vs
+158 -188
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · May 22, 2021 · Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt Next Fight
Age 34
Height 6' 4"
Reach 80.0"
Weight 265 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 32
Height 6' 0"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 264 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Jared Vanderaa
4.96 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
5.67 SApM
45.0% Str. Def.
0.18 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
20.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Justin Tafa
4.05 SLpM
54.0% Str. Acc.
5.11 SApM
47.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
53.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Jared Vanderaa
Moneyline
FanDuel +158
KO/TKO
BetWay +350
Submission
BetWay +800
Decision
BetWay +500
Justin Tafa
Moneyline
FanDuel -188
KO/TKO
BetWay +105
Submission
BetWay +1400
Decision
BetWay +450
Jared Vanderaa - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · Oct 29, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 73 of 158 46% 73 of 158 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jared Vanderaa 0 56 of 138 40% 59 of 143 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 22 of 39 56% 22 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 13 of 36 36% 13 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 25 of 53 47% 25 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jared Vanderaa 0 21 of 51 41% 24 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
3 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 26 of 66 39% 26 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 22 of 51 43% 22 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Waldo Cortes Acosta 73 of 158 46% 41 of 117 26 of 32 6 of 9 73 of 157 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 56 of 138 40% 12 of 92 5 of 5 39 of 41 52 of 128 4 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 22 of 39 56% 12 of 26 9 of 12 1 of 1 22 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 13 of 36 36% 1 of 24 0 of 0 12 of 12 13 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 25 of 53 47% 9 of 33 12 of 15 4 of 5 25 of 52 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 21 of 51 41% 4 of 33 4 of 4 13 of 14 17 of 41 4 of 10 0 of 0
3 Waldo Cortes Acosta 26 of 66 39% 20 of 58 5 of 5 1 of 3 26 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 22 of 51 43% 7 of 35 1 of 1 14 of 15 22 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Jared Vanderaa

Round 1
The heaviest match on the card also serves as its “featured fight,” as recent Contender Series pickup Cortes-Acosta (7-0, 0-0 UFC) looks to keep his spotless record intact against the struggling Californian known as “The Mountain” Vanderaa (12-9, 1-5 UFC). The smash-em-up derby that could end with the swing of one mighty fist will be overseen by referee Mark Smith, who is fully prepared should he need to stop the fight in a flash. The two men totaling 519.5 mighty pounds do not touch gloves to greet one another, and instead get warned by Smith for outstretched fingers. Cortes-Acosta wades forward with a slapping low kick, and he chases Vanderaa around the cage while looking for range strikes. There is a great deal of feinting and faking, until Cortes-Acosta loads up and rips a right hand to the body. Throwing a punch that is more of a fastball than a traditional strike, Cortes-Acosta again targets the ribcage. The single strikes continue from Cortes-Acosta as practically the only offense thus far two minutes in. Cortes-Acosta lands two punches over the top, and he lines up a few more punches to knock Vanderaa back. Vanderaa attempts to respond, and Cortes-Acosta is faster and more accurate as he smacks Vanderaa with his fists. Cortes-Acosta prepares his right hand, chambering it to release in search of a knockout, and Vanderaa settles down with a few jabs. The Cortes-Acosta right hand finds its target and reddens up the forehead, and he mixes in a front kick to the body. Vanderaa slowly, methodically kicks the calf a few times, and Cortes-Acosta start showing a limp and changes stances briefly. The movement from Cortes-Acosta is slightly hampered, but he still gives chase to “The Mountain.” Vanderaa swipes out with a huge low kick, and it lands hard enough to force an immediate stance change. When Cortes-Acosta swaps, Vanderaa kicks the other leg, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta

Round 2
The second frame opens with a busy Cortes-Acosta rushing forward, and Vanderaa backs off and kicks the calf on the inside and out. The kicks keep on coming from “The Mountain,” as Cortes-Acosta changes stances and walks into a kick on the other side. Vanderaa secures a hard low kick, and this prompts Cortes-Acosta into immediate action. Possibly in big trouble from the kicks, Cortes-Acosta blitzes and swings hammers. Vanderaa rolls with some of them and eats others flush, and he survives and escapes. Two calf kicks from Vanderaa draw a limp, and Cortes-Acosta lets out a roar and plods forward to swing wildly. The kicks are hurting Cortes-Acosta, and he is showing it while the power of his overhand right is not nearly as severe as before. Vanderaa slaps another low kick after sticking out a jab, and Cortes-Acosta checks a subsequent kick and yells out triumphantly. Vanderaa rips the body with a kick, and Cortes-Acosta races in with a few haymakers. Vanderaa ties him up and unloads with a short salvo, and Cortes-Acosta dips and dodges before escaping. Cortes-Acosta sits down on a low kick to get one back, and the crowd roars its approval. Vanderaa swipes out with a left hook, and he gets off a leg kick as he backs out. Cortes-Acosta parries a few jabs and lands one to the midsection, and is subsequently warned for pointing his fingers out at his opponent. They both trade single punches, and Vanderaa kicks with both legs to the calf and body. After a brief clinch, they throw punches at the last second, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vanderaa
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Vanderaa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vanderaa

Round 3
The heavyweights take the stage for the final round, and they begin tentatively as Cortes-Acosta reaches out and gets popped with a quick uppercut. The jabs come from the two fighters at about the 30-second mark, and Cortes-Acosta throws a kick up high. Vanderaa times this with a leg kick so he does damage on the plant leg, and he kicks on the other side of that same leg to follow. Cortes-Acosta connects with a clean right hand, and a left, but neither frazzle Vanderaa or slow him from low kicks. Vanderaa keeps active with low kicks, and one spins Cortes-Acosta all the way around. Cortes-Acosta headhunts while Vanderaa kicks, and this pattern does not change one iota. Vanderaa walks into an overhand right, and he grits his teeth and rides out the rest of a combination, as his nose begins to bleed. Vanderaa rushes forward but pulls back before throwing anything, and when he finally engages, Cortes-Acosta is there to greet him with an overhand right. Vanderaa attempts to respond, but Cortes-Acosta rolls through it and flashes out a few jabs. Cortes-Acosta starts showboating, dancing around and doing moves while showing off. Vanderaa answers this with a heavy leg kick, and Cortes-Acosta does not pay it any mind and throws a haymaker. Vanderaa starts dancing, and a kick from him forces Cortes-Acosta to cough out his mouthpiece. Cortes-Acosta replaces it and gets his lead leg chopped down, and the final 30 seconds lead to a sloppy but energetic slugfest. When the horn sounds, they both hug it out after a strange fight that made it the distance.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 Cortes-Acosta)
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 Cortes-Acosta)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 Cortes-Acosta)

The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Jared Vanderaa via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Big Brady picks Waldo Cortes Acosta to win by second-round knockout. He criticizes Vanderaa's poor fight IQ and lack of takedown attempts, noting that Vanderaa has a clear path to victory via wrestling but fails to execute. He highlights Acosta's power and volume, and believes Vanderaa's terrible striking defense will lead to a knockout.

Acosta wins by second-round knockout
"I like Costa to win I'll say by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Cody picks Waldo but is not betting him due to the -200 price and Waldo's greenness. He highlights Waldo's boxing background, solid takedown defense, and development at 31 years old. He criticizes Jared Vanderaa's low fight IQ, citing his poor decision to wrestle Alexey Oleynik and his lack of takedown attempts against Chase Sherman. Cody prefers the over 1.5 rounds prop as a betting angle.

Over 1.5 rounds at +105 (added at -130)
"I'm going to pick uh Waldo in this spot but no I'm not betting this guy he seems super super green that minus 200 it's it's kind of risky Biz"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Daniel Levi picks Acosta, but is not impressed enough to lay the -195 price. He views Vanderaa as a fighter who doesn't belong in the UFC (1-5 record) and likes to fade him. He acknowledges Acosta's boxing background and power but notes he is still green. He passes on betting but picks Acosta to win.

