Career Averages - Robert Whittaker
Career Averages - Paulo Costa
Robert Whittaker
Paulo Costa
Robert Whittaker - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 1 | 66 of 142 | 46% | 70 of 146 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 67 of 145 | 46% | 192 of 282 | 2 of 15 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 9:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 20 of 34 | 58% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 9 of 27 | 33% | 9 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 16 of 38 | 42% | 29 of 58 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 1 | 20 of 28 | 71% | 21 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 13 of 30 | 43% | 32 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 | |
| 4 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 6 of 22 | 27% | 8 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 37 of 48 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:56 | |
| 5 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 11 of 31 | 35% | 11 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 73 of 83 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 66 of 142 | 46% | 62 of 135 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 51 of 123 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 14 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 67 of 145 | 46% | 41 of 105 | 26 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 54 of 128 | 9 of 11 | 4 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 20 of 34 | 58% | 19 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 15 of 35 | 42% | 6 of 19 | 9 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 30 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 9 of 27 | 33% | 8 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 16 of 38 | 42% | 12 of 32 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 20 of 28 | 71% | 20 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 14 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 13 of 30 | 43% | 10 of 24 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 4 | Robert Whittaker | 6 of 22 | 27% | 6 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 14 of 24 | 58% | 10 of 18 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Robert Whittaker | 11 of 31 | 35% | 9 of 26 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 9 of 18 | 50% | 3 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Reinier de Ridder with low confidence, fearing Robert Whittaker may be on the decline after his teeth were shoved in by Khamzat Chimaev. He acknowledges Whittaker is the better striker and overall fighter, but believes de Ridder's size, grappling, and ability to close distance could be too much. He will be rooting for Whittaker.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker, citing a massive striking advantage. He notes de Ridder has poor cardio and was outstruck by Gerald Meerschaert, while Whittaker has elite takedown defense and striking. He worries about the first round if de Ridder gets a takedown but believes if the fight extends, Whittaker will dominate. He predicts a third-round knockout.
Connor sees Whittaker as a master of middle distance, able to control the pocket and land combos without getting drawn into clinch exchanges. He notes de Ridder's poor defensive footwork and tendency to collapse into the cage, which Whittaker will exploit. He also points out that de Ridder's size and willingness to take punishment may make it uncomfortable early, but ultimately Whittaker's speed and accuracy will be too much.
Whittaker will avoid de Ridder's BJJ stylings, stuff takedowns, keep the fight upright, pick de Ridder apart, and eventually find a finish in the third or fourth round.
The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder, citing his size, reach, and unorthodox style as problems for Whittaker, similar to Dricus du Plessis. He notes Whittaker's recent jaw surgery and de Ridder's momentum from the Bo Nickal win. He predicts a submission victory, specifically a rear-naked choke in the third round after wearing Whittaker down.
Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that de Ridder has never faced a striker as fast, accurate, and powerful as Whittaker. He notes that Whittaker's losses come against elite wrestlers or rangy strikers like Adesanya, but de Ridder lacks that athleticism. He expects a clear win for Whittaker, possibly similar to the Aliskerov fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 25 of 31 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 25 of 31 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamzat Chimaev | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 3 of 4 | 75% | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khamzat Chimaev | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 3 of 4 | 75% | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chimaev (-245), Whittaker (+200)
Round 1
An all-international middleweight rumble with immediate championship implications serves as the co-main attraction of UFC 308, one that has as much attention as any non-title tilt lately. Former beltholder Whittaker (26-7, 17-5 UFC) hopes that this next win will propel him back to the top of the mountain, and he will have to deflate undefeated marauder Chimaev (13-0, 7-0 UFC) in a five-round affair. Anticipation is high in the building, among fans and the media, and with referee Jason Herzog as well. Everyone takes a deep breath, and the intense fighters do not touch gloves. Whittaker kicks low, and Chimaev tries to go high and misses. Whittaker attacks the lead leg again, and shoots low for a double. Whittaker uses the wall to keep himself upright, and he is dragged down despite grabbing the fence to keep himself afloat. Chimaev gets a hook in around the side, and he starts opening up with left hands while Whittaker is on his knees. Chimaev considers fishing a choke arm around the head, but he elects to impose his body weight down to keep Whittaker stuck. Whittaker keeps his hand attached to his face to defend from any noteworthy strikes, and Chimaev imposes his will and starts slamming knees to the thigh. Whittaker turns the other direction and gets wrenched down flat for a moment, but he posts off his arms to stop Chimaev from getting hold of him. Chimaev takes the back of the former champ, but Whittaker’s savvy scramble gets him out of immediate danger. Chimaev almost instantly hits a mat return, dragging “Bobby Knuckles” to a knee. A few short punches from the Russian get around the guard, and he slithers one arm around the jaw to try to set something up. Whittaker scrambles again, and he bucks off a choke and twists to the side to stop from giving up his back. Chimaev holds on and looks for an elbow on the side of the head, and he snatches up a rear-naked choke grip on the face in a hurry. “Borz” cranks on the face with all his might, and he appears to harm Whittaker with the submission as Whittaker taps frantically in an instant. Chimaev releases the grip when Herzog intervenes, and he hurls his mouthpiece out of the cage to celebrate. Whittaker motions that his jaw or face was injured from the sub, and Chimaev has now prevailed over one of the top talents in the middleweight division with little resistance. It likely cannot be denied who is next for Chimaev, who expresses gratitude for Whittaker accepting the fight with him. Chimaev calls for UFC chief Dana White to give him a shot at the belt, and after that crushing victory, who could say no?
The Official Result
Khamzat Chimaev def. Robert Whittaker R1 3:34 via Submission (Face Crank)
Angelo picks Khamzat Chimaev as the second leg of his villain parlay with a full unit bet. He acknowledges Chimaev's cardio issues and that Whittaker could survive early and take over late, but believes Chimaev's early pressure and wrestling will be too much. He notes that Whittaker's takedown defense hasn't been tested against someone like Chimaev.
Big Brady picks Chimaev to win by first-round submission. He notes that Chimaev has power on the feet and is dangerous on the ground, and that Whittaker has shown vulnerability on the bottom against Dricus du Plessis. He acknowledges that if the fight reaches the third round, Whittaker becomes a live underdog, but he expects Chimaev to get takedowns and finish early. He calls it a great live bet spot for Whittaker if it goes past the first round and a half.
Cody picks Robert Whittaker as a plus 220 underdog, citing Chimaev's cardio issues and history of pulling out due to illness. He notes that Chimaev has been extended in fights against Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman, and that Whittaker's takedown defense and five-round experience will be crucial. Cody believes that if Whittaker survives the first two rounds, he will take over in the later rounds. He also mentions that Chimaev's wrestling may not be as effective against a true middleweight.
Connor picks Whittaker despite a gut feeling that Chimaev will win. He notes that Chimaev's resume against top competition (Burns, Usman) shows he fades and lacks control, while Whittaker has excellent takedown defense and striking. Connor worries about Whittaker's tendency to get caught in big moments but believes if Whittaker survives the early onslaught, he can win the later rounds.
Daniel Vreeland picks Khamzat Chimaev to win, predicting a submission finish via rear-naked choke or D'Arce choke. He highlights Chimaev's dominant grappling performance against Kamaru Usman, noting that Usman's takedown defense was flawless until that fight. Vreeland also references Dricus du Plessis' judo throw on Whittaker as a sign that Whittaker's takedown defense may be vulnerable. He dismisses concerns about Chimaev slowing down, arguing that even in later rounds he can still dominate.
Lucrative James picks Khamzat Chimaev to win, likely inside the distance. He emphasizes Chimaev's wrestling dominance, noting that he has taken down everyone he's wanted to, including elite wrestler Kamaru Usman. He questions Whittaker's chin, pointing out that Whittaker has been hurt in many recent fights, and believes Chimaev can hurt him on the feet or take him down and finish with ground and pound or submission. He acknowledges Whittaker's takedown defense but thinks Chimaev's physicality and grappling are superior.
Whittaker will deal with Chimaev's early onslaught and then run away with the fight in the later rounds. He can get a decision victory or find big shots to put Chimaev away in the fourth or fifth round. Whittaker reestablishes himself among the top middleweights.
Paul picks Robert Whittaker, echoing Cody's concerns about Chimaev's cardio and durability. He highlights that Chimaev has only fought lower-level competition and struggled against Burns and Usman. Paul believes Whittaker's experience and ability to survive the early onslaught will lead to a victory in the later rounds. He also notes that Chimaev's frequent pullouts due to illness are a red flag.
The Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by TKO in the fourth round, arguing that Chimaev's hype exceeds his reality. He believes Whittaker's takedown defense and scrambling will survive Chimaev's early grappling, and that the five-round fight favors Whittaker's cardio. He notes Chimaev's lack of elite wins, his hand injury against Usman, and his tendency to fade. The Guru also mentions the humidity in Abu Dhabi and Chimaev's recent illness as factors. He predicts Chimaev will engage on the feet early, but Whittaker will take over as Chimaev gasses.
Zane picked Whittaker going in, but acknowledged he had to eat crow after Chimaev's dominant first-round submission. He explained that Whittaker when he loses often melts down and makes a mistake, and that getting blown out isn't shocking for a fighter of Chimaev's quality. Zane noted that Chimaev is an all-time great first-round fighter, but still has questions about his performance in later rounds, as he becomes aimless and uncomfortable striking for long periods.
Zane also picks Whittaker, echoing Connor's concerns about Chimaev's cardio and lack of control against top opponents. He notes that Whittaker's takedown defense is elite and that Chimaev's striking is not as polished. Zane adds that Chimaev's recent health issues and lack of passion are red flags, making him lean toward Whittaker.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 1 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Ikram Aliskerov | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 1 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Ikram Aliskerov | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 14 of 21 | 66% | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Ikram Aliskerov | 5 of 15 | 33% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 14 of 21 | 66% | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Ikram Aliskerov | 5 of 15 | 33% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Aliskerov, citing a changing of the guard. He thinks Whittaker is starting to phase out, showing chin issues and getting hit more. He notes Aliskerov has genuine one-punch KO power and can wrestle, though he hasn't shown it in the UFC. He is not confident enough to bet due to the short notice for Aliskerov, but as a pick he goes with the younger fighter.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker confidently, citing the many disadvantages for Aliskerov: short notice, weight cut issues, travel, and a massive step up in competition from Antonio Trócoli to Whittaker. He expects Whittaker's experience and cardio to take over as the fight goes on, predicting a late finish or decision. Brady acknowledges Aliskerov's early danger but believes Whittaker's chances skyrocket after the first round.
Cody picks Whittaker based on his superior striking, footwork, and experience in deep rounds. He notes Whittaker's takedown defense and ability to use a sprawl-and-brawl game plan, while Aliskerov has not faced top-level competition and may fade in later rounds. However, he acknowledges Aliskerov's power and the risk of Whittaker getting caught early.
Daniel Vreeland picks Robert Whittaker but with caution. He notes Whittaker's elite takedown defense, scrambling, and striking (left hook, high kick) but questions his durability and chin, citing recent wobbles. He acknowledges Aliskerov's power and potential but sees the step up in competition as too big. He leans Whittaker but is not fully confident due to Whittaker's long career and possible decline.
Jacob picks Aliskerov, comparing the situation to Alex Perez vs. Tatsuro Taira. He thinks Whittaker's win over Paulo Costa is overrated and that Costa is not a top-five guy. He notes Whittaker gets wobbled often and blitzes in, which plays into Aliskerov's power. He worries about Aliskerov's short notice and two weight cuts but thinks if he lands, he knocks Whittaker out. He has not bet it but picks Aliskerov.
JP picks Aliskerov by decision, comparing him to Dricus du Plessis who beat Whittaker. He believes Aliskerov's pressure and wrestling will overwhelm Whittaker, who has looked a step slower. Brevan agrees, noting Whittaker's decline and Aliskerov's hunger. Both see great value in Aliskerov as a dog and expect him to dominate. They suggest betting on Aliskerov moneyline and possibly by decision.
Paul picks Whittaker, citing his proven track record and the step-up in competition for Aliskerov. He mentions travel advantages for Whittaker and notes that Aliskerov hasn't proven himself against top-tier opponents. Paul expects a competitive fight but leans on Whittaker's experience.
The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker over Ikram Aliskerov, arguing that Aliskerov's regional wins are not impressive enough to suggest he can finish a former champion. He notes that Aliskerov went to the third round with Dennis Tulin and struggled with other lower-level opponents, while Whittaker has a proven chin and has faced elite competition. He believes Whittaker's experience, takedown defense, and ability to adapt will be key, and that Aliskerov's best path is a knockout, but Whittaker doesn't make the same mistakes as Aliskerov's previous opponents. He admits that if Whittaker loses, it would change his entire view of MMA.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 95 of 175 | 54% | 95 of 175 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 67 of 151 | 44% | 67 of 151 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 38 of 62 | 61% | 38 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 27 of 49 | 55% | 27 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 32 of 55 | 58% | 32 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 26 of 54 | 48% | 26 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 25 of 58 | 43% | 25 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 14 of 48 | 29% | 14 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 95 of 175 | 54% | 63 of 143 | 4 of 4 | 28 of 28 | 95 of 172 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 67 of 151 | 44% | 39 of 117 | 8 of 12 | 20 of 22 | 67 of 151 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 38 of 62 | 61% | 26 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 11 | 38 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 27 of 49 | 55% | 16 of 38 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 7 | 27 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 32 of 55 | 58% | 20 of 43 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 9 | 32 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 26 of 54 | 48% | 16 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 8 | 26 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 25 of 58 | 43% | 17 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 8 | 25 of 56 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 14 of 48 | 29% | 7 of 36 | 2 of 5 | 5 of 7 | 14 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Robert Whittaker, citing his well-roundedness, diverse striking, and takedowns. He notes Costa's power and durability but questions his activity. He is slightly worried about Whittaker's chin after the Dricus loss but believes Whittaker's resume and skills outweigh Costa's. He will leave Whittaker out of the safety parlay.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision. He questions Costa's motivation and activity, noting he's fought only twice in five years and didn't look impressive against Luke Rockhold. He believes Whittaker is the better fighter and more hungry, though he acknowledges Costa's durability and power. He says if Costa doesn't pull out, Whittaker should win a decision.
Cody picks Whittaker, citing his higher volume and tactical approach. He notes that Costa's knockout of Luke Rockhold is less impressive given Rockhold's chin issues. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds total has been steamed, suggesting a decision win for Whittaker. He acknowledges the risk of Costa landing a bomb but trusts Whittaker's jab and fight IQ.
Daniel Vreeland picks Robert Whittaker, arguing that Paulo Costa was never that great and has only one win since the pandemic (over an aged Luke Rockhold). He notes Whittaker's losses are only to champions (Adesanya and du Plessis) and that he has a cleaner striking game and better counter-striking. He expects Whittaker to get reads on Costa and outpoint him, possibly finishing late.
Whittaker uses a cagey style, blitzing in and out with hands and kicks. He has underrated wrestling to implement. If he avoids Costa's power, he should win on the scorecards.
Paul acknowledges Whittaker's superior technique, speed, and experience but worries about his durability due to past knockouts and damage from Romero, Adesanya, and DDP. He notes Costa's power and the threat of a one-punch KO, but points out Costa's wins are over shopworn or lower-level opponents. He ultimately picks Whittaker by decision, trusting his jab and footwork to outpoint Costa.
The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker, citing his speed and movement, and the bigger cage favoring him. He criticizes Paulo Costa's recent performance against Luke Rockhold and his inability to close distance effectively. He notes Whittaker's reach advantage and believes Costa's orthodox stance will be easier to read than Dricus du Plessis's unorthodox style. He predicts a sting-and-move masterclass.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 31 of 70 | 44% | 32 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Robert Whittaker | 1 | 62 of 104 | 59% | 74 of 118 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 23 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 29 of 54 | 53% | 41 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 9 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 1 | 33 of 50 | 66% | 33 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 31 of 70 | 44% | 23 of 59 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 29 of 68 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 62 of 104 | 59% | 38 of 77 | 11 of 13 | 13 of 14 | 41 of 77 | 8 of 10 | 13 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 22 of 44 | 50% | 16 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 21 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 29 of 54 | 53% | 13 of 36 | 9 of 10 | 7 of 8 | 21 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 10 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 9 of 26 | 34% | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 33 of 50 | 66% | 25 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 33 | 8 of 10 | 5 of 7 |
Angelo is very confident in Whittaker, calling it a 'mauling'. He praises Whittaker's diverse striking, takedowns, and well-roundedness, noting his only losses since 2014 are to Adesanya. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy and lacking technique, relying on energy and explosiveness. He thinks Whittaker will out-strike, out-work, and potentially stop du Plessis. He recommends parlaying Whittaker.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Whittaker is better everywhere: striking, wrestling, grappling, and cardio. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy, getting wobbled, taken down, and gassing out in fights. He believes Whittaker will finish du Plessis in the second or third round, either by ground and pound or a head kick. He acknowledges that du Plessis finds ways to win but says this is a huge step up in competition.
