vs
-102 +101
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Aug 07, 2021 · Bantamweight · Completed
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Age 39
Height 5' 7"
Reach 70"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 39
Height 5' 6"
Reach 65.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - José Aldo
3.65 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
3.81 SApM
60.0% Str. Def.
0.47 TD Avg
51.0% TD Acc.
92.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Pedro Munhoz
5.38 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
6.29 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.48 TD Avg
16.0% TD Acc.
82.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
José Aldo
Moneyline
FanDuel -102
KO/TKO
FanDuel +500
Submission
BetMGM +1700
Decision
BetRivers +175
Pedro Munhoz
Moneyline
BetRivers +101
KO/TKO
BetMGM +500
Submission
FanDuel +900
Decision
FanDuel +260
José Aldo - Fight History
LOSS vs Aiemann Zahabi
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · May 10, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
José Aldo 1 68 of 167 40% 71 of 170 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Aiemann Zahabi 0 99 of 199 49% 109 of 209 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 José Aldo 0 23 of 59 38% 23 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aiemann Zahabi 0 21 of 46 45% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 José Aldo 0 25 of 72 34% 25 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aiemann Zahabi 0 26 of 66 39% 26 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 José Aldo 1 20 of 36 55% 23 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Aiemann Zahabi 0 52 of 87 59% 62 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
José Aldo 68 of 167 40% 48 of 135 13 of 25 7 of 7 67 of 166 0 of 0 1 of 1
Aiemann Zahabi 99 of 199 49% 79 of 167 14 of 22 6 of 10 66 of 151 8 of 11 25 of 37
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 José Aldo 23 of 59 38% 12 of 42 6 of 12 5 of 5 23 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aiemann Zahabi 21 of 46 45% 15 of 39 4 of 5 2 of 2 18 of 43 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 José Aldo 25 of 72 34% 17 of 62 6 of 8 2 of 2 25 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aiemann Zahabi 26 of 66 39% 19 of 50 3 of 8 4 of 8 25 of 64 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 José Aldo 20 of 36 55% 19 of 31 1 of 5 0 of 0 19 of 35 0 of 0 1 of 1
Aiemann Zahabi 52 of 87 59% 45 of 78 7 of 9 0 of 0 23 of 44 4 of 6 25 of 37
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jose Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aldo (-218), Zahabi (+180)

Round 1
A day and a half ago, the “featured fight of the night” slot was booked as a bantamweight affair. Elder statesman and beloved champ Aldo (32-9, 14-8 UFC) could not get close to 136 pounds, so he and Zahabi (12-2, 6-2 UFC) agreed to bump it up to featherweight to keep it together due to strange Canadian weight regulations. In what could be a passing of the torch match—this could be said about the last five fights or so for the ex-WEC champ—referee Dan Miragliotta will be installed as the cage commander. The two relieved fighters who did not have to cut nearly as much weight as they expected bump fists to get the fight started. Aldo marches forward, guard high, and Zahabi circles all the way around him. Aldo keeps following his foe, neither man throwing a strike of merit for the first 50 seconds. Aldo finally lands a jab, but it is just one jab. Zahabi jabs him back, and Aldo responds with a speedy head kick that bounces into his foe’s armpit. Zahabi jumps in and out to strike, and Aldo lets go with a body kick and two hooks. Aldo cracks the Canadian with a right hand, sending Zahabi back in a hurry. He lands another right hand, and lifts up a knee to counter something that does not get to him. Zahabi gets off two punches, and Aldo does not even register them and loads up a right hand that bangs into the Canadian’s head. Zahabi reaches his foe with a body kick, and Aldo continues marching forward without fear. Aldo lifts his knee up to block a high kick, and he jabs with the ball of his foot extended. Aldo rips the body with two punches, and Zahabi’s guard lower as he frowns. Aldo doubles up on a jab to strike with a right hand, and he gets countered and sways to avoid the worst of them. Aldo counters Zahabi coming in with a hook, and he jabs the body when he notices Zahabi is not retaliating. Aldo scores a mighty low kick, and Zahabi walks towards him to score a pair of punches. Zahabi flashes a grin, and he splits the guard with a few jabs and a couple right hands. Aldo leans back and dodges several punches, and he engages with power offense of his own. Aldo uses a power jab to set up further punches, and he no-sells a left hook and fires one back. Aldo goes to the body, and Zahabi counters with a front kick and a punch. Aldo cracks him with a left hand, and the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Aldo

Round 2
Zahabi starts off the round in a flurry, crashing the pocket and kneeing the former champ flush in the chest. Aldo forces him to settle down with a front kick to the midsection. Aldo flicks out a quick jab, and he sneaks in a low kick before Zahabi can get to him. Aldo checks a kick and swings for the fences, but the Canadian is able to escape them. Aldo checks a leg kick and snaps out his jab, intercepting his advancing opponent every time. Zahabi walks through a few to try to strike, and Aldo goes to the body and head. When Zahabi strikes back, Aldo is nowhere to be found. Aldo pounds the body with a right hand, and he takes a left hook on the forehead so he can rifle off a big hook of his own. Aldo slips a punch and has one scrape off his forehead, and they jab one another up. The former beltholder plays the matador, absorbing a single left hand and landing his own. Zahabi’s foot rises up in a combination, and his foot strikes the groin. He immediately apologizes, and Aldo knows it was totally by accident. They restart in a few seconds, with Zahabi cut on the side of his right eye. Aldo lets him come at him so he can counter, and he ducks a leaping left hand to sneak away. Zahabi kicks him square in the groin, and this time, Aldo is a little more irritated and takes some time, while saying “that’s two” to Miragliotta. Time is called, and Aldo is perturbed but they tap gloves to get going after 15 seconds and push ahead. Zahabi aims a kick much lower to avoid the groin, and he has another get checked. Aldo whips a body shot at him and looks to dodge a jab. Zahabi clips the former beltholder with a left hand, and Aldo pushes off with a front kick and a few jabs. Zahabi dings him with another left, and Aldo shakes his head. Aldo leaps in the air, landing a flying knee to the body at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Aldo

Round 3
The fighters hug it out as the last round begins. Zahabi reintroduces himself with a one-two, beating Aldo to the punch with a few strikes until Aldo revs up his own engine and stinging the Canadian. Aldo lets Zahabi fly past him, but when Zahabi resets, Zahabi lands three punches down the middle. Aldo shakes his head and drives a knee into his chest. Two body shots from the Brazilian land cleanly, and he ducks down and takes a left hand over the top along with a knee to the body. Aldo surges into action, hurting Zahabi with a knee, a right hand and a head kick that send him flying. Aldo punches his foe and drills Zahabi with a legal soccer kick, and Zahabi is all over the place and barely with it. Aldo chases after him and blasts him with another soccer kick, and Zahabi flops to his back and survives it. Miraculously, Zahabi is still in the fight, and he manages to stand back in front of Aldo, who is looking hard at the clock. The Brazilian is totally spent trying to force the finish, and suddenly momentum has shifted again. Zahabi pours it on, and he marches Aldo down and starts hurting him. A gassed Aldo shoots for a takedown, and Zahabi bowls him over and starts landing punches. Zahabi sits in Aldo’s guard, unleashing heavy punches and elbows. Zahabi continues to assault the former champ with unblocked elbows, and Aldo hangs on tight with nothing left to offer. Aldo keeps his hands up and breathes as hard as one can, and he clings to Zahabi while Zahabi offers more elbows. Zahabi complains that Aldo is holding his glove, and a moment of confusion leads to Zahabi hammering Aldo with more elbows. One slashing elbow shreds open a cut on the middle of Aldo’s forehead, and blood streams down his face immediately. Zahabi keeps pouring it on, looking to Miragliotta for a stoppage that is not yet to come. Every time Zahabi nails Aldo, he looks to Miragliotta. Aldo holds on to save himself and run out the clock, and Zahabi helps him back to his feet when the shocking match concludes. Both teams lift their fighters on their shoulders and parade them around the cage, embracing while held on the shoulders. What a fight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Aldo)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Aldo)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Aldo)

The Official Result
Aiemann Zahabi def. Jose Aldo via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 4, 2025 (6 days before fight)
José Aldo

Angelo picks José Aldo despite his age, noting he is still fast, clean, dangerous, durable, and impossible to take down. He argues Aldo won his last fight against Mario Bautista. He mentions an inside distance decision no action prop as an alternative if the moneyline is too steep. He believes Aldo is clearly the better fighter.

Considering inside distance decision no action prop
"It is pretty clear that Jose is actually the better fighter. Even at his age, he is fast, he's clean, he's dangerous, he's durable, he's impossible to take down."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

Big Brady picks the underdog Zahabi, citing his excellent striking defense (71%) and recent improved volume. He thinks the fight will be a close striking match that goes to decision, and with the fight in Canada, Zahabi could get the nod. He notes Aldo is 38 and hasn't used leg kicks in years, and believes the line is too wide.

"I'm going to take Zahabi to win a very close competitive decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Connor picks José Aldo, acknowledging that Zahabi has improved but arguing that Aldo's level of competition and technical striking will prevail. He notes that Zahabi's high guard and predictable patterns will be exploited by Aldo's body shots and counters. Connor expresses some concern about Aldo's age but ultimately believes he is still too good.

"I'm not going to pick it either. I mean even getting countered by like mario batista... it's hard to look at the hobby like... and not imagine jose aldo just tearing his liver out of his rib cage."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2025 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

The host acknowledges Zahabi's recent streak but believes he will struggle against Aldo's Muay Thai. He notes that Aldo remains dangerous in striking even in losses and doubts Zahabi has the grappling or strength to control Aldo against the cage like Bautista did. He expects Aldo to lead in striking and win on the scorecards.

"I think Aldo, even in losses, has shown he is still very dangerous in the striking room."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks Aldo, believing he still has elite skills and will be too much for Zahabi. He thinks Aldo's reach, body shots, and experience will lead to a TKO, possibly in the second round. He doubts Zahabi can hold Aldo against the cage like other fighters have, and notes Aldo's motivation after the controversial Batista loss.

TKO in the second round
"I'm going to go with Jose Aldo getting this one done. I'm going to say Jose Aldo gets a TKO in the second round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Zane picks José Aldo, arguing that Zahabi has never faced an elite-level athlete like Aldo. He notes that Zahabi's success comes from exploiting opponents who try to power through, but Aldo is a technical striker who will punish Zahabi's sloppy boxing. Zane believes Aldo's body work and counter-striking will be too much for Zahabi.

"I'm not going to pick it either. I mean even getting countered by like mario batista... it's hard to look at the hobby like... and not imagine jose aldo just tearing his liver out of his rib cage."
LOSS vs Mario Bautista
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 51 of 117 43% 65 of 139 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 49 of 142 34% 90 of 196 0 of 10 0% 0 0 7:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 13 of 26 50% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 20 of 53 37% 40 of 81 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:20
2 Mario Bautista 0 21 of 43 48% 25 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 19 of 53 35% 31 of 65 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:14
3 Mario Bautista 0 17 of 48 35% 20 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 10 of 36 27% 19 of 50 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 51 of 117 43% 41 of 105 6 of 8 4 of 4 46 of 111 2 of 3 3 of 3
José Aldo 49 of 142 34% 26 of 111 12 of 19 11 of 12 44 of 136 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 13 of 26 50% 8 of 21 1 of 1 4 of 4 12 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
José Aldo 20 of 53 37% 8 of 39 5 of 6 7 of 8 15 of 48 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Mario Bautista 21 of 43 48% 19 of 40 2 of 3 0 of 0 18 of 40 0 of 0 3 of 3
José Aldo 19 of 53 35% 15 of 46 2 of 5 2 of 2 19 of 52 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Mario Bautista 17 of 48 35% 14 of 44 3 of 4 0 of 0 16 of 46 1 of 2 0 of 0
José Aldo 10 of 36 27% 3 of 26 5 of 8 2 of 2 10 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Angelo picks Mario Bautista, citing his forward pressure, high volume striking, and youth. He believes José Aldo's age will eventually catch up to him, and that Bautista's pace and takedown threat will be too much. He notes Aldo looked good in his last fight but attributes that to Jonathan Martinez being gun-shy. He admits he is rooting for Aldo but thinks Bautista wins.

