UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021 · Heavyweight · Completed
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Age 34
Height 6' 6"
Reach 81.0"
Weight 260 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 36
Height 6' 4"
Reach 79.0"
Weight 265 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Don'Tale Mayes
3.22 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
3.61 SApM
46.0% Str. Def.
0.59 TD Avg
38.0% TD Acc.
46.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Josh Parisian
4.55 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
4.88 SApM
41.0% Str. Def.
0.98 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
46.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Don'Tale Mayes
Moneyline
DraftKings -165
KO/TKO
DraftKings +175
Submission
FanDuel +1800
Decision
BetMGM +275
Josh Parisian
Moneyline
BetMGM +165
KO/TKO
FanDuel +460
Submission
BetRivers +1000
Decision
FanDuel +500
Don'Tale Mayes - Fight History
LOSS vs Thomas Petersen
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · May 03, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Thomas Petersen 0 28 of 51 54% 105 of 166 9 of 9 100% 1 0 13:49
Don'Tale Mayes 0 3 of 11 27% 13 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Thomas Petersen 0 1 of 3 33% 12 of 19 3 of 3 100% 1 0 4:34
Don'Tale Mayes 0 1 of 5 20% 9 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Thomas Petersen 0 5 of 19 26% 36 of 69 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:27
Don'Tale Mayes 0 1 of 4 25% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Thomas Petersen 0 22 of 29 75% 57 of 78 4 of 4 100% 0 0 4:48
Don'Tale Mayes 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Thomas Petersen 28 of 51 54% 28 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 5 1 of 1 26 of 45
Don'Tale Mayes 3 of 11 27% 1 of 8 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Thomas Petersen 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1
Don'Tale Mayes 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Thomas Petersen 5 of 19 26% 5 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 16
Don'Tale Mayes 1 of 4 25% 0 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Thomas Petersen 22 of 29 75% 22 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 21 of 28
Don'Tale Mayes 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Thomas Petersen

Angelo sees this as a straightforward matchup: if Thomas Petersen gets takedowns, he wins; if he stays on the feet too long, he gets knocked out. He notes that Don'Tale Mayes has struggled with grapplers recently, and Petersen took down his last opponent easily. He believes Petersen's wrestling will be the deciding factor.

"I like Peterson here, but another weird fight with crazy odds."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Thomas Petersen

Big Brady is confident in Thomas Petersen, expecting his best performance to date. He highlights Petersen's wrestling background and vicious ground and pound, noting that Mayes has poor takedown defense (57%) and looks bad when taken down, citing examples like Valter Walker's heel hook and Shamil Gaz's control. He questions Mayes's motivation, pointing out his social media silence and poor shape at weigh-ins. He predicts Petersen will take Mayes down and finish him by TKO in round two.

Round 2 TKO
"I think Thomas train Peterson has his best performance to date. Takes Dantel Maize down to the ground and either pounds him out or or finds a potential submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Thomas Petersen

Mayes is an average heavyweight with a 5-5 UFC record. Petersen can dictate the pace with his developing striking and mix in takedowns. I expect Petersen to grind out a decision win.

"I'm expecting Peterson to grind this out and win it on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

The MMA Guru picks Don'Tale Mayes as an underdog, despite acknowledging Mayes' poor record. He believes Mayes is more athletic on the feet, has a 7-inch reach advantage, and better cardio. He predicts Mayes will stuff takedowns and eventually get a TKO in round two, possibly after Petersen fails a takedown and Mayes gains top position.

TKO in round 2
"I'm going to go with Dantel Mazize. He's been in the UFC for a long time. He's got a lot of experience."
LOSS vs Valter Walker
Submission R1 1:17 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · Feb 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Valter Walker 0 1 of 2 50% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Don'Tale Mayes 0 1 of 3 33% 5 of 9 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Valter Walker 0 1 of 2 50% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Don'Tale Mayes 0 1 of 3 33% 5 of 9 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:58
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Valter Walker 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Valter Walker 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Angelo hesitantly picks Valter Walker, despite his hatred for Walker's embarrassing UFC debut. He reasons that Walker has good takedowns and Mayes is useless when taken down. However, he notes Walker's striking is awful and his cardio is suspect, so if Mayes can survive early, he could win. He says he cannot bet Walker at -165.

"I'm going to I'm going to pick wter Walker but my God the writing is on the wall Dantel May has good takedowns Dantel Mays is not a [ __ ] Dantel Mays has good striking those three things all …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Big Brady picks Walker by decision, citing Mayes' poor takedown defense (58%) and inability to get up once taken down. He notes Mayes has a striking advantage but lacks power to hurt Walker. Walker should get takedowns easily and control Mayes on the ground, though he lacks finishing ability.

goes the distance
"should be volter Walker I'll give me wter Walker by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2025 (fight day)
Valter Walker

Expecting a slow, grueling fight. Walker will likely keep Mayes in defensive positions against the cage or on the ground, using his grappling-heavy approach to nullify Mayes' offense. Walker wins on the scorecards.

"I'm expecting nothing less from this matchup which to me means that Walker will likely keep Mayes in defensive positions... and I believe Walker will win this matchup on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Valter Walker

The MMA Guru picks Valter Walker over Don'Tale Mayes, reasoning that Mayes has a history of losing and his wins are against low-level heavyweights. He acknowledges Walker's poor UFC debut but attributes it to circumstances, and believes Walker's regional success and potential will prevail.

"I'm gonna go with Johnny wal's Brother valter Walker"
LOSS vs Shamil Gaziev
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Aug 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shamil Gaziev 0 31 of 46 67% 89 of 114 2 of 3 66% 0 0 11:58
Don'Tale Mayes 0 27 of 58 46% 57 of 95 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shamil Gaziev 0 8 of 13 61% 24 of 35 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:32
Don'Tale Mayes 0 12 of 17 70% 12 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Shamil Gaziev 0 21 of 28 75% 29 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:28
Don'Tale Mayes 0 10 of 25 40% 20 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Shamil Gaziev 0 2 of 5 40% 36 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:58
Don'Tale Mayes 0 5 of 16 31% 25 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shamil Gaziev 31 of 46 67% 22 of 37 8 of 8 1 of 1 12 of 25 15 of 17 4 of 4
Don'Tale Mayes 27 of 58 46% 18 of 45 5 of 9 4 of 4 25 of 53 2 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shamil Gaziev 8 of 13 61% 7 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 1 4 of 4
Don'Tale Mayes 12 of 17 70% 7 of 11 2 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Shamil Gaziev 21 of 28 75% 13 of 20 7 of 7 1 of 1 6 of 12 15 of 16 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 10 of 25 40% 9 of 22 1 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 21 1 of 4 0 of 0
3 Shamil Gaziev 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 5 of 16 31% 2 of 12 2 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Shamil Gaziev vs. Don'Tale Mayes
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gaziev (-238), Mayes (+195)

Round 1
The lone heavyweight contest on the fight card plays out on the prelims rather than slotted undeservedly on the main card. Fresh off a deflating headlining loss to suffer his first pro defeat, Gaziev (12-1, 1-1 UFC) is hungry to bounce back from that setback at the expense of Kentucky judoka Mayes (11-6, 1 NC; 4-4, 1 NC UFC). The reputation of the fictitious Kentucky Judo Federation is at stake over the next 15 minutes, and referee Keith Peterson is ready to handle the nonsense. There is a clap of hands, and Mayes says hello with punches, a low kick and a looping left hand. Gaziev backs him off with a one-two, and Mayes fires back but is tagged with a right hand. Mayes backs up to the wall as he tries to get his mind right, and Gaziev shoots for a double and clasps his hands. Gaziev slams his man to the floor, and the entire Octagon shudders at the impact. The Bahraini by way of Russia moves to half guard with ease, where he frames off the face with his elbow and jams it down. Gaziev frees his hand from the grasp of his foe to slug him in the chops with two right hands, and he keeps “Lord Kong” flat on his back with no sign of getting back to his feet as there are over three minutes left in the round. Gaziev considers taking side control but prefers the half guard to maintain control, and he winds up with a hard right hand that bounces off the forehead. Gaziev lands right hands when he is able to wriggle his arm out of the grip of his adversary, landing enough to keep Peterson from standing them up. Gaziev presses down with his shoulder for a potential arm-triangle choke, and he sits up to land more offense. Gaziev fights off Mayes trying to sit up and punches him in the face. Gaziev hooks his arm around the neck again to keep Mayes flat, lumping him up with short but powerful blows. When the 10-second clapper sounds, Gaziev punches his way into an arm-triangle choke from the other side, but the horn toots before it is completed.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev

