vs
+105 -105
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021 · Bantamweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier Next Fight
Age 41
Height 5' 8"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 39
Height 5' 6"
Reach 65.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Dominick Cruz
3.91 SLpM
33.0% Str. Acc.
2.61 SApM
70.0% Str. Def.
2.82 TD Avg
42.0% TD Acc.
83.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Pedro Munhoz
5.38 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
6.29 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.48 TD Avg
16.0% TD Acc.
82.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Dominick Cruz
Moneyline
Caesars +105
KO/TKO
DraftKings +750
Submission
FanDuel +2300
Decision
BetRivers +165
Pedro Munhoz
Moneyline
BetMGM -105
KO/TKO
DraftKings +380
Submission
FanDuel +2000
Decision
FanDuel +240
Dominick Cruz - Fight History
LOSS vs Marlon Vera
KO (head kick) R4 2:17 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz · Aug 13, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marlon Vera 3 61 of 156 39% 63 of 160 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Dominick Cruz 0 92 of 249 36% 100 of 259 2 of 7 28% 0 0 1:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marlon Vera 1 9 of 33 27% 11 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dominick Cruz 0 21 of 61 34% 29 of 71 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:49
2 Marlon Vera 0 19 of 52 36% 19 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Cruz 0 32 of 78 41% 32 of 78 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Marlon Vera 0 21 of 49 42% 21 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Dominick Cruz 0 28 of 80 35% 28 of 80 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:16
4 Marlon Vera 2 12 of 22 54% 12 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Dominick Cruz 0 11 of 30 36% 11 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marlon Vera 61 of 156 39% 35 of 121 13 of 21 13 of 14 54 of 146 5 of 6 2 of 4
Dominick Cruz 92 of 249 36% 54 of 193 16 of 32 22 of 24 89 of 245 1 of 2 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marlon Vera 9 of 33 27% 4 of 25 2 of 4 3 of 4 9 of 30 0 of 1 0 of 2
Dominick Cruz 21 of 61 34% 12 of 49 1 of 4 8 of 8 19 of 59 0 of 0 2 of 2
2 Marlon Vera 19 of 52 36% 9 of 40 6 of 8 4 of 4 18 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
Dominick Cruz 32 of 78 41% 17 of 55 7 of 14 8 of 9 31 of 77 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Marlon Vera 21 of 49 42% 14 of 39 3 of 6 4 of 4 17 of 45 4 of 4 0 of 0
Dominick Cruz 28 of 80 35% 21 of 68 2 of 6 5 of 6 28 of 79 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Marlon Vera 12 of 22 54% 8 of 17 2 of 3 2 of 2 10 of 20 0 of 0 2 of 2
Dominick Cruz 11 of 30 36% 4 of 21 6 of 8 1 of 1 11 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Marlon Vera vs. Dominick Cruz
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vera (-210), Cruz (+180)

Round 1
It’s main event time, with former champion Cruz looking to make one last run at the title in front of the home folks. In his way is Vera, who’s won three straight and has title aspirations of his own. Herb Dean will be the third man in the cage for the evening’s featured bout. Cruz comes out aggressive iwth a high kick followd by a combination. Cruz with a head kick followed by a straight right hand. Cruz kicks to the body as Vera remains calm. A hard low kick for Cruz finds the mark. Vera throws a front kick and Cruz catches it and throws him on the canvas. Vera is right back up. Vera counters a low kick with a left hand and drops Cruz. the former champ pops right back to his feet. Cruz pressures with a combination, then has a head kick blocked. Cruz is forcing the issue with combinations. Cruz feints a takedown and misses with an overhand. Vera misses a front kick and Cruz pressures with punches. Cruz lands a low kick. A front kick down the middle lands for Vera. Cruz again pushes forward with a combination followed by a head kick. Again, Cruz blitzes forward with punches. With less than a minute to go, Cruz executes a nicely-timed takedown. Cruz is in full guard, looking to create space for ground-and-pound. Vera threatens with a triangle and Cruz stands. The round ends with Cruz kicking at his opponent’s legs.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cruz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cruz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Cruz

Round 2
Vera opens with a high kick but Cruz blocks it. Cruz with another blitz of punches and he follows up with a low kick. Cruz with a low kick followed by a right hand. Cruz chips at the legs and then rushes forward with punches. Cruz stays busy with kicks and then counters as Vera moves in. Vera avoids another flurry of punches, but Cruz lands a nice right to the body. Cruz is mixing things up nicely, keeping Vera off balance. Cruz lands a leg kick, but Vera avoids the follow up combination. Another low kick lands for Cruz, but he can’t find the range on the ensuing flurry of punches. Cruz with a right to the body. He goes body-head and lands both. Vera finds the mark on a right hook. Cruz with a straight right, then a front kick down the middle and another right hand. Cruz shoots with 30 seconds, but Vera sprawls. Cruz lands a jab and Vera just misses a head kick before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cruz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cruz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Cruz

Round 3
Cruz kicks the leg and follows up with a punching combination. Another heavy leg kick draws a reaction from Vera. Cruz flurries and a counter from Vera backs him up. Cruz slips and lands a punch even while moving awkwardly. Vera moves forward and follows a double jab with a powerful right that drops Cruz. The ex champ is right back up, though. Cruz feints a takedown and eats a left hook for his efforts. Cruz’s movement may have slowed ever so slightly. Cruz shoots and Vera sprawls on it and tags Cruz with a left. Cruz lands a jab and moves forward with punches. Vera jabs in response. Cruz’s volume isn’t quite what it was in earlier rounds. He lands a left and Vera answers with a body kick. Vera stuffs a takedown against the fence and lands some elbows to the side of the head. Cruz gives up and they’re back at range. Vera lans a jab before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Vera

Round 4
Vera eludes Cruz’s punches and the stuffs a takedown. A right from Cruz makes Vera stumble back but it’s more of a slip than anything. Cruz with a right to the body. A stiff left jab catches Cruz coming forward and sits him down. Cruz is up in a hurry but it’s the third knockdown of the night for Vera. Once again, Cruz isn’t landing with the volume he did early.
Cruz darts in and then dips his head off to the side. Vera is waiting for it, and he catches Cruz with a perfectly-timed head kick on the chin. Cruz faceplants into the canvas as a result of the blow. Vera follows up with three mostly unnecessary ground shots before Dean dives in to save Cruz
, who looks like his nose is badly damaged. That’s four in a row for Vera, whose power was on display throughout the fight.

The Official Result
Marlon Vera def. Dominick Cruz via KO (Head Kick and Punches) R4 2:17
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 7, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

Angelo picks Dominick Cruz but is on the fence. He notes Cruz's movement and striking defense make him hard to hit, and he can win by mixing in takedowns. However, Vera has devastating power and an iron chin, and Cruz may not be able to avoid damage for five rounds. Angelo compares to the Frankie Edgar fight where Edgar outstruck Vera and got takedowns but still got knocked out. He might change his pick.

"i think dominic can pull this off but make sure you watch our tuesday night breakdown because i'm so on the fence with this pic i might change it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Big Brady picks Marlon Vera to win by late knockout, likely in the fourth round. He notes that Vera is a slow starter but becomes a savage in the championship rounds, as seen against Rob Font. Cruz is 37, with declining durability and speed, and was dropped in his last fight. Vera lands the harder shots and has knockdown power. Brady expects Vera to eventually land something big and finish Cruz.

fourth round knockout
"i like marlon vera here to win i'll say fourth round knockout for marlon vera to get it done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Cody agrees with Paul, picking Marlon Vera. He emphasizes Vera's durability and tenacity in five-round fights, noting he often loses the first round but builds momentum. Cody believes Vera's leg kicks will stifle Cruz's movement and that judges favor damage over volume. He also suggests live betting Vera after he loses the first round.

Live betting Vera after round one
"i'm basically on the same lines i mean i like marlon vera i've always said that this guy's built for five round fights"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Daniel Levi picks Marlon Vera, emphasizing that Vera is a slow starter but excels in championship rounds. He notes Vera's iron chin, finishing ability (most finishes in bantamweight history), and the importance of calf kicks to slow Cruz's movement. Levi believes Cruz will have early success but fade as the fight progresses, and Vera will either finish or win a clear decision. He also mentions that Vera's boxing has improved under Jason Parillo.

Parlayed Vera with Bruno Silva at +102 odds. Also mentioned that Vera's line was -205 when he bet it, now -240.
"I'm taking Marlon Vera man, I just think that down the stretch third fourth fifth round once that movement starts to slow down once these calf kicks start to accumulate that's when is gonna be the time to go out …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2022 (fight day)
Dominick Cruz

The host is emphatic about Cruz, citing his wrestling advantage and high fight IQ. He notes that Cruz has landed 55 takedowns at a 43% clip since his WEC days, while Vera is not known for takedown defense. He believes people are overlooking Cruz's grappling and that the fight won't be a 25-minute kickboxing match. He also mentions Cruz's movement and ability to roll with kicks, referencing the Pedro Munoz fight where Cruz survived heavy leg kicks. He is confident that at plus money, Cruz is the value play.

Decision only Cruz at +150 (2 units); also mentions betting Cruz moneyline at +180 (2 units) and +200 (1 unit).
"i got in two units at plus 180 at the start of the week expecting money to come in on one of the greatest bantamweights of all time but the flashy and vicious nature of marlin vera seems to be …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Paul picks Marlon Vera, noting that while Cruz may out-volume him early, Vera lands the more impactful strikes. He points out that Cruz has been knocked down in his last four fights and is getting older. Paul thinks Vera's leg kicks will slow Cruz's mobility, and he prefers to bet Vera live after round one or two rather than at the -230 moneyline.