"I'm going to be picking Mario Batista here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Big Brady picks José Aldo as an underdog, citing Aldo's elite takedown defense (91%) and superior striking. He believes Bautista will struggle to take Aldo down, and on the feet, Aldo should win exchanges. He notes Aldo looked great in his return against Jonathan Martinez and could even knock out Bautista, who has been finished before.

second round knockout
"I like uh I like Alo here to win this fight I think he could even knock out Mario Batista you know Batista he's hitable we've seen him hurt we've seen him knocked out Trevon Jones knocked him out I …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Cody picks Aldo, arguing that Aldo's recent win over Jonathan Martinez proved he still has it. He criticizes Bautista's resume, noting that his six-fight winning streak includes mostly low-level opponents. He believes Aldo's takedown defense and striking will be too much.

"I think I'm gonna go Jose Aldo"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Connor also picks Bautista, echoing Zane's reasoning. He highlights Bautista's ability to build momentum and his fearlessness in pressing offense, which could break Aldo's aura of invincibility. He notes that Aldo's later career losses came against fighters who pressured him relentlessly, and Bautista has the right mix of skills to do the same.

Same odds commentary.
"I think batista looks like a much tougher opponent. Yeah, absolutely does."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo as a dog. He notes that Aldo still looks great and has only lost to the very top of the division. He points out that Mario Bautista's wins are against lower-level competition like Bonito Lopez and Ricky Simone, who is one-dimensional. Vreeland emphasizes that Aldo's takedown defense is elite, having stuffed 16 straight takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili, and that Bautista won't be able to wrestle him. He compares Bautista to Jonathan Martinez, whom Aldo easily beat, and believes Aldo is still above that level.

"I'm going Aldo too uh I can't I couldn't believe it uh but going Jose Aldo too I think for me you know like you said I think what you look at with Mario Batista's record like yeah he's looked …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo, citing his legendary takedown defense and counter-striking. He notes that Aldo's boxing has improved and that Bautista's high volume will leave openings for Aldo's counters. Vreeland also mentions Aldo's performance against Jonathan Martinez and his ability to stuff all 16 takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili. He expects Aldo to win the first two rounds and coast to a decision.

"I think Jose is gonna outclass this guy the first two rounds and Coast the last round win a 2928 unanimous decision"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Jeff Fox picks José Aldo. He notes that Aldo is still winning and has only lost to the very top of the division. He believes Aldo's defensive skills, especially his takedown defense, have not declined. Fox thinks Aldo has another win in him and likes the dog money at +120.

"I got to go first I can't fade it Jose Aldo surprisingly he just still looks damn good"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Mario Bautista

The host believes Bautista is a more dangerous opponent than Aldo's last fight. He thinks Bautista will land strikes from distance and crack Aldo a few times, preventing Aldo from getting into his groove. He notes that Bautista's opponents often grapple with him, but Aldo doesn't do that, and Bautista is closer to his prime while Aldo at 38 may be a step behind. He suggests Bautista could even get a finish.

"I think Bautista will do a good enough job in terms of Landing his strikes from distance and I think he'll be able to crack Aldo a few times which will keep Aldo from getting to his game"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Paul leans toward Bautista, citing his improvements and volume striking. He thinks Bautista can outwork Aldo over three rounds, though he acknowledges the risk of getting starstruck. He sees value at minus 130.

"Bautista definitely has my interests and potentially my money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Mario Bautista, citing Aldo's superior striking, power, and body work. He questions Bautista's level of competition, noting close fights with Deonte Blackshear and Ricky Simon. He believes Aldo's physicality and takedown defense will be too much, and that Aldo's body shots will be effective at altitude. He predicts Aldo wins a decision, surviving a tricky third round.

"I'm going to go with Jose Aldo over Mario Batista never doubt Aldo against the B"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Zane picks Bautista, though not confidently. He believes Bautista's relentless pressure, refusal to accept defeated positions, and ability to mix in takedowns could overwhelm the 38-year-old Aldo. He notes that Aldo has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Bautista's grappling threat could open up striking. However, he acknowledges Aldo's power and counter-striking make it a risky pick.

Aldo opened at +149, now +124. Bautista opened at -168, now -139.
"I think i'm gonna pick batista though. I'm picking him too. I don't feel confident at all. I don't feel good about it. I don't feel confident in it. No, like I think he's gonna lose."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
José Aldo 0 77 of 139 55% 101 of 174 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:45
Jonathan Martinez 0 52 of 118 44% 80 of 151 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 José Aldo 0 17 of 46 36% 17 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jonathan Martinez 0 15 of 34 44% 16 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 José Aldo 0 30 of 50 60% 30 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jonathan Martinez 0 14 of 38 36% 20 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:20
3 José Aldo 0 30 of 43 69% 54 of 77 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:45
Jonathan Martinez 0 23 of 46 50% 44 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
José Aldo 77 of 139 55% 41 of 96 26 of 33 10 of 10 70 of 132 5 of 5 2 of 2
Jonathan Martinez 52 of 118 44% 36 of 96 9 of 15 7 of 7 50 of 116 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 José Aldo 17 of 46 36% 5 of 30 6 of 10 6 of 6 17 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jonathan Martinez 15 of 34 44% 8 of 23 1 of 5 6 of 6 15 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 José Aldo 30 of 50 60% 15 of 34 11 of 12 4 of 4 30 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jonathan Martinez 14 of 38 36% 12 of 35 2 of 3 0 of 0 14 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 José Aldo 30 of 43 69% 21 of 32 9 of 11 0 of 0 23 of 36 5 of 5 2 of 2
Jonathan Martinez 23 of 46 50% 16 of 38 6 of 7 1 of 1 21 of 44 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Angelo picks Martinez due to age and activity, believing Aldo is older than listed and rusty after two years. He notes Martinez's leg kicks and technical striking. However, he does not bet on the fight out of respect for Aldo and hopes Aldo wins.

"I do think Jonathan Martinez wins this fight but I'm not going to bet on this fight I have too much respect and too much love for Jose Aldo"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

Big Brady is torn due to Aldo's long layoff and retirement, but thinks Aldo's power and the Brazil factor could lead to a decision win. He notes Martinez's leg kicks may be less effective against Aldo. He is not confident enough to bet but picks Aldo by 'robbery decision'.

"I'm going to pick Jose Aldo here to pull off the upset."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Cody picks Aldo, citing the Brazilian crowd and judging bias, Aldo's power to have singular moments, and Martinez's questionable chin. He notes Aldo's boxing activity keeps him sharp and that Martinez faces pressure in Brazil. Cody took Aldo at +145.

"I took him at plus 145 yesterday... just cuz I was like Martinez been fighting a lot of these Apex cards in front of nobody..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Daniel Vreeland picks Martinez by decision, citing Martinez's youth, leg kicks, and efficient grappling. He questions Aldo's motivation after retirement and notes that Aldo has not used his leg kicks or takedowns recently. He believes Martinez will win at kicking range and that Aldo's boxing focus may not be enough. He stays away from betting the moneyline due to uncertainty about which Aldo shows up.

"official pick Martinez for you Martinez decision is the official pick"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff Fox on Jonathan Martinez. He says he doesn't want to pick against Jose Aldo in Rio due to potential weird judging, but everything points to Martinez. Vreeland notes that Aldo has surprised before, but the circumstances suggest Martinez should win.

"do you really want to pick against um Jose AO and Rio too as well like you never know oh yeah get like weird judges scorecards"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Lean picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Jeff Fox picks Jonathan Martinez but calls it a pure pass fight. He acknowledges that prime Jose Aldo was better than Martinez, but questions Aldo's motivation since he has stated he wants to box and is fighting out his UFC contract. Fox thinks if Aldo is not motivated, Martinez will make him pay. He also notes the risk of judging in Rio and Aldo's ability to surprise. Fox says he doesn't want any part of the line but thinks Martinez wins.

"I'll take Jonathan Martinez thinking Jose Aldo comes in not giving a [__] and that's why there officially for no play"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
José Aldo

Aldo is the Godfather of the kicking game and will shut down Martinez's kicks. He will use his speed and power advantage to crash the pocket and find Martinez's chin. Despite coming back from retirement at 37, Aldo's hand speed and power will be too much for Martinez, who is uncomfortable striking inside the pocket. Aldo knocks him out.

knockout
"look for Aldo to March down Martinez and eventually knock him out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Paul picks Martinez, arguing Aldo gets out-struck in most fights and relies on moments. He believes Martinez's volume, speed, and leg kicks will overwhelm Aldo, who hasn't fought MMA in 10 months and looked poor in boxing. Paul sees Martinez winning by decision.

Martinez by decision
"I got to go with Jonathan Martinez... Martinez just out works him with the volume..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo, predicting a body shot finish. He believes Aldo's boxing and low-kick defense will be key, and that Martinez's recent performances show vulnerabilities. He notes Aldo's wins over Marlon Vera and Rob Font, and expects his size and experience to overwhelm Martinez.

body shot
"I'm going to say that Aldo puts him away with a body shot"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 · Aug 20, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 38 of 67 56% 59 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 57 of 147 38% 135 of 230 0 of 16 0% 0 0 5:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 15 of 25 60% 21 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 16 of 49 32% 21 of 54 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:34
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 11 of 22 50% 25 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 11 of 29 37% 62 of 84 0 of 6 0% 0 0 2:54
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 12 of 20 60% 13 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 30 of 69 43% 52 of 92 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 38 of 67 56% 11 of 35 21 of 25 6 of 7 35 of 63 3 of 4 0 of 0
José Aldo 57 of 147 38% 20 of 102 10 of 14 27 of 31 43 of 132 14 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 15 of 25 60% 1 of 8 11 of 13 3 of 4 15 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
José Aldo 16 of 49 32% 2 of 31 3 of 4 11 of 14 15 of 47 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 11 of 22 50% 5 of 15 4 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0
José Aldo 11 of 29 37% 5 of 22 2 of 3 4 of 4 9 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 12 of 20 60% 5 of 12 6 of 7 1 of 1 11 of 18 1 of 2 0 of 0
José Aldo 30 of 69 43% 13 of 49 5 of 7 12 of 13 19 of 58 11 of 11 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 14, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili over José Aldo, though he admits it's a tough pick and he'll be rooting for Aldo. He highlights Aldo's legendary takedown defense, noting that only Frankie Edgar has taken him down more than once in 27 Zuffa fights. However, Angelo believes that without Aldo's leg kicks to slow Merab's relentless wrestling, Aldo will be defending takedowns all night and likely lose a decision. He emphasizes Merab's insane 7.3 takedowns per 15 minutes and his chain-wrestling style.

Plans to hammer the 'most takedowns' prop bet on Merab Dvalishvili when it drops on BetOnline, similar to the Jason Witt bet.
"murab's gonna be the pick i'm gonna be rooting for jose aldo the entire time and i will gladly get this pick wrong"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2022 (5 days before fight)
José Aldo

Big Brady picks José Aldo as the underdog. He highlights Aldo's 90% takedown defense against elite competition, and believes Merab Dvalishvili's relentless wrestling will be neutralized. Aldo is the clearly better striker and has looked good recently. Brady expects Aldo to stuff takedowns, land more damage on the feet, and win a decision. He notes that Dvalishvili's wins are against lower-level competition and this is a big step up.

Aldo by decision
"i like the dog here on jose auto i like him to stuff takedowns i know it's not going to be a very popular pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Cody picks Aldo as a live underdog, citing Aldo's excellent takedown defense (90% career), striking advantage, and ability to win rounds. He thinks Merab's run is overrated and that Aldo can exploit his aggressive style. He acknowledges it's a close fight but likes the plus money.

"i think jose still again another one of these guys that's getting a little bit older but probably still has something left in the tank for underdog money in this close of a fight he's going to lose half the …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Daniel Levi picks Merab Dvalishvili to win a split decision, but he is hesitant because the fight is three rounds instead of five. He notes that Aldo has legendary takedown defense (90% over a long sample size) and will likely win the first round. However, he worries about Aldo's cardio in the elevation of Salt Lake City, as Aldo did not train at altitude. Levi believes Merab's relentless wrestling and pace will wear Aldo down in the second and third rounds, leading to a close decision. He acknowledges that Aldo could win a split decision and that there is value on Aldo as a dog.

