Career Averages - Jessica Penne
Career Averages - Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Jessica Penne
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Jessica Penne - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elise Reed | 0 | 54 of 125 | 43% | 98 of 174 | 1 of 13 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 3:16 |
| Jessica Penne | 0 | 117 of 188 | 62% | 229 of 306 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elise Reed | 0 | 19 of 33 | 57% | 51 of 70 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:49 |
| Jessica Penne | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 105 of 122 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Elise Reed | 0 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 26 of 50 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Jessica Penne | 0 | 44 of 70 | 62% | 56 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 3 | Elise Reed | 0 | 17 of 50 | 34% | 21 of 54 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jessica Penne | 0 | 67 of 101 | 66% | 68 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elise Reed | 54 of 125 | 43% | 26 of 89 | 18 of 25 | 10 of 11 | 44 of 112 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Jessica Penne | 117 of 188 | 62% | 84 of 145 | 18 of 19 | 15 of 24 | 110 of 181 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elise Reed | 19 of 33 | 57% | 7 of 20 | 9 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 14 of 28 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Jessica Penne | 6 of 17 | 35% | 0 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Elise Reed | 18 of 42 | 42% | 7 of 28 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 14 of 37 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Jessica Penne | 44 of 70 | 62% | 31 of 50 | 8 of 8 | 5 of 12 | 39 of 65 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Elise Reed | 17 of 50 | 34% | 12 of 41 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 47 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jessica Penne | 67 of 101 | 66% | 53 of 85 | 8 of 9 | 6 of 7 | 66 of 100 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Elise Reed because he believes Jessica Penne, at 41 years old and coming off a disinterested performance, is not fully committed to fighting anymore. He notes Reed's busy striking, good cardio, and inconsistency but thinks she is the hungrier fighter. He sees value at -150 and also likes the over 2.5 rounds as a safe bet. He speculates Penne is more focused on her post-fighting career and won't have the same drive.
Big Brady picks Jessica Penne by first-round submission. He highlights Reed's terrible ground game, with four submission losses, and Penne's BJJ black belt. He notes Penne is 41 and coming off a layoff, but if she gets the fight to the mat, she will submit Reed. He is surprised Reed is favored.
Connor picks Reed, though he doesn't feel good about it. He notes that Reed has natural power and can crack, and that she has been able to win fights despite her flaws. He acknowledges that Reed often stops fighting after hurting opponents, but thinks she might be able to knock Penne out or do enough to win.
This fight was not discussed in the transcript.
Reed is a striker and can keep the fight upright enough to batter Penne and win on the scorecards. However, Penne winning by submission at +500 is a tempting sprinkle, as it could take just one back take or takedown for Penne to utilize her jiu-jitsu advantage. The official prediction is Reed by decision.
The Guru initially does not want to pick Jessica Penne due to her age (41) and recent losses, but after considering that Elise Reed is 'garbage' and Penne is taller and rangier, he decides to take the underdog. He admits he doesn't normally check odds beforehand but notes Penne is an underdog and goes with her.
Zane picks Penne because he believes Reed will not be consistent enough to keep Penne at range. He notes that Reed has a tendency to stop fighting after landing a big shot, and that Penne is hittable and predictable, but Reed doesn't have the footwork to stay away. He thinks Penne will eventually tangle up with Reed and get the grappling exchange she wants.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 6 of 25 | 24% | 19 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jessica Penne | 0 | 36 of 54 | 66% | 81 of 109 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 5:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 3 of 13 | 23% | 14 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jessica Penne | 0 | 26 of 39 | 66% | 62 of 83 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:54 | |
| 2 | Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 5 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jessica Penne | 0 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 19 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tabatha Ricci | 6 of 25 | 24% | 4 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Jessica Penne | 36 of 54 | 66% | 19 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 17 | 15 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 20 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tabatha Ricci | 3 of 13 | 23% | 2 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Jessica Penne | 26 of 39 | 66% | 13 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 12 | 9 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 16 | |
| 2 | Tabatha Ricci | 3 of 12 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jessica Penne | 10 of 15 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 |
Angelo is confident in Tabatha Ricci, citing her strong grappling, top pressure, and submission skills. He notes that Jessica Penne has only 40% takedown defense and that Ricci should dominate with her wrestling. Angelo bet 1.5 units on Ricci at -240.
Big Brady picks Tabatha Ricci, noting her ability to dictate where the fight takes place with her wrestling and judo. He mentions Penne's poor takedown defense (40%) and that Ricci can safely grapple without getting caught in submissions. He predicts a decision win for Ricci, with the fight primarily on the mat.
Cody picks Ricci, citing her youth, judo, and well-rounded game. He thinks Penne is too old and has been off for four years. He expects Ricci to win by decision or submission.
Connor picks Tabatha Ricci, though he is not confident. He notes that Ricci is a high-level BJJ black belt and will likely take the fight to the ground, where Penne is actually good. However, he thinks Ricci's aggression and functional grappling will allow her to win positions and avoid being submitted. Connor admits the fight is hard to analyze and could go either way.
Jacob agrees with Angelo, comparing this fight to Ricci's previous win over Polyana Viana. He believes Penne is a step down in competition and that Ricci will dominate with her pressure and top control. Jacob is fully confident in Ricci.
Ricci is a high-level BJJ black belt with good wrestling and control time. Penne is 40, has poor striking, and relies on dragging fights to the ground, but Ricci will likely be on top and avoid submissions. Ricci grinds out a decision victory.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Ricci. He notes the line has moved from -175 to -325, indicating sharp money. He thinks Ricci's grappling and youth will be too much for Penne.
The MMA Guru picks Tabatha Ricci, citing Jessica Penne's age (40) and Ricci's grappling advantage. He expects Ricci to control top position and win a split decision, noting that women's MMA judging often favors control time.
