UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024 · Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria Next Fight
Age 40
Height 6' 1"
Reach 75"
Weight 253 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 29
Height 6' 3"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 240 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Marcos Rogério de Lima
3.7 SLpM
57.0% Str. Acc.
2.9 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
1.4 TD Avg
45.0% TD Acc.
59.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Junior Tafa
3.41 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
2.55 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
70.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Marcos Rogério de Lima - Fight History
WIN vs Junior Tafa
TKO (leg kick and punches) R2 1:14 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcos Rogério de Lima 1 33 of 46 71% 63 of 78 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:26
Junior Tafa 0 11 of 27 40% 17 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 27 of 36 75% 55 of 66 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:08
Junior Tafa 0 6 of 18 33% 10 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marcos Rogério de Lima 1 6 of 10 60% 8 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Junior Tafa 0 5 of 9 55% 7 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcos Rogério de Lima 33 of 46 71% 19 of 31 2 of 2 12 of 13 22 of 32 1 of 1 10 of 13
Junior Tafa 11 of 27 40% 9 of 24 1 of 2 1 of 1 10 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcos Rogério de Lima 27 of 36 75% 16 of 24 2 of 2 9 of 10 18 of 25 1 of 1 8 of 10
Junior Tafa 6 of 18 33% 5 of 16 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Marcos Rogério de Lima 6 of 10 60% 3 of 7 0 of 0 3 of 3 4 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 3
Junior Tafa 5 of 9 55% 4 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. Junior Tafa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: NA

Round 1
In something never before seen in the Octagon, brother will replace brother in a match. On weigh-in day, Justin Tafa was expected to be facing Rogerio de Lima (21-9-1, 10-7 UFC). Due to an unexpected injury and some speedy negotiations, the Brazilian will now collide with Junior Tafa (5-1, 1-1 UFC) instead. Life finds a way. Referee Frank Trigg is ready for this heavyweight slobberknocker to get underway, and Tafa stretches his arm out to get a glove touch before getting after it. Rogerio de Lima scores first with a low kick as he backs Tafa to the wall, and when Tafa reaches out with a jab, Rogerio de Lima connects with a second and then a third. Tafa switches stances and lands the single jab, and he hops away from a sweeping leg kick. The kicks are already having an effect on his opponent, and Rogerio de Lima recognizes that. Rogerio de Lima backs off, connects with a few punches and assaults the lead wheel with another kick, and Tafa’s leg nearly gives out beneath him. Tafa hops around, and instead of getting away, Rogerio de Lima pushes after him with a clinch. Tafa welcomes this so he can recover, and when they eventually break, Tafa plods forward to throw haymakers with anything he has left. Rogerio de Lima belts him with another pair of leg kicks, and Tafa backs up to the wall and waves him on. The Brazilian swarms him with punches and body shots, and he shoots in for a double that he completes with relative ease. Rogerio de Lima lands on top in half guard, maintaining heavy top pressure and bopping Tafa with his left hand when he finds an opening. Rogerio de Lima smothers his man until Tafa sits up. Rogerio de Lima considers a choke from an unusual position, and Tafa breaks out, relatively speaking, so he can swing a heavy hand at his opponent. Rogerio de Lima does not like this, so he lowers his chest down to squeeze on Tafa. The grind carries out until the horn bleats.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rogerio de Lima
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rogerio de Lima
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rogerio de Lima

Round 2
Tafa struggles to get back to his feet at the end of the last round, but after a minute to recover, he appears fresh enough to continue. Tafa wades forward, and Rogerio de Lima intercepts him with a calf kick and pushes him down with his fists. Tafa switches to southpaw to protect his wrecked leg, and he lunges forward with an inaccurate punch that allows Rogerio de Lima the close proximity to grab him and shove him to the fencing. Tafa turns around and lands a body shot before pushing away, and he lets his hands go with a mighty right hand.
Rogerio de Lima delivers a harsh calf kick that collapses Tafa’s lead leg, and he looks to Trigg to wave the fight off. Trigg watches on without jumping in, so Rogerio de Lima decides to jump on top and pound away with hammerfists until Trigg calls it.
Tafa fought valiantly, but his replacement effort proved unsuccessful.

The Official Result
Marcos Rogerio de Lima def. Junior Tafa R2 1:14 via TKO (Leg Kick and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Angelo picks Junior Tafa as an underdog, noting his power and durability. He thinks Marcos will struggle to take Tafa down due to Tafa's size and hips. He plans to bet Tafa inside the distance decision no action, as Tafa has finishing upside and Marcos is likely to win a decision if he avoids the knockout.

Junior Tafa wins inside distance (decision no action)
"I think Justin taffa is more than enough durable to not get finished here and all the finishing upside is on his side"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Big Brady picks Marcos Rogério de Lima to win by first-round submission. He notes de Lima has more ways to win with his BJJ black belt and wrestling, and expects him to get the fight to the mat where Tafa is untested. He acknowledges Tafa has power and could land a knockout, but leans de Lima due to his grappling advantage. He says he can't have much confidence in either fighter.

de Lima by submission, round 1
"give me to Lima first round sub I don't think this fight is going is going to last long one way or another but give me the guy that I think has more ways to win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Cody picks Tafa as a dog, expressing strong dislike for de Lima. He notes de Lima's poor cardio and tendency to gas after one round, as seen in the Stefan Struve fight. He believes Tafa's power will eventually catch de Lima, especially if de Lima tires. He sees Tafa as a live underdog at plus money.

"I will take we got a under dog on McKenzie Daren was the first dog pick of the card I'm going to go follow it up with the second dog pick and take tofa."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Daniel Vreeland picks Junior Tafa, despite acknowledging de Lima's experience and grappling advantage. He is concerned about de Lima's recent knockout loss to Derrick Lewis, where he suffered severe dental damage, and questions his recovery. He believes Tafa's power gives him a chance, especially if de Lima is compromised. He notes Tafa's improvements and the fact that de Lima has been finished before.

"I'm actually going to go taffa here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Daniel picks Junior Tafa, calling him a 'bad man' who swangs and bangs. He likes Tafa's power and youth compared to de Lima. He hopes Tafa can keep the fight on the feet and thinks he is worth a dabble as a dog.

"dog time TAA is the pick he's a bad he's a bad man he swangs and bangs... hopefully tofa can keep this on the feet but I think tof is worth a dabble as a dog here."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Jeff picks Junior Tafa as a dog. He is less worried about Tafa keeping the fight standing and more convinced that de Lima won't shoot takedowns quickly enough. He compares de Lima to fighters like Devin Clark who don't wrestle when they should. He warns that Tafa has one of the worst resumes of any UFC heavyweight, so he advises against betting heavily. He thinks Tafa's boxing will hold up.

"I think I'm gonna dabble with Justin tofa too uh I think I'm less worried about whether he can keep it on the feet and more kind of just convinced that Marcos Rogério de Lima won't shoot a takedown fast …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

De Lima has solid power, good leg kicks, and a grapple-heavy style to neutralize Tafa's punching power. He has matured enough to take the fight to the ground and keep Tafa from getting off. Expects a decision win.

"give me Delma and Delma by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Paul picks de Lima, citing his size and takedown ability. He notes that de Lima has a grappling advantage and can take Tafa down. He expects de Lima to use leg kicks and takedowns to win, though he admits he has no intention of betting this fight early.

"the pick for me right now will be Marcos rogerio Del Lima."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

The MMA Guru leans toward Junior Tafa, citing his momentum and improvements, while noting Marcos Rogério de Lima is coming off a KO loss. He calls it a coin flip and admits he doesn't mind de Lima as an underdog. He mentions Tafa's KO power and de Lima's stagnation, but acknowledges Tafa's losses to Jared Vanderaa and Carlos Felipe.

"I'm going to lean towards Tafa... I'll take the momentum of Tafa, the improvements of him over the stagnation of Marcos Rodrigo Del Lima."
LOSS vs Derrick Lewis
TKO (punches) R1 0:33 · UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Jul 29, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derrick Lewis 1 17 of 33 51% 20 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 1 of 1 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derrick Lewis 1 17 of 33 51% 20 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 1 of 1 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derrick Lewis 17 of 33 51% 16 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 16 of 32
Marcos Rogério de Lima 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derrick Lewis 17 of 33 51% 16 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 16 of 32
Marcos Rogério de Lima 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Derrick Lewis vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rogerio de Lima (-215), Lewis (+185)

Round 1
One day ago, this heavyweight slobberknocker that will almost certainly end in either a violent knockout or some serious huffing and puffing – possibly both – is now sitting pretty as the “Featured Fight of the Night” due to the cancelation of the Stephen Thompson-Michel Pereira contest. Hunting for his first win since 2021, Lewis (26-11, 1 NC; 17-9 UFC) still holds the UFC’s all-time knockout record, although Matt Brown tied it with him. He draws fellow knockout artist Rogerio de Lima (21-8-1, 10-6 UFC), and the structural integrity of the cage will be tested when these big men get after it. They lumber towards one another, not offering a glove touch, and referee Dan Miragliotta is ready to step in at a moment’s notice. Lewis shockingly leaps in the air, blasting Rogerio de Lima in the chops with a flying knee. Rogerio de Lima collapses to the ground, and Lewis jumps on top and starts hammering him with vicious ground-and-pound. Rogerio de Lima considers hunting for leglock while trying to survive, but he is in a bad, bad way. Lewis continues slugging him on the face and side of the head, and Rogerio de Lima bails on any possible sub setup and just looks to keep it together. Rogerio de Lima turns to his knees, and the writing may be on the wall here. “The Black Beast” continues swarming Rogerio de Lima with everything he has, and Miragliotta has no choice but to call the fight. Lewis unmounts his defeated opponent, takes his shorts off and starts gleefully running around the cage. He proceeds, in just his underpants, to triumphantly motion the crotch chop several times. Lewis jumps on the cage, happy as can be, celebrating in vintage Derrick Lewis fashion. The UFC’s knockout record now singularly sits in the lap of Lewis, who tells commentator Joe Rogan that his contract is now up and that he hopes to be re-signed by the promotion. If not, as he says, “it is what it is.” The rest of the top-notch post-fight remarks cannot be done justice by a simple play-by-play writeup, and must be heard.

