UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Aug 07, 2021 · Women's Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane Next Fight
Age 30
Height 5' 5"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 36
Height 5' 5"
Reach 64.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Melissa Gatto
3.47 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
2.67 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
1.77 TD Avg
27.0% TD Acc.
58.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Victoria Leonardo
3.22 SLpM
38.0% Str. Acc.
4.81 SApM
47.0% Str. Def.
1.57 TD Avg
27.0% TD Acc.
71.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Melissa Gatto
Moneyline
Caesars -110
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1000
Submission
FanDuel +230
Decision
BetMGM +475
Victoria Leonardo
Moneyline
FanDuel +102
KO/TKO
FanDuel +550
Submission
FanDuel +750
Decision
FanDuel +230
Melissa Gatto - Fight History
LOSS vs Dione Barbosa
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · Apr 04, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dione Barbosa 0 30 of 67 44% 108 of 154 3 of 6 50% 1 1 6:06
Melissa Gatto 0 33 of 67 49% 64 of 109 3 of 12 25% 0 1 4:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dione Barbosa 0 16 of 37 43% 35 of 58 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:15
Melissa Gatto 0 21 of 48 43% 27 of 59 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:11
2 Dione Barbosa 0 9 of 20 45% 34 of 51 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:20
Melissa Gatto 0 5 of 7 71% 23 of 30 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:55
3 Dione Barbosa 0 5 of 10 50% 39 of 45 1 of 1 100% 1 1 2:31
Melissa Gatto 0 7 of 12 58% 14 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dione Barbosa 30 of 67 44% 19 of 53 9 of 12 2 of 2 16 of 49 5 of 7 9 of 11
Melissa Gatto 33 of 67 49% 14 of 40 9 of 15 10 of 12 30 of 62 2 of 4 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dione Barbosa 16 of 37 43% 12 of 31 2 of 4 2 of 2 12 of 30 3 of 5 1 of 2
Melissa Gatto 21 of 48 43% 7 of 26 7 of 13 7 of 9 20 of 45 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Dione Barbosa 9 of 20 45% 6 of 17 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 14 2 of 2 3 of 4
Melissa Gatto 5 of 7 71% 2 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Dione Barbosa 5 of 10 50% 1 of 5 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 5
Melissa Gatto 7 of 12 58% 5 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dione Barbosa vs. Melissa Gatto
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Barbosa (-145); Gatto (+125)

Round 1
The night presses on as a pair of women’s flyweights meet in hopes of keeping or lifting their respective promotional record above .500. Barbosa (8-4, 2-2 UFC) would like a victory to elevate it over that midpoint mark, while bantamweight part-timer Gatto (9-2-2, 3-2 UFC) is looking for success back in her natural weight class. Referee Chris Tognoni draws the charge for this preliminary contest, one that does not open with a glove touch.
The ladies measure one another in the early going, testing out their jabs while not committing to much else. Gatto opens up a bit more with her overhand right, and when she finally scores one, she has to back off when a one-two pinpoints her nose. Gatto slings her right hand down the pipe, faking a takedown shot and ultimately walk into a spinning back kick counter. Barbosa gets her attention with a left hand after the kick connects, and she is greeted with a stern right hand. Barbosa shakes it off and offers a low kick followed by two punches, and the two start trading hands in a brief exchange with Barbosa landing at the beginning and ending. Gatto works her way behind her right hand, and she shoots in for takedown that is shut down before it can come close to materializing.
Barbosa bullies the taller woman to the wall, pressing her shoulder tightly before kneeing her a couple times to the stomach. Barbosa trips Gatto up to drag her to the floor, and Gatto springs back up with the fencing behind her. Barbosa stomps Gatto’s toes, and Gatto breaks off with a knee. Gatto takes a punch and times the spin she sees coming to grab Barbosa from behind and wrangle her to the mat. Gatto advances to an awkward position that places her in leglock danger, but she is close to securing the mount position. Barbosa hacks with elbows off her back, and she uses butterfly hooks to stave Gatto from claiming a dominant posture. Gatto lowers herself down maintain control, and Barbosa’s leg slides up an around to snatch up an armbar. Gatto leans to her side to free the pressure on her limb, and she drills Barbosa with a number of hammerfists as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gatto
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gatto
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gatto

Round 2
Gatto assumes control of the center of the cage to get going first, pushing out her jab a few times before snatching up a Barbosa low kick to trip her up and take her to the mat. Barbosa flips her all the way over to wind up on top, and Gatto is stuck flat on her back. Gatto keeps a high guard when Barbosa postures up, but Barbosa does not fall into a trap and stands back up. Gatto turns to her knees to stand back up, and Barbosa blasts her with an illegal soccer kick to the neck and chin that knocks Gatto completely out. Barbosa walks off celebrating, as if she thinks that she has won the fight, while Gatto is splayed out lifelessly in an eerie scene reminiscent of Maycee Barber getting knocked out last week. As a medical professional or two rush in to tend to Gatto, she comes to and has to be told what happened. The replay official flips the light to signal that they are going to use instant replay to review the footage, but it appeared that Gatto’s knee was down right before she took the soccer kick that rendered her unconscious. Tognoni discusses his options with the officiating team, and he deducts one point from Barbosa for the foul. Shockingly, the fight somehow continues, even though Gatto was knocked unconscious from the strike. This is complete nonsense. This fight should be over, period. What happened to fighter safety being the primary concern of officials? Gatto, who apparently is back with her wits again, runs forward at the restart to take the fight down. Barbosa is grounded for a time before fighting her way back up, and she turns the tables to take Gatto down.
Gatto works her way up after absorbing some hammerfists, and she breaks out of the clinch to take a spinning back fist on the chin. Gatto shakes it out and tackles Barbosa to the floor. Thankfully, with Gatto on top, it means she is not currently absorbing much brain trauma after being knocked out from the illegal soccer kick that only resulted in a single point being deducted. Barbosa fights off her back with a high guard in hopes of catching Gatto in something, and she grips hold of a triangle armbar but is punched out of it. The round somehow ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 9-9
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 9-9
Tyler Treese scores the round: 9-9

Round 3
Between rounds, it is explained that the officials and medical staff determined Gatto was able to continue a fistfight despite already getting knocked all the way out. What are rules anymore? It does not take long for the ladies to go for grappling, and Barbosa succeeds in taking Gatto to the mat. Gatto keeps her left leg wrapped on the side in hopes of setting something up, and Barbosa ignores it and starts elbowing her in the side. Gatto turns to her side with a two-on-one wrist control of Barbosa, who counters her by rolling all the way over to snatch up an armbar.
Gatto turns over to stack Barboza up, squeezing her elbow and forearm on the throat while exerting as much pressure down as she can to stifle the submission. Barbosa cannot hold the submission much longer as she is getting squished, and Gatto breaks out of it and busts her in the chops with a strong right hand. Barbosa sits up and flips her opponent over to her back, and she starts hunting for a leglock. Gatto sits up to stop it, and she tries to muscle Barbosa over and use a kimura grip to reverse position. She succeeds in turning Barbosa over and keeps control of the limb, and she steps over the body with her rear leg to establish herself in top control. As the ladies roll around on the mat looking for positional advantages, Gatto snags hold of the left arm of her opponent to hunt for her own armbar. Barbosa elbows Gatto on the back of the calf, and this fight somehow makes it 15 minutes. This is not a good day for the Nevada State Athletic Commission. A draw may be in play, but that depends on the scoring of the first round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa (28-28)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa (28-28)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa (28-28)

The Official Result
Dione Barbosa def. Melissa Gatto via Majority Decision (28-28, 29-27, 29-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 29, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Dione Barbosa

Angelo picks Dione Barbosa, citing her superior takedown ability as a judoka. He notes that Melissa Gatto has poor takedowns and that Barbosa can close the distance, take her down, and control on top. He worries about potential judging bias similar to Barbosa's last loss but believes Barbosa will win a close decision.

