Career Averages - Carla Esparza
Career Averages - Yan Xiaonan
Carla Esparza
Yan Xiaonan
Carla Esparza - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tecia Pennington | 0 | 39 of 123 | 31% | 116 of 215 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 80 of 150 | 53% | 94 of 166 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 6 of 26 | 23% | 77 of 105 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:52 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 13 of 38 | 34% | 19 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 12 of 43 | 27% | 17 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 31 of 55 | 56% | 32 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 21 of 54 | 38% | 22 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 36 of 57 | 63% | 43 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tecia Pennington | 39 of 123 | 31% | 30 of 112 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 33 of 110 | 0 of 3 | 6 of 10 |
| Carla Esparza | 80 of 150 | 53% | 28 of 92 | 11 of 12 | 41 of 46 | 75 of 142 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tecia Pennington | 6 of 26 | 23% | 4 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Carla Esparza | 13 of 38 | 34% | 8 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 34 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tecia Pennington | 12 of 43 | 27% | 6 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Carla Esparza | 31 of 55 | 56% | 14 of 37 | 5 of 5 | 12 of 13 | 31 of 54 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tecia Pennington | 21 of 54 | 38% | 20 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 10 |
| Carla Esparza | 36 of 57 | 63% | 6 of 23 | 3 of 4 | 27 of 30 | 34 of 54 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Tecia Pennington, citing her recent good form, cardio, and ability to defend takedowns. He notes Carla Esparza is coming off a two-year layoff and may be rusty. He believes Pennington's pressure and volume will overwhelm Esparza as the fight goes on, especially at elevation where Pennington lives. He also suggests over 2.5 rounds as a safe bet.
Big Brady picks Tecia Pennington despite considering Esparza as a live dog. He cites major red flags for Esparza: a two-year layoff, a recent loss to Zhang Weili, this being her retirement fight, and having a child. He believes Pennington is the better striker and can stuff takedowns, and expects her to win a decision.
Cody picks Esparza as a dog, citing her wrestling and takedown ability. He questions Pennington's takedown defense and thinks Esparza can control the fight on the ground. He expects a decision win for Esparza.
Connor picks Esparza despite her long layoff and recent poor performances. He argues that Esparza's wrestling is likely to give her early success, and Pennington struggles to press her striking advantage. He notes that Pennington is a young veteran who never turned into a veteran veteran, and Esparza is tough to beat.
Daniel Vreeland picks Tecia Pennington, citing her volume striking and Esparza's potential decline. He notes that Esparza is coming off a pregnancy and has announced this as her retirement fight, which often leads to poor performances. Vreeland believes if Pennington can stuff takedowns, her volume will be too much for Esparza, and he expects a decision win.
The host believes Tecia Pennington has improved significantly since her loss to Carla Esparza nearly 10 years ago. He notes that both women are now mothers, but Pennington has less ring rust as she fought earlier this year. He expects Pennington to have a better overall game and win on the scorecards with a damage-based approach.
Paul leans toward Esparza, noting her wrestling and the value at plus 150. He thinks Pennington's takedown defense is suspect and that Esparza can grind out a decision. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.
The MMA Guru initially leans toward Carla Esparza but switches to Tecia Pennington after visualizing the matchup. He notes Pennington is faster, more explosive, and has better wrestling and scrambles. He also mentions Pennington's recent split decision with Tabatha Ricci and win over Angela Hill, while Esparza's speed is lacking. He expresses regret and uncertainty, calling it a tough pick.
Zane also picks Esparza, though he admits he came into the discussion feeling down on her. He notes that Esparza's wrestling should give her an early round, and Pennington's inability to press her striking advantage makes it likely Esparza wins a decision. He acknowledges the retirement factor but thinks Esparza's scrappiness will carry her.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 6 of 32 | 18% | 19 of 50 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 0:55 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 37 of 78 | 47% | 42 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 5 of 27 | 18% | 18 of 45 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 0:53 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 33 of 65 | 50% | 38 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:00 | |
| 2 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Weili | 6 of 32 | 18% | 6 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Carla Esparza | 37 of 78 | 47% | 20 of 58 | 8 of 9 | 9 of 11 | 24 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhang Weili | 5 of 27 | 18% | 5 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Carla Esparza | 33 of 65 | 50% | 19 of 48 | 6 of 7 | 8 of 10 | 20 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 15 | |
| 2 | Zhang Weili | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carla Esparza | 4 of 13 | 30% | 1 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo believes Weili is the more dangerous fighter with power and improved wrestling. He expects Esparza to shoot takedowns but thinks Weili's athleticism and preparation will allow her to defend and possibly out-grapple Esparza. He notes that Esparza's takedown defense is not great and that Weili could even get takedowns of her own. He picks Weili to win and expects Esparza to lose the belt quickly.
Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win inside the distance, expecting a brutal beatdown. He believes Esparza's wrestling won't be enough to control Zhang for 25 minutes, and that on the feet it's not close. He compares it to Esparza's loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, where she couldn't get takedowns and got finished. He notes Zhang knocked out Joanna with a spinning back fist and looks like a killer.
Cody picks Zhang Weili to win inside the distance, specifically by TKO. He compares the fight to Esparza's first title loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, where Esparza was pressured against the cage and ate shots until the ref stopped it. He notes that Zhang hits very hard and that Esparza needs a perfect fight to get takedowns without taking damage. Cody believes Zhang's power and pressure will lead to a stoppage, and he prefers the inside distance prop over the moneyline.