Zane also picks Ricci, agreeing that her functional aggression and grappling will be enough to overcome Penne's awkward style. He notes that Penne's striking is robotic and she struggles with range, while Ricci will close the distance and make it a grappling match. Zane thinks Ricci's speed and confidence give her an edge, but he is not fully convinced.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Ducote | 0 | 63 of 244 | 25% | 68 of 249 | 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jessica Penne | 0 | 116 of 205 | 56% | 117 of 206 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emily Ducote | 0 | 17 of 67 | 25% | 20 of 70 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jessica Penne | 0 | 35 of 58 | 60% | 35 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Emily Ducote | 0 | 26 of 88 | 29% | 28 of 90 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jessica Penne | 0 | 37 of 73 | 50% | 38 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Emily Ducote | 0 | 20 of 89 | 22% | 20 of 89 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jessica Penne | 0 | 44 of 74 | 59% | 44 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Ducote | 63 of 244 | 25% | 37 of 208 | 26 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 55 of 234 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Jessica Penne | 116 of 205 | 56% | 41 of 113 | 24 of 34 | 51 of 58 | 115 of 203 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emily Ducote | 17 of 67 | 25% | 13 of 61 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 65 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jessica Penne | 35 of 58 | 60% | 13 of 33 | 10 of 12 | 12 of 13 | 35 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Emily Ducote | 26 of 88 | 29% | 14 of 72 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 80 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Jessica Penne | 37 of 73 | 50% | 17 of 49 | 6 of 10 | 14 of 14 | 36 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Emily Ducote | 20 of 89 | 22% | 10 of 75 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jessica Penne | 44 of 74 | 59% | 11 of 31 | 8 of 12 | 25 of 31 | 44 of 74 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Emily Ducote but is hesitant due to a five-week trend of underdogs winning the first fight of the night. He notes Ducote's patient, accurate striking and wrestling, but acknowledges Penne's experience and the risk of a bad decision. He advises against betting on this fight.
Big Brady picks Emily Ducote to win by decision. He notes that Ducote is 11 years younger, has good takedown defense, and should be the better striker on the feet. He thinks she can stuff Penne's takedowns and outpoint her for three rounds. He warns that if Penne gets the fight to the mat, she could submit Ducote, but he expects Ducote to keep it standing.
Cody is confident in Ducote, citing her wrestling background, BJJ black belt, and well-rounded game. He notes that Penne is 39 and relies on takedowns, but Ducote has the grappling to defend and the striking to win on the feet. He believes Ducote has multiple paths to victory and is a good price at -150.
Daniel Levi leans Emily Ducote, noting she is experienced and has paid her dues. He expects a close fight where Ducote lands better strikes and gets top control, but must be careful of Penne's submissions. He sees it as a dog-or-pass situation and predicts a close decision.
Paul also picks Ducote, agreeing that she is the better fighter in all aspects. He notes her youth, experience, and recent improvements. He believes Penne's magic is running out and that Ducote will win, possibly by decision or TKO.
The MMA Guru picks Emily Ducote over Jessica Penne, citing Ducote's power as a key advantage in the women's division. He notes that Ducote finished Danielle Taylor, who beat Penne by decision, and that Penne doesn't know how to fight. He acknowledges the unpredictability of women's MMA but sides with Ducote's power, believing it will impact judges' scorecards even if she is outlanded.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jessica Penne | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 28 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 21 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jessica Penne | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 28 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 21 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jessica Penne | 8 of 12 | 66% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 12 of 19 | 63% | 9 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jessica Penne | 8 of 12 | 66% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 12 of 19 | 63% | 9 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 9 |
Angelo picks Kowalkiewicz, stating she is on a different level than Penne. He notes she was almost a champion and should win, though Penne can make it ugly by leaning on her. He mentions she has trained with a new team and expects her to piece up Penne.
Big Brady thinks both fighters are past their prime but favors Kowalkiewicz due to her higher volume and better striking. He notes Penne will want takedowns but Kowalkiewicz has solid takedown defense (75%) and trains with JJ. He worries about Penne controlling rounds if she gets takedowns, but ultimately picks Kowalkiewicz by decision.
Cody picks Kowalkiewicz but with hesitation. He notes her losing streak and potential motivation issues, but believes she is the more skilled fighter. He expects a close decision win.
Daniel Levi slightly leans Jessica Penne as the underdog, citing that both fighters are past their primes but Penne has been more active and showed some offensive output in her last fight. He notes that Karolina Kowalkiewicz has not been the same since her diagnosis and has taken a lot of damage. He believes Penne can win a split decision by taking the back or having top control, though he acknowledges Kowalkiewicz is better on the feet.
Kowalkiewicz should keep the fight on the feet and use her striking to outwork Penne. Penne needs to grapple to win, but Kowalkiewicz has good movement and should avoid the clinch. The striking difference is wide, and Kowalkiewicz may even get a TKO. She is coming back after a long layoff but has a favorable matchup. Decision is most likely, but a KO prop has value.
Paul does not make a clear pick. He acknowledges the narrative around Kowalkiewicz's motivation and Penne's hunger, but does not commit.
The MMA Guru picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz over Jessica Penne. He argues Kowalkiewicz has faced much better competition and is more technical, despite being older (35). He criticizes Penne's striking and notes she didn't deserve her last win. He predicts Kowalkiewicz will outstrike Penne to a 30-27 unanimous decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jessica Penne | 0 | 31 of 87 | 35% | 98 of 158 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 4:30 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 40 of 74 | 54% | 68 of 106 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jessica Penne | 0 | 15 of 40 | 37% | 27 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 13 of 31 | 41% | 22 of 41 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 | |
| 2 | Jessica Penne | 0 | 13 of 30 | 43% | 24 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:49 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 17 of 24 | 70% | 26 of 33 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 | |
| 3 | Jessica Penne | 0 | 3 of 17 | 17% | 47 of 61 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 20 of 32 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jessica Penne | 31 of 87 | 35% | 19 of 63 | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 29 of 82 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 40 of 74 | 54% | 31 of 63 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 37 of 68 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jessica Penne | 15 of 40 | 37% | 10 of 30 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 36 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 13 of 31 | 41% | 10 of 27 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 11 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 2 | |
| 2 | Jessica Penne | 13 of 30 | 43% | 7 of 20 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 17 of 24 | 70% | 14 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jessica Penne | 3 of 17 | 17% | 2 of 13 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 10 of 19 | 52% | 7 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Loopy Godinez to win by dominant decision. He notes that Penne is 38 years old, hasn't fought in nearly four years, and hasn't won in six years. He believes Godinez has a massive striking advantage and is strong enough to get back up if taken down. He expects Godinez to stuff takedowns and out-strike Penne. He does not see a finish likely as Godinez has no knockout wins and Penne is tough to submit. He considers Godinez a parlay piece but not in his own parlay.
Cody is very high on Godinez, praising her boxing, takedown defense, and cardio. He thinks Penne is old (38), has been out for years due to USADA, and has a history of getting hit and bleeding. He expects Godinez to keep the fight standing and win by decision or late TKO. He likes the third round finish prop at 16-1.