Cody picks Whittaker but is worried about the -400 moneyline, so he bets the under 2.5 rounds. He thinks du Plessis will be reckless and leave himself open, leading to a finish by Whittaker. He notes Whittaker has been rocked in many fights but expects him to land a big shot. He believes du Plessis's aggression will be his downfall.
Connor picks Whittaker, emphasizing that du Plessis is 'actually quite bad at fighting' and has been carried by favorable matchups. He notes that Whittaker's jab and movement will be too much for du Plessis's clumsy pressure. Connor warns that Whittaker's tendency to chase combinations could leave him vulnerable, but overall he expects a dominant performance.
Daniel Levi picks Whittaker, describing him as a Hall of Famer with no weaknesses. He notes that du Plessis is awkward and violent but too sloppy for a technician like Whittaker. Levi dismisses the narrative that du Plessis's nose surgery will fix his gas tank issues, predicting that getting punched in the nose again will cause the same problems. He expects Whittaker to outclass du Plessis, possibly with a finish, and mentions that the only value on du Plessis is via KO prop at plus money. Levi also notes that du Plessis's wild style will leave him open to a head kick or right hand from the open stance.
James thinks the line is wide and Dricus du Plessis deserves a bet, but he is not super confident he will win. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop because du Plessis rarely goes to decision and has power and physicality to finish. He notes Whittaker has been dropped many times and du Plessis can finish from any position. However, if du Plessis doesn't finish early, he may gas and Whittaker's superior technique takes over.
Whittaker has superior cardio, striking, and speed. Du Plessis is powerful but has cardio issues and labored movement. Whittaker will use his in-and-out footwork and rear high kick to find a knockout in the second or third round. Fight doesn't go to decision is a strong prop.
Paul picks Whittaker on the moneyline, citing his class everywhere and ability to adjust mid-fight. He notes du Plessis is wild and may overwhelm lesser opponents but not Whittaker. He thinks Whittaker's jab and ring IQ will be key. He is unsure about a knockout prop but leans toward Whittaker by KO or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision (30-27 or 30-26). He argues that Whittaker's patience and experience in five-round fights will prevent him from making the mistakes that du Plessis capitalizes on. He believes Whittaker is superior on the feet and in scrambles, and that du Plessis' wins have come from opponents overextending. He notes Whittaker's humility as a positive factor.
Zane picks Whittaker confidently, stating that du Plessis has no area of his game that should beat Whittaker. He criticizes du Plessis's poor technique, especially his wrestling and striking, and notes that Whittaker's jab and head kicks will be too much. Zane acknowledges du Plessis's clear-headedness but believes Whittaker's superior skill and experience will prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 74 of 166 | 44% | 74 of 166 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 33 of 116 | 28% | 38 of 121 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 22 of 56 | 39% | 22 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 14 of 41 | 34% | 16 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 25 of 53 | 47% | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 10 of 45 | 22% | 11 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 27 of 57 | 47% | 27 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 9 of 30 | 30% | 11 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 74 of 166 | 44% | 49 of 138 | 6 of 9 | 19 of 19 | 72 of 163 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Marvin Vettori | 33 of 116 | 28% | 15 of 94 | 7 of 10 | 11 of 12 | 33 of 116 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 22 of 56 | 39% | 15 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 22 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 14 of 41 | 34% | 6 of 33 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 25 of 53 | 47% | 17 of 43 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 10 of 45 | 22% | 4 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 27 of 57 | 47% | 17 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 8 | 25 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Marvin Vettori | 9 of 30 | 30% | 5 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Robert Whittaker easily, citing his speed, cleaner striking, five-round cardio, and improved grappling. He notes Vettori has a brick head and is hard to finish, so he expects a decision win. He has a moneyline bet on Whittaker at -235 and says the line has moved to -300s.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision. He argues that Whittaker has phenomenal takedown defense and get-up game, so the fight will stay on the feet where Whittaker is the better striker. He notes that Vettori has a granite chin and has never been knocked out, so a finish is unlikely, but Whittaker should outpoint him comfortably.
Cody picks Robert Whittaker, arguing that Whittaker is at his best against aggressive fighters who come forward, as he becomes the counter puncher. He notes that Vettori is a 'junkyard dog' who will brawl, but Whittaker's precision, volume, and ability to make mid-round adjustments will be decisive. Cody also points out that Vettori is not a power puncher, so Whittaker's suspect chin is less of a concern, and that the fight is three rounds, which favors Whittaker's cardio. He recommends Whittaker by decision to improve the -210 price.
Daniel Levi picks Robert Whittaker but expresses hesitation, citing concerns about Whittaker's motivation after two title losses and potential drop-off. He acknowledges Vettori's hunger and mental strength, but believes Whittaker is technically superior. He notes that Whittaker has been hurt in recent fights and that Vettori could potentially finish him, but ultimately leans on the chalk. He does not bet the fight himself.
The host is confident in Whittaker, citing his superior athleticism, striking, wrestling, and overall skill. He expects Whittaker to stay at range, land leg kicks, and possibly secure takedowns. He prefers the decision prop at minus 105, as Vettori is durable and hard to finish.
Paul leans toward Marvin Vettori as a slight underdog, citing Vettori's durability, forward pressure, and wrestling. He is concerned that Whittaker has been hurt many times and may be shopworn from wars with Yoel Romero and Israel Adesanya. Paul believes Vettori's volume and ability to grind out takedowns could be the difference, and that the line is closer than -215/+185. He admits he hasn't bet it yet and will see how weigh-ins go.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Robert Whittaker over Marvin Vettori, stating that Vettori's main problem is talent and skill. He praises Whittaker's boxing ability, footwork, and evolution, noting his dominant win over Kelvin Gastelum. He believes Whittaker will outclass Vettori on the feet with teeps, leg kicks, jabs, and head kicks, and that Vettori won't be able to take him down or outgrapple him. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for Whittaker, with Vettori complaining about the decision afterward.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 1 | 79 of 169 | 46% | 98 of 188 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 59 of 136 | 43% | 74 of 151 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 1 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 16 of 41 | 39% | 24 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 17 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 | |
| 3 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 17 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 12 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 | |
| 4 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 15 of 39 | 38% | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 16 of 35 | 45% | 19 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 5 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 24 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 17 of 26 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 79 of 169 | 46% | 36 of 108 | 14 of 23 | 29 of 38 | 77 of 167 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 59 of 136 | 43% | 38 of 105 | 8 of 11 | 13 of 20 | 54 of 130 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 18 of 34 | 52% | 3 of 14 | 4 of 6 | 11 of 14 | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 9 of 21 | 42% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 16 of 41 | 39% | 9 of 30 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 9 | 16 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 12 of 33 | 36% | 7 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Israel Adesanya | 17 of 33 | 51% | 11 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 16 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 12 of 28 | 42% | 9 of 20 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 5 | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Israel Adesanya | 15 of 39 | 38% | 6 of 26 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 16 of 35 | 45% | 10 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Israel Adesanya | 13 of 22 | 59% | 7 of 14 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 10 of 19 | 52% | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Adesanya to win by decision in a very competitive fight. He notes that Whittaker's path to victory is grappling, but Marvin Vettori tried that and still lost. He thinks Adesanya has surprises on the ground and is more precise with power. He suggests buying a few rounds on the scorecard for Whittaker as a prop.
Big Brady is confident in Adesanya due to his reach advantage, striking skills, and takedown defense. He dismisses the narrative that Whittaker will wrestle, noting Adesanya stuffed four takedowns from Vettori and still won 50-45. He believes Whittaker will struggle to close distance again, and Adesanya will win comfortably, possibly by late knockout. He calls it one of his most confident picks.
Cody believes Whittaker hasn't shown enough improvement since the first fight to change the outcome. He highlights Adesanya's superior striking and takedown defense, noting that even when taken down, Adesanya gets back up quickly. He thinks Whittaker's chin is compromised from the Yoel Romero wars and that Izzy will eventually land the knockout.
Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to win the rematch, citing Adesanya's precision striking and ability to get inside opponents' heads. He notes that Whittaker has looked good in his three-fight win streak but hasn't shown anything to suggest he can overcome Adesanya's accuracy. Levi also mentions that Whittaker drops his left hand and that Adesanya's jab can change the fight. He expects Adesanya to win by decision this time.
Whittaker has improved since the first fight, with better game planning and activity. He should mix in takedowns and volume to win rounds. Adesanya has been taken down more recently, and Whittaker's style is more elusive than Vettori's. The odds are too wide; Whittaker should be closer to +150. He wins a decision.
Paul agrees with Cody that Adesanya will win again. He notes Whittaker's takedowns against Gastelum were opportunistic and won't work against Adesanya's improved takedown defense and get-up game. He thinks standing at range with Izzy is a losing strategy and expects a similar outcome to the first fight.
The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya by decision, citing his leg kicks, range control, and suspected PED use. He believes Whittaker's patience will play into Adesanya's game and that Adesanya's takedown defense and ability to get up will be key.
Paulo Costa - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azamat Murzakanov | 0 | 34 of 70 | 48% | 34 of 70 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Paulo Costa | 1 | 55 of 80 | 68% | 61 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azamat Murzakanov | 0 | 7 of 26 | 26% | 7 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 21 of 31 | 67% | 23 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 | |
| 2 | Azamat Murzakanov | 0 | 23 of 38 | 60% | 23 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 19 of 31 | 61% | 23 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:49 | |
| 3 | Azamat Murzakanov | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 1 | 15 of 18 | 83% | 15 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azamat Murzakanov | 34 of 70 | 48% | 26 of 59 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 65 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 55 of 80 | 68% | 27 of 44 | 16 of 23 | 12 of 13 | 44 of 66 | 6 of 7 | 5 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azamat Murzakanov | 7 of 26 | 26% | 6 of 23 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 21 of 31 | 67% | 8 of 14 | 5 of 9 | 8 of 8 | 14 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 7 | |
| 2 | Azamat Murzakanov | 23 of 38 | 60% | 16 of 30 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 34 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 19 of 31 | 61% | 9 of 17 | 7 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 26 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Azamat Murzakanov | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 15 of 18 | 83% | 10 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Azamat Murzakanov, citing his power, wrestling, and knockdowns in every UFC fight. He acknowledges Paulo Costa's recent good performance but is skeptical of Costa moving up in weight and his history of canceled fights. He expects Azamat to bring pressure and suggests a possible over 1.5 rounds bet.
Big Brady is impressed with Murzakanov's speed, power, takedown defense, and defensive striking. He notes that Murzakanov's cardio has improved and he carries power late. He doubts Paulo Costa's recent performances, citing losses to Vettori, Strickland, and Adesanya. He predicts Murzakanov wins by decision, possibly hurting Costa but not finishing him.
Cody picks Costa as an underdog, believing he can weather Murzakanov's early storm and outwork him in later rounds. He notes Murzakanov's low volume and Costa's durability, expecting a decision win for Costa.
Connor picks Murzakanov, citing Costa's inconsistency and lack of defensive awareness. He notes that Murzakanov is a one-shot knockout artist with excellent timing and defensive awareness, and that Costa's high-volume, low-defense style leaves him vulnerable. Connor also questions Costa's motivation and his move up to light heavyweight, suggesting that Murzakanov's calm, patient approach will allow him to land a clean shot. He compares Murzakanov to Fedor Emelianenko in terms of timing and cage craft.
Daniel believes Murzakanov is being disrespected and sees him as a heavy hitter with good takedown defense. He thinks Costa gets discouraged in fights and that Murzakanov will box him up.
Daniel Vreeland picks Azamat Murzakanov because he believes Murzakanov is criminally underrated and has been disrespected by oddsmakers. He notes that Murzakanov has heavy hands and good wrestling, and that Costa's cardio and discipline are questionable. He also points out that Costa's move up to light heavyweight may not help his psyche or performance.
The host thinks the odds are too aggressive favoring Murzakanov (implied probability 67%) and would cap the fight closer to 50/50. He believes Costa has better cardio and is the more complete striker, while Murzakanov is a better boxer with more power but fades after the first round. He prefers the underdog value on Costa but is not confident in a win.
James picks Murzakanov, citing his power, speed, and accuracy advantage over Costa, who he believes is on a downtrend and not suited for light heavyweight. He expects Murzakanov to hurt Costa early and possibly finish him.
Costa's durability and volume should be too much for Murzakanov, who relies heavily on knockout power. Murzakanov has been close to losing in several fights and his power may not phase Costa. Costa's athleticism and counter-striking can neutralize Murzakanov's blitzes. Costa looked sharp against Kopylov and can outpoint or even knock out Murzakanov. This is a winnable fight for Costa at plus money.
Paul favors Murzakanov due to Costa's questionable commitment and Murzakanov's knockout power. He thinks Costa may be one foot in, one foot out, while Murzakanov's sole purpose is knocking dudes out.
The MMA Guru picks Paulo Costa over Azamat Murzakanov. He is very confident, calling it a 'masterclass'. He believes Costa's speed, body kicks, and technical striking will be too much for Murzakanov, who he thinks is overrated and whose best days are behind him. He predicts a TKO in round two via body kick or similar.
Zane picks Murzakanov, emphasizing Costa's psychological fragility and tendency to fade when pressured. He notes that Murzakanov does a lot of maintenance work—cutting off the cage, feinting, and being defensively aware—which will set up his knockout power. Zane also points out that Costa's only recent good performance was against Roman Kopylov, and that moving up to light heavyweight again raises questions about his commitment. He believes Murzakanov's timing and power will be too much for Costa, who is prone to getting hit and may not want to engage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paulo Costa | 1 | 99 of 159 | 62% | 102 of 162 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 48 of 104 | 46% | 48 of 104 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paulo Costa | 1 | 34 of 54 | 62% | 37 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 11 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Paulo Costa | 0 | 32 of 57 | 56% | 32 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Paulo Costa | 0 | 33 of 48 | 68% | 33 of 48 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 21 of 45 | 46% | 21 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paulo Costa | 99 of 159 | 62% | 34 of 89 | 41 of 46 | 24 of 24 | 87 of 141 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 15 |
| Roman Kopylov | 48 of 104 | 46% | 29 of 79 | 14 of 20 | 5 of 5 | 48 of 104 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paulo Costa | 34 of 54 | 62% | 13 of 33 | 7 of 7 | 14 of 14 | 25 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 15 |
| Roman Kopylov | 11 of 27 | 40% | 5 of 18 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Paulo Costa | 32 of 57 | 56% | 10 of 31 | 18 of 22 | 4 of 4 | 31 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Kopylov | 16 of 32 | 50% | 9 of 22 | 5 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Paulo Costa | 33 of 48 | 68% | 11 of 25 | 16 of 17 | 6 of 6 | 31 of 46 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Kopylov | 21 of 45 | 46% | 15 of 39 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kopylov (-245), Costa (+200)
Round 1
Without a win since 2022, and no knockout victories in over seven years, Costa (14-4, 6-4 UFC) is back in the Octagon after a while away planning on getting a little more green on his ledger. Standing in his way will be fellow knockout artist Kopylov (14-3, 6-3 UFC), with the heavy-hitting middleweights combining for 23 strike stoppages in their 28 pro wins. Referee Herb Dean will don his proverbial hard hat and try to avoid any errant swings. The fighters do not touch gloves.
Costa wants to party immediately, surging into action with punches and kicks to put the Russian on his back foot. Kopylov responds with a left hand that reddens the face of his opponent, and he gets caught with a right hand to sustain a little damage on his mug as well. Costa scores a kick to the inner thigh, bouncing in and out and just brushing the ear with a right hand. “Borrachinha” whips a kick to the ribs after it, and the two men catch one another with single punches. Kopylov recovers first, bouncing in to kick Costa in the stomach. He then kicks the calf, checking one coming back his direction. Costa jabs and opens up with a left hook, with his right hand chambered back ready to go.