Mentions that if it were a five-round fight he would confidently pick Merab, but as a three-round fight it's a toss-up. Says Aldo dog money has value because it could be a split decision.
"five round fight I'm confidently picking morab three-round fight it's it's uh it's like who's judging this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2022 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Aldo's superior striking, get-up game, and takedown defense should allow him to land more damage than Dvalishvili, who struggles to hold opponents down. The host expects Aldo to win by knockout, possibly similar to the Jack Cartwright fight. He advises only 1 unit due to the risk of a changing of the guard.

Aldo by knockout (+450) is mentioned. Also notes under 2.5 rounds (+175) and doesn't go to decision (+150).
"I like jose aldo on the spot and i'm doing my best to not get sucked into the whole aldo and how great he used to be."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Paul picks Merab but is not confident. He thinks Merab's relentless takedown attempts could be key, but notes his poor top control. He mentions he might play Merab over 2.5 takedowns on Prize Picks and prefers live betting.

over 2.5 takedowns on Prize Picks
"i'm gonna pick marab i think he does secure takedowns won't be touching this unless it's in a live betting market"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2022 (fight day)
José Aldo

The Guru predicts José Aldo wins by TKO in the second round. He describes Aldo popping the jab, landing leg kicks, and checking Merab's leg kicks. He sees Aldo stuffing takedowns, landing knees to the body, and eventually hurting Merab with body shots, leading to a TKO. He acknowledges the possibility that Aldo could get mashed up like he did against Yan in the fifth round, but believes his prediction will come true.

TKO in round 2
"tko in the second round for jose aldo the legend"
WIN vs Rob Font
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo · Dec 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
José Aldo 0 149 of 305 48% 193 of 350 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:08
Rob Font 2 86 of 161 53% 96 of 172 0 of 1 0% 1 0 9:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 José Aldo 0 36 of 90 40% 37 of 91 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:50
Rob Font 1 26 of 41 63% 27 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
2 José Aldo 0 48 of 89 53% 48 of 89 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rob Font 0 23 of 51 45% 23 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 José Aldo 0 37 of 64 57% 46 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rob Font 0 12 of 29 41% 14 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:10
4 José Aldo 0 10 of 20 50% 27 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rob Font 1 10 of 12 83% 15 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:35
5 José Aldo 0 18 of 42 42% 35 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:18
Rob Font 0 15 of 28 53% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
José Aldo 149 of 305 48% 94 of 238 38 of 48 17 of 19 135 of 289 6 of 8 8 of 8
Rob Font 86 of 161 53% 57 of 129 19 of 20 10 of 12 75 of 146 2 of 3 9 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 José Aldo 36 of 90 40% 21 of 72 12 of 14 3 of 4 36 of 90 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rob Font 26 of 41 63% 19 of 34 4 of 4 3 of 3 23 of 37 0 of 0 3 of 4
2 José Aldo 48 of 89 53% 23 of 60 13 of 17 12 of 12 48 of 89 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rob Font 23 of 51 45% 15 of 41 8 of 9 0 of 1 23 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 José Aldo 37 of 64 57% 29 of 55 6 of 7 2 of 2 35 of 61 2 of 3 0 of 0
Rob Font 12 of 29 41% 5 of 21 0 of 0 7 of 8 11 of 27 0 of 1 1 of 1
4 José Aldo 10 of 20 50% 9 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 12 0 of 0 8 of 8
Rob Font 10 of 12 83% 6 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 3
5 José Aldo 18 of 42 42% 12 of 32 6 of 9 0 of 1 14 of 37 4 of 5 0 of 0
Rob Font 15 of 28 53% 12 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rob Font

Angelo picks Rob Font, citing his volume, jab, and youth. He notes Aldo looked great against Munoz but Font's non-stop jab and five-round pace could be key. Angelo is worried about Aldo's leg kicks but goes with Font.

"i need to go with font here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Rob Font

Big Brady picks Rob Font to win by decision, but with low confidence and says he will not bet the main event. He notes Font's high volume (5.58 sig strikes/min) and cardio advantage, and that Aldo has slowed down in past fights. He also points out that Aldo hasn't attempted a takedown since 2014, despite Font's poor takedown defense (53%). Brady thinks the line should be closer and would consider Aldo as a dog if betting. He expects a close fight with Font's volume being key.

by decision; if anything, dog or pass for Jose Aldo at plus money
"i'll take rob font by decision but not too much confidence in that"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Cody is tempted by the underdog price on Aldo, noting his career resurgence against Pedro Munoz. He argues that Aldo's losses are to elite fighters like Volkanovski and Yan, while Font's wins are over aging or chinny opponents. Cody believes Aldo's power and leg kicks could counter Font's jab, and that Aldo might get a close decision in Vegas. However, he acknowledges Aldo's cardio issues in championship rounds and is only slightly leaning towards him.

"as of right now i think i'm gonna go slight edge towards the underdog jose aldo we'll see if anything changes but this is dog city and uh there's maybe an underdog in the main event here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 2, 2021 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Daniel Levi picks José Aldo to win a decision, citing Aldo's improved output in recent fights, particularly the Munoz fight where he threw more in round three than earlier rounds. He believes Aldo has more weapons, including body work and leg kicks, and that Aldo's experience and ability to sneak through three rounds will be key. He acknowledges Rob Font's dangerous jab but thinks Aldo can overcome it.

"I think jose can sneak through three of these rounds come out here win this decision and show he's still relevant"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Jacob picks José Aldo, citing his leg kicks, level changes, and veteran savvy. He notes Aldo worked with boxers to improve head movement and should mix in takedowns to slow Font's jab. Jacob is reluctant but thinks Aldo can win.

"i'm going with jose uh i don't love the play uh but i just think he's so savvy and such a veteran"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Rob Font

I lean Font. He has good cardio and volume, and he should be able to increase his output in the later rounds. Aldo has not won a five-round fight in years and tends to slow down. However, Aldo is still dangerous with his counters and body work. I think Font wins a decision, but I'm not confident enough to bet him. The decision prop at plus 195 is the play if you like Font.

Font by decision +195
"i am picking fond to win i think if you are playing font i think fought via decision is probably the best way to go"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rob Font

Paul believes Rob Font is the rightful favorite due to his volume striking and jab. He thinks Font will outwork Aldo over five rounds, especially if Aldo doesn't land early damaging shots. Paul notes that Font's jab was effective against Cody Garbrandt and expects similar success here. He is confident in Font's ability to maintain pace and outland Aldo.

"i think if it comes down to a five rounds if aldo doesn't land like a liver shot something something really damaging uh doesn't really really attack those leg kicks early on i think he just gets out volume over …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2021 (fight day)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo to win by majority decision (48-47). He expects Aldo to win the first three rounds with superior speed, body shots, and leg kicks. Font will rally in the fourth and fifth, pressuring and landing combinations, but Aldo's early work will secure the win. One judge may give a 10-8 fifth round to Font, but Aldo still wins.

"i'm gonna go with jose aldo decision i'll say 4847 decision for jose aldo"
WIN vs Pedro Munhoz
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Aug 07, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
José Aldo 0 114 of 223 51% 114 of 223 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 75 of 179 41% 75 of 179 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 José Aldo 0 25 of 60 41% 25 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 28 of 76 36% 28 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 José Aldo 0 42 of 95 44% 42 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 33 of 71 46% 33 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 José Aldo 0 47 of 68 69% 47 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 14 of 32 43% 14 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
José Aldo 114 of 223 51% 74 of 168 32 of 47 8 of 8 114 of 223 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 75 of 179 41% 35 of 131 3 of 6 37 of 42 71 of 175 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 José Aldo 25 of 60 41% 13 of 40 12 of 20 0 of 0 25 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 28 of 76 36% 11 of 54 2 of 4 15 of 18 27 of 75 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 José Aldo 42 of 95 44% 32 of 78 9 of 16 1 of 1 42 of 95 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 33 of 71 46% 16 of 51 1 of 2 16 of 18 32 of 70 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 José Aldo 47 of 68 69% 29 of 50 11 of 11 7 of 7 47 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 14 of 32 43% 8 of 26 0 of 0 6 of 6 12 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2021 (fight day)
Pedro Munhoz

Angelo picks Munhoz, arguing that Aldo is likely older than his listed age (34) and may be on the wrong side of 40. He sees Munhoz as a younger, high-volume fighter with leg kicks who can come forward and win. He acknowledges Aldo's counter-striking but believes Munhoz's constant movement and pressure will be key.

"I have Munoz over Aldo... Jose Aldo is not 34 years old, Jose Aldo is 40 or higher... Munoz is like a younger, not as good Aldo... coming forward, lots of volume, tons of leg kicks."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 3, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Big Brady sees this as a very close fight between Aldo's power and Munhoz's volume. He leans toward Munhoz's volume, noting Aldo's low output in recent fights. He thinks Munhoz's durability (never finished) will allow him to outwork Aldo and win a decision. He calls it one of the toughest fights to call on the card.

"I'm going to say that Munoz does win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Cody picks Munhoz, arguing that Aldo fades in later rounds and Munhoz has excellent cardio and durability. He notes Aldo's recent reliance on grappling against Vera won't work against Munhoz. Cody sees Munhoz winning by decision after dropping the first round, and likes the live betting opportunity.

Munhoz by decision, live betting after round 1
"i'm going to go with pedro moon is on this one i think jose aldo since dropping down his seemingly you know caught a second win his career is you know he's still a top contender he's just not a …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 6, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Daniel Levi slightly leans Pedro Munhoz due to Munhoz's high output, durability, and pressure fighting style. He acknowledges that Aldo is technically superior and could win early rounds, but expects Munhoz to take over in the later rounds as Aldo fades. He also notes that Munhoz has been robbed by judges before, which makes him less confident, but he still picks Munhoz to get it done.

"I'm a slightly lean Pedro because of the output but man I would be lying if I said I was confident counting out a legend like Jose Aldo"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2021 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Aldo has shown he can adapt, using grappling to win rounds. He is the better striker and should check Munhoz's calf kicks. Munhoz is durable but gets hit a lot, and Aldo can outpoint him over three rounds. Aldo's cardio is better in three-round fights, and he should win a decision. Munhoz's path is marching forward and landing big shots, but Aldo's experience and technique should prevail.

Aldo by decision +180
"I like 34 year old aldo here against the guy in munoz who I think has kind of just been benefiting from that cody garbrandt knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He acknowledges Cody's reasoning and mentions interest in the under 2.5 rounds at +175, but does not commit to a side. He notes that Aldo may look good early but pace slows, and that grappling may not be an option for Aldo.

under 2.5 rounds +175
"i'm interested potentially in the under here we'll see we'll see how these guys look on the scales this week but i think under two and a half rounds of plus 175"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2021 (6 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Pedro Munhoz. He notes Aldo's size advantage, reach, and speed, and believes three rounds is not enough for Munhoz to wear on Aldo. He predicts Aldo will win the first two rounds and take a 29-28 decision. He mentions Aldo's body shots and Munhoz's vulnerability to body strikes.

