Career Averages - Merab Dvalishvili
Career Averages - Henry Cejudo
Merab Dvalishvili
Henry Cejudo
Merab Dvalishvili - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 134 of 383 | 34% | 196 of 458 | 2 of 29 | 6% | 2 | 1 | 5:12 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 139 of 230 | 60% | 159 of 251 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 2:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 22 of 68 | 32% | 40 of 87 | 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 17 of 32 | 53% | 23 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 19 of 73 | 26% | 41 of 97 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:06 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 21 of 34 | 61% | 25 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 21 of 62 | 33% | 32 of 77 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 25 of 46 | 54% | 33 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 4 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 37 of 71 | 52% | 43 of 80 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 38 of 55 | 69% | 40 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 | |
| 5 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 35 of 109 | 32% | 40 of 117 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 38 of 63 | 60% | 38 of 63 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 134 of 383 | 34% | 105 of 341 | 22 of 34 | 7 of 8 | 116 of 353 | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 |
| Petr Yan | 139 of 230 | 60% | 109 of 195 | 17 of 19 | 13 of 16 | 119 of 204 | 18 of 24 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 22 of 68 | 32% | 16 of 60 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 63 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Petr Yan | 17 of 32 | 53% | 15 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 19 of 73 | 26% | 19 of 71 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 69 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Petr Yan | 21 of 34 | 61% | 18 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 21 of 62 | 33% | 18 of 57 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 52 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Petr Yan | 25 of 46 | 54% | 20 of 40 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 34 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 2 | |
| 4 | Merab Dvalishvili | 37 of 71 | 52% | 28 of 60 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 34 of 67 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Petr Yan | 38 of 55 | 69% | 28 of 44 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 32 of 48 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Merab Dvalishvili | 35 of 109 | 32% | 24 of 93 | 8 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 32 of 102 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Petr Yan | 38 of 63 | 60% | 28 of 50 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 8 | 33 of 57 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili, emphasizing his insane pace, cardio, and improvement since the first fight. He questions what has changed for Petr Yan to win the rematch, noting that Merab dominated the first fight with 11 takedowns. He believes Merab's pressure and takedowns will be too much for Yan again, and he is surprised the odds are only -450.
Big Brady picks Merab Dvalishvili, noting his dominant performance in the first fight. He acknowledges Yan may have been compromised but still favors Dvalishvili's wrestling and pace. He expects Dvalishvili to win by decision, as he always does.
Cody is fully behind Merab, citing his relentless wrestling and pace. He notes that Merab took Yan down 11 times in their first fight and has since dominated Olympic gold medalist Cejudo and Umar. He believes Merab will again win by decision, as Yan is durable and hard to finish. He mentions the decision prop at minus 300 but prefers the money line.
Connor argues that Merab has only improved since their first fight, becoming a more purposeful striker who uses takedown threats effectively. He notes that Petr Yan has lost the aggressive instinct that once allowed him to change fights with single shots, and now fights more cautiously, which plays into Merab's relentless pace. Connor believes Yan's multi-stage game can be disrupted by Merab's constant pressure, making it hard for Yan to build initiative. He concludes that while Yan has the power to win, it's a lot to gamble on.
Daniel believes Merab's relentless pace and takedown volume will overwhelm Petr Yan, who tends to take rounds off to make reads. He notes Merab's improvements since their first fight, including 20 takedowns against Cory Sandhagen. Daniel doubts Yan can bridge the output gap and sees Merab as the clear best bantamweight. He mentions the fight is a pass for betting due to poor odds on Merab.
Lucrative James acknowledges Merab's dominance but believes the betting line of -450 is too wide. He notes Petr Yan was likely injured in the first fight and has had time to recover. He thinks Yan can compete in minutes and moments, potentially squeaking out a decision win. He emphasizes value betting and picks Yan at +350 odds.
The host notes that Dvalishvili won the first fight easily as a +250 underdog and is now a -450 favorite for good reason. He expects Yan to be more aggressive but believes Dvalishvili's pace, pressure, and activity will make it hard for Yan to land impactful shots, leading to a decision win for Dvalishvili.
Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Merab's wrestling and decision victory. He points out that Yan has lost rounds to lesser fighters like Song Dong and Marcus McGhee, while Merab has only improved. He notes that Yan is a slow starter and Merab's pressure negates his striking combinations. He concludes that Merab by decision is the play.
The Guru picks Merab Dvalishvili over Petr Yan, despite the wide odds. He notes Merab's relentless takedown volume and cardio will overwhelm Yan, though Yan will have moments. The Guru predicts a 48-47 decision for Merab.
Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that Merab's style heavily favors him. He points out that Yan's game relies on building initiative through counter-punching and then pressuring, but Merab never allows that foothold. Zane notes that even when Yan defends takedowns well, Merab's constant attacks prevent Yan from establishing his own offense. He highlights that Yan's last three fights show a loss of confidence and aggression, making it unlikely he can replicate the moments of violence that defined his prime.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 114 of 265 | 43% | 243 of 399 | 20 of 37 | 54% | 0 | 0 | 10:02 |
| Cory Sandhagen | 0 | 80 of 184 | 43% | 149 of 257 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 11 of 46 | 23% | 32 of 67 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
| Cory Sandhagen | 0 | 27 of 53 | 50% | 58 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 33 of 49 | 67% | 73 of 92 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 0 | 0 | 3:43 |
| Cory Sandhagen | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 23 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 15 of 48 | 31% | 46 of 80 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
| Cory Sandhagen | 0 | 14 of 35 | 40% | 24 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 21 of 56 | 37% | 31 of 66 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 |
| Cory Sandhagen | 0 | 19 of 43 | 44% | 21 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 34 of 66 | 51% | 61 of 94 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Cory Sandhagen | 0 | 18 of 44 | 40% | 23 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 114 of 265 | 43% | 86 of 231 | 13 of 18 | 15 of 16 | 79 of 220 | 22 of 27 | 13 of 18 |
| Cory Sandhagen | 80 of 184 | 43% | 46 of 143 | 18 of 23 | 16 of 18 | 80 of 184 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 11 of 46 | 23% | 9 of 42 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Cory Sandhagen | 27 of 53 | 50% | 14 of 39 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 10 | 27 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 33 of 49 | 67% | 33 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 25 | 8 of 10 | 9 of 14 |
| Cory Sandhagen | 2 of 9 | 22% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 15 of 48 | 31% | 12 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 45 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Cory Sandhagen | 14 of 35 | 40% | 7 of 28 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Merab Dvalishvili | 21 of 56 | 37% | 9 of 42 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 8 | 17 of 52 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Cory Sandhagen | 19 of 43 | 44% | 12 of 34 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Merab Dvalishvili | 34 of 66 | 51% | 23 of 54 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 23 of 53 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 4 |
| Cory Sandhagen | 18 of 44 | 40% | 12 of 36 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili, acknowledging that Cory Sandhagen is a tough matchup with good skills everywhere. He believes Merab's non-stop chain wrestling and cardio are his biggest weapons, and that Sandhagen is better than Sean O'Malley but still likely to lose. He notes that Sandhagen's cardio slowed against Umar, and that Merab's pressure will be overwhelming.
Big Brady thinks the fight will be competitive but clear in favor of Dvalishvili. He notes that Sandhagen has advantages in height, reach, and striking, but Dvalishvili's wrestling and ability to dictate where the fight takes place will be key. He expects Dvalishvili to win by decision, possibly 49-46 or 48-47. He does not like the line but is not picking against Dvalishvili.
Connor picks Dvalishvili, agreeing with Zane that Sandhagen's physicality is a major concern. He highlights that Sandhagen's best path is to pressure Merab and keep him on the back foot, but even then, Merab's wrestling and durability make it hard to win a decision. Connor also notes that Sandhagen lacks finishing power at the highest level, making it unlikely he stops Merab.
The host expects a classic Dvalishvili performance with takedowns and control time, possibly threatening submissions, but Sandhagen will be too slippery to catch, leading to a decision win for Dvalishvili.
The MMA Guru picks Merab Dvalishvili, citing his relentless pace, takedowns, and improving striking. He notes Cory Sandhagen's lack of finishing ability and tendency to leave fights close. He predicts a 49-46 or 48-47 decision.
Zane picks Dvalishvili because he believes Sandhagen lacks the physicality to consistently win scrambles and wrestling exchanges against Merab. He notes that Sandhagen has struggled against elite wrestlers like Umar Nurmagomedov and that Merab's endless cardio and improved striking make him a nightmare matchup. Zane also points out that even if Sandhagen has a good round or two, he is unlikely to finish Merab and will likely be worn down over five rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 52 of 115 | 45% | 141 of 215 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 1 | 0 | 6:29 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 38 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 17 of 37 | 45% | 48 of 72 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:54 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 16 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 23 of 63 | 36% | 24 of 64 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 19 of 33 | 57% | 19 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 12 of 15 | 80% | 69 of 79 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 4:18 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 52 of 115 | 45% | 33 of 92 | 13 of 14 | 6 of 9 | 29 of 86 | 8 of 10 | 15 of 19 |
| Sean O'Malley | 31 of 57 | 54% | 14 of 35 | 15 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 30 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 17 of 37 | 45% | 10 of 30 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 27 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 7 |
| Sean O'Malley | 12 of 23 | 52% | 5 of 15 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 23 of 63 | 36% | 18 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 7 | 20 of 58 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean O'Malley | 19 of 33 | 57% | 9 of 19 | 9 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 12 of 15 | 80% | 5 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 12 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo believes the first fight was a clear win for Merab, not close as some recall. He thinks Sean's camp is already making excuses by calling Merab the GOAT. He sees no significant improvements from Sean and expects the same pressure wrestling and cardio to overwhelm Sean again. He dismisses concerns about Merab's toe injury as irrelevant.
