vs
+175 -188
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021 · Bantamweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier Next Fight
Age 39
Height 5' 9"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 32
Height 5' 9"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Tony Kelley
5.55 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
4.85 SApM
45.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
52.0% TD Def.
1.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Randy Costa
6.53 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
7.58 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Tony Kelley
Moneyline
Caesars +175
KO/TKO
DraftKings +900
Submission
BetRivers +650
Decision
BetWay +400
Randy Costa
Moneyline
BetWay -188
KO/TKO
FanDuel -110
Submission
BetWay +2000
Decision
DraftKings +550
Tony Kelley - Fight History
LOSS vs Adrian Yañez
TKO (punches) R1 3:49 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Emmett · Jun 18, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Adrian Yañez 1 35 of 67 52% 36 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Tony Kelley 0 20 of 49 40% 21 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Adrian Yañez 1 35 of 67 52% 36 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Tony Kelley 0 20 of 49 40% 21 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Adrian Yañez 35 of 67 52% 29 of 60 6 of 7 0 of 0 29 of 60 1 of 2 5 of 5
Tony Kelley 20 of 49 40% 12 of 29 6 of 16 2 of 4 20 of 48 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Adrian Yañez 35 of 67 52% 29 of 60 6 of 7 0 of 0 29 of 60 1 of 2 5 of 5
Tony Kelley 20 of 49 40% 12 of 29 6 of 16 2 of 4 20 of 48 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tony Kelley (137.5: Missed Weight) vs. Adrian Yanez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Yanez (-320), Kelley (+250)

Round 1
A rivalry as old as time immemorial will kick off the main card, when proud Texan Yanez (15-3, 4-0 UFC) throws down with Louisiana’s own Kelley (8-2, 2-1 UFC) – and the latter has been in the headlines again not for his fight but for his words as of late. Yanez will hope to punch him in it repeatedly, and look to add another knockout to his already eight-fight win streak with six stoppages due to strikes along he way. Kelley, however, has never been finishes, so something’s gotta give here in this catchweight contest – a contest now taking place at 138 pounds due to Kelley missing weight. There is ample bad blood ahead of this one, and there is no interest at all in a glove touch. Referee Kerry Hatley will have to be on his A game here. Kelley strikes first with a kick to the body, and he goes high with one to the head. Both are blocked, so Kelley leaps in the air with a flying knee. Yanez nearly intercepts him like Fedor Emelianenko against Andrei Arlovski, and Kelley falls to the ground. Kelley scrambles back up, unhurt from the strike, and he finds himself moving back when Yanez comes towards him calmly. Yanez times a body kick when Kelley throws a punch, with the kick reaching while the punch comes up short. The Texan swats away a low kick and a punch or two, and he comes out swinging with an overhand right. Kelley has a body kick left out too long, allowing Yanez to come over the top with a pair of hooks. Kelley stabs his toes in the midsection with a kick, and Yanez is there to target the body with a stiff punch. Yanez freezes Kelley with one punch, and Kelley gathers himself and starts working the body with kicks from both legs and a step-in elbow. Kelley stays busy with front kicks down the middle, and Yanez pushes through one to score three punches. Yanez times a front kick so that he can smash Kelley with a left hook, and Kelley is stunned. Yanez unleashes a quick flurry of punches to knock Kelley back to the fence, and Kelley takes them well but still absorbs several of them flush. Yanez gets rocked with a counter elbow, cutting open a spot near his nose. Yanez gathers himself and throws back to counter a kick, and Kelley is stung again.
The Texan releases a lengthy barrage of punches that knock Kelley around, and he clubs Kelley behind the guard and sends the Louisiana native down to the mat on his knees. Kelley, barely conscious, tries to sit up, but his hands are down. This allows Yanez to unload bombs on an unguarded head, and a few more put Kelley out.
Hatley steps in mid-combination, and Yanez still manages to connect with one more blow that puts Kelley on his back, down for good. Kelley tries to get up, and he trips Hatley up. Hatley is able to catch himself, and he turns himself around to then catch Kelley, who is about to fall towards his stool, clearly still hurt badly. Yanez wants to keep going, clearly incensed by Kelley’s behavior, and Hatley has to back him off several times. Yanez, who is now on a five-fight UFC win streak, cools down and takes a bow in front of the crowd, which showers him in the loudest cheers in the building thus far tonight.

The Official Result
Adrian Yanez def. Tony Kelley R1 3:49 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Tony Kelley

Angelo picks Tony Kelley in an upset, citing his forward pressure, volume, and ability to disrupt Adrian Yañez's rhythm. He notes Yañez's slow starts and willingness to brawl, which plays into Kelley's hands. He mentions Kelley's impressive win over Randy Costa (129 strikes to 32) and believes Kelley can maintain pace.

