UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Aug 07, 2021 · Women's Strawweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane Next Fight
Age 43
Height 5' 5"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 40
Height 5' 3"
Reach 64.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Jessica Penne
2.63 SLpM
33.0% Str. Acc.
5.05 SApM
45.0% Str. Def.
1.29 TD Avg
18.0% TD Acc.
36.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Karolina Kowalkiewicz
5.54 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
5.77 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.36 TD Avg
23.0% TD Acc.
74.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Jessica Penne
Moneyline
FanDuel +134
KO/TKO
DraftKings +1500
Submission
FanDuel +700
Decision
DraftKings +200
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Moneyline
BetWay -133
KO/TKO
DraftKings +1100
Submission
FanDuel +2000
Decision
FanDuel +120
Jessica Penne - Fight History
LOSS vs Elise Reed
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Oct 19, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Elise Reed 0 54 of 125 43% 98 of 174 1 of 13 7% 0 0 3:16
Jessica Penne 0 117 of 188 62% 229 of 306 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Elise Reed 0 19 of 33 57% 51 of 70 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:49
Jessica Penne 0 6 of 17 35% 105 of 122 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Elise Reed 0 18 of 42 42% 26 of 50 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:27
Jessica Penne 0 44 of 70 62% 56 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
3 Elise Reed 0 17 of 50 34% 21 of 54 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 67 of 101 66% 68 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Elise Reed 54 of 125 43% 26 of 89 18 of 25 10 of 11 44 of 112 10 of 13 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 117 of 188 62% 84 of 145 18 of 19 15 of 24 110 of 181 7 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Elise Reed 19 of 33 57% 7 of 20 9 of 9 3 of 4 14 of 28 5 of 5 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 6 of 17 35% 0 of 10 2 of 2 4 of 5 5 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Elise Reed 18 of 42 42% 7 of 28 5 of 8 6 of 6 14 of 37 4 of 5 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 44 of 70 62% 31 of 50 8 of 8 5 of 12 39 of 65 5 of 5 0 of 0
3 Elise Reed 17 of 50 34% 12 of 41 4 of 8 1 of 1 16 of 47 1 of 3 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 67 of 101 66% 53 of 85 8 of 9 6 of 7 66 of 100 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Elise Reed

Angelo picks Elise Reed because he believes Jessica Penne, at 41 years old and coming off a disinterested performance, is not fully committed to fighting anymore. He notes Reed's busy striking, good cardio, and inconsistency but thinks she is the hungrier fighter. He sees value at -150 and also likes the over 2.5 rounds as a safe bet. He speculates Penne is more focused on her post-fighting career and won't have the same drive.

over 2.5 rounds
"Elise Reed wins this fight she's the pick minus 150 seems like decent value"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jessica Penne

Big Brady picks Jessica Penne by first-round submission. He highlights Reed's terrible ground game, with four submission losses, and Penne's BJJ black belt. He notes Penne is 41 and coming off a layoff, but if she gets the fight to the mat, she will submit Reed. He is surprised Reed is favored.

first round submission
"I'll take the dog here and Jessica pen to get the fight down to the ground and get a sub in the first round so Jessica pen a first round submission"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 18, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Elise Reed

Connor picks Reed, though he doesn't feel good about it. He notes that Reed has natural power and can crack, and that she has been able to win fights despite her flaws. He acknowledges that Reed often stops fighting after hurting opponents, but thinks she might be able to knock Penne out or do enough to win.

"I think I would pick Reed in this one."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 21, 2026 (fight day)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Elise Reed

Reed is a striker and can keep the fight upright enough to batter Penne and win on the scorecards. However, Penne winning by submission at +500 is a tempting sprinkle, as it could take just one back take or takedown for Penne to utilize her jiu-jitsu advantage. The official prediction is Reed by decision.

Penne by submission at +500 (sprinkle)
"I do lean with the striker as I do think Reed can keep this fight upright enough for her to batter a pen and win this fight on the scorecards although a pen to win by submission at plus 500 …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 15, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jessica Penne

The Guru initially does not want to pick Jessica Penne due to her age (41) and recent losses, but after considering that Elise Reed is 'garbage' and Penne is taller and rangier, he decides to take the underdog. He admits he doesn't normally check odds beforehand but notes Penne is an underdog and goes with her.

"I'm gonna go with Jessica pen we move on"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 18, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jessica Penne

Zane picks Penne because he believes Reed will not be consistent enough to keep Penne at range. He notes that Reed has a tendency to stop fighting after landing a big shot, and that Penne is hittable and predictable, but Reed doesn't have the footwork to stay away. He thinks Penne will eventually tangle up with Reed and get the grappling exchange she wants.

Penne opened at +137, now +152; Reed opened at -153, now -172. Zane says you should not be betting on Elise Reed.
"I think I will take Penne actually."
LOSS vs Tabatha Ricci
Submission (armbar) R2 2:14 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tabatha Ricci 0 6 of 25 24% 19 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 36 of 54 66% 81 of 109 4 of 5 80% 1 0 5:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tabatha Ricci 0 3 of 13 23% 14 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 26 of 39 66% 62 of 83 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:54
2 Tabatha Ricci 0 3 of 12 25% 5 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 10 of 15 66% 19 of 26 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tabatha Ricci 6 of 25 24% 4 of 20 2 of 4 0 of 1 4 of 23 1 of 1 1 of 1
Jessica Penne 36 of 54 66% 19 of 35 2 of 2 15 of 17 15 of 32 2 of 2 19 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tabatha Ricci 3 of 13 23% 2 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jessica Penne 26 of 39 66% 13 of 26 1 of 1 12 of 12 9 of 22 1 of 1 16 of 16
2 Tabatha Ricci 3 of 12 25% 2 of 8 1 of 3 0 of 1 2 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 10 of 15 66% 6 of 9 1 of 1 3 of 5 6 of 10 1 of 1 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Angelo is confident in Tabatha Ricci, citing her strong grappling, top pressure, and submission skills. He notes that Jessica Penne has only 40% takedown defense and that Ricci should dominate with her wrestling. Angelo bet 1.5 units on Ricci at -240.

"Tabitha Ricci is a very good Grappler always looking for submissions she doesn't sacrifice position or chase either she's very heavy on top good pressure good control"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Big Brady picks Tabatha Ricci, noting her ability to dictate where the fight takes place with her wrestling and judo. He mentions Penne's poor takedown defense (40%) and that Ricci can safely grapple without getting caught in submissions. He predicts a decision win for Ricci, with the fight primarily on the mat.

"I'm gonna take Richie to win this fight I'm gonna take her to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Cody picks Ricci, citing her youth, judo, and well-rounded game. He thinks Penne is too old and has been off for four years. He expects Ricci to win by decision or submission.

Tabatha Ricci by decision
"tab the reach you have to reach you by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Connor picks Tabatha Ricci, though he is not confident. He notes that Ricci is a high-level BJJ black belt and will likely take the fight to the ground, where Penne is actually good. However, he thinks Ricci's aggression and functional grappling will allow her to win positions and avoid being submitted. Connor admits the fight is hard to analyze and could go either way.

"I guess I got to take Ricci because I just don't see the fact that she's gonna go into the only place where penne is actually good as like a death sentence for her."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Jacob agrees with Angelo, comparing this fight to Ricci's previous win over Polyana Viana. He believes Penne is a step down in competition and that Ricci will dominate with her pressure and top control. Jacob is fully confident in Ricci.

"I think that this is going to be honestly a carbon copy of that Pollyanna Vienna fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Ricci is a high-level BJJ black belt with good wrestling and control time. Penne is 40, has poor striking, and relies on dragging fights to the ground, but Ricci will likely be on top and avoid submissions. Ricci grinds out a decision victory.

"I think this is a great stylistic matchup for Tabitha Richie... I think penny is more than likely going to be fighting off of her back for the majority of this matchup and I just don't think it's going to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Ricci. He notes the line has moved from -175 to -325, indicating sharp money. He thinks Ricci's grappling and youth will be too much for Penne.

"they've tightened up that number to stay away from maybe Richie's to pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

The MMA Guru picks Tabatha Ricci, citing Jessica Penne's age (40) and Ricci's grappling advantage. He expects Ricci to control top position and win a split decision, noting that women's MMA judging often favors control time.

