vs
-275 +250
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024 · Bantamweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria Next Fight
Age 35
Height 5' 6"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 39
Height 5' 4"
Reach 64.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Merab Dvalishvili
4.42 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
2.8 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
5.97 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
76.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Henry Cejudo
3.83 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
3.84 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
1.78 TD Avg
29.0% TD Acc.
72.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Merab Dvalishvili
Moneyline
BetWay -275
KO/TKO
FanDuel +550
Submission
BetWay +1800
Decision
FanDuel -140
Henry Cejudo
Moneyline
Caesars +250
KO/TKO
FanDuel +750
Submission
DraftKings +2000
Decision
BetMGM +450
Merab Dvalishvili - Fight History
LOSS vs Petr Yan
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 134 of 383 34% 196 of 458 2 of 29 6% 2 1 5:12
Petr Yan 0 139 of 230 60% 159 of 251 5 of 9 55% 0 0 2:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 22 of 68 32% 40 of 87 0 of 8 0% 0 0 1:33
Petr Yan 0 17 of 32 53% 23 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 19 of 73 26% 41 of 97 0 of 5 0% 0 1 2:06
Petr Yan 0 21 of 34 61% 25 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:34
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 21 of 62 33% 32 of 77 2 of 7 28% 0 0 1:07
Petr Yan 0 25 of 46 54% 33 of 55 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:19
4 Merab Dvalishvili 0 37 of 71 52% 43 of 80 0 of 4 0% 1 0 0:15
Petr Yan 0 38 of 55 69% 40 of 57 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:14
5 Merab Dvalishvili 0 35 of 109 32% 40 of 117 0 of 5 0% 1 0 0:11
Petr Yan 0 38 of 63 60% 38 of 63 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 134 of 383 34% 105 of 341 22 of 34 7 of 8 116 of 353 18 of 30 0 of 0
Petr Yan 139 of 230 60% 109 of 195 17 of 19 13 of 16 119 of 204 18 of 24 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 22 of 68 32% 16 of 60 4 of 6 2 of 2 18 of 63 4 of 5 0 of 0
Petr Yan 17 of 32 53% 15 of 30 1 of 1 1 of 1 17 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 19 of 73 26% 19 of 71 0 of 2 0 of 0 17 of 69 2 of 4 0 of 0
Petr Yan 21 of 34 61% 18 of 31 1 of 1 2 of 2 21 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 21 of 62 33% 18 of 57 3 of 5 0 of 0 15 of 52 6 of 10 0 of 0
Petr Yan 25 of 46 54% 20 of 40 5 of 6 0 of 0 16 of 34 7 of 10 2 of 2
4 Merab Dvalishvili 37 of 71 52% 28 of 60 7 of 8 2 of 3 34 of 67 3 of 4 0 of 0
Petr Yan 38 of 55 69% 28 of 44 6 of 6 4 of 5 32 of 48 6 of 7 0 of 0
5 Merab Dvalishvili 35 of 109 32% 24 of 93 8 of 13 3 of 3 32 of 102 3 of 7 0 of 0
Petr Yan 38 of 63 60% 28 of 50 4 of 5 6 of 8 33 of 57 5 of 6 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili, emphasizing his insane pace, cardio, and improvement since the first fight. He questions what has changed for Petr Yan to win the rematch, noting that Merab dominated the first fight with 11 takedowns. He believes Merab's pressure and takedowns will be too much for Yan again, and he is surprised the odds are only -450.

"I'm on the Morab side. I think the insane pressure, the insane cardio, all the things that have him nicknamed the machine have him win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Big Brady picks Merab Dvalishvili, noting his dominant performance in the first fight. He acknowledges Yan may have been compromised but still favors Dvalishvili's wrestling and pace. He expects Dvalishvili to win by decision, as he always does.

Dvalishvili by decision
"I'm going to take Morad Deval Philly to win this fight how he always wins fights and that is going to be by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Cody is fully behind Merab, citing his relentless wrestling and pace. He notes that Merab took Yan down 11 times in their first fight and has since dominated Olympic gold medalist Cejudo and Umar. He believes Merab will again win by decision, as Yan is durable and hard to finish. He mentions the decision prop at minus 300 but prefers the money line.

"Morab does what Morab does. And frankly, this is like such a lame kind of breakdown, I suppose, from me, but it's like until I'm going to just keep putting money on Morab."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Connor argues that Merab has only improved since their first fight, becoming a more purposeful striker who uses takedown threats effectively. He notes that Petr Yan has lost the aggressive instinct that once allowed him to change fights with single shots, and now fights more cautiously, which plays into Merab's relentless pace. Connor believes Yan's multi-stage game can be disrupted by Merab's constant pressure, making it hard for Yan to build initiative. He concludes that while Yan has the power to win, it's a lot to gamble on.

Odds: Merab opened -260, now -415; Yan opened +220, now +315. Notes that Yan hasn't stopped anyone in 5 years and hasn't scored a knockdown since the Sandhagen fight.
"You have to pick Merab. High-level fight. Meaningful."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Daniel believes Merab's relentless pace and takedown volume will overwhelm Petr Yan, who tends to take rounds off to make reads. He notes Merab's improvements since their first fight, including 20 takedowns against Cory Sandhagen. Daniel doubts Yan can bridge the output gap and sees Merab as the clear best bantamweight. He mentions the fight is a pass for betting due to poor odds on Merab.

"I'm picking Morab in this spot, man. I really am."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Lucrative James acknowledges Merab's dominance but believes the betting line of -450 is too wide. He notes Petr Yan was likely injured in the first fight and has had time to recover. He thinks Yan can compete in minutes and moments, potentially squeaking out a decision win. He emphasizes value betting and picks Yan at +350 odds.

"I'm going to go out and say that Peter Yan is the betting pick for this show for me for this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

The host notes that Dvalishvili won the first fight easily as a +250 underdog and is now a -450 favorite for good reason. He expects Yan to be more aggressive but believes Dvalishvili's pace, pressure, and activity will make it hard for Yan to land impactful shots, leading to a decision win for Dvalishvili.

win by decision; odds comment: plus 250 underdog first fight, now minus 450 favorite
"Jan might be a little bit more aggressive this time around but I think Dvalish Philly will make it hard for Yan to land an impactful enough shot... win this fight on the scorecards and still bantamweight champion."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Merab's wrestling and decision victory. He points out that Yan has lost rounds to lesser fighters like Song Dong and Marcus McGhee, while Merab has only improved. He notes that Yan is a slow starter and Merab's pressure negates his striking combinations. He concludes that Merab by decision is the play.

"He got 50-45 to cross the board on all three judges scorecards. On top of that, he got taken down 11 times."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

The Guru picks Merab Dvalishvili over Petr Yan, despite the wide odds. He notes Merab's relentless takedown volume and cardio will overwhelm Yan, though Yan will have moments. The Guru predicts a 48-47 decision for Merab.

"I've got Morab 48 47, man."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that Merab's style heavily favors him. He points out that Yan's game relies on building initiative through counter-punching and then pressuring, but Merab never allows that foothold. Zane notes that even when Yan defends takedowns well, Merab's constant attacks prevent Yan from establishing his own offense. He highlights that Yan's last three fights show a loss of confidence and aggression, making it unlikely he can replicate the moments of violence that defined his prime.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"It's really hard to see a version of this where Merab just doesn't get..."
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 320 · Oct 04, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 114 of 265 43% 243 of 399 20 of 37 54% 0 0 10:02
Cory Sandhagen 0 80 of 184 43% 149 of 257 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 11 of 46 23% 32 of 67 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:52
Cory Sandhagen 0 27 of 53 50% 58 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 33 of 49 67% 73 of 92 8 of 13 61% 0 0 3:43
Cory Sandhagen 0 2 of 9 22% 23 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 15 of 48 31% 46 of 80 3 of 8 37% 0 0 1:57
Cory Sandhagen 0 14 of 35 40% 24 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Merab Dvalishvili 0 21 of 56 37% 31 of 66 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:26
Cory Sandhagen 0 19 of 43 44% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Merab Dvalishvili 0 34 of 66 51% 61 of 94 6 of 8 75% 0 0 2:04
Cory Sandhagen 0 18 of 44 40% 23 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 114 of 265 43% 86 of 231 13 of 18 15 of 16 79 of 220 22 of 27 13 of 18
Cory Sandhagen 80 of 184 43% 46 of 143 18 of 23 16 of 18 80 of 184 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 11 of 46 23% 9 of 42 0 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 27 of 53 50% 14 of 39 4 of 4 9 of 10 27 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 33 of 49 67% 33 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0 16 of 25 8 of 10 9 of 14
Cory Sandhagen 2 of 9 22% 1 of 6 0 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 15 of 48 31% 12 of 44 1 of 2 2 of 2 13 of 45 2 of 3 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 14 of 35 40% 7 of 28 4 of 4 3 of 3 14 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Merab Dvalishvili 21 of 56 37% 9 of 42 5 of 6 7 of 8 17 of 52 4 of 4 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 19 of 43 44% 12 of 34 4 of 5 3 of 4 19 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Merab Dvalishvili 34 of 66 51% 23 of 54 7 of 8 4 of 4 23 of 53 7 of 9 4 of 4
Cory Sandhagen 18 of 44 40% 12 of 36 6 of 8 0 of 0 18 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili, acknowledging that Cory Sandhagen is a tough matchup with good skills everywhere. He believes Merab's non-stop chain wrestling and cardio are his biggest weapons, and that Sandhagen is better than Sean O'Malley but still likely to lose. He notes that Sandhagen's cardio slowed against Umar, and that Merab's pressure will be overwhelming.

"Morab's going to be the pick, but I'm not dismissing Cory Sanhagen's ability to make this an ugly fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Big Brady thinks the fight will be competitive but clear in favor of Dvalishvili. He notes that Sandhagen has advantages in height, reach, and striking, but Dvalishvili's wrestling and ability to dictate where the fight takes place will be key. He expects Dvalishvili to win by decision, possibly 49-46 or 48-47. He does not like the line but is not picking against Dvalishvili.

Merab Dvalishvili by decision.
"I like Morav to get it done. I just I just really don't like the line. But give me Rob by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Connor picks Dvalishvili, agreeing with Zane that Sandhagen's physicality is a major concern. He highlights that Sandhagen's best path is to pressure Merab and keep him on the back foot, but even then, Merab's wrestling and durability make it hard to win a decision. Connor also notes that Sandhagen lacks finishing power at the highest level, making it unlikely he stops Merab.

"Yeah, you really do. So yeah, I'm glad they made this fight. I don't think it'll be boring, but I just do not at my core believe that Corey Sandhagen can go out there and fight a busy fight without …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Merab Dvalishvili

The host expects a classic Dvalishvili performance with takedowns and control time, possibly threatening submissions, but Sandhagen will be too slippery to catch, leading to a decision win for Dvalishvili.

"I think we'll see a classic Dvalishvili performance here where he will get his takedowns, he'll get his control time... I think Sandhagen will be too slimy to catch in anything of substance and that will lead to Dvalishvili winning …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

The MMA Guru picks Merab Dvalishvili, citing his relentless pace, takedowns, and improving striking. He notes Cory Sandhagen's lack of finishing ability and tendency to leave fights close. He predicts a 49-46 or 48-47 decision.

"I'm going with Merab. Sandhagen's good. I think he'll do better than O'Malley in the rematch. We're looking at a decision here. 48-47, 49-46 Merab."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Zane picks Dvalishvili because he believes Sandhagen lacks the physicality to consistently win scrambles and wrestling exchanges against Merab. He notes that Sandhagen has struggled against elite wrestlers like Umar Nurmagomedov and that Merab's endless cardio and improved striking make him a nightmare matchup. Zane also points out that even if Sandhagen has a good round or two, he is unlikely to finish Merab and will likely be worn down over five rounds.