Live betting Vera after round one or two
"i like vera to win i think the minus 230 is a little bit steep"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

The host picks Marlon Vera by fourth-round submission (d'arce choke). He expects Cruz to win the first two rounds but fade as Vera's leg kicks and pressure accumulate. He predicts Vera will hurt Cruz, sprawl on a takedown, and choke him out. He emphasizes Vera's size and reach advantages, and notes Cruz's injury history and lack of power compared to other Vera opponents.

fourth round submission (d'arce choke)
"i'm going to be going with marlon vera getting this one done by tko in the fourth round... i'm actually going to go dash choke"
WIN vs Pedro Munhoz
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dominick Cruz 1 74 of 170 43% 79 of 175 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Pedro Munhoz 0 103 of 274 37% 105 of 276 1 of 9 11% 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dominick Cruz 1 21 of 45 46% 26 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Pedro Munhoz 0 25 of 51 49% 25 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:03
2 Dominick Cruz 0 27 of 57 47% 27 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 35 of 113 30% 35 of 113 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Dominick Cruz 0 26 of 68 38% 26 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 43 of 110 39% 45 of 112 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dominick Cruz 74 of 170 43% 45 of 128 10 of 16 19 of 26 73 of 168 1 of 2 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 103 of 274 37% 79 of 240 13 of 23 11 of 11 100 of 270 2 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dominick Cruz 21 of 45 46% 14 of 33 2 of 5 5 of 7 20 of 44 1 of 1 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 25 of 51 49% 18 of 42 5 of 7 2 of 2 23 of 49 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Dominick Cruz 27 of 57 47% 12 of 39 5 of 5 10 of 13 27 of 56 0 of 1 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 35 of 113 30% 30 of 105 2 of 5 3 of 3 34 of 111 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Dominick Cruz 26 of 68 38% 19 of 56 3 of 6 4 of 6 26 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 43 of 110 39% 31 of 93 6 of 11 6 of 6 43 of 110 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Dec 8, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

Big Brady picks Dominick Cruz by decision, but with low confidence. He notes that Cruz has excellent striking defense (72%) and movement, and the bigger cage favors his footwork. Munoz is dangerous with leg kicks and submissions, but he absorbs a lot of strikes. Brady believes Cruz can stay on the outside and outpoint Munoz, but Munoz's power and grappling threat make this a close fight.

"i will pick him to win by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

Daniel Levi picks Dominick Cruz to win by decision, citing Munhoz's struggles against point fighters. He notes that Munhoz gets hit frequently (six times per minute) and has lost to fighters like John Dodson and Frankie Edgar who use movement. Levi believes Cruz's footwork and elusiveness will frustrate Munhoz, and the larger octagon at T-Mobile gives Cruz more room. He acknowledges Munhoz's power and calf kicks but thinks Cruz can neutralize them. Levi sees Cruz winning a clear decision.

"give me dominic cruz to upset pedro munoz here saturday night"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

The MMA Guru picks Dominick Cruz to win by decision (29-28). He believes Cruz's footwork and range management will be problematic for Munhoz, who struggles against fighters who stay on the outside. He notes the bigger cage favors Cruz and that Munhoz has faded in recent fights.

29-28 decision
"i'm gonna go with dominic cruz i think his footwork is going to be a problem for pedro munoz"
WIN vs Casey Kenney
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · Mar 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dominick Cruz 0 89 of 202 44% 115 of 229 2 of 9 22% 0 0 2:07
Casey Kenney 0 74 of 193 38% 74 of 193 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dominick Cruz 0 26 of 56 46% 26 of 56 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Casey Kenney 0 23 of 63 36% 23 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
2 Dominick Cruz 0 36 of 82 43% 36 of 82 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Casey Kenney 0 33 of 73 45% 33 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
3 Dominick Cruz 0 27 of 64 42% 53 of 91 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:07
Casey Kenney 0 18 of 57 31% 18 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dominick Cruz 89 of 202 44% 51 of 151 24 of 35 14 of 16 85 of 197 4 of 4 0 of 1
Casey Kenney 74 of 193 38% 41 of 148 10 of 19 23 of 26 72 of 191 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dominick Cruz 26 of 56 46% 10 of 29 7 of 16 9 of 11 26 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Casey Kenney 23 of 63 36% 9 of 46 6 of 7 8 of 10 22 of 62 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Dominick Cruz 36 of 82 43% 24 of 70 8 of 8 4 of 4 36 of 82 0 of 0 0 of 0
Casey Kenney 33 of 73 45% 21 of 55 1 of 6 11 of 12 33 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Dominick Cruz 27 of 64 42% 17 of 52 9 of 11 1 of 1 23 of 59 4 of 4 0 of 1
Casey Kenney 18 of 57 31% 11 of 47 3 of 6 4 of 4 17 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

Big Brady picks Dominick Cruz as an underdog, citing Cruz's wrestling advantage and Kenney's 56% takedown defense. He notes Cruz has not won since 2016 but faced elite competition, while Kenney has been taken down frequently. He predicts a decision win but admits he doesn't feel great about it.

"i'm gonna side with the dog of dominick cruz here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Mar 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Casey Kenney

Daniel leans with Casey Kenney, citing Kenney's leg kicks from southpaw to slow Cruz's movement and his wrestling to keep the fight standing. He acknowledges Cruz's in-fight adjustments but believes Kenney's youth and style will edge a decision.

"i'm slightly leaning with casey kenny though man my gut just tells me that he... stylistically speaking his wrestling is good enough to keep it standing and he's got the kicks to slow down that movement of dominic cruz"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

Cruz's footwork and experience could trouble Kenney, who may struggle to land his body kicks. The host notes Cruz's durability and wrestling background, but is not confident enough to bet. He predicts Cruz wins by decision.

"i got dominique cruzier to win this fight for your decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

The MMA Guru picks Dominick Cruz as an underdog. He argues Cruz had a full camp and hand-picked Kenney, and that people judge him unfairly based on the short-notice Cejudo fight. He believes Cruz's footwork, size, and experience will lead to a 30-27 unanimous decision, and that Cruz can even get takedowns.

"i'm going with dominick cruz man i am over casey kenny this is another underdog that i'm picking on the card"
LOSS vs Henry Cejudo
TKO (knee and punches) R2 4:58 · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · May 09, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Henry Cejudo 1 53 of 83 63% 56 of 86 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:14
Dominick Cruz 0 33 of 81 40% 33 of 81 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Henry Cejudo 0 19 of 29 65% 21 of 31 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:08
Dominick Cruz 0 14 of 29 48% 14 of 29 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Henry Cejudo 1 34 of 54 62% 35 of 55 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:06
Dominick Cruz 0 19 of 52 36% 19 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Henry Cejudo 53 of 83 63% 24 of 50 6 of 8 23 of 25 44 of 70 0 of 2 9 of 11
Dominick Cruz 33 of 81 40% 15 of 58 8 of 11 10 of 12 31 of 78 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Henry Cejudo 19 of 29 65% 3 of 10 2 of 3 14 of 16 18 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1
Dominick Cruz 14 of 29 48% 4 of 16 6 of 7 4 of 6 14 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Henry Cejudo 34 of 54 62% 21 of 40 4 of 5 9 of 9 26 of 42 0 of 2 8 of 10
Dominick Cruz 19 of 52 36% 11 of 42 2 of 4 6 of 6 17 of 49 2 of 3 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

Big Brady picks Dominick Cruz as an underdog, citing his movement, speed, volume, and takedown defense. He believes Cruz can outpoint Cejudo if he avoids Cejudo's power and the fight stays on the feet. He sees value in Cruz at plus 185 and plans to bet it, predicting a close decision win.

Cruz by decision; Cruz plus 185; will bet that
"I'm going to be taking Dominic Cruz here. ... I think he's going to be the more active fighter as long as he avoids that huge right hand from Cejudo."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Henry Cejudo

Daniel Levi is extremely confident in Henry Cejudo, calling him an all-time great and dismissing Cruz's chances. He highlights Cejudo's wins over DJ, TJ, and Moraes, and his championship adjustments. Levi believes Cruz is in denial, hasn't evolved, and will be finished within two rounds, noting that Cejudo will pounce if he drops Cruz, unlike Cody Garbrandt.

finishes Cruz within two rounds
"Henry cejudo will put down many crews down within two rounds and he's gonna be the first guy to stop him with strikes"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 6, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

Matt picks Cruz as an underdog, citing his footwork, height advantage, and ability to frustrate Cejudo. He questions Cejudo's striking entries and recovery from shoulder surgery, and believes Cruz can win a decision. He sees value at plus money but is not betting due to other viable dogs on the card.

