Career Averages - Rafael Fiziev
Career Averages - King Green
Rafael Fiziev
King Green
Rafael Fiziev - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurício Ruffy | 0 | 36 of 66 | 54% | 37 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 1 | 55 of 88 | 62% | 60 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maurício Ruffy | 0 | 16 of 33 | 48% | 17 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 18 of 28 | 64% | 21 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 2 | Maurício Ruffy | 0 | 20 of 33 | 60% | 20 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 1 | 37 of 60 | 61% | 39 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurício Ruffy | 36 of 66 | 54% | 9 of 31 | 15 of 19 | 12 of 16 | 34 of 64 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 55 of 88 | 62% | 45 of 77 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 42 of 66 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 20 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maurício Ruffy | 16 of 33 | 48% | 2 of 12 | 7 of 11 | 7 of 10 | 14 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 18 of 28 | 64% | 13 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 18 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Maurício Ruffy | 20 of 33 | 60% | 7 of 19 | 8 of 8 | 5 of 6 | 20 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 37 of 60 | 61% | 32 of 55 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 24 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 20 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ruffy (-122), Fiziev (+102)
Round 1
It’s a striker’s delight in the “featured fight of the night” slot, as lightweights in need of a big win lock ‘em up. “Ataman” Fiziev (13-4, 7-4 UFC) may have struggled having to face Justin Gaethje twice in the span of about two years, but he righted the ship last June by taking out Ignacio Bahamondes. On the other side of the equation, Fighting Nerds staple Ruffy (12-2, 3-1 UFC) saw his mighty win streak come to a crashing halt last year when the co-headliner Benoit St. Denis wrangled and tapped him. This ranked lightweight contest where only man will remain in the top 10 when the dust settles will be officiated by referee Dan Movahedi. The heavy hitters touch gloves before handling their business.
Ruffy in a wide stance holds the center of the cage, avoiding a sweeping low kick while keeping his lead hand dangerously low. The head movement allows Ruffy to dodge a sudden head kick, and he answers with a quick leg kick. Fiziev slowly works his way forward, cutting off the cage and darting in behind a single left hand. Ruffy tosses out another kick, and Fiziev drills him with one that is far heavier. Fiziev ducks away from a tie-up attempt and goes low with another hard kick. Ruffy is not responding well to the calf kicks from the Tiger Muay Thai striking instructor, and Fiziev pressures him all the way to the wall to force a clinch. Ruffy turns him around, and Fiziev is able to escape out the side and nail the body with a kick. Ruffy offers a spinning elbow that is not accurate, and Fiziev walks him down without fear of reprisal.
Ruffy steps in to strike, and he gets caught with a pair of punches and a surprise head kick. Fiziev keeps Ruffy on the back foot, whipping him with kicks to remain pinned to the wall. Ruffy chains a low kick into a step-in knee, and Fiziev barely dodges in time. Both men go to the body, with tit-for-tat powerful single striking exchanges. Ruffy largely throws one at a time, while Fiziev walks through them and fires of his own combos. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy
Round 2
The athletes meet in the middle, with Fiziev starting off with strong body kicks. Ruffy replies with a solid right hand to back him off, and he spins with a back kick that Fiziev evades in time. Fiziev kicks low and then to the ribs, and he ducks under a sweeping left hand. Ruffy sneaks in a right hand over the top, and he partially checks a low kick. Fiziev rushes in with a left hook, and he keeps his opponent skirting on the back wall. They trade punches, with Fiziev taking a low kick on the way out that he does not defend well. Ruffy prods out a few jabs and is met with a hard body kick, and he winds up with a huge right hand that Fiziev takes flush.
Fiziev spins with a wheel kick and bounces off, and he resets without Ruffy taking advantage of it. Fiziev kicks at the front calf, and is answered with one from his opponent. Fiziev digs a right to the midsection, and then ducks in to go left to the liver. Ruffy retreats, and he takes low kicks on both sides. Ruffy reaches out with a right, and he bats Fiziev upside the head with a standing back fist. Fiziev walks Fiziev down and boots him in the liver again, and he gets backed off with a straight jab but is right in front of Ruffy. Ruffy measures his man and blasts Fiziev in the face with a right hand down the pipe, and Fiziev goes squirrely and on ice skates trips around the cage barely able to stay upright. Movahedi thinks to step in, but allows them to keep fighting. Ruffy does not go wild, instead picking his shots and methodically clobbering Fiziev with ground strikes. Fiziev still has his head on a swivel, and he sways and moves so that he can work his way back to his feet, but after several more blistering right hands, he is in a bad way as his balance has completely abandoned him.
Ruffy is able to bully Fiziev down to the ground again, partly due to Fiziev clinging to consciousness with figurative stars over his head like a "Street Fighter" character, and he unloads with a brief but final, concussive bombardment of punches until Movahedi does intervene.
This is a huge triumph for Ruffy, earning easily the biggest win of his career by putting away a renowned muay thai striker and trainer.
The Official Result
Mauricio Ruffy def. Rafael Fiziev R2 4:30 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Rafael Fiziev, stating he is the better traditional striker and has shown he can wrestle and grapple, which is a key advantage. He notes that Ruffy is creative and powerful but was frozen by takedowns in his last fight. Fiziev has dog in him and made adjustments in his last fight. Angelo sees value at minus 115 given their resumes.
Big Brady slightly leans toward Maurício Ruffy in a close striker's delight. He notes Fiziev has slowed down in the third round historically and didn't look great against Gachi after injury. Ruffy is a high-level striker with flashy spinning attacks and won't fade. Brady sees it as a 29-28 split decision either way, but expects Ruffy to take over late.
Cody believes Fiziev is undervalued as a slight underdog. He criticizes Ruffy's reliance on flashy knockouts and low volume, noting that Ruffy was outstruck by James Llontop and only landed 3 significant strikes before his wheel kick KO of Bobby Green. He praises Fiziev's veteran savvy, volume, and ability to mix in wrestling, predicting a close decision win for Fiziev.
Connor picks Fiziev, arguing that Ruffy is a smoke-and-mirrors fighter who is not a natural counter puncher and struggles when pressured. He notes that Fiziev is a superior technician with good takedown defense and that Ruffy's only path to victory is a lucky knockout. He also points out that Ruffy's wins are against slow or limited opponents, while Fiziev has fought elite competition.
Daniel Vreeland picks Ruffy as a dog, viewing the line as a market overcorrection. He believes Ruffy is a special striker who can match Fiziev's speed and technique, and that Fiziev has slowed down since his ACL surgery. Vreeland also notes that Ruffy has improved by training with Volkanovski and that Fiziev lacks a ground threat, making this a striking match where Ruffy can win.
James picks Ruffy to win by KO, citing Ruffy's youth, distance control, and timing advantage. He believes Fiziev is on a downtrend and may be hesitant to engage. James notes Ruffy's training with Volkanovski and that Fiziev's wrestling won't be effective. He sees Ruffy's durability and power as key factors.
Fiziev is a nasty Muay Thai striker with good speed, combinations, and countering ability. He has improved his wrestling, as shown in his last fight where he landed four takedowns. Ruffy struggles with grapplers and was broken mentally by Saint Denis. Fiziev's durability is ironclad, and he should push the pace, counter effectively, and mix in takedowns. The host is baffled that Fiziev is the underdog and expects a finish in round two or three.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Ruffy is overvalued due to his flashy style and that Fiziev is a more complete fighter. He highlights Fiziev's ability to mix in takedowns and his experience against top competition. He expects Fiziev to win a close decision.
The Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, citing his superior striking, timing, and ability to chop at opponents with kicks. He notes Ruffy's weaknesses in fundamentals and predicts Fiziev will win by decision, possibly 29-28. He expects Ruffy to have a good third round but Fiziev's technical edge will prevail.
Zane picks Fiziev, emphasizing that Ruffy is limited strategically and relies on time and space to set up shots. He notes that Fiziev is a capable, controlled striker who can crowd Ruffy and take him down if needed. He also mentions that Ruffy's takedown defense is poor and that Fiziev's only losses are to elite fighters like Gaethje and Gamrot.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 62 of 113 | 54% | 87 of 141 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 50 of 147 | 34% | 62 of 165 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 17 of 25 | 68% | 17 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 13 of 46 | 28% | 13 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 28 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 20 of 44 | 45% | 23 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 3 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 30 of 60 | 50% | 42 of 75 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 17 of 57 | 29% | 26 of 70 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Fiziev | 62 of 113 | 54% | 31 of 72 | 25 of 34 | 6 of 7 | 52 of 96 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 10 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 50 of 147 | 34% | 23 of 108 | 13 of 17 | 14 of 22 | 47 of 139 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Fiziev | 17 of 25 | 68% | 4 of 10 | 9 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 17 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 13 of 46 | 28% | 2 of 26 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 15 | 13 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafael Fiziev | 15 of 28 | 53% | 8 of 20 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 20 of 44 | 45% | 7 of 30 | 9 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 19 of 41 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rafael Fiziev | 30 of 60 | 50% | 19 of 42 | 10 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 47 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 8 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 17 of 57 | 29% | 14 of 52 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 52 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ignacio Bahamondes, citing his length, striking, and multiple ways to win. He acknowledges that Fiziev is the better striker but thinks Bahamondes is on a run and has more finishing options. He notes that Fiziev may have slowed down after injuries and tough fights. He recommends exposure to both in multiple lineups.