Daniel Levi picks Zhang Weili to become a two-time champion, but he is hesitant due to the price (-350) and the danger of Carla Esparza's wrestling and top control. He acknowledges that Carla has a history of mauling opponents like Yan Xiaonan and making Rose Namajunas gun-shy. Levi believes Weili is more well-rounded, powerful, and athletic, and he predicts a finish. However, he warns that if Weili gets laid on, it could be a repeat of Carla's past upsets. He advises against betting Carla again after her big dog win over Rose, calling it a 'one-time well.'
The host believes Zhang will get an early knockout, likely in the first two rounds. He notes Esparza's grappling is a threat, especially if the fight goes long, but Zhang's power and improved grappling should be enough to finish early. He recommends Zhang inside the distance rather than the moneyline, expecting a KO or submission. He also notes the under 4.5 rounds at +100 as a good bet.
Paul also picks Zhang Weili inside the distance, but specifically likes the TKO prop. He notes that Esparza's takedown defense is suspect and that when she is forced to exchange, she tends to swell up. Paul highlights Zhang's pace, accuracy, and power, and believes that Esparza will not be able to get Zhang down. He warns against taking the KO prop specifically, recommending the inside distance prop instead to avoid being burned like he was with Poliana Viana.
The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili, citing her improved grappling under Henry Cejudo and her ability to stuff takedowns and land knees and elbows. He notes Esparza's poor striking and her loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, who stuffed 16 takedowns. He predicts a first-round TKO, with Weili dominating on the feet and stuffing all takedowns.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 37 of 136 | 27% | 38 of 137 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 30 of 133 | 22% | 30 of 133 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 4 of 19 | 21% | 4 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 4 of 19 | 21% | 4 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 3 of 14 | 21% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 4 of 22 | 18% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 11 of 36 | 30% | 11 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 9 of 32 | 28% | 9 of 32 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 4 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 6 of 28 | 21% | 7 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 8 of 29 | 27% | 8 of 29 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 5 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 13 of 39 | 33% | 13 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 5 of 31 | 16% | 5 of 31 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 37 of 136 | 27% | 30 of 122 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 36 of 135 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 30 of 133 | 22% | 15 of 108 | 4 of 11 | 11 of 14 | 27 of 128 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 4 of 19 | 21% | 4 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 4 of 19 | 21% | 2 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 3 of 14 | 21% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 4 of 22 | 18% | 1 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 11 of 36 | 30% | 10 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 11 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 9 of 32 | 28% | 7 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Carla Esparza | 6 of 28 | 21% | 6 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 8 of 29 | 27% | 3 of 22 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Carla Esparza | 13 of 39 | 33% | 7 of 30 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 5 of 31 | 16% | 2 of 24 | 0 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Rose Namajunas despite acknowledging Carla's wrestling. He argues that Weili Zhang took Rose down five times but still lost, and that Carla's top pressure isn't as good as it should be. He believes Rose only has to worry about the wrestling, whereas Weili was a threat on the feet too.
Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas to win by decision, but he is hesitant. He acknowledges that Esparza will likely take Rose down multiple times, as Rose's takedown defense is only 51% and she hasn't faced many wrestlers. However, he believes Rose's get-up game and activity off her back will prevent Esparza from holding her down for long. On the feet, Rose has a clear advantage. He notes that if this were a three-round fight, he might pick Esparza, but over five rounds, Esparza's wrestling-heavy style is harder to sustain. He is not in love with the price tag.
Cody agrees with Paul, picking Rose Namajunas. He notes that Esparza's wrestling was effective a lifetime ago but Rose has improved her grappling significantly. Cody cites Tatiana Suarez's take that Esparza isn't physically strong and may not outmuscle Rose. He points out that Esparza has never fought into a fourth round, while Rose has championship-round experience. Cody believes Rose can nullify takedowns, get back up, and eventually win by late stoppage or decision.
Daniel Levi picks Rose Namajunas but is not confident, calling it a 'dog or pass' fight. He acknowledges Carla Esparza will land takedowns and has a path to victory, but believes Rose has more ways to win, especially on the feet. He says he would take Rose if the odds were closer to pick'em, but at -220 he is not betting. He respects the value on Esparza at plus 180 and thinks the true odds are around Rose -145 to -150.
The host picks Rose Namajunas, believing her striking and range management have improved significantly since their first fight. He expects Rose to focus on defending takedowns and getting back to her feet. He notes Carla's takedowns can be sloppy and she doesn't do much damage on top. He thinks Rose's ability to create space and her deceptive power will be key. He is not betting Rose at -205, but likes under 4.5 rounds at +135.
Paul picks Rose Namajunas, calling it a straightforward striker vs grappler matchup. He believes Rose's camp has focused on sprawl training and that if the fight stays on the feet, Esparza cannot compete. Paul suggests live betting Esparza if she gets an early takedown, but overall expects Rose to retain her title. He notes the -210 line might be a bit wide but still favors Rose.
