vs
-198 +175
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · Jun 12, 2021 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 Next Fight
Age 37
Height 5' 11"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 48
Height 6' 1"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Belal Muhammad
4.43 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
3.82 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
2.14 TD Avg
36.0% TD Acc.
90.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Demian Maia
1.8 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
2.07 SApM
63.0% Str. Def.
2.49 TD Avg
24.0% TD Acc.
61.0% TD Def.
1.0 Sub. Avg
Belal Muhammad
Moneyline
FanDuel -198
KO/TKO
BetWay +400
Submission
BetWay +1200
Decision
BetWay +105
Demian Maia
Moneyline
BetWay +175
KO/TKO
BetWay +1000
Submission
BetWay +350
Decision
BetWay +500
Belal Muhammad - Fight History
SCHED vs Gabriel Bonfim
13
138 MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

The host picks Belal Muhammad, citing his pace and cardio over five rounds as the deciding factor. He acknowledges that Bonfim is more technical and skilled, but believes Muhammad's relentless forward pressure and grappling will wear Bonfim down, especially in the later rounds. He notes that Bonfim's lone loss came to a pace-pusher in a three-round fight, and now he faces five rounds of Muhammad.

"I'm going to take Belal to get this done."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

AJ believes Belal Muhammad will bounce back from recent losses to top competition, using his wrestling and control time to neutralize Gabriel Bonfim. He notes Bonfim's height advantage and striking volume but questions his takedown defense (76%) compared to Muhammad's (90%). AJ acknowledges the risk of Muhammad's age and recent striking deficits but expects a rebound win, possibly by decision.

fight might go to decision
"I think Bal Muhammad bounces back in a big way. Uh, you know, it might go to a decision though."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Gabriel Bonfim

AJ picks Bonfim to win, citing his youth, precise striking, leg kicks, and jiu-jitsu. He believes Bonfim's footwork and accuracy will trouble Muhammad, and that Muhammad's wrestling edge is negated by Bonfim's grappling. AJ expects Bonfim to do damage on the feet and possibly win by decision or late finish.

over 3.5 rounds minus 175; Bonfim by decision or KO
"I'm going with Gabriel Bonef to beat the side of Balor Muhammad... I think Bonef is going to be bit too quick for Bal Muhammad."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Angelo picks Belal Muhammad, believing he will slow the pace and use his wrestling to grind out a win. He notes Muhammad's toughness, cardio, and ability to outwork opponents. He thinks Muhammad needs to make the fight boring and avoid giving Bonfim room to strike. He has never seen Muhammad break, while Bonfim has been broken before.

"Balam Muhammad needs to avoid giving Gabriel the room to breathe, the room to throw. We have seen Gabriel Brafen be broken. I have never seen Bal Muhammad break."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Big Brady picks Belal Muhammad to win by decision. He highlights Muhammad's elite durability and takedown defense, and thinks the five-round fight favors Muhammad's cardio. He doubts Bonfim can take Muhammad down or knock him out, and expects Muhammad to take over as the fight goes on. He also notes that Bonfim's recent wins are questionable.

by decision
"Balam Muhammad by by decision for me."
BU
Bum MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Belal Muhammad has heart and a great gas tank, and he will push the pace to win a close decision. Gabriel Bonfim is overrated, with a controversial win over Stephen Thompson and a loss to Nicolas Dalby. Bonfim tends to not push the gas pedal, while Muhammad will outwork him.

decision win; odds: Belal -140 favorite
"I think Bal is just going to push more and win a 3-2 decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Cody picks Belal Muhammad, emphasizing that the longer the fight goes, the more it favors Muhammad due to Bonfim's poor cardio and lack of durability. He notes Bonfim is explosive early but fades, and Muhammad has proven five-round cardio and durability. He suggests live betting Muhammad after the first two rounds for better value.

Live betting after first two rounds for better value
"I'm taking blah Muhammad, but you're going to get a much better number after the first two rounds."
FI
Fight Night Picks Expert Confident picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Belal Muhammad is picked due to his superior cardio and pressure, which will break Gabriel Bonfim over five rounds. The host notes Bonfim's only loss was to Nicolas Dalby, who maintained a high pace, and Belal's boxing and wrestling are better. He sees Belal winning by unanimous decision or late stoppage, as Bonfim's submission skills are from top position and Belal is good at avoiding danger. The host is not sold on Bonfim as a prospect and believes Belal's championship experience is key.

Belal Muhammad wins by unanimous decision or later stage stoppage; likes him at -140
"I think Bal Muhammad is still a championship caliber uh type of fighter. I've always been on the opposite end of the Gabrielle Bonfam hype train."
GR
Greedo Plays MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Muhammad's wrestling and cardio are elite, and Bonfim has never faced a wrestler of his caliber. Bonfim's takedown defense is questionable, as he was taken down by lesser fighters. Muhammad should control the fight for 25 minutes and win a unanimous decision.

unanimous decision
"I'm going to go with Bal remember the name Muhammad to beat Gabrielle Bonfam in the Apex this Saturday by unanimous decision."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Lucrative James picks Belal Muhammad despite the 10-year age disadvantage, citing Belal's superior experience, gas tank, and wrestling. He believes Bonfim is a 'finish or bust' fighter who will fade after the first couple of rounds, and that Belal's durability and veteran savvy will allow him to survive early submission threats and take over in later rounds. He predicts a round 4 or 5 knockout via ground and pound.

Belal Muhammad via KO in round 4 or 5
"I will be picking as you can guess Bal Muhammad at 37 years old against the up and coming hungry 28-year-old. I'm going to pick him to win the fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Muhammad's high pace, durability, and cardio should overwhelm Bonfim, who has cardio issues. Bonfim's best chance is an early stoppage, but if it reaches the third round, Muhammad will take over and likely get a TKO in round 4.

Muhammad by TKO in round 4
"I think if this reaches the third round, that means that Bal is able to survive the power of Bombfi and has been successful in terms of implementing his pace."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Paul picks Belal Muhammad but is hesitant, noting Bonfim could land something early. He prefers to watch live and has placed prop bets on Muhammad winning in rounds 4 and 5 at high odds, expecting Muhammad's cardio to prevail in later rounds.

Round 4 prop at +2400, Round 5 prop at +3400
"I don't really have any inclination to get hyperinvested in below Muhammad at minus 120 pre flop, but definitely a fight like you that I'll be paying attention to very much live."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Nov 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Belal Muhammad 0 56 of 139 40% 97 of 197 0 of 7 0% 0 0 3:35
Ian Machado Garry 0 72 of 141 51% 96 of 167 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Belal Muhammad 0 24 of 57 42% 30 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:40
Ian Machado Garry 0 27 of 53 50% 31 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Belal Muhammad 0 11 of 33 33% 28 of 58 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:49
Ian Machado Garry 0 20 of 39 51% 35 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
3 Belal Muhammad 0 21 of 49 42% 39 of 70 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:06
Ian Machado Garry 0 25 of 49 51% 30 of 54 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Belal Muhammad 56 of 139 40% 45 of 126 8 of 9 3 of 4 52 of 131 4 of 8 0 of 0
Ian Machado Garry 72 of 141 51% 35 of 98 10 of 15 27 of 28 66 of 134 6 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Belal Muhammad 24 of 57 42% 17 of 49 5 of 5 2 of 3 23 of 55 1 of 2 0 of 0
Ian Machado Garry 27 of 53 50% 14 of 36 2 of 5 11 of 12 27 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Belal Muhammad 11 of 33 33% 9 of 30 2 of 3 0 of 0 10 of 30 1 of 3 0 of 0
Ian Machado Garry 20 of 39 51% 9 of 27 3 of 4 8 of 8 19 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Belal Muhammad 21 of 49 42% 19 of 47 1 of 1 1 of 1 19 of 46 2 of 3 0 of 0
Ian Machado Garry 25 of 49 51% 12 of 35 5 of 6 8 of 8 20 of 43 5 of 6 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ian Garry vs. Belal Muhammad
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garry (-240); Muhammad (+190)

Round 1
Many have complained that this welterweight co-main attraction is not receiving five-round attention given its high stakes and that both men prefer a prolonged engagement. Nonetheless, Muhammad (24-4, 1 NC; 15-4, 1 NC UFC) and Garry (16-1, 9-1 UFC) will have three rounds to work today, meaning that every minute will count that much more. Fully aware that this one could reach the 15-minute mark, referee Rich Mitchell is in it for the long haul. The fighters do not touch gloves, opting to get right down to business.
Muhammad punches his way in, and Garry backs him off with a low kick and one high. Garry gets away with a slight eye scrape, and after a combination, he pushes off and jams his finger into Muhammad’s right eye socket. The few punches he landed have opened a cut beneath Muhammad’s left eye, which is not the one poked. Mitchell calls time and brings in the doctor but does not have a towel or cloth to wipe out the former champ’s eye. Mitchell admonishes the doctor for not bringing in the towel, who then comes in and bizarrely (and improperly) tends to the cut instead of the eye. The fighter cleans his eye out and is ready to go after about 100 seconds. Garry is quick to get right back behind his jab, intercepting Muhammad as he looks to change levels. Garry pushes out a front kick and checks a kick, and Garry’s low kick response is far heavier. Garry fires off a high kick from a safe distance, stay away from Muhammad getting his hands on him. Muhammad tries to cream him with a huge overhand right, missing it by a matter of millimeters. He tries again with the same swinging strike, and it is much more distant this time around. Garry’s jab flusters Muhammad, but he slips and has to scramble to get away. Garry stomps at Muhammad’s knee on the reset.
Muhammad paws out with his own left hand, faking level changes to draw reactions out of his opponent and marking up Garry’s cheek. Muhammad launches a head kick to target that wound, and he crashes forward when that is blocked to tie the Irishman up. Garry escapes, but Muhammad follows him and clips him with his hard right hand. Garry times a left hand that gets Muhammad’s attention, and he manages to lean back to evade the looping strike aimed at his face. Garry pounds the front leg with a kick, and Muhammad counters him with a solid left. Muhammad shoots for a single, spinning Garry around several times but not grounding him. The taller Garry keeps himself upright and puts the wall behind him so that he can rebound and break free, and he looks for spinning strikes as the round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garry
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garry
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garry