Big Brady picks Rafael Fiziev despite him being on a three-fight skid, noting that Fiziev's losses came against top competition (Gamrot, Gaethje twice) and one was on short notice. He believes Bahamondes is taking a step up in competition and that Fiziev's speed, power, and movement will cause problems early. Brady acknowledges Fiziev's cardio issues but thinks the fight goes to decision and that hometown judges will favor Fiziev in a close fight. He predicts a greasy, possibly controversial decision win for Fiziev.
Connor picks Fiziev, agreeing with Zane that Bahamondes' reversion to pocket fighting against Turner is a bad sign against Fiziev. He notes that Bahamondes has lost to short, explosive strikers before and that Fiziev is a much more polished striker than Bahamondes' recent opponents. He believes Fiziev's technical edge and the fact that Bahamondes hasn't proven his new style against a serious range striker make Fiziev the clear pick.
The host is surprised Bahamondes is the slight favorite. He thinks Fiziev may have handpicked his opponent to perform in front of his hometown crowd. He expects Fiziev's speed advantage and wrestling to thwart Bahamondes' distance striking, leading to a big shot or control time for a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Ignacio Bahamondes, citing his range and improved distance management. He believes Fiziev's size disadvantage and recent war with Justin Gaethje will be factors. He expects Bahamondes to pick Fiziev apart as the fight goes on, predicting a third-round finish.
Zane picks Fiziev, noting that Fiziev looked great in his return against Gaethje despite losing, and that Bahamondes has struggled against shorter, better range strikers like Ludovic Klein and John McDessie. He points out that Bahamondes' instinct to sit in the pocket and trade hooks plays into Fiziev's strengths, and that Bahamondes' new rangy style hasn't been tested against a serious striker. He believes Fiziev's technical advantage will be decisive even if he tires.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | 1 | 72 of 134 | 53% | 98 of 163 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 68 of 119 | 57% | 81 of 134 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 17 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 21 of 32 | 65% | 22 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 2 | Justin Gaethje | 1 | 21 of 52 | 40% | 34 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 17 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 39 of 61 | 63% | 47 of 71 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 42 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | 72 of 134 | 53% | 56 of 117 | 9 of 9 | 7 of 8 | 41 of 92 | 26 of 34 | 5 of 8 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 68 of 119 | 57% | 20 of 61 | 43 of 52 | 5 of 6 | 49 of 100 | 14 of 14 | 5 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Gaethje | 12 of 21 | 57% | 7 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 15 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 21 of 32 | 65% | 6 of 16 | 13 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 20 | 7 of 7 | 5 of 5 | |
| 2 | Justin Gaethje | 21 of 52 | 40% | 16 of 47 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 39 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 8 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 17 of 40 | 42% | 6 of 24 | 9 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Justin Gaethje | 39 of 61 | 63% | 33 of 55 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 38 | 18 of 23 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 30 of 47 | 63% | 8 of 21 | 21 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 41 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Connor picks Gaethje because he has more faith in Gaethje's cardio and durability than Fiziev's coming off a knee injury and short notice. He notes that Fiziev faded in their first fight and has not looked good since, while Gaethje's loss to Holloway was a stylistic nightmare that doesn't reflect his overall level. Connor believes Gaethje's jab and pressure will be too much for a rusty Fiziev.
Lucrative James picks Fiziev but is not confident due to intangibles like Gaethje's recent KO loss and Fiziev's knee injury layoff. He thinks Fiziev is the better striker and will land counters, but Gaethje could take over late if he pressures. He predicts Fiziev by KO, similar to his first fight prediction. He notes the line has moved from -250 to -155, indicating market correction.
Zane picks Gaethje, echoing Connor's reasoning about Fiziev's injury and short notice. He notes that Fiziev's pacing has always been a problem and that he tends to gas in round three. Zane also points out that Fiziev's style of crashing into Gaethje plays into Gaethje's strengths in the clinch and pocket. He is surprised by the betting line moving toward Fiziev.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 18 of 32 | 56% | 19 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 16 of 40 | 40% | 17 of 42 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 16 of 27 | 59% | 16 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 12 of 34 | 35% | 12 of 35 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 5 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 18 of 32 | 56% | 4 of 14 | 12 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 16 of 40 | 40% | 11 of 31 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 13 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 16 of 27 | 59% | 4 of 11 | 10 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 12 of 34 | 35% | 7 of 25 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 |
Angelo picks Fiziev for the first time against Gamrot. He notes Fiziev is the better striker and has shown a willingness to go to war. He thinks over five rounds, Fiziev will eventually catch Gamrot. However, he acknowledges Gamrot's wrestling and durability, and says Gamrot at the current moneyline is great value.
Big Brady picks Rafael Fiziev to win by decision, noting he would max-bet Fiziev if it were a three-round fight. He praises Fiziev's striking power and improvement, but worries about his cardio in the championship rounds. He expects Fiziev to stuff takedowns early and bank the first three rounds, possibly knocking Gamrot down. He acknowledges Gamrot's relentless pace and never-slow-down cardio could make it close late.
Cody leans towards Gamrot as a live underdog, emphasizing that Fiziev's cardio fades in later rounds and Gamrot's wrestling can exploit that. He notes Gamrot has never been finished and has a strong chin, but acknowledges Fiziev's striking advantage early. He prefers to bet Gamrot live at a better price rather than pre-fight.
Daniel sees this as a very close fight that could go either way, so he leans toward the underdog. He highlights Gamrot's relentless takedown attempts (21 vs. Tsarukyan, 19 vs. Dern) and his unique low-single wrestling style that Fiziev hasn't faced. He worries Fiziev may fade in the later rounds under constant grappling pressure, leading to Gamrot taking over in rounds 3-5. He acknowledges Fiziev's athleticism and takedown defense but thinks the volume of attempts will eventually pay off.
Lucrative James picks Fiziev, citing his takedown defense and Muay Thai balance to stuff Gamrot's single-leg attempts. He believes Fiziev will land critical damage on the feet and potentially finish Gamrot. Even if it goes late, he thinks Gamrot will be too damaged to capitalize on his cardio edge. He placed 3 units on Fiziev at -136.
The host picks Gamrot as an underdog, reasoning that Fiziev fades in later rounds while Gamrot has proven cardio and grappling over five rounds. He notes Fiziev's 90% takedown defense but believes Gamrot's relentless pressure and chain wrestling will wear him down, leading to a decision win in rounds 3-5. The host also mentions the over 4.5 rounds as a good prop.
Paul leans slightly towards Fiziev, citing his striking advantage and improved takedown defense early. He worries about Gamrot's low volume and that judges may not reward takedowns without damage. However, he is not confident enough to bet pre-fight and will wait for weigh-ins.
