Career Averages - Sean O'Malley
Career Averages - Raulian Paiva
Sean O'Malley
Raulian Paiva
Sean O'Malley - Fight History
AJ thinks O'Malley will be too fast for Zahabi, out-boxing and out-kickboxing him. He notes Zahabi is a pressure boxer who is slower and worse at everything O'Malley does, and doesn't bring a serious wrestling threat. He expects O'Malley to get his win streak going.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 48 of 92 | 52% | 67 of 111 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Song Yadong | 0 | 36 of 94 | 38% | 69 of 130 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 2:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 16 of 26 | 61% | 22 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Song Yadong | 0 | 10 of 23 | 43% | 23 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 | |
| 2 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 20 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Song Yadong | 0 | 14 of 31 | 45% | 34 of 53 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:28 | |
| 3 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 25 of 46 | 54% | 25 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Song Yadong | 0 | 12 of 40 | 30% | 12 of 40 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean O'Malley | 48 of 92 | 52% | 23 of 53 | 16 of 28 | 9 of 11 | 48 of 92 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Song Yadong | 36 of 94 | 38% | 15 of 55 | 2 of 6 | 19 of 33 | 36 of 94 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean O'Malley | 16 of 26 | 61% | 6 of 13 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 16 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Song Yadong | 10 of 23 | 43% | 0 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 15 | 10 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sean O'Malley | 7 of 20 | 35% | 1 of 8 | 5 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Song Yadong | 14 of 31 | 45% | 8 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 10 | 14 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sean O'Malley | 25 of 46 | 54% | 16 of 32 | 5 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 25 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Song Yadong | 12 of 40 | 30% | 7 of 29 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 8 | 12 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: O’Malley (-205), Song (+170)
Round 1
A bantamweight striker’s delight will treat fans in the co-headliner, as O'Malley (18-3, 1 NC; 10-3, 1 NC UFC) looks to get back on championship track. He will face off against underrated Team Alpha Male product Song (22-8-1, 1 NC; 11-3-1 UFC), whose only losses in the Octagon after 15 walks are to Kyler Phillips, Cory Sandhagen and Petr Yan. The third man in the cage tonight for this one will be referee Herb Dean, and gloves are touched before they start to fly.
Immediately after the touch, Song lets fly a low kick that O'Malley just stares at. O'Malley advances, peeling back right before reaching his opponent, and does this a couple times. Song kicks him in the front leg again a few times, and O'Malley answers with one back. The two bounce back and forth without throwing much for a good 30 seconds, until Song springs into action with a few punches. O'Malley potshots him with a left after Song completes his volley, but he cannot get out of the way of the oncoming kick and swarming offense. They trade spinning kicks, skimming them off one another, with O'Malley’s to the body the more effective. O'Malley jabs with front kicks to the body to stave off Song, who is slowly works his way in.
Song kicks the front leg and scores a right on the outside, only for O'Malley to counter him back. The result is a lot of tit-for-tat offense, where one man lands and the other tries to pay him back. Song rushes out with a left hand, and O'Malley digs a couple strikes to the body. Song walks through a front kick to lash out at the lead wheel of the Montanan, and he tries to corner O'Malley but cannot quite get a bead on his movement. Song drives home another hefty kick, and he charges in for a takedown attempt and puts O'Malley on his back. O'Malley defends with a guillotine choke, and when that fails, O'Malley shrugs to someone as if he thinks he should immediately be stood back up. Song grinds him out for the remainder of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Song
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Song
Round 2
Like the previous round, Song starts off with a glove touch and a calf kick. When O'Malley stumbles from the kick, Song tries to take advantage of it, and he just misses with a spinning back fist. Song walks through a front kick to plant a right hand on the forehead, and O'Malley no-sells it and looks for a counter. Song bounces in with a left hand and a high kick, and O'Malley slides away and responds with a body shot. Song goes to the front leg again, with O'Malley switching stances and taking damage on both as welts and redness are present on both legs. Song pounds the former champ with a left hand, shooting in for a single that he uses to drag O'Malley to a knee. O'Malley wall-walks to get back up with Song’s hands wrapped around his waist, and he elbows Song’s arms in hopes of breaking the grip.
Song knees the back of the thigh repeatedly, and he grabs the fence to reposition himself and then holds his arm low to defend some of the knee strikes. Song sweeps his post arm, and he transitions to a double and hits it while O'Malley looks for a guillotine, and the Team Alpha Male-trained athlete easily breaks out of it to establish top control. When O'Malley scoots back to his feet, Song follows him and hammers his front leg before blasting him in the face with a left hand. O'Malley jabs and gets countered by an overhand right, but it is his low kick that most gets O'Malley’s attention. Song loads up on power punches as he walks down the pink-shorted athlete, and O'Malley is able to sway and evade the worst of them. O'Malley gets off a body kick, and Song kicks the leg once before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Song
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Song
Round 3
O'Malley knows that an advancing Song is coming to strike him, so he makes sure to get out of the way before it can get to him. Song does not throw it, instead pawing out his jab to set up his looping right hooks that buzz the tower repeatedly. O'Malley jabs him to the belly, and his leg gets kicked hard. Song points to his leg after checking a kick, as if to taunt O'Malley for throwing it. He then chambers and fires multiple strong low kicks, ignoring a couple left hooks that catch him at least partially when he is off-balance. O'Malley sticks his foe with a right, and he slips away from the increasingly telegraphed counter. Song continues to chase down “Suga Sean,” darting after a takedown and pulling back when it is not there. O'Malley busts up Song’s nose to start it trickling down the mouth, and he does not register it as he stays within kickboxing range practically the whole time.
O'Malley flashes out jabs to the head and body, and he stuffs a takedown as boos rain down. Song just misses on a looping left hand, and he pushes out a right and dings O'Malley when ducking. O'Malley gathers his thoughts and belts the Chinese competitor with a crisp right hand. Song ducks and feints his way forward, coming out behind left hooks while O'Malley is the quicker, more direct striker with less arc on his swings. Song keeps walking the former champ down, and he misses by an inch with a spinning back elbow. When O'Malley counters him, Song smiles and goes after a takedown. O'Malley tosses him aside and knees him right on the chin, and a bloodied Song just grins and walks forward. O'Malley gets in a left, and he gets Song’s attention further with a right. Song points to the ground to initiate a brawl, and O'Malley motions to flip a coin and then fires off a high kick. The match comes to a close, with the first round likely the difference maker.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley (29-28 Song)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley (29-28 Song)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley (29-28 Song)
The Official Result
Sean O’Malley def. Yadong Song via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Sean O'Malley, arguing that O'Malley's best version (when he was partying and podcasting) would win. He believes O'Malley's clean footwork and accuracy will exploit Yadong's lack of striking defense. He notes Yadong is hittable and throws with power, but O'Malley should pick him apart. He hopes O'Malley returns to his old lifestyle for the win.
Big Brady notes O'Malley's losses came when opponents took him down repeatedly, but Song Yadong averages less than one takedown per 15 minutes. He believes O'Malley is the better striker and will win a striking match. He worries about O'Malley's mentality after two losses to Merab but expects the best version to win by decision.
Cody picks Sean O'Malley but is hesitant due to O'Malley's potential lack of motivation and Song Yadong's durability. He notes O'Malley's length and accuracy should allow him to win the first two rounds, but worries about a gritty third round. He suggests O'Malley by decision as a prop.
Connor also picks O'Malley, emphasizing that Song Yadong is an unimaginative fighter who lacks variety in his approach. He notes that Song's best path to victory (low kicks and wrestling) is possible but unlikely given O'Malley's mobility and range. Connor believes O'Malley's swagger and ability to make opponents hesitant will be key, and that Song's inability to cut off the cage will leave him chasing O'Malley all night.
Daniel Vreeland picks Song Yadong to win by decision. He criticizes O'Malley's recent timidity and reliance on counters, and notes that O'Malley has talked about retirement. Vreeland believes Song has the speed, leg kicks, and wrestling to compete with O'Malley, and that his well-rounded approach and power will be the deciding factors. He also mentions that Song has taken down Peter Yan, which bodes well for his wrestling advantage.
James believes O'Malley is a level above everywhere, with superior fight IQ and striking IQ. He expects O'Malley to stay at range, pot shot, and win via decision. He notes Song's durability but thinks O'Malley's smart game plan will prevail. James also mentions O'Malley's high fight IQ and preparation with Paul Czech.