Daniel Levi picks Loopy Godinez, noting her crisp hands and toughness. He questions what happens if the fight goes to the mat, as Godinez's competition has been subpar, but believes she will piece up Jessica Penne on the feet. Levi mentions that Penne is nearing 40 and has been through a lot, including a USADA case, and that she has shown hesitancy in recent fights. He expects Godinez to win, possibly by knockout.
Manpreet picks Godinez by decision, but with hesitation due to Penne's long layoff and Godinez's unproven level. He believes Godinez's boxing and pressure will overwhelm Penne, who is 38 and has been away for four years. He expects Godinez to out-strike Penne over three rounds, though he notes Penne's submission threat if the fight goes to the ground.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Godinez has crisp boxing and power for 115 lbs. He thinks Penne's stand-up is marginal and she has been finished by elite fighters. He likes the under 2.5 rounds at +255 and Godinez by knockout. He is confident in Godinez winning.
The MMA Guru picks Loopy Godinez to win by close decision. He doubts Jessica Penne's dedication after a long layoff since 2017, suggesting she may not have been training. He notes Godinez has a decent amateur career and some good wins, though not amazing. He believes Penne's mind may not be in the fight at 38 years old.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danielle Taylor | 0 | 69 of 178 | 38% | 71 of 181 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Jessica Penne | 0 | 72 of 176 | 40% | 76 of 182 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Danielle Taylor | 0 | 19 of 54 | 35% | 19 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jessica Penne | 0 | 22 of 60 | 36% | 23 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Danielle Taylor | 0 | 31 of 72 | 43% | 31 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jessica Penne | 0 | 29 of 72 | 40% | 32 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Danielle Taylor | 0 | 19 of 52 | 36% | 21 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Jessica Penne | 0 | 21 of 44 | 47% | 21 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danielle Taylor | 69 of 178 | 38% | 37 of 136 | 31 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 55 of 159 | 14 of 19 | 0 of 0 |
| Jessica Penne | 72 of 176 | 40% | 43 of 141 | 11 of 14 | 18 of 21 | 67 of 167 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Danielle Taylor | 19 of 54 | 35% | 10 of 41 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jessica Penne | 22 of 60 | 36% | 14 of 50 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 8 | 21 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Danielle Taylor | 31 of 72 | 43% | 15 of 53 | 15 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 22 of 61 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Jessica Penne | 29 of 72 | 40% | 18 of 57 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 7 | 26 of 66 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Danielle Taylor | 19 of 52 | 36% | 12 of 42 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 46 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Jessica Penne | 21 of 44 | 47% | 11 of 34 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 27 of 91 | 29% | 28 of 92 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jessica Penne | 0 | 117 of 205 | 57% | 118 of 206 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 18 of 57 | 31% | 19 of 58 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jessica Penne | 0 | 64 of 107 | 59% | 65 of 108 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 9 of 34 | 26% | 9 of 34 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jessica Penne | 0 | 53 of 98 | 54% | 53 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 27 of 91 | 29% | 17 of 67 | 10 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 19 of 80 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Jessica Penne | 117 of 205 | 57% | 90 of 171 | 26 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 78 of 145 | 39 of 60 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 18 of 57 | 31% | 8 of 36 | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 46 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Jessica Penne | 64 of 107 | 59% | 50 of 90 | 13 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 49 of 87 | 15 of 20 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 9 of 34 | 26% | 9 of 31 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jessica Penne | 53 of 98 | 54% | 40 of 81 | 13 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 29 of 58 | 24 of 40 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joanna Jędrzejczyk | 0 | 126 of 204 | 61% | 162 of 247 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:46 |
| Jessica Penne | 0 | 25 of 88 | 28% | 28 of 91 | 0 of 11 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joanna Jędrzejczyk | 0 | 23 of 47 | 48% | 38 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
| Jessica Penne | 0 | 8 of 26 | 30% | 11 of 29 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 2 | Joanna Jędrzejczyk | 0 | 57 of 81 | 70% | 75 of 105 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Jessica Penne | 0 | 9 of 33 | 27% | 9 of 33 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 3 | Joanna Jędrzejczyk | 0 | 46 of 76 | 60% | 49 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Jessica Penne | 0 | 8 of 29 | 27% | 8 of 29 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joanna Jędrzejczyk | 126 of 204 | 61% | 81 of 155 | 18 of 22 | 27 of 27 | 96 of 160 | 24 of 35 | 6 of 9 |
| Jessica Penne | 25 of 88 | 28% | 13 of 69 | 7 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 24 of 85 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joanna Jędrzejczyk | 23 of 47 | 48% | 12 of 35 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 12 of 32 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 7 |
| Jessica Penne | 8 of 26 | 30% | 3 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Joanna Jędrzejczyk | 57 of 81 | 70% | 40 of 62 | 8 of 10 | 9 of 9 | 40 of 58 | 17 of 23 | 0 of 0 |
| Jessica Penne | 9 of 33 | 27% | 5 of 26 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Joanna Jędrzejczyk | 46 of 76 | 60% | 29 of 58 | 6 of 7 | 11 of 11 | 44 of 70 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 2 |
| Jessica Penne | 8 of 29 | 27% | 5 of 23 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Polastri | 0 | 137 of 253 | 54% | 142 of 261 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 72 of 192 | 37% | 75 of 196 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julia Polastri | 0 | 53 of 93 | 56% | 58 of 101 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 22 of 61 | 36% | 25 of 64 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Julia Polastri | 0 | 46 of 96 | 47% | 46 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 30 of 68 | 44% | 30 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 | |
| 3 | Julia Polastri | 0 | 38 of 64 | 59% | 38 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 20 of 63 | 31% | 20 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Polastri | 137 of 253 | 54% | 85 of 193 | 42 of 49 | 10 of 11 | 123 of 233 | 14 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 72 of 192 | 37% | 24 of 121 | 36 of 57 | 12 of 14 | 71 of 189 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julia Polastri | 53 of 93 | 56% | 31 of 67 | 17 of 20 | 5 of 6 | 43 of 80 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 22 of 61 | 36% | 7 of 40 | 13 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 21 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Julia Polastri | 46 of 96 | 47% | 29 of 79 | 14 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 42 of 89 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 30 of 68 | 44% | 7 of 32 | 16 of 29 | 7 of 7 | 30 of 66 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Julia Polastri | 38 of 64 | 59% | 25 of 47 | 11 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 38 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 20 of 63 | 31% | 10 of 49 | 7 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 20 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Polastri (-450), Kowalkiewicz (+350)
Round 1
Strawweights take center stage as the prelims roll on. With a 12-year youth advantage on her side, a win for Polastri (13-5, 1-2 UFC) would lead her to a .500 record in the Octagon while dumping Kowalkiewicz (16-9, 9-9 UFC) below that threshold. A chasm of high-level experience separates the two, but it is “Psycho” who will serve as a significant betting favorite. The two ladies will be joined in the cage by referee Marc Goddard, who clocks them in as they clap hands.
