Career Averages - Tony Kelley
Career Averages - Randy Costa
Tony Kelley
Randy Costa
Tony Kelley - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Yañez | 1 | 35 of 67 | 52% | 36 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Tony Kelley | 0 | 20 of 49 | 40% | 21 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adrian Yañez | 1 | 35 of 67 | 52% | 36 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Tony Kelley | 0 | 20 of 49 | 40% | 21 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Yañez | 35 of 67 | 52% | 29 of 60 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 29 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 |
| Tony Kelley | 20 of 49 | 40% | 12 of 29 | 6 of 16 | 2 of 4 | 20 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adrian Yañez | 35 of 67 | 52% | 29 of 60 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 29 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 |
| Tony Kelley | 20 of 49 | 40% | 12 of 29 | 6 of 16 | 2 of 4 | 20 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Tony Kelley in an upset, citing his forward pressure, volume, and ability to disrupt Adrian Yañez's rhythm. He notes Yañez's slow starts and willingness to brawl, which plays into Kelley's hands. He mentions Kelley's impressive win over Randy Costa (129 strikes to 32) and believes Kelley can maintain pace.
Big Brady picks Adrian Yañez to win by third-round knockout. He notes Yañez is a slow starter but has clear power advantage and good combinations, while Kelley is very hittable with 45% striking defense. He expects Kelley to win the first round but Yañez's damage to accumulate and lead to a late knockout.
Cody picks Yañez but emphasizes the over 2.5 rounds as the best bet on the card. He notes neither fighter has been finished and Yañez tends to have close fights. He thinks Yañez's technical striking will win but the fight goes to decision. He calls the over 2.5 a 'face slapper' line.
Daniel Levi leans Adrian Yañez, citing his cleaner hands and improved kicking game, plus the hometown advantage in Texas. However, he notes Yañez absorbs a lot of strikes (nearly six per minute) and Tony Kelley is a durable, high-output fighter who could make it competitive. Levi thinks it will be a close three-round fight and Yañez may get a decision, but the -280 price is too high for comfort. He acknowledges Kelley at +240 has value.
Paul is considering a Tony Kelley play, noting Yañez's struggles against aggressive fighters and his close split decisions. He thinks Kelley's durability and improved training with Andrea Lee make him a live underdog. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Adrian Yañez, though he worries about his performance against Davey Grant. He believes Tony Kelley is tough but has been eking out close decisions. He expects Yañez to use better distance control and body shots, winning a decision (29-28 or 30-27) in a scrappy fight, with Kelley surviving but losing.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Kelley | 0 | 31 of 65 | 47% | 32 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:29 |
| Randy Costa | 0 | 82 of 169 | 48% | 129 of 218 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tony Kelley | 0 | 16 of 37 | 43% | 17 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
| Randy Costa | 0 | 35 of 90 | 38% | 50 of 105 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:43 | |
| 2 | Tony Kelley | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 15 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Randy Costa | 0 | 47 of 79 | 59% | 79 of 113 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Kelley | 31 of 65 | 47% | 20 of 54 | 11 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 53 | 12 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Randy Costa | 82 of 169 | 48% | 26 of 93 | 43 of 62 | 13 of 14 | 27 of 93 | 32 of 42 | 23 of 34 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tony Kelley | 16 of 37 | 43% | 8 of 29 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 29 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Randy Costa | 35 of 90 | 38% | 6 of 48 | 23 of 35 | 6 of 7 | 17 of 64 | 18 of 26 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tony Kelley | 15 of 28 | 53% | 12 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 24 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Randy Costa | 47 of 79 | 59% | 20 of 45 | 20 of 27 | 7 of 7 | 10 of 29 | 14 of 16 | 23 of 34 |
Big Brady picks Randy Costa but with low confidence due to Costa's questionable cardio. He notes that Costa is explosive and powerful in the first round but tends to fade if the fight goes past round one, as seen in previous fights. He believes Costa will likely finish Kelley early by knockout, but if Kelley survives the initial storm, Kelley's cardio advantage could lead to a win. Brady mentions he would not bet Costa on the moneyline but would consider a round 1 or inside the distance prop.