The MMA Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, criticizing Mateusz Gamrot's striking as limited to a one-two and takedown attempts. He believes Fiziev's body kicks and counter shots will be effective, and predicts a first or second round TKO. He notes Fiziev's strength and low center of gravity, and argues that the 'secret better half' of lightweight (including Fiziev) tends to beat grapplers like Gamrot. He acknowledges Gamrot's wrestling but thinks Fiziev's danger will prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | 0 | 103 of 171 | 60% | 106 of 174 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 97 of 169 | 57% | 97 of 169 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 23 of 36 | 63% | 23 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 27 of 50 | 54% | 27 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 27 of 48 | 56% | 29 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 32 of 49 | 65% | 32 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 53 of 87 | 60% | 54 of 88 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 38 of 70 | 54% | 38 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | 103 of 171 | 60% | 81 of 142 | 14 of 15 | 8 of 14 | 84 of 147 | 19 of 24 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 97 of 169 | 57% | 38 of 100 | 52 of 61 | 7 of 8 | 81 of 151 | 16 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Gaethje | 23 of 36 | 63% | 11 of 21 | 7 of 8 | 5 of 7 | 20 of 33 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 27 of 50 | 54% | 11 of 29 | 15 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 25 of 48 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Justin Gaethje | 27 of 48 | 56% | 22 of 41 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 23 of 44 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 32 of 49 | 65% | 12 of 27 | 18 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 27 of 43 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Justin Gaethje | 53 of 87 | 60% | 48 of 80 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 41 of 70 | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 38 of 70 | 54% | 15 of 44 | 19 of 22 | 4 of 4 | 29 of 60 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Fiziev (-148), Gaethje (+124)
Round 1
It might not be the fight some were hoping to see, but if their first rumble was any indication, Gaethje (25-5, 8-5 UFC) vs. Fiziev (12-3, 6-3 UFC) 2 should be crackerjack material. Due to the late notice of this lightweight rematch, the two will be scheduled for three five-minute rounds instead of 5x5 like when Gaethje was planning on facing Dan Hooker. In a contest that could easily headline any Fight Night offering out there, these two strikers plan on picking right where they left off. Referee Jason Herzog has donned his hard hat to protect from any errant blows once these two mighty gladiators start swinging. There is a sign of respect before the anticipated brawl, as the men high-five in the center of the cage. Immediate chants of “USA” in support of Gaethje drown out any other audio in the building, and they die down as the fighters do not commit to much. When Gaethje lands his first full-throated strike, Fiziev tackles him to the canvas with a surprise takedown. Gaethje scrambles to get out of the precarious predicament, and Fiziev quickly tries for another level change. The man from Kazakhstan successfully puts Gaethje down again, where he winds up sitting in an inverted triangle choke position dropping down elbows. Gaethje calmly remains in the position until exploding out, and he resets in the center of the cage and takes a right hand over the top. Fiziev jabs his foe in the stomach and then comes up top with another, only for Gaethje to walk him down and uppercut him in the jaw. Gaethje wings a right hand that lands at the end of it, and it is one-and-done as he slowly creeps forward towards his adversary. Fiziev pushes his foe back with a jab to the chest and a leg kick, and his jab keeps Gaethje from engaging fully. Gaethje swings his way in, and Fiziev greets him with a knee and a tie-up. Fiziev rips another two knees to the body, and Gaethje strikes back and swings a right hand up top. Fiziev targets the body with a kick and stings him with a left hand, and he goes after another audible body kick. Gaethje closes in on him as if he wants to take the fight down, but Fiziev’s balance holds up as he knees Gaethje in the ribcage. Gaethje slashes with an elbow up close and forces a break, and he unloads a right hand square on Fiziev’s eye socket. Fiziev kicks, and he recoils it awkwardly. Gaethje shoots for a takedown, and when it fails, he catches Fiziev with a pair of punches. Gaethje goes wide with a kick, and Fiziev sneaks in a left right before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Round 2
The lightweights touch gloves to get back to it, and Gaethje leads the dance with two inaccurate hooks. Gaethje ducks and lashes out with a right and a left, staying in Fiziev’s face until Fiziev partially lands a groin kick. Herzog calls time, and Gaethje takes a little more than 15 seconds before he’s good to go again. Fiziev lunges with a left hand, and his right that follows scores effectively. Gaethje dings him with two hooks, and he absorbs a leg kick before he can back out. “The Highlight” come up short on most of his swings, but he does clip the striking coach with a left hook. Fiziev considers a takedown, bailing on it and taking a few punches on the way out. Fiziev lands a couple in the pocket, but he wants to get out of the brawl and into his preferred technical range. Fiziev looses a body kick and a left to the ribs, and he waves Fiziev on for more as he walks him down. Gaethje slips and comes up top with a vicious overhand right, and he absorbs a body kick and has a head kick skim his dome. Gaethje shakes it off, asks for more and puts his hands on Fiziev’s face. Fiziev misses with a massive right hand, and he kicks low and is checked. Fiziev steps in with a knee to the torso, and Gaethje gives him a clean uppercut to the body and a right hand to break up the brief clinch. Gaethje intercepts his foe with a short left, and he ducks into an uppercut. Fiziev times a perfect knee when Gaethje ducks, and Gaethje slips a few punches and blasts Fiziev with a brutal uppercut that knocks him clean off his feet. Gaethje pounces to try to finish the job, smothering Fiziev when Fiziev turns to his knees and starts beating on his side. Fiziev grits his teeth and works to his feet, but Gaethje drills him with a right hand on the way. Fiziev swings a head kick that bangs into the raised guard, and he leans back to watch a Gaethje head kick pass him by. The tense, exciting round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Round 3
There is a final high-five to open the final stanza, and Gaethje is quick to engage and swat his left hand. Gaethje looks for his uppercut, and it just grazes the beard. Fiziev backs off to unload a spinning wheel kick that bangs into Gaethje’s chin, and Gaethje wipes his nose and paws out a left hand. Fiziev chops at the lead leg, and Gaethje unloads three successive uppercut right hands that catch Fiziev cleanly. Fiziev stands firm in the pocket and cracks Gaethje with a left hand, and Gaethje waves him on. Fiziev whips kick after kick to the body, with Gaethje calling him on every time. Fiziev kicks him upside the head, and Gaethje drills him with an uppercut on the way out. Gaethje trips and stumbles but gathers himself, tying Fiziev up and clipping him with a right hand. Fiziev blasts him with punches and knees to the body, while Gaethje punches him in the head time and time again. One fierce right hand from Gaethje lumps up Fiziev’s left eye in a hurry, and the two get in the clinch and practiced muay thai with ferocious knees. Gaethje breaks and swings a sneaky head kick up top, catching Fiziev in the side of the head leaned over. Gaethje pushes his foe against the wall and delivers three crisp uppercuts on the jaw, and he takes a step back and slips. Gaethje pours it on with power punches, and he uppercuts Fiziev a few more times when they are tied up. Fiziev knees Gaethje in the belly any time they clinch, and Gaethje scores the right hand frequently when breaking. Gaethje strings a jab and an uppercut into a takedown effort, where he pushes Fiziev to the wire but does not ground him. Gaethje imposes his pressure and works the body, and Fiziev knees him back up close. When Fiziev tries to escape, Gaethje catches him on the way out. Fiziev sits on two punches and a high kick, and Gaethje laughs it off and kicks Fiziev in the face. Gaethje unloads a swarm of wild hooks, rocking Fiziev and hurting him badly. Fiziev steels himself and knees Gaethje, and the horn sounds to conclude the dramatic lightweight tilt. What a fight, living up to the hype about as much as it can.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje (29-28 Gaethje)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje (29-28 Gaethje)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje (29-28 Gaethje)
The Official Result
Justin Gaethje def. Rafael Fiziev via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo is confident in Fiziev because he is the most technical striker in the division and Gaethje struggles with technical strikers. He notes Fiziev has phenomenal takedown defense and has defended takedowns from elite grapplers. He thinks Gaethje's power is always a threat but Fiziev should outclass him on the feet.
Big Brady picks Fiziev, citing his technical striking and youth. He questions Gaethje's durability due to accumulated damage and notes Gaethje looked tired in the Oliveira fight. He believes Fiziev can knock Gaethje out, predicting a second-round KO. He expects a war but trusts Fiziev's cardio and skills.
Cody picks Fiziev, citing Gaethje's accumulated damage and declining durability. He notes Gaethje's reckless style leaves him open to counters, and Fiziev's technical striking and ability to intercept shots will be key. He mentions Gaethje's wrestling is an option but he chooses not to use it. He doesn't love the moneyline but sees Fiziev as the cleaner striker. He has no strong prop lean but says the pick is Fiziev.
Connor picks Fiziev because Gaethje has become a back-foot counter puncher who no longer pressures. He notes that Gaethje's new approach makes him vulnerable to fighters who can draw out his counters and come back with combinations, as Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier did. Fiziev is a fast, technical striker with good body work and defensive responsibility. Connor thinks Fiziev's ability to slip and counter will be key, and that Gaethje's lack of subtle adjustments will hurt him. He also notes that Fiziev's kicking game and creativity will give Gaethje trouble.
Jacob is a big fan of Fiziev and thinks he is the best striker in the UFC regardless of weight class. He notes Fiziev knocked out his former striking coach Brad Riddell. He thinks Fiziev will expose Gaethje's striking as high school level with precise counters. He expects a dominant win.
Fiziev is a technical Muay Thai striker with good defense and cardio, while Gaethje is a brawler who may be slowing down at 34. Fiziev's technical advantage should allow him to counter Gaethje's wild hooks and leg kicks, leading to a knockout. Gaethje's durability is a concern, and Fiziev is the younger, hungrier fighter.
Paul echoes Cody's sentiment, picking Fiziev as the better striker. He notes Fiziev's takedown defense was impressive against dos Anjos, and Gaethje is unlikely to wrestle. He acknowledges Gaethje's power and volume make him live, but thinks Fiziev's technical edge wins out. He says minus 225 is about right and he won't bet it, but Fiziev is the pick.
The MMA Guru picks Rafael Fiziev to win by TKO, calling it a terrible matchup for Gaethje. He notes Fiziev is a kickboxer who doesn't have to worry about takedowns, allowing him to focus on striking. Gaethje's weaknesses include leg kicks, body shots, and a high guard that leaves his body open. Fiziev has the best body shots in the division and will chop the legs, rip the body, and eventually land a body-head combo for a KO. He also mentions Gaethje's accumulated damage and recent KO loss as factors.
Zane also picks Fiziev, citing Gaethje's increasing unwillingness to pressure. He notes that Gaethje has struggled against consistent technical strikers who are not easily breakable, like Poirier and Alvarez. Fiziev is a fast, powerful kicker who can work at range and in the pocket. Zane thinks Fiziev's defense and combination punching will be effective, and that Gaethje's habit of overcommitting on counters will leave him off-balance. He also mentions that Fiziev's body work could slow Gaethje down, and that this is a good matchup for Fiziev at the right time.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 54 of 110 | 49% | 90 of 162 | 2 of 16 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 6:13 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 64 of 159 | 40% | 92 of 192 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:59 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 22 of 40 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:08 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 14 of 41 | 34% | 17 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 25 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 17 of 44 | 38% | 20 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 3 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 9 of 22 | 40% | 13 of 32 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:46 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 17 of 38 | 44% | 24 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 4 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 15 of 23 | 65% | 28 of 41 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:48 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 12 of 27 | 44% | 27 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:27 | |
| 5 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Fiziev | 54 of 110 | 49% | 31 of 80 | 12 of 14 | 11 of 16 | 50 of 106 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 64 of 159 | 40% | 32 of 102 | 27 of 52 | 5 of 5 | 62 of 155 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Fiziev | 9 of 26 | 34% | 5 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 14 of 41 | 34% | 8 of 26 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafael Fiziev | 19 of 36 | 52% | 10 of 26 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 18 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 17 of 44 | 38% | 6 of 27 | 9 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rafael Fiziev | 9 of 22 | 40% | 6 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 17 of 38 | 44% | 7 of 26 | 8 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Rafael Fiziev | 15 of 23 | 65% | 9 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 12 of 27 | 44% | 7 of 17 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Rafael Fiziev | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Angelo picks Rafael dos Anjos as a +170 underdog, citing his grappling, size advantage, cardio, and durability. He notes Fiziev is the better striker but has questionable cardio, especially in a 5-round fight. He points out that RDA has not lost in 6 years without being taken down, and Fiziev is unlikely to initiate takedowns. He already has a moneyline bet on RDA at +170.