Kowalkiewicz takes right to the center of the cage, and as booming chants of “Uh Vai Morrer” rain down, Polastri flashes a wry grin. The ladies toss out low kicks, and Kowalkiewicz strings together a combination ending with a left hand. Polastri resets and pitches a leg kick, only for Kowalkiewicz to counter over the top. Kowalkiewicz rips a body kick in the midst of her strike combos, and Polastri is not a fan and fires back with one much heavier. The former title challenger grimaces from the strike to her midsection, and Polastri explodes into a flurry of punches and kicks. Kowalkiewicz protects herself against the wire, and she smiles when Polastri peels back. The smile quickly turns to a frown when Polastri drives a knee home to the body, but she is able to back off and shake it off. Kowalkiewicz throws a kick, changes stances and works the body. Kowalkiewicz slips a punch and connects with a right, and she takes a few on the chin to hit the Brazilian back.
Kowalkiewicz spins with a back fist, and it collides into the guard but she is not far enough away to avoid counters. Kowalkiewicz thinks about a trip takedown when catching one of Polastri’s kicks, but she lets the limb down where there is nothing to it. Polastri again tries to tie up the Polish woman, where she spams knees to what might be an already compromised midsection. Polastri goes over the top with an elbow, and she uses her weight to press Kowalkiewicz on the fencing. Kowalkiewicz gives her back a few knees and elbows to think about, forcing a break. Kowalkiewicz whiffs on the subsequent spinning back fist. A front kick from her does split the guard, and any cheers from her corner are completely drowned out from the chants of the crowd. They trade heavy blows while standing right in the pocket, with Polastri appearing to have the power advantage and the superior speed too. Kowalkiewicz feebly spins when under fire, and Polastri lays into her with an onslaught of punches that knock the former KSW fighter into the wall. As Polastri keeps connecting, the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Round 2
They clap hands again to start off the second stanza, and some swelling has developed under Kowalkiewicz’ right eye. She pays it no mind as Polastri comes right at her throwing caution to the wind. Kowalkiewicz tries to take her off her feet with a takedown attempt, but Polastri shuts it down and punches her square in the face. Kowalkiewicz meanders forward to grapple again, and Polastri’s intercepting knee and uppercut shut that down. Polastri senses that Kowalkiewicz is struggling, and she walks her foe down and beats on her relentlessly. Kowalkiewicz bounds off the fence to reset, and Polastri drops her hands and takes several deep breaths to get her wind back from going all-out. Kowalkiewicz is tough as nails, and she takes advantage of this opening with distant strikes. Once Polastri is ready to engage again, she raises her hands and cracks the Polish woman. Polastri fearlessly approaches her opponent, even with her energy reserves far from full, and she welcomes striking exchanges. Kowalkiewicz puts volume together as Polastri is looking for big power blows, and although Kowalkiewicz takes some on the chin, she evades the worst of the blows…until she doesn’t.
Totally unafraid of anything that comes back at her, Polastri connects with a flurry of punches and kicks that knock Kowalkiewicz back to the wall again. When Kowalkiewicz tries to get away, Polastri raises her arms in the air to further lather up the ravenous audience. Kowalkiewicz attempts a takedown, and Polastri takes longer to stop it but still manages to stonewall the former title challenger. Polastri flashes out a jab directly on the swollen cheek, and Kowalkiewicz kicks her back in the body. Polastri slaps her midsection, and she walks through the potshots of Kowalkiewicz to land heavy punches that bust open Kowalkiewicz’ nose. Kowalkiewicz spins with an elbow that bangs off the forehead, and Polastri energizes herself into one final assault before the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Round 3
After 10 minutes of action, the strawweights come together in the center of the cage to hug it out. Polastri lands a single power strike, and Kowalkiewicz lets her have it with a long, effective flurry of fists and feet. Kowalkiewicz swings and ducks away to evade counters, and Polastri is still sporadically swinging for the bleachers. Kowalkiewicz sticks her foe with a short right hand, and she stuns the Brazilian for a second with another scooping uppercut. Polastri steels herself and boots Kowalkiewicz upside the head, and that only spurs Kowalkiewicz into more activity with a lengthy stretch of punches. Polastri connects with a hard body shot, and Kowalkiewicz’ body language and expression changes. Polastri digs several more strikes to the torso, and Kowalkiewicz bends over to try to take some of the sting out of them and has to actually sprint away to fully reset. Polastri walks her down like a Terminator, and her punches have developed more swelling and damage on Kowalkiewicz’ face.
With a full head of steam, Polastri steps in with a booming head kick that shakes up the ex-title challenger. Putting Kowalkiewicz’ on ice skates, Polastri marches forward and delivers a ruthless combination of punches to the head and body that have Kowalkiewicz in all sorts of trouble. With a couple minute still left on the clock, Polastri is cognizant that she does not want to punch herself out, but she knows that Kowalkiewicz is in trouble.
“Psycho” lets loose with all of her remaining energy, busting up Kowalkiewicz further and knocking her head around like a speed bag. As Kowalkiewicz is barely on her feet, possibly because the cage is behind her, Goddard intervenes to save the Polish woman from her toughness.
The crowd goes wild for the first Brazilian tonight to beat a foreign opponent, and Polastri hands Kowalkiewicz her second knockout loss—the first came from the mighty fist of Jessica Andrade. That is good company to be in.
The Official Result
Julia Polastri def. Karolina Kowalkiewicz R3 2:56 via TKO (Head Kick and Punches)
Angelo leans towards Julia Polastri, citing her better striking, speed, and cleaner technique. He notes Karolina is too old and slowing down. However, he does not trust Julia enough at the current odds and prefers the over 2.5 rounds prop instead of the moneyline.
Big Brady picks Julia Polastri, citing her youth (27 vs 39), and being better everywhere: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He expects Polastri to come forward landing bigger shots and win a decision in Brazil. He acknowledges Karolina is tough and has decent volume, but believes Polastri's advantages are clear.
Cody picks Polastri but is not confident, noting Kowalkiewicz's experience and potential to make it close. He believes Polastri's youth and speed will be key, but expects a decision that could go either way. He suggests Polastri by decision.