The MMA Guru picks Rose Namajunas, citing her improved stand-up and grappling. He notes that Esparza's recent wins have been close and that she doesn't dominate on the ground anymore. He believes Namajunas will stuff takedowns, chew up Esparza's legs, and eventually submit her in the fourth round via rear-naked choke. He mentions the odds are close because Esparza has a previous win, but thinks Namajunas is the better fighter.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 31 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 27 of 33 | 81% | 170 of 194 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 7:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 24 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 13 of 15 | 86% | 104 of 117 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:52 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 14 of 18 | 77% | 66 of 77 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 5 of 11 | 45% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 27 of 33 | 81% | 27 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 31 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 13 of 15 | 86% | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 15 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 14 of 18 | 77% | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 16 |
Big Brady sides with Yan Xiaonan due to her striking volume (6.42 significant strikes per minute vs 2.29) and damage output, but is hesitant because Esparza's takedowns and control time could sway judges. He notes Yan's 75% takedown defense is key, but the fight is close and could go either way depending on judging criteria. He would bet Yan if she becomes an underdog.
Cody Saftic leans toward Carla Esparza, trusting the line movement from +150 to +100. He believes Esparza's wrestling and fight IQ will allow her to secure takedowns and control the fight, even if she fades in the third round. He notes that Esparza's style leads to close decisions and that she finds ways to win even when not at her best. However, he is not confident enough to bet, calling it a pass.
Daniel Levi picks Yan Xiaonan, praising her discipline, distance management, and takedown defense improvements at Team Alpha Male. He argues that Carla Esparza is one-dimensional with wrestling, while Yan has shown she can stuff takedowns and get back up, as seen against Claudia Gadelha. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Yan, possibly a late TKO, and believes she is the future champion.
Matt picks Carla Esparza despite being a fan of Yan Xiaonan, because he believes Esparza's elite wrestling and top control will be the deciding factor. He compares the matchup to Yan's fight against Claudia Gadelha, where Yan struggled with takedowns early but came back as Claudia faded. He argues Esparza has better cardio and wrestling than Gadelha, so she can grind out a decision. He notes Yan's takedown defense remains questionable and expects Esparza to secure takedowns in every round. He likes Esparza by decision at plus money.
Paul Shaughnessy picks Yan Xiaonan, believing she will stuff most takedowns and land the more impactful strikes. He notes that Esparza swells up from jabs and that Yan has shown improvement. However, he is not confident enough to bet, preferring to pass or parlay the fight going the distance. He acknowledges that either woman could win a close decision.
The MMA Guru predicts Yan Xiaonan will win by 30-27 unanimous decision. He believes Yan's takedown defense and range management with sidekicks will be key. Even when Esparza gets takedowns, Yan will stay busy off her back with elbows and punches, out-landing Esparza in total strikes, similar to Carlos Condit vs Matt Brown.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 33 of 60 | 55% | 118 of 152 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 1 | 0 | 8:54 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 40 of 76 | 52% | 91 of 129 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 49 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:21 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 20 of 33 | 60% | 30 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:50 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 32 of 47 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 2:28 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 14 of 29 | 48% | 43 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 18 of 29 | 62% | 37 of 49 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:05 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 18 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 33 of 60 | 55% | 29 of 56 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 28 of 43 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 40 of 76 | 52% | 34 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 6 | 15 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 25 of 37 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 8 of 12 | 66% | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 12 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 20 of 33 | 60% | 20 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 25 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 7 of 19 | 36% | 6 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 11 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 14 of 29 | 48% | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 10 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 18 of 29 | 62% | 15 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 20 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 6 of 14 | 42% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Big Brady picks Rodriguez because of her huge striking advantage and high output. He notes Esparza's path is takedowns, but thinks Rodriguez can be active off her back and get up. He placed a bet on Rodriguez at -160 and predicts a third-round knockout, though he acknowledges Esparza could win if she controls on the ground.
Daniel is confident in Marina Rodriguez, citing her striking advantage, length, and viciousness. He believes she will stuff takedowns and light up Esparza on the feet, similar to Joanna's win over Esparza. He notes Rodriguez's improvements in getting up from takedowns and her mental toughness. He sees a dominant decision win.
Esparza is the superior wrestler and grappler, and Rodriguez has shown clear flaws in takedown defense. Esparza's chain wrestling and ability to secure takedowns should be the difference. Rodriguez has a striking advantage but Esparza can nullify it with relentless grappling. Esparza likely wins by decision.
The MMA Guru picks Carla Esparza, arguing that Marina Rodriguez has failed in her step-ups in competition, while Esparza is a better version of Tecia Torres, stronger and more smothering. He believes Esparza's wrestling and pressure will be too much for Rodriguez.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 45 of 103 | 43% | 48 of 106 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 44 of 98 | 44% | 44 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 7 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 9 of 28 | 32% | 9 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 15 of 31 | 48% | 16 of 32 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 25 of 54 | 46% | 25 of 54 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 22 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 45 of 103 | 43% | 34 of 88 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 7 | 39 of 94 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 44 of 98 | 44% | 15 of 60 | 13 of 16 | 16 of 22 | 39 of 92 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 5 of 18 | 27% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 9 of 28 | 32% | 4 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 7 | 9 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 15 of 31 | 48% | 13 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 13 of 26 | 50% | 3 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 25 of 54 | 46% | 18 of 46 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 21 of 47 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 22 of 44 | 50% | 8 of 27 | 7 of 9 | 7 of 8 | 20 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Carla Esparza, expecting her to secure takedowns and control Waterson, swaying judges in close rounds. He notes Esparza's improving striking but gives Waterson the edge on the feet. He predicts a very close decision win for Esparza.
