Career Averages - Pedro Munhoz
Career Averages - Sean O'Malley
Pedro Munhoz
Sean O'Malley
Pedro Munhoz - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aiemann Zahabi | 0 | 109 of 206 | 52% | 110 of 208 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 95 of 327 | 29% | 95 of 327 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aiemann Zahabi | 0 | 30 of 51 | 58% | 30 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 26 of 72 | 36% | 26 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Aiemann Zahabi | 0 | 41 of 90 | 45% | 42 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 22 of 109 | 20% | 22 of 109 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Aiemann Zahabi | 0 | 38 of 65 | 58% | 38 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 47 of 146 | 32% | 47 of 146 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aiemann Zahabi | 109 of 206 | 52% | 98 of 188 | 11 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 109 of 204 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 95 of 327 | 29% | 82 of 304 | 7 of 14 | 6 of 9 | 94 of 324 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aiemann Zahabi | 30 of 51 | 58% | 24 of 43 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 26 of 72 | 36% | 23 of 65 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 25 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Aiemann Zahabi | 41 of 90 | 45% | 37 of 81 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 41 of 89 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 22 of 109 | 20% | 16 of 100 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 107 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Aiemann Zahabi | 38 of 65 | 58% | 37 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 38 of 65 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 47 of 146 | 32% | 43 of 139 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 47 of 146 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zahabi (-115), Munhoz (-105)
Round 1
Posting one win in each of the last four years, Tristar Gym’s Zahabi (11-2, 5-2 UFC) has slowly but surely figured things out and climbed the bantamweight ladder. He earns a top-15 adversary in Munhoz (20-9, 2 NC; 10-9, 2 NC UFC), who on the wrong end of his 30s plans on showing there are still levels to this game. Referee Jerin Valel will officiate the preliminary headliner, one that commences as the sportsmen clap hands. Munhoz awkwardly shifts his way forward, throwing Zahabi off with his unusual hopping non-rhythm. Zahabi cannot get a time on him, and he resorts to backing off and lifting his leg up preemptively expecting leg kicks to fly. No strike is thrown for the first 50 seconds until Munhoz says hello with a guard-piercing jab. Munhoz walks Zahabi down and jabs him in the face again, and his front kick does the same to the body. Zahabi lumbers forward with two looping hooks, and a third bounces off the guard. Zahabi pounds the body with a kick, and Munhoz jabs him back to the fence. Zahabi’s big swings are parried or met with jabs, as Munhoz throws straight strikes while keeping his guard up. Zahabi whips another kick to the liver, and he scoops a left hand over the top. Munhoz stays right in Zahabi’s face, reddening him with jabs and slipping counters. Zahabi gets hold of a right hook that Munhoz cannot dodge, but it does not irritate the Brazilian in the slightest. Munhoz sneaks a high kick up, and when he bends over to evade the counters, he ducks into a knee. Zahabi stabs his toes to the liver, and Munhoz’ jab-heavy approach does not falter. Munhoz follows a jab with a left hook, and he swats away a lunging Zahabi and his combo. Zahabi looks for another knee as Munhoz bends, but he does not set it up and instead tags Munhoz in the face with a pair of flush punches. Munhoz jabs and lands a right, and Zahabi works the body and head in response. Zahabi scores a left hook on an advancing Munhoz, and Munhoz throws a low kick and stuffs a takedown shot. Munhoz jabs and sets up a straight right hand and a sharp kick to the ribs. Zahabi keeps his guard up to defend an elbow, and he evades a looping right hand by a matter of inches. Munhoz jabs his way into range, and he is backed off by a pair of jabs from the Canadian. Zahabi gets a high kick up, and they trade hands until the time hits 5:00.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Round 2
Munhoz offers a glove touch that is accepted, and he follows it with a few jabs. Munhoz uses the jab to smack Zahabi in the face with a right hand, and Zahabi fires back with a head kick followed by a few punches. Munhoz walks into a knee as he is pressing the action fearlessly, and he does not let Zahabi land without firing back relentlessly. Munhoz opens up with five punches that largely bounce off the guard, and Zahabi works the body with a kick. Zahabi slings an elbow as Munhoz advances, and Munhoz’ jabs are now more frequently being followed with power punches. Munhoz eats a right hand and tries to give one back, and Zahab kicks him in the side again. Munhoz dips and strikes, and he absorbs an uppercut without concern. Munhoz scores a solid right hand that sends Zahabi staggering to the right for a second, but the Canadian steels himself and strikes Munhoz repeatedly with hard jabs. Munhoz is right there in his grill hitting him back, and these two are unloading on one another. Zahabi times a break with a heavy body kick, and the punch salvos of three or more fly from both sides. Zahabi eats a right hand so he can sit down on a clean right counter, and Munhoz smiles and walks him down to slug him back. Munhoz ducks to shoot for a takedown, swelling growing under his left eye, and he cannot ground the Tristar-trained competitor. Munhoz lands a low kick and is jabbed back, but he opens up with right hand into a takedown. Zahabi smoothly sprawls and fights behind his jab, dealing well with Munhoz’ constant pressure. Munhoz slams another leg kick home, opening up a few punches up top. Zahabi strafes to the side when Munhoz swarms him, and he jabs twice and takes a thudding right hand on the temple. Zahabi lands a left and a hooking right, and he stops a double-leg entry without issue and knees “The Young Punisher” in the gut. Zahabi sets up a few punches after the knee, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi
Round 3
Munhoz comes out firing in the last round, with both rounds somewhat close and potentially everything up for grabs in the last five-minute stanza. Munhoz plods forward throwing big hands, and Zahabi’s defense protects from most of it. Munhoz jabs to the body with a foot and up high with a fist, and he parries a counter to put two fists on the dome of his foe. Munhoz rolls with a punch, walks into a right hand and responds with a pair of punches. Zahabi gets a knee up the middle, and Munhoz sends him wobbling back with a couple heavy blows. The fighters continue to trade without fear, and Munhoz has the volume advantage but gets a cut opened up on the right side of his right eye. Zahabi’s jabs target that spot with impunity, and Munhoz completely ignores it to load up on volume punches. Zahabi’s jab is money, forcing Munhoz to wipe his eye. Zahabi shoots for a takedown, and Munhoz stuffs it and splits the guard with a trio of strikes. Zahabi dips to score a right and snaps the head back with a jab, but “The Young Punisher” is right in front of him putting hands on him. They jab at the same time, and Munhoz has three fists flying immediately after launching it. Zahabi’s guard stops the Brazilian from most of his strike getting through, and he stops a takedown with ease. Munhoz charges recklessly with lunging punches, and the counters from Zahabi further chew up Munhoz’ face. Munhoz gets caught with a right hand and hits his seat, and he jumps back up to put hands on jaw. Munhoz scores two right hands over the top, and he motions for Zahabi to swang and bang with him. There is a failed takedown as they trade leather, and Valel gets between them as time expires but they just want to hug it out.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Zahabi)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Zahabi)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Zahabi)
The Official Result
Aiemann Zahabi def. Pedro Munhoz via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Aiemann Zahabi due to high fight IQ and a well-trained corner (brother Firas). He notes Pedro Munhoz is a volume striker with dangerous BJJ but negative striking differential. He thinks Zahabi's point-fighting style could work, but if he just sits on right hands, Munhoz will touch him up. He says over 2.5 rounds is probably safe but likely won't bet this fight.
Big Brady picks Pedro Munhoz to win by decision. He criticizes Zahabi's low output (3.43 significant strikes per minute) and boring style, while Munhoz is more active (5.32 per minute) and has fought tougher competition. Brady likes Munhoz's leg kicks, durability, and takedown defense. He notes that Zahabi does nothing in the cage and that Munhoz's experience against top fighters gives him the edge.
Cody picks Pedro Munhoz, citing his durability and higher level of competition. He notes that Munhoz has fought top bantamweights and has a BJJ black belt, though he rarely uses it. He believes Munhoz's aggression and pressure could overwhelm Zahabi, but acknowledges the fight is close and could go either way. He is wary of hometown judging but sides with the Brazilian.
Daniel Vreeland picks Pedro Munhoz, despite acknowledging his decline from a top-five ranking. He believes Munhoz's higher output, calf kicks, and durability (never knocked down) will be too much for Aiemann Zahabi. Vreeland notes that Zahabi is 36 and not a young prospect, and that Munhoz's experience and pace should earn him a close decision, though he admits a Canadian bias could affect judging.
Zahabi is on a Cinderella run with upset victories in his last four wins. He will out-strike and out-volume Munhoz en route to a decision victory.
Paul picks Aiemann Zahabi, arguing that Munhoz is older (38) and has slowed down, while Zahabi is fresher with less mileage. He notes Zahabi's reach advantage and precise striking, and believes he can keep Munhoz at range with his jab. He also mentions Zahabi's four-fight winning streak and momentum, and that Munhoz's aggressive style plays into Zahabi's counter-striking game.
