UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Dec 17, 2022 · Lightweight · Completed
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Age 29
Height 5' 7"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 35
Height 5' 10"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Arman Tsarukyan
3.85 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
1.8 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
3.26 TD Avg
37.0% TD Acc.
75.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Damir Ismagulov
3.36 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
2.44 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
1.0 TD Avg
28.0% TD Acc.
70.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Arman Tsarukyan
Moneyline
Caesars -190
KO/TKO
BetRivers +425
Submission
BetRivers +1050
Decision
FanDuel +140
Damir Ismagulov
Moneyline
FanDuel +176
KO/TKO
BetRivers +850
Submission
DraftKings +3000
Decision
FanDuel +250
Arman Tsarukyan - Fight History
WIN vs Dan Hooker
Submission R2 3:34 · UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Nov 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Arman Tsarukyan 0 42 of 60 70% 69 of 89 2 of 4 50% 1 0 6:02
Dan Hooker 0 10 of 33 30% 17 of 41 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Arman Tsarukyan 0 19 of 30 63% 32 of 45 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:16
Dan Hooker 0 5 of 20 25% 9 of 25 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:10
2 Arman Tsarukyan 0 23 of 30 76% 37 of 44 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:46
Dan Hooker 0 5 of 13 38% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Arman Tsarukyan 42 of 60 70% 33 of 49 3 of 5 6 of 6 18 of 31 2 of 2 22 of 27
Dan Hooker 10 of 33 30% 3 of 20 6 of 12 1 of 1 9 of 30 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Arman Tsarukyan 19 of 30 63% 12 of 22 2 of 3 5 of 5 15 of 26 2 of 2 2 of 2
Dan Hooker 5 of 20 25% 2 of 13 2 of 6 1 of 1 4 of 17 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Arman Tsarukyan 23 of 30 76% 21 of 27 1 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 5 0 of 0 20 of 25
Dan Hooker 5 of 13 38% 1 of 7 4 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Angelo leans Arman Tsarukyan over Dan Hooker, but calls the -550 odds insane. He notes Tsarukyan's wrestling and striking are elite, but Hooker has heart and takedown defense, as seen against Gamrot. Tsarukyan should get takedowns and control Hooker, but Hooker could make it a dogfight. Angelo suggests Hooker at +5.5 is a decent bet.

Minus 550 is insane; Dan Hooker at plus five and a half seems like it could be a decent bet.
"I have to slightly lean Arman Sooqi because of the wrestling upside, but minus 550 is insane."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady picks Arman Tsarukyan (Magomed Ankalaev) by third-round KO, citing his championship caliber and youth. He notes Hooker's struggles against top competition and expects Ankalaev to finish him via TKO on the mat or a big shot on the feet.

third round KO
"I'm going to take Magomed Ankalaev to win this fight and win it by third round KO."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Cody picks Arman Tsarukyan but is hesitant due to the betting line. He notes Arman has the grappling edge and is younger, but Dan Hooker thrives in five-round fights and has a decent get-up game. Cody worries about Arman's past fatigue and the possibility of judges favoring damage over control time in Qatar. He suggests hedging after the first round if Hooker is still competitive.

"I got Arman Sukian, but I'm not loving the number I'm getting here, Paul."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Connor picks Tsarukyan as a knee-jerk reaction, citing his elite grappling and top control. He notes Hooker's vulnerability to early finishes and slow starts, but acknowledges Hooker's toughness and 25% chance of a KO. Connor emphasizes Tsarukyan's bullying style and potential to finish quickly on the ground.

Tsarukyan by submission or early KO; Hooker has 25% chance to clip him
"I'm picking Suruken, but I still like this fight. You know, I think, I guess all of this is to say that like, I think you have to pick Suruken as just sort of a knee-jerk reaction to this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Lucrative James picks Arman Tsarukyan despite rooting for Dan Hooker. He cites Arman's elite wrestling as the key factor, noting Hooker's historical struggles with grapplers. He mentions Arman's age advantage (29 vs 35), recent training with the Russian Olympic wrestling team, and improved submission game. He also notes Hooker's inactivity and hand surgery concerns. However, he acknowledges Hooker's dangerous striking and hopes for an upset.

submission prop mentioned as potentially live
"I do think Arman Surukin is going to win this matchup. That would be my pick gun to my head."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Tsarukyan is a top lightweight with elite wrestling and cardio. Hooker is durable but has taken a lot of damage. Tsarukyan should dominate with grappling and pressure, winning by decision or late finish. The method is uncertain but the win is solid.

"I think Sukian wins. I think he wins at a pretty decent clip."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

Paul leans towards Dan Hooker as a plus money underdog, citing value at plus 420. He acknowledges Arman's takedowns are the path of least resistance against Hooker, but believes Hooker can hang around and make it competitive. Paul mentions that if forced to bet one side right now, he'd take Hooker, but he doesn't have to bet it.

"I'd probably take this plus 420 on Dan Hooker."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan over Dan Hooker, citing Arman's superior grappling and ability to maintain dominant positions. He notes Hooker's broken arms and believes Arman will finish him via ground and pound in round two or three. He acknowledges Hooker's underrated takedown defense but trusts Arman's improvement.

second or third round mount ground and pound TKO
"I'm going to go with Arman Tsarukyan here over Dan Hooker."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Tsarukyan due to his superior wrestling and top control. He notes Hooker's tendency to start slow and get overwhelmed, but also mentions Hooker's durability and ability to make fights competitive over five rounds. Zane highlights Tsarukyan's power and speed as key factors.

Tsarukyan by finish; Hooker could make it a war
"I fully believe that Armand Suruken can do both of those things. You know, he has the power to do that, to do either, to just go out and flatten Hooker or to go out, take him down and break …"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Arman Tsarukyan 0 19 of 37 51% 33 of 53 0 of 0 --- 4 1 2:32
Charles Oliveira 0 49 of 83 59% 75 of 117 2 of 4 50% 0 1 8:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Arman Tsarukyan 0 9 of 11 81% 12 of 14 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:44
Charles Oliveira 0 9 of 16 56% 19 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:42
2 Arman Tsarukyan 0 5 of 9 55% 14 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Charles Oliveira 0 22 of 36 61% 38 of 54 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:49
3 Arman Tsarukyan 0 5 of 17 29% 7 of 19 0 of 0 --- 2 1 0:48
Charles Oliveira 0 18 of 31 58% 18 of 31 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Arman Tsarukyan 19 of 37 51% 11 of 22 5 of 9 3 of 6 7 of 24 6 of 6 6 of 7
Charles Oliveira 49 of 83 59% 37 of 69 10 of 11 2 of 3 23 of 50 3 of 4 23 of 29
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Arman Tsarukyan 9 of 11 81% 5 of 6 1 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 4 2 of 2 4 of 5
Charles Oliveira 9 of 16 56% 6 of 12 2 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 8 1 of 1 5 of 7
2 Arman Tsarukyan 5 of 9 55% 4 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 1 2 of 6 1 of 1 2 of 2
Charles Oliveira 22 of 36 61% 19 of 32 3 of 3 0 of 1 9 of 18 1 of 2 12 of 16
3 Arman Tsarukyan 5 of 17 29% 2 of 10 3 of 6 0 of 1 2 of 14 3 of 3 0 of 0
Charles Oliveira 18 of 31 58% 12 of 25 5 of 5 1 of 1 11 of 24 1 of 1 6 of 6
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Angelo picks Arman Tsarukyan, comparing him to Islam Makhachev with slightly better striking and slightly worse wrestling. He believes Tsarukyan's wrestling will be too much for Oliveira, similar to how Islam submitted him. He notes the public heavily favors Oliveira but the oddsmakers have Tsarukyan as favorite for a reason.

"I think Armen is basically Islam I think he's got slightly better striking slightly worse wrestling and I think he wins here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Cody believes Charles Oliveira's defensive flaws will be exposed. He notes Oliveira takes a lot of damage and relies on comebacks, which is unsustainable. Tsarukyan is a strong wrestler with good takedown defense (only taken down by Islam Makhachev and a former KSW champion). Cody thinks Oliveira won't be able to take Tsarukyan down, forcing a striking battle where Tsarukyan's power and youth will prevail. He mentions Tsarukyan's impressive physique and recent knockout of Beneil Dariush. Cody sees Tsarukyan as the fresher, ascending fighter who will eventually land a big right hand and finish Oliveira.

"I do favor Armen suuki to get the job done."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Daniel Vreeland picks Arman Tsarukyan, agreeing with guest Giani that Tsarukyan's wrestling and pressure will be key. He notes that Tsarukyan is younger, has a comparable style to Islam Makhachev, and will not hesitate to follow Oliveira to the ground. Vreeland believes Oliveira's submission threat is real but Tsarukyan's top control and ground-and-pound will win rounds.