The host sees this as a favorable matchup for O'Malley, who faces a fellow striker in Song Yadong. He believes O'Malley's striking wizardry, footwork, and trap-setting will allow him to out-strike Yadong and potentially land a knockout. The host notes uncertainty about O'Malley's mentality after two losses but thinks this style matchup will bring back the 'Sugar Show'. He does not see enough value on Yadong to pick the upset.
Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing O'Malley's 5-inch reach advantage and Song Yadong's slow starts. He believes O'Malley will use his footwork and volume to win a decision, though he notes Song's grappling improvements could be a factor. Paul sees O'Malley by decision as the most likely outcome.
The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley by decision, noting Song Yadong's durability and toughness. He believes O'Malley's reach, kicks, and power will be key, and that Yadong's facial cuts could lead to a stoppage. He predicts a 30-27 decision.
Zane picks O'Malley confidently, noting that Song Yadong is a plodding striker with poor footwork and range management, which plays perfectly into O'Malley's sniping style. He points out that Song has historically struggled against mobile fighters who fight off the back foot (e.g., Kyler Phillips, Cory Sandhagen). Zane also mentions that O'Malley's reach and footwork will make it hard for Song to close distance, and that O'Malley's durability is sufficient to handle Song's power.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 52 of 115 | 45% | 141 of 215 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 1 | 0 | 6:29 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 38 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 17 of 37 | 45% | 48 of 72 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:54 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 16 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 23 of 63 | 36% | 24 of 64 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 19 of 33 | 57% | 19 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 12 of 15 | 80% | 69 of 79 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 4:18 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 52 of 115 | 45% | 33 of 92 | 13 of 14 | 6 of 9 | 29 of 86 | 8 of 10 | 15 of 19 |
| Sean O'Malley | 31 of 57 | 54% | 14 of 35 | 15 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 30 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 17 of 37 | 45% | 10 of 30 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 27 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 7 |
| Sean O'Malley | 12 of 23 | 52% | 5 of 15 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 23 of 63 | 36% | 18 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 7 | 20 of 58 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean O'Malley | 19 of 33 | 57% | 9 of 19 | 9 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 12 of 15 | 80% | 5 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 12 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo believes the first fight was a clear win for Merab, not close as some recall. He thinks Sean's camp is already making excuses by calling Merab the GOAT. He sees no significant improvements from Sean and expects the same pressure wrestling and cardio to overwhelm Sean again. He dismisses concerns about Merab's toe injury as irrelevant.
Big Brady picks Merab Dvalishvili but is very hesitant. He believes Merab should win easily based on his wrestling, but worries about corrupt judges giving rounds to O'Malley if the fight is close. He notes that O'Malley was compromised in the first fight and that the UFC wants O'Malley to win. He ultimately goes with his gut that Merab gets it done by decision, but hates the price tag and suggests O'Malley plus 5.5 might be a good look.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Merab. He emphasizes that O'Malley's instinctual reactions in wrestling are a deep-seated issue that will be hard to overcome. Connor notes that O'Malley's go-to defense of giving up his back and handfighting works against lesser wrestlers but is suicide against Merab. He thinks O'Malley can improve but still loses.
Dvalishvili's high pressure, high pace, and insane cardio are too much for most opponents. Even if O'Malley learned from their first matchup, he won't be able to set up his traps or striking wizardry. Dvalishvili will control the fight, grind it out, and win on the scorecards to remain champion.
The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley to win by TKO or decision, citing adjustments and O'Malley's freshness. He believes the first fight was close and O'Malley can improve his takedown defense. He notes Merab's activity and lack of motivation, and thinks O'Malley's striking will be the difference. He predicts O'Malley wins rounds 1, 3, and 5, and possibly gets a TKO in the second or third round. He also mentions potential judging favoritism for O'Malley.
Zane picks Merab Dvalishvili, noting that O'Malley's wrestling defense is fundamentally flawed against Merab's relentless pressure. He believes O'Malley will be better prepared but still expects Merab to force him into a defensive shell and win via pace and takedowns. Zane references the Umar fight as evidence that Merab can be pushed but still wins.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 47 of 89 | 52% | 49 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 82 of 164 | 50% | 214 of 310 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 10:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 14 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 16 of 30 | 53% | 25 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 18 of 38 | 47% | 65 of 92 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:12 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 17 of 38 | 44% | 25 of 46 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 | |
| 4 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 21 of 32 | 65% | 74 of 89 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:37 | |
| 5 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 10 of 26 | 38% | 25 of 42 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 47 of 89 | 52% | 22 of 48 | 23 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 45 of 85 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Sean O'Malley | 82 of 164 | 50% | 55 of 130 | 4 of 6 | 23 of 28 | 29 of 85 | 8 of 14 | 45 of 65 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 14 of 28 | 50% | 6 of 16 | 6 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean O'Malley | 16 of 30 | 53% | 13 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 18 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 7 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 5 of 10 | 50% | 3 of 5 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Sean O'Malley | 18 of 38 | 47% | 14 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 31 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 11 of 21 | 52% | 7 of 13 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean O'Malley | 17 of 38 | 44% | 6 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 12 | 11 of 29 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | |
| 4 | Merab Dvalishvili | 6 of 9 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Sean O'Malley | 21 of 32 | 65% | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 19 | |
| 5 | Merab Dvalishvili | 11 of 21 | 52% | 2 of 8 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Sean O'Malley | 10 of 26 | 38% | 2 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 9 | 5 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 7 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dvalishvili (-285), O'Malley (+230)
Round 1
The main event will be refereed by Jason Herzog. O'Malley starts off with a spinning back kick to the body. Dvalishvili is able to walk O'Malley back towards the cage. Nice jab by O'Malley, who is also going to the body with punches from afar. Dvalishvili is eating jabs, having some issues with closing the distance early. O'Malley is keeping space with kicks and his jab. Dvalishvili is keeping the pressure on, forcing O'Malley to constantly move. A right hand for Dvalishvili lands, and the champion is then able to get a takedown. O'Malley is quick to get back up, although he grabs the fence. Dvalishvili stays clinched and leans a knee. O'Malley lands his own knee, but gets off-balance and slips. Dvalishvili lands a nice left hook before going for a double-leg takedown. O'Malley does a good job defending, but Dvalishvili is able to pick him up anyhow. Dvalishvili is in full guard. Dvalishvili slips in an elbow and several short hammerfists.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Round 2
O'Malley takes the center of the cage. Dvalishvili lands a body kick, while O'Malley misses a spinning back kick. A nice right hand to the body for "Suga." Dvalishvili counters O'Malley with two stinging right hands. O'Malley answers back with a strong right hand of his own. Dvalishvili is throwing kicks to the body. O'Malley's movement is much better this round. O'Malley lands a nice jab. Dvalishvili goes for a takedown, but O'Malley escapes from the cage. The round hits the halfway mark. O'Malley jabs to the body. Dvalishvili goes for another takedown, but O'Malley shucks him off and lands a nice left hand. Much better round for the challenger. Dvalishvili lands a right hand and goes for a takedown, but eats a left hand while entering. O'Malley is able to stay upright and hits the champ with a straight right as he exits. A big right hand for Dvalishvili, who keeps the pressure on as the round ends. Much closer round.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Round 3
15 minutes to go. Dvalishvili opens with an overhand right and rushes the challenger. O'Malley lands a solid counter, but Dvalishvili keeps the pressure on and dumps "Suga" to the ground. Dvalishvili is in guard. O'Malley is too happy to sit in guard and is just allowing Dvalishvili to be in control. Dvalishvili is landing shots to the body and slips an elbow in. A lot of time is getting eaten up. Dvalishvili advances into half guard. O'Malley gives up his back in order to get to his feet. Dvalishvili lands a slick knee to the head. Dvalishvili puts O'Malley immediately back down after he gets back to his feet. The fight is fully in Dvalishvili's control. Dvalishvili is in half guard and landing punches with 30 seconds left. Dvalishvili scrambles well into north-south position and is able to lock in a modified guillotine choke. This looks tight, and O'Malley taps. It's over, and Dvalishvili retains with his second-ever submission win.
The Official Result
Merab Dvalishvili def. Sean O'Malley via Submission (Modified Guillotine Choke); R3, 4:42.
Angelo picks Sean O'Malley but does not bet. He notes O'Malley has incredible accuracy and power, and only needs one shot to finish, while Merab has a suspect chin and a cut over his eye plus possible staph infection that could affect his cardio. However, he acknowledges that a healthy Merab could shoot 550 takedowns and win a boring decision. He is on O'Malley's side but too much of a coward to bet, though he mentions Jacob has bet on O'Malley.
