Career Averages - Mateusz Gamrot
Career Averages - Carlos Diego Ferreira
Mateusz Gamrot
Carlos Diego Ferreira
Mateusz Gamrot - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 38 of 56 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 6:50 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 4 of 21 | 19% | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 24 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:55 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 1 of 12 | 8% | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 14 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 2:55 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 18 of 34 | 52% | 15 of 29 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 16 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 4 of 21 | 19% | 2 of 15 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 14 of 21 | 66% | 11 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 11 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 1 of 12 | 8% | 0 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as an underdog, highlighting his superior striking, power, and scrambling ability. He notes Gamrot's chinny nature and lack of finishing threat, while Ribovics is dangerous everywhere. He suggests a plus 3.5 prop bet if afraid of the moneyline, expecting Ribovics to not get finished or shut out.
Big Brady sees this as a striker vs wrestler matchup. He expects Gamrot to get takedowns but Ribovics to get back up and outland him on the feet with volume and power. He compares it to the Gamrot-Turner fight where Turner did more damage. He thinks it goes to a split decision and takes the dog Ribovics, trusting the judges to score damage over control.
Cody picks Ribovics as an underdog, citing his high volume, power, and improved takedown defense. He thinks Ribovics can outwork Gamrot on the feet and win a decision.
Connor picks Gamrot because of his superior takedown ability, which gives him a 'get out of jail free card' whenever Ribovics makes him uncomfortable on the feet. He notes that Ribovics struggles against wrestlers, as seen in the Loic Rajabov fight where he was taken down 11 times. He acknowledges Gamrot's unreliability but trusts his wrestling to control the fight.
Daniel Vreeland picks Esteban Ribovics as a risky underdog, believing that Gamrot is on the decline and that Ribovics' cardio and pressure can exploit Gamrot's slowing reflexes and compromised chin. He notes that Ribovics gets back up from takedowns and lands damage, but acknowledges Gamrot is the better fighter on paper.
Daniel thinks Gamrot is on the decline and his style has been figured out. He believes Ribovics has improved his takedown defense and will outwork Gamrot on the feet.
The host finds this fight very difficult to bet pre-fight due to Ribovics' unknown takedown defense improvement since his loss to Radzhabov. He notes Gamrot's cardio issues and Ribovics' cardio advantage, making it risky to bet either side. He suggests the most likely outcome is Gamrot winning the first two rounds and coasting to a 29-28 decision, but also sees a path for Ribovics if his takedown defense has improved.
James picks the underdog Ribovics, citing Gamrot's recent losses and potential decline, and Ribovics' belief in himself. He sees it as a close fight where Ribovics could win a decision.
Gamrot's grappling is a level above what Ribovics has faced. Ribovics has improved takedown defense but Gamrot's chain wrestling is relentless. However, Ribovics has a striking edge and could steal rounds if he defends takedowns. Gamrot's experience and pressure should wear Ribovics down over three rounds. It's a sketchy matchup but Gamrot's grappling gives him the edge.
Paul picks Gamrot, believing his wrestling and control will be enough to win rounds. He is not very confident and acknowledges Ribovics' takedown defense improvement.
The MMA Guru picks Esteban Ribovics over Mateusz Gamrot. He believes Ribovics is explosive, high-volume, and has good takedown defense. He notes Gamrot gets hurt on the feet and struggled with Dan Hooker's scrambles. He predicts Ribovics will drop Gamrot and win a decision, similar to the Hooker fight.
Zane picks Gamrot, agreeing that his takedown ability is the key. He notes that Ribovics is not the kind of guy UFC matches against wrestlers, and his last fight against a wrestler (Rajabov) saw him taken down 11 times. He acknowledges that Gamrot is unreliable but believes his wrestling will be decisive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 11 of 33 | 33% | 18 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 3:35 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 18 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:47 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 | |
| 2 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 8 of 25 | 32% | 9 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 14 of 35 | 40% | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 11 of 33 | 33% | 4 of 21 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 10 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 18 of 42 | 42% | 16 of 40 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 4 of 7 | 57% | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Charles Oliveira | 8 of 25 | 32% | 4 of 17 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 14 of 35 | 40% | 13 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Mateusz Gamrot, believing his wrestling and experience at American Top Team will prevent him from getting submitted. He expects Gamrot to win by takedowns and control, similar to Arman Tsarukyan's win over Oliveira. He notes Oliveira's only hope is a knockout on the feet or a submission, but thinks Gamrot is too well-trained. He bet on Gamrot at -120 odds.
Big Brady picks Charles Oliveira to finish Mateusz Gamrot by third-round knockout, becoming the first to finish Gamrot. He notes both fighters have durability concerns: Gamrot gets hurt in every fight but never finished, while Oliveira is coming off a brutal KO loss to Ilia Topuria and may be returning too soon. However, Brady thinks Oliveira is pissed off and will pressure hard, land big shots, and eventually drop Gamrot. He believes Gamrot's takedowns won't lead to control, as Oliveira can get back up, and on the feet Oliveira has the death touch. He also notes Gamrot took the fight on short notice and is fighting in Brazil.
Cody picks Charles Oliveira but is scared due to concerns about Oliveira being a part-time fighter and possibly past his peak. He notes Gamrot's wrestling could be a threat but trusts Oliveira's jiu-jitsu and home crowd advantage. He suggests live betting Oliveira if he loses early rounds.
James picks Oliveira despite acknowledging Gamrot's wrestling advantage and Oliveira's recent KO loss. He believes Oliveira's superior jiu-jitsu and striking will be key, especially his guillotine and front headlock series to defend takedowns. However, he notes volatility due to short notice and Oliveira's age, and does not plan to bet on this fight.
Lucrative James leans Charles Oliveira, citing his superior striking and submission danger. He believes Gamrot must rely on takedowns, but Oliveira's scrambling and jiu-jitsu are elite. He notes Oliveira's ability to get up from takedowns and his power. However, he acknowledges Gamrot's prime and intangibles, making it a close fight. He picks Oliveira but is not confident.
Manpreet picks Gamrot by decision, citing Gamrot's high-level grappling and ability to nullify Oliveira's submission threats. He notes Oliveira's tendency to be too comfortable off his back, which could be exploited by Gamrot's wrestling and scrambles. However, he acknowledges the short notice for Gamrot and calls the fight a toss-up, with low confidence. He mentions that Oliveira's striking advantage and BJJ threat could cause Gamrot problems, but believes Gamrot's grappling defense will keep him safe.
