vs
-1250 +870
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024 · Bantamweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria Next Fight
Age 31
Height 5' 7"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 38
Height 5' 6"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Rinya Nakamura
3.27 SLpM
52.0% Str. Acc.
1.72 SApM
63.0% Str. Def.
2.58 TD Avg
81.0% TD Acc.
100.0% TD Def.
1.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Carlos Vera
1.53 SLpM
57.0% Str. Acc.
2.79 SApM
49.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
25.0% TD Def.
1.6 Sub. Avg
Rinya Nakamura
Moneyline
BetRivers -1250
KO/TKO
FanDuel +145
Submission
BetWay +275
Decision
BetRivers +265
Carlos Vera
Moneyline
FanDuel +870
KO/TKO
BetMGM +3000
Submission
FanDuel +2300
Decision
FanDuel +1600
Rinya Nakamura - Fight History
KO/TKO R1 1:02 · UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Aug 02, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rinya Nakamura 1 12 of 19 63% 12 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Nathan Fletcher 0 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rinya Nakamura 1 12 of 19 63% 12 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Nathan Fletcher 0 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rinya Nakamura 12 of 19 63% 6 of 13 4 of 4 2 of 2 8 of 15 0 of 0 4 of 4
Nathan Fletcher 3 of 7 42% 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 5 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rinya Nakamura 12 of 19 63% 6 of 13 4 of 4 2 of 2 8 of 15 0 of 0 4 of 4
Nathan Fletcher 3 of 7 42% 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 5 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Muin Gafurov
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muin Gafurov 0 31 of 73 42% 39 of 82 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:41
Rinya Nakamura 1 37 of 90 41% 73 of 130 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muin Gafurov 0 10 of 24 41% 14 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rinya Nakamura 0 12 of 29 41% 42 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:35
2 Muin Gafurov 0 9 of 24 37% 9 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rinya Nakamura 1 14 of 32 43% 17 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
3 Muin Gafurov 0 12 of 25 48% 16 of 29 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:41
Rinya Nakamura 0 11 of 29 37% 14 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muin Gafurov 31 of 73 42% 10 of 44 8 of 9 13 of 20 28 of 70 3 of 3 0 of 0
Rinya Nakamura 37 of 90 41% 20 of 65 9 of 12 8 of 13 32 of 76 4 of 7 1 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muin Gafurov 10 of 24 41% 0 of 8 3 of 4 7 of 12 10 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rinya Nakamura 12 of 29 41% 6 of 21 3 of 4 3 of 4 11 of 23 0 of 0 1 of 6
2 Muin Gafurov 9 of 24 37% 5 of 18 1 of 1 3 of 5 7 of 22 2 of 2 0 of 0
Rinya Nakamura 14 of 32 43% 10 of 25 2 of 3 2 of 4 10 of 24 4 of 7 0 of 1
3 Muin Gafurov 12 of 25 48% 5 of 18 4 of 4 3 of 3 11 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rinya Nakamura 11 of 29 37% 4 of 19 4 of 5 3 of 5 11 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Angelo is very confident in Rinya Nakamura, highlighting his high-level wrestling, power, and the fact that Muin Gafurov was taken down three times by Kyung Ho Kang. He believes Nakamura's wrestling advantage will be decisive and that the -400 price is justified, unlike other favorites on the card.

"Rena Nakamura is the very confident pick he absolutely gets this done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Cody picks Rinya Nakamura confidently, viewing him as a top prospect. He highlights Nakamura's Olympic-level wrestling, fluid transitions, and improving striking. Cody notes that Gafurov has poor takedown defense and tends to gas, as seen against John Castaneda. Nakamura's wrestling and cardio should be too much. Cody expects Nakamura to take Gafurov down repeatedly and control the fight, possibly earning a finish. Nakamura is part of the Saftic Super Boost.

Mentions submission prop at +575 as a possibility, but not a strong play.
"renho is at the top I I would put Rena right at the top which you most definitely can if you just want to be a little conservative then that's the move"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Daniel picks Nakamura, citing his physicality, strong grappling, and good hands. He notes that Gafurov is well-rounded but lacks athleticism and can be out-hustled. Daniel expects a competitive decision but thinks Nakamura grinds out the win. He is not betting due to the high price.