The Guru picks Aiemann Zahabi over Pedro Munhoz, believing Munhoz is declining. He notes Zahabi's movement and strategy from the Firas Zahabi camp, and expects Zahabi to pick apart Munhoz's dipping, hook-swinging style. He predicts a close decision, possibly 29-28.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Phillips | 0 | 52 of 140 | 37% | 52 of 140 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 114 of 275 | 41% | 115 of 276 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyler Phillips | 0 | 19 of 54 | 35% | 19 of 54 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 55 of 120 | 45% | 56 of 121 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Kyler Phillips | 0 | 20 of 42 | 47% | 20 of 42 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 32 of 75 | 42% | 32 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Kyler Phillips | 0 | 13 of 44 | 29% | 13 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 27 of 80 | 33% | 27 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Phillips | 52 of 140 | 37% | 23 of 99 | 17 of 24 | 12 of 17 | 48 of 134 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 114 of 275 | 41% | 74 of 224 | 17 of 24 | 23 of 27 | 111 of 269 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyler Phillips | 19 of 54 | 35% | 11 of 44 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 17 of 50 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 55 of 120 | 45% | 41 of 104 | 6 of 8 | 8 of 8 | 52 of 114 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Kyler Phillips | 20 of 42 | 47% | 7 of 22 | 7 of 12 | 6 of 8 | 20 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 32 of 75 | 42% | 16 of 56 | 8 of 9 | 8 of 10 | 32 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kyler Phillips | 13 of 44 | 29% | 5 of 33 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 11 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 27 of 80 | 33% | 17 of 64 | 3 of 7 | 7 of 9 | 27 of 80 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Phillips (-238), Munhoz (+195)
Round 1
In the talent-rich no-nonsense bantamweight division, speed sells, and both Munhoz (20-8, 2 NC; 10-8, 2 NC UFC) and Phillips (11-2, 5-1 UFC) are buying. Nine years the elder, Munhoz has served as the more active man of the two over the last few years. Referee Keith Peterson is ready to keep up with these two talented competitors, whether they need 15 seconds or 15 minutes to get things done. The fighters touch ‘em up to begin, and Munhoz moves forward, only to dodge a low kick and a pair of jabs. Phillips reaches his foe with a second leg kick, and Munhoz leaps forward to grab the leg and take the fight down. Phillips spins with a wheel kick that draws audible gasps but does not connect, and he chains a few punches into it to keep Munhoz from crowding him. “The Young Punisher” gets inside to land a right hand, and Phillips scores back with his own offense. Munhoz intercepts a striking Phillips to tackle him to the mat. Munhoz leaps into the guard, but Phillips kicks him off and pushes off with a finger when getting to his feet. Peterson sees this and allows Munhoz to recover, and Munhoz only takes a few seconds before he is ready to go. The two bantamweights jab at one another, and Phillips whips a head kick after. Both men throw leg kicks, and Munhoz crowds him and lands punches that force Phillips to turn away and escape on the edge of the cage. Munhoz pushes out a front kick, and Phillips times a right hand over the top. The two measure one another in single strikes, and Phillips kicks low and buzzes the hair with a kick. Phillips keeps his long jab outstretched, and he leans back when Munhoz wings inaccurate but powerful punches at him. Phillips dodges and spins with a back kick, and he drives a knee on the chin that stings Munhoz. Phillips unloads with a barrage of punches and kicks, and he further tags Munhoz in his long series of strikes. Munhoz gathers himself and throws back, and he knees him in the face. Phillips jabs out his finger while rattling off a long combo, and he jams it into Munhoz’ eye. Phillips also cuts Munhoz, and it was a punch that cause it and not the poke. When they get back to it, Munhoz wipes his eye and engages in a brawl. Phillips sticks and moves, landing flush and getting shoved back with a front kick. Phillips nods at him and eats a left hook that cuts him on the cheek. The fast and furious round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Round 2
The cut on the eyelid of Munhoz is not sealed between rounds, and blood leaks from it to start off the round. Phillips sprints forward to attack, and Munhoz is right there to greet him with strikes including a pair of low kicks. Phillips has a one-two bounce off the guard, and he comes up short with a hook kick. Munhoz checks a low kick, and he dips down to rip a left to the body. Phillips kicks him back in the leg, and Munhoz is right there to chop him back. They both crack one another with left hooks, and Munhoz slips and scores a right. Phillips connects with a solid right hand, and Munhoz’ chin is made of sterner stuff. Phillips grazes the hair with a fast head kick, and he swats away a jabbing front kick. Phillips rifles off several jabs while Munhoz comes at him, and he evades the heavier of the strikes coming his way. They both go low with a kick, and Munhoz has his guard raised to block a standing elbow but it cannot defend against a body kick after it. Munhoz keeps his head movement on full display as he dodges and ducks vicious strikes like a spinning back fist, and he remains right close to Phillips. Phillips kicks him in the mouth, and Munhoz takes it cleanly and wades forward to throw back. Munhoz shoulder-rolls when a right hand comes down the pipe, and he parries a left hook. The two trade leg kicks, and Phillips hops forward and stomps the side with a kick. Phillips digs a left to the body and right to the head, and Munhoz does not bat an eye. Phillips chains punches together into a low kick, and he slides back before Munhoz can reach him. Munhoz scores a single body kick, but it is one-and-done while Phillips is largely more active. Phillips gets off a right and a left, and he leapfrogs Munhoz when Munhoz ducks down. Phillips spins with a wheel kick that tags Munhoz, and he stops a potential takedown from coming at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Round 3
Munhoz sprints out of his corner ready to engage, and he tosses out a glove touch before darting in to shoot for a takedown. Phillips staves it off and pops out several jabs, keeping him away from the right hand of the Brazilian. They both smack one another with leg kicks, and then aim body shots. Phillips lands a right to the body and a spinning back kick to the other side. Munhoz jabs his way in and misses with an overhand right, and Phillips jabs and paws at the damaged eye of his opponent. Phillips shimmies as he dodges, and he flicks out a front kick that lands on the chin. The two clinch up, but nothing comes of it as Phillips is out of range when he tries to reach a left hand on the break. Phillips strafes to the side and lands a right hand up top along with a body kick. Munhoz scores a low kick, but Phillips is right in his face with punches and his own leg kick. Munhoz snaps the head back with a jab, and he absorbs a clean leg kick in response. Phillips looks to counter a leg kick with a right hand over the top, and he bounces and moves to flick out jabs. Munhoz times a right hand while Phillips is bouncing around, and Phillips has to reset. Phillips slaps a leg kick in the outer lead leg, and he steps in with a left hook and whips a head kick up on the other side. Munhoz does not bat an eye, and he spins with a back kick aimed at Phillips’ head but cannot reach him. Munhoz prods out a front kick, only to get driven back by punches and a head kick. Phillips kicks low to stop Munhoz from getting to him. It temporarily disrupts Munhoz’ constant forward movement, but Munhoz is quick to get back to racing forward. Phillips has a head kick bounce off the guard, and he clips Munhoz with an overhand right. “The Matrix” styles on his opponent with punches that leads to a spinning kick, and the fight ends as Phillips attempts and lands a back flip to celebrate.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Phillips (30-27 Phillips)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Phillips (30-27 Phillips)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Phillips (30-27 Phillips)
The Official Result
Kyler Phillips def. Pedro Munhoz via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo leans Kyler Phillips due to his youth, cardio, and well-rounded game, but acknowledges Pedro Munhoz is the better fighter on paper. He notes Munhoz is 37 and has only one win in five fights, while Phillips is younger and has momentum. He won't bet because the odds on Phillips are too wide for an untested fighter.
Big Brady picks Kyler Phillips to win by decision. He likes Phillips' movement, volume, and sneaky power, and notes that Munhoz has been outlanded in recent fights. He expects Phillips to win the first two rounds and possibly drop the third, winning 29-28. He also mentions a PrizePicks play on Phillips under 2.5 takedowns.
Cody acknowledges Phillips' speed and athleticism but worries about his cardio and durability. He thinks Phillips can win the first two rounds with movement and volume, but Munhoz's durability and pressure could lead to a late finish or decision for Munhoz.
Daniel leans towards Phillips due to youth, speed, and explosiveness. He notes Phillips goes balls to the wall and may fatigue, but Munhoz has also slowed down in later rounds recently. Daniel is not interested at the price but picks Phillips to win.
Phillips has a speed, footwork, and technical striking advantage that should allow him to dance around at range and touch up Munhoz. He tends to fade in the third round due to cardio issues, but he should win the first two rounds clearly and survive the third. Munhoz is a tough veteran with power and forward pressure, but his short reach and tendency to get outpointed by technical strikers is a concern. Phillips should put on a similar performance to his win over Barcelos, using movement and output to win a decision.
Paul agrees with Cody's assessment, noting Phillips' reach and speed advantages. He thinks Phillips can win the first two rounds and hold on in the third, but acknowledges the risk of Munhoz's leg kicks and pressure.
The MMA Guru picks Pedro Munhoz, arguing that Kyler Phillips' flashy striking style relies on hurting opponents, but Munhoz has never been dropped or wobbled. He notes Munhoz's low kicks and durability, and that even Sean O'Malley couldn't do much to Munhoz. He predicts Munhoz will win a decision, possibly 29-28, or even a draw if Phillips wins early rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Vera | 0 | 141 of 251 | 56% | 141 of 251 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 113 of 246 | 45% | 113 of 246 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marlon Vera | 0 | 39 of 66 | 59% | 39 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 38 of 71 | 53% | 38 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Marlon Vera | 0 | 49 of 84 | 58% | 49 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 45 of 91 | 49% | 45 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Marlon Vera | 0 | 53 of 101 | 52% | 53 of 101 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 30 of 84 | 35% | 30 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Vera | 141 of 251 | 56% | 109 of 212 | 9 of 14 | 23 of 25 | 138 of 246 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 113 of 246 | 45% | 53 of 177 | 20 of 28 | 40 of 41 | 111 of 244 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marlon Vera | 39 of 66 | 59% | 27 of 51 | 3 of 5 | 9 of 10 | 38 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 38 of 71 | 53% | 14 of 44 | 8 of 11 | 16 of 16 | 38 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marlon Vera | 49 of 84 | 58% | 37 of 71 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 10 | 49 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 45 of 91 | 49% | 23 of 64 | 7 of 11 | 15 of 16 | 45 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marlon Vera | 53 of 101 | 52% | 45 of 90 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 51 of 98 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 30 of 84 | 35% | 16 of 69 | 5 of 6 | 9 of 9 | 28 of 82 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vera (-198), Munhoz (+164)
Round 1
The UFC made the best of a rough situation when Henry Cejudo withdrew from this matchup against Vera (20-8-1, 14-7 UFC). With about a month to prepare, Munhoz (20-7, 2 NC; 10-7, 2 NC UFC) is more than ready to rise to the occasion and battle it out tooth-and-nail for 15 hard minutes. Neither man has ever been finished, so referee Herb Dean could be in it for the long haul. These two action-packed bantamweights meet in the middle with a glove touch, and Vera immediately takes the center of the cage to lord over it. Munhoz strikes first with a body kick, and he chains a leg kick into it. Vera keeps his hands high but Munhoz gets a right hand in, and the two end up clashing shins at the same time. Vera catches a kick and knocks Munhoz down to the ground, and he nearly lands an illegal soccer kick but pulls back at the last second. Munhoz gets right back up, and he starts chasing Vera with looping punches. Munhoz mixes in leg kicks, and Vera pierces the guard with a sharp jab. Both fighters trade front kicks, and Munhoz chips away at him with strikes to the legs and body. Vera ignores a front kick to the midsection and blocks a right hand, and Munhoz comes at him with a head kick that slides off the raised guard. Vera pops out another jab, and he parries the strikes from Munhoz that come his way. Vera connects with a hefty leg kick, and he snaps the head back with a straight left hand. Vera’s jab intercepts “The Young Punisher” crashing the pocket, and he hops back to avoid a body shot. Munhoz shoots in from a distance for a takedown, and Vera stifles it and responds with a jab and a leg kick. Munhoz’ nose is already starting to redden up, and Vera releases a low kick and a one-two. Munhoz charges, and Vera counters him with a knee that rebounds off the forearm of his opponent. Vera strings together three punches that do not find their home, but a jab does when Munhoz chops at his lead heel. Vera lets go with his hands in a short exchange, and Munhoz connects with two thudding left hands over the top. Munhoz fires off a right hook, and Vera replies with a front kick that grazes past his cheek. Munhoz swarms with two punches before changing stances and swinging with one more. Vera lands a leg kick and continues damaging Munhoz’ nose with jabs, and he stops Munhoz from backing him off thanks to his jab. Vera digs a left to the body, and he keeps his jab flowing. Munhoz elects to mimic this with three straight jabs, and leg kicks come from both fighters. Vera checks a leg kick and darts away when Munhoz throws hands, and Vera resets with a front kick and a swatting left hook. The close round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Round 2