Round 2
Garry starts the round off with kicks to the lead knee, his oblique kicks hyperextending the limb when it lands flush. His jabs open a little cut on the bridge of the nose as well, and he catches Muhammad in the midst of an exchange but is nailed with the counter. Garry snaps the head back with a jab, and he leans to not get caught on the way out. Garry doubles up on his jab to plunk Muhammad with a right hand, and he spins with a back kick to the torso to punctuate the combination. Garry lands a hard leg kick, and Muhammad blitzes him with a body lock to take the fight horizontal. Garry splits off before getting dragged down, and Muhammad is warned for his outstretched fingers. Muhammad crashes the pocket again for a takedown, and the two clack heads when up close.
Muhammad puts his hand on the top of the fence illegally and is fussed at a few times before taking it back down, and the clinch continues. Muhammad embraces the grind by pressing as much of his body weight on the Irishman as he can, but Garry breaks free and trades hands with him on the way out. Muhammad shoots for a single, and Garry stifles him and bullies him on the way out. Muhammad bounces off the fence to reset, and he drives a one-two down the pipe. Garry pushes out with both hands, fingers outstretched, and he pokes Muhammad in the eye with at least his left. Mitchell calls time again and demands the doctor come back into the cage with another cloth to let him wipe it out, and Muhammad is irritated about the fouls landing on him again. Rules mean nothing, because Garry is only told to be careful with his fingers after landing multiple eye pokes and already being warned for this as well. Muhammad is good to go after about 75 seconds, and he proceeds to chase down the Irishman letting his hands go. Muhammad drops to a knee to go after a takedown, and he pushes Garry to the fence. Garry shrugs to signal he is just being held in place, so Muhammad knees him in the thigh a few times for good measure. Garry breaks out of the clinch with an elbow right at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garry
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garry
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 3
Muhammad takes a few seconds to charge his battery, and then proceeds to angrily race after Garry with his fists swinging. Garry bounces off the cage wall to get to his preferred range, and he nails Muhammad with a one-two. He follows the effective strike with a front kick that bashes “Remember the Name” in the face. Muhammad can only reply with a single entry, and Garry stops it, ducking away when Muhammad tries for something on the break. Muhammad walks him down and belts him with a vicious right hand, and Garry’s chin is granite after absorbing the blow. Muhammad bullies Garry to the wire when pursuing a takedown, and Garry’s defense holds up while Muhammad gloms onto him. Garry turns him about and has his guard ready to defend the high kick he anticipates.
Garry hurts Muhammad’s front leg with a number of push kicks to the knee, again hyperextending it and torqueing the tendons like overtuned guitar strings about to snap. They spin one another around when finding themselves in a clinch, and Garry is tripped up and bounces back to his feet as if there were springs in his heels. The Irishman walks through a pair of punches to fire back with a vengeance, clipping Muhammad with a right hand and shifting to be just out of range of anticipated counters. Muhammad settles for a clinch try, and Garry splits before long but has his hands down waiting for Muhammad to approach him. This allows Muhammad to pop him in the chops with several fast punches, only to get met with a slashing elbow that would make Jason Voorhees blush. Muhammad holds serve as he tries to give Garry everything he has left, and the two men proceed to go wild with head kicks, spinning stuff, looping punches and anything else they can muster until time expires. This one was very close and scores may vary, but a title shot may not be looming for the victor given the other recent spectacular performances at welterweight for names like Michael Morales and Carlos Prates.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garry (30-27 Garry)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garry (30-27 Garry)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garry (29-28 Garry)

The Official Result
Ian Garry def. Belal Muhammad via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Angelo picks Ian Garry over Belal Muhammad. He argues that if Garry can defend takedowns, he wins easily due to superior striking, length, speed, and power. Muhammad's only path is wrestling, but he has no Plan B. Garry showed adjustments in his loss to Shavkat, while Muhammad is one-dimensional. Angelo acknowledges the fight is competitive but favors Garry.

"I have to go Ian here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Big Brady picks Ian Machado Garry by decision, criticizing Belal Muhammad's fight IQ and game plan. He believes Muhammad will try to strike instead of wrestle, leading to a clear decision loss. He notes Muhammad's tools but doubts his execution.

decision
"I'm going to take Gary. I'm going to take Gary to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Cody picks Ian Garry confidently, noting that Belal Muhammad's wins are aging poorly and that Garry is younger, bigger, and has better takedown defense. He believes Garry can outpoint Muhammad and stuff takedowns, similar to how Michael Morales beat Brady. Cody warns against falling into the trap of hating on Belal, but ultimately sees Garry's advantages.

"I got to go Gary as well, but if you got it at minus 180 - 190 the more you start to fall to this minus 220 - 230 more"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Connor picks Garry, citing his size, reach, and athleticism as key advantages over Muhammad. He notes that Muhammad's wins have come against smaller opponents and that Garry's improved striking and clinch work from the Prochazka fight give him confidence. Connor acknowledges Muhammad's tactical skill but doubts his physicality at the elite level.

Garry by decision; fight could be similar to Shavkat vs Garry
"I think I'm going to pick Gary. I think he's big enough and the ball is not physical enough that I trust the ball because I mean, that's the other thing with Gary in that Shopkop fight is I think …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Lucrative James picks Ian Garry, citing his superior striking, youth (27 vs 37), and recent grappling improvements shown against Shavkat Rakhmonov. He believes Belal's only path is wrestling, but Garry's takedown defense and scrambling have improved. He notes the 10-year age gap and Garry's momentum. He predicts a decision win for Garry.

"I'm going to go with Ian Gary in this fight, right?"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Garry is a slick striker with high fight IQ and takedown defense. Muhammad relies on grappling pressure but may struggle to get takedowns. Garry should out-strike him and win a decision, possibly with a late finish.

Garry by decision; wait for better line
"I'm going to go Gary here. I'm going to go Gary by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Paul picks Ian Garry, having added him to parlays early. He believes Garry's length, footwork, and takedown defense will be too much for Belal, who is at the end of his career. Paul notes that Belal's wins are aging poorly and that Garry's striking and ring IQ are superior.

"I think Gary's length, footwork, probably even takedown defense is going to be too much for Bal."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

The MMA Guru picks Ian Garry over Belal Muhammad, believing Garry's striking and takedown defense will be too much. He notes Garry's performances against Shavkat and MVP. He predicts a third-round TKO, with Garry calling out Makhachev afterward.

Ian Garry to fight for more than 2.5 total rounds (from earlier prizepicks segment); third round TKO
"I'm going to go with Ian Garry. I think he finishes Belal. I think he's going to get a TKO over Belal Muhammad."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Zane also picks Garry, emphasizing his faith in Garry's improved game plan and coaching from the Prochazka fight. He notes that Garry's reach and ability to control range will trouble Muhammad, who lacks the athleticism to pressure effectively. Zane sees Muhammad's path to victory as narrow, requiring a perfect game plan.

Garry by decision; Muhammad could win if Garry regresses
"I'm taking Gary as well, but it's a very compelling matchup. I really like it."
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · May 10, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Belal Muhammad 0 132 of 318 41% 155 of 349 3 of 9 33% 0 0 3:21
Jack Della Maddalena 0 178 of 342 52% 200 of 364 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Belal Muhammad 0 21 of 49 42% 21 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Jack Della Maddalena 0 28 of 61 45% 28 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Belal Muhammad 0 21 of 63 33% 21 of 63 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:07
Jack Della Maddalena 0 30 of 63 47% 30 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Belal Muhammad 0 32 of 79 40% 32 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Jack Della Maddalena 0 34 of 76 44% 35 of 77 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
4 Belal Muhammad 0 31 of 65 47% 35 of 70 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:19
Jack Della Maddalena 0 33 of 59 55% 51 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
5 Belal Muhammad 0 27 of 62 43% 46 of 88 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:32
Jack Della Maddalena 0 53 of 83 63% 56 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Belal Muhammad 132 of 318 41% 119 of 297 11 of 18 2 of 3 116 of 295 14 of 21 2 of 2
Jack Della Maddalena 178 of 342 52% 113 of 254 47 of 65 18 of 23 167 of 326 11 of 16 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Belal Muhammad 21 of 49 42% 15 of 40 5 of 8 1 of 1 18 of 46 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jack Della Maddalena 28 of 61 45% 14 of 39 7 of 11 7 of 11 27 of 58 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Belal Muhammad 21 of 63 33% 19 of 58 1 of 3 1 of 2 19 of 61 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jack Della Maddalena 30 of 63 47% 16 of 45 10 of 14 4 of 4 29 of 62 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Belal Muhammad 32 of 79 40% 29 of 74 3 of 5 0 of 0 29 of 76 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jack Della Maddalena 34 of 76 44% 20 of 58 10 of 14 4 of 4 34 of 75 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Belal Muhammad 31 of 65 47% 30 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 0 25 of 54 5 of 10 1 of 1
Jack Della Maddalena 33 of 59 55% 27 of 48 4 of 8 2 of 3 32 of 57 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Belal Muhammad 27 of 62 43% 26 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0 25 of 58 1 of 3 1 of 1
Jack Della Maddalena 53 of 83 63% 36 of 64 16 of 18 1 of 1 45 of 74 8 of 9 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Welterweight Title Fight: Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Muhammad (-192), Della Maddalena (+160)

Round 1
Sometimes, a champion does not defend their throne against the top contender, but rather the top contender that is available at the time. This welterweight headliner will see Muhammad (24-3, 1 NC; 15-3, 1 NC UFC) put his belt on the line for the first time, and he meets Della Maddalena (17-2, 7-0 UFC) for all the marbles in a prototypical striker vs. grappler matchup at the highest level. Referee Jason Herzog will be the third man in the Octagon for a match that could very well go 25 hard minutes, and he brings them to the center of the cage to issue final instructions and touch gloves. It’s on with the show. Della Maddalena immediately takes to the center of the cage, where he jabs his way forward. Muhammad responds with a body shot, and Della Maddalena jabs him up. Della Maddalena kicks and punches his way forward, beating the champ to the punch. Muhammad responds with his own jab and a high kick that makes Della Maddalena spin around, from momentum and not damage. They flick jabs at one another, with Della Maddalena the more active of the two. Della Maddalena picks and pokes, and Della Maddalena responds with a power right hand. He lands a second, getting the challenger’s attention. The Aussie keeps his guard up to block a trio of punches coming his way, and kicks the champ upside the head and lances him with a left hand. A right hand from Della Maddalena stings Muhammad with a right hand up top, and he gets jabbed back and eats a right hand that follows. Della Maddalena’s leg kick lands a few times here and there when not landing up top, and he chains a low kick into one high. Della Maddalena sneaks in a left hand, and he nails the front leg with another kick. Muhammad lunges and cannot reach his man, but he sells out and shoots for something. He bails on it to drill Della Maddalena with a punch flurry, and his head kick at the end gets in. Muhammad dodges a knee and pushes out his own jab, and he rips a left to the body and kicks the same spot. They crash together, letting loose elbows that hurt the other, and then back off. One missed hook kick from the champ concludes the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena

Round 2
Della Maddalena begins the second stanza aggressively with kicks aimed at all targets, and he pulls back when Muhammad starts to put a jab together. Muhammad rifles off a right hand, and when Della Maddalena ducks, the champ punts him in the head. Della Maddalena’s crooked nose stays crooked as a result, and he reaches out a right hand in response. The toes of the challenger stab into his foe’s midsection, who sits in the pocket and looks for hooks from up close. Della Maddalena drives home a one-two that sends a gob of spit flying from Muhammad’s mouth, and Muhammad takes it flush and does not waver. Instead, Muhammad evades a front kick and lashes out with punches. They take turns attacking one another, until Muhammad breaks up the back-and-forth striking with a takedown shot. Della Maddalena shrugs it off, and he blocks a high kick that he knows is coming. Muhammad loops a few left hands out while trying to wrap them around the jab, and he kicks the challenger in the side that is already showing some welting. Muhammad punches his way into a takedown, and when it fails, he lands a few punches but gets caught on the way out. Muhammad catches Della Maddalena with a left hand when circling away, and he parries a front kick and comes up short by a matter of inches with his hooks. Della Maddalena jabs to the body, and Muhammad whacks him upside the head with a hard right hand. Della Maddalena responds with a combination that busts Muhammad’s nose open, and blood is quick to flow. Muhammad tries a spinning back fist, and Della Maddalena mocks him with one of his own before attempting an earnest wheel kick that brushes past the beard. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena

Round 3
The third round opens up as both men launch punches at one another, with Muhammad landing the better in the early exchange. Della Maddalena bites down on his mouthpiece to let his fists fly, and the third and fourth in a combination knock the champ’s head around. Della Maddalena dodges and sways when Muhammad returns fire, exaggerating his movement as he is feeling himself in there. Della Maddalena jabs the body with his foot, and kicks the lead shoulder. Muhammad responds in kind, and he laughs off a faked takedown effort from the Aussie. Muhammad punches his way forward, but he backs off before landing anything of merit. Instead, it is Della Maddalena who connects, with a right hand. Muhammad walks him down and connects a few times, but his nose gets further bloodied up by the speedy hands of the challenger. Della Maddalena chips at the calf, and he leans back as a right hand buzzes his temple. Della Maddalena jabs a few times, and Muhammad steels himself and launches a big right. Della Maddalena takes it flush and keeps on rolling, jabbing to the head and body as he keeps things mixed up. He rings the champ’s bell with a right hand, who then gives him back a left hook to think about. Muhammad pushes out a knee that bounces off the guard, and he chambers and fires a huge right hand that does not fluster his foe in the least. Muhammad runs forward, ignoring the jabs to let bigger punches go. This succeeds to a degree, until the boxer tags him with a right hand. Della Maddalena then scores a left as he backs away, in his element, strafing and swaying as he glides around. Muhammad walks him down and busts him in the face, and Della Maddalena laughs them off and throws back hammers. Muhammad shoots for a takedown, and he leans against his foe when he does not get it. Della Maddalena defends it and tries for his own, and Muhammad elbows him in the side and back of the head. Muhammad is warned for the strikes as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena

Round 4
Shockingly, the champion might need a finish as they enter the fourth frame, and given Muhammad’s 25% stoppage rate, it might be an uphill battle. Nevertheless, he tries hard right out of the gate, practically sprinting at the challenger and landing heavy punches. Della Maddalena lets him do this and backs away to the wall to rebound off of it, but his jabs are not deterring Muhammad any longer. Muhammad marks up the bridge of Della Maddalena’s nose, swinging with big uppercuts and getting caught on the way in. The champ shoots for a takedown, and he lets it go to unload with a massive combination of uppercuts. Della Maddalena pays him back with his own power shots, spraying the blood from Muhammad’s face all around the cage floor. Muhammad uses his pressure to push on Della Maddalena and try to take him down, and he aims a knee to the dome that is legal while Della Maddalena is leaned over. Della Maddalena succeeds in defending the takedown and spins his man around, and Muhammad breaks and lets loose a short stream of uppercuts. Della Maddalena walks him down, walks through an uppercut and ignores a jab so that he can measure his own shots. Muhammad swings wildly with a right hand and back fist after it, and Maddalena jabs and dodges. Muhammad shoots for a double, and Della Maddalena shuts him down and turns Muhammad to the wire. Muhammad spins him around and looks for a head kick up close, but he cannot keep Della Maddalena on the fence. A left hand from Muhammad blows open Della Maddalena’s cauliflower ear, and Della Maddalena responds with a right hand. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 5
Muhammad plods forward to commence the final frame, taking a deep breath and jabbing Della Maddalena around the cage. Muhammad rips a kick to the body, and he swings punches that bang into his foe’s forehead. Muhammad keeps heavy pressure, dodging a one-two and coming out swinging with a pair of right hooks. Della Maddalena staggers him with three left hands, and he skips to the side and intercepts Muhammad with a vicious knee that shreds a cut open on the corner of Muhammad’s eye. Rather than think about it, he blasts Della Maddalena with a counter, and he shoots for a takedown and finally lands it. Positioning himself in half guard, Muhammad smothers with his shoulder pressing the Aussie down. The champ hammers down with ground-and-pound, his blood covering Della Maddalena’s chest, which allows him to slip around and explode back to his feet. Della Maddalena’s eye swells up quickly from the damage inflicted, and Muhammad runs at him with his fists flying. Della Maddalena backs him off for a second with a front kick, and they proceed to hack at one another with elbows. Della Maddalena clubs the champion with a left, a right and a few more punches as he has “Remember the Name” rocked. Della Maddalena clinches up for a second before letting loose with body shots, and he tries a takedown and gets thrown to the ground. Muhammad scrambles to push Della Maddalena to his back, where he frantically lashes out with punches and elbows. Della Maddalena protects himself by putting his head between Muhammad’s legs, and he bursts back to his feet. Muhammad leans him against the cage and tries to get him down, but Della Maddalena pushes him away and kicks him in the head. The Aussie drills Muhammad with a punch combo that staggers him badly, but he peels back rather than trying to finish the job. He re-engages, and Muhammad is ready for him throwing hammers. Della Maddalena does the same right to the final bell, and the two welterweights go the distance in a thriller that few expected would turn out this way. There may be a new champion crowned, but either way, Muhammad shed part of his reputation of being boring with that 25-minute banger.
The scores are read, and just like that, the Muhammad era is over before he could defend it once. Australia has a new champion in the form of hard-nosed brawler Della Maddalena, who stepped up to the plate and exceeded all expectations with that performance. The Contender Series has another champion from its ranks, with Della Maddalena pushing his phenomenal win streak to 18 thanks to his likely bonus-winning battle. Because of this result, lightweight king Islam Makhachev is going to move up and be the first to challenge Della Maddalena soon, while Ilia Topuria takes on Charles Oliveira—possibly for an interim title—on International Fight Week. The confident new champion declares that he will "get one back for Volk" against Makhachev. We will be here for those terrific matchups, and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (49-46 Della Maddalena)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (48-47 Della Maddalena)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (49-46 Della Maddalena)

The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Belal Muhammad via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 4, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Angelo picks Belal Muhammad to defend his belt, trusting his wrestling and control. He notes Jack Della Maddalena was taken down seven times by Gilbert Burns and survived by a lucky knee. He hopes Belal fights like he did against Wonderboy (wrestle-heavy) rather than standing. He mentions the line is tightening and suggests waiting to bet. He also notes that if Belal wins, it sets up Ilia vs Islam at International Fight Week.

"I'm going to trust the process here. I do think Bal wins. Not only is he a smart guy who understands the dangers of striking, but he also carries the wrestling reputation with him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Big Brady is confident in Belal Muhammad, citing his wrestling and fight IQ. He notes Jack Della Maddalena was taken down eight times by an aging Gilbert Burns and struggled with Basil Hafez. He believes Muhammad will wrestle despite claiming otherwise, and predicts a decision win. He thinks the only way Muhammad loses is if he fights a horrible game plan.

"Give me Blow. Give me Balao. Give me Blow to win this fight by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Connor picks Belal Muhammad but with hesitation, expressing concern that Belal lacks the athletic escape ropes to get out of trouble against JDM. He notes that JDM has a habit of violently winning fights he is losing, and that Belal's wrestling may not be a reliable get-out-of-jail card. However, he ultimately believes Belal's game planning and durability will allow him to win a narrow decision.

"I'm definitely gonna pick Balala Muhammad here. I don't see how I couldn't but I do have a sneaking feeling..."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

The host views this as a favorable matchup for Muhammad after Rakhmonov's injury. He believes Muhammad's grappling, high pressure, and pace will be too much for Della Maddalena, keeping him on the defensive. He expects Muhammad to set up his grappling and grind out a decision victory.

"I think Muhammad's grappling style and high pressure, high pace will be too much for the striker in Matelena to keep up with."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru picks JDM, citing his finishing potential, ability to separate and scramble, and work with Craig Jones. He believes JDM's forward pressure and body shots will trouble Belal, who he thinks is overrated after the Leon Edwards win. He predicts a second-round TKO, noting JDM's 17-fight win streak and Belal's inactivity.

second round TKO
"I'm going with JDM. I'm going with JDM. That's what I'm doing. The boys are taking this one. JDM's getting it done."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Zane picks Belal Muhammad, arguing that Belal is a great game planner who can work around Jack Della Maddalena's limited game. He notes that Belal has successfully game-planned against many different styles, and while JDM is a dangerous puncher, Belal's durability and ability to rebuild after adversity will carry him. Zane acknowledges that Belal may only need one takedown per round to win rounds and retain his title.

"I'm definitely gonna pick Balala Muhammad here. I don't see how I couldn't but I do have a sneaking feeling..."
WIN vs Leon Edwards
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Belal Muhammad 0 47 of 71 66% 89 of 114 2 of 2 100% 0 2 7:11
Leon Edwards 0 68 of 121 56% 192 of 281 9 of 13 69% 0 0 12:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Belal Muhammad 0 15 of 21 71% 25 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:50
Leon Edwards 0 17 of 34 50% 51 of 75 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:45
2 Belal Muhammad 0 11 of 16 68% 17 of 22 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:49
Leon Edwards 0 13 of 22 59% 27 of 39 4 of 5 80% 0 0 3:25
3 Belal Muhammad 0 2 of 4 50% 19 of 22 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:18
Leon Edwards 0 4 of 9 44% 9 of 15 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
4 Belal Muhammad 0 6 of 10 60% 10 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:30
Leon Edwards 0 21 of 30 70% 62 of 82 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:17
5 Belal Muhammad 0 13 of 20 65% 18 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:44
Leon Edwards 0 13 of 26 50% 43 of 70 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Belal Muhammad 47 of 71 66% 32 of 53 12 of 15 3 of 3 35 of 58 6 of 7 6 of 6
Leon Edwards 68 of 121 56% 59 of 110 9 of 11 0 of 0 62 of 111 0 of 4 6 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Belal Muhammad 15 of 21 71% 7 of 12 7 of 8 1 of 1 10 of 16 5 of 5 0 of 0
Leon Edwards 17 of 34 50% 14 of 31 3 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 30 0 of 3 1 of 1
2 Belal Muhammad 11 of 16 68% 8 of 12 2 of 3 1 of 1 10 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 0
Leon Edwards 13 of 22 59% 13 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0 10 of 18 0 of 1 3 of 3
3 Belal Muhammad 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Leon Edwards 4 of 9 44% 3 of 7 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Belal Muhammad 6 of 10 60% 5 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Leon Edwards 21 of 30 70% 18 of 26 3 of 4 0 of 0 19 of 28 0 of 0 2 of 2
5 Belal Muhammad 13 of 20 65% 11 of 17 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 14 0 of 0 6 of 6
Leon Edwards 13 of 26 50% 11 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0 13 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Leon Edwards

Angelo picks Leon Edwards to win, citing Edwards' sharper striking and takedown defense. He notes that Belal Muhammad's wrestling pressure could be a factor, but expects Edwards to defend takedowns and frustrate Belal as the fight goes on. Angelo admits he will be rooting for Belal but believes Edwards is the more proven champion. He also mentions that Belal has been training with the Dagestani wrestlers and could maul Edwards, but still leans Edwards.

"I think Leon Edwards is going to be sharper on the feet defend a few takedowns I think balam Muhammad as the fight goes on is going to get more and more frustrated and I think Leon Edwards wins this …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Cody believes Belal Muhammad is a talented generalist who can adapt his game plan to any opponent. He points out that Belal has shown different wrinkles, such as out-striking Gilbert Burns and Shawn Brady, and that his wrestling and pressure will be key. Cody notes that Leon Edwards has a history of dropping later rounds, as seen against Colby Covington and Rafael dos Anjos, and that Belal's volume and pace could overwhelm Leon in the championship rounds. He also mentions that Belal is at his best now, while Leon's previous opponents were past their prime.

Belal Muhammad by decision
"I think he can just crash the pocket and constantly come forward and constantly pressure try to use the volume game... second third fourth and fifth he needs just to make this absolute grind."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Daniel argues that the first fight was not a domination, citing no knockdowns, no 10-8 round, and a close strike count. He believes Belal's relentless pace, high output, and ability to pressure will overwhelm Leon, who has shown fatigue in later rounds. He also notes that Belal is undervalued by the market and has consistently been a profitable underdog. He acknowledges Leon's kicking threat but thinks Belal can close distance and make it a dirty fight.