The Official Result
Derrick Lewis def. Marcos Rogerio de Lima R1 0:33 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Angelo is very confident in Marcos Rogério de Lima, stating he is better everywhere except power. He notes that Derrick Lewis is always dangerous with his knockout power, but believes Lima's wrestling, BJJ, and leg kicks will be too much. He placed a 1-unit bet at -129 and notes the line has already moved to -190.

1 unit at -129
"I'm very confident in Marcos to win I have a one unit bed on him at -129 he is already at minus 190."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Big Brady picks Marcos Rogério de Lima to win by first-round TKO via leg kicks. He argues de Lima has more paths to victory: knockout to the head, leg kick TKO, or submission. He questions Derrick Lewis's durability, cardio, and mentality, noting Lewis has been finished early in recent fights. He expects de Lima's leg kicks to shut down Lewis quickly.

first round TKO via leg kicks
"I'm going to take delima first round TKO via late kicks I think a couple of these leg kicks just shut down Derrick Lewis fights over shortly after"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Cody picks Lewis by KO, noting Lewis's power and ability to come from behind. He acknowledges Lewis's losing streak but points out the level of competition (Curtis Blaydes, Serghei Spivac, etc.) is much higher than de Lima's wins. He believes de Lima's cardio and chin are suspect, especially at altitude, and Lewis's heart and power will prevail. He took a small bet on Lewis by KO at +270.

Lewis by KO +270
"I took a small small shot on Derek Lewis by knockout at plus 270"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

James believes de Lima should be a sizable favorite, as Lewis is past his prime and has lost four of his last five. He notes de Lima's leg kicks are a key weapon and that Lewis has poor cardio and doesn't like leg kicks. He expects de Lima to land leg kicks early and possibly finish Lewis, though he acknowledges de Lima also gasses.

"I still think that he's gonna win the fight cleanly there are Lewis at this point in his career is done in my opinion"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

De Lima is on a good run and has power and leg kicks to slow Lewis down. He can also take Lewis down and smash him from top position. Lewis is on a losing streak and seems to have slowed down at 38. De Lima should be aggressive early to avoid Lewis's late power. I'm leaning on de Lima under 2.5 rounds.

under 2.5 rounds
"I'm gonna lean on to Lima in this matchup under two and a half probably my favorite spot but I think it's going to be delima who ends up getting his hand raised by knockout early"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Paul also picks Lewis, emphasizing the talent gap: de Lima's wins are over lower-tier heavyweights while Lewis has fought top contenders. He notes de Lima's history of quitting under adversity (e.g., tapping to a forearm choke against Romanov). He believes Lewis's ability to get back up from takedowns and his power will be decisive, especially at altitude where de Lima's cardio will falter.

"I'm also going to take Derek Lewis on this one"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Song vs. Simon · Apr 29, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 59 of 76 77% 76 of 95 3 of 7 42% 0 0 5:01
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 82 of 150 54% 88 of 156 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 27 of 34 79% 33 of 40 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:35
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 20 of 39 51% 23 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:34
2 Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 15 of 19 78% 26 of 32 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:00
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 19 of 37 51% 22 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 17 of 23 73% 17 of 23 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 43 of 74 58% 43 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcos Rogério de Lima 59 of 76 77% 20 of 31 11 of 15 28 of 30 56 of 72 2 of 2 1 of 2
Waldo Cortes Acosta 82 of 150 54% 54 of 116 18 of 23 10 of 11 79 of 146 3 of 3 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcos Rogério de Lima 27 of 34 79% 7 of 11 5 of 7 15 of 16 26 of 32 0 of 0 1 of 2
Waldo Cortes Acosta 20 of 39 51% 7 of 24 10 of 11 3 of 4 17 of 36 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Marcos Rogério de Lima 15 of 19 78% 6 of 10 2 of 2 7 of 7 13 of 17 2 of 2 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 19 of 37 51% 13 of 30 4 of 5 2 of 2 19 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 1
3 Marcos Rogério de Lima 17 of 23 73% 7 of 10 4 of 6 6 of 7 17 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 43 of 74 58% 34 of 62 4 of 7 5 of 5 43 of 74 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: De Lima (-180), Cortes-Acosta (+155)

Round 1
De Lima enters this heavyweight fight having won three of his last four UFC appearances. He’ll look to halt the momentum of Cortes-Acosta, whose undefeated record includes a pair of UFC triumphs. Herb Dean gets his first assignment of the card as the third man in the Octagon. De Lima stalks his foe and throws a front kick followed by a pair of calf kicks. A Cortes-Acosta body kick is countered by a de Lima right. A hard leg kick lands for de Lima and Acosta nods in acknowledgement. Another leg kick for de Lima and Acosta with a straight to the body. De Lima is heavily targeting the leg, and Acosta’s calf is swelling up early. De Lima punches his way into the clinch and he drags Acosta to the mat. Acosta gives up his back in an attempt to stand. Dean warns Acosta to keeps his fingers ot of de Lima’s glove. Acosta is able to stand and he throws a body kick. De LIma with another low kick and Acosta jabs the body. A solid right lands for Acosta, who shoots for a takedown. He doesn’t get it but he does shove de Lima into the fence. Acosta knees the thighs in close quarters. De Lima reverses position and the heavyweights separate. A counter left connects for de Lima, who then goes back to attacking the legs. Several more leg kicks land for de Lima, but Acosta answers with a spinning back kick. De Lima shoves Acosta into the fence, and they’ll end the round in the clinch.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 de Lima
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 de Lima
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 de Lima

Round 2
Acosta opens with an inside leg kick and a jab. De Lima answers with a leg kick. Acosta is still moving well despite absorbing those leg kicks. De Lima makes Acosta stumble with a trio of leg kicks. Both heavyweights land body kicks. Acosta with a right hand, and Acosta answers with an uppercut. De Lima lands a right to the body. De Lima shoots for a takedown against the fence, lifts Acosta and plants him on his back. De Lima sets up hin his foe’s half guard. The Brazilian passes to mount and Acosta threatens with a kimura. Acosta gives up his back and scrambles to his feet. De Lima keeps his hands locked and then lands a few left hands before taking his man down near the fence. The Brazilian is back to working from half guard. Acosta gives up his back and scrambles to his feet. They swing heavy punches for a few moments. Acosta eats a leg kick and then makes de Lima stumble backward with a right hand. De Lima shoots for a takedown against the fence with about 30 seconds left. De Lima drops low, but Acosta defends and leans forward. They separate just before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 de Lima
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 de Lima
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 de Lima

Round 3
Acosta lands a clubbing right hand. Acosta lands a jab and de Lima responds with a low kick. It’s a measured beginning to the final round for both men. Another jab for Acosta and another leg kick for de Lima. Acosta lands a spinning back kick to the midsection. Another nice jab lands for Acosta. De Lima steps in with a left hook, but Acosta answers with a combination. A hard low kick hurts Acosta. Acosta jabs the body, then the head. A right hand lands for Acosta, and de Lima is just standing in front of his foe and eating punches. Another jab lands for Acosta. A three-punch combination lands for Acosta, and de Lima fires off another low kick. More jabs for Acosta, as de Lima’s output has slowed significantly. De Lima’s face is wearing the damage from Acosta’s jab. De Lima shoots for a takedown against the fence. He locks his hands but Acosta nonetheless defends the attempt. Acosta frees himself and touches de Lima with straight punches. De Lima makes his foe buckle briefly with a low kick. but it’s Acosta landing in volume as the round expires.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 de Lima)
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 de Lima)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 de Lima)

The Official Result
Marcos Rogerio de Lima def. Waldo Cortes-Acosta via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Cody picks Acosta as an underdog, highlighting de Lima's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes that Acosta has better boxing, volume, and a good gas tank, and can survive the initial onslaught to take over later. He suggests waiting for live betting to get an even better price on Acosta.

"the pre-flop pick is going to be the the underdog here but again I think you can get an even better price if you wait for that live market"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Connor is unimpressed with Cortes Acosta's limited game and showboating. He thinks de Lima's wrestling and better technique will be decisive. He notes de Lima's tendency to gas but believes Cortes Acosta lacks the technical game to capitalize. He sees de Lima as the clear favorite.

Odds mentioned: de Lima opened -107, currently -175. Cortes Acosta opened -103, currently +155.
"I'm picking de Lima."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Paul picks Acosta, agreeing with Cody that de Lima is not a good fighter and has terrible cardio. He notes that Acosta has better boxing, head movement, and a good chin, and can outwork de Lima in later rounds. He also mentions that de Lima is a light heavyweight who moved up and has a history of gassing.

"I'm gonna pick Waldo Cortez Acosta but probably a fight I'm more interested from a betting perspective in the live markets"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Zane agrees, citing Cortes Acosta's lack of technical foundation and de Lima's superior wrestling and speed. He notes de Lima's history of losing to more technical fighters after gassing, but Cortes Acosta is not that type. He sees de Lima as the rightful favorite.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"I'm picking de Lima."
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 1:50 · UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · Oct 29, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 2 of 5 40% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrei Arlovski 1 6 of 11 54% 25 of 33 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 2 of 5 40% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrei Arlovski 1 6 of 11 54% 25 of 33 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcos Rogério de Lima 2 of 5 40% 1 of 3 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 6 of 11 54% 3 of 8 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcos Rogério de Lima 2 of 5 40% 1 of 3 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 6 of 11 54% 3 of 8 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Big Brady picks Marcos Rogério de Lima to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Arlovski has been knocked out by power punchers and that de Lima has heavy hands, as seen in his knockout of Ben Rothwell. He mentions that Arlovski's recent wins have come against non-power punchers, and that de Lima's power and early finishing ability will be too much for the 43-year-old Arlovski.

de Lima wins by first-round knockout
"give me uh delima first round KO here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Cody picks Andrei Arlovski as a dog, citing his four-fight winning streak and ability to win close decisions. He notes that Arlovski has been knocked out only by elite power punchers and that Marcos Rogério de Lima is a one-round fighter with poor cardio. Cody expects Arlovski to survive the first round and take over in rounds two and three, winning a decision. He is betting Arlovski.