Costa works the inside and outside of his foe’s front leg, and Kopylov times one kick to go upstairs with a left hand. Costa drives a right hand to the sternum, and his head kick shakes the hair of the Russian without causing much damage otherwise. He does hammer Kopylov’s front leg with another calf kick, and he goes on the other side to keep Kopylov guessing. Kopylov drills the midsection with a fierce kick, parrying a high kick aimed at his dome and pushing Costa back with a pair of punches. Costa goes to the body multiple times, chaining a right hand behind it that dislodges Kopylov’s mouthpiece and dropping him to his knees. Costa hammers the hurt Russian with short but powerful punches, and Kopylov stands up and circles away while Dean collects his mouthpiece. Dean finds the right moment to give Kopylov his gumshield back, and Kopylov thanks him by landing once more on the Brazilian before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Round 2
As the second round begins, coach and commentator Din Thomas issues pungent criticisms towards Kopylov’s corner for their questionable advice about how Kopylov was succeeding. When the fighters get going in Round 2, Costa is quick to get in his groove, making Kopylov react every time he throws. This frees Costa up to pick his shots, measuring targets to the body and head when finding openings. The power of Costa makes Kopylov think twice about swinging more than once in a row, as he digs two kicks to the body. Costa rifles a right hand down the middle, walking the Russian down to club him a few more times.
Costa dips and rips an uppercut that catches Kopylov off-guard, but it is his straight right hand that damages Kopylov. Costa blasts the body with a kick, not selling out to force a finish as his power strikes are breaking Kopylov down. Costa goes from body shots to big right hands, and Kopylov is stuck not knowing what to do. He briefly presents in a traditional martial arts stance with his elbow high, but Costa pushes that out of the way. Kopylov thanks him for this with a snappy jab, but it is a single shot as Costa evades anything else. Costa picks and pokes with the most painful seeming jabs and front kicks one can imagine, as his teep kick actually lifts Kopylov off the ground once. He chops down the leg a bit more like a lumberjack, and his body work opens up big rights. Kopylov takes body shots on his way in, breaking up what he wants to do other than a reverse crescent kick. Costa marches through the kicks and punches the Russian square in the face. The round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Round 3
Costa marches out to the center of the Octagon to further establish dominance, hammering his Russian adversary’s front with a few kicks. Kopylov splits the guard when leaping in, but Costa is able to back off and wail on him with kicks to any target. Kopylov catches Costa off-balance with another blitz, only for Costa to rebound off the wire and jump forward to clip Kopylov again. The two hand-fight while in opposing stances, with Kopylov kicking the ribs and punching high as Costa appears to be slowing. “Borrachinha” attacks the body and counters a rushing Kopylov with a right hand, and he points at the Russian after tagging him. Costa loads up with a right to the body and then a right to the head. Kopylov steels himself and winds up with a massive right hand that stings Costa, but Costa wags his finger at him.
The mere wag of his finger dissuades Kopylov from diving in to keep attacking, allowing Costa to shake off any cobwebs and launch additional right hands to the busted nose and swollen midsection. Kopylov rifles a left hand up top, standing straight up and eating a low kick. He goes after the Brazilian, lobbing short combos in punches as Costa sticks his tongue out at him. This encourages Kopylov to throw more, only to get caught and backed off by body shots from Costa. The former title challenger shoots for a single, bailing on it and trying a second time so he can knee Kopylov in the liver. Kopylov springs forward behind a crisp right hand, only to slow down right in front of Costa and take right hands on the eye socket. Kopylov swings hard, and Costa rushes towards him to get a clinch. When he lets it go, he strikes the body and staggers Kopylov with a massive overhand right. The Russian is tough as old beef jerky, who bounces back and goes for broke as the fight concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa (30-27 Costa)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Costa)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa (30-27 Costa)
The Official Result
Paulo Costa def. Roman Kopylov via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Roman Kopylov, reasoning that in a striking match, Kopylov is the better striker. He doubts Paulo Costa will use his grappling, as he has been a brawler recently. He notes Costa's durability and output but believes Kopylov's technical striking will win.
Big Brady picks Roman Kopylov, criticizing Paulo Costa's lack of effort and decline since 2019. He notes Kopylov has improved his striking and wrestling, while Costa has regressed. He predicts Kopylov wins by late finish or decision.
Connor picks Kopylov because he believes Costa's current style is vulnerable to a dynamic kicking game. He notes that Costa has not been the same pressure fighter since the Adesanya fight and struggles against opponents who use long-range weapons. Kopylov's ability to pressure and chain combinations on the front foot is seen as a nightmare for Costa's hesitant approach.
The host acknowledges Costa is a wild card, making it difficult to determine whether to bet on Kopylov. He expects Kopylov to win, utilizing grappling and striking to win on the scorecards, but the hesitation is due to Costa's unpredictability.
The MMA Guru picks Roman Kopylov over Paulo Costa, predicting a decision win. He criticizes Costa's inactivity and lack of finishing ability, noting that he rarely punches opponents in the face anymore. Kopylov is described as busier and more active, with a reach advantage. The Guru believes Kopylov will pepper Costa with strikes and possibly land head kicks, while Costa's full-force but ineffective style will not be enough. He also mentions a prop bet that Costa will land less than 63.5 significant strikes.
Zane agrees with Connor, stating that Kopylov's dynamic all-levels kicking game at range and pace is the dagger for Costa's current style. He notes that Costa can still fight in bursts but doesn't trust him to show up the right way. He also mentions that Kopylov's pressure will force Costa to fight, which could lead to a fun but dangerous fight for Costa.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Strickland | 0 | 182 of 402 | 45% | 182 of 402 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 158 of 266 | 59% | 158 of 266 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 24 of 56 | 42% | 24 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 31 of 43 | 72% | 31 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 25 of 70 | 35% | 25 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 32 of 49 | 65% | 32 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 45 of 83 | 54% | 45 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 34 of 54 | 62% | 34 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 39 of 88 | 44% | 39 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 29 of 53 | 54% | 29 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 49 of 105 | 46% | 49 of 105 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 32 of 67 | 47% | 32 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Strickland | 182 of 402 | 45% | 104 of 258 | 67 of 127 | 11 of 17 | 179 of 397 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 158 of 266 | 59% | 28 of 100 | 84 of 111 | 46 of 55 | 157 of 265 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Strickland | 24 of 56 | 42% | 5 of 18 | 16 of 35 | 3 of 3 | 24 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 31 of 43 | 72% | 4 of 10 | 17 of 21 | 10 of 12 | 30 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sean Strickland | 25 of 70 | 35% | 12 of 40 | 11 of 24 | 2 of 6 | 25 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 32 of 49 | 65% | 2 of 17 | 16 of 17 | 14 of 15 | 32 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sean Strickland | 45 of 83 | 54% | 28 of 56 | 15 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 45 of 83 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 34 of 54 | 62% | 7 of 19 | 17 of 23 | 10 of 12 | 34 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Sean Strickland | 39 of 88 | 44% | 22 of 61 | 14 of 22 | 3 of 5 | 38 of 87 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 29 of 53 | 54% | 9 of 26 | 13 of 19 | 7 of 8 | 29 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Sean Strickland | 49 of 105 | 46% | 37 of 83 | 11 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 47 of 103 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 32 of 67 | 47% | 6 of 28 | 21 of 31 | 5 of 8 | 32 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Strickland (-245), Costa (+205)
Round 1
Fresh off a close decision loss to surrender his title, Strickland (28-6, 15-6 UFC) is back in for another five-round contest. With no belt or main event between them, the UFC still decided to schedule this matchup for 25 minutes. He stands across the cage from Brazilian marauder Costa (14-3, 6-3 UFC), who celebrates about 80% of his wins via knockout even as he has not landed one since 2018. Referee Jason Herzog will take control of the cage for this co-main attraction, and possibly due to their back-and-forth on fight week, they do not touch gloves. Costa rushes out of his corner to strike first, where he lands two hearty leg kicks early. Strickland jabs him back, and Costa chops at him with another kick. Strickland raises his leg preemptively to protect against a few others, with damage showing on it less than one minute in. Strickland walks forward despite the kicks, and he prods out a front kick of his own a few times. Costa catches Strickland walking in with a check left hook, and he swats away subsequent front kicks so he can jab the midsection of his foe. Costa pushes off the chest with a much heavier push kick, and Strickland relies on his own front kick again and again. Even if it does not land, he is making Costa think about it. Costa comes up short on an overhand right, but he does connect with a calf kick that is partially checked. They trade jabs, and the Brazilian aims a one-two to the body. Costa clacks a kick off the calf, and Strickland raises his leg up and keeps walking forward tossing out constant front kicks. Costa circles away and fakes a high kick to draw a reaction, and he kicks low to follow. A jab from “The Eraser” reddens the former champ’s nose, and he kicks Strickland in the side and jabs him in the chest. Practically every other step, Strickland is pushing out with the ball of his foot at Costa’s chest and body. Strickland catches a kick and knocks Costa down with a right hand, but Costa hops back upright without batting an eye. Costa spins with a back kick, and Strickland continues pressuring him with these continuous front kicks. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 2