"I'm going an new balal Muhammad um and I'm riding this uh train till the to till the wheels fall off"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Daniel argues that Belal Muhammad has improved significantly since the first fight, citing dominant wins over Shawn Brady and Gilbert Burns. He believes Leon Edwards has not looked better since winning the title, coasting against Colby Covington and a diminished Kamaru Usman. He emphasizes Belal's newfound wrestling focus and improved striking reads, predicting he will overwhelm Edwards. He also advises waiting on Belal's line as it may drift further due to public sentiment against Belal's trash talk.

Wait on Belal Muhammad line; expects line to move further in his favor
"I'm going B Muhammad because since their last fight I don't know that that Leon Edwards has looked better"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Leon Edwards

Jeff picks Leon Edwards, noting he looked good in the brief first fight and has been improving since winning the belt. He acknowledges Edwards' recent opponents (Covington, Usman, Diaz) are not elite, but still trusts the champion's development. He believes Edwards' reads and feints were working before the eye poke and expects him to handle Belal's pressure.

"going with the champ he looked good in their first fight even how brief it was he was you know getting his work done getting his reads in getting his faints in"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Leon Edwards

Paul favors Leon Edwards, citing his speed, slickness, and striking advantage. He argues that Leon was winning the first fight before the eye poke and has improved his takedown defense, as seen against Colby Covington. Paul believes Belal's power doesn't scare him and that Leon will win most exchanges on the feet. He also notes that Belal's path to victory relies on takedowns and control, but Leon has made strides in those areas.

"I think Leon at you know it's minus 230 minus 250 it's kind of moved to in some spots like I think he's a rightful favorite here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Leon Edwards

The MMA Guru picks Leon Edwards by TKO in round two. He believes Edwards is a level above Belal Muhammad, as shown in their first fight where Edwards had success before the head kick. The Guru notes Edwards' reach advantage, distance management, and improved takedown defense from training with wrestlers like Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington. He thinks Muhammad will be hesitant and that Edwards will land a punch for the finish. He also mentions Muhammad's PED use as a concern but still favors Edwards.

TKO in round 2
"I'm going to go with Leon Edwards getting this one done he's got a bit of reach advantage to work with here and we know if Edwards has reach over an opponent even if he doesn't against usan he still …"
WIN vs Gilbert Burns
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · May 06, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Belal Muhammad 0 132 of 283 46% 132 of 283 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 81 of 147 55% 81 of 147 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Belal Muhammad 0 19 of 39 48% 19 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 15 of 31 48% 15 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Belal Muhammad 0 18 of 51 35% 18 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 15 of 28 53% 15 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Belal Muhammad 0 25 of 59 42% 25 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 14 of 22 63% 14 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Belal Muhammad 0 28 of 54 51% 28 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 16 of 23 69% 16 of 23 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
5 Belal Muhammad 0 42 of 80 52% 42 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 21 of 43 48% 21 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Belal Muhammad 132 of 283 46% 92 of 241 39 of 41 1 of 1 132 of 283 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 81 of 147 55% 35 of 96 13 of 16 33 of 35 81 of 147 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Belal Muhammad 19 of 39 48% 9 of 29 9 of 9 1 of 1 19 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 15 of 31 48% 7 of 22 3 of 4 5 of 5 15 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Belal Muhammad 18 of 51 35% 11 of 44 7 of 7 0 of 0 18 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 15 of 28 53% 6 of 18 0 of 0 9 of 10 15 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Belal Muhammad 25 of 59 42% 20 of 53 5 of 6 0 of 0 25 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 14 of 22 63% 7 of 14 3 of 4 4 of 4 14 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Belal Muhammad 28 of 54 51% 18 of 44 10 of 10 0 of 0 28 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 16 of 23 69% 6 of 12 4 of 4 6 of 7 16 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Belal Muhammad 42 of 80 52% 34 of 71 8 of 9 0 of 0 42 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 21 of 43 48% 9 of 30 3 of 4 9 of 9 21 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Five-Round Co-Feature: Gilbert Burns vs. Belal Muhammad
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Burns (-125), Muhammad (+105)

Round 1
A rarity in the promotion the last several years, the UFC is offering up an official “title eliminator” status for a fight. This comes at 170 pounds, between two excelling talents who are stringing win streaks together at the right time. While many believe Muhammad (22-3, 1 NC; 13-3, 1 NC UFC) should have gotten a title shot already, he will look to push his unbeaten streak to 10 when he collides with brick-fisted grappler Burns (22-5, 15-5 UFC). The two will have five rounds to work, even with no championship or main event status available. This short-notice tilt will receive oversight from referee Keith Peterson, and there is no nonsense or touching of gloves to start things off. Chants for “Let’s go, Burns” rain down immediately in the building, and Burns is spurred into action with a charging right hand. Muhammad absorbs a low kick and looks to find angles and get to Burns with his footwork. Muhammad ricochets a kick off his opponent’s raised guard, and he sneaks a left hand through it. Burns loads up on his power right hand, and Muhammad darts away and aims out a jab. Another solid right from the Brazilian connects square on the chin, and Muhammad backs off and eats a leg kick to follow. Burns flicks a kick up high off the raised guard, and he sneaks a right hand through. Muhammad retaliates with a shin to the ribs, and Burns intercepts a subsequent kick to tackle his man to the mat. Muhammad climbs right back up and strikes a few more kicks to the liver, and he dodges a swatting left hook. Muhammad stays composed and utilizes his jab effectively, mixing in kicks occasionally to stay busier. Burns comes up short on a winging hook, and he kicks the body. Muhammad counters with a straight left hand that staggers Burns, and Burns grits his teeth and slams his right fist into Muhammad’s jaw twice to make “Remember the Name” remember his power. Burns has a kick caught, and he scrambles out of the way before getting dumped to the floor. Burns goes up high with a kick, and Burns stumbles back right as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 2
The second frame kicks off as the two welterweights meet in the middle, and Burns strikes first with a stomping kick to the kneecap. Muhammad strafes to his right, and Burns follows him with a kick to the inside of the knee. Burns comes up short with a right hook, allowing Muhammad to sink in another liver kick. Burns chambers and fires a low kick and a massive right hand, and Muhammad’s beard absorbs it without much issue. Muhammad whips a high kick up, and he aims one to the body as Burns retaliates low to the inner calf. Burns paws away a one-two, and he gathers his thoughts to blast Muhammad in the face with a power right. Muhammad replies with a blocked head kick, and Burns hops around to shake it out. Muhammad is far less active, as Burns steps in with a right. The jabs from Muhammad are less constant, and Burns stings him with a right hand on the temple. Muhammad flashes his jab a few times, and Burns walks into one and storms forward. Muhammad times a body kick, and Burns gives him one to the calf back. Burns fires off a short right hand when Muhammad bears down on him, and he lets go with an inside low kick. Muhammad rips a kick to the side, and Burns surges into action and has a right hand slide off the shoulder. Burns lets fly a low kick, and he dodges a zipping left hand. Muhammad gives chase, and his fists collide with the guard. The slower round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 3
The round begins with a body kick from the Brazilian, and Muhammad retaliates with a front kick that grazes the cup. There is no pause, as Burns waves it off, and the crowd grows restless from the otherwise lack of action in the first minute. Muhammad gets off a jab or two, and Burns chambers his right hand and blocks a head kick. Burns gets off a single jab of his own, and he steps back from a looping punch. Burns kicks the lead leg a few times, and he stumbles when walking forward. Muhammad fires off a high kick that smacks into a shoulder, and Burns swings and misses wit ha haymaker. The pace is very deliberate and ineffective on both sides, and Muhammad throws two punches at a time if he can. Burns backs off, and Muhammad follows him with a head kick that bounces off the shoulder and a few straight punches. Burns tags him with a big right hand, and Muhammad shakes it off and sneaks a kick under Burns’ elbow. Burns steps in with a knee to the chest, and he gets kicked in the neck for his effort. The Brazilian appears no worse for wear, and he backs away when Muhammad jabs and front kicks at him. Burns throws a high body kick that smacks into the armpit, and Muhammad chains two kicks together with his left leg. Muhammad jabs quickly when Burns races forward, and he stays active with kicks. Muhammad gets into his groove of head kicks and jabs, stifling Burns. “Durinho” swings and misses with his right, and Muhammad makes him pay with a body shot. The tepid round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 4
Between rounds, Burns appears to be struggling with his left arm, and he complains to his corner that he cannot use it. Despite this, the championship rounds are upon them, and Burns’ body language and face show he is not having a good time in the cage. Muhammad compounds this by starting off Round 4 with a body kick and a few punches, and Burns blinks hard and drills Muhammad with a right hand on the jaw. Muhammad shakes it targets the same spot on the ribs with one more kick. Burns shells up as Muhammad kicks his body, and Burns replies with one of his own. Muhammad narrowly blocks a head kick in time, with Burns surprising him with the sudden strike. Muhammad stutter-steps his way into action, with a one-two off the guard as he leans back from a home run punch soaring at him. Burns drops down to snatch up a single, and he nails Muhammad with a blistering right hand that gives Muhammad a little wobble. Burns celebrates this with a body kick, a knee to the body and a leg kick, and he backs Muhammad away with a feint. Burns considers another single, and he abandons it because he cannot use his arm to secure it. Muhammad kicks high to the hurt arm, and Burns grimaces. Seeing this, Muhammad attacks it again with a kick up high. Muhammad shrugs off a leg kick to the inside of his knee, and he fires off two kicks to the shoulder. Burns blocks the strikes that come at him, and he splits a right hand down the pipe that shakes Muhammad up again. Muhammad weathers it and goes to jab, and the round ends with the crowd booing the welterweights.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 5
A dejected Burns is able to come out of his corner to start the last round, and a corner stoppage would not be out of the question given Burns condition. This sport rarely allows for such a courtesy, and the last round begins. Burns blocks an early head kick and loops two right hands over the top. Burns drops down for a takedown, and he abandons it and absorbs a few kicks to the head and body. Muhammad reaches his foe with a lunging right, and he is out of range when Burns attempts his overhand right. Burns is caught with a right hand coming in, and he wobbles back but gathers his balance. Muhammad punishes the ribs with the umpteenth kick to that same target, and Burns toughs it out. They both clash together with their fists, and Muhammad is the one to land better and backs Burns away. Burns secures a leg kick to buckle Muhammad’s knee for a second, but Muhammad speedily recovers and he takes another. Burns leaps in with a few rights, and Muhammad counters and fearlessly walks Burns down. Muhammad leans back from the obligatory right hook and tags him with a few punches, and he sees the telegraphed bomb and dodges it again. Burns knocks Muhammad back with his right, only for Muhammad to step in front of him and connect with a one-two. Burns swings and misses with two missiles that are right hands, with his left completely out of the picture in this fight other than as a blocking limb. They both trade heavy fire, and Muhammad darts out of harm’s way when Burns looks to reach him. When the 10-second clapper sounds, Muhammad kicks high and then aims one to the body, and the disappointing 25-minute affair comes to a merciful conclusion. The two immediately hug it out after the bell rings, and Muhammad should finally have done enough to earn a crack at the 170-pound throne.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (49-46 Muhammad)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (50-45 Muhammad)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (49-46 Muhammad)

The Official Result
Belal Muhammad def. Gilbert Burns via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Angelo picks Belal Muhammad, citing his wrestling pressure and improved striking. He notes that Gilbert Burns is coming off a quick turnaround (fought three weeks ago) and that fighters in that situation often lose. Angelo believes Belal's wrestling pace will overwhelm Burns, and he questions Burns' submission threat off his back. He has a quarter unit on Belal at +105, noting the line has tightened from Burns being a big favorite.

quarter unit at +105
"I got a quarter of a unit on below at Plus 105."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Big Brady picks Muhammad in this five-round fight. He believes Burns is the better striker early with more power, but Muhammad's cardio, pressure, and volume will wear Burns down in the later rounds. He notes Burns has questionable cardio and chin, and Muhammad has excellent takedown defense and get-up game. He predicts Muhammad will weather the early storm and finish Burns late, possibly by fourth-round TKO.