Big Brady picks Merab Dvalishvili but is very hesitant. He believes Merab should win easily based on his wrestling, but worries about corrupt judges giving rounds to O'Malley if the fight is close. He notes that O'Malley was compromised in the first fight and that the UFC wants O'Malley to win. He ultimately goes with his gut that Merab gets it done by decision, but hates the price tag and suggests O'Malley plus 5.5 might be a good look.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Merab. He emphasizes that O'Malley's instinctual reactions in wrestling are a deep-seated issue that will be hard to overcome. Connor notes that O'Malley's go-to defense of giving up his back and handfighting works against lesser wrestlers but is suicide against Merab. He thinks O'Malley can improve but still loses.
Dvalishvili's high pressure, high pace, and insane cardio are too much for most opponents. Even if O'Malley learned from their first matchup, he won't be able to set up his traps or striking wizardry. Dvalishvili will control the fight, grind it out, and win on the scorecards to remain champion.
The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley to win by TKO or decision, citing adjustments and O'Malley's freshness. He believes the first fight was close and O'Malley can improve his takedown defense. He notes Merab's activity and lack of motivation, and thinks O'Malley's striking will be the difference. He predicts O'Malley wins rounds 1, 3, and 5, and possibly gets a TKO in the second or third round. He also mentions potential judging favoritism for O'Malley.
Zane picks Merab Dvalishvili, noting that O'Malley's wrestling defense is fundamentally flawed against Merab's relentless pressure. He believes O'Malley will be better prepared but still expects Merab to force him into a defensive shell and win via pace and takedowns. Zane references the Umar fight as evidence that Merab can be pushed but still wins.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 111 of 259 | 42% | 142 of 293 | 7 of 30 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 2:22 |
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 104 of 237 | 43% | 113 of 246 | 2 of 15 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 20 of 47 | 42% | 21 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 18 of 49 | 36% | 18 of 49 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 20 of 49 | 40% | 27 of 58 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 25 of 47 | 53% | 26 of 48 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 21 of 54 | 38% | 25 of 58 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 22 of 48 | 45% | 25 of 51 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 4 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 36 of 70 | 51% | 48 of 82 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 |
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 21 of 47 | 44% | 26 of 52 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 5 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 14 of 39 | 35% | 21 of 47 | 2 of 12 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 |
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 18 of 46 | 39% | 18 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 111 of 259 | 42% | 71 of 207 | 30 of 37 | 10 of 15 | 88 of 219 | 22 of 37 | 1 of 3 |
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 104 of 237 | 43% | 76 of 199 | 22 of 30 | 6 of 8 | 92 of 219 | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 20 of 47 | 42% | 10 of 35 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 13 of 39 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 18 of 49 | 36% | 11 of 38 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 20 of 49 | 40% | 12 of 37 | 7 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 38 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 1 |
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 25 of 47 | 53% | 18 of 38 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 37 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 21 of 54 | 38% | 14 of 43 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 17 of 49 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 22 of 48 | 45% | 17 of 40 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 20 of 43 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Merab Dvalishvili | 36 of 70 | 51% | 25 of 57 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 58 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 1 |
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 21 of 47 | 44% | 18 of 44 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Merab Dvalishvili | 14 of 39 | 35% | 10 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 18 of 46 | 39% | 12 of 39 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov, citing his superior wrestling and striking compared to Merab Dvalishvili. He believes Umar's kicks and range management will keep Merab at bay, and his scramble skills will neutralize Merab's takedown attempts. He notes that Merab's cardio is a factor but thinks Umar's overall skills will win out.
Cody picks Umar Nurmagomedov but is hesitant due to the price. He believes Umar has the style to beat Merab, with superior wrestling and striking, and can thwart takedowns. However, he notes Merab's incredible pace and durability, and that Umar's line is too high. Cody also points out that Merab has been taken down before and struggles off his back, but Umar's lack of top competition and the value on Merab give him pause.
Connor picks Umar Nurmagomedov, emphasizing his excellent boxing, jab, and ability to maintain range. He notes that Umar has faced similar pressure fighters before (like Cody Stamann and Raoni Barcelos) and shut them down with his positional striking. Connor warns that Merab's unique cardio and pace make him dangerous, but Umar's technical striking and takedown defense should allow him to win rounds. He also points out that Umar cannot afford to make the same mistakes he made against Cory Sandhagen, where he took risky scrambles. Connor believes Umar's game plan of using the jab and staying at range is the key to beating Merab.
Daniel picks Umar but is hesitant, acknowledging Merab's proven ability to make great fighters look human. He notes Umar's striking edge and length, and believes the grappling will neutralize itself. However, he is concerned about Merab's pace and toughness, and mentions that Merab has been hurt on the feet before. Daniel ultimately goes with Umar to become the new champion but says he is not betting on the fight.
Lucrative James picks Umar Nurmagomedov to become champion, citing his long-held belief in Umar's potential and his superior striking, range control, and jiu-jitsu. He acknowledges Merab's legendary cardio and pressure as major threats, but questions whether Merab can impose his physicality and wrestling on Umar, who is a strong wrestler himself. James notes Umar's lack of adversity faced as a concern, but credits his skill for avoiding trouble. He sees Umar having finishing upside via submission or back takes, while Merab's path likely relies on pace and volume in later rounds.
The host thinks Dvalishvili is up against it coming back quickly after winning the title in September. He believes Nurmagomedov will stifle Dvalishvili's high activity, stop takedowns, land better output, and possibly knock him down. He expects Nurmagomedov to win on the scorecards and become the new champion.
Paul leans Umar but is not confident due to the price. He acknowledges Merab's skills but believes Umar's wrestling and striking are superior. Paul notes that Merab's takedown-heavy style may not work against a wrestler of Umar's caliber, and that Merab has been taken down before. However, he also points out that Umar hasn't fought elite competition and the line is too high, making Merab a value play.
The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win by TKO in round two or three. He believes Umar is more dynamic on the feet with better finishing potential, and can stuff Merab's takedowns. He expects Umar to land a question mark kick or front kick for a KO. He also notes Merab's age and quick turnaround may be factors.
Zane also picks Umar, agreeing with Connor's reasoning. He highlights Umar's excellent boxing and jab, and his experience against pressure fighters. Zane notes that Merab's lack of a range striking game is a major weakness, and Umar has the tools to exploit it. He cautions that Merab's cardio and relentless pace make him dangerous, but Umar's ability to keep the fight at range and stuff takedowns should give him the edge. Zane also mentions that the odds are too wide, but he still believes Umar is the right pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 47 of 89 | 52% | 49 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 82 of 164 | 50% | 214 of 310 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 10:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 14 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 16 of 30 | 53% | 25 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 18 of 38 | 47% | 65 of 92 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:12 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 17 of 38 | 44% | 25 of 46 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 | |
| 4 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 21 of 32 | 65% | 74 of 89 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:37 | |
| 5 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 10 of 26 | 38% | 25 of 42 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 47 of 89 | 52% | 22 of 48 | 23 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 45 of 85 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Sean O'Malley | 82 of 164 | 50% | 55 of 130 | 4 of 6 | 23 of 28 | 29 of 85 | 8 of 14 | 45 of 65 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 14 of 28 | 50% | 6 of 16 | 6 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean O'Malley | 16 of 30 | 53% | 13 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 18 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 7 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 5 of 10 | 50% | 3 of 5 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Sean O'Malley | 18 of 38 | 47% | 14 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 31 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 11 of 21 | 52% | 7 of 13 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean O'Malley | 17 of 38 | 44% | 6 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 12 | 11 of 29 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | |
| 4 | Merab Dvalishvili | 6 of 9 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Sean O'Malley | 21 of 32 | 65% | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 19 | |
| 5 | Merab Dvalishvili | 11 of 21 | 52% | 2 of 8 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Sean O'Malley | 10 of 26 | 38% | 2 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 9 | 5 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 7 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dvalishvili (-285), O'Malley (+230)
Round 1
The main event will be refereed by Jason Herzog. O'Malley starts off with a spinning back kick to the body. Dvalishvili is able to walk O'Malley back towards the cage. Nice jab by O'Malley, who is also going to the body with punches from afar. Dvalishvili is eating jabs, having some issues with closing the distance early. O'Malley is keeping space with kicks and his jab. Dvalishvili is keeping the pressure on, forcing O'Malley to constantly move. A right hand for Dvalishvili lands, and the champion is then able to get a takedown. O'Malley is quick to get back up, although he grabs the fence. Dvalishvili stays clinched and leans a knee. O'Malley lands his own knee, but gets off-balance and slips. Dvalishvili lands a nice left hook before going for a double-leg takedown. O'Malley does a good job defending, but Dvalishvili is able to pick him up anyhow. Dvalishvili is in full guard. Dvalishvili slips in an elbow and several short hammerfists.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Round 2
O'Malley takes the center of the cage. Dvalishvili lands a body kick, while O'Malley misses a spinning back kick. A nice right hand to the body for "Suga." Dvalishvili counters O'Malley with two stinging right hands. O'Malley answers back with a strong right hand of his own. Dvalishvili is throwing kicks to the body. O'Malley's movement is much better this round. O'Malley lands a nice jab. Dvalishvili goes for a takedown, but O'Malley escapes from the cage. The round hits the halfway mark. O'Malley jabs to the body. Dvalishvili goes for another takedown, but O'Malley shucks him off and lands a nice left hand. Much better round for the challenger. Dvalishvili lands a right hand and goes for a takedown, but eats a left hand while entering. O'Malley is able to stay upright and hits the champ with a straight right as he exits. A big right hand for Dvalishvili, who keeps the pressure on as the round ends. Much closer round.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Round 3
15 minutes to go. Dvalishvili opens with an overhand right and rushes the challenger. O'Malley lands a solid counter, but Dvalishvili keeps the pressure on and dumps "Suga" to the ground. Dvalishvili is in guard. O'Malley is too happy to sit in guard and is just allowing Dvalishvili to be in control. Dvalishvili is landing shots to the body and slips an elbow in. A lot of time is getting eaten up. Dvalishvili advances into half guard. O'Malley gives up his back in order to get to his feet. Dvalishvili lands a slick knee to the head. Dvalishvili puts O'Malley immediately back down after he gets back to his feet. The fight is fully in Dvalishvili's control. Dvalishvili is in half guard and landing punches with 30 seconds left. Dvalishvili scrambles well into north-south position and is able to lock in a modified guillotine choke. This looks tight, and O'Malley taps. It's over, and Dvalishvili retains with his second-ever submission win.