Dominick Cruz by decision
"I'm picking Dominick Cruz to win by a decision the bet would be Dominick Cruz if he can get him at plus 200"
LOSS vs Cody Garbrandt
Decision (unanimous) (48–46, 48–47, 48–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · Dec 30, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cody Garbrandt 0 88 of 291 30% 95 of 298 0 of 7 0% 0 0 0:01
Dominick Cruz 2 68 of 195 34% 71 of 198 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cody Garbrandt 0 20 of 50 40% 20 of 50 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Dominick Cruz 0 12 of 38 31% 12 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:09
2 Cody Garbrandt 0 19 of 60 31% 19 of 60 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Dominick Cruz 0 16 of 45 35% 16 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Cody Garbrandt 0 20 of 70 28% 20 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Dominick Cruz 0 17 of 46 36% 17 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
4 Cody Garbrandt 0 17 of 54 31% 17 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Cruz 2 15 of 47 31% 16 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
5 Cody Garbrandt 0 12 of 57 21% 19 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Dominick Cruz 0 8 of 19 42% 10 of 21 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cody Garbrandt 88 of 291 30% 58 of 250 9 of 14 21 of 27 88 of 291 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Cruz 68 of 195 34% 47 of 164 11 of 17 10 of 14 66 of 190 2 of 4 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cody Garbrandt 20 of 50 40% 9 of 37 4 of 4 7 of 9 20 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Cruz 12 of 38 31% 5 of 30 3 of 4 4 of 4 11 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Cody Garbrandt 19 of 60 31% 11 of 47 2 of 6 6 of 7 19 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Cruz 16 of 45 35% 9 of 33 6 of 10 1 of 2 16 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Cody Garbrandt 20 of 70 28% 16 of 65 1 of 1 3 of 4 20 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Cruz 17 of 46 36% 16 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 2 16 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Cody Garbrandt 17 of 54 31% 15 of 50 1 of 1 1 of 3 17 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Cruz 15 of 47 31% 11 of 41 0 of 1 4 of 5 15 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 1
5 Cody Garbrandt 12 of 57 21% 7 of 51 1 of 2 4 of 4 12 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Cruz 8 of 19 42% 6 of 17 1 of 1 1 of 1 8 of 17 0 of 2 0 of 0
WIN vs Urijah Faber
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · Jun 04, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dominick Cruz 1 87 of 261 33% 99 of 275 3 of 7 42% 0 1 3:24
Urijah Faber 0 34 of 159 21% 49 of 174 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dominick Cruz 0 10 of 24 41% 19 of 34 1 of 3 33% 0 1 1:53
Urijah Faber 0 4 of 13 30% 15 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:10
2 Dominick Cruz 1 21 of 58 36% 23 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Urijah Faber 0 6 of 29 20% 6 of 29 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Dominick Cruz 0 21 of 65 32% 21 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Urijah Faber 0 10 of 40 25% 10 of 40 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Dominick Cruz 0 18 of 57 31% 18 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Urijah Faber 0 7 of 44 15% 7 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
5 Dominick Cruz 0 17 of 57 29% 18 of 59 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:19
Urijah Faber 0 7 of 33 21% 11 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dominick Cruz 87 of 261 33% 62 of 223 8 of 19 17 of 19 77 of 243 6 of 10 4 of 8
Urijah Faber 34 of 159 21% 26 of 142 6 of 15 2 of 2 25 of 147 6 of 9 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dominick Cruz 10 of 24 41% 5 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 3 8 of 22 2 of 2 0 of 0
Urijah Faber 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Dominick Cruz 21 of 58 36% 13 of 47 2 of 4 6 of 7 19 of 54 0 of 0 2 of 4
Urijah Faber 6 of 29 20% 5 of 26 0 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 27 1 of 1 1 of 1
3 Dominick Cruz 21 of 65 32% 16 of 55 1 of 5 4 of 5 19 of 61 2 of 4 0 of 0
Urijah Faber 10 of 40 25% 6 of 34 4 of 6 0 of 0 8 of 37 2 of 3 0 of 0
4 Dominick Cruz 18 of 57 31% 14 of 51 2 of 4 2 of 2 16 of 51 0 of 2 2 of 4
Urijah Faber 7 of 44 15% 5 of 40 1 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Dominick Cruz 17 of 57 29% 14 of 51 1 of 4 2 of 2 15 of 55 2 of 2 0 of 0
Urijah Faber 7 of 33 21% 6 of 29 1 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 29 0 of 2 2 of 2
Decision (split) (48–47, 46–49, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs. Cruz · Jan 17, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dominick Cruz 0 109 of 408 26% 130 of 430 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:11
T.J. Dillashaw 0 112 of 302 37% 122 of 312 4 of 11 36% 0 0 0:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dominick Cruz 0 19 of 87 21% 26 of 94 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:12
T.J. Dillashaw 0 21 of 62 33% 21 of 62 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:07
2 Dominick Cruz 0 16 of 79 20% 17 of 80 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
T.J. Dillashaw 0 17 of 52 32% 18 of 53 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:10
3 Dominick Cruz 0 19 of 77 24% 19 of 77 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
T.J. Dillashaw 0 19 of 54 35% 19 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:13
4 Dominick Cruz 0 22 of 70 31% 35 of 84 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:56
T.J. Dillashaw 0 25 of 58 43% 34 of 67 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
5 Dominick Cruz 0 33 of 95 34% 33 of 95 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
T.J. Dillashaw 0 30 of 76 39% 30 of 76 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dominick Cruz 109 of 408 26% 64 of 343 22 of 39 23 of 26 102 of 394 6 of 13 1 of 1
T.J. Dillashaw 112 of 302 37% 97 of 282 9 of 14 6 of 6 107 of 294 5 of 6 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dominick Cruz 19 of 87 21% 9 of 73 7 of 11 3 of 3 19 of 83 0 of 4 0 of 0
T.J. Dillashaw 21 of 62 33% 17 of 56 2 of 4 2 of 2 19 of 59 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Dominick Cruz 16 of 79 20% 11 of 73 1 of 1 4 of 5 16 of 79 0 of 0 0 of 0
T.J. Dillashaw 17 of 52 32% 14 of 49 2 of 2 1 of 1 16 of 50 1 of 1 0 of 1
3 Dominick Cruz 19 of 77 24% 9 of 65 5 of 7 5 of 5 18 of 76 1 of 1 0 of 0
T.J. Dillashaw 19 of 54 35% 17 of 52 2 of 2 0 of 0 18 of 52 1 of 1 0 of 1
4 Dominick Cruz 22 of 70 31% 15 of 58 2 of 7 5 of 5 17 of 63 4 of 6 1 of 1
T.J. Dillashaw 25 of 58 43% 21 of 52 1 of 3 3 of 3 24 of 57 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Dominick Cruz 33 of 95 34% 20 of 74 7 of 13 6 of 8 32 of 93 1 of 2 0 of 0
T.J. Dillashaw 30 of 76 39% 28 of 73 2 of 3 0 of 0 30 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
KO (punches) R1 1:01 · UFC 178: Johnson vs. Cariaso · Sep 27, 2014
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dominick Cruz 0 26 of 35 74% 26 of 35 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:23
Takeya Mizugaki 0 2 of 10 20% 3 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dominick Cruz 0 26 of 35 74% 26 of 35 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:23
Takeya Mizugaki 0 2 of 10 20% 3 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dominick Cruz 26 of 35 74% 26 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 22 of 26
Takeya Mizugaki 2 of 10 20% 2 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dominick Cruz 26 of 35 74% 26 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 22 of 26
Takeya Mizugaki 2 of 10 20% 2 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz - Fight History
LOSS vs Aiemann Zahabi
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · Nov 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aiemann Zahabi 0 109 of 206 52% 110 of 208 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 95 of 327 29% 95 of 327 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aiemann Zahabi 0 30 of 51 58% 30 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 26 of 72 36% 26 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Aiemann Zahabi 0 41 of 90 45% 42 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 22 of 109 20% 22 of 109 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:02
3 Aiemann Zahabi 0 38 of 65 58% 38 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 47 of 146 32% 47 of 146 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aiemann Zahabi 109 of 206 52% 98 of 188 11 of 17 0 of 1 109 of 204 0 of 2 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 95 of 327 29% 82 of 304 7 of 14 6 of 9 94 of 324 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aiemann Zahabi 30 of 51 58% 24 of 43 6 of 8 0 of 0 30 of 50 0 of 1 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 26 of 72 36% 23 of 65 2 of 4 1 of 3 25 of 71 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Aiemann Zahabi 41 of 90 45% 37 of 81 4 of 8 0 of 1 41 of 89 0 of 1 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 22 of 109 20% 16 of 100 3 of 6 3 of 3 22 of 107 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Aiemann Zahabi 38 of 65 58% 37 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 0 38 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 47 of 146 32% 43 of 139 2 of 4 2 of 3 47 of 146 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Pedro Munhoz vs. Aiemann Zahabi
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zahabi (-115), Munhoz (-105)

Round 1
Posting one win in each of the last four years, Tristar Gym’s Zahabi (11-2, 5-2 UFC) has slowly but surely figured things out and climbed the bantamweight ladder. He earns a top-15 adversary in Munhoz (20-9, 2 NC; 10-9, 2 NC UFC), who on the wrong end of his 30s plans on showing there are still levels to this game. Referee Jerin Valel will officiate the preliminary headliner, one that commences as the sportsmen clap hands. Munhoz awkwardly shifts his way forward, throwing Zahabi off with his unusual hopping non-rhythm. Zahabi cannot get a time on him, and he resorts to backing off and lifting his leg up preemptively expecting leg kicks to fly. No strike is thrown for the first 50 seconds until Munhoz says hello with a guard-piercing jab. Munhoz walks Zahabi down and jabs him in the face again, and his front kick does the same to the body. Zahabi lumbers forward with two looping hooks, and a third bounces off the guard. Zahabi pounds the body with a kick, and Munhoz jabs him back to the fence. Zahabi’s big swings are parried or met with jabs, as Munhoz throws straight strikes while keeping his guard up. Zahabi whips another kick to the liver, and he scoops a left hand over the top. Munhoz stays right in Zahabi’s face, reddening him with jabs and slipping counters. Zahabi gets hold of a right hook that Munhoz cannot dodge, but it does not irritate the Brazilian in the slightest. Munhoz sneaks a high kick up, and when he bends over to evade the counters, he ducks into a knee. Zahabi stabs his toes to the liver, and Munhoz’ jab-heavy approach does not falter. Munhoz follows a jab with a left hook, and he swats away a lunging Zahabi and his combo. Zahabi looks for another knee as Munhoz bends, but he does not set it up and instead tags Munhoz in the face with a pair of flush punches. Munhoz jabs and lands a right, and Zahabi works the body and head in response. Zahabi scores a left hook on an advancing Munhoz, and Munhoz throws a low kick and stuffs a takedown shot. Munhoz jabs and sets up a straight right hand and a sharp kick to the ribs. Zahabi keeps his guard up to defend an elbow, and he evades a looping right hand by a matter of inches. Munhoz jabs his way into range, and he is backed off by a pair of jabs from the Canadian. Zahabi gets a high kick up, and they trade hands until the time hits 5:00.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz

Round 2
Munhoz offers a glove touch that is accepted, and he follows it with a few jabs. Munhoz uses the jab to smack Zahabi in the face with a right hand, and Zahabi fires back with a head kick followed by a few punches. Munhoz walks into a knee as he is pressing the action fearlessly, and he does not let Zahabi land without firing back relentlessly. Munhoz opens up with five punches that largely bounce off the guard, and Zahabi works the body with a kick. Zahabi slings an elbow as Munhoz advances, and Munhoz’ jabs are now more frequently being followed with power punches. Munhoz eats a right hand and tries to give one back, and Zahab kicks him in the side again. Munhoz dips and strikes, and he absorbs an uppercut without concern. Munhoz scores a solid right hand that sends Zahabi staggering to the right for a second, but the Canadian steels himself and strikes Munhoz repeatedly with hard jabs. Munhoz is right there in his grill hitting him back, and these two are unloading on one another. Zahabi times a break with a heavy body kick, and the punch salvos of three or more fly from both sides. Zahabi eats a right hand so he can sit down on a clean right counter, and Munhoz smiles and walks him down to slug him back. Munhoz ducks to shoot for a takedown, swelling growing under his left eye, and he cannot ground the Tristar-trained competitor. Munhoz lands a low kick and is jabbed back, but he opens up with right hand into a takedown. Zahabi smoothly sprawls and fights behind his jab, dealing well with Munhoz’ constant pressure. Munhoz slams another leg kick home, opening up a few punches up top. Zahabi strafes to the side when Munhoz swarms him, and he jabs twice and takes a thudding right hand on the temple. Zahabi lands a left and a hooking right, and he stops a double-leg entry without issue and knees “The Young Punisher” in the gut. Zahabi sets up a few punches after the knee, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi

Round 3
Munhoz comes out firing in the last round, with both rounds somewhat close and potentially everything up for grabs in the last five-minute stanza. Munhoz plods forward throwing big hands, and Zahabi’s defense protects from most of it. Munhoz jabs to the body with a foot and up high with a fist, and he parries a counter to put two fists on the dome of his foe. Munhoz rolls with a punch, walks into a right hand and responds with a pair of punches. Zahabi gets a knee up the middle, and Munhoz sends him wobbling back with a couple heavy blows. The fighters continue to trade without fear, and Munhoz has the volume advantage but gets a cut opened up on the right side of his right eye. Zahabi’s jabs target that spot with impunity, and Munhoz completely ignores it to load up on volume punches. Zahabi’s jab is money, forcing Munhoz to wipe his eye. Zahabi shoots for a takedown, and Munhoz stuffs it and splits the guard with a trio of strikes. Zahabi dips to score a right and snaps the head back with a jab, but “The Young Punisher” is right in front of him putting hands on him. They jab at the same time, and Munhoz has three fists flying immediately after launching it. Zahabi’s guard stops the Brazilian from most of his strike getting through, and he stops a takedown with ease. Munhoz charges recklessly with lunging punches, and the counters from Zahabi further chew up Munhoz’ face. Munhoz gets caught with a right hand and hits his seat, and he jumps back up to put hands on jaw. Munhoz scores two right hands over the top, and he motions for Zahabi to swang and bang with him. There is a failed takedown as they trade leather, and Valel gets between them as time expires but they just want to hug it out.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Zahabi)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Zahabi)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Zahabi)

The Official Result
Aiemann Zahabi def. Pedro Munhoz via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 27, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

Angelo picks Aiemann Zahabi due to high fight IQ and a well-trained corner (brother Firas). He notes Pedro Munhoz is a volume striker with dangerous BJJ but negative striking differential. He thinks Zahabi's point-fighting style could work, but if he just sits on right hands, Munhoz will touch him up. He says over 2.5 rounds is probably safe but likely won't bet this fight.

over 2.5 rounds is probably safe
"aan is going to be the pick because of the high fight IQ because of the the well-trained corner"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Big Brady picks Pedro Munhoz to win by decision. He criticizes Zahabi's low output (3.43 significant strikes per minute) and boring style, while Munhoz is more active (5.32 per minute) and has fought tougher competition. Brady likes Munhoz's leg kicks, durability, and takedown defense. He notes that Zahabi does nothing in the cage and that Munhoz's experience against top fighters gives him the edge.

"ped mun is by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Cody picks Pedro Munhoz, citing his durability and higher level of competition. He notes that Munhoz has fought top bantamweights and has a BJJ black belt, though he rarely uses it. He believes Munhoz's aggression and pressure could overwhelm Zahabi, but acknowledges the fight is close and could go either way. He is wary of hometown judging but sides with the Brazilian.

"I'll go with P J Munoz who historically just has like decent you know a very very very good durability."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Daniel Vreeland picks Pedro Munhoz, despite acknowledging his decline from a top-five ranking. He believes Munhoz's higher output, calf kicks, and durability (never knocked down) will be too much for Aiemann Zahabi. Vreeland notes that Zahabi is 36 and not a young prospect, and that Munhoz's experience and pace should earn him a close decision, though he admits a Canadian bias could affect judging.

"go Pedro Munoz here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

Zahabi is on a Cinderella run with upset victories in his last four wins. He will out-strike and out-volume Munhoz en route to a decision victory.

"Look for him to go out there and pick up his biggest Victory this weekend as he out strikes and out volumes Munoz on route to a decision Victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

Paul picks Aiemann Zahabi, arguing that Munhoz is older (38) and has slowed down, while Zahabi is fresher with less mileage. He notes Zahabi's reach advantage and precise striking, and believes he can keep Munhoz at range with his jab. He also mentions Zahabi's four-fight winning streak and momentum, and that Munhoz's aggressive style plays into Zahabi's counter-striking game.

"I'll take a a hobby cuz the lines pretty well even."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

The Guru picks Aiemann Zahabi over Pedro Munhoz, believing Munhoz is declining. He notes Zahabi's movement and strategy from the Firas Zahabi camp, and expects Zahabi to pick apart Munhoz's dipping, hook-swinging style. He predicts a close decision, possibly 29-28.

close decision
"I'm GNA go with amen zahabi I don't think he puts away Pedro manoz but I think he can figure out that style of mun where he just comes in all Twitchy with his hands"
LOSS vs Kyler Phillips
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kyler Phillips 0 52 of 140 37% 52 of 140 1 of 8 12% 0 0 0:24
Pedro Munhoz 0 114 of 275 41% 115 of 276 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kyler Phillips 0 19 of 54 35% 19 of 54 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:24
Pedro Munhoz 0 55 of 120 45% 56 of 121 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
2 Kyler Phillips 0 20 of 42 47% 20 of 42 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 32 of 75 42% 32 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Kyler Phillips 0 13 of 44 29% 13 of 44 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 27 of 80 33% 27 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kyler Phillips 52 of 140 37% 23 of 99 17 of 24 12 of 17 48 of 134 3 of 5 1 of 1
Pedro Munhoz 114 of 275 41% 74 of 224 17 of 24 23 of 27 111 of 269 2 of 5 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kyler Phillips 19 of 54 35% 11 of 44 5 of 5 3 of 5 17 of 50 1 of 3 1 of 1
Pedro Munhoz 55 of 120 45% 41 of 104 6 of 8 8 of 8 52 of 114 2 of 5 1 of 1
2 Kyler Phillips 20 of 42 47% 7 of 22 7 of 12 6 of 8 20 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 32 of 75 42% 16 of 56 8 of 9 8 of 10 32 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Kyler Phillips 13 of 44 29% 5 of 33 5 of 7 3 of 4 11 of 42 2 of 2 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 27 of 80 33% 17 of 64 3 of 7 7 of 9 27 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Pedro Munhoz vs. Kyler Phillips
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Phillips (-238), Munhoz (+195)