Fourth round TKO prediction
"I'm going to take Muhammad here to win this fight I like him to weather the early storm put the pressure on put the pace on and break Burns as this fight goes on"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Cody emphasizes that the five-round format heavily favors Belal Muhammad's proven cardio and durability over Gilbert Burns, who has questionable gas tank. He notes Belal's high ring IQ, ability to adjust game plans (lateral movement vs Luque, forward pressure vs Brady), and that Burns' recent wins are over older or less dangerous opponents. He expects Belal to survive early rounds and take over late, making the underdog line attractive.

Live betting after first round for better price
"pre-fight flop I will take the underdog Muhammad plus 110"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Connor also picks Muhammad, agreeing that Burns is uncomfortable under pressure and that Muhammad's jab will be key. He notes that Muhammad is a smart fighter who sticks to his game plan and that Burns' wrestling may not be a decisive factor. Connor expresses concern about Muhammad's short notice but trusts his conditioning.

"I'm going to pick Balal too, but that is my concern."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

The host picks Belal Muhammad, citing his pace, pressure, and cardio as key advantages over Gilbert Burns. He believes Muhammad's grappling-heavy style, similar to Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington, will wear down Burns, who has cardio issues. He expects Muhammad to finish Burns in the fourth or fifth round, and notes that the plus 120 odds look easy.

Belal Muhammad by TKO in round 4 or 5, plus 120 odds
"I think that this is a spot that he can go out there put Gilbert Burns through the grinder and finish him probably in the 4th of fifth round of this matchup give me give me below Muhammad a short …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Paul initially leaned toward Gilbert Burns but changed his mind after realizing the fight is five rounds, which makes the line more reasonable. He notes Burns' quick turnaround and Belal's experience fighting after Ramadan without issue. He says he's 'leaning ever so slightly towards Belal' because of the five rounds, but thinks the market has it right and it's a close fight.

Over 1.5 takedowns for Burns moved from 1.5 to 1; thinks one takedown is accurate
"I'm leaning ever so slightly towards below because of the fact that it's five rounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

The Guru confidently picks Burns, citing his peak physical condition from fighting frequently and his power advantage on the feet. He believes Burns will set traps and land big shots as Belal comes forward, and that Belal's takedowns won't worry Burns due to his jiu-jitsu. He also questions Belal's mindset and weight cut, noting Belal's complaints and inconsistent weight claims. He predicts a TKO via right hand against the cage.

TKO prediction
"I'm going with Gilbert Burns I like the fact that he called for five rounds knowing that Bilal Muhammad might not be in a peak shape I'm gonna go Gilbert Burns getting this one done by TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Zane picks Muhammad, emphasizing that Burns tends to destruct under pressure and that Muhammad's jab-centric striking is a great weapon against Burns' catch-and-counter style. He notes that Muhammad is adaptable and well-prepared, and that Burns' recent performance against Masvidal was uninspiring. Zane also mentions that the five-round fight favors Muhammad's cardio and pressure.

"I got to pick Balal Muhammad in that kind of fight."
WIN vs Sean Brady
TKO (punches) R2 4:47 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Belal Muhammad 0 80 of 209 38% 80 of 209 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Brady 0 58 of 118 49% 58 of 118 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Belal Muhammad 0 26 of 80 32% 26 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Brady 0 25 of 62 40% 25 of 62 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Belal Muhammad 0 54 of 129 41% 54 of 129 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Brady 0 33 of 56 58% 33 of 56 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Belal Muhammad 80 of 209 38% 64 of 183 11 of 19 5 of 7 79 of 206 1 of 3 0 of 0
Sean Brady 58 of 118 49% 40 of 98 4 of 6 14 of 14 57 of 117 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Belal Muhammad 26 of 80 32% 18 of 66 6 of 10 2 of 4 26 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Brady 25 of 62 40% 15 of 51 2 of 3 8 of 8 25 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Belal Muhammad 54 of 129 41% 46 of 117 5 of 9 3 of 3 53 of 126 1 of 3 0 of 0
Sean Brady 33 of 56 58% 25 of 47 2 of 3 6 of 6 32 of 55 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sean Brady vs. Belal Muhammad
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brady (-145), Muhammad (+125)

Round 1
Headlining the prelims is a welterweight matchup that could easily and comfortably headliner any UFC Fight Night or ESPN-run event. For a possible shot at the logjammed welterweight throne, Muhammad (21-3, 1 NC; 12-3, 1 NC UFC) and his eight-fight unbeaten streak run up against Brady (15-0, 5-0 UFC), who has never dropped a pro fight. Someone will take a rough loss, barring something unexpected, and referee Lukasz Bosacki will be there for it. The 170ers have a strange bit of bad blood between them and decide not to touch ‘em up, and instead Muhammad comes out aggressively to push the pace on the undefeated fighter. Muhammad scores a left hand down the pipe, and Brady looks to swipe back at him and only lands a calf kick. Muhammad keeps moving forward and clips Brady with a right hand, and he retreats as Brady races forward. Brady works the lead leg with kicks, and he walks into a knee and forces Muhammad to fall over. When Muhammad stands, Brady gives him a shove to put him back to his seat but does not follow him down. Brady allows him to stand so that he can bust him in the chops with a right hand, and he gets a few punches off that get Muhammad’s attention. Muhammad keeps coming forward as he lines up a head kick, and Brady backs him away with a high body kick. Muhammad kicks the leg, and Brady changes levels in pursuit of a takedown but it is nowhere close to materializing. Brady backs off and whips a high kick up fast, and when it is guarded, he follows it with a clean right hand over the top. Muhammad pins a one-two on the chin, and Brady counters him to make him take a step back. Brady gets tagged with a short combination, and he blocks a head kick that follows. Muhammad gets out a left hand and the two start trading, with Brady landing flush and Muhammad giving it right back to him. Muhammad connects with a heavy right hand that draws some swelling under Brady’s right eye, and Brady shoots in from a distance and does not draw out a reaction. Muhammad walks him down and starts throwing hands, and Brady replies with a left hand that opens a cut on the side of Muhammad’s right eye. The horn sounds awkwardly, and the razor-close round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 2
The pace from Muhammad does not relent as the second round begins, continuously pressing forward as Brady sits down on counters. The welterweight contenders trade low kicks, and Brady shoots and is stopped in his tracks. Brady gets off a sharp left hook that splits the guard, and he smacks Muhammad in the nose with a front kick. Brady gets off another left hook as Muhammad is walking him down, and he kicks the body to give Muhammad momentary pause. Muhammad sticks out a jab that reddens the nose, and Brady lines up a one-two that shakes Muhammad up. Muhammad keeps his fists in Brady’s face, and the nose starts to leak from the offense. Brady jumps forward, mixing punches with kicks, and Muhammad stands firm in front of him and responds with a blocked head kick. Brady leaps forward with a powerful left hook, and he celebrates his work with a low single that gets stuffed by “Remember the Name.” Muhammad lands two punches as Brady prepares and connects with a counter, and he gets rocked with a short left hand. Muhammad blinks it out and fires back with a venomous right hand, and he uses several jabs to back Brady up. A Brady entry is tossed aside, and they trade jabs as Muhammad begins to unload on his punches. They kick at the same time, and Muhammad falls to the mat and jumps back up. A shovel uppercut from the Philadelphia native gets through, and he tries to get off a combination but has his bell rung by Muhammad. Muhammad pours it on with combinations, and he hurts Brady and puts him on the proverbial ropes. Muhammad continues his bombardment of unanswered punches as he batters Brady on the wall, and Brady is in big trouble and leans over from taking punishment. Muhammad stays right in his face, pounding on him with an assault of fiery fists. Brady tries to keep Muhammad honest with a heavy counter or two, but Muhammad will not relent as he drills Brady in the face again and again. The seemingly unending barrage of blows continues until Movahedi dives in to call it a standing TKO, and Brady immediately protests although he was in a bad, bad way. “Remember the Name” makes the crowd remember his name as he moves his unbeaten streak to nine, while handing Brady his first defeat as a professional. Muhammad declares that he fought down to face Brady, and that it is time to fight up – calling out champion Leon Edwards or Khamzat Chimaev for future opportunities.

The Official Result
Belal Muhammad def. Sean Brady R2 4:47 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 16, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Angelo picks Belal Muhammad despite admitting it goes against his gut. He believes Belal's constant pressure and wrestling volume will be the difference, as Sean Brady has cardio issues and tends to slow down. He compares it to the Maximov vs Malkoun fight, where constant shooting won the day.

"I think I'm gonna pick him I think the cardio the shooting is gonna be the difference"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Big Brady picks the underdog Belal Muhammad to win by decision. He questions Brady's takedown defense (87% but untested) and notes Brady slowed down in the Chiesa and McGee fights. Muhammad has superior cardio, volume, and takedown defense (91%). He expects Muhammad to have success in the striking as the fight goes on and win a decision.

"I'm gonna leave with the law here I think below is going to have success in the Striking I think in the first round Brady even might even take it but as the fight goes on I like the the …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Cody picks Belal as an underdog, citing his relentless pace, excellent cardio, and underrated wrestling. He notes Belal's takedowns against top competition and his solid chin. Cody thinks Brady's striking is better but Belal can grind him down. He also mentions the Abu Dhabi factor and Khabib's help.

"I will actually take another flyer here on Blow Muhammad as the underdog"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Daniel Levi picks Belal Muhammad to win, calling it 'first L time' for Sean Brady. He praises Belal's fight IQ, cardio, and ability to adapt, noting he stuffed 20 takedowns against Damian Maia and overcame adversity against Vicente Luque. Levi thinks Belal's preparation with Khabib Nurmagomedov will help him deal with Brady's top control. He believes Belal will pull away in the second and third rounds. Levi bet 2 units at +116.

Bet 2 units at +116. Notes that the line should be closer to pick'em and that Belal is plus money.
"I got two units on below and plus 116."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Brady is very difficult to take down, with only one takedown allowed in four UFC fights. He transitions well from takedown attempts to back control, as seen against Chiesa. Muhammad's wrestling-heavy style may not work, and Brady's power striking could land. Brady by decision at +150 is a solid play.

Brady by decision at +150
"give me Sean Brady Shawn Brady by decision which currently sits at plus 150"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Belal's smart game plan and ability to stick to it. He mentions Belal's grappling success against Vicente Luque and that Brady hasn't been tested against top competition. Paul likes the plus money and picks Belal.

"Muhammad is the pick for both of us"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Sean Brady

The MMA Guru picks Sean Brady over Belal Muhammad, despite Brady being a favorite. He believes Brady's grappling threat will stifle Belal's stand-up, similar to the Damian Maia fight. He notes Brady's improvements, including a grappling match with Craig Jones, and predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision, with Brady winning the first two rounds.