The Official Result
Merab Dvalishvili def. Sean O'Malley via Submission (Modified Guillotine Choke); R3, 4:42.
Angelo picks Sean O'Malley but does not bet. He notes O'Malley has incredible accuracy and power, and only needs one shot to finish, while Merab has a suspect chin and a cut over his eye plus possible staph infection that could affect his cardio. However, he acknowledges that a healthy Merab could shoot 550 takedowns and win a boring decision. He is on O'Malley's side but too much of a coward to bet, though he mentions Jacob has bet on O'Malley.
Big Brady picks O'Malley, emphasizing damage over control. He notes Dvalishvili's game is takedown attempts with little damage, while O'Malley has power and finishing ability. He predicts O'Malley will land big shots and possibly knock out Dvalishvili in the second round, though a damage-based decision is also possible.
Cody believes Merab's wrestling and cardio will be too much for O'Malley, especially given O'Malley's inactivity and injury concerns. He notes that O'Malley's takedown defense hasn't improved enough and that Merab can make the fight look easier by pushing the pace early. He sees a unanimous decision win for Merab.
Daniel picks Sean O'Malley to win, citing O'Malley's superior striking accuracy, footwork, and ability to fight going backwards. He believes O'Malley's teep kicks and straight shots will counter Merab's looping punches and pressure. Daniel also notes O'Malley's brown belt under Cesar Gracie and dismisses cardio concerns, but acknowledges Merab's takedown volume could be a factor if he closes distance.
Daniel Vreeland picks Sean O'Malley, emphasizing that Merab takes a shot in almost every fight and O'Malley will land that one. He notes Merab's top control is not great and people get back up, differentiating him from Aljamain Sterling. He believes O'Malley is getting an easier fight than against Sterling because Merab is more hitable and susceptible to being countered.
Jeff Fox picks Sean O'Malley because he is a striker with a big reach advantage and has cleared every hurdle. He acknowledges Merab could take him down and grind out a win, but believes O'Malley can piece him up on the feet and has shown solid grappling.
Lucrative James believes the odds are slightly off, with Merab as a -305 favorite. He notes that Sean O'Malley has more margin for improvement after a close first fight where he hurt Merab in the fifth round. He sees value in O'Malley at +255 and plans to bet him, though he acknowledges Merab's wrestling and cardio make him the likely winner. He emphasizes betting value over picking the winner.
Dvalishvili has shown great durability and will stick on O'Malley like white on rice, not giving him the space to generate knockout power. Expects Dvalishvili to put O'Malley through the ringer, possibly approaching 50 takedown attempts, and win on the scorecards.
Paul thinks Merab's game plan is clear and that O'Malley's only chance is a puncher's chance. He points out that O'Malley hasn't fought since the first loss and has been nursing injuries, while Merab has been active and improving. He expects Merab to control the fight with wrestling and win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley by TKO in the first or second round. He notes Merab has a staph infection and a cut over his eye, which could be exploited. He believes O'Malley's footwork and takedown defense will neutralize Merab's wrestling, and that O'Malley's upward knees and left hook will be key. He also suggests the UFC may favor O'Malley and that an early stoppage is possible if Merab gets hurt.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 74 of 172 | 43% | 167 of 273 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 1 | 0 | 4:23 |
| Henry Cejudo | 0 | 29 of 78 | 37% | 54 of 106 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 42 of 59 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Henry Cejudo | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 36 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:53 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 34 of 78 | 43% | 49 of 94 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:46 |
| Henry Cejudo | 0 | 9 of 29 | 31% | 9 of 29 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 24 of 62 | 38% | 76 of 120 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:24 |
| Henry Cejudo | 0 | 9 of 29 | 31% | 9 of 29 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 74 of 172 | 43% | 44 of 128 | 20 of 34 | 10 of 10 | 51 of 134 | 13 of 24 | 10 of 14 |
| Henry Cejudo | 29 of 78 | 37% | 13 of 54 | 5 of 11 | 11 of 13 | 24 of 68 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 16 of 32 | 50% | 9 of 22 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 23 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
| Henry Cejudo | 11 of 20 | 55% | 4 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 34 of 78 | 43% | 22 of 61 | 9 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 64 | 1 of 6 | 6 of 8 |
| Henry Cejudo | 9 of 29 | 31% | 6 of 22 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 24 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 24 of 62 | 38% | 13 of 45 | 7 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 47 | 6 of 10 | 3 of 5 |
| Henry Cejudo | 9 of 29 | 31% | 3 of 19 | 0 of 3 | 6 of 7 | 9 of 26 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili, citing his insane conditioning and relentless chain wrestling. He notes Henry Cejudo gave up four takedowns to Aljamain Sterling and expects Merab to take him down repeatedly. He is rooting for Cejudo but believes Merab's style is the worst matchup for him in the division.
Big Brady picks Merab Dvalishvili to win by decision. He praises Merab's relentless pace and volume, referencing his record 49 takedown attempts against Petr Yan. He believes Cejudo, at 37 and coming off a layoff, will struggle to keep up. He compares it to the Jose Aldo fight where Merab lost all takedowns but still won via pressure and cage control. He expects a similar outcome here.
Cody leans toward Cejudo as an underdog, thinking his Olympic-level wrestling could neutralize Merab's takedown-heavy game. He notes that Cejudo is a natural flyweight and may not be outsized by Merab. He questions whether Merab's wrestling will be effective against a gold medalist. He sees value in Cejudo at plus money.
Daniel Vreeland picks Merab Dvalishvili, emphasizing his youth, cardio, and relentless pace. He notes Merab's 49 takedown attempts against Petr Yan and his ability to outwork opponents. He questions Cejudo's motivation and training situation, suggesting he is not in the same shape as during his championship run. He believes Merab's pressure and volume will fatigue Cejudo and lead to a decision win.
Dvalishvili's high cardio, pace, and output overwhelm opponents, forcing mistakes. Cejudo has technical advantages but his prime is past. Expects Dvalishvili to win by decision.
Paul picks Merab, citing his non-stop pressure and takedown volume. He notes that Merab's wrestling is his staple, and even if he doesn't hold Cejudo down, the constant takedown attempts will wear on Cejudo. He references Merab's win over Petr Yan, where he attempted 49 takedowns, and his ability to out-strike Aldo without any takedowns. He believes Merab's cardio and pace will be too much for Cejudo.
The MMA Guru picks Merab Dvalishvili, citing his size advantage, cardio, and pressure. He notes Cejudo's inactivity and overthinking in the Aljamain Sterling fight. He believes Merab's grappling and pace will annoy Cejudo, even if Cejudo gets back up. He mentions a conspiracy about Cejudo firing his coach, but ultimately trusts Merab's momentum.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 75 of 143 | 52% | 87 of 155 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 147 of 338 | 43% | 202 of 401 | 11 of 49 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 6:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 20 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 22 of 62 | 35% | 35 of 81 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 18 of 35 | 51% | 21 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 35 of 80 | 43% | 41 of 86 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 0:59 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 8 of 27 | 29% | 9 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 15 of 46 | 32% | 22 of 53 | 1 of 14 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 | |
| 4 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 21 of 31 | 67% | 21 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 38 of 75 | 50% | 51 of 88 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 | |
| 5 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 15 of 25 | 60% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 37 of 75 | 49% | 53 of 93 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 75 of 143 | 52% | 41 of 105 | 16 of 19 | 18 of 19 | 66 of 132 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Petr Yan | 147 of 338 | 43% | 91 of 260 | 35 of 52 | 21 of 26 | 129 of 312 | 18 of 26 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 13 of 25 | 52% | 4 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 8 | 11 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Petr Yan | 22 of 62 | 35% | 12 of 48 | 6 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 54 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 18 of 35 | 51% | 6 of 21 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 16 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Petr Yan | 35 of 80 | 43% | 19 of 59 | 8 of 11 | 8 of 10 | 32 of 75 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 8 of 27 | 29% | 5 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 23 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Petr Yan | 15 of 46 | 32% | 10 of 37 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 13 of 41 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Merab Dvalishvili | 21 of 31 | 67% | 15 of 25 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 28 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Petr Yan | 38 of 75 | 50% | 24 of 55 | 10 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 36 of 72 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Merab Dvalishvili | 15 of 25 | 60% | 11 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Petr Yan | 37 of 75 | 49% | 26 of 61 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 33 of 70 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Petr Yan despite acknowledging Merab's relentless wrestling. He believes Yan is the better fighter and will make Merab pay on his entries, using leg kicks and potentially his own takedowns. He compares Yan's situation to Figueiredo's potential downward spiral but notes that many think Yan beat O'Malley and Sterling. He goes with his brain over his gut.