Paul picks Charles Oliveira, citing his excellent striking and grappling, and noting that Gamrot has been knocked down multiple times in the UFC. He believes Oliveira's dual threat of knockout and submission will be too much, especially in a five-round fight where Gamrot's cardio may fade. Paul is confident but acknowledges the risk of Oliveira's age and recent knockout loss.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira over Mateusz Gamrot, citing Oliveira's submission skills and Gamrot's tendency to get hurt and shoot for takedowns, leaving his neck exposed. He notes Gamrot has been rocked in many fights and Oliveira will capitalize with a guillotine. He predicts a submission win in round 1 or 2.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 65 of 110 | 59% | 142 of 224 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 0 | 0 | 8:45 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 0 | 24 of 74 | 32% | 85 of 145 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 27 of 43 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 3:06 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 0 | 2 of 14 | 14% | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 17 of 26 | 65% | 46 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 0 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 48 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 38 of 65 | 58% | 69 of 108 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 0 | 20 of 49 | 40% | 31 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 65 of 110 | 59% | 53 of 98 | 7 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 38 of 73 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 33 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 24 of 74 | 32% | 10 of 49 | 13 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 23 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 10 of 19 | 52% | 3 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 2 of 14 | 14% | 2 of 11 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 17 of 26 | 65% | 15 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 13 of 18 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 2 of 11 | 18% | 1 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mateusz Gamrot | 38 of 65 | 58% | 35 of 62 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 11 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 20 of 49 | 40% | 7 of 31 | 12 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gamrot (-166), Klein (+140)
Round 1
From a rankings and championship perspective, this lightweight co-main might place the winner higher on the “who does the UFC call for the next shot at a belt” list than any other match on the card. Gamrot (24-3, 1 NC; 7-3 UFC) is aiming to bounce back from a close loss to Dan Hooker, while Klein (23-4-1, 7-2-1 UFC) has not lost since moving to 155 pounds and is facing undoubtedly the toughest test of his career. In this classic Poland vs. Slovakia matchup, referee Herb Dean draws the charge. Before the intensity swells to a fever pitch, the fighters tap gloves together. Gamrot chases after the kickboxer almost immediately, putting pressure on him and catching him with a lunging right hand and a low kick. Gamrot wings a right hand over the top, and Klein rolls with it. Gamrot connects with another punch-kick combo, sweeping Klein’s leg but not tripping him up. Gamrot kicks up high and continues pressing ahead, with a punch drawing a smile out of Klein. “Gamer” has a head kick slap off the chest, and his keeping Klein on the back foot has held Klein to throwing much. When Klein does commit to a strike, he wobbles Gamrot to his knees with a single jab. Gamrot gets his bearing and trips on his way in, shooting for a single and pushing Klein to the wall. Gamrot successfully sits Klein down with his level change, and Klein works to a knee with Gamrot at his back. Klein is warned for grabbing the fence to help him upright, and Gamrot continues to exude heavy pressure from behind. Gamrot opens up with a number of right hands when he finds an avenue to attack, and he trips Klein’s legs out when Klein gets back up. Gamrot wrenches him down and knees him in the ribs a few times. One knee lands on the spine, and it does not receive a warning. Gamrot controls and puts his weight on the Slovakian, where he wraps a number of right hands around the guard. Gamrot hammers the body with additional knees, pounding on the ribs until he elects to drag Klein away from the fencing. Gamrot loops a hook in, where he hangs on until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot
Round 2
After the glove touch, Gamrot gets right back on the accelerator backing Klein up. Klein sits down with a kick to the side, and Gamrot grins as he uses the moment to take Klein down. In Klein’s guard, Gamrot hangs out dropping down strikes when available. Klein retaliates with heel kicks that land on Gamrot’s spine, making Dean warn him for this strike. Gamrot stacks his man up and rails him with standing-to-ground right hands, and he leaps into half guard. Gamrot presses his weight down on an arm-triangle hold, using it to keep position rather than pursue submission. Klein desperately stays busy with flailing elbows while horizontal, and Gamrot practically ignores them so he can step back over to half guard. Gamrot holds onto Klein’s ankle when Klein looks to scramble, and the Polish fighter floats over to get back on top. Gamrot beats on his opponent while on top, with his offense active enough to not draw a warning from Dean. Klein is complacent to keep striking back, but Gamrot’s blows are substantially heavier. Gamrot even uses a can opener on the back of Klein’s neck to break open his guard, and this forces Gamrot to his feet. Klein uses bicycle kicks to keep Gamrot off of him, only to backwards somersault and find Gamrot on his back. Klein works his way to the fencing and one knee before standing up, and both men throw head kicks before breaking. Gamrot drives a one-two down the pipe, and Klein comes after him only to eat another right hand on the jaw. Klein pitches out a few kicks, including a spin kick that misses the mark, and Gamrot evades them and pecks out with a right hand before the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot
Round 3
Almost certainly down on the scorecards, Klein rushes out of his corner aggressively and starts throwing kicks. Gamrot responds with a few and catches him with a right hand, and he shoots in for a double. Klein stuffs it and gets up, where he uses his distance strikes to keep Gamrot at bay. Klein scores a body kick and a left hand over the top, and Gamrot counters but is more inclined on grappling. Klein intercepts a takedown with a knee to the chest, and it stops Gamrot well enough. Klein gets back to walking the ranked man down, where they fire off kicks at the other. Gamrot may be fading as he looks to the clock, but it might be a little sandbagging as he drills Klein with a right hand and a few sharp jabs. Klein responds with a head kick that just brushes off the guard, and Gamrot drives him back with two hard right hands. Klein’s left hand misses, but his body kick does not. Gamrot looks for an uppercut, and Klein lances him with a left hand that makes Gamrot think twice about his approach. Nevertheless, it is Gamrot who strikes first, and he keeps Klein honest with punch combinations. Gamrot lands a jab and a right hand, and Klein doubles up on kicks. Gamrot shoots for a single, and on his second effort, he puts “Mr. Highlight” on his back. Gamrot, comfortably in the guard, drums on Klein with punches and hammerfists. Gamrot advances his position, and Klein retaliates by rolling over. Gamrot bowls him back over again, this time getting to side control where he can drop down strikes and even wrap up Klein’s right arm in a potential crucifix. Gamrot continues clobbering his opponent from position, beating the Slovakian down with punches and elbows until the final second. When the bell rings, Gamrot and his foe embrace, happy that their 15-minute endeavor has come to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot (30-27 Gamrot)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot (30-27 Gamrot)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot (30-27 Gamrot)
The Official Result
Mateusz Gamrot def. Ludovit Klein via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Ľudovít Klein, citing his smooth striking, accuracy, and 90% takedown defense. He notes that Gamrot is chinny and gets dropped often, and that Klein will do damage on the feet while Gamrot holds on. He prefers a prop bet of 'inside the distance/decision no action' because Klein has finishing upside and Gamrot could win a takedown-heavy decision.
Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot, noting this is a massive step down in competition for Gamrot compared to his recent fights. He expects Gamrot to wrestle for 15 minutes, using the small cage to his advantage. He worries about judges in a damage-over-control era but still believes Gamrot wins a decision.
Connor agrees with Zane that Gamrot is the clear pick. He emphasizes that Klein's tendency to be a back-foot, pot-shot striker will not work against Gamrot's pressure and wrestling. Connor also notes that Klein's wrestling, when he uses it, will only lead him into Gamrot's world, where Gamrot is superior. He compares the matchup to Klein's fight with Michael Trizano, where Klein was out-jabbed, and expects a similar outcome with Gamrot's wrestling being the difference.
Matt picks Ľudovít Klein as an underdog. He believes Klein's 91% takedown defense and power striking will neutralize Gamrot's wrestling. Klein lands damaging shots and should win the first two rounds, potentially pulling off the upset. Matt likes Klein by decision at +330.
The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, though he acknowledges Klein's danger. He believes Gamrot's size and grappling will be key, especially after getting hurt. He notes Klein's cardio issues and that Gamrot is world-class. He predicts Gamrot wins the later rounds, possibly by finish or decision.
Zane picks Gamrot because he believes Klein's style is a poor matchup for him. Klein tends to fight on the back foot, picking shots one at a time, and relies on either a wrestling advantage or a tempo advantage to win. Against Gamrot, who is a high-pressure wrestler with excellent grappling, Klein's wrestling will likely lead him into trouble. Zane also notes that Klein's recent opponents have been low-output, and Gamrot's pace and ability to wrestle will overwhelm him, similar to how Michael Trizano out-jabbed Klein.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Hooker | 0 | 64 of 129 | 49% | 88 of 154 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:59 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 65 of 143 | 45% | 82 of 162 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Hooker | 0 | 26 of 54 | 48% | 31 of 59 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 20 of 43 | 46% | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 | |
| 2 | Dan Hooker | 0 | 11 of 17 | 64% | 27 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 27 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:44 | |
| 3 | Dan Hooker | 0 | 27 of 58 | 46% | 30 of 61 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 28 of 66 | 42% | 31 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Hooker | 64 of 129 | 49% | 56 of 119 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 43 of 97 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 30 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 65 of 143 | 45% | 41 of 111 | 24 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 44 of 119 | 4 of 6 | 17 of 18 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Hooker | 26 of 54 | 48% | 22 of 50 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 24 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 20 of 43 | 46% | 9 of 28 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | |
| 2 | Dan Hooker | 11 of 17 | 64% | 8 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 17 of 34 | 50% | 12 of 26 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 10 | |
| 3 | Dan Hooker | 27 of 58 | 46% | 26 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 28 of 66 | 42% | 20 of 57 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 58 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 |
Angelo picks Mateusz Gamrot but is hesitant, acknowledging that Dan Hooker is a live underdog who can drop Gamrot, as many have. He believes Gamrot's relentless wrestling and pace will be too much, but Hooker's heart and striking make it close. He plans to bet on Hooker via the plus 3.5 round spread, expecting Hooker to win at least one round.
Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot to win by decision. He notes Gamrot's style is to spam takedowns (almost 20 per 15 minutes) and he expects Gamrot to lay on Hooker, limiting Hooker's offense. He points out that Hooker has not faced many wrestlers aside from Islam Makhachev, who submitted him in the first round. He acknowledges some arguments for Hooker based on damage scoring but believes Gamrot's takedown volume will be overwhelming. He says it's not a fight he's entirely looking forward to.