Lucrative James is very confident in Julia Polastri, citing Karolina Kowalkiewicz's age (turning 40) and lack of improvement. He believes Polastri is the better striker and grappler, and expects her to dominate. He notes that Kowalkiewicz is a striker and won't be able to wrestle effectively. He sees a finish as likely, pointing to Polastri's submission skills and the poor odds on the under 2.5 rounds (+334) and KO (+900) as value. He picks Polastri confidently.
Manpreet is confident in Polastri, citing her youth, speed, and well-rounded game. He expects her to mix takedowns with striking and win a clear decision, as Kowalkiewicz is past her prime and on a losing streak. He doesn't mind the chalky odds.
Paul picks Polastri but is hesitant, calling it close to a 'CF dot model.' He notes Kowalkiewicz's age and 0-4 record against Brazilians, but expects a competitive decision. He suggests Polastri by decision.
The MMA Guru picks Julia Polastri over Karolina Kowalkiewicz, believing Kowalkiewicz is past her prime at nearly 40 and has looked poor recently. He notes Polastri has wins over decent competition and is fighting in Brazil. He predicts a decision win, likely 29-28.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denise Gomes | 0 | 46 of 98 | 46% | 61 of 115 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 73 of 144 | 50% | 91 of 166 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 5:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denise Gomes | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 22 of 36 | 61% | 32 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:11 | |
| 2 | Denise Gomes | 0 | 13 of 31 | 41% | 21 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 23 of 45 | 51% | 28 of 52 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:15 | |
| 3 | Denise Gomes | 0 | 26 of 51 | 50% | 29 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 28 of 63 | 44% | 31 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denise Gomes | 46 of 98 | 46% | 16 of 57 | 19 of 24 | 11 of 17 | 39 of 89 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 73 of 144 | 50% | 30 of 85 | 33 of 44 | 10 of 15 | 53 of 115 | 20 of 28 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denise Gomes | 7 of 16 | 43% | 0 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 22 of 36 | 61% | 8 of 17 | 12 of 15 | 2 of 4 | 12 of 25 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Denise Gomes | 13 of 31 | 41% | 5 of 19 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 23 of 45 | 51% | 9 of 24 | 9 of 15 | 5 of 6 | 18 of 36 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Denise Gomes | 26 of 51 | 50% | 11 of 33 | 10 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 48 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 28 of 63 | 44% | 13 of 44 | 12 of 14 | 3 of 5 | 23 of 54 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 1 |
Big Brady sees Gomes as much younger, more powerful, and with grappling upside. He believes she can win on the feet or via takedowns. Despite the -500 line, he thinks Gomes gets her hand raised, likely by decision.
Cody disagrees with Paul, arguing that Kowalkiewicz's wrestling is not good enough to exploit Gomes' weakness. He notes that even when opponents wrestle Gomes, she still lands significant strikes. Cody believes Gomes' youth, power, and speed will overwhelm the 39-year-old Kowalkiewicz, likely by decision or knockout.
Connor picks Kowalkiewicz, assuming Gomes doesn't knock her out immediately. He thinks Kowalkiewicz's experience and grappling advantage will take over as Gomes fades. He notes the odds are too wide in favor of Gomes, who he considers not good and prone to mistakes.
Daniel Vreeland picks Denise Gomes due to her youth, physicality, and momentum, contrasting with Karolina Kowalkiewicz's age (39) and decline. He notes Kowalkiewicz's past success but believes Gomes' power and aggressive style will be too much. However, he has zero interest in betting at -500 odds.
Lucrative James picks Denise Gomes to win by knockout, citing her heavy power and Karolina's declining career trajectory. He believes Gomes will be too physical and that Kowalkiewicz won't be able to implement her game plan of volume and grappling. He expects a brutal knockout.
Gomes is expected to control the striking with her power and possibly get some grappling success to win on the scorecards, similar to how Yasmin Lucindo beat Kowalkiewicz.
Paul is considering the underdog Kowalkiewicz at +390, noting that Gomes has shown takedown defense issues. He thinks if Kowalkiewicz can replicate her performance against Syana Gomez Warez, she could make it competitive. Paul admits it's a sucker bet but is tempted by the price.
The Guru picks Denise Gomes, expecting a brutal assault. He notes Kowalkiewicz's age (39) and her scared reaction when hit. He believes Gomes is a big, physical fighter for the division and will get a TKO win.
Zane picks Gomes but is hesitant. He notes that Gomes has power and can knock out Kowalkiewicz early, but if she doesn't, she runs out of ideas and makes mistakes. He acknowledges Kowalkiewicz's grappling and backtake game could be a threat, but thinks Gomes' youth and power give her the edge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 42 of 111 | 37% | 47 of 119 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 83 of 136 | 61% | 91 of 144 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 5:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 8 of 19 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 25 of 36 | 69% | 31 of 42 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:48 | |
| 2 | Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 26 of 61 | 42% | 26 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 38 of 72 | 52% | 38 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 9 of 32 | 28% | 13 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 20 of 28 | 71% | 22 of 30 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iasmin Lucindo | 42 of 111 | 37% | 17 of 73 | 15 of 22 | 10 of 16 | 40 of 108 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 83 of 136 | 61% | 53 of 100 | 23 of 28 | 7 of 8 | 57 of 105 | 13 of 18 | 13 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iasmin Lucindo | 7 of 18 | 38% | 4 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 25 of 36 | 69% | 18 of 28 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 17 | 9 of 12 | 7 of 7 | |
| 2 | Iasmin Lucindo | 26 of 61 | 42% | 9 of 38 | 11 of 13 | 6 of 10 | 26 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 38 of 72 | 52% | 23 of 53 | 13 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 37 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Iasmin Lucindo | 9 of 32 | 28% | 4 of 22 | 3 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 20 of 28 | 71% | 12 of 19 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 17 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 6 |
Angelo picks Lucindo due to her youth and grappling advantage, but warns the odds are too rich. He notes that if Lucindo can't get takedowns, she's clueless on the feet and Kowalkiewicz could run away with it. He advises caution.
Big Brady views Lucindo as a big step up in competition for Kowalkiewicz. He believes Lucindo is better everywhere, with power and takedown ability. He expects Lucindo to win a decision, controlling the fight wherever it goes.
Cody picks Lucindo, citing her youth, speed, wrestling advantage, and submission win. He notes Kowalkiewicz's recent wins are over lower-level competition and she's 38. Cody expects Lucindo to mix takedowns and win.