"I'm going Sean Brady and I'm annoyed that he's a favorite"
WIN vs Vicente Luque
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. Muhammad 2 · Apr 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Belal Muhammad 0 84 of 184 45% 102 of 203 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Vicente Luque 0 60 of 155 38% 136 of 260 5 of 10 50% 0 0 7:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Belal Muhammad 0 14 of 37 37% 24 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Vicente Luque 0 9 of 33 27% 35 of 65 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:39
2 Belal Muhammad 0 15 of 35 42% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vicente Luque 0 16 of 30 53% 24 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:16
3 Belal Muhammad 0 24 of 46 52% 27 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vicente Luque 0 9 of 21 42% 21 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:21
4 Belal Muhammad 0 20 of 41 48% 21 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vicente Luque 0 13 of 44 29% 41 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:33
5 Belal Muhammad 0 11 of 25 44% 12 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Vicente Luque 0 13 of 27 48% 15 of 35 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Belal Muhammad 84 of 184 45% 54 of 141 6 of 17 24 of 26 80 of 179 2 of 3 2 of 2
Vicente Luque 60 of 155 38% 51 of 141 8 of 13 1 of 1 56 of 149 3 of 5 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Belal Muhammad 14 of 37 37% 8 of 26 1 of 5 5 of 6 13 of 36 0 of 0 1 of 1
Vicente Luque 9 of 33 27% 5 of 28 3 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Belal Muhammad 15 of 35 42% 5 of 23 2 of 3 8 of 9 15 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vicente Luque 16 of 30 53% 14 of 27 2 of 3 0 of 0 15 of 29 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Belal Muhammad 24 of 46 52% 19 of 39 3 of 5 2 of 2 21 of 42 2 of 3 1 of 1
Vicente Luque 9 of 21 42% 9 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 18 1 of 3 0 of 0
4 Belal Muhammad 20 of 41 48% 15 of 34 0 of 2 5 of 5 20 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vicente Luque 13 of 44 29% 10 of 41 3 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Belal Muhammad 11 of 25 44% 7 of 19 0 of 2 4 of 4 11 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vicente Luque 13 of 27 48% 13 of 25 0 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Angelo picks Belal Muhammad as an underdog, citing Belal's wrestling and fight IQ. He notes that Vicente Luque is dangerous on the feet and has submissions, but Belal can take him down and control the fight. He references Luque's fight with Kiesa where Kiesa had success taking Luque down but got too aggressive. Angelo believes Belal will stick to a wrestling game plan and win a decision.

"i like below muhammad in the underdog spot for the main event and i imagine he's gonna grapple a lot"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Big Brady picks Vicente Luque to win, likely by finish. He notes that Luque is dangerous everywhere—on the feet and on the mat—and that Belal Muhammad's wrestling, while improved against Stephen Thompson, may not be enough to control Luque. He points out that Muhammad struggled to take down Diego Lima (1 for 10) and that Luque has solid takedown defense and submission threats. Brady expects Luque to hurt Muhammad and finish him in the second or third round.

finish inside the distance (KO or submission), round 2-3
"i think luke is going to finish muhammad at some point in this fight whether it is like a club and sub whether it is a knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Cody picks Luque but with hesitation, noting Belal's impressive wrestling against Wonderboy. He worries about Luque's cardio in a five-round fight and his takedown defense. However, he believes Luque's hand speed and striking will be key, and that Belal's record is deceiving. He sees danger if Belal extends the fight into later rounds.

"honestly i gotta go with vincente at the end of the day the line's not terrible minus 175 i believe in favor of uh luke"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Daniel Levi picks Belal Muhammad as a +155 underdog, emphasizing Belal's ability to adapt game plans, as seen against Stephen Thompson (wrestling) and Demian Maia (striking). He notes Belal's improved lateral movement, feints, and cardio, which should allow him to survive early danger and take over in championship rounds. Levi acknowledges Vicente Luque's elite finishing ability (second most finishes in welterweight history) and the danger of his calf kicks, left hook, and d'arce choke, but believes Belal's discipline, chain wrestling, and refusal to rush submissions will be key. He is concerned about Belal fighting during Ramadan but notes he has done so before and sounded sharp in interviews. Levi states he is biased due to his friendship with Belal but insists his analysis is objective.

Belal Muhammad +155 underdog; mentions Belal by decision or late finish possible; says 'if he don't get finished, I think there's a very good chance you win this fight'
"I'm gonna take the underdog shot, I'm below here it's like blah just please don't get knocked out and there's a good chance that you win this fight."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Paul favors Vicente Luque, citing his power, finishing ability, and danger in guard if taken down. He notes Luque trains with many wrestlers and believes his striking is superior. He acknowledges Belal's wrestling but thinks Luque's path to victory is clearer, especially with a potential finish.

"i'm still leaning towards not even leaning i like vicente luke to get the job done here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

The MMA Guru picks Belal Muhammad despite being a big Vicente Luque fan. He believes Muhammad's volume and grappling will disrupt Luque's timing, and that Luque hates volume. He expects Muhammad to wear Luque down and submit him in the fourth or fifth round via rear-naked choke. He also accuses Muhammad of using steroids, citing his physique change.

fourth or fifth round submission (rear-naked choke)
"i've got a real feeling below wins this one and i'm going to pick him by fourth round renaked choke or fifth round real naked choke"
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Belal Muhammad 0 19 of 32 59% 51 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:52
Stephen Thompson 0 58 of 95 61% 171 of 271 7 of 9 77% 1 0 11:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Belal Muhammad 0 10 of 16 62% 28 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
Stephen Thompson 0 44 of 72 61% 64 of 111 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:07
2 Belal Muhammad 0 7 of 11 63% 12 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 10 of 16 62% 42 of 64 2 of 2 100% 1 0 4:11
3 Belal Muhammad 0 2 of 5 40% 11 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Stephen Thompson 0 4 of 7 57% 65 of 96 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Belal Muhammad 19 of 32 59% 14 of 27 5 of 5 0 of 0 17 of 29 1 of 1 1 of 2
Stephen Thompson 58 of 95 61% 56 of 92 1 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 10 1 of 1 55 of 84
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Belal Muhammad 10 of 16 62% 8 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 13 1 of 1 1 of 2
Stephen Thompson 44 of 72 61% 42 of 69 1 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 7 1 of 1 41 of 64
2 Belal Muhammad 7 of 11 63% 5 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 10 of 16 62% 10 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 10 of 13
3 Belal Muhammad 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Belal Muhammad vs. Stephen Thompson

Round 1
In this pivotal co-main event, renowned karateka “Wonderboy” Thompson (16-5-1, 11-5-1 UFC) will try to keep his place in the top echelon of the welterweight division. Against him will be Muhammad (19-3, 1 NC; 10-3, 1 NC UFC), who will aim to find the secret of his power. Herb Dean will be the referee for this interesting stylistic clash, and the fighters are happy to touch gloves in a good show of sportsmanship. Thompson is quick to get to his signature style, staying out of range and backing off with kicks to the body and up high. Muhammad eats a hook kick in the face, and he shrugs it off so that he can shoot in for a double. “Wonderboy” stops it from succeeding and stings Muhammad with a left hand, and Muhammad is suddenly in trouble. Thompson spins with a kick that clatters off Muhammad’s dome, and he wears it well and blocks a few strikes that come at him. Thompson jumps forward with a strike, and Muhammad manages to power through and go for a takedown. Grabbing Thompson by his waist as they are both on their seats, they begin to slug it out from close range like a seated version of Frye vs. Takayama. After they continue to trade punches, Thompson walks his way back up using the fence, and he shucks off a standing guillotine try from Muhammad. Tight in the clinch, Thompson rips a few knees up high until Muhammad snags hold of a single to put Thompson down. “Wonderboy” manages to land on a knee so he is not flat down, and he grabs the fence to stand back up. Muhammad grapples him from behind, before turning things around to elevate Thompson and put him down. Muhammad lands on Thompson’s back, and he hunts for a rear-naked choke before flattening Thompson out with strikes. “Remember the Name” rains down punches from this advantageous position, pounding on the side of Thompson’s head while Thompson turtles up. Thompson protects himself from the brunt of the strikes that should not merit a stoppage, and he turns to his side as Muhammad continues to work him over from above. A few punches land to the back of the head, and Muhammad bludgeons Thompson relentlessly until the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 2
The welterweights touch gloves to start off the second round, and Thompson is the immediate aggressor with side kicks to the face. Thompson slings a high kick with his rear leg, and the kick is blocked but still knocks Muhammad back a step. “Wonderboy” springs in with a strike and dances out of the way, and he lands cleanly to ring Muhammad’s bell. Thompson tees off on Muhammad until Muhammad has had enough of the striking, and he closes in to latch on to Thompson and wrench him down to the mat. Thompson works his way back up, only for Muhammad to lift him up and hold his ankle to put Thompson back down flat on the canvas. The Chicago native gets into half guard, where he isolates Thompson’s right arm to set up a kimura. When that does not succeed, Muhammad begins to batter Thompson’s thigh with elbows. Thompson pulls his arm free, only for Muhammad to continue elbowing the same spot. Thompson edges his way to the wall, and he posts on his knee to stand up as Muhammad torques on his arm for a straight armlock or kimura. Thompson appears to pay it no mind, but he is still trapped on the floor with no way up as precious seconds tick off the clock. Muhammad abandons the grip so that he can turn around and get off ground-and-pound, introducing his elbow to Thompson’s face repeatedly. Thompson eats several of these shots but blocks others, and Muhammad hacks at him with elbows until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 3
Muhammad instantly starts the round with a takedown try, and “Wonderboy” cannot stave him off with a few strikes as Muhammad advances relentlessly. Muhammad lifts Thompson’s leg all the way up in the air before putting Thompson down on the ground, and he ties Thompson’s legs up to keep him trapped. With his arm around Thompson’s back, he is able to smack Thompson in the face with short left hands. The former title challenger bursts back upright, and he fights off a subsequent takedown try with a choke attempt from above. Muhammad doggedly pursues another takedown, and he secures it in the center of the mat to put Thompson down at the midpoint of the final round. Muhammad claims half guard, and he calmly controls his opponent with light but effective ground-and-pound that keeps Dean away from standing them up. “Remember the Name” remembers that he can embrace the grind like the best of them, and he does exactly that, passing to side control and working Thompson over with elbows and hammerfists. Muhammad looks to pass to mount, but “Wonderboy” is able to at least keep that moral victory in his pocket as he is getting thoroughly outworked on the ground. Muhammad slashes Thompson with multiple elbows until the final horn ends this grueling match.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (30-27 Muhammad)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (30-27 Muhammad)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (30-27 Muhammad)

The Official Result
Belal Muhammad def. Stephen Thompson via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-26, 30-26)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Angelo picks Belal Muhammad with a full unit at +200. He cites recency bias from Gilbert Burns taking Thompson down at will, and believes Muhammad, a wrestling beast, will employ a grapple-heavy game plan. He thinks Muhammad will win a unanimous decision by taking Thompson down repeatedly. Angelo admits it hurts because he loves Wonderboy, but he sees a clear path for Muhammad.

1 unit on moneyline at +200
"i threw a full unit on bilal muhammad almost immediately"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Stephen Thompson

Big Brady picks Stephen Thompson by decision, citing his striking advantage and reach. He believes Muhammad's takedown accuracy (28%) is not enough to threaten Thompson's takedown defense and get-up game. He acknowledges the smaller cage favors Muhammad but expects Thompson to stuff takedowns and win a convincing decision.

decision
"give me a uh decision win for stephen thompson I don't like below muhammad in this spot"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Stephen Thompson

Cody is confident in Thompson, citing his superior striking and distance management. He notes that Muhammad is a generalist without elite skills, and his wins are against lower-level competition. Cody points to the Leon Edwards fight where Muhammad struggled with a fast, lateral-moving striker. He believes Thompson's takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing and that he will win by decision, though he acknowledges Muhammad's durability and the possibility of a KO.