"I just cannot fundamentally believe that Corey Sandhagen has the physicality at a very raw base level to tie up with Marabh Dvala Shavili all the time."
WIN vs Sean O'Malley
Submission R3 4:42 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 52 of 115 45% 141 of 215 5 of 12 41% 1 0 6:29
Sean O'Malley 0 31 of 57 54% 38 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 17 of 37 45% 48 of 72 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:54
Sean O'Malley 0 12 of 23 52% 16 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 23 of 63 36% 24 of 64 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:17
Sean O'Malley 0 19 of 33 57% 19 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 12 of 15 80% 69 of 79 3 of 4 75% 1 0 4:18
Sean O'Malley 0 0 of 1 0% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 52 of 115 45% 33 of 92 13 of 14 6 of 9 29 of 86 8 of 10 15 of 19
Sean O'Malley 31 of 57 54% 14 of 35 15 of 19 2 of 3 30 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 17 of 37 45% 10 of 30 7 of 7 0 of 0 9 of 27 3 of 3 5 of 7
Sean O'Malley 12 of 23 52% 5 of 15 6 of 7 1 of 1 11 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 23 of 63 36% 18 of 54 1 of 2 4 of 7 20 of 58 3 of 5 0 of 0
Sean O'Malley 19 of 33 57% 9 of 19 9 of 12 1 of 2 19 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 12 of 15 80% 5 of 8 5 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 1 2 of 2 10 of 12
Sean O'Malley 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Angelo believes the first fight was a clear win for Merab, not close as some recall. He thinks Sean's camp is already making excuses by calling Merab the GOAT. He sees no significant improvements from Sean and expects the same pressure wrestling and cardio to overwhelm Sean again. He dismisses concerns about Merab's toe injury as irrelevant.

Odds at 3 to 1 feel like a gift.
"Morav Dishley is going to be the pick. I'm not worried about the toe nonsense."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Big Brady picks Merab Dvalishvili but is very hesitant. He believes Merab should win easily based on his wrestling, but worries about corrupt judges giving rounds to O'Malley if the fight is close. He notes that O'Malley was compromised in the first fight and that the UFC wants O'Malley to win. He ultimately goes with his gut that Merab gets it done by decision, but hates the price tag and suggests O'Malley plus 5.5 might be a good look.

O'Malley +5.5 mentioned as a good look
"I'll take Morab to win this fight by decision because I think he wins the fight."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Merab. He emphasizes that O'Malley's instinctual reactions in wrestling are a deep-seated issue that will be hard to overcome. Connor notes that O'Malley's go-to defense of giving up his back and handfighting works against lesser wrestlers but is suicide against Merab. He thinks O'Malley can improve but still loses.

Odds: Merab -254, O'Malley +234. Connor is surprised the line is not wider.
"I got to pick Marab still."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Dvalishvili's high pressure, high pace, and insane cardio are too much for most opponents. Even if O'Malley learned from their first matchup, he won't be able to set up his traps or striking wizardry. Dvalishvili will control the fight, grind it out, and win on the scorecards to remain champion.

"Dvalesh Philly is just too much for a lot of his opponents and not many guys are able to deal with this high pressure high pace and just insane cardio style... allowing Dvalis Philly to control fights as he always …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley to win by TKO or decision, citing adjustments and O'Malley's freshness. He believes the first fight was close and O'Malley can improve his takedown defense. He notes Merab's activity and lack of motivation, and thinks O'Malley's striking will be the difference. He predicts O'Malley wins rounds 1, 3, and 5, and possibly gets a TKO in the second or third round. He also mentions potential judging favoritism for O'Malley.

Odds comment: +260 is great value. Finish prediction: TKO in second or third round, or decision win.
"I'm feeling a Shaun Ali upset TKO finish over Morab Dealin."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Zane picks Merab Dvalishvili, noting that O'Malley's wrestling defense is fundamentally flawed against Merab's relentless pressure. He believes O'Malley will be better prepared but still expects Merab to force him into a defensive shell and win via pace and takedowns. Zane references the Umar fight as evidence that Merab can be pushed but still wins.

Odds: Merab -254, O'Malley +234. Zane is surprised the line is not wider, expecting Merab around -400.
"I got to pick Marab still."
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 111 of 259 42% 142 of 293 7 of 30 23% 0 0 2:22
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 104 of 237 43% 113 of 246 2 of 15 13% 0 0 1:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 20 of 47 42% 21 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 18 of 49 36% 18 of 49 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 20 of 49 40% 27 of 58 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:15
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 25 of 47 53% 26 of 48 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:48
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 21 of 54 38% 25 of 58 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:07
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 22 of 48 45% 25 of 51 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:43
4 Merab Dvalishvili 0 36 of 70 51% 48 of 82 4 of 9 44% 0 0 1:05
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 21 of 47 44% 26 of 52 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:04
5 Merab Dvalishvili 0 14 of 39 35% 21 of 47 2 of 12 16% 0 0 0:53
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 18 of 46 39% 18 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 111 of 259 42% 71 of 207 30 of 37 10 of 15 88 of 219 22 of 37 1 of 3
Umar Nurmagomedov 104 of 237 43% 76 of 199 22 of 30 6 of 8 92 of 219 12 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 20 of 47 42% 10 of 35 6 of 6 4 of 6 13 of 39 7 of 8 0 of 0
Umar Nurmagomedov 18 of 49 36% 11 of 38 7 of 11 0 of 0 16 of 47 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 20 of 49 40% 12 of 37 7 of 10 1 of 2 15 of 38 5 of 10 0 of 1
Umar Nurmagomedov 25 of 47 53% 18 of 38 6 of 8 1 of 1 17 of 37 8 of 10 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 21 of 54 38% 14 of 43 5 of 7 2 of 4 17 of 49 3 of 4 1 of 1
Umar Nurmagomedov 22 of 48 45% 17 of 40 2 of 3 3 of 5 20 of 43 2 of 5 0 of 0
4 Merab Dvalishvili 36 of 70 51% 25 of 57 10 of 12 1 of 1 31 of 58 5 of 11 0 of 1
Umar Nurmagomedov 21 of 47 44% 18 of 44 2 of 2 1 of 1 21 of 46 0 of 1 0 of 0
5 Merab Dvalishvili 14 of 39 35% 10 of 35 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 35 2 of 4 0 of 0
Umar Nurmagomedov 18 of 46 39% 12 of 39 5 of 6 1 of 1 18 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov, citing his superior wrestling and striking compared to Merab Dvalishvili. He believes Umar's kicks and range management will keep Merab at bay, and his scramble skills will neutralize Merab's takedown attempts. He notes that Merab's cardio is a factor but thinks Umar's overall skills will win out.

"Umar is going to be the pick I will kind of warn you here minus 325 I mean it's a bit disrespectful to morab"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody picks Umar Nurmagomedov but is hesitant due to the price. He believes Umar has the style to beat Merab, with superior wrestling and striking, and can thwart takedowns. However, he notes Merab's incredible pace and durability, and that Umar's line is too high. Cody also points out that Merab has been taken down before and struggles off his back, but Umar's lack of top competition and the value on Merab give him pause.

Mentions he took Merab at +175 earlier and is surprised at the line movement. No specific prop bet.
"I think it's a little bit too much too much Steam on the the Naga mov side here the dogger pass situation for me"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Connor picks Umar Nurmagomedov, emphasizing his excellent boxing, jab, and ability to maintain range. He notes that Umar has faced similar pressure fighters before (like Cody Stamann and Raoni Barcelos) and shut them down with his positional striking. Connor warns that Merab's unique cardio and pace make him dangerous, but Umar's technical striking and takedown defense should allow him to win rounds. He also points out that Umar cannot afford to make the same mistakes he made against Cory Sandhagen, where he took risky scrambles. Connor believes Umar's game plan of using the jab and staying at range is the key to beating Merab.

Odds opened at -246, now -338; Merab opened +211, now +280. Connor thinks the line is too wide in Umar's favor.
"I'm picking Umar Nurmagomedov off here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Daniel picks Umar but is hesitant, acknowledging Merab's proven ability to make great fighters look human. He notes Umar's striking edge and length, and believes the grappling will neutralize itself. However, he is concerned about Merab's pace and toughness, and mentions that Merab has been hurt on the feet before. Daniel ultimately goes with Umar to become the new champion but says he is not betting on the fight.

Daniel says he is not betting on this fight, calling it a pass. He mentions that Umar is favored at -350 and Merab at +275.
"I'm actually going to go with Umar to be the new UFC bantamweight champion but from a betting perspective I can understand why someone would call this a doger pass situation"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Jan 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Lucrative James picks Umar Nurmagomedov to become champion, citing his long-held belief in Umar's potential and his superior striking, range control, and jiu-jitsu. He acknowledges Merab's legendary cardio and pressure as major threats, but questions whether Merab can impose his physicality and wrestling on Umar, who is a strong wrestler himself. James notes Umar's lack of adversity faced as a concern, but credits his skill for avoiding trouble. He sees Umar having finishing upside via submission or back takes, while Merab's path likely relies on pace and volume in later rounds.

May look at a point spread for Merab to win one or two rounds
"I'm gonna say um magedov becomes Champion I've believed in him from when he had his UFC debut"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The host thinks Dvalishvili is up against it coming back quickly after winning the title in September. He believes Nurmagomedov will stifle Dvalishvili's high activity, stop takedowns, land better output, and possibly knock him down. He expects Nurmagomedov to win on the scorecards and become the new champion.

"I think nag gamov will do a good job in terms of stifling the high activity game of dval stopping the takedowns Landing the better output maybe even Landing big enough shots to knock down dval fi but I think …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul leans Umar but is not confident due to the price. He acknowledges Merab's skills but believes Umar's wrestling and striking are superior. Paul notes that Merab's takedown-heavy style may not work against a wrestler of Umar's caliber, and that Merab has been taken down before. However, he also points out that Umar hasn't fought elite competition and the line is too high, making Merab a value play.

Mentions that if Umar can mix in his own offensive wrestling and take Merab down, it changes the dynamic. No specific prop.
"I eventually ended up on the Nam magov side yeah that's fair"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win by TKO in round two or three. He believes Umar is more dynamic on the feet with better finishing potential, and can stuff Merab's takedowns. He expects Umar to land a question mark kick or front kick for a KO. He also notes Merab's age and quick turnaround may be factors.