Big Brady picks Rafael dos Anjos, citing the five-round distance as a key factor. He notes that Fiziev has never seen the fourth or fifth round and has slowed down in third rounds of past fights, while RDA has proven cardio and experience in championship rounds. He expects RDA to mix in takedowns to test Fiziev's 95% takedown defense and cardio, potentially taking over in later rounds. He predicts a close decision win for RDA, acknowledging Fiziev could knock him out early.
Cody believes Fiziev has the advantage in striking with better hands and kicks, and his takedown defense is strong. He thinks Fiziev's cardio is sufficient to secure early rounds and then survive if needed. He sees RDA as a gatekeeper and Fiziev as a rising contender, calling it a passing of the torch.
The host discusses the Fiziev vs RDA fight but does not place a bet on it. He acknowledges the value on RDA as an underdog and respects those who pick him, but he personally keeps the fight out of his betting card. He mentions having Fiziev in a parlay but does not elaborate on a clear pick. He notes that Fiziev is younger, faster, and stronger, but RDA is durable and could win by decision. Ultimately, he does not commit to a side.
Paul thinks the price on Fiziev is too wide and expects to get RDA at a better price closer to fight time. He notes RDA's wrestling could be a factor, especially in a five-round fight, and that Fiziev's takedown defense hasn't been fully tested. He calls it a dogger pass situation but leans RDA.
The Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, believing RDA's style is tailor-made to lose to Fiziev. He notes Fiziev's body work, takedown defense, and youth advantage. He predicts Fiziev will win the first three rounds decisively, possibly a 4-1 decision, with RDA making a late resurgence but ultimately losing.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 59 of 115 | 51% | 62 of 118 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Brad Riddell | 0 | 66 of 123 | 53% | 66 of 123 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 21 of 41 | 51% | 21 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brad Riddell | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 19 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 22 of 50 | 44% | 23 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brad Riddell | 0 | 30 of 59 | 50% | 30 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 3 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 16 of 24 | 66% | 18 of 26 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Brad Riddell | 0 | 17 of 29 | 58% | 17 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Fiziev | 59 of 115 | 51% | 23 of 72 | 20 of 26 | 16 of 17 | 59 of 114 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Riddell | 66 of 123 | 53% | 36 of 78 | 22 of 30 | 8 of 15 | 64 of 121 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Fiziev | 21 of 41 | 51% | 9 of 28 | 7 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Riddell | 19 of 35 | 54% | 10 of 18 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 7 | 19 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafael Fiziev | 22 of 50 | 44% | 8 of 30 | 8 of 13 | 6 of 7 | 22 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Riddell | 30 of 59 | 50% | 14 of 38 | 13 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 28 of 57 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rafael Fiziev | 16 of 24 | 66% | 6 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Riddell | 17 of 29 | 58% | 12 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 17 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Fiziev, citing his volume and diversity of strikes. He notes Riddell has more power but waits for the perfect shot, while Fiziev will already have landed kicks. Angelo is nervous about Riddell's power but sticks with Fiziev.
Big Brady picks Brad Riddell as a slight underdog, but with low confidence. He notes the fight is very even and should be a pick'em. He highlights Fiziev's tendency to slow down in later rounds, while Riddell maintains his pace. He also notes Riddell may mix in takedowns, though Fiziev has 100% takedown defense. Brady thinks Riddell's volume and cardio advantage could be key, but acknowledges Fiziev lands harder shots. He sides with Riddell slightly.
Cody also picks Riddell, emphasizing his volume and technical striking. He points out that Fiziev's power shots led to him gassing out against Bobby Green, while Riddell has superior cardio and accuracy. Cody believes Riddell's takedown defense has improved and that he can win by outworking Fiziev, especially in the later rounds.
Daniel Levi picks Rafael Fiziev by a close decision, acknowledging that Fiziev is explosive and accurate in the first two rounds but tends to slow down and get hit more in the third. He notes that Fiziev's output remains high throughout, but his defense deteriorates. He expects Fiziev to win the first two rounds and edge out a decision, though he admits it could go either way.
Jacob picks Fiziev, noting his wild style may impress judges. He thinks Fiziev's aggression and volume will sway scorecards in a close fight. Jacob acknowledges it's a coin toss but leans Fiziev.
I like Riddell. He is the better boxer with better cardio and tends to get stronger as fights go on. Fiziev starts fast but slows down, and he has lost round three in every fight. Riddell will punish Fiziev's naked kicks and land cleaner shots. I expect Riddell to win a decision, and the decision prop at plus 190 is solid. A round three finish is also live.
Paul picks Riddell, citing his volume and technical kickboxing. He notes that Fiziev was out-struck by Bobby Green and faded in the third round, while Riddell has shown cardio and takedown defense improvements. Paul believes Riddell's familiarity with Fiziev from training together gives him an edge, and that Riddell can win by outworking him over three rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Brad Riddell to win by 29-28 decision. He expects Fiziev to win the first round with kicks and takedown defense, but Riddell's body shots and takedown pressure will wear Fiziev down. Riddell will take over in the second and third, landing heavy body hooks and knees, winning the last two rounds.
King Green - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Green | 0 | 57 of 87 | 65% | 64 of 95 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King Green | 0 | 57 of 87 | 65% | 64 of 95 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Green | 57 of 87 | 65% | 44 of 69 | 9 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 35 of 46 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King Green | 57 of 87 | 65% | 44 of 69 | 9 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 35 of 46 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Green (-340), Stephens (+270)
Round 1
They may have nothing in common, but Green (34-17-1, 1 NC; 15-12-1, 1 NC UFC) and Stephens (29-22, 1 NC; 15-19, 1 NC UFC) are both grizzled, battle-tested veterans—not the type who would be saving Private Ryan, mind you, but gladiators who have faced a veritable who’s who in the sport over the years. Both men celebrate exactly 15 wins inside of the Octagon, and they would very much like one more. Referee Gary Copeland will supervise the proceedings of this catchweight affair, one outside of standard weight classes because Stephens biffed weight by four pounds. He gives up 30% of his purse to Green but no glove touch.
Green’s hands are down the moment the fight begins, and he already is chattering at Stephens trying to encourage him to come in at him. Green points at Stephens after Stephens whiffs. He sneaks in a right hand, and he circles to the side towards Stephens’ power side. Green takes a punch off the forehead and pauses, but it does not take long for him to get going again. Stephens misses by a mile with a haymaker, and Green is comfortable hanging out in boxing range. Stephens kicks his for in the front leg, and Green kicks him in the side and gets clinched. Stephens drills Green with a right hand on the break, and Green signals that it did not land flush. Green stabs a kick to the liver, and he pump-fakes his way in to draw reactions. Green staggers Stephens with a left hand, and he knows it and rifles off three more fists in a hurry. Green winds up with a body kick, but it smashes into Stephens’ groin. Stephens grimaces and Copeland calls time. Stephens looks to work out the pain, and Green immediately goes to apologize. Copeland issues a hard warning to Green, and Stephens is good to go after about 80 seconds. Green again apologizes, and Stephens is good with it as they resume. Stephens stalks Green down, and Green’s hands remain down while he is chirping at him. Green lands a right hand and a kick to the body, and he points at Stephens’ stomach and leaps at him to hit a quick double and put Stephens on his back.
Green starts bombing on Stephens when on top, unleashing a long stream of punches and elbows while sitting on his leg in a quasi-half guard. Green keeps thumping up Stephens with his free left hand, and Stephens doubles up his wrist control on Green’s left arm for a straight armlock or kimura. He twists it to become a kimura to go for a sweep, and Green fights it off and steps into mount to batter Stephens with ground-and-pound.
Green transitions into a rear-naked choke in the blink of an eye when Stephens turns, and he rolls to the back to lock it down. Green only has one hook in as he wrenches on the submission, but it is so complete that he does not need the other. Stephens briefly considers going out on his shield but that would be silly. Stephens gives up
, and it is not so much a train that ran him over as it is the Polar Express, with this one-sided shellacking ending with a mean choke. Falling short again, Stephens removes his gloves and may have left him in the center of the Octagon to say farewell to the sport. It is hard to tell with the promotion wholly focused on the triumphant Green.
The Official Result
King Green def. Jeremy Stephens R1 4:20 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks King Green, noting he is the better overall fighter and has shown wrestling in his last fight. He acknowledges concerns about the judges not liking his style and that Jeremy Stephens is always dangerous, but believes Green wins the majority of the time.
