Career Averages - Don'Tale Mayes
Career Averages - Josh Parisian
Don'Tale Mayes
Josh Parisian
Don'Tale Mayes - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 28 of 51 | 54% | 105 of 166 | 9 of 9 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 13:49 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 13 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thomas Petersen | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 12 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:34 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Thomas Petersen | 0 | 5 of 19 | 26% | 36 of 69 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:27 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Thomas Petersen | 0 | 22 of 29 | 75% | 57 of 78 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:48 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Petersen | 28 of 51 | 54% | 28 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 45 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 3 of 11 | 27% | 1 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thomas Petersen | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Thomas Petersen | 5 of 19 | 26% | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 16 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Thomas Petersen | 22 of 29 | 75% | 22 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 28 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo sees this as a straightforward matchup: if Thomas Petersen gets takedowns, he wins; if he stays on the feet too long, he gets knocked out. He notes that Don'Tale Mayes has struggled with grapplers recently, and Petersen took down his last opponent easily. He believes Petersen's wrestling will be the deciding factor.
Big Brady is confident in Thomas Petersen, expecting his best performance to date. He highlights Petersen's wrestling background and vicious ground and pound, noting that Mayes has poor takedown defense (57%) and looks bad when taken down, citing examples like Valter Walker's heel hook and Shamil Gaz's control. He questions Mayes's motivation, pointing out his social media silence and poor shape at weigh-ins. He predicts Petersen will take Mayes down and finish him by TKO in round two.
Mayes is an average heavyweight with a 5-5 UFC record. Petersen can dictate the pace with his developing striking and mix in takedowns. I expect Petersen to grind out a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Don'Tale Mayes as an underdog, despite acknowledging Mayes' poor record. He believes Mayes is more athletic on the feet, has a 7-inch reach advantage, and better cardio. He predicts Mayes will stuff takedowns and eventually get a TKO in round two, possibly after Petersen fails a takedown and Mayes gains top position.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valter Walker | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:58 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valter Walker | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:58 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valter Walker | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valter Walker | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo hesitantly picks Valter Walker, despite his hatred for Walker's embarrassing UFC debut. He reasons that Walker has good takedowns and Mayes is useless when taken down. However, he notes Walker's striking is awful and his cardio is suspect, so if Mayes can survive early, he could win. He says he cannot bet Walker at -165.
Big Brady picks Walker by decision, citing Mayes' poor takedown defense (58%) and inability to get up once taken down. He notes Mayes has a striking advantage but lacks power to hurt Walker. Walker should get takedowns easily and control Mayes on the ground, though he lacks finishing ability.
Expecting a slow, grueling fight. Walker will likely keep Mayes in defensive positions against the cage or on the ground, using his grappling-heavy approach to nullify Mayes' offense. Walker wins on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Valter Walker over Don'Tale Mayes, reasoning that Mayes has a history of losing and his wins are against low-level heavyweights. He acknowledges Walker's poor UFC debut but attributes it to circumstances, and believes Walker's regional success and potential will prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamil Gaziev | 0 | 31 of 46 | 67% | 89 of 114 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 11:58 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 27 of 58 | 46% | 57 of 95 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamil Gaziev | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 24 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:32 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 12 of 17 | 70% | 12 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Shamil Gaziev | 0 | 21 of 28 | 75% | 29 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:28 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 20 of 39 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Shamil Gaziev | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 36 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:58 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 25 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamil Gaziev | 31 of 46 | 67% | 22 of 37 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 25 | 15 of 17 | 4 of 4 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 27 of 58 | 46% | 18 of 45 | 5 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 53 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamil Gaziev | 8 of 13 | 61% | 7 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 12 of 17 | 70% | 7 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Shamil Gaziev | 21 of 28 | 75% | 13 of 20 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 12 | 15 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 10 of 25 | 40% | 9 of 22 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 21 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Shamil Gaziev | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 5 of 16 | 31% | 2 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gaziev (-238), Mayes (+195)
Round 1
The lone heavyweight contest on the fight card plays out on the prelims rather than slotted undeservedly on the main card. Fresh off a deflating headlining loss to suffer his first pro defeat, Gaziev (12-1, 1-1 UFC) is hungry to bounce back from that setback at the expense of Kentucky judoka Mayes (11-6, 1 NC; 4-4, 1 NC UFC). The reputation of the fictitious Kentucky Judo Federation is at stake over the next 15 minutes, and referee Keith Peterson is ready to handle the nonsense. There is a clap of hands, and Mayes says hello with punches, a low kick and a looping left hand. Gaziev backs him off with a one-two, and Mayes fires back but is tagged with a right hand. Mayes backs up to the wall as he tries to get his mind right, and Gaziev shoots for a double and clasps his hands. Gaziev slams his man to the floor, and the entire Octagon shudders at the impact. The Bahraini by way of Russia moves to half guard with ease, where he frames off the face with his elbow and jams it down. Gaziev frees his hand from the grasp of his foe to slug him in the chops with two right hands, and he keeps “Lord Kong” flat on his back with no sign of getting back to his feet as there are over three minutes left in the round. Gaziev considers taking side control but prefers the half guard to maintain control, and he winds up with a hard right hand that bounces off the forehead. Gaziev lands right hands when he is able to wriggle his arm out of the grip of his adversary, landing enough to keep Peterson from standing them up. Gaziev presses down with his shoulder for a potential arm-triangle choke, and he sits up to land more offense. Gaziev fights off Mayes trying to sit up and punches him in the face. Gaziev hooks his arm around the neck again to keep Mayes flat, lumping him up with short but powerful blows. When the 10-second clapper sounds, Gaziev punches his way into an arm-triangle choke from the other side, but the horn toots before it is completed.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Round 2