The bantamweights come together in the middle of the cage, with Munhoz pushing out an immediate front kick. Vera slips punches and counters, and Munhoz lands another front kick to the body. Vera misses a head kick by a few inches, and he buzzes the hair with a second kick. Munhoz looses a big right hand, and Vera rolls with it and counters with a jab. Vera goes up high with a kick, and Munhoz swings a left hook that grazes past the target. Vera jabs a few times and parries a front kick to the side, and he connects with a thumping leg kick. Munhoz spams front kick, and Vera stands him up with a left hook on the inside. Vera peppers the nose with another sharp jab, and Munhoz lashes back with a strong leg kick and a left hook. Vera tanks it and kicks back on the lead wheel, and he paws out three punches that bounce off the gloves. Munhoz misses with a two-punch string, and he lands on a second effort. The right hands land from Munhoz, and Vera evades a spinning kick with ease. Vera gets in a short left hook, and he walks through a few leg kicks and has punches blocked. Munhoz plants a right hand down the pipe, and he backs off as he eats a body shot and protects his mug from a head kick. Munhoz plows forward and connects with a left, and they get off jabs at the same time. Munhoz follows it with a left hook, and they decide to dish out leg kicks one after the other. Vera nails his foe with a right hand, and Munhoz shakes it off and rubs his nose. Munhoz lands two straight right hands that Vera takes flush without batting an eye, and they swing their fists but end up missing with their exchanges. Vera slides a punch to land a left, and Munhoz whips a right hand over the top. Vera checks a leg kick and snaps out a jab, and a left and a right knock him back a few steps. Vera looks to catch a low kick and counter with a right hand, and he works the body as the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Round 3
They clap hands to get started with one final round, and they both swing leg kicks at the same time. Vera checks a kick and strikes with his jab, and Dean tells him to watch his fingers. Vera connects with a left to the body and a right to the head, and he clubs Munhoz with a right hand as Munhoz comes his way. Munhoz fires back when Vera lands on him, and he splits the guard with a right hand. The two hand-fight, and Vera tries to check a low kick. Vera stings Munhoz with a jab, and a second makes Munhoz blink it out. Vera goes with a left to the ribs and a right up top, and Munhoz considers taking the fight down as he is stunned. Vera continues to crush Munhoz’ nose with his jab, and Munhoz is fighting back but it is starting to get to him. Munhoz absorbs a flush one-two, and he swings for the fences only to get nailed with a left hook. Munhoz is there every step of the way, but his face is starting to show serious damage. Vera hammers a left to the body that bends Munhoz over, but Munhoz gathers himself and blitzes forward. Vera stands firm and fires out his piston-like jab, and Munhoz has no answer to it other than to try to get his own going as well. Vera checks a kick and puts three punches on the chin of his opponent, and Munhoz is tough but gets stung with two vicious lefts. Munhoz takes a flush jab and shakes his head only to crash forward, and even though he lands, Vera is hitting him much harder. Vera brings a high kick up top for good measure, and he jabs up Munhoz’ face. Vera blocks two punches and lands a right, and Munhoz slips the follow-up and kicks the body twice. Vera nods at him and wings a left hand, and Munhoz shoulder-rolls and counters. Vera plants his fist on the Brazilian’s chin three times in rapid succession, and he ignores a counter. Vera starts showboating, and he steps back as Munhoz spins with two unsuccessful kicks. Vera hoots, and he drops his hands and puts them behind his back. Before Munhoz can reach him, the razor-close matchup comes to a close. It could be anybody’s fight, and judges will have their hands full scoring the first two rounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vera (29-28 Munhoz)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Vera (29-28 Munhoz)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Vera (29-28 Munhoz)
The Official Result
Marlon Vera def. Pedro Munhoz via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Marlon Vera despite acknowledging red flags: Vera is overrated, has been outstruck in his last four fights, and lacks urgency. However, he believes Pedro Munhoz's orthodox striking style plays into Vera's strengths, as Vera excels against fighters who stand in front of him. He also notes Munhoz is on short notice. He has Vera in a parlay.
Big Brady picks Pedro Munhoz as a slight underdog, expecting a split decision. He notes Vera is a slow starter who loses first rounds and has been outstruck in four of his last five fights. Munhoz has never been knocked out or knocked down, and Brady believes the fight will be close, favoring the dog.
Cody highlights Vera's notorious slow starts, often losing the first round, which is problematic in a three-round fight. Munhoz has a good chin and Jiu-Jitsu, and could capitalize if Vera starts slow. He suggests live betting Vera after the first round if he loses it, but officially picks Munhoz as a live underdog.
Daniel Levi picks Marlon Vera, believing Vera will push the pace in the second and third rounds and win a decision. He notes that Vera struggles against longer fighters or those who put him on his back, but here Vera is the longer man. Levi thinks Vera will use front kicks and knees, and that Munoz slows down as fights progress. He also mentions that neither fighter has been finished, but both are hittable, so a finish is possible.
Lucrative James picks Marlon Vera to win, possibly by finish, despite Munhoz never being finished in 28 fights. He notes Vera's reach and height advantages, and believes Munhoz's durability may be declining. He expects Vera to pull away in rounds 2 and 3.
Vera is the more diverse striker and should land damaging blows as the fight goes on. However, Munhoz is durable and can win early rounds with forward pressure. The over 2.5 rounds is the best bet as Vera likely wins rounds 2 and 3 by decision. The moneyline is not worth it due to Vera's slow starts.
The MMA Guru picks Pedro Munhoz over Marlon Vera. He argues Vera relies on finishing opponents late, but Munhoz never gets wobbled, never slows down, and has fought the who's who of bantamweight. He notes Vera struggles in three-round fights and Munhoz's leg kicks and pressure will annoy Vera. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Munhoz.
Connor picks Gutierrez, agreeing that Munhoz has lost his edge since moving to American Top Team. He notes that Munhoz's old Kings MMA style of relentless pressure is gone, replaced by a more tentative approach. Connor believes Gutierrez's consistent output and target selection will outwork Munhoz, who has become too passive and reliant on a jab and footwork that don't suit his natural aggression.
Zane picks Gutierrez, highlighting his improvement and confidence versus Munhoz's decline. He notes that Munhoz has lost his aggressive, four-limbed attack and become more technical but less effective. Zane believes Gutierrez's volume, kicking game, and ability to attack all targets will overwhelm Munhoz, who has poor defensive footwork and has been vulnerable to leg kicks historically.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 26 of 41 | 63% | 26 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 25 of 47 | 53% | 25 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 19 of 25 | 76% | 19 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 15 of 26 | 57% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Munhoz | 26 of 41 | 63% | 0 of 9 | 0 of 2 | 26 of 30 | 26 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean O'Malley | 25 of 47 | 53% | 14 of 30 | 8 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 25 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pedro Munhoz | 19 of 25 | 76% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 22 | 19 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean O'Malley | 15 of 26 | 57% | 7 of 13 | 5 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Pedro Munhoz | 7 of 16 | 43% | 0 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 8 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean O'Malley | 10 of 21 | 47% | 7 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: O’Malley (-300), Munhoz (+250)
Round 1
Kicking off the main card is another fight that could have served as the main event of a Fight Night offering recently, as established veteran Munhoz (19-7, 1 NC; 9-7, 1 NC UFC) looks to shut down the “Sugar Show” of O’Malley (15-1, 7-1 UFC) at bantamweight. Feet and fists are sure to fly fervently, but not before referee Jason Herzog checks them in. The gloves are expectedly not touched given O’Malley’s chatter ahead of the fight, and they land leg kicks at the same time to start things off. O’Malley keeps a wide berth from afar, with a distance where even he cannot land with his significant reach advantage. They are cautious to engage, and O’Malley tosses out a few front kicks while Munhoz goes to the calf repeatedly. O’Malley loads up on an overhand right, and he checks a calf kick that zooms at him. Munhoz checks one in response, and he sweeps low with his rear leg. O’Malley pierces the guard with a jab, and Munhoz circles away and lands a solid leg kick as O’Malley switches stances. The American pokes out a few jabs but little else, and he leaps back as the low kick comes towards him. “Sugar Sean” spins with a back kick, and Munhoz is out of harm’s way in time. Munhoz hammers the leg multiples times, and O’Malley steps forward with a front kick and a straight right hand down the pipe. O’Malley slaps a front kick out, and it bangs into the cup. Herzog spots it immediately, and the crowd boos him despite that the foul lands cleanly. Munhoz takes less than a minute to get back to action, and O’Malley comes out throwing hands. Munhoz answers him with a barrage of leg kicks from both legs, and he appears fired up and walking O’Malley down. They continue to pepper the lead legs of one another with kicks, and Munhoz fires off a high kick that gets blocked in time. Munhoz bears down on him with a chopping kick, and they add up as O’Malley tries to push him back with jabs. The pink-haired fighter spin with a back kick to the midsection, and Munhoz answers him as he plants down with a thudding kick. Munhoz whiffs on a spin kick, and O’Malley mocks him with a pirouette as the crowd guffaws. The tentative round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley
Round 2
The second frame opens as Munhoz comes out running forward, and he switches stances every single time O’Malley does to mirror his stance and allow him to have effective leg kicks come out. Munhoz misses on a head kick, and a front kick as well as he pulls his leg back and lands awkwardly. O’Malley pokes out a few jabs to little effect, and Munhoz retreats and gets popped with a one-two. O’Malley spins with a wheel kick that just brushes past Munhoz’ hair, and one inch to the right could have spelled problems for the Brazilian. Munhoz kicks the midsection on his way in, and he swipes low with a kick. O’Malley absorbs a kick with an audible thud, and he loads up with a right hand that collides with the guard. O’Malley dings Munhoz with a straight right, and the Brazilian loads up on a low kick in response. Practically all of the strikes landed by “The Young Punisher” are leg kicks, and they are rarely more than single strikes. They continue to connect, and O’Malley, irritated from them, pops out a jab. Munhoz lands a punch, and O’Malley reaches out with his fingers outstretched to jab Munhoz in the eye. Munhoz turns away and tries to clear his vision. Herzog allows him to recover and calls in a doctor to give him more time, Munhoz seems to tell the doctor he cannot see out of his right eye. The doctor helps him wipe his eye, and Munhoz claims that all he sees is black from one eye. With that answer, Herzog and the physician properly call the fight off, as Munhoz cannot continue. This poke ruled an unintentional foul, it will go down as a no contest. This is an unfortunate ending to a competitive and intriguing bout, and hopefully the promotion can run it back in the near future.
The Official Result
Sean O’Malley vs. Pedro Munhoz is ruled a No Contest (Accidental Eye Poke) R2 3:09
Angelo picks Sean O'Malley, citing his accuracy and athletic striking. He believes Munhoz's volume and forward pressure will work against him as O'Malley sticks and moves. He expresses frustration with the matchup, feeling Munhoz is being fed to a rising star, but still sees O'Malley winning a decision.
Big Brady is confident in Sean O'Malley, citing his size, speed, and striking advantage. He notes Munhoz is hittable and absorbs many strikes, but worries about O'Malley's leg kicks and durability. He predicts O'Malley wins by decision, as Munhoz has never been knocked out.
Cody acknowledges Munhoz's path to victory via leg kicks and pressure, but notes Munhoz has declined and lacks wrestling. He thinks O'Malley's reach and speed will be decisive, and that Munhoz hasn't landed a takedown since 2018. He picks O'Malley as the rightful favorite.