Round 1
In the talent-rich no-nonsense bantamweight division, speed sells, and both Munhoz (20-8, 2 NC; 10-8, 2 NC UFC) and Phillips (11-2, 5-1 UFC) are buying. Nine years the elder, Munhoz has served as the more active man of the two over the last few years. Referee Keith Peterson is ready to keep up with these two talented competitors, whether they need 15 seconds or 15 minutes to get things done. The fighters touch ‘em up to begin, and Munhoz moves forward, only to dodge a low kick and a pair of jabs. Phillips reaches his foe with a second leg kick, and Munhoz leaps forward to grab the leg and take the fight down. Phillips spins with a wheel kick that draws audible gasps but does not connect, and he chains a few punches into it to keep Munhoz from crowding him. “The Young Punisher” gets inside to land a right hand, and Phillips scores back with his own offense. Munhoz intercepts a striking Phillips to tackle him to the mat. Munhoz leaps into the guard, but Phillips kicks him off and pushes off with a finger when getting to his feet. Peterson sees this and allows Munhoz to recover, and Munhoz only takes a few seconds before he is ready to go. The two bantamweights jab at one another, and Phillips whips a head kick after. Both men throw leg kicks, and Munhoz crowds him and lands punches that force Phillips to turn away and escape on the edge of the cage. Munhoz pushes out a front kick, and Phillips times a right hand over the top. The two measure one another in single strikes, and Phillips kicks low and buzzes the hair with a kick. Phillips keeps his long jab outstretched, and he leans back when Munhoz wings inaccurate but powerful punches at him. Phillips dodges and spins with a back kick, and he drives a knee on the chin that stings Munhoz. Phillips unloads with a barrage of punches and kicks, and he further tags Munhoz in his long series of strikes. Munhoz gathers himself and throws back, and he knees him in the face. Phillips jabs out his finger while rattling off a long combo, and he jams it into Munhoz’ eye. Phillips also cuts Munhoz, and it was a punch that cause it and not the poke. When they get back to it, Munhoz wipes his eye and engages in a brawl. Phillips sticks and moves, landing flush and getting shoved back with a front kick. Phillips nods at him and eats a left hook that cuts him on the cheek. The fast and furious round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Phillips

Round 2
The cut on the eyelid of Munhoz is not sealed between rounds, and blood leaks from it to start off the round. Phillips sprints forward to attack, and Munhoz is right there to greet him with strikes including a pair of low kicks. Phillips has a one-two bounce off the guard, and he comes up short with a hook kick. Munhoz checks a low kick, and he dips down to rip a left to the body. Phillips kicks him back in the leg, and Munhoz is right there to chop him back. They both crack one another with left hooks, and Munhoz slips and scores a right. Phillips connects with a solid right hand, and Munhoz’ chin is made of sterner stuff. Phillips grazes the hair with a fast head kick, and he swats away a jabbing front kick. Phillips rifles off several jabs while Munhoz comes at him, and he evades the heavier of the strikes coming his way. They both go low with a kick, and Munhoz has his guard raised to block a standing elbow but it cannot defend against a body kick after it. Munhoz keeps his head movement on full display as he dodges and ducks vicious strikes like a spinning back fist, and he remains right close to Phillips. Phillips kicks him in the mouth, and Munhoz takes it cleanly and wades forward to throw back. Munhoz shoulder-rolls when a right hand comes down the pipe, and he parries a left hook. The two trade leg kicks, and Phillips hops forward and stomps the side with a kick. Phillips digs a left to the body and right to the head, and Munhoz does not bat an eye. Phillips chains punches together into a low kick, and he slides back before Munhoz can reach him. Munhoz scores a single body kick, but it is one-and-done while Phillips is largely more active. Phillips gets off a right and a left, and he leapfrogs Munhoz when Munhoz ducks down. Phillips spins with a wheel kick that tags Munhoz, and he stops a potential takedown from coming at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Phillips

Round 3
Munhoz sprints out of his corner ready to engage, and he tosses out a glove touch before darting in to shoot for a takedown. Phillips staves it off and pops out several jabs, keeping him away from the right hand of the Brazilian. They both smack one another with leg kicks, and then aim body shots. Phillips lands a right to the body and a spinning back kick to the other side. Munhoz jabs his way in and misses with an overhand right, and Phillips jabs and paws at the damaged eye of his opponent. Phillips shimmies as he dodges, and he flicks out a front kick that lands on the chin. The two clinch up, but nothing comes of it as Phillips is out of range when he tries to reach a left hand on the break. Phillips strafes to the side and lands a right hand up top along with a body kick. Munhoz scores a low kick, but Phillips is right in his face with punches and his own leg kick. Munhoz snaps the head back with a jab, and he absorbs a clean leg kick in response. Phillips looks to counter a leg kick with a right hand over the top, and he bounces and moves to flick out jabs. Munhoz times a right hand while Phillips is bouncing around, and Phillips has to reset. Phillips slaps a leg kick in the outer lead leg, and he steps in with a left hook and whips a head kick up on the other side. Munhoz does not bat an eye, and he spins with a back kick aimed at Phillips’ head but cannot reach him. Munhoz prods out a front kick, only to get driven back by punches and a head kick. Phillips kicks low to stop Munhoz from getting to him. It temporarily disrupts Munhoz’ constant forward movement, but Munhoz is quick to get back to racing forward. Phillips has a head kick bounce off the guard, and he clips Munhoz with an overhand right. “The Matrix” styles on his opponent with punches that leads to a spinning kick, and the fight ends as Phillips attempts and lands a back flip to celebrate.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Phillips (30-27 Phillips)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Phillips (30-27 Phillips)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Phillips (30-27 Phillips)

The Official Result
Kyler Phillips def. Pedro Munhoz via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Kyler Phillips

Angelo leans Kyler Phillips due to his youth, cardio, and well-rounded game, but acknowledges Pedro Munhoz is the better fighter on paper. He notes Munhoz is 37 and has only one win in five fights, while Phillips is younger and has momentum. He won't bet because the odds on Phillips are too wide for an untested fighter.

"I gotta lean Kyler Phillips here no bets though I don't trust Kyler I think these odds are too far gone as well he's too big of a favorite considering this is his toughest test of his career"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kyler Phillips

Big Brady picks Kyler Phillips to win by decision. He likes Phillips' movement, volume, and sneaky power, and notes that Munhoz has been outlanded in recent fights. He expects Phillips to win the first two rounds and possibly drop the third, winning 29-28. He also mentions a PrizePicks play on Phillips under 2.5 takedowns.

win by decision; PrizePicks: Kyler Phillips under 2.5 takedowns
"give me Phillips give me Phillips to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kyler Phillips

Cody acknowledges Phillips' speed and athleticism but worries about his cardio and durability. He thinks Phillips can win the first two rounds with movement and volume, but Munhoz's durability and pressure could lead to a late finish or decision for Munhoz.

"I'm still going to pre-fight bet Kyler Phillips but this is this is like apple pie [ __ ] potential one that you're going to watch and you're going to feel pretty bad about"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kyler Phillips

Daniel leans towards Phillips due to youth, speed, and explosiveness. He notes Phillips goes balls to the wall and may fatigue, but Munhoz has also slowed down in later rounds recently. Daniel is not interested at the price but picks Phillips to win.

"I'm going to lean a little bit towards Kyler just not interested at this price"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Kyler Phillips

Phillips has a speed, footwork, and technical striking advantage that should allow him to dance around at range and touch up Munhoz. He tends to fade in the third round due to cardio issues, but he should win the first two rounds clearly and survive the third. Munhoz is a tough veteran with power and forward pressure, but his short reach and tendency to get outpointed by technical strikers is a concern. Phillips should put on a similar performance to his win over Barcelos, using movement and output to win a decision.

"I think Phillips's movement uh his ability to kind of just see the kicks coming will allow him to either check the kicks or get out of the way and then just get back to his handywork of touching MOS …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kyler Phillips

Paul agrees with Cody's assessment, noting Phillips' reach and speed advantages. He thinks Phillips can win the first two rounds and hold on in the third, but acknowledges the risk of Munhoz's leg kicks and pressure.

"I'm going to side with you I'm going to say that he gets the first two rounds and then kind of holds on for deer life"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

The MMA Guru picks Pedro Munhoz, arguing that Kyler Phillips' flashy striking style relies on hurting opponents, but Munhoz has never been dropped or wobbled. He notes Munhoz's low kicks and durability, and that even Sean O'Malley couldn't do much to Munhoz. He predicts Munhoz will win a decision, possibly 29-28, or even a draw if Phillips wins early rounds.

decision
"I think monoz will get this one done by decision uh 29-28"
LOSS vs Marlon Vera
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marlon Vera 0 141 of 251 56% 141 of 251 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 113 of 246 45% 113 of 246 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marlon Vera 0 39 of 66 59% 39 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 38 of 71 53% 38 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Marlon Vera 0 49 of 84 58% 49 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 45 of 91 49% 45 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Marlon Vera 0 53 of 101 52% 53 of 101 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 30 of 84 35% 30 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marlon Vera 141 of 251 56% 109 of 212 9 of 14 23 of 25 138 of 246 3 of 4 0 of 1
Pedro Munhoz 113 of 246 45% 53 of 177 20 of 28 40 of 41 111 of 244 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marlon Vera 39 of 66 59% 27 of 51 3 of 5 9 of 10 38 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 1
Pedro Munhoz 38 of 71 53% 14 of 44 8 of 11 16 of 16 38 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Marlon Vera 49 of 84 58% 37 of 71 2 of 3 10 of 10 49 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 45 of 91 49% 23 of 64 7 of 11 15 of 16 45 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Marlon Vera 53 of 101 52% 45 of 90 4 of 6 4 of 5 51 of 98 2 of 3 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 30 of 84 35% 16 of 69 5 of 6 9 of 9 28 of 82 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Pedro Munhoz vs. Marlon Vera
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vera (-198), Munhoz (+164)