"i'm gonna go with jose aldo here i think he's just too big"
WIN vs Marlon Vera
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · Dec 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
José Aldo 0 44 of 70 62% 60 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 4:57
Marlon Vera 0 46 of 82 56% 92 of 133 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 José Aldo 0 19 of 29 65% 28 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Marlon Vera 0 16 of 29 55% 29 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:26
2 José Aldo 0 24 of 39 61% 25 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 28 of 50 56% 39 of 63 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:25
3 José Aldo 0 1 of 2 50% 7 of 8 0 of 2 0% 0 0 4:53
Marlon Vera 0 2 of 3 66% 24 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
José Aldo 44 of 70 62% 17 of 38 21 of 26 6 of 6 36 of 62 8 of 8 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 46 of 82 56% 8 of 33 11 of 15 27 of 34 34 of 69 12 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 José Aldo 19 of 29 65% 7 of 15 8 of 10 4 of 4 18 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 16 of 29 55% 2 of 10 0 of 3 14 of 16 15 of 27 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 José Aldo 24 of 39 61% 9 of 22 13 of 15 2 of 2 17 of 32 7 of 7 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 28 of 50 56% 5 of 21 11 of 12 12 of 17 18 of 40 10 of 10 0 of 0
3 José Aldo 1 of 2 50% 1 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jose Aldo vs. Marlon Vera

Round 1
This embarrassment of riches continues tonight, as all-time great Aldo (28-7, 10-6 UFC) faces rising star “Chito” Vera (29-8, 1 NC; 17-8, 1 NC UFC) at bantamweight. Aldo will attempt to earn his first win at 135 pounds in his third try, and he will do so under the watchful eye of referee Dan Miragliotta. The two strikers touch gloves, and it’s time to throw down. Vera starts off with a front kick, and Aldo slaps it out of the way but gets kicked in the leg. The former champ jabs the body, and Vera steps back to kick Aldo’s leg a few times. Aldo slings an overhand right, and he gets off a heavy leg kick like the days of old. Aldo checks a kick, and he absorbs a strike that makes him slip. Vera takes advantage of this to charge in and take the fight down, but Aldo keeps his balance and stands tall against the fence. “Chito” knees Aldo’s thigh a few times as he clings to Aldo, and the two trade short clinch strikes while Vera embraces the grind. Miragliotta calls on Vera to work, so Aldo reverses the position and pushes off, but gets slapped in the face by Vera. Vera lets loose a head kick that gets blocked, and Aldo stalks him down with a few jabs. Aldo digs to the body with a left hand at the end of a short combination, and Vera backpedals against the fence as he eats another liver shot. “Chito” hacks at Aldo’s leg with another kick, but Aldo completely ignores it and blocks a head kick. Aldo slams his right hand on Vera’s stomach, and a thudding leg kick follows suit. Aldo drills Vera with another leg kick, and Vera is already switching stances to avoid these strikes. Aldo fakes a leg kick to draw out a reaction, and he comes up short with a punch to the body. Vera crashes in to clinch, and Aldo spins him out and takes the center of the cage again. Aldo tattoos Vera’s midsection with another punch, and Vera responds with a head kick. Aldo replies in kind, and comes after it with a pounding leg kick that gives WEC fans something to cheer about. The round ends as Vera goes for a spinning kick to the head.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aldo

Round 2
A confident Vera comes out of his corner striking, but Vera is there to greet him with a few leg kicks. The former champ lets loose a right hand, and he picks away at his opponent with kicks. Aldo pierces the midsection with a right hand, and a kick makes Vera retreat and bounce off the fence. Aldo jabs and absorbs a body kick, but he wades through it to swing a hook from each hand. When Vera crashes in, Aldo is easily out of the way and shoves his man back. Vera scores a stern leg kick, and Aldo sits down on a body shot and a looping uppercut. When Vera commits to another low kick, Aldo is there to meet him with a few crushing body shots. Vera wears them well, but Aldo is back for more and even absorbs the end of a spinning back fist without issue. Vera pushes into a clinch to pursue a trip takedown, but the Brazilian keeps his footing as he knees the body repeatedly. Vera very nearly lands a takedown, but Aldo not only stays standing, but he knees Vera to the liver and the head on the way up. Aldo’s right to the body gets countered by a quick hook from Vera, and Vera presses forward to tie up Aldo again. Aldo is content to pepper away at the body with short shots, and Vera pays him back with a stern knee while keeping the ex-champ pinned to the fence. Vera lands a few body shots and an elbow over the top to break up the clinch and conclude the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vera

Round 3
The touch of gloves opens the round, but Vera is ready to throw leather. Aldo ducks a strike, and when “Chito” tries to clinch up, Aldo circles around and takes his back. Vera defends himself from a takedown with a no-look elbow, but Aldo drags him down and then hops on like a Brazilian backpack. Vera leans down while trying to shake off Aldo, but the Ecuadorian falls to his knees. Aldo sinks in the body lock as he fishes for a choke, and Vera fights the grip and keeps his neck clear. The former champ confers with his corner as he holds on to Vera’s back, switching arms for the choke but not finding anything. “Chito” grabs the gloves to stop Aldo from getting a choke locked up, until Miragliotta notices and tells Vera to knock it off. Aldo softens him up with a few punches, but Vera powers up to his knees. Aldo is still firmly in back control with a body triangle locked tightly, and Vera bounces Aldo into the cage to try to scrape him off. Vera walks across the cage to take Aldo away from his corner and into Vera’s, and he slams down to get the ex-champ off but Aldo does not loosen up. Aldo sticks to Vera’s back as Vera stands back up again, and he cannot break the grip no matter how hard he tries. Vera signals a thumbs-down to show his displeasure with the position, but the round ends with Aldo on him like a cheap suit. Barring some strange judging antics, Jose Aldo should finally have earned his first win in the bantamweight division, while snapping a lengthy win streak at 135 pounds for Vera.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)

The Official Result
Jose Aldo def. Marlon Vera via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 18, 2020 (1 day before fight)
José Aldo

Angelo picks José Aldo as a guaranteed win, arguing that Marlon Vera's win over Sean O'Malley was a fluke due to O'Malley's ankle injury. He believes Aldo, one of the best strikers of all time, will easily outclass Vera.

"jose aldo you're going to choose him that's a guaranteed win i mean marlon vera got a fluke win against sugar shawn o'malley"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Big Brady picks José Aldo over Marlon Vera, arguing that Aldo's level of competition is far superior and that Vera is overhyped. He notes Aldo's 90% takedown defense and believes Vera cannot take him down, forcing a striking match where Aldo has the edge. Brady thinks the fight goes to decision and considers the decision prop a good look, as Vera has never been finished.

decision prop on Aldo, fight goes to decision, over 2.5 rounds
"i'm going to take jose aldo to win here by decision and um i think the decision props not a bad look"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

The host is extremely confident in Aldo, calling him his strongest play on the card. He believes Aldo's leg kicks, boxing, and body work will overwhelm Vera, who is a slow starter and has never faced anyone of Aldo's level. He notes the line is too close due to recency bias and expects Aldo to win inside the distance.

Aldo inside the distance via TKO
"i think he wipes the floor with marlon vera here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2020 (6 days before fight)
José Aldo

The Guru picks José Aldo, emphasizing that this is a three-round fight which favors Aldo's cardio. He notes Aldo's close fight with Yan and his wins over Stephens and Moicano. He believes Aldo's leg kicks and experience will be key, and that Vera's win over O'Malley was due to a fluke leg injury. He predicts a competitive 29-28 decision for Aldo.

Mentions that if Dominick Cruz beats Casey Kenny, a fight between Aldo and Cruz could determine a title shot.
"i think aldo is going to win this fight in a competitive very fun fight of the night performance 29 28 to jose aldo"
LOSS vs Petr Yan
TKO (punches) R5 3:24 · UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Jul 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Petr Yan 1 194 of 309 62% 258 of 376 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:50
José Aldo 0 83 of 157 52% 83 of 157 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Petr Yan 0 33 of 55 60% 34 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
José Aldo 0 14 of 39 35% 14 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Petr Yan 0 16 of 42 38% 16 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 24 of 41 58% 24 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Petr Yan 0 39 of 72 54% 39 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 29 of 49 59% 29 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Petr Yan 0 44 of 72 61% 56 of 86 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:05
José Aldo 0 15 of 27 55% 15 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Petr Yan 1 62 of 68 91% 113 of 120 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:06
José Aldo 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Petr Yan 194 of 309 62% 150 of 256 35 of 44 9 of 9 99 of 201 9 of 11 86 of 97
José Aldo 83 of 157 52% 38 of 97 28 of 39 17 of 21 81 of 154 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Petr Yan 33 of 55 60% 21 of 42 10 of 11 2 of 2 17 of 36 0 of 0 16 of 19
José Aldo 14 of 39 35% 10 of 28 1 of 6 3 of 5 14 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Petr Yan 16 of 42 38% 11 of 35 3 of 5 2 of 2 16 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
José Aldo 24 of 41 58% 7 of 22 8 of 10 9 of 9 24 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Petr Yan 39 of 72 54% 27 of 56 10 of 14 2 of 2 35 of 68 4 of 4 0 of 0
José Aldo 29 of 49 59% 13 of 27 12 of 16 4 of 6 27 of 46 2 of 3 0 of 0
4 Petr Yan 44 of 72 61% 32 of 58 9 of 11 3 of 3 28 of 52 5 of 7 11 of 13
José Aldo 15 of 27 55% 8 of 20 7 of 7 0 of 0 15 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Petr Yan 62 of 68 91% 59 of 65 3 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 59 of 65
José Aldo 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Big Brady picks Petr Yan by fourth-round knockout, citing Yan's volume and youth. He thinks Aldo is live but Yan's pressure and output will overwhelm Aldo late. He is not betting at -245 but believes Yan wins if he doesn't get caught.

fourth round knockout
"i'm gonna pick yon i think he's going to put it on aldo all either all five rounds or get him out there late maybe that third fourth round ... give me yawn bye give me fourth round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Daniel Levi picks Petr Yan, citing his cardio, composure, pressure, and competitive spirit. He believes Yan will push Aldo back, chip away, and potentially finish him in the first three rounds. He notes Aldo's chin deterioration, lack of low kicks, and tendency to gas, while Yan controls the cage and never takes a back step. He expects Yan to become champion.

predicts finish within three rounds
"I'm going with Peter yen and become the bantamweight champion by finish"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2020 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Aldo looked impressive in his bantamweight debut against Marlon Moraes, showing good cardio and aggression. Yan has flaws in leg kick defense, which Aldo can exploit. Aldo is still sharp and fast at 33, and the line at +181 offers value. Picks Aldo to win by decision, though a late stoppage is possible.

1-unit bet at +181
"I took a shot on him at one unit at plus 181"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Petr Yan

The Guru picks Yan, citing Yan's low volume as a tactic to get reads, and his ability to drop Rivera at the end of rounds. He thinks Aldo's cardio isn't the best in a five-rounder and that Yan could take him down and make him think about the takedown. He also notes that Marlon Moraes was able to take Aldo down, suggesting Aldo's takedown defense may not be as sturdy at bantamweight.

"I think yang could go out there and double look double again I don't think our dough's gonna have the same urgency to get up when he knows he's in a five rounder and his cardio isn't the best the …"
Pedro Munhoz - Fight History
LOSS vs Aiemann Zahabi
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · Nov 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aiemann Zahabi 0 109 of 206 52% 110 of 208 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 95 of 327 29% 95 of 327 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aiemann Zahabi 0 30 of 51 58% 30 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 26 of 72 36% 26 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Aiemann Zahabi 0 41 of 90 45% 42 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 22 of 109 20% 22 of 109 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:02
3 Aiemann Zahabi 0 38 of 65 58% 38 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 47 of 146 32% 47 of 146 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aiemann Zahabi 109 of 206 52% 98 of 188 11 of 17 0 of 1 109 of 204 0 of 2 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 95 of 327 29% 82 of 304 7 of 14 6 of 9 94 of 324 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aiemann Zahabi 30 of 51 58% 24 of 43 6 of 8 0 of 0 30 of 50 0 of 1 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 26 of 72 36% 23 of 65 2 of 4 1 of 3 25 of 71 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Aiemann Zahabi 41 of 90 45% 37 of 81 4 of 8 0 of 1 41 of 89 0 of 1 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 22 of 109 20% 16 of 100 3 of 6 3 of 3 22 of 107 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Aiemann Zahabi 38 of 65 58% 37 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 0 38 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 47 of 146 32% 43 of 139 2 of 4 2 of 3 47 of 146 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Pedro Munhoz vs. Aiemann Zahabi
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zahabi (-115), Munhoz (-105)