Big Brady picks O'Malley, emphasizing damage over control. He notes Dvalishvili's game is takedown attempts with little damage, while O'Malley has power and finishing ability. He predicts O'Malley will land big shots and possibly knock out Dvalishvili in the second round, though a damage-based decision is also possible.
Cody believes Merab's wrestling and cardio will be too much for O'Malley, especially given O'Malley's inactivity and injury concerns. He notes that O'Malley's takedown defense hasn't improved enough and that Merab can make the fight look easier by pushing the pace early. He sees a unanimous decision win for Merab.
Daniel Vreeland picks Sean O'Malley, emphasizing that Merab takes a shot in almost every fight and O'Malley will land that one. He notes Merab's top control is not great and people get back up, differentiating him from Aljamain Sterling. He believes O'Malley is getting an easier fight than against Sterling because Merab is more hitable and susceptible to being countered.
Daniel picks Sean O'Malley to win, citing O'Malley's superior striking accuracy, footwork, and ability to fight going backwards. He believes O'Malley's teep kicks and straight shots will counter Merab's looping punches and pressure. Daniel also notes O'Malley's brown belt under Cesar Gracie and dismisses cardio concerns, but acknowledges Merab's takedown volume could be a factor if he closes distance.
Jeff Fox picks Sean O'Malley because he is a striker with a big reach advantage and has cleared every hurdle. He acknowledges Merab could take him down and grind out a win, but believes O'Malley can piece him up on the feet and has shown solid grappling.
Lucrative James believes the odds are slightly off, with Merab as a -305 favorite. He notes that Sean O'Malley has more margin for improvement after a close first fight where he hurt Merab in the fifth round. He sees value in O'Malley at +255 and plans to bet him, though he acknowledges Merab's wrestling and cardio make him the likely winner. He emphasizes betting value over picking the winner.
Dvalishvili has shown great durability and will stick on O'Malley like white on rice, not giving him the space to generate knockout power. Expects Dvalishvili to put O'Malley through the ringer, possibly approaching 50 takedown attempts, and win on the scorecards.
Paul thinks Merab's game plan is clear and that O'Malley's only chance is a puncher's chance. He points out that O'Malley hasn't fought since the first loss and has been nursing injuries, while Merab has been active and improving. He expects Merab to control the fight with wrestling and win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley by TKO in the first or second round. He notes Merab has a staph infection and a cut over his eye, which could be exploited. He believes O'Malley's footwork and takedown defense will neutralize Merab's wrestling, and that O'Malley's upward knees and left hook will be key. He also suggests the UFC may favor O'Malley and that an early stoppage is possible if Merab gets hurt.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 230 of 356 | 64% | 232 of 358 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Marlon Vera | 0 | 89 of 241 | 36% | 89 of 241 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 27 of 36 | 75% | 27 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marlon Vera | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 51 of 83 | 61% | 51 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marlon Vera | 0 | 16 of 46 | 34% | 16 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 35 of 58 | 60% | 35 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Marlon Vera | 0 | 17 of 54 | 31% | 17 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 56 of 84 | 66% | 57 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marlon Vera | 0 | 26 of 73 | 35% | 26 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 61 of 95 | 64% | 62 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marlon Vera | 0 | 21 of 47 | 44% | 21 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean O'Malley | 230 of 356 | 64% | 150 of 268 | 61 of 68 | 19 of 20 | 227 of 352 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Marlon Vera | 89 of 241 | 36% | 41 of 165 | 14 of 35 | 34 of 41 | 85 of 235 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean O'Malley | 27 of 36 | 75% | 7 of 14 | 10 of 12 | 10 of 10 | 27 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marlon Vera | 9 of 21 | 42% | 1 of 7 | 1 of 5 | 7 of 9 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sean O'Malley | 51 of 83 | 61% | 36 of 66 | 11 of 12 | 4 of 5 | 51 of 83 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marlon Vera | 16 of 46 | 34% | 7 of 29 | 0 of 5 | 9 of 12 | 16 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sean O'Malley | 35 of 58 | 60% | 21 of 43 | 13 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 35 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marlon Vera | 17 of 54 | 31% | 7 of 39 | 4 of 8 | 6 of 7 | 17 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Sean O'Malley | 56 of 84 | 66% | 42 of 70 | 11 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 56 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marlon Vera | 26 of 73 | 35% | 15 of 56 | 5 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 26 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Sean O'Malley | 61 of 95 | 64% | 44 of 75 | 16 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 58 of 91 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Marlon Vera | 21 of 47 | 44% | 11 of 34 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 17 of 43 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Marlon Vera as a dog, noting that underdogs have won five of seven main events in 2024. He thinks Vera's durability and power will be key, as O'Malley is a counter striker who may not engage. He also mentions the Miami crowd may favor Vera. He suggests betting the over on rounds.
Big Brady picks Sean O'Malley to win by decision, but is not feeling great about it. He notes that O'Malley is the better striker with more volume and accuracy, but worries about the later rounds as O'Malley has never been past three rounds. He believes Vera needs a knockout to win, and O'Malley should do enough to win a decision.
Cody believes O'Malley has improved significantly since the first fight, especially in managing space and distance. He thinks O'Malley will win on volume, similar to the Chris Moutinho fight, but acknowledges that Vera is durable and could come on late. He respects Vera but sticks with O'Malley as the pick, though he won't bet the moneyline.
Daniel Vreeland picks Sean O'Malley, emphasizing that O'Malley has improved his footwork and ability to cut angles. He notes that O'Malley's cerebral approach allows him to set traps, as he did against Aljamain Sterling. Vreeland argues that Vera fights by downloading information and then exploding, but O'Malley controls what Vera sees. He believes Vera's habit of giving up early rounds is dangerous against a finisher like O'Malley. Vreeland concludes that O'Malley is the better striker, longer, more explosive, and younger.
Daniel leans towards O'Malley to defend his belt, but he has significant concerns about O'Malley's durability and cardio. He notes that O'Malley will likely light up Vera early, but worries that O'Malley may gas out from beating on Vera, allowing Vera to take over late. Daniel references O'Malley's fatigue in the second round against Yan and Vera's proven durability and finishing ability. He also mentions that Vera's camp issues don't sway him. Ultimately, he picks O'Malley but calls it a 'dog or pass' betting situation.
Jeff Fox picks Sean O'Malley, noting that Vera is essentially the same fighter as in their first fight while O'Malley has improved significantly. He highlights O'Malley's improved footwork and ability to cut angles, as seen in the Aljamain Sterling fight. Fox also praises O'Malley's cerebral game, setting traps and controlling what his opponent sees. He believes Vera gives up early rounds and then has to press, which plays into O'Malley's hands. Fox is confident that O'Malley's striking, length, and youth will lead to a win.
O'Malley is the better technical striker with great fight IQ and trap-setting ability. He showed discipline and patience in his win over Sterling. However, Vera has never been knocked down in the UFC and is a slow starter who thrives in five-round fights. O'Malley may not get the early knockout, and if Vera finds his groove late, it could be competitive. I still pick O'Malley to win by decision, as his striking wizardry should allow him to outwork Vera over 25 minutes. I am passing on betting this fight due to the -300 line and Vera's durability.
Paul highlights Vera's slow-starting nature but five-round cardio and durability. He notes that O'Malley has not been tested in late rounds and that Vera's pressure and toughness will allow him to take over in rounds 3-5. He also points to a trend of underdogs winning main events recently and Vera's life-changing motivation.