Round 1
The UFC made the best of a rough situation when Henry Cejudo withdrew from this matchup against Vera (20-8-1, 14-7 UFC). With about a month to prepare, Munhoz (20-7, 2 NC; 10-7, 2 NC UFC) is more than ready to rise to the occasion and battle it out tooth-and-nail for 15 hard minutes. Neither man has ever been finished, so referee Herb Dean could be in it for the long haul. These two action-packed bantamweights meet in the middle with a glove touch, and Vera immediately takes the center of the cage to lord over it. Munhoz strikes first with a body kick, and he chains a leg kick into it. Vera keeps his hands high but Munhoz gets a right hand in, and the two end up clashing shins at the same time. Vera catches a kick and knocks Munhoz down to the ground, and he nearly lands an illegal soccer kick but pulls back at the last second. Munhoz gets right back up, and he starts chasing Vera with looping punches. Munhoz mixes in leg kicks, and Vera pierces the guard with a sharp jab. Both fighters trade front kicks, and Munhoz chips away at him with strikes to the legs and body. Vera ignores a front kick to the midsection and blocks a right hand, and Munhoz comes at him with a head kick that slides off the raised guard. Vera pops out another jab, and he parries the strikes from Munhoz that come his way. Vera connects with a hefty leg kick, and he snaps the head back with a straight left hand. Vera’s jab intercepts “The Young Punisher” crashing the pocket, and he hops back to avoid a body shot. Munhoz shoots in from a distance for a takedown, and Vera stifles it and responds with a jab and a leg kick. Munhoz’ nose is already starting to redden up, and Vera releases a low kick and a one-two. Munhoz charges, and Vera counters him with a knee that rebounds off the forearm of his opponent. Vera strings together three punches that do not find their home, but a jab does when Munhoz chops at his lead heel. Vera lets go with his hands in a short exchange, and Munhoz connects with two thudding left hands over the top. Munhoz fires off a right hook, and Vera replies with a front kick that grazes past his cheek. Munhoz swarms with two punches before changing stances and swinging with one more. Vera lands a leg kick and continues damaging Munhoz’ nose with jabs, and he stops Munhoz from backing him off thanks to his jab. Vera digs a left to the body, and he keeps his jab flowing. Munhoz elects to mimic this with three straight jabs, and leg kicks come from both fighters. Vera checks a leg kick and darts away when Munhoz throws hands, and Vera resets with a front kick and a swatting left hook. The close round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz

Round 2
The bantamweights come together in the middle of the cage, with Munhoz pushing out an immediate front kick. Vera slips punches and counters, and Munhoz lands another front kick to the body. Vera misses a head kick by a few inches, and he buzzes the hair with a second kick. Munhoz looses a big right hand, and Vera rolls with it and counters with a jab. Vera goes up high with a kick, and Munhoz swings a left hook that grazes past the target. Vera jabs a few times and parries a front kick to the side, and he connects with a thumping leg kick. Munhoz spams front kick, and Vera stands him up with a left hook on the inside. Vera peppers the nose with another sharp jab, and Munhoz lashes back with a strong leg kick and a left hook. Vera tanks it and kicks back on the lead wheel, and he paws out three punches that bounce off the gloves. Munhoz misses with a two-punch string, and he lands on a second effort. The right hands land from Munhoz, and Vera evades a spinning kick with ease. Vera gets in a short left hook, and he walks through a few leg kicks and has punches blocked. Munhoz plants a right hand down the pipe, and he backs off as he eats a body shot and protects his mug from a head kick. Munhoz plows forward and connects with a left, and they get off jabs at the same time. Munhoz follows it with a left hook, and they decide to dish out leg kicks one after the other. Vera nails his foe with a right hand, and Munhoz shakes it off and rubs his nose. Munhoz lands two straight right hands that Vera takes flush without batting an eye, and they swing their fists but end up missing with their exchanges. Vera slides a punch to land a left, and Munhoz whips a right hand over the top. Vera checks a leg kick and snaps out a jab, and a left and a right knock him back a few steps. Vera looks to catch a low kick and counter with a right hand, and he works the body as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz

Round 3
They clap hands to get started with one final round, and they both swing leg kicks at the same time. Vera checks a kick and strikes with his jab, and Dean tells him to watch his fingers. Vera connects with a left to the body and a right to the head, and he clubs Munhoz with a right hand as Munhoz comes his way. Munhoz fires back when Vera lands on him, and he splits the guard with a right hand. The two hand-fight, and Vera tries to check a low kick. Vera stings Munhoz with a jab, and a second makes Munhoz blink it out. Vera goes with a left to the ribs and a right up top, and Munhoz considers taking the fight down as he is stunned. Vera continues to crush Munhoz’ nose with his jab, and Munhoz is fighting back but it is starting to get to him. Munhoz absorbs a flush one-two, and he swings for the fences only to get nailed with a left hook. Munhoz is there every step of the way, but his face is starting to show serious damage. Vera hammers a left to the body that bends Munhoz over, but Munhoz gathers himself and blitzes forward. Vera stands firm and fires out his piston-like jab, and Munhoz has no answer to it other than to try to get his own going as well. Vera checks a kick and puts three punches on the chin of his opponent, and Munhoz is tough but gets stung with two vicious lefts. Munhoz takes a flush jab and shakes his head only to crash forward, and even though he lands, Vera is hitting him much harder. Vera brings a high kick up top for good measure, and he jabs up Munhoz’ face. Vera blocks two punches and lands a right, and Munhoz slips the follow-up and kicks the body twice. Vera nods at him and wings a left hand, and Munhoz shoulder-rolls and counters. Vera plants his fist on the Brazilian’s chin three times in rapid succession, and he ignores a counter. Vera starts showboating, and he steps back as Munhoz spins with two unsuccessful kicks. Vera hoots, and he drops his hands and puts them behind his back. Before Munhoz can reach him, the razor-close matchup comes to a close. It could be anybody’s fight, and judges will have their hands full scoring the first two rounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vera (29-28 Munhoz)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Vera (29-28 Munhoz)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Vera (29-28 Munhoz)

The Official Result
Marlon Vera def. Pedro Munhoz via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Angelo picks Marlon Vera despite acknowledging red flags: Vera is overrated, has been outstruck in his last four fights, and lacks urgency. However, he believes Pedro Munhoz's orthodox striking style plays into Vera's strengths, as Vera excels against fighters who stand in front of him. He also notes Munhoz is on short notice. He has Vera in a parlay.

Parlay with Zhang Weili
"Cheeto Vera is the pick I have money on him I've got him in a nice little parlay... Pedro Munoz is going to come forward work that low leg kick and stand in front of Cheeto and cheeto's gonna blast …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Big Brady picks Pedro Munhoz as a slight underdog, expecting a split decision. He notes Vera is a slow starter who loses first rounds and has been outstruck in four of his last five fights. Munhoz has never been knocked out or knocked down, and Brady believes the fight will be close, favoring the dog.

win by decision
"I'll take uh the dog and Pedro Munoz to pull it off and I'll take Munoz to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Cody highlights Vera's notorious slow starts, often losing the first round, which is problematic in a three-round fight. Munhoz has a good chin and Jiu-Jitsu, and could capitalize if Vera starts slow. He suggests live betting Vera after the first round if he loses it, but officially picks Munhoz as a live underdog.

live bet Vera after round 1
"for me personally yeah I'm gonna have to take some underdogs here and there so yeah so the official pick will be Pedro Munoz"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Daniel Levi picks Marlon Vera, believing Vera will push the pace in the second and third rounds and win a decision. He notes that Vera struggles against longer fighters or those who put him on his back, but here Vera is the longer man. Levi thinks Vera will use front kicks and knees, and that Munoz slows down as fights progress. He also mentions that neither fighter has been finished, but both are hittable, so a finish is possible.

Vera by decision; possibility of first finish for either fighter
"I think Vera is going to push the pace second third rounds and get this decision"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Marlon Vera

Lucrative James picks Marlon Vera to win, possibly by finish, despite Munhoz never being finished in 28 fights. He notes Vera's reach and height advantages, and believes Munhoz's durability may be declining. He expects Vera to pull away in rounds 2 and 3.

"I think Vera is going to win the fight I think he could even finish"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Marlon Vera

Vera is the more diverse striker and should land damaging blows as the fight goes on. However, Munhoz is durable and can win early rounds with forward pressure. The over 2.5 rounds is the best bet as Vera likely wins rounds 2 and 3 by decision. The moneyline is not worth it due to Vera's slow starts.

over 2.5 rounds
"I still lean chitovera here but I think you know taking the over two and a half is probably the best way to go about it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

The MMA Guru picks Pedro Munhoz over Marlon Vera. He argues Vera relies on finishing opponents late, but Munhoz never gets wobbled, never slows down, and has fought the who's who of bantamweight. He notes Vera struggles in three-round fights and Munhoz's leg kicks and pressure will annoy Vera. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Munhoz.

decision 29-28
"I'm going with Pedro Munoz bad decision 29-28"
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen · Apr 15, 2023
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Gutierrez

Connor picks Gutierrez, agreeing that Munhoz has lost his edge since moving to American Top Team. He notes that Munhoz's old Kings MMA style of relentless pressure is gone, replaced by a more tentative approach. Connor believes Gutierrez's consistent output and target selection will outwork Munhoz, who has become too passive and reliant on a jab and footwork that don't suit his natural aggression.

"I think Gutierrez is way too consistent and again not picky about the targets that he accepts at that range."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Gutierrez

Zane picks Gutierrez, highlighting his improvement and confidence versus Munhoz's decline. He notes that Munhoz has lost his aggressive, four-limbed attack and become more technical but less effective. Zane believes Gutierrez's volume, kicking game, and ability to attack all targets will overwhelm Munhoz, who has poor defensive footwork and has been vulnerable to leg kicks historically.