Daniel Levi is confident in Sean O'Malley, having bet 5 units to win 2 at -250. He believes O'Malley's height, reach, volume, and stance switching will be too much for Munhoz, who is there to be hit and may be on the decline. Levi dismisses the leg kick narrative, noting that O'Malley can mitigate it by fighting southpaw. He respects Munhoz's guillotine and calf kicks but thinks O'Malley's evolution and youth give him the edge.
O'Malley is faster and more technical, but Munhoz has never been knocked out and has good leg kicks. O'Malley should win by decision, staying on the outside and avoiding leg kicks. The host is not confident in a finish and prefers the decision prop.
Paul agrees with Cody that O'Malley's reach advantage and volume will be key. He notes Munhoz's lack of wrestling makes it hard to back him at +275. He picks O'Malley to win.
The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley, citing his elusiveness, range advantage (7-inch reach), and ability to slow down pressure fighters. He believes Pedro Munhoz has declined and that O'Malley's front kicks and leg kicks will be key. He predicts O'Malley will pick Munhoz apart and win a decision, noting Munhoz's lack of offensive wrestling.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Cruz | 1 | 74 of 170 | 43% | 79 of 175 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 103 of 274 | 37% | 105 of 276 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Cruz | 1 | 21 of 45 | 46% | 26 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 25 of 51 | 49% | 25 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Dominick Cruz | 0 | 27 of 57 | 47% | 27 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 35 of 113 | 30% | 35 of 113 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Dominick Cruz | 0 | 26 of 68 | 38% | 26 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 43 of 110 | 39% | 45 of 112 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Cruz | 74 of 170 | 43% | 45 of 128 | 10 of 16 | 19 of 26 | 73 of 168 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 103 of 274 | 37% | 79 of 240 | 13 of 23 | 11 of 11 | 100 of 270 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Cruz | 21 of 45 | 46% | 14 of 33 | 2 of 5 | 5 of 7 | 20 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 25 of 51 | 49% | 18 of 42 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Dominick Cruz | 27 of 57 | 47% | 12 of 39 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 13 | 27 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 35 of 113 | 30% | 30 of 105 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 34 of 111 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Dominick Cruz | 26 of 68 | 38% | 19 of 56 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 26 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 43 of 110 | 39% | 31 of 93 | 6 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 43 of 110 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Dominick Cruz by decision, but with low confidence. He notes that Cruz has excellent striking defense (72%) and movement, and the bigger cage favors his footwork. Munoz is dangerous with leg kicks and submissions, but he absorbs a lot of strikes. Brady believes Cruz can stay on the outside and outpoint Munoz, but Munoz's power and grappling threat make this a close fight.
Daniel Levi picks Dominick Cruz to win by decision, citing Munhoz's struggles against point fighters. He notes that Munhoz gets hit frequently (six times per minute) and has lost to fighters like John Dodson and Frankie Edgar who use movement. Levi believes Cruz's footwork and elusiveness will frustrate Munhoz, and the larger octagon at T-Mobile gives Cruz more room. He acknowledges Munhoz's power and calf kicks but thinks Cruz can neutralize them. Levi sees Cruz winning a clear decision.
The MMA Guru picks Dominick Cruz to win by decision (29-28). He believes Cruz's footwork and range management will be problematic for Munhoz, who struggles against fighters who stay on the outside. He notes the bigger cage favors Cruz and that Munhoz has faded in recent fights.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 0 | 114 of 223 | 51% | 114 of 223 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 75 of 179 | 41% | 75 of 179 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 0 | 25 of 60 | 41% | 25 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 28 of 76 | 36% | 28 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 0 | 42 of 95 | 44% | 42 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 33 of 71 | 46% | 33 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 0 | 47 of 68 | 69% | 47 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 114 of 223 | 51% | 74 of 168 | 32 of 47 | 8 of 8 | 114 of 223 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 75 of 179 | 41% | 35 of 131 | 3 of 6 | 37 of 42 | 71 of 175 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 25 of 60 | 41% | 13 of 40 | 12 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 28 of 76 | 36% | 11 of 54 | 2 of 4 | 15 of 18 | 27 of 75 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 42 of 95 | 44% | 32 of 78 | 9 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 42 of 95 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 33 of 71 | 46% | 16 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 18 | 32 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 47 of 68 | 69% | 29 of 50 | 11 of 11 | 7 of 7 | 47 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 14 of 32 | 43% | 8 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 6 | 12 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Munhoz, arguing that Aldo is likely older than his listed age (34) and may be on the wrong side of 40. He sees Munhoz as a younger, high-volume fighter with leg kicks who can come forward and win. He acknowledges Aldo's counter-striking but believes Munhoz's constant movement and pressure will be key.
Big Brady sees this as a very close fight between Aldo's power and Munhoz's volume. He leans toward Munhoz's volume, noting Aldo's low output in recent fights. He thinks Munhoz's durability (never finished) will allow him to outwork Aldo and win a decision. He calls it one of the toughest fights to call on the card.
Cody picks Munhoz, arguing that Aldo fades in later rounds and Munhoz has excellent cardio and durability. He notes Aldo's recent reliance on grappling against Vera won't work against Munhoz. Cody sees Munhoz winning by decision after dropping the first round, and likes the live betting opportunity.
Daniel Levi slightly leans Pedro Munhoz due to Munhoz's high output, durability, and pressure fighting style. He acknowledges that Aldo is technically superior and could win early rounds, but expects Munhoz to take over in the later rounds as Aldo fades. He also notes that Munhoz has been robbed by judges before, which makes him less confident, but he still picks Munhoz to get it done.
Aldo has shown he can adapt, using grappling to win rounds. He is the better striker and should check Munhoz's calf kicks. Munhoz is durable but gets hit a lot, and Aldo can outpoint him over three rounds. Aldo's cardio is better in three-round fights, and he should win a decision. Munhoz's path is marching forward and landing big shots, but Aldo's experience and technique should prevail.
Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He acknowledges Cody's reasoning and mentions interest in the under 2.5 rounds at +175, but does not commit to a side. He notes that Aldo may look good early but pace slows, and that grappling may not be an option for Aldo.
The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Pedro Munhoz. He notes Aldo's size advantage, reach, and speed, and believes three rounds is not enough for Munhoz to wear on Aldo. He predicts Aldo will win the first two rounds and take a 29-28 decision. He mentions Aldo's body shots and Munhoz's vulnerability to body strikes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 94 of 194 | 48% | 94 of 194 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Jimmie Rivera | 0 | 65 of 193 | 33% | 65 of 193 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 37 of 72 | 51% | 37 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jimmie Rivera | 0 | 31 of 80 | 38% | 31 of 80 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 26 of 49 | 53% | 26 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Jimmie Rivera | 0 | 18 of 50 | 36% | 18 of 50 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 31 of 73 | 42% | 31 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jimmie Rivera | 0 | 16 of 63 | 25% | 16 of 63 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Munhoz | 94 of 194 | 48% | 35 of 115 | 19 of 27 | 40 of 52 | 93 of 193 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jimmie Rivera | 65 of 193 | 33% | 48 of 168 | 4 of 8 | 13 of 17 | 65 of 193 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pedro Munhoz | 37 of 72 | 51% | 12 of 40 | 5 of 7 | 20 of 25 | 37 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jimmie Rivera | 31 of 80 | 38% | 20 of 67 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 8 | 31 of 80 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Pedro Munhoz | 26 of 49 | 53% | 8 of 26 | 7 of 8 | 11 of 15 | 25 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jimmie Rivera | 18 of 50 | 36% | 14 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 18 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Pedro Munhoz | 31 of 73 | 42% | 15 of 49 | 7 of 12 | 9 of 12 | 31 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jimmie Rivera | 16 of 63 | 25% | 14 of 58 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Jimmie Rivera to win by decision. He highlights Rivera's 92% takedown defense and speed advantage. He notes Munhoz is extremely hittable, absorbing more strikes than he lands, and that Rivera will outvolume him. He thinks Munhoz needs a finish to win, but Rivera has only been knocked out once and Munhoz has never been finished. He mentions Rivera is in his prime and has lost only to top competition. He likes the moneyline at -150 and considers a decision prop.
Daniel Levi picks Jimmie Rivera, but with hesitation. He notes Rivera is the cleaner striker and historically does well in decisions, while Munhoz has more finishing potential. Levi worries about Rivera's chin but thinks if it goes to the scorecards, Rivera edges it. He acknowledges Munhoz's power and calf kicks but leans Rivera by decision.
Rivera is a Muay Thai specialist with superior footwork and striking technique. Munhoz is a walking punching bag who marches forward, but Rivera's calf kicks and combinations should outclass him. Rivera's takedown defense is strong, and Munhoz's only chance is a knockout, which is unlikely given Rivera's durability. Expect a decision win for Rivera.
The MMA Guru picks Jimmie Rivera, believing he won the first fight clearly and has improved more than Munhoz since then. He notes Rivera is now in his prime while Munhoz is past his, and expects Rivera to outbox Munhoz over three rounds, winning a unanimous decision 30-27. He mentions Munhoz's only chance is a knockout, but Rivera is aware of that threat.
Sean O'Malley - Fight History
AJ thinks O'Malley will be too fast for Zahabi, out-boxing and out-kickboxing him. He notes Zahabi is a pressure boxer who is slower and worse at everything O'Malley does, and doesn't bring a serious wrestling threat. He expects O'Malley to get his win streak going.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 48 of 92 | 52% | 67 of 111 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Song Yadong | 0 | 36 of 94 | 38% | 69 of 130 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 2:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 16 of 26 | 61% | 22 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Song Yadong | 0 | 10 of 23 | 43% | 23 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 | |
| 2 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 20 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Song Yadong | 0 | 14 of 31 | 45% | 34 of 53 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:28 | |
| 3 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 25 of 46 | 54% | 25 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Song Yadong | 0 | 12 of 40 | 30% | 12 of 40 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean O'Malley | 48 of 92 | 52% | 23 of 53 | 16 of 28 | 9 of 11 | 48 of 92 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Song Yadong | 36 of 94 | 38% | 15 of 55 | 2 of 6 | 19 of 33 | 36 of 94 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean O'Malley | 16 of 26 | 61% | 6 of 13 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 16 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Song Yadong | 10 of 23 | 43% | 0 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 15 | 10 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sean O'Malley | 7 of 20 | 35% | 1 of 8 | 5 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Song Yadong | 14 of 31 | 45% | 8 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 10 | 14 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sean O'Malley | 25 of 46 | 54% | 16 of 32 | 5 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 25 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Song Yadong | 12 of 40 | 30% | 7 of 29 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 8 | 12 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: O’Malley (-205), Song (+170)
Round 1
A bantamweight striker’s delight will treat fans in the co-headliner, as O'Malley (18-3, 1 NC; 10-3, 1 NC UFC) looks to get back on championship track. He will face off against underrated Team Alpha Male product Song (22-8-1, 1 NC; 11-3-1 UFC), whose only losses in the Octagon after 15 walks are to Kyler Phillips, Cory Sandhagen and Petr Yan. The third man in the cage tonight for this one will be referee Herb Dean, and gloves are touched before they start to fly.