Daniel Levi picks Tony Kelley to win by late stoppage or decision. He argues that Randy Costa is a first-round finisher but fades if he can't get the knockout, citing losses to Brandon Davis and Adrian Yanez. Levi emphasizes Kelley's durability, never being finished, and his experience going five rounds. He believes if Kelley survives the first seven minutes, Costa will fall apart mentally and physically. Levi notes Costa's questionable mentality, referencing an interview where Costa cried before an amateur fight.
Costa is the much better striker, quicker and more explosive, but his gas tank is a major concern. If he doesn't finish early, Kelley will take over in the later rounds. The fight likely ends inside the distance, either by Costa's early KO or Kelley's late submission. The play is 'fight doesn't go to decision' to cover both outcomes.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Randy Costa to win by head kick KO in the first round. He praises Costa's potential and striking, noting his impressive performance against Adrian Yanez. He criticizes Tony Kelley's one-dimensional style and lack of cardio, believing Costa's reach advantage and power will be decisive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Kelley | 0 | 29 of 67 | 43% | 58 of 103 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 6:00 |
| Ali AlQaisi | 0 | 23 of 62 | 37% | 61 of 109 | 0 of 0 | --- | 4 | 0 | 1:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tony Kelley | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 20 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:48 |
| Ali AlQaisi | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 13 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 4 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 2 | Tony Kelley | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 16 of 32 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Ali AlQaisi | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 22 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 3 | Tony Kelley | 0 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 22 of 47 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Ali AlQaisi | 0 | 15 of 41 | 36% | 26 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Kelley | 29 of 67 | 43% | 12 of 42 | 3 of 6 | 14 of 19 | 27 of 61 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 3 |
| Ali AlQaisi | 23 of 62 | 37% | 11 of 43 | 5 of 9 | 7 of 10 | 21 of 58 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tony Kelley | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ali AlQaisi | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tony Kelley | 7 of 19 | 36% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Ali AlQaisi | 7 of 19 | 36% | 4 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tony Kelley | 22 of 45 | 48% | 9 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 14 | 21 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Ali AlQaisi | 15 of 41 | 36% | 7 of 28 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 13 of 37 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks the underdog AlQaisi, citing his takedown and submission game as a clear path to victory against Kelley's questionable takedown defense. He notes Kelley throws high volume but can be taken down easily. He expects AlQaisi to win a close decision if he sticks to takedowns and doesn't tire.
Daniel picks Tony Kelley to win, likely by finish. He notes that Kelley has a wider arsenal of strikes and better cardio, while AlQaisi is stiff and one-dimensional. He believes Kelley's volume and calf kicks will be too much, and that AlQaisi's top control is not good enough to keep Kelley down. Daniel also mentions that Kelley showed good cardio in his short-notice fight against Kamaka.
Kelley has superior striking, footwork, and range, but this is his first fight at bantamweight and he took damage in his last fight. AlQaisi will likely try to grapple, but Kelley's takedown defense and offensive guard should keep him safe. Expect a decision win for Kelley.
The Guru picks Kelley, citing his size at bantamweight and past performances. He notes Kelley went to a split decision with Kevin Aguilar (who was on a tear) and looked good in a loss to Kai Kamaka. He believes Kelley will be too big and rangy, dominating on the feet and in grappling, and predicts a third-round finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 114 of 185 | 61% | 138 of 216 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 5:09 |
| Tony Kelley | 0 | 114 of 226 | 50% | 185 of 298 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 43 of 72 | 59% | 49 of 79 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
| Tony Kelley | 0 | 24 of 59 | 40% | 37 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 32 of 56 | 57% | 34 of 58 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Tony Kelley | 0 | 43 of 81 | 53% | 63 of 102 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 39 of 57 | 68% | 55 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
| Tony Kelley | 0 | 47 of 86 | 54% | 85 of 124 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kamaka III | 114 of 185 | 61% | 49 of 113 | 64 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 90 of 160 | 22 of 22 | 2 of 3 |
| Tony Kelley | 114 of 226 | 50% | 63 of 152 | 35 of 54 | 16 of 20 | 76 of 182 | 38 of 44 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kamaka III | 43 of 72 | 59% | 22 of 49 | 21 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 62 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 2 |
| Tony Kelley | 24 of 59 | 40% | 5 of 35 | 9 of 14 | 10 of 10 | 22 of 57 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kai Kamaka III | 32 of 56 | 57% | 12 of 32 | 19 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Tony Kelley | 43 of 81 | 53% | 29 of 56 | 11 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 24 of 60 | 19 of 21 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kai Kamaka III | 39 of 57 | 68% | 15 of 32 | 24 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 44 | 13 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Kelley | 47 of 86 | 54% | 29 of 61 | 15 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 30 of 65 | 17 of 21 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady was impressed by Tony Kelley's performance against Kevin Aguilar, noting his crisp striking and takedowns. He thinks Kelley is the better defensive striker and has a size advantage. However, he admits the pick might change after more research and is not confident due to limited tape on Kamaka.