Round 2
The heavyweights meander towards one another as the second round opens, and Mayes keeps his man honest by busting him in the chops with several hooks. The blows are strong but largely one, and then another, rather than chained together. Mayes gets in an uppercut and shoots for his own takedown, and Gaziev grabs pursues a takedown. Mayes grabs the shorts of his foe, pulling them way up, and Peterson warns him for the grab and calls time to issue another warning instead of taking a point. They resume where they left off, and Mayes ducks, seeing an elbow whiz by his head. Mayes gets back to boxing range, slinging hooks, and Gaziev clashes forward and slams his head into the chin of his foe. Peterson observes it but does not call time, and Gaziev fights his way into a clinch as Mayes is not overly thrilled. Gaziev drives knees to the solar plexus, and he rings Mayes’ bell with an elbow. Mayes staggers back, away from the clinch, but Gaziev snags him again and starts peppering him again with knees. As the heavyweights slow to a crawl, the commentary booth remarks that the temperature feels like over 100 degrees Fahrenheit with humidity in the arena around 75%. The big men are pouring sweat and are totally wiped out, kneeing one another with short shots as Gaziev is warned by draping his hands over the fencing. Mayes sneaks in a left hand, and Gaziev pays him back with a thumping knee. Gaziev has no interest in letting go or deviating from his approach, clinging to the Kentucky native and spamming knees until the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev

Round 3
Mayes starts out the final round with a fresh head of steam, racing in with punches that are telegraphed and largely miss the mark. Gaziev avoids some, eats others, and responds when caught. Mayes swings hard to the liver, and Gaziev runs at him and bowls him over, landing in half guard and returning to smothering top control form. Gaziev stays just busy enough to not have Peterson warn him for inactivity, smacking Mayes in the dome and otherwise making his life miserable. Gaziev holds on with his forearm, and Mayes complains about something. Mayes starts talking to Gaziev, and Peterson does call for more action. Gaziev answers with a few fists, and Mayes answers him with words that Gaziev may or may not understand. Gaziev postures up to drop down heavy left hands, and Mayes keeps chattering and softly lands punches to the side from his back. Mayes holds on and is trying to have a conversation, mentioning that the fans are booing Gaziev. Gaziev controls and grinds, sapping time away and ending the rough matchup disappointingly.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev (30-27 Gaziev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev (30-27 Gaziev)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev (30-27 Gaziev)

The Official Result
Shamil Gaziev def. Don’Tale Mayes via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Angelo is confident Gaziev bounces back from his first loss, believing he bit off more than he could chew in his last fight. He thinks Gaziev is the more powerful striker with good takedowns, and that this is a good rebound fight. He expects Gaziev to win but notes cardio concerns.

"I am not ready to give up on Shamil... I think he does get on the right track"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Big Brady thinks Gaziev should be able to destroy Mayes if he is anywhere near the real deal, comparing Mayes to Martin Budai whom Gaziev finished impressively. He notes Mayes does not like getting hit and has been finished on the mat multiple times. He worries about Gaziev's gas tank if the fight extends past 1.5 rounds but predicts an early finish by first-round knockout.

"I think gaze can maybe pressure in this fight like he did against Martin budai if he does that I think he can knock out dant ma"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Cody picks Shamil Gaziev, noting that Mayes has poor takedown defense and has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. He thinks Gaziev can use his wrestling and clinch to neutralize Mayes's range striking. Cody acknowledges Gaziev's cardio issues but believes in a three-round fight he can win the first two rounds. He also mentions that Mayes is flat-footed and struggles to get up when taken down.

"I'm gonna Edge towards gazio."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Daniel picks Gaziev, believing he should be able to pin Mayes against the fence and dirty box him. He notes Mayes is inconsistent and has lost to lower-level competition, while Gaziev's only loss is to a top-10 guy. He expects a similar performance to Gaziev's win over Bud.

"I think Shamil is just better than dant May so I'm gonna pick him for that reason"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Gaziev is coming off a main event loss and will be pissed off. He should steamroll Mayes, finishing him in the first or second round.

finishes in round 1 or 2
"I think we're going to see a very pissed off gadv coming into the cage this weekend and I think he steamrolls down tell me finishing him in the first or second round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Paul picks Shamil Gaziev, noting that Mayes has been taken down by many opponents and has poor get-up game. He thinks Gaziev can use his wrestling to control the fight. Paul acknowledges that both fighters are low-level heavyweights and that Mayes could win if he stuffs takedowns, but he leans toward Gaziev. He also mentions that the fight could be slow and the over might be a play.

over 1.5 rounds
"Maybe hit an over because it's one of those slow paced bog of a heavyweight fights."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

The MMA Guru picks Shamil Gaziev over Don'Tale Mayes, despite calling Gaziev 'awful'. He thinks Mayes is 'a bit dumb' and that Gaziev's grappling will be the difference. He expects Gaziev to take Mayes down and wear him out, possibly catching a spinning attack from Mayes. He predicts a fourth-round TKO, though the fight is three rounds.

TKO
"I'm GNA go with Shamil gazer over Dantel may I just think Dantel May is a bit dumb"
WIN vs Caio Machado
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez · Apr 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Don'Tale Mayes 1 67 of 183 36% 73 of 190 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Caio Machado 0 76 of 159 47% 77 of 160 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Don'Tale Mayes 1 20 of 55 36% 26 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Caio Machado 0 19 of 40 47% 19 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Don'Tale Mayes 0 26 of 61 42% 26 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Caio Machado 0 25 of 53 47% 25 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Don'Tale Mayes 0 21 of 67 31% 21 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Caio Machado 0 32 of 66 48% 33 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Don'Tale Mayes 67 of 183 36% 42 of 140 18 of 29 7 of 14 67 of 181 0 of 1 0 of 1
Caio Machado 76 of 159 47% 33 of 103 25 of 33 18 of 23 75 of 158 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Don'Tale Mayes 20 of 55 36% 12 of 39 7 of 12 1 of 4 20 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 1
Caio Machado 19 of 40 47% 6 of 23 6 of 8 7 of 9 19 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Don'Tale Mayes 26 of 61 42% 18 of 50 4 of 6 4 of 5 26 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
Caio Machado 25 of 53 47% 13 of 38 7 of 9 5 of 6 25 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Don'Tale Mayes 21 of 67 31% 12 of 51 7 of 11 2 of 5 21 of 66 0 of 1 0 of 0
Caio Machado 32 of 66 48% 14 of 42 12 of 16 6 of 8 31 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Caio Machado

Angelo picks the underdog Caio Machado, believing he is the more technical striker with better footwork. He thinks Don'Tale Mayes has one-punch power but will struggle to land big shots, and Mayes' wrestling is not great. He expects Machado to defend takedowns and win a boring, sloppy heavyweight decision. He notes Mayes is a 2-to-1 favorite but favors the dog.