The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley, predicting a boring fight where O'Malley uses low kicks and range to outpoint Vera. He argues O'Malley's feints are more dangerous because he can actually land the strikes he feints. He believes Vera will struggle to land his power shots and O'Malley will win a clear decision, possibly with a robbery if close. He notes O'Malley's underrated chin and better movement in the larger cage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 17 of 35 | 48% | 24 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Aljamain Sterling | 1 | 25 of 35 | 71% | 26 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 20 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Aljamain Sterling | 1 | 17 of 21 | 80% | 18 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean O'Malley | 17 of 35 | 48% | 3 of 12 | 3 of 10 | 11 of 13 | 16 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Aljamain Sterling | 25 of 35 | 71% | 18 of 25 | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 18 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean O'Malley | 13 of 26 | 50% | 0 of 5 | 2 of 8 | 11 of 13 | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Aljamain Sterling | 8 of 14 | 57% | 3 of 6 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sean O'Malley | 4 of 9 | 44% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Aljamain Sterling | 17 of 21 | 80% | 15 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 18 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sterling (-258), O’Malley (+210)
Round 1
In the main attraction inside of the
Boston Garden
FleetCenter
TD Banknorth Garden
TD Garden, two men with no particular affinity to Beantown will collide for bantamweight gold. In the truest sense of the overused phrase, this is a pure grappler vs. striker affair, one that pits defending champ Sterling (23-3, 15-3 UFC) against the exceptionally accurate O’Malley (16-1, 1 NC; 8-1, 1 NC UFC). Should Sterling get his hand raised, he will set the record for the most consecutive defenses in the division’s history, while O’Malley can become the second champion to make his way to the promotion from Dana White’s Contender Series – Jamahal Hill was the first. There is nothing more that needs to be said from these two or about these two, and referee Marc Goddard brings the two together to make the title fight official. The staredown lasts from the moment Bruce Buffer starts speaking through to part of the introductions, and they are intense. They do touch gloves, and it’s on with the show. When they come together, Sterling is quick to swat O’Malley’s hands down. Sterling leaps forward with front kicks and side kicks, and he reaches out with long jabs while O’Malley stays out of reach. Sterling lands a solid leg kick as he races after O’Malley, and O’Malley responds with a front kick. Sterling keeps busy with kicks to any target, and O’Malley jabs to the body. O’Malley pushes the pace and draws a reaction out of his opponent, and the crowd rains down a profane chant against the champion. Sterling puts his foot on the gas, and he leans back from a long left hand that comes at his chin. The two take turns leading the dance, but O’Malley’s work rate is quite low through the first half of the round. O’Malley feints and fakes his way in, and he has to block a body kick that gets past his guard. Sterling chips away at the lead leg, and he absorbs a front kick on the ribs. Sterling peppers O’Malley with three low kicks before O’Malley gives him a stomping kick back to his knee. Sterling’s inside calf kicks force a stance switch early, and O’Malley lunges forward but does not fire off anything. Sterling reacts significantly when O’Malley is about to strike, and he picks at O’Malley’s leg while strafing to the side. O’Malley drops his hands to taunt Sterling into coming at him, and Sterling keeps ripping leg kicks and little else. Sterling blazes past his foe with a kick, and O’Malley settles down and fires off a spinning back kick that backs him off. Sterling shoots in for a single, and he jams O’Malley up against the fence while holding his foe’s leg in the air. Sterling lands several short punches, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Round 2
The second round begins with the two rushing towards one another, and O’Malley lashes out with a kick that he misses and falls over after throwing. Sterling comes at him and pursues a takedown, and O’Malley backs himself against the wall to stay up. O’Malley shuts it down and drops back to line up a right hand, and Sterling misses with a punch and gets cracked right on the chin. Sterling crashes down to the ground on his face, and he turns to his side in an effort to get his wits about him. O’Malley follows him down and clubs him with hammerfists, and Sterling is moving but still taking damage. O’Malley continues his bombardment of punches, and Goddard is closely watching over things. Sterling turns over and looks to reach out with his left arm for a potential takedown, and Goddard waves the fight off. Some may consider it an early stoppage, given how Sterling was still moving and defending himself. Nevertheless, the fight is over and O’Malley is now the UFC’s bantamweight champion, and he is the second fighter off the Contender Series to claim a UFC strap. The landscape of the 135-pound weight class has now changed drastically, and a wealth of options present themselves for O’Malley first defense and upcoming title reign. Marlon Vera, Merab Dvalishvili, Umar Nurmagomedov and a few others are right in contention, and it will be interesting to see how it turns out. In his post-fight interview, O’Malley mentions that he would be up for his first defense against Vera this December, and Vera immediately responded on social media with a post of dollar signs and bags of cash. If that is the fight the UFC makes for its Dec. 16 pay-per-view card, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Sean O’Malley def. Aljamain Sterling R2 0:51 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Aljamain Sterling, expecting his wrestling to take over as Sean O'Malley slows down in the later rounds. He notes that O'Malley gassed in a three-round fight and this is five rounds. He thinks Sterling could win by submission but acknowledges O'Malley's toughness and striking threat. He believes Sterling's range management and takedowns will be the difference.
Big Brady picks Sean O'Malley to win by fourth-round knockout, but admits he's terrified of Sterling's early grappling. He believes O'Malley can stuff takedowns and make Sterling work, causing Sterling to slow down. Brady notes O'Malley's striking advantage and power, and thinks if O'Malley survives the first few rounds, he can finish Sterling late.
Cody believes Sterling's grappling and wrestling are a notch above O'Malley's, and that Sterling will take O'Malley down, control him, and win rounds. He notes that O'Malley's camp lacks confidence, and that the line is inflated due to O'Malley's popularity. He expects Sterling to win by decision or submission, and likes the value at -260.
Daniel Levi leans toward Aljamain Sterling, acknowledging that Sterling should be favored but questioning whether the -255 price is warranted. He notes that Sterling has a clear path to victory if O'Malley has no answer when his back is taken, but if O'Malley can stretch the fight out, all bets are off. Levi mentions that Sterling's cardio fades in championship rounds due to massive weight cuts, which could open a late path for O'Malley. He also highlights that O'Malley's confidence and training with Taki Mendez might help him survive early grappling exchanges. Ultimately, Levi picks Sterling but is not fully confident, as he is intrigued by O'Malley's potential to survive and capitalize late.
Lucrative James picks Sean O'Malley, citing his distance management, footwork, and underrated jiu-jitsu. He believes Sterling's frequent weight cuts and recent activity may affect his performance. He sees value on O'Malley's moneyline and thinks O'Malley could get a knockout or win rounds on damage.
Sterling has a clear grappling advantage and should be able to take O'Malley down and control him. O'Malley's takedown defense has been a weakness, and Sterling's pressure and back-taking ability will be key. Sterling will likely win a decision rather than chase a finish, conserving energy. The decision prop is the best play.
The MMA Guru picks Aljamain Sterling over Sean O'Malley. He believes Sterling's grappling will be the difference, as O'Malley will be worried about takedowns. He notes Sterling's tricky movement and ability to pressure O'Malley backwards. He predicts Sterling will take O'Malley down early, get his back, and win by TKO via ground and pound in round 1 or 2. He thinks Sterling will prove a point.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 58 of 96 | 60% | 97 of 139 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 5:44 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 84 of 163 | 51% | 91 of 171 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 19 of 31 | 61% | 28 of 41 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 23 of 55 | 41% | 23 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 24 of 39 | 61% | 45 of 62 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:42 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 21 of 37 | 56% | 22 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 15 of 26 | 57% | 24 of 36 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 1:52 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 40 of 71 | 56% | 46 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean O'Malley | 58 of 96 | 60% | 24 of 57 | 13 of 18 | 21 of 21 | 47 of 81 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 9 |
| Petr Yan | 84 of 163 | 51% | 63 of 132 | 6 of 14 | 15 of 17 | 80 of 158 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean O'Malley | 19 of 31 | 61% | 5 of 15 | 3 of 5 | 11 of 11 | 17 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Petr Yan | 23 of 55 | 41% | 13 of 37 | 3 of 9 | 7 of 9 | 23 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sean O'Malley | 24 of 39 | 61% | 12 of 25 | 7 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 29 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 7 |
| Petr Yan | 21 of 37 | 56% | 17 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 21 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Sean O'Malley | 15 of 26 | 57% | 7 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Petr Yan | 40 of 71 | 56% | 33 of 63 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 36 of 67 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Yan (-265), O’Malley (+225)
Round 1
Yan and O’Malley launch into action at the prompting of referee Jason Herzog. Yan is in orthodox stance; O’Mally southpaw. Yan stalks forward as O’Malley slides around the outside of the cage. Yan switches stances and flicks out his right jab, then switches back. Herzog shouts a warning to O’Malley to watch his extended fingers. Yan lands a right low kick and eats a hard right hand counter. O’Malley connects with a right low kick. Halfway through the round, Yan changes levels for a double-leg near the fence. O’Malley backs into the cage, trying to keep the Russian from taking his back. Yan gives up on the takedown and they return to the center. Yan lands a series of three left hands upstairs, then drops for another takedown. This time, he hoists the taller man and dumps him to the canvas. With a minute left, Yan is in O’Malley’s guard. O’Malley goes to stand and eats some punches on the way up, but they return to their feet. O’Malley shoots a takedown at the 10-second clapper, briefly takes Yan’s back in the ensuing scramble, but they separate before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Yan
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Round 2
Yan lands an outside low kick, then one to the inside of O’Malley’s lead leg. O’Malley comes back with a huge uppercut that has Yan hurt badly. Yan staggers away as O’Malley gives chase, landing more punches. Yan turns the tables with a massive punch of his own and now O’Malley is rocked. Yan ducks under and drags O’Malley to the mat. Yan is in O’Malley’s guard as O’Malley squirms and looks to escape. O’Malley pops up and Yan drives him to the fence. O’Malley grounds himself with a hand on the canvas to forestall knees to the head. They separate and a moment later, Yan pushes O’Malley back to the floor with a nice inside trip. O’Malley pops right back up. Under two minutes to go and Yan is matching O’Malley down. O’Malley pushes him back with a kick up the middle, and slips the counter punch. Yan flicks a high kick upstairs, then comes in behind it for a takedown. Yan is in O’Malley’s guard at the base of the fence with 45 seconds left in the round. Yan postures up and lands a couple of punches. The round expires.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Yan
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Round 3
Yan shoots for a takedown right away, but O’Malley defends well and stands him back up. O’Malley flicks out a couple of jabs. Yan lands a low kick. Yan swarms forward with hooks, then shoves O’Malley to the cage. O’Malley pushes him back off, and lands an intercepting knee that cuts Yan badly. Yan is bleeding right away. Yan comes up short with a pair of punches, then lands a one-two. O’Malley throws a high kick that glances. Yan shoots a fast takedown from way outside, but drives O’Malley to the fence, and gets him to the ground. Yan takes O’Malley’s back as they stand. O’Malley escapes and they separate. There’s 90 seconds left as they reset in the middle. O’Malley lands a pair of jabs to Yan’s bloodied right eye. Yan drags O’Malley to the ground late in the round, and is landing punches from guard at the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Yan (30-27 Yan)
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Yan (30-27 Yan)
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley (29-28 Yan)
The Official Result
Sean O’Malley def. Petr Yan via Split Decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
Angelo picks Petr Yan confidently, calling him a phenomenal striker with fantastic takedown defense and surprising takedown offense. He notes Yan's power, accuracy, and grappling, and believes O'Malley will have trouble finding a rhythm. He acknowledges Yan's tendency to take the first round off but still expects a one-sided fight.