"I'm on Arman as well"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Daniel Vreeland picks Arman Tsarukyan, noting that the line is a bit wide but he likes Tsarukyan's youth and finishing ability. He mentions that Tsarukyan's grappling and wrestling are top-notch, and that Oliveira will struggle to get takedowns. He also notes that Tsarukyan has power on the feet and less mileage than Oliveira.

"I'm taking San excuse me as well I thought you were going Charlie Alives this is the one I differing on yeah okay maybe won't differ in any no I'll take cin much younger and is uh you know been …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Jeff Fox picks Arman Tsarukyan, citing that the only fighters who have given Oliveira trouble are exceptional wrestlers. He notes that Oliveira's takedown game won't be enough against Tsarukyan's wrestling, and that Tsarukyan's kickboxing will take over. He also mentions that Tsarukyan's scrambles with Islam Makhachev on short notice show his level.

"I am going to go with Arman cuki in uh largely because if you look at the type of people who have ever given him trouble it's always exceptional wrestlers"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He mentions that bookmakers expect Arman Tsarukyan to win as a decent favorite, and that if he wins, a rematch with Islam Makhachev is likely. He calls it a banger but does not state his own prediction.

"if Arman Tsarukyan wins that fight which the bookmakers expect him to do as a decent sized favorite then you already know they're going to do the Islam rematch"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Tsarukyan will nullify Oliveira's grappling and his submission defense will keep Oliveira in bad positions. Tsarukyan's big power on the feet will find Oliveira's chin and knock him out within two rounds.

knockout within two rounds
"I ultimately think it's going to be sarin's big Power on his feet that eventually finds the chin of Oliva and he knocks him out within two rounds"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Paul sees Tsarukyan as the fresher fighter with fewer miles. He notes that Tsarukyan's short-notice fight against Islam Makhachev was competitive and looks good in hindsight. Paul points out that Tsarukyan has a good chin and has only been knocked out once, early in his career. He expects Charles to come out hot and have early success, but Tsarukyan will weather the storm and take over. Paul also mentions that if Tsarukyan scores takedowns, he must be careful of Oliveira's guard, but he believes Tsarukyan's youth and power will be the difference.

"I get that... I expect Charles to probably come out hot have some real success early but outside of getting knocked out super super early... hasn't been knocked out... I think suin is the fresher guy in shape headed upwards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira to submit Arman Tsarukyan via guillotine in round one. He believes Oliveira will wobble Tsarukyan with a left hook, prompting a panicked takedown attempt that Oliveira will capitalize on. He dismisses Tsarukyan's grappling credentials, noting he was wobbled by Walkin Silva.

guillotine round one
"Charles Ola guillotining the [ __ ] out of you badly after rocking you with a left hook."
KO (knee and punches) R1 1:04 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Arman Tsarukyan 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Beneil Dariush 1 8 of 15 53% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Arman Tsarukyan 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Beneil Dariush 1 8 of 15 53% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Arman Tsarukyan 2 of 8 25% 0 of 5 0 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Beneil Dariush 8 of 15 53% 8 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 2 of 2 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Arman Tsarukyan 2 of 8 25% 0 of 5 0 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Beneil Dariush 8 of 15 53% 8 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 2 of 2 2 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Beneil Dariush vs. Arman Tsarukyan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tsarukyan (-278), Dariush (+225)

Round 1
Lightweights close the show in the five-round headliner, where Dariush (22-5-1, 16-5-1 UFC) sets his sights on Tsarukyan (20-3, 7-2 UFC) at 155 pounds. Tsarukyan has rattled off eight victories across his past nine outings.
For more on the American Top Team standout, see “Rivalries: Arman Tsarukyan” in Features
. Smith administers the law and order once the Octagon door closes. They touch gloves to get us started in the final bout of the night. Dariush fires an inside leg kick, eats a jab and then attacks the leg again.
Tsarukyan steps forward with a knee and follows it with a brutal right hook, dropping Dariush where he stands. He then dives in with punches and pounds Dariush unconscious. A signature victory for the young lightweight contender
.

The Official Result
Arman Tsarukyan def. Beneil Dariush—KO (Punches) 1:04 R1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady picks Arman Tsarukyan, citing youth, cardio, and durability advantages. He notes Dariush has been finished in all five of his losses, and that Tsarukyan's relentless pace will break him down in the later rounds. He predicts a third-round TKO, as Tsarukyan's ground and pound and big shots will eventually finish Dariush.

third round TKO
"I see suruki going out there and getting a third round TKO in this one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Cody picks Tsarukyan but acknowledges Dariush's skills and path to victory. He notes Dariush's cardio, high ring IQ, and BJJ black belt, but thinks Tsarukyan's speed and youth are decisive. He mentions Tsarukyan's five-round experience and that he's only getting better. He doesn't love the money line but expects Tsarukyan to win, possibly by finish.

decision props considered but not bet
"I think darush is a lot a bigger like the it's a good plus money for sure and he's he he I think he's gonna give a better account of himself than that might dictate but it's not enough for …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Lucrative James picks Beneil Dariush, stating that the line is wide and disrespectful at +240. He believes Dariush can defend takedowns and scramble well, and is the better striker. He notes that Tsarukyan's youth and tenacity could be a factor in a five-round fight, but still sees Dariush as the side. He would go heavy on Dariush if it were a three-round fight.

"I definitely think benil darush is wied I think that darus is going to be able to defend the takedowns early"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Tsarukyan has high-level wrestling and improving striking, and he is expected to control the fight with his grappling and striking advantage. However, Dariush is a live underdog with great scrambling and BJJ, making the fight closer than the odds suggest. Tsarukyan is predicted to win by decision over 3.5 rounds, but a small underdog shot on Dariush is also recommended due to value.

over 3.5 rounds, decision win predicted, half unit shot on Dariush mentioned
"prediction is suin but I am not touching that chalk darush is way more alive than plus 260 indicates"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Paul thinks Tsarukyan is the rightful favorite due to a sizable speed advantage and good enough grappling to avoid submissions. He notes the line is wide but doesn't see much value at -310. He mentions Tsarukyan's speed in striking and entrances/exits as the biggest difference. He is not lining up to bet it but picks Tsarukyan.

"I think arman's a rightful favorite not one that I'm lining up to uh to go bet this week but suian is the pick for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan, believing his youth, wrestling, and striking will be too much for Beneil Dariush. He notes Tsarukyan's reach advantage and ability to win the leg kick battle. He predicts Tsarukyan will break Dariush down and win by TKO in the fourth round.

TKO in fourth round
"I'm going Arman Tsarukyan... I think he can pick at Dariush, annoy him, frustrate him, hurt him to the body and legs, break him down and I think he beats him by TKO in the fourth round."
WIN vs Joaquim Silva
TKO (punches) R3 3:25 · UFC on ESPN: Vettori vs. Cannonier · Jun 17, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Arman Tsarukyan 0 80 of 115 69% 134 of 175 4 of 5 80% 0 0 9:01
Joaquim Silva 0 23 of 41 56% 77 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Arman Tsarukyan 0 12 of 13 92% 28 of 29 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:26
Joaquim Silva 0 2 of 3 66% 27 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Arman Tsarukyan 0 33 of 57 57% 39 of 63 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:47
Joaquim Silva 0 16 of 30 53% 41 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Arman Tsarukyan 0 35 of 45 77% 67 of 83 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:48
Joaquim Silva 0 5 of 8 62% 9 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Arman Tsarukyan 80 of 115 69% 64 of 95 13 of 17 3 of 3 32 of 64 7 of 8 41 of 43
Joaquim Silva 23 of 41 56% 11 of 27 9 of 11 3 of 3 11 of 25 10 of 13 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Arman Tsarukyan 12 of 13 92% 9 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 9
Joaquim Silva 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2
2 Arman Tsarukyan 33 of 57 57% 23 of 43 7 of 11 3 of 3 23 of 46 6 of 7 4 of 4
Joaquim Silva 16 of 30 53% 8 of 20 6 of 8 2 of 2 8 of 19 7 of 10 1 of 1
3 Arman Tsarukyan 35 of 45 77% 32 of 42 3 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 15 0 of 0 28 of 30
Joaquim Silva 5 of 8 62% 2 of 5 3 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 5 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Jun 11, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Angelo is extremely confident in Arman Tsarukyan, calling him a massive favorite. He expects Tsarukyan to dominate with relentless wrestling, avoiding Silva's submissions. Silva has knockout power but will be defending takedowns the entire time. Angelo says there is no reason to overcomplicate this pick.

"Armin is a minus 1100 favorite there is no reason to over complicate this armin's gonna dominate with the wrestling he's gonna avoid the submissions"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady picks Arman Tsarukyan to win by first-round knockout. He calls this an astronomical step down in competition for Tsarukyan, who has fought top-tier opponents like Islam Makhachev and Mateusz Gamrot. Brady believes Tsarukyan will get takedowns at will, as Silva's takedown defense and durability are poor. He expects a vicious finish, either by knockout on the feet or TKO via ground and pound, similar to Tsarukyan's win over Joel Alvarez. Brady questions why this fight was even made.