Strickland does not sit between rounds, instead standing up and watching Costa while receiving advance. He wants to keep fighting, even if he has to take a break. As soon as they resume, Strickland goes right back to his kick spam, as if he were a young child playing a fighting game hitting the same button for one specific strike a hundred times. Costa loads up on power shots to back him off momentarily, and he sits down on a loud low kick that makes Strickland pause. A second kick hurts Strickland’s front leg further, and Strickland’s kick-heavy approach wanes momentarily. Costa attacks that lead leg once more, and he lands a left hand but starts to back off from Strickland’s pressure. Strickland starts prodding his front kicks once more, and Costa stands firm and takes a one-two across the forward bow. Strickland closes distance with this front kick when he is not throwing it directly, and it keeps Costa busy thinking about it enough to stifle most of his own offense. Strickland’s nullifying approach makes the crowd restless, and Costa skips away and hacks down with a low kick that is checked hard. Strickland pokes with kicks to the body, and he snaps the head back with a jab while checking a calf kick. A front kick leads to two punches from the ex-champ, and Costa explodes at him pursuing a takedown, but Strickland tosses him aside. Costa delivers two solid low kicks, and Strickland lifts his leg to shake it out and keeps a poker face. Costa spins with a wheel kick that bounces off the guard, and he backs away as Strickland jabs him again and again. Strickland connects with a stiff jab, and he drops Costa to a knee as the pressure appears to be wilting the Brazilian. Costa stands and sticks his tongue out, and Strickland does not falter in his gameplan of front kicks, jabs and the occasional right hand. This plays out to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 3
It takes all of a few seconds for Strickland to turn the game plan back on of front kick after stifling front kick. Even if every other kick actually lands, they add up, and Costa’s midsection is marking up fast. Costa digs a pair of left hands to the body, and he pounds his own kick to the ribs and then goes low. Strickland checks the latter, and he leans back to avoid a left hook. Strickland powers forward, loading up on a combination until Costa bounces off the cage wall and sticks his tongue out. Costa whips a high kick up and it is blocked, and he strikes low and has his kick checked hard. Costa limps away, and Strickland walks him down while touching up him with jabs. Strickland jabs and jabs again, and he pushes Costa away when Costa rushes at him for a level change. Costa thinks about spinning with a strike, but he just twirls around without throwing anything. Strickland chips away at him with jabs and front kicks, and he evades a spinning wheel kick that zips past his nose. Costa lands a pair of low kicks, and the second makes him hobble away. Costa jabs to the body, and he gets his guts kicked a few more times. Strickland comes up short on two hooks, but the straight strikes land regularly. Two jabs, a front kick and two more come from the former champ, who is cruising while Costa is fading. Costa puts all his power into an overhand right, and Strickland dodges as it glances past him. Strickland strings three heavier punches together, and Costa skirts away and tosses a half-hearted right hand that surprises Strickland. The former champion rips an uppercut as Costa ducks, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 4
The middleweights tap gloves as they enter the championship rounds, and Strickland does not need much time before revving up his engines to steadily work Costa over. Costa flails with heavy strikes, and he gets a right hand in, but Strickland lands three of his own, a body kick and a few more jabs. The Brazilian gets off a low kick, and he reaches Strickland with a number of jabs. Costa swipes out with a left hook, and when he has a leg kick checked, he almost falls over from the impact. Costa sells out for a head kick on the other side, and Strickland keeps walking him down and protecting himself from the telegraphed heavy blows. Strickland presses ever forward, jabbing the body and head with punches and front kicks. The approach has been steady and effective, if not overly entertaining. The crowd expresses its restlessness as Costa swings for the fences but hits air, and Strickland does not load up on much while simply outworking his opponent. Costa’s head kicks are blocked, his hooks go wide and his leg kicks are largely checked. Costa gets off a front kick to the body that has much more impact than Strickland’s, and he scores a calf kick that is not checked. He turns and fakes one type of kick so that he can set up a side kick that lands flush on the midsection. Strickland pushes him back with jabs and twos, and Costa slams his left hand on the liver and dings the front leg with another powerful kick. Costa’s kicks are not being checked like before, and Strickland frowns when absorbing them. Costa lands a punch to the body, and he absorbs four punches from up close before backing away. Strickland wings a right hand that bounces into the ear, and Costa stumbles away as the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Round 5
The fifth round has been reached by the middleweights, and they touch gloves presumably one last time. Costa tosses out two punches and a low kick, and Strickland lifts his leg up to defend it. Costa kicks it again, and Strickland meanders forward with a front kick from either leg. Costa plants his shin on the front leg of his opponent again as Strickland is coming at him, and Strickland rolls to avoid a right hand and checks a low kick to follow. Costa winds up on power punches, and one more leg kick gets checked. Strickland catches a body kick and makes Costa pay for it with a pair of straight left hands before releasing the leg, and the two throw hands at the same time. A body kick from “The Eraser” backs Strickland off for a moment, but Strickland gets back into his rhythm of jab to front kick territory. Strickland has his own body struck from kicks and punches, and Costa doubles down on body shots. Costa kicks the body on the other side, and Strickland jabs him and pushes him away with a teep kick. Strickland’s jab is on point, disrupting Costa’s sweeping strikes. Costa goes to the body with a stern left hand, and Strickland no-sells it and works the body with front kick after front kick. Costa just misses on a one-two, and he barrels forward and pushes Strickland back but does not change levels. Strickland misses the mark on a pair of punches, and Costa snaps his head back with a power jab and sits down on a low kick. Costa reaches his man with a left hook, and he is driven away with a handful of jabs. Costa thinks about pursuing a single, but he gives it up and spins with a back fist as he eats a jab. Costa sits down on a few punches, and Strickland pours it on with a barrage of punches. As Costa bounces off the fence, Strickland boots him in the raised guard with a head kick with enough impact to still put Costa on his seat. Costa springs back up, and Strickland runs at him with a jumping front kick as the long engagement comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (49-46 Strickland)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (49-46 Strickland)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (50-45 Strickland)
The Official Result
Sean Strickland def. Paulo Costa via Split Decision (46-49, 50-45, 49-46)
Angelo picks Sean Strickland because of his dependability and the Philly shell defense. He acknowledges Paulo Costa's power and cardio but believes Strickland's volume and durability will win a decision, especially in a five-round fight. He notes that Costa might try wrestling after seeing Dricus du Plessis take Strickland down, but still favors Strickland.
Big Brady likes Sean Strickland at 8,800 because it's a five-round fight, giving Strickland 25 minutes to rack up volume (6 significant strikes per minute). He thinks Strickland's pace will add up and he could even get a late finish. He also likes Paulo Costa in cash games for the same five-round volume, noting Costa's durability and potential takedowns. He sees Costa as a live dog but expects Strickland to win a decision or late finish.
Cody picks Strickland, highlighting his jab and reach advantage. He notes Strickland's durability and volume, and believes Costa's power is overrated (last KO of note was Uriah Hall in 2018). Cody expects Strickland to drown Costa with pressure and volume, possibly getting a late stoppage. He mentions Strickland's experience in five-round fights and Costa's lack thereof.
Daniel notes that Costa can compete at this level but questions if he can win. He highlights Strickland's insane output and Philly shell, and expects Strickland to edge a decision with higher volume. He acknowledges either could get knocked out but leans Strickland.
Daniel Vreeland also picks Costa, agreeing with Fox. He was initially concerned about the 25-minute fight but was reassured by Costa's performance against Whittaker. Vreeland notes Strickland won't grapple and Costa is a decent grappler anyway. He sees risk standing with Costa for 25 minutes but believes Costa's power and durability give him the edge.
Jeff Fox picks Paulo Costa at +200, citing that Strickland's five-round losses (to Jared Cannonier and Dricus du Plessis) came because opponents landed harder shots that judges value more. He believes Costa will land the bigger shots and notes Costa's strong performance against Robert Whittaker. Fox thinks Costa can take three rounds and possibly win a split decision, and he's not worried about Strickland wrestling.
The host believes Costa's power punching is the key to beating Strickland, who has struggled against power punchers. Costa's ability to land big shots over five rounds could lead to a knockout or sway judges with damage. The host notes Costa's recent activity and motivation, and sees value at +205, picking Costa by knockout.