"i think i'm going tony kelly here because even though yanez is the more technical striker his slow start and willingness to engage in a brawl can lead him down the wrong path"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Big Brady picks Adrian Yañez to win by third-round knockout. He notes Yañez is a slow starter but has clear power advantage and good combinations, while Kelley is very hittable with 45% striking defense. He expects Kelley to win the first round but Yañez's damage to accumulate and lead to a late knockout.

third round knockout
"I like giannis here i like him by second or third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Cody picks Yañez but emphasizes the over 2.5 rounds as the best bet on the card. He notes neither fighter has been finished and Yañez tends to have close fights. He thinks Yañez's technical striking will win but the fight goes to decision. He calls the over 2.5 a 'face slapper' line.

Over 2.5 rounds (biggest investment of the week)
"over two and a half i think is the play of the card here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 16, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Daniel Levi leans Adrian Yañez, citing his cleaner hands and improved kicking game, plus the hometown advantage in Texas. However, he notes Yañez absorbs a lot of strikes (nearly six per minute) and Tony Kelley is a durable, high-output fighter who could make it competitive. Levi thinks it will be a close three-round fight and Yañez may get a decision, but the -280 price is too high for comfort. He acknowledges Kelley at +240 has value.

Yañez -280 is too high; Kelley +240 has value; close decision likely
"i lean yanez but i mean i don't fault y'all for taking that shot on tony kelly"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tony Kelley

Paul is considering a Tony Kelley play, noting Yañez's struggles against aggressive fighters and his close split decisions. He thinks Kelley's durability and improved training with Andrea Lee make him a live underdog. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds.

Over 2.5 rounds; Tony Kelley by decision +600
"i'm contemplating a tony kelly play truth be told"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

The MMA Guru picks Adrian Yañez, though he worries about his performance against Davey Grant. He believes Tony Kelley is tough but has been eking out close decisions. He expects Yañez to use better distance control and body shots, winning a decision (29-28 or 30-27) in a scrappy fight, with Kelley surviving but losing.

"i'm gonna be sliding with adrien yanez here... i think he'll invest in body shots he has got good take down defense"
WIN vs Randy Costa
TKO (elbows) R2 4:15 · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tony Kelley 0 31 of 65 47% 32 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:29
Randy Costa 0 82 of 169 48% 129 of 218 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tony Kelley 0 16 of 37 43% 17 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:28
Randy Costa 0 35 of 90 38% 50 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
2 Tony Kelley 0 15 of 28 53% 15 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:01
Randy Costa 0 47 of 79 59% 79 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tony Kelley 31 of 65 47% 20 of 54 11 of 11 0 of 0 19 of 53 12 of 12 0 of 0
Randy Costa 82 of 169 48% 26 of 93 43 of 62 13 of 14 27 of 93 32 of 42 23 of 34
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tony Kelley 16 of 37 43% 8 of 29 8 of 8 0 of 0 8 of 29 8 of 8 0 of 0
Randy Costa 35 of 90 38% 6 of 48 23 of 35 6 of 7 17 of 64 18 of 26 0 of 0
2 Tony Kelley 15 of 28 53% 12 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0 11 of 24 4 of 4 0 of 0
Randy Costa 47 of 79 59% 20 of 45 20 of 27 7 of 7 10 of 29 14 of 16 23 of 34
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Randy Costa

Big Brady picks Randy Costa but with low confidence due to Costa's questionable cardio. He notes that Costa is explosive and powerful in the first round but tends to fade if the fight goes past round one, as seen in previous fights. He believes Costa will likely finish Kelley early by knockout, but if Kelley survives the initial storm, Kelley's cardio advantage could lead to a win. Brady mentions he would not bet Costa on the moneyline but would consider a round 1 or inside the distance prop.

Randy Costa round 1 or inside the distance
"give me randy costa for the win i think he does knock out tony kelly in the first round but if he does not i think the fight gets very very interesting"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tony Kelley

Daniel Levi picks Tony Kelley to win by late stoppage or decision. He argues that Randy Costa is a first-round finisher but fades if he can't get the knockout, citing losses to Brandon Davis and Adrian Yanez. Levi emphasizes Kelley's durability, never being finished, and his experience going five rounds. He believes if Kelley survives the first seven minutes, Costa will fall apart mentally and physically. Levi notes Costa's questionable mentality, referencing an interview where Costa cried before an amateur fight.

"just stay alive for seven minutes tony and then you're a very live underdog to come out here and win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Randy Costa

Costa is the much better striker, quicker and more explosive, but his gas tank is a major concern. If he doesn't finish early, Kelley will take over in the later rounds. The fight likely ends inside the distance, either by Costa's early KO or Kelley's late submission. The play is 'fight doesn't go to decision' to cover both outcomes.

fight doesn't go to decision
"the play here is the fight doesn't go to decision i'm expecting kosovo to starch him in round one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Randy Costa

The MMA Guru confidently picks Randy Costa to win by head kick KO in the first round. He praises Costa's potential and striking, noting his impressive performance against Adrian Yanez. He criticizes Tony Kelley's one-dimensional style and lack of cardio, believing Costa's reach advantage and power will be decisive.