"Pure pick is Acosta I just didn't like the price tag on it so it's a pass from a betting perspective."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Jacob picks Waldo but is not confident due to heavyweight volatility. He thinks Waldo will chase a first-round finish, but if Vanderaa survives, he could grind out a decision. Jacob suggests a Waldo first-round play but advises staying away.

Waldo first round play
"my pick is Waldo I feel semi-confident about it"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Acosta is a complete fighter who can keep up with Vanderaa's pace and push him against the cage. Vanderaa is on a four-fight losing streak and struggles when pressured. However, paying -195 on a Contender Series heavyweight is risky. The over 1.5 rounds prop is a better bet as both fighters tend to clinch and grapple, eating clock.

Over 1.5 rounds (-120 to -135)
"the over one and a half will likely be getting my action this weekend"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Paul also picks Waldo, noting his boxing base, LFA title win, and training in Arizona. He acknowledges Vanderaa could win if he implements a high-volume, forward-pressure game plan as he did against Justin Tafa, but doubts Vanderaa's consistency and fight IQ. Paul mentions the over 1.5 rounds as a potential play but is not fully committed.

Over 1.5 rounds (mentioned as a potential play)
"yeah I gotta go Waldo as well greasy heavyweight fight so do you want a ton of exposure on it no but uh yeah I don't actually don't mind this guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

The MMA Guru picks Waldo Cortes Acosta over Jared Vanderaa, calling it a no-brainer. He believes Acosta is too dangerous early for Vanderaa, who makes poor decisions and is coming off a KO loss on short turnaround. He notes Acosta's power and regional win over Thomas Peterson, and predicts Acosta will catch Vanderaa swinging wildly and win by first-round KO.

"no-brainer here sure there's a chance at an upset but I am gonna have to go with Waldo Cortez Acosta"
LOSS vs Chase Sherman
TKO (punches) R3 3:10 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chase Sherman 0 109 of 266 40% 109 of 267 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 1 137 of 235 58% 137 of 235 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chase Sherman 0 29 of 92 31% 29 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 46 of 70 65% 46 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Chase Sherman 0 44 of 102 43% 44 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 40 of 81 49% 40 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Chase Sherman 0 36 of 72 50% 36 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 1 51 of 84 60% 51 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chase Sherman 109 of 266 40% 76 of 224 18 of 25 15 of 17 108 of 265 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 137 of 235 58% 86 of 175 32 of 39 19 of 21 134 of 231 3 of 3 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chase Sherman 29 of 92 31% 15 of 75 6 of 9 8 of 8 29 of 92 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 46 of 70 65% 21 of 43 17 of 19 8 of 8 46 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Chase Sherman 44 of 102 43% 34 of 87 6 of 9 4 of 6 44 of 102 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 40 of 81 49% 26 of 62 7 of 12 7 of 7 40 of 81 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Chase Sherman 36 of 72 50% 27 of 62 6 of 7 3 of 3 35 of 71 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 51 of 84 60% 39 of 70 8 of 8 4 of 6 48 of 80 3 of 3 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Angelo picks Jared Vanderaa, noting his volume striking and size advantage. He mentions Vanderaa has wrestling in his back pocket and should cruise to a decision if he fights like he did against Andre Arlovski. He acknowledges Chase Sherman's high output but points out Sherman is very hittable, absorbing over 6 significant strikes per minute. He thinks the fight is closer than the odds suggest but favors Vanderaa.

"Jared bandera is the pick... this should be a pick and fight the odds are heavily favoring jared van dara I think this is closer to even."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Big Brady leans toward Jared Vanderaa, emphasizing that if Vanderaa takes the fight to the mat, he will win easily due to Sherman's terrible ground game. He notes that Sherman has no striking defense and poor cardio, while Vanderaa has better cardio and defensive responsibility. However, he questions whether Vanderaa will actually attempt takedowns, as he has zero takedown attempts in his last five fights. He predicts a first-round ground-and-pound TKO if Vanderaa wrestles.

first round ground and pound TKO
"jared bandera first round grounded pound victory"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Cody thinks Vanderaa will weather Sherman's early storm and then take over with volume and pressure. He notes Sherman tends to fade in the second and third rounds. He's not confident because both are low-level heavyweights, but he leans Vanderaa due to output and durability.

Mentions Vanderaa over 51.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.
"vandarin not going to take him down early i bet what he needs to do is weather the early storm and just continuously put on pressure continuously come forward wear on him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Jul 9, 2022 (fight day)

The host does not discuss this fight in detail. He only mentions it in passing when asked about fights likely to go to decision, listing Sherman vs Vanderaa as one possibility. No pick or bet is made.

"Sherman vanderaa"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Paul thinks this is a dogger pass situation but picks Sherman for the show. He notes that Vanderaa has poor fight IQ and that Sherman could win if he keeps it standing. He's not confident but sees value at plus money.

"another spot i think is dog or pass but like i i don't think i can build up the courage after coming off of like such a horrible week last week to bet uh chase sherman at plus 175 but …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Jul 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

The Guru calls Jared Vanderaa a lock, citing his size advantage and better grappling compared to Sherman. He notes Vanderaa's decent performance against Arlovski and Romanov, while Sherman is small and lacks grappling. He predicts a TKO or submission in the second round.

TKO or submission in the second round
"Jared Vanderaa is the lock."
LOSS vs Aleksei Oleinik
Submission (scarf hold) R1 3:39 · UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · Apr 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aleksei Oleinik 0 8 of 22 36% 8 of 22 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:44
Jared Vanderaa 0 15 of 40 37% 23 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aleksei Oleinik 0 8 of 22 36% 8 of 22 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:44
Jared Vanderaa 0 15 of 40 37% 23 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aleksei Oleinik 8 of 22 36% 3 of 16 2 of 3 3 of 3 8 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 15 of 40 37% 13 of 37 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 30 1 of 1 7 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aleksei Oleinik 8 of 22 36% 3 of 16 2 of 3 3 of 3 8 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 15 of 40 37% 13 of 37 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 30 1 of 1 7 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2022 (10 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

Angelo picks Aleksei Oleinik despite his age (45). He notes that Oleinik is a submission threat anywhere on the ground, and that Latifi's low-volume wrestling style plays into Oleinik's strengths. He also mentions Latifi's recent illness and doubts about his conditioning.

"i like alexionic i liked him two weeks ago i like him now i think alexia olenek pulls off the upset here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

Big Brady picks Aleksei Oleinik to win by first-round submission. He notes Vanderaa has terrible takedown defense (20%) and striking defense (43%), and is coming in on short notice. Oleinik has good takedown accuracy and can take Vanderaa down or pull guard, then submit him quickly.

first round submission
"give me alexia olynyk to win by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Cody picks Vanderaa, arguing that Oleinik is too old and undersized. He notes Oleinik's cardio fades quickly and that Vanderaa has a 50-pound weight advantage. Cody thinks Vanderaa's volume and durability will overwhelm Oleinik in the later rounds. He expects Vanderaa by TKO, possibly after surviving an early submission attempt.

Vanderaa by TKO
"i got jared vander i got jared vander after the first round and i would like to save andra by tko"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Apr 8, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

Levi acknowledges Oleinik's age (turning 45) but notes heavyweights can have resurgences. He does not see UFC-caliber skills in Vanderaa, who has lost to better guys. He thinks Oleinik could get an Ezekiel choke, but is hesitant because of the age factor. He picks Oleinik but advises caution.

"i just can't pick jaren vader in a ufc fight period"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

I lean Vanderaa because he can keep Oleinik on the outside with his striking and movement, especially in the bigger cage. He's not a big knockout puncher but can use volume and leg kicks. If he can avoid takedowns for 12 minutes, he can cruise to a decision. However, it's a volatile fight and he's on short notice.

"The pick here is going to be Vanderaa slight lean towards him... if he's able to go out there and give us a solid 12 minutes without getting taken down I could see him cruising to a decision victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

Paul picks Oleinik at plus money, believing the old man has one more win. He notes Vanderaa's poor takedown defense, as seen against Romanov and Spivak. Paul thinks Oleinik can get takedowns and find his signature scarf hold or Ezekiel choke. He acknowledges Oleinik's cardio issues but thinks he can finish early. He has already bet Oleinik at +100.