Big Brady picks Yan to win by TKO in the second round. He notes Yan's power (nearly 10 knockdowns in the UFC) and ability to mix in takedowns. O'Malley has faced mostly strikers and hasn't been tested on the ground; Yan can pressure him and potentially finish on top. He believes Yan's experience against elite strikers like Aldo and Sandhagen gives him a clear edge.
Cody is confident in Yan, noting that Yan is an underrated wrestler who can take O'Malley down and control him. He points out O'Malley's weaknesses against pressure and wrestlers, referencing the Marlon Vera fight. Cody believes Yan's experience and ability to figure out opponents as the fight goes on will be key. He thinks Yan can win by decision or inside the distance, and that O'Malley's popularity is inflating his odds.
Connor is confident Yan will win, arguing that Yan's layered striking and ability to adapt will overwhelm O'Malley. He notes that O'Malley's offense is based on feints and theoretical threats, while Yan has multiple modes of attack and will take easy targets like leg kicks. He also points out that Yan can pressure O'Malley to the fence and take him down, as he did against Sandhagen.
Daniel Levi picks Petr Yan to win, citing Yan's proven chin and ability to both give and take damage. He questions O'Malley's durability, noting that while O'Malley can strike well, it's unknown how he handles getting hit by a powerful puncher like Yan. Levi thinks Yan will pressure O'Malley and make him fight, and that Yan's experience against tough opponents gives him the edge. He also mentions that Yan may start slow but will win rounds as the fight progresses. Levi does not bet this fight but is confident in Yan.
Yan has a slow-starting style but excels in championship rounds. He has wrestling upside that could exploit O'Malley's weakness on the ground. O'Malley may be competitive early with kicks, but Yan's takedowns and top control should secure rounds. Yan by decision at -110 is the pick, and if the line drops to -250, the moneyline becomes attractive.
Paul is confident in Yan, citing that Yan is the better fighter and that O'Malley's action is due to his brand. He worries about Yan giving up round one but thinks Yan will figure out O'Malley and win. Paul notes Yan's wrestling and takedowns as a path to victory, and mentions he took a small bet on Yan by submission at long odds. He believes Yan's experience and skill gap will show.
The MMA Guru picks Petr Yan over Sean O'Malley by third-round TKO. He believes Yan's pressure, combinations, and ability to crowd O'Malley will be too much. He notes O'Malley's struggles against volume strikers and his tendency to spin, which Yan can exploit. He predicts O'Malley wins the first round but gets hurt in the second and finished in the third.
Zane picks Yan, emphasizing that Yan's pressure and ability to take easy targets will expose O'Malley's defensive flaws. He compares O'Malley to Darren Till, noting that both rely on a coiled-spring style that elite fighters eventually figure out. He believes Yan will force O'Malley into uncomfortable positions and break him down over time.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 26 of 41 | 63% | 26 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 25 of 47 | 53% | 25 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 19 of 25 | 76% | 19 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 15 of 26 | 57% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Munhoz | 26 of 41 | 63% | 0 of 9 | 0 of 2 | 26 of 30 | 26 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean O'Malley | 25 of 47 | 53% | 14 of 30 | 8 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 25 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pedro Munhoz | 19 of 25 | 76% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 22 | 19 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean O'Malley | 15 of 26 | 57% | 7 of 13 | 5 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Pedro Munhoz | 7 of 16 | 43% | 0 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 8 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean O'Malley | 10 of 21 | 47% | 7 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: O’Malley (-300), Munhoz (+250)
Round 1
Kicking off the main card is another fight that could have served as the main event of a Fight Night offering recently, as established veteran Munhoz (19-7, 1 NC; 9-7, 1 NC UFC) looks to shut down the “Sugar Show” of O’Malley (15-1, 7-1 UFC) at bantamweight. Feet and fists are sure to fly fervently, but not before referee Jason Herzog checks them in. The gloves are expectedly not touched given O’Malley’s chatter ahead of the fight, and they land leg kicks at the same time to start things off. O’Malley keeps a wide berth from afar, with a distance where even he cannot land with his significant reach advantage. They are cautious to engage, and O’Malley tosses out a few front kicks while Munhoz goes to the calf repeatedly. O’Malley loads up on an overhand right, and he checks a calf kick that zooms at him. Munhoz checks one in response, and he sweeps low with his rear leg. O’Malley pierces the guard with a jab, and Munhoz circles away and lands a solid leg kick as O’Malley switches stances. The American pokes out a few jabs but little else, and he leaps back as the low kick comes towards him. “Sugar Sean” spins with a back kick, and Munhoz is out of harm’s way in time. Munhoz hammers the leg multiples times, and O’Malley steps forward with a front kick and a straight right hand down the pipe. O’Malley slaps a front kick out, and it bangs into the cup. Herzog spots it immediately, and the crowd boos him despite that the foul lands cleanly. Munhoz takes less than a minute to get back to action, and O’Malley comes out throwing hands. Munhoz answers him with a barrage of leg kicks from both legs, and he appears fired up and walking O’Malley down. They continue to pepper the lead legs of one another with kicks, and Munhoz fires off a high kick that gets blocked in time. Munhoz bears down on him with a chopping kick, and they add up as O’Malley tries to push him back with jabs. The pink-haired fighter spin with a back kick to the midsection, and Munhoz answers him as he plants down with a thudding kick. Munhoz whiffs on a spin kick, and O’Malley mocks him with a pirouette as the crowd guffaws. The tentative round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley
Round 2
The second frame opens as Munhoz comes out running forward, and he switches stances every single time O’Malley does to mirror his stance and allow him to have effective leg kicks come out. Munhoz misses on a head kick, and a front kick as well as he pulls his leg back and lands awkwardly. O’Malley pokes out a few jabs to little effect, and Munhoz retreats and gets popped with a one-two. O’Malley spins with a wheel kick that just brushes past Munhoz’ hair, and one inch to the right could have spelled problems for the Brazilian. Munhoz kicks the midsection on his way in, and he swipes low with a kick. O’Malley absorbs a kick with an audible thud, and he loads up with a right hand that collides with the guard. O’Malley dings Munhoz with a straight right, and the Brazilian loads up on a low kick in response. Practically all of the strikes landed by “The Young Punisher” are leg kicks, and they are rarely more than single strikes. They continue to connect, and O’Malley, irritated from them, pops out a jab. Munhoz lands a punch, and O’Malley reaches out with his fingers outstretched to jab Munhoz in the eye. Munhoz turns away and tries to clear his vision. Herzog allows him to recover and calls in a doctor to give him more time, Munhoz seems to tell the doctor he cannot see out of his right eye. The doctor helps him wipe his eye, and Munhoz claims that all he sees is black from one eye. With that answer, Herzog and the physician properly call the fight off, as Munhoz cannot continue. This poke ruled an unintentional foul, it will go down as a no contest. This is an unfortunate ending to a competitive and intriguing bout, and hopefully the promotion can run it back in the near future.