"I am going the dog here in Kyo Machado"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

Cody picks Mayes, citing his experience against better competition and his reach advantage. He thinks Mayes' jab and switch-hitting style will be effective, and that Machado's padded record and poor takedown defense will be exposed.

"I'm taking it might be the return of D1 dant"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Caio Machado

Daniel argues Machado is underrated, citing his striking ratio (7 strikes landed per minute, 2 absorbed) and 82% takedown defense. He calls Mayes one of the worst heavyweights, with poor fight IQ and a history of losing. He thinks Machado will win by wanting it more and having higher output.

"I'm going Kyle Machado here Dantel May is a bum"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Caio Machado

Machado will dictate the pace and be on the front foot, pressuring Mayes. Mayes has a history of quitting when faced with resistance. Machado's BJJ and pressure style should cause Mayes issues, and I expect Machado to finish him in the second or third round.

"I think we'll see masado get back to his feet if he is taken down and I think we'll see him get back to the pressure style and really put some big punches on Maize and possibly even finish him …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Caio Machado

Paul picks Machado, believing his volume striking will edge out Mayes. He notes Machado's youth and potential, but admits Mayes' takedown game could be a problem. He calls it a 50/50 fight and slightly favors Machado.

"I'll flip the script and I'll I'll take Mado here wins slightly slightly on volume"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

The MMA Guru picks Don'Tale Mayes as an underdog. He notes that Caio Machado is used to being the taller fighter and keeps his hands down, which could be exploited by Mayes' height and reach. He criticizes Machado's headbutts and believes Mayes' athleticism and one-shot finishing power give him an edge. He also mentions that Machado's win over Mick Parkin was aided by head clashes and that Mayes' KO of Andre Arlovski shows his potential.

"I'm gonna go with Dantel Mays over Machado"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Nov 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 70 of 154 45% 91 of 180 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:21
Don'Tale Mayes 0 79 of 159 49% 105 of 190 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 33 of 69 47% 41 of 79 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:33
Don'Tale Mayes 0 28 of 60 46% 35 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
2 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 20 of 40 50% 30 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:48
Don'Tale Mayes 0 23 of 50 46% 36 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 17 of 45 37% 20 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Don'Tale Mayes 0 28 of 49 57% 34 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rodrigo Nascimento 70 of 154 45% 51 of 132 9 of 11 10 of 11 58 of 134 12 of 20 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 79 of 159 49% 39 of 103 30 of 44 10 of 12 55 of 128 24 of 31 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rodrigo Nascimento 33 of 69 47% 28 of 64 2 of 2 3 of 3 30 of 61 3 of 8 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 28 of 60 46% 14 of 36 10 of 18 4 of 6 21 of 50 7 of 10 0 of 0
2 Rodrigo Nascimento 20 of 40 50% 13 of 33 3 of 3 4 of 4 15 of 33 5 of 7 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 23 of 50 46% 13 of 36 9 of 13 1 of 1 12 of 37 11 of 13 0 of 0
3 Rodrigo Nascimento 17 of 45 37% 10 of 35 4 of 6 3 of 4 13 of 40 4 of 5 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 28 of 49 57% 12 of 31 11 of 13 5 of 5 22 of 41 6 of 8 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Angelo picks Nascimento, trusting his grappling and cleaner path to victory. He notes Mayes has heavy hands and power, but Nascimento has a good chin. He hopes for an over 1.5 rounds line and would bet that, expecting Mayes to be more defensively aware after their first fight. He advises not betting on sloppy heavyweight fights otherwise.

would bet over 1.5 rounds if line is offered
"Rodrigo is going to be the pick I trust him to come forward I trust him to wrestle I trust him to do all those things"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Big Brady picks Rodrigo Nascimento to win by second-round submission. He notes that Nascimento won their first fight by submission and has improved at American Top Team. He believes Nascimento is better everywhere, with a BJJ base and 60% submission rate. He mentions Mayes has 56% takedown defense and can be taken down. He acknowledges Mayes has power but favors Nascimento.

"give me an awesome minute to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Daniel Levi picks Rodrigo Nascimento, recalling that Nascimento dominated Mayes in their first fight, out-striking him and taking him down at will. He notes that Nascimento has been motivated in training, taking his diet and preparation seriously. Levi acknowledges Mayes' physical attributes and one-punch knockout power, but believes Nascimento's mental edge and proven superiority will carry him. He has concerns about Nascimento's chin and cardio, but still favors him to win.

"I'm gonna go Rodrigo Nascimento here... I still think Rodrigo Nascimento is better than this man and for that reason I'm gonna pick him."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 4, 2023 (fight day)
Don'Tale Mayes

James has a different take than most, believing the +160 price on Mayes is due to the previous fight result rather than skill disparity. He notes that Mayes didn't look bad in the first fight, getting up from bottom and landing decent strikes before giving up his back. He thinks if Mayes doesn't give up his back, the fight is a pick 'em. He also mentions that Nascimento is hittable and Mayes could get a knockout. However, he is not massively passionate about this pick, calling it more of a hunch.

"I think d ma is I think the line's a little bit wide but I'm not massively passionate about this one."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

The MMA Guru picks Rodrigo Nascimento over Don'Tale Mayes. He dismisses Mayes' win over Andrei Arlovski as facing an aging fighter. The Guru notes Mayes looked poor against Augusto Sakai and Hamdy Abdelwahab, being held against the cage. He believes Nascimento's grappling and clinch work will be the difference, and he also favors Nascimento's inside boxing. He predicts a 29-28 decision.

"I'm gonna go with Rodrigo naso FAA... I think the grapp is going to be the difference here... 2928 decision"
TKO (punches) R2 3:17 · UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Don'Tale Mayes 0 24 of 56 42% 26 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrei Arlovski 1 25 of 87 28% 28 of 91 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Don'Tale Mayes 0 14 of 25 56% 16 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrei Arlovski 0 8 of 47 17% 11 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Don'Tale Mayes 0 10 of 31 32% 10 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrei Arlovski 1 17 of 40 42% 17 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Don'Tale Mayes 24 of 56 42% 10 of 36 9 of 10 5 of 10 24 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 25 of 87 28% 14 of 58 4 of 14 7 of 15 22 of 82 1 of 1 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Don'Tale Mayes 14 of 25 56% 5 of 12 5 of 6 4 of 7 14 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 8 of 47 17% 5 of 33 1 of 7 2 of 7 7 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 1
2 Don'Tale Mayes 10 of 31 32% 5 of 24 4 of 4 1 of 3 10 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 17 of 40 42% 9 of 25 3 of 7 5 of 8 15 of 37 0 of 0 2 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Angelo picks Arlovski, believing he is the better fighter in every category except age and chin. He thinks Arlovski's technical striking and experience will overcome Mayes' power. He is concerned about Arlovski's chin after the last fight but still expects him to win. He would bet Arlovski if the line keeps moving.

"in every single category other than Andre's old Andre lofsky's the better fighter every single category"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Cody picks Arlovski, agreeing with Paul. He notes that middling heavyweights often go to decision and that Arlovski is a fan favorite who gets close decisions. Cody points out that Mayes doesn't use his physical advantages and that Arlovski's experience and durability will carry him. He also mentions that Mayes has been knocked out by lesser fighters and that Arlovski is the safer pick.

"I'm gonna take the pit bull to get one over"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2023 (fight day)
Andrei Arlovski

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Mayes is a 'giant ball of wasted potential' who has never realized his athletic gifts. He points out that Arlovski has consistently beaten lower-tier heavyweights who lack a real striking game or finishing ability. Mayes' tendency to throw single strikes and his poor grappling will be exploited by Arlovski's steady pressure and clinch work.