"I think saruki and not only wins this fight but wins it in uh vicious fashion and probably a first round finish."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Cody sees this as a massive step down for Tsarukyan, who has been fighting elite competition. He expects Tsarukyan to win easily, likely by TKO in the second round, as Tsarukyan has a traditional Russian grinding style that breaks down lesser opponents. He notes Silva is a banger with knockout power but poor takedown defense, and at 34, his skills aren't improving. Cody thinks Tsarukyan will take him down and finish him in the second round.

Tsarukyan wins in round 2 at +300; mentions prop hunting
"I would think in the second round he's not necessarily like I need to kill you in the first round as much as he's got that traditional Russian style where he's gonna grind on you and lean on you and …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Connor agrees with Zane, calling Tsarukyan a 'gimme matchup' for Silva. He highlights Tsarukyan's elite grappling and physicality, and notes that Silva's only path to victory is an early knockout. Connor is confident Tsarukyan will dominate with his wrestling and pressure.

"This is a gimme matchup, but to layup."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Daniel Levi picks Arman Tsarukyan to win by knockout in round one or two. He notes Tsarukyan's improved striking and power, and expects a dominant performance. He compares it to the Giagos fight where Tsarukyan finished quickly, rather than the Fiziev fight which was more competitive. He respects Silva but sees a clear mismatch.

knockout round 1, knockout round 2
"I like The Knockout round one for most of what I'm gonna put down on it and then some knockout round two"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Tsarukyan can dominate Silva anywhere and will finish him. He is a solid grappler with improving striking and cardio. Silva is a BJJ black belt but prefers striking and has been knocked out in recent fights. Tsarukyan should make an emphatic statement. The pick is Tsarukyan inside the distance rather than the heavy moneyline.

Tsarukyan inside the distance
"I'll be looking at that walk uh sarukian inside the distance line rather than taking the minus 1000... give me sarukin via KO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Paul agrees Tsarukyan is a justifiable massive favorite, but he doesn't see an edge in betting the moneyline at -1000. He prefers to chase a prop or just avoid the fight entirely. He notes that Tsarukyan is 26, improving, and has gone five rounds before, while Silva is a banger with nothing to lose but likely gets taken down and finished.

suggests chasing a prop or avoiding the fight; mentions Tsarukyan by second round TKO
"you definitely gotta chase a prop here or just don't like I mean I probably just want that this fight at all because that's just not how I roll"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan easily, calling it a straightforward matchup. He notes Silva has been KO'd by Ricky Glenn and Nazareno Malegarie, and hasn't had a first-round finish since 2014. He expects Tsarukyan to stay calm, out-strike Silva, and get a late TKO.

"I'm going to be going with Armand sarukian I reckon he wins this matchup pretty easily"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Zane sees this as a complete stylistic layup for Tsarukyan. He notes that Tsarukyan is one of the best wrestler-grapplers in the sport, while Silva is a dynamic but limited striker who struggles against physical pressure. Zane believes Tsarukyan will bully Silva on the feet and take him down at will, making Silva's only chance a flying knee in the first minute.

"It's a layup. Like it is a complete stylistic layup."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Dec 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Arman Tsarukyan 0 34 of 81 41% 50 of 105 7 of 21 33% 0 0 9:25
Damir Ismagulov 0 36 of 86 41% 51 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Arman Tsarukyan 0 9 of 23 39% 15 of 29 1 of 10 10% 0 0 3:04
Damir Ismagulov 0 13 of 26 50% 24 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
2 Arman Tsarukyan 0 12 of 27 44% 18 of 35 4 of 6 66% 0 0 3:24
Damir Ismagulov 0 11 of 28 39% 13 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Arman Tsarukyan 0 13 of 31 41% 17 of 41 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:57
Damir Ismagulov 0 12 of 32 37% 14 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Arman Tsarukyan 34 of 81 41% 14 of 57 12 of 15 8 of 9 31 of 76 2 of 4 1 of 1
Damir Ismagulov 36 of 86 41% 18 of 60 15 of 21 3 of 5 26 of 74 10 of 11 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Arman Tsarukyan 9 of 23 39% 2 of 14 3 of 5 4 of 4 9 of 22 0 of 1 0 of 0
Damir Ismagulov 13 of 26 50% 7 of 18 4 of 5 2 of 3 13 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Arman Tsarukyan 12 of 27 44% 7 of 21 3 of 3 2 of 3 9 of 23 2 of 3 1 of 1
Damir Ismagulov 11 of 28 39% 6 of 18 5 of 9 0 of 1 7 of 23 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Arman Tsarukyan 13 of 31 41% 5 of 22 6 of 7 2 of 2 13 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Damir Ismagulov 12 of 32 37% 5 of 24 6 of 7 1 of 1 6 of 26 6 of 6 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Angelo picks Arman Tsarukyan, his guy, hoping the loss to Gamrot helps him improve. He notes that Damir is not the wrestler Gamrot is, so he sees Arman getting takedowns and winning the scrambles. He acknowledges Arman faded in his last fight but this is a three-round fight, which favors him.

Plans to bet on Arman more takedowns (prop bet) because Damir won't take him down
"I'm gonna stick with my guy here I'm hoping that loss to gamrat just sort of helps moving him forward"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady picks Tsarukyan, citing his elite wrestling and power advantage. He notes Ismagulov has 90% takedown defense but hasn't faced a wrestler like Tsarukyan. He thinks Tsarukyan will mix in takedowns and win a competitive decision. He wants to see Ismagulov's weight cut but leans Tsarukyan.

Tsarukyan wins by decision
"I gotta go with saruki in here and I will take him to win by decision but I think it's going to be a pretty close one here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

Cody likes Ismagulov as an underdog because of his well-rounded skills, solid takedown defense, and durability. He thinks Ismagulov can stay on the outside, use his jab, and stifle Tsarukyan's takedowns to win a striking battle. He notes Tsarukyan is still green and was taken down by Gamrot, which raises questions.

plus 165 underdog
"at plus 165 I feel like you can get worse underdogs... I'm not gonna lie man this is a 14 fight card... 165 one of the better ones that I did like"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2022 (fight day)
Damir Ismagulov

Ismagulov is very talented and this should be a 50/50 fight. He didn't show his best in his last two fights due to long layoffs, but this is his second fight in six months, so he should be in better shape. He can be defensively responsible with his grappling and outstrike Tsarukyan on the feet. The line is too wide in favor of Tsarukyan.

1 unit at +159
"this fight should really be a 50 50 fight it should be minus 110 on both sides as Israel gulab is very talented"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Paul picks Tsarukyan, believing he is a top talent with all the skills. He thinks Tsarukyan will land takedowns and is super quick on the feet. He notes Tsarukyan is young and still developing, expecting to see the best version of him. He is not confident enough to bet but picks him.

"I'm gonna pick saruki and I think he will be able to uh land some takedowns here... I expect to see the best arm and Armin sarukian that we have seen to date"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan over Damir Ismagulov, noting the three-round fight favors Tsarukyan's cardio. He believes Tsarukyan's lead switch kick to the body will be effective against Ismagulov's high guard, and that Ismagulov doesn't have the offensive grappling of Mateusz Gamrot to threaten takedowns. He also thinks Ismagulov took damage in his last fight against Guram Kutateladze. He predicts Tsarukyan's higher fight IQ and youth (26) will lead to a win.