Paul picks Strickland, emphasizing volume advantage. He notes Costa can land big shots but lacks volume; Strickland will put up 200+ significant strikes while Costa struggles to reach 100. He expects Strickland by decision or late stoppage, and mentions Strickland's reach advantage (76-inch reach vs Costa's 72-inch). He also notes Costa's poor body language and cardio in past fights.
The MMA Guru picks Sean Strickland, noting that Costa is inconsistent and has been effectively jabbed before. He believes Strickland can survive Costa's early pressure and take over in later rounds. He predicts Strickland by TKO in rounds 4 or 5. He acknowledges Costa's dangerous right hand and head kick but trusts Strickland's durability.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 95 of 175 | 54% | 95 of 175 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 67 of 151 | 44% | 67 of 151 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 38 of 62 | 61% | 38 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 27 of 49 | 55% | 27 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 32 of 55 | 58% | 32 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 26 of 54 | 48% | 26 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 25 of 58 | 43% | 25 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 14 of 48 | 29% | 14 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 95 of 175 | 54% | 63 of 143 | 4 of 4 | 28 of 28 | 95 of 172 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 67 of 151 | 44% | 39 of 117 | 8 of 12 | 20 of 22 | 67 of 151 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 38 of 62 | 61% | 26 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 11 | 38 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 27 of 49 | 55% | 16 of 38 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 7 | 27 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 32 of 55 | 58% | 20 of 43 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 9 | 32 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 26 of 54 | 48% | 16 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 8 | 26 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 25 of 58 | 43% | 17 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 8 | 25 of 56 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 14 of 48 | 29% | 7 of 36 | 2 of 5 | 5 of 7 | 14 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Robert Whittaker, citing his well-roundedness, diverse striking, and takedowns. He notes Costa's power and durability but questions his activity. He is slightly worried about Whittaker's chin after the Dricus loss but believes Whittaker's resume and skills outweigh Costa's. He will leave Whittaker out of the safety parlay.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision. He questions Costa's motivation and activity, noting he's fought only twice in five years and didn't look impressive against Luke Rockhold. He believes Whittaker is the better fighter and more hungry, though he acknowledges Costa's durability and power. He says if Costa doesn't pull out, Whittaker should win a decision.
Cody picks Whittaker, citing his higher volume and tactical approach. He notes that Costa's knockout of Luke Rockhold is less impressive given Rockhold's chin issues. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds total has been steamed, suggesting a decision win for Whittaker. He acknowledges the risk of Costa landing a bomb but trusts Whittaker's jab and fight IQ.
Daniel Vreeland picks Robert Whittaker, arguing that Paulo Costa was never that great and has only one win since the pandemic (over an aged Luke Rockhold). He notes Whittaker's losses are only to champions (Adesanya and du Plessis) and that he has a cleaner striking game and better counter-striking. He expects Whittaker to get reads on Costa and outpoint him, possibly finishing late.
Whittaker uses a cagey style, blitzing in and out with hands and kicks. He has underrated wrestling to implement. If he avoids Costa's power, he should win on the scorecards.
Paul acknowledges Whittaker's superior technique, speed, and experience but worries about his durability due to past knockouts and damage from Romero, Adesanya, and DDP. He notes Costa's power and the threat of a one-punch KO, but points out Costa's wins are over shopworn or lower-level opponents. He ultimately picks Whittaker by decision, trusting his jab and footwork to outpoint Costa.
The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker, citing his speed and movement, and the bigger cage favoring him. He criticizes Paulo Costa's recent performance against Luke Rockhold and his inability to close distance effectively. He notes Whittaker's reach advantage and believes Costa's orthodox stance will be easier to read than Dricus du Plessis's unorthodox style. He predicts a sting-and-move masterclass.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 73 of 103 | 70% | 106 of 137 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 5:28 |
| Luke Rockhold | 0 | 51 of 70 | 72% | 57 of 78 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 0:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paulo Costa | 0 | 27 of 34 | 79% | 56 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:48 |
| Luke Rockhold | 0 | 19 of 23 | 82% | 19 of 23 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Paulo Costa | 0 | 30 of 42 | 71% | 31 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Luke Rockhold | 0 | 23 of 35 | 65% | 23 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 3 | Paulo Costa | 0 | 16 of 27 | 59% | 19 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
| Luke Rockhold | 0 | 9 of 12 | 75% | 15 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paulo Costa | 73 of 103 | 70% | 37 of 61 | 33 of 39 | 3 of 3 | 53 of 80 | 3 of 4 | 17 of 19 |
| Luke Rockhold | 51 of 70 | 72% | 23 of 40 | 23 of 25 | 5 of 5 | 48 of 67 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paulo Costa | 27 of 34 | 79% | 13 of 19 | 13 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 14 of 16 |
| Luke Rockhold | 19 of 23 | 82% | 6 of 8 | 11 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Paulo Costa | 30 of 42 | 71% | 14 of 22 | 14 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 29 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Luke Rockhold | 23 of 35 | 65% | 11 of 23 | 9 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 23 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Paulo Costa | 16 of 27 | 59% | 10 of 20 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Luke Rockhold | 9 of 12 | 75% | 6 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Paulo Costa over Luke Rockhold. He describes Costa as a massive middleweight with power, output, and surprising cardio, noting his relentless pace even when exhausted. Angelo acknowledges Rockhold's credentials as a former champion and talented wrestler, but believes the three-year layoff and age (38) are too much to overcome against a top-ranked opponent. He mentions that Costa has good takedown defense (80%) and that he already placed a moneyline bet on Costa at better odds earlier.
Big Brady is confident in Paulo Costa. He notes that Luke Rockhold hasn't fought in three years, hasn't won in nearly five years, and was knocked out in his last fight. Rockhold's chin is gone, and he looked slow and washed against Jan Błachowicz. Costa is younger, more active, hits hard, and has solid cardio. Brady expects Costa to knock Rockhold out in the first or second round. He mentions Costa's takedown defense is good, so Rockhold's wrestling won't work.
Cody picks Costa but expresses concerns about Costa's weight cut and his poor grappling off his back. He notes Rockhold's durability issues but acknowledges Rockhold's BJJ could be a threat if Costa gets taken down. Ultimately, he trusts Costa's power and finishing ability.
Daniel Levi picks Paulo Costa to knock out Luke Rockhold in the first round. He notes that Rockhold's chin has been suspect for a long time, citing knockouts by Vitor Belfort, Michael Bisping, Yoel Romero, and Jan Błachowicz. He believes Rockhold hasn't fought since 2019 and is coming back for a paycheck, which is a bad sign. Levi praises Costa's takedown defense (stuffing Yoel Romero's takedowns) and his power, and thinks Costa is catching Rockhold at the right time. He also mentions that Costa looked back to form in his last fight against Marvin Vettori.
Costa should knock out Rockhold, who has a weak chin and has been inactive for three years. However, the -350 price is too high for a finish-reliant fighter. The host prefers Costa by KO at -120 (now -170) but is passing on the moneyline. He warns that if Costa doesn't finish early, Rockhold could make it a tough fight.
Paul picks Costa to knock out Rockhold inside the first two rounds. He notes Rockhold's chin issues and long layoff, and likes the under 10 minutes on Prize Picks. He mentions Costa's wild card nature but thinks he's in great shape for this fight.