The heavyweights meander towards one another as the second round opens, and Mayes keeps his man honest by busting him in the chops with several hooks. The blows are strong but largely one, and then another, rather than chained together. Mayes gets in an uppercut and shoots for his own takedown, and Gaziev grabs pursues a takedown. Mayes grabs the shorts of his foe, pulling them way up, and Peterson warns him for the grab and calls time to issue another warning instead of taking a point. They resume where they left off, and Mayes ducks, seeing an elbow whiz by his head. Mayes gets back to boxing range, slinging hooks, and Gaziev clashes forward and slams his head into the chin of his foe. Peterson observes it but does not call time, and Gaziev fights his way into a clinch as Mayes is not overly thrilled. Gaziev drives knees to the solar plexus, and he rings Mayes’ bell with an elbow. Mayes staggers back, away from the clinch, but Gaziev snags him again and starts peppering him again with knees. As the heavyweights slow to a crawl, the commentary booth remarks that the temperature feels like over 100 degrees Fahrenheit with humidity in the arena around 75%. The big men are pouring sweat and are totally wiped out, kneeing one another with short shots as Gaziev is warned by draping his hands over the fencing. Mayes sneaks in a left hand, and Gaziev pays him back with a thumping knee. Gaziev has no interest in letting go or deviating from his approach, clinging to the Kentucky native and spamming knees until the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev
Round 3
Mayes starts out the final round with a fresh head of steam, racing in with punches that are telegraphed and largely miss the mark. Gaziev avoids some, eats others, and responds when caught. Mayes swings hard to the liver, and Gaziev runs at him and bowls him over, landing in half guard and returning to smothering top control form. Gaziev stays just busy enough to not have Peterson warn him for inactivity, smacking Mayes in the dome and otherwise making his life miserable. Gaziev holds on with his forearm, and Mayes complains about something. Mayes starts talking to Gaziev, and Peterson does call for more action. Gaziev answers with a few fists, and Mayes answers him with words that Gaziev may or may not understand. Gaziev postures up to drop down heavy left hands, and Mayes keeps chattering and softly lands punches to the side from his back. Mayes holds on and is trying to have a conversation, mentioning that the fans are booing Gaziev. Gaziev controls and grinds, sapping time away and ending the rough matchup disappointingly.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev (30-27 Gaziev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev (30-27 Gaziev)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaziev (30-27 Gaziev)
The Official Result
Shamil Gaziev def. Don’Tale Mayes via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo is confident Gaziev bounces back from his first loss, believing he bit off more than he could chew in his last fight. He thinks Gaziev is the more powerful striker with good takedowns, and that this is a good rebound fight. He expects Gaziev to win but notes cardio concerns.
Big Brady thinks Gaziev should be able to destroy Mayes if he is anywhere near the real deal, comparing Mayes to Martin Budai whom Gaziev finished impressively. He notes Mayes does not like getting hit and has been finished on the mat multiple times. He worries about Gaziev's gas tank if the fight extends past 1.5 rounds but predicts an early finish by first-round knockout.
Cody picks Shamil Gaziev, noting that Mayes has poor takedown defense and has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. He thinks Gaziev can use his wrestling and clinch to neutralize Mayes's range striking. Cody acknowledges Gaziev's cardio issues but believes in a three-round fight he can win the first two rounds. He also mentions that Mayes is flat-footed and struggles to get up when taken down.
Daniel picks Gaziev, believing he should be able to pin Mayes against the fence and dirty box him. He notes Mayes is inconsistent and has lost to lower-level competition, while Gaziev's only loss is to a top-10 guy. He expects a similar performance to Gaziev's win over Bud.
Gaziev is coming off a main event loss and will be pissed off. He should steamroll Mayes, finishing him in the first or second round.
Paul picks Shamil Gaziev, noting that Mayes has been taken down by many opponents and has poor get-up game. He thinks Gaziev can use his wrestling to control the fight. Paul acknowledges that both fighters are low-level heavyweights and that Mayes could win if he stuffs takedowns, but he leans toward Gaziev. He also mentions that the fight could be slow and the over might be a play.
The MMA Guru picks Shamil Gaziev over Don'Tale Mayes, despite calling Gaziev 'awful'. He thinks Mayes is 'a bit dumb' and that Gaziev's grappling will be the difference. He expects Gaziev to take Mayes down and wear him out, possibly catching a spinning attack from Mayes. He predicts a fourth-round TKO, though the fight is three rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Don'Tale Mayes | 1 | 67 of 183 | 36% | 73 of 190 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Caio Machado | 0 | 76 of 159 | 47% | 77 of 160 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Don'Tale Mayes | 1 | 20 of 55 | 36% | 26 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Caio Machado | 0 | 19 of 40 | 47% | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 26 of 61 | 42% | 26 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Caio Machado | 0 | 25 of 53 | 47% | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 21 of 67 | 31% | 21 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Caio Machado | 0 | 32 of 66 | 48% | 33 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Don'Tale Mayes | 67 of 183 | 36% | 42 of 140 | 18 of 29 | 7 of 14 | 67 of 181 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Caio Machado | 76 of 159 | 47% | 33 of 103 | 25 of 33 | 18 of 23 | 75 of 158 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Don'Tale Mayes | 20 of 55 | 36% | 12 of 39 | 7 of 12 | 1 of 4 | 20 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Caio Machado | 19 of 40 | 47% | 6 of 23 | 6 of 8 | 7 of 9 | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Don'Tale Mayes | 26 of 61 | 42% | 18 of 50 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 26 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Caio Machado | 25 of 53 | 47% | 13 of 38 | 7 of 9 | 5 of 6 | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Don'Tale Mayes | 21 of 67 | 31% | 12 of 51 | 7 of 11 | 2 of 5 | 21 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Caio Machado | 32 of 66 | 48% | 14 of 42 | 12 of 16 | 6 of 8 | 31 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks the underdog Caio Machado, believing he is the more technical striker with better footwork. He thinks Don'Tale Mayes has one-punch power but will struggle to land big shots, and Mayes' wrestling is not great. He expects Machado to defend takedowns and win a boring, sloppy heavyweight decision. He notes Mayes is a 2-to-1 favorite but favors the dog.