Cody believes Hooker's pressure, durability, and fan-friendly style will sway judges, especially if Gamrot's wrestling is neutralized. He notes Gamrot has been knocked down in half his UFC fights and gasses late, while Hooker has proven cardio and a chin. Cody also mentions the possibility that Gamrot may be told not to wrestle, which would play into Hooker's hands.
Daniel Vreeland picks Mateusz Gamrot to win a split decision, but is hesitant due to Gamrot's sloppy striking and tendency to get dropped. He notes that Hooker has finishing upside and that Gamrot's path to victory is through grinding with takedowns and top control. Vreeland says the fight is a dog-or-pass situation and that he would not lay the juice on Gamrot.
Vreeland picks Gamrot, citing his relentless pressure and wrestling volume. He argues Hooker can stuff a few takedowns but cannot stop 15-20 attempts. He compares Gamrot's wrestling to Islam Makhachev's explosiveness, far superior to Jalin Turner's. He expects a grimy, grinding win for Gamrot.
Fox agrees with Gamrot, acknowledging Hooker's good performance against Turner but noting Gamrot's pressure and wrestling are a different level. He emphasizes Gamrot's relentless takedown threat and explosive entries, which he believes Hooker cannot handle over three rounds.
The host picks Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling and grappling. He notes Hooker's toughness and ability to land damage from defensive positions, which could sway judges. He expects Gamrot to win by decision, but warns the line is too wide given the narrow margin. He prefers the Gamrot by decision prop if at plus money.
Paul expects Gamrot to use his wrestling to control Hooker, taking him down repeatedly and grinding out a decision. He acknowledges Hooker's toughness but believes Gamrot's chain wrestling and takedown volume will be too much. Paul also notes that Hooker hasn't faced a dedicated wrestler recently and that Gamrot's 11-takedown performance against dos Anjos shows his commitment to wrestling.
The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot over Dan Hooker. He notes Hooker's wins have asterisks due to injuries and long layoffs, and he questions Hooker's durability in a grappling match. He praises Gamrot's grappling, especially his low single-leg shots from distance that avoid knees, and his ability to transition without getting guillotined. He believes Gamrot will ragdoll Hooker, citing Hooker's poor takedown defense against Islam Makhachev. He also notes the fight is three rounds, which slightly helps Hooker, but still picks Gamrot.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 57 of 102 | 55% | 111 of 163 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 7:01 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 36 of 78 | 46% | 39 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 40 of 61 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 14 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 28 of 36 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 2:40 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 12 of 25 | 48% | 12 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 28 of 50 | 56% | 43 of 66 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:46 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 13 of 34 | 38% | 13 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 57 of 102 | 55% | 48 of 90 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 46 of 88 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 6 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 36 of 78 | 46% | 24 of 61 | 5 of 9 | 7 of 8 | 26 of 67 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 19 of 34 | 55% | 17 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 25 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 11 of 19 | 57% | 9 of 14 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 10 of 18 | 55% | 6 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 12 of 25 | 48% | 9 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Mateusz Gamrot | 28 of 50 | 56% | 25 of 45 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 13 of 34 | 38% | 6 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo is very confident in Mateusz Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling and pace. He believes RDA has no wrestling defense and will spend much of the fight on his back. He thinks Gamrot will shoot takedowns, grind, and win. He also mentions over 2.5 rounds as a good bet.
Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot to win by decision. He notes that RDA is 39 and has struggled with wrestling, and that Gamrot has the cardio to shoot many takedowns. He expects the striking to be competitive, but Gamrot's takedowns will seal each round.
Cody thinks RDA is being priced as if he's completely washed, but he believes RDA is better at 155 and that the Luque loss was due to size. He thinks RDA's striking and jiu-jitsu make him competitive, and at plus money, he's worth a look.
Daniel is confident Gamrot will win, citing his wrestling and low single takedowns. He notes RDA was outwrestled by Vicente Luque, who is not known for offensive wrestling, and expects Gamrot to dominate on the ground. However, he dislikes the minus 450 price and says he would only bet if the price improves.
Gamrot is a high-level wrestler who should be too strong, fast, and young for the aging dos Anjos. Dos Anjos has shown declining takedown defense, as seen in his loss to Vicente Luque where he was controlled for 11 minutes. Gamrot will likely get the fight to the ground and grind on dos Anjos, wearing him down. I expect Gamrot to win a decision, as finishing a durable veteran like dos Anjos is tough. The prop 'Gamrot by decision' is the best way to attack this fight without taking too much chalk.
Paul disagrees, pointing out that RDA has historically struggled against wrestlers and has been taken down repeatedly. He thinks Gamrot's chain wrestling, cardio, and durability will overwhelm RDA, who will likely lose the first two rounds and be unable to come back.
The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing his superior technical wrestling, strength, and versatility compared to RDA. He notes the three-round format benefits Gamrot's pace, and that RDA is 39 and has talked about retirement. He also highlights that Gamrot trains with Dustin Poirier, which should help his preparation. He predicts Gamrot will ragdoll RDA and win a decision or late finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 18 of 32 | 56% | 19 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 16 of 40 | 40% | 17 of 42 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 16 of 27 | 59% | 16 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 12 of 34 | 35% | 12 of 35 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 5 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 18 of 32 | 56% | 4 of 14 | 12 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 16 of 40 | 40% | 11 of 31 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 13 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 16 of 27 | 59% | 4 of 11 | 10 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 12 of 34 | 35% | 7 of 25 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Fiziev (-155), Gamrot (+130)
Round 1
The stakes are high for these two lightweights, as a victory in this main event could vault one man into the top echelon of the division. Fiziev (12-2, 6-2 UFC) tried to reach that level against Justin Gaethje, while Gamrot (22-2, 1 NC; 5-2 UFC) was turned away recently by Beneil Dariush. Two men – plus referee Herb Dean – enter, and one man will leave, figuratively speaking. The two contenders are intense but fully respectful, despite competing for rival camps of Kill Cliff FC and American Top Team, respectively. Fists are bumped, and they are about to be traded. Both men look for the middle of the cage to start off, and they do not throw a single strike the first 30 seconds. One finally comes, with a jab from Gamrot. Fiziev jabs the body in response, and he scrapes the midsection with a body kick. Gamrot gets off a leg kick, and he hops back when Fiziev feints towards him. Gamrot comes up missing the mark with a head kick, and Fiziev also throws an inaccurate strike up high. Gamrot steps through a jab to lands a right hand on the chin, and Fiziev does not even budge. When Gamrot attempts this blitz a second time, Fiziev strings together five punches in rapid succession to force the Polish fighter to retreat. They fire off low kicks at the same time, and Gamrot’s foot comes up and pops the cup. They both bump fists after the foul and do not take a moment. Fiziev reaches his man with a right hand, and Gamrot shoots down low as he possibly can to lift Fiziev’s leg up in the air. Fiziev miraculously stays on his feet from the attempt, and he skirts away and resets. Fiziev works the body with a kick, and he cannot avoid a one-two that comes back his way. Gamrot has a high kick glance off the shoulder, and Fiziev returns fire with a strike to the body. Fiziev swipes a right to the body, and he partially deflects a leg kick. Gamrot parries a body kick, and he springs forward with a double jab. Fiziev misses with a front kick and is able to escape a trio of punches from his opponent. Gamrot does reach his man with a jab, only for Fiziev to reply with a front kick up the middle. Fiziev hammers the lead leg with a kick that sets Gamrot down, and Gamrot spins and works his way back up without issue. Gamrot races after Fiziev, looking for another takedown, and a fast and furious scramble ensues as Fiziev hits his seat and pops up. The horn sounds, and both men high five after the final exciting exchange.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Round 2
The lightweights bump fists to open the second round, and Gamrot is the initial aggressor. This leads him to walking into a body kick, but he presses forward to pursue a takedown. Fiziev wildly moves out of the way from the first and second attempts, but Gamrot successfully grounds him on the third effort that is chained together. Fiziev works his way towards the wall, and Gamrot looks to hold his weight on him and drag Fiziev down. Gamrot hunts for a trip, a single, a double, or anything he can muster, and Fiziev is a stone wall for this grappling exchange. Fiziev manages to push away, and he winds up and fires a body kick that pounds into Gamrot’s torso and lands with a loud thump. As Fiziev pulls it back, his left knee torques the wrong way, and Fiziev collapses and yelps in pain. Not knowing exactly what happened, Gamrot sprints towards his fallen foe and swings a few punches, and Dean is quick to rush to Fiziev’s aid and call in the medical staff. Before realizing that his opponent suffered an injury, Gamrot sprints over to his corner, where he lets out several shouts of victory. Gamrot’s excitement cools quickly when he discovers that Fiziev is hurt, and he appears saddened about this. Despite the result, Gamrot does emerge the victor and is looking towards the future. In his post-fight interview, while he states his ultimate goal is to fight champ Islam Makhachev, he does not believe he is ready for that. Instead, he calls for a fight against who he perceives to be the most dangerous grappler in the division, Charles Oliveira. Unfortunately for Gamrot, Oliveira’s dance card is full at the moment, as Oliveira will be rematching Makhachev next month for his old belt. If Gamrot fights either the winner or loser of that championship bout at UFC 294, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Mateusz Gamrot def. Rafael Fiziev R2 2:03 via TKO (Knee Injury)
Angelo picks Fiziev for the first time against Gamrot. He notes Fiziev is the better striker and has shown a willingness to go to war. He thinks over five rounds, Fiziev will eventually catch Gamrot. However, he acknowledges Gamrot's wrestling and durability, and says Gamrot at the current moneyline is great value.