"I'm gonna be betting on Andre arlovsky this week Cody"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Connor agrees with Zane, picking de Lima based on his speed and power advantage. He notes that Arlovski has been beating low-technique, slow heavyweights, but de Lima is a significant step up in athleticism. Connor also points out that de Lima can wrestle if needed, and Arlovski's lack of finishing ability means he likely can't come back if he loses the first round.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I'm kind of with you. Yeah."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Daniel Levi picks de Lima, citing youth, power, and grappling advantage. He admits his poor track record picking Arlovski fights. He notes Arlovski's veteran savvy and speed but thinks de Lima's power and youth will be too much. He has no interest in laying -225.

"I'm gonna go with de Lima but you know minus 225 on a guy I can't trust I just don't really have much conviction or interest in laying that price."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Jacob picks de Lima but warns against betting heavyweight fights due to inconsistency. He notes Arlovski's recent win streak but says he was getting hit by Jake Collier, and de Lima has more power. He advises not to put money on either side.

do not bet this fight
"my official pick if I have to pick is delima"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Arlovski is on a 6-1 run over his last seven fights and has shown durability and veteran savvy. De Lima is first-round-or-bust and tends to fade in later rounds. Arlovski should survive the initial onslaught and take over in the second and third rounds, winning a decision. The plus 200 price is a no-brainer for an underdog bet.

Arlovski by decision +275
"plus 200 onlovsky is a completely no-brainer uh bet you know he likely he should be able to get uh off on better shots in the second and third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Paul also picks Arlovski, calling him dog number two on the card. He highlights Arlovski's six wins in his last seven fights and his ability to grind out decisions. Paul criticizes de Lima's poor cardio, submission losses, and tendency to fade after the first round. He believes Arlovski's stick-and-move style will tire de Lima and lead to a decision win.

"I will as well I feel like I'm forcing an underdog play but again this is dog number two on the card that I'm zoning in on Andre Lassie these are the types of spots that he absolutely thrives in"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

The MMA Guru picks Marcos Rogério de Lima over Andrei Arlovski, noting that Arlovski's recent fights have been close and he still gets caught on the chin. He highlights de Lima's hands, reach, and grappling threat, which Arlovski hasn't faced recently. He predicts de Lima will mix in takedowns, push Arlovski against the cage, and eventually clip him for a KO win.

"I'm going against the old man himself Andre arlovsky... I feel as though Marcos rodrio de Lima mixing a takedown early... get clipped by Marcos Rodrigo De Lima"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Zane picks de Lima confidently, citing his significant speed and power advantage over Arlovski's recent opponents. He notes that de Lima is a fast, powerful striker who can put Arlovski away early, similar to how Ben Rothwell or Tom Aspinall did. Zane also mentions de Lima's improved conditioning and potential wrestling as an out if needed, while Arlovski is slow and not a finisher anymore.

Surprised odds are getting that wide; de Lima opened -131 now -237, Arlovski +111 to +191. Zane says 'I don't hate it' and thinks the matchup works well for de Lima.
"I'm going to pick Dilema here. I think that the speed and the power is enough that he can just kind of... go out and Ben Rothwell Arlofsky."
LOSS vs Blagoy Ivanov
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Blagoy Ivanov 0 62 of 128 48% 75 of 142 0 of 4 0% 0 0 3:52
Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 68 of 133 51% 81 of 147 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Blagoy Ivanov 0 12 of 29 41% 15 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:32
Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 25 of 45 55% 25 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Blagoy Ivanov 0 30 of 54 55% 33 of 58 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:09
Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 26 of 56 46% 35 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
3 Blagoy Ivanov 0 20 of 45 44% 27 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:11
Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 17 of 32 53% 21 of 37 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Blagoy Ivanov 62 of 128 48% 53 of 118 9 of 10 0 of 0 54 of 118 8 of 10 0 of 0
Marcos Rogério de Lima 68 of 133 51% 46 of 107 18 of 20 4 of 6 58 of 115 10 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Blagoy Ivanov 12 of 29 41% 9 of 26 3 of 3 0 of 0 11 of 27 1 of 2 0 of 0
Marcos Rogério de Lima 25 of 45 55% 10 of 27 12 of 13 3 of 5 23 of 42 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Blagoy Ivanov 30 of 54 55% 24 of 48 6 of 6 0 of 0 27 of 51 3 of 3 0 of 0
Marcos Rogério de Lima 26 of 56 46% 22 of 51 3 of 4 1 of 1 19 of 44 7 of 12 0 of 0
3 Blagoy Ivanov 20 of 45 44% 20 of 44 0 of 1 0 of 0 16 of 40 4 of 5 0 of 0
Marcos Rogério de Lima 17 of 32 53% 14 of 29 3 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 29 1 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Angelo picks Blagoy Ivanov, citing his iron chin and combat sambo background. He believes Ivanov's chin will frustrate de Lima and that if Ivanov gets a takedown, he will have a clear advantage on top. He notes that six of de Lima's seven losses are by submission, providing a clear path.

"I do like ivanov or ivanov to get the win here i think his chin will frustrate de lima"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Big Brady picks Blagoy Ivanov to win by second-round submission. He notes that de Lima is dangerous early with power and leg kicks, but he fades and has poor takedown defense (47%) and submission defense. Ivanov is extremely durable, having eaten shots from heavy hitters and survived a stabbing. Brady thinks de Lima will win the first round but Ivanov will take over in the second, taking de Lima down and submitting him. He compares it to the Struve fight where Struve submitted de Lima after nearly being finished.

second round submission
"I think ivanov takes down to lima de lima's takedown defense is not good it's sitting at like 50 it's actually sitting at 47 percent and then on top of that his gas tank's not good his submission defense is …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Cody picks Blagoy Ivanov, emphasizing his incredible durability (survived stabbing, fought Fedor, Derrick Lewis). He notes that de Lima has poor cardio, weak submission defense, and relies on early power. Cody believes Ivanov can take de Lima's best shots and then take over as de Lima fades. He sees Ivanov's takedown defense and chin as decisive factors.

"i completely agree i think blagoy ivanov uh he just the way he matches up against roger de lima can give him a whole lot of problems"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Daniel Levi picks Blagoy Ivanov by decision, citing his durability and never being finished. He notes de Lima is powerful early but fades and has low volume. He worries about Ivanov's own low output but thinks he can grind out a win. He does not bet the fight.

Daniel does not bet this fight. He mentions Ivanov by decision but no bet.
"The pick is for me is going to be Ivanov by decision but I don't have a bet on either fighter in this matchup."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

The host picks Blagoy Ivanov, citing his durability and ability to survive de Lima's early power. He notes Ivanov's chin held up against heavy hitters like Derrick Lewis. He expects Ivanov to weather the first round, then wear on de Lima and finish him later. He likes the round 3 prop at +1000 and decision prop at +185. He plans to bet 1.4-1.5 units on Ivanov moneyline, acknowledging the layoff risk but believing Ivanov is rightly favored and could be even shorter.

Ivanov round 3 +1000; Ivanov by decision +185; de Lima round 1 KO +800 as hedge
"i'm gonna likely take a shot on it maybe a like a 1.4 or 1.5 unit play on blagoy even off"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Paul picks Blagoy Ivanov, surprised the line is so close. He notes that Ivanov is durable and has never been finished, while de Lima gasses and has poor takedown defense. Paul believes Ivanov's takedown defense and chin will be key, and that de Lima's only path is an early knockout. He expects Ivanov to win by decision or late stoppage.

"i feel like blagoy is the side here and it's not particularly close i'm surprised that the line is this close"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

The MMA Guru picks Blagoy Ivanov, trusting his granite chin and consistency against a higher level of competition. He notes Ivanov went five rounds with JDS and arguably beat Derrick Lewis. He criticizes de Lima's inconsistency and believes Ivanov will grind out a close 29-28 decision by pressuring and winning stand-up exchanges. He dismisses the height difference as not significant.

"i'm going to trust him blagojev enough getting this one done um they say there's a massive height difference i don't think there's going to be too much of a height difference"
WIN vs Ben Rothwell
TKO (punches) R1 0:32 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · Nov 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Ben Rothwell 0 14 of 24 58% 14 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Ben Rothwell 0 14 of 24 58% 14 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcos Rogério de Lima 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ben Rothwell 14 of 24 58% 11 of 20 0 of 1 3 of 3 14 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcos Rogério de Lima 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ben Rothwell 14 of 24 58% 11 of 20 0 of 1 3 of 3 14 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

Angelo leans toward Ben Rothwell, reasoning that he only needs one takedown to finish, while de Lima needs 15 minutes of a clean game plan. He acknowledges de Lima's path to victory through stick-and-move but thinks Rothwell's size and durability are key.

"i'm ever so slightly razor thin ever so slightly leaning with big ben he only needs one single takedown to get this fight done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

Big Brady is confident in Ben Rothwell, citing de Lima's atrocious cardio and tendency to fade after one round. He notes Rothwell has a legendary chin (not knocked out since 2009) and superior takedown defense. Brady expects Rothwell to take over as the fight progresses and predicts a second-round submission, as de Lima has been submitted five times.

Rothwell by submission in round 2
"give me ben roethlit a win and give me ben rothwell to win by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

Cody emphasizes Rothwell's durability (not finished since 2009) and de Lima's tendency to fade. He points out de Lima's poor takedown defense and submission vulnerability. He expects Rothwell to pressure, take de Lima down, and eventually submit him. He also notes Rothwell's 70% takedown defense and that de Lima gasses quickly.

Ben Rothwell wins by submission
"ben rothwell also he shows a 70 takedown rate or something uh he's given up one takedown since 2013"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

Daniel Levi picks Ben Rothwell by submission, predicting that de Lima will be faster and more athletic early but will eventually make a mistake and tap to a choke. He references Rothwell's history of opportunistic finishes, including the comeback against Brandon Vera and the gogoplata against Josh Barnett. Levi notes de Lima's tendency to quit when put in a choke, making Rothwell's submission threat a key factor.

submission, third round gogoplata
"it's gonna be big ben via third round go go choke"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

Jacob picks Ben Rothwell, believing he will plod forward, make it dirty, and grind out a win. He notes that Rothwell has a granite chin and hasn't been TKO'd since 2009. Jacob thinks de Lima has no way to win except maybe a weird decision.