TKO round 2-3
"I think umar's going to get a question mark kick KO over morab deash that's my prediction I think he'll finish him in round two or three"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Zane also picks Umar, agreeing with Connor's reasoning. He highlights Umar's excellent boxing and jab, and his experience against pressure fighters. Zane notes that Merab's lack of a range striking game is a major weakness, and Umar has the tools to exploit it. He cautions that Merab's cardio and relentless pace make him dangerous, but Umar's ability to keep the fight at range and stuff takedowns should give him the edge. Zane also mentions that the odds are too wide, but he still believes Umar is the right pick.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"I'm picking Umar Nurmagomedov off here."
WIN vs Sean O'Malley
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili · Sep 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 47 of 89 52% 49 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean O'Malley 0 82 of 164 50% 214 of 310 6 of 15 40% 0 0 10:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 14 of 28 50% 14 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean O'Malley 0 16 of 30 53% 25 of 41 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:20
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 5 of 10 50% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean O'Malley 0 18 of 38 47% 65 of 92 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:12
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 11 of 21 52% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean O'Malley 0 17 of 38 44% 25 of 46 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:52
4 Merab Dvalishvili 0 6 of 9 66% 7 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean O'Malley 0 21 of 32 65% 74 of 89 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:37
5 Merab Dvalishvili 0 11 of 21 52% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean O'Malley 0 10 of 26 38% 25 of 42 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 47 of 89 52% 22 of 48 23 of 39 2 of 2 45 of 85 0 of 1 2 of 3
Sean O'Malley 82 of 164 50% 55 of 130 4 of 6 23 of 28 29 of 85 8 of 14 45 of 65
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 14 of 28 50% 6 of 16 6 of 10 2 of 2 14 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
Sean O'Malley 16 of 30 53% 13 of 25 1 of 2 2 of 3 7 of 18 3 of 5 6 of 7
2 Merab Dvalishvili 5 of 10 50% 3 of 5 2 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 1
Sean O'Malley 18 of 38 47% 14 of 33 1 of 2 3 of 3 0 of 7 0 of 0 18 of 31
3 Merab Dvalishvili 11 of 21 52% 7 of 13 4 of 8 0 of 0 11 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean O'Malley 17 of 38 44% 6 of 24 2 of 2 9 of 12 11 of 29 5 of 8 1 of 1
4 Merab Dvalishvili 6 of 9 66% 4 of 6 2 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1
Sean O'Malley 21 of 32 65% 20 of 31 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 13 0 of 0 15 of 19
5 Merab Dvalishvili 11 of 21 52% 2 of 8 9 of 13 0 of 0 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 1
Sean O'Malley 10 of 26 38% 2 of 17 0 of 0 8 of 9 5 of 18 0 of 1 5 of 7
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Bantamweight Title Fight: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dvalishvili (-285), O'Malley (+230)

Round 1
The main event will be refereed by Jason Herzog. O'Malley starts off with a spinning back kick to the body. Dvalishvili is able to walk O'Malley back towards the cage. Nice jab by O'Malley, who is also going to the body with punches from afar. Dvalishvili is eating jabs, having some issues with closing the distance early. O'Malley is keeping space with kicks and his jab. Dvalishvili is keeping the pressure on, forcing O'Malley to constantly move. A right hand for Dvalishvili lands, and the champion is then able to get a takedown. O'Malley is quick to get back up, although he grabs the fence. Dvalishvili stays clinched and leans a knee. O'Malley lands his own knee, but gets off-balance and slips. Dvalishvili lands a nice left hook before going for a double-leg takedown. O'Malley does a good job defending, but Dvalishvili is able to pick him up anyhow. Dvalishvili is in full guard. Dvalishvili slips in an elbow and several short hammerfists.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili

Round 2
O'Malley takes the center of the cage. Dvalishvili lands a body kick, while O'Malley misses a spinning back kick. A nice right hand to the body for "Suga." Dvalishvili counters O'Malley with two stinging right hands. O'Malley answers back with a strong right hand of his own. Dvalishvili is throwing kicks to the body. O'Malley's movement is much better this round. O'Malley lands a nice jab. Dvalishvili goes for a takedown, but O'Malley escapes from the cage. The round hits the halfway mark. O'Malley jabs to the body. Dvalishvili goes for another takedown, but O'Malley shucks him off and lands a nice left hand. Much better round for the challenger. Dvalishvili lands a right hand and goes for a takedown, but eats a left hand while entering. O'Malley is able to stay upright and hits the champ with a straight right as he exits. A big right hand for Dvalishvili, who keeps the pressure on as the round ends. Much closer round.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili

Round 3
15 minutes to go. Dvalishvili opens with an overhand right and rushes the challenger. O'Malley lands a solid counter, but Dvalishvili keeps the pressure on and dumps "Suga" to the ground. Dvalishvili is in guard. O'Malley is too happy to sit in guard and is just allowing Dvalishvili to be in control. Dvalishvili is landing shots to the body and slips an elbow in. A lot of time is getting eaten up. Dvalishvili advances into half guard. O'Malley gives up his back in order to get to his feet. Dvalishvili lands a slick knee to the head. Dvalishvili puts O'Malley immediately back down after he gets back to his feet. The fight is fully in Dvalishvili's control. Dvalishvili is in half guard and landing punches with 30 seconds left. Dvalishvili scrambles well into north-south position and is able to lock in a modified guillotine choke. This looks tight, and O'Malley taps. It's over, and Dvalishvili retains with his second-ever submission win.

The Official Result
Merab Dvalishvili def. Sean O'Malley via Submission (Modified Guillotine Choke); R3, 4:42.
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Angelo picks Sean O'Malley but does not bet. He notes O'Malley has incredible accuracy and power, and only needs one shot to finish, while Merab has a suspect chin and a cut over his eye plus possible staph infection that could affect his cardio. However, he acknowledges that a healthy Merab could shoot 550 takedowns and win a boring decision. He is on O'Malley's side but too much of a coward to bet, though he mentions Jacob has bet on O'Malley.

No bet; mentions Jacob has bet on O'Malley.
"I am I'm on the Shaun Ali side no bet though I'm too much of a coward to actually bet on that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Big Brady picks O'Malley, emphasizing damage over control. He notes Dvalishvili's game is takedown attempts with little damage, while O'Malley has power and finishing ability. He predicts O'Malley will land big shots and possibly knock out Dvalishvili in the second round, though a damage-based decision is also possible.

second round knockout
"I'm taking Al I think he probably I'll say knockout for a Ali here... I'll say in the second round here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (fight day)
Merab Dvalishvili

Cody believes Merab's wrestling and cardio will be too much for O'Malley, especially given O'Malley's inactivity and injury concerns. He notes that O'Malley's takedown defense hasn't improved enough and that Merab can make the fight look easier by pushing the pace early. He sees a unanimous decision win for Merab.

"I got Morab likely by unanimous decision."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Daniel picks Sean O'Malley to win, citing O'Malley's superior striking accuracy, footwork, and ability to fight going backwards. He believes O'Malley's teep kicks and straight shots will counter Merab's looping punches and pressure. Daniel also notes O'Malley's brown belt under Cesar Gracie and dismisses cardio concerns, but acknowledges Merab's takedown volume could be a factor if he closes distance.

O'Malley by TKO in round 3
"I'm going with sugar Sean O'Malley man I mean I just don't know why I'm going with sugar Sean but I have a feeling that he's gonna get it done you know via knockout"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Daniel Vreeland picks Sean O'Malley, emphasizing that Merab takes a shot in almost every fight and O'Malley will land that one. He notes Merab's top control is not great and people get back up, differentiating him from Aljamain Sterling. He believes O'Malley is getting an easier fight than against Sterling because Merab is more hitable and susceptible to being countered.

O'Malley by KO
"I'm gonna take Shan Ali too um I I mean obviously I liked it better when he was an underdog but the bottom line for me here is just morab takes a shot in almost every single fight he's in"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Jeff Fox picks Sean O'Malley because he is a striker with a big reach advantage and has cleared every hurdle. He acknowledges Merab could take him down and grind out a win, but believes O'Malley can piece him up on the feet and has shown solid grappling.

"I'm going with the striker I'll go with all Mali he's know he's surprised that I think we take you know his clown person outside the cage um we let it maybe or some people let it um that it …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jun 2, 2025 (fight day)
Sean O'Malley

Lucrative James believes the odds are slightly off, with Merab as a -305 favorite. He notes that Sean O'Malley has more margin for improvement after a close first fight where he hurt Merab in the fifth round. He sees value in O'Malley at +255 and plans to bet him, though he acknowledges Merab's wrestling and cardio make him the likely winner. He emphasizes betting value over picking the winner.

"I'm calling Shaun Ali as the clear side. Shauna Ali is the clear bet inside and plus 255 is good to me."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Dvalishvili has shown great durability and will stick on O'Malley like white on rice, not giving him the space to generate knockout power. Expects Dvalishvili to put O'Malley through the ringer, possibly approaching 50 takedown attempts, and win on the scorecards.

"I have to go with the machine who has shown great durability throughout his career and I expect him to stick on Ali like white on rice so that he doesn't give him the space required from Ali to generate …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (fight day)
Merab Dvalishvili

Paul thinks Merab's game plan is clear and that O'Malley's only chance is a puncher's chance. He points out that O'Malley hasn't fought since the first loss and has been nursing injuries, while Merab has been active and improving. He expects Merab to control the fight with wrestling and win a decision.

"I got Morab likely by unanimous decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 9, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley by TKO in the first or second round. He notes Merab has a staph infection and a cut over his eye, which could be exploited. He believes O'Malley's footwork and takedown defense will neutralize Merab's wrestling, and that O'Malley's upward knees and left hook will be key. He also suggests the UFC may favor O'Malley and that an early stoppage is possible if Merab gets hurt.

O'Malley by TKO in first or second round; mentions staph infection and cut as factors
"I'm going to go Sha Al by TKO in the first or second round putting morab away and I'm going to tell you this as well on top of the staff infection the cut over his eye that's definitely a …"
WIN vs Henry Cejudo
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 74 of 172 43% 167 of 273 5 of 11 45% 1 0 4:23
Henry Cejudo 0 29 of 78 37% 54 of 106 1 of 7 14% 0 0 2:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 16 of 32 50% 42 of 59 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:13
Henry Cejudo 0 11 of 20 55% 36 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:53
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 34 of 78 43% 49 of 94 2 of 4 50% 1 0 1:46
Henry Cejudo 0 9 of 29 31% 9 of 29 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:12
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 24 of 62 38% 76 of 120 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:24
Henry Cejudo 0 9 of 29 31% 9 of 29 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 74 of 172 43% 44 of 128 20 of 34 10 of 10 51 of 134 13 of 24 10 of 14
Henry Cejudo 29 of 78 37% 13 of 54 5 of 11 11 of 13 24 of 68 5 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 16 of 32 50% 9 of 22 4 of 7 3 of 3 9 of 23 6 of 8 1 of 1
Henry Cejudo 11 of 20 55% 4 of 13 3 of 3 4 of 4 9 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 34 of 78 43% 22 of 61 9 of 14 3 of 3 27 of 64 1 of 6 6 of 8
Henry Cejudo 9 of 29 31% 6 of 22 2 of 5 1 of 2 6 of 24 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 24 of 62 38% 13 of 45 7 of 13 4 of 4 15 of 47 6 of 10 3 of 5
Henry Cejudo 9 of 29 31% 3 of 19 0 of 3 6 of 7 9 of 26 0 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili, citing his insane conditioning and relentless chain wrestling. He notes Henry Cejudo gave up four takedowns to Aljamain Sterling and expects Merab to take him down repeatedly. He is rooting for Cejudo but believes Merab's style is the worst matchup for him in the division.

"morab is going to be the pick I will be rooting big time for Henry cejudo here but you got to go morab"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Big Brady picks Merab Dvalishvili to win by decision. He praises Merab's relentless pace and volume, referencing his record 49 takedown attempts against Petr Yan. He believes Cejudo, at 37 and coming off a layoff, will struggle to keep up. He compares it to the Jose Aldo fight where Merab lost all takedowns but still won via pressure and cage control. He expects a similar outcome here.

Merab by decision
"I'm taking Mor Rob here I'm taking Mor Rob by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Henry Cejudo

Cody leans toward Cejudo as an underdog, thinking his Olympic-level wrestling could neutralize Merab's takedown-heavy game. He notes that Cejudo is a natural flyweight and may not be outsized by Merab. He questions whether Merab's wrestling will be effective against a gold medalist. He sees value in Cejudo at plus money.

"I have interest in the underdog Henry cejudo um just because I think he obviously being a Olympic champion in wrestling can maybe thwart uh Mor's best path to Victory which is nonstop attacking takedowns."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Daniel Vreeland picks Merab Dvalishvili, emphasizing his youth, cardio, and relentless pace. He notes Merab's 49 takedown attempts against Petr Yan and his ability to outwork opponents. He questions Cejudo's motivation and training situation, suggesting he is not in the same shape as during his championship run. He believes Merab's pressure and volume will fatigue Cejudo and lead to a decision win.

"I think Merab is going to win too... I think he gets it done here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Dvalishvili's high cardio, pace, and output overwhelm opponents, forcing mistakes. Cejudo has technical advantages but his prime is past. Expects Dvalishvili to win by decision.