"I'm gonna trust in taba for Richie... I think she's going to be able to get down Jessica Penney and sort of like ride out top position."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Zane also picks Ricci, agreeing that her functional aggression and grappling will be enough to overcome Penne's awkward style. He notes that Penne's striking is robotic and she struggles with range, while Ricci will close the distance and make it a grappling match. Zane thinks Ricci's speed and confidence give her an edge, but he is not fully convinced.

"I think I'll pick Ricci too just because I think she's gonna fight with you know a functional aggression that will get her into good positions."
LOSS vs Emily Ducote
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Emily Ducote 0 63 of 244 25% 68 of 249 0 of 8 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 116 of 205 56% 117 of 206 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Emily Ducote 0 17 of 67 25% 20 of 70 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 35 of 58 60% 35 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Emily Ducote 0 26 of 88 29% 28 of 90 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 37 of 73 50% 38 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Emily Ducote 0 20 of 89 22% 20 of 89 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 44 of 74 59% 44 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Emily Ducote 63 of 244 25% 37 of 208 26 of 36 0 of 0 55 of 234 8 of 10 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 116 of 205 56% 41 of 113 24 of 34 51 of 58 115 of 203 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Emily Ducote 17 of 67 25% 13 of 61 4 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 65 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 35 of 58 60% 13 of 33 10 of 12 12 of 13 35 of 57 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Emily Ducote 26 of 88 29% 14 of 72 12 of 16 0 of 0 20 of 80 6 of 8 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 37 of 73 50% 17 of 49 6 of 10 14 of 14 36 of 72 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Emily Ducote 20 of 89 22% 10 of 75 10 of 14 0 of 0 20 of 89 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 44 of 74 59% 11 of 31 8 of 12 25 of 31 44 of 74 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Angelo picks Emily Ducote but is hesitant due to a five-week trend of underdogs winning the first fight of the night. He notes Ducote's patient, accurate striking and wrestling, but acknowledges Penne's experience and the risk of a bad decision. He advises against betting on this fight.

advises not to bet on this fight
"emily's the pick but jessica has proven she can beat some really tough women she's going to be live in this fight and that stupid underdog winning the opening fight nonsense"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Big Brady picks Emily Ducote to win by decision. He notes that Ducote is 11 years younger, has good takedown defense, and should be the better striker on the feet. He thinks she can stuff Penne's takedowns and outpoint her for three rounds. He warns that if Penne gets the fight to the mat, she could submit Ducote, but he expects Ducote to keep it standing.

"give me to cody to win give me dakota to stop the takedowns and ultimately pick apart jessica penney for a three-round decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Cody is confident in Ducote, citing her wrestling background, BJJ black belt, and well-rounded game. He notes that Penne is 39 and relies on takedowns, but Ducote has the grappling to defend and the striking to win on the feet. He believes Ducote has multiple paths to victory and is a good price at -150.

Jessica Penne under 1.5 takedowns
"emily decodey could be a too good to be true price tag in this fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Daniel Levi leans Emily Ducote, noting she is experienced and has paid her dues. He expects a close fight where Ducote lands better strikes and gets top control, but must be careful of Penne's submissions. He sees it as a dog-or-pass situation and predicts a close decision.

close decision; dog-or-pass
"i'll lean do cody you know edge it out split unanimous whatever close fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Paul also picks Ducote, agreeing that she is the better fighter in all aspects. He notes her youth, experience, and recent improvements. He believes Penne's magic is running out and that Ducote will win, possibly by decision or TKO.

Jessica Penne under 1.5 takedowns
"i think emily decodey could be a too good to be true price tag in this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

The MMA Guru picks Emily Ducote over Jessica Penne, citing Ducote's power as a key advantage in the women's division. He notes that Ducote finished Danielle Taylor, who beat Penne by decision, and that Penne doesn't know how to fight. He acknowledges the unpredictability of women's MMA but sides with Ducote's power, believing it will impact judges' scorecards even if she is outlanded.

"i'm going to be going with emily de cote here in the early prelim opener i reckon she'll get this one done by 2928 decision over jessica penney"
Submission (armbar) R1 4:32 · UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Aug 07, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jessica Penne 0 8 of 12 66% 28 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:26
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 12 of 19 63% 21 of 30 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jessica Penne 0 8 of 12 66% 28 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:26
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 12 of 19 63% 21 of 30 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jessica Penne 8 of 12 66% 3 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 5 4 of 7 0 of 0 4 of 5
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 12 of 19 63% 9 of 16 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 8 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jessica Penne 8 of 12 66% 3 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 5 4 of 7 0 of 0 4 of 5
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 12 of 19 63% 9 of 16 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 8 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2021 (fight day)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Angelo picks Kowalkiewicz, stating she is on a different level than Penne. He notes she was almost a champion and should win, though Penne can make it ugly by leaning on her. He mentions she has trained with a new team and expects her to piece up Penne.

"Carolina is gonna put an absolute whooping on Penne... she's on a completely different level."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 3, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Big Brady thinks both fighters are past their prime but favors Kowalkiewicz due to her higher volume and better striking. He notes Penne will want takedowns but Kowalkiewicz has solid takedown defense (75%) and trains with JJ. He worries about Penne controlling rounds if she gets takedowns, but ultimately picks Kowalkiewicz by decision.

"I'm gonna take Carolina here I think it's a solid matchup for her."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Cody picks Kowalkiewicz but with hesitation. He notes her losing streak and potential motivation issues, but believes she is the more skilled fighter. He expects a close decision win.

fight goes to decision
"i will go with karolina kovakiewicz but whereas it should be just like let's hammer this baby home it's like there's buyer beware now"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 6, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jessica Penne

Daniel Levi slightly leans Jessica Penne as the underdog, citing that both fighters are past their primes but Penne has been more active and showed some offensive output in her last fight. He notes that Karolina Kowalkiewicz has not been the same since her diagnosis and has taken a lot of damage. He believes Penne can win a split decision by taking the back or having top control, though he acknowledges Kowalkiewicz is better on the feet.

"I'll actually slightly lean towards the dog Jessica Penne"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Kowalkiewicz should keep the fight on the feet and use her striking to outwork Penne. Penne needs to grapple to win, but Kowalkiewicz has good movement and should avoid the clinch. The striking difference is wide, and Kowalkiewicz may even get a TKO. She is coming back after a long layoff but has a favorable matchup. Decision is most likely, but a KO prop has value.

Kowalkiewicz by KO/TKO +900; Kowalkiewicz by decision +120
"I do like Carolina here I think she gets a victory out for you know after uh her extended layoff um decision is probably the most likely outcome."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick. He acknowledges the narrative around Kowalkiewicz's motivation and Penne's hunger, but does not commit.

TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

The MMA Guru picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz over Jessica Penne. He argues Kowalkiewicz has faced much better competition and is more technical, despite being older (35). He criticizes Penne's striking and notes she didn't deserve her last win. He predicts Kowalkiewicz will outstrike Penne to a 30-27 unanimous decision.

"i'm going to go with karolina kovalkovic way more experienced way better technically and i think she'll just outstrike jessica penney to a 30-27 unanimous decision win"
WIN vs Loopy Godinez
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · Apr 17, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jessica Penne 0 31 of 87 35% 98 of 158 1 of 7 14% 0 0 4:30
Loopy Godinez 0 40 of 74 54% 68 of 106 3 of 9 33% 0 0 4:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jessica Penne 0 15 of 40 37% 27 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:43
Loopy Godinez 0 13 of 31 41% 22 of 41 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:38
2 Jessica Penne 0 13 of 30 43% 24 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:49
Loopy Godinez 0 17 of 24 70% 26 of 33 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:06
3 Jessica Penne 0 3 of 17 17% 47 of 61 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:58
Loopy Godinez 0 10 of 19 52% 20 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jessica Penne 31 of 87 35% 19 of 63 12 of 24 0 of 0 29 of 82 2 of 5 0 of 0
Loopy Godinez 40 of 74 54% 31 of 63 7 of 8 2 of 3 37 of 68 3 of 4 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jessica Penne 15 of 40 37% 10 of 30 5 of 10 0 of 0 13 of 36 2 of 4 0 of 0
Loopy Godinez 13 of 31 41% 10 of 27 3 of 3 0 of 1 11 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 2
2 Jessica Penne 13 of 30 43% 7 of 20 6 of 10 0 of 0 13 of 29 0 of 1 0 of 0
Loopy Godinez 17 of 24 70% 14 of 20 2 of 3 1 of 1 17 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jessica Penne 3 of 17 17% 2 of 13 1 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Loopy Godinez 10 of 19 52% 7 of 16 2 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 15, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Big Brady picks Loopy Godinez to win by dominant decision. He notes that Penne is 38 years old, hasn't fought in nearly four years, and hasn't won in six years. He believes Godinez has a massive striking advantage and is strong enough to get back up if taken down. He expects Godinez to stuff takedowns and out-strike Penne. He does not see a finish likely as Godinez has no knockout wins and Penne is tough to submit. He considers Godinez a parlay piece but not in his own parlay.