"I'm gonna go if I'm in saruki in here over damira's magulov"
LOSS vs Mateusz Gamrot
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 1 95 of 247 38% 110 of 264 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:39
Arman Tsarukyan 0 81 of 138 58% 108 of 166 6 of 21 28% 0 0 4:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 15 of 37 40% 19 of 41 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:46
Arman Tsarukyan 0 10 of 19 52% 11 of 20 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:24
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 19 of 64 29% 21 of 68 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Arman Tsarukyan 0 18 of 38 47% 21 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
3 Mateusz Gamrot 0 22 of 45 48% 23 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Arman Tsarukyan 0 20 of 33 60% 30 of 43 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:20
4 Mateusz Gamrot 1 16 of 47 34% 18 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Arman Tsarukyan 0 13 of 23 56% 18 of 29 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:41
5 Mateusz Gamrot 0 23 of 54 42% 29 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:29
Arman Tsarukyan 0 20 of 25 80% 28 of 33 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 95 of 247 38% 43 of 182 39 of 48 13 of 17 88 of 235 3 of 6 4 of 6
Arman Tsarukyan 81 of 138 58% 68 of 121 9 of 12 4 of 5 73 of 129 4 of 5 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 15 of 37 40% 3 of 21 7 of 9 5 of 7 14 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
Arman Tsarukyan 10 of 19 52% 6 of 13 2 of 4 2 of 2 9 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Mateusz Gamrot 19 of 64 29% 7 of 47 9 of 12 3 of 5 18 of 62 0 of 1 1 of 1
Arman Tsarukyan 18 of 38 47% 13 of 33 3 of 3 2 of 2 16 of 36 0 of 0 2 of 2
3 Mateusz Gamrot 22 of 45 48% 11 of 33 8 of 9 3 of 3 20 of 43 2 of 2 0 of 0
Arman Tsarukyan 20 of 33 60% 19 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 1 18 of 31 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Mateusz Gamrot 16 of 47 34% 9 of 38 7 of 9 0 of 0 15 of 45 0 of 1 1 of 1
Arman Tsarukyan 13 of 23 56% 12 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 0 13 of 22 0 of 1 0 of 0
5 Mateusz Gamrot 23 of 54 42% 13 of 43 8 of 9 2 of 2 21 of 49 0 of 1 2 of 4
Arman Tsarukyan 20 of 25 80% 18 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0 17 of 22 2 of 2 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Angelo picks Arman Tsarukyan but bets on Mateusz Gamrot via buying points. He notes both are mirror images as wrestlers with improving hands, but Tsarukyan has never been out-wrestled except by Islam Makhachev, while Gamrot has struggled with takedown efficiency in some fights. He expects a close decision and buys +5.5 points on Gamrot, believing Gamrot can steal rounds on scorecards.

bought +5.5 points on Mateusz Gamrot (buying points on scorecard)
"the pick's gonna be armin but the bet here is plus five and a half on gamron because i absolutely think he can steal some points on some judge's core cards"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady picks Arman Tsarukyan to win by decision. He believes Tsarukyan's wrestling will be the difference, getting takedowns and controlling Gamrot. He notes Tsarukyan's youth (25 vs 31), improved striking, and success against Islam Makhachev. He questions Gamrot's cardio in a five-round fight (Gamrot admitted doubts about cardio in a three-round fight). He expects a back-and-forth fight but Tsarukyan winning minutes with takedowns and top control. He says the line is wide but Tsarukyan is the pick.

"i like armin here um the line's wide it really is gameron is very good but i just feel like armin is going to be the one getting takedowns and just going to rinse to repeat"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Cody agrees with Paul, but thinks Gamrot is a live dog. He notes Gamrot's slow starts and potential cardio issues in a five-round fight. He believes Tsarukyan's speed and power will be too much, and he also likes Tsarukyan by decision.

Tsarukyan by decision +150 at DraftKings
"i'm gonna agree that i think sirikin wins the fight just three to one three to one is like supposed to be a walk in the park right he should be able to go out there and dominate gamron i …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Paul thinks Tsarukyan is the total package with elite striking and grappling, and he's only 24. He notes the price is a bit wide but Tsarukyan is a rightful favorite. He expects Tsarukyan to win, possibly by decision, and mentions Tsarukyan decision at +150 as a prop.

Tsarukyan by decision +150 at DraftKings
"I love saruka i think he's got the he's the total package he's like 24 years old still striking is on point grappling is is elites"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

The host picks Arman Tsarukyan, citing his consistent cardio and ability to improve as the fight goes on. He notes Gamrot slows down in later rounds, as seen against Diego Ferreira. He expects Tsarukyan to take over in rounds 3-5 and predicts a fourth-round TKO. He acknowledges Gamrot's explosiveness but believes Tsarukyan's overall game is superior.

fourth round TKO prediction
"i'm going to go with arm and saruki in here"
WIN vs Joel Alvarez
TKO (punches) R2 1:57 · UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · Feb 26, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joel Alvarez 0 36 of 53 67% 93 of 122 2 of 2 100% 0 0 6:08
Arman Tsarukyan 0 7 of 10 70% 27 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joel Alvarez 0 13 of 19 68% 50 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:22
Arman Tsarukyan 0 5 of 8 62% 25 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Joel Alvarez 0 23 of 34 67% 43 of 63 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:46
Arman Tsarukyan 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joel Alvarez 36 of 53 67% 31 of 48 3 of 3 2 of 2 4 of 9 0 of 0 32 of 44
Arman Tsarukyan 7 of 10 70% 5 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joel Alvarez 13 of 19 68% 10 of 16 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 7 0 of 0 9 of 12
Arman Tsarukyan 5 of 8 62% 4 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 4
2 Joel Alvarez 23 of 34 67% 21 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 23 of 32
Arman Tsarukyan 2 of 2 100% 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Arman Tsarukyan vs. Joel Alvarez

Round 1
It’s a pairing of four-fight winning streaks for these lightweight prospects, and Chris Tognoni will referee the bout. Tsarukyan sticks a jab early. Tsarukyan kicks Alvarez’s leg and is able to score a takedown with his opponent off balance. Tsarukyan is now inside the lanky Spaniard’s guard. Alvarez lands an elbow from his back. Tsarukyan remains heavy on top, and he’s working diligently to pass to half guard. Alvarez does a good job preventing the pass. Tsarukyan drops an elbow from above. Alvarez is active with his guard and lands a hammerfist from his back. Tsarukyan floats into a front headlock before finding himself in the full guard of his opponent. A slashing elbow lands for Tsarukyan, who then lands a short elbow to the face. It’s control time galore for the Russian standout, and another elbow cuts Alvarez wide open. Alvarez is just gushing blood in the waning seconds, and Tsarukyan is pouring it on. Another elbow lands before the horn. The fight could be in danger of being stopped between rounds, as Alvarez’s face is a crimson mask.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan

Round 2
Amazingly, Alvarez is allowed to continue for another round after a brief examination from the cageside doctor. Tsarukyan shoots immediately. Alvarez looks for a guillotine but his foe passes to side control. Tsarukyan briefly achieves a mounted crucifix but Alvarez frees his arm. From side control, Tsarukyan drops brual elbows and punches, and Alvarez is spewing blood again, his vision obviously obscured. Alvarez is on all fours, eating punches. The Spaniard attempts to stand, and Tsarukyan ragdolls him back down near the fence. More punches from Tsarukyan, and Tognoni urges Alvarez to fight back.
From back mount, Tsarukyan controls the wrists and unloads with more left hands. Tognoni has finally seen enough and mercifully calls off the fight.

The Official Result
Arman Tsarukyan def. Joel Alvarez via TKO (Punches) R2 1:57
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

Big Brady picks Joel Alvarez to win inside the distance. He notes Alvarez has a massive eight-inch height and 4.5-inch reach advantage, and is dangerous everywhere: striking and submissions. He points out that Tsarukyan's wrestling could play into Alvarez's game, as Alvarez has a 0% takedown defense but is very dangerous off his back with multiple submission wins. Brady was initially surprised that money was coming in on Alvarez but now sees it as justified. He believes Alvarez can finish by knockout or submission.

Alvarez to win inside the distance
"I'll take alvarez to you know whether it's a knockout on the feet sorkin has been knocked out before or whether it is a submission off his back you know maybe he can get a reversal get on top but …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Cody picks Tsarukyan by decision, citing his superior speed, wrestling, and cardio. He notes Alvarez's submission threats but believes Tsarukyan's head placement and takedown defense will keep him safe. Cody mentions Tsarukyan's camp in Russia as a slight concern but still sees him winning via volume and takedowns.

Tsarukyan by decision
"my pick is saruki and by decision i think he does mind his p's and q's"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Daniel Levi picks Arman Tsarukyan to win by decision. He emphasizes Tsarukyan's relentless takedown game and ability to neutralize submissions. Levi notes Alvarez is dangerous with submissions off his back and has knockout power, but believes Tsarukyan will avoid standing and grind out a win. He disagrees with the dog-or-pass label and expects Tsarukyan to cover the spread.

"i think armin is going to come out here smart and rinse and repeat on the takedowns eventually just neutralize the submission attempts and win this decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

The host hesitantly picks Alvarez as an underdog, citing his size, confidence, and finishing streak. He believes Alvarez can keep the fight standing and land big strikes, potentially drawing a desperation takedown from Tsarukyan that could lead to a guillotine. He acknowledges Tsarukyan is a top prospect but thinks the odds are too wide and Alvarez deserves more respect. He predicts a second-round TKO.

"i'm actually going to go out on the limb here and take uh joel alvarez to get the dub in this spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Paul agrees with Tsarukyan by decision, emphasizing his wrestling and striking advantage. He notes Alvarez's improved striking but trusts Tsarukyan's ability to mix takedowns and avoid submissions. Paul suggests waiting for a better price on Tsarukyan as the line may move.