"give me deales fi by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Paul picks Merab, citing his non-stop pressure and takedown volume. He notes that Merab's wrestling is his staple, and even if he doesn't hold Cejudo down, the constant takedown attempts will wear on Cejudo. He references Merab's win over Petr Yan, where he attempted 49 takedowns, and his ability to out-strike Aldo without any takedowns. He believes Merab's cardio and pace will be too much for Cejudo.

"yeah man because that ability to just keep going the non-stop pressure in the action so I I think that that eventually grinds away as audo and uh gives him a points Victory."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

The MMA Guru picks Merab Dvalishvili, citing his size advantage, cardio, and pressure. He notes Cejudo's inactivity and overthinking in the Aljamain Sterling fight. He believes Merab's grappling and pace will annoy Cejudo, even if Cejudo gets back up. He mentions a conspiracy about Cejudo firing his coach, but ultimately trusts Merab's momentum.

"I'm going with Merab... Morab's got not that bad standup... monstrous cardio and you're giving him a size and mass advantage over Cejudo."
WIN vs Petr Yan
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 75 of 143 52% 87 of 155 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:50
Petr Yan 0 147 of 338 43% 202 of 401 11 of 49 22% 0 0 6:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 13 of 25 52% 20 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Petr Yan 0 22 of 62 35% 35 of 81 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:10
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 18 of 35 51% 21 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
Petr Yan 0 35 of 80 43% 41 of 86 3 of 7 42% 0 0 0:59
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 8 of 27 29% 9 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Petr Yan 0 15 of 46 32% 22 of 53 1 of 14 7% 0 0 1:34
4 Merab Dvalishvili 0 21 of 31 67% 21 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:47
Petr Yan 0 38 of 75 50% 51 of 88 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:01
5 Merab Dvalishvili 0 15 of 25 60% 16 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Petr Yan 0 37 of 75 49% 53 of 93 5 of 12 41% 0 0 2:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 75 of 143 52% 41 of 105 16 of 19 18 of 19 66 of 132 9 of 11 0 of 0
Petr Yan 147 of 338 43% 91 of 260 35 of 52 21 of 26 129 of 312 18 of 26 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 13 of 25 52% 4 of 15 2 of 2 7 of 8 11 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0
Petr Yan 22 of 62 35% 12 of 48 6 of 9 4 of 5 15 of 54 7 of 8 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 18 of 35 51% 6 of 21 8 of 10 4 of 4 16 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 0
Petr Yan 35 of 80 43% 19 of 59 8 of 11 8 of 10 32 of 75 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 8 of 27 29% 5 of 23 1 of 2 2 of 2 6 of 23 2 of 4 0 of 0
Petr Yan 15 of 46 32% 10 of 37 5 of 8 0 of 1 13 of 41 2 of 5 0 of 0
4 Merab Dvalishvili 21 of 31 67% 15 of 25 4 of 4 2 of 2 18 of 28 3 of 3 0 of 0
Petr Yan 38 of 75 50% 24 of 55 10 of 15 4 of 5 36 of 72 2 of 3 0 of 0
5 Merab Dvalishvili 15 of 25 60% 11 of 21 1 of 1 3 of 3 15 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Petr Yan 37 of 75 49% 26 of 61 6 of 9 5 of 5 33 of 70 4 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Angelo picks Petr Yan despite acknowledging Merab's relentless wrestling. He believes Yan is the better fighter and will make Merab pay on his entries, using leg kicks and potentially his own takedowns. He compares Yan's situation to Figueiredo's potential downward spiral but notes that many think Yan beat O'Malley and Sterling. He goes with his brain over his gut.

"I am going to go with the brain here pyoto's gonna be the pick... I think he'll spin off I think he's gonna light up marab's legs he may shoot his own takedowns"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Big Brady picks Petr Yan confidently, calling it a good matchup for him. He highlights Yan's incredible takedown defense and get-up game, and notes Dvalishvili has no control grappling—he can take down but not control. Brady expects Yan to stuff takedowns easier as the fight goes on and finish Dvalishvili with a fourth-round TKO, doing all the damage while Dvalishvili struggles to hold him down.

win by TKO in round 4
"I like yawn a lot I like yawn to finish this fight I'm gonna say fourth round TKO for Pierre on"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Cody picks Petr Yan but with hesitation due to the -250 price and Yan's recent performances, especially the close fight with Sean O'Malley. He notes Yan's slow starts and Dvalishvili's fast start, but believes Yan's volume, body attack, and ability to get back up will break Dvalishvili. He recommends live betting after the first round.

suggests live betting after first round
"I really don't like the money line on this to be honest but I do have Peter yawn winning fight and I think you're going to be able to probably live at this after the first and feel a lot …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Connor picks Petr Yan, emphasizing Yan's superior striking technique, timing, and power. He notes that Yan's left hook is a key weapon against Dvalishvili, who is vulnerable to that punch due to overcommitting. Connor acknowledges Dvalishvili's relentless pressure and cardio but believes Yan's counterpunching and ability to pick his shots will prevail. He also points out that Yan's takedown defense and scrambling are solid enough to avoid being controlled.

Odds mentioned: Yan opened -175, now -265; Dvalishvili opened +150, now +210.
"I think he's going to win. Yeah, he's going to, I have to expect that he's just going to be able to see the moments when Dvalishvili really actually sits down and plants his feet. And when he does see …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Petr Yan

I believe Petr Yan's superior technical striking and defensive wrestling will be the difference. Merab's takedown-heavy style relies on volume, but Yan's takedown defense and ability to get back to his feet should neutralize that. Yan's power and leg kicks will slow Merab's explosiveness, leading to a knockout within three rounds. Merab may have moments, but Yan's damage output will outweigh the control time.

Yan by KO round 3
"I think he knocks out murab de valasfili within three rounds maybe even the fourth but I think he knocks him out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Paul picks Petr Yan to win, noting Yan's slow starts but superior skill set and ability to calculate and adjust. He mentions Yan's takedown defense and cardio as key factors, and suggests live betting after the first round when Yan's price may improve. He is hesitant about the -250 line but confident Yan wins.

sprinkled Yan round 4 at +2200 and Yan round 5 at +3300; suggests live betting after first round
"I am going to side with Peter yawn to get back on track minus 250 isn't doing it for me I did sprinkle yawn round four at 20 plus 2200 and yawn round five at plus 3 300."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Petr Yan

The MMA Guru picks Petr Yan, believing he is unfinishable and has improved his grappling. He notes that Merab is open on the feet and Yan will capitalize with elbows and shots off the break. He predicts Yan will win by decision or late-round TKO, as Merab's pace may slow and Yan's power will take over. He also mentions referees being anti-clinch, which may hinder Merab's game.

by decision or late rounds TKO
"I think Jan's got this one in the bag I do I was watching marab's fight with Marla Mirage I know it's Marla Mirage and he's dangerous and he is going to drop people early and that's just how it …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Zane picks Petr Yan, citing Yan's excellent counterpunching and left hook as key advantages. He notes that Dvalishvili is vulnerable to left hooks, as seen in fights against Marlon Moraes and Cody Stamann. Zane also highlights Yan's solid takedown defense and scrambling, which should prevent Dvalishvili from replicating Aljamain Sterling's back-taking game. He expects Yan to time Dvalishvili's entries and land cleaner shots.

Odds mentioned: Yan opened -175, now -265; Dvalishvili opened +150, now +210.
"I think this is a pretty good matchup for him because Marab can do a lot of Aljo type things. ... The difference is, is that Aljamaine Sterling is possibly the best back taker in the sport. ... Marab is …"
WIN vs José Aldo
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 · Aug 20, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 38 of 67 56% 59 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 57 of 147 38% 135 of 230 0 of 16 0% 0 0 5:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 15 of 25 60% 21 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 16 of 49 32% 21 of 54 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:34
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 11 of 22 50% 25 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 11 of 29 37% 62 of 84 0 of 6 0% 0 0 2:54
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 12 of 20 60% 13 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 30 of 69 43% 52 of 92 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 38 of 67 56% 11 of 35 21 of 25 6 of 7 35 of 63 3 of 4 0 of 0
José Aldo 57 of 147 38% 20 of 102 10 of 14 27 of 31 43 of 132 14 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 15 of 25 60% 1 of 8 11 of 13 3 of 4 15 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
José Aldo 16 of 49 32% 2 of 31 3 of 4 11 of 14 15 of 47 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 11 of 22 50% 5 of 15 4 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0
José Aldo 11 of 29 37% 5 of 22 2 of 3 4 of 4 9 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 12 of 20 60% 5 of 12 6 of 7 1 of 1 11 of 18 1 of 2 0 of 0
José Aldo 30 of 69 43% 13 of 49 5 of 7 12 of 13 19 of 58 11 of 11 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 14, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili over José Aldo, though he admits it's a tough pick and he'll be rooting for Aldo. He highlights Aldo's legendary takedown defense, noting that only Frankie Edgar has taken him down more than once in 27 Zuffa fights. However, Angelo believes that without Aldo's leg kicks to slow Merab's relentless wrestling, Aldo will be defending takedowns all night and likely lose a decision. He emphasizes Merab's insane 7.3 takedowns per 15 minutes and his chain-wrestling style.

Plans to hammer the 'most takedowns' prop bet on Merab Dvalishvili when it drops on BetOnline, similar to the Jason Witt bet.
"murab's gonna be the pick i'm gonna be rooting for jose aldo the entire time and i will gladly get this pick wrong"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2022 (5 days before fight)
José Aldo

Big Brady picks José Aldo as the underdog. He highlights Aldo's 90% takedown defense against elite competition, and believes Merab Dvalishvili's relentless wrestling will be neutralized. Aldo is the clearly better striker and has looked good recently. Brady expects Aldo to stuff takedowns, land more damage on the feet, and win a decision. He notes that Dvalishvili's wins are against lower-level competition and this is a big step up.

Aldo by decision
"i like the dog here on jose auto i like him to stuff takedowns i know it's not going to be a very popular pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Cody picks Aldo as a live underdog, citing Aldo's excellent takedown defense (90% career), striking advantage, and ability to win rounds. He thinks Merab's run is overrated and that Aldo can exploit his aggressive style. He acknowledges it's a close fight but likes the plus money.

"i think jose still again another one of these guys that's getting a little bit older but probably still has something left in the tank for underdog money in this close of a fight he's going to lose half the …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Daniel Levi picks Merab Dvalishvili to win a split decision, but he is hesitant because the fight is three rounds instead of five. He notes that Aldo has legendary takedown defense (90% over a long sample size) and will likely win the first round. However, he worries about Aldo's cardio in the elevation of Salt Lake City, as Aldo did not train at altitude. Levi believes Merab's relentless wrestling and pace will wear Aldo down in the second and third rounds, leading to a close decision. He acknowledges that Aldo could win a split decision and that there is value on Aldo as a dog.

Mentions that if it were a five-round fight he would confidently pick Merab, but as a three-round fight it's a toss-up. Says Aldo dog money has value because it could be a split decision.
"five round fight I'm confidently picking morab three-round fight it's it's uh it's like who's judging this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2022 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Aldo's superior striking, get-up game, and takedown defense should allow him to land more damage than Dvalishvili, who struggles to hold opponents down. The host expects Aldo to win by knockout, possibly similar to the Jack Cartwright fight. He advises only 1 unit due to the risk of a changing of the guard.

Aldo by knockout (+450) is mentioned. Also notes under 2.5 rounds (+175) and doesn't go to decision (+150).
"I like jose aldo on the spot and i'm doing my best to not get sucked into the whole aldo and how great he used to be."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Paul picks Merab but is not confident. He thinks Merab's relentless takedown attempts could be key, but notes his poor top control. He mentions he might play Merab over 2.5 takedowns on Prize Picks and prefers live betting.

over 2.5 takedowns on Prize Picks
"i'm gonna pick marab i think he does secure takedowns won't be touching this unless it's in a live betting market"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2022 (fight day)
José Aldo

The Guru predicts José Aldo wins by TKO in the second round. He describes Aldo popping the jab, landing leg kicks, and checking Merab's leg kicks. He sees Aldo stuffing takedowns, landing knees to the body, and eventually hurting Merab with body shots, leading to a TKO. He acknowledges the possibility that Aldo could get mashed up like he did against Yan in the fifth round, but believes his prediction will come true.