Big Brady picks Rafael Fiziev to win by decision, noting he would max-bet Fiziev if it were a three-round fight. He praises Fiziev's striking power and improvement, but worries about his cardio in the championship rounds. He expects Fiziev to stuff takedowns early and bank the first three rounds, possibly knocking Gamrot down. He acknowledges Gamrot's relentless pace and never-slow-down cardio could make it close late.
Cody leans towards Gamrot as a live underdog, emphasizing that Fiziev's cardio fades in later rounds and Gamrot's wrestling can exploit that. He notes Gamrot has never been finished and has a strong chin, but acknowledges Fiziev's striking advantage early. He prefers to bet Gamrot live at a better price rather than pre-fight.
Daniel sees this as a very close fight that could go either way, so he leans toward the underdog. He highlights Gamrot's relentless takedown attempts (21 vs. Tsarukyan, 19 vs. Dern) and his unique low-single wrestling style that Fiziev hasn't faced. He worries Fiziev may fade in the later rounds under constant grappling pressure, leading to Gamrot taking over in rounds 3-5. He acknowledges Fiziev's athleticism and takedown defense but thinks the volume of attempts will eventually pay off.
Lucrative James picks Fiziev, citing his takedown defense and Muay Thai balance to stuff Gamrot's single-leg attempts. He believes Fiziev will land critical damage on the feet and potentially finish Gamrot. Even if it goes late, he thinks Gamrot will be too damaged to capitalize on his cardio edge. He placed 3 units on Fiziev at -136.
The host picks Gamrot as an underdog, reasoning that Fiziev fades in later rounds while Gamrot has proven cardio and grappling over five rounds. He notes Fiziev's 90% takedown defense but believes Gamrot's relentless pressure and chain wrestling will wear him down, leading to a decision win in rounds 3-5. The host also mentions the over 4.5 rounds as a good prop.
Paul leans slightly towards Fiziev, citing his striking advantage and improved takedown defense early. He worries about Gamrot's low volume and that judges may not reward takedowns without damage. However, he is not confident enough to bet pre-fight and will wait for weigh-ins.
The MMA Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, criticizing Mateusz Gamrot's striking as limited to a one-two and takedown attempts. He believes Fiziev's body kicks and counter shots will be effective, and predicts a first or second round TKO. He notes Fiziev's strength and low center of gravity, and argues that the 'secret better half' of lightweight (including Fiziev) tends to beat grapplers like Gamrot. He acknowledges Gamrot's wrestling but thinks Fiziev's danger will prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 29 of 42 | 69% | 89 of 109 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 6:52 |
| Jalin Turner | 1 | 40 of 97 | 41% | 62 of 119 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 14 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:26 |
| Jalin Turner | 1 | 12 of 31 | 38% | 23 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 13 of 17 | 76% | 60 of 66 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:35 |
| Jalin Turner | 0 | 18 of 48 | 37% | 19 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 3 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 15 of 21 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 2:51 |
| Jalin Turner | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 20 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 29 of 42 | 69% | 18 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 9 | 21 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 8 |
| Jalin Turner | 40 of 97 | 41% | 23 of 72 | 14 of 22 | 3 of 3 | 33 of 90 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 9 of 14 | 64% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Jalin Turner | 12 of 31 | 38% | 8 of 24 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 13 of 17 | 76% | 7 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Jalin Turner | 18 of 48 | 37% | 11 of 37 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Mateusz Gamrot | 7 of 11 | 63% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Jalin Turner | 10 of 18 | 55% | 4 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo is confident in Mateusz Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling, cardio, and ability to get takedowns. He notes that Jalin Turner has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Gamrot's speed and ankle picks will be too much. Angelo has a moneyline bet on Gamrot at -190.
Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing his wrestling machine style with high takedown volume. He notes Turner's takedown defense is not elite and Gamrot has the cardio to attempt many takedowns. He predicts a decision win for Gamrot, though he acknowledges Turner's power and submission threat.
Cody is tempted by Turner as an underdog. He sees a path for Turner if he can keep the fight standing and use his reach. He notes Gamrot's wrestling is elite but that he has been in close fights and can fatigue. He says if he takes Turner, he'll be the PRP pick.
Connor leans Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling, cardio, and scrambling ability. He notes Turner's dangerous striking and guillotine threats, but believes Gamrot's takedowns and top control will neutralize Turner's offense. He mentions Turner's tendency to play guard rather than explode up, which may allow Gamrot to hold him down. However, he acknowledges Turner's one-shot knockout power makes this risky.
Jacob picks Mateusz Gamrot, praising his relentless pressure and unique ankle pick takedowns. He believes Turner will not be able to defend the takedowns and that Gamrot will drown him. Jacob has hedges with Turner by knockout but is confident in Gamrot.
Gamrot is a high-level scrambler and wrestler who wants to drag fights to the ground. Turner is dangerous with submissions but has questionable takedown defense and struggles off his back. Gamrot will secure takedowns and grind out a decision victory.
Paul picks Gamrot but is cautious. He thinks Gamrot's wrestling will be enough to secure takedowns and win rounds, but he has questions about Turner's cardio and reach. He expects a close fight and is not confident in the pick.
The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing Turner's loss to Matt Frevola via grappling. He believes Gamrot can implement a wrestling-heavy game plan and win a 30-27 decision, noting Turner's preparation for a striker.
Zane also leans Gamrot, emphasizing his toughness and wrestling. He notes Turner's danger in transitions and his ability to land fight-ending strikes, but believes Gamrot's pressure and scrambling will wear Turner down. He points out that Turner's takedown defense is inconsistent and that Gamrot's low single may bypass Turner's guillotine attempts.
Carlos Diego Ferreira - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Hernandez | 1 | 30 of 75 | 40% | 30 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 23 of 98 | 23% | 23 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 12 of 36 | 33% | 12 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 11 of 53 | 20% | 11 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexander Hernandez | 1 | 18 of 39 | 46% | 18 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 12 of 45 | 26% | 12 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Hernandez | 30 of 75 | 40% | 22 of 63 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 20 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 14 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 23 of 98 | 23% | 8 of 56 | 11 of 35 | 4 of 7 | 23 of 96 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Hernandez | 12 of 36 | 33% | 7 of 28 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 11 of 53 | 20% | 3 of 29 | 6 of 19 | 2 of 5 | 11 of 51 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Hernandez | 18 of 39 | 46% | 15 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 14 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 12 of 45 | 26% | 5 of 27 | 5 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-140); Ferreira (+115)
Round 1
Jeff Rexroad is the referee. Ferreira takes the center of the cage in the early going. Hernandez is attacking with leg kicks. A solid jab lands for Hernandez. Ferreira catches a kick to the body and attempts to counter. Ferreira launches a big right hand and Hernandez circles away. A right hand makes Ferreira stumble briefly. Hernandez jabs and Ferreira lands a body kick. Another jab for Hernandez. Ferreira lands a body kick. Lots of movement for Hernandez which is making it difficult for Ferreria to find his range. A front kick to the body lands for Ferreira. They trade and Ferreira ends the exchange with a knee. A straight lands for Hernandez. Ferreira continues to walk Hernandez down. Ferreira lands a front kick to the body. A close opening round.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Round 2
Hernandez kicks the body. Ferreira catches and attempts to counter. He gets poked in the eye in the process and time is called. Ferreira doesn’t need much time to recover. A counter left lands clean for Ferreira in an exchnage. Ferreira lands a body kick as Hernandez moves forward. Ferreira just misses on a head kick. A solid right gets through for Hernandez. Ferreira blocks a hard body kick. Hernandez continues his movement based approach, but he’s not landing much. Another straight shot lands for Hernandez. A left hook and a body kick connect for Ferreira. Ferreirra presses forward and
Hernandez drops him with a perfectly-timed counter right hand to the temple. Smelling blood, Hernandez pounces and unleashes a hailstorm of violent ground-and-pound. Rexroad gives Ferreira plenty of leeway — perhaps too much — but after about eight unanswered punches, the fight is mercifully called.