Round 1
Posting one win in each of the last four years, Tristar Gym’s Zahabi (11-2, 5-2 UFC) has slowly but surely figured things out and climbed the bantamweight ladder. He earns a top-15 adversary in Munhoz (20-9, 2 NC; 10-9, 2 NC UFC), who on the wrong end of his 30s plans on showing there are still levels to this game. Referee Jerin Valel will officiate the preliminary headliner, one that commences as the sportsmen clap hands. Munhoz awkwardly shifts his way forward, throwing Zahabi off with his unusual hopping non-rhythm. Zahabi cannot get a time on him, and he resorts to backing off and lifting his leg up preemptively expecting leg kicks to fly. No strike is thrown for the first 50 seconds until Munhoz says hello with a guard-piercing jab. Munhoz walks Zahabi down and jabs him in the face again, and his front kick does the same to the body. Zahabi lumbers forward with two looping hooks, and a third bounces off the guard. Zahabi pounds the body with a kick, and Munhoz jabs him back to the fence. Zahabi’s big swings are parried or met with jabs, as Munhoz throws straight strikes while keeping his guard up. Zahabi whips another kick to the liver, and he scoops a left hand over the top. Munhoz stays right in Zahabi’s face, reddening him with jabs and slipping counters. Zahabi gets hold of a right hook that Munhoz cannot dodge, but it does not irritate the Brazilian in the slightest. Munhoz sneaks a high kick up, and when he bends over to evade the counters, he ducks into a knee. Zahabi stabs his toes to the liver, and Munhoz’ jab-heavy approach does not falter. Munhoz follows a jab with a left hook, and he swats away a lunging Zahabi and his combo. Zahabi looks for another knee as Munhoz bends, but he does not set it up and instead tags Munhoz in the face with a pair of flush punches. Munhoz jabs and lands a right, and Zahabi works the body and head in response. Zahabi scores a left hook on an advancing Munhoz, and Munhoz throws a low kick and stuffs a takedown shot. Munhoz jabs and sets up a straight right hand and a sharp kick to the ribs. Zahabi keeps his guard up to defend an elbow, and he evades a looping right hand by a matter of inches. Munhoz jabs his way into range, and he is backed off by a pair of jabs from the Canadian. Zahabi gets a high kick up, and they trade hands until the time hits 5:00.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz

Round 2
Munhoz offers a glove touch that is accepted, and he follows it with a few jabs. Munhoz uses the jab to smack Zahabi in the face with a right hand, and Zahabi fires back with a head kick followed by a few punches. Munhoz walks into a knee as he is pressing the action fearlessly, and he does not let Zahabi land without firing back relentlessly. Munhoz opens up with five punches that largely bounce off the guard, and Zahabi works the body with a kick. Zahabi slings an elbow as Munhoz advances, and Munhoz’ jabs are now more frequently being followed with power punches. Munhoz eats a right hand and tries to give one back, and Zahab kicks him in the side again. Munhoz dips and strikes, and he absorbs an uppercut without concern. Munhoz scores a solid right hand that sends Zahabi staggering to the right for a second, but the Canadian steels himself and strikes Munhoz repeatedly with hard jabs. Munhoz is right there in his grill hitting him back, and these two are unloading on one another. Zahabi times a break with a heavy body kick, and the punch salvos of three or more fly from both sides. Zahabi eats a right hand so he can sit down on a clean right counter, and Munhoz smiles and walks him down to slug him back. Munhoz ducks to shoot for a takedown, swelling growing under his left eye, and he cannot ground the Tristar-trained competitor. Munhoz lands a low kick and is jabbed back, but he opens up with right hand into a takedown. Zahabi smoothly sprawls and fights behind his jab, dealing well with Munhoz’ constant pressure. Munhoz slams another leg kick home, opening up a few punches up top. Zahabi strafes to the side when Munhoz swarms him, and he jabs twice and takes a thudding right hand on the temple. Zahabi lands a left and a hooking right, and he stops a double-leg entry without issue and knees “The Young Punisher” in the gut. Zahabi sets up a few punches after the knee, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi

Round 3
Munhoz comes out firing in the last round, with both rounds somewhat close and potentially everything up for grabs in the last five-minute stanza. Munhoz plods forward throwing big hands, and Zahabi’s defense protects from most of it. Munhoz jabs to the body with a foot and up high with a fist, and he parries a counter to put two fists on the dome of his foe. Munhoz rolls with a punch, walks into a right hand and responds with a pair of punches. Zahabi gets a knee up the middle, and Munhoz sends him wobbling back with a couple heavy blows. The fighters continue to trade without fear, and Munhoz has the volume advantage but gets a cut opened up on the right side of his right eye. Zahabi’s jabs target that spot with impunity, and Munhoz completely ignores it to load up on volume punches. Zahabi’s jab is money, forcing Munhoz to wipe his eye. Zahabi shoots for a takedown, and Munhoz stuffs it and splits the guard with a trio of strikes. Zahabi dips to score a right and snaps the head back with a jab, but “The Young Punisher” is right in front of him putting hands on him. They jab at the same time, and Munhoz has three fists flying immediately after launching it. Zahabi’s guard stops the Brazilian from most of his strike getting through, and he stops a takedown with ease. Munhoz charges recklessly with lunging punches, and the counters from Zahabi further chew up Munhoz’ face. Munhoz gets caught with a right hand and hits his seat, and he jumps back up to put hands on jaw. Munhoz scores two right hands over the top, and he motions for Zahabi to swang and bang with him. There is a failed takedown as they trade leather, and Valel gets between them as time expires but they just want to hug it out.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Zahabi)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Zahabi)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Zahabi)

The Official Result
Aiemann Zahabi def. Pedro Munhoz via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 27, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

Angelo picks Aiemann Zahabi due to high fight IQ and a well-trained corner (brother Firas). He notes Pedro Munhoz is a volume striker with dangerous BJJ but negative striking differential. He thinks Zahabi's point-fighting style could work, but if he just sits on right hands, Munhoz will touch him up. He says over 2.5 rounds is probably safe but likely won't bet this fight.

over 2.5 rounds is probably safe
"aan is going to be the pick because of the high fight IQ because of the the well-trained corner"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Big Brady picks Pedro Munhoz to win by decision. He criticizes Zahabi's low output (3.43 significant strikes per minute) and boring style, while Munhoz is more active (5.32 per minute) and has fought tougher competition. Brady likes Munhoz's leg kicks, durability, and takedown defense. He notes that Zahabi does nothing in the cage and that Munhoz's experience against top fighters gives him the edge.

"ped mun is by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Cody picks Pedro Munhoz, citing his durability and higher level of competition. He notes that Munhoz has fought top bantamweights and has a BJJ black belt, though he rarely uses it. He believes Munhoz's aggression and pressure could overwhelm Zahabi, but acknowledges the fight is close and could go either way. He is wary of hometown judging but sides with the Brazilian.

"I'll go with P J Munoz who historically just has like decent you know a very very very good durability."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Daniel Vreeland picks Pedro Munhoz, despite acknowledging his decline from a top-five ranking. He believes Munhoz's higher output, calf kicks, and durability (never knocked down) will be too much for Aiemann Zahabi. Vreeland notes that Zahabi is 36 and not a young prospect, and that Munhoz's experience and pace should earn him a close decision, though he admits a Canadian bias could affect judging.

"go Pedro Munoz here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

Zahabi is on a Cinderella run with upset victories in his last four wins. He will out-strike and out-volume Munhoz en route to a decision victory.

"Look for him to go out there and pick up his biggest Victory this weekend as he out strikes and out volumes Munoz on route to a decision Victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

Paul picks Aiemann Zahabi, arguing that Munhoz is older (38) and has slowed down, while Zahabi is fresher with less mileage. He notes Zahabi's reach advantage and precise striking, and believes he can keep Munhoz at range with his jab. He also mentions Zahabi's four-fight winning streak and momentum, and that Munhoz's aggressive style plays into Zahabi's counter-striking game.

"I'll take a a hobby cuz the lines pretty well even."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

The Guru picks Aiemann Zahabi over Pedro Munhoz, believing Munhoz is declining. He notes Zahabi's movement and strategy from the Firas Zahabi camp, and expects Zahabi to pick apart Munhoz's dipping, hook-swinging style. He predicts a close decision, possibly 29-28.

close decision
"I'm GNA go with amen zahabi I don't think he puts away Pedro manoz but I think he can figure out that style of mun where he just comes in all Twitchy with his hands"
LOSS vs Kyler Phillips
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kyler Phillips 0 52 of 140 37% 52 of 140 1 of 8 12% 0 0 0:24
Pedro Munhoz 0 114 of 275 41% 115 of 276 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kyler Phillips 0 19 of 54 35% 19 of 54 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:24
Pedro Munhoz 0 55 of 120 45% 56 of 121 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
2 Kyler Phillips 0 20 of 42 47% 20 of 42 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 32 of 75 42% 32 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Kyler Phillips 0 13 of 44 29% 13 of 44 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 27 of 80 33% 27 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kyler Phillips 52 of 140 37% 23 of 99 17 of 24 12 of 17 48 of 134 3 of 5 1 of 1
Pedro Munhoz 114 of 275 41% 74 of 224 17 of 24 23 of 27 111 of 269 2 of 5 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kyler Phillips 19 of 54 35% 11 of 44 5 of 5 3 of 5 17 of 50 1 of 3 1 of 1
Pedro Munhoz 55 of 120 45% 41 of 104 6 of 8 8 of 8 52 of 114 2 of 5 1 of 1
2 Kyler Phillips 20 of 42 47% 7 of 22 7 of 12 6 of 8 20 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 32 of 75 42% 16 of 56 8 of 9 8 of 10 32 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Kyler Phillips 13 of 44 29% 5 of 33 5 of 7 3 of 4 11 of 42 2 of 2 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 27 of 80 33% 17 of 64 3 of 7 7 of 9 27 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Pedro Munhoz vs. Kyler Phillips
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Phillips (-238), Munhoz (+195)

Round 1
In the talent-rich no-nonsense bantamweight division, speed sells, and both Munhoz (20-8, 2 NC; 10-8, 2 NC UFC) and Phillips (11-2, 5-1 UFC) are buying. Nine years the elder, Munhoz has served as the more active man of the two over the last few years. Referee Keith Peterson is ready to keep up with these two talented competitors, whether they need 15 seconds or 15 minutes to get things done. The fighters touch ‘em up to begin, and Munhoz moves forward, only to dodge a low kick and a pair of jabs. Phillips reaches his foe with a second leg kick, and Munhoz leaps forward to grab the leg and take the fight down. Phillips spins with a wheel kick that draws audible gasps but does not connect, and he chains a few punches into it to keep Munhoz from crowding him. “The Young Punisher” gets inside to land a right hand, and Phillips scores back with his own offense. Munhoz intercepts a striking Phillips to tackle him to the mat. Munhoz leaps into the guard, but Phillips kicks him off and pushes off with a finger when getting to his feet. Peterson sees this and allows Munhoz to recover, and Munhoz only takes a few seconds before he is ready to go. The two bantamweights jab at one another, and Phillips whips a head kick after. Both men throw leg kicks, and Munhoz crowds him and lands punches that force Phillips to turn away and escape on the edge of the cage. Munhoz pushes out a front kick, and Phillips times a right hand over the top. The two measure one another in single strikes, and Phillips kicks low and buzzes the hair with a kick. Phillips keeps his long jab outstretched, and he leans back when Munhoz wings inaccurate but powerful punches at him. Phillips dodges and spins with a back kick, and he drives a knee on the chin that stings Munhoz. Phillips unloads with a barrage of punches and kicks, and he further tags Munhoz in his long series of strikes. Munhoz gathers himself and throws back, and he knees him in the face. Phillips jabs out his finger while rattling off a long combo, and he jams it into Munhoz’ eye. Phillips also cuts Munhoz, and it was a punch that cause it and not the poke. When they get back to it, Munhoz wipes his eye and engages in a brawl. Phillips sticks and moves, landing flush and getting shoved back with a front kick. Phillips nods at him and eats a left hook that cuts him on the cheek. The fast and furious round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Phillips

Round 2
The cut on the eyelid of Munhoz is not sealed between rounds, and blood leaks from it to start off the round. Phillips sprints forward to attack, and Munhoz is right there to greet him with strikes including a pair of low kicks. Phillips has a one-two bounce off the guard, and he comes up short with a hook kick. Munhoz checks a low kick, and he dips down to rip a left to the body. Phillips kicks him back in the leg, and Munhoz is right there to chop him back. They both crack one another with left hooks, and Munhoz slips and scores a right. Phillips connects with a solid right hand, and Munhoz’ chin is made of sterner stuff. Phillips grazes the hair with a fast head kick, and he swats away a jabbing front kick. Phillips rifles off several jabs while Munhoz comes at him, and he evades the heavier of the strikes coming his way. They both go low with a kick, and Munhoz has his guard raised to block a standing elbow but it cannot defend against a body kick after it. Munhoz keeps his head movement on full display as he dodges and ducks vicious strikes like a spinning back fist, and he remains right close to Phillips. Phillips kicks him in the mouth, and Munhoz takes it cleanly and wades forward to throw back. Munhoz shoulder-rolls when a right hand comes down the pipe, and he parries a left hook. The two trade leg kicks, and Phillips hops forward and stomps the side with a kick. Phillips digs a left to the body and right to the head, and Munhoz does not bat an eye. Phillips chains punches together into a low kick, and he slides back before Munhoz can reach him. Munhoz scores a single body kick, but it is one-and-done while Phillips is largely more active. Phillips gets off a right and a left, and he leapfrogs Munhoz when Munhoz ducks down. Phillips spins with a wheel kick that tags Munhoz, and he stops a potential takedown from coming at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Phillips