Oleinik by submission +165
"i think the old man oh linux got another one in the tank cody i bet i'm at plus 100"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

The MMA Guru picks Aleksei Oleinik, expressing disdain for Jared Vanderaa's physique and performance. He expects Oleinik to get a first-round submission, possibly by arm triangle or rear-naked choke, citing Vanderaa's grappling issues and Oleinik's full camp.

first round submission prediction
"i'm gonna go with alexi olynyk here jared vandira is garbage"
LOSS vs Andrei Arlovski
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Feb 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andrei Arlovski 0 64 of 133 48% 71 of 140 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 70 of 156 44% 102 of 190 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andrei Arlovski 0 30 of 55 54% 32 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 23 of 58 39% 30 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
2 Andrei Arlovski 0 20 of 44 45% 23 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 19 of 42 45% 33 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:17
3 Andrei Arlovski 0 14 of 34 41% 16 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 28 of 56 50% 39 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andrei Arlovski 64 of 133 48% 40 of 100 19 of 26 5 of 7 60 of 128 4 of 5 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 70 of 156 44% 30 of 110 24 of 29 16 of 17 55 of 134 15 of 22 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andrei Arlovski 30 of 55 54% 18 of 42 8 of 9 4 of 4 29 of 54 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 23 of 58 39% 13 of 46 6 of 8 4 of 4 19 of 53 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Andrei Arlovski 20 of 44 45% 15 of 33 5 of 10 0 of 1 18 of 41 2 of 3 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 19 of 42 45% 6 of 27 11 of 13 2 of 2 15 of 35 4 of 7 0 of 0
3 Andrei Arlovski 14 of 34 41% 7 of 25 6 of 7 1 of 2 13 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 28 of 56 50% 11 of 37 7 of 8 10 of 11 21 of 46 7 of 10 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Angelo picks Arlovski, expecting a three-round kickboxing match where Arlovski's footwork and speed allow him to outpoint Vanderaa. He compares it to Arlovski's fight against Carlos Felipe and thinks Arlovski will jab his way to a decision win. He warns not to sleep on Vanderaa, who is better than his matchups suggest.

"i think andre olofsky out points jared van dara i think he just jab jab jabs his way to a three-round decision win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Big Brady believes Arlovski is the more skilled fighter despite being 42. He notes Arlovski has improved his striking defense and changed his style to be more conservative. He criticizes Vanderaa's 20% takedown defense and 39% striking defense, calling him a walking punching bag. Brady thinks Arlovski will win a decision, as he hasn't had a finish since 2015. He sees no clear path to victory for Vanderaa.

Arlovski by decision
"give me andre alaska to win and give me arlofsky to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Cody picks Vanderaa as an underdog, citing Arlovski's age (43) and low output. He notes Vanderaa has a good chin and has shown volume in fights. He thinks Vanderaa can outwork Arlovski over three rounds, especially if he pressures.

"i'll go vandara and i know it's not it's definitely not a sexy pick"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Daniel Levi picks Andrei Arlovski, stating he is much faster and can fight for three rounds. He notes that Jared Vanderaa is slow and plodding, and that Arlovski's volume and boxing will win him the fight. Levi expects Arlovski to win a decision, as Vanderaa is durable but not a takedown threat.

"i'm gonna go with arlovsky though man i think he's way faster"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Vanderaa is a solid striker with good combinations and forward pressure. Arlovski is an aging point-fighter who has faced low-output opponents recently. Vanderaa should win exchanges and has the power to hurt Arlovski. Arlovski's durability hasn't been tested by someone with Vanderaa's combination punching. Vanderaa is the dog of the night.

Vanderaa by KO in round 2; moneyline is the main play
"he's easily my dog of the night for this card i got two units on him at plus 140 already i think he's a great spot and i think he's going to pull off the upside here against the aging …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Paul thinks Arlovski is the more technical fighter and that Vanderaa doesn't have fight-ending power. He notes Arlovski has been winning decisions lately and expects a similar low-volume affair. He acknowledges Arlovski's age but believes he can edge out another win.

"i think andre is the more technical fighter all the way around"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

The MMA Guru picks Andrei Arlovski by decision, citing his veteran striking and experience. He views Vanderaa as a bottom-feeder who takes too much damage and expects Arlovski to pick him apart.

unanimous decision 30-27
"i'm gonna go valofsky here again"
TKO (punches) R2 4:43 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · Oct 09, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexandr Romanov 0 56 of 78 71% 78 of 103 5 of 7 71% 0 0 6:31
Jared Vanderaa 0 13 of 23 56% 19 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexandr Romanov 0 9 of 20 45% 10 of 21 4 of 5 80% 0 0 2:05
Jared Vanderaa 0 13 of 21 61% 16 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexandr Romanov 0 47 of 58 81% 68 of 82 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:26
Jared Vanderaa 0 0 of 2 0% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexandr Romanov 56 of 78 71% 48 of 66 6 of 10 2 of 2 11 of 22 0 of 0 45 of 56
Jared Vanderaa 13 of 23 56% 4 of 12 2 of 3 7 of 8 10 of 19 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexandr Romanov 9 of 20 45% 6 of 13 1 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 13 of 21 61% 4 of 10 2 of 3 7 of 8 10 of 17 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Alexandr Romanov 47 of 58 81% 42 of 53 5 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 45 of 56
Jared Vanderaa 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Angelo picks Alexandr Romanov but feels it's a trap at minus 400. He notes Romanov's wrestling and power but recalls his less dominant performance against Juan Espino. He bet the over 1.5 rounds at plus money and the more more on Monkey Knife Fight, expecting the fight to last past the first round and a half.

Over 1.5 rounds (1 unit at plus money); more more Monkey Knife Fight
"I did bet the over on the rounds. One and a half rounds. ... I put a full unit on the over on round. I think I got it at plus money."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Big Brady is very confident in Romanov, highlighting his incredible wrestling strength and ability to take down and finish opponents. He notes Vanderaa has 0% takedown defense and was easily taken down by Sergey Spivak. Brady believes Romanov is stronger and more dangerous on top, and predicts a second-round finish, either by submission or knockout. He sees no path to victory for Vanderaa except Romanov gassing out.

second round finish
"give me alexander romanov to win by i want to say second round finish"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody picks Romanov but expresses concerns about his cardio and ring IQ. He notes Romanov's athleticism and sumo background, but worries about his training situation in Moldova. He expects Romanov to take Vanderaa down and finish early, but if it goes past the first round, Vanderaa's improved striking and cardio could be a problem.

first round TKO
"romanov takes him down the first round tko's them and we go home happy"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Daniel Levi is confident Alexandr Romanov will dominate with takedowns and finish Vanderaa on the mat, likely by submission or ground and pound. He notes Vanderaa's toughness and volume but believes he lacks the grappling to compete. His only concern is Romanov's cardio if he expends too much energy early, but he still expects a finish.

submission or ground and pound finish
"i think romano is going to take this guy to sky city i think he's going to give him some frequent flyer miles and i think he's going to submit him with something"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Jacob picks Romanov but agrees it feels like a trap. He thinks Romanov should dominate but wouldn't touch the minus 400. He likes the over 1.5 rounds bet and will play it with Angelo. He notes Romanov's terrifying ground and pound but thinks Jared Vanderaa is tough enough to withstand early attacks.

Over 1.5 rounds (will play with Angelo)
"I love that one and a half. I'm going to go on it and play that as well. I think I I completely agree that even if Romanov kind of dominates, maybe takes him down, I think Jared's tough enough …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The host picks Romanov but with hesitation due to his questionable gas tank. He notes that if Romanov doesn't get an early finish, he could fade, and Vanderaa has a grappling background and good cardio. He compares Romanov to Spivak, who beat Vanderaa, but acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues. He predicts a second-round TKO for Romanov but plans to hedge with Vanderaa props.