"Dion Barbosa is going to be the pick. We probably end up in a 2928 type situation."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Big Brady picks Melissa Gatto as a slight underdog. He notes Barbosa has power and can get takedowns early, but fades as the fight goes on. He likes Gatto's cardio, volume, and kicks, and expects her to take over in later rounds. He predicts a close decision win for Gatto.

Gatto by decision
"I'll take Gatto here. I like the cardio, I like the kicks, I like the volume."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Cody picks Gatto, citing her youth, improved skills, and ability to scramble and strike. He expects her to win a decision, as Barbosa's grappling-heavy style may not score well.

"It's got by decision for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Apr 3, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Dione Barbosa

Connor leans toward Barbosa, agreeing that she is more disciplined. He notes that Gatto's footwork is worse and she tends to collapse when pressured, leading her to wrestle. Barbosa is as big as Gatto and a better grappler, which should neutralize Gatto's advantages.

Barbosa opened +105, now -127; Gatto opened -125, now +107.
"Barboza actually has some a little bit of boxing footwork... Gatto just doesn't know how to like keep herself lined up."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

James leans toward Melissa Gatto as the underdog, citing her striking kicks and cardio advantage, while noting Barbosa's tendency to tire. He admits he hasn't done tape study and is unsure about the grappling dynamics. He predicts a decision win for Gatto but emphasizes low confidence and the need for further analysis.

"I'll say Melissa Gate. She's the underdog. I lean to the underdog in a fight like this where I think it's very close."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

The host picks Gatto as a dog, citing her damage-based striking and grappling advantage. He notes Barbosa's recent loss where control wasn't enough, and trusts Gatto's volume and damage to win on the scorecards despite a two-year layoff. He sees a good stylistic matchup for Gatto.

"I feel like Gateau is the perfect dog to start off this card."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Paul leans towards Gatto, noting her two-year layoff may have helped her improve. He expects her to win a close decision due to her striking and scrambling.

"I do have Melissa God. I think Melissa is a decent fighter."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Dione Barbosa

The MMA Guru picks Dione Barbosa but seems hesitant, acknowledging that her win over Diana Belbita isn't impressive. He notes that Melissa Gatto has a body kick KO win but lost to Tracy Cortez. He thinks Barbosa is slightly more well-rounded but doesn't sound fully convinced.

"I think she'll win this one, though. I think she'll beat Melissa Gatto, okay? Don't grill me on it."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Apr 3, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Dione Barbosa

Zane leans toward Barbosa, noting she is more disciplined and has better footwork. He thinks Gatto has good tools but doesn't stick to them, and tends to win when opponents make catastrophic mistakes. Barbosa's boxing footwork and grappling should allow her to keep the fight in her favor.

Barbosa opened +105, now -127; Gatto opened -125, now +107.
"I'm tempted to pick Barboza. I think she's a little more... she's just a more disciplined fighter."
WIN vs Tamires Vidal
TKO (punch to the body) R3 0:37 · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · May 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Melissa Gatto 0 15 of 29 51% 50 of 66 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:53
Tamires Vidal 0 30 of 52 57% 120 of 163 2 of 2 100% 1 0 6:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Melissa Gatto 0 3 of 3 100% 32 of 34 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Tamires Vidal 0 6 of 9 66% 72 of 85 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:33
2 Melissa Gatto 0 11 of 20 55% 17 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:53
Tamires Vidal 0 21 of 35 60% 45 of 70 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:25
3 Melissa Gatto 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tamires Vidal 0 3 of 8 37% 3 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Melissa Gatto 15 of 29 51% 7 of 21 2 of 2 6 of 6 14 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tamires Vidal 30 of 52 57% 13 of 30 16 of 20 1 of 2 22 of 40 1 of 5 7 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Melissa Gatto 3 of 3 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tamires Vidal 6 of 9 66% 4 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
2 Melissa Gatto 11 of 20 55% 5 of 14 2 of 2 4 of 4 10 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tamires Vidal 21 of 35 60% 9 of 21 11 of 12 1 of 2 15 of 25 1 of 5 5 of 5
3 Melissa Gatto 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tamires Vidal 3 of 8 37% 0 of 2 3 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Tamires Vidal

Angelo is shocked that Melissa Gatto is the biggest favorite on the card at -820 despite being on a two-fight losing streak, moving up in weight, and having poor takedown accuracy (0 for 7 in her last fight). He believes Tamires Vidal is big, strong, and has a grappling advantage. He plans to bet on Vidal, watching the line movement to decide when to place the bet.

bet on Vidal (timing based on line movement)
"I already thought vial was going to win let alone at these odds I'm going to continue to watch this"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Cody views this as a clear bounceback fight for Gatto, who has lost two close decisions to top competition. He notes Vidal has massive limitations in every area: poor footwork, no head movement, low volume, and no power. Gatto is stronger, more technical, and a better wrestler. Cody believes Gatto will dominate on the ground and get back in the win column.

"Gatto is way strong at 125 that won't finish at 135 she's a way more polished way more powerful way more technical Striker than Vidal."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Vidal is reckless with wide hooks and was out-grinded in her last fight. Gatto is the toughest opponent Vidal has faced and should provide a ton of resistance. Expects Gatto to pressure Vidal, use the clinch, take her down, and eventually find a finish. The line should be closer to -400 or -500.

Inside the distance for Gatto.
"I think the minus 300 on Melissa got to is more than worthy here as I think that she should be closer to minus 400 maybe evenus 500"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Paul sees Gatto as much more powerful and technical than Vidal. He notes Vidal's only UFC win came via flying knee against a low-level opponent, and she was dominated by Montserrat Ruiz. Paul expects Gatto to manhandle Vidal with her grappling and physicality, despite moving up a weight class.

"It's goto for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

The MMA Guru picks Melissa Gatto over Tamires Vidal, despite going against his rule of picking 'thems' in women's MMA. He notes that Gatto had a close fight with Tracy Cortez and that Vidal was taken down three times by a smaller opponent in her last fight. He expects Gatto to use her reach and grappling to control Vidal and win by decision.