head kick KO in first round
"i think he's going to get a head kick ko in the first round that's what i'm going for don't mess with the zohan"
WIN vs Ali AlQaisi
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · Oct 11, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tony Kelley 0 29 of 67 43% 58 of 103 5 of 15 33% 1 0 6:00
Ali AlQaisi 0 23 of 62 37% 61 of 109 0 of 0 --- 4 0 1:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tony Kelley 0 0 of 3 0% 20 of 24 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:48
Ali AlQaisi 0 1 of 2 50% 13 of 16 0 of 0 --- 4 0 0:22
2 Tony Kelley 0 7 of 19 36% 16 of 32 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:50
Ali AlQaisi 0 7 of 19 36% 22 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
3 Tony Kelley 0 22 of 45 48% 22 of 47 2 of 9 22% 0 0 0:22
Ali AlQaisi 0 15 of 41 36% 26 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tony Kelley 29 of 67 43% 12 of 42 3 of 6 14 of 19 27 of 61 1 of 3 1 of 3
Ali AlQaisi 23 of 62 37% 11 of 43 5 of 9 7 of 10 21 of 58 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tony Kelley 0 of 3 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0
Ali AlQaisi 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tony Kelley 7 of 19 36% 3 of 12 1 of 4 3 of 3 6 of 16 0 of 1 1 of 2
Ali AlQaisi 7 of 19 36% 4 of 14 0 of 0 3 of 5 7 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Tony Kelley 22 of 45 48% 9 of 29 2 of 2 11 of 14 21 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 1
Ali AlQaisi 15 of 41 36% 7 of 28 5 of 9 3 of 4 13 of 37 2 of 4 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Ali AlQaisi

Big Brady picks the underdog AlQaisi, citing his takedown and submission game as a clear path to victory against Kelley's questionable takedown defense. He notes Kelley throws high volume but can be taken down easily. He expects AlQaisi to win a close decision if he sticks to takedowns and doesn't tire.

AlQaisi by decision
"i'm gonna go with the underdog here and i'm gonna go with al casey to get the win"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Tony Kelley

Daniel picks Tony Kelley to win, likely by finish. He notes that Kelley has a wider arsenal of strikes and better cardio, while AlQaisi is stiff and one-dimensional. He believes Kelley's volume and calf kicks will be too much, and that AlQaisi's top control is not good enough to keep Kelley down. Daniel also mentions that Kelley showed good cardio in his short-notice fight against Kamaka.

Daniel predicts a finish for Kelley, possibly by strikes. He also mentions that Kelley dropped to 135 for this fight.
"I feel like tony kelly this is his fight and i feel like he's actually going to finish alkazi somewhere along the way so i got a tony kelly"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Tony Kelley

Kelley has superior striking, footwork, and range, but this is his first fight at bantamweight and he took damage in his last fight. AlQaisi will likely try to grapple, but Kelley's takedown defense and offensive guard should keep him safe. Expect a decision win for Kelley.

"i do like kelly here there's a little bit of skepticism on my end"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Tony Kelley

The Guru picks Kelley, citing his size at bantamweight and past performances. He notes Kelley went to a split decision with Kevin Aguilar (who was on a tear) and looked good in a loss to Kai Kamaka. He believes Kelley will be too big and rangy, dominating on the feet and in grappling, and predicts a third-round finish.

third round finish
"i think he'll be ali elquisi and i'll say he'll win by a third round finish"
LOSS vs Kai Kamaka III
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · Aug 15, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kai Kamaka III 0 114 of 185 61% 138 of 216 5 of 5 100% 0 0 5:09
Tony Kelley 0 114 of 226 50% 185 of 298 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kai Kamaka III 0 43 of 72 59% 49 of 79 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:13
Tony Kelley 0 24 of 59 40% 37 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kai Kamaka III 0 32 of 56 57% 34 of 58 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:37
Tony Kelley 0 43 of 81 53% 63 of 102 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Kai Kamaka III 0 39 of 57 68% 55 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:19
Tony Kelley 0 47 of 86 54% 85 of 124 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kai Kamaka III 114 of 185 61% 49 of 113 64 of 71 1 of 1 90 of 160 22 of 22 2 of 3
Tony Kelley 114 of 226 50% 63 of 152 35 of 54 16 of 20 76 of 182 38 of 44 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kai Kamaka III 43 of 72 59% 22 of 49 21 of 23 0 of 0 34 of 62 8 of 8 1 of 2
Tony Kelley 24 of 59 40% 5 of 35 9 of 14 10 of 10 22 of 57 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Kai Kamaka III 32 of 56 57% 12 of 32 19 of 23 1 of 1 30 of 54 1 of 1 1 of 1
Tony Kelley 43 of 81 53% 29 of 56 11 of 20 3 of 5 24 of 60 19 of 21 0 of 0
3 Kai Kamaka III 39 of 57 68% 15 of 32 24 of 25 0 of 0 26 of 44 13 of 13 0 of 0
Tony Kelley 47 of 86 54% 29 of 61 15 of 20 3 of 5 30 of 65 17 of 21 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kai Kamaka III vs. Tony Kelley