Gutierrez opened -230, now -195; Munhoz opened +200, now +173. Zane does not mention betting.
"I kind of just think Gutierrez is going to be too much for him to handle."
LOSS vs Sean O'Malley
No Contest (accidental eye poke) R2 3:09 · UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · Jul 02, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Pedro Munhoz 0 26 of 41 63% 26 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean O'Malley 0 25 of 47 53% 25 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Pedro Munhoz 0 19 of 25 76% 19 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean O'Malley 0 15 of 26 57% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Pedro Munhoz 0 7 of 16 43% 7 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean O'Malley 0 10 of 21 47% 10 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Pedro Munhoz 26 of 41 63% 0 of 9 0 of 2 26 of 30 26 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean O'Malley 25 of 47 53% 14 of 30 8 of 14 3 of 3 25 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Pedro Munhoz 19 of 25 76% 0 of 3 0 of 0 19 of 22 19 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean O'Malley 15 of 26 57% 7 of 13 5 of 10 3 of 3 15 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Pedro Munhoz 7 of 16 43% 0 of 6 0 of 2 7 of 8 7 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean O'Malley 10 of 21 47% 7 of 17 3 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Pedro Munhoz vs. Sean O'Malley
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: O’Malley (-300), Munhoz (+250)

Round 1
Kicking off the main card is another fight that could have served as the main event of a Fight Night offering recently, as established veteran Munhoz (19-7, 1 NC; 9-7, 1 NC UFC) looks to shut down the “Sugar Show” of O’Malley (15-1, 7-1 UFC) at bantamweight. Feet and fists are sure to fly fervently, but not before referee Jason Herzog checks them in. The gloves are expectedly not touched given O’Malley’s chatter ahead of the fight, and they land leg kicks at the same time to start things off. O’Malley keeps a wide berth from afar, with a distance where even he cannot land with his significant reach advantage. They are cautious to engage, and O’Malley tosses out a few front kicks while Munhoz goes to the calf repeatedly. O’Malley loads up on an overhand right, and he checks a calf kick that zooms at him. Munhoz checks one in response, and he sweeps low with his rear leg. O’Malley pierces the guard with a jab, and Munhoz circles away and lands a solid leg kick as O’Malley switches stances. The American pokes out a few jabs but little else, and he leaps back as the low kick comes towards him. “Sugar Sean” spins with a back kick, and Munhoz is out of harm’s way in time. Munhoz hammers the leg multiples times, and O’Malley steps forward with a front kick and a straight right hand down the pipe. O’Malley slaps a front kick out, and it bangs into the cup. Herzog spots it immediately, and the crowd boos him despite that the foul lands cleanly. Munhoz takes less than a minute to get back to action, and O’Malley comes out throwing hands. Munhoz answers him with a barrage of leg kicks from both legs, and he appears fired up and walking O’Malley down. They continue to pepper the lead legs of one another with kicks, and Munhoz fires off a high kick that gets blocked in time. Munhoz bears down on him with a chopping kick, and they add up as O’Malley tries to push him back with jabs. The pink-haired fighter spin with a back kick to the midsection, and Munhoz answers him as he plants down with a thudding kick. Munhoz whiffs on a spin kick, and O’Malley mocks him with a pirouette as the crowd guffaws. The tentative round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley

Round 2
The second frame opens as Munhoz comes out running forward, and he switches stances every single time O’Malley does to mirror his stance and allow him to have effective leg kicks come out. Munhoz misses on a head kick, and a front kick as well as he pulls his leg back and lands awkwardly. O’Malley pokes out a few jabs to little effect, and Munhoz retreats and gets popped with a one-two. O’Malley spins with a wheel kick that just brushes past Munhoz’ hair, and one inch to the right could have spelled problems for the Brazilian. Munhoz kicks the midsection on his way in, and he swipes low with a kick. O’Malley absorbs a kick with an audible thud, and he loads up with a right hand that collides with the guard. O’Malley dings Munhoz with a straight right, and the Brazilian loads up on a low kick in response. Practically all of the strikes landed by “The Young Punisher” are leg kicks, and they are rarely more than single strikes. They continue to connect, and O’Malley, irritated from them, pops out a jab. Munhoz lands a punch, and O’Malley reaches out with his fingers outstretched to jab Munhoz in the eye. Munhoz turns away and tries to clear his vision. Herzog allows him to recover and calls in a doctor to give him more time, Munhoz seems to tell the doctor he cannot see out of his right eye. The doctor helps him wipe his eye, and Munhoz claims that all he sees is black from one eye. With that answer, Herzog and the physician properly call the fight off, as Munhoz cannot continue. This poke ruled an unintentional foul, it will go down as a no contest. This is an unfortunate ending to a competitive and intriguing bout, and hopefully the promotion can run it back in the near future.

The Official Result
Sean O’Malley vs. Pedro Munhoz is ruled a No Contest (Accidental Eye Poke) R2 3:09
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Angelo picks Sean O'Malley, citing his accuracy and athletic striking. He believes Munhoz's volume and forward pressure will work against him as O'Malley sticks and moves. He expresses frustration with the matchup, feeling Munhoz is being fed to a rising star, but still sees O'Malley winning a decision.

"I think sean o'malley gets this done i i just hate it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Big Brady is confident in Sean O'Malley, citing his size, speed, and striking advantage. He notes Munhoz is hittable and absorbs many strikes, but worries about O'Malley's leg kicks and durability. He predicts O'Malley wins by decision, as Munhoz has never been knocked out.

O'Malley by decision
"i like o'malley to win i do have my concerns though in terms of laying like minus 300 just about on this guy but um i think he should win this fight and win it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Cody acknowledges Munhoz's path to victory via leg kicks and pressure, but notes Munhoz has declined and lacks wrestling. He thinks O'Malley's reach and speed will be decisive, and that Munhoz hasn't landed a takedown since 2018. He picks O'Malley as the rightful favorite.

"I think he's the rightful favorite and if Munoz just had a shred of wrestling I'd be all over this plus 275 but I'm not gonna get there"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 30, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Daniel Levi is confident in Sean O'Malley, having bet 5 units to win 2 at -250. He believes O'Malley's height, reach, volume, and stance switching will be too much for Munhoz, who is there to be hit and may be on the decline. Levi dismisses the leg kick narrative, noting that O'Malley can mitigate it by fighting southpaw. He respects Munhoz's guillotine and calf kicks but thinks O'Malley's evolution and youth give him the edge.

Bet 5 units to win 2 at -250; got best of the line.
"i bet sean o'malley at -250 to win two units... i think it's going to be sean o'malley's night saturday"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 1, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Sean O'Malley

O'Malley is faster and more technical, but Munhoz has never been knocked out and has good leg kicks. O'Malley should win by decision, staying on the outside and avoiding leg kicks. The host is not confident in a finish and prefers the decision prop.

O'Malley by decision +150; over 2.5 rounds
"i was leaning the o'malley by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Paul agrees with Cody that O'Malley's reach advantage and volume will be key. He notes Munhoz's lack of wrestling makes it hard to back him at +275. He picks O'Malley to win.

"I think he's the rightful favorite"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley, citing his elusiveness, range advantage (7-inch reach), and ability to slow down pressure fighters. He believes Pedro Munhoz has declined and that O'Malley's front kicks and leg kicks will be key. He predicts O'Malley will pick Munhoz apart and win a decision, noting Munhoz's lack of offensive wrestling.

"i'm going to go sean o'malley"
LOSS vs Dominick Cruz
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dominick Cruz 1 74 of 170 43% 79 of 175 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Pedro Munhoz 0 103 of 274 37% 105 of 276 1 of 9 11% 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dominick Cruz 1 21 of 45 46% 26 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Pedro Munhoz 0 25 of 51 49% 25 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:03
2 Dominick Cruz 0 27 of 57 47% 27 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 35 of 113 30% 35 of 113 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Dominick Cruz 0 26 of 68 38% 26 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 43 of 110 39% 45 of 112 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dominick Cruz 74 of 170 43% 45 of 128 10 of 16 19 of 26 73 of 168 1 of 2 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 103 of 274 37% 79 of 240 13 of 23 11 of 11 100 of 270 2 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dominick Cruz 21 of 45 46% 14 of 33 2 of 5 5 of 7 20 of 44 1 of 1 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 25 of 51 49% 18 of 42 5 of 7 2 of 2 23 of 49 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Dominick Cruz 27 of 57 47% 12 of 39 5 of 5 10 of 13 27 of 56 0 of 1 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 35 of 113 30% 30 of 105 2 of 5 3 of 3 34 of 111 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Dominick Cruz 26 of 68 38% 19 of 56 3 of 6 4 of 6 26 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 43 of 110 39% 31 of 93 6 of 11 6 of 6 43 of 110 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Dec 8, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

Big Brady picks Dominick Cruz by decision, but with low confidence. He notes that Cruz has excellent striking defense (72%) and movement, and the bigger cage favors his footwork. Munoz is dangerous with leg kicks and submissions, but he absorbs a lot of strikes. Brady believes Cruz can stay on the outside and outpoint Munoz, but Munoz's power and grappling threat make this a close fight.

"i will pick him to win by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

Daniel Levi picks Dominick Cruz to win by decision, citing Munhoz's struggles against point fighters. He notes that Munhoz gets hit frequently (six times per minute) and has lost to fighters like John Dodson and Frankie Edgar who use movement. Levi believes Cruz's footwork and elusiveness will frustrate Munhoz, and the larger octagon at T-Mobile gives Cruz more room. He acknowledges Munhoz's power and calf kicks but thinks Cruz can neutralize them. Levi sees Cruz winning a clear decision.