Daniel Levi picks Kai Kamaka III to win his UFC debut. He believes Kamaka is the superior athlete and more well-rounded fighter. He notes Kamaka's aggressive style, body work, and cardio from his LFA fight. He criticizes Tony Kelley's takedown defense and tendency to play off his back. He expects Kamaka to push the pace and win a decision or late finish.
Randy Costa - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido Cannetti | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Randy Costa | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guido Cannetti | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Randy Costa | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido Cannetti | 8 of 13 | 61% | 1 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Randy Costa | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guido Cannetti | 8 of 13 | 61% | 1 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Randy Costa | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Randy Costa to win, citing his striking and power. He notes that Costa has looked good in recent fights and that Cannetti is 42 and has durability issues. He expects an early finish and likes the under 2.5 rounds. He also sees value in Guido Cannetti as a live underdog if Costa fades.
Paul picks Randy Costa to win, but is not confident in the -300 moneyline. He expects Costa to come out fast and finish early, but acknowledges Costa's cardio issues. He is interested in props on Guido Cannetti if Costa fades. He believes the fight will not go the distance and likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.
The MMA Guru picks Guido Cannetti, believing he will knock out Randy Costa in the first round. He notes that both fighters fade after the first round, but Cannetti has power and Costa has a weak chin. He calls Costa 'wolf tickets' and criticizes the -300 price on Costa, saying anyone betting that has a gambling addiction. He expects a first-round KO from Cannetti.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Kelley | 0 | 31 of 65 | 47% | 32 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:29 |
| Randy Costa | 0 | 82 of 169 | 48% | 129 of 218 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tony Kelley | 0 | 16 of 37 | 43% | 17 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
| Randy Costa | 0 | 35 of 90 | 38% | 50 of 105 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:43 | |
| 2 | Tony Kelley | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 15 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Randy Costa | 0 | 47 of 79 | 59% | 79 of 113 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Kelley | 31 of 65 | 47% | 20 of 54 | 11 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 53 | 12 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Randy Costa | 82 of 169 | 48% | 26 of 93 | 43 of 62 | 13 of 14 | 27 of 93 | 32 of 42 | 23 of 34 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tony Kelley | 16 of 37 | 43% | 8 of 29 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 29 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Randy Costa | 35 of 90 | 38% | 6 of 48 | 23 of 35 | 6 of 7 | 17 of 64 | 18 of 26 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tony Kelley | 15 of 28 | 53% | 12 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 24 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Randy Costa | 47 of 79 | 59% | 20 of 45 | 20 of 27 | 7 of 7 | 10 of 29 | 14 of 16 | 23 of 34 |
Big Brady picks Randy Costa but with low confidence due to Costa's questionable cardio. He notes that Costa is explosive and powerful in the first round but tends to fade if the fight goes past round one, as seen in previous fights. He believes Costa will likely finish Kelley early by knockout, but if Kelley survives the initial storm, Kelley's cardio advantage could lead to a win. Brady mentions he would not bet Costa on the moneyline but would consider a round 1 or inside the distance prop.