Considered as parlay piece but not used
"i'm gonna take gadina's here to win a pretty dominant decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Cody is very high on Godinez, praising her boxing, takedown defense, and cardio. He thinks Penne is old (38), has been out for years due to USADA, and has a history of getting hit and bleeding. He expects Godinez to keep the fight standing and win by decision or late TKO. He likes the third round finish prop at 16-1.

Godinez by TKO in round 3 at 16-1, Godinez by knockout
"i think godinez and she's one of your biggest favorites on the card i actually do agree with it"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Daniel Levi picks Loopy Godinez, noting her crisp hands and toughness. He questions what happens if the fight goes to the mat, as Godinez's competition has been subpar, but believes she will piece up Jessica Penne on the feet. Levi mentions that Penne is nearing 40 and has been through a lot, including a USADA case, and that she has shown hesitancy in recent fights. He expects Godinez to win, possibly by knockout.

possible knockout
"i got lupita for sure"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 16, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Manpreet picks Godinez by decision, but with hesitation due to Penne's long layoff and Godinez's unproven level. He believes Godinez's boxing and pressure will overwhelm Penne, who is 38 and has been away for four years. He expects Godinez to out-strike Penne over three rounds, though he notes Penne's submission threat if the fight goes to the ground.

Godinez by decision -115; Godinez by finish in round 3 +1500
"i let godena is here not with the utmost confidence though because i want to see her prove herself against girls that are you know not lindsey garbett and not vanessa demopolis"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Godinez has crisp boxing and power for 115 lbs. He thinks Penne's stand-up is marginal and she has been finished by elite fighters. He likes the under 2.5 rounds at +255 and Godinez by knockout. He is confident in Godinez winning.

under 2.5 rounds at +255, Godinez by knockout
"i wouldn't be surprised to see lupita godness knock out uh penne"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

The MMA Guru picks Loopy Godinez to win by close decision. He doubts Jessica Penne's dedication after a long layoff since 2017, suggesting she may not have been training. He notes Godinez has a decent amateur career and some good wins, though not amazing. He believes Penne's mind may not be in the fight at 38 years old.

"i'm going to go of the new wave of talent in lupita gordina's loopy herself i think she'll get the job done by close decision 29 28"
LOSS vs Danielle Taylor
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · Apr 22, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Danielle Taylor 0 69 of 178 38% 71 of 181 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:29
Jessica Penne 0 72 of 176 40% 76 of 182 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Danielle Taylor 0 19 of 54 35% 19 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 22 of 60 36% 23 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Danielle Taylor 0 31 of 72 43% 31 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 29 of 72 40% 32 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Danielle Taylor 0 19 of 52 36% 21 of 55 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:29
Jessica Penne 0 21 of 44 47% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Danielle Taylor 69 of 178 38% 37 of 136 31 of 40 1 of 2 55 of 159 14 of 19 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 72 of 176 40% 43 of 141 11 of 14 18 of 21 67 of 167 5 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Danielle Taylor 19 of 54 35% 10 of 41 9 of 13 0 of 0 18 of 52 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 22 of 60 36% 14 of 50 2 of 2 6 of 8 21 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Danielle Taylor 31 of 72 43% 15 of 53 15 of 17 1 of 2 22 of 61 9 of 11 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 29 of 72 40% 18 of 57 5 of 8 6 of 7 26 of 66 3 of 6 0 of 0
3 Danielle Taylor 19 of 52 36% 12 of 42 7 of 10 0 of 0 15 of 46 4 of 6 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 21 of 44 47% 11 of 34 4 of 4 6 of 6 20 of 42 1 of 2 0 of 0
TKO (punches) R2 2:56 · UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · Jun 04, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jéssica Andrade 0 27 of 91 29% 28 of 92 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 117 of 205 57% 118 of 206 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jéssica Andrade 0 18 of 57 31% 19 of 58 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 64 of 107 59% 65 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
2 Jéssica Andrade 0 9 of 34 26% 9 of 34 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 53 of 98 54% 53 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jéssica Andrade 27 of 91 29% 17 of 67 10 of 23 0 of 1 19 of 80 8 of 11 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 117 of 205 57% 90 of 171 26 of 33 1 of 1 78 of 145 39 of 60 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jéssica Andrade 18 of 57 31% 8 of 36 10 of 21 0 of 0 10 of 46 8 of 11 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 64 of 107 59% 50 of 90 13 of 16 1 of 1 49 of 87 15 of 20 0 of 0
2 Jéssica Andrade 9 of 34 26% 9 of 31 0 of 2 0 of 1 9 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 53 of 98 54% 40 of 81 13 of 17 0 of 0 29 of 58 24 of 40 0 of 0
TKO (punches and knee) R3 4:22 · UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs. Penne · Jun 20, 2015
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 126 of 204 61% 162 of 247 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:46
Jessica Penne 0 25 of 88 28% 28 of 91 0 of 11 0% 0 0 2:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 23 of 47 48% 38 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:00
Jessica Penne 0 8 of 26 30% 11 of 29 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:39
2 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 57 of 81 70% 75 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
Jessica Penne 0 9 of 33 27% 9 of 33 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:25
3 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 46 of 76 60% 49 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Jessica Penne 0 8 of 29 27% 8 of 29 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 126 of 204 61% 81 of 155 18 of 22 27 of 27 96 of 160 24 of 35 6 of 9
Jessica Penne 25 of 88 28% 13 of 69 7 of 14 5 of 5 24 of 85 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 23 of 47 48% 12 of 35 4 of 5 7 of 7 12 of 32 5 of 8 6 of 7
Jessica Penne 8 of 26 30% 3 of 20 3 of 4 2 of 2 7 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 57 of 81 70% 40 of 62 8 of 10 9 of 9 40 of 58 17 of 23 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 9 of 33 27% 5 of 26 2 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 32 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 46 of 76 60% 29 of 58 6 of 7 11 of 11 44 of 70 2 of 4 0 of 2
Jessica Penne 8 of 29 27% 5 of 23 2 of 5 1 of 1 8 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz - Fight History
LOSS vs Julia Polastri
KO R3 2:56 · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Oct 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julia Polastri 0 137 of 253 54% 142 of 261 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:46
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 72 of 192 37% 75 of 196 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julia Polastri 0 53 of 93 56% 58 of 101 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:46
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 22 of 61 36% 25 of 64 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Julia Polastri 0 46 of 96 47% 46 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 30 of 68 44% 30 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:31
3 Julia Polastri 0 38 of 64 59% 38 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 20 of 63 31% 20 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julia Polastri 137 of 253 54% 85 of 193 42 of 49 10 of 11 123 of 233 14 of 20 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 72 of 192 37% 24 of 121 36 of 57 12 of 14 71 of 189 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julia Polastri 53 of 93 56% 31 of 67 17 of 20 5 of 6 43 of 80 10 of 13 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 22 of 61 36% 7 of 40 13 of 18 2 of 3 21 of 60 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Julia Polastri 46 of 96 47% 29 of 79 14 of 14 3 of 3 42 of 89 4 of 7 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 30 of 68 44% 7 of 32 16 of 29 7 of 7 30 of 66 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Julia Polastri 38 of 64 59% 25 of 47 11 of 15 2 of 2 38 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 20 of 63 31% 10 of 49 7 of 10 3 of 4 20 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Julia Polastri
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Polastri (-450), Kowalkiewicz (+350)

