He admits he hasn't bet it yet and will see how weigh-ins go.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Robert Whittaker over Marvin Vettori, stating that Vettori's main problem is talent and skill. He praises Whittaker's boxing ability, footwork, and evolution, noting his dominant win over Kelvin Gastelum. He believes Whittaker will outclass Vettori on the feet with teeps, leg kicks, jabs, and head kicks, and that Vettori won't be able to take him down or outgrapple him. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for Whittaker, with Vettori complaining about the decision afterward.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 163 of 260 | 62% | 172 of 269 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 190 of 346 | 54% | 214 of 373 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 3:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 35 of 53 | 66% | 35 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 39 of 68 | 57% | 42 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 36 of 65 | 55% | 36 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 40 of 80 | 50% | 40 of 80 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 3 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 17 of 29 | 58% | 19 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 31 of 55 | 56% | 47 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:27 | |
| 4 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 32 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 49 of 81 | 60% | 53 of 85 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 | |
| 5 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 45 of 66 | 68% | 50 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 31 of 62 | 50% | 32 of 63 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:59 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Vettori | 163 of 260 | 62% | 82 of 174 | 67 of 72 | 14 of 14 | 154 of 249 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 6 |
| Paulo Costa | 190 of 346 | 54% | 154 of 307 | 33 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 168 of 316 | 21 of 29 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marvin Vettori | 35 of 53 | 66% | 13 of 29 | 18 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 34 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 39 of 68 | 57% | 34 of 62 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 37 of 66 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marvin Vettori | 36 of 65 | 55% | 14 of 42 | 18 of 19 | 4 of 4 | 35 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 40 of 80 | 50% | 29 of 69 | 10 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 36 of 72 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marvin Vettori | 17 of 29 | 58% | 13 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Paulo Costa | 31 of 55 | 56% | 23 of 46 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 27 of 51 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 4 | Marvin Vettori | 30 of 47 | 63% | 16 of 32 | 11 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 28 of 45 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 49 of 81 | 60% | 41 of 73 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 38 of 66 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Marvin Vettori | 45 of 66 | 68% | 26 of 47 | 17 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 43 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Paulo Costa | 31 of 62 | 50% | 27 of 57 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo finds this a very tough pick. He initially had Costa but flipped to Vettori because Vettori has more ways to win (grappling, durability). He notes Vettori's takedown accuracy is under 50% and he struggles to keep people down, while Costa has 80% takedown defense. He's worried Vettori will get sucked into a striking match. He ultimately picks Vettori but is not confident. He loves a prop bet on Costa: 'wins inside the distance, decision no action' at -110, meaning if Costa wins by KO he gets paid, if he loses a decision he gets a refund.
Big Brady picks Vettori to survive Costa's early storm and win late, citing Vettori's durability, five-round experience, and never-been-KO'd record. He notes Costa's takedown defense (80%) and strength make him hard to take down, but believes Vettori's wrestling and cardio will prevail in later rounds. He predicts a fifth-round TKO or submission.
Cody picks Marvin Vettori, expecting to get a better live price after Vettori likely drops the first round. He highlights Vettori's durability, cardio, and experience in five-round fights, contrasting with Costa's questionable cardio and history of gassing. Cody notes Costa's impressive pressure against Yoel Romero but points out his poor performance against Adesanya and his tendency to fade after two rounds. He believes Vettori can take over in rounds 3-5 and recommends betting live after the first round.
Lock picks Vettori based on durability and cardio advantage. He notes Costa's cardio drops after 8 minutes and Vettori's pace will take over late. He expects Vettori to survive early onslaught and finish in rounds 3-5. He also likes Vettori inside the distance and round props.
Paul initially leans towards Costa but is swayed by Cody's reasoning. He acknowledges Vettori's durability and chin, but also notes Costa's power and the possibility of a knockout. Paul suggests that if betting Costa, the knockout prop at +225 is the way to go. He ultimately agrees that waiting for live markets is the best approach, but does not commit to a clear pick.
The MMA Guru picks Marvin Vettori, citing Costa's questionable cardio and mindset after his first KO loss. He believes Vettori's durability, pressure, and activity will allow him to take over in the later rounds. He predicts a rear-naked choke finish in round 4, drawing parallels to Vettori's fight with Omari Akhmedov.
Expert Picks (6)
Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya, emphasizing his significant reach advantage, takedown defense (82%), and cardio advantage in a five-round fight. He expects Vettori to have early success with takedowns but fade as the fight progresses, allowing Adesanya to take over on the feet. He predicts a decision win for Adesanya.
Cody believes Vettori can replicate Jan Blachowicz's game plan by pressuring Adesanya, mixing in takedowns, and using his durability and cardio. He notes Vettori's improvement since their first fight and his ability to go five rounds. Cody sees value in the underdog line and thinks the fight goes the distance, so he also likes the over 4.5 rounds.
Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to edge a close decision, acknowledging Vettori's toughness and pressure. He notes that the line is too wide and that Vettori has a chance if he can grind Adesanya against the fence. He mentions Adesanya's chin-in-the-air habit and Vettori's iron jaw. He respects Vettori's determination but thinks Adesanya's skill will prevail.
Vettori has improved significantly since the first fight, especially his wrestling and clinch work. He can close the distance, take Adesanya down, and control him on the ground, as seen in the first fight and in Jan Blachowicz's blueprint. Adesanya's takedown defense diminishes as fights go on. Vettori's durability allows him to eat Adesanya's strikes and keep coming. Expect Vettori to win a decision by grinding out rounds.
Paul dismisses the Jan fight as a weight-cut issue and believes Adesanya's striking is on a different level. He thinks Adesanya will clip Vettori and possibly get a knockout, though he also sees the fight going the distance. He considers Adesanya the value side at -265.
The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya, citing his superior striking, reach, and takedown defense compared to Kevin Holland. He notes Vettori's quick turnaround from the Holland fight and lack of time to improve. He predicts Adesanya will lose the first round but take over, finishing Vettori in round 4 via TKO (body kick) due to exhaustion. He also mentions Adesanya's possible steroid use as a factor.
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