Big Brady picks Petr Yan confidently, calling it a good matchup for him. He highlights Yan's incredible takedown defense and get-up game, and notes Dvalishvili has no control grappling—he can take down but not control. Brady expects Yan to stuff takedowns easier as the fight goes on and finish Dvalishvili with a fourth-round TKO, doing all the damage while Dvalishvili struggles to hold him down.
Cody picks Petr Yan but with hesitation due to the -250 price and Yan's recent performances, especially the close fight with Sean O'Malley. He notes Yan's slow starts and Dvalishvili's fast start, but believes Yan's volume, body attack, and ability to get back up will break Dvalishvili. He recommends live betting after the first round.
Connor picks Petr Yan, emphasizing Yan's superior striking technique, timing, and power. He notes that Yan's left hook is a key weapon against Dvalishvili, who is vulnerable to that punch due to overcommitting. Connor acknowledges Dvalishvili's relentless pressure and cardio but believes Yan's counterpunching and ability to pick his shots will prevail. He also points out that Yan's takedown defense and scrambling are solid enough to avoid being controlled.
I believe Petr Yan's superior technical striking and defensive wrestling will be the difference. Merab's takedown-heavy style relies on volume, but Yan's takedown defense and ability to get back to his feet should neutralize that. Yan's power and leg kicks will slow Merab's explosiveness, leading to a knockout within three rounds. Merab may have moments, but Yan's damage output will outweigh the control time.
Paul picks Petr Yan to win, noting Yan's slow starts but superior skill set and ability to calculate and adjust. He mentions Yan's takedown defense and cardio as key factors, and suggests live betting after the first round when Yan's price may improve. He is hesitant about the -250 line but confident Yan wins.
The MMA Guru picks Petr Yan, believing he is unfinishable and has improved his grappling. He notes that Merab is open on the feet and Yan will capitalize with elbows and shots off the break. He predicts Yan will win by decision or late-round TKO, as Merab's pace may slow and Yan's power will take over. He also mentions referees being anti-clinch, which may hinder Merab's game.
Zane picks Petr Yan, citing Yan's excellent counterpunching and left hook as key advantages. He notes that Dvalishvili is vulnerable to left hooks, as seen in fights against Marlon Moraes and Cody Stamann. Zane also highlights Yan's solid takedown defense and scrambling, which should prevent Dvalishvili from replicating Aljamain Sterling's back-taking game. He expects Yan to time Dvalishvili's entries and land cleaner shots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 38 of 67 | 56% | 59 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 57 of 147 | 38% | 135 of 230 | 0 of 16 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 5:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 15 of 25 | 60% | 21 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 16 of 49 | 32% | 21 of 54 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 25 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 62 of 84 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:54 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 13 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 30 of 69 | 43% | 52 of 92 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 38 of 67 | 56% | 11 of 35 | 21 of 25 | 6 of 7 | 35 of 63 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 57 of 147 | 38% | 20 of 102 | 10 of 14 | 27 of 31 | 43 of 132 | 14 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 15 of 25 | 60% | 1 of 8 | 11 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 16 of 49 | 32% | 2 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 11 of 14 | 15 of 47 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 11 of 22 | 50% | 5 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 11 of 29 | 37% | 5 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 12 of 20 | 60% | 5 of 12 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 30 of 69 | 43% | 13 of 49 | 5 of 7 | 12 of 13 | 19 of 58 | 11 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili over José Aldo, though he admits it's a tough pick and he'll be rooting for Aldo. He highlights Aldo's legendary takedown defense, noting that only Frankie Edgar has taken him down more than once in 27 Zuffa fights. However, Angelo believes that without Aldo's leg kicks to slow Merab's relentless wrestling, Aldo will be defending takedowns all night and likely lose a decision. He emphasizes Merab's insane 7.3 takedowns per 15 minutes and his chain-wrestling style.
Big Brady picks José Aldo as the underdog. He highlights Aldo's 90% takedown defense against elite competition, and believes Merab Dvalishvili's relentless wrestling will be neutralized. Aldo is the clearly better striker and has looked good recently. Brady expects Aldo to stuff takedowns, land more damage on the feet, and win a decision. He notes that Dvalishvili's wins are against lower-level competition and this is a big step up.
Cody picks Aldo as a live underdog, citing Aldo's excellent takedown defense (90% career), striking advantage, and ability to win rounds. He thinks Merab's run is overrated and that Aldo can exploit his aggressive style. He acknowledges it's a close fight but likes the plus money.
Daniel Levi picks Merab Dvalishvili to win a split decision, but he is hesitant because the fight is three rounds instead of five. He notes that Aldo has legendary takedown defense (90% over a long sample size) and will likely win the first round. However, he worries about Aldo's cardio in the elevation of Salt Lake City, as Aldo did not train at altitude. Levi believes Merab's relentless wrestling and pace will wear Aldo down in the second and third rounds, leading to a close decision. He acknowledges that Aldo could win a split decision and that there is value on Aldo as a dog.
Aldo's superior striking, get-up game, and takedown defense should allow him to land more damage than Dvalishvili, who struggles to hold opponents down. The host expects Aldo to win by knockout, possibly similar to the Jack Cartwright fight. He advises only 1 unit due to the risk of a changing of the guard.
Paul picks Merab but is not confident. He thinks Merab's relentless takedown attempts could be key, but notes his poor top control. He mentions he might play Merab over 2.5 takedowns on Prize Picks and prefers live betting.
The Guru predicts José Aldo wins by TKO in the second round. He describes Aldo popping the jab, landing leg kicks, and checking Merab's leg kicks. He sees Aldo stuffing takedowns, landing knees to the body, and eventually hurting Merab with body shots, leading to a TKO. He acknowledges the possibility that Aldo could get mashed up like he did against Yan in the fifth round, but believes his prediction will come true.
Henry Cejudo - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cejudo | 0 | 60 of 116 | 51% | 77 of 136 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 |
| Payton Talbott | 1 | 134 of 217 | 61% | 156 of 240 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 3:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 26 of 49 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Payton Talbott | 0 | 40 of 57 | 70% | 50 of 67 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 | |
| 2 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 18 of 38 | 47% | 30 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:13 |
| Payton Talbott | 1 | 50 of 88 | 56% | 57 of 95 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 | |
| 3 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 20 of 34 | 58% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Payton Talbott | 0 | 44 of 72 | 61% | 49 of 78 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cejudo | 60 of 116 | 51% | 33 of 83 | 10 of 12 | 17 of 21 | 51 of 104 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 2 |
| Payton Talbott | 134 of 217 | 61% | 89 of 167 | 34 of 39 | 11 of 11 | 90 of 168 | 28 of 31 | 16 of 18 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry Cejudo | 22 of 44 | 50% | 11 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 14 | 18 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Payton Talbott | 40 of 57 | 70% | 28 of 45 | 7 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 29 of 46 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 7 | |
| 2 | Henry Cejudo | 18 of 38 | 47% | 11 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 16 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Payton Talbott | 50 of 88 | 56% | 35 of 69 | 13 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 29 of 62 | 12 of 15 | 9 of 11 | |
| 3 | Henry Cejudo | 20 of 34 | 58% | 11 of 25 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 31 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Payton Talbott | 44 of 72 | 61% | 26 of 53 | 14 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 32 of 60 | 12 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Payton Talbott, acknowledging Henry Cejudo's Olympic wrestling credentials but believing Cejudo is too old and past his prime. He notes that Talbott is much larger, athletic, and has improved his wrestling since the Hani Barcelos fight. Angelo expects Talbott to use his size and speed to overwhelm Cejudo, despite his personal admiration for Cejudo.
Big Brady picks Payton Talbott, noting Cejudo's retirement talk, lack of recent wins, and decline. He highlights Talbott's improvements in takedown defense and scrambling after the Barcelos fight. He expects Talbott to win by third-round knockout.
Cody is hesitant but picks Talbott, noting that Cejudo's recent fights show he doesn't wrestle enough. He points out that Cejudo's takedown attempts have declined and he relies on striking, where Talbott has a reach advantage. He mentions that Talbott's wrestling looked improved against Felipe Lima. He is tempted by Cejudo's dog odds but doesn't trust him to wrestle.
Connor picks Talbott, arguing that Cejudo doesn't want to wrestle and will likely revert to his preferred striking. He notes that Talbott has shown improvement in defensive wrestling since the Barcelos fight, and his pressure-volume style is effective. Connor believes Cejudo can hit takedowns but doubts his ability to stick with a wrestling-heavy game plan, especially at 38. He sees Talbott as a younger, more dynamic striker who understands pace and pressure.