Romanov second round TKO; Vanderaa round three +2000; Vanderaa by KO +600 (hedge)
"I will go romanov second round tko but i will hedge a little bit with that round three vandal or even that vandera ko at plus 600."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Paul picks Romanov, noting Vanderaa's lack of elite skills. He acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues and questionable performance against Espino, but believes Vanderaa is a step down in competition. He expects Romanov to get takedowns and grind out a win, though the price is steep.

"he should roll here against fandura it's a it's an easy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The MMA Guru picks Alexandr Romanov to win by first-round submission via forearm choke. He believes Romanov's grappling is superior to Vanderaa's, citing Vanderaa's loss to Sergey Spivak. He notes Romanov's takedown ability and finishing threat.

Romanov by first-round submission (forearm choke)
"i think he'll get the finish here... maybe go for like a first round finish for alexander romanov he's got that forearm choke"
WIN vs Justin Tafa
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · May 22, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Vanderaa 0 74 of 147 50% 74 of 147 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Justin Tafa 0 121 of 248 48% 141 of 269 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Vanderaa 0 15 of 38 39% 15 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Tafa 0 31 of 64 48% 31 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jared Vanderaa 0 26 of 47 55% 26 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Tafa 0 47 of 90 52% 60 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
3 Jared Vanderaa 0 33 of 62 53% 33 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Justin Tafa 0 43 of 94 45% 50 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Vanderaa 74 of 147 50% 35 of 102 32 of 38 7 of 7 70 of 143 4 of 4 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 121 of 248 48% 64 of 181 34 of 43 23 of 24 104 of 226 17 of 22 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Vanderaa 15 of 38 39% 9 of 31 4 of 5 2 of 2 14 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 31 of 64 48% 14 of 44 7 of 9 10 of 11 27 of 58 4 of 6 0 of 0
2 Jared Vanderaa 26 of 47 55% 14 of 33 7 of 9 5 of 5 24 of 45 2 of 2 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 47 of 90 52% 26 of 66 12 of 15 9 of 9 39 of 79 8 of 11 0 of 0
3 Jared Vanderaa 33 of 62 53% 12 of 38 21 of 24 0 of 0 32 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 43 of 94 45% 24 of 71 15 of 19 4 of 4 38 of 89 5 of 5 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 18, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Big Brady picks the underdog Vanderaa, reasoning that if Vanderaa can get takedowns, he has a huge advantage on the ground with submissions and ground-and-pound, while Tafa is lost on his back. He acknowledges Tafa's striking power could knock Vanderaa out early, but believes Vanderaa's path to victory via grappling is viable. He expects an early finish.

Vanderaa by ground-and-pound, first round
"i'm gonna pick the dog here in vendera to get those takedowns to get that ground upon victory"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Cody Saftic picks Justin Tafa, citing Tafa's striking advantage and Vanderaa's hittability. He notes that Vanderaa is slow, flat-footed, and defensively unsound, and that Tafa has shown improvement in his last fight against Carlos Felipe. Saftic believes Tafa will get a knockout within the first round and a half, but acknowledges that if it goes longer, Vanderaa could capitalize with his ground-and-pound. He suggests live betting Vanderaa if Tafa fades.

Tafa by knockout, live bet Vanderaa if Tafa fades
"my pick's going to be topha tafa and i think he should be able to get this one done by knockout but toff has got a round and a half to get this thing done by knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 20, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa, believing Tafa's striking power and improving takedown defense will be too much for Vanderaa. He notes that Vanderaa is a tough guy but a walking punching bag, and that Tafa's Samoan kickboxing style with sneaky uppercuts and leg kicks will lead to a first-round knockout. He dismisses Vanderaa's alleged wrestling credentials.

first round knockout
"i think justin tafa is going to knock him out in the first round so i'm going tafa here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Matt picks Justin Tafa by second-round knockout, but with low confidence. He notes Tafa showed improved patience and leg kicks in his last fight against Carlos Felipe, which changed his perception of Tafa. However, he acknowledges Vanderaa could take a grapple-heavy approach and be successful, so he is not trusting either fighter heavily. He sees this as a good matchup for Tafa to find a knockout, but not a lock play.

Justin Tafa by KO/TKO round 2
"i'll go justin tafa via second round knockout in this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Paul Shaughnessy also picks Tafa but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Tafa is only 4-2 and has shown inconsistency, but believes he is the better striker and that Vanderaa's wrestling advantage may not be enough. He suggests passing on the moneyline and instead looking for a better price on Tafa by knockout, or live betting.

Tafa by knockout (plus money), pass on moneyline
"i hate to keep saying past pass pass so i i will make a pick it will be justin tafa but you know it could get a better price on it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 22, 2021 (fight day)
Justin Tafa

The MMA Guru predicts Justin Tafa will win by first-round KO via uppercut. He dismisses Vanderaa's wrestling as garbage and expects Tafa to chop at the calf early, slowing Vanderaa down. Then Tafa will catch him against the cage with an uppercut, leading to a TKO finish.

"i'm going first round ko for justin tafar here"
LOSS vs Serghei Spivac
TKO (punches) R2 4:32 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Feb 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Serghei Spivac 0 51 of 72 70% 107 of 135 3 of 3 100% 0 0 8:29
Jared Vanderaa 0 13 of 24 54% 27 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Serghei Spivac 0 15 of 20 75% 38 of 46 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:26
Jared Vanderaa 0 10 of 15 66% 18 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Serghei Spivac 0 36 of 52 69% 69 of 89 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:03
Jared Vanderaa 0 3 of 9 33% 9 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Serghei Spivac 51 of 72 70% 51 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0 7 of 17 0 of 0 44 of 55
Jared Vanderaa 13 of 24 54% 8 of 19 3 of 3 2 of 2 11 of 22 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Serghei Spivac 15 of 20 75% 15 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 9 0 of 0 10 of 11
Jared Vanderaa 10 of 15 66% 5 of 10 3 of 3 2 of 2 8 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Serghei Spivac 36 of 52 69% 36 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 34 of 44
Jared Vanderaa 3 of 9 33% 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Daniel Levi praises Serghei Spivac's tough competition in the UFC, having faced Walt Harris, Tai Tuivasa, Marcin Tybura, and Carlos Felipe. He believes Vanderaa is the first 'softball' of Spivac's UFC run and expects Spivac to handle him decisively. Levi notes Spivac's versatility, whether by head kick, schoolyard headlock, or grinding out a decision. He is confident in Spivac's skills and training at Extreme Couture.

"i got uh the moldovan sergey spivak to win this fight shaq"
Justin Tafa - Fight History
CANCEL vs Louie Sutherland
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

Angelo picks Louie Sutherland over Justin Tafa, reasoning that Sutherland is more well-rounded with movement and takedowns, while Tafa is a one-dimensional striker. He acknowledges Tafa's power and Sutherland's susceptibility to being hit, but believes Sutherland's range management and ability to mix in takedowns will be the difference. He compares Sutherland's movement to Jared Vanderaa's win over Tafa.

"I'm going to pick Louis Sutherland here. Like he is the more well-rounded guy. Justin Tafa is by far the better striker when it comes to pure technique. Probably the more powerful striker as well. And Louisie gets hit. So …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

Big Brady leans toward Louie Sutherland to win by decision. He is disgusted by the fight quality but thinks Sutherland's cardio, clinch work, and durability could be factors if Tafa doesn't get an early KO. He notes Tafa fades in later rounds.

"I'm leaning ever so slightly Louis Sutherland. But if you bet on this fight, you probably need to go to prison."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

Cody leans toward Sutherland, citing his durability and momentum on a four-fight winning streak. He notes Tafa has durability issues and has been outworked in longer fights. He thinks Sutherland's reach and ability to outwork Tafa if it goes past the first round give him an edge, but calls it a greasy 50/50 fight.

"I'm off the Justin Tough of bandwagon altogether. And for Louisie, again, not a world beater by any stretch."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

Connor also picks Sutherland, emphasizing Tafa's terrible record and inability to win outside the first round. He notes that Sutherland has never been knocked out and is capable of throwing power combos and low kicks. Connor thinks Sutherland's pressure and durability will overwhelm Tafa, who is purely a reactive striker with no control.