Round 1
Strawweights take center stage as the prelims roll on. With a 12-year youth advantage on her side, a win for Polastri (13-5, 1-2 UFC) would lead her to a .500 record in the Octagon while dumping Kowalkiewicz (16-9, 9-9 UFC) below that threshold. A chasm of high-level experience separates the two, but it is “Psycho” who will serve as a significant betting favorite. The two ladies will be joined in the cage by referee Marc Goddard, who clocks them in as they clap hands.
Kowalkiewicz takes right to the center of the cage, and as booming chants of “Uh Vai Morrer” rain down, Polastri flashes a wry grin. The ladies toss out low kicks, and Kowalkiewicz strings together a combination ending with a left hand. Polastri resets and pitches a leg kick, only for Kowalkiewicz to counter over the top. Kowalkiewicz rips a body kick in the midst of her strike combos, and Polastri is not a fan and fires back with one much heavier. The former title challenger grimaces from the strike to her midsection, and Polastri explodes into a flurry of punches and kicks. Kowalkiewicz protects herself against the wire, and she smiles when Polastri peels back. The smile quickly turns to a frown when Polastri drives a knee home to the body, but she is able to back off and shake it off. Kowalkiewicz throws a kick, changes stances and works the body. Kowalkiewicz slips a punch and connects with a right, and she takes a few on the chin to hit the Brazilian back.
Kowalkiewicz spins with a back fist, and it collides into the guard but she is not far enough away to avoid counters. Kowalkiewicz thinks about a trip takedown when catching one of Polastri’s kicks, but she lets the limb down where there is nothing to it. Polastri again tries to tie up the Polish woman, where she spams knees to what might be an already compromised midsection. Polastri goes over the top with an elbow, and she uses her weight to press Kowalkiewicz on the fencing. Kowalkiewicz gives her back a few knees and elbows to think about, forcing a break. Kowalkiewicz whiffs on the subsequent spinning back fist. A front kick from her does split the guard, and any cheers from her corner are completely drowned out from the chants of the crowd. They trade heavy blows while standing right in the pocket, with Polastri appearing to have the power advantage and the superior speed too. Kowalkiewicz feebly spins when under fire, and Polastri lays into her with an onslaught of punches that knock the former KSW fighter into the wall. As Polastri keeps connecting, the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Polastri

Round 2
They clap hands again to start off the second stanza, and some swelling has developed under Kowalkiewicz’ right eye. She pays it no mind as Polastri comes right at her throwing caution to the wind. Kowalkiewicz tries to take her off her feet with a takedown attempt, but Polastri shuts it down and punches her square in the face. Kowalkiewicz meanders forward to grapple again, and Polastri’s intercepting knee and uppercut shut that down. Polastri senses that Kowalkiewicz is struggling, and she walks her foe down and beats on her relentlessly. Kowalkiewicz bounds off the fence to reset, and Polastri drops her hands and takes several deep breaths to get her wind back from going all-out. Kowalkiewicz is tough as nails, and she takes advantage of this opening with distant strikes. Once Polastri is ready to engage again, she raises her hands and cracks the Polish woman. Polastri fearlessly approaches her opponent, even with her energy reserves far from full, and she welcomes striking exchanges. Kowalkiewicz puts volume together as Polastri is looking for big power blows, and although Kowalkiewicz takes some on the chin, she evades the worst of the blows…until she doesn’t.
Totally unafraid of anything that comes back at her, Polastri connects with a flurry of punches and kicks that knock Kowalkiewicz back to the wall again. When Kowalkiewicz tries to get away, Polastri raises her arms in the air to further lather up the ravenous audience. Kowalkiewicz attempts a takedown, and Polastri takes longer to stop it but still manages to stonewall the former title challenger. Polastri flashes out a jab directly on the swollen cheek, and Kowalkiewicz kicks her back in the body. Polastri slaps her midsection, and she walks through the potshots of Kowalkiewicz to land heavy punches that bust open Kowalkiewicz’ nose. Kowalkiewicz spins with an elbow that bangs off the forehead, and Polastri energizes herself into one final assault before the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Polastri

Round 3
After 10 minutes of action, the strawweights come together in the center of the cage to hug it out. Polastri lands a single power strike, and Kowalkiewicz lets her have it with a long, effective flurry of fists and feet. Kowalkiewicz swings and ducks away to evade counters, and Polastri is still sporadically swinging for the bleachers. Kowalkiewicz sticks her foe with a short right hand, and she stuns the Brazilian for a second with another scooping uppercut. Polastri steels herself and boots Kowalkiewicz upside the head, and that only spurs Kowalkiewicz into more activity with a lengthy stretch of punches. Polastri connects with a hard body shot, and Kowalkiewicz’ body language and expression changes. Polastri digs several more strikes to the torso, and Kowalkiewicz bends over to try to take some of the sting out of them and has to actually sprint away to fully reset. Polastri walks her down like a Terminator, and her punches have developed more swelling and damage on Kowalkiewicz’ face.
With a full head of steam, Polastri steps in with a booming head kick that shakes up the ex-title challenger. Putting Kowalkiewicz’ on ice skates, Polastri marches forward and delivers a ruthless combination of punches to the head and body that have Kowalkiewicz in all sorts of trouble. With a couple minute still left on the clock, Polastri is cognizant that she does not want to punch herself out, but she knows that Kowalkiewicz is in trouble.
“Psycho” lets loose with all of her remaining energy, busting up Kowalkiewicz further and knocking her head around like a speed bag. As Kowalkiewicz is barely on her feet, possibly because the cage is behind her, Goddard intervenes to save the Polish woman from her toughness.
The crowd goes wild for the first Brazilian tonight to beat a foreign opponent, and Polastri hands Kowalkiewicz her second knockout loss—the first came from the mighty fist of Jessica Andrade. That is good company to be in.

The Official Result
Julia Polastri def. Karolina Kowalkiewicz R3 2:56 via TKO (Head Kick and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Julia Polastri

Angelo leans towards Julia Polastri, citing her better striking, speed, and cleaner technique. He notes Karolina is too old and slowing down. However, he does not trust Julia enough at the current odds and prefers the over 2.5 rounds prop instead of the moneyline.

over 2.5 rounds
"I think Julia's a better striker. I think she's faster. She's cleaner. Because of that, I think she wins here. I do not trust her enough at these odds. But the over two and a half is good as gold."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Julia Polastri

Big Brady picks Julia Polastri, citing her youth (27 vs 39), and being better everywhere: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He expects Polastri to come forward landing bigger shots and win a decision in Brazil. He acknowledges Karolina is tough and has decent volume, but believes Polastri's advantages are clear.

"Pastri, I think she's just better everywhere, you know, especially at the both stages of their career."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Julia Polastri

Cody picks Polastri but is not confident, noting Kowalkiewicz's experience and potential to make it close. He believes Polastri's youth and speed will be key, but expects a decision that could go either way. He suggests Polastri by decision.

decision
"I just can't pick Karolina but I will fully admit this is a lot closer to the CF dot model."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Julia Polastri

Lucrative James is very confident in Julia Polastri, citing Karolina Kowalkiewicz's age (turning 40) and lack of improvement. He believes Polastri is the better striker and grappler, and expects her to dominate. He notes that Kowalkiewicz is a striker and won't be able to wrestle effectively. He sees a finish as likely, pointing to Polastri's submission skills and the poor odds on the under 2.5 rounds (+334) and KO (+900) as value. He picks Polastri confidently.

under 2.5 rounds (+334), Julia Polastri by KO (+900), Julia Polastri by submission (+450)
"I side with the big favorite in this fight, boys. I side with Julia Palestri."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Julia Polastri

Manpreet is confident in Polastri, citing her youth, speed, and well-rounded game. He expects her to mix takedowns with striking and win a clear decision, as Kowalkiewicz is past her prime and on a losing streak. He doesn't mind the chalky odds.