Daniel Levi leans towards Michelle Waterson, believing the fight should be a pick'em and thus taking the underdog. He notes Waterson's underrated wrestling, sidekicks, and head-and-arm throw, and thinks she can frustrate Esparza on the outside. Levi acknowledges Esparza's improved boxing but sees Waterson as having more tricks and being undervalued.
Matt leans Esparza, believing she can get takedowns at will and grind out a decision. He notes her improving striking and submission defense, but worries about Waterson's submissions off her back. He considers Esparza a potential lock but is not pulling the trigger at -164, preferring to wait for better spots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 44 of 80 | 55% | 115 of 157 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 0 | 1 | 7:12 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 45 of 103 | 43% | 103 of 169 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 18 of 36 | 50% | 36 of 54 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 17 of 41 | 41% | 33 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 13 of 18 | 72% | 56 of 64 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:25 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 6 of 20 | 30% | 35 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:05 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 23 of 39 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:16 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 35 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 44 of 80 | 55% | 27 of 60 | 11 of 14 | 6 of 6 | 28 of 59 | 6 of 9 | 10 of 12 |
| Alexa Grasso | 45 of 103 | 43% | 41 of 97 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 88 | 3 of 6 | 8 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 18 of 36 | 50% | 8 of 25 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 29 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Alexa Grasso | 17 of 41 | 41% | 15 of 37 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 36 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 13 of 18 | 72% | 10 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 11 |
| Alexa Grasso | 6 of 20 | 30% | 5 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 13 of 26 | 50% | 9 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexa Grasso | 22 of 42 | 52% | 21 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 7 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 25 of 51 | 49% | 97 of 128 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 0 | 1 | 5:25 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 17 of 37 | 45% | 64 of 89 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 0 | 2 | 3:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 26 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 22 of 26 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 28 of 40 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 0:43 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 24 of 35 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 1:42 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 43 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 18 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 1:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 25 of 51 | 49% | 18 of 43 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 30 | 8 of 12 | 5 of 9 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 17 of 37 | 45% | 13 of 33 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 30 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 8 of 12 | 66% | 4 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 7 of 10 | 70% | 3 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 9 of 20 | 45% | 7 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 5 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 7 of 15 | 46% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 12 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 8 of 19 | 42% | 7 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 3 of 12 | 25% | 3 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Yan Xiaonan - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 17 of 44 | 38% | 64 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:27 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 96 of 131 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 3 | 1 | 9:59 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 31 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 18 of 31 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 3:03 | |
| 2 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 14 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:27 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 40 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 4:14 | |
| 3 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 7 of 21 | 33% | 19 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 38 of 49 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 | 0 | 2:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Xiaonan | 17 of 44 | 38% | 13 of 34 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 12 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 11 of 20 | 55% | 11 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yan Xiaonan | 6 of 17 | 35% | 4 of 11 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Yan Xiaonan | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Yan Xiaonan | 7 of 21 | 33% | 5 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 7 of 10 | 70% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Daniel Levi credits Yan Xiaonan for surviving three rounds on the mat with Virna Jandiroba despite being a blue belt, but acknowledges Jandiroba's victory. He states Jandiroba earned her title shot and should face Zhang Weili next.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 78 of 161 | 48% | 89 of 172 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 15 of 103 | 14% | 17 of 106 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 16 of 40 | 40% | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 0 of 13 | 0% | 0 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 25 of 54 | 46% | 34 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 8 of 30 | 26% | 10 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 3 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 37 of 67 | 55% | 39 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 7 of 60 | 11% | 7 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Xiaonan | 78 of 161 | 48% | 45 of 118 | 25 of 34 | 8 of 9 | 77 of 159 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Tabatha Ricci | 15 of 103 | 14% | 8 of 85 | 1 of 4 | 6 of 14 | 15 of 101 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yan Xiaonan | 16 of 40 | 40% | 5 of 25 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tabatha Ricci | 0 of 13 | 0% | 0 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Yan Xiaonan | 25 of 54 | 46% | 16 of 40 | 7 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 25 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tabatha Ricci | 8 of 30 | 26% | 3 of 21 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 8 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Yan Xiaonan | 37 of 67 | 55% | 24 of 53 | 11 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 36 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tabatha Ricci | 7 of 60 | 11% | 5 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 7 | 7 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Yan Xiaonan, praising her boxing and technical striking. He acknowledges Tabatha Ricci's pressure and cardio but believes Yan's skills and takedown defense will prevail. He suggests the over 2.5 rounds is a good bet.
Big Brady picks Tabatha Ricci with little confidence. He thinks the odds are off and that Yan Xiaonan's takedown defense is questionable, recalling the Carla Esparza loss where Yan was easily taken down. If Ricci can get takedowns, she can win minutes on top. Even on the feet, Ricci can push Yan against the cage and burn clock. Brady sees a path for Ricci to win by decision but is not confident.
Cody picks Ricci as a live underdog, arguing that Yan's takedown defense is suspect and Ricci's grappling is elite. He notes that Ricci has taken down multiple black belts and that Yan was exposed by Carla Esparza's wrestling. He believes Ricci can get takedowns, control top position, and grind out a decision or even a submission. He likes Ricci by decision at plus money.