Immediately after the touch, Song lets fly a low kick that O'Malley just stares at. O'Malley advances, peeling back right before reaching his opponent, and does this a couple times. Song kicks him in the front leg again a few times, and O'Malley answers with one back. The two bounce back and forth without throwing much for a good 30 seconds, until Song springs into action with a few punches. O'Malley potshots him with a left after Song completes his volley, but he cannot get out of the way of the oncoming kick and swarming offense. They trade spinning kicks, skimming them off one another, with O'Malley’s to the body the more effective. O'Malley jabs with front kicks to the body to stave off Song, who is slowly works his way in.
Song kicks the front leg and scores a right on the outside, only for O'Malley to counter him back. The result is a lot of tit-for-tat offense, where one man lands and the other tries to pay him back. Song rushes out with a left hand, and O'Malley digs a couple strikes to the body. Song walks through a front kick to lash out at the lead wheel of the Montanan, and he tries to corner O'Malley but cannot quite get a bead on his movement. Song drives home another hefty kick, and he charges in for a takedown attempt and puts O'Malley on his back. O'Malley defends with a guillotine choke, and when that fails, O'Malley shrugs to someone as if he thinks he should immediately be stood back up. Song grinds him out for the remainder of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Song
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Song
Round 2
Like the previous round, Song starts off with a glove touch and a calf kick. When O'Malley stumbles from the kick, Song tries to take advantage of it, and he just misses with a spinning back fist. Song walks through a front kick to plant a right hand on the forehead, and O'Malley no-sells it and looks for a counter. Song bounces in with a left hand and a high kick, and O'Malley slides away and responds with a body shot. Song goes to the front leg again, with O'Malley switching stances and taking damage on both as welts and redness are present on both legs. Song pounds the former champ with a left hand, shooting in for a single that he uses to drag O'Malley to a knee. O'Malley wall-walks to get back up with Song’s hands wrapped around his waist, and he elbows Song’s arms in hopes of breaking the grip.
Song knees the back of the thigh repeatedly, and he grabs the fence to reposition himself and then holds his arm low to defend some of the knee strikes. Song sweeps his post arm, and he transitions to a double and hits it while O'Malley looks for a guillotine, and the Team Alpha Male-trained athlete easily breaks out of it to establish top control. When O'Malley scoots back to his feet, Song follows him and hammers his front leg before blasting him in the face with a left hand. O'Malley jabs and gets countered by an overhand right, but it is his low kick that most gets O'Malley’s attention. Song loads up on power punches as he walks down the pink-shorted athlete, and O'Malley is able to sway and evade the worst of them. O'Malley gets off a body kick, and Song kicks the leg once before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Song
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Song
Round 3
O'Malley knows that an advancing Song is coming to strike him, so he makes sure to get out of the way before it can get to him. Song does not throw it, instead pawing out his jab to set up his looping right hooks that buzz the tower repeatedly. O'Malley jabs him to the belly, and his leg gets kicked hard. Song points to his leg after checking a kick, as if to taunt O'Malley for throwing it. He then chambers and fires multiple strong low kicks, ignoring a couple left hooks that catch him at least partially when he is off-balance. O'Malley sticks his foe with a right, and he slips away from the increasingly telegraphed counter. Song continues to chase down “Suga Sean,” darting after a takedown and pulling back when it is not there. O'Malley busts up Song’s nose to start it trickling down the mouth, and he does not register it as he stays within kickboxing range practically the whole time.
O'Malley flashes out jabs to the head and body, and he stuffs a takedown as boos rain down. Song just misses on a looping left hand, and he pushes out a right and dings O'Malley when ducking. O'Malley gathers his thoughts and belts the Chinese competitor with a crisp right hand. Song ducks and feints his way forward, coming out behind left hooks while O'Malley is the quicker, more direct striker with less arc on his swings. Song keeps walking the former champ down, and he misses by an inch with a spinning back elbow. When O'Malley counters him, Song smiles and goes after a takedown. O'Malley tosses him aside and knees him right on the chin, and a bloodied Song just grins and walks forward. O'Malley gets in a left, and he gets Song’s attention further with a right. Song points to the ground to initiate a brawl, and O'Malley motions to flip a coin and then fires off a high kick. The match comes to a close, with the first round likely the difference maker.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley (29-28 Song)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley (29-28 Song)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley (29-28 Song)
The Official Result
Sean O’Malley def. Yadong Song via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Sean O'Malley, arguing that O'Malley's best version (when he was partying and podcasting) would win. He believes O'Malley's clean footwork and accuracy will exploit Yadong's lack of striking defense. He notes Yadong is hittable and throws with power, but O'Malley should pick him apart. He hopes O'Malley returns to his old lifestyle for the win.
Big Brady notes O'Malley's losses came when opponents took him down repeatedly, but Song Yadong averages less than one takedown per 15 minutes. He believes O'Malley is the better striker and will win a striking match. He worries about O'Malley's mentality after two losses to Merab but expects the best version to win by decision.
Cody picks Sean O'Malley but is hesitant due to O'Malley's potential lack of motivation and Song Yadong's durability. He notes O'Malley's length and accuracy should allow him to win the first two rounds, but worries about a gritty third round. He suggests O'Malley by decision as a prop.
Connor also picks O'Malley, emphasizing that Song Yadong is an unimaginative fighter who lacks variety in his approach. He notes that Song's best path to victory (low kicks and wrestling) is possible but unlikely given O'Malley's mobility and range. Connor believes O'Malley's swagger and ability to make opponents hesitant will be key, and that Song's inability to cut off the cage will leave him chasing O'Malley all night.
Daniel Vreeland picks Song Yadong to win by decision. He criticizes O'Malley's recent timidity and reliance on counters, and notes that O'Malley has talked about retirement. Vreeland believes Song has the speed, leg kicks, and wrestling to compete with O'Malley, and that his well-rounded approach and power will be the deciding factors. He also mentions that Song has taken down Peter Yan, which bodes well for his wrestling advantage.
James believes O'Malley is a level above everywhere, with superior fight IQ and striking IQ. He expects O'Malley to stay at range, pot shot, and win via decision. He notes Song's durability but thinks O'Malley's smart game plan will prevail. James also mentions O'Malley's high fight IQ and preparation with Paul Czech.
The host sees this as a favorable matchup for O'Malley, who faces a fellow striker in Song Yadong. He believes O'Malley's striking wizardry, footwork, and trap-setting will allow him to out-strike Yadong and potentially land a knockout. The host notes uncertainty about O'Malley's mentality after two losses but thinks this style matchup will bring back the 'Sugar Show'. He does not see enough value on Yadong to pick the upset.
Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing O'Malley's 5-inch reach advantage and Song Yadong's slow starts. He believes O'Malley will use his footwork and volume to win a decision, though he notes Song's grappling improvements could be a factor. Paul sees O'Malley by decision as the most likely outcome.
The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley by decision, noting Song Yadong's durability and toughness. He believes O'Malley's reach, kicks, and power will be key, and that Yadong's facial cuts could lead to a stoppage. He predicts a 30-27 decision.
Zane picks O'Malley confidently, noting that Song Yadong is a plodding striker with poor footwork and range management, which plays perfectly into O'Malley's sniping style. He points out that Song has historically struggled against mobile fighters who fight off the back foot (e.g., Kyler Phillips, Cory Sandhagen). Zane also mentions that O'Malley's reach and footwork will make it hard for Song to close distance, and that O'Malley's durability is sufficient to handle Song's power.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 52 of 115 | 45% | 141 of 215 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 1 | 0 | 6:29 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 38 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 17 of 37 | 45% | 48 of 72 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:54 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 16 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 23 of 63 | 36% | 24 of 64 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 19 of 33 | 57% | 19 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 12 of 15 | 80% | 69 of 79 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 4:18 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 52 of 115 | 45% | 33 of 92 | 13 of 14 | 6 of 9 | 29 of 86 | 8 of 10 | 15 of 19 |
| Sean O'Malley | 31 of 57 | 54% | 14 of 35 | 15 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 30 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 17 of 37 | 45% | 10 of 30 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 27 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 7 |
| Sean O'Malley | 12 of 23 | 52% | 5 of 15 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 23 of 63 | 36% | 18 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 7 | 20 of 58 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean O'Malley | 19 of 33 | 57% | 9 of 19 | 9 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 12 of 15 | 80% | 5 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 12 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo believes the first fight was a clear win for Merab, not close as some recall. He thinks Sean's camp is already making excuses by calling Merab the GOAT. He sees no significant improvements from Sean and expects the same pressure wrestling and cardio to overwhelm Sean again. He dismisses concerns about Merab's toe injury as irrelevant.
Big Brady picks Merab Dvalishvili but is very hesitant. He believes Merab should win easily based on his wrestling, but worries about corrupt judges giving rounds to O'Malley if the fight is close. He notes that O'Malley was compromised in the first fight and that the UFC wants O'Malley to win. He ultimately goes with his gut that Merab gets it done by decision, but hates the price tag and suggests O'Malley plus 5.5 might be a good look.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Merab. He emphasizes that O'Malley's instinctual reactions in wrestling are a deep-seated issue that will be hard to overcome. Connor notes that O'Malley's go-to defense of giving up his back and handfighting works against lesser wrestlers but is suicide against Merab. He thinks O'Malley can improve but still loses.
Dvalishvili's high pressure, high pace, and insane cardio are too much for most opponents. Even if O'Malley learned from their first matchup, he won't be able to set up his traps or striking wizardry. Dvalishvili will control the fight, grind it out, and win on the scorecards to remain champion.
The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley to win by TKO or decision, citing adjustments and O'Malley's freshness. He believes the first fight was close and O'Malley can improve his takedown defense. He notes Merab's activity and lack of motivation, and thinks O'Malley's striking will be the difference. He predicts O'Malley wins rounds 1, 3, and 5, and possibly gets a TKO in the second or third round. He also mentions potential judging favoritism for O'Malley.
