vs
+175 -188
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021 · Bantamweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier Next Fight
Age 39
Height 5' 9"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 31
Height 5' 9"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Tony Kelley
5.55 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
4.85 SApM
45.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
52.0% TD Def.
1.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Randy Costa
6.53 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
7.58 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Tony Kelley
Moneyline
Caesars +175
KO/TKO
DraftKings +900
Submission
BetRivers +650
Decision
BetWay +400
Randy Costa
Moneyline
BetWay -188
KO/TKO
FanDuel -110
Submission
BetWay +2000
Decision
DraftKings +550
Tony Kelley - Fight History
LOSS vs Adrian Yañez
TKO (punches) R1 3:49 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Emmett · Jun 18, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Adrian Yañez 1 35 of 67 52% 36 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Tony Kelley 0 20 of 49 40% 21 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Adrian Yañez 1 35 of 67 52% 36 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Tony Kelley 0 20 of 49 40% 21 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Adrian Yañez 35 of 67 52% 29 of 60 6 of 7 0 of 0 29 of 60 1 of 2 5 of 5
Tony Kelley 20 of 49 40% 12 of 29 6 of 16 2 of 4 20 of 48 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Adrian Yañez 35 of 67 52% 29 of 60 6 of 7 0 of 0 29 of 60 1 of 2 5 of 5
Tony Kelley 20 of 49 40% 12 of 29 6 of 16 2 of 4 20 of 48 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Tony Kelley

Angelo picks Tony Kelley in an upset, citing his forward pressure, volume, and ability to disrupt Adrian Yañez's rhythm. He notes Yañez's slow starts and willingness to brawl, which plays into Kelley's hands. He mentions Kelley's impressive win over Randy Costa (129 strikes to 32) and believes Kelley can maintain pace.

"i think i'm going tony kelly here because even though yanez is the more technical striker his slow start and willingness to engage in a brawl can lead him down the wrong path"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Big Brady picks Adrian Yañez to win by third-round knockout. He notes Yañez is a slow starter but has clear power advantage and good combinations, while Kelley is very hittable with 45% striking defense. He expects Kelley to win the first round but Yañez's damage to accumulate and lead to a late knockout.

third round knockout
"I like giannis here i like him by second or third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Cody picks Yañez but emphasizes the over 2.5 rounds as the best bet on the card. He notes neither fighter has been finished and Yañez tends to have close fights. He thinks Yañez's technical striking will win but the fight goes to decision. He calls the over 2.5 a 'face slapper' line.

Over 2.5 rounds (biggest investment of the week)
"over two and a half i think is the play of the card here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 16, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Daniel Levi leans Adrian Yañez, citing his cleaner hands and improved kicking game, plus the hometown advantage in Texas. However, he notes Yañez absorbs a lot of strikes (nearly six per minute) and Tony Kelley is a durable, high-output fighter who could make it competitive. Levi thinks it will be a close three-round fight and Yañez may get a decision, but the -280 price is too high for comfort. He acknowledges Kelley at +240 has value.

Yañez -280 is too high; Kelley +240 has value; close decision likely
"i lean yanez but i mean i don't fault y'all for taking that shot on tony kelly"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tony Kelley

Paul is considering a Tony Kelley play, noting Yañez's struggles against aggressive fighters and his close split decisions. He thinks Kelley's durability and improved training with Andrea Lee make him a live underdog. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds.

Over 2.5 rounds; Tony Kelley by decision +600
"i'm contemplating a tony kelly play truth be told"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

The MMA Guru picks Adrian Yañez, though he worries about his performance against Davey Grant. He believes Tony Kelley is tough but has been eking out close decisions. He expects Yañez to use better distance control and body shots, winning a decision (29-28 or 30-27) in a scrappy fight, with Kelley surviving but losing.