Daniel Levi picks Tony Kelley to win by late stoppage or decision. He argues that Randy Costa is a first-round finisher but fades if he can't get the knockout, citing losses to Brandon Davis and Adrian Yanez. Levi emphasizes Kelley's durability, never being finished, and his experience going five rounds. He believes if Kelley survives the first seven minutes, Costa will fall apart mentally and physically. Levi notes Costa's questionable mentality, referencing an interview where Costa cried before an amateur fight.
Costa is the much better striker, quicker and more explosive, but his gas tank is a major concern. If he doesn't finish early, Kelley will take over in the later rounds. The fight likely ends inside the distance, either by Costa's early KO or Kelley's late submission. The play is 'fight doesn't go to decision' to cover both outcomes.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Randy Costa to win by head kick KO in the first round. He praises Costa's potential and striking, noting his impressive performance against Adrian Yanez. He criticizes Tony Kelley's one-dimensional style and lack of cardio, believing Costa's reach advantage and power will be decisive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Yañez | 1 | 64 of 184 | 34% | 64 of 184 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Randy Costa | 0 | 69 of 153 | 45% | 69 of 153 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adrian Yañez | 0 | 33 of 106 | 31% | 33 of 106 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Randy Costa | 0 | 57 of 123 | 46% | 57 of 123 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Adrian Yañez | 1 | 31 of 78 | 39% | 31 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Randy Costa | 0 | 12 of 30 | 40% | 12 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Yañez | 64 of 184 | 34% | 41 of 146 | 6 of 19 | 17 of 19 | 58 of 172 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 12 |
| Randy Costa | 69 of 153 | 45% | 61 of 144 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 69 of 153 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adrian Yañez | 33 of 106 | 31% | 17 of 83 | 4 of 11 | 12 of 12 | 33 of 106 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Randy Costa | 57 of 123 | 46% | 50 of 115 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 57 of 123 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Adrian Yañez | 31 of 78 | 39% | 24 of 63 | 2 of 8 | 5 of 7 | 25 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 12 |
| Randy Costa | 12 of 30 | 40% | 11 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Adrian Yañez because he is a technical striker with fast hands, power, and an incredible chin. He expects Yañez to win by knockout in the late first or early second round. He has already bet the over 1.5 rounds and the more/more on monkey knife fight, believing the fight will be active and go past the first round despite Costa's history of early finishes. He thinks the odds are a bit wide and the fight is more competitive than implied.
Big Brady picks Adrian Yañez to win by second-round knockout. He notes Yañez's power, volume, cardio, and durability (never knocked out), while Costa is a first-round finisher who fades if the fight extends. He highlights Costa's entire career has lasted about 12 minutes and he was finished in his only fight past the first round. He acknowledges Costa is live for an early finish but believes Yañez has more paths to victory.
Cody picks Yanez, calling him a different level striker. He notes Yanez has never been finished by strikes and has a good chin. He thinks Costa is explosive but only dangerous in round one, and that Yanez's counter striking and boxing are clinical. He loaded up on Yanez at -170.
Daniel Levi picks Adrian Yañez, emphasizing his smooth counter-striking, footwork, and head movement. He notes that Costa's wild style plays into Yañez's game, and that Yañez has a rock-solid chin and underrated ground game. Levi predicts a mid-second round TKO, as Costa lacks the experience to win a long battle and must finish early. He dismisses Costa's high-kick threat, stating Yañez has never been rocked.
Jacob picks Adrian Yañez because he is more technical and precise, while Randy Costa throws looping shots. He notes that Costa needs to use his length but doesn't throw straight punches. He also jokes that Costa's Twitter bio says 'professional bad decision maker,' which swayed him. He has Yañez in his DraftKings lineup and expects him to get the job done.
The host picks Adrian Yañez, praising his striking defense and counter-striking ability. He expects Yañez to weather Costa's early wild attacks and then find a knockout in the second round. He notes Costa's cardio issues and wild style play into Yañez's hands. He likes Yañez by KO at -110 and Yañez in round two at +425.
Paul agrees, calling Yanez a top ticket play. He praises Yanez's slick counter punching, high guard, and ability to bait opponents. He notes Costa's only path is a bomb rush in the first round, and that Costa's social media focus on the peanut butter cup vs Dr Pepper meme might distract him. He thinks Yanez is a green version of Masvidal.