Polastri by decision
"I don't mind Palatstri at chalky odds here. She's just in a far better place than Kowalkiewicz is in her career."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Julia Polastri

Paul picks Polastri but is hesitant, calling it close to a 'CF dot model.' He notes Kowalkiewicz's age and 0-4 record against Brazilians, but expects a competitive decision. He suggests Polastri by decision.

decision
"I did end up taking her because with Karolina, if it wasn't the end her last fight, I think it's going to be the end this one."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Julia Polastri

The MMA Guru picks Julia Polastri over Karolina Kowalkiewicz, believing Kowalkiewicz is past her prime at nearly 40 and has looked poor recently. He notes Polastri has wins over decent competition and is fighting in Brazil. He predicts a decision win, likely 29-28.

over 2.5 total rounds (for prize picks)
"I'm going to trust in Julia Palastri to get this one done by decision. Maybe 30-27, maybe 2928."
LOSS vs Denise Gomes
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · Nov 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Denise Gomes 0 46 of 98 46% 61 of 115 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:02
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 73 of 144 50% 91 of 166 0 of 3 0% 1 0 5:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Denise Gomes 0 7 of 16 43% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 22 of 36 61% 32 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:11
2 Denise Gomes 0 13 of 31 41% 21 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 23 of 45 51% 28 of 52 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:15
3 Denise Gomes 0 26 of 51 50% 29 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 28 of 63 44% 31 of 68 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Denise Gomes 46 of 98 46% 16 of 57 19 of 24 11 of 17 39 of 89 7 of 9 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 73 of 144 50% 30 of 85 33 of 44 10 of 15 53 of 115 20 of 28 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Denise Gomes 7 of 16 43% 0 of 5 5 of 5 2 of 6 4 of 12 3 of 4 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 22 of 36 61% 8 of 17 12 of 15 2 of 4 12 of 25 10 of 11 0 of 0
2 Denise Gomes 13 of 31 41% 5 of 19 4 of 6 4 of 6 12 of 29 1 of 2 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 23 of 45 51% 9 of 24 9 of 15 5 of 6 18 of 36 5 of 9 0 of 0
3 Denise Gomes 26 of 51 50% 11 of 33 10 of 13 5 of 5 23 of 48 3 of 3 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 28 of 63 44% 13 of 44 12 of 14 3 of 5 23 of 54 5 of 8 0 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Big Brady sees Gomes as much younger, more powerful, and with grappling upside. He believes she can win on the feet or via takedowns. Despite the -500 line, he thinks Gomes gets her hand raised, likely by decision.

Gomes by decision
"give me GES here minus 500 it's absolutely ridiculous but at the end of the day I think she gets her hand raised and I think it's by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Cody disagrees with Paul, arguing that Kowalkiewicz's wrestling is not good enough to exploit Gomes' weakness. He notes that even when opponents wrestle Gomes, she still lands significant strikes. Cody believes Gomes' youth, power, and speed will overwhelm the 39-year-old Kowalkiewicz, likely by decision or knockout.

"I actually think that Denise Gomez probably knocks her out might knock her out but more than likely just wins a 29-28 fairly comfortably."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Connor picks Kowalkiewicz, assuming Gomes doesn't knock her out immediately. He thinks Kowalkiewicz's experience and grappling advantage will take over as Gomes fades. He notes the odds are too wide in favor of Gomes, who he considers not good and prone to mistakes.

Odds too wide; Gomes should not be such a heavy favorite.
"I'll take Kovalkiewicz and the assumption that Gomes doesn't knock her out immediately."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Daniel Vreeland picks Denise Gomes due to her youth, physicality, and momentum, contrasting with Karolina Kowalkiewicz's age (39) and decline. He notes Kowalkiewicz's past success but believes Gomes' power and aggressive style will be too much. However, he has zero interest in betting at -500 odds.

"I'm going with Denise, the age, the physicality, the momentum on her side, but I have zero interest in laying minus 500 on her."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Lucrative James picks Denise Gomes to win by knockout, citing her heavy power and Karolina's declining career trajectory. He believes Gomes will be too physical and that Kowalkiewicz won't be able to implement her game plan of volume and grappling. He expects a brutal knockout.

by KO
"I'm picking Denise Gomez here and I think she gets a knockout potentially a brutal knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Denise Gomes

Gomes is expected to control the striking with her power and possibly get some grappling success to win on the scorecards, similar to how Yasmin Lucindo beat Kowalkiewicz.

"look for Gomez to control the Striking round with the power that she possesses but maybe even get some grappling success of her own to get some control time and win this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Paul is considering the underdog Kowalkiewicz at +390, noting that Gomes has shown takedown defense issues. He thinks if Kowalkiewicz can replicate her performance against Syana Gomez Warez, she could make it competitive. Paul admits it's a sucker bet but is tempted by the price.

"Karolina plus 390 is in consideration for me this week Cody and it's gross."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

The Guru picks Denise Gomes, expecting a brutal assault. He notes Kowalkiewicz's age (39) and her scared reaction when hit. He believes Gomes is a big, physical fighter for the division and will get a TKO win.

TKO win
"I'm going with Denise Gomez getting this one done over kolina kovalovich by TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Zane picks Gomes but is hesitant. He notes that Gomes has power and can knock out Kowalkiewicz early, but if she doesn't, she runs out of ideas and makes mistakes. He acknowledges Kowalkiewicz's grappling and backtake game could be a threat, but thinks Gomes' youth and power give her the edge.

"I think I'm going to pick Gomes though, still."
LOSS vs Iasmin Lucindo
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Iasmin Lucindo 0 42 of 111 37% 47 of 119 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 83 of 136 61% 91 of 144 2 of 6 33% 0 0 5:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Iasmin Lucindo 0 7 of 18 38% 8 of 19 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 25 of 36 69% 31 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:48
2 Iasmin Lucindo 0 26 of 61 42% 26 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 38 of 72 52% 38 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Iasmin Lucindo 0 9 of 32 28% 13 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 20 of 28 71% 22 of 30 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Iasmin Lucindo 42 of 111 37% 17 of 73 15 of 22 10 of 16 40 of 108 2 of 3 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 83 of 136 61% 53 of 100 23 of 28 7 of 8 57 of 105 13 of 18 13 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Iasmin Lucindo 7 of 18 38% 4 of 13 1 of 1 2 of 4 5 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 25 of 36 69% 18 of 28 6 of 7 1 of 1 9 of 17 9 of 12 7 of 7
2 Iasmin Lucindo 26 of 61 42% 9 of 38 11 of 13 6 of 10 26 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 38 of 72 52% 23 of 53 13 of 16 2 of 3 37 of 71 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Iasmin Lucindo 9 of 32 28% 4 of 22 3 of 8 2 of 2 9 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 20 of 28 71% 12 of 19 4 of 5 4 of 4 11 of 17 3 of 5 6 of 6
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Angelo picks Lucindo due to her youth and grappling advantage, but warns the odds are too rich. He notes that if Lucindo can't get takedowns, she's clueless on the feet and Kowalkiewicz could run away with it. He advises caution.

Angelo says 'the minus 330 odds they're just a little too rich for my blood'
"eisan lucendo is the pick but please be careful"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Big Brady views Lucindo as a big step up in competition for Kowalkiewicz. He believes Lucindo is better everywhere, with power and takedown ability. He expects Lucindo to win a decision, controlling the fight wherever it goes.

"I'm going to go decision for Lucindo."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Cody picks Lucindo, citing her youth, speed, wrestling advantage, and submission win. He notes Kowalkiewicz's recent wins are over lower-level competition and she's 38. Cody expects Lucindo to mix takedowns and win.

"I think lucendo can win on the feet but yeah mix in those takedowns..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Daniel Vreeland picks Kowalkiewicz by decision, citing her experience, volume striking, durability, and strength of schedule. He notes that Lucindo is young and talented but has never faced someone with Kowalkiewicz's level. He mentions Kowalkiewicz's recent four-fight win streak and improved confidence. He considers the decision prop as a potential value play.

Kowalkiewicz by decision
"I'm gonna go out on a limb I'm not confident but I'mma pick kolina kovak kavich"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Lucindo is a 22-year-old at minus-400 odds, but stylistically she should be able to drag the fight into her realm with grappling and heavy top pressure. Kowalkiewicz has the striking advantage, but Lucindo has a great chin and ability to crash the pocket and change levels. Lucindo grinds out a decision win.

minus-400 odds
"look for lucino to utilize her grappling to grind out kovok kavich over 15 minutes to get her hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Paul picks Lucindo, emphasizing her speed, power, and wrestling. He notes Kowalkiewicz is on a four-fight win streak but against weak opposition, and her takedown defense is suspect. Paul sees Lucindo as the future and expects her to win.