"i'm gonna be sliding with adrien yanez here... i think he'll invest in body shots he has got good take down defense"
WIN vs Randy Costa
TKO (elbows) R2 4:15 · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tony Kelley 0 31 of 65 47% 32 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:29
Randy Costa 0 82 of 169 48% 129 of 218 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tony Kelley 0 16 of 37 43% 17 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:28
Randy Costa 0 35 of 90 38% 50 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
2 Tony Kelley 0 15 of 28 53% 15 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:01
Randy Costa 0 47 of 79 59% 79 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tony Kelley 31 of 65 47% 20 of 54 11 of 11 0 of 0 19 of 53 12 of 12 0 of 0
Randy Costa 82 of 169 48% 26 of 93 43 of 62 13 of 14 27 of 93 32 of 42 23 of 34
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tony Kelley 16 of 37 43% 8 of 29 8 of 8 0 of 0 8 of 29 8 of 8 0 of 0
Randy Costa 35 of 90 38% 6 of 48 23 of 35 6 of 7 17 of 64 18 of 26 0 of 0
2 Tony Kelley 15 of 28 53% 12 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0 11 of 24 4 of 4 0 of 0
Randy Costa 47 of 79 59% 20 of 45 20 of 27 7 of 7 10 of 29 14 of 16 23 of 34
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Randy Costa

Big Brady picks Randy Costa but with low confidence due to Costa's questionable cardio. He notes that Costa is explosive and powerful in the first round but tends to fade if the fight goes past round one, as seen in previous fights. He believes Costa will likely finish Kelley early by knockout, but if Kelley survives the initial storm, Kelley's cardio advantage could lead to a win. Brady mentions he would not bet Costa on the moneyline but would consider a round 1 or inside the distance prop.

Randy Costa round 1 or inside the distance
"give me randy costa for the win i think he does knock out tony kelly in the first round but if he does not i think the fight gets very very interesting"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tony Kelley

Daniel Levi picks Tony Kelley to win by late stoppage or decision. He argues that Randy Costa is a first-round finisher but fades if he can't get the knockout, citing losses to Brandon Davis and Adrian Yanez. Levi emphasizes Kelley's durability, never being finished, and his experience going five rounds. He believes if Kelley survives the first seven minutes, Costa will fall apart mentally and physically. Levi notes Costa's questionable mentality, referencing an interview where Costa cried before an amateur fight.

"just stay alive for seven minutes tony and then you're a very live underdog to come out here and win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Randy Costa

Costa is the much better striker, quicker and more explosive, but his gas tank is a major concern. If he doesn't finish early, Kelley will take over in the later rounds. The fight likely ends inside the distance, either by Costa's early KO or Kelley's late submission. The play is 'fight doesn't go to decision' to cover both outcomes.

fight doesn't go to decision
"the play here is the fight doesn't go to decision i'm expecting kosovo to starch him in round one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Randy Costa

The MMA Guru confidently picks Randy Costa to win by head kick KO in the first round. He praises Costa's potential and striking, noting his impressive performance against Adrian Yanez. He criticizes Tony Kelley's one-dimensional style and lack of cardio, believing Costa's reach advantage and power will be decisive.

head kick KO in first round
"i think he's going to get a head kick ko in the first round that's what i'm going for don't mess with the zohan"
WIN vs Ali AlQaisi
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · Oct 11, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tony Kelley 0 29 of 67 43% 58 of 103 5 of 15 33% 1 0 6:00
Ali AlQaisi 0 23 of 62 37% 61 of 109 0 of 0 --- 4 0 1:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tony Kelley 0 0 of 3 0% 20 of 24 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:48
Ali AlQaisi 0 1 of 2 50% 13 of 16 0 of 0 --- 4 0 0:22
2 Tony Kelley 0 7 of 19 36% 16 of 32 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:50
Ali AlQaisi 0 7 of 19 36% 22 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
3 Tony Kelley 0 22 of 45 48% 22 of 47 2 of 9 22% 0 0 0:22
Ali AlQaisi 0 15 of 41 36% 26 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tony Kelley 29 of 67 43% 12 of 42 3 of 6 14 of 19 27 of 61 1 of 3 1 of 3
Ali AlQaisi 23 of 62 37% 11 of 43 5 of 9 7 of 10 21 of 58 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tony Kelley 0 of 3 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0
Ali AlQaisi 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tony Kelley 7 of 19 36% 3 of 12 1 of 4 3 of 3 6 of 16 0 of 1 1 of 2
Ali AlQaisi 7 of 19 36% 4 of 14 0 of 0 3 of 5 7 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Tony Kelley 22 of 45 48% 9 of 29 2 of 2 11 of 14 21 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 1
Ali AlQaisi 15 of 41 36% 7 of 28 5 of 9 3 of 4 13 of 37 2 of 4 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Ali AlQaisi