"i think ben just wins one of those fights that he wins he just plots for it boom boom boom boom a little bit of volume makes it dirty against the cage"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

Paul notes that de Lima is a quitter when things go south and has a pattern of alternating wins and losses. He thinks Rothwell is durable, has better submission skills, and will wear de Lima down. He predicts Rothwell wins by submission in round 2, and mentions a prop at 13-1.

Ben Rothwell wins by submission (round 2) at +1300
"ben rothwell's the pick for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2021 (fight day)
Ben Rothwell

The Guru picks Ben Rothwell by unanimous decision (29-28). He expects a close first round with de Lima landing big shots, but Rothwell's pressure and physicality will take over in later rounds. Rothwell will break de Lima down with clinch work and strikes, winning the last two rounds clearly.

unanimous decision 29-28
"i'm going to go with ben rothwell via unanimous decision"
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · May 08, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 5 of 8 62% 60 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurice Greene 0 14 of 26 53% 166 of 228 3 of 4 75% 0 0 14:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 4 of 5 80% 23 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurice Greene 0 6 of 13 46% 58 of 88 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:29
2 Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 0 of 1 0% 16 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurice Greene 0 8 of 13 61% 45 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:50
3 Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 1 of 2 50% 21 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurice Greene 0 0 of 0 --- 63 of 74 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcos Rogério de Lima 5 of 8 62% 3 of 6 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurice Greene 14 of 26 53% 11 of 23 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 10 1 of 1 10 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcos Rogério de Lima 4 of 5 80% 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurice Greene 6 of 13 46% 3 of 10 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 10 1 of 1 2 of 2
2 Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurice Greene 8 of 13 61% 8 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 13
3 Marcos Rogério de Lima 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurice Greene 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Big Brady likes de Lima's power and leg kicks, and thinks Greene's poor striking defense (45%) and chin issues will be exploited. He notes Greene has zero takedowns in the UFC, so he won't exploit de Lima's weak takedown defense. Brady predicts de Lima will win by first-round knockout, as de Lima is dangerous early but fades after the first round. He says the under and de Lima in round 1 are good looks, but he wouldn't lay -190 on the moneyline.

De Lima by first round knockout; under 1.5 rounds
"I'm gonna take delima to win by first round knockout i think the under could be a very good look."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 6, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Maurice Greene

Daniel Levi picks Maurice Greene as a dog, citing de Lima's tendency to get submitted or panic on the ground. He notes Greene's length, volume, and opportunistic submission ability. He acknowledges de Lima's power and early-round threat but thinks Greene can survive and find a finish, possibly via submission. He calls de Lima a 'stunt machine' and expects a volatile fight.

"i'm gonna go with uh maurice green here to submit uh marcos"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

The host picks de Lima to win by TKO, expecting his power to be too much for Greene. He notes de Lima's poor cardio and jiu-jitsu but believes his power will get the job done early. He suggests live betting Greene if he survives the first round.

de Lima by TKO +120, fight won't start round 2 -150
"i think i would go with de lima by tko plus 120."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 3, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Maurice Greene

The MMA Guru picks Maurice Greene over Marcos Rogério de Lima, expressing surprise that Greene is a nearly 2-to-1 underdog. He believes Greene's range management with oblique kicks and jabs will neutralize de Lima's counter-punching style. He predicts a unanimous decision win, possibly 30-27, and notes de Lima's only chance is a KO, which he doesn't see happening.

unanimous decision, 30-27
"i am 100 picking maurice green here ... i think people are really underrating him because he lost to greg hardy but greg hardy is not a bad heavyweight"
Technical Submission (forearm choke) R1 4:48 · UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Teixeira · Nov 07, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexandr Romanov 0 6 of 7 85% 10 of 12 2 of 5 40% 1 0 3:51
Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 18 of 29 62% 27 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexandr Romanov 0 6 of 7 85% 10 of 12 2 of 5 40% 1 0 3:51
Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 18 of 29 62% 27 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexandr Romanov 6 of 7 85% 3 of 3 1 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 4 3 of 3
Marcos Rogério de Lima 18 of 29 62% 7 of 17 5 of 5 6 of 7 12 of 22 5 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexandr Romanov 6 of 7 85% 3 of 3 1 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 4 3 of 3
Marcos Rogério de Lima 18 of 29 62% 7 of 17 5 of 5 6 of 7 12 of 22 5 of 6 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Lock picked Nov 3, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Big Brady is extremely confident in Romanov, calling him an absolute beast. He highlights Romanov's undefeated record, his ability to slam opponents, and de Lima's poor takedown defense (36%). He predicts a first-round submission, noting Romanov has finished 67% of his wins by submission.

first round submission, fight doesn't go to decision (-500)
"probably my most confident pick on the card outside of like a minus five hundred chica chicatsu so give me rowan off here to get it done first round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Daniel Levi picks Alexandr Romanov to win via first-round submission. He notes Romanov's 100% takedown rate in his UFC debut and his ability to hold top control and attack with submissions. He believes Romanov will take de Lima down, apply a schoolyard headlock, and finish the fight, as de Lima has been submitted four times in the UFC and tends to quit when pressured.

first round submission
"i'm going with alexander romano via first round submission"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Nov 2, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The host is extremely confident in Romanov, calling him as close to a lock as possible. He expects a first-round finish via ground and pound or submission, noting Romanov's relentless pressure, takedowns, and finishing ability. He believes de Lima is completely outmatched and that the line should be -500. He plans to wait for the inside the distance prop.

He is waiting for the inside the distance line, expecting it to be around -150 to -200, and plans to hammer it. He also mentions Romanov as a potential lock of the night play.
"He's as close to a lock of the night as you're gonna get in my opinion... i'm really looking for especially him inside the distance"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The MMA Guru picks Alexandr Romanov to win by first-round submission via arm triangle choke. He believes Romanov is too fast and powerful for Marcos Rogério de Lima, and will soften him up with kicks before taking him down and securing the choke. He notes de Lima's history of being submitted.

first round submission, arm triangle choke
"romanov gets it done by first round submission"
Junior Tafa - Fight History
SCHED vs Iwo Baraniewski
13
138 MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

The host picks Baraniewski by armbar, noting that Baraniewski is a very good grappler with judo and powerful takedowns. He expects Baraniewski to exchange a few strikes, then toss Tafa and armbar him as soon as they hit the mat. He mentions that Tafa's takedown defense and submission defense are not there.

armbar
"I'm going armbar for Barnatt."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

AJ picks Baraniewski to finish Tafa, likely by submission in round one, citing Baraniewski's judo background and Tafa's suspect grappling. He notes Baraniewski can also win on the feet but expects the smart strategy to be takedown and submission. AJ is confident Baraniewski will showcase his grappling and get a first-round finish.

under 1.5 rounds minus 300; Baraniewski round 1 finish
"I think Baronki is going to get Tafa down and showcasing a new level of grappling... I think the submission will open itself up in round one."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Angelo picks Iwo Baraniewski but expresses concern about his lack of experience in later rounds, as he has never been past the first round. He notes that Baraniewski has power and can wrestle if needed, while Tafa's takedown defense is terrible. However, he worries that if Baraniewski doesn't finish early, he might gas.

"I'm going to pick Io Baronki, but this dude hasn't sniffed a second round, let alone a full-blown decision."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Big Brady picks Iwo Baraniewski to win by first round submission. He notes that Junior Tafa has the worst grappling in the UFC and that Baraniewski should take him down and submit him easily. However, he worries about Baraniewski's fight IQ and whether he will choose to strike instead of grappling.

by first round submission
"I'll say I will by first round submission here."
BU
Bum MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Iwo Baraniewski has five straight knockouts and is a brutal finisher. Junior Tafa has a weak chin and was knocked out by Billy Elekana. Baraniewski will knock him out in the first round, possibly with a submission but likely a KO.

KO in first round
"EO is going to knock him out in the first round."
FI
Fight Night Picks Expert Confident picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Iwo Baraniewski should win because he has a grappling advantage over Junior Tafa, who is susceptible to low kicks and has questionable cardio. However, Baraniewski can be reckless and hittable, so he must grapple to avoid getting clipped. The host expects a finish, possibly by submission, but notes Baraniewski's inconsistency.

Iwo Baraniewski wins by submission or knockout; smart move would be to grapple
"EO should win this fight. And I say should because EO could fight like a dumbass at times. ... The grappling is definitely the whole of Junior Taffa."
GR
Greedo Plays MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Baraniewski is fundamentally better and has power, but Tafa has a puncher's chance. Baraniewski should win by first-round knockout if he doesn't get reckless. Tafa is bigger but lacks technical striking and grappling.

first round knockout
"Give me Ew though to win the fight by first round knockout."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Lucrative James picks Iwo Baraniewski, expecting him to use his grappling to neutralize Junior Tafa's striking. He notes Baraniewski's takedown instincts and ground game, predicting a KO via ground and pound in round 1. He acknowledges Tafa's power but believes Baraniewski's wrestling will be the difference.

Iwo Baraniewski via KO (ground and pound) in round 1
"I'm taking Ewa Baronki to win his fight. I'm taking him via KO and I'm taking him via KO. Ground and pound in round."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Baraniewski is a powerful wrestler with finishing ability; Tafa has poor takedown defense and gets demoralized on the ground. Baraniewski should take him down easily and finish by submission or TKO. The round one submission prop at +1100 is a great value.