"I'm going to go with Melissa GTO here I think she'll be able to take down um tamires vdal"
LOSS vs Ariane da Silva
Decision (split) (28–29, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Jul 01, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ariane da Silva 0 66 of 149 44% 81 of 166 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:47
Melissa Gatto 0 85 of 186 45% 100 of 201 0 of 7 0% 0 0 2:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ariane da Silva 0 16 of 49 32% 18 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Melissa Gatto 0 28 of 53 52% 28 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
2 Ariane da Silva 0 26 of 46 56% 39 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:12
Melissa Gatto 0 33 of 66 50% 45 of 78 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:16
3 Ariane da Silva 0 24 of 54 44% 24 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Melissa Gatto 0 24 of 67 35% 27 of 70 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ariane da Silva 66 of 149 44% 28 of 101 27 of 36 11 of 12 53 of 131 12 of 15 1 of 3
Melissa Gatto 85 of 186 45% 39 of 117 34 of 50 12 of 19 70 of 165 15 of 21 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ariane da Silva 16 of 49 32% 3 of 30 9 of 15 4 of 4 14 of 45 2 of 4 0 of 0
Melissa Gatto 28 of 53 52% 13 of 31 10 of 15 5 of 7 25 of 49 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Ariane da Silva 26 of 46 56% 10 of 27 12 of 14 4 of 5 18 of 37 8 of 9 0 of 0
Melissa Gatto 33 of 66 50% 11 of 37 17 of 21 5 of 8 23 of 52 10 of 14 0 of 0
3 Ariane da Silva 24 of 54 44% 15 of 44 6 of 7 3 of 3 21 of 49 2 of 2 1 of 3
Melissa Gatto 24 of 67 35% 15 of 49 7 of 14 2 of 4 22 of 64 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 25, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Angelo picks Ariane Lipski (da Silva) based on her last performance against JJ Aldrich, where her hands and wrestling looked great. He acknowledges the logical pick is Melissa Gatto due to Lipski's history of being outgrappled, but he goes against logic. He suggests a plus 3.5 point buy on the scorecard for Lipski as a safer bet.

plus 3.5 points on judges scorecard (potential bet)
"I'm going to go against the logic I'm going to pick lipsky like she looked so good against JJ Aldridge"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Big Brady picks Melissa Gatto to win by first-round submission. He notes Gatto has improved significantly, with better striking and takedown defense, and has power. He points out that Ariane da Silva (Lipski) has been dominated on the ground by fighters like Montana De La Rosa and Antonina Shevchenko, and Gatto's top game is dangerous. He expects Gatto to get on top and finish early.

first round submission
"give me got her to win this fight by first round I'll say sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Cody sees Lipski as a live underdog. He notes Gatto's low volume (17 significant strikes in nearly 3 rounds against Eubanks) and poor defensive wrestling. Lipski showed improved wrestling at ATT and has high volume (101 significant strikes against Aldrich). Cody thinks if Lipski can stuff takedowns, she wins the striking battle. He also notes Lipski is only 29 and improving.

"I too will take lip ski all right"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Daniel confidently picks Gatto, citing her superior heart, durability, and grappling. He notes Lipski's history of quitting when pressured and her poor defensive grappling, while Gatto showed toughness against Tracy Cortez, reversing positions and landing takedowns. He believes Gatto's chin and submission threat are key, and that Lipski's recent win over JJ Aldrich is overrated. However, he missed the opening line (-150) and won't bet at -230, but expects Gatto to win.

missed the line at -150; Gatto minus 230
"I definitely favorite gato here it's just you know all you guys that came in on that minus 150. that minus 170. you all did your job"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Paul is tempted by the CF dog model. He notes Lipski's last performance against Aldrich was impressive and that Gatto's wins are over low-level competition. He questions if Lipski has turned the corner and thinks the line is off. Paul believes Lipski has a legitimate chance.

"I am tempted for uh to to enact the CF dot model on this one Cody is has ariani lipsky turned the corner here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

The Guru picks Melissa Gatto, noting her impressive win over Ariane Lipski via front kick to the body and her submission win over Karol Rosa. He acknowledges her loss to Tracy Cortez but believes she has improved during her year off. He predicts a submission off her back, possibly an armbar.

submission off her back, armbar
"all the logic in the world is pointing me towards Melissa gato here"
LOSS vs Tracy Cortez
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tracy Cortez 0 36 of 66 54% 70 of 102 2 of 3 66% 1 1 7:54
Melissa Gatto 0 30 of 73 41% 49 of 95 3 of 6 50% 1 1 3:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tracy Cortez 0 11 of 16 68% 23 of 29 1 of 1 100% 0 1 3:16
Melissa Gatto 0 7 of 20 35% 14 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:38
2 Tracy Cortez 0 9 of 23 39% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:35
Melissa Gatto 0 15 of 35 42% 25 of 47 2 of 3 66% 1 0 2:04
3 Tracy Cortez 0 16 of 27 59% 27 of 39 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:03
Melissa Gatto 0 8 of 18 44% 10 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tracy Cortez 36 of 66 54% 25 of 51 6 of 9 5 of 6 14 of 37 2 of 2 20 of 27
Melissa Gatto 30 of 73 41% 25 of 61 3 of 7 2 of 5 27 of 69 0 of 1 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tracy Cortez 11 of 16 68% 8 of 13 0 of 0 3 of 3 5 of 7 0 of 0 6 of 9
Melissa Gatto 7 of 20 35% 6 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 3 7 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tracy Cortez 9 of 23 39% 4 of 16 4 of 6 1 of 1 5 of 18 1 of 1 3 of 4
Melissa Gatto 15 of 35 42% 13 of 30 2 of 4 0 of 1 14 of 33 0 of 1 1 of 1
3 Tracy Cortez 16 of 27 59% 13 of 22 2 of 3 1 of 2 4 of 12 1 of 1 11 of 14
Melissa Gatto 8 of 18 44% 6 of 14 1 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 16 0 of 0 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Angelo picks Tracy Cortez based on her wrestling, expecting her to grind out a decision. However, he admits his bet will be on Melissa Gatto to win inside the distance (decision no action), indicating a lack of full confidence in Cortez. He notes Cortez's layoff and Gatto's submission threat.

Bet on Melissa Gatto to win inside the distance (decision no action) at BetOnline
"she's the pick because of the wrestling my my bet is actually going to be on gatto so my pick is tracy cortez"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Big Brady picks Tracy Cortez to win by decision, but he is hesitant. He acknowledges that Gatto has shown impressive striking and grappling, but her takedown defense is poor. Cortez will look to take Gatto down and control her, and Brady believes she will succeed in getting takedowns. However, Gatto is dangerous off her back with submissions, so Cortez will have to fight off submissions for 15 minutes. Brady thinks Cortez will win by controlling the fight on the ground, but he would not count out Gatto completely.

decision
"I'm gonna take cortez to take godo down in each and every round controller for the majority of the fight but god is going to most definitely have her moments this is a very interesting fight I like both fighters …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Cody picks Tracy Cortez, but emphasizes monitoring the scales. He notes Cortez's wrestling advantage and that she trains at Fight Ready MMA. Cody believes Cortez can get takedowns and stay on top, avoiding Gatto's submissions. He thinks Gatto's guard is active but Cortez's wrestling and pace will prevail. Cody is confident if Cortez makes weight.

"i tend to go with the wrestler so i'm gonna go with tracy cortez at home"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Daniel Levi leans toward Melissa Gatto as an underdog, citing her cleaner striking, power, and opportunistic submissions. He expects Cortez to have early wrestling success but thinks Gatto can survive and turn the fight in later rounds. He is worried about Cortez's top control but sees value in Gatto at plus money. He has not bet yet, noting he missed better lines.