Round 1
It’s fight night once again for the UFC, in the form of a pay-per-view card with a heavyweight championship rubber match on tap for the marquee billing. We kick things off in the featherweight division between two UFC newcomers, as Kamaka III (7-2, 0-0 UFC) tries to become another victorious Hawaiian on the roster against Team Alpha Male product Kelley (5-1, 0-0 UFC). Referee Chris Tognoni will oversee the card-opening matchup, and with a touch of gloves, away we go! Kelley throws out a few jabs and a low kick right out of the gate. He flings a front kick, and then tries to step in with a one-two but gets countered. A quick jab from the Louisiana native halts the offense of his opponent for a moment, but Kamaka gathers himself and swings back hard. Kelley blocks it and dances out of the way, and tries to blitz forward, only to get countered with a short left hook. Kamaka lands another left hook, and Kelley responds with a pair of thudding leg kicks that make Kamaka turn his lead leg. The Hawaiian returns fire with a few punches that get Kelley’s attention, and they start trading heavy leather. Kelley targets the leg on the inside and out, while Kamaka is more interested in headhunting with solid success. He lands a right hand that makes Kelley crash in to score a knee up the middle, and backs off to stick him with a jab. Kelley connects with a left, but Kamaka pops him with that same effective left hook to back Kelley against the fence. Kamaka unloads on him with a few punches and a pounding body kick that gives Kelley some serious pause. Kelley resets on the outside, and lands a few shots when he comes in, but Kamaka gives it right back to him. An inside left kick from Kelley is followed by a left and a body kick, but Kamaka winds up and cracks him with a few punches to make Kelley retreat. Kamaka rushes him and presses him to the fence, where scoops up the leg and sets him down. Kelley gets back up, but Kamaka is not done yet as he keeps targeting the midsection with powerful punches and kicks. Kamaka does some damage with his punches, sending Kelley reeling. Kamaka keeps advancing and bulldozes his opponent over, only for Kelley to try to return to his feet by grabbing the fence. He is unable to return to a standing position, and Kamaka steps into his guard and lands some short ground-and-pound. Kelley walks up the fence, and he rips a few knees as Kamaka lumps up the body to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kamaka
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kamaka
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kamaka

Round 2
Kelley keeps his distance in the early going, attempting to stick his man with jabs while staying on the outside to avoid counters. Kelley lazily paws out a jab, and Kamaka sits down on a leg kick and nearly sets Kelley down. Kelley keeps his footing and tries to go for a sweep, but he cannot get it as Kamaka dodges it only to bear down on him. Kamaka lands a few punches that back Kelley away, and every body shot Kamaka connects with seems to make Kelley drops his hands a fraction of an inch. When the hands are lowered, Kamaka takes a low kick but goes over the top with a right hand. Kamaka mixes it up and lands a punch to the torso that nearly forces Kelley to double over. “Primetime” gathers himself and tries to get some kicks off to gain separation, but Kamaka ignores them and scores a left to the body. Kamaka blocks a punch and lands two punches down the middle, and his body work is drawing visible reactions out of his opponent. Kelley, who may be hurt, bites down his mouthpiece and starts to slug it out with “The Fighting Hawaiian.” They keep trading heavy shots, with Kelley taking advantage of his surprising burst of offense, so Kamaka changes levels and hits a quick double leg takedown to halt it. Kelley again grabs the fence to try to get back up, and Tognoni warns Kelley but he still is able to walk up the cage wall. One exchange or possibly a clash of heads has opened up a cut high on Kelley’s forehead, but he pays it no mind as he is more concerned with stuffing the subsequent takedown attempt and break free in the clinch. Kamaka scoops him back up and drops him down, planting the Team Alpha Male fighter on the ground for a moment. Kelley springs back up and in close proximity to his opponent, he hacks at him with several elbows. Kamaka shoots low for a double, and Kelley defends with elbows to the side of the head until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kelley
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kelley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kamaka

Round 3
They greet one another in the center of the cage with a glove touch, and Kelley quickly fires off a low kick. Kelley is a man possessed, and he starts unloading a series of damaging elbows to wobble Kamaka for a moment. As he pours it on, Kamaka closes in, so Kelley pulls guard for a guillotine choke but slides out. Kamaka winds up in top position in his opponent’s guard in the center of the cage, and rains down shots. Kelley is able to scoot his way to the fence, but Kelley drags him back down and takes his opponent’s back on the way up. Kelley is able to burst free, and the two get right back to it by going punch-for-punch. They stand in front of one another in a proverbial phone booth and start nailing each other, with Kelley stinging him with some knees and elbows while Kamaka punches to the body and the head. Kamaka, who is not getting the better of these brief slugfests, shoots in low for a double, but Kelley stuffs it and punches him repeatedly. Kelley stands him up and slashes at him with a pair of elbows, which forces Kamaka to back off. Once more, the action is furious as they blast each other in close quarters, and a knee from Kelley clanks off the cup to force a brief stoppage. Kamaka takes advantage of all the time necessary to get his wind back, which is something more fighters have done in a crowdless environment. Kamaka signals that he can continue, and with 90 seconds left, it still may be anybody’s fight. Kelley tries to get some jabs off, but a crisp one-two comes back at him from Kamaka. When Kamaka over-extends himself, Kelley sets up a Thai clinch and knees him to the body several times. Kelley ducks down for a body shot, as Kamaka fires back over the top at him. Kamaka dings him with a check left hook twice as Kelley is trying to come in, and Kelley nearly falls over in his final assault. Kamaka digs to the body with a stern left hand in the midst of a combination, and Kelley walks through it like a zombie. One second before the final buzzer, both land a punch at the same time, and this close thriller is now over.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kelley (29-28 Kelley)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kelley (29-28 Kelley)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kamaka (30-27 Kamaka)