Angelo picks King Green, stating he is the better striker and can shoot takedowns if needed. He notes Green's volume and defense, and that Stephens is tough but can be taken down. He is surprised by the 3-to-1 odds and thinks they are too wide for a 39-year-old. He says he will probably leave the bet alone.
Big Brady picks King Green, though he admits he can't lay the -325 odds. He notes Green has looked good recently, while Stephens hasn't won in years and looks done. Brady expects Green to outpoint Stephens, mixing in wrestling if needed, and win a decision. He acknowledges Stephens could knock Green out, but considers that a hot take.
Cody picks Green, citing his superior skills and Stephens' decline. He notes Green's volume and movement, and thinks Stephens is past his prime and not a threat. Cody expects Green to win by decision or submission, but is wary of the minus 400 price.
Connor picks Green, agreeing with Zane. He notes Green is slicker on the feet with better footwork, though his reaction times have slowed. Connor points out that Stephens' recent KO losses are to real sluggers, and Green is not that. He expects Green to make Stephens chase and overthrow, and use takedowns to slow him down.
Daniel picks Green, citing his slick striking, speed, and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes Stephens' knockout power but believes Green is too slick and will avoid getting caught. Daniel expects Green to win via output or submission.
The host passes on this fight. He favors Green but considers the odds too wide (1.30). He notes Green's inconsistency and poor fight IQ, and Stephens' power. He mentions the +3.5 fight spread on Stephens as interesting but decides to keep money safe.
Predicted method: Decision. Green is the younger, more active fighter with superior striking volume (6.38 SLpM) and accuracy (53%) compared to Stephens, who is 38 and has lost four straight. Stephens has power but is hittable (3.14 SApM) and has poor takedown defense (62%). Green's 72% takedown defense should keep the fight standing, where he can outwork Stephens with combinations and movement. Stephens' only path is an early KO, but Green's durability and pace should carry him to a clear decision or late stoppage.
Jacob is confident in King Green, citing that Jeremy Stephens is 1-8 in his last nine fights and hasn't had a knockout since 2018. He believes Green's wrestling and smarter fighting style will be too much, and that Stephens looked clueless on the ground against Mason Jones.
Lucrative James confidently picks King Green because he sees Jeremy Stephens as a knockout-or-bust fighter who is 1-8 in his last nine MMA fights. He believes Green's boxing and volume will overwhelm Stephens, who lacks the cardio and durability to win a decision. He predicts Green wins by decision, noting Stephens' toughness but inability to keep up with Green's pace.
The host picks Green, citing his striking clinic and ability to outbox Stephens. He notes that Stephens lost a boxing match to Chris Avila, which indicates Green should dominate on the feet. He expects Green to win by decision, though he acknowledges Stephens' power and chin. He may look at the decision prop.
Paul picks Green, citing his technical striking and Stephens' lack of recent success. He thinks Green's volume and movement will overwhelm Stephens, who is fighting for a payday. Paul expects Green to win by decision.
The MMA Guru picks Bobby Green, expecting him to pick apart Jeremy Stephens with boxing. He notes Green's recent wins over Daniel Zellhuber and close fight with Fiziev. He thinks Stephens is past his prime and Green will mix in takedowns. He predicts a decision win, though he initially says TKO then corrects to decision.
Zane picks Green confidently, citing his speed, length, and footwork advantage over the older Stephens. He notes Stephens has lost his kicking and wrestling, and is no longer a knockout artist. Zane believes Green can use reactive takedowns like against Zell Hoover to neutralize Stephens. He sees it as a slow-down version of Green's win over Nasrud Hockbrost.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 17 of 78 | 21% | 17 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| King Green | 1 | 86 of 134 | 64% | 100 of 148 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 11 of 46 | 23% | 11 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| King Green | 0 | 41 of 64 | 64% | 41 of 64 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 6 of 32 | 18% | 6 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| King Green | 1 | 45 of 70 | 64% | 59 of 84 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Zellhuber | 17 of 78 | 21% | 7 of 59 | 4 of 10 | 6 of 9 | 17 of 77 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| King Green | 86 of 134 | 64% | 39 of 72 | 21 of 29 | 26 of 33 | 71 of 119 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Zellhuber | 11 of 46 | 23% | 3 of 32 | 3 of 7 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| King Green | 41 of 64 | 64% | 10 of 23 | 15 of 19 | 16 of 22 | 36 of 59 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Daniel Zellhuber | 6 of 32 | 18% | 4 of 27 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| King Green | 45 of 70 | 64% | 29 of 49 | 6 of 10 | 10 of 11 | 35 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 10 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zellhuber (-500); Green (+375)
Round 1
“Golden Boy” Zellhuber (15-3, 3-3 UFC) has appeared a bit gold-plated as of late with two straight losses on his ledger. He will be 13 years the younger of grizzled veteran Green (33-17-1, 1 NC; 14-12-1, 1 NC UFC), who never shies away from a firefight. Before they bang it out, referee Herb Dean clocks them in and the lightweights do not tap gloves together as Green has his mean mug in full display.
Green, hands down by his side as is his custom, swats away Zellhuber’s reaching lead hand a few times. Green steps back as Zellhuber lunges with an overhand right, and the Mexican stumbles, Green catches him, resets and times a takedown to put the two on the mat. Zellhuber spins around as the two wind back up on their feet, where Green starts chattering at him. Zellhuber backs Green to the fence but walks into a straight left hand, and Green follows with a one-two before Zellhuber can get to him. Zellhuber kicks his lead leg, and Green says, “please sir, may I have another.” We’re paraphrasing, but you get the gist. Green keeps goading Zellhuber on, and Zellhuber sells out for a few swings and ends up getting taken down again. Zellhuber once more turns about to escape the ground game and works back to his feet, and once more Green pounds him in the face with a power jab.
Green’s alternating stances and awkward footwork make Zellhuber struggle, and when he lets off offense, he lands it fairly often. Zellhuber is not sure how to proceed, winging a huge right hand in hopes of knocking Green out with one blow, but he does not land it. Green dings him with two punches and slips the counters, brushing off his shoulder mockingly. Zellhuber swings at him, and Green retreats and laughs at him. Zellhuber keeps giving chase, walking into a barrage of punches from “King” and landing some of his own. Green shakes his head and no-sells anything, signaling that nothing has landed flush on him, and he suddenly spins with a back kick that bangs into the shoulder. Green reaches out and slaps the younger man in the face, and Zellhuber answers by kicking him in the face. Zellhuber rips a left to the body, and Green doubles over and has to regain his poker face. Green gets back into his element, grooving back and forth and jamming Zellhuber up with short punches and a hard low kick. He stands before a motionless Zellhuber until the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Green
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Green
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Green
Round 2
Zellhuber starts off the round aggressively, and Green’s head movement and footwork protect him from anything overtly harmful. Green shrugs off the big swings and uses Zellhuber’s offense against him, tackling the Mexican to the floor. Zellhuber wraps up his right leg around Green’s neck to set up an extremely rare and fairly new buggy choke, and Dean checks on Green a few times to make sure he’s still fine. Green gives a thumbs-up and briefly frees his neck from the clutch of Zellhuber’s right arm cinched with his right leg—look it up, because it’s not easy to describe setting up—but Zellhuber commits to it again. Green slowly, methodically wriggles his neck out of danger, and he pops back to his feet. Zellhuber hurries back after him, and Green wants to take him back down.
Zellhuber stops the effort this time, so Green pushes out front kicks and slugs his man in the face with a hard right hand. Green laughs off what flies his way and fires back heavy left hands, and he mixes in obnoxious kicks to the front leg that partially hyperextend the lead knee. Zellhuber has a left hand skim the top of Green’s head, and Green shakes his head and keeps doing his thing. Green does not swing for the fences with his strikes, and Zellhuber’s volume is low while he still tries to figure out a way in. Green hits any target that is open, including the temple, where he clubs Zellhuber and wobbles him. Zellhuber stumbles back on baby der legs, but he manages to get his footing while Green largely showboats in front of him.
Green wings two hooks that bounce off the nose that is now leaking, and he nails “Golden Boy” with a flush salvo of fiery fists. Zellhuber goes out and is snapped back online, and he hits the ground and is in a bad way. Green does not let him off the hook and proceeds to violently batter him on the sides of the head. As “King” continues his final bombardment, Dean saves the Mexican fighter from his own toughness and waves the fight off.
As if he knew he was going to do that the whole time, Green walks off, cool as a cucumber, and has words with the closest camera. At the age of 39, “King” Green can still put on performances like that, dropping Zellhuber’s UFC record below .500 with a vintage knockout.
The Official Result
Bobby Green def. Daniel Zellhuber R2 4:55 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo hesitantly picks Daniel Zellhuber despite his recent poor performance against Michael Johnson. He reasons that Zellhuber cannot possibly 'do nothing' two fights in a row, especially in Mexico. He also notes that King Green (Bobby Green) sometimes is not serious enough and may not score well with Mexican judges. He acknowledges the risk but believes Zellhuber's Mexican spirit and Green's showboating could lead to a Zellhuber win.