Tsarukyan by decision
"i would go with circuit my decision as well use the wrestling to either put them down when you want or just yeah neutralizing"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

The MMA Guru picks Joel Alvarez to win, calling it a 51-49 lean. He acknowledges Arman Tsarukyan's skills but believes Alvarez's size, reach, and power are decisive factors. He notes that Alvarez is much bigger and may have a weight advantage, and that his immediate damaging shots (elbows, guillotines) give him more paths to victory. The Guru expects Tsarukyan to win by decision if he wins, while Alvarez can finish early by TKO or submission. He also mentions Alvarez's chin held up against Thiago Moises.

first round TKO or guillotine submission; weight advantage; Alvarez by finish
"i'm going to go with joel alvarez here um dangerous with elbows as well when they're covering up against the cage"
TKO (punches) R1 2:09 · UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · Sep 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Arman Tsarukyan 1 22 of 31 70% 27 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
Christos Giagos 0 1 of 6 16% 4 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Arman Tsarukyan 1 22 of 31 70% 27 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
Christos Giagos 0 1 of 6 16% 4 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Arman Tsarukyan 22 of 31 70% 21 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 1 4 of 10 0 of 0 18 of 21
Christos Giagos 1 of 6 16% 0 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Arman Tsarukyan 22 of 31 70% 21 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 1 4 of 10 0 of 0 18 of 21
Christos Giagos 1 of 6 16% 0 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Angelo is very confident in Arman Tsarukyan, calling him the biggest favorite on the card. He praises Arman's wrestling, striking, and athleticism, noting he improves between fights. He thinks Christos Giagos is tough but will be outmatched everywhere. He expects a one-sided beating and suggests the under on rounds might be worth a bet for plus money.

Under 2.5 rounds (suggested for plus money)
"armin is obviously the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady is very confident in Arman Tsarukyan, citing his relentless wrestling and high pace. He notes Giagos has poor takedown defense and cardio, and has been finished five times. He predicts Tsarukyan will get a late finish, specifically a third-round submission, as Giagos slows down.

third round submission
"i think saruki and does get a finish here i think is late in the fight after um geos definitely does slow down definitely does gas out and i'll take armas rookie to win by third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Cody is very confident in Tsarukyan, highlighting his youth, wrestling, and experience against tough competition. He believes Giagos' only path is wrestling, but Tsarukyan is a superior wrestler and will not be taken down. Cody predicts a late finish as Giagos gasses.

Tsarukyan inside distance +150, Tsarukyan round 3 TKO
"i got saruki and then i got a feeling that this thing ends up being in sarukian later finish"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Daniel Levi picks Arman Tsarukyan to win. He says Giagos might make it competitive for five minutes before gassing, then Tsarukyan will take over with takedowns. He questions whether -800 is worth it for a decision win but is sure Tsarukyan wins. He mentions Tsarukyan's only scored over 100 fantasy points once (against Matt Frevola) but sees potential for a breakthrough.

"give me armand surukian not sure if it's a finisher or a decision but i am sure about him winning this fight so give me arm and surrounding for the dub"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Preet is very confident Tsarukyan will win and finish Giagos. He notes Tsarukyan's striking is improving and he owns Giagos everywhere. Giagos has poor cardio and will slow down, allowing Tsarukyan to get his first UFC finish. He likes Tsarukyan inside the distance at +170 and round 2-3 props.

Arman Tsarukyan inside the distance +170, Tsarukyan round 2 +550, Tsarukyan round 3 +975
"I think this is the spot for saurikan to go out there and get his first ever ufc finish so uh sarukin inside the distance again I think it could come submission or ko"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Paul picks Tsarukyan as a parlay piece, noting that Giagos has suspect cardio and was outstruck by Sean Soriano before getting a submission. He believes Tsarukyan's wrestling and durability will be too much. Paul mentions he has Tsarukyan in a three-leg parlay.

"sarookian's the pick he's a parlay piece"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Sep 12, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan by submission in the second round, calling it a mismatch. He highlights Tsarukyan's well-rounded skills, great grappling, and cardio. He notes Giagos is not a prolific finisher and predicts Tsarukyan will easily get takedowns and finish with a rear-naked choke.

submission in round 2
"armand saruki and way more well-rounded"
Damir Ismagulov - Fight History
LOSS vs Grant Dawson
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Jul 01, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Grant Dawson 0 13 of 28 46% 35 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:08
Damir Ismagulov 0 30 of 57 52% 84 of 128 3 of 5 60% 1 0 12:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Grant Dawson 0 2 of 6 33% 4 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Damir Ismagulov 0 23 of 35 65% 44 of 57 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:55
2 Grant Dawson 0 10 of 18 55% 14 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Damir Ismagulov 0 5 of 18 27% 22 of 38 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:57
3 Grant Dawson 0 1 of 4 25% 17 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:03
Damir Ismagulov 0 2 of 4 50% 18 of 33 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Grant Dawson 13 of 28 46% 6 of 19 6 of 8 1 of 1 13 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Damir Ismagulov 30 of 57 52% 28 of 48 1 of 8 1 of 1 9 of 35 1 of 1 20 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Grant Dawson 2 of 6 33% 1 of 3 1 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Damir Ismagulov 23 of 35 65% 21 of 30 1 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 15 1 of 1 18 of 19
2 Grant Dawson 10 of 18 55% 5 of 13 5 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Damir Ismagulov 5 of 18 27% 5 of 14 0 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 16 0 of 0 2 of 2
3 Grant Dawson 1 of 4 25% 0 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Damir Ismagulov 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Grant Dawson vs. Damir Ismagulov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ismagulov (-115), Dawson (-105)

Round 1
We have reached the co-main attraction, which takes place at 155 pounds between fringe contenders and exceptional grapplers Ismagulov (24-2, 5-1 UFC) and Dawson (19-1-1, 7-0-1 UFC). The former has gone the distance in six of his last seven, while Dawson has prevailed in six of his last seven – Ismagulov can say the same there as well. The two lightweights show ample respect as they shake hands in front of referee Herb Dean, and Ismagulov is the one pressure out of the gate. Dawson flings a left hand and a kick to make Ismagulov think twice, and he dives low for a single that is easily stuffed. Dawson wings a left hook that misses the mark, and Ismagulov skates to the side from a jab and clips Dawson with a right hand. Dawson throws right back with a left hook, and he digs a right hand to the body. Dawson snatches up the Russian’s leg and secures the single, and he succeeds in planting Ismagulov on his back. Dawson, in half guard, drops down a single left hand. Ismagulov turns over and gives up his back as he looks to escape, and Dawson follows him and wraps up a rear-naked choke. The arms cannot find the neck or even the chin, and Ismagulov fights the grip as he finds himself trapped in a body triangle. Ismagulov is warned for grabbing the inside of Dawson’s gloves to fight the hands, and Dawson stretches him out with the body triangle. Ismagulov tries to turn through it, and he sits up only to get pulled back down and his mouth covered. Dawson frustrates him with a combination of the body lock, mouth covering and hand-fighting, and Ismagulov turns to the side to shake off the leglock around his midsection. Dawson readjusts his leg grip on the body, and Ismagulov sways from side to side. Dawson locks down on a rear-naked choke with one of Ismagulov’s arms between his head and the choke grip, and Ismagulov fights out of it and turns around to his knees. Dawson stays tightly pressed to him, following him every step of the way and opening up with right hands when he has Ismagulov stuck on his side. Ismagulov turns frantically, and Dawson keeps a very high hook around the chest even as Ismagulov bucks him like a bronco. Ismagulov turns to his back again, and he rides out the round without being tapped.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Dawson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Dawson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Dawson

Round 2
The lightweights clap hands, and as Ismagulov is coming out of his corner, he is wincing and closing his right eye. Both fighters swing haymakers at the other, and Ismagulov catches Dawson with a left and a right. Dawson lifts up a knee, but Ismagulov does not walk into it. Instead, Ismagulov snaps the head back with a jab, and a straight right hand sends Dawson backpedaling. Dawson drops down, grabs hold of both of Ismagulov’s legs, picks him up like a 155-pound sack of potatoes and gingerly deposits him to the floor. The two end in a very unusual situation, as Ismagulov and Dawson were stuck in an odd north-south position for a moment. Dawson recovers faster to partially wind up on top, but Ismagulov also has his own hands clasped. Dawson slides around to get on top, and he snags Ismagulov’s back to get both hooks in. Dawson recovers his body triangle, and he racks up more back control time as he occasionally softens Ismagulov up with fists upside the head. Ismagulov answers with elbows to the thigh, and he fights a choke setup off but is still stuck in the body triangle. Dawson snakes an arm over the chin but cannot sneak it under it, and he settles for making Ismagulov’s life miserable. The round ends with Dawson hold on from behind, and he helps Ismagulov back to his feet as they return to their corners.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dawson