Daniel picks Talbott, citing Cejudo's age (38), size disadvantage (5'4 vs 5'10), and decline since retirement. He expects Cejudo to have early success but fade, while Talbott's power and athleticism will take over. He notes Talbott's learning from his first loss and improved confidence.
Lucrative James believes Henry Cejudo is not fully committed to MMA, citing his content creation and retirement talk. He thinks Talbott's relentless pressure and body work will wear down Cejudo, especially in rounds 2 and 3. He notes Talbott's presence and striking flow are exceptional and predicts a round 3 stoppage or decision win.
The host expects the fight to be more competitive than the -255 odds suggest but still picks Talbott to land more effective damage and do enough defensive grappling to keep Cejudo from grinding. He predicts a decision win for Talbott.
Paul picks Talbott, echoing Cody's concerns about Cejudo's wrestling. He notes that Cejudo's best wins came against older or smaller opponents and that he hasn't knocked anyone out since 2020. He believes Talbott's length and accuracy will cause problems for Cejudo, who is reluctant to shoot takedowns. He thinks Talbott wins by decision or TKO.
The Guru picks Henry Cejudo as a +230 underdog over Payton Talbott. He believes Talbott is being pushed too fast and Cejudo's experience and chin will be too much. The Guru predicts a 29-28 decision win for Cejudo.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Cejudo's career shows a reluctance to wrestle unless forced. He points out that Talbott's game is built on pressure and volume, similar to Colby Covington's approach, but with actual striking talent. Zane believes Talbott will come in improved after the Lima fight, where he showed better defensive wrestling. He thinks Cejudo's takedowns will be less effective as the fight goes on, and Talbott's pace will overwhelm him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cejudo | 0 | 67 of 133 | 50% | 67 of 133 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Song Yadong | 0 | 84 of 178 | 47% | 84 of 178 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 13 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Song Yadong | 0 | 21 of 31 | 67% | 21 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 29 of 55 | 52% | 29 of 55 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Song Yadong | 0 | 33 of 69 | 47% | 33 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 25 of 53 | 47% | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Song Yadong | 0 | 30 of 78 | 38% | 30 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cejudo | 67 of 133 | 50% | 40 of 100 | 12 of 18 | 15 of 15 | 67 of 132 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Song Yadong | 84 of 178 | 47% | 46 of 133 | 14 of 21 | 24 of 24 | 82 of 176 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry Cejudo | 13 of 25 | 52% | 3 of 13 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 13 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Song Yadong | 21 of 31 | 67% | 6 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 10 | 19 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Henry Cejudo | 29 of 55 | 52% | 18 of 42 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 8 | 29 of 54 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Song Yadong | 33 of 69 | 47% | 17 of 49 | 5 of 9 | 11 of 11 | 33 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Henry Cejudo | 25 of 53 | 47% | 19 of 45 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Song Yadong | 30 of 78 | 38% | 23 of 68 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 30 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
His back against the wall, former two-division champ Cejudo (16-4, 10-4 UFC) finds himself on a rare losing streak, albeit to two of the best bantamweights in the world in Aljamain Sterling and Merab Dvalishvili. The Olympic gold medalist takes a slight step down in competition to face Song (21-8-1, 1 NC; 10-3-1 UFC), who also lost his last fight against a champ-level fighter in Petr Yan. The 135ers are brought to the center of the cage by referee Jason Herzog, and they acknowledge one another and double bump their gloves together. It’s on with the show. Cejudo pump-fakes his hips several times to give the impression of a looming takedown, and Song does not bite on a single one and fires off a heavy low kick. Cejudo rushes forward with a one-two that misses the mark, and he races forward and catches Song at the end of an exchange. Song bounces off the cage and gets back to kicking the wrestler in the lead leg and little else. Song sits down on a counter, but Cejudo is in and out with a body kick before that happens. Cejudo fakes a takedown to come up overt the top with a left hook, and after that fails, he motions low for a level change and attack with a flying knee. Cejudo lets fly a low kick and gets jabbed in the belly for his handiwork. Song uses his range to potshot from afar with jabs, low kicks and reaching left hooks. Cejudo fakes his way in but does not engage in anything other than a low kick of his own, and as Song backs off, Cejudo kicks him in the side. Chants of “USA” rain down in support of the wrestler, and Song takes advantage of the energy by clipping the American with a right hand and further flusters him with low kicks. The two drill one another with low kicks, and Song’s ankle bends awkwardly as he tries to put pressure on it. Cejudo keeps kicking the calf, and he shoots low and comes out swinging high. Song rips a kick to the side, and he nearly splits the guard with an uppercut. Both fighters blitz and pull back before letting things go, and Song sits down on a right hand. When Cejudo kicks the body of his foe, Song cracks him with another right hand. Cejudo is fired up and swings back with a vengeance, and he chases Song around until the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Song
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Song
Round 2
The fighters high-five to get started again, and then pull back without trading. Song eventually works his way forward, chipping away with kicks to the body. Cejudo surges forward with two hooks, and his low kick is all that lands from it. Song darts back and works the body, and Cejudo says something to him and strikes. Song swipes out with a left hook, and leg kicks fly from both sides. Song splits the guard with a double jab, and his naked leg kick is nearly countered with a right up top. Song backs off the former champ with a few long punches, and he puts a few right hands down the pipe and goes to the body after. Cejudo waves him on, and he comes up top with a right hand when faking a takedown. Cejudo goes after a takedown, and Song shrugs it off and triples up on his jab. They whip kicks at one another, and Cejudo times a solid left. A jumping switch kick from Cejudo lands to the side, and he drops down in pursuit of a takedown. Song’s sprawl shuts it down, and he fires off kicks to the lead leg. One skims the cup, but Cejudo motions that he does not want to pause. As Song keeps kicking, he falls over, and Cejudo charges at him and then backs off. Song allows Cejudo to come in so he can belt him in the face with a pair of hooks, and he trips Cejudo up with his leg kicks and forces a stance switch. Song jabs and jabs, following a few with right hands and beating the elder statesman to the punch. Song gets a right hand in and escapes, only for Cejudo get his hands on him with a fierce right. Song staggers back and is ready to engage, as if he needs to take damage to get out of first gear. Song suddenly drops down for a single, and Cejudo tosses it aside and scores a right hand. The former champion lands another overhand right, and Song clips him with an uppercut. Song stands his man up with a left, and Cejudo wants to bang it out and does just that. A few right hands from “The Messenger” bloody up Song’s nose, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo
Round 3
Song wants to pay Cejudo back right out of the gate, surging forward throwing punches. Cejudo stands in the pocket ready for battle, and he fakes his takedown every so often to further open things up on the feet. Song never bites, and instead stands Cejudo up with his sharper punches. The punches from Cejudo open a cut on Song’s cheek, and Song blocks a jump knee and pushes Cejudo aside. The two trade one after the other, not concerned about power and willingly engaging. Cejudo blocks a few punches to throw back, but it is Song’s one-two that gets through. When Cejudo lashes out, Song pushes off with a front kick that lands on the cup. Herzog asks replay to check if this is a direct foul, and after 30 seconds, they get back to it. Cejudo ducks a few jabs and swings hard, and again drops down for a level change only to swing up high. This results in a furious brawl, with Cejudo right there in front of the fighter from China swinging hard. Song jumps at his man with a knee, and Cejudo blocks it just in time. Song knocks Cejudo back during an exchange and grins, and he slaps a kick low and backs off when Cejudo hurls a left hook at him. Cejudo sneaks in a clean right hand to get Song’s attention, and Song pays him back with a clubbing right. Song pushes off with his fingers outstretched, and his fingers jam into both of Cejudo’s eyes like a Three Stooges poke. Herzog pauses the action and tells Song to be careful, and Cejudo asks for a cloth to wipe his eyes while telling Herzog to take a point. Cejudo wipes his eyes out with a wet towel, taking ample time to recover while blinking his eyes repeatedly to clear his vision. Cejudo declares to Herzog that he wants to fight and needs to take the time to see better, and he sits down. The crowd showers him with boos, and Cejudo tells the audience to cool it because he was the recipient of a nasty foul. Cejudo uses the complete five-minute break to clear up, and when they resume, Song still holds his fingers out towards his opponent. Song walks Cejudo down and busts him in the chops, clipping him with a solid uppercut when Cejudo is circling away. Song backs Cejudo against the fence, trying to cut him off and aim long strikes at him like front kicks and jabs. Cejudo ducks back to defend from further uppercuts, and he dodges a jump knee to get to the end of the round. Cejudo complains to his corner that he cannot see, and Herzog is paying close attention to this. Cejudo asks the promotion to call in the doctor, and that he cannot see out of his left eye.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Song
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Song
Round 4
Herzog allows the third round to complete, and he goes to start the fourth round and calls time, officially bringing in the doctor and waving the fight off. This means that the fighters will be going to a technical decision, and everyone in the building is disappointed. The first three rounds will be scored in their entirety, and a rematch is almost certainly in the cards for these two. After such a terrific start to the event, it is unfortunate for the night to end like this. Both fighters are game to run it back. When they do, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Yadong Song def. Henry Cejudo via Unanimous Technical Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Angelo picks Song Yadong despite being a huge Henry Cejudo fan. He notes Cejudo is 38 and hasn't won since 2020, while Song is young, fast, and a clean striker. He thinks Song will look better as the fight goes longer. He will not bet on the fight because he will be rooting for Cejudo and never bets on someone he doesn't think will win.