Daniel considers a Gatto submission prop but has not bet. He mentions the line moved from +170 to +130.
"I do like the potential in Gato. It's just this fight is one of those that I truly believe is gonna come down to the wire and oftentimes in fights like that I like to take the dog."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Melissa Gatto

The host picks Melissa Gatto but is not betting the fight due to volatility. He notes Cortez's strong wrestling but concerns about her weight miss and cardio. He highlights Gatto's impressive UFC performances, her ability to work from bottom, and her vicious striking. He expects Gatto to pressure, attack the body, and possibly find a submission or win via striking. He acknowledges Cortez will land takedowns but thinks Gatto will do enough to win.

"i am picking her to win she will be my prediction to win this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Paul picks Melissa Gatto as an underdog at +147. He believes the fight is more 50/50 and that Gatto's grappling is legit, with an active guard and submission threats. He fears Cortez's wrestling could control the fight, but thinks Gatto's strength and jiu-jitsu could lead to a submission. Paul acknowledges the Arizona home cooking factor but took the dog shot.

"i took the underdog shot on melissa gatto uh plus 147."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

The MMA Guru picks Melissa Gatto as an underdog, citing her underrated skills, youth, and physical advantages. He notes Gatto has a reach advantage, submission ability, and finishing power, as seen in her wins over Carol Rosa and Sijara Eubanks. He criticizes Cortez for pitter-patter striking and lack of finishing ability. He predicts Gatto will win on the feet and then secure a submission, possibly an armbar in the second round.

"i'm going with the underdog melissa garter moving on up the card"
TKO (body kick and punches) R3 0:45 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Melissa Gatto 0 14 of 45 31% 32 of 68 1 of 4 25% 0 1 6:05
Sijara Eubanks 1 17 of 34 50% 64 of 91 0 of 1 0% 0 1 3:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Melissa Gatto 0 8 of 18 44% 23 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 1 4:30
Sijara Eubanks 0 2 of 5 40% 20 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Melissa Gatto 0 4 of 11 36% 7 of 15 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:35
Sijara Eubanks 0 9 of 13 69% 37 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:53
3 Melissa Gatto 0 2 of 16 12% 2 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sijara Eubanks 1 6 of 16 37% 7 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Melissa Gatto 14 of 45 31% 10 of 37 4 of 8 0 of 0 5 of 33 2 of 2 7 of 10
Sijara Eubanks 17 of 34 50% 11 of 27 2 of 2 4 of 5 13 of 29 2 of 2 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Melissa Gatto 8 of 18 44% 8 of 16 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 8 0 of 0 7 of 10
Sijara Eubanks 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Melissa Gatto 4 of 11 36% 1 of 8 3 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 0
Sijara Eubanks 9 of 13 69% 7 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 10 2 of 2 1 of 1
3 Melissa Gatto 2 of 16 12% 1 of 13 1 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sijara Eubanks 6 of 16 37% 3 of 12 1 of 1 2 of 3 5 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Angelo picks Melissa Gatto with a half-unit bet at +190. He believes Gatto is a young up-and-comer with real potential, while Eubanks is a .500 fighter whose cardio issues may not be fully resolved. He notes that Gatto has good striking, can set up takedowns, and is aggressive on top. However, he cautions that if Eubanks' cardio holds up, she is a giant beast at 125 and could be a problem. He emphasizes that Gatto must stay on top and not pull guard.

0.5 units on moneyline at +190
"i like melissa gatto i put a half a unit on the money line i got it at plus 190"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sijara Eubanks

Big Brady picks Sijara Eubanks by decision, citing her experience, BJJ black belt, and path to victory via takedowns and ground control. He has concerns about Eubanks' age (36) and cardio if the fight extends. He notes Gatto's poor takedown defense and submission-over-position style, but acknowledges Gatto looked improved in her last fight. He says he may not bet Eubanks due to cardio worries.

decision
"I'm gonna pick cru banks to win by decision but um I don't think I'm gonna be betting her"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Sijara Eubanks

Cody leans Eubanks due to her BJJ, size, and physicality. He notes her wrestling is solid for the division and she is aggressive. However, he worries about her cardio and weight cuts. Gatto is more wily and could pressure late. Cody says it's not a high-confidence play and wants to see weigh-ins.

"I think I would lean towards eubanks it's not something I'm going to put finalized in bam bam but yeah as far as the show picks right now I would go you banks"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Daniel Levi picks Melissa Gatto as an underdog. He likes Gatto's scrappiness, aggression, and improvement, especially her arm submissions. Levi is concerned that Eubanks's jiu-jitsu could neutralize Gatto's sub attempts, but he believes Gatto's tenacity and desire to prove herself after a layoff will carry her. He thinks Gatto can make it close if she doesn't get held down for two rounds, and sees value in the plus money.

Gatto by submission; underdog play
"I'm gonna end up actually taking the dog because I think she's got a little bit more tenacity more ferocity."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lock picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Jacob is extremely confident in Melissa Gatto, calling it his lock of the week. He placed 5 units on her moneyline at +146, 4 units on her inside the distance (decision no action) at +170, and 2 units on under 2.5 rounds at +165. He believes Eubanks cannot bully Gatto, who has good striking and aggressive grappling. He compares it to the Miranda Maverick fight where the favorite was dominated. Jacob thinks Gatto will finish Eubanks, possibly by submission, and that the odds are moving fast.

5 units moneyline at +146, 4 units inside distance decision no action at +170, 2 units under 2.5 rounds at +165, 1 unit Gatto by submission at +1000
"i've never been so confident in a lock of the week pick in my entire life"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Sijara Eubanks

The host picks Eubanks by decision, highlighting her superior wrestling and jiu-jitsu. He notes that Gatto plays off her back and Eubanks should be able to control her on top. He likes the decision prop at +150, as Eubanks is not a proactive finisher.

Eubanks by decision (+150)
"I like me some eubanks i like her at minus 160 but i even like her prop here at decision uh via decision which i currently believe is plus 150"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Paul does not give a clear pick for this fight. He mentions that Eubanks is the rightful favorite but notes concerns about her cardio and weight cuts. He says to pay attention to weigh-ins. He does not commit to a pick.