Big Brady picks the underdog AlQaisi, citing his takedown and submission game as a clear path to victory against Kelley's questionable takedown defense. He notes Kelley throws high volume but can be taken down easily. He expects AlQaisi to win a close decision if he sticks to takedowns and doesn't tire.

AlQaisi by decision
"i'm gonna go with the underdog here and i'm gonna go with al casey to get the win"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Tony Kelley

Daniel picks Tony Kelley to win, likely by finish. He notes that Kelley has a wider arsenal of strikes and better cardio, while AlQaisi is stiff and one-dimensional. He believes Kelley's volume and calf kicks will be too much, and that AlQaisi's top control is not good enough to keep Kelley down. Daniel also mentions that Kelley showed good cardio in his short-notice fight against Kamaka.

Daniel predicts a finish for Kelley, possibly by strikes. He also mentions that Kelley dropped to 135 for this fight.
"I feel like tony kelly this is his fight and i feel like he's actually going to finish alkazi somewhere along the way so i got a tony kelly"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Tony Kelley

Kelley has superior striking, footwork, and range, but this is his first fight at bantamweight and he took damage in his last fight. AlQaisi will likely try to grapple, but Kelley's takedown defense and offensive guard should keep him safe. Expect a decision win for Kelley.

"i do like kelly here there's a little bit of skepticism on my end"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Tony Kelley

The Guru picks Kelley, citing his size at bantamweight and past performances. He notes Kelley went to a split decision with Kevin Aguilar (who was on a tear) and looked good in a loss to Kai Kamaka. He believes Kelley will be too big and rangy, dominating on the feet and in grappling, and predicts a third-round finish.

third round finish
"i think he'll be ali elquisi and i'll say he'll win by a third round finish"
LOSS vs Kai Kamaka III
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · Aug 15, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kai Kamaka III 0 114 of 185 61% 138 of 216 5 of 5 100% 0 0 5:09
Tony Kelley 0 114 of 226 50% 185 of 298 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kai Kamaka III 0 43 of 72 59% 49 of 79 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:13
Tony Kelley 0 24 of 59 40% 37 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kai Kamaka III 0 32 of 56 57% 34 of 58 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:37
Tony Kelley 0 43 of 81 53% 63 of 102 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Kai Kamaka III 0 39 of 57 68% 55 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:19
Tony Kelley 0 47 of 86 54% 85 of 124 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kai Kamaka III 114 of 185 61% 49 of 113 64 of 71 1 of 1 90 of 160 22 of 22 2 of 3
Tony Kelley 114 of 226 50% 63 of 152 35 of 54 16 of 20 76 of 182 38 of 44 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kai Kamaka III 43 of 72 59% 22 of 49 21 of 23 0 of 0 34 of 62 8 of 8 1 of 2
Tony Kelley 24 of 59 40% 5 of 35 9 of 14 10 of 10 22 of 57 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Kai Kamaka III 32 of 56 57% 12 of 32 19 of 23 1 of 1 30 of 54 1 of 1 1 of 1
Tony Kelley 43 of 81 53% 29 of 56 11 of 20 3 of 5 24 of 60 19 of 21 0 of 0
3 Kai Kamaka III 39 of 57 68% 15 of 32 24 of 25 0 of 0 26 of 44 13 of 13 0 of 0
Tony Kelley 47 of 86 54% 29 of 61 15 of 20 3 of 5 30 of 65 17 of 21 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 12, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Tony Kelley

Big Brady was impressed by Tony Kelley's performance against Kevin Aguilar, noting his crisp striking and takedowns. He thinks Kelley is the better defensive striker and has a size advantage. However, he admits the pick might change after more research and is not confident due to limited tape on Kamaka.