Connor also picks Yan, emphasizing that Yan's boxing is far superior and that Ricci's grappling, while strong, may not be effective against a bigger, high-output striker. He notes that Ricci's top game is static and she struggles to finish, so Yan can survive takedowns and win on the feet. Connor agrees that the three-round format helps Ricci but still favors Yan.
Daniel Vreeland is a long-time Yan Xiaonan backer and continues the trend here. He sees a big size and striking advantage for Yan, noting Ricci's janky striking and poor top control. He references Ricci's inability to hold down Angela Hill and believes Yan's improved takedown defense and toughness will allow her to get back up. He expects Yan to light Ricci up on the feet and win decisively.
James leans towards Yan Xiaonan as the better striker, but is cautious due to Yan coming off a brutal loss and Ricci's improving grappling. He expects Yan to win a 29-28 decision on damage, but considers it a pass fight with no strong betting opinion.
Paul picks Yan Xiaonan but is hesitant, noting that Ricci has a path to victory via takedowns and control. He thinks Yan's striking power and ferocity will be the difference, but she must stay off her back and get up immediately if taken down. He expects a close fight that goes to decision and could see a split.
The MMA Guru picks Yan Xiaonan over Tabatha Ricci, citing Yan's better boxing, range control, and size advantage. He notes Yan has fought top competition, including a decision loss to Zhang Weili where she dropped Zhang, and wins over Jessica Andrade and Mackenzie Dern. He believes Ricci's 'bunder' won't sway judges in China. He predicts a decision win for Yan.
Zane picks Yan Xiaonan, citing her superior striking volume, technique, and power. He acknowledges Ricci's improved boxing and strong double-leg takedown, but doubts Ricci's ability to control Yan on the ground due to size and static top game. Zane also notes that the three-round format helps Ricci, but Yan's striking advantage should carry her if she avoids being controlled for two rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 106 of 157 | 67% | 256 of 327 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 12:44 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 1 | 43 of 85 | 50% | 73 of 116 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 2:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 17 of 30 | 56% | 20 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 7 of 23 | 30% | 7 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 2 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 54 of 59 | 91% | 66 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:51 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:10 | |
| 3 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 12 of 25 | 48% | 39 of 56 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 1 | 26 of 34 | 76% | 33 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 | |
| 4 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 19 of 33 | 57% | 59 of 86 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:42 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 5 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 72 of 81 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:50 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 16 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Weili | 106 of 157 | 67% | 84 of 119 | 13 of 19 | 9 of 19 | 34 of 78 | 4 of 4 | 68 of 75 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 43 of 85 | 50% | 21 of 60 | 4 of 6 | 18 of 19 | 24 of 64 | 3 of 4 | 16 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhang Weili | 17 of 30 | 56% | 9 of 16 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 8 | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 7 of 23 | 30% | 6 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | |
| 2 | Zhang Weili | 54 of 59 | 91% | 51 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 48 of 49 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Zhang Weili | 12 of 25 | 48% | 4 of 14 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 21 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 26 of 34 | 76% | 7 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 16 | 9 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 15 | |
| 4 | Zhang Weili | 19 of 33 | 57% | 16 of 26 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 19 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 4 of 10 | 40% | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Zhang Weili | 4 of 10 | 40% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is most confident in Zhang Weili, calling her better in every aspect of MMA. He notes her dominant performance against Amanda Lemos and believes she will easily defeat Yan Xiaonan. He recommends using her as a parlay anchor.
Cody sees a clear path for Zhang Weili via wrestling. He notes Yan Xiaonan has been taken down easily by Carla Esparza, Marina Rodriguez, and Mackenzie Dern, and has no get-up game. In contrast, Zhang Weili has excellent grappling, taking down Rose Namajunas five times and Joanna Jedrzejczyk three times. Cody believes Zhang can win on the feet too, but the path of least resistance is takedowns and ground control. He expects Zhang to grind Yan down and possibly secure a rear-naked choke or TKO.
Daniel Vreeland picks Zhang Weili, stating that Yan Xiaonan's path to victory is unclear. He notes that Weili is always balanced and in the right position, and that she can match volume. He also mentions that Weili beat Yan J at her own game, and that she has a huge grappling advantage if she chooses to use it.
Daniel Vreeland picks Yan Xiaonan as a massive underdog, citing his history of betting on her in every UFC fight and her value at plus odds. He acknowledges Zhang Weili's grappling advantage but believes Yan's improved takedown defense and striking can keep the fight standing, where she has the edge. He notes Yan's survival against McKenzie Dern as evidence of her improved ground game.
Jeff Fox picks Zhang Weili, agreeing with Vreeland. He notes that Weili is better everywhere in this fight, and that she will put on a one-sided beating. He also mentions that if she chose to grapple, she could finish the fight.
Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He mentions it as the all-Chinese women's title fight but does not give a prediction. He only discusses it in the context of the card's strength.
Weili should put together a better body of work with a mixture of takedowns and striking damage to retain her title and win on the scorecards. However, -500 is not accurate as Yan Xiaonan is much livelier than the underdog price indicates and will provide resistance.
Paul sees this as a dogger pass situation, noting that women's strawweight fights are often close and go the distance. He acknowledges Zhang Weili should be the favorite but thinks the 4-to-1 price is too wide. Paul mentions Yan Xiaonan's path to victory is a first-round knockout, pointing out that Zhang has been knocked out before (by Rose Namajunas head kick) and that Yan just knocked out Jessica Andrade in the first round. He's tempted by the +385 underdog and the 30-to-1 round one prop.