"I think I would lean towards eubanks it's not something I'm going to put finalized in bam bam but yeah as far as the show picks right now I would go you banks want to see the weigh-ins though"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

The MMA Guru picks Melissa Gatto as an upset winner, predicting a first-round armbar submission. He notes Gatto has good jiu-jitsu and submitted Carol Rosa with a kimura. He thinks Eubanks is getting older and may entertain the ground game too much. He sees Eubanks ending up on top but getting caught in an armbar from bottom.

first round armbar submission
"i'm gonna go with melissa gato in an upset win here"
TKO (doctor stoppage) R2 5:00 · UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Aug 07, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Melissa Gatto 0 43 of 91 47% 59 of 110 0 of 3 0% 0 2 2:27
Victoria Leonardo 0 70 of 121 57% 96 of 148 1 of 5 20% 0 1 1:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Melissa Gatto 0 13 of 27 48% 27 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 2 1:59
Victoria Leonardo 0 13 of 21 61% 36 of 45 1 of 4 25% 0 1 1:48
2 Melissa Gatto 0 30 of 64 46% 32 of 66 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:28
Victoria Leonardo 0 57 of 100 57% 60 of 103 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Melissa Gatto 43 of 91 47% 14 of 58 13 of 17 16 of 16 38 of 84 3 of 4 2 of 3
Victoria Leonardo 70 of 121 57% 42 of 83 12 of 19 16 of 19 63 of 110 6 of 10 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Melissa Gatto 13 of 27 48% 4 of 17 3 of 4 6 of 6 9 of 22 2 of 2 2 of 3
Victoria Leonardo 13 of 21 61% 7 of 12 2 of 5 4 of 4 9 of 14 3 of 6 1 of 1
2 Melissa Gatto 30 of 64 46% 10 of 41 10 of 13 10 of 10 29 of 62 1 of 2 0 of 0
Victoria Leonardo 57 of 100 57% 35 of 71 10 of 14 12 of 15 54 of 96 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2021 (fight day)
Victoria Leonardo

Angelo picks Leonardo, citing Gatto's long layoff (2.5 years due to USADA suspension) and that Gatto is a grappler who likes to fight off her back. He thinks Leonardo will be on top and win a decision. He calls Leonardo a solid underdog pick.

"I really like Victoria Leonardo in this fight... there's too many unknowns with Melissa Gatto, she's been out for too long."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 3, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Victoria Leonardo

Big Brady is hesitant on this fight due to many question marks. He thinks Melissa Gatto is sub-or-bust and has poor takedown defense, while Victoria Leonardo is more active and likely the better striker. He picks Leonardo to win by decision but warns that Gatto could pull off an armbar from guard. He advises staying away from betting this fight.

armbar from guard possibility; stay away from betting
"I will pick her to win, I'll pick her to win by decision but honestly this has armbar from guard written all over it."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Cody picks Gatto, citing the narrative of Brazilian fighters improving after long layoffs. He notes her BJJ skills and potential improvements in wrestling. He thinks she can get the fight to the ground and submit Leonardo.

Gatto by submission
"i actually just got to take that shot in the dark and i'm going to end up going with gato here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Daniel Levi picks Melissa Gatto to win by opportunistic submission, citing that Victoria Leonardo is a punching bag on the feet and has been stopped multiple times. He notes that Gatto is young and may have improved during her USADA suspension, and that Leonardo's takedown attempts could lead to submissions. He does not put much stock into the suspension for a young fighter and believes Gatto has the skills to finish.

Says Gatto by opportunistic submission
"I'ma go Gatta opportunistic submission somewhere along the way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Victoria Leonardo

Gatto is a BJJ specialist who relies on takedowns, but Leonardo has a purple belt and good enough grappling to nullify submissions. Leonardo is stronger, has better striking, and better cardio. The longer the fight goes, the more success Leonardo will have, likely finishing Gatto in the third round via ground and pound.

Leonardo by KO/TKO +550; Leonardo in round 3 +1475; under 2.5 rounds
"I think that the longer that this fight goes Leonardo will have more and more success and I think that ultimately we'll actually see Leonardo get her out of there probably in the third round."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick. He is surprised by the pick'em line and notes the lack of tape on both fighters.

TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

The MMA Guru picks Melissa Gatto to win by first-round submission. He highlights Gatto's undefeated record (6-0 with two draws) and her win over Carol Rosa, who is now on a four-fight win streak in the UFC. He criticizes Victoria Leonardo's lack of technical skill and poor chin, noting she has been knocked out twice recently. He predicts Gatto will submit Leonardo, possibly off her back.

first round submission
"i'm going to call her first round submission for melissa gatto here over leonardo"
Victoria Leonardo - Fight History
LOSS vs Wang Cong
KO (punches) R1 1:02 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Borralho · Aug 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Wang Cong 1 10 of 26 38% 10 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Victoria Leonardo 0 1 of 9 11% 1 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Wang Cong 1 10 of 26 38% 10 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Victoria Leonardo 0 1 of 9 11% 1 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Wang Cong 10 of 26 38% 4 of 16 1 of 5 5 of 5 10 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Victoria Leonardo 1 of 9 11% 0 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Wang Cong 10 of 26 38% 4 of 16 1 of 5 5 of 5 10 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Victoria Leonardo 1 of 9 11% 0 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Wang Cong

Angelo picks Wang Cong, calling her the biggest favorite on the card at 8-to-1 odds. He notes her high-level kickboxing background, including a win over Valentina Shevchenko, and her striking speed and power. He thinks she is light years ahead of Leonardo in striking and should win, potentially by stoppage. However, he warns against betting the moneyline because the odds are too far gone and she is an untested UFC debut. He considers a bet on the under 2.5 rounds if the line is juiced.

under 2.5 rounds (if juiced)
"Kong Wang is going to be the pick there is no money to be made on her do not bet her money line you can't do it the odds are too far gone"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Wang Cong

Cody picks Wang Cong because of her striking pedigree, including a kickboxing win over Valentina Shevchenko. He notes that Leonardo is 1-3 in the UFC and has been finished by lesser strikers. He thinks Wang Cong's power and precision will be too much. He also mentions that the UFC is building her up as a potential contender.

"I think she gets the job done personally... sign me up I'm I'm I'm part of the Wang Gang"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Wang Cong

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Wang Cong, noting her kickboxing background and Leonardo's history of being finished by UFC-caliber opponents. He expects a dominant performance, possibly by head kick or other finish.

finish
"I think Kong Wong is going to come out and Destroy Victoria Leonardo"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Wang Cong

Brevin picks Wang Cong by KO, citing her strong wrestling and grappling, and noting that Leonardo is a terrible striker with no striking ability. He is confident Wang will get the job done on Saturday. JP piggybacks, also taking Wang by KO, emphasizing Leonardo's poor record of 1-4 with KOs.

Wang Cong by KO
"I'm going to take Kong Wang give me Kong Wang by KO sltko and I don't do that a lot for these women's fights but Wing's a beast she's gonna get it done"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Wang Cong

Paul picks Wang Cong, noting her kickboxing background and the UFC's intention to build a Chinese star. He thinks Leonardo is a gatekeeper who will be used to propel Wang Cong. He also mentions that Wang Cong showed grappling skills on Road to the UFC. He says he's willing to pay the chalk.

"I plan to Wang Chong tonight Everybody Wang Chong tonight... I'm not going to go against her especially over Vicky Leons"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Wang Cong

The MMA Guru picks Wang Cong because she is undefeated and Victoria Leonardo is 'garbage' and should not be in the UFC. He dismisses Leonardo's skills entirely, suggesting she has no business being signed. He does not elaborate on Wang's specific strengths but is confident in her victory.