Cody picks Mayes, citing his experience against better competition and his reach advantage. He thinks Mayes' jab and switch-hitting style will be effective, and that Machado's padded record and poor takedown defense will be exposed.
Daniel argues Machado is underrated, citing his striking ratio (7 strikes landed per minute, 2 absorbed) and 82% takedown defense. He calls Mayes one of the worst heavyweights, with poor fight IQ and a history of losing. He thinks Machado will win by wanting it more and having higher output.
Machado will dictate the pace and be on the front foot, pressuring Mayes. Mayes has a history of quitting when faced with resistance. Machado's BJJ and pressure style should cause Mayes issues, and I expect Machado to finish him in the second or third round.
Paul picks Machado, believing his volume striking will edge out Mayes. He notes Machado's youth and potential, but admits Mayes' takedown game could be a problem. He calls it a 50/50 fight and slightly favors Machado.
The MMA Guru picks Don'Tale Mayes as an underdog. He notes that Caio Machado is used to being the taller fighter and keeps his hands down, which could be exploited by Mayes' height and reach. He criticizes Machado's headbutts and believes Mayes' athleticism and one-shot finishing power give him an edge. He also mentions that Machado's win over Mick Parkin was aided by head clashes and that Mayes' KO of Andre Arlovski shows his potential.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 0 | 70 of 154 | 45% | 91 of 180 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 79 of 159 | 49% | 105 of 190 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodrigo Nascimento | 0 | 33 of 69 | 47% | 41 of 79 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 28 of 60 | 46% | 35 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 | |
| 2 | Rodrigo Nascimento | 0 | 20 of 40 | 50% | 30 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:48 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 23 of 50 | 46% | 36 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rodrigo Nascimento | 0 | 17 of 45 | 37% | 20 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 28 of 49 | 57% | 34 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 70 of 154 | 45% | 51 of 132 | 9 of 11 | 10 of 11 | 58 of 134 | 12 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 79 of 159 | 49% | 39 of 103 | 30 of 44 | 10 of 12 | 55 of 128 | 24 of 31 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodrigo Nascimento | 33 of 69 | 47% | 28 of 64 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 30 of 61 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 28 of 60 | 46% | 14 of 36 | 10 of 18 | 4 of 6 | 21 of 50 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rodrigo Nascimento | 20 of 40 | 50% | 13 of 33 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 33 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 23 of 50 | 46% | 13 of 36 | 9 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 37 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rodrigo Nascimento | 17 of 45 | 37% | 10 of 35 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 13 of 40 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 28 of 49 | 57% | 12 of 31 | 11 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 22 of 41 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Nascimento, trusting his grappling and cleaner path to victory. He notes Mayes has heavy hands and power, but Nascimento has a good chin. He hopes for an over 1.5 rounds line and would bet that, expecting Mayes to be more defensively aware after their first fight. He advises not betting on sloppy heavyweight fights otherwise.
Big Brady picks Rodrigo Nascimento to win by second-round submission. He notes that Nascimento won their first fight by submission and has improved at American Top Team. He believes Nascimento is better everywhere, with a BJJ base and 60% submission rate. He mentions Mayes has 56% takedown defense and can be taken down. He acknowledges Mayes has power but favors Nascimento.
Daniel Levi picks Rodrigo Nascimento, recalling that Nascimento dominated Mayes in their first fight, out-striking him and taking him down at will. He notes that Nascimento has been motivated in training, taking his diet and preparation seriously. Levi acknowledges Mayes' physical attributes and one-punch knockout power, but believes Nascimento's mental edge and proven superiority will carry him. He has concerns about Nascimento's chin and cardio, but still favors him to win.
James has a different take than most, believing the +160 price on Mayes is due to the previous fight result rather than skill disparity. He notes that Mayes didn't look bad in the first fight, getting up from bottom and landing decent strikes before giving up his back. He thinks if Mayes doesn't give up his back, the fight is a pick 'em. He also mentions that Nascimento is hittable and Mayes could get a knockout. However, he is not massively passionate about this pick, calling it more of a hunch.
The MMA Guru picks Rodrigo Nascimento over Don'Tale Mayes. He dismisses Mayes' win over Andrei Arlovski as facing an aging fighter. The Guru notes Mayes looked poor against Augusto Sakai and Hamdy Abdelwahab, being held against the cage. He believes Nascimento's grappling and clinch work will be the difference, and he also favors Nascimento's inside boxing. He predicts a 29-28 decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 24 of 56 | 42% | 26 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 1 | 25 of 87 | 28% | 28 of 91 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 14 of 25 | 56% | 16 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 0 | 8 of 47 | 17% | 11 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 10 of 31 | 32% | 10 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 1 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 17 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Don'Tale Mayes | 24 of 56 | 42% | 10 of 36 | 9 of 10 | 5 of 10 | 24 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 25 of 87 | 28% | 14 of 58 | 4 of 14 | 7 of 15 | 22 of 82 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Don'Tale Mayes | 14 of 25 | 56% | 5 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 7 | 14 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 8 of 47 | 17% | 5 of 33 | 1 of 7 | 2 of 7 | 7 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Don'Tale Mayes | 10 of 31 | 32% | 5 of 24 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 10 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 17 of 40 | 42% | 9 of 25 | 3 of 7 | 5 of 8 | 15 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Angelo picks Arlovski, believing he is the better fighter in every category except age and chin. He thinks Arlovski's technical striking and experience will overcome Mayes' power. He is concerned about Arlovski's chin after the last fight but still expects him to win. He would bet Arlovski if the line keeps moving.