Daniel says it's a favor to pass situation. He expects Nakamura to grind out a decision.
"I'm gonna take the big favorite here but I do think it could be a competitive decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

The host sees Nakamura as the future of the division, praising his wrestling, chain wrestling, and knockout power. He expects Nakamura to use a combination of those traits to win a decision over Gafurov.

"I think Nakamura is the future of this Division and his wrestling obviously allows him to stay safe in most positions he chain wrestles very well he knows when to implement it and he has huge knockout power I expect …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Nakamura. He notes that Gafurov has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Nakamura's wrestling pedigree is elite. Paul believes Nakamura will find takedowns early and often, banking control time. He also mentions that a submission is possible but not guaranteed. Nakamura is a solid parlay piece for Paul.

No specific prop bet mentioned.
"I like I like Rena as well with you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

The MMA Guru picks Rinya Nakamura but expresses hesitation. He worries about Nakamura's wrestling-heavy style that may not translate to finishes in MMA, similar to Raul Rosas Jr. However, he notes that Muin Gafurov is 'fat and terrible' and that Nakamura has dangerous stand-up with pop on his punches. He also likes that Nakamura had time off to fix issues and expects him to come in good form.

"I'm going to go over R Nakamura I do worry that we are going to see a bit of a more Asian version of a Ral rosis Jr fraud check"
WIN vs Carlos Vera
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rinya Nakamura 0 38 of 70 54% 73 of 114 3 of 3 100% 0 0 13:03
Carlos Vera 0 12 of 25 48% 55 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rinya Nakamura 0 16 of 31 51% 24 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:20
Carlos Vera 0 6 of 8 75% 18 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rinya Nakamura 0 12 of 18 66% 25 of 36 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:34
Carlos Vera 0 2 of 6 33% 15 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rinya Nakamura 0 10 of 21 47% 24 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:09
Carlos Vera 0 4 of 11 36% 22 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rinya Nakamura 38 of 70 54% 30 of 61 6 of 7 2 of 2 7 of 9 1 of 1 30 of 60
Carlos Vera 12 of 25 48% 7 of 19 1 of 2 4 of 4 6 of 15 1 of 2 5 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rinya Nakamura 16 of 31 51% 11 of 26 4 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 28
Carlos Vera 6 of 8 75% 4 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 4
2 Rinya Nakamura 12 of 18 66% 9 of 15 2 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 16
Carlos Vera 2 of 6 33% 1 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 1 1 of 2
3 Rinya Nakamura 10 of 21 47% 10 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 16
Carlos Vera 4 of 11 36% 2 of 8 0 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Angelo calls Rinya Nakamura a lock, citing his high-level wrestling, submissions, and power. He notes Carlos Vera is stepping up on short notice and has poor takedowns. He advises against parlaying Nakamura if the odds are too high, but expects him to win easily.

"Rena is going to be a lock... the wrestling the pressure the grappling awareness is going to be more than enough to get this done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Big Brady picks Rinya Nakamura to win by first-round submission. He calls it a terrible matchup for Carlos Vera, who has poor takedown defense and gives up his back. He expects Nakamura to take him down easily and finish via submission or ground-and-pound. He questions why the fight was sanctioned given the massive favorite line.

Nakamura by submission, round 1
"give me Ren Nakamura here not a hot take he's minus a thousand but you know I think he uh passes this test and that is Carlos Vera so give me Ria Nakamura I'll say first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Cody picks Nakamura, agreeing he is the goods. He notes Nakamura's wrestling and physical strength. He mentions that Vera is a late replacement who lost on TUF and is not UFC caliber. He expects Nakamura to take him down and submit him, though he warns that Fernie Garcia was hard to submit.

Nakamura by submission (suggested prop)
"I got a gut feeling the submission play is on the table because when you look at Carlos Vera he's been submitted before he struggles with Grapplers..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Daniel picks Rinya Nakamura, agreeing with Jeff. He says even if it weren't short notice, Nakamura would be the pick. He doesn't elaborate further, but his agreement is clear.