The Guru picks Yañez for his superior technique and chin, contrasting with Costa's wildness and chin issues. He notes Costa's tendency to get clipped and his weight cut problems. He predicts a first-round KO via straight right hand as Costa loads up a switch kick. He also suggests betting on the fight ending in the first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Costa | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Journey Newson | 1 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randy Costa | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Journey Newson | 1 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Costa | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Journey Newson | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randy Costa | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Journey Newson | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Big Brady picks Randy Costa to get a first-round knockout, citing Costa's exciting style and willingness to throw with no regard. He notes Newson's path to victory is surviving the early storm or taking Costa down, but Costa has improved takedown defense. He eyes the under 1.5 rounds prop as plus money.
The host believes Journey Newson is the more complete fighter with a brown belt in jiu-jitsu, while Randy Costa is a one-dimensional power puncher who fades after the first round. He expects Newson to weather Costa's early onslaught, take him down, and secure a submission. He notes Costa's lack of grappling experience and poor takedown defense, as seen in his loss to Brandon Davis.
The host picks Randy Costa over Journey Newson, citing Costa's youth, improvement, and ability to win wild exchanges. He notes Costa's knee injury in his loss to Brandon Davis and his recent first-round win. He predicts a first-round KO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Costa | 2 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 23 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Boston Salmon | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randy Costa | 2 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 23 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Boston Salmon | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Costa | 22 of 44 | 50% | 21 of 41 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 7 |
| Boston Salmon | 12 of 22 | 54% | 4 of 13 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randy Costa | 22 of 44 | 50% | 21 of 41 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 7 |
| Boston Salmon | 12 of 22 | 54% | 4 of 13 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Davis | 0 | 35 of 88 | 39% | 40 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:16 |
| Randy Costa | 0 | 46 of 101 | 45% | 49 of 104 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Davis | 0 | 29 of 69 | 42% | 33 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:08 |
| Randy Costa | 0 | 34 of 79 | 43% | 36 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 | |
| 2 | Brandon Davis | 0 | 6 of 19 | 31% | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Randy Costa | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 13 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Davis | 35 of 88 | 39% | 20 of 67 | 6 of 11 | 9 of 10 | 30 of 82 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Randy Costa | 46 of 101 | 45% | 37 of 89 | 8 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 44 of 98 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Davis | 29 of 69 | 42% | 17 of 51 | 3 of 8 | 9 of 10 | 25 of 64 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Randy Costa | 34 of 79 | 43% | 27 of 70 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 32 of 76 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brandon Davis | 6 of 19 | 31% | 3 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Randy Costa | 12 of 22 | 54% | 10 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Expert Picks (4)
Big Brady picks Randy Costa but with low confidence due to Costa's questionable cardio. He notes that Costa is explosive and powerful in the first round but tends to fade if the fight goes past round one, as seen in previous fights. He believes Costa will likely finish Kelley early by knockout, but if Kelley survives the initial storm, Kelley's cardio advantage could lead to a win. Brady mentions he would not bet Costa on the moneyline but would consider a round 1 or inside the distance prop.
Daniel Levi picks Tony Kelley to win by late stoppage or decision. He argues that Randy Costa is a first-round finisher but fades if he can't get the knockout, citing losses to Brandon Davis and Adrian Yanez. Levi emphasizes Kelley's durability, never being finished, and his experience going five rounds. He believes if Kelley survives the first seven minutes, Costa will fall apart mentally and physically. Levi notes Costa's questionable mentality, referencing an interview where Costa cried before an amateur fight.
Costa is the much better striker, quicker and more explosive, but his gas tank is a major concern. If he doesn't finish early, Kelley will take over in the later rounds. The fight likely ends inside the distance, either by Costa's early KO or Kelley's late submission. The play is 'fight doesn't go to decision' to cover both outcomes.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Randy Costa to win by head kick KO in the first round. He praises Costa's potential and striking, noting his impressive performance against Adrian Yanez. He criticizes Tony Kelley's one-dimensional style and lack of cardio, believing Costa's reach advantage and power will be decisive.
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