Zane picks Merab Dvalishvili, noting that O'Malley's wrestling defense is fundamentally flawed against Merab's relentless pressure. He believes O'Malley will be better prepared but still expects Merab to force him into a defensive shell and win via pace and takedowns. Zane references the Umar fight as evidence that Merab can be pushed but still wins.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 47 of 89 | 52% | 49 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 82 of 164 | 50% | 214 of 310 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 10:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 14 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 16 of 30 | 53% | 25 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 18 of 38 | 47% | 65 of 92 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:12 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 17 of 38 | 44% | 25 of 46 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 | |
| 4 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 21 of 32 | 65% | 74 of 89 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:37 | |
| 5 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 10 of 26 | 38% | 25 of 42 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 47 of 89 | 52% | 22 of 48 | 23 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 45 of 85 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Sean O'Malley | 82 of 164 | 50% | 55 of 130 | 4 of 6 | 23 of 28 | 29 of 85 | 8 of 14 | 45 of 65 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 14 of 28 | 50% | 6 of 16 | 6 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean O'Malley | 16 of 30 | 53% | 13 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 18 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 7 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 5 of 10 | 50% | 3 of 5 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Sean O'Malley | 18 of 38 | 47% | 14 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 31 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 11 of 21 | 52% | 7 of 13 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean O'Malley | 17 of 38 | 44% | 6 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 12 | 11 of 29 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | |
| 4 | Merab Dvalishvili | 6 of 9 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Sean O'Malley | 21 of 32 | 65% | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 19 | |
| 5 | Merab Dvalishvili | 11 of 21 | 52% | 2 of 8 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Sean O'Malley | 10 of 26 | 38% | 2 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 9 | 5 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 7 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dvalishvili (-285), O'Malley (+230)
Round 1
The main event will be refereed by Jason Herzog. O'Malley starts off with a spinning back kick to the body. Dvalishvili is able to walk O'Malley back towards the cage. Nice jab by O'Malley, who is also going to the body with punches from afar. Dvalishvili is eating jabs, having some issues with closing the distance early. O'Malley is keeping space with kicks and his jab. Dvalishvili is keeping the pressure on, forcing O'Malley to constantly move. A right hand for Dvalishvili lands, and the champion is then able to get a takedown. O'Malley is quick to get back up, although he grabs the fence. Dvalishvili stays clinched and leans a knee. O'Malley lands his own knee, but gets off-balance and slips. Dvalishvili lands a nice left hook before going for a double-leg takedown. O'Malley does a good job defending, but Dvalishvili is able to pick him up anyhow. Dvalishvili is in full guard. Dvalishvili slips in an elbow and several short hammerfists.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Round 2
O'Malley takes the center of the cage. Dvalishvili lands a body kick, while O'Malley misses a spinning back kick. A nice right hand to the body for "Suga." Dvalishvili counters O'Malley with two stinging right hands. O'Malley answers back with a strong right hand of his own. Dvalishvili is throwing kicks to the body. O'Malley's movement is much better this round. O'Malley lands a nice jab. Dvalishvili goes for a takedown, but O'Malley escapes from the cage. The round hits the halfway mark. O'Malley jabs to the body. Dvalishvili goes for another takedown, but O'Malley shucks him off and lands a nice left hand. Much better round for the challenger. Dvalishvili lands a right hand and goes for a takedown, but eats a left hand while entering. O'Malley is able to stay upright and hits the champ with a straight right as he exits. A big right hand for Dvalishvili, who keeps the pressure on as the round ends. Much closer round.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Round 3
15 minutes to go. Dvalishvili opens with an overhand right and rushes the challenger. O'Malley lands a solid counter, but Dvalishvili keeps the pressure on and dumps "Suga" to the ground. Dvalishvili is in guard. O'Malley is too happy to sit in guard and is just allowing Dvalishvili to be in control. Dvalishvili is landing shots to the body and slips an elbow in. A lot of time is getting eaten up. Dvalishvili advances into half guard. O'Malley gives up his back in order to get to his feet. Dvalishvili lands a slick knee to the head. Dvalishvili puts O'Malley immediately back down after he gets back to his feet. The fight is fully in Dvalishvili's control. Dvalishvili is in half guard and landing punches with 30 seconds left. Dvalishvili scrambles well into north-south position and is able to lock in a modified guillotine choke. This looks tight, and O'Malley taps. It's over, and Dvalishvili retains with his second-ever submission win.
The Official Result
Merab Dvalishvili def. Sean O'Malley via Submission (Modified Guillotine Choke); R3, 4:42.
Angelo picks Sean O'Malley but does not bet. He notes O'Malley has incredible accuracy and power, and only needs one shot to finish, while Merab has a suspect chin and a cut over his eye plus possible staph infection that could affect his cardio. However, he acknowledges that a healthy Merab could shoot 550 takedowns and win a boring decision. He is on O'Malley's side but too much of a coward to bet, though he mentions Jacob has bet on O'Malley.
Big Brady picks O'Malley, emphasizing damage over control. He notes Dvalishvili's game is takedown attempts with little damage, while O'Malley has power and finishing ability. He predicts O'Malley will land big shots and possibly knock out Dvalishvili in the second round, though a damage-based decision is also possible.
Cody believes Merab's wrestling and cardio will be too much for O'Malley, especially given O'Malley's inactivity and injury concerns. He notes that O'Malley's takedown defense hasn't improved enough and that Merab can make the fight look easier by pushing the pace early. He sees a unanimous decision win for Merab.
Daniel Vreeland picks Sean O'Malley, emphasizing that Merab takes a shot in almost every fight and O'Malley will land that one. He notes Merab's top control is not great and people get back up, differentiating him from Aljamain Sterling. He believes O'Malley is getting an easier fight than against Sterling because Merab is more hitable and susceptible to being countered.
Daniel picks Sean O'Malley to win, citing O'Malley's superior striking accuracy, footwork, and ability to fight going backwards. He believes O'Malley's teep kicks and straight shots will counter Merab's looping punches and pressure. Daniel also notes O'Malley's brown belt under Cesar Gracie and dismisses cardio concerns, but acknowledges Merab's takedown volume could be a factor if he closes distance.
Jeff Fox picks Sean O'Malley because he is a striker with a big reach advantage and has cleared every hurdle. He acknowledges Merab could take him down and grind out a win, but believes O'Malley can piece him up on the feet and has shown solid grappling.
Lucrative James believes the odds are slightly off, with Merab as a -305 favorite. He notes that Sean O'Malley has more margin for improvement after a close first fight where he hurt Merab in the fifth round. He sees value in O'Malley at +255 and plans to bet him, though he acknowledges Merab's wrestling and cardio make him the likely winner. He emphasizes betting value over picking the winner.
Dvalishvili has shown great durability and will stick on O'Malley like white on rice, not giving him the space to generate knockout power. Expects Dvalishvili to put O'Malley through the ringer, possibly approaching 50 takedown attempts, and win on the scorecards.
Paul thinks Merab's game plan is clear and that O'Malley's only chance is a puncher's chance. He points out that O'Malley hasn't fought since the first loss and has been nursing injuries, while Merab has been active and improving. He expects Merab to control the fight with wrestling and win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley by TKO in the first or second round. He notes Merab has a staph infection and a cut over his eye, which could be exploited. He believes O'Malley's footwork and takedown defense will neutralize Merab's wrestling, and that O'Malley's upward knees and left hook will be key. He also suggests the UFC may favor O'Malley and that an early stoppage is possible if Merab gets hurt.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 230 of 356 | 64% | 232 of 358 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Marlon Vera | 0 | 89 of 241 | 36% | 89 of 241 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 27 of 36 | 75% | 27 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marlon Vera | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 51 of 83 | 61% | 51 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marlon Vera | 0 | 16 of 46 | 34% | 16 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 35 of 58 | 60% | 35 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Marlon Vera | 0 | 17 of 54 | 31% | 17 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 56 of 84 | 66% | 57 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marlon Vera | 0 | 26 of 73 | 35% | 26 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 61 of 95 | 64% | 62 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marlon Vera | 0 | 21 of 47 | 44% | 21 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean O'Malley | 230 of 356 | 64% | 150 of 268 | 61 of 68 | 19 of 20 | 227 of 352 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Marlon Vera | 89 of 241 | 36% | 41 of 165 | 14 of 35 | 34 of 41 | 85 of 235 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean O'Malley | 27 of 36 | 75% | 7 of 14 | 10 of 12 | 10 of 10 | 27 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marlon Vera | 9 of 21 | 42% | 1 of 7 | 1 of 5 | 7 of 9 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sean O'Malley | 51 of 83 | 61% | 36 of 66 | 11 of 12 | 4 of 5 | 51 of 83 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marlon Vera | 16 of 46 | 34% | 7 of 29 | 0 of 5 | 9 of 12 | 16 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sean O'Malley | 35 of 58 | 60% | 21 of 43 | 13 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 35 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marlon Vera | 17 of 54 | 31% | 7 of 39 | 4 of 8 | 6 of 7 | 17 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Sean O'Malley | 56 of 84 | 66% | 42 of 70 | 11 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 56 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marlon Vera | 26 of 73 | 35% | 15 of 56 | 5 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 26 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Sean O'Malley | 61 of 95 | 64% | 44 of 75 | 16 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 58 of 91 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Marlon Vera | 21 of 47 | 44% | 11 of 34 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 17 of 43 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Marlon Vera as a dog, noting that underdogs have won five of seven main events in 2024. He thinks Vera's durability and power will be key, as O'Malley is a counter striker who may not engage. He also mentions the Miami crowd may favor Vera. He suggests betting the over on rounds.
Big Brady picks Sean O'Malley to win by decision, but is not feeling great about it. He notes that O'Malley is the better striker with more volume and accuracy, but worries about the later rounds as O'Malley has never been past three rounds. He believes Vera needs a knockout to win, and O'Malley should do enough to win a decision.
Cody believes O'Malley has improved significantly since the first fight, especially in managing space and distance. He thinks O'Malley will win on volume, similar to the Chris Moutinho fight, but acknowledges that Vera is durable and could come on late. He respects Vera but sticks with O'Malley as the pick, though he won't bet the moneyline.
Daniel Vreeland picks Sean O'Malley, emphasizing that O'Malley has improved his footwork and ability to cut angles. He notes that O'Malley's cerebral approach allows him to set traps, as he did against Aljamain Sterling. Vreeland argues that Vera fights by downloading information and then exploding, but O'Malley controls what Vera sees. He believes Vera's habit of giving up early rounds is dangerous against a finisher like O'Malley. Vreeland concludes that O'Malley is the better striker, longer, more explosive, and younger.
Daniel leans towards O'Malley to defend his belt, but he has significant concerns about O'Malley's durability and cardio. He notes that O'Malley will likely light up Vera early, but worries that O'Malley may gas out from beating on Vera, allowing Vera to take over late. Daniel references O'Malley's fatigue in the second round against Yan and Vera's proven durability and finishing ability. He also mentions that Vera's camp issues don't sway him. Ultimately, he picks O'Malley but calls it a 'dog or pass' betting situation.
Jeff Fox picks Sean O'Malley, noting that Vera is essentially the same fighter as in their first fight while O'Malley has improved significantly. He highlights O'Malley's improved footwork and ability to cut angles, as seen in the Aljamain Sterling fight. Fox also praises O'Malley's cerebral game, setting traps and controlling what his opponent sees. He believes Vera gives up early rounds and then has to press, which plays into O'Malley's hands. Fox is confident that O'Malley's striking, length, and youth will lead to a win.
O'Malley is the better technical striker with great fight IQ and trap-setting ability. He showed discipline and patience in his win over Sterling. However, Vera has never been knocked down in the UFC and is a slow starter who thrives in five-round fights. O'Malley may not get the early knockout, and if Vera finds his groove late, it could be competitive. I still pick O'Malley to win by decision, as his striking wizardry should allow him to outwork Vera over 25 minutes. I am passing on betting this fight due to the -300 line and Vera's durability.
Paul highlights Vera's slow-starting nature but five-round cardio and durability. He notes that O'Malley has not been tested in late rounds and that Vera's pressure and toughness will allow him to take over in rounds 3-5. He also points to a trend of underdogs winning main events recently and Vera's life-changing motivation.