Daniel Vreeland picks Kowalkiewicz by decision, citing her experience, volume striking, durability, and strength of schedule. He notes that Lucindo is young and talented but has never faced someone with Kowalkiewicz's level. He mentions Kowalkiewicz's recent four-fight win streak and improved confidence. He considers the decision prop as a potential value play.
Lucindo is a 22-year-old at minus-400 odds, but stylistically she should be able to drag the fight into her realm with grappling and heavy top pressure. Kowalkiewicz has the striking advantage, but Lucindo has a great chin and ability to crash the pocket and change levels. Lucindo grinds out a decision win.
Paul picks Lucindo, emphasizing her speed, power, and wrestling. He notes Kowalkiewicz is on a four-fight win streak but against weak opposition, and her takedown defense is suspect. Paul sees Lucindo as the future and expects her to win.
The MMA Guru picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth (22) and power advantage over the 38-year-old Kowalkiewicz. He notes Lucindo's win over Poana Viana and her ability to inflict damage, while questioning Kowalkiewicz's recent level of competition. He believes Lucindo's physicality and aggression will be decisive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 141 of 267 | 52% | 155 of 283 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 2:15 |
| Diana Belbiţă | 0 | 99 of 261 | 37% | 108 of 270 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 39 of 74 | 52% | 41 of 78 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:12 |
| Diana Belbiţă | 0 | 35 of 83 | 42% | 41 of 89 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:13 | |
| 2 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 41 of 76 | 53% | 52 of 87 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Diana Belbiţă | 0 | 30 of 66 | 45% | 33 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 3 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 61 of 117 | 52% | 62 of 118 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Diana Belbiţă | 0 | 34 of 112 | 30% | 34 of 112 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 141 of 267 | 52% | 94 of 203 | 42 of 58 | 5 of 6 | 123 of 244 | 17 of 21 | 1 of 2 |
| Diana Belbiţă | 99 of 261 | 37% | 57 of 199 | 33 of 50 | 9 of 12 | 85 of 241 | 13 of 18 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 39 of 74 | 52% | 29 of 60 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 29 of 62 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Diana Belbiţă | 35 of 83 | 42% | 21 of 64 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 5 | 25 of 70 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 41 of 76 | 53% | 31 of 62 | 7 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 34 of 66 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 2 |
| Diana Belbiţă | 30 of 66 | 45% | 18 of 49 | 10 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 26 of 60 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 61 of 117 | 52% | 34 of 81 | 25 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 60 of 116 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Diana Belbiţă | 34 of 112 | 30% | 18 of 86 | 12 of 21 | 4 of 5 | 34 of 111 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz, noting her recent three-fight winning streak and that her previous losses came against elite competition. He believes Diana Belbiţă is a step down in competition and criticizes Belbiţă's losses to lower-tier fighters. He thinks Kowalkiewicz can have success with grappling, as Belbiţă has been taken down frequently. He predicts a decision win but is not in love with the price tag.
Cody picks Kowalkiewicz, citing her experience, resurgence, and superior grappling. He notes that Belbiţă has only fought low-level opponents and has poor takedown defense. Kowalkiewicz should be able to mix in takedowns and control the fight, likely winning a decision.
Daniel Levi leans Karolina Kowalkiewicz, citing her historical level and recent confidence boost from a three-fight win streak. He notes her improved grappling and high output in her last fight. However, he acknowledges she is 37 and has had inconsistent performances, and that Diana Belbiţă has good striking volume. He is not fully confident but picks Kowalkiewicz based on her overall career.
Lucrative James is confident in Belbiţă, having bet her at +160. He argues that the market overvalues skill-for-skill while ignoring intangibles: Belbiţă hits harder, is younger (37 vs prime), and has a reach and height advantage. He believes Kowalkiewicz has a magnet for 4-ounce gloves and will get knocked down or finished. He thinks the line should be a pick'em or Belbiţă favored.
Belbiţă is younger and has been improving, using volume striking and forward pressure. Kowalkiewicz is the more technical striker but has been inconsistent. If Belbiţă can keep the fight standing and avoid being controlled on the ground, her volume could sway the judges. She is worth a shot as an underdog, though Kowalkiewicz has more experience. Expect a decision win for Belbiţă.
Paul picks Kowalkiewicz, noting her ability to win via volume or grappling. He mentions Belbiţă's reach advantage but believes Kowalkiewicz's experience and takedown ability will be decisive. He likes the moneyline and also considers the decision prop.
The MMA Guru picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz over Diana Belbiţă, though not very confident. He notes Kowalkiewicz looked good in her last fight against Vanessa Demopoulos and is on a three-fight win streak after a long losing streak, building confidence. He dismisses Belbiţă's wins over Maria Oliveira and Molly McCann as unimpressive, and points out that Belbiţă was finished by an Instagram model. He believes Kowalkiewicz's momentum and better competition give her the edge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 139 of 237 | 58% | 148 of 249 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:52 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 68 of 221 | 30% | 83 of 237 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 42 of 84 | 50% | 42 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 28 of 71 | 39% | 36 of 79 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 55 of 82 | 67% | 56 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 22 of 86 | 25% | 22 of 86 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 42 of 71 | 59% | 50 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:29 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 18 of 64 | 28% | 25 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 139 of 237 | 58% | 94 of 187 | 30 of 33 | 15 of 17 | 134 of 230 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 68 of 221 | 30% | 49 of 190 | 13 of 23 | 6 of 8 | 65 of 216 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 42 of 84 | 50% | 33 of 73 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 37 of 77 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 28 of 71 | 39% | 20 of 62 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 66 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 55 of 82 | 67% | 30 of 55 | 16 of 17 | 9 of 10 | 55 of 82 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 22 of 86 | 25% | 13 of 71 | 7 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 86 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 42 of 71 | 59% | 31 of 59 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 42 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 18 of 64 | 28% | 16 of 57 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 2 | 18 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Vanessa Demopoulos because he thinks Karolina is aging out and didn't look good in her last fight, needing grappling to get a sketchy decision. He believes Vanessa is a solid grappler herself, sets a nice pace, and can hang with the striking. He expects Vanessa to outwork Karolina and win by decision.
Big Brady picks Vanessa Demopoulos as the underdog to submit Karolina Kowalkiewicz in the second round. He notes Demopoulos has improved her wrestling and has a dog mentality, while Kowalkiewicz is the better striker but has been inconsistent. He believes if Demopoulos can get takedowns, she can control and submit Kowalkiewicz. However, he admits he doesn't have a ton of confidence in the pick.