"I think thompson's going to do a lot of the same thing even though he himself is getting a little bit older he still moves as good as anybody his striking is as good as anyone's"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Daniel Levi picks Belal Muhammad as a +200 underdog. He argues that Stephen Thompson has never won a fight in which he was taken down, citing losses to Woodley, Brown, and Burns. Levi notes that in Thompson's wins over Neal and Luque, those opponents attempted zero takedowns combined. He believes Muhammad's relentless wrestling and pressure will be the key, and that Thompson's age (almost 40) is a factor. Levi expects a gritty, ugly fight where Muhammad grinds out a decision or late stoppage.

Muhammad by decision or late stoppage; under on Thompson's significant strikes
"I'm going with Belal Muhammad to get the biggest win of his career... plus 200 on a guy who I know is gonna fight for my money."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Stephen Thompson

Jacob picks Stephen Thompson, expecting a boring decision win. He believes Thompson's footwork and karate style will allow him to bounce in and out, point-fight, and avoid takedowns. Jacob thinks if Thompson is taken down, he will get right back up. He cites Thompson's fight with Darren Till where only 71 strikes were landed combined, expecting a similar low-volume striking match.

"i think this is a boring boring boring decision win for stephen thompson"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Stephen Thompson

The host picks Thompson by decision, believing his striking and movement will keep Muhammad at bay. He notes that Muhammad is athletically capped and will struggle to get inside. He leans towards the decision prop around even money.

"I am gonna lean more so with the decision around even money than the knockout here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Stephen Thompson

Paul likes Thompson as the rightful favorite, emphasizing that nobody outstrikes Thompson on the feet. He notes Muhammad's wrestling is not elite and Thompson's takedown defense has improved. Paul expects Thompson to win by decision, as Muhammad has shown durability but can be wobbled, as seen in the Edwards fight.

"I like thompson here I think thompson is the rightful favorite um nobody really outstrikes thompson on the feets"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Stephen Thompson

The MMA Guru picks Stephen Thompson to win by 30-27 decision. He thinks Thompson's striking and takedown defense will be too much for Muhammad. He notes Muhammad struggles to get takedowns against top-level opponents and Thompson stuffed Burns' takedowns. He expects Thompson to out-strike Muhammad easily, though he jokes Thompson is too nice to finish.

"gotta go with stephen thompson here"
Demian Maia - Fight History
LOSS vs Belal Muhammad
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · Jun 12, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Belal Muhammad 0 21 of 53 39% 23 of 55 1 of 21 4% 0 0 4:14
Demian Maia 0 45 of 127 35% 92 of 177 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Belal Muhammad 0 2 of 5 40% 4 of 7 1 of 11 9% 0 0 2:30
Demian Maia 0 5 of 21 23% 10 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Belal Muhammad 0 7 of 19 36% 7 of 19 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:46
Demian Maia 0 19 of 47 40% 34 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Belal Muhammad 0 12 of 29 41% 12 of 29 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:58
Demian Maia 0 21 of 59 35% 48 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Belal Muhammad 21 of 53 39% 21 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0 20 of 52 1 of 1 0 of 0
Demian Maia 45 of 127 35% 38 of 119 3 of 4 4 of 4 43 of 123 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Belal Muhammad 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 5 of 21 23% 5 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Belal Muhammad 7 of 19 36% 7 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 7 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 19 of 47 40% 14 of 41 1 of 2 4 of 4 18 of 45 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Belal Muhammad 12 of 29 41% 12 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0 11 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
Demian Maia 21 of 59 35% 19 of 57 2 of 2 0 of 0 20 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Demian Maia vs. Belal Muhammad

Round 1
This next match at welterweight is a grappler’s delight, as the legendary submission specialist Maia (28-10, 22-10 UFC) will try to become the first man to tap out the durable Muhammad (18-3, 1 NC; 9-3 UFC). Enjoying this fight with the best seat in the house is referee Jason Herzog, and the two have nothing but respect for one another and touch gloves. Muhammad reaches out with several punches, and the Brazilian is right there to greet him with punches. Maia eats a few on the chin and shoots in low for a takedown, but it gets stuffed with ease. Maia comes out with a solid right hand that surprises Muhammad, and he uses this to pursue a single from afar. The grappling legend keeps the left leg elevated as he continues to pursue it, but he has to abandon it when Muhammad sprawls against the fence properly. Maia goes back after the submission, and he rips Muhammad’s knee out from beneath him to secure the takedown. Muhammad’s eyes are wide as he is surprised that this happened to him, and he walks up to his feet to stand back up. Muhammad lifts his leg all the way in the air to break the grip, and he backs away to get his feet from beneath him. Muhammad answers with a solid right hand, and he pushes away a leaping takedown attempt from Maia shortly thereafter. Muhammad has his leg grabbed again, and he hops back to the fence to keep his balance. Maia eats an elbow as he pursues the single, but Muhammad is able to put his leg down for a moment and pull it back. Maia backs away and evades the punches that come his way, but a left hand finds its home on his chin. A stiff jab from Muhammad backs Maia off, and Maia fakes a takedown to draw out a reaction. Maia puts another attempt on Muhammad with the single, and he lifts the leg up high to take Muhammad down but cannot get it. Muhammad hops to and fro with his back on the wire, and Maia sticks to him like glue as he is intent on putting Muhammad on his back. Muhammad is able to put his leg down to the ground again, and he uses the other to sling a head kick that gets blocked right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Maia
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Maia
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Maia

Round 2
There is a quick glove touch to start off the round, and Maia follows it with a left hand. Muhammad kicks the lead leg and hops back before Maia can snatch it up. The American gets off a few jabs here and there as he tries to find his range and keep a safe distance, timing uppercut feints and marking up Maia’s nose with strikes. Maia lunges forward with a looping left hand that hits nothing but air, and there is a lengthy stalemate as they look for angles. Maia drops down for a low single, and Muhammad sticks him with punches from far out. Maia turns a punch to a takedown attempt in the center of the cage, and Muhammad sprawls and stops it from happening. Muhammad makes him pay with a right hand after breaking up the attempt, and he swats away a few half-hearted punches from the Brazilian. Maia pursues another takedown, and Muhammad jumps far away to get out of harm’s way. Muhammad stings Maia with crisp punch combinations, and he hurts Maia with a right hand as he is feeling more comfortable to let his hands go. Muhammad paws out several left hands to break up Maia’s forward movement, and he kicks the lead leg hard. Maia tries to take him down, but his attempts are more labored and Muhammad sees it coming from a mile away. “Remember the Name” makes Maia remember his fists as he introduces them to Maia’s chin a few times, until Maia charges in for a desperate single leg takedown. When the Brazilian lifts the leg up, Muhammad keeps his balance and stays upright. When Maia tries for one last takedown, Muhammad defends with elbows on the side of the head until time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 3
There is one final touch of gloves for the last round, and Muhammad is more comfortable in the center of the cage as he jabs his way out. Maia gets one back, but Muhammad triples up on jabs. Maia dives for a takedown, and Muhammad springs out of danger without much concern. Muhammad gets off a head kick that still does damage even though it is fully blocked, and a right hand hurts the 43-year-old. Maia wings a left hand, but Muhammad’s strikes are more accurate and quicker. There is another head kick from Muhammad, and when it gets blocked, the Roufusport product sticks Maia with a jab. Maia shoots low for a single, and Muhammad does not seem concerned as he stops it once more. Muhammad jabs and continues to redden Maia’s face up, and a clubbing left hand frustrates Maia. Muhammad staves off a feeble single so that he can chain punches together, and he tees off on the fading Brazilian with combinations. Maia can do little but flirt with takedowns, and Muhammad drills him with a shovel uppercut but gets caught with an overhand left. Muhammad pulls his leg back before it gets snagged, and Maia telegraphs these shots every time and does not vary his approach. Muhammad aims a head kick at him, but it too is blocked. Maia crashes forward with a single, and “Remember the Name” posts a stellar takedown defense rate when he stops that one from succeeding. Muhammad protects his leg when Maia latches on to it, punching the Brazilian in the side of the head as Maia lumbers towards him. Muhammad is forced to defend single after single, and Maia lifts the leg but cannot ground him. The gritty fight comes to an end in this position.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (29-28 Muhammad)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (29-28 Muhammad)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (29-28 Muhammad)

The Official Result
Belal Muhammad def. Demian Maia via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 8, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Big Brady picks Belal Muhammad, citing his youth, cardio, and volume advantage. He is concerned about Muhammad's untested takedown defense against a grappler like Maia, but believes Maia's age (43) will be a factor. He expects Muhammad to win a decision, possibly 29-28 or 30-27.

Muhammad by decision
"i'm gonna take muhammad um i just don't feel all that great about it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Demian Maia

Cody sees this as a dog or pass situation. He notes Maia's age and slow striking but believes if Maia gets takedowns, he can submit Muhammad. He is interested in a small sprinkle on Maia by submission at +400, as Maia has a history of taking down better wrestlers.

Maia by submission (+400)
"i'm interested in maya by sub"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Daniel Levi picks Belal Muhammad, stating that no 43-year-old is beating him. He emphasizes Muhammad's pace and cardio, and that Maia's blueprint has been exposed. He expects Muhammad to outwork Maia, especially in later rounds, and predicts a dominant decision. He calls Muhammad the most sure thing among the favorites.

by decision (30-26 or 29-27)
"no 43 year old is beating balaam muhammad in a fight period"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2021 (fight day)
Demian Maia

Maia's jiu-jitsu is a level above anyone Muhammad has faced. Muhammad is a jack-of-all-trades but lacks a finishing threat, while Maia can latch on and submit him. Muhammad's takedown defense hasn't been tested by a grappler of Maia's caliber. Maia's age and cardio are concerns, but he should find a submission in the early rounds.

Maia by submission (+400), Maia by second-round submission
"I'm going to go with Demian Maia and I'm going to take him to win this fight via submission... sprinkle that sub prop because I do think it could be lively here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul agrees it's a dog or pass situation. He notes Maia's age and the fact that Muhammad has never faced a wrestler, but he doesn't have a strong lean either way. He is not interested in laying the wood on Muhammad at -230.

"i think it's a dog or pass situation regardless"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

The MMA Guru picks Belal Muhammad, believing Maia is past his prime with lowered testosterone. He notes Muhammad's cardio, takedown defense, and recent experience against Leon Edwards. He expects Muhammad to lose the first round to Maia's grappling but come back in rounds 2 and 3 with volume, winning a 29-28 decision.

"i'm going with balaam muhammad okay i really believe he wins this one"
LOSS vs Gilbert Burns
TKO (punches) R1 2:34 · UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · Mar 14, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gilbert Burns 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:24
Demian Maia 1 13 of 16 81% 14 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gilbert Burns 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:24
Demian Maia 1 13 of 16 81% 14 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gilbert Burns 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 13 of 16 81% 10 of 13 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gilbert Burns 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 13 of 16 81% 10 of 13 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 9
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Demian Maia vs. Gilbert Burns

Round 1
In the only bout of the evening between two fighters representing Brazil, two of the most highly decorated submission artists in the welterweight division face off when Maia (28-9, 22-9 UFC) tests his skills against Burns (17-3, 10-3 UFC). Together, the two have submitted a healthy 22 opponents across their 45 victories, and referee Osiris Maia will be the third Brazilian in the cage. They race to the center of the Octagon, and Maia sticks out a jab but it is Burns that throws something of note first, in the form of a right hand that misses. Burns lands a leg kick, while Maia scores a left hook. Burns scores two more kicks, and Maia comes back with that same left. Maia is pushing the pace in Burns, with a left hand that does little more than set up a single leg takedown. Burns nearly welcomes the takedown, fishing for a heel hook before abandoning it to stand up. The former title challenger keeps on him, nearly taking Burns’ back while pushing him against the fence and threatening with another takedown. As Burns tries to roll, Maia fishes for a rear-naked choke, and gets a hook in as Burns fights off the arm that wraps around his throat.
Burns slips out the back door and stands back up before anything comes from it, and blasts Maia with a monster left hook. Maia crumples to the canvas, and Burns celebrates by throwing his arms in the air.
He looks to the referee to call the fight, but none come, so Burns chases after him and swarms him with punches until the ref stops the action. This is an enormous win for Burns, who smashes a top-five opponent with style points, and immediately stakes his claim as an elite fighter in the division.