Baraniewski round 1 submission (+1100); under 1.5 rounds (-300)
"I think Baroni runs through Tafa in this spot. I'm kind of surprised Baronki is not up to like -6700 at this point in time."
KO R1 2:42 · UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · May 02, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Junior Tafa 0 21 of 31 67% 22 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Kevin Christian 0 13 of 21 61% 13 of 21 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Junior Tafa 0 21 of 31 67% 22 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Kevin Christian 0 13 of 21 61% 13 of 21 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Junior Tafa 21 of 31 67% 20 of 30 0 of 0 1 of 1 10 of 19 1 of 2 10 of 10
Kevin Christian 13 of 21 61% 2 of 7 2 of 3 9 of 11 13 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Junior Tafa 21 of 31 67% 20 of 30 0 of 0 1 of 1 10 of 19 1 of 2 10 of 10
Kevin Christian 13 of 21 61% 2 of 7 2 of 3 9 of 11 13 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Christian vs. Junior Tafa

Round 1
Towering light heavies Christian (9-3; 0-1 UFC) and Tafa (6-5; 2-5 UFC) go to work at the direction of referee Matt Wynne. Tafa is tall and long, but Christian is ridiculously huge, and they exchange hard shots immediately. Christian hacks away at Tafa’s front leg with nasty kicks from both sides, and Tafa is reacting right away. Tafa does not like the kicks one bit, but he’s countering with huge punches up top, several of which land. Christian is hurt and backing away, but manages to recover. The Brazilian goes right back to work on Tafa’s lead leg, which is visibly chewed up. Tafa is favoring the bad leg, but he plants on it anyway and floors Christian with a pair of flush hooks. Christian stumbles away.
Tafa gives chase, puts him down with a final right hand, then drops at least 10 jackhammer right elbows from top position before Wynne moves in to save the unconscious Brazilian.
Definitive finish to a blissfully defense-free scrap by “The Juggernaut.”

The Official Result
Junior Tafa def. Kevin Christian R1 2:42 via KO (Punches and Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Christian

Angelo leans Kevin Christian despite Junior Tafa being the better striker, because Tafa's takedown defense and ground game are terrible. He believes if Christian can get the fight to the ground, he will win. He expects a finish either way and mentions the under on rounds.

Under 1.5 rounds mentioned as likely.
"Kevin Christian is going to be the pick and we will all be gritting our teeth until this fight is actually on the ground. This is probably a one and a half round line."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Big Brady picks Junior Tafa to win by first-round knockout. He calls Kevin Christian the worst fighter in UFC history, citing his lack of volume, chin, and wrestling. Brady notes Tafa has two UFC wins by knockout and believes Christian's only path is a triangle choke, which is unlikely. He trusts Tafa's power to finish early.

Tafa by KO, round 1
"Give me Junior Tafa here to win this fight by first-round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Cody picks Tafa but is hesitant, noting his poor cardio and submission vulnerability. He believes Tafa will likely win by knockout in the first round, but advises live betting Christian if it goes longer.

"I think Junior Tappa wins. Am I too much of a coward to click him at minus 210? Yeah, probably."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Kevin Christian

Connor picks Christian as a fun upset pick, noting that Tafa is a chaos fighter who either wins in the first round or loses. He points out that Tafa has no grappling and could get taken down or submitted by Christian's length. However, he admits Christian is bad and uncoordinated, making this a low-confidence pick.

"In fact, just for fun. I'm going to pick Kevin Christian. All right. You know, either Junior Tofa chaos him in the first round or loses."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Daniel Vreeland reluctantly picks Junior Tafa to win by knockout, but is wary of Tafa's poor ground game and history of losing as a favorite. He notes Kevin Christian's poor distance management but sees Tafa's power as the deciding factor.

Kevin Christian by submission
"I do think that Junior Taffa can find the chin here. So I'm going to pick him to win by knockout reluctantly."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Tafa is the favorite but his advantages are baked into the odds. He has bad cardio and ground game, while Christian is slow and hittable but could exploit Tafa's weaknesses if he grapples. The fight is likely to end inside the distance but odds are terrible. No bet recommended.

"This one easy pass for me."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Lucrative James picks Junior Tafa to win via knockout. He considers Kevin Christian one of the worst fighters on the roster and believes Tafa is a much better striker. He expects Tafa's takedown defense to keep the fight standing where he has a clear advantage.

"I got Junior Tougher on this one and I have Junior Tougher via knockout."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

James is very confident in Junior Tafa because he believes Kevin Christian is a low-level UFC fighter with poor striking defense and cardio. He expects Tafa's superior boxing and kickboxing to lead to an early knockout, likely in the first round.

Junior Tafa wins inside the distance (-155), Junior Tafa wins in round one (+170)
"I see Junior Tafa winning this fight with a knockout, and honestly, probably in the first couple of rounds."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Despite normally fading Tafa, the host picks him here because Christian's grappling is not UFC level. He expects Tafa's initial grappling defense to keep the fight standing, and then Tafa will land a big knockout. The host notes Tafa's power and that Christian is hittable and lacks durability.

Knockout win
"I think Junior Topa's initial line of grappling defense will work out enough for him here to keep this fight standing. And I think he's going to be able to take advantage of the Tomman defense of Christian. And that …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Christian

Paul picks Christian as an underdog, citing Tafa's history of gassing and getting submitted. He believes Christian's submission skills and durability could lead to an upset, especially if he survives the first round.

submission prop
"I'm gonna take Kevin Christian. But do I like that Paul? Oh my god. No. Just uh you got to make it happen somewhere."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Junior Tafa

The MMA Guru picks Junior Tafa, despite his 6-5 record, believing he will catch Kevin Christian coming in. He notes Tafa looked improved in his last fight and dropped Billy Elekana. He also comments on Christian's background, suggesting it affects his pick.

KO
"I'm going to go with Junior Tafa catching Kevin Christian on the chin."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Junior Tafa

Zane picks Tafa because he believes Kevin Christian is a bad athlete—flat-footed, slow, uncoordinated, and ungainly despite his height. He thinks Tafa, despite his own flaws, has enough power and aggression to finish Christian early. He notes that Christian is in Stefan Struve territory but without the toughness, and that Tafa should be able to beat him.

"Yeah, that's it. On the other hand, they've also found a guy Junior Tofa might lose too. Oh, that's every guy. In fact, just for fun. I'm going to pick Kevin Christian."
LOSS vs Billy Elekana
Submission R2 3:18 · UFC 325 · Feb 01, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Billy Elekana 1 38 of 70 54% 38 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Junior Tafa 0 24 of 51 47% 27 of 54 1 of 5 20% 1 0 1:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Billy Elekana 1 26 of 46 56% 26 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Junior Tafa 0 9 of 24 37% 10 of 25 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:37
2 Billy Elekana 0 12 of 24 50% 12 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Junior Tafa 0 15 of 27 55% 17 of 29 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Billy Elekana 38 of 70 54% 21 of 49 14 of 18 3 of 3 37 of 66 0 of 3 1 of 1
Junior Tafa 24 of 51 47% 20 of 45 3 of 5 1 of 1 22 of 49 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Billy Elekana 26 of 46 56% 13 of 32 10 of 11 3 of 3 25 of 42 0 of 3 1 of 1
Junior Tafa 9 of 24 37% 6 of 20 2 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Billy Elekana 12 of 24 50% 8 of 17 4 of 7 0 of 0 12 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Junior Tafa 15 of 27 55% 14 of 25 1 of 2 0 of 0 14 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Billy Elekana vs. Junior Tafa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Elekana (-250), Tafa (+205)

Round 1
The prelims wrap up with a struggling former heavyweight at 205 pounds in hopes of a new lease on life. Tafa (6-4, 2-4 UFC) dropped his first effort at light heavyweight, but he will get another chance as he takes on California native Elekana (9-2, 2-1 UFC). Referee Herb Dean dons his proverbial hard hat in anticipation of a whole lot of big swings in a small span of time, breathing a slight sigh of relief when the bruisers clap their hands together first.
Elekana slowly, cautiously wades in to go after the ex-heavyweight, not overcommitting to strikes but slowly backing the Kiwi to the fence. Elekana blocks a high kick and walks face-first into a bomb of a right hand that sets him down like a sack of bricks. Somehow, Elekana snaps back online after what appears to be a flash knockdown, and he grabs hold of Tafa and forces a bit of grappling before working his way up. Tafa rushes him, and he pulls back before going for broke. Elekana thanks him with a glove touch, and Tafa further gets his attention with a subsequent left hand. Tafa shuts down a takedown effort that might have gotten him down a year or two ago, and he intercepts a swinging Elekana with a sharp left hand down the middle. Elekana clips Tafa in the midst of an exchange, and Tafa backs off clutching his eye.
Elekana does not throw, instead shooting in for a single, and Tafa winces and pushes off. They flash out jabs at the same time, and Tafa goes with one to the sternum as Elekana frowns and shakes his head. Tafa gets in a pair of punches, and they high-five again. Tafa jabs, ducks and backs Elekana off with a body shot. Tafa winds up with a fierce right hand that shakes Elekana up, and Elekana manages to tank it and circle away as if nothing happened. Tafa takes advantage of a momentary lapse in defense with a right hand upstairs and a left to the body, and then looses a big right high. Tafa digs a kick to the ribs and punches the same target, and he attempts his own jabs to multiple targets. Elekana pitches out a front kick and gets knocked back courtesy of a right hand, and when he gathers himself, Tafa rips a huge left to the liver. Tafa unloads on Elekana before the round ends, and Elekana tags him back as they reach Round 2.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tafa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Tafa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tafa

Round 2
The 205ers nod to one another and share a glove touch to get going in the second stanza. Elekana probes out his front kick with toes extended to the body, and he slips a right hand over the top. Elekana looks to hand-fight and take away Tafa’s left hand, and he pokes out a few jabs and threatens a takedown. Tafa scoots out of the way and backs Elekana to the wall with a pair of punches, but he does not corner Elekana as Elekana walks away and moves to the center of the cage again. The crowd boos this, as if they are seeing that these fighters are pulling their punches. Elekana does not pull anything when tagging Tafa with a pair of punches, and his right hand on the temple catches Tafa unaware. Tafa stumbles but does not go down, gathering himself and knocking Elekana back before allowing him once more to return to the center of the cage. Elekana closes in and grabs hold of Tafa, dragging him to the mat from behind so that he can step over into full mount.
Tafa turns to his side while Elekana is in a dominant position, and Tafa rolls around all while Elekana wraps up the body triangle.
Elekana briefly flirts with a rear-naked choke, and switches arms to change to the other side and locks it up in a hurry. Tafa knows that the submission is tight as a drum and that there is no way out, and he quickly taps out to give “Son of Susie” the submission victory.
Just like the Micallef fight from before, it only took one takedown to completely change the nature of this fight and turn the tide to one man’s favor.