Big Brady picks Song Yadong, noting that Henry Cejudo is 38 years old and may not be taking his career seriously, citing an interview where Cejudo was smoking. He believes Song's takedown defense and get-up game have improved significantly since the Stamann fight, and that Song is 11 years younger with a height advantage. He expects Song to win a clear one-sided decision, with Cejudo maybe getting a takedown here or there but being outworked.
Connor picks Song Yadong but is hesitant, noting that if the fight were three rounds he would pick Cejudo. He acknowledges Cejudo's ability to take Song down early and grind, but doubts Cejudo can maintain pace or finish Song. Connor points out that Cejudo's speed may not shock a young fighter like Song, and that Song is very tough to finish.
The host thinks Song's striking style will be too much for Cejudo, who may make the fight closer than odds indicate. He believes the damage Song inflicts will lead to a decision victory.
The Guru picks Song Yadong by decision, arguing he is more athletic, faster, and has better footwork. He doubts Cejudo's takedown effectiveness, noting he hasn't seen a good takedown from him in years and that opponents often get back up. He believes Song's defensive grappling is strong and that he will outpoint Cejudo on the feet over five rounds, predicting a 48-47 score.
Zane picks Song Yadong because he believes Cejudo is too old and knockout-dependent, and Song is younger, harder hitting, and more durable. He notes that Cejudo's last decision win was a robbery over Demetrious Johnson and that he slows down in later rounds. However, Zane expresses disappointment that Song likely won't show any new skills, as he expects a win that teaches nothing new.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 74 of 172 | 43% | 167 of 273 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 1 | 0 | 4:23 |
| Henry Cejudo | 0 | 29 of 78 | 37% | 54 of 106 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 42 of 59 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Henry Cejudo | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 36 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:53 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 34 of 78 | 43% | 49 of 94 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:46 |
| Henry Cejudo | 0 | 9 of 29 | 31% | 9 of 29 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 24 of 62 | 38% | 76 of 120 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:24 |
| Henry Cejudo | 0 | 9 of 29 | 31% | 9 of 29 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 74 of 172 | 43% | 44 of 128 | 20 of 34 | 10 of 10 | 51 of 134 | 13 of 24 | 10 of 14 |
| Henry Cejudo | 29 of 78 | 37% | 13 of 54 | 5 of 11 | 11 of 13 | 24 of 68 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 16 of 32 | 50% | 9 of 22 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 23 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
| Henry Cejudo | 11 of 20 | 55% | 4 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 34 of 78 | 43% | 22 of 61 | 9 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 64 | 1 of 6 | 6 of 8 |
| Henry Cejudo | 9 of 29 | 31% | 6 of 22 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 24 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 24 of 62 | 38% | 13 of 45 | 7 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 47 | 6 of 10 | 3 of 5 |
| Henry Cejudo | 9 of 29 | 31% | 3 of 19 | 0 of 3 | 6 of 7 | 9 of 26 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili, citing his insane conditioning and relentless chain wrestling. He notes Henry Cejudo gave up four takedowns to Aljamain Sterling and expects Merab to take him down repeatedly. He is rooting for Cejudo but believes Merab's style is the worst matchup for him in the division.
Big Brady picks Merab Dvalishvili to win by decision. He praises Merab's relentless pace and volume, referencing his record 49 takedown attempts against Petr Yan. He believes Cejudo, at 37 and coming off a layoff, will struggle to keep up. He compares it to the Jose Aldo fight where Merab lost all takedowns but still won via pressure and cage control. He expects a similar outcome here.
Cody leans toward Cejudo as an underdog, thinking his Olympic-level wrestling could neutralize Merab's takedown-heavy game. He notes that Cejudo is a natural flyweight and may not be outsized by Merab. He questions whether Merab's wrestling will be effective against a gold medalist. He sees value in Cejudo at plus money.
Daniel Vreeland picks Merab Dvalishvili, emphasizing his youth, cardio, and relentless pace. He notes Merab's 49 takedown attempts against Petr Yan and his ability to outwork opponents. He questions Cejudo's motivation and training situation, suggesting he is not in the same shape as during his championship run. He believes Merab's pressure and volume will fatigue Cejudo and lead to a decision win.
Dvalishvili's high cardio, pace, and output overwhelm opponents, forcing mistakes. Cejudo has technical advantages but his prime is past. Expects Dvalishvili to win by decision.
Paul picks Merab, citing his non-stop pressure and takedown volume. He notes that Merab's wrestling is his staple, and even if he doesn't hold Cejudo down, the constant takedown attempts will wear on Cejudo. He references Merab's win over Petr Yan, where he attempted 49 takedowns, and his ability to out-strike Aldo without any takedowns. He believes Merab's cardio and pace will be too much for Cejudo.
The MMA Guru picks Merab Dvalishvili, citing his size advantage, cardio, and pressure. He notes Cejudo's inactivity and overthinking in the Aljamain Sterling fight. He believes Merab's grappling and pace will annoy Cejudo, even if Cejudo gets back up. He mentions a conspiracy about Cejudo firing his coach, but ultimately trusts Merab's momentum.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 135 of 210 | 64% | 186 of 261 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 4:00 |
| Henry Cejudo | 0 | 99 of 174 | 56% | 143 of 219 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 5:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 20 of 34 | 58% | 29 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Henry Cejudo | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 15 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 | |
| 2 | Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 29 of 55 | 52% | 29 of 55 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Henry Cejudo | 0 | 31 of 53 | 58% | 31 of 53 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 26 of 29 | 89% | 45 of 48 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
| Henry Cejudo | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 38 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:43 | |
| 4 | Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 36 of 52 | 69% | 52 of 68 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Henry Cejudo | 0 | 19 of 33 | 57% | 24 of 38 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 5 | Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 24 of 40 | 60% | 31 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Henry Cejudo | 0 | 27 of 41 | 65% | 35 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aljamain Sterling | 135 of 210 | 64% | 51 of 112 | 50 of 60 | 34 of 38 | 103 of 174 | 24 of 28 | 8 of 8 |
| Henry Cejudo | 99 of 174 | 56% | 35 of 99 | 30 of 37 | 34 of 38 | 82 of 152 | 16 of 21 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aljamain Sterling | 20 of 34 | 58% | 5 of 15 | 10 of 12 | 5 of 7 | 12 of 25 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 5 |
| Henry Cejudo | 7 of 18 | 38% | 3 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Aljamain Sterling | 29 of 55 | 52% | 10 of 33 | 11 of 14 | 8 of 8 | 28 of 53 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Henry Cejudo | 31 of 53 | 58% | 10 of 26 | 7 of 11 | 14 of 16 | 29 of 51 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Aljamain Sterling | 26 of 29 | 89% | 12 of 15 | 11 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 20 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 2 |
| Henry Cejudo | 15 of 29 | 51% | 7 of 19 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | |
| 4 | Aljamain Sterling | 36 of 52 | 69% | 11 of 25 | 13 of 14 | 12 of 13 | 27 of 42 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 |
| Henry Cejudo | 19 of 33 | 57% | 7 of 20 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 7 | 16 of 30 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Aljamain Sterling | 24 of 40 | 60% | 13 of 24 | 5 of 9 | 6 of 7 | 19 of 34 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Henry Cejudo | 27 of 41 | 65% | 8 of 21 | 12 of 13 | 7 of 7 | 20 of 32 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cejudo (-115), Sterling (-105)
Round 1
This one is for all the marbles, and a fair amount of divisional glory as well. Sterling (22-3, 14-3 UFC) will be trying to set the UFC bantamweight record by notching his third successful title defense, while Cejudo (16-2, 10-2 UFC) would like nothing more than to get his old belt back. The winner of this pairing will elevate themselves in the all-time rankings at bantamweight, and they will have 25 minutes to figure it out. Like the legion of fans in the Prudential Center, referee Herb Dean is excited for how this one will play out. The fighters share a stern glove touch, and let the games begin. Sterling comes out aggressively, and he leads the dance with an early head kick. They clash shins at the same time, and Sterling recovers and kicks the leg. Cejudo ignores a few low kicks and backs away when Sterling leaps at him with a flying knee. Cejudo dodges a body kick, and he counters with a right hand. Sterling stalks him down and reaches out with a swatting right up high and left to the body. Cejudo tries to catch leg, and he elects to snatch up a body lock and easily take the champ to the mat. Sterling sits up against the wall, and Cejudo holds on in half guard until Sterling sets up butterfly hooks. Cejudo drops down to grab hold of a guillotine choke with Sterling on his knees, and Sterling breaks the grip but is holding Sterling’s head down. Sterling explodes to his feet, and he eats a leg kick and a right hand on the way. Sterling loads up with a body kick, and Cejudo catches it and whiffs with a huge right hand. Sterling snipes him with his superior range, and Cejudo pushes forward into a clinch. Sterling considers a level change, and Cejudo staves it off and again presses on the back of Sterling’s neck to keep him low. They stand up, and Sterling hunts for a single-leg with Cejudo against the cage. The crowd opens up with chants for “Henry” despite Sterling the fighter from the area, and Sterling manages to take that energy and muscle the ex-champ down to his knees. Sterling cannot keep him down or take his back, and he slams a few knees to the side before Cejudo stands. Sterling hits a mat return, and he snatches up back control and gets one hook in. Cejudo looks to break up the leg wrap, and Sterling knees his man in the thigh a few times and swings with a huge punch right before the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Round 2