The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili to win by decision, dominating Yan Xiaonan. He praises Zhang's improvement and her performance against Amanda Lemos. He sees no path to victory for Yan and expects Zhang to use her grappling and striking to control the fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 1 | 26 of 36 | 72% | 26 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 1 | 26 of 36 | 72% | 26 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Xiaonan | 12 of 32 | 37% | 5 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 26 of 36 | 72% | 12 of 22 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 9 | 23 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yan Xiaonan | 12 of 32 | 37% | 5 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 26 of 36 | 72% | 12 of 22 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 9 | 23 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Angelo picks Jéssica Andrade but with very low confidence, admitting he has flip-flopped multiple times. He thinks Andrade's raw power and bullying style can close the distance and get the fight to the ground, where she can pound away. However, he acknowledges Yan Xiaonan is the better striker with clean technique and composure. Angelo notes that if Andrade can't bully her way in, she'll be a step behind on the feet. He emphasizes this is a low-confidence pick.
Big Brady picks Andrade, citing her wrestling and grappling advantage. He notes Yan Xiaonan was dominated by Carla Esparza, who has no finishing ability, so Andrade's takedowns and top control will be overwhelming. He believes Andrade is super strong for the division, has great cardio, and will take Yan down at will. He predicts a second-round TKO via ground and pound.
Cody thinks Andrade should win on paper with her strength, power, and experience, but is concerned about her recent performance against Erin Blanchfield where she looked burnt out and quit. He notes she's been fighting for a decade and may be mentally done. He leans toward Andrade but says he doesn't trust her at -200 and might take Yan as an underdog if he needs one later.
Connor also picks Andrade, agreeing that Yan's volume won't be enough against Andrade's power and durability. He notes that Andrade is a rare power puncher in the division and that Yan's awkward kicks and jabs won't deter her. Connor mentions that Yan's best wins are against opponents who couldn't match her output, but Andrade is different.
The host picks Jéssica Andrade, believing her strength, top pressure, and ability to drag the fight to the ground will be decisive. He acknowledges Yan Xiaonan's striking and submission defense but thinks Andrade's power and grappling will overwhelm Yan. He expects Andrade to get a ground and pound finish.
Paul got burned betting on Andrade against Blanchfield and is wary of the -200 price. He notes that Andrade's takedowns could be effective, as MacKenzie Dern had success taking Yan down. He thinks Andrade gets back on track but the price is too high after her last performance, so he picks her but won't bet.
The Guru picks Andrade, believing she won't be outgrappled by Yan and that her pressure and body shots will be key. He notes Yan has been outgrappled before (by Carla Esparza) and that Andrade's size at strawweight is dangerous. He predicts a TKO in the second round via body shots and punches against the cage.
Zane picks Andrade, noting that Yan's success comes against opponents who can't make her pay for her volume, but Andrade has the physicality and power to do so. He points out that Andrade doesn't gas out and that Yan's game plan of stuffing takedowns and outworking won't work against Andrade. Zane compares Yan's style to Joanna Jedrzejczyk but says Yan is not Joanna.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 61 of 151 | 40% | 224 of 339 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 2 | 2 | 9:19 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 113 of 195 | 57% | 151 of 240 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 16 of 42 | 38% | 19 of 45 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:01 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 28 of 52 | 53% | 38 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 2 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 9 of 15 | 60% | 56 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 1 | 2:44 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 8 of 9 | 88% | 17 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:50 | |
| 3 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 18 of 45 | 40% | 22 of 49 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 32 of 66 | 48% | 32 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 4 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 14 of 38 | 36% | 30 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 38 of 56 | 67% | 49 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:28 | |
| 5 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 97 of 113 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:35 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 15 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Xiaonan | 61 of 151 | 40% | 45 of 132 | 10 of 13 | 6 of 6 | 52 of 136 | 3 of 7 | 6 of 8 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 113 of 195 | 57% | 53 of 126 | 14 of 21 | 46 of 48 | 100 of 178 | 6 of 9 | 7 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yan Xiaonan | 16 of 42 | 38% | 13 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 39 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 28 of 52 | 53% | 12 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 14 of 15 | 25 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Yan Xiaonan | 9 of 15 | 60% | 8 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 8 of 9 | 88% | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | |
| 3 | Yan Xiaonan | 18 of 45 | 40% | 10 of 36 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 32 of 66 | 48% | 12 of 41 | 3 of 7 | 17 of 18 | 31 of 64 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Yan Xiaonan | 14 of 38 | 36% | 10 of 33 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 38 of 56 | 67% | 18 of 36 | 8 of 8 | 12 of 12 | 34 of 49 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 3 | |
| 5 | Yan Xiaonan | 4 of 11 | 36% | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 7 of 12 | 58% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Cody also picks Dern by submission but expresses hesitations about her takedown accuracy (9%) and ability to get the fight to the ground consistently. He notes that Yan Xiaonan is tough and has good takedown defense, and that Dern's path to victory is entirely on the mat. He suggests live betting Yan if Dern fails to secure early takedowns, and mentions that Dern's submission win is the most logical outcome but not a lock.
Paul picks Mackenzie Dern by submission, noting her world-class jiu-jitsu and ability to get the fight to the ground via pulling guard or ugly clinch work. He acknowledges her one-dimensional striking and that Yan Xiaonan will likely win the standup, but believes Dern's durability and submission threat will prevail. He mentions the over/under on prize picks and the inside distance prop, but his official pick is Dern by submission.