Big Brady picks Daniel Zellhuber but with strong hesitation, calling him the biggest 'ball dropper' in the UFC after losing as a heavy favorite twice. He notes Zellhuber should win against King Green, who struggled against Lance Gibson Jr., but is wary of another poor performance. He predicts a second-round knockout if Zellhuber shows up.
Cody strongly fades Zellhuber at -500, pointing out his recent losses and lack of finishing ability. He believes Green's pressure and durability will cause problems, and that Zellhuber's jab won't be enough. He recommends betting Green or passing.
Connor agrees with Zane, but notes that Zellhuber could still lose if he has a slow start and lets Green get comfortable. He points out that Green is crafty and can throw off any fighter with his unorthodox style. However, Connor believes Green's inability to handle fast range strikers and his age make Zellhuber the clear pick.
Daniel picks Daniel Zellhuber, praising his size, reach, sharp hands, and takedown defense. He notes Zellhuber's chin and recovery, and believes he will outrange Prado and avoid ground-and-pound. He sees Zellhuber as a future top-15 fighter, while Prado is still unproven at this level.
The host is very confident in Zellhuber, calling him the safest bet on the card. He cites Zellhuber's youth (26 vs 39), massive reach advantage (6 inches), home advantage in Mexico City, and Green's lack of finishing ability. Green is a volume striker who is old and smaller, and will likely be outworked. The host plans to parlay Zellhuber with Moreno.
James expects Zellhuber to rebound from his loss to Michael Johnson, citing Green's less dangerous boxing style. He believes Zellhuber's kicks, durability, and aggression will overwhelm Green, leading to a finish. James predicts Zellhuber wins inside the distance.
The host picks Daniel Zellhuber but is hesitant due to the -500 price and Zellhuber's recent losses. He notes Zellhuber's height and reach advantages and believes he can land the better strikes. However, he warns that Green is an educated striker and that Zellhuber's striking defense is suspect. He prefers the KO prop over the moneyline.
Paul is leaning towards Green at +375, citing Zellhuber's inconsistency and lack of power. He notes Green's forward pressure and durability, and believes the price is too high on Zellhuber. He hasn't bet yet but is close to clicking Green.
The MMA Guru picks Daniel Zellhuber, citing Bobby Green's struggles against taller opponents and his habit of fighting with his hands down. He notes that Green had trouble with Lance Gibson Jr. and was destroyed by Jalin Turner. He predicts Zellhuber will TKO Green, as Green is open to shots and Zellhuber is a big favorite.
Zane picks Zellhuber because Bobby Green is clearly past his prime at 39 and has lost his speed and defensive instincts. He notes that Green's style relies on head movement and baiting, which no longer works against younger fighters. Zellhuber has problems with discipline and can lose rounds, but Green's decline is too severe to pick him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Green | 0 | 65 of 141 | 46% | 74 of 150 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| Lance Gibson | 0 | 30 of 72 | 41% | 35 of 77 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King Green | 0 | 22 of 51 | 43% | 22 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Lance Gibson | 0 | 12 of 35 | 34% | 12 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | King Green | 0 | 15 of 37 | 40% | 19 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Lance Gibson | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 18 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 | |
| 3 | King Green | 0 | 28 of 53 | 52% | 33 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| Lance Gibson | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Green | 65 of 141 | 46% | 25 of 77 | 24 of 40 | 16 of 24 | 56 of 129 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 11 |
| Lance Gibson | 30 of 72 | 41% | 9 of 39 | 8 of 14 | 13 of 19 | 27 of 66 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King Green | 22 of 51 | 43% | 8 of 26 | 5 of 14 | 9 of 11 | 21 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Lance Gibson | 12 of 35 | 34% | 4 of 22 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 9 | 11 of 32 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | King Green | 15 of 37 | 40% | 5 of 22 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 7 | 15 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Lance Gibson | 13 of 25 | 52% | 4 of 11 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 8 | 11 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | King Green | 28 of 53 | 52% | 12 of 29 | 13 of 18 | 3 of 6 | 20 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 11 |
| Lance Gibson | 5 of 12 | 41% | 1 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Green (-210); Gibson Jr. (+170)
Round 1
In an unexpected catchweight delight, “King” Green (32-17-1, 1 NC; 13-12-1, 1 NC UFC) will sneak in his second fight of 2025 right before the buzzer. He takes this match at a 160-pound catchweight likely due to it being put together about a week ago. Matching up in the cage will be Bellator expat Gibson Jr. (9-1, 0-0 UFC)—for the purposes of this play-by-play, his “junior” name suffix will be omitted—who will be competing for the first time in over a year. It should be noted that Gibson now completes the third father-son duo to both compete in the Octagon, joining Randy and Ryan Couture as well as Gilbert and Elijah Smith. Accompanying the athletes in the Octagon will be referee Mark Smith, who watches on as the two elect not to touch gloves.
Green walks the newcomer down flexing his pectorals, hands down by his hips. Gibson lands first with a thudding calf kick, and Green stares at him like a disappointed father. Gibson fires off kicks at his opponent, and Green showboats and wipes off his shoulder to suggest nothing landed. Green gets off a body kick, and Gibson has another high kick blocked in the nick of time. Green stays evasive and starts motioning like he is dribbling a basketball and otherwise goofing around in the midst of a fist fight. This makes Gibson back off, so Green points at the ground and says, “come here!” Gibson obliges, rushing at him for a possible clinch, but Green slides to the side to stay in striking range. The American jabs the body with his foot, and he stomp kicks at the knee to hyperextend Gibson’s lead leg.
Green’s hands remain as low as they can go, and he connects with a body kick and is well out of range before Gibson can get him back with anything but his own kick to the ribs. Green slips to score a right hand, and Gibson cracks him with a left that stands Green up. Green tries to play it off like he is fine, and Gibson picks up on the tell and charges him. Green shakes it off and starts getting in Gibson’s head again, chattering at him and telling him to come at him. Green walks Gibson around the cage, and Gibson pitches a kick at him that Green catches. Green slips in a short left hand and splits the guard with a front kick, and he has Gibson flustered with his approach. Green ducks down to land a right hand, and Gibson buzzes him behind the ear. Green tells to keep throwing with him, and Gibson looks for knees instead and a possible clinch. Green shakes his head, dodges a few punches and salutes. The strange round ends, and scores could go either way.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Green
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Green
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Green
Round 2
Green wades out of his corner fearlessly, hands characteristically by his hips, and he uses head movement and footwork to avoid the early offense coming his direction. He gets in close to force Gibson off-balance from a front kick, and Green’s overhand right knocks Gibson to the floor. Gibson leaps back up and hurls a left hand at him, Green dodges and goes “woo,” and he proceeds to mess with Gibson while tossing one-twos at him. Gibson tosses out a low kick, and Green’s front kick response ricochets off the cup. Smith calls time, and Green starts clapping and saying “we gotta get this thing going” as if to hurry Gibson back to combat. The Canadian keeps ignoring him, so Green apologizes to Gibson’s father for the accidental foul. Smith warns Green to avoid kicking the low body, because it is the second kick he has gotten away with there. Gibson marches back and forth adjusting his cup, and Green is hanging out waiting for the recovery time to elapse and talking to anyone without earshot who bothers listening. The roughly two-minute break concludes with a clap of hands from the two fighters. When they resume, Green aims a side kick to the chest, and he wraps a kick around the guard. Gibson rushes him and throws a high kick to open up a level change, and he puts “King” on the floor and advances to side control in a hurry. Gibson clings with his right arm around the back of Green’s head, until Green scrambles to get back to his feet. Gibson holds him from behind in hopes of a mat return.
Gibson knees him in the chin and stomps at his toes, staying up close in the clinch to not give Green any space. Green nearly grabs the fence a few times, and Gibson drops down for a single. Green recovers his footing and pushes off Gibson’s face, and he mean mugs him while walking him down. A jab from Gibson opens a tiny cut on Green’s right cheek, one he ignores as he lumbers forward pitching long punches at him. Gibson sits down on a strong right hand, and Green partially rolls with it and offers back a body kick while Gibson is strafing to the side. They clash low kicks, and Green scores a left hand and points at his foe. Gibson throws back only to be well out of range, while Green can get to him with a long front kick to the sternum. Green clips his man with two crisp punches, and he looks for a hook third but is caught on the way in with a solid inside low kick that stumbles him. Green gathers his thoughts and puts on his poker face to start bombing Gibson with a barrage of punches. Gibson barely misses a spin right before the bell, and Green wipes his brow in a sign of relief that he did not get tagged with it. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Green
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Gibson
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gibson
Round 3
Like the previous rounds, Green is not remotely concerned about what comes his direction, even though Gibson landed flush on him a few times towards the end of the round. Gibson keeps his back to the fence, and Green further drives him back with a push kick to the solar plexus. Green aims a low kick and misses on his other, flashier kicks. Gibson reaches out with his own kick, and Green no-sells it. Green lands a couple more front kicks while Gibson is still processing, and he blocks a high kick and points to his arm as if to tell someone watching—like a judge—that it hit him on the arm. Green’s trash talk starts to get louder, and he starts to get a bit more amped up. Gibson stays on his bike, timing a kick from Green to shoot for a takedown. He takes Green to his seat, but Green pushes off and scampers back up within seconds.