Round 3
Munhoz sprints out of his corner ready to engage, and he tosses out a glove touch before darting in to shoot for a takedown. Phillips staves it off and pops out several jabs, keeping him away from the right hand of the Brazilian. They both smack one another with leg kicks, and then aim body shots. Phillips lands a right to the body and a spinning back kick to the other side. Munhoz jabs his way in and misses with an overhand right, and Phillips jabs and paws at the damaged eye of his opponent. Phillips shimmies as he dodges, and he flicks out a front kick that lands on the chin. The two clinch up, but nothing comes of it as Phillips is out of range when he tries to reach a left hand on the break. Phillips strafes to the side and lands a right hand up top along with a body kick. Munhoz scores a low kick, but Phillips is right in his face with punches and his own leg kick. Munhoz snaps the head back with a jab, and he absorbs a clean leg kick in response. Phillips looks to counter a leg kick with a right hand over the top, and he bounces and moves to flick out jabs. Munhoz times a right hand while Phillips is bouncing around, and Phillips has to reset. Phillips slaps a leg kick in the outer lead leg, and he steps in with a left hook and whips a head kick up on the other side. Munhoz does not bat an eye, and he spins with a back kick aimed at Phillips’ head but cannot reach him. Munhoz prods out a front kick, only to get driven back by punches and a head kick. Phillips kicks low to stop Munhoz from getting to him. It temporarily disrupts Munhoz’ constant forward movement, but Munhoz is quick to get back to racing forward. Phillips has a head kick bounce off the guard, and he clips Munhoz with an overhand right. “The Matrix” styles on his opponent with punches that leads to a spinning kick, and the fight ends as Phillips attempts and lands a back flip to celebrate.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Phillips (30-27 Phillips)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Phillips (30-27 Phillips)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Phillips (30-27 Phillips)

The Official Result
Kyler Phillips def. Pedro Munhoz via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Kyler Phillips

Angelo leans Kyler Phillips due to his youth, cardio, and well-rounded game, but acknowledges Pedro Munhoz is the better fighter on paper. He notes Munhoz is 37 and has only one win in five fights, while Phillips is younger and has momentum. He won't bet because the odds on Phillips are too wide for an untested fighter.

"I gotta lean Kyler Phillips here no bets though I don't trust Kyler I think these odds are too far gone as well he's too big of a favorite considering this is his toughest test of his career"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kyler Phillips

Big Brady picks Kyler Phillips to win by decision. He likes Phillips' movement, volume, and sneaky power, and notes that Munhoz has been outlanded in recent fights. He expects Phillips to win the first two rounds and possibly drop the third, winning 29-28. He also mentions a PrizePicks play on Phillips under 2.5 takedowns.

win by decision; PrizePicks: Kyler Phillips under 2.5 takedowns
"give me Phillips give me Phillips to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kyler Phillips

Cody acknowledges Phillips' speed and athleticism but worries about his cardio and durability. He thinks Phillips can win the first two rounds with movement and volume, but Munhoz's durability and pressure could lead to a late finish or decision for Munhoz.

"I'm still going to pre-fight bet Kyler Phillips but this is this is like apple pie [ __ ] potential one that you're going to watch and you're going to feel pretty bad about"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kyler Phillips

Daniel leans towards Phillips due to youth, speed, and explosiveness. He notes Phillips goes balls to the wall and may fatigue, but Munhoz has also slowed down in later rounds recently. Daniel is not interested at the price but picks Phillips to win.

"I'm going to lean a little bit towards Kyler just not interested at this price"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Kyler Phillips

Phillips has a speed, footwork, and technical striking advantage that should allow him to dance around at range and touch up Munhoz. He tends to fade in the third round due to cardio issues, but he should win the first two rounds clearly and survive the third. Munhoz is a tough veteran with power and forward pressure, but his short reach and tendency to get outpointed by technical strikers is a concern. Phillips should put on a similar performance to his win over Barcelos, using movement and output to win a decision.

"I think Phillips's movement uh his ability to kind of just see the kicks coming will allow him to either check the kicks or get out of the way and then just get back to his handywork of touching MOS …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kyler Phillips

Paul agrees with Cody's assessment, noting Phillips' reach and speed advantages. He thinks Phillips can win the first two rounds and hold on in the third, but acknowledges the risk of Munhoz's leg kicks and pressure.

"I'm going to side with you I'm going to say that he gets the first two rounds and then kind of holds on for deer life"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

The MMA Guru picks Pedro Munhoz, arguing that Kyler Phillips' flashy striking style relies on hurting opponents, but Munhoz has never been dropped or wobbled. He notes Munhoz's low kicks and durability, and that even Sean O'Malley couldn't do much to Munhoz. He predicts Munhoz will win a decision, possibly 29-28, or even a draw if Phillips wins early rounds.

decision
"I think monoz will get this one done by decision uh 29-28"
LOSS vs Marlon Vera
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marlon Vera 0 141 of 251 56% 141 of 251 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 113 of 246 45% 113 of 246 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marlon Vera 0 39 of 66 59% 39 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 38 of 71 53% 38 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Marlon Vera 0 49 of 84 58% 49 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 45 of 91 49% 45 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Marlon Vera 0 53 of 101 52% 53 of 101 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 30 of 84 35% 30 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marlon Vera 141 of 251 56% 109 of 212 9 of 14 23 of 25 138 of 246 3 of 4 0 of 1
Pedro Munhoz 113 of 246 45% 53 of 177 20 of 28 40 of 41 111 of 244 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marlon Vera 39 of 66 59% 27 of 51 3 of 5 9 of 10 38 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 1
Pedro Munhoz 38 of 71 53% 14 of 44 8 of 11 16 of 16 38 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Marlon Vera 49 of 84 58% 37 of 71 2 of 3 10 of 10 49 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 45 of 91 49% 23 of 64 7 of 11 15 of 16 45 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Marlon Vera 53 of 101 52% 45 of 90 4 of 6 4 of 5 51 of 98 2 of 3 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 30 of 84 35% 16 of 69 5 of 6 9 of 9 28 of 82 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Pedro Munhoz vs. Marlon Vera
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vera (-198), Munhoz (+164)

Round 1
The UFC made the best of a rough situation when Henry Cejudo withdrew from this matchup against Vera (20-8-1, 14-7 UFC). With about a month to prepare, Munhoz (20-7, 2 NC; 10-7, 2 NC UFC) is more than ready to rise to the occasion and battle it out tooth-and-nail for 15 hard minutes. Neither man has ever been finished, so referee Herb Dean could be in it for the long haul. These two action-packed bantamweights meet in the middle with a glove touch, and Vera immediately takes the center of the cage to lord over it. Munhoz strikes first with a body kick, and he chains a leg kick into it. Vera keeps his hands high but Munhoz gets a right hand in, and the two end up clashing shins at the same time. Vera catches a kick and knocks Munhoz down to the ground, and he nearly lands an illegal soccer kick but pulls back at the last second. Munhoz gets right back up, and he starts chasing Vera with looping punches. Munhoz mixes in leg kicks, and Vera pierces the guard with a sharp jab. Both fighters trade front kicks, and Munhoz chips away at him with strikes to the legs and body. Vera ignores a front kick to the midsection and blocks a right hand, and Munhoz comes at him with a head kick that slides off the raised guard. Vera pops out another jab, and he parries the strikes from Munhoz that come his way. Vera connects with a hefty leg kick, and he snaps the head back with a straight left hand. Vera’s jab intercepts “The Young Punisher” crashing the pocket, and he hops back to avoid a body shot. Munhoz shoots in from a distance for a takedown, and Vera stifles it and responds with a jab and a leg kick. Munhoz’ nose is already starting to redden up, and Vera releases a low kick and a one-two. Munhoz charges, and Vera counters him with a knee that rebounds off the forearm of his opponent. Vera strings together three punches that do not find their home, but a jab does when Munhoz chops at his lead heel. Vera lets go with his hands in a short exchange, and Munhoz connects with two thudding left hands over the top. Munhoz fires off a right hook, and Vera replies with a front kick that grazes past his cheek. Munhoz swarms with two punches before changing stances and swinging with one more. Vera lands a leg kick and continues damaging Munhoz’ nose with jabs, and he stops Munhoz from backing him off thanks to his jab. Vera digs a left to the body, and he keeps his jab flowing. Munhoz elects to mimic this with three straight jabs, and leg kicks come from both fighters. Vera checks a leg kick and darts away when Munhoz throws hands, and Vera resets with a front kick and a swatting left hook. The close round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz

Round 2
The bantamweights come together in the middle of the cage, with Munhoz pushing out an immediate front kick. Vera slips punches and counters, and Munhoz lands another front kick to the body. Vera misses a head kick by a few inches, and he buzzes the hair with a second kick. Munhoz looses a big right hand, and Vera rolls with it and counters with a jab. Vera goes up high with a kick, and Munhoz swings a left hook that grazes past the target. Vera jabs a few times and parries a front kick to the side, and he connects with a thumping leg kick. Munhoz spams front kick, and Vera stands him up with a left hook on the inside. Vera peppers the nose with another sharp jab, and Munhoz lashes back with a strong leg kick and a left hook. Vera tanks it and kicks back on the lead wheel, and he paws out three punches that bounce off the gloves. Munhoz misses with a two-punch string, and he lands on a second effort. The right hands land from Munhoz, and Vera evades a spinning kick with ease. Vera gets in a short left hook, and he walks through a few leg kicks and has punches blocked. Munhoz plants a right hand down the pipe, and he backs off as he eats a body shot and protects his mug from a head kick. Munhoz plows forward and connects with a left, and they get off jabs at the same time. Munhoz follows it with a left hook, and they decide to dish out leg kicks one after the other. Vera nails his foe with a right hand, and Munhoz shakes it off and rubs his nose. Munhoz lands two straight right hands that Vera takes flush without batting an eye, and they swing their fists but end up missing with their exchanges. Vera slides a punch to land a left, and Munhoz whips a right hand over the top. Vera checks a leg kick and snaps out a jab, and a left and a right knock him back a few steps. Vera looks to catch a low kick and counter with a right hand, and he works the body as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz

Round 3
They clap hands to get started with one final round, and they both swing leg kicks at the same time. Vera checks a kick and strikes with his jab, and Dean tells him to watch his fingers. Vera connects with a left to the body and a right to the head, and he clubs Munhoz with a right hand as Munhoz comes his way. Munhoz fires back when Vera lands on him, and he splits the guard with a right hand. The two hand-fight, and Vera tries to check a low kick. Vera stings Munhoz with a jab, and a second makes Munhoz blink it out. Vera goes with a left to the ribs and a right up top, and Munhoz considers taking the fight down as he is stunned. Vera continues to crush Munhoz’ nose with his jab, and Munhoz is fighting back but it is starting to get to him. Munhoz absorbs a flush one-two, and he swings for the fences only to get nailed with a left hook. Munhoz is there every step of the way, but his face is starting to show serious damage. Vera hammers a left to the body that bends Munhoz over, but Munhoz gathers himself and blitzes forward. Vera stands firm and fires out his piston-like jab, and Munhoz has no answer to it other than to try to get his own going as well. Vera checks a kick and puts three punches on the chin of his opponent, and Munhoz is tough but gets stung with two vicious lefts. Munhoz takes a flush jab and shakes his head only to crash forward, and even though he lands, Vera is hitting him much harder. Vera brings a high kick up top for good measure, and he jabs up Munhoz’ face. Vera blocks two punches and lands a right, and Munhoz slips the follow-up and kicks the body twice. Vera nods at him and wings a left hand, and Munhoz shoulder-rolls and counters. Vera plants his fist on the Brazilian’s chin three times in rapid succession, and he ignores a counter. Vera starts showboating, and he steps back as Munhoz spins with two unsuccessful kicks. Vera hoots, and he drops his hands and puts them behind his back. Before Munhoz can reach him, the razor-close matchup comes to a close. It could be anybody’s fight, and judges will have their hands full scoring the first two rounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vera (29-28 Munhoz)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Vera (29-28 Munhoz)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Vera (29-28 Munhoz)

The Official Result
Marlon Vera def. Pedro Munhoz via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Angelo picks Marlon Vera despite acknowledging red flags: Vera is overrated, has been outstruck in his last four fights, and lacks urgency. However, he believes Pedro Munhoz's orthodox striking style plays into Vera's strengths, as Vera excels against fighters who stand in front of him. He also notes Munhoz is on short notice. He has Vera in a parlay.