The Official Result
Kai Kamaka III def. Tony Kelley via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 12, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Tony Kelley

Big Brady was impressed by Tony Kelley's performance against Kevin Aguilar, noting his crisp striking and takedowns. He thinks Kelley is the better defensive striker and has a size advantage. However, he admits the pick might change after more research and is not confident due to limited tape on Kamaka.

"i think tony kelly is the better fighter and i'm picking him to win"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Kai Kamaka III

Daniel Levi picks Kai Kamaka III to win his UFC debut. He believes Kamaka is the superior athlete and more well-rounded fighter. He notes Kamaka's aggressive style, body work, and cardio from his LFA fight. He criticizes Tony Kelley's takedown defense and tendency to play off his back. He expects Kamaka to push the pace and win a decision or late finish.

Kamaka by decision; Kelley's takedown defense is a weakness; Kamaka's body attacks are effective
"i'm going to go with kamaka i think he's probably the more well-rounded fighter i think he's got the higher ceiling"
Randy Costa - Fight History
LOSS vs Guido Cannetti
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 1:04 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · Oct 01, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Guido Cannetti 0 8 of 13 61% 8 of 13 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:09
Randy Costa 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Guido Cannetti 0 8 of 13 61% 8 of 13 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:09
Randy Costa 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Guido Cannetti 8 of 13 61% 1 of 5 3 of 3 4 of 5 8 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Randy Costa 2 of 7 28% 0 of 3 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Guido Cannetti 8 of 13 61% 1 of 5 3 of 3 4 of 5 8 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Randy Costa 2 of 7 28% 0 of 3 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Randy Costa

Cody picks Randy Costa to win, citing his striking and power. He notes that Costa has looked good in recent fights and that Cannetti is 42 and has durability issues. He expects an early finish and likes the under 2.5 rounds. He also sees value in Guido Cannetti as a live underdog if Costa fades.

Under 2.5 rounds; Guido Cannetti by KO in round 2
"I think Guido's getting stopped here so I got the the under sure to God this place not going 15 full minutes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Randy Costa

Paul picks Randy Costa to win, but is not confident in the -300 moneyline. He expects Costa to come out fast and finish early, but acknowledges Costa's cardio issues. He is interested in props on Guido Cannetti if Costa fades. He believes the fight will not go the distance and likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.

Under 2.5 rounds; fight doesn't go to decision -400; Guido Cannetti round 2 KO at 25-1
"I think Costa wins I guess for the purposes of this show I'll pick Costa but I'm kind of interesting we'll see where the props land"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Guido Cannetti

The MMA Guru picks Guido Cannetti, believing he will knock out Randy Costa in the first round. He notes that both fighters fade after the first round, but Cannetti has power and Costa has a weak chin. He calls Costa 'wolf tickets' and criticizes the -300 price on Costa, saying anyone betting that has a gambling addiction. He expects a first-round KO from Cannetti.

first round KO
"Give me Guido Cannetti... catch him early and put him away KO. Randy has no chin."
LOSS vs Tony Kelley
TKO (elbows) R2 4:15 · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tony Kelley 0 31 of 65 47% 32 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:29
Randy Costa 0 82 of 169 48% 129 of 218 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tony Kelley 0 16 of 37 43% 17 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:28
Randy Costa 0 35 of 90 38% 50 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
2 Tony Kelley 0 15 of 28 53% 15 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:01
Randy Costa 0 47 of 79 59% 79 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tony Kelley 31 of 65 47% 20 of 54 11 of 11 0 of 0 19 of 53 12 of 12 0 of 0
Randy Costa 82 of 169 48% 26 of 93 43 of 62 13 of 14 27 of 93 32 of 42 23 of 34
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tony Kelley 16 of 37 43% 8 of 29 8 of 8 0 of 0 8 of 29 8 of 8 0 of 0
Randy Costa 35 of 90 38% 6 of 48 23 of 35 6 of 7 17 of 64 18 of 26 0 of 0
2 Tony Kelley 15 of 28 53% 12 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0 11 of 24 4 of 4 0 of 0
Randy Costa 47 of 79 59% 20 of 45 20 of 27 7 of 7 10 of 29 14 of 16 23 of 34
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Randy Costa

Big Brady picks Randy Costa but with low confidence due to Costa's questionable cardio. He notes that Costa is explosive and powerful in the first round but tends to fade if the fight goes past round one, as seen in previous fights. He believes Costa will likely finish Kelley early by knockout, but if Kelley survives the initial storm, Kelley's cardio advantage could lead to a win. Brady mentions he would not bet Costa on the moneyline but would consider a round 1 or inside the distance prop.