Cody believes Kowalkiewicz's striking and takedown defense will be enough to outpoint Demopoulos. He notes Demopoulos's grappling is a threat but Kowalkiewicz has faced high-level grapplers and should be able to keep the fight standing and win a decision.
Connor picks Kowalkiewicz, noting that she has shown signs of a renaissance in her last two fights, looking like she knows how her game works again. He highlights her surprisingly strong clinch and ground game, which could overwhelm Demopoulos. However, he acknowledges that Kowalkiewicz has been in dark places and her striking at range is not damaging, making this a hesitant pick.
Daniel Levi picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz, citing her experience and recent win. He believes Kowalkiewicz at her best is clearly ahead of Demopoulos, who is still developing. He acknowledges Demopoulos's grit and Jiu-Jitsu but thinks Kowalkiewicz's striking and veteran savvy will earn her a decision. He has a soft spot for Kowalkiewicz since she cashed a plus-215 underdog bet for him against Rose Namajunas.
The host picks Vanessa Demopoulos as an underdog, believing her BJJ black belt and strength in clinch and wrestling positions will allow her to take the fight to the ground. He thinks Kowalkiewicz's improved grappling confidence may get her into trouble. He predicts a submission win for Demopoulos, though notes if it stays standing, Kowalkiewicz has the advantage.
Paul is surprised by the line and sees value on Kowalkiewicz. He notes her experience and recent wins, and thinks Demopoulos's grappling is not at a level to trouble her. He expects Kowalkiewicz to win a clear decision.
The MMA Guru sides with Karolina Kowalkiewicz, believing she is more well-rounded and has better striking. He dismisses Vanessa Demopoulos as not very talented and suggests she has received gifted decisions due to promotability. He notes Kowalkiewicz's recent wins over Silvana Gomez Juarez and her competitive losses to top fighters. He expects Kowalkiewicz to outbox Demopoulos and win a decision.
Zane picks Demopoulos, believing she is a good athlete who is improving quickly and will keep showing up and surprising. He thinks Kowalkiewicz may get a round of dominant grappling but will have trouble controlling Demopoulos and putting a stamp on other rounds. Zane is not confident in Kowalkiewicz's current form and sees Demopoulos's athleticism and power as potential factors.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 74 of 202 | 36% | 90 of 230 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:03 |
| Silvana Gómez Juárez | 0 | 77 of 263 | 29% | 79 of 267 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 20 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:45 |
| Silvana Gómez Juárez | 0 | 6 of 31 | 19% | 7 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 31 of 86 | 36% | 31 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Silvana Gómez Juárez | 0 | 27 of 105 | 25% | 27 of 105 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 38 of 101 | 37% | 39 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Silvana Gómez Juárez | 0 | 44 of 127 | 34% | 45 of 130 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 74 of 202 | 36% | 55 of 170 | 13 of 25 | 6 of 7 | 71 of 198 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Silvana Gómez Juárez | 77 of 263 | 29% | 46 of 224 | 24 of 30 | 7 of 9 | 75 of 259 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 5 of 15 | 33% | 4 of 12 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Silvana Gómez Juárez | 6 of 31 | 19% | 3 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 31 of 86 | 36% | 21 of 71 | 8 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 30 of 85 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Silvana Gómez Juárez | 27 of 105 | 25% | 18 of 95 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 27 of 105 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 38 of 101 | 37% | 30 of 87 | 4 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 36 of 98 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Silvana Gómez Juárez | 44 of 127 | 34% | 25 of 102 | 15 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 42 of 123 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo acknowledges that Kowalkiewicz is the more technical striker, but he is swayed by Gómez Juárez's raw power and durability. He notes that both are 37 years old and that Kowalkiewicz's five-fight losing streak, even against top competition, is hard to ignore. He picks Gómez Juárez based on a gut feeling but encourages viewers to fade his pick and not bet on this fight because it is evenly matched.
Big Brady picks Silvana Gómez Juárez to win by first-round knockout. He notes Kowalkiewicz has looked awful in recent fights, absorbs many strikes, and has poor striking defense. He highlights Gómez Juárez's power, having dropped Vanessa Demopoulos and knocked out Liang Na. He doubts Kowalkiewicz will wrestle, as she has only two takedowns in her UFC career. He believes if it stays on the feet, Gómez Juárez will land a big shot and finish her.
Cody leans towards Gómez Juárez, noting that Kowalkiewicz has poor takedown accuracy and likely won't grapple, leading to a striking battle. He thinks Gómez Juárez has significant power and that Kowalkiewicz's chin may not hold up. However, he acknowledges that Gómez Juárez is one-dimensional and could be submitted if taken down, so he is not confident.
Connor picks Kowalkiewicz, noting that her win over Felice Herrig showed she still has the tools to win, even if she had to convince herself to absorb damage. He points out that Gómez Juárez is a one-dimensional striker with poor grappling, and Kowalkiewicz is a surprisingly good wrestler. Connor believes that if Kowalkiewicz can survive the early exchanges, she can take the fight to the ground and win.
Daniel Levi picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz, citing her experience, clinch work, and well-roundedness. He notes that Gómez Juárez has one-punch knockout power but is one-dimensional and hasn't faced this level of competition. Levi believes if Kowalkiewicz fights smart—using clinch, knees, and takedowns—she can win. He is concerned about her recent skid and durability but thinks she has a path to victory.
The host believes Kowalkiewicz has the technical striking advantage and superior Jiu-Jitsu, which she can use to drag the fight to the ground and potentially submit Juarez. He dismisses concerns about Kowalkiewicz's chin, noting she took hard shots from Yanan and didn't go down. He sees her as the better overall fighter and expects her to get her hand raised, possibly via submission.
Paul picks Kowalkiewicz, believing she is being disrespected. He notes that she is a more complete fighter and that Gómez Juárez is a one-trick pony with power but no backup plan. Paul thinks Kowalkiewicz's chin and heart have held up against elite competition, and that she can win by volume and experience. He sees the pick'em price as fair.
The MMA Guru picks Silvana Gómez Juárez, citing her nasty hands and quick boxing combos. He notes Kowalkiewicz's history of being KO'd and hurt, and her tendency to close her eyes when punching. He believes Gómez Juárez will land big boxing combos and get a quick win, possibly a first-round KO.