The Official Result
Billy Elekana def. Justin Tafa R2 3:18 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Billy Elekana

Angelo picks Billy Elekana, stating he is the better overall MMA fighter with solid takedown defense and patient striking. He acknowledges Junior Tafa's kickboxing skills but notes his takedown defense is a huge hole. He warns that the odds are steep at -225 and that Tafa could have success if Elekana tries to strike, but Elekana can adjust.

"Billy is the better MMA fighter, so I'm gonna go that route. I'm gonna pick him to win here because he's got the better overall MMA skills."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Billy Elekana

Big Brady is confident in Billy Elekana, citing Junior Tafa's poor grappling (white belt) and Elekana's submission win over Kevin Christian. He believes Elekana will take Tafa down and submit him in the first round, as Tafa made Tuco Tokos look like Khabib.

Elekana by submission in round 1
"I'm gonna take Billy Alicana to win this fight. I'm gonna take Alicana to win by first round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Billy Elekana

Cody is confident in Elekana, citing Tafa's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes that Elekana has good grappling and submission skills, and expects him to take Tafa down and submit him in the second round. He acknowledges Elekana is not a world-beater but sees this as a favorable matchup.

Elekana by submission
"I do feel like at some point Billy gets him to the ground and grabs a submission. He's got a good rear naked choke."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Billy Elekana

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Elekana. He emphasizes that Tafa's striking is not technical enough and he has no grappling, so Elekana should win if he doesn't freeze. Connor also comments on the odds, suggesting Elekana is overvalued.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"Yeah, I gotta pick Billy, Alakana. Yeah, but you know if Alakana doesn't if he if he freezes the way he can then Tafa could melt him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (17 days before fight)
Billy Elekana

Daniel Vreeland picks Elekana despite initially doubting him, citing Tafa's abysmal ground game. He believes Elekana can take Tafa down and finish quickly, though he warns that if Elekana bangs on the feet, he risks getting knocked out. Vreeland is surprised to be picking Elekana but sees a clear path to victory.

"I never thought in a million years I'd say this, but I'm actually picking Billy Alicana to win this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Billy Elekana

James picks Elekana to win by submission, citing his superior grappling and cardio. He believes Elekana will take Tafa down and finish what Sean Sherif started, likely with a rear-naked choke in round one.

"Billy Elekana is probably going to be able to take him down and get the choke here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Billy Elekana

Elekana is a solid BJJ specialist with good striking and timing. Tafa has poor takedown defense and is vulnerable on the ground, as seen in his submission losses. Elekana should evade Tafa's power shots, get takedowns, and find a submission within a round and a half. The host likes Elekana by submission at +210, noting that Tafa is a favorite fade.

Elekana by submission (+210)
"I think Alecana is just too slick. I think he'll evade those big shots, get in another takedown, get to a submission position, and I think shortly thereafter, he'll be able to find the tap here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Billy Elekana

Paul agrees, noting that Tafa has consistently gassed out and been finished in his UFC fights. He believes Elekana's grappling will be the difference and predicts a submission win in the second round.

Elekana by submission
"Elano by sub maybe in round two is kind of how I kind of see this fight playing out as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Billy Elekana

The Guru picks Billy Elekana, calling it a no-brainer. He praises Elekana's technical level, grappling, and toughness, noting his performance against Bogdan Guskov. He expects Elekana to submit Junior Tafa in the first round, as Tafa is less technical and relies on brawling.

first round submission
"First round submission for Billy Alakana."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Billy Elekana

Zane picks Billy Elekana because he sees Elekana as a reasonable light heavyweight prospect with decent athleticism and durability, despite his loss to Bogdan Guskov. He believes Elekana's grappling advantage will be decisive, as Junior Tafa cannot wrestle or grapple and relies on one big blitz. Zane notes that if Elekana freezes, Tafa could win, but overall Elekana should win by taking the fight to the ground.

Tafa opened at +150, now +215; Elekana opened at -175, now -255. Zane says he would not make those odds wider, implying Elekana is overvalued.
"I gotta pick Billy, Alakana. Yeah, but you know if Alakana doesn't if he if he freezes the way he can then Tafa could melt him, but Tafa just can't wrestle and he can't grapple."
CANCEL vs Ibo Aslan
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ibo Aslan

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Aslan. He emphasizes that Tafa's record is terrible and that he has never won a fight past two minutes. Connor notes that Aslan has never been knocked out and is capable of throwing power combos and low kicks. He thinks Aslan's pressure and durability will overwhelm Tafa, who is purely a reactive striker with no control.

"I think I have to pick Louis Sutherland because you know what hasn't happened to Louis Sutherland so far in his career? It's never been knocked out."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ibo Aslan

Zane picks Aslan, reasoning that Aslan is a nuts-and-bolts slugger who will pressure Tafa and throw combinations. He notes that Tafa is a reactive striker who throws one big punch at a time and has poor durability. Zane believes Aslan's willingness to blitz with power combos and his ability to go past the first round give him the edge, as Tafa has never won a fight that went past two minutes.

"I think I have to pick Louis Sutherland because you know what hasn't happened to Louis Sutherland so far in his career? It's never been knocked out."
LOSS vs Tuco Tokkos
Submission R2 4:25 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Jul 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Junior Tafa 0 24 of 38 63% 25 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:27
Tuco Tokkos 0 11 of 22 50% 31 of 57 5 of 9 55% 1 0 7:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Junior Tafa 0 16 of 23 69% 17 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:12
Tuco Tokkos 0 6 of 9 66% 14 of 19 4 of 6 66% 0 0 4:14
2 Junior Tafa 0 8 of 15 53% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Tuco Tokkos 0 5 of 13 38% 17 of 38 1 of 3 33% 1 0 3:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Junior Tafa 24 of 38 63% 21 of 35 3 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 14 10 of 10 8 of 14
Tuco Tokkos 11 of 22 50% 7 of 17 0 of 1 4 of 4 4 of 9 0 of 0 7 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Junior Tafa 16 of 23 69% 15 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 8 of 8 7 of 10
Tuco Tokkos 6 of 9 66% 3 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 5
2 Junior Tafa 8 of 15 53% 6 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 9 2 of 2 1 of 4
Tuco Tokkos 5 of 13 38% 4 of 11 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 8
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Junior Tafa vs. George Tokkos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tafa (-175); Tokkos (+140)

Round 1
Down about 35 pounds with some serious physical transformation on his behalf, Tafa (6-3, 2-3 UFC) is aiming for a new lease on life at light heavyweight. He will be able to trade with a willing dance partner in Tokkos (10-5, 0-2 UFC), where a knockout may not be guaranteed but it is greatly expected. Before the bludgeoning, referee Eric McMahon clocks the fighters in, and they bump fists.
Tokkos says hello with a chopping low kick, and Tafa checks a second one and attacks behind his jab. Tafa checks another kick, and he finds himself facing a single-leg entry from the Brit. Tafa elbows the side of the head a few times, and Tokkos still manages to wrangle him to the floor. Tokkos keeps hold of Tafa’s left leg to trap him on the mat, and he holds in there. Fans are not amused by the lack of activity of the two sluggers, and Tafa takes advantage of their momentum and stands up. The Kiwi hacks down the back of the head a few times, grabs the fence and is still dragged to his seat courtesy of the Tokkos single. Tafa wall-walks upright and is mat returned in a hurry. Tafa stands, and he wraps up a power guillotine choke only to release it to slash down with elbows.
Tokkos throws Tafa back down to the floor with emphasis, and Tafa repositions himself to sit on his seat. Tokkos smothers the former heavyweight with chest pressure, and McMahon tells them they need to do more than stall out. Tafa gets to a knee, and Tokkos takes his back and loops one hook around the legs. Tokkos dives after a short choke, and Tafa gives up his back and starts fighting hands. Tokkos resets himself to set up a rear-naked choke, and he releases it to shift to full mount, arm-triangle briefly in play. Tokkos postures up to drive down punches, getting warned for back of the head shots as well. He continues to impose his weight on Tafa, and is warned for grabbing inside the glove to keep Tafa on the mat. Tafa flips him over with seconds to go and lets Tokkos have it, cutting Tokkos on the top of the head as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tokkos
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Tokkos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tokkos

Round 2
Tafa touches gloves with his foe and unleashes a hellacious overhand right. Tokkos shrugs at him, but he is beaned by another big right. Tafa clubs him with an uppercut, and Tokkos falls on his face. Tokkos rolls around on the mat to try to get Tafa in a grappling exchange, and Tafa stands up and makes him get up. Tokkos explodes forward, nailing Tafa with a shock right hand that he uses to set up a takedown after it. Tafa gets dragged to the mat, and Tokkos clings to him and holds on with a front choke. Along the way, he is warned for grabbing Tafa’s gloves. Tokkos steps over to half guard and easily climbs to three-quarter mount, only to pull himself back one step so he keeps Tafa flat on his back. Tokkos sits up and drives down punches and hammerfists, and Tafa turns to his side to survive. Tokkos quits punching for the most part to get a hook in around the side.
Tafa shifts to his back again, and Tokkos considers an arm-triangle choke and is admonished for eye gouging when he puts his fingers on Tafa’s face. Tokkos sits up again to land some bombs, and he uses the punches to set up a rear-naked choke. Tafa on his side is able to break up the submission, but Tokkos is still on him making him carry every additional pound.
This time, Tokkos advances to full mount, and he latches on with an arm-triangle choke and steps over to the side. Crushing down with all of his energy, Tokkos forces Tafa to submit to the choke.
McMahon breaks up the sub, and Tokkos strides away and drops to his knees to take in his first UFC victory.