TKO in round 2
"tko in the second round for jose aldo the legend"
Henry Cejudo - Fight History
LOSS vs Payton Talbott
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Henry Cejudo 0 60 of 116 51% 77 of 136 1 of 7 14% 0 0 2:39
Payton Talbott 1 134 of 217 61% 156 of 240 3 of 5 60% 0 0 3:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Henry Cejudo 0 22 of 44 50% 26 of 49 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Payton Talbott 0 40 of 57 70% 50 of 67 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:37
2 Henry Cejudo 0 18 of 38 47% 30 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:13
Payton Talbott 1 50 of 88 56% 57 of 95 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:36
3 Henry Cejudo 0 20 of 34 58% 21 of 35 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:26
Payton Talbott 0 44 of 72 61% 49 of 78 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Henry Cejudo 60 of 116 51% 33 of 83 10 of 12 17 of 21 51 of 104 7 of 10 2 of 2
Payton Talbott 134 of 217 61% 89 of 167 34 of 39 11 of 11 90 of 168 28 of 31 16 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Henry Cejudo 22 of 44 50% 11 of 28 1 of 2 10 of 14 18 of 39 2 of 3 2 of 2
Payton Talbott 40 of 57 70% 28 of 45 7 of 7 5 of 5 29 of 46 4 of 4 7 of 7
2 Henry Cejudo 18 of 38 47% 11 of 30 3 of 4 4 of 4 16 of 34 2 of 4 0 of 0
Payton Talbott 50 of 88 56% 35 of 69 13 of 17 2 of 2 29 of 62 12 of 15 9 of 11
3 Henry Cejudo 20 of 34 58% 11 of 25 6 of 6 3 of 3 17 of 31 3 of 3 0 of 0
Payton Talbott 44 of 72 61% 26 of 53 14 of 15 4 of 4 32 of 60 12 of 12 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Angelo picks Payton Talbott, acknowledging Henry Cejudo's Olympic wrestling credentials but believing Cejudo is too old and past his prime. He notes that Talbott is much larger, athletic, and has improved his wrestling since the Hani Barcelos fight. Angelo expects Talbott to use his size and speed to overwhelm Cejudo, despite his personal admiration for Cejudo.

"Payton Talbot's the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Big Brady picks Payton Talbott, noting Cejudo's retirement talk, lack of recent wins, and decline. He highlights Talbott's improvements in takedown defense and scrambling after the Barcelos fight. He expects Talbott to win by third-round knockout.

Talbott by third round knockout
"I'm going to take Payton Tabata to make a statement and get some of the hype he once lost and get that back and then some with the big performance here. Give me Payton Tabata to win by third round …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Cody is hesitant but picks Talbott, noting that Cejudo's recent fights show he doesn't wrestle enough. He points out that Cejudo's takedown attempts have declined and he relies on striking, where Talbott has a reach advantage. He mentions that Talbott's wrestling looked improved against Felipe Lima. He is tempted by Cejudo's dog odds but doesn't trust him to wrestle.

"If I could trust Henry Cejudo to come out here and make this a wrestling match, I'd be all about Henry Cejudo at like plus 215. The problem is like he doesn't really want to do that anymore."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Connor picks Talbott, arguing that Cejudo doesn't want to wrestle and will likely revert to his preferred striking. He notes that Talbott has shown improvement in defensive wrestling since the Barcelos fight, and his pressure-volume style is effective. Connor believes Cejudo can hit takedowns but doubts his ability to stick with a wrestling-heavy game plan, especially at 38. He sees Talbott as a younger, more dynamic striker who understands pace and pressure.

Odds: Cejudo opened +210, now +215; Talbott opened -250, now -255.
"I'm not picking him to win. I mean, I expect him to try, but it's just not what he wants. Even if he tries, can you do it sustainably?"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Daniel picks Talbott, citing Cejudo's age (38), size disadvantage (5'4 vs 5'10), and decline since retirement. He expects Cejudo to have early success but fade, while Talbott's power and athleticism will take over. He notes Talbott's learning from his first loss and improved confidence.

"I'm going to go Payton Talba to come out here and overcome some stuff early and then Cejudo is going to start to gas out and I think Pton Talba's going to put a beating on Triple C."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Lucrative James believes Henry Cejudo is not fully committed to MMA, citing his content creation and retirement talk. He thinks Talbott's relentless pressure and body work will wear down Cejudo, especially in rounds 2 and 3. He notes Talbott's presence and striking flow are exceptional and predicts a round 3 stoppage or decision win.

"Payton Talba is going to go out there and break Henry Ceudo in my opinion."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Payton Talbott

The host expects the fight to be more competitive than the -255 odds suggest but still picks Talbott to land more effective damage and do enough defensive grappling to keep Cejudo from grinding. He predicts a decision win for Talbott.

win by decision; odds comment: minus 255 on Talbet
"I'm expecting this fight to be much more competitive than the minus 255 on Talbet indicates... Talba comes out on top by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Paul picks Talbott, echoing Cody's concerns about Cejudo's wrestling. He notes that Cejudo's best wins came against older or smaller opponents and that he hasn't knocked anyone out since 2020. He believes Talbott's length and accuracy will cause problems for Cejudo, who is reluctant to shoot takedowns. He thinks Talbott wins by decision or TKO.

"I think Payton Taba wins this fight as well. Yeah, wrestling with uh with Frank Oceans, one of the best bases for MMA, I've heard."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Henry Cejudo

The Guru picks Henry Cejudo as a +230 underdog over Payton Talbott. He believes Talbott is being pushed too fast and Cejudo's experience and chin will be too much. The Guru predicts a 29-28 decision win for Cejudo.

plus 230 underdog
"I'm going with Sudo over Payton Tabet by 2928 decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Payton Talbott

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Cejudo's career shows a reluctance to wrestle unless forced. He points out that Talbott's game is built on pressure and volume, similar to Colby Covington's approach, but with actual striking talent. Zane believes Talbott will come in improved after the Lima fight, where he showed better defensive wrestling. He thinks Cejudo's takedowns will be less effective as the fight goes on, and Talbott's pace will overwhelm him.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"Yes, we're both picking Talbott."
LOSS vs Song Yadong
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · Feb 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Henry Cejudo 0 67 of 133 50% 67 of 133 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Song Yadong 0 84 of 178 47% 84 of 178 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Henry Cejudo 0 13 of 25 52% 13 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Song Yadong 0 21 of 31 67% 21 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Henry Cejudo 0 29 of 55 52% 29 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Song Yadong 0 33 of 69 47% 33 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Henry Cejudo 0 25 of 53 47% 25 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Song Yadong 0 30 of 78 38% 30 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Henry Cejudo 67 of 133 50% 40 of 100 12 of 18 15 of 15 67 of 132 0 of 1 0 of 0
Song Yadong 84 of 178 47% 46 of 133 14 of 21 24 of 24 82 of 176 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Henry Cejudo 13 of 25 52% 3 of 13 3 of 5 7 of 7 13 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Song Yadong 21 of 31 67% 6 of 16 5 of 5 10 of 10 19 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Henry Cejudo 29 of 55 52% 18 of 42 3 of 5 8 of 8 29 of 54 0 of 1 0 of 0
Song Yadong 33 of 69 47% 17 of 49 5 of 9 11 of 11 33 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Henry Cejudo 25 of 53 47% 19 of 45 6 of 8 0 of 0 25 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Song Yadong 30 of 78 38% 23 of 68 4 of 7 3 of 3 30 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Henry Cejudo vs. Yadong Song

Round 1
His back against the wall, former two-division champ Cejudo (16-4, 10-4 UFC) finds himself on a rare losing streak, albeit to two of the best bantamweights in the world in Aljamain Sterling and Merab Dvalishvili. The Olympic gold medalist takes a slight step down in competition to face Song (21-8-1, 1 NC; 10-3-1 UFC), who also lost his last fight against a champ-level fighter in Petr Yan. The 135ers are brought to the center of the cage by referee Jason Herzog, and they acknowledge one another and double bump their gloves together. It’s on with the show. Cejudo pump-fakes his hips several times to give the impression of a looming takedown, and Song does not bite on a single one and fires off a heavy low kick. Cejudo rushes forward with a one-two that misses the mark, and he races forward and catches Song at the end of an exchange. Song bounces off the cage and gets back to kicking the wrestler in the lead leg and little else. Song sits down on a counter, but Cejudo is in and out with a body kick before that happens. Cejudo fakes a takedown to come up overt the top with a left hook, and after that fails, he motions low for a level change and attack with a flying knee. Cejudo lets fly a low kick and gets jabbed in the belly for his handiwork. Song uses his range to potshot from afar with jabs, low kicks and reaching left hooks. Cejudo fakes his way in but does not engage in anything other than a low kick of his own, and as Song backs off, Cejudo kicks him in the side. Chants of “USA” rain down in support of the wrestler, and Song takes advantage of the energy by clipping the American with a right hand and further flusters him with low kicks. The two drill one another with low kicks, and Song’s ankle bends awkwardly as he tries to put pressure on it. Cejudo keeps kicking the calf, and he shoots low and comes out swinging high. Song rips a kick to the side, and he nearly splits the guard with an uppercut. Both fighters blitz and pull back before letting things go, and Song sits down on a right hand. When Cejudo kicks the body of his foe, Song cracks him with another right hand. Cejudo is fired up and swings back with a vengeance, and he chases Song around until the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Song
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 2
The fighters high-five to get started again, and then pull back without trading. Song eventually works his way forward, chipping away with kicks to the body. Cejudo surges forward with two hooks, and his low kick is all that lands from it. Song darts back and works the body, and Cejudo says something to him and strikes. Song swipes out with a left hook, and leg kicks fly from both sides. Song splits the guard with a double jab, and his naked leg kick is nearly countered with a right up top. Song backs off the former champ with a few long punches, and he puts a few right hands down the pipe and goes to the body after. Cejudo waves him on, and he comes up top with a right hand when faking a takedown. Cejudo goes after a takedown, and Song shrugs it off and triples up on his jab. They whip kicks at one another, and Cejudo times a solid left. A jumping switch kick from Cejudo lands to the side, and he drops down in pursuit of a takedown. Song’s sprawl shuts it down, and he fires off kicks to the lead leg. One skims the cup, but Cejudo motions that he does not want to pause. As Song keeps kicking, he falls over, and Cejudo charges at him and then backs off. Song allows Cejudo to come in so he can belt him in the face with a pair of hooks, and he trips Cejudo up with his leg kicks and forces a stance switch. Song jabs and jabs, following a few with right hands and beating the elder statesman to the punch. Song gets a right hand in and escapes, only for Cejudo get his hands on him with a fierce right. Song staggers back and is ready to engage, as if he needs to take damage to get out of first gear. Song suddenly drops down for a single, and Cejudo tosses it aside and scores a right hand. The former champion lands another overhand right, and Song clips him with an uppercut. Song stands his man up with a left, and Cejudo wants to bang it out and does just that. A few right hands from “The Messenger” bloody up Song’s nose, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo

Round 3
Song wants to pay Cejudo back right out of the gate, surging forward throwing punches. Cejudo stands in the pocket ready for battle, and he fakes his takedown every so often to further open things up on the feet. Song never bites, and instead stands Cejudo up with his sharper punches. The punches from Cejudo open a cut on Song’s cheek, and Song blocks a jump knee and pushes Cejudo aside. The two trade one after the other, not concerned about power and willingly engaging. Cejudo blocks a few punches to throw back, but it is Song’s one-two that gets through. When Cejudo lashes out, Song pushes off with a front kick that lands on the cup. Herzog asks replay to check if this is a direct foul, and after 30 seconds, they get back to it. Cejudo ducks a few jabs and swings hard, and again drops down for a level change only to swing up high. This results in a furious brawl, with Cejudo right there in front of the fighter from China swinging hard. Song jumps at his man with a knee, and Cejudo blocks it just in time. Song knocks Cejudo back during an exchange and grins, and he slaps a kick low and backs off when Cejudo hurls a left hook at him. Cejudo sneaks in a clean right hand to get Song’s attention, and Song pays him back with a clubbing right. Song pushes off with his fingers outstretched, and his fingers jam into both of Cejudo’s eyes like a Three Stooges poke. Herzog pauses the action and tells Song to be careful, and Cejudo asks for a cloth to wipe his eyes while telling Herzog to take a point. Cejudo wipes his eyes out with a wet towel, taking ample time to recover while blinking his eyes repeatedly to clear his vision. Cejudo declares to Herzog that he wants to fight and needs to take the time to see better, and he sits down. The crowd showers him with boos, and Cejudo tells the audience to cool it because he was the recipient of a nasty foul. Cejudo uses the complete five-minute break to clear up, and when they resume, Song still holds his fingers out towards his opponent. Song walks Cejudo down and busts him in the chops, clipping him with a solid uppercut when Cejudo is circling away. Song backs Cejudo against the fence, trying to cut him off and aim long strikes at him like front kicks and jabs. Cejudo ducks back to defend from further uppercuts, and he dodges a jump knee to get to the end of the round. Cejudo complains to his corner that he cannot see, and Herzog is paying close attention to this. Cejudo asks the promotion to call in the doctor, and that he cannot see out of his left eye.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Song
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 4
Herzog allows the third round to complete, and he goes to start the fourth round and calls time, officially bringing in the doctor and waving the fight off. This means that the fighters will be going to a technical decision, and everyone in the building is disappointed. The first three rounds will be scored in their entirety, and a rematch is almost certainly in the cards for these two. After such a terrific start to the event, it is unfortunate for the night to end like this. Both fighters are game to run it back. When they do, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Yadong Song def. Henry Cejudo via Unanimous Technical Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Angelo picks Song Yadong despite being a huge Henry Cejudo fan. He notes Cejudo is 38 and hasn't won since 2020, while Song is young, fast, and a clean striker. He thinks Song will look better as the fight goes longer. He will not bet on the fight because he will be rooting for Cejudo and never bets on someone he doesn't think will win.

No bet due to rooting interest
"I think Song wins this fight... I'll be rooting for Henry Cejudo, I want him to win, but I don't think he's going to get it done."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Big Brady picks Song Yadong, noting that Henry Cejudo is 38 years old and may not be taking his career seriously, citing an interview where Cejudo was smoking. He believes Song's takedown defense and get-up game have improved significantly since the Stamann fight, and that Song is 11 years younger with a height advantage. He expects Song to win a clear one-sided decision, with Cejudo maybe getting a takedown here or there but being outworked.

by decision
"give me S Yong I I'll say s Yong wins this fight a pretty pretty clear one-sided decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Connor picks Song Yadong but is hesitant, noting that if the fight were three rounds he would pick Cejudo. He acknowledges Cejudo's ability to take Song down early and grind, but doubts Cejudo can maintain pace or finish Song. Connor points out that Cejudo's speed may not shock a young fighter like Song, and that Song is very tough to finish.

"if this were a three round fight I would probably pick henry sauto to win it... but it's five rounds and song yadong is younger and harder hitting"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Song Yadong

The host thinks Song's striking style will be too much for Cejudo, who may make the fight closer than odds indicate. He believes the damage Song inflicts will lead to a decision victory.

"I think that song's striking style will end up being too much for shudo here shudo might have some success to make this fight look closer than the odds indicate I still believe that the damage that song will be …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Song Yadong

The Guru picks Song Yadong by decision, arguing he is more athletic, faster, and has better footwork. He doubts Cejudo's takedown effectiveness, noting he hasn't seen a good takedown from him in years and that opponents often get back up. He believes Song's defensive grappling is strong and that he will outpoint Cejudo on the feet over five rounds, predicting a 48-47 score.

decision win
"I'm gonna go with s Yong I'm gonna go with son Yong and I'm gonna say that song wins this fight by decision three rounds to two four rounds to one"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Zane picks Song Yadong because he believes Cejudo is too old and knockout-dependent, and Song is younger, harder hitting, and more durable. He notes that Cejudo's last decision win was a robbery over Demetrious Johnson and that he slows down in later rounds. However, Zane expresses disappointment that Song likely won't show any new skills, as he expects a win that teaches nothing new.

"I have to pick song yadong, but the unfortunate truth is it's probably i'm expecting a win where I learn literally nothing new about him"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 74 of 172 43% 167 of 273 5 of 11 45% 1 0 4:23
Henry Cejudo 0 29 of 78 37% 54 of 106 1 of 7 14% 0 0 2:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 16 of 32 50% 42 of 59 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:13
Henry Cejudo 0 11 of 20 55% 36 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:53
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 34 of 78 43% 49 of 94 2 of 4 50% 1 0 1:46
Henry Cejudo 0 9 of 29 31% 9 of 29 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:12
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 24 of 62 38% 76 of 120 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:24
Henry Cejudo 0 9 of 29 31% 9 of 29 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 74 of 172 43% 44 of 128 20 of 34 10 of 10 51 of 134 13 of 24 10 of 14
Henry Cejudo 29 of 78 37% 13 of 54 5 of 11 11 of 13 24 of 68 5 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 16 of 32 50% 9 of 22 4 of 7 3 of 3 9 of 23 6 of 8 1 of 1
Henry Cejudo 11 of 20 55% 4 of 13 3 of 3 4 of 4 9 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 34 of 78 43% 22 of 61 9 of 14 3 of 3 27 of 64 1 of 6 6 of 8
Henry Cejudo 9 of 29 31% 6 of 22 2 of 5 1 of 2 6 of 24 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 24 of 62 38% 13 of 45 7 of 13 4 of 4 15 of 47 6 of 10 3 of 5
Henry Cejudo 9 of 29 31% 3 of 19 0 of 3 6 of 7 9 of 26 0 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili, citing his insane conditioning and relentless chain wrestling. He notes Henry Cejudo gave up four takedowns to Aljamain Sterling and expects Merab to take him down repeatedly. He is rooting for Cejudo but believes Merab's style is the worst matchup for him in the division.

"morab is going to be the pick I will be rooting big time for Henry cejudo here but you got to go morab"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Big Brady picks Merab Dvalishvili to win by decision. He praises Merab's relentless pace and volume, referencing his record 49 takedown attempts against Petr Yan. He believes Cejudo, at 37 and coming off a layoff, will struggle to keep up. He compares it to the Jose Aldo fight where Merab lost all takedowns but still won via pressure and cage control. He expects a similar outcome here.

Merab by decision
"I'm taking Mor Rob here I'm taking Mor Rob by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Henry Cejudo

Cody leans toward Cejudo as an underdog, thinking his Olympic-level wrestling could neutralize Merab's takedown-heavy game. He notes that Cejudo is a natural flyweight and may not be outsized by Merab. He questions whether Merab's wrestling will be effective against a gold medalist. He sees value in Cejudo at plus money.

"I have interest in the underdog Henry cejudo um just because I think he obviously being a Olympic champion in wrestling can maybe thwart uh Mor's best path to Victory which is nonstop attacking takedowns."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Daniel Vreeland picks Merab Dvalishvili, emphasizing his youth, cardio, and relentless pace. He notes Merab's 49 takedown attempts against Petr Yan and his ability to outwork opponents. He questions Cejudo's motivation and training situation, suggesting he is not in the same shape as during his championship run. He believes Merab's pressure and volume will fatigue Cejudo and lead to a decision win.

"I think Merab is going to win too... I think he gets it done here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Dvalishvili's high cardio, pace, and output overwhelm opponents, forcing mistakes. Cejudo has technical advantages but his prime is past. Expects Dvalishvili to win by decision.

"give me deales fi by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Paul picks Merab, citing his non-stop pressure and takedown volume. He notes that Merab's wrestling is his staple, and even if he doesn't hold Cejudo down, the constant takedown attempts will wear on Cejudo. He references Merab's win over Petr Yan, where he attempted 49 takedowns, and his ability to out-strike Aldo without any takedowns. He believes Merab's cardio and pace will be too much for Cejudo.

"yeah man because that ability to just keep going the non-stop pressure in the action so I I think that that eventually grinds away as audo and uh gives him a points Victory."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

The MMA Guru picks Merab Dvalishvili, citing his size advantage, cardio, and pressure. He notes Cejudo's inactivity and overthinking in the Aljamain Sterling fight. He believes Merab's grappling and pace will annoy Cejudo, even if Cejudo gets back up. He mentions a conspiracy about Cejudo firing his coach, but ultimately trusts Merab's momentum.

"I'm going with Merab... Morab's got not that bad standup... monstrous cardio and you're giving him a size and mass advantage over Cejudo."
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · May 06, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aljamain Sterling 0 135 of 210 64% 186 of 261 4 of 15 26% 0 0 4:00
Henry Cejudo 0 99 of 174 56% 143 of 219 3 of 8 37% 0 0 5:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aljamain Sterling 0 20 of 34 58% 29 of 43 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:37
Henry Cejudo 0 7 of 18 38% 15 of 26 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:47
2 Aljamain Sterling 0 29 of 55 52% 29 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Henry Cejudo 0 31 of 53 58% 31 of 53 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
3 Aljamain Sterling 0 26 of 29 89% 45 of 48 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:30
Henry Cejudo 0 15 of 29 51% 38 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:43
4 Aljamain Sterling 0 36 of 52 69% 52 of 68 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:38
Henry Cejudo 0 19 of 33 57% 24 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:46
5 Aljamain Sterling 0 24 of 40 60% 31 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Henry Cejudo 0 27 of 41 65% 35 of 49 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aljamain Sterling 135 of 210 64% 51 of 112 50 of 60 34 of 38 103 of 174 24 of 28 8 of 8
Henry Cejudo 99 of 174 56% 35 of 99 30 of 37 34 of 38 82 of 152 16 of 21 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aljamain Sterling 20 of 34 58% 5 of 15 10 of 12 5 of 7 12 of 25 3 of 4 5 of 5
Henry Cejudo 7 of 18 38% 3 of 13 1 of 1 3 of 4 7 of 16 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Aljamain Sterling 29 of 55 52% 10 of 33 11 of 14 8 of 8 28 of 53 1 of 2 0 of 0
Henry Cejudo 31 of 53 58% 10 of 26 7 of 11 14 of 16 29 of 51 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Aljamain Sterling 26 of 29 89% 12 of 15 11 of 11 3 of 3 17 of 20 7 of 7 2 of 2
Henry Cejudo 15 of 29 51% 7 of 19 5 of 6 3 of 4 10 of 23 4 of 5 1 of 1
4 Aljamain Sterling 36 of 52 69% 11 of 25 13 of 14 12 of 13 27 of 42 8 of 9 1 of 1
Henry Cejudo 19 of 33 57% 7 of 20 5 of 6 7 of 7 16 of 30 3 of 3 0 of 0
5 Aljamain Sterling 24 of 40 60% 13 of 24 5 of 9 6 of 7 19 of 34 5 of 6 0 of 0
Henry Cejudo 27 of 41 65% 8 of 21 12 of 13 7 of 7 20 of 32 7 of 9 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Bantamweight Title Fight: Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cejudo (-115), Sterling (-105)