Parlay with Zhang Weili
"Cheeto Vera is the pick I have money on him I've got him in a nice little parlay... Pedro Munoz is going to come forward work that low leg kick and stand in front of Cheeto and cheeto's gonna blast …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Big Brady picks Pedro Munhoz as a slight underdog, expecting a split decision. He notes Vera is a slow starter who loses first rounds and has been outstruck in four of his last five fights. Munhoz has never been knocked out or knocked down, and Brady believes the fight will be close, favoring the dog.

win by decision
"I'll take uh the dog and Pedro Munoz to pull it off and I'll take Munoz to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Cody highlights Vera's notorious slow starts, often losing the first round, which is problematic in a three-round fight. Munhoz has a good chin and Jiu-Jitsu, and could capitalize if Vera starts slow. He suggests live betting Vera after the first round if he loses it, but officially picks Munhoz as a live underdog.

live bet Vera after round 1
"for me personally yeah I'm gonna have to take some underdogs here and there so yeah so the official pick will be Pedro Munoz"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Daniel Levi picks Marlon Vera, believing Vera will push the pace in the second and third rounds and win a decision. He notes that Vera struggles against longer fighters or those who put him on his back, but here Vera is the longer man. Levi thinks Vera will use front kicks and knees, and that Munoz slows down as fights progress. He also mentions that neither fighter has been finished, but both are hittable, so a finish is possible.

Vera by decision; possibility of first finish for either fighter
"I think Vera is going to push the pace second third rounds and get this decision"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Marlon Vera

Lucrative James picks Marlon Vera to win, possibly by finish, despite Munhoz never being finished in 28 fights. He notes Vera's reach and height advantages, and believes Munhoz's durability may be declining. He expects Vera to pull away in rounds 2 and 3.

"I think Vera is going to win the fight I think he could even finish"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Vera is the more diverse striker and should land damaging blows as the fight goes on. However, Munhoz is durable and can win early rounds with forward pressure. The over 2.5 rounds is the best bet as Vera likely wins rounds 2 and 3 by decision. The moneyline is not worth it due to Vera's slow starts.

over 2.5 rounds
"I still lean chitovera here but I think you know taking the over two and a half is probably the best way to go about it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

The MMA Guru picks Pedro Munhoz over Marlon Vera. He argues Vera relies on finishing opponents late, but Munhoz never gets wobbled, never slows down, and has fought the who's who of bantamweight. He notes Vera struggles in three-round fights and Munhoz's leg kicks and pressure will annoy Vera. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Munhoz.

decision 29-28
"I'm going with Pedro Munoz bad decision 29-28"
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen · Apr 15, 2023
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Gutierrez

Connor picks Gutierrez, agreeing that Munhoz has lost his edge since moving to American Top Team. He notes that Munhoz's old Kings MMA style of relentless pressure is gone, replaced by a more tentative approach. Connor believes Gutierrez's consistent output and target selection will outwork Munhoz, who has become too passive and reliant on a jab and footwork that don't suit his natural aggression.

"I think Gutierrez is way too consistent and again not picky about the targets that he accepts at that range."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Gutierrez

Zane picks Gutierrez, highlighting his improvement and confidence versus Munhoz's decline. He notes that Munhoz has lost his aggressive, four-limbed attack and become more technical but less effective. Zane believes Gutierrez's volume, kicking game, and ability to attack all targets will overwhelm Munhoz, who has poor defensive footwork and has been vulnerable to leg kicks historically.

Gutierrez opened -230, now -195; Munhoz opened +200, now +173. Zane does not mention betting.
"I kind of just think Gutierrez is going to be too much for him to handle."
LOSS vs Sean O'Malley
No Contest (accidental eye poke) R2 3:09 · UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · Jul 02, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Pedro Munhoz 0 26 of 41 63% 26 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean O'Malley 0 25 of 47 53% 25 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Pedro Munhoz 0 19 of 25 76% 19 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean O'Malley 0 15 of 26 57% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Pedro Munhoz 0 7 of 16 43% 7 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean O'Malley 0 10 of 21 47% 10 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Pedro Munhoz 26 of 41 63% 0 of 9 0 of 2 26 of 30 26 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean O'Malley 25 of 47 53% 14 of 30 8 of 14 3 of 3 25 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Pedro Munhoz 19 of 25 76% 0 of 3 0 of 0 19 of 22 19 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean O'Malley 15 of 26 57% 7 of 13 5 of 10 3 of 3 15 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Pedro Munhoz 7 of 16 43% 0 of 6 0 of 2 7 of 8 7 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean O'Malley 10 of 21 47% 7 of 17 3 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Pedro Munhoz vs. Sean O'Malley
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: O’Malley (-300), Munhoz (+250)

Round 1
Kicking off the main card is another fight that could have served as the main event of a Fight Night offering recently, as established veteran Munhoz (19-7, 1 NC; 9-7, 1 NC UFC) looks to shut down the “Sugar Show” of O’Malley (15-1, 7-1 UFC) at bantamweight. Feet and fists are sure to fly fervently, but not before referee Jason Herzog checks them in. The gloves are expectedly not touched given O’Malley’s chatter ahead of the fight, and they land leg kicks at the same time to start things off. O’Malley keeps a wide berth from afar, with a distance where even he cannot land with his significant reach advantage. They are cautious to engage, and O’Malley tosses out a few front kicks while Munhoz goes to the calf repeatedly. O’Malley loads up on an overhand right, and he checks a calf kick that zooms at him. Munhoz checks one in response, and he sweeps low with his rear leg. O’Malley pierces the guard with a jab, and Munhoz circles away and lands a solid leg kick as O’Malley switches stances. The American pokes out a few jabs but little else, and he leaps back as the low kick comes towards him. “Sugar Sean” spins with a back kick, and Munhoz is out of harm’s way in time. Munhoz hammers the leg multiples times, and O’Malley steps forward with a front kick and a straight right hand down the pipe. O’Malley slaps a front kick out, and it bangs into the cup. Herzog spots it immediately, and the crowd boos him despite that the foul lands cleanly. Munhoz takes less than a minute to get back to action, and O’Malley comes out throwing hands. Munhoz answers him with a barrage of leg kicks from both legs, and he appears fired up and walking O’Malley down. They continue to pepper the lead legs of one another with kicks, and Munhoz fires off a high kick that gets blocked in time. Munhoz bears down on him with a chopping kick, and they add up as O’Malley tries to push him back with jabs. The pink-haired fighter spin with a back kick to the midsection, and Munhoz answers him as he plants down with a thudding kick. Munhoz whiffs on a spin kick, and O’Malley mocks him with a pirouette as the crowd guffaws. The tentative round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley

Round 2
The second frame opens as Munhoz comes out running forward, and he switches stances every single time O’Malley does to mirror his stance and allow him to have effective leg kicks come out. Munhoz misses on a head kick, and a front kick as well as he pulls his leg back and lands awkwardly. O’Malley pokes out a few jabs to little effect, and Munhoz retreats and gets popped with a one-two. O’Malley spins with a wheel kick that just brushes past Munhoz’ hair, and one inch to the right could have spelled problems for the Brazilian. Munhoz kicks the midsection on his way in, and he swipes low with a kick. O’Malley absorbs a kick with an audible thud, and he loads up with a right hand that collides with the guard. O’Malley dings Munhoz with a straight right, and the Brazilian loads up on a low kick in response. Practically all of the strikes landed by “The Young Punisher” are leg kicks, and they are rarely more than single strikes. They continue to connect, and O’Malley, irritated from them, pops out a jab. Munhoz lands a punch, and O’Malley reaches out with his fingers outstretched to jab Munhoz in the eye. Munhoz turns away and tries to clear his vision. Herzog allows him to recover and calls in a doctor to give him more time, Munhoz seems to tell the doctor he cannot see out of his right eye. The doctor helps him wipe his eye, and Munhoz claims that all he sees is black from one eye. With that answer, Herzog and the physician properly call the fight off, as Munhoz cannot continue. This poke ruled an unintentional foul, it will go down as a no contest. This is an unfortunate ending to a competitive and intriguing bout, and hopefully the promotion can run it back in the near future.

The Official Result
Sean O’Malley vs. Pedro Munhoz is ruled a No Contest (Accidental Eye Poke) R2 3:09
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Angelo picks Sean O'Malley, citing his accuracy and athletic striking. He believes Munhoz's volume and forward pressure will work against him as O'Malley sticks and moves. He expresses frustration with the matchup, feeling Munhoz is being fed to a rising star, but still sees O'Malley winning a decision.

"I think sean o'malley gets this done i i just hate it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Big Brady is confident in Sean O'Malley, citing his size, speed, and striking advantage. He notes Munhoz is hittable and absorbs many strikes, but worries about O'Malley's leg kicks and durability. He predicts O'Malley wins by decision, as Munhoz has never been knocked out.

O'Malley by decision
"i like o'malley to win i do have my concerns though in terms of laying like minus 300 just about on this guy but um i think he should win this fight and win it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Cody acknowledges Munhoz's path to victory via leg kicks and pressure, but notes Munhoz has declined and lacks wrestling. He thinks O'Malley's reach and speed will be decisive, and that Munhoz hasn't landed a takedown since 2018. He picks O'Malley as the rightful favorite.

"I think he's the rightful favorite and if Munoz just had a shred of wrestling I'd be all over this plus 275 but I'm not gonna get there"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 30, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Daniel Levi is confident in Sean O'Malley, having bet 5 units to win 2 at -250. He believes O'Malley's height, reach, volume, and stance switching will be too much for Munhoz, who is there to be hit and may be on the decline. Levi dismisses the leg kick narrative, noting that O'Malley can mitigate it by fighting southpaw. He respects Munhoz's guillotine and calf kicks but thinks O'Malley's evolution and youth give him the edge.

Bet 5 units to win 2 at -250; got best of the line.
"i bet sean o'malley at -250 to win two units... i think it's going to be sean o'malley's night saturday"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 1, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Sean O'Malley

O'Malley is faster and more technical, but Munhoz has never been knocked out and has good leg kicks. O'Malley should win by decision, staying on the outside and avoiding leg kicks. The host is not confident in a finish and prefers the decision prop.

O'Malley by decision +150; over 2.5 rounds
"i was leaning the o'malley by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Paul agrees with Cody that O'Malley's reach advantage and volume will be key. He notes Munhoz's lack of wrestling makes it hard to back him at +275. He picks O'Malley to win.

"I think he's the rightful favorite"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley, citing his elusiveness, range advantage (7-inch reach), and ability to slow down pressure fighters. He believes Pedro Munhoz has declined and that O'Malley's front kicks and leg kicks will be key. He predicts O'Malley will pick Munhoz apart and win a decision, noting Munhoz's lack of offensive wrestling.