"Gotta go Lucindo... young hot Brazilian prospect in Brazil who's got legitimate skills..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

The MMA Guru picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth (22) and power advantage over the 38-year-old Kowalkiewicz. He notes Lucindo's win over Poana Viana and her ability to inflict damage, while questioning Kowalkiewicz's recent level of competition. He believes Lucindo's physicality and aggression will be decisive.

"Yasmin lendo wins"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · Oct 07, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 141 of 267 52% 155 of 283 1 of 6 16% 0 1 2:15
Diana Belbiţă 0 99 of 261 37% 108 of 270 2 of 2 100% 0 1 0:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 39 of 74 52% 41 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:12
Diana Belbiţă 0 35 of 83 42% 41 of 89 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:13
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 41 of 76 53% 52 of 87 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:46
Diana Belbiţă 0 30 of 66 45% 33 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:40
3 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 61 of 117 52% 62 of 118 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Diana Belbiţă 0 34 of 112 30% 34 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 141 of 267 52% 94 of 203 42 of 58 5 of 6 123 of 244 17 of 21 1 of 2
Diana Belbiţă 99 of 261 37% 57 of 199 33 of 50 9 of 12 85 of 241 13 of 18 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 39 of 74 52% 29 of 60 10 of 14 0 of 0 29 of 62 10 of 12 0 of 0
Diana Belbiţă 35 of 83 42% 21 of 64 11 of 14 3 of 5 25 of 70 10 of 13 0 of 0
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 41 of 76 53% 31 of 62 7 of 11 3 of 3 34 of 66 6 of 8 1 of 2
Diana Belbiţă 30 of 66 45% 18 of 49 10 of 15 2 of 2 26 of 60 3 of 4 1 of 2
3 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 61 of 117 52% 34 of 81 25 of 33 2 of 3 60 of 116 1 of 1 0 of 0
Diana Belbiţă 34 of 112 30% 18 of 86 12 of 21 4 of 5 34 of 111 0 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Big Brady picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz, noting her recent three-fight winning streak and that her previous losses came against elite competition. He believes Diana Belbiţă is a step down in competition and criticizes Belbiţă's losses to lower-tier fighters. He thinks Kowalkiewicz can have success with grappling, as Belbiţă has been taken down frequently. He predicts a decision win but is not in love with the price tag.

decision win for Karolina Kowalkiewicz
"give me Carolina kovak cavich to win this fight I'll take her to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Cody picks Kowalkiewicz, citing her experience, resurgence, and superior grappling. He notes that Belbiţă has only fought low-level opponents and has poor takedown defense. Kowalkiewicz should be able to mix in takedowns and control the fight, likely winning a decision.

Kowalkiewicz by decision
"I gotta go with Carolyn colvikovich all day... that really does come down to the back class"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Daniel Levi leans Karolina Kowalkiewicz, citing her historical level and recent confidence boost from a three-fight win streak. He notes her improved grappling and high output in her last fight. However, he acknowledges she is 37 and has had inconsistent performances, and that Diana Belbiţă has good striking volume. He is not fully confident but picks Kowalkiewicz based on her overall career.

"I'm gonna go Carolina because I think historically she's always been the better fighter"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2023 (fight day)
Diana Belbiţă

Lucrative James is confident in Belbiţă, having bet her at +160. He argues that the market overvalues skill-for-skill while ignoring intangibles: Belbiţă hits harder, is younger (37 vs prime), and has a reach and height advantage. He believes Kowalkiewicz has a magnet for 4-ounce gloves and will get knocked down or finished. He thinks the line should be a pick'em or Belbiţă favored.

bet at +160, line should be -120 or so
"I bet Diana B at plus 160 about a week ago now she's plus 120 or something... I think this fight should be a pick him if not Bel beat a favorite"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 6, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Diana Belbiţă

Belbiţă is younger and has been improving, using volume striking and forward pressure. Kowalkiewicz is the more technical striker but has been inconsistent. If Belbiţă can keep the fight standing and avoid being controlled on the ground, her volume could sway the judges. She is worth a shot as an underdog, though Kowalkiewicz has more experience. Expect a decision win for Belbiţă.

"give me a shot on the underdog here in belza and I think she picks up her win... by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Paul picks Kowalkiewicz, noting her ability to win via volume or grappling. He mentions Belbiţă's reach advantage but believes Kowalkiewicz's experience and takedown ability will be decisive. He likes the moneyline and also considers the decision prop.

Kowalkiewicz by decision
"I like Carolina... Carolina by decision is probably that's Plus 105... I think the money lines just fine as it is minus 160"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

The MMA Guru picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz over Diana Belbiţă, though not very confident. He notes Kowalkiewicz looked good in her last fight against Vanessa Demopoulos and is on a three-fight win streak after a long losing streak, building confidence. He dismisses Belbiţă's wins over Maria Oliveira and Molly McCann as unimpressive, and points out that Belbiţă was finished by an Instagram model. He believes Kowalkiewicz's momentum and better competition give her the edge.

"I'm gonna go with Carolina kovalkovich over to Yahoo beta not the most confident but I think I'm all right with this one"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · May 20, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 139 of 237 58% 148 of 249 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:52
Vanessa Demopoulos 0 68 of 221 30% 83 of 237 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 42 of 84 50% 42 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Vanessa Demopoulos 0 28 of 71 39% 36 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 55 of 82 67% 56 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vanessa Demopoulos 0 22 of 86 25% 22 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 42 of 71 59% 50 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:29
Vanessa Demopoulos 0 18 of 64 28% 25 of 72 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 139 of 237 58% 94 of 187 30 of 33 15 of 17 134 of 230 5 of 7 0 of 0
Vanessa Demopoulos 68 of 221 30% 49 of 190 13 of 23 6 of 8 65 of 216 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 42 of 84 50% 33 of 73 7 of 8 2 of 3 37 of 77 5 of 7 0 of 0
Vanessa Demopoulos 28 of 71 39% 20 of 62 4 of 5 4 of 4 25 of 66 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 55 of 82 67% 30 of 55 16 of 17 9 of 10 55 of 82 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vanessa Demopoulos 22 of 86 25% 13 of 71 7 of 13 2 of 2 22 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 42 of 71 59% 31 of 59 7 of 8 4 of 4 42 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vanessa Demopoulos 18 of 64 28% 16 of 57 2 of 5 0 of 2 18 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 14, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Vanessa Demopoulos

Angelo picks Vanessa Demopoulos because he thinks Karolina is aging out and didn't look good in her last fight, needing grappling to get a sketchy decision. He believes Vanessa is a solid grappler herself, sets a nice pace, and can hang with the striking. He expects Vanessa to outwork Karolina and win by decision.

Bet on over 2.5 rounds (round line)
"I like Vanessa to win this fight she probably wins by decision but these are the fights right these are the fights where the veteran can sort of take advantage of the situation"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 12, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Vanessa Demopoulos

Big Brady picks Vanessa Demopoulos as the underdog to submit Karolina Kowalkiewicz in the second round. He notes Demopoulos has improved her wrestling and has a dog mentality, while Kowalkiewicz is the better striker but has been inconsistent. He believes if Demopoulos can get takedowns, she can control and submit Kowalkiewicz. However, he admits he doesn't have a ton of confidence in the pick.

submission in round 2
"I'm going to take Demopolis as the dog here I'm gonna say she goes out there and gets Carolina down to the man and submits her in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Cody believes Kowalkiewicz's striking and takedown defense will be enough to outpoint Demopoulos. He notes Demopoulos's grappling is a threat but Kowalkiewicz has faced high-level grapplers and should be able to keep the fight standing and win a decision.

"I too will take care of the cavage."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 19, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Connor picks Kowalkiewicz, noting that she has shown signs of a renaissance in her last two fights, looking like she knows how her game works again. He highlights her surprisingly strong clinch and ground game, which could overwhelm Demopoulos. However, he acknowledges that Kowalkiewicz has been in dark places and her striking at range is not damaging, making this a hesitant pick.