"I mean he almost accidentally won that fight with hamdi up del wahab"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Daniel picks Arlovski, though he admits he hasn't taped the fight deeply. He thinks Mayes has mental fragility and Arlovski's veteran savvy could eke out a decision. He notes that Arlovski has been quitting in fights but Mayes may not bring that out of him. He considers a sprinkle on Arlovski by decision.

"I'll ask you ... Arlovski as well"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

Jacob picks Mayes, citing his speed and athleticism advantage over the 44-year-old Arlovski. He thinks Mayes should use range and volume to break down Arlovski's chin. He notes Arlovski looked old and uninterested in his last fight. Jacob is betting $100 on Mayes at +120.

Bet $100 on Mayes moneyline at +120.
"my pick I gotta stick with my duel man Indiana Zone Downtown maze baby nap time 100 317"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

Mayes is a hybrid heavyweight who mixes takedowns behind punches and works well in the clinch. Arlovski is reliant on striking and tends to quit when grappling gets tough. Mayes will tie him up, land takedowns, and control the fight to win a decision. The over 2.5 is the preferred bet.

over 2.5 rounds
"I'm gonna go with King Kong Dantel maze in this fight I think you'll be able to mix it up a lot better than Andre olowski"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Paul picks Arlovski at plus money. He notes Mayes has low output and doesn't use his reach or speed advantage. Paul mentions Arlovski's recent wins over low-output fighters and that the UFC seems to give him favorable matchups. He thinks Mayes is overrated as a favorite and that Arlovski can squeak out a decision. Paul also recalls losing money on Mayes in the past, making him hesitant to trust him.

"it's our lovsky for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 29, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

The MMA Guru picks Andrei Arlovski, believing this is one of the heavyweight fights Arlovski wins. He criticizes Don'Tale Mayes for being hesitant on the feet and getting blanketed by Augusto Sakai. He expects Arlovski to frustrate Mayes at range with leg kicks and small shots, while Mayes will be gun-shy and not throw enough. He acknowledges an upset is possible but thinks Arlovski's skill at this level of heavyweight will take over.

"I think arlovsky just sort of frustrating him at range I can see him picking at him tapping at his legs"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2023 (fight day)
Andrei Arlovski

Zane picks Arlovski based on his consistent ability to outwork opponents who lack a high-output striking game. He notes that Mayes is a talented but dysfunctional fighter with poor wrestling and no coherent game plan. Arlovski's jab, clinch work, and steady pace have proven too much for similar fighters like Felipe Lins and Tanner Boser. Zane believes Mayes' athleticism won't compensate for his lack of structure.

"I'm gonna take old man our law of ski once again"
LOSS vs Augusto Sakai
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · Feb 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Augusto Sakai 0 53 of 95 55% 107 of 173 1 of 2 50% 0 0 8:51
Don'Tale Mayes 0 29 of 62 46% 77 of 121 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Augusto Sakai 0 19 of 38 50% 31 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:58
Don'Tale Mayes 0 13 of 20 65% 29 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:53
2 Augusto Sakai 0 16 of 27 59% 46 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:52
Don'Tale Mayes 0 4 of 15 26% 31 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:06
3 Augusto Sakai 0 18 of 30 60% 30 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:01
Don'Tale Mayes 0 12 of 27 44% 17 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Augusto Sakai 53 of 95 55% 27 of 65 18 of 22 8 of 8 21 of 49 30 of 42 2 of 4
Don'Tale Mayes 29 of 62 46% 15 of 46 10 of 12 4 of 4 24 of 56 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Augusto Sakai 19 of 38 50% 10 of 28 4 of 5 5 of 5 5 of 14 14 of 24 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 13 of 20 65% 4 of 11 5 of 5 4 of 4 11 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Augusto Sakai 16 of 27 59% 6 of 16 7 of 8 3 of 3 10 of 20 6 of 7 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 4 of 15 26% 2 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Augusto Sakai 18 of 30 60% 11 of 21 7 of 9 0 of 0 6 of 15 10 of 11 2 of 4
Don'Tale Mayes 12 of 27 44% 9 of 22 3 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 24 3 of 3 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Connor picks Sakai, believing he can edge out a win by slowing the fight down with clinch work and using his durability. He notes that Mayes' inability to hit the same spot repeatedly makes it unlikely he'll knock Sakai out, and Sakai will do just enough work to pull out a decision. Connor acknowledges it's a close fight and that Sakai's confidence may be shaken, but he trusts Sakai's meat-and-potatoes approach over Mayes' chaos.

Sakai opened +125, now -137. Mayes opened -145, now +112. Connor says he wouldn't bet on any props.
"I'll go with Sakai for this this to me feels like a fight that he can win it might be a fight he edges like yeah just barely guts out and you're like wow that didn't actually make me feel …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

Zane picks Mayes despite his lack of structure, because Sakai's confidence has taken a hit after four straight finishes. He notes that Mayes is athletic, durable, and willing to try takedowns, and Sakai is not good on the ground. However, Zane admits he has no good reason to pick Mayes and calls it a coin flip, but he feels Sakai is not feeling himself lately.

Mayes via TKO was +200. Zane says he wouldn't bet on any props due to unpredictability.
"I don't have a good reason to pick maze but I just I'm just not feeling I don't think Spivak is feeling himself lately okay so sorry so I guess I'll take maze even though like he's such a mess"
No Contest (overturned) R3 5:00 · UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Jul 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Hamdy Abdelwahab 0 47 of 116 40% 54 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Don'Tale Mayes 1 58 of 110 52% 106 of 164 3 of 4 75% 0 0 6:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Hamdy Abdelwahab 0 11 of 40 27% 11 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Don'Tale Mayes 1 21 of 40 52% 44 of 67 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:00
2 Hamdy Abdelwahab 0 24 of 56 42% 27 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Don'Tale Mayes 0 19 of 41 46% 20 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
3 Hamdy Abdelwahab 0 12 of 20 60% 16 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Don'Tale Mayes 0 18 of 29 62% 42 of 55 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Hamdy Abdelwahab 47 of 116 40% 28 of 90 12 of 17 7 of 9 45 of 111 2 of 5 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 58 of 110 52% 51 of 102 5 of 6 2 of 2 30 of 74 2 of 3 26 of 33
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Hamdy Abdelwahab 11 of 40 27% 6 of 31 2 of 4 3 of 5 11 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 21 of 40 52% 19 of 37 1 of 2 1 of 1 13 of 30 2 of 2 6 of 8
2 Hamdy Abdelwahab 24 of 56 42% 14 of 44 6 of 8 4 of 4 22 of 51 2 of 5 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 19 of 41 46% 14 of 36 4 of 4 1 of 1 13 of 32 0 of 0 6 of 9
3 Hamdy Abdelwahab 12 of 20 60% 8 of 15 4 of 5 0 of 0 12 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 18 of 29 62% 18 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 12 0 of 1 14 of 16
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

Big Brady picks Don'Tale Mayes to win by knockout in the second or third round. He is very critical of Abdelwahab's level of competition, cardio, and ground game, calling him not UFC caliber. He expects Mayes to use his size advantage and eventually finish Abdelwahab as he slows down.

"i like dantel mace here i like dantel mace to finish him d abdul wahab and i like him to do in that second or third round by knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

Cody picks Mayes, noting that Abdelwahab is a short-notice replacement who didn't earn his way to the UFC. He describes Abdelwahab as an Egyptian wrestling champion but with a small wrestling program, and his striking is very rudimentary. Mayes has a huge size advantage (6'6" with 81" reach) and has been improving his grappling. He thinks Mayes will feast on Abdelwahab, staying on the outside and chopping away. He also mentions he got Mayes at -125 earlier.