Round 1
This one is for all the marbles, and a fair amount of divisional glory as well. Sterling (22-3, 14-3 UFC) will be trying to set the UFC bantamweight record by notching his third successful title defense, while Cejudo (16-2, 10-2 UFC) would like nothing more than to get his old belt back. The winner of this pairing will elevate themselves in the all-time rankings at bantamweight, and they will have 25 minutes to figure it out. Like the legion of fans in the Prudential Center, referee Herb Dean is excited for how this one will play out. The fighters share a stern glove touch, and let the games begin. Sterling comes out aggressively, and he leads the dance with an early head kick. They clash shins at the same time, and Sterling recovers and kicks the leg. Cejudo ignores a few low kicks and backs away when Sterling leaps at him with a flying knee. Cejudo dodges a body kick, and he counters with a right hand. Sterling stalks him down and reaches out with a swatting right up high and left to the body. Cejudo tries to catch leg, and he elects to snatch up a body lock and easily take the champ to the mat. Sterling sits up against the wall, and Cejudo holds on in half guard until Sterling sets up butterfly hooks. Cejudo drops down to grab hold of a guillotine choke with Sterling on his knees, and Sterling breaks the grip but is holding Sterling’s head down. Sterling explodes to his feet, and he eats a leg kick and a right hand on the way. Sterling loads up with a body kick, and Cejudo catches it and whiffs with a huge right hand. Sterling snipes him with his superior range, and Cejudo pushes forward into a clinch. Sterling considers a level change, and Cejudo staves it off and again presses on the back of Sterling’s neck to keep him low. They stand up, and Sterling hunts for a single-leg with Cejudo against the cage. The crowd opens up with chants for “Henry” despite Sterling the fighter from the area, and Sterling manages to take that energy and muscle the ex-champ down to his knees. Sterling cannot keep him down or take his back, and he slams a few knees to the side before Cejudo stands. Sterling hits a mat return, and he snatches up back control and gets one hook in. Cejudo looks to break up the leg wrap, and Sterling knees his man in the thigh a few times and swings with a huge punch right before the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sterling

Round 2
Cejudo starts off the second frame with a calf kick, and Sterling greets him with sharp jab and a body kick. Sterling jumps with a switch kick that lands on the shoulder, and Cejudo is still trying to find his distance. Cejudo connects with a calf kick, and Sterling shoots in on him. Sterling shoulder rolls a few punches, and he sticks Cejudo with a straight left. They trade low kicks, and Sterling catches a kick only to get caught with an uppercut to let it go. Cejudo presses the action and shocks Sterling with a head kick, and the champion reels and reaches out with a right hook. Sterling pushes out a front kick, turns to dodge a head kick, and he intercepts Cejudo with a knee to the guts. Sterling surprises his foe with a left hook when faking with a front kick, and he throws kicks to all targets to fluster the ex-flyweight. Sterling shoots in for a takedown, and Cejudo stops it in its tracks with ease. Sterling gets in a left hand, and when Cejudo counters, Sterling is there to catch him with a strike and be out of harm’s way in time. Cejudo puts some mustard into an overhand right, and Sterling jukes and keeps moving. “Funk Master” retains his awkward movement and strange angles, and this allows him to take most of the steam out of the heavy strikes Cejudo throws. Cejudo backs his man up with a straight right to the pectorals, and Sterling spins him around with a calf kick. Cejudo walks into a left hand, and he tries to hop forward with a hook only to get backed off. Sterling quickly spins with an elbow, and Cejudo looks for answers and loads up on a power right. When Sterling ducks away, Cejudo nearly dislodges his dome with a head kick. Sterling slides away and gets a straight left out, and he keeps a high guard to blow what comes back immediately. Sterling digs a punch to the body, and Cejudo replies with a few punches up top. Sterling kicks the side, and Cejudo looks for a takedown only to get shut down. Cejudo wings a monster right hand, and Sterling brushes past it and looks to trip Cejudo down. The wild scramble allows Cejudo to land on top, but the round ends before anything comes from it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sterling

Round 3
Cejudo practically comes out sprinting from his corner, and the two engage in a series of leg kicks. Cejudo breaks this up with one to the ribcage, and Sterling ducks down with a jab. Cejudo times a perfect flying knee that skims off the top of the head, and Sterling drops down to shoot in for a takedown. Cejudo sprawls perfectly and is pushed down to the floor, with no submission or anything from Cejudo. “The Messenger” lets him back up, and Sterling thanks him with a big right hand. Sterling shoots for another takedown, and this time, Cejudo makes him pay for this try with a stern knee. Sterling pursues another from a different angle, and Cejudo defends it and turns his foe around to push him to the fence. Sterling gets off a short knee while they jockey for position, and Sterling trips out a leg and drops Cejudo to the floor. Sterling sneaks his right leg in for a potential hook, and Cejudo hangs onto Sterling’s left arm but cannot keep the gold medalist grounded. Sterling lets him up so that he can smash Cejudo in the face with a clean knee, and he aims one more to the body. Sterling looks for another takedown entry, and Cejudo tosses him out of the way. Sterling lands a left, and Cejudo replies with a right and sprawls to stop a naked takedown. Cejudo nearly circles around to the side, and Sterling answers by switching up for a single. Cejudo keeps his chest pressed on the back of Sterling’s head to stop the takedown from getting anywhere, and he hammers Sterling with a punch before waving Sterling back up. Sterling obliges and they trade body kicks. Sterling fires off a one-two into a level change, and Cejudo stops it but absorbs a pair of flush knees to the torso. Cejudo hits a trip, plopping Sterling on his back with seconds to spare, and he rides out the remainder of the round in the guard.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo

Round 4
The championship rounds are upon them, and Sterling scores a few low kicks to start them off. Sterling swings a left hand, and Cejudo answers with a leg kick. The champ measures a kick to the side, and he loads up with another. Cejudo tries to fire back a low kick, and Sterling strikes the same spot and then has one calf kick checked. Cejudo blocks one and lunges forward, with a right hand connecting before Sterling is able to escape. Sterling sits down on a leg kick, and he follows with a right hand. Cejudo steps in with a knee and two punches, and these two are striking tit-for-tat one after the other. Sterling stings the calf with a shin, prompting Cejudo to charge at him with his fists out to clinch up. Cejudo cannot keep him tied up, and he tosses him away and catches a kick to release a left hand over the top. Sterling sticks out a jab and fails for a takedown, and he nails the calf with another kick. Sterling snaps the head back courtesy of a sharp jab, and Cejudo walks through a kick on his calf to consider a takedown. Sterling breaks free and aims a punch high and a kick low. Cejudo fakes a takedown and walks Sterling down to smack him with a shovel uppercut, and Sterling knees him in the liver. Cejudo grabs the raised leg but cannot elevate him, and Sterling turns the corner and knees his foe in the body. Cejudo whips Sterling around and uses a head lock to drag Sterling to the mat. Sterling pushes through to attack a double, and Cejudo does a whole split but cannot stop Sterling from taking him down. Sterling laces up the leg and lands a few right hands, and Cejudo bursts back up and gets slugged in the chops before the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sterling

Round 5
Sterling points at the ground and says “Let’s go” to start off the last round, and the bantamweights meet in the middle of the cage for five more minutes of combat. Cejudo charges, ignoring a leg kick and launching one up high off the shoulder. Sterling slaps another calf kick to the swollen leg of his opponent, and Cejudo blocks one to his liver to follow. Sterling circles on the outside to avoid the looping strikes of his opponent, and Cejudo steps in with a solid body kick. Sterling gives two right back, and he whiffs on a big right hand. Cejudo charges recklessly, face-first into a right hand, but he pays it no mind as he strikes the side with his shin. Cejudo is pressuring aggressively, and Sterling backs him away with a few punches and a high kick. Cejudo scores a right hand as he comes in, and the fans rain down cheers for “Henry” again. Sterling spins with a back kick as Cejudo is kicking low, breaking up this attack. Cejudo stuns the champ with a left hand, and Sterling blinks it out and fights off a single. Cejudo lets it go and cracks Sterling with a right hand and follows it with a leg kick. Sterling reaches out with a right that misses the mark, and he boots the liver as Cejudo takes a look at the clock. Sterling slips a punch and sticks a straight left out, and Cejudo absorbs a calf kick and stuffs a takedown. Cejudo knees the body a few times and looks to follow it with an uppercut, and Sterling rolls with a punch and gets tied up. Sterling backs away from the advancing Cejudo, who grabs hold of a single and lifts Sterling’s leg in the air. Sterling topples down to his seat, but he powers right back up to his feet with Cejudo holding on from behind. Sterling tries to break the grip, and he spins around to get tied up. Cejudo lets go with clinch punches and knees, and the fight has reached its conclusion. It might go either way, possibly depending on the scoring of the second round. In victory, Sterling becomes the first bantamweight champion in UFC history to record three consecutive title defenses. One of the most underappreciated champs in the company is received by a series of boos, but Sterling lets it slide off like water off a duck’s back.
The defending champ calls out Sean O’Malley for his next challenge, and O’Malley enters the cage wearing a jacket reminiscent of “Thriller” by Michael Jackson. O’Malley steps right up to Sterling’s face and constantly repeats the line “you better do better than that.” UFC head Dana White gets between them, and Sterling calls for O’Malley to be removed from his cage. O’Malley approaches Sterling’s teammate, Merab Dvalishvili, who grabs his jacket, puts it on himself and runs away. Sterling is ready to go help out his teammate should a skirmish break out, with O’Malley hurling expletives and middle fingers until his red coat is returned. The security prevents anything bad from arising, and Sterling takes the mic again and tells O’Malley that they will fight in September. After this cools down, Cejudo is given the microphone, and he removes his gloves. Cejudo expresses his disappointment for the close fight, but holds no ill will towards the man that defeated him. Quoting “Talladega Nights,” Cejudo states that “If I’m not first, I’m last” and says this might be the last time he competes. If he fights again, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo (49-46 Sterling)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo (48-47 Sterling)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo (48-47 Sterling)

The Official Result
Aljamain Sterling def. Henry Cejudo via Split Decision (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Aljamain Sterling

Angelo picks Aljamain Sterling despite acknowledging asterisks on his title wins (illegal knee, split decision, TJ Dillashaw with one arm). He believes Sterling's size and activity will be decisive, as Sterling is a weight bully and has been fighting consistently while Cejudo returns after three years. Angelo is rooting for Cejudo but thinks the layoff and cardio questions are too much to overcome. He notes Cejudo's Olympic wrestling credentials but doubts he can take down the much larger Sterling.

"I have to go with the current champion who is more active who is much larger I have to go with Al Jermaine Sterling here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Aljamain Sterling

Big Brady picks Sterling due to activity, youth, volume, and size advantages. He notes Cejudo's three-year layoff is a major concern, especially at lower weight classes. He acknowledges that if prime Cejudo shows up, he should win, but he's not confident in that. He mentions Sterling's reach and height advantages and that Sterling is in his prime training with Merab Dvalishvili. He says this is his least confident pick on the card and he's likely not betting it.

Least confident pick on the card; likely not betting this fight
"I'm gonna go with Sterling here in this matchup but if we do get Prime sahudo he should win this fight I'm just not sure if we will get that so give me Sterling to win this fight I'll say …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Aljamain Sterling

Cody acknowledges the massive question marks around Henry Cejudo's three-year layoff and whether he can replicate his past success. He gives Sterling advantages in speed, striking, grappling, and recent experience, but notes that Cejudo's constant pressure could exploit Sterling's tendency to fade in later rounds. He suggests playing Sterling live after the first round for a better price rather than betting pre-fight, and only as a small play if nothing else on the card jumps out.

Live betting after first round; only small play on top line
"I just feel like for this price on algeman Sterling I would have to play now not something I'm super confident in I would only put it on the top line just like last week's rookie Simone pick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Henry Cejudo

Connor leans toward Cejudo, citing raw speed as a major factor and noting that Cejudo is the fastest fighter Sterling has faced since Marlon Moraes. He believes Cejudo's pressure and willingness to take risks will be effective, and that Cejudo will land the bigger shots. Connor acknowledges the age and ring rust concerns but is willing to take that flyer.