Round 3
The fighters hug it out to start off the last round, and Ismagulov is urgent to push the action knowing he is likely way down on the scorecards. Dawson slides to the side and pegs Ismagulov with a left hand, and Dawson grabs his foe from behind and elevates him. “KGD” tosses Ismagulov to the ground, and the body triangle is snatched up immediately as he secures back control. Dawson grabs the arm of Ismagulov and torques it back for something more frequently seen in the pro wrestling ring, like a full nelson or a reverse can opener. Ismagulov grits it out, as this is nothing more than an irritation to him, but Dawson is squeezing him and completely nullifying him. Dawson loops punches over the guard that are light and frustrating, and Dean asks for Dawson to work in this back control position. The hand-fighting from Ismagulov stop Dawson from a choke getting anywhere near close, and Dawson tries as hard as he can to even get one arm around the head of his adversary. Dawson switches his body lock from leg to leg as Ismagulov leans to one side or the other, and Ismagulov has no answers. Dawson considers an arm-in rear-naked choke again, and Ismagulov punches from behind to signal to Dawson there is nothing to it. With five seconds to go, Ismagulov explodes to turn himself around, but the fight ends before he can do anything with it. Barring something extremely bizarre, this should be a clean sweep for Dawson. Man, this kid is good.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (30-26 Dawson)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (30-26 Dawson)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (30-26 Dawson)

The Official Result
Grant Dawson def. Damir Ismagulov via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

Angelo picks Damir Ismagulov, citing his well-rounded skills, cardio, and ability to adjust. He believes Damir's striking is light years ahead of Grant Dawson's, and while Dawson is a good wrestler, he's not Arman Tsarukyan. He expects a razor-thin decision but thinks Damir gets it done. He avoids betting due to Damir's lack of finishing ability.

"damir's going to be the pick I think he can defend some of the takedowns early I think the gap on the feet is just light years"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Grant Dawson

Big Brady picks Grant Dawson to win by decision, but is cautious. He notes Ismagulov has been dealing with injuries and looked off in his last fight, and has announced this is his retirement fight. Dawson has improved at American Top Team, with better striking and cardio. Brady thinks Dawson's wrestling and control will be key, and he can win a close decision, though he warns against being too confident either way.

"I'm gonna take Dawson here I I A lot of people are very confident one way or another I think it's hard"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Grant Dawson

Cody leans Dawson because of his wrestling and recent improvements, especially taking down Olympic wrestler Mark Madsen twice. He notes Ismagulov's takedown defense was exposed by Arman Tsarukyan (7 takedowns) and that Ismagulov fights to his opponent's level with low volume. Cody also mentions Dawson's cardio has improved, as shown by two straight third-round finishes. He considers it a close fight likely to go to decision.

Dawson round 3 at 12-1
"I'm leaning towards Dawson but yeah both guys could win the fight right it could be a close fight it could be a split decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 29, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

Daniel picks Ismagulov but with low confidence, hinging on which version shows up after health issues and a brief retirement. He notes Ismagulov's striking is far superior to Dawson's, and if he can stuff takedowns (despite being taken down 7 times by Tsarukyan), he should win easily. However, he is concerned about Ismagulov's health and motivation, and reserves the right to change his pick after weigh-ins. He sees Dawson as a one-dimensional grappler with poor striking, but acknowledges his relentless wrestling and guillotine threat.

"right now free lands imma go is magulov I reserve the right to change that pick"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

James leans towards Ismagulov, believing he should be about a 60% favorite. He thinks Ismagulov's striking is cleaner and that he can defend takedowns well, as he did against Arman Tsarukyan early. He notes Dawson's cardio issues and that Ismagulov's cardio is strong, but he hasn't finished his tape study yet. He also mentions the retirement concern but says if Ismagulov is still the same fighter, he wins.

"I definitely favor is mov I think is mov should be about 60% right now right now but I need to do tape so that's why I don't want to speak too much in depth."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Grant Dawson

Paul agrees with Cody, citing Dawson's move to American Top Team and his improved cardio and wrestling. He notes Ismagulov's retirement announcement and return, suggesting lack of motivation. Paul thinks Dawson's pressure and takedowns will be the difference, but acknowledges Ismagulov's cardio and durability.

"I think Dawson's smart enough to realize I got to take this guy down so I'm leaning towards Dawson"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

The Guru picks Damir Ismagulov, citing Grant Dawson's struggle against Ricky Glenn as a huge red flag. He notes Ismagulov's ability to get back up and scrap, and predicts Dawson's takedowns will fail in the second round, leading to Ismagulov landing a straight right hand for a KO. He also criticizes Dawson's chin and teep kicks.

KO by straight right hand in second round
"I'm picking damira's magulov I don't think Grant Dawson has the level of wrestling"
LOSS vs Arman Tsarukyan
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Dec 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Arman Tsarukyan 0 34 of 81 41% 50 of 105 7 of 21 33% 0 0 9:25
Damir Ismagulov 0 36 of 86 41% 51 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Arman Tsarukyan 0 9 of 23 39% 15 of 29 1 of 10 10% 0 0 3:04
Damir Ismagulov 0 13 of 26 50% 24 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
2 Arman Tsarukyan 0 12 of 27 44% 18 of 35 4 of 6 66% 0 0 3:24
Damir Ismagulov 0 11 of 28 39% 13 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Arman Tsarukyan 0 13 of 31 41% 17 of 41 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:57
Damir Ismagulov 0 12 of 32 37% 14 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Arman Tsarukyan 34 of 81 41% 14 of 57 12 of 15 8 of 9 31 of 76 2 of 4 1 of 1
Damir Ismagulov 36 of 86 41% 18 of 60 15 of 21 3 of 5 26 of 74 10 of 11 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Arman Tsarukyan 9 of 23 39% 2 of 14 3 of 5 4 of 4 9 of 22 0 of 1 0 of 0
Damir Ismagulov 13 of 26 50% 7 of 18 4 of 5 2 of 3 13 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Arman Tsarukyan 12 of 27 44% 7 of 21 3 of 3 2 of 3 9 of 23 2 of 3 1 of 1
Damir Ismagulov 11 of 28 39% 6 of 18 5 of 9 0 of 1 7 of 23 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Arman Tsarukyan 13 of 31 41% 5 of 22 6 of 7 2 of 2 13 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Damir Ismagulov 12 of 32 37% 5 of 24 6 of 7 1 of 1 6 of 26 6 of 6 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Angelo picks Arman Tsarukyan, his guy, hoping the loss to Gamrot helps him improve. He notes that Damir is not the wrestler Gamrot is, so he sees Arman getting takedowns and winning the scrambles. He acknowledges Arman faded in his last fight but this is a three-round fight, which favors him.

Plans to bet on Arman more takedowns (prop bet) because Damir won't take him down
"I'm gonna stick with my guy here I'm hoping that loss to gamrat just sort of helps moving him forward"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady picks Tsarukyan, citing his elite wrestling and power advantage. He notes Ismagulov has 90% takedown defense but hasn't faced a wrestler like Tsarukyan. He thinks Tsarukyan will mix in takedowns and win a competitive decision. He wants to see Ismagulov's weight cut but leans Tsarukyan.

Tsarukyan wins by decision
"I gotta go with saruki in here and I will take him to win by decision but I think it's going to be a pretty close one here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

Cody likes Ismagulov as an underdog because of his well-rounded skills, solid takedown defense, and durability. He thinks Ismagulov can stay on the outside, use his jab, and stifle Tsarukyan's takedowns to win a striking battle. He notes Tsarukyan is still green and was taken down by Gamrot, which raises questions.

plus 165 underdog
"at plus 165 I feel like you can get worse underdogs... I'm not gonna lie man this is a 14 fight card... 165 one of the better ones that I did like"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2022 (fight day)
Damir Ismagulov

Ismagulov is very talented and this should be a 50/50 fight. He didn't show his best in his last two fights due to long layoffs, but this is his second fight in six months, so he should be in better shape. He can be defensively responsible with his grappling and outstrike Tsarukyan on the feet. The line is too wide in favor of Tsarukyan.

1 unit at +159
"this fight should really be a 50 50 fight it should be minus 110 on both sides as Israel gulab is very talented"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Paul picks Tsarukyan, believing he is a top talent with all the skills. He thinks Tsarukyan will land takedowns and is super quick on the feet. He notes Tsarukyan is young and still developing, expecting to see the best version of him. He is not confident enough to bet but picks him.

"I'm gonna pick saruki and I think he will be able to uh land some takedowns here... I expect to see the best arm and Armin sarukian that we have seen to date"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan over Damir Ismagulov, noting the three-round fight favors Tsarukyan's cardio. He believes Tsarukyan's lead switch kick to the body will be effective against Ismagulov's high guard, and that Ismagulov doesn't have the offensive grappling of Mateusz Gamrot to threaten takedowns. He also thinks Ismagulov took damage in his last fight against Guram Kutateladze. He predicts Tsarukyan's higher fight IQ and youth (26) will lead to a win.