"I'm riding with Kovalkavers. I think Demopolis is going to be one of those fighters that like I was just totally coming in..."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Daniel Levi picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz, citing her experience and recent win. He believes Kowalkiewicz at her best is clearly ahead of Demopoulos, who is still developing. He acknowledges Demopoulos's grit and Jiu-Jitsu but thinks Kowalkiewicz's striking and veteran savvy will earn her a decision. He has a soft spot for Kowalkiewicz since she cashed a plus-215 underdog bet for him against Rose Namajunas.

Kowalkiewicz by decision
"I'm still gonna go with Carolina because I like the fact that she got back on track"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 15, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Vanessa Demopoulos

The host picks Vanessa Demopoulos as an underdog, believing her BJJ black belt and strength in clinch and wrestling positions will allow her to take the fight to the ground. He thinks Kowalkiewicz's improved grappling confidence may get her into trouble. He predicts a submission win for Demopoulos, though notes if it stays standing, Kowalkiewicz has the advantage.

submission
"give me the underdog here give me Vanessa Demopolis and I think she wins this fight by submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Paul is surprised by the line and sees value on Kowalkiewicz. He notes her experience and recent wins, and thinks Demopoulos's grappling is not at a level to trouble her. He expects Kowalkiewicz to win a clear decision.

"Caroline is the pick for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

The MMA Guru sides with Karolina Kowalkiewicz, believing she is more well-rounded and has better striking. He dismisses Vanessa Demopoulos as not very talented and suggests she has received gifted decisions due to promotability. He notes Kowalkiewicz's recent wins over Silvana Gomez Juarez and her competitive losses to top fighters. He expects Kowalkiewicz to outbox Demopoulos and win a decision.

"I'm gonna go with Carolina ... I think she's gonna get this one done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked May 19, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Vanessa Demopoulos

Zane picks Demopoulos, believing she is a good athlete who is improving quickly and will keep showing up and surprising. He thinks Kowalkiewicz may get a round of dominant grappling but will have trouble controlling Demopoulos and putting a stamp on other rounds. Zane is not confident in Kowalkiewicz's current form and sees Demopoulos's athleticism and power as potential factors.

"I'm going to take Demopolis. I think she's just going to keep showing up and surprising."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 74 of 202 36% 90 of 230 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:03
Silvana Gómez Juárez 0 77 of 263 29% 79 of 267 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 5 of 15 33% 20 of 41 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:45
Silvana Gómez Juárez 0 6 of 31 19% 7 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 31 of 86 36% 31 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Silvana Gómez Juárez 0 27 of 105 25% 27 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 38 of 101 37% 39 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Silvana Gómez Juárez 0 44 of 127 34% 45 of 130 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 74 of 202 36% 55 of 170 13 of 25 6 of 7 71 of 198 3 of 4 0 of 0
Silvana Gómez Juárez 77 of 263 29% 46 of 224 24 of 30 7 of 9 75 of 259 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 5 of 15 33% 4 of 12 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Silvana Gómez Juárez 6 of 31 19% 3 of 27 2 of 2 1 of 2 6 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 31 of 86 36% 21 of 71 8 of 13 2 of 2 30 of 85 1 of 1 0 of 0
Silvana Gómez Juárez 27 of 105 25% 18 of 95 7 of 8 2 of 2 27 of 105 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 38 of 101 37% 30 of 87 4 of 9 4 of 5 36 of 98 2 of 3 0 of 0
Silvana Gómez Juárez 44 of 127 34% 25 of 102 15 of 20 4 of 5 42 of 123 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Silvana Gómez Juárez

Angelo acknowledges that Kowalkiewicz is the more technical striker, but he is swayed by Gómez Juárez's raw power and durability. He notes that both are 37 years old and that Kowalkiewicz's five-fight losing streak, even against top competition, is hard to ignore. He picks Gómez Juárez based on a gut feeling but encourages viewers to fade his pick and not bet on this fight because it is evenly matched.

"the pick here is going to be Gomez Juarez I encourage you to fade this pick don't bet on this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Silvana Gómez Juárez

Big Brady picks Silvana Gómez Juárez to win by first-round knockout. He notes Kowalkiewicz has looked awful in recent fights, absorbs many strikes, and has poor striking defense. He highlights Gómez Juárez's power, having dropped Vanessa Demopoulos and knocked out Liang Na. He doubts Kowalkiewicz will wrestle, as she has only two takedowns in her UFC career. He believes if it stays on the feet, Gómez Juárez will land a big shot and finish her.

Gómez Juárez by KO in round 1
"give me Juarez to win or as to win by first round KO"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Silvana Gómez Juárez

Cody leans towards Gómez Juárez, noting that Kowalkiewicz has poor takedown accuracy and likely won't grapple, leading to a striking battle. He thinks Gómez Juárez has significant power and that Kowalkiewicz's chin may not hold up. However, he acknowledges that Gómez Juárez is one-dimensional and could be submitted if taken down, so he is not confident.

"I'm gonna go with a slight lean towards uh Silvana Juarez actually the other way."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Connor picks Kowalkiewicz, noting that her win over Felice Herrig showed she still has the tools to win, even if she had to convince herself to absorb damage. He points out that Gómez Juárez is a one-dimensional striker with poor grappling, and Kowalkiewicz is a surprisingly good wrestler. Connor believes that if Kowalkiewicz can survive the early exchanges, she can take the fight to the ground and win.

"I got to take Cola Cabbage to get the win here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Daniel Levi picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz, citing her experience, clinch work, and well-roundedness. He notes that Gómez Juárez has one-punch knockout power but is one-dimensional and hasn't faced this level of competition. Levi believes if Kowalkiewicz fights smart—using clinch, knees, and takedowns—she can win. He is concerned about her recent skid and durability but thinks she has a path to victory.

"I think Carolina's the more well uh more well-rounded fighter and I'll pick her for that reason"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

The host believes Kowalkiewicz has the technical striking advantage and superior Jiu-Jitsu, which she can use to drag the fight to the ground and potentially submit Juarez. He dismisses concerns about Kowalkiewicz's chin, noting she took hard shots from Yanan and didn't go down. He sees her as the better overall fighter and expects her to get her hand raised, possibly via submission.

"I do like Carolina here I don't mind the line that she's currently at around that pick him spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Paul picks Kowalkiewicz, believing she is being disrespected. He notes that she is a more complete fighter and that Gómez Juárez is a one-trick pony with power but no backup plan. Paul thinks Kowalkiewicz's chin and heart have held up against elite competition, and that she can win by volume and experience. He sees the pick'em price as fair.

"Carolina kovalkovich... I think she's kind of getting disrespected I think she's a much more complete fighter... Carolina for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Silvana Gómez Juárez

The MMA Guru picks Silvana Gómez Juárez, citing her nasty hands and quick boxing combos. He notes Kowalkiewicz's history of being KO'd and hurt, and her tendency to close her eyes when punching. He believes Gómez Juárez will land big boxing combos and get a quick win, possibly a first-round KO.

"I'm going with silver Silvana Gomez Suarez she's got nasty hands"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Zane picks Kowalkiewicz, emphasizing that Gómez Juárez is a clean puncher but has no grappling game and can be taken down easily. He notes that Kowalkiewicz's style relies on absorbing damage, but she has only been knocked out once. Zane also points out that Gómez Juárez's submission attempts are based on poor positional understanding, making her a liability on the ground.