Cody picks Arlovski, agreeing with Paul. He notes that middling heavyweights often go to decision and that Arlovski is a fan favorite who gets close decisions. Cody points out that Mayes doesn't use his physical advantages and that Arlovski's experience and durability will carry him. He also mentions that Mayes has been knocked out by lesser fighters and that Arlovski is the safer pick.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Mayes is a 'giant ball of wasted potential' who has never realized his athletic gifts. He points out that Arlovski has consistently beaten lower-tier heavyweights who lack a real striking game or finishing ability. Mayes' tendency to throw single strikes and his poor grappling will be exploited by Arlovski's steady pressure and clinch work.
Daniel picks Arlovski, though he admits he hasn't taped the fight deeply. He thinks Mayes has mental fragility and Arlovski's veteran savvy could eke out a decision. He notes that Arlovski has been quitting in fights but Mayes may not bring that out of him. He considers a sprinkle on Arlovski by decision.
Jacob picks Mayes, citing his speed and athleticism advantage over the 44-year-old Arlovski. He thinks Mayes should use range and volume to break down Arlovski's chin. He notes Arlovski looked old and uninterested in his last fight. Jacob is betting $100 on Mayes at +120.
Mayes is a hybrid heavyweight who mixes takedowns behind punches and works well in the clinch. Arlovski is reliant on striking and tends to quit when grappling gets tough. Mayes will tie him up, land takedowns, and control the fight to win a decision. The over 2.5 is the preferred bet.
Paul picks Arlovski at plus money. He notes Mayes has low output and doesn't use his reach or speed advantage. Paul mentions Arlovski's recent wins over low-output fighters and that the UFC seems to give him favorable matchups. He thinks Mayes is overrated as a favorite and that Arlovski can squeak out a decision. Paul also recalls losing money on Mayes in the past, making him hesitant to trust him.
The MMA Guru picks Andrei Arlovski, believing this is one of the heavyweight fights Arlovski wins. He criticizes Don'Tale Mayes for being hesitant on the feet and getting blanketed by Augusto Sakai. He expects Arlovski to frustrate Mayes at range with leg kicks and small shots, while Mayes will be gun-shy and not throw enough. He acknowledges an upset is possible but thinks Arlovski's skill at this level of heavyweight will take over.
Zane picks Arlovski based on his consistent ability to outwork opponents who lack a high-output striking game. He notes that Mayes is a talented but dysfunctional fighter with poor wrestling and no coherent game plan. Arlovski's jab, clinch work, and steady pace have proven too much for similar fighters like Felipe Lins and Tanner Boser. Zane believes Mayes' athleticism won't compensate for his lack of structure.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augusto Sakai | 0 | 53 of 95 | 55% | 107 of 173 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 8:51 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 29 of 62 | 46% | 77 of 121 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:46 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Augusto Sakai | 0 | 19 of 38 | 50% | 31 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:58 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 13 of 20 | 65% | 29 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 | |
| 2 | Augusto Sakai | 0 | 16 of 27 | 59% | 46 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:52 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 31 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:06 | |
| 3 | Augusto Sakai | 0 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 30 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:01 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 12 of 27 | 44% | 17 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augusto Sakai | 53 of 95 | 55% | 27 of 65 | 18 of 22 | 8 of 8 | 21 of 49 | 30 of 42 | 2 of 4 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 29 of 62 | 46% | 15 of 46 | 10 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 56 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Augusto Sakai | 19 of 38 | 50% | 10 of 28 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 14 | 14 of 24 | 0 of 0 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 13 of 20 | 65% | 4 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Augusto Sakai | 16 of 27 | 59% | 6 of 16 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 20 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 4 of 15 | 26% | 2 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Augusto Sakai | 18 of 30 | 60% | 11 of 21 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 15 | 10 of 11 | 2 of 4 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 12 of 27 | 44% | 9 of 22 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Connor picks Sakai, believing he can edge out a win by slowing the fight down with clinch work and using his durability. He notes that Mayes' inability to hit the same spot repeatedly makes it unlikely he'll knock Sakai out, and Sakai will do just enough work to pull out a decision. Connor acknowledges it's a close fight and that Sakai's confidence may be shaken, but he trusts Sakai's meat-and-potatoes approach over Mayes' chaos.
Zane picks Mayes despite his lack of structure, because Sakai's confidence has taken a hit after four straight finishes. He notes that Mayes is athletic, durable, and willing to try takedowns, and Sakai is not good on the ground. However, Zane admits he has no good reason to pick Mayes and calls it a coin flip, but he feels Sakai is not feeling himself lately.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamdy Abdelwahab | 0 | 47 of 116 | 40% | 54 of 123 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 1 | 58 of 110 | 52% | 106 of 164 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 6:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamdy Abdelwahab | 0 | 11 of 40 | 27% | 11 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 1 | 21 of 40 | 52% | 44 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:00 | |
| 2 | Hamdy Abdelwahab | 0 | 24 of 56 | 42% | 27 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 19 of 41 | 46% | 20 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:45 | |
| 3 | Hamdy Abdelwahab | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 16 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 18 of 29 | 62% | 42 of 55 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:51 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamdy Abdelwahab | 47 of 116 | 40% | 28 of 90 | 12 of 17 | 7 of 9 | 45 of 111 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 58 of 110 | 52% | 51 of 102 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 30 of 74 | 2 of 3 | 26 of 33 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamdy Abdelwahab | 11 of 40 | 27% | 6 of 31 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 11 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 21 of 40 | 52% | 19 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 8 | |
| 2 | Hamdy Abdelwahab | 24 of 56 | 42% | 14 of 44 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 51 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 19 of 41 | 46% | 14 of 36 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | |
| 3 | Hamdy Abdelwahab | 12 of 20 | 60% | 8 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 18 of 29 | 62% | 18 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 14 of 16 |
Big Brady picks Don'Tale Mayes to win by knockout in the second or third round. He is very critical of Abdelwahab's level of competition, cardio, and ground game, calling him not UFC caliber. He expects Mayes to use his size advantage and eventually finish Abdelwahab as he slows down.