"So I think I'm going to lean Henry Sahutto here. I'm going to take the age flyer. I'm going to take the time off flyer."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Henry Cejudo

The host believes Henry Cejudo's speed, explosiveness, and defensive grappling will be too much for Aljamain Sterling. He notes that Cejudo is difficult to take down and control, and his calf kicks and power punching could be key. He expects Cejudo to win by knockout in the third or fourth round, assuming he hasn't regressed too much from the layoff.

Cejudo by knockout, round 3 or 4
"I think that suhuru hasn't you know regressed too much after being out of the cage for as long as he has but if he comes by even 90 of what he used to be I think he has a …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Aljamain Sterling

Paul agrees with Cody's reasoning, noting that while Cejudo could return like Jon Jones or GSP, the three-year layoff is a major unknown. He highlights Sterling's seven-inch reach advantage and massive speed advantage from training with Rob Font. He says it's 'algermane or pass' for him but doesn't feel he has an edge betting-wise, so he likely won't place a bet.

"it's it's algermane or pass for me right now but I don't know if I'm going to get to get to it from a betting perspective"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Aljamain Sterling

The Guru leans toward Sterling, citing Cejudo's three-year layoff and age (36) as major factors. He believes Sterling's reach and height advantages will allow him to pick at Cejudo from range with front kicks and jabs. He also notes that Cejudo's wrestling may be neutralized by Sterling's body triangle, which can burn rounds. However, he admits it's a 50-50 fight and hopes Cejudo wins for entertainment, showing low confidence.

"aljo's gonna win it's a 50-50 fight I'm leaning towards Al Jermaine Sterling here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Aljamain Sterling

Zane picks Sterling, noting that he always starts strong with a clear game plan and is underrated for his toughness and resilience. He highlights Sterling's high output, body work, and weapons like knees and uppercuts to counter shorter fighters. Zane acknowledges the risk of Sterling getting caught or fading late, but believes Sterling's grappling danger and ability to take Cejudo's back are key advantages.

"Yeah, I'm going to stick with Alderman Sterling. I mean, I think if I assume ring rest to be a factor at all, all I know is Alderman Sterling always starts."
WIN vs Dominick Cruz
TKO (knee and punches) R2 4:58 · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · May 09, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Henry Cejudo 1 53 of 83 63% 56 of 86 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:14
Dominick Cruz 0 33 of 81 40% 33 of 81 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Henry Cejudo 0 19 of 29 65% 21 of 31 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:08
Dominick Cruz 0 14 of 29 48% 14 of 29 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Henry Cejudo 1 34 of 54 62% 35 of 55 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:06
Dominick Cruz 0 19 of 52 36% 19 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Henry Cejudo 53 of 83 63% 24 of 50 6 of 8 23 of 25 44 of 70 0 of 2 9 of 11
Dominick Cruz 33 of 81 40% 15 of 58 8 of 11 10 of 12 31 of 78 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Henry Cejudo 19 of 29 65% 3 of 10 2 of 3 14 of 16 18 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1
Dominick Cruz 14 of 29 48% 4 of 16 6 of 7 4 of 6 14 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Henry Cejudo 34 of 54 62% 21 of 40 4 of 5 9 of 9 26 of 42 0 of 2 8 of 10
Dominick Cruz 19 of 52 36% 11 of 42 2 of 4 6 of 6 17 of 49 2 of 3 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

Big Brady picks Dominick Cruz as an underdog, citing his movement, speed, volume, and takedown defense. He believes Cruz can outpoint Cejudo if he avoids Cejudo's power and the fight stays on the feet. He sees value in Cruz at plus 185 and plans to bet it, predicting a close decision win.

Cruz by decision; Cruz plus 185; will bet that
"I'm going to be taking Dominic Cruz here. ... I think he's going to be the more active fighter as long as he avoids that huge right hand from Cejudo."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Henry Cejudo

Daniel Levi is extremely confident in Henry Cejudo, calling him an all-time great and dismissing Cruz's chances. He highlights Cejudo's wins over DJ, TJ, and Moraes, and his championship adjustments. Levi believes Cruz is in denial, hasn't evolved, and will be finished within two rounds, noting that Cejudo will pounce if he drops Cruz, unlike Cody Garbrandt.

finishes Cruz within two rounds
"Henry cejudo will put down many crews down within two rounds and he's gonna be the first guy to stop him with strikes"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 6, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

Matt picks Cruz as an underdog, citing his footwork, height advantage, and ability to frustrate Cejudo. He questions Cejudo's striking entries and recovery from shoulder surgery, and believes Cruz can win a decision. He sees value at plus money but is not betting due to other viable dogs on the card.

Dominick Cruz by decision
"I'm picking Dominick Cruz to win by a decision the bet would be Dominick Cruz if he can get him at plus 200"
WIN vs Marlon Moraes
TKO (punches) R3 4:51 · UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes · Jun 08, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Henry Cejudo 0 90 of 171 52% 99 of 182 1 of 4 25% 1 0 2:40
Marlon Moraes 0 57 of 119 47% 59 of 121 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Henry Cejudo 0 5 of 22 22% 5 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Marlon Moraes 0 16 of 37 43% 16 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Henry Cejudo 0 38 of 84 45% 41 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Moraes 0 31 of 59 52% 31 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Henry Cejudo 0 47 of 65 72% 53 of 73 1 of 3 33% 1 0 2:40
Marlon Moraes 0 10 of 23 43% 12 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Henry Cejudo 90 of 171 52% 73 of 150 13 of 16 4 of 5 45 of 118 19 of 23 26 of 30
Marlon Moraes 57 of 119 47% 35 of 89 7 of 8 15 of 22 54 of 116 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Henry Cejudo 5 of 22 22% 3 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 3 5 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Moraes 16 of 37 43% 4 of 20 3 of 3 9 of 14 16 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Henry Cejudo 38 of 84 45% 31 of 75 5 of 7 2 of 2 27 of 70 11 of 14 0 of 0
Marlon Moraes 31 of 59 52% 24 of 50 1 of 2 6 of 7 30 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Henry Cejudo 47 of 65 72% 39 of 56 8 of 9 0 of 0 13 of 26 8 of 9 26 of 30
Marlon Moraes 10 of 23 43% 7 of 19 3 of 3 0 of 1 8 of 21 1 of 1 1 of 1
TKO (punches) R1 0:32 · UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · Jan 19, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Henry Cejudo 1 18 of 23 78% 18 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
T.J. Dillashaw 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Henry Cejudo 1 18 of 23 78% 18 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
T.J. Dillashaw 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Henry Cejudo 18 of 23 78% 17 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 17
T.J. Dillashaw 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Henry Cejudo 18 of 23 78% 17 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 17
T.J. Dillashaw 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Decision (split) (48–47, 47–48, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2 · Aug 04, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Henry Cejudo 0 81 of 134 60% 121 of 174 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:36
Demetrious Johnson 0 51 of 147 34% 80 of 178 3 of 11 27% 0 0 4:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Henry Cejudo 0 21 of 32 65% 21 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Demetrious Johnson 0 4 of 29 13% 4 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Henry Cejudo 0 15 of 29 51% 30 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Demetrious Johnson 0 11 of 33 33% 19 of 42 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:29
3 Henry Cejudo 0 20 of 28 71% 32 of 40 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Demetrious Johnson 0 10 of 30 33% 12 of 32 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:09
4 Henry Cejudo 0 9 of 18 50% 18 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Demetrious Johnson 0 9 of 19 47% 22 of 32 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:14
5 Henry Cejudo 0 16 of 27 59% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Demetrious Johnson 0 17 of 36 47% 23 of 43 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Henry Cejudo 81 of 134 60% 23 of 62 19 of 21 39 of 51 73 of 125 7 of 8 1 of 1
Demetrious Johnson 51 of 147 34% 29 of 116 18 of 25 4 of 6 31 of 120 17 of 22 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Henry Cejudo 21 of 32 65% 5 of 10 4 of 6 12 of 16 20 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
Demetrious Johnson 4 of 29 13% 4 of 28 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 24 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Henry Cejudo 15 of 29 51% 4 of 11 5 of 5 6 of 13 14 of 27 1 of 2 0 of 0
Demetrious Johnson 11 of 33 33% 5 of 24 5 of 7 1 of 2 9 of 30 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Henry Cejudo 20 of 28 71% 5 of 13 6 of 6 9 of 9 17 of 25 2 of 2 1 of 1
Demetrious Johnson 10 of 30 33% 6 of 24 3 of 4 1 of 2 8 of 27 2 of 3 0 of 0
4 Henry Cejudo 9 of 18 50% 3 of 12 1 of 1 5 of 5 8 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
Demetrious Johnson 9 of 19 47% 5 of 15 3 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 11 2 of 3 3 of 5
5 Henry Cejudo 16 of 27 59% 6 of 16 3 of 3 7 of 8 14 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0
Demetrious Johnson 17 of 36 47% 9 of 25 7 of 10 1 of 1 9 of 28 8 of 8 0 of 0
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili, citing his insane conditioning and relentless chain wrestling. He notes Henry Cejudo gave up four takedowns to Aljamain Sterling and expects Merab to take him down repeatedly. He is rooting for Cejudo but believes Merab's style is the worst matchup for him in the division.

"morab is going to be the pick I will be rooting big time for Henry cejudo here but you got to go morab"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Big Brady picks Merab Dvalishvili to win by decision. He praises Merab's relentless pace and volume, referencing his record 49 takedown attempts against Petr Yan. He believes Cejudo, at 37 and coming off a layoff, will struggle to keep up. He compares it to the Jose Aldo fight where Merab lost all takedowns but still won via pressure and cage control. He expects a similar outcome here.

Merab by decision
"I'm taking Mor Rob here I'm taking Mor Rob by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Henry Cejudo

Cody leans toward Cejudo as an underdog, thinking his Olympic-level wrestling could neutralize Merab's takedown-heavy game. He notes that Cejudo is a natural flyweight and may not be outsized by Merab. He questions whether Merab's wrestling will be effective against a gold medalist. He sees value in Cejudo at plus money.

"I have interest in the underdog Henry cejudo um just because I think he obviously being a Olympic champion in wrestling can maybe thwart uh Mor's best path to Victory which is nonstop attacking takedowns."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Daniel Vreeland picks Merab Dvalishvili, emphasizing his youth, cardio, and relentless pace. He notes Merab's 49 takedown attempts against Petr Yan and his ability to outwork opponents. He questions Cejudo's motivation and training situation, suggesting he is not in the same shape as during his championship run. He believes Merab's pressure and volume will fatigue Cejudo and lead to a decision win.

"I think Merab is going to win too... I think he gets it done here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Dvalishvili's high cardio, pace, and output overwhelm opponents, forcing mistakes. Cejudo has technical advantages but his prime is past. Expects Dvalishvili to win by decision.

"give me deales fi by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Paul picks Merab, citing his non-stop pressure and takedown volume. He notes that Merab's wrestling is his staple, and even if he doesn't hold Cejudo down, the constant takedown attempts will wear on Cejudo. He references Merab's win over Petr Yan, where he attempted 49 takedowns, and his ability to out-strike Aldo without any takedowns. He believes Merab's cardio and pace will be too much for Cejudo.

"yeah man because that ability to just keep going the non-stop pressure in the action so I I think that that eventually grinds away as audo and uh gives him a points Victory."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

The MMA Guru picks Merab Dvalishvili, citing his size advantage, cardio, and pressure. He notes Cejudo's inactivity and overthinking in the Aljamain Sterling fight. He believes Merab's grappling and pace will annoy Cejudo, even if Cejudo gets back up. He mentions a conspiracy about Cejudo firing his coach, but ultimately trusts Merab's momentum.

"I'm going with Merab... Morab's got not that bad standup... monstrous cardio and you're giving him a size and mass advantage over Cejudo."