"obviously Nakamura is is the pick here as well even if it wasn't short notice he would be the pick."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Daniel Vreeland picks Rinya Nakamura, stating he is better everywhere—more explosive, stronger, better striker and grappler. He considers it a mismatch and believes Nakamura can neutralize Vera's opportunistic submissions. He thinks the odds are accurate.

"I think Ren is better everywhere... mismatch."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Jeff picks Rinya Nakamura, stating it's an obvious choice. He notes that Carlos Vera lost to Brad Katona on TUF, getting manhandled. He thinks Vera's tendency to jump guillotine will make Nakamura's takedowns easier. He expects Nakamura to dominate on top and suggests looking at round 1 submission props.

round 1 submission
"Carlos Vera... lost to Brad Katona basically getting manhandled by Brad Katona if you're getting manhandled by Brad Katona you have no hope against Nakamura."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Nakamura is a high-level wrestler with Olympic pedigree, but has relied on power punching recently. He has all advantages over the 36-year-old debuting Vera. Expects Nakamura to go 9-0 with an early stoppage.

"I expect him to go 9 and0 this weekend with another early stoppage"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Paul picks Nakamura, calling him the best prospect from Road to UFC. He notes Nakamura's wrestling accolades, power, and grappling. He sees Vera as a 36-year-old debutant who lost on TUF and is being fed to Nakamura. He suggests a submission prop, as Vera has been submitted before and gives up his back.

Nakamura by submission (suggested prop)
"Ren is the pick but is there value on a minus 900?"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

The MMA Guru picks Rinya Nakamura, citing his superior grappling potential and dangerous striking. He criticizes Carlos Vera as an older fighter who shouldn't be in the UFC. He predicts Nakamura could get a KO early or a ground-and-pound decision, though he notes Nakamura needs to work on finishing from dominant positions.

"I'm just gonna have to side with the grappling of Rinya Nakamura... this old man ain't beating Rinya Nakamura."
WIN vs Fernie Garcia
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · Aug 26, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rinya Nakamura 0 36 of 57 63% 56 of 84 4 of 4 100% 3 0 9:26
Fernie Garcia 0 15 of 66 22% 50 of 106 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rinya Nakamura 0 9 of 13 69% 17 of 25 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:55
Fernie Garcia 0 3 of 8 37% 21 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rinya Nakamura 0 11 of 22 50% 17 of 29 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:31
Fernie Garcia 0 6 of 28 21% 16 of 39 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
3 Rinya Nakamura 0 16 of 22 72% 22 of 30 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:00
Fernie Garcia 0 6 of 30 20% 13 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rinya Nakamura 36 of 57 63% 16 of 31 10 of 13 10 of 13 25 of 44 0 of 0 11 of 13
Fernie Garcia 15 of 66 22% 9 of 53 4 of 7 2 of 6 13 of 63 0 of 1 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rinya Nakamura 9 of 13 69% 3 of 5 4 of 6 2 of 2 4 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 7
Fernie Garcia 3 of 8 37% 2 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 2 1 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 2
2 Rinya Nakamura 11 of 22 50% 5 of 14 3 of 3 3 of 5 8 of 19 0 of 0 3 of 3
Fernie Garcia 6 of 28 21% 3 of 22 1 of 3 2 of 3 6 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Rinya Nakamura 16 of 22 72% 8 of 12 3 of 4 5 of 6 13 of 19 0 of 0 3 of 3
Fernie Garcia 6 of 30 20% 4 of 26 2 of 3 0 of 1 6 of 29 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Angelo believes Nakamura is a high-level wrestler with powerful striking and should dominate Garcia. He notes that Nakamura is a -700 favorite, but he personally avoids betting such heavy favorites due to the risk, citing examples like Valentina Shevchenko losing as a huge favorite. He thinks Nakamura wins 99 out of 100 times but won't lay the price.