Cody picks Mayes, noting that Abdelwahab is a short-notice replacement who didn't earn his way to the UFC. He describes Abdelwahab as an Egyptian wrestling champion but with a small wrestling program, and his striking is very rudimentary. Mayes has a huge size advantage (6'6" with 81" reach) and has been improving his grappling. He thinks Mayes will feast on Abdelwahab, staying on the outside and chopping away. He also mentions he got Mayes at -125 earlier.
Daniel picks Mayes on principle, citing his experience and dues paid. He notes Mayes has fought tougher competition, including Ciryl Gane, and has a two-fight win streak. He heavily criticizes Abdelwahab's resume, calling his opponents 'ice cream vendors' and noting he has only 3 pro fights, all mismatches. He also questions the level of Egyptian Greco-Roman wrestling, citing a friend who said it's not comparable to US or Russian wrestling. He acknowledges Mayes isn't elite but believes experience will prevail.
Preet bet Mayes at -132, noting Hamdi's sketchy competition and poor cardio. He expects Mayes to keep distance with his jab and footwork, survive the first round, and take over as Hamdi slows down. He references Mayes' wrestling-heavy win over Josh Parisian as evidence of his late-round finishing ability.
Paul also picks Mayes, agreeing that Abdelwahab is a short-notice replacement who is not a legitimate prospect. He notes that Mayes has been improving, with good wins over Josh Parisian and Roque Martinez. He thinks Mayes' size and reach advantage will be key, and that Abdelwahab's wrestling won't be enough. He also mentions that Mayes has been working on his grappling and shouldn't be mistaken for the same guy from a few fights back.
The MMA Guru picks Don'Tale Mayes by TKO in the second round. He expects Hamdy Abdelwahab to come out fast with takedowns and pressure, but will gas out in round two. Mayes will then take over with body work, jabs, and a counter shot that rocks Hamdy, leading to ground-and-pound elbows.
Josh Parisian - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robelis Despaigne | 1 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robelis Despaigne | 1 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robelis Despaigne | 7 of 9 | 77% | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Josh Parisian | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robelis Despaigne | 7 of 9 | 77% | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Josh Parisian | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Robelis Despaigne despite it being his UFC debut, citing his Olympic taekwondo background, insane power, and 19-second cumulative knockout time in his last three fights. He acknowledges Parisian is durable and has experience, but believes Parisian lacks one-punch power to hurt Despaigne. He considers a high-risk parlay with Despaigne.
Big Brady picks Robelis Despaigne to win by first-round knockout in under 60 seconds. He notes Despaigne's incredible reach and power, and that all his fights have ended quickly. He believes Josh Parisian will try to strike with Despaigne and get knocked out. He also mentions a PrizePicks play on Despaigne's fight time under 4.75 minutes.
Cody is intrigued by Despaigne's physical attributes and knockout power but notes his lack of experience and questionable grappling. He thinks Despaigne will likely knock out Parisian early, but at -330, he's not confident enough to bet heavily.
Daniel picks Despaigne via knockout, citing his athleticism, reach, and power. He notes Parisian is a bottom-of-the-barrel heavyweight and Despaigne is too athletic for him. However, he warns that if Parisian gets double underhooks and takes it past round one, Despaigne could gas out. He expects a quick knockout.
Despaigne has insane power and speed, but there is not enough film on him against legitimate competition. He was held up against the cage in his debut, and his takedown defense is untested. Parisian has good durability, forward pressure, and a grinding style that could wear on Despaigne. If Parisian can survive the first couple minutes of each round and get his cage grind going, he is live to win. I have no confidence in the chalky spot on Despaigne, so I lean Parisian by decision.
Paul thinks Despaigne is a fraud waiting to be exposed. He notes that Parisian is a big heavyweight who can take Despaigne down and grind on him. He believes if Parisian can survive the first round, he has a good chance to win.
The MMA Guru is extremely confident in Robelis Despaigne, mocking Josh Parisian's physique and conditioning. He notes Despaigne is an Olympic medalist in Taekwondo with a massive reach and athleticism, while Parisian is out of shape and has been finished by lower-level heavyweights. He predicts a TKO victory.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Buday | 0 | 26 of 61 | 42% | 27 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 42 of 67 | 62% | 62 of 91 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martin Buday | 0 | 26 of 61 | 42% | 27 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 42 of 67 | 62% | 62 of 91 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:56 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Buday | 26 of 61 | 42% | 15 of 49 | 6 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 47 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Parisian | 42 of 67 | 62% | 35 of 60 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 49 | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martin Buday | 26 of 61 | 42% | 15 of 49 | 6 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 47 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Parisian | 42 of 67 | 62% | 35 of 60 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 49 | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Buday fairly confidently, noting Buday has power, solid footwork, and better cardio. He thinks Buday should be the better striker and have takedown defense to keep it standing. He expects a decision win and suggests looking at round lines, possibly over 2.5 rounds.
Big Brady picks Martin Buday to win by decision, but is very hesitant. He notes Buday's skills (brown belt in BJJ, good top game) but criticizes his game plan of holding opponents against the cage and not using takedowns. He points out that Buday has attempted zero takedowns in his three UFC fights. He believes Buday could easily win if he wrestles, but doubts he will. He calls the fight 'disgusting' and says he wants nothing to do with it.
Cody picks Buday, expecting a boring decision. He notes Buday's style of clinching and controlling against the cage, and that Parisian has poor cardio and has been taken down easily. He thinks Buday will win by volume and control, and recommends the over 2.5 rounds and Buday by decision. He also mentions Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.
James sees value on Parisian at +180, calling Buday a 'cage push or bust' fighter who gassed against Jake Collier. He thinks Parisian might not gas as badly and the fight is closer than the odds suggest. However, he is not confident due to the volatility and may not bet it.
Buday is on an 11-fight winning streak and wears on opponents in the clinch, taking them down and doing damage from top. Parisian is an average heavyweight with one speed and alternating wins and losses. Buday's hard-nosed approach and tight striking defense should allow him to pull away late and win by decision. However, the line at -200 is a bit wide as Parisian could have grappling success.