"I'm going to go with Wang no Jones um she probably win she's undefeated Victoria Leonardo's garbage"
LOSS vs Natália Silva
TKO (punches and head kick) R1 2:58 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · May 20, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Natália Silva 1 20 of 45 44% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Victoria Leonardo 0 7 of 18 38% 7 of 18 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Natália Silva 1 20 of 45 44% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Victoria Leonardo 0 7 of 18 38% 7 of 18 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Natália Silva 20 of 45 44% 16 of 41 2 of 2 2 of 2 20 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 1
Victoria Leonardo 7 of 18 38% 6 of 14 0 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Natália Silva 20 of 45 44% 16 of 41 2 of 2 2 of 2 20 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 1
Victoria Leonardo 7 of 18 38% 6 of 14 0 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 14, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Angelo is very confident in Natália Silva winning, citing her superior striking, grappling, power, and athleticism. He acknowledges Victoria Leonardo may be the better wrestler and could get takedowns, but believes Silva will work back up and potentially get a finish. However, he is undecided on betting due to the juiced line and past burns on women's MMA favorites.

Considering inside the distance decision no action if props drop at a good price
"Natalia is a very very real Prospect I like her to win I'm very confident in her undecided on bets though because that is a very Juiced line"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 12, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Big Brady picks Natália Silva to knock out Victoria Leonardo in the second round. He is very confident, noting Silva's striking is elite and her takedown defense has improved significantly. He sees Leonardo's only path to success being clinch control, but doubts she can get takedowns. He expects Silva to dominate on the feet and finish Leonardo, who has been finished in all her losses.

knockout in round 2
"I think Silva knocks out Victoria Leonardo in the second round here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Cody is very confident in Silva, citing her impressive debut and well-rounded skills. He notes Leonardo's poor durability and record. He expects Silva to win easily, possibly by finish.

"I'm definitely picking Natalia Silva."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 19, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Natália Silva

Connor is also very confident in Silva, agreeing that she is much better technically, harder hitting, and more dynamic everywhere. He notes that Leonardo is slow and that Silva will dominate. Connor mentions that Silva has lost fights early in her career but has used that experience to hit the UFC very ready.

"I think she's just going to absolutely flex on Leonardo. If she doesn't then that is only says bad things about Natalia Silva."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Daniel Levi is extremely confident in Natália Silva, calling her a future star. He praises her striking, takedown defense, and highlight-reel potential (spinning back kick KO). He views Victoria Leonardo as a stepping stone and expects Silva to make a statement. He notes Leonardo has been susceptible to high kicks in the past. He says Silva is ready for the top 15 and this is a showcase fight.

Silva by finish (likely KO)
"Natalia this is yours baby girl so I hope you go out there and show us what you're capable of"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 15, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Natália Silva

The host is confident Natália Silva will win, but notes the -1000 moneyline is prohibitive. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop, expecting Silva's speed and power to be too much for Leonardo. He thinks Silva will find a finish, possibly by knockout or club and sub, as Leonardo slows down and eats damage.

under 2.5 rounds, Silva inside the distance
"the best way to probably approach this is the under two and a half you know the speed and stinging power of Silva on the feed might end up being too much for Victoria Leonardo"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Paul also picks Silva, but notes the heavy price. He thinks Silva is much more skilled and should win, but acknowledges the risk of betting such a short favorite. He takes a prop bet on Silva inside the distance.

inside the distance
"I'm gonna pick Natalia Silva to win."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked May 16, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Natália Silva

The MMA Guru calls this the lock of the card, praising Natália Silva's well-rounded game including submissions off her back and excellent striking. He notes she schooled Jasmine Jasudavicius and finished Teresa Blader with a spinning back kick. He dismisses Victoria Leonardo as mediocre in every realm, despite her win over Mandy Böhm. He expects Silva to win decisively.

"I'm gonna go with Natalia Silva of course this is the common sense pick of the card this is the lock of the card"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 19, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Natália Silva

Zane is very confident in Silva, describing her as aggressive, fast, and technical with good wrestling and grappling. He notes that Leonardo is terribly slow and that Silva will absolutely flex on her. Zane believes Silva is a borderline finished product and will crush Leonardo.

"Natalia Silva rocks. Yeah. She's going to, we're going to see some things further exposed here at some point, but like she's aggressive. She's fast. She puts her strikes together very well."
WIN vs Mandy Böhm
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Jul 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Victoria Leonardo 0 52 of 93 55% 83 of 124 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:55
Mandy Böhm 0 39 of 110 35% 85 of 166 2 of 6 33% 0 0 7:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Victoria Leonardo 0 15 of 26 57% 25 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Mandy Böhm 0 9 of 30 30% 25 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:30
2 Victoria Leonardo 0 18 of 36 50% 29 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Mandy Böhm 0 20 of 43 46% 35 of 60 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:15
3 Victoria Leonardo 0 19 of 31 61% 29 of 41 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:23
Mandy Böhm 0 10 of 37 27% 25 of 60 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Victoria Leonardo 52 of 93 55% 26 of 66 14 of 15 12 of 12 35 of 75 17 of 17 0 of 1
Mandy Böhm 39 of 110 35% 21 of 80 18 of 26 0 of 4 25 of 94 13 of 15 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Victoria Leonardo 15 of 26 57% 6 of 17 3 of 3 6 of 6 12 of 23 3 of 3 0 of 0
Mandy Böhm 9 of 30 30% 5 of 22 4 of 6 0 of 2 6 of 27 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Victoria Leonardo 18 of 36 50% 11 of 29 5 of 5 2 of 2 11 of 29 7 of 7 0 of 0
Mandy Böhm 20 of 43 46% 10 of 30 10 of 11 0 of 2 13 of 35 7 of 8 0 of 0
3 Victoria Leonardo 19 of 31 61% 9 of 20 6 of 7 4 of 4 12 of 23 7 of 7 0 of 1
Mandy Böhm 10 of 37 27% 6 of 28 4 of 9 0 of 0 6 of 32 3 of 4 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Mandy Böhm

Angelo picks Mandy Böhm as the more talented fighter overall, despite her inexperience and loss in her UFC debut. He notes Victoria Leonardo has fought higher competition but needs to get the fight to the ground, and Mandy defended all takedown attempts in her last fight. He calls it a no-bet situation and advises saving money.

no bet
"i'm gonna go with my head here i'm gonna grab the overall more talented fighter in mandy but this is a no bet situation"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Victoria Leonardo

Big Brady picks Victoria Leonardo as an underdog. He was unimpressed with Mandy Böhm, calling her performance 'horrible' and couldn't find a positive. He thinks Leonardo is physically stronger, can push Böhm against the cage, and take her down. He expects Leonardo to grind out a decision win.

Leonardo by decision
"give me leonardo to win um she's on a two fight losing streak but again look at who she's lost to i think she uses her physicality out here uh goes and grinds out a decision win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Victoria Leonardo

Cody picks Victoria Leonardo, noting her bully style might work against Mandy Böhm, who is not physically strong. He thinks Böhm looked poor in her UFC debut. Cody says it's a dogger pass and he is taking the slight underdog.

"this is women's mma dog or pass and i believe it's slight underdog money here on victoria leonardo so that's that's where i ended up going"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Mandy Böhm

Daniel Levi treats this fight as a coin flip, acknowledging that both fighters are low-level. He notes that Leonardo has fought better competition but lost badly, while Böhm had a poor UFC debut but has since moved to a new gym. He decides to go with Böhm because everyone else is on Leonardo, but admits it's not a confident pick.