"ring is going to dominate if you want to lay out 700 bucks to win 100 or 7 000 win a thousand go for it it should cash but I'd rather not part with that much money"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Big Brady is very high on Rinya Nakamura, calling him a future star with excellent wrestling, grappling, and power. He sees this as a terrible matchup for Fernie Garcia, who was dominated by a lesser wrestler in Brady Hiestand. He expects Nakamura to finish the fight in the first round, whether by knockout or submission, and criticizes the matchmaking.

first round finish
"I think Nakamura is the future I really do and I think he goes out there and styles on Fernie Garcia and gets it done in round one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Cody is high on Nakamura as a top prospect with elite wrestling and improving striking. He expects Nakamura to dominate Garcia, who has shown poor takedown defense. Cody likes the submission prop at plus 275, noting Nakamura's grappling pedigree.

Nakamura by submission +275
"renya Nakamura is going to win him by sub at 275"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Daniel picks Rinya Nakamura, citing his Olympic-level wrestling and power. He notes that Nakamura can fall back on his wrestling if the striking gets tough, and that Garcia is a liability on the ground. He mentions that Garcia has heavy hands but low output and poor takedown defense. He is confident Nakamura wins, though he notes that Nakamura sometimes gets clipped standing.

"I think renya is one of the better Japanese prospects and you know I I'm picking him to win here it's just the question is knock out submission or decision"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 26, 2023 (fight day)
Rinya Nakamura

James is confident Nakamura wins but does not bet due to the short odds. He notes Nakamura is a brutal round one finisher but warns that the fight could go to decision if Nakamura wrestles. He sees Garcia as a tough guy who can survive, and considers the over 1.5 rounds at +150 as a potential play, though he ultimately passes.

over 1.5 rounds at +150 considered but not bet
"I think renya is going to win the fight handedly"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

The host highlights Nakamura's wrestling background and finishing ability, noting he has finished all but one opponent. He expects Nakamura to take Garcia down easily, as Garcia has struggled with wrestlers before (e.g., Brady Hiestand). The host predicts a finish within the first two rounds and likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.

under 2.5 rounds
"I expect him to get a finish within the first two rounds so give me renya Nakamura to dominate and continue his reign of success."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Paul agrees Nakamura is a huge favorite and a setup fight by the UFC. He notes Nakamura's wrestling and physicality will be too much for Garcia. Paul expects a win but is cautious about the price, suggesting a decision or submission.

"huge favorite absolutely huge favorite and at least Max always a proven commodity and this kid is not a proven commodity"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

The MMA Guru picks Rinya Nakamura as the lock of the card, predicting a first-round knockout of Fernie Garcia. He praises Nakamura's wrestling background, KO power, and chin, calling him one of the best prospects. He dismisses Garcia as a 31-year-old on a two-fight losing streak. He believes Nakamura has advantages in wrestling, stand-up, power, and chin, and will smoke Garcia in the first two minutes.

KO in round 1 predicted; lock of the card
"I think that actually is my look at a card ... ring in akamura is going to smoke him in the first two minutes I really believe"
KO (punch) R1 0:33 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac · Feb 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rinya Nakamura 0 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Toshiomi Kazama 2 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rinya Nakamura 0 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Toshiomi Kazama 2 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rinya Nakamura 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Toshiomi Kazama 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 10 of 24 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rinya Nakamura 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Toshiomi Kazama 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 10 of 24 0 of 0 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Big Brady is high on Nakamura's world-class wrestling and knockout power. He thinks Kazama will struggle to take down a wrestler of Nakamura's caliber and will be knocked out early. He predicts a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"I like him to knock out toshiom in the very first round here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Cody picks Nakamura inside the distance, calling him the best prospect on the card. He notes Nakamura's world-class wrestling pedigree and finishing ability. He expects Nakamura to take Kazama down and finish, possibly by submission. He also considers a small sprinkle on Nakamura by submission at +800.

Nakamura inside the distance (-125); Nakamura by submission (+800 sprinkle)
"I took renya Nakamura inside the distance at minus 125... I'm considering adding him by submission because that's like plus 800"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Connor agrees, noting that Kazama's insistence on wrestling will play into Nakamura's strengths. He points out that Kazama's bag of tricks may not work against a superior athlete, and that Nakamura has shown rapid improvement. He sees this as a winnable matchup for Nakamura to showcase his development.