Paul picks Buday, agreeing it will be a slow heavyweight fight. He notes Parisian's poor performances and that Buday is younger and more effective in the clinch. He thinks Buday by decision is likely and likes the over 2.5 rounds. He also mentions Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.
The MMA Guru picks Martin Buday over Josh Parisian, stating that Parisian is dangerous but Buday has better conditioning, clinch work, and cardio for a heavyweight. He notes Buday's controversial win over Lukasz Brzeski and his performance against Jake Collier. He expects Buday to outwork Parisian against the cage and in the clinch, leading to a decision or late finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Pogues | 0 | 37 of 113 | 32% | 51 of 137 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:12 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 33 of 60 | 55% | 49 of 79 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 5:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamal Pogues | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 13 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:54 | |
| 2 | Jamal Pogues | 0 | 13 of 39 | 33% | 17 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 17 of 24 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 | |
| 3 | Jamal Pogues | 0 | 12 of 46 | 26% | 19 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 18 of 28 | 64% | 19 of 30 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:35 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Pogues | 37 of 113 | 32% | 19 of 85 | 14 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 35 of 110 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Parisian | 33 of 60 | 55% | 29 of 56 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 47 | 9 of 9 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamal Pogues | 12 of 28 | 42% | 7 of 20 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Parisian | 7 of 18 | 38% | 6 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | |
| 2 | Jamal Pogues | 13 of 39 | 33% | 6 of 26 | 5 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Parisian | 8 of 14 | 57% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jamal Pogues | 12 of 46 | 26% | 6 of 39 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Parisian | 18 of 28 | 64% | 15 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 23 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Parisian, citing his volume striking and UFC experience. He notes Parisian set heavyweight significant strike records and has a grappling win over Alan Baudot. Angelo thinks Pogues is a decent but not powerful heavyweight who doesn't move his head. He believes Parisian's higher-level experience will be the difference, and the line movement favoring Pogues is surprising. He considers a Parisian by decision bet at plus odds.
Big Brady sees a clear path for Pogues via wrestling, as Parisian has terrible takedown defense and get-up game, as shown in the Dontale Mayes fight. He notes that Pogues didn't wrestle in his last fight, which is a concern, but if he does, he should dominate. He predicts a decision win, but warns against betting the -250 line.
Cody picks Pogues but doesn't like the -240 line for an unproven UFC debutant. He notes Pogues is young (27), has good cardio for a heavyweight, and has a wrestling advantage. However, he warns that Pogues' striking is mechanical and he's there to get countered. He also mentions Parisian's only good characteristic is being a bona fide heavyweight, and if Parisian gets top position, it's a big body to move off. He says it's a greasy heavyweight spot and he's not confident.
Connor picks Parisian because he is bigger and can make the fight brutal. He thinks Pogues' gas tank may not hold up against Parisian's pressure, and Parisian's toughness and aggression could wear Pogues down. Connor notes that Pogues has not faced a fighter like Parisian who will crash into him repeatedly.
Jacob picks Pogues but is not confident enough to bet. He thinks Pogues has a wrestling advantage and will be more active with his jab, outworking Parisian. However, he notes Pogues isn't a finisher and Parisian has a dog in him. Jacob expects a sloppy, close fight and might consider a live bet on Parisian if the fight is close in the third round.
Pogues has a strong grappling base and good cardio, which should overwhelm Parisian, who fades in deep waters. Parisian's striking is flashy but his gas tank is poor. Pogues can take him down and grind out a decision, or even finish late.
Paul also picks Pogues but is hesitant. He notes Parisian's wrestling narrative is overblown, as he was taken down by Parker Porter and Dantale Maze. He says Pogues should have speed, technical striking, and cardio advantages. However, he acknowledges Parisian has a size advantage (20-25 pounds) and could use it against the cage. He says he loves betting underdogs but cannot get on board with Parisian.
The MMA Guru picks Jamal Pogues, though he wasn't impressed by his Contender Series performance. He notes Pogues has a long reach and somewhat crisp boxing, and is young enough to take his career seriously now. He criticizes Josh Parisian as a bottom-feeder heavyweight, but acknowledges Parisian is not complete garbage. He predicts a decision win in a great scrap.
Zane picks Pogues because he has faster, sharper hands and a good jab, and he showed the ability to increase his intensity late in fights. Parisian is a brawler who relies on toughness and chaos, but Pogues has a reach advantage and better technique. Zane notes that Parisian's only wins come when opponents fade, and Pogues has shown he can go the distance.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 42 of 68 | 61% | 102 of 156 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:09 |
| Alan Baudot | 1 | 49 of 75 | 65% | 56 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Parisian | 0 | 25 of 41 | 60% | 38 of 62 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Alan Baudot | 1 | 38 of 60 | 63% | 45 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:41 | |
| 2 | Josh Parisian | 0 | 17 of 27 | 62% | 64 of 94 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 |
| Alan Baudot | 0 | 11 of 15 | 73% | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Parisian | 42 of 68 | 61% | 27 of 53 | 11 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 39 | 2 of 4 | 18 of 25 |
| Alan Baudot | 49 of 75 | 65% | 34 of 59 | 8 of 9 | 7 of 7 | 23 of 47 | 11 of 11 | 15 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Parisian | 25 of 41 | 60% | 13 of 29 | 8 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 7 |
| Alan Baudot | 38 of 60 | 63% | 27 of 48 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 37 | 6 of 6 | 15 of 17 | |
| 2 | Josh Parisian | 17 of 27 | 62% | 14 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 2 | 12 of 18 |
| Alan Baudot | 11 of 15 | 73% | 7 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Josh Parisian, citing his volume and forward pressure. He notes Parisian has shown takedowns in the past and could use them against Baudot, who has solid takedown defense but is at a disadvantage on the ground. He acknowledges Baudot is more dangerous but believes Parisian's output and potential wrestling will get the win.