The Official Result
Sean O’Malley vs. Pedro Munhoz is ruled a No Contest (Accidental Eye Poke) R2 3:09
Angelo picks Sean O'Malley, citing his accuracy and athletic striking. He believes Munhoz's volume and forward pressure will work against him as O'Malley sticks and moves. He expresses frustration with the matchup, feeling Munhoz is being fed to a rising star, but still sees O'Malley winning a decision.
Big Brady is confident in Sean O'Malley, citing his size, speed, and striking advantage. He notes Munhoz is hittable and absorbs many strikes, but worries about O'Malley's leg kicks and durability. He predicts O'Malley wins by decision, as Munhoz has never been knocked out.
Cody acknowledges Munhoz's path to victory via leg kicks and pressure, but notes Munhoz has declined and lacks wrestling. He thinks O'Malley's reach and speed will be decisive, and that Munhoz hasn't landed a takedown since 2018. He picks O'Malley as the rightful favorite.
Daniel Levi is confident in Sean O'Malley, having bet 5 units to win 2 at -250. He believes O'Malley's height, reach, volume, and stance switching will be too much for Munhoz, who is there to be hit and may be on the decline. Levi dismisses the leg kick narrative, noting that O'Malley can mitigate it by fighting southpaw. He respects Munhoz's guillotine and calf kicks but thinks O'Malley's evolution and youth give him the edge.
O'Malley is faster and more technical, but Munhoz has never been knocked out and has good leg kicks. O'Malley should win by decision, staying on the outside and avoiding leg kicks. The host is not confident in a finish and prefers the decision prop.
Paul agrees with Cody that O'Malley's reach advantage and volume will be key. He notes Munhoz's lack of wrestling makes it hard to back him at +275. He picks O'Malley to win.
The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley, citing his elusiveness, range advantage (7-inch reach), and ability to slow down pressure fighters. He believes Pedro Munhoz has declined and that O'Malley's front kicks and leg kicks will be key. He predicts O'Malley will pick Munhoz apart and win a decision, noting Munhoz's lack of offensive wrestling.
Raulian Paiva - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergey Morozov | 0 | 63 of 142 | 44% | 63 of 142 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 68 of 127 | 53% | 82 of 143 | 2 of 13 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 4:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergey Morozov | 0 | 39 of 76 | 51% | 39 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 32 of 58 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 2 | Sergey Morozov | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 17 of 26 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 3:51 | |
| 3 | Sergey Morozov | 0 | 16 of 50 | 32% | 16 of 50 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 30 of 56 | 53% | 33 of 59 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergey Morozov | 63 of 142 | 44% | 51 of 120 | 10 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 62 of 140 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Raulian Paiva | 68 of 127 | 53% | 56 of 113 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 66 of 122 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergey Morozov | 39 of 76 | 51% | 31 of 63 | 6 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 39 of 76 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raulian Paiva | 31 of 57 | 54% | 26 of 52 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sergey Morozov | 8 of 16 | 50% | 7 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Raulian Paiva | 7 of 14 | 50% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Sergey Morozov | 16 of 50 | 32% | 13 of 43 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raulian Paiva | 30 of 56 | 53% | 25 of 50 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 30 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Sergey Morozov to win an ugly, fun fight. He highlights Morozov's counter-striking and grappling, noting that Paiva tends to run forward looking for a brawl, which plays into Morozov's counter-striking. He compares Morozov's potential success to Sean O'Malley's, who lit Paiva up with counters. He expects Morozov's grappling to also be a factor.
Big Brady picks Sergey Morozov to win by decision, but with low confidence. He likes Morozov's path to victory via takedowns and control, noting Paiva's poor takedown defense (taken down by multiple opponents). However, he questions Morozov's chin (dropped three times in last fight, KO losses outside UFC) and submission defense. He thinks the fight could get sketchy and says he is staying away from betting it. He expects Morozov to grind out a decision.
Cody likes Morozov's power and boxing, and thinks Paiva's poor head movement and durability issues will lead to a knockout. He also mentions Morozov by KO as a prop.
Paul agrees, noting Paiva's weight cut issues and the damage he's taken. He thinks Morozov will get back on track.
The host picks Sergey Morozov, calling it the toughest fight to predict. He notes Morozov's grappling advantage and believes he will use takedowns to control the fight. He expects a finish in the second round, citing Morozov's experience against good opponents like Umar Nurmagomedov. He is not confident in Paiva's improvements.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 11 of 47 | 23% | 11 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raulian Paiva | 1 | 39 of 62 | 62% | 40 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 11 of 47 | 23% | 11 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raulian Paiva | 1 | 39 of 62 | 62% | 40 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean O'Malley | 11 of 47 | 23% | 2 of 32 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 9 | 11 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raulian Paiva | 39 of 62 | 62% | 28 of 50 | 8 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 37 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean O'Malley | 11 of 47 | 23% | 2 of 32 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 9 | 11 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raulian Paiva | 39 of 62 | 62% | 28 of 50 | 8 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 37 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Kicking off the main card of UFC 269 is an unranked bantamweight pairing between ex-flyweight Paiva (21-3, 3-2 UFC) and the fluorescently haired O’Malley (14-1, 6-1 UFC). The Octagon ranger for this one is referee Jason Herzog, and there is no interest in a glove touch as they would rather introduce themselves to one another with their fists. O’Malley comes out switching his stances back and forth, and Paiva swings and misses at his elusive foe. Paiva kicks low, and he catches a front kick to the body so he can close in and get his hands on the American. O’Malley darts out of the way, and he fakes with a jab only to have his leg kicked. O’Malley stomp-kicks his foe’s knee, and he sticks out a single jab that split the guard. The ball of O’Malley’s foot clatters square into Paiva’s groin, and we draw a pause for a few seconds. Paiva is set to resume before long, and O’Malley backs away and starts lining jabs up. Paiva scores a quick calf kick that makes O’Malley changes stances, and he completes a short combination with an overhand right. O’Malley gathers himself and flicks his jabs out a few more times, keeping his range from a safe distance while Paiva gives chase. A sniper shot of a left hand snaps Paiva’s head back, but it is one-and-done as Paiva keeps walking him down. The Brazilian swipes out with a left hand, and as chants rain down for O’Malley, Paiva chips at his calf. O’Malley gets off a push kick to the midsection, only for Paiva to hack at his lead leg a few more times. “Sugar” strings together a clean combination that surprises Paiva and may have marked his nose up. Paiva recommits to the low calf kick, and he reaches out with the end of a right hook to glance off O’Malley’s jaw. They land strikes at the same time and appear no worse for wear, and O’Malley follows it up with a blistering right hand. Paiva leans back into the wall, and O’Malley tees off on him against the wire as Paiva is barely able to stay on his feet. Paiva never gets a chance to recover, as O’Malley rips the body and then smashes Paiva in the face with sharp, accurate strikes until Paiva falls over. The Brazilian springs back up, but he is still on rubber legs, and O’Malley continues to work him over. A left to the body and a right to the head spell the beginning of the end for Paiva, as O’Malley swarms him with a vigorous crescendo of punches until Paiva's knees give out and Herzog steps in. This is an impressive performance for a kid who has star power for days. In his post-fight interview, O'Malley admits that he was very close to withdrawing from the fight due to a serious rib injury, but he made it to fight night and put on a show.
The Official Result
Sean O’Malley def. Raulian Paiva R1 4:42 via TKO (Punches)
Big Brady is confident in Sean O'Malley winning by knockout. He highlights O'Malley's massive striking advantage, with high volume and accuracy, while Paiva has poor striking defense and gets hit more than he lands. Paiva rarely shoots takedowns and has low takedown accuracy, so O'Malley should be able to keep the fight standing. Brady is unimpressed with Paiva's competition and believes O'Malley will finish him.