"It's easy to see why this is the big favorite matchup."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Paul picks Nakamura inside the distance, emphasizing his wrestling background and MMA upbringing. He notes Nakamura's ability to strike or grapple, and expects him to knock out Kazama. He thinks Kazama's guard-pulling style will not work against Nakamura's physicality.

"I think I think Nakamura knocks him out um doesn't submit him but either way we both like them we both like them inside the distance"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Zane highlights Nakamura's rapid improvement and wrestling background, noting that he has become a more aggressive combination puncher with natural instincts for pressuring. He contrasts this with Kazama, who is crafty but not a great athlete and tends to lose wrestling exchanges as fights go on. He believes Nakamura's higher ceiling and athleticism will prevail.

"A pretty straightforward pick for uh, the the super prospect in nakamura, yeah."
Carlos Vera - Fight History
WIN vs Josias Musasa
Submission R1 3:16 · UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Vera 1 16 of 24 66% 18 of 26 0 of 2 0% 2 0 0:14
Josias Musasa 0 13 of 31 41% 13 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Vera 1 16 of 24 66% 18 of 26 0 of 2 0% 2 0 0:14
Josias Musasa 0 13 of 31 41% 13 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Vera 16 of 24 66% 3 of 10 3 of 3 10 of 11 16 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josias Musasa 13 of 31 41% 3 of 13 0 of 2 10 of 16 13 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Vera 16 of 24 66% 3 of 10 3 of 3 10 of 11 16 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josias Musasa 13 of 31 41% 3 of 13 0 of 2 10 of 16 13 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Josias Musasa

Angelo picks Josias Musasa over Carlos Vera. He highlights Musasa's fight-ending power and forward pressure, but warns that he may punch himself out. He notes that Vera is tough and has good BJJ, so if Musasa fades, Vera could take over. He is not sure if he will bet this fight.

"Josias is going to be the pick because of how insanely dangerous he is but my warning to you is very possible that Josiah punches himself out."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Josias Musasa

Big Brady picks Josias Musasa but is not fully sold on him, calling him still very green. He thinks the matchup is favorable for Musasa because Carlos Vera is a 37-year-old who often pulls guard and goes for leg locks, which could play into Musasa's strengths. Brady expects Musasa to win by knockout, likely in the second round, but notes the -650 odds are ridiculous for a fighter he's not completely confident in.

Musasa second round knockout
"musasa by knockout makes sense to me... give me musasa second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Cody picks Josiane Nunes, citing her wrestling advantage and size. He notes that Priscila Cachoeira has poor takedown defense and has been taken down repeatedly. He believes Nunes will control the fight with takedowns and ground control, though he is emotionally conflicted about fading Cachoeira.

"Edwards is the pick. I'm sorry."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Josias Musasa

The host believes Musasa's power and explosiveness will be too much for Vera, though the odds are wide. He is intrigued by the Vera by submission prop but still picks Musasa by knockout.

Vera by submission prop mentioned as intriguing, but host picks Musasa by knockout
"I believe his power and his explosiveness is going to be too much for Vera although the odds are a little bit wide and I am intrigued by the Vera by submission prop I think musasa still comes out Victorious …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Paul also picks Nunes, noting Cachoeira's lack of takedown defense and Nunes's size and strength. He believes Nunes will take her down repeatedly and control the fight. He mentions that Cachoeira has power but will be neutralized by wrestling.

"I gota take Josyn Edwards as well. CF do model's tempting because this is a wide number for a women's MMA fight, but I just think styles make fights and this is a great style clash for her."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Josias Musasa

The MMA Guru confidently picks Josias Musasa to win by first-round TKO. He criticizes Carlos Vera as being 37 years old, on a two-fight losing streak, and not impressive. He praises Musasa's finishing potential on the feet and his ability to get back up from takedowns, as shown in his Contender Series fight against a Georgian grappler. He believes Musasa will finish Vera easily on the feet.