Big Brady picks Alan Baudot to win by decision, but with very low confidence. He calls it the '1-800 gambler fight of the week' and says nobody should bet on it. He was more impressed with Baudot's performance against Parker Porter (competitive) than Parisian's poor showings (sloppy, gasses early, 42% striking defense). He expects a sloppy, greasy heavyweight decision. He admits both fighters are not great.
Cody agrees with Paul, noting Baudot's lack of finishing power and Parisian's high output and durability. He thinks Parisian's pace will wear down Baudot as the fight goes on.
Paul picks the underdog Parisian, citing Baudot's lack of impressive wins and Parisian's durability and volume. He thinks Parisian can win by decision and notes Parisian by decision at +300 as a possible play.
The host picks Alan Baudot, calling Josh Parisian a 'disgraceful human' and noting Baudot is in shape and takes his career seriously. He expects Baudot to be patient on the feet, find takedowns, and pick Parisian apart for a decision win (30-27 or 29-28). He mentions Baudot trains at a good gym with Cyril Gane.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 25 of 41 | 60% | 117 of 147 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 11:32 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 24 of 33 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 40 of 51 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 13 of 15 | 86% | 31 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:27 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 5 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 | |
| 3 | Don'Tale Mayes | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 46 of 55 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:00 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 13 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Don'Tale Mayes | 25 of 41 | 60% | 15 of 31 | 8 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 13 |
| Josh Parisian | 10 of 16 | 62% | 7 of 11 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 11 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Don'Tale Mayes | 6 of 14 | 42% | 4 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 |
| Josh Parisian | 3 of 6 | 50% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Don'Tale Mayes | 13 of 15 | 86% | 7 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 |
| Josh Parisian | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Don'Tale Mayes | 6 of 12 | 50% | 4 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Josh Parisian | 5 of 8 | 62% | 4 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Josh Parisian because he believes Parisian's chin will hold up against Mayes' power, and that Parisian has a slightly better gas tank and higher output. He notes that Parisian set the UFC significant strike record at heavyweight in his fight with Parker Porter, showing constant forward pressure. However, Angelo's biggest fear is a Mayes KO early, as Mayes has heavy hands. He thinks the odds are too wide in favor of Mayes and that this should be closer to a pick'em.
Big Brady picks the underdog Josh Parisian, liking his volume and toughness despite poor striking defense. He notes Parisian's gas tank is not great but he fights through it. He expects a sloppy fight and predicts Parisian wins a volume-based decision. He admits no one can be confident in this low-level fight.
Cody slightly favors Mayes due to superior cardio and reach. He notes Mayes uses a good jab and stays on the outside, while Parisian gasses quickly. However, Cody doesn't like the -200 price and calls it a pass, suggesting live betting might be better.
Daniel Levi picks Don'Tale Mayes to win, though he is not sure how. He acknowledges Mayes's physical gifts (6'6", 81-inch reach) and decent striking, but notes he underperforms and slows down. Levi is unimpressed with Josh Parisian, who absorbs too many strikes and has poor defense. He believes Mayes's youth and athleticism should prevail, and expects Mayes to land the harder shots and possibly get a finish. Levi warns that Parisian could win a decision if Mayes fades, but still picks Mayes.
Jacob picks Josh Parisian but calls it a coin flip, expecting a sloppy fight. He notes that both fighters like to throw spinning attacks and that Parisian is slightly less sloppy with his hands higher. Jacob mentions that Mayes' hands are often low and he does wild spinning stuff. He doesn't feel great about the pick but leans Parisian.
The host leans towards Mayes by decision, noting that Mayes is more mobile and can stick and move, while Parisian is slow and plods forward. He thinks the fight goes to decision and likes the 'fight goes to decision' prop at +105. He is not confident enough to lay -200 on Mayes moneyline.
Paul leans Parisian as a dog, citing his higher volume and pressure. He notes that both fighters gas, but Parisian throws more. Paul thinks it's a 'dogger pass' and would take the plus money if forced to bet.
The MMA Guru picks Don'Tale Mayes over Josh Parisian, though he admits both fighters are not very good. He cites Mayes' youth, power, reach advantage, and better athleticism. He notes Parisian has been disappointing recently and lost to Rook Martinez (though he got the win). He thinks Mayes is more technical and powerful on the feet.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 79 of 160 | 49% | 100 of 186 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 4:23 |
| Roque Martinez | 0 | 64 of 114 | 56% | 245 of 309 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 4:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Parisian | 0 | 29 of 59 | 49% | 35 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Roque Martinez | 0 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 84 of 105 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:40 | |
| 2 | Josh Parisian | 0 | 28 of 44 | 63% | 37 of 54 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:22 |
| Roque Martinez | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 82 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:08 | |
| 3 | Josh Parisian | 0 | 22 of 57 | 38% | 28 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:53 |
| Roque Martinez | 0 | 29 of 50 | 58% | 79 of 105 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Parisian | 79 of 160 | 49% | 43 of 118 | 29 of 34 | 7 of 8 | 49 of 120 | 30 of 40 | 0 of 0 |
| Roque Martinez | 64 of 114 | 56% | 48 of 98 | 15 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 39 of 84 | 25 of 30 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Parisian | 29 of 59 | 49% | 12 of 42 | 13 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 49 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Roque Martinez | 26 of 46 | 56% | 21 of 41 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 30 | 13 of 16 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Josh Parisian | 28 of 44 | 63% | 17 of 29 | 9 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 18 | 18 of 26 | 0 of 0 |
| Roque Martinez | 9 of 18 | 50% | 5 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Josh Parisian | 22 of 57 | 38% | 14 of 47 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 53 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Roque Martinez | 29 of 50 | 58% | 22 of 43 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 41 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Josh Parisian, citing his height and reach advantage, high volume, and improved conditioning. He thinks Parisian will pick Martinez apart at range and that Martinez's durability will prevent a finish, leading to a decision. He bet on the fight going to a decision at +145 and likes the over on strikes for both.