The Official Result
George Tokkos def. Junior Tafa R2 4:25 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jul 6, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Tuco Tokkos

Angelo picks Tuco Tokkos but admits he can't bet on him because Tokkos is winless in the UFC. He thinks Tokkos can get the fight to the ground and control Junior Tafa, who has poor takedown defense and looked out of shape in his last fight. However, he notes Tokkos is not reliable enough to bet on as a dog.

Cannot bet on Tokkos despite picking him due to unreliability.
"Tuk Tukos is the pick. Plus 145. Not reliable enough to jump on that as a dog."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 8, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Big Brady hates this fight from a betting standpoint. He warns that Junior Tafa's ground game is terrible and if Tuco Tokkos gets him down, it could be bad. However, he cannot rely on Tokkos to wrestle or do anything. He picks Tafa by default, expecting a first-round knockout, but says he would never lay -160 on Tafa.

first round knockout
"I'm going to take Junior Tafa. Junior Tafa to win by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tuco Tokkos

Connor picks Tokkos hesitantly, noting that Junior Tafa is a one-dimensional slugger who is very upright and easy to navigate. He acknowledges that Tokkos is hurtable and awkward, but believes his wrestling and toughness might be enough to outwork Tafa. Connor admits Tafa could knock Tokkos out, but he leans toward Tokkos due to Tafa's lack of versatility.

"I'm going to pick Tucko Tuckos. What the hell? ... Junior Taffa might knock his ass out, but I'm going to pick Tucko Tuckos."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tuco Tokkos

The host is not a fan of either fighter but believes Tokkos has the BJJ black belt to take Tafa to the ground and find a submission quickly. He criticizes Tafa's overall skill level, noting he has decent pop but is not a good fighter. Tokkos has underperformed in the UFC but has the grappling chops to win.

submission
"Not a big fan of either guy here, but Junior Tafa is just not that good of a fighter in my opinion. He has decent pop and decent striking, but Tuko Togo is a BJJ black belt who has somewhat …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

The MMA Guru picks Junior Tafa, noting he is in shape for his light heavyweight debut and has had some success in the UFC, unlike Tuco Tokkos who has lost three straight and shown no success. He expects Tafa to be 'lean and mean' and score a first-round TKO, as Tokkos has been finished in all his losses.

first round TKO
"I'm forced to choose Junior Tafa by TKO. ... I reckon he's going to score this one. TKO first round over Taco Toos."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tuco Tokkos

Zane also picks Tokkos, reasoning that Tafa's move down to light heavyweight won't fix his fundamental issues. He notes that Tokkos is a hard worker who tries to win, and that Tafa's one-note striking might not be enough to put him away. Zane is not confident, calling it a terrible fight.

"Yeah, I think I will too. Junior Taffa might knock his ass out, but I'm going to pick Tucko Tuckos."
CANCEL vs Tuco Tokkos
WIN vs Sean Sharaf
TKO (punches) R2 2:15 · UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · Oct 12, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Junior Tafa 0 71 of 128 55% 71 of 128 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Sean Sharaf 0 53 of 118 44% 54 of 122 1 of 8 12% 0 0 0:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Junior Tafa 0 36 of 75 48% 36 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Sharaf 0 46 of 102 45% 47 of 106 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:46
2 Junior Tafa 0 35 of 53 66% 35 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Sean Sharaf 0 7 of 16 43% 7 of 16 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Junior Tafa 71 of 128 55% 61 of 117 10 of 11 0 of 0 71 of 128 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Sharaf 53 of 118 44% 39 of 101 7 of 10 7 of 7 44 of 93 1 of 3 8 of 22
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Junior Tafa 36 of 75 48% 28 of 66 8 of 9 0 of 0 36 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Sharaf 46 of 102 45% 34 of 87 6 of 9 6 of 6 37 of 78 1 of 2 8 of 22
2 Junior Tafa 35 of 53 66% 33 of 51 2 of 2 0 of 0 35 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Sharaf 7 of 16 43% 5 of 14 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sean Sharaf vs. Junior Tafa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: ODDS: Tafa (-400), Sharaf (+250)

Round 1
The UFC nearly went two months without staging a heavyweight fight, with the last one between Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Tai Tuivasa in the middle of August. Tafa (5-3, 1-3 UFC), one of the other hefty participants that night, will try to get back in the win column at the expense of relative neophyte Sharaf (4-0, 0-0 UFC). Referee Mark Smith will be keeping his head on a swivel, as these two sluggers combine for nine knockouts across their nine wins. Gloves are briefly touched, and Sharaf does not waste time and winds up a low kick and look for a big right hand. Sharaf backs Tafa against the fence and swings for the bleachers, forcing Tafa to bounce off the wall. Tafa jabs to the body, and Sharaf comes up top with a one-two. Tafa splits the guard with long punches, and Sharaf thumps the front leg with a kick. Tafa winds up with a counter right hand to nail the newcomer on the side of the head, and Sharaf dives after him for a takedown. Tafa grabs the fence to keep himself on his feet, and Smith is not happy about that and calls time to warn him of his foul. When they resume, it does not take more than a few seconds for Sharaf to charge his foe and get the takedown he was seeking. Tafa does not stay on his back for long before getting back to his feet, and they stand in the center of the cage and trade single strikes. The ferocity between the two is not nearly as intense as before, but Tafa breaks this up by blasting Sharaf in the side of the head and shaking him up. Tafa showboats by pointing at Sharaf’s corner, and Sharaf surges into action with thunderous punches that back “The Juggernaut” to the wall again. Tafa strafes away in part due to a successful takedown defense, and he scores a few leg kicks and follows one with a left hook. Sharaf keeps a decent poker face but is stung from the blow, and Tafa winds up and nails him on the temple to further shake him up. Tafa marches him down, walking through wild counters while picking his shots that are landing cleaner and heavier. Tafa backs off to adjust his shorts, and he checks a calf kick and leans back as a left hook comes his way. Tafa slips two lefts around the guard and unloads haymakers, only for Sharaf to stand form and rock him with two hooks and drag him to the mat with a double. Tafa turns to his side as Sharaf claims full mount, and Sharaf beats on him with punches and elbows. Sharaf swarms his man with elbows until the horn saves an exhausted Tafa.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sharaf
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Sharaf
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sharaf

Round 2
The big men are sucking wind after five minutes of brawling, and they get back to it and tap their large hands together. Tafa fights behind his jab, tripling up on it and following with a right hand. Sharaf tries a labored shot, and he gets caught with a right hand. Sharaf steps out with a left hand, and Tafa intercepts him with an uppercut while stopping a shot. Sharaf digs a left to the body and a right to the head, and Tafa surges into action. Tafa winds up a massive right hand, and Sharaf don’t like it. His casbah is rocked. Tafa throws hammers until he runs out of steam, and he has no choice but to disengage as Sharaf is still in the fight albeit bloodied from his left eye. Tafa unloads a right hand around the guard of his opponent, and he marches forward and rifles off three uppercuts. Sharaf is barely on his feet, taking a deep breath and leaning back to avoid a haymaker. Tafa laughs off a possible shot and walks Sharaf from one side of the cage to the other.
The spent Kiwi summons all his energy into one final punch, in the form of a booming right hand that clips Sharaf on the temple. Sharaf stumbles away, hanging on tightly to consciousness, and Smith sees he is not intelligently defending himself and waves the fight off.
Taking the fight earlier this week, Sharaf showed off several solid moments and about five minutes of cardio, and Tafa had just a little more in the tank to get his hand raised. The victorious “Juggernaut” retains his 100% knockout rate, and he drops to his seat in exhaustion.

The Official Result
Junior Tafa def. Sean Sharaf R2 2:15 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Angelo picks Junior Tafa, citing his kickboxing skills and the fact that Chris Barnett hasn't fought in two years. He notes that Barnett's athleticism declines with age and that Tafa should be able to piece him up on the feet. Angelo mentions that Tafa's takedown defense is a hole, but Barnett is unlikely to exploit it. He believes Tafa will win via striking and that the layoff will show rust on Barnett.

"Junior TAA should be able to get it done... he's just going to get pieced up on the feet."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Big Brady picks Junior Tafa to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Tafa is a sizable favorite and has the striking advantage, but acknowledges that if Sharaf wrestles, Tafa has no takedown defense or ground game. However, since Sharaf hasn't shown wrestling, Brady expects Tafa to knock him out early. He mentions the under is juiced and thinks someone gets finished in the first round.

Tafa by first-round knockout; under is juiced to -310/-320
"I got to go TAA here minus 310 is it is what it is but I think he knocks out sharf in the first round"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.

CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Junior Tafa

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Sharaf is a typical heavyweight signing with no tape, who will be aggressive but likely sucks if he doesn't knock Tafa out instantly. He points out that Tafa has at least shown some striking ability and is not as easily overwhelmed as Sharaf's previous opponents.

"Yeah, I mean junior toff is not much different from all these other guys. He was one of these guys who gets signed"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Daniel notes Tafa's significant size and age advantages over Barnett, who is 5'8", 38 years old, and obese. He believes Tafa's striking is excellent and that Barnett will stand and trade, leading to a knockout. The only concern is Tafa's poor grappling if taken down, but Daniel thinks Barnett won't attempt takedowns.

by KO
"I think Junior Tafa is going to come out here and starch Chris Barnett."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Sean Sharaf

The host is not a fan of Junior Tafa, calling him overrated with only one UFC victory that he 'cheated' to get via a fence grab. Sharaf is a short-notice replacement but a longtime member of Extreme Couture, training with Francis Ngannou and others. Sharaf should engage in striking and possibly grappling, showcasing better MMA and pulling off the upset.

"I'm not a big fan of Junior Tafa I think he's more overrated than anything"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

The MMA Guru picks Junior Tafa over Chris Barnett (note: transcript says Chris Barnett but fight card lists Sean Sharaf; likely a mistake in transcript). He trusts Tafa's boxing and power at heavyweight over Barnett's kicks and unorthodox striking. He notes Barnett's history of being knocked out and his poor boxing, while Tafa is young and hits hard with clean boxing.