"i think dante manages feasts on him there's going to be a huge size advantage... he's going to be able to just stay to the outside and chop away at this guy"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

Daniel picks Mayes on principle, citing his experience and dues paid. He notes Mayes has fought tougher competition, including Ciryl Gane, and has a two-fight win streak. He heavily criticizes Abdelwahab's resume, calling his opponents 'ice cream vendors' and noting he has only 3 pro fights, all mismatches. He also questions the level of Egyptian Greco-Roman wrestling, citing a friend who said it's not comparable to US or Russian wrestling. He acknowledges Mayes isn't elite but believes experience will prevail.

"I gotta go Don'Tale Mayes on principle."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Don'Tale Mayes

Preet bet Mayes at -132, noting Hamdi's sketchy competition and poor cardio. He expects Mayes to keep distance with his jab and footwork, survive the first round, and take over as Hamdi slows down. He references Mayes' wrestling-heavy win over Josh Parisian as evidence of his late-round finishing ability.

"i'm on the maze side too here i got it at -132"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

Paul also picks Mayes, agreeing that Abdelwahab is a short-notice replacement who is not a legitimate prospect. He notes that Mayes has been improving, with good wins over Josh Parisian and Roque Martinez. He thinks Mayes' size and reach advantage will be key, and that Abdelwahab's wrestling won't be enough. He also mentions that Mayes has been working on his grappling and shouldn't be mistaken for the same guy from a few fights back.

"i got to go maze for sure for sure for sure... he's taking the fun and short notice and he's probably going to get the ass beat pretty good"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Don'Tale Mayes

The MMA Guru picks Don'Tale Mayes by TKO in the second round. He expects Hamdy Abdelwahab to come out fast with takedowns and pressure, but will gas out in round two. Mayes will then take over with body work, jabs, and a counter shot that rocks Hamdy, leading to ground-and-pound elbows.

TKO in round 2
"dantel maze gets this one done by tko late in the second"
Josh Parisian - Fight History
TKO (punches) R1 0:18 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robelis Despaigne 1 7 of 9 77% 7 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Josh Parisian 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robelis Despaigne 1 7 of 9 77% 7 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Josh Parisian 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robelis Despaigne 7 of 9 77% 7 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Josh Parisian 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robelis Despaigne 7 of 9 77% 7 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Josh Parisian 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Angelo picks Robelis Despaigne despite it being his UFC debut, citing his Olympic taekwondo background, insane power, and 19-second cumulative knockout time in his last three fights. He acknowledges Parisian is durable and has experience, but believes Parisian lacks one-punch power to hurt Despaigne. He considers a high-risk parlay with Despaigne.

Might include Despaigne in a high-risk parlay.
"I do have to go robell here and I I might do a high-risk parlay"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Big Brady picks Robelis Despaigne to win by first-round knockout in under 60 seconds. He notes Despaigne's incredible reach and power, and that all his fights have ended quickly. He believes Josh Parisian will try to strike with Despaigne and get knocked out. He also mentions a PrizePicks play on Despaigne's fight time under 4.75 minutes.

win by first round knockout; PrizePicks: fight time under 4.75 minutes
"give me desban first round knockout this fight should be hilarious for as long as it lasts which I don't think it lasts too long"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Cody is intrigued by Despaigne's physical attributes and knockout power but notes his lack of experience and questionable grappling. He thinks Despaigne will likely knock out Parisian early, but at -330, he's not confident enough to bet heavily.

"I guess I'll pick Rellis but he could be so bad like it's weird"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Daniel picks Despaigne via knockout, citing his athleticism, reach, and power. He notes Parisian is a bottom-of-the-barrel heavyweight and Despaigne is too athletic for him. However, he warns that if Parisian gets double underhooks and takes it past round one, Despaigne could gas out. He expects a quick knockout.

by knockout
"I'm gon go robless here via knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Despaigne has insane power and speed, but there is not enough film on him against legitimate competition. He was held up against the cage in his debut, and his takedown defense is untested. Parisian has good durability, forward pressure, and a grinding style that could wear on Despaigne. If Parisian can survive the first couple minutes of each round and get his cage grind going, he is live to win. I have no confidence in the chalky spot on Despaigne, so I lean Parisian by decision.

"I can't muster up the uh the the confidence to bet perisian either I do have to just by principal kind of just lean on the pran side here and pick him to win this matchup by being able to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Paul thinks Despaigne is a fraud waiting to be exposed. He notes that Parisian is a big heavyweight who can take Despaigne down and grind on him. He believes if Parisian can survive the first round, he has a good chance to win.

"I'm gonna take Josh perisian and it'll be the PRP pick of the week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

The MMA Guru is extremely confident in Robelis Despaigne, mocking Josh Parisian's physique and conditioning. He notes Despaigne is an Olympic medalist in Taekwondo with a massive reach and athleticism, while Parisian is out of shape and has been finished by lower-level heavyweights. He predicts a TKO victory.

TKO
"I think Rob Ellis despain is going to mess up Josh perisian so badly ... I'm gonna go with him to win this fight TKO"
LOSS vs Martin Buday
Submission (kimura) R1 4:11 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Martin Buday 0 26 of 61 42% 27 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Josh Parisian 0 42 of 67 62% 62 of 91 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Martin Buday 0 26 of 61 42% 27 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Josh Parisian 0 42 of 67 62% 62 of 91 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:56
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Martin Buday 26 of 61 42% 15 of 49 6 of 7 5 of 5 20 of 47 6 of 14 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 42 of 67 62% 35 of 60 7 of 7 0 of 0 28 of 49 14 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Martin Buday 26 of 61 42% 15 of 49 6 of 7 5 of 5 20 of 47 6 of 14 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 42 of 67 62% 35 of 60 7 of 7 0 of 0 28 of 49 14 of 18 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Angelo picks Buday fairly confidently, noting Buday has power, solid footwork, and better cardio. He thinks Buday should be the better striker and have takedown defense to keep it standing. He expects a decision win and suggests looking at round lines, possibly over 2.5 rounds.

Over 2.5 rounds (if line drops)
"Martin should win this fight I'm fairly confident in him and this is likely a decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Big Brady picks Martin Buday to win by decision, but is very hesitant. He notes Buday's skills (brown belt in BJJ, good top game) but criticizes his game plan of holding opponents against the cage and not using takedowns. He points out that Buday has attempted zero takedowns in his three UFC fights. He believes Buday could easily win if he wrestles, but doubts he will. He calls the fight 'disgusting' and says he wants nothing to do with it.

"give me budai budai by decision but this is a fight that I really want nothing to do with I mean this is a disgusting fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Cody picks Buday, expecting a boring decision. He notes Buday's style of clinching and controlling against the cage, and that Parisian has poor cardio and has been taken down easily. He thinks Buday will win by volume and control, and recommends the over 2.5 rounds and Buday by decision. He also mentions Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.

Over 2.5 rounds (-125); Buday by decision (+165); Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"party Marty by volume by holding up against the cage maybe get some takedowns if he wants to"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

James sees value on Parisian at +180, calling Buday a 'cage push or bust' fighter who gassed against Jake Collier. He thinks Parisian might not gas as badly and the fight is closer than the odds suggest. However, he is not confident due to the volatility and may not bet it.

"I think Josh Parisian is value here... will I bet on him? That's different."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Buday is on an 11-fight winning streak and wears on opponents in the clinch, taking them down and doing damage from top. Parisian is an average heavyweight with one speed and alternating wins and losses. Buday's hard-nosed approach and tight striking defense should allow him to pull away late and win by decision. However, the line at -200 is a bit wide as Parisian could have grappling success.

Buday by decision
"I fully expect budai to get his hand raised by decision in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Paul picks Buday, agreeing it will be a slow heavyweight fight. He notes Parisian's poor performances and that Buday is younger and more effective in the clinch. He thinks Buday by decision is likely and likes the over 2.5 rounds. He also mentions Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.