"I think I have to pick Louis Sutherland because you know what hasn't happened to Louis Sutherland so far in his career? It's never been knocked out."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)

James does not make a clear pick, stating he would lean toward the underdog Sutherland but is not confident. He notes Sutherland has a cardio advantage and could win via wrestling, but doubts Sutherland will implement that game plan. He prefers to pass on the fight or consider an over 1.5 rounds prop.

over 1.5 rounds
"I tend to lean that side just because he's an underdog. I feel like in this fight, you just bet the underdog. But I'm most certainly going to be passing on this fight, boys."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

The host is not a big fan of Tafa's one-dimensional style but thinks this fight suits it. He expects Tafa to shuck off takedown attempts, get back to his feet if taken down, and eventually land big shots to knock Sutherland out cold.

win by knockout
"I am not a big fan of Toffa given his one-dimensional approach to fights, but this is the type of fight for that one-dimensional style to play out and actually be successful. Look for Tafa to shuck off most of …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

The Guru picks Louie Sutherland (Louie Sutherland) as a hate pick against Justin Tafa, whom he criticizes as overweight and overrated. He believes Sutherland's power and Bellator experience will lead to a first-round knockout, as Tafa's career is on the line.

first round KO
"I'm going to go with Luis Southerntherland getting this one done."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

Zane picks Sutherland, noting that Tafa is a reactive striker who throws one big punch at a time and has poor durability. He believes Sutherland's willingness to blitz with power combos and his ability to go past the first round give him the edge. Zane points out that Tafa has never won a fight that went past two minutes, while Sutherland has experience in longer fights.

"I think I have to pick Louis Sutherland because you know what hasn't happened to Louis Sutherland so far in his career? It's never been knocked out."
KO R1 0:35 · UFC 312: du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · Feb 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Tafa 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tallison Teixeira 1 8 of 9 88% 9 of 10 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Tafa 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tallison Teixeira 1 8 of 9 88% 9 of 10 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Tafa 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tallison Teixeira 8 of 9 88% 5 of 6 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 3 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Tafa 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tallison Teixeira 8 of 9 88% 5 of 6 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 3 4 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Justin Tafa vs. Tallison Teixeira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Teixeira (-135), Tafa (+114)

Round 1
Way high up on the pay-per-view main card, two heavyweights extremely low on the totem pole get this preferred status, likely because someone’s block is about to get knocked off. A combined 100% finish rate, with most of the stoppages from these big men coming in Round 1, means that referee Rich Mitchell should be ready to step in as soon as the opening horn cries. Tafa (7-4, 1 NC; 4-4, 1 NC UFC) recently suffered his first loss in years, while the taller Teixeira (7-0, 0-0 UFC) has never fought beyond 4:40 of a pro fight. The large fists are bopped together before slugging, and Teixeira immediately flashes signs of him kicking. Tafa keeps his guard up to block a powerful head kick that still knocks him back a step, and he adjusts his shorts. Teixeira sets up a right hand to shoot in for a takedown, and he pushes Tafa against the wall in search of the level change. Standing Tafa up, the Brazilian rips a knee to the body and up top with an elbow square on the nose. Tafa collapses like a house of cards, and Teixeira drums his man out with four ferocious punches to the side of the head. Mitchell gets between the two heavyweights to step in, and Teixeira walks off and lets off a booming shout. Tafa looks to Mitchell confusedly, and he complains that he did not even have a moment to defend himself before the fight was called. Just like that, the UFC has another massive heavyweight to contend with, one that still has a 100% stoppage rate with all eight wins in the first round.

The Official Result
Tallison Teixeira def. Justin Tafa R1 0:35 via TKO (Knee to the Body and Elbow)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Big Brady calls this a coin flip, as both heavyweights want to stand and bang. He is concerned about Teixeira's poor striking defense, as he was eating shots from Arthur Lopez. He thinks Tafa has a chance to land a big shot and get a first-round knockout. Brady picks Tafa as the underdog.

"give me Justin tafa by first round KO"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tallison Teixeira

Connor also picks Teixeira but is very skeptical. He likes that Teixeira has clever boxing ideas but lacks basic technical fundamentals. He notes that Teixeira is only 25 and a physical monster, which gives him advantages. He thinks Teixeira is good enough to beat Tafa now but will likely lose to more experienced fighters later. He sees Tafa as a counter puncher who needs opponents to make mistakes, and Teixeira might do that, but he still picks Teixeira.

Same odds as Zane.
"I think he's in the right place where I'm going to pick him to beat Justin Tafa."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tallison Teixeira

Teixeira is a 6'7" BJJ black belt who has leaned on striking but would be ill-advised to strike with Tafa. He will look to get the fight to the ground, find a dominant position, and open up a submission or ground-and-pound knockout. The official prediction is Teixeira by submission.

submission
"my official prediction will be to Shara by submission"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tallison Teixeira

Zane picks Teixeira, noting his size advantage and that he is making real informed decisions as a fighter, even if raw. He thinks Teixeira can neutralize Tafa's two dangerous punches and stick him at range. He is skeptical of banana-shaped heavyweights but sees Teixeira as tough and able to take a shot. He acknowledges Tafa could knock him out, but believes Teixeira's composure and developing skills give him the edge.

Teixeira opened at -153, currently -133; Tafa opened at +137, currently +119. Zane says odds are reasonable.
"I think he can kind of neutralize Tafa's two dangerous punches and stick him out of range."
LOSS vs Karl Williams
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Mar 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karl Williams 0 40 of 61 65% 123 of 176 7 of 12 58% 1 0 10:31
Justin Tafa 0 21 of 43 48% 27 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karl Williams 0 12 of 16 75% 35 of 51 4 of 4 100% 0 0 3:58
Justin Tafa 0 6 of 12 50% 6 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Karl Williams 0 20 of 34 58% 54 of 81 1 of 2 50% 1 0 2:45
Justin Tafa 0 9 of 15 60% 14 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Karl Williams 0 8 of 11 72% 34 of 44 2 of 6 33% 0 0 3:48
Justin Tafa 0 6 of 16 37% 7 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karl Williams 40 of 61 65% 26 of 47 7 of 7 7 of 7 19 of 29 3 of 4 18 of 28
Justin Tafa 21 of 43 48% 15 of 36 6 of 7 0 of 0 18 of 39 2 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karl Williams 12 of 16 75% 7 of 11 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 7 3 of 3 3 of 6
Justin Tafa 6 of 12 50% 4 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Karl Williams 20 of 34 58% 15 of 29 4 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 17 0 of 0 10 of 17
Justin Tafa 9 of 15 60% 5 of 10 4 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Karl Williams 8 of 11 72% 4 of 7 1 of 1 3 of 3 3 of 5 0 of 1 5 of 5
Justin Tafa 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 13 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Angelo picks Justin Tafa as a low confidence underdog, having placed a quarter-unit bet at +220. He overcorrects from Karl Williams' poor performance against Chase Sherman, where Williams' legs were chewed up and takedowns were ineffective. He believes Tafa's leg kicks, takedown defense, and power can win if it becomes a striking match.

quarter unit bet at +220
"I am actually going to pick Justin taffa in this fight and Yeah Carl may show up and be the prospect that he's supposed to be"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Big Brady picks Karl Williams, citing his wrestling advantage and ability to take Tafa down at will. He notes Tafa has a puncher's chance but has terrible losses and likely offers little off his back. He expects Williams to control the fight on the ground and win a decision.

"I'm kind of leaning Williams here um to get takedowns get control time Williams is a good wrestler a very good wrestler she'd have no problem getting takedowns here against tafa"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Cody believes Williams' wrestling will be the key, as he can take down bigger opponents and control the fight. He notes that Tafa's 100% takedown defense is misleading because he hasn't faced strong wrestlers. Cody expects Williams to get takedowns early and wear Tafa down, possibly getting a late finish.