"I'm going to go Junior taer I just trust boxing at heavyweight a lot more than I do kicks and Junior TAA has got a lot of power"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Junior Tafa

Zane picks Tafa because he has more experience and can throw combinations, having done some kickboxing. He notes that Sharaf has almost no tape and is likely a one-dimensional knockout artist who will struggle if he doesn't finish early. Zane thinks Tafa's craftiness with punches gives him the edge.

"I'm just going to go with the more experienced Striker who i've seen tape of"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.

LOSS vs Valter Walker
Submission (heel hook) R1 4:56 · UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Valter Walker 0 5 of 8 62% 10 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Junior Tafa 0 4 of 4 100% 20 of 23 2 of 3 66% 1 0 3:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Valter Walker 0 5 of 8 62% 10 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Junior Tafa 0 4 of 4 100% 20 of 23 2 of 3 66% 1 0 3:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Valter Walker 5 of 8 62% 4 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0
Junior Tafa 4 of 4 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Valter Walker 5 of 8 62% 4 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0
Junior Tafa 4 of 4 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Junior Tafa vs. Valter Walker
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tafa (-130), Walker (+110)

Round 1
The prelims close with a heavyweight smash-‘em-up derby where one of these two heavy hitters will likely wind up face down before it is all over. All but one of Tafa’s (5-2, 1-2 UFC) pro outings have ended by knockout, while Walker (11-1, 0-1 UFC) is no stranger to bludgeoning another man unconscious. Keeping his head on a swivel will be referee Steve Perceval, as feet and fists are sure to soar in moments. Before that happens, there is a sporting glove touch from the competitors. They are uncharacteristically tentative to begin the fight, with only one leg kick landing for the first 30 seconds. Tafa walks through the kick and busts Walker in the face, stumbling Walker against the cage. Tafa continues throwing hands, stinging Walker again, and Walker tries to slow things down and pursue a takedown. On his second effort, Walker manages to wrench “The Juggernaut” to the canvas. Tafa scoots to the fence and wall-walks to stand up, and Tafa grabs the fence to fight off a mat return. Walker scoops his legs out beneath him and dumps Tafa to the floor, and Tafa again grabs the cage in hopes of standing. Perceval is on top of it, warning Tafa again. Walker gets in a single left hand while trying to keep Tafa on the mat, hoping to settle in half guard. Walker grinds from on top with occasional short punches, and the crowd tries to energize Tafa with a local chant. Tafa remains pinned to the floor with a heavy man above him, and Perceval asks for more activity. Tafa clings to the neck to keep Walker stuck, or perhaps force a standup, and Walker breaks out of it and jams down an elbow. Commentators Daniel Cormier and Dominick Cruz heavily criticize Tafa’s complete inability and seeming lack of knowledge to get back to his feet, and
Walker changes things up by rolling for a sudden heel hook. Tafa flops to his back and screams, and as soon as he turns to his side, Perceval waves the fight off while shouting “Stop!”
Tafa is enraged, going to slap Walker in the face after the fight concludes, claiming that he did not tap out. His shout out was considered a verbal submission by Perceval—the right call, with screams specifically considered verbal tapouts in the Unified Rules—and officials pull the upset Tafa away and force him back to his corner. Tafa is not about to drop it, continuing to shout at the victorious Walker and flip him the middle finger during the official announcement. No amount of protest from Tafa will change the result, which will stand as a submission.

The Official Result
Valter Walker def. Junior Tafa R1 4:56 via Verbal Submission (Heel Hook)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 11, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Angelo picks Valter Walker to win via wrestling, believing he can get takedowns and control Junior Tafa, who has shown poor takedown defense. However, he talks himself out of betting on Walker because his last fight was an embarrassing cardio failure, and the odds are not plus money. He calls Walker 'absolutely horrible' but thinks he can win if he shows up prepared.

No bet; talked himself out of it
"I just talked myself at good job an nice pep talk I talked myself out of betting on you can't bet on him he's just so bad."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Big Brady picks Junior Tafa to win by second-round knockout. He is not high on either fighter but thinks Tafa has the advantage on the feet. He notes Valter Walker can wrestle and will likely get takedowns in the first round, but Walker gasses out early and looked terrible in his last fight. He expects Walker to tire in the second round, allowing Tafa to stuff takedowns and land a knockout. He says he would not bet this fight with a 10-foot pole, especially laying chalk on Tafa.

knockout in round 2
"I'm going to take tofa to win this fight by second round knock out"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Cody believes Walker's wrestling will be the difference, as Tafa has poor takedown defense and no get-up game. He notes Walker looked improved physically and should learn from his debut loss. Cody expects Walker to take Tafa down and control him, possibly earning a submission or decision.

"I got vter Walker"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Daniel Vreeland picks Valter Walker to win a decision, expecting him to look better than his debut. He notes that Tafa has been taken down and lost in the past, and that Walker's grappling could be the difference. Vreeland acknowledges the volatility and that Tafa has finishing upside, but leans toward the underdog Walker at plus money.

"I'll go with him plus 115 to kind of come back and have a better performance"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Valter Walker

The host loves Walker as a plus-115 underdog, citing Tafa's poor takedown defense and ground game. He expects Walker to take Tafa down and grind him out, possibly finishing by ground and pound or submission. He calls the line a gift and is mystified by it.

Walker by ground and pound or submission
"plus 115 is a gift of a line if again mystified I wouldn't be surprised if Walker ends up finishing"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Paul agrees, noting that everyone who has tried to take Tafa down has succeeded, and that Walker's best skill is wrestling. He warns that if Walker stands and trades, he'll get knocked out, but expects him to stick to the game plan. Paul also mentions Walker's improved physique and the need to see weigh-ins.

"I'm with you wter Walker"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

The MMA Guru picks Junior Tafa over Valter Walker. He acknowledges Walker's grappling but calls him a dumb fighter who didn't shoot takedowns against Lucas Brzeski despite getting them every time. He believes Tafa's takedown defense, shown against Mohammed Usman, will hold up. He predicts Tafa will KO Walker, calling Walker a large middleweight rather than a true heavyweight. He rants about heavyweight fighters being brainless.

KO
"I'll go with Junior Taffer here over vter Walker... he'll KO vter Walker via being a large middleweight instead of an actually heavyweight sized man"
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Angelo picks Junior Tafa as an underdog, noting his power and durability. He thinks Marcos will struggle to take Tafa down due to Tafa's size and hips. He plans to bet Tafa inside the distance decision no action, as Tafa has finishing upside and Marcos is likely to win a decision if he avoids the knockout.

Junior Tafa wins inside distance (decision no action)
"I think Justin taffa is more than enough durable to not get finished here and all the finishing upside is on his side"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Big Brady picks Marcos Rogério de Lima to win by first-round submission. He notes de Lima has more ways to win with his BJJ black belt and wrestling, and expects him to get the fight to the mat where Tafa is untested. He acknowledges Tafa has power and could land a knockout, but leans de Lima due to his grappling advantage. He says he can't have much confidence in either fighter.

de Lima by submission, round 1
"give me to Lima first round sub I don't think this fight is going is going to last long one way or another but give me the guy that I think has more ways to win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Cody picks Tafa as a dog, expressing strong dislike for de Lima. He notes de Lima's poor cardio and tendency to gas after one round, as seen in the Stefan Struve fight. He believes Tafa's power will eventually catch de Lima, especially if de Lima tires. He sees Tafa as a live underdog at plus money.

"I will take we got a under dog on McKenzie Daren was the first dog pick of the card I'm going to go follow it up with the second dog pick and take tofa."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Daniel picks Junior Tafa, calling him a 'bad man' who swangs and bangs. He likes Tafa's power and youth compared to de Lima. He hopes Tafa can keep the fight on the feet and thinks he is worth a dabble as a dog.

"dog time TAA is the pick he's a bad he's a bad man he swangs and bangs... hopefully tofa can keep this on the feet but I think tof is worth a dabble as a dog here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Daniel Vreeland picks Junior Tafa, despite acknowledging de Lima's experience and grappling advantage. He is concerned about de Lima's recent knockout loss to Derrick Lewis, where he suffered severe dental damage, and questions his recovery. He believes Tafa's power gives him a chance, especially if de Lima is compromised. He notes Tafa's improvements and the fact that de Lima has been finished before.

"I'm actually going to go taffa here."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Jeff picks Junior Tafa as a dog. He is less worried about Tafa keeping the fight standing and more convinced that de Lima won't shoot takedowns quickly enough. He compares de Lima to fighters like Devin Clark who don't wrestle when they should. He warns that Tafa has one of the worst resumes of any UFC heavyweight, so he advises against betting heavily. He thinks Tafa's boxing will hold up.

"I think I'm gonna dabble with Justin tofa too uh I think I'm less worried about whether he can keep it on the feet and more kind of just convinced that Marcos Rogério de Lima won't shoot a takedown fast enough."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

De Lima has solid power, good leg kicks, and a grapple-heavy style to neutralize Tafa's punching power. He has matured enough to take the fight to the ground and keep Tafa from getting off. Expects a decision win.

"give me Delma and Delma by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Paul picks de Lima, citing his size and takedown ability. He notes that de Lima has a grappling advantage and can take Tafa down. He expects de Lima to use leg kicks and takedowns to win, though he admits he has no intention of betting this fight early.

"the pick for me right now will be Marcos rogerio Del Lima."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

The MMA Guru leans toward Junior Tafa, citing his momentum and improvements, while noting Marcos Rogério de Lima is coming off a KO loss. He calls it a coin flip and admits he doesn't mind de Lima as an underdog. He mentions Tafa's KO power and de Lima's stagnation, but acknowledges Tafa's losses to Jared Vanderaa and Carlos Felipe.

"I'm going to lean towards Tafa... I'll take the momentum of Tafa, the improvements of him over the stagnation of Marcos Rodrigo Del Lima."
Comments (1)
BR
brian 8 months, 2 weeks ago

Fighting at HW and getting leg kicked by Marcos is no Joke. Tafa with no wrestling in his tool belt was cooked after the leg kicks. Probably tough as nails but there no winning after the leg was fecked