The MMA Guru believes Mackenzie Dern's elite BJJ will be the deciding factor over five rounds. He notes that Yan Xiaonan has lost two straight and was dominated by Carla Esparza, who used a similar grappling-heavy game plan. He thinks Dern will eventually get the fight to the ground and secure a submission, as Yan has not faced a grappler of Dern's level since a faded Claudia Gadelha. He acknowledges Yan could win rounds early but expects Dern's persistence to pay off.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 72 of 200 | 36% | 79 of 207 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 56 of 132 | 42% | 66 of 143 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 18 of 48 | 37% | 18 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 24 of 54 | 44% | 25 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 14 of 45 | 31% | 20 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 14 of 34 | 41% | 22 of 43 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 | |
| 3 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 40 of 107 | 37% | 41 of 108 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 18 of 44 | 40% | 19 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 72 of 200 | 36% | 46 of 166 | 18 of 19 | 8 of 15 | 59 of 182 | 13 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 56 of 132 | 42% | 37 of 105 | 7 of 9 | 12 of 18 | 48 of 121 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 18 of 48 | 37% | 9 of 35 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 8 | 16 of 45 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 24 of 54 | 44% | 18 of 42 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 8 | 21 of 50 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 14 of 45 | 31% | 9 of 38 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 9 of 38 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 14 of 34 | 41% | 7 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 11 of 29 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marina Rodriguez | 40 of 107 | 37% | 28 of 93 | 10 of 10 | 2 of 4 | 34 of 99 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 18 of 44 | 40% | 12 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 16 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez but thinks the odds are too wide. He notes Marina is faster and more powerful, and that Yan has only executed a wrestle-heavy game plan once. He plans to place a plus 3.5 round bet on Yan, buying a round on the scorecard. He calls Yan 'stupid live' at the current odds.
Big Brady picks Marina Rodriguez to win by decision. He believes Rodriguez will have a significant power advantage on the feet and that Yan Xiaonan is unlikely to attempt takedowns, which plays into Rodriguez's strengths. Brady notes that Rodriguez has improved her takedown defense and ground game, making it hard for Yan to take her down. He acknowledges the line is a bit steep at -250 but still favors Rodriguez to win.
Cody believes Rodriguez is the rightful favorite because she has never lost a striking battle and hits hard for the division. He notes her takedown defense is a concern but argues Yan's wrestling is not elite, based on tape of Yan's takedowns against Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Cody thinks if Yan can't take her down, Rodriguez wins the striking exchanges with volume and power.
Daniel Levi picks Yan Xiaonan as a dog, citing the plus 250 odds. He believes this will be a close, competitive striking match and that Yan has the striking acumen to edge out a decision. He notes that Marina has only landed one takedown in her UFC career, so there is little takedown threat. He acknowledges Marina's improvements but thinks the odds are too wide and Yan has value.
The line is too wide; this is a 50/50 fight. Yan's power striking and training at Team Alpha Male should pose problems for Rodriguez. Rodriguez is a striker but hasn't faced someone with Yan's power. Yan's takedown defense is a concern, but Rodriguez rarely grapples. At plus money, Yan is the clear value pick. Yan can outstrike Rodriguez and win a decision.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting Rodriguez's striking volume and power. He is skeptical of Yan's wrestling after watching the Kowalkiewicz fight, where Yan's takedowns were not from clean entries but rather Kowalkiewicz giving up position. Paul believes if Yan cannot take Rodriguez down, she will lose the striking battle. He calls it a women's MMA fight but is confident in Rodriguez.
The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez over Yan Xiaonan, expecting a striking affair. He notes Yan's main weakness is grappling, but believes Rodriguez has improved her cardio and striking variety, using more kicks to the body and legs. He thinks Rodriguez is more powerful and tougher, predicting a 30-27 decision where she pieces Yan apart. He also expresses a hot take that Rodriguez will become champion.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 31 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 27 of 33 | 81% | 170 of 194 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 7:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 24 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 13 of 15 | 86% | 104 of 117 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:52 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 14 of 18 | 77% | 66 of 77 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 5 of 11 | 45% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 27 of 33 | 81% | 27 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 31 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 13 of 15 | 86% | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 15 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 14 of 18 | 77% | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 16 |
Big Brady sides with Yan Xiaonan due to her striking volume (6.42 significant strikes per minute vs 2.29) and damage output, but is hesitant because Esparza's takedowns and control time could sway judges. He notes Yan's 75% takedown defense is key, but the fight is close and could go either way depending on judging criteria. He would bet Yan if she becomes an underdog.
Cody Saftic leans toward Carla Esparza, trusting the line movement from +150 to +100. He believes Esparza's wrestling and fight IQ will allow her to secure takedowns and control the fight, even if she fades in the third round. He notes that Esparza's style leads to close decisions and that she finds ways to win even when not at her best. However, he is not confident enough to bet, calling it a pass.
Daniel Levi picks Yan Xiaonan, praising her discipline, distance management, and takedown defense improvements at Team Alpha Male. He argues that Carla Esparza is one-dimensional with wrestling, while Yan has shown she can stuff takedowns and get back up, as seen against Claudia Gadelha. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Yan, possibly a late TKO, and believes she is the future champion.