The Guru predicts Paulo Costa wins by first-round KO. He describes Costa rushing across the cage, landing a big kick, and then clipping Rockhold with a shot. He sees Costa slipping Rockhold's jab, landing a right hand and body shot, then a switch kick to the body. He envisions Costa blocking Rockhold's kicks and landing an inside leg kick, then a body kick, and finally a left hook that drops Rockhold about two and a half minutes into the first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 163 of 260 | 62% | 172 of 269 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 190 of 346 | 54% | 214 of 373 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 3:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 35 of 53 | 66% | 35 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 39 of 68 | 57% | 42 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 36 of 65 | 55% | 36 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 40 of 80 | 50% | 40 of 80 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 3 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 17 of 29 | 58% | 19 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 31 of 55 | 56% | 47 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:27 | |
| 4 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 32 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 49 of 81 | 60% | 53 of 85 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 | |
| 5 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 45 of 66 | 68% | 50 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 31 of 62 | 50% | 32 of 63 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:59 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Vettori | 163 of 260 | 62% | 82 of 174 | 67 of 72 | 14 of 14 | 154 of 249 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 6 |
| Paulo Costa | 190 of 346 | 54% | 154 of 307 | 33 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 168 of 316 | 21 of 29 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marvin Vettori | 35 of 53 | 66% | 13 of 29 | 18 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 34 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 39 of 68 | 57% | 34 of 62 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 37 of 66 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marvin Vettori | 36 of 65 | 55% | 14 of 42 | 18 of 19 | 4 of 4 | 35 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 40 of 80 | 50% | 29 of 69 | 10 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 36 of 72 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marvin Vettori | 17 of 29 | 58% | 13 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Paulo Costa | 31 of 55 | 56% | 23 of 46 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 27 of 51 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 4 | Marvin Vettori | 30 of 47 | 63% | 16 of 32 | 11 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 28 of 45 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 49 of 81 | 60% | 41 of 73 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 38 of 66 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Marvin Vettori | 45 of 66 | 68% | 26 of 47 | 17 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 43 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Paulo Costa | 31 of 62 | 50% | 27 of 57 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo finds this a very tough pick. He initially had Costa but flipped to Vettori because Vettori has more ways to win (grappling, durability). He notes Vettori's takedown accuracy is under 50% and he struggles to keep people down, while Costa has 80% takedown defense. He's worried Vettori will get sucked into a striking match. He ultimately picks Vettori but is not confident. He loves a prop bet on Costa: 'wins inside the distance, decision no action' at -110, meaning if Costa wins by KO he gets paid, if he loses a decision he gets a refund.
Big Brady picks Vettori to survive Costa's early storm and win late, citing Vettori's durability, five-round experience, and never-been-KO'd record. He notes Costa's takedown defense (80%) and strength make him hard to take down, but believes Vettori's wrestling and cardio will prevail in later rounds. He predicts a fifth-round TKO or submission.
Cody picks Marvin Vettori, expecting to get a better live price after Vettori likely drops the first round. He highlights Vettori's durability, cardio, and experience in five-round fights, contrasting with Costa's questionable cardio and history of gassing. Cody notes Costa's impressive pressure against Yoel Romero but points out his poor performance against Adesanya and his tendency to fade after two rounds. He believes Vettori can take over in rounds 3-5 and recommends betting live after the first round.
Lock picks Vettori based on durability and cardio advantage. He notes Costa's cardio drops after 8 minutes and Vettori's pace will take over late. He expects Vettori to survive early onslaught and finish in rounds 3-5. He also likes Vettori inside the distance and round props.
Paul initially leans towards Costa but is swayed by Cody's reasoning. He acknowledges Vettori's durability and chin, but also notes Costa's power and the possibility of a knockout. Paul suggests that if betting Costa, the knockout prop at +225 is the way to go. He ultimately agrees that waiting for live markets is the best approach, but does not commit to a clear pick.
The MMA Guru picks Marvin Vettori, citing Costa's questionable cardio and mindset after his first KO loss. He believes Vettori's durability, pressure, and activity will allow him to take over in the later rounds. He predicts a rear-naked choke finish in round 4, drawing parallels to Vettori's fight with Omari Akhmedov.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 1 | 55 of 84 | 65% | 55 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 12 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 22 of 37 | 59% | 22 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 1 | 33 of 47 | 70% | 33 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 55 of 84 | 65% | 24 of 51 | 5 of 6 | 26 of 27 | 45 of 71 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 10 |
| Paulo Costa | 12 of 26 | 46% | 2 of 13 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 5 | 12 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 22 of 37 | 59% | 4 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 16 | 22 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 7 of 11 | 63% | 1 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 33 of 47 | 70% | 20 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 11 | 23 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 10 |
| Paulo Costa | 5 of 15 | 33% | 1 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Adesanya after initially leaning Costa. He cites Adesanya's eight-inch reach advantage, superior striking defense, and ability to stick and move in the bigger cage. He thinks Costa is hittable and may fade in later rounds, leading to a fourth-round knockout for Adesanya.
Daniel Levi picks Paulo Costa to become the new champion, citing Costa's pressure, body work, and ability to close distance. He dismisses concerns about Costa's cardio and notes Costa dropped Yoel Romero with a left hook. He believes Izzy's jab will be answered by Costa's combinations, and that Costa can win by decision or knockout. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation at plus 160.
The host picks Israel Adesanya, expecting him to use his movement and counter-striking to frustrate Paulo Costa. He believes Costa will swing at air and slow down after two rounds, allowing Adesanya to take over and finish in the fourth round. He notes that Costa's power is a threat early, but Adesanya's elusiveness and technical striking will prevail.
The MMA Guru picks Paulo Costa, emphasizing Costa's overlooked technical skill, power, and size. He thinks Costa will hurt Adesanya to the body first and then finish upstairs, predicting a second-round TKO. He notes Costa won the trash talk and remains calm, while Adesanya's tentativeness against Romero could be exploited.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paulo Costa | 1 | 125 of 284 | 44% | 125 of 284 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Yoel Romero | 1 | 118 of 213 | 55% | 118 of 213 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paulo Costa | 1 | 32 of 69 | 46% | 32 of 69 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Yoel Romero | 1 | 37 of 69 | 53% | 37 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Paulo Costa | 0 | 40 of 91 | 43% | 40 of 91 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Yoel Romero | 0 | 37 of 71 | 52% | 37 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Paulo Costa | 0 | 53 of 124 | 42% | 53 of 124 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Yoel Romero | 0 | 44 of 73 | 60% | 44 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paulo Costa | 125 of 284 | 44% | 96 of 244 | 11 of 20 | 18 of 20 | 118 of 276 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Yoel Romero | 118 of 213 | 55% | 67 of 148 | 46 of 58 | 5 of 7 | 110 of 202 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paulo Costa | 32 of 69 | 46% | 23 of 54 | 2 of 7 | 7 of 8 | 31 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Yoel Romero | 37 of 69 | 53% | 19 of 46 | 16 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 32 of 61 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 6 | |
| 2 | Paulo Costa | 40 of 91 | 43% | 28 of 77 | 6 of 7 | 6 of 7 | 39 of 90 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Yoel Romero | 37 of 71 | 52% | 24 of 53 | 12 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 36 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Paulo Costa | 53 of 124 | 42% | 45 of 113 | 3 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 48 of 118 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Yoel Romero | 44 of 73 | 60% | 24 of 49 | 18 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 42 of 71 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Robert Whittaker, citing his well-roundedness, diverse striking, and takedowns. He notes Costa's power and durability but questions his activity. He is slightly worried about Whittaker's chin after the Dricus loss but believes Whittaker's resume and skills outweigh Costa's. He will leave Whittaker out of the safety parlay.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision. He questions Costa's motivation and activity, noting he's fought only twice in five years and didn't look impressive against Luke Rockhold. He believes Whittaker is the better fighter and more hungry, though he acknowledges Costa's durability and power. He says if Costa doesn't pull out, Whittaker should win a decision.
Cody picks Whittaker, citing his higher volume and tactical approach. He notes that Costa's knockout of Luke Rockhold is less impressive given Rockhold's chin issues. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds total has been steamed, suggesting a decision win for Whittaker. He acknowledges the risk of Costa landing a bomb but trusts Whittaker's jab and fight IQ.
Daniel Vreeland picks Robert Whittaker, arguing that Paulo Costa was never that great and has only one win since the pandemic (over an aged Luke Rockhold). He notes Whittaker's losses are only to champions (Adesanya and du Plessis) and that he has a cleaner striking game and better counter-striking. He expects Whittaker to get reads on Costa and outpoint him, possibly finishing late.
Whittaker uses a cagey style, blitzing in and out with hands and kicks. He has underrated wrestling to implement. If he avoids Costa's power, he should win on the scorecards.
Paul acknowledges Whittaker's superior technique, speed, and experience but worries about his durability due to past knockouts and damage from Romero, Adesanya, and DDP. He notes Costa's power and the threat of a one-punch KO, but points out Costa's wins are over shopworn or lower-level opponents. He ultimately picks Whittaker by decision, trusting his jab and footwork to outpoint Costa.
The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker, citing his speed and movement, and the bigger cage favoring him. He criticizes Paulo Costa's recent performance against Luke Rockhold and his inability to close distance effectively. He notes Whittaker's reach advantage and believes Costa's orthodox stance will be easier to read than Dricus du Plessis's unorthodox style. He predicts a sting-and-move masterclass.
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