That’s a resounding victory for the San Antonio native, who has won four consecutive Octagon appearances. Ferreira ends the fight with a nasty hematoma on the side of his head.
The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Diego Ferreira via TKO (Punches) R2 3:46
Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, noting he is hitting his stride lately, explosive, well-rounded, and a good athlete. He says this feels like a great fight for Hernandez, fighting an older guy at home (San Antonio). His only concern is that Hernandez cuts easily, which could affect judging. He says if the odds are reasonable, he will bet on him.
Big Brady leans toward Ferreira because Hernandez fades late in fights. He notes Hernandez is explosive early but has poor cardio and was put together on short notice. Ferreira is durable and has finished fights late. He predicts Ferreira wins by third-round knockout after weathering an early storm.
Connor picks Ferreira, emphasizing that Hernandez's inability to handle pressure will be exploited. He notes that Ferreira is a dangerous grappler and powerful striker, and Hernandez's wrestling won't be an easy out. Connor acknowledges Ferreira's age but says if not for age, he would pick Ferreira without question.
Hernandez is making a quick turnaround, but the host believes he is up against it. He expects Ferreira to stave off Hernandez's early power and explosivity, then wear him down with pace, pressure, and grappling, winning on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Carlos Diego Ferreira as an underdog, believing he will 'fraud check' Alexander Hernandez. He highlights Ferreira's win over Michael Johnson and competitive fights with Gamrot and Rebecki. He argues Hernandez struggles against veteran fighters and that Ferreira is a step above Hernandez's previous opponents. He predicts a second or third round TKO.
Zane picks Ferreira, citing his experience, aggressive inclination, and power. He notes that Hernandez is allergic to pressure and struggles when backed up, while Ferreira will pressure him. Zane acknowledges Ferreira's age (40) but believes his style and dangerous grappling will neutralize Hernandez's wrestling and force him into uncomfortable exchanges.
Angelo sees Ferreira as more dangerous and durable at this point, with more ways to win. He notes Green is a cleaner striker but Ferreira has power and BJJ. He is surprised Ferreira is almost a 2-to-1 favorite, as the fight feels closer on paper. He picks Ferreira but is not sure what to do with betting, possibly looking at the over 1.5 rounds.
Big Brady picks Diego Ferreira to win by first-round knockout. He is very worried about King Green's decline, citing the brutal Jalin Turner stoppage, his age (38), and poor recent performances. He notes Green has taken a lot of damage and doesn't look the same. In contrast, Ferreira is older but has less tread on the tires, barely fights, and still performs at a high level. He mentions Ferreira's power, citing knockouts of Michael Johnson and Mateusz Rębecki, and thinks he can finish Green by any method.
Connor picks Diego Ferreira, but with a sadness hedge. He notes that Green is conditioned to leave himself in vulnerable positions and is no longer as capable of surviving. He thinks Ferreira will be more willing to take chances to get in and make the fight ugly, and if Ferreira presses Green, he will get opportunities. However, he admits it's hard to pick and that his choice may be taking the wrong lessons from Green's recent losses.
The Guru picks Carlos Diego Ferreira to beat Bobby Green, citing Ferreira's underrated skills and power. He believes Green is prone to getting knocked out, especially in big spots, and that Ferreira can finish him. The Guru notes Ferreira's close split decision with Beneil Dariush and his knockout of Michael Johnson. He predicts Green will have a decent first round but then get caught in the second or third.
Zane picks Bobby Green, but with hesitation. He notes that Green has been getting stopped dramatically lately, but believes this is a fight Green can still win because Ferreira is not an instantaneous threat like Green's recent opponents. He thinks Green's striking technique and Ferreira's choppy path to the ground allow Green to navigate the fight, though he acknowledges it could be a classic Green loss where he outlands but loses a decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Dawson | 0 | 56 of 98 | 57% | 195 of 269 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 0 | 0 | 10:50 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 41 of 61 | 67% | 84 of 113 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grant Dawson | 0 | 21 of 31 | 67% | 43 of 54 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 3:11 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 11 of 16 | 68% | 27 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Grant Dawson | 0 | 21 of 39 | 53% | 64 of 90 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:44 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 17 of 28 | 60% | 29 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 | |
| 3 | Grant Dawson | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 88 of 125 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:55 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 13 of 17 | 76% | 28 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Dawson | 56 of 98 | 57% | 51 of 91 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 47 | 7 of 8 | 30 of 43 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 41 of 61 | 67% | 31 of 48 | 6 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 31 of 51 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grant Dawson | 21 of 31 | 67% | 19 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 18 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 8 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 11 of 16 | 68% | 5 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Grant Dawson | 21 of 39 | 53% | 21 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 21 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 17 of 28 | 60% | 15 of 24 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 23 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Grant Dawson | 14 of 28 | 50% | 11 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 14 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 13 of 17 | 76% | 11 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dawson (-258), Ferreira (+210)
Round 1
A generational gap separates the two lightweights about to set foot in the cage, with the fighters 10 years apart. Dawson (22-2-1, 10-1-1 UFC) is the far younger at 30, while Ferreira (19-5, 10-5 UFC) is the kind of guy who wants to get punched in the face for his 40th birthday. If he wins, one hopes that commentator Joe Rogan will urge the crowd to sing to him, but it is an uphill battle to get to that point. The third man in the Octagon for this fringe 155-pound contender pairing is referee Frank Trigg, who sits back as the fighters respectfully touch gloves. Dawson engages in assuming the center of the cage, and his first strike is a spinning back fist that buzzes past his foe. Ferreira moves to the side, aims a low kick, and chants for “USA” come down in support of Dawson. That excites him to the point of hurling a spinning wheel kick that partially lands, and he ignores any counter to spin and plant his foot on Ferreira’s ribcage. Dawson steps in with a right hand, and after connecting with a few punches, he spins with another back kick. Ferreira answers him with a surprisingly effective calf kick, and he goes to it again only to get caught with a pair of overhand rights. Ferreira returns fire with punches until Dawson shoots in on his hips and takes him to the canvas. Ferreira stands back up and leans against the fence, and he gets kneed legally in the face as he has his hands on the mat but no knees. Ferreira lowers himself to the ground to scramble and get up, and Dawson puts him in a precarious position by holding Ferreira’s leg in the air. With Ferreira leaned over and one hand on the ground, Dawson kicks him upside the head twice in what are now legal blows, and Ferreira panics and drops to the ground. Dawson looks to assume top control, and Ferreira hand-fights to keep Dawson from shifting around to take his back. When Ferreira turns to escape, Dawson follows him over and flattens him out while in full guard. Dawson bucks, sits up and drills the Brazilian with a solid left hand, before laying flat to smother. Ferreira pushes off to force Dawson to stand, and he belts “KGD” in the face with an upkick that appears to hurt him. Dawson lowers himself into the guard as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Round 2
The fighters bump fists to get going, and Ferreira leads the dance with a front kick. Ferreira follows it with a flurry of punches to get Dawson’s attention, and his forward momentum allows him to take Dawson off his feet. Ferreira attempts a leglock from a strange angle, and he attempts to take Dawson’s back but slides off. Dawson stands up and misses with a back fist, and the two walk towards one another and starting swinging heavy leather. Ferreira catches Dawson with a huge right hand, only to get taken off his feet with an easy takedown. Dawson postures up to strike, exerting full pressure on his foe while dragging things to a crawl. The audience responds in kind, not thrilled by the grind being embraced. When Ferreira sits up against the fence, Dawson sucks his hips out and lays into him with ground-and-pound. Dawson continues to force Ferreira flat on his back, unleashing strikes any time he can find an opening. When Ferreira raises his legs up for a possible choke attempt, Dawson pushes past it and smashes into the Brazilian with a crushing elbow. A second comes shortly thereafter, authoring a loud clacking sound from the elbow connecting with some face bone. The ground strikes continue as the round comes to an end.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Round 3
At the very first second of the round, Dawson rushes for a takedown. Ferreira fights off the first attempt, and he scrambles to set up an unorthodox leglock when Dawson drags him down. The submission is nowhere to be found, and Dawson rolls him over to his back and gets in the guard. Dawson beats down on Ferreira slowly and methodically, and suddenly, Trigg tells them to get back to their feet and stands them up without a warning. This lights a fire under Ferreira’s backside, who swings for the bleachers. Dawson does the same, and he sets Ferreira to a knee with a huge right hand. Dawson tackles Ferreira to the floor, and he gets right to it with body shots and the occasional one up to the head. Trigg almost immediately calls for more action, and Dawson proves this by posturing up to rain down heavy blows. Ferreira closes his guard and locks Dawson down in hopes of a standup, but Dawson pulls through it and starts pummeling the Brazilian with his fists. The audience is not happy about Dawson’s ground assault, and Dawson shuts them up for a moment by standing up and beating Ferreira down with high-amplitude punches. Dawson backs off Trigg by connecting with further firepower, and Ferreira manages to sit up but gives up his back. Dawson gladly takes it and wraps up the body triangle, his knees red and layers of skin ripped off from his takedown efforts. With seconds to spare, “KGD” attempts a rear-naked choke, but there is not enough time to wrap it up. Time elapses, and the fighters hug it out. This makes it five decisions in a row to start off this event.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (30-27 Dawson)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (30-27 Dawson)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (30-27 Dawson)
The Official Result
Grant Dawson def. Diego Ferreira via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Grant Dawson to win, expecting his relentless wrestling and control to be effective. However, he plans to bet on Diego Ferreira via 'inside the distance decision no action' prop, believing Ferreira is tough enough to avoid being finished and could potentially finish Dawson. He acknowledges Dawson's boring style but respects his wrestling.