Randy Costa round 1 or inside the distance
"give me randy costa for the win i think he does knock out tony kelly in the first round but if he does not i think the fight gets very very interesting"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tony Kelley

Daniel Levi picks Tony Kelley to win by late stoppage or decision. He argues that Randy Costa is a first-round finisher but fades if he can't get the knockout, citing losses to Brandon Davis and Adrian Yanez. Levi emphasizes Kelley's durability, never being finished, and his experience going five rounds. He believes if Kelley survives the first seven minutes, Costa will fall apart mentally and physically. Levi notes Costa's questionable mentality, referencing an interview where Costa cried before an amateur fight.

"just stay alive for seven minutes tony and then you're a very live underdog to come out here and win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Randy Costa

Costa is the much better striker, quicker and more explosive, but his gas tank is a major concern. If he doesn't finish early, Kelley will take over in the later rounds. The fight likely ends inside the distance, either by Costa's early KO or Kelley's late submission. The play is 'fight doesn't go to decision' to cover both outcomes.

fight doesn't go to decision
"the play here is the fight doesn't go to decision i'm expecting kosovo to starch him in round one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Randy Costa

The MMA Guru confidently picks Randy Costa to win by head kick KO in the first round. He praises Costa's potential and striking, noting his impressive performance against Adrian Yanez. He criticizes Tony Kelley's one-dimensional style and lack of cardio, believing Costa's reach advantage and power will be decisive.

head kick KO in first round
"i think he's going to get a head kick ko in the first round that's what i'm going for don't mess with the zohan"
LOSS vs Adrian Yañez
TKO (punches) R2 2:11 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · Jul 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Adrian Yañez 1 64 of 184 34% 64 of 184 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Randy Costa 0 69 of 153 45% 69 of 153 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Adrian Yañez 0 33 of 106 31% 33 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Randy Costa 0 57 of 123 46% 57 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Adrian Yañez 1 31 of 78 39% 31 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Randy Costa 0 12 of 30 40% 12 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Adrian Yañez 64 of 184 34% 41 of 146 6 of 19 17 of 19 58 of 172 0 of 0 6 of 12
Randy Costa 69 of 153 45% 61 of 144 5 of 6 3 of 3 69 of 153 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Adrian Yañez 33 of 106 31% 17 of 83 4 of 11 12 of 12 33 of 106 0 of 0 0 of 0
Randy Costa 57 of 123 46% 50 of 115 4 of 5 3 of 3 57 of 123 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Adrian Yañez 31 of 78 39% 24 of 63 2 of 8 5 of 7 25 of 66 0 of 0 6 of 12
Randy Costa 12 of 30 40% 11 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0 12 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Randy Costa vs. Adrian Yanez

Round 1
The main card begins with a bantamweight matchup many were calling to slide into the co-main event slot with the loss of Aspen Ladd vs. Macy Chiasson, but instead Yanez (13-3, 2-0 UFC) and Costa (6-1, 2-1 UFC) will whet the appetites of those tuning into this five-fight ESPN showcase. While Yanez is riding a three-fight knockout streak, Costa has never competed beyond 6:12 as a pro, so referee Chris Tognoni has his game face on for as long as it lasts. The gloves are touched, and they are locked and loaded to come at their foes much faster next time. Yanez is first to strike, with a front kick up the middle, and Costa is there with a pair of speedy head kicks. Yanez sticks his hands in his foe’s face, and Costa brushes his own hair back and spins with a wheel kick. Costa’s head kick is his main weapon, and Yanez blocks them in time until he changes it up to throw low. High kicks from both legs soar at Yanez, who is forced to stay defensive as Costa is bearing down on him with kicks. The Houstonian rolls through a head kick and checks a calf kick shortly thereafter, and he remains composed to chop at Costa’s calf. Costa loops a right hand over the top, and Yanez is eating blows but trying to reply with left hands. Costa sets up a head kick with punches, and Yanez eats several punches on the nose that bloody him up. Costa intermittently spams jabs that split the guard, and he ducks and dodges when Yanez looks to counter. A kick to the body from Costa draws a visible reaction out of Yanez, and “The Zohan” is out of the way when Yanez is reach to fire back at him. Costa stings Yanez with a right hand, doubles up his jab and fires off another looping right hand. Yanez’ nose is a bloody mess as he takes punch after punch cleanly, and Costa is sharp and accurate as he tattoos Yanez’ face with these strikes. A fierce one-two snaps the head back of Yanez, and Yanez looks to jab and put a few punches together and gain some respect from Costa. He gets Costa’s attention with a right hand, and he begins to turn the tide as he starts walking Costa down to land accurately. Costa slings heavy leather, and Yanez starts to piece him up with jabs. Costa’s pace has waned significantly as Yanez is continually pressing the pace on him, and just as Yanez looks to gain the upper hand, Costa kicks him in the face. Yanez stretches his jaw out and walks forward like a Texas Terminator, ignoring kicks from “The Zohan” and busting Costa’s nose up. The round ends with a tense exchange.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 2
Tognoni wipes a bloodied Yanez down right before the round begins, and the bantamweight bangers touch hands to start it off. Yanez gets right back to his jab, and he chips at the Boston native with low kicks. Costa mixes up his own jab string with a high kick, and he tags Yanez with a right hand and just misses with a follow-up shot. Yanez gets Costa’s attention with a left hook, and the accuracy and damage is high while defense is not nearly as important. Costa fakes high with a kick and digs his shin in the liver, and Yanez does not even register the blow and pressures Costa with a long series of punches. Yanez starts to get in his groove, pressuring Costa and landing with several punches until Costa shoots for a possible takedown. Yanez is easily out of the way, and Yanez’ jabs have bloodied Costa’s nose up badly.
Yanez rips the body with a few punches, and an uppercut up the middle drops Costa to his knees. Costa looks pained and in trouble, but he sways back and forth to avoid strikes that come. Yanez pours it on with standing punches while Costa is kneeled down, teeing off on a spent Costa with a vicious barrage of punches until Tognoni is forced to step in and rescue Costa.
That’s three UFC knockouts in a row for Yanez, who collects his most impressive scalp by outlasting a storm and beating “The Zohan” at his own game.