"since everybody's on leonardo i'll just go with bone but it was more of like a coin flip type thing"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Victoria Leonardo

Leonardo has the grit and fighting nature to will herself to a win. She can drag Böhm to the ground and rough her up. Böhm lacks power and distance management, and needs a kickboxing match to succeed. Leonardo at underdog odds is good value.

"I'm gonna go Victoria Leonardo to pull off the upside here in the second fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Victoria Leonardo

Paul picks Victoria Leonardo at plus money, calling it a dogger pass. He has no intention to bet on this fight. He notes both fighters have poor records but thinks Leonardo's bully style might work against Böhm, who is not physically strong. Paul says it's women's MMA and passes.

"this is the fight that puts the pass in fight pass for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Mandy Böhm

The MMA Guru leans towards Mandy Böhm, citing her size advantage and reach. He notes that Victoria Leonardo is coming off a broken arm and should be a strawweight. Böhm has a 71-inch reach and will use it on the feet. He doesn't see Leonardo outgrappling her and expects Böhm to win by decision.

decision
"i'm definitely going to lean towards mandy bomb here"
LOSS vs Melissa Gatto
TKO (doctor stoppage) R2 5:00 · UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Aug 07, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Melissa Gatto 0 43 of 91 47% 59 of 110 0 of 3 0% 0 2 2:27
Victoria Leonardo 0 70 of 121 57% 96 of 148 1 of 5 20% 0 1 1:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Melissa Gatto 0 13 of 27 48% 27 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 2 1:59
Victoria Leonardo 0 13 of 21 61% 36 of 45 1 of 4 25% 0 1 1:48
2 Melissa Gatto 0 30 of 64 46% 32 of 66 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:28
Victoria Leonardo 0 57 of 100 57% 60 of 103 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Melissa Gatto 43 of 91 47% 14 of 58 13 of 17 16 of 16 38 of 84 3 of 4 2 of 3
Victoria Leonardo 70 of 121 57% 42 of 83 12 of 19 16 of 19 63 of 110 6 of 10 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Melissa Gatto 13 of 27 48% 4 of 17 3 of 4 6 of 6 9 of 22 2 of 2 2 of 3
Victoria Leonardo 13 of 21 61% 7 of 12 2 of 5 4 of 4 9 of 14 3 of 6 1 of 1
2 Melissa Gatto 30 of 64 46% 10 of 41 10 of 13 10 of 10 29 of 62 1 of 2 0 of 0
Victoria Leonardo 57 of 100 57% 35 of 71 10 of 14 12 of 15 54 of 96 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2021 (fight day)
Victoria Leonardo

Angelo picks Leonardo, citing Gatto's long layoff (2.5 years due to USADA suspension) and that Gatto is a grappler who likes to fight off her back. He thinks Leonardo will be on top and win a decision. He calls Leonardo a solid underdog pick.

"I really like Victoria Leonardo in this fight... there's too many unknowns with Melissa Gatto, she's been out for too long."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 3, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Victoria Leonardo

Big Brady is hesitant on this fight due to many question marks. He thinks Melissa Gatto is sub-or-bust and has poor takedown defense, while Victoria Leonardo is more active and likely the better striker. He picks Leonardo to win by decision but warns that Gatto could pull off an armbar from guard. He advises staying away from betting this fight.

armbar from guard possibility; stay away from betting
"I will pick her to win, I'll pick her to win by decision but honestly this has armbar from guard written all over it."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Cody picks Gatto, citing the narrative of Brazilian fighters improving after long layoffs. He notes her BJJ skills and potential improvements in wrestling. He thinks she can get the fight to the ground and submit Leonardo.

Gatto by submission
"i actually just got to take that shot in the dark and i'm going to end up going with gato here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Daniel Levi picks Melissa Gatto to win by opportunistic submission, citing that Victoria Leonardo is a punching bag on the feet and has been stopped multiple times. He notes that Gatto is young and may have improved during her USADA suspension, and that Leonardo's takedown attempts could lead to submissions. He does not put much stock into the suspension for a young fighter and believes Gatto has the skills to finish.

Says Gatto by opportunistic submission
"I'ma go Gatta opportunistic submission somewhere along the way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Victoria Leonardo

Gatto is a BJJ specialist who relies on takedowns, but Leonardo has a purple belt and good enough grappling to nullify submissions. Leonardo is stronger, has better striking, and better cardio. The longer the fight goes, the more success Leonardo will have, likely finishing Gatto in the third round via ground and pound.

Leonardo by KO/TKO +550; Leonardo in round 3 +1475; under 2.5 rounds
"I think that the longer that this fight goes Leonardo will have more and more success and I think that ultimately we'll actually see Leonardo get her out of there probably in the third round."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick. He is surprised by the pick'em line and notes the lack of tape on both fighters.

TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

The MMA Guru picks Melissa Gatto to win by first-round submission. He highlights Gatto's undefeated record (6-0 with two draws) and her win over Carol Rosa, who is now on a four-fight win streak in the UFC. He criticizes Victoria Leonardo's lack of technical skill and poor chin, noting she has been knocked out twice recently. He predicts Gatto will submit Leonardo, possibly off her back.

first round submission
"i'm going to call her first round submission for melissa gatto here over leonardo"
LOSS vs Manon Fiorot
TKO (head kick and punches) R2 4:08 · UFC on ESPN: Chiesa vs. Magny · Jan 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Manon Fiorot 0 17 of 81 20% 18 of 82 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Victoria Leonardo 0 53 of 100 53% 58 of 105 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Manon Fiorot 0 10 of 51 19% 11 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Victoria Leonardo 0 32 of 55 58% 33 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
2 Manon Fiorot 0 7 of 30 23% 7 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Victoria Leonardo 0 21 of 45 46% 25 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Manon Fiorot 17 of 81 20% 7 of 59 3 of 11 7 of 11 15 of 76 2 of 5 0 of 0
Victoria Leonardo 53 of 100 53% 31 of 72 14 of 19 8 of 9 42 of 82 10 of 15 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Manon Fiorot 10 of 51 19% 4 of 39 3 of 7 3 of 5 8 of 47 2 of 4 0 of 0
Victoria Leonardo 32 of 55 58% 14 of 34 12 of 15 6 of 6 22 of 42 10 of 13 0 of 0
2 Manon Fiorot 7 of 30 23% 3 of 20 0 of 4 4 of 6 7 of 29 0 of 1 0 of 0
Victoria Leonardo 21 of 45 46% 17 of 38 2 of 4 2 of 3 20 of 40 0 of 2 1 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Victoria Leonardo vs. Manon Fiorot