"I feel like Carl Williams gets those takedowns gets them early and often wears them down and maybe gets like a late second or early third round finish."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Daniel Vreeland picks Karl Williams, emphasizing his wrestling advantage and Tafa's inability to get up from takedowns. He notes Williams can win by decision, ground-and-pound TKO, or submission, while Tafa's only path is a knockout. He warns Williams not to test his standup but believes one takedown could end the fight.

"I really do think Carl I mean I really do think Kyle it could be a one takedown situation and the fight might be over shortly after"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Tafa has massive power in his hands and 100% takedown defense (though limited attempts). Williams relies on grappling and grinding, but Tafa's power should make him pay on the feet. Williams may have early grappling success, but he is not a finisher and will slow down. Tafa should find a knockout in the second or third round. The knockout prop at +185 is noted.

Tafa by KO at +185
"I'm going to go with the underdog heavyweight here and TAA for him to... eventually come back and find The Knockout in the second or third round... give me Justin TAA and TAA by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Paul calls Williams the play of the week, citing his speed and explosiveness as a 205-pounder moving up. He highlights Williams' wrestling credentials, including takedowns against Jimmy Lawson and Lucas Brzozowski. Paul acknowledges the Chase Sherman fight as a concern but believes Williams' plan B striking is sufficient. He trusts Williams to implement his game plan.

"My gut tells me Williams is the play of the week top ticket load up this is easy path of Victory."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Karl Williams

The MMA Guru picks Karl Williams over Justin Tafa, expressing frustration with 'fat' heavyweights. He likes Williams' takedowns and thinks he can take Tafa down and ground-and-pound him. He notes Tafa's recent injury and Williams' training at top gyms. He predicts a TKO via ground and pound.

TKO via ground and pound
"I'm going with KL Williams over Justin Taffer... TKO to ground and pound early"
WIN vs Austen Lane
KO (punches) R1 1:22 · UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Sep 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Tafa 1 11 of 14 78% 11 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Austen Lane 0 7 of 14 50% 7 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Tafa 1 11 of 14 78% 11 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Austen Lane 0 7 of 14 50% 7 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Tafa 11 of 14 78% 9 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 3 6 of 9 0 of 0 5 of 5
Austen Lane 7 of 14 50% 3 of 9 1 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Tafa 11 of 14 78% 9 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 3 6 of 9 0 of 0 5 of 5
Austen Lane 7 of 14 50% 3 of 9 1 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Angelo picks Justin Tafa, believing his power will be too much. He notes that Tafa has a great chin and solid kicks, and his big legs and hips make him hard to take down. Austen Lane needs to fight a perfect fight, dancing around and jabbing like Jared Vanderaa, but Angelo doesn't see that happening. He expects Tafa to defend takedowns and knock out Lane.

"I think taffa's power is going to be too big I think his big fat ass legs and hips are going to be too hard to get to the ground so Taff is going to defend a couple of sloppy …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Big Brady confidently picks Justin Tafa, citing his power and durability advantage. He notes Lane has three losses all by first-round knockout. He thinks Tafa will find his range and knock out Lane again. He predicts a first-round knockout.

"give me Justin Tafa I'll take Justin tawa to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Austen Lane

Cody picks Austen Lane as a value underdog, arguing that this is a 50-50 fight and Lane has the better athleticism, speed, and cardio. He criticizes Tafa's level of competition and notes that Tafa is a one-round fighter with poor discipline. Cody believes Lane's physical advantages and improvement over time give him a legitimate chance to win.

Lane by KO (implied); three-to-one shoe bet on Lane
"I think Austin Lane can win this fight 50 of the time and he happens to have the ball the value"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa but calls it a 'dog or pass' situation. He notes that the first fight ended in an eye poke and now Lane has to travel to Australia. He says his breakdown hasn't changed and he still picks Tafa, but with caution.

Odds mentioned: Tafa minus 200, Lane plus 170. Levi calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.
"I'm gonna pick Justin taffa I think his dog or pass though."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Lucrative James is confident Justin Tafa will win, likely by knockout. He notes that Austen Lane is very hittable and that Tafa has fast, precise hands. He dismisses Lane's paths to victory (catching a big shot or takedown) as low probability. James feels the extra preparation time doesn't change his view, and he expects a similar outcome to their first fight that ended in a no contest.

"I'm picking Justin tougher here without too much cause for concern I think he's going to get a knockout I'm pretty confident to be honest"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

In their first fight, Tafa closed distance and landed a big shot before an eye poke ended it. Lane has issues dealing with big strikes from power punchers. Tafa should crash the pocket and land a knockout. The KO prop at -165 is preferred over the moneyline.

Tafa by KO at -165
"I'm going to take tafa and tafa to win this fight by knockout minus 165 on him to win by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Paul picks Tafa but is hesitant, acknowledging that Tafa is not a high-level fighter but that Austen Lane is one of the worst heavyweights in the UFC. He notes that Tafa has the hometown crowd and that his brother's recent win might help. Paul admits he doesn't like the -200 price but sees Tafa as the more likely winner.

"I think Austin Lane is one of the worst guys in the heavyweight division so I think it's got to be tough"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Austen Lane

The MMA Guru picks Austen Lane as an underdog over Justin Tafa. He notes that in their first fight, Lane was winning before an accidental eye poke led to a no contest. He believes the eye poke will mentally affect Tafa, making him hesitant. Lane is on a six-fight win streak, all finishes, and is a lean 6'6" with 80" reach, while Tafa is shorter and less athletic. He thinks Lane has multiple paths to victory and could have a run in the division.

"I'm gonna go Austin Lane"
LOSS vs Austen Lane
No Contest (accidental eye poke) R1 0:29 · UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria · Jun 24, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Austen Lane 0 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Tafa 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Austen Lane 0 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Tafa 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Austen Lane 3 of 5 60% 1 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Austen Lane 3 of 5 60% 1 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Angelo picks Justin Tafa, citing his incredible chin and power, and being almost impossible to take down. He notes Tafa should keep the fight standing and land big power. However, he acknowledges the fight could look like Tafa's loss to Jared Vanderaa if Austen Lane dances around and jabs his way to a decision.

"Tava should be able to keep this standing and just land that big Power so he's gonna be the pick here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Big Brady picks Justin Tafa, believing he is a much better striker. He notes Lane's poor striking defense and history of being knocked out. He has a concern that if Lane gets on top, he could finish Tafa due to Tafa's lack of ground experience. However, he expects Tafa to knock Lane out in the first round.

first round knockout
"I am going to take tafa to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Cody picks Tafa, citing his toughness, durability, and experience in the UFC. He notes Lane's losses to low-level competition and thinks Tafa's leg kicks and inside fighting will be key. He acknowledges the danger but believes Tafa gets the win.

Tafa round 1 KO at plus 200 mentioned; under 1.5 rounds considered.
"I think he's tougher more durable has the experience has a number of fights in the UFC."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Connor picks Tafa, agreeing with Zane. He describes Lane as a 'mess' with no demonstrated ability to fight disciplined at range. Tafa is a patient puncher who will wait for Lane to make mistakes. Connor notes that Lane's wins are against low-level competition and that he was knocked out by Greg Hardy. He expects Tafa to land a knockout.

"Okay. That makes two of us."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa but with low conviction due to heavyweight volatility. He notes Tafa's power and left hook, but also his greenness and reach disadvantage. He thinks Tafa will clip Lane eventually but is not confident enough to bet. He mentions Lane's reach and experience but sees Tafa as the bigger hitter.

Passing on betting; picks Tafa but no bet.
"I'm picking tafa but it's probably my least least strong conviction on the entire card"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

The host picks Justin Tafa to win by knockout, likely in the first round. He believes Tafa's power will be too much for Lane, who may struggle to maintain distance. He notes Lane's defensive grappling issues and thinks Tafa will land a big shot when Lane crashes the pocket. He also suggests the fight doesn't go to decision as a prop.

fight doesn't go to decision
"give me taffa by knockout probably in the first round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Paul picks Tafa, considering him more skilled and durable. He expects a first-round knockout from either side due to volatility. He mentions Tafa's youth and experience, while Lane is an NFL guy who lost to Greg Hardy. He doesn't love the price but picks Tafa.