First round TKO
"I'm gonna say first round T TKO for Josias musasa but even if he doesn't get a first round TKO against the Georgian dude on the contender series that had a good grappling background he showed great ability to get …"
LOSS vs Rinya Nakamura
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rinya Nakamura 0 38 of 70 54% 73 of 114 3 of 3 100% 0 0 13:03
Carlos Vera 0 12 of 25 48% 55 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rinya Nakamura 0 16 of 31 51% 24 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:20
Carlos Vera 0 6 of 8 75% 18 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rinya Nakamura 0 12 of 18 66% 25 of 36 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:34
Carlos Vera 0 2 of 6 33% 15 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rinya Nakamura 0 10 of 21 47% 24 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:09
Carlos Vera 0 4 of 11 36% 22 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rinya Nakamura 38 of 70 54% 30 of 61 6 of 7 2 of 2 7 of 9 1 of 1 30 of 60
Carlos Vera 12 of 25 48% 7 of 19 1 of 2 4 of 4 6 of 15 1 of 2 5 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rinya Nakamura 16 of 31 51% 11 of 26 4 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 28
Carlos Vera 6 of 8 75% 4 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 4
2 Rinya Nakamura 12 of 18 66% 9 of 15 2 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 16
Carlos Vera 2 of 6 33% 1 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 1 1 of 2
3 Rinya Nakamura 10 of 21 47% 10 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 16
Carlos Vera 4 of 11 36% 2 of 8 0 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Angelo calls Rinya Nakamura a lock, citing his high-level wrestling, submissions, and power. He notes Carlos Vera is stepping up on short notice and has poor takedowns. He advises against parlaying Nakamura if the odds are too high, but expects him to win easily.

"Rena is going to be a lock... the wrestling the pressure the grappling awareness is going to be more than enough to get this done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Big Brady picks Rinya Nakamura to win by first-round submission. He calls it a terrible matchup for Carlos Vera, who has poor takedown defense and gives up his back. He expects Nakamura to take him down easily and finish via submission or ground-and-pound. He questions why the fight was sanctioned given the massive favorite line.

Nakamura by submission, round 1
"give me Ren Nakamura here not a hot take he's minus a thousand but you know I think he uh passes this test and that is Carlos Vera so give me Ria Nakamura I'll say first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Cody picks Nakamura, agreeing he is the goods. He notes Nakamura's wrestling and physical strength. He mentions that Vera is a late replacement who lost on TUF and is not UFC caliber. He expects Nakamura to take him down and submit him, though he warns that Fernie Garcia was hard to submit.

Nakamura by submission (suggested prop)
"I got a gut feeling the submission play is on the table because when you look at Carlos Vera he's been submitted before he struggles with Grapplers..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Daniel Vreeland picks Rinya Nakamura, stating he is better everywhere—more explosive, stronger, better striker and grappler. He considers it a mismatch and believes Nakamura can neutralize Vera's opportunistic submissions. He thinks the odds are accurate.

"I think Ren is better everywhere... mismatch."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Daniel picks Rinya Nakamura, agreeing with Jeff. He says even if it weren't short notice, Nakamura would be the pick. He doesn't elaborate further, but his agreement is clear.

"obviously Nakamura is is the pick here as well even if it wasn't short notice he would be the pick."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Jeff picks Rinya Nakamura, stating it's an obvious choice. He notes that Carlos Vera lost to Brad Katona on TUF, getting manhandled. He thinks Vera's tendency to jump guillotine will make Nakamura's takedowns easier. He expects Nakamura to dominate on top and suggests looking at round 1 submission props.

round 1 submission
"Carlos Vera... lost to Brad Katona basically getting manhandled by Brad Katona if you're getting manhandled by Brad Katona you have no hope against Nakamura."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Nakamura is a high-level wrestler with Olympic pedigree, but has relied on power punching recently. He has all advantages over the 36-year-old debuting Vera. Expects Nakamura to go 9-0 with an early stoppage.