The Official Result
Gilbert Burns def. Demian Maia R1 2:34 via TKO (Punches)
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Daniel picks Burns, citing his power and youth. He thinks Maia's stand-up is a liability and that Burns can hurt him. He notes Burns has the jiu-jitsu to avoid submissions and predicts a decision win for Burns.

"i'ma go with Gilbert burns imma go with the younger guy and I think that uh he hurts my somewhere along the way and one's a decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

The host picks Gilbert Burns over Demian Maia. He notes that Maia has not been submitting opponents recently, as seen in his fight with Anthony Rocco Martin. Burns is a three-time BJJ world champion and will be able to stay out of submissions. He expects Burns to win by third-round TKO, as Maia fades in later rounds due to age and weight cut. He calls Burns an underdog but believes he has this fight in the bag.

third round TKO, underdog
"Gilbert burns by TKO I'm calling it as an underdog I think he's got this one in the bag"
WIN vs Ben Askren
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 3:54 · UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · Oct 26, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Demian Maia 0 69 of 122 56% 84 of 137 0 of 0 --- 1 2 1:29
Ben Askren 0 63 of 127 49% 102 of 168 4 of 7 57% 0 1 1:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Demian Maia 0 28 of 54 51% 31 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ben Askren 0 27 of 45 60% 44 of 62 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:46
2 Demian Maia 0 23 of 44 52% 31 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:38
Ben Askren 0 22 of 53 41% 31 of 62 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:35
3 Demian Maia 0 18 of 24 75% 22 of 28 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:51
Ben Askren 0 14 of 29 48% 27 of 44 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Demian Maia 69 of 122 56% 44 of 88 25 of 34 0 of 0 49 of 99 17 of 20 3 of 3
Ben Askren 63 of 127 49% 54 of 116 4 of 6 5 of 5 46 of 108 11 of 13 6 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Demian Maia 28 of 54 51% 16 of 36 12 of 18 0 of 0 18 of 41 10 of 13 0 of 0
Ben Askren 27 of 45 60% 21 of 39 2 of 2 4 of 4 17 of 35 8 of 8 2 of 2
2 Demian Maia 23 of 44 52% 15 of 33 8 of 11 0 of 0 19 of 40 3 of 3 1 of 1
Ben Askren 22 of 53 41% 21 of 50 0 of 2 1 of 1 18 of 47 2 of 4 2 of 2
3 Demian Maia 18 of 24 75% 13 of 19 5 of 5 0 of 0 12 of 18 4 of 4 2 of 2
Ben Askren 14 of 29 48% 12 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 26 1 of 1 2 of 2
Decision (majority) (29–28, 29–28, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. dos Santos · Jun 29, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Demian Maia 0 3 of 12 25% 74 of 86 3 of 9 33% 0 1 6:02
Anthony Rocco Martin 0 22 of 95 23% 36 of 109 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Demian Maia 0 2 of 5 40% 31 of 34 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:42
Anthony Rocco Martin 0 3 of 15 20% 9 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
2 Demian Maia 0 0 of 3 0% 42 of 48 2 of 5 40% 0 1 3:20
Anthony Rocco Martin 0 3 of 16 18% 7 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
3 Demian Maia 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Anthony Rocco Martin 0 16 of 64 25% 20 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Demian Maia 3 of 12 25% 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
Anthony Rocco Martin 22 of 95 23% 13 of 81 7 of 12 2 of 2 16 of 86 1 of 1 5 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Demian Maia 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1
Anthony Rocco Martin 3 of 15 20% 2 of 12 0 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Demian Maia 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Rocco Martin 3 of 16 18% 3 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Demian Maia 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Rocco Martin 16 of 64 25% 8 of 53 7 of 10 1 of 1 11 of 56 0 of 0 5 of 8
WIN vs Lyman Good
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:38 · UFC Fight Night: Assunção vs. Moraes 2 · Feb 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Demian Maia 0 0 of 1 0% 8 of 9 2 of 4 50% 2 0 2:12
Lyman Good 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Demian Maia 0 0 of 1 0% 8 of 9 2 of 4 50% 2 0 2:12
Lyman Good 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Demian Maia 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lyman Good 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Demian Maia 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lyman Good 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Kamaru Usman
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman · May 19, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kamaru Usman 0 27 of 87 31% 33 of 94 0 of 15 0% 0 0 2:01
Demian Maia 1 66 of 209 31% 97 of 244 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kamaru Usman 0 5 of 12 41% 10 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:01
Demian Maia 0 12 of 29 41% 13 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kamaru Usman 0 7 of 18 38% 8 of 20 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Demian Maia 0 12 of 47 25% 16 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:37
3 Kamaru Usman 0 4 of 25 16% 4 of 25 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Demian Maia 0 13 of 53 24% 16 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
4 Kamaru Usman 0 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Demian Maia 1 16 of 42 38% 32 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:31
5 Kamaru Usman 0 7 of 23 30% 7 of 23 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Demian Maia 0 13 of 38 34% 20 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kamaru Usman 27 of 87 31% 26 of 85 1 of 2 0 of 0 25 of 85 1 of 1 1 of 1
Demian Maia 66 of 209 31% 49 of 181 4 of 12 13 of 16 55 of 187 1 of 5 10 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kamaru Usman 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 12 of 29 41% 6 of 22 0 of 1 6 of 6 12 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Kamaru Usman 7 of 18 38% 7 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
Demian Maia 12 of 47 25% 9 of 43 1 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 43 1 of 3 1 of 1
3 Kamaru Usman 4 of 25 16% 4 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 13 of 53 24% 9 of 44 2 of 5 2 of 4 13 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 2
4 Kamaru Usman 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 16 of 42 38% 14 of 38 0 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 33 0 of 0 6 of 9
5 Kamaru Usman 7 of 23 30% 6 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 22 0 of 0 1 of 1
Demian Maia 13 of 38 34% 11 of 34 1 of 2 1 of 2 10 of 31 0 of 2 3 of 5
LOSS vs Colby Covington
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · Oct 28, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Colby Covington 0 53 of 151 35% 59 of 157 0 of 13 0% 0 0 0:02
Demian Maia 0 88 of 317 27% 121 of 351 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Colby Covington 0 29 of 66 43% 31 of 68 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Demian Maia 0 37 of 125 29% 44 of 132 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
2 Colby Covington 0 11 of 38 28% 12 of 39 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:00
Demian Maia 0 22 of 83 26% 25 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
3 Colby Covington 0 13 of 47 27% 16 of 50 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:00
Demian Maia 0 29 of 109 26% 52 of 133 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Colby Covington 53 of 151 35% 53 of 149 0 of 1 0 of 1 51 of 148 2 of 3 0 of 0
Demian Maia 88 of 317 27% 65 of 286 1 of 4 22 of 27 81 of 304 4 of 8 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Colby Covington 29 of 66 43% 29 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0 29 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 37 of 125 29% 18 of 99 1 of 4 18 of 22 37 of 125 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Colby Covington 11 of 38 28% 11 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 1 11 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
Demian Maia 22 of 83 26% 20 of 80 0 of 0 2 of 3 20 of 77 2 of 5 0 of 1
3 Colby Covington 13 of 47 27% 13 of 46 0 of 1 0 of 0 11 of 45 2 of 2 0 of 0
Demian Maia 29 of 109 26% 27 of 107 0 of 0 2 of 2 24 of 102 2 of 3 3 of 4
LOSS vs Tyron Woodley
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · Jul 29, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyron Woodley 1 57 of 153 37% 57 of 153 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Demian Maia 0 28 of 89 31% 29 of 90 0 of 21 0% 0 0 0:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyron Woodley 0 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Demian Maia 0 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:38
2 Tyron Woodley 1 14 of 29 48% 14 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Demian Maia 0 4 of 14 28% 4 of 14 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Tyron Woodley 0 12 of 41 29% 12 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Demian Maia 0 8 of 24 33% 8 of 24 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Tyron Woodley 0 15 of 39 38% 15 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Demian Maia 0 5 of 25 20% 5 of 25 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:11
5 Tyron Woodley 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Demian Maia 0 8 of 20 40% 9 of 21 0 of 7 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyron Woodley 57 of 153 37% 40 of 131 13 of 18 4 of 4 56 of 152 1 of 1 0 of 0
Demian Maia 28 of 89 31% 23 of 83 2 of 3 3 of 3 26 of 87 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyron Woodley 6 of 18 33% 5 of 16 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tyron Woodley 14 of 29 48% 9 of 24 3 of 3 2 of 2 14 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 4 of 14 28% 4 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Tyron Woodley 12 of 41 29% 9 of 37 1 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 8 of 24 33% 6 of 22 0 of 0 2 of 2 8 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Tyron Woodley 15 of 39 38% 11 of 32 4 of 7 0 of 0 15 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 5 of 25 20% 4 of 23 0 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Tyron Woodley 10 of 26 38% 6 of 22 4 of 4 0 of 0 9 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Demian Maia 8 of 20 40% 6 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
Expert Picks (6)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 8, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Big Brady picks Belal Muhammad, citing his youth, cardio, and volume advantage. He is concerned about Muhammad's untested takedown defense against a grappler like Maia, but believes Maia's age (43) will be a factor. He expects Muhammad to win a decision, possibly 29-28 or 30-27.

Muhammad by decision
"i'm gonna take muhammad um i just don't feel all that great about it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Demian Maia

Cody sees this as a dog or pass situation. He notes Maia's age and slow striking but believes if Maia gets takedowns, he can submit Muhammad. He is interested in a small sprinkle on Maia by submission at +400, as Maia has a history of taking down better wrestlers.

Maia by submission (+400)
"i'm interested in maya by sub"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Daniel Levi picks Belal Muhammad, stating that no 43-year-old is beating him. He emphasizes Muhammad's pace and cardio, and that Maia's blueprint has been exposed. He expects Muhammad to outwork Maia, especially in later rounds, and predicts a dominant decision. He calls Muhammad the most sure thing among the favorites.

by decision (30-26 or 29-27)
"no 43 year old is beating balaam muhammad in a fight period"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2021 (fight day)
Demian Maia

Maia's jiu-jitsu is a level above anyone Muhammad has faced. Muhammad is a jack-of-all-trades but lacks a finishing threat, while Maia can latch on and submit him. Muhammad's takedown defense hasn't been tested by a grappler of Maia's caliber. Maia's age and cardio are concerns, but he should find a submission in the early rounds.

Maia by submission (+400), Maia by second-round submission
"I'm going to go with Demian Maia and I'm going to take him to win this fight via submission... sprinkle that sub prop because I do think it could be lively here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

Paul agrees it's a dog or pass situation. He notes Maia's age and the fact that Muhammad has never faced a wrestler, but he doesn't have a strong lean either way. He is not interested in laying the wood on Muhammad at -230.

"i think it's a dog or pass situation regardless"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

The MMA Guru picks Belal Muhammad, believing Maia is past his prime with lowered testosterone. He notes Muhammad's cardio, takedown defense, and recent experience against Leon Edwards. He expects Muhammad to lose the first round to Maia's grappling but come back in rounds 2 and 3 with volume, winning a 29-28 decision.

"i'm going with balaam muhammad okay i really believe he wins this one"