Cody picks Grant Dawson but is hesitant. He acknowledges Dawson's excellent wrestling and cardio, but notes his chin has been exposed (Bobby Green KO, Ricky Glenn draw). Dawson has taken down strong wrestlers like Mark Madsen and Ismagulov. Ferreira is a dangerous striker and BJJ black belt who has been taken down many times but often survives. Cody believes Dawson's wrestling will be the difference, but Ferreira's power and submission threat make it risky. He moves Dawson down in his parlay.
Daniel picks Ferreira, citing his elite Jiu-Jitsu and striking advantage. He notes that Dawson is one-dimensional and has been knocked out before. Daniel is concerned about Ferreira's age (40) but thinks his ground game and striking are superior. He mentions that Dawson's losses are exciting because he gets knocked out, and Ferreira could exploit Dawson's holes.
The host points out Ferreira turns 40 on fight day and expects him to show decline. Dawson is a streaking contender who should implement his wrestling, break down Ferreira, and finish him in the second or third round.
Paul picks Ferreira as an underdog. He notes that Ferreira is a more refined striker with knockout power and a BJJ black belt, giving him multiple paths to victory. Paul points out that Dawson has been knocked out and has cardio issues in later rounds. Ferreira has shown he can survive takedowns and submit opponents. Paul believes Ferreira's chaotic striking and opportunistic submissions will cause problems for Dawson, and at plus money, he sees value.
The MMA Guru picks Carlos Diego Ferreira over Grant Dawson. He highlights Ferreira's scrambling ability against elite grapplers like Gamrot and Dariush, and his power in his hands with nasty knockout ability. He notes Ferreira's recent momentum, including a win over Rebecki and a knockout of Michael Johnson. He worries about Dawson if he can't get his grappling going, and believes Ferreira will win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 123 of 241 | 51% | 151 of 272 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:12 |
| Mateusz Rębecki | 1 | 52 of 137 | 37% | 60 of 146 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 2:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 21 of 65 | 32% | 28 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mateusz Rębecki | 1 | 30 of 60 | 50% | 35 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:16 | |
| 2 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 40 of 79 | 50% | 49 of 88 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Mateusz Rębecki | 0 | 16 of 48 | 33% | 19 of 51 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 3 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 62 of 97 | 63% | 74 of 111 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
| Mateusz Rębecki | 0 | 6 of 29 | 20% | 6 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 123 of 241 | 51% | 94 of 189 | 28 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 94 of 203 | 0 of 1 | 29 of 37 |
| Mateusz Rębecki | 52 of 137 | 37% | 34 of 109 | 11 of 21 | 7 of 7 | 46 of 129 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 21 of 65 | 32% | 15 of 51 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mateusz Rębecki | 30 of 60 | 50% | 21 of 51 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 | |
| 2 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 40 of 79 | 50% | 31 of 61 | 8 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 38 of 77 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Mateusz Rębecki | 16 of 48 | 33% | 12 of 39 | 1 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 62 of 97 | 63% | 48 of 77 | 14 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 35 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 35 |
| Mateusz Rębecki | 6 of 29 | 20% | 1 of 19 | 3 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rebecki (-310), Ferreira (+250)
Round 1
Momentum is a powerful tool. Once on a solid six-fight win streak, Ferreira (18-5, 9-5 UFC) has since dropped three of four and now stares down his 40th birthday at the beginning of next year. Eight years younger and with his own 16-fight victorious stretch in tow, Rebecki (19-1, 3-0 UFC) has it going for him. Whether the torch is passed or the older man can get it done, referee Gary Copeland will keep tabs on the lightweight contest. The sportsmen gladly bump their fists together in eager anticipation of inflicting bodily harm on one another. Rebecki surges forward immediately, throwing caution to the wind swinging fists. Ferreira stays composed and prods out with front kicks, and he dips away from the power shots that fly past him. Rebecki continues attacking relentlessly, and he knocks Ferreira to his seat momentarily courtesy of fierce right hand. The Brazilian jumps right back up, and he keeps Rebecki honest with front kicks and a solid body kick. Ferreira lands with a left and a right, and a head kick gets Rebecki’s attention. He throws another high kick, and Rebecki crowds him more. Ferreira sneaks in a left hand as Rebecki walks forward with impunity, only to be met with three flush shots on the jaw. Rebecki strings three punches together, and Ferreira attacks the body with his foot. Ferreira comes up short on a head kick, and Rebecki buzzes his hair with an overhand right. The two take turns blasting one another, and Rebecki gets the better of an exchange with a solid right hand that appears to hurt the Brazilian. Ferreira fires back with bad intentions, and his head kick comes increasingly close to landing cleanly. Rebecki jabs his way into offense, and Ferreira answers them with a heavy body kick that makes Rebecki shake his head. Rebecki leans forward and when he attacks, his head smacks into Ferreira’s. Ferreira wipes his head, and Copeland notes the head clash. Rebecki unloads a left hand that knocks Ferreira clean off his feet, and he dives down into the guard in hopes of finishing the job. Rebecki gets slowed down by the active guard of his opponent, and he cannot pass guard or land much of note while Ferreira clears his head. The round ends with Rebecki on top.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Round 2
The fighters tap hands together to open the round, and Rebecki says hello with a body kick and a powerful left hand. Ferreira drops to the mat, and he bounces back up and stings Rebecki with a left hook of his own. The Polish fighter has a foot bounce off the cup when kicking, and he apologizes as Ferreira signals he is ok. Rebecki ducks a right hand and shoots with a double, driving through the hips and putting Ferreira on his back. Ferreira hits the mat and threatens with a triangle choke, and his legs allow him to sweep and throw Rebecki off of him. Rebecki loads up on a big left hand that misses the mark, and Ferreira follows him with three punches up top while Rebecki’s eyes are swelling up fast. Ferreira jabs and absorbs a left hand on the nose that makes him tweak it to check if it is damaged. Rebecki lurches forward with a series of rangy punches, and he gets backed off as a high kick whizzes past his head. Rebecki bulldozes forward in pursuit of a takedown, and he manages to put the Brazilian on his seat for a moment. Ferreira climbs back up and works his jab, and he slips the most dangerous blows coming at him so that he can counter with three of his own. Ferreira flicks out jabs and a head kick, and he backs the Polish fighter off with body shots chained into punches in the head. The jab has split open the side of Rebecki’s eye, and Ferreira releases a number of punches to the swelling and bloody face. Copeland calls time and brings in the doctor, and Rebecki is cleared quickly and gets back to it. Ferreira drills his man in the head with a combination of punches ending with a head kick, and Rebecki catches it and tackles Ferriera to the floor. Ferreira scrambles to work his way up, and he turns the tables and drags Rebecki down from behind. The Brazilian climbs into full mount and he sits down on an arm-triangle choke, but time expires before he can get the tap.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Round 3
The lightweights touch ‘em up to begin, and Ferreira leads the dance with a few punches up top and a front kick. Rebecki swings back, and Ferreira is the fresher and more accurate man of the two as he lands cleaner. Ferreira looks for his jab and kicks the body, and he checks Rebecki’s chin with a one-two. Ferreira powers ahead with another short combo, and he lines up several head kicks that get blocked but have an impact. Rebecki loads up on a left hand, and Ferreira stands firm and lets him have it with a swarm of punches that stagger him. Rebecki takes a breath and kicks the lead leg, and he gets driven back with a straight right hand. Ferreira times Rebecki ducking down for a level change with an uppercut, and he chews up the midsection with power shots. Ferreira walks through power punches from the Polish fighter, and he gets taken down and turns the corner to stand back up. Ferreira goes after Rebecki’s leg to sweep him and turn him over, and he finds his way on top and slides straight into mount. Ferreira bombards Rebecki with punches and elbows, and Rebecki twists and turns in any effort to escape. Ferreira sits on him awkwardly and works Rebecki over with his fists, until Rebecki muscles his way to his knees. Ferreira drags his man down and moves back to mount, and he gets going with a number of elbows as Copeland is watching closely. Copeland asks for Rebecki to fight back, and Rebecki sits up to protect himself from further damage. Rebecki somehow slides out the back door, and both men get back to their feet with a little under a minute to go. Ferreira jabs the body with a kick, and he continues to aim strikes to the midsection. Ferreira knocks Rebecki to the wall with a one-two, and he shoots for an easy takedown and throws Rebecki to the mat so he can hop into mount.