"I'm gonna go if I'm in saruki in here over damira's magulov"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Emmett · Jun 18, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damir Ismagulov 0 79 of 192 41% 83 of 197 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:46
Guram Kutateladze 0 78 of 187 41% 80 of 190 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damir Ismagulov 0 21 of 57 36% 23 of 60 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:15
Guram Kutateladze 0 26 of 63 41% 27 of 65 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:17
2 Damir Ismagulov 0 30 of 65 46% 32 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Guram Kutateladze 0 23 of 58 39% 23 of 58 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:02
3 Damir Ismagulov 0 28 of 70 40% 28 of 70 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:20
Guram Kutateladze 0 29 of 66 43% 30 of 67 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damir Ismagulov 79 of 192 41% 63 of 173 14 of 17 2 of 2 76 of 184 3 of 8 0 of 0
Guram Kutateladze 78 of 187 41% 29 of 129 28 of 33 21 of 25 64 of 170 13 of 16 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damir Ismagulov 21 of 57 36% 17 of 52 3 of 4 1 of 1 19 of 55 2 of 2 0 of 0
Guram Kutateladze 26 of 63 41% 13 of 44 8 of 11 5 of 8 20 of 55 6 of 8 0 of 0
2 Damir Ismagulov 30 of 65 46% 22 of 55 8 of 10 0 of 0 30 of 63 0 of 2 0 of 0
Guram Kutateladze 23 of 58 39% 7 of 40 10 of 11 6 of 7 20 of 54 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Damir Ismagulov 28 of 70 40% 24 of 66 3 of 3 1 of 1 27 of 66 1 of 4 0 of 0
Guram Kutateladze 29 of 66 43% 9 of 45 10 of 11 10 of 10 24 of 61 4 of 4 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Guram Kutateladze

Angelo picks Guram Kutateladze, citing his powerful striking, kicks, and submission threats. He notes that even when taken down, Kutateladze is active on the ground and can work back up. He believes Kutateladze will frustrate Ismagulov both on feet and ground. He suggests betting on Kutateladze moneyline or safety net bets like 'wins inside distance decision no action' or plus 3.5 rounds.

moneyline or wins inside distance decision no action or plus 3.5 round bet (available at BetOnline)
"i like garam to frustrate dimir both on his feet and on the ground and i like him to take another underdog win over a solid wrestler"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

Big Brady picks Damir Ismagulov to win by decision, contingent on a good weight cut. He notes Ismagulov has excellent fight IQ, volume, and striking defense, while Kutateladze is powerful but low volume. He expects Ismagulov to be the minute winner on the feet and can mix in takedowns. He expresses concern about Ismagulov's weight cut and past eye issue.

decision
"I think damiri magulov wins a decision here as long as the weight cut goes good so dimir damir by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

Cody picks Ismagulov, citing his technical striking, excellent chin, and wrestling defense. He notes Kutateladze's cardio issues and two-year layoff, and believes Ismagulov will outpoint him over three rounds. He suggests Ismagulov by decision as a prop.

Damir Ismagulov by decision
"i think demir is able to get the job done dimir is also not super active but in the time away he's fought well"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

Daniel Levi is confident in Damir Ismagulov, praising his elite striking defense (1.9 strikes absorbed per minute), 100% takedown defense, and sharp boxing. He believes Ismagulov is a potential top-five talent and will outpoint Guram Kutateladze, who is tough but less polished. Levi notes Kutateladze's kicking game is dangerous, but thinks Ismagulov's fight IQ and experience will carry him to a unanimous decision. He is considering a bet on Ismagulov.

considering a bet on Ismagulov; expects unanimous decision
"i'm going dimir ismagullah via unanimous decision here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Guram Kutateladze

Paul picks Kutateladze as a dog, noting his training with Khamzat Chimaev and his power. He thinks Kutateladze can walk through Ismagulov's shots and land heavier strikes. He grabbed the line at +150 and believes the volume difference will be close, giving the edge to the Georgian.

"i grabbed some plus 150 um yesterday yeah because i kind of saw the line moving"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Jun 13, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Guram Kutateladze

The MMA Guru picks Guram Kutateladze, calling it risky. He notes Kutateladze is younger and more explosive, with good body kicks and skills off his back. He believes Damir Ismagulov has looked worse since his return, struggling against Rafael Alves. He thinks Kutateladze has a higher chance of a finish and will push the pace in later rounds, though he acknowledges Ismagulov is a good underdog.

"i'm going with garam... another risky one though another real risky one... i'm going to side with garam cutter to let's younger and on short notice"
WIN vs Rafael Alves
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · May 22, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damir Ismagulov 1 30 of 63 47% 36 of 69 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:16
Rafael Alves 0 56 of 126 44% 141 of 220 2 of 3 66% 0 0 7:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damir Ismagulov 1 2 of 7 28% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:02
Rafael Alves 0 17 of 23 73% 68 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:46
2 Damir Ismagulov 0 12 of 26 46% 12 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rafael Alves 0 24 of 66 36% 50 of 94 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:10
3 Damir Ismagulov 0 16 of 30 53% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Rafael Alves 0 15 of 37 40% 23 of 45 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damir Ismagulov 30 of 63 47% 20 of 50 6 of 7 4 of 6 28 of 59 2 of 2 0 of 2
Rafael Alves 56 of 126 44% 30 of 91 16 of 24 10 of 11 37 of 104 0 of 0 19 of 22
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damir Ismagulov 2 of 7 28% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 2
Rafael Alves 17 of 23 73% 4 of 9 7 of 8 6 of 6 0 of 3 0 of 0 17 of 20
2 Damir Ismagulov 12 of 26 46% 7 of 21 2 of 2 3 of 3 12 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael Alves 24 of 66 36% 14 of 49 6 of 12 4 of 5 23 of 65 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Damir Ismagulov 16 of 30 53% 11 of 23 4 of 5 1 of 2 14 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0
Rafael Alves 15 of 37 40% 12 of 33 3 of 4 0 of 0 14 of 36 0 of 0 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 18, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

Big Brady confidently picks Ismagulov, calling him two levels above Alves stylistically. He highlights Ismagulov's 100% takedown defense, phenomenal striking defense (69%), and Alves' poor cardio and chin. He expects a knockout finish, noting Alves has been knocked out three times and slows after the first round. He acknowledges the layoff as the only concern.

Ismagulov by knockout
"i'm going to take is mcglove to win by knockout i think he gets his first finish in the fc here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

Cody Saftic picks Damir Ismagulov, praising his technical boxing, takedown defense, and unflappable style. He notes that Ismagulov has beaten tough opponents like Joel Alvarez and Thiago Moises, and that Alves has struggled with weight cuts and has a journeyman record. Saftic believes Ismagulov will win by decision, controlling the fight with his jab and staying out of danger. He suggests a parlay with the over in the Spencer fight.

Ismagulov by decision, parlay with over 2.5 in Spencer/Dumont
"i got dimir ishmagulov i got him by decision i think uh yeah and you mentioned he's maybe a dull fighter maybe he's not made the most appealing or fan friendly style but like as far as wager friendly as …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 20, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

Daniel Levi picks Damir Ismagulov, praising his smooth, well-rounded striking and discipline. He respects Rafael Alves but notes that Alves missed weight due to personal tragedy and may not be fully focused. He predicts Ismagulov will cruise to a 30-27 decision, though he acknowledges the price is steep and there's no betting value.

30-27 decision
"i see is my gulab cruising to a nice 30-27 decision here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

Matt picks Damir Ismagulov to win by decision, despite a two-year layoff. He praises Ismagulov's technical striking, combination punching, and takedown defense. He notes Alves has cardio issues and a history of missing weight, which could worsen his gas tank. He expects Ismagulov to keep the fight standing and outpoint Alves over three rounds. He also considers a third-round finish prop at +800 due to Alves' potential fade, but prefers the decision line at -125.

Damir Ismagulov by decision (-125), Damir Ismagulov round 3 (+800)
"i think demiro's my goal goes out there keeps his fight on the feet and absolutely outstrike alves over 15 minutes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

Paul Shaughnessy picks Ismagulov, noting that he looks like a top-10 talent and that Alves is moving up in weight after missing weight badly. He believes Ismagulov's jab and takedown defense will be too much, and that Alves will struggle to get the fight to the ground. He suggests passing on the moneyline due to the price, but likes Ismagulov by decision or in a parlay.

Ismagulov by decision, parlay
"damir is the pick but i'm hearing i want to hear what you have to say maybe we can find a prop to play here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 22, 2021 (fight day)
Damir Ismagulov

The MMA Guru predicts Damir Ismagulov will win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Rafael Alves to win the first round with early takedowns and big moments, but Ismagulov will establish his jab and technical stand-up in rounds two and three, securing takedowns late in those rounds to win on the scorecards.