"i think tony kelly is the better fighter and i'm picking him to win"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Kai Kamaka III

Daniel Levi picks Kai Kamaka III to win his UFC debut. He believes Kamaka is the superior athlete and more well-rounded fighter. He notes Kamaka's aggressive style, body work, and cardio from his LFA fight. He criticizes Tony Kelley's takedown defense and tendency to play off his back. He expects Kamaka to push the pace and win a decision or late finish.

Kamaka by decision; Kelley's takedown defense is a weakness; Kamaka's body attacks are effective
"i'm going to go with kamaka i think he's probably the more well-rounded fighter i think he's got the higher ceiling"
Randy Costa - Fight History
LOSS vs Guido Cannetti
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 1:04 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · Oct 01, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Guido Cannetti 0 8 of 13 61% 8 of 13 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:09
Randy Costa 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Guido Cannetti 0 8 of 13 61% 8 of 13 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:09
Randy Costa 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Guido Cannetti 8 of 13 61% 1 of 5 3 of 3 4 of 5 8 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Randy Costa 2 of 7 28% 0 of 3 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Guido Cannetti 8 of 13 61% 1 of 5 3 of 3 4 of 5 8 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Randy Costa 2 of 7 28% 0 of 3 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Randy Costa

Cody picks Randy Costa to win, citing his striking and power. He notes that Costa has looked good in recent fights and that Cannetti is 42 and has durability issues. He expects an early finish and likes the under 2.5 rounds. He also sees value in Guido Cannetti as a live underdog if Costa fades.

Under 2.5 rounds; Guido Cannetti by KO in round 2
"I think Guido's getting stopped here so I got the the under sure to God this place not going 15 full minutes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Randy Costa

Paul picks Randy Costa to win, but is not confident in the -300 moneyline. He expects Costa to come out fast and finish early, but acknowledges Costa's cardio issues. He is interested in props on Guido Cannetti if Costa fades. He believes the fight will not go the distance and likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.

Under 2.5 rounds; fight doesn't go to decision -400; Guido Cannetti round 2 KO at 25-1
"I think Costa wins I guess for the purposes of this show I'll pick Costa but I'm kind of interesting we'll see where the props land"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Guido Cannetti

The MMA Guru picks Guido Cannetti, believing he will knock out Randy Costa in the first round. He notes that both fighters fade after the first round, but Cannetti has power and Costa has a weak chin. He calls Costa 'wolf tickets' and criticizes the -300 price on Costa, saying anyone betting that has a gambling addiction. He expects a first-round KO from Cannetti.

first round KO
"Give me Guido Cannetti... catch him early and put him away KO. Randy has no chin."
LOSS vs Tony Kelley
TKO (elbows) R2 4:15 · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tony Kelley 0 31 of 65 47% 32 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:29
Randy Costa 0 82 of 169 48% 129 of 218 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tony Kelley 0 16 of 37 43% 17 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:28
Randy Costa 0 35 of 90 38% 50 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
2 Tony Kelley 0 15 of 28 53% 15 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:01
Randy Costa 0 47 of 79 59% 79 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tony Kelley 31 of 65 47% 20 of 54 11 of 11 0 of 0 19 of 53 12 of 12 0 of 0
Randy Costa 82 of 169 48% 26 of 93 43 of 62 13 of 14 27 of 93 32 of 42 23 of 34
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tony Kelley 16 of 37 43% 8 of 29 8 of 8 0 of 0 8 of 29 8 of 8 0 of 0
Randy Costa 35 of 90 38% 6 of 48 23 of 35 6 of 7 17 of 64 18 of 26 0 of 0
2 Tony Kelley 15 of 28 53% 12 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0 11 of 24 4 of 4 0 of 0
Randy Costa 47 of 79 59% 20 of 45 20 of 27 7 of 7 10 of 29 14 of 16 23 of 34
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Randy Costa