Under 1.5 rounds considered; Tafa round 1 KO at plus 150 mentioned.
"I like taffa but I mean expect expect craziness here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

The Guru initially considered picking Austen Lane due to size and athleticism but reversed after remembering Lane got KO'd by Greg Hardy. He calls Lane's opponents 'fat old men' and says Tafa is open but Lane's lack of talent is disqualifying. He predicts Tafa wins by KO as Lane rushes in desperately.

Predicts KO win for Tafa.
"Austin Lane got ko'd by Greg Harding I'm going with Justin tougher you can't get ko'd by Greg Hardy ever and expect me to think that you have any Talent"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Zane picks Tafa, citing Lane's raw technique and poor defense. He notes that Lane is a great athlete but a terrible fighter, with no discipline and a tendency to leave his chin exposed. Tafa is patient and powerful, and Zane expects him to land a clean shot on the tall, defensively lacking Lane. He mentions Lane's loss to Greg Hardy and his record of first-round KOs as evidence of his fragility.

"I definitely have to pick Justin Toffa here."
WIN vs Parker Porter
KO (punch) R1 1:06 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Tafa 1 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Parker Porter 0 7 of 16 43% 7 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Tafa 1 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Parker Porter 0 7 of 16 43% 7 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Tafa 8 of 16 50% 6 of 13 2 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 12 3 of 4 0 of 0
Parker Porter 7 of 16 43% 5 of 13 0 of 1 2 of 2 7 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Tafa 8 of 16 50% 6 of 13 2 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 12 3 of 4 0 of 0
Parker Porter 7 of 16 43% 5 of 13 0 of 1 2 of 2 7 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Angelo picks Parker Porter, defending him against criticism and highlighting his volume striking and footwork. He notes that Justin Tafa has power and a chin but lacks footwork and grappling. He expects Porter to use movement and volume to outpoint Tafa, though he acknowledges the risk of a Tafa knockout. He has a half-unit bet on Porter at +125 and suggests betting on Tafa by KO and Porter by decision as props.

Bet on Tafa by KO and Porter by decision if plus money
"Parker Porter is the pick half a unit money line bet on him at plus 125"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Big Brady calls this a mess of a fight but picks Porter as the minute winner with higher volume and grappling upside. He notes Tafa has power and could knock Porter out, but thinks Porter's cardio and wrestling give him the edge. He predicts a decision win for Porter.

"give me the guy that I feel like and win this fight across 15 minutes give me Parker by by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Cody picks Porter as a dog, citing Tafa's one-dimensional kickboxing and poor performances against Jared Vanderaa. He notes Porter has multiple paths: wrestling takedowns and top control, or volume striking. He mentions Porter's wins over Josh Parisian and Chase Sherman show he can land heavy volume. He thinks Porter by decision is a good prop at +350.

Porter by decision at +350
"I would take Porter to to drop on what you were saying probably Park reporter by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Connor picks Tafa hesitantly, citing his power and athletic potential. He notes that Porter is durable but gets hurt badly in every fight, and Tafa has the power to finish. Connor acknowledges that Porter's pace and volume could overwhelm Tafa if he doesn't land early, but he's willing to take a flyer on Tafa's explosiveness. He also mentions that Tafa has shown flashes of improvement.

"I think i'm gonna take the flyer on justin toffa... I just get the feeling that toffa has the ability to grow by leaps and bounds."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Porter has good footwork, combinations, and a sneaky wrestling game. Tafa has huge power but poor footwork and can be outpointed, as seen against Vandera. Porter can mix in takedowns to control Tafa on the ground. Tafa's takedown defense is untested (only faced two takedown attempts). Porter's durability and cardio should allow him to outwork Tafa over 15 minutes. However, Tafa's power is a constant threat.

"I still think that this is a spot where Parker Porter can go out there and do what he does best makes the martial arts as effortlessly as he does and put together a solid body of work over 15 …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Paul leans toward Porter but is not fully committed. He sees the fight as a low-level heavyweight bout likely going to decision, and considers Porter by decision at +350. He notes Tafa's lack of volume and Porter's ability to outwork him. He may dabble on the decision prop.

Porter by decision at +350
"I can see the argument for Porter... I think this is a low level sloppy heavyweight fight probably goes 15 minutes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

The MMA Guru picks Justin Tafa over Parker Porter, noting Tafa's power and youth. He believes Tafa will catch Porter in a scrappy fight and finish him by KO at the end of round one. He dismisses Porter's wins as unimpressive and notes his age and damage taken.

first round KO
"I'm gonna go with Justin tafa getting this one done via Chao Parker Porter"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Zane picks Porter, citing his consistency and ability to survive early storms. He notes that Porter is a pace fighter who can take a shot and come back, while Tafa is low-output and one-dimensional. Zane acknowledges that Porter will likely get hurt badly, but he trusts Porter's durability and experience to grind out a win. He also mentions that Porter's jab and volume will be key.

"I'll pick parker porter because I don't care that much... I think being a lumbering pace fighter who yes gets hurt but is definitely like... gotten pretty damn good at surviving."
KO (head kick) R1 1:53 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Tafa 1 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
Harry Hunsucker 0 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Tafa 1 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
Harry Hunsucker 0 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Tafa 5 of 10 50% 4 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 2
Harry Hunsucker 5 of 9 55% 2 of 5 1 of 1 2 of 3 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Tafa 5 of 10 50% 4 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 2
Harry Hunsucker 5 of 9 55% 2 of 5 1 of 1 2 of 3 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Angelo picks Justin Tafa but thinks the odds are nuts. He believes Tafa should be a slight favorite around -150, not -400. He notes Tafa's chin is good and he has leg kicks, but Hunsucker is dangerous with his blitzing style. Angelo considers a small sprinkle on Hunsucker because it's heavyweight and both hit hard. He ultimately goes with Tafa but is not confident.

small sprinkle on Harry Hunsucker (mentioned as possibility)
"i'm gonna go top of here but i i want to be as clear as possible these odds are nuts"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Big Brady picks Justin Tafa to win by first-round knockout, citing Hunsucker's terrible gas tank (about 2.5 minutes) and tendency to fold. He notes Tafa's 100% finish rate and leg kick potential. He acknowledges Hunsucker could pull off an upset if he lands early, but expects Tafa to roll through him. He compares it to the Jordan Wright-Silva fight.

first round knockout
"I'm going to take justin toffee here to get the first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Cody is confident in Tafa, citing Hunsucker's poor record and lack of durability. He notes that Hunsucker has never been past the first round and has been knocked out in all his losses. Tafa has shown he can go three rounds and has better striking and cardio. Cody expects Tafa to win by KO early, but he doesn't like the -330 price for betting.

Under 1.5 rounds -165
"I'll pick I'll pick tough up but I'm not betting that"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa to win, but advises caution at -310. He describes Tafa as having a Mark Hunt-like style with a big left hook and good leg kicks. Levi believes Tafa is more durable and has better hands than Hunsucker, who comes to brawl but is less skilled. He expects Tafa to get a first-round knockout, but notes that Tafa has underperformed in some fights. Levi sees Hunsucker as a gatekeeper brought in to get prospects back on track.

Tafa by KO in round 1
"Give me Justin Tafa to get it done... maybe he gets that first round knockout."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Jacob picks Justin Tafa but plays the over 1.5 rounds at +135. He thinks Hunsucker will pace himself to avoid getting finished early, and Tafa is patient, leading to a slow, boring striking affair. Jacob believes Tafa will outpoint Hunsucker. He also mentions that Hunsucker's history suggests a first-round finish, but he expects a different game plan from Hunsucker to prove he belongs in the UFC.

over 1.5 rounds at +135
"i think i might play the over one and a half for plus 135 on this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Dec 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)

The host does not pick a winner but expects a first-round finish. He bet 2 units on under 1.5 rounds at -190, believing either fighter could get knocked out. He also mentions Hunsucker by KO at +1000 as a stab.

under 1.5 rounds (-190), 2 units; Hunsucker by KO (+1000)
"I personally have a play on the under one and a half i took two units at -190"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Paul is very confident in Tafa, calling Hunsucker a low-level fighter who shouldn't be in the UFC. He notes Hunsucker's all first-round finishes (wins and losses) and poor competition. Tafa has better experience and cardio. Paul thinks Tafa will win by KO and mentions the under 1.5 rounds at -165 as a good bet.