Zane picks Kowalkiewicz, emphasizing that Gómez Juárez is a clean puncher but has no grappling game and can be taken down easily. He notes that Kowalkiewicz's style relies on absorbing damage, but she has only been knocked out once. Zane also points out that Gómez Juárez's submission attempts are based on poor positional understanding, making her a liability on the ground.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 55 of 122 | 45% | 59 of 126 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Felice Herrig | 0 | 82 of 123 | 66% | 102 of 146 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 3:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 30 of 73 | 41% | 34 of 77 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Felice Herrig | 0 | 48 of 70 | 68% | 50 of 72 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 | |
| 2 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 25 of 49 | 51% | 25 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Felice Herrig | 0 | 34 of 53 | 64% | 52 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 1:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 55 of 122 | 45% | 34 of 92 | 20 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 49 of 116 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Felice Herrig | 82 of 123 | 66% | 54 of 94 | 23 of 24 | 5 of 5 | 57 of 96 | 17 of 18 | 8 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 30 of 73 | 41% | 15 of 50 | 15 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 25 of 68 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Felice Herrig | 48 of 70 | 68% | 30 of 51 | 15 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 34 of 55 | 14 of 15 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 25 of 49 | 51% | 19 of 42 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Felice Herrig | 34 of 53 | 64% | 24 of 43 | 8 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 41 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 9 |
Angelo calls this a coin flip fight with too many variables. He notes Karolina is the better fighter but looks like a shell of herself, while Felice is scrappy and well-rounded. He reluctantly picks Felice because he believes she still has passion, but advises not to bet on this fight.
Big Brady picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz to win by a very close decision. He thinks the fight will play out like their first fight, with Kowalkiewicz stuffing takedowns and out-striking Herrig. However, he is very hesitant because both fighters are on long losing streaks and he questions Kowalkiewicz's mindset after five straight losses. He calls it a 'complete mess' and an 'unbeatable fight' from a betting perspective.
Cody picks Kowalkiewicz, arguing that her losses came against elite competition while Herrig has been inactive. He notes Herrig's takedown-dependent style and thinks Kowalkiewicz can stuff takedowns and win on volume. He is hesitant due to both fighters' age and recent form.
Daniel Levi picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz as a slight underdog, noting she won their first fight and that both fighters are past their prime. He mentions Herrig's long layoff and focus on OnlyFans, while Kowalkiewicz has health issues. He calls it a 'dog or pass' fight and advises against betting, but leans toward Kowalkiewicz for the pick.
Paul picks Kowalkiewicz, noting her superior striking and takedown defense from their first fight. He acknowledges both fighters are washed but believes Kowalkiewicz's activity and training at ATT give her an edge. He is not confident due to women's MMA volatility.
The MMA Guru picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz but with clear disdain and low confidence. He calls the fight a 'sympathy bout' and questions why it's on the card. He notes Kowalkiewicz has good grappling defense and is scrappy, and she won the first fight, so he expects her to win again. However, he admits 'who knows' and seems to care little about the outcome.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jessica Penne | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 28 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 21 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jessica Penne | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 28 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 21 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jessica Penne | 8 of 12 | 66% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 12 of 19 | 63% | 9 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jessica Penne | 8 of 12 | 66% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 12 of 19 | 63% | 9 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 9 |
Angelo picks Kowalkiewicz, stating she is on a different level than Penne. He notes she was almost a champion and should win, though Penne can make it ugly by leaning on her. He mentions she has trained with a new team and expects her to piece up Penne.
Big Brady thinks both fighters are past their prime but favors Kowalkiewicz due to her higher volume and better striking. He notes Penne will want takedowns but Kowalkiewicz has solid takedown defense (75%) and trains with JJ. He worries about Penne controlling rounds if she gets takedowns, but ultimately picks Kowalkiewicz by decision.
Cody picks Kowalkiewicz but with hesitation. He notes her losing streak and potential motivation issues, but believes she is the more skilled fighter. He expects a close decision win.
Daniel Levi slightly leans Jessica Penne as the underdog, citing that both fighters are past their primes but Penne has been more active and showed some offensive output in her last fight. He notes that Karolina Kowalkiewicz has not been the same since her diagnosis and has taken a lot of damage. He believes Penne can win a split decision by taking the back or having top control, though he acknowledges Kowalkiewicz is better on the feet.
Kowalkiewicz should keep the fight on the feet and use her striking to outwork Penne. Penne needs to grapple to win, but Kowalkiewicz has good movement and should avoid the clinch. The striking difference is wide, and Kowalkiewicz may even get a TKO. She is coming back after a long layoff but has a favorable matchup. Decision is most likely, but a KO prop has value.
Paul does not make a clear pick. He acknowledges the narrative around Kowalkiewicz's motivation and Penne's hunger, but does not commit.
The MMA Guru picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz over Jessica Penne. He argues Kowalkiewicz has faced much better competition and is more technical, despite being older (35). He criticizes Penne's striking and notes she didn't deserve her last win. He predicts Kowalkiewicz will outstrike Penne to a 30-27 unanimous decision.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Kowalkiewicz, stating she is on a different level than Penne. He notes she was almost a champion and should win, though Penne can make it ugly by leaning on her. He mentions she has trained with a new team and expects her to piece up Penne.
Big Brady thinks both fighters are past their prime but favors Kowalkiewicz due to her higher volume and better striking. He notes Penne will want takedowns but Kowalkiewicz has solid takedown defense (75%) and trains with JJ. He worries about Penne controlling rounds if she gets takedowns, but ultimately picks Kowalkiewicz by decision.
Cody picks Kowalkiewicz but with hesitation. He notes her losing streak and potential motivation issues, but believes she is the more skilled fighter. He expects a close decision win.
Daniel Levi slightly leans Jessica Penne as the underdog, citing that both fighters are past their primes but Penne has been more active and showed some offensive output in her last fight. He notes that Karolina Kowalkiewicz has not been the same since her diagnosis and has taken a lot of damage. He believes Penne can win a split decision by taking the back or having top control, though he acknowledges Kowalkiewicz is better on the feet.
Kowalkiewicz should keep the fight on the feet and use her striking to outwork Penne. Penne needs to grapple to win, but Kowalkiewicz has good movement and should avoid the clinch. The striking difference is wide, and Kowalkiewicz may even get a TKO. She is coming back after a long layoff but has a favorable matchup. Decision is most likely, but a KO prop has value.
Paul does not make a clear pick. He acknowledges the narrative around Kowalkiewicz's motivation and Penne's hunger, but does not commit.
The MMA Guru picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz over Jessica Penne. He argues Kowalkiewicz has faced much better competition and is more technical, despite being older (35). He criticizes Penne's striking and notes she didn't deserve her last win. He predicts Kowalkiewicz will outstrike Penne to a 30-27 unanimous decision.
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