"I expect him to go 9 and0 this weekend with another early stoppage"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Paul picks Nakamura, calling him the best prospect from Road to UFC. He notes Nakamura's wrestling accolades, power, and grappling. He sees Vera as a 36-year-old debutant who lost on TUF and is being fed to Nakamura. He suggests a submission prop, as Vera has been submitted before and gives up his back.

Nakamura by submission (suggested prop)
"Ren is the pick but is there value on a minus 900?"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

The MMA Guru picks Rinya Nakamura, citing his superior grappling potential and dangerous striking. He criticizes Carlos Vera as an older fighter who shouldn't be in the UFC. He predicts Nakamura could get a KO early or a ground-and-pound decision, though he notes Nakamura needs to work on finishing from dominant positions.

"I'm just gonna have to side with the grappling of Rinya Nakamura... this old man ain't beating Rinya Nakamura."
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Angelo calls Rinya Nakamura a lock, citing his high-level wrestling, submissions, and power. He notes Carlos Vera is stepping up on short notice and has poor takedowns. He advises against parlaying Nakamura if the odds are too high, but expects him to win easily.

"Rena is going to be a lock... the wrestling the pressure the grappling awareness is going to be more than enough to get this done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Big Brady picks Rinya Nakamura to win by first-round submission. He calls it a terrible matchup for Carlos Vera, who has poor takedown defense and gives up his back. He expects Nakamura to take him down easily and finish via submission or ground-and-pound. He questions why the fight was sanctioned given the massive favorite line.

Nakamura by submission, round 1
"give me Ren Nakamura here not a hot take he's minus a thousand but you know I think he uh passes this test and that is Carlos Vera so give me Ria Nakamura I'll say first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Cody picks Nakamura, agreeing he is the goods. He notes Nakamura's wrestling and physical strength. He mentions that Vera is a late replacement who lost on TUF and is not UFC caliber. He expects Nakamura to take him down and submit him, though he warns that Fernie Garcia was hard to submit.

Nakamura by submission (suggested prop)
"I got a gut feeling the submission play is on the table because when you look at Carlos Vera he's been submitted before he struggles with Grapplers..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Daniel picks Rinya Nakamura, agreeing with Jeff. He says even if it weren't short notice, Nakamura would be the pick. He doesn't elaborate further, but his agreement is clear.

"obviously Nakamura is is the pick here as well even if it wasn't short notice he would be the pick."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Daniel Vreeland picks Rinya Nakamura, stating he is better everywhere—more explosive, stronger, better striker and grappler. He considers it a mismatch and believes Nakamura can neutralize Vera's opportunistic submissions. He thinks the odds are accurate.

"I think Ren is better everywhere... mismatch."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Jeff picks Rinya Nakamura, stating it's an obvious choice. He notes that Carlos Vera lost to Brad Katona on TUF, getting manhandled. He thinks Vera's tendency to jump guillotine will make Nakamura's takedowns easier. He expects Nakamura to dominate on top and suggests looking at round 1 submission props.

round 1 submission
"Carlos Vera... lost to Brad Katona basically getting manhandled by Brad Katona if you're getting manhandled by Brad Katona you have no hope against Nakamura."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Nakamura is a high-level wrestler with Olympic pedigree, but has relied on power punching recently. He has all advantages over the 36-year-old debuting Vera. Expects Nakamura to go 9-0 with an early stoppage.

"I expect him to go 9 and0 this weekend with another early stoppage"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Paul picks Nakamura, calling him the best prospect from Road to UFC. He notes Nakamura's wrestling accolades, power, and grappling. He sees Vera as a 36-year-old debutant who lost on TUF and is being fed to Nakamura. He suggests a submission prop, as Vera has been submitted before and gives up his back.

Nakamura by submission (suggested prop)
"Ren is the pick but is there value on a minus 900?"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

The MMA Guru picks Rinya Nakamura, citing his superior grappling potential and dangerous striking. He criticizes Carlos Vera as an older fighter who shouldn't be in the UFC. He predicts Nakamura could get a KO early or a ground-and-pound decision, though he notes Nakamura needs to work on finishing from dominant positions.

"I'm just gonna have to side with the grappling of Rinya Nakamura... this old man ain't beating Rinya Nakamura."