The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley, predicting a boring fight where O'Malley uses low kicks and range to outpoint Vera. He argues O'Malley's feints are more dangerous because he can actually land the strikes he feints. He believes Vera will struggle to land his power shots and O'Malley will win a clear decision, possibly with a robbery if close. He notes O'Malley's underrated chin and better movement in the larger cage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 17 of 35 | 48% | 24 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Aljamain Sterling | 1 | 25 of 35 | 71% | 26 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 20 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Aljamain Sterling | 1 | 17 of 21 | 80% | 18 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean O'Malley | 17 of 35 | 48% | 3 of 12 | 3 of 10 | 11 of 13 | 16 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Aljamain Sterling | 25 of 35 | 71% | 18 of 25 | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 18 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean O'Malley | 13 of 26 | 50% | 0 of 5 | 2 of 8 | 11 of 13 | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Aljamain Sterling | 8 of 14 | 57% | 3 of 6 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sean O'Malley | 4 of 9 | 44% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Aljamain Sterling | 17 of 21 | 80% | 15 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 18 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sterling (-258), O’Malley (+210)
Round 1
In the main attraction inside of the
Boston Garden
FleetCenter
TD Banknorth Garden
TD Garden, two men with no particular affinity to Beantown will collide for bantamweight gold. In the truest sense of the overused phrase, this is a pure grappler vs. striker affair, one that pits defending champ Sterling (23-3, 15-3 UFC) against the exceptionally accurate O’Malley (16-1, 1 NC; 8-1, 1 NC UFC). Should Sterling get his hand raised, he will set the record for the most consecutive defenses in the division’s history, while O’Malley can become the second champion to make his way to the promotion from Dana White’s Contender Series – Jamahal Hill was the first. There is nothing more that needs to be said from these two or about these two, and referee Marc Goddard brings the two together to make the title fight official. The staredown lasts from the moment Bruce Buffer starts speaking through to part of the introductions, and they are intense. They do touch gloves, and it’s on with the show. When they come together, Sterling is quick to swat O’Malley’s hands down. Sterling leaps forward with front kicks and side kicks, and he reaches out with long jabs while O’Malley stays out of reach. Sterling lands a solid leg kick as he races after O’Malley, and O’Malley responds with a front kick. Sterling keeps busy with kicks to any target, and O’Malley jabs to the body. O’Malley pushes the pace and draws a reaction out of his opponent, and the crowd rains down a profane chant against the champion. Sterling puts his foot on the gas, and he leans back from a long left hand that comes at his chin. The two take turns leading the dance, but O’Malley’s work rate is quite low through the first half of the round. O’Malley feints and fakes his way in, and he has to block a body kick that gets past his guard. Sterling chips away at the lead leg, and he absorbs a front kick on the ribs. Sterling peppers O’Malley with three low kicks before O’Malley gives him a stomping kick back to his knee. Sterling’s inside calf kicks force a stance switch early, and O’Malley lunges forward but does not fire off anything. Sterling reacts significantly when O’Malley is about to strike, and he picks at O’Malley’s leg while strafing to the side. O’Malley drops his hands to taunt Sterling into coming at him, and Sterling keeps ripping leg kicks and little else. Sterling blazes past his foe with a kick, and O’Malley settles down and fires off a spinning back kick that backs him off. Sterling shoots in for a single, and he jams O’Malley up against the fence while holding his foe’s leg in the air. Sterling lands several short punches, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Round 2
The second round begins with the two rushing towards one another, and O’Malley lashes out with a kick that he misses and falls over after throwing. Sterling comes at him and pursues a takedown, and O’Malley backs himself against the wall to stay up. O’Malley shuts it down and drops back to line up a right hand, and Sterling misses with a punch and gets cracked right on the chin. Sterling crashes down to the ground on his face, and he turns to his side in an effort to get his wits about him. O’Malley follows him down and clubs him with hammerfists, and Sterling is moving but still taking damage. O’Malley continues his bombardment of punches, and Goddard is closely watching over things. Sterling turns over and looks to reach out with his left arm for a potential takedown, and Goddard waves the fight off. Some may consider it an early stoppage, given how Sterling was still moving and defending himself. Nevertheless, the fight is over and O’Malley is now the UFC’s bantamweight champion, and he is the second fighter off the Contender Series to claim a UFC strap. The landscape of the 135-pound weight class has now changed drastically, and a wealth of options present themselves for O’Malley first defense and upcoming title reign. Marlon Vera, Merab Dvalishvili, Umar Nurmagomedov and a few others are right in contention, and it will be interesting to see how it turns out. In his post-fight interview, O’Malley mentions that he would be up for his first defense against Vera this December, and Vera immediately responded on social media with a post of dollar signs and bags of cash. If that is the fight the UFC makes for its Dec. 16 pay-per-view card, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Sean O’Malley def. Aljamain Sterling R2 0:51 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Aljamain Sterling, expecting his wrestling to take over as Sean O'Malley slows down in the later rounds. He notes that O'Malley gassed in a three-round fight and this is five rounds. He thinks Sterling could win by submission but acknowledges O'Malley's toughness and striking threat. He believes Sterling's range management and takedowns will be the difference.
Big Brady picks Sean O'Malley to win by fourth-round knockout, but admits he's terrified of Sterling's early grappling. He believes O'Malley can stuff takedowns and make Sterling work, causing Sterling to slow down. Brady notes O'Malley's striking advantage and power, and thinks if O'Malley survives the first few rounds, he can finish Sterling late.
Cody believes Sterling's grappling and wrestling are a notch above O'Malley's, and that Sterling will take O'Malley down, control him, and win rounds. He notes that O'Malley's camp lacks confidence, and that the line is inflated due to O'Malley's popularity. He expects Sterling to win by decision or submission, and likes the value at -260.
Daniel Levi leans toward Aljamain Sterling, acknowledging that Sterling should be favored but questioning whether the -255 price is warranted. He notes that Sterling has a clear path to victory if O'Malley has no answer when his back is taken, but if O'Malley can stretch the fight out, all bets are off. Levi mentions that Sterling's cardio fades in championship rounds due to massive weight cuts, which could open a late path for O'Malley. He also highlights that O'Malley's confidence and training with Taki Mendez might help him survive early grappling exchanges. Ultimately, Levi picks Sterling but is not fully confident, as he is intrigued by O'Malley's potential to survive and capitalize late.
Lucrative James picks Sean O'Malley, citing his distance management, footwork, and underrated jiu-jitsu. He believes Sterling's frequent weight cuts and recent activity may affect his performance. He sees value on O'Malley's moneyline and thinks O'Malley could get a knockout or win rounds on damage.
Sterling has a clear grappling advantage and should be able to take O'Malley down and control him. O'Malley's takedown defense has been a weakness, and Sterling's pressure and back-taking ability will be key. Sterling will likely win a decision rather than chase a finish, conserving energy. The decision prop is the best play.
The MMA Guru picks Aljamain Sterling over Sean O'Malley. He believes Sterling's grappling will be the difference, as O'Malley will be worried about takedowns. He notes Sterling's tricky movement and ability to pressure O'Malley backwards. He predicts Sterling will take O'Malley down early, get his back, and win by TKO via ground and pound in round 1 or 2. He thinks Sterling will prove a point.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 58 of 96 | 60% | 97 of 139 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 5:44 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 84 of 163 | 51% | 91 of 171 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 19 of 31 | 61% | 28 of 41 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 23 of 55 | 41% | 23 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 24 of 39 | 61% | 45 of 62 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:42 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 21 of 37 | 56% | 22 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 15 of 26 | 57% | 24 of 36 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 1:52 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 40 of 71 | 56% | 46 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean O'Malley | 58 of 96 | 60% | 24 of 57 | 13 of 18 | 21 of 21 | 47 of 81 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 9 |
| Petr Yan | 84 of 163 | 51% | 63 of 132 | 6 of 14 | 15 of 17 | 80 of 158 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean O'Malley | 19 of 31 | 61% | 5 of 15 | 3 of 5 | 11 of 11 | 17 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Petr Yan | 23 of 55 | 41% | 13 of 37 | 3 of 9 | 7 of 9 | 23 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sean O'Malley | 24 of 39 | 61% | 12 of 25 | 7 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 29 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 7 |
| Petr Yan | 21 of 37 | 56% | 17 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 21 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Sean O'Malley | 15 of 26 | 57% | 7 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Petr Yan | 40 of 71 | 56% | 33 of 63 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 36 of 67 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Yan (-265), O’Malley (+225)
Round 1
Yan and O’Malley launch into action at the prompting of referee Jason Herzog. Yan is in orthodox stance; O’Mally southpaw. Yan stalks forward as O’Malley slides around the outside of the cage. Yan switches stances and flicks out his right jab, then switches back. Herzog shouts a warning to O’Malley to watch his extended fingers. Yan lands a right low kick and eats a hard right hand counter. O’Malley connects with a right low kick. Halfway through the round, Yan changes levels for a double-leg near the fence. O’Malley backs into the cage, trying to keep the Russian from taking his back. Yan gives up on the takedown and they return to the center. Yan lands a series of three left hands upstairs, then drops for another takedown. This time, he hoists the taller man and dumps him to the canvas. With a minute left, Yan is in O’Malley’s guard. O’Malley goes to stand and eats some punches on the way up, but they return to their feet. O’Malley shoots a takedown at the 10-second clapper, briefly takes Yan’s back in the ensuing scramble, but they separate before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Yan
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Round 2
Yan lands an outside low kick, then one to the inside of O’Malley’s lead leg. O’Malley comes back with a huge uppercut that has Yan hurt badly. Yan staggers away as O’Malley gives chase, landing more punches. Yan turns the tables with a massive punch of his own and now O’Malley is rocked. Yan ducks under and drags O’Malley to the mat. Yan is in O’Malley’s guard as O’Malley squirms and looks to escape. O’Malley pops up and Yan drives him to the fence. O’Malley grounds himself with a hand on the canvas to forestall knees to the head. They separate and a moment later, Yan pushes O’Malley back to the floor with a nice inside trip. O’Malley pops right back up. Under two minutes to go and Yan is matching O’Malley down. O’Malley pushes him back with a kick up the middle, and slips the counter punch. Yan flicks a high kick upstairs, then comes in behind it for a takedown. Yan is in O’Malley’s guard at the base of the fence with 45 seconds left in the round. Yan postures up and lands a couple of punches. The round expires.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Yan
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Round 3
Yan shoots for a takedown right away, but O’Malley defends well and stands him back up. O’Malley flicks out a couple of jabs. Yan lands a low kick. Yan swarms forward with hooks, then shoves O’Malley to the cage. O’Malley pushes him back off, and lands an intercepting knee that cuts Yan badly. Yan is bleeding right away. Yan comes up short with a pair of punches, then lands a one-two. O’Malley throws a high kick that glances. Yan shoots a fast takedown from way outside, but drives O’Malley to the fence, and gets him to the ground. Yan takes O’Malley’s back as they stand. O’Malley escapes and they separate. There’s 90 seconds left as they reset in the middle. O’Malley lands a pair of jabs to Yan’s bloodied right eye. Yan drags O’Malley to the ground late in the round, and is landing punches from guard at the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Yan (30-27 Yan)
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Yan (30-27 Yan)
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley (29-28 Yan)
The Official Result
Sean O’Malley def. Petr Yan via Split Decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
Angelo picks Petr Yan confidently, calling him a phenomenal striker with fantastic takedown defense and surprising takedown offense. He notes Yan's power, accuracy, and grappling, and believes O'Malley will have trouble finding a rhythm. He acknowledges Yan's tendency to take the first round off but still expects a one-sided fight.