Big Brady likes Parisian's volume and significant reach/height advantages, but is concerned about his cardio after gassing against Parker Porter. He thinks Parisian will land more shots and win a decision because Martinez is very durable and hard to finish.
Cody picks Parisian by decision, noting Parisian's reach and volume advantage. He believes Martinez is durable but will be outpointed. Cody suggests the over 2.5 rounds or fight goes the distance as better plays, as both fighters lack finishing ability.
Daniel Levi picks Josh Parisian, noting that he is the bigger, more physical fighter with more skills. He thinks Parisian will take Martinez down and work on top. He acknowledges that Parisian lost to Parker Porter, but considers Porter a tough opponent. He believes Martinez is tough but lacks the skills to win at this level, and that Parisian will get his first UFC win.
Jacob also picks Josh Parisian, comparing his wild kicking style to a karate kid. He acknowledges the height advantage and thinks Parisian's volume will win the fight. He is slightly worried about Martinez's grappling but overall expects a sloppy fight that Parisian wins.
The host picks Roque Martinez as an underdog, believing his durability, cardio, and pressure will overcome Josh Parisian, who tends to gas. He notes Martinez's leg kicks and boxing, and expects Parisian to fade after the first round. He predicts Martinez by decision, similar to the Parker Porter fight, and likes the over 1.5 rounds due to both fighters' durability. He is not putting hard-earned money on Martinez but sees value in the decision prop.
Paul leans toward Martinez, citing his durability and toughness. He expects a sloppy heavyweight fight and is not confident. Paul bets over 1.5 rounds at -155, expecting the fight to last.
The MMA Guru picks Josh Parisian to win by first-round TKO via spinning back fist and ground and pound. He believes Parisian will soften up Martinez's body with spinning back kicks, then land a spinning back fist to knock him down and finish with ground and pound against the cage. He expresses high confidence that Parisian will go for the spinning back fist.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Porter | 0 | 114 of 226 | 50% | 123 of 237 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 126 of 228 | 55% | 164 of 275 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 4:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parker Porter | 0 | 56 of 115 | 48% | 61 of 122 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 46 of 92 | 50% | 57 of 104 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 | |
| 2 | Parker Porter | 0 | 24 of 43 | 55% | 27 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 30 of 46 | 65% | 54 of 78 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:12 | |
| 3 | Parker Porter | 0 | 34 of 68 | 50% | 35 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Josh Parisian | 0 | 50 of 90 | 55% | 53 of 93 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Porter | 114 of 226 | 50% | 71 of 173 | 35 of 44 | 8 of 9 | 89 of 190 | 25 of 36 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Parisian | 126 of 228 | 55% | 90 of 190 | 16 of 18 | 20 of 20 | 105 of 198 | 20 of 27 | 1 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parker Porter | 56 of 115 | 48% | 38 of 92 | 18 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 38 of 89 | 18 of 26 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Parisian | 46 of 92 | 50% | 33 of 77 | 10 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 33 of 77 | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Parker Porter | 24 of 43 | 55% | 11 of 30 | 9 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 37 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Parisian | 30 of 46 | 65% | 18 of 34 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 8 | 25 of 35 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 3 | |
| 3 | Parker Porter | 34 of 68 | 50% | 22 of 51 | 8 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 32 of 64 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Parisian | 50 of 90 | 55% | 39 of 79 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 9 | 47 of 86 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Expert Picks (8)
Angelo picks Josh Parisian because he believes Parisian's chin will hold up against Mayes' power, and that Parisian has a slightly better gas tank and higher output. He notes that Parisian set the UFC significant strike record at heavyweight in his fight with Parker Porter, showing constant forward pressure. However, Angelo's biggest fear is a Mayes KO early, as Mayes has heavy hands. He thinks the odds are too wide in favor of Mayes and that this should be closer to a pick'em.
Big Brady picks the underdog Josh Parisian, liking his volume and toughness despite poor striking defense. He notes Parisian's gas tank is not great but he fights through it. He expects a sloppy fight and predicts Parisian wins a volume-based decision. He admits no one can be confident in this low-level fight.
Cody slightly favors Mayes due to superior cardio and reach. He notes Mayes uses a good jab and stays on the outside, while Parisian gasses quickly. However, Cody doesn't like the -200 price and calls it a pass, suggesting live betting might be better.
Daniel Levi picks Don'Tale Mayes to win, though he is not sure how. He acknowledges Mayes's physical gifts (6'6", 81-inch reach) and decent striking, but notes he underperforms and slows down. Levi is unimpressed with Josh Parisian, who absorbs too many strikes and has poor defense. He believes Mayes's youth and athleticism should prevail, and expects Mayes to land the harder shots and possibly get a finish. Levi warns that Parisian could win a decision if Mayes fades, but still picks Mayes.
Jacob picks Josh Parisian but calls it a coin flip, expecting a sloppy fight. He notes that both fighters like to throw spinning attacks and that Parisian is slightly less sloppy with his hands higher. Jacob mentions that Mayes' hands are often low and he does wild spinning stuff. He doesn't feel great about the pick but leans Parisian.
The host leans towards Mayes by decision, noting that Mayes is more mobile and can stick and move, while Parisian is slow and plods forward. He thinks the fight goes to decision and likes the 'fight goes to decision' prop at +105. He is not confident enough to lay -200 on Mayes moneyline.
Paul leans Parisian as a dog, citing his higher volume and pressure. He notes that both fighters gas, but Parisian throws more. Paul thinks it's a 'dogger pass' and would take the plus money if forced to bet.
The MMA Guru picks Don'Tale Mayes over Josh Parisian, though he admits both fighters are not very good. He cites Mayes' youth, power, reach advantage, and better athleticism. He notes Parisian has been disappointing recently and lost to Rook Martinez (though he got the win). He thinks Mayes is more technical and powerful on the feet.
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