"i'm going to go sean o'malley"
LOSS vs Dominick Cruz
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dominick Cruz 1 74 of 170 43% 79 of 175 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Pedro Munhoz 0 103 of 274 37% 105 of 276 1 of 9 11% 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dominick Cruz 1 21 of 45 46% 26 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Pedro Munhoz 0 25 of 51 49% 25 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:03
2 Dominick Cruz 0 27 of 57 47% 27 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 35 of 113 30% 35 of 113 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Dominick Cruz 0 26 of 68 38% 26 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 43 of 110 39% 45 of 112 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dominick Cruz 74 of 170 43% 45 of 128 10 of 16 19 of 26 73 of 168 1 of 2 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 103 of 274 37% 79 of 240 13 of 23 11 of 11 100 of 270 2 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dominick Cruz 21 of 45 46% 14 of 33 2 of 5 5 of 7 20 of 44 1 of 1 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 25 of 51 49% 18 of 42 5 of 7 2 of 2 23 of 49 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Dominick Cruz 27 of 57 47% 12 of 39 5 of 5 10 of 13 27 of 56 0 of 1 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 35 of 113 30% 30 of 105 2 of 5 3 of 3 34 of 111 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Dominick Cruz 26 of 68 38% 19 of 56 3 of 6 4 of 6 26 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 43 of 110 39% 31 of 93 6 of 11 6 of 6 43 of 110 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Dec 8, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

Big Brady picks Dominick Cruz by decision, but with low confidence. He notes that Cruz has excellent striking defense (72%) and movement, and the bigger cage favors his footwork. Munoz is dangerous with leg kicks and submissions, but he absorbs a lot of strikes. Brady believes Cruz can stay on the outside and outpoint Munoz, but Munoz's power and grappling threat make this a close fight.

"i will pick him to win by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

Daniel Levi picks Dominick Cruz to win by decision, citing Munhoz's struggles against point fighters. He notes that Munhoz gets hit frequently (six times per minute) and has lost to fighters like John Dodson and Frankie Edgar who use movement. Levi believes Cruz's footwork and elusiveness will frustrate Munhoz, and the larger octagon at T-Mobile gives Cruz more room. He acknowledges Munhoz's power and calf kicks but thinks Cruz can neutralize them. Levi sees Cruz winning a clear decision.

"give me dominic cruz to upset pedro munoz here saturday night"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

The MMA Guru picks Dominick Cruz to win by decision (29-28). He believes Cruz's footwork and range management will be problematic for Munhoz, who struggles against fighters who stay on the outside. He notes the bigger cage favors Cruz and that Munhoz has faded in recent fights.

29-28 decision
"i'm gonna go with dominic cruz i think his footwork is going to be a problem for pedro munoz"
LOSS vs José Aldo
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Aug 07, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
José Aldo 0 114 of 223 51% 114 of 223 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 75 of 179 41% 75 of 179 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 José Aldo 0 25 of 60 41% 25 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 28 of 76 36% 28 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 José Aldo 0 42 of 95 44% 42 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 33 of 71 46% 33 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 José Aldo 0 47 of 68 69% 47 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 14 of 32 43% 14 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
José Aldo 114 of 223 51% 74 of 168 32 of 47 8 of 8 114 of 223 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 75 of 179 41% 35 of 131 3 of 6 37 of 42 71 of 175 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 José Aldo 25 of 60 41% 13 of 40 12 of 20 0 of 0 25 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 28 of 76 36% 11 of 54 2 of 4 15 of 18 27 of 75 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 José Aldo 42 of 95 44% 32 of 78 9 of 16 1 of 1 42 of 95 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 33 of 71 46% 16 of 51 1 of 2 16 of 18 32 of 70 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 José Aldo 47 of 68 69% 29 of 50 11 of 11 7 of 7 47 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 14 of 32 43% 8 of 26 0 of 0 6 of 6 12 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2021 (fight day)
Pedro Munhoz

Angelo picks Munhoz, arguing that Aldo is likely older than his listed age (34) and may be on the wrong side of 40. He sees Munhoz as a younger, high-volume fighter with leg kicks who can come forward and win. He acknowledges Aldo's counter-striking but believes Munhoz's constant movement and pressure will be key.

"I have Munoz over Aldo... Jose Aldo is not 34 years old, Jose Aldo is 40 or higher... Munoz is like a younger, not as good Aldo... coming forward, lots of volume, tons of leg kicks."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 3, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Big Brady sees this as a very close fight between Aldo's power and Munhoz's volume. He leans toward Munhoz's volume, noting Aldo's low output in recent fights. He thinks Munhoz's durability (never finished) will allow him to outwork Aldo and win a decision. He calls it one of the toughest fights to call on the card.

"I'm going to say that Munoz does win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Cody picks Munhoz, arguing that Aldo fades in later rounds and Munhoz has excellent cardio and durability. He notes Aldo's recent reliance on grappling against Vera won't work against Munhoz. Cody sees Munhoz winning by decision after dropping the first round, and likes the live betting opportunity.

Munhoz by decision, live betting after round 1
"i'm going to go with pedro moon is on this one i think jose aldo since dropping down his seemingly you know caught a second win his career is you know he's still a top contender he's just not a …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 6, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Daniel Levi slightly leans Pedro Munhoz due to Munhoz's high output, durability, and pressure fighting style. He acknowledges that Aldo is technically superior and could win early rounds, but expects Munhoz to take over in the later rounds as Aldo fades. He also notes that Munhoz has been robbed by judges before, which makes him less confident, but he still picks Munhoz to get it done.

"I'm a slightly lean Pedro because of the output but man I would be lying if I said I was confident counting out a legend like Jose Aldo"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2021 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Aldo has shown he can adapt, using grappling to win rounds. He is the better striker and should check Munhoz's calf kicks. Munhoz is durable but gets hit a lot, and Aldo can outpoint him over three rounds. Aldo's cardio is better in three-round fights, and he should win a decision. Munhoz's path is marching forward and landing big shots, but Aldo's experience and technique should prevail.

Aldo by decision +180
"I like 34 year old aldo here against the guy in munoz who I think has kind of just been benefiting from that cody garbrandt knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He acknowledges Cody's reasoning and mentions interest in the under 2.5 rounds at +175, but does not commit to a side. He notes that Aldo may look good early but pace slows, and that grappling may not be an option for Aldo.

under 2.5 rounds +175
"i'm interested potentially in the under here we'll see we'll see how these guys look on the scales this week but i think under two and a half rounds of plus 175"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2021 (6 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Pedro Munhoz. He notes Aldo's size advantage, reach, and speed, and believes three rounds is not enough for Munhoz to wear on Aldo. He predicts Aldo will win the first two rounds and take a 29-28 decision. He mentions Aldo's body shots and Munhoz's vulnerability to body strikes.

"i'm gonna go with jose aldo here i think he's just too big"
WIN vs Jimmie Rivera
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane · Feb 27, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Pedro Munhoz 0 94 of 194 48% 94 of 194 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jimmie Rivera 0 65 of 193 33% 65 of 193 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Pedro Munhoz 0 37 of 72 51% 37 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jimmie Rivera 0 31 of 80 38% 31 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Pedro Munhoz 0 26 of 49 53% 26 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jimmie Rivera 0 18 of 50 36% 18 of 50 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:04
3 Pedro Munhoz 0 31 of 73 42% 31 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jimmie Rivera 0 16 of 63 25% 16 of 63 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Pedro Munhoz 94 of 194 48% 35 of 115 19 of 27 40 of 52 93 of 193 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jimmie Rivera 65 of 193 33% 48 of 168 4 of 8 13 of 17 65 of 193 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Pedro Munhoz 37 of 72 51% 12 of 40 5 of 7 20 of 25 37 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jimmie Rivera 31 of 80 38% 20 of 67 3 of 5 8 of 8 31 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Pedro Munhoz 26 of 49 53% 8 of 26 7 of 8 11 of 15 25 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jimmie Rivera 18 of 50 36% 14 of 43 0 of 0 4 of 7 18 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Pedro Munhoz 31 of 73 42% 15 of 49 7 of 12 9 of 12 31 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jimmie Rivera 16 of 63 25% 14 of 58 1 of 3 1 of 2 16 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jimmie Rivera

Big Brady picks Jimmie Rivera to win by decision. He highlights Rivera's 92% takedown defense and speed advantage. He notes Munhoz is extremely hittable, absorbing more strikes than he lands, and that Rivera will outvolume him. He thinks Munhoz needs a finish to win, but Rivera has only been knocked out once and Munhoz has never been finished. He mentions Rivera is in his prime and has lost only to top competition. He likes the moneyline at -150 and considers a decision prop.

decision win for Rivera
"give me jimmy rivera i'm going to say he wins by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Feb 26, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jimmie Rivera

Daniel Levi picks Jimmie Rivera, but with hesitation. He notes Rivera is the cleaner striker and historically does well in decisions, while Munhoz has more finishing potential. Levi worries about Rivera's chin but thinks if it goes to the scorecards, Rivera edges it. He acknowledges Munhoz's power and calf kicks but leans Rivera by decision.

"If this goes to the scorecards i got jimmy rivera if this ends inside the distance however that's where i would kind of lean towards pedro... i'll go with jimmy to slightly edge a decision here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jimmie Rivera

Rivera is a Muay Thai specialist with superior footwork and striking technique. Munhoz is a walking punching bag who marches forward, but Rivera's calf kicks and combinations should outclass him. Rivera's takedown defense is strong, and Munhoz's only chance is a knockout, which is unlikely given Rivera's durability. Expect a decision win for Rivera.

Rivera by decision at +120
"i really really like jimmy rivera here again the only real knock on his fight ... is if he knocks out jimmy rivera"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Jimmie Rivera

The MMA Guru picks Jimmie Rivera, believing he won the first fight clearly and has improved more than Munhoz since then. He notes Rivera is now in his prime while Munhoz is past his, and expects Rivera to outbox Munhoz over three rounds, winning a unanimous decision 30-27. He mentions Munhoz's only chance is a knockout, but Rivera is aware of that threat.

"i'm definitely going to be picking jimmy rivera to get the job done here i think he's improved more than pedro munoz"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2021 (fight day)
Pedro Munhoz

Angelo picks Munhoz, arguing that Aldo is likely older than his listed age (34) and may be on the wrong side of 40. He sees Munhoz as a younger, high-volume fighter with leg kicks who can come forward and win. He acknowledges Aldo's counter-striking but believes Munhoz's constant movement and pressure will be key.

"I have Munoz over Aldo... Jose Aldo is not 34 years old, Jose Aldo is 40 or higher... Munoz is like a younger, not as good Aldo... coming forward, lots of volume, tons of leg kicks."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 3, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Big Brady sees this as a very close fight between Aldo's power and Munhoz's volume. He leans toward Munhoz's volume, noting Aldo's low output in recent fights. He thinks Munhoz's durability (never finished) will allow him to outwork Aldo and win a decision. He calls it one of the toughest fights to call on the card.

"I'm going to say that Munoz does win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Cody picks Munhoz, arguing that Aldo fades in later rounds and Munhoz has excellent cardio and durability. He notes Aldo's recent reliance on grappling against Vera won't work against Munhoz. Cody sees Munhoz winning by decision after dropping the first round, and likes the live betting opportunity.

Munhoz by decision, live betting after round 1
"i'm going to go with pedro moon is on this one i think jose aldo since dropping down his seemingly you know caught a second win his career is you know he's still a top contender he's just not a world champion type guy"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 6, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Daniel Levi slightly leans Pedro Munhoz due to Munhoz's high output, durability, and pressure fighting style. He acknowledges that Aldo is technically superior and could win early rounds, but expects Munhoz to take over in the later rounds as Aldo fades. He also notes that Munhoz has been robbed by judges before, which makes him less confident, but he still picks Munhoz to get it done.

"I'm a slightly lean Pedro because of the output but man I would be lying if I said I was confident counting out a legend like Jose Aldo"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2021 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Aldo has shown he can adapt, using grappling to win rounds. He is the better striker and should check Munhoz's calf kicks. Munhoz is durable but gets hit a lot, and Aldo can outpoint him over three rounds. Aldo's cardio is better in three-round fights, and he should win a decision. Munhoz's path is marching forward and landing big shots, but Aldo's experience and technique should prevail.

Aldo by decision +180
"I like 34 year old aldo here against the guy in munoz who I think has kind of just been benefiting from that cody garbrandt knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He acknowledges Cody's reasoning and mentions interest in the under 2.5 rounds at +175, but does not commit to a side. He notes that Aldo may look good early but pace slows, and that grappling may not be an option for Aldo.

under 2.5 rounds +175
"i'm interested potentially in the under here we'll see we'll see how these guys look on the scales this week but i think under two and a half rounds of plus 175"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2021 (6 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Pedro Munhoz. He notes Aldo's size advantage, reach, and speed, and believes three rounds is not enough for Munhoz to wear on Aldo. He predicts Aldo will win the first two rounds and take a 29-28 decision. He mentions Aldo's body shots and Munhoz's vulnerability to body strikes.

"i'm gonna go with jose aldo here i think he's just too big"