The Official Result
Adrian Yanez def. Randy Costa R2 2:11 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Angelo picks Adrian Yañez because he is a technical striker with fast hands, power, and an incredible chin. He expects Yañez to win by knockout in the late first or early second round. He has already bet the over 1.5 rounds and the more/more on monkey knife fight, believing the fight will be active and go past the first round despite Costa's history of early finishes. He thinks the odds are a bit wide and the fight is more competitive than implied.

over 1.5 rounds bet; more/more on monkey knife fight
"i have the over on rounds anytime i see rounds set at one and a half i really look at it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Big Brady picks Adrian Yañez to win by second-round knockout. He notes Yañez's power, volume, cardio, and durability (never knocked out), while Costa is a first-round finisher who fades if the fight extends. He highlights Costa's entire career has lasted about 12 minutes and he was finished in his only fight past the first round. He acknowledges Costa is live for an early finish but believes Yañez has more paths to victory.

Yañez by second round knockout
"i'll take giannis here i'll take him to win by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Cody picks Yanez, calling him a different level striker. He notes Yanez has never been finished by strikes and has a good chin. He thinks Costa is explosive but only dangerous in round one, and that Yanez's counter striking and boxing are clinical. He loaded up on Yanez at -170.

"the pick is yan as i just think he's just on a whole different level from a striking department"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Daniel Levi picks Adrian Yañez, emphasizing his smooth counter-striking, footwork, and head movement. He notes that Costa's wild style plays into Yañez's game, and that Yañez has a rock-solid chin and underrated ground game. Levi predicts a mid-second round TKO, as Costa lacks the experience to win a long battle and must finish early. He dismisses Costa's high-kick threat, stating Yañez has never been rocked.

predicts mid-second round TKO
"i'm gonna go with yanez here as well um i'm thinking probably mid second round tko"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Jacob picks Adrian Yañez because he is more technical and precise, while Randy Costa throws looping shots. He notes that Costa needs to use his length but doesn't throw straight punches. He also jokes that Costa's Twitter bio says 'professional bad decision maker,' which swayed him. He has Yañez in his DraftKings lineup and expects him to get the job done.

"i have uh janae's in my lineup and i think he's gonna win but that's just because i think he's just a little bit more technical a little bit more precise"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Adrian Yañez

The host picks Adrian Yañez, praising his striking defense and counter-striking ability. He expects Yañez to weather Costa's early wild attacks and then find a knockout in the second round. He notes Costa's cardio issues and wild style play into Yañez's hands. He likes Yañez by KO at -110 and Yañez in round two at +425.

Yañez by KO -110; Yañez in round two +425
"adriana's by ko minus 110 makes the most sense here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Paul agrees, calling Yanez a top ticket play. He praises Yanez's slick counter punching, high guard, and ability to bait opponents. He notes Costa's only path is a bomb rush in the first round, and that Costa's social media focus on the peanut butter cup vs Dr Pepper meme might distract him. He thinks Yanez is a green version of Masvidal.

"janice is one of our guys i i imagine to me he feels like a top ticket play"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

The Guru picks Yañez for his superior technique and chin, contrasting with Costa's wildness and chin issues. He notes Costa's tendency to get clipped and his weight cut problems. He predicts a first-round KO via straight right hand as Costa loads up a switch kick. He also suggests betting on the fight ending in the first round.

first round KO; bet on fight ending in first round
"i'll say round one ko adrian yanez"
KO (head kick) R1 0:41 · UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · Sep 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Randy Costa 0 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Journey Newson 1 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Randy Costa 0 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Journey Newson 1 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Randy Costa 1 of 5 20% 1 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Journey Newson 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Randy Costa 1 of 5 20% 1 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Journey Newson 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Randy Costa

Big Brady picks Randy Costa to get a first-round knockout, citing Costa's exciting style and willingness to throw with no regard. He notes Newson's path to victory is surviving the early storm or taking Costa down, but Costa has improved takedown defense. He eyes the under 1.5 rounds prop as plus money.