Over 2.5 rounds; Buday by decision; Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"the official pick would be budai by decision but like it's gonna be super super ugly"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Martin Buday

The MMA Guru picks Martin Buday over Josh Parisian, stating that Parisian is dangerous but Buday has better conditioning, clinch work, and cardio for a heavyweight. He notes Buday's controversial win over Lukasz Brzeski and his performance against Jake Collier. He expects Buday to outwork Parisian against the cage and in the clinch, leading to a decision or late finish.

"I'm going with Tom Segura okay Martin bidet is gonna win this fight against Josh Parisian"
LOSS vs Jamal Pogues
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · Feb 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamal Pogues 0 37 of 113 32% 51 of 137 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:12
Josh Parisian 0 33 of 60 55% 49 of 79 5 of 11 45% 0 0 5:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamal Pogues 0 12 of 28 42% 15 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Parisian 0 7 of 18 38% 13 of 25 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:54
2 Jamal Pogues 0 13 of 39 33% 17 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Josh Parisian 0 8 of 14 57% 17 of 24 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:20
3 Jamal Pogues 0 12 of 46 26% 19 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:43
Josh Parisian 0 18 of 28 64% 19 of 30 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamal Pogues 37 of 113 32% 19 of 85 14 of 23 4 of 5 35 of 110 2 of 3 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 33 of 60 55% 29 of 56 3 of 3 1 of 1 20 of 47 9 of 9 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamal Pogues 12 of 28 42% 7 of 20 3 of 6 2 of 2 11 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 7 of 18 38% 6 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 4
2 Jamal Pogues 13 of 39 33% 6 of 26 5 of 10 2 of 3 12 of 37 1 of 2 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 8 of 14 57% 8 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Jamal Pogues 12 of 46 26% 6 of 39 6 of 7 0 of 0 12 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 18 of 28 64% 15 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 23 5 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Angelo picks Parisian, citing his volume striking and UFC experience. He notes Parisian set heavyweight significant strike records and has a grappling win over Alan Baudot. Angelo thinks Pogues is a decent but not powerful heavyweight who doesn't move his head. He believes Parisian's higher-level experience will be the difference, and the line movement favoring Pogues is surprising. He considers a Parisian by decision bet at plus odds.

Angelo mentions Parisian plus 3.5 at -110 and Parisian by decision at plus money as potential bets.
"I like Josh Parisian this matchup... I think parisian's gonna win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

Big Brady sees a clear path for Pogues via wrestling, as Parisian has terrible takedown defense and get-up game, as shown in the Dontale Mayes fight. He notes that Pogues didn't wrestle in his last fight, which is a concern, but if he does, he should dominate. He predicts a decision win, but warns against betting the -250 line.

Pogues by decision
"Jamal poke should win this fight I mean he has a clear path to Victory with the wrestling"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

Cody picks Pogues but doesn't like the -240 line for an unproven UFC debutant. He notes Pogues is young (27), has good cardio for a heavyweight, and has a wrestling advantage. However, he warns that Pogues' striking is mechanical and he's there to get countered. He also mentions Parisian's only good characteristic is being a bona fide heavyweight, and if Parisian gets top position, it's a big body to move off. He says it's a greasy heavyweight spot and he's not confident.

Cody mentions Pogues came in at 248 on Contender Series. He says he'll pick Pogues but won't lay -240.
"I don't like laying you know low level heavyweights I don't like Lane minus two four I probably won't lay minus 240 here I will be picking Pogues."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Connor picks Parisian because he is bigger and can make the fight brutal. He thinks Pogues' gas tank may not hold up against Parisian's pressure, and Parisian's toughness and aggression could wear Pogues down. Connor notes that Pogues has not faced a fighter like Parisian who will crash into him repeatedly.

"I'll take Parisian. I think that this is a fight where the fact, you know, we talked about pogues looking decent in on the Contender series... Parisian is bigger. He's just bigger."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

Jacob picks Pogues but is not confident enough to bet. He thinks Pogues has a wrestling advantage and will be more active with his jab, outworking Parisian. However, he notes Pogues isn't a finisher and Parisian has a dog in him. Jacob expects a sloppy, close fight and might consider a live bet on Parisian if the fight is close in the third round.

"I'm gonna go with Jamal um just because I think he has a wrestling advantage."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

Pogues has a strong grappling base and good cardio, which should overwhelm Parisian, who fades in deep waters. Parisian's striking is flashy but his gas tank is poor. Pogues can take him down and grind out a decision, or even finish late.

Pogues wins by decision
"I like Pogues here... I think he wins this fight via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

Paul also picks Pogues but is hesitant. He notes Parisian's wrestling narrative is overblown, as he was taken down by Parker Porter and Dantale Maze. He says Pogues should have speed, technical striking, and cardio advantages. However, he acknowledges Parisian has a size advantage (20-25 pounds) and could use it against the cage. He says he loves betting underdogs but cannot get on board with Parisian.

Paul mentions Parisian's takedown defense is poor. He says he won't lay -240 but will pick Pogues.
"I will be picking Pogues because really outside of yeah holding him up against the cage using a little bit of size Advantage... I cannot cannot get on board playing Josh Parisian."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

The MMA Guru picks Jamal Pogues, though he wasn't impressed by his Contender Series performance. He notes Pogues has a long reach and somewhat crisp boxing, and is young enough to take his career seriously now. He criticizes Josh Parisian as a bottom-feeder heavyweight, but acknowledges Parisian is not complete garbage. He predicts a decision win in a great scrap.

"I think I'm going to take him here his boxing looked somewhat crisp and he's young and he reminds me the type of guy where if you give him the opportunity in the UFC starts really taking his career seriously"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

Zane picks Pogues because he has faster, sharper hands and a good jab, and he showed the ability to increase his intensity late in fights. Parisian is a brawler who relies on toughness and chaos, but Pogues has a reach advantage and better technique. Zane notes that Parisian's only wins come when opponents fade, and Pogues has shown he can go the distance.

Pogues opened -170, now -246; Parisian opened +145, now +199. Zane says he doesn't understand the spread and thinks it should be a dead-even fight.
"I'll take pokes. He's got something resembling a prospects game. I mean, it's not good yet, but it's enough."
WIN vs Alan Baudot
TKO (punches) R2 3:04 · UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Parisian 0 42 of 68 61% 102 of 156 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:09
Alan Baudot 1 49 of 75 65% 56 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Parisian 0 25 of 41 60% 38 of 62 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:48
Alan Baudot 1 38 of 60 63% 45 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:41
2 Josh Parisian 0 17 of 27 62% 64 of 94 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:21
Alan Baudot 0 11 of 15 73% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Parisian 42 of 68 61% 27 of 53 11 of 11 4 of 4 22 of 39 2 of 4 18 of 25
Alan Baudot 49 of 75 65% 34 of 59 8 of 9 7 of 7 23 of 47 11 of 11 15 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Parisian 25 of 41 60% 13 of 29 8 of 8 4 of 4 17 of 32 2 of 2 6 of 7
Alan Baudot 38 of 60 63% 27 of 48 5 of 6 6 of 6 17 of 37 6 of 6 15 of 17
2 Josh Parisian 17 of 27 62% 14 of 24 3 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 7 0 of 2 12 of 18
Alan Baudot 11 of 15 73% 7 of 11 3 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 10 5 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Angelo picks Josh Parisian, citing his volume and forward pressure. He notes Parisian has shown takedowns in the past and could use them against Baudot, who has solid takedown defense but is at a disadvantage on the ground. He acknowledges Baudot is more dangerous but believes Parisian's output and potential wrestling will get the win.