"give me dominic cruz to upset pedro munoz here saturday night"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

The MMA Guru picks Dominick Cruz to win by decision (29-28). He believes Cruz's footwork and range management will be problematic for Munhoz, who struggles against fighters who stay on the outside. He notes the bigger cage favors Cruz and that Munhoz has faded in recent fights.

29-28 decision
"i'm gonna go with dominic cruz i think his footwork is going to be a problem for pedro munoz"
LOSS vs José Aldo
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Aug 07, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
José Aldo 0 114 of 223 51% 114 of 223 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 75 of 179 41% 75 of 179 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 José Aldo 0 25 of 60 41% 25 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 28 of 76 36% 28 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 José Aldo 0 42 of 95 44% 42 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 33 of 71 46% 33 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 José Aldo 0 47 of 68 69% 47 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 14 of 32 43% 14 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
José Aldo 114 of 223 51% 74 of 168 32 of 47 8 of 8 114 of 223 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 75 of 179 41% 35 of 131 3 of 6 37 of 42 71 of 175 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 José Aldo 25 of 60 41% 13 of 40 12 of 20 0 of 0 25 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 28 of 76 36% 11 of 54 2 of 4 15 of 18 27 of 75 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 José Aldo 42 of 95 44% 32 of 78 9 of 16 1 of 1 42 of 95 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 33 of 71 46% 16 of 51 1 of 2 16 of 18 32 of 70 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 José Aldo 47 of 68 69% 29 of 50 11 of 11 7 of 7 47 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 14 of 32 43% 8 of 26 0 of 0 6 of 6 12 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2021 (fight day)
Pedro Munhoz

Angelo picks Munhoz, arguing that Aldo is likely older than his listed age (34) and may be on the wrong side of 40. He sees Munhoz as a younger, high-volume fighter with leg kicks who can come forward and win. He acknowledges Aldo's counter-striking but believes Munhoz's constant movement and pressure will be key.

"I have Munoz over Aldo... Jose Aldo is not 34 years old, Jose Aldo is 40 or higher... Munoz is like a younger, not as good Aldo... coming forward, lots of volume, tons of leg kicks."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 3, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Big Brady sees this as a very close fight between Aldo's power and Munhoz's volume. He leans toward Munhoz's volume, noting Aldo's low output in recent fights. He thinks Munhoz's durability (never finished) will allow him to outwork Aldo and win a decision. He calls it one of the toughest fights to call on the card.

"I'm going to say that Munoz does win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Cody picks Munhoz, arguing that Aldo fades in later rounds and Munhoz has excellent cardio and durability. He notes Aldo's recent reliance on grappling against Vera won't work against Munhoz. Cody sees Munhoz winning by decision after dropping the first round, and likes the live betting opportunity.

Munhoz by decision, live betting after round 1
"i'm going to go with pedro moon is on this one i think jose aldo since dropping down his seemingly you know caught a second win his career is you know he's still a top contender he's just not a …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 6, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Daniel Levi slightly leans Pedro Munhoz due to Munhoz's high output, durability, and pressure fighting style. He acknowledges that Aldo is technically superior and could win early rounds, but expects Munhoz to take over in the later rounds as Aldo fades. He also notes that Munhoz has been robbed by judges before, which makes him less confident, but he still picks Munhoz to get it done.

"I'm a slightly lean Pedro because of the output but man I would be lying if I said I was confident counting out a legend like Jose Aldo"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2021 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Aldo has shown he can adapt, using grappling to win rounds. He is the better striker and should check Munhoz's calf kicks. Munhoz is durable but gets hit a lot, and Aldo can outpoint him over three rounds. Aldo's cardio is better in three-round fights, and he should win a decision. Munhoz's path is marching forward and landing big shots, but Aldo's experience and technique should prevail.

Aldo by decision +180
"I like 34 year old aldo here against the guy in munoz who I think has kind of just been benefiting from that cody garbrandt knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He acknowledges Cody's reasoning and mentions interest in the under 2.5 rounds at +175, but does not commit to a side. He notes that Aldo may look good early but pace slows, and that grappling may not be an option for Aldo.

under 2.5 rounds +175
"i'm interested potentially in the under here we'll see we'll see how these guys look on the scales this week but i think under two and a half rounds of plus 175"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2021 (6 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Pedro Munhoz. He notes Aldo's size advantage, reach, and speed, and believes three rounds is not enough for Munhoz to wear on Aldo. He predicts Aldo will win the first two rounds and take a 29-28 decision. He mentions Aldo's body shots and Munhoz's vulnerability to body strikes.

"i'm gonna go with jose aldo here i think he's just too big"
WIN vs Jimmie Rivera
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane · Feb 27, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Pedro Munhoz 0 94 of 194 48% 94 of 194 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jimmie Rivera 0 65 of 193 33% 65 of 193 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Pedro Munhoz 0 37 of 72 51% 37 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jimmie Rivera 0 31 of 80 38% 31 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Pedro Munhoz 0 26 of 49 53% 26 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jimmie Rivera 0 18 of 50 36% 18 of 50 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:04
3 Pedro Munhoz 0 31 of 73 42% 31 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jimmie Rivera 0 16 of 63 25% 16 of 63 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Pedro Munhoz 94 of 194 48% 35 of 115 19 of 27 40 of 52 93 of 193 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jimmie Rivera 65 of 193 33% 48 of 168 4 of 8 13 of 17 65 of 193 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Pedro Munhoz 37 of 72 51% 12 of 40 5 of 7 20 of 25 37 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jimmie Rivera 31 of 80 38% 20 of 67 3 of 5 8 of 8 31 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Pedro Munhoz 26 of 49 53% 8 of 26 7 of 8 11 of 15 25 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jimmie Rivera 18 of 50 36% 14 of 43 0 of 0 4 of 7 18 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Pedro Munhoz 31 of 73 42% 15 of 49 7 of 12 9 of 12 31 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jimmie Rivera 16 of 63 25% 14 of 58 1 of 3 1 of 2 16 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jimmie Rivera

Big Brady picks Jimmie Rivera to win by decision. He highlights Rivera's 92% takedown defense and speed advantage. He notes Munhoz is extremely hittable, absorbing more strikes than he lands, and that Rivera will outvolume him. He thinks Munhoz needs a finish to win, but Rivera has only been knocked out once and Munhoz has never been finished. He mentions Rivera is in his prime and has lost only to top competition. He likes the moneyline at -150 and considers a decision prop.

decision win for Rivera
"give me jimmy rivera i'm going to say he wins by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Feb 26, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jimmie Rivera

Daniel Levi picks Jimmie Rivera, but with hesitation. He notes Rivera is the cleaner striker and historically does well in decisions, while Munhoz has more finishing potential. Levi worries about Rivera's chin but thinks if it goes to the scorecards, Rivera edges it. He acknowledges Munhoz's power and calf kicks but leans Rivera by decision.

"If this goes to the scorecards i got jimmy rivera if this ends inside the distance however that's where i would kind of lean towards pedro... i'll go with jimmy to slightly edge a decision here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jimmie Rivera

Rivera is a Muay Thai specialist with superior footwork and striking technique. Munhoz is a walking punching bag who marches forward, but Rivera's calf kicks and combinations should outclass him. Rivera's takedown defense is strong, and Munhoz's only chance is a knockout, which is unlikely given Rivera's durability. Expect a decision win for Rivera.

Rivera by decision at +120
"i really really like jimmy rivera here again the only real knock on his fight ... is if he knocks out jimmy rivera"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Jimmie Rivera

The MMA Guru picks Jimmie Rivera, believing he won the first fight clearly and has improved more than Munhoz since then. He notes Rivera is now in his prime while Munhoz is past his, and expects Rivera to outbox Munhoz over three rounds, winning a unanimous decision 30-27. He mentions Munhoz's only chance is a knockout, but Rivera is aware of that threat.

"i'm definitely going to be picking jimmy rivera to get the job done here i think he's improved more than pedro munoz"
Expert Picks (3)
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Dec 8, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

Big Brady picks Dominick Cruz by decision, but with low confidence. He notes that Cruz has excellent striking defense (72%) and movement, and the bigger cage favors his footwork. Munoz is dangerous with leg kicks and submissions, but he absorbs a lot of strikes. Brady believes Cruz can stay on the outside and outpoint Munoz, but Munoz's power and grappling threat make this a close fight.

"i will pick him to win by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

Daniel Levi picks Dominick Cruz to win by decision, citing Munhoz's struggles against point fighters. He notes that Munhoz gets hit frequently (six times per minute) and has lost to fighters like John Dodson and Frankie Edgar who use movement. Levi believes Cruz's footwork and elusiveness will frustrate Munhoz, and the larger octagon at T-Mobile gives Cruz more room. He acknowledges Munhoz's power and calf kicks but thinks Cruz can neutralize them. Levi sees Cruz winning a clear decision.

"give me dominic cruz to upset pedro munoz here saturday night"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

The MMA Guru picks Dominick Cruz to win by decision (29-28). He believes Cruz's footwork and range management will be problematic for Munhoz, who struggles against fighters who stay on the outside. He notes the bigger cage favors Cruz and that Munhoz has faded in recent fights.

29-28 decision
"i'm gonna go with dominic cruz i think his footwork is going to be a problem for pedro munoz"