Big Brady picks Randy Costa but with low confidence due to Costa's questionable cardio. He notes that Costa is explosive and powerful in the first round but tends to fade if the fight goes past round one, as seen in previous fights. He believes Costa will likely finish Kelley early by knockout, but if Kelley survives the initial storm, Kelley's cardio advantage could lead to a win. Brady mentions he would not bet Costa on the moneyline but would consider a round 1 or inside the distance prop.

Randy Costa round 1 or inside the distance
"give me randy costa for the win i think he does knock out tony kelly in the first round but if he does not i think the fight gets very very interesting"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tony Kelley

Daniel Levi picks Tony Kelley to win by late stoppage or decision. He argues that Randy Costa is a first-round finisher but fades if he can't get the knockout, citing losses to Brandon Davis and Adrian Yanez. Levi emphasizes Kelley's durability, never being finished, and his experience going five rounds. He believes if Kelley survives the first seven minutes, Costa will fall apart mentally and physically. Levi notes Costa's questionable mentality, referencing an interview where Costa cried before an amateur fight.

"just stay alive for seven minutes tony and then you're a very live underdog to come out here and win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Randy Costa

Costa is the much better striker, quicker and more explosive, but his gas tank is a major concern. If he doesn't finish early, Kelley will take over in the later rounds. The fight likely ends inside the distance, either by Costa's early KO or Kelley's late submission. The play is 'fight doesn't go to decision' to cover both outcomes.

fight doesn't go to decision
"the play here is the fight doesn't go to decision i'm expecting kosovo to starch him in round one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Randy Costa

The MMA Guru confidently picks Randy Costa to win by head kick KO in the first round. He praises Costa's potential and striking, noting his impressive performance against Adrian Yanez. He criticizes Tony Kelley's one-dimensional style and lack of cardio, believing Costa's reach advantage and power will be decisive.

head kick KO in first round
"i think he's going to get a head kick ko in the first round that's what i'm going for don't mess with the zohan"
LOSS vs Adrian Yañez
TKO (punches) R2 2:11 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · Jul 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Adrian Yañez 1 64 of 184 34% 64 of 184 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Randy Costa 0 69 of 153 45% 69 of 153 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Adrian Yañez 0 33 of 106 31% 33 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Randy Costa 0 57 of 123 46% 57 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Adrian Yañez 1 31 of 78 39% 31 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Randy Costa 0 12 of 30 40% 12 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Adrian Yañez 64 of 184 34% 41 of 146 6 of 19 17 of 19 58 of 172 0 of 0 6 of 12
Randy Costa 69 of 153 45% 61 of 144 5 of 6 3 of 3 69 of 153 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Adrian Yañez 33 of 106 31% 17 of 83 4 of 11 12 of 12 33 of 106 0 of 0 0 of 0
Randy Costa 57 of 123 46% 50 of 115 4 of 5 3 of 3 57 of 123 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Adrian Yañez 31 of 78 39% 24 of 63 2 of 8 5 of 7 25 of 66 0 of 0 6 of 12
Randy Costa 12 of 30 40% 11 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0 12 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Angelo picks Adrian Yañez because he is a technical striker with fast hands, power, and an incredible chin. He expects Yañez to win by knockout in the late first or early second round. He has already bet the over 1.5 rounds and the more/more on monkey knife fight, believing the fight will be active and go past the first round despite Costa's history of early finishes. He thinks the odds are a bit wide and the fight is more competitive than implied.

over 1.5 rounds bet; more/more on monkey knife fight
"i have the over on rounds anytime i see rounds set at one and a half i really look at it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Big Brady picks Adrian Yañez to win by second-round knockout. He notes Yañez's power, volume, cardio, and durability (never knocked out), while Costa is a first-round finisher who fades if the fight extends. He highlights Costa's entire career has lasted about 12 minutes and he was finished in his only fight past the first round. He acknowledges Costa is live for an early finish but believes Yañez has more paths to victory.