"i like him to have the volume pressure forward and potentially work in takedowns like he did against rock martinez in that win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 21, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Alan Baudot

Big Brady picks Alan Baudot to win by decision, but with very low confidence. He calls it the '1-800 gambler fight of the week' and says nobody should bet on it. He was more impressed with Baudot's performance against Parker Porter (competitive) than Parisian's poor showings (sloppy, gasses early, 42% striking defense). He expects a sloppy, greasy heavyweight decision. He admits both fighters are not great.

"i'm going to take badou just because i was more impressed with them... i think he's less worse than a parisian and i think he does get it done by a sloppy greasy sweaty heavyweight decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Cody agrees with Paul, noting Baudot's lack of finishing power and Parisian's high output and durability. He thinks Parisian's pace will wear down Baudot as the fight goes on.

"give me josh parisian at that plus 100."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Paul picks the underdog Parisian, citing Baudot's lack of impressive wins and Parisian's durability and volume. He thinks Parisian can win by decision and notes Parisian by decision at +300 as a possible play.

Parisian by decision +300
"i'm gonna pick the the guy who's the underdog and as it stands right now josh parisian is the underdog"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alan Baudot

The host picks Alan Baudot, calling Josh Parisian a 'disgraceful human' and noting Baudot is in shape and takes his career seriously. He expects Baudot to be patient on the feet, find takedowns, and pick Parisian apart for a decision win (30-27 or 29-28). He mentions Baudot trains at a good gym with Cyril Gane.

decision win prediction
"i'm going to go with adam bideaux"
LOSS vs Don'Tale Mayes
TKO (elbows) R3 3:26 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Don'Tale Mayes 0 25 of 41 60% 117 of 147 6 of 8 75% 0 0 11:32
Josh Parisian 0 10 of 16 62% 24 of 33 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Don'Tale Mayes 0 6 of 14 42% 40 of 51 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:05
Josh Parisian 0 3 of 6 50% 6 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Don'Tale Mayes 0 13 of 15 86% 31 of 41 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:27
Josh Parisian 0 2 of 2 100% 5 of 6 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:18
3 Don'Tale Mayes 0 6 of 12 50% 46 of 55 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:00
Josh Parisian 0 5 of 8 62% 13 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Don'Tale Mayes 25 of 41 60% 15 of 31 8 of 8 2 of 2 13 of 25 3 of 3 9 of 13
Josh Parisian 10 of 16 62% 7 of 11 1 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 11 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Don'Tale Mayes 6 of 14 42% 4 of 12 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 8 0 of 0 4 of 6
Josh Parisian 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Don'Tale Mayes 13 of 15 86% 7 of 9 5 of 5 1 of 1 6 of 6 3 of 3 4 of 6
Josh Parisian 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Don'Tale Mayes 6 of 12 50% 4 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
Josh Parisian 5 of 8 62% 4 of 5 1 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 5 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Angelo picks Josh Parisian because he believes Parisian's chin will hold up against Mayes' power, and that Parisian has a slightly better gas tank and higher output. He notes that Parisian set the UFC significant strike record at heavyweight in his fight with Parker Porter, showing constant forward pressure. However, Angelo's biggest fear is a Mayes KO early, as Mayes has heavy hands. He thinks the odds are too wide in favor of Mayes and that this should be closer to a pick'em.

"I like josh to survive an early power pick up the pace and win a decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Big Brady picks the underdog Josh Parisian, liking his volume and toughness despite poor striking defense. He notes Parisian's gas tank is not great but he fights through it. He expects a sloppy fight and predicts Parisian wins a volume-based decision. He admits no one can be confident in this low-level fight.

decision
"I'm actually gonna take the dog here in josh parisian to get the upset I like his volume the gas tank's not there but he's still able to fight through it and I think he's going to win a volume …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

Cody slightly favors Mayes due to superior cardio and reach. He notes Mayes uses a good jab and stays on the outside, while Parisian gasses quickly. However, Cody doesn't like the -200 price and calls it a pass, suggesting live betting might be better.

"I gotta go with maze superior cardio cardio wins fights"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

Daniel Levi picks Don'Tale Mayes to win, though he is not sure how. He acknowledges Mayes's physical gifts (6'6", 81-inch reach) and decent striking, but notes he underperforms and slows down. Levi is unimpressed with Josh Parisian, who absorbs too many strikes and has poor defense. He believes Mayes's youth and athleticism should prevail, and expects Mayes to land the harder shots and possibly get a finish. Levi warns that Parisian could win a decision if Mayes fades, but still picks Mayes.

Mayes by KO/TKO; fight doesn't go to decision
"Give me Don'Tale Mayes to come out here and win I'm not sure how but just give me Don'Tale as my pick."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Jacob picks Josh Parisian but calls it a coin flip, expecting a sloppy fight. He notes that both fighters like to throw spinning attacks and that Parisian is slightly less sloppy with his hands higher. Jacob mentions that Mayes' hands are often low and he does wild spinning stuff. He doesn't feel great about the pick but leans Parisian.

"if i have to pick in this fight i'm gonna pick josh parisian i agree that the odds should be a pick em"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

The host leans towards Mayes by decision, noting that Mayes is more mobile and can stick and move, while Parisian is slow and plods forward. He thinks the fight goes to decision and likes the 'fight goes to decision' prop at +105. He is not confident enough to lay -200 on Mayes moneyline.

fight goes to decision (+105)
"I like the fight goes to decision here plus 105. and in terms of picking aside man i think maze is the side here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Paul leans Parisian as a dog, citing his higher volume and pressure. He notes that both fighters gas, but Parisian throws more. Paul thinks it's a 'dogger pass' and would take the plus money if forced to bet.

"Plus 170 on josh briesen is it pretty no it's pretty ugly but uh that's that's the side that would take my money if I had to bet it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Dec 13, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

The MMA Guru picks Don'Tale Mayes over Josh Parisian, though he admits both fighters are not very good. He cites Mayes' youth, power, reach advantage, and better athleticism. He notes Parisian has been disappointing recently and lost to Rook Martinez (though he got the win). He thinks Mayes is more technical and powerful on the feet.

"i'm gonna go with dontel mays here over josh parisian"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: The Korean Zombie vs. Ige · Jun 19, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Parisian 0 79 of 160 49% 100 of 186 1 of 7 14% 0 0 4:23
Roque Martinez 0 64 of 114 56% 245 of 309 0 of 0 --- 1 0 4:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Parisian 0 29 of 59 49% 35 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Roque Martinez 0 26 of 46 56% 84 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:40
2 Josh Parisian 0 28 of 44 63% 37 of 54 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:22
Roque Martinez 0 9 of 18 50% 82 of 99 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:08
3 Josh Parisian 0 22 of 57 38% 28 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:53
Roque Martinez 0 29 of 50 58% 79 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Parisian 79 of 160 49% 43 of 118 29 of 34 7 of 8 49 of 120 30 of 40 0 of 0
Roque Martinez 64 of 114 56% 48 of 98 15 of 15 1 of 1 39 of 84 25 of 30 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Parisian 29 of 59 49% 12 of 42 13 of 13 4 of 4 20 of 49 9 of 10 0 of 0
Roque Martinez 26 of 46 56% 21 of 41 5 of 5 0 of 0 13 of 30 13 of 16 0 of 0
2 Josh Parisian 28 of 44 63% 17 of 29 9 of 12 2 of 3 10 of 18 18 of 26 0 of 0
Roque Martinez 9 of 18 50% 5 of 14 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 13 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Josh Parisian 22 of 57 38% 14 of 47 7 of 9 1 of 1 19 of 53 3 of 4 0 of 0
Roque Martinez 29 of 50 58% 22 of 43 6 of 6 1 of 1 21 of 41 8 of 9 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Angelo picks Josh Parisian, citing his height and reach advantage, high volume, and improved conditioning. He thinks Parisian will pick Martinez apart at range and that Martinez's durability will prevent a finish, leading to a decision. He bet on the fight going to a decision at +145 and likes the over on strikes for both.

goes to a decision (+145, 1 unit); monkey knife fight: more more
"i have josh parisian as my pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 15, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Big Brady likes Parisian's volume and significant reach/height advantages, but is concerned about his cardio after gassing against Parker Porter. He thinks Parisian will land more shots and win a decision because Martinez is very durable and hard to finish.

win by decision
"I'll take josh parisian to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Cody picks Parisian by decision, noting Parisian's reach and volume advantage. He believes Martinez is durable but will be outpointed. Cody suggests the over 2.5 rounds or fight goes the distance as better plays, as both fighters lack finishing ability.