Cejudo starts off the second frame with a calf kick, and Sterling greets him with sharp jab and a body kick. Sterling jumps with a switch kick that lands on the shoulder, and Cejudo is still trying to find his distance. Cejudo connects with a calf kick, and Sterling shoots in on him. Sterling shoulder rolls a few punches, and he sticks Cejudo with a straight left. They trade low kicks, and Sterling catches a kick only to get caught with an uppercut to let it go. Cejudo presses the action and shocks Sterling with a head kick, and the champion reels and reaches out with a right hook. Sterling pushes out a front kick, turns to dodge a head kick, and he intercepts Cejudo with a knee to the guts. Sterling surprises his foe with a left hook when faking with a front kick, and he throws kicks to all targets to fluster the ex-flyweight. Sterling shoots in for a takedown, and Cejudo stops it in its tracks with ease. Sterling gets in a left hand, and when Cejudo counters, Sterling is there to catch him with a strike and be out of harm’s way in time. Cejudo puts some mustard into an overhand right, and Sterling jukes and keeps moving. “Funk Master” retains his awkward movement and strange angles, and this allows him to take most of the steam out of the heavy strikes Cejudo throws. Cejudo backs his man up with a straight right to the pectorals, and Sterling spins him around with a calf kick. Cejudo walks into a left hand, and he tries to hop forward with a hook only to get backed off. Sterling quickly spins with an elbow, and Cejudo looks for answers and loads up on a power right. When Sterling ducks away, Cejudo nearly dislodges his dome with a head kick. Sterling slides away and gets a straight left out, and he keeps a high guard to blow what comes back immediately. Sterling digs a punch to the body, and Cejudo replies with a few punches up top. Sterling kicks the side, and Cejudo looks for a takedown only to get shut down. Cejudo wings a monster right hand, and Sterling brushes past it and looks to trip Cejudo down. The wild scramble allows Cejudo to land on top, but the round ends before anything comes from it.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Round 3
Cejudo practically comes out sprinting from his corner, and the two engage in a series of leg kicks. Cejudo breaks this up with one to the ribcage, and Sterling ducks down with a jab. Cejudo times a perfect flying knee that skims off the top of the head, and Sterling drops down to shoot in for a takedown. Cejudo sprawls perfectly and is pushed down to the floor, with no submission or anything from Cejudo. “The Messenger” lets him back up, and Sterling thanks him with a big right hand. Sterling shoots for another takedown, and this time, Cejudo makes him pay for this try with a stern knee. Sterling pursues another from a different angle, and Cejudo defends it and turns his foe around to push him to the fence. Sterling gets off a short knee while they jockey for position, and Sterling trips out a leg and drops Cejudo to the floor. Sterling sneaks his right leg in for a potential hook, and Cejudo hangs onto Sterling’s left arm but cannot keep the gold medalist grounded. Sterling lets him up so that he can smash Cejudo in the face with a clean knee, and he aims one more to the body. Sterling looks for another takedown entry, and Cejudo tosses him out of the way. Sterling lands a left, and Cejudo replies with a right and sprawls to stop a naked takedown. Cejudo nearly circles around to the side, and Sterling answers by switching up for a single. Cejudo keeps his chest pressed on the back of Sterling’s head to stop the takedown from getting anywhere, and he hammers Sterling with a punch before waving Sterling back up. Sterling obliges and they trade body kicks. Sterling fires off a one-two into a level change, and Cejudo stops it but absorbs a pair of flush knees to the torso. Cejudo hits a trip, plopping Sterling on his back with seconds to spare, and he rides out the remainder of the round in the guard.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo
Round 4
The championship rounds are upon them, and Sterling scores a few low kicks to start them off. Sterling swings a left hand, and Cejudo answers with a leg kick. The champ measures a kick to the side, and he loads up with another. Cejudo tries to fire back a low kick, and Sterling strikes the same spot and then has one calf kick checked. Cejudo blocks one and lunges forward, with a right hand connecting before Sterling is able to escape. Sterling sits down on a leg kick, and he follows with a right hand. Cejudo steps in with a knee and two punches, and these two are striking tit-for-tat one after the other. Sterling stings the calf with a shin, prompting Cejudo to charge at him with his fists out to clinch up. Cejudo cannot keep him tied up, and he tosses him away and catches a kick to release a left hand over the top. Sterling sticks out a jab and fails for a takedown, and he nails the calf with another kick. Sterling snaps the head back courtesy of a sharp jab, and Cejudo walks through a kick on his calf to consider a takedown. Sterling breaks free and aims a punch high and a kick low. Cejudo fakes a takedown and walks Sterling down to smack him with a shovel uppercut, and Sterling knees him in the liver. Cejudo grabs the raised leg but cannot elevate him, and Sterling turns the corner and knees his foe in the body. Cejudo whips Sterling around and uses a head lock to drag Sterling to the mat. Sterling pushes through to attack a double, and Cejudo does a whole split but cannot stop Sterling from taking him down. Sterling laces up the leg and lands a few right hands, and Cejudo bursts back up and gets slugged in the chops before the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Round 5
Sterling points at the ground and says “Let’s go” to start off the last round, and the bantamweights meet in the middle of the cage for five more minutes of combat. Cejudo charges, ignoring a leg kick and launching one up high off the shoulder. Sterling slaps another calf kick to the swollen leg of his opponent, and Cejudo blocks one to his liver to follow. Sterling circles on the outside to avoid the looping strikes of his opponent, and Cejudo steps in with a solid body kick. Sterling gives two right back, and he whiffs on a big right hand. Cejudo charges recklessly, face-first into a right hand, but he pays it no mind as he strikes the side with his shin. Cejudo is pressuring aggressively, and Sterling backs him away with a few punches and a high kick. Cejudo scores a right hand as he comes in, and the fans rain down cheers for “Henry” again. Sterling spins with a back kick as Cejudo is kicking low, breaking up this attack. Cejudo stuns the champ with a left hand, and Sterling blinks it out and fights off a single. Cejudo lets it go and cracks Sterling with a right hand and follows it with a leg kick. Sterling reaches out with a right that misses the mark, and he boots the liver as Cejudo takes a look at the clock. Sterling slips a punch and sticks a straight left out, and Cejudo absorbs a calf kick and stuffs a takedown. Cejudo knees the body a few times and looks to follow it with an uppercut, and Sterling rolls with a punch and gets tied up. Sterling backs away from the advancing Cejudo, who grabs hold of a single and lifts Sterling’s leg in the air. Sterling topples down to his seat, but he powers right back up to his feet with Cejudo holding on from behind. Sterling tries to break the grip, and he spins around to get tied up. Cejudo lets go with clinch punches and knees, and the fight has reached its conclusion. It might go either way, possibly depending on the scoring of the second round. In victory, Sterling becomes the first bantamweight champion in UFC history to record three consecutive title defenses. One of the most underappreciated champs in the company is received by a series of boos, but Sterling lets it slide off like water off a duck’s back.
The defending champ calls out Sean O’Malley for his next challenge, and O’Malley enters the cage wearing a jacket reminiscent of “Thriller” by Michael Jackson. O’Malley steps right up to Sterling’s face and constantly repeats the line “you better do better than that.” UFC head Dana White gets between them, and Sterling calls for O’Malley to be removed from his cage. O’Malley approaches Sterling’s teammate, Merab Dvalishvili, who grabs his jacket, puts it on himself and runs away. Sterling is ready to go help out his teammate should a skirmish break out, with O’Malley hurling expletives and middle fingers until his red coat is returned. The security prevents anything bad from arising, and Sterling takes the mic again and tells O’Malley that they will fight in September. After this cools down, Cejudo is given the microphone, and he removes his gloves. Cejudo expresses his disappointment for the close fight, but holds no ill will towards the man that defeated him. Quoting “Talladega Nights,” Cejudo states that “If I’m not first, I’m last” and says this might be the last time he competes. If he fights again, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo (49-46 Sterling)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo (48-47 Sterling)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo (48-47 Sterling)
The Official Result
Aljamain Sterling def. Henry Cejudo via Split Decision (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
Angelo picks Aljamain Sterling despite acknowledging asterisks on his title wins (illegal knee, split decision, TJ Dillashaw with one arm). He believes Sterling's size and activity will be decisive, as Sterling is a weight bully and has been fighting consistently while Cejudo returns after three years. Angelo is rooting for Cejudo but thinks the layoff and cardio questions are too much to overcome. He notes Cejudo's Olympic wrestling credentials but doubts he can take down the much larger Sterling.
Big Brady picks Sterling due to activity, youth, volume, and size advantages. He notes Cejudo's three-year layoff is a major concern, especially at lower weight classes. He acknowledges that if prime Cejudo shows up, he should win, but he's not confident in that. He mentions Sterling's reach and height advantages and that Sterling is in his prime training with Merab Dvalishvili. He says this is his least confident pick on the card and he's likely not betting it.
Cody acknowledges the massive question marks around Henry Cejudo's three-year layoff and whether he can replicate his past success. He gives Sterling advantages in speed, striking, grappling, and recent experience, but notes that Cejudo's constant pressure could exploit Sterling's tendency to fade in later rounds. He suggests playing Sterling live after the first round for a better price rather than betting pre-fight, and only as a small play if nothing else on the card jumps out.
Connor leans toward Cejudo, citing raw speed as a major factor and noting that Cejudo is the fastest fighter Sterling has faced since Marlon Moraes. He believes Cejudo's pressure and willingness to take risks will be effective, and that Cejudo will land the bigger shots. Connor acknowledges the age and ring rust concerns but is willing to take that flyer.