Ferreira postures up and drills Rebecki with punches and hammerfists. Ferreira keeps striking, sensing the finish might be right around the corner, and Copeland waves the fight off to save Rebecki from any further harm.
The Polish fighter’s long win streak is now a thing of the past, and the shellacking from “CDF” has made him nearly unrecognizable. This is a mighty comeback performance for the 39-year-old, who survived a tough first round and put away a man that came into this bout the winner of his last 16.
The Official Result
Diego Ferreira def. Mateusz Rebecki R3 4:51 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Mateusz Rębecki confidently, citing his relentless grappling, power, and cardio. He notes Rębecki marches forward, throws heavy punches, and dives at legs for takedowns. He acknowledges Diego Ferreira's BJJ and power but believes Rębecki is durable enough to eat a big shot and impose his wrestling. He expects the line to move further in Rębecki's favor.
Big Brady picks Mateusz Rębecki to break down Carlos Diego Ferreira and finish him in the third round by knockout. He notes that Ferreira is 39 years old and past his prime, while Rębecki is well-rounded with good striking, power, wrestling, and submission game. He struggles to see a path to victory for Ferreira, as Rębecki can dictate where the fight takes place and has vicious striking.
Cody picks Rębecki, highlighting his youth, wrestling, and well-rounded game. He notes that Ferreira has a clear path to victory for opponents: wrestle him, tire him out, and avoid submissions. Cody points out that Ferreira has lost to wrestlers like Gamrot, Gillespie, and Dariush, and at 39 with a layoff, he is vulnerable. Rębecki is a strong Polish grappler who should follow the same blueprint. Cody also mentions that Rębecki's record is not fraudulent, as he has beaten quality opponents on the regional scene.
Daniel Vreeland picks Mateusz Rębecki, calling it an honorable passing of the torch. He respects Ferreira but believes Rębecki is a legitimate prospect who deserves the top 15 spot. He notes that Rębecki's only criticism came from his UFC debut where he dominated but had one moment of adversity, which he thinks is overblown.
The host confidently picks Rębecki due to his pressure, pace, and grappling, expecting him to overwhelm the 39-year-old Ferreira. He notes Ferreira's power and BJJ but believes Rębecki's youth and strength will be decisive. He predicts a decision win for Rębecki, as Ferreira should show enough resistance to avoid a finish. The pick is confident, though he acknowledges this is Rębecki's toughest test.
Paul picks Rębecki, agreeing with Cody that Ferreira's losses have come against top-tier wrestlers. He notes that Ferreira is a tough test but Rębecki is a finished product ready to contend. Paul mentions that Rębecki is a BJJ black belt and should be able to handle Ferreira's ground game. He expects Rębecki to win but notes the line is accurate with little value.
The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Rębecki over Carlos Diego Ferreira, calling Rębecki a 'tank' and 'Bruiser.' He highlights Rębecki's wrestling and ability to ragdoll opponents, referencing his win over Loik Radzhabov. He acknowledges Ferreira is a tricky test but believes Rębecki is a class above as a prospect.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 1 | 30 of 71 | 42% | 30 of 71 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 32 of 58 | 55% | 32 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 24 of 55 | 43% | 24 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 27 of 46 | 58% | 27 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 1 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 30 of 71 | 42% | 17 of 46 | 10 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 29 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michael Johnson | 32 of 58 | 55% | 13 of 34 | 17 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 32 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 24 of 55 | 43% | 13 of 37 | 8 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 27 of 46 | 58% | 12 of 29 | 13 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 27 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 6 of 16 | 37% | 4 of 9 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michael Johnson | 5 of 12 | 41% | 1 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Michael Johnson as an underdog, arguing that Johnson is the younger fighter (36 vs 38) and has fought tougher competition. He believes Johnson is the better striker with solid takedown defense and BJJ defense, and that Ferreira's three-fight skid is misleading because he lost to elite grapplers. He expects a close fight but favors Johnson's experience and IQ.
Big Brady picks Michael Johnson to win by decision as an underdog. He notes Johnson has good takedown defense and should be able to keep the fight standing, where he is the better striker. He is concerned about Ferreira's long layoff and age (38), and believes Johnson can outpoint him. However, he admits trusting Johnson with money is something he hasn't done in a long time.
Cody acknowledges Ferreira's grappling advantage and past success, but is concerned about his age (38), year-and-a-half layoff, and three-fight losing streak. He thinks Ferreira can win if he uses his wrestling, but is not confident given the unknowns.
Connor also picks Ferreira, agreeing that his grappling pressure will be too much for Johnson. He notes that Johnson has become a more measured fighter but still struggles against grapplers who go for finishes on the ground. He points out that even Mark Diakiese, who doesn't match Ferreira's style, was able to shut out Johnson by stifling his takedown attempts, but Ferreira's scrambling ability makes him a different threat.
Daniel Levi picks Carlos Diego Ferreira, but with low confidence. He acknowledges Ferreira's recent losses to elite grapplers (Dariush, Gillespie, Camara) and his year off, but thinks Ferreira's BJJ is a major threat. He notes Michael Johnson has a speed advantage but Ferreira is sneaky with his striking and can take the fight to the ground. Levi believes in their primes, Ferreira wins, but is unsure about Ferreira's current form and durability.
The host picks Michael Johnson, citing his superior technical striking and ability to counter Ferreira's pressure. He notes Johnson's takedown defense will be crucial; if he keeps the fight upright, he should outland Ferreira. He expects a decision win, given Ferreira's age and layoff.
Paul is also hesitant, citing Ferreira's layoff and age. He notes that Michael Johnson's recent opponents didn't test his grappling, but Ferreira's wrestling could be the difference. He picks Ferreira but is not confident and will wait for weigh-ins.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson as an underdog, believing he can KO Ferreira. He notes a massive speed difference on the feet and argues Johnson has faster hands than Poirier, who hit Ferreira with speed. He points to Johnson's improved takedown defense against Mark Madsen and his competitive fight with Jamie Mullarkey. He expects Ferreira to be hesitant on the feet after failing takedowns, leading to a KO for Johnson.