Daniel Levi picks Sean O'Malley to win but calls it a 'dog or pass' situation. He praises O'Malley's striking diversity and volume but questions his defensive and mental toughness when facing adversity. Levi notes Paiva's heart and durability, referencing his comeback win over Kyler Phillips. He worries about O'Malley's compromised leg (from the Chito fight) and Paiva's ability to capitalize if O'Malley gets hurt. Levi says he might take a half-unit shot on Paiva but ultimately picks O'Malley.
O'Malley has the striking advantage and power to finish, but Paiva is durable and has a path via takedowns. However, Paiva's striking defense is suspect, and O'Malley will counter effectively. The under 2.5 rounds is a good bet, as O'Malley likely gets a first-round KO.
The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley to win by second-round TKO via a spinning back kick to the body. He believes O'Malley's reach, height, and striking advantage will be too much for Paiva. He notes O'Malley's underrated ground game and training with Kyla Phillips, who recently fought Paiva. He predicts O'Malley will hurt Paiva early and finish him with body shots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raulian Paiva | 1 | 74 of 132 | 56% | 95 of 155 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 0 | 1 | 3:02 |
| Kyler Phillips | 0 | 51 of 117 | 43% | 72 of 147 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raulian Paiva | 1 | 45 of 70 | 64% | 61 of 86 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 1:01 |
| Kyler Phillips | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 19 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 | |
| 2 | Raulian Paiva | 0 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 15 of 32 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Kyler Phillips | 0 | 23 of 47 | 48% | 23 of 47 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 3 | Raulian Paiva | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 19 of 37 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Kyler Phillips | 0 | 15 of 38 | 39% | 30 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raulian Paiva | 74 of 132 | 56% | 62 of 115 | 7 of 11 | 5 of 6 | 43 of 95 | 8 of 9 | 23 of 28 |
| Kyler Phillips | 51 of 117 | 43% | 37 of 96 | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 41 of 102 | 7 of 10 | 3 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raulian Paiva | 45 of 70 | 64% | 41 of 64 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 39 | 3 of 3 | 23 of 28 |
| Kyler Phillips | 13 of 32 | 40% | 9 of 28 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | |
| 2 | Raulian Paiva | 13 of 28 | 46% | 9 of 23 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Kyler Phillips | 23 of 47 | 48% | 17 of 38 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 38 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Raulian Paiva | 16 of 34 | 47% | 12 of 28 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Kyler Phillips | 15 of 38 | 39% | 11 of 30 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Two top-flight teams will wage a proxy battle as the MMA Lab’s Phillips (9-1, 3-0 UFC) faces ex-flyweight and Team Alpha Male rep Paiva (20-3, 2-2 UFC) at bantamweight. The co-main event will tolerate zero nonsense as it draws oversight from referee Keith Peterson, and the gloves are touched to clock in this fight. Paiva is quick on the draw, with a few crisp punches when Phillips tries to close the distance. Phillips opens up with kicks, and he cracks the Brazilian with a right hand. Phillips opens up with a flying knee, and when he lands, he spins with a back fist that glances off the target. Paiva appears to have recovered from the big blow and partial knockdown to throw at Phillips, but “The Matrix” enters the matrix as he dodges several strikes and ducks down to clash heads with his advancing opponent. Phillips kicks the body, and his leg is caught and he takes two right hands and succumbs to a takedown from the position. When Phillips walks up the fence, he is able to spin around and spin Paiva around with a kimura. Phillips lifts his foe up in the air and slams him down like he was carrying groceries, and he lets Paiva up so that he can land a flashy kick to the body. Paiva appears unflustered and he walks Phillips down, but he eats a fierce right hand that hurts him. Another wobbles Paiva, who shoots in for a single and is stuffed. Phillips makes him pay with several punches, until the Brazilian bails on it and stands up. Phillips kicks him in the head, and spins around with a heel kick that clacks on the side of Paiva’s head. Paiva allows him to land the strike so that Phillips falls to the ground without any balance, and he climbs into Phillips’ guard to slow things down. Paiva postures up and lands a few long punches, but Phillips is quick to reverse him and put Paiva on his back. Phillips takes side control, and slices over to mount but is pulled back to half guard in an exchange. Paiva eats an elbow, scrambles back to his knees, takes another elbow, and stands back up. When Paiva stands back up, Phillips rocks him with another brutal right hand, and the Brazilian pushes for a desperation takedown. Paiva can barely stand, and Phillips cracks him with another right hand. A nasty elbow cracks the Brazilian on the jaw, and he collapses in a heap. The fight not quite over, Phillips dives in to finish the job. He continues to club Paiva with everything he has, and Paiva miraculously survives to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Phillips
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-8 Phillips
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Phillips
Round 2
The gloves are touched to begin the round, and Paiva comes out of his corner swinging for the bleachers. Phillips spins with a wheel kick to try to throw things off, and Paiva drops down to pursue a takedown. As soon as Phillips drops to a knee, he rolls for a leglock, and Paiva abandons the position before anything gets set up. Both men get back to their feet, and Phillips is ready with pep in his step and a blistering elbow square on the chin. Paiva takes it flush and fires back with a straight right hand, knocking Phillips off of his feet. Paiva sees that Phillips may be hurt and a little gassed, and he chases Phillips around the cage and unloads a fury at him. Paiva scores a clean uppercut that stings Phillips badly, and even though he may be bloodied and has taken some damage, he appears the fresher man and ignores a flying knee when Phillips tries to recover. Paiva pursues a takedown, and when Phillips fights it off, the latter takes a very deep breath before the midpoint of the round. Phillips dives forward for a tackle takedown, landing it and putting the Brazilian on his back. Paiva scoots his way to the fence, and he calmly stands back up while Phillips tries to keep him down. Paiva is able to break free, and he lands a one-two as Phillips is tiring fast. Paiva ducks a punch and grabs a body lock to try to plant “The Matrix” on the ground, but Phillips stops it and lands a spinning back elbow. When Paiva looks to do some damage with a right hand, Phillips evades it, grabs the back and drags Paiva down to the ground. Phillips takes back control and fishes for a choke, but Paiva rolls through to his knees. Phillips flattens Paiva out to set up a choke, and Paiva turns and nearly gives up mount. Phillips turns to try to get a better position, and he is forced to stand up. Phillips smashes Paiva in the face with a huge right hand, and Paiva eats it like an acai bowl and blasts Phillips back with one of his own. The spent fighters end the round pressed against the wall.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Paiva
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Paiva
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Paiva
Round 3
The bantamweight battle well worth the price of admission, both men touch gloves to begin the last round. Whose cardio is better is anyone’s guess. Paiva starts the dance with a few jabs, and Phillips comes back at him with a long right hand and a possible takedown entry. Paiva stuffs it without much effort and connects with a right hand that wobbles Phillips. Paiva opens up with a right and a left as Phillips bears down on him to take him down, stopping the attempt before it gets too far. Phillips shrugs off a right hand on the jaw to duck down low for a single, and both men fall to the ground with neither in an advantageous position. Phillips ducks face-first into an uppercut, and Paiva lays into him with a few punches but cannot hurt him. Phillips sells out with a huge right hand, and the two fighters are so wiped out, they are slipping all over the cage and wobbling after every punch. Phillips escapes a few strikes but takes some more when Paiva gives chase, and Phillips attacks with a spinning kick that is well short of the mark. Phillips goes all-in for a double leg takedown, scooping the Brazilian’s legs out beneath him bot not able to ground him for long. Paiva scores a right hand only to get pursued with another takedown, and Paiva grits it out and turns him around to take him down. Phillips defends with his legs to set up a reversal, but he does not have the energy to land it and instead is stuck on his back while Paiva is on top of him. The Brazilian holds on tight, not wanting “The Matrix” to get off any more wild strikes on his feet, and he gets off some ground-and-pound to stay busy. Paiva in half guard continues to control his opponent and land effective if not damaging punches. At the 10-second clapper, Phillips explodes to his feet and is ready to brawl. Phillips smashes his fist into the granite chin of Paiva, and Paiva throws everything he has back at his foe. One final flurry ends the fight, and this one could be close – close enough to be dead even, depending on how the judges see the rounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Paiva (28-28)
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Paiva (28-28)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Paiva (28-28)
The Official Result
Raulian Paiva def. Kyler Phillips via Majority Decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-28)
Angelo picks Raulian Paiva because he thinks Paiva is a real threat on the ground with jiu-jitsu and is a good striker. He notes that Kyler Phillips has wrestling and fight IQ, but Paiva could cause problems. He is not confident and is not betting on this fight. He likes the more/more on monkey knife fight, expecting a decision.