Green goes for a right to the ribs, and he scores another right over the top in rapid succession. Gibson’s offense is limited to single strikes, like a huge right hand that Green barely dodges in time. Green strings together a number of punches ending with a solid left, and he starts to walk Gibson down doing the typical Diaz brother strut. Gibson narrowly avoids a one-two, but a second lands on his nose. He has a kick caught, and Green throws him to the wall and then surprises the Canadian by completing a sudden takedown. Green moves himself to north-south position and starts unleashing heavy right hands to the body, and Gibson is warned repeatedly for hooking his toes in the fence links. Smith has to slap at them a few times, all while Green is hammering “Fearless” with concussive hammerfists. The oddball fight ends with Green letting Gibson have it.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Green (30-27 Green)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Green (29-28 Green)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Green (29-28 Green)
The Official Result
Bobby Green def. Lance Gibson Jr. via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Cody picks Green, citing his experience and superior striking. He notes Gibson's lack of activity and short notice, and expects Green to keep the fight standing and outwork Gibson as he fades in later rounds. He sees a live betting opportunity.
Paul also picks Green, emphasizing the step down in competition for Green. He thinks Gibson's grappling threat is neutralized by Green's takedown defense and that Green's striking will be too much. He recommends waiting for a better price.
Angelo sees Ferreira as more dangerous and durable at this point, with more ways to win. He notes Green is a cleaner striker but Ferreira has power and BJJ. He is surprised Ferreira is almost a 2-to-1 favorite, as the fight feels closer on paper. He picks Ferreira but is not sure what to do with betting, possibly looking at the over 1.5 rounds.
Big Brady picks Diego Ferreira to win by first-round knockout. He is very worried about King Green's decline, citing the brutal Jalin Turner stoppage, his age (38), and poor recent performances. He notes Green has taken a lot of damage and doesn't look the same. In contrast, Ferreira is older but has less tread on the tires, barely fights, and still performs at a high level. He mentions Ferreira's power, citing knockouts of Michael Johnson and Mateusz Rębecki, and thinks he can finish Green by any method.
The Guru picks Carlos Diego Ferreira to beat Bobby Green, citing Ferreira's underrated skills and power. He believes Green is prone to getting knocked out, especially in big spots, and that Ferreira can finish him. The Guru notes Ferreira's close split decision with Beneil Dariush and his knockout of Michael Johnson. He predicts Green will have a decent first round but then get caught in the second or third.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Green | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maurício Ruffy | 1 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King Green | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maurício Ruffy | 1 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Green | 4 of 15 | 26% | 1 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurício Ruffy | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King Green | 4 of 15 | 26% | 1 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurício Ruffy | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ruffy (-470), Green (+360)
Round 1
Two 155-pound strikers will light up the T-Mobile Arena to open up the main card. Green (31-16-1, 1 NC; 13-11-1, 1 NC UFC) has seen better days but is still dangerous even at the age of 38, but he will have to mind his P’s and Q’s against the man 10 years his younger in Ruffy (11-1, 2-0 UFC). Before the frenetic action, referee Chris Tognoni makes sure to keep things official and starts the fight. Ruffy offers a glove, but Green would rather just fight. Green backs himself intentionally to the wall, hands low, ready to counter. Ruffy is composed rather than a marauder, and he blocks a push kick when standing in front of his opponent. Ruffy is keeping Green confused with his rangy punches and movement, and this results in a stalemate and stretches of inactivity. When Green kicks low, Ruffy rings his bell with a straight right hand. Green bounces off the wall and gives a right hand back, but it has far less mustard on it than the one that shook him up. Green surges forward with a left high and a right to the ribs, and chants for “Let’s Go Ruffy” start spreading. The Brazilian absorbs all of this energy from the audience and channels it like a Spirit Bomb, only instead of into his hand, he puts it into his right foot. A picture-perfect spin from Ruffy delivers the wheel kick square into the side of Green’s head, and Green is immediately unconscious and slumps face-first the ground like he got shot by a sniper. Absolutely incredible! Forget “Knockout of the Year,” that wheel kick is up there when it comes to “Knockout of the Decade,” much less one of the best in company history. Unreal. The crowd is electric, no one can hear anyone think. Knowing that there is nothing else he needs to do tonight, Ruffy stands stoically above his fallen opponent, while Tognoni sprints in to make sure Green does not take any more damage. Meanwhile, blood pours out of the nose of the flattened Green, who manages to come to and eventually makes it back to his feet. With plenty of energy left in the tank, Ruffy goes off to perform several flips and capoeira moves, sticking the landing each and every time to further wow the fans. The Fighting Nerds have one more highlight on the reel, and the victorious Ruffy dons his team’s famed glasses and gives commentator Joe Rogan a pair to sport as well. Knowing exactly what he wants next, Ruffy calls for a headlining opportunity against Beneil Dariush. The UFC would be hard pressed to pass that up. Wow. What a knockout. Mauricio Ruffy is for real.
The Official Result
Mauricio Ruffy def. Bobby Green R1 2:07 via KO (Spinning Wheel Kick)
Connor picks Ruffy despite acknowledging that stylistically, Green should be able to outbox him. He notes that Green has been getting hurt more often and fighting in a way that leaves him vulnerable to big punchers. Connor believes that even if Green has a good first round, he is likely to get knocked out eventually. He admits the line is too wide and that Ruffy has yet to prove himself against veteran talent.
Zane picks Green, hoping for a vintage performance. He believes that if Green doesn't get knocked out, he can outwork Ruffy with smarter reads and better cardio. Zane points out that Ruffy struggled against James Llontop, who is slow and clumsy, and that Green is a much more technical boxer. He acknowledges the risk but wants to see Green replicate his win over Nasrat Haqparast.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 15 of 21 | 71% | 15 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| King Green | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 15 of 21 | 71% | 15 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| King Green | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | 15 of 21 | 71% | 2 of 6 | 3 of 5 | 10 of 10 | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| King Green | 8 of 13 | 61% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paddy Pimblett | 15 of 21 | 71% | 2 of 6 | 3 of 5 | 10 of 10 | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| King Green | 8 of 13 | 61% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Green (-120), Pimblett (+100)
Round 1
While the last two fights are championship affairs with a Brit defending their throne, fans might be here for the people’s main event that is the “featured fight of the night.” No matter his new first name, for play-by-play purposes this Strikeforce veteran will be called by his surname, Green (32-15-1, 1 NC; 13-10-1, 1 NC UFC). He will try to take all the wind out of the sails of the raucous Manchester crowd, which is going bananas for Pimblett (21-3, 5-0 UFC). Referee Lukasz Bosacki can scarcely hear himself think, but he knows it is time and starts the fight between the beloved lightweights. Even having said earlier this week it is all business, the two choose not to touch gloves before slugging it out. Green’s hands are low as always, and he pokes at the front leg with a kick. Pimblett winds up with a much heavier kick on the inside, and he lands a second with emphasis. Pimblett sticks out a jab and checks a kick, and he sits down on an especially powerful calf kick. Green marches forward and starts talking trash, and Pimblett catches him with a counter as he backs off. Green brushes his shoulder when Pimblett lands on him, and the Brit lands a low kick as well. Green connects with a pair of stomping kicks to the knee, and he reaches a left hand to the midsection. Green kicks the front leg and is tripped up, and he acknowledges the strike and kicks at him. Green points at his adversary as he walks him down, and he tells Pimblett to hit him. Pimblett elects to kick the calf instead, and Green kicks him in the ribs in response. Green keeps jabbing with his front leg, and he shoots for a takedown and falls straight into a guillotine choke attempt. Green slips out of it, and Pimblett adjusts and locks down a triangle choke. Green rolls to the side but is still dangerously caught in the submission, and Pimblett starts celebrating as he leans back. Green struggles and gets rolled to his back, and he wrenches on the arm while crushing on Green’s carotid artery. Life leaves Green’s eyes as the submission deprives him completely of his consciousness, and Bosacki recognizes this and rescues the snoozing Green from further harm. Pimblett immediately lets go and leaps to the top of the cage as the audience explodes to celebrate the stoppage win for their star. He jumps out of the Octagon to high-five UFC chief Hunter Campbell, and the crowd is absolutely deafening. “The Baddy” passed the biggest test of his career with flying colors, putting the dangerous Green to sleep and becoming the first fighter to submit Green since 2009.
The Official Result
Paddy Pimblett def. Bobby Green R1 3:22 via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke)
Angelo picks King Green (Bobby Green) as the better striker with good takedown defense. He notes that Green's volume and defense are excellent, but he only bets half a unit because Green is fighting in enemy territory, could face a sketchy decision, and if taken down by Pimblett, he may not get back up. Angelo acknowledges Pimblett's grappling control but believes Green's striking will be the difference.
Cody is confident in King Green, citing his well-rounded skills and veteran savvy. He notes that Paddy Pimblett has looked unimpressive in his UFC fights, often losing rounds before getting finishes, and that his lifestyle and mindset are not conducive to long-term success. Cody believes Green's boxing and takedown defense will be too much, and that Paddy's path to victory is narrow. He predicts Green by decision.
Daniel picks King Green, impressed by his performance against Jim Miller where he overwhelmed a durable opponent. He believes Green's wrestling defense will hold up against Pimblett, and that Green's volume and power will be too much. He notes Pimblett gets hit often and Green can exploit that.