Yañez by second round knockout
"i'll take giannis here i'll take him to win by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Cody picks Yanez, calling him a different level striker. He notes Yanez has never been finished by strikes and has a good chin. He thinks Costa is explosive but only dangerous in round one, and that Yanez's counter striking and boxing are clinical. He loaded up on Yanez at -170.

"the pick is yan as i just think he's just on a whole different level from a striking department"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Daniel Levi picks Adrian Yañez, emphasizing his smooth counter-striking, footwork, and head movement. He notes that Costa's wild style plays into Yañez's game, and that Yañez has a rock-solid chin and underrated ground game. Levi predicts a mid-second round TKO, as Costa lacks the experience to win a long battle and must finish early. He dismisses Costa's high-kick threat, stating Yañez has never been rocked.

predicts mid-second round TKO
"i'm gonna go with yanez here as well um i'm thinking probably mid second round tko"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Jacob picks Adrian Yañez because he is more technical and precise, while Randy Costa throws looping shots. He notes that Costa needs to use his length but doesn't throw straight punches. He also jokes that Costa's Twitter bio says 'professional bad decision maker,' which swayed him. He has Yañez in his DraftKings lineup and expects him to get the job done.

"i have uh janae's in my lineup and i think he's gonna win but that's just because i think he's just a little bit more technical a little bit more precise"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Adrian Yañez

The host picks Adrian Yañez, praising his striking defense and counter-striking ability. He expects Yañez to weather Costa's early wild attacks and then find a knockout in the second round. He notes Costa's cardio issues and wild style play into Yañez's hands. He likes Yañez by KO at -110 and Yañez in round two at +425.

Yañez by KO -110; Yañez in round two +425
"adriana's by ko minus 110 makes the most sense here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Paul agrees, calling Yanez a top ticket play. He praises Yanez's slick counter punching, high guard, and ability to bait opponents. He notes Costa's only path is a bomb rush in the first round, and that Costa's social media focus on the peanut butter cup vs Dr Pepper meme might distract him. He thinks Yanez is a green version of Masvidal.

"janice is one of our guys i i imagine to me he feels like a top ticket play"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

The Guru picks Yañez for his superior technique and chin, contrasting with Costa's wildness and chin issues. He notes Costa's tendency to get clipped and his weight cut problems. He predicts a first-round KO via straight right hand as Costa loads up a switch kick. He also suggests betting on the fight ending in the first round.

first round KO; bet on fight ending in first round
"i'll say round one ko adrian yanez"
KO (head kick) R1 0:41 · UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · Sep 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Randy Costa 0 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Journey Newson 1 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Randy Costa 0 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Journey Newson 1 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Randy Costa 1 of 5 20% 1 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Journey Newson 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Randy Costa 1 of 5 20% 1 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Journey Newson 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Randy Costa

Big Brady picks Randy Costa to get a first-round knockout, citing Costa's exciting style and willingness to throw with no regard. He notes Newson's path to victory is surviving the early storm or taking Costa down, but Costa has improved takedown defense. He eyes the under 1.5 rounds prop as plus money.

Under 1.5 rounds
"give me cost to get the first round knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 18, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Journey Newson

The host believes Journey Newson is the more complete fighter with a brown belt in jiu-jitsu, while Randy Costa is a one-dimensional power puncher who fades after the first round. He expects Newson to weather Costa's early onslaught, take him down, and secure a submission. He notes Costa's lack of grappling experience and poor takedown defense, as seen in his loss to Brandon Davis.