Parisian by decision +333; over 2.5 rounds +100; fight goes the distance +130
"i take prison by decision i really don't think he's putting away rogue martinez"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Josh Parisian

Daniel Levi picks Josh Parisian, noting that he is the bigger, more physical fighter with more skills. He thinks Parisian will take Martinez down and work on top. He acknowledges that Parisian lost to Parker Porter, but considers Porter a tough opponent. He believes Martinez is tough but lacks the skills to win at this level, and that Parisian will get his first UFC win.

"i'm gonna go parisian and get this one done my man"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Jacob also picks Josh Parisian, comparing his wild kicking style to a karate kid. He acknowledges the height advantage and thinks Parisian's volume will win the fight. He is slightly worried about Martinez's grappling but overall expects a sloppy fight that Parisian wins.

"i think josh wins the fight i think this is a sloppy mess of a fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 17, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Roque Martinez

The host picks Roque Martinez as an underdog, believing his durability, cardio, and pressure will overcome Josh Parisian, who tends to gas. He notes Martinez's leg kicks and boxing, and expects Parisian to fade after the first round. He predicts Martinez by decision, similar to the Parker Porter fight, and likes the over 1.5 rounds due to both fighters' durability. He is not putting hard-earned money on Martinez but sees value in the decision prop.

Martinez by decision at +350ish range; over 1.5 rounds at -185 (chalky but liked)
"i'm going rookie martinez by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Roque Martinez

Paul leans toward Martinez, citing his durability and toughness. He expects a sloppy heavyweight fight and is not confident. Paul bets over 1.5 rounds at -155, expecting the fight to last.

over 1.5 rounds -155
"give me rocky i guess if he had to put a gun to my head just i think you know i'll lean on durability toughness"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2021 (fight day)
Josh Parisian

The MMA Guru picks Josh Parisian to win by first-round TKO via spinning back fist and ground and pound. He believes Parisian will soften up Martinez's body with spinning back kicks, then land a spinning back fist to knock him down and finish with ground and pound against the cage. He expresses high confidence that Parisian will go for the spinning back fist.

spinning back fist KO, first round TKO
"i'm gonna go with josh parisian spinning back fist ko... first round tko for josh perisium"
LOSS vs Parker Porter
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Smith vs. Clark · Nov 28, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Parker Porter 0 114 of 226 50% 123 of 237 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
Josh Parisian 0 126 of 228 55% 164 of 275 2 of 4 50% 1 0 4:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Parker Porter 0 56 of 115 48% 61 of 122 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Josh Parisian 0 46 of 92 50% 57 of 104 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:10
2 Parker Porter 0 24 of 43 55% 27 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Parisian 0 30 of 46 65% 54 of 78 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:12
3 Parker Porter 0 34 of 68 50% 35 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Josh Parisian 0 50 of 90 55% 53 of 93 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Parker Porter 114 of 226 50% 71 of 173 35 of 44 8 of 9 89 of 190 25 of 36 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 126 of 228 55% 90 of 190 16 of 18 20 of 20 105 of 198 20 of 27 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Parker Porter 56 of 115 48% 38 of 92 18 of 22 0 of 1 38 of 89 18 of 26 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 46 of 92 50% 33 of 77 10 of 12 3 of 3 33 of 77 13 of 15 0 of 0
2 Parker Porter 24 of 43 55% 11 of 30 9 of 9 4 of 4 19 of 37 5 of 6 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 30 of 46 65% 18 of 34 4 of 4 8 of 8 25 of 35 4 of 8 1 of 3
3 Parker Porter 34 of 68 50% 22 of 51 8 of 13 4 of 4 32 of 64 2 of 4 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 50 of 90 55% 39 of 79 2 of 2 9 of 9 47 of 86 3 of 4 0 of 0
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Angelo picks Josh Parisian because he believes Parisian's chin will hold up against Mayes' power, and that Parisian has a slightly better gas tank and higher output. He notes that Parisian set the UFC significant strike record at heavyweight in his fight with Parker Porter, showing constant forward pressure. However, Angelo's biggest fear is a Mayes KO early, as Mayes has heavy hands. He thinks the odds are too wide in favor of Mayes and that this should be closer to a pick'em.

"I like josh to survive an early power pick up the pace and win a decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Big Brady picks the underdog Josh Parisian, liking his volume and toughness despite poor striking defense. He notes Parisian's gas tank is not great but he fights through it. He expects a sloppy fight and predicts Parisian wins a volume-based decision. He admits no one can be confident in this low-level fight.

decision
"I'm actually gonna take the dog here in josh parisian to get the upset I like his volume the gas tank's not there but he's still able to fight through it and I think he's going to win a volume based decision in a very very sloppy sloppy fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

Cody slightly favors Mayes due to superior cardio and reach. He notes Mayes uses a good jab and stays on the outside, while Parisian gasses quickly. However, Cody doesn't like the -200 price and calls it a pass, suggesting live betting might be better.

"I gotta go with maze superior cardio cardio wins fights"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

Daniel Levi picks Don'Tale Mayes to win, though he is not sure how. He acknowledges Mayes's physical gifts (6'6", 81-inch reach) and decent striking, but notes he underperforms and slows down. Levi is unimpressed with Josh Parisian, who absorbs too many strikes and has poor defense. He believes Mayes's youth and athleticism should prevail, and expects Mayes to land the harder shots and possibly get a finish. Levi warns that Parisian could win a decision if Mayes fades, but still picks Mayes.

Mayes by KO/TKO; fight doesn't go to decision
"Give me Don'Tale Mayes to come out here and win I'm not sure how but just give me Don'Tale as my pick."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Jacob picks Josh Parisian but calls it a coin flip, expecting a sloppy fight. He notes that both fighters like to throw spinning attacks and that Parisian is slightly less sloppy with his hands higher. Jacob mentions that Mayes' hands are often low and he does wild spinning stuff. He doesn't feel great about the pick but leans Parisian.

"if i have to pick in this fight i'm gonna pick josh parisian i agree that the odds should be a pick em"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

The host leans towards Mayes by decision, noting that Mayes is more mobile and can stick and move, while Parisian is slow and plods forward. He thinks the fight goes to decision and likes the 'fight goes to decision' prop at +105. He is not confident enough to lay -200 on Mayes moneyline.

fight goes to decision (+105)
"I like the fight goes to decision here plus 105. and in terms of picking aside man i think maze is the side here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Paul leans Parisian as a dog, citing his higher volume and pressure. He notes that both fighters gas, but Parisian throws more. Paul thinks it's a 'dogger pass' and would take the plus money if forced to bet.

"Plus 170 on josh briesen is it pretty no it's pretty ugly but uh that's that's the side that would take my money if I had to bet it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Dec 13, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

The MMA Guru picks Don'Tale Mayes over Josh Parisian, though he admits both fighters are not very good. He cites Mayes' youth, power, reach advantage, and better athleticism. He notes Parisian has been disappointing recently and lost to Rook Martinez (though he got the win). He thinks Mayes is more technical and powerful on the feet.

"i'm gonna go with dontel mays here over josh parisian"