Daniel notes Paddy's early explosiveness but worries about his cardio, citing him pulling guard against Tony Ferguson. He thinks Bobby Green's age (37) and hands-down style could lead to him getting caught early. He leans Paddy but wants underdog odds to bet, expecting a close decision or early finish.
Jeff picks King Green, citing Green's volume and power. He thinks Pimblett will eventually get caught and knocked out, though he's not sure if it happens this week. He believes Green's wrestling defense is adequate and that Pimblett won't get him down.
Paul agrees with Cody, calling it a horrible matchup for Paddy. He highlights Green's takedown defense (only taken down once in last 10 fights) and his advantage on the feet. Paul expects Green to cruise to a decision, though he acknowledges the risk of a bad split decision in the UK. He also mentions the possibility of betting Green by decision at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Paddy Pimblett by submission (rear-naked choke), likely in the first or second round. He believes Pimblett can exploit Bobby Green's tendency to give up his back when defending takedowns. The Guru notes that Green was easily controlled on the ground by Islam Makhachev and that Pimblett has a size and strength advantage. He also thinks Pimblett will use kicks at range and wait for grappling opportunities, rather than brawling. The Guru is influenced by a recent interview with Pimblett, which increased his confidence.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Green | 1 | 186 of 319 | 58% | 187 of 320 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Jim Miller | 0 | 57 of 144 | 39% | 58 of 145 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King Green | 0 | 43 of 83 | 51% | 43 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jim Miller | 0 | 17 of 46 | 36% | 17 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | King Green | 0 | 61 of 115 | 53% | 61 of 115 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jim Miller | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 20 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | King Green | 1 | 82 of 121 | 67% | 83 of 122 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Jim Miller | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 21 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Green | 186 of 319 | 58% | 136 of 245 | 40 of 56 | 10 of 18 | 167 of 295 | 7 of 8 | 12 of 16 |
| Jim Miller | 57 of 144 | 39% | 29 of 103 | 10 of 18 | 18 of 23 | 55 of 141 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King Green | 43 of 83 | 51% | 26 of 57 | 12 of 19 | 5 of 7 | 43 of 82 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jim Miller | 17 of 46 | 36% | 9 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 17 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | King Green | 61 of 115 | 53% | 45 of 88 | 13 of 19 | 3 of 8 | 60 of 114 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jim Miller | 20 of 53 | 37% | 9 of 37 | 3 of 6 | 8 of 10 | 20 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | King Green | 82 of 121 | 67% | 65 of 100 | 15 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 64 of 99 | 6 of 6 | 12 of 16 |
| Jim Miller | 20 of 45 | 44% | 11 of 31 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 18 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans Bobby Green based on skill set, noting Green's better striking and takedown defense. However, he is not confident due to Green's recent knockout losses and Miller's resurgence. He calls the -200 odds absurd and advises staying away from betting.
Cody picks Bobby Green, citing his superior footwork, volume, and jab. He notes that Jim Miller is slower and more flat-footed now, and no longer relies on wrestling. Green's takedown defense is solid, and Miller is unlikely to wrestle. Cody thinks the fight will resemble a sparring match where Green picks Miller apart with the jab. He warns that Miller is a fan favorite and the crowd could influence judges, but on paper, Green's style defeats Miller. Cody expects a decision win for Green.
Connor picks Green, arguing that Miller's game is not suited to track down a mobile striker like Green. He notes that Miller is best when he can plant his feet in the middle distance, but Green will keep moving and counter. Connor believes Green's ability to fire back with better offense will be the difference, though Miller's kicks could be troublesome.
Daniel Vreeland picks Bobby Green, citing his speed, volume, and higher level of competition. He believes Green's striking and cardio will outpace Miller, despite concerns about Green's recent knockout loss. Vreeland notes Miller's momentum but trusts Green's technical edge.
Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He calls it a feel-good fight and is excited because Jim Miller is fighting on UFC 100, 200, and 300. He says Bobby Green always brings hype and entertainment. No prediction is given.
Green is the better technical striker and his defensive grappling is good enough to keep the fight upright. Miller might land some big shots early but Green will roll with them and put it on Miller in rounds two and three, winning on the scorecards.
Paul agrees, noting that Green's footwork and jab should keep Miller at bay. He mentions that Green is coming off a bad knockout loss to Jalin Turner, but Miller doesn't have the power to replicate that. Paul thinks Miller's best chance is to land a right hand and get a takedown, but Green's takedown defense is good. He expects Green to win a decision, possibly a clear one.
The MMA Guru picks Jim Miller to defeat Bobby Green by TKO in the second round. He predicts Miller will chop at Green's lead leg, find the chin after making Green hesitant, and notes Green's recent knockout loss to Jalin Turner may have affected him. He emphasizes Miller's momentum and ability to shoot takedowns.
Zane picks Green, believing his defensive awareness and skill will allow him to adjust as the fight goes on. He notes that Miller's meat-and-potatoes style is effective early but predictable, and Green's footwork and counters will take over. Zane acknowledges that Green has looked shaky recently but trusts his technical edge over Miller's plodding pressure.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalin Turner | 1 | 33 of 60 | 55% | 33 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| King Green | 0 | 15 of 26 | 57% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jalin Turner | 1 | 33 of 60 | 55% | 33 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| King Green | 0 | 15 of 26 | 57% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalin Turner | 33 of 60 | 55% | 26 of 48 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 8 | 18 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 19 |
| King Green | 15 of 26 | 57% | 5 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 14 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jalin Turner | 33 of 60 | 55% | 26 of 48 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 8 | 18 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 19 |
| King Green | 15 of 26 | 57% | 5 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 14 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Jalin Turner despite short notice, citing his size advantage and danger everywhere. He thinks Turner's reach and height will be a problem for Green, and that Green's hands-down style could get him caught. He expects an early finish but notes cardio concerns if the fight extends. He calls it a step down in competition for Turner.
Cody is torn but tentatively picks Turner. He acknowledges Turner's weight cut issues and short notice, but thinks Turner is faster, longer, and the better striker. He worries about Turner's cardio in later rounds but believes if Turner minds his distance, he can win. He considers waiting for weigh-ins and possibly betting Green live after the first round.
Lucrative James leans towards Bobby Green as a dog, noting that Jalin Turner has never won a decision and has a questionable chin. He believes if Green survives round one, the fight becomes 50-50, with Green having an edge in later rounds. He is not confident but sees value in Green at plus money.
Green is on a two-fight winning streak and has a volume-heavy style that could overwhelm Turner. Turner has lost two in a row and has had weight issues, plus he took this fight on short notice. Green's durability and pressure should allow him to outwork Turner, especially if the fight goes into deep waters. A decision win is predicted.
Paul already bet Bobby Green at plus money. He cites Green's durability, cardio, and the fact that Turner missed weight last time and is on short notice. He thinks Green can go hard three rounds and that Turner's cardio falls off. He also likes Green round three prop at +2000. He notes Green is historically a slow starter but believes he can take over late.
The MMA Guru picks Jalin Turner, citing his reach advantage, versatility, and ability to chop the legs and body. He believes Bobby Green struggles without a reach advantage and that Turner's dynamic striking will be too much. He expects a decision win for Turner, 30-27.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Fiziev to win but is not confident in a stoppage. He calls Fiziev the most dangerous striker in the division and a world-class striker. He acknowledges Green is tough and can grapple, but thinks Fiziev's striking and cardio will be too much. He has a prop bet on Fiziev winning by decision.
Big Brady thinks Fiziev is legit with powerful striking but notes he has slowed in third rounds. He respects Green's durability and wrestling, but believes Fiziev's takedown defense is solid. He predicts Fiziev will win rounds 1 and 2, possibly dropping the third, and win a 29-28 decision. He calls the -310 line disrespectful to Green.
Cody picks Fiziev, arguing that Bobby Green's lackadaisical style and poor ring IQ will be his downfall. He notes Fiziev's improvements in wrestling defense and his powerful striking. Cody thinks Fiziev will land big shots and chop Green's legs, leading to a finish or clear decision.
Daniel Levi picks Rafael Fiziev to stop Bobby Green, citing Fiziev's superior speed, power, and clean striking. He notes that Green plays with fire with his head movement and hands-down style, which will be punished by a precise kickboxer like Fiziev. He also mentions that Green has been stopped by strikes only twice before (Dustin Poirier and Tim Means) and expects Fiziev to add to that list. He is a huge fan of Green but believes the matchup favors Fiziev heavily.
Fiziev is a technical striker with great Muay Thai and improving MMA game. Green is durable and will pressure, but Fiziev can mix in takedowns and control the fight. Green is hard to finish, so a decision is likely. The line has moved due to hype, but Fiziev should win a close decision. He is slowly entering the top tier.
Paul disagrees with Cody and picks Bobby Green as a dog. He thinks Green is underrated and that Fiziev's price is too high. Paul believes Green's durability and boxing could lead to a decision win, and likes the plus money on Green by decision.
The MMA Guru picks Rafael Fiziev over Bobby Green. He highlights Fiziev's speed, power, takedown defense, and body kicks. He predicts Fiziev will win the first two rounds with his striking, and Green may take the third but it won't be enough. He expects a 29-28 unanimous decision for Fiziev.
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