Under 1.5 rounds
"give me cost to get the first round knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 18, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Journey Newson

The host believes Journey Newson is the more complete fighter with a brown belt in jiu-jitsu, while Randy Costa is a one-dimensional power puncher who fades after the first round. He expects Newson to weather Costa's early onslaught, take him down, and secure a submission. He notes Costa's lack of grappling experience and poor takedown defense, as seen in his loss to Brandon Davis.

Journey Newson wins by submission in round 1; Randy Costa wins in round 1 prop (if betting Costa)
"I think we'll see journey newson go out there and just get costed down within that first round or sorry first minute and really start to work his brown belt."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Randy Costa

The host picks Randy Costa over Journey Newson, citing Costa's youth, improvement, and ability to win wild exchanges. He notes Costa's knee injury in his loss to Brandon Davis and his recent first-round win. He predicts a first-round KO.

first round KO
"I'm going to be going with Randa Koster getting it done in a wild exchange in the first round... randy koster ends it with a big shot finishing journey newson in the first round."
WIN vs Boston Salmon
TKO (punches) R1 2:15 · UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Weidman · Oct 18, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Randy Costa 2 22 of 44 50% 23 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Boston Salmon 0 12 of 22 54% 16 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Randy Costa 2 22 of 44 50% 23 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Boston Salmon 0 12 of 22 54% 16 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Randy Costa 22 of 44 50% 21 of 41 1 of 3 0 of 0 19 of 36 0 of 1 3 of 7
Boston Salmon 12 of 22 54% 4 of 13 7 of 8 1 of 1 11 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Randy Costa 22 of 44 50% 21 of 41 1 of 3 0 of 0 19 of 36 0 of 1 3 of 7
Boston Salmon 12 of 22 54% 4 of 13 7 of 8 1 of 1 11 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
LOSS vs Brandon Davis
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:12 · UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 · Apr 13, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brandon Davis 0 35 of 88 39% 40 of 93 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:16
Randy Costa 0 46 of 101 45% 49 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brandon Davis 0 29 of 69 42% 33 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:08
Randy Costa 0 34 of 79 43% 36 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
2 Brandon Davis 0 6 of 19 31% 7 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:08
Randy Costa 0 12 of 22 54% 13 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brandon Davis 35 of 88 39% 20 of 67 6 of 11 9 of 10 30 of 82 5 of 6 0 of 0
Randy Costa 46 of 101 45% 37 of 89 8 of 11 1 of 1 44 of 98 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brandon Davis 29 of 69 42% 17 of 51 3 of 8 9 of 10 25 of 64 4 of 5 0 of 0
Randy Costa 34 of 79 43% 27 of 70 6 of 8 1 of 1 32 of 76 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Brandon Davis 6 of 19 31% 3 of 16 3 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
Randy Costa 12 of 22 54% 10 of 19 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Randy Costa

Big Brady picks Randy Costa but with low confidence due to Costa's questionable cardio. He notes that Costa is explosive and powerful in the first round but tends to fade if the fight goes past round one, as seen in previous fights. He believes Costa will likely finish Kelley early by knockout, but if Kelley survives the initial storm, Kelley's cardio advantage could lead to a win. Brady mentions he would not bet Costa on the moneyline but would consider a round 1 or inside the distance prop.

Randy Costa round 1 or inside the distance
"give me randy costa for the win i think he does knock out tony kelly in the first round but if he does not i think the fight gets very very interesting"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tony Kelley

Daniel Levi picks Tony Kelley to win by late stoppage or decision. He argues that Randy Costa is a first-round finisher but fades if he can't get the knockout, citing losses to Brandon Davis and Adrian Yanez. Levi emphasizes Kelley's durability, never being finished, and his experience going five rounds. He believes if Kelley survives the first seven minutes, Costa will fall apart mentally and physically. Levi notes Costa's questionable mentality, referencing an interview where Costa cried before an amateur fight.

"just stay alive for seven minutes tony and then you're a very live underdog to come out here and win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Randy Costa

Costa is the much better striker, quicker and more explosive, but his gas tank is a major concern. If he doesn't finish early, Kelley will take over in the later rounds. The fight likely ends inside the distance, either by Costa's early KO or Kelley's late submission. The play is 'fight doesn't go to decision' to cover both outcomes.

fight doesn't go to decision
"the play here is the fight doesn't go to decision i'm expecting kosovo to starch him in round one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Randy Costa

The MMA Guru confidently picks Randy Costa to win by head kick KO in the first round. He praises Costa's potential and striking, noting his impressive performance against Adrian Yanez. He criticizes Tony Kelley's one-dimensional style and lack of cardio, believing Costa's reach advantage and power will be decisive.

head kick KO in first round
"i think he's going to get a head kick ko in the first round that's what i'm going for don't mess with the zohan"