Big Brady is very high on Kyler Phillips, especially after his impressive win over Song Yadong. He notes Paiva is moving up from 125 lbs and has poor striking defense (51%) and a negative striking differential. He expects Phillips to mix in takedowns (3 per 15 min, 63% accuracy) and win a convincing decision, as Paiva has been taken down in every UFC fight except one. He considers this a step down in competition for Phillips.
Cody picks Phillips, calling him a legitimate top ten guy. He praises Phillips' fight IQ, striking, and wrestling, noting his performance against Song Yadong. He thinks Paiva's move up to 135 removes his size advantage and that Phillips is on a different level. He considers Phillips a safe parlay piece.
Daniel Levi picks Kyler Phillips to win, acknowledging Paiva's toughness but believing Phillips is too clean and will edge a decision. He notes that Paiva is dangerous with nothing to lose, but Phillips' footwork and technique are superior. Levi expects a close fight but sees Phillips' skill set prevailing, though he wouldn't play the -300 line against Paiva.
Jacob picks Kyler Phillips as his lock of the week, calling him the 'king of lock of the weeks.' He praises Phillips' fight IQ and wrestling, noting that he gets takedowns when needed. He believes Phillips will dominate with wrestling and timely takedowns. He is very confident despite the short-notice opponent moving up in weight.
The host leans toward Raulian Paiva as a dog, noting his striking and Muay Thai. He believes Paiva's move to 135 pounds will benefit his cardio and durability. He thinks the line is too wide and Paiva can make it a close fight. He likes Paiva by decision at +455 and the moneyline at +240.
Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing that Paiva's biggest advantage was his size at 125, which is gone at 135. He notes Paiva hasn't looked ultra impressive and arguably lost to Zalgus. He sees Phillips as a surgeon and expects him to win on the feet or ground.
The Guru confidently picks Phillips, citing his size advantage at bantamweight, chain takedown ability, and mixing strikes with takedowns. He notes Paiva is a short-notice replacement and likely views this as a free payday. He predicts a first-round rear-naked choke submission, as Paiva has been outgrappled before.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 52 of 121 | 42% | 56 of 125 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 66 of 119 | 55% | 73 of 126 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raulian Paiva | 0 | 21 of 47 | 44% | 21 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 19 of 41 | 46% | 19 of 41 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 2 | Raulian Paiva | 0 | 16 of 40 | 40% | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 27 of 44 | 61% | 32 of 49 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 3 | Raulian Paiva | 0 | 15 of 34 | 44% | 16 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 20 of 34 | 58% | 22 of 36 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raulian Paiva | 52 of 121 | 42% | 14 of 71 | 22 of 31 | 16 of 19 | 51 of 119 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 66 of 119 | 55% | 19 of 61 | 17 of 25 | 30 of 33 | 64 of 115 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raulian Paiva | 21 of 47 | 44% | 6 of 30 | 8 of 9 | 7 of 8 | 21 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 19 of 41 | 46% | 5 of 25 | 6 of 6 | 8 of 10 | 19 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Raulian Paiva | 16 of 40 | 40% | 5 of 23 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 27 of 44 | 61% | 7 of 20 | 9 of 13 | 11 of 11 | 25 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Raulian Paiva | 15 of 34 | 44% | 3 of 18 | 7 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 14 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 20 of 34 | 58% | 7 of 16 | 2 of 6 | 11 of 12 | 20 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Raulian Paiva by decision, noting he was not impressed with Zhumagulov's tape against lower competition. He believes Paiva is the better overall striker and will outpoint him, though he may not bet at -185.
Daniel Levi is very high on Raulian Paiva, calling him one of his favorite flyweight prospects. He praises Paiva's length, forward pressure, volume, and durability, noting he can take shots and has a good chin. He criticizes Zhumagulov as small for 125, easily bullied, and having a watered-down Russian style. Levi believes Paiva will push him back and dominate, possibly finishing him.
Paiva has impressive length and striking, especially his kicking, which should give Zhumagulov issues closing the distance. Paiva is slowly coming into his own and has a win over a high-level fighter in earlier Santos. Expects Paiva to pick him apart on the feet and win by decision.
The Guru does not discuss this fight in the transcript. No pick is made.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 45 of 124 | 36% | 45 of 124 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mark De La Rosa | 1 | 54 of 126 | 42% | 67 of 139 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raulian Paiva | 0 | 22 of 57 | 38% | 22 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mark De La Rosa | 0 | 19 of 62 | 30% | 31 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:06 | |
| 2 | Raulian Paiva | 0 | 23 of 67 | 34% | 23 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mark De La Rosa | 1 | 35 of 64 | 54% | 36 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raulian Paiva | 45 of 124 | 36% | 21 of 91 | 15 of 24 | 9 of 9 | 44 of 122 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Mark De La Rosa | 54 of 126 | 42% | 33 of 98 | 10 of 13 | 11 of 15 | 45 of 116 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raulian Paiva | 22 of 57 | 38% | 12 of 42 | 8 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mark De La Rosa | 19 of 62 | 30% | 14 of 52 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 17 of 59 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Raulian Paiva | 23 of 67 | 34% | 9 of 49 | 7 of 11 | 7 of 7 | 22 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mark De La Rosa | 35 of 64 | 54% | 19 of 46 | 8 of 8 | 8 of 10 | 28 of 57 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Daniel Levi picks Raulian Paiva to win, likely by finish. He notes Paiva's height, reach, durability, and scrambling ability, while De La Rosa is smaller and makes mistakes in boxing. He believes Paiva is more ferocious and will overwhelm De La Rosa with left hooks and knees.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 8 of 16 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 3 of 15 | 20% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 8 of 16 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 3 of 15 | 20% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogério Bontorin | 8 of 15 | 53% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Raulian Paiva | 3 of 15 | 20% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rogério Bontorin | 8 of 15 | 53% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Raulian Paiva | 3 of 15 | 20% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kara-France | 0 | 58 of 168 | 34% | 60 of 170 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 67 of 184 | 36% | 71 of 188 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kara-France | 0 | 12 of 39 | 30% | 12 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 16 of 39 | 41% | 16 of 39 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 2 | Kai Kara-France | 0 | 21 of 58 | 36% | 23 of 60 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 25 of 68 | 36% | 29 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:23 | |
| 3 | Kai Kara-France | 0 | 25 of 71 | 35% | 25 of 71 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 26 of 77 | 33% | 26 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kara-France | 58 of 168 | 34% | 33 of 134 | 17 of 24 | 8 of 10 | 55 of 164 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Raulian Paiva | 67 of 184 | 36% | 36 of 140 | 21 of 33 | 10 of 11 | 61 of 170 | 1 of 4 | 5 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kara-France | 12 of 39 | 30% | 6 of 30 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raulian Paiva | 16 of 39 | 41% | 8 of 29 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kai Kara-France | 21 of 58 | 36% | 14 of 51 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Raulian Paiva | 25 of 68 | 36% | 13 of 49 | 6 of 13 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 55 | 0 of 3 | 5 of 10 | |
| 3 | Kai Kara-France | 25 of 71 | 35% | 13 of 53 | 9 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 25 of 70 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Raulian Paiva | 26 of 77 | 33% | 15 of 62 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 76 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Expert Picks (4)
Big Brady is confident in Sean O'Malley winning by knockout. He highlights O'Malley's massive striking advantage, with high volume and accuracy, while Paiva has poor striking defense and gets hit more than he lands. Paiva rarely shoots takedowns and has low takedown accuracy, so O'Malley should be able to keep the fight standing. Brady is unimpressed with Paiva's competition and believes O'Malley will finish him.
Daniel Levi picks Sean O'Malley to win but calls it a 'dog or pass' situation. He praises O'Malley's striking diversity and volume but questions his defensive and mental toughness when facing adversity. Levi notes Paiva's heart and durability, referencing his comeback win over Kyler Phillips. He worries about O'Malley's compromised leg (from the Chito fight) and Paiva's ability to capitalize if O'Malley gets hurt. Levi says he might take a half-unit shot on Paiva but ultimately picks O'Malley.
O'Malley has the striking advantage and power to finish, but Paiva is durable and has a path via takedowns. However, Paiva's striking defense is suspect, and O'Malley will counter effectively. The under 2.5 rounds is a good bet, as O'Malley likely gets a first-round KO.
The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley to win by second-round TKO via a spinning back kick to the body. He believes O'Malley's reach, height, and striking advantage will be too much for Paiva. He notes O'Malley's underrated ground game and training with Kyla Phillips, who recently fought Paiva. He predicts O'Malley will hurt Paiva early and finish him with body shots.
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