"i'm calling a 29-28 unanimous decision for damiris magulov losing the first round in a crazy back and forth moment and then winning the second and third in a more controlled environment"
WIN vs Thiago Moises
Decision (unanimous) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zhang · Aug 31, 2019
WIN vs Joel Alvarez
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Błachowicz vs. Santos · Feb 23, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damir Ismagulov 0 64 of 150 42% 64 of 150 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joel Alvarez 0 38 of 127 29% 38 of 127 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damir Ismagulov 0 25 of 58 43% 25 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joel Alvarez 0 16 of 54 29% 16 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Damir Ismagulov 0 25 of 57 43% 25 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joel Alvarez 0 11 of 37 29% 11 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Damir Ismagulov 0 14 of 35 40% 14 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joel Alvarez 0 11 of 36 30% 11 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damir Ismagulov 64 of 150 42% 25 of 85 30 of 51 9 of 14 64 of 150 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joel Alvarez 38 of 127 29% 26 of 107 5 of 11 7 of 9 37 of 126 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damir Ismagulov 25 of 58 43% 8 of 28 12 of 23 5 of 7 25 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joel Alvarez 16 of 54 29% 13 of 48 0 of 3 3 of 3 16 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Damir Ismagulov 25 of 57 43% 9 of 33 13 of 18 3 of 6 25 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joel Alvarez 11 of 37 29% 7 of 29 2 of 4 2 of 4 11 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Damir Ismagulov 14 of 35 40% 8 of 24 5 of 10 1 of 1 14 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joel Alvarez 11 of 36 30% 6 of 30 3 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Damir Ismagulov vs. Joel Alvarez

Round 1
First up is a lightweight bout between Damir Ismagulov and Joel Alvarez. The referee for the first bout of the night is Jakub Muller. Ismagulov leads with a jab to the body then lands a chopping low kick. Another nice jab to the body with Ismagulov and then he nearly lands a right hook. Big straight right lands by Ismagulov to the chin of Alvarez. Another jab by Ismagulov, and then another low kick. Another big straight right hand lands on the chin of Alvarez, who is a stationary target at the moment. Right cross to the body by Ismagulov. Impressive body work by him so far. Ismagulov flails on a spinning back kick. Finally Alvarez lands a strike, a low kick. Another jab to the body by Ismagulov and a counter straight right. Low kick by Ismagulov. Alvarez lands a jab. Ismagulov lands a straight right and then nearly takes off Alvarez’ head with a wild left hook. Big uppercut by Ismagulov lands. Another low kick and then a straight right. Alvarez lands a knee to the body and then a low kick of his own. Ismagulov with another straight right. Jab to the body by Ismagulov and he lands a big left hook. Another jab by Ismagulov. He just misses landing a front kick. Another straight right by Ismagulov. Alvarez returns with a low kick. Jab to the body by Ismagulov. He just misses another right straight and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Adam Martin scores the round: 10-9 Ismagulov
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Ismagulov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ismagulov

Round 2
Round two begins. Ismagulov just misses landing a big straight right as Alvarez just moves his head away. Another jab and straight right combo by Ismagulov. Spinning back kick to the body by Ismagulov just grazes Alvarez. Low kick by Ismagulov and Alvarez checks it. Jab to the body by Ismagulov. He connects on a huge overhand right to the chin but somehow Alvarez doesn’t get rocked from it. Jab to the body by Ismagulov. Jab to the head this time by Ismagulov. He just misses landing another overhand right. Another jab by Ismagulov and then a brutal left body kick. He just misses landing a right cross. Low kick lands by Alvarez but Ismagulov catches it and then lets Alvarez go. Another overhand right by Ismagulov. Another jab by Ismagulov, a low kick returned by Alvarez, and the round is over. This fight has been a blowout through two rounds.

Sherdog Scores
Adam Martin scores the round: 10-9 Ismagulov
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Ismagulov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ismagulov

Round 3
Round three begins and they touch gloves. Ismagulov continues to lead off the jab. He misses landing a right uppercut. A body kick lands by Ismagulov but Alvarez partially blocks it with his forearms. Ismagulov again misses an overhand right. Alvarez lands a nice body kick of his own. Ismagulov lands a straight right and then nearly lands a left hook. Alvarez lands a front kick to the body. Ismagulov catches the kick and then nearly lands another straight right. Ismagulov lands a kick to the body. Another overhand right by Ismagulov. Alvarez misses a spinning wheel kick. Alvarez lands a kick to the body that is caught by Ismagulov, who counters with a straight right. There’s one minute left in the fight now and Alvarez needs a stoppage. Alvarez lands a nasty low kick but once again it’s caught by Ismagulov. Alvarez lands a jab. Ismagulov with an overhand right. Alvarez lands a front kick to the body. Ismagulov just misses landing another overhand right. Alvarez misses landing a straight right of his own and the fight is over.

Sherdog Scores
Adam Martin scores the round: 10-9 Ismagulov (30-27 Ismagulov)
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Ismagulov (30-27 Ismagulov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ismagulov (30-27 Ismagulov)

The Official Result
Damir Ismagulov def. Joel Alvarez via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
WIN vs Alex Gorgees
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · Dec 02, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damir Ismagulov 0 10 of 31 32% 22 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Gorgees 0 34 of 55 61% 103 of 137 5 of 11 45% 0 0 9:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damir Ismagulov 0 4 of 14 28% 9 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Gorgees 0 10 of 19 52% 22 of 33 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:37
2 Damir Ismagulov 0 1 of 10 10% 3 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Gorgees 0 12 of 20 60% 51 of 62 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:42
3 Damir Ismagulov 0 5 of 7 71% 10 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Gorgees 0 12 of 16 75% 30 of 42 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damir Ismagulov 10 of 31 32% 5 of 21 3 of 5 2 of 5 5 of 26 5 of 5 0 of 0
Alex Gorgees 34 of 55 61% 22 of 38 9 of 13 3 of 4 20 of 32 3 of 3 11 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damir Ismagulov 4 of 14 28% 2 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 3 3 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
Alex Gorgees 10 of 19 52% 5 of 10 3 of 6 2 of 3 8 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 2
2 Damir Ismagulov 1 of 10 10% 0 of 7 1 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Gorgees 12 of 20 60% 7 of 14 4 of 5 1 of 1 5 of 7 0 of 0 7 of 13
3 Damir Ismagulov 5 of 7 71% 3 of 4 1 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 3 4 of 4 0 of 0
Alex Gorgees 12 of 16 75% 10 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 9 2 of 2 3 of 5
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Angelo picks Arman Tsarukyan, his guy, hoping the loss to Gamrot helps him improve. He notes that Damir is not the wrestler Gamrot is, so he sees Arman getting takedowns and winning the scrambles. He acknowledges Arman faded in his last fight but this is a three-round fight, which favors him.

Plans to bet on Arman more takedowns (prop bet) because Damir won't take him down
"I'm gonna stick with my guy here I'm hoping that loss to gamrat just sort of helps moving him forward"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady picks Tsarukyan, citing his elite wrestling and power advantage. He notes Ismagulov has 90% takedown defense but hasn't faced a wrestler like Tsarukyan. He thinks Tsarukyan will mix in takedowns and win a competitive decision. He wants to see Ismagulov's weight cut but leans Tsarukyan.

Tsarukyan wins by decision
"I gotta go with saruki in here and I will take him to win by decision but I think it's going to be a pretty close one here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

Cody likes Ismagulov as an underdog because of his well-rounded skills, solid takedown defense, and durability. He thinks Ismagulov can stay on the outside, use his jab, and stifle Tsarukyan's takedowns to win a striking battle. He notes Tsarukyan is still green and was taken down by Gamrot, which raises questions.

plus 165 underdog
"at plus 165 I feel like you can get worse underdogs... I'm not gonna lie man this is a 14 fight card... 165 one of the better ones that I did like"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2022 (fight day)
Damir Ismagulov

Ismagulov is very talented and this should be a 50/50 fight. He didn't show his best in his last two fights due to long layoffs, but this is his second fight in six months, so he should be in better shape. He can be defensively responsible with his grappling and outstrike Tsarukyan on the feet. The line is too wide in favor of Tsarukyan.

1 unit at +159
"this fight should really be a 50 50 fight it should be minus 110 on both sides as Israel gulab is very talented"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Paul picks Tsarukyan, believing he is a top talent with all the skills. He thinks Tsarukyan will land takedowns and is super quick on the feet. He notes Tsarukyan is young and still developing, expecting to see the best version of him. He is not confident enough to bet but picks him.

"I'm gonna pick saruki and I think he will be able to uh land some takedowns here... I expect to see the best arm and Armin sarukian that we have seen to date"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan over Damir Ismagulov, noting the three-round fight favors Tsarukyan's cardio. He believes Tsarukyan's lead switch kick to the body will be effective against Ismagulov's high guard, and that Ismagulov doesn't have the offensive grappling of Mateusz Gamrot to threaten takedowns. He also thinks Ismagulov took damage in his last fight against Guram Kutateladze. He predicts Tsarukyan's higher fight IQ and youth (26) will lead to a win.

"I'm gonna go if I'm in saruki in here over damira's magulov"