"I think that's a very fortunate out for Cola Cabbage if things do start to get messy."
WIN vs Felice Herrig
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 4:01 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Jun 04, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 55 of 122 45% 59 of 126 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Felice Herrig 0 82 of 123 66% 102 of 146 0 of 2 0% 2 0 3:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 30 of 73 41% 34 of 77 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Felice Herrig 0 48 of 70 68% 50 of 72 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:16
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 25 of 49 51% 25 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Felice Herrig 0 34 of 53 64% 52 of 74 0 of 0 --- 2 0 1:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 55 of 122 45% 34 of 92 20 of 28 1 of 2 49 of 116 6 of 6 0 of 0
Felice Herrig 82 of 123 66% 54 of 94 23 of 24 5 of 5 57 of 96 17 of 18 8 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 30 of 73 41% 15 of 50 15 of 22 0 of 1 25 of 68 5 of 5 0 of 0
Felice Herrig 48 of 70 68% 30 of 51 15 of 16 3 of 3 34 of 55 14 of 15 0 of 0
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 25 of 49 51% 19 of 42 5 of 6 1 of 1 24 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
Felice Herrig 34 of 53 64% 24 of 43 8 of 8 2 of 2 23 of 41 3 of 3 8 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked May 29, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Felice Herrig

Angelo calls this a coin flip fight with too many variables. He notes Karolina is the better fighter but looks like a shell of herself, while Felice is scrappy and well-rounded. He reluctantly picks Felice because he believes she still has passion, but advises not to bet on this fight.

advises not to bet on this fight
"honestly i don't want to pick it i don't want to bet it there's too many variables to work on here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Big Brady picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz to win by a very close decision. He thinks the fight will play out like their first fight, with Kowalkiewicz stuffing takedowns and out-striking Herrig. However, he is very hesitant because both fighters are on long losing streaks and he questions Kowalkiewicz's mindset after five straight losses. He calls it a 'complete mess' and an 'unbeatable fight' from a betting perspective.

"give me carolina to win i'll say she stuffed the takedowns and out strikes felice herrig"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Cody picks Kowalkiewicz, arguing that her losses came against elite competition while Herrig has been inactive. He notes Herrig's takedown-dependent style and thinks Kowalkiewicz can stuff takedowns and win on volume. He is hesitant due to both fighters' age and recent form.

"i'll go with carolina but i don't know if i can put money my hard-earned dollars on karolina kovalkovic in the year 2022."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 2, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Daniel Levi picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz as a slight underdog, noting she won their first fight and that both fighters are past their prime. He mentions Herrig's long layoff and focus on OnlyFans, while Kowalkiewicz has health issues. He calls it a 'dog or pass' fight and advises against betting, but leans toward Kowalkiewicz for the pick.

"i'll go with the underdog who actually beat the favorite one so let's go with carolina to get back on track"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Paul picks Kowalkiewicz, noting her superior striking and takedown defense from their first fight. He acknowledges both fighters are washed but believes Kowalkiewicz's activity and training at ATT give her an edge. He is not confident due to women's MMA volatility.

"give me uh give me carolina kovakovich but of course women's mma so you just you can't have a ton of confidence"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

The MMA Guru picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz but with clear disdain and low confidence. He calls the fight a 'sympathy bout' and questions why it's on the card. He notes Kowalkiewicz has good grappling defense and is scrappy, and she won the first fight, so he expects her to win again. However, he admits 'who knows' and seems to care little about the outcome.

"i'm going to go kovalkavich she's got good grappling defense in her career she's scrappy on the feet"
LOSS vs Jessica Penne
Submission (armbar) R1 4:32 · UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Aug 07, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jessica Penne 0 8 of 12 66% 28 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:26
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 12 of 19 63% 21 of 30 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jessica Penne 0 8 of 12 66% 28 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:26
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 12 of 19 63% 21 of 30 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jessica Penne 8 of 12 66% 3 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 5 4 of 7 0 of 0 4 of 5
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 12 of 19 63% 9 of 16 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 8 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jessica Penne 8 of 12 66% 3 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 5 4 of 7 0 of 0 4 of 5
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 12 of 19 63% 9 of 16 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 8 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2021 (fight day)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Angelo picks Kowalkiewicz, stating she is on a different level than Penne. He notes she was almost a champion and should win, though Penne can make it ugly by leaning on her. He mentions she has trained with a new team and expects her to piece up Penne.

"Carolina is gonna put an absolute whooping on Penne... she's on a completely different level."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 3, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Big Brady thinks both fighters are past their prime but favors Kowalkiewicz due to her higher volume and better striking. He notes Penne will want takedowns but Kowalkiewicz has solid takedown defense (75%) and trains with JJ. He worries about Penne controlling rounds if she gets takedowns, but ultimately picks Kowalkiewicz by decision.

"I'm gonna take Carolina here I think it's a solid matchup for her."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Cody picks Kowalkiewicz but with hesitation. He notes her losing streak and potential motivation issues, but believes she is the more skilled fighter. He expects a close decision win.

fight goes to decision
"i will go with karolina kovakiewicz but whereas it should be just like let's hammer this baby home it's like there's buyer beware now"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 6, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jessica Penne

Daniel Levi slightly leans Jessica Penne as the underdog, citing that both fighters are past their primes but Penne has been more active and showed some offensive output in her last fight. He notes that Karolina Kowalkiewicz has not been the same since her diagnosis and has taken a lot of damage. He believes Penne can win a split decision by taking the back or having top control, though he acknowledges Kowalkiewicz is better on the feet.

"I'll actually slightly lean towards the dog Jessica Penne"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Kowalkiewicz should keep the fight on the feet and use her striking to outwork Penne. Penne needs to grapple to win, but Kowalkiewicz has good movement and should avoid the clinch. The striking difference is wide, and Kowalkiewicz may even get a TKO. She is coming back after a long layoff but has a favorable matchup. Decision is most likely, but a KO prop has value.

Kowalkiewicz by KO/TKO +900; Kowalkiewicz by decision +120
"I do like Carolina here I think she gets a victory out for you know after uh her extended layoff um decision is probably the most likely outcome."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick. He acknowledges the narrative around Kowalkiewicz's motivation and Penne's hunger, but does not commit.

TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

The MMA Guru picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz over Jessica Penne. He argues Kowalkiewicz has faced much better competition and is more technical, despite being older (35). He criticizes Penne's striking and notes she didn't deserve her last win. He predicts Kowalkiewicz will outstrike Penne to a 30-27 unanimous decision.

"i'm going to go with karolina kovalkovic way more experienced way better technically and i think she'll just outstrike jessica penney to a 30-27 unanimous decision win"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2021 (fight day)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Angelo picks Kowalkiewicz, stating she is on a different level than Penne. He notes she was almost a champion and should win, though Penne can make it ugly by leaning on her. He mentions she has trained with a new team and expects her to piece up Penne.

"Carolina is gonna put an absolute whooping on Penne... she's on a completely different level."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 3, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Big Brady thinks both fighters are past their prime but favors Kowalkiewicz due to her higher volume and better striking. He notes Penne will want takedowns but Kowalkiewicz has solid takedown defense (75%) and trains with JJ. He worries about Penne controlling rounds if she gets takedowns, but ultimately picks Kowalkiewicz by decision.

"I'm gonna take Carolina here I think it's a solid matchup for her."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Cody picks Kowalkiewicz but with hesitation. He notes her losing streak and potential motivation issues, but believes she is the more skilled fighter. He expects a close decision win.

fight goes to decision
"i will go with karolina kovakiewicz but whereas it should be just like let's hammer this baby home it's like there's buyer beware now"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 6, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jessica Penne

Daniel Levi slightly leans Jessica Penne as the underdog, citing that both fighters are past their primes but Penne has been more active and showed some offensive output in her last fight. He notes that Karolina Kowalkiewicz has not been the same since her diagnosis and has taken a lot of damage. He believes Penne can win a split decision by taking the back or having top control, though he acknowledges Kowalkiewicz is better on the feet.

"I'll actually slightly lean towards the dog Jessica Penne"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Kowalkiewicz should keep the fight on the feet and use her striking to outwork Penne. Penne needs to grapple to win, but Kowalkiewicz has good movement and should avoid the clinch. The striking difference is wide, and Kowalkiewicz may even get a TKO. She is coming back after a long layoff but has a favorable matchup. Decision is most likely, but a KO prop has value.

Kowalkiewicz by KO/TKO +900; Kowalkiewicz by decision +120
"I do like Carolina here I think she gets a victory out for you know after uh her extended layoff um decision is probably the most likely outcome."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

Paul does not make a clear pick. He acknowledges the narrative around Kowalkiewicz's motivation and Penne's hunger, but does not commit.

TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

The MMA Guru picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz over Jessica Penne. He argues Kowalkiewicz has faced much better competition and is more technical, despite being older (35). He criticizes Penne's striking and notes she didn't deserve her last win. He predicts Kowalkiewicz will outstrike Penne to a 30-27 unanimous decision.

"i'm going to go with karolina kovalkovic way more experienced way better technically and i think she'll just outstrike jessica penney to a 30-27 unanimous decision win"