The host believes Henry Cejudo's speed, explosiveness, and defensive grappling will be too much for Aljamain Sterling. He notes that Cejudo is difficult to take down and control, and his calf kicks and power punching could be key. He expects Cejudo to win by knockout in the third or fourth round, assuming he hasn't regressed too much from the layoff.
Paul agrees with Cody's reasoning, noting that while Cejudo could return like Jon Jones or GSP, the three-year layoff is a major unknown. He highlights Sterling's seven-inch reach advantage and massive speed advantage from training with Rob Font. He says it's 'algermane or pass' for him but doesn't feel he has an edge betting-wise, so he likely won't place a bet.
The Guru leans toward Sterling, citing Cejudo's three-year layoff and age (36) as major factors. He believes Sterling's reach and height advantages will allow him to pick at Cejudo from range with front kicks and jabs. He also notes that Cejudo's wrestling may be neutralized by Sterling's body triangle, which can burn rounds. However, he admits it's a 50-50 fight and hopes Cejudo wins for entertainment, showing low confidence.
Zane picks Sterling, noting that he always starts strong with a clear game plan and is underrated for his toughness and resilience. He highlights Sterling's high output, body work, and weapons like knees and uppercuts to counter shorter fighters. Zane acknowledges the risk of Sterling getting caught or fading late, but believes Sterling's grappling danger and ability to take Cejudo's back are key advantages.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cejudo | 1 | 53 of 83 | 63% | 56 of 86 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Dominick Cruz | 0 | 33 of 81 | 40% | 33 of 81 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 19 of 29 | 65% | 21 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Dominick Cruz | 0 | 14 of 29 | 48% | 14 of 29 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Henry Cejudo | 1 | 34 of 54 | 62% | 35 of 55 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Dominick Cruz | 0 | 19 of 52 | 36% | 19 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cejudo | 53 of 83 | 63% | 24 of 50 | 6 of 8 | 23 of 25 | 44 of 70 | 0 of 2 | 9 of 11 |
| Dominick Cruz | 33 of 81 | 40% | 15 of 58 | 8 of 11 | 10 of 12 | 31 of 78 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry Cejudo | 19 of 29 | 65% | 3 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 14 of 16 | 18 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Dominick Cruz | 14 of 29 | 48% | 4 of 16 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 14 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Henry Cejudo | 34 of 54 | 62% | 21 of 40 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 9 | 26 of 42 | 0 of 2 | 8 of 10 |
| Dominick Cruz | 19 of 52 | 36% | 11 of 42 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 49 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Dominick Cruz as an underdog, citing his movement, speed, volume, and takedown defense. He believes Cruz can outpoint Cejudo if he avoids Cejudo's power and the fight stays on the feet. He sees value in Cruz at plus 185 and plans to bet it, predicting a close decision win.
Daniel Levi is extremely confident in Henry Cejudo, calling him an all-time great and dismissing Cruz's chances. He highlights Cejudo's wins over DJ, TJ, and Moraes, and his championship adjustments. Levi believes Cruz is in denial, hasn't evolved, and will be finished within two rounds, noting that Cejudo will pounce if he drops Cruz, unlike Cody Garbrandt.
Matt picks Cruz as an underdog, citing his footwork, height advantage, and ability to frustrate Cejudo. He questions Cejudo's striking entries and recovery from shoulder surgery, and believes Cruz can win a decision. He sees value at plus money but is not betting due to other viable dogs on the card.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cejudo | 0 | 90 of 171 | 52% | 99 of 182 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 2:40 |
| Marlon Moraes | 0 | 57 of 119 | 47% | 59 of 121 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 5 of 22 | 22% | 5 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marlon Moraes | 0 | 16 of 37 | 43% | 16 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 38 of 84 | 45% | 41 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marlon Moraes | 0 | 31 of 59 | 52% | 31 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 47 of 65 | 72% | 53 of 73 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 2:40 |
| Marlon Moraes | 0 | 10 of 23 | 43% | 12 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cejudo | 90 of 171 | 52% | 73 of 150 | 13 of 16 | 4 of 5 | 45 of 118 | 19 of 23 | 26 of 30 |
| Marlon Moraes | 57 of 119 | 47% | 35 of 89 | 7 of 8 | 15 of 22 | 54 of 116 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry Cejudo | 5 of 22 | 22% | 3 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marlon Moraes | 16 of 37 | 43% | 4 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 14 | 16 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Henry Cejudo | 38 of 84 | 45% | 31 of 75 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 27 of 70 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Marlon Moraes | 31 of 59 | 52% | 24 of 50 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 30 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Henry Cejudo | 47 of 65 | 72% | 39 of 56 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 26 | 8 of 9 | 26 of 30 |
| Marlon Moraes | 10 of 23 | 43% | 7 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cejudo | 1 | 18 of 23 | 78% | 18 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| T.J. Dillashaw | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry Cejudo | 1 | 18 of 23 | 78% | 18 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| T.J. Dillashaw | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cejudo | 18 of 23 | 78% | 17 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 17 |
| T.J. Dillashaw | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry Cejudo | 18 of 23 | 78% | 17 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 17 |
| T.J. Dillashaw | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cejudo | 0 | 81 of 134 | 60% | 121 of 174 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Demetrious Johnson | 0 | 51 of 147 | 34% | 80 of 178 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 4:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 21 of 32 | 65% | 21 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Demetrious Johnson | 0 | 4 of 29 | 13% | 4 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 30 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Demetrious Johnson | 0 | 11 of 33 | 33% | 19 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 | |
| 3 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 20 of 28 | 71% | 32 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Demetrious Johnson | 0 | 10 of 30 | 33% | 12 of 32 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 4 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 18 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Demetrious Johnson | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 22 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 | |
| 5 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 16 of 27 | 59% | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Demetrious Johnson | 0 | 17 of 36 | 47% | 23 of 43 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cejudo | 81 of 134 | 60% | 23 of 62 | 19 of 21 | 39 of 51 | 73 of 125 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
| Demetrious Johnson | 51 of 147 | 34% | 29 of 116 | 18 of 25 | 4 of 6 | 31 of 120 | 17 of 22 | 3 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry Cejudo | 21 of 32 | 65% | 5 of 10 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 16 | 20 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Demetrious Johnson | 4 of 29 | 13% | 4 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 24 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Henry Cejudo | 15 of 29 | 51% | 4 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 13 | 14 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Demetrious Johnson | 11 of 33 | 33% | 5 of 24 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Henry Cejudo | 20 of 28 | 71% | 5 of 13 | 6 of 6 | 9 of 9 | 17 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Demetrious Johnson | 10 of 30 | 33% | 6 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Henry Cejudo | 9 of 18 | 50% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Demetrious Johnson | 9 of 19 | 47% | 5 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 5 | |
| 5 | Henry Cejudo | 16 of 27 | 59% | 6 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 8 | 14 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Demetrious Johnson | 17 of 36 | 47% | 9 of 25 | 7 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 28 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili, citing his insane conditioning and relentless chain wrestling. He notes Henry Cejudo gave up four takedowns to Aljamain Sterling and expects Merab to take him down repeatedly. He is rooting for Cejudo but believes Merab's style is the worst matchup for him in the division.
Big Brady picks Merab Dvalishvili to win by decision. He praises Merab's relentless pace and volume, referencing his record 49 takedown attempts against Petr Yan. He believes Cejudo, at 37 and coming off a layoff, will struggle to keep up. He compares it to the Jose Aldo fight where Merab lost all takedowns but still won via pressure and cage control. He expects a similar outcome here.
Cody leans toward Cejudo as an underdog, thinking his Olympic-level wrestling could neutralize Merab's takedown-heavy game. He notes that Cejudo is a natural flyweight and may not be outsized by Merab. He questions whether Merab's wrestling will be effective against a gold medalist. He sees value in Cejudo at plus money.
Daniel Vreeland picks Merab Dvalishvili, emphasizing his youth, cardio, and relentless pace. He notes Merab's 49 takedown attempts against Petr Yan and his ability to outwork opponents. He questions Cejudo's motivation and training situation, suggesting he is not in the same shape as during his championship run. He believes Merab's pressure and volume will fatigue Cejudo and lead to a decision win.
Dvalishvili's high cardio, pace, and output overwhelm opponents, forcing mistakes. Cejudo has technical advantages but his prime is past. Expects Dvalishvili to win by decision.
Paul picks Merab, citing his non-stop pressure and takedown volume. He notes that Merab's wrestling is his staple, and even if he doesn't hold Cejudo down, the constant takedown attempts will wear on Cejudo. He references Merab's win over Petr Yan, where he attempted 49 takedowns, and his ability to out-strike Aldo without any takedowns. He believes Merab's cardio and pace will be too much for Cejudo.
The MMA Guru picks Merab Dvalishvili, citing his size advantage, cardio, and pressure. He notes Cejudo's inactivity and overthinking in the Aljamain Sterling fight. He believes Merab's grappling and pace will annoy Cejudo, even if Cejudo gets back up. He mentions a conspiracy about Cejudo firing his coach, but ultimately trusts Merab's momentum.
The rematch, Mareb has cut weight 4 times this year alone. So not going to be his best. Petr Yan is having a resurgence but against who. Merab has made improvement whilst Petr has gotten more conservative. A ko for Yan will probably be his best chance as the fight goes on. Merab by finish is 6.0 but UFC is not exciting so decision incoming