Zane picks Ferreira, citing the classic bad matchup for Michael Johnson: a relentless grappler who creates scrambles and submission threats. He acknowledges that Johnson has improved his takedown defense and become more disciplined, but Ferreira's ability to turn even failed takedowns into complicated exchanges will test Johnson's composure. He notes that Johnson has historically detonated when taken down, and Ferreira's style is exactly the kind that beats him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 36 of 101 | 35% | 37 of 104 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 25 of 58 | 43% | 31 of 67 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 18 of 56 | 32% | 19 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 14 of 31 | 45% | 20 of 39 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 18 of 45 | 40% | 18 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 11 of 28 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 36 of 101 | 35% | 18 of 69 | 12 of 23 | 6 of 9 | 35 of 98 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 25 of 58 | 43% | 15 of 46 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 22 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 18 of 56 | 32% | 7 of 34 | 5 of 13 | 6 of 9 | 17 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 14 of 31 | 45% | 7 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 18 of 45 | 40% | 11 of 35 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 11 of 27 | 40% | 8 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Angelo is very confident in Mateusz Gamrot, placing 3 units on him at -200. He believes Gamrot should be -350 or -400, as he can win striking exchanges and dominate the wrestling. Angelo notes that Ferreira is a good BJJ player but Gamrot's top control is a big obstacle, and Ferreira would need to sweep to win. He thinks Gamrot's wrestling neutralizes Ferreira's jiu-jitsu and that Gamrot is a future champion.
Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot by decision, praising his well-rounded skills, cardio, and IQ. He notes Ferreira's age (36) and cardio concerns, but acknowledges Ferreira's dangerous BJJ and solid striking. He expects a competitive fight but believes Gamrot's volume and takedown mixing will earn him a decision win. He thinks the line is wider than the fight will be.
Cody is a Gamrot fan, calling him 'Polish GSP' for his well-rounded skills. He notes Gamrot's excellent cardio, striking, and grappling, and that he now trains at American Top Team. Cody sees a path to victory via smothering wrestling and pace, similar to how Beneil Dariush and Gregor Gillespie beat Ferreira. He acknowledges Ferreira's dangerous BJJ and crafty striking but thinks Gamrot's youth and cardio will be too much.
Daniel Levi leans toward Mateusz Gamrot but is not fully confident. He respects Ferreira's elite jiu-jitsu but notes Ferreira has struggled with cardio and weight cuts in recent fights, gassing against Gregor Gillespie and Beneil Dariush. Levi thinks Gamrot's wrestling and top control will be effective as the fight progresses, especially if Ferreira tires. He acknowledges Gamrot's unorthodox takedown style and solid chin, but is wary of Ferreira's submission threats early.
Jacob agrees with Angelo, calling Gamrot the real deal. He notes that Ferreira is a Fortis MMA guy who tends to fall back against top competition. Jacob believes Gamrot's patient, controlling wrestling will allow him to take Ferreira down and wait for an opportunity to finish. He thinks Gamrot will dominate from start to finish and possibly get an early finish.
The host picks Gamrot by decision, believing his chain wrestling and improved striking will allow him to outwork Ferreira. He notes that Ferreira is slowing down and Gamrot is on the rise. He likes the decision prop at +145.
Paul agrees with Gamrot, citing his five-round experience in KSW and his ability to keep a high pace. He notes that Ferreira has struggled against wrestlers with good cardio, as seen in the Gillespie fight. Paul thinks Gamrot should execute a wrestling-heavy game plan and grind Ferreira down, but he doesn't love the price.
The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot to win by second-round TKO. He notes Gamrot is well-rounded with good grappling, stand-up, cardio, and chin. He thinks Ferreira has slowed down recently and is 36 years old. He expects Gamrot to use feints and takedown threats to land a right hand, similar to the Holtzman fight. He sees Gamrot's power and speed being too much.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregor Gillespie | 0 | 31 of 60 | 51% | 37 of 70 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 2 | 1:06 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 45 of 62 | 72% | 53 of 70 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 5:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gregor Gillespie | 0 | 26 of 45 | 57% | 30 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:58 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 10 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 1:28 | |
| 2 | Gregor Gillespie | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 7 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:08 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 35 of 42 | 83% | 43 of 50 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregor Gillespie | 31 of 60 | 51% | 31 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 39 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 18 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 45 of 62 | 72% | 37 of 52 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 17 | 6 of 8 | 30 of 37 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gregor Gillespie | 26 of 45 | 57% | 26 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 18 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 10 of 20 | 50% | 5 of 13 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 13 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Gregor Gillespie | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 35 of 42 | 83% | 32 of 39 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 37 |
Big Brady believes Gillespie's wrestling will be the difference, as he averages 7.02 takedowns per 15 minutes with 47% accuracy. He notes Ferreira has 68% takedown defense and was taken down five times in his last fight. Brady thinks Gillespie will control the fight on the mat with top control and superior cardio, winning a decision. He is not worried about Ferreira's submission threat off his back, as Ferreira has only two UFC submissions. He says the moneyline at -175 is worth a look.
Daniel Levi picks Carlos Diego Ferreira, calling him the best jiu-jitsu guy in the division besides Oliveira and Dariush. He argues that Gillespie is overrated, citing his 50/50 fight with Jason Gonzalez and his loss to Kevin Lee. He believes Ferreira's jiu-jitsu will be too much for Gillespie, predicting a submission win. He notes Ferreira's ability to get back to his feet and his improved boxing, and thinks Gillespie will struggle to hold him down.
The MMA Guru picks Gregor Gillespie over Carlos Diego Ferreira, acknowledging it's a risky pick. He trusts Gillespie's wrestling style, which avoids being submitted by staying in body lock positions rather than full guard. He also notes Ferreira took the fight on short notice and Gillespie had a full camp, which benefits Gillespie. He predicts a unanimous decision win.
Expert Picks (8)
Angelo is very confident in Mateusz Gamrot, placing 3 units on him at -200. He believes Gamrot should be -350 or -400, as he can win striking exchanges and dominate the wrestling. Angelo notes that Ferreira is a good BJJ player but Gamrot's top control is a big obstacle, and Ferreira would need to sweep to win. He thinks Gamrot's wrestling neutralizes Ferreira's jiu-jitsu and that Gamrot is a future champion.
Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot by decision, praising his well-rounded skills, cardio, and IQ. He notes Ferreira's age (36) and cardio concerns, but acknowledges Ferreira's dangerous BJJ and solid striking. He expects a competitive fight but believes Gamrot's volume and takedown mixing will earn him a decision win. He thinks the line is wider than the fight will be.
Cody is a Gamrot fan, calling him 'Polish GSP' for his well-rounded skills. He notes Gamrot's excellent cardio, striking, and grappling, and that he now trains at American Top Team. Cody sees a path to victory via smothering wrestling and pace, similar to how Beneil Dariush and Gregor Gillespie beat Ferreira. He acknowledges Ferreira's dangerous BJJ and crafty striking but thinks Gamrot's youth and cardio will be too much.
Daniel Levi leans toward Mateusz Gamrot but is not fully confident. He respects Ferreira's elite jiu-jitsu but notes Ferreira has struggled with cardio and weight cuts in recent fights, gassing against Gregor Gillespie and Beneil Dariush. Levi thinks Gamrot's wrestling and top control will be effective as the fight progresses, especially if Ferreira tires. He acknowledges Gamrot's unorthodox takedown style and solid chin, but is wary of Ferreira's submission threats early.
Jacob agrees with Angelo, calling Gamrot the real deal. He notes that Ferreira is a Fortis MMA guy who tends to fall back against top competition. Jacob believes Gamrot's patient, controlling wrestling will allow him to take Ferreira down and wait for an opportunity to finish. He thinks Gamrot will dominate from start to finish and possibly get an early finish.
The host picks Gamrot by decision, believing his chain wrestling and improved striking will allow him to outwork Ferreira. He notes that Ferreira is slowing down and Gamrot is on the rise. He likes the decision prop at +145.
Paul agrees with Gamrot, citing his five-round experience in KSW and his ability to keep a high pace. He notes that Ferreira has struggled against wrestlers with good cardio, as seen in the Gillespie fight. Paul thinks Gamrot should execute a wrestling-heavy game plan and grind Ferreira down, but he doesn't love the price.
The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot to win by second-round TKO. He notes Gamrot is well-rounded with good grappling, stand-up, cardio, and chin. He thinks Ferreira has slowed down recently and is 36 years old. He expects Gamrot to use feints and takedown threats to land a right hand, similar to the Holtzman fight. He sees Gamrot's power and speed being too much.
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