Round 1
In the middle of this short stint on Fight Island, the UFC comes at fans with a Wednesday card that will be going on at the same time as some other thing people are watching. We’re here for the fights, with a 14-fight card that requires fans to get out some coffee for this match starting in the women’s flyweight division. A pair of newcomers battle it out to begin the day, as Contender Series signee Leonardo (8-2, 0-0 UFC) comes to blows with French kickboxer Fiorot (5-1, 0-0 UFC). The referee for this opening bout is Lukasz Bosacki, and the two flyweights do not touch gloves before coming out swinging. Instead, Fiorot is ready with kicks to the body and legs, and Leonardo absorbs them and tries to fire back. “Fury” throws with early fury, but the Frenchwoman dances out of the way as she paws out side kicks to the body. Leonardo aims a low kick to the knee, and looks to time an overhand right, but she falls short. Fiorot stays in distinct kickboxing range, booting Leonardo in the face with a kick. The American wears it well, and Fiorot tees off on her from afar with long reaching kicks. Leonardo cannot find her range, so she charges into a clinch and narrowly avoids a brief punch combination. Leonardo crashes the pocket but gets tagged to the body and head by the newcomer from France. While Leonardo looks to strike her way in, Fiorot greets her with strikes but cannot keep Leonardo off of her. Instead, Fiorot works the body a few times, so the two separate, allowing Leonardo to reach with a right hand only to get smacked with a heavy elbow. Fiorot tattoos her foot on Leonardo’s body and head, leading “Fury” to charge in and clinch. Leonardo gets met with several knees up the middle as she does this, and a few punches knock her hair tie out. Fiorot stuns Leonardo with a combination, and Leonardo stumbles out of the way as she just avoids a spinning wheel kick that brushes by her loosed hair. Fiorot clinches up, scoring a stiff knee and a few punches that ring Leonardo’s bell. A single body kick from Leonardo scores, so Fiorot tries to give it back to her with a spinning back kick but she is too close. The two stare at each other to end the round, and Fiorot briefly puts her hands on her hips to take a deep breath as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot

Round 2
Leonardo rushes out of her corner with strikes to begin the second frame, likely sensing she dropped the first five-minute period. Fiorot is ready to counter her with sharp strikes including a check right hook, and Leonardo is stuck hitting little but air as the Frenchwoman dances out of the way. Fiorot stabs her foot out to the midsection to push Leonardo away, and “Fury” tries to close the distance with strikes. Fiorot uses solid head movement to evade most strikes, brushing off high kicks and even thwarting a takedown attempt with ease. Leonardo lands a single right hand, and manages to avoid the counter strikes but it is one-and-done. Leonardo flips up a high kick that Fiorot slaps away, and it is the Frenchwoman who comes in to clinch up and pursue a takedown. Leonardo gets lifted up in the air and planted on her back, where Fiorot takes half guard with ease as she immediately starts dropping down elbows and punches. Leonardo kicks off the cage and is able to get her foe back to guard before pushing Fiorot away to stand back up. Fiorot blocks three punches and a head kick without any concern, and springs forward to land a few punches. When Leonardo blitzes her, Fiorot clips her with a check hook.
Fiorot unleashes a hellacious combination that has Leonardo hurt, and “Fury” turns away from this furious barrage. A head kick gets the damage started as Leonardo turns away, and a stream of punches overwhelms her until Bosacki has no choice but to step in.
A standing TKO is the call, and this was a spectacular debut for the French fighter on short notice.

The Official Result
Manon Fiorot def. Victoria Leonardo R2 4:08 via TKO (Head Kick and Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Big Brady is very high on Manon Fiorot, praising her striking as fantastic and noting her power and accuracy. He criticizes Victoria Leonardo's striking defense, saying she got head kicked multiple times and has poor IQ. He believes Fiorot will have massive success on the feet and predicts a knockout in round two. He mentions that Fiorot opened at +115 and is now -190, and he would have loved to get her at the plus price.

Fiorot by KO in round 2; opened at +115, now -190; expects line to widen to -200 or more
"i think fiora is going to have massive massive success on the feed here and maybe even knock out leonardo"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Manon Fiorot

The host believes Manon Fiorot's kickboxing and Muay Thai background will be too much for Victoria Leonardo. He notes Fiorot's improvements in grappling and ability to stay out of bad positions, while Leonardo's path to victory is on the ground. He predicts Fiorot will land a head kick or combination in the second round for a TKO finish.

under 2.5 rounds at +170
"i think eventually in the second round we'll see mano land some big shots and eventually ground leonardo on her on route to a tko finish"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

The MMA Guru picks Manon Fiorot, citing her strong kickboxing and taekwondo background, and her ability to grapple as shown in her debut against Leah McCourt where she reversed positions and showed escapes. He believes Fiorot has a massive stand-up advantage over Leonardo, who relies on grappling. He predicts a unanimous decision win, noting that Leonardo has been TKO'd by a head kick before but expects Fiorot to control the fight on the feet and avoid trouble on the ground.

unanimous decision
"i will be going with manufa here getting the job done the first french woman in the ufc i think she'll get it done as well"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2021 (fight day)
Victoria Leonardo

Angelo picks Leonardo, citing Gatto's long layoff (2.5 years due to USADA suspension) and that Gatto is a grappler who likes to fight off her back. He thinks Leonardo will be on top and win a decision. He calls Leonardo a solid underdog pick.

"I really like Victoria Leonardo in this fight... there's too many unknowns with Melissa Gatto, she's been out for too long."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 3, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Victoria Leonardo

Big Brady is hesitant on this fight due to many question marks. He thinks Melissa Gatto is sub-or-bust and has poor takedown defense, while Victoria Leonardo is more active and likely the better striker. He picks Leonardo to win by decision but warns that Gatto could pull off an armbar from guard. He advises staying away from betting this fight.

armbar from guard possibility; stay away from betting
"I will pick her to win, I'll pick her to win by decision but honestly this has armbar from guard written all over it."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Cody picks Gatto, citing the narrative of Brazilian fighters improving after long layoffs. He notes her BJJ skills and potential improvements in wrestling. He thinks she can get the fight to the ground and submit Leonardo.

Gatto by submission
"i actually just got to take that shot in the dark and i'm going to end up going with gato here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Daniel Levi picks Melissa Gatto to win by opportunistic submission, citing that Victoria Leonardo is a punching bag on the feet and has been stopped multiple times. He notes that Gatto is young and may have improved during her USADA suspension, and that Leonardo's takedown attempts could lead to submissions. He does not put much stock into the suspension for a young fighter and believes Gatto has the skills to finish.

Says Gatto by opportunistic submission
"I'ma go Gatta opportunistic submission somewhere along the way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Victoria Leonardo

Gatto is a BJJ specialist who relies on takedowns, but Leonardo has a purple belt and good enough grappling to nullify submissions. Leonardo is stronger, has better striking, and better cardio. The longer the fight goes, the more success Leonardo will have, likely finishing Gatto in the third round via ground and pound.

Leonardo by KO/TKO +550; Leonardo in round 3 +1475; under 2.5 rounds
"I think that the longer that this fight goes Leonardo will have more and more success and I think that ultimately we'll actually see Leonardo get her out of there probably in the third round."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

Paul does not make a clear pick. He is surprised by the pick'em line and notes the lack of tape on both fighters.

TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

The MMA Guru picks Melissa Gatto to win by first-round submission. He highlights Gatto's undefeated record (6-0 with two draws) and her win over Carol Rosa, who is now on a four-fight win streak in the UFC. He criticizes Victoria Leonardo's lack of technical skill and poor chin, noting she has been knocked out twice recently. He predicts Gatto will submit Leonardo, possibly off her back.

first round submission
"i'm going to call her first round submission for melissa gatto here over leonardo"