Under 1.5 rounds -165
"I think he's going to more often than not catch harry before it carry he catches him if this thing goes to a second round which I don't think it's going to"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

The MMA Guru picks Justin Tafa to win by first-round KO. He notes Tafa has shown improvements in cardio and kicking, and he expects Tafa to chop at Hunsucker's calf like Tai Tuivasa did. He thinks Hunsucker has quick hands but Tafa's power and well-roundedness will prevail. He predicts a body kick followed by a counter shot for the KO.

first round KO
"i'm gonna go with justin tafa not as easy of a pick as some people might think"
LOSS vs Jared Vanderaa
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · May 22, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Vanderaa 0 74 of 147 50% 74 of 147 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Justin Tafa 0 121 of 248 48% 141 of 269 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Vanderaa 0 15 of 38 39% 15 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Tafa 0 31 of 64 48% 31 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jared Vanderaa 0 26 of 47 55% 26 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Tafa 0 47 of 90 52% 60 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
3 Jared Vanderaa 0 33 of 62 53% 33 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Justin Tafa 0 43 of 94 45% 50 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Vanderaa 74 of 147 50% 35 of 102 32 of 38 7 of 7 70 of 143 4 of 4 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 121 of 248 48% 64 of 181 34 of 43 23 of 24 104 of 226 17 of 22 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Vanderaa 15 of 38 39% 9 of 31 4 of 5 2 of 2 14 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 31 of 64 48% 14 of 44 7 of 9 10 of 11 27 of 58 4 of 6 0 of 0
2 Jared Vanderaa 26 of 47 55% 14 of 33 7 of 9 5 of 5 24 of 45 2 of 2 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 47 of 90 52% 26 of 66 12 of 15 9 of 9 39 of 79 8 of 11 0 of 0
3 Jared Vanderaa 33 of 62 53% 12 of 38 21 of 24 0 of 0 32 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 43 of 94 45% 24 of 71 15 of 19 4 of 4 38 of 89 5 of 5 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 18, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Big Brady picks the underdog Vanderaa, reasoning that if Vanderaa can get takedowns, he has a huge advantage on the ground with submissions and ground-and-pound, while Tafa is lost on his back. He acknowledges Tafa's striking power could knock Vanderaa out early, but believes Vanderaa's path to victory via grappling is viable. He expects an early finish.

Vanderaa by ground-and-pound, first round
"i'm gonna pick the dog here in vendera to get those takedowns to get that ground upon victory"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Cody Saftic picks Justin Tafa, citing Tafa's striking advantage and Vanderaa's hittability. He notes that Vanderaa is slow, flat-footed, and defensively unsound, and that Tafa has shown improvement in his last fight against Carlos Felipe. Saftic believes Tafa will get a knockout within the first round and a half, but acknowledges that if it goes longer, Vanderaa could capitalize with his ground-and-pound. He suggests live betting Vanderaa if Tafa fades.

Tafa by knockout, live bet Vanderaa if Tafa fades
"my pick's going to be topha tafa and i think he should be able to get this one done by knockout but toff has got a round and a half to get this thing done by knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 20, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa, believing Tafa's striking power and improving takedown defense will be too much for Vanderaa. He notes that Vanderaa is a tough guy but a walking punching bag, and that Tafa's Samoan kickboxing style with sneaky uppercuts and leg kicks will lead to a first-round knockout. He dismisses Vanderaa's alleged wrestling credentials.

first round knockout
"i think justin tafa is going to knock him out in the first round so i'm going tafa here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Matt picks Justin Tafa by second-round knockout, but with low confidence. He notes Tafa showed improved patience and leg kicks in his last fight against Carlos Felipe, which changed his perception of Tafa. However, he acknowledges Vanderaa could take a grapple-heavy approach and be successful, so he is not trusting either fighter heavily. He sees this as a good matchup for Tafa to find a knockout, but not a lock play.

Justin Tafa by KO/TKO round 2
"i'll go justin tafa via second round knockout in this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Paul Shaughnessy also picks Tafa but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Tafa is only 4-2 and has shown inconsistency, but believes he is the better striker and that Vanderaa's wrestling advantage may not be enough. He suggests passing on the moneyline and instead looking for a better price on Tafa by knockout, or live betting.

Tafa by knockout (plus money), pass on moneyline
"i hate to keep saying past pass pass so i i will make a pick it will be justin tafa but you know it could get a better price on it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 22, 2021 (fight day)
Justin Tafa

The MMA Guru predicts Justin Tafa will win by first-round KO via uppercut. He dismisses Vanderaa's wrestling as garbage and expects Tafa to chop at the calf early, slowing Vanderaa down. Then Tafa will catch him against the cage with an uppercut, leading to a TKO finish.

"i'm going first round ko for justin tafar here"
Expert Picks (6)
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 18, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Big Brady picks the underdog Vanderaa, reasoning that if Vanderaa can get takedowns, he has a huge advantage on the ground with submissions and ground-and-pound, while Tafa is lost on his back. He acknowledges Tafa's striking power could knock Vanderaa out early, but believes Vanderaa's path to victory via grappling is viable. He expects an early finish.

Vanderaa by ground-and-pound, first round
"i'm gonna pick the dog here in vendera to get those takedowns to get that ground upon victory"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Cody Saftic picks Justin Tafa, citing Tafa's striking advantage and Vanderaa's hittability. He notes that Vanderaa is slow, flat-footed, and defensively unsound, and that Tafa has shown improvement in his last fight against Carlos Felipe. Saftic believes Tafa will get a knockout within the first round and a half, but acknowledges that if it goes longer, Vanderaa could capitalize with his ground-and-pound. He suggests live betting Vanderaa if Tafa fades.

Tafa by knockout, live bet Vanderaa if Tafa fades
"my pick's going to be topha tafa and i think he should be able to get this one done by knockout but toff has got a round and a half to get this thing done by knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 20, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa, believing Tafa's striking power and improving takedown defense will be too much for Vanderaa. He notes that Vanderaa is a tough guy but a walking punching bag, and that Tafa's Samoan kickboxing style with sneaky uppercuts and leg kicks will lead to a first-round knockout. He dismisses Vanderaa's alleged wrestling credentials.

first round knockout
"i think justin tafa is going to knock him out in the first round so i'm going tafa here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Matt picks Justin Tafa by second-round knockout, but with low confidence. He notes Tafa showed improved patience and leg kicks in his last fight against Carlos Felipe, which changed his perception of Tafa. However, he acknowledges Vanderaa could take a grapple-heavy approach and be successful, so he is not trusting either fighter heavily. He sees this as a good matchup for Tafa to find a knockout, but not a lock play.

Justin Tafa by KO/TKO round 2
"i'll go justin tafa via second round knockout in this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Paul Shaughnessy also picks Tafa but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Tafa is only 4-2 and has shown inconsistency, but believes he is the better striker and that Vanderaa's wrestling advantage may not be enough. He suggests passing on the moneyline and instead looking for a better price on Tafa by knockout, or live betting.

Tafa by knockout (plus money), pass on moneyline
"i hate to keep saying past pass pass so i i will make a pick it will be justin tafa but you know it could get a better price on it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 22, 2021 (fight day)
Justin Tafa

The MMA Guru predicts Justin Tafa will win by first-round KO via uppercut. He dismisses Vanderaa's wrestling as garbage and expects Tafa to chop at the calf early, slowing Vanderaa down. Then Tafa will catch him against the cage with an uppercut, leading to a TKO finish.

"i'm going first round ko for justin tafar here"