Journey Newson wins by submission in round 1; Randy Costa wins in round 1 prop (if betting Costa)
"I think we'll see journey newson go out there and just get costed down within that first round or sorry first minute and really start to work his brown belt."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Randy Costa

The host picks Randy Costa over Journey Newson, citing Costa's youth, improvement, and ability to win wild exchanges. He notes Costa's knee injury in his loss to Brandon Davis and his recent first-round win. He predicts a first-round KO.

first round KO
"I'm going to be going with Randa Koster getting it done in a wild exchange in the first round... randy koster ends it with a big shot finishing journey newson in the first round."
WIN vs Boston Salmon
TKO (punches) R1 2:15 · UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Weidman · Oct 18, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Randy Costa 2 22 of 44 50% 23 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Boston Salmon 0 12 of 22 54% 16 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Randy Costa 2 22 of 44 50% 23 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Boston Salmon 0 12 of 22 54% 16 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Randy Costa 22 of 44 50% 21 of 41 1 of 3 0 of 0 19 of 36 0 of 1 3 of 7
Boston Salmon 12 of 22 54% 4 of 13 7 of 8 1 of 1 11 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Randy Costa 22 of 44 50% 21 of 41 1 of 3 0 of 0 19 of 36 0 of 1 3 of 7
Boston Salmon 12 of 22 54% 4 of 13 7 of 8 1 of 1 11 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
LOSS vs Brandon Davis
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:12 · UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 · Apr 13, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brandon Davis 0 35 of 88 39% 40 of 93 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:16
Randy Costa 0 46 of 101 45% 49 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brandon Davis 0 29 of 69 42% 33 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:08
Randy Costa 0 34 of 79 43% 36 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
2 Brandon Davis 0 6 of 19 31% 7 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:08
Randy Costa 0 12 of 22 54% 13 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brandon Davis 35 of 88 39% 20 of 67 6 of 11 9 of 10 30 of 82 5 of 6 0 of 0
Randy Costa 46 of 101 45% 37 of 89 8 of 11 1 of 1 44 of 98 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brandon Davis 29 of 69 42% 17 of 51 3 of 8 9 of 10 25 of 64 4 of 5 0 of 0
Randy Costa 34 of 79 43% 27 of 70 6 of 8 1 of 1 32 of 76 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Brandon Davis 6 of 19 31% 3 of 16 3 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
Randy Costa 12 of 22 54% 10 of 19 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Randy Costa

Big Brady picks Randy Costa but with low confidence due to Costa's questionable cardio. He notes that Costa is explosive and powerful in the first round but tends to fade if the fight goes past round one, as seen in previous fights. He believes Costa will likely finish Kelley early by knockout, but if Kelley survives the initial storm, Kelley's cardio advantage could lead to a win. Brady mentions he would not bet Costa on the moneyline but would consider a round 1 or inside the distance prop.

Randy Costa round 1 or inside the distance
"give me randy costa for the win i think he does knock out tony kelly in the first round but if he does not i think the fight gets very very interesting"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tony Kelley

Daniel Levi picks Tony Kelley to win by late stoppage or decision. He argues that Randy Costa is a first-round finisher but fades if he can't get the knockout, citing losses to Brandon Davis and Adrian Yanez. Levi emphasizes Kelley's durability, never being finished, and his experience going five rounds. He believes if Kelley survives the first seven minutes, Costa will fall apart mentally and physically. Levi notes Costa's questionable mentality, referencing an interview where Costa cried before an amateur fight.

"just stay alive for seven minutes tony and then you're a very live underdog to come out here and win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Randy Costa

Costa is the much better striker, quicker and more explosive, but his gas tank is a major concern. If he doesn't finish early, Kelley will take over in the later rounds. The fight likely ends inside the distance, either by Costa's early KO or Kelley's late submission. The play is 'fight doesn't go to decision' to cover both outcomes.

fight doesn't go to decision
"the play here is the fight doesn't go to decision i'm expecting kosovo to starch him in round one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Randy Costa

The MMA Guru confidently picks Randy Costa to win by head kick KO in the first round. He praises Costa's potential and striking, noting his impressive performance against Adrian Yanez. He criticizes Tony Kelley's one-dimensional style and lack of cardio, believing Costa's reach advantage and power will be decisive.

head kick KO in first round
"i think he's going to get a head kick ko in the first round that's what i'm going for don't mess with the zohan"