Big Brady picks Yan to win by TKO in the second round. He notes Yan's power (nearly 10 knockdowns in the UFC) and ability to mix in takedowns. O'Malley has faced mostly strikers and hasn't been tested on the ground; Yan can pressure him and potentially finish on top. He believes Yan's experience against elite strikers like Aldo and Sandhagen gives him a clear edge.
Cody is confident in Yan, noting that Yan is an underrated wrestler who can take O'Malley down and control him. He points out O'Malley's weaknesses against pressure and wrestlers, referencing the Marlon Vera fight. Cody believes Yan's experience and ability to figure out opponents as the fight goes on will be key. He thinks Yan can win by decision or inside the distance, and that O'Malley's popularity is inflating his odds.
Connor is confident Yan will win, arguing that Yan's layered striking and ability to adapt will overwhelm O'Malley. He notes that O'Malley's offense is based on feints and theoretical threats, while Yan has multiple modes of attack and will take easy targets like leg kicks. He also points out that Yan can pressure O'Malley to the fence and take him down, as he did against Sandhagen.
Daniel Levi picks Petr Yan to win, citing Yan's proven chin and ability to both give and take damage. He questions O'Malley's durability, noting that while O'Malley can strike well, it's unknown how he handles getting hit by a powerful puncher like Yan. Levi thinks Yan will pressure O'Malley and make him fight, and that Yan's experience against tough opponents gives him the edge. He also mentions that Yan may start slow but will win rounds as the fight progresses. Levi does not bet this fight but is confident in Yan.
Yan has a slow-starting style but excels in championship rounds. He has wrestling upside that could exploit O'Malley's weakness on the ground. O'Malley may be competitive early with kicks, but Yan's takedowns and top control should secure rounds. Yan by decision at -110 is the pick, and if the line drops to -250, the moneyline becomes attractive.
Paul is confident in Yan, citing that Yan is the better fighter and that O'Malley's action is due to his brand. He worries about Yan giving up round one but thinks Yan will figure out O'Malley and win. Paul notes Yan's wrestling and takedowns as a path to victory, and mentions he took a small bet on Yan by submission at long odds. He believes Yan's experience and skill gap will show.
The MMA Guru picks Petr Yan over Sean O'Malley by third-round TKO. He believes Yan's pressure, combinations, and ability to crowd O'Malley will be too much. He notes O'Malley's struggles against volume strikers and his tendency to spin, which Yan can exploit. He predicts O'Malley wins the first round but gets hurt in the second and finished in the third.
Zane picks Yan, emphasizing that Yan's pressure and ability to take easy targets will expose O'Malley's defensive flaws. He compares O'Malley to Darren Till, noting that both rely on a coiled-spring style that elite fighters eventually figure out. He believes Yan will force O'Malley into uncomfortable positions and break him down over time.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 26 of 41 | 63% | 26 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 25 of 47 | 53% | 25 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 19 of 25 | 76% | 19 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 15 of 26 | 57% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Munhoz | 26 of 41 | 63% | 0 of 9 | 0 of 2 | 26 of 30 | 26 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean O'Malley | 25 of 47 | 53% | 14 of 30 | 8 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 25 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pedro Munhoz | 19 of 25 | 76% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 22 | 19 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean O'Malley | 15 of 26 | 57% | 7 of 13 | 5 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Pedro Munhoz | 7 of 16 | 43% | 0 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 8 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean O'Malley | 10 of 21 | 47% | 7 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: O’Malley (-300), Munhoz (+250)
Round 1
Kicking off the main card is another fight that could have served as the main event of a Fight Night offering recently, as established veteran Munhoz (19-7, 1 NC; 9-7, 1 NC UFC) looks to shut down the “Sugar Show” of O’Malley (15-1, 7-1 UFC) at bantamweight. Feet and fists are sure to fly fervently, but not before referee Jason Herzog checks them in. The gloves are expectedly not touched given O’Malley’s chatter ahead of the fight, and they land leg kicks at the same time to start things off. O’Malley keeps a wide berth from afar, with a distance where even he cannot land with his significant reach advantage. They are cautious to engage, and O’Malley tosses out a few front kicks while Munhoz goes to the calf repeatedly. O’Malley loads up on an overhand right, and he checks a calf kick that zooms at him. Munhoz checks one in response, and he sweeps low with his rear leg. O’Malley pierces the guard with a jab, and Munhoz circles away and lands a solid leg kick as O’Malley switches stances. The American pokes out a few jabs but little else, and he leaps back as the low kick comes towards him. “Sugar Sean” spins with a back kick, and Munhoz is out of harm’s way in time. Munhoz hammers the leg multiples times, and O’Malley steps forward with a front kick and a straight right hand down the pipe. O’Malley slaps a front kick out, and it bangs into the cup. Herzog spots it immediately, and the crowd boos him despite that the foul lands cleanly. Munhoz takes less than a minute to get back to action, and O’Malley comes out throwing hands. Munhoz answers him with a barrage of leg kicks from both legs, and he appears fired up and walking O’Malley down. They continue to pepper the lead legs of one another with kicks, and Munhoz fires off a high kick that gets blocked in time. Munhoz bears down on him with a chopping kick, and they add up as O’Malley tries to push him back with jabs. The pink-haired fighter spin with a back kick to the midsection, and Munhoz answers him as he plants down with a thudding kick. Munhoz whiffs on a spin kick, and O’Malley mocks him with a pirouette as the crowd guffaws. The tentative round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley
Round 2
The second frame opens as Munhoz comes out running forward, and he switches stances every single time O’Malley does to mirror his stance and allow him to have effective leg kicks come out. Munhoz misses on a head kick, and a front kick as well as he pulls his leg back and lands awkwardly. O’Malley pokes out a few jabs to little effect, and Munhoz retreats and gets popped with a one-two. O’Malley spins with a wheel kick that just brushes past Munhoz’ hair, and one inch to the right could have spelled problems for the Brazilian. Munhoz kicks the midsection on his way in, and he swipes low with a kick. O’Malley absorbs a kick with an audible thud, and he loads up with a right hand that collides with the guard. O’Malley dings Munhoz with a straight right, and the Brazilian loads up on a low kick in response. Practically all of the strikes landed by “The Young Punisher” are leg kicks, and they are rarely more than single strikes. They continue to connect, and O’Malley, irritated from them, pops out a jab. Munhoz lands a punch, and O’Malley reaches out with his fingers outstretched to jab Munhoz in the eye. Munhoz turns away and tries to clear his vision. Herzog allows him to recover and calls in a doctor to give him more time, Munhoz seems to tell the doctor he cannot see out of his right eye. The doctor helps him wipe his eye, and Munhoz claims that all he sees is black from one eye. With that answer, Herzog and the physician properly call the fight off, as Munhoz cannot continue. This poke ruled an unintentional foul, it will go down as a no contest. This is an unfortunate ending to a competitive and intriguing bout, and hopefully the promotion can run it back in the near future.
The Official Result
Sean O’Malley vs. Pedro Munhoz is ruled a No Contest (Accidental Eye Poke) R2 3:09
Angelo picks Sean O'Malley, citing his accuracy and athletic striking. He believes Munhoz's volume and forward pressure will work against him as O'Malley sticks and moves. He expresses frustration with the matchup, feeling Munhoz is being fed to a rising star, but still sees O'Malley winning a decision.
Big Brady is confident in Sean O'Malley, citing his size, speed, and striking advantage. He notes Munhoz is hittable and absorbs many strikes, but worries about O'Malley's leg kicks and durability. He predicts O'Malley wins by decision, as Munhoz has never been knocked out.
Cody acknowledges Munhoz's path to victory via leg kicks and pressure, but notes Munhoz has declined and lacks wrestling. He thinks O'Malley's reach and speed will be decisive, and that Munhoz hasn't landed a takedown since 2018. He picks O'Malley as the rightful favorite.
Daniel Levi is confident in Sean O'Malley, having bet 5 units to win 2 at -250. He believes O'Malley's height, reach, volume, and stance switching will be too much for Munhoz, who is there to be hit and may be on the decline. Levi dismisses the leg kick narrative, noting that O'Malley can mitigate it by fighting southpaw. He respects Munhoz's guillotine and calf kicks but thinks O'Malley's evolution and youth give him the edge.
O'Malley is faster and more technical, but Munhoz has never been knocked out and has good leg kicks. O'Malley should win by decision, staying on the outside and avoiding leg kicks. The host is not confident in a finish and prefers the decision prop.
Paul agrees with Cody that O'Malley's reach advantage and volume will be key. He notes Munhoz's lack of wrestling makes it hard to back him at +275. He picks O'Malley to win.
The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley, citing his elusiveness, range advantage (7-inch reach), and ability to slow down pressure fighters. He believes Pedro Munhoz has declined and that O'Malley's front kicks and leg kicks will be key. He predicts O'Malley will pick Munhoz apart and win a decision, noting Munhoz's lack of offensive wrestling.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Sean O'Malley, citing his accuracy and athletic striking. He believes Munhoz's volume and forward pressure will work against him as O'Malley sticks and moves. He expresses frustration with the matchup, feeling Munhoz is being fed to a rising star, but still sees O'Malley winning a decision.
Big Brady is confident in Sean O'Malley, citing his size, speed, and striking advantage. He notes Munhoz is hittable and absorbs many strikes, but worries about O'Malley's leg kicks and durability. He predicts O'Malley wins by decision, as Munhoz has never been knocked out.
Cody acknowledges Munhoz's path to victory via leg kicks and pressure, but notes Munhoz has declined and lacks wrestling. He thinks O'Malley's reach and speed will be decisive, and that Munhoz hasn't landed a takedown since 2018. He picks O'Malley as the rightful favorite.
Daniel Levi is confident in Sean O'Malley, having bet 5 units to win 2 at -250. He believes O'Malley's height, reach, volume, and stance switching will be too much for Munhoz, who is there to be hit and may be on the decline. Levi dismisses the leg kick narrative, noting that O'Malley can mitigate it by fighting southpaw. He respects Munhoz's guillotine and calf kicks but thinks O'Malley's evolution and youth give him the edge.
O'Malley is faster and more technical, but Munhoz has never been knocked out and has good leg kicks. O'Malley should win by decision, staying on the outside and avoiding leg kicks. The host is not confident in a finish and prefers the decision prop.
Paul agrees with Cody that O'Malley's reach advantage and volume will be key. He notes Munhoz's lack of wrestling makes it hard to back him at +275. He picks O'Malley to win.
The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley, citing his elusiveness, range advantage (7-inch reach), and ability to slow down pressure fighters. He believes Pedro Munhoz has declined and that O'Malley's front kicks and leg kicks will be key. He predicts O'Malley will pick Munhoz apart and win a decision, noting Munhoz's lack of offensive wrestling.
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