Matt picks Carla Esparza despite being a fan of Yan Xiaonan, because he believes Esparza's elite wrestling and top control will be the deciding factor. He compares the matchup to Yan's fight against Claudia Gadelha, where Yan struggled with takedowns early but came back as Claudia faded. He argues Esparza has better cardio and wrestling than Gadelha, so she can grind out a decision. He notes Yan's takedown defense remains questionable and expects Esparza to secure takedowns in every round. He likes Esparza by decision at plus money.
Paul Shaughnessy picks Yan Xiaonan, believing she will stuff most takedowns and land the more impactful strikes. He notes that Esparza swells up from jabs and that Yan has shown improvement. However, he is not confident enough to bet, preferring to pass or parlay the fight going the distance. He acknowledges that either woman could win a close decision.
The MMA Guru predicts Yan Xiaonan will win by 30-27 unanimous decision. He believes Yan's takedown defense and range management with sidekicks will be key. Even when Esparza gets takedowns, Yan will stay busy off her back with elbows and punches, out-landing Esparza in total strikes, similar to Carlos Condit vs Matt Brown.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 36 of 96 | 37% | 84 of 149 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 6:46 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 74 of 170 | 43% | 133 of 234 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 10 of 26 | 38% | 53 of 72 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 4:06 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 51 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 18 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 26 of 78 | 33% | 27 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 9 of 27 | 33% | 13 of 33 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:33 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 29 of 56 | 51% | 55 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Xiaonan | 36 of 96 | 37% | 29 of 84 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 88 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 5 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 74 of 170 | 43% | 54 of 143 | 15 of 21 | 5 of 6 | 58 of 149 | 14 of 18 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yan Xiaonan | 10 of 26 | 38% | 9 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 19 of 36 | 52% | 10 of 22 | 6 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 13 of 27 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 3 | |
| 2 | Yan Xiaonan | 17 of 43 | 39% | 13 of 38 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 26 of 78 | 33% | 23 of 73 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Yan Xiaonan | 9 of 27 | 33% | 7 of 22 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 29 of 56 | 51% | 21 of 48 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 44 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Yan, citing her volume striking and power, and Gadelha's decline in wrestling and cardio. He thinks Yan's takedown defense is good and she will win a decision, possibly live betting opportunity. He notes Gadelha has been dropped before.
Daniel Levi picks Yan Xiaonan, believing she is catching Cláudia Gadelha at the perfect time. He acknowledges Gadelha's grappling threat but thinks Yan can stuff takedowns and outwork her on the feet with volume and damage. Levi notes Yan's training at Alpha Male and with Sarah McMahon to improve wrestling, and he expects Yan to win a decision or possibly get a finish. He is concerned about submission but thinks Yan can avoid it.
The host likes Yan Xiaonan's pressure, power, and combinations to overwhelm Gadelha, who has cardio issues and declining takedown effectiveness. He notes Yan's training at Team Alpha Male and her ability to get back to her feet. He expects a decision or third-round TKO, and loves the -135 line.
The MMA Guru picks Yan Xiaonan to win by unanimous decision. He believes Yan will pick apart Gadelha from range with her straight punches, and that Gadelha slows down as the fight goes on. He notes Yan's high output and ability to rally in later rounds.
Expert Picks (6)
Big Brady sides with Yan Xiaonan due to her striking volume (6.42 significant strikes per minute vs 2.29) and damage output, but is hesitant because Esparza's takedowns and control time could sway judges. He notes Yan's 75% takedown defense is key, but the fight is close and could go either way depending on judging criteria. He would bet Yan if she becomes an underdog.
Cody Saftic leans toward Carla Esparza, trusting the line movement from +150 to +100. He believes Esparza's wrestling and fight IQ will allow her to secure takedowns and control the fight, even if she fades in the third round. He notes that Esparza's style leads to close decisions and that she finds ways to win even when not at her best. However, he is not confident enough to bet, calling it a pass.
Daniel Levi picks Yan Xiaonan, praising her discipline, distance management, and takedown defense improvements at Team Alpha Male. He argues that Carla Esparza is one-dimensional with wrestling, while Yan has shown she can stuff takedowns and get back up, as seen against Claudia Gadelha. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Yan, possibly a late TKO, and believes she is the future champion.
Matt picks Carla Esparza despite being a fan of Yan Xiaonan, because he believes Esparza's elite wrestling and top control will be the deciding factor. He compares the matchup to Yan's fight against Claudia Gadelha, where Yan struggled with takedowns early but came back as Claudia faded. He argues Esparza has better cardio and wrestling than Gadelha, so she can grind out a decision. He notes Yan's takedown defense remains questionable and expects Esparza to secure takedowns in every round. He likes Esparza by decision at plus money.
Paul Shaughnessy picks Yan Xiaonan, believing she will stuff most takedowns and land the more impactful strikes. He notes that Esparza swells up from jabs and that Yan has shown improvement. However, he is not confident enough to bet, preferring to pass or parlay the fight going the distance. He acknowledges that either woman could win a close decision.
The MMA Guru predicts Yan Xiaonan will win by 30-27 unanimous decision. He believes Yan's takedown defense and range management with sidekicks will be key. Even when Esparza gets takedowns, Yan will stay busy off her back with elbows and punches, out-landing Esparza in total strikes, similar to Carlos Condit vs Matt Brown.
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